Development of a model forecasting Dermanyssus gallinae's population dynamics for advancing Integrated Pest Management in laying hen facilities.

PubMed

Mul, Monique F; van Riel, Johan W; Roy, Lise; Zoons, Johan; André, Geert; George, David R; Meerburg, Bastiaan G; Dicke, Marcel; van Mourik, Simon; Groot Koerkamp, Peter W G

2017-10-15

The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting the pests' population dynamics in laying hen facilities without and post-treatment will contribute to this advanced IPM and could consequently improve implementation of IPM by farmers. The current work describes the development and demonstration of a model which can follow and forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae in laying hen facilities given the variation of the population growth of D. gallinae within and between flocks. This high variation could partly be explained by house temperature, flock age, treatment, and hen house. The total population growth variation within and between flocks, however, was in part explained by temporal variation. For a substantial part this variation was unexplained. A dynamic adaptive model (DAP) was consequently developed, as models of this type are able to handle such temporal variations. The developed DAP model can forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae, requiring only current flock population monitoring data, temperature data and information of the dates of any D. gallinae treatment. Importantly, the DAP model forecasted treatment effects, while compensating for location and time specific interactions, handling the variability of these parameters. The characteristics of this DAP model, and its compatibility with different mite monitoring methods, represent progression from existing approaches for forecasting D. gallinae that could contribute to advancing improved Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The demography of a small population of yellow columbines in the Organ Mountains

Treesearch

Chris J. Stubben; Brook G. Milligan

2001-01-01

Yellow-flowered columbines (Aquilegia chrysantha Gray) are usually found in small, isolated populations near streams and pools in mountain ranges throughout the southwestern United States. To study the long-term dynamics of these populations, which are vulnerable to extinction, we have monitored the demography of a population in Fillmore Canyon in the Organ Mountains...

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Passive Acoustic Monitoring of the Environmental Impact of Oil Exploration on Marine Mammals in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Sidorovskaia, Natalia A; Ackleh, Azmy S; Tiemann, Christopher O; Ma, Baoling; Ioup, Juliette W; Ioup, George E

2016-01-01

The Gulf of Mexico is a region densely populated by marine mammals that must adapt to living in a highly active industrial environment. This paper presents a new approach to quantifying the anthropogenic impact on the marine mammal population. The results for sperm and beaked whales of a case study of regional population dynamics trends after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, derived from passive acoustic-monitoring data gathered before and after the spill in the vicinity of the accident, are presented.

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

PubMed

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores.

PubMed

Harmsen, Bart J; Foster, Rebecca J; Sanchez, Emma; Gutierrez-González, Carmina E; Silver, Scott C; Ostro, Linde E T; Kelly, Marcella J; Kay, Elma; Quigley, Howard

2017-01-01

In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002-2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of 'residents' consistently present and a fluctuating layer of 'transients'. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable 'transient' male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations.

Fir sawyer beetle-Siberian fir interaction modeling: resistance of fir stands to insect outbreaks

Treesearch

Tamara M. Ovtchinnikova; Victor V. Kiselev

1991-01-01

Entomological monitoring is part of a total ecological monitoring system. Its purpose is the identification, prognosis, and estimation of forest ecosystem impacts induced by insects. The entomological monitoring of a forest is based on a clear understanding of the role played by insects in forest ecosystems. The patterns of insect population dynamics in space and time...

Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect

PubMed Central

Ordano, Mariano; Engelhard, Izhar; Rempoulakis, Polychronis; Nemny-Lavy, Esther; Blum, Moshe; Yasin, Sami; Lensky, Itamar M.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.; Nestel, David

2015-01-01

Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics. PMID:26010332

Fort Collins Science Center: Species and Habitats of Federal Interest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Patty

2004-01-01

Ecosystem changes directly affect a wide variety of plant and animal species, floral and faunal communities, and groups of species such as amphibians and grassland birds. Appropriate management of public lands plays a crucial role in the conservation and recovery of endangered species and can be a key element in preventing a species from being listed under the Endangered Species Act. The Species and Habitats of Federal Interest Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) conducts research on the ecology, habitat requirements, distribution and abundance, population dynamics, and genetics and systematics of many species facing threatened or endangered status or of special concern to resource management agencies. FORT scientists develop reintroduction and restoration techniques, technologies for monitoring populations, and novel methods to analyze data on population trends and habitat requirements. FORT expertise encompasses both traditional and specialized natural resource disciplines within wildlife biology, including population dynamics, animal behavior, plant and community ecology, inventory and monitoring, statistics and computer applications, conservation genetics, stable isotope analysis, and curatorial expertise.

Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Mevin B.; DeVink, Jean-Michel; Koons, David N.

2015-01-01

An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup (Aythya) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

Why evolutionary biologists should get seriously involved in ecological monitoring and applied biodiversity assessment programs

PubMed Central

Brodersen, Jakob; Seehausen, Ole

2014-01-01

While ecological monitoring and biodiversity assessment programs are widely implemented and relatively well developed to survey and monitor the structure and dynamics of populations and communities in many ecosystems, quantitative assessment and monitoring of genetic and phenotypic diversity that is important to understand evolutionary dynamics is only rarely integrated. As a consequence, monitoring programs often fail to detect changes in these key components of biodiversity until after major loss of diversity has occurred. The extensive efforts in ecological monitoring have generated large data sets of unique value to macro-scale and long-term ecological research, but the insights gained from such data sets could be multiplied by the inclusion of evolutionary biological approaches. We argue that the lack of process-based evolutionary thinking in ecological monitoring means a significant loss of opportunity for research and conservation. Assessment of genetic and phenotypic variation within and between species needs to be fully integrated to safeguard biodiversity and the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in natural ecosystems. We illustrate our case with examples from fishes and conclude with examples of ongoing monitoring programs and provide suggestions on how to improve future quantitative diversity surveys. PMID:25553061

Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

PubMed

Sharma, Koustubh; Bayrakcismith, Rana; Tumursukh, Lkhagvasumberel; Johansson, Orjan; Sevger, Purevsuren; McCarthy, Tom; Mishra, Charudutt

2014-01-01

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25). Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15) and 0.77 (SE +-0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

Seasonal Population Dynamics of Three Potato Pests in Washington State.

PubMed

D'Auria, Elizabeth M; Wohleb, Carrie H; Waters, Timothy D; Crowder, David W

2016-08-01

Pest phenology models allow producers to anticipate pest outbreaks and deploy integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Phenology models are particularly useful for cropping systems with multiple economically damaging pests throughout a season. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) crops of Washington State, USA, are attacked by many insect pests including the potato tuberworm (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller), the beet leafhopper (Circulifer tenellus Baker), and the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae Sulzer). Each of these pests directly damages potato foliage or tubers; C. tenellus and M. persicae also transmit pathogens that can drastically reduce potato yields. We monitored the seasonal population dynamics of these pests by conducting weekly sampling on a network of commercial farms from 2007 to 2014. Using these data, we developed phenology models to characterize the seasonal population dynamics of each pest based on accumulated degree-days (DD). All three pests exhibited consistent population dynamics across seasons that were mediated by temperature. Of the three pests, C. tenellus was generally the first detected in potato crops, with 90% of adults captured by 936 DD. In contrast, populations of P. operculella and M. persicae built up more slowly over the course of the season, with 90% cumulative catch by 1,590 and 2,634 DD, respectively. Understanding these seasonal patterns could help potato producers plan their IPM strategies while allowing them to move away from calendar-based applications of insecticides. More broadly, our results show how long-term monitoring studies that explore dynamics of multiple pest species can aid in developing IPM strategies in crop systems. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2015-01-01

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

Monitoring the welfare of polar bear populations in a rapidly changing Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atwood, Todd C.; Duncan, Colleen G.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.

2017-01-01

Most programs for monitoring the welfare of wildlife populations support efforts aimed at reaching discrete management objectives, like mitigating conflict with humans. While such programs can be effective, their limited scope may preclude systemic evaluations needed for large-scale conservation initiatives, like the recovery of at-risk species. We discuss select categories of metrics that can be used to monitor how polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are responding to the primary threat to their long-term persistence—loss of sea ice habitat due to the unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG; e.g., CO2) concentrations—that can also provide information on ecosystem function and health. Monitoring key aspects of polar bear population dynamics, spatial behavior, health and resiliency can provide valuable insight into ecosystem state and function, and could be a powerful tool for achieving Arctic conservation objectives, particularly those that have transnational policy implications.

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the "Testing Matrix Models" working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Vigorous Dynamics Underlie a Stable Population of the Endangered Snow Leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia

PubMed Central

Sharma, Koustubh; Bayrakcismith, Rana; Tumursukh, Lkhagvasumberel; Johansson, Orjan; Sevger, Purevsuren; McCarthy, Tom; Mishra, Charudutt

2014-01-01

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+−0.25). Comparison of model results with the “known population” of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+−0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+−0.15) and 0.77 (SE +−0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +−0.19 and 0.68, SE +−0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+−0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation. PMID:25006879

Development of microbial genome-probing microarrays using digital multiple displacement amplification of uncultivated microbial single cells.

PubMed

Chang, Ho-Won; Sung, Youlboong; Kim, Kyoung-Ho; Nam, Young-Do; Roh, Seong Woon; Kim, Min-Soo; Jeon, Che Ok; Bae, Jin-Woo

2008-08-15

A crucial problem in the use of previously developed genome-probing microarrays (GPM) has been the inability to use uncultivated bacterial genomes to take advantage of the high sensitivity and specificity of GPM in microbial detection and monitoring. We show here a method, digital multiple displacement amplification (MDA), to amplify and analyze various genomes obtained from single uncultivated bacterial cells. We used 15 genomes from key microbes involved in dichloromethane (DCM)-dechlorinating enrichment as microarray probes to uncover the bacterial population dynamics of samples without PCR amplification. Genomic DNA amplified from single cells originating from uncultured bacteria with 80.3-99.4% similarity to 16S rRNA genes of cultivated bacteria. The digital MDA-GPM method successfully monitored the dynamics of DCM-dechlorinating communities from different phases of enrichment status. Without a priori knowledge of microbial diversity, the digital MDA-GPM method could be designed to monitor most microbial populations in a given environmental sample.

Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores

PubMed Central

Harmsen, Bart J.; Foster, Rebecca J.; Sanchez, Emma; Gutierrez-González, Carmina E.; Silver, Scott C.; Ostro, Linde E. T.; Kelly, Marcella J.; Kay, Elma; Quigley, Howard

2017-01-01

In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002–2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of ‘residents’ consistently present and a fluctuating layer of ‘transients’. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable ‘transient’ male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations. PMID:28658274

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Population dynamics of Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis)

Treesearch

L. L. Severinghaus

1997-01-01

Monthly visits to Lanyu Island have been made to study Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis) since 1986. This population has been surveyed by regular census and playback counts, by color banding, by monitoring the survival, reproduction and movements of individual owls, and by mapping and documenting the change in nest trees.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Wavepacket dynamics of a Rydberg atom monitored by a pair of time-delayed laser pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, PeiPei; Cheng, Hong; Zhang, ShanShan; Wang, HanMu; Liu, HongPing

2018-02-01

We have investigated the Rydberg state population of an argon atom by an intense laser pulse and its wavepacket dynamics monitored by another successive laser pulse in the tunneling regime. A wavepacket comprising a superposition of close high-lying Rydberg states is irradiated by a multicycle laser pulse, where the sub-wave components in the wavepacket have fixed relative phases. A time-delayed second laser pulse is employed to apply on the excited Rydberg atom. If the time is properly chosen, one of the sub-wave components will be guided towards the ionization area while the rest remains intact. By means of this pump-probe technique, we could control and monitor the Rydberg wavepacket dynamics and reveal some interesting phenomenon such as the survival rate of individual Rydberg states related to the classical orbital period of electron.

Two-photon imaging of spatially extended neuronal network dynamics with high temporal resolution.

PubMed

Lillis, Kyle P; Eng, Alfred; White, John A; Mertz, Jerome

2008-07-30

We describe a simple two-photon fluorescence imaging strategy, called targeted path scanning (TPS), to monitor the dynamics of spatially extended neuronal networks with high spatiotemporal resolution. Our strategy combines the advantages of mirror-based scanning, minimized dead time, ease of implementation, and compatibility with high-resolution low-magnification objectives. To demonstrate the performance of TPS, we monitor the calcium dynamics distributed across an entire juvenile rat hippocampus (>1.5mm), at scan rates of 100 Hz, with single cell resolution and single action potential sensitivity. Our strategy for fast, efficient two-photon microscopy over spatially extended regions provides a particularly attractive solution for monitoring neuronal population activity in thick tissue, without sacrificing the signal-to-noise ratio or high spatial resolution associated with standard two-photon microscopy. Finally, we provide the code to make our technique generally available.

Combining noninvasive genetics and a new mammalian sex-linked marker provides new tools to investigate population size, structure and individual behaviour: An application to bats.

PubMed

Zarzoso-Lacoste, Diane; Jan, Pierre-Loup; Lehnen, Lisa; Girard, Thomas; Besnard, Anne-Laure; Puechmaille, Sebastien J; Petit, Eric J

2018-03-01

Monitoring wild populations is crucial for their effective management. Noninvasive genetic methods provide robust data from individual free-ranging animals, which can be used in capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models to estimate demographic parameters without capturing or disturbing them. However, sex- and status-specific behaviour, which may lead to differences in detection probabilities, is rarely considered in monitoring. Here, we investigated population size, sex ratio, sex- and status-related behaviour in 19 Rhinolophus hipposideros maternity colonies (Northern France) with a noninvasive genetic CMR approach (using faeces) combined with parentage assignments. The use of the DDX3X/Y-Mam sexual marker designed in this study, which shows inter- and intrachromosomal length polymorphism across placental mammals, together with eight polymorphic microsatellite markers, produced high-quality genetic data with limited genotyping errors and allowed us to reliably distinguish different categories of individuals (males, reproductive and nonreproductive females) and to estimate population sizes. We showed that visual counts represent well-adult female numbers and that population composition in maternity colonies changes dynamically during the summer. Before parturition, colonies mainly harbour pregnant and nonpregnant females with a few visiting males, whereas after parturition, colonies are mainly composed of mothers and their offspring with a few visiting nonmothers and males. Our approach gives deeper insight into sex- and status-specific behaviour, a prerequisite for understanding population dynamics and developing effective monitoring and management strategies. Provided sufficient samples can be obtained, this approach can be readily applied to a wide range of species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trends in snag populations in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests (1997-2007)

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Scott C. Vojta

2012-01-01

Snags provide important biological legacies, resources for numerous species of native wildlife, and contribute to decay dynamics and ecological processes in forested ecosystems. We monitored trends in snag populations from 1997 to 2007 in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws) forests, northern Arizona. Median snag density...

Demography of Mexican spotted owls in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Gary C. White; James P. Ward; Sean C. Kyle; Darrell L. Apprill; Todd A. Rawlinson; Ryan S. Jonnes

2014-01-01

Information on population dynamics is key to gauging the status of threatened or endangered species. We monitored demography of a population of threatened Mexican spotted owls (Strix occidentalis lucida) in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico from 2003 to 2011. We estimated reproductive output for territorial pairs of owls; used mark-recapture methodology and Pradel...

Detection, diversity, and population dynamics of waterborne Phytophthora ramorum populations

Treesearch

Catherine Eyre; Matteo Garbelotto

2015-01-01

Sudden oak death, the tree disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has significant environmental and economic impacts on natural forests on the U.S. west coast, plantations in the United Kingdom, and in the worldwide nursery trade. Stream baiting is vital for monitoring and early detection of the pathogen in high-risk areas and is performed...

Seasonal population dynamics of Homalodisca vitripennis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in sweet orange trees maintained under continuous deficit irrigation.

PubMed

Krugner, Rodrigo; Groves, Russell L; Johnson, Marshall W; Flores, Arnel P; Hagler, James R; Morse, Joseph G

2009-06-01

A 2-yr study was conducted in a citrus orchard (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck cultivar Valencia) to determine the influence of plant water stress on the population dynamics of glassy-winged sharpshooter, Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar). Experimental treatments included irrigation at 100% of the crop evapotranspiration rate (ET(c)) and continuous deficit-irrigation regimens at 80 and 60% ET(c). Microclimate and plant conditions monitored included temperature and humidity in the tree canopy, leaf surface temperature, water potential, and fruit quality and yield. Glassy-winged sharpshooter population densities and activity were monitored weekly by a combination of visual inspections, beat net sampling, and trapping. Glassy-winged sharpshooter populations were negatively affected by severe plant water stress; however, population densities were not linearly related to decreasing water availability in plants. Citrus trees irrigated at 60% ET(c) had significantly warmer leaves, lower xylem water potential, and consequently hosted fewer glassy-winged sharpshooter eggs, nymphs, and adults than trees irrigated at 80% ET(c). Citrus trees irrigated at 100% ET(c) hosted similar numbers of glassy-winged sharpshooter stages as trees irrigated at 60% ET(c) and a lower number of glassy-winged sharpshooter nymphs than the 80% ET(c) treatment, specifically during the nymphal density peak in mid-April to early July. Irrigation treatments did not affect populations of monitored natural enemies. Although the adult glassy-winged sharpshooter population was reduced, on average, by 50% in trees under severe water stress, the total number of fruit and number of fruit across several fruit grade categories were significantly lower in the 60% ET(c) than in the 80 and 100% ET(c) irrigation treatments.

Cytonuclear genetics of experimental fish hybrid zones inside Biosphere 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, K.T.; Avise, John C.

1994-01-01

Two species of mosquitofish (family Poeciliidae) known to hybridize in nature were introduced into freshwater habitats inside Biosphere 2, and their population genetics were monitored after 2 years. Within four to six generations, nuclear and cytoplasmic markers characteristic of Gambusia holbrooki had risen greatly in frequency, although some Gambusia affinis alleles and haplotypes were retained primarily in recombinant genotypes, indicative of introgressive hybridization. The temporal cytonuclear dynamics proved similar to population genetic changes observed in replicated experimental hybrid populations outside of Biosphere 2, thus indicating strong directional selection favoring G. holbrooki genotypes across the range of environments monitored. When interpreted in the context of species-specific population demographies observed previously, results suggest that the extremely rapid evolution in these zones of secondary contact is attributable primarily to species differences in life-history traits.

Estimating golden-cheeked warbler immigration: Implications for the spatial scale of conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duarte, A.; Weckerly, F.W.; Schaub, M.; Hatfield, Jeffrey S.

2016-01-01

Understanding the factors that drive population dynamics is fundamental to species conservation and management. Since the golden-cheeked warbler Setophaga chrysoparia was first listed as endangered, much effort has taken place to monitor warbler abundance, occupancy, reproduction and survival. Yet, despite being directly related to local population dynamics, movement rates have not been estimated for the species. We used an integrated population model to investigate the relationship between immigration rate, fledging rate, survival probabilities and population growth rate for warblers in central Texas, USA. Furthermore, using a deterministic projection model, we examined the response required by vital rates to maintain a viable population across varying levels of immigration. Warbler abundance fluctuated with an overall positive trend across years. In the absence of immigration, the abundance would have decreased. However, the population could remain viable without immigration if both adult and juvenile survival increased by almost half or if juvenile survival more than doubled. We also investigated the response required by fledging rates across a range of immigration in order to maintain a viable population. Overall, we found that immigration was required to maintain warbler target populations, indicating that warbler conservation and management programs need to be implemented at larger spatial scales than current efforts to be effective. This study also demonstrates that by using limited data within integrated population models, biologists are able to monitor multiple key demographic parameters simultaneously to gauge the efficacy of strategies designed to maximize warbler viability in a changing landscape.

Effect of wearable sensor dynamics on physical activity estimates: A comparison between SCI vs. healthy individuals.

PubMed

Jayaraman, C; Mummidisetty, C K; Jayaraman, A

2016-08-01

Accuracy of physical activity estimates predicted by activity monitoring technologies may be affected by device location, analysis algorithms, type of technology (i.e. wearable/stickable) and population demographics (disability) being studied. Consequently, the main purpose of this investigation was to study such sensor dynamics (i.e. effect of device location, type and population demographics on energy expenditure estimates) of two commercial activity monitors. It was hypothesized that device location, population studied (disability), choice of proprietary algorithm and type of technology used will significantly impact the accuracy of the predicted physical activity metrics. 10 healthy controls and eight individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) performed structured activities in a laboratory environment. All participants wore, (i) three ActiGraph-G3TX's one each on their wrist, waist & ankle, (ii) a stickable activity monitor (Metria-IH1) on their upper-arm and (3) a Cosmed-K4B 2 metabolic unit, while performing sedentary (lying), low intensity (walk 50 steps at self-speed) and vigorous activity (a 6 minute walk test). To validate the hypothesis, the energy expenditures (EE) predicted by ActiGraph-GT3X and Metria-IH1 were benchmarked with estimated EE per Cosmed K4B 2 metabolic unit. To verify the step count accuracy predicted by ActiGraph-GT3X's and Metria-IH1, the manually calculated step count during the low intensity activity were compared to estimates from both devices. Results suggest that Metria-IH1 out-performed ActiGraph-GT3X in estimating EE during sedentary activity in both groups. The device location and population demographics, significantly affected the accuracy of predicted estimates. In conclusion, selecting activity monitor locations, analysis algorithm and choice of technology plays based on the movement threshold of population being studied can pave a better way for reliable healthcare decisions and data analytics in population with SCI.

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Niels M.; Ims, Rolf A.; Høye, Toke T.; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H.; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Sittler, Benoit

2012-01-01

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988–2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state. PMID:22977153

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles.

PubMed

Schmidt, Niels M; Ims, Rolf A; Høye, Toke T; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C; Sittler, Benoit

2012-11-07

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.

Changes in snag populations in northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, 1997-2002

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Scott C. Vojta

2005-01-01

Snags (standing dead trees) are important components of forests that contribute to ecological processes and provide habitat for many life forms. We monitored dynamics of snag populations on 1-ha plots in southwestern mixed-conifer (n = 53 plots) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, n = 60 plots) forests in north-central Arizona from 1997 to 2002. Of...

Prediction of Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) population dynamics in Montana, USA, using satellite-driven vegetation productivity and weather data

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Joran Elias; Richard J. Douglass; Amy J. Kuenzi; James N. Mills; Kent Wagoner

2012-01-01

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for...

Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland-dependent species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Andrew M.; Gould, William R.; Hossack, Blake R.; Sepulveda, Adam; Thoma, David P.; Patla, Debra A.; Daley, Rob; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.

2016-01-01

Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits.

The Stochastic Multi-strain Dengue Model: Analysis of the Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Maíra; Stollenwerk, Nico; Kooi, Bob W.

2011-09-01

Dengue dynamics is well known to be particularly complex with large fluctuations of disease incidences. An epidemic multi-strain model motivated by dengue fever epidemiology shows deterministic chaos in wide parameter regions. The addition of seasonal forcing, mimicking the vectorial dynamics, and a low import of infected individuals, which is realistic in the dynamics of infectious diseases epidemics show complex dynamics and qualitatively a good agreement between empirical DHF monitoring data and the obtained model simulation. The addition of noise can explain the fluctuations observed in the empirical data and for large enough population size, the stochastic system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton.

TRACKING THE RESPONSE OF BURKHOLDERIA CEPACIA G4 5223-PR1 IN AQUIFER MICROCOSMS

EPA Science Inventory

The introduction of bacteria into the environment for bioremediation purposes (bioaugmentation) requires analysis and monitoring of microbial population dynamics to define persistence and activity from both efficacy and risk assessment perspectives, Burkholderia cepacia G4 5223-P...

A new attractant for monitoring western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis in protected crops.

PubMed

Abdullah, Zayed S; Greenfield, Bethany Pj; Ficken, Katherine J; Taylor, James Wd; Wood, Martyn; Butt, Tariq M

2015-01-01

Monitoring of pest populations is an essential component of integrated pest management. An early warning system helps growers decide when best to take control measures, or when to alter them, should a control method prove inadequate. Studies have shown that adding chemical attractants to sticky cards can increase trap catch of western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis, a global pest of agriculture and horticulture, giving more accurate accounts of population size and dynamics, thus leading to more efficient monitoring. We identify a novel semiochemical to the species, (S)-(-)-verbenone, showing that addition of this compound to sticky traps significantly increased F. occidentalis catch in two geographically distinct populations, infesting two unrelated crops of global economic importance. We validate through field trials that (S)-(-)-verbenone is highly attractive to F.occidentalis and can be used with blue sticky traps to enhance trap catch, leading to better estimations of pest population densities. The compound may be used in other control methods against F.occidentalis such as lure and kill, mass trapping and push-pull.

A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations

PubMed Central

Tran, Annelise; L’Ambert, Grégory; Lacour, Guillaume; Benoît, Romain; Demarchi, Marie; Cros, Myriam; Cailly, Priscilla; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Balenghien, Thomas; Ezanno, Pauline

2013-01-01

The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model’s main control points were related to adult’s mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies. PMID:23624579

Monitoring population status of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska: options and considerations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esslinger, George G.; Esler, Daniel N.; Howlin, S.; Starcevich, L.A.

2015-06-25

After many decades of absence from southeast Alaska, sea otters (Enhydra lutris) are recolonizing parts of their former range, including Glacier Bay, Alaska. Sea otters are well known for structuring nearshore ecosystems and causing community-level changes such as increases in kelp abundance and changes in the size and number of other consumers. Monitoring population status of sea otters in Glacier Bay will help park researchers and managers understand and interpret sea otter-induced ecosystem changes relative to other sources of variation, including potential human-induced impacts such as ocean acidification, vessel disturbance, and oil spills. This report was prepared for the National Park Service (NPS), Southeast Alaska Inventory and Monitoring Network following a request for evaluation of options for monitoring sea otter population status in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. To meet this request, we provide a detailed consideration of the primary method of assessment of abundance and distribution, aerial surveys, including analyses of power to detect interannual trends and designs to reduce variation around annual abundance estimates. We also describe two alternate techniques for evaluating sea otter population status—(1) quantifying sea otter diets and energy intake rates, and (2) detecting change in ages at death. In addition, we provide a brief section on directed research to identify studies that would further our understanding of sea otter population dynamics and effects on the Glacier Bay ecosystem, and provide context for interpreting results of monitoring activities.

Locking horns with Hawai‘i’s non-native ungulate issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steve

2014-01-01

Conservation and management interests for sustained-yield hunting of non-native ungulates in Hawai‘i have conflicted with the conservation of native biota for several decades. Hawaiian ecosystems evolved in the absence of large mammals and all currently hunted animals in Hawai‘i are non-native species. The best-studied aspects of Hawai‘i’s ungulates have dealt primarily with direct negative effects on native biota in natural areas, but there has been little research in population dynamics for sustained-yield management. Ungulates have been removed from approximately 750 km2 throughout the Hawaiian Islands to protect these natural areas, thereby reducing the amount of land area available for hunting activities and the maintenance of game populations. At the same time, unauthorized introductions of additional wild ungulate species between Hawaiian Islands have recently increased in frequency. The majority of hunting activities are of feral domestic livestock species for subsistence purposes, which typically do not generate sufficient revenue to offset costs of game management. Moreover, bag limits and seasons are generally not determined from biological criteria because harvest reporting is voluntary and game populations are rarely monitored. Consequently, ungulate populations cannot be managed for any particular level of abundance or other objectives. Research and monitoring which emphasize population dynamics and productivity would enable more precisely regulated sustained-yield game management programs and may reduce potential conflicts with the conservation of native biota.

Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data

PubMed Central

Geremia, Chris; Miller, Michael W.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Antolin, Michael F.; Hobbs, N. Thompson

2015-01-01

Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon. PMID:26509806

Golden Eagle Monitoring Plan for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, David; Kolar, Patrick; Katzner, Todd

2018-01-01

This report describes options for monitoring the status and population trends of the golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) area of Southern California in maintaining stable or increasing population in the planning area. The report profiles the ecology of golden eagles in the region and provides a range of potential sampling options to address monitoring needs and objectives. This approach also focused on links between changes in human land-use, golden eagle nesting and foraging habitat conditions, and population dynamics. The report outlines how monitoring data from demographic, prey, and habitat studies were used to develop a predictive demographic model for golden eagles in the DRECP area. Results from the model simulations suggest increases in renewable energy development could have negative consequences for population trajectories. Results also suggest site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative impacts to the local population of eagles. A monitoring framework is proposed including: (1) annual assessments of site-occupancy and reproduction by territorial pairs of golden eagles (including rates at which sites become colonized or vacated over time); (2) estimates of survival, movements, and intensity of use of landscapes by breeding and non-breeding golden eagles; (3) periodic (conducted every two to four years) assessments of nesting and foraging habitats, prey populations, and associations with land-use and management activities; and (4) updating the predictive demographic model with new information obtained on eagles and associated population stressors. The results of this research were published in the Journal of Rapture Research, Wiens, David,Inman, Rich D., Esque, Todd C., Longshore, Kathleen M. and Nussear, Kenneth (2017). Spatial Demographic Models to Inform Conservation Planning of Golden Eagles in Renewable Energy Landscapes. 51(3):234-257.

What does remote sensing do for ecology?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roughgarden, J.; Running, S. W.; Matson, P. A.

1991-01-01

The application of remote sensing to ecological investigations is briefly discussed. Emphasis is given to the recruitment problem in marine population dynamics, the regional analysis of terrestrial ecosystems, and the monitoring of ecological changes. Impediments to the use of remote sensing data in ecology are addressed.

REGIONAL DYNAMICS OF WETLAND-BREEDING FROGS AND TOADS: TURNOVER AND SYNCHRONY

EPA Science Inventory

We used data from a statewide frog monitoring network to investigate population turnover and synchrony in eight wetland-breeding species. We found that subpopulations at many sites turn over frequently, with breeding choruses absent or undetectable in most years. Frequencies of d...

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Arnold, Todd W; Schaub, Michael

2017-10-01

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Design to monitor trend in abundance and presence of American beaver (Castor canadensis) at the national forest scale.

PubMed

Beck, Jeffrey L; Dauwalter, Daniel C; Gerow, Kenneth G; Hayward, Gregory D

2010-05-01

Wildlife conservationists design monitoring programs to assess population dynamics, project future population states, and evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations. Because agency mandates and conservation laws call for monitoring data to elicit management responses, it is imperative to design programs that match the administrative scale for which management decisions are made. We describe a program to monitor population trends in American beaver (Castor canadensis) on the US Department of Agriculture, Black Hills National Forest (BHNF) in southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming, USA. Beaver have been designated as a management indicator species on the BHNF because of their association with riparian and aquatic habitats and its status as a keystone species. We designed our program to monitor the density of beaver food caches (abundance) within sampling units with beaver and the proportion of sampling units with beavers present at the scale of a national forest. We designated watersheds as sampling units in a stratified random sampling design that we developed based on habitat modeling results. Habitat modeling indicated that the most suitable beaver habitat was near perennial water, near aspen (Populus tremuloides) and willow (Salix spp.), and in low gradient streams at lower elevations. Results from the initial monitoring period in October 2007 allowed us to assess costs and logistical considerations, validate our habitat model, and conduct power analyses to assess whether our sampling design could detect the level of declines in beaver stated in the monitoring objectives. Beaver food caches were located in 20 of 52 sampled watersheds. Monitoring 20 to 25 watersheds with beaver should provide sufficient power to detect 15-40% declines in the beaver food cache index as well as a twofold decline in the odds of beaver being present in watersheds. Indices of abundance, such as the beaver food cache index, provide a practical measure of population status to conduct long-term monitoring across broad landscapes such as national forests.

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

2017-07-20

For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Numeric, Agent-based or System Dynamics Model? Which Modeling Approach is the Best for Vast Population Simulation?

PubMed

Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

2018-01-01

Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25% of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

2011-01-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

PubMed

Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life-history traits in the two ecotypes, which, in turn, affect population dynamics. M-slow populations have evolved life-history traits that buffer fitness against direct effects of variation in reproduction and that spread lifetime reproduction across a greater number of reproductive bouts. These results highlight the importance of long-term demographic and environmental monitoring and of incorporating temporal dynamics into empirical studies of life-history evolution.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice.

PubMed

Dobay, Akos; Pilo, Paola; Lindholm, Anna K; Origgi, Francesco; Bagheri, Homayoun C; König, Barbara

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice

PubMed Central

Dobay, Akos; Pilo, Paola; Lindholm, Anna K.; Origgi, Francesco; Bagheri, Homayoun C.; König, Barbara

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R 0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R 0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics. PMID:26536232

Managing North American waterfowl in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1995-01-01

Informed management of waterfowl (or any animal population) requires management goals and objectives, the ability to implement management actions, periodic information about population and goal-related varlables, and knowledge of effects of management actions on population and goal-related variables. In North America, international treaties mandate a primary objective of protecting migratory bird populations, with a secondary objective of providing hunting opportunity in a manner compatible with such protection. Through the years, annual establishment of hunting regulations and acquisition and man-agement of habitat have been the primary management actions taken by federal agencies. Various information-gathering programs were established and, by the 1960s, had developed into arguably the best monitoring system in the world for continentally distributed animal populations. Retrospective analyses using estimates from this monitoring system have been used to investigate effects of management actions on waterfowl population and harvest dynamics, but key relationships arc still characterized by uncertainty. We recommend actively adaptive management as an approach that can meet short-term harvest objectives, while reducing uncertainty and ensuring sustainable populations over the long-term.

PREDICTION OF PEROMYSCUS MANICULATUS (DEER MOUSE) POPULATION DYNAMICS IN MONTANA, USA, USING SATELLITE-DRIVEN VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND WEATHER DATA

PubMed Central

Loehman, Rachel A.; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J.; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Mills, James N.; Wagoner, Kent

2013-01-01

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000–06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated. PMID:22493110

Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

2014-01-01

Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

The within-host population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis vary with treatment efficacy.

PubMed

Trauner, Andrej; Liu, Qingyun; Via, Laura E; Liu, Xin; Ruan, Xianglin; Liang, Lili; Shi, Huimin; Chen, Ying; Wang, Ziling; Liang, Ruixia; Zhang, Wei; Wei, Wang; Gao, Jingcai; Sun, Gang; Brites, Daniela; England, Kathleen; Zhang, Guolong; Gagneux, Sebastien; Barry, Clifton E; Gao, Qian

2017-04-19

Combination therapy is one of the most effective tools for limiting the emergence of drug resistance in pathogens. Despite the widespread adoption of combination therapy across diseases, drug resistance rates continue to rise, leading to failing treatment regimens. The mechanisms underlying treatment failure are well studied, but the processes governing successful combination therapy are poorly understood. We address this question by studying the population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within tuberculosis patients undergoing treatment with different combinations of antibiotics. By combining very deep whole genome sequencing (~1000-fold genome-wide coverage) with sequential sputum sampling, we were able to detect transient genetic diversity driven by the apparently continuous turnover of minor alleles, which could serve as the source of drug-resistant bacteria. However, we report that treatment efficacy has a clear impact on the population dynamics: sufficient drug pressure bears a clear signature of purifying selection leading to apparent genetic stability. In contrast, M. tuberculosis populations subject to less drug pressure show markedly different dynamics, including cases of acquisition of additional drug resistance. Our findings show that for a pathogen like M. tuberculosis, which is well adapted to the human host, purifying selection constrains the evolutionary trajectory to resistance in effectively treated individuals. Nonetheless, we also report a continuous turnover of minor variants, which could give rise to the emergence of drug resistance in cases of drug pressure weakening. Monitoring bacterial population dynamics could therefore provide an informative metric for assessing the efficacy of novel drug combinations.

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

DOE PAGES

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; ...

2016-02-29

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on amore » literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.« less

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

PubMed Central

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change. PMID:26929338

Mapping the Complete Reaction Path of a Complex Photochemical Reaction.

PubMed

Smith, Adam D; Warne, Emily M; Bellshaw, Darren; Horke, Daniel A; Tudorovskya, Maria; Springate, Emma; Jones, Alfred J H; Cacho, Cephise; Chapman, Richard T; Kirrander, Adam; Minns, Russell S

2018-05-04

We probe the dynamics of dissociating CS_{2} molecules across the entire reaction pathway upon excitation. Photoelectron spectroscopy measurements using laboratory-generated femtosecond extreme ultraviolet pulses monitor the competing dissociation, internal conversion, and intersystem crossing dynamics. Dissociation occurs either in the initially excited singlet manifold or, via intersystem crossing, in the triplet manifold. Both product channels are monitored and show that, despite being more rapid, the singlet dissociation is the minor product and that triplet state products dominate the final yield. We explain this by a consideration of accurate potential energy curves for both the singlet and triplet states. We propose that rapid internal conversion stabilizes the singlet population dynamically, allowing for singlet-triplet relaxation via intersystem crossing and the efficient formation of spin-forbidden dissociation products on longer timescales. The study demonstrates the importance of measuring the full reaction pathway for defining accurate reaction mechanisms.

Mapping the Complete Reaction Path of a Complex Photochemical Reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Adam D.; Warne, Emily M.; Bellshaw, Darren; Horke, Daniel A.; Tudorovskya, Maria; Springate, Emma; Jones, Alfred J. H.; Cacho, Cephise; Chapman, Richard T.; Kirrander, Adam; Minns, Russell S.

2018-05-01

We probe the dynamics of dissociating CS2 molecules across the entire reaction pathway upon excitation. Photoelectron spectroscopy measurements using laboratory-generated femtosecond extreme ultraviolet pulses monitor the competing dissociation, internal conversion, and intersystem crossing dynamics. Dissociation occurs either in the initially excited singlet manifold or, via intersystem crossing, in the triplet manifold. Both product channels are monitored and show that, despite being more rapid, the singlet dissociation is the minor product and that triplet state products dominate the final yield. We explain this by a consideration of accurate potential energy curves for both the singlet and triplet states. We propose that rapid internal conversion stabilizes the singlet population dynamically, allowing for singlet-triplet relaxation via intersystem crossing and the efficient formation of spin-forbidden dissociation products on longer timescales. The study demonstrates the importance of measuring the full reaction pathway for defining accurate reaction mechanisms.

Discovery of SNPs for individual identification by reduced representation sequencing of moose (Alces alces).

PubMed

Blåhed, Ida-Maria; Königsson, Helena; Ericsson, Göran; Spong, Göran

2018-01-01

Monitoring of wild animal populations is challenging, yet reliable information about population processes is important for both management and conservation efforts. Access to molecular markers, such as SNPs, enables population monitoring through genotyping of various DNA sources. We have developed 96 high quality SNP markers for individual identification of moose (Alces alces), an economically and ecologically important top-herbivore in boreal regions. Reduced representation libraries constructed from 34 moose were high-throughput de novo sequenced, generating nearly 50 million read pairs. About 50 000 stacks of aligned reads containing one or more SNPs were discovered with the Stacks pipeline. Several quality criteria were applied on the candidate SNPs to find markers informative on the individual level and well representative for the population. An empirical validation by genotyping of sequenced individuals and additional moose, resulted in the selection of a final panel of 86 high quality autosomal SNPs. Additionally, five sex-specific SNPs and five SNPs for sympatric species diagnostics are included in the panel. The genotyping error rate was 0.002 for the total panel and probability of identities were low enough to separate individuals with high confidence. Moreover, the autosomal SNPs were highly informative also for population level analyses. The potential applications of this SNP panel are thus many including investigations of population size, sex ratios, relatedness, reproductive success and population structure. Ideally, SNP-based studies could improve today's population monitoring and increase our knowledge about moose population dynamics.

Insights into the Introduction History and Population Genetic Dynamics of the Nile Monitor (Varanus niloticus) in Florida

PubMed Central

Dowell, Stephanie A.; Campbell, Todd S.

2016-01-01

Invasive species are widely recognized as important drivers of the ongoing biodiversity crisis. The US state of Florida is especially susceptible to the proliferation of invasive reptiles, and nonnative lizards currently outnumber native lizard species. At present, there are 3 documented breeding populations of the Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) in different regions of Southern Florida, and these populations are considered potential dangers to threatened, fossorial endemics, such as burrowing owls, American crocodiles, and gopher tortoises. Nevertheless, at present, both the introduction histories of these populations and the degree to which they are connected by gene flow are not known. To address these issues, we genotyped V. niloticus from Cape Coral, Homestead Air Reserve Base, and West Palm Beach at 17 microsatellite loci and conducted a variety of analyses to assess both intrapopulation genetic diversity, the degree of gene flow between populations, and the most likely introduction scenario. The results of our analyses demonstrate that all 3 populations have limited genetic diversity (mean number of effective alleles across loci in all 3 populations ~ 2.00) and are highly differentiated from one another (G ST = 0.268; G″ST = 0.628). Our results also suggest that these populations resulted from independent introduction events that occurred within the past few decades. Consequently, we advise that wildlife managers focus management efforts on containment of existing populations and intensification of monitoring efforts on potential migration corridors. PMID:26971010

Ecological monitoring in a discrete-time prey-predator model.

PubMed

Gámez, M; López, I; Rodríguez, C; Varga, Z; Garay, J

2017-09-21

The paper is aimed at the methodological development of ecological monitoring in discrete-time dynamic models. In earlier papers, in the framework of continuous-time models, we have shown how a systems-theoretical methodology can be applied to the monitoring of the state process of a system of interacting populations, also estimating certain abiotic environmental changes such as pollution, climatic or seasonal changes. In practice, however, there may be good reasons to use discrete-time models. (For instance, there may be discrete cycles in the development of the populations, or observations can be made only at discrete time steps.) Therefore the present paper is devoted to the development of the monitoring methodology in the framework of discrete-time models of population ecology. By monitoring we mean that, observing only certain component(s) of the system, we reconstruct the whole state process. This may be necessary, e.g., when in a complex ecosystem the observation of the densities of certain species is impossible, or too expensive. For the first presentation of the offered methodology, we have chosen a discrete-time version of the classical Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. This is a minimal but not trivial system where the methodology can still be presented. We also show how this methodology can be applied to estimate the effect of an abiotic environmental change, using a component of the population system as an environmental indicator. Although this approach is illustrated in a simplest possible case, it can be easily extended to larger ecosystems with several interacting populations and different types of abiotic environmental effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hard Evidence for Melaleuca Biocontrol

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The population dynamics of a cohort of Melaleuca quinquenervia were monitored over a 5-y period in a cypress-pine wetland while subjected to two levels of herbivory. The trees were recruited during 1998-1999 after a destructive crown fire. Half of 26 experimental plots were sprayed every 4-6 weeks...

Population dynamics of stored maize insect pests in warehouses in two districts of Ghana

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding what insect species are present and their temporal and spatial patterns of distribution is important for developing a successful integrated pest management strategy for food storage in warehouses. Maize in many countries in Africa is stored in bags in warehouses, but little monitoring ...

Development of known-fate survival monitoring techniques for juvenile wild pigs (Sus scrofa)

Treesearch

David A. Keiter; John C. Kilgo; Mark A. Vukovich; Fred L. Cunningham; James C. Beasley

2017-01-01

Context. Wild pigs are an invasive species linked to numerous negative impacts on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems in many regions of the world. Robust estimates of juvenile wild pig survival are needed to improve population dynamics models to facilitate management of this economically and ecologically...

A web-based relational database for monitoring and analyzing mosquito population dynamics.

PubMed

Sucaet, Yves; Van Hemert, John; Tucker, Brad; Bartholomay, Lyric

2008-07-01

Mosquito population dynamics have been monitored on an annual basis in the state of Iowa since 1969. The primary goal of this project was to integrate light trap data from these efforts into a centralized back-end database and interactive website that is available through the internet at http://iowa-mosquito.ent.iastate.edu. For comparative purposes, all data were categorized according to the week of the year and normalized according to the number of traps running. Users can readily view current, weekly mosquito abundance compared with data from previous years. Additional interactive capabilities facilitate analyses of the data based on mosquito species, distribution, or a time frame of interest. All data can be viewed in graphical and tabular format and can be downloaded to a comma separated value (CSV) file for import into a spreadsheet or more specialized statistical software package. Having this long-term dataset in a centralized database/website is useful for informing mosquito and mosquito-borne disease control and for exploring the ecology of the species represented therein. In addition to mosquito population dynamics, this database is available as a standardized platform that could be modified and applied to a multitude of projects that involve repeated collection of observational data. The development and implementation of this tool provides capacity for the user to mine data from standard spreadsheets into a relational database and then view and query the data in an interactive website.

Status of the White-faced Ibis: Breeding colony dynamics of the Great Basin population, 1985-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earnst, S.L.; Neel, L.; Ivey, G.L.; Zimmerman, T.

1998-01-01

The status of the White-faced Ibis (Plegadis chihi) in the Great Basin is of concern because of its small population size and the limited and dynamic nature of its breeding habitat. We analyzed existing annual survey data for the White-faced Ibis breeding in the Great Basin and surrounding area for 1985-1997. Methods varied among colonies and included flight-line counts and fixed-wing aircraft and helicopter surveys. The number of White-faced Ibis breeding pairs in the Great Basin area has nearly tripled since 1985, despite years of severe flooding and drought at major breeding areas. This growth is reflected in both peripheral (i.e., Oregon, California, Idaho) and core (i.e., Nevada and Utah) components of the population. Our data on colony dynamics in Oregon and Nevada illustrate the ability of the highly nomadic White-faced Ibis to compensate for poor conditions at traditional colony sites by moving among colonies and rapidly colonizing newly available wetlands. We suggest that the White-faced Ibis would benefit from a landscape mosaic of well-distributed peripheral wetlands and persistent colony sites. The nomadic nature of the White-faced Ibis and the dynamic nature of their breeding habitat necessitates that wetland management decisions and population monitoring be conducted in a regional context.

Status of the white-faced ibis: Breeding colony dynamics of the Great Basin population, 1985-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Earnst, Susan L.; Neel, L.; Ivey, G.L.; Zimmerman, T.

1998-01-01

The status of the White-faced Ibis (Plegadis chihi) in the Great Basin is of concern because of its small population size and the limited and dynamic nature of its breeding habitat. We analyzed existing annual survey data for the White-faced Ibis breeding in the Great Basin and surrounding area for 1985-1997. Methods varied among colonies and included flight-line counts and fixed-wing aircraft and helicopter surveys. The number of White-faced Ibis breeding pairs in the Great Basin area has nearly tripled since 1985, despite years of severe flooding and drought at major breeding areas. This growth is reflected in both peripheral (i.e., Oregon, California, Idaho) and core (i.e., Nevada and Utah) components of the population. Our data on colony dynamics in Oregon and Nevada illustrate the ability of the highly nomadic White-faced Ibis to compensate for poor conditions at traditional colony sites by moving among colonies and rapidly colonizing newly available wetlands. We suggest that the White-faced Ibis would benefit from a landscape mosaic of well-distributed peripheral wetlands and persistent colony sites. The nomadic nature of the White-faced Ibis and the dynamic nature of their breeding habitat necessitates that wetland management decisions and population monitoring be conducted in a regional context.

Aphid Species and Population Dynamics Associated with Strawberry.

PubMed

Bernardi, D; Araujo, E S; Zawadneak, M A C; Botton, M; Mogor, A F; Garcia, M S

2013-12-01

Aphids are among the major pests associated with strawberries in Southern Brasil. In this study, we identified the main species that occur in strawberry fields in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. We also compared the effectiveness of different sampling methods and studied the population dynamics of aphid species during two strawberry crop cycles in the municipality of Pinhais, state of Paraná, Brasil. Chaetosiphon fragaefolii (Cockerell) and Aphis forbesi Weed were the main species associated with strawberry. The method of hit plant and the Möericke trap showed equal effectiveness to capture wingless and winged insects. The peak population of aphids in the state of Paraná occurred from September to November. This information can help producers to implement strategies to monitor and control the major aphid species that occur in strawberry culture.

Determinants of STD epidemics: implications for phase appropriate intervention strategies.

PubMed

Aral, S O

2002-04-01

Determinants of evolving epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are equally influenced by the evolution of the STD epidemics themselves and by the evolution of human societies. A temporal approach to STD transmission dynamics suggests the need to monitor infectivity, rate of exposure between infected and susceptible individuals, and duration of infectiousness in societies. Different indicators may be used to monitor rate of exposure in the general population and in core groups. In addition, underlying determinants of STD epidemics such as poverty, inequality, racial/ethnic discrimination, unemployment, sex ratio, volume of migration, and health care coverage and quality are important variables to monitor through a surveillance system focused on social context. Ongoing large scale societal changes including urbanisation, globalisation, increasing inequality, and increasing volume of migrant populations may affect the evolution of STD epidemics. Globalised STD epidemics could pose a major challenge to local public health systems.

In the hunt for genomic markers of metabolic resistance to pyrethroids in the mosquito Aedes aegypti: An integrated next-generation sequencing approach.

