The variability puzzle in human memory.

PubMed

Kahana, Michael J; Aggarwal, Eash V; Phan, Tung D

2018-04-26

Memory performance exhibits a high level of variability from moment to moment. Much of this variability may reflect inadequately controlled experimental variables, such as word memorability, past practice and subject fatigue. Alternatively, stochastic variability in performance may largely reflect the efficiency of endogenous neural processes that govern memory function. To help adjudicate between these competing views, the authors conducted a multisession study in which subjects completed 552 trials of a delayed free-recall task. Applying a statistical model to predict variability in each subject's recall performance uncovered modest effects of word memorability, proactive interference, and other variables. In contrast to the limited explanatory power of these experimental variables, performance on the prior list strongly predicted current list recall. These findings suggest that endogenous factors underlying successful encoding and retrieval drive variability in performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Controlling and Autonomy-Supportive Parenting in the United States and China: Beyond Children's Reports.

PubMed

Cheung, Cecilia S; Pomerantz, Eva M; Wang, Meifang; Qu, Yang

2016-11-01

Research comparing the predictive power of parents' control and autonomy support in the United States and China has relied almost exclusively on children's reports. Such reports may lead to inaccurate conclusions if they do not reflect parents' practices to the same extent in the two countries. A total of 394 American and Chinese children (M age  = 13.19 years) and their mothers reported on mothers' controlling and autonomy-supportive parenting in the academic arena; trained observers coded such parenting in the laboratory. Children's reports were associated modestly with mothers' reports and weakly, if at all, with observers' reports in both the United States and China. Parenting predicted children's academic and emotional functioning similarly in the two countries, irrespective of reporter. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Thermionic/AMTEC cascade converter concept for high-efficiency space power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagan, T.H. van; Smith, J.N. Jr.; Schuller, M.

1996-12-31

This paper presents trade studies that address the use of the thermionic/AMTEC cell--a cascaded, high-efficiency, static power conversion concept that appears well-suited to space power applications. Both the thermionic and AMTEC power conversion approaches have been shown to be promising candidates for space power. Thermionics offers system compactness via modest efficiency at high heat rejection temperatures, and AMTEC offers high efficiency at modest heat rejection temperature. From a thermal viewpoint the two are ideally suited for cascaded power conversion: thermionic heat rejection and AMTEC heat source temperatures are essentially the same. In addition to realizing conversion efficiencies potentially as highmore » as 35--40%, such a cascade offers the following perceived benefits: survivability; simplicity; technology readiness; and technology growth. Mechanical approaches and thermal/electric matching criteria for integrating thermionics and AMTEC into a single conversion device are described. Focusing primarily on solar thermal space power applications, parametric trends are presented to show the performance and cost potential that should be achievable with present-day technology in cascaded thermionic/AMTEC systems.« less

Attenuation of sound in sand sediments due to porosity fluctuations.

PubMed

Hefner, Brian T; Jackson, Darrell R

2014-08-01

At high frequencies, the attenuation measured in sand sediments is larger than that predicted by Biot theory. To account for this discrepancy, perturbation theory is used to incorporate losses due to scattering by porosity variations into both Biot's poroelastic equations and the effective density fluid model. While previous results showed that fluctuations in the bulk frame modulus were insufficient to produce significant attenuation in a sand sediment, modest levels of fluctuations in the porosity produce significant scattering loss. By using the sediment parameters and the heterogeneity power spectrum measured during the Sediment Acoustics Experiment in 2004, the perturbation theory result shows good agreement with the sound speed and attenuation data without any free parameters.

Are Tobacco Dependence and Withdrawal Related Amongst Heavy Smokers? Relevance to Conceptualizations of Dependence

PubMed Central

Baker, Timothy B.; Piper, Megan E.; Schlam, Tanya R.; Cook, Jessica W.; Smith, Stevens S.; Loh, Wei-Yin; Bolt, Daniel

2013-01-01

Measured tobacco dependence is typically only modestly related to tobacco withdrawal severity amongst regular smokers making a quit attempt. The weak association between dependence and withdrawal is notable because it conflicts with core theories of dependence and because both measures predict cessation outcomes, suggesting they both index a common dependence construct. This study used data from a smoking cessation comparative effectiveness trial (N = 1504) to characterize relations of tobacco dependence with craving and negative affect withdrawal symptoms using multiple dependence measures and analytic methods to detect both additive and interactive effects and to determine whether withdrawal meaningfully mediates the influence of dependence on smoking cessation. We conclude: (1) while univariate analyses suggest dependence and withdrawal measures are only modestly interrelated, more powerful analytic techniques show they are, in fact, meaningfully related and their shared variance is associated with cessation likelihood; (2) there are clear differences between craving and negative affective withdrawal symptoms, with the former more related to smoking heaviness and the latter related to trait measures of negative affect; moreover, craving more strongly mediates dependence effects on cessation; (3) both craving and negative affect withdrawal symptoms are strongly related to a pattern of regular smoking that is sensitive to the passage of time and powerfully affected by smoking cues. These findings support models that accord an important role for associative processes and withdrawal symptoms, especially craving, in drug dependence. The findings also support the use of withdrawal variables as criteria for the evaluation of dependence measures. PMID:22642839

The Topology of Large-Scale Structure in the 1.2 Jy IRAS Redshift Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protogeros, Zacharias A. M.; Weinberg, David H.

1997-11-01

We measure the topology (genus) of isodensity contour surfaces in volume-limited subsets of the 1.2 Jy IRAS redshift survey, for smoothing scales λ = 4, 7, and 12 h-1 Mpc. At 12 h-1 Mpc, the observed genus curve has a symmetric form similar to that predicted for a Gaussian random field. At the shorter smoothing lengths, the observed genus curve shows a modest shift in the direction of an isolated cluster or ``meatball'' topology. We use mock catalogs drawn from cosmological N-body simulations to investigate the systematic biases that affect topology measurements in samples of this size and to determine the full covariance matrix of the expected random errors. We incorporate the error correlations into our evaluations of theoretical models, obtaining both frequentist assessments of absolute goodness of fit and Bayesian assessments of models' relative likelihoods. We compare the observed topology of the 1.2 Jy survey to the predictions of dynamically evolved, unbiased, gravitational instability models that have Gaussian initial conditions. The model with an n = -1 power-law initial power spectrum achieves the best overall agreement with the data, though models with a low-density cold dark matter power spectrum and an n = 0 power-law spectrum are also consistent. The observed topology is inconsistent with an initially Gaussian model that has n = -2, and it is strongly inconsistent with a Voronoi foam model, which has a non-Gaussian, bubble topology.

Warm Dense Matter: Another Application for Pulsed Power Hydrodynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

Pulsed power hydrodynamic techniques, such as large convergence liner compression of a large volume, modest density, low temperature plasma to...controlled than are similar high explosively powered hydrodynamic experiments. While the precision and controllability of gas- gun experiments is...well established, pulsed power techniques using imploding liner offer access to convergent conditions, difficult to obtain with guns – and essential

New markers of dietary added sugar intake.

PubMed

Davy, Brenda; Jahren, Hope

2016-07-01

Added sugar consumption is associated with adverse health outcomes, including weight gain and cardio-metabolic disease, yet the reliance on self-reported methods to determine added sugar intake continues to be a significant research limitation. The purpose of this review is to summarize recent advances in the development of two potential predictive biomarkers of added sugar intake: δC and urinary sugar excretion. The results of numerous cross-sectional investigations have indicated modest associations of the δC sugar biomarker measured in a variety of sample types (e.g., fingerstick blood, serum, red blood cells, and hair) with self-reported added sugar and sugar-sweetened beverage intake, and δC values have been reported to change over time with changes in reported sugar-sweetened beverage intake. Results from large-scale trials have suggested modest associations of urinary sugar excretion with reported sugar intake, and a dose-response relation has been demonstrated between urinary sugar excretion and actual sugar intake. Valid markers of sugar intake are urgently needed to more definitively determine the health consequences of added sugar intake. Adequately powered controlled feeding studies are needed to validate and compare these two biomarkers of sugar intake, and to determine what individual characteristics and conditions impact biomarker results.

Relationship between frequency power spectra and intermittent, large-amplitude bursts in the Alcator C-Mod scrape-off layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theodorsen, A.; Garcia, O. E.; Kube, R.; LaBombard, B.; Terry, J. L.

2017-11-01

Fluctuations in the boundary region of the Alcator C-Mod tokamak have been analyzed using gas puff imaging data from a set of Ohmically heated plasma density scan experiments. It is found that the relative fluctuation amplitudes are modest and close to normally distributed at the separatrix but become increasingly larger and skewed towards the main chamber wall. The frequency power spectra are nevertheless similar for all radial positions and line-averaged densities. Predictions of a stochastic model, describing the plasma fluctuations as a super-position of uncorrelated pulses, are shown to be in excellent agreement with the measurements. This implies that the pulse duration is the same, while the degree of pulse overlap decreases radially outwards in the scrape-off layer. The universal frequency power spectral density is thus determined by the shape and duration of the large-amplitude bursts associated with blob-like structures. The model also describes the rate of threshold level crossings, for which the exponential tails underline the intermittency of the fluctuations in the far scarpe-off layer.

The Ironic Effect of Significant Results on the Credibility of Multiple-Study Articles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schimmack, Ulrich

2012-01-01

Cohen (1962) pointed out the importance of statistical power for psychology as a science, but statistical power of studies has not increased, while the number of studies in a single article has increased. It has been overlooked that multiple studies with modest power have a high probability of producing nonsignificant results because power…

Genetic and Environmental Influences on Frontal EEG Asymmetry and Alpha Power in 9–10 Year Old Twins

PubMed Central

Gao, Yu; Tuvblad, Catherine; Raine, Adrian; Lozano, Dora I.; Baker, Laura A.

2008-01-01

Modest genetic influences on frontal EEG asymmetry have been found in adults, but little is known about its genetic origins in children. Resting frontal asymmetry and alpha power were examined in 951 9–10-year-old twins. Results showed that in both males and females: (1) a modest but significant amount of variance in frontal asymmetry was accounted for by genetic factors (11–27%) with the remainder accounted for by non-shared environmental influences, and (2) alpha power were highly heritable, with 70–85% of the variance accounted for by genetic factors. Results suggest that the genetic architecture of frontal asymmetry and alpha power in late childhood are similar to that in adulthood and that the high non-shared environmental influences on frontal asymmetry may reflect environmentally-influenced individual differences in the maturation of frontal cortex as well as state-dependent influences on specific measurements. PMID:19386046

Test anxiety and academic performance in chiropractic students.

PubMed

Zhang, Niu; Henderson, Charles N R

2014-01-01

Objective : We assessed the level of students' test anxiety, and the relationship between test anxiety and academic performance. Methods : We recruited 166 third-quarter students. The Test Anxiety Inventory (TAI) was administered to all participants. Total scores from written examinations and objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) were used as response variables. Results : Multiple regression analysis shows that there was a modest, but statistically significant negative correlation between TAI scores and written exam scores, but not OSCE scores. Worry and emotionality were the best predictive models for written exam scores. Mean total anxiety and emotionality scores for females were significantly higher than those for males, but not worry scores. Conclusion : Moderate-to-high test anxiety was observed in 85% of the chiropractic students examined. However, total test anxiety, as measured by the TAI score, was a very weak predictive model for written exam performance. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that replacing total anxiety (TAI) with worry and emotionality (TAI subscales) produces a much more effective predictive model of written exam performance. Sex, age, highest current academic degree, and ethnicity contributed little additional predictive power in either regression model. Moreover, TAI scores were not found to be statistically significant predictors of physical exam skill performance, as measured by OSCEs.

A Multimethod Assessment of Juvenile Psychopathy: Comparing the Predictive Utility of the PCL:YV, YPI, and NEO PRI

PubMed Central

Cauffman, Elizabeth; Kimonis, Eva R.; Dmitrieva, Julia; Monahan, Kathryn C.

2009-01-01

The current study compares 3 distinct approaches for measuring juvenile psychopathy and their utility for predicting short- and long-term recidivism among a sample of 1,170 serious male juvenile offenders. The assessment approaches compared a clinical interview method (the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Forth, Kosson, & Hare, 2003), a new self-report measure (the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory; Andershed, Kerr, Stattin, & Levander, 2002), and a personality-based approach (the NEO Psychopathy Resemblance Index; Lynam & Widiger, 2007). Results indicate a modest overlap between the 3 measures (rs = .26–.36); however, youths were often identified as psychopathic by 1 measure but not by others. Measures were weakly correlated with reoffending during subsequent 6- and 12-month periods. Findings suggest that although such scores may be useful indicators of the need for heightened monitoring in the short term, care should be taken when making predictions about long-term recidivism among adolescents. Moreover, the lack of long-term predictive power for the PCL:YV and the inconsistent psychopathy designations obtained with different measures raise serious questions about the use of such measures as the basis for legal or clinical treatment decisions. PMID:19947787

A process dissociation approach to objective-projective test score interrelationships.

PubMed

Bornstein, Robert F

2002-02-01

Even when self-report and projective measures of a given trait or motive both predict theoretically related features of behavior, scores on the 2 tests correlate modestly with each other. This article describes a process dissociation framework for personality assessment, derived from research on implicit memory and learning, which can resolve these ostensibly conflicting results. Research on interpersonal dependency is used to illustrate 3 key steps in the process dissociation approach: (a) converging behavioral predictions, (b) modest test score intercorrelations, and (c) delineation of variables that differentially affect self-report and projective test scores. Implications of the process dissociation framework for personality assessment and test development are discussed.

Analysis and design of a 10 to 30 kW grid-connected solar power system for the JPL fire station and first aid station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Josephs, R. H.

1982-01-01

The design and performance of a modestly sized utility-connected power conditioning system and its supporting photovoltaic collector are described and estimated. Utility preparations and guidelines to conform with the output of a small generating station with that of a large power network are examined.

Evaluation of a Mobile Phone-Based Microscope for Screening of Schistosoma haematobium Infection in Rural Ghana.

PubMed

Bogoch, Isaac I; Koydemir, Hatice C; Tseng, Derek; Ephraim, Richard K D; Duah, Evans; Tee, Joseph; Andrews, Jason R; Ozcan, Aydogan

2017-06-01

AbstractSchistosomiasis affects over 170 million people in Africa. Here we compare a novel, low-cost mobile phone microscope to a conventional light microscope for the label-free diagnosis of Schistosoma haematobium infections in a rural Ghanaian school setting. We tested the performance of our handheld microscope using 60 slides that were randomly chosen from an ongoing epidemiologic study in school-aged children. The mobile phone microscope had a sensitivity of 72.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 56.1-84.2), specificity of 100% (95% CI: 75.9-100), positive predictive value of 100% (95% CI: 86.3-100), and a negative predictive value of 57.1% (95% CI: 37.4-75.0). With its modest sensitivity and high specificity, this handheld and cost-effective mobile phone-based microscope is a stepping-stone toward developing a powerful tool in clinical and public health settings where there is limited access to conventional laboratory diagnostic support.

A Statistical Learning Framework for Materials Science: Application to Elastic Moduli of k-nary Inorganic Polycrystalline Compounds.

PubMed

de Jong, Maarten; Chen, Wei; Notestine, Randy; Persson, Kristin; Ceder, Gerbrand; Jain, Anubhav; Asta, Mark; Gamst, Anthony

2016-10-03

Materials scientists increasingly employ machine or statistical learning (SL) techniques to accelerate materials discovery and design. Such pursuits benefit from pooling training data across, and thus being able to generalize predictions over, k-nary compounds of diverse chemistries and structures. This work presents a SL framework that addresses challenges in materials science applications, where datasets are diverse but of modest size, and extreme values are often of interest. Our advances include the application of power or Hölder means to construct descriptors that generalize over chemistry and crystal structure, and the incorporation of multivariate local regression within a gradient boosting framework. The approach is demonstrated by developing SL models to predict bulk and shear moduli (K and G, respectively) for polycrystalline inorganic compounds, using 1,940 compounds from a growing database of calculated elastic moduli for metals, semiconductors and insulators. The usefulness of the models is illustrated by screening for superhard materials.

A Statistical Learning Framework for Materials Science: Application to Elastic Moduli of k-nary Inorganic Polycrystalline Compounds

PubMed Central

de Jong, Maarten; Chen, Wei; Notestine, Randy; Persson, Kristin; Ceder, Gerbrand; Jain, Anubhav; Asta, Mark; Gamst, Anthony

2016-01-01

Materials scientists increasingly employ machine or statistical learning (SL) techniques to accelerate materials discovery and design. Such pursuits benefit from pooling training data across, and thus being able to generalize predictions over, k-nary compounds of diverse chemistries and structures. This work presents a SL framework that addresses challenges in materials science applications, where datasets are diverse but of modest size, and extreme values are often of interest. Our advances include the application of power or Hölder means to construct descriptors that generalize over chemistry and crystal structure, and the incorporation of multivariate local regression within a gradient boosting framework. The approach is demonstrated by developing SL models to predict bulk and shear moduli (K and G, respectively) for polycrystalline inorganic compounds, using 1,940 compounds from a growing database of calculated elastic moduli for metals, semiconductors and insulators. The usefulness of the models is illustrated by screening for superhard materials. PMID:27694824

A Statistical Learning Framework for Materials Science: Application to Elastic Moduli of k-nary Inorganic Polycrystalline Compounds

DOE PAGES

de Jong, Maarten; Chen, Wei; Notestine, Randy; ...

2016-10-03

Materials scientists increasingly employ machine or statistical learning (SL) techniques to accelerate materials discovery and design. Such pursuits benefit from pooling training data across, and thus being able to generalize predictions over, k-nary compounds of diverse chemistries and structures. This work presents a SL framework that addresses challenges in materials science applications, where datasets are diverse but of modest size, and extreme values are often of interest. Our advances include the application of power or Hölder means to construct descriptors that generalize over chemistry and crystal structure, and the incorporation of multivariate local regression within a gradient boosting framework. Themore » approach is demonstrated by developing SL models to predict bulk and shear moduli (K and G, respectively) for polycrystalline inorganic compounds, using 1,940 compounds from a growing database of calculated elastic moduli for metals, semiconductors and insulators. The usefulness of the models is illustrated by screening for superhard materials.« less

Association of TLL1 gene polymorphism (rs1503298, T > C) with coronary heart disease in PREDICT, UDACS and ED cohorts.

PubMed

Zain, Maryam; Awan, Fazli Rabbi; Cooper, Jackie A; Li, Ka Wah; Palmen, Jutta; Acharya, Jay; Howard, Philip; Baig, Shahid M; Elkeles, Robert S; Stephens, Jeffrey W; Ireland, Helen; Humphries, Steve E

2014-09-01

To determine the sequence variant of TLL1 gene (rs1503298, T > C) in three British cohorts (PREDICT, UDACS and ED) of patients with type-2 Diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in order to assess its association with coronary heart disease (CHD). Analytical study. UCL, London, UK. Participants were genotyped in 2011-2012 for TLL1 SNP. Samples and related information were previously collected in 2001-2003 for PREDICT, and in 2001-2002 for UDACS and ED groups. Patients included in PREDICT (n=600), UDACS (n=1020) and ED (n=1240) had Diabetes. TLL1 SNP (rs1503298, T > C) was genotyped using TaqMan technology. Allele frequencies were compared using c2 test, and tested for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The risk of disease was assessed from Odds ratios (OR) with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Moreover, for the PREDICT cohort, the SNP association was tested with Coronary Artery Calcification (CAC) scores. No significant association was found for this SNP with CHD or CAC scores in these cohorts. This SNP could not be confirmed as a risk factor for CHD in T2DM patients. However, the low power of thesmall sample size available is a limitation to the modest effect on risk. Further studies in larger samples would be useful.

Reference Reactor Module for the Affordable Fission Surface Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poston, David I.; Kapernick, Richard J.; Dixon, David D.; Amiri, Benjamin W.; Marcille, Thomas F.

2008-01-01

Surface fission power systems on the Moon and Mars may provide the first US application of fission reactor technology in space since 1965. The requirements of many surface power applications allow the consideration of systems with much less development risk than most other space reactor applications, because of modest power (10s of kWe) and no driving need for minimal mass (allowing temperatures <1000 K). The Affordable Fission Surface Power System (AFSPS) study was completed by NASA/DOE to determine the cost of a modest performance, low-technical risk surface power system. This paper describes the reference AFSPS reactor module concept, which is designed to provide a net power of 40 kWe for 8 years on the lunar surface; note, the system has been designed with technologies that are fully compatible with a Martian surface application. The reactor concept uses stainless-steel based, UO2-fueled, liquid metal-cooled fission reactor coupled to free-piston Stirling converters. The reactor shielding approach utilizes both in-situ and launched shielding to keep the dose to astronauts much lower than the natural background radiation on the lunar surface. One of the important ``affordability'' attributes is that the concept has been designed to minimize both the technical and programmatic safety risk.

Relapse Risk Assessment for Schizophrenia Patients (RASP): A New Self-Report Screening Tool.

PubMed

Velligan, Dawn; Carpenter, William; Waters, Heidi C; Gerlanc, Nicole M; Legacy, Susan N; Ruetsch, Charles

2018-01-01

The Relapse Assessment for Schizophrenia Patients (RASP) was developed as a six-question self-report screener that measures indicators of Increased Anxiety and Social Isolation to assess patient stability and predict imminent relapse. This paper describes the development and psychometric characteristics of the RASP. The RASP and Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) were administered to patients with schizophrenia (n=166) three separate times. Chart data were collected on a subsample of patients (n=81). Psychometric analyses of RASP included tests of reliability, construct validity, and concurrent validity of items. Factors from RASP were correlated with subscales from PANSS (sensitivity to change and criterion validity [agreement between RASP and evidence of relapse]). Test-retest reliability returned modest to strong agreement at the item level and strong agreement at the questionnaire level. RASP showed good item response curves and internal consistency for the total instrument and within each of the two subscales (Increased Anxiety and Social Isolation). RASP Total Score and subscales showed good concurrent validity when correlated with PANSS Total Score, Positive, Excitement, and Anxiety subscales. RASP correctly predicted relapse in 67% of cases, with good specificity and negative predictive power and acceptable positive predictive power and sensitivity. The reliability and validity data presented support the use of RASP in settings where addition of a brief self-report assessment of relapse risk among patients with schizophrenia may be of benefit. Ease of use and scoring, and the ability to administer without clinical supervision allows for routine administration and assessment of relapse risk.

New Markers of Dietary Added Sugar Intake

PubMed Central

Davy, Brenda; Jahren, Hope

2016-01-01

Purpose of review Added sugar (AS) consumption is associated with adverse health outcomes including weight gain and cardio-metabolic disease, yet the reliance on self-reported methods to determine AS intake continues to be a significant research limitation. The purpose of this review is to summarize recent advances in the development of two potential predictive biomarkers of added sugar intake: δ13C and urinary sugar excretion. Recent findings The results of numerous cross-sectional investigations have indicated modest associations of the δ13C sugar biomarker measured in a variety of sample types (e.g., fingerstick blood, serum, red blood cells, hair) with self-reported AS and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake, and δ13C values have been reported to change over time with changes in reported SSB intake. Results from large-scale trials have suggested modest associations of urinary sugar excretion with reported sugar intake, and a dose-response relation has been demonstrated between urinary sugar excretion and actual sugar intake. Summary Valid markers of sugar intake are urgently needed to more definitively determine the health consequences of AS intake. Adequately-powered controlled feeding studies are needed to validate and compare these two biomarkers of sugar intake, and to determine what individual characteristics and conditions impact biomarker results. PMID:27137898

Case-mix adjustment of consumer reports about managed behavioral health care and health plans.

PubMed

Eselius, Laura L; Cleary, Paul D; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Huskamp, Haiden A; Busch, Susan H

2008-12-01

To develop a model for adjusting patients' reports of behavioral health care experiences on the Experience of Care and Health Outcomes (ECHO) survey to allow for fair comparisons across health plans. Survey responses from 4,068 individuals enrolled in 21 managed behavioral health plans who received behavioral health care within the previous year (response rate = 48 percent). Potential case-mix adjustors were evaluated by combining information about their predictive power and the amount of within- and between-plan variability. Changes in plan scores and rankings due to case-mix adjustment were quantified. The final case-mix adjustment model included self-reported mental health status, self-reported general health status, alcohol/drug treatment, age, education, and race/ethnicity. The impact of adjustment on plan report scores was modest, but large enough to change some plan rankings. Adjusting plan report scores on the ECHO survey for differences in patient characteristics had modest effects, but still may be important to maintain the credibility of patient reports as a quality metric. Differences between those with self-reported fair/poor health compared with those in excellent/very good health varied by plan, suggesting quality differences associated with health status and underscoring the importance of collecting quality information.

Statistical-learning strategies generate only modestly performing predictive models for urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate: A comparison of conventional and machine-learning methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yahya, Noorazrul, E-mail: noorazrul.yahya@research.uwa.edu.au; Ebert, Martin A.; Bulsara, Max

Purpose: Given the paucity of available data concerning radiotherapy-induced urinary toxicity, it is important to ensure derivation of the most robust models with superior predictive performance. This work explores multiple statistical-learning strategies for prediction of urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate. Methods: The performance of logistic regression, elastic-net, support-vector machine, random forest, neural network, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to predict urinary symptoms was analyzed using data from 754 participants accrued by TROG03.04-RADAR. Predictive features included dose-surface data, comorbidities, and medication-intake. Four symptoms were analyzed: dysuria, haematuria, incontinence, and frequency, each with three definitions (grade ≥more » 1, grade ≥ 2 and longitudinal) with event rate between 2.3% and 76.1%. Repeated cross-validations producing matched models were implemented. A synthetic minority oversampling technique was utilized in endpoints with rare events. Parameter optimization was performed on the training data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare performance using sample size to detect differences of ≥0.05 at the 95% confidence level. Results: Logistic regression, elastic-net, random forest, MARS, and support-vector machine were the highest-performing statistical-learning strategies in 3, 3, 3, 2, and 1 endpoints, respectively. Logistic regression, MARS, elastic-net, random forest, neural network, and support-vector machine were the best, or were not significantly worse than the best, in 7, 7, 5, 5, 3, and 1 endpoints. The best-performing statistical model was for dysuria grade ≥ 1 with AUROC ± standard deviation of 0.649 ± 0.074 using MARS. For longitudinal frequency and dysuria grade ≥ 1, all strategies produced AUROC>0.6 while all haematuria endpoints and longitudinal incontinence models produced AUROC<0.6. Conclusions: Logistic regression and MARS were most likely to be the best-performing strategy for the prediction of urinary symptoms with elastic-net and random forest producing competitive results. The predictive power of the models was modest and endpoint-dependent. New features, including spatial dose maps, may be necessary to achieve better models.« less

Dietary and exercise change following acute cardiac syndrome onset: A latent class growth modelling analysis.

PubMed

Bennett, Paul; Gruszczynska, Ewa; Marke, Victoria

2016-10-01

The present study aim determine sub-group trajectories of change on measures of diet and exercise following acute coronary syndrome. 150 participants were assessed in hospital, 1 month and 6 months subsequently on measures including physical activity, diet, illness beliefs, coping and mood. Change trajectories were measured using latent class growth modelling. Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict class membership. These analyses revealed changes in exercise were confined to a sub-group of participants already reporting relatively high exercise levels; those eating less healthily evidenced modest dietary improvements. Coping, gender, depression and perceived control predicted group membership to a modest degree. © The Author(s) 2015.

Observational evidence of dust evolution in galactic extinction curves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Casu, Silvia; Mulas, Giacomo

Although structural and optical properties of hydrogenated amorphous carbons are known to respond to varying physical conditions, most conventional extinction models are basically curve fits with modest predictive power. We compare an evolutionary model of the physical properties of carbonaceous grain mantles with their determination by homogeneously fitting observationally derived Galactic extinction curves with the same physically well-defined dust model. We find that a large sample of observed Galactic extinction curves are compatible with the evolutionary scenario underlying such a model, requiring physical conditions fully consistent with standard density, temperature, radiation field intensity, and average age of diffuse interstellar clouds.more » Hence, through the study of interstellar extinction we may, in principle, understand the evolutionary history of the diffuse interstellar clouds.« less

Hadronic Form Factors in Asymptotically Free Field Theories

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Gross, D. J.; Treiman, S. B.

1974-01-01

The breakdown of Bjorken scaling in asymptotically free gauge theories of the strong interactions is explored for its implications on the large q{sup 2} behavior of nucleon form factors. Duality arguments of Bloom and Gilman suggest a connection between the form factors and the threshold properties of the deep inelastic structure functions. The latter are addressed directly in an analysis of asymptotically free theories; and through the duality connection we are then led to statements about the form factors. For very large q{sup 2} the form factors are predicted to fall faster than any inverse power of q{sup 2}. For the more modest range of q{sup 2} reached in existing experiments the agreement with data is fairly good, though this may well be fortuitous. Extrapolations beyond this range are presented.

Quantifying the AGN-driven outflows in ULIRGs (QUADROS) III: Measurements of the radii and kinetic powers of 8 near-nuclear outflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, R. A. W.; Tadhunter, C. N.; Rose, M.; Rodríguez Zaurín, J.

2018-05-01

As part of the QUADROS project to quantify the impact of AGN-driven outflows in rapidly evolving galaxies in the local universe, we present observations of 8 nearby ULIRGs (0.04 < z < 0.2) taken with the ISIS spectrograph on the William Herschel Telescope (WHT), and also summarize the results of the project as a whole. Consistent with Rose et al. (2018), we find that the outflow regions are compact (0.08 < R_{[O III]} < 1.5 kpc), and the electron densities measured using the [S II], [O II] trans-auroral emission-line ratios are relatively high (2.5 < log ne (cm-3) < 4.5, median log ne (cm-3) ˜ 3.1). Many of the outflow regions are also significantly reddened (median E(B - V) ˜ 0.5). Assuming that the de-projected outflow velocities are represented by the 5^{th} percentile velocities (v05) of the broad, blueshifted components of [O III] λ5007, we calculate relatively modest mass outflow rates (0.1 < \\dot{M} < 20 M⊙ yr-1, median \\dot{M} ˜ 2 M⊙ yr-1), and find kinetic powers as a fraction of the AGN bolometric luminosity (\\dot{F} = \\dot{E}/L_bol) in the range 0.02 < \\dot{F} < 3 per cent, median \\dot{F} ˜ 0.3 per cent). The latter estimates are in line with the predictions of multi-stage outflow models, or single-stage models in which only a modest fraction of the initial kinetic power of the inner disk winds is transferred to the larger-scale outflows. Considering the QUADROS sample as a whole, we find no clear evidence for correlations between the properties of the outflows and the bolometric luminosities of the AGN, albeit based on a sample that covers a relatively small range in Lbol. Overall, our results suggest that there is a significant intrinsic scatter in outflow properties of ULIRGs for a given AGN luminosity.

School of Shock: Film, Television and Anal Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosewarne, Lauren

2015-01-01

Since their inception, film and television have been accused of having all kinds of magical powers to alter behaviour, coerce malfeasance and encourage debauchery. Decades of media theory later, the powers of persuasion are in fact thought to be much more modest. One area where popular media is considered to be particularly influential is…

Hummingbird wing efficacy depends on aspect ratio and compares with helicopter rotors

PubMed Central

Kruyt, Jan W.; Quicazán-Rubio, Elsa M.; van Heijst, GertJan F.; Altshuler, Douglas L.; Lentink, David

2014-01-01

Hummingbirds are the only birds that can sustain hovering. This unique flight behaviour comes, however, at high energetic cost. Based on helicopter and aeroplane design theory, we expect that hummingbird wing aspect ratio (AR), which ranges from about 3.0 to 4.5, determines aerodynamic efficacy. Previous quasi-steady experiments with a wing spinner set-up provide no support for this prediction. To test this more carefully, we compare the quasi-steady hover performance of 26 wings, from 12 hummingbird taxa. We spun the wings at angular velocities and angles of attack that are representative for every species and measured lift and torque more precisely. The power (aerodynamic torque × angular velocity) required to lift weight depends on aerodynamic efficacy, which is measured by the power factor. Our comparative analysis shows that AR has a modest influence on lift and drag forces, as reported earlier, but interspecific differences in power factor are large. During the downstroke, the power required to hover decreases for larger AR wings at the angles of attack at which hummingbirds flap their wings (p < 0.05). Quantitative flow visualization demonstrates that variation in hover power among hummingbird wings is driven by similar stable leading edge vortices that delay stall during the down- and upstroke. A side-by-side aerodynamic performance comparison of hummingbird wings and an advanced micro helicopter rotor shows that they are remarkably similar. PMID:25079868

Energy Storage (II): Developing Advanced Technologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, Arthur L

1974-01-01

Energy storage, considered by some scientists to be the best technological and economic advancement after advanced nuclear power, still rates only modest funding for research concerning the development of advanced technologies. (PEB)

Electric utility of the year for 1984: Potomac Electric Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1984-11-01

High performance, efficiency improvements, a modest construction program, a clear balance sheet, and an effort to expend power plant life were among the qualities that earned Potomac Electric Power (PEPCO) the title of 1984 Utility of the Year. Other key elements in the utility's selection were its strategy for purchasing power, a load management plan, diversified investments into subsidiary businesses, community concern that considers the aesthetics of transmission facilities, and its interest in personnel development, especially among minorities. 3 figures.

Adaptive dysfunction of selenoproteins from the perspective of the triage theory: why modest selenium deficiency may increase risk of diseases of aging.

PubMed

McCann, Joyce C; Ames, Bruce N

2011-06-01

The triage theory proposes that modest deficiency of any vitamin or mineral (V/M) could increase age-related diseases. V/M-dependent proteins required for short-term survival and/or reproduction (i.e., "essential") are predicted to be protected on V/M deficiency over other "nonessential" V/M-dependent proteins needed only for long-term health. The result is accumulation of insidious damage, increasing disease risk. We successfully tested the theory against published evidence on vitamin K. Here, we review about half of the 25 known mammalian selenoproteins; all of those with mouse knockout or human mutant phenotypes that could be used as criteria for a classification of essential or nonessential. Five selenoproteins (Gpx4, Txnrd1, Txnrd2, Dio3, and Sepp1) were classified as essential and 7 (Gpx1, Gpx 2, Gpx 3, Dio1, Dio2, Msrb1, and SelN) nonessential. On modest selenium (Se) deficiency, nonessential selenoprotein activities and concentrations are preferentially lost, with one exception (Dio1 in the thyroid, which we predict is conditionally essential). Mechanisms include the requirement of a special form of tRNA sensitive to Se deficiency for translation of nonessential selenoprotein mRNAs except Dio1. The same set of age-related diseases and conditions, including cancer, heart disease, and immune dysfunction, are prospectively associated with modest Se deficiency and also with genetic dysfunction of nonessential selenoproteins, suggesting that Se deficiency could be a causal factor, a possibility strengthened by mechanistic evidence. Modest Se deficiency is common in many parts of the world; optimal intake could prevent future disease.

Translations on USSR Science and Technology, Physical Sciences and Technology, Number 16

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-08-05

34INVESTIGATION OF SPLITTING OF LIGHT NUCLEI WITH HIGH-ENERGY y -RAYS WITH THE METHOD OF WILSON’S CHAMBER OPERATING IN POWERFUL BEAMS OF ELECTRONIC...boast high reliability, high speed, and extremely modest power requirements. Information oh the Screen Visual display devices greatly facilitate...area of application of these units Includes navigation, control of power systems, machine tools, and manufac- turing processes. Th» ^»abilities of

Manipulating Public Expectations; Pre- and Postprimary Statements in the '76 Campaign.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freshley, Dwight L.

Predicting the outcome of a primary election gives a candidate more exposure to the press, gives him or her a chance to predict modestly and then look better than the prediction, and helps create interest in the election and thereby increase voter turnout. During the 1976 Presidential primaries, most candidates adhered to the classic rule to make…

The Effectiveness of Academic Interest Scales in Predicting College Achievement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Richard W.

The predictive validities of various SVIB academic interest scales were assessed with first semester freshman males at the University of Massachusetts. Both the Rust and Ryan and the Campbell and Johansson scales contributed significantly, albeit modestly, to a multiple correlation coefficient consisting of high school rank and scholastic aptitude…

Predicting Successful Treatment Outcome of Web-Based Self-help for Problem Drinkers: Secondary Analysis From a Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Kramer, Jeannet; Keuken, Max; Smit, Filip; Schippers, Gerard; Cuijpers, Pim

2008-01-01

Background Web-based self-help interventions for problem drinking are coming of age. They have shown promising results in terms of cost-effectiveness, and they offer opportunities to reach out on a broad scale to problem drinkers. The question now is whether certain groups of problem drinkers benefit more from such Web-based interventions than others. Objective We sought to identify baseline, client-related predictors of the effectiveness of Drinking Less, a 24/7, free-access, interactive, Web-based self-help intervention without therapist guidance for problem drinkers who want to reduce their alcohol consumption. The intervention is based on cognitive-behavioral and self-control principles. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of data from a pragmatic randomized trial with follow-up at 6 and 12 months. Participants (N = 261) were adult problem drinkers in the Dutch general population with a weekly alcohol consumption above 210 g of ethanol for men or 140 g for women, or consumption of at least 60 g (men) or 40 g (women) one or more days a week over the past 3 months. Six baseline participant characteristics were designated as putative predictors of treatment response: (1) gender, (2) education, (3) Internet use competence (sociodemographics), (4) mean weekly alcohol consumption, (5) prior professional help for alcohol problems (level of problem drinking), and (6) participants’ expectancies of Web-based interventions for problem drinking. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses, using last-observation-carried-forward (LOCF) data, and regression imputation (RI) were performed to deal with loss to follow-up. Statistical tests for interaction terms were conducted and linear regression analysis was performed to investigate whether the participants’ characteristics as measured at baseline predicted positive treatment responses at 6- and 12-month follow-ups. Results At 6 months, prior help for alcohol problems predicted a small, marginally significant positive treatment outcome in the RI model only (beta = .18, P = .05, R2 = .11). At 12 months, females displayed modest predictive power in both imputation models (LOCF: beta = .22, P = .045, R2 = .02; regression: beta = .27, P = .01, R2 = .03). Those with higher levels of education exhibited modest predictive power in the LOCF model only (beta = .33, P = .01, R2 = .03). Conclusions Although female and more highly educated users appeared slightly more likely to derive benefit from the Drinking Less intervention, none of the baseline characteristics we studied persuasively predicted a favorable treatment outcome. The Web-based intervention therefore seems well suited for a heterogeneous group of problem drinkers and could hence be offered as a first-step treatment in a stepped-care approach directed at problem drinkers in the general population. Trial Registration International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 47285230; http://www.controlled-trials.com/isrctn47285230 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/5cSR2sMkp). PMID:19033150

Predicting successful treatment outcome of web-based self-help for problem drinkers: secondary analysis from a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Riper, Heleen; Kramer, Jeannet; Keuken, Max; Smit, Filip; Schippers, Gerard; Cuijpers, Pim

2008-11-22

Web-based self-help interventions for problem drinking are coming of age. They have shown promising results in terms of cost-effectiveness, and they offer opportunities to reach out on a broad scale to problem drinkers. The question now is whether certain groups of problem drinkers benefit more from such Web-based interventions than others. We sought to identify baseline, client-related predictors of the effectiveness of Drinking Less, a 24/7, free-access, interactive, Web-based self-help intervention without therapist guidance for problem drinkers who want to reduce their alcohol consumption. The intervention is based on cognitive-behavioral and self-control principles. We conducted secondary analysis of data from a pragmatic randomized trial with follow-up at 6 and 12 months. Participants (N = 261) were adult problem drinkers in the Dutch general population with a weekly alcohol consumption above 210 g of ethanol for men or 140 g for women, or consumption of at least 60 g (men) or 40 g (women) one or more days a week over the past 3 months. Six baseline participant characteristics were designated as putative predictors of treatment response: (1) gender, (2) education, (3) Internet use competence (sociodemographics), (4) mean weekly alcohol consumption, (5) prior professional help for alcohol problems (level of problem drinking), and (6) participants' expectancies of Web-based interventions for problem drinking. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses, using last-observation-carried-forward (LOCF) data, and regression imputation (RI) were performed to deal with loss to follow-up. Statistical tests for interaction terms were conducted and linear regression analysis was performed to investigate whether the participants' characteristics as measured at baseline predicted positive treatment responses at 6- and 12-month follow-ups. At 6 months, prior help for alcohol problems predicted a small, marginally significant positive treatment outcome in the RI model only (beta = .18, P = .05, R(2) = .11). At 12 months, females displayed modest predictive power in both imputation models (LOCF: beta = .22, P = .045, R(2) = .02; regression: beta = .27, P = .01, R(2) = .03). Those with higher levels of education exhibited modest predictive power in the LOCF model only (beta = .33, P = .01, R(2) = .03). Although female and more highly educated users appeared slightly more likely to derive benefit from the Drinking Less intervention, none of the baseline characteristics we studied persuasively predicted a favorable treatment outcome. The Web-based intervention therefore seems well suited for a heterogeneous group of problem drinkers and could hence be offered as a first-step treatment in a stepped-care approach directed at problem drinkers in the general population. International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 47285230; http://www.controlled-trials.com/isrctn47285230 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/5cSR2sMkp).

Electron heating due to microwave photoexcitation in the high mobility GaAs/AlGaAs two dimensional electron system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramanayaka, A. N.; Mani, R. G.; Wegscheider, W.

2013-12-04

We extract the electron temperature in the microwave photo-excited high mobility GaAs/AlGaAs two dimensional electron system (2DES) by studying the influence of microwave radiation on the amplitude of Shubnikov-de Haas oscillations (SdHOs) in a regime where the cyclotron frequency, ω{sub c}, and the microwave angular frequency, ω, satisfy 2ω ≤ ω{sub c} ≤ 3.5ω The results indicate that increasing the incident microwave power has a weak effect on the amplitude of the SdHOs and therefore the electron temperature, in comparison to the influence of modest temperature changes on the dark-specimen SdH effect. The results indicate negligible electron heating under modestmore » microwave photo-excitation, in good agreement with theoretical predictions.« less

Physical controls on total and methylmercury concentrations in streams and lakes of the northeastern USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, J.B.; Kamman, N.C.; Clair, T.A.; Chalmers, A.

2005-01-01

The physical factors controlling total mercury (HgT) and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations in lakes and streams of northeastern USA were assessed in a regional data set containing 693 HgT and 385 corresponding MeHg concentrations in surface waters. Multiple regression models using watershed characteristics and climatic variables explained 38% or less of the variance in HgT and MeHg. Land cover percentages and soil permeability generally provided modest predictive power. Percent wetlands alone explained 19% of the variance in MeHg in streams at low-flow, and it was the only significant (p < 0.02) predictor for MeHg in lakes, albeit explaining only 7% of the variance. When stream discharge was added as a variable it became the dominant predictor for HgT in streams, improving the model r 2 from 0.19 to 0.38. Stream discharge improved the MeHg model more modestly, from r 2 of 0.25 to 0.33. Methylation efficiency (MeHg/HgT) was modeled well (r 2 of 0.78) when a seasonal term was incorporated (sine wave with annual period). Physical models explained 18% of the variance in fish Hg concentrations in 134 lakes and 55% in 20 reservoirs. Our results highlight the important role of seasonality and short-term hydrologic changes to the delivery of Hg to water bodies. ?? 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Relationships between episodic memory performance prediction and sociodemographic variables among healthy older adults.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Glaucia Martins; Cachioni, Meire; Falcão, Deusivania; Batistoni, Samila; Lopes, Andrea; Guimarães, Vanessa; Lima-Silva, Thais Bento; Neri, Anita Liberalesso; Yassuda, Mônica Sanches

2015-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that performance prediction, an aspect of metamemory, may be associated with objective performance on memory tasks. The objective of the study was to describe memory prediction before performing an episodic memory task, in community-dwelling older adults, stratified by sex, age group and educational level. Additionally, the association between predicted and objective performance on a memory task was investigated. The study was based on data from 359 participants in the FIBRA study carried out at Ermelino Matarazzo, São Paulo. Memory prediction was assessed by posing the question: "If someone showed you a sheet with drawings of 10 pictures to observe for 30 seconds, how many pictures do you think you could remember without seeing the sheet?". Memory performance was assessed by the memorization of 10 black and white pictures from the Brief Cognitive Screening Battery (BCSB). No differences were found between men and women, nor for age group and educational level, in memory performance prediction before carrying out the memory task. There was a modest association (rho=0.11, p=0.041) between memory prediction and performance in immediate memory. On multivariate linear regression analyses, memory performance prediction was moderately significantly associated with immediate memory (p=0.061). In this study, sociodemographic variables did not influence memory prediction, which was only modestly associated with immediate memory on the Brief Cognitive Screening Battery (BCSB).

Psychiatric Diagnoses in Historic and Contemporary Military Cohorts: Combat Deployment and the Healthy Warrior Effect

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-23

In general, the positive predictive value of screening questionnaires is quite poor when disease prevalence is modest/rare, as in the ex- ample of...of sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values with disease prevalence . Stat Med 1997;16:981–91. 26. Wolfe J, Erickson DJ

Simulations of the modified gap experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, Gerrit T.; Benjamin, Richard; Kooker, Douglas

2017-01-01

Modified gap experiment (test) hydrocode simulations predict the trends seen in experimental excess free surface velocity versus input pressure curves for explosives with both large and modest failure diameters. Simulations were conducted for explosive "A", an explosive with a large failure diameter, and for cast TNT, which has a modest failure diameter. Using the best available reactive rate models, the simulations predicted sustained ignition thresholds similar to experiment. This is a threshold where detonation is likely given a long enough run distance. For input pressures greater than the sustained ignition threshold pressure, the simulations predicted too little velocity for explosive "A" and too much velocity for TNT. It was found that a better comparison of experiment and simulation requires additional experimental data for both explosives. It was observed that the choice of reactive rate model for cast TNT can lead to large differences in the predicted modified gap experiment result. The cause of the difference is that the same data was not used to parameterize both models; one set of data was more shock reactive than the other.

Predicting consumer behavior with Web search.

PubMed

Goel, Sharad; Hofman, Jake M; Lahaie, Sébastien; Pennock, David M; Watts, Duncan J

2010-10-12

Recent work has demonstrated that Web search volume can "predict the present," meaning that it can be used to accurately track outcomes such as unemployment levels, auto and home sales, and disease prevalence in near real time. Here we show that what consumers are searching for online can also predict their collective future behavior days or even weeks in advance. Specifically we use search query volume to forecast the opening weekend box-office revenue for feature films, first-month sales of video games, and the rank of songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, finding in all cases that search counts are highly predictive of future outcomes. We also find that search counts generally boost the performance of baseline models fit on other publicly available data, where the boost varies from modest to dramatic, depending on the application in question. Finally, we reexamine previous work on tracking flu trends and show that, perhaps surprisingly, the utility of search data relative to a simple autoregressive model is modest. We conclude that in the absence of other data sources, or where small improvements in predictive performance are material, search queries provide a useful guide to the near future.

Predicting consumer behavior with Web search

PubMed Central

Goel, Sharad; Hofman, Jake M.; Lahaie, Sébastien; Pennock, David M.; Watts, Duncan J.

2010-01-01

Recent work has demonstrated that Web search volume can “predict the present,” meaning that it can be used to accurately track outcomes such as unemployment levels, auto and home sales, and disease prevalence in near real time. Here we show that what consumers are searching for online can also predict their collective future behavior days or even weeks in advance. Specifically we use search query volume to forecast the opening weekend box-office revenue for feature films, first-month sales of video games, and the rank of songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, finding in all cases that search counts are highly predictive of future outcomes. We also find that search counts generally boost the performance of baseline models fit on other publicly available data, where the boost varies from modest to dramatic, depending on the application in question. Finally, we reexamine previous work on tracking flu trends and show that, perhaps surprisingly, the utility of search data relative to a simple autoregressive model is modest. We conclude that in the absence of other data sources, or where small improvements in predictive performance are material, search queries provide a useful guide to the near future. PMID:20876140

Impulse oscillometry at preschool age is a strong predictor of lung function by flow-volume spirometry in adolescence.

PubMed

Lauhkonen, Eero; Riikonen, Riikka; Törmänen, Sari; Koponen, Petri; Nuolivirta, Kirsi; Helminen, Merja; Toikka, Jyri; Korppi, Matti

2018-05-01

The transition from early childhood wheezing to persistent asthma is linked to lung function impairment over time. Little is known how the methods used to study lung function at different ages correlate longitudinally. Sixty-four children with a history of hospitalization for bronchiolitis before 6 months of age were prospectively studied with impulse oscillometry (IOS) at the mean age of 6.3 years and these preschool IOS results were compared with flow-volume spirometry (FVS) measurements at mean age of 11.4 years. The baseline respiratory system resistance at 5 Hz (Rrs5) showed a modest statistically significant correlation with all baseline FVS parameters except FVC. The post-bronchodilator (post-BD) Rrs5 showed a modest statistically significant correlation with post-BD FEV 1 and FEV 1 /FVC. The bronchodilator-induced decrease in Rrs5 showed a modest statistically significant correlation with the percent increase in FEV 1 . Baseline and post-BD respiratory reactance at 5 Hz (Xrs5) showed a modest statistically significant correlation with baseline and post-BD FVS parameters except post-BD FEV 1 /FVC, respectively, and post-BD Xrs5 showed a strong correlation with post-BD FVC (ρ = 0.61) and post-BD FEV 1 (ρ = 0.59). In adjusted linear regression, preschool Xrs5 remained as a statistically significant independent predictor of FVS parameters in adolescence; the one-unit decrease in the Z-score of preschool post-BD Xrs5 predicted 9.6% lower post-BD FEV 1 , 9.3% lower post-BD FVC, and 9.7% lower post-BD MEF 50 when expressed as %-predicted parameters. Persistent post-BD small airway impairment in children with a history of bronchiolitis detected with IOS at preschool age predicted FVS results measured in early adolescence. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetic and epigenetic control of metabolic health.

PubMed

Schwenk, Robert Wolfgang; Vogel, Heike; Schürmann, Annette

2013-09-25

Obesity is characterized as an excess accumulation of body fat resulting from a positive energy balance. It is the major risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D). The evidence for familial aggregation of obesity and its associated metabolic diseases is substantial. To date, about 150 genetic loci identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are linked with obesity and T2D, each accounting for only a small proportion of the predicted heritability. However, the percentage of overall trait variance explained by these associated loci is modest (~5-10% for T2D, ~2% for BMI). The lack of powerful genetic associations suggests that heritability is not entirely attributable to gene variations. Some of the familial aggregation as well as many of the effects of environmental exposures, may reflect epigenetic processes. This review summarizes our current knowledge on the genetic basis to individual risk of obesity and T2D, and explores the potential role of epigenetic contribution.

Detection of feigned mental disorders on the personality assessment inventory: a discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Rogers, R; Sewell, K W; Morey, L C; Ustad, K L

1996-12-01

Psychological assessment with multiscale inventories is largely dependent on the honesty and forthrightness of those persons evaluated. We investigated the effectiveness of the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI) in detecting participants feigning three specific disorders: schizophrenia, major depression, and generalized anxiety disorder. With a simulation design, we tested the PAI validity scales on 166 naive (undergraduates with minimal preparation) and 80 sophisticated (doctoral psychology students with 1 week preparation) participants. We compared their results to persons with the designated disorders: schizophrenia (n = 45), major depression (n = 136), and generalized anxiety disorder (n = 40). Although moderately effective with naive simulators, the validity scales evidenced only modest positive predictive power with their sophisticated counterparts. Therefore, we performed a two-stage discriminant analysis that yielded a moderately high hit rate (> 80%) that was maintained in the cross-validation sample, irrespective of the feigned disorder or the sophistication of the simulators.

Individual Differences In The Executive Control Of Attention, Memory, And Thought, And Their Associations With Schizotypy

PubMed Central

Kane, Michael J.; Meier, Matt E.; Smeekens, Bridget A.; Gross, Georgina M.; Chun, Charlotte A.; Silvia, Paul J.; Kwapil, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

A large correlational study took a latent-variable approach to the generality of executive control by testing the individual-differences structure of executive-attention capabilities and assessing their prediction of schizotypy, a multidimensional construct (with negative, positive, disorganized, and paranoid factors) conveying risk for schizophrenia. Although schizophrenia is convincingly linked to executive deficits, the schizotypy literature is equivocal. Subjects completed tasks of working memory capacity (WMC), attention restraint (inhibiting prepotent responses), and attention constraint (focusing visual attention amid distractors), the latter two in an effort to fractionate the “inhibition” construct. We also assessed mind-wandering propensity (via in-task thought probes) and coefficient of variation in response times (RT CoV) from several tasks as more novel indices of executive attention. WMC, attention restraint, attention constraint, mind wandering, and RT CoV were correlated but separable constructs, indicating some distinctions among “attention control” abilities; WMC correlated more strongly with attentional restraint than constraint, and mind wandering correlated more strongly with attentional restraint, attentional constraint, and RT CoV than with WMC. Across structural models, no executive construct predicted negative schizotypy and only mind wandering and RT CoV consistently (but modestly) predicted positive, disorganized, and paranoid schizotypy; stalwart executive constructs in the schizophrenia literature — WMC and attention restraint — showed little to no predictive power, beyond restraint’s prediction of paranoia. Either executive deficits are consequences rather than risk factors for schizophrenia, or executive failures barely precede or precipitate diagnosable schizophrenia symptoms. PMID:27454042

Rheologic effects of crystal preferred orientation in upper mantle flow near plate boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackman, Donna; Castelnau, Olivier; Dawson, Paul; Boyce, Donald

2016-04-01

Observations of anisotropy provide insight into upper mantle processes. Flow-induced mineral alignment provides a link between mantle deformation patterns and seismic anisotropy. Our study focuses on the rheologic effects of crystal preferred orientation (CPO), which develops during mantle flow, in order to assess whether corresponding anisotropic viscosity could significantly impact the pattern of flow. We employ a coupled nonlinear numerical method to link CPO and the flow model via a local viscosity tensor field that quantifies the stress/strain-rate response of a textured mineral aggregate. For a given flow field, the CPO is computed along streamlines using a self-consistent texture model and is then used to update the viscosity tensor field. The new viscosity tensor field defines the local properties for the next flow computation. This iteration produces a coupled nonlinear model for which seismic signatures can be predicted. Results thus far confirm that CPO can impact flow pattern by altering rheology in directionally-dependent ways, particularly in regions of high flow gradient. Multiple iterations run for an initial, linear stress/strain-rate case (power law exponent n=1) converge to a flow field and CPO distribution that are modestly different from the reference, scalar viscosity case. Upwelling rates directly below the spreading axis are slightly reduced and flow is focused somewhat toward the axis. Predicted seismic anisotropy differences are modest. P-wave anisotropy is a few percent greater in the flow 'corner', near the spreading axis, below the lithosphere and extending 40-100 km off axis. Predicted S-wave splitting differences would be below seafloor measurement limits. Calculations with non-linear stress/strain-rate relation, which is more realistic for olivine, indicate that effects are stronger than for the linear case. For n=2-3, the distribution and strength of CPO for the first iteration are greater than for n=1, although the fast seismic axis directions are similar. The greatest difference in CPO for the nonlinear cases develop at the flow 'corner' at depths of 10-30 km and 20-100 km off-axis. J index values up to 10% greater than the linear case are predicted near the lithosphere base in that region. Viscosity tensor components are notably altered in the nonlinear cases. Iterations between the texture and flow calculations for the non-linear cases are underway this winter; results will be reported in the presentation.

Assessing the Power of Exome Chips.

PubMed

Page, Christian Magnus; Baranzini, Sergio E; Mevik, Bjørn-Helge; Bos, Steffan Daniel; Harbo, Hanne F; Andreassen, Bettina Kulle

2015-01-01

Genotyping chips for rare and low-frequent variants have recently gained popularity with the introduction of exome chips, but the utility of these chips remains unclear. These chips were designed using exome sequencing data from mainly American-European individuals, enriched for a narrow set of common diseases. In addition, it is well-known that the statistical power of detecting associations with rare and low-frequent variants is much lower compared to studies exclusively involving common variants. We developed a simulation program adaptable to any exome chip design to empirically evaluate the power of the exome chips. We implemented the main properties of the Illumina HumanExome BeadChip array. The simulated data sets were used to assess the power of exome chip based studies for varying effect sizes and causal variant scenarios. We applied two widely-used statistical approaches for rare and low-frequency variants, which collapse the variants into genetic regions or genes. Under optimal conditions, we found that a sample size between 20,000 to 30,000 individuals were needed in order to detect modest effect sizes (0.5% < PAR > 1%) with 80% power. For small effect sizes (PAR <0.5%), 60,000-100,000 individuals were needed in the presence of non-causal variants. In conclusion, we found that at least tens of thousands of individuals are necessary to detect modest effects under optimal conditions. In addition, when using rare variant chips on cohorts or diseases they were not originally designed for, the identification of associated variants or genes will be even more challenging.

Linear transmitter design for MSAT terminals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkinson, Ross; Macleod, John; Beach, Mark; Bateman, Andrew

1990-01-01

One of the factors that will undoubtedly influence the choice of modulation format for mobile satellites, is the availability of cheap, power-efficient, linear amplifiers for mobile terminal equipment operating in the 1.5-1.7 GHz band. Transmitter linearity is not easily achieved at these frequencies, although high power (20W) class A/AB devices are becoming available. However, these components are expensive and require careful design to achieve a modest degree of linearity. In this paper an alternative approach to radio frequency (RF) power amplifier design for mobile satellite (MSAT) terminals using readily-available, power-efficient, and cheap class C devices in a feedback amplifier architecture is presented.

Design principles of a simple and safe 200-MW(thermal) nuclear district heating plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goetzmann, C.; Bittermann, D.; Gobel, A.

Kraftwerk Union AG has almost completed the development of a dedicated 200-MW(thermal) nuclear district heating plant to provide environmentally clean energy at a predictably low cost. The concept can easily be adapted to meet power requirements within the 100- to 500-MW(thermal) range. This technology is the product of the experience gained with large pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor power plants, with respect to both plant and fuel performance. The major development task is that of achieving sufficiently low capital cost by tailoring components and systems designed for large plants to the specific requirements of district heating. These requirementsmore » are small absolute power, low temperatures and pressures, and modest load following, all of which result in the characteristics that are summarized. A fully integrated primary system with natural circulation permits a very compact reactor building containing all safety-related systems and components. Plant safety is essentially guaranteed by inherent features. The reactor containment is tightly fitted around the reactor pressure vessel in such a way that, in the event of any postulated coolant leak, the core cannot become uncovered, even temporarily. Shutdown is assured by gravity drop of the control rods mounted above the core. Decay heat is removed from the core by means of natural circulation via dedicated intermediate circuits of external aircoolers.« less

Perspectives on Parent Discipline and Child Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grusec, Joan E.; Danyliuk, Tanya; Kil, Hali; O'Neill, David

2017-01-01

Effective discipline involves the use of negative consequences, including reasoning as well as modest levels of power assertion, to discourage unacceptable behavior. A brief history of changing views of discipline is presented and recent positions outlined. Successful discipline requires the imposition of clear and consistent rules, autonomy…

Seasonal drought predictability in Portugal using statistical-dynamical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, A. F. S.; Pires, C. A. L.

2016-08-01

Atmospheric forecasting and predictability are important to promote adaption and mitigation measures in order to minimize drought impacts. This study estimates hybrid (statistical-dynamical) long-range forecasts of the regional drought index SPI (3-months) over homogeneous regions from mainland Portugal, based on forecasts from the UKMO operational forecasting system, with lead-times up to 6 months. ERA-Interim reanalysis data is used for the purpose of building a set of SPI predictors integrating recent past information prior to the forecast launching. Then, the advantage of combining predictors with both dynamical and statistical background in the prediction of drought conditions at different lags is evaluated. A two-step hybridization procedure is performed, in which both forecasted and observed 500 hPa geopotential height fields are subjected to a PCA in order to use forecasted PCs and persistent PCs as predictors. A second hybridization step consists on a statistical/hybrid downscaling to the regional SPI, based on regression techniques, after the pre-selection of the statistically significant predictors. The SPI forecasts and the added value of combining dynamical and statistical methods are evaluated in cross-validation mode, using the R2 and binary event scores. Results are obtained for the four seasons and it was found that winter is the most predictable season, and that most of the predictive power is on the large-scale fields from past observations. The hybridization improves the downscaling based on the forecasted PCs, since they provide complementary information (though modest) beyond that of persistent PCs. These findings provide clues about the predictability of the SPI, particularly in Portugal, and may contribute to the predictability of crops yields and to some guidance on users (such as farmers) decision making process.

Illusions and Ignorance about the Family-Responsive Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kingston, Paul W.

1990-01-01

Contends American businesses have made modest headway in instituting family-responsive practices and that it is illusory to expect that market solutions will deliver good or equitable family policy in foreseeable future. Predicts uneven realization of the responsive workplace. (Author/ABL)

Educational Research in Educational Practice: Predictors of Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lysenko, Larysa V.; Abrami, Philip C.; Dagenais, Christian; Janosz, Michel

2014-01-01

This study investigates the predictors of school practitioners' (N = 2,425) use of educational research. The suggested model explained significantly but modestly the infrequent use of educational research by practitioners. Of the four factors in the study, "opinions about research" had the most explanatory power. The results are…

The Surprisingly Modest Relationship between SES and Educational Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harwell, Michael; Maeda, Yukiko; Bishop, Kyoungwon; Xie, Aolin

2017-01-01

Measures of socioeconomic status (SES) are routinely used in analyses of achievement data to increase statistical power, statistically control for the effects of SES, and enhance causality arguments under the premise that the SES-achievement relationship is moderate to strong. Empirical evidence characterizing the strength of the SES-achievement…

Individual differences in the executive control of attention, memory, and thought, and their associations with schizotypy.

