A Research Methodology for Studying What Makes Some Problems Difficult to Solve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gulacar, Ozcan; Fynewever, Herb

2010-01-01

We present a quantitative model for predicting the level of difficulty subjects will experience with specific problems. The model explicitly accounts for the number of subproblems a problem can be broken into and the difficultly of each subproblem. Although the model builds on previously published models, it is uniquely suited for blending with…

Colonic stem cell data are consistent with the immortal model of stem cell division under non-random strand segregation.

PubMed

Walters, K

2009-06-01

Colonic stem cells are thought to reside towards the base of crypts of the colon, but their numbers and proliferation mechanisms are not well characterized. A defining property of stem cells is that they are able to divide asymmetrically, but it is not known whether they always divide asymmetrically (immortal model) or whether there are occasional symmetrical divisions (stochastic model). By measuring diversity of methylation patterns in colon crypt samples, a recent study found evidence in favour of the stochastic model, assuming random segregation of stem cell DNA strands during cell division. Here, the effect of preferential segregation of the template strand is considered to be consistent with the 'immortal strand hypothesis', and explore the effect on conclusions of previously published results. For a sample of crypts, it is shown how, under the immortal model, to calculate mean and variance of the number of unique methylation patterns allowing for non-random strand segregation and compare them with those observed. The calculated mean and variance are consistent with an immortal model that incorporates non-random strand segregation for a range of stem cell numbers and levels of preferential strand segregation. Allowing for preferential strand segregation considerably alters previously published conclusions relating to stem cell numbers and turnover mechanisms. Evidence in favour of the stochastic model may not be as strong as previously thought.

Estimation of Anaerobic Debromination Rate Constants of PBDE Pathways Using an Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model.

PubMed

Karakas, Filiz; Imamoglu, Ipek

2017-04-01

This study aims to estimate anaerobic debromination rate constants (k m ) of PBDE pathways using previously reported laboratory soil data. k m values of pathways are estimated by modifying a previously developed model as Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model. Debromination activities published in the literature in terms of bromine substitutions as well as specific microorganisms and their combinations are used for identification of pathways. The range of estimated k m values is between 0.0003 and 0.0241 d -1 . The median and maximum of k m values are found to be comparable to the few available biologically confirmed rate constants published in the literature. The estimated k m values can be used as input to numerical fate and transport models for a better and more detailed investigation of the fate of individual PBDEs in contaminated sediments. Various remediation scenarios such as monitored natural attenuation or bioremediation with bioaugmentation can be handled in a more quantitative manner with the help of k m estimated in this study.

Parameterizing sorption isotherms using a hybrid global-local fitting procedure.

PubMed

Matott, L Shawn; Singh, Anshuman; Rabideau, Alan J

2017-05-01

Predictive modeling of the transport and remediation of groundwater contaminants requires an accurate description of the sorption process, which is usually provided by fitting an isotherm model to site-specific laboratory data. Commonly used calibration procedures, listed in order of increasing sophistication, include: trial-and-error, linearization, non-linear regression, global search, and hybrid global-local search. Given the considerable variability in fitting procedures applied in published isotherm studies, we investigated the importance of algorithm selection through a series of numerical experiments involving 13 previously published sorption datasets. These datasets, considered representative of state-of-the-art for isotherm experiments, had been previously analyzed using trial-and-error, linearization, or non-linear regression methods. The isotherm expressions were re-fit using a 3-stage hybrid global-local search procedure (i.e. global search using particle swarm optimization followed by Powell's derivative free local search method and Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg non-linear regression). The re-fitted expressions were then compared to previously published fits in terms of the optimized weighted sum of squared residuals (WSSR) fitness function, the final estimated parameters, and the influence on contaminant transport predictions - where easily computed concentration-dependent contaminant retardation factors served as a surrogate measure of likely transport behavior. Results suggest that many of the previously published calibrated isotherm parameter sets were local minima. In some cases, the updated hybrid global-local search yielded order-of-magnitude reductions in the fitness function. In particular, of the candidate isotherms, the Polanyi-type models were most likely to benefit from the use of the hybrid fitting procedure. In some cases, improvements in fitness function were associated with slight (<10%) changes in parameter values, but in other cases significant (>50%) changes in parameter values were noted. Despite these differences, the influence of isotherm misspecification on contaminant transport predictions was quite variable and difficult to predict from inspection of the isotherms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computer modeling of obesity links theoretical energetic measures with experimental measures of fuel use for lean and obese men.

PubMed

Rossow, Heidi A; Calvert, C Chris

2014-10-01

The goal of this research was to use a computational model of human metabolism to predict energy metabolism for lean and obese men. The model is composed of 6 state variables representing amino acids, muscle protein, visceral protein, glucose, triglycerides, and fatty acids (FAs). Differential equations represent carbohydrate, amino acid, and FA uptake and output by tissues based on ATP creation and use for both lean and obese men. Model parameterization is based on data from previous studies. Results from sensitivity analyses indicate that model predictions of resting energy expenditure (REE) and respiratory quotient (RQ) are dependent on FA and glucose oxidation rates with the highest sensitivity coefficients (0.6, 0.8 and 0.43, 0.15, respectively, for lean and obese models). Metabolizable energy (ME) is influenced by ingested energy intake with a sensitivity coefficient of 0.98, and a phosphate-to-oxygen ratio by FA oxidation rate and amino acid oxidation rate (0.32, 0.24 and 0.55, 0.65 for lean and obese models, respectively). Simulations of previously published studies showed that the model is able to predict ME ranging from 6.6 to 9.3 with 0% differences between published and model values, and RQ ranging from 0.79 to 0.86 with 1% differences between published and model values. REEs >7 MJ/d are predicted with 6% differences between published and model values. Glucose oxidation increases by ∼0.59 mol/d, RQ increases by 0.03, REE increases by 2 MJ/d, and heat production increases by 1.8 MJ/d in the obese model compared with lean model simulations. Increased FA oxidation results in higher changes in RQ and lower relative changes in REE. These results suggest that because fat mass is directly related to REE and rate of FA oxidation, body fat content could be used as a predictor of RQ. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

An Experimentally Robust Model of Monomeric Apolipoprotein A-I Created from a Chimera of Two X-ray Structures and Molecular Dynamics Simulations

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

High-density lipoprotein (HDL) retards atherosclerosis by accepting cholesterol from the artery wall. However, the structure of the proposed acceptor, monomeric apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I), the major protein of HDL, is poorly understood. Two published models for monomeric apoA-I used cross-linking distance constraints to derive best fit conformations. This approach has limitations. (i) Cross-linked peptides provide no information about secondary structure. (ii) A protein chain can be folded in multiple ways to create a best fit. (iii) Ad hoc folding of a secondary structure is unlikely to produce a stable orientation of hydrophobic and hydrophilic residues. To address these limitations, we used a different approach. We first noted that the dimeric apoA-I crystal structure, (Δ185–243)apoA-I, is topologically identical to a monomer in which helix 5 forms a helical hairpin, a monomer with a hydrophobic cleft running the length of the molecule. We then realized that a second crystal structure, (Δ1–43)apoA-I, contains a C-terminal structure that fits snuggly via aromatic and hydrophobic interactions into the hydrophobic cleft. Consequently, we combined these crystal structures into an initial model that was subjected to molecular dynamics simulations. We tested the initial and simulated models and the two previously published models in three ways: against two published data sets (domains predicted to be helical by H/D exchange and six spin-coupled residues) and against our own experimentally determined cross-linking distance constraints. We note that the best fit simulation model, superior by all tests to previously published models, has dynamic features of a molten globule with interesting implications for the functions of apoA-I. PMID:25423138

ELEMENT MASSES IN THE CRAB NEBULA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sibley, Adam R.; Katz, Andrea M.; Satterfield, Timothy J.

Using our previously published element abundance or mass-fraction distributions in the Crab Nebula, we derived actual mass distributions and estimates for overall nebular masses of hydrogen, helium, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and sulfur. As with the previous work, computations were carried out for photoionization models involving constant hydrogen density and also constant nuclear density. In addition, employing new flux measurements for [Ni ii]  λ 7378, along with combined photoionization models and analytic computations, a nickel abundance distribution was mapped and a nebular stable nickel mass estimate was derived.

Title: SCOAP3: Explanation and Current Status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsteller, Matthew

The Sponsoring Consortium for Open Access Publishing in Particle Physics (SCOAP3) is a successful global partnership of libraries, funding agencies and research centers. SCOAP3 has negotiated with journal publishers on behalf of libraries and institutions from around the world to produce open access literature in particle physics journals that were previously published in a traditional subscription-based model. This presentation will provide an overview of the process, an update of its status and some intriguing research metrics that have emerged.

REHABILITATION FOLLOWING KNEE DISLOCATION WITH LATERAL SIDE INJURY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE KNEE SYMMETRY MODEL

PubMed Central

Jenkins, Walter; Urch, Scott E.; Shelbourne, K. Donald

2010-01-01

Rehabilitation following lateral side knee ligament repair or reconstruction has traditionally utilized a conservative approach. An article outlining a new concept in rehabilitation following ACL reconstruction called the Knee Symmetry Model was recently published13. The Knee Symmetry Model can also be applied to rehabilitation of other knee pathologies including a knee dislocation with a lateral side injury. This Clinical Commentary describes the rehabilitation procedures used with patients who underwent surgery to repair lateral side ligaments, based upon the Knee Symmetry Model. These procedures were used previously to rehabilitate a group of patients with lateral side ligament repair as reported by Shelbourne et al10. Outcome data and subjective knee scores for these patients were recorded via the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) guidelines and modified Noyes survey scores and are summarized in this paper, as previously published. Rehabilitation following lateral side knee ligament repair using guidelines based upon the Knee Symmetry Model appears to provide patients with excellent long-term stability, normal ROM and strength, and a high level of function. PMID:21589671

Modelling of thermal stresses in bearing steel structure generated by electrical current impulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birjukovs, M.; Jakovics, A.; Holweger, W.

2018-05-01

This work is the study of one particular candidate for white etching crack (WEC) initiation mechanism in wind turbine gearbox bearings: discharge current impulses flowing through bearing steel with associated thermal stresses and material fatigue. Using data/results from previously published works, the authors develop a series of models that are utilized to simulate these processes under various conditions/local microstructure configurations, as well as to verify the results of the previous numerical studies. Presented models show that the resulting stresses are several orders of magnitude below the fatigue limit/yield strength for the parameters used herein. Results and analysis of models provided by Scepanskis, M. et al. also indicate that certain effects predicted in their previous work resulted from a physically unfounded assumption about material thermodynamic properties and numerical model implementation issues.

Numerical Modeling of the Hall Thruster Discharge

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-04-01

This collection of seven previously published papers performed under Grant No. FA8655-04-1-3003 provide the background for the development of a new version of the HPHall hybrid code (HPHallv.2) for the numerical modeling of Hall Thruster discharge and new insights on discharge physics obtained during the development.

Data publication and dissemination of interactive keys under the open access model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The concepts of publication, citation and dissemination of interactive keys and other online keys are discussed and illustrated by a sample paper published in the present issue (doi: 10.3897/zookeys.21.271). The present model is based on previous experience with several existing examples of publishi...

Modeling the toxicokinetics of 24-hour toluene exposure in rats, impact of activity patterns and enzyme induction

EPA Science Inventory

Toluene, a solvent used in numerous consumer and industrial applications, exerts its critical effects on the brain and nervous system following inhalation exposure. Our previously published PBPK model successfully predicted toluene concentrations in blood and brain over a range o...

Improving the efficiency of a user-driven learning system with reconfigurable hardware. Application to DNA splicing.

PubMed

Lemoine, E; Merceron, D; Sallantin, J; Nguifo, E M

1999-01-01

This paper describes a new approach to problem solving by splitting up problem component parts between software and hardware. Our main idea arises from the combination of two previously published works. The first one proposed a conceptual environment of concept modelling in which the machine and the human expert interact. The second one reported an algorithm based on reconfigurable hardware system which outperforms any kind of previously published genetic data base scanning hardware or algorithms. Here we show how efficient the interaction between the machine and the expert is when the concept modelling is based on reconfigurable hardware system. Their cooperation is thus achieved with an real time interaction speed. The designed system has been partially applied to the recognition of primate splice junctions sites in genetic sequences.

Improvement of a mixture experiment model relating the component proportions to the size of nanonized itraconazole particles in extemporary suspensions

DOE PAGES

Pattarino, Franco; Piepel, Greg; Rinaldi, Maurizio

2018-03-03

A paper by Foglio Bonda et al. published previously in this journal (2016, Vol. 83, pp. 175–183) discussed the use of mixture experiment design and modeling methods to study how the proportions of three components in an extemporaneous oral suspension affected the mean diameter of drug particles (Z ave). The three components were itraconazole (ITZ), Tween 20 (TW20), and Methocel® E5 (E5). This commentary addresses some errors and other issues in the previous paper, and also discusses an improved model relating proportions of ITZ, TW20, and E5 to Z ave. The improved model contains six of the 10 terms inmore » the full-cubic mixture model, which were selected using a different cross-validation procedure than used in the previous paper. In conclusion, compared to the four-term model presented in the previous paper, the improved model fit the data better, had excellent cross-validation performance, and the predicted Z ave of a validation point was within model uncertainty of the measured value.« less

Improvement of a mixture experiment model relating the component proportions to the size of nanonized itraconazole particles in extemporary suspensions.

PubMed

Pattarino, Franco; Piepel, Greg; Rinaldi, Maurizio

2018-05-30

A paper by Foglio Bonda et al. published previously in this journal (2016, Vol. 83, pp. 175-183) discussed the use of mixture experiment design and modeling methods to study how the proportions of three components in an extemporaneous oral suspension affected the mean diameter of drug particles (Z ave ). The three components were itraconazole (ITZ), Tween 20 (TW20), and Methocel® E5 (E5). This commentary addresses some errors and other issues in the previous paper, and also discusses an improved model relating proportions of ITZ, TW20, and E5 to Z ave . The improved model contains six of the 10 terms in the full-cubic mixture model, which were selected using a different cross-validation procedure than used in the previous paper. Compared to the four-term model presented in the previous paper, the improved model fit the data better, had excellent cross-validation performance, and the predicted Z ave of a validation point was within model uncertainty of the measured value. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improvement of a mixture experiment model relating the component proportions to the size of nanonized itraconazole particles in extemporary suspensions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pattarino, Franco; Piepel, Greg; Rinaldi, Maurizio

A paper by Foglio Bonda et al. published previously in this journal (2016, Vol. 83, pp. 175–183) discussed the use of mixture experiment design and modeling methods to study how the proportions of three components in an extemporaneous oral suspension affected the mean diameter of drug particles (Z ave). The three components were itraconazole (ITZ), Tween 20 (TW20), and Methocel® E5 (E5). This commentary addresses some errors and other issues in the previous paper, and also discusses an improved model relating proportions of ITZ, TW20, and E5 to Z ave. The improved model contains six of the 10 terms inmore » the full-cubic mixture model, which were selected using a different cross-validation procedure than used in the previous paper. In conclusion, compared to the four-term model presented in the previous paper, the improved model fit the data better, had excellent cross-validation performance, and the predicted Z ave of a validation point was within model uncertainty of the measured value.« less

GPI Spectra of HR8799 C, D, and E in H-K Bands with KLIP Forward Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenbaum, Alexandra Z.; Pueyo, Laurent; Ruffio, Jean-Baptiste; Wang, Jason J.; De Rosa, Robert J.; Aguilar, Jonathan; Rameau, Julien; Barman, Travis; Marois, Christian; Marley, Mark S.;

Model documentation for relations between continuous real-time and discrete water-quality constituents in Cheney Reservoir near Cheney, Kansas, 2001--2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Mandy L.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Gatotho, Jackline W.

2013-01-01

Cheney Reservoir, located in south-central Kansas, is one of the primary water supplies for the city of Wichita, Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey has operated a continuous real-time water-quality monitoring station in Cheney Reservoir since 2001; continuously measured physicochemical properties include specific conductance, pH, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, fluorescence (wavelength range 650 to 700 nanometers; estimate of total chlorophyll), and reservoir elevation. Discrete water-quality samples were collected during 2001 through 2009 and analyzed for sediment, nutrients, taste-and-odor compounds, cyanotoxins, phytoplankton community composition, actinomycetes bacteria, and other water-quality measures. Regression models were developed to establish relations between discretely sampled constituent concentrations and continuously measured physicochemical properties to compute concentrations of constituents that are not easily measured in real time. The water-quality information in this report is important to the city of Wichita because it allows quantification and characterization of potential constituents of concern in Cheney Reservoir. This report updates linear regression models published in 2006 that were based on data collected during 2001 through 2003. The update uses discrete and continuous data collected during May 2001 through December 2009. Updated models to compute dissolved solids, sodium, chloride, and suspended solids were similar to previously published models. However, several other updated models changed substantially from previously published models. In addition to updating relations that were previously developed, models also were developed for four new constituents, including magnesium, dissolved phosphorus, actinomycetes bacteria, and the cyanotoxin microcystin. In addition, a conversion factor of 0.74 was established to convert the Yellow Springs Instruments (YSI) model 6026 turbidity sensor measurements to the newer YSI model 6136 sensor at the Cheney Reservoir site. Because a high percentage of geosmin and microcystin data were below analytical detection thresholds (censored data), multiple logistic regression was used to develop models that best explained the probability of geosmin and microcystin concentrations exceeding relevant thresholds. The geosmin and microcystin models are particularly important because geosmin is a taste-and-odor compound and microcystin is a cyanotoxin.

Cost Modeling for Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip

2011-01-01

Parametric cost models are an important tool for planning missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper presents on-going efforts to develop single variable and multi-variable cost models for space telescope optical telescope assembly (OTA). These models are based on data collected from historical space telescope missions. Standard statistical methods are used to derive CERs for OTA cost versus aperture diameter and mass. The results are compared with previously published models.

TRANSPORT, AIR-SURFACE EXCHANGE AND LANDSCAPE ACCUMULATION OF AIRBORNE POLLUTANTS DEPOSITED ONTO RURAL CATCHMENTS: THE CASE OF MERCURY

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a modeling analysis of airborne mercury fate in rural catchments by coupling components of simulation models developed and published previously by the authors. Results for individual rural catchments are presented and discussed, with a focus on the major mercu...

Social Cognitive Predictors of College Students' Academic Performance and Persistence: A Meta-Analytic Path Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Steven D.; Tramayne, Selena; Hoxha, Denada; Telander, Kyle; Fan, Xiaoyan; Lent, Robert W.

2008-01-01

This study tested Social Cognitive Career Theory's (SCCT) academic performance model using a two-stage approach that combined meta-analytic and structural equation modeling methodologies. Unbiased correlations obtained from a previously published meta-analysis [Robbins, S. B., Lauver, K., Le, H., Davis, D., & Langley, R. (2004). Do psychosocial…

An assessment of some theoretical models used for the calculation of the refractive index of InXGa1-xAs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelbrecht, J. A. A.

2018-04-01

Theoretical models used for the determination of the refractive index of InXGa1-XAs are reviewed and compared. Attention is drawn to some problems experienced with some of the models. Models also extended to the mid-infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum. Theoretical results in the mid-infrared region are then compared to previously published experimental results.

Dynamic flux balancing elucidates NAD(P)H production as limiting response to furfural inhibition in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

Pornkamol, Unrean; Franzen, Carl J

2015-08-01

Achieving efficient and economical lignocellulose-based bioprocess requires a robust organism tolerant to furfural, a major inhibitory compound present in lignocellulosic hydrolysate. The aim of this study was to develop a model that could generate quantitative descriptions of cell metabolism for elucidating the cell's adaptive response to furfural. Such a modelling tool could provide strategies for the design of more robust cells. A dynamic flux balance (dFBA) model of Saccharomyces cerevisiae was created by coupling a kinetic fermentation model with a previously published genome-scale stoichiometric model. The dFBA model was used for studying intracellular and extracellular flux responses to furfural perturbations under steady state and dynamic conditions. The predicted effects of furfural on dynamic flux profiles agreed well with previously published experimental results. The model showed that the yeast cell adjusts its metabolism in response to furfural challenge by increasing fluxes through the pentose phosphate pathway, TCA cycle, and proline and serine biosynthesis in order to meet the high demand of NAD(P)H cofactors. The model described here can be used to aid in systematic optimization of the yeast, as well as of the fermentation process, for efficient lignocellulosic ethanol production. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Inner Structure in the TW Hya Circumstellar Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akeson, Rachel L.; Millan-Gabet, R.; Ciardi, D.; Boden, A.; Sargent, A.; Monnier, J.; McAlister, H.; ten Brummelaar, T.; Sturmann, J.; Sturmann, L.; Turner, N.

2011-05-01

TW Hya is a nearby (50 pc) young stellar object with an estimated age of 10 Myr and signs of active accretion. Previous modeling of the circumstellar disk has shown that the inner disk contains optically thin material, placing this object in the class of "transition disks". We present new near-infrared interferometric observations of the disk material and use these data, as well as previously published, spatially resolved data at 10 microns and 7 mm, to constrain disk models based on a standard flared disk structure. Our model demonstrates that the constraints imposed by the spatially resolved data can be met with a physically plausible disk but this requires a disk containing not only an inner gap in the optically thick disk as previously suggested, but also some optically thick material within this gap. Our model is consistent with the suggestion by previous authors of a planet with an orbital radius of a few AU. This work was conducted at the NASA Exoplanet Science Institute, California Institute of Technology.

The space-dependent model and output characteristics of intra-cavity pumped dual-wavelength lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Jin-Qi; Dong, Yuan; Zhang, Feng-Dong; Yu, Yong-Ji; Jin, Guang-Yong; Liu, Li-Da

2016-01-01

The intra-cavity pumping scheme which is used to simultaneously generate dual-wavelength lasers was proposed and published by us and the space-independent model of quasi-three-level and four-level intra-cavity pumped dual-wavelength lasers was constructed based on this scheme. In this paper, to make the previous study more rigorous, the space-dependent model is adopted. As an example, the output characteristics of 946 nm and 1064 nm dual-wavelength lasers under the conditions of different output mirror transmittances are numerically simulated by using the derived formula and the results are nearly identical to what was previously reported.

Validation of risk stratification for children with febrile neutropenia in a pediatric oncology unit in India.

PubMed

Das, Anirban; Trehan, Amita; Oberoi, Sapna; Bansal, Deepak

2017-06-01

The study aims to validate a score predicting risk of complications in pediatric patients with chemotherapy-related febrile neutropenia (FN) and evaluate the performance of previously published models for risk stratification. Children diagnosed with cancer and presenting with FN were evaluated in a prospective single-center study. A score predicting the risk of complications, previously derived in the unit, was validated on a prospective cohort. Performance of six predictive models published from geographically distinct settings was assessed on the same cohort. Complications were observed in 109 (26.3%) of 414 episodes of FN over 15 months. A risk score based on undernutrition (two points), time from last chemotherapy (<7 days = two points), presence of a nonupper respiratory focus of infection (two points), C-reactive protein (>60 mg/l = five points), and absolute neutrophil count (<100 per μl = two points) was used to stratify patients into "low risk" (score <7, n = 208) and assessed using the following parameters: overall performance (Nagelkerke R 2 = 34.4%), calibration (calibration slope = 0.39; P = 0.25 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test), discrimination (c-statistic = 0.81), overall sensitivity (86%), negative predictive value (93%), and clinical net benefit (0.43). Six previously published rules demonstrated inferior performance in this cohort. An indigenous decision rule using five simple predefined variables was successful in identifying children at risk for complications. Prediction models derived in developed nations may not be appropriate for low-middle-income settings and need to be validated before use. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analysis of steady-state salt-water upconing with application at Truro well field, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reilly, T.E.; Frimpter, M.H.; LeBlanc, D.R.; Goodman, A.S.

1987-01-01

Sharp interface methods have been used successfully to describe the physics of upconing. A finite-element model is developed to simulate a sharp interface for determination of the steady-state position of the interface and maximum permissible well discharges. The model developed is compared to previous published electric-analog model results of Bennett and others (1968). -from Authors

MBA: Is the Traditional Model Doomed?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lataif, Louis E.; And Others

1992-01-01

Presents 13 commentaries on a previously published case study about the value of a Master's of Business Administration to employers today. Critiques center on the case study method, theory-practice gap, and value of practical experience and include international perspectives. (SK)

Tutoring at a Distance: Modelling as a Tool to Control Chaos

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertin, Jean-Claude; Narcy-Combes, Jean-Paul

2012-01-01

This article builds on a previous article published in 2007, which aimed at clarifying the concept of tutoring. Based on a new epistemological stance (emergentism) the authors will here show how the various components of the computer-assisted language learning situation form a complex chaotic system. They advocate that modelling is a way of…

A computational study of pyrolysis reactions of lignin model compounds

Treesearch

Thomas Elder

2010-01-01

Enthalpies of reaction for the initial steps in the pyrolysis of lignin have been evaluated at the CBS-4m level of theory using fully substituted b-O-4 dilignols. Values for competing unimolecular decomposition reactions are consistent with results previously published for phenethyl phenyl ether models, but with lowered selectivity. Chain propagating reactions of free...

A reexamination of age-related variation in body weight and morphometry of Maryland nutria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, M.H.; Mollett, T.A.; McGowan, K.R.; Daugherty, S.L.

2006-01-01

Age-related variation in morphometry has been documented for many species. Knowledge of growth patterns can be useful for modeling energetics, detecting physiological influences on populations, and predicting age. These benefits have shown value in understanding population dynamics of invasive species, particularly in developing efficient control and eradication programs. However, development and evaluation of descriptive and predictive models is a critical initial step in this process. Accordingly, we used data from necropsies of 1,544 nutria (Myocastor coypus) collected in Maryland, USA, to evaluate the accuracy of previously published models for prediction of nutria age from body weight. Published models underestimated body weights of our animals, especially for ages <3. We used cross-validation procedures to develop and evaluate models for describing nutria growth patterns and for predicting nutria age. We derived models from a randomly selected model-building data set (n = 192-193 M, 217-222 F) and evaluated them with the remaining animals (n = 487-488 M, 642-647 F). We used nonlinear regression to develop Gompertz growth-curve models relating morphometric variables to age. Predicted values of morphometric variables fell within the 95% confidence limits of their true values for most age classes. We also developed predictive models for estimating nutria age from morphometry, using linear regression of log-transformed age on morphometric variables. The evaluation data set corresponded with 95% prediction intervals from the new models. Predictive models for body weight and length provided greater accuracy and less bias than models for foot length and axillary girth. Our growth models accurately described age-related variation in nutria morphometry, and our predictive models provided accurate estimates of ages from morphometry that will be useful for live-captured individuals. Our models offer better accuracy and precision than previously published models, providing a capacity for modeling energetics and growth patterns of Maryland nutria as well as an empirical basis for determining population age structure from live-captured animals.

Combined PEST and Trial-Error approach to improve APEX calibration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), a physically-based hydrologic model that simulates management impacts on the environment for small watersheds, requires improved understanding of the input parameters for improved simulations. However, most previously published studies used the ...

75 FR 38168 - Federal Motor Vehicle Theft Prevention Standard; Final Listing of 2011 Light Duty Truck Lines...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-01

...The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) published a document in the Federal Register of June 21, 2010, announcing NHTSA's determination that there were no new model year (MY) 2011 light-duty truck lines subject to the requirements of the Federal motor vehicle theft prevention standard. The final rule also identified those vehicle lines that had been granted an exemption from the parts- marking requirements for the 2011 model year and those vehicle lines the agency removed because certain vehicle lines had been discontinued more than 5 years ago. This document corrects certain information published in the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section and Appendix A-I listing of the final rule. All previous information associated with the published notice remains the same.

Simulation optimization of PSA-threshold based prostate cancer screening policies

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jingyu; Denton, Brian T.; Shah, Nilay D.; Inman, Brant A.

2013-01-01

We describe a simulation optimization method to design PSA screening policies based on expected quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Our method integrates a simulation model in a genetic algorithm which uses a probabilistic method for selection of the best policy. We present computational results about the efficiency of our algorithm. The best policy generated by our algorithm is compared to previously recommended screening policies. Using the policies determined by our model, we present evidence that patients should be screened more aggressively but for a shorter length of time than previously published guidelines recommend. PMID:22302420

Thermodynamic characterization of tandem mismatches found in naturally occurring RNA

PubMed Central

Christiansen, Martha E.; Znosko, Brent M.

2009-01-01

Although all sequence symmetric tandem mismatches and some sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches have been thermodynamically characterized and a model has been proposed to predict the stability of previously unmeasured sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches [Christiansen,M.E. and Znosko,B.M. (2008) Biochemistry, 47, 4329–4336], experimental thermodynamic data for frequently occurring tandem mismatches is lacking. Since experimental data is preferred over a predictive model, the thermodynamic parameters for 25 frequently occurring tandem mismatches were determined. These new experimental values, on average, are 1.0 kcal/mol different from the values predicted for these mismatches using the previous model. The data for the sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches reported here were then combined with the data for 72 sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches that were published previously, and the parameters used to predict the thermodynamics of previously unmeasured sequence asymmetric tandem mismatches were updated. The average absolute difference between the measured values and the values predicted using these updated parameters is 0.5 kcal/mol. This updated model improves the prediction for tandem mismatches that were predicted rather poorly by the previous model. This new experimental data and updated predictive model allow for more accurate calculations of the free energy of RNA duplexes containing tandem mismatches, and, furthermore, should allow for improved prediction of secondary structure from sequence. PMID:19509311

Fuel thermal conductivity (FTHCON). Status report. [PWR; BWR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagrman, D. L.

1979-02-01

An improvement of the fuel thermal conductivity subcode is described which is part of the fuel rod behavior modeling task performed at EG and G Idaho, Inc. The original version was published in the Materials Properties (MATPRO) Handbook, Section A-2 (Fuel Thermal Conductivity). The improved version incorporates data which were not included in the previous work and omits some previously used data which are believed to come from cracked specimens. The models for the effect of porosity on thermal conductivity and for the electronic contribution to thermal coductivity have been completely revised in order to place these models on amore » more mechanistic basis. As a result of modeling improvements the standard error of the model with respect to its data base has been significantly reduced.« less

Factor Structure and Measurement Invariance of a 10-Item Decisional Balance Scale: Longitudinal and Subgroup Examination within an Adult Diabetic Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pickering, Michael A.; Plotnikoff, Ronald C.

2009-01-01

This study explores the longitudinal and subgroup measurement properties of a 10-item, physical activity decisional balance scale, previously published by Plotnikoff, Blanchard, Hotz, and Rhodes (2001), within a diabetic sample of Canadian adults. Results indicated that a three-factor measurement model consistently improved model fit compared to…

Bromamine Decomposition Revisited: A Holistic Approach for Analyzing Acid and Base Catalysis Kinetics.

PubMed

Wahman, David G; Speitel, Gerald E; Katz, Lynn E

2017-11-21

Chloramine chemistry is complex, with a variety of reactions occurring in series and parallel and many that are acid or base catalyzed, resulting in numerous rate constants. Bromide presence increases system complexity even further with possible bromamine and bromochloramine formation. Therefore, techniques for parameter estimation must address this complexity through thoughtful experimental design and robust data analysis approaches. The current research outlines a rational basis for constrained data fitting using Brønsted theory, application of the microscopic reversibility principle to reversible acid or base catalyzed reactions, and characterization of the relative significance of parallel reactions using fictive product tracking. This holistic approach was used on a comprehensive and well-documented data set for bromamine decomposition, allowing new interpretations of existing data by revealing that a previously published reaction scheme was not robust; it was not able to describe monobromamine or dibromamine decay outside of the conditions for which it was calibrated. The current research's simplified model (3 reactions, 17 constants) represented the experimental data better than the previously published model (4 reactions, 28 constants). A final model evaluation was conducted based on representative drinking water conditions to determine a minimal model (3 reactions, 8 constants) applicable for drinking water conditions.

The Elastic Behaviour of Sintered Metallic Fibre Networks: A Finite Element Study by Beam Theory

PubMed Central

Bosbach, Wolfram A.

2015-01-01

Background The finite element method has complimented research in the field of network mechanics in the past years in numerous studies about various materials. Numerical predictions and the planning efficiency of experimental procedures are two of the motivational aspects for these numerical studies. The widespread availability of high performance computing facilities has been the enabler for the simulation of sufficiently large systems. Objectives and Motivation In the present study, finite element models were built for sintered, metallic fibre networks and validated by previously published experimental stiffness measurements. The validated models were the basis for predictions about so far unknown properties. Materials and Methods The finite element models were built by transferring previously published skeletons of fibre networks into finite element models. Beam theory was applied as simplification method. Results and Conclusions The obtained material stiffness isn’t a constant but rather a function of variables such as sample size and boundary conditions. Beam theory offers an efficient finite element method for the simulated fibre networks. The experimental results can be approximated by the simulated systems. Two worthwhile aspects for future work will be the influence of size and shape and the mechanical interaction with matrix materials. PMID:26569603

THE EFFECTS OF NITROGEN LOADING AND FRESHWATER RESIDENCE TIME ON THE ESTUARINE ECOSYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

A simple mechanistic model, designed to predict annual average concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) concentrations from nitrogen inputs and freshwater residence time in estuaries, was applied to data for several North American estuaries from previously published literature. The ...

Ghosts in the Machine II: Neural Correlates of Memory Interference from the Previous Trial.

PubMed

Papadimitriou, Charalampos; White, Robert L; Snyder, Lawrence H

2017-04-01

Previous memoranda interfere with working memory. For example, spatial memories are biased toward locations memorized on the previous trial. We predicted, based on attractor network models of memory, that activity in the frontal eye fields (FEFs) encoding a previous target location can persist into the subsequent trial and that this ghost will then bias the readout of the current target. Contrary to this prediction, we find that FEF memory representations appear biased away from (not toward) the previous target location. The behavioral and neural data can be reconciled by a model in which receptive fields of memory neurons converge toward remembered locations, much as receptive fields converge toward attended locations. Convergence increases the resources available to encode the relevant memoranda and decreases overall error in the network, but the residual convergence from the previous trial can give rise to an attractive behavioral bias on the next trial. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: HARPS timeseries data for HD41248 (Jenkins+, 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, J. S.; Tuomi, M.

2017-05-01

We modeled the HARPS radial velocities of HD 42148 by adopting the analysis techniques and the statistical model applied in Tuomi et al. (2014, arXiv:1405.2016). This model contains Keplerian signals, a linear trend, a moving average component with exponential smoothing, and linear correlations with activity indices, namely, BIS, FWHM, and chromospheric activity S index. We applied our statistical model outlined above to the full data set of radial velocities for HD 41248, combining the previously published data in Jenkins et al. (2013ApJ...771...41J) with the newly published data in Santos et al. (2014, J/A+A/566/A35), giving rise to a total time series of 223 HARPS (Mayor et al. 2003Msngr.114...20M) velocities. (1 data file).

Modelling duodenum radiotherapy toxicity using cohort dose-volume-histogram data.

PubMed

Holyoake, Daniel L P; Aznar, Marianne; Mukherjee, Somnath; Partridge, Mike; Hawkins, Maria A

2017-06-01

Gastro-intestinal toxicity is dose-limiting in abdominal radiotherapy and correlated with duodenum dose-volume parameters. We aimed to derive updated NTCP model parameters using published data and prospective radiotherapy quality-assured cohort data. A systematic search identified publications providing duodenum dose-volume histogram (DVH) statistics for clinical studies of conventionally-fractionated radiotherapy. Values for the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) NTCP model were derived through sum-squared-error minimisation and using leave-one-out cross-validation. Data were corrected for fraction size and weighted according to patient numbers, and the model refined using individual patient DVH data for two further cohorts from prospective clinical trials. Six studies with published DVH data were utilised, and with individual patient data included outcomes for 531 patients in total (median follow-up 16months). Observed gastro-intestinal toxicity rates ranged from 0% to 14% (median 8%). LKB parameter values for unconstrained fit to published data were: n=0.070, m=0.46, TD 50(1) [Gy]=183.8, while the values for the model incorporating the individual patient data were n=0.193, m=0.51, TD 50(1) [Gy]=299.1. LKB parameters derived using published data are shown to be consistent to those previously obtained using individual patient data, supporting a small volume-effect and dependence on exposure to high threshold dose. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Method and Excel VBA Algorithm for Modeling Master Recession Curve Using Trigonometry Approach.

PubMed

Posavec, Kristijan; Giacopetti, Marco; Materazzi, Marco; Birk, Steffen

2017-11-01

A new method was developed and implemented into an Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBAs) algorithm utilizing trigonometry laws in an innovative way to overlap recession segments of time series and create master recession curves (MRCs). Based on a trigonometry approach, the algorithm horizontally translates succeeding recession segments of time series, placing their vertex, that is, the highest recorded value of each recession segment, directly onto the appropriate connection line defined by measurement points of a preceding recession segment. The new method and algorithm continues the development of methods and algorithms for the generation of MRC, where the first published method was based on a multiple linear/nonlinear regression model approach (Posavec et al. 2006). The newly developed trigonometry-based method was tested on real case study examples and compared with the previously published multiple linear/nonlinear regression model-based method. The results show that in some cases, that is, for some time series, the trigonometry-based method creates narrower overlaps of the recession segments, resulting in higher coefficients of determination R 2 , while in other cases the multiple linear/nonlinear regression model-based method remains superior. The Excel VBA algorithm for modeling MRC using the trigonometry approach is implemented into a spreadsheet tool (MRCTools v3.0 written by and available from Kristijan Posavec, Zagreb, Croatia) containing the previously published VBA algorithms for MRC generation and separation. All algorithms within the MRCTools v3.0 are open access and available free of charge, supporting the idea of running science on available, open, and free of charge software. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase IV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Crawford, Winifred C.

2012-01-01

As with the previous year, the past year of this award has been productive and a number of important results and refereed publications either submitted or published. Some of our research results are discussed here and a list the papers submitted or published in the past year is provided. Besides our original model of an outer heliosheath source for the IBEX "ribbon" we have continued to explore alternative possibilities and further our understanding of this very complex region, especially in light of the possibility raised by the IBEX results that suggest the possibility of a 1-shock model.

On the predictability of land surface fluxes from meteorological variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy J.

2018-01-01

Previous research has shown that land surface models (LSMs) are performing poorly when compared with relatively simple empirical models over a wide range of metrics and environments. Atmospheric driving data appear to provide information about land surface fluxes that LSMs are not fully utilising. Here, we further quantify the information available in the meteorological forcing data that are used by LSMs for predicting land surface fluxes, by interrogating FLUXNET data, and extending the benchmarking methodology used in previous experiments. We show that substantial performance improvement is possible for empirical models using meteorological data alone, with no explicit vegetation or soil properties, thus setting lower bounds on a priori expectations on LSM performance. The process also identifies key meteorological variables that provide predictive power. We provide an ensemble of empirical benchmarks that are simple to reproduce and provide a range of behaviours and predictive performance, acting as a baseline benchmark set for future studies. We reanalyse previously published LSM simulations and show that there is more diversity between LSMs than previously indicated, although it remains unclear why LSMs are broadly performing so much worse than simple empirical models.

A four-kallikrein panel for the prediction of repeat prostate biopsy: data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer screening in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

PubMed

Gupta, A; Roobol, M J; Savage, C J; Peltola, M; Pettersson, K; Scardino, P T; Vickers, A J; Schröder, F H; Lilja, H

2010-08-24

Most men with elevated levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) do not have prostate cancer, leading to a large number of unnecessary biopsies. A statistical model based on a panel of four kallikreins has been shown to predict the outcome of a first prostate biopsy. In this study, we apply the model to an independent data set of men with previous negative biopsy but persistently elevated PSA. The study cohort consisted of 925 men with a previous negative prostate biopsy and elevated PSA (>or=3 ng ml(-1)), with 110 prostate cancers detected (12%). A previously published statistical model was applied, with recalibration to reflect the lower positive biopsy rates on rebiopsy. The full-kallikrein panel had higher discriminative accuracy than PSA and DRE alone, with area under the curve (AUC) improving from 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52, 0.64) to 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.74), P<0.001, and high-grade cancer (Gleason >or=7) at biopsy with AUC improving from 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.89) to 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.94), P=0.003). Application of the panel to 1000 men with persistently elevated PSA after initial negative biopsy, at a 15% risk threshold would reduce the number of biopsies by 712; would miss (or delay) the diagnosis of 53 cancers, of which only 3 would be Gleason 7 and the rest Gleason 6 or less. Our data constitute an external validation of a previously published model. The four-kallikrein panel predicts the result of repeat prostate biopsy in men with elevated PSA while dramatically decreasing unnecessary biopsies.

Modeling the mechanical properties of DNA nanostructures.

PubMed

Arbona, Jean Michel; Aimé, Jean-Pierre; Elezgaray, Juan

2012-11-01

We discuss generalizations of a previously published coarse-grained description [Mergell et al., Phys. Rev. E 68, 021911 (2003)] of double stranded DNA (dsDNA). The model is defined at the base-pair level and includes the electrostatic repulsion between neighbor helices. We show that the model reproduces mechanical and elastic properties of several DNA nanostructures (DNA origamis). We also show that electrostatic interactions are necessary to reproduce atomic force microscopy measurements on planar DNA origamis.

External validation of the Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) to predict conversion from laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Hu, Alan Shiun Yew; Donohue, Peter O'; Gunnarsson, Ronny K; de Costa, Alan

2018-03-14

Valid and user-friendly prediction models for conversion to open cholecystectomy allow for proper planning prior to surgery. The Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) has been in use clinically in the original study site for the past three years, but has not been tested at other sites. A retrospective, single-centred study collected ultrasonic measurements and clinical variables alongside with conversion status from consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy from 2013 to 2016 in The Townsville Hospital, North Queensland, Australia. An area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to externally validate of the CPM. Conversion was necessary in 43 (4.2%) out of 1035 patients. External validation showed an area under the curve of 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.93, p = 1.1 × 10 -14 ). In comparison with most previously published models, which have an AUC of approximately 0.80 or less, the CPM has the highest AUC of all published prediction models both for internal and external validation. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computational Models for Calcium-Mediated Astrocyte Functions.

PubMed

Manninen, Tiina; Havela, Riikka; Linne, Marja-Leena

2018-01-01

The computational neuroscience field has heavily concentrated on the modeling of neuronal functions, largely ignoring other brain cells, including one type of glial cell, the astrocytes. Despite the short history of modeling astrocytic functions, we were delighted about the hundreds of models developed so far to study the role of astrocytes, most often in calcium dynamics, synchronization, information transfer, and plasticity in vitro , but also in vascular events, hyperexcitability, and homeostasis. Our goal here is to present the state-of-the-art in computational modeling of astrocytes in order to facilitate better understanding of the functions and dynamics of astrocytes in the brain. Due to the large number of models, we concentrated on a hundred models that include biophysical descriptions for calcium signaling and dynamics in astrocytes. We categorized the models into four groups: single astrocyte models, astrocyte network models, neuron-astrocyte synapse models, and neuron-astrocyte network models to ease their use in future modeling projects. We characterized the models based on which earlier models were used for building the models and which type of biological entities were described in the astrocyte models. Features of the models were compared and contrasted so that similarities and differences were more readily apparent. We discovered that most of the models were basically generated from a small set of previously published models with small variations. However, neither citations to all the previous models with similar core structure nor explanations of what was built on top of the previous models were provided, which made it possible, in some cases, to have the same models published several times without an explicit intention to make new predictions about the roles of astrocytes in brain functions. Furthermore, only a few of the models are available online which makes it difficult to reproduce the simulation results and further develop the models. Thus, we would like to emphasize that only via reproducible research are we able to build better computational models for astrocytes, which truly advance science. Our study is the first to characterize in detail the biophysical and biochemical mechanisms that have been modeled for astrocytes.

Computational Models for Calcium-Mediated Astrocyte Functions

PubMed Central

Manninen, Tiina; Havela, Riikka; Linne, Marja-Leena

2018-01-01

The computational neuroscience field has heavily concentrated on the modeling of neuronal functions, largely ignoring other brain cells, including one type of glial cell, the astrocytes. Despite the short history of modeling astrocytic functions, we were delighted about the hundreds of models developed so far to study the role of astrocytes, most often in calcium dynamics, synchronization, information transfer, and plasticity in vitro, but also in vascular events, hyperexcitability, and homeostasis. Our goal here is to present the state-of-the-art in computational modeling of astrocytes in order to facilitate better understanding of the functions and dynamics of astrocytes in the brain. Due to the large number of models, we concentrated on a hundred models that include biophysical descriptions for calcium signaling and dynamics in astrocytes. We categorized the models into four groups: single astrocyte models, astrocyte network models, neuron-astrocyte synapse models, and neuron-astrocyte network models to ease their use in future modeling projects. We characterized the models based on which earlier models were used for building the models and which type of biological entities were described in the astrocyte models. Features of the models were compared and contrasted so that similarities and differences were more readily apparent. We discovered that most of the models were basically generated from a small set of previously published models with small variations. However, neither citations to all the previous models with similar core structure nor explanations of what was built on top of the previous models were provided, which made it possible, in some cases, to have the same models published several times without an explicit intention to make new predictions about the roles of astrocytes in brain functions. Furthermore, only a few of the models are available online which makes it difficult to reproduce the simulation results and further develop the models. Thus, we would like to emphasize that only via reproducible research are we able to build better computational models for astrocytes, which truly advance science. Our study is the first to characterize in detail the biophysical and biochemical mechanisms that have been modeled for astrocytes. PMID:29670517

Predicting the chance of vaginal delivery after one cesarean section: validation and elaboration of a published prediction model.

PubMed

Fagerberg, Marie C; Maršál, Karel; Källén, Karin

2015-05-01

We aimed to validate a widely used US prediction model for vaginal birth after cesarean (Grobman et al. [8]) and modify it to suit Swedish conditions. Women having experienced one cesarean section and at least one subsequent delivery (n=49,472) in the Swedish Medical Birth Registry 1992-2011 were randomly divided into two data sets. In the development data set, variables associated with successful trial of labor were identified using multiple logistic regression. The predictive ability of the estimates previously published by Grobman et al., and of our modified and new estimates, respectively, was then evaluated using the validation data set. The accuracy of the models for prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. For maternal age, body mass index, prior vaginal delivery, and prior labor arrest, the odds ratio estimates for vaginal birth after cesarean were similar to those previously published. The prediction accuracy increased when information on indication for the previous cesarean section was added (from area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.69-0.71), and increased further when maternal height and delivery unit cesarean section rates were included (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.74). The correlation between the individual predicted vaginal birth after cesarean probability and the observed trial of labor success rate was high in all the respective predicted probability decentiles. Customization of prediction models for vaginal birth after cesarean is of considerable value. Choosing relevant indicators for a Swedish setting made it possible to achieve excellent prediction accuracy for success in trial of labor after cesarean. During the delicate process of counseling about preferred delivery mode after one cesarean section, considering the results of our study may facilitate the choice between a trial of labor or an elective repeat cesarean section. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling of the February 2014 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Release

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nasstrom, John; Piggott, Tom; Simpson, Matthew

2015-07-22

This report presents the results of a simulation of the atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radioactivity released from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) site in New Mexico in February 2014. These simulations were made by the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and supersede NARAC simulation results published in a previous WIPP report (WIPP, 2014). The results presented in this report use additional, more detailed data from WIPP on the specific radionuclides released, radioactivity release amounts and release times. Compared to the previous NARAC simulations, the new simulation results in this report aremore » based on more detailed modeling of the winds, turbulence, and particle dry deposition. In addition, the initial plume rise from the exhaust vent was considered in the new simulations, but not in the previous NARAC simulations. The new model results show some small differences compared to previous results, but do not change the conclusions in the WIPP (2014) report. Presented are the data and assumptions used in these model simulations, as well as the model-predicted dose and deposition on and near the WIPP site. A comparison of predicted and measured radionuclide-specific air concentrations is also presented.« less

Under One Cover. Maintaining Momentum: Implementing the Least Restrictive Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hasazi, Susan E., Ed.

The document provides a collection of 33 previously published articles on implementing special education services in the least restrictive environment. Articles are divided into five sections (models for delivery of special education services in the least restrictive environment, training of professionals, individualized education programs,…

Comparative recruitment dynamics of Alewife and Bloater in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Riley, Stephen C.

2014-01-01

The predictive power of recruitment models often relies on the identification and quantification of external variables, in addition to stock size. In theory, the identification of climatic, biotic, or demographic influences on reproductive success assists fisheries management by identifying factors that have a direct and reproducible influence on the population dynamics of a target species. More often, models are constructed as one-time studies of a single population whose results are not revisited when further data become available. Here, we present results from stock recruitment models for Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Bloater Coregonus hoyi in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The factors that explain variation in Bloater recruitment were remarkably consistent across populations and with previous studies that found Bloater recruitment to be linked to population demographic patterns in Lake Michigan. Conversely, our models were poor predictors of Alewife recruitment in Lake Huron but did show some agreement with previously published models from Lake Michigan. Overall, our results suggest that external predictors of fish recruitment are difficult to discern using traditional fisheries models, and reproducing the results from previous studies may be difficult particularly at low population sizes.

Quantitative comparison of ligament formulation and pre-strain in finite element analysis of the human lumbar spine.

PubMed

Hortin, Mitchell S; Bowden, Anton E

2016-11-01

Data has been published that quantifies the nonlinear, anisotropic material behaviour and pre-strain behaviour of the anterior longitudinal, supraspinous (SSL), and interspinous ligaments of the human lumbar spine. Additionally, data has been published on localized material properties of the SSL. These results have been incrementally incorporated into a previously validated finite element model of the human lumbar spine. Results suggest that the effects of increased ligament model fidelity on bone strain energy were moderate and the effects on disc pressure were slight, and do not justify a change in modelling strategy for most clinical applications. There were significant effects on the ligament stresses of the ligaments that were directly modified, suggesting that these phenomena should be included in FE models where ligament stresses are the desired metric.

ORCA Project: Research on high-performance parallel computer programming environments. Final report, 1 Apr-31 Mar 90

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snyder, L.; Notkin, D.; Adams, L.

1990-03-31

This task relates to research on programming massively parallel computers. Previous work on the Ensamble concept of programming was extended and investigation into nonshared memory models of parallel computation was undertaken. Previous work on the Ensamble concept defined a set of programming abstractions and was used to organize the programming task into three distinct levels; Composition of machine instruction, composition of processes, and composition of phases. It was applied to shared memory models of computations. During the present research period, these concepts were extended to nonshared memory models. During the present research period, one Ph D. thesis was completed, onemore » book chapter, and six conference proceedings were published.« less

Revised simulation model does not predict rebound in gonorrhoea prevalence where core groups are treated in the presence of antimicrobial resistance.

PubMed

Trecker, Molly A; Hogan, Daniel J; Waldner, Cheryl L; Dillon, Jo-Anne R; Osgood, Nathaniel D

2015-06-01

To determine the effects of using discrete versus continuous quantities of people in a compartmental model examining the contribution of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to rebound in the prevalence of gonorrhoea. A previously published transmission model was reconfigured to represent the occurrence of gonorrhoea in discrete persons, rather than allowing fractions of infected individuals during simulations. In the revised model, prevalence only rebounded under scenarios reproduced from the original paper when AMR occurrence was increased by 10(5) times. In such situations, treatment of high-risk individuals yielded outcomes very similar to those resulting from treatment of low-risk and intermediate-risk individuals. Otherwise, in contrast with the original model, prevalence was the lowest when the high-risk group was treated, supporting the current policy of targeting treatment to high-risk groups. Simulation models can be highly sensitive to structural features. Small differences in structure and parameters can substantially influence predicted outcomes and policy prescriptions, and must be carefully considered. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Population models and simulation methods: The case of the Spearman rank correlation.

PubMed

Astivia, Oscar L Olvera; Zumbo, Bruno D

2017-11-01

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of a population model in guiding the design and interpretation of simulation studies used to investigate the Spearman rank correlation. The Spearman rank correlation has been known for over a hundred years to applied researchers and methodologists alike and is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistics. Still, certain misconceptions can be found, either explicitly or implicitly, in the published literature because a population definition for this statistic is rarely discussed within the social and behavioural sciences. By relying on copula distribution theory, a population model is presented for the Spearman rank correlation, and its properties are explored both theoretically and in a simulation study. Through the use of the Iman-Conover algorithm (which allows the user to specify the rank correlation as a population parameter), simulation studies from previously published articles are explored, and it is found that many of the conclusions purported in them regarding the nature of the Spearman correlation would change if the data-generation mechanism better matched the simulation design. More specifically, issues such as small sample bias and lack of power of the t-test and r-to-z Fisher transformation disappear when the rank correlation is calculated from data sampled where the rank correlation is the population parameter. A proof for the consistency of the sample estimate of the rank correlation is shown as well as the flexibility of the copula model to encompass results previously published in the mathematical literature. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Mathematical modeling of energy metabolism and hemodynamics of WHO grade II gliomas using in vivo MR data.

PubMed

Guillevin, Rémy; Menuel, Carole; Vallée, Jean-Noël; Françoise, Jean-Pierre; Capelle, Laurent; Habas, Christophe; De Marco, Giovanni; Chiras, Jacques; Costalat, Robert

2011-01-01

Therapeutic management of low-grade gliomas (LGG) is a challenge because they have undergone anaplastic transformation with variable delay. Today, only progressive volume growth on successive MRI allows an in vivo monitoring of this evolution. On the other hand, multinuclear spectroscopy and perfusion available during MRI may also provide assessment of metabolic changes underlying morphological modifications. To overcome this drawback, we developed a mathematical model of the metabolism and the hemodynamic of gliomas, based on a physiological model previously published, and including the MR parameters. This allows us to suggest that some specific profiles of metabolic and hemodynamic changes would be good indicators of potential anaplastic transformation. Copyright © 2010 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Decision-Making Accuracy of CBM Progress-Monitoring Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hintze, John M.; Wells, Craig S.; Marcotte, Amanda M.; Solomon, Benjamin G.

2018-01-01

This study examined the diagnostic accuracy associated with decision making as is typically conducted with curriculum-based measurement (CBM) approaches to progress monitoring. Using previously published estimates of the standard errors of estimate associated with CBM, 20,000 progress-monitoring data sets were simulated to model student reading…

Computer simulated modeling of healthy and diseased right ventricular and pulmonary circulation.

PubMed

Chou, Jody; Rinehart, Joseph B

2018-01-12

We have previously developed a simulated cardiovascular physiology model for in-silico testing and validation of novel closed-loop controllers. To date, a detailed model of the right heart and pulmonary circulation was not needed, as previous controllers were not intended for use in patients with cardiac or pulmonary pathology. With new development of controllers for vasopressors, and looking forward, for combined vasopressor-fluid controllers, modeling of right-sided and pulmonary pathology is now relevant to further in-silico validation, so we aimed to expand our existing simulation platform to include these elements. Our hypothesis was that the completed platform could be tuned and stabilized such that the distributions of a randomized sample of simulated patients' baseline characteristics would be similar to reported population values. Our secondary outcomes were to further test the system in representing acute right heart failure and pulmonary artery hypertension. After development and tuning of the right-sided circulation, the model was validated against clinical data from multiple previously published articles. The model was considered 'tuned' when 100% of generated randomized patients converged to stability (steady, physiologically-plausible compartmental volumes, flows, and pressures) and 'valid' when the means for the model data in each health condition were contained within the standard deviations for the published data for the condition. A fully described right heart and pulmonary circulation model including non-linear pressure/volume relationships and pressure dependent flows was created over a 6-month span. The model was successfully tuned such that 100% of simulated patients converged into a steady state within 30 s. Simulation results in the healthy state for central venous volume (3350 ± 132 ml) pulmonary blood volume (405 ± 39 ml), pulmonary artery pressures (systolic 20.8 ± 4.1 mmHg and diastolic 9.4 ± 1.8 mmHg), left atrial pressure (4.6 ± 0.8 mmHg), PVR (1.0 ± 0.2 wood units), and CI (3.8 ± 0.5 l/min/m 2 ) all met criteria for acceptance of the model, though the standard deviations of LAP and CI were somewhat narrower than published comparators. The simulation results for right ventricular infarction also fell within the published ranges: pulmonary blood volume (727 ± 102 ml), pulmonary arterial pressures (30 ± 4 mmHg systolic, 12 ± 2 mmHg diastolic), left atrial pressure (13 ± 2 mmHg), PVR (1.6 ± 0.3 wood units), and CI (2.0 ± 0.4 l/min/m 2 ) all fell within one standard deviation of the reported population values and vice-versa. In the pulmonary hypertension model, pulmonary blood volume of 615 ± 90 ml, pulmonary arterial pressures of 80 ± 14 mmHg systolic, 36 ± 7 mmHg diastolic, and the left atrial pressure of 11 ± 2 mmHg all met criteria for acceptance. For CI, the simulated value of 2.8 ± 0.4 l/min/m 2 once again had a narrower spread than most of the published data, but fell inside of the SD of all published data, and the PVR value of 7.5 ± 1.6 wood units fell in the middle of the four published studies. The right-ventricular and pulmonary circulation simulation appears to be a reasonable approximation of the right-sided circulation for healthy physiology as well as the pathologic conditions tested.

Effect of reverse shoulder design philosophy on muscle moment arms.

PubMed

Hamilton, Matthew A; Diep, Phong; Roche, Chris; Flurin, Pierre Henri; Wright, Thomas W; Zuckerman, Joseph D; Routman, Howard

2015-04-01

This study analyzes the muscle moment arms of three different reverse shoulder design philosophies using a previously published method. Digital bone models of the shoulder were imported into a 3D modeling software and markers placed for the origin and insertion of relevant muscles. The anatomic model was used as a baseline for moment arm calculations. Subsequently, three different reverse shoulder designs were virtually implanted and moment arms were analyzed in abduction and external rotation. The results indicate that the lateral offset between the joint center and the axis of the humerus specific to one reverse shoulder design increased the external rotation moment arms of the posterior deltoid relative to the other reverse shoulder designs. The other muscles analyzed demonstrated differences in the moment arms, but none of the differences reached statistical significance. This study demonstrated how the combination of variables making up different reverse shoulder designs can affect the moment arms of the muscles in different and statistically significant ways. The role of humeral offset in reverse shoulder design has not been previously reported and could have an impact on external rotation and stability achieved post-operatively. © 2015 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

STEADY-STATE SOLUTIONS TO PBPK MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS TO RISK ASSESSMENT I: ROUTE-TO-ROUTE EXTRAPOLATION OF VOLATILE CHEMICALS - AUTHORS' RESPONSE TO LETTER BY DR. KENNETH BOGEN

EPA Science Inventory

Dear Editor: We are disappointed that Dr. Bogen felt our paper(1) “adds little new” to previously published work utilizing steady state solutions to PBPK models. Moreover, it was not our intention to be either “dismissive” or “misleading” in our admittedly brief citation of the...

Long term radiocesium contamination of fruit trees following the Chernobyl accident.

PubMed

Antonopoulos-Domis, M; Clouvas, A; Gagianas, A

1996-12-01

Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied from 1990 to 1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident. The results of the present work qualitatively verify the model predictions.

Molecular dynamics study of lipid bilayers modeling the plasma membranes of mouse hepatocytes and hepatomas.

PubMed

Andoh, Yoshimichi; Aoki, Noriyuki; Okazaki, Susumu

2016-02-28

Molecular dynamics (MD) calculations of lipid bilayers modeling the plasma membranes of normal mouse hepatocytes and hepatomas in water have been performed under physiological isothermal-isobaric conditions (310.15 K and 1 atm). The changes in the membrane properties induced by hepatic canceration were investigated and were compared with previous MD calculations included in our previous study of the changes in membrane properties induced by murine thymic canceration. The calculated model membranes for normal hepatocytes and hepatomas comprised 23 and 24 kinds of lipids, respectively. These included phosphatidylcholine, phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylserine, phosphatidylinositol, sphingomyelin, lysophospholipids, and cholesterol. We referred to previously published experimental values for the mole fraction of the lipids adopted in the present calculations. The calculated structural and dynamic properties of the membranes such as lateral structure, order parameters, lateral self-diffusion constants, and rotational correlation times all showed that hepatic canceration causes plasma membranes to become more ordered laterally and less fluid. Interestingly, this finding contrasts with the less ordered structure and increased fluidity of plasma membranes induced by thymic canceration observed in our previous MD study.

Molecular dynamics study of lipid bilayers modeling the plasma membranes of mouse hepatocytes and hepatomas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andoh, Yoshimichi; Aoki, Noriyuki; Okazaki, Susumu

2016-02-01

Molecular dynamics (MD) calculations of lipid bilayers modeling the plasma membranes of normal mouse hepatocytes and hepatomas in water have been performed under physiological isothermal-isobaric conditions (310.15 K and 1 atm). The changes in the membrane properties induced by hepatic canceration were investigated and were compared with previous MD calculations included in our previous study of the changes in membrane properties induced by murine thymic canceration. The calculated model membranes for normal hepatocytes and hepatomas comprised 23 and 24 kinds of lipids, respectively. These included phosphatidylcholine, phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylserine, phosphatidylinositol, sphingomyelin, lysophospholipids, and cholesterol. We referred to previously published experimental values for the mole fraction of the lipids adopted in the present calculations. The calculated structural and dynamic properties of the membranes such as lateral structure, order parameters, lateral self-diffusion constants, and rotational correlation times all showed that hepatic canceration causes plasma membranes to become more ordered laterally and less fluid. Interestingly, this finding contrasts with the less ordered structure and increased fluidity of plasma membranes induced by thymic canceration observed in our previous MD study.

Detection of no-model input-output pairs in closed-loop systems.

PubMed

Potts, Alain Segundo; Alvarado, Christiam Segundo Morales; Garcia, Claudio

2017-11-01

The detection of no-model input-output (IO) pairs is important because it can speed up the multivariable system identification process, since all the pairs with null transfer functions are previously discarded and it can also improve the identified model quality, thus improving the performance of model based controllers. In the available literature, the methods focus just on the open-loop case, since in this case there is not the effect of the controller forcing the main diagonal in the transfer matrix to one and all the other terms to zero. In this paper, a modification of a previous method able to detect no-model IO pairs in open-loop systems is presented, but adapted to perform this duty in closed-loop systems. Tests are performed by using the traditional methods and the proposed one to show its effectiveness. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HOCOMOCO: towards a complete collection of transcription factor binding models for human and mouse via large-scale ChIP-Seq analysis.

PubMed

Kulakovskiy, Ivan V; Vorontsov, Ilya E; Yevshin, Ivan S; Sharipov, Ruslan N; Fedorova, Alla D; Rumynskiy, Eugene I; Medvedeva, Yulia A; Magana-Mora, Arturo; Bajic, Vladimir B; Papatsenko, Dmitry A; Kolpakov, Fedor A; Makeev, Vsevolod J

2018-01-04

We present a major update of the HOCOMOCO collection that consists of patterns describing DNA binding specificities for human and mouse transcription factors. In this release, we profited from a nearly doubled volume of published in vivo experiments on transcription factor (TF) binding to expand the repertoire of binding models, replace low-quality models previously based on in vitro data only and cover more than a hundred TFs with previously unknown binding specificities. This was achieved by systematic motif discovery from more than five thousand ChIP-Seq experiments uniformly processed within the BioUML framework with several ChIP-Seq peak calling tools and aggregated in the GTRD database. HOCOMOCO v11 contains binding models for 453 mouse and 680 human transcription factors and includes 1302 mononucleotide and 576 dinucleotide position weight matrices, which describe primary binding preferences of each transcription factor and reliable alternative binding specificities. An interactive interface and bulk downloads are available on the web: http://hocomoco.autosome.ru and http://www.cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/hocomoco11. In this release, we complement HOCOMOCO by MoLoTool (Motif Location Toolbox, http://molotool.autosome.ru) that applies HOCOMOCO models for visualization of binding sites in short DNA sequences. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

A more rational, theory-driven approach to analysing the factor structure of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale.

PubMed

Kozinszky, Zoltan; Töreki, Annamária; Hompoth, Emőke A; Dudas, Robert B; Németh, Gábor

2017-04-01

We endeavoured to analyze the factor structure of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) during a screening programme in Hungary, using exploratory (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), testing both previously published models and newly developed theory-driven ones, after a critical analysis of the literature. Between April 2011 and January 2015, a sample of 2967 pregnant women (between 12th and 30th weeks of gestation) and 714 women 6 weeks after delivery completed the Hungarian version of the EPDS in South-East Hungary. EFAs suggested unidimensionality in both samples. 33 out of 42 previously published models showed good and 6 acceptable fit with our antepartum data in CFAs, whilst 10 of them showed good and 28 acceptable fit in our postpartum sample. Using multiple fit indices, our theory-driven anhedonia (items 1,2) - anxiety (items 4,5) - low mood (items 8,9) model provided the best fit in the antepartum sample. In the postpartum sample, our theory-driven models were again among the best performing models, including an anhedonia and an anxiety factor together with either a low mood or a suicidal risk factor (items 3,6,10). The EPDS showed moderate within- and between-culture invariability, although this would also need to be re-examined with a theory-driven approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discovering Communicable Models from Earth Science Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwabacher, Mark; Langley, Pat; Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; Torregrosa, Alicia

2002-01-01

This chapter describes how we used regression rules to improve upon results previously published in the Earth science literature. In such a scientific application of machine learning, it is crucially important for the learned models to be understandable and communicable. We recount how we selected a learning algorithm to maximize communicability, and then describe two visualization techniques that we developed to aid in understanding the model by exploiting the spatial nature of the data. We also report how evaluating the learned models across time let us discover an error in the data.

The Interrelationships of Placental Mammals and the Limits of Phylogenetic Inference.

PubMed

Tarver, James E; Dos Reis, Mario; Mirarab, Siavash; Moran, Raymond J; Parker, Sean; O'Reilly, Joseph E; King, Benjamin L; O'Connell, Mary J; Asher, Robert J; Warnow, Tandy; Peterson, Kevin J; Donoghue, Philip C J; Pisani, Davide

2016-01-05

Placental mammals comprise three principal clades: Afrotheria (e.g., elephants and tenrecs), Xenarthra (e.g., armadillos and sloths), and Boreoeutheria (all other placental mammals), the relationships among which are the subject of controversy and a touchstone for debate on the limits of phylogenetic inference. Previous analyses have found support for all three hypotheses, leading some to conclude that this phylogenetic problem might be impossible to resolve due to the compounded effects of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and a rapid radiation. Here we show, using a genome scale nucleotide data set, microRNAs, and the reanalysis of the three largest previously published amino acid data sets, that the root of Placentalia lies between Atlantogenata and Boreoeutheria. Although we found evidence for ILS in early placental evolution, we are able to reject previous conclusions that the placental root is a hard polytomy that cannot be resolved. Reanalyses of previous data sets recover Atlantogenata + Boreoeutheria and show that contradictory results are a consequence of poorly fitting evolutionary models; instead, when the evolutionary process is better-modeled, all data sets converge on Atlantogenata. Our Bayesian molecular clock analysis estimates that marsupials diverged from placentals 157-170 Ma, crown Placentalia diverged 86-100 Ma, and crown Atlantogenata diverged 84-97 Ma. Our results are compatible with placental diversification being driven by dispersal rather than vicariance mechanisms, postdating early phases in the protracted opening of the Atlantic Ocean. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Presentation of Atomic Structure in Turkish General Chemistry Textbooks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niaz, Mansoor; Costu, Bayram

2009-01-01

Research in science education has recognized the importance of teaching atomic structure within a history and philosophy of science perspective. The objective of this study is to evaluate general chemistry textbooks published in Turkey based on the eight criteria developed in previous research. Criteria used referred to the atomic models of…

Early Behavioral Intervention Is Associated with Normalized Brain Activity in Young Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawson, Geraldine; Jones, Emily J. H.; Merkle, Kristen; Venema, Kaitlin; Lowy, Rachel; Faja, Susan; Kamara, Dana; Murias, Michael; Greenson, Jessica; Winter, Jamie; Smith, Milani; Rogers, Sally J.; Webb, Sara J.

2012-01-01

Objective: A previously published randomized clinical trial indicated that a developmental behavioral intervention, the Early Start Denver Model (ESDM), resulted in gains in IQ, language, and adaptive behavior of children with autism spectrum disorder. This report describes a secondary outcome measurement from this trial, EEG activity. Method:…

Battery Calendar Life Estimator Manual Modeling and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jon P. Christophersen; Ira Bloom; Ed Thomas

2012-10-01

The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

Battery Life Estimator Manual Linear Modeling and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jon P. Christophersen; Ira Bloom; Ed Thomas

2009-08-01

The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

Data Warehouse Design from HL7 Clinical Document Architecture Schema.

PubMed

Pecoraro, Fabrizio; Luzi, Daniela; Ricci, Fabrizio L

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a semi-automatic approach to extract clinical information structured in a HL7 Clinical Document Architecture (CDA) and transform it in a data warehouse dimensional model schema. It is based on a conceptual framework published in a previous work that maps the dimensional model primitives with CDA elements. Its feasibility is demonstrated providing a case study based on the analysis of vital signs gathered during laboratory tests.