PubMed

Faucon, Frederic; Gaude, Thierry; Dusfour, Isabelle; Navratil, Vincent; Corbel, Vincent; Juntarajumnong, Waraporn; Girod, Romain; Poupardin, Rodolphe; Boyer, Frederic; Reynaud, Stephane; David, Jean-Philippe

2017-04-01

The capacity of Aedes mosquitoes to resist chemical insecticides threatens the control of major arbovirus diseases worldwide. Until alternative control tools are widely deployed, monitoring insecticide resistance levels and identifying resistance mechanisms in field mosquito populations is crucial for implementing appropriate management strategies. Metabolic resistance to pyrethroids is common in Aedes aegypti but the monitoring of the dynamics of resistant alleles is impeded by the lack of robust genomic markers. In an attempt to identify the genomic bases of metabolic resistance to deltamethrin, multiple resistant and susceptible populations originating from various continents were compared using both RNA-seq and a targeted DNA-seq approach focused on the upstream regions of detoxification genes. Multiple detoxification enzymes were over transcribed in resistant populations, frequently associated with an increase in their gene copy number. Targeted sequencing identified potential promoter variations associated with their over transcription. Non-synonymous variations affecting detoxification enzymes were also identified in resistant populations. This study not only confirmed the role of gene copy number variations as a frequent cause of the over expression of detoxification enzymes associated with insecticide resistance in Aedes aegypti but also identified novel genomic resistance markers potentially associated with their cis-regulation and modifications of their protein structure conformation. As for gene transcription data, polymorphism patterns were frequently conserved within regions but differed among continents confirming the selection of different resistance factors worldwide. Overall, this study paves the way of the identification of a comprehensive set of genomic markers for monitoring the spatio-temporal dynamics of the variety of insecticide resistance mechanisms in Aedes aegypti.

Dynamics of Small-Scale Perched Aquifers in the Semi-Arid South-Western Region of Madagascar and Implications for the Sustainable Groundwater Exploitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Englert, A.; Brinkmann, K.; Kobbe, S.; Buerkert, A.

2016-12-01

The south-western region of Madagascar is characterized by limited water resources throughout the year and recurrent droughts, which affect agricultural production and increase the risk of food insecurity. To deliver reliable estimates on the availability and dynamics of water resources, we studied the hydrogeology of several villages in the Mahafaly region. Detailed investigations were conducted for a selected village on a calcareous plateau to predict the local water resources under changing boundary conditions including enhanced water abstraction and changes in groundwater recharge. In 2014 a participatory monitoring network was established, which allowed groundwater level measurements in three wells twice a day. Additional hydrogeological investigations included pumping tests, automatic monitoring of meteorological data, daily groundwater abstraction appraisal and mapping of the spatial extent of the perched aquifer using satellite data. Analysis of the measured data unraveled the aquifer dynamic to be dominated by a groundwater level driven leakage process. The latter is superimposed by groundwater recharge in the rainy season and a daily groundwater abstraction. Based on these findings we developed a model for the aquifer, which allows to predict the duration of groundwater availability as a function of annual precipitation and daily water abstraction. The latter will be implemented in an agent-based land-use model, were groundwater abstraction is a function of population and livestock. The main objective is to model land use scenarios and global trends (climate, market trends and population development) through explicit imbedding of artificial and natural groundwater dynamics. The latter is expected to enable the evaluation of additional water abstraction for agricultural purposes without endangering water supply of the local population and their livestock.

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Numbers in the Yogyakarta Area of Java, Indonesia, With Implications for Wolbachia Releases.

PubMed

Tantowijoyo, W; Arguni, E; Johnson, P; Budiwati, N; Nurhayati, P I; Fitriana, I; Wardana, S; Ardiansyah, H; Turley, A P; Ryan, P; O'Neill, S L; Hoffmann, A A

2016-01-01

of mosquito vector populations, particularly through Wolbachia endosymbionts. The success of these strategies depends on understanding the dynamics of vector populations. In preparation for Wolbachia releases around Yogyakarta, we have studied Aedes populations in five hamlets. Adult monitoring with BioGent- Sentinel (BG-S) traps indicated that hamlet populations had different dynamics across the year; while there was an increase in Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) numbers in the wet season, species abundance remained relatively stable in some hamlets but changed markedly (>2 fold) in others. Local rainfall a month prior to monitoring partly predicted numbers of Ae. aegypti but not Ae. albopictus. Site differences in population size indicated by BG-S traps were also evident in ovitrap data. Egg or larval collections with ovitraps repeated at the same location suggested spatial autocorrelation (<250 m) in the areas of the hamlets where Ae. aegypti numbers were high. Overall, there was a weak negative association (r<0.43) between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus numbers in ovitraps when averaged across collections. Ae. albopictus numbers in ovitraps and BG-S traps were positively correlated with vegetation around areas where traps were placed, while Ae. aegypti were negatively correlated with this feature. These data inform intervention strategies by defining periods when mosquito densities are high, highlighting the importance of local site characteristics on populations, and suggesting relatively weak interactions between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They also indicate local areas within hamlets where consistently high mosquito densities may influence Wolbachia invasions and other interventions.

Fifty-sixth Christmas Bird Count. 147. Southern Dorchester County, Md

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, F.A.; Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Kendall, W.L.; Smith, G.W.; Caithamer, David F.

1956-01-01

Summary and Recommendations: We suggest that managers are approaching the limits of their ability to improve waterfowl harvest management, primarily because the information needed to make better decisions is being sacrificed by the current approach to setting regulations. We propose an actively adaptive management strategy in which regulatory decisions play a dominant role in reducing uncertainty about population dynamics. The proposed strategy recognizes 'value' in acquiring knowledge only to the extent that it contributes to the objective of optimizing harvests. To implement this strategy, managers will need: (1) a set of regulatory options, with possible constraints on their use; (2) quantifiable harvest management objectives; (3) a set of models that represent an array of meaningful hypotheses about the effects of regulations on populations; and (4) a measure of credibility (or likelihood) for each model, which can be updated regularly using information from waterfowl monitoring programs. Adaptive optimization is an iterative process in which the harvest-management policy converges over time to one that maximizes harvest under the most appropriate model. At each time step, an optimal regulatory decision is identified based on the state of the system and the model likelihoods. In the next time step, predicted population changes from the alternative models are compared with the actual changes provided by the monitoring program, The likelihoods are increased or decreased to the extent that predicted and actual population changes correspond. These updated likelihoods then are used in setting regulations in the next cycle and the process begins again. This iterative process produces the most informative regulations when uncertainty is prevalent and produces maximum sustainable yields as uncertainty is eliminated. We see no major obstacles to implementing this adaptive strategy, although there are a number of practical considerations. First and foremost, managers should assess the 'value' of learning. Only when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the effects of hunting regulations on population dynamics will the merit of our proposed strategy be evident. We suggest that this almost always will be true given our current understanding of the relationship between annual regulations, survival and population growth in waterfowl. Nonetheless, careful consideration should be given to formulating the set of alternative models. There is no value in distinguishing between models which differ in their mathematical formulation or biological realism, but which suggest similar harvest strategies. We suspect that 'mechanistic' models (i.e., those that attempt to capture the essence of biological processes) will make better candidates for model sets than so-called 'phenomenological' models. Assuming that all model sets include a good approximation of reality, learning rates will be dependent on the quality of monitoring programs. Fortunately, a variety of high-quality monitoring plans for many duck and goose populations of North America, when used with our adaptive approach, should provide new knowledge about population dynamics and response to hunting, and, thus, lead to improved management.

Design of a Gaze-Sensitive Virtual Social Interactive System for Children With Autism

PubMed Central

Lahiri, Uttama; Warren, Zachary; Sarkar, Nilanjan

2013-01-01

Impairments in social communication skills are thought to be core deficits in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). In recent years, several assistive technologies, particularly Virtual Reality (VR), have been investigated to promote social interactions in this population. It is well known that children with ASD demonstrate atypical viewing patterns during social interactions and thus monitoring eye-gaze can be valuable to design intervention strategies. While several studies have used eye-tracking technology to monitor eye-gaze for offline analysis, there exists no real-time system that can monitor eye-gaze dynamically and provide individualized feedback. Given the promise of VR-based social interaction and the usefulness of monitoring eye-gaze in real-time, a novel VR-based dynamic eye-tracking system is developed in this work. This system, called Virtual Interactive system with Gaze-sensitive Adaptive Response Technology (VIGART), is capable of delivering individualized feedback based on a child’s dynamic gaze patterns during VR-based interaction. Results from a usability study with six adolescents with ASD are presented that examines the acceptability and usefulness of VIGART. The results in terms of improvement in behavioral viewing and changes in relevant eye physiological indexes of participants while interacting with VIGART indicate the potential of this novel technology. PMID:21609889

Design of a gaze-sensitive virtual social interactive system for children with autism.

PubMed

Lahiri, Uttama; Warren, Zachary; Sarkar, Nilanjan

2011-08-01

Impairments in social communication skills are thought to be core deficits in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). In recent years, several assistive technologies, particularly Virtual Reality (VR), have been investigated to promote social interactions in this population. It is well known that children with ASD demonstrate atypical viewing patterns during social interactions and thus monitoring eye-gaze can be valuable to design intervention strategies. While several studies have used eye-tracking technology to monitor eye-gaze for offline analysis, there exists no real-time system that can monitor eye-gaze dynamically and provide individualized feedback. Given the promise of VR-based social interaction and the usefulness of monitoring eye-gaze in real-time, a novel VR-based dynamic eye-tracking system is developed in this work. This system, called Virtual Interactive system with Gaze-sensitive Adaptive Response Technology (VIGART), is capable of delivering individualized feedback based on a child's dynamic gaze patterns during VR-based interaction. Results from a usability study with six adolescents with ASD are presented that examines the acceptability and usefulness of VIGART. The results in terms of improvement in behavioral viewing and changes in relevant eye physiological indexes of participants while interacting with VIGART indicate the potential of this novel technology. © 2011 IEEE

Vibrio diversity and dynamics in the Monterey Bay upwelling region

PubMed Central

Mansergh, Sarah; Zehr, Jonathan P.

2013-01-01

The Vibrionaceae (Vibrio) are a ubiquitous group of metabolically flexible marine bacteria that play important roles in biogeochemical cycling in the ocean. Despite this versatility, little is known about Vibrio diversity and abundances in upwelling regions. The seasonal dynamics of Vibrio populations was examined by analysis of 16S rRNA genes in Monterey Bay (MB), California from April 2006–April 2008 at two long term monitoring stations, C1 and M2. Vibrio phylotypes within MB were diverse, with subpopulations clustering with several different cultured representatives including Allivibrio spp., Vibrio penaecida, and Vibrio splendidus as well as with many unidentified marine environmental bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences. Total Vibrio population abundances, as well as abundances of a Vibrio sp. subpopulation (MBAY Vib7) and an Allivibrio sp. subpopulation (MBAY Vib4) were examined in the context of environmental parameters from mooring station and CTD cast data. Total Vibrio populations showed some seasonal variability but greater variability was observed within the two subpopulations. MBAY Vib4 was negatively associated with MB upwelling indices and positively correlated with oceanic season conditions, when upwelling winds relax and warmer surface waters are present in MB. MBAY Vib7 was also negatively associated with upwelling indices and represented a deeper Vibrio sp. population. Correlation patterns suggest that larger oceanographic conditions affect the dynamics of the populations in MB, rather than specific environmental factors. This study is the first to target and describe the diversity and dynamics of these natural populations in MB and demonstrates that these populations shift seasonally within the region. PMID:24575086

Using population genetic tools to develop a control strategy for feral cats (Felis catus) in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, H.; Hess, S.C.; Cole, D.; Banko, P.C.

2007-01-01

Population genetics can provide information about the demographics and dynamics of invasive species that is beneficial for developing effective control strategies. We studied the population genetics of feral cats on Hawai'i Island by microsatellite analysis to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure, assess gene flow and connectivity among three populations, identify potential source populations, characterise population dynamics, and evaluate sex-biased dispersal. High genetic diversity, low structure, and high number of migrants per generation supported high gene flow that was not limited spatially. Migration rates revealed that most migration occurred out of West Mauna Kea. Effective population size estimates indicated increasing cat populations despite control efforts. Despite high gene flow, relatedness estimates declined significantly with increased geographic distance and Bayesian assignment tests revealed the presence of three population clusters. Genetic structure and relatedness estimates indicated male-biased dispersal, primarily from Mauna Kea, suggesting that this population should be targeted for control. However, recolonisation seems likely, given the great dispersal ability that may not be inhibited by barriers such as lava flows. Genetic monitoring will be necessary to assess the effectiveness of future control efforts. Management of other invasive species may benefit by employing these population genetic tools. ?? CSIRO 2007.

Raw Cow Milk Bacterial Population Shifts Attributable to Refrigeration

PubMed Central

Lafarge, Véronique; Ogier, Jean-Claude; Girard, Victoria; Maladen, Véronique; Leveau, Jean-Yves; Gruss, Alexandra; Delacroix-Buchet, Agnès

2004-01-01

We monitored the dynamic changes in the bacterial population in milk associated with refrigeration. Direct analyses of DNA by using temporal temperature gel electrophoresis (TTGE) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) allowed us to make accurate species assignments for bacteria with low-GC-content (low-GC%) (<55%) and medium- or high-GC% (>55%) genomes, respectively. We examined raw milk samples before and after 24-h conservation at 4°C. Bacterial identification was facilitated by comparison with an extensive bacterial reference database (∼150 species) that we established with DNA fragments of pure bacterial strains. Cloning and sequencing of fragments missing from the database were used to achieve complete species identification. Considerable evolution of bacterial populations occurred during conservation at 4°C. TTGE and DGGE are shown to be a powerful tool for identifying the main bacterial species of the raw milk samples and for monitoring changes in bacterial populations during conservation at 4°C. The emergence of psychrotrophic bacteria such as Listeria spp. or Aeromonas hydrophila is demonstrated. PMID:15345453

Emerald ash borer aftermath forests: the future of ash ecosystems

Treesearch

Kathleen S. Knight; Daniel A. Herms; John Cardina; Robert Long; Kamal J.K. Gandhi; Catharine P. Herms

2011-01-01

The effects of emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis) on forest ecosystems are being studied through a collaborative research program between the U.S. Forest Service and The Ohio State University. We are monitoring ash demographics, understory light availability, EAB population dynamics, native and non-native plants, and effects of ash...

Spatial and temporal distribution patterns of ear-feeding insect damage in pre-harvest corn

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The key ear-feeding insects in the southeastern coastal plain region are the corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), the maize weevil, Sitophilus zeamais Motschulsky, and the brown stink bug, Euschistus servus (Say), in recent years. The population dynamics of E. servus and S. zeamais were monitore...

The dynamic monitoring of aeolian desertification land distribution and its response to climate change in northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Lili; Jia, Zhiqing; Li, Qingxue

2016-12-01

Aeolian desertification is poorly understood despite its importance for indicating environment change. Here we exploit Gaofen-1(GF-1) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data to develop a quick and efficient method for large scale aeolian desertification dynamic monitoring in northern China. This method, which is based on Normalized Difference Desertification Index (NDDI) calculated by band1 & band2 of MODIS reflectance data (MODIS09A1). Then we analyze spatial-temporal change of aeolian desertification area and detect its possible influencing factors, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and population by Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) model. It suggests that aeolian desertification area with population indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables (P < 0.05), but forcing of aeolian desertification area by population is weak. Meanwhile, we find aeolian desertification area is significantly affected by temperature, as expected. However, there is no obvious forcing for the aeolian desertification area and precipitation. Aeolian desertification area with wind speed indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables with significant signal (P < 0.01). We infer that aeolian desertification is greatly affected by natural factors compared with anthropogenic factors. For the desertification in China, we are greatly convinced that desertification prevention is better than control.

The dynamic monitoring of aeolian desertification land distribution and its response to climate change in northern China

PubMed Central

Feng, Lili; Jia, Zhiqing; Li, Qingxue

2016-01-01

Aeolian desertification is poorly understood despite its importance for indicating environment change. Here we exploit Gaofen-1(GF-1) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data to develop a quick and efficient method for large scale aeolian desertification dynamic monitoring in northern China. This method, which is based on Normalized Difference Desertification Index (NDDI) calculated by band1 & band2 of MODIS reflectance data (MODIS09A1). Then we analyze spatial-temporal change of aeolian desertification area and detect its possible influencing factors, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and population by Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) model. It suggests that aeolian desertification area with population indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables (P < 0.05), but forcing of aeolian desertification area by population is weak. Meanwhile, we find aeolian desertification area is significantly affected by temperature, as expected. However, there is no obvious forcing for the aeolian desertification area and precipitation. Aeolian desertification area with wind speed indicates feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables with significant signal (P < 0.01). We infer that aeolian desertification is greatly affected by natural factors compared with anthropogenic factors. For the desertification in China, we are greatly convinced that desertification prevention is better than control. PMID:28004798

Dynamic feature analysis of vector-based images for neuropsychological testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Stephen L.; Cervantes, Basilio R.

1998-07-01

The dynamic properties of human motor activities, such as those observed in the course of drawing simple geometric shapes, are considerably more complex and often more informative than the goal to be achieved; in this case a static line drawing. This paper demonstrates how these dynamic properties may be used to provide a means of assessing a patient's visuo-spatial ability -- an important component of neuropsychological testing. The work described here provides a quantitative assessment of visuo-spatial ability, whilst preserving the conventional test environment. Results will be presented for a clinical population of long-term haemodialysis patients and test population comprises three groups of children (1) 7-8 years, (2) 9-10 years and (3) 11-12 years, all of which have no known neurological dysfunction. Ten new dynamic measurements extracted from patient responses in conjunction with one static feature deduced from earlier work describe a patient's visuo-spatial ability in a quantitative manner with sensitivity not previously attainable. The dynamic feature measurements in isolation provide a unique means of tracking a patient's approach to motor activities and could prove useful in monitoring a child' visuo-motor development.

Bottom-up processes drive reproductive success in an apex predator.

PubMed

Schmidt, Joshua H; McIntyre, Carol L; Roland, Carl A; MacCluskie, Margaret C; Flamme, Melanie J

2018-02-01

One of the central goals of the field of population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics, particularly in the context of predator-prey relationships. Understanding the relative role of top-down versus bottom-up drivers is of particular interest in understanding ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to explore predator-prey relationships in a boreal ecosystem in interior Alaska through the use of multispecies long-term monitoring data. We used 29 years of field data and a dynamic multistate site occupancy modeling approach to explore the trophic relationships between an apex predator, the golden eagle, and cyclic populations of the two primary prey species available to eagles early in the breeding season, snowshoe hare and willow ptarmigan. We found that golden eagle reproductive success was reliant on prey numbers, but also responded prior to changes in the phase of the snowshoe hare population cycle and failed to respond to variation in hare cycle amplitude. There was no lagged response to ptarmigan populations, and ptarmigan populations recovered quickly from the low phase. Together, these results suggested that eagle reproduction is largely driven by bottom-up processes, with little evidence of top-down control of either ptarmigan or hare populations. Although the relationship between golden eagle reproductive success and prey abundance had been previously established, here we established prey populations are likely driving eagle dynamics through bottom-up processes. The key to this insight was our focus on golden eagle reproductive parameters rather than overall abundance. Although our inference is limited to the golden eagle-hare-ptarmigan relationships we studied, our results suggest caution in interpreting predator-prey abundance patterns among other species as strong evidence for top-down control.

Urban aerosols harbor diverse and dynamic bacterial populations

PubMed Central

Brodie, Eoin L.; DeSantis, Todd Z.; Parker, Jordan P. Moberg; Zubietta, Ingrid X.; Piceno, Yvette M.; Andersen, Gary L.

2007-01-01

Considering the importance of its potential implications for human health, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem stability, surprisingly little is known regarding the composition or dynamics of the atmosphere's microbial inhabitants. Using a custom high-density DNA microarray, we detected and monitored bacterial populations in two U.S. cities over 17 weeks. These urban aerosols contained at least 1,800 diverse bacterial types, a richness approaching that of some soil bacterial communities. We also reveal the consistent presence of bacterial families with pathogenic members including environmental relatives of select agents of bioterrorism significance. Finally, using multivariate regression techniques, we demonstrate that temporal and meteorological influences can be stronger factors than location in shaping the biological composition of the air we breathe. PMID:17182744

Sea lice and salmon population dynamics: effects of exposure time for migratory fish.

PubMed

Krkosek, Martin; Morton, Alexandra; Volpe, John P; Lewis, Mark A

2009-08-07

The ecological impact of parasite transmission from fish farms is probably mediated by the migration of wild fishes, which determines the period of exposure to parasites. For Pacific salmon and the parasitic sea louse, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, analysis of the exposure period may resolve conflicting observations of epizootic mortality in field studies and parasite rejection in experiments. This is because exposure periods can differ by 2-3 orders of magnitude, ranging from months in the field to hours in experiments. We developed a mathematical model of salmon-louse population dynamics, parametrized by a study that monitored naturally infected juvenile salmon held in ocean enclosures. Analysis of replicated trials indicates that lice suffer high mortality, particularly during pre-adult stages. The model suggests louse populations rapidly decline following brief exposure of juvenile salmon, similar to laboratory study designs and data. However, when the exposure period lasts for several weeks, as occurs when juvenile salmon migrate past salmon farms, the model predicts that lice accumulate to abundances that can elevate salmon mortality and depress salmon populations. The duration of parasite exposure is probably critical to salmon-louse population dynamics, and should therefore be accommodated in coastal planning and management where fish farms are situated on wild fish migration routes.

Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles.

PubMed

Voutilainen, Liina; Kallio, Eva R; Niemimaa, Jukka; Vapalahti, Olli; Henttonen, Heikki

2016-02-18

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and peak years of the density cycle despite a twofold difference in host density. This may result from the high proportion of individuals carrying maternal antibodies constraining transmission during the cycle peak years. Our exceptionally intensive and long-term dataset provides a solid basis on which to develop models to predict the dynamic public health threat posed by PUUV in northern Europe.

Insights into the Introduction History and Population Genetic Dynamics of the Nile Monitor (Varanus niloticus) in Florida.

PubMed

Wood, Jared P; Dowell, Stephanie A; Campbell, Todd S; Page, Robert B

2016-07-01

Invasive species are widely recognized as important drivers of the ongoing biodiversity crisis. The US state of Florida is especially susceptible to the proliferation of invasive reptiles, and nonnative lizards currently outnumber native lizard species. At present, there are 3 documented breeding populations of the Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus) in different regions of Southern Florida, and these populations are considered potential dangers to threatened, fossorial endemics, such as burrowing owls, American crocodiles, and gopher tortoises. Nevertheless, at present, both the introduction histories of these populations and the degree to which they are connected by gene flow are not known. To address these issues, we genotyped V. niloticus from Cape Coral, Homestead Air Reserve Base, and West Palm Beach at 17 microsatellite loci and conducted a variety of analyses to assess both intrapopulation genetic diversity, the degree of gene flow between populations, and the most likely introduction scenario. The results of our analyses demonstrate that all 3 populations have limited genetic diversity (mean number of effective alleles across loci in all 3 populations ~ 2.00) and are highly differentiated from one another (G ST = 0.268; G″ST = 0.628). Our results also suggest that these populations resulted from independent introduction events that occurred within the past few decades. Consequently, we advise that wildlife managers focus management efforts on containment of existing populations and intensification of monitoring efforts on potential migration corridors. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Wolf population dynamics in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains are affected by recruitment and human-caused mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gude, J.A.; Mitchell, M.S.; Russell, R.E.; Sime, C.A.; Bangs, E.E.; Mech, L.D.; Ream, R.R.

2012-01-01

Reliable analyses can help wildlife managers make good decisions, which are particularly critical for controversial decisions such as wolf (Canis lupus) harvest. Creel and Rotella (2010) recently predicted substantial population declines in Montana wolf populations due to harvest, in contrast to predictions made by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP). We replicated their analyses considering only those years in which field monitoring was consistent, and we considered the effect of annual variation in recruitment on wolf population growth. Rather than assuming constant rates, we used model selection methods to evaluate and incorporate models of factors driving recruitment and human-caused mortality rates in wolf populations in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Using data from 27 area-years of intensive wolf monitoring, we show that variation in both recruitment and human-caused mortality affect annual wolf population growth rates and that human-caused mortality rates have increased with the sizes of wolf populations. We document that recruitment rates have decreased over time, and we speculate that rates have decreased with increasing population sizes and/or that the ability of current field resources to document recruitment rates has recently become less successful as the number of wolves in the region has increased. Estimates of positive wolf population growth in Montana from our top models are consistent with field observations and estimates previously made by MFWP for 2008-2010, whereas the predictions for declining wolf populations of Creel and Rotella (2010) are not. Familiarity with limitations of raw data, obtained first-hand or through consultation with scientists who collected the data, helps generate more reliable inferences and conclusions in analyses of publicly available datasets. Additionally, development of efficient monitoring methods for wolves is a pressing need, so that analyses such as ours will be possible in future years when fewer resources will be available for monitoring. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society. Copyright ?? The Wildlife Society, 2011.

Dynamics of Reactive Microbial Hotspots in Concentration Gradient.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubert, A.; Farasin, J.; Tabuteau, H.; Dufresne, A.; Meheust, Y.; Le Borgne, T.

2017-12-01

In subsurface environments, bacteria play a major role in controlling the kinetics of a broad range of biogeochemical reactions. In such environments, nutrients fluxes and solute concentrations needed for bacteria metabolism may be highly variable in space and intermittent in time. This can lead to the formation of reactive hotspots where and when conditions are favorable to particular microorganisms, hence inducing biogeochemical reaction kinetics that differ significantly from those measured in homogeneous model environments. To investigate the impact of chemical gradients on the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of subsurface microorganism populations, we develop microfluidic cells allowing for a precise control of flow and chemical gradient conditions, as well as quantitative monitoring of the bacteria's spatial distribution and biofilm development. Using the non-motile Escherichia coli JW1908-1 strain and Gallionella capsiferriformans ES-2 as model organisms, we investigate the behavior and development of bacteria over a range of single and double concentration gradients in the concentrations of nutrients, electron donors and electron acceptors. We measure bacterial activity and population growth locally in precisely known hydrodynamic and chemical environments. This approach allows time-resolved monitoring of the location and intensity of reactive hotspots in micromodels as a function of the flow and chemical gradient conditions. We compare reactive microbial hotspot dynamics in our micromodels to classic growth laws and well-known growth parameters for the laboratory model bacteria Escherichia coli.We also discuss consequences for the formation and temporal dynamics of biofilms in the subsurface.

Investigating the effect of chemical stress and resource ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. The Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Herein, we develop a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish that analyzes both size-structure and age class-structure of the population so that we could readily incorporate output from a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model currently under development. This population modeling approach emphasizes application in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) and/or laboratory analysis to link effects due to chemical stress to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. We applied the model using data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, taken from a previously published study. Specifically, the model was used to investigate population trajectories for Atlantic killifish with dietary exposures to 112, 296, and 875 pg/g of dioxin with effects on fertility and survival rates. All effects were expressed relative to control fish. Further, the population model was employed to examine age and size distributions of a population exposed to resource limitation in addition to chemical stress. For each dietary exposure concentration o

Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

2014-11-01

An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

[History and present status of butterfly monitoring in Europe and related development strategies for China].

PubMed

Fang, Li-Jun; Xu, Hai-Gen; Guan, Jian-Ling

2013-09-01

Butterfly is an important bio-indicator for biodiversity monitoring and ecological environment assessment. In Europe, the species composition, population dynamics, and distribution pattern of butterfly have been monitored for decades, and many long-term monitoring schemes with international effects have been implemented. These schemes are aimed to assess the regional and national variation trends of butterfly species abundance, and to analyze the relationships of this species abundance with habitat, climate change, and other environmental factors, providing basic data for researching, protecting, and utilizing butterfly resources and predicting environmental changes, and playing important roles in the division of butterfly' s threatened level, the formulation of related protection measures, and the protection and management of ecological environment. This paper reviewed the history and present status of butterfly monitoring in Europe, with the focus on the well-known long-term monitoring programs, e. g. , the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme and the Germany and European Union Butterfly Monitoring Scheme. Some specific proposals for conducting butterflies monitoring in China were suggested.

Assessing physical activity using wearable monitors: measures of physical activity.

PubMed

Butte, Nancy F; Ekelund, Ulf; Westerterp, Klaas R

2012-01-01

Physical activity may be defined broadly as "all bodily actions produced by the contraction of skeletal muscle that increase energy expenditure above basal level." Physical activity is a complex construct that can be classified into major categories qualitatively, quantitatively, or contextually. The quantitative assessment of physical activity using wearable monitors is grounded in the measurement of energy expenditure. Six main categories of wearable monitors are currently available to investigators: pedometers, load transducers/foot-contact monitors, accelerometers, HR monitors, combined accelerometer and HR monitors, and multiple sensor systems. Currently available monitors are capable of measuring total physical activity as well as components of physical activity that play important roles in human health. The selection of wearable monitors for measuring physical activity will depend on the physical activity component of interest, study objectives, characteristics of the target population, and study feasibility in terms of cost and logistics. Future development of sensors and analytical techniques for assessing physical activity should focus on the dynamic ranges of sensors, comparability for sensor output across manufacturers, and the application of advanced modeling techniques to predict energy expenditure and classify physical activities. New approaches for qualitatively classifying physical activity should be validated using direct observation or recording. New sensors and methods for quantitatively assessing physical activity should be validated in laboratory and free-living populations using criterion methods of calorimetry or doubly labeled water.

Experimental validation of the AVIVET trap, a tool to quantitatively monitor the dynamics of Dermanyssus gallinae populations in laying hens.

PubMed

Lammers, G A; Bronneberg, R G G; Vernooij, J C M; Stegeman, J A

2017-06-01

Dermanyssus gallinae (D.gallinae) infestation causes economic losses due to impaired health and production of hens and costs of parasite control across the world. Moreover, infestations are associated with reduced welfare of hens and may cause itching in humans. To effectively implement control methods it is crucially important to have high quality information about the D.gallinae populations in poultry houses in space and time. At present no validated tool is available to quantitatively monitor the dynamics of all four stages of D.gallinae (i.e., eggs, larvae, nymphs, and adults) in poultry houses.This article describes the experimental validation of the AVIVET trap, a device to quantitatively monitor dynamics of D.gallinae infestations. We used the device to study D.gallinae in fully equipped cages with two white specific pathogen free Leghorn laying hens experimentally exposed to three different infestation levels of D.gallinae (low to high).The AVIVET trap was successfully able to detect D.gallinae at high (5,000 D.gallinae), medium (2,500 D.gallinae), and low (50 D.gallinae) level of D.gallinae infestation. The linear equation Y = 10∧10∧(0.47 + 1.21X) with Y = log10 (Total number of D.gallinae nymphs and adults) in the cage and X = log10 (Total number of D.gallinae nymphs and adults) in the AVIVET trap explained 93.8% of the variation.The weight of D.gallinae in the AVIVET trap also appears to be a reliable parameter for quantifying D.gallinae infestation in a poultry house. The weight of D.gallinae in the AVIVET trap correlates 99.6% (P < 0.000) to the counted number of all stages of D.gallinae in the trap (i.e., eggs, larvae, nymphs, and adults) indicating that the trap is highly specific.From this experiment it can be concluded that the AVIVET trap is promising as quantitative tool for monitoring D.gallinae dynamics in a poultry house. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Annual observations of conspicuous canker activity on whitebark pine (2003 to 2007)

Treesearch

Michael P. Murray

2011-01-01

Whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis) notable ecological values, combined with its precarious state, underscore the need for monitoring its health and dynamics. Populations of whitebark pine are in decline throughout most of its range. White pine blister rust, caused by the fungus Cronartium ribicola, has denuded stands since introduction during the early 1900s (...

[Mathematical models and epidemiological analysis].

PubMed

Gerasimov, A N

2010-01-01

The limited use of mathematical simulation in epidemiology is due not only to the difficulty of monitoring the epidemic process and identifying its parameters but also to the application of oversimplified models. It is shown that realistic reproduction of actual morbidity dynamics requires taking into account heterogeneity and finiteness of the population and seasonal character of pathogen transmission mechanism.

Evaluations of alternative methods for monitoring and estimating responses of salmon productivity in the North Pacific to future climatic change and other processes: A simulation study

EPA Science Inventory

Estimation of the relative influence of climate change, compared to other human activities, on dynamics of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations can help management agencies take appropriate management actions. We used empirically based simulation modelling of 48 sockeye...

Incentivizing monitoring and compliance in trophy hunting.

PubMed

Bunnefeld, Nils; Edwards, Charles T T; Atickem, Anagaw; Hailu, Fetene; Milner-Gulland, E J

2013-12-01

Conservation scientists are increasingly focusing on the drivers of human behavior and on the implications of various sources of uncertainty for management decision making. Trophy hunting has been suggested as a conservation tool because it gives economic value to wildlife, but recent examples show that overharvesting is a substantial problem and that data limitations are rife. We use a case study of trophy hunting of an endangered antelope, the mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), to explore how uncertainties generated by population monitoring and poaching interact with decision making by 2 key stakeholders: the safari companies and the government. We built a management strategy evaluation model that encompasses the population dynamics of mountain nyala, a monitoring model, and a company decision making model. We investigated scenarios of investment into antipoaching and monitoring by governments and safari companies. Harvest strategy was robust to the uncertainty in the population estimates obtained from monitoring, but poaching had a much stronger effect on quota and sustainability. Hence, reducing poaching is in the interests of companies wishing to increase the profitability of their enterprises, for example by engaging community members as game scouts. There is a threshold level of uncertainty in the population estimates beyond which the year-to-year variation in the trophy quota prevented planning by the safari companies. This suggests a role for government in ensuring that a baseline level of population monitoring is carried out such that this level is not exceeded. Our results illustrate the importance of considering the incentives of multiple stakeholders when designing frameworks for resource use and when designing management frameworks to address the particular sources of uncertainty that affect system sustainability most heavily. Incentivando el Monitoreo y el Cumplimiento en la Caza de Trofeos. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Non-invasive genetic censusing and monitoring of primate populations.

PubMed

Arandjelovic, Mimi; Vigilant, Linda

2018-03-01

Knowing the density or abundance of primate populations is essential for their conservation management and contextualizing socio-demographic and behavioral observations. When direct counts of animals are not possible, genetic analysis of non-invasive samples collected from wildlife populations allows estimates of population size with higher accuracy and precision than is possible using indirect signs. Furthermore, in contrast to traditional indirect survey methods, prolonged or periodic genetic sampling across months or years enables inference of group membership, movement, dynamics, and some kin relationships. Data may also be used to estimate sex ratios, sex differences in dispersal distances, and detect gene flow among locations. Recent advances in capture-recapture models have further improved the precision of population estimates derived from non-invasive samples. Simulations using these methods have shown that the confidence interval of point estimates includes the true population size when assumptions of the models are met, and therefore this range of population size minima and maxima should be emphasized in population monitoring studies. Innovations such as the use of sniffer dogs or anti-poaching patrols for sample collection are important to ensure adequate sampling, and the expected development of efficient and cost-effective genotyping by sequencing methods for DNAs derived from non-invasive samples will automate and speed analyses. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Kit fox population trends at the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kato, T.T.; Scrivner, J.H.; Warrick, G.

The San Joaquin kit fox was listed as an endangered subspecies following passage of the Endangered Species Protection Act of 1966, and further classified as rare under the California Endangered Species Act of 1970. The San Joaquin kit fox occurs on the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California administered by the Department of Energy (DOE). A long term kit fox population monitoring program was initiated as part of DOE's mitigation strategy to comply with the Endangered Species Act. In addition to monitoring kit fox populations, the program includes assessments of kit fox prey density and assessments of predator abundance. The objectivesmore » of this study were to: describe the long term changes in the kit fox population on the Reserves and assess the roles of coyotes and lagomorphs in kit fox population dynamics. When the fox population on NPR-1 declined between 1980 and 1984, it appeared to have been negatively impacted by a declining prey base (lagomorphs) and an increasing coyote population. Declining lagomorph densities may have been a more important factor because as coyote numbers declined between 1985 and 1990, the kit fox population remained stable. The fox population on NPR-2 remained at a higher and more stable level than the population on NPR-1. The factors determining the higher densities and greater stability of the fox population on NPR-2 are unknown.« less

Numerical modeling of the transmission dynamics of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant HSV-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumel, A. B.

2001-03-01

A competitive finite-difference method will be constructed and used to solve a modified deterministic model for the spread of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) within a given population. The model monitors the transmission dynamics and control of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant HSV-2. Unlike the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4), which fails when the discretization parameters exceed certain values, the novel numerical method to be developed in this paper gives convergent results for all parameter values.

Monitoring survival rates of landbirds at varying spatial scales: An application of the MAPS Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; Hines, J.E.; Bonney, Rick; Pashley, David N.; Cooper, Robert; Niles, Larry

2000-01-01

Survivorship is a primary demographic parameter affecting population dynamics, and thus trends in species abundance. The Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program is a cooperative effort designed to monitor landbird demographic parameters. A principle goal of MAPS is to estimate annual survivorship and identify spatial patterns and temporal trends in these rates. We evaluated hypotheses of spatial patterns in survival rates among a collection of neighboring sampling sites, such as within national forests, among biogeographic provinces, and between breeding populations that winter in either Central or South America, and compared these geographic-specific models to a model of a common survival rate among all sampling sites. We used data collected during 1992-1995 from Swainson's Thrush (Cathorus ustulatus) populations in the western region of the United States. We evaluated the ability to detect spatial and temporal patterns of survivorship with simulated data. We found weak evidence of spatial differences in survival rates at the local scale of 'location,' which typically contained 3 mist-netting stations. There was little evidence of differences in survival rates among biogeographic provinces or between populations that winter in either Central or South America. When data were pooled for a regional estimate of survivorship, the percent relative bias due to pooling 'locations' was 12 years of monitoring. Detection of spatial patterns and temporal trends in survival rates from local to regional scales will provide important information for management and future research directed toward conservation of landbirds.

Tradeoffs between physical captures and PIT tag antenna array detections: A case study for the Lower Colorado River Basin population of humpback chub (Gila cypha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearson, Kristen Nicole; Kendall, William L.; Winkelman, Dana L.; Persons, William R.

2016-01-01

A key component of many monitoring programs for special status species involves capture and handling of individuals as part of capture-recapture efforts for tracking population health and demography. Minimizing negative impacts from sampling, such as through reduced handling, aids prevention of negative impacts on species from monitoring efforts. Using simulation analyses, we found that long-term population monitoring techniques, requiring physical capture (i.e. hoop-net sampling), can be reduced and supplemented with passive detections (i.e. PIT tag antenna array detections) without negatively affecting estimates of adult humpback chub (HBC; Gila cypha) survival (S) and skipped spawning probabilities (γ' = spawner transitions to a skipped spawner, γ′ = skipped spawner remains a skipped spawner). Based on our findings of the array’s in situ detection efficiency (0.42), estimability of such demographic parameters would improve over hoop-netting alone. In addition, the array provides insight into HBC population dynamics and movement patterns outside of traditional sampling periods. However, given current timing of sampling efforts, spawner abundance estimates were negatively biased when hoop-netting was reduced, suggesting not all spawning HBC are present during the current sampling events. Despite this, our findings demonstrate that PIT tag antenna arrays, even with moderate potential detectability, may allow for reduced handling of special status species while also offering potentially more efficient monitoring strategies, especially if ideal timing of sampling can be determined.

Users' guide to system dynamics model describing Coho salmon survival in Olema Creek, Point Reyes National Seashore, Marin County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia; Madej, Mary Ann; Reichmuth, Michael; Fong, Darren

2014-01-01

The system dynamics model described in this report is the result of a collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and National Park Service (NPS) San Francisco Bay Area Network (SFAN) staff, whose goal was to develop a methodology to integrate inventory and monitoring data to better understand ecosystem dynamics and trends using salmon in Olema Creek, Marin County, California, as an example case. The SFAN began monitoring multiple life stages of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Olema Creek during 2003 (Carlisle and others, 2013), building on previous monitoring of spawning fish and redds. They initiated water-quality and habitat monitoring, and had access to flow and weather data from other sources. This system dynamics model of the freshwater portion of the coho salmon life cycle in Olema Creek integrated 8 years of existing monitoring data, literature values, and expert opinion to investigate potential factors limiting survival and production, identify data gaps, and improve monitoring and restoration prescriptions. A system dynamics model is particularly effective when (1) data are insufficient in time series length and/or measured parameters for a statistical or mechanistic model, and (2) the model must be easily accessible by users who are not modelers. These characteristics helped us meet the following overarching goals for this model: Summarize and synthesize NPS monitoring data with data and information from other sources to describe factors and processes affecting freshwater survival of coho salmon in Olema Creek. Provide a model that can be easily manipulated to experiment with alternative values of model parameters and novel scenarios of environmental drivers. Although the model describes the ecological dynamics of Olema Creek, these dynamics are structurally similar to numerous other coastal streams along the California coast that also contain anadromous fish populations. The model developed for Olema can be used, at least as a starting point, for other watersheds. This report describes each of the model elements with sufficient detail to guide the primary target audience, the NPS resource specialist, to run the model, interpret the results, change the input data to explore hypotheses, and ultimately modify and improve the model. Running the model and interpreting the results does not require modeling expertise on the part of the user. Additional companion publications will highlight other aspects of the model, such as its development, the rationale behind the methodological approach, scenario testing, and discussions of its use. System dynamics models consist of three basic elements: stocks, flows, and converters. Stocks are measurable quantities that can change over time, such as animal populations. Flows are any processes or conditions that change the quantity in a stock over time (Ford, 1999), are expressed in the model as a rate of change, and are diagrammed as arrows to or from stocks. Converters are processes or conditions that change the rate of flows. A converter is connected to a flow with an arrow indicating that it alters the rate of change. Anything that influences the rate of change (such as different environmental conditions, other external factors, or feedbacks from other stocks or flows) is modeled as a converter. For example, the number of fish in a population is appropriately modeled as a stock. Mortality is modeled as a flow because it is a rate of change over time used to determine the number of fish in the population. The density-dependent effect on mortality is modeled as a converter because it influences the rate of morality. Together, the flow and converter change the number, or stock, of juvenile coho. The instructions embedded in the stocks, flows, converters, and the sequence in which they are linked are processed by the simulation software with each completed sequence composing a model run. At each modeled time step within the model run, the stock counts will go up, down, or stay the same based on the modeled flows and the influence of converters on those flows. The model includes a user-friendly interface to change model parameters, which allows park staff and others to conduct sensitivity analyses, incorporate future knowledge, and implement scenarios for various future conditions. The model structure incorporates place holders for relationships that we hypothesize are significant but data are currently lacking. Future climate scenarios project stream temperatures higher than any that have ever been recorded at Olema Creek. Exploring climate change impacts on coho survival is a high priority for park staff, therefore the model provides the user with the option to experiment with hypothesized effects and to incorporate effects based on future observations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on amore » literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.« less

Using high-resolution satellite imagery to assess populations of animals in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaRue, Michelle Ann

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly-changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically-important krill and fish. It is imperative that populations of indicator species, such as penguins and seals, be monitored at regional- to global scales to decouple the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes for appropriate ecosystem-based management of the Southern Ocean. Remotely monitoring populations through high-resolution satellite imagery is currently the only feasible way to gain information about population trends of penguins and seals in Antarctica. In my first chapter, I review the literature where high-resolution satellite imagery has been used to assess populations of animals in polar regions. Building on this literature, my second chapter focuses on estimating changes in abundance in the Weddell seal population in Erebus Bay. I found a strong correlation between ground and satellite counts, and this finding provides an alternate method for assessing populations of Weddell seals in areas where less is known about population status. My third chapter explores how size of the guano stain of Adelie penguins can be used to predict population size. Using high-resolution imagery and ground counts, I built a model to estimate the breeding population of Adelie penguins using a supervised classification to estimate guano size. These results suggest that the size of guano stain is an accurate predictor of population size, and can be applied to estimate remote Adelie penguin colonies. In my fourth chapter, I use air photos, satellite imagery, climate and mark-resight data to determine that climate change has positively impacted the population of Adelie penguins at Beaufort Island through a habitat release that ultimately affected the dynamics within the southern Ross Sea metapopulation. Finally, for my fifth chapter I combined the literature with observations from aerial surveys and satellite imagery to determine that emperor penguins are not philopatric. These results have implications for interpreting long-term modeling studies and I suggest that future research should account for metapopulation dynamics within emperor penguin populations. Combined, my dissertation provides resources and new insights for effective management of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Does intrinsic light heterogeneity in Ricinus communis L. monospecific thickets drive species' population dynamics?

PubMed

Goyal, Neha; Shah, Kanhaiya; Sharma, Gyan Prakash

2018-06-19

Ricinus communis L. colonizes heterogeneous urban landscapes as monospecific thickets. The ecological understanding on colonization success of R. communis population due to variable light availability is lacking. Therefore, to understand the effect of intrinsic light heterogeneity on species' population dynamics, R. communis populations exposed to variable light availability (low, intermediate, and high) were examined for performance strategies through estimation of key vegetative, eco-physiological, biochemical, and reproductive traits. Considerable variability existed in studied plant traits in response to available light. Individuals inhabiting high-light conditions exhibited high eco-physiological efficiency and reproductive performance that potentially confers population boom. Individuals exposed to low light showed poor performance in terms of eco-physiology and reproduction, which attribute to bust. However, individuals in intermediate light were observed to be indeterminate to light availability, potentially undergoing trait modulations with uncertainty of available light. Heterogeneous light availability potentially drives the boom and bust cycles in R. communis monospecific thickets. Such boom and bust cycles subsequently affect species' dominance, persistence, collapse, and/or resurgence as an aggressive colonizer in contrasting urban environments. The study fosters extensive monitoring of R. communis thickets to probe underlying mechanism(s) affecting expansions and/or collapses of colonizing populations.

Monitoring gray wolf populations using multiple survey methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ausband, David E.; Rich, Lindsey N.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Zager, Pete; Miller, David A.W.; Waits, Lisette P.; Ackerman, Bruce B.; Mack, Curt M.

2013-01-01

The behavioral patterns and large territories of large carnivores make them challenging to monitor. Occupancy modeling provides a framework for monitoring population dynamics and distribution of territorial carnivores. We combined data from hunter surveys, howling and sign surveys conducted at predicted wolf rendezvous sites, and locations of radiocollared wolves to model occupancy and estimate the number of gray wolf (Canis lupus) packs and individuals in Idaho during 2009 and 2010. We explicitly accounted for potential misidentification of occupied cells (i.e., false positives) using an extension of the multi-state occupancy framework. We found agreement between model predictions and distribution and estimates of number of wolf packs and individual wolves reported by Idaho Department of Fish and Game and Nez Perce Tribe from intensive radiotelemetry-based monitoring. Estimates of individual wolves from occupancy models that excluded data from radiocollared wolves were within an average of 12.0% (SD = 6.0) of existing statewide minimum counts. Models using only hunter survey data generally estimated the lowest abundance, whereas models using all data generally provided the highest estimates of abundance, although only marginally higher. Precision across approaches ranged from 14% to 28% of mean estimates and models that used all data streams generally provided the most precise estimates. We demonstrated that an occupancy model based on different survey methods can yield estimates of the number and distribution of wolf packs and individual wolf abundance with reasonable measures of precision. Assumptions of the approach including that average territory size is known, average pack size is known, and territories do not overlap, must be evaluated periodically using independent field data to ensure occupancy estimates remain reliable. Use of multiple survey methods helps to ensure that occupancy estimates are robust to weaknesses or changes in any 1 survey method. Occupancy modeling may be useful for standardizing estimates across large landscapes, even if survey methods differ across regions, allowing for inferences about broad-scale population dynamics of wolves.

The phenology of space: Spatial aspects of bison density dependence in Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taper, M.L.; Meagher, M.; Jerde, C.L.

2000-01-01

The Yellowstone bison represent the only bison population in the United States that survived in the wild the near-extermination of the late 1800's. This paper capitalizes on a unique opportunity provided by the record of the bison population of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). This population has been intensely monitored for almost four decades. The analysis of long-term spatio-temporal data from 1970-1997 supports the following conclusions. 1) Even though the Yellowstone bison herd exhibits an extended period of what appears to be linear growth, this pattern can be explained with classical density dependent dynamics if one realizes that perhaps the primary response of the herd to increased density is range expansion. 2) Several spatial aspects of social behavior in the YNP bison may be behavioral adaptations by the bison to environmental changes. These behavioral strategies may buffer, temporarily at least, bison population dynamics from the immediate repercussions of possible environmental stress and habitat deterioration. 3) Bison ecological carrying capacity for YNP is on the order of 2800 to 3200 animals. 4) There do appear to be indications of changes in the bison dynamics that are associated with increasing use of sections of the interior road system in winter. 5) The possibility of habitat degradation is indicated.