PubMed

Kane, Michael J; Meier, Matt E; Smeekens, Bridget A; Gross, Georgina M; Chun, Charlotte A; Silvia, Paul J; Kwapil, Thomas R

2016-08-01

A large correlational study took a latent-variable approach to the generality of executive control by testing the individual-differences structure of executive-attention capabilities and assessing their prediction of schizotypy, a multidimensional construct (with negative, positive, disorganized, and paranoid factors) conveying risk for schizophrenia. Although schizophrenia is convincingly linked to executive deficits, the schizotypy literature is equivocal. Subjects completed tasks of working memory capacity (WMC), attention restraint (inhibiting prepotent responses), and attention constraint (focusing visual attention amid distractors), the latter 2 in an effort to fractionate the "inhibition" construct. We also assessed mind-wandering propensity (via in-task thought probes) and coefficient of variation in response times (RT CoV) from several tasks as more novel indices of executive attention. WMC, attention restraint, attention constraint, mind wandering, and RT CoV were correlated but separable constructs, indicating some distinctions among "attention control" abilities; WMC correlated more strongly with attentional restraint than constraint, and mind wandering correlated more strongly with attentional restraint, attentional constraint, and RT CoV than with WMC. Across structural models, no executive construct predicted negative schizotypy and only mind wandering and RT CoV consistently (but modestly) predicted positive, disorganized, and paranoid schizotypy; stalwart executive constructs in the schizophrenia literature-WMC and attention restraint-showed little to no predictive power, beyond restraint's prediction of paranoia. Either executive deficits are consequences rather than risk factors for schizophrenia, or executive failures barely precede or precipitate diagnosable schizophrenia symptoms. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Models for short term malaria prediction in Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

Briët, Olivier JT; Vounatsou, Penelope; Gunawardena, Dissanayake M; Galappaththy, Gawrie NL; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H

2008-01-01

Background Malaria in Sri Lanka is unstable and fluctuates in intensity both spatially and temporally. Although the case counts are dwindling at present, given the past history of resurgence of outbreaks despite effective control measures, the control programmes have to stay prepared. The availability of long time series of monitored/diagnosed malaria cases allows for the study of forecasting models, with an aim to developing a forecasting system which could assist in the efficient allocation of resources for malaria control. Methods Exponentially weighted moving average models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with seasonal components, and seasonal multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were compared on monthly time series of district malaria cases for their ability to predict the number of malaria cases one to four months ahead. The addition of covariates such as the number of malaria cases in neighbouring districts or rainfall were assessed for their ability to improve prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models. Results The best model for forecasting and the forecasting error varied strongly among the districts. The addition of rainfall as a covariate improved prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models modestly in some districts but worsened prediction in other districts. Improvement by adding rainfall was more frequent at larger forecasting horizons. Conclusion Heterogeneity of patterns of malaria in Sri Lanka requires regionally specific prediction models. Prediction error was large at a minimum of 22% (for one of the districts) for one month ahead predictions. The modest improvement made in short term prediction by adding rainfall as a covariate to these prediction models may not be sufficient to merit investing in a forecasting system for which rainfall data are routinely processed. PMID:18460204

Tell me who you are and I tell you how you feel: expected emotional reactions to success and failure are influenced by knowledge about a person's personality.

PubMed

Hareli, Shlomo; Sharabi, Moshe; Hess, Ursula

2011-08-01

The present research investigated the influence of knowledge about a person's modesty or arrogance on people's expectations regarding that person's emotional reactions to success and failure. Arrogance and modesty reflect the extent to which someone is likely to publicize their ability. Accordingly, we predicted that observers' expectations regarding a person's tendency to publicize their ability should inform expectations about the person's emotional reactions to success and failure. In two vignette studies, observers predicted the emotional state of a protagonist, as well as the probability that s/he will actually express that emotion and share the experience with others. For success, participants predicted a protagonist's pride, happiness, schadenfreude, and embarrassment if praised for a positive outcome. For failure, participants predicted anger, shame, guilt, sadness, and fear reactions. Across studies, personality information explained more variance than did gender or status. Results showed that the expectations for an arrogant person matched modal expectations for success, whereas for failure the expectations for the modest individual were closest to the modal expectations. Specifically, both modest and arrogant individuals were expected to suppress emotions that do not fit their self-presentational styles rather than to exaggerate expressions that do. This paper adds to our understanding of the information that people use to predict others' emotional reactions.

Boosted classification trees result in minor to modest improvement in the accuracy in classifying cardiovascular outcomes compared to conventional classification trees

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S

2011-01-01

Purpose: Classification trees are increasingly being used to classifying patients according to the presence or absence of a disease or health outcome. A limitation of classification trees is their limited predictive accuracy. In the data-mining and machine learning literature, boosting has been developed to improve classification. Boosting with classification trees iteratively grows classification trees in a sequence of reweighted datasets. In a given iteration, subjects that were misclassified in the previous iteration are weighted more highly than subjects that were correctly classified. Classifications from each of the classification trees in the sequence are combined through a weighted majority vote to produce a final classification. The authors' objective was to examine whether boosting improved the accuracy of classification trees for predicting outcomes in cardiovascular patients. Methods: We examined the utility of boosting classification trees for classifying 30-day mortality outcomes in patients hospitalized with either acute myocardial infarction or congestive heart failure. Results: Improvements in the misclassification rate using boosted classification trees were at best minor compared to when conventional classification trees were used. Minor to modest improvements to sensitivity were observed, with only a negligible reduction in specificity. For predicting cardiovascular mortality, boosted classification trees had high specificity, but low sensitivity. Conclusions: Gains in predictive accuracy for predicting cardiovascular outcomes were less impressive than gains in performance observed in the data mining literature. PMID:22254181

The Large Local Hole in the Galaxy Distribution: The 2MASS Galaxy Angular Power Spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frith, W. J.; Outram, P. J.; Shanks, T.

2005-06-01

We present new evidence for a large deficiency in the local galaxy distribution situated in the ˜4000 deg2 APM survey area. We use models guided by the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS) n(z) as a probe of the underlying large-scale structure. We first check the usefulness of this technique by comparing the 2dFGRS n(z) model prediction with the K-band and B-band number counts extracted from the 2MASS and 2dFGRS parent catalogues over the 2dFGRS Northern and Southern declination strips, before turning to a comparison with the APM counts. We find that the APM counts in both the B and K-bands indicate a deficiency in the local galaxy distribution of ˜30% to z ≈ 0.1 over the entire APM survey area. We examine the implied significance of such a large local hole, considering several possible forms for the real-space correlation function. We find that such a deficiency in the APM survey area indicates an excess of power at large scales over what is expected from the correlation function observed in 2dFGRS correlation function or predicted from ΛCDM Hubble Volume mock catalogues. In order to check further the clustering at large scales in the 2MASS data, we have calculated the angular power spectrum for 2MASS galaxies. Although in the linear regime (l<30), ΛCDM models can give a good fit to the 2MASS angular power spectrum, over a wider range (l<100) the power spectrum from Hubble Volume mock catalogues suggests that scale-dependent bias may be needed for ΛCDM to fit. However, the modest increase in large-scale power observed in the 2MASS angular power spectrum is still not enough to explain the local hole. If the APM survey area really is 25% deficient in galaxies out to z≈0.1, explanations for the disagreement with observed galaxy clustering statistics include the possibilities that the galaxy clustering is non-Gaussian on large scales or that the 2MASS volume is still too small to represent a `fair sample' of the Universe. Extending the 2dFGRS redshift survey over the whole APM area would resolve many of the remaining questions about the existence and interpretation of this local hole.

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

Treesearch

Anthony R. DeGange; Bruce G. Marcot; James Lawler; Torre Jorgenson; Robert Winfree

2013-01-01

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-...

Model studies of laser absorption computed tomography for remote air pollution measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfe, D. C., Jr.; Byer, R. L.

1982-01-01

Model studies of the potential of laser absorption-computed tomography are presented which demonstrate the possibility of sensitive remote atmospheric pollutant measurements, over kilometer-sized areas, with two-dimensional resolution, at modest laser source powers. An analysis of this tomographic reconstruction process as a function of measurement SNR, laser power, range, and system geometry, shows that the system is able to yield two-dimensional maps of pollutant concentrations at ranges and resolutions superior to those attainable with existing, direct-detection laser radars.

Prolonged self-paced exercise in the heat – environmental factors affecting performance

PubMed Central

Junge, Nicklas; Jørgensen, Rasmus; Flouris, Andreas D.; Nybo, Lars

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT In this review we examine how self-paced performance is affected by environmental heat stress factors during cycling time trial performance as well as considering the effects of exercise mode and heat acclimatization. Mean power output during prolonged cycling time trials in the heat (≥30°C) was on average reduced by 15% in the 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Ambient temperature per se was a poor predictor of the integrated environmental heat stress and 2 of the prevailing heat stress indices (WBGT and UTCI) failed to predict the environmental influence on performance. The weighing of wind speed appears to be too low for predicting the effect for cycling in trained acclimatized subjects, where performance may be maintained in outdoor time trials at ambient temperatures as high as 36°C (36°C UTCI; 28°C WBGT). Power output during indoor trials may also be maintained with temperatures up to at least 27°C when humidity is modest and wind speed matches the movement speed generated during outdoor cycling, whereas marked reductions are observed when air movement is minimal. For running, representing an exercise mode with lower movement speed and higher heat production for a given metabolic rate, it appears that endurance is affected even at much lower ambient temperatures. On this basis we conclude that environmental heat stress impacts self-paced endurance performance. However, the effect is markedly modified by acclimatization status and exercise mode, as the wind generated by the exercise (movement speed) or the environment (natural or fan air movement) exerts a strong influence. PMID:28090557

Enhancement of cold fusion in metal ``hydrides'' by screening of proton and deuteron charges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrows, Adam

1989-08-01

The production of fusion heat in a metal hydride (deuteride) lattice is problematic, since the reported ratio of power to neutron or γ-ray flux of some workers is much larger than that for any known conventional complement of fusion reactions. However, enhanced screening of the deuteron or proton charge in the lattice cages might enhance to modest levels the standard d+d-->3He+n,T+p and p+d-->3He+γ fusion reactions. By lowering the effective deuteron-deuteron and proton-deuteron Coulomb barriers, the effective Gamov penetration factor is increased substantially in metals in general, transition metals in particular, and perhaps enough to produce modest neutron fluxes and tritium yields.

Do choices of sport fisheries reflect angler preferences for site attributes?

Treesearch

Harris. Charles C.; B. L. Driver; Bergersen. E. P.

1985-01-01

A revised recreation choice model is proposed and partially tested using results of a 1980 survey of Colorado anglers. Results of discriminant analyses show modest and useful prediction from preference for trout fishery site attributes to choice of type of fishery used.

The Power of Place: Social Network Characteristics, Perceived Neighborhood Features, and Psychological Distress Among African Americans in the Historic Hill District in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Flórez, Karen R; Ghosh-Dastidar, Madhumita Bonnie; Beckman, Robin; de la Haye, Kayla; Duru, Obidiugwu Kenrik; Abraído-Lanza, Ana F; Dubowitz, Tamara

2016-09-01

African American neighborhoods have been historically targeted for urban renewal projects, which impact social composition and resident's health. The Hill District in Pittsburgh, PA is such a neighborhood. This research sought to investigate the extent to which social networks and perceived neighborhood social cohesion and safety were associated with psychological distress among residents in an African American neighborhood undergoing urban renewal, before the implementation of major neighborhood changes. Findings revealed a modest, significant inverse association between social network size and psychological distress (β = -0.006, p < .01), even after controlling for age, employment, education, and income. Perceived neighborhood safety predicted decreased psychological distress (β = -1.438, p < .01), but not social cohesion, which is consistent with past research. Findings suggest that social networks protect against psychological distress, but neighborhood perceptions are also paramount. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

Feedback control design for non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U using TRANSP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyer, M. D.; Andre, R. G.; Gates, D. A.

This paper examines a method for real-time control of non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U by using TRANSP, a time-dependent integrated modeling code for prediction and interpretive analysis of tokamak experimental data, as a simulator. The actuators considered for control in this work are the six neutral beam sources and the plasma boundary shape. To understand the response of the plasma current, stored energy, and central safety factor to these actuators and to enable systematic design of control algorithms, simulations were run in which the actuators were modulated and a linearized dynamic response model was generated. A multi-variable model-based control schememore » that accounts for the coupling and slow dynamics of the system while mitigating the effect of actuator limitations was designed and simulated. Simulations show that modest changes in the outer gap and heating power can improve the response time of the system, reject perturbations, and track target values of the controlled values.« less

Feedback control design for non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U using TRANSP

DOE PAGES

Boyer, M. D.; Andre, R. G.; Gates, D. A.; ...

2017-04-24

This paper examines a method for real-time control of non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U by using TRANSP, a time-dependent integrated modeling code for prediction and interpretive analysis of tokamak experimental data, as a simulator. The actuators considered for control in this work are the six neutral beam sources and the plasma boundary shape. To understand the response of the plasma current, stored energy, and central safety factor to these actuators and to enable systematic design of control algorithms, simulations were run in which the actuators were modulated and a linearized dynamic response model was generated. A multi-variable model-based control schememore » that accounts for the coupling and slow dynamics of the system while mitigating the effect of actuator limitations was designed and simulated. Simulations show that modest changes in the outer gap and heating power can improve the response time of the system, reject perturbations, and track target values of the controlled values.« less

High-Performance CuInS 2 Quantum Dot Laminated Glass Luminescent Solar Concentrators for Windows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bergren, Matthew R.; Makarov, Nikolay S.; Ramasamy, Karthik

Building-integrated sunlight harvesting utilizing laminated glass luminescent solar concentrators (LSCs) is proposed. By incorporating high quantum yield (>90%), NIR-emitting CuInS2/ZnS quantum dots into the polymer interlayer between two sheets of low-iron float glass, a record optical efficiency of 8.1% is demonstrated for a 10 cm x 10 cm device that transmits ~44% visible light. After completing prototypes by attaching silicon solar cells along the perimeter of the device, the electrical power conversion efficiency was certified at 2.2% with a black background and at 2.9% using a reflective substrate. This 'drop-in' LSC solution is particularly attractive because it fits within themore » existing glazing industry value chain with only modest changes to typical glazing products. Performance modeling predicts >1 GWh annual electricity production for a typical urban skyscraper in most major U.S. cities, enabling significant energy cost savings and potentially 'net-zero' buildings.« less

Feedback control design for non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U using TRANSP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, M. D.; Andre, R. G.; Gates, D. A.; Gerhardt, S. P.; Menard, J. E.; Poli, F. M.

2017-06-01

This paper examines a method for real-time control of non-inductively sustained scenarios in NSTX-U by using TRANSP, a time-dependent integrated modeling code for prediction and interpretive analysis of tokamak experimental data, as a simulator. The actuators considered for control in this work are the six neutral beam sources and the plasma boundary shape. To understand the response of the plasma current, stored energy, and central safety factor to these actuators and to enable systematic design of control algorithms, simulations were run in which the actuators were modulated and a linearized dynamic response model was generated. A multi-variable model-based control scheme that accounts for the coupling and slow dynamics of the system while mitigating the effect of actuator limitations was designed and simulated. Simulations show that modest changes in the outer gap and heating power can improve the response time of the system, reject perturbations, and track target values of the controlled values.

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF). Mission 1 Experiments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Lenwood G., Ed.; And Others

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has been designed to take advantage of the two-way transportation capability of the space shuttle by providing a large number of economical opportunities for science and technology experiments that require modest electrical power and data processing while in space and which benefit from postflight…

United States-China-India Relationship: An Analysis of the Emergence of a Strategic Triangle

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-14

rules of rational play. The shift from one pattern dynamic to another is a function of the attempts of the players to freeze a given configuration...It seeks only modest or no change in the international system (the relative power status of the major states, the rules governing interaction...

Development in helicopter tail boom strake applications in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, John C.; Kelley, Henry L.; Donahue, Cynthia C.; Yenni, Kenneth R.

1988-01-01

The use of a strake or spoiler on a helicopter tail boom to beneficially change helicopter tail boom air loads was suggested in the United States in 1975. The anticipated benefits were a change of tail boom loads to reduce required tail rotor thrust and power and improve directional control. High tail boom air loads experienced by the YAH-64 and described in 1978 led to a wind tunnel investigation of the usefullness of strakes in altering such loads on the AH-64, UH-60, and UH-1 helicopters. The wind tunnel tests of 2-D cross sections of the tail boom of each demonstrated that a strake or strakes would be effective. Several limited test programs with the U.S. Army's OH-58A, AH-64, and UH-60A were conducted which showed the effects of strakes were modest for those helicopters. The most recent flight test program, with a Bell 204B, disclosed that for the 204B the tail boom strake or strakes would provide more than a modest improvement in directional control and reduction in tail rotor power.

Enhancement of muscle and locomotor performance by a series compliance: A mechanistic simulation study

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The objective was to better understand how a series compliance alters contraction kinetics and power output of muscle to enhance the work done on a load. A mathematical model was created in which a gravitational point load was connected via a linear spring to a muscle (based on the contractile properties of the sartorius of leopard frogs, Rana pipiens). The model explored the effects of load mass, tendon compliance, and delay between onset of contraction and release of the load (catch) on lift height and power output as measures of performance. Series compliance resulted in increased lift height over a relatively narrow range of compliances, and the effect was quite modest without an imposed catch mechanism unless the load was unrealistically small. Peak power of the muscle-tendon complex could be augmented up to four times that produced with a muscle alone, however, lift height was not predicted by peak power. Rather, lift height was improved as a result of the compliance synchronizing the time courses of muscle force and shortening velocity, in particular by stabilizing shortening velocity such that muscle power was sustained rather than rising and immediately falling. With a catch mechanism, enhanced performance resulted largely from energy storage in the compliance during the period of catch, rather than increased time for muscle activation before movement commenced. However, series compliance introduced a trade-off between work done before versus after release of the catch. Thus, the ability of tendons to enhance locomotor performance (i.e. increase the work done by muscle) appears dependent not only on their established role in storing energy and increasing power, but also on their ability to modulate the kinetics of muscle contraction such that power is sustained over more of the contraction, and maximizing the balance of work done before versus after release of a catch. PMID:29370246

Field-Reversed Configuration Power Plant Critical-Issue Scoping Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santarius, J. F.; Mogahed, E. A.; Emmert, G. A.

A team from the Universities of Wisconsin, Washington, and Illinois performed an engineering scoping study of critical issues for field-reversed configuration (FRC) power plants. The key tasks for this research were (1) systems analysis for deuterium-tritium (D-T) FRC fusion power plants, and (2) conceptual design of the blanket and shield module for an FRC fusion core. For the engineering conceptual design of the fusion core, the project team focused on intermediate-term technology. For example, one decision was to use steele structure. The FRC systems analysis led to a fusion power plant with attractive features including modest size, cylindrical symmetry, goodmore » thermal efficiency (52%), relatively easy maintenance, and a high ratio of electric power to fusion core mass, indicating that it would have favorable economics.« less

Longitudinal trends in hedonic hunger after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass in adolescents.

PubMed

Cushing, Christopher C; Benoit, Stephen C; Peugh, James L; Reiter-Purtill, Jennifer; Inge, Thomas H; Zeller, Meg H

2014-01-01

Initial outcome studies have reported that Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is safe and efficacious for adolescents with extreme obesity. Although rapid weight loss is seen initially, data also show that modest weight regain typically occurs as early as the second postoperative year. The contribution of various psychological factors, including hedonic hunger, to postoperative weight regain has not previously been studied in adolescents. The objective of this study was to examine the variability in hedonic hunger and body mass index (BMI) over the initial 2-year period of weight loss and modest weight regain in adolescent RYGB recipients. A total of 16 adolescents completed the Power of Food Scale before surgery and at 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months postoperatively. Height and weight were measured at each time point, from which BMI was calculated. Nonlinear trends were observed for time on both overall hedonic hunger and hedonic hunger specifically related to food available in the adolescent's environment. The BMI reduction during the first 18 months postoperatively was paralleled by reduction in hedonic hunger; increases in hedonic hunger also paralleled the modest BMI increase at 24 months. In growth analysis, significant power gains are available to models using 4 or more points of data. However, only large effect sizes that are>.85 were detectable with a sample of 16 patients. These data provide preliminary evidence that hedonic hunger is in need of further study in adolescent patients receiving RYGB both preoperatively and postoperatively. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anthropometric measurements as predictors of cephalopelvic disproportion: Can the diagnostic accuracy be improved?

PubMed

Benjamin, Santosh J; Daniel, Anjali B; Kamath, Asha; Ramkumar, Vani

2012-01-01

We assessed the efficacy of maternal anthropometric measurements and clinical estimates of fetal weight in isolation and in combination as predictors of cephalopelvic disproportion (CPD). Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care teaching hospital, two affiliated hospitals with facilities for conducting cesarean delivery and seven affiliated primary care facilities with no operation theaters. Primigravidae over 37 weeks' gestation attending these facilities during a 20-month period with a singleton pregnancy in vertex presentation. Several anthropometric measurements were taken in 249 primigravidae. Fetal weight was estimated. Differences in these measurements between the vaginal delivery and CPD groups were analyzed. The validity of these measurements in predicting CPD was analyzed by plotting receiver operating characteristic curves and by logistic regression analysis. Mode of delivery. Maternal height, foot size, inter-trochanteric diameter and bis-acromial diameter showed the highest positive predictive values for CPD. Combining some maternal measurements with estimates of fetal weight increased predictive values modestly, which are likely to be greater if the estimates of fetal weight are close to the actual birth weight. Based on multivariate analysis the risk factors for CPD in our population were foot length ≤23cm, inter-trochanteric diameter ≤30cm and estimated fetal weight ≥3 000g. Maternal anthropometric measurements can predict CPD to some extent. Combining maternal measurements with clinical estimates of fetal weight only enhances the predictive value to a relatively modest degree (positive predictive value 24%). © 2011 The Authors Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica © 2011 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model Incorporating Lung Function: Development and Validation in the UK Biobank Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Muller, David C; Johansson, Mattias; Brennan, Paul

2017-03-10

Purpose Several lung cancer risk prediction models have been developed, but none to date have assessed the predictive ability of lung function in a population-based cohort. We sought to develop and internally validate a model incorporating lung function using data from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study. Methods This analysis included 502,321 participants without a previous diagnosis of lung cancer, predominantly between 40 and 70 years of age. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate the 2-year probability of lung cancer, accounting for the competing risk of death. Models included predictors previously shown to be associated with lung cancer risk, including sex, variables related to smoking history and nicotine addiction, medical history, family history of lung cancer, and lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1]). Results During accumulated follow-up of 1,469,518 person-years, there were 738 lung cancer diagnoses. A model incorporating all predictors had excellent discrimination (concordance (c)-statistic [95% CI] = 0.85 [0.82 to 0.87]). Internal validation suggested that the model will discriminate well when applied to new data (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.84). The full model, including FEV1, also had modestly superior discriminatory power than one that was designed solely on the basis of questionnaire variables (c-statistic = 0.84 [0.82 to 0.86]; optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.83; p FEV1 = 3.4 × 10 -13 ). The full model had better discrimination than standard lung cancer screening eligibility criteria (c-statistic = 0.66 [0.64 to 0.69]). Conclusion A risk prediction model that includes lung function has strong predictive ability, which could improve eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening programs.

Gene Expression in Developing Brain is Altered by Modest Reductions in Circulating Levels of Thyroid Hormone.

EPA Science Inventory

Disruption of thyroid hormone (TH) homeostasis is a known effect of environmental contaminants. Although animal models of developmental TH deficiency can predict the impact of severe insults to the thyroid system, the effects of moderate TH insufficiencies have not been adequatel...

Sex Differences in the Mental Rotation of Chemistry Representations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stieff, Mike

2013-01-01

Mental-rotation ability modestly predicts chemistry achievement. As such, sex differences in mental-rotation ability have been implicated as a causal factor that can explain sex differences in chemistry achievement and degree attainment. Although there is a correlation between mental-rotation ability and chemistry achievement, laboratory and field…

American business ethics and health care costs.

PubMed

Garrett, T M; Klonoski, R J; Baillie, H W

1993-01-01

The health care industry operates in the margin between market competition and social welfare programs. Violations of business ethics on the market side add considerably to costs. When the inefficient use of resources and market distortions due to power and ignorance as well as legal and subsidized monopolies are added, increased costs can approach $100 billion. Modest remedies are suggested.

Three-dimension imaging lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Degnan, John J. (Inventor)

2007-01-01

This invention is directed to a 3-dimensional imaging lidar, which utilizes modest power kHz rate lasers, array detectors, photon-counting multi-channel timing receivers, and dual wedge optical scanners with transmitter point-ahead correction to provide contiguous high spatial resolution mapping of surface features including ground, water, man-made objects, vegetation and submerged surfaces from an aircraft or a spacecraft.

Divestiture summary report: Sale of Eklutna and Snettisham hydroelectric projects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-04-01

This report accompanies the legislative proposal to authorize sale of the two Alaskan Federal hydroelectric projects and close out the Alaska Power Administration (APA). The 78,210 kill Snettisham Project serving Juneau would be sold to the Alaska Energy Authority, a State corporation which owns six other hydroelectric projects. The 30,000 kill Eklutna Project serving the Anchorage and Matanuska Valley areas would be sold to the three electric utilities which now purchase power from that project. Terms and conditions for the sales are set out in negotiated Purchase Agreements. Key aspects include: (1) Development of Transition Plans within six months aftermore » Congress authorizes the divestiture. (2) Transaction Date to be set in the Transition Plans. (3) Description of assets to be transferred. (4) Price and payment terms. (5) Environmental Management Plans. (6) Protection of interests in several important non-power'' uses of project land and water. Under a separate agreement, the Purchasers assume responsibility for developing and implementing post-sale programs for protection, mitigation, and enhancement of fish and wildlife resources impacted by hydroelectric development in the Eldutna and Snettisham basins. The estimated sale proceeds to the United States Treasury are between $73.5 and $80.3 million, assuming the transactions are completed between October 1, 1992 and October 1, 1993. Eklutna and Snettisham are modest-sized, single-purpose hydroelectric projects involving small river basins entirely within Alaska. Locally, they are important long-term suppliers of economically-priced hydroelectric power. The sale terms and structure assure that the projects will continue to serve their intended purposes. Modest rate increases are expected over the short term, but long-term power rates are expected to be similar to those that would prevail under continued Federal ownership.« less

Divestiture summary report: Sale of Eklutna and Snettisham hydroelectric projects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-04-01

This report accompanies the legislative proposal to authorize sale of the two Alaskan Federal hydroelectric projects and close out the Alaska Power Administration (APA). The 78,210 kill Snettisham Project serving Juneau would be sold to the Alaska Energy Authority, a State corporation which owns six other hydroelectric projects. The 30,000 kill Eklutna Project serving the Anchorage and Matanuska Valley areas would be sold to the three electric utilities which now purchase power from that project. Terms and conditions for the sales are set out in negotiated Purchase Agreements. Key aspects include: (1) Development of Transition Plans within six months aftermore » Congress authorizes the divestiture. (2) Transaction Date to be set in the Transition Plans. (3) Description of assets to be transferred. (4) Price and payment terms. (5) Environmental Management Plans. (6) Protection of interests in several important ``non-power`` uses of project land and water. Under a separate agreement, the Purchasers assume responsibility for developing and implementing post-sale programs for protection, mitigation, and enhancement of fish and wildlife resources impacted by hydroelectric development in the Eldutna and Snettisham basins. The estimated sale proceeds to the United States Treasury are between $73.5 and $80.3 million, assuming the transactions are completed between October 1, 1992 and October 1, 1993. Eklutna and Snettisham are modest-sized, single-purpose hydroelectric projects involving small river basins entirely within Alaska. Locally, they are important long-term suppliers of economically-priced hydroelectric power. The sale terms and structure assure that the projects will continue to serve their intended purposes. Modest rate increases are expected over the short term, but long-term power rates are expected to be similar to those that would prevail under continued Federal ownership.« less

Personalizing oncology treatments by predicting drug efficacy, side-effects, and improved therapy: mathematics, statistics, and their integration.

PubMed

Agur, Zvia; Elishmereni, Moran; Kheifetz, Yuri

2014-01-01

Despite its great promise, personalized oncology still faces many hurdles, and it is increasingly clear that targeted drugs and molecular biomarkers alone yield only modest clinical benefit. One reason is the complex relationships between biomarkers and the patient's response to drugs, obscuring the true weight of the biomarkers in the overall patient's response. This complexity can be disentangled by computational models that integrate the effects of personal biomarkers into a simulator of drug-patient dynamic interactions, for predicting the clinical outcomes. Several computational tools have been developed for personalized oncology, notably evidence-based tools for simulating pharmacokinetics, Bayesian-estimated tools for predicting survival, etc. We describe representative statistical and mathematical tools, and discuss their merits, shortcomings and preliminary clinical validation attesting to their potential. Yet, the individualization power of mathematical models alone, or statistical models alone, is limited. More accurate and versatile personalization tools can be constructed by a new application of the statistical/mathematical nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NLMEM) approach, which until recently has been used only in drug development. Using these advanced tools, clinical data from patient populations can be integrated with mechanistic models of disease and physiology, for generating personal mathematical models. Upon a more substantial validation in the clinic, this approach will hopefully be applied in personalized clinical trials, P-trials, hence aiding the establishment of personalized medicine within the main stream of clinical oncology. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeGange, Anthony R.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Lawler, James; Jorgenson, Torre; Winfree, Robert

2014-01-01

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using birds and mammals. Conversely, we predict declines in several more open low shrub, tussock, and meadow ecotypes favored by many waterbird, shorebird, and small mammal species.

Apparatus and method for generating continuous wave 16. mu. m laser radiation using gaseous CF/sub 4/

DOEpatents

Telle, J.M.

1984-05-01

Apparatus and method for generating continuous wave 16 ..mu..m laser radiation using gaseous CF/sub 4/. Laser radiation at 16 ..mu..m has been observed in a cooled static cell containing low pressure CF/sub 4/ optically pumped by an approximately 3 W output power c-w CO/sub 2/ laser. The laser cavity employed was a multiple-pass off-axis-path two spherical mirror ring resonator. Unidirectional CF/sub 4/ laser output power at 615 cm/sup -1/ exceeded 2 mW. Computer calculations indicate that for modest pump powers of about 40 W, approximately 1 W of emitted laser radiation at 16 ..mu..m might be obtained.

Apparatus and method for generating continuous wave 16 .mu.m laser radiation using gaseous CF.sub.4

DOEpatents

Telle, John M.

1986-01-01

Apparatus and method for generating continuous wave 16 .mu.m laser radiation using gaseous CF.sub.4. Laser radiation at 16 .mu.m has been observed in a cooled static cell containing low pressure CF.sub.4 optically pumped by an approximately 3 W output power cw CO.sub.2 laser. The laser cavity employed was a multiple-pass off-axis-path two spherical mirror ring resonator. Unidirectional CF.sub.4 laser output power at 615 cm.sup.-1 exceeded 2 mW. Computer calculations indicate that for modest pump powers of about 40 W, approximately 1 W of emitted laser radiation at 16 .mu.m might be obtained.

Risk Adjustment and Primary Health Care in Chile

PubMed Central

Vargas, Veronica; Wasem, Juergen

2006-01-01

Aim To offer a capitation formula with greater capacity for guiding resource spending on population with poorer health and lower socioeconomic status in the context of financing and equity in primary health care. Methods We collected two years of data on a sample of 10 000 individuals from a region in Chile, Valdivia and Temuco and evaluated three models to estimate utilization and expenditures per capita. The first model included age and sex; the second one included age, sex, and the presence of two key diagnoses; and the third model included age, sex, and the presence of seven key diagnoses. Regression results were evaluated by R2 and predictive ratios to select the best specifications. Results Per-capita expenditures by age and sex confirmed international trends, where children under five, women, and the elderly were the main users of primary health care services. Women sought health advice twice as much as men. Clear differences by socioeconomic status were observed for the indigent population aged ≥65 years who under-utilized primary health care services. From the three models, major improvement in the predictive power occurred from the demographic (adjusted R2, 9%) to the demographic plus two diagnoses model (adjusted R2, 27%). Improvements were modest when five other diagnoses were added (adjusted R2, 28%). Conclusion The current formula that uses municipality’s financial power and geographic location of health centers to adjust capitation payments provides little incentive to appropriate care for the indigent and people with chronic conditions. A capitation payment that adjusts for age, sex, and the presence of diabetes and hypertension will better guide resource allocation to those with poorer health and lower socioeconomic status. PMID:16758525

Looking Back into the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Neill, Arthur; Speechley, Bob

2011-01-01

The authors want to figure out what happened in Australian post-secondary education over the last 50 or so years and to predict what sort of arrangement their great-grandchildren, and great-great-grandchildren, will encounter 50 years hence. To put this modest project another way: what in 2060 might a historian (assuming there are, then,…

Genetic variance partitioning and genome-wide prediction with allele dosage information in autotetraploid potato

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potato breeding cycles typically last 6-7 years because of the modest seed multiplication rate and large number of traits required of new varieties. Genomic selection has the potential to increase genetic gain per unit of time, through higher accuracy and/or a shorter cycle. Both possibilities were ...

Unrealistic Optimism in the Pursuit of Academic Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewine, Rich; Sommers, Alison A.

2016-01-01

Although the ability to evaluate one's own knowledge and performance is critical to learning, the correlation between students' self-evaluation and actual performance measures is modest at best. In this study we examine the effect of offering extra credit for students' accurate prediction (self-accuracy) of their performance on four exams in two…

Plasma mirrors for short pulse KrF lasers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilicze, Barnabás; Szatmári, Sándor; Barna, Angéla

2016-08-15

It is demonstrated for the first time that plasma mirrors can be successfully applied for KrF laser systems. High reflectivity up to 70% is achieved by optimization of the beam quality on the plasma mirror. The modest spectral shift and the good reflected beam quality allow its applicability for high power laser systems for which a new arrangement is suggested.

Multi-Spectral Stereo Atmospheric Remote Sensing (STARS) for Retrieval of Cloud Properties and Cloud-Motion Vectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, M. A.; Boldt, J.; Wilson, J. P.; Yee, J. H.; Stoffler, R.

2017-12-01

The multi-spectral STereo Atmospheric Remote Sensing (STARS) concept has the objective to provide high-spatial and -temporal-resolution observations of 3D cloud structures related to hurricane development and other severe weather events. The rapid evolution of severe weather demonstrates a critical need for mesoscale observations of severe weather dynamics, but such observations are rare, particularly over the ocean where extratropical and tropical cyclones can undergo explosive development. Coincident space-based measurements of wind velocity and cloud properties at the mesoscale remain a great challenge, but are critically needed to improve the understanding and prediction of severe weather and cyclogenesis. STARS employs a mature stereoscopic imaging technique on two satellites (e.g. two CubeSats, two hosted payloads) to simultaneously retrieve cloud motion vectors (CMVs), cloud-top temperatures (CTTs), and cloud geometric heights (CGHs) from multi-angle, multi-spectral observations of cloud features. STARS is a pushbroom system based on separate wide-field-of-view co-boresighted multi-spectral cameras in the visible, midwave infrared (MWIR), and longwave infrared (LWIR) with high spatial resolution (better than 1 km). The visible system is based on a pan-chromatic, low-light imager to resolve cloud structures under nighttime illumination down to ¼ moon. The MWIR instrument, which is being developed as a NASA ESTO Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) project, is based on recent advances in MWIR detector technology that requires only modest cooling. The STARS payload provides flexible options for spaceflight due to its low size, weight, power (SWaP) and very modest cooling requirements. STARS also meets AF operational requirements for cloud characterization and theater weather imagery. In this paper, an overview of the STARS concept, including the high-level sensor design, the concept of operations, and measurement capability will be presented.

Genetic Association and Risk Scores in a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Meta-analysis of 16,707 Subjects.

PubMed

Busch, Robert; Hobbs, Brian D; Zhou, Jin; Castaldi, Peter J; McGeachie, Michael J; Hardin, Megan E; Hawrylkiewicz, Iwona; Sliwinski, Pawel; Yim, Jae-Joon; Kim, Woo Jin; Kim, Deog K; Agusti, Alvar; Make, Barry J; Crapo, James D; Calverley, Peter M; Donner, Claudio F; Lomas, David A; Wouters, Emiel F; Vestbo, Jørgen; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Bakke, Per; Gulsvik, Amund; Litonjua, Augusto A; Sparrow, David; Paré, Peter D; Levy, Robert D; Rennard, Stephen I; Beaty, Terri H; Hokanson, John; Silverman, Edwin K; Cho, Michael H

2017-07-01

The heritability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be fully explained by recognized genetic risk factors identified as achieving genome-wide significance. In addition, the combined contribution of genetic variation to COPD risk has not been fully explored. We sought to determine: (1) whether studies of variants from previous studies of COPD or lung function in a larger sample could identify additional associated variants, particularly for severe COPD; and (2) the impact of genetic risk scores on COPD. We genotyped 3,346 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,588 cases (1,803 severe COPD) and 1,782 control subjects from four cohorts, and performed association testing with COPD, combining these results with existing genotyping data from 6,633 cases (3,497 severe COPD) and 5,704 control subjects. In addition, we developed genetic risk scores from SNPs associated with lung function and COPD and tested their discriminatory power for COPD-related measures. We identified significant associations between SNPs near PPIC (P = 1.28 × 10 -8 ) and PPP4R4/SERPINA1 (P = 1.01 × 10 -8 ) and severe COPD; the latter association may be driven by recognized variants in SERPINA1. Genetic risk scores based on SNPs previously associated with COPD and lung function had a modest ability to discriminate COPD (area under the curve, ∼0.6), and accounted for a mean 0.9-1.9% lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted for each additional risk allele. In a large genetic association analysis, we identified associations with severe COPD near PPIC and SERPINA1. A risk score based on combining genetic variants had modest, but significant, effects on risk of COPD and lung function.

Microstructured snow targets for high energy quasi-monoenergetic proton acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleifer, E.; Nahum, E.; Eisenmann, S.; Botton, M.; Baspaly, A.; Pomerantz, I.; Abricht, F.; Branzel, J.; Priebe, G.; Steinke, S.; Andreev, A.; Schnuerer, M.; Sandner, W.; Gordon, D.; Sprangle, P.; Ledingham, K. W. D.; Zigler, A.

2013-05-01

Compact size sources of high energy protons (50-200MeV) are expected to be key technology in a wide range of scientific applications 1-8. One promising approach is the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration (TNSA) scheme 9,10, holding record level of 67MeV protons generated by a peta-Watt laser 11. In general, laser intensity exceeding 1018 W/cm2 is required to produce MeV level protons. Another approach is the Break-Out Afterburner (BOA) scheme which is a more efficient acceleration scheme but requires an extremely clean pulse with contrast ratio of above 10-10. Increasing the energy of the accelerated protons using modest energy laser sources is a very attractive task nowadays. Recently, nano-scale targets were used to accelerate ions 12,13 but no significant enhancement of the accelerated proton energy was measured. Here we report on the generation of up to 20MeV by a modest (5TW) laser system interacting with a microstructured snow target deposited on a Sapphire substrate. This scheme relax also the requirement of high contrast ratio between the pulse and the pre-pulse, where the latter produces the highly structured plasma essential for the interaction process. The plasma near the tip of the snow target is subject to locally enhanced laser intensity with high spatial gradients, and enhanced charge separation is obtained. Electrostatic fields of extremely high intensities are produced, and protons are accelerated to MeV-level energies. PIC simulations of this targets reproduce the experimentally measured energy scaling and predict the generation of 150 MeV protons from laser power of 100TW laser system18.

The influence of vertical motor responses on explicit and incidental processing of power words.

PubMed

Jiang, Tianjiao; Sun, Lining; Zhu, Lei

2015-07-01

There is increasing evidence demonstrating that power judgment is affected by vertical information. Such interaction between vertical space and power (i.e., response facilitation under space-power congruent conditions) is generally elicited in paradigms that require participants to explicitly evaluate the power of the presented words. The current research explored the possibility that explicit evaluative processing is not a prerequisite for the emergence of this effect. Here we compared the influence of vertical information on a standard explicit power evaluation task with influence on a task that linked power with stimuli in a more incidental manner, requiring participants to report whether the words represented people or animals or the font of the words. The results revealed that although the effect is more modest, the interaction between responses and power is also evident in an incidental task. Furthermore, we also found that explicit semantic processing is a prerequisite to ensure such an effect. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fusion Propulsion and Power for Future Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Froning, H. D., Jr.

1996-01-01

There are innovative magnetic and electric confinement fusion power and propulsion system designs with potential for: vacuum specific impulses of 1500-2000 seconds with rocket engine thrust/mass ratios of 5-10 g's; environmentally favorable exhaust emissions if aneutronic fusion propellants can be used; a 2 to 3-fold reduction in the mass of hypersonic airliners and SSTO aerospace planes; a 10 to 20 fold reduction in Mars expedition mass and cost (if propellant from planetary atmospheres is used); and feasibility or in-feasibility of these systems could be confirmed with a modest applied research and exploratory development cost.

A summary of wind power prediction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuqi

2018-06-01

The deterministic prediction of wind power, the probability prediction and the prediction of wind power ramp events are introduced in this paper. Deterministic prediction includes the prediction of statistical learning based on histor ical data and the prediction of physical models based on NWP data. Due to the great impact of wind power ramp events on the power system, this paper also introduces the prediction of wind power ramp events. At last, the evaluation indicators of all kinds of prediction are given. The prediction of wind power can be a good solution to the adverse effects of wind power on the power system due to the abrupt, intermittent and undulation of wind power.

Wind Energy Conversion by Plant-Inspired Designs

PubMed Central

Mosher, Curtis L.; Henderson, Eric R.

2017-01-01

In 2008 the U.S. Department of Energy set a target of 20% wind energy by 2030. To date, induction-based turbines form the mainstay of this effort, but turbines are noisy, perceived as unattractive, a potential hazard to bats and birds, and their height hampers deployment in residential settings. Several groups have proposed that artificial plants containing piezoelectric elements may harvest wind energy sufficient to contribute to a carbon-neutral energy economy. Here we measured energy conversion by cottonwood-inspired piezoelectric leaves, and by a “vertical flapping stalk”—the most efficient piezo-leaf previously reported. We emulated cottonwood for its unusually ordered, periodic flutter, properties conducive to piezo excitation. Integrated over 0°–90° (azimuthal) of incident airflow, cottonwood mimics outperformed the vertical flapping stalk, but they produced << daW per conceptualized tree. In contrast, a modest-sized cottonwood tree may dissipate ~ 80 W via leaf motion alone. A major limitation of piezo-transduction is charge generation, which scales with capacitance (area). We thus tested a rudimentary, cattail-inspired leaf with stacked elements wired in parallel. Power increased systematically with capacitance as expected, but extrapolation to acre-sized assemblages predicts << daW. Although our results suggest that present piezoelectric materials will not harvest mid-range power from botanic mimics of convenient size, recent developments in electrostriction and triboelectric systems may offer more fertile ground to further explore this concept. PMID:28085933

Wind Energy Conversion by Plant-Inspired Designs.

PubMed

McCloskey, Michael A; Mosher, Curtis L; Henderson, Eric R

2017-01-01

In 2008 the U.S. Department of Energy set a target of 20% wind energy by 2030. To date, induction-based turbines form the mainstay of this effort, but turbines are noisy, perceived as unattractive, a potential hazard to bats and birds, and their height hampers deployment in residential settings. Several groups have proposed that artificial plants containing piezoelectric elements may harvest wind energy sufficient to contribute to a carbon-neutral energy economy. Here we measured energy conversion by cottonwood-inspired piezoelectric leaves, and by a "vertical flapping stalk"-the most efficient piezo-leaf previously reported. We emulated cottonwood for its unusually ordered, periodic flutter, properties conducive to piezo excitation. Integrated over 0°-90° (azimuthal) of incident airflow, cottonwood mimics outperformed the vertical flapping stalk, but they produced < daW per conceptualized tree. In contrast, a modest-sized cottonwood tree may dissipate ~ 80 W via leaf motion alone. A major limitation of piezo-transduction is charge generation, which scales with capacitance (area). We thus tested a rudimentary, cattail-inspired leaf with stacked elements wired in parallel. Power increased systematically with capacitance as expected, but extrapolation to acre-sized assemblages predicts < daW. Although our results suggest that present piezoelectric materials will not harvest mid-range power from botanic mimics of convenient size, recent developments in electrostriction and triboelectric systems may offer more fertile ground to further explore this concept.

Statistical power to detect violation of the proportional hazards assumption when using the Cox regression model.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2018-01-01

The use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model is widespread. A key assumption of the model is that of proportional hazards. Analysts frequently test the validity of this assumption using statistical significance testing. However, the statistical power of such assessments is frequently unknown. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power of two different methods for detecting violations of this assumption. When the covariate was binary, we found that a model-based method had greater power than a method based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals. Furthermore, the parametric nature of the distribution of event times had an impact on power when the covariate was binary. Statistical power to detect a strong violation of the proportional hazards assumption was low to moderate even when the number of observed events was high. In many data sets, power to detect a violation of this assumption is likely to be low to modest.

Statistical power to detect violation of the proportional hazards assumption when using the Cox regression model

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.

2017-01-01

The use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model is widespread. A key assumption of the model is that of proportional hazards. Analysts frequently test the validity of this assumption using statistical significance testing. However, the statistical power of such assessments is frequently unknown. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power of two different methods for detecting violations of this assumption. When the covariate was binary, we found that a model-based method had greater power than a method based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals. Furthermore, the parametric nature of the distribution of event times had an impact on power when the covariate was binary. Statistical power to detect a strong violation of the proportional hazards assumption was low to moderate even when the number of observed events was high. In many data sets, power to detect a violation of this assumption is likely to be low to modest. PMID:29321694

The prediction of satellite ephemeris errors as they result from surveillance system measurement errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmons, B. E.

1981-08-01

This report derives equations predicting satellite ephemeris error as a function of measurement errors of space-surveillance sensors. These equations lend themselves to rapid computation with modest computer resources. They are applicable over prediction times such that measurement errors, rather than uncertainties of atmospheric drag and of Earth shape, dominate in producing ephemeris error. This report describes the specialization of these equations underlying the ANSER computer program, SEEM (Satellite Ephemeris Error Model). The intent is that this report be of utility to users of SEEM for interpretive purposes, and to computer programmers who may need a mathematical point of departure for limited generalization of SEEM.

Pharmacogenomics Study of Thiazide Diuretics and QT Interval in Multi-Ethnic Populations: The Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE)

PubMed Central

Seyerle, Amanda A; Sitlani, Colleen M; Noordam, Raymond; Gogarten, Stephanie M; Li, Jin; Li, Xiaohui; Evans, Daniel S; Sun, Fangui; Laaksonen, Maarit A; Isaacs, Aaron; Kristiansson, Kati; Highland, Heather M; Stewart, James D; Harris, Tamara B; Trompet, Stella; Bis, Joshua C; Peloso, Gina M; Brody, Jennifer A; Broer, Linda; Busch, Evan L; Duan, Qing; Stilp, Adrienne M; O’Donnell, Christopher J; Macfarlane, Peter W; Floyd, James S; Kors, Jan A; Lin, Henry J; Li-Gao, Ruifang; Sofer, Tamar; Méndez-Giráldez, Raúl; Cummings, Steven R; Heckbert, Susan R; Hofman, Albert; Ford, Ian; Li, Yun; Launer, Lenore J; Porthan, Kimmo; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Napier, Melanie D; Kerr, Kathleen F; Reiner, Alexander P; Rice, Kenneth M; Roach, Jeffrey; Buckley, Brendan M; Soliman, Elsayed Z; de Mutsert, Renée; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Uitterlinden, André G; North, Kari E; Lee, Craig R; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Stürmer, Til; Rosendaal, Frits R; Taylor, Kent D; Wiggins, Kerri L; Wilson, James G; Chen, Yii-Der I; Kaplan, Robert C; Wilhelmsen, Kirk; Cupples, L Adrienne; Salomaa, Veikko; van Duijn, Cornelia; Jukema, J Wouter; Liu, Yongmei; Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O; Lange, Leslie A; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Smith, Albert V; Stricker, Bruno H; Laurie, Cathy C; Rotter, Jerome I; Whitsel, Eric A; Psaty, Bruce M; Avery, Christy L

2017-01-01

Thiazide diuretics, commonly used antihypertensives, may cause QT interval (QT) prolongation, a risk factor for highly fatal and difficult to predict ventricular arrhythmias. We examined whether common SNPs modified the association between thiazide use and QT or its component parts (QRS interval, JT interval) by performing ancestry-specific, trans-ethnic, and cross-phenotype genome-wide analyses of European (66%), African American (15%), and Hispanic (19%) populations (N=78,199), leveraging longitudinal data, incorporating corrected standard errors to account for underestimation of interaction estimate variances and evaluating evidence for pathway enrichment. Although no loci achieved genome-wide significance (P<5×10−8), we found suggestive evidence (P<5×10−6) for SNPs modifying the thiazide-QT association at 22 loci, including ion transport loci (e.g. NELL1, KCNQ3). The biologic plausibility of our suggestive results and simulations demonstrating modest power to detect interaction effects at genome-wide significant levels indicate that larger studies and innovative statistical methods are warranted in future efforts evaluating thiazide-SNP interactions. PMID:28719597

Wealth inequality: The physics basis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bejan, A.; Errera, M. R.

2017-03-01

"Inequality" is a common observation about us, as members of society. In this article, we unify physics with economics by showing that the distribution of wealth is related proportionally to the movement of all the streams of a live society. The hierarchical distribution of wealth on the earth happens naturally. Hierarchy is unavoidable, with staying power, and difficult to efface. We illustrate this with two architectures, river basins and the movement of freight. The physical flow architecture that emerges is hierarchical on the surface of the earth and in everything that flows inside the live human bodies, the movement of humans and their belongings, and the engines that drive the movement. The nonuniform distribution of wealth becomes more accentuated as the economy becomes more developed, i.e., as its flow architecture becomes more complex for the purpose of covering smaller and smaller interstices of the overall (fixed) territory. It takes a relatively modest complexity for the nonuniformity in the distribution of wealth to be evident. This theory also predicts the Lorenz-type distribution of income inequality, which was adopted empirically for a century.

The development, evolution, and status of Holland's theory of vocational personalities: Reflections and future directions for counseling psychology.

PubMed

Nauta, Margaret M

2010-01-01

This article celebrates the 50th anniversary of the introduction of John L. Holland's (1959) theory of vocational personalities and work environments by describing the theory's development and evolution, its instrumentation, and its current status. Hallmarks of Holland's theory are its empirical testability and its user-friendliness. By constructing measures for operationalizing the theory's constructs, Holland and his colleagues helped ensure that the theory could be implemented in practice on a widespread basis. Empirical data offer considerable support for the existence of Holland's RIASEC types and their ordering among persons and environments. Although Holland's congruence hypotheses have received empirical support, congruence appears to have modest predictive power. Mixed support exists for Holland's hypotheses involving the secondary constructs of differentiation, consistency, and vocational identity. Evidence of the continued impact of Holland's theory on the field of counseling psychology, particularly in the area of interest assessment, can be seen from its frequent implementation in practice and its use by scholars. Ideas for future research and practice using Holland's theory are suggested.

CMB spectral distortion constraints on thermal inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, Kihyun; Stewart, Ewan D.; Hong, Sungwook E.

2017-08-01

Thermal inflation is a second epoch of exponential expansion at typical energy scales V {sup 1/4} ∼ 10{sup 6} {sup ∼} {sup 8} GeV. If the usual primordial inflation is followed by thermal inflation, the primordial power spectrum is only modestly redshifted on large scales, but strongly suppressed on scales smaller than the horizon size at the beginning of thermal inflation, k > k {sub b} = a {sub b} H {sub b}. We calculate the spectral distortion of the cosmic microwave background generated by the dissipation of acoustic waves in this context. For k {sub b} || 10{sup 3}more » Mpc{sup −1}, thermal inflation results in a large suppression of the μ-distortion amplitude, predicting that it falls well below the standard value of μ ≅ 2× 10{sup −8}. Thus, future spectral distortion experiments, similar to PIXIE, can place new limits on the thermal inflation scenario, constraining k {sub b} ∼> 10{sup 3} Mpc{sup −1} if μ ≅ 2× 10{sup −8} were found.« less

Understanding Mother-Adolescent Conflict Discussions: Concurrent and Across-Time Prediction from Youths' Dispositions and Parenting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eisenberg, Nancy; Hofer, Claire; Spinrad, Tracy L.; Gershoff, Elizabeth T.; Valiente, Carlos; Losoya, Sandra; Zhou, Qing; Cumberland, Amanda; Liew, Jeffrey; Reiser, Mark; Maxon, Elizabeth

2008-01-01

Adolescence is often thought of as a period during which the quality of parent-child interactions can be relatively stressed and conflictual. There are individual differences in this regard, however, with only a modest percent of youths experiencing extremely conflictual relationships with their parents. Nonetheless, there is relatively little…

Sex and Locus of Control as Determinants of Children's Responses to Peer versus Adult Praise.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henry, Susan E.; And Others

1979-01-01

Black first graders varying in internal-external control completed digit substitution problems during which performance was praised by a Black boy and girl or a Black man and woman. Boys were most responsive to peer feedback and girls to adult feedback. Predictions involving locus of control were modestly supported. (Author/RD)

Detection of gas leakage

DOEpatents

Thornberg, Steven [Peralta, NM; Brown, Jason [Albuquerque, NM

2012-06-19

A method of detecting leaks and measuring volumes as well as an apparatus, the Power-free Pump Module (PPM), that is a self-contained leak test and volume measurement apparatus that requires no external sources of electrical power during leak testing or volume measurement, where the invention is a portable, pneumatically-controlled instrument capable of generating a vacuum, calibrating volumes, and performing quantitative leak tests on a closed test system or device, all without the use of alternating current (AC) power. Capabilities include the ability is to provide a modest vacuum (less than 10 Torr), perform a pressure rise leak test, measure the gas's absolute pressure, and perform volume measurements. All operations are performed through a simple rotary control valve which controls pneumatically-operated manifold valves.

Detection of gas leakage

DOEpatents

Thornberg, Steven M; Brown, Jason

2015-02-17

A method of detecting leaks and measuring volumes as well as a device, the Power-free Pump Module (PPM), provides a self-contained leak test and volume measurement apparatus that requires no external sources of electrical power during leak testing or volume measurement. The PPM is a portable, pneumatically-controlled instrument capable of generating a vacuum, calibrating volumes, and performing quantitative leak tests on a closed test system or device, all without the use of alternating current (AC) power. Capabilities include the ability is to provide a modest vacuum (less than 10 Torr) using a venturi pump, perform a pressure rise leak test, measure the gas's absolute pressure, and perform volume measurements. All operations are performed through a simple rotary control valve which controls pneumatically-operated manifold valves.

Ion heating and flows in a high power helicon source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Derek S.; Agnello, Riccardo; Furno, Ivo; Howling, Alan; Jacquier, Rémy; Plyushchev, Gennady; Scime, Earl E.

2017-06-01

We report experimental measurements of ion temperatures and flows in a high power, linear, magnetized, helicon plasma device, the Resonant Antenna Ion Device (RAID). Parallel and perpendicular ion temperatures on the order of 0.6 eV are observed for an rf power of 4 kW, suggesting that higher power helicon sources should attain ion temperatures in excess of 1 eV. The unique RAID antenna design produces broad, uniform plasma density and perpendicular ion temperature radial profiles. Measurements of the azimuthal flow indicate rigid body rotation of the plasma column of a few kHz. When configured with an expanding magnetic field, modest parallel ion flows are observed in the expansion region. The ion flows and temperatures are derived from laser induced fluorescence measurements of the Doppler resolved velocity distribution functions of argon ions.

The study of the transition regime between slab and mixed slab-toroidal electron temperature gradient modes in a basic experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balbaky, Abed; Sokolov, Vladimir; Sen, Amiya K.

2015-05-15

Electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes are suspected sources of anomalous electron thermal transport in magnetically confined plasmas as in tokamaks. Prior work in the Columbia Linear Machine (CLM) has been able to produce and identify slab ETG modes in a slab geometry [Wei et al., Phys. Plasmas 17, 042108 (2010)]. Now by modifying CLM to introduce curvature to the confining axial magnetic field, we have excited mixed slab-toroidal modes. Linear theory predicts a transition between slab and toroidal ETG modes when (k{sub ∥}R{sub c})/(k{sub y}ρ) ∼1 [J. Kim and W. Horton, Phys. Fluids B 3, 1167 (1991)]. We observe changesmore » in the mode amplitude for levels of curvature R{sub c}{sup −1}≪(k{sub ∥,slab})/(k{sub ⊥}ρ) , which may be explained by reductions in k{sub ∥} in the transition from slab to mixed slab-toroidal modes, as also predicted by theory. We present mode amplitude scaling as a function of magnetic field curvature. Over the range of curvature available in CLM experimentally we find a modest increase in saturated ETG potential fluctuations (∼1.5×), and a substantial increase in the power density of individual mode peaks (∼4–5×)« less

Decision making in a multidisciplinary cancer team: does team discussion result in better quality decisions?

PubMed

Kee, Frank; Owen, Tracy; Leathem, Ruth

2004-01-01

To establish whether treatment recommendations made by clinicians concur with the best outcomes predicted from their prognostic estimates and whether team discussion improves the quality or outcome of their decision making, the authors studied real-time decision making by a lung cancer team. Clinicians completed pre- and postdiscussion questionnaires for 50 newly diagnosed patients. For each patient/doctor pairing, a decision model determined the expected patient outcomes from the clinician's prognostic estimates. The difference between the expected utility of the recommended treatment and the maximum utility derived from the clinician's predictions of the outcomes (the net utility loss) following all potential treatment modalities was calculated as an indicator of quality of the decision. The proportion of treatment decisions changed by the multidisciplinary team discussion was also calculated. Insofar as the change in net utility loss brought about by multidisciplinary team discussion was not significantly different from zero, team discussion did not improve the quality of decision making overall. However, given the modest power of the study, these findings must be interpreted with caution. In only 23 of 87 instances (26%) in which an individual specialist's initial treatment preference differed from the final group judgment did the specialist finally concur with the group treatment choice after discussion. This study does not support the theory that team discussion improves decision making by closing a knowledge gap.

Mapping the core mass function to the initial mass function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guszejnov, Dávid; Hopkins, Philip F.

2015-07-01

It has been shown that fragmentation within self-gravitating, turbulent molecular clouds (`turbulent fragmentation') can naturally explain the observed properties of protostellar cores, including the core mass function (CMF). Here, we extend recently developed analytic models for turbulent fragmentation to follow the time-dependent hierarchical fragmentation of self-gravitating cores, until they reach effectively infinite density (and form stars). We show that turbulent fragmentation robustly predicts two key features of the initial mass function (IMF). First, a high-mass power-law scaling very close to the Salpeter slope, which is a generic consequence of the scale-free nature of turbulence and self-gravity. We predict the IMF slope (-2.3) is slightly steeper than the CMF slope (-2.1), owing to the slower collapse and easier fragmentation of large cores. Secondly, a turnover mass, which is set by a combination of the CMF turnover mass (a couple solar masses, determined by the `sonic scale' of galactic turbulence, and so weakly dependent on galaxy properties), and the equation of state (EOS). A `soft' EOS with polytropic index γ < 1.0 predicts that the IMF slope becomes `shallow' below the sonic scale, but fails to produce the full turnover observed. An EOS, which becomes `stiff' at sufficiently low surface densities Σgas ˜ 5000 M⊙ pc-2, and/or models, where each collapsing core is able to heat and effectively stiffen the EOS of a modest mass (˜0.02 M⊙) of surrounding gas, are able to reproduce the observed turnover. Such features are likely a consequence of more detailed chemistry and radiative feedback.

Skid steer fuel cell powered unmanned ground vehicle (Burro)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meldrum, Jay S.; Green, Christopher A.

2008-04-01

The use of alternative energy technology for vehicle propulsion and auxiliary power is becoming more important. Work is being performed at Michigan Technological University's Keweenaw Research Center on an Army Research Laboratory cooperative agreement to develop two unmanned ground vehicles for military applications. A wide range of alternative energy technologies were investigated. Hydrogen-powered proton exchange membrane fuel cells were identified as the most appropriate alternative energy source. This is due to some development and commercialization which makes the technology "drop-in plug-in" for immediate use. We have previously presented research work on a small unmanned ground vehicle demonstration platform where the fuel cell is the only power source. We now present research work on the integration of a fuel cell onto a larger skid steer platform. The dual-power capability of this vehicle can provide a modest level of propulsion in "engine-off mode" and may also be used to power directed energy devices which have applications in countermine and similar threat technologies.

Fuel-cell powered unmanned ground vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meldrum, Jay S.; Green, Christopher A.; Gwaltney, Geoffrey D.; Bradley, Scott A.; Keith, Jason M.; Podlesak, Thomas F.