A boundary-representation method for designing whole-body radiation dosimetry models: pregnant females at the ends of three gestational periods—RPI-P3, -P6 and -P9

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X. George; Taranenko, Valery; Zhang, Juying; Shi, Chengyu

2007-12-01

Fetuses are extremely radiosensitive and the protection of pregnant females against ionizing radiation is of particular interest in many health and medical physics applications. Existing models of pregnant females relied on simplified anatomical shapes or partial-body images of low resolutions. This paper reviews two general types of solid geometry modeling: constructive solid geometry (CSG) and boundary representation (BREP). It presents in detail a project to adopt the BREP modeling approach to systematically design whole-body radiation dosimetry models: a pregnant female and her fetus at the ends of three gestational periods of 3, 6 and 9 months. Based on previously published CT images of a 7-month pregnant female, the VIP-Man model and mesh organ models, this new set of pregnant female models was constructed using 3D surface modeling technologies instead of voxels. The organ masses were adjusted to agree with the reference data provided by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and previously published papers within 0.5%. The models were then voxelized for the purpose of performing dose calculations in identically implemented EGS4 and MCNPX Monte Carlo codes. The agreements of the fetal doses obtained from these two codes for this set of models were found to be within 2% for the majority of the external photon irradiation geometries of AP, PA, LAT, ROT and ISO at various energies. It is concluded that the so-called RPI-P3, RPI-P6 and RPI-P9 models have been reliably defined for Monte Carlo calculations. The paper also discusses the needs for future research and the possibility for the BREP method to become a major tool in the anatomical modeling for radiation dosimetry.

Probabilistic representation in syllogistic reasoning: A theory to integrate mental models and heuristics.

PubMed

Hattori, Masasi

2016-12-01

This paper presents a new theory of syllogistic reasoning. The proposed model assumes there are probabilistic representations of given signature situations. Instead of conducting an exhaustive search, the model constructs an individual-based "logical" mental representation that expresses the most probable state of affairs, and derives a necessary conclusion that is not inconsistent with the model using heuristics based on informativeness. The model is a unification of previous influential models. Its descriptive validity has been evaluated against existing empirical data and two new experiments, and by qualitative analyses based on previous empirical findings, all of which supported the theory. The model's behavior is also consistent with findings in other areas, including working memory capacity. The results indicate that people assume the probabilities of all target events mentioned in a syllogism to be almost equal, which suggests links between syllogistic reasoning and other areas of cognition. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A toy model for the yield of a tamped fission bomb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, B. Cameron

2018-02-01

A simple expression is developed for estimating the yield of a tamped fission bomb, that is, a basic nuclear weapon comprising a fissile core jacketed by a surrounding neutron-reflecting tamper. This expression is based on modeling the nuclear chain reaction as a geometric progression in combination with a previously published expression for the threshold-criticality condition for such a core. The derivation is especially straightforward, as it requires no knowledge of diffusion theory and should be accessible to students of both physics and policy. The calculation can be set up as a single page spreadsheet. Application to the Little Boy and Fat Man bombs of World War II gives results in reasonable accord with published yield estimates for these weapons.

From Peer-Reviewed to Peer-Reproduced in Scholarly Publishing: The Complementary Roles of Data Models and Workflows in Bioinformatics

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jun; Avila-Garcia, Maria Susana; Roos, Marco; Thompson, Mark; van der Horst, Eelke; Kaliyaperumal, Rajaram; Luo, Ruibang; Lee, Tin-Lap; Lam, Tak-wah; Edmunds, Scott C.; Sansone, Susanna-Assunta

2015-01-01

Motivation Reproducing the results from a scientific paper can be challenging due to the absence of data and the computational tools required for their analysis. In addition, details relating to the procedures used to obtain the published results can be difficult to discern due to the use of natural language when reporting how experiments have been performed. The Investigation/Study/Assay (ISA), Nanopublications (NP), and Research Objects (RO) models are conceptual data modelling frameworks that can structure such information from scientific papers. Computational workflow platforms can also be used to reproduce analyses of data in a principled manner. We assessed the extent by which ISA, NP, and RO models, together with the Galaxy workflow system, can capture the experimental processes and reproduce the findings of a previously published paper reporting on the development of SOAPdenovo2, a de novo genome assembler. Results Executable workflows were developed using Galaxy, which reproduced results that were consistent with the published findings. A structured representation of the information in the SOAPdenovo2 paper was produced by combining the use of ISA, NP, and RO models. By structuring the information in the published paper using these data and scientific workflow modelling frameworks, it was possible to explicitly declare elements of experimental design, variables, and findings. The models served as guides in the curation of scientific information and this led to the identification of inconsistencies in the original published paper, thereby allowing its authors to publish corrections in the form of an errata. Availability SOAPdenovo2 scripts, data, and results are available through the GigaScience Database: http://dx.doi.org/10.5524/100044; the workflows are available from GigaGalaxy: http://galaxy.cbiit.cuhk.edu.hk; and the representations using the ISA, NP, and RO models are available through the SOAPdenovo2 case study website http://isa-tools.github.io/soapdenovo2/. Contact: philippe.rocca-serra@oerc.ox.ac.uk and susanna-assunta.sansone@oerc.ox.ac.uk. PMID:26154165

Occurrence of cyanobacteria, microcystin, and taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir, Kansas, 2001-16

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy M.; Williams, Thomas J.; Kramer, Ariele R.; Harris, Theodore D.

2017-03-31

Cheney Reservoir, located in south-central Kansas, is one of the primary drinking-water supplies for the city of Wichita and an important recreational resource. Since 1990, cyanobacterial blooms have been present occasionally in Cheney Reservoir, resulting in increased treatment costs and decreased recreational use. Cyanobacteria, the cyanotoxin microcystin, and the taste-and-odor compounds geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol have been measured in Cheney Reservoir by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, for about 16 years. The purpose of this report is to describe the occurrence of cyanobacteria, microcystin, and taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir during May 2001 through June 2016 and to update previously published logistic regression models that used continuous water-quality data to estimate the probability of microcystin and geosmin occurrence above relevant thresholds.Cyanobacteria, microcystin, and geosmin were detected in about 84, 52, and 31 percent of samples collected in Cheney Reservoir during May 2001 through June 2016, respectively. 2-methylisoborneol was less common, detected in only 3 percent of samples. Microcystin and geosmin concentrations exceeded advisory values of concern more frequently than cyanobacterial abundance; therefore, cyanobacteria are not a good indicator of the presence of these taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir. Broad seasonal patterns in cyanobacteria and microcystin were evident, though abundance and concentration varied by orders of magnitude across years. Cyanobacterial abundances generally peaked in late summer or early fall (August through October), and smaller peaks were observed in winter (January through February). In a typical year, microcystin was first detected in June or July, increased to its seasonal maxima in the summer (July through September), and then decreased. Seasonal patterns in geosmin were less consistent than cyanobacteria and microcystin, but geosmin typically had a small peak during winter (January through March) during most years and a large peak during summer (July through September) during some years. Though the relation between cyanobacterial abundance and microcystin and geosmin concentrations was positive, overall correlations were weak, likely because production is strain-specific and cyanobacterial strain composition may vary substantially over time. Microcystin often was present without taste-and-odor compounds. By comparison, where taste-and-odor compounds were present, microcystin frequently was detected. Taste-and-odor compounds, therefore, may be used as indicators that microcystin may be present; however, microcystin was present without taste-and-odor compounds, so taste or odor alone does not provide sufficient warning to ensure human-health protection.Logistic regression models that estimate the probability of microcystin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 0.1 micrograms per liter and geosmin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 5 nanograms per liter were developed. Models were developed using the complete dataset (January 2003 through June 2016 for microcystin [14-year dataset]; May 2001 through June 2016 for geosmin [16-year dataset]) and an abbreviated 4-year dataset (January 2013 through June 2016 for microcystin and geosmin). Performance of the newly developed models was compared with previously published models that were developed using data collected during May 2001 through December 2009. A seasonal component and chlorophyll fluorescence (a surrogate for algal biomass) were the explanatory variables for microcystin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 0.1 micrograms per liter in all models. All models were relatively robust, though the previously published and 14-year models performed better over time; however, as a tool to estimate microcystin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 0.1 micrograms per liter in a real-time notification system near the Cheney Dam, the 4-year model is most representative of recent (2013 through 2016) conditions. All models for geosmin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 5 nanograms per liter had different explanatory variables and model forms. The previously published and 16-year models were not robust over time, likely because of changing environmental conditions and seasonal patterns in geosmin occurrence. By comparison, the abbreviated 4-year model may be a useful tool to estimate geosmin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 5 nanograms per liter in a real-time notification system near the Cheney Dam. The better performance of the abbreviated 4-year geosmin model during 2013 through 2016 relative to the previously published and 16-year models demonstrates the need for continuous reevaluation of models estimating the probability of occurrence.

An accurate fatigue damage model for welded joints subjected to variable amplitude loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aeran, A.; Siriwardane, S. C.; Mikkelsen, O.; Langen, I.

2017-12-01

Researchers in the past have proposed several fatigue damage models to overcome the shortcomings of the commonly used Miner’s rule. However, requirements of material parameters or S-N curve modifications restricts their practical applications. Also, application of most of these models under variable amplitude loading conditions have not been found. To overcome these restrictions, a new fatigue damage model is proposed in this paper. The proposed model can be applied by practicing engineers using only the S-N curve given in the standard codes of practice. The model is verified with experimentally derived damage evolution curves for C 45 and 16 Mn and gives better agreement compared to previous models. The model predicted fatigue lives are also in better correlation with experimental results compared to previous models as shown in earlier published work by the authors. The proposed model is applied to welded joints subjected to variable amplitude loadings in this paper. The model given around 8% shorter fatigue lives compared to Eurocode given Miner’s rule. This shows the importance of applying accurate fatigue damage models for welded joints.

Building an Open-source Simulation Platform of Acoustic Radiation Force-based Breast Elastography

PubMed Central

Wang, Yu; Peng, Bo; Jiang, Jingfeng

2017-01-01

Ultrasound-based elastography including strain elastography (SE), acoustic radiation force Impulse (ARFI) imaging, point shear wave elastography (pSWE) and supersonic shear imaging (SSI) have been used to differentiate breast tumors among other clinical applications. The objective of this study is to extend a previously published virtual simulation platform built for ultrasound quasi-static breast elastography toward acoustic radiation force-based breast elastography. Consequently, the extended virtual breast elastography simulation platform can be used to validate image pixels with known underlying soft tissue properties (i.e. “ground truth”) in complex, heterogeneous media, enhancing confidence in elastographic image interpretations. The proposed virtual breast elastography system inherited four key components from the previously published virtual simulation platform: an ultrasound simulator (Field II), a mesh generator (Tetgen), a finite element solver (FEBio) and a visualization and data processing package (VTK). Using a simple message passing mechanism, functionalities have now been extended to acoustic radiation force-based elastography simulations. Examples involving three different numerical breast models with increasing complexity – one uniform model, one simple inclusion model and one virtual complex breast model derived from magnetic resonance imaging data, were used to demonstrate capabilities of this extended virtual platform. Overall, simulation results were compared with the published results. In the uniform model, the estimated shear wave speed (SWS) values were within 4% compared to the predetermined SWS values. In the simple inclusion and the complex breast models, SWS values of all hard inclusions in soft backgrounds were slightly underestimated, similar to what has been reported. The elastic contrast values and visual observation show that ARFI images have higher spatial resolution, while SSI images can provide higher inclusion-to-background contrast. In summary, our initial results were consistent with our expectations and what have been reported in the literature. The proposed (open-source) simulation platform can serve as a single gateway to perform many elastographic simulations in a transparent manner, thereby promoting collaborative developments. PMID:28075330

Building an open-source simulation platform of acoustic radiation force-based breast elastography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yu; Peng, Bo; Jiang, Jingfeng

2017-03-01

Ultrasound-based elastography including strain elastography, acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) imaging, point shear wave elastography and supersonic shear imaging (SSI) have been used to differentiate breast tumors among other clinical applications. The objective of this study is to extend a previously published virtual simulation platform built for ultrasound quasi-static breast elastography toward acoustic radiation force-based breast elastography. Consequently, the extended virtual breast elastography simulation platform can be used to validate image pixels with known underlying soft tissue properties (i.e. ‘ground truth’) in complex, heterogeneous media, enhancing confidence in elastographic image interpretations. The proposed virtual breast elastography system inherited four key components from the previously published virtual simulation platform: an ultrasound simulator (Field II), a mesh generator (Tetgen), a finite element solver (FEBio) and a visualization and data processing package (VTK). Using a simple message passing mechanism, functionalities have now been extended to acoustic radiation force-based elastography simulations. Examples involving three different numerical breast models with increasing complexity—one uniform model, one simple inclusion model and one virtual complex breast model derived from magnetic resonance imaging data, were used to demonstrate capabilities of this extended virtual platform. Overall, simulation results were compared with the published results. In the uniform model, the estimated shear wave speed (SWS) values were within 4% compared to the predetermined SWS values. In the simple inclusion and the complex breast models, SWS values of all hard inclusions in soft backgrounds were slightly underestimated, similar to what has been reported. The elastic contrast values and visual observation show that ARFI images have higher spatial resolution, while SSI images can provide higher inclusion-to-background contrast. In summary, our initial results were consistent with our expectations and what have been reported in the literature. The proposed (open-source) simulation platform can serve as a single gateway to perform many elastographic simulations in a transparent manner, thereby promoting collaborative developments.

MS2PIP prediction server: compute and visualize MS2 peak intensity predictions for CID and HCD fragmentation.

PubMed

Degroeve, Sven; Maddelein, Davy; Martens, Lennart

2015-07-01

We present an MS(2) peak intensity prediction server that computes MS(2) charge 2+ and 3+ spectra from peptide sequences for the most common fragment ions. The server integrates the Unimod public domain post-translational modification database for modified peptides. The prediction model is an improvement of the previously published MS(2)PIP model for Orbitrap-LTQ CID spectra. Predicted MS(2) spectra can be downloaded as a spectrum file and can be visualized in the browser for comparisons with observations. In addition, we added prediction models for HCD fragmentation (Q-Exactive Orbitrap) and show that these models compute accurate intensity predictions on par with CID performance. We also show that training prediction models for CID and HCD separately improves the accuracy for each fragmentation method. The MS(2)PIP prediction server is accessible from http://iomics.ugent.be/ms2pip. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Modeling the Deep Impact Near-nucleus Observations of H2O and CO2 in Comet 9P/Tempel 1 Using Asymmetric Spherical Coupled Escape Probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gersch, Alan M.; A’Hearn, Michael F.; Feaga, Lori M.

2018-04-01

We have applied our asymmetric spherical adaptation of Coupled Escape Probability to the modeling of optically thick cometary comae. Expanding on our previously published work, here we present models including asymmetric comae. Near-nucleus observations from the Deep Impact mission have been modeled, including observed coma morphology features. We present results for two primary volatile species of interest, H2O and CO2, for comet 9P/Tempel 1. Production rates calculated using our best-fit models are notably greater than those derived from the Deep Impact data based on the assumption of optically thin conditions, both for H2O and CO2 but more so for CO2, and fall between the Deep Impact values and the global pre-impact production rates measured at other observatories and published by Schleicher et al. (2006), Mumma et al. (2005), and Mäkinen et al. (2007).

Gravity model improvement using GEOS-3 (GEM 9 and 10)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerch, F. J.; Klosko, S. M.; Laubscher, R. E.; Wagner, C. A.

1977-01-01

The use of collocation permitted GEM 9 to be a larger field than previous derived satellite models, GEM 9 having harmonics complete to 20 x 20 with selected higher degree terms. The satellite data set has approximately 840,000 observations, of which 200,000 are laser ranges taken on 9 satellites equipped with retroreflectors. GEM 10 is complete to 22 x 22 with selected higher degree terms out to degree and order 30 amounting to a total of 592 coefficients. Comparisons with surface gravity and altimeter data indicate a substantial improvement in GEM 9 over previous satellite solutions; GEM 9 is in even closer agreement with surface data than the previously published GEM 6 solution which contained surface gravity. In particular the free air gravity anomalies calculated from GEM 9 and a surface gravity solution are in excellent agreement for the high degree terms.

A permeation theory for single-file ion channels: one- and two-step models.

PubMed

Nelson, Peter Hugo

2011-04-28

How many steps are required to model permeation through ion channels? This question is investigated by comparing one- and two-step models of permeation with experiment and MD simulation for the first time. In recent MD simulations, the observed permeation mechanism was identified as resembling a Hodgkin and Keynes knock-on mechanism with one voltage-dependent rate-determining step [Jensen et al., PNAS 107, 5833 (2010)]. These previously published simulation data are fitted to a one-step knock-on model that successfully explains the highly non-Ohmic current-voltage curve observed in the simulation. However, these predictions (and the simulations upon which they are based) are not representative of real channel behavior, which is typically Ohmic at low voltages. A two-step association/dissociation (A/D) model is then compared with experiment for the first time. This two-parameter model is shown to be remarkably consistent with previously published permeation experiments through the MaxiK potassium channel over a wide range of concentrations and positive voltages. The A/D model also provides a first-order explanation of permeation through the Shaker potassium channel, but it does not explain the asymmetry observed experimentally. To address this, a new asymmetric variant of the A/D model is developed using the present theoretical framework. It includes a third parameter that represents the value of the "permeation coordinate" (fractional electric potential energy) corresponding to the triply occupied state n of the channel. This asymmetric A/D model is fitted to published permeation data through the Shaker potassium channel at physiological concentrations, and it successfully predicts qualitative changes in the negative current-voltage data (including a transition to super-Ohmic behavior) based solely on a fit to positive-voltage data (that appear linear). The A/D model appears to be qualitatively consistent with a large group of published MD simulations, but no quantitative comparison has yet been made. The A/D model makes a network of predictions for how the elementary steps and the channel occupancy vary with both concentration and voltage. In addition, the proposed theoretical framework suggests a new way of plotting the energetics of the simulated system using a one-dimensional permeation coordinate that uses electric potential energy as a metric for the net fractional progress through the permeation mechanism. This approach has the potential to provide a quantitative connection between atomistic simulations and permeation experiments for the first time.

Reconfigurable Antenna Aperture with Optically Controlled GeTe-Based RF Switches

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-31

duration (~100ns) but high amplitude raises the material’s temperature above the melting point . As a liquid, the atoms are randomly distributed...100ns, there is sufficient optical energy to heat and melt a 100nm thick GeTe PCM area of approximately 3µm 2 . Figure 3. Optimum PCM area...which tracks well with previously published thin film heater model [9]. Figure 4. Validation of Melt /Quench Thermal Model Optical Control: The

An approximation of herd effect due to vaccinating children against seasonal influenza - a potential solution to the incorporation of indirect effects into static models.

PubMed

Van Vlaenderen, Ilse; Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Meier, Genevieve; Nautrup, Barbara Poulsen

2013-01-22

Indirect herd effect from vaccination of children offers potential for improving the effectiveness of influenza prevention in the remaining unvaccinated population. Static models used in cost-effectiveness analyses cannot dynamically capture herd effects. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to allow herd effect associated with vaccinating children against seasonal influenza to be incorporated into static models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Two previously published linear equations for approximation of herd effects in general were compared with the results of a structured literature review undertaken using PubMed searches to identify data on herd effects specific to influenza vaccination. A linear function was fitted to point estimates from the literature using the sum of squared residuals. The literature review identified 21 publications on 20 studies for inclusion. Six studies provided data on a mathematical relationship between effective vaccine coverage in subgroups and reduction of influenza infection in a larger unvaccinated population. These supported a linear relationship when effective vaccine coverage in a subgroup population was between 20% and 80%. Three studies evaluating herd effect at a community level, specifically induced by vaccinating children, provided point estimates for fitting linear equations. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the target population for vaccination (children) was slightly less conservative than a previously published equation for herd effects in general. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the non-target population was considerably less conservative than the previously published equation. This method of approximating herd effect requires simple adjustments to the annual baseline risk of influenza in static models: (1) for the age group targeted by the childhood vaccination strategy (i.e. children); and (2) for other age groups not targeted (e.g. adults and/or elderly). Two approximations provide a linear relationship between effective coverage and reduction in the risk of infection. The first is a conservative approximation, recommended as a base-case for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The second, fitted to data extracted from a structured literature review, provides a less conservative estimate of herd effect, recommended for sensitivity analyses.

Contributions to muscle force and EMG by combined neural excitation and electrical stimulation

PubMed Central

Crago, Patrick E; Makowski, Nathaniel S; Cole, Natalie M

2014-01-01

Objective Stimulation of muscle for research or clinical interventions is often superimposed on ongoing physiological activity, without a quantitative understanding of the impact of the stimulation on the net muscle activity and the physiological response. Experimental studies show that total force during stimulation is less than the sum of the isolated voluntary and stimulated forces, but the occlusion mechanism is not understood. Approach We develop a model of efferent motor activity elicited by superimposing stimulation during a physiologically activated contraction. The model combines action potential interactions due to collision block, source resetting, and refractory periods with previously published models of physiological motor unit recruitment, rate modulation, force production, and EMG generation in human first dorsal interosseous muscle to investigate the mechanisms and effectiveness of stimulation on the net muscle force and EMG. Main Results Stimulation during a physiological contraction demonstrates partial occlusion of force and the neural component of the EMG, due to action potential interactions in motor units activated by both sources. Depending on neural and stimulation firing rates as well as on force-frequency properties, individual motor unit forces can be greater, smaller, or unchanged by the stimulation. In contrast, voluntary motor unit EMG potentials in simultaneously stimulated motor units show progressive occlusion with increasing stimulus rate. The simulations predict that occlusion would be decreased by a reverse stimulation recruitment order. Significance The results are consistent with and provide a mechanistic interpretation of previously published experimental evidence of force occlusion. The models also predict two effects that have not been reported previously - voluntary EMG occlusion and the advantages of a proximal stimulation site. This study provides a basis for the rational design of both future experiments and clinical neuroprosthetic interventions involving either motor or sensory stimulation. PMID:25242203

A Computational Model of the Rainbow Trout Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Ovary-Liver Axis

PubMed Central

Gillies, Kendall; Krone, Stephen M.; Nagler, James J.; Schultz, Irvin R.

2016-01-01

Reproduction in fishes and other vertebrates represents the timely coordination of many endocrine factors that culminate in the production of mature, viable gametes. In recent years there has been rapid growth in understanding fish reproductive biology, which has been motivated in part by recognition of the potential effects that climate change, habitat destruction and contaminant exposure can have on natural and cultured fish populations. New approaches to understanding the impacts of these stressors are being developed that require a systems biology approach with more biologically accurate and detailed mathematical models. We have developed a multi-scale mathematical model of the female rainbow trout hypothalamus-pituitary-ovary-liver axis to use as a tool to help understand the functioning of the system and for extrapolation of laboratory findings of stressor impacts on specific components of the axis. The model describes the essential endocrine components of the female rainbow trout reproductive axis. The model also describes the stage specific growth of maturing oocytes within the ovary and permits the presence of sub-populations of oocytes at different stages of development. Model formulation and parametrization was largely based on previously published in vivo and in vitro data in rainbow trout and new data on the synthesis of gonadotropins in the pituitary. Model predictions were validated against several previously published data sets for annual changes in gonadotropins and estradiol in rainbow trout. Estimates of select model parameters can be obtained from in vitro assays using either quantitative (direct estimation of rate constants) or qualitative (relative change from control values) approaches. This is an important aspect of mathematical models as in vitro, cell-based assays are expected to provide the bulk of experimental data for future risk assessments and will require quantitative physiological models to extrapolate across biological scales. PMID:27096735

A Computational Model of the Rainbow Trout Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Ovary-Liver Axis.

PubMed

Gillies, Kendall; Krone, Stephen M; Nagler, James J; Schultz, Irvin R

2016-04-01

Reproduction in fishes and other vertebrates represents the timely coordination of many endocrine factors that culminate in the production of mature, viable gametes. In recent years there has been rapid growth in understanding fish reproductive biology, which has been motivated in part by recognition of the potential effects that climate change, habitat destruction and contaminant exposure can have on natural and cultured fish populations. New approaches to understanding the impacts of these stressors are being developed that require a systems biology approach with more biologically accurate and detailed mathematical models. We have developed a multi-scale mathematical model of the female rainbow trout hypothalamus-pituitary-ovary-liver axis to use as a tool to help understand the functioning of the system and for extrapolation of laboratory findings of stressor impacts on specific components of the axis. The model describes the essential endocrine components of the female rainbow trout reproductive axis. The model also describes the stage specific growth of maturing oocytes within the ovary and permits the presence of sub-populations of oocytes at different stages of development. Model formulation and parametrization was largely based on previously published in vivo and in vitro data in rainbow trout and new data on the synthesis of gonadotropins in the pituitary. Model predictions were validated against several previously published data sets for annual changes in gonadotropins and estradiol in rainbow trout. Estimates of select model parameters can be obtained from in vitro assays using either quantitative (direct estimation of rate constants) or qualitative (relative change from control values) approaches. This is an important aspect of mathematical models as in vitro, cell-based assays are expected to provide the bulk of experimental data for future risk assessments and will require quantitative physiological models to extrapolate across biological scales.

Impact and Cost-effectiveness of 3 Doses of 9-Valent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Among US Females Previously Vaccinated With 4-Valent HPV Vaccine.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Laprise, Jean-François; Brisson, Marc; Markowitz, Lauri E

2016-06-01

We estimated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of providing 3-doses of nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (9vHPV) to females aged 13-18 years who had previously completed a series of quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV), a strategy we refer to as "additional 9vHPV vaccination." We used 2 distinct models: (1) the simplified model, which is among the most basic of the published dynamic HPV models, and (2) the US HPV-ADVISE model, a complex, stochastic, individual-based transmission-dynamic model. When assuming no 4vHPV cross-protection, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained by additional 9vHPV vaccination was $146 200 in the simplified model and $108 200 in the US HPV-ADVISE model ($191 800 when assuming 4vHPV cross-protection). In 1-way sensitivity analyses in the scenario of no 4vHPV cross-protection, the simplified model results ranged from $70 300 to $182 000, and the US HPV-ADVISE model results ranged from $97 600 to $118 900. The average cost per QALY gained by additional 9vHPV vaccination exceeded $100 000 in both models. However, the results varied considerably in sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Additional 9vHPV vaccination is likely not as efficient as many other potential HPV vaccination strategies, such as increasing primary 9vHPV vaccine coverage. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Programming biological models in Python using PySB.

PubMed

Lopez, Carlos F; Muhlich, Jeremy L; Bachman, John A; Sorger, Peter K

2013-01-01

Mathematical equations are fundamental to modeling biological networks, but as networks get large and revisions frequent, it becomes difficult to manage equations directly or to combine previously developed models. Multiple simultaneous efforts to create graphical standards, rule-based languages, and integrated software workbenches aim to simplify biological modeling but none fully meets the need for transparent, extensible, and reusable models. In this paper we describe PySB, an approach in which models are not only created using programs, they are programs. PySB draws on programmatic modeling concepts from little b and ProMot, the rule-based languages BioNetGen and Kappa and the growing library of Python numerical tools. Central to PySB is a library of macros encoding familiar biochemical actions such as binding, catalysis, and polymerization, making it possible to use a high-level, action-oriented vocabulary to construct detailed models. As Python programs, PySB models leverage tools and practices from the open-source software community, substantially advancing our ability to distribute and manage the work of testing biochemical hypotheses. We illustrate these ideas using new and previously published models of apoptosis.

Programming biological models in Python using PySB

PubMed Central

Lopez, Carlos F; Muhlich, Jeremy L; Bachman, John A; Sorger, Peter K

2013-01-01

Mathematical equations are fundamental to modeling biological networks, but as networks get large and revisions frequent, it becomes difficult to manage equations directly or to combine previously developed models. Multiple simultaneous efforts to create graphical standards, rule-based languages, and integrated software workbenches aim to simplify biological modeling but none fully meets the need for transparent, extensible, and reusable models. In this paper we describe PySB, an approach in which models are not only created using programs, they are programs. PySB draws on programmatic modeling concepts from little b and ProMot, the rule-based languages BioNetGen and Kappa and the growing library of Python numerical tools. Central to PySB is a library of macros encoding familiar biochemical actions such as binding, catalysis, and polymerization, making it possible to use a high-level, action-oriented vocabulary to construct detailed models. As Python programs, PySB models leverage tools and practices from the open-source software community, substantially advancing our ability to distribute and manage the work of testing biochemical hypotheses. We illustrate these ideas using new and previously published models of apoptosis. PMID:23423320

The Connection between Lack of Support Service Use and Background Experience in Developmental Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Di Tommaso, Kathrynn

2011-01-01

This paper presents a follow-up to a previously published paper "The Connection between Role Model Relationships and Self-Direction in Developmental Students" and is based on findings from the same study. The study used observations and interviews to explore the ways in which a cohort of developmental writing students described their…

Zoning of an agricultural field using a fuzzy indicator model in combination with tool for multi-attributed decision-making

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Zoning of agricultural fields is an important task for utilization of precision farming technology. This paper extends previously published work entitled “Zoning of an agricultural field using a fuzzy indicator model” to a general case where there is disagreement between groups of managers or expert...

Using step and path selection functions for estimating resistance to movement: Pumas as a case study

Treesearch

Katherine A. Zeller; Kevin McGarigal; Samuel A. Cushman; Paul Beier; T. Winston Vickers; Walter M. Boyce

2015-01-01

GPS telemetry collars and their ability to acquire accurate and consistently frequent locations have increased the use of step selection functions (SSFs) and path selection functions (PathSFs) for studying animal movement and estimating resistance. However, previously published SSFs and PathSFs often do not accommodate multiple scales or multiscale modeling....

Discovering Communicable Scientific Knowledge from Spatio-Temporal Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwabacher, Mark; Langley, Pat; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This paper describes how we used regression rules to improve upon a result previously published in the Earth science literature. In such a scientific application of machine learning, it is crucially important for the learned models to be understandable and communicable. We recount how we selected a learning algorithm to maximize communicability, and then describe two visualization techniques that we developed to aid in understanding the model by exploiting the spatial nature of the data. We also report how evaluating the learned models across time let us discover an error in the data.

Classifying medical relations in clinical text via convolutional neural networks.

PubMed

He, Bin; Guan, Yi; Dai, Rui

2018-05-16

Deep learning research on relation classification has achieved solid performance in the general domain. This study proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture with a multi-pooling operation for medical relation classification on clinical records and explores a loss function with a category-level constraint matrix. Experiments using the 2010 i2b2/VA relation corpus demonstrate these models, which do not depend on any external features, outperform previous single-model methods and our best model is competitive with the existing ensemble-based method. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) for food additives.

PubMed

Tennant, David R

2016-05-01

European methods for assessing dietary exposures to nutrients, additives and other substances in food are limited by the availability of detailed food consumption data for all member states. A proposed comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) applies summary data published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) in a deterministic model based on an algorithm from the EFSA intake method for food additives. The proposed approach can predict estimates of food additive exposure provided in previous EFSA scientific opinions that were based on the full European food consumption database.

Markov modeling for the neurosurgeon: a review of the literature and an introduction to cost-effectiveness research.

PubMed

Wali, Arvin R; Brandel, Michael G; Santiago-Dieppa, David R; Rennert, Robert C; Steinberg, Jeffrey A; Hirshman, Brian R; Murphy, James D; Khalessi, Alexander A

2018-05-01

OBJECTIVE Markov modeling is a clinical research technique that allows competing medical strategies to be mathematically assessed in order to identify the optimal allocation of health care resources. The authors present a review of the recently published neurosurgical literature that employs Markov modeling and provide a conceptual framework with which to evaluate, critique, and apply the findings generated from health economics research. METHODS The PubMed online database was searched to identify neurosurgical literature published from January 2010 to December 2017 that had utilized Markov modeling for neurosurgical cost-effectiveness studies. Included articles were then assessed with regard to year of publication, subspecialty of neurosurgery, decision analytical techniques utilized, and source information for model inputs. RESULTS A total of 55 articles utilizing Markov models were identified across a broad range of neurosurgical subspecialties. Sixty-five percent of the papers were published within the past 3 years alone. The majority of models derived health transition probabilities, health utilities, and cost information from previously published studies or publicly available information. Only 62% of the studies incorporated indirect costs. Ninety-three percent of the studies performed a 1-way or 2-way sensitivity analysis, and 67% performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. A review of the conceptual framework of Markov modeling and an explanation of the different terminology and methodology are provided. CONCLUSIONS As neurosurgeons continue to innovate and identify novel treatment strategies for patients, Markov modeling will allow for better characterization of the impact of these interventions on a patient and societal level. The aim of this work is to equip the neurosurgical readership with the tools to better understand, critique, and apply findings produced from cost-effectiveness research.

Percolation of binary disk systems: Modeling and theory

DOE PAGES

Meeks, Kelsey; Tencer, John; Pantoya, Michelle L.

2017-01-12

The dispersion and connectivity of particles with a high degree of polydispersity is relevant to problems involving composite material properties and reaction decomposition prediction and has been the subject of much study in the literature. This paper utilizes Monte Carlo models to predict percolation thresholds for a two-dimensional systems containing disks of two different radii. Monte Carlo simulations and spanning probability are used to extend prior models into regions of higher polydispersity than those previously considered. A correlation to predict the percolation threshold for binary disk systems is proposed based on the extended dataset presented in this work and comparedmore » to previously published correlations. Finally, a set of boundary conditions necessary for a good fit is presented, and a condition for maximizing percolation threshold for binary disk systems is suggested.« less

Impaired spatial processing in a mouse model of fragile X syndrome.

PubMed

Ghilan, Mohamed; Bettio, Luis E B; Noonan, Athena; Brocardo, Patricia S; Gil-Mohapel, Joana; Christie, Brian R

2018-05-17

Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is the most common form of inherited intellectual impairment. The Fmr1 -/y mouse model has been previously shown to have deficits in context discrimination tasks but not in the elevated plus-maze. To further characterize this FXS mouse model and determine whether hippocampal-mediated behaviours are affected in these mice, dentate gyrus (DG)-dependent spatial processing and Cornu ammonis 1 (CA1)-dependent temporal order discrimination tasks were evaluated. In agreement with previous findings of long-term potentiation deficits in the DG of this transgenic model of FXS, the results reported here demonstrate that Fmr1 -/y mice perform poorly in the DG-dependent metric change spatial processing task. However, Fmr1 -/y mice did not present deficits in the CA1-dependent temporal order discrimination task, and were able to remember the order in which objects were presented to them to the same extent as their wild-type littermate controls. These data suggest that the previously reported subregional-specific differences in hippocampal synaptic plasticity observed in the Fmr1 -/y mouse model may manifest as selective behavioural deficits in hippocampal-dependent tasks. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design Evaluation of Wind Turbine Spline Couplings Using an Analytical Model: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Y.; Keller, J.; Wallen, R.

2015-02-01

Articulated splines are commonly used in the planetary stage of wind turbine gearboxes for transmitting the driving torque and improving load sharing. Direct measurement of spline loads and performance is extremely challenging because of limited accessibility. This paper presents an analytical model for the analysis of articulated spline coupling designs. For a given torque and shaft misalignment, this analytical model quickly yields insights into relationships between the spline design parameters and resulting loads; bending, contact, and shear stresses; and safety factors considering various heat treatment methods. Comparisons of this analytical model against previously published computational approaches are also presented.

On the Modeling of Vacuum Arc Remelting Process in Titanium Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Ashish; Fiore, Daniel

2016-07-01

Mathematical modeling is routinely used in the process development and production of advanced aerospace alloys to gain greater insight into the effect of process parameters on final properties. This article describes the application of a 2-D mathematical VAR model presented at previous LMPC meetings. The impact of process parameters on melt pool geometry, solidification behavior, fluid-flow and chemistry in a Ti-6Al-4V ingot is discussed. Model predictions are validated against published data from a industrial size ingot, and results of a parametric study on particle dissolution are also discussed.

Compact determination of hydrogen isotopes

DOE PAGES

Robinson, David

2017-04-06

Scanning calorimetry of a confined, reversible hydrogen sorbent material has been previously proposed as a method to determine compositions of unknown mixtures of diatomic hydrogen isotopologues and helium. Application of this concept could result in greater process knowledge during the handling of these gases. Previously published studies have focused on mixtures that do not include tritium. This paper focuses on modeling to predict the effect of tritium in mixtures of the isotopologues on a calorimetry scan. Furthermore, the model predicts that tritium can be measured with a sensitivity comparable to that observed for hydrogen-deuterium mixtures, and that under so memore » conditions, it may be possible to determine the atomic fractions of all three isotopes in a gas mixture.« less

Direct Comparison of the Precision of the New Hologic Horizon Model With the Old Discovery Model.

PubMed

Whittaker, LaTarsha G; McNamara, Elizabeth A; Vath, Savoun; Shaw, Emily; Malabanan, Alan O; Parker, Robert A; Rosen, Harold N

2017-11-22

Previous publications suggested that the precision of the new Hologic Horizon densitometer might be better than that of the previous Discovery model, but these observations were confounded by not using the same participants and technologists on both densitometers. We sought to study this issue methodically by measuring in vivo precision in both densitometers using the same patients and technologists. Precision studies for the Horizon and Discovery models were done by acquiring spine, hip, and forearm bone mineral density twice on 30 participants. The set of 4 scans on each participant (2 on the Discovery, 2 on the Horizon) was acquired by the same technologist using the same scanning mode. The pairs of data were used to calculate the least significant change according to the International Society for Clinical Densitometry guidelines. The significance of the difference between least significant changes was assessed using a Wilcoxon signed-rank test of the difference between the mean square error of the absolute value of the differences between paired measurements on the Discovery (Δ-Discovery) and the mean square error of the absolute value of the differences between paired measurements on the Horizon (Δ-Horizon). At virtually all anatomic sites, there was a nonsignificant trend for the precision to be better for the Horizon than for the Discovery. As more vertebrae were excluded from analysis, the precision deteriorated on both densitometers. The precision between densitometers was almost identical when reporting only 1 vertebral body. (1) There was a nonsignificant trend for greater precision on the new Hologic Horizon compared with the older Discovery model. (2) The difference in precision of the spine bone mineral density between the Horizon and the Discovery models decreases as fewer vertebrae are included. (3) These findings are substantially similar to previously published results which had not controlled as well for confounding from using different subjects and technologists. Copyright © 2017 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RETRACTED: Flap side edge noise modeling and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yueping

2013-08-01

This article has been retracted: please see Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal (http://www.elsevier.com/locate/withdrawalpolicy).This article has been retracted at the request of the first author because of the overlap with previously published papers. The first author takes full responsibility and sincerely apologizes for the error made.This article has been retracted at the request of the Editor-in-Chief.The article duplicates significant parts of an earlier paper by the same author, published in AIAA (Y.P. Guo, Aircraft flap side edge noise modeling and prediction. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, (2011), 10.2514/6.2011-2731). Prior to republication, conference papers should be comprehensively extended, and re-use of any data should be appropriately cited. As such this article represents a severe abuse of the scientific publishing system. The scientific community takes a very strong view on this matter and apologies are offered to readers of the journal that this was not detected during the submission process.

Model-based analysis of N-glycosylation in Chinese hamster ovary cells

PubMed Central

Krambeck, Frederick J.; Bennun, Sandra V.; Betenbaugh, Michael J.

2017-01-01

The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell is the gold standard for manufacturing of glycosylated recombinant proteins for production of biotherapeutics. The similarity of its glycosylation patterns to the human versions enable the products of this cell line favorable pharmacokinetic properties and lower likelihood of causing immunogenic responses. Because glycan structures are the product of the concerted action of intracellular enzymes, it is difficult to predict a priori how the effects of genetic manipulations alter glycan structures of cells and therapeutic properties. For that reason, quantitative models able to predict glycosylation have emerged as promising tools to deal with the complexity of glycosylation processing. For example, an earlier version of the same model used in this study was used by others to successfully predict changes in enzyme activities that could produce a desired change in glycan structure. In this study we utilize an updated version of this model to provide a comprehensive analysis of N-glycosylation in ten Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell lines that include a wild type parent and nine mutants of CHO, through interpretation of previously published mass spectrometry data. The updated N-glycosylation mathematical model contains up to 50,605 glycan structures. Adjusting the enzyme activities in this model to match N-glycan mass spectra produces detailed predictions of the glycosylation process, enzyme activity profiles and complete glycosylation profiles of each of the cell lines. These profiles are consistent with biochemical and genetic data reported previously. The model-based results also predict glycosylation features of the cell lines not previously published, indicating more complex changes in glycosylation enzyme activities than just those resulting directly from gene mutations. The model predicts that the CHO cell lines possess regulatory mechanisms that allow them to adjust glycosylation enzyme activities to mitigate side effects of the primary loss or gain of glycosylation function known to exist in these mutant cell lines. Quantitative models of CHO cell glycosylation have the potential for predicting how glycoengineering manipulations might affect glycoform distributions to improve the therapeutic performance of glycoprotein products. PMID:28486471

Proving Stabilization of Biological Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Byron; Fisher, Jasmin; Krepska, Elzbieta; Piterman, Nir

We describe an efficient procedure for proving stabilization of biological systems modeled as qualitative networks or genetic regulatory networks. For scalability, our procedure uses modular proof techniques, where state-space exploration is applied only locally to small pieces of the system rather than the entire system as a whole. Our procedure exploits the observation that, in practice, the form of modular proofs can be restricted to a very limited set. For completeness, our technique falls back on a non-compositional counterexample search. Using our new procedure, we have solved a number of challenging published examples, including: a 3-D model of the mammalian epidermis; a model of metabolic networks operating in type-2 diabetes; a model of fate determination of vulval precursor cells in the C. elegans worm; and a model of pair-rule regulation during segmentation in the Drosophila embryo. Our results show many orders of magnitude speedup in cases where previous stabilization proving techniques were known to succeed, and new results in cases where tools had previously failed.

Statistical Models for Predicting Automobile Driving Postures for Men and Women Including Effects of Age.

PubMed

Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

2016-03-01

Previously published statistical models of driving posture have been effective for vehicle design but have not taken into account the effects of age. The present study developed new statistical models for predicting driving posture. Driving postures of 90 U.S. drivers with a wide range of age and body size were measured in laboratory mockup in nine package conditions. Posture-prediction models for female and male drivers were separately developed by employing a stepwise regression technique using age, body dimensions, vehicle package conditions, and two-way interactions, among other variables. Driving posture was significantly associated with age, and the effects of other variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models is presented for women and men. The results are compared with a previously developed model. The present study is the first study of driver posture to include a large cohort of older drivers and the first to report a significant effect of age. The posture-prediction models can be used to position computational human models or crash-test dummies for vehicle design and assessment. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

An international age- and gender-controlled model for the Spinal Cord Injury Ability Realization Measurement Index (SCI-ARMI).

PubMed

Scivoletto, Giorgio; Glass, Clive; Anderson, Kim D; Galili, Tal; Benjamin, Yoav; Front, Lilach; Aidinoff, Elena; Bluvshtein, Vadim; Itzkovich, Malka; Aito, Sergio; Baroncini, Ilaria; Benito-Penalva, Jesùs; Castellano, Simona; Osman, Aheed; Silva, Pedro; Catz, Amiram

2015-01-01

Background. A quadratic formula of the Spinal Cord Injury Ability Realization Measurement Index (SCI-ARMI) has previously been published. This formula was based on a model of Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM95), the 95th percentile of the SCIM III values, which correspond with the American Spinal Injury Association Motor Scores (AMS) of SCI patients. Objective. To further develop the original formula. Setting. Spinal cord injury centers from 6 countries and the Statistical Laboratory, Tel-Aviv University, Israel. Methods. SCIM95 of 661 SCI patients was modeled, using a quantile regression with or without adjustment for age and gender, to calculate SCI-ARMI values. SCI-ARMI gain during rehabilitation and its correlations were examined. Results. A new quadratic SCIM95 model was created. This resembled the previously published model, which yielded similar SCIM95 values in all the countries, after adjustment for age and gender. Without this adjustment, however, only 86% of the non-Israeli SCIM III observations were lower than those SCIM95 values (P < .0001). Adding the variables age and gender to the new model affected the SCIM95 value significantly (P < .04). Adding country information did not add a significant effect (P > .1). SCI-ARMI gain was positive (38.8 ± 22 points, P < .0001) and correlated weakly with admission age and AMS. Conclusions. The original quadratic SCI-ARMI formula is valid for an international population after adjustment for age and gender. The new formula considers more factors that affect functional ability following SCI. © The Author(s) 2014.

A method to investigate the diffusion properties of nuclear calcium.

PubMed

Queisser, Gillian; Wittum, Gabriel

2011-10-01

Modeling biophysical processes in general requires knowledge about underlying biological parameters. The quality of simulation results is strongly influenced by the accuracy of these parameters, hence the identification of parameter values that the model includes is a major part of simulating biophysical processes. In many cases, secondary data can be gathered by experimental setups, which are exploitable by mathematical inverse modeling techniques. Here we describe a method for parameter identification of diffusion properties of calcium in the nuclei of rat hippocampal neurons. The method is based on a Gauss-Newton method for solving a least-squares minimization problem and was formulated in such a way that it is ideally implementable in the simulation platform uG. Making use of independently published space- and time-dependent calcium imaging data, generated from laser-assisted calcium uncaging experiments, here we could identify the diffusion properties of nuclear calcium and were able to validate a previously published model that describes nuclear calcium dynamics as a diffusion process.

When ab ≠ c - c': published errors in the reports of single-mediator models.

PubMed

Petrocelli, John V; Clarkson, Joshua J; Whitmire, Melanie B; Moon, Paul E

2013-06-01

Accurate reports of mediation analyses are critical to the assessment of inferences related to causality, since these inferences are consequential for both the evaluation of previous research (e.g., meta-analyses) and the progression of future research. However, upon reexamination, approximately 15% of published articles in psychology contain at least one incorrect statistical conclusion (Bakker & Wicherts, Behavior research methods, 43, 666-678 2011), disparities that beget the question of inaccuracy in mediation reports. To quantify this question of inaccuracy, articles reporting standard use of single-mediator models in three high-impact journals in personality and social psychology during 2011 were examined. More than 24% of the 156 models coded failed an equivalence test (i.e., ab = c - c'), suggesting that one or more regression coefficients in mediation analyses are frequently misreported. The authors cite common sources of errors, provide recommendations for enhanced accuracy in reports of single-mediator models, and discuss implications for alternative methods.

Observations and Models of the Lunar Sodium Exosphere 1988 - 1999

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Killen, Rosemary; Sarantos, Menelaos; Hurley, Dana M.; Potter, Andrew E.; Morgan, Thomas H.; Farrell, William M.; Naidu, Shantanu

2012-01-01

Sodium in the lunar exosphere is easily observed from the Earth's surface due to its strong resonance emission lines in the visible region of the spectrum. Although sodium is a trace element, it is easily ejected from the surface by a number of processes. The variation of this exospheric constituent both spatially and temporally can help to constrain these sources and the loss processes and their timescales. Due to a revival of interest in the Moon and its volatiles, observations of the lunar exosphere obtained at the McMath-Pierce solar telescope in 1998 and 1999 have recently been reduced and analyzed. In addition, observations of the lunar sodium exosphere obtained with the Mt. Lemmon Lunar Coronagraph on Mt. Lemmon, Arizona, have also been published. We combine these new data with data previously published and reanalyzed by Sarantos et al. This comprehensive data set will be modeled using both a simple Chamberlain exosphere model and a comprehensive Monte Carlo model.

Mixed Model Association with Family-Biased Case-Control Ascertainment.

PubMed

Hayeck, Tristan J; Loh, Po-Ru; Pollack, Samuela; Gusev, Alexander; Patterson, Nick; Zaitlen, Noah A; Price, Alkes L

2017-01-05

Mixed models have become the tool of choice for genetic association studies; however, standard mixed model methods may be poorly calibrated or underpowered under family sampling bias and/or case-control ascertainment. Previously, we introduced a liability threshold-based mixed model association statistic (LTMLM) to address case-control ascertainment in unrelated samples. Here, we consider family-biased case-control ascertainment, where case and control subjects are ascertained non-randomly with respect to family relatedness. Previous work has shown that this type of ascertainment can severely bias heritability estimates; we show here that it also impacts mixed model association statistics. We introduce a family-based association statistic (LT-Fam) that is robust to this problem. Similar to LTMLM, LT-Fam is computed from posterior mean liabilities (PML) under a liability threshold model; however, LT-Fam uses published narrow-sense heritability estimates to avoid the problem of biased heritability estimation, enabling correct calibration. In simulations with family-biased case-control ascertainment, LT-Fam was correctly calibrated (average χ 2 = 1.00-1.02 for null SNPs), whereas the Armitage trend test (ATT), standard mixed model association (MLM), and case-control retrospective association test (CARAT) were mis-calibrated (e.g., average χ 2 = 0.50-1.22 for MLM, 0.89-2.65 for CARAT). LT-Fam also attained higher power than other methods in some settings. In 1,259 type 2 diabetes-affected case subjects and 5,765 control subjects from the CARe cohort, downsampled to induce family-biased ascertainment, LT-Fam was correctly calibrated whereas ATT, MLM, and CARAT were again mis-calibrated. Our results highlight the importance of modeling family sampling bias in case-control datasets with related samples. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Open-Access Modeled Passenger Flow Matrix for the Global Air Network in 2010

PubMed Central

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J.; Fik, Timothy J.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data. PMID:23691194

An open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for the global air network in 2010.

PubMed

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J; Fik, Timothy J; Tatem, Andrew J

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data.

Corvid caching: Insights from a cognitive model.

PubMed

van der Vaart, Elske; Verbrugge, Rineke; Hemelrijk, Charlotte K

2011-07-01

Caching and recovery of food by corvids is well-studied, but some ambiguous results remain. To help clarify these, we built a computational cognitive model. It is inspired by similar models built for humans, and it assumes that memory strength depends on frequency and recency of use. We compared our model's behavior to that of real birds in previously published experiments. Our model successfully replicated the outcomes of two experiments on recovery behavior and two experiments on cache site choice. Our "virtual birds" reproduced declines in recovery accuracy across sessions, revisits to previously emptied cache sites, a lack of correlation between caching and recovery order, and a preference for caching in safe locations. The model also produced two new explanations. First, that Clark's nutcrackers may become less accurate as recovery progresses not because of differential memory for different cache sites, as was once assumed, but because of chance effects. And second, that Western scrub jays may choose their cache sites not on the basis of negative recovery experiences only, as was previously thought, but on the basis of positive recovery experiences instead. Alternatively, both "punishment" and "reward" may be playing a role. We conclude with a set of new insights, a testable prediction, and directions for future work. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Gray Matter Correlates of Fluid, Crystallized, and Spatial Intelligence: Testing the P-FIT Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colom, Roberto; Haier, Richard J.; Head, Kevin; Alvarez-Linera, Juan; Quiroga, Maria Angeles; Shih, Pei Chun; Jung, Rex E.

2009-01-01

The parieto-frontal integration theory (P-FIT) nominates several areas distributed throughout the brain as relevant for intelligence. This theory was derived from previously published studies using a variety of both imaging methods and tests of cognitive ability. Here we test this theory in a new sample of young healthy adults (N = 100) using a…

Schools' Capacity to Absorb a "Healthy School" Approach into Their Operations: Insights from a Realist Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deschesnes, Marthe; Drouin, Nathalie; Tessier, Caroline; Couturier, Yves

2014-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to understand how a Canadian intervention based on a professional development (PD) model did or did not influence schools' capacities to absorb a Healthy School (HS) approach into their operations. This study is the second part of a research project: previously published results regarding this research…

Impact of exchanges and client-therapist alliance in online-text psychotherapy.

PubMed

Reynolds, D'Arcy J; Stiles, William B; Bailer, A John; Hughes, Michael R

2013-05-01

The impact of exchanges and client-therapist alliance of online therapy text exchanges were compared to previously published results in face-to-face therapy, and the moderating effects of four participant factors found significant in previously published face-to-face studies were investigated using statistical mixed-effect modeling analytic techniques. Therapists (N=30) and clients (N=30) engaged in online therapy were recruited from private practitioner sites, e-clinics, online counseling centers, and mental-health-related discussion boards. In a naturalistic design, they each visited an online site weekly and completed the standard impact and alliance questionnaires for at least 6 weeks. Results indicated that the impact of exchanges and client-therapist alliance in text therapy was similar to, but in some respects more positive than, previous evaluations of face-to-face therapy. The significance of participant factors previously found to influence impact and alliance in face-to-face therapy (client symptom severity, social support, therapist theoretical orientation, and therapist experience) was not replicated, except that therapists with the more symptomatic clients rated their text exchanges as less smooth and comfortable. Although its small size and naturalistic design impose limitations on sensitivity and generalizability, this study provides some insights into treatment impact and the alliance in online therapy.

A Comparison of Multivariable Control Design Techniques for a Turbofan Engine Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garg, Sanjay; Watts, Stephen R.

1995-01-01

This paper compares two previously published design procedures for two different multivariable control design techniques for application to a linear engine model of a jet engine. The two multivariable control design techniques compared were the Linear Quadratic Gaussian with Loop Transfer Recovery (LQG/LTR) and the H-Infinity synthesis. The two control design techniques were used with specific previously published design procedures to synthesize controls which would provide equivalent closed loop frequency response for the primary control loops while assuring adequate loop decoupling. The resulting controllers were then reduced in order to minimize the programming and data storage requirements for a typical implementation. The reduced order linear controllers designed by each method were combined with the linear model of an advanced turbofan engine and the system performance was evaluated for the continuous linear system. Included in the performance analysis are the resulting frequency and transient responses as well as actuator usage and rate capability for each design method. The controls were also analyzed for robustness with respect to structured uncertainties in the unmodeled system dynamics. The two controls were then compared for performance capability and hardware implementation issues.

Examining the relationship between the prevalence of guns and homicide rates in the USA using a new and improved state-level gun ownership proxy.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; Ross, Craig S; King, Charles

2014-12-01

Determining the relationship between gun ownership levels and firearm homicide rates is critical to inform public health policy. Previous research has shown that state-level gun ownership, as measured by a widely used proxy, is positively associated with firearm homicide rates. A newly developed proxy measure that incorporates the hunting license rate in addition to the proportion of firearm suicides correlates more highly with state-level gun ownership. To corroborate previous research, we used this new proxy to estimate the association of state-level gun ownership with total, firearm, and non-firearm homicides. Using state-specific data for the years 1981-2010, we modelled these rates as a function of gun ownership level, controlling for potential confounding factors. We used a negative binomial regression model and accounted for clustering of observations among states. We found that state-level gun ownership as measured by the new proxy, is significantly associated with firearm and total homicides but not with non-firearm homicides. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Ranking predatory journals in dermatology: distinguishing the bad from the ugly.

PubMed

Tosti, Antonella; Maddy, Austin J

2017-07-01

The scientific community depends on high-quality peer-reviewed research, which is being polluted with pseudoscience published in fake journals that have exploited the open-access model. This "predatory publishing" has made its way into the field of dermatology. In a recent study, we identified and listed these journals. The "predatory rate" was calculated for 76 journals in order to rank the journals based on specific criteria associated with unethical publishing. Of the 76 journals, 89.5% were classified as predatory journals and the remaining as journals involved in predatory practices. The field of dermatology is not immune to predatory publishers. This study validates Beall's list as well as other previous studies. Strategies to a solution include spreading awareness throughout academic institutions and dermatology departments as well as avoiding publishers that are involved in predatory practices. However, some journals may be able to make necessary adjustments and become legitimate contributors to the field. © 2017 The International Society of Dermatology.

Validation of a Clinical Scoring System for Outcome Prediction in Dogs with Acute Kidney Injury Managed by Hemodialysis.

PubMed

Segev, G; Langston, C; Takada, K; Kass, P H; Cowgill, L D

2016-05-01

A scoring system for outcome prediction in dogs with acute kidney injury (AKI) recently has been developed but has not been validated. The scoring system previously developed for outcome prediction will accurately predict outcome in a validation cohort of dogs with AKI managed with hemodialysis. One hundred fifteen client-owned dogs with AKI. Medical records of dogs with AKI treated by hemodialysis between 2011 and 2015 were reviewed. Dogs were included only if all variables required to calculate the final predictive score were available, and the 30-day outcome was known. A predictive score for 3 models was calculated for each dog. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of the final predictive score with each model's outcome. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analyses were performed to determine sensitivity and specificity for each model based on previously established cut-off values. Higher scores for each model were associated with decreased survival probability (P < .001). Based on previously established cut-off values, 3 models (models A, B, C) were associated with sensitivities/specificities of 73/75%, 71/80%, and 75/86%, respectively, and correctly classified 74-80% of the dogs. All models were simple to apply and allowed outcome prediction that closely corresponded with actual outcome in an independent cohort. As expected, accuracies were slightly lower compared with those from the previously reported cohort used initially to develop the models. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Numerical comparison of grid pattern diffraction effects through measurement and modeling with OptiScan software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Ian B.; Densmore, Victor; Bora, Vaibhav; Pieratt, Matthew W.; Hibbard, Douglas L.; Milster, Tom D.

2011-06-01

Coatings of various metalized patterns are used for heating and electromagnetic interference (EMI) shielding applications. Previous work has focused on macro differences between different types of grids, and has shown good correlation between measurements and analyses of grid diffraction. To advance this work, we have utilized the University of Arizona's OptiScan software, which has been optimized for this application by using the Babinet Principle. When operating on an appropriate computer system, this algorithm produces results hundreds of times faster than standard Fourier-based methods, and allows realistic cases to be modeled for the first time. By using previously published derivations by Exotic Electro-Optics, we compare diffraction performance of repeating and randomized grid patterns with equivalent sheet resistance using numerical performance metrics. Grid patterns of each type are printed on optical substrates and measured energy is compared against modeled energy.

Ecological Momentary Assessments and Automated Time Series Analysis to Promote Tailored Health Care: A Proof-of-Principle Study.

PubMed

van der Krieke, Lian; Emerencia, Ando C; Bos, Elisabeth H; Rosmalen, Judith Gm; Riese, Harriëtte; Aiello, Marco; Sytema, Sjoerd; de Jonge, Peter

2015-08-07

Health promotion can be tailored by combining ecological momentary assessments (EMA) with time series analysis. This combined method allows for studying the temporal order of dynamic relationships among variables, which may provide concrete indications for intervention. However, application of this method in health care practice is hampered because analyses are conducted manually and advanced statistical expertise is required. This study aims to show how this limitation can be overcome by introducing automated vector autoregressive modeling (VAR) of EMA data and to evaluate its feasibility through comparisons with results of previously published manual analyses. We developed a Web-based open source application, called AutoVAR, which automates time series analyses of EMA data and provides output that is intended to be interpretable by nonexperts. The statistical technique we used was VAR. AutoVAR tests and evaluates all possible VAR models within a given combinatorial search space and summarizes their results, thereby replacing the researcher's tasks of conducting the analysis, making an informed selection of models, and choosing the best model. We compared the output of AutoVAR to the output of a previously published manual analysis (n=4). An illustrative example consisting of 4 analyses was provided. Compared to the manual output, the AutoVAR output presents similar model characteristics and statistical results in terms of the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the test statistic of the Granger causality test. Results suggest that automated analysis and interpretation of times series is feasible. Compared to a manual procedure, the automated procedure is more robust and can save days of time. These findings may pave the way for using time series analysis for health promotion on a larger scale. AutoVAR was evaluated using the results of a previously conducted manual analysis. Analysis of additional datasets is needed in order to validate and refine the application for general use.

Ecological Momentary Assessments and Automated Time Series Analysis to Promote Tailored Health Care: A Proof-of-Principle Study

PubMed Central

Emerencia, Ando C; Bos, Elisabeth H; Rosmalen, Judith GM; Riese, Harriëtte; Aiello, Marco; Sytema, Sjoerd; de Jonge, Peter

2015-01-01

Background Health promotion can be tailored by combining ecological momentary assessments (EMA) with time series analysis. This combined method allows for studying the temporal order of dynamic relationships among variables, which may provide concrete indications for intervention. However, application of this method in health care practice is hampered because analyses are conducted manually and advanced statistical expertise is required. Objective This study aims to show how this limitation can be overcome by introducing automated vector autoregressive modeling (VAR) of EMA data and to evaluate its feasibility through comparisons with results of previously published manual analyses. Methods We developed a Web-based open source application, called AutoVAR, which automates time series analyses of EMA data and provides output that is intended to be interpretable by nonexperts. The statistical technique we used was VAR. AutoVAR tests and evaluates all possible VAR models within a given combinatorial search space and summarizes their results, thereby replacing the researcher’s tasks of conducting the analysis, making an informed selection of models, and choosing the best model. We compared the output of AutoVAR to the output of a previously published manual analysis (n=4). Results An illustrative example consisting of 4 analyses was provided. Compared to the manual output, the AutoVAR output presents similar model characteristics and statistical results in terms of the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the test statistic of the Granger causality test. Conclusions Results suggest that automated analysis and interpretation of times series is feasible. Compared to a manual procedure, the automated procedure is more robust and can save days of time. These findings may pave the way for using time series analysis for health promotion on a larger scale. AutoVAR was evaluated using the results of a previously conducted manual analysis. Analysis of additional datasets is needed in order to validate and refine the application for general use. PMID:26254160

Reference Accuracy among Research Articles Published in "Research on Social Work Practice"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilks, Scott E.; Geiger, Jennifer R.; Bates, Samantha M.; Wright, Amy L.

2017-01-01

Objective: The objective was to examine reference errors in research articles published in Research on Social Work Practice. High rates of reference errors in other top social work journals have been noted in previous studies. Methods: Via a sampling frame of 22,177 total references among 464 research articles published in the previous decade, a…

Human neutrophil kinetics: modeling of stable isotope labeling data supports short blood neutrophil half-lives.

PubMed

Lahoz-Beneytez, Julio; Elemans, Marjet; Zhang, Yan; Ahmed, Raya; Salam, Arafa; Block, Michael; Niederalt, Christoph; Asquith, Becca; Macallan, Derek

2016-06-30

Human neutrophils have traditionally been thought to have a short half-life in blood; estimates vary from 4 to 18 hours. This dogma was recently challenged by stable isotope labeling studies with heavy water, which yielded estimates in excess of 3 days. To investigate this disparity, we generated new stable isotope labeling data in healthy adult subjects using both heavy water (n = 4) and deuterium-labeled glucose (n = 9), a compound with more rapid labeling kinetics. To interpret results, we developed a novel mechanistic model and applied it to previously published (n = 5) and newly generated data. We initially constrained the ratio of the blood neutrophil pool to the marrow precursor pool (ratio = 0.26; from published values). Analysis of heavy water data sets yielded turnover rates consistent with a short blood half-life, but parameters, particularly marrow transit time, were poorly defined. Analysis of glucose-labeling data yielded more precise estimates of half-life (0.79 ± 0.25 days; 19 hours) and marrow transit time (5.80 ± 0.42 days). Substitution of this marrow transit time in the heavy water analysis gave a better-defined blood half-life of 0.77 ± 0.14 days (18.5 hours), close to glucose-derived values. Allowing the ratio of blood neutrophils to mitotic neutrophil precursors (R) to vary yielded a best-fit value of 0.19. Reanalysis of the previously published model and data also revealed the origin of their long estimates for neutrophil half-life: an implicit assumption that R is very large, which is physiologically untenable. We conclude that stable isotope labeling in healthy humans is consistent with a blood neutrophil half-life of less than 1 day. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology.

Gryphon: A Hybrid Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Platform for Infectious Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Bin; Wang, Jijun; McGowan, Michael; Vaidyanathan, Ganesh; Younger, Kristofer

In this paper we present Gryphon, a hybrid agent-based stochastic modeling and simulation platform developed for characterizing the geographic spread of infectious diseases and the effects of interventions. We study both local and non-local transmission dynamics of stochastic simulations based on the published parameters and data for SARS. The results suggest that the expected numbers of infections and the timeline of control strategies predicted by our stochastic model are in reasonably good agreement with previous studies. These preliminary results indicate that Gryphon is able to characterize other future infectious diseases and identify endangered regions in advance.

Mathematical model of a gene regulatory network reconciles effects of genetic perturbations on hematopoietic stem cell emergence.

PubMed

Narula, Jatin; Williams, C J; Tiwari, Abhinav; Marks-Bluth, Jonathon; Pimanda, John E; Igoshin, Oleg A

2013-07-15

Interlinked gene regulatory networks (GRNs) are vital for the spatial and temporal control of gene expression during development. The hematopoietic transcription factors (TFs) Scl, Gata2 and Fli1 form one such densely connected GRN which acts as a master regulator of embryonic hematopoiesis. This triad has been shown to direct the specification of the hemogenic endothelium and emergence of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in response to Notch1 and Bmp4-Smad signaling. Here we employ previously published data to construct a mathematical model of this GRN network and use this model to systematically investigate the network dynamical properties. Our model uses a statistical-thermodynamic framework to describe the combinatorial regulation of gene expression and reconciles, mechanistically, several previously published but unexplained results from different genetic perturbation experiments. In particular, our results demonstrate how the interactions of Runx1, an essential hematopoietic TF, with components of the Bmp4 signaling pathway allow it to affect triad activation and acts as a key regulator of HSC emergence. We also explain why heterozygous deletion of this essential TF, Runx1, speeds up the network dynamics leading to accelerated HSC emergence. Taken together our results demonstrate that the triad, a master-level controller of definitive hematopoiesis, is an irreversible bistable switch whose dynamical properties are modulated by Runx1 and components of the Bmp4 signaling pathway. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low-Temperature Thermochronology of Borehole and Surface Samples From the Wind River and Beartooth Laramide Ranges, Wyoming and Montana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peyton, S. L.; Reiners, P. W.

2007-12-01

We dated borehole and surface samples from the Wind River and Beartooth Laramide-age, basement-cored uplifts of the Rocky Mountain foreland using the apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) system. Comparison of these results to previously published apatite fission-track (AFT) data along with the incorporation of new He diffusion models (Shuster et al., 2006), reveals several new insights into, and poses new interpretational challenges for, the shallow exhumation histories of these ranges. Deep (2.2-2.8 km below surface) borehole samples from the Wind River Range have AHe ages of 9-12 Ma, and suggest at least 600 m of rapid exhumation during the Miocene. Shallower samples range from 35-66 Ma and are consistent with exhumation of a fossil partial retention zone. Previously-published apatite fission track (AFT) data from the same borehole show at least 2 km of rapid exhumation at ~45-38 Ma at depths where AHe ages are 9-50 Ma. This contrasts with the AHe ages which show slow exhumation between 12-66 Ma and have a trend on an age-elevation plot that appears to cut across the AFT age trend. Forward modeling of the cooling ages of these data using well-constrained thermal histories and conventional Durango apatite He diffusion data cannot explain these coupled AFT-AHe age-elevation relationships. However, modeling using diffusion kinetics of the Shuster et al. radiation-damage trapping model can explain the observed age trends, including the apparent presence of a 45-38 Ma exhumation event in the AFT data and its absence in the AHe data. In the model the shallow samples do not reach high enough temperatures for annealing of accumulated radiation damage, so He is trapped and ages are much older than predicted by conventional diffusion models. Previously-published AFT data from the Beartooth Range also show a large Laramide-age exhumation event, dated at 57-52 Ma. Similar to our observations from the Wind River Range, this event is not represented in our AHe results from borehole samples, which instead show slow cooling between at least 63-10 Ma. The trapping model predicts that the observed AHe age of a single apatite grain will be proportional to its effective Uranium content (eU), a proxy for radiation damage. Multiple single-grain replicates from a sample from the Wind River borehole are consistent with this, showing a strong correlation with eU. Although the trapping-diffusion model explains the coupled AFT-AHe data of borehole samples, surface samples from the Fremont Peak area in the Wind River Range have AHe ages that are older than the corresponding previously-published AFT ages over the 1.2 km elevation traverse sampled. AFT ages show ~1 km of rapid exhumation at ~62-58 Ma; corresponding AHe ages are as much as 20 Myr older. Although the radiation damage trapping model predicts that some AHe ages may be older than the corresponding AFT ages, thermal- diffusion forward models cannot explain these large age differences over such a large sampling interval, even if trapping model kinetic parameters are varied by 5%. Thus, discrepancies in AFT and AHe ages of these surficial samples remain problematic. The thermal histories required to approximate the borehole data require burial up to the end of the Cretaceous of ~3-4 km followed by at least two phases of cooling and exhumation. The first and larger cooling event of several tens of degrees (~3-4 km of exhumation) occurred during the Paleocene-Eocene, followed by a smaller cooling event of a few tens of degrees (~1 km of exhumation) during the Miocene.

Equations based on anthropometry to predict body fat measured by absorptiometry in schoolchildren and adolescents.

PubMed

Ortiz-Hernández, Luis; Vega López, A Valeria; Ramos-Ibáñez, Norma; Cázares Lara, L Joana; Medina Gómez, R Joab; Pérez-Salgado, Diana

To develop and validate equations to estimate the percentage of body fat of children and adolescents from Mexico using anthropometric measurements. A cross-sectional study was carried out with 601 children and adolescents from Mexico aged 5-19 years. The participants were randomly divided into the following two groups: the development sample (n=398) and the validation sample (n=203). The validity of previously published equations (e.g., Slaughter) was also assessed. The percentage of body fat was estimated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The anthropometric measurements included height, sitting height, weight, waist and arm circumferences, skinfolds (triceps, biceps, subscapular, supra-iliac, and calf), and elbow and bitrochanteric breadth. Linear regression models were estimated with the percentage of body fat as the dependent variable and the anthropometric measurements as the independent variables. Equations were created based on combinations of six to nine anthropometric variables and had coefficients of determination (r 2 ) equal to or higher than 92.4% for boys and 85.8% for girls. In the validation sample, the developed equations had high r 2 values (≥85.6% in boys and ≥78.1% in girls) in all age groups, low standard errors (SE≤3.05% in boys and ≤3.52% in girls), and the intercepts were not different from the origin (p>0.050). Using the previously published equations, the coefficients of determination were lower, and/or the intercepts were different from the origin. The equations developed in this study can be used to assess the percentage of body fat of Mexican schoolchildren and adolescents, as they demonstrate greater validity and lower error compared with previously published equations. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Book Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clevers, J. G. P. W.