Consequence of a sudden wind event on the dynamics of a coastal phytoplankton community: an insight into specific population growth rates using a single cell high frequency approach

PubMed Central

Dugenne, Mathilde; Thyssen, Melilotus; Nerini, David; Mante, Claude; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Garcia, Nicole; Garcia, Fabrice; Grégori, Gérald J.

2014-01-01

Phytoplankton is a key component in marine ecosystems. It is responsible for most of the marine primary production, particularly in eutrophic lagoons, where it frequently blooms. Because they are very sensitive to their environment, the dynamics of these microbial communities has to be observed over different time scales, however, assessment of short term variability is often out of reach of traditional monitoring methods. To overcome these limitations, we set up a Cytosense automated flow cytometer (Cytobuoy b.v.), designed for high frequency monitoring of phytoplankton composition, abundance, cell size, and pigment content, in one of the largest Mediterranean lagoons, the Berre lagoon (South-Eastern France). During October 2011, it recorded the cell optical properties of 12 groups of pico-, nano-, and microphytoplankton. Daily variations in the cluster optical properties were consistent with individual changes observed using microscopic imaging, during the cell cycle. We therefore used an adaptation of the size-structured matrix population model, developed by Sosik et al. (2003) to process the single cell analysis of the clusters and estimate the division rates of 2 dinoflagellate populations before, during, and after a strong wind event. The increase in the estimated in situ daily cluster growth rates suggest that physiological changes in the cells can prevail over the response of abundance. PMID:25309523

Lentiviral and targeted cellular barcoding reveals ongoing clonal dynamics of cell lines in vitro and in vivo

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cell lines are often regarded as clonal, even though this simplifies what is known about mutagenesis, transformation and other processes that destabilize them over time. Monitoring these clonal dynamics is important for multiple areas of biomedical research, including stem cell and cancer biology. Tracking the contributions of individual cells to large populations, however, has been constrained by limitations in sensitivity and complexity. Results We utilize cellular barcoding methods to simultaneously track the clonal contributions of tens of thousands of cells. We demonstrate that even with optimal culturing conditions, common cell lines including HeLa, K562 and HEK-293 T exhibit ongoing clonal dynamics. Starting a population with a single clone diminishes but does not eradicate this phenomenon. Next, we compare lentiviral and zinc-finger nuclease barcode insertion approaches, finding that the zinc-finger nuclease protocol surprisingly results in reduced clonal diversity. We also document the expected reduction in clonal complexity when cells are challenged with genotoxic stress. Finally, we demonstrate that xenografts maintain clonal diversity to a greater extent than in vitro culturing of the human non-small-cell lung cancer cell line HCC827. Conclusions We demonstrate the feasibility of tracking and quantifying the clonal dynamics of entire cell populations within multiple cultured cell lines. Our results suggest that cell heterogeneity should be considered in the design and interpretation of in vitro culture experiments. Aside from clonal cell lines, we propose that cellular barcoding could prove valuable in modeling the clonal behavior of heterogeneous cell populations over time, including tumor populations treated with chemotherapeutic agents. PMID:24886633

Emerald ash borer aftermath forests: The dynamics of ash mortality and the responses of other plant species

Treesearch

Kathleen S. Knight; Daniel A. Herms; John Cardina; Robert Long; Joanne Rebbeck; Kamal J.K. Gandhi; Annemarie Smith; Wendy S. Klooster; Catherine P. Herms; Alejandro A. Royo

2010-01-01

The effects of emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis) on forest ecosystems are being studied through a collaborative research program involving the U.S. Forest Service's Northern Research Station and The Ohio State University. We are monitoring the decline and mortality of >4,500 ash trees and saplings, EAB population density, changes...

Monitoring Bloom Dynamics of a Common Coastal Bioluminescent Ctenophore

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-30

potential in the coastal zone environment. OBJECTIVES Blooms of bioluminescent jellyfish , especially of Mnemiopsis leidyi, are a common occurrence... jellyfish populations are done with net collections by hand at stations weekly, monthly, or seasonally. These time scales severely limit our knowledge...the collection of both biotic and abiotic data continuously. 5 IMPACT/APPLICATIONS As incidents of jellyfish blooms, especially Mnemiopsis

Model-based time-series analysis of FIA panel data absent re-measurements

Treesearch

Raymond L. Czaplewski; Mike T. Thompson

2013-01-01

An epidemic of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) mortality from the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) has swept across the Interior West. Aerial surveys monitor the areal extent of the epidemic, but only Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data support a detailed assessment at the tree level. Dynamics of the lodgepole pine population occur at a more...

Prescribed fire, snag population dynamics, and avian nest site selection

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Kathryn L. Purcell; John T. Rotenberry

2008-01-01

Snags are an important resource for a wide variety of organisms, including cavity-nesting birds. We documented snag attributes in a mixed conifer forest dominated by ponderosa pine in the Sierra Nevada, California where fire is being applied during spring. A total of 328 snags were monitored before and after fire on plots burned once, burned twice, or left unburned to...

Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

PubMed

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

Metapopulation Dynamics of the Mistletoe and Its Host in Savanna Areas with Different Fire Occurrence

PubMed Central

Teodoro, Grazielle Sales; van den Berg, Eduardo; Arruda, Rafael

2013-01-01

Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees) surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected). We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i) the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii) local populations went extinct during the study and (iii) colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads. PMID:23776554

The Hawaii Protocol for Scientific Monitoring of Coffee Berry Borer: a Model for Coffee Agroecosystems Worldwide

PubMed Central

Johnson, Melissa Anne; Hollingsworth, Robert; Fortna, Samuel; Aristizábal, Luis F.; Manoukis, Nicholas C.

2018-01-01

Coffee berry borer (CBB) is the most devastating insect pest for coffee crops worldwide. We developed a scientific monitoring protocol that is aimed at capturing and quantifying the dynamics and impact of this invasive insect pest as well as the development of its host plant across a heterogeneous landscape. The cornerstone of this comprehensive monitoring system is timely georeferenced data collection on CBB movement, coffee berry infestation, mortality by the fungus Beauveria bassiana, and coffee plant phenology via a mobile electronic data recording application. This electronic data collection system allows field records to be georeferenced through built-in global positioning systems, and is backed by a network of weather stations and records of farm management practices. Comprehensive monitoring of CBB and host plant dynamics is an essential part of an area-wide project in Hawaii to aggregate landscape-level data for research to improve management practices. Coffee agroecosystems in other parts of the world that experience highly variable environmental and socioeconomic factors will also benefit from implementing this protocol, in that it will drive the development of customized integrated pest management (IPM) to manage CBB populations. PMID:29608152

The Hawaii Protocol for Scientific Monitoring of Coffee Berry Borer: a Model for Coffee Agroecosystems Worldwide.

PubMed

Johnson, Melissa Anne; Hollingsworth, Robert; Fortna, Samuel; Aristizábal, Luis F; Manoukis, Nicholas C

2018-03-19

Coffee berry borer (CBB) is the most devastating insect pest for coffee crops worldwide. We developed a scientific monitoring protocol that is aimed at capturing and quantifying the dynamics and impact of this invasive insect pest as well as the development of its host plant across a heterogeneous landscape. The cornerstone of this comprehensive monitoring system is timely georeferenced data collection on CBB movement, coffee berry infestation, mortality by the fungus Beauveria bassiana, and coffee plant phenology via a mobile electronic data recording application. This electronic data collection system allows field records to be georeferenced through built-in global positioning systems, and is backed by a network of weather stations and records of farm management practices. Comprehensive monitoring of CBB and host plant dynamics is an essential part of an area-wide project in Hawaii to aggregate landscape-level data for research to improve management practices. Coffee agroecosystems in other parts of the world that experience highly variable environmental and socioeconomic factors will also benefit from implementing this protocol, in that it will drive the development of customized integrated pest management (IPM) to manage CBB populations.

Integrating modeling, monitoring, and management to reduce critical uncertainties in water resource decision making.

PubMed

Peterson, James T; Freeman, Mary C

2016-12-01

Stream ecosystems provide multiple, valued services to society, including water supply, waste assimilation, recreation, and habitat for diverse and productive biological communities. Managers striving to sustain these services in the face of changing climate, land uses, and water demands need tools to assess the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions, and often, the resulting tradeoffs between competing objectives. Integrating predictive modeling with monitoring data in an adaptive management framework provides a process by which managers can reduce model uncertainties and thus improve the scientific bases for subsequent decisions. We demonstrate an integration of monitoring data with a dynamic, metapopulation model developed to assess effects of streamflow alteration on fish occupancy in a southeastern US stream system. Although not extensive (collected over three years at nine sites), the monitoring data allowed us to assess and update support for alternative population dynamic models using model probabilities and Bayes rule. We then use the updated model weights to estimate the effects of water withdrawal on stream fish communities and demonstrate how feedback in the form of monitoring data can be used to improve water resource decision making. We conclude that investment in more strategic monitoring, guided by a priori model predictions under alternative hypotheses and an adaptive sampling design, could substantially improve the information available to guide decision-making and management for ecosystem services from lotic systems. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Demographic and Phenotypic Effects of Human Mediated Trophic Subsidy on a Large Australian Lizard (Varanus varius): Meal Ticket or Last Supper?

PubMed Central

Jessop, Tim S.; Smissen, Peter; Scheelings, Franciscus; Dempster, Tim

2012-01-01

Humans are increasingly subsidizing and altering natural food webs via changes to nutrient cycling and productivity. Where human trophic subsidies are concentrated and persistent within natural environments, their consumption could have complex consequences for wild animals through altering habitat preferences, phenotypes and fitness attributes that influence population dynamics. Human trophic subsidies conceptually create both costs and benefits for animals that receive increased calorific and altered nutritional inputs. Here, we evaluated the effects of a common terrestrial human trophic subsidies, human food refuse, on population and phenotypic (comprising morphological and physiological health indices) parameters of a large predatory lizard (∼2 m length), the lace monitor (Varanus varius), in southern Australia by comparison with individuals not receiving human trophic subsidies. At human trophic subsidies sites, lizards were significantly more abundant and their sex ratio highly male biased compared to control sites in natural forest. Human trophic subsidies recipient lizards were significantly longer, heavier and in much greater body condition. Blood parasites were significantly lower in human trophic subsidies lizards. Collectively, our results imply that human trophic subsidized sites were especially attractive to adult male lace monitors and had large phenotypic effects. However, we cannot rule out that the male-biased aggregations of large monitors at human trophic subsidized sites could lead to reductions in reproductive fitness, through mate competition and offspring survival, and through greater exposure of eggs and juveniles to predation. These possibilities could have negative population consequences. Aggregations of these large predators may also have flow on effects to surrounding food web dynamics through elevated predation levels. Given that flux of energy and nutrients into food webs is central to the regulation of populations and their communities, we advocate further studies of human trophic subsidies be undertaken to evaluate the potentially large ecological implications of this significant human environmental alteration. PMID:22509271

Individual based, long term monitoring of acacia trees in hyper arid zone: Integration of a field survey and a remote sensing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaacson, Sivan; Blumberg, Dan G.; Ginat, Hanan; Shalmon, Benny

2013-04-01

Vegetation in hyper arid zones is very sparse as is. Monitoring vegetation changes in hyper arid zones is important because any reduction in the vegetation cover in these areas can lead to a considerable reduction in the carrying capacity of the ecological system. This study focuses on the impact of climate fluctuations on the acacia population in the southern Arava valley, Israel. The period of this survey includes a sequence of dry years with no flashfloods in most of the plots that ended in two years with vast floods. Arid zone acacia trees play a significant role in the desert ecosystem by moderating the extreme environmental conditions including radiation, temperature, humidity and precipitation. The trees also provide nutrients for the desert dwellers. Therefore, acacia trees in arid zones are considered to be `keystone species', because they have major influence over both plants and animal species, i.e., biodiversity. Long term monitoring of the acacia tree population in this area can provide insights into long term impacts of climate fluctuations on ecosystems in arid zones. Since 2000, a continuous yearly based survey on the three species of acacia population in seven different plots is conducted in the southern Arava (established by Shalmon, ecologist of the Israel nature and parks authority). The seven plots representing different ecosystems and hydrological regimes. A yearly based population monitoring enabled us to determine the mortality and recruitment rate of the acacia populations as well as growing rates of individual trees. This survey provides a unique database of the acacia population dynamics during a sequence of dry years that ended in a vast flood event during the winter of 2010. A lack of quantitative, nondestructive methods to estimate and monitor stress status of the acacia trees, led us to integrate remote sensing tools (ground and air-based) along with conventional field measurements in order to develop a long term monitoring of acacia trees in hyper arid zones. This study includes further work on the development of ground based remote sensing as a new tool to monitor stress indicators as part of long term ecological research. Since acacia trees are long lived, we were able to identify individual trees in satellite images from 1968 (corona) and expand our monitoring "into the past". Remote sensing expands the spatial and temporal database and is thus a powerful tool for long term monitoring in arid zones, where access is limited and long-term ground data are rare.

Estimation by capture-recapture of recruitment and dispersal over several sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lebreton, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Pradel, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.

2003-01-01

Dispersal in animal populations is intimately linked with accession to reproduction, i.e. recruitment, and population regulation. Dispersal processes are thus a key component of population dynamics to the same extent as reproduction or mortality processes. Despite the growing interest in spatial aspects of population dynamics, the methodology for estimating dispersal, in particular in relation with recruitment, is limited. In many animal populations, in particular vertebrates, the impossibility of following individuals over space and time in an exhaustive way leads to the need to frame the estimation of dispersal in the context of capture-recapture methodology. We present here a class of age-dependent multistate capture-recapture models for the simultaneous estimation of natal dispersal, breeding dispersal, and age-dependent recruitment. These models are suitable for populations in which individuals are marked at birth and then recaptured over several sites. Under simple constraints, they can be used in populations where non-breeders are not observed, as is often the case with colonial waterbirds monitored on their breeding grounds. Biological questions can be addressed by comparing models differing in structure, according to the generalized linear model philosophy broadly used in capture-recapture methodology. We illustrate the potential of this approach by an analysis of recruitment and dispersal in the roseate tern Sterna dougallii.

Seasonal Population Dynamics of Megacopta cribraria (Hemiptera: Plataspidae) in Kudzu and Soybean, and Implication for Insecticidal Management in Soybean.

PubMed

Blount, J L; Roberts, P M; Toews, M D; Gardner, W A; Buntin, G D; Davis, J W; All, J N

2017-02-01

Megacopta cribraria (F.), an invasive species introduced from Asia in 2009, is now prolific in the southeastern United States. Megacopta cribraria develops primarily on kudzu and soybean completing two generations. It is not well understood how this economic pest is affected by changes in geographic distribution in the United States or how population levels have changed since its establishment. The effect of insecticide application timing on field populations of M. cribraria is not well documented. These studies seek to understand how population dynamics of M. cribraria vary with geographic regions in Georgia. Effect of application timing on populations throughout the growing season was also examined. Weekly from 2012 to 2013, all life stages were enumerated from kudzu and soybean environments at several locations throughout Georgia from sweeps samples and flight intercept captures. Coordinates were recorded for locations, and classified as belonging to the Piedmont or Coastal Plain region of the state. Single spray trials were conducted from 2011-2014, and applications were made to soybean at intervals throughout the season. From 2012 to 2015, two kudzu patches near Griffin, GA, were monitored to detect population changes. Differences in population dynamics from locations around the state were found, but no clear effect of latitude, longitude, or region was observed. Insecticide applications applied in July suppressed nymph populations significantly better than treatments made earlier or later. Megacopta cribraria populations declined in 2014 and 2015 compared with 2012 and 2013. These studies provide the critical information for M. cribraria management in soybean in the southeastern United States. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Changes of population trends and mortality patterns in response to the reintroduction of large predators: The case study of African ungulates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grange, Sophie; Owen-Smith, Norman; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Druce, Dave J.; Moleón, Marcos; Mgobozi, Mandisa

2012-07-01

Large predators have been reintroduced to an increasing number of protected areas in South Africa. However, the conditions allowing both prey and predator populations to be sustained in enclosed areas are still unclear as there is a lack of understanding of the consequences of such reintroductions for ungulate population dynamics. Variation in lion numbers, two decades after their first release, offered a special opportunity to test the effects of predation pressure on the population dynamics of seven ungulate species in the 960 km2 Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa. We used two different approaches to examine predator-prey relationships: the population response of ungulates to predation pressure after accounting for possible confounding factors, and the pattern of ungulate adult mortality observed from carcass records. Rainfall patterns affected observed mortalities of several ungulate species in HiP. Although lion predation accounted for most ungulate mortality, it still had no detectable influence on ungulate population trends and mortality patterns, with one possible exception. This evidence suggests that the lion population had not yet attained the maximum abundance potentially supported by their ungulate prey; but following recent increases in lion numbers it will probably occur soon. It remains uncertain whether a quasi-stable balance will be reached between prey and predator populations, or whether favoured prey species will be depressed towards levels potentially generating oscillatory dynamics in this complex large mammal assemblage. We specifically recommend a continuous monitoring of predator and prey populations in HiP since lions are likely to show more impacts on their prey species in the next years.

Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Humphries, G. R. W.; Naveen, R.; Schwaller, M.; Che-Castaldo, C.; McDowall, P.; Schrimpf, M.; Schrimpf, Michael; Lynch, H. J.

2017-01-01

The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at www.penguinmap.com provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

Dynamics of the OH stretching mode in crystalline Ba(ClO4)2.3H2O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutzler, Daniel; Brunner, Christian; Petkov, Petko St.; Heine, Thomas; Fischer, Sighart F.; Riedle, Eberhard; Kienberger, Reinhard; Iglev, Hristo

2018-02-01

The vibrational dynamics of the OH stretching mode in Ba(ClO4)2 trihydrate are investigated by means of femtosecond infrared spectroscopy. The sample offers plane cyclic water trimers in the solid phase that feature virtually no hydrogen bond interaction between the water molecules. Selective excitation of the symmetric and asymmetric stretching leads to fast population redistribution, while simultaneous excitation yields quantum beats, which are monitored via a combination tone that dominates the overtone spectrum. The combination of steady-state and time-resolved spectroscopy with quantum chemical simulations and general theoretical considerations gives indication of various aspects of symmetry breakage. The system shows a joint population lifetime of 8 ps and a long-lived coherence between symmetric and asymmetric stretching, which decays with a time constant of 0.6 ps.

Extracting temporal and spatial information from remotely sensed data for mapping wildlife habitat: Tucson

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Advised by Marsh, Stuart E.

2002-01-01

The research accomplished in this dissertation used both mathematical and statistical techniques to extract and evaluate measures of landscape temporal dynamics and spatial structure from remotely sensed data for the purpose of mapping wildlife habitat. By coupling the landscape measures gleaned from the remotely sensed data with various sets of animal sightings and population data, effective models of habitat preference were created.Measures of temporal dynamics of vegetation greenness as measured by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite were used to effectively characterize and map season specific habitat of the Sonoran pronghorn antelope, as well as produce preliminary models of potential yellow-billed cuckoo habitat in Arizona. Various measures that capture different aspects of the temporal dynamics of the landscape were derived from AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index composite data using three main classes of calculations: basic statistics, standardized principal components analysis, and Fourier analysis. Pronghorn habitat models based on the AVHRR measures correspond visually and statistically to GIS-based models produced using data that represent detailed knowledge of ground-condition.Measures of temporal dynamics also revealed statistically significant correlations with annual estimates of elk population in selected Arizona Game Management Units, suggesting elk respond to regional environmental changes that can be measured using satellite data. Such relationships, once verified and established, can be used to help indirectly monitor the population.Measures of landscape spatial structure derived from IKONOS high spatial resolution (1-m) satellite data using geostatistics effectively map details of Sonoran pronghorn antelope habitat. Local estimates of the nugget, sill, and range variogram parameters calculated within 25 x 25-meter image windows describe the spatial autocorrelation of the image, permitting classification of all pixels into coherent units whose signature graphs exhibit a classic variogram shape. The variogram parameters captured in these signatures have been shown in previous studies to discriminate between different species-specific vegetation associations.The synoptic view of the landscape provided by satellite data can inform resource management efforts. The ability to characterize the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of habitat using repeatable remote sensing data allows closer monitoring of the relationship between a species and its landscape.

Efficacy of using data from angler-caught Burbot to estimate population rate functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brauer, Tucker A.; Rhea, Darren T.; Walrath, John D.; Quist, Michael C.

2018-01-01

The effective management of a fish population depends on the collection of accurate demographic data from that population. Since demographic data are often expensive and difficult to obtain, developing cost‐effective and efficient collection methods is a high priority. This research evaluates the efficacy of using angler‐supplied data to monitor a nonnative population of Burbot Lota lota. Age and growth estimates were compared between Burbot collected by anglers and those collected in trammel nets from two Wyoming reservoirs. Collection methods produced different length‐frequency distributions, but no difference was observed in age‐frequency distributions. Mean back‐calculated lengths at age revealed that netted Burbot grew faster than angled Burbot in Fontenelle Reservoir. In contrast, angled Burbot grew slightly faster than netted Burbot in Flaming Gorge Reservoir. Von Bertalanffy growth models differed between collection methods, but differences in parameter estimates were minor. Estimates of total annual mortality (A) of Burbot in Fontenelle Reservoir were comparable between angled (A = 35.4%) and netted fish (33.9%); similar results were observed in Flaming Gorge Reservoir for angled (29.3%) and netted fish (30.5%). Beverton–Holt yield‐per‐recruit models were fit using data from both collection methods. Estimated yield differed by less than 15% between data sources and reservoir. Spawning potential ratios indicated that an exploitation rate of 20% would be required to induce recruitment overfishing in either reservoir, regardless of data source. Results of this study suggest that angler‐supplied data are useful for monitoring Burbot population dynamics in Wyoming and may be an option to efficiently monitor other fish populations in North America.

Series quartz crystal sensor for remote bacteria population monitoring in raw milk via the Internet.

PubMed

Chang, Ku-Shang; Jang, Hung-Der; Lee, Ching-Fu; Lee, Yuan-Guey; Yuan, Chiun-Jye; Lee, Sheng-Hsien

2006-02-15

A remote monitoring system based on a piezoelectric quartz crystal (SPQC) sensor was developed for the determination of the bacteria population in raw milk. The system employs the Windows XP server operating system, and its programs for data acquisition, display and transmission were developed using the LabVIEW 7.1 programming language. The circuit design consists of a circuit with a piezoelectric quartz crystal (SPQC) and a pair of electrodes. This system can provide dynamic data monitoring on a web-page via the Internet. Immersion of the electrodes in a cell culture with bacteria inoculums resulted in a change of frequency caused by the impedance change due to microbial metabolism and the adherence of bacteria on the surface of the electrodes. The calibration curve of detection times against density of bacteria showed a linear correlation coefficient (R(2) = 0.9165) over the range of 70-10(6) CFU ml(-1). The sensor could acquire sufficient data rapidly (within 4 h) and thus enabled real-time monitoring of bacteria growth via the Internet. This system has potential application in the detection of bacteria concentration of milk at dairy farms.

On determining the significance of ephemeral continental wetlands to North American migratory shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Granfors, Diane A.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

2008-01-01

Conservation challenges enhance the need for quantitative information on dispersed bird populations in extensive landscapes, for techniques to monitor populations and assess environmental effects, and for conservation strategies at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. By estimating population sizes of shorebirds in the U.S. portion of the prairie pothole landscape in central North America, where most migrating shorebirds exhibit a highly dispersed spatial pattern, we determined that the region may play a vital role in the conservation of shorebirds. During northward and southward migration, 7.3 million shorebirds (95% CI: 4.3–10.3 million) and 3.9 million shorebirds (95% CI: 1.7–6.0 million) stopped to rest and refuel in the study area; inclusion of locally breeding species increases the estimates by 0.1 million and 0.07 million shorebirds, respectively. Seven species of calidridine sandpipers, including Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla), White-rumped Sandpipers (C. fuscicollis), and Stilt Sandpipers (C. himantopus), constituted 50% of northbound migrants in our study area. We present an approach to population estimation and monitoring, based on stratified random selection of townships as sample units, that is well suited to 11 migratory shorebird species. For extensive and dynamic wetland systems, we strongly caution against a monitoring program based solely on repeated counts of known stopover sites with historically high numbers of shorebirds. We recommend refinements in methodology to address sample-size requirements and potential sources of bias so that our approach may form the basis of a rigorous migration monitoring program in this and other prairie wetland regions.

Health risk evaluation associated to Planktothrix rubescens: An integrated approach to design tailored monitoring programs for human exposure to cyanotoxins.

PubMed

Manganelli, Maura; Scardala, Simona; Stefanelli, Mara; Vichi, Susanna; Mattei, Daniela; Bogialli, Sara; Ceccarelli, Piegiorgio; Corradetti, Ernesto; Petrucci, Ines; Gemma, Simonetta; Testai, Emanuela; Funari, Enzo

2010-03-01

Increasing concern for human health related to cyanotoxin exposure imposes the identification of pattern and level of exposure; however, current monitoring programs, based on cyanobacteria cell counts, could be inadequate. An integrated approach has been applied to a small lake in Italy, affected by Planktothrix rubescens blooms, to provide a scientific basis for appropriate monitoring program design. The cyanobacterium dynamic, the lake physicochemical and trophic status, expressed as nutrients concentration and recycling rates due to bacterial activity, the identification/quantification of toxic genotype and cyanotoxin concentration have been studied. Our results indicate that low levels of nutrients are not a marker for low risk of P. rubescens proliferation and confirm that cyanobacterial density solely is not a reliable parameter to assess human exposure. The ratio between toxic/non-toxic cells, and toxin concentrations, which can be better explained by toxic population dynamic, are much more diagnostic, although varying with time and environmental conditions. The toxic fraction within P. rubescens population is generally high (30-100%) and increases with water depth. The ratio toxic/non-toxic cells is lowest during the bloom, suggesting a competitive advantage for non-toxic cells. Therefore, when P. rubescens is the dominant species, it is important to analyze samples below the thermocline, and quantitatively estimate toxic genotype abundance. In addition, the identification of cyanotoxin content and congeners profile, with different toxic potential, are crucial for risk assessment. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A long-term study of ecological impacts of river channelization on the population of an endangered fish: Lessons learned for assessment and restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James H.; Anderson, Gregory B.; Angermeier, Paul

2016-01-01

Projects to assess environmental impact or restoration success in rivers focus on project-specific questions but can also provide valuable insights for future projects. Both restoration actions and impact assessments can become “adaptive” by using the knowledge gained from long-term monitoring and analysis to revise the actions, monitoring, conceptual model, or interpretation of findings so that subsequent actions or assessments are better informed. Assessments of impact or restoration success are especially challenging when the indicators of interest are imperiled species and/or the impacts being addressed are complex. From 1997 to 2015, we worked closely with two federal agencies to monitor habitat availability for and population density of Roanoke logperch (Percina rex), an endangered fish, in a 24-km-long segment of the upper Roanoke River, VA. We primarily used a Before-After-Control-Impact analytical framework to assess potential impacts of a river channelization project on the P. rex population. In this paper, we summarize how our extensive monitoring facilitated the evolution of our (a) conceptual understanding of the ecosystem and fish population dynamics; (b) choices of ecological indicators and analytical tools; and (c) conclusions regarding the magnitude, mechanisms, and significance of observed impacts. Our experience with this case study taught us important lessons about how to adaptively develop and conduct a monitoring program, which we believe are broadly applicable to assessments of environmental impact and restoration success in other rivers. In particular, we learned that (a) pre-treatment planning can enhance monitoring effectiveness, help avoid unforeseen pitfalls, and lead to more robust conclusions; (b) developing adaptable conceptual and analytical models early was crucial to organizing our knowledge, guiding our study design, and analyzing our data; (c) catchment-wide processes that we did not monitor, or initially consider, had profound implications for interpreting our findings; and (d) using multiple analytical frameworks, with varying assumptions, led to clearer interpretation of findings than the use of a single framework alone. Broader integration of these guiding principles into monitoring studies, though potentially challenging, could lead to more scientifically defensible assessments of project effects.

Population estimates and monitoring guidelines for endangered Laysan Teal, Anas Laysanensis, at Midway Atoll: Pilot study results 2008-2010.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Michelle H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Laniawe, Leona

2011-01-01

To improve the Laysan Teal population estimates, we recommend changes to the monitoring protocol. Additional years of data are needed to quantify inter-annual seasonal detection probabilities, which may allow the use of standardized direct counts as an unbiased index of population size. Survey protocols should be enhanced through frequent resights, regular survey intervals, and determining reliable standards to detect catastrophic declines and annual changes in adult abundance. In late 2009 to early 2010, 68% of the population was marked with unique color band combinations. This allowed for potentially accurate adult population estimates and survival estimates without the need to mark new birds in 2010, 2011, and possibly 2012. However, efforts should be made to replace worn or illegible bands so birds can be identified in future surveys. It would be valuable to develop more sophisticated population size and survival models using Program MARK, a state-of-the-art software package which uses likelihood models to analyze mark-recapture data. This would allow for more reliable adult population and survival estimates to compare with the ―source‖ Laysan Teal population on Laysan Island. These models will require additional years of resight data (> 1 year) and, in some cases, an intensive annual effort of marking and recapture. Because data indicate standardized all-wetland counts are a poor index of abundance, monitoring efforts could be improved by expanding resight surveys to include all wetlands, discontinuing the all-wetland counts, and reallocating some of the wetland count effort to collect additional opportunistic resights. Approximately two years of additional bimonthly surveys are needed to validate the direct count as an appropriate index of population abundance. Additional years of individual resight data will allow estimates of adult population size, as specified in recovery criteria, and to track species population dynamics at Midway Atoll.

Establishing conservation baselines with dynamic distribution models for bat populations facing imminent decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

2015-01-01

Landscape keystone structures associated with roosting habitat emerged as regionally important predictors of bat distributions. The challenges of bat monitoring have constrained previous species distribution modelling efforts to temporally static presence-only approaches. Our approach extends to broader spatial and temporal scales than has been possible in the past for bats, making a substantial increase in capacity for bat conservation.

Efficacy of traps, lures, and repellents for Xylosandrus compactus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) and other ambrosia beetles on Coffea arabica plantations and Acacia koa nurseries in Hawaii

Treesearch

E. G. Burbano; M.G. Wright; N.E. Gillette; S. Mori; N. Dudley; N. Jones; M. Kaufmann

2012-01-01

The black twig borer, Xylosandrus compactus (Eichhoff) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), is a pest of coffee and many endemic Hawaiian plants. Traps baited with chemical attractants commonly are used to capture ambrosia beetles for purposes of monitoring, studying population dynamics, predicting outbreaks, and mass trapping to reduce damage...

Monitoring Bloom Dynamics of a Common Coastal Bioluminescent Ctenophore

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

profound impacts on coastal ecosystems. Although the causes of jellyfish blooms are not well understood, correlations have been made between...changes in jellyfish density and changes in physical factors, such as temperature and salinity, and biological factors, such as prey abundance and...Current sampling methods for jellyfish populations are done with net collections by hand at stations weekly, monthly, or seasonally. These time scales

Assessment of the effect of development of the Bovanenkovskoe gas-condensate field in the middle Yamal region on the dynamics of the polar fox population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobrinskii, N.L.; Sosin, V.F.

Based on the findings of integrated monitoring research, the state of polar fox population in a zone of heavy technogenic pressure is assessed experimentally. Networks of breeding burrows on permanent experimental and control plots were carefully examined over the course of three summer seasons. Active development of the Bovanenkovskoe gas-condensate field has led to loss of the central portion of this area as a zone of polar fox restocking. Heavy accelerated exploitation of other gas and gas-condensate fields in the Yamal Peninsula may lower the Yamal population of polar fox to the verge of extinction. 15 refs.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Modeling tradeoffs in avian life history traits and consequences for population growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.E.; Martin, T.E.

2007-01-01

Variation in population dynamics is inherently related to life history characteristics of species, which vary markedly even within phylogenetic groups such as passerine birds. We computed the finite rate of population change (??) from a matrix projection model and from mark-recapture observations for 23 bird species breeding in northern Arizona. We used sensitivity analyses and a simulation model to separate contributions of different life history traits to population growth rate. In particular we focused on contrasting effects of components of reproduction (nest success, clutch size, number of clutches, and juvenile survival) versus adult survival on ??. We explored how changes in nest success or adult survival coupled to costs in other life history parameters affected ?? over a life history gradient provided by our 23 Arizona species, as well as a broader sample of 121 North American passerine species. We further examined these effects for more than 200 passeriform and piciform populations breeding across North America. Model simulations indicate nest success and juvenile survival exert the largest effects on population growth in species with moderate to high reproductive output, whereas adult survival contributed more to population growth in long-lived species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring breeding success in populations across a broad geographic area provides an important index for identifying neotropical migratory populations at risk of serious population declines and a potential method for identifying large-scale mechanisms regulating population dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental change disrupts communication and sexual selection in a stickleback population.

PubMed

Candolin, Ulrika; Tukiainen, Iina; Bertell, Elina

2016-04-01

Environmental change that disrupts communication during mate choice and alters sexual selection could influence population dynamics. Yet little is known about such long-term effects. We investigated experimentally the consequences that disrupted visual communication during mate choice has for the quantity and viability of offspring produced in a threespine stickleback population (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We further related the results to long-term monitoring of population dynamics in the field to determine if changes are apparent under natural conditions. The results show that impaired visual communication because of algal blooms reduces reliability of male visual signals as indicators of offspring survival during their first weeks of life. This relaxes sexual selection but has no effect on the number of offspring hatching, as most males have a high hatching success in turbid water. Despite eutrophication and high turbidity levels that interfere with communication during mate choice, the population has grown during recent decades. Large numbers of offspring hatching, combined with high variation in juvenile fitness, has probably shifted selection to later life history stages and maintained a viable population. Together with reduced cost of sexual selection and ongoing ecosystem changes caused by human activities, this could have promoted population growth. These results point to the complexity of ecosystems and the necessity to consider all influencing factors when attempting to understand impacts of human activities on populations.

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density

PubMed Central

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-01-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level. PMID:26257881

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density.

PubMed

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-07-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level.

Recovery of Durvillaea antarctica (Durvilleales) inside and outside Las Cruces Marine Reserve, Chile.

PubMed

Castilla, J C; Campo, M A; Bustamante, R H

2007-07-01

We present the results for over two decades of monitoring on intertidal food-gatherers and the population of the low rocky shore dweller kelp Durvillaea antarctica, a short-distance disperser, inside and outside the no-take marine reserve, Estacion Costera de Investigaciones Marinas (ECIM), at Las Cruces, central Chile. It was hypothesized that protection of an initially extremely depleted population would recover by recolonizing first the no-take area and then adjacent non-protected (exploited) areas. We found that recovery of D. antarctica occurred slowly inside ECIM, with increase in density and biomass, of up to three orders of magnitude as compared to an adjacent non-protected area, which showed approximately 2-yr delay. These results suggest that the kelp population inside ECIM was likely regulated via intraspecific competition, which did not occur outside. Results showed no evidence for juvenile vs. adult density dependence other than a weak relationship for the central area of ECIM. These findings also suggest that the population recovery and cross-boundary seeding subsides affected the population dynamics. Understanding these dynamics may enhance management and conservation policies. Our work highlights the critical value of baseline and long-term comparative studies in marine no-take protected and non-protected areas for understanding how population processes respond to human and conservation practices.

Determination of the formation of dark state via depleted spontaneous emission in a complex solvated molecule.

PubMed

Guo, Xunmin; Wang, Sufan; Xia, Andong; Su, Hongmei

2007-07-05

We present a general two-color two-pulse femtosecond pump-dump approach to study the specific population transfer along the reaction coordinate through the higher vibrational energy levels of excited states of a complex solvated molecule via the depleted spontaneous emission. The time-dependent fluorescence depletion provides the correlated dynamical information between the monitored fluorescence state and the SEP "dumped" dark states, and therefore allow us to obtain the dynamics of the formation of the dark states corresponding to the ultrafast photoisomerization processes. The excited-state dynamics of LDS 751 have been investigated as a function of solvent viscosity and solvent polarity, where a cooperative two-step isomerization process is clearly identified within LDS 751 upon excitation.

The Ancient Maya Landscape from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, T.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

The Peten, once inhabited by a population of several million before the collapse of the ancient Maya in the 10th and 11th centuries, is being repopulated toward its former demographic peak. Environmental dynamics, however, impose severe constraints to further development. Current practices in subsistence, commercial agriculture, and cattle raising are causing rapid deforestation resulting in the destruction of environmental and archeological resources. The use of remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology is a cost-effective methodology for addressing issues in Maya archeology as well as monitoring the environmental impacts being experienced by the current population.

Impact of an extreme climatic event on community assembly.

PubMed

Thibault, Katherine M; Brown, James H

2008-03-04

Extreme climatic events are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude, but their ecological impacts are poorly understood. Such events are large, infrequent, stochastic perturbations that can change the outcome of entrained ecological processes. Here we show how an extreme flood event affected a desert rodent community that has been monitored for 30 years. The flood (i) caused catastrophic, species-specific mortality; (ii) eliminated the incumbency advantage of previously dominant species; (iii) reset long-term population and community trends; (iv) interacted with competitive and metapopulation dynamics; and (v) resulted in rapid, wholesale reorganization of the community. This and a previous extreme rainfall event were punctuational perturbations-they caused large, rapid population- and community-level changes that were superimposed on a background of more gradual trends driven by climate and vegetation change. Captured by chance through long-term monitoring, the impacts of such large, infrequent events provide unique insights into the processes that structure ecological communities.

Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

2014-01-01

Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.

Restoring Resiliency: Case Studies from Pacific Northwest Estuarine Eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thom, Ronald M.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Vavrinec, John

2012-01-01

The purpose of many ecological restoration projects is to establish an ecosystem with fully developed structure and function that exhibits resistance to and resilience from disturbances. Coastal restoration projects in the Pacific Northwest provide opportunities to understand what is required to restore the resilience of eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) populations. Factors influencing resilience observed in three case studies of eelgrass restoration include minimum viable population, adaptations of transplant populations, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances at restoration sites. The evaluation of resiliency depends on selecting appropriate monitoring metrics and the frequency and duration of monitoring. Eelgrass area, cover and shoot densitymore » provide useful and reliable metrics for quantifying resilience of restored meadows. Further, five years of monitoring of these metrics provides data that can reasonably predict the long-term viability of a planted plot. Eelgrass appears to be a resilient ecosystem in general, though one that data suggest may exhibit tipping points brought about by compounded environmental conditions outside of its tolerance ranges. Explicit inclusion of resilience in the planning and practice of habitat restoration may reduce uncertainties and improve the performance of restored systems by increasing buffering capacity, nurturing sources of renewal (e.g., seeds and rhizomes), and managing for habitat forming and maintaining processes (e.g., sediment dynamics) at multiple scales.« less

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

2016-01-01

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Altered resource availability and the population dynamics of tree species in Amazonian secondary forests.

PubMed

Fortini, Lucas Berio; Bruna, Emilio M; Zarin, Daniel J; Vasconcelos, Steel S; Miranda, Izildinha S

2010-04-01

Despite research demonstrating that water and nutrient availability exert strong effects on multiple ecosystem processes in tropical forests, little is known about the effect of these factors on the demography and population dynamics of tropical trees. Over the course of 5 years, we monitored two common Amazonian secondary forest species-Lacistema pubescens and Myrcia sylvatica-in dry-season irrigation, litter-removal and control plots. We then evaluated the effects of altered water and nutrient availability on population demography and dynamics using matrix models and life table response experiments. Our results show that despite prolonged experimental manipulation of water and nutrient availability, there were nearly no consistent and unidirectional treatment effects on the demography of either species. The patterns and significance of observed treatment effects were largely dependent on cross-year variability not related to rainfall patterns, and disappeared once we pooled data across years. Furthermore, most of these transient treatment effects had little effect on population growth rates. Our results suggest that despite major experimental manipulations of water and nutrient availability-factors considered critical to the ecology of tropical pioneer tree species-autogenic light limitation appears to be the primary regulator of tree demography at early/mid successional stages. Indeed, the effects of light availability may completely override those of other factors thought to influence the successional development of Amazonian secondary forests.

Multiscale approach to pest insect monitoring: Random walks, pattern formation, synchronization, and networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrovskii, Sergei; Petrovskaya, Natalia; Bearup, Daniel

2014-09-01

Pest insects pose a significant threat to food production worldwide resulting in annual losses worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Pest control attempts to prevent pest outbreaks that could otherwise destroy a sward. It is good practice in integrated pest management to recommend control actions (usually pesticides application) only when the pest density exceeds a certain threshold. Accurate estimation of pest population density in ecosystems, especially in agro-ecosystems, is therefore very important, and this is the overall goal of the pest insect monitoring. However, this is a complex and challenging task; providing accurate information about pest abundance is hardly possible without taking into account the complexity of ecosystems' dynamics, in particular, the existence of multiple scales. In the case of pest insects, monitoring has three different spatial scales, each of them having their own scale-specific goal and their own approaches to data collection and interpretation. In this paper, we review recent progress in mathematical models and methods applied at each of these scales and show how it helps to improve the accuracy and robustness of pest population density estimation.

Characterizing Total Radiation Belt Electron Content Using Van Allen Probes Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C. L.; Spence, H. E.; Boyd, A. J.; Jordan, A.; Paulson, K. W.; Zhang, J.; Blake, J. B.; Kletzing, C.

2014-12-01

The comprehensive particle and wave measurements of the Van Allen Probes enable us to monitor the entire radiation belt near the equator from L-shells of 2.5 to 6. Using the particle measurements, we create an improved, high-level quantity representing the entire outer belt. This quantity, the total radiation belt electron content (TRBEC), is the half-orbit sum of outer belt electrons over the radiation belt energy ranges of importance and all pitch angles using data from RBSP-ECT instrument on board both spacecraft. The goal is to characterize statistically the dynamics of the entire radiation belt by comparing TRBEC with solar wind parameters, magnetospheric waves, and electron seed population. When comparing TRBEC with solar wind velocity, our result shows a triangle-distribution similar to that which Reeves et al. (2011) found using geosynchronous electron flux. We also correlate TRBEC with other solar wind parameters to identify which solar wind conditions effectively enhance or deplete radiation belt electrons. In addition, plasma waves in the inner magnetosphere, via wave-particle interaction, are key elements affecting the dynamics of the radiation belt. Therefore, we compare TRBEC with integrated EMIC and chorus (upper and lower bands) wave power calculated from EMFISIS wave measurements to determine the relative importance between each wave-particle process. Finally, we demonstrate the ~100 keV seed population's characteristics that correspond to the MeV population enhancement. While the gross features of the two populations are similar, the MeV population's dynamics lag behind those of the seed population by 5 to 60 hours, which implies the acceleration or loss processes vary by event.

Characterizing Intra-Urban Air Quality Gradients with a Spatially-Distributed Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmerman, N.; Ellis, A.; Schurman, M. I.; Gu, P.; Li, H.; Snell, L.; Gu, J.; Subramanian, R.; Robinson, A. L.; Apte, J.; Presto, A. A.

2016-12-01

City-wide air pollution measurements have typically relied on regulatory or research monitoring sites with low spatial density to assess population-scale exposure. However, air pollutant concentrations exhibit significant spatial variability depending on local sources and features of the built environment, which may not be well captured by the existing monitoring regime. To better understand urban spatial and temporal pollution gradients at 1 km resolution, a network of 12 real-time air quality monitoring stations was deployed beginning July 2016 in Pittsburgh, PA. The stations were deployed at sites along an urban-rural transect and in urban locations with a range of traffic, restaurant, and tall building densities to examine the impact of various modifiable factors. Measurements from the stationary monitoring stations were further supported by mobile monitoring, which provided higher spatial resolution pollutant measurements on nearby roadways and enabled routine calibration checks. The stationary monitoring measurements comprise ultrafine particle number (Aerosol Dynamics "MAGIC" CPC), PM2.5 (Met One Neighborhood PM Monitor), black carbon (Met One BC 1050), and a new low-cost air quality monitor, the Real-time Affordable Multi-Pollutant (RAMP) sensor package for measuring CO, NO2, SO2, O3, CO2, temperature and relative humidity. High time-resolution (sub-minute) measurements across the distributed monitoring network enable insight into dynamic pollutant behaviour. Our preliminary findings show that our instruments are sensitive to PM2.5 gradients exceeding 2 micro-grams per cubic meter and ultrafine particle gradients exceeding 1000 particles per cubic centimeter. Additionally, we have developed rigorous calibration protocols to characterize the RAMP sensor response and drift, as well as multiple linear regression models to convert sensor response into pollutant concentrations that are comparable to reference instrumentation.

Dynamics and life histories of northern ungulates in changing environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrichsen, D. K.

2011-12-01

Regional climate and local weather conditions can profoundly influence life history parameters (growth, survival, fecundity) and population dynamics in northern ungulates (Post and Stenseth 1999, Coulson et al. 2001). The influence is both direct, for example through reduced growth or survival (Aanes et al. 2000, Tyler et al. 2008), and indirect, for example through changes in resource distribution, phenology and quality, changes which subsequently influence consumer dynamics (Post et al. 2008). By comparing and contrasting data from three spatially independent populations of ungulates, I discuss how variation in local weather parameters and vegetation growth influence spatial and temporal dynamics through changes in life history parameters and/or behavioural dynamics. The data originate from long term (11-15 years) monitoring data from three populations of ungulates in one subarctic and two high Arctic sites; semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Norway, Svalbard reindeer (R. t. platyrhynchus) on Spitsbergen and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) in Northeast Greenland. The results show that juvenile animals can be particularly vulnerable to changes in their environment, and that this is mirrored to different degrees in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the three populations. Adverse weather conditions, acting either directly or mediated through access to and quality of vegetation, experienced by young early in life, or even by their dams during pregnancy, can lead to reduced growth, lower survival and reduced reproductive performance later in life. The influence of current climatic variation, and the predictions of how local weather conditions may change over time, differs between the three sites, resulting in potentially different responses in the three populations. Aanes R, Saether BE and Øritsland NA. 2000. Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation. Ecography, 23: 437-443 Coulson T, Catchpole EA, Albon SD, Morgan BJT, Pemberton JM, Clutton-Brock TH, Crawley MJ and Grenfell BT. 2001. Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science, 292: 1528-1531 Post, E and Stenseth NC. 1999. Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates. Ecology, 80: 1322-1339 Post E, Pedersen C, Wilmers CC and Forchhammer MC. 2008. Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores. Proc. Roy Soc. B., 275: 2005-2013 Tyler NJC, Forchhammer MC and Øritsland NA. 2008. Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer. Ecology, 89: 1675-1686

Changes in Cryphonectria parasitica Populations Affect Natural Biological Control of Chestnut Blight.

PubMed

Ježić, Marin; Mlinarec, Jelena; Vuković, Rosemary; Katanić, Zorana; Krstin, Ljiljana; Nuskern, Lucija; Poljak, Igor; Idžojtić, Marilena; Tkalec, Mirta; Ćurković-Perica, Mirna

2018-07-01

Invasive species, especially plant pathogens, have a potential to completely eradicate native plant species and remodel landscapes. Tripartite interactions among sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa), chestnut blight-causing invasive fungus Cryphonectria parasitica, and hyperparasitic virus Cryphonectria hypovirus 1 (CHV1) were studied in two populations. The number of different vegetative compatibility (vc) types of C. parasitica more than doubled over the 10 years, while the hypovirulence incidence dropped in one population and slightly increased in the other one. Over the course of our 3-year monitoring experiment, the prevalence of hypovirulent isolates obtained from monitored cankers increased slowly (i.e., more hypovirulent isolates were being obtained from the same cankers over time). Within studied cankers, considerable changes in vc type and CHV1 presence were observed, indicating a highly dynamic system in which virulent and hypovirulent mycelia, sometimes of discordant vc types, often appeared together. The increase in hypovirulence prevalence did not have any observable curative effect on the cankers and, occasionally, reactivation of healed cankers by new, virulent C. parasitica isolates was observed. Both short- and long-term observations and revalidation of the infected plant populations are necessary to accurately estimate disease progress and formulate an adequate disease management strategy.

Dynamic habitat selection by two wading bird species with divergent foraging strategies in a seasonally fluctuating wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beerens, James M.; Gawlik, Dale E.; Herring, Garth; Cook, Mark I.