2007-04-01

The use of alternative energy technology for vehicle propulsion and auxiliary power is becoming more important. Work is being performed at Michigan Technological University's Keweenaw Research Center on an Army Research Laboratory cooperative agreement to develop two unmanned ground vehicles for military applications. A wide range of alternative energy technologies were investigated, and hydrogen-powered proton exchange membrane fuel cells were identified as the most appropriate alternative energy source. This is due to some development and commercialization which makes the technology "drop-in plug-in" for immediate use. We present research work on a small unmanned ground vehicle demonstration platform where the fuel cell is the only power source. We also present research work on the integration of a fuel cell onto a large existing platform. The dual-power capability of this vehicle can provide a modest level of propulsion in "engine-off mode" and may also be used to power directed energy devices which have applications in countermine and similar threat technologies.

Therapeutic Misconception in Research Subjects: Development and Validation of a Measure

PubMed Central

Appelbaum, Paul S.; Anatchkova, Milena; Albert, Karen; Dunn, Laura B.; Lidz, Charles W.

2013-01-01

Background Therapeutic misconception (TM), which occurs when research subjects fail to appreciate the distinction between the imperatives of clinical research and ordinary treatment, may undercut the process of obtaining meaningful consent to clinical research participation. Previous studies have found TM is widespread, but progress in addressing TM has been stymied by the absence of a validated method for assessing its presence. Purpose The goal of this study was to develop and validate a theoretically grounded measure of TM, assess its diagnostic accuracy, and test previous findings regarding its prevalence. Methods 220 participants were recruited from clinical trials at 4 academic medical centers in the U.S. Participants completed a 28-item Likert-type questionnaire to assess the presence of beliefs associated with TM, and a semi-structured TM interview designed to elicit their perceptions of the nature of the clinical trial in which they were participating. Data from the questionnaires were subjected to factor analysis and items with poor factor loadings were excluded. This resulted in a 10-item scale, with 3 strongly correlated factors and excellent internal consistency; the fit indices of the model across 10 training sets were consistent with the original results, suggesting a stable factor solution. Results The scale was validated against the TM interview, with significantly higher scores among subjects coded as displaying evidence of TM. ROC analysis based on a 10-fold internal cross-validation yielded AUC=.682 for any evidence of TM. When sensitivity (0.72) and specificity (0.61) were both optimized, Positive Predictive Value was 0.65 and Negative Predictive Value was 0.68, with a Positive Likelihood Ratio of 1.89, and a Negative Likelihood Ratio of 0.47. 50.5% (n=101) of participants manifested evidence of TM on the TM interview, a somewhat lower rate than in most previous studies. Limitations The predictive value of the scale compared with the “gold standard” clinical interview is modest, although similar to other instruments based on self-report assessing states of mind rather than discrete symptoms. Thus, although the scale can offer evidence of which subjects are at risk for distortions in their decisions and to what degree, it will not allow researchers to conclude definitively that TM is present in a given subject. Conclusions The development of a reliable and valid TM scale, even with modest predictive power, should permit investigators in clinical trials to identify subjects with tendencies to misinterpret the nature of the situation and to provide additional information to them. It should also stimulate research on how best to decrease TM and facilitate meaningful informed consent to clinical research. PMID:22942217

Aerospace Power: The Case for Indivisible Application

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-09-01

missile, used with such impact by Argentina during the Falklands battle, will be seen as just a modest beginning . The CEP of new weapons will likely be... Argentina to the Soviet Union, to accomplish a spectrum of combat missions with rapidly increasing effectiveness . The mixed nature of the "blessings of...aerospace forces according to their capabilities and the elimination of the rigid strategic and tactical stereotypes . 60 AEROSPACEPOWER These global

The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

2018-04-01

When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

Gas-fired power in the UK: Bridging supply gaps and implications of domestic shale gas exploitation for UK climate change targets.

PubMed

Turk, Jeremy K; Reay, David S; Haszeldine, R Stuart

2018-03-01

There is a projected shortcoming in the fourth carbon budget of 7.5%. This shortfall may be increased if the UK pursues a domestic shale gas industry to offset projected decreases in traditional gas supply. Here we estimate that, if the project domestic gas supply gap for power generation were to be met by UK shale gas with low fugitive emissions (0.08%), an additional 20.4MtCO 2 e 1 would need to be accommodated during carbon budget periods 3-6. We find that a modest fugitive emissions rate (1%) for UK shale gas would increase global emissions compared to importing an equal quantity of Qatari liquefied natural gas. Additionally, we estimate that natural gas electricity generation would emit 420-466MtCO 2 e (460 central estimate) during the same time period within the traded EU emissions cap. We conclude that domestic shale gas production with even a modest 1% fugitive emissions rate would risk exceedance of UK carbon budgets. We also highlight that, under the current production-based greenhouse gas accounting system, the UK is incentivized to import natural gas rather than produce it domestically. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ion Beam Propulsion Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

The Ion Beam Propulsion Study was a joint high-level study between the Applied Physics Laboratory operated by NASA and ASRC Aerospace at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and Berkeley Scientific, Berkeley, California. The results were promising and suggested that work should continue if future funding becomes available. The application of ion thrusters for spacecraft propulsion is limited to quite modest ion sources with similarly modest ion beam parameters because of the mass penalty associated with the ion source and its power supply system. Also, the ion source technology has not been able to provide very high-power ion beams. Small ion beam propulsion systems were used with considerable success. Ion propulsion systems brought into practice use an onboard ion source to form an energetic ion beam, typically Xe+ ions, as the propellant. Such systems were used for steering and correction of telecommunication satellites and as the main thruster for the Deep Space 1 demonstration mission. In recent years, "giant" ion sources were developed for the controlled-fusion research effort worldwide, with beam parameters many orders of magnitude greater than the tiny ones of conventional space thruster application. The advent of such huge ion beam sources and the need for advanced propulsion systems for exploration of the solar system suggest a fresh look at ion beam propulsion, now with the giant fusion sources in mind.

Aircraft Drag Prediction and Reduction

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-07-01

Figure 10 with their subsources. The major source groups are the airfiame noise sources, the propulsion system noise sources, and the lamirar-flow control ...the emerging areas of non -planar geometry and large-eddy alteration. Turbulent control techniques for air generally result in modest (but...17. 57. Ketchem, Jeffery J.; and Velkoff, Henry R.: An Experimental Investigation of the Effect of Electrically Induced Controlled Frequency

Generation of vacuum ultraviolet radiation by intracavity high-harmonic generation toward state detection of single trapped ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakui, Kentaro; Hayasaka, Kazuhiro; Ido, Tetsuya

2014-12-01

Vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation around 159 nm is obtained toward direct excitation of a single trapped ion. An efficient fluoride-based VUV output coupler is employed for intracavity high-harmonic generation of a Ti:S oscillator. Using this coupler, where we measured its reflectance to be about 90 %, an average power reaching 6.4 W is coupled out from a modest fundamental power of 650 mW. When a single comb component out of 1.9 10 teeth is resonant to the atomic transition, 100s of fluorescence photons per second will be detectable under a realistic condition.

Applications of the Electrodynamic Tether to Interstellar Travel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matloff, Gregory L.; Johnson, Les

2005-01-01

After considering relevant properties of the local interstellar medium and defining a sample interstellar mission, this paper considers possible interstellar applications of the electrodynamic tether, or EDT. These include use of the EDT to provide on-board power and affect trajectory modifications and direct application of the EDT to starship acceleration. It is demonstrated that comparatively modest EDTs can provide substantial quantities of on-board power, if combined with a large-area electron-collection device such as the Cassenti toroidal-field ramscoop. More substantial tethers can be used to accomplish large-radius thrustless turns. Direct application of the EDT to starship acceleration is apparently infeasible.

Permeation of protons, potassium ions, and small polar molecules through phospholipid bilayers as a function of membrane thickness.

PubMed Central

Paula, S; Volkov, A G; Van Hoek, A N; Haines, T H; Deamer, D W

1996-01-01

Two mechanisms have been proposed to account for solute permeation of lipid bilayers. Partitioning into the hydrophobic phase of the bilayer, followed by diffusion, is accepted by many for the permeation of water and other small neutral solutes, but transient pores have also been proposed to account for both water and ionic solute permeation. These two mechanisms make distinctively different predictions about the permeability coefficient as a function of bilayer thickness. Whereas the solubility-diffusion mechanism predicts only a modest variation related to bilayer thickness, the pore model predicts an exponential relationship. To test these models, we measured the permeability of phospholipid bilayers to protons, potassium ions, water, urea, and glycerol. Bilayers were prepared as liposomes, and thickness was varied systematically by using unsaturated lipids with chain lengths ranging from 14 to 24 carbon atoms. The permeability coefficient of water and neutral polar solutes displayed a modest dependence on bilayer thickness, with an approximately linear fivefold decrease as the carbon number varied from 14 to 24 atoms. In contrast, the permeability to protons and potassium ions decreased sharply by two orders of magnitude between 14 and 18 carbon atoms, and leveled off, when the chain length was further extended to 24 carbon atoms. The results for water and the neutral permeating solutes are best explained by the solubility-diffusion mechanism. The results for protons and potassium ions in shorter-chain lipids are consistent with the transient pore model, but better fit the theoretical line predicted by the solubility-diffusion model at longer chain lengths. PMID:8770210

Permeation of protons, potassium ions, and small polar molecules through phospholipid bilayers as a function of membrane thickness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paula, S.; Volkov, A. G.; Van Hoek, A. N.; Haines, T. H.; Deamer, D. W.

1996-01-01

Two mechanisms have been proposed to account for solute permeation of lipid bilayers. Partitioning into the hydrophobic phase of the bilayer, followed by diffusion, is accepted by many for the permeation of water and other small neutral solutes, but transient pores have also been proposed to account for both water and ionic solute permeation. These two mechanisms make distinctively different predictions about the permeability coefficient as a function of bilayer thickness. Whereas the solubility-diffusion mechanism predicts only a modest variation related to bilayer thickness, the pore model predicts an exponential relationship. To test these models, we measured the permeability of phospholipid bilayers to protons, potassium ions, water, urea, and glycerol. Bilayers were prepared as liposomes, and thickness was varied systematically by using unsaturated lipids with chain lengths ranging from 14 to 24 carbon atoms. The permeability coefficient of water and neutral polar solutes displayed a modest dependence on bilayer thickness, with an approximately linear fivefold decrease as the carbon number varied from 14 to 24 atoms. In contrast, the permeability to protons and potassium ions decreased sharply by two orders of magnitude between 14 and 18 carbon atoms, and leveled off, when the chain length was further extended to 24 carbon atoms. The results for water and the neutral permeating solutes are best explained by the solubility-diffusion mechanism. The results for protons and potassium ions in shorter-chain lipids are consistent with the transient pore model, but better fit the theoretical line predicted by the solubility-diffusion model at longer chain lengths.

Novel biomarkers for cardiovascular risk assessment: current status and future directions.

PubMed

MacNamara, James; Eapen, Danny J; Quyyumi, Arshed; Sperling, Laurence

2015-09-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in the modern world. Traditional risk algorithms may miss up to 20% of CVD events. Therefore, there is a need for new cardiac biomarkers. Many fields of research are dedicated to improving cardiac risk prediction, including genomics, transcriptomics and proteomics. To date, even the most promising biomarkers have only demonstrated modest associations and predictive ability. Few have undergone randomized control trials. A number of biomarkers are targets to new therapies aimed to reduce cardiovascular risk. Currently, some of the most promising risk prediction has been demonstrated with panels of multiple biomarkers. This article reviews the current state and future of proteomic biomarkers and aggregate biomarker panels.

Prediction of human population responses to toxic compounds by a collaborative competition.

PubMed

Eduati, Federica; Mangravite, Lara M; Wang, Tao; Tang, Hao; Bare, J Christopher; Huang, Ruili; Norman, Thea; Kellen, Mike; Menden, Michael P; Yang, Jichen; Zhan, Xiaowei; Zhong, Rui; Xiao, Guanghua; Xia, Menghang; Abdo, Nour; Kosyk, Oksana; Friend, Stephen; Dearry, Allen; Simeonov, Anton; Tice, Raymond R; Rusyn, Ivan; Wright, Fred A; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Xie, Yang; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio

2015-09-01

The ability to computationally predict the effects of toxic compounds on humans could help address the deficiencies of current chemical safety testing. Here, we report the results from a community-based DREAM challenge to predict toxicities of environmental compounds with potential adverse health effects for human populations. We measured the cytotoxicity of 156 compounds in 884 lymphoblastoid cell lines for which genotype and transcriptional data are available as part of the Tox21 1000 Genomes Project. The challenge participants developed algorithms to predict interindividual variability of toxic response from genomic profiles and population-level cytotoxicity data from structural attributes of the compounds. 179 submitted predictions were evaluated against an experimental data set to which participants were blinded. Individual cytotoxicity predictions were better than random, with modest correlations (Pearson's r < 0.28), consistent with complex trait genomic prediction. In contrast, predictions of population-level response to different compounds were higher (r < 0.66). The results highlight the possibility of predicting health risks associated with unknown compounds, although risk estimation accuracy remains suboptimal.

Natural selection and the predictability of evolution in Timema stick insects.

PubMed

Nosil, Patrik; Villoutreix, Romain; de Carvalho, Clarissa F; Farkas, Timothy E; Soria-Carrasco, Víctor; Feder, Jeffrey L; Crespi, Bernard J; Gompert, Zach

2018-02-16

Predicting evolution remains difficult. We studied the evolution of cryptic body coloration and pattern in a stick insect using 25 years of field data, experiments, and genomics. We found that evolution is more difficult to predict when it involves a balance between multiple selective factors and uncertainty in environmental conditions than when it involves feedback loops that cause consistent back-and-forth fluctuations. Specifically, changes in color-morph frequencies are modestly predictable through time ( r 2 = 0.14) and driven by complex selective regimes and yearly fluctuations in climate. In contrast, temporal changes in pattern-morph frequencies are highly predictable due to negative frequency-dependent selection ( r 2 = 0.86). For both traits, however, natural selection drives evolution around a dynamic equilibrium, providing some predictability to the process. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Needs assessment for business strategies of anesthesiology groups' practices.

PubMed

Scurlock, Corey; Dexter, Franklin; Reich, David L; Galati, Maria

2011-07-01

Progress has been made in understanding strategic decision making influencing anesthesia groups' operating room business practices. However, there has been little analysis of the remaining gaps in our knowledge. We performed a needs assessment to identify unsolved problems in anesthesia business strategy based on Porter's Five Forces Analysis. The methodology was a narrative literature review. We found little previous investigation for 2 of the 5 forces (threat of new entrants and bargaining power of suppliers), modest understanding for 1 force (threat of substitute products or services), and substantial understanding for 2 forces (bargaining power of customers and jockeying for position among current competitors). Additional research in strategic decisions influencing anesthesia groups should focus on the threat of new entrants, bargaining power of suppliers, and the threat of substitute products or services.

Energy-filtering-induced high power factor in PbS-nanoparticles-embedded TiS2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yulong; Wen, Junfu; Fan, Zhenghua; Bao, Ningzhong; Huang, Rong; Tu, Rong; Wang, Yifeng

2015-04-01

We report on a greatly enhanced power factor for 1%PbS-nanoparticle-embedded TiS2 bulk ceramic, about 1 mW/(mK2) at 300 K and 1.23 mW/(mK2) in a wide temperature range of 573 ˜ 673 K, of which the latter is among the highest so far for TiS2-based thermoelectric materials. Compared to TiS2, the power factor is increased by ˜110% at 300 K and (50 ˜ 35)% at 573 ˜ 673 K. This enhancement is derived from a large increase in Seebeck coefficient which overwhelmed the modest degradation of electrical conductivity, which should be attributed to energy filtering induced by the band gap offset between TiS2 and PbS.

Comparison of Orbital Parameters for GEO Debris Predicted by LEGEND and Observed by MODEST: Can Sources of Orbital Debris be Identified?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barker, Edwin S.; Matney, M. J.; Liou, J.-C.; Abercromby, K. J.; Rodriquez, H. M.; Seitzer, P.

2006-01-01

Since 2002 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has carried out an optical survey of the debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile. The survey coverage has been similar for 4 of the 5 years allowing us to follow the orbital evolution of Correlated Targets (CTs), both controlled and un-controlled objects, and Un-Correlated Targets (UCTs). Under gravitational perturbations the distributions of uncontrolled objects, both CTs and UCTs, in GEO orbits will evolve in predictable patterns, particularly evident in the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) distributions. There are several clusters (others have used a "cloud" nomenclature) in observed distributions that show evolution from year to year in their inclination and ascending node elements. However, when MODEST is in survey mode (field-of-view approx.1.3deg) it provides only short 5-8 minute orbital arcs which can only be fit under the assumption of a circular orbit approximation (ACO) to determine the orbital parameters. These ACO elements are useful only in a statistical sense as dedicated observing runs would be required to obtain sufficient orbital coverage to determine a set of accurate orbital elements and then to follow their evolution. Identification of the source(s) for these "clusters of UCTs" would be advantageous to the overall definition of the GEO orbital debris environment. This paper will set out to determine if the ACO elements can be used to in a statistical sense to identify the source of the "clustering of UCTs" roughly centered on an inclination of 12deg and a RAAN of 345deg. The breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage on February 21, 1992 has been modeled using NASA s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a GEO debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta-V distributions). Once fragments are created, they are propagated forward in time with a subroutine GEOPROP. Perturbations included in GEOPROP are those due to solar/lunar gravity, radiation pressure, and major geopotential terms. The question to be addressed: are the UCTs detected by MODEST in this inclination/RAAN region related to the Titan 3C-4 breakup? Discussion will include the observational biases in attempting to detect a specific, uncontrolled target during given observing session. These restrictions include: (1) the length of the observing session which is 8 hours or less at any given date or declination; (2) the assumption of ACO elements for detected object when the breakup model predicts debris with non-zero eccentricities; (3) the size and illumination or brightness of the debris predicted by the model and the telescope/sky limiting magnitude.

Transient and Steady-state Tests of the Space Power Research Engine with Resistive and Motor Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rauch, Jeffrey S.; Kankam, M. David

1995-01-01

The NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC) has been testing free-piston Stirling engine/linear alternators (FPSE/LA) to develop advanced power convertors for space-based electrical power generation. Tests reported herein were performed to evaluate the interaction and transient behavior of FPSE/LA-based power systems with typical user loads. Both resistive and small induction motor loads were tested with the space power research engine (SPRE) power system. Tests showed that the control system could maintain constant long term voltage and stable periodic operation over a large range of engine operating parameters and loads. Modest resistive load changes were shown to cause relatively large voltage and, therefore, piston and displacer amplitude excursions. Starting a typical small induction motor was shown to cause large and, in some cases, deleterious voltage transients. The tests identified the need for more effective controls, if FPSE/LAs are to be used for stand-alone power systems. The tests also generated a large body of transient dynamic data useful for analysis code validation.

Transient and steady-state tests of the space power research engine with resistive and motor loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauch, Jeffrey S.; Kankam, M. David

1995-01-01

The NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC) has been testing free-piston Stirling engine/linear alternators (FPSE/LA) to develop advanced power convertors for space-based electrical power generation. Tests reported herein were performed to evaluate the interaction and transient behavior of FPSE/LA-based power systems with typical user loads. Both resistive and small induction motor loads were tested with the space power research engine (SPRE) power system. Tests showed that the control system could maintain constant long term voltage and stable periodic operation over a large range of engine operating parameters and loads. Modest resistive load changes were shown to cause relatively large voltage and, therefore, piston and displacer amplitude excursions. Starting a typical small induction motor was shown to cause large and, in some cases, deleterious voltage transients. The tests identified the need for more effective controls, if FPSE/LAs are to be used for stand-alone power systems. The tests also generated a large body of transient dynamic data useful for analysis code validation.

CARBON NANOTUBES: PROPERTIES AND APPLICATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fischer, John, E.

2009-07-24

Carbon nanotubes were discovered in 1991 as a minority byproduct of fullerene synthesis. Remarkable progress has been made in the ensuing years, including the discovery of two basic types of nanotubes (single-wall and multi-wall), great strides in synthesis and purification, elucidation of many fundamental physical properties, and important steps towards practical applications. Both the underlying science and technological potential of SWNT can profitably be studied at the scale of individual tubes and on macroscopic assemblies such as fibers. Experiments on single tubes directly reveal many of the predicted quantum confinement and mechanical properties. Semiconductor nanowires have many features in commonmore » with nanotubes, and many of the same fundamental and practical issues are in play – quantum confinement and its effect on properties; possible device structures and circuit architectures; thermal management; optimal synthesis, defect morphology and control, etc. In 2000 we began a small effort in this direction, conducted entirely by undergraduates with minimal consumables support from this grant. With DOE-BES approval, this grew into a project in parallel with the carbon nanotube work, in which we studied of inorganic semiconductor nanowire growth, characterization and novel strategies for electronic and electromechanical device fabrication. From the beginnings of research on carbon nanotubes, one of the major applications envisioned was hydrogen storage for fuel-cell powered cars and trucks. Subsequent theoretical models gave mixed results, the most pessimistic indicating that the fundamental H2-SWNT interaction was similar to flat graphite (physisorption) with only modest binding energies implying cryogenic operation at best. New material families with encouraging measured properties have emerged, and materials modeling has gained enormously in predictive power, sophistication, and the ability to treat a realistically representative number of atoms. One of the new materials, highly porous carbide-derived carbons (CDC), is the subject of an add-on to this grant awarded to myself and Taner Yildirim (NIST). Results from the add-on led eventually to a new 3-year award DE-FG02-08ER46522 “From Fundamental Understanding to Predicting New Nanomaterials for High Capacity Hydrogen Storage”, $1000K, (05/31/2008 - 05/01/2011) with Taner Yildirim and myself as co-PI’s.« less

Intellectual Issues in the History of Artificial Intelligence

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-10-28

the history of science is in terms of important scientific events and discoveries, linked to and by the scientists who were responsible for them...knowledge (coupled, sometimes, with modest search). However, as is usual in the history of science , work on powerful Al programs never stopped; it only...for AL, perhaps, because the nature of mind seems i,* .othe quick. But the history of science reminds us easily 0enough that at various stages

Ion Heating and Flows in a High Power Helicon Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scime, Earl; Agnello, Riccardo; Furno, Ivo; Howling, Alan; Jacquier, Remy; Plyushchev, Gennady; Thompson, Derek

2017-10-01

We report experimental measurements of ion temperatures and flows in a high power, linear, magnetized, helicon plasma device, the Resonant Antenna Ion Device (RAID). RAID is equipped with a high power helicon source. Parallel and perpendicular ion temperatures on the order of 0.6 eV are observed for an rf power of 4 kW, suggesting that higher power helicon sources should attain ion temperatures in excess of 1 eV. The unique RAID antenna design produces broad, uniform plasma density and perpendicular ion temperature radial profiles. Measurements of the azimuthal flow indicate rigid body rotation of the plasma column of a few kHz. When configured with an expanding magnetic field, modest parallel ion flows are observed in the expansion region. The ion flows and temperatures are derived from laser induced fluorescence measurements of the Doppler resolved velocity distribution functions of argon ions. This work supported by U.S. National Science Foundation Grant No. PHY-1360278.

Predictive validity and correlates of self-assessed resilience among U.S. Army soldiers.

PubMed

Campbell-Sills, Laura; Kessler, Ronald C; Ursano, Robert J; Sun, Xiaoying; Taylor, Charles T; Heeringa, Steven G; Nock, Matthew K; Sampson, Nancy A; Jain, Sonia; Stein, Murray B

2018-02-01

Self-assessment of resilience could prove valuable to military and other organizations whose personnel confront foreseen stressors. We evaluated the validity of self-assessed resilience among U.S. Army soldiers, including whether predeployment perceived resilience predicted postdeployment emotional disorder. Resilience was assessed via self-administered questionnaire among new soldiers reporting for basic training (N = 35,807) and experienced soldiers preparing to deploy to Afghanistan (N = 8,558). Concurrent validity of self-assessed resilience was evaluated among recruits by estimating its association with past-month emotional disorder. Predictive validity was examined among 3,526 experienced soldiers with no lifetime emotional disorder predeployment. Predictive models estimated associations of predeployment resilience with incidence of emotional disorder through 9 months postdeployment and with marked improvement in coping at 3 months postdeployment. Weights-adjusted regression models incorporated stringent controls for risk factors. Soldiers characterized themselves as very resilient on average [M = 14.34, SD = 4.20 (recruits); M = 14.75, SD = 4.31 (experienced soldiers); theoretical range = 0-20]. Demographic characteristics exhibited only modest associations with resilience, while severity of childhood maltreatment was negatively associated with resilience in both samples. Among recruits, resilience was inversely associated with past-month emotional disorder [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.62-0.68, P < .0005 (per standard score increase)]. Among deployed soldiers, greater predeployment resilience was associated with decreased incidence of emotional disorder (AOR = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.84-0.98; P = .016) and increased odds of improved coping (AOR = 1.36; 95% CI = 1.24-1.49; P < .0005) postdeployment. Findings supported validity of self-assessed resilience among soldiers, although its predictive effect on incidence of emotional disorder was modest. In conjunction with assessment of known risk factors, measurement of resilience could help predict adaptation to foreseen stressors like deployment. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

What's in a Teacher Test? Assessing the Relationship between Teacher Licensure Test Scores and Student STEM Achievement and Course-Taking. Working Paper 158

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Gratz, Trevor; Theobald, Roddy

2016-01-01

We investigate the relationship between teacher licensure test scores and student test achievement and high school course-taking. We focus on three subject/grade combinations--middle school math, ninth-grade algebra and geometry, and ninth-grade biology--and find evidence that a teacher's basic skills test scores are modestly predictive of student…

What's in a Teacher Test? Assessing the Relationship between Teacher Test Scores and Student Secondary STEM Achievement. CEDR Working Paper. WP #2016-4

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Gratz, Trevor; Theobald, Roddy

2016-01-01

We investigate the predictive validity of teacher credential test scores for student performance in secondary STEM classrooms in Washington state. After replicating earlier findings that teacher basic skills licensure test scores are a modest and statistically significant predictor of student math test score gains in elementary grades, we focus on…

Utilizing Structural Equation Modeling and Social Cognitive Career Theory to Identify Factors in Choice of It as a Major

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luse, Andy; Rursch, Julie A.; Jacobson, Doug

2014-01-01

In the United States, the number of students entering into and completing degrees in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) areas has declined significantly over the past decade. Although modest increases have been shown in enrollments in computer-related majors in the past 4 years, the prediction is that even in 3 to 4 years…

Stability and minimum size of colloidal clusters on a liquid-air interface.

PubMed

Pergamenshchik, V M

2012-02-01

A vertical force applied to each of two colloids, trapped at a liquid-air interface, induces their logarithmic pairwise attraction. I recently showed [Phys. Rev. E 79, 011407 (2009)] that in clusters of size R much larger than the capillary length λ, the attraction changes to that of a power law and is much stronger due to a many-body effect, and I derived two equations that describe the equilibrium coarse-grained meniscus profile and colloid density in such clusters. In this paper, this theory is shown also to describe small clusters with R≪ λ provided the number N of colloids therein is sufficiently large. An analytical solution for a small circular cluster with an arbitrary short-range power-law pairwise repulsion is found. The energy of a cluster is obtained as a function of its radius R and colloid number N. As in large clusters, the attraction force and energy universally scale with the distance L between colloids as L(-3) and L(-2), respectively, for any repulsion forces. The states of an equilibrium cluster, predicted by the theory, are shown to be stable with respect to small perturbations of the meniscus profile and colloid density. The minimum number of colloids in a circular cluster, which sustains the thermal motion, is estimated. For standard parameters, it can be very modest, e.g., in the range 20-200, which is in line with experimental findings on reversible clusterization on a liquid-air interface. © 2012 American Physical Society

Confinement- and strain-induced enhancement of thermoelectric properties in LaNiO3/LaAlO3(001 ) superlattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geisler, Benjamin; Pentcheva, Rossitza

2018-05-01

By combining ab initio simulations including an on-site Coulomb repulsion term and Boltzmann theory, we explore the thermoelectric properties of (LaNiO3)n /(LaAlO3)n (001) superlattices (n =1 ,3 ) and identify a strong dependence on confinement, spacer thickness, and epitaxial strain. While the system with n =3 shows modest values of the Seebeck coefficient and power factor, the simultaneous reduction of the LaNiO3 region and the LaAlO3 spacer thickness to single layers results in a strong enhancement, in particular of the in-plane values. This effect can be further tuned by using epitaxial strain as a control parameter: Under tensile strain corresponding to the lateral lattice constant of SrTiO3 we predict in- and cross-plane Seebeck coefficients of ±600 μ V /K and an in-plane power factor of 11 μ W /K2cm for an estimated relaxation time of τ =4 fs around room temperature. These values are comparable to some of the best performing oxide systems such as La-doped SrTiO3 or layered cobaltates and are associated with the opening of a small gap (0.29 eV) induced by the concomitant effect of octahedral tilting and Ni-site disproportionation. This establishes oxide superlattices at the verge of a metal-to-insulator transition driven by confinement and strain as promising candidates for thermoelectric materials.

The potential impact of integrated malaria transmission control on entomologic inoculation rate in highly endemic areas.

PubMed

Killeen, G F; McKenzie, F E; Foy, B D; Schieffelin, C; Billingsley, P F; Beier, J C

2000-05-01

We have used a relatively simple but accurate model for predicting the impact of integrated transmission control on the malaria entomologic inoculation rate (EIR) at four endemic sites from across sub-Saharan Africa and the southwest Pacific. The simulated campaign incorporated modestly effective vaccine coverage, bed net use, and larval control. The results indicate that such campaigns would reduce EIRs at all four sites by 30- to 50-fold. Even without the vaccine, 15- to 25-fold reductions of EIR were predicted, implying that integrated control with a few modestly effective tools can meaningfully reduce malaria transmission in a range of endemic settings. The model accurately predicts the effects of bed nets and indoor spraying and demonstrates that they are the most effective tools available for reducing EIR. However, the impact of domestic adult vector control is amplified by measures for reducing the rate of emergence of vectors or the level of infectiousness of the human reservoir. We conclude that available tools, including currently neglected methods for larval control, can reduce malaria transmission intensity enough to alleviate mortality. Integrated control programs should be implemented to the fullest extent possible, even in areas of intense transmission, using simple models as decision-making tools. However, we also conclude that to eliminate malaria in many areas of intense transmission is beyond the scope of methods which developing nations can currently afford. New, cost-effective, practical tools are needed if malaria is ever to be eliminated from highly endemic areas.

GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barker, Edwin S.; Matney, Mark J.

2007-01-01

Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan/CTIO, Astronomical Institute University of Bern, Boeing LTS / AMOS, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics) at different longitudes. Complete observational coverage over periods of days to months will provide a better understanding of the properties, such as solar radiation pressure effects on orbital elements, size, shape, attitude, color variations, and spectral characteristics. Results from recent observational programs will be summarized, and includes a description of the orbit elements prediction processes, a summary of the metric tracking performance, and some photometric characteristics of this class of debris.

WeFold: A Coopetition for Protein Structure Prediction

PubMed Central

Khoury, George A.; Liwo, Adam; Khatib, Firas; Zhou, Hongyi; Chopra, Gaurav; Bacardit, Jaume; Bortot, Leandro O.; Faccioli, Rodrigo A.; Deng, Xin; He, Yi; Krupa, Pawel; Li, Jilong; Mozolewska, Magdalena A.; Sieradzan, Adam K.; Smadbeck, James; Wirecki, Tomasz; Cooper, Seth; Flatten, Jeff; Xu, Kefan; Baker, David; Cheng, Jianlin; Delbem, Alexandre C. B.; Floudas, Christodoulos A.; Keasar, Chen; Levitt, Michael; Popović, Zoran; Scheraga, Harold A.; Skolnick, Jeffrey; Crivelli, Silvia N.; Players, Foldit

2014-01-01

The protein structure prediction problem continues to elude scientists. Despite the introduction of many methods, only modest gains were made over the last decade for certain classes of prediction targets. To address this challenge, a social-media based worldwide collaborative effort, named WeFold, was undertaken by thirteen labs. During the collaboration, the labs were simultaneously competing with each other. Here, we present the first attempt at “coopetition” in scientific research applied to the protein structure prediction and refinement problems. The coopetition was possible by allowing the participating labs to contribute different components of their protein structure prediction pipelines and create new hybrid pipelines that they tested during CASP10. This manuscript describes both successes and areas needing improvement as identified throughout the first WeFold experiment and discusses the efforts that are underway to advance this initiative. A footprint of all contributions and structures are publicly accessible at http://www.wefold.org. PMID:24677212

Nonstandard Lumbar Region in Predicting Fracture Risk.

PubMed

Alajlouni, Dima; Bliuc, Dana; Tran, Thach; Pocock, Nicholas; Nguyen, Tuan V; Eisman, John A; Center, Jacqueline R

Femoral neck (FN) bone mineral density (BMD) is the most commonly used skeletal site to estimate fracture risk. The role of lumbar spine (LS) BMD in fracture risk prediction is less clear due to osteophytes that spuriously increase LS BMD, particularly at lower levels. The aim of this study was to compare fracture predictive ability of upper L1-L2 BMD with standard L2-L4 BMD and assess whether the addition of either LS site could improve fracture prediction over FN BMD. This study comprised a prospective cohort of 3016 women and men over 60 yr from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study followed up for occurrence of minimal trauma fractures from 1989 to 2014. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure BMD at L1-L2, L2-L4, and FN at baseline. Fracture risks were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models separately for each site. Predictive performances were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. There were 565 women and 179 men with a minimal trauma fracture during a mean of 11 ± 7 yr. L1-L2 BMD T-score was significantly lower than L2-L4 T-score in both genders (p < 0.0001). L1-L2 and L2-L4 BMD models had a similar fracture predictive ability. LS BMD was better than FN BMD in predicting vertebral fracture risk in women [area under the curve 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.79) vs 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.74), but FN was superior for hip fractures prediction in both women and men. The addition of L1-L2 or L2-L4 to FN BMD in women increased overall and vertebral predictive power compared with FN BMD alone by 1% and 4%, respectively (p < 0.05). In an elderly population, L1-L2 is as good as but not better than L2-L4 site in predicting fracture risk. The addition of LS BMD to FN BMD provided a modest additional benefit in overall fracture risk. Further studies in individuals with spinal degenerative disease are needed. Copyright © 2017 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surface Management System Departure Event Data Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monroe, Gilena A.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a data analysis of the Surface Management System (SMS) performance of departure events, including push-back and runway departure events.The paper focuses on the detection performance, or the ability to detect departure events, as well as the prediction performance of SMS. The results detail a modest overall detection performance of push-back events and a significantly high overall detection performance of runway departure events. The overall detection performance of SMS for push-back events is approximately 55%.The overall detection performance of SMS for runway departure events nears 100%. This paper also presents the overall SMS prediction performance for runway departure events as well as the timeliness of the Aircraft Situation Display for Industry data source for SMS predictions.

Recommendations for evaluation of computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Ajay N.; Nicholls, Anthony

2008-03-01

The field of computational chemistry, particularly as applied to drug design, has become increasingly important in terms of the practical application of predictive modeling to pharmaceutical research and development. Tools for exploiting protein structures or sets of ligands known to bind particular targets can be used for binding-mode prediction, virtual screening, and prediction of activity. A serious weakness within the field is a lack of standards with respect to quantitative evaluation of methods, data set preparation, and data set sharing. Our goal should be to report new methods or comparative evaluations of methods in a manner that supports decision making for practical applications. Here we propose a modest beginning, with recommendations for requirements on statistical reporting, requirements for data sharing, and best practices for benchmark preparation and usage.

Ain't no mountain high enough? Setting high weight loss goals predict effort and short-term weight loss.

PubMed

De Vet, Emely; Nelissen, Rob M A; Zeelenberg, Marcel; De Ridder, Denise T D

2013-05-01

Although psychological theories outline that it might be beneficial to set more challenging goals, people attempting to lose weight are generally recommended to set modest weight loss goals. The present study explores whether the amount of weight loss individuals strive for is associated with more positive psychological and behavioral outcomes. Hereto, 447 overweight and obese participants trying to lose weight completed two questionnaires with a 2-month interval. Many participants set goals that could be considered unrealistically high. However, higher weight loss goals did not predict dissatisfaction but predicted more effort in the weight loss attempt, as well as more self-reported short-term weight loss when baseline commitment and motivation were controlled for.

Well-Being Tracking via Smartphone-Measured Activity and Sleep: Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Feygin, Sidney; Dembo, Aluma; Aguilera, Adrian; Recht, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Background Automatically tracking mental well-being could facilitate personalization of treatments for mood disorders such as depression and bipolar disorder. Smartphones present a novel and ubiquitous opportunity to track individuals’ behavior and may be useful for inferring and automatically monitoring mental well-being. Objective The aim of this study was to assess the extent to which activity and sleep tracking with a smartphone can be used for monitoring individuals’ mental well-being. Methods A cohort of 106 individuals was recruited to install an app on their smartphone that would track their well-being with daily surveys and track their behavior with activity inferences from their phone’s accelerometer data. Of the participants recruited, 53 had sufficient data to infer activity and sleep measures. For this subset of individuals, we related measures of activity and sleep to the individuals’ well-being and used these measures to predict their well-being. Results We found that smartphone-measured approximations for daily physical activity were positively correlated with both mood (P=.004) and perceived energy level (P<.001). Sleep duration was positively correlated with mood (P=.02) but not energy. Our measure for sleep disturbance was not found to be significantly related to either mood or energy, which could imply too much noise in the measurement. Models predicting the well-being measures from the activity and sleep measures were found to be significantly better than naive baselines (P<.01), despite modest overall improvements. Conclusions Measures of activity and sleep inferred from smartphone activity were strongly related to and somewhat predictive of participants’ well-being. Whereas the improvement over naive models was modest, it reaffirms the importance of considering physical activity and sleep for predicting mood and for making automatic mood monitoring a reality. PMID:28982643

Design, fabrication, and testing of a SMA hybrid composite jet engine chevron

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, Travis L.; Cabell, Randolph H.; Cano, Roberto J.; Fleming, Gary A.

2006-01-01

Control of jet noise continues to be an important research topic. Exhaust nozzle chevrons have been shown to reduce jet noise, but parametric effects are not well understood. Additionally, thrust loss due to chevrons at cruise suggests significant benefit from deployable chevrons. The focus of this study is development of an active chevron concept for the primary purpose of parametric studies for jet noise reduction in the laboratory and technology development to leverage for full scale systems. The active chevron concept employed in this work consists of a laminated composite structure with embedded shape memory alloy (SMA) actuators, termed a SMA hybrid composite (SMAHC). The actuators are embedded on one side of the middle surface such that thermal excitation generates a moment and deflects the structure. A brief description of the chevron design is given followed by details of the fabrication approach. Results from bench top tests are presented and correlated with numerical predictions from a model for such structures that was recently implemented in MSC.Nastran and ABAQUS. Excellent performance and agreement with predictions is demonstrated. Results from tests in a representative flow environment are also presented. Excellent performance is again achieved for both open- and closed-loop tests, the latter demonstrating control to a specified immersion into the flow. The actuation authority and immersion performance is shown to be relatively insensitive to nozzle pressure ratio (NPR). Very repeatable immersion control with modest power requirements is demonstrated.

Dissection of complex adult traits in a mouse synthetic population.

PubMed

Burke, David T; Kozloff, Kenneth M; Chen, Shu; West, Joshua L; Wilkowski, Jodi M; Goldstein, Steven A; Miller, Richard A; Galecki, Andrzej T

2012-08-01

Finding the causative genetic variations that underlie complex adult traits is a significant experimental challenge. The unbiased search strategy of genome-wide association (GWAS) has been used extensively in recent human population studies. These efforts, however, typically find only a minor fraction of the genetic loci that are predicted to affect variation. As an experimental model for the analysis of adult polygenic traits, we measured a mouse population for multiple phenotypes and conducted a genome-wide search for effector loci. Complex adult phenotypes, related to body size and bone structure, were measured as component phenotypes, and each subphenotype was associated with a genomic spectrum of candidate effector loci. The strategy successfully detected several loci for the phenotypes, at genome-wide significance, using a single, modest-sized population (N = 505). The effector loci each explain 2%-10% of the measured trait variation and, taken together, the loci can account for over 25% of a trait's total population variation. A replicate population (N = 378) was used to confirm initially observed loci for one trait (femur length), and, when the two groups were merged, the combined population demonstrated increased power to detect loci. In contrast to human population studies, our mouse genome-wide searches find loci that individually explain a larger fraction of the observed variation. Also, the additive effects of our detected mouse loci more closely match the predicted genetic component of variation. The genetic loci discovered are logical candidates for components of the genetic networks having evolutionary conservation with human biology.

Reevaluation of RINT1 as a breast cancer predisposition gene.

PubMed

Li, Na; Thompson, Ella R; Rowley, Simone M; McInerny, Simone; Devereux, Lisa; Goode, David; Investigators, LifePool; Wong-Brown, Michelle W; Scott, Rodney J; Trainer, Alison H; Gorringe, Kylie L; James, Paul A; Campbell, Ian G

2016-09-01

Rad50 interactor 1 (RINT1) has recently been reported as an intermediate-penetrance (odds ratio 3.24) breast cancer susceptibility gene, as well as a risk factor for Lynch syndrome. The coding regions and exon-intron boundaries of RINT1 were sequenced in 2024 familial breast cancer cases previously tested negative for BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 mutations and 1886 population-matched cancer-free controls using HaloPlex Targeted Enrichment Assays. Only one RINT1 protein-truncating variant was detected in a control. No excess was observed in the total number of rare variants (truncating and missense) (28, 1.38 %, vs. 27, 1.43 %. P > 0.999) or in the number of variants predicted to be pathogenic by various in silico tools (Condel, Polyphen2, SIFT, and CADD) in the cases compared to the controls. In addition, there was no difference in the incidence of classic Lynch syndrome cancers in RINT1 rare variant-carrying families compared to RINT1 wild-type families. This study had 90 % power to detect an odds ratio of at least 2.06, and the results do not provide any support for RINT1 being a moderate-penetrance breast cancer susceptibility gene, although larger studies will be required to exclude more modest effects. This study emphasizes the need for caution before designating a cancer predisposition role for any gene based on very rare truncating variants and in silico-predicted missense variants.

Power systems for production, construction, life support and operations in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sovie, Ronald J.

1988-01-01

As one looks to man's future in space it becomes obvious that unprecedented amounts of power are required for the exploration, colonization, and exploitation of space. Activities envisioned include interplanetary travel and LEO to GEO transport using electric propulsion, Earth and lunar observatories, advance space stations, free-flying manufacturing platforms, communications platforms, and eventually evolutionary lunar and Mars bases. These latter bases would start as camps with modest power requirements (kWes) and evolve to large bases as manufacturing, food production, and life support materials are developed from lunar raw materials. These latter activities require very robust power supplies (MWes). The advanced power system technologies being pursued by NASA to fulfill these future needs are described. Technologies discussed will include nuclear, photovoltaic, and solar dynamic space power systems, including energy storage, power conditioning, power transmission, and thermal management. The state-of-the-art and gains to be made by technology advancements will be discussed. Mission requirements for a variety of applications (LEO, GEO, lunar, and Martian) will be treated, and data for power systems ranging from a few kilowatts to megawatt power systems will be represented. In addition the space power technologies being initiated under NASA's new Civilian Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) and Space Leadership Planning Group Activities will be discussed.

Power systems for production, construction, life support, and operations in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sovie, Ronald J.

1988-01-01

As one looks to man's future in space it becomes obvious that unprecedented amounts of power are required for the exploration, colonization, and exploitation of space. Activities envisioned include interplanetary travel and LEO to GEO transport using electric propulsion, earth and lunar observatories, advance space stations, free-flying manufacturing platforms, communications platforms, and eventually evolutionary lunar and Mars bases. These latter bases would start as camps with modest power requirements (kWes) and evolve to large bases as manufacturing, food production, and life support materials are developed from lunar raw materials. These latter activities require very robust power supplies (MWes). The advanced power system technologies being pursued by NASA to fulfill these future needs are described. Technologies discussed will include nuclear, photovoltaic, and solar dynamic space power systems, including energy storage, power conditioning, power transmission, and thermal management. The state-of-the-art and gains to be made by technology advancements will be discussed. Mission requirements for a variety of applications (LEO, GEO, lunar, and Martian) will be treated, and data for power systems ranging from a few kilowatts to megawatt power systems will be represented. In addition the space power technologies being initiated under NASA's new Civilian Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) and Space Leadership Planning Group Activities will be discussed.

Measurement Uncertainty Within the Uniform Engine Test Programme

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-05-01

Design to Cost and l.ifc (.cle Cost to Aircraft Engines AGARD LS 107 (May 1980) Microcomputer Applications in Power and Propulsion Systems AGARD LS...Flows in Propulsion Systems AGARD LS 140 (June 1985) Engine Airframe Integration for Rotorcraft AGARD LS 148 (June 1986) Design Methods Used in Solid...modest nero-thermodynamic design was of no consequence. Two engines were loaned to the proeram by the U.S. Air Force. Due to higher priority test workload

Wire-packed heat exchangers for dilution refrigerators.

PubMed

Polturak, E; Rappaport, M; Rosenbaum, R

1978-03-01

Very simple wire-packed step heat exchangers for dilution refrigerators are described. No sintering is used in fabrication. Flow impedances and thermal resistance between the liquid and the copper wires are low. A refrigerator with five wire-packed heat exchangers in addition to a countercurrent heat exchanger attains a temperature of 11.4 mK with a single mixing chamber and 6.1 mK with two mixing chambers. High cooling power is achieved at modest (3)He circulation rates.

The cultural evolution of fertility decline

PubMed Central

Colleran, Heidi

2016-01-01

Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079

Studies of BL Lacertae objects with the Einstein Observatory - The soft X-ray spectra of OJ 287 and PKS 0735+178

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madejski, Greg M.; Schwartz, Daniel A.

1988-01-01

Accurate, soft X-ray spectra of two BL Lac objects, OJ 287 and PKS 0735+178, are presented. The X-ray spectra are well described by a power-law model with a low-energy cutoff consistent with photoelectric absorption within the Galaxy. The best-fit values of the energy spectral index in the 0.2-4.0 keV band are 0.91 and 0.76 respectively. The X-ray flux from OJ 287 is variable by a ratio of three from low to high state; PKS 0735+178 shows no indication of X-ray variability. The X-ray emission in OJ 287 is interpreted to be due to the synchrotron process from a volume common with either a beamed radio component or a stationary optical component. In PKS 0735+178, where the X-ray emission is most likely due to the Compton process operating in one of the VLBI radio components. The synchrotron self-Compton process with modest kinematic Doppler factors predicts the measured X-ray flux from PKS 0735+178 and lower than the measured flux in OJ 287.

Contribution of mitral valve leaflet length and septal wall thickness to outflow tract obstruction in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Morant, Kareem; Mikami, Yoko; Nevis, Immaculate; McCarty, David; Stirrat, John; Scholl, David; Rajchl, Martin; Giannoccaro, Peter; Kolman, Louis; Heydari, Bobby; Lydell, Carmen; Howarth, Andrew; Grant, Andrew; White, James A

2017-08-01

We sought to examine whether elongation of the mitral valve leaflets in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is synergistic to septal wall thickness (SWT) in the development of left ventricular outflow tract obstruction (LVOTO). HCM is a common genetic cardiac disease characterized by asymmetric septal hypertrophy and predisposition towards LVOTO. It has been reported that elongation of the mitral valve leaflets may be a primary phenotypic feature and contribute to LVOTO. However, the relative contribution of this finding versus SWT has not been studied. 152 patients (76 with HCM and 76 non-diseased age, race and BSA-matched controls) and 18 young, healthy volunteers were studied. SWT and the anterior mitral valve leaflet length (AMVLL) were measured using cine MRI. The combined contribution of these variables (SWT × AMVLL) was described as the Septal Anterior Leaflet Product (SALP). Peak LVOT pressure gradient was determined by Doppler interrogation and defined as "obstructive" if ≥ 30 mmHg. Patients with HCM were confirmed to have increased AMVLL compared with controls and volunteers (p < 0.01). Among HCM patients, both SWT and SALP were significantly higher in patients with LVOTO (N = 17) versus without. SALP showed modest improvement in predictive accuracy for LVOTO (AUC = 0.81) among the HCM population versus SWT alone (AUC = 0.77). However, in isolated patients this variable identified patients with LVOTO despite modest SWT. Elongation of the AMVLL is a primary phenotypic feature of HCM. While incremental contributions to LVOTO appear modest at a population level, specific patients may have dominant contribution to LVOTO. The combined marker of SALP allows for maintained identification of such patients despite modest increases in SWT.

Assessing Professional Competence by Using Occupational Judgment Tests Derived From Job Analysis Questionnaires

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

theoretical framework developed by Edward L. Thorndike and his contemporaries (1935), proposed that (a) learning occurs in both formal and informal settings...implies, and general learning theory ( Thorndike , 1935) suggests, that more motivated employees should acquire more knowledge, so there should be a...that is predicted by tacit knowledge and general learning theory (Sternberg & Wagner, 1993; Thorndike , 1935). Table 3 reports modest true-score

What's in a Teacher Test? Assessing the Relationship between Teacher Licensure Test Scores and Student STEM Achievement and Course-Taking. CEDR Working Paper. WP #2016-11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Gratz, Trevor; Theobald, Roddy

2016-01-01

We investigate the relationship between teacher licensure test scores and student test achievement and high school course-taking. We focus on three subject/grade combinations-- middle school math, ninth-grade algebra and geometry, and ninth-grade biology--and find evidence that a teacher's basic skills test scores are modestly predictive of…

Suspension Parameter Measurements of Wheeled Military Vehicles

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

suspension through the wheel pads. The SPIdER was designed so that in the future, with a modest amount of modification , it can be upgraded to include the...AND MOBILITY (P&M) MINI-SYMPOSIUM AUGUST 14-16, MICHIGAN SUSPENSION PARAMETER MEASUREMENTS OF WHEELED MILITARY VEHICLES Dale Andreatta Gary...was built to measure the suspension parameters of any military wheeled vehicle. This is part of an ongoing effort to model and predict vehicle

A Comparison Between the Time-Management Skills and Academic Performance of Mature and Traditional-Entry University Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trueman, Mark; Hartley, James

1996-01-01

A study of first-time university students, aged under 21 (n=172), 21-25 (n=50), and over 25 years (n=71) found that women in general reported more time-management skills than men and that older students had better time-management skills than younger students. Academic performance was only modestly predicted by age and scores on one component of…

Abatement of an aircraft exhaust plume using aerodynamic baffles.

PubMed

Bennett, Michael; Christie, Simon M; Graham, Angus; Garry, Kevin P; Velikov, Stefan; Poll, D Ian; Smith, Malcolm G; Mead, M Iqbal; Popoola, Olalekan A M; Stewart, Gregor B; Jones, Roderic L

2013-03-05

The exhaust jet from a departing commercial aircraft will eventually rise buoyantly away from the ground; given the high thrust/power (i.e., momentum/buoyancy) ratio of modern aero-engines, however, this is a slow process, perhaps requiring ∼ 1 min or more. Supported by theoretical and wind tunnel modeling, we have experimented with an array of aerodynamic baffles on the surface behind a set of turbofan engines of 124 kN thrust. Lidar and point sampler measurements show that, as long as the intervention takes place within the zone where the Coanda effect holds the jet to the surface (i.e., within about 70 m in this case), then quite modest surface-mounted baffles can rapidly lift the jet away from the ground. This is of potential benefit in abating both surface concentrations and jet blast downstream. There is also some modest acoustic benefit. By distributing the aerodynamic lift and drag across an array of baffles, each need only be a fraction of the height of a single blast fence.

Enhancing the 'real world' prediction of cardiovascular events and major bleeding with the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores using multiple biomarkers.

PubMed

Roldán, Vanessa; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Shantsila, Alena; García-Fernández, Amaya; Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Vilchez, Juan Antonio; Romera, Marta; Valdés, Mariano; Vicente, Vicente; Marín, Francisco; Lip, Gregory Y H

2018-02-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF)-European guidelines suggest the use of biomarkers to stratify patients for stroke and bleeding risks. We investigated if a multibiomarker strategy improved the predictive performance of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED in anticoagulated AF patients. We included consecutive patients stabilized for six months on vitamin K antagonists (INRs 2.0-3.0). High sensitivity troponin T, NT-proBNP, interleukin-6, von Willebrand factor concentrations and glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; using MDRD-4 formula) were quantified at baseline. Time in therapeutic range (TTR) was recorded at six months after inclusion. Patients were follow-up during a median of 2375 (IQR 1564-2887) days and all adverse events were recorded. In 1361 patients, adding four blood biomarkers, TTR and MDRD-eGFR, the predictive value of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc increased significantly by c-index (0.63 vs. 0.65; p = .030) and IDI (0.85%; p < .001), but not by NRI (-2.82%; p < .001). The predictive value of HAS-BLED increased up to 1.34% by IDI (p < .001). Nevertheless, the overall predictive value remains modest (c-indexes approximately 0.65) and decision curve analyses found lower net benefit compared with the originals scores. Addition of biomarkers enhanced the predictive value of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED, although the overall improvement was modest and the added predictive advantage over original scores was marginal. Key Messages Recent atrial fibrillation (AF)-European guidelines for the first time suggest the use of biomarkers to stratify patients for stroke and bleeding risks, but their usefulness in real world for risk stratification is still questionable. In this cohort study involving 1361 AF patients optimally anticoagulated with vitamin K antagonists, adding high sensitivity troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, interleukin 6, von Willebrand factor, glomerular filtration rate (by the MDRD-4 formula) and time in therapeutic range, increased the predictive value of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc for cardiovascular events, but not the predictive value of HAS-BLED for major bleeding. Reclassification analyses did not show improvement adding multiple biomarkers. Despite the improvement observed, the added predictive advantage is marginal and the clinical usefulness and net benefit over current clinical scores is lower.

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

Predictive validity of the UKCAT for medical school undergraduate performance: a national prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tiffin, Paul A; Mwandigha, Lazaro M; Paton, Lewis W; Hesselgreaves, H; McLachlan, John C; Finn, Gabrielle M; Kasim, Adetayo S

2016-09-26

The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) has been shown to have a modest but statistically significant ability to predict aspects of academic performance throughout medical school. Previously, this ability has been shown to be incremental to conventional measures of educational performance for the first year of medical school. This study evaluates whether this predictive ability extends throughout the whole of undergraduate medical study and explores the potential impact of using the test as a selection screening tool. This was an observational prospective study, linking UKCAT scores, prior educational attainment and sociodemographic variables with subsequent academic outcomes during the 5 years of UK medical undergraduate training. The participants were 6812 entrants to UK medical schools in 2007-8 using the UKCAT. The main outcome was academic performance at each year of medical school. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was also conducted, treating the UKCAT as a screening test for a negative academic outcome (failing at least 1 year at first attempt). All four of the UKCAT scale scores significantly predicted performance in theory- and skills-based exams. After adjustment for prior educational achievement, the UKCAT scale scores remained significantly predictive for most years. Findings from the ROC analysis suggested that, if used as a sole screening test, with the mean applicant UKCAT score as the cut-off, the test could be used to reject candidates at high risk of failing at least 1 year at first attempt. However, the 'number needed to reject' value would be high (at 1.18), with roughly one candidate who would have been likely to pass all years at first sitting being rejected for every higher risk candidate potentially declined entry on this basis. The UKCAT scores demonstrate a statistically significant but modest degree of incremental predictive validity throughout undergraduate training. Whilst the UKCAT could be considered a fairly crude screening tool for future academic performance, it may offer added value when used in conjunction with other selection measures. Future work should focus on the optimum role of such tests within the selection process and the prediction of post-graduate performance.

Ability among adolescents for the metabolic syndrome to predict elevations in factors associated with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease: data from the national health and nutrition examination survey 1999-2006.

PubMed

DeBoer, Mark D; Gurka, Matthew J

2010-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare currently proposed sets of pediatric metabolic syndrome criteria for the ability to predict elevations in "surrogate" factors that are associated with metabolic syndrome and with future cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. These surrogate factors were fasting insulin, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and uric acid. Waist circumference (WC), blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), fasting glucose, fasting insulin, HbA1c, hsCRP, and uric acid measurements were obtained from 2,624 adolescent (12-18 years old) participants of the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. We identified children with metabolic syndrome as defined by six commonly used sets of pediatric metabolic syndrome criteria. We then defined elevations in the surrogate factors as values in the top 5% for the cohort and calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for each set of metabolic syndrome criteria and for each surrogate factor. Current pediatric metabolic syndrome criteria exhibited variable sensitivity and specificity for surrogate predictions. Metabolic syndrome criteria had the highest sensitivity for predicting fasting insulin (40-70%), followed by uric acid (31-54%), hsCRP (13-31%), and HbA1c (7-21%). The criteria of de Ferranti (which includes children with WC >75(th) percentile, compared to all other sets including children with WC >90(th) percentile) exhibited the highest sensitivity for predicting each of the surrogates, with only modest decrease in specificity compared to the other sets of criteria. However, the de Ferranti criteria also exhibited the lowest PPV values. Conversely, the pediatric International Diabetes Federation criteria exhibited the lowest sensitivity and the highest specificity. Pediatric metabolic syndrome criteria exhibit moderate sensitivity for detecting elevations in surrogate factors associated with metabolic syndrome and with risk for future disease. Inclusion of children with more modestly elevated WC improved sensitivity.

Evaluating predictive modeling’s potential to improve teleretinal screening participation in urban safety net clinics

PubMed Central

Ogunyemi, Omolola; Teklehaimanot, Senait; Patty, Lauren; Moran, Erin; George, Sheba

2013-01-01

Introduction Screening guidelines for diabetic patients recommend yearly eye examinations to detect diabetic retinopathy and other forms of diabetic eye disease. However, annual screening rates for retinopathy in US urban safety net settings remain low. Methods Using data gathered from a study of teleretinal screening in six urban safety net clinics, we assessed whether predictive modeling could be of value in identifying patients at risk of developing retinopathy. We developed and examined the accuracy of two predictive modeling approaches for diabetic retinopathy in a sample of 513 diabetic individuals, using routinely available clinical variables from retrospective medical record reviews. Bayesian networks and radial basis function (neural) networks were learned using ten-fold cross-validation. Results The predictive models were modestly predictive with the best model having an AUC of 0.71. Discussion Using routinely available clinical variables to predict patients at risk of developing retinopathy and to target them for annual eye screenings may be of some usefulness to safety net clinics. PMID:23920536

Evaluating predictive modeling's potential to improve teleretinal screening participation in urban safety net clinics.

PubMed

Ogunyemi, Omolola; Teklehaimanot, Senait; Patty, Lauren; Moran, Erin; George, Sheba

2013-01-01

Screening guidelines for diabetic patients recommend yearly eye examinations to detect diabetic retinopathy and other forms of diabetic eye disease. However, annual screening rates for retinopathy in US urban safety net settings remain low. Using data gathered from a study of teleretinal screening in six urban safety net clinics, we assessed whether predictive modeling could be of value in identifying patients at risk of developing retinopathy. We developed and examined the accuracy of two predictive modeling approaches for diabetic retinopathy in a sample of 513 diabetic individuals, using routinely available clinical variables from retrospective medical record reviews. Bayesian networks and radial basis function (neural) networks were learned using ten-fold cross-validation. The predictive models were modestly predictive with the best model having an AUC of 0.71. Using routinely available clinical variables to predict patients at risk of developing retinopathy and to target them for annual eye screenings may be of some usefulness to safety net clinics.

Interpreting Disruption Prediction Models to Improve Plasma Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Matthew

2017-10-01

In order for the tokamak to be a feasible design for a fusion reactor, it is necessary to minimize damage to the machine caused by plasma disruptions. Accurately predicting disruptions is a critical capability for triggering any mitigative actions, and a modest amount of attention has been given to efforts that employ machine learning techniques to make these predictions. By monitoring diagnostic signals during a discharge, such predictive models look for signs that the plasma is about to disrupt. Typically these predictive models are interpreted simply to give a `yes' or `no' response as to whether a disruption is approaching. However, it is possible to extract further information from these models to indicate which input signals are more strongly correlated with the plasma approaching a disruption. If highly accurate predictive models can be developed, this information could be used in plasma control schemes to make better decisions about disruption avoidance. This work was supported by a Grant from the 2016-2017 Fulbright U.S. Student Program, administered by the Franco-American Fulbright Commission in France.

Predicting 30-Day Hospital Readmissions in Acute Myocardial Infarction: The AMI "READMITS" (Renal Function, Elevated Brain Natriuretic Peptide, Age, Diabetes Mellitus, Nonmale Sex, Intervention with Timely Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, and Low Systolic Blood Pressure) Score.