2015-02-01

About thirty years after the previous advanced textbook on Microwave Remote Sensing by Ulaby, Moore and Fung has been published as three separate volumes, now an up-to-date new textbook has been published. The 1000-page book covers theoretical models, system design and operation, and geoscientific applications of active and passive microwave remote sensing systems. It is designed as a textbook at the postgraduate level, as well as a reference for the practicing professional. The book is caught by a thorough introduction into the physics and mathematics of electrical engineering applied to microwave radiation. Here on overview of its chapters with a short description of its focus will be given.

Kinetic modelling of a diesel-polluted clayey soil bioremediation process.

PubMed

Fernández, Engracia Lacasa; Merlo, Elena Moliterni; Mayor, Lourdes Rodríguez; Camacho, José Villaseñor

2016-07-01

A mathematical model is proposed to describe a diesel-polluted clayey soil bioremediation process. The reaction system under study was considered a completely mixed closed batch reactor, which initially contacted a soil matrix polluted with diesel hydrocarbons, an aqueous liquid-specific culture medium and a microbial inoculation. The model coupled the mass transfer phenomena and the distribution of hydrocarbons among four phases (solid, S; water, A; non-aqueous liquid, NAPL; and air, V) with Monod kinetics. In the first step, the model simulating abiotic conditions was used to estimate only the mass transfer coefficients. In the second step, the model including both mass transfer and biodegradation phenomena was used to estimate the biological kinetic and stoichiometric parameters. In both situations, the model predictions were validated with experimental data that corresponded to previous research by the same authors. A correct fit between the model predictions and the experimental data was observed because the modelling curves captured the major trends for the diesel distribution in each phase. The model parameters were compared to different previously reported values found in the literature. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to show the reproducibility level of the model. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Constraining proposed combinations of ice history and Earth rheology using VLBI determined baseline length rates in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitrovica, J. X.; Davis, J. L.; Shapiro, I. I.

1993-01-01

We predict the present-day rates of change of the lengths of 19 North American baselines due to the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Contrary to previously published research, we find that the three dimensional motion of each of the sites defining a baseline, rather than only the radial motions of these sites, needs to be considered to obtain an accurate estimate of the rate of change of the baseline length. Predictions are generated using a suite of Earth models and late Pleistocene ice histories, these include specific combinations of the two which have been proposed in the literature as satisfying a variety of rebound related geophysical observations from the North American region. A number of these published models are shown to predict rates which differ significantly from the VLBI observations.

Hydrodynamic and Chemical Factors in Clogging by Montmorillonite in Porous Media

PubMed Central

Mays, David C.; Hunt, James R.

2008-01-01

Clogging by colloid deposits is important in water treatment filters, groundwater aquifers, and petroleum reservoirs. The complexity of colloid deposition and deposit morphology preclude models based on first principles, so this study extends an empirical approach to quantify clogging using a simple, one-parameter model. Experiments were conducted with destabilized suspensions of sodium- and calcium-montmorillonite to quantify the hydrodynamic and chemical factors important in clogging. Greater clogging is observed at slower fluid velocity, consistent with previous investigations. However, calcium-montmorillonite causes one order of magnitude less clogging per mass of deposited particles compared to sodium-montmorillonite or a previously published summary of clogging in model granular media. Steady state conditions, in which the permeability and the quantity of deposited material are both constant, were not observed, even though the experimental conditions were optimized for that purpose. These results indicate that hydrodynamic aspects of clogging by these natural materials are consistent with those of simplified model systems, and they demonstrate significant chemical effects on clogging for fully destabilized montmorillonite clay. PMID:17874771

Hydrodynamic and chemical factors in clogging by montmorillonite in porous media.

PubMed

Mays, David C; Hunt, James R

2007-08-15

Clogging by colloid deposits is important in water treatment filters, groundwater aquifers, and petroleum reservoirs. The complexity of colloid deposition and deposit morphology preclude models based on first principles, so this study extends an empirical approach to quantify clogging using a simple, one-parameter model. Experiments were conducted with destabilized suspensions of sodium- and calcium-montmorillonite to quantify the hydrodynamic and chemical factors important in clogging. Greater clogging is observed at slower fluid velocity, consistent with previous investigations. However, calcium-montmorillonite causes 1 order of magnitude less clogging per mass of deposited particles compared to sodium-montmorillonite or a previously published summary of clogging in model granular media. Steady-state conditions, in which the permeability and the quantity of deposited material are both constant, were not observed, even though the experimental conditions were optimized for that purpose. These results indicate that hydrodynamic aspects of clogging by these natural materials are consistent with those of simplified model systems, and they demonstrate significant chemical effects on clogging for fully destabilized montmorillonite clay.

Stellar models for a wide range of initial chemical compositions until helium burning IV. From X = 0.65 to X = 0.80, for Z = 0.004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claret, A.; Gimenez, A.

1998-11-01

As a continuation of previous papers in a series devoted to the computation of stellar structure and evolution models we present a grid specifically obtained for detailed studies of the stellar content of the Small Magellanic Cloud. The initial metal content has thus been adopted to be Z = 0.004 while the hydrogen content varies from 0.65 to 0.80 leaving as an intermediate value that given by standard laws of enrichment, X = 0.744. Interpolation for different environment is therefore possible with these new models. Other input physics parameters, e.g. convective overshooting, mixing-length, opacities or nuclear reaction rates, have been adopted to be homogeneous with the previously published models in order to facilitate comparative studies. Tables 1-72 are only available in electronic form at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/Abstract.html}

Genital Chlamydia trachomatis Infections Clear More Slowly in Men Than Women, but Are Less Likely to Become Established.

PubMed

Lewis, Joanna; Price, Malcolm J; Horner, Paddy J; White, Peter J

2017-07-15

Rigorous estimates for clearance rates of untreated chlamydia infections are important for understanding chlamydia epidemiology and designing control interventions, but were previously only available for women. We used data from published studies of chlamydia-infected men who were retested at a later date without having received treatment. Our analysis allowed new infections to take one of 1, 2, or 3 courses, each clearing at a different rate. We determined which of these 3 models had the most empirical support. The best-fitting model had 2 courses of infection in men, as was previously found for women: "slow-clearing" and "fast-clearing." Only 68% (57%-78%) (posterior median and 95% credible interval [CrI]) of incident infections in men were slow-clearing, vs 77% (69%-84%) in women. The slow clearance rate in men (based on 6 months' follow-up) was 0.35 (.05-1.15) year-1 (posterior median and 95% CrI), corresponding to mean infection duration 2.84 (.87-18.79) years. This compares to 1.35 (1.13-1.63) years in women. Our estimated clearance rate is slower than previously assumed. Fewer infections become established in men than women but once established, they clear more slowly. This study provides an improved description of chlamydia's natural history to inform public health decision making. We describe how further data collection could reduce uncertainty in estimates. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Physiologically based Pharmacokinetic Modeling of 1,4-Dioxane in Rats, Mice, and Humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sweeney, Lisa M.; Thrall, Karla D.; Poet, Torka S.

2008-01-01

ABSTRACT 1,4-Dioxane (CAS No. 123-91-1) is used primarily as a solvent or as a solvent stabilizer. It can cause lung, liver and kidney damage at sufficiently high exposure levels. Two physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models of 1,4-dioxane and its major metabolite, hydroxyethoxyacetic acid (HEAA), were published in 1990. These models have uncertainties and deficiencies that could be addressed and the model strengthened for use in a contemporary cancer risk assessment for 1,4-dioxane. Studies were performed to fill data gaps and reduce uncertainties pertaining to the pharmacokinetics of 1,4-dioxane and HEAA in rats, mice, and humans. Three types of studies were performed:partitionmore » coefficient measurements, blood time course in mice, and in vitro pharmacokinetics using rat, mouse, and human hepatocytes. Updated PBPK models were developed based on these new data and previously available data. The optimized rate of metabolism for the mouse was significantly higher than the value previously estimated. The optimized rat kinetic parameters were similar to those in the 1990 models. Only two human studies were identified. Model predictions were consistent with one study, but did not fit the second as well. In addition, a rat nasal exposure was completed. The results confirmed water directly contacts rat nasal tissues during drinking water under bioassays. Consistent with previous PBPK models, nasal tissues were not specifically included in the model. Use of these models will reduce the uncertainty in future 1,4-dioxane risk assessments.« less

Tracing regulatory routes in metabolism using generalised supply-demand analysis.

PubMed

Christensen, Carl D; Hofmeyr, Jan-Hendrik S; Rohwer, Johann M

2015-12-03

Generalised supply-demand analysis is a conceptual framework that views metabolism as a molecular economy. Metabolic pathways are partitioned into so-called supply and demand blocks that produce and consume a particular intermediate metabolite. By studying the response of these reaction blocks to perturbations in the concentration of the linking metabolite, different regulatory routes of interaction between the metabolite and its supply and demand blocks can be identified and their contribution quantified. These responses are mediated not only through direct substrate/product interactions, but also through allosteric effects. Here we subject previously published kinetic models of pyruvate metabolism in Lactococcus lactis and aspartate-derived amino acid synthesis in Arabidopsis thaliana to generalised supply-demand analysis. Multiple routes of regulation are brought about by different mechanisms in each model, leading to behavioural and regulatory patterns that are generally difficult to predict from simple inspection of the reaction networks depicting the models. In the pyruvate model the moiety-conserved cycles of ATP/ADP and NADH/NAD(+) allow otherwise independent metabolic branches to communicate. This causes the flux of one ATP-producing reaction block to increase in response to an increasing ATP/ADP ratio, while an NADH-consuming block flux decreases in response to an increasing NADH/NAD(+) ratio for certain ratio value ranges. In the aspartate model, aspartate semialdehyde can inhibit its supply block directly or by increasing the concentration of two amino acids (Lys and Thr) that occur as intermediates in demand blocks and act as allosteric inhibitors of isoenzymes in the supply block. These different routes of interaction from aspartate semialdehyde are each seen to contribute differently to the regulation of the aspartate semialdehyde supply block. Indirect routes of regulation between a metabolic intermediate and a reaction block that either produces or consumes this intermediate can play a much larger regulatory role than routes mediated through direct interactions. These indirect routes of regulation can also result in counter-intuitive metabolic behaviour. Performing generalised supply-demand analysis on two previously published models demonstrated the utility of this method as an entry point in the analysis of metabolic behaviour and the potential for obtaining novel results from previously analysed models by using new approaches.

Residents' performance in open versus laparoscopic bench-model cholecystectomy in a hands-on surgical course.

PubMed

Nebiker, Christian Andreas; Mechera, Robert; Rosenthal, Rachel; Thommen, Sarah; Marti, Walter Richard; von Holzen, Urs; Oertli, Daniel; Vogelbach, Peter

2015-07-01

Laparoscopy has become the gold standard for many abdominal procedures. Among young surgeons, experience in laparoscopic surgery increasingly outweighs experience in open surgery. This study was conducted to compare residents' performance in laparoscopic versus open bench-model task. In an international surgical skills course, we compared trainees' performance in open versus laparoscopic cholecystectomy in a cadaveric animal bench-model. Both exercises were evaluated by board-certified surgeons using an 8-item checklist and by the trainees themselves. 238 trainees with a median surgical experience of 24 months (interquartile range 14-48) took part. Twenty-two percent of the trainees had no previous laparoscopic and 62% no previous open cholecystectomy experience. Significant differences were found in the overall score (median difference of 1 (95% CI: 1, 1), p < 0.001), gallbladder perforation rate (73% vs. 29%, p < 0.001), safe dissection of the Calot's triangle (98% vs. 90%, p = 0.001) and duration of surgery (42 (13) minutes vs. 26 (10) minutes (mean differences 17.22 (95% CI: 15.37, 19.07), p < 0.001)), all favouring open surgery. The perforation rate in open and laparoscopic cholecystectomies was not consistently decreasing with increasing years of experience or number of previously performed procedures. Self-assessment was lower than the assessment by board-certified surgeons. Despite lower experience in open compared to laparoscopic cholecystectomy, better performance was observed in open task. It may be explained by a wider access with easier preparation. Open cholecystectomy is the rescue manoeuvre and therefore, it is important to provide also enough training opportunities in open surgery. Copyright © 2015 IJS Publishing Group Limited. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A prediction model for early death in non-small cell lung cancer patients following curative-intent chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Jochems, Arthur; El-Naqa, Issam; Kessler, Marc; Mayo, Charles S; Jolly, Shruti; Matuszak, Martha; Faivre-Finn, Corinne; Price, Gareth; Holloway, Lois; Vinod, Shalini; Field, Matthew; Barakat, Mohamed Samir; Thwaites, David; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Dekker, Andre; Lambin, Philippe

2018-02-01

Early death after a treatment can be seen as a therapeutic failure. Accurate prediction of patients at risk for early mortality is crucial to avoid unnecessary harm and reducing costs. The goal of our work is two-fold: first, to evaluate the performance of a previously published model for early death in our cohorts. Second, to develop a prognostic model for early death prediction following radiotherapy. Patients with NSCLC treated with chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone were included in this study. Four different cohorts from different countries were available for this work (N = 1540). The previous model used age, gender, performance status, tumor stage, income deprivation, no previous treatment given (yes/no) and body mass index to make predictions. A random forest model was developed by learning on the Maastro cohort (N = 698). The new model used performance status, age, gender, T and N stage, total tumor volume (cc), total tumor dose (Gy) and chemotherapy timing (none, sequential, concurrent) to make predictions. Death within 4 months of receiving the first radiotherapy fraction was used as the outcome. Early death rates ranged from 6 to 11% within the four cohorts. The previous model performed with AUC values ranging from 0.54 to 0.64 on the validation cohorts. Our newly developed model had improved AUC values ranging from 0.62 to 0.71 on the validation cohorts. Using advanced machine learning methods and informative variables, prognostic models for early mortality can be developed. Development of accurate prognostic tools for early mortality is important to inform patients about treatment options and optimize care.

Modeling the Water - Quality Effects of Changes to the Klamath River Upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Annett B.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The Link River to Keno Dam (Link-Keno) reach of the Klamath River, Oregon, generally has periods of water-quality impairment during summer, including low dissolved oxygen, elevated concentrations of ammonia and algae, and high pH. Efforts are underway to improve water quality in this reach through a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program and other management and operational actions. To assist in planning, a hydrodynamic and water-quality model was used in this study to provide insight about how various actions could affect water quality in the reach. These model scenarios used a previously developed and calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model of the Link-Keno reach developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Watercourse Engineering Inc., and the Bureau of Reclamation for calendar years 2006-09 (referred to as the "USGS model" in this report). Another model of the same river reach was previously developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. and the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality for years 2000 and 2002 and was used in the TMDL process; that model is referred to as the "TMDL model" in this report. This report includes scenarios that (1) assess the effect of TMDL allocations on water quality, (2) provide insight on certain aspects of the TMDL model, (3) assess various methods to improve water quality in this reach, and (4) examine possible water-quality effects of a future warmer climate. Results presented in this report for the first 5 scenarios supersede or augment those that were previously published (scenarios 1 and 2 in Sullivan and others [2011], 3 through 5 in Sullivan and others [2012]); those previous results are still valid, but the results for those scenarios in this report are more current.

A prospective gating method to acquire a diverse set of free-breathing CT images for model-based 4DCT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, D.; Ruan, D.; Thomas, D. H.; Dou, T. H.; Lewis, J. H.; Santhanam, A.; Lee, P.; Low, D. A.

2018-02-01

Breathing motion modeling requires observation of tissues at sufficiently distinct respiratory states for proper 4D characterization. This work proposes a method to improve sampling of the breathing cycle with limited imaging dose. We designed and tested a prospective free-breathing acquisition protocol with a simulation using datasets from five patients imaged with a model-based 4DCT technique. Each dataset contained 25 free-breathing fast helical CT scans with simultaneous breathing surrogate measurements. Tissue displacements were measured using deformable image registration. A correspondence model related tissue displacement to the surrogate. Model residual was computed by comparing predicted displacements to image registration results. To determine a stopping criteria for the prospective protocol, i.e. when the breathing cycle had been sufficiently sampled, subsets of N scans where 5  ⩽  N  ⩽  9 were used to fit reduced models for each patient. A previously published metric was employed to describe the phase coverage, or ‘spread’, of the respiratory trajectories of each subset. Minimum phase coverage necessary to achieve mean model residual within 0.5 mm of the full 25-scan model was determined and used as the stopping criteria. Using the patient breathing traces, a prospective acquisition protocol was simulated. In all patients, phase coverage greater than the threshold necessary for model accuracy within 0.5 mm of the 25 scan model was achieved in six or fewer scans. The prospectively selected respiratory trajectories ranked in the (97.5  ±  4.2)th percentile among subsets of the originally sampled scans on average. Simulation results suggest that the proposed prospective method provides an effective means to sample the breathing cycle with limited free-breathing scans. One application of the method is to reduce the imaging dose of a previously published model-based 4DCT protocol to 25% of its original value while achieving mean model residual within 0.5 mm.

Cost utility and budget impact of third-generation aromatase inhibitors for advanced breast cancer: a literature-based model analysis of costs in the Italian National Health Service.

PubMed

Marchetti, Monia; Caruggi, Mauro; Colombo, Giorgio

2004-09-01

Third-generation aromatase inhibitors are effective alternatives to tamoxifen in patients with advanced breast cancer. However, their acquisition costs might burden fixed-budget health care systems. This study is a decision analysis of the clinical and economic consequences of alternative first-line hormone therapies for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor-positive metastatic breast cancer in a real-life Italian health care setting. A Markov model was developed to describe disease evolution according to data from previously published, randomized clinical trials. The costs incurred by a local community hospital in the Italian National Health Service were considered (year-2003 values). Clinical data were taken from previously published trials. A 3% discount rate was applied to both resources and life-years gained. Based on model estimates, mean survival times with the third-generation aromatase inhibitors anastrozole and letrozole were 30.72 and 30.64 months, respectively, as opposed to 27.28 months with tamoxifen. Mean survival times after adjustment for quality of life were 18.84 and 18.78 months with anastrozole and letrozole, respectively, and 16.14 months with tamoxifen. Baseline analysis produced incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 10,795 Euro (95% CI, 7737 Euro-12,899 Euro) and 16,886 Euro (95% CI, 9117 Euro-15,465 Euro) for anastrozole and letrozole, respectively, compared with tamoxifen. The observed difference between the 2 cost-utility ratios may have been mainly due to the higher acquisition costs of letrozole compared with anastrozole. Despite similar incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, anastrozole and letrozole might increase the budget for advanced breast cancer care by 12% and 18%, respectively, based on the year-2003 Italian market prices of the 2 drugs. In this cost-effectiveness analysis using previously published clinical data and year-2003 cost data from a community hospital in the Italian National Health Service, anastrozole and letrozole were both cost-effective alternatives to tamoxifen for first-line therapy of postmenopausal women with advanced estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

Cost Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination: A Systematic Review of Modelling Approaches.

PubMed

Pink, Joshua; Parker, Ben; Petrou, Stavros

2016-09-01

A large number of economic evaluations have been published that assess alternative possible human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Understanding differences in the modelling methodologies used in these studies is important to assess the accuracy, comparability and generalisability of their results. The aim of this review was to identify published economic models of HPV vaccination programmes and understand how characteristics of these studies vary by geographical area, date of publication and the policy question being addressed. We performed literature searches in MEDLINE, Embase, Econlit, The Health Economic Evaluations Database (HEED) and The National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED). From the 1189 unique studies retrieved, 65 studies were included for data extraction based on a priori eligibility criteria. Two authors independently reviewed these articles to determine eligibility for the final review. Data were extracted from the selected studies, focussing on six key structural or methodological themes covering different aspects of the model(s) used that may influence cost-effectiveness results. More recently published studies tend to model a larger number of HPV strains, and include a larger number of HPV-associated diseases. Studies published in Europe and North America also tend to include a larger number of diseases and are more likely to incorporate the impact of herd immunity and to use more realistic assumptions around vaccine efficacy and coverage. Studies based on previous models often do not include sufficiently robust justifications as to the applicability of the adapted model to the new context. The considerable between-study heterogeneity in economic evaluations of HPV vaccination programmes makes comparisons between studies difficult, as observed differences in cost effectiveness may be driven by differences in methodology as well as by variations in funding and delivery models and estimates of model parameters. Studies should consistently report not only all simplifying assumptions made but also the estimated impact of these assumptions on the cost-effectiveness results.

Validating and improving a zero-dimensional stack voltage model of the Vanadium Redox Flow Battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

König, S.; Suriyah, M. R.; Leibfried, T.

2018-02-01

Simple, computationally efficient battery models can contribute significantly to the development of flow batteries. However, validation studies for these models on an industrial-scale stack level are rarely published. We first extensively present a simple stack voltage model for the Vanadium Redox Flow Battery. For modeling the concentration overpotential, we derive mass transfer coefficients from experimental results presented in the 1990s. The calculated mass transfer coefficient of the positive half-cell is 63% larger than of the negative half-cell, which is not considered in models published to date. Further, we advance the concentration overpotential model by introducing an apparent electrochemically active electrode surface which differs from the geometric electrode area. We use the apparent surface as fitting parameter for adapting the model to experimental results of a flow battery manufacturer. For adapting the model, we propose a method for determining the agreement between model and reality quantitatively. To protect the manufacturer's intellectual property, we introduce a normalization method for presenting the results. For the studied stack, the apparent electrochemically active surface of the electrode is 41% larger than its geometrical area. Hence, the current density in the diffusion layer is 29% smaller than previously reported for a zero-dimensional model.

Learning a weighted sequence model of the nucleosome core and linker yields more accurate predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens.

PubMed

Reynolds, Sheila M; Bilmes, Jeff A; Noble, William Stafford

2010-07-08

DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence-301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored-with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the bulk of the remaining nucleosomes follow a statistical positioning model.

Learning a Weighted Sequence Model of the Nucleosome Core and Linker Yields More Accurate Predictions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Sheila M.; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Noble, William Stafford

2010-01-01

DNA in eukaryotes is packaged into a chromatin complex, the most basic element of which is the nucleosome. The precise positioning of the nucleosome cores allows for selective access to the DNA, and the mechanisms that control this positioning are important pieces of the gene expression puzzle. We describe a large-scale nucleosome pattern that jointly characterizes the nucleosome core and the adjacent linkers and is predominantly characterized by long-range oscillations in the mono, di- and tri-nucleotide content of the DNA sequence, and we show that this pattern can be used to predict nucleosome positions in both Homo sapiens and Saccharomyces cerevisiae more accurately than previously published methods. Surprisingly, in both H. sapiens and S. cerevisiae, the most informative individual features are the mono-nucleotide patterns, although the inclusion of di- and tri-nucleotide features results in improved performance. Our approach combines a much longer pattern than has been previously used to predict nucleosome positioning from sequence—301 base pairs, centered at the position to be scored—with a novel discriminative classification approach that selectively weights the contributions from each of the input features. The resulting scores are relatively insensitive to local AT-content and can be used to accurately discriminate putative dyad positions from adjacent linker regions without requiring an additional dynamic programming step and without the attendant edge effects and assumptions about linker length modeling and overall nucleosome density. Our approach produces the best dyad-linker classification results published to date in H. sapiens, and outperforms two recently published models on a large set of S. cerevisiae nucleosome positions. Our results suggest that in both genomes, a comparable and relatively small fraction of nucleosomes are well-positioned and that these positions are predictable based on sequence alone. We believe that the bulk of the remaining nucleosomes follow a statistical positioning model. PMID:20628623

Book review: The Wilderness Debate Rages On: Continuing the Great New Wilderness Debate

Treesearch

Peter Landres

2009-01-01

The Wilderness Debate Rages On is a collection of mostly previously published papers about the meaning, value, and role of wilderness and continues the discussion that was propelled by the editors' previous book The Great New Wilderness Debate (also a collection of papers) published in 1998. The editors state that this sequel to their previous book is mandated...

North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S.-I.; Fan, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Caesar, L.

2018-06-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios.

A Treatise on Equivalent-Plate Stiffnesses for Stiffened Laminated-Composite Plates and Plate-Like Lattices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Michael P.

2011-01-01

A survey of studies conducted since 1914 on the use of equivalent-plate stiffnesses in modeling the overall, stiffness-critical response of stiffened plates and shells is presented. Two detailed, comprehensive derivations of first-approximation equivalent-plate stiffnesses are also presented that are based on the Reissner-Mindlin-type, first-order transverse-shear deformation theory for anisotropic plates. Equivalent-plate stiffness expressions, and a corresponding symbolic manipulation computer program, are also presented for several different stiffener configurations. These expressions are very general and exhibit the full range of anisotropies permitted by the Reissner-Mindlin-type, first-order transverse-shear deformation theory for anisotropic plates. The expressions presented in the present study were also compared with available, previously published results. For the most part, the previously published results are for special cases of the general expressions presented herein and are almost in complete agreement. Analysis is also presented that extends the use of the equivalent-plate stiffness expressions to sandwich plates.

An approximation of herd effect due to vaccinating children against seasonal influenza – a potential solution to the incorporation of indirect effects into static models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Indirect herd effect from vaccination of children offers potential for improving the effectiveness of influenza prevention in the remaining unvaccinated population. Static models used in cost-effectiveness analyses cannot dynamically capture herd effects. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to allow herd effect associated with vaccinating children against seasonal influenza to be incorporated into static models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Methods Two previously published linear equations for approximation of herd effects in general were compared with the results of a structured literature review undertaken using PubMed searches to identify data on herd effects specific to influenza vaccination. A linear function was fitted to point estimates from the literature using the sum of squared residuals. Results The literature review identified 21 publications on 20 studies for inclusion. Six studies provided data on a mathematical relationship between effective vaccine coverage in subgroups and reduction of influenza infection in a larger unvaccinated population. These supported a linear relationship when effective vaccine coverage in a subgroup population was between 20% and 80%. Three studies evaluating herd effect at a community level, specifically induced by vaccinating children, provided point estimates for fitting linear equations. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the target population for vaccination (children) was slightly less conservative than a previously published equation for herd effects in general. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the non-target population was considerably less conservative than the previously published equation. Conclusions This method of approximating herd effect requires simple adjustments to the annual baseline risk of influenza in static models: (1) for the age group targeted by the childhood vaccination strategy (i.e. children); and (2) for other age groups not targeted (e.g. adults and/or elderly). Two approximations provide a linear relationship between effective coverage and reduction in the risk of infection. The first is a conservative approximation, recommended as a base-case for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The second, fitted to data extracted from a structured literature review, provides a less conservative estimate of herd effect, recommended for sensitivity analyses. PMID:23339290

Light deflection in gadolinium molybdate ferroelastic crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staniorowski, Piotr; Bornarel, Jean

2000-02-01

The deflection of a He-Ne light beam by polydomain gadolinium molybdate (GMO) crystals has been studied with respect to incidence angle icons/Journals/Common/alpha" ALT="alpha" ALIGN="TOP"/> i on the sample at room temperature. The A and B deflected beams do not cross each other during the icons/Journals/Common/alpha" ALT="alpha" ALIGN="TOP"/> i variation, in contrast to results and calculations previously published. The model using the Fresnel equation confirms this result. The model presented is more accurate for numerical calculation than that using the Huygens construction.

1-D blood flow modelling in a running human body.

PubMed

Szabó, Viktor; Halász, Gábor

2017-07-01

In this paper an attempt was made to simulate blood flow in a mobile human arterial network, specifically, in a running human subject. In order to simulate the effect of motion, a previously published immobile 1-D model was modified by including an inertial force term into the momentum equation. To calculate inertial force, gait analysis was performed at different levels of speed. Our results show that motion has a significant effect on the amplitudes of the blood pressure and flow rate but the average values are not effected significantly.

Neuronvisio: A Graphical User Interface with 3D Capabilities for NEURON.

PubMed

Mattioni, Michele; Cohen, Uri; Le Novère, Nicolas

2012-01-01

The NEURON simulation environment is a commonly used tool to perform electrical simulation of neurons and neuronal networks. The NEURON User Interface, based on the now discontinued InterViews library, provides some limited facilities to explore models and to plot their simulation results. Other limitations include the inability to generate a three-dimensional visualization, no standard mean to save the results of simulations, or to store the model geometry within the results. Neuronvisio (http://neuronvisio.org) aims to address these deficiencies through a set of well designed python APIs and provides an improved UI, allowing users to explore and interact with the model. Neuronvisio also facilitates access to previously published models, allowing users to browse, download, and locally run NEURON models stored in ModelDB. Neuronvisio uses the matplotlib library to plot simulation results and uses the HDF standard format to store simulation results. Neuronvisio can be viewed as an extension of NEURON, facilitating typical user workflows such as model browsing, selection, download, compilation, and simulation. The 3D viewer simplifies the exploration of complex model structure, while matplotlib permits the plotting of high-quality graphs. The newly introduced ability of saving numerical results allows users to perform additional analysis on their previous simulations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, Eileen T.; Breiding, Peter; Georganopoulos, Markos

The Chandra X-ray observatory has discovered several dozen anomalously X-ray-bright jets associated with powerful quasars. A popular explanation for the X-ray flux from the knots in these jets is that relativistic synchrotron-emitting electrons inverse-Compton scatter cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons to X-ray energies (the IC/CMB model). This model predicts a high gamma-ray flux that should be detectable by the Fermi /Large Area Telescope (LAT) for many sources. GeV-band upper limits from Fermi /LAT for the well-known anomalous X-ray jet in PKS 0637−752 were previously shown in Meyer et al. to violate the predictions of the IC/CMB model. Previously, measurements ofmore » the jet synchrotron spectrum, important for accurately predicting the gamma-ray flux level, were lacking between radio and infrared wavelengths. Here, we present new Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations of the large-scale jet at 100, 233, and 319 GHz, which further constrain the synchrotron spectrum, supporting the previously published empirical model. We also present updated limits from the Fermi /LAT using the new “Pass 8” calibration and approximately 30% more time on source. With these deeper limits, we rule out the IC/CMB model at the 8.7 σ level. Finally, we demonstrate that complete knowledge of the synchrotron SED is critical in evaluating the IC/CMB model.« less

New Light Curves and Analysis of the Overcontact Binaries PP Lac and DK Sge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, S. J.; Hargis, J. R.; Bradstreet, D. H.

2004-12-01

As a by-product of the ongoing work with the Catalog and AtLas of Eclipsing Binaries database (CALEB; Bradstreet et al. 2004), several hundred eclipsing binary systems have been identified that have either unpublished or poor quality light curves. We present new V & Rc light curves for the overcontact systems PP Lac and DK Sge, both chosen because their deep eclipses (peak-to-peak amplitudes of nearly 0.7 mag) help constrain the light curve modelling. Data were obtained using the 41-cm telescope at the Eastern University Observatory equipped with an SBIG ST-10XME CCD. PP Lac (P= 0.40116 d) is a W-type contact binary with only one previously published light curve (Dumont & Maraziti 1990), but the data are sparse and almost non-existent at primary eclipse. Modelling of these data gave varying results; the published mass ratios differ by nearly 0.3. Our data confirms the noted differing eclipse depths but we find the primary eclipse to be total. We present a new light curve solution using Binary Maker 3 (Bradstreet & Steelman 2002) and Wilson-Devinney, finding the mass ratio to be well-constrained by the duration of total eclipse. A period study will be presented using previously existing and newly derived times of minimum light. DK Sge (P=0.62182 d) appears to be an A-type contact binary with no published light curve. The eclipses are partial, with the primary eclipse being deeper by about 0.08 mag. The maxima show evidence of a slight asymmetry, although the light curve appears to be repeatable over the 1 month of observations. We present the first light curve solution using Binary Maker 3 and Wilson-Devinney, but have limited mass ratio constraints due to the absence of radial velocity data. A period study will be presented using previously existing and newly derived times of minimum light.

SU-D-209-02: Percent Depth Dose Curves for Fluoroscopic X-Ray Beam Qualities Incorporating Copper Filtration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wunderle, K; Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Godley, A

Purpose: The purpose of this investigation was to quantify percent depth dose (PDD) curves for fluoroscopic x-ray beam qualities incorporating added copper filtration. Methods: A PTW (Freiburg, Germany) MP3 water tank was used with a Standard Imaging (Middleton, WI) Exradin Model 11 Spokas Chamber to measure PDD curves for 60, 80, 100 and 120 kVp x-ray beams with copper filtration ranging from 0.0–0.9 mm at 22cm and 42cm fields of view from 0 to 150 mm of water. A free-in-air monitor chamber was used to normalize the water tank data to fluctuations in output from the fluoroscope. The measurements weremore » acquired on a Siemens (Erlangen, Germany) Artis ZeeGo fluoroscope. The fluoroscope was inverted from the typical orientation providing an x-ray beam originating from above the water tank. The water tank was positioned so that the water level was located at 60cm from the focal spot; which also represents the focal spot to interventional reference plane distance for that fluoroscope. Results: PDDs for 60, 80, 100, and 120 kVp with 0 mm of copper filtration compared well to previously published data by Fetterly et al. [Med Phys, 28, 205 (2001)] for those beam qualities given differences in fluoroscopes, geometric orientation, type of ionization chamber, and the water tank used for data collection. PDDs for 60, 80, 100, and 120 kVp with copper filtration were obtained and are presented, which have not been previously investigated and published. Conclusion: The equipment and processes used to acquire the reported data were sound and compared well with previously published data for PDDs without copper filtration. PDD data for the fluoroscopic x-ray beams incorporating copper filtration can be used as reference data for estimating organ or soft tissue dose at depth involving similar beam qualities or for comparison with mathematical models.« less

INEEL Subregional Conceptual Model Report Volume 3: Summary of Existing Knowledge of Natural and Anthropogenic Influences on the Release of Contaminants to the Subsurface Environment from Waste Source Terms at the INEEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul L. Wichlacz

2003-09-01

This source-term summary document is intended to describe the current understanding of contaminant source terms and the conceptual model for potential source-term release to the environment at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), as presented in published INEEL reports. The document presents a generalized conceptual model of the sources of contamination and describes the general categories of source terms, primary waste forms, and factors that affect the release of contaminants from the waste form into the vadose zone and Snake River Plain Aquifer. Where the information has previously been published and is readily available, summaries of the inventorymore » of contaminants are also included. Uncertainties that affect the estimation of the source term release are also discussed where they have been identified by the Source Term Technical Advisory Group. Areas in which additional information are needed (i.e., research needs) are also identified.« less

Linking internal and external bacterial community control gives mechanistic framework for pelagic virus-to-bacteria ratios.

PubMed

Våge, Selina; Pree, Bernadette; Thingstad, T Frede

2016-11-01

For more than 25 years, virus-to-bacteria ratios (VBR) have been measured and interpreted as indicators of the importance of viruses in aquatic ecosystems, yet a generally accepted theory for understanding mechanisms controlling VBR is still lacking. Assuming that the denominator (total bacterial abundance) is primarily predator controlled, while viral lysis compensates for host growth rates exceeding this grazing loss, the numerator (viral abundance) reflects activity differences between prokaryotic hosts. VBR is then a ratio between mechanisms generating structure within the bacterial community and interactions between different plankton functional types controlling bacterial community size. We here show how these arguments can be formalized by combining a recently published model for co-evolutionary host-virus interactions, with a previously published "minimum" model for the microbial food web. The result is a framework where viral lysis links bacterial diversity to microbial food web structure and function, creating relationships between different levels of organization that are strongly modified by organism-level properties such as cost of resistance. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Microbiology Reports published by Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A hands-on practical tutorial on performing meta-analysis with Stata.

PubMed

Chaimani, Anna; Mavridis, Dimitris; Salanti, Georgia

2014-11-01

Statistical synthesis of research findings via meta-analysis is widely used to assess the relative effectiveness of competing interventions. A series of three papers aimed at familiarising mental health scientists with the key statistical concepts and problems in meta-analysis was recently published in this journal. One paper focused on the selection and interpretation of the appropriate model to synthesise results (fixed effect or random effects model) whereas the other two papers focused on two major threats that compromise the validity of meta-analysis results, namely publication bias and missing outcome data. In this paper we provide guidance on how to undertake meta-analysis using Stata, one of the most commonly used software packages for meta-analysis. We address the three topics covered in the previous issues of the journal, focusing on their implementation in Stata using a working example from mental health research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

DO PERIODICITIES IN EXTINCTION-WITH POSSIBLE ASTRONOMICAL CONNECTIONS-SURVIVE A REVISION OF THE GEOLOGICAL TIMESCALE?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melott, Adrian L.; Bambach, Richard K.

A major revision of the geological timescale was published in 2012. We re-examine our past finding of a 27 Myr periodicity in marine extinction rates by re-assigning dates to the extinction data used previously. We find that the spectral power in this period is somewhat increased, and persists at a narrow bandwidth, which supports our previous contention that the Nemesis hypothesis is untenable as an explanation for the periodicity that was first noted by Raup and Sepkoski in the 1980s. We enumerate a number of problems in a recent study comparing extinction rates with time series models.

Do Periodicities in Extinction—with Possible Astronomical Connections—Survive a Revision of the Geological Timescale?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melott, Adrian L.; Bambach, Richard K.

2013-08-01

A major revision of the geological timescale was published in 2012. We re-examine our past finding of a 27 Myr periodicity in marine extinction rates by re-assigning dates to the extinction data used previously. We find that the spectral power in this period is somewhat increased, and persists at a narrow bandwidth, which supports our previous contention that the Nemesis hypothesis is untenable as an explanation for the periodicity that was first noted by Raup & Sepkoski in the 1980s. We enumerate a number of problems in a recent study comparing extinction rates with time series models.

δ-dependency for privacy-preserving XML data publishing.

PubMed

Landberg, Anders H; Nguyen, Kinh; Pardede, Eric; Rahayu, J Wenny

2014-08-01

An ever increasing amount of medical data such as electronic health records, is being collected, stored, shared and managed in large online health information systems and electronic medical record systems (EMR) (Williams et al., 2001; Virtanen, 2009; Huang and Liou, 2007) [1-3]. From such rich collections, data is often published in the form of census and statistical data sets for the purpose of knowledge sharing and enabling medical research. This brings with it an increasing need for protecting individual people privacy, and it becomes an issue of great importance especially when information about patients is exposed to the public. While the concept of data privacy has been comprehensively studied for relational data, models and algorithms addressing the distinct differences and complex structure of XML data are yet to be explored. Currently, the common compromise method is to convert private XML data into relational data for publication. This ad hoc approach results in significant loss of useful semantic information previously carried in the private XML data. Health data often has very complex structure, which is best expressed in XML. In fact, XML is the standard format for exchanging (e.g. HL7 version 3(1)) and publishing health information. Lack of means to deal directly with data in XML format is inevitably a serious drawback. In this paper we propose a novel privacy protection model for XML, and an algorithm for implementing this model. We provide general rules, both for transforming a private XML schema into a published XML schema, and for mapping private XML data to the new privacy-protected published XML data. In addition, we propose a new privacy property, δ-dependency, which can be applied to both relational and XML data, and that takes into consideration the hierarchical nature of sensitive data (as opposed to "quasi-identifiers"). Lastly, we provide an implementation of our model, algorithm and privacy property, and perform an experimental analysis, to demonstrate the proposed privacy scheme in practical application. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Home healthcare nurse retention and patient outcome model: discussion and model development.

PubMed

Ellenbecker, Carol Hall; Cushman, Margaret

2012-08-01

This paper discusses additions to an empirically tested model of home healthcare nurse retention. An argument is made that the variables of shared decision-making and organizational commitment be added to the model based on the authors' previous research and additional evidence from the literature. Previous research testing the home healthcare nurse retention model established empirical relationships between nurse, agency, and area characteristics to nurse job satisfaction, intent to stay, and retention. Unexplained model variance prompted a new literature search to augment understanding of nurse retention and patient and agency outcomes. Data come from the authors' previous research, and a literature search from 1990 to 2011 on the topics organizational commitment, shared decision-making, nurse retention, patient outcomes and agency performance. The literature provides a rationale for the additional variables of shared decision-making and affective and continuous organizational commitment, linking these variables to nurse job satisfaction, nurse intent to stay, nurse retention and patient outcomes and agency performance. Implications for nursing.  The new variables in the model suggest that all agencies, even those not struggling to retain nurses, should develop interventions to enhance nurse job satisfaction to assure quality patient outcomes. The new nurse retention and patient outcome model increases our understanding of nurse retention. An understanding of the relationship among these variables will guide future research and the development of interventions to create and maintain nursing work environments that contribute to nurse affective agency commitment, nurse retention and quality of patient outcomes. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Crime, Teenage Abortion, and Unwantedness

PubMed Central

Shoesmith, Gary L.

2015-01-01

This article disaggregates Donohue and Levitt’s (DL’s) national panel-data models to the state level and shows that high concentrations of teenage abortions in a handful of states drive all of DL’s results in their 2001, 2004, and 2008 articles on crime and abortion. These findings agree with previous research showing teenage motherhood is a major maternal crime factor, whereas unwanted pregnancy is an insignificant factor. Teenage abortions accounted for more than 30% of U.S. abortions in the 1970s, but only 16% to 18% since 2001, which suggests DL’s panel-data models of crime/arrests and abortion were outdated when published. The results point to a broad range of future research involving teenage behavior. A specific means is proposed to reconcile DL with previous articles finding no relationship between crime and abortion. PMID:28943645

A revised Self- and Family Management Framework.

PubMed

Grey, Margaret; Schulman-Green, Dena; Knafl, Kathleen; Reynolds, Nancy R

2015-01-01

Research on self- and family management of chronic conditions has advanced over the past 6 years, but the use of simple frameworks has hampered the understanding of the complexities involved. We sought to update our previously published model with new empirical, synthetic, and theoretical work. We used synthesis of previous studies to update the framework. We propose a revised framework that clarifies facilitators and barriers, processes, proximal outcomes, and distal outcomes of self- and family management and their relationships. We offer the revised framework as a model that can be used in studies aimed at advancing self- and family management science. The use of the framework to guide studies would allow for the design of studies that can address more clearly how self-management interventions work and under what conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structure of the SnO2(110 ) -(4 ×1 ) Surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merte, Lindsay R.; Jørgensen, Mathias S.; Pussi, Katariina; Gustafson, Johan; Shipilin, Mikhail; Schaefer, Andreas; Zhang, Chu; Rawle, Jonathan; Nicklin, Chris; Thornton, Geoff; Lindsay, Robert; Hammer, Bjørk; Lundgren, Edvin

2017-09-01

Using surface x-ray diffraction (SXRD), quantitative low-energy electron diffraction (LEED), and density-functional theory (DFT) calculations, we have determined the structure of the (4 ×1 ) reconstruction formed by sputtering and annealing of the SnO2(110 ) surface. We find that the reconstruction consists of an ordered arrangement of Sn3O3 clusters bound atop the bulk-terminated SnO2(110 ) surface. The model was found by application of a DFT-based evolutionary algorithm with surface compositions based on SXRD, and shows excellent agreement with LEED and with previously published scanning tunneling microscopy measurements. The model proposed previously consisting of in-plane oxygen vacancies is thus shown to be incorrect, and our result suggests instead that Sn(II) species in interstitial positions are the more relevant features of reduced SnO2(110 ) surfaces.

Pharmacokinetic modeling of 4,4'-methylenedianiline released from reused polyurethane dialyzer potting materials.

PubMed

Do Luu, H M; Hutter, J C

2000-01-01

4, 4'-Methylenedianiline (MDA) is a hydrolysis degradation product that can be released from polyurethanes commonly used in medical device applications. MDA is mutagenic and carcinogenic in animals. In humans, it is hepatotoxic, a known contact and respiratory allergen, and a suspected carcinogen. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed to estimate the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion of MDA in patients exposed to MDA leached from the potting materials of hemodialyzers. A worst-case reuse situation and a single use case were investigated. The PBPK model included five tissue compartments: liver, kidney, gastrointestinal tract, slowly perfused tissues, and richly perfused tissues. Physiological and chemical parameters of a healthy individual used in the model were obtained from the literature. The model was calibrated using previously published kinetic studies of IV administered doses of (14) C-MDA to rats. The model was validated using independent data published for MDA-exposed workers. The PBPK results indicated that dialysis patients who are exposed to MDA released from dialyzers (new or reused) could accumulate low levels of MDA and metabolites (total MDA) over time. Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

A PBPK Model to Predict Disposition of CYP3A-Metabolized Drugs in Pregnant Women: Verification and Discerning the Site of CYP3A Induction

PubMed Central

Ke, A B; Nallani, S C; Zhao, P; Rostami-Hodjegan, A; Unadkat, J D

2012-01-01

Besides logistical and ethical concerns, evaluation of safety and efficacy of medications in pregnant women is complicated by marked changes in pharmacokinetics (PK) of drugs. For example, CYP3A activity is induced during the third trimester (T3). We explored whether a previously published physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model could quantitatively predict PK profiles of CYP3A-metabolized drugs during T3, and discern the site of CYP3A induction (i.e., liver, intestine, or both). The model accounted for gestational age-dependent changes in maternal physiological function and hepatic CYP3A activity. For model verification, mean plasma area under the curve (AUC), peak plasma concentration (Cmax), and trough plasma concentration (Cmin) of midazolam (MDZ), nifedipine (NIF), and indinavir (IDV) were predicted and compared with published studies. The PBPK model successfully predicted MDZ, NIF, and IDV disposition during T3. A sensitivity analysis suggested that CYP3A induction in T3 is most likely hepatic and not intestinal. Our PBPK model is a useful tool to evaluate different dosing regimens during T3 for drugs cleared primarily via CYP3A metabolism. PMID:23835883

Anatomy of open access publishing: a study of longitudinal development and internal structure

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Open access (OA) is a revolutionary way of providing access to the scholarly journal literature made possible by the Internet. The primary aim of this study was to measure the volume of scientific articles published in full immediate OA journals from 2000 to 2011, while observing longitudinal internal shifts in the structure of OA publishing concerning revenue models, publisher types and relative distribution among scientific disciplines. The secondary aim was to measure the share of OA articles of all journal articles, including articles made OA by publishers with a delay and individual author-paid OA articles in subscription journals (hybrid OA), as these subsets of OA publishing have mostly been ignored in previous studies. Methods Stratified random sampling of journals in the Directory of Open Access Journals (n = 787) was performed. The annual publication volumes spanning 2000 to 2011 were retrieved from major publication indexes and through manual data collection. Results An estimated 340,000 articles were published by 6,713 full immediate OA journals during 2011. OA journals requiring article-processing charges have become increasingly common, publishing 166,700 articles in 2011 (49% of all OA articles). This growth is related to the growth of commercial publishers, who, despite only a marginal presence a decade ago, have grown to become key actors on the OA scene, responsible for 120,000 of the articles published in 2011. Publication volume has grown within all major scientific disciplines, however, biomedicine has seen a particularly rapid 16-fold growth between 2000 (7,400 articles) and 2011 (120,900 articles). Over the past decade, OA journal publishing has steadily increased its relative share of all scholarly journal articles by about 1% annually. Approximately 17% of the 1.66 million articles published during 2011 and indexed in the most comprehensive article-level index of scholarly articles (Scopus) are available OA through journal publishers, most articles immediately (12%) but some within 12 months of publication (5%). Conclusions OA journal publishing is disrupting the dominant subscription-based model of scientific publishing, having rapidly grown in relative annual share of published journal articles during the last decade. PMID:23088823

Information Management for Unmanned Systems: Combining DL-Reasoning with Publish/Subscribe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moser, Herwig; Reichelt, Toni; Oswald, Norbert; Förster, Stefan

Sharing capabilities and information between collaborating entities by using modem information- and communication-technology is a core principle in complex distributed civil or military mission scenarios. Previous work proved the suitability of Service-oriented Architectures for modelling and sharing the participating entities' capabilities. Albeit providing a satisfactory model for capabilities sharing, pure service-orientation curtails expressiveness for information exchange as opposed to dedicated data-centric communication principles. In this paper we introduce an Information Management System which combines OWL-Ontologies and automated reasoning with Publish/Subscribe-Systems, providing for a shared but decoupled data model. While confirming existing related research results, we emphasise the novel application and lack of practical experience of using Semantic Web technologies in areas other than originally intended. That is, aiding decision support and software design in the context of a mission scenario for an unmanned system. Experiments within a complex simulation environment show the immediate benefits of a semantic information-management and -dissemination platform: Clear separation of concerns in code and data model, increased service re-usability and extensibility as well as regulation of data flow and respective system behaviour through declarative rules.

The Military Applications of Cloud Computing Technologies

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-23

tactical networks will potentially cause some unique issues when implementing the JIE. Tactical networks are temporary in nature , and are utilized...connected ABCS clients will receive software updates and security patches as they are published over the network , rather than catching up after an extended...approach from the previous JNN network model, in that it introduces a limited, wireless capability to a unit’s LAN that will enable limited, on-the

The estimated impact of human papillomavirus vaccine coverage on the lifetime cervical cancer burden among girls currently aged 12 years and younger in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Saraiya, Mona; Dunne, Eileen F; Markowitz, Lauri E

2014-11-01

Using a previously published dynamic model, we illustrate the potential benefits of human papillomavirus vaccination among girls currently 12 years or younger in the United States. Increasing vaccine coverage of young girls to 80% would avert 53,300 lifetime cervical cancer cases versus 30% coverage and 28,800 cases versus 50% coverage.

Reply to “Structural and magnetic behavior of the cubic oxyfluoride SrFeO{sub 2}F studied by neutron diffraction”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clemens, Oliver, E-mail: oliver.clemens@kit.edu; Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, Institut für Nanotechnologie, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen; Berry, Frank J.

2015-03-15

In this article we comment on the results published by Thompson et al. (, J. Solid State Chem. 219 (2014) 173–178) on the crystal structure of SrFeO{sub 2}F, who claim the compound to crystallize in the cubic space group Pm-3m. We give a more detailed explanation of the determination of our previously reported structural model with Imma symmetry (Clemens et al., J. Solid State Chem. 206 (2013) 158–169), with addition of variable temperature XRD measurements with high counting time to provide unambiguous evidence for the Imma model being correct for our sample. - Graphical abstract: The crystal structure of SrFeO{submore » 2}F is discussed with regards to previous reports. - Highlights: • SrFeO{sub 2}F was synthesized by polymer based fluorination of SrFeO{sub 3}. • Evaluation of the diffraction data shows a pseudocubic cell metric. • Superstructure reflections at low d-spacings indicate deviation from cubic symmetry. • The phase transition temperature from orthorhombic to cubic was determined using variable temperature X-ray diffraction. • Results published by Thompson et al. are critically discussed with respect to those observations.« less

Constraining proposed combinations of ice history and earth rheology using VLBI determined baseline length rates in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitrovica, J. X.; Davis, J. L.; Shapiro, I. I.

1993-01-01

We predict the present-day rates of change of the lengths of 19 North American baselines due to the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Contrary to previously published research, we find that the three-dimensional motion of each of the sites defining a baseline, rather than only the radial motions of these sites, needs to be considered to obtain an accurate estimate of the rate of change of the baseline length. Predictions are generated using a suite of Earth models and late Pleistocene ice histories; these include specific combinations of the two which have been proposed in the literature as satisfying a variety of rebound related geophysical observations from the North American region. A number of these published models are shown to predict rates which differ significantly from the Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations.

Modelling and simulation of a pervaporation process using tubular module for production of anhydrous ethanol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hieu, Nguyen Huu

2017-09-01

Pervaporation is a potential process for the final step of ethanol biofuel production. In this study, a mathematical model was developed based on the resistance-in-series model and a simulation was carried out using the specialized simulation software COMSOL Multiphysics to describe a tubular type pervaporation module with membranes for the dehydration of ethanol solution. The permeance of membranes, operating conditions, and feed conditions in the simulation were referred from experimental data reported previously in literature. Accordingly, the simulated temperature and density profiles of pure water and ethanol-water mixture were validated based on existing published data.

The effects of tapering and artery wall stiffness on treatments for Coarctation of the Aorta.

PubMed

Pathirana, Dilan; Johnston, Barbara; Johnston, Peter

2017-11-01

Coarctation of the Aorta is a congenital narrowing of the aorta. Two commonly used treatments are resection and end-to-end anastomosis, and stent placements. We simulate blood flow through one-dimensional models of aortas. Different artery stiffnesses, due to treatments, are included in our model, and used to compare blood flow properties in the treated aortas. We expand our previously published model to include the natural tapering of aortas. We look at change in aorta wall radius, blood pressure and blood flow velocity, and find that, of the two treatments, the resection and end-to-end anastomosis treatment more closely matches healthy aortas.

Radar observations and shape model of asteroid 16 Psyche

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepard, Michael K.; Richardson, James; Taylor, Patrick A.; Rodriguez-Ford, Linda A.; Conrad, Al; de Pater, Imke; Adamkovics, Mate; de Kleer, Katherine; Males, Jared R.; Morzinski, Katie M.; Close, Laird M.; Kaasalainen, Mikko; Viikinkoski, Matti; Timerson, Bradley; Reddy, Vishnu; Magri, Christopher; Nolan, Michael C.; Howell, Ellen S.; Benner, Lance A. M.; Giorgini, Jon D.; Warner, Brian D.; Harris, Alan W.

2017-01-01

Using the S-band radar at Arecibo Observatory, we observed 16 Psyche, the largest M-class asteroid in the main belt. We obtained 18 radar imaging and 6 continuous wave runs in November and December 2015, and combined these with 16 continuous wave runs from 2005 and 6 recent adaptive-optics (AO) images (Drummond et al., 2016) to generate a three-dimensional shape model of Psyche. Our model is consistent with a previously published AO image (Hanus et al., 2013) and three multi-chord occultations. Our shape model has dimensions 279 × 232 × 189 km (± 10%), Deff = 226 ± 23 km, and is 6% larger than, but within the uncertainties of, the most recently published size and shape model generated from the inversion of lightcurves (Hanus et al., 2013). Psyche is roughly ellipsoidal but displays a mass-deficit over a region spanning 90° of longitude. There is also evidence for two ∼50-70 km wide depressions near its south pole. Our size and published masses lead to an overall bulk density estimate of 4500 ± 1400 kgm-3. Psyche's mean radar albedo of 0.37 ± 0.09 is consistent with a near-surface regolith composed largely of iron-nickel and ∼40% porosity. Its radar reflectivity varies by a factor of 1.6 as the asteroid rotates, suggesting global variations in metal abundance or bulk density in the near surface. The variations in radar albedo appear to correlate with large and small-scale shape features. Our size and Psyche's published absolute magnitude lead to an optical albedo of pv = 0.15 ± 0.03, and there is evidence for albedo variegations that correlate with shape features.

Asteroid 16 Psyche: Radar Observations and Shape Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepard, Michael K.; Richardson, James E.; Taylor, Patrick A.; Rodriguez-Ford, Linda A.; Conrad, Al; de Pater, Imke; Adamkovics, Mate; de Kleer, Katherine R.; Males, Jared; Morzinski, Kathleen M.; Miller Close, Laird; Kaasalainen, Mikko; Viikinkoski, Matti; Timerson, Bradley; Reddy, Vishnu; Magri, Christopher; Nolan, Michael C.; Howell, Ellen S.; Warner, Brian D.; Harris, Alan W.

2016-10-01

We observed 16 Psyche, the largest M-class asteroid in the main belt, using the S-band radar at Arecibo Observatory. We obtained 18 radar imaging and 6 continuous wave runs in November and December 2015, and combined these with 16 continuous wave runs from 2005 and 6 recent adaptive-optics (AO) images to generate a three-dimensional shape model of Psyche. Our model is consistent with a previously published AO image [Hanus et al. Icarus 226, 1045-1057, 2013] and three multi-chord occultations. Our shape model has dimensions 279 x 232 x 189 km (±10%), Deff = 226 ± 23 km, and is 6% larger than, but within the uncertainties of, the most recently published size and shape model generated from the inversion of lightcurves [Hanus et al., 2013]. Psyche is roughly ellipsoidal but displays a mass-deficit over a region spanning 90° of longitude. There is also evidence for two ~50-70 km wide depressions near its south pole. Our size and published masses lead to an overall bulk density estimate of 4500 ± 1400 kg m-3. Psyche's mean radar albedo of 0.37 ± 0.09 is consistent with a near-surface regolith composed largely of iron-nickel and ~40% porosity. Its radar reflectivity varies by a factor of 1.6 as the asteroid rotates, suggesting global variations in metal abundance or bulk density in the near surface. The variations in radar albedo appear to correlate with large and small-scale shape features. Our size and Psyche's published absolute magnitude lead to an optical albedo of pv = 0.15 ± 0.03, and there is evidence for albedo variegations that correlate with shape features.

Age- and bite-structured models for vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Rock, K S; Wood, D A; Keeling, M J

2015-09-01

The biology and behaviour of biting insects is a vitally important aspect in the spread of vector-borne diseases. This paper aims to determine, through the use of mathematical models, what effect incorporating vector senescence and realistic feeding patterns has on disease. A novel model is developed to enable the effects of age- and bite-structure to be examined in detail. This original PDE framework extends previous age-structured models into a further dimension to give a new insight into the role of vector biting and its interaction with vector mortality and spread of disease. Through the PDE model, the roles of the vector death and bite rates are examined in a way which is impossible under the traditional ODE formulation. It is demonstrated that incorporating more realistic functions for vector biting and mortality in a model may give rise to different dynamics than those seen under a more simple ODE formulation. The numerical results indicate that the efficacy of control methods that increase vector mortality may not be as great as predicted under a standard host-vector model, whereas other controls including treatment of humans may be more effective than previously thought. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of doping on the density of states and the mobility in organic semiconductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Guangzheng; Abdalla, Hassan; Kemerink, Martijn

2016-06-01

We experimentally investigated conductivity and mobility of poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) doped with tetrafluorotetracyanoquinodimethane (F4TCNQ ) for various relative doping concentrations ranging from ultralow (10-5) to high (10-1) and various active layer thicknesses. Although the measured conductivity monotonously increases with increasing doping concentration, the mobilities decrease, in agreement with previously published work. Additionally, we developed a simple yet quantitative model to rationalize the results on basis of a modification of the density of states (DOS) by the Coulomb potentials of ionized dopants. The DOS was integrated in a three-dimensional (3D) hopping formalism in which parameters such as energetic disorder, intersite distance, energy level difference, and temperature were varied. We compared predictions of our model as well as those of a previously developed model to kinetic Monte Carlo (MC) modeling and found that only the former model accurately reproduces the mobility of MC modeling in a large part of the parameter space. Importantly, both our model and MC simulations are in good agreement with experiments; the crucial ingredient to both is the formation of a deep trap tail in the Gaussian DOS with increasing doping concentration.

A clinical prognostic model compared to the newly adopted UICC staging in an independent validation cohort of P16 negative/positive head and neck cancer patients.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Jacob H; Håkansson, Katrin; Rasmussen, Gregers B; Vogelius, Ivan R; Friborg, Jeppe; Fischer, Barbara M; Bentzen, Søren M; Specht, Lena

2018-06-01

A previously published prognostic model in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) was validated in both a p16-negative and a p16-positive independent patient cohort and the performance was compared with the newly adopted 8th edition of the UICC staging system. Consecutive patients with HNSCC treated at a single institution from 2005 to 2012 were included. The cohort was divided in three. 1.) Training cohort, patients treated from 2005 to 2009 excluding patients with p16-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCC); 2.) A p16-negative validation cohort and 3.) A p16-positive validation cohort. A previously published prognostic model (clinical model) with the significant covariates (smoking status, FDG uptake, and tumor volume) was refitted in the training cohort and validated in the two validation cohorts. The clinical model was used to generate four risk groups based on the predicted risk of disease recurrence after 2 years and the performance was compared with UICC staging 8th edition using concordance index. Overall 568 patients were included. Compared to UICC the clinical model had a significantly better concordance index in the p16-negative validation cohort (AUC = 0.63 for UICC and AUC = 0.73 for the clinical model; p = 0.003) and a borderline significantly better concordance index in the p16-positive cohort (AUC = 0.63 for UICC and 0.72 for the clinical model; p = 0.088). The validated clinical model provided a better prognostication of risk of disease recurrence than UICC stage in the p16-negative validation cohort, and similar prognostication as the newly adopted 8th edition of the UICC staging in the p16-positive patient cohort. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the growth of Salmonella in raw poultry stored under aerobic conditions.

PubMed

Dominguez, Silvia A; Schaffner, Donald W

2008-12-01

The presence of Salmonella in raw poultry is a well-recognized risk factor for foodborne illness. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a mathematical model that predicts the growth of Salmonella in raw poultry stored under aerobic conditions at a variety of temperatures. One hundred twelve Salmonella growth rates were extracted from 12 previously published studies. These growth rates were used to develop a square-root model relating the growth rate of Salmonella to storage temperature. Model predictions were compared to growth rate measurements collected in our laboratory for four poultry-specific Salmonella strains (two antibiotic-resistant and two nonresistant strains) inoculated onto raw chicken tenderloins. Chicken was inoculated at two levels (10(3) CFU/cm2 and < or = 10 CFU/cm2) and incubated at temperatures ranging from 10 to 37 degrees C. Visual inspection of the data, bias and accuracy factors, and comparison with two other published models were used to analyze the performance of the new model. Neither antibiotic resistance nor inoculum size affected Salmonella growth rates. The presence of spoilage microflora did not appear to slow the growth of Salmonella. Our model provided intermediate predicted growth rates when compared with the two other published models. Our model predicted slightly faster growth rates than those observed in inoculated chicken in the temperature range of 10 to 28 degrees C but slightly slower growth rates than those observed between 30 and 37 degrees C. Slightly negative bias factors were obtained in every case (-5 to -3%); however, application of the model may be considered fail-safe for storage temperatures below 28 degrees C.

Testing the dose-response specification in epidemiology: public health and policy consequences for lead.

PubMed

Rothenberg, Stephen J; Rothenberg, Jesse C

2005-09-01

Statistical evaluation of the dose-response function in lead epidemiology is rarely attempted. Economic evaluation of health benefits of lead reduction usually assumes a linear dose-response function, regardless of the outcome measure used. We reanalyzed a previously published study, an international pooled data set combining data from seven prospective lead studies examining contemporaneous blood lead effect on IQ (intelligence quotient) of 7-year-old children (n = 1,333). We constructed alternative linear multiple regression models with linear blood lead terms (linear-linear dose response) and natural-log-transformed blood lead terms (log-linear dose response). We tested the two lead specifications for nonlinearity in the models, compared the two lead specifications for significantly better fit to the data, and examined the effects of possible residual confounding on the functional form of the dose-response relationship. We found that a log-linear lead-IQ relationship was a significantly better fit than was a linear-linear relationship for IQ (p = 0.009), with little evidence of residual confounding of included model variables. We substituted the log-linear lead-IQ effect in a previously published health benefits model and found that the economic savings due to U.S. population lead decrease between 1976 and 1999 (from 17.1 microg/dL to 2.0 microg/dL) was 2.2 times (319 billion dollars) that calculated using a linear-linear dose-response function (149 billion dollars). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention action limit of 10 microg/dL for children fails to protect against most damage and economic cost attributable to lead exposure.

Pathophysiological mechanisms of neuropathic pain: comparison of sensory phenotypes in patients and human surrogate pain models.

PubMed

Vollert, Jan; Magerl, Walter; Baron, Ralf; Binder, Andreas; Enax-Krumova, Elena K; Geisslinger, Gerd; Gierthmühlen, Janne; Henrich, Florian; Hüllemann, Philipp; Klein, Thomas; Lötsch, Jörn; Maier, Christoph; Oertel, Bruno; Schuh-Hofer, Sigrid; Tölle, Thomas R; Treede, Rolf-Detlef

2018-06-01

As an indirect approach to relate previously identified sensory phenotypes of patients suffering from peripheral neuropathic pain to underlying mechanisms, we used a published sorting algorithm to estimate the prevalence of denervation, peripheral and central sensitization in 657 healthy subjects undergoing experimental models of nerve block (NB) (compression block and topical lidocaine), primary hyperalgesia (PH) (sunburn and topical capsaicin), or secondary hyperalgesia (intradermal capsaicin and electrical high-frequency stimulation), and in 902 patients suffering from neuropathic pain. Some of the data have been previously published. Randomized split-half analysis verified a good concordance with a priori mechanistic sensory profile assignment in the training (79%, Cohen κ = 0.54, n = 265) and the test set (81%, Cohen κ = 0.56, n = 279). Nerve blocks were characterized by pronounced thermal and mechanical sensory loss, but also mild pinprick hyperalgesia and paradoxical heat sensations. Primary hyperalgesia was characterized by pronounced gain for heat, pressure and pinprick pain, and mild thermal sensory loss. Secondary hyperalgesia was characterized by pronounced pinprick hyperalgesia and mild thermal sensory loss. Topical lidocaine plus topical capsaicin induced a combined phenotype of NB plus PH. Topical menthol was the only model with significant cold hyperalgesia. Sorting of the 902 patients into these mechanistic phenotypes led to a similar distribution as the original heuristic clustering (65% identity, Cohen κ = 0.44), but the denervation phenotype was more frequent than in heuristic clustering. These data suggest that sorting according to human surrogate models may be useful for mechanism-based stratification of neuropathic pain patients for future clinical trials, as encouraged by the European Medicines Agency.

Improvements, testing and development of the ADM-τ sub-grid surface tension model for two-phase LES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniszewski, Wojciech

2016-12-01

In this paper, a specific subgrid term occurring in Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of two-phase flows is investigated. This and other subgrid terms are presented, we subsequently elaborate on the existing models for those and re-formulate the ADM-τ model for sub-grid surface tension previously published by these authors. This paper presents a substantial, conceptual simplification over the original model version, accompanied by a decrease in its computational cost. At the same time, it addresses the issues the original model version faced, e.g. introduces non-isotropic applicability criteria based on resolved interface's principal curvature radii. Additionally, this paper introduces more throughout testing of the ADM-τ, in both simple and complex flows.

15 CFR 10.10 - Review of published standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review of published standards. 10.10... DEVELOPMENT OF VOLUNTARY PRODUCT STANDARDS § 10.10 Review of published standards. (a) Each standard published... considered until a replacement standard is published. (b) Each standard published under these or previous...

Relative contributions of microbial and infrastructure heat at a crude oil-contaminated site.

PubMed

Warren, Ean; Bekins, Barbara A

2018-04-01

Biodegradation of contaminants can increase the temperature in the subsurface due to heat generated from exothermic reactions, making temperature observations a potentially low-cost approach for determining microbial activity. For this technique to gain more widespread acceptance, it is necessary to better understand all the factors affecting the measured temperatures. Biodegradation has been occurring at a crude oil-contaminated site near Bemidji, Minnesota for 39 years, creating a quasi-steady-state plume of contaminants and degradation products. A model of subsurface heat generation and transport helps elucidate the contribution of microbial and infrastructure heating to observed temperature increases at this site. We created a steady-state, two-dimensional, heat transport model using previous-published parameter values for physical, chemical and biodegradation properties. Simulated temperature distributions closely match the observed average annual temperatures measured in the contaminated area at the site within less than 0.2 °C in the unsaturated zone and 0.4 °C in the saturated zone. The model results confirm that the observed subsurface heat from microbial activity is due primarily to methane oxidation in the unsaturated zone resulting in a 3.6 °C increase in average annual temperature. Another important source of subsurface heat is from the active, crude-oil pipelines crossing the site. The pipelines impact temperatures for a distance of 200 m and contribute half the heat. Model results show that not accounting for the heat from the pipelines leads to overestimating the degradation rates by a factor of 1.7, demonstrating the importance of identifying and quantifying all heat sources. The model results also highlighted a zone where previously unknown microbial activity is occurring at the site. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The 9-11 Commission's invitation to imagine: a pathophysiology-based approach to critical care of nuclear explosion victims.

PubMed

Manthous, Constantine A; Jackson, William L

2007-03-01

The successful management of mass casualties arising from detonation of a nuclear device (NDD) would require significant preparation at all levels of the healthcare system. This article briefly outlines previously published models of destruction and casualties, details approaches to on-site triage and medical evacuation, and offers pathophysiology-based suggestions for treatment of the critically injured. Documentation from previous bomb blasts and nuclear accidents is reviewed to assist in forecasting needs of both systems and patients in the event of an NDD in a major metropolitan area. This review extracts data from previously published models of destruction and casualties projected from an NDD, the primary literature detailing observations of patients' pathophysiology following NDDs in Japan and relevant nuclear accidents, and available contemporary resources for first responders and healthcare providers. The blast and radiation exposures that accompany an NDD will significantly affect local and regional public resources. Morbidity and mortality likely to arise in the setting of dose-dependent organ dysfunction may be minimized by rigorous a priori planning/training for field triage decisions, coordination of medical and civil responses to effect rapid responses and medical evacuation routes, radiation-specific interventions, and modern intensive care. Although the responses of emergency and healthcare systems following NDD will vary depending on the exact mechanism, magnitude, and location of the event, dose exposures and individual pathophysiology evolution are reasonably predictable. Triage decisions, resource requirements, and bedside therapeutic plans can be evidence-based and can be developed rapidly with appropriate preparation and planning.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: A dust model for bet Pic from 0.58 to 870um (Ballering+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballering, N. P.; Su, K. Y. L.; Rieke, G. H.; Gaspar, A.

2016-08-01

β Pic was imaged with the HST/STIS CCD in coronagraphic (50CORON) mode under program GO-12551 (PI: Apai), and the results of these observations were published in Apai et al. (2015ApJ...800..136A). The instrument bandpass is set by the response of the CCD and centered at 0.58um. We searched the HST archive and found previously unpublished observations of β Pic with the WFC3 instrument in the IR channel (filter F110W at ~1.16um) from program GO-11150 (PI: Graham). The Spitzer/MIPS observations of β Pic were taken under the Spitzer Guaranteed Time Observing Program 90 (PI: M. Werner). The data at all three bands (24, 70, and 160um) are published here for the first time. Two sets of 24um observations were obtained. The first set was obtained on 2004 March 20, the second set of data was obtained on 2004 April 11. Two sets of 70um observations were obtained. The first set was obtained on 2004 April 12. The second set was obtained on 2005 April 4. Herschel/PACS 70um scan map observations of β Pic (PI G. Olofsson, observation IDs 1342186612 and 1342186613) were published by Vandenbussche et al. (2010A&A...518L.133V). We used the ALMA 870um continuum image previously published by Dent et al. (2014Sci...343.1490D). (1 data file).