2011-01-01

Seasonal and annual variation in food availability during the breeding season plays an influential role in the population dynamics of many avian species. In highly dynamic ecosystems like wetlands, finding and exploiting food resources requires a flexible behavioral response that may produce different population trends that vary with a species' foraging strategy. We quantified dynamic foraging-habitat selection by breeding and radiotagged White Ibises (Eudocimus albus) and Great Egrets (Ardea alba) in the Florida Everglades, where fluctuation in food resources is pronounced because of seasonal drying and flooding. The White Ibis is a tactile “searcher” species in population decline that specializes on highly concentrated prey, whereas the Great Egret, in a growing population, is a visual “exploiter” species that requires lower prey concentrations. In a year with high food availability, resource-selection functions for both species included variables that changed over multiannual time scales and were associated with increased prey production. In a year with low food availability, resource-selection functions included short-term variables that concentrated prey (e.g., water recession rates and reversals in drying pattern), which suggests an adaptive response to poor foraging conditions. In both years, the White Ibis was more restricted in its use of habitats than the Great Egret. Real-time species—habitat suitability models were developed to monitor and assess the daily availability and quality of spatially explicit habitat resources for both species. The models, evaluated through hindcasting using independent observations, demonstrated that habitat use of the more specialized White Ibis was more accurately predicted than that of the more generalist Great Egret.

On the estimation of dispersal and movement of birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2004-01-01

The estimation of dispersal and movement is important to evolutionary and population ecologists, as well as to wildlife managers. We review statistical methodology available to estimate movement probabilities. We begin with cases where individual birds can be marked and their movements estimated with the use of multisite capture-recapture methods. Movements can be monitored either directly, using telemetry, or by accounting for detection probability when conventional marks are used. When one or more sites are unobservable, telemetry, band recoveries, incidental observations, a closed- or open-population robust design, or partial determinism in movements can be used to estimate movement. When individuals cannot be marked, presence-absence data can be used to model changes in occupancy over time, providing indirect inferences about movement. Where abundance estimates over time are available for multiple sites, potential coupling of their dynamics can be investigated using linear cross-correlation or nonlinear dynamic tools.

Ultrafast Dynamics in DNA and RNA Derivatives Monitored by Broadband Transient Absorption Spectrscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brister, Matthew M.; Crespo-Hernández, Carlos E.

2015-06-01

The ultrafast dynamics of nucleic acids have been under scrutiny for the past couple of decades because of the role that the high-energy electronic states play in mutagenesis and carcinogenesis. Kinetic models have been proposed, based on both experimental and theoretical discoveries. Direct experimental evidence of the intersystem crossing rate and population of the triplet state for most nucleic acid bases has yet to be reported, even though the triplet state is thought to be the most reactive species. Utilizing broadband femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy, we reveal the time scale at which singlet-to-triplet population transfer occurs in several nucleic acid derivatives in the condensed phase. The implication of these results to the current understanding of the DNA and RNA photochemistry will be discussed. The authors acknowledge the CAREER program of the National Science Foundation (Grant No. CHE-1255084) for financial support.

Identification of effective exciton-exciton annihilation in squaraine-squaraine copolymers.

PubMed

Hader, Kilian; May, Volkhard; Lambert, Christoph; Engel, Volker

2016-05-11

Ultrafast time-resolved transient absorption spectroscopy is able to monitor the fate of the excited state population in molecular aggregates or polymers. Due to many competing decay processes, the identification of exciton-exciton annihilation (EEA) is difficult. Here, we use a microscopic model to describe exciton annihilation processes in squaraine-squaraine copolymers. Transient absorption time traces measured at different laser powers exhibit an unusual time-dependence. The analysis points towards dynamics taking place on three time-scales. Immediately after laser-excitation a localization of excitons takes place within the femtosecond time-regime. This is followed by exciton-exciton annihilation which is responsible for a fast decay of the exciton population. At later times, excitations being localized on units which are not directly connected remain so that diffusion dominates the dynamics and leads to a slower decay. We thus provide evidence for EEA tracked by time-resolved spectroscopy which has not been reported that clearly before.

Epidemiology of the Emergent Disease Paridae pox in an Intensively Studied Wild Bird Population

PubMed Central

Lachish, Shelly; Lawson, Becki; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Sheldon, Ben C.

2012-01-01

Paridae pox, a novel avipoxvirus infection, has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease affecting wild tit species in Great Britain. The incursion of Paridae pox to a long-term study site where populations of wild tits have been monitored in detail for several decades provided a unique opportunity to obtain information on the local-scale epidemiological characteristics of this novel infection during a disease outbreak. Using captures of >8000 individual birds, we show that, within two years of initial emergence, Paridae pox had become established within the population of great tits (Parus major) reaching relatively high peak prevalence (10%), but was far less prevalent (<1%) in sympatric populations of several other closely related, abundant Paridae species. Nonlinear smoothing models revealed that the temporal pattern of prevalence among great tits was characterised by within-year fluctuations indicative of seasonal forcing of infection rates, which was likely driven by multiple environmental and demographic factors. There was individual heterogeneity in the course of infection and, although recovery was possible, diseased individuals were far less likely to be recaptured than healthy individuals, suggesting a survival cost of infection. This study demonstrates the value of long-term monitoring for obtaining key epidemiological data necessary to understand disease dynamics, spread and persistence in natural populations. PMID:23185230

Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

2012-01-01

Despite its common status, M. lucifugus was only detected during ∼50% of the surveys in occupied sample units. The overall naïve estimate for the proportion of the study region occupied by the species was 0.69, but after accounting for imperfect detection, this increased to ∼0.90. Our models provide evidence of an association between NPP and forest cover and M. lucifugus distribution, with implications for the projected effects of accelerated climate change in the region, which include net aridification as snowpack and stream flows decline. Annual turnover, the probability that an occupied sample unit was a newly occupied one, was estimated to be low (∼0.04–0.14), resulting in flat trend estimated with relatively high precision (SD = 0.04). We mapped the variation in predicted occurrence probabilities and corresponding prediction uncertainty along the productivity gradient. Our results provide a much needed baseline against which future anticipated declines in M. lucifugus occurrence can be measured. The dynamic distribution modeling approach has broad applicability to regional bat monitoring efforts now underway in several countries and we suggest ways to improve and expand our grid-based monitoring program to gain robust insights into bat population status and trend across large portions of North America.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Wildlife disease ecology from the individual to the population: Insights from a long-term study of a naturally infected European badger population.

PubMed

McDonald, Jenni L; Robertson, Andrew; Silk, Matthew J

2018-01-01

Long-term individual-based datasets on host-pathogen systems are a rare and valuable resource for understanding the infectious disease dynamics in wildlife. A study of European badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) at Woodchester Park in Gloucestershire (UK) has produced a unique dataset, facilitating investigation of a diverse range of epidemiological and ecological questions with implications for disease management. Since the 1970s, this badger population has been monitored with a systematic mark-recapture regime yielding a dataset of >15,000 captures of >3,000 individuals, providing detailed individual life-history, morphometric, genetic, reproductive and disease data. The annual prevalence of bTB in the Woodchester Park badger population exhibits no straightforward relationship with population density, and both the incidence and prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis show marked variation in space. The study has revealed phenotypic traits that are critical for understanding the social structure of badger populations along with mechanisms vital for understanding disease spread at different spatial resolutions. Woodchester-based studies have provided key insights into how host ecology can influence infection at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, it has revealed heterogeneity in epidemiological parameters; intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting population dynamics; provided insights into senescence and individual life histories; and revealed consistent individual variation in foraging patterns, refuge use and social interactions. An improved understanding of ecological and epidemiological processes is imperative for effective disease management. Woodchester Park research has provided information of direct relevance to bTB management, and a better appreciation of the role of individual heterogeneity in disease transmission can contribute further in this regard. The Woodchester Park study system now offers a rare opportunity to seek a dynamic understanding of how individual-, group- and population-level processes interact. The wealth of existing data makes it possible to take a more integrative approach to examining how the consequences of individual heterogeneity scale to determine population-level pathogen dynamics and help advance our understanding of the ecological drivers of host-pathogen systems. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Episodic death across species of desert shrubs.

PubMed

Miriti, Maria N; Rodríguez-Buriticá, Susana; Wright, S Joseph; Howe, Henry F

2007-01-01

Extreme events shape population and community trajectories. We report episodic mortality across common species of thousands of long-lived perennials individually tagged and monitored for 20 years in the Colorado Desert of California following severe regional drought. Demographic records from 1984 to 2004 show 15 years of virtual stasis in populations of adult shrubs and cacti, punctuated by a 55-100% die-off of six of the seven most common perennial species. In this episode, adults that experienced reduced growth in a lesser drought during 1984-1989 failed to survive the drought of 2002. The significance of this event is potentially profound because population dynamics of long-lived plants can be far more strongly affected by deaths of adults, which in deserts potentially live for centuries, than by seedling births or deaths. Differential mortality and rates of recovery during and after extreme climatic events quite likely determine the species composition of plant and associated animal communities for at least decades. The die-off recorded in this closely monitored community provides a unique window into the mechanics of this process of species decline and replacement.

Occupancy models for monitoring marine fish: a bayesian hierarchical approach to model imperfect detection with a novel gear combination.

PubMed

Coggins, Lewis G; Bacheler, Nathan M; Gwinn, Daniel C

2014-01-01

Occupancy models using incidence data collected repeatedly at sites across the range of a population are increasingly employed to infer patterns and processes influencing population distribution and dynamics. While such work is common in terrestrial systems, fewer examples exist in marine applications. This disparity likely exists because the replicate samples required by these models to account for imperfect detection are often impractical to obtain when surveying aquatic organisms, particularly fishes. We employ simultaneous sampling using fish traps and novel underwater camera observations to generate the requisite replicate samples for occupancy models of red snapper, a reef fish species. Since the replicate samples are collected simultaneously by multiple sampling devices, many typical problems encountered when obtaining replicate observations are avoided. Our results suggest that augmenting traditional fish trap sampling with camera observations not only doubled the probability of detecting red snapper in reef habitats off the Southeast coast of the United States, but supplied the necessary observations to infer factors influencing population distribution and abundance while accounting for imperfect detection. We found that detection probabilities tended to be higher for camera traps than traditional fish traps. Furthermore, camera trap detections were influenced by the current direction and turbidity of the water, indicating that collecting data on these variables is important for future monitoring. These models indicate that the distribution and abundance of this species is more heavily influenced by latitude and depth than by micro-scale reef characteristics lending credence to previous characterizations of red snapper as a reef habitat generalist. This study demonstrates the utility of simultaneous sampling devices, including camera traps, in aquatic environments to inform occupancy models and account for imperfect detection when describing factors influencing fish population distribution and dynamics.

Occupancy Models for Monitoring Marine Fish: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Model Imperfect Detection with a Novel Gear Combination

PubMed Central

Coggins, Lewis G.; Bacheler, Nathan M.; Gwinn, Daniel C.

2014-01-01

Occupancy models using incidence data collected repeatedly at sites across the range of a population are increasingly employed to infer patterns and processes influencing population distribution and dynamics. While such work is common in terrestrial systems, fewer examples exist in marine applications. This disparity likely exists because the replicate samples required by these models to account for imperfect detection are often impractical to obtain when surveying aquatic organisms, particularly fishes. We employ simultaneous sampling using fish traps and novel underwater camera observations to generate the requisite replicate samples for occupancy models of red snapper, a reef fish species. Since the replicate samples are collected simultaneously by multiple sampling devices, many typical problems encountered when obtaining replicate observations are avoided. Our results suggest that augmenting traditional fish trap sampling with camera observations not only doubled the probability of detecting red snapper in reef habitats off the Southeast coast of the United States, but supplied the necessary observations to infer factors influencing population distribution and abundance while accounting for imperfect detection. We found that detection probabilities tended to be higher for camera traps than traditional fish traps. Furthermore, camera trap detections were influenced by the current direction and turbidity of the water, indicating that collecting data on these variables is important for future monitoring. These models indicate that the distribution and abundance of this species is more heavily influenced by latitude and depth than by micro-scale reef characteristics lending credence to previous characterizations of red snapper as a reef habitat generalist. This study demonstrates the utility of simultaneous sampling devices, including camera traps, in aquatic environments to inform occupancy models and account for imperfect detection when describing factors influencing fish population distribution and dynamics. PMID:25255325

Selection dynamic of Escherichia coli host in M13 combinatorial peptide phage display libraries.

PubMed

Zanconato, Stefano; Minervini, Giovanni; Poli, Irene; De Lucrezia, Davide

2011-01-01

Phage display relies on an iterative cycle of selection and amplification of random combinatorial libraries to enrich the initial population of those peptides that satisfy a priori chosen criteria. The effectiveness of any phage display protocol depends directly on library amino acid sequence diversity and the strength of the selection procedure. In this study we monitored the dynamics of the selective pressure exerted by the host organism on a random peptide library in the absence of any additional selection pressure. The results indicate that sequence censorship exerted by Escherichia coli dramatically reduces library diversity and can significantly impair phage display effectiveness.

Stochasticity and Spatial Interaction Govern Stem Cell Differentiation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Quinton; Stukalin, Evgeny; Kusuma, Sravanti; Gerecht, Sharon; Sun, Sean X.

2015-07-01

Stem cell differentiation underlies many fundamental processes such as development, tissue growth and regeneration, as well as disease progression. Understanding how stem cell differentiation is controlled in mixed cell populations is an important step in developing quantitative models of cell population dynamics. Here we focus on quantifying the role of cell-cell interactions in determining stem cell fate. Toward this, we monitor stem cell differentiation in adherent cultures on micropatterns and collect statistical cell fate data. Results show high cell fate variability and a bimodal probability distribution of stem cell fraction on small (80-140 μm diameter) micropatterns. On larger (225-500 μm diameter) micropatterns, the variability is also high but the distribution of the stem cell fraction becomes unimodal. Using a stochastic model, we analyze the differentiation dynamics and quantitatively determine the differentiation probability as a function of stem cell fraction. Results indicate that stem cells can interact and sense cellular composition in their immediate neighborhood and adjust their differentiation probability accordingly. Blocking epithelial cadherin (E-cadherin) can diminish this cell-cell contact mediated sensing. For larger micropatterns, cell motility adds a spatial dimension to the picture. Taken together, we find stochasticity and cell-cell interactions are important factors in determining cell fate in mixed cell populations.

Ecological bridges and barriers in pelagic ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briscoe, Dana K.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Carlisle, Aaron; Scales, Kylie; Eveson, J. Paige; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Druon, Jean Noel; Fromentin, Jean-Marc

2017-06-01

Many highly mobile species are known to use persistent pathways or corridors to move between habitat patches in which conditions are favorable for particular activities, such as breeding or foraging. In the marine realm, environmental variability can lead to the development of temporary periods of anomalous oceanographic conditions that can connect individuals to areas of habitat outside a population's usual range, or alternatively, restrict individuals from areas usually within their range, thus acting as ecological bridges or ecological barriers. These temporary features can result in novel or irregular trophic interactions and changes in population spatial dynamics, and, therefore, may have significant implications for management of marine ecosystems. Here, we provide evidence of ecological bridges and barriers in different ocean regions, drawing upon five case studies in which particular oceanographic conditions have facilitated or restricted the movements of individuals from highly migratory species. We discuss the potential population-level significance of ecological bridges and barriers, with respect to the life history characteristics of different species, and inter- and intra-population variability in habitat use. Finally, we summarize the persistence of bridge dynamics with time, our ability to monitor bridges and barriers in a changing climate, and implications for forecasting future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

Monitoring of pile composting process of OFMSW at full scale and evaluation of odour emission impact.

PubMed

Gutiérrez, M C; Martín, M A; Serrano, A; Chica, A F

2015-03-15

In this study, the evolution of odour concentration (ouE/m(3)STP) emitted during the pile composting of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) was monitored by dynamic olfactometry. Physical-chemical variables as well as the respirometric variables were also analysed. The aim of this work was twofold. The first was to determine the relationship between odour and traditional variables to determine if dynamic olfactometry is a feasible and adequate technique for monitoring an aerobic stabilisation process (composting). Second, the composting process odour impact on surrounding areas was simulated by a dispersion model. The results showed that the decrease of odour concentration, total organic carbon and respirometric variables was similar (around 96, 96 y 98% respectively). The highest odour emission (5224 ouE/m(3)) was reached in parallel with the highest microbiological activity (SOUR and OD20 values of 25 mgO2/gVS · h and 70 mgO2/gVS, respectively). The validity of monitoring odour emissions during composting in combination with traditional and respirometric variables was demonstrated by the adequate correlation obtained between the variables. Moreover, the quantification of odour emissions by dynamic olfactometry and the subsequent application of the dispersion model permitted making an initial prediction of the impact of odorous emissions on the population. Finally, the determination of CO2 and CH4 emissions allowed the influence of composting process on carbon reservoirs and global warming to be evaluated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using population viability criteria to assess strategies to minimize disease threats for an endangered carnivore.

PubMed

Doak, Daniel F; Bakker, Victoria J; Vickers, Winston

2013-04-01

Outbreaks of infectious disease represent serious threats to the viability of many vertebrate populations, but few studies have included quantitative evaluations of alternative approaches to the management of disease. The most prevalent management approach is monitoring for and rapid response to an epizootic. An alternative is vaccination of a subset of the free-living population (i.e., a "vaccinated core") such that some individuals are partially or fully immune in the event of an epizootic. We developed a simulation model describing epizootic dynamics, which we then embedded in a demographic simulation to assess these alternative approaches to managing rabies epizootics in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis), a species composed of only 6 small populations on the California Channel Islands. Although the monitor and respond approach was superior to the vaccinated-core approach for some transmission models and parameter values, this type of reactive management did not protect the population from rabies under many disease-transmission assumptions. In contrast, a logistically feasible program of prophylactic vaccination for part of the wild population yielded low extinction probabilities across all likely disease-transmission scenarios, even with recurrent disease introductions. Our use of a single metric of successful management-probability of extreme endangerment (i.e., quasi extinction)-to compare very different management approaches allowed an objective assessment of alternative strategies for controlling the threats posed by infectious disease outbreaks. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE PAGES

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew; ...

2015-09-30

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Altogether, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Together, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Altogether, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Monitoring population and environmental parameters of invasive mosquito species in Europe

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

To enable a better understanding of the overwhelming alterations in the invasive mosquito species (IMS), methodical insight into the population and environmental factors that govern the IMS and pathogen adaptations are essential. There are numerous ways of estimating mosquito populations, and usually these describe developmental and life-history parameters. The key population parameters that should be considered during the surveillance of invasive mosquito species are: (1) population size and dynamics during the season, (2) longevity, (3) biting behaviour, and (4) dispersal capacity. Knowledge of these parameters coupled with vector competence may help to determine the vectorial capacity of IMS and basic disease reproduction number (R0) to support mosquito borne disease (MBD) risk assessment. Similarly, environmental factors include availability and type of larval breeding containers, climate change, environmental change, human population density, increased human travel and goods transport, changes in living, agricultural and farming habits (e.g. land use), and reduction of resources in the life cycle of mosquitoes by interventions (e.g. source reduction of aquatic habitats). Human population distributions, urbanisation, and human population movement are the key behavioural factors in most IMS-transmitted diseases. Anthropogenic issues are related to the global spread of MBD such as the introduction, reintroduction, circulation of IMS and increased exposure to humans from infected mosquito bites. This review addresses the population and environmental factors underlying the growing changes in IMS populations in Europe and confers the parameters selected by criteria of their applicability. In addition, overview of the commonly used and newly developed tools for their monitoring is provided. PMID:24739334

Estimating occupancy dynamics for large-scale monitoring networks: amphibian breeding occupancy across protected areas in the northeast United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2015-01-01

Regional monitoring strategies frequently employ a nested sampling design where a finite set of study areas from throughout a region are selected within which intensive sub-sampling occurs. This sampling protocol naturally lends itself to a hierarchical analysis to account for dependence among sub-samples. Implementing such an analysis within a classic likelihood framework is computationally prohibitive with species occurrence data when accounting for detection probabilities. Bayesian methods offer an alternative framework to make this analysis feasible. We demonstrate a general approach for estimating occupancy when data come from a nested sampling design. Using data from a regional monitoring program of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) in vernal pools, we analyzed data using static and dynamic occupancy frameworks. We analyzed observations from 2004-2013collected within 14 protected areas located throughout the northeast United States . We use the data set to estimate trends in occupancy at both the regional and individual protected area level. We show that occupancy at the regional level was relatively stable for both species. Much more variation occurred within individual study areas, with some populations declining and some increasing for both species. We found some evidence for a latitudinal gradient in trends among protected areas. However, support for this pattern is overestimated when the hierarchical nature of the data collection is not controlled for in the analysis. For both species, occupancy appeared to be declining in the most southern areas, while occupancy was stable or increasing in more northern areas. These results shed light on the range-level population status of these pond-breeding amphibians and our approach provides a framework that can be used to examine drivers of change including among-year and among-site variation in occurrence dynamics, while properly accounting for nested structure of data collection.

HydroGrid: Technologies for Global Water Quality and Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeghiazarian, L.

2017-12-01

Humans have been transforming planet Earth for millennia. We have recently come to understand that the collective impact of our decisions and actions has brought about severe water quality problems, which are likely to worsen in the light of rapid population growth to the projected nine billion by 2050. To sustainably manage our global water resources and possibly reverse these effects requires efforts in real-time monitoring of water contamination, analysis of monitoring data, and control of the state of water contamination. We develop technologies to address all three areas: monitoring, analysis and control. These efforts are carried out in the conceptual framework of the HydroGrid, an interconnected water system, which is (1) firmly rooted in the fundamental understanding of processes that govern microbial dynamics on multiple scales; and (2) used to develop watershed-specific management strategies. In the area of monitoring we are developing mobile autonomous sensors to detect surface water contamination, an effort supported by extensive materials research to provide multifunctional materials. We analyze environmental data within a stochastic modeling paradigm that bridges microscopic particle interactions to macroscopic manifestation of microbial population behavior in time and space in entire watersheds. These models are supported with laboratory and field experiments. Finally, we combine control and graph theories to derive controllability metrics of natural watersheds.

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

PubMed Central

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves. PMID:25028933

Coupled stream and population dynamics: Modeling the role beaver (Castor canadensis) play in generating juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, C.; Bouwes, N.; Wheaton, J. M.; Pollock, M.

2013-12-01

Over the past several centuries, the population of North American Beaver has been dramatically reduced through fur trapping. As a result, the geomorphic impacts long-term beaver occupancy and activity can have on fluvial systems have been lost, both from the landscape and from our collective memory such that physical and biological models of floodplain system function neither consider nor have the capacity to incorporate the role beaver can play in structuring the dynamics of streams. Concomitant with the decline in beaver populations was an increasing pressure on streams and floodplains through human activity, placing numerous species of stream rearing fishes in peril, most notably the ESA listing of trout and salmon populations across the entirety of the Western US. The rehabilitation of stream systems is seen as one of the primary means by which population and ecosystem recovery can be achieved, yet the methods of stream rehabilitation are applied almost exclusively with the expected outcome of a static idealized stream planform, occasionally with an acknowledgement of restoring processes rather than form and only rarely with the goal of a beaver dominated riverscape. We have constructed an individual based model of trout and beaver populations that allows the exploration of fish population dynamics as a function of stream habitat quality and quantity. We based the simulation tool on Bridge Creek (John Day River basin, Oregon) where we have implemented a large-scale restoration experiment using wooden posts to provide beavers with stable platforms for dam building and to simulate the dams themselves. Extensive monitoring captured geomorphic and riparian changes, as well as fish and beaver population responses; information we use to parameterize the model as to the geomorphic and fish response to dam building beavers. In the simulation environment, stream habitat quality and quantity can be manipulated directly through rehabilitation actions and indirectly through the dynamics of the co-occurring beaver population. The model allowed to us to ask questions critical for designing restoration strategies based on dam building beaver activity, such as what beaver population growth rate is required to develop and maintain floodplain connectivity in an incised system, or what beaver population size is required to increase juvenile steelhead production? The model was sensitive to several variables including beaver colony size, dams and colony dynamics and site fidelity, and thus highlights further research needs to fill critical information gaps.

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tieszen, Larry L.

2007-01-01

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

[Dynamics of adaptation processes and morbidity risk for the popupation of the territory of industrial cities].

PubMed

Prusakov, V M; Prusakova, A V

2014-01-01

There was investigated the character of the adaptation processes in the population residing in conditions ofprolonged exposure to environmental pollution in the territory of the industrial cities of the Irkutsk region in order to identify the possible periodicity of their manifestations in the formation of the morbidity risk for the population of different age groups. Under conditions of prolonged exposure to air pollution and other adverse unfavorable factors of industrial cities in the population of all age groups long cyclic changes of adaptation processes in the body in the form of repeated 11-15-years cycles in which a period of relative destabilization of physiological functions with lowered resistance is replaced by the period with the state of elevated nonspecific resistance were established to be observed. Undulating changes of the dynamics of the relative risks of general morbidity should be considered in the assessment of the medical and environmental situation in the territory and making the managing decisions at the base on the data of public health monitoring.

Application of Sequence-Dependent Electrophoresis Fingerprinting in Exploring Biodiversity and Population Dynamics of Human Intestinal Microbiota: What Can Be Revealed?

PubMed Central

Huys, Geert; Vanhoutte, Tom; Vandamme, Peter

2008-01-01

Sequence-dependent electrophoresis (SDE) fingerprinting techniques such as denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) have become commonplace in the field of molecular microbial ecology. The success of the SDE technology lays in the fact that it allows visualization of the predominant members of complex microbial ecosystems independent of their culturability and without prior knowledge on the complexity and diversity of the ecosystem. Mainly using the prokaryotic 16S rRNA gene as PCR amplification target, SDE-based community fingerprinting turned into one of the leading molecular tools to unravel the diversity and population dynamics of human intestinal microbiota. The first part of this review covers the methodological concept of SDE fingerprinting and the technical hurdles for analyzing intestinal samples. Subsequently, the current state-of-the-art of DGGE and related techniques to analyze human intestinal microbiota from healthy individuals and from patients with intestinal disorders is surveyed. In addition, the applicability of SDE analysis to monitor intestinal population changes upon nutritional or therapeutic interventions is critically evaluated. PMID:19277102

Measurements of beam halo diffusion and population density in the Tevatron and in the Large Hadron Collider

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stancari, Giulio

2015-03-01

Halo dynamics influences global accelerator performance: beam lifetimes, emittance growth, dynamic aperture, and collimation efficiency. Halo monitoring and control are also critical for the operation of high-power machines. For instance, in the high-luminosity upgrade of the LHC, the energy stored in the beam tails may reach several megajoules. Fast losses can result in superconducting magnet quenches, magnet damage, or even collimator deformation. The need arises to measure the beam halo and to remove it at controllable rates. In the Tevatron and in the LHC, halo population densities and diffusivities were measured with collimator scans by observing the time evolution ofmore » losses following small inward or outward collimator steps, under different experimental conditions: with single beams and in collision, and, in the case of the Tevatron, with a hollow electron lens acting on a subset of bunches. After the LHC resumes operations, it is planned to compare measured diffusivities with the known strength of transverse damper excitations. New proposals for nondestructive halo population density measurements are also briefly discussed.« less

Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep

PubMed Central

Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hogg, John T; Pelletier, Fanie

2006-01-01

Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24–28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator–prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation. PMID:16777749

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

PubMed Central

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-01-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients. PMID:22588131

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

PubMed

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-09-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

Spatial structure and nutrients promote invasion of IncP-1 plasmids in bacterial populations

PubMed Central

Fox, Randal E; Zhong, Xue; Krone, Stephen M; Top, Eva M

2008-01-01

In spite of the importance of plasmids in bacterial adaptation, we have a poor understanding of their dynamics. It is not known if or how plasmids persist in and spread through (invade) a bacterial population when there is no selection for plasmid-encoded traits. Moreover, the differences in dynamics between spatially structured and mixed populations are poorly understood. Through a joint experimental/theoretical approach, we tested the hypothesis that self-transmissible IncP-1 plasmids can invade a bacterial population in the absence of selection when initially very rare, but only in spatially structured habitats and when nutrients are regularly replenished. Using protocols that differed in the degree of spatial structure and nutrient levels, the invasiveness of plasmid pB10 in Escherichia coli was monitored during at least 15 days, with an initial fraction of plasmid-bearing (p+) cells as low as 10−7. To further explore the mechanisms underlying plasmid dynamics, we developed a spatially explicit mathematical model. When cells were grown on filters and transferred to fresh medium daily, the p+ fraction increased to 13%, whereas almost complete invasion occurred when the population structure was disturbed daily. The plasmid was unable to invade in liquid. When carbon source levels were lower or not replenished, plasmid invasion was hampered. Simulations of the mathematical model closely matched the experimental results and produced estimates of the effects of alternative experimental parameters. This allowed us to isolate the likely mechanisms most responsible for the observations. In conclusion, spatial structure and nutrient availability can be key determinants in the invasiveness of plasmids. PMID:18528415

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale ( Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree ( Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale (Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions.

PubMed

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree (Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Long-term genetic monitoring of a riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae]: Direct anthropogenic impact versus climate change effects.

PubMed

Herzog, Rebecca; Hadrys, Heike

2017-01-01

Modern conservationists call for long term genetic monitoring datasets to evaluate and understand the impact of human activities on natural ecosystems and species on a global but also local scale. However, long-term monitoring datasets are still rare but in high demand to correctly identify, evaluate and respond to environmental changes. In the presented study, a population of the riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae), was monitored over a time period from 1989 to 2013. Study site was an artificial irrigation ditch in one of the last European stone steppes and "nature heritage", the Crau in Southern France. This artificial riverine habitat has an unusual high diversity of odonate species, prominent indicators for evaluating freshwater habitats. A clearing of the canal and destruction of the bank vegetation in 1996 was assumed to have great negative impact on the odonate larval and adult populations. Two mitochondrial markers (CO1 & ND1) and a panel of nuclear microsatellite loci were used to assess the genetic diversity. Over time they revealed a dramatic decline in diversity parameters between the years 2004 and 2007, however not between 1996 and 1997. From 2007 onwards the population shows a stabilizing trend but has not reached the amount of genetic variation found at the beginning of this survey. This decline cannot be referred to the clearing of the canal or any other direct anthropogenic impact. Instead, it is most likely that the populations' decay was due to by extreme weather conditions during the specific years. A severe drought was recorded for the summer months of these years, leading to reduced water levels in the canal causing also other water parameters to change, and therefore impacting temperature sensitive riverine habitat specialists like the O. coerulescens in a significant way. The data provide important insights into population genetic dynamics and metrics not always congruent with traditional monitoring data (e.g. abundance); a fact that should be regarded with caution when management plans for developed landscapes are designed.

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

2005-01-01

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Spatial and temporal Brook Trout density dynamics: Implications for conservation, management, and monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Jefferson T. Deweber,; Jason Detar,; Kristine, David; John A. Sweka,

2014-01-01

Many potential stressors to aquatic environments operate over large spatial scales, prompting the need to assess and monitor both site-specific and regional dynamics of fish populations. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability in density and capture probability of age-1 and older Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis from three-pass removal data collected at 291 sites over a 37-year time period (1975–2011) in Pennsylvania streams. There was high between-year variability in density, with annual posterior means ranging from 2.1 to 10.2 fish/100 m2; however, there was no significant long-term linear trend. Brook Trout density was positively correlated with elevation and negatively correlated with percent developed land use in the network catchment. Probability of capture did not vary substantially across sites or years but was negatively correlated with mean stream width. Because of the low spatiotemporal variation in capture probability and a strong correlation between first-pass CPUE (catch/min) and three-pass removal density estimates, the use of an abundance index based on first-pass CPUE could represent a cost-effective alternative to conducting multiple-pass removal sampling for some Brook Trout monitoring and assessment objectives. Single-pass indices may be particularly relevant for monitoring objectives that do not require precise site-specific estimates, such as regional monitoring programs that are designed to detect long-term linear trends in density.

Monitoring microbial metabolites using an inductively coupled resonance circuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnaushenko, Daniil; Baraban, Larysa; Ye, Dan; Uguz, Ilke; Mendes, Rafael G.; Rümmeli, Mark H.; de Visser, J. Arjan G. M.; Schmidt, Oliver G.; Cuniberti, Gianaurelio; Makarov, Denys

2015-08-01

We present a new approach to monitor microbial population dynamics in emulsion droplets via changes in metabolite composition, using an inductively coupled LC resonance circuit. The signal measured by such resonance detector provides information on the magnetic field interaction with the bacterial culture, which is complementary to the information accessible by other detection means, based on electric field interaction, i.e. capacitive or resistive, as well as optical techniques. Several charge-related factors, including pH and ammonia concentrations, were identified as possible contributors to the characteristic of resonance detector profile. The setup enables probing the ionic byproducts of microbial metabolic activity at later stages of cell growth, where conventional optical detection methods have no discriminating power.

Classical Accreting Pulsars with NICER

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson-Hodge, Colleen A.

2014-01-01

Soft excesses are very common center dot Lx > 1038 erg/s - reprocessing by optically thick material at the inner edge of the accretion disk center dot Lx < 1036 erg/s - photoionized or collisionally heated diffuse gas or thermal emission from the NS surface center dot Lx 1037 erg/s - either or both types of emission center dot NICER observations of soft excesses in bright X-ray pulsars combined with reflection modeling will constrain the ionization state, metalicity and dynamics of the inner edge of the magnetically truncated accretion disk Reflection models of an accretion disk for a hard power law - Strong soft excess below 3 keV from hot X-ray heated disk - For weakly ionized case: strong recombination lines - Are we seeing changes in the disk ionization in 4U1626-26? 13 years of weekly monitoring with RXTE PCA center dot Revealed an unexpectedly large population of Be/X-ray binaries compared to the Milky Way center dot Plotted luminosities are typical of "normal" outbursts (once per orbit) center dot The SMC provides an excellent opportunity to study a homogenous population of HMXBs with low interstellar absorption for accretion disk studies. Monitoring with NICER will enable studies of accretion disk physics in X-ray pulsars center dot The SMC provides a potential homogeneous low-absorption population for this study center dot NICER monitoring and TOO observations will also provide measurements of spinfrequencies, QPOs, pulsed fluxes, and energy spectra.

Monitoring Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) with baited bottom board traps: occurrence and seasonal abundance in honey bee colonies in Kenya.

PubMed

Torto, Baldwyn; Fombong, Ayuka T; Arbogast, Richard T; Teal, Peter E A

2010-12-01

The population dynamics of the honey bee pest Aethina tumida Murray (small hive beetle) have been studied in the United States with flight and Langstroth hive bottom board traps baited with pollen dough inoculated with a yeast Kodamaea ohmeri associated with the beetle. However, little is known about the population dynamics of the beetle in its native host range. Similarly baited Langstroth hive bottom board traps were used to monitor the occurrence and seasonal abundance of the beetle in honey bee colonies at two beekeeping locations in Kenya. Trap captures indicated that the beetle was present in honey bee colonies in low numbers all year round, but it was most abundant during the rainy season, with over 80% trapped during this period. The survival of larvae was tested in field releases under dry and wet soil conditions, and predators of larvae were identified. The actvity and survival of the beetle were strongly influenced by a combination of abiotic and biotic factors. Larval survival was higher during wet (28%) than dry (1.1%) conditions, with pupation occurring mostly at 0-15 cm and 11-20 cm, respectively, beneath the surface soil during these periods. The ant Pheidole megacephala was identified as a key predator of larvae at this site, and more active during the dry than wet seasons. These observations imply that intensive trapping during the rainy season could reduce the population of beetles infesting hives in subsequent seasons especially in places where the beetle is a serious pest. © 2010 Entomological Society of America

The Role of Clonal Interference in the Evolutionary Dynamics of Plasmid-Host Adaptation

PubMed Central

Hughes, Julie M.; Lohman, Brian K.; Deckert, Gail E.; Nichols, Eric P.; Settles, Matt; Abdo, Zaid; Top, Eva M.

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT Promiscuous plasmids replicate in a wide range of bacteria and therefore play a key role in the dissemination of various host-beneficial traits, including antibiotic resistance. Despite the medical relevance, little is known about the evolutionary dynamics through which drug resistance plasmids adapt to new hosts and thereby persist in the absence of antibiotics. We previously showed that the incompatibility group P-1 (IncP-1) minireplicon pMS0506 drastically improved its stability in novel host Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 after 1,000 generations under antibiotic selection for the plasmid. The only mutations found were those affecting the N terminus of the plasmid replication initiation protein TrfA1. Our aim in this study was to gain insight into the dynamics of plasmid evolution. Changes in stability and genotype frequencies of pMS0506 were monitored in evolving populations of MR-1 (pMS0506). Genotypes were determined by sequencing trfA1 amplicons from individual clones and by 454 pyrosequencing of whole plasmids from entire populations. Stability of pMS0506 drastically improved by generation 200. Many evolved plasmid genotypes with point mutations as well as in-frame and frameshift deletions and duplications in trfA1 were observed in all lineages with both sequencing methods. Strikingly, multiple genotypes were simultaneously present at high frequencies (>10%) in each population. Their relative abundances changed over time, but after 1,000 generations only one or two genotypes dominated the populations. This suggests that hosts with different plasmid genotypes were competing with each other, thus affecting the evolutionary trajectory. Plasmids can thus rapidly improve their stability, and clonal interference plays a significant role in plasmid-host adaptation dynamics. PMID:22761390

Multiscale approach to pest insect monitoring: random walks, pattern formation, synchronization, and networks.

PubMed

Petrovskii, Sergei; Petrovskaya, Natalia; Bearup, Daniel

2014-09-01

Pest insects pose a significant threat to food production worldwide resulting in annual losses worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Pest control attempts to prevent pest outbreaks that could otherwise destroy a sward. It is good practice in integrated pest management to recommend control actions (usually pesticides application) only when the pest density exceeds a certain threshold. Accurate estimation of pest population density in ecosystems, especially in agro-ecosystems, is therefore very important, and this is the overall goal of the pest insect monitoring. However, this is a complex and challenging task; providing accurate information about pest abundance is hardly possible without taking into account the complexity of ecosystems' dynamics, in particular, the existence of multiple scales. In the case of pest insects, monitoring has three different spatial scales, each of them having their own scale-specific goal and their own approaches to data collection and interpretation. In this paper, we review recent progress in mathematical models and methods applied at each of these scales and show how it helps to improve the accuracy and robustness of pest population density estimation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem restoration on the California Channel Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halvorson, W.L.

2004-01-01

Restoration of natural habitat has become increasingly important over the last three decades in the United States, first as mitigation for development (especially in wetlands), and more recently in natural areas. This latter restoration has come about as land managing agencies have seen the need to reverse the impact of past land uses and agencies like the National Park Service have taken on the responsibility for less-than-pristine lands. Restorations have typically been carried out with little prior study and with no follow-up monitoring. On the Channel Islands, the need for restoration is great, but the desire is to base this restoration on sound ecological understanding. By conducting surveys, implementing long-term research and monitoring, and by conducting population and community dynamics research, the necessary data is obtained to arrive at such an understanding. Once management actions have been taken to effect restoration, monitoring is used to determine the success of those actions. The intention is to gain enough of an understanding of the islands' ecosystems that we can manage to restore, not just populations of native plants and animals, but also the processes of a naturally functioning ecosystem. ?? International Scientific Publications, New Delhi.

Comparison of the performance of the activPAL Professional physical activity logger to a discrete accelerometer-based activity monitor.

PubMed

Godfrey, A; Culhane, K M; Lyons, G M

2007-10-01

The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the 'activPAL Professional' physical activity logger by comparing its output to that of a proven discrete accelerometer-based activity monitor during extended measurements on healthy subjects while performing activities of daily living (ADL). Ten healthy adults, with unrestricted mobility, wore both the activPAL and the discrete dual accelerometer (Analog Devices ADXL202)-based activity monitor that recorded in synchronization with each other. The accelerometer derived data were then compared to that generated by the activPAL and a complete statistical and error analysis was performed using a Matlab program. This program determined trunk and thigh inclination angles to distinguish between sitting/lying, standing and stepping for the discrete accelerometer device and amount of time spent on each activity. Analysis was performed on a second-by-second basis and then categorized at 15s intervals in direct comparison with the activPAL generated data. Of the total time monitored (approximately 60 h) the detection accuracies for static and dynamic activities were approximately 98%. In a population of healthy adults, the data obtained from the activPAL Professional physical activity logger for both static and dynamic activities showed a close match to a proven discrete accelerometer data with an offset of approximately 2% between the two systems.

Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

PubMed

Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M

2016-09-01

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

Momentum space view of the ultrafast dynamics of surface photocurrents on topological insulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, K.; Reimann, J.; Güdde, J.; Höfer, U.

2017-02-01

The Dirac-cone surface states of topological insulators are characterized by a chiral spin texture in k-space with the electron spin locked to its parallel momentum. Mid-infrared pump pulses can induce spin-polarized photocurrents in such a topological surface state by optical transitions between the occupied and unoccupied part of the Dirac cone. We monitor the ultrafast dynamics of the corresponding asymmetric electron population in momentum space directly by time- and angle-resolved two-photon photoemission (2PPE). The elastic scattering times of 2.5 ps deduced for Sb2Te3 corresponds to a mean-fee path of 0.75 μm in real space.

Longitudinal density monitor for the LHC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeff, A.; Andersen, M.; Boccardi, A.; Bozyigit, S.; Bravin, E.; Lefevre, T.; Rabiller, A.; Roncarolo, F.; Welsch, C. P.; Fisher, A. S.

2012-03-01

The longitudinal density monitor (LDM) is primarily intended for the measurement of the particle population in nominally empty rf buckets. These so-called satellite or ghost bunches can cause problems for machine protection as well as influencing the luminosity calibration of the LHC. The high dynamic range of the system allows measurement of ghost bunches with as little as 0.01% of the main bunch population at the same time as characterization of the main bunches. The LDM is a single-photon counting system using visible synchrotron light. The photon detector is a silicon avalanche photodiode operated in Geiger mode, which allows the longitudinal distribution of the LHC beams to be measured with a resolution of 90 ps. Results from the LDM are presented, including a proposed method for constructing a 3-dimensional beam density map by scanning the LDM sensor in the transverse plane. In addition, we present a scheme to improve the sensitivity of the system by using an optical switching technique.

Bacterial population dynamics during uranium reduction andre-oxidation: Application of a novel high density oligonucleotidemicroarray approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brodie, Eoin L.; DeSantis, Todd Z.; Joyner, Dominique C.

2006-01-30

Reduction of soluble uranium U(VI) to less-soluble uraniumU(IV) is a promising approach to minimize migration from contaminatedaquifers. It is generally assumed that, under constant reducingconditions, U(IV) is stable and immobile; however, in a previous study,we documented reoxidation of U(IV) under continuous reducing conditions(Wan et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. 2005, 39:6162 6169). To determine ifchanges in microbial community composition were a factor in U(IV)reoxidation, we employed a high-density phylogenetic DNA microarray (16Smicroarray) containing 500,000 probes to monitor changes in bacterialpopulations during this remediation process. Comparison of the 16Smicroarray with clone libraries demonstrated successful detection andclassification of most clone groups. Analysis ofmore » the most dynamic groupsof 16S rRNA gene amplicons detected by the 16S microarray identified fiveclusters of bacterial subfamilies responding in a similar manner. Thisapproach demonstrated that amplicons of known metal-reducing bacteriasuch as Geothrix fermentans (confirmed by quantitative PCR) and thosewithin the Geobacteraceae were abundant during U(VI) reduction and didnot decline during the U(IV) reoxidation phase. Significantly, it appearsthat the observed reoxidation of uranium under reducing conditionsoccurred despite elevated microbial activity and the consistent presenceof metal-reducing bacteria. High-density phylogenetic microarraysconstitute a powerful tool, enabling the detection and monitoring of asubstantial portion of the microbial population in a routine, accurate,and reproducible manner.« less

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

PubMed Central

Keedy, Daniel A; Kenner, Lillian R; Warkentin, Matthew; Woldeyes, Rahel A; Hopkins, Jesse B; Thompson, Michael C; Brewster, Aaron S; Van Benschoten, Andrew H; Baxter, Elizabeth L; Uervirojnangkoorn, Monarin; McPhillips, Scott E; Song, Jinhu; Alonso-Mori, Roberto; Holton, James M; Weis, William I; Brunger, Axel T; Soltis, S Michael; Lemke, Henrik; Gonzalez, Ana; Sauter, Nicholas K; Cohen, Aina E; van den Bedem, Henry; Thorne, Robert E; Fraser, James S

2015-01-01

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences of these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Together, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07574.001 PMID:26422513

Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control

PubMed Central

Stewart Ibarra, Anna M.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Beltrán, Efrain; Mejía, Raúl; Silva, Mercy; Muñoz, Ángel

2013-01-01

Background Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. Methods/Principal findings We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. Conclusions These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish. PMID:24324542

Modeling the Dynamics of High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer Progression for Transvaginal Ultrasound-Based Screening and Early Detection

PubMed Central

Lee, Jung-Min; Levy, Doron

2016-01-01

High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) represents the majority of ovarian cancers and accounts for the largest proportion of deaths from the disease. A timely detection of low volume HGSOC should be the goal of any screening studies. However, numerous transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) detection-based population studies aimed at detecting low-volume disease have not yielded reduced mortality rates. A quantitative invalidation of TVU as an effective HGSOC screening strategy is a necessary next step. Herein, we propose a mathematical model for a quantitative explanation on the reported failure of TVU-based screening to improve HGSOC low-volume detectability and overall survival.We develop a novel in silico mathematical assessment of the efficacy of a unimodal TVU monitoring regimen as a strategy aimed at detecting low-volume HGSOC in cancer-positive cases, defined as cases for which the inception of the first malignant cell has already occurred. Our findings show that the median window of opportunity interval length for TVU monitoring and HGSOC detection is approximately 1.76 years. This does not translate into reduced mortality levels or improved detection accuracy in an in silico cohort across multiple TVU monitoring frequencies or detection sensitivities. We demonstrate that even a semiannual, unimodal TVU monitoring protocol is expected to miss detectable HGSOC. Lastly, we find that circa 50% of the simulated HGSOC growth curves never reach the baseline detectability threshold, and that on average, 5–7 infrequent, rate-limiting stochastic changes in the growth parameters are associated with reaching HGSOC detectability and mortality thresholds respectively. Focusing on a malignancy poorly studied in the mathematical oncology community, our model captures the dynamic, temporal evolution of HGSOC progression. Our mathematical model is consistent with recent case reports and prospective TVU screening population studies, and provides support to the empirical recommendation against frequent HGSOC screening. PMID:27257824

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Chris; Saracco, James; Holmgren, Mandy; Wilkerson, Robert; Siegel, Rodney; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Ransom, Jason I.; Happe, Patricia J.; Boetsch, John; Huff, Mark

2017-01-01

Monitoring species in National Parks facilitates inference regarding effects of climate change on population dynamics because parks are relatively unaffected by other forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Even at early points in a monitoring program, identifying climate covariates of population density can suggest vulnerabilities to future change. Monitoring landbird populations in parks during the breeding season brings the added benefit of allowing a comparative approach to inference across a large suite of species with diverse requirements. For example, comparing resident and migratory species that vary in exposure to non-park habitats can reveal the relative importance of park effects, such as those related to local climate. We monitored landbirds using breeding-season point-count data collected during 2005–2014 in three wilderness areas of the Pacific Northwest (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks). For 39 species, we estimated recent trends in population density while accounting for individual detection probability using Bayesian hierarchical N-mixture models. Our analyses integrated several recent developments in N-mixture modeling, incorporating interval and distance sampling to estimate distinct components of detection probability while also accommodating count intervals of varying duration, annual variation in the length and number of point-count transects, spatial autocorrelation, random effects, and covariates of detection and density. As covariates of density, we considered metrics of precipitation and temperature hypothesized to affect breeding success. We also considered effects of park and elevational stratum on trend. Regardless of model structure, we estimated stable or increasing densities during 2005–2014 for most populations. Mean trends across species were positive for migrants in every park and for residents in one park. A recent snowfall deficit in this region might have contributed to the positive trend, because population density varied inversely with precipitation-as-snow for both migrants and residents. Densities varied directly but much more weakly with mean spring temperature. Our approach exemplifies an analytical framework for estimating trends from point-count data, and for assessing the role of climatic and other spatiotemporal variables in driving those trends. Understanding population trends and the factors that drive them is critical for adaptive management and resource stewardship in the context of climate change.

Antibiotics in Feed Induce Prophages in Swine Fecal Microbiomes

PubMed Central

Allen, Heather K.; Looft, Torey; Bayles, Darrell O.; Humphrey, Samuel; Levine, Uri Y.; Alt, David; Stanton, Thaddeus B.