PubMed

Nguyen, Oanh Kieu; Makam, Anil N; Clark, Christopher; Zhang, Song; Das, Sandeep R; Halm, Ethan A

2018-04-17

Readmissions after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are common. However, the few currently available AMI readmission risk prediction models have poor-to-modest predictive ability and are not readily actionable in real time. We sought to develop an actionable and accurate AMI readmission risk prediction model to identify high-risk patients as early as possible during hospitalization. We used electronic health record data from consecutive AMI hospitalizations from 6 hospitals in north Texas from 2009 to 2010 to derive and validate models predicting all-cause nonelective 30-day readmissions, using stepwise backward selection and 5-fold cross-validation. Of 826 patients hospitalized with AMI, 13% had a 30-day readmission. The first-day AMI model (the AMI "READMITS" score) included 7 predictors: renal function, elevated brain natriuretic peptide, age, diabetes mellitus, nonmale sex, intervention with timely percutaneous coronary intervention, and low systolic blood pressure, had an optimism-corrected C-statistic of 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.74) and was well calibrated. The full-stay AMI model, which included 3 additional predictors (use of intravenous diuretics, anemia on discharge, and discharge to postacute care), had an optimism-corrected C-statistic of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.76) with minimally improved net reclassification and calibration. Both AMI models outperformed corresponding multicondition readmission models. The parsimonious AMI READMITS score enables early prospective identification of high-risk AMI patients for targeted readmissions reduction interventions within the first 24 hours of hospitalization. A full-stay AMI readmission model only modestly outperformed the AMI READMITS score in terms of discrimination, but surprisingly did not meaningfully improve reclassification. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Solar power satellite system sizing tradeoffs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arndt, G. D.; Monford, L. G.

1981-01-01

Technical and economic tradeoffs of smaller solar power satellite systems configured with larger antennas, reduced output power, and smaller rectennas, are considered. The differential costs in electricity for seven antenna/rectenna configurations operating at 2.45 GHz and five satellite systems operating at 5.8 GHz are calculated. Two 2.45 GHz configurations dependent upon the ionospheric power density limit are chosen as examples. If the ionospheric limit could be increased to 54 mW sq/cm from the present 23 mW sq/cm level, a 1.53 km antenna satellite operating at 2.45 GHz would provide 5.05 GW of output power from a 6.8 km diameter rectenna. This system gives a 54 percent reduction in rectenna area relative to the reference solar power satellite system at a modest 17 percent increase in electricity costs. At 5.8 GHz, an 0.75 km antenna providing 2.72 GW of power from a 5.8 km diameter rectenna is selected for analysis. This configuration would have a 67 percent reduction in rectenna area at a 36 percent increase in electricity costs. Ionospheric, atmospheric, and thermal limitations are discussed. Antenna patterns for three configurations to show the relative main beam and sidelobe characteristics are included.

Prospective, population-based study of the transition from major depressive disorder to bipolar disorder

PubMed Central

Gilman, Stephen E.; Dupuy, Jamie M.; Perlis, Roy H.

2013-01-01

Objective It is currently not possible to determine which individuals with unipolar depression are at highest risk for a manic episode. This study investigates clinical and psychosocial risk factors for mania among individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD), indicating diagnostic conversion from MDD to bipolar I disorder. Methods We fitted logistic regression models to predict the first onset of a manic episode among 6,214 cases of lifetime MDD according to DSM-IV criteria in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Results Approximately 1 in 20 individuals with MDD transitioned to bipolar disorder during the study's 3-year follow-up period. Demographic risk factors for the transition from MDD to bipolar disorder included younger age, Black race/ethnicity, and less than high school education. Clinical characteristics of depression (e.g., age at first onset, presence of atypical features) were not associated with diagnostic conversion. However, prior psychopathology was associated with the transition to bipolar disorder: history of social phobia (Odds Ratio=2.20; 95% Confidence Interval=1.47, 3.30) and generalized anxiety disorder (OR=1.58; CI=1.06, 2.35). Lastly, we identified environmental stressors over the life course that predicted the transition to bipolar disorder: these include a history of child abuse (OR=1.26; CI=1.12, 1.42) and past-year problems with one's social support group (OR=1.79; CI=1.19, 2.68). The overall predictive power of these risk factors based on a receiver operating curve analysis is modest. Conclusions A wide range of demographic, clinical, and environmental risk factors were identified that indicate a heightened risk for the transition to bipolar disorder. Additional work is needed to further enhance the prediction of bipolar disorder among cases of MDD, and to determine whether interventions targeting these factors could reduce the risk of bipolar disorder. PMID:22394428

An ultra low-power CMOS automatic action potential detector.

PubMed

Gosselin, Benoit; Sawan, Mohamad

2009-08-01

We present a low-power complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) analog integrated biopotential detector intended for neural recording in wireless multichannel implants. The proposed detector can achieve accurate automatic discrimination of action potential (APs) from the background activity by means of an energy-based preprocessor and a linear delay element. This strategy improves detected waveforms integrity and prompts for better performance in neural prostheses. The delay element is implemented with a low-power continuous-time filter using a ninth-order equiripple allpass transfer function. All circuit building blocks use subthreshold OTAs employing dedicated circuit techniques for achieving ultra low-power and high dynamic range. The proposed circuit function in the submicrowatt range as the implemented CMOS 0.18- microm chip dissipates 780 nW, and it features a size of 0.07 mm(2). So it is suitable for massive integration in a multichannel device with modest overhead. The fabricated detector succeeds to automatically detect APs from underlying background activity. Testbench validation results obtained with synthetic neural waveforms are presented.

Goals of thermionic program for space power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, R. E.

1981-01-01

The thermionic and Brayton reactor concepts were compared for application to space power. For a turbine inlet temperature of 15000 K the Brayton powerplant weighted 5 to 40% less than the thermionic concept. The out of core concept separates the thermionic converters from their reactor. Technical risks are diminished by: (1) moving the insolator out of the reactor; (2) allowing a higher thermal flux for the thermionic converters than is required of the reactor fuel; and (3) eliminating fuel swelling's threat against lifetime of the thermionic converters. Overall performance can be improved by including power processing in system optimization for design and technology on more efficient, higher temperature power processors. The thermionic reactors will be larger than those for competitive systems with higher conversion efficiency and lower reactor operating temperatures. It is concluded that although the effect of reactor size on shield weight will be modest for unmanned spacecraft, the penalty in shield weight will be large for manned or man-tended spacecraft.

Tube furnace

DOEpatents

Foster, Kenneth G.; Frohwein, Eugene J.; Taylor, Robert W.; Bowen, David W.

1991-01-01

A vermiculite insulated tube furnace is heated by a helically-wound resistance wire positioned within a helical groove on the surface of a ceramic cylinder, that in turn is surroundingly disposed about a doubly slotted stainless steel cylindrical liner. For uniform heating, the pitch of the helix is of shorter length over the two end portions of the ceramic cylinder. The furnace is of large volume, provides uniform temperature, offers an extremely precise programmed heating capability, features very rapid cool-down, and has a modest electrical power requirement.

Demonstration of a high repetition rate capillary discharge waveguide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gonsalves, A. J., E-mail: ajgonsalves@lbl.gov; Pieronek, C.; Daniels, J.

2016-01-21

A hydrogen-filled capillary discharge waveguide operating at kHz repetition rates is presented for parameters relevant to laser plasma acceleration (LPA). The discharge current pulse was optimized for erosion mitigation with laser guiding experiments and MHD simulation. Heat flow simulations and measurements showed modest temperature rise at the capillary wall due to the average heat load at kHz repetition rates with water-cooled capillaries, which is promising for applications of LPAs such as high average power radiation sources.

Admission temperatures following radiant warmer or incubator transport for preterm infants <28 weeks: a randomised study.

PubMed

Meyer, Michael P; Bold, Geoff T

2007-07-01

Sixty two infants <28 weeks were occlusively wrapped and randomised to radiant warmer or incubator transport to the neonatal unit. Median axillary temperature on arrival was 36.8 degrees C in both groups. Target temperatures (36.5-37.5 degrees C) were achieved in 60% of the incubator group compared to 75% in the warmer group (not statistically significant). While powered to detect a 35% difference between warming devices, a more modest difference is not excluded.

Iran and the Big Powers, 1900-1953.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-04-26

projects- all in return for a modest royalty and initial fee . The threat from both Britain and Russia forced Iran to develop a foreign policy for its...ignored Russian interests in keeping Iran under political and economic bondage through bank loans and trade with Iran. By posing a direct threat to...34.-".-",."..".. . . - . . .. .., ,--.".... 14 Russia 28,972,124 rubles in long-term debt and 3,223,810 in short-term debts . This was against a mere 2,000,000 ruble

Effects of short-term modest weight loss on fasting and post-prandial lipoprotein sub-fractions in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

PubMed

Ybarra, J; James, R W; Makoundou, V; Bioletto, S; Golay, A

2001-12-01

We assessed the efficacy of a modest weight loss (1.5 +/- 0.3 kg) and simultaneous rapid improvement in glycemic control on fasting an post-prandial lipoprotein sub-fractions in nine overweight (BMI=28 +/- 1.7 kg/m(2)) well controlled Type 2 diabetic patients (HbA(1c)=7.3 +/- 0.1%). They followed a non-drastical hypocaloric balanced diet (1 561 +/- 39 kcal/day) over ten days in hospital. The fat content of the diet was significantly lowered from 96 +/- 12 g/day to 62 +/- 4 g/day (p<0.03). Plasma lipid and lipoprotein levels were measured in fasting and four hours after standard breakfast and four hours after standard lunch twice before and after ten days of hospitalization. The sub-fractions of very low density and low density lipoprotein were obtained by cumulative flotation ultracentrifugation. This weight loss reduced two well known independent cardiovascular risk factors such as the post-prandial glycemic excursions (p<0.05) and the post-prandial lipemia (p<0.05). Multiple linear regression analyses identified weight loss as an independent variable accounting for the ability to predict post-prandial capillary triglyceride clearance (p<0.05). Improvements in post-prandial glycemic excursions which was also entered as a parameter did not appear as a variable being able to predict these changes (p=0.4). In addition to the 23% improvement in post-prandial capillary triglyceride clearance (p<0.02), a decrement in post-prandial VLDL-2 triglyceride enrichment was found (p<0.05). Finally, fasting and post-prandial LDL-3 cholesterol levels were diminished (p<0.05) and the LDL-2/LDL-3 mass ratio post-prandial kinetics were improved (p<0.05). Even a modest weight loss in overweight, average controlled type 2 diabetic patients can achieve a significant improvement in two cardiovascular risk factors, namely post-prandial triglyceride excursions and the LDL-2/LDL-3 mass ratio kinetics independently from glycemic control improvements.

The impact of suicidal rock music lyrics on youth: an investigation of individual differences.

PubMed

Peterson, Rebecca J; Safer, Martin A; Jobes, David A

2008-01-01

This study attempted to predict reactions after listening to music with lyrics about suicide. One hundred and twenty-six volunteers completed self-reports of personality and mood, and then listened to the music. Afterwards, they completed projective stories, self-reports of moods and reactions, and a memory test for the lyrics. Low openness to experience, and to a lesser extent, high neuroticism and low self-esteem predicted higher levels of suicide-related content in projective story-writing, as did knowing a suicide victim. Both the personality measures and post-listening mood predicted remembering too many nihilistic lyrics. Surprisingly, 68% of participants wrote at least one projective story with altruistic content. Individual differences were modestly associated with suicidal thoughts after listening to the music.

Nonrandom Acts of Kindness: Parasympathetic and Subjective Empathic Responses to Sadness Predict Children’s Prosociality

PubMed Central

Miller, Jonas G.; Nuselovici, Jacob N.; Hastings, Paul D.

2016-01-01

How does empathic physiology unfold as a dynamic process, and which aspect of empathy predicts children’s kindness? In response to empathy induction videos, 4–6 year-old children (N = 180) showed an average pattern of dynamic respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) change characterized by early RSA suppression followed by RSA recovery, and modest subsequent suppression during positive resolution of the empathic event. Children’s capacity for this pattern of flexible RSA change was associated with their subjective empathic feelings, which were concurrently associated with more sympathetic and prosocial responses to others. Conversely, only children’s dynamic RSA change longitudinally predicted prosocial behavior two years later. These findings have implications for understanding the dynamic and multifaceted nature of empathy, and its relation with prosocial development. PMID:28262932

Efficiency in SETI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shostak, Seth

2011-02-01

While modern SETI experiments are often highly sensitive, reaching detection limits of 10 -25 W/m 2 Hz in the radio, interstellar distances imply that if extraterrestrial societies are using isotropic or broad-beamed transmitters, the power requirements for their emissions are enormous. Indeed, isotropic transmissions to the entire Galaxy, sufficiently intense to be detectable by our current searches, would consume power comparable to the stellar insolation of an Earth-size planet. In this paper we consider how knowledge can be traded for power, and how, and to what degree, astronomical accuracy can reduce the energy costs of a comprehensive transmission program by putative extraterrestrials. Indeed, an exploration of how far this trade-off might be taken suggests that extraterrestrial transmitting strategies of civilizations only modestly more advanced than our own would be, as are our SETI receiving experiments, inexpensive enough to allow multiple efforts. We explore the consequences this supposition has for our SETI listening experiments.

A neuropsychological investigation of multitasking in HIV infection: implications for everyday functioning.

PubMed

Scott, J Cobb; Woods, Steven Paul; Vigil, Ofilio; Heaton, Robert K; Schweinsburg, Brian C; Ellis, Ronald J; Grant, Igor; Marcotte, Thomas D

2011-07-01

A subset of individuals with HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment experience related deficits in "real world" functioning (i.e., independently performing instrumental activities of daily living [IADL]). While performance-based tests of everyday functioning are reasonably sensitive to HIV-associated IADL declines, questions remain regarding the extent to which these tests' highly structured nature fully captures the inherent complexities of daily life. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive and ecological validity of a novel multitasking measure in HIV infection. Participants included 60 individuals with HIV infection (HIV+) and 25 demographically comparable seronegative adults (HIV-). Participants were administered a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, questionnaires assessing mood and everyday functioning, and a novel standardized test of multitasking, which involved balancing the demands of four interconnected performance-based functional tasks (i.e., financial management, cooking, medication management, and telephone communication). HIV+ individuals demonstrated significantly worse overall performance, fewer simultaneous task attempts, and increased errors on the multitasking test as compared to the HIV- group. Within the HIV+ sample, multitasking impairments were modestly associated with deficits on standard neuropsychological measures of executive functions, episodic memory, attention/working memory, and information processing speed, providing preliminary evidence for convergent validity. More importantly, multivariate prediction models revealed that multitasking deficits were uniquely predictive of IADL dependence beyond the effects of depression and global neurocognitive impairment, with excellent sensitivity (86%), but modest specificity (57%). Taken together, these data indicate that multitasking ability may play an important role in successful everyday functioning in HIV+ individuals. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

A Neuropsychological Investigation of Multitasking in HIV Infection: Implications for Everyday Functioning

PubMed Central

Scott, J. Cobb; Woods, Steven Paul; Vigil, Ofilio; Heaton, Robert K.; Schweinsburg, Brian C.; Ellis, Ronald J.; Grant, Igor; Marcotte, Thomas D.

2010-01-01

Objective A subset of individuals with HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment experience related deficits in “real world” functioning (i.e., independently performing instrumental activities of daily living [IADL]). While performance-based tests of everyday functioning are reasonably sensitive to HIV-associated IADL declines, questions remain regarding the extent to which these tests’ highly structured nature fully captures the inherent complexities of daily life. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive and ecological validity of a novel multitasking measure in HIV infection. Method Participants included 60 individuals with HIV infection (HIV+) and 25 demographically comparable seronegative adults (HIV−). Participants were administered a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, questionnaires assessing mood and everyday functioning, and a novel standardized test of multitasking, which involved balancing the demands of four interconnected performance-based functional tasks (i.e., financial management, cooking, medication management, and telephone communication). Results HIV+ individuals demonstrated significantly worse overall performance, fewer simultaneous task attempts, and increased errors on the multitasking test as compared to the HIV− sample. Within the HIV+ sample, multitasking impairments were modestly associated with deficits on standard neuropsychological measures of executive functions, episodic memory, attention/working memory, and information processing speed, providing preliminary evidence for convergent validity. More importantly, multivariate prediction models revealed that multitasking deficits were uniquely predictive of IADL dependence beyond the effects of depression and global neurocognitive impairment, with excellent sensitivity (86%), but modest specificity (57%). Conclusions Taken together, these data indicate that multitasking ability may play an important role in successful everyday functioning in HIV+ individuals. PMID:21401259

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF INTEGRATED MALARIA TRANSMISSION CONTROL ON ENTOMOLOGIC INOCULATION RATE IN HIGHLY ENDEMIC AREAS

PubMed Central

KILLEEN, GERRY F.; McKENZIE, F. ELLIS; FOY, BRIAN D.; SCHIEFFELIN, CATHERINE; BILLINGSLEY, PETER F.; BEIER, JOHN C.

2008-01-01

We have used a relatively simple but accurate model for predicting the impact of integrated transmission control on the malaria entomologic inoculation rate (EIR) at four endemic sites from across sub-Saharan Africa and the southwest Pacific. The simulated campaign incorporated modestly effective vaccine coverage, bed net use, and larval control. The results indicate that such campaigns would reduce EIRs at all four sites by 30- to 50-fold. Even without the vaccine, 15- to 25-fold reductions of EIR were predicted, implying that integrated control with a few modestly effective tools can meaningfully reduce malaria transmission in a range of endemic settings. The model accurately predicts the effects of bed nets and indoor spraying and demonstrates that they are the most effective tools available for reducing EIR. However, the impact of domestic adult vector control is amplified by measures for reducing the rate of emergence of vectors or the level of infectiousness of the human reservoir. We conclude that available tools, including currently neglected methods for larval control, can reduce malaria transmission intensity enough to alleviate mortality. Integrated control programs should be implemented to the fullest extent possible, even in areas of intense transmission, using simple models as decision-making tools. However, we also conclude that to eliminate malaria in many areas of intense transmission is beyond the scope of methods which developing nations can currently afford. New, cost-effective, practical tools are needed if malaria is ever to be eliminated from highly endemic areas. PMID:11289662

Validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Wu, X. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, and the surface vibration was used as input to the BEM to predict the sound intensity and sound power. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis. Noise predicted by the BEM was validated by sound intensity measurements. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: (1) sound power predicted by the BEM modeling using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; (2) sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and (3) sound power measured by a sound intensity scan. The sound power predicted from the BEM model using measured vibration data yields an excellent prediction of radiated noise. The sound power predicted by the combined FEM/BEM model also gives a good prediction of radiated noise except for a shift of the natural frequencies that are due to limitations in the FEM model.

ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.

2017-09-01

Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA)more » models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.« less

Tests of Transport Theory and Reduced Impurity Influx with Highly Radiative Plasmas in TFTR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, K. W.

1997-11-01

The electron and ion temperature profiles in beam-heated plasmas were observed to be remarkably invariant when radiative losses were increased significantly through gas puffing of high-Z impurities (argon, krypton, xenon) in the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor. Without impurity puffing, radiative losses accounted for typically only ~ 25\\char'45 of the input power and the radiation profile was strongly peaked at the plasma edge, where the dominant carbon impurity was not fully stripped. At central electron temperatures, T_eo, of ~ 6 keV, trace concentrations of krypton and xenon (n_z/ne ~ 10-3) generated flat and centrally peaked radiation profiles respectively, and a significant fraction of the input power (45-100\\char'45 ) was lost through radiation. This loss provided a nearly ideal technique for studying local heat transport in tokamaks because it perturbed the net heating profile strongly and in a measureable way, with little effect on the density and the beam deposition profiles. In supershot plasmas, Ti >> T_e, the ion temperature profile remained constant, or even increased modestly, as the radiated power fraction was increased to 75-90\\char'45 with krypton and xenon. This observation is surprising because ion-electron coupling is the dominant power loss term for the ions in the core of supershot plasmas, and the central Ti would have decreased a factor of two if the local ion thermal diffusivity had remained constant at its value without impurity puffing. In L-mode plasmas where ion-electron power coupling is a smaller term in the power balance, the electron temperature during impurity puffing also changed only ~ 10-15\\char'45 even as the net power flow through the electrons was decreased by a factor of ~ 3. The ``stiffness" of the temperature profiles to net input power is supportive of transport mechanisms which have a marginal-stability character. Preliminary comparisons of the temperature changes with predictions of the IFS/PPPL transport model,(M. Kotschenreuther, W. Dorland, M. A. Beer, and G. W. Hammett, Phys. Plasmas 2, 2381 (1995)) which has strong marginal-stability behavior, are reasonable; more detailed comparisons are in progress. Use of high-Z radiators did not impair fusion performance, confirming they can be used to reduce the heat flux to the plasma facing components with minimal ion dilution. At input power level s of 30-33 MW, enhanced radiation through krypton and xenon puffing eliminated serious carbon influx (carbon ``blooms") which occurred in comparable plasmas without impurity puffing.

The Design, Construction, and Experimental Evaluation of a Compact Thermoacoustic-Stirling Engine Generator for Use in a micro-CHP Appliance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, Douglas A., Jr.

Micro combined heat and power or micro-CHP is the simultaneous generation of useful heat and electricity on a residential scale. The heat and electricity are produced at the point of use, avoiding the distribution losses associated with a centralized power plant. These appliances combine a conventional gas-fired condensing boiler with an electric power module capable of generating electricity from the heat of combustion. Currently, the leading power modules for micro-CHP appliances are free-piston Stirling engines (FPSEs) which can generate 1050 watts of electricity at a thermal-to-electric efficiency of 26%.[1] These external combustion engines have been under development for the last 25 years, with FPSE micro-CHP appliances only recently being introduced to the commercial market. Publications by developers assert unlimited service life and high efficiency, with low noise and emissions; but despite these claims, the actual reliability and cost of manufacturing has prevented their successful mass-market adoption. A Thermoacoustic-Stirling Engine Generator or TaSEG is one possible alternative to FPSE's. A TaSEG uses a thermoacoustic engine, or acoustic heat engine, which can efficiently convert high temperature heat into acoustic power while maintaining a simple design with fewer moving parts than traditional FPSE's. This simpler engine is coupled to an electrodynamic alternator capable of converting acoustic power into electricity. This thesis outlines the design, construction, and experimental evaluation of a TaSEG which is appropriate for integration with a gas burner inside of a residential micro- CHP appliance. The design methodology is discussed, focusing on how changes in the geometry affected the predicted performance. Details of its construction are given and the performance of the TaSEG is then outlined. The TaSEG can deliver 132 watts of electrical output power to an electric load with an overall measured thermal-to-electric (first law) efficiency of eta T-E=8.32%, corresponding to 14% of Carnot etac. The volumetric power density of this TaSEG is 8.9 kW/m3. While the demonstrated overall efficiency is modest (for reasons that are largely understood), this TaSEG has moved the technology away from laboratory prototypes toward a commercially viable power module having a design configuration suitable for implementation in a micro-CHP appliance. Based on the TaSEG's measured experimental performance results, recommendations for future work that might improve the overall efficiency of the TaSEG are also presented.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang-Ming; Yang, Shi-Feng; Pan, San-Bo

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization. PMID:28912803

A blue-LED-based device for selective photocoagulation of superficial abrasions: theoretical modeling and in vivo validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Francesca; Pini, Roberto; De Siena, Gaetano; Massi, Daniela; Pavone, Francesco S.; Alfieri, Domenico; Cannarozzo, Giovanni

2010-02-01

The blue light (~400 nm) emitted by high power Light Emitting Diodes (LED) is selectively absorbed by the haemoglobin content of blood and then converted into heat. This is the basic concept in setting up a compact, low-cost, and easy-to-handle photohaemostasis device for the treatment of superficial skin abrasions. Its main application is in reducing bleeding from superficial capillary vessels during laser induced aesthetic treatments, such as skin resurfacing, thus reducing the treatment time and improving aesthetic results (reduction of scar formation). In this work we firstly present the preliminary modeling study: a Finite Element Model (FEM) of the LED induced photothermal process was set up, in order to estimate the optimal wavelength and treatment time, by studying the temperature dynamics in the tissue. Then, a compact, handheld illumination device has been designed: commercially available high power LEDs emitting in the blue region were mounted in a suitable and ergonomic case. The prototype was tested in the treatment of dorsal excoriations in rats. Thermal effects were monitored by an infrared thermocamera, experimentally evidencing the modest and confined heating effects and confirming the modeling predictions. Objective observations and histopathological analysis performed in a follow-up study showed no adverse reactions and no thermal damage in the treated areas and surrounding tissues. The device was then used in human patients, in order to stop bleeding during Erbium laser skin resurfacing procedure. By inducing LED-based photocoagulation, the overall treatment time was shortened and scar formation was reduced, thus enhancing esthetic effect of the laser procedure.

Liquid lithium loop system to solve challenging technology issues for fusion power plant

DOE PAGES

Ono, Masayuki; Majeski, Richard P.; Jaworski, Michael A.; ...

2017-07-12

Here, steady-state fusion power plant designs present major divertor technology challenges, including high divertor heat flux both in steady-state and during transients. In addition to these concerns, there are the unresolved technology issues of long term dust accumulation and associated tritium inventory and safety issues. It has been suggested that radiation-based liquid lithium (LL) divertor concepts with a modest lithium-loop could provide a possible solution for these outstanding fusion reactor technology issues, while potentially improving reactor plasma performance. The application of lithium (Li) in NSTX resulted in improved H-mode confinement, H-mode power threshold reduction, and reduction in the divertor peakmore » heat flux while maintaining essentially Li-free core plasma operation even during H-modes. These promising results in NSTX and related modeling calculations motivated the radiative liquid lithium divertor (RLLD) concept and its variant, the active liquid lithium divertor concept (ARLLD), taking advantage of the enhanced or non-coronal Li radiation in relatively poorly confined divertor plasmas. To maintain the LL purity in a 1 GW-electric class fusion power plant, a closed LL loop system with a modest circulating capacity of ~ 1 liter/second (l/sec) is envisioned. We examined two key technology issues: 1) dust or solid particle removal and 2) real time recovery of tritium from LL while keeping the tritium inventory level to an acceptable level. By running the LL-loop continuously, it can carry the dust particles and impurities generated in the vacuum vessel to the outside where the dust / impurities can be removed by relatively simple dust filter, cold trap and/or centrifugal separation systems. With ~ 1 l/sec LL flow, even a small 0.1% dust content by weight (or 0.5 g per sec) suggests that the LL-loop could carry away nearly 16 tons of dust per year. In a 1 GW-electric (or ~ 3 GW fusion power) fusion power plant, about 0.5 g / sec of tritium is needed to maintain the fusion fuel cycle assuming ~ 1 % fusion burn efficiency. It appears feasible to recover tritium (T) in real time from LL while maintaining an acceptable T inventory level. Laboratory tests are being conducted to investigate T recovery feasibility with the surface cold trap (SCT) concept.« less

Liquid lithium loop system to solve challenging technology issues for fusion power plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ono, Masayuki; Majeski, Richard P.; Jaworski, Michael A.

Here, steady-state fusion power plant designs present major divertor technology challenges, including high divertor heat flux both in steady-state and during transients. In addition to these concerns, there are the unresolved technology issues of long term dust accumulation and associated tritium inventory and safety issues. It has been suggested that radiation-based liquid lithium (LL) divertor concepts with a modest lithium-loop could provide a possible solution for these outstanding fusion reactor technology issues, while potentially improving reactor plasma performance. The application of lithium (Li) in NSTX resulted in improved H-mode confinement, H-mode power threshold reduction, and reduction in the divertor peakmore » heat flux while maintaining essentially Li-free core plasma operation even during H-modes. These promising results in NSTX and related modeling calculations motivated the radiative liquid lithium divertor (RLLD) concept and its variant, the active liquid lithium divertor concept (ARLLD), taking advantage of the enhanced or non-coronal Li radiation in relatively poorly confined divertor plasmas. To maintain the LL purity in a 1 GW-electric class fusion power plant, a closed LL loop system with a modest circulating capacity of ~ 1 liter/second (l/sec) is envisioned. We examined two key technology issues: 1) dust or solid particle removal and 2) real time recovery of tritium from LL while keeping the tritium inventory level to an acceptable level. By running the LL-loop continuously, it can carry the dust particles and impurities generated in the vacuum vessel to the outside where the dust / impurities can be removed by relatively simple dust filter, cold trap and/or centrifugal separation systems. With ~ 1 l/sec LL flow, even a small 0.1% dust content by weight (or 0.5 g per sec) suggests that the LL-loop could carry away nearly 16 tons of dust per year. In a 1 GW-electric (or ~ 3 GW fusion power) fusion power plant, about 0.5 g / sec of tritium is needed to maintain the fusion fuel cycle assuming ~ 1 % fusion burn efficiency. It appears feasible to recover tritium (T) in real time from LL while maintaining an acceptable T inventory level. Laboratory tests are being conducted to investigate T recovery feasibility with the surface cold trap (SCT) concept.« less

Liquid lithium loop system to solve challenging technology issues for fusion power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, M.; Majeski, R.; Jaworski, M. A.; Hirooka, Y.; Kaita, R.; Gray, T. K.; Maingi, R.; Skinner, C. H.; Christenson, M.; Ruzic, D. N.

2017-11-01

Steady-state fusion power plant designs present major divertor technology challenges, including high divertor heat flux both in steady-state and during transients. In addition to these concerns, there are the unresolved technology issues of long term dust accumulation and associated tritium inventory and safety issues. It has been suggested that radiation-based liquid lithium (LL) divertor concepts with a modest lithium-loop could provide a possible solution for these outstanding fusion reactor technology issues, while potentially improving reactor plasma performance. The application of lithium (Li) in NSTX resulted in improved H-mode confinement, H-mode power threshold reduction, and reduction in the divertor peak heat flux while maintaining essentially Li-free core plasma operation even during H-modes. These promising results in NSTX and related modeling calculations motivated the radiative liquid lithium divertor concept and its variant, the active liquid lithium divertor concept, taking advantage of the enhanced or non-coronal Li radiation in relatively poorly confined divertor plasmas. To maintain the LL purity in a 1 GW-electric class fusion power plant, a closed LL loop system with a modest circulating capacity of ~1 l s-1 is envisioned. We examined two key technology issues: (1) dust or solid particle removal and (2) real time recovery of tritium from LL while keeping the tritium inventory level to an acceptable level. By running the LL-loop continuously, it can carry the dust particles and impurities generated in the vacuum vessel to the outside where the dust/impurities can be removed by relatively simple dust filter, cold trap and/or centrifugal separation systems. With ~1 l s-1 LL flow, even a small 0.1% dust content by weight (or 0.5 g s-1) suggests that the LL-loop could carry away nearly 16 tons of dust per year. In a 1 GW-electric (or ~3 GW fusion power) fusion power plant, about 0.5 g s-1 of tritium is needed to maintain the fusion fuel cycle assuming ~1% fusion burn efficiency. It appears feasible to recover tritium (T) in real time from LL while maintaining an acceptable T inventory level. Laboratory tests are being conducted to investigate T recovery feasibility with the surface cold trap concept.

Lurking systematics in predicting galaxy cold gas masses using dust luminosities and star formation rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janowiecki, Steven; Cortese, Luca; Catinella, Barbara; Goodwin, Adelle J.

2018-05-01

We use galaxies from the Herschel Reference Survey to evaluate commonly used indirect predictors of cold gas masses. We calibrate predictions for cold neutral atomic and molecular gas using infrared dust emission and gas depletion time methods that are self-consistent and have ˜20 per cent accuracy (with the highest accuracy in the prediction of total cold gas mass). However, modest systematic residual dependences are found in all calibrations that depend on the partition between molecular and atomic gas, and can over/underpredict gas masses by up to 0.3 dex. As expected, dust-based estimates are best at predicting the total gas mass while depletion time-based estimates are only able to predict the (star-forming) molecular gas mass. Additionally, we advise caution when applying these predictions to high-z galaxies, as significant (0.5 dex or more) errors can arise when incorrect assumptions are made about the dominant gas phase. Any scaling relations derived using predicted gas masses may be more closely related to the calibrations used than to the actual galaxies observed.

A comparison of prognostic significance of strong ion gap (SIG) with other acid-base markers in the critically ill: a cohort study.

PubMed

Ho, Kwok M; Lan, Norris S H; Williams, Teresa A; Harahsheh, Yusra; Chapman, Andrew R; Dobb, Geoffrey J; Magder, Sheldon

2016-01-01

This cohort study compared the prognostic significance of strong ion gap (SIG) with other acid-base markers in the critically ill. The relationships between SIG, lactate, anion gap (AG), anion gap albumin-corrected (AG-corrected), base excess or strong ion difference-effective (SIDe), all obtained within the first hour of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and the hospital mortality of 6878 patients were analysed. The prognostic significance of each acid-base marker, both alone and in combination with the Admission Mortality Prediction Model (MPM0 III) predicted mortality, were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the 6878 patients included in the study, 924 patients (13.4 %) died after ICU admission. Except for plasma chloride concentrations, all acid-base markers were significantly different between the survivors and non-survivors. SIG (with lactate: AUROC 0.631, confidence interval [CI] 0.611-0.652; without lactate: AUROC 0.521, 95 % CI 0.500-0.542) only had a modest ability to predict hospital mortality, and this was no better than using lactate concentration alone (AUROC 0.701, 95 % 0.682-0.721). Adding AG-corrected or SIG to a combination of lactate and MPM0 III predicted risks also did not substantially improve the latter's ability to differentiate between survivors and non-survivors. Arterial lactate concentrations explained about 11 % of the variability in the observed mortality, and it was more important than SIG (0.6 %) and SIDe (0.9 %) in predicting hospital mortality after adjusting for MPM0 III predicted risks. Lactate remained as the strongest predictor for mortality in a sensitivity multivariate analysis, allowing for non-linearity of all acid-base markers. The prognostic significance of SIG was modest and inferior to arterial lactate concentration for the critically ill. Lactate concentration should always be considered regardless whether physiological, base excess or physical-chemical approach is used to interpret acid-base disturbances in critically ill patients.

Does Racial Isolation in School Lead to Long-Term Disadvantages? Labor Market Consequences of High School Racial Composition.

PubMed

Gamoran, Adam; Barfels, Sarah; Collares, Ana Cristina

2016-01-01

School racial composition has modest effects on test score gaps, but evidence of a longer-term impact is scarce. Perpetuation theory suggests that blacks who attend schools with higher proportions of white classmates may have better job outcomes. Multilevel analyses of two national longitudinal surveys reveal no effects of high school racial composition on occupational status, employment, or annual earnings for blacks or whites. For other minority groups, attending schools with more whites impedes occupational advancement. For all groups, however, school racial composition predicts workplace racial composition: Whites who attend high schools with higher proportions of white students have higher proportions of white coworkers, while nonwhites who attend schools with higher proportions of whites have fewer same-race coworkers. The findings are modest in size but robust to alternative specifications, and sensitivity analyses support a causal interpretation for same-race coworkers. These results support perpetuation theory for workplace composition but not for stratification outcomes.

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Ketamine has distinct electrophysiological and behavioral effects in depressed and healthy subjects.

PubMed

Nugent, Allison C; Ballard, Elizabeth D; Gould, Todd D; Park, Lawrence T; Moaddel, Ruin; Brutsche, Nancy E; Zarate, Carlos A

2018-02-27

Ketamine's mechanism of action was assessed using gamma power from magnetoencephalography (MEG) as a proxy measure for homeostatic balance in 35 unmedicated subjects with major depressive disorder (MDD) and 25 healthy controls enrolled in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized cross-over trial of 0.5 mg/kg ketamine. MDD subjects showed significant improvements in depressive symptoms, and healthy control subjects exhibited modest but significant increases in depressive symptoms for up to 1 day after ketamine administration. Both groups showed increased resting gamma power following ketamine. In MDD subjects, gamma power was not associated with the magnitude of the antidepressant effect. However, baseline gamma power was found to moderate the relationship between post-ketamine gamma power and antidepressant response; specifically, higher post-ketamine gamma power was associated with better response in MDD subjects with lower baseline gamma, with an inverted relationship in MDD subjects with higher baseline gamma. This relationship was observed in multiple regions involved in networks hypothesized to be involved in the pathophysiology of MDD. This finding suggests biological subtypes based on the direction of homeostatic dysregulation and has important implications for inferring ketamine's mechanism of action from studies of healthy controls alone.

Selenide isotope generator for the Galileo mission. SIG/Galileo contract compliance power prediction technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammel, T.E.; Srinivas, V.

1978-11-01

This initial definition of the power degradation prediction technique outlines a model for predicting SIG/Galileo mean EOM power using component test data and data from a module power degradation demonstration test program. (LCL)

Direct and Conceptual Replications of Burgmer & Englich (2012): Power May Have Little to No Effect on Motor Performance

PubMed Central

Gottschalk, Christopher; Calin-Jageman, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Burgmer and Englich (2012) have reported that manipulating feelings of power can substantially improve performance on two motor tasks: golf and darts. We conducted two high-powered direct replications of the effects of power on golf, two online conceptual replications using mirror-tracing as a performance measure, and an additional conceptual replication using a cognitive performance measure (word-search). Overall, we found little to no effect of power on motor skill (d = 0.09, 95% CI[-0.07, 0.22], n = 603). We varied task difficulty, re-analyzed data without participants showing weak responses on manipulation checks, and tried adjusting performance scores for age, gender, and initial task skill. None of these secondary analyses revealed a strong effect of power on performance. A meta-analysis integrating our data with Burgmer & Englich leaves open the possibility that manipulating power could provide a modest boost in motor skill (d = 0.19, 95% CI [0.001, 0.38], n = 685). Unfortunately, the pattern of performance changes we observed was unrelated to group differences in perceived and rated power, suggesting that what motor effects do occur with this protocol may not be directly related to the construct of power. [Burgmer, P., &Englich, B. (2012). Bullseye!: How Power Improves Motor Performance. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 4(2), 224–232.] PMID:26536592

Predicting Sensitivity of Breast Tumors to Src-targeted Therapies Through Assessment of Cas/Src/BCAR3 Activity

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

expression is elevated in DCIS samples compared to normal mammary tissue, invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) compared to normal mammary tissue, and DCIS... compared to IDC. (2) BCAR3 is significantly upregulated in triple negative breast cancer and normal tissue; (3) BCAR3 expression shows a modest...expression was seen to be elevated in DCIS samples compared to normal mammary tissue, invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) compared to normal mammary tissue, and

Economics of Pharmacogenetic-Guided Treatments: Underwhelming or Overstated?

PubMed

Hughes, Dyfrig A

2018-05-01

Economic evaluations have dispelled a perception that precision medicine, achieved through pharmacogenetic testing, reduces healthcare costs. For many tests aimed at preventing adverse drug reactions, cost-effectiveness analyses predict modest improvements in health benefits and increases in total costs. While there are many uncertainties in estimating the value of testing, factors that influence cost-effectiveness include the rarity of the outcome, the effectiveness of alternative treatments, and the scope and perspective of analysis. © 2018 ASCPT.

Westerlund 1 is a Galactic Treasure Chest: The Wolf-Rayet Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosslowe, C. K.; Crowther, P. A.

2015-01-01

The Westerlund 1 Galactic cluster hosts an eclectic mix of coeval massive stars. At a modest distance of 4-5 kpc, it offers a unique opportunity to study the resolved stellar content of a young (~5 Myr) high mass (5.104 M ⊙) star cluster. With the aim of testing single-star evolutionary predictions, and revealing any signatures of binary evolution, we discuss on-going analyses of NTT/SOFI near-IR spectroscopy of Wolf-Rayet stars in Westerlund 1. We find that late WN stars are H-poor compared to their counterparts in the Milky Way field, and nearly all are less luminous than predicted by single-star Geneva isochrones at the age of Westerlund 1.

Council tax valuation bands and contacts with a GP out-of-hours service.

PubMed

Beale, Norman; Taylor, Gordon; Gwynne, Mark; Peart, Carole

2006-04-01

UK GPs are no longer responsible for the organisation of out-of-hours care for their patients, but resources remains capitation-based. This cross-sectional study tests whether council tax valuation bands can predict the demand for such services. All out-of-hours contacts made by patients in North Wiltshire over 4 months were classified by council tax band; frequencies compared with official population statistics. Council tax band predicts out-of-hours GP workload irrespective of age and sex: the more modest the home, the higher the GP contact rate. It may prove more difficult to sustain out-of-hours services in deprived parts of the UK.

U.S. aerospace industry opinion of the effect of computer-aided prediction-design technology on future wind-tunnel test requirements for aircraft development programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treon, S. L.

1979-01-01

A survey of the U.S. aerospace industry in late 1977 suggests that there will be an increasing use of computer-aided prediction-design technology (CPD Tech) in the aircraft development process but that, overall, only a modest reduction in wind-tunnel test requirements from the current level is expected in the period through 1995. Opinions were received from key spokesmen in 23 of the 26 solicited major companies or corporate divisions involved in the design and manufacture of nonrotary wing aircraft. Development programs for nine types of aircraft related to test phases and wind-tunnel size and speed range were considered.

Direct-to-consumer genetic testing for addiction susceptibility: a premature commercialisation of doubtful validity and value.

PubMed

Mathews, Rebecca; Hall, Wayne; Carter, Adrian

2012-12-01

Genetic research on addiction liability and pharmacogenetic research on treatments for addiction have identified some genetic variants associated with disease risk and treatment. Genetic testing for addiction liability and treatment response has not been used widely in clinical practice because most of the genes identified only modestly predict addiction risk or treatment response. However, many of these genetic tests have been commercialized prematurely and are available direct to the consumer (DTC). The easy availability of DTC tests for addiction liability and lack of regulation over their use raises a number of ethical concerns. Of paramount concern is the limited predictive power and clinical utility of these tests. Many DTC testing companies do not provide the consumer with the necessary genetic counselling to assist them in interpreting and acting on their test results. They may also engage in misleading marketing to entice consumers to purchase their products. Consumers' genetic information may be vulnerable to misuse by third parties, as there are limited standards to protect the privacy of the genetic information. Non-consensual testing and inappropriate testing of minors may also occur. The United States Food and Drug Administration plans to regulate DTC genetic tests. Based on the ethical concerns we discuss below, we believe there is a strong case for regulation of DTC genetic tests for addiction liability and treatment response. We argue that until this occurs, these tests have more potential to cause harm than to contribute to improved prevention and treatment of addiction. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

24 CFR 891.670 - Cost containment and modest design standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Cost containment and modest design... Handicapped Families and Individuals-Section 162 Assistance § 891.670 Cost containment and modest design standards. (a) Restrictions on amenities. Projects must be modest in design. Except as provided in paragraph...

24 CFR 891.670 - Cost containment and modest design standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Cost containment and modest design... Handicapped Families and Individuals-Section 162 Assistance § 891.670 Cost containment and modest design standards. (a) Restrictions on amenities. Projects must be modest in design. Except as provided in paragraph...

24 CFR 891.670 - Cost containment and modest design standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Cost containment and modest design... Handicapped Families and Individuals-Section 162 Assistance § 891.670 Cost containment and modest design standards. (a) Restrictions on amenities. Projects must be modest in design. Except as provided in paragraph...

24 CFR 891.670 - Cost containment and modest design standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Cost containment and modest design... Handicapped Families and Individuals-Section 162 Assistance § 891.670 Cost containment and modest design standards. (a) Restrictions on amenities. Projects must be modest in design. Except as provided in paragraph...

24 CFR 891.670 - Cost containment and modest design standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Cost containment and modest design... Handicapped Families and Individuals-Section 162 Assistance § 891.670 Cost containment and modest design standards. (a) Restrictions on amenities. Projects must be modest in design. Except as provided in paragraph...

Power load prediction based on GM (1,1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Di

2017-05-01

Currently, Chinese power load prediction is highly focused; the paper deeply studies grey prediction and applies it to Chinese electricity consumption during the recent 14 years; through after-test test, it obtains grey prediction which has good adaptability to medium and long-term power load.

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

1985-01-01

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Molecular simulation of the thermophysical properties and phase behaviour of impure CO2 relevant to CCS.

PubMed

Cresswell, Alexander J; Wheatley, Richard J; Wilkinson, Richard D; Graham, Richard S

2016-10-20

Impurities from the CCS chain can greatly influence the physical properties of CO 2 . This has important design, safety and cost implications for the compression, transport and storage of CO 2 . There is an urgent need to understand and predict the properties of impure CO 2 to assist with CCS implementation. However, CCS presents demanding modelling requirements. A suitable model must both accurately and robustly predict CO 2 phase behaviour over a wide range of temperatures and pressures, and maintain that predictive power for CO 2 mixtures with numerous, mutually interacting chemical species. A promising technique to address this task is molecular simulation. It offers a molecular approach, with foundations in firmly established physical principles, along with the potential to predict the wide range of physical properties required for CCS. The quality of predictions from molecular simulation depends on accurate force-fields to describe the interactions between CO 2 and other molecules. Unfortunately, there is currently no universally applicable method to obtain force-fields suitable for molecular simulation. In this paper we present two methods of obtaining force-fields: the first being semi-empirical and the second using ab initio quantum-chemical calculations. In the first approach we optimise the impurity force-field against measurements of the phase and pressure-volume behaviour of CO 2 binary mixtures with N 2 , O 2 , Ar and H 2 . A gradient-free optimiser allows us to use the simulation itself as the underlying model. This leads to accurate and robust predictions under conditions relevant to CCS. In the second approach we use quantum-chemical calculations to produce ab initio evaluations of the interactions between CO 2 and relevant impurities, taking N 2 as an exemplar. We use a modest number of these calculations to train a machine-learning algorithm, known as a Gaussian process, to describe these data. The resulting model is then able to accurately predict a much broader set of ab initio force-field calculations at comparatively low numerical cost. Although our method is not yet ready to be implemented in a molecular simulation, we outline the necessary steps here. Such simulations have the potential to deliver first-principles simulation of the thermodynamic properties of impure CO 2 , without fitting to experimental data.

Modeling Above-Ground Biomass Across Multiple Circum-Arctic Tundra Sites Using High Spatial Resolution Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räsänen, Aleksi; Juutinen, Sari; Aurela, Mika; Virtanen, Tarmo

2017-04-01

Biomass is one of the central bio-geophysical variables in Earth observation for tracking plant productivity, and flow of carbon, nutrients, and water. Most of the satellite based biomass mapping exercises in Arctic environments have been performed by using rather coarse spatial resolution data, e.g. Landsat and AVHRR which have spatial resolutions of 30 m and >1 km, respectively. While the coarse resolution images have high temporal resolution, they are incapable of capturing the fragmented nature of tundra environment and fine-scale changes in vegetation and carbon exchange patterns. Very high spatial resolution (VHSR, spatial resolution 0.5-2 m) satellite images have the potential to detect environmental variables with an ecologically sound spatial resolution. The usage of VHSR images has, nevertheless, been modest so far in biomass modeling in the Arctic. Our objectives were to use VHSR for predicting above ground biomass in tundra landscapes, evaluate whether a common predictive model can be applied across circum-Arctic tundra and peatland sites having different types of vegetation, and produce knowledge on distribution of plant functional types (PFT) in these sites. Such model development is dependent on ground-based surveys of vegetation with the same spatial resolution and extent with the VHSR images. In this study, we conducted ground-based surveys of vegetation composition and biomass in four different arctic tundra or peatland areas located in Russia, Canada, and Finland. First, we sorted species into PFTs and developed PFT-specific models to predict biomass on the basis of non-destructive measurements (cover, height). Second, we predicted overall biomass on landscape scale by combinations of single bands and vegetation indices of very high resolution satellite images (QuickBird or WorldView-2 images of the eight sites). We compared area-specific empirical regression models and common models that were applied across all sites. We found that NDVI was usually the highest scoring spectral indices in explaining biomass distribution with good explanatory power. Furthermore, models which had more than one explanatory variable had higher explanatory power than models with a single index. The dissimilarity between common and site-specific model estimates was, however, high and data indicates that variation in vegetation properties and its impact on spectral reflectance needs to be acknowledged. Our work produced knowledge on above-ground biomass distribution and contribution of PFTs across circum-Arctic low-growth landscapes and will contribute to developing space-borne vegetation monitoring schemes utilizing VHSR satellite images.

Predicting High-Power Performance in Professional Cyclists.

PubMed

Sanders, Dajo; Heijboer, Mathieu; Akubat, Ibrahim; Meijer, Kenneth; Hesselink, Matthijs K

2017-03-01

To assess if short-duration (5 to ~300 s) high-power performance can accurately be predicted using the anaerobic power reserve (APR) model in professional cyclists. Data from 4 professional cyclists from a World Tour cycling team were used. Using the maximal aerobic power, sprint peak power output, and an exponential constant describing the decrement in power over time, a power-duration relationship was established for each participant. To test the predictive accuracy of the model, several all-out field trials of different durations were performed by each cyclist. The power output achieved during the all-out trials was compared with the predicted power output by the APR model. The power output predicted by the model showed very large to nearly perfect correlations to the actual power output obtained during the all-out trials for each cyclist (r = .88 ± .21, .92 ± .17, .95 ± .13, and .97 ± .09). Power output during the all-out trials remained within an average of 6.6% (53 W) of the predicted power output by the model. This preliminary pilot study presents 4 case studies on the applicability of the APR model in professional cyclists using a field-based approach. The decrement in all-out performance during high-intensity exercise seems to conform to a general relationship with a single exponential-decay model describing the decrement in power vs increasing duration. These results are in line with previous studies using the APR model to predict performance during brief all-out trials. Future research should evaluate the APR model with a larger sample size of elite cyclists.

Ruthenium Oxide Electrochemical Super Capacitor Optimization for Pulse Power Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merryman, Stephen A.; Chen, Zheng

2000-01-01

Electrical actuator systems are being pursued as alternatives to hydraulic systems to reduce maintenance time, weight and costs while increasing reliability. Additionally, safety and environmental hazards associated with the hydraulic fluids can be eliminated. For most actuation systems, the actuation process is typically pulsed with high peak power requirements but with relatively modest average power levels. The power-time requirements for electrical actuators are characteristic of pulsed power technologies where the source can be sized for the average power levels while providing the capability to achieve the peak requirements. Among the options for the power source are battery systems, capacitor systems or battery-capacitor hybrid systems. Battery technologies are energy dense but deficient in power density; capacitor technologies are power dense but limited by energy density. The battery-capacitor hybrid system uses the battery to supply the average power and the capacitor to meet the peak demands. It has been demonstrated in previous work that the hybrid electrical power source can potentially provide a weight savings of approximately 59% over a battery-only source. Electrochemical capacitors have many properties that make them well-suited for electrical actuator applications. They have the highest demonstrated energy density for capacitive storage (up to 100 J/g), have power densities much greater than most battery technologies (greater than 30kW/kg), are capable of greater than one million charge-discharge cycles, can be charged at extremely high rates, and have non-explosive failure modes. Thus, electrochemical capacitors exhibit a combination of desirable battery and capacitor characteristics.

A High Performance H2-Cl2 Fuel Cell for Space Power Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Everett B.; Taylor, E. Jennings; Wilemski, Gerald; Gelb, Alan

1993-01-01

NASA has numerous airborne/spaceborne applications for which high power and energy density power sources are needed. The proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is an attractive candidate for such a power source. PEMFC's offer many advantages for airborne/spaceborne applications. They have high power and energy densities, convert fuel to electrical power with high efficiency at both part and full load, and can rapidly startup and shutdown. In addition, PEMFC's are lightweight and operate silently. A significant impediment to the attainment of very high power and energy densities by PEMFC's is their current exclusive reliance on oxygen as the oxidant. Conventional PEMFC's oxidize hydrogen at the anode and reduce oxygen at the cathode. The electrode kinetics of oxygen reduction are known to be highly irreversible, incurring large overpotential losses. In addition, the modest open circuit potential of 1.2V for the H2-O2 fuel cell is unattainable due to mixed potential effects at the oxygen electrode. Because of the high overpotential losses, cells using H2 and O2 are capable of achieving high current densities only at very low cell voltages, greatly curtailing their power output. Based on experimental work on chlorine reduction in a gas diffusion electrode, we believe significant increases in both the energy and power densities of PEMFC systems can be achieved by employing chlorine as an alternative oxidant.

Prediction of the Chapman-Jouguet chemical equilibrium state in a detonation wave from first principles based reactive molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Guo, Dezhou; Zybin, Sergey V; An, Qi; Goddard, William A; Huang, Fenglei

2016-01-21

The combustion or detonation of reacting materials at high temperature and pressure can be characterized by the Chapman-Jouguet (CJ) state that describes the chemical equilibrium of the products at the end of the reaction zone of the detonation wave for sustained detonation. This provides the critical properties and product kinetics for input to macroscale continuum simulations of energetic materials. We propose the ReaxFF Reactive Dynamics to CJ point protocol (Rx2CJ) for predicting the CJ state parameters, providing the means to predict the performance of new materials prior to synthesis and characterization, allowing the simulation based design to be done in silico. Our Rx2CJ method is based on atomistic reactive molecular dynamics (RMD) using the QM-derived ReaxFF force field. We validate this method here by predicting the CJ point and detonation products for three typical energetic materials. We find good agreement between the predicted and experimental detonation velocities, indicating that this method can reliably predict the CJ state using modest levels of computation.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, Mark; Wootton, J. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Emmerson, Mark; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Timothy

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (∼25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melin, Alexander M.; Olama, Mohammed M.; Dong, Jin

The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed tomore » estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our lab.« less

Predictors of long-term weight loss in adults with modest initial weight loss, by sex and race.

PubMed

Svetkey, Laura P; Ard, Jamy D; Stevens, Victor J; Loria, Catherine M; Young, Deb Y; Hollis, Jack F; Appel, Lawrence J; Brantley, Phillip J; Kennedy, Betty M; Kumanyika, Shiriki K; Batch, Bryan C; Corsino, Leonor; Lien, Lillian F; Vollmer, William M

2012-09-01

Effective weight management interventions could reduce race-sex disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet little is known about factors associated with successful weight loss maintenance in race-sex subgroups. In the Weight Loss Maintenance trial (WLM), overweight/obese (BMI 25-45 kg/m(2)) adults who lost ≥4 kg in a 6-month behavioral weight loss intervention (phase I) were randomized into one of three 30-month maintenance interventions (phase II). To investigate predictors in subgroups, randomized groups were combined for this analysis. Of 1,685 phase I participants, 1,032 (61%) entered phase II, including 12% black men (BM), 26% black women (BW), 25% white men (WM), and 37% white women (WW). Weight change over the 36-month study ranged from -2.3% (95% confidence interval = -3.1 to -1.5%) in BW to -4.5% (95% confidence interval = -5.7 to -4.0%) in WM, the result of differential weight loss during phase I. Within race, men lost significantly more weight than women, but within sex group, weight loss did not differ significantly between races. Although participants regained weight during phase II, regain did not differ by race-sex group, and mean weight at the end of the study was significantly lower than phase I entry weight for each subgroup. In regression models, phase I weight loss predicted overall 36-month weight loss in all race-sex groups. Healthy dietary pattern at entry, improvement in dietary pattern, or both were predictive in three of four race-sex groups. Few other variables other than initial weight loss and dietary pattern were predictive. Future research should identify additional modifiable influences on long-term maintenance after a modest weight loss.

Using Clinical Factors and Mammographic Breast Density to Estimate Breast Cancer Risk: Development and Validation of a New Predictive Model

PubMed Central

Tice, Jeffrey A.; Cummings, Steven R.; Smith-Bindman, Rebecca; Ichikawa, Laura; Barlow, William E.; Kerlikowske, Karla

2009-01-01

Background Current models for assessing breast cancer risk are complex and do not include breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer that is routinely reported with mammography. Objective To develop and validate an easy-to-use breast cancer risk prediction model that includes breast density. Design Empirical model based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence, and relative hazards from a prospective cohort. Setting Screening mammography sites participating in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Patients 1 095 484 women undergoing mammography who had no previous diagnosis of breast cancer. Measurements Self-reported age, race or ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy. Community radiologists rated breast density by using 4 Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories. Results During 5.3 years of follow-up, invasive breast cancer was diagnosed in 14 766 women. The breast density model was well calibrated overall (expected–observed ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.06]) and in racial and ethnic subgroups. It had modest discriminatory accuracy (concordance index, 0.66 [CI, 0.65 to 0.67]). Women with low-density mammograms had 5-year risks less than 1.67% unless they had a family history of breast cancer and were older than age 65 years. Limitation The model has only modest ability to discriminate between women who will develop breast cancer and those who will not. Conclusion A breast cancer prediction model that incorporates routinely reported measures of breast density can estimate 5-year risk for invasive breast cancer. Its accuracy needs to be further evaluated in independent populations before it can be recommended for clinical use. PMID:18316752

End-Tidal Carbon Dioxide Measurement during Pediatric Polysomnography: Signal Quality, Association with Apnea Severity, and Prediction of Neurobehavioral Outcomes.

PubMed

Paruthi, Shalini; Rosen, Carol L; Wang, Rui; Weng, Jia; Marcus, Carole L; Chervin, Ronald D; Stanley, Jeffrey J; Katz, Eliot S; Amin, Raouf; Redline, Susan

2015-11-01

To identify the role of end-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) monitoring during polysomnography in evaluation of children with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS), including the correlation of EtCO2 with other measures of OSAS and prediction of changes in cognition and behavior after adenotonsillectomy. Analysis of screening and endpoint data from the Childhood Adenotonsillectomy Trial, a randomized, controlled, multicenter study comparing early adenotonsillectomy (eAT) to watchful waiting/supportive care (WWSC) in children with OSAS. Multisite clinical referral settings. Children, ages 5.0 to 9.9 y with suspected sleep apnea. eAT or WWSC. Quality EtCO2 waveforms were present for ≥ 75% of total sleep time (TST) in 876 of 960 (91.3%) screening polysomnograms. Among the 322 children who were randomized, 55 (17%) met pediatric criteria for hypoventilation. The mean TST with EtCO2 > 50 mmHg was modestly correlated with apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) (r = 0.33; P < 0.0001) and with oxygen saturation ≤ 92% (r = 0.26; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for AHI, obesity, and other factors, EtCO2 > 50 mmHg was higher in African American children than others. The TST with EtCO2 > 50 mmHg decreased significantly more after eAT than WWSC. In adjusted analyses, baseline TST with EtCO2 > 50 mmHg did not predict postoperative changes in cognitive and behavioral measurements. Among children with suspected obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, overnight end-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) levels are weakly to modestly correlated with other polysomnographic indices and therefore provide independent information on hypoventilation. EtCO2 levels improve with adenotonsillectomy but are not as responsive as AHI and do not provide independent prediction of cognitive or behavioral response to surgery. Childhood Adenotonsillectomy Study for Children with OSAS (CHAT). ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier #NCT00560859. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Well-Being Tracking via Smartphone-Measured Activity and Sleep: Cohort Study.

PubMed

DeMasi, Orianna; Feygin, Sidney; Dembo, Aluma; Aguilera, Adrian; Recht, Benjamin

2017-10-05

Automatically tracking mental well-being could facilitate personalization of treatments for mood disorders such as depression and bipolar disorder. Smartphones present a novel and ubiquitous opportunity to track individuals' behavior and may be useful for inferring and automatically monitoring mental well-being. The aim of this study was to assess the extent to which activity and sleep tracking with a smartphone can be used for monitoring individuals' mental well-being. A cohort of 106 individuals was recruited to install an app on their smartphone that would track their well-being with daily surveys and track their behavior with activity inferences from their phone's accelerometer data. Of the participants recruited, 53 had sufficient data to infer activity and sleep measures. For this subset of individuals, we related measures of activity and sleep to the individuals' well-being and used these measures to predict their well-being. We found that smartphone-measured approximations for daily physical activity were positively correlated with both mood (P=.004) and perceived energy level (P<.001). Sleep duration was positively correlated with mood (P=.02) but not energy. Our measure for sleep disturbance was not found to be significantly related to either mood or energy, which could imply too much noise in the measurement. Models predicting the well-being measures from the activity and sleep measures were found to be significantly better than naive baselines (P<.01), despite modest overall improvements. Measures of activity and sleep inferred from smartphone activity were strongly related to and somewhat predictive of participants' well-being. Whereas the improvement over naive models was modest, it reaffirms the importance of considering physical activity and sleep for predicting mood and for making automatic mood monitoring a reality. ©Orianna DeMasi, Sidney Feygin, Aluma Dembo, Adrian Aguilera, Benjamin Recht. Originally published in JMIR Mhealth and Uhealth (http://mhealth.jmir.org), 05.10.2017.

A Conceptual Design For A Spaceborne 3D Imaging Lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Degnan, John J.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

First generation spaceborne altimetric approaches are not well-suited to generating the few meter level horizontal resolution and decimeter accuracy vertical (range) resolution on the global scale desired by many in the Earth and planetary science communities. The present paper discusses the major technological impediments to achieving few meter transverse resolutions globally using conventional approaches and offers a feasible conceptual design which utilizes modest power kHz rate lasers, array detectors, photon-counting multi-channel timing receivers, and dual wedge optical scanners with transmitter point-ahead correction.

Compact compressive arc and beam switchyard for energy recovery linac-driven ultraviolet free electron lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akkermans, J. A. G.; Di Mitri, S.; Douglas, D.; Setija, I. D.

2017-08-01

High gain free electron lasers (FELs) driven by high repetition rate recirculating accelerators have received considerable attention in the scientific and industrial communities in recent years. Cost-performance optimization of such facilities encourages limiting machine size and complexity, and a compact machine can be realized by combining bending and bunch length compression during the last stage of recirculation, just before lasing. The impact of coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR) on electron beam quality during compression can, however, limit FEL output power. When methods to counteract CSR are implemented, appropriate beam diagnostics become critical to ensure that the target beam parameters are met before lasing, as well as to guarantee reliable, predictable performance and rapid machine setup and recovery. This article describes a beam line for bunch compression and recirculation, and beam switchyard accessing a diagnostic line for EUV lasing at 1 GeV beam energy. The footprint is modest, with 12 m compressive arc diameter and ˜20 m diagnostic line length. The design limits beam quality degradation due to CSR both in the compressor and in the switchyard. Advantages and drawbacks of two switchyard lines providing, respectively, off-line and on-line measurements are discussed. The entire design is scalable to different beam energies and charges.