Academic Productivity, Knowledge, and Education in Plastic Surgery: The Benefit of the Clinical Research Fellow.

PubMed

Carney, Martin J; Weissler, Jason M; Koltz, Peter F; Fischer, John P; Wu, Liza C; Serletti, Joseph M

2017-10-01

Academic research productivity is limited by strenuous resident and faculty schedules but nevertheless is imperative to the growth and success of our discipline. The authors report institutional experience with their clinical research fellowship model, providing two positions per year. A critical analysis of research productivity was performed for all trainees, faculty, and research fellows from 2000 to 2015. Academic productivity was determined by the number of peer-reviewed publications, podium presentations, and h-index. Academic fate of previous research fellows was also noted. During the 16-year timeframe, 484 articles were published in print. Notably, 92 articles were published from 2000 to 2007 and 392 articles were published from 2008 to 2015 (p = 0.0066), demonstrating linear growth after instituting the research fellowship. In addition, 33 articles were published from 2002 to 2004 before leadership change, 47 from 2005 to 2007 after leadership change but before fellowship, and 58 from 2008 to 2010 in the first few years of the fellowship (p = 0.0204). Overall, 39.9 percent of publications appeared in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, with a total of 77 different peer-reviewed journal inclusions. American Association of Plastic Surgeons, American Society of Plastic Surgeons, and Northeastern Society of Plastic Surgeons podium presentations totaled 143 between 2005 and 2015. Of the eight previous fellows who applied into integrated and independent programs, 100 percent have matched. Incorporation of a formalized research fellowship into a plastic surgery program can drastically increase clinical research contribution in a reproducible fashion.

Attention in western Nevada: Preliminary results from earthquake and explosion sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hough, S.E.; Anderson, J.G.; Patton, H.J.

1989-02-01

We present preliminary results from a study of the attenuation of regional seismic waves at frequencies between 1 and 15 Hz and distances up to 250 km in Western Nevada. Following the methods of Anderson and Hough (1984) and Hough et al. (1988), we parameterize the asymptote of the high frequency acceleration spectrum by the two-parameter model. We relate the model parameters to a two-layer model for Q/sub i/ and Q/sub d/, the freuqency-independent and the frequency dependent components of the quality factor. We compare our results to previously published Q studies in the Basin and Range and find thatmore » our estimate of total Q, Q/sub t/, in the shallow crust is consistent with shear wave Q at close distances with previous estimates of coda Q (Singh and Hermann, 1983) and LgQ (Chavez and Priestley, 1986), suggesting that both coda Q and LgQ are insensitive to near-surface contributions to attenuation.« less

Stability of equidimensional pseudo-single-domain magnetite over billion-year timescales.

PubMed

Nagy, Lesleis; Williams, Wyn; Muxworthy, Adrian R; Fabian, Karl; Almeida, Trevor P; Conbhuí, Pádraig Ó; Shcherbakov, Valera P

2017-09-26

Interpretations of paleomagnetic observations assume that naturally occurring magnetic particles can retain their primary magnetic recording over billions of years. The ability to retain a magnetic recording is inferred from laboratory measurements, where heating causes demagnetization on the order of seconds. The theoretical basis for this inference comes from previous models that assume only the existence of small, uniformly magnetized particles, whereas the carriers of paleomagnetic signals in rocks are usually larger, nonuniformly magnetized particles, for which there is no empirically complete, thermally activated model. This study has developed a thermally activated numerical micromagnetic model that can quantitatively determine the energy barriers between stable states in nonuniform magnetic particles on geological timescales. We examine in detail the thermal stability characteristics of equidimensional cuboctahedral magnetite and find that, contrary to previously published theories, such nonuniformly magnetized particles provide greater magnetic stability than their uniformly magnetized counterparts. Hence, nonuniformly magnetized grains, which are commonly the main remanence carrier in meteorites and rocks, can record and retain high-fidelity magnetic recordings over billions of years.

A composite computational model of liver glucose homeostasis. I. Building the composite model.

PubMed

Hetherington, J; Sumner, T; Seymour, R M; Li, L; Rey, M Varela; Yamaji, S; Saffrey, P; Margoninski, O; Bogle, I D L; Finkelstein, A; Warner, A

2012-04-07

A computational model of the glucagon/insulin-driven liver glucohomeostasis function, focusing on the buffering of glucose into glycogen, has been developed. The model exemplifies an 'engineering' approach to modelling in systems biology, and was produced by linking together seven component models of separate aspects of the physiology. The component models use a variety of modelling paradigms and degrees of simplification. Model parameters were determined by an iterative hybrid of fitting to high-scale physiological data, and determination from small-scale in vitro experiments or molecular biological techniques. The component models were not originally designed for inclusion within such a composite model, but were integrated, with modification, using our published modelling software and computational frameworks. This approach facilitates the development of large and complex composite models, although, inevitably, some compromises must be made when composing the individual models. Composite models of this form have not previously been demonstrated.

Predicting Reactive Intermediate Quantum Yields from Dissolved Organic Matter Photolysis Using Optical Properties and Antioxidant Capacity.

PubMed

Mckay, Garrett; Huang, Wenxi; Romera-Castillo, Cristina; Crouch, Jenna E; Rosario-Ortiz, Fernando L; Jaffé, Rudolf

2017-05-16

The antioxidant capacity and formation of photochemically produced reactive intermediates (RI) was studied for water samples collected from the Florida Everglades with different spatial (marsh versus estuarine) and temporal (wet versus dry season) characteristics. Measured RI included triplet excited states of dissolved organic matter ( 3 DOM*), singlet oxygen ( 1 O 2 ), and the hydroxyl radical ( • OH). Single and multiple linear regression modeling were performed using a broad range of extrinsic (to predict RI formation rates, R RI ) and intrinsic (to predict RI quantum yields, Φ RI ) parameters. Multiple linear regression models consistently led to better predictions of R RI and Φ RI for our data set but poor prediction of Φ RI for a previously published data set,1 probably because the predictors are intercorrelated (Pearson's r > 0.5). Single linear regression models were built with data compiled from previously published studies (n ≈ 120) in which E2:E3, S, and Φ RI values were measured, which revealed a high degree of similarity between RI-optical property relationships across DOM samples of diverse sources. This study reveals that • OH formation is, in general, decoupled from 3 DOM* and 1 O 2 formation, providing supporting evidence that 3 DOM* is not a • OH precursor. Finally, Φ RI for 1 O 2 and 3 DOM* correlated negatively with antioxidant activity (a surrogate for electron donating capacity) for the collected samples, which is consistent with intramolecular oxidation of DOM moieties by 3 DOM*.

Implementation of the MEGAN (v2.1) biogenic emission model in the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Stanelle, Tanja; Schröder, Sabine; Siegenthaler, Colombe; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Schultz, Martin G.

2017-02-01

A biogenic emission scheme based on the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.1 (Guenther et al., 2012) has been integrated into the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model in order to calculate the emissions from terrestrial vegetation of 32 compounds. The estimated annual global total for the reference simulation is 634 Tg C yr-1 (simulation period 2000-2012). Isoprene is the main contributor to the average emission total, accounting for 66 % (417 Tg C yr-1), followed by several monoterpenes (12 %), methanol (7 %), acetone (3.6 %), and ethene (3.6 %). Regionally, most of the high annual emissions are found to be associated with tropical regions and tropical vegetation types. In order to evaluate the implementation of the biogenic model in ECHAM-HAMMOZ, global and regional biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions of the reference simulation were compared to previous published experiment results with MEGAN. Several sensitivity simulations were performed to study the impact of different model input and parameters related to the vegetation cover and the ECHAM6 climate. BVOC emissions obtained here are within the range of previous published estimates. The large range of emission estimates can be attributed to the use of different input data and empirical coefficients within different setups of MEGAN. The biogenic model shows a high sensitivity to the changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions and associated emission factors for most of the compounds. The global emission impact for isoprene is about -9 %, but reaches +75 % for α-pinene when switching from global emission factor maps to PFT-specific emission factor distributions. The highest sensitivity of isoprene emissions is calculated when considering soil moisture impact, with a global decrease of 12.5 % when the soil moisture activity factor is included in the model parameterization. Nudging ECHAM6 climate towards ERA-Interim reanalysis has an impact on the biogenic emissions, slightly lowering the global total emissions and their interannual variability.

Defibrillator/monitor/pacemakers.

PubMed

2002-02-01

Defibrillator/monitors allow operators to assess and monitor a patient's ECG and, when necessary, deliver a defibrillating shock to the heart. When integral noninvasive pacing capability is added, the resulting device is referred to as a defibrillator/monitor/pacemaker. In this Update Evaluation, we present our findings for one newly evaluated model, the Philips Heartstream XL, and we summarize our findings for the seven previously evaluated models that are still on the market. (Our previous Evaluations were published in the May-June 1993, February 1998, and September 2000 issues of Health Devices.) Defibrillator/monitor/pacemakers are used for a variety of applications within the hospital, as well as by emergency medical services (EMS) personnel and others in the prehospital environment. To help both hospital-based and prehospital users select an appropriate model, we rate the models (1) for each of three in-hospital applications--general crash-cart use, in-hospital transport use, and in-hospital use by basic as well as advanced users--and (2) for prehospital (EMS) use. For in-hospital use, we recommend four of the evaluated models. These received either Preferred or Acceptable ratings for all the applications considered. For prehospital use, we found that five of the models will meet most organizations' needs.

Dynamic self-organisation of haematopoiesis and (a)symmetric cell division.

PubMed

Måløy, Marthe; Måløy, Frode; Jakobsen, Per; Olav Brandsdal, Bjørn

2017-02-07

A model of haematopoiesis that links self-organisation with symmetric and asymmetric cell division is presented in this paper. It is assumed that all cell divisions are completely random events, and that the daughter cells resulting from symmetric and asymmetric stem cell divisions are, in general, phenotypically identical, and still, the haematopoietic system has the flexibility to self-renew, produce mature cells by differentiation, and regenerate undifferentiated and differentiated cells when necessary, due to self-organisation. As far as we know, no previous model implements symmetric and asymmetric division as the result of self-organisation. The model presented in this paper is inspired by experiments on the Drosophila germline stem cell, which imply that under normal conditions, the stem cells typically divide asymmetrically, whereas during regeneration, the rate of symmetric division increases. Moreover, the model can reproduce several of the results from experiments on female Safari cats. In particular, the model can explain why significant fluctuation in the phenotypes of haematopoietic cells was observed in some cats, when the haematopoietic system had reached normal population level after regeneration. To our knowledge, no previous model of haematopoiesis in Safari cats has captured this phenomenon. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Dermal uptake of phthalates from clothing: Comparison of model to human participant results.

PubMed

Morrison, G C; Weschler, C J; Bekö, G

2017-05-01

In this research, we extend a model of transdermal uptake of phthalates to include a layer of clothing. When compared with experimental results, this model better estimates dermal uptake of diethylphthalate and di-n-butylphthalate (DnBP) than a previous model. The model predictions are consistent with the observation that previously exposed clothing can increase dermal uptake over that observed in bare-skin participants for the same exposure air concentrations. The model predicts that dermal uptake from clothing of DnBP is a substantial fraction of total uptake from all sources of exposure. For compounds that have high dermal permeability coefficients, dermal uptake is increased for (i) thinner clothing, (ii) a narrower gap between clothing and skin, and (iii) longer time intervals between laundering and wearing. Enhanced dermal uptake is most pronounced for compounds with clothing-air partition coefficients between 10 4 and 10 7 . In the absence of direct measurements of cotton cloth-air partition coefficients, dermal exposure may be predicted using equilibrium data for compounds in equilibrium with cellulose and water, in combination with computational methods of predicting partition coefficients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of a Model for Simulating the Vacuum Arc Remelting Process in Titanium Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Ashish; Tripp, David W.; Fiore, Daniel

Mathematical modeling is routinely used in the process development and production of advanced aerospace alloys to gain greater insight into system dynamics and to predict the effect of process modifications or upsets on final properties. This article describes the application of a 2-D mathematical VAR model presented in previous LMPC meetings. The impact of process parameters on melt pool geometry, solidification behavior, fluid-flow and chemistry in Ti-6Al-4V ingots will be discussed. Model predictions were first validated against the measured characteristics of industrially produced ingots, and process inputs and model formulation were adjusted to match macro-etched pool shapes. The results are compared to published data in the literature. Finally, the model is used to examine ingot chemistry during successive VAR melts.

An analytical model of leakage neutron equivalent dose for passively-scattered proton radiotherapy and validation with measurements.

PubMed

Schneider, Christopher; Newhauser, Wayne; Farah, Jad

2015-05-18

Exposure to stray neutrons increases the risk of second cancer development after proton therapy. Previously reported analytical models of this exposure were difficult to configure and had not been investigated below 100 MeV proton energy. The purposes of this study were to test an analytical model of neutron equivalent dose per therapeutic absorbed dose  at 75 MeV and to improve the model by reducing the number of configuration parameters and making it continuous in proton energy from 100 to 250 MeV. To develop the analytical model, we used previously published H/D values in water from Monte Carlo simulations of a general-purpose beamline for proton energies from 100 to 250 MeV. We also configured and tested the model on in-air neutron equivalent doses measured for a 75 MeV ocular beamline. Predicted H/D values from the analytical model and Monte Carlo agreed well from 100 to 250 MeV (10% average difference). Predicted H/D values from the analytical model also agreed well with measurements at 75 MeV (15% average difference). The results indicate that analytical models can give fast, reliable calculations of neutron exposure after proton therapy. This ability is absent in treatment planning systems but vital to second cancer risk estimation.

Computer-aided design of liposomal drugs: In silico prediction and experimental validation of drug candidates for liposomal remote loading.

PubMed

Cern, Ahuva; Barenholz, Yechezkel; Tropsha, Alexander; Goldblum, Amiram

2014-01-10

Previously we have developed and statistically validated Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) models that correlate drugs' structural, physical and chemical properties as well as experimental conditions with the relative efficiency of remote loading of drugs into liposomes (Cern et al., J. Control. Release 160 (2012) 147-157). Herein, these models have been used to virtually screen a large drug database to identify novel candidate molecules for liposomal drug delivery. Computational hits were considered for experimental validation based on their predicted remote loading efficiency as well as additional considerations such as availability, recommended dose and relevance to the disease. Three compounds were selected for experimental testing which were confirmed to be correctly classified by our previously reported QSPR models developed with Iterative Stochastic Elimination (ISE) and k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) approaches. In addition, 10 new molecules with known liposome remote loading efficiency that were not used by us in QSPR model development were identified in the published literature and employed as an additional model validation set. The external accuracy of the models was found to be as high as 82% or 92%, depending on the model. This study presents the first successful application of QSPR models for the computer-model-driven design of liposomal drugs. © 2013.

Computer-aided design of liposomal drugs: in silico prediction and experimental validation of drug candidates for liposomal remote loading

PubMed Central

Cern, Ahuva; Barenholz, Yechezkel; Tropsha, Alexander; Goldblum, Amiram

2014-01-01

Previously we have developed and statistically validated Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) models that correlate drugs’ structural, physical and chemical properties as well as experimental conditions with the relative efficiency of remote loading of drugs into liposomes (Cern et al, Journal of Controlled Release, 160(2012) 14–157). Herein, these models have been used to virtually screen a large drug database to identify novel candidate molecules for liposomal drug delivery. Computational hits were considered for experimental validation based on their predicted remote loading efficiency as well as additional considerations such as availability, recommended dose and relevance to the disease. Three compounds were selected for experimental testing which were confirmed to be correctly classified by our previously reported QSPR models developed with Iterative Stochastic Elimination (ISE) and k-nearest neighbors (kNN) approaches. In addition, 10 new molecules with known liposome remote loading efficiency that were not used in QSPR model development were identified in the published literature and employed as an additional model validation set. The external accuracy of the models was found to be as high as 82% or 92%, depending on the model. This study presents the first successful application of QSPR models for the computer-model-driven design of liposomal drugs. PMID:24184343

An ecological risk assessment of the acute and chronic effects of the herbicide clopyralid to rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fairchild, J.F.; Allert, A.L.; Feltz, K.P.; Nelson, K.J.; Valle, J.A.

2009-01-01

Clopyralid (3,6-dichloro-2-pyridinecarboxylic acid) is a pyridine herbicide frequently used to control invasive, noxious weeds in the northwestern United States. Clopyralid exhibits low acute toxicity to fish, including the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and the threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). However, there are no published chronic toxicity data for clopyralid and fish that can be used in ecological risk assessments. We conducted 30-day chronic toxicity studies with juvenile rainbow trout exposed to the acid form of clopyralid. The 30-day maximum acceptable toxicant concentration (MATC) for growth, calculated as the geometric mean of the no observable effect concentration (68 mg/L) and the lowest observable effect concentration (136 mg/L), was 96 mg/L. No mortality was measured at the highest chronic concentration tested (273 mg/L). The acute:chronic ratio, calculated by dividing the previously published 96-h acutely lethal concentration (96-h ALC50; 700 mg/L) by the MATC was 7.3. Toxicity values were compared to a four-tiered exposure assessment profile assuming an application rate of 1.12 kg/ha. The Tier 1 exposure estimation, based on direct overspray of a 2-m deep pond, was 0.055 mg/L. The Tier 2 maximum exposure estimate, based on the Generic Exposure Estimate Concentration model (GEENEC), was 0.057 mg/L. The Tier 3 maximum exposure estimate, based on previously published results of the Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems model (GLEAMS), was 0.073 mg/L. The Tier 4 exposure estimate, based on published edge-of-field monitoring data, was estimated at 0.008 mg/L. Comparison of toxicity data to estimated environmental concentrations of clopyralid indicates that the safety factor for rainbow trout exposed to clopyralid at labeled use rates exceeds 1000. Therefore, the herbicide presents little to no risk to rainbow trout or other salmonids such as the threatened bull trout. ?? 2009 US Government.

Fast and slowly evolving vector solitons in mode-locked fibre lasers.

PubMed

Sergeyev, Sergey V

2014-10-28

We report on a new vector model of an erbium-doped fibre laser mode locked with carbon nanotubes. This model goes beyond the limitations of the previously used models based on either coupled nonlinear Schrödinger or Ginzburg-Landau equations. Unlike the previous models, it accounts for the vector nature of the interaction between an optical field and an erbium-doped active medium, slow relaxation dynamics of erbium ions, linear birefringence in a fibre, linear and circular birefringence of a laser cavity caused by in-cavity polarization controller and light-induced anisotropy caused by elliptically polarized pump field. Interplay of aforementioned factors changes coherent coupling of two polarization modes at a long time scale and so results in a new family of vector solitons (VSs) with fast and slowly evolving states of polarization. The observed VSs can be of interest in secure communications, trapping and manipulation of atoms and nanoparticles, control of magnetization in data storage devices and many other areas. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Targeting GPR30 in Abiraterone and MDV3100 Resistant Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

environment in vivo. We had previously demonstrated that G-1 inhibited growth in cell culture experiments and a hormone -independent PC-3Published by...coupled receptor 30 (GPR30) is a seven-transmembrane estrogen receptor and activation by its specific agonist G-1 inhibited growth in multiple...significantly inhibited the growth and extended the progression-free survival of patient-derived xenograft models that are sensitive (LuCaP 136CR, P

Framework for Smart Electronic Health Record- Linked Predictive Models to Optimize Care for Complex Digestive Diseases

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

data against previous published outcomes in AP and Chronic Pancreatitis (CP). This served as useful validation of our data set before entering the...These patients can develop multiple complications from their disease. In addition, the treatments for CD (both medical and surgical ) can impose...years of diagnosis. The treatment for CD can sometimes involve very expensive medications with potentially serious side effects, as well as surgical

Integration of Marine Mammal Movement and Behavior into the Effects of Sound on the Marine Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

capability to emulate the dive and movement behavior of marine mammals provides a significant advantage to modeling environmental impact than do historic...approaches used in Navy environmental assessments (EA) and impact statements (EIS). Many previous methods have been statistical or pseudo-statistical...Siderius. 2011. Comparison of methods used for computing the impact of sound on the marine environment, Marine Environmental Research, 71:342-350. [published

A strategy to establish Food Safety Model Repositories.

PubMed

Plaza-Rodríguez, C; Thoens, C; Falenski, A; Weiser, A A; Appel, B; Kaesbohrer, A; Filter, M

2015-07-02

Transferring the knowledge of predictive microbiology into real world food manufacturing applications is still a major challenge for the whole food safety modelling community. To facilitate this process, a strategy for creating open, community driven and web-based predictive microbial model repositories is proposed. These collaborative model resources could significantly improve the transfer of knowledge from research into commercial and governmental applications and also increase efficiency, transparency and usability of predictive models. To demonstrate the feasibility, predictive models of Salmonella in beef previously published in the scientific literature were re-implemented using an open source software tool called PMM-Lab. The models were made publicly available in a Food Safety Model Repository within the OpenML for Predictive Modelling in Food community project. Three different approaches were used to create new models in the model repositories: (1) all information relevant for model re-implementation is available in a scientific publication, (2) model parameters can be imported from tabular parameter collections and (3) models have to be generated from experimental data or primary model parameters. All three approaches were demonstrated in the paper. The sample Food Safety Model Repository is available via: http://sourceforge.net/projects/microbialmodelingexchange/files/models and the PMM-Lab software can be downloaded from http://sourceforge.net/projects/pmmlab/. This work also illustrates that a standardized information exchange format for predictive microbial models, as the key component of this strategy, could be established by adoption of resources from the Systems Biology domain. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison of graphite, aluminum, and TransHab shielding material characteristics in a high-energy neutron field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badhwar, G. D.; Huff, H.; Wilkins, R.; Thibeault, Sheila

2002-01-01

Space radiation transport models clearly show that low atomic weight materials provide a better shielding protection for interplanetary human missions than high atomic weight materials. These model studies have concentrated on shielding properties against charged particles. A light-weight, inflatable habitat module called TransHab was built and shown to provide adequate protection against micrometeoroid impacts and good shielding properties against charged particle radiation in the International Space Station orbits. An experiment using a tissue equivalent proportional counter, to study the changes in dose and lineal energy spectra with graphite, aluminum, and a TransHab build-up as shielding, was carried out at the Los Alamos Nuclear Science Center neutron facility. It is a continuation of a previous study using regolith and doped polyethylene materials. This paper describes the results and their comparison with the previous study. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Model systems in heterogeneous catalysis: towards the design and understanding of structure and electronic properties.

PubMed

Pan, Q; Li, L; Shaikhutdinov, S; Fujimori, Y; Hollerer, M; Sterrer, M; Freund, H-J

2018-05-29

We discuss in this paper two case studies related to nano-particle catalyst systems. One concerns a model system for the Cr/SiO2 Phillips catalyst for ethylene polymerization and here we present XPS data to complement the previously published TPD, IRAS and reactivity studies to elucidate the electronic structure of the system in some detail. The second case study provides additional information on Au nano-particles supported on ultrathin MgO(100)/Ag(100) films where we had observed a specific activity of the particle's rim at the metal-oxide interface with respect to CO2 activation and oxalate formation, obviously connected to electron transfer through the MgO film from the metal substrate underneath. Here we present XPS and Auger data, which allows detailed analysis of the observed chemical shifts. This analysis corroborates previous findings deduced via STM.

NEW MEMBERS OF THE SCORPIUS-CENTAURUS COMPLEX AND AGES OF ITS SUB-REGIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Inseok; Zuckerman, B.; Bessell, M. S.

2012-07-15

We have spectroscopically identified {approx}100 G-, K-, and M-type members of the Scorpius-Centaurus complex. To deduce the age of these young stars we compare their Li {lambda}6708 absorption line strengths against those of stars in the TW Hydrae association and {beta} Pictoris moving group. These line strengths indicate that Sco-Cen stars are younger than {beta} Pic stars whose ages of {approx}12 Myr have previously been derived from a kinematic traceback analysis. Our derived age, {approx}10 Myr, for stars in the Lower Centaurus Crux and Upper Centaurus Lupus subgroups of ScoCen is younger than previously published ages based on the movingmore » cluster method and upper main-sequence fitting. The discrepant ages are likely due to an incorrect (or lack of) cross-calibration between model-dependent and model-independent age-dating methods.« less

Comparison of Theoretical Stresses and Deflections of Multicell Wings with Experimental Results Obtained from Plastic Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zender, George W

1956-01-01

The experimental deflections and stresses of six plastic multicell-wing models of unswept, delta, and swept plan form are presented and compared with previously published theoretical results obtained by the electrical analog method. The comparisons indicate that the theory is reliable except for the evaluation of stresses in the vicinity of the leading edge of delta wings and the leading and trailing edges of swept wings. The stresses in these regions are questionable, apparently because of simplifications employed in idealizing the actual structure for theoretical purposes and because of local effects of concentrated loads.

A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.

PubMed

Hempel, Karsten; Earn, David J D

2015-05-06

Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

A Diversified Investment Strategy Using Autonomous Agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbosa, Rui Pedro; Belo, Orlando

In a previously published article, we presented an architecture for implementing agents with the ability to trade autonomously in the Forex market. At the core of this architecture is an ensemble of classification and regression models that is used to predict the direction of the price of a currency pair. In this paper, we will describe a diversified investment strategy consisting of five agents which were implemented using that architecture. By simulating trades with 18 months of out-of-sample data, we will demonstrate that data mining models can produce profitable predictions, and that the trading risk can be diminished through investment diversification.

The Persistence of the Gender Gap in Introductory Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kost, Lauren E.; Pollock, Steven J.; Finkelstein, Noah D.

2008-10-01

We previously showed[l] that despite teaching with interactive engagement techniques, the gap in performance between males and females on conceptual learning surveys persisted from pre- to posttest, at our institution. Such findings were counter to previously published work[2]. Our current work analyzes factors that may influence the observed gender gap in our courses. Posttest conceptual assessment data are modeled using both multiple regression and logistic regression analyses to estimate the gender gap in posttest scores after controlling for background factors that vary by gender. We find that at our institution the gender gap persists in interactive physics classes, but is largely due to differences in physics and math preparation and incoming attitudes and beliefs.

A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.

PubMed

Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

2016-06-01

Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations.

Revisiting the Table 2 fallacy: A motivating example examining preeclampsia and preterm birth.

PubMed

Bandoli, Gretchen; Palmsten, Kristin; Chambers, Christina D; Jelliffe-Pawlowski, Laura L; Baer, Rebecca J; Thompson, Caroline A

2018-05-21

A "Table Fallacy," as coined by Westreich and Greenland, reports multiple adjusted effect estimates from a single model. This practice, which remains common in published literature, can be problematic when different types of effect estimates are presented together in a single table. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively illustrate this potential for misinterpretation with an example estimating the effects of preeclampsia on preterm birth. We analysed a retrospective population-based cohort of 2 963 888 singleton births in California between 2007 and 2012. We performed a modified Poisson regression to calculate the total effect of preeclampsia on the risk of PTB, adjusting for previous preterm birth. pregnancy alcohol abuse, maternal education, and maternal socio-demographic factors (Model 1). In subsequent models, we report the total effects of previous preterm birth, alcohol abuse, and education on the risk of PTB, comparing and contrasting the controlled direct effects, total effects, and confounded effect estimates, resulting from Model 1. The effect estimate for previous preterm birth (a controlled direct effect in Model 1) increased 10% when estimated as a total effect. The risk ratio for alcohol abuse, biased due to an uncontrolled confounder in Model 1, was reduced by 23% when adjusted for drug abuse. The risk ratio for maternal education, solely a predictor of the outcome, was essentially unchanged. Reporting multiple effect estimates from a single model may lead to misinterpretation and lack of reproducibility. This example highlights the need for careful consideration of the types of effects estimated in statistical models. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Force Modelling in Orthogonal Cutting Considering Flank Wear Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rathod, Kanti Bhikhubhai; Lalwani, Devdas I.

2017-05-01

In the present work, an attempt has been made to provide a predictive cutting force model during orthogonal cutting by combining two different force models, that is, a force model for a perfectly sharp tool plus considering the effect of edge radius and a force model for a worn tool. The first force model is for a perfectly sharp tool that is based on Oxley's predictive machining theory for orthogonal cutting as the Oxley's model is for perfectly sharp tool, the effect of cutting edge radius (hone radius) is added and improve model is presented. The second force model is based on worn tool (flank wear) that was proposed by Waldorf. Further, the developed combined force model is also used to predict flank wear width using inverse approach. The performance of the developed combined total force model is compared with the previously published results for AISI 1045 and AISI 4142 materials and found reasonably good agreement.

A new risk prediction model for critical care: the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model.

PubMed

Harrison, David A; Parry, Gareth J; Carpenter, James R; Short, Alasdair; Rowan, Kathy

2007-04-01

To develop a new model to improve risk prediction for admissions to adult critical care units in the UK. Prospective cohort study. The setting was 163 adult, general critical care units in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, December 1995 to August 2003. Patients were 216,626 critical care admissions. None. The performance of different approaches to modeling physiologic measurements was evaluated, and the best methods were selected to produce a new physiology score. This physiology score was combined with other information relating to the critical care admission-age, diagnostic category, source of admission, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation before admission-to develop a risk prediction model. Modeling interactions between diagnostic category and physiology score enabled the inclusion of groups of admissions that are frequently excluded from risk prediction models. The new model showed good discrimination (mean c index 0.870) and fit (mean Shapiro's R 0.665, mean Brier's score 0.132) in 200 repeated validation samples and performed well when compared with recalibrated versions of existing published risk prediction models in the cohort of patients eligible for all models. The hypothesis of perfect fit was rejected for all models, including the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model, as is to be expected in such a large cohort. The ICNARC model demonstrated better discrimination and overall fit than existing risk prediction models, even following recalibration of these models. We recommend it be used to replace previously published models for risk adjustment in the UK.

The evolution of human phenotypic plasticity: age and nutritional status at maturity.

PubMed

Gage, Timothy B

2003-08-01

Several evolutionary optimal models of human plasticity in age and nutritional status at reproductive maturation are proposed and their dynamics examined. These models differ from previously published models because fertility is not assumed to be a function of body size or nutritional status. Further, the models are based on explicitly human demographic patterns, that is, model human life-tables, model human fertility tables, and, a nutrient flow-based model of maternal nutritional status. Infant survival (instead of fertility as in previous models) is assumed to be a function of maternal nutritional status. Two basic models are examined. In the first the cost of reproduction is assumed to be a constant proportion of total nutrient flow. In the second the cost of reproduction is constant for each birth. The constant proportion model predicts a negative slope of age and nutritional status at maturation. The constant cost per birth model predicts a positive slope of age and nutritional status at maturation. Either model can account for the secular decline in menarche observed over the last several centuries in Europe. A search of the growth literature failed to find definitive empirical documentation of human phenotypic plasticity in age and nutritional status at maturation. Most research strategies confound genetics with phenotypic plasticity. The one study that reports secular trends suggests a marginally insignificant, but positive slope. This view tends to support the constant cost per birth model.

Analysis of a kinetic multi-segment foot model. Part I: Model repeatability and kinematic validity.

PubMed

Bruening, Dustin A; Cooney, Kevin M; Buczek, Frank L

2012-04-01

Kinematic multi-segment foot models are still evolving, but have seen increased use in clinical and research settings. The addition of kinetics may increase knowledge of foot and ankle function as well as influence multi-segment foot model evolution; however, previous kinetic models are too complex for clinical use. In this study we present a three-segment kinetic foot model and thorough evaluation of model performance during normal gait. In this first of two companion papers, model reference frames and joint centers are analyzed for repeatability, joint translations are measured, segment rigidity characterized, and sample joint angles presented. Within-tester and between-tester repeatability were first assessed using 10 healthy pediatric participants, while kinematic parameters were subsequently measured on 17 additional healthy pediatric participants. Repeatability errors were generally low for all sagittal plane measures as well as transverse plane Hindfoot and Forefoot segments (median<3°), while the least repeatable orientations were the Hindfoot coronal plane and Hallux transverse plane. Joint translations were generally less than 2mm in any one direction, while segment rigidity analysis suggested rigid body behavior for the Shank and Hindfoot, with the Forefoot violating the rigid body assumptions in terminal stance/pre-swing. Joint excursions were consistent with previously published studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian population analysis of a washin-washout physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for acetone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moerk, Anna-Karin, E-mail: anna-karin.mork@ki.s; Jonsson, Fredrik; Pharsight, a Certara company, St. Louis, MO

2009-11-01

The aim of this study was to derive improved estimates of population variability and uncertainty of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model parameters, especially of those related to the washin-washout behavior of polar volatile substances. This was done by optimizing a previously published washin-washout PBPK model for acetone in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The sensitivity of the model parameters was investigated by creating four different prior sets, where the uncertainty surrounding the population variability of the physiological model parameters was given values corresponding to coefficients of variation of 1%, 25%, 50%, and 100%, respectively. The PBPKmore » model was calibrated to toxicokinetic data from 2 previous studies where 18 volunteers were exposed to 250-550 ppm of acetone at various levels of workload. The updated PBPK model provided a good description of the concentrations in arterial, venous, and exhaled air. The precision of most of the model parameter estimates was improved. New information was particularly gained on the population distribution of the parameters governing the washin-washout effect. The results presented herein provide a good starting point to estimate the target dose of acetone in the working and general populations for risk assessment purposes.« less

Quantifying uncertainty in carbon and nutrient pools of coarse woody debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

See, C. R.; Campbell, J. L.; Fraver, S.; Domke, G. M.; Harmon, M. E.; Knoepp, J. D.; Woodall, C. W.

2016-12-01

Woody detritus constitutes a major pool of both carbon and nutrients in forested ecosystems. Estimating coarse wood stocks relies on many assumptions, even when full surveys are conducted. Researchers rarely report error in coarse wood pool estimates, despite the importance to ecosystem budgets and modelling efforts. To date, no study has attempted a comprehensive assessment of error rates and uncertainty inherent in the estimation of this pool. Here, we use Monte Carlo analysis to propagate the error associated with the major sources of uncertainty present in the calculation of coarse wood carbon and nutrient (i.e., N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Na) pools. We also evaluate individual sources of error to identify the importance of each source of uncertainty in our estimates. We quantify sampling error by comparing the three most common field methods used to survey coarse wood (two transect methods and a whole-plot survey). We quantify the measurement error associated with length and diameter measurement, and technician error in species identification and decay class using plots surveyed by multiple technicians. We use previously published values of model error for the four most common methods of volume estimation: Smalian's, conical frustum, conic paraboloid, and average-of-ends. We also use previously published values for error in the collapse ratio (cross-sectional height/width) of decayed logs that serves as a surrogate for the volume remaining. We consider sampling error in chemical concentration and density for all decay classes, using distributions from both published and unpublished studies. Analytical uncertainty is calculated using standard reference plant material from the National Institute of Standards. Our results suggest that technician error in decay classification can have a large effect on uncertainty, since many of the error distributions included in the calculation (e.g. density, chemical concentration, volume-model selection, collapse ratio) are decay-class specific.

An age-specific biokinetic model for iodine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leggett, Richard Wayne

This study reviews age-specific biokinetic data for iodine in humans and extends to pre-adult ages the baseline parameter values of the author’s previously published model for systemic iodine in adult humans. Compared with the ICRP’s current age-specific model for iodine introduced in Publication 56 (1989), the present model provides a more detailed description of the behavior of iodine in the human body; predicts greater cumulative (integrated) activity in the thyroid for short-lived isotopes of iodine; predicts similar cumulative activity in the thyroid for isotopes with half-time greater than a few hours; and, for most iodine isotopes, predicts much greater cumulativemore » activity in salivary glands, stomach wall, liver, and kidneys.« less

An age-specific biokinetic model for iodine

DOE PAGES

Leggett, Richard Wayne

2017-10-26

This study reviews age-specific biokinetic data for iodine in humans and extends to pre-adult ages the baseline parameter values of the author’s previously published model for systemic iodine in adult humans. Compared with the ICRP’s current age-specific model for iodine introduced in Publication 56 (1989), the present model provides a more detailed description of the behavior of iodine in the human body; predicts greater cumulative (integrated) activity in the thyroid for short-lived isotopes of iodine; predicts similar cumulative activity in the thyroid for isotopes with half-time greater than a few hours; and, for most iodine isotopes, predicts much greater cumulativemore » activity in salivary glands, stomach wall, liver, and kidneys.« less

Development and external validation of new ultrasound-based mathematical models for preoperative prediction of high-risk endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Van Holsbeke, C; Ameye, L; Testa, A C; Mascilini, F; Lindqvist, P; Fischerova, D; Frühauf, F; Fransis, S; de Jonge, E; Timmerman, D; Epstein, E

2014-05-01

To develop and validate strategies, using new ultrasound-based mathematical models, for the prediction of high-risk endometrial cancer and compare them with strategies using previously developed models or the use of preoperative grading only. Women with endometrial cancer were prospectively examined using two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) gray-scale and color Doppler ultrasound imaging. More than 25 ultrasound, demographic and histological variables were analyzed. Two logistic regression models were developed: one 'objective' model using mainly objective variables; and one 'subjective' model including subjective variables (i.e. subjective impression of myometrial and cervical invasion, preoperative grade and demographic variables). The following strategies were validated: a one-step strategy using only preoperative grading and two-step strategies using preoperative grading as the first step and one of the new models, subjective assessment or previously developed models as a second step. One-hundred and twenty-five patients were included in the development set and 211 were included in the validation set. The 'objective' model retained preoperative grade and minimal tumor-free myometrium as variables. The 'subjective' model retained preoperative grade and subjective assessment of myometrial invasion. On external validation, the performance of the new models was similar to that on the development set. Sensitivity for the two-step strategy with the 'objective' model was 78% (95% CI, 69-84%) at a cut-off of 0.50, 82% (95% CI, 74-88%) for the strategy with the 'subjective' model and 83% (95% CI, 75-88%) for that with subjective assessment. Specificity was 68% (95% CI, 58-77%), 72% (95% CI, 62-80%) and 71% (95% CI, 61-79%) respectively. The two-step strategies detected up to twice as many high-risk cases as preoperative grading only. The new models had a significantly higher sensitivity than did previously developed models, at the same specificity. Two-step strategies with 'new' ultrasound-based models predict high-risk endometrial cancers with good accuracy and do this better than do previously developed models. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Three-factor models versus time series models: quantifying time-dependencies of interactions between stimuli in cell biology and psychobiology for short longitudinal data.

PubMed

Frank, Till D; Kiyatkin, Anatoly; Cheong, Alex; Kholodenko, Boris N

2017-06-01

Signal integration determines cell fate on the cellular level, affects cognitive processes and affective responses on the behavioural level, and is likely to be involved in psychoneurobiological processes underlying mood disorders. Interactions between stimuli may subjected to time effects. Time-dependencies of interactions between stimuli typically lead to complex cell responses and complex responses on the behavioural level. We show that both three-factor models and time series models can be used to uncover such time-dependencies. However, we argue that for short longitudinal data the three factor modelling approach is more suitable. In order to illustrate both approaches, we re-analysed previously published short longitudinal data sets. We found that in human embryonic kidney 293 cells cells the interaction effect in the regulation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) 1 signalling activation by insulin and epidermal growth factor is subjected to a time effect and dramatically decays at peak values of ERK activation. In contrast, we found that the interaction effect induced by hypoxia and tumour necrosis factor-alpha for the transcriptional activity of the human cyclo-oxygenase-2 promoter in HEK293 cells is time invariant at least in the first 12-h time window after stimulation. Furthermore, we applied the three-factor model to previously reported animal studies. In these studies, memory storage was found to be subjected to an interaction effect of the beta-adrenoceptor agonist clenbuterol and certain antagonists acting on the alpha-1-adrenoceptor / glucocorticoid-receptor system. Our model-based analysis suggests that only if the antagonist drug is administer in a critical time window, then the interaction effect is relevant. © The authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

Experimental validation of new empirical models of the thermal properties of food products for safe shipping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, Hanan H.; Mitchell, Mark; Jahangiri, Amirreza; Thiel, David V.

2018-04-01

Temperature controlled food transport is essential for human safety and to minimise food waste. The thermal properties of food are important for determining the heat transfer during the transient stages of transportation (door opening during loading and unloading processes). For example, the temperature of most dairy products must be confined to a very narrow range (3-7 °C). If a predefined critical temperature is exceeded, the food is defined as spoiled and unfit for human consumption. An improved empirical model for the thermal conductivity and specific heat capacity of a wide range of food products was derived based on the food composition (moisture, fat, protein, carbohydrate and ash). The models that developed using linear regression analysis were compared with the published measured parameters in addition to previously published theoretical and empirical models. It was found that the maximum variation in the predicated thermal properties leads to less than 0.3 °C temperature change. The correlation coefficient for these models was 0.96. The t-Stat test ( P-value >0.99) demonstrated that the model results are an improvement on previous works. The transient heat transfer based on the food composition and the temperature boundary conditions was found for a Camembert cheese (short cylindrical shape) using a multiple dimension finite difference method code. The result was verified using the heat transfer today (HTT) educational software which is based on finite volume method. The core temperature rises from the initial temperature (2.7 °C) to the maximum safe temperature in ambient air (20.24 °C) was predicted to within about 35.4 ± 0.5 min. The simulation results agree very well ( +0.2 °C) with the measured temperature data. This improved model impacts on temperature estimation during loading and unloading the trucks and provides a clear direction for temperature control in all refrigerated transport applications.

Development of a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Model to Determine Dosimetry and Cholinesterase Inhibition for a Binary Mixture of Chlorpyrifos and Diazinon in the Rat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Timchalk, Chuck; Poet, Torka S.

2008-05-01

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) models have been developed and validated for the organophosphorus (OP) insecticides chlorpyrifos (CPF) and diazinon (DZN). Based on similar pharmacokinetic and mode of action properties it is anticipated that these OPs could interact at a number of important metabolic steps including: CYP450 mediated activation/detoxification, and blood/tissue cholinesterase (ChE) binding/inhibition. We developed a binary PBPK/PD model for CPF, DZN and their metabolites based on previously published models for the individual insecticides. The metabolic interactions (CYP450) between CPF and DZN were evaluated in vitro and suggests that CPF is more substantially metabolized to its oxon metabolite than ismore » DZN. These data are consistent with their observed in vivo relative potency (CPF>DZN). Each insecticide inhibited the other’s in vitro metabolism in a concentration-dependent manner. The PBPK model code used to described the metabolism of CPF and DZN was modified to reflect the type of inhibition kinetics (i.e. competitive vs. non-competitive). The binary model was then evaluated against previously published rodent dosimetry and ChE inhibition data for the mixture. The PBPK/PD model simulations of the acute oral exposure to single- (15 mg/kg) vs. binary-mixtures (15+15 mg/kg) of CFP and DZN at this lower dose resulted in no differences in the predicted pharmacokinetics of either the parent OPs or their respective metabolites; whereas, a binary oral dose of CPF+DZN at 60+60 mg/kg did result in observable changes in the DZN pharmacokinetics. Cmax was more reasonably fit by modifying the absorption parameters. It is anticipated that at low environmentally relevant binary doses, most likely to be encountered in occupational or environmental related exposures, that the pharmacokinetics are expected to be linear, and ChE inhibition dose-additive.« less

Exhumation of the Black Mountains in Death Valley, California, with new thermochronometric data from the Badwater Turtleback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sizemore, T. M.; Cemen, I.; Wielicki, M. M.; Stockli, D. F.; Heizler, M. T.; Lutz, B. M.

2017-12-01

The Black Mountains, in Death Valley, California, are one of the key areas to better understand Basin and Range extension because they contain Cenozoic igneous and sedimentary rocks overlying mid- to deep-crustal, 1.74 Ga basement gneiss with abundant fault striations, large-scale extensional folds, and tectonite fabrics containing top-to-the-northwest shear-sense indicators. These rocks make up the footwall of three prominent, high-relief "turtleback" fault surfaces in the western flank of the Black Mountains, which are thought to have accommodated a significant amount of strain in the Death Valley area. It is unknown whether the missing Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata in the Black Mountains were removed in association with high-angle faulting, or along a continuous detachment surface with a rolling-hinge style of faulting as the hanging wall moved to the west, now forming the Panamint Range. The turtlebacks play an important role in resolving this question because they are commonly cited as containing conflicting evidence of both hypotheses. To provide insight into this problem, we are building an exhumation model across the Black Mountains using previously published thermochronometric data as well as new transect-based (U-Th)/He and Ar-Ar thermochronology and U-Pb geochronology for the Badwater turtleback. The model will provide a four-dimensional view of the exhumation history of the Black Mountains, to serve as evidence for either of the two previously mentioned hypotheses, or possibly some other style of exhumation. Additionally, we will compare the exhumation history of the Black Mountains to that of the Panamint Range using previously published data and interpretations. Our preliminary zircon U-Pb data suggest a crystallization age for the gneissic rocks on the Badwater turtleback of 1.74 Ga (207Pb/206Pb, 2σ error=31.8 Ma, n=6) with two younger populations at 1.46 Ga (207Pb/206Pb, 2σ error=51.8 Ma, n=3) and 79.6 Ma (206Pb/238U, 2σ error=10.0 Ma, n=2), possibly reflecting post-crystallization alteration. This is in agreement with previously published ages. The zircon 206Pb/238U ages of the Smith Mountain Granite, exposed at the top of the Badwater turtleback, range from 3.06-9.71 Ma (n=11), confirming Cenozoic intrusion of the pluton.

The design of the Model V transmission fluorimeter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, Mary H.; May, Irving; Anderson, Joseph W.

1950-01-01

The transmission fluorimeter for the measurement of the fluorescence of uranium in fluoride melts is described. The instrument incorporates several improved features which have not been published previously. Unlike the earliest models, the design of the new fluorimeter, with its close machining of parts, reduces the possibility of light leakage and also increases considerably the ease with which the various components of the instrument may be assembled and adjusted. The Model V fluorimeter is a very rugged instrument with a compact arrangement of parts. It possess great flexibility so that various phototubes, measuring devices, light sources, and filter combinations may be used interchangeably. Detailed shop drawings are given for the construction of the fluorimeter.

An investigation into exoplanet transits and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Y.; Banks, T.; Budding, E.; Rhodes, M. D.

2017-06-01

A simple transit model is described along with tests of this model against published results for 4 exoplanet systems (Kepler-1, 2, 8, and 77). Data from the Kepler mission are used. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to obtain realistic error estimates. Optimisation of limb darkening coefficients is subject to data quality. It is more likely for MCMC to derive an empirical limb darkening coefficient for light curves with S/N (signal to noise) above 15. Finally, the model is applied to Kepler data for 4 Kepler candidate systems (KOI 760.01, 767.01, 802.01, and 824.01) with previously unpublished results. Error estimates for these systems are obtained via the MCMC method.

Cosmological bimetric model with interacting positive and negative masses and two different speeds of light, in agreement with the observed acceleration of the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petit, J. P.; D'Agostini, G.

2014-10-01

An extension of a previously published model of a bimetric Universe is presented, where the speeds of light associated to positive and negative mass species are different. As shown earlier, the asymmetry of the model explains the acceleration of the positive species, while the negative one slows down. Asymmetry affects scale factors linked to lengths, times and speeds of light; so that if a mass inversion of a craft can be achieved, then interstellar travels would become non-impossible at a velocity less than the speed of light of the negative sector, and possibly much higher than that of the positive sector.

Optimizing the parameters of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman, Källman, and Logit+EUD models for the rectum - a comparison between normal tissue complication probability and clinical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trojková, Darina; Judas, Libor; Trojek, Tomáš

2014-11-01

Minimizing the late rectal toxicity of prostate cancer patients is a very important and widely-discussed topic. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models can be used to evaluate competing treatment plans. In our work, the parameters of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Källman, and Logit+EUD models are optimized by minimizing the Brier score for a group of 302 prostate cancer patients. The NTCP values are calculated and are compared with the values obtained using previously published values for the parameters. χ2 Statistics were calculated as a check of goodness of optimization.

A neural network based reputation bootstrapping approach for service selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quanwang; Zhu, Qingsheng; Li, Peng

2015-10-01

With the concept of service-oriented computing becoming widely accepted in enterprise application integration, more and more computing resources are encapsulated as services and published online. Reputation mechanism has been studied to establish trust on prior unknown services. One of the limitations of current reputation mechanisms is that they cannot assess the reputation of newly deployed services as no record of their previous behaviours exists. Most of the current bootstrapping approaches merely assign default reputation values to newcomers. However, by this kind of methods, either newcomers or existing services will be favoured. In this paper, we present a novel reputation bootstrapping approach, where correlations between features and performance of existing services are learned through an artificial neural network (ANN) and they are then generalised to establish a tentative reputation when evaluating new and unknown services. Reputations of services published previously by the same provider are also incorporated for reputation bootstrapping if available. The proposed reputation bootstrapping approach is seamlessly embedded into an existing reputation model and implemented in the extended service-oriented architecture. Empirical studies of the proposed approach are shown at last.

Compilation of Test Data on 111 Free-Spinning Airplane Models Tested in the Langley 15-Foot and 20-Foot Free-Spinning Tunnels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malvestuto, Frank S.; Gale, Lawrence J.; Wood, John H.

1947-01-01

A compilation of free-spinning-airplane model data on the spin and recovery characteristics of 111 airplanes is presented. These data were previously published in separate memorandum reports and were obtained from free-spinning tests in the Langley 15-foot and the Langley 20-foot free-spinning tunnels. The model test data presented include the steady-spin and recovery characteristics of each model for various combinations of aileron and elevator deflections and for various loadings and dimensional configurations. Dimensional data, mass data, and a three-view drawing of the corresponding free-spinning tunnel model are also presented for each airplane. The data presented should be of value to designers and should facilitate the design of airplanes incorporating satisfactory spin-recovery characteristics.

Lipid correction model of carbon stable isotopes for a cosmopolitan predator, spiny dogfish Squalus acanthias.

PubMed

Reum, J C P

2011-12-01

Three lipid correction models were evaluated for liver and white dorsal muscle from Squalus acanthias. For muscle, all three models performed well, based on the Akaike Information Criterion value corrected for small sample sizes (AIC(c) ), and predicted similar lipid corrections to δ(13) C that were up to 2.8 ‰ higher than those predicted using previously published models based on multispecies data. For liver, which possessed higher bulk C:N values compared to that of white muscle, all three models performed poorly and lipid-corrected δ(13) C values were best approximated by simply adding 5.74 ‰ to bulk δ(13) C values. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Replicating Health Economic Models: Firm Foundations or a House of Cards?

PubMed

Bermejo, Inigo; Tappenden, Paul; Youn, Ji-Hee

2017-11-01

Health economic evaluation is a framework for the comparative analysis of the incremental health gains and costs associated with competing decision alternatives. The process of developing health economic models is usually complex, financially expensive and time-consuming. For these reasons, model development is sometimes based on previous model-based analyses; this endeavour is usually referred to as model replication. Such model replication activity may involve the comprehensive reproduction of an existing model or 'borrowing' all or part of a previously developed model structure. Generally speaking, the replication of an existing model may require substantially less effort than developing a new de novo model by bypassing, or undertaking in only a perfunctory manner, certain aspects of model development such as the development of a complete conceptual model and/or comprehensive literature searching for model parameters. A further motivation for model replication may be to draw on the credibility or prestige of previous analyses that have been published and/or used to inform decision making. The acceptability and appropriateness of replicating models depends on the decision-making context: there exists a trade-off between the 'savings' afforded by model replication and the potential 'costs' associated with reduced model credibility due to the omission of certain stages of model development. This paper provides an overview of the different levels of, and motivations for, replicating health economic models, and discusses the advantages, disadvantages and caveats associated with this type of modelling activity. Irrespective of whether replicated models should be considered appropriate or not, complete replicability is generally accepted as a desirable property of health economic models, as reflected in critical appraisal checklists and good practice guidelines. To this end, the feasibility of comprehensive model replication is explored empirically across a small number of recent case studies. Recommendations are put forward for improving reporting standards to enhance comprehensive model replicability.

Novel formulation of the ℳ model through the Generalized-K distribution for atmospheric optical channels.

PubMed

Garrido-Balsells, José María; Jurado-Navas, Antonio; Paris, José Francisco; Castillo-Vazquez, Miguel; Puerta-Notario, Antonio

2015-03-09

In this paper, a novel and deeper physical interpretation on the recently published Málaga or ℳ statistical distribution is provided. This distribution, which is having a wide acceptance by the scientific community, models the optical irradiance scintillation induced by the atmospheric turbulence. Here, the analytical expressions previously published are modified in order to express them by a mixture of the known Generalized-K and discrete Binomial and Negative Binomial distributions. In particular, the probability density function (pdf) of the ℳ model is now obtained as a linear combination of these Generalized-K pdf, in which the coefficients depend directly on the parameters of the ℳ distribution. In this way, the Málaga model can be physically interpreted as a superposition of different optical sub-channels each of them described by the corresponding Generalized-K fading model and weighted by the ℳ dependent coefficients. The expressions here proposed are simpler than the equations of the original ℳ model and are validated by means of numerical simulations by generating ℳ -distributed random sequences and their associated histogram. This novel interpretation of the Málaga statistical distribution provides a valuable tool for analyzing the performance of atmospheric optical channels for every turbulence condition.

Research on the Natural Variability of Climate and the Impact of Anthropogenic Forcing on Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, Peter H.

2005-01-01

The paper, "Latitude-dependent vertical mixing and the tropical thermocline in a global OGCM", was revised and published in Geophysical Research Letters. It treats the new GISS mixing scheme which includes the latitudinal dependence of the interior ocean turbulence field reported by Gregg, Sanford & Winkel. When implemented in the 3x3 degree NCAR CSMl OGCM [NCOMl] the new mixing scheme produces an improved, sharper equatorial thermoclines in both the Atlantic and the Pacific while simultaneously maintaining the realistic meridional overturning and northward heat transports found already with the previous GISS scheme. Also the paper "Diagnostics of the oceanic thermohaline circulation in a coupled climate model" describing earlier work on the grany was published.

United States Registered Nurse Workforce Report Card and Shortage Forecast: A Revisit.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoming; Tai, Daniel; Pforsich, Hugh; Lin, Vernon W

This is a reevaluation of registered nurse (RN) supply and demand from 2016 to 2030 using a previously published work forecast model and grading methodology with more recent workforce data. There will be a shortage of 154 018 RNs by 2020 and 510 394 RNs by 2030; the South and West regions will have higher shortage ratios than Northeast and Midwest regions. This reflects a nearly 50% overall improvement when compared with the authors' prior study, and the low-performing states have improved from 18 "D" and 12 "F" grades as published earlier to 13 "D" and 1 "F" in this study. Although progress has been made, efforts to foster the pipelines for improving the nursing workforce need to be continued.

A mechanistic model for bromodeoxyuridine dilution naturally explains labelling data of self-renewing T cell populations

PubMed Central

Ganusov, Vitaly V.; De Boer, Rob J.

2013-01-01

Bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) is widely used in immunology to detect cell division, and several mathematical models have been proposed to estimate proliferation and death rates of lymphocytes from BrdU labelling and de-labelling curves. One problem in interpreting BrdU data is explaining the de-labelling curves. Because shortly after label withdrawal, BrdU+ cells are expected to divide into BrdU+ daughter cells, one would expect a flat down-slope. As for many cell types, the fraction of BrdU+ cells decreases during de-labelling, previous mathematical models had to make debatable assumptions to be able to account for the data. We develop a mechanistic model tracking the number of divisions that each cell has undergone in the presence and absence of BrdU, and allow cells to accumulate and dilute their BrdU content. From the same mechanistic model, one can naturally derive expressions for the mean BrdU content (MBC) of all cells, or the MBC of the BrdU+ subset, which is related to the mean fluorescence intensity of BrdU that can be measured in experiments. The model is extended to include subpopulations with different rates of division and death (i.e. kinetic heterogeneity). We fit the extended model to previously published BrdU data from memory T lymphocytes in simian immunodeficiency virus-infected and uninfected macaques, and find that the model describes the data with at least the same quality as previous models. Because the same model predicts a modest decline in the MBC of BrdU+ cells, which is consistent with experimental observations, BrdU dilution seems a natural explanation for the observed down-slopes in self-renewing populations. PMID:23034350

The ethical dimension in published animal research in critical care: the dark side of our moon.

PubMed

Huet, Olivier; de Haan, Judy B

2014-03-13

The replacement, refinement, and reduction (3Rs) guidelines are the cornerstone of animal welfare practice for medical research. Nowadays, no animal research can be performed without being approved by an animal ethics committee. Therefore, we should expect that any published article would respect and promote the highest standard of animal welfare. However, in the previous issue of Critical Care, Bara and Joffe reported an unexpected finding: animal welfare is extremely poorly reported in critical care research publications involving animal models.This may have a significant negative impact on the reliability of the results and on future funding for our research.The ability of septic shock animal models to translate into clinical studies has been a challenge. Therefore, every means to improve the quality of these models should be pursued. Animal welfare issues should be seen as an additional benefit to achieve this goal. It is therefore critical to draw conclusions from this study to improve the standard of animal welfare in critical care research. This has already been achieved in other fields of research, and we should follow their example.

Externalities and article citations: experience of a national public health journal (Gaceta Sanitaria).

PubMed

Ruano-Ravina, Alberto; Álvarez-Dardet, Carlos; Domínguez-Berjón, M Felicitas; Fernández, Esteve; García, Ana M; Borrell, Carme

2016-01-01

The purpose of the study was to analyze the determinants of citations such as publication year, article type, article topic, article selected for a press release, number of articles previously published by the corresponding author, and publication language in a Spanish journal of public health. Observational study including all articles published in Gaceta Sanitaria during 2007-2011. We retrieved the number of citations from the ISI Web of Knowledge database in June 2013 and also information on other variables such as number of articles published by the corresponding author in the previous 5 years (searched through PubMed), selection for a press release, publication language, article type and topic, and others. We included 542 articles. Of these, 62.5% were cited in the period considered. We observed an increased odds ratio of citations for articles selected for a press release and also with the number of articles published previously by the corresponding author. Articles published in English do not seem to increase their citations. Certain externalities such as number of articles published by the corresponding author and being selected for a press release seem to influence the number of citations in national journals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Machine Learning Model Analysis and Data Visualization with Small Molecules Tested in a Mouse Model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection (2014–2015)

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The renewed urgency to develop new treatments for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection has resulted in large-scale phenotypic screening and thousands of new active compounds in vitro. The next challenge is to identify candidates to pursue in a mouse in vivo efficacy model as a step to predicting clinical efficacy. We previously analyzed over 70 years of this mouse in vivo efficacy data, which we used to generate and validate machine learning models. Curation of 60 additional small molecules with in vivo data published in 2014 and 2015 was undertaken to further test these models. This represents a much larger test set than for the previous models. Several computational approaches have now been applied to analyze these molecules and compare their molecular properties beyond those attempted previously. Our previous machine learning models have been updated, and a novel aspect has been added in the form of mouse liver microsomal half-life (MLM t1/2) and in vitro-based Mtb models incorporating cytotoxicity data that were used to predict in vivo activity for comparison. Our best Mtbin vivo models possess fivefold ROC values > 0.7, sensitivity > 80%, and concordance > 60%, while the best specificity value is >40%. Use of an MLM t1/2 Bayesian model affords comparable results for scoring the 60 compounds tested. Combining MLM stability and in vitroMtb models in a novel consensus workflow in the best cases has a positive predicted value (hit rate) > 77%. Our results indicate that Bayesian models constructed with literature in vivoMtb data generated by different laboratories in various mouse models can have predictive value and may be used alongside MLM t1/2 and in vitro-based Mtb models to assist in selecting antitubercular compounds with desirable in vivo efficacy. We demonstrate for the first time that consensus models of any kind can be used to predict in vivo activity for Mtb. In addition, we describe a new clustering method for data visualization and apply this to the in vivo training and test data, ultimately making the method accessible in a mobile app. PMID:27335215

Electromigration model for the prediction of lifetime based on the failure unit statistics in aluminum metallization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong Ho; Ahn, Byung Tae

2003-01-01

A failure model for electromigration based on the "failure unit model" was presented for the prediction of lifetime in metal lines.The failure unit model, which consists of failure units in parallel and series, can predict both the median time to failure (MTTF) and the deviation in the time to failure (DTTF) in Al metal lines. The model can describe them only qualitatively. In our model, both the probability function of the failure unit in single grain segments and polygrain segments are considered instead of in polygrain segments alone. Based on our model, we calculated MTTF, DTTF, and activation energy for different median grain sizes, grain size distributions, linewidths, line lengths, current densities, and temperatures. Comparisons between our results and published experimental data showed good agreements and our model could explain the previously unexplained phenomena. Our advanced failure unit model might be further applied to other electromigration characteristics of metal lines.

Seismic Tomography of the Sacramento -- San Joaquin River Delta: Joint P-wave/Gravity and Ambient Noise Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teel, Alexander C.

The Sacramento -- San Joaquin River Delta (SSJRD) is an area that has been identified as having high seismic hazard but has resolution gaps in the seismic velocity models of the area due to a scarcity of local seismic stations and earthquakes. I present new three-dimensional (3D) P-wave velocity (Vp) and S-wave velocity (Vs) models for the SSJRD which fill in the sampling gaps of previous studies. I have created a new 3D seismic velocity model for the SSJRD, addressing an identified need for higher resolution velocity models in the region, using a new joint gravity/body-wave tomography algorithm. I am able to fit gravity and arrival-time residuals jointly using an empirical density-velocity relationship to take advantage of existing gravity data in the region to help fill in the resolution gaps of previous velocity models in the area. I find that the method enhances the ability to resolve the relief of basin structure relative to seismic-only tomography at this location. I find the depth to the basement to be the greatest in the northwest portion of the SSJRD and that there is a plateau in the basement structure beneath the southeast portion of the SSJRD. From my findings I infer that the SSJRD may be prone to focusing effects and basin amplification of ground motion. A 3D, Vs model for the SSJRD and surrounding area was created using ambient noise tomography. The empirical Green's functions are in good agreement with published cross-correlations and match earthquake waveforms sharing similar paths. The group velocity and shear velocity maps are in good agreement with published regional scale models. The new model maps velocity values on a local scale and successfully recovers the basin structure beneath the Delta. From this Vs model I find the maximum depth of the basin to reach approximately 15 km with the Great Valley Ophiolite body rising to a depth of 10 km east of the SSJRD. We consider our basement-depth estimates from the Vp model to be more robust than from the Vs model.

Testing the Dose–Response Specification in Epidemiology: Public Health and Policy Consequences for Lead

PubMed Central

Rothenberg, Stephen J.; Rothenberg, Jesse C.

2005-01-01

Statistical evaluation of the dose–response function in lead epidemiology is rarely attempted. Economic evaluation of health benefits of lead reduction usually assumes a linear dose–response function, regardless of the outcome measure used. We reanalyzed a previously published study, an international pooled data set combining data from seven prospective lead studies examining contemporaneous blood lead effect on IQ (intelligence quotient) of 7-year-old children (n = 1,333). We constructed alternative linear multiple regression models with linear blood lead terms (linear–linear dose response) and natural-log–transformed blood lead terms (log-linear dose response). We tested the two lead specifications for nonlinearity in the models, compared the two lead specifications for significantly better fit to the data, and examined the effects of possible residual confounding on the functional form of the dose–response relationship. We found that a log-linear lead–IQ relationship was a significantly better fit than was a linear–linear relationship for IQ (p = 0.009), with little evidence of residual confounding of included model variables. We substituted the log-linear lead–IQ effect in a previously published health benefits model and found that the economic savings due to U.S. population lead decrease between 1976 and 1999 (from 17.1 μg/dL to 2.0 μg/dL) was 2.2 times ($319 billion) that calculated using a linear–linear dose–response function ($149 billion). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention action limit of 10 μg/dL for children fails to protect against most damage and economic cost attributable to lead exposure. PMID:16140626

Biosphere model simulations of interannual variability in terrestrial 13C/12C exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, I. R.; Miller, J. B.; Schaefer, K.; Masarie, K. A.; Denning, S.; White, J. W. C.; Tans, P. P.; Krol, M. C.; Peters, W.

2013-09-01

Previous studies suggest that a large part of the variability in the atmospheric ratio of 13CO2/12CO2originates from carbon exchange with the terrestrial biosphere rather than with the oceans. Since this variability is used to quantitatively partition the total carbon sink, we here investigate the contribution of interannual variability (IAV) in biospheric exchange to the observed atmospheric 13C variations. We use the Simple Biosphere - Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach biogeochemical model, including a detailed isotopic fractionation scheme, separate 12C and 13C biogeochemical pools, and satellite-observed fire disturbances. This model of 12CO2 and 13CO2 thus also produces return fluxes of 13CO2from its differently aged pools, contributing to the so-called disequilibrium flux. Our simulated terrestrial 13C budget closely resembles previously published model results for plant discrimination and disequilibrium fluxes and similarly suggests that variations in C3 discrimination and year-to-year variations in C3and C4 productivity are the main drivers of their IAV. But the year-to-year variability in the isotopic disequilibrium flux is much lower (1σ=±1.5 PgC ‰ yr-1) than required (±12.5 PgC ‰ yr-1) to match atmospheric observations, under the common assumption of low variability in net ocean CO2 fluxes. This contrasts with earlier published results. It is currently unclear how to increase IAV in these drivers suggesting that SiBCASA still misses processes that enhance variability in plant discrimination and relative C3/C4productivity. Alternatively, 13C budget terms other than terrestrial disequilibrium fluxes, including possibly the atmospheric growth rate, must have significantly different IAV in order to close the atmospheric 13C budget on a year-to-year basis.

The use of animal models in homeopathic research--a review of 2010-2014 PubMed indexed papers.

PubMed

Bonamin, Leoni Villano; Cardoso, Thayná Neves; de Carvalho, Aloísio Cunha; Amaral, Juliana Gimenez

2015-10-01

In the 1990s, a study was performed on the effects of highly diluted thyroxine on frog metamorphosis. This model represented one of the most discussed examples of the biological effects of high dilutions over the next two decades. In 2010, another critical conceptual review of the use of animal models in homeopathy and high-dilution research was published. The main contribution of these studies was the elucidation of the biological features and phenomenology of the effects of high dilutions on living systems, representing an important step forward in our understanding of the mechanisms of action of homeopathic medicines. We performed a further review of this line of investigation using the same methods. Fifty-three articles that were indexed in the PubMed database and used 12 different animal species were systematically evaluated. Only a fraction of the studies (29/53) reported herein were performed with "ultra high" dilutions. The other studies were performed with dilutions in ranges below 10(-23) (14/53 articles) or commercial complexes (10/53 articles). Only two articles reported negative results; both used in vivo protocols to test commercial complexes, one in fish and one in bees. The quality of the employed techniques improved in 2010-2014 compared with the studies that were reviewed previously in 2010, with the inclusion of more ethically refined protocols, including in vitro primary cell cultures and ex vivo studies (10/53 articles), often with three or more replicates and analyses of epigenetic mechanisms that were previously unknown in 2010. In our updated review of the past 5 years, we found further demonstrations of the biological effects of homeopathy using more refined animal models and in vitro techniques. Copyright © 2015 The Faculty of Homeopathy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contributions to muscle force and EMG by combined neural excitation and electrical stimulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crago, Patrick E.; Makowski, Nathaniel S.; Cole, Natalie M.

2014-10-01

Objective. Stimulation of muscle for research or clinical interventions is often superimposed on ongoing physiological activity without a quantitative understanding of the impact of the stimulation on the net muscle activity and the physiological response. Experimental studies show that total force during stimulation is less than the sum of the isolated voluntary and stimulated forces, but the occlusion mechanism is not understood. Approach. We develop a model of efferent motor activity elicited by superimposing stimulation during a physiologically activated contraction. The model combines action potential interactions due to collision block, source resetting, and refractory periods with previously published models of physiological motor unit recruitment, rate modulation, force production, and EMG generation in human first dorsal interosseous muscle to investigate the mechanisms and effectiveness of stimulation on the net muscle force and EMG. Main results. Stimulation during a physiological contraction demonstrates partial occlusion of force and the neural component of the EMG, due to action potential interactions in motor units activated by both sources. Depending on neural and stimulation firing rates as well as on force-frequency properties, individual motor unit forces can be greater, smaller, or unchanged by the stimulation. In contrast, voluntary motor unit EMG potentials in simultaneously stimulated motor units show progressive occlusion with increasing stimulus rate. The simulations predict that occlusion would be decreased by a reverse stimulation recruitment order. Significance. The results are consistent with and provide a mechanistic interpretation of previously published experimental evidence of force occlusion. The models also predict two effects that have not been reported previously—voluntary EMG occlusion and the advantages of a proximal stimulation site. This study provides a basis for the rational design of both future experiments and clinical neuroprosthetic interventions involving either motor or sensory stimulation.

Application of simple mathematical expressions to relate the half-lives of xenobiotics in rats to values in humans.