2011-01-01

ABSTRACT Antibiotics are a cost-effective tool for improving feed efficiency and preventing disease in agricultural animals, but the full scope of their collateral effects is not understood. Antibiotics have been shown to mediate gene transfer by inducing prophages in certain bacterial strains; therefore, one collateral effect could be prophage induction in the gut microbiome at large. Here we used metagenomics to evaluate the effect of two antibiotics in feed (carbadox and ASP250 [chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, and penicillin]) on swine intestinal phage metagenomes (viromes). We also monitored the bacterial communities using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. ASP250, but not carbadox, caused significant population shifts in both the phage and bacterial communities. Antibiotic resistance genes, such as multidrug resistance efflux pumps, were identified in the viromes, but in-feed antibiotics caused no significant changes in their abundance. The abundance of phage integrase-encoding genes was significantly increased in the viromes of medicated swine over that in the viromes of nonmedicated swine, demonstrating the induction of prophages with antibiotic treatment. Phage-bacterium population dynamics were also examined. We observed a decrease in the relative abundance of Streptococcus bacteria (prey) when Streptococcus phages (predators) were abundant, supporting the “kill-the-winner” ecological model of population dynamics in the swine fecal microbiome. The data show that gut ecosystem dynamics are influenced by phages and that prophage induction is a collateral effect of in-feed antibiotics. PMID:22128350

Single-cell resolution of intracellular T cell Ca2+ dynamics in response to frequency-based H2O2 stimulation.

PubMed

Kniss-James, Ariel S; Rivet, Catherine A; Chingozha, Loice; Lu, Hang; Kemp, Melissa L

2017-03-01

Adaptive immune cells, such as T cells, integrate information from their extracellular environment through complex signaling networks with exquisite sensitivity in order to direct decisions on proliferation, apoptosis, and cytokine production. These signaling networks are reliant on the interplay between finely tuned secondary messengers, such as Ca 2+ and H 2 O 2 . Frequency response analysis, originally developed in control engineering, is a tool used for discerning complex networks. This analytical technique has been shown to be useful for understanding biological systems and facilitates identification of the dominant behaviour of the system. We probed intracellular Ca 2+ dynamics in the frequency domain to investigate the complex relationship between two second messenger signaling molecules, H 2 O 2 and Ca 2+ , during T cell activation with single cell resolution. Single-cell analysis provides a unique platform for interrogating and monitoring cellular processes of interest. We utilized a previously developed microfluidic device to monitor individual T cells through time while applying a dynamic input to reveal a natural frequency of the system at approximately 2.78 mHz stimulation. Although our network was much larger with more unknown connections than previous applications, we are able to derive features from our data, observe forced oscillations associated with specific amplitudes and frequencies of stimuli, and arrive at conclusions about potential transfer function fits as well as the underlying population dynamics.

In Vivo Biochemistry: Single-Cell Dynamics of Cyclic Di-GMP in Escherichia coli in Response to Zinc Overload.

PubMed

Yeo, Jongchan; Dippel, Andrew B; Wang, Xin C; Hammond, Ming C

2018-01-09

Intracellular signaling enzymes drive critical changes in cellular physiology and gene expression, but their endogenous activities in vivo remain highly challenging to study in real time and for individual cells. Here we show that flow cytometry can be performed in complex media to monitor single-cell population distributions and dynamics of cyclic di-GMP signaling, which controls the bacterial colonization program. These in vivo biochemistry experiments are enabled by our second-generation RNA-based fluorescent (RBF) biosensors, which exhibit high fluorescence turn-on in response to cyclic di-GMP. Specifically, we demonstrate that intracellular levels of cyclic di-GMP in Escherichia coli are repressed with excess zinc, but not with other divalent metals. Furthermore, in both flow cytometry and fluorescence microscopy setups, we monitor the dynamic increase in cellular cyclic di-GMP levels upon zinc depletion and show that this response is due to de-repression of the endogenous diguanylate cyclase DgcZ. In the presence of zinc, cells exhibit enhanced cell motility and increased sensitivity to antibiotics due to inhibited biofilm formation. Taken together, these results showcase the application of RBF biosensors in visualizing single-cell dynamic changes in cyclic di-GMP signaling in direct response to environmental cues such as zinc and highlight our ability to assess whether observed phenotypes are related to specific signaling enzymes and pathways.

Environmental Monitoring and Surveillance of Rodents and Vectors for Francisella tularensis Following Outbreaks of Human Tularemia in Georgia.

PubMed

Elashvili, Eka; Kracalik, Ian; Burjanadze, Irma; Datukishvili, Sophio; Chanturia, Gvantsa; Tsertsvadze, Nikoloz; Beridze, Levan; Shavishvili, Merab; Dzneladze, Archil; Grdzelidze, Marina; Imnadze, Paata; Pearson, Andrew; Blackburn, Jason K

2015-10-01

Tularemia is a re-emerging bacterial zoonosis, broadly distributed across the northern hemisphere. In Georgia, there is a history of human tularemia outbreaks dating back to the 1940s. In response to outbreaks, health officials initiated long-term field surveillance and environmental monitoring. The objective of our study was to obtain information from 57 years of field surveys to identify species that play a role in the occurrence Francisella tularensis subsp. holarctica in the environment in Georgia. We collected historical data on human outbreaks, field collections, population dynamics of the common vole (Microtus arvalis), and conducted surveys on small mammals and vectors from five regions in Georgia during 1956-2012. Bacterial isolation was conducted using standard culturing techniques, and isolation rates for species were obtained for a subset of years. We used a Spearman rank correlation to test for associations between the density of the common vole and isolation rates. From 1956 through 2012, there were four recorded outbreaks of human tularemia (362 cases). A total of 465 bacterial isolates of F. tularensis subsp. holarctica were obtained from 27 species and environmental samples. The number of isolations was highest in the common vole (M. arvalis; 149 isolates; 32%) and Dermacentor marginatus ticks (132 isolates; 28%); isolation rates ranged between 0-0.91% and 0-0.47%, respectively. Population dynamics of the common vole were not correlated with the isolation rate. Given the history of tularemia re-emergence in Georgia, continued field surveys and environmental monitoring may provide an early indication of outbreak risk in humans. In conclusion, our findings provide evidence of long-standing foci of F. tularensis subsp. holarctica that are likely maintained by the common vole-tick cycle.

Exploring reservoir dynamics: a case study of rabies in the Serengeti ecosystem

PubMed Central

Lembo, Tiziana; Hampson, Katie; Haydon, Daniel T.; Craft, Meggan; Dobson, Andy; Dushoff, Jonathan; Ernest, Eblate; Hoare, Richard; Kaare, Magai; Mlengeya, Titus; Mentzel, Christine; Cleaveland, Sarah

2012-01-01

Summary Knowledge of infection reservoir dynamics is critical for effective disease control, but identifying reservoirs of multi-host pathogens is challenging. Here, we synthesize several lines of evidence to investigate rabies reservoirs in complex carnivore communities of the Serengeti ecological region in northwest Tanzania, where the disease has been confirmed in 12 carnivore species.Long-term monitoring data suggest that rabies persists in high-density domestic dog Canis familiaris populations (> 11 dogs km−2) and occurs less frequently in lower-density (< 5 dogs km−2) populations and only sporadically in wild carnivores.Genetic data show that a single rabies virus variant belonging to the group of southern Africa canid-associated viruses (Africa 1b) circulates among a range of species, with no evidence of species-specific virus–host associations.Within-species transmission was more frequently inferred from high-resolution epidemiological data than between-species transmission. Incidence patterns indicate that spill-over of rabies from domestic dog populations sometimes initiates short-lived chains of transmission in other carnivores.Synthesis and applications. The balance of evidence suggests that the reservoir of rabies in the Serengeti ecosystem is a complex multi-host community where domestic dogs are the only population essential for persistence, although other carnivores contribute to the reservoir as non-maintenance populations. Control programmes that target domestic dog populations should therefore have the greatest impact on reducing the risk of infection in all other species including humans, livestock and endangered wildlife populations, but transmission in other species may increase the level of vaccination coverage in domestic dog populations necessary to eliminate rabies. PMID:22427710

Cameras on the NEPTUNE Canada seafloor observatory: Towards monitoring hydrothermal vent ecosystem dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robert, K.; Matabos, M.; Sarrazin, J.; Sarradin, P.; Lee, R. W.; Juniper, K.

2010-12-01

Hydrothermal vent environments are among the most dynamic benthic habitats in the ocean. The relative roles of physical and biological factors in shaping vent community structure remain unclear. Undersea cabled observatories offer the power and bandwidth required for high-resolution, time-series study of the dynamics of vent communities and the physico-chemical forces that influence them. The NEPTUNE Canada cabled instrument array at the Endeavour hydrothermal vents provides a unique laboratory for researchers to conduct long-term, integrated studies of hydrothermal vent ecosystem dynamics in relation to environmental variability. Beginning in September-October 2010, NEPTUNE Canada (NC) will be deploying a multi-disciplinary suite of instruments on the Endeavour Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Two camera and sensor systems will be used to study ecosystem dynamics in relation to hydrothermal discharge. These studies will make use of new experimental protocols for time-series observations that we have been developing since 2008 at other observatory sites connected to the VENUS and NC networks. These protocols include sampling design, camera calibration (i.e. structure, position, light, settings) and image analysis methodologies (see communication by Aron et al.). The camera systems to be deployed in the Main Endeavour vent field include a Sidus high definition video camera (2010) and the TEMPO-mini system (2011), designed by IFREMER (France). Real-time data from three sensors (O2, dissolved Fe, temperature) integrated with the TEMPO-mini system will enhance interpretation of imagery. For the first year of observations, a suite of internally recording temperature probes will be strategically placed in the field of view of the Sidus camera. These installations aim at monitoring variations in vent community structure and dynamics (species composition and abundances, interactions within and among species) in response to changes in environmental conditions at different temporal scales. High-resolution time-series studies also provide a mean of studying population dynamics, biological rhythms, organism growth and faunal succession. In addition to programmed time-series monitoring, the NC infrastructure will also permit manual and automated modification of observational protocols in response to natural events. This will enhance our ability to document potentially critical but short-lived environmental forces affecting vent communities.

Non-Crop Host Sampling Yields Insights into Small-Scale Population Dynamics of Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura)

PubMed Central

Loeb, Gregory M.

2018-01-01

Invasive, polyphagous crop pests subsist on a number of crop and non-crop resources. While knowing the full range of host species is important, a seasonal investigation into the use of non-crop plants adjacent to cropping systems provide key insights into some of the factors determining local population dynamics. This study investigated the infestation of non-crop plants by the invasive Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura), a pest of numerous economically important stone and small fruit crops, by sampling fruit-producing non-crop hosts adjacent to commercial plantings weekly from June through November in central New York over a two-year period. We found D. suzukii infestation rates (number of flies emerged/kg fruit) peaked mid-August through early September, with Rubus allegheniensis Porter and Lonicera morrowii Asa Gray showing the highest average infestation in both years. Interannual infestation patterns were similar despite a lower number of adults caught in monitoring traps the second year, suggesting D. suzukii host use may be density independent. PMID:29301358

Visualization and tracking of tumour extracellular vesicle delivery and RNA translation using multiplexed reporters

PubMed Central

Lai, Charles P.; Kim, Edward Y.; Badr, Christian E.; Weissleder, Ralph; Mempel, Thorsten R.; Tannous, Bakhos A.; Breakefield, Xandra O.

2015-01-01

Accurate spatiotemporal assessment of extracellular vesicle (EV) delivery and cargo RNA translation requires specific and robust live-cell imaging technologies. Here we engineer optical reporters to label multiple EV populations for visualization and tracking of tumour EV release, uptake and exchange between cell populations both in culture and in vivo. Enhanced green fluorescence protein (EGFP) and tandem dimer Tomato (tdTomato) were fused at NH2-termini with a palmitoylation signal (PalmGFP, PalmtdTomato) for EV membrane labelling. To monitor EV-RNA cargo, transcripts encoding PalmtdTomato were tagged with MS2 RNA binding sequences and detected by co-expression of bacteriophage MS2 coat protein fused with EGFP. By multiplexing fluorescent and bioluminescent EV membrane reporters, we reveal the rapid dynamics of both EV uptake and translation of EV-delivered cargo mRNAs in cancer cells that occurred within 1-hour post-horizontal transfer between cells. These studies confirm that EV-mediated communication is dynamic and multidirectional between cells with delivery of functional mRNA. PMID:25967391

Response of Periphyton to Seasonal Changes in Nutrient Concentrations in Central Illinois Agricultural Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkham, K. G.; Perry, W. L.

2005-05-01

Headwater streams in central Illinois have been dredged and channelized to drain surrounding agricultural fields and has led to extensive erosion and eutrophication. Restoration of these systems through farmer implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs) may be one solution. Examination of algal population dynamics may be useful in assessment of BMP effectiveness. We have monitored two small headwater streams, Bray Creek and Frog Alley, for a suite of physicochemical parameters focusing on dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, and phosphorus for three years. Nutrient concentrations suggested potential nutrient limitation by nitrates during late summer and phosphorus limitation in early summer. To determine seasonal algal dynamics with seasonally varying nutrient limitation in agricultural headwater streams, we used nutrient diffusing substrata (NDS). NDS with agar (controls) or amended with either nitrogen, phosphorus, or both were deployed for 21-24 days in both streams each month for a year. Slight nutrient limitation was observed in Bray Creek during August and November while phosphorus was limiting in September (P<0.05). We suggest agricultural streams are more dynamic than previously thought and algal populations may be seasonally nutrient limited and with consequent effects on dissolved oxygen concentrations.

Urban Expansion: a Geo-Spatial Approach for Temporal Monitoring of Loss of Agricultural Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumari, N. S.; Shao, Z.; Huang, M.; Sanga, C. A.; Van Genderen, J. L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents some preliminary results from research on monitoring the urban growth of Shenzhen in China. Agriculture is still the pillar of national economies in many countries including China. Thus, agriculture contributes to population growth. Population growth follows either exponential or logistic growth models. These models can be examined using a time-series of geospatial data, mainly historical earth observation imagery from satellites such as LANDSAT. Such multitemporal data may provide insights into settlement analysis as well as on population dynamics and hence, quantify the loss of agricultural land. In this study, LANDSAT data of ten dates, at approximately five yearly intervals from 1977 to 2017 were used. The remote sensing techniques used for analysis of data for 40 years were image selection, then followed by geometric and radiometric corrections and mosaicking. Also, classification, remote sensing image fusion, and change detection methods were used. This research extracted the information on the amount, direction, and speed of urbanization, and hence, the number of hectares of agricultural land lost due to urban expansion. Several specific elements were used in the descriptive model of landscape changes and population dynamics of the city of Shenzhen in China. These elements are: i) quantify the urban changes, from a small town (37.000 people in the early 1970's) to the megalopolis of around 20 million habitants today. ii) Examining the rate of urban extension on the loss of agricultural landscape and population growth. iii) The loss of food production was analysed against the economic growth in the region. iv) The aspects of loss of agricultural land, area of built-up urban land, and increase in population are studied quantitatively, by the temporal analysis of earth observation geospatial data. The experimental results from this study show that the proposed method is effective in determining loss of agricultural land in any city due to urbanization. It can be used by town planner and other stakeholders such as land surveyors and agriculture experts to mitigate the mushrooming of unplanned settlements in many town / villages and loss of land for agriculture which might cause problems in food security.

Monitoring dynamic loads on wind tunnel force balances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferris, Alice T.; White, William C.

1989-01-01

Two devices have been developed at NASA Langley to monitor the dynamic loads incurred during wind-tunnel testing. The Balance Dynamic Display Unit (BDDU), displays and monitors the combined static and dynamic forces and moments in the orthogonal axes. The Balance Critical Point Analyzer scales and sums each normalized signal from the BDDU to obtain combined dynamic and static signals that represent the dynamic loads at predefined high-stress points. The display of each instrument is a multiplex of six analog signals in a way that each channel is displayed sequentially as one-sixth of the horizontal axis on a single oscilloscope trace. Thus this display format permits the operator to quickly and easily monitor the combined static and dynamic level of up to six channels at the same time.

Dynamic conservation of forest genetic resources in 33 European countries.

PubMed

Lefèvre, François; Koskela, Jarkko; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C; Schüler, Silvio; Bozzano, Michele; Alizoti, Paraskevi; Bakys, Remigijus; Baldwin, Cathleen; Ballian, Dalibor; Black-Samuelsson, Sanna; Bednarova, Dagmar; Bordács, Sándor; Collin, Eric; de Cuyper, Bart; de Vries, Sven M G; Eysteinsson, Thröstur; Frýdl, Josef; Haverkamp, Michaela; Ivankovic, Mladen; Konrad, Heino; Koziol, Czesław; Maaten, Tiit; Notivol Paino, Eduardo; Oztürk, Hikmet; Pandeva, Ivanova Denitsa; Parnuta, Gheorghe; Pilipovič, Andrej; Postolache, Dragos; Ryan, Cathal; Steffenrem, Arne; Varela, Maria Carolina; Vessella, Federico; Volosyanchuk, Roman T; Westergren, Marjana; Wolter, Frank; Yrjänä, Leena; Zariŋa, Inga

2013-04-01

Dynamic conservation of forest genetic resources (FGR) means maintaining the genetic diversity of trees within an evolutionary process and allowing generation turnover in the forest. We assessed the network of forests areas managed for the dynamic conservation of FGR (conservation units) across Europe (33 countries). On the basis of information available in the European Information System on FGR (EUFGIS Portal), species distribution maps, and environmental stratification of the continent, we developed ecogeographic indicators, a marginality index, and demographic indicators to assess and monitor forest conservation efforts. The pan-European network has 1967 conservation units, 2737 populations of target trees, and 86 species of target trees. We detected a poor coincidence between FGR conservation and other biodiversity conservation objectives within this network. We identified 2 complementary strategies: a species-oriented strategy in which national conservation networks are specifically designed for key target species and a site-oriented strategy in which multiple-target units include so-called secondary species conserved within a few sites. The network is highly unbalanced in terms of species representation, and 7 key target species are conserved in 60% of the conservation units. We performed specific gap analyses for 11 tree species, including assessment of ecogeographic, demographic, and genetic criteria. For each species, we identified gaps, particularly in the marginal parts of their distribution range, and found multiple redundant conservation units in other areas. The Mediterranean forests and to a lesser extent the boreal forests are underrepresented. Monitoring the conservation efficiency of each unit remains challenging; however, <2% of the conserved populations seem to be at risk of extinction. On the basis of our results, we recommend combining species-oriented and site-oriented strategies. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Dynamics of a low-density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement.

PubMed

Duangchantrasiri, Somphot; Umponjan, Mayuree; Simcharoen, Saksit; Pattanavibool, Anak; Chaiwattana, Soontorn; Maneerat, Sompoch; Kumar, N Samba; Jathanna, Devcharan; Srivathsa, Arjun; Karanth, K Ullas

2016-06-01

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture-recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624-1026 km(2) with 137-200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood-based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km(2) , abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture-recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82-90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low-density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Human Disturbance Influences Reproductive Success and Growth Rate in California Sea Lions (Zalophus californianus)

PubMed Central

French, Susannah S.; González-Suárez, Manuela; Young, Julie K.; Durham, Susan; Gerber, Leah R.

2011-01-01

The environment is currently undergoing changes at both global (e.g., climate change) and local (e.g., tourism, pollution, habitat modification) scales that have the capacity to affect the viability of animal and plant populations. Many of these changes, such as human disturbance, have an anthropogenic origin and therefore may be mitigated by management action. To do so requires an understanding of the impact of human activities and changing environmental conditions on population dynamics. We investigated the influence of human activity on important life history parameters (reproductive rate, and body condition, and growth rate of neonate pups) for California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Increased human presence was associated with lower reproductive rates, which translated into reduced long-term population growth rates and suggested that human activities are a disturbance that could lead to population declines. We also observed higher body growth rates in pups with increased exposure to humans. Increased growth rates in pups may reflect a density dependent response to declining reproductive rates (e.g., decreased competition for resources). Our results highlight the potentially complex changes in life history parameters that may result from human disturbance, and their implication for population dynamics. We recommend careful monitoring of human activities in the Gulf of California and emphasize the importance of management strategies that explicitly consider the potential impact of human activities such as ecotourism on vertebrate populations. PMID:21436887

Differences in sensitivity to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis among amphibian populations.

PubMed

Bradley, Paul W; Gervasi, Stephanie S; Hua, Jessica; Cothran, Rickey D; Relyea, Rick A; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

2015-10-01

Contributing to the worldwide biodiversity crisis are emerging infectious diseases, which can lead to extirpations and extinctions of hosts. For example, the infectious fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is associated with worldwide amphibian population declines and extinctions. Sensitivity to Bd varies with species, season, and life stage. However, there is little information on whether sensitivity to Bd differs among populations, which is essential for understanding Bd-infection dynamics and for formulating conservation strategies. We experimentally investigated intraspecific differences in host sensitivity to Bd across 10 populations of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) raised from eggs to metamorphosis. We exposed the post-metamorphic wood frogs to Bd and monitored survival for 30 days under controlled laboratory conditions. Populations differed in overall survival and mortality rate. Infection load also differed among populations but was not correlated with population differences in risk of mortality. Such population-level variation in sensitivity to Bd may result in reservoir populations that may be a source for the transmission of Bd to other sensitive populations or species. Alternatively, remnant populations that are less sensitive to Bd could serve as sources for recolonization after epidemic events. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

French citizens monitoring ordinary birds provide tools for conservation and ecological sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent; Julliard, Romain; Couvet, Denis

2012-10-01

Volunteer-based standardized monitoring of birds has been widely implemented in Europe and North America. In France, a breeding bird survey is running since 1989 and offers keen birdwatchers to count spring birds annually during 5 min exactly on 10 fix points within a randomly selected square. The first goal of such breeding bird surveys is to measure temporal trends in order to detect possible species declines. Combining annual indices of species sharing ecological affinities or a protected/red list status further provides biodiversity indicators for policy makers. Because the sampling effort is similar among sites, and because the initial selection of monitored sites is random, the temporal trends can be considered representative of national trends, and spatial comparisons of the obtained metrics are possible. Species abundance, community richness but also community specialization and average trophic level can be estimated for each site and each year and further related to the wide range of habitat and landscape characteristics and to agricultural or forestry practices. The large number of sites allows overcoming the opposition between adaptive and passive monitoring, making such schemes fitted to adaptive monitoring. This provides opportunities to determine which type of management or practices favour biodiversity. The comparison of population fate or community dynamics across a wide range of climates and temperatures, e.g. from southern to northern Europe, revealed how European birds are already affected by climate change. Bird communities are shifting northwards, but at a slower rate than temperatures, while bird populations have larger growth rates away from their hot thermal limit. Finally, such large-scale long-term monitoring data on a complete taxonomic group (Aves) is original and offers the opportunity to compare different measures of biological diversity, such as taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity. Such a citizen science scheme is an efficient scientific tool (numerous papers published in international peer-reviewed journals) which is furthermore highly cost-effective, with a reduced permanent staff in a state insitution coordonating the network and analysing the data, while a similar survey conducted by state staff only would cost more than one million euros annually. The future development of bio-economic dynamic models for providing scenarios of sustainable farming and logging to maintain biodiversity will further highlight the necessity of such volunteer monitoring for policy makers and decision planning. Scientific and logistic partnerships could be proposed to help developing such a monitoring scheme in China.

Monitoring microbial metabolites using an inductively coupled resonance circuit

PubMed Central

Karnaushenko, Daniil; Baraban, Larysa; Ye, Dan; Uguz, Ilke; Mendes, Rafael G.; Rümmeli, Mark H.; de Visser, J. Arjan G. M.; Schmidt, Oliver G.; Cuniberti, Gianaurelio; Makarov, Denys

2015-01-01

We present a new approach to monitor microbial population dynamics in emulsion droplets via changes in metabolite composition, using an inductively coupled LC resonance circuit. The signal measured by such resonance detector provides information on the magnetic field interaction with the bacterial culture, which is complementary to the information accessible by other detection means, based on electric field interaction, i.e. capacitive or resistive, as well as optical techniques. Several charge-related factors, including pH and ammonia concentrations, were identified as possible contributors to the characteristic of resonance detector profile. The setup enables probing the ionic byproducts of microbial metabolic activity at later stages of cell growth, where conventional optical detection methods have no discriminating power. PMID:26264183

Preliminary investigations of the winter ecology of Long-billed Curlews in coastal Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodin, Marc C.; Skoruppa, Mary Kay; Edwardson, Jeremy W.; Austin, Jane E.

2012-01-01

Results from this 1-year pilot study yielded an intriguing combination of findings that warrant further investigation. Observations include reduced numbers of roosting birds along the Texas coast during dry conditions, highly dynamic use of nocturnal roost sites, use of widely divergent habitat types for foraging, low body mass of most captured birds, and apparent fidelity to general feeding areas. Future investigations of this eastern winter population of curlews would benefit from larger sample sizes and monitoring of individual birds.

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

2016-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern.

The Impact of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on a Wine Yeast Consortium in Natural and Inoculated Fermentations

PubMed Central

Bagheri, Bahareh; Bauer, Florian F.; Setati, Mathabatha E.

2017-01-01

Natural, also referred to as spontaneous wine fermentations, are carried out by the native microbiota of the grape juice, without inoculation of selected, industrially produced yeast or bacterial strains. Such fermentations are commonly initiated by non-Saccharomyces yeast species that numerically dominate the must. Community composition and numerical dominance of species vary significantly between individual musts, but Saccharomyces cerevisiae will in most cases dominate the late stages of the fermentation and complete the process. Nevertheless, non-Saccharomyces species contribute significantly, positively or negatively, to the character and quality of the final product. The contribution is species and strain dependent and will depend on each species or strain’s absolute and relative contribution to total metabolically active biomass, and will therefore, be a function of its relative fitness within the microbial ecosystem. However, the population dynamics of multispecies fermentations are not well understood. Consequently, the oenological potential of the microbiome in any given grape must, can currently not be evaluated or predicted. To better characterize the rules that govern the complex wine microbial ecosystem, a model yeast consortium comprising eight species commonly encountered in South African grape musts and an ARISA based method to monitor their dynamics were developed and validated. The dynamics of these species were evaluated in synthetic must in the presence or absence of S. cerevisiae using direct viable counts and ARISA. The data show that S. cerevisiae specifically suppresses certain species while appearing to favor the persistence of other species. Growth dynamics in Chenin blanc grape must fermentation was monitored only through viable counts. The interactions observed in the synthetic must, were upheld in the natural must fermentations, suggesting the broad applicability of the observed ecosystem dynamics. Importantly, the presence of indigenous yeast populations did not appear to affect the broad interaction patterns between the consortium species. The data show that the wine ecosystem is characterized by both mutually supportive and inhibitory species. The current study presents a first step in the development of a model to predict the oenological potential of any given wine mycobiome. PMID:29085347

The Impact of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on a Wine Yeast Consortium in Natural and Inoculated Fermentations.

PubMed

Bagheri, Bahareh; Bauer, Florian F; Setati, Mathabatha E

2017-01-01

Natural, also referred to as spontaneous wine fermentations, are carried out by the native microbiota of the grape juice, without inoculation of selected, industrially produced yeast or bacterial strains. Such fermentations are commonly initiated by non- Saccharomyces yeast species that numerically dominate the must. Community composition and numerical dominance of species vary significantly between individual musts, but Saccharomyces cerevisiae will in most cases dominate the late stages of the fermentation and complete the process. Nevertheless, non- Saccharomyces species contribute significantly, positively or negatively, to the character and quality of the final product. The contribution is species and strain dependent and will depend on each species or strain's absolute and relative contribution to total metabolically active biomass, and will therefore, be a function of its relative fitness within the microbial ecosystem. However, the population dynamics of multispecies fermentations are not well understood. Consequently, the oenological potential of the microbiome in any given grape must, can currently not be evaluated or predicted. To better characterize the rules that govern the complex wine microbial ecosystem, a model yeast consortium comprising eight species commonly encountered in South African grape musts and an ARISA based method to monitor their dynamics were developed and validated. The dynamics of these species were evaluated in synthetic must in the presence or absence of S. cerevisiae using direct viable counts and ARISA. The data show that S. cerevisiae specifically suppresses certain species while appearing to favor the persistence of other species. Growth dynamics in Chenin blanc grape must fermentation was monitored only through viable counts. The interactions observed in the synthetic must, were upheld in the natural must fermentations, suggesting the broad applicability of the observed ecosystem dynamics. Importantly, the presence of indigenous yeast populations did not appear to affect the broad interaction patterns between the consortium species. The data show that the wine ecosystem is characterized by both mutually supportive and inhibitory species. The current study presents a first step in the development of a model to predict the oenological potential of any given wine mycobiome.

Long-term monitoring for conservation management: Lessons from a case study integrating remote sensing and field approaches in floodplain forests.

PubMed

Rodríguez-González, Patricia María; Albuquerque, António; Martínez-Almarza, Miguel; Díaz-Delgado, Ricardo

2017-11-01

Implementing long-term monitoring programs that effectively inform conservation plans is a top priority in environmental management. In floodplain forests, historical pressures interplay with the complex multiscale dynamics of fluvial systems and require integrative approaches to pinpoint drivers for their deterioration and ecosystem services loss. Combining a conceptual framework such as the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) with the development of valid biological indicators can contribute to the analysis of the driving forces and their effects on the ecosystem in order to formulate coordinated conservation measures. In the present study, we evaluate the initial results of a decade (2004-2014) of floodplain forest monitoring. We adopted the DPSIR framework to summarize the main drivers in land use and environmental change, analyzed the effects on biological indicators of foundation trees and compared the consistency of the main drivers and their effects at two spatial scales. The monitoring program was conducted in one of the largest and best preserved floodplain forests in SW Europe located within Doñana National Park (Spain) which is dominated by Salix atrocinerea and Fraxinus angustifolia. The program combined field (in situ) surveys on a network of permanent plots with several remote sensing sources. The accuracy obtained in spectral classifications allowed shifts in species cover across the whole forest to be detected and assessed. However, remote sensing did not reflect the ecological status of forest populations. The field survey revealed a general decline in Salix populations, especially in the first five years of sampling -a factor probably associated with a lag effect from past human impact on the hydrology of the catchment and recent extreme climatic episodes (drought). In spite of much reduced seed regeneration, a resprouting strategy allows long-lived Salix individuals to persist in complex spatial dynamics. This suggests the beginning of a recovery resulting from recent coordinated societal responses to control excessive water extraction in the catchment, highlighting the need for continuing long-term monitoring. The DPSIR framework proved useful as a conceptual tool in analyzing the entire environmental system, while both field and remote sensing approaches complemented each other in quantifying indicator trends, improving the monitoring design and informing conservation plans. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Single Cell Proteolytic Assays to Investigate Cancer Clonal Heterogeneity and Cell Dynamics Using an Efficient Cell Loading Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Chih; Cheng, Yu-Heng; Ingram, Patrick; Yoon, Euisik

2016-06-01

Proteolytic degradation of the extracellular matrix (ECM) is critical in cancer invasion, and recent work suggests that heterogeneous cancer populations cooperate in this process. Despite the importance of cell heterogeneity, conventional proteolytic assays measure average activity, requiring thousands of cells and providing limited information about heterogeneity and dynamics. Here, we developed a microfluidic platform that provides high-efficiency cell loading and simple valveless isolation, so the proteolytic activity of a small sample (10-100 cells) can be easily characterized. Combined with a single cell derived (clonal) sphere formation platform, we have successfully demonstrated the importance of microenvironmental cues for proteolytic activity and also investigated the difference between clones. Furthermore, the platform allows monitoring single cells at multiple time points, unveiling different cancer cell line dynamics in proteolytic activity. The presented tool facilitates single cell proteolytic analysis using small samples, and our findings illuminate the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of proteolytic activity.

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events

PubMed Central

Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J.

2018-01-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag–recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004–2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event. PMID:29657746

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J

2018-03-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag-recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004-2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event.

Population dynamics of Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik: 1966-2012.

PubMed

Miquelle, Dale G; Smirnov, Evgeny N; Zaumyslova, Olga Yu; Soutyrina, Svetlana V; Johnson, Douglas H

2015-07-01

In 2010, the world's tiger (Panthera tigris) range countries agreed to the goal of doubling tiger numbers over 12 years, but whether such an increase is biologically feasible has not been assessed. Long-term monitoring of tigers in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), Russia provided an opportunity to determine growth rates of a recovering population. A 41-year growth phase was followed by a rapid decline in tiger numbers. Annual growth rates during the growth phase averaged 4.6%, beginning near 10% in the earliest years but quickly dropping below 5%. Sex ratio (females per male) mirrored growth rates, declining as population size increased. The rapid decline from 2009 to 2012 appeared to be tied to multiple factors, including poaching, severe winters and disease. Reproductive indicators of this population are similar to those of Bengal tiger populations, suggesting that growth rates may be similar. These results suggest that, first, tiger populations likely in general grow slowly: 3-5% yearly increases are realistic and larger growth rates are likely only when populations are highly depressed, mortality rates are low and prey populations are high relative to numbers of adult females. Second, while more research is needed, it should not be assumed that tiger populations with high prey densities will necessarily grow more quickly than populations with low prey densities. Third, while growth is slow, decline can be rapid. Fourth, because declines can happen so quickly, there is a constant need to monitor populations and be ready to respond with appropriate and timely conservation interventions if tiger populations are to remain secure. Finally, an average annual growth rate across all tiger populations of 6%, required to reach the Global Tiger Initiative's goal of doubling tiger numbers in 12 years, is a noble but unlikely scenario. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Towards monitoring real-time cellular response using an integrated microfluidics-MALDI/nESI-ion mobility-mass spectrometry platform

PubMed Central

Enders, Jeffrey R.; Marasco, Christina C.; Kole, Ayeeshik; Nguyen, Bao; Sundarapandian, Sevugarajan; Seale, Kevin T.; Wikswo, John P.; McLean, John A.

2014-01-01

The combination of microfluidic cell trapping devices with ion mobility-mass spectrometry offers the potential for elucidating in real time the dynamic responses of small populations of cells to paracrine signals, changes in metabolite levels, and delivery of drugs and toxins. Preliminary experiments examining peptides in methanol and recording the interactions of yeast and Jurkat cells with their superfusate have identified instrumental setup and control parameters and on-line desalting procedures. Numerous initial experiments demonstrate and validate this new instrumental platform. Future outlooks and potential applications are addressed, specifically how this instrumentation may be used for fully automated systems biology studies of the significantly interdependent, dynamic internal workings of cellular metabolic and signaling pathways. PMID:21073240

ULTRAFAST CHEMISTRY: Using Time-Resolved Vibrational Spectroscopy for Interrogation of Structural Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nibbering, Erik T. J.; Fidder, Henk; Pines, Ehud

2005-05-01

Time-resolved infrared (IR) and Raman spectroscopy elucidates molecular structure evolution during ultrafast chemical reactions. Following vibrational marker modes in real time provides direct insight into the structural dynamics, as is evidenced in studies on intramolecular hydrogen transfer, bimolecular proton transfer, electron transfer, hydrogen bonding during solvation dynamics, bond fission in organometallic compounds and heme proteins, cis-trans isomerization in retinal proteins, and transformations in photochromic switch pairs. Femtosecond IR spectroscopy monitors the site-specific interactions in hydrogen bonds. Conversion between excited electronic states can be followed for intramolecular electron transfer by inspection of the fingerprint IR- or Raman-active vibrations in conjunction with quantum chemical calculations. Excess internal vibrational energy, generated either by optical excitation or by internal conversion from the electronic excited state to the ground state, is observable through transient frequency shifts of IR-active vibrations and through nonequilibrium populations as deduced by Raman resonances.

Dynamic and social behaviors of human pluripotent stem cells.

PubMed

Phadnis, Smruti M; Loewke, Nathan O; Dimov, Ivan K; Pai, Sunil; Amwake, Christine E; Solgaard, Olav; Baer, Thomas M; Chen, Bertha; Reijo Pera, Renee A

2015-09-18

Human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) can self-renew or differentiate to diverse cell types, thus providing a platform for basic and clinical applications. However, pluripotent stem cell populations are heterogeneous and functional properties at the single cell level are poorly documented leading to inefficiencies in differentiation and concerns regarding reproducibility and safety. Here, we use non-invasive time-lapse imaging to continuously examine hPSC maintenance and differentiation and to predict cell viability and fate. We document dynamic behaviors and social interactions that prospectively distinguish hPSC survival, self-renewal, and differentiation. Results highlight the molecular role of E-cadherin not only for cell-cell contact but also for clonal propagation of hPSCs. Results indicate that use of continuous time-lapse imaging can distinguish cellular heterogeneity with respect to pluripotency as well as a subset of karyotypic abnormalities whose dynamic properties were monitored.

Dynamic and social behaviors of human pluripotent stem cells

PubMed Central

Phadnis, Smruti M.; Loewke, Nathan O.; Dimov, Ivan K.; Pai, Sunil; Amwake, Christine E.; Solgaard, Olav; Baer, Thomas M.; Chen, Bertha; Pera, Renee A. Reijo

2015-01-01

Human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) can self-renew or differentiate to diverse cell types, thus providing a platform for basic and clinical applications. However, pluripotent stem cell populations are heterogeneous and functional properties at the single cell level are poorly documented leading to inefficiencies in differentiation and concerns regarding reproducibility and safety. Here, we use non-invasive time-lapse imaging to continuously examine hPSC maintenance and differentiation and to predict cell viability and fate. We document dynamic behaviors and social interactions that prospectively distinguish hPSC survival, self-renewal, and differentiation. Results highlight the molecular role of E-cadherin not only for cell-cell contact but also for clonal propagation of hPSCs. Results indicate that use of continuous time-lapse imaging can distinguish cellular heterogeneity with respect to pluripotency as well as a subset of karyotypic abnormalities whose dynamic properties were monitored. PMID:26381699

United time-frequency spectroscopy for dynamics and global structure.

PubMed

Marian, Adela; Stowe, Matthew C; Lawall, John R; Felinto, Daniel; Ye, Jun

2004-12-17

Ultrashort laser pulses have thus far been used in two distinct modes. In the time domain, the pulses have allowed probing and manipulation of dynamics on a subpicosecond time scale. More recently, phase stabilization has produced optical frequency combs with absolute frequency reference across a broad bandwidth. Here we combine these two applications in a spectroscopic study of rubidium atoms. A wide-bandwidth, phase-stabilized femtosecond laser is used to monitor the real-time dynamic evolution of population transfer. Coherent pulse accumulation and quantum interference effects are observed and well modeled by theory. At the same time, the narrow linewidth of individual comb lines permits a precise and efficient determination of the global energy-level structure, providing a direct connection among the optical, terahertz, and radio-frequency domains. The mechanical action of the optical frequency comb on the atomic sample is explored and controlled, leading to precision spectroscopy with an appreciable reduction in systematic errors.

Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control

PubMed Central

Conan, Anne; Akerele, Oluyemisi; Simpson, Greg; Reininghaus, Bjorn; van Rooyen, Jacques; Knobel, Darryn

2015-01-01

Background Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies. Methodology/Principal Findings We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28–1.85). In the age class 0–3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05–0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11–0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months. Conclusions and Significance Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization’s empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination. PMID:26545242

Factors associated with the deposition of Cladophora on Lake Michigan beaches in 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Stephen C.; Tucker, Taaja R.; Adams, Jean V.; Fogarty, Lisa R.; Lafrancois, Brenda Moraska

2015-01-01

Deposition of the macroalgae Cladophora spp. was monitored on 18 beaches around Lake Michigan during 2012 at a high temporal frequency. We observed a high degree of spatial variability in Cladophora deposition among beaches on Lake Michigan, even within local regions, with no clear regional pattern in the intensity of Cladophora deposition. A strong seasonal pattern in Cladophora deposition was observed, with the heaviest deposition occurring during mid-summer. Several beaches exhibited high temporal variability in Cladophora deposition over short time scales, suggesting that drifting algal mats may be extremely dynamic in nearshore environments of the Great Lakes. Cladophora deposition on Lake Michigan beaches was primarily related to the presence of nearshore structures, local population density, and nearshore bathymetry. There was relatively little evidence that waves, winds, or currents were associated with Cladophora deposition on beaches, but this may be due to the relatively poor resolution of existing nearshore hydrodynamic data. Developing a predictive understanding of beach-cast Cladophora dynamics in Great Lakes environments may require both intensive Cladophora monitoring and fine-scale local hydrodynamic modeling efforts.

Monitoring subsidence with InSAR and inference of groundwater change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farr, T. G.

2014-12-01

Groundwater use is increasing in many parts of the world due to population pressure and reduced availability of surface water and rainfall. California's Central Valley and southern Arizona in particular have experienced subsidence in many groundwater basins in recent years due to groundwater overdraft. In order to make informed decisions for adaptation, water resource managers need to know the extent of groundwater depletion, both spatially and volumetrically, and to be able to monitor it over long periods. Water wells provide one solution, but owing to remoteness, funding limitations, a lack of wells, and the difficulty of mandating government monitoring of private wells, less direct methods are necessary. Mapping and monitoring subsidence and rebound from orbit with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) may provide important indicators of groundwater state and dynamics for water resource managers as well as warnings of potential damage to infrastructure. We are working with water resource managers at the California Department of Water Resources to produce and update maps of subsidence 'hot-spots' where subsidence threatens to cause irreversible aquifer compaction and loss of groundwater storage capacity. In the future, Germany's TerraSAR-X, Italy's Cosmo SkyMed, Japan's PALSAR-2, Europe's Sentinels, and NASA's NISAR offer the promise of extending the time series of observations and expanding this capability to regions of the world with no effective means to monitor the state of their groundwater. This would provide societal benefits to large segments of the global population dependent on groundwater to bridge gaps in surface and rain water supply. As Earth's climate changes, monitoring of this critical resource will help reduce conflicts over water. * Work performed under contract to NASA

Dynamics of Legionella spp. and bacterial populations during the proliferation of L. pneumophila in a cooling tower facility.

PubMed

Wéry, Nathalie; Bru-Adan, Valérie; Minervini, Céline; Delgénes, Jean-Philippe; Garrelly, Laurent; Godon, Jean-Jacques

2008-05-01

The dynamics of Legionella spp. and of dominant bacteria were investigated in water from a cooling tower plant over a 9-month period which included several weeks when Legionella pneumophila proliferated. The structural diversity of both the bacteria and the Legionella spp. was monitored by a fingerprint technique, single-strand conformation polymorphism, and Legionella spp. and L. pneumophila were quantified by real-time quantitative PCR. The structure of the bacterial community did not change over time, but it was perturbed periodically by chemical treatment or biofilm detachment. In contrast, the structure of the Legionella sp. population changed in different periods, its dynamics at times showing stability but also a rapid major shift during the proliferation of L. pneumophila in July. The dynamics of the Legionella spp. and of dominant bacteria were not correlated. In particular, no change in the bacterial community structure was observed during the proliferation of L. pneumophila. Legionella spp. present in the cooling tower system were identified by cloning and sequencing of 16S rRNA genes. A high diversity of Legionella spp. was observed before proliferation, including L. lytica, L. fallonii, and other Legionella-like amoebal pathogen types, along with as-yet-undescribed species. During the proliferation of L. pneumophila, Legionella sp. diversity decreased significantly, L. fallonii and L. pneumophila being the main species recovered.

Dynamics of Legionella spp. and Bacterial Populations during the Proliferation of L. pneumophila in a Cooling Tower Facility▿

PubMed Central

Wéry, Nathalie; Bru-Adan, Valérie; Minervini, Céline; Delgénes, Jean-Philippe; Garrelly, Laurent; Godon, Jean-Jacques

2008-01-01

The dynamics of Legionella spp. and of dominant bacteria were investigated in water from a cooling tower plant over a 9-month period which included several weeks when Legionella pneumophila proliferated. The structural diversity of both the bacteria and the Legionella spp. was monitored by a fingerprint technique, single-strand conformation polymorphism, and Legionella spp. and L. pneumophila were quantified by real-time quantitative PCR. The structure of the bacterial community did not change over time, but it was perturbed periodically by chemical treatment or biofilm detachment. In contrast, the structure of the Legionella sp. population changed in different periods, its dynamics at times showing stability but also a rapid major shift during the proliferation of L. pneumophila in July. The dynamics of the Legionella spp. and of dominant bacteria were not correlated. In particular, no change in the bacterial community structure was observed during the proliferation of L. pneumophila. Legionella spp. present in the cooling tower system were identified by cloning and sequencing of 16S rRNA genes. A high diversity of Legionella spp. was observed before proliferation, including L. lytica, L. fallonii, and other Legionella-like amoebal pathogen types, along with as-yet-undescribed species. During the proliferation of L. pneumophila, Legionella sp. diversity decreased significantly, L. fallonii and L. pneumophila being the main species recovered. PMID:18390683

T Cell Dynamic Activation and Functional Analysis in Nanoliter Droplet Microarray.

PubMed

Sarkar, Saheli; Motwani, Vinny; Sabhachandani, Pooja; Cohen, Noa; Konry, Tania

2015-06-01

Characterization of the heterogeneity in immune reactions requires assessing dynamic single cell responses as well as interactions between the various immune cell subsets. Maturation and activation of effector cells is regulated by cell contact-dependent and soluble factor-mediated paracrine signalling. Currently there are few methods available that allow dynamic investigation of both processes simultaneously without physically constraining non-adherent cells and eliminating crosstalk from neighboring cell pairs. We describe here a microfluidic droplet microarray platform that permits rapid functional analysis of single cell responses and co-encapsulation of heterotypic cell pairs, thereby allowing us to evaluate the dynamic activation state of primary T cells. The microfluidic droplet platform enables generation and docking of monodisperse nanoliter volume (0.523 nl) droplets, with the capacity of monitoring a thousand droplets per experiment. Single human T cells were encapsulated in droplets and stimulated on-chip with the calcium ionophore ionomycin. T cells were also co-encapsulated with dendritic cells activated by ovalbumin peptide, followed by dynamic calcium signal monitoring. Ionomycin-stimulated cells depicted fluctuation in calcium signalling compared to control. Both cell populations demonstrated marked heterogeneity in responses. Calcium signalling was observed in T cells immediately following contact with DCs, suggesting an early activation signal. T cells further showed non-contact mediated increase in calcium level, although this response was delayed compared to contact-mediated signals. Our results suggest that this nanoliter droplet array-based microfluidic platform is a promising technique for assessment of heterogeneity in various types of cellular responses, detection of early/delayed signalling events and live cell phenotyping of immune cells.

Protocol for Landsat-Based Monitoring of Landscape Dynamics at North Coast and Cascades Network Parks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Kirschbaum, Alan A.; Haunreiter, Erik

2007-01-01

Background and Objectives As part of the National Park Service's larger goal of developing long-term monitoring programs in response to the Natural Resource Challenge of 2000, the parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) have determined that monitoring of landscape dynamics is necessary to track ecosystem health (Weber and others, 2005). Landscape dynamics refer to a broad suite of ecological, geomorphological, and anthropogenic processes occurring across broad spatial scales. The NCCN has sought protocols that would leverage remote-sensing technologies to aid in monitoring landscape dynamics.

Quantitative breast MRI radiomics for cancer risk assessment and the monitoring of high-risk populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L.

2016-03-01

Breast density is routinely assessed qualitatively in screening mammography. However, it is challenging to quantitatively determine a 3D density from a 2D image such as a mammogram. Furthermore, dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is used more frequently in the screening of high-risk populations. The purpose of our study is to segment parenchyma and to quantitatively determine volumetric breast density on pre-contrast axial DCE-MRI images (i.e., non-contrast) using a semi-automated quantitative approach. In this study, we retroactively examined 3D DCE-MRI images taken for breast cancer screening of a high-risk population. We analyzed 66 cases with ages between 28 and 76 (mean 48.8, standard deviation 10.8). DCE-MRIs were obtained on a Philips 3.0 T scanner. Our semi-automated DCE-MRI algorithm includes: (a) segmentation of breast tissue from non-breast tissue using fuzzy cmeans clustering (b) separation of dense and fatty tissues using Otsu's method, and (c) calculation of volumetric density as the ratio of dense voxels to total breast voxels. We examined the relationship between pre-contrast DCE-MRI density and clinical BI-RADS density obtained from radiology reports, and obtained a statistically significant correlation [Spearman ρ-value of 0.66 (p < 0.0001)]. Our method within precision medicine may be useful for monitoring high-risk populations.

Nasal neuron PET imaging quantifies neuron generation and degeneration

PubMed Central

Van de Bittner, Genevieve C.; Riley, Misha M.; Cao, Luxiang; Herrick, Scott P.; Ricq, Emily L.; O’Neill, Michael J.; Ahmed, Zeshan; Murray, Tracey K.; Smith, Jaclyn E.; Wang, Changning; Schroeder, Frederick A.; Albers, Mark W.; Hooker, Jacob M.