New treatments for stage I testicular cancer.

PubMed

Nappi, Lucia; Nichols, Craig R; Kollmannsberger, Christian K

2017-08-01

Clinical stage I represents the most frequent presentation of both seminoma and nonseminoma testicular cancer. Despite a survival rate of close to 100%, the management of patients with this disease stage is controversial. The recurrence rate is 10% to 20% for patients with stage I seminoma and 15% to 50% for those with stage I nonseminoma. A highly sensitive and specific biomarker of relapse that is applicable to both seminoma and nonseminoma, and able to drive a definitive risk-adapted management of the patients, still is not available. Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) in the orchiectomy specimen has been used as a risk factor in patients with stage I nonseminoma. However, with a risk of recurrence of 50% for LVI-positive patients and 15% for LVI-negative patients, the discriminative power of LVI is modest at best. Various management options exist. In the absence of a predictive biomarker for recurrence, active surveillance avoids overtreatment in 50% to 85% of patients, with no risk of long-term side effects in nonrelapsing patients and a preserved overall survival of almost 100% after specific treatment for recurrent disease. However, although active surveillance has been accepted as the preferred option for stage I seminoma and low-risk stage I nonseminoma, its role in high-risk stage I nonseminoma remains controversial.

LLE Review Quarterly Report (January-March 1999). Volume 78

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Regan, Sean P.

1999-03-01

This volume of the LLE Review, covering the period January-March 1999, features two articles concerning issues relevant to 2-D SSD laser-beam smoothing on OMEGA. In the first article J. D. Zuegel and J. A. Marozas present the design of an efficient, bulk phase modulator operating at approximately 10.5 GHz, which can produce substantial phase-modulated bandwidth with modest microwave drive power. This modulator is the cornerstone of the 1-THz UV bandwidth operation planned for OMEGA this year. In the second article J. A. Marozas and J. H. Kelly describe a recently developed code -- Waasese -- that simulates the collective behaviormore » of the optical components in the SSD driver line. The measurable signatures predicted by the code greatly enhance the diagnostic capability of the SSD driver line. Other articles in this volume are titled: Hollow-Shell Implosion Studies on the 60-Beam, UC OMEGA Laser System; Simultaneous Measurements of Fuel Areal Density, Shell Areal Density, and Fuel Temperature in D 3He-Filled Imploding Capsules; The Design of Optical Pulse Shapes with an Aperture-Coupled-Stripline Pulse-Shaping System; Measurement Technique for Characterization of Rapidly Time- and Frequency-Varying Electronic Devices; and, Damage to Fused-Silica, Spatial-Filter Lenses on the OMEGA Laser System.« less

Arcus: An Overview of the Soft X-ray Grating Explorer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Randall; Arcus Collaboration

2018-01-01

The Arcus MIDEX Explorer, which NASA selected for a Phase A study in August 2017, provides high-resolution soft X-ray spectroscopy in the 12-50Å bandpass with unprecedented sensitivity. Its capabilities include spectral resolution >2500 and effective areas in the range 200-600 cm^2. The three top science goals for Arcus are (1) to measure the effects of structure formation imprinted upon the hot baryons that are predicted to lie in extended halos around galaxies, groups, and clusters, (2) to trace the propagation of outflowing mass, energy, and momentum from the vicinity of the black hole to extragalactic scales as a measure of their feedback and (3) to explore how stars, circumstellar disks and exoplanet atmospheres form and evolve. Arcus relies upon the same 12m focal length grazing-incidence silicon pore X-ray optics (SPO) that ESA has developed for the Athena mission; the focal length is achieved on orbit via an extendable optical bench. The focused X-rays from these optics are diffracted by high-efficiency Critical-Angle Transmission (CAT) gratings, and the results are imaged with flight-proven CCD detectors and electronics. The power and telemetry requirements on the spacecraft are modest and mission operations are straightforward, as most observations will be long (~100 ksec), uninterrupted, and pre-planned.

Combined Ankle-Foot Energetics are Conserved When Distal Foot Energy Absorption is Minimized.

PubMed

Arch, Elisa S; Fylstra, Bretta L

2016-12-01

The large, late-stance energy generated by the ankle is believed to be critical during gait. However, the distal foot absorbs/dissipates a considerable amount of energy during the same phase. Thus, the energy generated by the combined ankle-foot system is more modest, which raises questions regarding the necessity of such a large ankle power and the interplay between foot and ankle energetics. This study aimed to evaluate our conservation of energy hypothesis, which predicted if distal foot energy absorption/dissipation was reduced, then less energy would be generated at the ankle and thus the same combined ankle-foot energetics would be achieved. Motion analysis data were collected as healthy subjects walked under 2 conditions (Shoes, Footplate). In the Footplate condition, the shoe was replaced with a customized, rigid footplate with a rocker profile. In support of the hypothesis, there was significantly less positive ankle and less negative distal foot work with footplate use, resulting in very similar combined ankle-foot work between conditions. These findings suggest that there is an interplay between the energy generated by the ankle and absorbed by the foot. This interplay should be considered when designing orthotic and prosthetic ankle-foot systems and rehabilitation programs for individuals with weakened ankle muscles.

Evaluation of an Integrated Gas-Cooled Reactor Simulator and Brayton Turbine-Generator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hissam, David Andy; Stewart, Eric T.

2006-01-01

A closed-loop brayton cycle, powered by a fission reactor, offers an attractive option for generating both planetary and in-space electric power. Non-nuclear testing of this type of system provides the opportunity to safely work out integration and system control challenges for a modest investment. Recognizing this potential, a team at Marshall Space Flight Center has evaluated the viability of integrating and testing an existing gas-cooled reactor simulator and a modified commercially available, off-the-shelf, brayton turbine-generator. Since these two systems were developed independently of one another, this evaluation had to determine if they could operate together at acceptable power levels, temperatures, and pressures. Thermal, fluid, and structural analyses show that this combined system can operate at acceptable power levels and temperatures. In addition, pressure drops across the reactor simulator, although higher than desired, are also viewed as acceptable. Three potential working fluids for the system were evaluated: N2, He/Ar, and He/Xe. Other potential issues, such as electrical breakdown in the generator and the operation of the brayton foil bearings using various gas mixtures, were also investigated.

The light ion pulsed power induction accelerator for ETF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazarakis, M.G.; Olson, R.E.; Olson, C.L.

1994-12-31

Our Engineering Test Facility (ETF) driver concept is based on HERMES III and RHEPP technologies. Actually, it is a scaled-down version of the LMF design incorporating repetition rate capabilities of up to 10 Hz CW. The preconceptual design presented here provides 200-TW peak power to the ETF target during 10 ns, equal to 2-MJ total ion beam energy. Linear inductive voltage addition driving a self-magnetically insulated transmission line (MITL) is utilized to generate the 36-MV peak voltage needed for lithium ion beams. The {approximately} 3-MA ion current is achieved by utilizing many accelerating modules in parallel. Since the current permore » module is relatively modest ({approximately}300 kA), two-stage or one-stage extraction diodes can be utilized for the generation of singly charged lithium ions. The accelerating modules are arranged symmetrically around the fusion chamber in order to provide uniform irradiation onto the ETF target. In addition, the modules are fired in a programmed sequence in order to generate the optimum power pulse shape onto the target. This design utilizes RHEPP accelerator modules as the principal power source.« less

Evaluation of pressure and thermal data from a wind tunnel test of a large-scale, powered, STOL fighter model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, G. A.; Crosthwait, E. L.; Witte, M. C.

1981-01-01

A STOL fighter model employing the vectored-engine-over wing concept was tested at low speeds in the NASA/Ames 40 by 80-foot wind tunnel. The model, approximately 0.75 scale of an operational fighter, was powered by two General Electric J-97 turbojet engines. Limited pressure and thermal instrumentation were provided to measure power effects (chordwise and spanwise blowing) and control-surface-deflection effects. An indepth study of the pressure and temperature data revealed many flow field features - the foremost being wing and canard leading-edge vortices. These vortices delineated regions of attached and separated flow, and their movements were often keys to an understanding of flow field changes caused by power and control-surface variations. Chordwise blowing increased wing lift and caused a modest aft shift in the center of pressure. The induced effects of chordwise blowing extended forward to the canard and significantly increased the canard lift when the surface was stalled. Spanwise blowing effectively enhanced the wing leading-edge vortex, thereby increasing lift and causing a forward shift in the center of pressure.

A Practical Approach to Starting Fission Surface Power Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Lee S.

2006-01-01

The Prometheus Power and Propulsion Program has been reformulated to address NASA needs relative to lunar and Mars exploration. Emphasis has switched from the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) flight system development to more generalized technology development addressing Fission Surface Power (FSP) and Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP). Current NASA budget priorities and the deferred mission need date for nuclear systems prohibit a fully funded reactor Flight Development Program. However, a modestly funded Advanced Technology Program can and should be conducted to reduce the risk and cost of future flight systems. A potential roadmap for FSP technology development leading to possible flight applications could include three elements: 1) Conceptual Design Studies, 2) Advanced Component Technology, and 3) Non-Nuclear System Testing. The Conceptual Design Studies would expand on recent NASA and DOE analyses while increasing the depth of study in areas of greatest uncertainty such as reactor integration and human-rated shielding. The Advanced Component Technology element would address the major technology risks through development and testing of reactor fuels, structural materials, primary loop components, shielding, power conversion, heat rejection, and power management and distribution (PMAD). The Non-Nuclear System Testing would provide a modular, technology testbed to investigate and resolve system integration issues.

Reference reactor module for NASA's lunar surface fission power system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poston, David I; Kapernick, Richard J; Dixon, David D

Surface fission power systems on the Moon and Mars may provide the first US application of fission reactor technology in space since 1965. The Affordable Fission Surface Power System (AFSPS) study was completed by NASA/DOE to determine the cost of a modest performance, low-technical risk surface power system. The AFSPS concept is now being further developed within the Fission Surface Power (FSP) Project, which is a near-term technology program to demonstrate system-level TRL-6 by 2013. This paper describes the reference FSP reactor module concept, which is designed to provide a net power of 40 kWe for 8 years on themore » lunar surface; note, the system has been designed with technologies that are fully compatible with a Martian surface application. The reactor concept uses stainless-steel based. UO{sub 2}-fueled, pumped-NaK fission reactor coupled to free-piston Stirling converters. The reactor shielding approach utilizes both in-situ and launched shielding to keep the dose to astronauts much lower than the natural background radiation on the lunar surface. The ultimate goal of this work is to provide a 'workhorse' power system that NASA can utilize in near-term and future Lunar and Martian mission architectures, with the eventual capability to evolve to very high power, low mass systems, for either surface, deep space, and/or orbital missions.« less

Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) Users Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

ARL-TR-7573● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s Guide by David P Sauter...not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7573 ● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER...2016 2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 09/2015–11/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s

Predictive value of serum sST2 in preschool wheezers for development of asthma with high FeNO.

PubMed

Ketelaar, M E; van de Kant, K D; Dijk, F N; Klaassen, E M; Grotenboer, N S; Nawijn, M C; Dompeling, E; Koppelman, G H

2017-11-01

Wheezing is common in childhood. However, current prediction models of pediatric asthma have only modest accuracy. Novel biomarkers and definition of subphenotypes may improve asthma prediction. Interleukin-1-receptor-like-1 (IL1RL1 or ST2) is a well-replicated asthma gene and associates with eosinophilia. We investigated whether serum sST2 predicts asthma and asthma with elevated exhaled NO (FeNO), compared to the commonly used Asthma Prediction Index (API). Using logistic regression modeling, we found that serum sST2 levels in 2-3 years-old wheezers do not predict doctors' diagnosed asthma at age 6 years. Instead, sST2 predicts a subphenotype of asthma characterized by increased levels of FeNO, a marker for eosinophilic airway inflammation. Herein, sST2 improved the predictive value of the API (AUC=0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.84), but had also significant predictive value on its own (AUC=0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.79). Our study indicates that sST2 in preschool wheezers has predictive value for the development of eosinophilic airway inflammation in asthmatic children at school age. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Analysis and experimental evaluation of shunt active power filter for power quality improvement based on predictive direct power control.

PubMed

Aissa, Oualid; Moulahoum, Samir; Colak, Ilhami; Babes, Badreddine; Kabache, Nadir

2017-10-12

This paper discusses the use of the concept of classical and predictive direct power control for shunt active power filter function. These strategies are used to improve the active power filter performance by compensation of the reactive power and the elimination of the harmonic currents drawn by non-linear loads. A theoretical analysis followed by a simulation using MATLAB/Simulink software for the studied techniques has been established. Moreover, two test benches have been carried out using the dSPACE card 1104 for the classic and predictive DPC control to evaluate the studied methods in real time. Obtained results are presented and compared in this paper to confirm the superiority of the predictive technique. To overcome the pollution problems caused by the consumption of fossil fuels, renewable energies are the alternatives recommended to ensure green energy. In the same context, the tested predictive filter can easily be supplied by a renewable energy source that will give its impact to enhance the power quality.

Human Mars Transportation Applications Using Solar Electric Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donahue, Benjamin B.; Martin, Jim; Potter, Seth; Henley, Mark; Carrington, Connie (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Advanced solar electric power systems and electric propulsion technology constitute viable elements for conducting human Mars transfer missions that are roughly comparable in performance to similar missions utilizing alternative high thrust systems, with the one exception being their inability to achieve short Earth-Mars trip times. A modest solar electric propulsion human Mars scenario is presented that features the use of conjunction class trajectories in concert with pre-emplacement of surface assets that can be used in a series of visits to Mars. Major elements of the Mars solar electric transfer vehicle can be direct derivatives of present state-of-the-art Solar array and electric thruster systems. During the study, several elements affecting system performance were evaluated, including varying Earth orbit altitude for departure, recapturing the transfer stage at Earth for reuse, varying power system mass-to-power ratio, and assessing solar array degradation on performance induced by Van Allen belt passage. Comparisons are made to chemical propulsion and nuclear thermal propulsion Mars vehicles carrying similar payloads.

Hydro-Quebec is at it again

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamilton, G.

1993-12-31

When New York governor Mario Cuomo pulled the plug on a purchase of 1,000 megawatts of power from Hydro-Quebec last June, the provincial utility talked tough. The cancellation, a senior Hydro-Quebec official claimed, would not jeopardize the future of its controversial Great Whale hydro project in the North. Bu Hydro-Quebec has quietly shoved Great Whale onto the back burner while an environmental review is underway. In the meantime the utility is barreling ahead with another mega-dam. The Ste. Marquerite project planned for north-eastern Quebec is modest by Hydro-Quebec standards, generating less than a third the power of Great Whale. Still,more » with an 880-megawatt power station and 190 square miles of reservoirs, it is one of the largest hydro projects on any drawing board in North America. Environmentalists say it is being pushed ahead without a serious study of its impacts. This article details the environmental impacts of the project, and the extended impacts, not yet accounted for.« less

Experimental Results from a Resonant Dielectric Laser Accelerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoder, Rodney; McNeur, Joshua; Sozer, Esin; Travish, Gil; Hazra, Kiran Shankar; Matthews, Brian; England, Joel; Peralta, Edgar; Wu, Ziran

2015-04-01

Laser-powered accelerators have the potential to operate with very large accelerating gradients (~ GV/m) and represent a path toward extremely compact colliders and accelerator technology. Optical-scale laser-powered devices based on field-shaping structures (known as dielectric laser accelerators, or DLAs) have been described and demonstrated recently. Here we report on the first experimental results from the Micro-Accelerator Platform (MAP), a DLA based on a slab-symmetric resonant optical-scale structure. As a resonant (rather than near-field) device, the MAP is distinct from other DLAs. Its cavity resonance enhances its accelerating field relative to the incoming laser fields, which are coupled efficiently through a diffractive optic on the upper face of the device. The MAP demonstrated modest accelerating gradients in recent experiments, in which it was powered by a Ti:Sapphire laser well below its breakdown limit. More detailed results and some implications for future developments will be discussed. Supported in part by the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (UCLA); U.S. Dept of Energy (SLAC); and DARPA (SLAC).

Verification and optimization of the CFETR baseline scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, D.; Lao, L. L.; Meneghini, O.; Staebler, G. M.; Candy, J.; Smith, S. P.; Snyder, P. B.; Prater, R.; Chen, X.; Chan, V. S.; Li, J.; Chen, J.; Shi, N.; Guo, W.; Pan, C.; Jian, X.

2016-10-01

The baseline scenario of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) was designed starting from 0D calculations. The CFETR baseline scenario satisfies the minimum goal of Fusion Nuclear Science Facility aimed at bridging the gaps between ITER and DEMO. 1.5D calculations are presented to verify the on-going efforts in higher-dimensional modeling of CFETR. Steady-state scenarios are calculated self-consistently by the OMFIT integrated modeling framework that includes EFIT for equilibrium, ONETWO for sources and current, TGYRO for transport. With 68MW of neutral beam power and 8MW of ECH injected to the plasma, the average ion temperature is maintained at 15keV, while 150MW fusion power is produced. The neutral beams also drive 55% of the plasma current. Modest fast ion diffusion will reduce NBCD and affect the profile substantially. Top-launch ECH will increase the current drive and the power absorption rate. EPED model are being included. Work supported by U.S. DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698 and the USTC CFETR contract.

Assessing Bleeding Risk in Patients Taking Anticoagulants

PubMed Central

Shoeb, Marwa; Fang, Margaret C.

2013-01-01

Anticoagulant medications are commonly used for the prevention and treatment of thromboembolism. Although highly effective, they are also associated with significant bleeding risks. Numerous individual clinical factors have been linked to an increased risk of hemorrhage, including older age, anemia, and renal disease. To help quantify hemorrhage risk for individual patients, a number of clinical risk prediction tools have been developed. These risk prediction tools differ in how they were derived and how they identify and weight individual risk factors. At present, their ability to effective predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhage remains modest. Use of risk prediction tools to estimate bleeding in clinical practice is most influential when applied to patients at the lower spectrum of thromboembolic risk, when the risk of hemorrhage will more strongly affect clinical decisions about anticoagulation. Using risk tools may also help counsel and inform patients about their potential risk for hemorrhage while on anticoagulants, and can identify patients who might benefit from more careful management of anticoagulation. PMID:23479259

Quantitation of Staphylococcus aureus in Seawater Using CHROMagar™ SA

PubMed Central

Pombo, David; Hui, Jennifer; Kurano, Michelle; Bankowski, Matthew J; Seifried, Steven E

2010-01-01

A microbiological algorithm has been developed to analyze beach water samples for the determination of viable colony forming units (CFU) of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). Membrane filtration enumeration of S. aureus from recreational beach waters using the chromogenic media CHROMagar™SA alone yields a positive predictive value (PPV) of 70%. Presumptive CHROMagar™SA colonies were confirmed as S. aureus by 24-hour tube coagulase test. Combined, these two tests yield a PPV of 100%. This algorithm enables accurate quantitation of S. aureus in seawater in 72 hours and could support risk-prediction processes for recreational waters. A more rapid protocol, utilizing a 4-hour tube coagulase confirmatory test, enables a 48-hour turnaround time with a modest false negative rate of less than 10%. PMID:20222490

The aerodynamic cost of flight in the short-tailed fruit bat (Carollia perspicillata): comparing theory with measurement

PubMed Central

von Busse, Rhea; Waldman, Rye M.; Swartz, Sharon M.; Voigt, Christian C.; Breuer, Kenneth S.

2014-01-01

Aerodynamic theory has long been used to predict the power required for animal flight, but widely used models contain many simplifications. It has been difficult to ascertain how closely biological reality matches model predictions, largely because of the technical challenges of accurately measuring the power expended when an animal flies. We designed a study to measure flight speed-dependent aerodynamic power directly from the kinetic energy contained in the wake of bats flying in a wind tunnel. We compared these measurements with two theoretical predictions that have been used for several decades in diverse fields of vertebrate biology and to metabolic measurements from a previous study using the same individuals. A high-accuracy displaced laser sheet stereo particle image velocimetry experimental design measured the wake velocities in the Trefftz plane behind four bats flying over a range of speeds (3–7 m s−1). We computed the aerodynamic power contained in the wake using a novel interpolation method and compared these results with the power predicted by Pennycuick's and Rayner's models. The measured aerodynamic power falls between the two theoretical predictions, demonstrating that the models effectively predict the appropriate range of flight power, but the models do not accurately predict minimum power or maximum range speeds. Mechanical efficiency—the ratio of aerodynamic power output to metabolic power input—varied from 5.9% to 9.8% for the same individuals, changing with flight speed. PMID:24718450

Differential validity of the Defense Mechanism Manual for the TAT between Asian Americans and Whites. Thematic Apperception Test.

PubMed

Hibbard, S; Tang, P C; Latko, R; Park, J H; Munn, S; Bolz, S; Somerville, A

2000-12-01

Thematic Apperception Test (Murray, 1943) responses of 69 Asian American (hereafter, Asian) and 83 White students were coded for defenses according to the Defense Mechanism Manual (Cramer, 1991b) and studied for differential validity in predicting paper-and-pencil measures of relevant constructs. Three tests for differential validity were used: (a) differences between validity coefficients, (b) interactions between predictor and ethnicity in criterion prediction, and (c) differences between groups in mean prediction errors using a common regression equation. Modest differential validity was found. It was surprising that the DMM scales were slightly stronger predictors of their criteria among Asians than among Whites and when a common predictor was used, desirable criteria were overpredicted for Asians, whereas undesirable ones were overpredicted for Whites. The results were not affected by acculturation level or English vocabulary among the Asians.

Dendritic trafficking faces physiologically critical speed-precision tradeoffs

DOE PAGES

Williams, Alex H.; O'Donnell, Cian; Sejnowski, Terrence J.; ...

2016-12-30

Nervous system function requires intracellular transport of channels, receptors, mRNAs, and other cargo throughout complex neuronal morphologies. Local signals such as synaptic input can regulate cargo trafficking, motivating the leading conceptual model of neuron-wide transport, sometimes called the ‘sushi-belt model’. Current theories and experiments are based on this model, yet its predictions are not rigorously understood. We formalized the sushi belt model mathematically, and show that it can achieve arbitrarily complex spatial distributions of cargo in reconstructed morphologies. However, the model also predicts an unavoidable, morphology dependent tradeoff between speed, precision and metabolic efficiency of cargo transport. With experimental estimatesmore » of trafficking kinetics, the model predicts delays of many hours or days for modestly accurate and efficient cargo delivery throughout a dendritic tree. In conclusion, these findings challenge current understanding of the efficacy of nucleus-to-synapse trafficking and may explain the prevalence of local biosynthesis in neurons.« less

Dendritic trafficking faces physiologically critical speed-precision tradeoffs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Alex H.; O'Donnell, Cian; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

Nervous system function requires intracellular transport of channels, receptors, mRNAs, and other cargo throughout complex neuronal morphologies. Local signals such as synaptic input can regulate cargo trafficking, motivating the leading conceptual model of neuron-wide transport, sometimes called the ‘sushi-belt model’. Current theories and experiments are based on this model, yet its predictions are not rigorously understood. We formalized the sushi belt model mathematically, and show that it can achieve arbitrarily complex spatial distributions of cargo in reconstructed morphologies. However, the model also predicts an unavoidable, morphology dependent tradeoff between speed, precision and metabolic efficiency of cargo transport. With experimental estimatesmore » of trafficking kinetics, the model predicts delays of many hours or days for modestly accurate and efficient cargo delivery throughout a dendritic tree. In conclusion, these findings challenge current understanding of the efficacy of nucleus-to-synapse trafficking and may explain the prevalence of local biosynthesis in neurons.« less

Violated expectations and acculturative stress among U.S. Hispanic immigrants.

PubMed

Negy, Charles; Schwartz, Shari; Reig-Ferrer, Abilio

2009-07-01

Expectancy violation theory (EVT) was tested with 112 Hispanic immigrants living in the United States by determining whether discrepancies between their retrospectively recalled pre-migration expectations about life in the United States and their post-migration (actual) experiences in the United States would predict their levels of acculturative stress. Discrepancies were assessed in 4 domains (ability to communicate with English speakers, perceiving their communities and the United States as safe, obtaining adequate employment, and experiencing racism). Overall, the results indicated that discrepancies between pre-migration expectations and post-migration experiences were associated significantly with acculturative stress, although some of the findings were counter to EVT. Also, on the basis of a hierarchical regression analysis, the discrepancies significantly, albeit modestly, contributed to the prediction of acculturative stress beyond the predictive ability of general demographic variables and post-migration experiences. Implications for clinical interventions and research opportunities with EVT and Hispanic immigrants are discussed.

A principle of economy predicts the functional architecture of grid cells.

PubMed

Wei, Xue-Xin; Prentice, Jason; Balasubramanian, Vijay

2015-09-03

Grid cells in the brain respond when an animal occupies a periodic lattice of 'grid fields' during navigation. Grids are organized in modules with different periodicity. We propose that the grid system implements a hierarchical code for space that economizes the number of neurons required to encode location with a given resolution across a range equal to the largest period. This theory predicts that (i) grid fields should lie on a triangular lattice, (ii) grid scales should follow a geometric progression, (iii) the ratio between adjacent grid scales should be √e for idealized neurons, and lie between 1.4 and 1.7 for realistic neurons, (iv) the scale ratio should vary modestly within and between animals. These results explain the measured grid structure in rodents. We also predict optimal organization in one and three dimensions, the number of modules, and, with added assumptions, the ratio between grid periods and field widths.

Impact of Ship Emissions on Marine Boundary Layer NO(x) and SO2 Distributions over the Pacific Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, D. D.; Grodzinsky, G.; Kasibhatla, P.; Crawford, J.; Chen, G.; Liu, S.; Bandy, A.; Thornton, D.; Guan, H.; Sandholm, S.

2001-01-01

The impact of ship emissions on marine boundary layer (MBL) NO(x) and SO2 levels over the Pacific Ocean has been explored by comparing predictions (with and without ships) from a global chemical transport model (GCTM) against compiled airborne observations of MBL NO(x) and SO2. For latitudes above 15 N, which define that part of the Pacific having the heaviest shipping, this analysis revealed significant model over prediction for NOx and a modest under prediction for SO2 when ship emissions were considered. Possible reasons for the difference in NO(x) and SO2 were explored using a full-chemistry box model. These results revealed that for an actual plume setting the NO(x) lifetime could be greatly shortened by chemical processes promoted by ship plume emissions themselves. Similar chemical behavior was not found for SO2.

Arctic tree-line reproduction in Canada and Siberia: Possible greenhouse effect?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nichols, H.

1997-12-31

The arctic tree-line is sensitive to climatic changes as indicated by paleo-ecological studies, and it is predicted to respond strongly to global warming. Northern Canadian studies of tree-line reproduction spanning two decades demonstrate a widespread switch from infertility due to cold summers (early 1970`s) to pollen and cone production (1990s), in line with greenhouse warming predictions. Ecotonal cone formation is usually sporadic and localized, but this largescale reproductive shift, along a 1500 km transect, suggests widespread climatic warming since the 1970s. These Siberian studies (at 27 sites) represented only a modest fraction of the Eurasian tree-line, but the widespread fertilitymore » at so many locations, plus the extensive Canadian evidence, suggests that the predicted polar warming may be responsible. Whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climatic change, and whether it will be short or long-term, is unclear, and merits further study.« less

Prediction of anaerobic power values from an abbreviated WAnT protocol.

PubMed

Stickley, Christopher D; Hetzler, Ronald K; Kimura, Iris F

2008-05-01

The traditional 30-second Wingate anaerobic test (WAnT) is a widely used anaerobic power assessment protocol. An abbreviated protocol has been shown to decrease the mild to severe physical discomfort often associated with the WAnT. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether a 20-second WAnT protocol could be used to accurately predict power values of a standard 30-second WAnT. In 96 college females, anaerobic power variables were assessed using a standard 30-second WAnT protocol. Maximum power values as well as instantaneous power at 10, 15, and 20 seconds were recorded. Based on these results, stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the accuracy with which mean power, minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue for a standard 30-second WAnT could be predicted from values obtained during the first 20 seconds of testing. Mean power values showed the highest level of predictability (R2 = 0.99) from the 20-second values. Minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue also showed high levels of predictability (R2 = 0.91, 0.84, and 0.84, respectively) using only values obtained during the first 20 seconds of the protocol. An abbreviated (20-second) WAnT protocol appears to effectively predict results of a standard 30-second WAnT in college-age females, allowing for comparison of data to published norms. A shortened test may allow for a decrease in unwanted side effects associated with the traditional WAnT protocol.

Pester power and its consequences: do European children's food purchasing requests relate to diet and weight outcomes?

PubMed

Huang, Christina Y; Reisch, Lucia A; Gwozdz, Wencke; Molnár, Dénes; Konstabel, Kenn; Michels, Nathalie; Tornaritis, Michalis; Eiben, Gabriele; Siani, Alfonso; Fernández-Alvira, Juan M; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Pigeot, Iris; Lissner, Lauren

2016-09-01

Children may influence household spending through 'pester power'. The present study examined pestering through parent-child food shopping behaviours in relation to children's diet and weight status. Cross-sectional and prospective analyses drawn from the IDEFICS study, a cohort study of parents and their children. Children's height and weight were measured and their recent diets were reported by parental proxy based on the Children's Eating Habits Questionnaire-FFQ at baseline and 2-year follow-up. Parents also completed questionnaires at both time points about pestering, including whether the child goes grocery shopping with them, asks for items seen on television and is bought requested food items. Participants were recruited from eight European countries for the IDEFICS study (non-nationally representative sample). Study participants were children aged 2-9 years at enrolment and their parents. A total of 13 217 parent-child dyads were included at baseline. Two years later, 7820 of the children were re-examined. Most parents (63 %) at baseline reported 'sometimes' acquiescing to their children's requests to purchase specific foods. Pestering was modestly associated with weight and diet. At baseline, children whose parents 'often' complied consumed more high-sugar and high-fat foods. Children who 'often' asked for items seen on television were likely to become overweight after 2 years (OR=1·31), whereas 'never' asking protected against overweight (OR=0·72). Pestering was modestly related to diet and weight in cross-sectional, but not longitudinal analyses. Asking for items seen on television had the most robust relationships across child outcomes and over time.

Self-phase modulation and two-photon absorption imaging of cells and active neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Martin C.; Liu, Henry; Piletic, Ivan R.; Ye, Tong; Yasuda, Ryohei; Warren, Warren S.

2007-02-01

Even though multi-photon fluorescence microscopy offers higher resolution and better penetration depth than traditional fluorescence microscopy, its use is restricted to the detection of molecules that fluoresce. Two-photon absorption (TPA) imaging can provide contrast in non-fluorescent molecules while retaining the high resolution and sectioning capabilities of nonlinear imaging modalities. In the long-wavelength water window, tissue TPA is dominated by the endogenous molecules melanin and hemoglobin with an almost complete absence of endogenous two-photon fluorescence. A complementary nonlinear contrast mechanism is self-phase modulation (SPM), which can provide intrinsic signatures that can depend on local tissue anisotropy, chemical environment, or other structural properties. We have developed a spectral hole refilling measurement technique for TPA and SPM measurements using shaped ultrafast laser pulses. Here we report on a microscopy setup to simultaneously acquire 3D, high-resolution TPA and SPM images. We have acquired data in mounted B16 melanoma cells with very modest laser power levels. We will also discuss the possible application of this measurement technique to neuronal imaging. Since SPM is sensitive to material structure we can expect SPM properties of neurons to change during neuronal firing. Using our hole-refilling technique we have now demonstrated strong novel intrinsic nonlinear signatures of neuronal activation in a hippocampal brain slice. The observed changes in nonlinear signal upon collective activation were up to factors of two, unlike other intrinsic optical signal changes on the percent level. These results show that TPA and SPM imaging can provide important novel functional contrast in tissue using very modest power levels suitable for in vivo applications.

The Detection of Diffuse Extended Structure in 3C 273: Implications for Jet Power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Punsly, Brian; Kharb, Preeti

2016-12-01

We present deep Very Large Array imaging of 3C 273 in order to determine the diffuse, large scale radio structure of this famous radio-loud quasar. Diffuse extended structure (radio lobes) is detected for the first time in these observations as a consequence of high dynamic range in the 327.5 and 1365 MHz images. This emission is used to estimate a time averaged jet power, 7.2 × 1043 erg s-1 < \\overline{Q} < 3.7 × 1044 erg s-1. Brightness temperature arguments indicate consistent values of the time variability Doppler factor and the compactness Doppler factor for the inner jet, δ ≳ 10. Thus, the large apparent broadband bolometric luminosity of the jet, ˜3 × 1046 erg s-1, corresponds to a modest intrinsic luminosity ≳1042 erg s-1, or ˜1% of \\overline{Q}. In summary, we find that 3C 273 is actually a “typical” radio-loud quasar contrary to suggestions in the literature. The modest \\overline{Q} is near the peak of the luminosity distribution for radio-loud quasars and it is consistent with the current rate of dissipation emitted from millimeter wavelengths to gamma rays. The extreme core-jet morphology is an illusion from a near pole-on line of sight to a highly relativistic jet that produces a Doppler enhanced glow that previously swamped the lobe emission. 3C 273 apparently has the intrinsic kpc scale morphology of a classical double radio source, but it is distorted by an extreme Doppler aberration.

Arterial to end-tidal carbon dioxide tension difference (CO2 gap) as a prognostic marker for adverse outcomes in emergency department patients presenting with suspected sepsis.

PubMed

Shetty, Amith; Sparenberg, Sebastian; Adams, Kristian; Selvedran, Selwyn; Tang, Benjamin; Hanna, Kim; Iredell, Jonathan

2018-05-13

The arterial to end-tidal carbon dioxide tension difference (CO 2 gap) correlates with physiologic dead space. The prognostic value of increased CO 2 gap in trauma and respiratory distress patients is documented. Transpulmonary arteriovenous shunting is identified as a predictor of mortality in non-pulmonary sepsis. We set out to investigate the prognostic value of the CO 2 gap in a pilot study of patients with suspected sepsis from non-respiratory causes. Patients presenting to tertiary Australian ED with suspected sepsis (n = 215) underwent near-simultaneous end-tidal carbon dioxide and partial pressure of carbon dioxide measurements. We investigated the correlation of CO 2 gap levels with the primary outcome of in-hospital mortality (IHM) and secondary outcomes of sepsis (ΔSOFA ≥2) and IHM and/or intensive care unit stay ≥72 h (IHM/ICU72h) in patients with sepsis because of non-respiratory causes. Among patients included in the analysis (n = 165), the CO 2 gap showed modest positive correlation with qSOFA (ρ = 0.39) and weak positive correlation with SOFA scores (ρ = 0.29) (both P < 0.01). The CO 2 gap had modest predictive value for primary outcome (IHM), area under receiver operating curve (AUROC 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.90) and IHM/ICU72h outcome (AUROC 0.80, 95% CI 0.73-0.86), but lower predictive value for sepsis outcome (AUROC 0.64, 95% CI 0.55-0.71) (all P < 0.001). We report modest test performance for primary outcome at CO 2 gap ≥5 and ≥10 mmHg cut-offs. In this pilot study of patients with suspected sepsis from non-respiratory causes, an increased CO 2 gap demonstrates value in risk stratification and needs to be further evaluated and compared to other existent biomarkers. © 2018 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine & Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

A genome-wide association study of autism using the Simons Simplex Collection: Does reducing phenotypic heterogeneity in autism increase genetic homogeneity?

PubMed

Chaste, Pauline; Klei, Lambertus; Sanders, Stephan J; Hus, Vanessa; Murtha, Michael T; Lowe, Jennifer K; Willsey, A Jeremy; Moreno-De-Luca, Daniel; Yu, Timothy W; Fombonne, Eric; Geschwind, Daniel; Grice, Dorothy E; Ledbetter, David H; Mane, Shrikant M; Martin, Donna M; Morrow, Eric M; Walsh, Christopher A; Sutcliffe, James S; Lese Martin, Christa; Beaudet, Arthur L; Lord, Catherine; State, Matthew W; Cook, Edwin H; Devlin, Bernie

2015-05-01

Phenotypic heterogeneity in autism has long been conjectured to be a major hindrance to the discovery of genetic risk factors, leading to numerous attempts to stratify children based on phenotype to increase power of discovery studies. This approach, however, is based on the hypothesis that phenotypic heterogeneity closely maps to genetic variation, which has not been tested. Our study examines the impact of subphenotyping of a well-characterized autism spectrum disorder (ASD) sample on genetic homogeneity and the ability to discover common genetic variants conferring liability to ASD. Genome-wide genotypic data of 2576 families from the Simons Simplex Collection were analyzed in the overall sample and phenotypic subgroups defined on the basis of diagnosis, IQ, and symptom profiles. We conducted a family-based association study, as well as estimating heritability and evaluating allele scores for each phenotypic subgroup. Association analyses revealed no genome-wide significant association signal. Subphenotyping did not increase power substantially. Moreover, allele scores built from the most associated single nucleotide polymorphisms, based on the odds ratio in the full sample, predicted case status in subsets of the sample equally well and heritability estimates were very similar for all subgroups. In genome-wide association analysis of the Simons Simplex Collection sample, reducing phenotypic heterogeneity had at most a modest impact on genetic homogeneity. Our results are based on a relatively small sample, one with greater homogeneity than the entire population; if they apply more broadly, they imply that analysis of subphenotypes is not a productive path forward for discovering genetic risk variants in ASD. Copyright © 2015 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Effects of Low Power Schemas in Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Rosemary S. L.

1999-01-01

Assessed whether low perceived maternal power and temperamentally fearful preschool-aged daughters predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol and internalizing symptoms in daughters 2 years later. Found that low perceived maternal power predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol with initially fearful daughters but did not predict subsequent…

Assessing the risk of imminent aggression in institutionalized youth offenders using the dynamic appraisal of situational aggression

PubMed Central

Chu, Chi Meng; Hoo, Eric; Daffern, Michael; Tan, Jolie

2012-01-01

Aggressive behavior in incarcerated youth presents a significant problem for staff, co-residents and the functioning of the institution. This study aimed to examine the predictive validity of an empirically validated measure, designed to appraise the risk of imminent aggression within institutionalized adult psychiatric patients (Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression; DASA), in adolescent male and female offenders. The supervising staff members on the residential units rated the DASA daily for 49 youth (29 males and 20 females) over two months. The results showed that DASA total scores significantly predicted institutional aggression in the following 24 and 48 hrs; however, the predictive validity of the DASA for institutional aggression was, at best, modest. Further analyses on male and female subsamples revealed that the DASA total scores only predicted imminent institutional aggression in the male subsample. Item analyses showed that negative attitudes, anger when requests are denied, and unwillingness to follow instructions predicted institutional aggression more strongly as compared with other behavioral manifestations of an irritable and unstable mental state as assessed by the DASA. PMID:25999797

Advanced components for spaceborne infrared astronomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidson, A. W.

1984-01-01

The need for improved cryogenic components to be used in future spaceborne infrared astronomy missions was identified. Improved low noise cryogenic amplifiers operated with infrared detectors, and better cryogenic actuators and motors with extremely low power dissipation are needed. The feasibility of achieving technological breakthroughs in both of these areas was studied. An improved silicon junction field effect transistor (JFET) could be developed if: (1) high purity silicon; (2) optimum dopants; and (3) very high doping levels are used. The feasibility of a simple stepper motor equipped with superconducting coils is demonstrated by construction of such a device based on a standard commercial motor. It is found that useful levels of torque at immeasurably low power levels were achieved. It is concluded that with modest development and optimization efforts, significant performance gains is possible for both cryogenic preamplifiers and superconducting motors and actuators.

Model predictive direct power control for active power decoupled single-phase quasi- Z -source inverter

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yushan; Ge, Baoming; Abu-Rub, Haitham; ...

2016-06-14

In this study, the active power filter (APF) that consists of a half-bridge leg and an ac capacitor is integrated in the single-phase quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI) in this paper to avoid the second harmonic power flowing into the dc side. The capacitor of APF buffers the second harmonic power of the load, and the ac capacitor allows highly pulsating ac voltage, so that the capacitances of both dc and ac sides can be small. A model predictive direct power control (DPC) is further proposed to achieve the purpose of this newtopology through predicting the capacitor voltage of APF at eachmore » sampling period and ensuring the APF power to track the second harmonic power of single-phase qZSI. Simulation and experimental results verify the model predictive DPC for the APF-integrated single-phase qZSI.« less

Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

2017-05-01

The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

Model predictive direct power control for active power decoupled single-phase quasi- Z -source inverter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yushan; Ge, Baoming; Abu-Rub, Haitham

In this study, the active power filter (APF) that consists of a half-bridge leg and an ac capacitor is integrated in the single-phase quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI) in this paper to avoid the second harmonic power flowing into the dc side. The capacitor of APF buffers the second harmonic power of the load, and the ac capacitor allows highly pulsating ac voltage, so that the capacitances of both dc and ac sides can be small. A model predictive direct power control (DPC) is further proposed to achieve the purpose of this newtopology through predicting the capacitor voltage of APF at eachmore » sampling period and ensuring the APF power to track the second harmonic power of single-phase qZSI. Simulation and experimental results verify the model predictive DPC for the APF-integrated single-phase qZSI.« less

Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development.

PubMed

Rufibach, Kaspar; Burger, Hans Ulrich; Abt, Markus

2016-09-01

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u-shape very similar, but not equal, to a β-distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Smart Grid Integrity Attacks: Characterizations and Countermeasures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annarita Giani; Eilyan Bitar; Miles McQueen

2011-10-01

Real power injections at loads and generators, and real power flows on selected lines in a transmission network are monitored, transmitted over a SCADA network to the system operator, and used in state estimation algorithms to make dispatch, re-balance and other energy management system [EMS] decisions. Coordinated cyber attacks of power meter readings can be arranged to be undetectable by any bad data detection algorithm. These unobservable attacks present a serious threat to grid operations. Of particular interest are sparse attacks that involve the compromise of a modest number of meter readings. An efficient algorithm to find all unobservable attacksmore » [under standard DC load flow approximations] involving the compromise of exactly two power injection meters and an arbitrary number of power meters on lines is presented. This requires O(n2m) flops for a power system with n buses and m line meters. If all lines are metered, there exist canonical forms that characterize all 3, 4, and 5-sparse unobservable attacks. These can be quickly detected in power systems using standard graph algorithms. Known secure phase measurement units [PMUs] can be used as countermeasures against an arbitrary collection of cyber attacks. Finding the minimum number of necessary PMUs is NP-hard. It is shown that p + 1 PMUs at carefully chosen buses are sufficient to neutralize a collection of p cyber attacks.« less

Predicting the Benefits of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention on 1-Year Angina and Quality of Life in Stable Ischemic Heart Disease: Risk Models From the COURAGE Trial (Clinical Outcomes Utilizing Revascularization and Aggressive Drug Evaluation).

PubMed

Zhang, Zugui; Jones, Philip; Weintraub, William S; Mancini, G B John; Sedlis, Steven; Maron, David J; Teo, Koon; Hartigan, Pamela; Kostuk, William; Berman, Daniel; Boden, William E; Spertus, John A

2018-05-01

Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a therapy to reduce angina and improve quality of life in patients with stable ischemic heart disease. However, it is unclear whether the quality of life after PCI is more dependent on the PCI or other patient-related factors. To address this question, we created models to predict angina and quality of life 1 year after PCI and medical therapy. Using data from the 2287 stable ischemic heart disease patients randomized in the COURAGE trial (Clinical Outcomes Utilizing Revascularization and Aggressive Drug Evaluation) to PCI plus optimal medical therapy (OMT) versus OMT alone, we built prediction models for 1-year Seattle Angina Questionnaire angina frequency, physical limitation, and quality of life scores, both as continuous outcomes and categorized by clinically desirable states, using multivariable techniques. Although most patients improved regardless of treatment, marked variability was observed in Seattle Angina Questionnaire scores 1 year after randomization. Adding PCI conferred a greater mean improvement (about 2 points) in Seattle Angina Questionnaire scores that were not affected by patient characteristics ( P values for all interactions >0.05). The proportion of patients free of angina or having very good/excellent physical limitation (physical function) or quality of life at 1 year was 57%, 58%, 66% with PCI+OMT and 50%, 55%, 59% with OMT alone group, respectively. However, other characteristics, such as baseline symptoms, age, diabetes mellitus, and the magnitude of myocardium subtended by narrowed coronary arteries were as, or more, important than revascularization in predicting symptoms (partial R 2 =0.07 versus 0.29, 0.03 versus 0.22, and 0.05 versus 0.24 in the domain of angina frequency, physical limitation, and quality of life, respectively). There was modest/good discrimination of the models (C statistic=0.72-0.82) and excellent calibration (coefficients of determination for predicted versus observed deciles=0.83-0.97). The health status outcomes of stable ischemic heart disease patients treated by OMT+PCI versus OMT alone can be predicted with modest accuracy. Angina and quality of life at 1 year is improved by PCI but is more strongly associated with other patient characteristics. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00007657. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Power maximization of a point absorber wave energy converter using improved model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Farideh; Moghaddam, Reihaneh Kardehi

2017-08-01

This paper considers controlling and maximizing the absorbed power of wave energy converters for irregular waves. With respect to physical constraints of the system, a model predictive control is applied. Irregular waves' behavior is predicted by Kalman filter method. Owing to the great influence of controller parameters on the absorbed power, these parameters are optimized by imperialist competitive algorithm. The results illustrate the method's efficiency in maximizing the extracted power in the presence of unknown excitation force which should be predicted by Kalman filter.

Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) modeling of late rectal bleeding following external beam radiotherapy for prostate cancer: A Test of the QUANTEC-recommended NTCP model.

PubMed

Liu, Mitchell; Moiseenko, Vitali; Agranovich, Alexander; Karvat, Anand; Kwan, Winkle; Saleh, Ziad H; Apte, Aditya A; Deasy, Joseph O

2010-10-01

Validating a predictive model for late rectal bleeding following external beam treatment for prostate cancer would enable safer treatments or dose escalation. We tested the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model recommended in the recent QUANTEC review (quantitative analysis of normal tissue effects in the clinic). One hundred and sixty one prostate cancer patients were treated with 3D conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer at the British Columbia Cancer Agency in a prospective protocol. The total prescription dose for all patients was 74 Gy, delivered in 2 Gy/fraction. 159 3D treatment planning datasets were available for analysis. Rectal dose volume histograms were extracted and fitted to a Lyman-Kutcher-Burman NTCP model. Late rectal bleeding (>grade 2) was observed in 12/159 patients (7.5%). Multivariate logistic regression with dose-volume parameters (V50, V60, V70, etc.) was non-significant. Among clinical variables, only age was significant on a Kaplan-Meier log-rank test (p=0.007, with an optimal cut point of 77 years). Best-fit Lyman-Kutcher-Burman model parameters (with 95% confidence intervals) were: n = 0.068 (0.01, +infinity); m =0.14 (0.0, 0.86); and TD50 = 81 (27, 136) Gy. The peak values fall within the 95% QUANTEC confidence intervals. On this dataset, both models had only modest ability to predict complications: the best-fit model had a Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of rs = 0.099 (p = 0.11) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.62; the QUANTEC model had rs=0.096 (p= 0.11) and a corresponding AUC of 0.61. Although the QUANTEC model consistently predicted higher NTCP values, it could not be rejected according to the χ(2) test (p = 0.44). Observed complications, and best-fit parameter estimates, were consistent with the QUANTEC-preferred NTCP model. However, predictive power was low, at least partly because the rectal dose distribution characteristics do not vary greatly within this patient cohort.

Where Big Data and Prediction Meet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahrens, James; Brase, Jim M.; Hart, Bill

Our ability to assemble and analyze massive data sets, often referred to under the title of “big data”, is an increasingly important tool for shaping national policy. This in turn has introduced issues from privacy concerns to cyber security. But as IBM’s John Kelly emphasized in the last Innovation, making sense of the vast arrays of data will require radically new computing tools. In the past, technologies and tools for analysis of big data were viewed as quite different from the traditional realm of high performance computing (HPC) with its huge models of phenomena such as global climate or supportingmore » the nuclear test moratorium. Looking ahead, this will change with very positive benefits for both worlds. Societal issues such as global security, economic planning and genetic analysis demand increased understanding that goes beyond existing data analysis and reduction. The modeling world often produces simulations that are complex compositions of mathematical models and experimental data. This has resulted in outstanding successes such as the annual assessment of the state of the US nuclear weapons stockpile without underground nuclear testing. Ironically, while there were historically many test conducted, this body of data provides only modest insight into the underlying physics of the system. A great deal of emphasis was thus placed on the level of confidence we can develop for the predictions. As data analytics and simulation come together, there is a growing need to assess the confidence levels in both data being gathered and the complex models used to make predictions. An example of this is assuring the security or optimizing the performance of critical infrastructure systems such as the power grid. If one wants to understand the vulnerabilities of the system or impacts of predicted threats, full scales tests of the grid against threat scenarios are unlikely. Preventive measures would need to be predicated on well-defined margins of confidence in order to take mitigating actions that could have wide ranging impacts. There is a rich opportunity for interaction and exchange between the HPC simulation and data analytics communities.« less

Cognitive decline and quality of life in incident Parkinson's disease: The role of attention.

PubMed

Lawson, Rachael A; Yarnall, Alison J; Duncan, Gordon W; Breen, David P; Khoo, Tien K; Williams-Gray, Caroline H; Barker, Roger A; Collerton, Daniel; Taylor, John-Paul; Burn, David J

2016-06-01

Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD) is associated with poorer quality of life (QoL). Prior to the onset of PDD, many patients experience progressive cognitive impairment. There is a paucity of longitudinal studies investigating the effects of cognitive decline on QoL. This study aimed to determine the longitudinal impact of cognitive change on QoL in an incident PD cohort. Recently diagnosed patients with PD (n = 212) completed a schedule of neuropsychological assessments and QoL measures; these were repeated after 18 (n = 190) and 36 months (n = 158). Mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI) was classified with reference to the Movement Disorder Society criteria. Principal component analysis was used to reduce 10 neuropsychological tests to three cognitive factors: attention, memory/executive function, and global cognition. Baseline PD-MCI was a significant contributor to QoL (β = 0.2, p < 0.01). For those subjects (9%) who developed dementia, cognitive function had a much greater impact on QoL (β = 10.3, p < 0.05). Multivariate modelling showed attentional deficits had the strongest predictive power (β = -2.3, p < 0.01); brief global tests only modestly predicted decline in QoL (β = -0.4, p < 0.01). PD-MCI was associated with poorer QoL over three years follow up. Cognitive impairment had a greater impact on QoL in individuals who developed dementia over follow-up. Impaired attention was a significant determinant of QoL in PD. Interventions which improve concentration and attention in those with PD could potentially improve QoL. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modest net autotrophy in the oligotrophic ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letscher, Robert T.; Moore, J. Keith

2017-04-01

The metabolic state of the oligotrophic subtropical ocean has long been debated. Net community production (NCP) represents the balance of autotrophic carbon fixation with heterotrophic respiration. Many in vitro NCP estimates based on oxygen incubation methods and the corresponding scaling relationships used to predict the ecosystem metabolic balance have suggested the ocean gyres to be net heterotrophic; however, all in situ NCP methods find net autotrophy. Reconciling net heterotrophy requires significant allochthonous inputs of organic carbon to the oligotrophic gyres to sustain a preponderance of respiration over in situ production. Here we use the first global ecosystem-ocean circulation model that contains representation of the three allochthonous carbon sources to the open ocean, to show that the five oligotrophic gyres exhibit modest net autotrophy throughout the seasonal cycle. Annually integrated rates of NCP vary in the range 1.5-2.2 mol O2 m-2 yr-1 across the five gyre systems; however, seasonal NCP rates are as low as 1 ± 0.5 mmol O2 m-2 d-1 for the North Atlantic. Volumetric NCP rates are heterotrophic below the 10% light level; however, they become net autotrophic when integrated over the euphotic zone. Observational uncertainties when measuring these modest autotrophic NCP rates as well as the metabolic diversity encountered across space and time complicate the scaling up of in vitro measurements to the ecosystem scale and may partially explain the previous reports of net heterotrophy. The oligotrophic ocean is autotrophic at present; however, it could shift toward seasonal heterotrophy in the future as rising temperatures stimulate respiration.

Improving Disease Prediction by Incorporating Family Disease History in Risk Prediction Models with Large-Scale Genetic Data.

PubMed

Gim, Jungsoo; Kim, Wonji; Kwak, Soo Heon; Choi, Hosik; Park, Changyi; Park, Kyong Soo; Kwon, Sunghoon; Park, Taesung; Won, Sungho

2017-11-01

Despite the many successes of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), the known susceptibility variants identified by GWAS have modest effect sizes, leading to notable skepticism about the effectiveness of building a risk prediction model from large-scale genetic data. However, in contrast to genetic variants, the family history of diseases has been largely accepted as an important risk factor in clinical diagnosis and risk prediction. Nevertheless, the complicated structures of the family history of diseases have limited their application in clinical practice. Here, we developed a new method that enables incorporation of the general family history of diseases with a liability threshold model, and propose a new analysis strategy for risk prediction with penalized regression analysis that incorporates both large numbers of genetic variants and clinical risk factors. Application of our model to type 2 diabetes in the Korean population (1846 cases and 1846 controls) demonstrated that single-nucleotide polymorphisms accounted for 32.5% of the variation explained by the predicted risk scores in the test data set, and incorporation of family history led to an additional 6.3% improvement in prediction. Our results illustrate that family medical history provides valuable information on the variation of complex diseases and improves prediction performance. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Novak, M.; Wootton, J.T.; Doak, D.F.; Emmerson, M.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.

2011-01-01

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (??25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Observations of potential ultra high energy gamma-ray sources above 10(15) eV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, A.; Lloyd-Evans, J.; Perrett, J. C.; Watson, A. A.; West, A. A.

1985-01-01

The Haverah Park 50 m water-Cerenkov array has been used to examine a number of periodic sources for ultra high energy gamma-ray emission above 10 to the 15th power eV. The data, recorded between 1 Jan. 1979 and 31 Dec. 1984, feature a modest angular resolution of approx 3 deg with millisecond arrival time resolution post 1982. The sources investigated include the Crab pulsar, Her X-1, Au0115 + 63 and Geminga. All objects have been detected by workers in the TeV region, with varying degrees of confidence.

Thermally driven electrokinetic energy conversion with liquid water microjets

DOE PAGES

Lam, Royce K.; Gamlieli, Zach; Harris, Stephen J.; ...

2015-11-01

One goal of current energy research is to design systems and devices that can efficiently exploit waste heat and utilize solar or geothermal heat energy for electrical power generation. We demonstrate a novel technique exploiting water's large coefficient of thermal expansion, wherein modest thermal gradients produce the requisite high pressure for driving fast-flowing liquid water microjets, which can effect the direct conversion of the kinetic energy into electricity and gaseous hydrogen. Waste heat in thermoelectric generating plants and combustion engines, as well as solar and geothermal energy could be used to drive these systems.

Large On-Chip Amplification in Silicon via Forward Stimulated Brillouin Scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kittlaus, Eric; Shin, Heedeuk; Rakich, Peter

2015-10-15

Strong Brillouin coupling has only recently been realized in silicon using a new class of op- tomechanical waveguides that yield both optical and phononic con nement. Despite these major advances, appreciable Brillouin ampli cation has yet to be observed in silicon. Using new membrane- suspended silicon waveguide we report large Brillouin ampli cation for the rst time, reaching levels greater than 5 dB for modest pump powers, and demonstrate a record low (5 mW) threshold for net ampli cation. This work represents a crucial advance necessary to realize high-performance Brillouin lasers and ampli ers in silicon.

A case for Redundant Arrays of Inexpensive Disks (RAID)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, David A.; Gibson, Garth; Katz, Randy H.

1988-01-01

Increasing performance of CPUs and memories will be squandered if not matched by a similar performance increase in I/O. While the capacity of Single Large Expensive Disks (SLED) has grown rapidly, the performance improvement of SLED has been modest. Redundant Arrays of Inexpensive Disks (RAID), based on the magnetic disk technology developed for personal computers, offers an attractive alternative to SLED, promising improvements of an order of magnitude in performance, reliability, power consumption, and scalability. This paper introduces five levels of RAIDs, giving their relative cost/performance, and compares RAID to an IBM 3380 and a Fujitsu Super Eagle.

Thermally driven electrokinetic energy conversion with liquid water microjets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Royce K.; Gamlieli, Zach; Harris, Stephen J.; Saykally, Richard J.

2015-11-01

A goal of current energy research is to design systems and devices that can efficiently exploit waste heat and utilize solar or geothermal heat energy for electrical power generation. We demonstrate a novel technique exploiting water's large coefficient of thermal expansion, wherein modest thermal gradients produce the requisite high pressure for driving fast-flowing liquid water microjets, which can effect the direct conversion of the kinetic energy into electricity and gaseous hydrogen. Waste heat in thermoelectric generating plants and combustion engines, as well as solar and geothermal energy could be used to drive these systems.

Development and design of photovoltaic power prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhijia; Zhou, Hai; Cheng, Xu

2018-02-01

In order to reduce the impact of power grid safety caused by volatility and randomness of the energy produced in photovoltaic power plants, this paper puts forward a construction scheme on photovoltaic power generation prediction system, introducing the technical requirements, system configuration and function of each module, and discussing the main technical features of the platform software development. The scheme has been applied in many PV power plants in the northwest of China. It shows that the system can produce reasonable prediction results, providing a right guidance for dispatching and efficient running for PV power plant.

PG 1553+113: Five Years Of Observations With Magic

DOE PAGES

J., Aleksić

2012-03-05

We present the results of five years (2005-2009) of MAGIC observations of the BL Lac object PG 1553+113 at very high energies (VHEs; E > 100 GeV). Power-law fits of the individual years are compatible with a steady mean photon index Γ = 4.27 ± 0.14. In the last three years of data, the flux level above 150 GeV shows a clear variability (probability of constant flux < 0.001%). The flux variations are modest, lying in the range from 4% to 11% of the Crab Nebula flux. Simultaneous optical data also show only modest variability that seems to be correlatedmore » with VHE gamma-ray variability. We also performed a temporal analysis of (all available) simultaneous Fermi/Large Area Telescope data of PG 1553+113 above 1 GeV, which reveals hints of variability in the 2008-2009 sample. Finally, we present a combination of the mean spectrum measured at VHEs with archival data available for other wavelengths. The mean spectral energy distribution can be modeled with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model, which gives the main physical parameters governing the VHE emission in the blazar jet.« less

Radar systems for the water resources mission. Volume 4: Appendices E-I

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, R. K.; Claassen, J. P.; Erickson, R. L.; Fong, R. K. T.; Hanson, B. C.; Komen, M. J.; Mcmillan, S. B.; Parashar, S. K.

1976-01-01

The use of a scanning antenna beam for a synthetic aperture system was examined. When the resolution required was modest, the radar did not use all the time the beam was passing a given point on the ground to build a synthetic aperture, so time was available to scan the beam to other positions and build several images at different ranges. The scanning synthetic-aperture radar (SCANSAR) could achieve swathwidths of well over 100 km with modest antenna size. Design considerations for a SCANSAR for hydrologic parameter observation are presented. Because of the high sensitivity to soil moisture at angles of incidence near vertical, a 7 to 22 deg swath was considered for that application. For snow and ice monitoring, a 22 to 37 deg scan was used. Frequencies from X-band to L-band were used in the design studies, but the proposed system operated in C-band at 4.75 GHz. It achieved an azimuth resolution of about 50 meters at all angles, with a range resolution varying from 150 meters at 7 deg to 31 meters at 37 deg. The antenna required an aperture of 3 x 4.16 meters, and the average transmitter power was under 2 watts.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolme, David S; Mikkilineni, Aravind K; Rose, Derek C

Analog computational circuits have been demonstrated to provide substantial improvements in power and speed relative to digital circuits, especially for applications requiring extreme parallelism but only modest precision. Deep machine learning is one such area and stands to benefit greatly from analog and mixed-signal implementations. However, even at modest precisions, offsets and non-linearity can degrade system performance. Furthermore, in all but the simplest systems, it is impossible to directly measure the intermediate outputs of all sub-circuits. The result is that circuit designers are unable to accurately evaluate the non-idealities of computational circuits in-situ and are therefore unable to fully utilizemore » measurement results to improve future designs. In this paper we present a technique to use deep learning frameworks to model physical systems. Recently developed libraries like TensorFlow make it possible to use back propagation to learn parameters in the context of modeling circuit behavior. Offsets and scaling errors can be discovered even for sub-circuits that are deeply embedded in a computational system and not directly observable. The learned parameters can be used to refine simulation methods or to identify appropriate compensation strategies. We demonstrate the framework using a mixed-signal convolution operator as an example circuit.« less

Managing PV Power on Mars - MER Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, Paul M.; Chin, Keith; Wood, Eric; Herman, Jennifer; Ewell, Richard

2009-01-01

The MER Rovers have recently completed over 5 years of operation! This is a remarkable demonstration of the capabilities of PV power on the Martian surface. The extended mission required the development of an efficient process to predict the power available to the rovers on a day-to-day basis. The performance of the MER solar arrays is quite unlike that of any other Space array and perhaps more akin to Terrestrial PV operation, although even severe by that comparison. The impact of unpredictable factors, such as atmospheric conditions and dust accumulation (and removal) on the panels limits the accurate prediction of array power to short time spans. Based on the above, it is clear that long term power predictions are not sufficiently accurate to allow for detailed long term planning. Instead, the power assessment is essentially a daily activity, effectively resetting the boundary points for the overall predictive power model. A typical analysis begins with the importing of the telemetry from each rover's previous day's power subsystem activities. This includes the array power generated, battery state-of-charge, rover power loads, and rover orientation, all as functions of time. The predicted performance for that day is compared to the actual performance to identify the extent of any differences. The model is then corrected for these changes. Details of JPL's MER power analysis procedure are presented, including the description of steps needed to provide the final prediction for the mission planners. A dust cleaning event of the solar array is also highlighted to illustrate the impact of Martian weather on solar array performance

Pin1 as a Biomarker of ER+ Breast Cancers to Predict the Response to Tamoxifen and mTOR Inhibitors

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-01

for Pin1 in modulating S6K and Akt activity. We did, however, find a modest but reproducible defect in global protein synthesis and G0 exit. To...MEFs led to a small but reproducible defect in global protein synthesis and G0 exit. The immune system is comprised of multiple cell types that...and Franchi , L. STAT3 tyrosine phosphorylation is critical for interleukin 1 beta and interleukin-6 production in response to lipopolysaccharide and

NASA's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project Unveils a New Geospatial Data Portal

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-03-16

NASA's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project Unveils a New Geospatial Data Portal ... current POWER home page. The new POWER will include improved solar and meteorological data with all parameters available on a 0.5-degree ...