PubMed

Ward, Keith W; Erhardt, Paul; Bachmann, Kenneth

2005-01-01

Previous publications from GlaxoSmithKline and University of Toledo laboratories convey our independent attempts to predict the half-lives of xenobiotics in humans using data obtained from rats. The present investigation was conducted to compare the performance of our published models against a common dataset obtained by merging the two sets of rat versus human half-life (hHL) data previously used by each laboratory. After combining data, mathematical analyses were undertaken by deploying both of our previous models, namely the use of an empirical algorithm based on a best-fit model and the use of rat-to-human liver blood flow ratios as a half-life correction factor. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses were performed, as well as evaluation of the impact of molecular properties on predictability. The merged dataset was remarkably diverse with respect to physiochemical and pharmacokinetic (PK) properties. Application of both models revealed similar predictability, depending upon the measure of stipulated accuracy. Certain molecular features, particularly rotatable bond count and pK(a), appeared to influence the accuracy of prediction. This collaborative effort has resulted in an improved understanding and appreciation of the value of rats to serve as a surrogate for the prediction of xenobiotic half-lives in humans when clinical pharmacokinetic studies are not possible or practicable.

Data-driven mapping of hypoxia-related tumor heterogeneity using DCE-MRI and OE-MRI.

PubMed

Featherstone, Adam K; O'Connor, James P B; Little, Ross A; Watson, Yvonne; Cheung, Sue; Babur, Muhammad; Williams, Kaye J; Matthews, Julian C; Parker, Geoff J M

2018-04-01

Previous work has shown that combining dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-MRI and oxygen-enhanced (OE)-MRI binary enhancement maps can identify tumor hypoxia. The current work proposes a novel, data-driven method for mapping tissue oxygenation and perfusion heterogeneity, based on clustering DCE/OE-MRI data. DCE-MRI and OE-MRI were performed on nine U87 (glioblastoma) and seven Calu6 (non-small cell lung cancer) murine xenograft tumors. Area under the curve and principal component analysis features were calculated and clustered separately using Gaussian mixture modelling. Evaluation metrics were calculated to determine the optimum feature set and cluster number. Outputs were quantitatively compared with a previous non data-driven approach. The optimum method located six robustly identifiable clusters in the data, yielding tumor region maps with spatially contiguous regions in a rim-core structure, suggesting a biological basis. Mean within-cluster enhancement curves showed physiologically distinct, intuitive kinetics of enhancement. Regions of DCE/OE-MRI enhancement mismatch were located, and voxel categorization agreed well with the previous non data-driven approach (Cohen's kappa = 0.61, proportional agreement = 0.75). The proposed method locates similar regions to the previous published method of binarization of DCE/OE-MRI enhancement, but renders a finer segmentation of intra-tumoral oxygenation and perfusion. This could aid in understanding the tumor microenvironment and its heterogeneity. Magn Reson Med 79:2236-2245, 2018. © 2017 The Authors Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2017 The Authors Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Analysis of the harmonic and intermodulation distortion in a multimode fiber optic link.

PubMed

Gasulla, I; Capmany, J

2007-07-23

We present an analytical evaluation of the harmonic and the intermodulation distortion effects produced in the transmission of an analog signal composed of various RF tones through a multimode fiber link. It is based on the electric field propagation model previously published by the authors. Results show the possibility of implementing subcarrier multiplexing techniques (SCM) with Composite Second Order (CSO) values below -50 dBc over short and middle reach multimode fiber links.

Selecting for Function: Solution Synthesis of Magnetic Nanopropellers

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

We show that we can select magnetically steerable nanopropellers from a set of carbon coated aggregates of magnetic nanoparticles using weak homogeneous rotating magnetic fields. The carbon coating can be functionalized, enabling a wide range of applications. Despite their arbitrary shape, all nanostructures propel parallel to the vector of rotation of the magnetic field. We use a simple theoretical model to find experimental conditions to select nanopropellers which are predominantly smaller than previously published ones. PMID:24127909

Long-wavelength Low-intensity Photon Therapy (LLPT) for Traumatic Brain Injuries

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-08

analysis . These estimates are based on the variability in previously published experiments. Design: For each in vivo model of TBI, rats will be...ATP, GSH, apoptotic indicators, mitochondrial function, and changes in the levels of NSE and S100B proteins will be examined. Analysis of ATP, GSH...or to be run with the sample size intended. In particular, the weight drop assays were limited to the analysis of GSH levels. The cortical contusion

Modes of Action of Intravenous Immunoglobulin in Bullous Pemphigoid.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Culton, Donna; Diaz, Luis A; Liu, Zhi

2018-06-01

Bullous pemphigoid is an autoantibody-mediated skin blistering disease. Previous studies revealed that intravenous Ig is therapeutic in animal models of bullous pemphigoid by saturating the IgG-protective receptor FcRn, thereby accelerating degradation of pathogenic IgG. Sasaoka et al. demonstrate that the inhibitory effects of intravenous Ig on bullous pemphigoid are also associated with negative modulation of cytokine production by keratinocytes. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Review of the Match Technique as Applied to AASE-2/EASOE and SOLVE/THESEO 2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Gary A.; Bojkov, Bojan R.; Lait, Leslie R.; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Rex, Markus

2004-01-01

We apply the GSFC trajectory model with a series of ozonesondes to derive ozone loss rates in the lower stratosphere for the AASE-2/EASOE mission (January - March 1992) and for the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 mission (January - March 2000) in an approach similar to Match. Ozone loss rates are computed by comparing the ozone concentrations provided by ozonesondes launched at the beginning and end of the trajectories connecting the launches. We investigate the sensitivity of the Match results on the various parameters used to reject potential matches in the original Match technique and conclude that only a filter based on potential vorticity changes along the calculated back trajectory seems necessary. Our study also demonstrates that calculated ozone loss rates can vary by up to a factor of two depending upon the precise trajectory paths calculated for each trajectory. As a result an additional systematic error might need to be added to the statistical uncertainties published with previous Match results. The sensitivity to the trajectory path is particularly pronounced in the month of January, the month during which the largest ozone loss rate discrepancies between photochemical models and Match are found. For most of the two study periods, our ozone loss rates agree with those previously published. Notable exceptions are found for January 1992 at 475 K and late February/early March 2000 at 450 K, both periods during which we find less loss than the previous studies. Integrated ozone loss rates in both years compare well with those found in numerous other studies and in a potential vorticity/potential temperature approach shown previously and in this paper. Finally, we suggest an alternate approach to Match using trajectory mapping that appears to more accurately reflect the true uncertainties associated with Match and reduces the dependence upon filters that may bias the results of Match through the rejection of greater than or equal to 80% of the matched sonde pairs and >99% of matched observations.

Photon beam asymmetry Σ for η and η‧ photoproduction from the proton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, P.; Ritchie, B. G.; Dugger, M.; Anisovich, A. V.; Döring, M.; Klempt, E.; Nikonov, V. A.; Rönchen, D.; Sadasivan, D.; Sarantsev, A.; Adhikari, K. P.; Akbar, Z.; Amaryan, M. J.; Anefalos Pereira, S.; Avakian, H.; Ball, J.; Balossino, I.; Bashkanov, M.; Battaglieri, M.; Bedlinskiy, I.; Biselli, A. S.; Briscoe, W. J.; Brooks, W. K.; Burkert, V. D.; Cao, Frank Thanh; Carman, D. S.; Celentano, A.; Chandavar, S.; Charles, G.; Chetry, T.; Ciullo, G.; Clark, L.; Colaneri, L.; Cole, P. L.; Compton, N.; Contalbrigo, M.; Cortes, O.; Crede, V.; D'Angelo, A.; Dashyan, N.; De Vita, R.; De Sanctis, E.; Deur, A.; Djalali, C.; Dupre, R.; Egiyan, H.; El Alaoui, A.; El Fassi, L.; Elouadrhiri, L.; Eugenio, P.; Fanchini, E.; Fedotov, G.; Filippi, A.; Fleming, J. A.; Ghandilyan, Y.; Gilfoyle, G. P.; Giovanetti, K. L.; Girod, F. X.; Glazier, D. I.; Gleason, C.; Golovatch, E.; Gothe, R. W.; Griffioen, K. A.; Guo, L.; Hafidi, K.; Hakobyan, H.; Hanretty, C.; Harrison, N.; Heddle, D.; Hicks, K.; Holtrop, M.; Hughes, S. M.; Ilieva, Y.; Ireland, D. G.; Ishkhanov, B. S.; Isupov, E. L.; Jenkins, D.; Jo, H. S.; Joosten, S.; Keller, D.; Khachatryan, G.; Khachatryan, M.; Khandaker, M.; Kim, A.; Kim, W.; Klein, A.; Klein, F. J.; Kubarovsky, V.; Lanza, L.; Lenisa, P.; Livingston, K.; MacGregor, I. J. D.; Markov, N.; McKinnon, B.; Meyer, C. A.; Mirazita, M.; Mokeev, V.; Montgomery, R. A.; Movsisyan, A.; Munoz Camacho, C.; Murdoch, G.; Nadel-Turonski, P.; Niccolai, S.; Niculescu, G.; Niculescu, I.; Osipenko, M.; Ostrovidov, A. I.; Paolone, M.; Paremuzyan, R.; Park, K.; Pasyuk, E.; Phelps, W.; Pisano, S.; Pogorelko, O.; Price, J. W.; Prok, Y.; Protopopescu, D.; Raue, B. A.; Ripani, M.; Rizzo, A.; Rosner, G.; Roy, P.; Sabatié, F.; Salgado, C.; Schumacher, R. A.; Sharabian, Y. G.; Skorodumina, Iu.; Smith, G. D.; Sokhan, D.; Sparveris, N.; Stepanyan, S.; Strakovsky, I. I.; Strauch, S.; Taiuti, M.; Tian, Ye; Torayev, B.; Ungaro, M.; Voskanyan, H.; Voutier, E.; Walford, N. K.; Wei, X.; Zachariou, N.; Zhang, J.

2017-08-01

Measurements of the linearly-polarized photon beam asymmetry Σ for photoproduction from the proton of η and η‧ mesons are reported. A linearly-polarized tagged photon beam produced by coherent bremsstrahlung was incident on a cryogenic hydrogen target within the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer. Results are presented for the γp → ηp reaction for incident photon energies from 1.070 to 1.876 GeV, and from 1.516 to 1.836 GeV for the γp →η‧ p reaction. For γp → ηp, the data reported here considerably extend the range of measurements to higher energies, and are consistent with the few previously published measurements for this observable near threshold. For γp →η‧ p, the results obtained are consistent with the few previously published measurements for this observable near threshold, but also greatly expand the incident photon energy coverage for that reaction. Initial analysis of the data reported here with the Bonn-Gatchina model strengthens the evidence for four nucleon resonances - the N (1895) 1 /2-, N (1900) 3 /2+, N (2100) 1 /2+ and N (2120) 3 /2- resonances - which presently lack the ;four-star; status in the current Particle Data Group compilation, providing examples of how these new measurements help refine models of the photoproduction process.

Widespread occurrence of organelle genome-encoded 5S rRNAs including permuted molecules.

PubMed

Valach, Matus; Burger, Gertraud; Gray, Michael W; Lang, B Franz

2014-12-16

5S Ribosomal RNA (5S rRNA) is a universal component of ribosomes, and the corresponding gene is easily identified in archaeal, bacterial and nuclear genome sequences. However, organelle gene homologs (rrn5) appear to be absent from most mitochondrial and several chloroplast genomes. Here, we re-examine the distribution of organelle rrn5 by building mitochondrion- and plastid-specific covariance models (CMs) with which we screened organelle genome sequences. We not only recover all organelle rrn5 genes annotated in GenBank records, but also identify more than 50 previously unrecognized homologs in mitochondrial genomes of various stramenopiles, red algae, cryptomonads, malawimonads and apusozoans, and surprisingly, in the apicoplast (highly derived plastid) genomes of the coccidian pathogens Toxoplasma gondii and Eimeria tenella. Comparative modeling of RNA secondary structure reveals that mitochondrial 5S rRNAs from brown algae adopt a permuted triskelion shape that has not been seen elsewhere. Expression of the newly predicted rrn5 genes is confirmed experimentally in 10 instances, based on our own and published RNA-Seq data. This study establishes that particularly mitochondrial 5S rRNA has a much broader taxonomic distribution and a much larger structural variability than previously thought. The newly developed CMs will be made available via the Rfam database and the MFannot organelle genome annotator. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Photon beam asymmetry Σ for η and η' photoproduction from the proton

DOE PAGES

Collins, P.; Ritchie, B. G.; Dugger, M.; ...

2017-05-18

Measurements of the linearly-polarized photon beam asymmetrymore » $$\\Sigma$$ for photoproduction from the proton of $$\\eta$$ and $$\\eta^\\prime$$ mesons are reported. A linearly-polarized tagged photon beam produced by coherent bremsstrahlung was incident on a cryogenic hydrogen target within the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer. Results are presented for the $$\\gamma p \\to \\eta p$$ reaction for incident photon energies from 1.070 to 1.876 GeV, and from 1.516 to 1.836 GeV for the $$\\gamma p \\to \\eta^\\prime p$$ reaction. For $$\\gamma p \\to \\eta p$$, the data reported here considerably extend the range of measurements to higher energies, and are consistent with the few previously published measurements for this observable near threshold. For $$\\gamma p \\to \\eta^\\prime p$$, the results obtained are consistent with the few previously published measurements for this observable near threshold, but also greatly expand the incident photon energy coverage for that reaction. In conclusion, initial analysis of the data reported here with the Bonn-Gatchina model strengthens the evidence for four nucleon resonances -- the $N(1895)1/2^-$, $N(1900)3/2^+$, $N(2100)1/2^+$ and $N(2120)3/2^-$ resonances -- which presently lack the "four-star" status in the current Particle Data Group compilation, providing examples of how these new measurements help refine models of the photoproduction process.« less

Photon beam asymmetry Σ for η and η' photoproduction from the proton

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, P.; Ritchie, B. G.; Dugger, M.

Measurements of the linearly-polarized photon beam asymmetrymore » $$\\Sigma$$ for photoproduction from the proton of $$\\eta$$ and $$\\eta^\\prime$$ mesons are reported. A linearly-polarized tagged photon beam produced by coherent bremsstrahlung was incident on a cryogenic hydrogen target within the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer. Results are presented for the $$\\gamma p \\to \\eta p$$ reaction for incident photon energies from 1.070 to 1.876 GeV, and from 1.516 to 1.836 GeV for the $$\\gamma p \\to \\eta^\\prime p$$ reaction. For $$\\gamma p \\to \\eta p$$, the data reported here considerably extend the range of measurements to higher energies, and are consistent with the few previously published measurements for this observable near threshold. For $$\\gamma p \\to \\eta^\\prime p$$, the results obtained are consistent with the few previously published measurements for this observable near threshold, but also greatly expand the incident photon energy coverage for that reaction. In conclusion, initial analysis of the data reported here with the Bonn-Gatchina model strengthens the evidence for four nucleon resonances -- the $N(1895)1/2^-$, $N(1900)3/2^+$, $N(2100)1/2^+$ and $N(2120)3/2^-$ resonances -- which presently lack the "four-star" status in the current Particle Data Group compilation, providing examples of how these new measurements help refine models of the photoproduction process.« less

Local earthquake tomography of Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luckett, Richard; Baptie, Brian

2015-03-01

Scotland is a relatively aseismic region for the use of local earthquake tomography, but 40 yr of earthquakes recorded by a good and growing network make it possible. A careful selection is made from the earthquakes located by the British Geological Survey (BGS) over the last four decades to provide a data set maximising arrival time accuracy and ray path coverage of Scotland. A large number of 1-D velocity models with different layer geometries are considered and differentiated by employing quarry blasts as ground-truth events. Then, SIMULPS14 is used to produce a robust 3-D tomographic P-wave velocity model for Scotland. In areas of high resolution the model shows good agreement with previously published interpretations of seismic refraction and reflection experiments. However, the model shows relatively little lateral variation in seismic velocity except at shallow depths, where sedimentary basins such as the Midland Valley are apparent. At greater depths, higher velocities in the northwest parts of the model suggest that the thickness of crust increases towards the south and east. This observation is also in agreement with previous studies. Quarry blasts used as ground truth events and relocated with the preferred 3-D model are shown to be markedly more accurate than when located with the existing BGS 1-D velocity model.

Sensitivity of NTCP parameter values against a change of dose calculation algorithm.

PubMed

Brink, Carsten; Berg, Martin; Nielsen, Morten

2007-09-01

Optimization of radiation treatment planning requires estimations of the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). A number of models exist that estimate NTCP from a calculated dose distribution. Since different dose calculation algorithms use different approximations the dose distributions predicted for a given treatment will in general depend on the algorithm. The purpose of this work is to test whether the optimal NTCP parameter values change significantly when the dose calculation algorithm is changed. The treatment plans for 17 breast cancer patients have retrospectively been recalculated with a collapsed cone algorithm (CC) to compare the NTCP estimates for radiation pneumonitis with those obtained from the clinically used pencil beam algorithm (PB). For the PB calculations the NTCP parameters were taken from previously published values for three different models. For the CC calculations the parameters were fitted to give the same NTCP as for the PB calculations. This paper demonstrates that significant shifts of the NTCP parameter values are observed for three models, comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties of the published parameter values. Thus, it is important to quote the applied dose calculation algorithm when reporting estimates of NTCP parameters in order to ensure correct use of the models.

Sensitivity of NTCP parameter values against a change of dose calculation algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brink, Carsten; Berg, Martin; Nielsen, Morten

2007-09-15

Optimization of radiation treatment planning requires estimations of the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). A number of models exist that estimate NTCP from a calculated dose distribution. Since different dose calculation algorithms use different approximations the dose distributions predicted for a given treatment will in general depend on the algorithm. The purpose of this work is to test whether the optimal NTCP parameter values change significantly when the dose calculation algorithm is changed. The treatment plans for 17 breast cancer patients have retrospectively been recalculated with a collapsed cone algorithm (CC) to compare the NTCP estimates for radiation pneumonitis withmore » those obtained from the clinically used pencil beam algorithm (PB). For the PB calculations the NTCP parameters were taken from previously published values for three different models. For the CC calculations the parameters were fitted to give the same NTCP as for the PB calculations. This paper demonstrates that significant shifts of the NTCP parameter values are observed for three models, comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties of the published parameter values. Thus, it is important to quote the applied dose calculation algorithm when reporting estimates of NTCP parameters in order to ensure correct use of the models.« less

Inferring heat recirculation and albedo for exoplanetary atmospheres: Comparing optical phase curves and secondary eclipse data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Paris, P.; Gratier, P.; Bordé, P.; Selsis, F.

2016-03-01

Context. Basic atmospheric properties, such as albedo and heat redistribution between day- and nightsides, have been inferred for a number of planets using observations of secondary eclipses and thermal phase curves. Optical phase curves have not yet been used to constrain these atmospheric properties consistently. Aims: We model previously published phase curves of CoRoT-1b, TrES-2b, and HAT-P-7b, and infer albedos and recirculation efficiencies. These are then compared to previous estimates based on secondary eclipse data. Methods: We use a physically consistent model to construct optical phase curves. This model takes Lambertian reflection, thermal emission, ellipsoidal variations, and Doppler boosting, into account. Results: CoRoT-1b shows a non-negligible scattering albedo (0.11 < AS < 0.3 at 95% confidence) as well as small day-night temperature contrasts, which are indicative of moderate to high re-distribution of energy between dayside and nightside. These values are contrary to previous secondary eclipse and phase curve analyses. In the case of HAT-P-7b, model results suggest a relatively high scattering albedo (AS ≈ 0.3). This confirms previous phase curve analysis; however, it is in slight contradiction to values inferred from secondary eclipse data. For TrES-2b, both approaches yield very similar estimates of albedo and heat recirculation. Discrepancies between recirculation and albedo values as inferred from secondary eclipse and optical phase curve analyses might be interpreted as a hint that optical and IR observations probe different atmospheric layers, hence temperatures.

The Impact of Guided Notes on Post-Secondary Student Achievement: A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larwin, Karen H.; Larwin, David A.

2013-01-01

The common practice of using of guided notes in the post-secondary classroom is not fully appreciated or understood. In an effort to add to the existing research about this phenomenon, the current investigation expands on previously published research and one previously published meta-analysis that examined the impact of guided notes on…

A New Phenomenological Survey of Auditory Hallucinations: Evidence for Subtypes and Implications for Theory and Practice

PubMed Central

McCarthy-Jones, Simon

2014-01-01

A comprehensive understanding of the phenomenology of auditory hallucinations (AHs) is essential for developing accurate models of their causes. Yet, only 1 detailed study of the phenomenology of AHs with a sample size of N ≥ 100 has been published. The potential for overreliance on these findings, coupled with a lack of phenomenological research into many aspects of AHs relevant to contemporary neurocognitive models and the proposed (but largely untested) existence of AH subtypes, necessitates further research in this area. We undertook the most comprehensive phenomenological study of AHs to date in a psychiatric population (N = 199; 81% people diagnosed with schizophrenia), using a structured interview schedule. Previous phenomenological findings were only partially replicated. New findings included that 39% of participants reported that their voices seemed in some way to be replays of memories of previous conversations they had experienced; 45% reported that the general theme or content of what the voices said was always the same; and 55% said new voices had the same content/theme as previous voices. Cluster analysis, by variable, suggested the existence of 4 AH subtypes. We propose that there are likely to be different neurocognitive processes underpinning these experiences, necessitating revised AH models. PMID:23267192

A Simultaneous Equation Demand Model for Block Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agthe, Donald E.; Billings, R. Bruce; Dobra, John L.; Raffiee, Kambiz

1986-01-01

This paper examines the problem of simultaneous-equations bias in estimation of the water demand function under an increasing block rate structure. The Hausman specification test is used to detect the presence of simultaneous-equations bias arising from correlation of the price measures with the regression error term in the results of a previously published study of water demand in Tucson, Arizona. An alternative simultaneous equation model is proposed for estimating the elasticity of demand in the presence of block rate pricing structures and availability of service charges. This model is used to reestimate the price and rate premium elasticities of demand in Tucson, Arizona for both the usual long-run static model and for a simple short-run demand model. The results from these simultaneous equation models are consistent with a priori expectations and are unbiased.

The UV to Near-IR Optical Properties of PAHs: A Semi-Empirical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mattioda, A. L.; Allamandola, L. J.; Hudgins, D. M.

2005-01-01

Interstellar Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) infrared emission features represent an important and unique diagnostic tool of the chemical and physical conditions throughout the universe. However, one challenge facing the widely accepted PAH emission model has been the detection of infrared features in regions of low UV flux. Utilizing recently published laboratory Near Infrared VIR) PAH ion absorption data measured in our laboratory, we build upon previous models for PAH ion absorption in the UV-Vis to extrapolate a new model which incorporates PAH ion absorption in the NIR. This model provides a basis for comparing the relative energy absorption of PAH ions in the UV-Vis and NIR regions for a wide variety of stellar types. This model demonstrates that the radiation from late-type stars can pump the mid-IR PAH features.

Predictors of skilled attendance at delivery among antenatal clinic attendants in Ghana: a cross-sectional study of population data.

PubMed

Amoakoh-Coleman, Mary; Ansah, Evelyn K; Agyepong, Irene Akua; Grobbee, Diederick E; Kayode, Gbenga A; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin

2015-05-19

To identify demographic, maternal and community predictors of skilled attendance at delivery among women who attend antenatal clinic at least once during their pregnancy in Ghana. A cross-sectional study using the 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. We used frequencies for descriptive analysis, χ(2) test for associations and logistic regression to identify significant predictors. Predictive models were built with estimation of area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Ghana. A total of 2041 women who had a live birth in the 5 years preceding the survey, and attended an antenatal clinic having a skilled provider, at least once, during the pregnancy. Skilled attendance at delivery. Overall, 60.5% (1235/2041) of women in our study sample reported skilled attendance at delivery. Significant positive associations existed between skilled attendance at delivery and the variables such as maternal educational level, wealth status class, ever use of contraception, previous pregnancy complications and health insurance coverage (p<0.001). Significant predictors of skilled attendance were wealth status class, residency, previous delivery complication, health insurance coverage and religion in a model with AUC (95% CI) of 0.85 (0.83 to 0.88). Women less likely to have skilled attendance at delivery can be identified during antenatal care by using data on wealth status class, health insurance coverage, residence, history of previous birth complications and religion, and targeted with interventions to improve skilled attendance at delivery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

An evaluation of the use of remotely sensed parameters for prediction of incidence and risk associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Gulf Coast oysters (Crassostrea virginica).

PubMed

Phillips, A M B; Depaola, A; Bowers, J; Ladner, S; Grimes, D J

2007-04-01

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently published a Vibrio parahaemolyticus risk assessment for consumption of raw oysters that predicts V. parahaemolyticus densities at harvest based on water temperature. We retrospectively compared archived remotely sensed measurements (sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and turbidity) with previously published data from an environmental study of V. parahaemolyticus in Alabama oysters to assess the utility of the former data for predicting V. parahaemolyticus densities in oysters. Remotely sensed sea surface temperature correlated well with previous in situ measurements (R(2) = 0.86) of bottom water temperature, supporting the notion that remotely sensed sea surface temperature data are a sufficiently accurate substitute for direct measurement. Turbidity and chlorophyll levels were not determined in the previous study, but in comparison with the V. parahaemolyticus data, remotely sensed values for these parameters may explain some of the variation in V. parahaemolyticus levels. More accurate determination of these effects and the temporal and spatial variability of these parameters may further improve the accuracy of prediction models. To illustrate the utility of remotely sensed data as a basis for risk management, predictions based on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration V. parahaemolyticus risk assessment model were integrated with remotely sensed sea surface temperature data to display graphically variations in V. parahaemolyticus density in oysters associated with spatial variations in water temperature. We believe images such as these could be posted in near real time, and that the availability of such information in a user-friendly format could be the basis for timely and informed risk management decisions.

Utility of a blood culture time to positivity-incorporated scoring model in predicting vascular infections in adults with nontyphoid Salmonella bacteremia.

PubMed

Lin, Jr-Jiun; Weng, Tzu-Hua; Tseng, Wen-Pin; Chen, Shang-Yu; Fu, Chia-Ming; Lin, Hui-Wen; Liao, Chun-Hsing; Lee, Tai-Fen; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Chen, Shey-Ying

2018-02-21

Vascular infections (VI) are potentially catastrophic complications of nontyphoid Salmonella (NTS). We aimed to develop a scoring model incorporating information from blood culture time to positivity (TTP-NTSVI) and compared the prediction capability for VI among adults with NTS bacteremia between TTP-NTSVI and a previously published score (Chen-NTSVI). This retrospective cohort study enrolled 217 adults with NTS bacteremia ≧ 50 years old. We developed a TTP-NTSVI score by multiple logistic regression modeling to identify independent predictors for imaging-confirmed VI and assigned a point value weighting by the corresponding natural logarithm of the odds ratio for each model predictor. Chen-NTSVI score includes hypertension, male sex, serogroup C1, coronary arterial disease (CAD) as positive predictors, and malignancy and immunosuppressive therapy as negative predictors. The prediction capability of the two scores was compared by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The mean age was 68.3 ± 11.2 years-old. Serogroup D was the predominant isolate (155/217, 71.4%). Seventeen (7.8%) patients had VI. Four independent predictors for VI were identified: male sex (24.9 [2.59-239.60]; 6) (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]; assigned score point), peripheral arterial occlusive disease (9.41 [2.21-40.02]; 4), CAD (4.0 [1.16-13.86]; 3), and TTP <10 h (4.67 [1.42-15.39]; 3). Youden's index showed best cutoff value of ≧7 with 70.6% sensitivity and 82.5% specificity. TTP-NTSVI score had higher AUC than Chen-NTSVI (0.851 vs 0.741, P = 0.039). While the previously reported scoring model performed well, a TTP-incorporated scoring model was associated with improved capability in predicting NTSVI. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Kinetic analysis of hyperpolarized data with minimum a priori knowledge: Hybrid maximum entropy and nonlinear least squares method (MEM/NLS).

PubMed

Mariotti, Erika; Veronese, Mattia; Dunn, Joel T; Southworth, Richard; Eykyn, Thomas R

2015-06-01

To assess the feasibility of using a hybrid Maximum-Entropy/Nonlinear Least Squares (MEM/NLS) method for analyzing the kinetics of hyperpolarized dynamic data with minimum a priori knowledge. A continuous distribution of rates obtained through the Laplace inversion of the data is used as a constraint on the NLS fitting to derive a discrete spectrum of rates. Performance of the MEM/NLS algorithm was assessed through Monte Carlo simulations and validated by fitting the longitudinal relaxation time curves of hyperpolarized [1-(13) C] pyruvate acquired at 9.4 Tesla and at three different flip angles. The method was further used to assess the kinetics of hyperpolarized pyruvate-lactate exchange acquired in vitro in whole blood and to re-analyze the previously published in vitro reaction of hyperpolarized (15) N choline with choline kinase. The MEM/NLS method was found to be adequate for the kinetic characterization of hyperpolarized in vitro time-series. Additional insights were obtained from experimental data in blood as well as from previously published (15) N choline experimental data. The proposed method informs on the compartmental model that best approximate the biological system observed using hyperpolarized (13) C MR especially when the metabolic pathway assessed is complex or a new hyperpolarized probe is used. © 2014 The Authors. Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pharmacokinetic modeling: Prediction and evaluation of route dependent dosimetry of bisphenol A in monkeys with extrapolation to humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, Jeffrey W., E-mail: jeffrey.fisher@fda.hhs.gov; Twaddle, Nathan C.; Vanlandingham, Michelle

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed for bisphenol A (BPA) in adult rhesus monkeys using intravenous (iv) and oral bolus doses of 100 {mu}g d6-BPA/kg (). This calibrated PBPK adult monkey model for BPA was then evaluated against published monkey kinetic studies with BPA. Using two versions of the adult monkey model based on monkey BPA kinetic data from and , the aglycone BPA pharmacokinetics were simulated for human oral ingestion of 5 mg d16-BPA per person (Voelkel et al., 2002). Voelkel et al. were unable to detect the aglycone BPA in plasma, but were able to detectmore » BPA metabolites. These human model predictions of the aglycone BPA in plasma were then compared to previously published PBPK model predictions obtained by simulating the Voelkel et al. kinetic study. Our BPA human model, using two parameter sets reflecting two adult monkey studies, both predicted lower aglycone levels in human serum than the previous human BPA PBPK model predictions. BPA was metabolized at all ages of monkey (PND 5 to adult) by the gut wall and liver. However, the hepatic metabolism of BPA and systemic clearance of its phase II metabolites appear to be slower in younger monkeys than adults. The use of the current non-human primate BPA model parameters provides more confidence in predicting the aglycone BPA in serum levels in humans after oral ingestion of BPA. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A bisphenol A (BPA) PBPK model for the infant and adult monkey was constructed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The hepatic metabolic rate of BPA increased with age of the monkey. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The systemic clearance rate of metabolites increased with age of the monkey. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Gut wall metabolism of orally administered BPA was substantial across all ages of monkeys. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Aglycone BPA plasma concentrations were predicted in humans orally given oral doses of deuterated BPA.« less

GPI Spectra of HR 8799 c, d, and e from 1.5 to 2.4 μm with KLIP Forward Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenbaum, Alexandra Z.; Pueyo, Laurent; Ruffio, Jean-Baptiste; Wang, Jason J.; De Rosa, Robert J.; Aguilar, Jonathan; Rameau, Julien; Barman, Travis; Marois, Christian; Marley, Mark S.; Konopacky, Quinn; Rajan, Abhijith; Macintosh, Bruce; Ansdell, Megan; Arriaga, Pauline; Bailey, Vanessa P.; Bulger, Joanna; Burrows, Adam S.; Chilcote, Jeffrey; Cotten, Tara; Doyon, Rene; Duchêne, Gaspard; Fitzgerald, Michael P.; Follette, Katherine B.; Gerard, Benjamin; Goodsell, Stephen J.; Graham, James R.; Hibon, Pascale; Hung, Li-Wei; Ingraham, Patrick; Kalas, Paul; Larkin, James E.; Maire, Jérôme; Marchis, Franck; Metchev, Stanimir; Millar-Blanchaer, Maxwell A.; Nielsen, Eric L.; Norton, Andrew; Oppenheimer, Rebecca; Palmer, David; Patience, Jennifer; Perrin, Marshall D.; Poyneer, Lisa; Rantakyrö, Fredrik T.; Savransky, Dmitry; Schneider, Adam C.; Sivaramakrishnan, Anand; Song, Inseok; Soummer, Rémi; Thomas, Sandrine; Wallace, J. Kent; Ward-Duong, Kimberly; Wiktorowicz, Sloane; Wolff, Schuyler

2018-06-01

We explore KLIP forward modeling spectral extraction on Gemini Planet Imager coronagraphic data of HR 8799, using PyKLIP, and show algorithm stability with varying KLIP parameters. We report new and re-reduced spectrophotometry of HR 8799 c, d, and e in the H and K bands. We discuss a strategy for choosing optimal KLIP PSF subtraction parameters by injecting simulated sources and recovering them over a range of parameters. The K1/K2 spectra for HR 8799 c and d are similar to previously published results from the same data set. We also present a K-band spectrum of HR 8799 e for the first time and show that our H-band spectra agree well with previously published spectra from the VLT/SPHERE instrument. We show that HR 8799 c and d show significant differences in their H and K spectra, but do not find any conclusive differences between d and e, nor between c and e, likely due to large error bars in the recovered spectrum of e. Compared to M-, L-, and T-type field brown dwarfs, all three planets are most consistent with mid- and late-L spectral types. All objects are consistent with low gravity, but a lack of standard spectra for low gravity limit the ability to fit the best spectral type. We discuss how dedicated modeling efforts can better fit HR 8799 planets’ near-IR flux, as well as how differences between the properties of these planets can be further explored.

Efficacy of a bivalent killed whole-cell cholera vaccine over five years: a re-analysis of a cluster-randomized trial.

PubMed

Fong, Youyi; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Park, Jin Kyung; Marks, Florian; Clemens, John D; Chao, Dennis L

2018-02-20

Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is a feasible tool to prevent or mitigate cholera outbreaks. A better understanding of the vaccine's efficacy among different age groups and how rapidly its protection wanes could help guide vaccination policy. To estimate the level and duration of OCV efficacy, we re-analyzed data from a previously published cluster-randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled trial with five years of follow-up. We used a Cox proportional hazards model and modeled the potentially time-dependent effect of age categories on both vaccine efficacy and risk of infection in the placebo group. In addition, we investigated the impact of an outbreak period on model estimation. Vaccine efficacy was 38% (95% CI: -2%,62%) for those vaccinated from ages 1 to under 5 years old, 85% (95% CI: 67%,93%) for those 5 to under 15 years, and 69% (95% CI: 49%,81%) for those vaccinated at ages 15 years and older. Among adult vaccinees, efficacy did not appear to wane during the trial, but there was insufficient data to assess the waning of efficacy among child vaccinees. Through this re-analysis we were able to detect a statistically significant difference in OCV efficacy when the vaccine was administered to children under 5 years old vs. children 5 years and older. The estimated efficacies are more similar to the previously published analysis based on the first two years of follow-up than the analysis based on all five years. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00289224.

Fusion gene addiction: can tumours be forced to give up the habit?

PubMed

Selfe, Joanna L; Shipley, Janet

2017-07-01

Fusion of genes in tumours can have oncogenic roles in reprogramming cells through overexpression of oncogenes or the production of novel fusion proteins. A fundamental question in cancer biology is what genetic events are critical for initiation and whether these are also required for cancer progression. In recent work published in The Journal of Pathology, dependency on a fusion protein was addressed using a model of alveolar rhabdomyosarcomas - a sarcoma subtype with frequent fusion of PAX3 and FOXO1 genes that is associated with poor outcome. PAX3-FOXO1 encodes a potent transcription factor that together with MYCN alters the transcriptional landscape of cells. Building on previous work, an inducible model in human myoblast cells was used to show that PAX3-FOXO1 and MYCN can initiate rhabdomyosarcoma development but, contrary to current thinking, tumour recurrences occasionally arose independent of the fusion protein. Further work needs to identify the molecular nature of this independence and assess any relevance in human tumours. Such functional approaches are required together with computational modeling of molecular data to unravel spatial and temporal dependencies on specific genetic events. This may support molecular prognostic markers and therapeutic targets. Copyright © 2017 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Shift work, job strain and changes in the body mass index among women: a prospective study.

PubMed

Fujishiro, Kaori; Lividoti Hibert, Eileen; Schernhammer, Eva; Rich-Edwards, Janet W

2017-06-01

The effects of job strain and shift work on weight gain have not been studied jointly. Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies on shift work and weight gain have reported different results. This study examines potential effect modification by job strain on the link between shift work and weight gain, and concurrent and delayed effects of shift work on weight gain. Data came from 52 622 women who participated in the Nurses' Health Study II, a prospective cohort study. Using linear regression, we modelled change in body mass index (BMI) over 4 years as a function of change in job strain, cumulative exposure to rotating night shift previously and during the 4 years (ie, previous and concurrent exposures) and the interaction between job strain and concurrent shift work exposure. Age, race/ethnicity, pregnancy history, baseline BMI, job types and health behaviours at baseline were controlled for. Job strain and rotating shift work, concurrent and previous, all had independent associations with BMI change during the 4-year period. There was no evidence for effect modification by job strain. Concurrent and previous exposures to rotating night shift had different associations with BMI change: an inverted U-shape for concurrent exposure (ranging from 0.01 to 0.14 kg/m 2 increase), a dose-response for previous exposure (-0.02 to 0.09 kg/m 2 ). Job strain and rotating night shift work have independent contributions to weight gain. Reducing job strain and supporting night shift workers are both important intervention goals. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Automation process for morphometric analysis of volumetric CT data from pulmonary vasculature in rats.

PubMed

Shingrani, Rahul; Krenz, Gary; Molthen, Robert

2010-01-01

With advances in medical imaging scanners, it has become commonplace to generate large multidimensional datasets. These datasets require tools for a rapid, thorough analysis. To address this need, we have developed an automated algorithm for morphometric analysis incorporating A Visualization Workshop computational and image processing libraries for three-dimensional segmentation, vascular tree generation and structural hierarchical ordering with a two-stage numeric optimization procedure for estimating vessel diameters. We combine this new technique with our mathematical models of pulmonary vascular morphology to quantify structural and functional attributes of lung arterial trees. Our physiological studies require repeated measurements of vascular structure to determine differences in vessel biomechanical properties between animal models of pulmonary disease. Automation provides many advantages including significantly improved speed and minimized operator interaction and biasing. The results are validated by comparison with previously published rat pulmonary arterial micro-CT data analysis techniques, in which vessels were manually mapped and measured using intense operator intervention. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

A novel approach to quantify cybersecurity for electric power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaster, Paul R., Jr.

Electric Power grid cybersecurity is a topic gaining increased attention in academia, industry, and government circles, yet a method of quantifying and evaluating a system's security is not yet commonly accepted. In order to be useful, a quantification scheme must be able to accurately reflect the degree to which a system is secure, simply determine the level of security in a system using real-world values, model a wide variety of attacker capabilities, be useful for planning and evaluation, allow a system owner to publish information without compromising the security of the system, and compare relative levels of security between systems. Published attempts at quantifying cybersecurity fail at one or more of these criteria. This document proposes a new method of quantifying cybersecurity that meets those objectives. This dissertation evaluates the current state of cybersecurity research, discusses the criteria mentioned previously, proposes a new quantification scheme, presents an innovative method of modeling cyber attacks, demonstrates that the proposed quantification methodology meets the evaluation criteria, and proposes a line of research for future efforts.

The impact of the rising colorectal cancer incidence in young adults on the optimal age to start screening: Microsimulation analysis I to inform the American Cancer Society colorectal cancer screening guideline.

PubMed

Peterse, Elisabeth F P; Meester, Reinier G S; Siegel, Rebecca L; Chen, Jennifer C; Dwyer, Andrea; Ahnen, Dennis J; Smith, Robert A; Zauber, Ann G; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2018-05-30

In 2016, the Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon (MISCAN-Colon) model was used to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines. In this study, 1 of 2 microsimulation analyses to inform the update of the American Cancer Society CRC screening guideline, the authors re-evaluated the optimal screening strategies in light of the increase in CRC diagnosed in young adults. The authors adjusted the MISCAN-Colon model to reflect the higher CRC incidence in young adults, who were assumed to carry forward escalated disease risk as they age. Life-years gained (LYG; benefit), the number of colonoscopies (COL; burden) and the ratios of incremental burden to benefit (efficiency ratio [ER] = ΔCOL/ΔLYG) were projected for different screening strategies. Strategies differed with respect to test modality, ages to start (40 years, 45 years, and 50 years) and ages to stop (75 years, 80 years, and 85 years) screening, and screening intervals (depending on screening modality). The authors then determined the model-recommended strategies in a similar way as was done for the US Preventive Services Task Force, using ER thresholds in accordance with the previously accepted ER of 39. Because of the higher CRC incidence, model-predicted LYG from screening increased compared with the previous analyses. Consequently, the balance of burden to benefit of screening improved and now 10-yearly colonoscopy screening starting at age 45 years resulted in an ER of 32. Other recommended strategies included fecal immunochemical testing annually, flexible sigmoidoscopy screening every 5 years, and computed tomographic colonography every 5 years. This decision-analysis suggests that in light of the increase in CRC incidence among young adults, screening may be offered earlier than has previously been recommended. Cancer 2018. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Temporal profile of inflammatory response to fracture and hemorrhagic shock: Proposal of a novel long-term survival murine multiple trauma model.

PubMed

Kleber, Christian; Becker, Christopher A; Malysch, Tom; Reinhold, Jens M; Tsitsilonis, Serafeim; Duda, Georg N; Schmidt-Bleek, Katharina; Schaser, Klaus D

2015-07-01

Hemorrhagic shock (hS) interacts with the posttraumatic immune response and fracture healing in multiple trauma. Due to the lack of a long-term survival multiple trauma animal models, no standardized analysis of fracture healing referring the impact of multiple trauma on fracture healing was performed. We propose a new long-term survival (21 days) murine multiple trauma model combining hS (microsurgical cannulation of carotid artery, withdrawl of blood and continuously blood pressure measurement), femoral (osteotomy/external fixation) and tibial fracture (3-point bending technique/antegrade nail). The posttraumatic immune response was measured via IL-6, sIL-6R ELISA. The hS was investigated via macrohemodynamics, blood gas analysis, wet-dry lung ration and histologic analysis of the shock organs. We proposed a new murine long-term survival (21 days) multiple trauma model mimicking clinical relevant injury patterns and previously published human posttraumatic immune response. Based on blood gas analysis and histologic analysis of shock organs we characterized and standardized our murine multiple trauma model. Furthermore, we revealed hemorrhagic shock as a causative factor that triggers sIL-6R formation underscoring the fundamental pathophysiologic role of the transsignaling mechanism in multiple trauma. © 2015 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Creation and Statistical Evaluation of a Deterministic Model of the Human Bronchial Tree from HRCT Images.

PubMed

Montesantos, Spyridon; Katz, Ira; Pichelin, Marine; Caillibotte, Georges

2016-01-01

A quantitative description of the morphology of lung structure is essential prior to any form of predictive modeling of ventilation or aerosol deposition implemented within the lung. The human lung is a very complex organ, with airway structures that span two orders of magnitude and having a multitude of interfaces between air, tissue and blood. As such, current medical imaging protocols cannot provide medical practitioners and researchers with in-vivo knowledge of deeper lung structures. In this work a detailed algorithm for the generation of an individualized 3D deterministic model of the conducting part of the human tracheo-bronchial tree is described. Distinct initial conditions were obtained from the high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) images of seven healthy volunteers. The algorithm developed is fractal in nature and is implemented as a self-similar space sub-division procedure. The expansion process utilizes physiologically realistic relationships and thresholds to produce an anatomically consistent human airway tree. The model was validated through extensive statistical analysis of the results and comparison of the most common morphological features with previously published morphometric studies and other equivalent models. The resulting trees were shown to be in good agreement with published human lung geometric characteristics and can be used to study, among other things, structure-function relationships in simulation studies.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for ethyl tertiary-butyl ether and tertiary-butyl alcohol in rats: Contribution of binding to α2u-globulin in male rats and high-exposure nonlinear kinetics to toxicity and cancer outcomes.

PubMed

Borghoff, Susan J; Ring, Caroline; Banton, Marcy I; Leavens, Teresa L

2017-05-01

In cancer bioassays, inhalation, but not drinking water exposure to ethyl tertiary-butyl ether (ETBE), caused liver tumors in male rats, while tertiary-butyl alcohol (TBA), an ETBE metabolite, caused kidney tumors in male rats following exposure via drinking water. To understand the contribution of ETBE and TBA kinetics under varying exposure scenarios to these tumor responses, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model was developed based on a previously published model for methyl tertiary-butyl ether, a structurally similar chemical, and verified against the literature and study report data. The model included ETBE and TBA binding to the male rat-specific protein α2u-globulin, which plays a role in the ETBE and TBA kidney response observed in male rats. Metabolism of ETBE and TBA was described as a single, saturable pathway in the liver. The model predicted similar kidney AUC 0-∞ for TBA for various exposure scenarios from ETBE and TBA cancer bioassays, supporting a male-rat-specific mode of action for TBA-induced kidney tumors. The model also predicted nonlinear kinetics at ETBE inhalation exposure concentrations above ~2000 ppm, based on blood AUC 0-∞ for ETBE and TBA. The shift from linear to nonlinear kinetics at exposure concentrations below the concentration associated with liver tumors in rats (5000 ppm) suggests the mode of action for liver tumors operates under nonlinear kinetics following chronic exposure and is not relevant for assessing human risk. Copyright © 2016 The Authors Journal of Applied Toxicology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 The Authors Journal of Applied Toxicology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Artificial intelligence for optimal anemia management in end-stage renal disease.

PubMed

Brier, Michael E; Gaweda, Adam E

2016-08-01

Computational intelligence for the prediction of hemoglobin to guide the selection of erythropoiesis-stimulating agent dose results in improved anemia management. The models used for the prediction result from the use of individual patient data and help to increase the number of hemoglobin observations within the target range. The benefits of using these modeling techniques appear to be a decrease in erythropoiesis-stimulating agent use and a decrease in the number of transfusions. This study confirms the results of previous smaller studies and suggests that additional beneficial results may be achieved. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Oceanic Primary Production: Photoacclimation and Nutrient Effects on Light-saturated Photosynthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Maranon, Emilio; Siegel, David A.; Hooker, Stanford B.

2000-01-01

In this report, we describe a new model (the 'PhotoAcc' model) for estimating changes in the light-saturated rate of chlorophyll-normalized phytoplankton carbon fixation (Pbmax). The model is based on measurements conducted during the Atlantic Meridional Transect studies and the Bermuda Time Series program. The PhotoAcc model explained 64% to 82% of the observed variability in Pbmax for our data set, whereas none of the previously published Pbmax models described over the past 44 years explained any of the variance. The significance of this result is that a primary limiting factor for extracting ocean carbon fixation rates from satellite measurements of near surface chlorophyll has been errors in the estimate of Pbmax. Our new model should thus result in much improved calculations of oceanic photosynthesis and thus the role of the oceans in the global carbon cycle.

The Role of Hybrid Make-to-Stock (MTS) - Make-to-Order (MTO) and Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Inventory Control Models in Food and Beverage Processing Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najhan Mohd Nagib, Ahmad; Naufal Adnan, Ahmad; Ismail, Azianti; Halim, Nurul Hayati Abdul; Syuhadah Khusaini, Nurul

2016-11-01

The inventory model had been utilized since the early 1900s. The implementation of the inventory management model is generally to ensure that an organisation is able to fulfil customer's demand at the lowest possible cost to improve profitability. This paper focuses on reviewing previous published papers regarding inventory control model mainly in the food and beverage processing industry. The author discusses four inventory models, which are the make-to-stock (MTS), make-to-order (MTO), economic order quantity (EOQ), and hybrid of MTS-MTO models. The issues raised by the researchers on the above techniques as well as the elements need to be considered upon selection have been discussed in this paper. The main objective of the study is to highlight the important role played by these inventory control models in the food and beverage processing industry.

Assessment of hemoglobin responsiveness to epoetin alfa in patients on hemodialysis using a population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic model.

PubMed

Wu, Liviawati; Mould, Diane R; Perez Ruixo, Juan Jose; Doshi, Sameer

2015-10-01

A population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model describing the effect of epoetin alfa on hemoglobin (Hb) response in hemodialysis patients was developed. Epoetin alfa pharmacokinetics was described using a linear 2-compartment model. PK parameter estimates were similar to previously reported values. A maturation-structured cytokinetic model consisting of 5 compartments linked in a catenary fashion by first-order cell transfer rates following a zero-order input process described the Hb time course. The PD model described 2 subpopulations, one whose Hb response reflected epoetin alfa dosing and a second whose response was unrelated to epoetin alfa dosing. Parameter estimates from the PK/PD model were physiologically reasonable and consistent with published reports. Numerical and visual predictive checks using data from 2 studies were performed. The PK and PD of epoetin alfa were well described by the model. © 2015, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

A representation of an NTCP function for local complication mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alber, M.; Nüsslin, F.

2001-02-01

A mathematical formalism was tailored for the description of mechanisms complicating radiation therapy with a predominantly local component. The functional representation of an NTCP function was developed based on the notion that it has to be robust against population averages in order to be applicable to experimental data. The model was required to be invariant under scaling operations of the dose and the irradiated volume. The NTCP function was derived from the model assumptions that the complication is a consequence of local tissue damage and that the probability of local damage in a small reference volume is independent of the neighbouring volumes. The performance of the model was demonstrated with an animal model which has been published previously (Powers et al 1998 Radiother. Oncol. 46 297-306).

Small area estimation of obesity prevalence and dietary patterns: a model applied to Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.

PubMed

Cataife, Guido

2014-03-01

We propose the use of previously developed small area estimation techniques to monitor obesity and dietary habits in developing countries and apply the model to Rio de Janeiro city. We estimate obesity prevalence rates at the Census Tract through a combinatorial optimization spatial microsimulation model that matches body mass index and socio-demographic data in Brazil's 2008-9 family expenditure survey with Census 2010 socio-demographic data. Obesity ranges from 8% to 25% in most areas and affects the poor almost as much as the rich. Male and female obesity rates are uncorrelated at the small area level. The model is an effective tool to understand the complexity of the problem and to aid in policy design. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cleanroom certification model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Currit, P. A.

1983-01-01

The Cleanroom software development methodology is designed to take the gamble out of product releases for both suppliers and receivers of the software. The ingredients of this procedure are a life cycle of executable product increments, representative statistical testing, and a standard estimate of the MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) of the product at the time of its release. A statistical approach to software product testing using randomly selected samples of test cases is considered. A statistical model is defined for the certification process which uses the timing data recorded during test. A reasonableness argument for this model is provided that uses previously published data on software product execution. Also included is a derivation of the certification model estimators and a comparison of the proposed least squares technique with the more commonly used maximum likelihood estimators.

Calculating the dermal flux of chemicals with OELs based on their molecular structure: An attempt to assign the skin notation.

PubMed

Kupczewska-Dobecka, Małgorzata; Jakubowski, Marek; Czerczak, Sławomir

2010-09-01

Our objectives included calculating the permeability coefficient and dermal penetration rates (flux value) for 112 chemicals with occupational exposure limits (OELs) according to the LFER (linear free-energy relationship) model developed using published methods. We also attempted to assign skin notations based on each chemical's molecular structure. There are many studies available where formulae for coefficients of permeability from saturated aqueous solutions (K(p)) have been related to physicochemical characteristics of chemicals. The LFER model is based on the solvation equation, which contains five main descriptors predicted from chemical structure: solute excess molar refractivity, dipolarity/polarisability, summation hydrogen bond acidity and basicity, and the McGowan characteristic volume. Descriptor values, available for about 5000 compounds in the Pharma Algorithms Database were used to calculate permeability coefficients. Dermal penetration rate was estimated as a ratio of permeability coefficient and concentration of chemical in saturated aqueous solution. Finally, estimated dermal penetration rates were used to assign the skin notation to chemicals. Defined critical fluxes defined from the literature were recommended as reference values for skin notation. The application of Abraham descriptors predicted from chemical structure and LFER analysis in calculation of permeability coefficients and flux values for chemicals with OELs was successful. Comparison of calculated K(p) values with data obtained earlier from other models showed that LFER predictions were comparable to those obtained by some previously published models, but the differences were much more significant for others. It seems reasonable to conclude that skin should not be characterised as a simple lipophilic barrier alone. Both lipophilic and polar pathways of permeation exist across the stratum corneum. It is feasible to predict skin notation on the basis of the LFER and other published models; from among 112 chemicals 94 (84%) should have the skin notation in the OEL list based on the LFER calculations. The skin notation had been estimated by other published models for almost 94% of the chemicals. Twenty-nine (25.8%) chemicals were identified to have significant absorption and 65 (58%) the potential for dermal toxicity. We found major differences between alternative published analytical models and their ability to determine whether particular chemicals were potentially dermotoxic. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What parents don't know: Disclosure and secrecy in a sample of urban adolescents.

PubMed

Jäggi, Lena; Drazdowski, Tess K; Kliewer, Wendy

2016-12-01

Research with two-parent European households has suggested that secrecy, and not disclosure of information per se, predicts adolescent adjustment difficulties. The present study attempted to replicate this finding using data from a 4-wave study of 358 poor, urban adolescents (47% male; M age = 12 yrs) in the United States, most of whom (>92%) were African American. Adolescents self-reported secrecy, disclosure, depressive symptoms, and delinquency at each wave. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that a two-factor model with secrecy and disclosure as separate, but correlated, factors was a better fit than a one-factor model. However, predictive models differed from previous research. Secrecy did not predict depressive symptoms, rather depressive symptoms predicted secrecy. For delinquency, there were significant paths from both secrecy to delinquency and delinquency to secrecy, as well as from delinquency to disclosure. These results did not differ by age or sex. Comparisons with previous findings are discussed. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model of the Rio Grande transboundary region of New Mexico and Texas, USA, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sweetkind, Donald S.

2017-09-08

As part of a U.S. Geological Survey study in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, a digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was constructed for the Rio Grande transboundary region of New Mexico and Texas, USA, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico. This model was constructed to define the aquifer system geometry and subsurface lithologic characteristics and distribution for use in a regional numerical hydrologic model. The model includes five hydrostratigraphic units: river channel alluvium, three informal subdivisions of Santa Fe Group basin fill, and an undivided pre-Santa Fe Group bedrock unit. Model input data were compiled from published cross sections, well data, structure contour maps, selected geophysical data, and contiguous compilations of surficial geology and structural features in the study area. These data were used to construct faulted surfaces that represent the upper and lower subsurface hydrostratigraphic unit boundaries. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model is constructed through combining faults, the elevation of the tops of each hydrostratigraphic unit, and boundary lines depicting the subsurface extent of each hydrostratigraphic unit. The framework also compiles a digital representation of the distribution of sedimentary facies within each hydrostratigraphic unit. The digital three-dimensional hydrogeologic model reproduces with reasonable accuracy the previously published subsurface hydrogeologic conceptualization of the aquifer system and represents the large-scale geometry of the subsurface aquifers. The model is at a scale and resolution appropriate for use as the foundation for a numerical hydrologic model of the study area.

Wave climate and nearshore lakebed response, Illinois Beach State Park, Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booth, J.S.

1994-01-01

Only under these major storm conditions is there a realistic potential for wave-lakebed interaction (and associated wind-driven currents) to cause a significant net modification to the outer nearshore lakebed which, in turn, may promulgate change in the inner nearshore (surf) zone. Analysis of bathymetric and sediment grain-size data, used in conjuction with published wave hindcast data, wave propagation modeling, and previous studies in the area, indicates that this potential occurs, most likely, on a scale of years. -from Author

A Spatial Hedonic Analysis of the Effects of Wind Energy Facilities on Surrounding Property Values in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoen, Ben; Wiser, Ryan; Cappers, Peter

2013-08-21

This report summarizes a new analysis, building on previously published research, about wind energy’s effects on residential property values. This study helps fill research gaps by collecting and analyzing data from 27 counties across nine U.S. states, related to 67 different wind facilities, and constructs a pooled model that investigates average effects near the turbines across the sample while controlling for local variables, such as sale prices of nearby homes.

Electric dipole moment of diatomic molecules by configuration interaction. IV.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, S.

1972-01-01

The theory of basis set dependence in configuration interaction calculations is discussed, taking into account a perturbation model which is valid for small changes in the self-consistent field orbitals. It is found that basis set corrections are essentially additive through first order. It is shown that an error found in a previously published dipole moment calculation by Green (1972) for the metastable first excited state of CO was indeed due to an inadequate basis set as claimed.

Implementation of a Blowing Boundary Condition in the LAURA Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Richard a.; Gnoffo, Peter A.

2008-01-01

Preliminary steps toward modeling a coupled ablation problem using a finite-volume Navier-Stokes code (LAURA) are presented in this paper. Implementation of a surface boundary condition with mass transfer (blowing) is described followed by verification and validation through comparisons with analytic results and experimental data. Application of the code to a carbon-nosetip ablation problem is demonstrated and the results are compared with previously published data. It is concluded that the code and coupled procedure are suitable to support further ablation analyses and studies.

Short-term energy outlook. Volume 2. Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1983-05-01

Recent changes in forecasting methodology for nonutility distillate fuel oil demand and for the near-term petroleum forecasts are discussed. The accuracy of previous short-term forecasts of most of the major energy sources published in the last 13 issues of the Outlook is evaluated. Macroeconomic and weather assumptions are included in this evaluation. Energy forecasts for 1983 are compared. Structural change in US petroleum consumption, the use of appropriate weather data in energy demand modeling, and petroleum inventories, imports, and refinery runs are discussed.

Thoughts About Nursing Curricula: Dark Clouds and Bright Lights.

PubMed

Turkel, Marian C; Fawcett, Jacqueline; Amankwaa, Linda; Clarke, Pamela N; Dee, Vivien; Eustace, Rosemary; Hansell, Phyllis Shanley; Jones, Dorothy A; Smith, Marlaine C; Zahourek, Rothlyn

2018-04-01

In this essay, several nurse scholars who are particularly concerned about the contemporary state of nursing science present their concerns about the inclusion of nursing conceptual models and theories in the curricula of nursing programs (dark clouds) and ways in which the concerns have been addressed (bright lights). This essay is the second of two essays that were catalyzed by Barrett's paper, "Again, What Is Nursing Science?" The first essay was published in the previous issue of Nursing Science Quarterly.

Utility-preserving anonymization for health data publishing.

PubMed

Lee, Hyukki; Kim, Soohyung; Kim, Jong Wook; Chung, Yon Dohn

2017-07-11

Publishing raw electronic health records (EHRs) may be considered as a breach of the privacy of individuals because they usually contain sensitive information. A common practice for the privacy-preserving data publishing is to anonymize the data before publishing, and thus satisfy privacy models such as k-anonymity. Among various anonymization techniques, generalization is the most commonly used in medical/health data processing. Generalization inevitably causes information loss, and thus, various methods have been proposed to reduce information loss. However, existing generalization-based data anonymization methods cannot avoid excessive information loss and preserve data utility. We propose a utility-preserving anonymization for privacy preserving data publishing (PPDP). To preserve data utility, the proposed method comprises three parts: (1) utility-preserving model, (2) counterfeit record insertion, (3) catalog of the counterfeit records. We also propose an anonymization algorithm using the proposed method. Our anonymization algorithm applies full-domain generalization algorithm. We evaluate our method in comparison with existence method on two aspects, information loss measured through various quality metrics and error rate of analysis result. With all different types of quality metrics, our proposed method show the lower information loss than the existing method. In the real-world EHRs analysis, analysis results show small portion of error between the anonymized data through the proposed method and original data. We propose a new utility-preserving anonymization method and an anonymization algorithm using the proposed method. Through experiments on various datasets, we show that the utility of EHRs anonymized by the proposed method is significantly better than those anonymized by previous approaches.

Third-order elastic constants of diamond determined from experimental data

DOE PAGES

Winey, J. M.; Hmiel, A.; Gupta, Y. M.

2016-06-01

The pressure derivatives of the second-order elastic constants (SOECs) of diamond were determined by analyzing previous sound velocity measurements under hydrostatic stress [McSkimin and Andreatch, J. Appl. Phys. 43, 294 (1972)]. Furthermore, our analysis corrects an error in the previously reported results.We present a complete and corrected set of third-order elastic constants (TOECs) using the corrected pressure derivatives, together with published data for the nonlinear elastic response of shock compressed diamond [Lang and Gupta, Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 125502 (2011)] and it differs significantly from TOECs published previously.

A projection of lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations range-wide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cummings, Jonathan W.; Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Smith, David R.; Nichols, Clay T.; Allan, Nathan L.; O'Meilia, Chris M.

2017-08-09

We built a population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict future population status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus, LEPC) in four ecoregions across the species’ range. The model results will be used in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Species Status Assessment (SSA) for the LEPC. Our stochastic projection model combined demographic rate estimates from previously published literature with demographic rate estimates that integrate the influence of climate conditions. This LEPC PVA projects declining populations with estimated population growth rates well below 1 in each ecoregion regardless of habitat or climate change. These results are consistent with estimates of LEPC population growth rates derived from other demographic process models. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline is unlikely to be as low as modeling tools indicate, several different lines of evidence suggest LEPC populations are declining.

A Geant4 model of backscatter security imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leboffe, Eric Matthew

The operating characteristics of x ray security scanner systems that utilize backscatter signal in order to distinguish person borne threats have never been made fully available to the general public. By designing a model using Geant4, studies can be performed which will shed light on systems such as security scanners and allow for analysis of the performance and safety of the system without access to any system data. Despite the fact that the systems are no longer in use at airports in the United States, the ability to design and validate detector models and phenomena is an important capability that can be applied to many current real world applications. The model presented provides estimates for absorbed dose, effective dose and dose depth distribution that are comparable to previously published work and explores imaging capabilities for the system embodiment modeled.

Evaluation of Multiclass Model Observers in PET LROC Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gifford, H. C.; Kinahan, P. E.; Lartizien, C.; King, M. A.

2007-02-01

A localization ROC (LROC) study was conducted to evaluate nonprewhitening matched-filter (NPW) and channelized NPW (CNPW) versions of a multiclass model observer as predictors of human tumor-detection performance with PET images. Target localization is explicitly performed by these model observers. Tumors were placed in the liver, lungs, and background soft tissue of a mathematical phantom, and the data simulation modeled a full-3D acquisition mode. Reconstructions were performed with the FORE+AWOSEM algorithm. The LROC study measured observer performance with 2D images consisting of either coronal, sagittal, or transverse views of the same set of cases. Versions of the CNPW observer based on two previously published difference-of-Gaussian channel models demonstrated good quantitative agreement with human observers. One interpretation of these results treats the CNPW observer as a channelized Hotelling observer with implicit internal noise

Antineutrino Charged-Current Reactions on Hydrocarbon with Low Momentum Transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gran, R.; Betancourt, M.; Elkins, M.; Rodrigues, P. A.; Akbar, F.; Aliaga, L.; Andrade, D. A.; Bashyal, A.; Bellantoni, L.; Bercellie, A.; Bodek, A.; Bravar, A.; Budd, H.; Vera, G. F. R. Caceres; Cai, T.; Carneiro, M. F.; Coplowe, D.; da Motta, H.; Dytman, S. A.; Díaz, G. A.; Felix, J.; Fields, L.; Fine, R.; Gallagher, H.; Ghosh, A.; Haider, H.; Han, J. Y.; Harris, D. A.; Henry, S.; Jena, D.; Kleykamp, J.; Kordosky, M.; Le, T.; Leistico, J. R.; Lovlein, A.; Lu, X.-G.; Maher, E.; Manly, S.; Mann, W. A.; Marshall, C. M.; McFarland, K. S.; McGowan, A. M.; Messerly, B.; Miller, J.; Mislivec, A.; Morfín, J. G.; Mousseau, J.; Naples, D.; Nelson, J. K.; Nguyen, C.; Norrick, A.; Nuruzzaman, Olivier, A.; Paolone, V.; Patrick, C. E.; Perdue, G. N.; Ramírez, M. A.; Ransome, R. D.; Ray, H.; Ren, L.; Rimal, D.; Ruterbories, D.; Schellman, H.; Salinas, C. J. Solano; Su, H.; Sultana, M.; Falero, S. Sánchez; Valencia, E.; Wolcott, J.; Wospakrik, M.; Yaeggy, B.; Minerva Collaboration

2018-06-01

We report on multinucleon effects in low momentum transfer (<0.8 GeV /c ) antineutrino interactions on plastic (CH) scintillator. These data are from the 2010-2011 antineutrino phase of the MINERvA experiment at Fermilab. The hadronic energy spectrum of this inclusive sample is well described when a screening effect at a low energy transfer and a two-nucleon knockout process are added to a relativistic Fermi gas model of quasielastic, Δ resonance, and higher resonance processes. In this analysis, model elements introduced to describe previously published neutrino results have quantitatively similar benefits for this antineutrino sample. We present the results as a double-differential cross section to accelerate the investigation of alternate models for antineutrino scattering off nuclei.

A thought construction of working perpetuum mobile of the second kind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Čápek, V.; Bok, J.

1999-12-01

The previously published model of the isothermal Maxwell demon as one of models of open quantum systems endowed with the faculty of selforganization is reconstructed here. It describes an open quantum system interacting with a single thermodynamic bath but otherwise not aided from outside. Its activity is given by the standard linear Liouville equation for the system and bath. Owing to its selforganization property, the model then yields cyclic conversion of heat from the bath into mechanical work without compensation. Hence, it provides an explicit thought construction of perpetuum mobile of the second kind, contradicting thus the Thomson formulation of the second law of thermodynamics. No approximation is involved as a special scaling procedure is used which makes the employed kinetic equations exact.

Antineutrino Charged-Current Reactions on Hydrocarbon with Low Momentum Transfer.

PubMed

Gran, R; Betancourt, M; Elkins, M; Rodrigues, P A; Akbar, F; Aliaga, L; Andrade, D A; Bashyal, A; Bellantoni, L; Bercellie, A; Bodek, A; Bravar, A; Budd, H; Vera, G F R Caceres; Cai, T; Carneiro, M F; Coplowe, D; da Motta, H; Dytman, S A; Díaz, G A; Felix, J; Fields, L; Fine, R; Gallagher, H; Ghosh, A; Haider, H; Han, J Y; Harris, D A; Henry, S; Jena, D; Kleykamp, J; Kordosky, M; Le, T; Leistico, J R; Lovlein, A; Lu, X-G; Maher, E; Manly, S; Mann, W A; Marshall, C M; McFarland, K S; McGowan, A M; Messerly, B; Miller, J; Mislivec, A; Morfín, J G; Mousseau, J; Naples, D; Nelson, J K; Nguyen, C; Norrick, A; Nuruzzaman; Olivier, A; Paolone, V; Patrick, C E; Perdue, G N; Ramírez, M A; Ransome, R D; Ray, H; Ren, L; Rimal, D; Ruterbories, D; Schellman, H; Salinas, C J Solano; Su, H; Sultana, M; Falero, S Sánchez; Valencia, E; Wolcott, J; Wospakrik, M; Yaeggy, B

2018-06-01

We report on multinucleon effects in low momentum transfer (<0.8  GeV/c) antineutrino interactions on plastic (CH) scintillator. These data are from the 2010-2011 antineutrino phase of the MINERvA experiment at Fermilab. The hadronic energy spectrum of this inclusive sample is well described when a screening effect at a low energy transfer and a two-nucleon knockout process are added to a relativistic Fermi gas model of quasielastic, Δ resonance, and higher resonance processes. In this analysis, model elements introduced to describe previously published neutrino results have quantitatively similar benefits for this antineutrino sample. We present the results as a double-differential cross section to accelerate the investigation of alternate models for antineutrino scattering off nuclei.

Comparing models of the combined-stimulation advantage for speech recognition.

PubMed

Micheyl, Christophe; Oxenham, Andrew J

2012-05-01

The "combined-stimulation advantage" refers to an improvement in speech recognition when cochlear-implant or vocoded stimulation is supplemented by low-frequency acoustic information. Previous studies have been interpreted as evidence for "super-additive" or "synergistic" effects in the combination of low-frequency and electric or vocoded speech information by human listeners. However, this conclusion was based on predictions of performance obtained using a suboptimal high-threshold model of information combination. The present study shows that a different model, based on Gaussian signal detection theory, can predict surprisingly large combined-stimulation advantages, even when performance with either information source alone is close to chance, without involving any synergistic interaction. A reanalysis of published data using this model reveals that previous results, which have been interpreted as evidence for super-additive effects in perception of combined speech stimuli, are actually consistent with a more parsimonious explanation, according to which the combined-stimulation advantage reflects an optimal combination of two independent sources of information. The present results do not rule out the possible existence of synergistic effects in combined stimulation; however, they emphasize the possibility that the combined-stimulation advantages observed in some studies can be explained simply by non-interactive combination of two information sources.

Measurement and modeling of CO₂ solubility in natural and synthetic formation brines for CO₂ sequestration.

PubMed

Zhao, Haining; Dilmore, Robert; Allen, Douglas E; Hedges, Sheila W; Soong, Yee; Lvov, Serguei N

2015-02-03

CO2 solubility data in the natural formation brine, synthetic formation brine, and synthetic NaCl+CaCl2 brine were collected at the pressures from 100 to 200 bar, temperatures from 323 to 423 K. Experimental results demonstrate that the CO2 solubility in the synthetic formation brines can be reliably represented by that in the synthetic NaCl+CaCl2 brines. We extended our previously developed model (PSUCO2) to calculate CO2 solubility in aqueous mixed-salt solution by using the additivity rule of the Setschenow coefficients of the individual ions (Na(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), K(+), Cl(-), and SO4(2-)). Comparisons with previously published models against the experimental data reveal a clear improvement of the proposed PSUCO2 model. Additionally, the path of the maximum gradient of the CO2 solubility contours divides the P-T diagram into two distinct regions: in Region I, the CO2 solubility in the aqueous phase decreases monotonically in response to increased temperature; in region II, the behavior of the CO2 solubility is the opposite of that in Region I as the temperature increases.