2017-01-01

Olfactory dysfunction is broadly associated with neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative diseases and predicts increased mortality rates in healthy individuals. Conventional measurements of olfactory health assess odor processing pathways within the brain and provide a limited understanding of primary odor detection. Quantification of the olfactory sensory neurons (OSNs), which detect odors within the nasal cavity, would provide insight into the etiology of olfactory dysfunction associated with disease and mortality. Notably, OSNs are continually replenished by adult neurogenesis in mammals, including humans, so OSN measurements are primed to provide specialized insights into neurological disease. Here, we have evaluated a PET radiotracer, [11C]GV1-57, that specifically binds mature OSNs and quantifies the mature OSN population in vivo. [11C]GV1-57 monitored native OSN population dynamics in rodents, detecting OSN generation during postnatal development and aging-associated neurodegeneration. [11C]GV1-57 additionally measured rates of neuron regeneration after acute injury and early-stage OSN deficits in a rodent tauopathy model of neurodegenerative disease. Preliminary assessment in nonhuman primates suggested maintained uptake and saturable binding of [18F]GV1-57 in primate nasal epithelium, supporting its translational potential. Future applications for GV1-57 include monitoring additional diseases or conditions associated with olfactory dysregulation, including cognitive decline, as well as monitoring effects of neuroregenerative or neuroprotective therapeutics. PMID:28112682

Incorporating Equipment Condition Assessment in Risk Monitors for Advanced Small Modular Reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coble, Jamie B.; Coles, Garill A.; Meyer, Ryan M.

2013-10-01

Advanced small modular reactors (aSMRs) can complement the current fleet of large light-water reactors in the USA for baseload and peak demand power production and process heat applications (e.g., water desalination, shale oil extraction, hydrogen production). The day-to-day costs of aSMRs are expected to be dominated by operations and maintenance (O&M); however, the effect of diverse operating missions and unit modularity on O&M is not fully understood. These costs could potentially be reduced by optimized scheduling, with risk-informed scheduling of maintenance, repair, and replacement of equipment. Currently, most nuclear power plants have a “living” probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which reflectsmore » the as-operated, as-modified plant and combine event probabilities with population-based probability of failure (POF) for key components. “Risk monitors” extend the PRA by incorporating the actual and dynamic plant configuration (equipment availability, operating regime, environmental conditions, etc.) into risk assessment. In fact, PRAs are more integrated into plant management in today’s nuclear power plants than at any other time in the history of nuclear power. However, population-based POF curves are still used to populate fault trees; this approach neglects the time-varying condition of equipment that is relied on during standard and non-standard configurations. Equipment condition monitoring techniques can be used to estimate the component POF. Incorporating this unit-specific estimate of POF in the risk monitor can provide a more accurate estimate of risk in different operating and maintenance configurations. This enhanced risk assessment will be especially important for aSMRs that have advanced component designs, which don’t have an available operating history to draw from, and often use passive design features, which present challenges to PRA. This paper presents the requirements and technical gaps for developing a framework to integrate unit-specific estimates of POF into risk monitors, resulting in enhanced risk monitors that support optimized operation and maintenance of aSMRs.« less

A review on bridge dynamic displacement monitoring using global positioning system and accelerometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunus, Mohd Zulkifli Mohd; Ibrahim, Nuremira; Ahmad, Fatimah Shafinaz

2018-02-01

This paper reviews previous research on bridge dynamic displacement monitoring using Global Positioning System (GPS) and an accelerometer for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of bridge. These include the review of the advantages and disadvantages of the measurement as well as the methodology of the measurements used in the recent research study. This review could provide a preliminary decision overview for students or researchers before initiating a research related to the bridge dynamic displacement monitoring.

Population dynamics of cocirculating swine influenza A viruses in the United States from 2009 to 2012.

PubMed

Anderson, Tavis K; Nelson, Martha I; Kitikoon, Pravina; Swenson, Sabrina L; Korslund, John A; Vincent, Amy L

2013-12-01

Understanding the ecology and evolution of influenza A viruses (IAV) in mammalian hosts is critical to reduce disease burden in production animals and lower zoonotic infection risk in humans. Recent advances in influenza surveillance in US swine populations allow for timely epidemiological, phylogenetic, and virological analyses that monitor emergence of novel viruses and assess changes in viral population dynamics. To better understand IAV in the North American swine population, we undertook a phylogenetic analysis of 1075 HA, 1049 NA, and 1040 M sequences of IAV isolated from US swine during 2009-2012 through voluntary and anonymous submissions to the US Department of Agriculture IAV swine surveillance system. Analyses revealed changes in population dynamics among multiple clades of A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and A/H1N2 cocirculating in US swine populations during 2009-2012. Viral isolates were categorized into one of seven genetically and antigenically distinct hemagglutinin lineages: H1α, H1β, H1γ, H1δ1, H1δ2, H1pdm09, and H3 cluster IV. There was an increase in occurrence of H1δ1 in samples submitted, with a concurrent decrease in H1pdm09. H3 cluster IV exhibited increasing diversification, warranting a re-evaluation of phylogenetic nomenclature criteria. Although H3N2 represented 25% of identified viruses, this subtype was reported in increasing proportion of sequenced isolates since late 2011. Surveillance and reporting of IAV in US swine have increased since 2009, and we demonstrate a period of expanded viral diversity. These data may be used to inform intervention strategies of vaccine and diagnostic updates and changes in swine health management. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Managed Metapopulations: Do Salmon Hatchery ‘Sources’ Lead to In-River ‘Sinks’ in Conservation?

PubMed Central

Johnson, Rachel C.; Weber, Peter K.; Wikert, John D.; Workman, Michelle L.; MacFarlane, R. Bruce; Grove, Marty J.; Schmitt, Axel K.

2012-01-01

Maintaining viable populations of salmon in the wild is a primary goal for many conservation and recovery programs. The frequency and extent of connectivity among natal sources defines the demographic and genetic boundaries of a population. Yet, the role that immigration of hatchery-produced adults may play in altering population dynamics and fitness of natural populations remains largely unquantified. Quantifying, whether natural populations are self-sustaining, functions as sources (population growth rate in the absence of dispersal, λ>1), or as sinks (λ<1) can be obscured by an inability to identify immigrants. In this study we use a new isotopic approach to demonstrate that a natural spawning population of Chinook salmon, (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) considered relatively healthy, represents a sink population when the contribution of hatchery immigrants is taken into consideration. We retrieved sulfur isotopes (34S/32S, referred to as δ34S) in adult Chinook salmon otoliths (ear bones) that were deposited during their early life history as juveniles to determine whether individuals were produced in hatcheries or naturally in rivers. Our results show that only 10.3% (CI = 5.5 to 18.1%) of adults spawning in the river had otolith δ34S values less than 8.5‰, which is characteristic of naturally produced salmon. When considering the total return to the watershed (total fish in river and hatchery), we estimate that 90.7 to 99.3% (CI) of returning adults were produced in a hatchery (best estimate = 95.9%). When population growth rate of the natural population was modeled to account for the contribution of previously unidentified hatchery immigrants, we found that hatchery-produced fish caused the false appearance of positive population growth. These findings highlight the potential dangers in ignoring source-sink dynamics in recovering natural populations, and question the extent to which declines in natural salmon populations are undetected by monitoring programs. PMID:22347362

Managed Metapopulations: Do Salmon Hatchery ‘Sources’ Lead to In-River ‘Sinks’ in Conservation?

DOE PAGES

Johnson, Rachel C.; Weber, Peter K.; Wikert, John D.; ...

2012-02-08

Maintaining viable populations of salmon in the wild is a primary goal for many conservation and recovery programs. The frequency and extent of connectivity among natal sources defines the demographic and genetic boundaries of a population. Yet, the role that immigration of hatchery-produced adults may play in altering population dynamics and fitness of natural populations remains largely unquantified. Quantifying, whether natural populations are self-sustaining, functions as sources (population growth rate in the absence of dispersal, λ>1), or as sinks (λ<1) can be obscured by an inability to identify immigrants. In this study we use a new isotopic approach to demonstratemore » that a natural spawning population of Chinook salmon, (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) considered relatively healthy, represents a sink population when the contribution of hatchery immigrants is taken into consideration. We retrieved sulfur isotopes ( 34S/ 32S, referred to as δ 34S) in adult Chinook salmon otoliths (ear bones) that were deposited during their early life history as juveniles to determine whether individuals were produced in hatcheries or naturally in rivers. Our results show that only 10.3% (CI=5.5 to 18.1%) of adults spawning in the river had otolith δ 34S values less than 8.5‰, which is characteristic of naturally produced salmon. When considering the total return to the watershed (total fish in river and hatchery), we estimate that 90.7 to 99.3% (CI) of returning adults were produced in a hatchery (best estimate=95.9%). When population growth rate of the natural population was modeled to account for the contribution of previously unidentified hatchery immigrants, we found that hatchery-produced fish caused the false appearance of positive population growth. In conclusion, these findings highlight the potential dangers in ignoring source-sink dynamics in recovering natural populations, and question the extent to which declines in natural salmon populations are undetected by monitoring programs.« less

Annual dynamics of wild bee densities: attractiveness and productivity effects of oilseed rape.

PubMed

Riedinger, Verena; Mitesser, Oliver; Hovestadt, Thomas; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Holzschuh, Andrea

2015-05-01

Mass-flowering crops may affect long-term population dynamics, but effects on pollinators have never been studied across several years. We monitored wild bees in oilseed rape fields in 16 landscapes in Germany in two consecutive years. Effects on bee densities of landscape oilseed rape cover in the years of monitoring and in the previous years were evaluated with landscape data from three consecutive years. We fit empirical data to a mechanistic model to provide estimates for oilseed rape attractiveness and its effect on bee productivity in comparison to the rest of the landscape, and we evaluated consequences for pollinator densities in consecutive years. Our results show that high oilseed rape cover in the previous year enhances current densities of wild bees (except for bumble bees). Moreover, we show a strong attractiveness of and dilution on (i.e., decreasing bee densities with increasing landscape oilseed rape cover) oilseed rape for bees during flowering in the current year, modifying the effect of the previous year's oilseed rape cover in the case of wild bees (excluding Bombus). As long as other factors such as nesting sites or natural enemies do not limit bee reproduction, our findings suggest long-term positive effects of mass-flowering crops on bee populations, at least for non-Bombus generalists, which possibly help to maintain crop pollination services even when crop area increases. Similar effects are conceivable for other organisms providing ecosystem services in annual crops and should be considered in future studies.

Migration monitoring in shorebirds and landbirds: commonalities and differences

Treesearch

Susan K. Skagen; Jonathan Bart

2005-01-01

Several aspects of a developing program to monitor shorebirds in the western hemisphere are pertinent to migration monitoring of landbirds. Goals of the Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) include estimating population size and population trends of 74 species, sub-species and distinct populations of North American shorebirds, monitoring...

Optical control demonstrates switch-like PIP3 dynamics underlying the initiation of immune cell migration

PubMed Central

Karunarathne, W. K. Ajith; Giri, Lopamudra; Patel, Anilkumar K.; Venkatesh, Kareenhalli V.; Gautam, N.

2013-01-01

There is a dearth of approaches to experimentally direct cell migration by continuously varying signal input to a single cell, evoking all possible migratory responses and quantitatively monitoring the cellular and molecular response dynamics. Here we used a visual blue opsin to recruit the endogenous G-protein network that mediates immune cell migration. Specific optical inputs to this optical trigger of signaling helped steer migration in all possible directions with precision. Spectrally selective imaging was used to monitor cell-wide phosphatidylinositol (3,4,5)-triphosphate (PIP3), cytoskeletal, and cellular dynamics. A switch-like PIP3 increase at the cell front and a decrease at the back were identified, underlying the decisive migratory response. Migration was initiated at the rapidly increasing switch stage of PIP3 dynamics. This result explains how a migratory cell filters background fluctuations in the intensity of an extracellular signal but responds by initiating directionally sensitive migration to a persistent signal gradient across the cell. A two-compartment computational model incorporating a localized activator that is antagonistic to a diffusible inhibitor was able to simulate the switch-like PIP3 response. It was also able simulate the slow dissipation of PIP3 on signal termination. The ability to independently apply similar signaling inputs to single cells detected two cell populations with distinct thresholds for migration initiation. Overall the optical approach here can be applied to understand G-protein–coupled receptor network control of other cell behaviors. PMID:23569254

Optical control demonstrates switch-like PIP3 dynamics underlying the initiation of immune cell migration.

PubMed

Karunarathne, W K Ajith; Giri, Lopamudra; Patel, Anilkumar K; Venkatesh, Kareenhalli V; Gautam, N

2013-04-23

There is a dearth of approaches to experimentally direct cell migration by continuously varying signal input to a single cell, evoking all possible migratory responses and quantitatively monitoring the cellular and molecular response dynamics. Here we used a visual blue opsin to recruit the endogenous G-protein network that mediates immune cell migration. Specific optical inputs to this optical trigger of signaling helped steer migration in all possible directions with precision. Spectrally selective imaging was used to monitor cell-wide phosphatidylinositol (3,4,5)-triphosphate (PIP3), cytoskeletal, and cellular dynamics. A switch-like PIP3 increase at the cell front and a decrease at the back were identified, underlying the decisive migratory response. Migration was initiated at the rapidly increasing switch stage of PIP3 dynamics. This result explains how a migratory cell filters background fluctuations in the intensity of an extracellular signal but responds by initiating directionally sensitive migration to a persistent signal gradient across the cell. A two-compartment computational model incorporating a localized activator that is antagonistic to a diffusible inhibitor was able to simulate the switch-like PIP3 response. It was also able simulate the slow dissipation of PIP3 on signal termination. The ability to independently apply similar signaling inputs to single cells detected two cell populations with distinct thresholds for migration initiation. Overall the optical approach here can be applied to understand G-protein-coupled receptor network control of other cell behaviors.

Monitoring Bridge Dynamic Responses Using Fiber Bragg Grating Tiltmeters.

PubMed

Xiao, Feng; Chen, Gang S; Hulsey, J Leroy

2017-10-20

In bridge health monitoring, tiltmeters have been used for measuring rotation and curvature; however, their application in dynamic parameter identification has been lacking. This study installed fiber Bragg grating (FBG) tiltmeters on the bearings of a bridge and monitored the dynamic rotational angle. The dynamic features, including natural frequencies and mode shapes, have been identified successfully. The innovation presented in this paper is the first-time use of FBG tiltmeter readings to identify the natural frequencies of a long-span steel girder bridge. The identified results have been verified using a bridge finite element model. This paper introduces a new method for the dynamic monitoring of a bridge using FBG tiltmeters. Limitations and future research directions are also discussed in the conclusion.

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—A synthesis of science, 2005 to 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delonay, Aaron J.; Chojnacki, Kimberly A.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Albers, Janice L.; Braaten, Patrick J.; Bulliner, Edward A.; Elliott, Caroline M.; Erwin, Susannah O.; Fuller, David B; Haas, Justin D.; Ladd, Hallie L.A.; Mestl, Gerald E.; Papoulias, Diana M.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2016-01-20

Scientific understanding of the ecological requirements of pallid sturgeon has increased almost exponentially in the last two decades, and efforts are now turning from understanding fundamental biology of the species to quantifying how population dynamics relate to potential management actions. Progress in developing the science needed to inform management actions on the Missouri River may benefit from continuation of monitoring of reproductive cycles, reproductive movements, growth, and survival of telemetry tagged adults, increased emphasis on focused, complementary field and laboratory studies of factors influencing early life history, implementation of studies to resolve the role of food limitations in growth, survival, and reproductive condition, and implementation of studies designed specifically to parameterize models linking management to populations.

Dynamics and distribution of black abalone populations at San Nicolas Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

VanBlaricom, Glenn R.; Hochberg, F.G.

1993-01-01

Dense populations of black abalones (Haliotis cracherodii Leach) were monitored in permanent intertidal plots at nine sites on San Nicolas Island from 1981 through 1990. Densities were essentially constant at all four sites along the north shore of the island throughout the study period. Densities at five sites along the south shore were more variable, possibly reflecting asynchronous variation in recruitment, mortality resulting from wave disturbance, and removal by people. Temporal variation of abalone densities apparently was not influenced by sea otters or abalone withering syndrome during this study. Abalones were strongly aggregated in space. Highest densities occurred in areas of irregular substrata, apparently as a result of preference for crevices and vertical faces. The locations of dense patches were persistent in time.

Landscape genetics of the nonnative red fox of California.

PubMed

Sacks, Benjamin N; Brazeal, Jennifer L; Lewis, Jeffrey C

2016-07-01

Invasive mammalian carnivores contribute disproportionately to declines in global biodiversity. In California, nonnative red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) have significantly impacted endangered ground-nesting birds and native canids. These foxes derive primarily from captive-reared animals associated with the fur-farming industry. Over the past five decades, the cumulative area occupied by nonnative red fox increased to cover much of central and southern California. We used a landscape-genetic approach involving mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and 13 microsatellites of 402 nonnative red foxes removed in predator control programs to investigate source populations, contemporary connectivity, and metapopulation dynamics. Both markers indicated high population structuring consistent with origins from multiple introductions and low subsequent gene flow. Landscape-genetic modeling indicated that population connectivity was especially low among coastal sampling sites surrounded by mountainous wildlands but somewhat higher through topographically flat, urban and agricultural landscapes. The genetic composition of populations tended to be stable for multiple generations, indicating a degree of demographic resilience to predator removal programs. However, in two sites where intensive predator control reduced fox abundance, we observed increases in immigration, suggesting potential for recolonization to counter eradication attempts. These findings, along with continued genetic monitoring, can help guide localized management of foxes by identifying points of introductions and routes of spread and evaluating the relative importance of reproduction and immigration in maintaining populations. More generally, the study illustrates the utility of a landscape-genetic approach for understanding invasion dynamics and metapopulation structure of one of the world's most destructive invasive mammals, the red fox.

Geospace Science from Ground-based Magnetometer Arrays: Advances in Sensors, Data Collection, and Data Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Ian; Chi, Peter

2016-07-01

Networks of ground-based magnetometers now provide the basis for the diagnosis of magnetic disturbances associated with solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling on a truly global scale. Advances in sensor and digitisation technologies offer increases in sensitivity in fluxgate, induction coil, and new micro-sensor technologies - including the promise of hybrid sensors. Similarly, advances in remote connectivity provide the capacity for truly real-time monitoring of global dynamics at cadences sufficient for monitoring and in many cases resolving system level spatio-temporal ambiguities especially in combination with conjugate satellite measurements. A wide variety of the plasmaphysical processes active in driving geospace dynamics can be monitored based on the response of the electrical current system, including those associated with changes in global convection, magnetospheric substorms and nightside tail flows, as well as due to solar wind changes in both dynamic pressure and in response to rotations of the direction of the IMF. Significantly, any changes to the dynamical system must be communicated by the propagation of long-period Alfven and/or compressional waves. These wave populations hence provide diagnostics for not only the energy transport by the wave fields themselves, but also provide a mechanism for diagnosing the structure of the background plasma medium through which the waves propagate. Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves are especially significant in offering a monitor for mass density profiles, often invisible to particle detectors because of their very low energy, through the application of a variety of magneto-seismology and cross-phase techniques. Renewed scientific interest in the plasma waves associated with near-Earth substorm dynamics, including magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling at substorm onset and their relation to magnetotail flows, as well the importance of global scale ultra-low frequency waves for the energisation, transport, acceleration, and loss of electrons in the radiation belts promise high profile science returns. Integrated, global scale data products also have potential importance and application for real-time monitoring of the space weather threats to electrical power grids from geomagnetically induced currents. Such data exploitation increasingly relies on the collaborations between multiple national magnetometer arrays to generate single data products with common file format and data properties. We review advances in geospace science which can be delivered by networks of ground-based magnetometers - in terms of advances in sensors, data collection, and data integration - including through collaborations within the Ultra-Large Terrestrial International Magnetometer Array (ULTIMA) consortium.

Noninvasive methods for dynamic mapping of microbial populations across the landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meredith, L. K.; Sengupta, A.; Troch, P. A.; Volkmann, T. H. M.

2017-12-01

Soil microorganisms drive key ecosystem processes, and yet characterizing their distribution and activity in soil has been notoriously difficult. This is due, in part, to the heterogeneous nature of their response to changing environmental and nutrient conditions across time and space. These dynamics are challenging to constrain in both natural and experimental systems because of sampling difficulty and constraints. For example, soil microbial sampling at the Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO) infrastructure in Biosphere 2 is limited in efforts to minimize soil disruption to the long term experiment that aims to characterize the interacting biological, hydrological, and geochemical processes driving soil evolution. In this and other systems, new methods are needed to monitor soil microbial communities and their genetic potential over time. In this study, we take advantage of the well-defined boundary conditions on hydrological flow at LEO to develop a new method to nondestructively characterize in situ microbial populations. In our approach, we sample microbes from the seepage flow at the base of each of three replicate LEO hillslopes and use hydrological models to `map back' in situ microbial populations. Over the course of a 3-month periodic rainfall experiment we collected samples from the LEO outflow for DNA and extraction and microbial community composition analysis. These data will be used to describe changes in microbial community composition over the course of the experiment. In addition, we will use hydrological flow models to identify the changing source region of discharge water over the course of periodic rainfall pulses, thereby mapping back microbial populations onto their geographic origin in the slope. These predictions of in situ microbial populations will be ground-truthed against those derived from destructive soil sampling at the beginning and end of the rainfall experiment. Our results will show the suitability of this method for long-term, non-destructive monitoring of the microbial communities that contribute to soil evolution in this large-scale model system. Furthermore, this method may be useful for other study systems with limitations to destructive sampling including other model infrastructures and natural landscapes.

Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2012-12-01

Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

PubMed

Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

2015-06-01

Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

Contrasting Transmission Dynamics of Co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination.

PubMed

Noviyanti, Rintis; Coutrier, Farah; Utami, Retno A S; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Tirta, Yusrifar K; Trianty, Leily; Kusuma, Andreas; Sutanto, Inge; Kosasih, Ayleen; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hawley, William A; Laihad, Ferdinand; Lobo, Neil; Marfurt, Jutta; Clark, Taane G; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

2015-05-01

Outside of Africa, P. falciparum and P. vivax usually coexist. In such co-endemic regions, successful malaria control programs have a greater impact on reducing falciparum malaria, resulting in P. vivax becoming the predominant species of infection. Adding to the challenges of elimination, the dormant liver stage complicates efforts to monitor the impact of ongoing interventions against P. vivax. We investigated molecular approaches to inform the respective transmission dynamics of P. falciparum and P. vivax and how these could help to prioritize public health interventions. Genotype data generated at 8 and 9 microsatellite loci were analysed in 168 P. falciparum and 166 P. vivax isolates, respectively, from four co-endemic sites in Indonesia (Bangka, Kalimantan, Sumba and West Timor). Measures of diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure were used to gauge the transmission dynamics of each species in each setting. Marked differences were observed in the diversity and population structure of P. vivax versus P. falciparum. In Bangka, Kalimantan and Timor, P. falciparum diversity was low, and LD patterns were consistent with unstable, epidemic transmission, amenable to targeted intervention. In contrast, P. vivax diversity was higher and transmission appeared more stable. Population differentiation was lower in P. vivax versus P. falciparum, suggesting that the hypnozoite reservoir might play an important role in sustaining local transmission and facilitating the spread of P. vivax infections in different endemic settings. P. vivax polyclonality varied with local endemicity, demonstrating potential utility in informing on transmission intensity in this species. Molecular approaches can provide important information on malaria transmission that is not readily available from traditional epidemiological measures. Elucidation of the transmission dynamics circulating in a given setting will have a major role in prioritising malaria control strategies, particularly against the relatively neglected non-falciparum species.

Monitoring benthic foraminiferal dynamics at Bottsand coastal lagoon (western Baltic Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schönfeld, Joachim

2018-04-01

Benthic foraminifera from Bottsand coastal lagoon, western Baltic Sea, have been studied since the mid-1960s. They were monitored annually in late autumn since 2003 at the terminal ditch of the lagoon. There were 12 different species recognised, of which three have not been recorded during earlier investigations. Dominant species showed strong interannual fluctuations and a steady increase in population densities over the last decade. Elphidium incertum, a stenohaline species of the Baltic deep water fauna, colonised the Bottsand lagoon in 2016, most likely during a period of salinities >19 units and water temperatures of 18 °C on average in early autumn. The high salinities probably triggered their germination from a propagule bank in the ditch bottom sediment. The new E. incertum population showed densities higher by an order of magnitude than those of the indigenous species. The latter did not decline, revealing that E. incertum used another food source or occupied a different microhabitat. Elphidium incertum survived transient periods of lower salinities in late autumn 2017, though with reduced abundances, and became a regular faunal constituent at the Bottsand lagoon.

Studying the Symbiotic Bacterium Xenorhabdus nematophila in Individual, Living Steinernema carpocapsae Nematodes Using Microfluidic Systems.

PubMed

Stilwell, Matthew D; Cao, Mengyi; Goodrich-Blair, Heidi; Weibel, Douglas B

2018-01-01

Animal-microbe symbioses are ubiquitous in nature and scientifically important in diverse areas, including ecology, medicine, and agriculture. Steinernema nematodes and Xenorhabdus bacteria compose an established, successful model system for investigating microbial pathogenesis and mutualism. The bacterium Xenorhabdus nematophila is a species-specific mutualist of insect-infecting Steinernema carpocapsae nematodes. The bacterium colonizes a specialized intestinal pocket within the infective stage of the nematode, which transports the bacteria between insects that are killed and consumed by the pair for reproduction. Current understanding of the interaction between the infective-stage nematode and its bacterial colonizers is based largely on population-level, snapshot time point studies on these organisms. This limitation arises because investigating temporal dynamics of the bacterium within the nematode is impeded by the difficulty of isolating and maintaining individual living nematodes and tracking colonizing bacterial cells over time. To overcome this challenge, we developed a microfluidic system that enables us to spatially isolate and microscopically observe individual, living Steinernema nematodes and monitor the growth and development of the associated X. nematophila bacterial communities-starting from a single cell or a few cells-over weeks. Our data demonstrate, to our knowledge, the first direct, temporal, in vivo visual analysis of a symbiosis system and the application of this system to reveal continuous dynamics of the symbiont population in the living host animal. IMPORTANCE This paper describes an experimental system for directly investigating population dynamics of a symbiotic bacterium, Xenorhabdus nematophila , in its host-the infective stage of the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema carpocapsae . Tracking individual and groups of bacteria in individual host nematodes over days and weeks yielded insight into dynamic growth and topology changes of symbiotic bacterial populations within infective juvenile nematodes. Our approach for studying symbioses between bacteria and nematodes provides a system to investigate long-term host-microbe interactions in individual nematodes and extrapolate the lessons learned to other bacterium-animal interactions.

Environmental implications of gene flow from sugar beet to wild beet--current status and future research needs.

PubMed

Bartsch, Detlef; Cuguen, Joel; Biancardi, Enrico; Sweet, Jeremy

2003-01-01

Gene flow via seed or pollen is a basic biological process in plant evolution. The ecological and genetic consequences of gene flow depend on the amount and direction of gene flow as well as on the fitness of hybrids. The assessment of potential risks of transgenic plants should take into account the fact that conventional crops can often cross with wild plants. The precautionary approach in risk management of genetically modified plants (GMPs) may make it necessary to monitor significant wild and weed populations that might be affected by transgene escape. Gene flow is hard to control in wind-pollinated plants like beet (Beta vulgaris). In addition, wild beet populations potentially can undergo evolutionary changes which might expand their geographical distribution. Unintended products of cultivated beets pollinated by wild beets are weed beets that bolt and flower during their first year of planting. Weed beets cause yield losses and can delay harvest. Wild beets are important plant genetic resources and the preservation of wild beet diversity in Europe has been considered in biosafety research. We present here the methodology and research approaches that can be used for monitoring the geographical distribution and diversity of Beta populations. It has recently been shown that a century of gene flow from Beta vulgaris ssp. vulgaris has not altered the genetic diversity of wild Beta vulgaris L. ssp. maritima (L.) Arcang. in the Italian sugar beet seed production area. Future research should focus on the potential evolution of transgenic wild beet populations in comparison to these baseline data. Two monitoring models are presented describing how endpoints can be measured: (1) "Pre-post" crop commercialization against today's baseline and (2) "Parallel" to crop commercialization against GMP free reference areas/ populations. Model 2 has the advantage of taking ongoing changes in genetic diversity and population dynamics into account. Model 1 is more applicable if gene flow is so strong that most areas/populations contain GMPs. Important traits that may change the ecology of populations are genes that confer tolerance to biotic and abiotic stress. An assessment of environmental effects can realistically only be based on endpoints and consequences of gene introgression, which may include economic values of biodiversity in littoral and other ecosystems containing wild beet. In general, there is still a great need to harmonize worldwide monitoring systems by the development of appropriate methods to evaluate the environmental impact of introgressed transgenes.

Dynamics of Huanglongbing-associated Bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus in Citrus aurantifolia Swingle (Mexican Lime).

PubMed

Abel Lopez-Buenfil, Jose; Abrahan Ramirez-Pool, Jose; Ruiz-Medrano, Roberto; Del Carmen Montes-Horcasitas, Maria; Chavarin-Palacio, Claudio; Moya-Hinojosa, Jesus; Javier Trujillo-Arriaga, Francisco; Carmona, Rosalia Lira; Xoconostle-Cazares, Beatriz

2017-01-01

The bacterial disease citrus huanglongbing (HLB), associated with "Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus" (C.Las) has severely impacted the citrus industry, causing a significant reduction in production and fruit quality. In the present study, it was monitored the C.Las population dynamics in symptomatic, HLB-positive Mexican lime trees (Citrus aurantifolia Swingle) in a tropical, citrus-producing area of Mexico. The objective of this study was to identify the dynamics of the population of huanglongbing-associated bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus and its insect vector in Citrus aurantifolia Swingle (Mexican lime). Leaf samples were collected every 2 months over a period of 26 months for quantification of bacterial titers and young and mature leaves were collected in each season to determine preferential sites of bacterial accumulation. The proportion of living and dead bacterial cells could be determined through the use of quantitative real-time PCR in the presence of ethidium monoazide (EMA-qPCR). It was observed a lower bacterial titer at high temperatures in the infected trees relative to titers in mild weather, despite a higher accumulation of the insect vector Diaphorina citri in these conditions. This study also revealed seasonal fluctuations in the titers of bacteria in mature leaves when compared to young leaves. No statistically significant correlation between any meteorological variable, C.Las concentration and D. citri population could be drawn. Although, HLB management strategies have focused on vector control, host tree phenology may be important. The evaluation of citrus phenology, C.Las concentration, ACP population and environmental conditions provides insights into the cyclical, seasonal variations of both the HLB pathogen and its vector. These findings should help in the design of integrative HLB control strategies that take into account the accumulation of the pathogen and the presence of its vector.

Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

PubMed

Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

Influence of space use on fitness and the reintroduction success of the Laysan teal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, M.H.; Hatfield, J.S.; Laniawe, L.P.; Vekasy, M.S.; Klavitter, J.L.; Berkowitz, P.; Crampton, L.H.; Walters, J.R.

2012-01-01

Translocation is an important tool for wildlife conservation and biodiversity restoration, but an inefficient one because of the unpredictability of success. Predictors of success such as habitat quality of the release site and number of individuals released have been identified, but the dynamics of successful translocations remain poorly understood. In particular, little is known about the relationship of individual post-release movements to population establishment. In 2004, Laysan teal Anas laysanensis were reintroduced by translocating 20 wild birds from Laysan Island to Midway Atoll. Twenty-two additional wild founders were brought the next year. We monitored the survival, reproductive success and movements of the 42 translocated individuals and their offspring for 4 years. Additionally, we monitored population size from 2004 to 2010. Unlike most translocations, we did not observe elevated post-release mortality despite flight-feather trimming to prevent immediate dispersal off-island: first year survival was > 90% and survival rates until 2009 were 0.65±0.08 for founding adults. Laysan teal flew between the two main islands of Midway Atoll, and offspring had significantly larger maximum movement distances than founders. We monitored 84 nests and observed a significant, negative relationship of home range size to productivity for founding females. Flightless founders did not show fidelity to their release sites, but had strong fidelity to annual home ranges after attaining flight. Although we observed a component Allee effect on mate-finding, this did not translate into a demographic Allee effect, and generally, the high fitness of founders contributed substantially to successful population establishment. Laysan teal abundance increased linearly until 2009, but showed evidence of population regulation afterwards. The population estimate was 473 (95% confidence interval 439–508) in 2010. On the much larger main Hawaiian Islands, we expect greater post-release movement, a stronger component Allee effect, lower survival and lower reproductive rates because of predation to preclude successful reintroductions of this species to sites without predator management.

Calibrating abundance indices with population size estimators of red back salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) in a New England forest

PubMed Central

Ellison, Aaron M.; Jackson, Scott

2015-01-01

Herpetologists and conservation biologists frequently use convenient and cost-effective, but less accurate, abundance indices (e.g., number of individuals collected under artificial cover boards or during natural objects surveys) in lieu of more accurate, but costly and destructive, population size estimators to detect and monitor size, state, and trends of amphibian populations. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, reliable use of abundance indices requires that they be calibrated with accurate population estimators. Such calibrations, however, are rare. The red back salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is an ecologically useful indicator species of forest dynamics, and accurate calibration of indices of salamander abundance could increase the reliability of abundance indices used in monitoring programs. We calibrated abundance indices derived from surveys of P. cinereus under artificial cover boards or natural objects with a more accurate estimator of their population size in a New England forest. Average densities/m2 and capture probabilities of P. cinereus under natural objects or cover boards in independent, replicate sites at the Harvard Forest (Petersham, Massachusetts, USA) were similar in stands dominated by Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and deciduous hardwood species (predominantly Quercus rubra [red oak] and Acer rubrum [red maple]). The abundance index based on salamanders surveyed under natural objects was significantly associated with density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys, but underestimated true density by 50%. In contrast, the abundance index based on cover-board surveys overestimated true density by a factor of 8 and the association between the cover-board index and the density estimates was not statistically significant. We conclude that when calibrated and used appropriately, some abundance indices may provide cost-effective and reliable measures of P. cinereus abundance that could be used in conservation assessments and long-term monitoring at Harvard Forest and other northeastern USA forests. PMID:26020008

Health hazards to wild birds and risk factors associated with anthropogenic food provisioning

PubMed Central

Robinson, Robert A.; Risely, Kate; MacDonald, Susan

2018-01-01

Provision of supplementary food for wild birds at garden feeding stations is a common, large-scale and year-round practice in multiple countries including Great Britain (GB). While these additional dietary resources can benefit wildlife, there is a concomitant risk of disease transmission, particularly when birds repeatedly congregate in the same place at high densities and through interactions of species that would not normally associate in close proximity. Citizen science schemes recording garden birds are popular and can integrate disease surveillance with population monitoring, offering a unique opportunity to explore inter-relationships between supplementary feeding, disease epidemiology and population dynamics. Here, we present findings from a national surveillance programme in GB and note the dynamism of endemic and emerging diseases over a 25-year period, focusing on protozoal (finch trichomonosis), viral (Paridae pox) and bacterial (passerine salmonellosis) diseases with contrasting modes of transmission. We also examine the occurrence of mycotoxin contamination of food residues in bird feeders, which present both a direct and indirect (though immunosuppression) risk to wild bird health. Our results inform evidence-based mitigation strategies to minimize anthropogenically mediated health hazards, while maintaining the benefits of providing supplementary food for wild birds. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host–parasite dynamics in wildlife’. PMID:29531146

The Dynamic Multiprocess Framework: Evidence from Prospective Memory with Contextual Variability

PubMed Central

Scullin, Michael K.; McDaniel, Mark A.; Shelton, Jill Talley

2013-01-01

The ability to remember to execute delayed intentions is referred to as prospective memory. Previous theoretical and empirical work has focused on isolating whether a particular prospective memory task is supported either by effortful monitoring processes or by cue-driven spontaneous processes. In the present work, we advance the Dynamic Multiprocess Framework, which contends that both monitoring and spontaneous retrieval may be utilized dynamically to support prospective remembering. To capture the dynamic interplay between monitoring and spontaneous retrieval we had participants perform many ongoing tasks and told them that their prospective memory cue may occur in any context. Following either a 20-min or a 12-hr retention interval, the prospective memory cues were presented infrequently across three separate ongoing tasks. The monitoring patterns (measured as ongoing task cost relative to a between-subjects control condition) were consistent and robust across the three contexts. There was no evidence for monitoring prior to the initial prospective memory cue; however, individuals who successfully spontaneously retrieved the prospective memory intention, thereby realizing that prospective memory cues could be expected within that context, subsequently monitored. These data support the Dynamic Multiprocess Framework, which contends that individuals will engage monitoring when prospective memory cues are expected, disengage monitoring when cues are not expected, and that when monitoring is disengaged, a probabilistic spontaneous retrieval mechanism can support prospective remembering. PMID:23916951

[Intracranial pressure monitoring and CSF dynamics in patients with neurological disorders: indications and practical considerations].

PubMed

Poca, M; Sahuquillo, J

2001-01-01

The study of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) dynamics is central to the diagnosis of adult chronic hydrocephalus (ACH). At present, many neurology and neurosurgery departments use one or more tests to guide diagnosis of this syndrome and to predict patient response to shunting. In specialised centres, the study of CSF dynamics is combined with continuous intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring. Determination of several variables of CSF dynamics and definitions of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of ICP can be used to establish whether the hydrocephalus is active, compensated or arrested. CSF dynamics and ICP monitoring can also be used to check the correct functioning of the shunt and can be of use in the clinical management of patients with pseudotumor cerebri. Moreover, ICP monitoring is used to guide the treatment of several acute neurological processes. The aim of this review is to describe the fundamentals of CSF dynamics studies and the bases of continuous ICP monitoring. The advantages and disadvantages of several hydrodynamic tests that can be performed by lumbar puncture, as well as the normal and abnormal characteristics of an ICP recording, are discussed.

Wastewater analysis to monitor use of caffeine and nicotine and evaluation of their metabolites as biomarkers for population size assessment.

PubMed

Senta, Ivan; Gracia-Lor, Emma; Borsotti, Andrea; Zuccato, Ettore; Castiglioni, Sara

2015-05-01

The use of caffeine, nicotine and some major metabolites was investigated by wastewater analysis in 13 sewage treatment plants (STPs) across Italy, and their suitability was tested as qualitative and quantitative biomarkers for assessing population size and dynamics. A specific analytical method based on mass spectrometry was developed and validated in raw urban wastewater, and included two caffeine metabolites, 1-methylxanthine and 7-methylxanthine, never reported in wastewater before. All these compounds were found widely at the μg/L level. Mass loads, calculated by multiplying concentrations by the wastewater daily flow rate and normalized to the population served by each plant, were used to compare the profiles from different cities. Some regional differences were observed in the mass loads, especially for nicotine metabolites, which were significantly higher in the south than in the center and north of Italy, reflecting smoking prevalences from population surveys. There were no significant weekly trends, although the mean mass loads of caffeine and its metabolites were slightly lower during the weekend. Most caffeine and nicotine metabolites fulfilled the requirements for an ideal biomarker for the assessment of population size, i.e. being easily detectable in wastewater, stable in sewage and during sampling, and reflecting human metabolism. Nicotine metabolites were tested as quantitative biomarkers to estimate population size and the results agreed well with census data. Caffeine and its metabolites were confirmed as good qualitative biomarkers, but additional information is needed on the caffeine metabolism in relation to the multiple sources of its main metabolites. This exploratory study opens the way to the routine use of nicotine metabolites for estimating population size and dynamics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2016-01-01

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

Lysozyme as a recognition element for monitoring of bacterial population.

PubMed

Zheng, Laibao; Wan, Yi; Yu, Liangmin; Zhang, Dun

2016-01-01

Bacterial infections remain a significant challenge in biomedicine and environment safety. Increasing worldwide demand for point-of-care techniques and increasing concern on their safe development and use, require a simple and sensitive bioanalysis for pathogen detection. However, this goal is not yet achieved. A design for fluorescein isothiocyanate-labeled lysozyme (FITC-LYZ), which provides quantitative binding information for gram-positive bacteria, Micrococcus luteus, and detects pathogen concentration, is presented. The functional lysozyme is used not only as the pathogenic detection platform, but also as a tracking reagent for microbial population in antibacterial tests. A nonlinear relationship between the system response and the logarithm of the bacterial concentration was observed in the range of 1.2×10(2)-1.2×10(5) cfu mL(-1). The system has a potential for further applications and provides a facile and simple method for detection of pathogenic bacteria. Meanwhile, the fluorescein isothiocyanate -labeled lysozyme is also employed as the tracking agent for antibacterial dynamic assay, which show a similar dynamic curve compared with UV-vis test. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reversible large–scale modification of cortical networks during neuroprosthetic control

PubMed Central

Ganguly, Karunesh; Wallis, Jonathan D.

2012-01-01

Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMI) provide a framework to study cortical dynamics and the neural correlates of learning. Neuroprosthetic control has been associated with tuning changes in specific neurons directly projecting to the BMI (hereafter ‘direct neurons’). However, little is known about the larger network dynamics. By monitoring ensembles of neurons that were either causally linked to BMI control or indirectly involved, here we show that proficient neuroprosthetic control is associated with large-scale modifications to the cortical network in macaque monkeys. Specifically, there were changes in the preferred direction of both direct and indirect neurons. Interestingly, with learning, there was a relative decrease in the net modulation of indirect neural activity in comparison to the direct activity. These widespread differential changes in the direct and indirect population activity were remarkably stable from one day to the next and readily coexisted with the long-standing cortical network for upper limb control. Thus, the process of learning BMI control is associated with differential modification of neural populations based on their specific relation to movement control. PMID:21499255

Reversible large-scale modification of cortical networks during neuroprosthetic control.

PubMed

Ganguly, Karunesh; Dimitrov, Dragan F; Wallis, Jonathan D; Carmena, Jose M

2011-05-01

Brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) provide a framework for studying cortical dynamics and the neural correlates of learning. Neuroprosthetic control has been associated with tuning changes in specific neurons directly projecting to the BMI (hereafter referred to as direct neurons). However, little is known about the larger network dynamics. By monitoring ensembles of neurons that were either causally linked to BMI control or indirectly involved, we found that proficient neuroprosthetic control is associated with large-scale modifications to the cortical network in macaque monkeys. Specifically, there were changes in the preferred direction of both direct and indirect neurons. Notably, with learning, there was a relative decrease in the net modulation of indirect neural activity in comparison with direct activity. These widespread differential changes in the direct and indirect population activity were markedly stable from one day to the next and readily coexisted with the long-standing cortical network for upper limb control. Thus, the process of learning BMI control is associated with differential modification of neural populations based on their specific relation to movement control.

Impact of dynamic distribution of floc particles on flocculation effect.

PubMed

Nan, Jun; He, Weipeng; Song, Xinin; Li, Guibai

2009-01-01

Polyaluminum chloride (PAC) was used as coagulant and suspended particles in kaolin water. Online instruments including turbidimeter and particle counter were used to monitor the flocculation process. An evaluation model for demonstrating the impact on the flocculation effect was established based on the multiple linear regression analysis method. The parameter of the index weight of channels quantitatively described how the variation of floc particle population in different size ranges cause the decrement of turbidity. The study showed that the floc particles in different size ranges contributed differently to the decrease of turbidity and that the index weight of channel could excellently indicate the impact degree of floc particles dynamic distribution on flocculation effect. Therefore, the parameter may significantly benefit the development of coagulation and sedimentation techniques as well as the optimal coagulant selection.

Changing the Future of Obesity: Science, Policy and Action

PubMed Central

Gortmaker, Steven L; Swinburn, Boyd; Levy, David; Carter, Rob; Mabry, Patricia L.; Finegood, Diane; Huang, Terry; Marsh, Tim; Moodie, Marj

2011-01-01

The global obesity epidemic has been on the rise for four decades, yet sustained prevention efforts have barely begun. An emerging science using quantitative models has provided key insights into the dynamics of this epidemic, and made it possible to combine different pieces of evidence and calculate the impact of behaviors, interventions and policies at multiple levels – from person to population. Forecasts indicate large effects of high levels of obesity on future population health and economic outcomes. Energy gap models have quantified the relationships of changes in energy intake and expenditure to weight change, and documented the dominant role of increasing intake on obesity prevalence. The empirical evidence base for effective interventions is limited but growing. Several cost-effective policies are identified that governments should prioritize for implementation. Systems science provides a framework for organizing the complexity of forces driving the obesity epidemic and has important implications for policy-makers. Multiple players (including governments, international organizations, the private sector, and civil society) need to contribute complementary actions in a coordinated approach. Priority actions include policies to improve the food and built environments, cross-cutting actions (such as leadership, health-in-all policies, and monitoring), and much greater funding for prevention programs. Increased investment in population obesity monitoring would improve the accuracy of forecasts and evaluations. Embedding actions within existing systems in both health and non-health sectors (trade, agriculture, transport, urban planning, development) can greatly increase impact and sustainability. We call for a sustained worldwide effort to monitor, prevent and control obesity. PMID:21872752

Processes of contaminant accumulation in an Arctic beluga whale population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hickie, B.E.; Muir, D.; Kingsley, M.

1995-12-31

As long-lived top predators in marine food chains, marine mammals accumulate high levels of persistent organic contaminants. While arctic marine mammal contaminant concentrations are lower than those from temperate regions, levels are sufficiently high to be a health concern to people who rely on marine mammals as food. Monitoring programs developed to address this problem and to define spatial and temporal trends often are difficult to interpret since tissue contaminant concentrations vary with species, age, sex, reproductive effort, and condition (ie blubber thickness). It can be difficult to relate contaminant concentrations in other environmental compartments to those in marine mammalsmore » since their residues reflect exposure over their entire life, often 20 to 30 years. Contaminant accumulation models for marine mammals enable us to better understand the importance of, and interaction between, factors affecting contaminant accumulation, and can provide a dynamic framework for interpreting contaminant monitoring data. The authors developed two models for the beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas): one provides a detailed view of processes at the individual level, the other examines population-based processes. The models quantify uptake, release and disposition of organic contaminants over their entire lifespan by incorporating all aspects of life-history. These models are used together to examine impact of a variety of factors on patterns and variability of PCBs found in the West Greenland beluga population (sample size: 696, 729). Factors examined include: energetics, growth, birth rate, lactation, contaminant assimilation and clearance rates, and dietary contaminant concentrations. Results are discussed in relation to the use of marine mammals for monitoring contaminant trends.« less

Stability of detectability over 17 years at a single site and other lizard detection comparisons from Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodda, Gordon H.; Dean-Bradley, Kathryn; Campbell, Earl W.; Fritts, Thomas H.; Lardner, Bjorn; Yackel Adams, Amy A.; Reed, Robert N.

2015-01-01

To obtain quantitative information about population dynamics from counts of animals, the per capita detectabilities of each species must remain constant over the course of monitoring. We characterized lizard detection constancy for four species over 17 yr from a single site in northern Guam, a relatively benign situation because detection was relatively easy and we were able to hold constant the site, habitat type, species, season, and sampling method. We monitored two species of diurnal terrestrial skinks (Carlia ailanpalai [Curious Skink], Emoia caeruleocauda [Pacific Bluetailed Skink]) using glueboards placed on the ground in the shade for 3 h on rainless mornings, yielding 10,286 skink captures. We additionally monitored two species of nocturnal arboreal geckos (Hemidactylus frenatus [Common House Gecko]; Lepidodactylus lugubris [Mourning Gecko]) on the basis of 15,212 sightings. We compared these count samples to a series of complete censuses we conducted from four or more total removal plots (everything removed to mineral soil) totaling 400 m2(about 1% of study site) in each of the years 1995, 1999, and 2012, providing time-stamped quantification of detectability for each species. Unfortunately, the actual population trajectories taken by the four species were masked by unexplained variation in detectability. This observation of debilitating latent variability in lizard detectability under nearly ideal conditions undercuts our trust in population estimation techniques that fail to quantify venue-specific detectability, rely on pooled detection probability estimates, or assume that modulation in predefined environmental covariates suffices for estimating detectability.

Dynamic behavior monitoring and damage evaluation for arch bridge suspender using GFRP optical fiber Bragg grating sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dongsheng; Zhou, Zhi; Ou, Jinping

2012-06-01

Suspenders, as the main bearing components in an arch bridge, can only manage to serve for about tens of years, or even a few years due to the influences of corrosion and fatigue load. This paper proposes a method of testing the suspender dynamic behavior with optical fiber Bragg grating sensors embedded in the glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP-OFBGS). Firstly, layout method of FRP-OFBGS among the suspender and protection technology are studied, and the self-monitoring smart suspender is developed. Secondly, stretching experiments were carried out on the smart suspender. The test experimental results demonstrated that the whole procedure of the stretching test can be perfectly monitored. Finally, the self-monitoring smart suspender successfully was applied in Ebian Bridge to monitor the strain history of suspenders under traffic load, and traffic effect to suspenders with various lengths and to different steel strands of a single suspender. Based on the monitoring data, the arch bridge suspenders fatigue damage dynamic evaluation methods and calculation results were given. The field monitoring results demonstrated that, the self-monitoring smart suspender mentioned in this paper is capable of monitoring suspender dynamic response and possible fatigue damages.