Communal and Agentic Interpersonal and Intergroup Motives Predict Preferences for Status Versus Power.

PubMed

Locke, Kenneth D; Heller, Sonja

2017-01-01

Seven studies involving 1,343 participants showed how circumplex models of social motives can help explain individual differences in preferences for status (having others' admiration) versus power (controlling valuable resources). Studies 1 to 3 and 7 concerned interpersonal motives in workplace contexts, and found that stronger communal motives (to have mutual trust, support, and cooperation) predicted being more attracted to status (but not power) and achieving more workplace status, while stronger agentic motives (to be firm, decisive, and influential) predicted being more attracted to and achieving more workplace power, and experiencing a stronger connection between workplace power and job satisfaction. Studies 4 to 6 found similar effects for intergroup motives: Stronger communal motives predicted wanting one's ingroup (e.g., country) to have status-but not power-relative to other groups. Finally, most people preferred status over power, and this was especially true for women, which was partially explained by women having stronger communal motives.

The predictive power of local properties of financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraiani, Petre

2017-01-01

The literature on analyzing the dynamics of financial networks has focused so far on the predictive power of global measures of networks like entropy or index cohesive force. In this paper, I show that the local network properties have similar predictive power. I focus on key network measures like average path length, average degree or cluster coefficient, and also consider the diameter and the s-metric. Using Granger causality tests, I show that some of these measures have statistically significant prediction power with respect to the dynamics of aggregate stock market. Average path length is most robust relative to the frequency of data used or specification (index or growth rate). Most measures are found to have predictive power only for monthly frequency. Further evidences that support this view are provided through a simple regression model.

Predicting energy expenditure through hand rim propulsion power output in individuals who use wheelchairs.

PubMed

Conger, Scott A; Scott, Stacy N; Bassett, David R

2014-07-01

To examine the relationship between hand rim propulsion power and energy expenditure (EE) during wheelchair wheeling and to investigate whether adding other variables to the model could improve on the prediction of EE. Individuals who use manual wheelchairs (n=14) performed five different wheeling activities in a wheelchair with a PowerTap power meter hub built into the right rear wheel. Activities included wheeling on a smooth, level surface at three different speeds (4.5, 5.5 and 6.5 km/h), wheeling on a rubberised track at one speed (5.5 km/h) and wheeling on a sidewalk course that included uphill and downhill segments at a self-selected speed. EE was measured using a portable indirect calorimetry system. Stepwise linear regression was performed to predict EE from power output variables. A repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare the measured EE to the estimates from the power models. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess the agreement between the criterion values and the predicted values. EE and power were significantly correlated (r=0.694, p<0.001). Regression analysis yielded three significant prediction models utilising measured power; measured power and speed; and measured power, speed and heart rate. No significant differences were found between measured EE and any of the prediction models. EE can be accurately and precisely estimated based on hand rim propulsion power. These results indicate that power could be used as a method to assess EE in individuals who use wheelchairs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Does work pay psychologically as well as economically? The role of employment in predicting depressive symptoms and parenting among low-income families.

PubMed

Raver, C Cybele

2003-01-01

This longitudinal study examined quantity and quality of maternal employment as predictors of depressive symptoms and parenting style in a sample of 94 low-income mothers whose 4-year-old children were enrolled in Head Start at baseline. Results suggest that answers to the question of whether work "pays" are complex: Findings suggest some benefits of greater employment participation while also indicating that women holding lower prestige jobs experienced increases in their use of negative parenting style, net of baseline demographic and psychological characteristics. Sparse evidence for selection processes was found, with cohabitation and maternal depressive symptoms modestly predictive of subsequent maternal employment. Implications of these findings for welfare reform and educationally related policies for low-income families are discussed.

Illinois SB 1987: the Clean Coal Portfolio Standard Law

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

On January 12, 2009, Governor Rod Blagojevich signed SB 1987, the Clean Coal Portfolio Standard Law. The legislation establishes emission standards for new coal-fueled power plants power plants that use coal as their primary feedstock. From 2009-2015, new coal-fueled power plants must capture and store 50 percent of the carbon emissions that the facility would otherwise emit; from 2016-2017, 70 percent must be captured and stored; and after 2017, 90 percent must be captured and stored. SB 1987 also establishes a goal of having 25 percent of electricity used in the state to come from cost-effective coal-fueled power plants thatmore » capture and store carbon emissions by 2025. Illinois is the first state to establish a goal for producing electricity from coal-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To support the commercial development of CCS technology, the legislation guarantees purchase agreements for the first Illinois coal facility with CCS technology, the Taylorville Energy Center (TEC); Illinois utilities are required to purchase at least 5 percent of their electricity supply from the TEC, provided that customer rates experience only modest increases. The TEC is expected to be completed in 2014 with the ability to capture and store at least 50 percent of its carbon emissions.« less

Conditional power and predictive power based on right censored data with supplementary auxiliary information.

PubMed

Sun, Libo; Wan, Ying

2018-04-22

Conditional power and predictive power provide estimates of the probability of success at the end of the trial based on the information from the interim analysis. The observed value of the time to event endpoint at the interim analysis could be biased for the true treatment effect due to early censoring, leading to a biased estimate of conditional power and predictive power. In such cases, the estimates and inference for this right censored primary endpoint are enhanced by incorporating a fully observed auxiliary variable. We assume a bivariate normal distribution of the transformed primary variable and a correlated auxiliary variable. Simulation studies are conducted that not only shows enhanced conditional power and predictive power but also can provide the framework for a more efficient futility interim analysis in terms of an improved accuracy in estimator, a smaller inflation in type II error and an optimal timing for such analysis. We also illustrated the new approach by a real clinical trial example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fifth amendment taking and environmental protection under the police power: Historical development and a modest proposal to address the muddle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Root, T.E.; Dotterrer, I.L.

1995-12-01

Under its developing {open_quotes}just compensation{close_quotes} jurisprudence, the United States Supreme Court has applied the constitutional requirement (of just compensation for taking private property for public use) to overly intrusive regulations. The application of the just compensation clause to governmental environmental protection activity has pitted the basic principle of protection of private property from government confiscation against another basic principle-the police power (which allows the government to regulate the use of property to protect the health, safety, and welfare of the people). The authors outline the muddle resulting from the conflict of these two constitutional principles after tracing the development ofmore » each. This article first outlines the general trend of increasing regulation of the uses of private property under environmental laws pursuant to the police power, and then outlines the development of Fifth Amendment just compensation jurisprudence (from eminent domain, through inverse condemnation, to regulatory taking). The authors urge Congress to authorize a Commission to review exercise of the police power and environmental protection legislation in light of the Fifth Amendment just compensation provision and to recommend legislation that will reconcile the two principles.« less

Single Null Negative Triangularity Tokamak for Power Handling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikuchi, Mitsuru; Medvedev, S.; Takizuka, T.; Sauter, O.; Merle, A.; Coda, S.; Chen, D.; Li, J. X.

2017-10-01

Power and particle control in fusion reactor is challenge and we proposed the negative triangularity tokamak (NTT) to eliminate ELM by operating L-mode edge with improved core confinement. The SN configuration has more flexibility in shaping by adopting rectangular-shaped TF coils. The limiting normalized beta is 3.56 with wall stabilization and 3.14 without wall. The vertical stability is assured under a reasonable control system. The wetted area on the divertor plates becomes wider in proportion to the larger major radius at the divertor strike points due to the NT configuration. In addition to the major-radius effect, the ``Flux Tune Expansion (FTE)'' is adopted to further reduce the heat load on the divertor plate by factor of 2.6 with a coil current 3 MA. L-mode edge also allows further increase in wetted area. The fusion power of 3 GW is deliverable only at normalized beta 2.1. Therefore this reactor may be operable stably against the serious MHD activities. The CD power for SS operation is 175 MW at Q = 17. AC operation is also possible option. A required HH factor is relatively modest H = 1.12.

Improving the power of long term rodent carcinogenicity bioassays by adjusting the experimental design.

PubMed

Jackson, Matthew T

2015-07-01

Since long term rodent carcinogenicity studies are used to test a very large number of potential tumor endpoints, finding a balance between the control of Type 1 and Type 2 error is challenging. As a result, these studies can suffer from very low power to detect effects of regulatory significance. In the present paper, a new design is proposed in order address this problem. This design is a simple modification of the existing standard designs and uses the same number of animals. Where it differs from the currently used designs is that it uses just three treatment groups rather than four, with the animals concentrated in the control and high dose groups, rather than being equally distributed among the groups. This new design is tested, in a pair of simulation studies over a range of scenarios, against two currently used designs, and against a maximally powerful two group design. It consistently performs at levels close to the optimal design, and except in the case of relatively modest effects and very rare tumors, is found to increase power by 10%-20% over the current designs while maintaining or reducing the Type 1 error rate. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Accelerated reduction in SO₂ emissions from the U.S. power sector triggered by changing prices of natural gas.

PubMed

Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael B; Wu, Gang; Nielsen, Chris P

2012-07-17

Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) from the U.S. power sector decreased by 24% in 2009 relative to 2008. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach was applied to isolate the factors responsible for this decrease. It is concluded that 15% of the decrease can be attributed to the drop in demand for electricity triggered by the economic recession, and 28% can be attributed to switching of fuel from coal to gas responding to the decrease in prices for the latter. The largest factor in the decrease, close to 57%, resulted from an overall decline in emissions per unit of power generated from coal. This is attributed in part to selective idling of older, less efficient coal plants that generally do not incorporate technology for sulfur removal, and in part to continued investments by the power sector in removal equipment in response to the requirements limiting emissions imposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). The paper argues further that imposition of a modest tax on emissions of carbon would have ancillary benefits in terms of emissions of SO(2).

The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

2016-09-01

This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

2017-08-01

The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

Evaluating Upper-Body Strength and Power From a Single Test: The Ballistic Push-up.

PubMed

Wang, Ran; Hoffman, Jay R; Sadres, Eliahu; Bartolomei, Sandro; Muddle, Tyler W D; Fukuda, David H; Stout, Jeffrey R

2017-05-01

Wang, R, Hoffman, JR, Sadres, E, Bartolomei, S, Muddle, TWD, Fukuda, DH, and Stout, JR. Evaluating upper-body strength and power from a single test: the ballistic push-up. J Strength Cond Res 31(5): 1338-1345, 2017-The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of the ballistic push-up (BPU) exercise and to develop a prediction model for both maximal strength (1 repetition maximum [1RM]) in the bench press exercise and upper-body power. Sixty recreationally active men completed a 1RM bench press and 2 BPU assessments in 3 separate testing sessions. Peak and mean force, peak and mean rate of force development, net impulse, peak velocity, flight time, and peak and mean power were determined. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to examine the reliability of the BPU. Stepwise linear regression was used to develop 1RM bench press and power prediction equations. Intraclass correlation coefficient's ranged from 0.849 to 0.971 for the BPU measurements. Multiple regression analysis provided the following 1RM bench press prediction equation: 1RM = 0.31 × Mean Force - 1.64 × Body Mass + 0.70 (R = 0.837, standard error of the estimate [SEE] = 11 kg); time-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 11.0 × Body Mass + 2012.3 × Flight Time - 338.0 (R = 0.658, SEE = 150 W), Mean Power = 6.7 × Body Mass + 1004.4 × Flight Time - 224.6 (R = 0.664, SEE = 82 W); and velocity-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 8.1 × Body Mass + 818.6 × Peak Velocity - 762.0 (R = 0.797, SEE = 115 W); Mean Power = 5.2 × Body Mass + 435.9 × Peak Velocity - 467.7 (R = 0.838, SEE = 57 W). The BPU is a reliable test for both upper-body strength and power. Results indicate that the mean force generated from the BPU can be used to predict 1RM bench press, whereas peak velocity and flight time measured during the BPU can be used to predict upper-body power. These findings support the potential use of the BPU as a valid method to evaluate upper-body strength and power.

Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

2010-09-01

Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models are using a number of weather parameters like wind speed in different heights, friction velocity and DTHV. The 25 wind sites are scattered around in Europe and contains 4 offshore parks and 21 onshore parks in various terrain complexity. The "day a head" forecasts are compared with production data and predictability for the period February 2010-April 2010 are given in Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSE). The power predictability results are mapped for each turbine giving a clear picture of the predictability in Europe. . Finally a economic analysis are shown for each wind parks in different regimes of predictability will be compared with regard to the balance costs that result from errors in the wind power prediction. Analysis shows that it may very well be profitable to place wind parks in regions of lower, but more predictable wind ressource. Authors: Ivan Ristic, CTO Weather2Umberlla D.O.O Tomislav Maric, Meteorologist at Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Line Gulstad, Manager Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Jesper Thiesen, CEO ConWx ApS

Power Beaming Leakage Radiation as A SETI Observable

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benford, James N.; Benford, Dominic J.

2016-01-01

The most observable leakage radiation from an advanced civilization may well be from the use of power beam-ing to transfer energy and accelerate spacecraft. Applications suggested for power beaming involve launching spacecraft to orbit, raising satellites to a higher orbit, and interplanetary concepts involving space-to-space transfers of cargo or passengers. We also quantify beam-driven launch to the outer solar system, interstellar precursors and ultimately starships. We estimate the principal observable parameters of power beaming leak-age. Extraterrestrial civilizations would know their power beams could be observed, and so could put a message on the power beam and broadcast it for our receipt at little additional energy or cost. By observing leakage from power beams we may find a message embedded on the beam. Recent observations of the anomalous star KIC8462852 by the Allen Telescope Array (ATA) set some limits on extraterrestrial power beaming in that system.We show that most power beaming applications commensurate with those suggested for our solar system would be detectable if using the frequency range monitored by the ATA, and so the lack of detection is a meaningful,if modest, constraint on extraterrestrial power beaming in that system. Until more extensive observations are made, the limited observation time and frequency coverage are not sufficiently broad in frequency and duration to produce firm conclusions. Such beams would be visible over large interstellar distances. This implies a new approach to the SETI search: Instead of focusing on narrowband beacon transmissions generated by another civilization, look for more powerful beams with much wider bandwidth. This requires a new approach for their discovery by telescopes on Earth. Further studies of power beaming applications should be done, which could broaden the parameter space of observable features we have discussed here.

Power Beaming Leakage Radiation as a SETI Observable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benford, James N.; Benford, Dominic J.

2016-07-01

The most observable leakage radiation from an advanced civilization may well be from the use of power beaming to transfer energy and accelerate spacecraft. Applications suggested for power beaming involve launching spacecraft to orbit, raising satellites to a higher orbit, and interplanetary concepts involving space-to-space transfers of cargo or passengers. We also quantify beam-driven launch to the outer solar system, interstellar precursors, and ultimately starships. We estimate the principal observable parameters of power beaming leakage. Extraterrestrial civilizations would know their power beams could be observed, and so could put a message on the power beam and broadcast it for our receipt at little additional energy or cost. By observing leakage from power beams we may find a message embedded on the beam. Recent observations of the anomalous star KIC 8462852 by the Allen Telescope Array (ATA) set some limits on extraterrestrial power beaming in that system. We show that most power beaming applications commensurate with those suggested for our solar system would be detectable if using the frequency range monitored by the ATA, and so the lack of detection is a meaningful, if modest, constraint on extraterrestrial power beaming in that system. Until more extensive observations are made, the limited observation time and frequency coverage are not sufficiently broad in frequency and duration to produce firm conclusions. Such beams would be visible over large interstellar distances. This implies a new approach to the SETI search: instead of focusing on narrowband beacon transmissions generated by another civilization, look for more powerful beams with much wider bandwidth. This requires a new approach for their discovery by telescopes on Earth. Further studies of power beaming applications should be performed, potentially broadening the parameter space of the observable features that we have discussed here.

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan M

2017-06-03

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Cloud Computing with iPlant Atmosphere.

PubMed

McKay, Sheldon J; Skidmore, Edwin J; LaRose, Christopher J; Mercer, Andre W; Noutsos, Christos

2013-10-15

Cloud Computing refers to distributed computing platforms that use virtualization software to provide easy access to physical computing infrastructure and data storage, typically administered through a Web interface. Cloud-based computing provides access to powerful servers, with specific software and virtual hardware configurations, while eliminating the initial capital cost of expensive computers and reducing the ongoing operating costs of system administration, maintenance contracts, power consumption, and cooling. This eliminates a significant barrier to entry into bioinformatics and high-performance computing for many researchers. This is especially true of free or modestly priced cloud computing services. The iPlant Collaborative offers a free cloud computing service, Atmosphere, which allows users to easily create and use instances on virtual servers preconfigured for their analytical needs. Atmosphere is a self-service, on-demand platform for scientific computing. This unit demonstrates how to set up, access and use cloud computing in Atmosphere. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Liquid metal enabled pump

PubMed Central

Tang, Shi-Yang; Khoshmanesh, Khashayar; Sivan, Vijay; Petersen, Phred; O’Mullane, Anthony P.; Abbott, Derek; Mitchell, Arnan; Kalantar-zadeh, Kourosh

2014-01-01

Small-scale pumps will be the heartbeat of many future micro/nanoscale platforms. However, the integration of small-scale pumps is presently hampered by limited flow rate with respect to the input power, and their rather complicated fabrication processes. These issues arise as many conventional pumping effects require intricate moving elements. Here, we demonstrate a system that we call the liquid metal enabled pump, for driving a range of liquids without mechanical moving parts, upon the application of modest electric field. This pump incorporates a droplet of liquid metal, which induces liquid flow at high flow rates, yet with exceptionally low power consumption by electrowetting/deelectrowetting at the metal surface. We present theory explaining this pumping mechanism and show that the operation is fundamentally different from other existing pumps. The presented liquid metal enabled pump is both efficient and simple, and thus has the potential to fundamentally advance the field of microfluidics. PMID:24550485

Computational analysis of current-loss mechanisms in a post-hole convolute driven by magnetically insulated transmission lines

DOE PAGES

Rose, D.  V.; Madrid, E.  A.; Welch, D.  R.; ...

2015-03-04

Numerical simulations of a vacuum post-hole convolute driven by magnetically insulated vacuum transmission lines (MITLs) are used to study current losses due to charged particle emission from the MITL-convolute-system electrodes. This work builds on the results of a previous study [E.A. Madrid et al. Phys. Rev. ST Accel. Beams 16, 120401 (2013)] and adds realistic power pulses, Ohmic heating of anode surfaces, and a model for the formation and evolution of cathode plasmas. The simulations suggest that modestly larger anode-cathode gaps in the MITLs upstream of the convolute result in significantly less current loss. In addition, longer pulse durations leadmore » to somewhat greater current loss due to cathode-plasma expansion. These results can be applied to the design of future MITL-convolute systems for high-current pulsed-power systems.« less

Non-Fermi-liquid nature and exotic thermoelectric power in the heavy-fermion superconductor UBe13

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, Yusei; Pourret, Alexandre; Knebel, Georg; Palacio-Morales, Alexandra; Aoki, Dai

2015-12-01

We report quite exotic thermoelectric power S in UBe13. At 0 T, the negative S /T continues to strongly enhance down to the superconducting transition temperature with no Fermi-liquid behavior. |S /T | is dramatically suppressed and becomes rather modest with increasing field. We have also obtained precise field dependencies of (i) an anomaly in S due to an exotic Kondo effect and (ii) a field-induced anomaly in S /T associated with the anomalous upward Hc 2(T ) . In contrast to the field-sensitive transport property, the normal-state specific heat is magnetically robust, indicating that the largeness of the 5 f density of states remains in high fields. This unusual behavior in UBe13 can be explained by a considerable change in the energy derivative of the conduction-electron lifetime τc(ɛ ) at the Fermi level under magnetic fields.

Noise levels of operational helicopters of the OH-6 type designed to meet the LOH mission. [acoustic properties for various helicopter configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wagner, R. A.

1973-01-01

Formulas relating overall sound pressure level (OASPL) to parameters such as horsepower required, tip speed, and thrust for main and tail rotors are presented for standard and quieted helicopters. Formulas relating OASPL to engine parameters such as horsepower output and percent power turbine rpm are presented for unmuffled and muffled engines. The linear scale was used in preference to any of the weighted scales because it resulted in more consistent agreement with the test data when the SPL is expressed in the usual parameters of tip speed, thrust generated and power required. It is recognized that the linear scale does not adequately reflect hearing response, and hence is not a good absolute measure for detection by humans. However, linear OASPL is believed to be useful as a relative means of comparing noise level variations of individual components in similar helicopters with reasonably modest design changes.

Hard X-ray and low-energy gamma-ray spectrometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gehrels, N.; Crannell, C. J.; Orwig, L. E.; Forrest, D. J.; Lin, R. P.; Starr, R.

1988-01-01

Basic principles of operation and characteristics of scintillation and semi-conductor detectors used for solar hard X-ray and gamma-ray spectrometers are presented. Scintillation materials such as NaI offer high stopping power for incident gamma rays, modest energy resolution, and relatively simple operation. They are, to date, the most often used detector in solar gamma-ray spectroscopy. The scintillator BGO has higher stopping power than NaI, but poorer energy resolution. The primary advantage of semi-conductor materials such as Ge is their high-energy resolution. Monte-Carlo simulations of the response of NaI and Ge detectors to model solar flare inputs show the benefit of high resoluton for studying spectral lines. No semi-conductor material besides Ge is currently available with adequate combined size and purity to make general-use hard X-ray and gamma-ray detectors for solar studies.

Overview of the present progress and activities on the CFETR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Yuanxi; Li, Jiangang; Liu, Yong; Wang, Xiaolin; Chan, Vincent; Chen, Changan; Duan, Xuru; Fu, Peng; Gao, Xiang; Feng, Kaiming; Liu, Songlin; Song, Yuntao; Weng, Peide; Wan, Baonian; Wan, Farong; Wang, Heyi; Wu, Songtao; Ye, Minyou; Yang, Qingwei; Zheng, Guoyao; Zhuang, Ge; Li, Qiang; CFETR Team

2017-10-01

The China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) is the next device in the roadmap for the realization of fusion energy in China, which aims to bridge the gaps between the fusion experimental reactor ITER and the demonstration reactor (DEMO). CFETR will be operated in two phases. Steady-state operation and self-sufficiency will be the two key issues for Phase I with a modest fusion power of up to 200 MW. Phase II aims for DEMO validation with a fusion power over 1 GW. Advanced H-mode physics, high magnetic fields up to 7 T, high frequency electron cyclotron resonance heating and lower hybrid current drive together with off-axis negative-ion neutral beam injection will be developed for achieving steady-state advanced operation. The recent detailed design, research and development (R&D) activities including integrated modeling of operation scenarios, high field magnet, material, tritium plant, remote handling and future plans are introduced in this paper.

Methodological issues in current practice may lead to bias in the development of biomarker combinations for predicting acute kidney injury.

PubMed

Meisner, Allison; Kerr, Kathleen F; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G; Parikh, Chirag R

2016-02-01

Individual biomarkers of renal injury are only modestly predictive of acute kidney injury (AKI). Using multiple biomarkers has the potential to improve predictive capacity. In this systematic review, statistical methods of articles developing biomarker combinations to predict AKI were assessed. We identified and described three potential sources of bias (resubstitution bias, model selection bias, and bias due to center differences) that may compromise the development of biomarker combinations. Fifteen studies reported developing kidney injury biomarker combinations for the prediction of AKI after cardiac surgery (8 articles), in the intensive care unit (4 articles), or other settings (3 articles). All studies were susceptible to at least one source of bias and did not account for or acknowledge the bias. Inadequate reporting often hindered our assessment of the articles. We then evaluated, when possible (7 articles), the performance of published biomarker combinations in the TRIBE-AKI cardiac surgery cohort. Predictive performance was markedly attenuated in six out of seven cases. Thus, deficiencies in analysis and reporting are avoidable, and care should be taken to provide accurate estimates of risk prediction model performance. Hence, rigorous design, analysis, and reporting of biomarker combination studies are essential to realizing the promise of biomarkers in clinical practice.

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Experimental validation of boundary element methods for noise prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Experimental validation of methods to predict radiated noise is presented. A combined finite element and boundary element model was used to predict the vibration and noise of a rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker. The predicted noise was compared to sound power measured by the acoustic intensity method. Inaccuracies in the finite element model shifted the resonance frequencies by about 5 percent. The predicted and measured sound power levels agree within about 2.5 dB. In a second experiment, measured vibration data was used with a boundary element model to predict noise radiation from the top of an operating gearbox. The predicted and measured sound power for the gearbox agree within about 3 dB.

To what extent does the Health Professions Admission Test-Ireland predict performance in early undergraduate tests of communication and clinical skills? An observational cohort study.

PubMed

Kelly, Maureen E; Regan, Daniel; Dunne, Fidelma; Henn, Patrick; Newell, John; O'Flynn, Siun

2013-05-10

Internationally, tests of general mental ability are used in the selection of medical students. Examples include the Medical College Admission Test, Undergraduate Medicine and Health Sciences Admission Test and the UK Clinical Aptitude Test. The most widely used measure of their efficacy is predictive validity.A new tool, the Health Professions Admission Test- Ireland (HPAT-Ireland), was introduced in 2009. Traditionally, selection to Irish undergraduate medical schools relied on academic achievement. Since 2009, Irish and EU applicants are selected on a combination of their secondary school academic record (measured predominately by the Leaving Certificate Examination) and HPAT-Ireland score. This is the first study to report on the predictive validity of the HPAT-Ireland for early undergraduate assessments of communication and clinical skills. Students enrolled at two Irish medical schools in 2009 were followed up for two years. Data collected were gender, HPAT-Ireland total and subsection scores; Leaving Certificate Examination plus HPAT-Ireland combined score, Year 1 Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) scores (Total score, communication and clinical subtest scores), Year 1 Multiple Choice Questions and Year 2 OSCE and subset scores. We report descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficients and Multiple linear regression models. Data were available for 312 students. In Year 1 none of the selection criteria were significantly related to student OSCE performance. The Leaving Certificate Examination and Leaving Certificate plus HPAT-Ireland combined scores correlated with MCQ marks.In Year 2 a series of significant correlations emerged between the HPAT-Ireland and subsections thereof with OSCE Communication Z-scores; OSCE Clinical Z-scores; and Total OSCE Z-scores. However on multiple regression only the relationship between Total OSCE Score and the Total HPAT-Ireland score remained significant; albeit the predictive power was modest. We found that none of our selection criteria strongly predict clinical and communication skills. The HPAT- Ireland appears to measures ability in domains different to those assessed by the Leaving Certificate Examination. While some significant associations did emerge in Year 2 between HPAT Ireland and total OSCE scores further evaluation is required to establish if this pattern continues during the senior years of the medical course.

To what extent does the Health Professions Admission Test-Ireland predict performance in early undergraduate tests of communication and clinical skills? – An observational cohort study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Internationally, tests of general mental ability are used in the selection of medical students. Examples include the Medical College Admission Test, Undergraduate Medicine and Health Sciences Admission Test and the UK Clinical Aptitude Test. The most widely used measure of their efficacy is predictive validity. A new tool, the Health Professions Admission Test- Ireland (HPAT-Ireland), was introduced in 2009. Traditionally, selection to Irish undergraduate medical schools relied on academic achievement. Since 2009, Irish and EU applicants are selected on a combination of their secondary school academic record (measured predominately by the Leaving Certificate Examination) and HPAT-Ireland score. This is the first study to report on the predictive validity of the HPAT-Ireland for early undergraduate assessments of communication and clinical skills. Method Students enrolled at two Irish medical schools in 2009 were followed up for two years. Data collected were gender, HPAT-Ireland total and subsection scores; Leaving Certificate Examination plus HPAT-Ireland combined score, Year 1 Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) scores (Total score, communication and clinical subtest scores), Year 1 Multiple Choice Questions and Year 2 OSCE and subset scores. We report descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficients and Multiple linear regression models. Results Data were available for 312 students. In Year 1 none of the selection criteria were significantly related to student OSCE performance. The Leaving Certificate Examination and Leaving Certificate plus HPAT-Ireland combined scores correlated with MCQ marks. In Year 2 a series of significant correlations emerged between the HPAT-Ireland and subsections thereof with OSCE Communication Z-scores; OSCE Clinical Z-scores; and Total OSCE Z-scores. However on multiple regression only the relationship between Total OSCE Score and the Total HPAT-Ireland score remained significant; albeit the predictive power was modest. Conclusion We found that none of our selection criteria strongly predict clinical and communication skills. The HPAT- Ireland appears to measures ability in domains different to those assessed by the Leaving Certificate Examination. While some significant associations did emerge in Year 2 between HPAT Ireland and total OSCE scores further evaluation is required to establish if this pattern continues during the senior years of the medical course. PMID:23663266

Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

Defence R&D Canada – Atlantic DEFENCE DÉFENSE & Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis D. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J...PREDICTING RADIATED NOISE WITH POWER FLOW FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS D.P. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J.C. Wallace Martec Limited Martec Limited...model- or full-scale data before it is available for general use. Brennan, D.P., Koko , T.S., Jiang, L., Wallace, J.C. 2007. Predicting Radiated

Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

2016-09-01

We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

Social motives and cognitive power-sex associations: predictors of aggressive sexual behavior.

PubMed

Zurbriggen, E L

2000-03-01

The present study investigated whether implicit social motives and cognitive power-sex associations would predict self-reports of aggressive sexual behavior. Participants wrote stories in response to Thematic Apperception Test pictures, which were scored for power and affiliation-intimacy motives. They also completed a lexical-decision priming task that provided an index of the strength of the cognitive association between the concepts of "power" and "sexuality." For men, high levels of power motivation and strong power-sex associations predicted more frequent aggression. There was also an interaction: Power motivation was unrelated to aggression for men with the weakest power-sex associations. For women, high levels of affiliation-intimacy motivation were associated with more frequent aggression. Strong power-sex associations were also predictive for women but only when affiliation-intimacy motivation was high.

A miniature bidirectional telemetry system for in vivo gastric slow wave recordings.

PubMed

Farajidavar, Aydin; O'Grady, Gregory; Rao, Smitha M N; Cheng, Leo K; Abell, Thomas; Chiao, J-C

2012-06-01

Stomach contractions are initiated and coordinated by an underlying electrical activity (slow waves), and electrical dysrhythmias accompany motility diseases. Electrical recordings taken directly from the stomach provide the most valuable data, but face technical constraints. Serosal or mucosal electrodes have cables that traverse the abdominal wall, or a natural orifice, causing discomfort and possible infection, and restricting mobility. These problems motivated the development of a wireless system. The bidirectional telemetric system constitutes a front-end transponder, a back-end receiver and a graphical userinter face. The front-end module conditions the analogue signals, then digitizes and loads the data into a radio for transmission. Data receipt at the backend is acknowledged via a transceiver function. The system was validated in a bench-top study, then validated in vivo using serosal electrodes connected simultaneously to a commercial wired system. The front-end module was 35 × 35 × 27 mm3 and weighed 20 g. Bench-top tests demonstrated reliable communication within a distance range of 30 m, power consumption of 13.5 mW, and 124 h operation when utilizing a 560 mAh, 3 V battery. In vivo,slow wave frequencies were recorded identically with the wireless and wired reference systems (2.4 cycles min−1), automated activation time detection was modestly better for the wireless system (5% versus 14% FP rate), and signal amplitudes were modestly higher via the wireless system (462 versus 3 86μV; p<0.001). This telemetric system for slow wave acquisition is reliable,power efficient, readily portable and potentially implantable. The device will enable chronic monitoring and evaluation of slow wave patterns in animals and patients.0967-3334/

A miniature bidirectional telemetry system for in-vivo gastric slow wave recordings

PubMed Central

Farajidavar, Aydin; O’Grady, Gregory; Rao, Smitha M.N.; Cheng, Leo K; Abell, Thomas; Chiao, J.-C.

2012-01-01

Stomach contractions are initiated and coordinated by an underlying electrical activity (slow waves), and electrical dysrhythmias accompany motility diseases. Electrical recordings taken directly from the stomach provide the most valuable data, but face technical constraints. Serosal or mucosal electrodes have cables that traverse the abdominal wall, or a natural orifice, causing discomfort and possible infection, and restricting mobility. These problems motivated the development of a wireless system. The bidirectional telemetric system constitutes a front-end transponder, a back-end receiver and a graphical user interface. The front-end module conditions the analog signals, then digitizes and loads the data into a radio for transmission. Data receipt at the back-end is acknowledged via a transceiver function. The system was validated in a bench-top study, then validated in-vivo using serosal electrodes connected simultaneously to a commercial wired system. The front-end module was 35×35×27 mm3 and weighed 20 g. Bench-top tests demonstrated reliable communication within a distance range of 30 m, power consumption of 13.5 mW, and 124-hour operation when utilizing a 560-mAh, 3-V battery. In-vivo, slow wave frequencies were recorded identically with the wireless and wired reference systems (2.4 cycles/min), automated activation time detection was modestly better for the wireless system (5% vs 14% false positive rate), and signal amplitudes were modestly higher via the wireless system (462 vs 386 μV; p<0.001). This telemetric system for slow wave acquisition is reliable, power efficient, readily portable and potentially implantable. The device will enable chronic monitoring and evaluation of slow wave patterns in animals and patients. PMID:22635054

Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009.

PubMed

O'Loughlin, John; Witmer, Frank D W; Linke, Andrew M; Laing, Arlene; Gettelman, Andrew; Dudhia, Jimy

2012-11-06

Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate-conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic controls, we analyze the many geographical factors that have been shown to be important in understanding the distribution and causes of violence while also considering yearly and country fixed effects. For our main climate indicators at gridded 1° resolution (~100 km), wetter deviations from the precipitation norms decrease the risk of violence, whereas drier and normal periods show no effects. The relationship between temperature and conflict shows that much warmer than normal temperatures raise the risk of violence, whereas average and cooler temperatures have no effect. These precipitation and temperature effects are statistically significant but have modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors. Large variations in the climate-conflict relationships are evident between the nine countries of the study region and across time periods.

Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009

PubMed Central

O’Loughlin, John; Witmer, Frank D. W.; Linke, Andrew M.; Laing, Arlene; Gettelman, Andrew; Dudhia, Jimy

2012-01-01

Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate–conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic controls, we analyze the many geographical factors that have been shown to be important in understanding the distribution and causes of violence while also considering yearly and country fixed effects. For our main climate indicators at gridded 1° resolution (∼100 km), wetter deviations from the precipitation norms decrease the risk of violence, whereas drier and normal periods show no effects. The relationship between temperature and conflict shows that much warmer than normal temperatures raise the risk of violence, whereas average and cooler temperatures have no effect. These precipitation and temperature effects are statistically significant but have modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors. Large variations in the climate–conflict relationships are evident between the nine countries of the study region and across time periods. PMID:23090992

The Albedo of Kepler's Small Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansen, Tiffany; Kipping, David

2018-01-01

The study of exoplanet phase curves has been established as a powerful tool for measuring the atmospheric properties of other worlds. To first order, phase curves have the same amplitude as occultations, yet far greater temporal baselines enabling substantial improvements in sensitivity. Even so, only a relatively small fraction of Kepler planets have detectable phase curves, leading to a population dominated by hot-Jupiters. One way to boost sensitivity further is to stack different planets of similar types together, giving rise to an average phase curve for a specific ensemble. In this work, we measure the average albedo, thermal redistribution efficiency, and greenhouse boosting factor from the average phase curves of 115 Neptunian and 50 Terran (solid) worlds. We construct ensemble phase curve models for both samples accounting for the reflection and thermal components and regress our models assuming a global albedo, redistribution factor and greenhouse factor in a Bayesian framework. We find modest evidence for a detected phase curve in the Neptunian sample, although the albedo and thermal properties are somewhat degenerate meaning we can only place an upper limit on the albedo of Ag < 0.23 and greenhouse factor of f < 1.40 to 95% confidence. As predicted theoretically, this confirms hot-Neptunes are darker than Neptune and Uranus. Additionally, we place a constraint on the albedo of solid, Terran worlds of Ag < 0.42 and f < 1.60 to 95% confidence, compatible with a dark Lunar-like surface.

Ultra-Sensitive Transition-Edge Sensors (TESs) for Far-IR/Submm Space-Borne Spectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenyon, M.; Day, P. K.; Bradford, C. M.; Bock, J .J.; Leduc, H. G.

2011-01-01

We have built surface micromachined thin-film metallized Si(x)N(y) optical absorbers for transition-edge sensors (TESs) suitable for the Background - Limited far-IR/Submm Spectrograph (BLISS). BLISS is a broadband (38 micrometers - 433 micrometers), grating spectrometer consisting of five wavebands each with a modest resolution of R (is) approx. 1000. Because BLISS requires the effective noise equivalent power (NEP) of the TES to be below 10 (exp 19) W/Hz(exp 1/2), our TESs consist of four long (1000 micrometers), narrow (0.4 micrometers ), and thin (0.25 micrometers ) Si(x) N(y) support beams that reduce the thermal conductance G between the substrate and the optical absorber. To reduce the heat capacity of the absorber and make the response time tau fast enough for BLISS, our absorbers are patterned into a mesh geometry with a fill factor of less than 10%. We use a bilayer of Ti/Au to make the effective impedance of the absorber match the impedance of the incoming radiation for each band. Measurements of the response time of the metallized absorbers to heat pulses show that their heat capacity exceeds the predictions of the Debye model. Our results are suggestive that the surface of the low pressure chemical vapor deposition (LPCVD) Si(x)N(y) used in the absorbers' construction is the source of microstates that dominate the heat capacity.

Pregnancy Complications as Markers for Subsequent Maternal Cardiovascular Disease: Validation of a Maternal Recall Questionnaire.

PubMed

Carter, Ebony Boyce; Stuart, Jennifer J; Farland, Leslie V; Rich-Edwards, Janet W; Zera, Chloe A; McElrath, Thomas F; Seely, Ellen W

2015-09-01

We designed and tested the validity of a questionnaire to characterize maternal recall of pregnancy complications associated with increased future cardiovascular disease risk, based on the 2011 American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines. A maternal recall questionnaire of pregnancy history was administered to 971 patients who had participated in a previous cohort study of 1,608 pregnant women. Medical records from the study pregnancy served as the gold standard. Prevalence, sensitivity (sens), specificity (spec), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and/or Spearman's correlation coefficients (r) were calculated for each question. A total of 526 (54%) individuals recontacted responded. Respondents were more likely to be older, white, educated, and nulliparous and were less likely to deliver low-birthweight infants in the study pregnancy than were individuals who did not respond. Mean length of recall was 4.35 years (standard deviation [SD] 0.46) postpartum. Maternal recall was most accurate for gestational diabetes (sens: 92%, spec: 98%, PPV: 79%, NPV: 99%), infant birthweight (r=0.95), and gestation length (r=0.85). Maternal recall was modest for preeclampsia (sens: 79%, spec: 97%, PPV: 68%, NPV: 98%) and pregnancy-associated hypertension, including preeclampsia or gestational hypertension (sens: 60%, spec: 95%, PPV: 64%, NPV: 94%). This validation study demonstrated that the majority of women could accurately recall a history of gestational diabetes, infant birthweight, and gestational age at delivery, 4 years postpartum on average. Recall of preeclampsia and pregnancy-associated hypertension overall was modest. Maternal report of these pregnancy conditions may help clinicians identify women at increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

Testing whether Metazoan Tyrosine Loss Was Driven by Selection against Promiscuous Phosphorylation

PubMed Central

Pandya, Siddharth; Struck, Travis J.; Mannakee, Brian K.; Paniscus, Mary; Gutenkunst, Ryan N.

2015-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphorylation is a key regulatory modification in metazoans, and the corresponding kinase enzymes have diversified dramatically. This diversification is correlated with a genome-wide reduction in protein tyrosine content, and it was recently suggested that this reduction was driven by selection to avoid promiscuous phosphorylation that might be deleterious. We tested three predictions of this intriguing hypothesis. 1) Selection should be stronger on residues that are more likely to be phosphorylated due to local solvent accessibility or structural disorder. 2) Selection should be stronger on proteins that are more likely to be promiscuously phosphorylated because they are abundant. We tested these predictions by comparing distributions of tyrosine within and among human and yeast orthologous proteins. 3) Selection should be stronger against mutations that create tyrosine versus remove tyrosine. We tested this prediction using human population genomic variation data. We found that all three predicted effects are modest for tyrosine when compared with the other amino acids, suggesting that selection against deleterious phosphorylation was not dominant in driving metazoan tyrosine loss. PMID:25312910

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

PubMed Central

Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

2015-01-01

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC. PMID:26420960

Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.

2018-01-01

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Predicting recidivism with the psychological inventory of criminal thinking styles and level of service inventory-revised: screening version.

PubMed

Walters, Glenn D

2011-06-01

Recidivism was evaluated in 178 male inmates administered the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and scored on the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version (LSI-R:SV) 1-55 months before their release from prison. Age, prior charges, the LSI-R:SV total score, and the PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT), Proactive Criminal Thinking (P), and Reactive Criminal Thinking (R) scores served as predictors of recidivism in follow-ups spanning 1-53 months. Age, prior charges, and the PICTS GCT and R scales consistently and incrementally predicted general recidivism (all charges), whereas prior charges and the PICTS R scale consistently and incrementally predicted serious recidivism (more serious charges). Although these results support the predictive efficacy and incremental validity of content-relevant self-report measures of criminality like the PICTS, they also indicate that the effect is modest and in need of further clarification. One area requiring further investigation is the potential role of the PICTS, particularly the R scale, as a dynamic risk factor.

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

PubMed

Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

2015-09-28

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC.

Potential impact of remote sensing data on sea-state analysis and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardone, V. J.

1983-01-01

The severe North Atlantic storm which damaged the ocean liner Queen Elizabeth 2 (QE2) was studied to assess the impact of remotely sensed marine surface wind data obtained by SEASAT-A, on sea state specifications and forecasts. Alternate representations of the surface wind field in the QE2 storm were produced from the SEASAT enhanced data base, and from operational analyses based upon conventional data. The wind fields were used to drive a high resolution spectral ocean surface wave prediction model. Results show that sea state analyses would have been vastly improved during the period of storm formation and explosive development had remote sensing wind data been available in real time. A modest improvement in operational 12 to 24 hour wave forecasts would have followed automatically from the improved initial state specification made possible by the remote sensing data in both numerical and sea state prediction models. Significantly improved 24 to 48 hour wave forecasts require in addition to remote sensing data, refinement in the numerical and physical aspects of weather prediction models.

Jet Noise Modeling for Supersonic Business Jet Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, James R.; Krejsa, Eugene A.; Clark, Bruce J.

2004-01-01

This document describes the development of an improved predictive model for coannular jet noise, including noise suppression modifications applicable to small supersonic-cruise aircraft such as the Supersonic Business Jet (SBJ), for NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). For such aircraft a wide range of propulsion and integration options are under consideration. Thus there is a need for very versatile design tools, including a noise prediction model. The approach used is similar to that used with great success by the Modern Technologies Corporation (MTC) in developing a noise prediction model for two-dimensional mixer ejector (2DME) nozzles under the High Speed Research Program and in developing a more recent model for coannular nozzles over a wide range of conditions. If highly suppressed configurations are ultimately required, the 2DME model is expected to provide reasonable prediction for these smaller scales, although this has not been demonstrated. It is considered likely that more modest suppression approaches, such as dual stream nozzles featuring chevron or chute suppressors, perhaps in conjunction with inverted velocity profiles (IVP), will be sufficient for the SBJ.

Predicting sleep quality from stress and prior sleep--a study of day-to-day covariation across six weeks.

PubMed

Åkerstedt, Torbjörn; Orsini, Nicola; Petersen, Helena; Axelsson, John; Lekander, Mats; Kecklund, Göran

2012-06-01

The connection between stress and sleep is well established in cross-sectional questionnaire studies and in a few prospective studies. Here, the intention was to study the link between stress and sleep on a day-to-day basis across 42 days. Fifty participants kept a sleep/wake diary across 42 days and responded to daily questions on sleep and stress. The results were analyzed with a mixed model approach using stress during the prior day to predict morning ratings of sleep quality. The results showed that bedtime stress and worries were the main predictors of sleep quality, but that, also, late awakening, short prior sleep, high quality of prior sleep, and good health the prior day predicted higher sleep quality. Stress during the day predicts subsequent sleep quality on a day-to-day basis across 42 days. The observed range of variation in stress/worries was modest, which is why it is suggested that the present data underestimates the impact of stress on subsequent sleep quality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

Currently, cup anemometers on meteorological towers are used to measure wind speeds and turbulence intensity to make decisions about wind turbine class and site suitability; however, as modern turbine hub heights increase and wind energy expands to complex and remote sites, it becomes more difficult and costly to install meteorological towers at potential sites. As a result, remote-sensing devices (e.g., lidars) are now commonly used by wind farm managers and researchers to estimate the flow field at heights spanned by a turbine. Although lidars can accurately estimate mean wind speeds and wind directions, there is still a large amount ofmore » uncertainty surrounding the measurement of turbulence using these devices. Errors in lidar turbulence estimates are caused by a variety of factors, including instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination, in which the magnitude of these factors is highly dependent on measurement height and atmospheric stability. As turbulence has a large impact on wind power production, errors in turbulence measurements will translate into errors in wind power prediction. The impact of using lidars rather than cup anemometers for wind power prediction must be understood if lidars are to be considered a viable alternative to cup anemometers.In this poster, the sensitivity of power prediction error to typical lidar turbulence measurement errors is assessed. Turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar are compared to high-resolution sonic anemometer measurements at field sites in Oklahoma and Colorado to determine the degree of lidar turbulence error that can be expected under different atmospheric conditions. These errors are then incorporated into a power prediction model to estimate the sensitivity of power prediction error to turbulence measurement error. Power prediction models, including the standard binning method and a random forest method, were developed using data from the aeroelastic simulator FAST for a 1.5 MW turbine. The impact of lidar turbulence error on the predicted power from these different models is examined to determine the degree of turbulence measurement accuracy needed for accurate power prediction.« less

POWER Web Access Data

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-05-27

Description:  Obtain Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data The Prediction of Worldwide Energy ... (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current renewable energy data set and to create new data sets from new satellite ...

Electrolysis Propulsion Provides High-Performance, Inexpensive, Clean Spacecraft Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

deGroot, Wim A.

1999-01-01

An electrolysis propulsion system consumes electrical energy to decompose water into hydrogen and oxygen. These gases are stored in separate tanks and used when needed in gaseous bipropellant thrusters for spacecraft propulsion. The propellant and combustion products are clean and nontoxic. As a result, costs associated with testing, handling, and launching can be an order of magnitude lower than for conventional propulsion systems, making electrolysis a cost-effective alternative to state-of-the-art systems. The electrical conversion efficiency is high (>85 percent), and maximum thrust-to-power ratios of 0.2 newtons per kilowatt (N/kW), a 370-sec specific impulse, can be obtained. A further advantage of the water rocket is its dual-mode potential. For relatively high thrust applications, the system can be used as a bipropellant engine. For low thrust levels and/or small impulse bit requirements, cold gas oxygen can be used alone. An added innovation is that the same hardware, with modest modifications, can be converted into an energy-storage and power-generation fuel cell, reducing the spacecraft power and propulsion system weight by an order of magnitude.

A Pd/C-CeO2 Anode Catalyst for High-Performance Platinum-Free Anion Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells.

PubMed

Miller, Hamish A; Lavacchi, Alessandro; Vizza, Francesco; Marelli, Marcello; Di Benedetto, Francesco; D'Acapito, Francesco; Paska, Yair; Page, Miles; Dekel, Dario R

2016-05-10

One of the biggest obstacles to the dissemination of fuel cells is their cost, a large part of which is due to platinum (Pt) electrocatalysts. Complete removal of Pt is a difficult if not impossible task for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEM-FCs). The anion exchange membrane fuel cell (AEM-FC) has long been proposed as a solution as non-Pt metals may be employed. Despite this, few examples of Pt-free AEM-FCs have been demonstrated with modest power output. The main obstacle preventing the realization of a high power density Pt-free AEM-FC is sluggish hydrogen oxidation (HOR) kinetics of the anode catalyst. Here we describe a Pt-free AEM-FC that employs a mixed carbon-CeO2 supported palladium (Pd) anode catalyst that exhibits enhanced kinetics for the HOR. AEM-FC tests run on dry H2 and pure air show peak power densities of more than 500 mW cm(-2) . © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Soft, thin skin-mounted power management systems and their use in wireless thermography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jung Woo; Xu, Renxiao; Lee, Seungmin; Jang, Kyung-In; Yang, Yichen; Banks, Anthony; Yu, Ki Jun; Kim, Jeonghyun; Xu, Sheng; Ma, Siyi; Jang, Sung Woo; Won, Phillip; Li, Yuhang; Kim, Bong Hoon; Choe, Jo Young; Huh, Soojeong; Kwon, Yong Ho; Huang, Yonggang; Paik, Ungyu; Rogers, John A.

2016-05-01

Power supply represents a critical challenge in the development of body-integrated electronic technologies. Although recent research establishes an impressive variety of options in energy storage (batteries and supercapacitors) and generation (triboelectric, piezoelectric, thermoelectric, and photovoltaic devices), the modest electrical performance and/or the absence of soft, biocompatible mechanical properties limit their practical use. The results presented here form the basis of soft, skin-compatible means for efficient photovoltaic generation and high-capacity storage of electrical power using dual-junction, compound semiconductor solar cells and chip-scale, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, respectively. Miniaturized components, deformable interconnects, optimized array layouts, and dual-composition elastomer substrates, superstrates, and encapsulation layers represent key features. Systematic studies of the materials and mechanics identify optimized designs, including unusual configurations that exploit a folded, multilayer construct to improve the functional density without adversely affecting the soft, stretchable characteristics. System-level examples exploit such technologies in fully wireless sensors for precision skin thermography, with capabilities in continuous data logging and local processing, validated through demonstrations on volunteer subjects in various realistic scenarios.

Soft, thin skin-mounted power management systems and their use in wireless thermography.

PubMed

Lee, Jung Woo; Xu, Renxiao; Lee, Seungmin; Jang, Kyung-In; Yang, Yichen; Banks, Anthony; Yu, Ki Jun; Kim, Jeonghyun; Xu, Sheng; Ma, Siyi; Jang, Sung Woo; Won, Phillip; Li, Yuhang; Kim, Bong Hoon; Choe, Jo Young; Huh, Soojeong; Kwon, Yong Ho; Huang, Yonggang; Paik, Ungyu; Rogers, John A

2016-05-31

Power supply represents a critical challenge in the development of body-integrated electronic technologies. Although recent research establishes an impressive variety of options in energy storage (batteries and supercapacitors) and generation (triboelectric, piezoelectric, thermoelectric, and photovoltaic devices), the modest electrical performance and/or the absence of soft, biocompatible mechanical properties limit their practical use. The results presented here form the basis of soft, skin-compatible means for efficient photovoltaic generation and high-capacity storage of electrical power using dual-junction, compound semiconductor solar cells and chip-scale, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, respectively. Miniaturized components, deformable interconnects, optimized array layouts, and dual-composition elastomer substrates, superstrates, and encapsulation layers represent key features. Systematic studies of the materials and mechanics identify optimized designs, including unusual configurations that exploit a folded, multilayer construct to improve the functional density without adversely affecting the soft, stretchable characteristics. System-level examples exploit such technologies in fully wireless sensors for precision skin thermography, with capabilities in continuous data logging and local processing, validated through demonstrations on volunteer subjects in various realistic scenarios.

Soft, thin skin-mounted power management systems and their use in wireless thermography

PubMed Central

Lee, Jung Woo; Xu, Renxiao; Lee, Seungmin; Jang, Kyung-In; Yang, Yichen; Banks, Anthony; Yu, Ki Jun; Kim, Jeonghyun; Xu, Sheng; Ma, Siyi; Jang, Sung Woo; Won, Phillip; Li, Yuhang; Kim, Bong Hoon; Choe, Jo Young; Huh, Soojeong; Kwon, Yong Ho; Huang, Yonggang; Paik, Ungyu; Rogers, John A.

2016-01-01

Power supply represents a critical challenge in the development of body-integrated electronic technologies. Although recent research establishes an impressive variety of options in energy storage (batteries and supercapacitors) and generation (triboelectric, piezoelectric, thermoelectric, and photovoltaic devices), the modest electrical performance and/or the absence of soft, biocompatible mechanical properties limit their practical use. The results presented here form the basis of soft, skin-compatible means for efficient photovoltaic generation and high-capacity storage of electrical power using dual-junction, compound semiconductor solar cells and chip-scale, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, respectively. Miniaturized components, deformable interconnects, optimized array layouts, and dual-composition elastomer substrates, superstrates, and encapsulation layers represent key features. Systematic studies of the materials and mechanics identify optimized designs, including unusual configurations that exploit a folded, multilayer construct to improve the functional density without adversely affecting the soft, stretchable characteristics. System-level examples exploit such technologies in fully wireless sensors for precision skin thermography, with capabilities in continuous data logging and local processing, validated through demonstrations on volunteer subjects in various realistic scenarios. PMID:27185907

Sub-paresthesia spinal cord stimulation reverses thermal hyperalgesia and modulates low frequency EEG in a rat model of neuropathic pain.

PubMed

Koyama, Suguru; Xia, Jimmy; Leblanc, Brian W; Gu, Jianwen Wendy; Saab, Carl Y

2018-05-08

Paresthesia, a common feature of epidural spinal cord stimulation (SCS) for pain management, presents a challenge to the double-blind study design. Although sub-paresthesia SCS has been shown to be effective in alleviating pain, empirical criteria for sub-paresthesia SCS have not been established and its basic mechanisms of action at supraspinal levels are unknown. We tested our hypothesis that sub-paresthesia SCS attenuates behavioral signs of neuropathic pain in a rat model, and modulates pain-related theta (4-8 Hz) power of the electroencephalogram (EEG), a previously validated correlate of spontaneous pain in rodent models. Results show that sub-paresthesia SCS attenuates thermal hyperalgesia and power amplitude in the 3-4 Hz range, consistent with clinical data showing significant yet modest analgesic effects of sub-paresthesia SCS in humans. Therefore, we present evidence for anti-nociceptive effects of sub-paresthesia SCS in a rat model of neuropathic pain and further validate EEG theta power as a reliable 'biosignature' of spontaneous pain.

Merits of flywheels for spacecraft energy storage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, S.

1984-01-01

Flywheel energy storage systems which have a very good potential for use in spacecraft are discussed. This system can be superior to alkaline secondary batteries and regenerable fuel cells in most of the areas that are important in spacecraft applications. Of special importance, relative to batteries, are lighter weight, longer cycle and operating life, and high efficiency which minimizes solar array size and the amount of orbital makeup fuel required. Flywheel systems have a long shelf life, give a precise state of charge indication, have modest thermal control needs, are capable of multiple discharges per orbit, have simple ground handling needs, and have characteristics which would be useful for military applications. The major disadvantages of flywheel energy storage systems are that: power is not available during the launch phase without special provisions; and in flight failure of units may force shutdown of good counter rotating units, amplifying the effects of failure and limiting power distribution system options; no inherent emergency power capability unless specifically designed for, and a high level of complexity compared with batteries. The potential advantages of the flywheel energy storage system far outweigh the disadvantages.

Do Radio Jets Contribute to Driving Ionized Gas Outflows in Moderate Luminosity Type 2 AGN?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, Julia; Sajina, Anna; Lacy, Mark

2016-01-01

This poster examines the role of AGN-driven feedback in low to intermediate power radio galaxies. We begin with [OIII] measurements of ionized gas outflows in 29 moderate AGN-luminosity z~0.3-0.7 dust-obscured Type 2 AGN. We aim to examine the relative role of the AGN itself, of star-formation and of nascent radio jets in driving these outflows. The strength of the AGN and star formation are based on the [OIII] luminosities, and the far-IR luminosities respectively. For the radio jets, we present multi-frequency radio (X, S, and L-bands) JVLA imaging of our sample, which allows us both to constrain the overall radio power, but also look for signatures of young radio sources, including Giga-hertz Peaked Spectrum (GPS) sources, as well as small-scale jets. While radio jet-driven outflows are well known for powerful radio-loud galaxies, this study allows us to constrain the degree to which this mechanism is significant at more modest radio luminosities of L5GHz~10^22-25 W/Hz.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benford, James N.; Benford, Dominic J., E-mail: jimbenford@gmail.com

The most observable leakage radiation from an advanced civilization may well be from the use of power beaming to transfer energy and accelerate spacecraft. Applications suggested for power beaming involve launching spacecraft to orbit, raising satellites to a higher orbit, and interplanetary concepts involving space-to-space transfers of cargo or passengers. We also quantify beam-driven launch to the outer solar system, interstellar precursors, and ultimately starships. We estimate the principal observable parameters of power beaming leakage. Extraterrestrial civilizations would know their power beams could be observed, and so could put a message on the power beam and broadcast it for ourmore » receipt at little additional energy or cost. By observing leakage from power beams we may find a message embedded on the beam. Recent observations of the anomalous star KIC 8462852 by the Allen Telescope Array (ATA) set some limits on extraterrestrial power beaming in that system. We show that most power beaming applications commensurate with those suggested for our solar system would be detectable if using the frequency range monitored by the ATA, and so the lack of detection is a meaningful, if modest, constraint on extraterrestrial power beaming in that system. Until more extensive observations are made, the limited observation time and frequency coverage are not sufficiently broad in frequency and duration to produce firm conclusions. Such beams would be visible over large interstellar distances. This implies a new approach to the SETI search: instead of focusing on narrowband beacon transmissions generated by another civilization, look for more powerful beams with much wider bandwidth. This requires a new approach for their discovery by telescopes on Earth. Further studies of power beaming applications should be performed, potentially broadening the parameter space of the observable features that we have discussed here.« less

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan H.; Mills, Andrew; Seel, Joachim

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is amore » complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.« less

CONSTRAINING POLARIZED FOREGROUNDS FOR EoR EXPERIMENTS. I. 2D POWER SPECTRA FROM THE PAPER-32 IMAGING ARRAY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kohn, S. A.; Aguirre, J. E.; Moore, D. F.

2016-06-01

Current generation low-frequency interferometers constructed with the objective of detecting the high-redshift 21 cm background aim to generate power spectra of the brightness temperature contrast of neutral hydrogen in primordial intergalactic medium. Two-dimensional (2D) power spectra (power in Fourier modes parallel and perpendicular to the line of sight) that formed from interferometric visibilities have been shown to delineate a boundary between spectrally smooth foregrounds (known as the wedge ) and spectrally structured 21 cm background emission (the EoR window ). However, polarized foregrounds are known to possess spectral structure due to Faraday rotation, which can leak into the EoR window.more » In this work we create and analyze 2D power spectra from the PAPER-32 imaging array in Stokes I, Q, U, and V. These allow us to observe and diagnose systematic effects in our calibration at high signal-to-noise within the Fourier space most relevant to EoR experiments. We observe well-defined windows in the Stokes visibilities, with Stokes Q, U, and V power spectra sharing a similar wedge shape to that seen in Stokes I. With modest polarization calibration, we see no evidence that polarization calibration errors move power outside the wedge in any Stokes visibility to the noise levels attained. Deeper integrations will be required to confirm that this behavior persists to the depth required for EoR detection.« less

Limitations of experiments performed in artificially made OECD standard soils for predicting cadmium, lead and zinc toxicity towards organisms living in natural soils.