Modelling multiple sources of dissemination bias in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bowden, Jack; Jackson, Dan; Thompson, Simon G

2010-03-30

Asymmetry in the funnel plot for a meta-analysis suggests the presence of dissemination bias. This may be caused by publication bias through the decisions of journal editors, by selective reporting of research results by authors or by a combination of both. Typically, study results that are statistically significant or have larger estimated effect sizes are more likely to appear in the published literature, hence giving a biased picture of the evidence-base. Previous statistical approaches for addressing dissemination bias have assumed only a single selection mechanism. Here we consider a more realistic scenario in which multiple dissemination processes, involving both the publishing authors and journals, are operating. In practical applications, the methods can be used to provide sensitivity analyses for the potential effects of multiple dissemination biases operating in meta-analysis.

Task inhibition, conflict, and the n-2 repetition cost: A combined computational and empirical approach.

PubMed

Sexton, Nicholas J; Cooper, Richard P

2017-05-01

Task inhibition (also known as backward inhibition) is an hypothesised form of cognitive inhibition evident in multi-task situations, with the role of facilitating switching between multiple, competing tasks. This article presents a novel cognitive computational model of a backward inhibition mechanism. By combining aspects of previous cognitive models in task switching and conflict monitoring, the model instantiates the theoretical proposal that backward inhibition is the direct result of conflict between multiple task representations. In a first simulation, we demonstrate that the model produces two effects widely observed in the empirical literature, specifically, reaction time costs for both (n-1) task switches and n-2 task repeats. Through a systematic search of parameter space, we demonstrate that these effects are a general property of the model's theoretical content, and not specific parameter settings. We further demonstrate that the model captures previously reported empirical effects of inter-trial interval on n-2 switch costs. A final simulation extends the paradigm of switching between tasks of asymmetric difficulty to three tasks, and generates novel predictions for n-2 repetition costs. Specifically, the model predicts that n-2 repetition costs associated with hard-easy-hard alternations are greater than for easy-hard-easy alternations. Finally, we report two behavioural experiments testing this hypothesis, with results consistent with the model predictions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PP087. Multicenter external validation and recalibration of a model for preconceptional prediction of recurrent early-onset preeclampsia.

PubMed

van Kuijk, Sander; Delahaije, Denise; Dirksen, Carmen; Scheepers, Hubertina C J; Spaanderman, Marc; Ganzevoort, W; Duvekot, Hans; Oudijk, M A; van Pampus, M G; Dadelszen, Peter von; Peeters, Louis L; Smiths, Luc

2013-04-01

In an earlier paper we reported on the development of a model aimed at the prediction of preeclampsia recurrence, based on variables obtained before the next pregnancy (fasting glucose, BMI, previous birth of a small-for-gestational-age infant, duration of the previous pregnancy, and the presence of hypertension). To externally validate and recalibrate the prediction model for the risk of recurrence of early-onset preeclampsia. We collected data about course and outcome of the next ongoing pregnancy in 229 women with a history of early-onset preeclampsia. Recurrence was defined as preeclampsia requiring delivery before 34 weeks. We computed risk of recurrence and assessed model performance. In addition, we constructed a table comparing sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for different suggested risk-thresholds. Early-onset preeclampsia recurred in 6.6% of women. The model systematically underestimated recurrence risk. The model's discriminative ability was modest, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 58.9% (95% CI: 45.1 - 72.7). Using relevant risk-thresholds, the model created groups that were only moderately different in terms of their average risk of recurrent preeclampsia (Table 1). Compared to an AUC of 65% in the development cohort, the discriminate ability of the model was diminished. It had inadequate performance to classify women into clinically relevant risk groups. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modeling the effects of diagenesis on carbonate clumped-isotope values in deep- and shallow-water settings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolper, Daniel A.; Eiler, John M.; Higgins, John A.

2018-04-01

The measurement of multiply isotopically substituted ('clumped isotope') carbonate groups provides a way to reconstruct past mineral formation temperatures. However, dissolution-reprecipitation (i.e., recrystallization) reactions, which commonly occur during sedimentary burial, can alter a sample's clumped-isotope composition such that it partially or wholly reflects deeper burial temperatures. Here we derive a quantitative model of diagenesis to explore how diagenesis alters carbonate clumped-isotope values. We apply the model to a new dataset from deep-sea sediments taken from Ocean Drilling Project site 807 in the equatorial Pacific. This dataset is used to ground truth the model. We demonstrate that the use of the model with accompanying carbonate clumped-isotope and carbonate δ18O values provides new constraints on both the diagenetic history of deep-sea settings as well as past equatorial sea-surface temperatures. Specifically, the combination of the diagenetic model and data support previous work that indicates equatorial sea-surface temperatures were warmer in the Paleogene as compared to today. We then explore whether the model is applicable to shallow-water settings commonly preserved in the rock record. Using a previously published dataset from the Bahamas, we demonstrate that the model captures the main trends of the data as a function of burial depth and thus appears applicable to a range of depositional settings.

Numerical simulations of compact intracloud discharges as the Relativistic Runaway Electron Avalanche-Extensive Air Shower process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arabshahi, S.; Dwyer, J. R.; Nag, A.; Rakov, V. A.; Rassoul, H. K.

2014-01-01

Compact intracloud discharges (CIDs) are sources of the powerful, often isolated radio pulses emitted by thunderstorms. The VLF-LF radio pulses are called narrow bipolar pulses (NBPs). It is still not clear how CIDs are produced, but two categories of theoretical models that have previously been considered are the Transmission Line (TL) model and the Relativistic Runaway Electron Avalanche-Extensive Air Showers (RREA-EAS) model. In this paper, we perform numerical calculations of RREA-EASs for various electric field configurations inside thunderstorms. The results of these calculations are compared to results from the other models and to the experimental data. Our analysis shows that different theoretical models predict different fundamental characteristics for CIDs. Therefore, many previously published properties of CIDs are highly model dependent. This is because of the fact that measurements of the radiation field usually provide information about the current moment of the source, and different physical models with different discharge currents could have the same current moment. We have also found that although the RREA-EAS model could explain the current moments of CIDs, the required electric fields in the thundercloud are rather large and may not be realistic. Furthermore, the production of NBPs from RREA-EAS requires very energetic primary cosmic ray particles, not observed in nature. If such ultrahigh-energy particles were responsible for NBPs, then they should be far less frequent than is actually observed.

New 1982-1990 photometry of Lambda Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Douglas S.; Henry, Gregory W.; Boehme, Dietmar; Brooks, Peter A.; Chang, Sandy; Dolzan, Ales; Fortier, George L.; Fried, Robert E.; Genet, Russell M.; Grim, Bruce S.

1991-01-01

The paper presents photoelectric photometry of Lambda And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then it is combined with all other photometry available (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0.15 m and a period of 11.4 +/- 0.4 years. Because most of the new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-1984 observing season, this one well-defined light curve is analyzed with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0.04 m amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0.09 m down almost to 0.03 m. The spot rotation periods were 55.9 d +/- 0.6 d and 52.8 d +/- 1.0 d, respectively.

Monostatic lidar in weak-to-strong turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, L. C.; Phillips, R. L.

2001-07-01

A heuristic scintillation model previously developed for weak-to-strong irradiance fluctuations of a spherical wave is extended in this paper to the case of a monostatic lidar configuration. As in the previous model, we account for the loss of spatial coherence as the optical wave propagates through atmospheric turbulence by eliminating the effects of certain turbulent scale sizes that exist between the scale size of the spatial coherence radius of the beam and that of the scattering disc. These mid-range scale-size effects are eliminated through the formal introduction of spatial scale frequency filters that continually adjust spatial cut-off frequencies as the optical wave propagates. In addition, we also account for correlations that exist in the incident wave to the target and the echo wave from the target arising from double-pass propagation through the same random inhomogeneities of the atmosphere. We separately consider the case of a point target and a diffuse target, concentrating on both the enhanced backscatter effect in the mean irradiance and the increase in scintillation in a monostatic channel. Under weak and strong irradiance fluctuations our asymptotic expressions are in agreement with previously published asymptotic results.

Correlation, evaluation, and extension of linearized theories for tire motion and wheel shimmy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smiley, Robert F

1957-01-01

An evaluation is made of the existing theories of a linearized tire motion and wheel shimmy. It is demonstrated that most of the previously published theories represent varying degrees of approximation to a summary theory developed in this report which is a minor modification of the basic theory of Von Schlippe and Dietrich. In most cases where strong differences exist between the previously published theories and summary theory, the previously published theories are shown to possess certain deficiencies. A series of systematic approximations to the summary theory is developed for the treatment of problems too simple to merit the use of the complete summary theory, and procedures are discussed for applying the summary theory and its systematic approximations to the shimmy of more complex landing-gear structures than have previously been considered. Comparisons of the existing experimental data with the predictions of the summary theory and the systematic approximations provide a fair substantiation of the more detailed approximate theories.

A comparative evaluation of risk-adjustment models for benchmarking amputation-free survival after lower extremity bypass.

PubMed

Simons, Jessica P; Goodney, Philip P; Flahive, Julie; Hoel, Andrew W; Hallett, John W; Kraiss, Larry W; Schanzer, Andres

2016-04-01

Providing patients and payers with publicly reported risk-adjusted quality metrics for the purpose of benchmarking physicians and institutions has become a national priority. Several prediction models have been developed to estimate outcomes after lower extremity revascularization for critical limb ischemia, but the optimal model to use in contemporary practice has not been defined. We sought to identify the highest-performing risk-adjustment model for amputation-free survival (AFS) at 1 year after lower extremity bypass (LEB). We used the national Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database (2003-2012) to assess the performance of three previously validated risk-adjustment models for AFS. The Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL), Finland National Vascular (FINNVASC) registry, and the modified Project of Ex-vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT III [mPIII]) risk scores were applied to the VQI cohort. A novel model for 1-year AFS was also derived using the VQI data set and externally validated using the PIII data set. The relative discrimination (Harrell c-index) and calibration (Hosmer-May goodness-of-fit test) of each model were compared. Among 7754 patients in the VQI who underwent LEB for critical limb ischemia, the AFS was 74% at 1 year. Each of the previously published models for AFS demonstrated similar discriminative performance: c-indices for BASIL, FINNVASC, mPIII were 0.66, 0.60, and 0.64, respectively. The novel VQI-derived model had improved discriminative ability with a c-index of 0.71 and appropriate generalizability on external validation with a c-index of 0.68. The model was well calibrated in both the VQI and PIII data sets (goodness of fit P = not significant). Currently available prediction models for AFS after LEB perform modestly when applied to national contemporary VQI data. Moreover, the performance of each model was inferior to that of the novel VQI-derived model. Because the importance of risk-adjusted outcome reporting continues to increase, national registries such as VQI should begin using this novel model for benchmarking quality of care. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stratiform chromite deposit model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schulte, Ruth F.; Taylor, Ryan D.; Piatak, Nadine M.; Seal, Robert R.

2010-01-01

Stratiform chromite deposits are of great economic importance, yet their origin and evolution remain highly debated. Layered igneous intrusions such as the Bushveld, Great Dyke, Kemi, and Stillwater Complexes, provide opportunities for studying magmatic differentiation processes and assimilation within the crust, as well as related ore-deposit formation. Chromite-rich seams within layered intrusions host the majority of the world's chromium reserves and may contain significant platinum-group-element (PGE) mineralization. This model of stratiform chromite deposits is part of an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey's Mineral Resources Program to update existing models and develop new descriptive mineral deposit models to supplement previously published models for use in mineral-resource and mineral-environmental assessments. The model focuses on features that may be common to all stratiform chromite deposits as a way to gain insight into the processes that gave rise to their emplacement and to the significant economic resources contained in them.

Theoretical results on the tandem junction solar cell based on its Ebers-Moll transistor model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goradia, C.; Vaughn, J.; Baraona, C. R.

1980-01-01

A one-dimensional theoretical model of the tandem junction solar cell (TJC) with base resistivity greater than about 1 ohm-cm and under low level injection has been derived. This model extends a previously published conceptual model which treats the TJC as an npn transistor. The model gives theoretical expressions for each of the Ebers-Moll type currents of the illuminated TJC and allows for the calculation of the spectral response, I(sc), V(oc), FF and eta under variation of one or more of the geometrical and material parameters and 1MeV electron fluence. Results of computer calculations based on this model are presented and discussed. These results indicate that for space applications, both a high beginning of life efficiency, greater than 15% AM0, and a high radiation tolerance can be achieved only with thin (less than 50 microns) TJC's with high base resistivity (greater than 10 ohm-cm).

Optimal healthcare decision making under multiple mathematical models: application in prostate cancer screening.

PubMed

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Silberholz, John; Trikalinos, Thomas

2018-03-01

Important decisions related to human health, such as screening strategies for cancer, need to be made without a satisfactory understanding of the underlying biological and other processes. Rather, they are often informed by mathematical models that approximate reality. Often multiple models have been made to study the same phenomenon, which may lead to conflicting decisions. It is natural to seek a decision making process that identifies decisions that all models find to be effective, and we propose such a framework in this work. We apply the framework in prostate cancer screening to identify prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based strategies that perform well under all considered models. We use heuristic search to identify strategies that trade off between optimizing the average across all models' assessments and being "conservative" by optimizing the most pessimistic model assessment. We identified three recently published mathematical models that can estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of PSA-based screening strategies and identified 64 strategies that trade off between maximizing the average and the most pessimistic model assessments. All prescribe PSA thresholds that increase with age, and 57 involve biennial screening. Strategies with higher assessments with the pessimistic model start screening later, stop screening earlier, and use higher PSA thresholds at earlier ages. The 64 strategies outperform 22 previously published expert-generated strategies. The 41 most "conservative" ones remained better than no screening with all models in extensive sensitivity analyses. We augment current comparative modeling approaches by identifying strategies that perform well under all models, for various degrees of decision makers' conservativeness.

Development and validation of age-dependent FE human models of a mid-sized male thorax.

PubMed

El-Jawahri, Raed E; Laituri, Tony R; Ruan, Jesse S; Rouhana, Stephen W; Barbat, Saeed D

2010-11-01

The increasing number of people over 65 years old (YO) is an important research topic in the area of impact biomechanics, and finite element (FE) modeling can provide valuable support for related research. There were three objectives of this study: (1) Estimation of the representative age of the previously-documented Ford Human Body Model (FHBM) -- an FE model which approximates the geometry and mass of a mid-sized male, (2) Development of FE models representing two additional ages, and (3) Validation of the resulting three models to the extent possible with respect to available physical tests. Specifically, the geometry of the model was compared to published data relating rib angles to age, and the mechanical properties of different simulated tissues were compared to a number of published aging functions. The FHBM was determined to represent a 53-59 YO mid-sized male. The aforementioned aging functions were used to develop FE models representing two additional ages: 35 and 75 YO. The rib model was validated against human rib specimens and whole rib tests, under different loading conditions, with and without modeled fracture. In addition, the resulting three age-dependent models were validated by simulating cadaveric tests of blunt and sled impacts. The responses of the models, in general, were within the cadaveric response corridors. When compared to peak responses from individual cadavers similar in size and age to the age-dependent models, some responses were within one standard deviation of the test data. All the other responses, but one, were within two standard deviations.

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Y0 WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 and the Y1 WISE J035000.32-565830.2: the Importance of Non-Equilibrium Chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leggett, S. K.; Tremblin, P.; Saumon, D.; Marley, M. S.; Morley, Caroline V.; Amundsen, D. S.; Baraffe, I.; Chabrier, G.

2016-01-01

We present new near-infrared spectra, obtained at Gemini Observatory, for two Y dwarfs: WISE J035000.32-565830.2 (W0350) and WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 (W1738). A FLAMINGOS-2 R = 540 spectrum was obtained for W0350, covering 1.0 < ? micrometer < 1.7, and a cross-dispersed GNIRS R = 2800 spectrum was obtained for W1738, covering 0.993 - 1.087 micrometer, 1.191 - 1.305 micrometer, 1.589 - 1.631 micrometer, and 1.985 - 2.175 micrometer, in four orders. We also present revised Y JH photometry for W1738, using new NIRI Y and J imaging, and a re-analysis of the previously published NIRI H band images. We compare these data, together with previously published data for late-T and Y dwarfs, to cloud-free models of solar metallicity, calculated both in chemical equilibrium and with disequilibrium driven by vertical transport. We find that for the Y dwarfs the non-equilibrium models reproduce the near-infrared data better than the equilibrium models. The remaining discrepancies suggest that fine-tuning the CH4/CO and NH3/N2 balance is needed. Improved trigonometric parallaxes would improve the analysis. Despite the uncertainties and discrepancies, the models reproduce the observed near-infrared spectra well. We find that for the Y0, W1738, T(sub eff) = 425 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25, and for the Y1, W0350, T(sub eff) = 350 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25. W1738 may be metal-rich. Based on evolutionary models, these temperatures and gravities correspond to a mass range for both Y dwarfs of 3 - 9 Jupiter masses, with W0350 being a cooler, slightly older, version of W1738; the age of W0350 is 0.3 - 3 Gyr, and the age of W1738 is 0.15 - 1 Gyr.

ISC-GEM: Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009), III. Re-computed MS and mb, proxy MW, final magnitude composition and completeness assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Bondár, István; Storchak, Dmitry A.; Engdahl, E. Robert; Bormann, Peter; Harris, James

2015-02-01

This paper outlines the re-computation and compilation of the magnitudes now contained in the final ISC-GEM Reference Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009). The catalogue is available via the ISC website (http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/). The available re-computed MS and mb provided an ideal basis for deriving new conversion relationships to moment magnitude MW. Therefore, rather than using previously published regression models, we derived new empirical relationships using both generalized orthogonal linear and exponential non-linear models to obtain MW proxies from MS and mb. The new models were tested against true values of MW, and the newly derived exponential models were then preferred to the linear ones in computing MW proxies. For the final magnitude composition of the ISC-GEM catalogue, we preferred directly measured MW values as published by the Global CMT project for the period 1976-2009 (plus intermediate-depth earthquakes between 1962 and 1975). In addition, over 1000 publications have been examined to obtain direct seismic moment M0 and, therefore, also MW estimates for 967 large earthquakes during 1900-1978 (Lee and Engdahl, 2015) by various alternative methods to the current GCMT procedure. In all other instances we computed MW proxy values by converting our re-computed MS and mb values into MW, using the newly derived non-linear regression models. The final magnitude composition is an improvement in terms of magnitude homogeneity compared to previous catalogues. The magnitude completeness is not homogeneous over the 110 years covered by the ISC-GEM catalogue. Therefore, seismicity rate estimates may be strongly affected without a careful time window selection. In particular, the ISC-GEM catalogue appears to be complete down to MW 5.6 starting from 1964, whereas for the early instrumental period the completeness varies from ∼7.5 to 6.2. Further time and resources would be necessary to homogenize the magnitude of completeness over the entire catalogue length.

Heterogeneity of human adipose blood flow

PubMed Central

Levitt, David G

2007-01-01

Background The long time pharmacokinetics of highly lipid soluble compounds is dominated by blood-adipose tissue exchange and depends on the magnitude and heterogeneity of adipose blood flow. Because the adipose tissue is an infinite sink at short times (hours), the kinetics must be followed for days in order to determine if the adipose perfusion is heterogeneous. The purpose of this paper is to quantitate human adipose blood flow heterogeneity and determine its importance for human pharmacokinetics. Methods The heterogeneity was determined using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK) to describe the 6 day volatile anesthetic data previously published by Yasuda et. al. The analysis uses the freely available software PKQuest and incorporates perfusion-ventilation mismatch and time dependent parameters that varied from the anesthetized to the ambulatory period. This heterogeneous adipose perfusion PBPK model was then tested by applying it to the previously published cannabidiol data of Ohlsson et. al. and the cannabinol data of Johansson et. al. Results The volatile anesthetic kinetics at early times have only a weak dependence on adipose blood flow while at long times the pharmacokinetics are dominated by the adipose flow and are independent of muscle blood flow. At least 2 adipose compartments with different perfusion rates (0.074 and 0.014 l/kg/min) were needed to describe the anesthetic data. This heterogeneous adipose PBPK model also provided a good fit to the cannabinol data. Conclusion Human adipose blood flow is markedly heterogeneous, varying by at least 5 fold. This heterogeneity significantly influences the long time pharmacokinetics of the volatile anesthetics and tetrahydrocannabinol. In contrast, using this same PBPK model it can be shown that the long time pharmacokinetics of the persistent lipophilic compounds (dioxins, PCBs) do not depend on adipose blood flow. The ability of the same PBPK model to describe both the anesthetic and cannabinol kinetics provides direct qualitative evidence that their kinetics are flow limited and that there is no significant adipose tissue diffusion limitation. PMID:17239252

A PBPK Model to Predict Disposition of CYP3A-Metabolized Drugs in Pregnant Women: Verification and Discerning the Site of CYP3A Induction.

PubMed

Ke, A B; Nallani, S C; Zhao, P; Rostami-Hodjegan, A; Unadkat, J D

2012-09-26

Besides logistical and ethical concerns, evaluation of safety and efficacy of medications in pregnant women is complicated by marked changes in pharmacokinetics (PK) of drugs. For example, CYP3A activity is induced during the third trimester (T3). We explored whether a previously published physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model could quantitatively predict PK profiles of CYP3A-metabolized drugs during T3, and discern the site of CYP3A induction (i.e., liver, intestine, or both). The model accounted for gestational age-dependent changes in maternal physiological function and hepatic CYP3A activity. For model verification, mean plasma area under the curve (AUC), peak plasma concentration (Cmax), and trough plasma concentration (Cmin) of midazolam (MDZ), nifedipine (NIF), and indinavir (IDV) were predicted and compared with published studies. The PBPK model successfully predicted MDZ, NIF, and IDV disposition during T3. A sensitivity analysis suggested that CYP3A induction in T3 is most likely hepatic and not intestinal. Our PBPK model is a useful tool to evaluate different dosing regimens during T3 for drugs cleared primarily via CYP3A metabolism.CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (2012) 1, e3; doi:10.1038/psp.2012.2; advance online publication 26 September 2012.

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling of the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle for AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Seiel, Jonathan

2016-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling for the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle: AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph; Seidel, Jonathan

2014-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.propulsion system dynamics, the structural dynamics, and aerodynamics.

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling of the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle for AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Seidel, Jonathan

2014-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the lowboom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.

Evaluation of a Mathematical Model of Rat Body Weight Regulation in Application to Caloric Restriction and Drug Treatment Studies.

PubMed

Selimkhanov, Jangir; Thompson, W Clayton; Patterson, Terrell A; Hadcock, John R; Scott, Dennis O; Maurer, Tristan S; Musante, Cynthia J

2016-01-01

The purpose of this work is to develop a mathematical model of energy balance and body weight regulation that can predict species-specific response to common pre-clinical interventions. To this end, we evaluate the ability of a previously published mathematical model of mouse metabolism to describe changes in body weight and body composition in rats in response to two short-term interventions. First, we adapt the model to describe body weight and composition changes in Sprague-Dawley rats by fitting to data previously collected from a 26-day caloric restriction study. The calibrated model is subsequently used to describe changes in rat body weight and composition in a 23-day cannabinoid receptor 1 antagonist (CB1Ra) study. While the model describes body weight data well, it fails to replicate body composition changes with CB1Ra treatment. Evaluation of a key model assumption about deposition of fat and fat-free masses shows a limitation of the model in short-term studies due to the constraint placed on the relative change in body composition components. We demonstrate that the model can be modified to overcome this limitation, and propose additional measurements to further test the proposed model predictions. These findings illustrate how mathematical models can be used to support drug discovery and development by identifying key knowledge gaps and aiding in the design of additional experiments to further our understanding of disease-relevant and species-specific physiology.

Evaluation of a Mathematical Model of Rat Body Weight Regulation in Application to Caloric Restriction and Drug Treatment Studies

PubMed Central

Selimkhanov, Jangir; Patterson, Terrell A.; Scott, Dennis O.; Maurer, Tristan S.; Musante, Cynthia J.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this work is to develop a mathematical model of energy balance and body weight regulation that can predict species-specific response to common pre-clinical interventions. To this end, we evaluate the ability of a previously published mathematical model of mouse metabolism to describe changes in body weight and body composition in rats in response to two short-term interventions. First, we adapt the model to describe body weight and composition changes in Sprague-Dawley rats by fitting to data previously collected from a 26-day caloric restriction study. The calibrated model is subsequently used to describe changes in rat body weight and composition in a 23-day cannabinoid receptor 1 antagonist (CB1Ra) study. While the model describes body weight data well, it fails to replicate body composition changes with CB1Ra treatment. Evaluation of a key model assumption about deposition of fat and fat-free masses shows a limitation of the model in short-term studies due to the constraint placed on the relative change in body composition components. We demonstrate that the model can be modified to overcome this limitation, and propose additional measurements to further test the proposed model predictions. These findings illustrate how mathematical models can be used to support drug discovery and development by identifying key knowledge gaps and aiding in the design of additional experiments to further our understanding of disease-relevant and species-specific physiology. PMID:27227543

[Three dimensional finite element model of a modified posterior cervical single open-door laminoplasty].

PubMed

Wang, Q; Yang, Y; Fei, Q; Li, D; Li, J J; Meng, H; Su, N; Fan, Z H; Wang, B Q

2017-06-06

Objective: To build a three-dimensional finite element models of a modified posterior cervical single open-door laminoplasty with short-segmental lateral mass screws fusion. Methods: The C(2)-C(7) segmental data were obtained from computed tomography (CT) scans of a male patient with cervical spondylotic myelopathy and spinal stenosis.Three-dimensional finite element models of a modified cervical single open-door laminoplasty (before and after surgery) were constructed by the combination of software package MIMICS, Geomagic and ABAQUS.The models were composed of bony vertebrae, articulating facets, intervertebral disc and associated ligaments.The loads of moments 1.5Nm at different directions (flexion, extension, lateral bending and axial rotation)were applied at preoperative model to calculate intersegmental ranges of motion.The results were compared with the previous studies to verify the validation of the models. Results: Three-dimensional finite element models of the modified cervical single open- door laminoplasty had 102258 elements (preoperative model) and 161 892 elements (postoperative model) respectively, including C(2-7) six bony vertebraes, C(2-3)-C(6-7) five intervertebral disc, main ligaments and lateral mass screws.The intersegmental responses at the preoperative model under the loads of moments 1.5 Nm at different directions were similar to the previous published data. Conclusion: Three-dimensional finite element models of the modified cervical single open- door laminoplasty were successfully established and had a good biological fidelity, which can be used for further study.

Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.

PubMed

Mills, J A N; Kebreab, E; Yates, C M; Crompton, L A; Cammell, S B; Dhanoa, M S; Agnew, R E; France, J

2003-12-01

Previous attempts to apply statistical models, which correlate nutrient intake with methane production, have been of limited value where predictions are obtained for nutrient intakes and diet types outside those used in model construction. Dynamic mechanistic models have proved more suitable for extrapolation, but they remain computationally expensive and are not applied easily in practical situations. The first objective of this research focused on employing conventional techniques to generate statistical models of methane production appropriate to United Kingdom dairy systems. The second objective was to evaluate these models and a model published previously using both United Kingdom and North American data sets. Thirdly, nonlinear models were considered as alternatives to the conventional linear regressions. The United Kingdom calorimetry data used to construct the linear models also were used to develop the three nonlinear alternatives that were all of modified Mitscherlich (monomolecular) form. Of the linear models tested, an equation from the literature proved most reliable across the full range of evaluation data (root mean square prediction error = 21.3%). However, the Mitscherlich models demonstrated the greatest degree of adaptability across diet types and intake level. The most successful model for simulating the independent data was a modified Mitscherlich equation with the steepness parameter set to represent dietary starch-to-ADF ratio (root mean square prediction error = 20.6%). However, when such data were unavailable, simpler Mitscherlich forms relating dry matter or metabolizable energy intake to methane production remained better alternatives relative to their linear counterparts.

Two-dimensional magnetotelluric inversion using reflection seismic data as constraints and application in the COSC project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Ping; Kalscheuer, Thomas; Hedin, Peter; Garcia Juanatey, Maria A.

2017-04-01

We present a novel 2-D magnetotelluric (MT) inversion scheme, in which the local weights of the regularizing smoothness constraints are based on the envelope attribute of a reflection seismic image. The weights resemble those of a previously published seismic modification of the minimum gradient support method. We measure the directional gradients of the seismic envelope to modify the horizontal and vertical smoothness constraints separately. Successful application of the inversion to MT field data of the Collisional Orogeny in the Scandinavian Caledonides (COSC) project using the envelope attribute of the COSC reflection seismic profile helped to reduce the uncertainty of the interpretation of the main décollement by demonstrating that the associated alum shales may be much thinner than suggested by a previous inversion model. Thus, the new model supports the proposed location of a future borehole COSC-2 which is hoped to penetrate the main décollement and the underlying Precambrian basement.

Customizing laboratory mice by modifying gut microbiota and host immunity in an early "window of opportunity".

PubMed

Hansen, Camilla H F; Metzdorff, Stine B; Hansen, Axel K

2013-01-01

We recently investigated how post-natal microbial gut colonization is important for the development of the immune system, especially in the systemic compartments. This addendum presents additional data which in accordance with our previous findings show that early life microbial colonization is critical for a fine-tuned immune homeostasis to develop also in the intestinal environment. A generalized reduction in the expression of immune signaling related genes in the small intestine may explain previously shown increased systemic adaptive immune reactivity, if the regulatory cross-talk between intra- and extra-intestinal immune cells is immature following a neonatal germ-free period. These findings are furthermore discussed in the context of recently published results on how lack of microbial exposure in the neonatal life modifies disease expression in rodents used as models mimicking human inflammatory diseases. In particular, with a focus on how these interesting findings could be used to optimize the use of rodent models.

A comparison of infrared, radar, and geologic mapping of lunar craters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, T.W.; Masursky, H.; Shorthill, R.W.; Tyler, G.L.; Zisk, S.H.

1974-01-01

Between 1000 and 2000 infrared (eclipse) and radar anomalies have been mapped on the nearside hemisphere of the Moon. A study of 52 of these anomalies indicates that most are related to impact craters and that the nature of the infrared and radar responses is compatible with a previously developed geologic model of crater aging processes. The youngest craters are pronounced thermal and radar anomalies; that is, they have enhanced eclipse temperatures and are strong radar scatterers. With increasing crater age, the associated thermal and radar responses become progressively less noticeable until they assume values for the average lunar surface. The last type of anomaly to disappear is radar enhancement at longer wavelengths. A few craters, however, have infrared and radar behaviors not predicted by the aging model. One previously unknown feature - a field strewn with centimeter-sized rock fragments - has been identified by this technique of comparing maps at the infrared, radar, and visual wavelengths. ?? 1974 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht-Holland.

Comparison of the thermal stabilization of proteins by oligosaccharides and monosaccharide mixtures: Measurement and analysis in the context of excluded volume theory.

PubMed

Beg, Ilyas; Minton, Allen P; Islam, Asimul; Hassan, Md Imtaiyaz; Ahmad, Faizan

2018-06-01

The thermal stability of apo α-lactalbumin (α-LA) and lysozyme was measured in the presence of mixtures of glucose, fructose, and galactose. Mixtures of these monosaccharides in the appropriate stoichiometric ratio were found to have a greater stabilizing effect on each of the two proteins than equal weight/volume concentrations of di- tri- and tetrasaccharides with identical subunit composition (sucrose, trehalose, raffinose, and stachyose). The excluded volume model for the effect of a single saccharide on the stability of a protein previously proposed by Beg et al. [Biochemistry 54 (2015) 3594] was extended to treat the case of saccharide mixtures. The extended model predicts quantitatively the stabilizing effect of all monosaccharide mixtures on α-LA and lysozyme reported here, as well as previously published results obtained for ribonuclease A [Biophys. Chem. 138 (2008) 120] to within experimental uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A test method for determining adhesion forces and Hamaker constants of cementitious materials using atomic force microscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lomboy, Gilson; Sundararajan, Sriram, E-mail: srirams@iastate.edu; Wang Kejin

2011-11-15

A method for determining Hamaker constant of cementitious materials is presented. The method involved sample preparation, measurement of adhesion force between the tested material and a silicon nitride probe using atomic force microscopy in dry air and in water, and calculating the Hamaker constant using appropriate contact mechanics models. The work of adhesion and Hamaker constant were computed from the pull-off forces using the Johnson-Kendall-Roberts and Derjagin-Muller-Toropov models. Reference materials with known Hamaker constants (mica, silica, calcite) and commercially available cementitious materials (Portland cement (PC), ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS)) were studied. The Hamaker constants of the reference materialsmore » obtained are consistent with those published by previous researchers. The results indicate that PC has a higher Hamaker constant than GGBFS. The Hamaker constant of PC in water is close to the previously predicted value C{sub 3}S, which is attributed to short hydration time ({<=} 45 min) used in this study.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

M. A. Wasiolek

The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the referencemore » biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).« less

Multivariate Statistical Models for Predicting Sediment Yields from Southern California Watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gartner, Joseph E.; Cannon, Susan H.; Helsel, Dennis R.; Bandurraga, Mark

2009-01-01

Debris-retention basins in Southern California are frequently used to protect communities and infrastructure from the hazards of flooding and debris flow. Empirical models that predict sediment yields are used to determine the size of the basins. Such models have been developed using analyses of records of the amount of material removed from debris retention basins, associated rainfall amounts, measures of watershed characteristics, and wildfire extent and history. In this study we used multiple linear regression methods to develop two updated empirical models to predict sediment yields for watersheds located in Southern California. The models are based on both new and existing measures of volume of sediment removed from debris retention basins, measures of watershed morphology, and characterization of burn severity distributions for watersheds located in Ventura, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino Counties. The first model presented reflects conditions in watersheds located throughout the Transverse Ranges of Southern California and is based on volumes of sediment measured following single storm events with known rainfall conditions. The second model presented is specific to conditions in Ventura County watersheds and was developed using volumes of sediment measured following multiple storm events. To relate sediment volumes to triggering storm rainfall, a rainfall threshold was developed to identify storms likely to have caused sediment deposition. A measured volume of sediment deposited by numerous storms was parsed among the threshold-exceeding storms based on relative storm rainfall totals. The predictive strength of the two models developed here, and of previously-published models, was evaluated using a test dataset consisting of 65 volumes of sediment yields measured in Southern California. The evaluation indicated that the model developed using information from single storm events in the Transverse Ranges best predicted sediment yields for watersheds in San Bernardino, Los Angeles, and Ventura Counties. This model predicts sediment yield as a function of the peak 1-hour rainfall, the watershed area burned by the most recent fire (at all severities), the time since the most recent fire, watershed area, average gradient, and relief ratio. The model that reflects conditions specific to Ventura County watersheds consistently under-predicted sediment yields and is not recommended for application. Some previously-published models performed reasonably well, while others either under-predicted sediment yields or had a larger range of errors in the predicted sediment yields.

PCM-SABRE: a platform for benchmarking and comparing outcome prediction methods in precision cancer medicine.

PubMed

Eyal-Altman, Noah; Last, Mark; Rubin, Eitan

2017-01-17

Numerous publications attempt to predict cancer survival outcome from gene expression data using machine-learning methods. A direct comparison of these works is challenging for the following reasons: (1) inconsistent measures used to evaluate the performance of different models, and (2) incomplete specification of critical stages in the process of knowledge discovery. There is a need for a platform that would allow researchers to replicate previous works and to test the impact of changes in the knowledge discovery process on the accuracy of the induced models. We developed the PCM-SABRE platform, which supports the entire knowledge discovery process for cancer outcome analysis. PCM-SABRE was developed using KNIME. By using PCM-SABRE to reproduce the results of previously published works on breast cancer survival, we define a baseline for evaluating future attempts to predict cancer outcome with machine learning. We used PCM-SABRE to replicate previous work that describe predictive models of breast cancer recurrence, and tested the performance of all possible combinations of feature selection methods and data mining algorithms that was used in either of the works. We reconstructed the work of Chou et al. observing similar trends - superior performance of Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms and inconclusive impact of feature pre-selection with the decision tree algorithm on subsequent analysis. PCM-SABRE is a software tool that provides an intuitive environment for rapid development of predictive models in cancer precision medicine.

Recent Developments in Toxico-Cheminformatics: A New ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Efforts to improve public access to chemical toxicity information resources, coupled with new high-throughput screening (HTS) data and efforts to systematize legacy toxicity studies, have the potential to significantly improve predictive capabilities in toxicology. Important recent developments include: 1) large and growing public resources that link chemical structures to biological activity and toxicity data in searchable format, and that offer more nuanced and varied representations of activity; 2) standardized relational data models that capture relevant details of chemical treatment and effects of published in vivo experiments; and 3) the generation of large amounts of new data from public efforts that are employing HTS technologies to probe a wide range of bioactivity and cellular processes across large swaths of chemical space. Most recently, EPA’s DSSTox project has published several new EPA chemical data inventories (IRIS, HPV, ToxCast) and added an on-line capability for structure (substructure or similarity)-searching through all or parts of the published DSSTox data files. These efforts are, for the first time in many cases, opening up a structure-paved two-way highway between previously inaccessible or isolated public chemical data repositories and large public resources, such as PubChem. In addition, public initiatives (such as ToxML) are developing systematized data models of toxicity study areas, and introducing standardized templates, contr

Testing the Interstellar Wind Helium Flow Direction with Galileo Euvs Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pryor, W. R.; Simmons, K. E.; Ajello, J. M.; Tobiska, W. K.; Retherford, K. D.; Stern, S. A.; Feldman, P. D.; Frisch, P. C.; Bzowski, M.; Grava, C.

2014-12-01

Forty years of measurements of the flow of interstellar helium through the heliosphere suggest that variations of the flow direction with time are possible. We will model Galileo Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer (EUVS) data to determine the best-fitting flow direction and compare it to values obtained by other spacecraft. The Galileo EUVS (Hord et al., 1992) was mounted on the spinning part of the spacecraft and obtained interstellar wind hydrogen Lyman-alpha 121.6 nm and helium 58.4 nm data on great circles passing near the ecliptic poles during the interplanetary cruise phase of the mission and also during the Jupiter orbital phase of the mission. The Galileo hydrogen cruise data have been previously published (Hord et al., 1991, Pryor et al., 1992; 1996; 2001), but the helium data have not. Our model was previously used by Ajello et al., 1978, 1979 to model Mariner 10 interstellar wind helium data, and by Stern et al., 2012 and Feldman et al., 2012 to model the interplanetary helium background near the moon in Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Lyman-alpha Mapping Project (LAMP) data. The model has been updated to include recent determinations of daily helium 58.4 nm solar flux variations and helium losses due to EUV photoionization and electron impact ionization.

The use of genetic programming to develop a predictor of swash excursion on sandy beaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passarella, Marinella; Goldstein, Evan B.; De Muro, Sandro; Coco, Giovanni

2018-02-01

We use genetic programming (GP), a type of machine learning (ML) approach, to predict the total and infragravity swash excursion using previously published data sets that have been used extensively in swash prediction studies. Three previously published works with a range of new conditions are added to this data set to extend the range of measured swash conditions. Using this newly compiled data set we demonstrate that a ML approach can reduce the prediction errors compared to well-established parameterizations and therefore it may improve coastal hazards assessment (e.g. coastal inundation). Predictors obtained using GP can also be physically sound and replicate the functionality and dependencies of previous published formulas. Overall, we show that ML techniques are capable of both improving predictability (compared to classical regression approaches) and providing physical insight into coastal processes.

Reverse engineering of logic-based differential equation models using a mixed-integer dynamic optimization approach.

PubMed

Henriques, David; Rocha, Miguel; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Banga, Julio R

2015-09-15

Systems biology models can be used to test new hypotheses formulated on the basis of previous knowledge or new experimental data, contradictory with a previously existing model. New hypotheses often come in the shape of a set of possible regulatory mechanisms. This search is usually not limited to finding a single regulation link, but rather a combination of links subject to great uncertainty or no information about the kinetic parameters. In this work, we combine a logic-based formalism, to describe all the possible regulatory structures for a given dynamic model of a pathway, with mixed-integer dynamic optimization (MIDO). This framework aims to simultaneously identify the regulatory structure (represented by binary parameters) and the real-valued parameters that are consistent with the available experimental data, resulting in a logic-based differential equation model. The alternative to this would be to perform real-valued parameter estimation for each possible model structure, which is not tractable for models of the size presented in this work. The performance of the method presented here is illustrated with several case studies: a synthetic pathway problem of signaling regulation, a two-component signal transduction pathway in bacterial homeostasis, and a signaling network in liver cancer cells. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. julio@iim.csic.es or saezrodriguez@ebi.ac.uk. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Modeling As(III) oxidation and removal with iron electrocoagulation in groundwater.

PubMed

Li, Lei; van Genuchten, Case M; Addy, Susan E A; Yao, Juanjuan; Gao, Naiyun; Gadgil, Ashok J

2012-11-06

Understanding the chemical kinetics of arsenic during electrocoagulation (EC) treatment is essential for a deeper understanding of arsenic removal using EC under a variety of operating conditions and solution compositions. We describe a highly constrained, simple chemical dynamic model of As(III) oxidation and As(III,V), Si, and P sorption for the EC system using model parameters extracted from some of our experimental results and previous studies. Our model predictions agree well with both data extracted from previous studies and our observed experimental data over a broad range of operating conditions (charge dosage rate) and solution chemistry (pH, co-occurring ions) without free model parameters. Our model provides insights into why higher pH and lower charge dosage rate (Coulombs/L/min) facilitate As(III) removal by EC and sheds light on the debate in the recent published literature regarding the mechanism of As(III) oxidation during EC. Our model also provides practically useful estimates of the minimum amount of iron required to remove 500 μg/L As(III) to <50 μg/L. Parameters measured in this work include the ratio of rate constants for Fe(II) and As(III) reactions with Fe(IV) in synthetic groundwater (k(1)/k(2) = 1.07) and the apparent rate constant of Fe(II) oxidation with dissolved oxygen at pH 7 (k(app) = 10(0.22) M(-1)s(-1)).

Assessment of source-specific health effects associated with an unknown number of major sources of multiple air pollutants: a unified Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Park, Eun Sug; Hopke, Philip K; Oh, Man-Suk; Symanski, Elaine; Han, Daikwon; Spiegelman, Clifford H

2014-07-01

There has been increasing interest in assessing health effects associated with multiple air pollutants emitted by specific sources. A major difficulty with achieving this goal is that the pollution source profiles are unknown and source-specific exposures cannot be measured directly; rather, they need to be estimated by decomposing ambient measurements of multiple air pollutants. This estimation process, called multivariate receptor modeling, is challenging because of the unknown number of sources and unknown identifiability conditions (model uncertainty). The uncertainty in source-specific exposures (source contributions) as well as uncertainty in the number of major pollution sources and identifiability conditions have been largely ignored in previous studies. A multipollutant approach that can deal with model uncertainty in multivariate receptor models while simultaneously accounting for parameter uncertainty in estimated source-specific exposures in assessment of source-specific health effects is presented in this paper. The methods are applied to daily ambient air measurements of the chemical composition of fine particulate matter ([Formula: see text]), weather data, and counts of cardiovascular deaths from 1995 to 1997 for Phoenix, AZ, USA. Our approach for evaluating source-specific health effects yields not only estimates of source contributions along with their uncertainties and associated health effects estimates but also estimates of model uncertainty (posterior model probabilities) that have been ignored in previous studies. The results from our methods agreed in general with those from the previously conducted workshop/studies on the source apportionment of PM health effects in terms of number of major contributing sources, estimated source profiles, and contributions. However, some of the adverse source-specific health effects identified in the previous studies were not statistically significant in our analysis, which probably resulted because we incorporated parameter uncertainty in estimated source contributions that has been ignored in the previous studies into the estimation of health effects parameters. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000.

PubMed

Stern, David I

2005-01-01

The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.

Indoleamine Hallucinogens in Cluster Headache: Results of the Clusterbusters Medication Use Survey.

PubMed

Schindler, Emmanuelle A D; Gottschalk, Christopher H; Weil, Marsha J; Shapiro, Robert E; Wright, Douglas A; Sewell, Richard Andrew

2015-01-01

Cluster headache is one of the most debilitating pain syndromes. A significant number of patients are refractory to conventional therapies. The Clusterbusters.org medication use survey sought to characterize the effects of both conventional and alternative medications used in cluster headache. Participants were recruited from cluster headache websites and headache clinics. The final analysis included responses from 496 participants. The survey was modeled after previously published surveys and was available online. Most responses were chosen from a list, though others were free-texted. Conventional abortive and preventative medications were identified and their efficacies agreed with those previously published. The indoleamine hallucinogens, psilocybin, lysergic acid diethylamide, and lysergic acid amide, were comparable to or more efficacious than most conventional medications. These agents were also perceived to shorten/abort a cluster period and bring chronic cluster headache into remission more so than conventional medications. Furthermore, infrequent and non-hallucinogenic doses were reported to be efficacious. Findings provide additional evidence that several indoleamine hallucinogens are rated as effective in treating cluster headache. These data reinforce the need for further investigation of the effects of these and related compounds in cluster headache under experimentally controlled settings.

Self-transcendence and nurse-patient interaction in cognitively intact nursing home patients.

PubMed

Haugan, Gørill; Rannestad, Toril; Hanssen, Brith; Espnes, Geir A

2012-12-01

The aim of this study was to test whether nurse-patient interaction affects cognitively intact nursing home patients' interpersonal and intrapersonal self-transcendence, as well as testing the psychometric properties of the Nurse-Patient Interaction Scale (NPIS). Self-transcendence is considered a spiritual developmental process of maturity in adulthood, and a vital resource of well-being at the end of life. The concept of self-transcendence has previously been explored in various populations, yet the nurse-patient interactions' potential influence on self-transcendence in nursing home patients has not been published previously. A cross-sectional design employing the Self-Transcendence Scale and the NPIS was adopted. A sample of 202 cognitively well-functioning nursing home patients in Norway was selected. The statistical analyses were carried out using lisrel 8.8 and structural equation modelling. Structural equation modelling-analysis indicates statistical significant effect of nurse-patient interaction on the patients' self-transcendence. Direct influence on the intrapersonal and indirect influence on the interpersonal self-transcendence aspects was disclosed. Nurse-patient interaction significantly affected both interpersonal and intrapersonal self-transcendence among cognitively intact nursing home patients. Hence, facilitating caring interventions can be significantly beneficial to older patients' self-transcendence and thereby well-being, both emotional and physical. Caring behaviour signifies the vital and ultimate qualitative nursing behaviour, which promotes self-transcendence and thereby well-being. These findings are important for clinical nursing that intends to increase patients' well-being. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Determinants of individuals' participation in integrated chronic disease screening in Singapore.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Kavita; Wee, Hwee Lin; Ng, Sheryl Hui Xian; Rebello, Salome; Tai, E Shyong; Lee, Jeannette; Tan, Chuen Seng

2016-06-10

A large pool of patients with chronic diseases remains undiagnosed globally and in Singapore. We explored factors associated with participation in a health screening exercise, using revealed preference, that is, actual attendance, to understand why people remain undiagnosed with chronic diseases. A cross-sectional, community-based sample of Singapore residents was invited to participate in home interviews, and subsequently to attend centre-based health screening, between 2004 and 2007. Determinants of health screening participation were identified using logistic regression models based on Andersen's Behavioral Model. Of the 6366 participants who completed health interview, 4092 attended the health screening, while 2274 did not. Older age, Chinese or Indian ethnicity, higher education levels, greater intake of monounsaturated fat, greater transport and leisure-time physical activity were the key predisposing factors associated with greater health screening participation. Greater family cohesion was the key associated enabling factor, while previous diagnosis of dyslipidaemia or musculoskeletal conditions, absence of previously diagnosed diabetes or hypertension and lower perceived physical health were the associated need factors. Our study suggests that ethnicity, education, family cohesion, healthy behaviour patterns and perceived physical health status were key determinants of health screening participation. Enhancing the cultural competence of preventive health services may help increase participation of these groups in screening efforts and reduce the proportions of undiagnosed chronic disease in the community. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Which dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma benefit most from chemotherapy after surgery? Results from an individual patient data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schmidt, A F; Groenwold, R H H; Amsellem, P; Bacon, N; Klungel, O H; Hoes, A W; de Boer, A; Kow, K; Maritato, K; Kirpensteijn, J; Nielen, M

2016-03-01

Osteosarcoma (OS) is a malignant tumor of mesenchymal origin that produces osteoid. Given that the prognosis can vary considerably between dogs, we aimed to explore whether treatment could be tailored towards patient subgroups, characterized by their predicted risk of mortality. For the current study, a subset of five nonrandomized studies (400 subjects of whom 88 were dead at 5 months follow-up) was used from a previously published 20 study individual patient data meta-analysis. Missing data was dependent on observed variables and was imputed to correct for this dependency. Based on a previously published multivariable prognostic model, the 5-month mortality risk was predicted. Subsequently, in surgically treated dogs, using a logistic regression model with a random intercept for a study indicator, we explored whether chemotherapy effectiveness depended on predicted 5-month mortality risk. After adjustment for potential confounders the main effect of any chemotherapy was 0.48 (odds ratio) (95%CI 0.30; 0.78). Testing for chemotherapy by predicted 5-month mortality risk interaction revealed that the effects of any chemotherapy decreased with increasing predicted risk; interaction OR 3.41 (1.07; 10.84). Results from individually comparing carboplatin, cisplatin, doxorubicin and doxorubicin combination therapy to no chemotherapy, were similar in magnitude and direction. These results indicate that the main treatment effects of chemotherapy do not necessarily apply to all patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical testing of association between menstruation and migraine.

PubMed

Barra, Mathias; Dahl, Fredrik A; Vetvik, Kjersti G

2015-02-01

To repair and refine a previously proposed method for statistical analysis of association between migraine and menstruation. Menstrually related migraine (MRM) affects about 20% of female migraineurs in the general population. The exact pathophysiological link from menstruation to migraine is hypothesized to be through fluctuations in female reproductive hormones, but the exact mechanisms remain unknown. Therefore, the main diagnostic criterion today is concurrency of migraine attacks with menstruation. Methods aiming to exclude spurious associations are wanted, so that further research into these mechanisms can be performed on a population with a true association. The statistical method is based on a simple two-parameter null model of MRM (which allows for simulation modeling), and Fisher's exact test (with mid-p correction) applied to standard 2 × 2 contingency tables derived from the patients' headache diaries. Our method is a corrected version of a previously published flawed framework. To our best knowledge, no other published methods for establishing a menstruation-migraine association by statistical means exist today. The probabilistic methodology shows good performance when subjected to receiver operator characteristic curve analysis. Quick reference cutoff values for the clinical setting were tabulated for assessing association given a patient's headache history. In this paper, we correct a proposed method for establishing association between menstruation and migraine by statistical methods. We conclude that the proposed standard of 3-cycle observations prior to setting an MRM diagnosis should be extended with at least one perimenstrual window to obtain sufficient information for statistical processing. © 2014 American Headache Society.

Construction and validation of an atomic model for bacterial TSPO from electron microscopy density, evolutionary constraints, and biochemical and biophysical data.

PubMed

Hinsen, Konrad; Vaitinadapoule, Aurore; Ostuni, Mariano A; Etchebest, Catherine; Lacapere, Jean-Jacques

2015-02-01

The 18 kDa protein TSPO is a highly conserved transmembrane protein found in bacteria, yeast, animals and plants. TSPO is involved in a wide range of physiological functions, among which the transport of several molecules. The atomic structure of monomeric ligand-bound mouse TSPO in detergent has been published recently. A previously published low-resolution structure of Rhodobacter sphaeroides TSPO, obtained from tubular crystals with lipids and observed in cryo-electron microscopy, revealed an oligomeric structure without any ligand. We analyze this electron microscopy density in view of available biochemical and biophysical data, building a matching atomic model for the monomer and then the entire crystal. We compare its intra- and inter-molecular contacts with those predicted by amino acid covariation in TSPO proteins from evolutionary sequence analysis. The arrangement of the five transmembrane helices in a monomer of our model is different from that observed for the mouse TSPO. We analyze possible ligand binding sites for protoporphyrin, for the high-affinity ligand PK 11195, and for cholesterol in TSPO monomers and/or oligomers, and we discuss possible functional implications. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of rate constants of PCB dechlorination reactions using an anaerobic dehalogenation model.

PubMed

Karakas, Filiz; Imamoglu, Ipek

2017-02-15

This study aims to estimate anaerobic dechlorination rate constants (k m ) of reactions of individual PCB congeners using data from four laboratory microcosms set up using sediment from Baltimore Harbor. Pathway k m values are estimated by modifying a previously developed model as Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model (ADM) which can be applied to any halogenated hydrophobic organic (HOC). Improvements such as handling multiple dechlorination activities (DAs) and co-elution of congeners, incorporating constraints, using new goodness of fit evaluation led to an increase in accuracy, speed and flexibility of ADM. DAs published in the literature in terms of chlorine substitutions as well as specific microorganisms and their combinations are used for identification of pathways. The best fit explaining the congener pattern changes was found for pathways of Phylotype DEH10, which has the ability to remove doubly flanked chlorines in meta and para positions, para flanked chlorines in meta position. The range of estimated k m values is between 0.0001-0.133d -1 , the median of which is found to be comparable to the few available published biologically confirmed rate constants. Compound specific modelling studies such as that performed by ADM can enable monitoring and prediction of concentration changes as well as toxicity during bioremediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transmission loss of double panels filled with porogranular materials.

PubMed

Chazot, Jean-Daniel; Guyader, Jean-Louis

2009-12-01

Sound transmission through hollow structures found its interest in several industrial domains such as building acoustics, automotive industry, and aeronautics. However, in practice, hollow structures are often filled with porous materials to improve acoustic properties without adding an excessive mass. Recently a lot of interest arises for granular materials of low density that can be an alternative to standard absorbing materials. This paper aims to predict vibro-acoustic behavior of double panels filled with porogranular materials by using the patch-mobility method recently published. Biot's theory is a basic tool for the description of porous material but is quite difficult to use in practice, mostly because of the solid phase characterization. The original simplified Biot's model (fluid-fluid model) for porogranular material permitting a considerable reduction in data necessary for calculation has been recently published. The aim of the present paper is to propose a model to predict sound transmission through a double panel filled with a porogranular material. The method is an extension of a previous paper to take into account the porogranular material through fluid-fluid Biot's model. After a global overview of the method, the case of a double panel filled with expanded polystyrene beads is studied and a comparison with measurements is realized.

Sunspot random walk and 22-year variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua

2012-01-01

We examine two stochastic models for consistency with observed long-term secular trends in sunspot number and a faint, but semi-persistent, 22-yr signal: (1) a null hypothesis, a simple one-parameter random-walk model of sunspot-number cycle-to-cycle change, and, (2) an alternative hypothesis, a two-parameter random-walk model with an imposed 22-yr alternating amplitude. The observed secular trend in sunspots, seen from solar cycle 5 to 23, would not be an unlikely result of the accumulation of multiple random-walk steps. Statistical tests show that a 22-yr signal can be resolved in historical sunspot data; that is, the probability is low that it would be realized from random data. On the other hand, the 22-yr signal has a small amplitude compared to random variation, and so it has a relatively small effect on sunspot predictions. Many published predictions for cycle 24 sunspots fall within the dispersion of previous cycle-to-cycle sunspot differences. The probability is low that the Sun will, with the accumulation of random steps over the next few cycles, walk down to a Dalton-like minimum. Our models support published interpretations of sunspot secular variation and 22-yr variation resulting from cycle-to-cycle accumulation of dynamo-generated magnetic energy.

Towards an accurate real-time locator of infrasonic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, V.; Blom, P.; Polozov, A.; Marcillo, O.; Arrowsmith, S.; Hofstetter, A.

2017-11-01

Infrasonic signals propagate from an atmospheric source via media with stochastic and fast space-varying conditions. Hence, their travel time, the amplitude at sensor recordings and even manifestation in the so-called "shadow zones" are random. Therefore, the traditional least-squares technique for locating infrasonic sources is often not effective, and the problem for the best solution must be formulated in probabilistic terms. Recently, a series of papers has been published about Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization (BISL) method based on the computation of the posterior probability density function (PPDF) of the source location, as a convolution of a priori probability distribution function (APDF) of the propagation model parameters with likelihood function (LF) of observations. The present study is devoted to the further development of BISL for higher accuracy and stability of the source location results and decreasing of computational load. We critically analyse previous algorithms and propose several new ones. First of all, we describe the general PPDF formulation and demonstrate that this relatively slow algorithm might be among the most accurate algorithms, provided the adequate APDF and LF are used. Then, we suggest using summation instead of integration in a general PPDF calculation for increased robustness, but this leads us to the 3D space-time optimization problem. Two different forms of APDF approximation are considered and applied for the PPDF calculation in our study. One of them is previously suggested, but not yet properly used is the so-called "celerity-range histograms" (CRHs). Another is the outcome from previous findings of linear mean travel time for the four first infrasonic phases in the overlapping consecutive distance ranges. This stochastic model is extended here to the regional distance of 1000 km, and the APDF introduced is the probabilistic form of the junction between this travel time model and range-dependent probability distributions of the phase arrival time picks. To illustrate the improvements in both computation time and location accuracy achieved, we compare location results for the new algorithms, previously published BISL-type algorithms and the least-squares location technique. This comparison is provided via a case study of different typical spatial data distributions and statistical experiment using the database of 36 ground-truth explosions from the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) recorded during the US summer season at USArray transportable seismic stations when they were near the site between 2006 and 2008.

egs_brachy: a versatile and fast Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamberland, Marc J. P.; Taylor, Randle E. P.; Rogers, D. W. O.; Thomson, Rowan M.

2016-12-01

egs_brachy is a versatile and fast Monte Carlo (MC) code for brachytherapy applications. It is based on the EGSnrc code system, enabling simulation of photons and electrons. Complex geometries are modelled using the EGSnrc C++ class library and egs_brachy includes a library of geometry models for many brachytherapy sources, in addition to eye plaques and applicators. Several simulation efficiency enhancing features are implemented in the code. egs_brachy is benchmarked by comparing TG-43 source parameters of three source models to previously published values. 3D dose distributions calculated with egs_brachy are also compared to ones obtained with the BrachyDose code. Well-defined simulations are used to characterize the effectiveness of many efficiency improving techniques, both as an indication of the usefulness of each technique and to find optimal strategies. Efficiencies and calculation times are characterized through single source simulations and simulations of idealized and typical treatments using various efficiency improving techniques. In general, egs_brachy shows agreement within uncertainties with previously published TG-43 source parameter values. 3D dose distributions from egs_brachy and BrachyDose agree at the sub-percent level. Efficiencies vary with radionuclide and source type, number of sources, phantom media, and voxel size. The combined effects of efficiency-improving techniques in egs_brachy lead to short calculation times: simulations approximating prostate and breast permanent implant (both with (2 mm)3 voxels) and eye plaque (with (1 mm)3 voxels) treatments take between 13 and 39 s, on a single 2.5 GHz Intel Xeon E5-2680 v3 processor core, to achieve 2% average statistical uncertainty on doses within the PTV. egs_brachy will be released as free and open source software to the research community.

Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf.

PubMed

van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T

2012-10-01

Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

egs_brachy: a versatile and fast Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy.

PubMed

Chamberland, Marc J P; Taylor, Randle E P; Rogers, D W O; Thomson, Rowan M

2016-12-07

egs_brachy is a versatile and fast Monte Carlo (MC) code for brachytherapy applications. It is based on the EGSnrc code system, enabling simulation of photons and electrons. Complex geometries are modelled using the EGSnrc C++ class library and egs_brachy includes a library of geometry models for many brachytherapy sources, in addition to eye plaques and applicators. Several simulation efficiency enhancing features are implemented in the code. egs_brachy is benchmarked by comparing TG-43 source parameters of three source models to previously published values. 3D dose distributions calculated with egs_brachy are also compared to ones obtained with the BrachyDose code. Well-defined simulations are used to characterize the effectiveness of many efficiency improving techniques, both as an indication of the usefulness of each technique and to find optimal strategies. Efficiencies and calculation times are characterized through single source simulations and simulations of idealized and typical treatments using various efficiency improving techniques. In general, egs_brachy shows agreement within uncertainties with previously published TG-43 source parameter values. 3D dose distributions from egs_brachy and BrachyDose agree at the sub-percent level. Efficiencies vary with radionuclide and source type, number of sources, phantom media, and voxel size. The combined effects of efficiency-improving techniques in egs_brachy lead to short calculation times: simulations approximating prostate and breast permanent implant (both with (2 mm) 3 voxels) and eye plaque (with (1 mm) 3 voxels) treatments take between 13 and 39 s, on a single 2.5 GHz Intel Xeon E5-2680 v3 processor core, to achieve 2% average statistical uncertainty on doses within the PTV. egs_brachy will be released as free and open source software to the research community.

Optimal study design with identical power: an application of power equivalence to latent growth curve models.

PubMed

von Oertzen, Timo; Brandmaier, Andreas M

2013-06-01

Structural equation models have become a broadly applied data-analytic framework. Among them, latent growth curve models have become a standard method in longitudinal research. However, researchers often rely solely on rules of thumb about statistical power in their study designs. The theory of power equivalence provides an analytical answer to the question of how design factors, for example, the number of observed indicators and the number of time points assessed in repeated measures, trade off against each other while holding the power for likelihood-ratio tests on the latent structure constant. In this article, we present applications of power-equivalent transformations on a model with data from a previously published study on cognitive aging, and highlight consequences of participant attrition on power. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

The Importance of Model Structure in the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Primary Care Interventions for the Management of Hypertension.

PubMed

Peñaloza-Ramos, Maria Cristina; Jowett, Sue; Sutton, Andrew John; McManus, Richard J; Barton, Pelham

2018-03-01

Management of hypertension can lead to significant reductions in blood pressure, thereby reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease. Modeling the course of cardiovascular disease is not without complications, and uncertainty surrounding the structure of a model will almost always arise once a choice of a model structure is defined. To provide a practical illustration of the impact on the results of cost-effectiveness of changing or adapting model structures in a previously published cost-utility analysis of a primary care intervention for the management of hypertension Targets and Self-Management for the Control of Blood Pressure in Stroke and at Risk Groups (TASMIN-SR). The case study assessed the structural uncertainty arising from model structure and from the exclusion of secondary events. Four alternative model structures were implemented. Long-term cost-effectiveness was estimated and the results compared with those from the TASMIN-SR model. The main cost-effectiveness results obtained in the TASMIN-SR study did not change with the implementation of alternative model structures. Choice of model type was limited to a cohort Markov model, and because of the lack of epidemiological data, only model 4 captured structural uncertainty arising from the exclusion of secondary events in the case study model. The results of this study indicate that the main conclusions drawn from the TASMIN-SR model of cost-effectiveness were robust to changes in model structure and the inclusion of secondary events. Even though one of the models produced results that were different to those of TASMIN-SR, the fact that the main conclusions were identical suggests that a more parsimonious model may have sufficed. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genome assembly and annotation of Arabidopsis halleri, a model for heavy metal hyperaccumulation and evolutionary ecology.

PubMed

Briskine, Roman V; Paape, Timothy; Shimizu-Inatsugi, Rie; Nishiyama, Tomoaki; Akama, Satoru; Sese, Jun; Shimizu, Kentaro K

2017-09-01

The self-incompatible species Arabidopsis halleri is a close relative of the self-compatible model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. The broad European and Asian distribution and heavy metal hyperaccumulation ability make A. halleri a useful model for ecological genomics studies. We used long-insert mate-pair libraries to improve the genome assembly of the A. halleri ssp. gemmifera Tada mine genotype (W302) collected from a site with high contamination by heavy metals in Japan. After five rounds of forced selfing, heterozygosity was reduced to 0.04%, which facilitated subsequent genome assembly. Our assembly now covers 196 Mb or 78% of the estimated genome size and achieved scaffold N50 length of 712 kb. To validate assembly and annotation, we used synteny of A. halleri Tada mine with a previously published high-quality reference assembly of a closely related species, Arabidopsis lyrata. Further validation of the assembly quality comes from synteny and phylogenetic analysis of the HEAVY METAL ATPASE4 (HMA4) and METAL TOLERANCE PROTEIN1 (MTP1) regions using published sequences from European A. halleri for comparison. Three tandemly duplicated copies of HMA4, key gene involved in cadmium and zinc hyperaccumulation, were assembled on a single scaffold. The assembly will enhance the genomewide studies of A. halleri as well as the allopolyploid Arabidopsis kamchatica derived from A. lyrata and A. halleri. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

From prediction error to incentive salience: mesolimbic computation of reward motivation.

PubMed

Berridge, Kent C

2012-04-01

Reward contains separable psychological components of learning, incentive motivation and pleasure. Most computational models have focused only on the learning component of reward, but the motivational component is equally important in reward circuitry, and even more directly controls behavior. Modeling the motivational component requires recognition of additional control factors besides learning. Here I discuss how mesocorticolimbic mechanisms generate the motivation component of incentive salience. Incentive salience takes Pavlovian learning and memory as one input and as an equally important input takes neurobiological state factors (e.g. drug states, appetite states, satiety states) that can vary independently of learning. Neurobiological state changes can produce unlearned fluctuations or even reversals in the ability of a previously learned reward cue to trigger motivation. Such fluctuations in cue-triggered motivation can dramatically depart from all previously learned values about the associated reward outcome. Thus, one consequence of the difference between incentive salience and learning can be to decouple cue-triggered motivation of the moment from previously learned values of how good the associated reward has been in the past. Another consequence can be to produce irrationally strong motivation urges that are not justified by any memories of previous reward values (and without distorting associative predictions of future reward value). Such irrationally strong motivation may be especially problematic in addiction. To understand these phenomena, future models of mesocorticolimbic reward function should address the neurobiological state factors that participate to control generation of incentive salience. © 2012 The Author. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Symbolically Modeling Concurrent MCAPI Executions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fischer, Topher; Mercer, Eric; Rungta, Neha

2011-01-01

Improper use of Inter-Process Communication (IPC) within concurrent systems often creates data races which can lead to bugs that are challenging to discover. Techniques that use Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) problems to symbolically model possible executions of concurrent software have recently been proposed for use in the formal verification of software. In this work we describe a new technique for modeling executions of concurrent software that use a message passing API called MCAPI. Our technique uses an execution trace to create an SMT problem that symbolically models all possible concurrent executions and follows the same sequence of conditional branch outcomes as the provided execution trace. We check if there exists a satisfying assignment to the SMT problem with respect to specific safety properties. If such an assignment exists, it provides the conditions that lead to the violation of the property. We show how our method models behaviors of MCAPI applications that are ignored in previously published techniques.

Detailed Modeling of the DART Spacecraft Impact into Didymoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, R.; Gisler, G.

2017-12-01

In this presentation we will model the impact of the DART spacecraft into the target Didymoon. Most previous modeling of this impact has used full density aluminum spheres with a mass of 300 kg or more recently 500 kg. Many of the published scaling laws for crater size and diameter as well as ejecta modeling assume this type of impactor. The actual spacecraft for the DART impact is not solid and does not contain a solid dedicated kinetic impactor. The spacecraft is considered the impactor. Since the spacecraft is significantly larger ( 100 x 100 x 200 cm) in size than a full density aluminum sphere (radius 35 cm) the resulting impact dynamics will be quite different. Here we model both types of impact and compare the results of the simulation for crater size, crater depth and ejecta. This allows for a comparison of the momentum enhancement factor, beta. Suggestions for improvement of the spacecraft design will be given.

A phenomenological retention tank model using settling velocity distributions.

PubMed

Maruejouls, T; Vanrolleghem, P A; Pelletier, G; Lessard, P

2012-12-15

Many authors have observed the influence of the settling velocity distribution on the sedimentation process in retention tanks. However, the pollutants' behaviour in such tanks is not well characterized, especially with respect to their settling velocity distribution. This paper presents a phenomenological modelling study dealing with the way by which the settling velocity distribution of particles in combined sewage changes between entering and leaving an off-line retention tank. The work starts from a previously published model (Lessard and Beck, 1991) which is first implemented in a wastewater management modelling software, to be then tested with full-scale field data for the first time. Next, its performance is improved by integrating the particle settling velocity distribution and adding a description of the resuspension due to pumping for emptying the tank. Finally, the potential of the improved model is demonstrated by comparing the results for one more rain event. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oceanic Fluxes of Mass, Heat and Freshwater: A Global Estimate and Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacDonald, Alison Marguerite

1995-01-01

Data from fifteen globally distributed, modern, high resolution, hydrographic oceanic transects are combined in an inverse calculation using large scale box models. The models provide estimates of the global meridional heat and freshwater budgets and are used to examine the sensitivity of the global circulation, both inter and intra-basin exchange rates, to a variety of external constraints provided by estimates of Ekman, boundary current and throughflow transports. A solution is found which is consistent with both the model physics and the global data set, despite a twenty five year time span and a lack of seasonal consistency among the data. The overall pattern of the global circulation suggested by the models is similar to that proposed in previously published local studies and regional reviews. However, significant qualitative and quantitative differences exist. These differences are due both to the model definition and to the global nature of the data set.

A reassessment of Galileo radiation exposures in the Jupiter magnetosphere.

PubMed

Atwell, William; Townsend, Lawrence; Miller, Thomas; Campbell, Christina

2005-01-01

Earlier particle experiments in the 1970s on Pioneer-10 and -11 and Voyager-1 and -2 provided Jupiter flyby particle data, which were used by Divine and Garrett to develop the first Jupiter trapped radiation environment model. This model was used to establish a baseline radiation effects design limit for the Galileo onboard electronics. Recently, Garrett et al. have developed an updated Galileo Interim Radiation Environment (GIRE) model based on Galileo electron data. In this paper, we have used the GIRE model to reassess the computed radiation exposures and dose effects for Galileo. The 34-orbit 'as flown' Galileo trajectory data and the updated GIRE model were used to compute the electron and proton spectra for each of the 34 orbits. The total ionisation doses of electrons and protons have been computed based on a parametric shielding configuration, and these results are compared with previously published results.