Use of PCR-DGGE Based Molecular Methods to Analyse Microbial Community Diversity and Stability during the Thermophilic Stages of an ATAD Wastewater Sludge Treatment Process as an Aid to Performance Monitoring

PubMed Central

Piterina, Anna V.; Pembroke, J. Tony

2013-01-01

PCR and PCR-DGGE techniques have been evaluated to monitor biodiversity indexes within an ATAD (autothermal thermophilic aerobic digestion) system treating domestic sludge for land spread, by examining microbial dynamics in response to elevated temperatures during treatment. The ATAD process utilises a thermophilic population to generate heat and operates at elevated pH due to degradation of sludge solids, thus allowing pasteurisation and stabilisation of the sludge. Genera-specific PCR revealed that Archaea, Eukarya and Fungi decline when the temperature reaches 59°C, while the bacterial lineage constitutes the dominant group at this stage. The bacterial community at the thermophilic stage, its similarity index to the feed material, and the species richness present were evaluated by PCR-DGGE. Parameters such as choice of molecular target (16S rDNA or rpoB genes), and electrophoresis condition, were optimised to maximise the resolution of the method for ATAD. Dynamic analysis of microbial communities was best observed utilising PCR-DGGE analysis of the V6-V8 region of 16S rDNA, while rpoB gene profiles were less informative. Unique thermophilic communities were shown to quickly adapt to process changes, and shown to be quite stable during the process. Such techniques may be used as a monitoring technique for process health and efficiency. PMID:25937969

Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti and dengue as influenced by weather and human behavior in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Barrera, Roberto; Amador, Manuel; MacKay, Andrew J

2011-12-01

Previous studies on the influence of weather on Aedes aegypti dynamics in Puerto Rico suggested that rainfall was a significant driver of immature mosquito populations and dengue incidence, but mostly in the drier areas of the island. We conducted a longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti in two neighborhoods of the metropolitan area of San Juan city, Puerto Rico where rainfall is more uniformly distributed throughout the year. We assessed the impacts of rainfall, temperature, and human activities on the temporal dynamics of adult Ae. aegypti and oviposition. Changes in adult mosquitoes were monitored with BG-Sentinel traps and oviposition activity with CDC enhanced ovitraps. Pupal surveys were conducted during the drier and wetter parts of the year in both neighborhoods to determine the contribution of humans and rains to mosquito production. Mosquito dynamics in each neighborhood was compared with dengue incidence in their respective municipalities during the study. Our results showed that: 1. Most pupae were produced in containers managed by people, which explains the prevalence of adult mosquitoes at times when rainfall was scant; 2. Water meters were documented for the first time as productive habitats for Ae. aegypti; 3. Even though Puerto Rico has a reliable supply of tap water and an active tire recycling program, water storage containers and discarded tires were important mosquito producers; 4. Peaks in mosquito density preceded maximum dengue incidence; and 5. Ae. aegypti dynamics were driven by weather and human activity and oviposition was significantly correlated with dengue incidence.

Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Dengue as Influenced by Weather and Human Behavior in San Juan, Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Barrera, Roberto; Amador, Manuel; MacKay, Andrew J.

2011-01-01

Previous studies on the influence of weather on Aedes aegypti dynamics in Puerto Rico suggested that rainfall was a significant driver of immature mosquito populations and dengue incidence, but mostly in the drier areas of the island. We conducted a longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti in two neighborhoods of the metropolitan area of San Juan city, Puerto Rico where rainfall is more uniformly distributed throughout the year. We assessed the impacts of rainfall, temperature, and human activities on the temporal dynamics of adult Ae. aegypti and oviposition. Changes in adult mosquitoes were monitored with BG-Sentinel traps and oviposition activity with CDC enhanced ovitraps. Pupal surveys were conducted during the drier and wetter parts of the year in both neighborhoods to determine the contribution of humans and rains to mosquito production. Mosquito dynamics in each neighborhood was compared with dengue incidence in their respective municipalities during the study. Our results showed that: 1. Most pupae were produced in containers managed by people, which explains the prevalence of adult mosquitoes at times when rainfall was scant; 2. Water meters were documented for the first time as productive habitats for Ae. aegypti; 3. Even though Puerto Rico has a reliable supply of tap water and an active tire recycling program, water storage containers and discarded tires were important mosquito producers; 4. Peaks in mosquito density preceded maximum dengue incidence; and 5. Ae. aegypti dynamics were driven by weather and human activity and oviposition was significantly correlated with dengue incidence. PMID:22206021

Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics

PubMed Central

Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul Chafee; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (lambda =1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (lambda = 0.98) over the next twenty years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles. PMID:27859120

Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul C.; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles.

Assembly and turnover of neurofilaments in growing axonal neurites.

PubMed

Boumil, Edward F; Vohnoutka, Rishel; Lee, Sangmook; Pant, Harish; Shea, Thomas B

2018-01-26

Neurofilaments (NFs) are thought to provide stability to the axon. We examined NF dynamics within axonal neurites of NB2a/d1 neuroblastoma by transient transfection with green fluorescent protein-tagged NF-heavy (GFP-H) under the control of a tetracycline-inducible promoter. Immunofluorescent and biochemical analyses demonstrated that GFP-H expressed early during neurite outgrowth associated with a population of centrally-situated, highly-phosphorylated crosslinked NFs along the length of axonal neurites ('bundled NFs'). By contrast, GFP-H expressed after considerable neurite outgrowth displayed markedly reduced association with bundled NFs and was instead more evenly distributed throughout the axon. This differential localization was maintained for up to 2 weeks in culture. Once considerable neurite outgrowth had progressed, GFP that had previously associated with the NF bundle during early expression was irreversibly depleted by photobleaching. Cessation of expression allowed monitoring of NF turnover. GFP-H associated bundled NFs underwent slower decay than GFP-H associated with surrounding, less-phosphorylated NFs. Notably, GFP associated with bundled NFs underwent similar decay rates within the core and edges of this bundle. These results are consistent with previous demonstration of a resident NF population within axonal neurites, but suggest that this population is more dynamic than previously considered. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Assembly and turnover of neurofilaments in growing axonal neurites

PubMed Central

Boumil, Edward F.; Vohnoutka, Rishel; Lee, Sangmook; Pant, Harish

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Neurofilaments (NFs) are thought to provide stability to the axon. We examined NF dynamics within axonal neurites of NB2a/d1 neuroblastoma by transient transfection with green fluorescent protein-tagged NF-heavy (GFP-H) under the control of a tetracycline-inducible promoter. Immunofluorescent and biochemical analyses demonstrated that GFP-H expressed early during neurite outgrowth associated with a population of centrally-situated, highly-phosphorylated crosslinked NFs along the length of axonal neurites (‘bundled NFs’). By contrast, GFP-H expressed after considerable neurite outgrowth displayed markedly reduced association with bundled NFs and was instead more evenly distributed throughout the axon. This differential localization was maintained for up to 2 weeks in culture. Once considerable neurite outgrowth had progressed, GFP that had previously associated with the NF bundle during early expression was irreversibly depleted by photobleaching. Cessation of expression allowed monitoring of NF turnover. GFP-H associated bundled NFs underwent slower decay than GFP-H associated with surrounding, less-phosphorylated NFs. Notably, GFP associated with bundled NFs underwent similar decay rates within the core and edges of this bundle. These results are consistent with previous demonstration of a resident NF population within axonal neurites, but suggest that this population is more dynamic than previously considered. PMID:29158321

Monitoring of Batch Industrial Crystallization with Growth, Nucleation, and Agglomeration. Part 1: Modeling with Method of Characteristics.

PubMed

Porru, Marcella; Özkan, Leyla

2017-05-24

This paper develops a new simulation model for crystal size distribution dynamics in industrial batch crystallization. The work is motivated by the necessity of accurate prediction models for online monitoring purposes. The proposed numerical scheme is able to handle growth, nucleation, and agglomeration kinetics by means of the population balance equation and the method of characteristics. The former offers a detailed description of the solid phase evolution, while the latter provides an accurate and efficient numerical solution. In particular, the accuracy of the prediction of the agglomeration kinetics, which cannot be ignored in industrial crystallization, has been assessed by comparing it with solutions in the literature. The efficiency of the solution has been tested on a simulation of a seeded flash cooling batch process. Since the proposed numerical scheme can accurately simulate the system behavior more than hundred times faster than the batch duration, it is suitable for online applications such as process monitoring tools based on state estimators.

Monitoring of Batch Industrial Crystallization with Growth, Nucleation, and Agglomeration. Part 1: Modeling with Method of Characteristics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This paper develops a new simulation model for crystal size distribution dynamics in industrial batch crystallization. The work is motivated by the necessity of accurate prediction models for online monitoring purposes. The proposed numerical scheme is able to handle growth, nucleation, and agglomeration kinetics by means of the population balance equation and the method of characteristics. The former offers a detailed description of the solid phase evolution, while the latter provides an accurate and efficient numerical solution. In particular, the accuracy of the prediction of the agglomeration kinetics, which cannot be ignored in industrial crystallization, has been assessed by comparing it with solutions in the literature. The efficiency of the solution has been tested on a simulation of a seeded flash cooling batch process. Since the proposed numerical scheme can accurately simulate the system behavior more than hundred times faster than the batch duration, it is suitable for online applications such as process monitoring tools based on state estimators. PMID:28603342

Geographic information system as country-level development and monitoring tool, Senegal example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Donald G.; Howard, Stephen M.; ,

1990-01-01

Geographic information systems (GIS) allow an investigator the capability to merge and analyze numerous types of country-level resource data. Hypothetical resource analysis applications in Senegal were conducted to illustrate the utility of a GIS for development planning and resource monitoring. Map and attribute data for soils, vegetation, population, infrastructure, and administrative units were merged to form a database within a GIS. Several models were implemented using a GIS to: analyze development potential for sustainable dryland agriculture; prioritize where agricultural development should occur based upon a regional food budget; and monitor dynamic events with remote sensing. The steps for implementing a GIS analysis are described and illustrated, and the use of a GIS for conducting an economic analysis is outlined. Using a GIS for analysis and display of results opens new methods of communication between resource scientists and decision makers. Analyses yielding country-wide map output and detailed statistical data for each level of administration provide the advantage of a single system that can serve a variety of users.

Presence/absence as a metric for monitoring vertebrate populations

Treesearch

Len Ruggiero; Dean Pearson

2000-01-01

Developing cost effective methods for monitoring vertebrate populations is a persistent problem in wildlife biology. Population demographic data is too costly and time intensive to acquire, so researchers have begun investigating presence/absence sampling as a means for monitoring wildlife populations. We examined three important assumptions regarding the probability...

A distributed scheme to manage the dynamic coexistence of IEEE 802.15.4-based health-monitoring WBANs.

PubMed

Deylami, Mohammad N; Jovanov, Emil

2014-01-01

The overlap of transmission ranges between wireless networks as a result of mobility is referred to as dynamic coexistence. The interference caused by coexistence may significantly affect the performance of wireless body area networks (WBANs) where reliability is particularly critical for health monitoring applications. In this paper, we analytically study the effects of dynamic coexistence on the operation of IEEE 802.15.4-based health monitoring WBANs. The current IEEE 802.15.4 standard lacks mechanisms for effectively managing the coexistence of mobile WBANs. Considering the specific characteristics and requirements of health monitoring WBANs, we propose the dynamic coexistence management (DCM) mechanism to make IEEE 802.15.4-based WBANs able to detect and mitigate the harmful effects of coexistence. We assess the effectiveness of this scheme using extensive OPNET simulations. Our results indicate that DCM improves the successful transmission rates of dynamically coexisting WBANs by 20%-25% for typical medical monitoring applications.

The conservation relevance of epidemiological research into carnivore viral diseases in the serengeti.

PubMed

Cleaveland, Sarah; Mlengeya, Titus; Kaare, Magai; Haydon, Dan; Lembo, Tiziana; Laurenson, M Karen; Packer, Craig

2007-06-01

Recent outbreaks of rabies and canine distemper in wildlife populations of the Serengeti show that infectious disease constitutes a significant cause of mortality that can result in regional extirpation of endangered species even within large, well-protected areas. Nevertheless, effective management of an infectious disease depends critically on understanding the epidemiological dynamics of the causative pathogen. Pathogens with short infection cycles cannot persist in small populations in the absence of a more permanent reservoir of infection. Development of appropriate interventions requires detailed data on transmission pathways between reservoirs and wildlife populations of conservation concern. Relevant data can be derived from long-term population monitoring, epidemic and case-surveillance patterns, genetic analyses of rapidly evolving pathogens, serological surveys, and intervention studies. We examined studies of carnivore diseases in the Serengeti. Epidemiological research contributes to wildlife conservation policy in terms of management of endangered populations and the integration of wildlife conservation with public health interventions. Long-term, integrative, cross-species research is essential for formulation of effective policy for disease control and optimization of ecosystem health.

Mortality estimate of Chinese mystery snail, Bellamya chinensis (Reeve, 1863) in a Nebraska reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haak, Danielle M.; Chaine, Noelle M.; Stephen, Bruce J.; Wong, Alec; Allen, Craig R.

2013-01-01

The Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) is an aquatic invasive species found throughout the USA. Little is known about this species’ life history or ecology, and only one population estimate has been published, for Wild Plum Lake in southeast Nebraska. A recent die-off event occurred at this same reservoir and we present a mortality estimate for this B. chinensis population using a quadrat approach. Assuming uniform distribution throughout the newly-exposed lake bed (20,900 m2), we estimate 42,845 individuals died during this event, amounting to approximately 17% of the previously-estimated population size of 253,570. Assuming uniform distribution throughout all previously-reported available habitat (48,525 m2), we estimate 99,476 individuals died, comprising 39% of the previously-reported adult population. The die-off occurred during an extreme drought event, which was coincident with abnormally hot weather. However, the exact reason of the die-off is still unclear. More monitoring of the population dynamics of B. chinensis is necessary to further our understanding of this species’ ecology.

Telomere dynamics in wild brown trout: effects of compensatory growth and early growth investment.

PubMed

Näslund, Joacim; Pauliny, Angela; Blomqvist, Donald; Johnsson, Jörgen I

2015-04-01

After a period of food deprivation, animals often respond with a period of faster than normal growth. Such responses have been suggested to result in decreased chromosomal maintenance, which in turn may affect the future fitness of an individual. Here, we present a field experiment in which a food deprivation period of 24 days was enforced on fish from a natural population of juvenile brown trout (Salmo trutta) at the start of the high-growth season in spring. The growth of the food-deprived fish and a non-deprived control group was then monitored in the wild during 1 year. Fin tissue samples were taken at the start of the experiment and 1 year after food deprivation to monitor the telomere dynamics, using reduced telomere length as an indicator of maintenance cost. The food-deprived fish showed partial compensatory growth in both mass and length relative to the control group. However, we found no treatment effects on telomere dynamics, suggesting that growth-compensating brown trout juveniles are able to maintain their telomeres during their second year in the stream. However, body size at the start of the experiment, reflecting growth rate during their first year of life, was negatively correlated with change in telomere length over the following year. This result raises the possibility that rapid growth early in life induces delayed costs in cellular maintenance.

Developing an ecosystem perspective from experimental monitoring programs: I. Demographic responses of a rare geothermal grass to soil temperature.

PubMed

Pavlik, B M; Enberg, A

2001-08-01

The geysers panic grass [Dichanthelium lanuginosum Spellenberg var. thermale (Bol.) Spellenberg or DILA] is exclusively associated with surface geothermal manifestations in Sonoma County, California, USA (38 degrees 46'N, 122 degrees 38'W). Steam extraction by power plants could alter the subsurface distribution of heat and water to the site, potentially impacting subpopulations of this rare plant. The purpose of this study was to use demographic monitoring to determine: (1) temporal and spatial patterns of soil temperature in relation to the distribution of established DILA individuals at Little Geysers, (2) in situ response of experimental populations of DILA to spatial variations in soil temperature, and (3) habitat requirements of DILA as an indicator of its tolerance to variations in surficial geothermal features. Thermocouple transects and a datalogger provided data for characterizing the spatial and temporal patterns of soil temperature in four microhabitats (fumarole, DILA stand, Andropogon stand, and cleared). Experimental populations were established by precisely sowing and monitoring DILA seeds in these microhabitats. The results indicated that spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature had significant effects on the processes of germination, growth, survivorship, and reproduction, thus producing a readily observed metapopulation patch dynamic in relation to geothermal activity. Seasonal depressions of soil temperature near the fumaroles by cold air and prolonged rainfall events also promoted the emergence and survival of DILA seedlings in a microhabitat that was previously too hot to occupy. Over longer periods of time, DILA metapopulation dynamism reflected climatic and geothermal variation. Drought years inhibited germination for lack of water, but more importantly for the lack of requisite soil temperature depressions in the fumarole microhabitat. Wet years promoted subpopulation expansion into transition areas that were once too hot and dry. There have also been shifts in the underground distribution of steam into areas distant from known geothermal features. The demographic responses of DILA to spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature indicate that heat is an absolutely essential component of the steam resource. In its absence, germination, seeding survivorship, growth, and maturation are significantly inhibited even if soil conditions are favorable and potential competitors are controlled. Ultimately, persistence of the species depends on maintaining the ecosystem dynamic of colonization and extirpation in response to variations in surficial geothermal features over long spatial and temporal scales. This should shift management perspective from its narrow focus on individual plants to a wider focus on monitoring the essential habitat component of steam.

A statistical framework for the validation of a population exposure model based on personal exposure data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Delphy; Valari, Myrto; Markakis, Konstantinos; Payan, Sébastien

2016-04-01

Currently, ambient pollutant concentrations at monitoring sites are routinely measured by local networks, such as AIRPARIF in Paris, France. Pollutant concentration fields are also simulated with regional-scale chemistry transport models such as CHIMERE (http://www.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere) under air-quality forecasting platforms (e.g. Prev'Air http://www.prevair.org) or research projects. These data may be combined with more or less sophisticated techniques to provide a fairly good representation of pollutant concentration spatial gradients over urban areas. Here we focus on human exposure to atmospheric contaminants. Based on census data on population dynamics and demographics, modeled outdoor concentrations and infiltration of outdoor air-pollution indoors we have developed a population exposure model for ozone and PM2.5. A critical challenge in the field of population exposure modeling is model validation since personal exposure data are expensive and therefore, rare. However, recent research has made low cost mobile sensors fairly common and therefore personal exposure data should become more and more accessible. In view of planned cohort field-campaigns where such data will be available over the Paris region, we propose in the present study a statistical framework that makes the comparison between modeled and measured exposures meaningful. Our ultimate goal is to evaluate the exposure model by comparing modeled exposures to monitor data. The scientific question we address here is how to downscale modeled data that are estimated on the county population scale at the individual scale which is appropriate to the available measurements. To assess this question we developed a Bayesian hierarchical framework that assimilates actual individual data into population statistics and updates the probability estimate.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Aphids (Hemiptera: Aphididae) in the Columbia Basin and Northeastern Oregon.

PubMed

Klein, Mathew L; Rondon, Silvia I; Walenta, Darrin L; Zeb, Qamar; Murphy, Alexzandra F

2017-08-01

Aphid species, such as the potato aphid, Macrosiphum euphorbiae Thomas, and the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae Sulzer, are routinely considered the most important pests of potatoes. Potato aphid, green peach aphid, and more recently, other aphids such as the bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi L. have been identified as vectors of multiple plant pathogenic viruses in potatoes. Since 2006, an area-wide trapping network consisting of ∼60 sites was developed through collaboration between researchers, extension faculty, and stakeholders, to monitor aphid populations in the Columbia Basin of Oregon (Umatilla and Morrow counties) and in northeastern Oregon (Union and Baker counties). Over a 9-yr period (2006 to 2014), aphid specimens were collected weekly using yellow bucket traps and specimens were then identified and counted to determine population levels during the growing season (May-September). Thus, aphid population data were compiled and subjected to spatial and temporal distribution analysis. Weather data, obtained from an established network of weather stations located in the monitoring areas, were used in a nonparametric multiplicative regression analysis to determine which abiotic variables may impact aphid populations. Weather conditions were characterized using confidence intervals (CIs) established based on weather data from 1999 to 2005 for each environmental variable. Aphid populations were found to have a heterogeneous distribution in most years; a few sites had high aphid populations while low numbers were observed at most sites; aphids were also found to correlate with several abiotic variables, namely, elevation, previous season temperature, and previous season dew point. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

PubMed

Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

2011-01-01

Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of imperiled species.

Dynamic data filtering system and method

DOEpatents

Bickford, Randall L; Palnitkar, Rahul M

2014-04-29

A computer-implemented dynamic data filtering system and method for selectively choosing operating data of a monitored asset that modifies or expands a learned scope of an empirical model of normal operation of the monitored asset while simultaneously rejecting operating data of the monitored asset that is indicative of excessive degradation or impending failure of the monitored asset, and utilizing the selectively chosen data for adaptively recalibrating the empirical model to more accurately monitor asset aging changes or operating condition changes of the monitored asset.

Long-term spatial heterogeneity in mallard distribution in the Prairie pothole region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Janke, Adam K.; Anteau, Michael J.; Stafford, Joshua D.

2017-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of north-central United States and south-central Canada supports greater than half of all breeding mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) annually counted in North America and is the focus of widespread conservation and research efforts. Allocation of conservation resources for this socioeconomically important population would benefit from an understanding of the nature of spatiotemporal variation in distribution of breeding mallards throughout the 850,000 km2 landscape. We used mallard counts from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey to test for spatial heterogeneity and identify high- and low-abundance regions of breeding mallards over a 50-year time series. We found strong annual spatial heterogeneity in all years: 90% of mallards counted annually were on an average of only 15% of surveyed segments. Using a local indicator of spatial autocorrelation, we found a relatively static distribution of low-count clusters in northern Montana, USA, and southern Alberta, Canada, and a dynamic distribution of high-count clusters throughout the study period. Distribution of high-count clusters shifted southeast from northwestern portions of the PPR in Alberta and western Saskatchewan, Canada, to North and South Dakota, USA, during the latter half of the study period. This spatial redistribution of core mallard breeding populations was likely driven by interactions between environmental variation that created favorable hydrological conditions for wetlands in the eastern PPR and dynamic land-use patterns related to upland cropping practices and government land-retirement programs. Our results highlight an opportunity for prioritizing relatively small regions within the PPR for allocation of wetland and grassland conservation for mallard populations. However, the extensive spatial heterogeneity in core distributions over our study period suggests such spatial prioritization will have to overcome challenges presented by dynamic land-use and climate patterns in the region, and thus merits additional monitoring and empirical research to anticipate future population distribution. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

River dolphins can act as population trend indicators in degraded freshwater systems.

PubMed

Turvey, Samuel T; Risley, Claire L; Barrett, Leigh A; Yujiang, Hao; Ding, Wang

2012-01-01

Conservation attention on charismatic large vertebrates such as dolphins is often supported by the suggestion that these species represent surrogates for wider biodiversity, or act as indicators of ecosystem health. However, their capacity to act as indicators of patterns or trends in regional biodiversity has rarely been tested. An extensive new dataset of >300 last-sighting records for the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji and two formerly economically important fishes, the Yangtze paddlefish and Reeves' shad, all of which are probably now extinct in the Yangtze, was collected during an interview survey of fishing communities across the middle-lower Yangtze drainage. Untransformed last-sighting date frequency distributions for these species show similar decline curves over time, and the linear gradients of transformed last-sighting date series are not significantly different from each other, demonstrating that these species experienced correlated population declines in both timing and rate of decline. Whereas species may be expected to respond differently at the population level even in highly degraded ecosystems, highly vulnerable (e.g. migratory) species can therefore display very similar responses to extrinsic threats, even if they represent otherwise very different taxonomic, biological and ecological groupings. Monitoring the status of river dolphins or other megafauna therefore has the potential to provide wider information on the status of other threatened components of sympatric freshwater biotas, and so represents a potentially important monitoring tool for conservation management. We also show that interview surveys can provide robust quantitative data on relative population dynamics of different species.

Copper in indigenous and transplanted zebra mussels in relation to changing water concentrations and body weight

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mersch, J.; Wagner, P.; Pihan, J.C.

Zebra mussels, Dreissena polymorpha, were collected monthly from a copper-contaminated reservoir over a period of nearly 3 years. Copper concentrations in the organisms showed marked fluctuations reflecting changes in the water contamination. Bioconcentration patterns were influenced by the specific capacity of this sentinel organism to biologically integrate the continuously evolving water pollution; the sampling pattern, which inevitably introduced a certain subjectivity into monitoring results; and weight changes in the animals within the yearly cycle. Consequently, the successive monthly indications obtained with the zebra mussels provided a current biological assessment of a complex dynamic contamination situation. In a second experiment, cagedmore » mussels from three different populations were transferred for 3 months into the reservoir and sampled on six occasions. Mortality rates, attachment capacity, and a condition index revealed no substantial fitness disturbances in the transplanted organisms. Differences in dry weight throughout the experiment were attributable to the initial characteristics of each population. The influence of body mass on monitoring results was eliminated by replacing copper concentrations ({micro}g/g dry weight) with copper burdens ({micro}g/specimen). In terms of copper burdens, the three transplanted populations exhibited very similar metal patterns. Moderate quantitative differences between introduced and indigenous populations were interpreted as the result of physiological adaptation of the indigenous mussels to their contaminated environment. This study showed that the transfer technique with D. polymorpha is a useful tool for active biomonitoring programs.« less

Sex-specific early survival drives adult sex ratio bias in snowy plovers and impacts mating system and population growth

PubMed Central

Küpper, Clemens; Miller, Tom E. X.; Cruz-López, Medardo; Maher, Kathryn H.; dos Remedios, Natalie; Stoffel, Martin A.; Hoffman, Joseph I.; Krüger, Oliver; Székely, Tamás

2017-01-01

Adult sex ratio (ASR) is a central concept in population biology and a key factor in sexual selection, but why do most demographic models ignore sex biases? Vital rates often vary between the sexes and across life history, but their relative contributions to ASR variation remain poorly understood—an essential step to evaluate sex ratio theories in the wild and inform conservation. Here, we combine structured two-sex population models with individual-based mark–recapture data from an intensively monitored polygamous population of snowy plovers. We show that a strongly male-biased ASR (0.63) is primarily driven by sex-specific survival of juveniles rather than adults or dependent offspring. This finding provides empirical support for theories of unbiased sex allocation when sex differences in survival arise after the period of parental investment. Importantly, a conventional model ignoring sex biases significantly overestimated population viability. We suggest that sex-specific population models are essential to understand the population dynamics of sexual organisms: reproduction and population growth are most sensitive to perturbations in survival of the limiting sex. Overall, our study suggests that sex-biased early survival may contribute toward mating system evolution and population persistence, with implications for both sexual selection theory and biodiversity conservation. PMID:28634289

Monitoring trends in bat populations of the United States and territories: Problems and prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Bogan, M. A.

2003-01-01

Bats are ecologically and economically important mammals. The life histories of bats (particularly their low reproductive rates and the need for some species to gather in large aggregations at limited numbers of roosting sites) make their populations vulnerable to declines. Many of the species of bats in the United States (U.S.) and territories are categorized as endangered or threatened, have been candidates for such categories, or are considered species of concern. The importance and vulnerability of bat populations makes monitoring trends in their populations a goal for their future management. However, scientifically rigorous monitoring of bat populations requires well-planned, statistically defensible efforts. This volume reports findings of an expert workshop held to examine the topic of monitoring populations of bats. The workshop participants included leading experts in sampling and analysis of wildlife populations, as well as experts in the biology and conservation of bats. Findings are reported in this volume under two sections. Part I of the report presents contributed papers that provide overviews of past and current efforts at monitoring trends in populations of bats in the U.S. and territories. These papers consider current techniques and problems, and summarize what is known about the status and trends in populations of selected groups of bats. The contributed papers in Part I also include a description of the monitoring program developed for bat populations in the United Kingdom, a critique of monitoring programs in wildlife in general with recommendations for survey and sampling strategies, and a compilation and analysis of existing data on trends in bats of the U.S. and territories. Efforts directed at monitoring bat populations are piecemeal and have shortcomings. In Part II of the report, the workshop participants provide critical analyses of these problems and develop recommendations for improving methods, defining objectives and priorities, gaining mandates, and enhancing information exchange to facilitate future efforts for monitoring trends in U.S. bat populations.

Trust-Based Access Control Model from Sociological Approach in Dynamic Online Social Network Environment

PubMed Central

Kim, Seungjoo

2014-01-01

There has been an explosive increase in the population of the OSN (online social network) in recent years. The OSN provides users with many opportunities to communicate among friends and family. Further, it facilitates developing new relationships with previously unknown people having similar beliefs or interests. However, the OSN can expose users to adverse effects such as privacy breaches, the disclosing of uncontrolled material, and the disseminating of false information. Traditional access control models such as MAC, DAC, and RBAC are applied to the OSN to address these problems. However, these models are not suitable for the dynamic OSN environment because user behavior in the OSN is unpredictable and static access control imposes a burden on the users to change the access control rules individually. We propose a dynamic trust-based access control for the OSN to address the problems of the traditional static access control. Moreover, we provide novel criteria to evaluate trust factors such as sociological approach and evaluate a method to calculate the dynamic trust values. The proposed method can monitor negative behavior and modify access permission levels dynamically to prevent the indiscriminate disclosure of information. PMID:25374943

Interactive visualization of vegetation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, B.C.; Swets, D.; Bard, L.; Brown, J.; Rowland, James

2001-01-01

Satellite imagery provides a mechanism for observing seasonal dynamics of the landscape that have implications for near real-time monitoring of agriculture, forest, and range resources. This study illustrates a technique for visualizing timely information on key events during the growing season (e.g., onset, peak, duration, and end of growing season), as well as the status of the current growing season with respect to the recent historical average. Using time-series analysis of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor, seasonal dynamics can be derived. We have developed a set of Java-based visualization and analysis tools to make comparisons between the seasonal dynamics of the current year with those from the past twelve years. In addition, the visualization tools allow the user to query underlying databases such as land cover or administrative boundaries to analyze the seasonal dynamics of areas of their own interest. The Java-based tools (data exploration and visualization analysis or DEVA) use a Web-based client-server model for processing the data. The resulting visualization and analysis, available via the Internet, is of value to those responsible for land management decisions, resource allocation, and at-risk population targeting.

Trust-based access control model from sociological approach in dynamic online social network environment.

PubMed

Baek, Seungsoo; Kim, Seungjoo

2014-01-01

There has been an explosive increase in the population of the OSN (online social network) in recent years. The OSN provides users with many opportunities to communicate among friends and family. Further, it facilitates developing new relationships with previously unknown people having similar beliefs or interests. However, the OSN can expose users to adverse effects such as privacy breaches, the disclosing of uncontrolled material, and the disseminating of false information. Traditional access control models such as MAC, DAC, and RBAC are applied to the OSN to address these problems. However, these models are not suitable for the dynamic OSN environment because user behavior in the OSN is unpredictable and static access control imposes a burden on the users to change the access control rules individually. We propose a dynamic trust-based access control for the OSN to address the problems of the traditional static access control. Moreover, we provide novel criteria to evaluate trust factors such as sociological approach and evaluate a method to calculate the dynamic trust values. The proposed method can monitor negative behavior and modify access permission levels dynamically to prevent the indiscriminate disclosure of information.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Vibrational bone characteristics versus bone density for the assessment of osteoporosis in ovariectomized rats.

PubMed

Anastassopoulos, G; Panteliou, S; Christopoulou, G; Stavropoulou, A; Panagiotopoulos, E; Lyritis, G; Khaldi, Lubna; Varakis, J; Karamanos, N

2010-01-01

Our previous research findings suggested this integrated study in order to monitor changes of bone properties and assess bone integrity using vibrational characteristics in osteoporosis. The method is based on measurement of the bone dynamic characteristic modal damping factor (MDF). The experimental animal model is ovariectomized rat followed by alendronate treatment. According to the experimental design, adult female Wistar rats are ovariectomized and 60 days later, with confirmed osteoporosis, the population is divided into two groups. One is administered alendronate and the second is given no treatment. Furthermore, established techniques such as pQCT and histomorphometry are applied at all time points, in order to compare and correlate to MDF. The results indicate induction of osteoporosis due to ovariectomy and render MDF capable of monitoring changes in bone material properties and architecture, with high sensitivity and repeatability.

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) infestations using decade-long agrometeorological time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Susanna; Guidotti, Diego; Ricciolini, Massimo; Petacchi, Ruggero

2016-11-01

Insect dynamics depend on temperature patterns, and therefore, global warming may lead to increasing frequencies and intensities of insect outbreaks. The aim of this work was to analyze the dynamics of the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), in Tuscany (Italy). We profited from long-term records of insect infestation and weather data available from the regional database and agrometeorological network. We tested whether the analysis of 13 years of monitoring campaigns can be used as basis for prediction models of B. oleae infestation. We related the percentage of infestation observed in the first part of the host-pest interaction and throughout the whole year to agrometeorological indices formulated for different time periods. A two-step approach was adopted to inspect the effect of weather on infestation: generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and principal component regression to reduce the number of the agrometeorological factors and remove their collinearity. We found a consistent relationship between the degree of infestation and the temperature-based indices calculated for the previous period. The relationship was stronger with the minimum temperature of winter season. Higher infestation was observed in years following warmer winters. The temperature of the previous winter and spring explained 66 % of variance of early-season infestation. The temperature of previous winter and spring, and current summer, explained 72 % of variance of total annual infestation. These results highlight the importance of multiannual monitoring activity to fully understand the dynamics of B. oleae populations at a regional scale.

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) infestations using decade-long agrometeorological time series.

PubMed

Marchi, Susanna; Guidotti, Diego; Ricciolini, Massimo; Petacchi, Ruggero

2016-11-01

Insect dynamics depend on temperature patterns, and therefore, global warming may lead to increasing frequencies and intensities of insect outbreaks. The aim of this work was to analyze the dynamics of the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), in Tuscany (Italy). We profited from long-term records of insect infestation and weather data available from the regional database and agrometeorological network. We tested whether the analysis of 13 years of monitoring campaigns can be used as basis for prediction models of B. oleae infestation. We related the percentage of infestation observed in the first part of the host-pest interaction and throughout the whole year to agrometeorological indices formulated for different time periods. A two-step approach was adopted to inspect the effect of weather on infestation: generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and principal component regression to reduce the number of the agrometeorological factors and remove their collinearity. We found a consistent relationship between the degree of infestation and the temperature-based indices calculated for the previous period. The relationship was stronger with the minimum temperature of winter season. Higher infestation was observed in years following warmer winters. The temperature of the previous winter and spring explained 66 % of variance of early-season infestation. The temperature of previous winter and spring, and current summer, explained 72 % of variance of total annual infestation. These results highlight the importance of multiannual monitoring activity to fully understand the dynamics of B. oleae populations at a regional scale.

Conceptualising population health: from mechanistic thinking to complexity science.

PubMed

Jayasinghe, Saroj

2011-01-20

The mechanistic interpretation of reality can be traced to the influential work by René Descartes and Sir Isaac Newton. Their theories were able to accurately predict most physical phenomena relating to motion, optics and gravity. This paradigm had at least three principles and approaches: reductionism, linearity and hierarchy. These ideas appear to have influenced social scientists and the discourse on population health. In contrast, Complexity Science takes a more holistic view of systems. It views natural systems as being 'open', with fuzzy borders, constantly adapting to cope with pressures from the environment. These are called Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). The sub-systems within it lack stable hierarchies, and the roles of agency keep changing. The interactions with the environment and among sub-systems are non-linear interactions and lead to self-organisation and emergent properties. Theoretical frameworks such as epi+demos+cracy and the ecosocial approach to health have implicitly used some of these concepts of interacting dynamic sub-systems. Using Complexity Science we can view population health outcomes as an emergent property of CAS, which has numerous dynamic non-linear interactions among its interconnected sub-systems or agents. In order to appreciate these sub-systems and determinants, one should acquire a basic knowledge of diverse disciplines and interact with experts from different disciplines. Strategies to improve health should be multi-pronged, and take into account the diversity of actors, determinants and contexts. The dynamic nature of the system requires that the interventions are constantly monitored to provide early feedback to a flexible system that takes quick corrections.

Time-dependent view of an isotope effect in electron-nuclear nonequilibrium dynamics with applications to N2.

PubMed

Ajay, Jayanth S; Komarova, Ksenia G; Remacle, Francoise; Levine, R D

2018-06-05

Isotopic fractionation in the photodissociation of N 2 could explain the considerable variation in the 14 N/ 15 N ratio in different regions of our galaxy. We previously proposed that such an isotope effect is due to coupling of photoexcited bound valence and Rydberg electronic states in the frequency range where there is strong state mixing. We here identify features of the role of the mass in the dynamics through a time-dependent quantum-mechanical simulation. The photoexcitation of N 2 is by an ultrashort pulse so that the process has a sharply defined origin in time and so that we can monitor the isolated molecule dynamics in time. An ultrafast pulse is necessarily broad in frequency and spans several excited electronic states. Each excited molecule is therefore not in a given electronic state but in a superposition state. A short time after excitation, there is a fairly sharp onset of a mass-dependent large population transfer when wave packets on two different electronic states in the same molecule overlap. This coherent overlap of the wave packets on different electronic states in the region of strong coupling allows an effective transfer of population that is very mass dependent. The extent of the transfer depends on the product of the populations on the two different electronic states and on their relative phase. It is as if two molecules collide but the process occurs within one molecule, a molecule that is simultaneously in both states. An analytical toy model recovers the (strong) mass and energy dependence.

Self-calibrating models for dynamic monitoring and diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuipers, Benjamin

1996-01-01

A method for automatically building qualitative and semi-quantitative models of dynamic systems, and using them for monitoring and fault diagnosis, is developed and demonstrated. The qualitative approach and semi-quantitative method are applied to monitoring observation streams, and to design of non-linear control systems.

Drug-induced cellular death dynamics monitored by a highly sensitive organic electrochemical system.

PubMed

Romeo, Agostino; Tarabella, Giuseppe; D'Angelo, Pasquale; Caffarra, Cristina; Cretella, Daniele; Alfieri, Roberta; Petronini, Pier Giorgio; Iannotta, Salvatore

2015-06-15

We propose and demonstrate a sensitive diagnostic device based on an Organic Electrochemical Transistor (OECT) for direct in-vitro monitoring cell death. The system efficiently monitors cell death dynamics, being able to detect signals related to specific death mechanisms, namely necrosis or early/late apoptosis, demonstrating a reproducible correlation between the OECT electrical response and the trends of standard cell death assays. The innovative design of the Twell-OECT system has been modeled to better correlate electrical signals with cell death dynamics. To qualify the device, we used a human lung adenocarcinoma cell line (A549) that was cultivated on the micro-porous membrane of a Transwell (Twell) support, and exposed to the anticancer drug doxorubicin. Time-dependent and dose-dependent dynamics of A549 cells exposed to doxorubicin are evaluated by monitoring cell death upon exposure to a range of doses and times that fully covers the protocols used in cancer treatment. The demonstrated ability to directly monitor cell stress and death dynamics upon drug exposure using simple electronic devices and, possibly, achieving selectivity to different cell dynamics is of great interest for several application fields, including toxicology, pharmacology, and therapeutics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trans-Boundary Edge Effects in the Western Carpathians: The Influence of Hunting on Large Carnivore Occupancy.

PubMed

Kutal, Miroslav; Váňa, Martin; Suchomel, Josef; Chapron, Guillaume; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-01-01

The conservation and management of wolves Canis lupus in the periphery of their distribution is challenging. Edges of wolf distribution are characterized by very few and intermittent occurrences of individuals, which are modulated by multiple factors affecting the overall population such as human-caused mortality, management targets and food availability. The knowledge of population dynamics in the edges becomes crucial when hunting takes place nearby the edges, which may preclude population expansion. Here, using as example the occurrence of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains (Czech-Slovak border), which are the edge distribution of the wolf and Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx populations in the West Carpathians, we explored how food availability and hunting in the Slovakian core area affected the dynamics of wolves in the edges of this population. During 2003-2012, we monitored large carnivore occurrence by snow-tracking surveys and tested potential differences in the occurrence of these species in Beskydy Mountains and potential mechanisms behind detected patterns. Despite the proximity to the core area, with several wolf reproductions being confirmed at least in recent years, the wolf was a very rare species in Beskydy and was recorded 14 times less often than the lynx. The expected abundance of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains was inversely related to prey availability in the Slovakian core area. Wolf hunting the year before influenced the expected abundance of wolves in Beskydy area. We discuss how different life histories and legal status of both species probably account for most of the observed difference of occurrence at range margins.

Trans-Boundary Edge Effects in the Western Carpathians: The Influence of Hunting on Large Carnivore Occupancy

PubMed Central

Váňa, Martin; Suchomel, Josef; Chapron, Guillaume; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-01-01

The conservation and management of wolves Canis lupus in the periphery of their distribution is challenging. Edges of wolf distribution are characterized by very few and intermittent occurrences of individuals, which are modulated by multiple factors affecting the overall population such as human-caused mortality, management targets and food availability. The knowledge of population dynamics in the edges becomes crucial when hunting takes place nearby the edges, which may preclude population expansion. Here, using as example the occurrence of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains (Czech-Slovak border), which are the edge distribution of the wolf and Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx populations in the West Carpathians, we explored how food availability and hunting in the Slovakian core area affected the dynamics of wolves in the edges of this population. During 2003–2012, we monitored large carnivore occurrence by snow-tracking surveys and tested potential differences in the occurrence of these species in Beskydy Mountains and potential mechanisms behind detected patterns. Despite the proximity to the core area, with several wolf reproductions being confirmed at least in recent years, the wolf was a very rare species in Beskydy and was recorded 14 times less often than the lynx. The expected abundance of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains was inversely related to prey availability in the Slovakian core area. Wolf hunting the year before influenced the expected abundance of wolves in Beskydy area. We discuss how different life histories and legal status of both species probably account for most of the observed difference of occurrence at range margins. PMID:28002475

Spatio-temporal spawning and larval dynamics of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in a North Texas Reservoir: implications for invasions in the southern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Churchill, Christopher John

2013-01-01

Zebra mussels were first observed in Texas in 2009 in a reservoir (Lake Texoma) on the Texas-Oklahoma border. In 2012, an established population was found in a near-by reservoir, Ray Roberts Lake, and in June 2013, settled mussels were detected in a third north Texas reservoir, Lake Lewisville. An established population was detected in Belton Lake in September 2013. With the exception of Louisiana, these occurrences in Texas mark the current southern extent of the range of this species in the United States. Previous studies indicate that zebra mussel populations could be affected by environmental conditions, especially increased temperatures and extreme droughts, which are characteristic of surface waters of the southern and southwestern United States. Data collected during the first three years (2010–12) of a long-term monitoring program were analyzed to determine if spatio-temporal zebra mussel spawning and larval dynamics were related to physicochemical water properties in Lake Texoma. Reproductive output of the local population was significantly related to water temperature and lake elevation. Estimated mean date of first spawn in Lake Texoma was approximately 1.5 months earlier and peak veliger densities were observed two months earlier than in Lake Erie. Annual maximum veliger density declined significantly during the study period (p < 0.0001). A population crash occurred as a result of thermal stress and variability of lake elevation. In summer 2011, water temperatures peaked at 34.3°C and lake elevation declined to the lowest level recorded during the previous 18 years, which resulted in desiccation of substantial numbers of settled mussels in littoral zones. Veliger spatial distributions were associated with physicochemical stratification characteristics. Veligers were observed in the deepest oxygenated water after lake stratification, which occurred in late spring. Results of this study indicate environmental conditions can influence variability of population sizes and spatial distributions of zebra mussels along the current southern frontier of their geographic range. Although the future population size trajectory and geographic range are uncertain, increased temperatures and intermittent, extreme droughts likely will affect spatio-temporal dynamics of established populations if zebra mussels spread farther into the southern and southwestern United States.

Evaluation of mist-netting, nest-searching and other methods for monitoring demographic processes in landbird populations

Treesearch

Nadav Nur; Geoffrey R. Geupel

1993-01-01

Demographic processes (reproductive success, survival of young and adults, recruitment of young into the breeding population) are critical to monitoring and managing landbird populations. We discuss different techniques that have been used to monitor these demographic processes in landbird populations, focusing on constant-effort mist-netting (CEM). We assess whether...

A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming.

PubMed

Cotto, Olivier; Wessely, Johannes; Georges, Damien; Klonner, Günther; Schmid, Max; Dullinger, Stefan; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guillaume, Frédéric

2017-05-05

Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species' local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species' extinction risks under climate change.

Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

PubMed

Strier, Karen B; Possamai, Carla B; Tabacow, Fernanda P; Pissinatti, Alcides; Lanna, Andre M; Rodrigues de Melo, Fabiano; Moreira, Leandro; Talebi, Maurício; Breves, Paula; Mendes, Sérgio L; Jerusalinsky, Leandro

2017-01-01

Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles) using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs) and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus) and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides). In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

In vivo optoacoustic monitoring of calcium activity in the brain (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deán-Ben, Xose Luís.; Gottschalk, Sven; Sela, Gali; Lauri, Antonella; Kneipp, Moritz; Ntziachristos, Vasilis; Westmeyer, Gil G.; Shoham, Shy; Razansky, Daniel

2017-03-01

Non-invasive observation of spatio-temporal neural activity of large neural populations distributed over the entire brain of complex organisms is a longstanding goal of neuroscience [1,2]. Recently, genetically encoded calcium indicators (GECIs) have revolutionized neuroimaging by enabling mapping the activity of entire neuronal populations in vivo [3]. Visualization of these powerful sensors with fluorescence microscopy has however been limited to superficial regions while deep brain areas have so far remained unreachable [4]. We have developed a volumetric multispectral optoacoustic tomography platform for imaging neural activation deep in scattering brains [5]. The developed methodology can render 100 volumetric frames per second across scalable fields of view ranging between 50-1000 mm3 with respective spatial resolution of 35-150µm. Experiments performed in immobilized and freely swimming larvae and in adult zebrafish brains expressing the genetically-encoded calcium indicator GCaMP5G demonstrated, for the first time, the fundamental ability to directly track neural dynamics using optoacoustics while overcoming the depth barrier of optical imaging in scattering brains [6]. It was further possible to monitor calcium transients in a scattering brain of a living adult transgenic zebrafish expressing GCaMP5G calcium indicator [7]. Fast changes in optoacoustic traces associated to GCaMP5G activity were detectable in the presence of other strongly absorbing endogenous chromophores, such as hemoglobin. The results indicate that the optoacoustic signal traces generally follow the GCaMP5G fluorescence dynamics and further enable overcoming the longstanding optical-diffusion penetration barrier associated to scattering in biological tissues [6]. The new functional optoacoustic neuroimaging method can visualize neural activity at penetration depths and spatio-temporal resolution scales not covered with the existing neuroimaging techniques. Thus, in addition to the well-established capacity of optoacoustics to resolve vascular anatomy and multiple hemodynamic parameters deep in scattering tissues, the newly developed methodology offers unprecedented capabilities for functional whole brain observations of fast calcium dynamics.

Rebuilding after collapse: evidence for long-term cohort dynamics in the native Hawaiian rain forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boehmer, Hans Juergen; Wagner, Helene H.; Jacobi, James D.; Gerrish, Grant C.; Mueller-Dombois, Dieter

2013-01-01

Questions: Do long-term observations in permanent plots confirm the conceptual model of Metrosideros polymorpha cohort dynamics as postulated in 1987? Do regeneration patterns occur independently of substrate age, i.e. of direct volcanic disturbance impact? Location: The windward mountain slopes of the younger Mauna Loa and the older Mauna Kea volcanoes (island of Hawaii, USA). Methods: After widespread forest decline (dieback), permanent plots were established in 1976 in 13 dieback and 13 non-dieback patches to monitor the population structure of M. polymorpha at ca. 5-yr intervals. Within each plot of 20 × 20 m, all trees with DBH >2.5 cm were individually tagged, measured and tree vigour assessed; regeneration was quantified in 16 systematically placed subplots of 3 × 5 m. Data collected in the subplots included the total number of M. polymorpha seedlings and saplings (five stem height classes). Here we analyse monitoring data from six time steps from 1976 to 2003 using repeated measures ANOVA to test specific predictions derived from the 1987 conceptual model. Results: Regeneration was significantly different between dieback and non-dieback plots. In dieback plots, the collapse in the 1970s was followed by a ‘sapling wave’ that by 2003 led to new cohort stands of M. polymorpha. In non-dieback stands, seedling emergence did not result in sapling waves over the same period. Instead, a ‘sapling gap’ (i.e. very few or no M. polymorpha saplings) prevailed as typical for mature stands. Canopy dieback in 1976, degree of recovery by 2003 and the number of living trees in 2003 were unrelated to substrate age. Conclusions: Population development of M. polymorpha supports the cohort dynamics model, which predicts rebuilding of the forest with the same canopy species after dieback. The lack of association with substrate age suggests that the long-term maintenance of cohort structure in M. polymorpha does not depend on volcanic disturbance but may be related to other environmental mechanisms, such as climate anomalies.