PubMed

Sydow, Mateusz; Chrzanowski, Łukasz; Cedergreen, Nina; Owsianiak, Mikołaj

2017-08-01

Development of comparative toxicity potentials of cationic metals in soils for applications in hazard ranking and toxic impact assessment is currently jeopardized by the availability of experimental effect data. To compensate for this deficiency, data retrieved from experiments carried out in standardized artificial soils, like OECD soils, could potentially be tapped as a source of effect data. It is, however, unknown whether such data are applicable to natural soils where the variability in pore water concentrations of dissolved base cations is large, and where mass transfer limitations of metal uptake can occur. Here, free ion activity models (FIAM) and empirical regression models (ERM, with pH as a predictor) were derived from total metal EC50 values (concentration with effects in 50% of individuals) using speciation for experiments performed in artificial OECD soils measuring ecotoxicological endpoints for terrestrial earthworms, potworms, and springtails. The models were validated by predicting total metal based EC50 values using backward speciation employing an independent set of natural soils with missing information about ionic composition of pore water, as retrieved from a literature review. ERMs performed better than FIAMs. Pearson's r for log 10 -transformed total metal based EC50s values (ERM) ranged from 0.25 to 0.74, suggesting a general correlation between predicted and measured values. Yet, root-mean-square-error (RMSE) ranged from 0.16 to 0.87 and was either smaller or comparable with the variability of measured EC50 values, suggesting modest performance. This modest performance was mainly due to the omission of pore water concentrations of base cations during model development and their validation, as verified by comparisons with predictions of published terrestrial biotic ligand models. Thus, the usefulness of data from artificial OECD soils for global-scale assessment of terrestrial ecotoxic impacts of Cd, Pb and Zn in soils is limited due to relatively small variability of pore water concentrations of dissolved base cations in OECD soils, preventing their inclusion in development of predictive models. Our findings stress the importance of considering differences in ionic composition of soil pore water when characterizing terrestrial ecotoxicity of cationic metals in natural soils. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

End-Tidal Carbon Dioxide Measurement during Pediatric Polysomnography: Signal Quality, Association with Apnea Severity, and Prediction of Neurobehavioral Outcomes

PubMed Central

Paruthi, Shalini; Rosen, Carol L.; Wang, Rui; Weng, Jia; Marcus, Carole L.; Chervin, Ronald D.; Stanley, Jeffrey J.; Katz, Eliot S.; Amin, Raouf; Redline, Susan

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: To identify the role of end-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) monitoring during polysomnography in evaluation of children with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS), including the correlation of EtCO2 with other measures of OSAS and prediction of changes in cognition and behavior after adenotonsillectomy. Design: Analysis of screening and endpoint data from the Childhood Adenotonsillectomy Trial, a randomized, controlled, multicenter study comparing early adenotonsillectomy (eAT) to watchful waiting/supportive care (WWSC) in children with OSAS. Setting: Multisite clinical referral settings. Participants: Children, ages 5.0 to 9.9 y with suspected sleep apnea. Interventions: eAT or WWSC. Measurements and Results: Quality EtCO2 waveforms were present for ≥ 75% of total sleep time (TST) in 876 of 960 (91.3%) screening polysomnograms. Among the 322 children who were randomized, 55 (17%) met pediatric criteria for hypoventilation. The mean TST with EtCO2 > 50 mmHg was modestly correlated with apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) (r = 0.33; P < 0.0001) and with oxygen saturation ≤ 92% (r = 0.26; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for AHI, obesity, and other factors, EtCO2 > 50 mmHg was higher in African American children than others. The TST with EtCO2 > 50 mmHg decreased significantly more after eAT than WWSC. In adjusted analyses, baseline TST with EtCO2 > 50 mmHg did not predict postoperative changes in cognitive and behavioral measurements. Conclusions: Among children with suspected obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, overnight end-tidal carbon dioxide (EtCO2) levels are weakly to modestly correlated with other polysomnographic indices and therefore provide independent information on hypoventilation. EtCO2 levels improve with adenotonsillectomy but are not as responsive as AHI and do not provide independent prediction of cognitive or behavioral response to surgery. Clinical Trial Registration: Childhood Adenotonsillectomy Study for Children with OSAS (CHAT). ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier #NCT00560859. Citation: Paruthi S, Rosen CL, Wang R, Weng J, Marcus CL, Chervin RD, Stanley JJ, Katz ES, Amin R, Redline S. End-tidal carbon dioxide measurement during pediatric polysomnography: signal quality, association with apnea severity, and prediction of neurobehavioral outcomes. SLEEP 2015;38(11):1719–1726. PMID:26414902

On the TRAIL to successful cancer therapy? Predicting and counteracting resistance against TRAIL-based therapeutics

PubMed Central

Dimberg, Lina Y.; Anderson, Charles K.; Camidge, Ross; Behbakht, Kian; Thorburn, Andrew; Ford, Heide L.

2015-01-01

TRAIL and agonistic antibodies against TRAIL death receptors kill tumor cells while causing virtually no damage to normal cells. Several novel drugs targeting TRAIL receptors are currently in clinical trials. However, TRAIL resistance is a common obstacle in TRAIL based therapy and limits the efficiency of these drugs. In this review article we discuss different mechanisms of TRAIL resistance and how they can be predicted and therapeutically circumvented. In addition, we provide a brief overview of all TRAIL based clinical trials conducted so far. It is apparent that although the effects of TRAIL therapy are disappointingly modest overall, a small subset of patients responds very well to TRAIL. We argue that the true potential of targeting TRAIL death receptors in cancer can only be reached when we find efficient ways to select for those patients that are most likely to benefit from the treatment. To achieve this, it is crucial to identify biomarkers that can help us predict TRAIL sensitivity. PMID:22580613

A principle of economy predicts the functional architecture of grid cells

PubMed Central

Wei, Xue-Xin; Prentice, Jason; Balasubramanian, Vijay

2015-01-01

Grid cells in the brain respond when an animal occupies a periodic lattice of ‘grid fields’ during navigation. Grids are organized in modules with different periodicity. We propose that the grid system implements a hierarchical code for space that economizes the number of neurons required to encode location with a given resolution across a range equal to the largest period. This theory predicts that (i) grid fields should lie on a triangular lattice, (ii) grid scales should follow a geometric progression, (iii) the ratio between adjacent grid scales should be √e for idealized neurons, and lie between 1.4 and 1.7 for realistic neurons, (iv) the scale ratio should vary modestly within and between animals. These results explain the measured grid structure in rodents. We also predict optimal organization in one and three dimensions, the number of modules, and, with added assumptions, the ratio between grid periods and field widths. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08362.001 PMID:26335200

Dendritic trafficking faces physiologically critical speed-precision tradeoffs

PubMed Central

Williams, Alex H; O'Donnell, Cian; Sejnowski, Terrence J; O'Leary, Timothy

2016-01-01

Nervous system function requires intracellular transport of channels, receptors, mRNAs, and other cargo throughout complex neuronal morphologies. Local signals such as synaptic input can regulate cargo trafficking, motivating the leading conceptual model of neuron-wide transport, sometimes called the ‘sushi-belt model’ (Doyle and Kiebler, 2011). Current theories and experiments are based on this model, yet its predictions are not rigorously understood. We formalized the sushi belt model mathematically, and show that it can achieve arbitrarily complex spatial distributions of cargo in reconstructed morphologies. However, the model also predicts an unavoidable, morphology dependent tradeoff between speed, precision and metabolic efficiency of cargo transport. With experimental estimates of trafficking kinetics, the model predicts delays of many hours or days for modestly accurate and efficient cargo delivery throughout a dendritic tree. These findings challenge current understanding of the efficacy of nucleus-to-synapse trafficking and may explain the prevalence of local biosynthesis in neurons. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20556.001 PMID:28034367

Predicting Depression and Anxiety from Oppositional Defiant Disorder Symptoms in Elementary School-Age Girls and Boys with Conduct Problems.

PubMed

Déry, Michèle; Lapalme, Mélanie; Jagiellowicz, Jadzia; Poirier, Martine; Temcheff, Caroline; Toupin, Jean

2017-02-01

This study investigated the relationship between the three DSM-5 categories of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms (irritable mood, defiant behavior, vindictive behavior) and anxiety/depression in girls and boys with conduct problems (CP) while controlling for comorbid child psychopathology at baseline. Data were drawn from an ongoing longitudinal study of 6- to 9-year-old French-Canadian children (N = 276; 40.8 % girls) receiving special educational services for CP at school and followed for 2 years. Using linear regression analysis, the results showed that irritable mood symptoms predicted a higher level of depression and anxiety in girls and boys 2 years later, whereas the behavioral symptoms of ODD (e.g., defiant, vindictive symptoms) were linked to lower depression scores. The contribution of ODD symptoms to these predictions, while statistically significant, remained modest. The usefulness of ODD irritable symptoms as a marker for identifying girls and boys with CP who are more vulnerable to developing internalizing problems is discussed.

The social perception of emotional abilities: expanding what we know about observer ratings of emotional intelligence.

PubMed

Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Barsade, Sigal G; Eisenkraft, Noah

2015-02-01

We examine the social perception of emotional intelligence (EI) through the use of observer ratings. Individuals frequently judge others' emotional abilities in real-world settings, yet we know little about the properties of such ratings. This article examines the social perception of EI and expands the evidence to evaluate its reliability and cross-judge agreement, as well as its convergent, divergent, and predictive validity. Three studies use real-world colleagues as observers and data from 2,521 participants. Results indicate significant consensus across observers about targets' EI, moderate but significant self-observer agreement, and modest but relatively consistent discriminant validity across the components of EI. Observer ratings significantly predicted interdependent task performance, even after controlling for numerous factors. Notably, predictive validity was greater for observer-rated than for self-rated or ability-tested EI. We discuss the minimal associations of observer ratings with ability-tested EI, study limitations, future directions, and practical implications. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

POWER/SSE Web Access Data

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-06-25

Description:  Obtain Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data The Prediction of Worldwide Energy ... (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current renewable energy data set and to create new data sets from new satellite ...

Research on prediction of agricultural machinery total power based on grey model optimized by genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Zhou, Jin; Zheng, Chang-zheng

2009-07-01

Agricultural machinery total power is an important index to reflex and evaluate the level of agricultural mechanization. It is the power source of agricultural production, and is the main factors to enhance the comprehensive agricultural production capacity expand production scale and increase the income of the farmers. Its demand is affected by natural, economic, technological and social and other "grey" factors. Therefore, grey system theory can be used to analyze the development of agricultural machinery total power. A method based on genetic algorithm optimizing grey modeling process is introduced in this paper. This method makes full use of the advantages of the grey prediction model and characteristics of genetic algorithm to find global optimization. So the prediction model is more accurate. According to data from a province, the GM (1, 1) model for predicting agricultural machinery total power was given based on the grey system theories and genetic algorithm. The result indicates that the model can be used as agricultural machinery total power an effective tool for prediction.

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosgaard, Martin; Giebel, Gregor; Skov Nielsen, Torben; Hahmann, Andrea; Sørensen, Poul; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The goal is to integrate a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. Using the state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP model Weather Research & Forecasting model (WRF) the forecast error is sought quantified in dependence of the time scale involved. This task constitutes a preparative study for later implementation of features accounting for NWP forecast errors in the DTU Wind Energy maintained Corwind code - a long term wind power planning tool. Within the framework of PSO 10464 research related to operational short term wind power prediction will be carried out, including a comparison of forecast quality at different mesoscale NWP model resolutions and development of a statistical wind power prediction tool taking input from WRF. The short term prediction part of the project is carried out in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a Danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. The integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated short term prediction tool constitutes scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish transmission system operator. The need for high accuracy predictions will only increase over the next decade as Denmark approaches the goal of 50% wind power based electricity in 2025 from the current 20%.

Method for predicting water demand for crop uses in New Jersey in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, and for estimating water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in New Jersey in 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clawges, R.M.; Titus, E.O.

1993-01-01

A method was developed to predict water demand for crop uses in New Jersey. A separate method was developed to estimate water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in 1987. Predictions of water demand for field- grown crops in New Jersey were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 under three climatological scenarios: (1) wet year, (2) average year, and (3) drought year. These estimates ranged from 4.10 times 10 to the 9th power to 16.82 times 10 to the 9th power gal (gallons). Irrigation amounts calculated for the three climatological scenarios by using a daily water-balance model were multiplied by predicted numbers of irrigated acreage. Irrigated acreage was predicted from historical crop-irrigation data and from predictions of harvested acreage produced by using a statistical model relating population to harvested acreage. Predictions of water demand for cranberries and container-grown nursery crops also were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Predictions of water demand under the three climatological scenarios were made for container- grown nursery crops, but not for cranberries, because water demand for cranberries varies little in response to climatological factors. Water demand for cranberries was predicted to remain constant at 4.43 times 10 to the 9th power gal through the year 2020. Predictions of water demand for container-grown nursery crops ranged from 1.89 times 10 to the 9th power to 3.63 times 10 to the 9th power gal. Water-use for livestock in 1987 was estimated to be 0.78 times 10 to the 9th power gal, and water use for selected sectors of the food-processing industry was estimated to be 3.75 times 10 to the 9th power gal.

Modest Little Ice Age cooling of the Western Tropical Atlantic inferred from Sr-U Coral Paleothermometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, A.; Cohen, A. L.; Oppo, D.; Gaetani, G. A.

2016-12-01

Proxy records of the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1450-1850CE) at high latitude Northern Hemisphere indicate temperatures 1-2°C cooler relative to the mid-20th century. However, estimates of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the western tropical Atlantic (WTA) range widely, indicating SSTs from 0- 4°C cooler than the mid-20th century. The largest of these cooling estimates indicate that the LIA tropics were more sensitive than the high latitudes, inconsistent with model predictions. Here we apply a novel coral thermometer, Sr-U, that has been demonstrated to accurately capture spatial and temporal variability across coral genera in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. A continuous section of reconstructed SSTs in the WTA (Puerto Rico) during the LIA (1465-1560CE) reveals a modest cooling relative to the late 20th century but no significant difference from the early 20th century prior. At this site sensitive to the modern Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) multidecadal variability was present during the LIA with amplitude comparable to the 20th century. Our record is consistent with weaker tropical sensitivity to external forcing than at higher latitudes during the LIA.

The predictive utility of neuropsychological symptom validity testing as it relates to psychological presentation.

PubMed

Zakzanis, Konstantine K; Gammada, Emnet; Jeffay, Eliyas

2012-01-01

The present study examined the relationship between multiple neuropsychological symptom validity tests (SVTs) and psychological presentation. More formally, we set out to determine if performance on neuropsychological SVTs was related to psychological symptom credibility and which specific neuropsychological SVTs were most associated with noncredible psychological presentation. Archival records from 106 litigating examinees were utilized in this study. Our results illustrate that neuropsychological SVTs are modestly related to psychological symptom credibility and that specific neuropsychological SVTs are variably associated to this end. We conclude that when multiple, but not independent, neuropsychological SVTs are employed within the context of a neuropsychological examination, they do have clinical utility as it relates to credibility of psychological presentation and these constructs do share variance reciprocally in clinically meaningful ways. When independently employed, however, the observed relationship is modest at best. Hence, to place clinical opinion on firmer scientific grounds within the context of a neuropsychological examination, multiple cognitive SVTs, in hand with psychological test instruments that include validity indexes, are essential to derive opinion that is based on science rather than faith in the instance of litigation when an incentive to manifest disability for the sake of an external reward holds probable.

Proliferative responses in the local lymph node assay associated with concomitant exposure to 1,4-phenylenediamine and methyldibromo glutaronitrile: evidence for synergy?

PubMed

Jowsey, Ian R; Basketter, David A; Irwin, Anita

2008-08-01

A key consideration when undertaking risk assessments should be the potential for synergy between contact allergens. Previously, this concept has only been investigated during elicitation in contact allergic individuals. To determine whether there exists evidence for synergy between contact allergens during the induction phase of skin sensitization using the mouse local lymph node assay (LLNA) as a model system. Proliferative responses in draining lymph nodes were assessed with increasing concentrations of 1,4-phenylenediamine (PPD), methyldibromo glutaronitrile (MDBGN), and a combination of PPD and MDBGN. Data from each of two independent experiments show that lymph node cell proliferation associated with combined exposure to PPD and MDBGN was, in general, only modestly increased relative to that predicted from a simple summation of their individual responses. Although the increase in response is very modest, it does imply a relationship between this combination of sensitizers that may not be simply additive in terms of their ability to stimulate proliferative responses in draining lymph nodes. The reproducibility of this observation should be confirmed in future studies with additional pairs of contact allergens to ascertain whether or not this represents evidence of synergy.

Parental lack of care and overprotection. Longitudinal associations with DSM-III-R disorders.

PubMed

Overbeek, Geertjan; ten Have, Margreet; Vollebergh, Wilma; de Graaf, Ron

2007-02-01

This study served to replicate and extend the findings from the National Comorbidity Survey [Enns MW, Cox BJ, Clara I (2002) Psychol Med 32:997-1008], in examining associations between recalled parental bonding and the prevalence and incidence of mental disorders in adulthood. Data were used from 4,796 adults aged 18-64, who had participated in three waves (i.e., 1996, 1997, and 1999) of a large-scale Dutch epidemiological study. Parental lack of care and overprotection were significantly associated with both prevalence and incidence of DSM-III-R disorders. However, the impact of parental bonding was modest, explaining only 1-5% of the variance in the occurrence and onset of psychopathology. Chi-square tests demonstrated there were no differences between the impact of paternal and maternal rearing behaviors on mental disorders, or between lack of care and overprotection in the prediction of mental disorders. Overall, individuals' recollections of parental lack of care and overprotection appear to be non-specifically, modestly related to the prevalence and incidence of DSM-III-R disorders in adults from the general population. Future research may examine indirect or mediated links between parental bonding and (clinical diagnoses of) mental health problems.

Psychosis prediction and clinical utility in familial high-risk studies: Selective review, synthesis, and implications for early detection and intervention

PubMed Central

Shah, Jai L.; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S.

2016-01-01

Aim Accurate prediction of which individuals will go on to develop psychosis would assist early intervention and prevention paradigms. We sought to review investigations of prospective psychosis prediction based on markers and variables examined in longitudinal familial high-risk (FHR) studies. Methods We performed literature searches in MedLine, PubMed and PsycINFO for articles assessing performance characteristics of predictive clinical tests in FHR studies of psychosis. Studies were included if they reported one or more predictive variables in subjects at FHR for psychosis. We complemented this search strategy with references drawn from articles, reviews, book chapters and monographs. Results Across generations of familial high-risk projects, predictive studies have investigated behavioral, cognitive, psychometric, clinical, neuroimaging, and other markers. Recent analyses have incorporated multivariate and multi-domain approaches to risk ascertainment, although with still generally modest results. Conclusions While a broad range of risk factors has been identified, no individual marker or combination of markers can at this time enable accurate prospective prediction of emerging psychosis for individuals at FHR. We outline the complex and multi-level nature of psychotic illness, the myriad of factors influencing its development, and methodological hurdles to accurate and reliable prediction. Prospects and challenges for future generations of FHR studies are discussed in the context of early detection and intervention strategies. PMID:23693118

Towards psychologically adaptive brain-computer interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myrden, A.; Chau, T.

2016-12-01

Objective. Brain-computer interface (BCI) performance is sensitive to short-term changes in psychological states such as fatigue, frustration, and attention. This paper explores the design of a BCI that can adapt to these short-term changes. Approach. Eleven able-bodied individuals participated in a study during which they used a mental task-based EEG-BCI to play a simple maze navigation game while self-reporting their perceived levels of fatigue, frustration, and attention. In an offline analysis, a regression algorithm was trained to predict changes in these states, yielding Pearson correlation coefficients in excess of 0.45 between the self-reported and predicted states. Two means of fusing the resultant mental state predictions with mental task classification were investigated. First, single-trial mental state predictions were used to predict correct classification by the BCI during each trial. Second, an adaptive BCI was designed that retrained a new classifier for each testing sample using only those training samples for which predicted mental state was similar to that predicted for the current testing sample. Main results. Mental state-based prediction of BCI reliability exceeded chance levels. The adaptive BCI exhibited significant, but practically modest, increases in classification accuracy for five of 11 participants and no significant difference for the remaining six despite a smaller average training set size. Significance. Collectively, these findings indicate that adaptation to psychological state may allow the design of more accurate BCIs.

Uniting Cheminformatics and Chemical Theory To Predict the Intrinsic Aqueous Solubility of Crystalline Druglike Molecules

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

We present four models of solution free-energy prediction for druglike molecules utilizing cheminformatics descriptors and theoretically calculated thermodynamic values. We make predictions of solution free energy using physics-based theory alone and using machine learning/quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models. We also develop machine learning models where the theoretical energies and cheminformatics descriptors are used as combined input. These models are used to predict solvation free energy. While direct theoretical calculation does not give accurate results in this approach, machine learning is able to give predictions with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ∼1.1 log S units in a 10-fold cross-validation for our Drug-Like-Solubility-100 (DLS-100) dataset of 100 druglike molecules. We find that a model built using energy terms from our theoretical methodology as descriptors is marginally less predictive than one built on Chemistry Development Kit (CDK) descriptors. Combining both sets of descriptors allows a further but very modest improvement in the predictions. However, in some cases, this is a statistically significant enhancement. These results suggest that there is little complementarity between the chemical information provided by these two sets of descriptors, despite their different sources and methods of calculation. Our machine learning models are also able to predict the well-known Solubility Challenge dataset with an RMSE value of 0.9–1.0 log S units. PMID:24564264

The role of self-construal in predicting self-presentational motives for online social network use in the UK and Japan.

PubMed

Long, Karen; Zhang, Xiao

2014-07-01

Self-presentational motives underlying online social network (OSN) use were explored in samples of British and Japanese users. Self-expression, maintaining privacy, and attention seeking were strong motives in both samples; impression management and modesty were less strongly endorsed. Measures of independent and interdependent self-construal, as well as narcissism and modesty, were investigated as potential predictors of these motivations. Independent self-construal emerged as the most important predictor across both samples, with less independent participants showing more concern with image management and modesty. Participants with more interdependent self-construals were more concerned about maintaining privacy. There were some differences in the patterns of prediction between the samples, but overall self-construal measures contributed to the explanation of the majority of the motivations, whereas narcissistic or modest personality variables did not.

Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

2016-06-30

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.

Predicting length of children's psychiatric hospitalizations: an "ecologic" approach.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Songer, D A; Baker, D G

1991-08-01

This article describes the development and validation of a simple and modestly successful model for predicting inpatient length of stay (LOS) at a state-funded facility providing acute to long term care for children and adolescents in Ohio. Six variables--diagnostic group, legal status at time of admission, attending physician, age, sex, and county of residence--explained 30% of the variation in log10LOS in the subgroup used to create the model, and 26% of log10LOS variation in the cross-validation subgroup. The model also identified LOS outliers with moderate accuracy (ROC area = .68-0.76). The authors attribute the model's success to inclusion of variables that are correlated to idiosyncratic "ecologic" factors as well as variables related to severity of illness. Future attempts to construct LOS models may adopt similar approaches.

Checkpoint repair for high-performance out-of-order execution machines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwu, W.M.W.; Patt, Y.N.

Out-or-order execution and branch prediction are two mechanisms that can be used profitably in the design of supercomputers to increase performance. Proper exception handling and branch prediction miss handling in an out-of-order execution machine to require some kind of repair mechanism which can restore the machine to a known previous state. In this paper the authors present a class of repair mechanisms using the concept of checkpointing. The authors derive several properties of checkpoint repair mechanisms. In addition, they provide algorithms for performing checkpoint repair that incur little overhead in time and modest cost in hardware, which also require nomore » additional complexity or time for use with write-back cache memory systems than they do with write-through cache memory systems, contrary to statements made by previous researchers.« less

Parametric bicubic spline and CAD tools for complex targets shape modelling in physical optics radar cross section prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delogu, A.; Furini, F.

1991-09-01

Increasing interest in radar cross section (RCS) reduction is placing new demands on theoretical, computation, and graphic techniques for calculating scattering properties of complex targets. In particular, computer codes capable of predicting the RCS of an entire aircraft at high frequency and of achieving RCS control with modest structural changes, are becoming of paramount importance in stealth design. A computer code, evaluating the RCS of arbitrary shaped metallic objects that are computer aided design (CAD) generated, and its validation with measurements carried out using ALENIA RCS test facilities are presented. The code, based on the physical optics method, is characterized by an efficient integration algorithm with error control, in order to contain the computer time within acceptable limits, and by an accurate parametric representation of the target surface in terms of bicubic splines.

Density Functional Theory and Beyond for Band-Gap Screening: Performance for Transition-Metal Oxides and Dichalcogenides.

PubMed

Li, Wenqing; Walther, Christian F J; Kuc, Agnieszka; Heine, Thomas

2013-07-09

The performance of a wide variety of commonly used density functionals, as well as two screened hybrid functionals (HSE06 and TB-mBJ), on predicting electronic structures of a large class of en vogue materials, such as metal oxides, chalcogenides, and nitrides, is discussed in terms of band gaps, band structures, and projected electronic densities of states. Contrary to GGA, hybrid functionals and GGA+U, both HSE06 and TB-mBJ are able to predict band gaps with an appreciable accuracy of 25% and thus allow the screening of various classes of transition-metal-based compounds, i.e., mixed or doped materials, at modest computational cost. The calculated electronic structures are largely unaffected by the choice of basis functions and software implementation, however, might be subject to the treatment of the core electrons.

United States direct broadcast satellite system development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dement, D. K.

1984-03-01

As the technology appears increasingly likely to meet the needs and as DBS regulatory activity becomes fixed, investment decisions will be made. With only modest technical risk for even the high-powered satellites, with little doubt that mass-produced earth terminals' gain-over-temperature of 10 dB or more can be attained for an acceptable price, and with the advent of acceptably priced individual descramblers for pay television, interest in DBS continues to grow. Present concerns center on market acceptance, competition, and programming availability. The variety of operational approaches revealed in FCC permit applications is seen as showing a willingness to risk, innovate, and move forward as quickly as possible.

Metallic Hydrogen: A Game Changing Rocket Propellant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silvera, Isaac F.

2016-01-01

The objective of this research is to produce metallic hydrogen in the laboratory using an innovative approach, and to study its metastability properties. Current theoretical and experimental considerations expect that extremely high pressures of order 4-6 megabar are required to transform molecular hydrogen to the metallic phase. When metallic hydrogen is produced in the laboratory it will be extremely important to determine if it is metastable at modest temperatures, i.e. remains metallic when the pressure is released. Then it could be used as the most powerful chemical rocket fuel that exists and revolutionize rocketry, allowing single-stage rockets to enter orbit and chemically fueled rockets to explore our solar system.

Defect States in Copper Indium Gallium Selenide Solar Cells from Two-Wavelength Excitation Photoluminescence Spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, Soren A.; Dippo, Patricia; Mansfield, Lorelle M.

2016-11-21

We use two-wavelength excitation photoluminescence spectroscopy to probe defect states in CIGS thin films. Above-Eg excitation is combined with a tunable IR bias light that modulates the population of the defect states. We find that IR illumination in the range of 1400-2000 nm (0.62-0.89 eV) causes a reduction of the PL intensity, the magnitude of which scales linearly with IR power. Further, KF post deposition treatment has only a modest influence on the effect of the IR excitation. Initial data suggest that we have developed an optical characterization tool for band-gap defect states.

NOAA's Van-Based Mobile Atmospheric Emissions Measurement Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dube, W. P.; Peischl, J.; Neuman, J. A.; Eilerman, S. J.; Holloway, M.; Roberts, O.; Aikin, K. C.; Ryerson, T. B.

2015-12-01

The Chemical Science Division (CSD) mobile atmospheric emissions measurement laboratory is the second and latest of two mobile measurement vans outfitted for atmospheric sampling by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. In this presentation we will describe the modifications made to this vehicle to provide a versatile and relatively inexpensive instrument platform including: the 2 kW 120 volt instrument power system; battery back-up system; data acquisition system; real-time display; meteorological, directional, and position sensor package; and the typical atmospheric emissions instrument package. The van conversion uses commercially available, off-the-shelf components from the marine and RV industries, thus keeping the costs quite modest.

Thermoelectric Waste Heat Recovery Program for Passenger Vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jovovic, Vladimir

2015-12-31

Gentherm began work in October 2011 to develop a Thermoelectric Waste Energy Recovery System for passenger vehicle applications. Partners in this program were BMW and Tenneco. Tenneco, in the role of TIER 1 supplier, developed the system-level packaging of the thermoelectric power generator. As the OEM, BMW Group demonstrated the TEG system in their vehicle in the final program phase. Gentherm demonstrated the performance of the TEG in medium duty and heavy duty vehicles. Technology developed and demonstrated in this program showed potential to reduce fuel consumption in medium and heavy duty vehicles. In light duty vehicles it showed moremore » modest potential.« less

Free as a bird - A point of view. [technical advance and humanistic aspects of aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, J. D.

1978-01-01

A number of ways are discussed in which ingenious people can further increase their enjoyment of experimenting in air (balloons, man-powered flight, etc.). For the lowest cost forms of flight, private sponsorship has been modestly successful. Much more could be done if people would not take themselves so seriously and always demand that advanced technology should serve some nationalistic or economic goals. For the society, the next step forward will perhaps originate if it is demonstrated to the government, manufacturers, and customers that private flying has become too costly due to those factors which limit the acquisition and introduction of new knowledge.

Variant effect prediction tools assessed using independent, functional assay-based datasets: implications for discovery and diagnostics.

PubMed

Mahmood, Khalid; Jung, Chol-Hee; Philip, Gayle; Georgeson, Peter; Chung, Jessica; Pope, Bernard J; Park, Daniel J

2017-05-16

Genetic variant effect prediction algorithms are used extensively in clinical genomics and research to determine the likely consequences of amino acid substitutions on protein function. It is vital that we better understand their accuracies and limitations because published performance metrics are confounded by serious problems of circularity and error propagation. Here, we derive three independent, functionally determined human mutation datasets, UniFun, BRCA1-DMS and TP53-TA, and employ them, alongside previously described datasets, to assess the pre-eminent variant effect prediction tools. Apparent accuracies of variant effect prediction tools were influenced significantly by the benchmarking dataset. Benchmarking with the assay-determined datasets UniFun and BRCA1-DMS yielded areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves in the modest ranges of 0.52 to 0.63 and 0.54 to 0.75, respectively, considerably lower than observed for other, potentially more conflicted datasets. These results raise concerns about how such algorithms should be employed, particularly in a clinical setting. Contemporary variant effect prediction tools are unlikely to be as accurate at the general prediction of functional impacts on proteins as reported prior. Use of functional assay-based datasets that avoid prior dependencies promises to be valuable for the ongoing development and accurate benchmarking of such tools.

Application of clustering analysis in the prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

2017-11-01

In order to select effective samples in the large number of data of PV power generation years and improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting model, this paper studies the application of clustering analysis in this field and establishes forecasting model based on neural network. Based on three different types of weather on sunny, cloudy and rainy days, this research screens samples of historical data by the clustering analysis method. After screening, it establishes BP neural network prediction models using screened data as training data. Then, compare the six types of photovoltaic power generation prediction models before and after the data screening. Results show that the prediction model combining with clustering analysis and BP neural networks is an effective method to improve the precision of photovoltaic power generation.

Integrated modelling of H-mode pedestal and confinement in JET-ILW

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saarelma, S.; Challis, C. D.; Garzotti, L.; Frassinetti, L.; Maggi, C. F.; Romanelli, M.; Stokes, C.; Contributors, JET

2018-01-01

A pedestal prediction model Europed is built on the existing EPED1 model by coupling it with core transport simulation using a Bohm-gyroBohm transport model to self-consistently predict JET-ILW power scan for hybrid plasmas that display weaker power degradation than the IPB98(y, 2) scaling of the energy confinement time. The weak power degradation is reproduced in the coupled core-pedestal simulation. The coupled core-pedestal model is further tested for a 3.0 MA plasma with the highest stored energy achieved in JET-ILW so far, giving a prediction of the stored plasma energy within the error margins of the measured experimental value. A pedestal density prediction model based on the neutral penetration is tested on a JET-ILW database giving a prediction with an average error of 17% from the experimental data when a parameter taking into account the fuelling rate is added into the model. However the model fails to reproduce the power dependence of the pedestal density implying missing transport physics in the model. The future JET-ILW deuterium campaign with increased heating power is predicted to reach plasma energy of 11 MJ, which would correspond to 11-13 MW of fusion power in equivalent deuterium-tritium plasma but with isotope effects on pedestal stability and core transport ignored.

A k-omega multivariate beta PDF for supersonic turbulent combustion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexopoulos, G. A.; Baurle, R. A.; Hassan, H. A.

1993-01-01

In a recent attempt by the authors at predicting measurements in coaxial supersonic turbulent reacting mixing layers involving H2 and air, a number of discrepancies involving the concentrations and their variances were noted. The turbulence model employed was a one-equation model based on the turbulent kinetic energy. This required the specification of a length scale. In an attempt at detecting the cause of the discrepancy, a coupled k-omega joint probability density function (PDF) is employed in conjunction with a Navier-Stokes solver. The results show that improvements resulting from a k-omega model are quite modest.

Computer simulation of space charge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, K. W.; Chung, W. K.; Mak, S. S.

1991-05-01

Using the particle-mesh (PM) method, a one-dimensional simulation of the well-known Langmuir-Child's law is performed on an INTEL 80386-based personal computer system. The program is coded in turbo basic (trademark of Borland International, Inc.). The numerical results obtained were in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions and the computational time required is quite modest. This simulation exercise demonstrates that some simple computer simulation using particles may be implemented successfully on PC's that are available today, and hopefully this will provide the necessary incentives for newcomers to the field who wish to acquire a flavor of the elementary aspects of the practice.

Internet-based system for simulation-based medical planning for cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Steele, Brooke N; Draney, Mary T; Ku, Joy P; Taylor, Charles A

2003-06-01

Current practice in vascular surgery utilizes only diagnostic and empirical data to plan treatments, which does not enable quantitative a priori prediction of the outcomes of interventions. We have previously described simulation-based medical planning methods to model blood flow in arteries and plan medical treatments based on physiologic models. An important consideration for the design of these patient-specific modeling systems is the accessibility to physicians with modest computational resources. We describe a simulation-based medical planning environment developed for the World Wide Web (WWW) using the Virtual Reality Modeling Language (VRML) and the Java programming language.

Subgrid or Reynolds stress-modeling for three-dimensional turbulence computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubesin, M. W.

1975-01-01

A review is given of recent advances in two distinct computational methods for evaluating turbulence fields, namely, statistical Reynolds stress modeling and turbulence simulation, where large eddies are followed in time. It is shown that evaluation of the mean Reynolds stresses, rather than use of a scalar eddy viscosity, permits an explanation of streamline curvature effects found in several experiments. Turbulence simulation, with a new volume averaging technique and third-order accurate finite-difference computing is shown to predict the decay of isotropic turbulence in incompressible flow with rather modest computer storage requirements, even at Reynolds numbers of aerodynamic interest.

A Modest Critical Pedagogy for English as a Foreign Language Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Mi Kyong; Pollard, Vikki Ann

2017-01-01

This paper uses the introduction of critical pedagogy to an English as a Foreign Language class in the Republic of Korea as a case study for a "modest critical pedagogy" (Tinning 2002). Focusing on the stress and resistances experienced during the introduction, we suggest a modest critical pedagogy that 1) makes the paradigm itself an…

Maximum predictive power and the superposition principle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Summhammer, Johann

1994-01-01

In quantum physics the direct observables are probabilities of events. We ask how observed probabilities must be combined to achieve what we call maximum predictive power. According to this concept the accuracy of a prediction must only depend on the number of runs whose data serve as input for the prediction. We transform each probability to an associated variable whose uncertainty interval depends only on the amount of data and strictly decreases with it. We find that for a probability which is a function of two other probabilities maximum predictive power is achieved when linearly summing their associated variables and transforming back to a probability. This recovers the quantum mechanical superposition principle.

A genome-wide association study implicates diacylglycerol kinase eta (DGKH) and several other genes in the etiology of bipolar disorder

PubMed Central

Baum, AE; Akula, N; Cabanero, M; Cardona, I; Corona, W; Klemens, B; Schulze, TG; Cichon, S; Rietschel, M; Nöthen, MM; Georgi, A; Schumacher, J; Schwarz, M; Jamra, R Abou; Höfels, S; Propping, P; Satagopan, J; Detera-Wadleigh, SD; Hardy, J; McMahon, FJ

2008-01-01

The genetic basis of bipolar disorder has long been thought to be complex, with the potential involvement of multiple genes, but methods to analyze populations with respect to this complexity have only recently become available. We have carried out a genome-wide association study of bipolar disorder by genotyping over 550,000 SNPs in two independent case-control samples of European origin. The initial association screen was performed using pooled DNA; selected SNPs were confirmed by individual genotyping. While DNA pooling reduces power to detect genetic associations, there is a substantial cost savings and gain in efficiency. A total of 88 SNPs representing 80 different genes met the prior criteria for replication in both samples. Effect sizes were modest: no single SNP of large effect was detected. Of 37 SNPs selected for individual genotyping, the strongest association signal was detected at a marker within the first intron of DGKH (p = 1.5 × 10−8, experiment-wide p<0.01, OR= 1.59). This gene encodes diacylglycerol kinase eta, a key protein in the lithium-sensitive phosphatidyl inositol pathway. This first genome-wide association study of bipolar disorder shows that several genes, each of modest effect, reproducibly influence disease risk. Bipolar disorder may be a polygenic disease. PMID:17486107

Nova Upgrade: A proposed ICF facility to demonstrate ignition and gain, revision 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1992-07-01

The present objective of the national Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) Program is to determine the scientific feasibility of compressing and heating a small mass of mixed deuterium and tritium (DT) to conditions at which fusion occurs and significant energy is released. The potential applications of ICF will be determined by the resulting fusion energy yield (amount of energy produced) and gain (ratio of energy released to energy required to heat and compress the DT fuel). Important defense and civilian applications, including weapons physics, weapons effects simulation, and ultimately the generation of electric power will become possible if yields of 100 to 1,000 MJ and gains exceeding approximately 50 can be achieved. Once ignition and propagating bum producing modest gain (2 to 10) at moderate drive energy (1 to 2 MJ) has been achieved, the extension to high gain (greater than 50) is straightforward. Therefore, the demonstration of ignition and modest gain is the final step in establishing the scientific feasibility of ICF. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) proposes the Nova Upgrade Facility to achieve this demonstration by the end of the decade. This facility would be constructed within the existing Nova building at LLNL for a total cost of approximately $400 M over the proposed FY 1995-1999 construction period. This report discusses this facility.

The genetic basis of speciation in the Giliopsis lineage of Ipomopsis (Polemoniaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nakazato, Takuya; Rieseberg, Loren H.; Wood, Troy E.

2013-01-01

One of the most powerful drivers of speciation in plants is pollinator-mediated disruptive selection, which leads to the divergence of floral traits adapted to the morphology and behavior of different pollinators. Despite the widespread importance of this speciation mechanism, its genetic basis has been explored in only a few groups. Here, we characterize the genetic basis of pollinator-mediated divergence of two species in genus Ipomopsis, I. guttata and I. tenuifolia, using quantitative trait locus (QTL) analyses of floral traits and other variable phenotypes. We detected one to six QTLs per trait, with each QTL generally explaining small to modest amounts of the phenotypic variance of a backcross hybrid population. In contrast, flowering time and anthocyanin abundance (a metric of color variation) were controlled by a few QTLs of relatively large effect. QTLs were strongly clustered within linkage groups, with 26 of 37 QTLs localized to six marker-interval ‘hotspots,’ all of which harbored pleiotropic QTLs. In contrast to other studies that have examined the genetic basis of pollinator shifts, our results indicate that, in general, mutations of small to modest effect on phenotype were involved. Thus, the evolutionary transition between the distinct pollination modes of I. guttata and I. tenuifolia likely proceeded incrementally, rather than saltationally.

Hormone therapy in menopausal women with cognitive complaints: a randomized, double-blind trial.

PubMed

Maki, P M; Gast, M J; Vieweg, A J; Burriss, S W; Yaffe, K

2007-09-25

To evaluate the effects of hormone therapy (HT) on cognition and subjective quality of life (QoL) in recently postmenopausal women with cognitive complaints. Cognitive Complaints in Early Menopause Trial (COGENT) was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter, pilot study of 180 healthy postmenopausal women aged 45 to 55 years, randomly assigned to receive either placebo or conjugated equine estrogen 0.625 mg/medroxyprogesterone acetate 2.5 mg for 4 months. Outcome measures included memory, subjective cognition, QoL, sexuality, and sleep, which were assessed at baseline and month 4. The study was terminated before the expected final sample size of 275 due to a decrease in enrollment coinciding with the publication of findings from the Women's Health Initiative. There were no differences between groups on any cognitive or QoL measures, except for an increase in sexual interest and thoughts with HT. Modest negative effects on short- and long-term verbal memory approached significance (p < 0.10). Women with baseline vasomotor symptoms (VMS) showed a decrease in VMS and an improvement in general QoL, but no cognitive benefit vs placebo. With the power to detect an effect size of >or=0.45, this study suggests potential modest negative effects on verbal memory that are consistent with previous hormone therapy trials in older women.

Applications of the Magnetocaloric Effect in Single-Stage, Multi-Stage and Continuous Adiabatic Demagnetization Refrigerators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shirron, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Adiabatic demagnetization refrigerators (ADR), based on the magnetocaloric effect, are solid-state coolers that were the first to achieve cooling well into the sub-kelvin regime. Although supplanted by more powerful dilution refrigerators in the 1960s, ADRs have experienced a revival due to the needs of the space community for cooling astronomical instruments and detectors to temperatures below 100 mK. The earliest of these were single-stage refrigerators using superfluid helium as a heat sink. Their modest cooling power (<1 µW at 60 mK[1]) was sufficient for the small (6x6) detector arrays[2], but recent advances in arraying and multiplexing technologies[3] are generating a need for higher cooling power (5-10 µW), and lower temperature (<30 mK). Single-stage ADRs have both practical and fundamental limits to their operating range, as mass grows very rapidly as the operating range is expanded. This has led to the development of new architectures that introduce multi-staging as a way to improve operating range, efficiency and cooling power. Multi-staging also enables ADRs to be configured for continuous operation, which greatly improves cooling power per unit mass. This paper reviews the current field of adiabatic demagnetization refrigeration, beginning with a description of the magnetocaloric effect and its application in single-stage systems, and then describing the challenges and capabilities of multi-stage and continuous ADRs.

Does Spontaneous Favorability to Power (vs. Universalism) Values Predict Spontaneous Prejudice and Discrimination?

PubMed

Souchon, Nicolas; Maio, Gregory R; Hanel, Paul H P; Bardin, Brigitte

2017-10-01

We conducted five studies testing whether an implicit measure of favorability toward power over universalism values predicts spontaneous prejudice and discrimination. Studies 1 (N = 192) and 2 (N = 86) examined correlations between spontaneous favorability toward power (vs. universalism) values, achievement (vs. benevolence) values, and a spontaneous measure of prejudice toward ethnic minorities. Study 3 (N = 159) tested whether conditioning participants to associate power values with positive adjectives and universalism values with negative adjectives (or inversely) affects spontaneous prejudice. Study 4 (N = 95) tested whether decision bias toward female handball players could be predicted by spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values. Study 5 (N = 123) examined correlations between spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values, spontaneous importance toward power (vs. universalism) values, and spontaneous prejudice toward Black African people. Spontaneous positivity toward power (vs. universalism) values was associated with spontaneous negativity toward minorities and predicted gender bias in a decision task, whereas the explicit measures did not. These results indicate that the implicit assessment of evaluative responses attached to human values helps to model value-attitude-behavior relations. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Personality Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Electric Power Engineering Cost Predicting Model Based on the PCA-GA-BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Lei; Yu, Jiake; Zhao, Xin

2017-10-01

In this paper a hybrid prediction algorithm: PCA-GA-BP model is proposed. PCA algorithm is established to reduce the correlation between indicators of original data and decrease difficulty of BP neural network in complex dimensional calculation. The BP neural network is established to estimate the cost of power transmission project. The results show that PCA-GA-BP algorithm can improve result of prediction of electric power engineering cost.

Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

DOE PAGES

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

2017-09-10

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

Improved techniques for predicting spacecraft power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chmielewski, A. B.

1987-01-01

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are going to supply power for the NASA Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft now scheduled to be launched in 1989 and 1990. The duration of the Galileo mission is expected to be over 8 years. This brings the total RTG lifetime to 13 years. In 13 years, the RTG power drops more than 20 percent leaving a very small power margin over what is consumed by the spacecraft. Thus it is very important to accurately predict the RTG performance and be able to assess the magnitude of errors involved. The paper lists all the error sources involved in the RTG power predictions and describes a statistical method for calculating the tolerance.

ESB-based Sensor Web integration for the prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability.

PubMed

Stoimenov, Leonid; Bogdanovic, Milos; Bogdanovic-Dinic, Sanja

2013-08-15

Electric power supply companies increasingly rely on enterprise IT systems to provide them with a comprehensive view of the state of the distribution network. Within a utility-wide network, enterprise IT systems collect data from various metering devices. Such data can be effectively used for the prediction of power supply network vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present the Enterprise Service Bus (ESB)-based Sensor Web integration solution that we have developed with the purpose of enabling prediction of power supply network vulnerability, in terms of a prediction of defect probability for a particular network element. We will give an example of its usage and demonstrate our vulnerability prediction model on data collected from two different power supply companies. The proposed solution is an extension of the GinisSense Sensor Web-based architecture for collecting, processing, analyzing, decision making and alerting based on the data received from heterogeneous data sources. In this case, GinisSense has been upgraded to be capable of operating in an ESB environment and combine Sensor Web and GIS technologies to enable prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability. Aside from electrical values, the proposed solution gathers ambient values from additional sensors installed in the existing power supply network infrastructure. GinisSense aggregates gathered data according to an adapted Omnibus data fusion model and applies decision-making logic on the aggregated data. Detected vulnerabilities are visualized to end-users through means of a specialized Web GIS application.

ESB-Based Sensor Web Integration for the Prediction of Electric Power Supply System Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Stoimenov, Leonid; Bogdanovic, Milos; Bogdanovic-Dinic, Sanja

2013-01-01

Electric power supply companies increasingly rely on enterprise IT systems to provide them with a comprehensive view of the state of the distribution network. Within a utility-wide network, enterprise IT systems collect data from various metering devices. Such data can be effectively used for the prediction of power supply network vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present the Enterprise Service Bus (ESB)-based Sensor Web integration solution that we have developed with the purpose of enabling prediction of power supply network vulnerability, in terms of a prediction of defect probability for a particular network element. We will give an example of its usage and demonstrate our vulnerability prediction model on data collected from two different power supply companies. The proposed solution is an extension of the GinisSense Sensor Web-based architecture for collecting, processing, analyzing, decision making and alerting based on the data received from heterogeneous data sources. In this case, GinisSense has been upgraded to be capable of operating in an ESB environment and combine Sensor Web and GIS technologies to enable prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability. Aside from electrical values, the proposed solution gathers ambient values from additional sensors installed in the existing power supply network infrastructure. GinisSense aggregates gathered data according to an adapted Omnibus data fusion model and applies decision-making logic on the aggregated data. Detected vulnerabilities are visualized to end-users through means of a specialized Web GIS application. PMID:23955435

Power quality analysis based on spatial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiangtao; Zhao, Gang; Liu, Haibo; Li, Fenghou; Liu, Xiaoli

2018-03-01

With the industrialization and urbanization, the status of electricity in the production and life is getting higher and higher. So the prediction of power quality is the more potential significance. Traditional power quality analysis methods include: power quality data compression, disturbance event pattern classification, disturbance parameter calculation. Under certain conditions, these methods can predict power quality. This paper analyses the temporal variation of power quality of one provincial power grid in China from time angle. The distribution of power quality was analyzed based on spatial autocorrelation. This paper tries to prove that the research idea of geography is effective for mining the potential information of power quality.

Improved prediction of residue flexibility by embedding optimized amino acid grouping into RSA-based linear models.

PubMed

Zhang, Hua; Kurgan, Lukasz

2014-12-01

Knowledge of protein flexibility is vital for deciphering the corresponding functional mechanisms. This knowledge would help, for instance, in improving computational drug design and refinement in homology-based modeling. We propose a new predictor of the residue flexibility, which is expressed by B-factors, from protein chains that use local (in the chain) predicted (or native) relative solvent accessibility (RSA) and custom-derived amino acid (AA) alphabets. Our predictor is implemented as a two-stage linear regression model that uses RSA-based space in a local sequence window in the first stage and a reduced AA pair-based space in the second stage as the inputs. This method is easy to comprehend explicit linear form in both stages. Particle swarm optimization was used to find an optimal reduced AA alphabet to simplify the input space and improve the prediction performance. The average correlation coefficients between the native and predicted B-factors measured on a large benchmark dataset are improved from 0.65 to 0.67 when using the native RSA values and from 0.55 to 0.57 when using the predicted RSA values. Blind tests that were performed on two independent datasets show consistent improvements in the average correlation coefficients by a modest value of 0.02 for both native and predicted RSA-based predictions.

Observational attachment theory-based parenting measures predict children's attachment narratives independently from social learning theory-based measures.

PubMed

Matias, Carla; O'Connor, Thomas G; Futh, Annabel; Scott, Stephen

2014-01-01

Conceptually and methodologically distinct models exist for assessing quality of parent-child relationships, but few studies contrast competing models or assess their overlap in predicting developmental outcomes. Using observational methodology, the current study examined the distinctiveness of attachment theory-based and social learning theory-based measures of parenting in predicting two key measures of child adjustment: security of attachment narratives and social acceptance in peer nominations. A total of 113 5-6-year-old children from ethnically diverse families participated. Parent-child relationships were rated using standard paradigms. Measures derived from attachment theory included sensitive responding and mutuality; measures derived from social learning theory included positive attending, directives, and criticism. Child outcomes were independently-rated attachment narrative representations and peer nominations. Results indicated that Attachment theory-based and Social Learning theory-based measures were modestly correlated; nonetheless, parent-child mutuality predicted secure child attachment narratives independently of social learning theory-based measures; in contrast, criticism predicted peer-nominated fighting independently of attachment theory-based measures. In young children, there is some evidence that attachment theory-based measures may be particularly predictive of attachment narratives; however, no single model of measuring parent-child relationships is likely to best predict multiple developmental outcomes. Assessment in research and applied settings may benefit from integration of different theoretical and methodological paradigms.

Ultrasound generation with high power and coil only EMAT concepts.

PubMed

Rueter, Dirk; Morgenstern, Tino

2014-12-01

Electro-magnetic acoustic transducers (EMATs) are intended as non-contact and non-destructive ultrasound transducers for metallic material. The transmitted intensities from EMATS are modest, particularly at notable lift off distances. Some time ago a concept for a "coil only EMAT" was presented, without static magnetic field. In this contribution, such compact "coil only EMATs" with effective areas of 1-5cm(2) were driven to excessive power levels at MHz frequencies, using pulsed power technologies. RF induction currents of 10kA and tens of Megawatts are applied. With increasing power the electroacoustic conversion efficiency also increases. The total effect is of second order or quadratic, therefore non-linear and progressive, and yields strong ultrasound signals up to kW/cm(2) at MHz frequencies in the metal. Even at considerable lift off distances (cm) the ultrasound can be readily detected. Test materials are aluminum, ferromagnetic steel and stainless steel (non-ferromagnetic). Thereby, most metal types are represented. The technique is compared experimentally with other non-contact methods: laser pulse induced ultrasound and spark induced ultrasound, both damaging to the test object's surface. At small lift off distances, the intensity from this EMAT concept clearly outperforms the laser pulses or heavy spark impacts. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design of the ITER Electron Cyclotron Heating and Current Drive Waveguide Transmission Line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigelow, T. S.; Rasmussen, D. A.; Shapiro, M. A.; Sirigiri, J. R.; Temkin, R. J.; Grunloh, H.; Koliner, J.

2007-11-01

The ITER ECH transmission line system is designed to deliver the power, from twenty-four 1 MW 170 GHz gyrotrons and three 1 MW 127.5 GHz gyrotrons, to the equatorial and upper launchers. The performance requirements, initial design of components and layout between the gyrotrons and the launchers is underway. Similar 63.5 mm ID corrugated waveguide systems have been built and installed on several fusion experiments; however, none have operated at the high frequency and long-pulse required for ITER. Prototype components are being tested at low power to estimate ohmic and mode conversion losses. In order to develop and qualify the ITER components prior to procurement of the full set of 24 transmission lines, a 170 GHz high power test of a complete prototype transmission line is planned. Testing of the transmission line at 1-2 MW can be performed with a modest power (˜0.5 MW) tube with a low loss (10-20%) resonant ring configuration. A 140 GHz long pulse, 400 kW gyrotron will be used in the initial tests and a 170 GHz gyrotron will be used when it becomes available. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the U.S. Dept. of Energy under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.

Two-tank working gas storage system for heat engine

DOEpatents

Hindes, Clyde J.

1987-01-01

A two-tank working gas supply and pump-down system is coupled to a hot gas engine, such as a Stirling engine. The system has a power control valve for admitting the working gas to the engine when increased power is needed, and for releasing the working gas from the engine when engine power is to be decreased. A compressor pumps the working gas that is released from the engine. Two storage vessels or tanks are provided, one for storing the working gas at a modest pressure (i.e., half maximum pressure), and another for storing the working gas at a higher pressure (i.e., about full engine pressure). Solenoid valves are associated with the gas line to each of the storage vessels, and are selectively actuated to couple the vessels one at a time to the compressor during pumpdown to fill the high-pressure vessel with working gas at high pressure and then to fill the low-pressure vessel with the gas at low pressure. When more power is needed, the solenoid valves first supply the low-pressure gas from the low-pressure vessel to the engine and then supply the high-pressure gas from the high-pressure vessel. The solenoid valves each act as a check-valve when unactuated, and as an open valve when actuated.

2014 Wind Technologies Market Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Barbose, Galen

Wind power capacity additions in the United States rebounded in 2014, and continued growth through 2016 is anticipated. Recent and projected near-term growth is supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—which is available for projects that began construction by the end of 2014. Wind additions are also being driven by recent improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies, which have resulted in the lowest power sales prices ever seen in the U.S. wind sector. Growing corporate demand for wind energy and state-level policies play important roles as well. Expectations for continued technological advancementsmore » and cost reductions may further boost future growth. At the same time, the prospects for growth beyond 2016 are uncertain. The PTC has expired, and its renewal remains in question. Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on growth expectations. These trends, in combination with increasingly global supply chains, have limited the growth of domestic manufacturing of wind equipment. What they mean for wind power additions through the end of the decade and beyond will be dictated in part by future natural gas prices, fossil plant retirements, and policy decisions.« less

Kernel Machine SNP-set Testing under Multiple Candidate Kernels

PubMed Central

Wu, Michael C.; Maity, Arnab; Lee, Seunggeun; Simmons, Elizabeth M.; Harmon, Quaker E.; Lin, Xinyi; Engel, Stephanie M.; Molldrem, Jeffrey J.; Armistead, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Joint testing for the cumulative effect of multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms grouped on the basis of prior biological knowledge has become a popular and powerful strategy for the analysis of large scale genetic association studies. The kernel machine (KM) testing framework is a useful approach that has been proposed for testing associations between multiple genetic variants and many different types of complex traits by comparing pairwise similarity in phenotype between subjects to pairwise similarity in genotype, with similarity in genotype defined via a kernel function. An advantage of the KM framework is its flexibility: choosing different kernel functions allows for different assumptions concerning the underlying model and can allow for improved power. In practice, it is difficult to know which kernel to use a priori since this depends on the unknown underlying trait architecture and selecting the kernel which gives the lowest p-value can lead to inflated type I error. Therefore, we propose practical strategies for KM testing when multiple candidate kernels are present based on constructing composite kernels and based on efficient perturbation procedures. We demonstrate through simulations and real data applications that the procedures protect the type I error rate and can lead to substantially improved power over poor choices of kernels and only modest differences in power versus using the best candidate kernel. PMID:23471868

Predicting power-optimal kinematics of avian wings

PubMed Central

Parslew, Ben

2015-01-01

A theoretical model of avian flight is developed which simulates wing motion through a class of methods known as predictive simulation. This approach uses numerical optimization to predict power-optimal kinematics of avian wings in hover, cruise, climb and descent. The wing dynamics capture both aerodynamic and inertial loads. The model is used to simulate the flight of the pigeon, Columba livia, and the results are compared with previous experimental measurements. In cruise, the model unearths a vast range of kinematic modes that are capable of generating the required forces for flight. The most efficient mode uses a near-vertical stroke–plane and a flexed-wing upstroke, similar to kinematics recorded experimentally. In hover, the model predicts that the power-optimal mode uses an extended-wing upstroke, similar to hummingbirds. In flexing their wings, pigeons are predicted to consume 20% more power than if they kept their wings full extended, implying that the typical kinematics used by pigeons in hover are suboptimal. Predictions of climbing flight suggest that the most energy-efficient way to reach a given altitude is to climb as steeply as possible, subjected to the availability of power. PMID:25392398

Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level using the room equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwal, M.; Bernhard, R.

1984-01-01

The room equation is investigated for predicting interior sound level. The method makes use of an acoustic power balance, by equating net power flow into the cabin volume to power dissipated within the cabin using the room equation. The sound power level transmitted through the panels was calculated by multiplying the measured space averaged transmitted intensity for each panel by its surface area. The sound pressure level was obtained by summing the mean square sound pressures radiated from each panel. The data obtained supported the room equation model in predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level.

Multi-Temporal Decomposed Wind and Load Power Models for Electric Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Karim, Noha

This thesis is motivated by the recognition that sources of uncertainties in electric power systems are multifold and may have potentially far-reaching effects. In the past, only system load forecast was considered to be the main challenge. More recently, however, the uncertain price of electricity and hard-to-predict power produced by renewable resources, such as wind and solar, are making the operating and planning environment much more challenging. The near-real-time power imbalances are compensated by means of frequency regulation and generally require fast-responding costly resources. Because of this, a more accurate forecast and look-ahead scheduling would result in a reduced need for expensive power balancing. Similarly, long-term planning and seasonal maintenance need to take into account long-term demand forecast as well as how the short-term generation scheduling is done. The better the demand forecast, the more efficient planning will be as well. Moreover, computer algorithms for scheduling and planning are essential in helping the system operators decide what to schedule and planners what to build. This is needed given the overall complexity created by different abilities to adjust the power output of generation technologies, demand uncertainties and by the network delivery constraints. Given the growing presence of major uncertainties, it is likely that the main control applications will use more probabilistic approaches. Today's predominantly deterministic methods will be replaced by methods which account for key uncertainties as decisions are made. It is well-understood that although demand and wind power cannot be predicted at very high accuracy, taking into consideration predictions and scheduling in a look-ahead way over several time horizons generally results in more efficient and reliable utilization, than when decisions are made assuming deterministic, often worst-case scenarios. This change is in approach is going to ultimately require new electricity market rules capable of providing the right incentives to manage uncertainties and of differentiating various technologies according to the rate at which they can respond to ever changing conditions. Given the overall need for modeling uncertainties in electric energy systems, we consider in this thesis the problem of multi-temporal modeling of wind and demand power, in particular. Historic data is used to derive prediction models for several future time horizons. Short-term prediction models derived can be used for look-ahead economic dispatch and unit commitment, while the long-term annual predictive models can be used for investment planning. As expected, the accuracy of such predictive models depends on the time horizons over which the predictions are made, as well as on the nature of uncertain signals. It is shown that predictive models obtained using the same general modeling approaches result in different accuracy for wind than for demand power. In what follows, we introduce several models which have qualitatively different patterns, ranging from hourly to annual. We first transform historic time-stamped data into the Fourier Transform (Fr) representation. The frequency domain data representation is used to decompose the wind and load power signals and to derive predictive models relevant for short-term and long-term predictions using extracted spectral techniques. The short-term results are interpreted next as a Linear Prediction Coding Model (LPC) and its accuracy is analyzed. Next, a new Markov-Based Sensitivity Model (MBSM) for short term prediction has been proposed and the dispatched costs of uncertainties for different predictive models with comparisons have been developed. Moreover, the Discrete Markov Process (DMP) representation is applied to help assess probabilities of most likely short-, medium- and long-term states and the related multi-temporal risks. In addition, this thesis discusses operational impacts of wind power integration in different scenario levels by performing more than 9,000 AC Optimal Power Flow runs. The effects of both wind and load variations on system constraints and costs are presented. The limitations of DC Optimal Power Flow (DCOPF) vs. ACOPF are emphasized by means of system convergence problems due to the effect of wind power on changing line flows and net power injections. By studying the effect of having wind power on line flows, we found that the divergence problem applies in areas with high wind and hydro generation capacity share (cheap generations). (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

The effects of load on system and lower-body joint kinetics during jump squats.

PubMed

Moir, Gavin L; Gollie, Jared M; Davis, Shala E; Guers, John J; Witmer, Chad A

2012-11-01

To investigate the effects of different loads on system and lower-body kinetics during jump squats, 12 resistance-trained men performed jumps under different loading conditions: 0%, 12%, 27%, 42%, 56%, 71%, and 85% of 1-repetition maximum (1-RM). System power output was calculated as the product of the vertical component of the ground reaction force and the vertical velocity of the bar during its ascent. Joint power output was calculated during bar ascent for the hip, knee, and ankle joints, and was also summed across the joints. System power output and joint power at knee and ankle joints were maximized at 0% 1-RM (p < 0.001) and followed the linear trends (p < 0.001) caused by power output decreasing as the load increased. Power output at the hip was maximized at 42% 1-RM (p = 0.016) and followed a quadratic trend (p = 0.030). Summed joint power could be predicted from system power (p < 0.05), while system power could predict power at the knee and ankle joints under some of the loading conditions. Power at the hip could not be predicted from system power. System power during loaded jumps reflects the power at the knee and ankle, while power at the hip does not correspond to system power.