Symmetrical and overloaded effect of diffusion in information filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xuzhen; Tian, Hui; Chen, Guilin; Cai, Shimin

2017-10-01

In physical dynamics, mass diffusion theory has been applied to design effective information filtering models on bipartite network. In previous works, researchers unilaterally believe objects' similarities are determined by single directional mass diffusion from the collected object to the uncollected, meanwhile, inadvertently ignore adverse influence of diffusion overload. It in some extent veils the essence of diffusion in physical dynamics and hurts the recommendation accuracy and diversity. After delicate investigation, we argue that symmetrical diffusion effectively discloses essence of mass diffusion, and high diffusion overload should be published. Accordingly, in this paper, we propose an symmetrical and overload penalized diffusion based model (SOPD), which shows excellent performances in extensive experiments on benchmark datasets Movielens and Netflix.

Integrated computational model of the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiao; Jacobs, Elizabeth R.; Camara, Amadou K. S.; Clough, Anne V.

2018-01-01

Integrated computational modeling provides a mechanistic and quantitative framework for describing lung mitochondrial bioenergetics. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop and validate a thermodynamically-constrained integrated computational model of the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria. The model incorporates the major biochemical reactions and transport processes in lung mitochondria. A general framework was developed to model those biochemical reactions and transport processes. Intrinsic model parameters such as binding constants were estimated using previously published isolated enzymes and transporters kinetic data. Extrinsic model parameters such as maximal reaction and transport velocities were estimated by fitting the integrated bioenergetics model to published and new tricarboxylic acid cycle and respirometry data measured in isolated rat lung mitochondria. The integrated model was then validated by assessing its ability to predict experimental data not used for the estimation of the extrinsic model parameters. For example, the model was able to predict reasonably well the substrate and temperature dependency of mitochondrial oxygen consumption, kinetics of NADH redox status, and the kinetics of mitochondrial accumulation of the cationic dye rhodamine 123, driven by mitochondrial membrane potential, under different respiratory states. The latter required the coupling of the integrated bioenergetics model to a pharmacokinetic model for the mitochondrial uptake of rhodamine 123 from buffer. The integrated bioenergetics model provides a mechanistic and quantitative framework for 1) integrating experimental data from isolated lung mitochondria under diverse experimental conditions, and 2) assessing the impact of a change in one or more mitochondrial processes on overall lung mitochondrial bioenergetics. In addition, the model provides important insights into the bioenergetics and respiration of lung mitochondria and how they differ from those of mitochondria from other organs. To the best of our knowledge, this model is the first for the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria. PMID:29889855

Integrated computational model of the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao; Dash, Ranjan K; Jacobs, Elizabeth R; Camara, Amadou K S; Clough, Anne V; Audi, Said H

2018-01-01

Integrated computational modeling provides a mechanistic and quantitative framework for describing lung mitochondrial bioenergetics. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop and validate a thermodynamically-constrained integrated computational model of the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria. The model incorporates the major biochemical reactions and transport processes in lung mitochondria. A general framework was developed to model those biochemical reactions and transport processes. Intrinsic model parameters such as binding constants were estimated using previously published isolated enzymes and transporters kinetic data. Extrinsic model parameters such as maximal reaction and transport velocities were estimated by fitting the integrated bioenergetics model to published and new tricarboxylic acid cycle and respirometry data measured in isolated rat lung mitochondria. The integrated model was then validated by assessing its ability to predict experimental data not used for the estimation of the extrinsic model parameters. For example, the model was able to predict reasonably well the substrate and temperature dependency of mitochondrial oxygen consumption, kinetics of NADH redox status, and the kinetics of mitochondrial accumulation of the cationic dye rhodamine 123, driven by mitochondrial membrane potential, under different respiratory states. The latter required the coupling of the integrated bioenergetics model to a pharmacokinetic model for the mitochondrial uptake of rhodamine 123 from buffer. The integrated bioenergetics model provides a mechanistic and quantitative framework for 1) integrating experimental data from isolated lung mitochondria under diverse experimental conditions, and 2) assessing the impact of a change in one or more mitochondrial processes on overall lung mitochondrial bioenergetics. In addition, the model provides important insights into the bioenergetics and respiration of lung mitochondria and how they differ from those of mitochondria from other organs. To the best of our knowledge, this model is the first for the bioenergetics of isolated lung mitochondria.

Kinematic analysis of a posterior-stabilized knee prosthesis.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhi-Xin; Wen, Liang; Qu, Tie-Bing; Hou, Li-Li; Xiang, Dong; Bin, Jia

2015-01-20

The goal of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is to restore knee kinematics. Knee prosthesis design plays a very important role in successful restoration. Here, kinematics models of normal and prosthetic knees were created and validated using previously published data. Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans of a healthy, anticorrosive female cadaver were used to establish a model of the entire lower limbs, including the femur, tibia, patella, fibula, distal femur cartilage, and medial and lateral menisci, as well as the anterior cruciate, posterior cruciate, medial collateral, and lateral collateral ligaments. The data from the three-dimensional models of the normal knee joint and a posterior-stabilized (PS) knee prosthesis were imported into finite element analysis software to create the final kinematic model of the TKA prosthesis, which was then validated by comparison with a previous study. The displacement of the medial/lateral femur and the internal rotation angle of the tibia were analyzed during 0-135° flexion. Both the output data trends and the measured values derived from the normal knee's kinematics model were very close to the results reported in a previous in vivo study, suggesting that this model can be used for further analyses. The PS knee prosthesis underwent an abnormal forward displacement compared with the normal knee and has insufficient, or insufficiently aggressive, "rollback" compared with the lateral femur of the normal knee. In addition, a certain degree of reverse rotation occurs during flexion of the PS knee prosthesis. There were still several differences between the kinematics of the PS knee prosthesis and a normal knee, suggesting room for improving the design of the PS knee prosthesis. The abnormal kinematics during early flexion shows that the design of the articular surface played a vital role in improving the kinematics of the PS knee prosthesis.

An empirical examination of WISE/NEOWISE asteroid analysis and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myhrvold, Nathan

2017-10-01

Observations made by the WISE space telescope and subsequent analysis by the NEOWISE project represent the largest corpus of asteroid data to date, describing the diameter, albedo, and other properties of the ~164,000 asteroids in the collection. I present a critical reanalysis of the WISE observational data, and NEOWISE results published in numerous papers and in the JPL Planetary Data System (PDS). This analysis reveals shortcomings and a lack of clarity, both in the original analysis and in the presentation of results. The procedures used to generate NEOWISE results fall short of established thermal modelling standards. Rather than using a uniform protocol, 10 modelling methods were applied to 12 combinations of WISE band data. Over half the NEOWISE results are based on a single band of data. Most NEOWISE curve fits are poor quality, frequently missing many or all the data points. About 30% of the single-band results miss all the data; 43% of the results derived from the most common multiple-band combinations miss all the data in at least one band. The NEOWISE data processing procedures rely on inconsistent assumptions, and introduce bias by systematically discarding much of the original data. I show that error estimates for the WISE observational data have a true uncertainty factor of ~1.2 to 1.9 times larger than previously described, and that the error estimates do not fit a normal distribution. These issues call into question the validity of the NEOWISE Monte-Carlo error analysis. Comparing published NEOWISE diameters to published estimates using radar, occultation, or spacecraft measurements (ROS) reveals 150 for which the NEOWISE diameters were copied exactly from the ROS source. My findings show that the accuracy of diameter estimates for NEOWISE results depend heavily on the choice of data bands and model. Systematic errors in the diameter estimates are much larger than previously described. Systematic errors for diameters in the PDS range from -3% to +27%. Random errors range from -14% to +19% when using all four WISE bands, and from -45% to +74% in cases using only the W2 band. The results presented here show that much work remains to be done towards understanding asteroid data from WISE/NEOWISE.

SU-E-T-05: Comparing DNA Strand Break Yields for Photons under Different Irradiation Conditions with Geant4-DNA.

PubMed

Pater, P; Bernal, M; Naqa, I El; Seuntjens, J

2012-06-01

To validate and scrutinize published DNA strand break data with Geant4-DNA and a probabilistic model. To study the impact of source size, electronic equilibrium and secondary electron tracking cutoff on direct relative biological effectiveness (DRBE). Geant4 (v4.9.5) was used to simulate a cylindrical region of interest (ROI) with r = 15 nm and length = 1.05 mm, in a slab of liquid water of 1.06 g/cm 3 density. The ROI was irradiated with mono-energetic photons, with a uniformly distributed volumetric isotropic source (0.28, 1.5 keV) or a plane beam (0.662, 1.25 MeV), of variable size. Electrons were tracked down to 50 or 10 eV, with G4-DNA processes and energy transfer greater than 10.79 eV was scored. Based on volume ratios, each scored event had a 0.0388 probability of happening on either DNA helix (break). Clusters of at least one break on each DNA helix within 3.4 nm were found using a DBSCAN algorithm and categorized as double strand breaks (DSB). All other events were categorized as single strand breaks (SSB). Geant4-DNA is able to reproduce strand break yields previously published. Homogeneous irradiation conditions should be present throughout the ROI for DRBE comparisons. SSB yields seem slightly dependent on the primary photon energy. DRBEs show a significant increasing trend for lower energy incident photons. A lower electron cutoff produces higher SSB yields, but decreases the SSB/DSB yields ratio. The probabilistic and geometrical DNA models can predict equivalent results. Using Geant4, we were able to reproduce previously published results on the direct strand break yields of photon and study the importance of irradiation conditions. We also show an ascending trend for DRBE with lower incident photon energies. A probabilistic model coupled with track structure analysis can be used to simulate strand break yields. NSERC, CIHR. © 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Writing and Publishing Handbook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, William F., Ed.

Intended to provide guidance in academic publishing to faculty members, especially younger faculty members, this handbook is a compilation of four previously published essays by different authors. Following a preface and an introduction, the four essays and their authors are as follows: (1) "One Writer's Secrets" (Donald M. Murray); (2)…

Isaac Newton and the astronomical refraction.

PubMed

Lehn, Waldemar H

2008-12-01

In a short interval toward the end of 1694, Isaac Newton developed two mathematical models for the theory of the astronomical refraction and calculated two refraction tables, but did not publish his theory. Much effort has been expended, starting with Biot in 1836, in the attempt to identify the methods and equations that Newton used. In contrast to previous work, a closed form solution is identified for the refraction integral that reproduces the table for his first model (in which density decays linearly with elevation). The parameters of his second model, which includes the exponential variation of pressure in an isothermal atmosphere, have also been identified by reproducing his results. The implication is clear that in each case Newton had derived exactly the correct equations for the astronomical refraction; furthermore, he was the first to do so.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances.

PubMed

Gil, Manuel

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error. PMID:25279263

Antineutrino Charged-Current Reactions on Hydrocarbon with Low Momentum Transfer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gran, R.; Betancourt, M.; Elkins, M.

We report on multi-nucleon effects in low momentum transfer (more » $< 0.8$ GeV/c) anti-neutrino interactions on scintillator. These data are from the 2010-11 anti-neutrino phase of the MINERvA experiment at Fermilab. The hadronic energy spectrum of this inclusive sample is well-described when a screening effect at low energy transfer and a two-nucleon knockout process are added to a relativistic Fermi gas model of quasi-elastic, $$\\Delta$$ resonance, and higher resonance processes. In this analysis, model elements introduced to describe previously published neutrino results have quantitatively similar benefits for this anti-neutrino sample. We present the results as a double-differential cross section to accelerate investigation of alternate models for anti-neutrino scattering off nuclei.« less

Generalized Effective Medium Theory for Particulate Nanocomposite Materials

PubMed Central

Siddiqui, Muhammad Usama; Arif, Abul Fazal M.

2016-01-01

The thermal conductivity of particulate nanocomposites is strongly dependent on the size, shape, orientation and dispersion uniformity of the inclusions. To correctly estimate the effective thermal conductivity of the nanocomposite, all these factors should be included in the prediction model. In this paper, the formulation of a generalized effective medium theory for the determination of the effective thermal conductivity of particulate nanocomposites with multiple inclusions is presented. The formulated methodology takes into account all the factors mentioned above and can be used to model nanocomposites with multiple inclusions that are randomly oriented or aligned in a particular direction. The effect of inclusion dispersion non-uniformity is modeled using a two-scale approach. The applications of the formulated effective medium theory are demonstrated using previously published experimental and numerical results for several particulate nanocomposites. PMID:28773817

Anti-Neutrino Charged-Current Reactions on Scintillator with Low Momentum Transfer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gran, R.; et al.

2018-03-25

We report on multi-nucleon effects in low momentum transfer (more » $< 0.8$ GeV/c) anti-neutrino interactions on scintillator. These data are from the 2010-11 anti-neutrino phase of the MINERvA experiment at Fermilab. The hadronic energy spectrum of this inclusive sample is well-described when a screening effect at low energy transfer and a two-nucleon knockout process are added to a relativistic Fermi gas model of quasi-elastic, $$\\Delta$$ resonance, and higher resonance processes. In this analysis, model elements introduced to describe previously published neutrino results have quantitatively similar benefits for this anti-neutrino sample. We present the results as a double-differential cross section to accelerate investigation of alternate models for anti-neutrino scattering off nuclei.« less

Anti-Neutrino Charged-Current Reactions on Scintillator with Low Momentum Transfer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gran, R.; et al.

2018-06-01

We report on multi-nucleon effects in low momentum transfer (more » $< 0.8$ GeV/c) anti-neutrino interactions on scintillator. These data are from the 2010-11 anti-neutrino phase of the MINERvA experiment at Fermilab. The hadronic energy spectrum of this inclusive sample is well-described when a screening effect at low energy transfer and a two-nucleon knockout process are added to a relativistic Fermi gas model of quasi-elastic, $$\\Delta$$ resonance, and higher resonance processes. In this analysis, model elements introduced to describe previously published neutrino results have quantitatively similar benefits for this anti-neutrino sample. We present the results as a double-differential cross section to accelerate investigation of alternate models for anti-neutrino scattering off nuclei.« less

Antineutrino Charged-Current Reactions on Hydrocarbon with Low Momentum Transfer

DOE PAGES

Gran, R.; Betancourt, M.; Elkins, M.; ...

2018-06-01

We report on multi-nucleon effects in low momentum transfer (more » $< 0.8$ GeV/c) anti-neutrino interactions on scintillator. These data are from the 2010-11 anti-neutrino phase of the MINERvA experiment at Fermilab. The hadronic energy spectrum of this inclusive sample is well-described when a screening effect at low energy transfer and a two-nucleon knockout process are added to a relativistic Fermi gas model of quasi-elastic, $$\\Delta$$ resonance, and higher resonance processes. In this analysis, model elements introduced to describe previously published neutrino results have quantitatively similar benefits for this anti-neutrino sample. We present the results as a double-differential cross section to accelerate investigation of alternate models for anti-neutrino scattering off nuclei.« less

Impact of previous vascular burden on in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Consuegra-Sánchez, Luciano; Melgarejo-Moreno, Antonio; Galcerá-Tomás, José; Alonso-Fernández, Nuria; Díaz-Pastor, Angela; Escudero-García, Germán; Jaulent-Huertas, Leticia; Vicente-Gilabert, Marta

2014-06-01

Patients with a current acute coronary syndrome and previous ischemic heart disease, peripheral arterial disease, and/or cerebrovascular disease are reported to have a poorer outcome than those without these previous conditions. It is uncertain whether this association with outcome is observed at long-term follow-up. Prospective observational study, including 4247 patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Detailed clinical data and information on previous ischemic heart disease, peripheral arterial disease, and cerebrovascular disease ("vascular burden") were recorded. Multivariate models were performed for in-hospital and long-term (median, 7.2 years) all-cause mortality. One vascular territory was affected in 1131 (26.6%) patients and ≥ 2 territories in 221 (5.2%). The total in-hospital mortality rate was 12.3% and the long-term incidence density was 3.5 deaths per 100 patient-years. A background of previous ischemic heart disease (odds ratio = 0.83; P = .35), peripheral arterial disease (odds ratio = 1.30; P = .34), or cerebrovascular disease (stroke) (odds ratio = 1.15; P = .59) was not independently predictive of in-hospital death. In an adjusted model, previous cerebrovascular disease and previous peripheral arterial disease were both predictors of mortality at long-term follow-up (hazard ratio = 1.57; P < .001; and hazard ratio = 1.34; P = .001; respectively). Patients with ≥ 2 diseased vascular territories showed higher long-term mortality (hazard ratio = 2.35; P < .001), but not higher in-hospital mortality (odds ratio = 1.07; P = .844). In patients with a diagnosis of ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction, the previous vascular burden determines greater long-term mortality. Considered individually, previous cerebrovascular disease and peripheral arterial disease were predictors of mortality at long-term after hospital discharge. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Study of compressible flow through a rectangular-to-semiannular transition duct

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, Jeffry; Okiishi, Theodore H.; Wendt, Bruce J.; Reichert, Bruce A.

1995-01-01

Detailed flow field measurements are presented for compressible flow through a diffusing rectangular-to-semiannular transition duct. Comparisons are made with published computational results for flow through the duct. Three-dimensional velocity vectors and total pressures were measured at the exit plane of the diffuser model. The inlet flow was also measured. These measurements are made using calibrated five-hole probes. Surface oil flow visualization and surface static pressure data were also taken. The study was conducted with an inlet Mach number of 0.786. The diffuser Reynolds based on the inlet centerline velocity and the exit diameter of the diffuser was 3,200,000. Comparison of the measured data with previously published computational results are made. Data demonstrating the ability of vortex generators to reduce flow separation and circumferential distortion is also presented.

Life and death of a hero - lessons learned from modelling the dwarf spheroidal Hercules: an incorrect orbit?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaña, M.; Fellhauer, M.; Smith, R.; Candlish, G. N.; Cohen, R.; Farias, J. P.

2015-01-01

Hercules is a dwarf spheroidal satellite of the Milky Way, found at a distance of ≈138 kpc, and showing evidence of tidal disruption. It is very elongated and exhibits a velocity gradient of 16 ± 3 km s-1 kpc-1. Using these data a possible orbit of Hercules has previously been deduced in the literature. In this study, we make use of a novel approach to find a best-fitting model that follows the published orbit. Instead of using trial and error, we use a systematic approach in order to find a model that fits multiple observables simultaneously. As such, we investigate a much wider parameter range of initial conditions and ensure we have found the best match possible. Using a dark matter free progenitor that undergoes tidal disruption, our best-fitting model can simultaneously match the observed luminosity, central surface brightness, effective radius, velocity dispersion, and velocity gradient of Hercules. However, we find it is impossible to reproduce the observed elongation and the position angle of Hercules at the same time in our models. This failure persists even when we vary the duration of the simulation significantly, and consider a more cuspy density distribution for the progenitor. We discuss how this suggests that the published orbit of Hercules is very likely to be incorrect.

Deficient reinforcement learning in medial frontal cortex as a model of dopamine-related motivational deficits in ADHD.

PubMed

Silvetti, Massimo; Wiersema, Jan R; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Verguts, Tom

2013-10-01

Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is a pathophysiologically complex and heterogeneous condition with both cognitive and motivational components. We propose a novel computational hypothesis of motivational deficits in ADHD, drawing together recent evidence on the role of anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and associated mesolimbic dopamine circuits in both reinforcement learning and ADHD. Based on findings of dopamine dysregulation and ACC involvement in ADHD we simulated a lesion in a previously validated computational model of ACC (Reward Value and Prediction Model, RVPM). We explored the effects of the lesion on the processing of reinforcement signals. We tested specific behavioral predictions about the profile of reinforcement-related deficits in ADHD in three experimental contexts; probability tracking task, partial and continuous reward schedules, and immediate versus delayed rewards. In addition, predictions were made at the neurophysiological level. Behavioral and neurophysiological predictions from the RVPM-based lesion-model of motivational dysfunction in ADHD were confirmed by data from previously published studies. RVPM represents a promising model of ADHD reinforcement learning suggesting that ACC dysregulation might play a role in the pathogenesis of motivational deficits in ADHD. However, more behavioral and neurophysiological studies are required to test core predictions of the model. In addition, the interaction with different brain networks underpinning other aspects of ADHD neuropathology (i.e., executive function) needs to be better understood. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is email a reliable means of contacting authors of previously published papers? A study of the Emergency Medicine Journal for 2001.

PubMed

O'Leary, F

2003-07-01

To determine whether it is possible to contact authors of previously published papers via email. A cross sectional study of the Emergency Medicine Journal for 2001. 118 articles were included in the study. The response rate from those with valid email addresses was 73%. There was no statistical difference between the type of email address used and the address being invalid (p=0.392) or between the type of article and the likelihood of a reply (p=0.197). More responses were obtained from work addresses when compared with Hotmail addresses (86% v 57%, p=0.02). Email is a valid means of contacting authors of previously published articles, particularly within the emergency medicine specialty. A work based email address may be a more valid means of contact than a Hotmail address.

Phenomenological model of visual acuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez-Pedrero, José A.; Alonso, José

2016-12-01

We propose in this work a model for describing visual acuity (V) as a function of defocus and pupil diameter. Although the model is mainly based on geometrical optics, it also incorporates nongeometrical effects phenomenologically. Compared to similar visual acuity models, the proposed one considers the effect of astigmatism and the variability of best corrected V among individuals; it also takes into account the accommodation and the "tolerance to defocus," the latter through a phenomenological parameter. We have fitted the model to the V data provided in the works of Holladay et al. and Peters, showing the ability of this model to accurately describe the variation of V against blur and pupil diameter. We have also performed a comparison between the proposed model and others previously published in the literature. The model is mainly intended for use in the design of ophthalmic compensations, but it can also be useful in other fields such as visual ergonomics, design of visual tests, and optical instrumentation.

Spectra of Hydrogen-poor Superluminous Supernovae from the Palomar Transient Factory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quimby, Robert M.; De Cia, Annalisa; Gal-Yam, Avishay; Leloudas, Giorgos; Lunnan, Ragnhild; Perley, Daniel A.; Vreeswijk, Paul M.; Yan, Lin; Bloom, Joshua S.; Cenko, S. Bradley; Cooke, Jeff; Ellis, Richard; Filippenko, Alexei V.; Kasliwal, Mansi M.; Kleiser, Io K. W.; Kulkarni, Shrinivas R.; Matheson, Thomas; Nugent, Peter E.; Pan, Yen-Chen; Silverman, Jeffrey M.; Sternberg, Assaf; Sullivan, Mark; Yaron, Ofer

2018-03-01

Most Type I superluminous supernovae (SLSNe-I) reported to date have been identified by their high peak luminosities and spectra lacking obvious signs of hydrogen. We demonstrate that these events can be distinguished from normal-luminosity SNe (including Type Ic events) solely from their spectra over a wide range of light-curve phases. We use this distinction to select 19 SLSNe-I and four possible SLSNe-I from the Palomar Transient Factory archive (including seven previously published objects). We present 127 new spectra of these objects and combine these with 39 previously published spectra, and we use these to discuss the average spectral properties of SLSNe-I at different spectral phases. We find that Mn II most probably contributes to the ultraviolet spectral features after maximum light, and we give a detailed study of the O II features that often characterize the early-time optical spectra of SLSNe-I. We discuss the velocity distribution of O II, finding that for some SLSNe-I this can be confined to a narrow range compared to relatively large systematic velocity shifts. Mg II and Fe II favor higher velocities than O II and C II, and we briefly discuss how this may constrain power-source models. We tentatively group objects by how well they match either SN 2011ke or PTF12dam and discuss the possibility that physically distinct events may have been previously grouped together under the SLSN-I label.

Spectra of Hydrogen-poor Superluminous Supernovae from the Palomar Transient Factory

DOE PAGES

Quimby, Robert M.; Cia, Annalisa De; Gal-Yam, Avishay; ...

2018-02-27

Most Type I superluminous supernovae (SLSNe-I) reported to date have been identified by their high peak luminosities and spectra lacking obvious signs of hydrogen. Here, we demonstrate that these events can be distinguished from normal-luminosity SNe (including Type Ic events) solely from their spectra over a wide range of light-curve phases. We use this distinction to select 19 SLSNe-I and four possible SLSNe-I from the Palomar Transient Factory archive (including seven previously published objects). We present 127 new spectra of these objects and combine these with 39 previously published spectra, and we use these to discuss the average spectral propertiesmore » of SLSNe-I at different spectral phases. We find that Mn ii most probably contributes to the ultraviolet spectral features after maximum light, and we give a detailed study of the O II features that often characterize the early-time optical spectra of SLSNe-I. We discuss the velocity distribution of O II, finding that for some SLSNe-I this can be confined to a narrow range compared to relatively large systematic velocity shifts. Mg II and Fe II favor higher velocities than O II and C II, and we briefly discuss how this may constrain power-source models. We tentatively group objects by how well they match either SN 2011ke or PTF12dam and discuss the possibility that physically distinct events may have been previously grouped together under the SLSN-I label.« less

Spectra of Hydrogen-poor Superluminous Supernovae from the Palomar Transient Factory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quimby, Robert M.; Cia, Annalisa De; Gal-Yam, Avishay

Most Type I superluminous supernovae (SLSNe-I) reported to date have been identified by their high peak luminosities and spectra lacking obvious signs of hydrogen. Here, we demonstrate that these events can be distinguished from normal-luminosity SNe (including Type Ic events) solely from their spectra over a wide range of light-curve phases. We use this distinction to select 19 SLSNe-I and four possible SLSNe-I from the Palomar Transient Factory archive (including seven previously published objects). We present 127 new spectra of these objects and combine these with 39 previously published spectra, and we use these to discuss the average spectral propertiesmore » of SLSNe-I at different spectral phases. We find that Mn ii most probably contributes to the ultraviolet spectral features after maximum light, and we give a detailed study of the O II features that often characterize the early-time optical spectra of SLSNe-I. We discuss the velocity distribution of O II, finding that for some SLSNe-I this can be confined to a narrow range compared to relatively large systematic velocity shifts. Mg II and Fe II favor higher velocities than O II and C II, and we briefly discuss how this may constrain power-source models. We tentatively group objects by how well they match either SN 2011ke or PTF12dam and discuss the possibility that physically distinct events may have been previously grouped together under the SLSN-I label.« less

Preliminary Assessment of Turbomachinery Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazumder, Quamrul H.

2007-01-01

This report assesses different CFD codes developed and currently being used at Glenn Research Center to predict turbomachinery fluid flow and heat transfer behavior. This report will consider the following codes: APNASA, TURBO, GlennHT, H3D, and SWIFT. Each code will be described separately in the following section with their current modeling capabilities, level of validation, pre/post processing, and future development and validation requirements. This report addresses only previously published and validations of the codes. However, the codes have been further developed to extend the capabilities of the codes.

Developmental biology in marine invertebrate symbioses.

PubMed

McFall-Ngai, M J; Ruby, E G

2000-12-01

Associations between marine invertebrates and their cooperative bacterial symbionts offer access to an understanding of the roots of host-microbe interaction; for example, several symbioses like the squid-vibrio light organ association serve as models for investigating how each partner affects the developmental biology of the other. Previous results have identified a program of specific developmental events that unfolds as the association is initiated. In the past year, published studies have focused primarily on describing the mechanisms underlying the signaling processes that occur between the juvenile squid and the luminous bacteria that colonize it.

A wavelet method for modeling and despiking motion artifacts from resting-state fMRI time series.

PubMed

Patel, Ameera X; Kundu, Prantik; Rubinov, Mikail; Jones, P Simon; Vértes, Petra E; Ersche, Karen D; Suckling, John; Bullmore, Edward T

2014-07-15

The impact of in-scanner head movement on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signals has long been established as undesirable. These effects have been traditionally corrected by methods such as linear regression of head movement parameters. However, a number of recent independent studies have demonstrated that these techniques are insufficient to remove motion confounds, and that even small movements can spuriously bias estimates of functional connectivity. Here we propose a new data-driven, spatially-adaptive, wavelet-based method for identifying, modeling, and removing non-stationary events in fMRI time series, caused by head movement, without the need for data scrubbing. This method involves the addition of just one extra step, the Wavelet Despike, in standard pre-processing pipelines. With this method, we demonstrate robust removal of a range of different motion artifacts and motion-related biases including distance-dependent connectivity artifacts, at a group and single-subject level, using a range of previously published and new diagnostic measures. The Wavelet Despike is able to accommodate the substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity of motion artifacts and can consequently remove a range of high and low frequency artifacts from fMRI time series, that may be linearly or non-linearly related to physical movements. Our methods are demonstrated by the analysis of three cohorts of resting-state fMRI data, including two high-motion datasets: a previously published dataset on children (N=22) and a new dataset on adults with stimulant drug dependence (N=40). We conclude that there is a real risk of motion-related bias in connectivity analysis of fMRI data, but that this risk is generally manageable, by effective time series denoising strategies designed to attenuate synchronized signal transients induced by abrupt head movements. The Wavelet Despiking software described in this article is freely available for download at www.brainwavelet.org. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Red and processed meat consumption and breast cancer: UK Biobank cohort study and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Anderson, Jana J; Darwis, Narisa D M; Mackay, Daniel F; Celis-Morales, Carlos A; Lyall, Donald M; Sattar, Naveed; Gill, Jason M R; Pell, Jill P

2018-02-01

Red and processed meat may be risk factors for breast cancer due to their iron content, administration of oestrogens to cattle or mutagens created during cooking. We studied the associations in UK Biobank and then included the results in a meta-analysis of published cohort studies. UK Biobank, a general population cohort study, recruited participants aged 40-69 years. Incident breast cancer was ascertained via linkage to routine hospital admission, cancer registry and death certificate data. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore the associations between red and processed meat consumption and breast cancer. Previously published cohort studies were identified from a systematic review using PubMed and Ovid and a meta-analysis conducted using a random effects model. Over a median of 7 years follow-up, 4819 of the 262,195 women developed breast cancer. The risk was increased in the highest tertile (>9 g/day) of processed meat consumption (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.35, p = 0.001). Collation with 10 previous cohort studies provided data on 40,257 incident breast cancers in 1.65 million women. On meta-analysis, processed meat consumption was associated with overall (relative risk [RR] 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.11) and post-menopausal (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03-1.15), but not pre-menopausal (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.88-1.10), breast cancer. In UK Biobank and the meta-analysis, red meat consumption was not associated with breast cancer (adjusted HR 0.99 95% CI 0.88-1.12 and RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.99-1.08, respectively). Consumption of processed meat, but not red meat, may increase the risk of breast cancer. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA methylation as a predictor of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Lussier, Alexandre A; Morin, Alexander M; MacIsaac, Julia L; Salmon, Jenny; Weinberg, Joanne; Reynolds, James N; Pavlidis, Paul; Chudley, Albert E; Kobor, Michael S

2018-01-01

Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) is a developmental disorder that manifests through a range of cognitive, adaptive, physiological, and neurobiological deficits resulting from prenatal alcohol exposure. Although the North American prevalence is currently estimated at 2-5%, FASD has proven difficult to identify in the absence of the overt physical features characteristic of fetal alcohol syndrome. As interventions may have the greatest impact at an early age, accurate biomarkers are needed to identify children at risk for FASD. Building on our previous work identifying distinct DNA methylation patterns in children and adolescents with FASD, we have attempted to validate these associations in a different clinical cohort and to use our DNA methylation signature to develop a possible epigenetic predictor of FASD. Genome-wide DNA methylation patterns were analyzed using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 array in the buccal epithelial cells of a cohort of 48 individuals aged 3.5-18 (24 FASD cases, 24 controls). The DNA methylation predictor of FASD was built using a stochastic gradient boosting model on our previously published dataset FASD cases and controls (GSE80261). The predictor was tested on the current dataset and an independent dataset of 48 autism spectrum disorder cases and 48 controls (GSE50759). We validated findings from our previous study that identified a DNA methylation signature of FASD, replicating the altered DNA methylation levels of 161/648 CpGs in this independent cohort, which may represent a robust signature of FASD in the epigenome. We also generated a predictive model of FASD using machine learning in a subset of our previously published cohort of 179 samples (83 FASD cases, 96 controls), which was tested in this novel cohort of 48 samples and resulted in a moderately accurate predictor of FASD status. Upon testing the algorithm in an independent cohort of individuals with autism spectrum disorder, we did not detect any bias towards autism, sex, age, or ethnicity. These findings further support the association of FASD with distinct DNA methylation patterns, while providing a possible entry point towards the development of epigenetic biomarkers of FASD.

Statin adherence and risk of acute cardiovascular events among women: a cohort study accounting for time-dependent confounding affected by previous adherence.

PubMed

Lavikainen, Piia; Helin-Salmivaara, Arja; Eerola, Mervi; Fang, Gang; Hartikainen, Juha; Huupponen, Risto; Korhonen, Maarit Jaana

2016-06-03

Previous studies on the effect of statin adherence on cardiovascular events in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease have adjusted for time-dependent confounding, but potentially introduced bias into their estimates as adherence and confounders were measured simultaneously. We aimed to evaluate the effect when accounting for time-dependent confounding affected by previous adherence as well as time sequence between factors. Retrospective cohort study. Finnish healthcare registers. Women aged 45-64 years initiating statin use for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in 2001-2004 (n=42 807). Acute cardiovascular event defined as a composite of acute coronary syndrome and acute ischaemic stroke was our primary outcome. Low-energy fractures were used as a negative control outcome to evaluate the healthy-adherer effect. During the 3-year follow-up, 474 women experienced the primary outcome event and 557 suffered a low-energy fracture. The causal HR estimated with marginal structural model for acute cardiovascular events for all the women who remained adherent (proportion of days covered ≥80%) to statin therapy during the previous adherence assessment year was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.94) when compared with everybody remaining non-adherent (proportion of days covered <80%). The result was robust against alternative model specifications. Statin adherers had a potentially reduced risk of experiencing low-energy fractures compared with non-adherers (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.07). Our study, which took into account the time dependence of adherence and confounders, as well as temporal order between these factors, is support for the concept that adherence to statins in women in primary prevention decreases the risk of acute cardiovascular events by about one-fifth in comparison to non-adherence. However, part of the observed effect of statin adherence on acute cardiovascular events may be due to the healthy-adherer effect. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Linking internal and external bacterial community control gives mechanistic framework for pelagic virus‐to‐bacteria ratios

PubMed Central

Pree, Bernadette; Thingstad, T. Frede

2016-01-01

Summary For more than 25 years, virus‐to‐bacteria ratios (VBR) have been measured and interpreted as indicators of the importance of viruses in aquatic ecosystems, yet a generally accepted theory for understanding mechanisms controlling VBR is still lacking. Assuming that the denominator (total bacterial abundance) is primarily predator controlled, while viral lysis compensates for host growth rates exceeding this grazing loss, the numerator (viral abundance) reflects activity differences between prokaryotic hosts. VBR is then a ratio between mechanisms generating structure within the bacterial community and interactions between different plankton functional types controlling bacterial community size. We here show how these arguments can be formalized by combining a recently published model for co‐evolutionary host‐virus interactions, with a previously published “minimum” model for the microbial food web. The result is a framework where viral lysis links bacterial diversity to microbial food web structure and function, creating relationships between different levels of organization that are strongly modified by organism‐level properties such as cost of resistance. PMID:27231817

Thermochemical conversion of biomass in smouldering combustion across scales: The roles of heterogeneous kinetics, oxygen and transport phenomena.

PubMed

Huang, Xinyan; Rein, Guillermo

2016-05-01

The thermochemical conversion of biomass in smouldering combustion is investigated here by combining experiments and modeling at two scales: matter (1mg) and bench (100g) scales. Emphasis is put on the effect of oxygen (0-33vol.%) and oxidation reactions because these are poorly studied in the literature in comparison to pyrolysis. The results are obtained for peat as a representative biomass for which there is high-quality experimental data published previously. Three kinetic schemes are explored, including various steps of drying, pyrolysis and oxidation. The kinetic parameters are found using the Kissinger-Genetic Algorithm method, and then implemented in a one-dimensional model of heat and mass transfer. The predictions are validated with thermogravimetric and bench-scale experiments and then analyzed to unravel the role of heterogeneous reaction. This is the first time that the influence of oxygen on biomass smouldering is explained in terms of both chemistry and transport phenomena across scales. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Sizes of prey consumed by two pelagic predators in US reservoirs: Implications for quantifying biomass of available prey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennerline, D.E.; Van Den Avyle, M.J.

2000-01-01

Striped bass Morone saxatilis and hybrid bass M. saxatilis x M. chrysops have been stocked to establish fisheries in many US reservoirs, but success has been limited by a poor understanding of relations between prey biomass and predator growth and survival. To define sizes of prey that are morphologically available, we developed predictive relationships between predator length, mouth dimensions, and expected maximum prey size; predictions were then validated using published data on sizes of clupeid prey (Dorosoma spp.) in five US reservoirs. Further, we compared the biomass of prey considered available to predators using two forms of a length-based consumption model - a previously published AP/P ratio and a revised model based on our results. Predictions of maximum prey size using predator GW were consistent with observed prey sizes in US reservoirs. Length of consumed Dorosoma was significantly, but weakly, correlated with predator length in four of the five reservoirs (r2 = 0.006-0.336, P 150 mm TL) were abundant. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Granulite fades Nd-isotopic homogenization in the Lewisian complex of northwest Scotland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitehouse, M.J.

1988-01-01

A published Sm-Nd whole-rock isochron of 2,920 ?? 50 Myr, obtained from a wide range of lithologies in the Lewisian complex of north-west Scotland, was interpreted1 as the time of protolith formation. This date is ???260 Myr older than estimates for the timing of high-grade metamorphism in the complex at ??? 2,660 Myr2'3, and this period is considered to represent the duration of the Lewisian crustal accretion-differentiation superevent (CADS)4. Here we give new Sm-Nd data, obtained specifically from granulite facies tonalitic gneisses, that yield a date of 2,600 ??155 Myr. Although depleted-mantle model ages (tDM suggest >200 Myr of premetamorphic crustal residence, the regression date and its associated initial Nd-isotopic parameters demonstrate Nd-isotopic homogenization during the high-grade event, as well as the probability of general rare-earth-element (REE) mobility. Models for selective element depletion in the complex have previously assumed REE immobility since 2,920 Myr, but the data presented here suggest that a reappraisal of the depletion mechanism is required. ?? 1988 Nature Publishing Group.

Home safety assessment and modification to reduce injurious falls in community-dwelling older adults: cost-utility and equity analysis.

PubMed

Pega, Frank; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Blakely, Tony; Atkinson, June; Wilson, Nick

2016-12-01

This study aimed to improve on previous modelling work to determine the health gain, cost-utility and health equity impacts from home safety assessment and modification (HSAM) for reducing injurious falls in older people. The model was a Markov macrosimulation one that estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. The setting was a country with detailed epidemiological and cost data (New Zealand (NZ)) for 2011. A health system perspective was taken and a discount rate of 3% was used (for both health gain and costs). Intervention effectiveness estimates came from a Cochrane systematic review and NZ-specific intervention costs were from a randomised controlled trial. In the 65 years and above age group, the HSAM programme cost a total of US$98 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) US$65 to US$139 million) to implement nationally and the accrued net health system costs were US$74 million (95% UI: cost saving to US$132 million). Health gains were 34 000 QALYs (95% UI: 5000 to 65 000). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$6000 (95% UI: cost saving to US$13 000), suggesting that HSAM is highly cost-effective. Targeting HSAM only to older people with previous injurious falls and to older people aged 75 years and above were also cost-effective (ICERs=US$1000 and US$11 000, respectively). There was no evidence for differential cost-effectiveness by gender or by ethnicity (Indigenous New Zealanders: Māori vs non-Māori). As per other studies, this modelling study indicates that the provision of an HSAM intervention produces considerable health gain and is highly cost-effective among older people. Targeting this intervention to older people with previous injurious falls is a promising initial approach before any scale up. ACTRN12609000779279. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Shipborne LF-VLF oceanic lightning observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoghzoghy, F. G.; Cohen, M. B.; Said, R. K.; Lehtinen, N. G.; Inan, U. S.

2015-10-01

Approximately 90% of natural lightning occurs over land, but recent observations, using Global Lightning Detection (GLD360) geolocation peak current estimates and satellite optical data, suggested that cloud-to-ground flashes are on average stronger over the ocean. We present initial statistics from a novel experiment using a Low Frequency (LF) magnetic field receiver system installed aboard the National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) Ronald W. Brown research vessel that allowed the detection of impulsive radio emissions from deep-oceanic discharges at short distances. Thousands of LF waveforms were recorded, facilitating the comparison of oceanic waveforms to their land counterparts. A computationally efficient electromagnetic radiation model that accounts for propagation over lossy and curved ground is constructed and compared with previously published models. We include the effects of Earth curvature on LF ground wave propagation and quantify the effects of channel-base current risetime, channel-base current falltime, and return stroke speed on the radiated LF waveforms observed at a given distance. We compare simulation results to data and conclude that previously reported larger GLD360 peak current estimates over the ocean are unlikely to fully result from differences in channel-base current risetime, falltime, or return stroke speed between ocean and land flashes.

Subliminal action priming modulates the perceived intensity of sensory action consequences.

PubMed

Stenner, Max-Philipp; Bauer, Markus; Sidarus, Nura; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Haggard, Patrick; Dolan, Raymond J

2014-02-01

The sense of control over the consequences of one's actions depends on predictions about these consequences. According to an influential computational model, consistency between predicted and observed action consequences attenuates perceived stimulus intensity, which might provide a marker of agentic control. An important assumption of this model is that these predictions are generated within the motor system. However, previous studies of sensory attenuation have typically confounded motor-specific perceptual modulation with perceptual effects of stimulus predictability that are not specific to motor action. As a result, these studies cannot unambiguously attribute sensory attenuation to a motor locus. We present a psychophysical experiment on auditory attenuation that avoids this pitfall. Subliminal masked priming of motor actions with compatible prime-target pairs has previously been shown to modulate both reaction times and the explicit feeling of control over action consequences. Here, we demonstrate reduced perceived loudness of tones caused by compatibly primed actions. Importantly, this modulation results from a manipulation of motor processing and is not confounded by stimulus predictability. We discuss our results with respect to theoretical models of the mechanisms underlying sensory attenuation and subliminal motor priming. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nanoscale thermal cross-talk effect on phase-change probe memory.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Wen, Jing; Xiong, Bangshu

2018-05-14

Phase-change probe memory is considered as one of the most promising means for next-generation mass storage devices. However, the achievable storage density of phase-change probe memory is drastically affected by the resulting thermal cross-talk effect while previously lacking of detailed study. Therefore, a three dimensional model that couples electrical, thermal, and phase-change processes of the Ge2Sb2Te5 media is developed, and subsequently deployed to assess the thermal cross-talk effect based on Si/TiN/ Ge2Sb2Te5/diamond-like carbon structure by appropriately tailoring the electro-thermal and geometrical properties of the storage media stack for a variety of external excitations. The modeling results show that the diamond-like carbon capping with a thin thickness, a high electrical conductivity, and a low thermal conductivity is desired to minimize the thermal cross-talk, while the TiN underlayer has a slight impact on the thermal cross-talk. Combining the modeling findings with the previous film deposition experience, an optimized phase-change probe memory architecture is presented, and its capability of providing ultra-high recording density simultaneously with a sufficiently low thermal cross-talk is demonstrated. . © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Language Identification in Short Utterances Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks.

PubMed

Zazo, Ruben; Lozano-Diez, Alicia; Gonzalez-Dominguez, Javier; Toledano, Doroteo T; Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Joaquin

2016-01-01

Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have recently outperformed other state-of-the-art approaches, such as i-vector and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), in automatic Language Identification (LID), particularly when dealing with very short utterances (∼3s). In this contribution we present an open-source, end-to-end, LSTM RNN system running on limited computational resources (a single GPU) that outperforms a reference i-vector system on a subset of the NIST Language Recognition Evaluation (8 target languages, 3s task) by up to a 26%. This result is in line with previously published research using proprietary LSTM implementations and huge computational resources, which made these former results hardly reproducible. Further, we extend those previous experiments modeling unseen languages (out of set, OOS, modeling), which is crucial in real applications. Results show that a LSTM RNN with OOS modeling is able to detect these languages and generalizes robustly to unseen OOS languages. Finally, we also analyze the effect of even more limited test data (from 2.25s to 0.1s) proving that with as little as 0.5s an accuracy of over 50% can be achieved.

Language Identification in Short Utterances Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Zazo, Ruben; Lozano-Diez, Alicia; Gonzalez-Dominguez, Javier; T. Toledano, Doroteo; Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Joaquin

2016-01-01

Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have recently outperformed other state-of-the-art approaches, such as i-vector and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), in automatic Language Identification (LID), particularly when dealing with very short utterances (∼3s). In this contribution we present an open-source, end-to-end, LSTM RNN system running on limited computational resources (a single GPU) that outperforms a reference i-vector system on a subset of the NIST Language Recognition Evaluation (8 target languages, 3s task) by up to a 26%. This result is in line with previously published research using proprietary LSTM implementations and huge computational resources, which made these former results hardly reproducible. Further, we extend those previous experiments modeling unseen languages (out of set, OOS, modeling), which is crucial in real applications. Results show that a LSTM RNN with OOS modeling is able to detect these languages and generalizes robustly to unseen OOS languages. Finally, we also analyze the effect of even more limited test data (from 2.25s to 0.1s) proving that with as little as 0.5s an accuracy of over 50% can be achieved. PMID:26824467

Predicting survival in AIDS: refining the model.

PubMed

Hutchinson, S J; Brettle, R P; Gore, S M

1997-11-01

We tested the validity of a previously-published AIDS staging system by examining AIDS-defining diseases (ADDs) and CD4 counts as prognostic factors for survival of the 248 AIDS patients in the Edinburgh City Hospital Cohort, of whom 56% were injecting drug-users (IDUs). Cox regression was used to model the proportionality of risk of death as the CD4 count declined and more ADDs were experienced, and dependence upon post-AIDS treatment. Using the system of Mocroft et al. (Lancet 1995; 346:12-17) to grade severity, our data were well enough modelled, but we suggest: (i) regrading of HIV dementia (RR 3.9, 95% CI 2.5-6.0), mainly attributed to the drug users, to a very severe ADD; (ii) reduction in risk from zidovudine (RR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-1.0) during AIDS follow-up for patients starting treatment at or after AIDS diagnosis; (iii) improved management of first mild ADDs (from 1987-89 to 1994-95: 40% reduction in IDUs appearing with mild index diseases, and an approximate three-fold reduction in risk associated with a mild ADD). This study supports previous findings on the significance of ADDs and lowest CD4 count in predicting the lifetime of AIDS patients.

Developing Enhanced Blood–Brain Barrier Permeability Models: Integrating External Bio-Assay Data in QSAR Modeling

PubMed Central

Wang, Wenyi; Kim, Marlene T.; Sedykh, Alexander

2015-01-01

Purpose Experimental Blood–Brain Barrier (BBB) permeability models for drug molecules are expensive and time-consuming. As alternative methods, several traditional Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models have been developed previously. In this study, we aimed to improve the predictivity of traditional QSAR BBB permeability models by employing relevant public bio-assay data in the modeling process. Methods We compiled a BBB permeability database consisting of 439 unique compounds from various resources. The database was split into a modeling set of 341 compounds and a validation set of 98 compounds. Consensus QSAR modeling workflow was employed on the modeling set to develop various QSAR models. A five-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate the developed models, and the resulting models were used to predict the external validation set compounds. Furthermore, we used previously published membrane transporter models to generate relevant transporter profiles for target compounds. The transporter profiles were used as additional biological descriptors to develop hybrid QSAR BBB models. Results The consensus QSAR models have R2=0.638 for fivefold cross-validation and R2=0.504 for external validation. The consensus model developed by pooling chemical and transporter descriptors showed better predictivity (R2=0.646 for five-fold cross-validation and R2=0.526 for external validation). Moreover, several external bio-assays that correlate with BBB permeability were identified using our automatic profiling tool. Conclusions The BBB permeability models developed in this study can be useful for early evaluation of new compounds (e.g., new drug candidates). The combination of chemical and biological descriptors shows a promising direction to improve the current traditional QSAR models. PMID:25862462

Cortico-striatal language pathways dynamically adjust for syntactic complexity: A computational study.

PubMed

Szalisznyó, Krisztina; Silverstein, David; Teichmann, Marc; Duffau, Hugues; Smits, Anja

2017-01-01

A growing body of literature supports a key role of fronto-striatal circuits in language perception. It is now known that the striatum plays a role in engaging attentional resources and linguistic rule computation while also serving phonological short-term memory capabilities. The ventral semantic and the dorsal phonological stream dichotomy assumed for spoken language processing also seems to play a role in cortico-striatal perception. Based on recent studies that correlate deep Broca-striatal pathways with complex syntax performance, we used a previously developed computational model of frontal-striatal syntax circuits and hypothesized that different parallel language pathways may contribute to canonical and non-canonical sentence comprehension separately. We modified and further analyzed a thematic role assignment task and corresponding reservoir computing model of language circuits, as previously developed by Dominey and coworkers. We examined the models performance under various parameter regimes, by influencing how fast the presented language input decays and altering the temporal dynamics of activated word representations. This enabled us to quantify canonical and non-canonical sentence comprehension abilities. The modeling results suggest that separate cortico-cortical and cortico-striatal circuits may be recruited differently for processing syntactically more difficult and less complicated sentences. Alternatively, a single circuit would need to dynamically and adaptively adjust to syntactic complexity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Consoer et al PFOS dataset

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This ScienceHub entry was developed for the published paper: Consoer et al., 2016, Toxicokinetics of perfluorooctane sulfonate in rainow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 35:717-727. Individual rainbow trout were exposed to PFOS by bolus injection (elimination studies) or by adding PFOS to incoming water (branchial uptake studies). The trout were fitted with indwelling catheters and urinary cannulae to permit periodic collection of blood and urine. Additional sampling was conducted to evaluate PFOS uptake from and elimination to respired water. Data obtained from each fish was evaluated using a clearance-volume pharmacokinetic model. Modeled kinetic parameters were then averaged to develop summary statistics which were used as a basis for interpreting modeled results and making comparisons to a previous study of rainbow trout exposed to perfluorooctanoate (PFOA; Consoer et al., 2014, Aquat. Toxicol. 156:65-73). The results of this study, combined with that of the previous PFOA study, suggest that PFOA is a substrate for renal transporters in fish while glomerular filtration alone may be sufficient to explain the observed renal elimination of PFOS. These findings demonstrate that models developed to predict the bioaccumulation of perfluoroalkyl acids by fish must account for differences in renal clearance of individual compounds.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Consoer, D., A. Hoffman , P. Fitzsimmons , P. Kosia

Basal glycogenolysis in mouse skeletal muscle: in vitro model predicts in vivo fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambeth, Melissa J.; Kushmerick, Martin J.; Marcinek, David J.; Conley, Kevin E.

2002-01-01

A previously published mammalian kinetic model of skeletal muscle glycogenolysis, consisting of literature in vitro parameters, was modified by substituting mouse specific Vmax values. The model demonstrates that glycogen breakdown to lactate is under ATPase control. Our criteria to test whether in vitro parameters could reproduce in vivo dynamics was the ability of the model to fit phosphocreatine (PCr) and inorganic phosphate (Pi) dynamic NMR data from ischemic basal mouse hindlimbs and predict biochemically-assayed lactate concentrations. Fitting was accomplished by optimizing four parameters--the ATPase rate coefficient, fraction of activated glycogen phosphorylase, and the equilibrium constants of creatine kinase and adenylate kinase (due to the absence of pH in the model). The optimized parameter values were physiologically reasonable, the resultant model fit the [PCr] and [Pi] timecourses well, and the model predicted the final measured lactate concentration. This result demonstrates that additional features of in vivo enzyme binding are not necessary for quantitative description of glycogenolytic dynamics.

Protocols for Molecular Modeling with Rosetta3 and RosettaScripts

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Previously, we published an article providing an overview of the Rosetta suite of biomacromolecular modeling software and a series of step-by-step tutorials [Kaufmann, K. W., et al. (2010) Biochemistry 49, 2987–2998]. The overwhelming positive response to this publication we received motivates us to here share the next iteration of these tutorials that feature de novo folding, comparative modeling, loop construction, protein docking, small molecule docking, and protein design. This updated and expanded set of tutorials is needed, as since 2010 Rosetta has been fully redesigned into an object-oriented protein modeling program Rosetta3. Notable improvements include a substantially improved energy function, an XML-like language termed “RosettaScripts” for flexibly specifying modeling task, new analysis tools, the addition of the TopologyBroker to control conformational sampling, and support for multiple templates in comparative modeling. Rosetta’s ability to model systems with symmetric proteins, membrane proteins, noncanonical amino acids, and RNA has also been greatly expanded and improved. PMID:27490953

Abelian F-theory models with charge-3 and charge-4 matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghuram, Nikhil

2018-05-01

This paper analyzes U(1) F-theory models admitting matter with charges q = 3 and 4. First, we systematically derive a q = 3 construction that generalizes the previous q = 3 examples. We argue that U(1) symmetries can be tuned through a procedure reminiscent of the SU( N ) and Sp( N ) tuning process. For models with q = 3 matter, the components of the generating section vanish to orders higher than 1 at the charge-3 matter loci. As a result, the Weierstrass models can contain non-UFD structure and thereby deviate from the standard Morrison-Park form. Techniques used to tune SU( N ) models on singular divisors allow us to determine the non-UFD structures and derive the q = 3 tuning from scratch. We also obtain a class of a q=4 models by deforming a prior U(1) × U(1) construction. To the author's knowledge, this is the first published F-theory example with charge-4 matter. Finally, we discuss some conjectures regarding models with charges larger than 4.

Modelling the behaviour of uranium-series radionuclides in soils and plants taking into account seasonal variations in soil hydrology.

PubMed

Pérez-Sánchez, D; Thorne, M C

2014-05-01

In a previous paper, a mathematical model for the behaviour of (79)Se in soils and plants was described. Subsequently, a review has been published relating to the behaviour of (238)U-series radionuclides in soils and plants. Here, we bring together those two strands of work to describe a new mathematical model of the behaviour of (238)U-series radionuclides entering soils in solution and their uptake by plants. Initial studies with the model that are reported here demonstrate that it is a powerful tool for exploring the behaviour of this decay chain or subcomponents of it in soil-plant systems under different hydrological regimes. In particular, it permits studies of the degree to which secular equilibrium assumptions are appropriate when modelling this decay chain. Further studies will be undertaken and reported separately examining sensitivities of model results to input parameter values and also applying the model to sites contaminated with (238)U-series radionuclides. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RADON CONCENTRATION TIME SERIES MODELING AND APPLICATION DISCUSSION.

PubMed

Stránský, V; Thinová, L

2017-11-01

In the year 2010 a continual radon measurement was established at Mladeč Caves in the Czech Republic using a continual radon monitor RADIM3A. In order to model radon time series in the years 2010-15, the Box-Jenkins Methodology, often used in econometrics, was applied. Because of the behavior of radon concentrations (RCs), a seasonal integrated, autoregressive moving averages model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) has been chosen to model the measured time series. This model uses the time series seasonality, previously acquired values and delayed atmospheric parameters, to forecast RC. The developed model for RC time series is called regARIMA(5,1,3). Model residuals could be retrospectively compared with seismic evidence of local or global earthquakes, which occurred during the RCs measurement. This technique enables us to asses if continuously measured RC could serve an earthquake precursor. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A selection model for accounting for publication bias in a full network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mavridis, Dimitris; Welton, Nicky J; Sutton, Alex; Salanti, Georgia

2014-12-30

Copas and Shi suggested a selection model to explore the potential impact of publication bias via sensitivity analysis based on assumptions for the probability of publication of trials conditional on the precision of their results. Chootrakool et al. extended this model to three-arm trials but did not fully account for the implications of the consistency assumption, and their model is difficult to generalize for complex network structures with more than three treatments. Fitting these selection models within a frequentist setting requires maximization of a complex likelihood function, and identification problems are common. We have previously presented a Bayesian implementation of the selection model when multiple treatments are compared with a common reference treatment. We now present a general model suitable for complex, full network meta-analysis that accounts for consistency when adjusting results for publication bias. We developed a design-by-treatment selection model to describe the mechanism by which studies with different designs (sets of treatments compared in a trial) and precision may be selected for publication. We fit the model in a Bayesian setting because it avoids the numerical problems encountered in the frequentist setting, it is generalizable with respect to the number of treatments and study arms, and it provides a flexible framework for sensitivity analysis using external knowledge. Our model accounts for the additional uncertainty arising from publication bias more successfully compared to the standard Copas model or its previous extensions. We illustrate the methodology using a published triangular network for the failure of vascular graft or arterial patency. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bias and inference from misspecified mixed-effect models in stepped wedge trial analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, Jennifer A; Fielding, Katherine L; Davey, Calum; Aiken, Alexander M; Hargreaves, James R; Hayes, Richard J

2017-10-15

Many stepped wedge trials (SWTs) are analysed by using a mixed-effect model with a random intercept and fixed effects for the intervention and time periods (referred to here as the standard model). However, it is not known whether this model is robust to misspecification. We simulated SWTs with three groups of clusters and two time periods; one group received the intervention during the first period and two groups in the second period. We simulated period and intervention effects that were either common-to-all or varied-between clusters. Data were analysed with the standard model or with additional random effects for period effect or intervention effect. In a second simulation study, we explored the weight given to within-cluster comparisons by simulating a larger intervention effect in the group of the trial that experienced both the control and intervention conditions and applying the three analysis models described previously. Across 500 simulations, we computed bias and confidence interval coverage of the estimated intervention effect. We found up to 50% bias in intervention effect estimates when period or intervention effects varied between clusters and were treated as fixed effects in the analysis. All misspecified models showed undercoverage of 95% confidence intervals, particularly the standard model. A large weight was given to within-cluster comparisons in the standard model. In the SWTs simulated here, mixed-effect models were highly sensitive to departures from the model assumptions, which can be explained by the high dependence on within-cluster comparisons. Trialists should consider including a random effect for time period in their SWT analysis model. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

New Methodology for Estimating Fuel Economy by Vehicle Class

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, Shih-Miao; Dabbs, Kathryn; Hwang, Ho-Ling

2011-01-01

Office of Highway Policy Information to develop a new methodology to generate annual estimates of average fuel efficiency and number of motor vehicles registered by vehicle class for Table VM-1 of the Highway Statistics annual publication. This paper describes the new methodology developed under this effort and compares the results of the existing manual method and the new systematic approach. The methodology developed under this study takes a two-step approach. First, the preliminary fuel efficiency rates are estimated based on vehicle stock models for different classes of vehicles. Then, a reconciliation model is used to adjust the initial fuel consumptionmore » rates from the vehicle stock models and match the VMT information for each vehicle class and the reported total fuel consumption. This reconciliation model utilizes a systematic approach that produces documentable and reproducible results. The basic framework utilizes a mathematical programming formulation to minimize the deviations between the fuel economy estimates published in the previous year s Highway Statistics and the results from the vehicle stock models, subject to the constraint that fuel consumptions for different vehicle classes must sum to the total fuel consumption estimate published in Table MF-21 of the current year Highway Statistics. The results generated from this new approach provide a smoother time series for the fuel economies by vehicle class. It also utilizes the most up-to-date and best available data with sound econometric models to generate MPG estimates by vehicle class.« less

Modeling radiation belt dynamics using a 3-D layer method code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Ma, Q.; Tao, X.; Zhang, Y.; Teng, S.; Albert, J. M.; Chan, A. A.; Li, W.; Ni, B.; Lu, Q.; Wang, S.

2017-08-01

A new 3-D diffusion code using a recently published layer method has been developed to analyze radiation belt electron dynamics. The code guarantees the positivity of the solution even when mixed diffusion terms are included. Unlike most of the previous codes, our 3-D code is developed directly in equatorial pitch angle (α0), momentum (p), and L shell coordinates; this eliminates the need to transform back and forth between (α0,p) coordinates and adiabatic invariant coordinates. Using (α0,p,L) is also convenient for direct comparison with satellite data. The new code has been validated by various numerical tests, and we apply the 3-D code to model the rapid electron flux enhancement following the geomagnetic storm on 17 March 2013, which is one of the Geospace Environment Modeling Focus Group challenge events. An event-specific global chorus wave model, an AL-dependent statistical plasmaspheric hiss wave model, and a recently published radial diffusion coefficient formula from Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) statistics are used. The simulation results show good agreement with satellite observations, in general, supporting the scenario that the rapid enhancement of radiation belt electron flux for this event results from an increased level of the seed population by radial diffusion, with subsequent acceleration by chorus waves. Our results prove that the layer method can be readily used to model global radiation belt dynamics in three dimensions.

Retracted articles in surgery journals. What are surgeons doing wrong?

PubMed

Cassão, Bruna Dell'Acqua; Herbella, Fernando A M; Schlottmann, Francisco; Patti, Marco G

2018-06-01

Retraction of previously published scientific articles is an important mechanism to preserve the integrity of scientific work. This study analyzed retractions of previously published articles from surgery journals. We searched for retracted articles in the 100 surgery journals with the highest SJR2 indicator grades. We found 130 retracted articles in 49 journals (49%). Five or more retracted articles were published in 8 journals (8%). The mean time between publication and retraction was 26 months (range 1 to 158 months). The United States, China, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom accounted for more than 3 out of 4 of the retracted articles. The greatest number of retractions came from manuscripts about orthopedics and traumatology, general surgery, anesthesiology, cardiothoracic surgery, and plastic surgery. Nonsurgeons were responsible for 16% of retractions in these surgery journals. The main reasons for retraction were duplicate publication (42%), plagiarism (16%), absence of proven integrity of the study (14%), incorrect data (13%), data published without authorization (12%), violation of research ethics (11%), documented fraud (11%), request of an author(s) (5%), and unknown (3%). In 25% of the retracted articles, other publications by the same authors also had been retracted. Retraction of published articles does not occur frequently in surgery journals. Some form of scientific misconduct was present in the majority of retractions, especially duplication of publication and plagiarism. Retractions of previously published articles were most frequent from countries with the greatest number of publications; some authors showed recidivism. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction and analysis of beta-turns in proteins by support vector machine.

PubMed

Pham, Tho Hoan; Satou, Kenji; Ho, Tu Bao

2003-01-01

Tight turn has long been recognized as one of the three important features of proteins after the alpha-helix and beta-sheet. Tight turns play an important role in globular proteins from both the structural and functional points of view. More than 90% tight turns are beta-turns. Analysis and prediction of beta-turns in particular and tight turns in general are very useful for the design of new molecules such as drugs, pesticides, and antigens. In this paper, we introduce a support vector machine (SVM) approach to prediction and analysis of beta-turns. We have investigated two aspects of applying SVM to the prediction and analysis of beta-turns. First, we developed a new SVM method, called BTSVM, which predicts beta-turns of a protein from its sequence. The prediction results on the dataset of 426 non-homologous protein chains by sevenfold cross-validation technique showed that our method is superior to the other previous methods. Second, we analyzed how amino acid positions support (or prevent) the formation of beta-turns based on the "multivariable" classification model of a linear SVM. This model is more general than the other ones of previous statistical methods. Our analysis results are more comprehensive and easier to use than previously published analysis results.

37 CFR 381.10 - Cost of living adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... determined by the Consumer Price Index (all consumers, all items) during the period from the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2006, to the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2007... the cost of living during the period from the most recent index published prior to the previous notice...

37 CFR 253.10 - Cost of living adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... determined by the Consumer Price Index (all consumers, all items) during the period from the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2002, to the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2003... cost of living during the period from the most recent index published prior to the previous notice, to...

37 CFR 381.10 - Cost of living adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... determined by the Consumer Price Index (all consumers, all items) during the period from the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2012, to the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2013... change in the cost of living during the period from the most recent index published prior to the previous...

37 CFR 381.10 - Cost of living adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... determined by the Consumer Price Index (all consumers, all items) during the period from the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2006, to the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2007... the cost of living during the period from the most recent index published prior to the previous notice...

37 CFR 381.10 - Cost of living adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... determined by the Consumer Price Index (all consumers, all items) during the period from the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2012, to the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2013... change in the cost of living during the period from the most recent index published prior to the previous...

37 CFR 253.10 - Cost of living adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... determined by the Consumer Price Index (all consumers, all items) during the period from the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2002, to the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2003... cost of living during the period from the most recent index published prior to the previous notice, to...

37 CFR 253.10 - Cost of living adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... determined by the Consumer Price Index (all consumers, all items) during the period from the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2002, to the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2003... cost of living during the period from the most recent index published prior to the previous notice, to...

37 CFR 253.10 - Cost of living adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... determined by the Consumer Price Index (all consumers, all items) during the period from the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2002, to the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2003... cost of living during the period from the most recent index published prior to the previous notice, to...

37 CFR 381.10 - Cost of living adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... determined by the Consumer Price Index (all consumers, all items) during the period from the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2006, to the most recent Index published prior to December 1, 2007... the cost of living during the period from the most recent index published prior to the previous notice...

Preliminary assessment of facial soft tissue thickness utilizing three-dimensional computed tomography models of living individuals.

PubMed

Parks, Connie L; Richard, Adam H; Monson, Keith L

2014-04-01

Facial approximation is the technique of developing a representation of the face from the skull of an unknown individual. Facial approximation relies heavily on average craniofacial soft tissue depths. For more than a century, researchers have employed a broad array of tissue depth collection methodologies, a practice which has resulted in a lack of standardization in craniofacial soft tissue depth research. To combat such methodological inconsistencies, Stephan and Simpson 2008 [15] examined and synthesized a large number of previously published soft tissue depth studies. Their comprehensive meta-analysis produced a pooled dataset of averaged tissue depths and a simplified methodology, which the researchers suggest be utilized as a minimum standard protocol for future craniofacial soft tissue depth research. The authors of the present paper collected craniofacial soft tissue depths using three-dimensional models generated from computed tomography scans of living males and females of four self-identified ancestry groups from the United States ranging in age from 18 to 62 years. This paper assesses the differences between: (i) the pooled mean tissue depth values from the sample utilized in this paper and those published by Stephan 2012 [21] and (ii) the mean tissue depth values of two demographically similar subsets of the sample utilized in this paper and those published by Rhine and Moore 1984 [16]. Statistical test results indicate that the tissue depths collected from the sample evaluated in this paper are significantly and consistently larger than those published by Stephan 2012 [21]. Although a lack of published variance data by Rhine and Moore 1984 [16] precluded a direct statistical assessment, a substantive difference was also concluded. Further, the dataset presented in this study is representative of modern American adults and is, therefore, appropriate for use in constructing contemporary facial approximations. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Multiple abiotic stimuli are integrated in the regulation of rice gene expression under field conditions.

PubMed

Plessis, Anne; Hafemeister, Christoph; Wilkins, Olivia; Gonzaga, Zennia Jean; Meyer, Rachel Sarah; Pires, Inês; Müller, Christian; Septiningsih, Endang M; Bonneau, Richard; Purugganan, Michael

2015-11-26

Plants rely on transcriptional dynamics to respond to multiple climatic fluctuations and contexts in nature. We analyzed the genome-wide gene expression patterns of rice (Oryza sativa) growing in rainfed and irrigated fields during two distinct tropical seasons and determined simple linear models that relate transcriptomic variation to climatic fluctuations. These models combine multiple environmental parameters to account for patterns of expression in the field of co-expressed gene clusters. We examined the similarities of our environmental models between tropical and temperate field conditions, using previously published data. We found that field type and macroclimate had broad impacts on transcriptional responses to environmental fluctuations, especially for genes involved in photosynthesis and development. Nevertheless, variation in solar radiation and temperature at the timescale of hours had reproducible effects across environmental contexts. These results provide a basis for broad-based predictive modeling of plant gene expression in the field.

Approaches to modelling uranium (VI) adsorption on natural mineral assemblages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waite, T.D.; Davis, J.A.; Fenton, B.R.; Payne, T.E.

2000-01-01

Component additivity (CA) and generalised composite (GC) approaches to deriving a suitable surface complexation model for description of U(VI) adsorption to natural mineral assemblages are pursued in this paper with good success. A single, ferrihydrite-like component is found to reasonably describe uranyl uptake to a number of kaolinitic iron-rich natural substrates at pH > 4 in the CA approach with previously published information on nature of surface complexes, acid-base properties of surface sites and electrostatic effects used in the model. The GC approach, in which little pre-knowledge about generic surface sites is assumed, gives even better fits and would appear to be a method of particular strength for application in areas such as performance assessment provided the model is developed in a careful, stepwise manner with simplicity and goodness of fit as the major criteria for acceptance.

Virtual-optical information security system based on public key infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Xiang; Zhang, Peng; Cai, Lilong; Niu, Hanben

2005-01-01

A virtual-optical based encryption model with the aid of public key infrastructure (PKI) is presented in this paper. The proposed model employs a hybrid architecture in which our previously published encryption method based on virtual-optics scheme (VOS) can be used to encipher and decipher data while an asymmetric algorithm, for example RSA, is applied for enciphering and deciphering the session key(s). The whole information security model is run under the framework of international standard ITU-T X.509 PKI, which is on basis of public-key cryptography and digital signatures. This PKI-based VOS security approach has additional features like confidentiality, authentication, and integrity for the purpose of data encryption under the environment of network. Numerical experiments prove the effectiveness of the method. The security of proposed model is briefly analyzed by examining some possible attacks from the viewpoint of a cryptanalysis.

Improved physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for oral exposures to chromium in mice, rats, and humans to address temporal variation and sensitive populations.

PubMed

Kirman, C R; Suh, M; Proctor, D M; Hays, S M

2017-06-15

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] in mice, rats, and humans developed previously (Kirman et al., 2012, 2013), was updated to reflect an improved understanding of the toxicokinetics of the gastrointestinal tract following oral exposures. Improvements were made to: (1) the reduction model, which describes the pH-dependent reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) in the gastrointestinal tract under both fasted and fed states; (2) drinking water pattern simulations, to better describe dosimetry in rodents under the conditions of the NTP cancer bioassay; and (3) parameterize the model to characterize potentially sensitive human populations. Important species differences, sources of non-linear toxicokinetics, and human variation are identified and discussed within the context of human health risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mean glandular dose coefficients (D(g)N) for x-ray spectra used in contemporary breast imaging systems.

PubMed

Nosratieh, Anita; Hernandez, Andrew; Shen, Sam Z; Yaffe, Martin J; Seibert, J Anthony; Boone, John M

2015-09-21

To develop tables of normalized glandular dose coefficients D(g)N for a range of anode-filter combinations and tube voltages used in contemporary breast imaging systems. Previously published mono-energetic D(g)N values were used with various spectra to mathematically compute D(g)N coefficients. The tungsten anode spectra from TASMICS were used; molybdenum and rhodium anode-spectra were generated using MCNPX Monte Carlo code. The spectra were filtered with various thicknesses of Al, Rh, Mo or Cu. An initial half value layer (HVL) calculation was made using the anode and filter material. A range of the HVL values was produced with the addition of small thicknesses of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) as a surrogate for the breast compression paddle, to produce a range of HVL values at each tube voltage. Using a spectral weighting method, D(g)N coefficients for the generated spectra were calculated for breast glandular densities of 0%, 12.5%, 25%, 37.5%, 50% and 100% for a range of compressed breast thicknesses from 3 to 8 cm. Eleven tables of normalized glandular dose (D(g)N) coefficients were produced for the following anode/filter combinations: W + 50 μm Ag, W + 500 μm Al, W + 700 μm Al, W + 200 μm Cu, W + 300 μm Cu, W + 50 μm Rh, Mo + 400 μm Cu, Mo + 30 μm Mo, Mo + 25 μm Rh, Rh + 400 μm Cu and Rh + 25 μm Rh. Where possible, these results were compared to previously published D(g)N values and were found to be on average less than 2% different than previously reported values.Over 200 pages of D(g)N coefficients were computed for modeled x-ray system spectra that are used in a number of new breast imaging applications. The reported values were found to be in excellent agreement when compared to published values.

Mean Glandular dose coefficients (DgN) for x-ray spectra used in contemporary breast imaging systems

PubMed Central

Nosratieh, Anita; Hernandez, Andrew; Shen, Sam Z.; Yaffe, Martin J.; Seibert, J. Anthony; Boone, John M.

2015-01-01

Purpose To develop tables of normalized glandular dose coefficients DgN for a range of anode–filter combinations and tube voltages used in contemporary breast imaging systems. Methods Previously published mono-energetic DgN values were used with various spectra to mathematically compute DgN coefficients. The tungsten anode spectra from TASMICS were used; Molybdenum and Rhodium anode-spectra were generated using MCNPx Monte Carlo code. The spectra were filtered with various thicknesses of Al, Rh, Mo or Cu. An initial HVL calculation was made using the anode and filter material. A range of the HVL values was produced with the addition of small thicknesses of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) as a surrogate for the breast compression paddle, to produce a range of HVL values at each tube voltage. Using a spectral weighting method, DgN coefficients for the generated spectra were calculated for breast glandular densities of 0%, 12.5%, 25%, 37.5%, 50% and 100% for a range of compressed breast thicknesses from 3 to 8 cm. Results Eleven tables of normalized glandular dose (DgN) coefficients were produced for the following anode/filter combinations: W + 50 μm Ag, W + 500 μm Al, W + 700 μm Al, W + 200 μm Cu, W + 300 μm Cu, W + 50 μm Rh, Mo + 400 μm Cu, Mo + 30 μm Mo, Mo + 25 μm Rh, Rh + 400 μm Cu and Rh + 25 μm Rh. Where possible, these results were compared to previously published DgN values and were found to be on average less than 2% different than previously reported values. Conclusion Over 200-pages of DgN coefficients were computed for modeled x-ray system spectra that are used in a number of new breast imaging applications. The reported values were found to be in excellent agreement when compared to published values. PMID:26348995

Training loads and injury risk in Australian football-differing acute: chronic workload ratios influence match injury risk.

PubMed

Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E

2017-08-01

(1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2-9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14-35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R 2 ). The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18-24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R 2 =0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R 2 =0.76-0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98-2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

(Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruckert, K. L.; Guan, Y.; Shaffer, G.; Forest, C. E.; Keller, K.

2015-12-01

(Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level ChangesKelsey L. Ruckert1*, Yawen Guan2, Chris E. Forest1,3,7, Gary Shaffer 4,5,6, and Klaus Keller1,7,81 Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 2 Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 3 Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 4 GAIA_Antarctica, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile 5 Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones, La Serena, Chile 6 Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark 7 Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 8 Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA * Corresponding author. E-mail klr324@psu.eduUnderstanding and projecting future sea-level changes poses nontrivial challenges. Sea-level changes are driven primarily by changes in the density of seawater as well as changes in the size of glaciers and ice sheets. Previous studies have demonstrated that a key source of uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections is the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to warming temperatures. Here we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple model of the Antarctic ice sheet over a hindcast period from the last interglacial period to the present. We apply and compare a range of (pre-) calibration methods, including a Bayesian approach that accounts for heteroskedasticity. We compare the model hindcasts and projections for different levels of model complexity and calibration methods. We compare the projections with the upper bounds from previous studies and find our projections have a narrower range in 2100. Furthermore we discuss the implications for the design of climate risk management strategies.

Development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand.

PubMed

Wilson, R; Abbott, J H

2018-04-01

To describe the construction and preliminary validation of a new population-based microsimulation model developed to analyse the health and economic burden and cost-effectiveness of treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in New Zealand (NZ). We developed the New Zealand Management of Osteoarthritis (NZ-MOA) model, a discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of the natural history of radiographic knee OA. In this article, we report on the model structure, derivation of input data, validation of baseline model parameters against external data sources, and validation of model outputs by comparison of the predicted population health loss with previous estimates. The NZ-MOA model simulates both the structural progression of radiographic knee OA and the stochastic development of multiple disease symptoms. Input parameters were sourced from NZ population-based data where possible, and from international sources where NZ-specific data were not available. The predicted distributions of structural OA severity and health utility detriments associated with OA were externally validated against other sources of evidence, and uncertainty resulting from key input parameters was quantified. The resulting lifetime and current population health-loss burden was consistent with estimates of previous studies. The new NZ-MOA model provides reliable estimates of the health loss associated with knee OA in the NZ population. The model structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of a range of potential treatments, and will be used in future work to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of recommended interventions within the NZ healthcare system. Copyright © 2018 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-time monitoring of high-gravity corn mash fermentation using in situ raman spectroscopy.

PubMed

Gray, Steven R; Peretti, Steven W; Lamb, H Henry

2013-06-01

In situ Raman spectroscopy was employed for real-time monitoring of simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) of corn mash by an industrial strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. An accurate univariate calibration model for ethanol was developed based on the very strong 883 cm(-1) C-C stretching band. Multivariate partial least squares (PLS) calibration models for total starch, dextrins, maltotriose, maltose, glucose, and ethanol were developed using data from eight batch fermentations and validated using predictions for a separate batch. The starch, ethanol, and dextrins models showed significant prediction improvement when the calibration data were divided into separate high- and low-concentration sets. Collinearity between the ethanol and starch models was avoided by excluding regions containing strong ethanol peaks from the starch model and, conversely, excluding regions containing strong saccharide peaks from the ethanol model. The two-set calibration models for starch (R(2)  = 0.998, percent error = 2.5%) and ethanol (R(2)  = 0.999, percent error = 2.1%) provide more accurate predictions than any previously published spectroscopic models. Glucose, maltose, and maltotriose are modeled to accuracy comparable to previous work on less complex fermentation processes. Our results demonstrate that Raman spectroscopy is capable of real time in situ monitoring of a complex industrial biomass fermentation. To our knowledge, this is the first PLS-based chemometric modeling of corn mash fermentation under typical industrial conditions, and the first Raman-based monitoring of a fermentation process with glucose, oligosaccharides and polysaccharides present. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Parents' work patterns and adolescent mental health.

PubMed

Dockery, Alfred; Li, Jianghong; Kendall, Garth

2009-02-01

Previous research demonstrates that non-standard work schedules undermine the stability of marriage and reduce family cohesiveness. Limited research has investigated the effects of parents working non-standard schedules on children's health and wellbeing and no published Australian studies have addressed this important issue. This paper contributes to bridging this knowledge gap by focusing on adolescents aged 15-20 years and by including sole parent families which have been omitted in previous research, using panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. Multilevel linear regression models are estimated to analyse the association between parental work schedules and hours of work and measures of adolescents' mental health derived from the SF-36 Health Survey. Evidence of negative impacts of parents working non-standard hours upon adolescent wellbeing is found to exist primarily within sole parent families.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayliss, Daniel D. R.; Sackett, Penny D.; Winn, Joshua N.

We present high-precision radial velocity observations of WASP-17 throughout the transit of its close-in giant planet, using the MIKE spectrograph on the 6.5 m Magellan Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory. By modeling the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect, we find the sky-projected spin-orbit angle to be {lambda} = 167.4 {+-} 11.2 deg. This independently confirms the previous finding that WASP-17b is on a retrograde orbit, suggesting it underwent migration via a mechanism other than just the gravitational interaction between the planet and the disk. Interestingly, our result for {lambda} differs by 45 {+-} 13 deg from the previously announced value, and we alsomore » find that the spectroscopic transit occurs 15 {+-} 5 minutes earlier than expected, based on the published ephemeris. The discrepancy in the ephemeris highlights the need for contemporaneous spectroscopic and photometric transit observations whenever possible.« less

Fractional poisson--a simple dose-response model for human norovirus.

PubMed

Messner, Michael J; Berger, Philip; Nappier, Sharon P

2014-10-01

This study utilizes old and new Norovirus (NoV) human challenge data to model the dose-response relationship for human NoV infection. The combined data set is used to update estimates from a previously published beta-Poisson dose-response model that includes parameters for virus aggregation and for a beta-distribution that describes variable susceptibility among hosts. The quality of the beta-Poisson model is examined and a simpler model is proposed. The new model (fractional Poisson) characterizes hosts as either perfectly susceptible or perfectly immune, requiring a single parameter (the fraction of perfectly susceptible hosts) in place of the two-parameter beta-distribution. A second parameter is included to account for virus aggregation in the same fashion as it is added to the beta-Poisson model. Infection probability is simply the product of the probability of nonzero exposure (at least one virus or aggregate is ingested) and the fraction of susceptible hosts. The model is computationally simple and appears to be well suited to the data from the NoV human challenge studies. The model's deviance is similar to that of the beta-Poisson, but with one parameter, rather than two. As a result, the Akaike information criterion favors the fractional Poisson over the beta-Poisson model. At low, environmentally relevant exposure levels (<100), estimation error is small for the fractional Poisson model; however, caution is advised because no subjects were challenged at such a low dose. New low-dose data would be of great value to further clarify the NoV dose-response relationship and to support improved risk assessment for environmentally relevant exposures. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain for the U.S.A.

Laboratory Experiments and Modeling of Pooled NAPL Dissolution in Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copty, N. K.; Sarikurt, D. A.; Gokdemir, C.

2017-12-01

The dissolution of non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) entrapped in porous media is commonly modeled at the continuum scale as the product of a chemical potential and an interphase mass transfer coefficient, the latter expressed in terms of Sherwood correlations that are related to flow and porous media properties. Because of the lack of precise estimates of the interface area separating the NAPL and aqueous phase, numerous studies have lumped the interfacial area into the interphase mass transfer coefficient. In this paper controlled dissolution experiments from a pooled NAPL were conducted. The immobile NAPL mass is placed at the bottom of a flow cell filled with porous media with water flowing on top. Effluent aqueous phase concentrations were measured for a wide range of aqueous phase velocities and for two types of porous media. To interpret the experimental results, a two-dimensional pore network model of the NAPL dissolution was developed. The well-defined geometry of the NAPL-water interface and the observed effluent concentrations were used to compute best-fit mass transfer coefficients and non-lumped Sherwood correlations. Comparing the concentrations predicted with the pore network model to simple previously used one-dimensional analytic solutions indicates that the analytic model which ignores the transverse dispersion can lead to over-estimation of the mass transfer coefficient. The predicted Sherwood correlations are also compared to previously published data and implications on NAPL remediation strategies are discussed.

Non-Fickian dispersion of groundwater age

PubMed Central

Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

2014-01-01

We expand the governing equation of groundwater age to account for non-Fickian dispersive fluxes using continuous random walks. Groundwater age is included as an additional (fifth) dimension on which the volumetric mass density of water is distributed and we follow the classical random walk derivation now in five dimensions. The general solution of the random walk recovers the previous conventional model of age when the low order moments of the transition density functions remain finite at their limits and describes non-Fickian age distributions when the transition densities diverge. Previously published transition densities are then used to show how the added dimension in age affects the governing differential equations. Depending on which transition densities diverge, the resulting models may be nonlocal in time, space, or age and can describe asymptotic or pre-asymptotic dispersion. A joint distribution function of time and age transitions is developed as a conditional probability and a natural result of this is that time and age must always have identical transition rate functions. This implies that a transition density defined for age can substitute for a density in time and this has implications for transport model parameter estimation. We present examples of simulated age distributions from a geologically based, heterogeneous domain that exhibit non-Fickian behavior and show that the non-Fickian model provides better descriptions of the distributions than the Fickian model. PMID:24976651

REMARK checklist elaborated to improve tumor prognostician

Cancer.gov

Experts have elaborated on a previously published checklist of 20 items -- including descriptions of design, methods, and analysis -- that researchers should address when publishing studies of prognostic markers. These markers are indicators that enable d

A model to estimate cost-savings in diabetic foot ulcer prevention efforts.

PubMed

Barshes, Neal R; Saedi, Samira; Wrobel, James; Kougias, Panos; Kundakcioglu, O Erhun; Armstrong, David G

2017-04-01

Sustained efforts at preventing diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) and subsequent leg amputations are sporadic in most health care systems despite the high costs associated with such complications. We sought to estimate effectiveness targets at which cost-savings (i.e. improved health outcomes at decreased total costs) might occur. A Markov model with probabilistic sensitivity analyses was used to simulate the five-year survival, incidence of foot complications, and total health care costs in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people with diabetes. Clinical event and cost estimates were obtained from previously-published trials and studies. A population without previous DFU but with 17% neuropathy and 11% peripheral artery disease (PAD) prevalence was assumed. Primary prevention (PP) was defined as reducing initial DFU incidence. PP was more than 90% likely to provide cost-savings when annual prevention costs are less than $50/person and/or annual DFU incidence is reduced by at least 25%. Efforts directed at patients with diabetes who were at moderate or high risk for DFUs were very likely to provide cost-savings if DFU incidence was decreased by at least 10% and/or the cost was less than $150 per person per year. Low-cost DFU primary prevention efforts producing even small decreases in DFU incidence may provide the best opportunity for cost-savings, especially if focused on patients with neuropathy and/or PAD. Mobile phone-based reminders, self-identification of risk factors (ex. Ipswich touch test), and written brochures may be among such low-cost interventions that should be investigated for cost-savings potential. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Experimental result analysis for scaled model of UiTM tailless blended wing-body (BWB) Baseline 7 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, R. E. M.; Ahmad, A. M.; Latif, Z. A. A.; Saad, R. M.; Kuntjoro, W.

2017-12-01

Blended wing-body (BWB) aircraft having planform configuration similar to those previously researched and published by other researchers does not guarantee that an efficient aerodynamics in term of lift-to-drag ratio can be achieved. In this wind tunnel experimental study, BWB half model is used. The model is also being scaled down to 71.5% from the actual size. Based on the results, the maximum lift coefficient is found to be 0.763 when the angle is at 27.5° after which the model starts to stall. The minimum drag coefficient is 0.014, measured at zero angle of attack. The corrected lift-to-drag ratio (L/D) is 15.9 at angle 7.8°. The scaled model has a big flat surface that surely gives an inaccurate data but the data obtained shall give some insights for future perspective towards the BWB model being tested.

Preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Brandt, Stephen B.

2005-01-01

We conducted a preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model by applying the model to size-at-age data for lake whitefish from northern Lake Michigan. We then compared estimates of gross growth efficiency (GGE) from our bioenergetis model with previously published estimates of GGE for bloater (C. hoyi) in Lake Michigan and for lake whitefish in Quebec. According to our model, the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.075 to 0.02 as age increased from 2 to 5 years. In contrast, the GGE of lake whitefish in Quebec inland waters decreased from 0.12 to 0.05 for the same ages. When our swimming-speed submodel was replaced with a submodel that had been used for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Michigan and an observed predator energy density for Lake Michigan lake whitefish was employed, our model predicted that the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.12 to 0.04 as age increased from 2 to 5 years.

A penalized framework for distributed lag non-linear models.

PubMed

Gasparrini, Antonio; Scheipl, Fabian; Armstrong, Ben; Kenward, Michael G

2017-09-01

Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are a modelling tool for describing potentially non-linear and delayed dependencies. Here, we illustrate an extension of the DLNM framework through the use of penalized splines within generalized additive models (GAM). This extension offers built-in model selection procedures and the possibility of accommodating assumptions on the shape of the lag structure through specific penalties. In addition, this framework includes, as special cases, simpler models previously proposed for linear relationships (DLMs). Alternative versions of penalized DLNMs are compared with each other and with the standard unpenalized version in a simulation study. Results show that this penalized extension to the DLNM class provides greater flexibility and improved inferential properties. The framework exploits recent theoretical developments of GAMs and is implemented using efficient routines within freely available software. Real-data applications are illustrated through two reproducible examples in time series and survival analysis. © 2017 The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

Ozone and daily mortality rate in 21 cities of East Asia: how does season modify the association?

PubMed

Chen, Renjie; Cai, Jing; Meng, Xia; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Samoli, Evangelia; Yang, Xin; Kan, Haidong

2014-10-01

Previous studies in East Asia have revealed that the short-term associations between tropospheric ozone and daily mortality rate were strongest in winter, which is opposite to the findings in North America and Western Europe. Therefore, we investigated the season-varying association between ozone and daily mortality rate in 21 cities of East Asia from 1979 to 2010. Time-series Poisson regression models were used to analyze the association between ozone and daily nonaccidental mortality rate in each city, testing for different temperature lags. The best-fitting model was obtained after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to pool the city-specific estimates. An interquartile-range increase of the moving average concentrations of same-day and previous-day ozone was associated with an increase of 1.44% (95% posterior interval (PI): 1.08%, 1.80%) in daily total mortality rate after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. The corresponding increases were 0.62% (95% PI: 0.08%, 1.16%) in winter, 1.46% (95% PI: 0.89%, 2.03%) in spring, 1.60% (95% PI: 1.03%, 2.17%) in summer, and 1.12% (95% PI: 0.73%, 1.51%) in fall. We found significant associations between short-term exposure to ozone and higher mortality rate in East Asia that varied considerably from season to season with a significant trough in winter. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effects of chronic cocaine, morphine and methamphetamine on the mobility, immobility and stereotyped behaviors in crayfish.

PubMed

Imeh-Nathaniel, Adebobola; Rincon, Natalia; Orfanakos, Vasiliki Bessie; Brechtel, Leanne; Wormack, Leah; Richardson, Erika; Huber, Robert; Nathaniel, Thomas I

2017-08-14

The worth of crayfish as a model system for studies of addiction was not previously recognized because a drug-reward phenomenon had not been documented in this model system. In our previous experiments, we demonstrate that the crayfish natural reward pathways are sensitive to human drugs of abuse. This finding supports crayfish as a suitable model to characterize specific behaviors that are relevant in drug addiction research, and the current study builds on our previous findings. The aim of the present study was to investigate unconditioned neurobehavioral effects of repeated treatment regimens using cocaine, morphine, and methamphetamine for three consecutive days. We analyzed mobility, immobility and characterized stereotypic behaviors following intracardial infusions of 2.0μg/g or 10.0μg/g doses of cocaine, morphine, and methamphetamine for three days. The results showed that systemic cocaine, morphine, and methamphetamine increased mobility at a low dose of 2.0μg/g more effectively than a high dose of 10.0μg/g, while simultaneously showing that the high dose exerted a more prominent effect in increasing immobility. Moreover, systemic cocaine, morphine, and methamphetamine injections have discerning effects towards a group of defined unconditioned stereotyped behavioral patterns associated with each drug, rather than a shared universal behavioral effect. These findings provide insight into the behavioral and pharmacological basis responsible for the unconditioned effects of these drugs in crayfish. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Meta-regression analysis of the effect of trans fatty acids on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

PubMed

Allen, Bruce C; Vincent, Melissa J; Liska, DeAnn; Haber, Lynne T

2016-12-01

We conducted a meta-regression of controlled clinical trial data to investigate quantitatively the relationship between dietary intake of industrial trans fatty acids (iTFA) and increased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Previous regression analyses included insufficient data to determine the nature of the dose response in the low-dose region and have nonetheless assumed a linear relationship between iTFA intake and LDL-C levels. This work contributes to the previous work by 1) including additional studies examining low-dose intake (identified using an evidence mapping procedure); 2) investigating a range of curve shapes, including both linear and nonlinear models; and 3) using Bayesian meta-regression to combine results across trials. We found that, contrary to previous assumptions, the linear model does not acceptably fit the data, while the nonlinear, S-shaped Hill model fits the data well. Based on a conservative estimate of the degree of intra-individual variability in LDL-C (0.1 mmoL/L), as an estimate of a change in LDL-C that is not adverse, a change in iTFA intake of 2.2% of energy intake (%en) (corresponding to a total iTFA intake of 2.2-2.9%en) does not cause adverse effects on LDL-C. The iTFA intake associated with this change in LDL-C is substantially higher than the average iTFA intake (0.5%en). Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The stellar wind velocity function for red supergiants determined in eclipsing binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Imad A.; Stencel, Robert E.

1988-01-01

The potential for direct measurement of the acceleration of stellar winds from the supergiant component of Zeta Aurigae-type binary stars is discussed. The aberration angle of the interaction shock cone centered on the hot star provides a measure of the velocity of the cool star wind at the orbit of the secondary. This is confirmed by direct observations of stellar wind (P Cygni) line profile variations. This velocity is generally smaller than the final (terminal) velocity of the wind, deduced from the P Cygni line profiles. The contrast between these results and previously published supergiant wind models is discussed. The implication on the physics of energy source dissipation predicted in the theoretical models is considered.

Effect of Vandetanib on Andes virus survival in the hamster model of Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.

PubMed

Bird, Brian H; Shrivastava-Ranjan, Punya; Dodd, Kimberly A; Erickson, Bobbie R; Spiropoulou, Christina F

2016-08-01

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a severe disease caused by hantavirus infection of pulmonary microvascular endothelial cells leading to microvascular leakage, pulmonary edema, pleural effusion and high case fatality. Previously, we demonstrated that Andes virus (ANDV) infection caused up-regulation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and concomitant downregulation of the cellular adhesion molecule VE-cadherin leading to increased permeability. Analyses of human HPS-patient sera have further demonstrated increased circulating levels of VEGF. Here we investigate the impact of a small molecule antagonist of the VEGF receptor 2 (VEGFR-2) activation in vitro, and overall impact on survival in the Syrian hamster model of HPS. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Towards a new paleotemperature proxy from reef coral occurrences.

PubMed

Lauchstedt, Andreas; Pandolfi, John M; Kiessling, Wolfgang

2017-09-05

Global mean temperature is thought to have exceeded that of today during the last interglacial episode (LIG, ~ 125,000 yrs b.p.) but robust paleoclimate data are still rare in low latitudes. Occurrence data of tropical reef corals may provide new proxies of low latitude sea-surface temperatures. Using modern reef coral distributions we developed a geographically explicit model of sea surface temperatures. Applying this model to coral occurrence data of the LIG provides a latitudinal U-shaped pattern of temperature anomalies with cooler than modern temperatures around the equator and warmer subtropical climes. Our results agree with previously published estimates of LIG temperatures and suggest a poleward broadening of the habitable zone for reef corals during the LIG.

Modelling toehold-mediated RNA strand displacement.

PubMed

Šulc, Petr; Ouldridge, Thomas E; Romano, Flavio; Doye, Jonathan P K; Louis, Ard A

2015-03-10

We study the thermodynamics and kinetics of an RNA toehold-mediated strand displacement reaction with a recently developed coarse-grained model of RNA. Strand displacement, during which a single strand displaces a different strand previously bound to a complementary substrate strand, is an essential mechanism in active nucleic acid nanotechnology and has also been hypothesized to occur in vivo. We study the rate of displacement reactions as a function of the length of the toehold and temperature and make two experimentally testable predictions: that the displacement is faster if the toehold is placed at the 5' end of the substrate; and that the displacement slows down with increasing temperature for longer toeholds. Copyright © 2015 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Search for dijet resonances in 7 TeV pp collisions at CMS.

PubMed

Khachatryan, V; Sirunyan, A M; Tumasyan, A; Adam, W; Bergauer, T; Dragicevic, M; Erö, J; Fabjan, C; Friedl, M; Frühwirth, R; Ghete, V M; Hammer, J; Hänsel, S; Hartl, C; Hoch, M; Hörmann, N; Hrubec, J; Jeitler, M; Kasieczka, G; Kiesenhofer, W; Krammer, M; Liko, D; Mikulec, I; Pernicka, M; Rohringer, H; Schöfbeck, R; Strauss, J; Taurok, A; Teischinger, F; Waltenberger, W; Walzel, G; Widl, E; Wulz, C-E; Mossolov, V; Shumeiko, N; Suarez Gonzalez, J; Benucci, L; Ceard, L; De Wolf, E A; Janssen, X; Maes, T; Mucibello, L; Ochesanu, S; Roland, B; Rougny, R; Selvaggi, M; Van Haevermaet, H; Van Mechelen, P; Van Remortel, N; Adler, V; Beauceron, S; Blyweert, S; D'Hondt, J; Devroede, O; Kalogeropoulos, A; Maes, J; Maes, M; Tavernier, S; Van Doninck, W; Van Mulders, P; Villella, I; Chabert, E C; Charaf, O; Clerbaux, B; De Lentdecker, G; Dero, V; Gay, A P R; Hammad, G H; Hreus, T; Marage, P E; Thomas, L; Vander Velde, C; Vanlaer, P; Wickens, J; Costantini, S; Grunewald, M; Klein, B; Marinov, A; Ryckbosch, D; Thyssen, F; Tytgat, M; Vanelderen, L; Verwilligen, P; Walsh, S; Zaganidis, N; Basegmez, S; Bruno, G; Caudron, J; De Favereau De Jeneret, J; Delaere, C; Demin, P; Favart, D; Giammanco, A; Grégoire, G; Hollar, J; Lemaitre, V; Militaru, O; Ovyn, S; Pagano, D; Pin, A; Piotrzkowski, K; Quertenmont, L; Schul, N; Beliy, N; Caebergs, T; Daubie, E; Alves, G A; De Jesus Damiao, D; Pol, M E; Souza, M H G; Carvalho, W; Da Costa, E M; De Oliveira Martins, C; Fonseca De Souza, S; Mundim, L; Nogima, H; Oguri, V; Otalora Goicochea, J M; Prado Da Silva, W L; Santoro, A; Silva Do Amaral, S M; Sznajder, A; Torres Da Silva De Araujo, F; Dias, F A; Dias, M A F; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T R; Gregores, E M; Marinho, F; Novaes, S F; Padula, Sandra S; Darmenov, N; Dimitrov, L; Genchev, V; Iaydjiev, P; Piperov, S; Rodozov, M; Stoykova, S; Sultanov, G; Tcholakov, V; Trayanov, R; Vankov, I; Dyulendarova, M; Hadjiiska, R; Kozhuharov, V; Litov, L; Marinova, E; Mateev, M; Pavlov, B; Petkov, P; Bian, J G; Chen, G M; Chen, H S; Jiang, C H; Liang, D; Liang, S; Wang, J; Wang, J; Wang, X; Wang, Z; Yang, M; Zang, J; Zhang, Z; Ban, Y; Guo, S; Hu, Z; Li, W; Mao, Y; Qian, S J; Teng, H; Zhu, B; Cabrera, A; Gomez Moreno, B; Ocampo Rios, A A; Osorio Oliveros, A F; Sanabria, J C; Godinovic, N; Lelas, D; Lelas, K; Plestina, R; Polic, D; Puljak, I; Antunovic, Z; Dzelalija, M; Brigljevic, V; Duric, S; Kadija, K; Morovic, S; Attikis, A; Fereos, R; Galanti, M; Mousa, J; Nicolaou, C; Ptochos, F; Razis, P A; Rykaczewski, H; Abdel-Basit, A; Assran, Y; Mahmoud, M A; Hektor, A; Kadastik, M; Kannike, K; Müntel, M; Raidal, M; Rebane, L; Azzolini, V; Eerola, P; Czellar, S; Härkönen, J; Heikkinen, A; Karimäki, V; Kinnunen, R; Klem, J; Kortelainen, M J; Lampén, T; Lassila-Perini, K; Lehti, S; Lindén, T; Luukka, P; Mäenpää, T; Tuominen, E; Tuominiemi, J; Tuovinen, E; Ungaro, D; Wendland, L; Banzuzi, K; Korpela, A; Tuuva, T; Sillou, D; Besancon, M; Dejardin, M; Denegri, D; Fabbro, B; Faure, J L; Ferri, F; Ganjour, S; Gentit, F X; Givernaud, A; Gras, P; Hamel de Monchenault, G; Jarry, P; Locci, E; Malcles, J; Marionneau, M; Millischer, L; Rander, J; Rosowsky, A; Titov, M; Verrecchia, P; Baffioni, S; Bianchini, L; Bluj, M; Broutin, C; Busson, P; Charlot, C; Dobrzynski, L; Granier de Cassagnac, R; Haguenauer, M; Miné, P; Mironov, C; Ochando, C; Paganini, P; Sabes, D; Salerno, R; Sirois, Y; Thiebaux, C; Zabi, A; Agram, J-L; Besson, A; Bloch, D; Bodin, D; Brom, J-M; Cardaci, M; Conte, E; Drouhin, F; Ferro, C; Fontaine, J-C; Gelé, D; Goerlach, U; Greder, S; Juillot, P; Karim, M; Le Bihan, A-C; Mikami, Y; Van Hove, P; Fassi, F; Mercier, D; Baty, C; Beaupere, N; Bedjidian, M; Bondu, O; Boudoul, G; Boumediene, D; Brun, H; Chanon, N; Chierici, R; Contardo, D; Depasse, P; El Mamouni, H; Falkiewicz, A; Fay, J; Gascon, S; Ille, B; Kurca, T; Le Grand, T; Lethuillier, M; Mirabito, L; Perries, S; Sordini, V; Tosi, S; Tschudi, Y; Verdier, P; Xiao, H; Roinishvili, V; Anagnostou, G; Edelhoff, M; Feld, L; Heracleous, N; Hindrichs, O; Jussen, R; Klein, K; Merz, J; Mohr, N; Ostapchuk, A; Perieanu, A; Raupach, F; Sammet, J; Schael, S; Sprenger, D; Weber, H; Weber, M; Wittmer, B; Ata, M; Bender, W; Erdmann, M; Frangenheim, J; Hebbeker, T; Hinzmann, A; Hoepfner, K; Hof, C; Klimkovich, T; Klingebiel, D; Kreuzer, P; Lanske, D; Magass, C; Masetti, G; Merschmeyer, M; Meyer, A; Papacz, P; Pieta, H; Reithler, H; Schmitz, S A; Sonnenschein, L; Steggemann, J; Teyssier, D; Bontenackels, M; Davids, M; Duda, M; Flügge, G; Geenen, H; Giffels, M; Haj Ahmad, W; Heydhausen, D; Kress, T; Kuessel, Y; Linn, A; Nowack, A; Perchalla, L; Pooth, O; Rennefeld, J; Sauerland, P; Stahl, A; Thomas, M; Tornier, D; Zoeller, M H; Aldaya Martin, M; Behrenhoff, W; Behrens, U; Bergholz, M; Borras, K; Campbell, A; Castro, E; Dammann, D; Eckerlin, G; Flossdorf, A; Flucke, G; Geiser, A; Glushkov, I; Hauk, J; Jung, H; Kasemann, M; Katkov, I; Katsas, P; Kleinwort, C; Kluge, H; Knutsson, A; Krücker, D; Kuznetsova, E; Lange, W; Lohmann, W; Mankel, R; Marienfeld, M; Melzer-Pellmann, I-A; Meyer, A B; Mnich, J; Mussgiller, A; Olzem, J; Parenti, A; Raspereza, A; Raval, A; Schmidt, R; Schoerner-Sadenius, T; Sen, N; Stein, M; Tomaszewska, J; Volyanskyy, D; Walsh, R; Wissing, C; Autermann, C; Bobrovskyi, S; Draeger, J; Eckstein, D; Enderle, H; Gebbert, U; Kaschube, K; Kaussen, G; Klanner, R; Mura, B; Naumann-Emme, S; Nowak, F; Pietsch, N; Sander, C; Schettler, H; Schleper, P; Schröder, M; Schum, T; Schwandt, J; Srivastava, A K; Stadie, H; Steinbrück, G; Thomsen, J; Wolf, R; Bauer, J; Buege, V; Cakir, A; Chwalek, T; Daeuwel, D; De Boer, W; Dierlamm, A; Dirkes, G; Feindt, M; Gruschke, J; Hackstein, C; Hartmann, F; Heinrich, M; Held, H; Hoffmann, K H; Honc, S; Kuhr, T; Martschei, D; Mueller, S; Müller, Th; Neuland, M B; Niegel, M; Oberst, O; Oehler, A; Ott, J; Peiffer, T; Piparo, D; Quast, G; Rabbertz, K; Ratnikov, F; Renz, M; Sabellek, A; Saout, C; Scheurer, A; Schieferdecker, P; Schilling, F-P; Schott, G; Simonis, H J; Stober, F M; Troendle, D; Wagner-Kuhr, J; Zeise, M; Zhukov, V; Ziebarth, E B; Daskalakis, G; Geralis, T; Kesisoglou, S; Kyriakis, A; Loukas, D; Manolakos, I; Markou, A; Markou, C; Mavrommatis, C; Petrakou, E; Gouskos, L; Mertzimekis, T; Panagiotou, A; Evangelou, I; Kokkas, P; Manthos, N; Papadopoulos, I; Patras, V; Triantis, F A; Aranyi, A; Bencze, G; Boldizsar, L; Debreczeni, G; Hajdu, C; Horvath, D; Kapusi, A; Krajczar, K; Sikler, F; Vesztergombi, G; Beni, N; Molnar, J; Palinkas, J; Szillasi, Z; Veszpremi, V; Raics, P; Trocsanyi, Z L; Ujvari, B; Bansal, S; Beri, S B; Bhatnagar, V; Jindal, M; Kaur, M; Kohli, J M; Mehta, M Z; Nishu, N; Saini, L K; Sharma, A; Sharma, R; Singh, A P; Singh, J B; Singh, S P; Ahuja, S; Bhattacharya, S; Chauhan, S; Choudhary, B C; Gupta, P; Jain, S; Jain, S; Kumar, A; Shivpuri, R K; Choudhury, R K; Dutta, D; Kailas, S; Kataria, S K; Mohanty, A K; Pant, L M; Shukla, P; Suggisetti, P; Aziz, T; Guchait, M; Gurtu, A; Maity, M; Majumder, D; Majumder, G; Mazumdar, K; Mohanty, G B; Saha, A; Sudhakar, K; Wickramage, N; Banerjee, S; Dugad, S; Mondal, N K; Arfaei, H; Bakhshiansohi, H; Etesami, S M; Fahim, A; Hashemi, M; Jafari, A; Khakzad, M; Mohammadi, A; Mohammadi Najafabadi, M; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, S; Safarzadeh, B; Zeinali, M; Abbrescia, M; Barbone, L; Calabria, C; Colaleo, A; Creanza, D; De Filippis, N; De Palma, M; Dimitrov, A; Fedele, F; Fiore, L; Iaselli, G; Lusito, L; Maggi, G; Maggi, M; Manna, N; Marangelli, B; My, S; Nuzzo, S; Pacifico, N; Pierro, G A; Pompili, A; Pugliese, G; Romano, F; Roselli, G; Selvaggi, G; Silvestris, L; Trentadue, R; Tupputi, S; Zito, G; Abbiendi, G; Benvenuti, A C; Bonacorsi, D; Braibant-Giacomelli, S; Capiluppi, P; Castro, A; Cavallo, F R; Cuffiani, M; Dallavalle, G M; Fabbri, F; Fanfani, A; Fasanella, D; Giacomelli, P; Giunta, M; Grandi, C; Marcellini, S; Meneghelli, M; Montanari, A; Navarria, F L; Odorici, F; Perrotta, A; Primavera, F; Rossi, A M; Rovelli, T; Siroli, G; Albergo, S; Cappello, G; Chiorboli, M; Costa, S; Tricomi, A; Tuve, C; Barbagli, G; Broccolo, G; Ciulli, V; Civinini, C; D'Alessandro, R; Focardi, E; Frosali, S; Gallo, E; Lenzi, P; Meschini, M; Paoletti, S; Sguazzoni, G; Tropiano, A; Benussi, L; Bianco, S; Colafranceschi, S; Fabbri, F; Piccolo, D; Fabbricatore, P; Musenich, R; Benaglia, A; Cerati, G B; De Guio, F; Di Matteo, L; Ghezzi, A; Govoni, P; Malberti, M; Malvezzi, S; Martelli, A; Massironi, A; Menasce, D; Miccio, V; Moroni, L; Paganoni, M; Pedrini, D; Ragazzi, S; Redaelli, N; Sala, S; Tabarelli de Fatis, T; Tancini, V; Buontempo, S; Carrillo Montoya, C A; Cimmino, A; De Cosa, A; De Gruttola, M; Fabozzi, F; Iorio, A O M; Lista, L; Noli, P; Paolucci, P; Azzi, P; Bacchetta, N; Bellan, P; Bellato, M; Biasotto, M; Bisello, D; Branca, A; Carlin, R; Checchia, P; De Mattia, M; Dorigo, T; Gasparini, F; Giubilato, P; Gresele, A; Lacaprara, S; Lazzizzera, I; Margoni, M; Maron, G; Meneguzzo, A T; Nespolo, M; Passaseo, M; Perrozzi, L; Pozzobon, N; Ronchese, P; Simonetto, F; Torassa, E; Tosi, M; Triossi, A; Vanini, S; Zotto, P; Baesso, P; Berzano, U; Riccardi, C; Torre, P; Vitulo, P; Viviani, C; Biasini, M; Bilei, G M; Caponeri, B; Fanò, L; Lariccia, P; Lucaroni, A; Mantovani, G; Menichelli, M; Nappi, A; Santocchia, A; Servoli, L; Taroni, S; Valdata, M; Volpe, R; Azzurri, P; Bagliesi, G; Bernardini, J; Boccali, T; Castaldi, R; D'Agnolo, R T; Dell'orso, R; Fiori, F; Foà, L; Giassi, A; Kraan, A; Ligabue, F; Lomtadze, T; Martini, L; Messineo, A; Palla, F; Palmonari, F; Sarkar, S; Segneri, G; Serban, A T; Spagnolo, P; Tenchini, R; Tonelli, G; Venturi, A; Verdini, P G; Barone, L; Cavallari, F; Del Re, D; Di Marco, E; Diemoz, M; Franci, D; Grassi, M; Longo, E; Organtini, G; Palma, A; Pandolfi, F; Paramatti, R; Rahatlou, S; Amapane, N; Arcidiacono, R; Argiro, S; Arneodo, M; Biino, C; Botta, C; Cartiglia, N; Castello, R; Costa, M; Demaria, N; Graziano, A; Mariotti, C; Marone, M; Maselli, S; Migliore, E; Mila, G; Monaco, V; Musich, M; Obertino, M M; Pastrone, N; Pelliccioni, M; Romero, A; Ruspa, M; Sacchi, R; Sola, V; Solano, A; Staiano, A; Trocino, D; Vilela Pereira, A; Ambroglini, F; Belforte, S; Cossutti, F; Della Ricca, G; Gobbo, B; Montanino, D; Penzo, A; Heo, S G; Chang, S; Chung, J; Kim, D H; Kim, G N; Kim, J E; Kong, D J; Park, H; Son, D; Son, D C; Kim, Zero; Kim, J Y; Song, S; Choi, S; Hong, B; Jo, M; Kim, H; Kim, J H; Kim, T J; Lee, K S; Moon, D H; Park, S K; Rhee, H B; Seo, E; Shin, S; Sim, K S; Choi, M; Kang, S; Kim, H; Park, C; Park, I C; Park, S; Ryu, G; Choi, Y; Choi, Y K; Goh, J; Lee, J; Lee, S; Seo, H; Yu, I; Bilinskas, M J; Grigelionis, I; Janulis, M; Martisiute, D; Petrov, P; Sabonis, T; Castilla Valdez, H; De La Cruz Burelo, E; Lopez-Fernandez, R; Sánchez Hernández, A; Villasenor-Cendejas, L M; Carrillo Moreno, S; Vazquez Valencia, F; Salazar Ibarguen, H A; Casimiro Linares, E; Morelos Pineda, A; Reyes-Santos, M A; Allfrey, P; Krofcheck, D; Tam, J; Butler, P H; Doesburg, R; Silverwood, H; Ahmad, M; Ahmed, I; Asghar, M I; Hoorani, H R; Khan, W A; Khurshid, T; Qazi, S; Cwiok, M; Dominik, W; Doroba, K; Kalinowski, A; Konecki, M; Krolikowski, J; Frueboes, T; Gokieli, R; Górski, M; Kazana, M; Nawrocki, K; Szleper, M; Wrochna, G; Zalewski, P; Almeida, N; David, A; Faccioli, P; Ferreira Parracho, P G; Gallinaro, M; Martins, P; Mini, G; Musella, P; Nayak, A; Raposo, L; Ribeiro, P Q; Seixas, J; Silva, P; Soares, D; Varela, J; Wöhri, H K; Belotelov, I; Bunin, P; Finger, M; Finger, M; Golutvin, I; Kamenev, A; Karjavin, V; Kozlov, G; Lanev, A; Moisenz, P; Palichik, V; Perelygin, V; Shmatov, S; Smirnov, V; Volodko, A; Zarubin, A; Bondar, N; Golovtsov, V; Ivanov, Y; Kim, V; Levchenko, P; Murzin, V; Oreshkin, V; Smirnov, I; Sulimov, V; Uvarov, L; Vavilov, S; Vorobyev, A; Andreev, Yu; Gninenko, S; Golubev, N; Kirsanov, M; Krasnikov, N; Matveev, V; Pashenkov, A; Toropin, A; Troitsky, S; Epshteyn, V; Gavrilov, V; Kaftanov, V; Kossov, M; Krokhotin, A; Kuleshov, S; Lychkovskaya, N; Oulianov, A; Safronov, G; Semenov, S; Shreyber, I; Stolin, V; Vlasov, E; Zhokin, A; Boos, E; Dubinin, M; Dudko, L; Ershov, A; Gribushin, A; Kodolova, O; Lokhtin, I; Obraztsov, S; Petrushanko, S; Sarycheva, L; Savrin, V; Snigirev, A; Andreev, V; Azarkin, M; Dremin, I; Kirakosyan, M; Rusakov, S V; Vinogradov, A; Azhgirey, I; Bitioukov, S; Grishin, V; Kachanov, V; Konstantinov, D; Krychkine, V; Petrov, V; Ryutin, R; Slabospitsky, S; Sobol, A; Tourtchanovitch, L; Troshin, S; Tyurin, N; Uzunian, A; Volkov, A; Adzic, P; Djordjevic, M; Krpic, D; Maletic, D; Milosevic, J; Puzovic, J; Aguilar-Benitez, M; Alcaraz Maestre, J; Arce, P; Battilana, C; Calvo, E; Cepeda, M; Cerrada, M; Colino, N; De La Cruz, B; Diez Pardos, C; Fernandez Bedoya, C; Fernández Ramos, J P; Ferrando, A; Flix, J; Fouz, M C; Garcia-Abia, P; Gonzalez Lopez, O; Goy Lopez, S; Hernandez, J M; Josa, M I; Merino, G; Puerta Pelayo, J; Redondo, I; Romero, L; Santaolalla, J; Willmott, C; Albajar, C; Codispoti, G; de Trocóniz, J F; Cuevas, J; Fernandez Menendez, J; Folgueras, S; Gonzalez Caballero, I; Lloret Iglesias, L; Vizan Garcia, J M; Cabrillo, I J; Calderon, A; Chamizo Llatas, M; Chuang, S H; Duarte Campderros, J; Felcini, M; Fernandez, M; Gomez, G; Gonzalez Sanchez, J; Gonzalez Suarez, R; Jorda, C; Lobelle Pardo, P; Lopez Virto, A; Marco, J; Marco, R; Martinez Rivero, C; Matorras, F; Piedra Gomez, J; Rodrigo, T; Ruiz Jimeno, A; Scodellaro, L; Sobron Sanudo, M; Vila, I; Vilar Cortabitarte, R; Abbaneo, D; Auffray, E; Baillon, P; Ball, A H; Barney, D; Beaudette, F; Bell, A J; Benedetti, D; Bernet, C; Bhattacharyya, A K; Bialas, W; Bloch, P; Bocci, A; Bolognesi, S; Breuker, H; Brona, G; Bunkowski, K; Camporesi, T; Cano, E; Cattai, A; Cerminara, G; Christiansen, T; Coarasa Perez, J A; Covarelli, R; Curé, B; D'Enterria, D; Dahms, T; De Roeck, A; Elliott-Peisert, A; Funk, W; Gaddi, A; Gennai, S; Georgiou, G; Gerwig, H; Gigi, D; Gill, K; Giordano, D; Glege, F; Gomez-Reino Garrido, R; Gouzevitch, M; Gowdy, S; Guiducci, L; Hansen, M; Harvey, J; Hegeman, J; Hegner, B; Henderson, C; Hoffmann, H F; Honma, A; Innocente, V; Janot, P; Karavakis, E; Lecoq, P; Leonidopoulos, C; Lourenço, C; Macpherson, A; Mäki, T; Malgeri, L; Mannelli, M; Masetti, L; Meijers, F; Mersi, S; Meschi, E; Moser, R; Mozer, M U; Mulders, M; Nesvold, E; Orsini, L; Perez, E; Petrilli, A; Pfeiffer, A; Pierini, M; Pimiä, M; Polese, G; Racz, A; Rolandi, G; Rovelli, C; Rovere, M; Sakulin, H; Schäfer, C; Schwick, C; Segoni, I; Sharma, A; Siegrist, P; Simon, M; Sphicas, P; Spiga, D; Spiropulu, M; Stöckli, F; Stoye, M; Tropea, P; Tsirou, A; Veres, G I; Vichoudis, P; Voutilainen, M; Zeuner, W D; Bertl, W; Deiters, K; Erdmann, W; Gabathuler, K; Horisberger, R; Ingram, Q; Kaestli, H C; König, S; Kotlinski, D; Langenegger, U; Meier, F; Renker, D; Rohe, T; Sibille, J; Starodumov, A; Caminada, L; Chen, Z; Cittolin, S; Dissertori, G; Dittmar, M; Eugster, J; Freudenreich, K; Grab, C; Hervé, A; Hintz, W; Lecomte, P; Lustermann, W; Marchica, C; Martinez Ruiz Del Arbol, P; Meridiani, P; Milenovic, P; Moortgat, F; Nardulli, A; Nef, P; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Pape, L; Pauss, F; Punz, T; Rizzi, A; Ronga, F J; Sala, L; Sanchez, A K; Sawley, M-C; Stieger, B; Tauscher, L; Thea, A; Theofilatos, K; Treille, D; Urscheler, C; Wallny, R; Weber, M; Wehrli, L; Weng, J; Aguiló, E; Amsler, C; Chiochia, V; De Visscher, S; Favaro, C; Ivova Rikova, M; Jaeger, A; Millan Mejias, B; Regenfus, C; Robmann, P; Rommerskirchen, T; Schmidt, A; Snoek, H; Wilke, L; Chang, Y H; Chen, K H; Chen, W T; Dutta, S; Go, A; Kuo, C M; Li, S W; Lin, W; Liu, M H; Liu, Z K; Lu, Y J; Wu, J H; Yu, S S; Bartalini, P; Chang, P; Chang, Y H; Chang, Y W; Chao, Y; Chen, K F; Hou, W-S; Hsiung, Y; Kao, K Y; Lei, Y J; Lu, R-S; Shiu, J G; Tzeng, Y M; Wang, M; Wei, J T; Adiguzel, A; Bakirci, M N; Cerci, S; Demir, Z; Dozen, C; Dumanoglu, I; Eskut, E; Girgis, S; Gökbulut, G; Güler, Y; Gurpinar, E; Hos, I; Kangal, E E; Karaman, T; Kayis Topaksu, A; Nart, A; Onengüt, G; Ozdemir, K; Ozturk, S; Polatöz, A; Sogut, K; Tali, B; Topakli, H; Uzun, D; Vergili, L N; Vergili, M; Zorbilmez, C; Akin, I V; Aliev, T; Bilmis, S; Deniz, M; Gamsizkan, H; Guler, A M; Ocalan, K; Ozpineci, A; Serin, M; Sever, R; Surat, U E; Yildirim, E; Zeyrek, M; Deliomeroglu, M; Demir, D; Gülmez, E; Halu, A; Isildak, B; Kaya, M; Kaya, O; Ozbek, M; Ozkorucuklu, S; Sonmez, N; Levchuk, L; Bell, P; Bostock, F; Brooke, J J; Cheng, T L; Cussans, D; Frazier, R; Goldstein, J; Grimes, M; Hansen, M; Heath, G P; Heath, H F; Huckvale, B; Jackson, J; Kreczko, L; Metson, S; Newbold, D M; Nirunpong, K; Poll, A; Smith, V J; Ward, S; Basso, L; Bell, K W; Belyaev, A; Brew, C; Brown, R M; Camanzi, B; Cockerill, D J A; Coughlan, J A; Harder, K; Harper, S; Kennedy, B W; Olaiya, E; Petyt, D; Radburn-Smith, B C; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C H; Tomalin, I R; Womersley, W J; Worm, S D; Bainbridge, R; Ball, G; Ballin, J; Beuselinck, R; Buchmuller, O; Colling, D; Cripps, N; Cutajar, M; Davies, G; Della Negra, M; Foudas, C; Fulcher, J; Futyan, D; Guneratne Bryer, A; Hall, G; Hatherell, Z; Hays, J; Iles, G; Karapostoli, G; Lyons, L; Magnan, A-M; Marrouche, J; Nandi, R; Nash, J; Nikitenko, A; Papageorgiou, A; Pesaresi, M; Petridis, K; Pioppi, M; Raymond, D M; Rompotis, N; Rose, A; Ryan, M J; Seez, C; Sharp, P; Sparrow, A; Tapper, A; Tourneur, S; Vazquez Acosta, M; Virdee, T; Wakefield, S; Wardrope, D; Whyntie, T; Barrett, M; Chadwick, M; Cole, J E; Hobson, P R; Khan, A; Kyberd, P; Leslie, D; Martin, W; Reid, I D; Teodorescu, L; Hatakeyama, K; Bose, T; Carrera Jarrin, E; Clough, A; Fantasia, C; Heister, A; St John, J; Lawson, P; Lazic, D; Rohlf, J; Sperka, D; Sulak, L; Andrea, J; Avetisyan, A; Bhattacharya, S; Chou, J P; Cutts, D; Esen, S; Ferapontov, A; Heintz, U; Jabeen, S; Kukartsev, G; Landsberg, G; Narain, M; Nguyen, D; Segala, M; Speer, T; Tsang, K V; Borgia, M A; Breedon, R; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, M; Cebra, D; Chertok, M; Conway, J; Cox, P T; Dolen, J; Erbacher, R; Friis, E; Ko, W; Kopecky, A; Lander, R; Liu, H; Maruyama, S; Miceli, T; Nikolic, M; Pellett, D; Robles, J; Schwarz, T; Searle, M; Smith, J; Squires, M; Tripathi, M; Vasquez Sierra, R; Veelken, C; Andreev, V; Arisaka, K; Cline, D; Cousins, R; Deisher, A; Duris, J; Erhan, S; Farrell, C; Hauser, J; Ignatenko, M; Jarvis, C; Plager, C; Rakness, G; Schlein, P; Tucker, J; Valuev, V; Babb, J; Clare, R; Ellison, J; Gary, J W; Giordano, F; Hanson, G; Jeng, G Y; Kao, S C; Liu, F; Liu, H; Luthra, A; Nguyen, H; Pasztor, G; Satpathy, A; Shen, B C; Stringer, R; Sturdy, J; Sumowidagdo, S; Wilken, R; Wimpenny, S; Andrews, W; Branson, J G; Dusinberre, E; Evans, D; Golf, F; Holzner, A; Kelley, R; Lebourgeois, M; Letts, J; Mangano, B; Muelmenstaedt, J; Padhi, S; Palmer, C; Petrucciani, G; Pi, H; Pieri, M; Ranieri, R; Sani, M; Sharma, V; Simon, S; Tu, Y; Vartak, A; Würthwein, F; Yagil, A; Barge, D; Bellan, R; Campagnari, C; D'Alfonso, M; Danielson, T; Geffert, P; Incandela, J; Justus, C; Kalavase, P; Koay, S A; Kovalskyi, D; Krutelyov, V; Lowette, S; McColl, N; Pavlunin, V; Rebassoo, F; Ribnik, J; Richman, J; Rossin, R; Stuart, D; To, W; Vlimant, J R; Witherell, M; Bornheim, A; Bunn, J; Chen, Y; Gataullin, M; Kcira, D; Litvine, V; Ma, Y; Mott, A; Newman, H B; Rogan, C; Shin, K; Timciuc, V; Traczyk, P; Veverka, J; Wilkinson, R; Yang, Y; Zhu, R Y; Akgun, B; Calamba, A; Carroll, R; Ferguson, T; Iiyama, Y; Jang, D W; Jun, S Y; Liu, Y F; Paulini, M; Russ, J; Terentyev, N; Vogel, H; Vorobiev, I; Cumalat, J P; Dinardo, M E; Drell, B R; Edelmaier, C J; Ford, W T; Heyburn, B; Luiggi Lopez, E; Nauenberg, U; Smith, J G; Stenson, K; Ulmer, K A; Wagner, S R; Zang, S L; Agostino, L; Alexander, J; Blekman, F; Chatterjee, A; Das, S; Eggert, N; Fields, L J; Gibbons, L K; Heltsley, B; Henriksson, K; Hopkins, W; Khukhunaishvili, A; Kreis, B; Kuznetsov, V; Liu, Y; Nicolas Kaufman, G; Patterson, J R; Puigh, D; Riley, D; Ryd, A; Saelim, M; Shi, X; Sun, W; Teo, W D; Thom, J; Thompson, J; Vaughan, J; Weng, Y; Winstrom, L; Wittich, P; Biselli, A; Cirino, G; Winn, D; Abdullin, S; Albrow, M; Anderson, J; Apollinari, G; Atac, M; Bakken, J A; Banerjee, S; Bauerdick, L A T; Beretvas, A; Berryhill, J; Bhat, P C; Bloch, I; Borcherding, F; Burkett, K; Butler, J N; Chetluru, V; Cheung, H W K; Chlebana, F; Cihangir, S; Demarteau, M; Eartly, D P; Elvira, V D; Fisk, I; Freeman, J; Gao, Y; Gottschalk, E; Green, D; Gunthoti, K; Gutsche, O; Hahn, A; Hanlon, J; Harris, R M; Hirschauer, J; Hooberman, B; James, E; Jensen, H; Johnson, M; Joshi, U; Khatiwada, R; Kilminster, B; Klima, B; Kousouris, K; Kunori, S; Kwan, S; Limon, P; Lipton, R; Lykken, J; Maeshima, K; Marraffino, J M; Mason, D; McBride, P; McCauley, T; Miao, T; Mishra, K; Mrenna, S; Musienko, Y; Newman-Holmes, C; O'Dell, V; Popescu, S; Pordes, R; Prokofyev, O; Saoulidou, N; Sexton-Kennedy, E; Sharma, S; Soha, A; Spalding, W J; Spiegel, L; Tan, P; Taylor, L; Tkaczyk, S; Uplegger, L; Vaandering, E W; Vidal, R; Whitmore, J; Wu, W; Yang, F; Yumiceva, F; Yun, J C; Acosta, D; Avery, P; Bourilkov, D; Chen, M; Di Giovanni, G P; Dobur, D; Drozdetskiy, A; Field, R D; Fisher, M; Fu, Y; Furic, I K; Gartner, J; Goldberg, S; Kim, B; Klimenko, S; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotov, K; Kropivnitskaya, A; Kypreos, T; Matchev, K; Mitselmakher, G; Muniz, L; Pakhotin, Y; Petterson, M; Prescott, C; Remington, R; Schmitt, M; Scurlock, B; Sellers, P; Snowball, M; Wang, D; Yelton, J; Zakaria, M; Ceron, C; Gaultney, V; Kramer, L; Lebolo, L M; Linn, S; Markowitz, P; Martinez, G; Mesa, D; Rodriguez, J L; Adams, T; Askew, A; Bochenek, J; Chen, J; Diamond, B; Gleyzer, S V; Haas, J; Hagopian, S; Hagopian, V; Jenkins, M; Johnson, K F; Prosper, H; Sekmen, S; Veeraraghavan, V; Baarmand, M M; Dorney, B; Guragain, S; Hohlmann, M; Kalakhety, H; Mermerkaya, H; Ralich, R; Vodopiyanov, I; Adams, M R; Anghel, I M; Apanasevich, L; Bai, Y; Bazterra, V E; Betts, R R; Callner, J; Cavanaugh, R; Dragoiu, C; Garcia-Solis, E J; Gerber, C E; Hofman, D J; Khalatyan, S; Lacroix, F; O'Brien, C; Silvestre, C; Smoron, A; Strom, D; Varelas, N; Akgun, U; Albayrak, E A; Bilki, B; Cankocak, K; Clarida, W; Duru, F; Lae, C K; McCliment, E; Merlo, J-P; Mestvirishvili, A; Moeller, A; Nachtman, J; Newsom, C R; Norbeck, E; Olson, J; Onel, Y; Ozok, F; Sen, S; Wetzel, J; Yetkin, T; Yi, K; Barnett, B A; Blumenfeld, B; Bonato, A; Eskew, C; Fehling, D; Giurgiu, G; Gritsan, A V; Guo, Z J; Hu, G; Maksimovic, P; Rappoccio, S; Swartz, M; Tran, N V; Whitbeck, A; Baringer, P; Bean, A; Benelli, G; Grachov, O; Murray, M; Noonan, D; Radicci, V; Sanders, S; Wood, J S; Zhukova, V; Bandurin, D; Bolton, T; Chakaberia, I; Ivanov, A; Makouski, M; Maravin, Y; Shrestha, S; Svintradze, I; Wan, Z; Gronberg, J; Lange, D; Wright, D; Baden, A; Boutemeur, M; Eno, S C; Ferencek, D; Gomez, J A; Hadley, N J; Kellogg, R G; Kirn, M; Lu, Y; Mignerey, A C; Rossato, K; Rumerio, P; Santanastasio, F; Skuja, A; Temple, J; Tonjes, M B; Tonwar, S C; Twedt, E; Alver, B; Bauer, G; Bendavid, J; Busza, W; Butz, E; Cali, I A; Chan, M; Dutta, V; Everaerts, P; Gomez Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; Hahn, K A; Harris, P; Kim, Y; Klute, M; Lee, Y-J; Li, W; Loizides, C; Luckey, P D; Ma, T; Nahn, S; Paus, C; Roland, C; Roland, G; Rudolph, M; Stephans, G S F; Sumorok, K; Sung, K; Wenger, E A; Wyslouch, B; Xie, S; Yang, M; Yilmaz, Y; Yoon, A S; Zanetti, M; Cole, P; Cooper, S I; Cushman, P; Dahmes, B; De Benedetti, A; Dudero, P R; Franzoni, G; Haupt, J; Klapoetke, K; Kubota, Y; Mans, J; Rekovic, V; Rusack, R; Sasseville, M; Singovsky, A; Cremaldi, L M; Godang, R; Kroeger, R; Perera, L; Rahmat, R; Sanders, D A; Summers, D; Bloom, K; Bose, S; Butt, J; Claes, D R; Dominguez, A; Eads, M; Keller, J; Kelly, T; Kravchenko, I; Lazo-Flores, J; Lundstedt, C; Malbouisson, H; Malik, S; Snow, G R; Baur, U; Godshalk, A; Iashvili, I; Kharchilava, A; Kumar, A; Smith, K; Zennamo, J; Alverson, G; Barberis, E; Baumgartel, D; Boeriu, O; Chasco, M; Kaadze, K; Reucroft, S; Swain, J; Wood, D; Zhang, J; Anastassov, A; Kubik, A; Odell, N; Ofierzynski, R A; Pollack, B; Pozdnyakov, A; Schmitt, M; Stoynev, S; Velasco, M; Won, S; Antonelli, L; Berry, D; Hildreth, M; Jessop, C; Karmgard, D J; Kolb, J; Kolberg, T; Lannon, K; Luo, W; Lynch, S; Marinelli, N; Morse, D M; Pearson, T; Ruchti, R; Slaunwhite, J; Valls, N; Warchol, J; Wayne, M; Ziegler, J; Bylsma, B; Durkin, L S; Gu, J; Hill, C; Killewald, P; Ling, T Y; Rodenburg, M; Williams, G; Adam, N; Berry, E; Elmer, P; Gerbaudo, D; Halyo, V; Hebda, P; Hunt, A; Jones, J; Laird, E; Lopes Pegna, D; Marlow, D; Medvedeva, T; Mooney, M; Olsen, J; Piroué, P; Saka, H; Stickland, D; Tully, C; Werner, J S; Zuranski, A; Acosta, J G; Huang, X T; Lopez, A; Mendez, H; Oliveros, S; Ramirez Vargas, J E; Zatserklyaniy, A; Alagoz, E; Barnes, V E; Bolla, G; Borrello, L; Bortoletto, D; Everett, A; Garfinkel, A F; Gecse, Z; Gutay, L; Jones, M; Koybasi, O; Laasanen, A T; Leonardo, N; Liu, C; Maroussov, V; Meier, M; Merkel, P; Miller, D H; Neumeister, N; Potamianos, K; Shipsey, I; Silvers, D; Svyatkovskiy, A; Yoo, H D; Zablocki, J; Zheng, Y; Jindal, P; Parashar, N; Boulahouache, C; Cuplov, V; Ecklund, K M; Geurts, F J M; Liu, J H; Morales, J; Padley, B P; Redjimi, R; Roberts, J; Zabel, J; Betchart, B; Bodek, A; Chung, Y S; de Barbaro, P; Demina, R; Eshaq, Y; Flacher, H; Garcia-Bellido, A; Goldenzweig, P; Gotra, Y; Han, J; Harel, A; Miner, D C; Orbaker, D; Petrillo, G; Vishnevskiy, D; Zielinski, M; Bhatti, A; Demortier, L; Goulianos, K; Lungu, G; Mesropian, C; Yan, M; Atramentov, O; Barker, A; Duggan, D; Gershtein, Y; Gray, R; Halkiadakis, E; Hidas, D; Hits, D; Lath, A; Panwalkar, S; Patel, R; Richards, A; Rose, K; Schnetzer, S; Somalwar, S; Stone, R; Thomas, S; Cerizza, G; Hollingsworth, M; Spanier, S; Yang, Z C; York, A; Asaadi, J; Eusebi, R; Gilmore, J; Gurrola, A; Kamon, T; Khotilovich, V; Montalvo, R; Nguyen, C N; Pivarski, J; Safonov, A; Sengupta, S; Tatarinov, A; Toback, D; Weinberger, M; Akchurin, N; Bardak, C; Damgov, J; Jeong, C; Kovitanggoon, K; Lee, S W; Mane, P; Roh, Y; Sill, A; Volobouev, I; Wigmans, R; Yazgan, E; Appelt, E; Brownson, E; Engh, D; Florez, C; Gabella, W; Johns, W; Kurt, P; Maguire, C; Melo, A; Sheldon, P; Velkovska, J; Arenton, M W; Balazs, M; Boutle, S; Buehler, M; Conetti, S; Cox, B; Francis, B; Hirosky, R; Ledovskoy, A; Lin, C; Neu, C; Patel, T; Yohay, R; Gollapinni, S; Harr, R; Karchin, P E; Loggins, V; Mattson, M; Milstène, C; Sakharov, A; Anderson, M; Bachtis, M; Bellinger, J N; Carlsmith, D; Dasu, S; Efron, J; Gray, L; Grogg, K S; Grothe, M; Hall-Wilton, R; Herndon, M; Klabbers, P; Klukas, J; Lanaro, A; Lazaridis, C; Leonard, J; Liu, J; Lomidze, D; Loveless, R; Mohapatra, A; Parker, W; Reeder, D; Ross, I; Savin, A; Smith, W H; Swanson, J; Weinberg, M

2010-11-19

A search for narrow resonances in the dijet mass spectrum is performed using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.9 pb⁻¹ collected by the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level are presented on the product of the resonance cross section, branching fraction into dijets, and acceptance, separately for decays into quark-quark, quark-gluon, or gluon-gluon pairs. The data exclude new particles predicted in the following models at the 95% confidence level: string resonances, with mass less than 2.50 TeV, excited quarks, with mass less than 1.58 TeV, and axigluons, colorons, and E6 diquarks, in specific mass intervals. This extends previously published limits on these models.

Scattering from randomly oriented circular discs with application to vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karam, M. A.; Fung, A. K.

1984-01-01

A vegetation layer is modeled by a collection of randomly oriented circular discs over a half space. The backscattering coefficient from such a half space is computed using the radiative transfer theory. It is shown that significantly different results are obtained from this theory as compared with some earlier investigations using the same modeling approach but with restricted disc orientations. In particular, the backscattered cross polarized returns cannot have a fast increasing angular trend which is inconsistent with measurements. By setting the appropriate angle of orientation to zero the theory reduces to previously published results. Comparisons are shown with measurements taken from milo, corn and wheat and good agreements are obtained for both polarized and cross polarized returns.

Scattering from randomly oriented circular discs with application to vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karam, M. A.; Fung, A. K.

1983-01-01

A vegetation layer is modeled by a collection of randomly oriented circular discs over a half space. The backscattering coefficient from such a half space is computed using the radiative transfer theory. It is shown that significantly different results are obtained from this theory as compared with some earlier investigations using the same modeling approach but with restricted disc orientations. In particular, the backscattered cross-polarized returns cannot have a fast increasing angular trend which is inconsistent with measurements. By setting the appropriate angle of orientation to zero the theory reduces to previously published results. Comparisons are shown with measurements taken from milo, corn and wheat and good agreements are obtained for both polarized and cross-polarized returns.

An Improved Analytical Model of the Local Interstellar Magnetic Field: The Extension to Compressibility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleimann, Jens; Fichtner, Horst; Röken, Christian, E-mail: jk@tp4.rub.de, E-mail: hf@tp4.rub.de, E-mail: christian.roeken@mathematik.uni-regensburg.de

A previously published analytical magnetohydrodynamic model for the local interstellar magnetic field in the vicinity of the heliopause (Röken et al. 2015) is extended from incompressible to compressible, yet predominantly subsonic flow, considering both isothermal and adiabatic equations of state. Exact expressions and suitable approximations for the density and the flow velocity are derived and discussed. In addition to the stationary induction equation, these expressions also satisfy the momentum balance equation along stream lines. The practical usefulness of the corresponding, still exact, analytical magnetic field solution is assessed by comparing it quantitatively to results from a fully self-consistent magnetohydrodynamic simulationmore » of the interstellar magnetic field draping around the heliopause.« less

Re-evaluation of Apollo 17 Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heffels, Alexandra; Knapmeyer, Martin; Oberst, Jürgen; Haase, Isabel

2017-01-01

We re-analyzed Apollo 17 Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment (LSPE) data to improve our knowledge of the subsurface structure of this landing site. We use new geometrically accurate 3-D positions of the seismic equipment deployed by the astronauts, which were previously derived using high-resolution images by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) in combination with Apollo astronaut photography. These include coordinates of six Explosive Packages (EPs) and four geophone stations. Re-identified P-wave arrival times are used to calculate two- and three-layer seismic velocity models. A strong increase of seismic velocity with depth can be confirmed, in particular, we suggest a more drastic increase than previously thought. For the three-layer model the P-wave velocities were calculated to 285, 580, and 1825 m/s for the uppermost, second, and third layer, respectively, with the boundaries between the layers being at 96 and 773 m depth. When compared with results obtained with previously published coordinates, we find (1) a slightly higher velocity (+4%) for the uppermost layer, and (2) lower P-wave velocities for the second and third layers, representing a decrease of 34% and 12% for second and third layer, respectively. Using P-wave arrival time readings of previous studies, we confirm that velocities increase when changing over from old to new coordinates. In the three-layer case, this means using new coordinates alone leads to thinned layers, velocities rise slightly for the uppermost layer and decrease significantly for the layers below.