Wind farms production: Control and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect and the time delay of the incident wind speed of the different turbines on the farm, and to simulate the fluctuation in the generated power more accurately and more closer to real-time operation. Recently, wind farms with considerable output power ratings have been installed. Their integrating into the utility grid will substantially affect the electricity markets. This thesis investigates the possible impact of wind power variability, wind farm control strategy, wind energy penetration level, wind farm location, and wind power prediction accuracy on the total generation costs and close to real time electricity market prices. These issues are addressed by developing a single auction market model for determining the real-time electricity market prices.

Polarisation Spectral Synthesis For Type Ia Supernova Explosion Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulla, Mattia

2017-02-01

Despite their relevance across a broad range of astrophysical research topics, Type Ia supernova explosions are still poorly understood and answers to the questions of when, why and how these events are triggered remain unclear. In this respect, polarisation offers a unique opportunity to discriminate between the variety of possible scenarios. The observational evidence that Type Ia supernovae are associated with rather low polarisation signals (smaller than a few per cent) places strong constraints for models and calls for modest asphericities in the progenitor system and/or explosion mechanism.The goal of this thesis is to assess the validity of contemporary Type Ia supernova explosion models by testing whether their predicted polarisation signatures can account for the small signals usually observed. To this end, we have implemented and tested an innovative Monte Carlo scheme in the radiative transfer code artis. Compared to previous Monte Carlo approaches, this technique produces synthetic observables (light curves, flux and polarisation spectra) with a substantial reduction in the Monte Carlo noise and therefore in the required computing time. This improvement is particularly crucial for our study as we aim to extract very weak polarisation signals, comparable to those detected in Type Ia supernovae. We have also demonstrated the applicability of this method to other classes of supernovae via a preliminary study of the first spectropolarimetry observations of superluminous supernovae.Using this scheme, we have calculated synthetic spectropolarimetry for three multi-dimensional explosion models recently proposed as promising candidates to explain Type Ia supernovae. Our findings highlight the power of spectropolarimetry in testing and discriminating between different scenarios. While all the three models predict light curves and flux spectra that are similar to each others and reproduce those observed in Type Ia supernovae comparably well, polarisation does provide a clear distinction. In particular, we find that one model is too strongly asymmetric and produces polarisation levels that are too high and clearly inconsistent with those detected for the bulk of Type Ia supernovae. Polarisation signals - and their time evolution - extracted for the remaining two models are instead in good agreement with the currently available spectropolarimetry data. Providing a powerful way to connect hydrodynamic explosion models to observed data, the study presented in this thesis is an important step towards a better understanding of Type Ia supernovae from a synthesis of theory and observations.

Replacement of SSE (Release 6) with NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project GIS-enabled Web Data Portal:

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-03-15

... effort has been developed under the Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project funded largely by NASA Earth Applied Sciences ... to NASA's satellite and modeling analysis for Renewable Energy, Sustainable Buildings and Agroclimatology applications.  A new POWER ...

POWER/SSE

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-06-15

... The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current SSE ... continue to be focussed on the solar and wind Renewable Energy industry. New data sets will target Sustainable Buildings ... The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current SSE ...

Pregnancy Complications as Markers for Subsequent Maternal Cardiovascular Disease: Validation of a Maternal Recall Questionnaire

PubMed Central

Stuart, Jennifer J.; Farland, Leslie V.; Rich-Edwards, Janet W.; Zera, Chloe A.; McElrath, Thomas F.; Seely, Ellen W.

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: We designed and tested the validity of a questionnaire to characterize maternal recall of pregnancy complications associated with increased future cardiovascular disease risk, based on the 2011 American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines. Methods: A maternal recall questionnaire of pregnancy history was administered to 971 patients who had participated in a previous cohort study of 1,608 pregnant women. Medical records from the study pregnancy served as the gold standard. Prevalence, sensitivity (sens), specificity (spec), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and/or Spearman's correlation coefficients (r) were calculated for each question. Results: A total of 526 (54%) individuals recontacted responded. Respondents were more likely to be older, white, educated, and nulliparous and were less likely to deliver low-birthweight infants in the study pregnancy than were individuals who did not respond. Mean length of recall was 4.35 years (standard deviation [SD] 0.46) postpartum. Maternal recall was most accurate for gestational diabetes (sens: 92%, spec: 98%, PPV: 79%, NPV: 99%), infant birthweight (r=0.95), and gestation length (r=0.85). Maternal recall was modest for preeclampsia (sens: 79%, spec: 97%, PPV: 68%, NPV: 98%) and pregnancy-associated hypertension, including preeclampsia or gestational hypertension (sens: 60%, spec: 95%, PPV: 64%, NPV: 94%). Conclusions: This validation study demonstrated that the majority of women could accurately recall a history of gestational diabetes, infant birthweight, and gestational age at delivery, 4 years postpartum on average. Recall of preeclampsia and pregnancy-associated hypertension overall was modest. Maternal report of these pregnancy conditions may help clinicians identify women at increased risk for cardiovascular disease. PMID:26061196

Muscle strength in patients with acromegaly at diagnosis and during long-term follow-up.

PubMed

Füchtbauer, Laila; Olsson, Daniel S; Bengtsson, Bengt-Åke; Norrman, Lise-Lott; Sunnerhagen, Katharina S; Johannsson, Gudmundur

2017-08-01

Patients with acromegaly have decreased body fat (BF) and increased extracellular water (ECW) and muscle mass. Although there is a lack of systematic studies on muscle function, it is believed that patients with acromegaly may suffer from proximal muscle weakness despite their increased muscle mass. We studied body composition and muscle function in untreated acromegaly and after biochemical remission. Prospective observational study. Patients with acromegaly underwent measurements of muscle strength (dynamometers) and body composition (four-compartment model) at diagnosis ( n  = 48), 1 year after surgery ( n  = 29) and after long-term follow-up (median 11 years) ( n  = 24). Results were compared to healthy subjects. Untreated patients had increased body cell mass (113 ± 9% of predicted) and ECW (110 ± 20%) and decreased BF (67 ± 7.6%). At one-year follow-up, serum concentration of IGF-I was reduced and body composition had normalized. At baseline, isometric muscle strength in knee flexors and extensors was normal and concentric strength was modestly increased whereas grip strength and endurance was reduced. After one year, muscle strength was normal in both patients with still active disease and patients in remission. At long-term follow-up, all patients were in remission. Most muscle function tests remained normal, but isometric flexion and the fatigue index were increased to 153 ± 42% and 139 ± 28% of predicted values, respectively. Patients with untreated acromegaly had increased body cell mass and normal or modestly increased proximal muscle strength, whereas their grip strength was reduced. After biochemical improvement and remission, body composition was normalized, hand grip strength was increased, whereas proximal muscle fatigue increased. © 2017 European Society of Endocrinology.

Structure-activity models of oral clearance, cytotoxicity, and LD50: a screen for promising anticancer compounds

PubMed Central

Boik, John C; Newman, Robert A

2008-01-01

Background Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models have become popular tools to help identify promising lead compounds in anticancer drug development. Few QSAR studies have investigated multitask learning, however. Multitask learning is an approach that allows distinct but related data sets to be used in training. In this paper, a suite of three QSAR models is developed to identify compounds that are likely to (a) exhibit cytotoxic behavior against cancer cells, (b) exhibit high rat LD50 values (low systemic toxicity), and (c) exhibit low to modest human oral clearance (favorable pharmacokinetic characteristics). Models were constructed using Kernel Multitask Latent Analysis (KMLA), an approach that can effectively handle a large number of correlated data features, nonlinear relationships between features and responses, and multitask learning. Multitask learning is particularly useful when the number of available training records is small relative to the number of features, as was the case with the oral clearance data. Results Multitask learning modestly but significantly improved the classification precision for the oral clearance model. For the cytotoxicity model, which was constructed using a large number of records, multitask learning did not affect precision but did reduce computation time. The models developed here were used to predict activities for 115,000 natural compounds. Hundreds of natural compounds, particularly in the anthraquinone and flavonoids groups, were predicted to be cytotoxic, have high LD50 values, and have low to moderate oral clearance. Conclusion Multitask learning can be useful in some QSAR models. A suite of QSAR models was constructed and used to screen a large drug library for compounds likely to be cytotoxic to multiple cancer cell lines in vitro, have low systemic toxicity in rats, and have favorable pharmacokinetic properties in humans. PMID:18554402

Structure-activity models of oral clearance, cytotoxicity, and LD50: a screen for promising anticancer compounds.

PubMed

Boik, John C; Newman, Robert A

2008-06-13

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models have become popular tools to help identify promising lead compounds in anticancer drug development. Few QSAR studies have investigated multitask learning, however. Multitask learning is an approach that allows distinct but related data sets to be used in training. In this paper, a suite of three QSAR models is developed to identify compounds that are likely to (a) exhibit cytotoxic behavior against cancer cells, (b) exhibit high rat LD50 values (low systemic toxicity), and (c) exhibit low to modest human oral clearance (favorable pharmacokinetic characteristics). Models were constructed using Kernel Multitask Latent Analysis (KMLA), an approach that can effectively handle a large number of correlated data features, nonlinear relationships between features and responses, and multitask learning. Multitask learning is particularly useful when the number of available training records is small relative to the number of features, as was the case with the oral clearance data. Multitask learning modestly but significantly improved the classification precision for the oral clearance model. For the cytotoxicity model, which was constructed using a large number of records, multitask learning did not affect precision but did reduce computation time. The models developed here were used to predict activities for 115,000 natural compounds. Hundreds of natural compounds, particularly in the anthraquinone and flavonoids groups, were predicted to be cytotoxic, have high LD50 values, and have low to moderate oral clearance. Multitask learning can be useful in some QSAR models. A suite of QSAR models was constructed and used to screen a large drug library for compounds likely to be cytotoxic to multiple cancer cell lines in vitro, have low systemic toxicity in rats, and have favorable pharmacokinetic properties in humans.

Using public control genotype data to increase power and decrease cost of case-control genetic association studies.

PubMed

Ho, Lindsey A; Lange, Ethan M

2010-12-01

Genome-wide association (GWA) studies are a powerful approach for identifying novel genetic risk factors associated with human disease. A GWA study typically requires the inclusion of thousands of samples to have sufficient statistical power to detect single nucleotide polymorphisms that are associated with only modest increases in risk of disease given the heavy burden of a multiple test correction that is necessary to maintain valid statistical tests. Low statistical power and the high financial cost of performing a GWA study remains prohibitive for many scientific investigators anxious to perform such a study using their own samples. A number of remedies have been suggested to increase statistical power and decrease cost, including the utilization of free publicly available genotype data and multi-stage genotyping designs. Herein, we compare the statistical power and relative costs of alternative association study designs that use cases and screened controls to study designs that are based only on, or additionally include, free public control genotype data. We describe a novel replication-based two-stage study design, which uses free public control genotype data in the first stage and follow-up genotype data on case-matched controls in the second stage that preserves many of the advantages inherent when using only an epidemiologically matched set of controls. Specifically, we show that our proposed two-stage design can substantially increase statistical power and decrease cost of performing a GWA study while controlling the type-I error rate that can be inflated when using public controls due to differences in ancestry and batch genotype effects.

Experimental Investigation of a Direct-drive Hall Thruster and Solar Array System at Power Levels up to 10 kW

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, John S.; Brophy, John R.; Hofer, Richard R.; Goebel, Dan M.; Katz, Ira

2012-01-01

As NASA considers future exploration missions, high-power solar-electric propulsion (SEP) plays a prominent role in achieving many mission goals. Studies of high-power SEP systems (i.e. tens to hundreds of kilowatts) suggest that significant mass savings may be realized by implementing a direct-drive power system, so NASA recently established the National Direct-Drive Testbed to examine technical issues identified by previous investigations. The testbed includes a 12-kW solar array and power control station designed to power single and multiple Hall thrusters over a wide range of voltages and currents. In this paper, single Hall thruster operation directly from solar array output at discharge voltages of 200 to 450 V and discharge powers of 1 to 10 kW is reported. Hall thruster control and operation is shown to be simple and no different than for operation on conventional power supplies. Thruster and power system electrical oscillations were investigated over a large range of operating conditions and with different filter capacitances. Thruster oscillations were the same as for conventional power supplies, did not adversely affect solar array operation, and were independent of filter capacitance from 8 to 80 ?F. Solar array current and voltage oscillations were very small compared to their mean values and showed a modest dependence on capacitor size. No instabilities or anomalous behavior were observed in the thruster or power system at any operating condition investigated, including near and at the array peak power point. Thruster startup using the anode propellant flow as the power 'switch' was shown to be simple and reliable with system transients mitigated by the proper selection of filter capacitance size. Shutdown via cutoff of propellant flow was also demonstrated. A simple electrical circuit model was developed and is shown to have good agreement with the experimental data.

Intelligent Prediction of Fan Rotation Stall in Power Plants Based on Pressure Sensor Data Measured In-Situ

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiaogang; Wang, Songling; Liu, Jinlian; Liu, Xinyu

2014-01-01

Blower and exhaust fans consume over 30% of electricity in a thermal power plant, and faults of these fans due to rotation stalls are one of the most frequent reasons for power plant outage failures. To accurately predict the occurrence of fan rotation stalls, we propose a support vector regression machine (SVRM) model that predicts the fan internal pressures during operation, leaving ample time for rotation stall detection. We train the SVRM model using experimental data samples, and perform pressure data prediction using the trained SVRM model. To prove the feasibility of using the SVRM model for rotation stall prediction, we further process the predicted pressure data via wavelet-transform-based stall detection. By comparison of the detection results from the predicted and measured pressure data, we demonstrate that the SVRM model can accurately predict the fan pressure and guarantee reliable stall detection with a time advance of up to 0.0625 s. This superior pressure data prediction capability leaves significant time for effective control and prevention of fan rotation stall faults. This model has great potential for use in intelligent fan systems with stall prevention capability, which will ensure safe operation and improve the energy efficiency of power plants. PMID:24854057

Effect of the equivalent refractive index on intraocular lens power prediction with ray tracing after myopic laser in situ keratomileusis.

PubMed

Canovas, Carmen; van der Mooren, Marrie; Rosén, Robert; Piers, Patricia A; Wang, Li; Koch, Douglas D; Artal, Pablo

2015-05-01

To determine the impact of the equivalent refractive index (ERI) on intraocular lens (IOL) power prediction for eyes with previous myopic laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) using custom ray tracing. AMO B.V., Groningen, the Netherlands, and the Department of Ophthalmology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA. Retrospective data analysis. The ERI was calculated individually from the post-LASIK total corneal power. Two methods to account for the posterior corneal surface were tested; that is, calculation from pre-LASIK data or from post-LASIK data only. Four IOL power predictions were generated using a computer-based ray-tracing technique, including individual ERI results from both calculation methods, a mean ERI over the whole population, and the ERI for normal patients. For each patient, IOL power results calculated from the four predictions as well as those obtained with the Haigis-L were compared with the optimum IOL power calculated after cataract surgery. The study evaluated 25 patients. The mean and range of ERI values determined using post-LASIK data were similar to those determined from pre-LASIK data. Introducing individual or an average ERI in the ray-tracing IOL power calculation procedure resulted in mean IOL power errors that were not significantly different from zero. The ray-tracing procedure that includes an average ERI gave a greater percentage of eyes with an IOL power prediction error within ±0.5 diopter than the Haigis-L (84% versus 52%). For IOL power determination in post-LASIK patients, custom ray tracing including a modified ERI was an accurate procedure that exceeded the current standards for normal eyes. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Electric Power Generation of Photovoltaic Power System for Energy Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, Mitsuru; Takeuchi, Akira; Nozaki, Yousuke; Endo, Hisahito; Sumita, Jiro

Recently, there has been an increase in concern about the global environment. Interest is growing in developing an energy network by which new energy systems such as photovoltaic and fuel cells generate power locally and electric power and heat are controlled with a communications network. We developed the power generation forecast method for photovoltaic power systems in an energy network. The method makes use of weather information and regression analysis. We carried out forecasting power output of the photovoltaic power system installed in Expo 2005, Aichi Japan. As a result of comparing measurements with a prediction values, the average prediction error per day was about 26% of the measured power.

Longitudinal predictors of school-age academic achievement: unique contributions of toddler-age aggression, oppositionality, inattention, and hyperactivity.

PubMed

Brennan, Lauretta M; Shaw, Daniel S; Dishion, Thomas J; Wilson, Melvin

2012-11-01

This project examined the unique predictive validity of parent ratings of toddler-age aggression, oppositionality, inattention, and hyperactivity-impulsivity to academic achievement at school-age in a sample of 566 high-risk children and families. The study also investigated potential indirect effects of the Family Check-Up on school-age academic achievement through changes in child behavior problems. The results demonstrated that toddler-age aggression was most consistently associated with school-age academic achievement, albeit modestly. Moreover, findings showed that the intervention predicted greater decreases in aggression from ages 2-3 to 4-5 compared to controls. The results suggest that in high-risk toddler-aged children, aggression may be a more consistent predictor of school-age academic achievement than other externalizing dimensions, which has implications for early identification and efforts to promote children's adaptation.

Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.

PubMed

Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

2016-08-01

Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Xunxiang; Koyanagi, Takaaki; Fukuda, Makoto

In this paper, pure tungsten samples have been neutron irradiated in HFIR at 90–850 °C to 0.03–2.2 dpa. A dispersed barrier hardening model informed by the available microstructure data has been used to predict the hardness. Comparison of the model predictions and the measured Vickers hardness reveals the dominant hardening contribution at various irradiation conditions. For tungsten samples irradiated in HFIR, the results indicate that voids and dislocation loops contributed to the hardness increase in the low dose region (<0.3 dpa), while the formation of intermetallic second phase precipitation, resulting from transmutation, dominates the radiation-induced strengthening beginning with a relativelymore » modest dose (>0.6 dpa). Finally, the precipitate contribution is most pronounced for the HFIR irradiations, whereas the radiation-induced defect cluster microstructure can rationalize the entirety of the hardness increase observed in tungsten irradiated in the fast neutron spectrum of Joyo and the mixed neutron spectrum of JMTR.« less

Emotional processing and outcome of imaginal flooding therapy in Vietnam veterans with chronic posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Pitman, R K; Orr, S P; Altman, B; Longpre, R E; Poiré, R E; Macklin, M L; Michaels, M J; Steketee, G S

1996-01-01

This study examined emotional processing and outcome in 20 Vietnam veterans with chronic posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) who underwent imaginal flooding therapy. Results supported the occurrence of emotional processing, as manifest in significant activation, within-session habituation, and partial across-session habituation of physiologic and self-reported process variables. The flooding therapy produced only modest overall improvement, which was statistically significant for avoidance symptomatology measured by the impact of Events Scale (IOES) and number of intrusions per day recorded by the subject in a log. Symptomatic improvement appeared to generalize from a treated to an untreated experience. Heart rate activation during the first flooding session predicted a decrease in daily number of intrusive combat memories across the therapy. Otherwise, there was little association between extent of emotional processing and therapeutic outcome. The results provide limited support for the notion that mobilization of psychophysiologic arousal during exposure therapy predicts improvement.

Effects of directional uncertainty on visually-guided joystick pointing.

PubMed

Berryhill, Marian; Kveraga, Kestutis; Hughes, Howard C

2005-02-01

Reaction times generally follow the predictions of Hick's law as stimulus-response uncertainty increases, although notable exceptions include the oculomotor system. Saccadic and smooth pursuit eye movement reaction times are independent of stimulus-response uncertainty. Previous research showed that joystick pointing to targets, a motor analog of saccadic eye movements, is only modestly affected by increased stimulus-response uncertainty; however, a no-uncertainty condition (simple reaction time to 1 possible target) was not included. Here, we re-evaluate manual joystick pointing including a no-uncertainty condition. Analysis indicated simple joystick pointing reaction times were significantly faster than choice reaction times. Choice reaction times (2, 4, or 8 possible target locations) only slightly increased as the number of possible targets increased. These data suggest that, as with joystick tracking (a motor analog of smooth pursuit eye movements), joystick pointing is more closely approximated by a simple/choice step function than the log function predicted by Hick's law.

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods. For the three test seasons, the optimized thresholds tend to under-predict the icing losses. However, the threshold determined using boundary layer similarity theory most closely predicts the power losses due to icing versus the other methods. For the northern turbine, the average predicted power loss over the three seasons is 4.65 % while the observed power loss is 6.22 % (average difference of 1.57 %). For the southern turbine, the average predicted power loss and observed power loss over the same time period are 4.43 % and 6.16 %, respectively (average difference of 1.73 %). The three-year average, however, does not clearly capture the variability that exists season-to-season. On examination of each of the test seasons individually, the optimized relative humidity threshold methodology performs better than fixed power loss estimates commonly used in the wind energy industry.

Assessing the Chemical Accuracy of Protein Structures via Peptide Acidity

PubMed Central

Anderson, Janet S.; Hernández, Griselda; LeMaster, David M.

2012-01-01

Although the protein native state is a Boltzmann conformational ensemble, practical applications often require a representative model from the most populated region of that distribution. The acidity of the backbone amides, as reflected in hydrogen exchange rates, is exquisitely sensitive to the surrounding charge and dielectric volume distribution. For each of four proteins, three independently determined X-ray structures of differing crystallographic resolution were used to predict exchange for the static solvent-exposed amide hydrogens. The average correlation coefficients range from 0.74 for ubiquitin to 0.93 for Pyrococcus furiosus rubredoxin, reflecting the larger range of experimental exchange rates exhibited by the latter protein. The exchange prediction errors modestly correlate with the crystallographic resolution. MODELLER 9v6-derived homology models at ~60% sequence identity (36% identity for chymotrypsin inhibitor CI2) yielded correlation coefficients that are ~0.1 smaller than for the cognate X-ray structures. The most recently deposited NOE-based ubiquitin structure and the original NMR structure of CI2 fail to provide statistically significant predictions of hydrogen exchange. However, the more recent RECOORD refinement study of CI2 yielded predictions comparable to the X-ray and homology model-based analyses. PMID:23182463

Positive Illusions? The Accuracy of Academic Self-Appraisals in Adolescents With ADHD.

PubMed

Chan, Todd; Martinussen, Rhonda

2016-08-01

Children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) overestimate their academic competencies (AC) relative to performance and informant indicators (i.e., positive illusory bias; PIB). Do adolescents with ADHD exhibit this PIB and does it render self-views inaccurate? We examined the magnitude of the AC-PIB in adolescents with and without ADHD, the predictive accuracy of parent and adolescent AC ratings, and whether executive functions (EF) predict the AC-PIB. Adolescents (49 ADHD; 47 typically developing) completed math and EF tests, and self-rated their AC. Parents rated their adolescents' AC and EF. Adolescents with ADHD performed more poorly on the math task (vs. comparison group) but had a larger AC-PIB relative to parents' ratings. EFs predicted the PIB within the full sample. Adolescents' AC ratings, regardless of ADHD status, were more predictive of math performance than their parents' AC ratings. Adolescents with ADHD appear self-aware in their AC despite a modest PIB; nuanced self-appraisals may depend on EFs. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Distance from sub-Saharan Africa predicts mutational load in diverse human genomes.

PubMed

Henn, Brenna M; Botigué, Laura R; Peischl, Stephan; Dupanloup, Isabelle; Lipatov, Mikhail; Maples, Brian K; Martin, Alicia R; Musharoff, Shaila; Cann, Howard; Snyder, Michael P; Excoffier, Laurent; Kidd, Jeffrey M; Bustamante, Carlos D

2016-01-26

The Out-of-Africa (OOA) dispersal ∼ 50,000 y ago is characterized by a series of founder events as modern humans expanded into multiple continents. Population genetics theory predicts an increase of mutational load in populations undergoing serial founder effects during range expansions. To test this hypothesis, we have sequenced full genomes and high-coverage exomes from seven geographically divergent human populations from Namibia, Congo, Algeria, Pakistan, Cambodia, Siberia, and Mexico. We find that individual genomes vary modestly in the overall number of predicted deleterious alleles. We show via spatially explicit simulations that the observed distribution of deleterious allele frequencies is consistent with the OOA dispersal, particularly under a model where deleterious mutations are recessive. We conclude that there is a strong signal of purifying selection at conserved genomic positions within Africa, but that many predicted deleterious mutations have evolved as if they were neutral during the expansion out of Africa. Under a model where selection is inversely related to dominance, we show that OOA populations are likely to have a higher mutation load due to increased allele frequencies of nearly neutral variants that are recessive or partially recessive.

Advancing Atmospheric River Forecasts into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, E. A.; Baggett, C.; Mundhenk, B. D.; Nardi, K.; Maloney, E. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers can cause considerable mayhem along the west coast of North America - delivering flooding rains during periods of heightened activity and desiccating droughts during periods of reduced activity. The intrinsic chaos of the atmosphere makes the prediction of atmospheric rivers at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales ( 2 to 6 weeks) an inherently difficult task. We demonstrate here that the potential exists to advance forecast lead times of atmospheric rivers into S2S timescales through knowledge of two of the atmosphere's most prominent oscillations; the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The dynamical relationship between atmospheric rivers, the MJO and the QBO is hypothesized to occur through modulation of North Pacific blocking. We present an empirical prediction scheme for anomalous atmospheric river activity based solely on the MJO and QBO and demonstrate skillful subseasonal "forecasts of opportunity" 5+ weeks ahead. We conclude with a discussion of the ability of state-of-the-art NWP models to predict atmospheric river characteristics on S2S timescales. With the wide-ranging impacts associated with landfalling atmospheric rivers, even modest gains in the subseasonal prediction of anomalous atmospheric river activity may support early action decision making and benefit numerous sectors of society.

Improved accuracy of intraocular lens power calculation with the Zeiss IOLMaster.

PubMed

Olsen, Thomas

2007-02-01

This study aimed to demonstrate how the level of accuracy in intraocular lens (IOL) power calculation can be improved with optical biometry using partial optical coherence interferometry (PCI) (Zeiss IOLMaster) and current anterior chamber depth (ACD) prediction algorithms. Intraocular lens power in 461 consecutive cataract operations was calculated using both PCI and ultrasound and the accuracy of the results of each technique were compared. To illustrate the importance of ACD prediction per se, predictions were calculated using both a recently published 5-variable method and the Haigis 2-variable method and the results compared. All calculations were optimized in retrospect to account for systematic errors, including IOL constants and other off-set errors. The average absolute IOL prediction error (observed minus expected refraction) was 0.65 dioptres with ultrasound and 0.43 D with PCI using the 5-variable ACD prediction method (p < 0.00001). The number of predictions within +/- 0.5 D, +/- 1.0 D and +/- 2.0 D of the expected outcome was 62.5%, 92.4% and 99.9% with PCI, compared with 45.5%, 77.3% and 98.4% with ultrasound, respectively (p < 0.00001). The 2-variable ACD method resulted in an average error in PCI predictions of 0.46 D, which was significantly higher than the error in the 5-variable method (p < 0.001). The accuracy of IOL power calculation can be significantly improved using calibrated axial length readings obtained with PCI and modern IOL power calculation formulas incorporating the latest generation ACD prediction algorithms.

Using a Guided Machine Learning Ensemble Model to Predict Discharge Disposition following Meningioma Resection.

PubMed

Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Kallos, Justiss A; Morone, Peter J; Weaver, Kyle D; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B

2018-04-01

Objective  Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools for predicting patient outcomes. This study pilots a novel approach to algorithm selection and model creation using prediction of discharge disposition following meningioma resection as a proof of concept. Materials and Methods  A diversity of ML algorithms were trained on a single-institution database of meningioma patients to predict discharge disposition. Algorithms were ranked by predictive power and top performers were combined to create an ensemble model. The final ensemble was internally validated on never-before-seen data to demonstrate generalizability. The predictive power of the ensemble was compared with a logistic regression. Further analyses were performed to identify how important variables impact the ensemble. Results  Our ensemble model predicted disposition significantly better than a logistic regression (area under the curve of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, p  = 0.01). Tumor size, presentation at the emergency department, body mass index, convexity location, and preoperative motor deficit most strongly influence the model, though the independent impact of individual variables is nuanced. Conclusion  Using a novel ML technique, we built a guided ML ensemble model that predicts discharge destination following meningioma resection with greater predictive power than a logistic regression, and that provides greater clinical insight than a univariate analysis. These techniques can be extended to predict many other patient outcomes of interest.

Hybrid robust predictive optimization method of power system dispatch

DOEpatents

Chandra, Ramu Sharat [Niskayuna, NY; Liu, Yan [Ballston Lake, NY; Bose, Sumit [Niskayuna, NY; de Bedout, Juan Manuel [West Glenville, NY

2011-08-02

A method of power system dispatch control solves power system dispatch problems by integrating a larger variety of generation, load and storage assets, including without limitation, combined heat and power (CHP) units, renewable generation with forecasting, controllable loads, electric, thermal and water energy storage. The method employs a predictive algorithm to dynamically schedule different assets in order to achieve global optimization and maintain the system normal operation.

Power capability evaluation for lithium iron phosphate batteries based on multi-parameter constraints estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Pan, Rui; Liu, Chang; Chen, Zonghai; Ling, Qiang

2018-01-01

The battery power capability is intimately correlated with the climbing, braking and accelerating performance of the electric vehicles. Accurate power capability prediction can not only guarantee the safety but also regulate driving behavior and optimize battery energy usage. However, the nonlinearity of the battery model is very complex especially for the lithium iron phosphate batteries. Besides, the hysteresis loop in the open-circuit voltage curve is easy to cause large error in model prediction. In this work, a multi-parameter constraints dynamic estimation method is proposed to predict the battery continuous period power capability. A high-fidelity battery model which considers the battery polarization and hysteresis phenomenon is presented to approximate the high nonlinearity of the lithium iron phosphate battery. Explicit analyses of power capability with multiple constraints are elaborated, specifically the state-of-energy is considered in power capability assessment. Furthermore, to solve the problem of nonlinear system state estimation, and suppress noise interference, the UKF based state observer is employed for power capability prediction. The performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by experiments under different dynamic characterization schedules. The charge and discharge power capabilities of the lithium iron phosphate batteries are quantitatively assessed under different time scales and temperatures.

Alcohol-induced blackouts, subjective intoxication, and motivation to decrease drinking: Prospective examination of the transition out of college.

PubMed

Marino, Elise N; Fromme, Kim

2018-05-01

We prospectively examined whether subjective intoxication serves as a risk factor for experiencing alcohol-induced blackouts. We then examined whether subjective intoxication and/or blackouts predicted motivation to decrease their drinking, and whether this motivation to change would promote future changes in drinking behavior. Participants (N=1854, 62.1% female, 53.2% Caucasian, M age =21.8) were recruited the summer prior to matriculating into a large, public university to complete a 6-year longitudinal study. Self-reported motivation to decrease their drinking behavior, their frequency of blackouts, quantity of alcohol consumption, and subjective intoxication (i.e., feeling drunk) were assessed annually during the transition out of college (Years 4-6). In a cross-lagged model, subjective intoxication (i.e., feeling drunk) prospectively predicted experiencing blackouts (p<0.001). Controlling for both objective (e.g., quantity) and subjective intoxication, blackouts at Year 4 predicted greater motivation to decrease drinking behavior at Year 5 (p<0.01), but this motivation did not predict less quantity of alcohol use by Year 6 (p=0.076). Subjective intoxication is a robust predictor of blackouts across time. Additionally, blackouts are modest, developmentally-limited predictors of motivation to change drinking behavior, but blackouts do not predict future behavior change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cochlea-scaled spectral entropy predicts rate-invariant intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences.

PubMed

Stilp, Christian E; Kiefte, Michael; Alexander, Joshua M; Kluender, Keith R

2010-10-01

Some evidence, mostly drawn from experiments using only a single moderate rate of speech, suggests that low-frequency amplitude modulations may be particularly important for intelligibility. Here, two experiments investigated intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences across a wide range of simulated speaking rates, and two metrics were used to predict results. Sentence intelligibility was assessed when successive segments of fixed duration were temporally reversed (exp. 1), and when sentences were processed through four third-octave-band filters, the outputs of which were desynchronized (exp. 2). For both experiments, intelligibility decreased with increasing distortion. However, in exp. 2, intelligibility recovered modestly with longer desynchronization. Across conditions, performances measured as a function of proportion of utterance distorted converged to a common function. Estimates of intelligibility derived from modulation transfer functions predict a substantial proportion of the variance in listeners' responses in exp. 1, but fail to predict performance in exp. 2. By contrast, a metric of potential information, quantified as relative dissimilarity (change) between successive cochlear-scaled spectra, is introduced. This metric reliably predicts listeners' intelligibility across the full range of speaking rates in both experiments. Results support an information-theoretic approach to speech perception and the significance of spectral change rather than physical units of time.

Evaluation of an ensemble of genetic models for prediction of a quantitative trait.

PubMed

Milton, Jacqueline N; Steinberg, Martin H; Sebastiani, Paola

2014-01-01

Many genetic markers have been shown to be associated with common quantitative traits in genome-wide association studies. Typically these associated genetic markers have small to modest effect sizes and individually they explain only a small amount of the variability of the phenotype. In order to build a genetic prediction model without fitting a multiple linear regression model with possibly hundreds of genetic markers as predictors, researchers often summarize the joint effect of risk alleles into a genetic score that is used as a covariate in the genetic prediction model. However, the prediction accuracy can be highly variable and selecting the optimal number of markers to be included in the genetic score is challenging. In this manuscript we present a strategy to build an ensemble of genetic prediction models from data and we show that the ensemble-based method makes the challenge of choosing the number of genetic markers more amenable. Using simulated data with varying heritability and number of genetic markers, we compare the predictive accuracy and inclusion of true positive and false positive markers of a single genetic prediction model and our proposed ensemble method. The results show that the ensemble of genetic models tends to include a larger number of genetic variants than a single genetic model and it is more likely to include all of the true genetic markers. This increased sensitivity is obtained at the price of a lower specificity that appears to minimally affect the predictive accuracy of the ensemble.

Balancing computation and communication power in power constrained clusters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piga, Leonardo; Paul, Indrani; Huang, Wei

Systems, apparatuses, and methods for balancing computation and communication power in power constrained environments. A data processing cluster with a plurality of compute nodes may perform parallel processing of a workload in a power constrained environment. Nodes that finish tasks early may be power-gated based on one or more conditions. In some scenarios, a node may predict a wait duration and go into a reduced power consumption state if the wait duration is predicted to be greater than a threshold. The power saved by power-gating one or more nodes may be reassigned for use by other nodes. A cluster agentmore » may be configured to reassign the unused power to the active nodes to expedite workload processing.« less

Modeling of a resonant heat engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

2012-12-01

A resonant heat engine in which the piston assembly is replaced by a sealed elastic cavity is modeled and analyzed. A nondimensional lumped-parameter model is derived and used to investigate the factors that control the performance of the engine. The thermal efficiency predicted by the model agrees with that predicted from the relation for the Otto cycle based on compression ratio. The predictions show that for a fixed mechanical load, increasing the heat input results in increased efficiency. The output power and power density are shown to depend on the loading for a given heat input. The loading condition for maximum output power is different from that required for maximum power density.

Synchrophasor-Assisted Prediction of Stability/Instability of a Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha Roy, Biman Kumar; Sinha, Avinash Kumar; Pradhan, Ashok Kumar

2013-05-01

This paper presents a technique for real-time prediction of stability/instability of a power system based on synchrophasor measurements obtained from phasor measurement units (PMUs) at generator buses. For stability assessment the technique makes use of system severity indices developed using bus voltage magnitude obtained from PMUs and generator electrical power. Generator power is computed using system information and PMU information like voltage and current phasors obtained from PMU. System stability/instability is predicted when the indices exceeds a threshold value. A case study is carried out on New England 10-generator, 39-bus system to validate the performance of the technique.

Prediction of the effects of propeller operation on the static longitudinal stability of single-engine tractor monoplanes with flaps retracted

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weil, Joseph; Sleeman, William C , Jr

1949-01-01

The effects of propeller operation on the static longitudinal stability of single-engine tractor monoplanes are analyzed, and a simple method is presented for computing power-on pitching-moment curves for flap-retracted flight conditions. The methods evolved are based on the results of powered-model wind-tunnel investigations of 28 model configurations. Correlation curves are presented from which the effects of power on the downwash over the tail and the stabilizer effectiveness can be rapidly predicted. The procedures developed enable prediction of power-on longitudinal stability characteristics that are generally in very good agreement with experiment.

An Operating Method Using Prediction of Photovoltaic Power for a Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid Power Generation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Shigehiro; Sumi, Kazuyoshi; Nishikawa, Eiichi; Hashimoto, Takeshi

This paper describes a novel operating method using prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power for a photovoltaic-diesel hybrid power generation system. The system is composed of a PV array, a storage battery, a bi-directional inverter and a diesel engine generator (DG). The proposed method enables the system to save fuel consumption by using PV energy effectively, reducing charge and discharge energy of the storage battery, and avoiding low-load operation of the DG. The PV power is simply predicted from a theoretical equation of solar radiation and the observed PV energy for a constant time before the prediction. The amount of fuel consumption of the proposed method is compared with that of other methods by a simulation based on measurement data of the PV power at an actual PV generation system for one year. The simulation results indicate that the amount of fuel consumption of the proposed method is smaller than that of any other methods, and is close to that of the ideal operation of the DG.

A Comparison between Bench Press Throw and Ballistic Push-Up tests to assess upper-body power in trained individuals.

PubMed

Bartolomei, Sandro; Nigro, Federico; Ruggeri, Sandro; Lanzoni, Ivan Malagoli; Ciacci, Simone; Merni, Franco; Sadres, Eliahu; Hoffman, Jay R; Semprini, Gabriele

2018-03-06

The purpose of the present study was to validate the ballistic push-up test performed with hands on a force plate (BPU) as a method to measure upper-body power. Twenty-eight experienced resistance trained men (age = 25.4 ± 5.2 y; body mass = 78.5 ± 9.0 kg; body height = 179.6 ± 7.8 cm) performed, two days apart, a bench press 1RM test and upper-body power tests. Mean power and peak power were assessed using the bench press throw test (BT) and the BPU test performed in randomized order. The area under the force/power curve (AUC) obtained at BT was also calculated. Power expressed at BPU was estimated using a time-based prediction equation. Mean force and the participant's body weight were used to predict the bench press 1RM. Pearson product moment correlations were used to examine relationships between the power assessment methods and between the predicted 1RM bench and the actual value. Large correlations (0.79; p < 0.001) were found between AUC and mean power expressed at BPU. Large correlations were also detected between mean power and peak power expressed at BT and BPU (0.75; p < 0.001 and 0.74; p < 0.001, respectively). Very large correlations (0.87; p < 0.001) were found between the 1RM bench and the 1RM predicted by the BPU. Results of the present study indicate that BPU represents a valid and reliable method to estimate the upper-body power in resistance-trained individuals.

Thermal pollution impacts on rivers and power supply in the Mississippi River watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miara, Ariel; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Macknick, Jordan E.

Thermal pollution from power plants degrades riverine ecosystems with ramifications beyond the natural environment as it affects power supply. The transport of thermal effluents along river reaches may lead to plant-to-plant interferences by elevating condenser inlet temperatures at downstream locations, which lower thermal efficiencies and trigger regulatory-forced power curtailments. We evaluate thermal pollution impacts on rivers and power supply across 128 plants with once-through cooling technologies in the Mississippi River watershed. By leveraging river network topologies with higher resolutions (0.05 degrees) than previous studies, we reveal the need to address the issue in a more spatially resolved manner, capable ofmore » uncovering diverse impacts across individual plants, river reaches and sub-basins. Results show that the use of coarse river network resolutions may lead to substantial overestimations in magnitude and length of impaired river reaches. Overall, there is a modest limitation on power production due to thermal pollution, given existing infrastructure, regulatory and climate conditions. However, tradeoffs between thermal pollution and electricity generation show important implications for the role of alternative cooling technologies and environmental regulation under current and future climates. Recirculating cooling technologies may nearly eliminate thermal pollution and improve power system reliability under stressed climate-water conditions. Regulatory limits also reduce thermal pollution, but at the expense of significant reductions in electricity generation capacity. However, results show several instances when power production capacity rises at individual plants when regulatory limits reduce upstream thermal pollution. Furthermore, these dynamics across energy-water systems highlight the need for high-resolution simulations and the value of coherent planning and optimization across infrastructure with mutual dependencies on natural resources to overcome climate-water constraints on productivity and bring to fruition energy and environmental win-win opportunities.« less

Is a data set distributed as a power law? A test, with application to gamma-ray burst brightnesses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wijers, Ralph A. M. J.; Lubin, Lori M.

1994-01-01

We present a method to determine whether an observed sample of data is drawn from a parent distribution that is pure power law. The method starts from a class of statistics which have zero expectation value under the null hypothesis, H(sub 0), that the distribution is a pure power law: F(x) varies as x(exp -alpha). We study one simple member of the class, named the `bending statistic' B, in detail. It is most effective for detection a type of deviation from a power law where the power-law slope varies slowly and monotonically as a function of x. Our estimator of B has a distribution under H(sub 0) that depends only on the size of the sample, not on the parameters of the parent population, and is approximated well by a normal distribution even for modest sample sizes. The bending statistic can therefore be used to test a set of numbers is drawn from any power-law parent population. Since many measurable quantities in astrophysics have distriibutions that are approximately power laws, and since deviations from the ideal power law often provide interesting information about the object of study (e.g., a `bend' or `break' in a luminosity function, a line in an X- or gamma-ray spectrum), we believe that a test of this type will be useful in many different contexts. In the present paper, we apply our test to various subsamples of gamma-ray burst brightness from the first-year Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) catalog and show that we can only marginally detect the expected steepening of the log (N (greater than C(sub max))) - log (C(sub max)) distribution.

Thermal pollution impacts on rivers and power supply in the Mississippi River watershed

DOE PAGES

Miara, Ariel; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Macknick, Jordan E.; ...

2018-03-08

Thermal pollution from power plants degrades riverine ecosystems with ramifications beyond the natural environment as it affects power supply. The transport of thermal effluents along river reaches may lead to plant-to-plant interferences by elevating condenser inlet temperatures at downstream locations, which lower thermal efficiencies and trigger regulatory-forced power curtailments. We evaluate thermal pollution impacts on rivers and power supply across 128 plants with once-through cooling technologies in the Mississippi River watershed. By leveraging river network topologies with higher resolutions (0.05 degrees) than previous studies, we reveal the need to address the issue in a more spatially resolved manner, capable ofmore » uncovering diverse impacts across individual plants, river reaches and sub-basins. Results show that the use of coarse river network resolutions may lead to substantial overestimations in magnitude and length of impaired river reaches. Overall, there is a modest limitation on power production due to thermal pollution, given existing infrastructure, regulatory and climate conditions. However, tradeoffs between thermal pollution and electricity generation show important implications for the role of alternative cooling technologies and environmental regulation under current and future climates. Recirculating cooling technologies may nearly eliminate thermal pollution and improve power system reliability under stressed climate-water conditions. Regulatory limits also reduce thermal pollution, but at the expense of significant reductions in electricity generation capacity. However, results show several instances when power production capacity rises at individual plants when regulatory limits reduce upstream thermal pollution. Furthermore, these dynamics across energy-water systems highlight the need for high-resolution simulations and the value of coherent planning and optimization across infrastructure with mutual dependencies on natural resources to overcome climate-water constraints on productivity and bring to fruition energy and environmental win-win opportunities.« less

Thermal pollution impacts on rivers and power supply in the Mississippi River watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, Ariel; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Macknick, Jordan E.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Fekete, Balazs; Corsi, Fabio; Newmark, Robin

2018-03-01

Thermal pollution from power plants degrades riverine ecosystems with ramifications beyond the natural environment as it affects power supply. The transport of thermal effluents along river reaches may lead to plant-to-plant interferences by elevating condenser inlet temperatures at downstream locations, which lower thermal efficiencies and trigger regulatory-forced power curtailments. We evaluate thermal pollution impacts on rivers and power supply across 128 plants with once-through cooling technologies in the Mississippi River watershed. By leveraging river network topologies with higher resolutions (0.05°) than previous studies, we reveal the need to address the issue in a more spatially resolved manner, capable of uncovering diverse impacts across individual plants, river reaches and sub-basins. Results show that the use of coarse river network resolutions may lead to substantial overestimations in magnitude and length of impaired river reaches. Overall, there is a modest limitation on power production due to thermal pollution, given existing infrastructure, regulatory and climate conditions. However, tradeoffs between thermal pollution and electricity generation show important implications for the role of alternative cooling technologies and environmental regulation under current and future climates. Recirculating cooling technologies may nearly eliminate thermal pollution and improve power system reliability under stressed climate-water conditions. Regulatory limits also reduce thermal pollution, but at the expense of significant reductions in electricity generation capacity. However, results show several instances when power production capacity rises at individual plants when regulatory limits reduce upstream thermal pollution. These dynamics across energy-water systems highlight the need for high-resolution simulations and the value of coherent planning and optimization across infrastructure with mutual dependencies on natural resources to overcome climate-water constraints on productivity and bring to fruition energy and environmental win-win opportunities.

Studying the Power of the Integrative Weaning Index in Predicting the Success Rate of the Spontaneous Breathing Trial in Patients under Mechanical Ventilation.

PubMed

Ebrahimabadi, Sahar; Moghadam, Ahmad Bagheri; Vakili, Mohammadali; Modanloo, Mahnaz; Khoddam, Homeira

2017-08-01

The use of weaning predictive indicators can avoid early extubation and wrongful prolonged mechanical ventilation. This study aimed to determine the power of the integrative weaning index (IWI) in predicting the success rate of the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) in patients under mechanical ventilation. In this prospective study, 105 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation for over 48 h were enrolled. Before weaning initiation, the IWI was calculated and based on the defined cutoff point (≥25), the success rate of the SBT was predicted. In case of weaning from the device, 2-h SBT was performed and the physiologic and respiratory indices were continuously studied while being intubated. If they were in the normal range besides the patient's tolerance, the test was considered as a success. The result was then compared with the IWI and further analyzed. The SBT was successful in 90 (85.7%) and unsuccessful in 15 (14.3%) cases. The difference between the true patient outcome after SBT, and the IWI prediction was 0.143 according to the Kappa agreement coefficient ( P < 0.001). Moreover, regarding the predictive power, IWI had high sensitivity (95.6%), specificity (40%), positive and negative predictive values (90.5% and 60), positive and negative likelihood ratios (1.59 and 0.11), and accuracy (86.7%). The IWI as a more objective indicator has acceptable accuracy and power for predicting the 2-h SBT result. Therefore, in addition to the reliable prediction of the final weaning outcome, it has favorable power to predict if the patient is ready to breathe spontaneously as the first step to weaning.

Studying the Power of the Integrative Weaning Index in Predicting the Success Rate of the Spontaneous Breathing Trial in Patients under Mechanical Ventilation

PubMed Central

Ebrahimabadi, Sahar; Moghadam, Ahmad Bagheri; Vakili, Mohammadali; Modanloo, Mahnaz; Khoddam, Homeira

2017-01-01

Background and Aims: The use of weaning predictive indicators can avoid early extubation and wrongful prolonged mechanical ventilation. This study aimed to determine the power of the integrative weaning index (IWI) in predicting the success rate of the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) in patients under mechanical ventilation. Materials and Methods: In this prospective study, 105 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation for over 48 h were enrolled. Before weaning initiation, the IWI was calculated and based on the defined cutoff point (≥25), the success rate of the SBT was predicted. In case of weaning from the device, 2-h SBT was performed and the physiologic and respiratory indices were continuously studied while being intubated. If they were in the normal range besides the patient's tolerance, the test was considered as a success. The result was then compared with the IWI and further analyzed. Results: The SBT was successful in 90 (85.7%) and unsuccessful in 15 (14.3%) cases. The difference between the true patient outcome after SBT, and the IWI prediction was 0.143 according to the Kappa agreement coefficient (P < 0.001). Moreover, regarding the predictive power, IWI had high sensitivity (95.6%), specificity (40%), positive and negative predictive values (90.5% and 60), positive and negative likelihood ratios (1.59 and 0.11), and accuracy (86.7%). Conclusion: The IWI as a more objective indicator has acceptable accuracy and power for predicting the 2-h SBT result. Therefore, in addition to the reliable prediction of the final weaning outcome, it has favorable power to predict if the patient is ready to breathe spontaneously as the first step to weaning. PMID:28904477

Electronic stopping powers for heavy ions in SiC and SiO{sub 2}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, K.; Xue, H.; Zhang, Y., E-mail: Zhangy1@ornl.gov

2014-01-28

Accurate information on electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in materials science, electronic industry, space exploration, and sustainable energy technologies. In the case of slow heavy ions in light targets, current codes and models provide significantly inconsistent predictions, among which the Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code is the most commonly used one. Experimental evidence, however, has demonstrated considerable errors in the predicted ion and damage profiles based on SRIM stopping powers. In this work, electronic stopping powers for Cl, Br, I, and Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC andmore » SiO{sub 2}, based on a single ion technique, and new electronic stopping power values are derived over the energy regime from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from the SRIM predictions are observed. As an experimental validation, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC for energies from 700 keV to 15 MeV. The measured ion distributions by both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper than the SRIM predictions, but agree well with predictions based on our derived stopping powers.« less

Electronic Stopping Powers For Heavy Ions In SiC And SiO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Ke; Zhang, Y.; Zhu, Zihua

2014-01-24

Accurate information on electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in materials science, electronic industry, space exploration, and sustainable energy technologies. In the case of slow heavy ions in light targets, current codes and models provide significantly inconsistent predictions, among which the Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code is the most commonly used one. Experimental evidence, however, has demonstrated considerable errors in the predicted ion and damage profiles based on SRIM stopping powers. In this work, electronic stopping powers for Cl, Br, I, and Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC andmore » SiO2, based on a single ion technique, and new electronic stopping power values are derived over the energy regime from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from the SRIM predictions are observed. As an experimental validation, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC for energies from 700 keV to 15MeV. The measured ion distributions by both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper than the SRIM predictions, but agree well with predictions based on our derived stopping powers.« less

A Robust Method of Measuring Other-Race and Other-Ethnicity Effects: The Cambridge Face Memory Test Format

PubMed Central

McKone, Elinor; Stokes, Sacha; Liu, Jia; Cohan, Sarah; Fiorentini, Chiara; Pidcock, Madeleine; Yovel, Galit; Broughton, Mary; Pelleg, Michel

2012-01-01

Other-race and other-ethnicity effects on face memory have remained a topic of consistent research interest over several decades, across fields including face perception, social psychology, and forensic psychology (eyewitness testimony). Here we demonstrate that the Cambridge Face Memory Test format provides a robust method for measuring these effects. Testing the Cambridge Face Memory Test original version (CFMT-original; European-ancestry faces from Boston USA) and a new Cambridge Face Memory Test Chinese (CFMT-Chinese), with European and Asian observers, we report a race-of-face by race-of-observer interaction that was highly significant despite modest sample size and despite observers who had quite high exposure to the other race. We attribute this to high statistical power arising from the very high internal reliability of the tasks. This power also allows us to demonstrate a much smaller within-race other ethnicity effect, based on differences in European physiognomy between Boston faces/observers and Australian faces/observers (using the CFMT-Australian). PMID:23118912

The changing source of X-ray reflection in the radio-intermediate Seyfert 1 galaxy III Zw 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, A. G.; Waddell, S. G. H.; Gallo, L. C.

2018-03-01

We report on X-ray observations of the radio-intermediate, X-ray bright Seyfert 1 galaxy, III Zw 2, obtained with XMM-Newton, Suzaku, and Swift over the past 17 yr. The source brightness varies significantly over yearly time-scales, but more modestly over periods of days. Pointed observations with XMM-Newton in 2000 and Suzaku in 2011 show spectral differences despite comparable X-ray fluxes. The Suzaku spectra are consistent with a power-law continuum and a narrow Gaussian emission feature at ˜6.4 keV, whereas the earlier XMM-Newton spectrum requires a broader Gaussian profile and soft-excess below ˜2 keV. A potential interpretation is that the primary power-law emission, perhaps from a jet base, preferentially illuminates the inner accretion disc in 2000, but the distant torus in 2011. The interpretation could be consistent with the hypothesized precessing radio jet in III Zw 2 that may have originated from disc instabilities due to an ongoing merging event.

The void spectrum in two-dimensional numerical simulations of gravitational clustering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kauffmann, Guinevere; Melott, Adrian L.

1992-01-01

An algorithm for deriving a spectrum of void sizes from two-dimensional high-resolution numerical simulations of gravitational clustering is tested, and it is verified that it produces the correct results where those results can be anticipated. The method is used to study the growth of voids as clustering proceeds. It is found that the most stable indicator of the characteristic void 'size' in the simulations is the mean fractional area covered by voids of diameter d, in a density field smoothed at its correlation length. Very accurate scaling behavior is found in power-law numerical models as they evolve. Eventually, this scaling breaks down as the nonlinearity reaches larger scales. It is shown that this breakdown is a manifestation of the undesirable effect of boundary conditions on simulations, even with the very large dynamic range possible here. A simple criterion is suggested for deciding when simulations with modest large-scale power may systematically underestimate the frequency of larger voids.

Energy harvesting: small scale energy production from ambient sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeatman, Eric M.

2009-03-01

Energy harvesting - the collection of otherwise unexploited energy in the local environment - is attracting increasing attention for the powering of electronic devices. While the power levels that can be reached are typically modest (microwatts to milliwatts), the key motivation is to avoid the need for battery replacement or recharging in portable or inaccessible devices. Wireless sensor networks are a particularly important application: the availability of essentially maintenance free sensor nodes, as enabled by energy harvesting, will greatly increase the feasibility of large scale networks, in the paradigm often known as pervasive sensing. Such pervasive sensing networks, used to monitor buildings, structures, outdoor environments or the human body, offer significant benefits for large scale energy efficiency, health and safety, and many other areas. Sources of energy for harvesting include light, temperature differences, and ambient motion, and a wide range of miniature energy harvesters based on these sources have been proposed or demonstrated. This paper reviews the principles and practice in miniature energy harvesters, and discusses trends, suitable applications, and possible future developments.

Modeling of a solar-pumped iodine laser

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, J. W.; Lee, J. H.

1980-01-01

The direct conversion in space of solar radiation into laser radiation for power transmission to earth, satellites, or deep space probes shows promise as a reasonably simple technology and may have cost advantage in deployment and greater reliability compared to other methods of space power generation and transmission. The main candidates for solar pumping are the gas dynamic, photochemical, and direct photoexcited lasers. Here consideration is given to the photochemical reaction of alkyliodides which predominantly excite the I(2P1/2) state which then lases at 1.315 microns. The iodine ground state is eventually lost to reconstituting the gas or in the formation of molecular iodine. The rates at which the gas is required to be recycled through the laser system are modest. The side exposure at 100-fold solar concentration of a 100-m long tube with a 1 sq m cross section is estimated to provide 20 kW of continuous laser output. Scaling laws and optimum operating conditions of this system are discussed.

Exome sequencing of extreme phenotypes identifies DCTN4 as a modifier of chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection in cystic fibrosis.

PubMed

Emond, Mary J; Louie, Tin; Emerson, Julia; Zhao, Wei; Mathias, Rasika A; Knowles, Michael R; Wright, Fred A; Rieder, Mark J; Tabor, Holly K; Nickerson, Deborah A; Barnes, Kathleen C; Gibson, Ronald L; Bamshad, Michael J

2012-07-08

Exome sequencing has become a powerful and effective strategy for the discovery of genes underlying Mendelian disorders. However, use of exome sequencing to identify variants associated with complex traits has been more challenging, partly because the sample sizes needed for adequate power may be very large. One strategy to increase efficiency is to sequence individuals who are at both ends of a phenotype distribution (those with extreme phenotypes). Because the frequency of alleles that contribute to the trait are enriched in one or both phenotype extremes, a modest sample size can potentially be used to identify novel candidate genes and/or alleles. As part of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Exome Sequencing Project (ESP), we used an extreme phenotype study design to discover that variants in DCTN4, encoding a dynactin protein, are associated with time to first P. aeruginosa airway infection, chronic P. aeruginosa infection and mucoid P. aeruginosa in individuals with cystic fibrosis.

Cavity-enhanced optical bottle beam as a mechanical amplifier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freegarde, Tim; Dholakia, Kishan

2002-07-01

We analyze the resonant cavity enhancement of a hollow ``optical bottle beam'' for the dipole-force trapping of dark-field-seeking species. We first improve upon the basic bottle beam by adding further Laguerre-Gaussian components to deepen the confining potential. Each of these components itself corresponds to a superposition of transverse cavity modes, which are then enhanced simultaneously in a confocal cavity to produce a deep optical trap needing only a modest incident power. The response of the trapping field to displacement of the cavity mirrors offers an unusual form of mechanical amplifier in which the Gouy phase shift produces an optical Vernier scale between the Laguerre-Gaussian beam components.

AmeriFlux US-WCr Willow Creek

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Desai, Ankur

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-WCr Willow Creek. Site Description - Upland decduous broadleaf forest. Mainly sugar maple, also basswood. Uniform stand atop a very modest hill. Clearcut approximately 80 years ago. Chosen to be representative of the upland deciduous broadleaf forests within the WLEF tall tower flux footprint. It appears to be more heavily forested and more productive than most of the upland deciduous broadleaf forests in the WLEF flux footprint (see publications for more details). It is also important that SE winds are screened from the flux data (see Cookmore » et al, 2004 for details). Propane generator power.« less

1980 scrubber highlights: dry-process startups, dual-alkali progress highlight scrubber advances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1981-06-01

A survey of electric utilities reports scrubbers on 13% of existing capacity and estimates 29% by 1990, but compliance with the New Source Performance Standards may raise the total even higher. Dry scrubbers at two Northern States Power installations show test performances that indicate sound design and report modest manpower requirements. Other utilities are ordering demonstration dry-scrubber units, although orders for wet scrubbers continue to do well. A new dual-alkali scrubber is performing well at three installations in terms of availability and sulfur-dioxide-removal efficiency. A full-scale utility dump site test will identify any hazardous materials in pollution control ash andmore » sludge wastes. (DCK)« less

Laser radar range and detection performance for MEMS corner cube retroreflector arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, Robert J.; Odhner, Jefferson E.; Stewart, Hamilton; McDaniel, Robert V.

2004-12-01

BAE SYSTEMS reports on a program to characterize the performance of MEMS corner cube retroreflector arrays under laser illumination. These arrays have significant military and commercial application in the areas of: 1) target identification; 2) target tracking; 3) target location; 4) identification friend-or-foe (IFF); 5) parcel tracking, and; 6) search and rescue assistance. BAE SYSTEMS has theoretically determined the feasibility of these devices to learn if sufficient signal-to-noise performance exists to permit a cooperative laser radar sensor to be considered for device location and interrogation. Results indicate that modest power-apertures are required to achieve SNR performance consistent with high probability of detection and low false alarm rates.

Laser radar range and detection performance for MEMS corner cube retroreflector arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, Robert J.; Jost, Steven R.; Smith, M. J.; McDaniel, Robert V.

2004-01-01

BAE SYSTEMS reports on a program to characterize the performance of MEMS corner cube retroreflector arrays under laser illumination. These arrays have significant military and commercial application in the areas of: (1) target identification; (2) target tracking; (3) target location; (4) identification friend-or-foe (IFF); (5) parcel tracking, and; (6) search and rescue assistance. BAE SYSTEMS has theoretically determined the feasibility of these devices to learn if sufficient signal-to-noise performance exists to permit a cooperative laser radar sensor to be considered for device location and interrogation. Results indicate that modest power-apertures are required to achieve SNR performance consistent with high probability of detection and low false alarm rates.

The physics design of accelerator-driven transmutation systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Venneri, F.

1995-10-01

Nuclear systems under study in the Los Alamos Accelerator-Driven Transmutation Technology program (ADTT) will allow the destruction of nuclear spent fuel and weapons-return plutonium, as well as the production of nuclear energy from the thorium cycle, without a long-lived radioactive waste stream. The subcritical systems proposed represent a radical departure from traditional nuclear concepts (reactors), yet the actual implementation of ADTT systems is based on modest extrapolations of existing technology. These systems strive to keep the best that the nuclear technology has developed over the years, within a sensible conservative design envelope and eventually manage to offer a safe, lessmore » expensive and more environmentally sound approach to nuclear power.« less

An analysis of the sectorial influence of CSI300 stocks within the directed network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, Yong; Chen, Huan; Meng, Lei

2014-02-01

This paper uses the Partial Correlation Planar maximally filtered Graph (PCPG) method to construct a directed network for the constituent stocks underlying the China Securities Index 300 (CSI300). We also analyse the impact of individual stocks. We find that the CSI300 market is a scale-free network with a relatively small power law exponent. The volatility of the stock prices has significant impact on other stocks. In the sectorial network, the industrial sector is the most influential one over other sectors, the financial sector only has a modest influence, while the telecommunication services sector’s influence is marginal. In addition, such inter-sector influence displays quarterly stability.