Fish and fire: Post-wildfire sediment dynamics and implications for the viability of trout populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, B. P.; Czuba, J. A.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.; Finch, C.

2017-12-01

Episodic events in steep landscapes, such as wildfire and mass wasting, contribute large pulses of sediment to rivers and can significantly alter the quality and connectivity of fish habitat. Understanding where these sediment inputs occur, how they are transported and processed through the watershed, and their geomorphic effect on the river network is critical to predicting the impact on ecological aquatic communities. The Tushar Mountains of southern Utah experienced a severe wildfire in 2010, resulting in numerous debris flows and the extirpation of trout populations. Following many years of habitat and ecological monitoring in the field, we have developed a modeling framework that links post-wildfire debris flows, fluvial sediment routing, and population ecology in order to evaluate the impact and response of trout to wildfire. First, using the Tushar topographic and wildfire parameters, as well as stochastic precipitation generation, we predict the post-wildfire debris flow probabilities and volumes of mainstem tributaries using the Cannon et al. [2010] model. This produces episodic hillslope sediment inputs, which are delivered to a fluvial sediment, river-network routing model (modified from Czuba et al. [2017]). In this updated model, sediment transport dynamics are driven by time-varying discharge associated with the stochastic precipitation generation, include multiple grain sizes (including gravel), use mixed-size transport equations (Wilcock & Crowe [2003]), and incorporate channel slope adjustments with aggradation and degradation. Finally, with the spatially explicit adjustments in channel bed elevation and grain size, we utilize a new population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict the impact and recovery of fish populations in response to these changes in habitat. Our model provides a generalizable framework for linking physical and ecological models and for evaluating the extirpation risk of isolated fish populations throughout the Intermountain West to the increasing threat of wildfire.

The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

2002-01-01

This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

Population collapse dynamics in Acropora downingi, an Arabian/Persian Gulf ecosystem-engineering coral, linked to rising temperature.

PubMed

Riegl, Bernhard; Johnston, Matthew; Purkis, Sam; Howells, Emily; Burt, John; Steiner, Sascha C C; Sheppard, Charles R C; Bauman, Andrew

2018-03-05

As in the tropical Atlantic, Acropora populations in the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf plummeted within two decades after having been ecosystem engineers on most wave-exposed reefs since the Pleistocene. Since 1996/1998 live coral cover in the Gulf declined by over 90% in many areas, primarily due to bleaching and diseases caused by rising temperatures. In the formerly dominant table-coral species A. downingi, population dynamics corresponding to disturbance regimes was quantified in three transition matrices (lower disturbance pre-1996; moderate disturbance from 1998 to 2010 and 2013 to 2017, disturbed in 1996/1998, 2010/11/12, 2017). Increased disturbance frequency and severity caused progressive reduction in coral size, cover, and population fecundity. Small size-classes were bolstered more by partial colony mortality than sexual recruitment. Some large corals had a size refuge and resisted die-back but were also lost with increasing disturbance. Matrix and biophysical larval flow models suggested one metapopulation. Southern, Arabian, populations could be connected to northern, Iranian, populations but this connectivity was lost under assumptions of pelagic larval duration at rising temperatures shortened to a third. Then, the metapopulation disintegrated into isolated populations. Connectivity required to avoid extinctions increased exponentially with disturbance frequency and correlation of disturbances across the metapopulation. Populations became unsustainable at eight disturbances in 15 years, when even highest theoretical recruitment no longer compensated mortality. This lethal disturbance frequency was 3-fold that of the moderately disturbed monitoring period and 4-fold of the preceding low-disturbance period-suggesting ongoing shortening of the disturbance-free period. Observed population collapse and environmental changes in the Gulf suggest that A. downingi is heading toward at least functional extinction mainly due to increasingly frequent temperature-induced mortality events, clearly linked to climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of space weather on human organism at different geo-latitudes: telecommunication helio-medical monitoring "Geliomed" 2003-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragulskaya, Maria; Obridko, Vladimir; Samsonov, Sergey; Vitaliy, Vishnevskey; Grigoryev, Pavel; Valeriy, Pipin; Khabarova, Olga

We discuss the results of the long-term telecommunicative biogeophysical monitoring "Geliomed" (2003-2010). The purpose is to explore the effects of spatial and temporal variations in space weather and climatic factors on the human health state. The monitoring is carried out simultaneously at the different geographical areas that covers the different latitudes. The project developed in the joint collaboration the Ukrainian National Academy of Science and the Russian Academy of Science. The experiment carried out simultaneously in Moscow, Yakutsk, Kiev and Simferopol. The principal components of the experiment can be summarized as follows: 1. Equipments and data gathering methods are the same for all the scientific cen-ters which are involved in experiment. Research centers working with the same equipment and using the same protocols with on-line registration of current data on same portal server (http//geliomed.immsp.kiev.ua) 2. The groups of patients involved in the program are kept the same for the whole observational period of time. 3. The daily registered parameters in-clude: psycho-emotional tests and 1-st lead ECG (contain 25 000 measurements for the whole period), arterial pressure (100 000 measurements), variability cardiac contraction (25000 mea-surements), electric conduction of bioactive points on skin (more than 500 000 measurements for the whole period ). 4. The every patient in the monitoring group is examined at the 4 functional states. Registration is done at rest, after standard psychology test, Roufiet test, and after 10 min relax. 5. The data of the ECG measurements are analyzed in the phase space constructed from the signal and its derivative. 6. The results time series were compared with daily values of space weather and geomagnetic parameters. Results. In the all monitoring centers all the patients involved in the monitoring show the same type of changes in the cardiac activity parameters during an isolated magnetic storm. Such a change of the ECG parameters occurs nearly simultaneously for all the centers. The higher latitude, the greater amplitude of the ECG parameters change. The properties of the detected phenomena can be summarized as follows: -The dynamics of adaptation programs changes during the storm. The maximum amplitude of change is observed for the healthy patients. -The number of none-typical ECG beats increase; -There are no clear evidences for variations of RR intervals during geomagnetic storms. -Man are more sensitive to magnetic storms, while endogenous rhythms predominate for females; Additionally, we find, that the embedding of ECG time series in 3D phase space can be considered as a mix of a few states. At the rest, the occurrence of the basic ECG state compare to additional ones is about 8:2. The occurrence of the basic state increases after the stress. Thus, the external stress may change the relative disorder of the system. To understand the origin of the standard cardio-cycle changes we reconstruct of the dynamical model of the individual cardiac beat. The reconstruction reveals that the typical evolution of the cardiac rhythm includes the drift of attractor in the embedding space and the sudden change between a few basic patterns of attractor. However one of pattern is always dominating. These several pattern of ECG beat attractor can be ascribed to a several states of the system. Qualitatively, the nonlinear ECG dynamics is defined by the stationary points, which are inside into Q and T waves. Conclusions: many-year telecommunication heliomedical monitoring in different lat-itudes showed, that space and geophysical factor act as a training factor for the adaptation-resistant member of the population. It serve as a channel for rejection of nonviable members of the population, synchronize the total populations rhythms, create conditions for generation of new information in the process of evolution adaptation of biological systems in general.

Dynamic Radioactive Source for Evaluating and Demonstrating Time-dependent Performance of Continuous Air Monitors.

PubMed

McLean, Thomas D; Moore, Murray E; Justus, Alan L; Hudston, Jonathan A; Barbé, Benoît

2016-11-01

Evaluation of continuous air monitors in the presence of a plutonium aerosol is time intensive, expensive, and requires a specialized facility. The Radiation Protection Services Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory has designed a Dynamic Radioactive Source, intended to replace plutonium aerosol challenge testing. The Dynamic Radioactive Source is small enough to be inserted into the sampler filter chamber of a typical continuous air monitor. Time-dependent radioactivity is introduced from electroplated sources for real-time testing of a continuous air monitor where a mechanical wristwatch motor rotates a mask above an alpha-emitting electroplated disk source. The mask is attached to the watch's minute hand, and as it rotates, more of the underlying source is revealed. The measured alpha activity increases with time, simulating the arrival of airborne radioactive particulates at the air sampler inlet. The Dynamic Radioactive Source allows the temporal behavior of puff and chronic release conditions to be mimicked without the need for radioactive aerosols. The new system is configurable to different continuous air monitor designs and provides an in-house testing capability (benchtop compatible). It is a repeatable and reusable system and does not contaminate the tested air monitor. Test benefits include direct user control, realistic (plutonium) aerosol spectra, and iterative development of continuous air monitor alarm algorithms. Data obtained using the Dynamic Radioactive Source has been used to elucidate alarm algorithms and to compare the response time of two commercial continuous air monitors.

Dynamic Radioactive Source for Evaluating and Demonstrating Time-dependent Performance of Continuous Air Monitors

DOE PAGES

McLean, Thomas D.; Moore, Murray E.; Justus, Alan L.; ...

2016-01-01

Evaluation of continuous air monitors in the presence of a plutonium aerosol is time intensive, expensive, and requires a specialized facility. The Radiation Protection Services Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory has designed a Dynamic Radioactive Source, intended to replace plutonium aerosol challenge testing. Furthermore, the Dynamic Radioactive Source is small enough to be inserted into the sampler filter chamber of a typical continuous air monitor. Time-dependent radioactivity is introduced from electroplated sources for real-time testing of a continuous air monitor where a mechanical wristwatch motor rotates a mask above an alpha-emitting electroplated disk source. The mask is attached tomore » the watch’s minute hand, and as it rotates, more of the underlying source is revealed. The alpha activity we measured increases with time, simulating the arrival of airborne radioactive particulates at the air sampler inlet. The Dynamic Radioactive Source allows the temporal behavior of puff and chronic release conditions to be mimicked without the need for radioactive aerosols. The new system is configurable to different continuous air monitor designs and provides an in-house testing capability (benchtop compatible). It is a repeatable and reusable system and does not contaminate the tested air monitor. Test benefits include direct user control, realistic (plutonium) aerosol spectra, and iterative development of continuous air monitor alarm algorithms. We also used data obtained using the Dynamic Radioactive Source to elucidate alarm algorithms and to compare the response time of two commercial continuous air monitors.« less

Inference for finite-sample trajectories in dynamic multi-state site-occupancy models using hidden Markov model smoothing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, Ian J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Gross, Kevin

2014-01-01

Ecologists and wildlife biologists increasingly use latent variable models to study patterns of species occurrence when detection is imperfect. These models have recently been generalized to accommodate both a more expansive description of state than simple presence or absence, and Markovian dynamics in the latent state over successive sampling seasons. In this paper, we write these multi-season, multi-state models as hidden Markov models to find both maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters and finite-sample estimators of the trajectory of the latent state over time. These estimators are especially useful for characterizing population trends in species of conservation concern. We also develop parametric bootstrap procedures that allow formal inference about latent trend. We examine model behavior through simulation, and we apply the model to data from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program.

Synchronous monitoring of muscle dynamics and muscle force for maximum isometric tetanus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakir Hossain, M.; Grill, Wolfgang

2010-03-01

Skeletal muscle is a classic example of a biological soft matter . At both macro and microscopic levels, skeletal muscle is exquisitely oriented for force generation and movement. In addition to the dynamics of contracting and relaxing muscle which can be monitored with ultrasound, variations in the muscle force are also expected to be monitored. To observe such force and sideways expansion variations synchronously for the skeletal muscle a novel detection scheme has been developed. As already introduced for the detection of sideways expansion variations of the muscle, ultrasonic transducers are mounted sideways on opposing positions of the monitored muscle. To detect variations of the muscle force, angle of pull of the monitored muscle has been restricted by the mechanical pull of the sonic force sensor. Under this condition, any variation in the time-of-flight (TOF) of the transmitted ultrasonic signals can be introduced by the variation of the path length between the transducers. The observed variations of the TOF are compared to the signals obtained by ultrasound monitoring for the muscle dynamics. The general behavior of the muscle dynamics and muscle force shows almost an identical concept. Since muscle force also relates the psychological boosting-up effects, the influence of boosting-up on muscle force and muscle dynamics can also be quantified form this study. Length-tension or force-length and force-velocity relationship can also be derived quantitatively with such monitoring.

Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence

PubMed Central

Medeiros, Líliam César de Castro; Castilho, César Augusto Rodrigues; Braga, Cynthia; de Souza, Wayner Vieira; Regis, Leda; Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira

2011-01-01

Background Dengue is a disease of great complexity, due to interactions between humans, mosquitoes and various virus serotypes as well as efficient vector survival strategies. Thus, understanding the factors influencing the persistence of the disease has been a challenge for scientists and policy makers. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of various factors related to humans and vectors in the maintenance of viral transmission during extended periods. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a stochastic cellular automata model to simulate the spread of dengue fever in a dense community. Each cell can correspond to a built area, and human and mosquito populations are individually monitored during the simulations. Human mobility and renewal, as well as vector infestation, are taken into consideration. To investigate the factors influencing the maintenance of viral circulation, two sets of simulations were performed: (1st) varying human renewal rates and human population sizes and (2nd) varying the house index (fraction of infested buildings) and vector per human ratio. We found that viral transmission is inhibited with the combination of small human populations with low renewal rates. It is also shown that maintenance of viral circulation for extended periods is possible at low values of house index. Based on the results of the model and on a study conducted in the city of Recife, Brazil, which associates vector infestation with Aedes aegytpi egg counts, we question the current methodology used in calculating the house index, based on larval survey. Conclusions/Significance This study contributed to a better understanding of the dynamics of dengue subsistence. Using basic concepts of metapopulations, we concluded that low infestation rates in a few neighborhoods ensure the persistence of dengue in large cities and suggested that better strategies should be implemented to obtain measures of house index values, in order to improve the dengue monitoring and control system. PMID:21264356

Modeling the fish community population dynamics and forecasting the eradication success of an exotic fish from an alpine stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laplanche, Christophe; Elger, Arnaud; Santoul, Frédéric; Thiede, Gary P.; Budy, Phaedra

2018-01-01

Management actions aimed at eradicating exotic fish species from riverine ecosystems can be better informed by forecasting abilities of mechanistic models. We illustrate this point with an example of the Logan River, Utah, originally populated with endemic cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii utah), which compete with exotic brown trout (Salmo trutta). The coexistence equilibrium was disrupted by a large scale, experimental removal of the exotic species in 2009–2011 (on average, 8.2% of the stock each year), followed by an increase in the density of the native species. We built a spatially-explicit, reaction-diffusion model encompassing four key processes: population growth in heterogeneous habitat, competition, dispersal, and a management action. We calibrated the model with detailed long-term monitoring data (2001–2016) collected along the 35.4-km long river main channel. Our model, although simple, did a remarkable job reproducing the system steady state prior to the management action. Insights gained from the model independent predictions are consistent with available knowledge and indicate that the exotic species is more competitive; however, the native species still occupies more favorable habitat upstream. Dynamic runs of the model also recreated the observed increase of the native species following the management action. The model can simulate two possible distinct long-term outcomes: recovery or eradication of the exotic species. The processing of available knowledge using Bayesian methods allowed us to conclude that the chance for eradication of the invader was low at the beginning of the experimental removal (0.7% in 2009) and increased (20.5% in 2016) by using more recent monitoring data. We show that accessible mathematical and numerical tools can provide highly informative insights for managers (e.g., outcome of their conservation actions), identify knowledge gaps, and provide testable theory for researchers.

Monitoring Urbanization-Related Land Cover Change on the U.S. Great Plains and Impacts on Remotely Sensed Vegetation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krehbiel, C. P.; Jackson, T.; Henebry, G. M.

2014-12-01

Earth is currently in an era of rapid urban growth with >50% of global population living in urban areas. Urbanization occurs alongside urban population growth, as cities expand to meet the demands of increasing population. Consequently, there is a need for remote sensing research to detect, monitor, and measure urbanization and its impacts on the biosphere. Here we used MODIS and Landsat data products to (1) detect urbanization-related land cover changes, (2) investigate urbanization-related impacts on land surface phenology (LSP) across rural to urban gradients and (3) explore fractional vegetation and impervious surface area regionally across the US Great Plains and within 14 cities in this region. We used the NLCD Percent Impervious Surface Area (%ISA) and Land Cover Type (LCT) products from 2001, 2006, and 2011 for 30m classification of the peri-urban environment. We investigated the impacts of urbanization-related land cover change on urban LSP at 30m resolution using the NDVI product from Web Enabled Landsat Data (http://weld.cr.usgs.gov) with accumulated growing degree-days calculated from first-order weather stations. We fitted convex quadratic LSP models to a decade (2003-2012) of observations to yield these phenometrics: modeled peak NDVI, time (thermal and calendar) to modeled peak, duration of season (DOS), and model fit. We compared our results to NDVI from MODIS NBAR (500m) and we explored the utility of 4 μm radiance (MODIS band 23) at 1 km resolution to characterize fractional vegetation dynamics in and around urbanized areas. Across all 14 cities we found increases in urbanized area (>25 %ISA) exceeding 10% from 2001-2011. Using LSP phenometrics, we were able to detect changes from cropland to suburban LCTs. In general we found negative relationships between DOS and distance from city center. We found a distinct seasonal cycle of MIR radiance over cropland LCTs due to the spectral contrast between bare soils and green vegetation.

Monitoring for Adaptive Management in Coniferous Forests of the Northern Rockies

Treesearch

Jock S. Young; John R. Hoffland; Richard L. Hutto

2005-01-01

Monitoring can and should be much more than the effort to track population trends; it can be a proactive effort to understand the effects of human activities on bird populations. It should be an integral part of the adaptive management process. With this in mind, the Northern Region Landbird Monitoring Program has a dual focus: (1) to monitor long-term bird population...

Landscape management challenges on the California Channel Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halvorson, William L.

1997-01-01

Managing for sustained biodiversity and restoration of natural habitat has become increasingly important over the last two decades, first as mitigation for development (especially in wetlands), and , more recently in natural areas. The latter has come about as land managing agencies like the Department of Defense and Bureau of Land Management have seen the need to reverse the impact of past land uses and agencies like the National Park Service and The Nature Conservancy have taken on the responsibility for less-than-pristine lands.On the California Channel Islands, the need for restoring and managing biodiversity is great, but this restoration and management needs to be based on a sound ecological understanding. By conducting surveys, implementing long-term research and monitoring, and by conducting population and community dynamics research, the necessary data to arrive at such an understanding can be obtained. Once management actions have been taken to effect restoration, monitoring needs to be conducted to determine the success of those actions. The need is to gain enough of an understanding of the islands' ecosystems that we can manage to restore, not just populations of native plants and animals, but also the processes of a naturally functioning ecosystem. The challenges that confront this goal are many and include ecology and popUlation biology, conservation ecology, information management, agency mandates and regulations, the need to build constituencies and consensus among disparate groups, financing, and political pressures.

Desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) survival at two eastern Mojave Desert sites: Death by short-term drought?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Longshore, Kathleen M.; Jaeger, Jef R.; Sappington, J. Mark

2003-01-01

Survival of adult Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) appears related to site-specific variation in precipitation and productivity of annual plants. We studied adult tortoise survival rates at two closely situated, but physiographically different, sites in the eastern Mojave Desert over a nine-year period (spring 1992 to spring 2001). Survival rates were initially derived from population surveys conducted over a three-year period and by radio-telemetry monitoring over a seven-year period beginning in 1994. After a period of initial stability, survival rates on the two sites diverged over the study period, and seven-year survival rates estimated from radio-telemetry monitoring were 0.900 and 0.269, respectively. A die-off in 1996 on the latter site appears to have been triggered by a period of drought, which began in the summer of 1995, coupled with a failure of annual vegetation production in 1996. Depressed survival rates on this site were associated with drought conditions during three of four years. Although the decline had the appearance of an epizootic, there were no clinical signs of disease. Relatively short-term drought, combined with little or no annual biomass, appears to have caused severe reductions in tortoise survival. If periods of drought-induced low survival are common over relatively small areas, then source-sink population dynamics may be an important factor determining tortoise population densities.

Multidisciplinary population monitoring when demographic data are sparse: a case study of remote trout populations

PubMed Central

Fraser, Dylan J; Calvert, Anna M; Bernatchez, Louis; Coon, Andrew

2013-01-01

The potential of genetic, genomic, and phenotypic metrics for monitoring population trends may be especially high in isolated regions, where traditional demographic monitoring is logistically difficult and only sporadic sampling is possible. This potential, however, is relatively underexplored empirically. Over eleven years, we assessed several such metrics along with traditional ecological knowledge and catch data in a socioeconomically important trout species occupying a large, remote lake. The data revealed largely stable characteristics in two populations over 2–3 generations, but possible contemporary changes in a third population. These potential shifts were suggested by reduced catch rates, reduced body size, and changes in selection implied at one gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphism. A demographic decline in this population, however, was ambiguously supported, based on the apparent lack of temporal change in effective population size, and corresponding traditional knowledge suggesting little change in catch. We illustrate how the pluralistic approach employed has practicality for setting future monitoring efforts of these populations, by guiding monitoring priorities according to the relative merits of different metrics and availability of resources. Our study also considers some advantages and disadvantages to adopting a pluralistic approach to population monitoring where demographic data are not easily obtained. PMID:24455128

When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

PubMed

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

2018-01-01

Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen science monitoring data unfolds the complex relationships between the environmental dynamics and range fluctuations of this food nomadic species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Jellyfish modulate bacterial dynamic and community structure.

PubMed

Tinta, Tinkara; Kogovšek, Tjaša; Malej, Alenka; Turk, Valentina

2012-01-01

Jellyfish blooms have increased in coastal areas around the world and the outbreaks have become longer and more frequent over the past few decades. The Mediterranean Sea is among the heavily affected regions and the common bloom-forming taxa are scyphozoans Aurelia aurita s.l., Pelagia noctiluca, and Rhizostoma pulmo. Jellyfish have few natural predators, therefore their carcasses at the termination of a bloom represent an organic-rich substrate that supports rapid bacterial growth, and may have a large impact on the surrounding environment. The focus of this study was to explore whether jellyfish substrate have an impact on bacterial community phylotype selection. We conducted in situ jellyfish-enrichment experiment with three different jellyfish species. Bacterial dynamic together with nutrients were monitored to assess decaying jellyfish-bacteria dynamics. Our results show that jellyfish biomass is characterized by protein rich organic matter, which is highly bioavailable to 'jellyfish-associated' and 'free-living' bacteria, and triggers rapid shifts in bacterial population dynamics and composition. Based on 16S rRNA clone libraries and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis, we observed a rapid shift in community composition from unculturable Alphaproteobacteria to culturable species of Gammaproteobacteria and Flavobacteria. The results of sequence analyses of bacterial isolates and of total bacterial community determined by culture independent genetic analysis showed the dominance of the Pseudoalteromonadaceae and the Vibrionaceae families. Elevated levels of dissolved proteins, dissolved organic and inorganic nutrient release, bacterial abundance and carbon production as well as ammonium concentrations characterized the degradation process. The biochemical composition of jellyfish species may influence changes in the amount of accumulated dissolved organic and inorganic nutrients. Our results can contribute insights into possible changes in bacterial population dynamics and nutrient pathways following jellyfish blooms which have important implications for ecology of coastal waters.

Diversity and dynamics of lactobacilli populations during ripening of RDO Camembert cheese.

PubMed

Henri-Dubernet, Ségolène; Desmasures, Nathalie; Guéguen, Micheline

2008-03-01

The diversity and dynamics of Lactobacillus populations in traditional raw milk Camembert cheese were monitored throughout the manufacturing process in 3 dairies. Culture-dependent analysis was carried out on isolates grown on acidified de Man - Rogosa - Sharpe agar and Lactobacillus anaerobic de Man Rogosa Sharpe agar supplemented with vancomycin and bromocresol green media. The isolates were identified by polymerase chain reaction - temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-TGGE) and (or) species-specific PCR and (or) sequencing, and Lactobacillus paracasei and Lactobacillus plantarum isolates were characterized by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Milk and cheese were subjected to culture-independent analysis by PCR-TGGE. Presumed lactobacilli were detected by plate counts throughout the ripening process. However, molecular analysis of total DNA and DNA of isolates failed to detect Lactobacillus spp. in certain cases. The dominant species in the 3 dairies was L. paracasei. PFGE analysis revealed 21 different profiles among 39 L. paracasei isolates. Lactobacillus plantarum was the second most isolated species, but it occurred nearly exclusively in one dairy. The other species isolated were Lactobacillus parabuchneri, Lactobacillus fermentum, Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus helveticus, a Lactobacillus psittaci/delbrueckii subsp. bulgaricus/gallinarum/crispatus group, Lactobacillus rhamnosus, Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp. bulgaricus, L. delbrueckii subsp. lactis, Lactobacillus brevis, Lactobacillus kefiri, and Lactobacillus perolens. Lactobacilli diversity at the strain level was high. Dynamics varied among dairies, and each cheese exhibited a specific picture of species and strains.

BRET-monitoring of the dynamic changes of inositol lipid pools in living cells reveals a PKC-dependent PtdIns4P increase upon EGF and M3 receptor activation.

PubMed

Tóth, József T; Gulyás, Gergő; Tóth, Dániel J; Balla, András; Hammond, Gerald R V; Hunyady, László; Balla, Tamás; Várnai, Péter

2016-03-01

Deciphering many roles played by inositol lipids in signal transduction and membrane function demands experimental approaches that can detect their dynamic accumulation with subcellular accuracy and exquisite sensitivity. The former criterion is met by imaging of fluorescence biosensors in living cells, whereas the latter is facilitated by biochemical measurements from populations. Here, we introduce BRET-based biosensors able to detect rapid changes in inositol lipids in cell populations with both high sensitivity and subcellular resolution in a single, convenient assay. We demonstrate robust and sensitive measurements of PtdIns4P, PtdIns(4,5)P2 and PtdIns(3,4,5)P3 dynamics, as well as changes in cytoplasmic Ins(1,4,5)P3 levels. Measurements were made during either experimental activation of lipid degradation, or PI 3-kinase and phospholipase C mediated signal transduction. Our results reveal a previously unappreciated synthesis of PtdIns4P that accompanies moderate activation of phospholipase C signaling downstream of both EGF and muscarinic M3 receptor activation. This signaling-induced PtdIns4P synthesis relies on protein kinase C, and implicates a feedback mechanism in the control of inositol lipid metabolism during signal transduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Outcomes of Interorganizational Networks in Canada for Chronic Disease Prevention: Insights From a Concept Mapping Study, 2015.

PubMed

Willis, Cameron; Kernoghan, Alison; Riley, Barbara; Popp, Janice; Best, Allan; Milward, H Brinton

2015-11-19

We conducted a mixed methods study from June 2014 to March 2015 to assess the perspectives of stakeholders in networks that adopt a population approach for chronic disease prevention (CDP). The purpose of the study was to identify important and feasible outcome measures for monitoring network performance. Participants from CDP networks in Canada completed an online concept mapping exercise, which was followed by interviews with network stakeholders to further understand the findings. Nine concepts were considered important outcomes of CDP networks: enhanced learning, improved use of resources, enhanced or increased relationships, improved collaborative action, network cohesion, improved system outcomes, improved population health outcomes, improved practice and policy planning, and improved intersectoral engagement. Three themes emerged from participant interviews related to measurement of the identified concepts: the methodological difficulties in measuring network outcomes, the dynamic nature of network evolution and function and implications for outcome assessment, and the challenge of measuring multisectoral engagement in CDP networks. Results from this study provide initial insights into concepts that can be used to describe the outcomes of networks for CDP and may offer foundations for strengthening network outcome-monitoring strategies and methodologies.

Outcomes of Interorganizational Networks in Canada for Chronic Disease Prevention: Insights From a Concept Mapping Study, 2015

PubMed Central

Kernoghan, Alison; Riley, Barbara; Popp, Janice; Best, Allan; Milward, H. Brinton

2015-01-01

Introduction We conducted a mixed methods study from June 2014 to March 2015 to assess the perspectives of stakeholders in networks that adopt a population approach for chronic disease prevention (CDP). The purpose of the study was to identify important and feasible outcome measures for monitoring network performance. Methods Participants from CDP networks in Canada completed an online concept mapping exercise, which was followed by interviews with network stakeholders to further understand the findings. Results Nine concepts were considered important outcomes of CDP networks: enhanced learning, improved use of resources, enhanced or increased relationships, improved collaborative action, network cohesion, improved system outcomes, improved population health outcomes, improved practice and policy planning, and improved intersectoral engagement. Three themes emerged from participant interviews related to measurement of the identified concepts: the methodological difficulties in measuring network outcomes, the dynamic nature of network evolution and function and implications for outcome assessment, and the challenge of measuring multisectoral engagement in CDP networks. Conclusion Results from this study provide initial insights into concepts that can be used to describe the outcomes of networks for CDP and may offer foundations for strengthening network outcome-monitoring strategies and methodologies. PMID:26583571

Insole optical fiber Bragg grating sensors network for dynamic vertical force monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domingues, Maria Fátima; Tavares, Cátia; Leitão, Cátia; Frizera-Neto, Anselmo; Alberto, Nélia; Marques, Carlos; Radwan, Ayman; Rodriguez, Jonathan; Postolache, Octavian; Rocon, Eduardo; André, Paulo; Antunes, Paulo

2017-09-01

In an era of unprecedented progress in technology and increase in population age, continuous and close monitoring of elder citizens and patients is becoming more of a necessity than a luxury. Contributing toward this field and enhancing the life quality of elder citizens and patients with disabilities, this work presents the design and implementation of a noninvasive platform and insole fiber Bragg grating sensors network to monitor the vertical ground reaction forces distribution induced in the foot plantar surface during gait and body center of mass displacements. The acquired measurements are a reliable indication of the accuracy and consistency of the proposed solution in monitoring and mapping the vertical forces active on the foot plantar sole, with a sensitivity up to 11.06 pm/N. The acquired measurements can be used to infer the foot structure and health condition, in addition to anomalies related to spine function and other pathologies (e.g., related to diabetes); also its application in rehabilitation robotics field can dramatically reduce the computational burden of exoskeletons' control strategy. The proposed technology has the advantages of optical fiber sensing (robustness, noninvasiveness, accuracy, and electromagnetic insensitivity) to surpass all drawbacks verified in traditionally used sensing systems (fragility, instability, and inconsistent feedback).

Air quality measurements and monitoring network in the Republic of Latvia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grinman, A.; Lyulko, J.; Dubrovskaja, R.

1996-12-31

The territory of Latvia is covered with a wide environmental monitoring network, that falls under 2 main categories: (1) regional network featuring the region and involved in international monitoring programs, including EMEP, GAW, IM; (2) state network providing for local pollution monitoring of the atmosphere (19 posts), precipitation (5 station) and radioactivity (46 station). In 1994, measurements were made at 20 stationary posts located in Daugavpils (2), Jekabpils (2), Jurmala, (2), Liepaja (2), Nigrande (1), Olaine (1), Rezekne (1), Riga (5), Valn-dera (2), Ventspils (2). This atmospheric air observation network covers mostly towns densely populated with industrial objects and othermore » pollutant emitting sources. Thus, the observation programs encompass measurements of pollutants that have higher concentrations in the ambient air. Results indicate that the annual pollution dynamics are closely connected with concentration fluctuations in the seasons. The sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide concentrations increased during the heating season in Jekabpils, Jurmala and Valmiera, i.e., in the town that have many small heating installations. The data obtained allow to trace a dependence of measurement values upon the location of the observational posts vis-a-vis the pollutant emitting sources.« less

Insole optical fiber Bragg grating sensors network for dynamic vertical force monitoring.

PubMed

Domingues, Maria Fátima; Tavares, Cátia; Leitão, Cátia; Frizera-Neto, Anselmo; Alberto, Nélia; Marques, Carlos; Radwan, Ayman; Rodriguez, Jonathan; Postolache, Octavian; Rocon, Eduardo; André, Paulo; Antunes, Paulo

2017-09-01

In an era of unprecedented progress in technology and increase in population age, continuous and close monitoring of elder citizens and patients is becoming more of a necessity than a luxury. Contributing toward this field and enhancing the life quality of elder citizens and patients with disabilities, this work presents the design and implementation of a noninvasive platform and insole fiber Bragg grating sensors network to monitor the vertical ground reaction forces distribution induced in the foot plantar surface during gait and body center of mass displacements. The acquired measurements are a reliable indication of the accuracy and consistency of the proposed solution in monitoring and mapping the vertical forces active on the foot plantar sole, with a sensitivity up to 11.06 ?? pm / N . The acquired measurements can be used to infer the foot structure and health condition, in addition to anomalies related to spine function and other pathologies (e.g., related to diabetes); also its application in rehabilitation robotics field can dramatically reduce the computational burden of exoskeletons’ control strategy. The proposed technology has the advantages of optical fiber sensing (robustness, noninvasiveness, accuracy, and electromagnetic insensitivity) to surpass all drawbacks verified in traditionally used sensing systems (fragility, instability, and inconsistent feedback).

Taking the Pulse of a Large Marine Ecosystem: An Inventory and Gap Analysis of Long-Term Recovery Monitoring Efforts in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robbins, C.; Baldera, A.; Spies, R.; Love, M. S.

2016-02-01

Discharges of hydrocarbons into a large marine ecosystem can cause acute and sub-lethal effects, resulting in a recovery of populations or habitats that could take years, even decades. Recovery from oil spill impacts is complicated by the vagaries of a dynamic marine ecosystem. A major challenge and need is establishing and sustaining an interdisciplinary monitoring and research program capable of tracking oil spill impacts and resource recovery within the context of an ever changing, chronically stressed ecosystem. Ocean Conservancy undertook an assessment to identify and prioritize data collection activities for tracking the recovery of species and habitats impacted by the BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. We inventoried more than 700 discrete monitoring efforts in the Gulf, identified gaps in coverage for priority species, habitats and ecosystem drivers in space and time and mapped the footprints of active monitoring activities for ease of communication. We will present an overview of our methods and findings from the inventory and gap analysis and discuss how scientists and resource managers can integrate these tools into study plans or adapt restoration decisions based on recovery trajectories or changes in ocean conditions.

Dormant Comets in the Near-Earth Asteroid Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mommert, Michael; Harris, Alan W.; Mueller, Michael; Hora, Joseph L.; Trilling, David E.; Knight, Matthew; Bottke, William F.; Thomas, Cristina; Delbo', Marco; Emery, Josh P.; Fazio, Giovanni; Smith, Howard A.

2015-11-01

The population of near-Earth objects comprises active comets and asteroids, covering a wide range of dynamical parameters and physical properties. Dormant (or extinct) comets, masquerading as asteroids, have long been suspected of supplementing the near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population. We present a search for asteroidal objects of cometary origin based on dynamical and physical considerations. Our study is based on albedos derived within the ExploreNEOs program and is extended by adding data from NEOWISE and the Akari asteroid catalog. We use a statistical approach to identify asteroids on orbits that resemble those of short-period near-Earth comets using the Tisserand parameter with respect to Jupiter, the aphelion distance, and the minimum orbital intersection distance with respect to Jupiter. We identify a total of 23 near-Earth asteroids from our sample that are likely to be dormant short-period near-Earth comets and, based on a de-biasing procedure applied to the cryogenic NEOWISE survey, estimate both magnitude-limited and size-limited fractions of the NEA population that are dormant short-period comets. We find that 0.3-3.3% of the NEA population with H <= 21, and 9(+2/-5)% of the population with diameters d >= 1 km, are dormant short-period near-Earth comets. We also present an observation program that utilizes the 1.8m Vatican Advanced Technology Telescope (VATT) on Mt. Graham, AZ, to identify dormant comet candidates and search for activity in these objects. Our targets are NEAs on comet-like orbits, based on the dynamical criteria derived in the above study, that are accessible with the VATT (V <= 22). We identify dormant comets based on their optical spectral slope, represented by V-R color measurements, as albedo measurements for most of these objects are not available. For each target we measure and monitor its V magnitude in order to reveal activity outbreaks. We also search for extended emission around our targets using deep imaging and a point-spread-function subtraction technique that allows us to obtain an upper limit on the dust production rate in each target. We present preliminary results from this program. This work is supported in part by funding from the Spitzer Science Center.

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Dynamic Task Optimization in Remote Diabetes Monitoring Systems.

PubMed

Suh, Myung-Kyung; Woodbridge, Jonathan; Moin, Tannaz; Lan, Mars; Alshurafa, Nabil; Samy, Lauren; Mortazavi, Bobak; Ghasemzadeh, Hassan; Bui, Alex; Ahmadi, Sheila; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

2012-09-01

Diabetes is the seventh leading cause of death in the United States, but careful symptom monitoring can prevent adverse events. A real-time patient monitoring and feedback system is one of the solutions to help patients with diabetes and their healthcare professionals monitor health-related measurements and provide dynamic feedback. However, data-driven methods to dynamically prioritize and generate tasks are not well investigated in the domain of remote health monitoring. This paper presents a wireless health project (WANDA) that leverages sensor technology and wireless communication to monitor the health status of patients with diabetes. The WANDA dynamic task management function applies data analytics in real-time to discretize continuous features, applying data clustering and association rule mining techniques to manage a sliding window size dynamically and to prioritize required user tasks. The developed algorithm minimizes the number of daily action items required by patients with diabetes using association rules that satisfy a minimum support, confidence and conditional probability thresholds. Each of these tasks maximizes information gain, thereby improving the overall level of patient adherence and satisfaction. Experimental results from applying EM-based clustering and Apriori algorithms show that the developed algorithm can predict further events with higher confidence levels and reduce the number of user tasks by up to 76.19 %.

Dynamic Task Optimization in Remote Diabetes Monitoring Systems

PubMed Central

Suh, Myung-kyung; Woodbridge, Jonathan; Moin, Tannaz; Lan, Mars; Alshurafa, Nabil; Samy, Lauren; Mortazavi, Bobak; Ghasemzadeh, Hassan; Bui, Alex; Ahmadi, Sheila; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

2016-01-01

Diabetes is the seventh leading cause of death in the United States, but careful symptom monitoring can prevent adverse events. A real-time patient monitoring and feedback system is one of the solutions to help patients with diabetes and their healthcare professionals monitor health-related measurements and provide dynamic feedback. However, data-driven methods to dynamically prioritize and generate tasks are not well investigated in the domain of remote health monitoring. This paper presents a wireless health project (WANDA) that leverages sensor technology and wireless communication to monitor the health status of patients with diabetes. The WANDA dynamic task management function applies data analytics in real-time to discretize continuous features, applying data clustering and association rule mining techniques to manage a sliding window size dynamically and to prioritize required user tasks. The developed algorithm minimizes the number of daily action items required by patients with diabetes using association rules that satisfy a minimum support, confidence and conditional probability thresholds. Each of these tasks maximizes information gain, thereby improving the overall level of patient adherence and satisfaction. Experimental results from applying EM-based clustering and Apriori algorithms show that the developed algorithm can predict further events with higher confidence levels and reduce the number of user tasks by up to 76.19 %. PMID:27617297

Developing a general conceptual framework for avian conservation science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.

2003-01-01

Avian conservation science in North America has produced a variety of monitoring programs designed to provide information on population status of birds. Waterfowl surveys provide population estimates for breeding ducks over most of the continent, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides indexes to population change for >400 breeding bird species, and many other surveys exist that index bird populations at a variety of scales and seasons. However, many fundamental questions about bird population change remain unanswered. I suggest that analyses of monitoring data provide limited understanding of causes of population change, and that the declining species paradigm (Caughley 1994) is sometimes an inefficient approach to increasing our understanding of causes of population change. In North America, the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) provides an opportunity to implement alternative approaches that use management, modeling of population responses to management, and monitoring in combination to increase our understanding of bird populations. In adaptive resources management, modeling provides predictions about consequences of management, and monitoring data allow us to assess the population consequences of management. In this framework, alternative hypotheses about response of populations to management can be evaluated by formulating a series of models with differing structure, and management and monitoring provide information about which model best predicts population response.

Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics.

PubMed

Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E Frances; Cross, Paul C; Plowright, Raina K; Hudson, Peter J

2016-10-01

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Costs of detection bias in index-based population monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, C.T.; Kendall, W.L.

2004-01-01

Managers of wildlife populations commonly rely on indirect, count-based measures of the population in making decisions regarding conservation, harvest, or control. The main appeal in the use of such counts is their low material expense compared to methods that directly measure the population. However, their correct use rests on the rarely-tested but often-assumed premise that they proportionately reflect population size, i.e., that they constitute a population index. This study investigates forest management for the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) and the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia, U.S.A. Optimal decision policies for a joint species objective were derived for two alternative models of Wood Thrush population dynamics. Policies were simulated under scenarios of unbiasedness, consistent negative bias, and habitat-dependent negative bias in observed Wood Thrush densities. Differences in simulation outcomes between biased and unbiased detection scenarios indicated the expected loss in resource objectives (here, forest habitat and birds) through decision-making based on biased population counts. Given the models and objective function used in our analysis, expected losses were as great as 11%, a degree of loss perhaps not trivial for applications such as endangered species management. Our analysis demonstrates that costs of uncertainty about the relationship between the population and its observation can be measured in units of the resource, costs which may offset apparent savings achieved by collecting uncorrected population counts.

Mapping, monitoring, and modeling Western Gateway Community landscape dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hester, David J.

2013-01-01

Federal public lands in the western United States are becoming increasingly surrounded by Gateway Communities. These communities are undergoing landscape change due to population growth, economic growth, and the resulting land-use development. Socioeconomic, demographic, and land-use changes in Gateway Communities are often perceived as threats to Federal land resources, natural amenities, cultural resources, and recreational opportunities. However, land-surface disturbances on Federal public lands, such as conventional and alternative energy development (which impact surrounding Gateway Communities), are also environmental and societal issues that Federal land and adjacent regional community planners need to consider in their long-range land-use planning.

Monitoring U.S. forest dynamics with Landsat [Chapter 12

Treesearch

Jeffrey G. Masek; Sean P. Healey

2012-01-01

Forest dynamics in the United States differ substantially from those in the developing world and thus present unique monitoring requirements. While deforestation and conversion to semipermanent agriculture dominate tropical forest dynamics, the area of forest land in the United States has remained fairly constant for the last 50-60 years (Birdsey and Lewis 2003)....

Detection and quantification by PCR assay of the biocontrol agent Pantoea agglomerans CPA-2 on apples.

PubMed

Soto-Muñoz, Lourdes; Teixidó, Neus; Usall, Josep; Viñas, Inmaculada; Torres, Rosario

2014-04-03

The registration of biological control agents requires the development of monitoring systems to detect and quantify the agent in the environment. Pantoea agglomerans CPA-2 is an effective biocontrol agent for postharvest diseases of citrus and pome fruits. The monitoring of CPA-2 in postharvest semi-commercial trials was evaluated by Rodac impression plates and the colonies isolated were confirmed by conventional PCR using the SCAR primers PAGA1 and PAGB1. Samples were taken from different surfaces that had contact with CPA-2, the surrounding environment and working clothes worn by handlers. Moreover, population dynamics of the strain CPA-2 were determined on apple surfaces using both the classical plating technique and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR). A qPCR assay using a 3'-minor groove-binding (MGB) probe was developed for the specific detection and quantification of P. agglomerans strain CPA-2. Based on the nucleotide sequence of a SCAR fragment of CPA-2, one primer set and TaqMan MGB probe were designed. The primers SP2-F/SP2-R and the TaqMan MGB probe showed a specific detection of strain CPA-2 on apple surfaces, which was verified tested against purified DNA from 17 strains of P. agglomerans, 4 related Pantoea species, and 21 bacterial strains from other genera isolated from whole and also freshly-cut fruit and vegetables. The detection level was approximately 10(3) cells per reaction, and the standard curve was linear within a range of 5log units. Results from semi-commercial trials showed that CPA-2 had a low impact. The maximum persistence of P. agglomerans CPA-2 was not longer than 5days in plastic boxes stored at 0°C. Significant differences in CPA-2 population level dynamics were observed in results obtained by qPCR and dilution plating. These differences may indicate the presence of non-degraded DNA from non-viable cells. In conclusion, qPCR is a novel potential tool to quickly and specifically monitor recent surface colonisation by CPA-2 populations on apple surfaces during large-scale experiments that could ensure efficient and successful treatments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alignment of process compliance and monitoring requirements in dynamic business collaborations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comuzzi, Marco

2017-07-01

Dynamic business collaborations are intrinsically characterised by change because processes can be distributed or outsourced and partners may be substituted by new ones with enhanced or different capabilities. In this context, compliance requirements management becomes particularly challenging. Partners in a collaboration may join and leave dynamically and tasks over which compliance requirements are specified may be consequently distributed or delegated to new partners. This article considers the issue of aligning compliance requirements in a dynamic business collaboration with the monitoring requirements induced on the collaborating partners when change occurs. We first provide a conceptual model of business collaborations and their compliance requirements, introducing the concept of monitoring capabilities induced by compliance requirements. Then, we present a set of mechanisms to ensure consistency between monitoring and compliance requirements in the presence of change, e.g. when tasks are delegated or backsourced in-house. We also discuss a set of metrics to evaluate the status of a collaboration in respect of compliance monitorability. Finally, we discuss a prototype implementation of our framework.

Exploring of PST-TBPM in Monitoring Bridge Dynamic Deflection in Vibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guojian; Liu, Shengzhen; Zhao, Tonglong; Yu, Chengxin

2018-01-01

This study adopts digital photography to monitor bridge dynamic deflection in vibration. Digital photography used in this study is based on PST-TBPM (photographing scale transformation-time baseline parallax method). Firstly, a digital camera is used to monitor the bridge in static as a zero image. Then, the digital camera is used to monitor the bridge in vibration every three seconds as the successive images. Based on the reference system, PST-TBPM is used to calculate the images to obtain the bridge dynamic deflection in vibration. Results show that the average measurement accuracies are 0.615 pixels and 0.79 pixels in X and Z direction. The maximal deflection of the bridge is 7.14 pixels. PST-TBPM is valid in solving the problem-the photographing direction not perpendicular to the bridge. Digital photography used in this study can assess the bridge health through monitoring the bridge dynamic deflection in vibration. The deformation trend curves depicted over time also can warn the possible dangers.

An overview of the utility of population simulation software in molecular ecology.

PubMed

Hoban, Sean

2014-05-01

Stochastic simulation software that simultaneously model genetic, population and environmental processes can inform many topics in molecular ecology. These include forecasting species and community response to environmental change, inferring dispersal ecology, revealing cryptic mating, quantifying past population dynamics, assessing in situ management options and monitoring neutral and adaptive biodiversity change. Advances in population demographic-genetic simulation software, especially with respect to individual life history, landscapes and genetic processes, are transforming and expanding the ways that molecular data can be used. The aim of this review is to explain the roles that such software can play in molecular ecology studies (whether as a principal component or a supporting function) so that researchers can decide whether, when and precisely how simulations can be incorporated into their work. First, I use seven case studies to demonstrate how simulations are employed, their specific advantage/necessity and what alternative or complementary (nonsimulation) approaches are available. I also explain how simulations can be integrated with existing spatial, environmental, historical and genetic data sets. I next describe simulation features that may be of interest to molecular ecologists, such as spatial and behavioural considerations and species' interactions, to provide guidance on how particular simulation capabilities can serve particular needs. Lastly, I discuss the prospect of simulation software in emerging challenges (climate change, biodiversity monitoring, population exploitation) and opportunities (genomics, ancient DNA), in order to emphasize that the scope of simulation-based work is expanding. I also suggest practical considerations, priorities and elements of best practice. This should accelerate the uptake of simulation approaches and firmly embed them as a versatile tool in the molecular ecologist's toolbox. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three categories of population dynamics models: deterministic modeling with Logistic chaos map as an example, stochastic modeling with spatial distribution patterns as an example, as well as survival analysis and extended evolutionary game theory (EEGT) modeling. Sample experiment results with Genetic algorithms (GA) are presented to demonstrate the applications of these models. The proposed EC population dynamics approach also makes survival selection largely unnecessary or much simplified since the individuals are naturally selected (controlled) by the mathematical models for EC population dynamics.

Comparison of Dawn and Dusk Precipitating Electron Energy Populations Shortly After the Initial Shock for the January 10th, 1997 Magnetic Cloud

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, J.; Germany, G.; Swift, W.; Parks, G.; Brittnacher, M.; Elsen, R.

1997-01-01

The observed precipitating electron energy between 0130 UT and 0400 UT of January 10 th, 1997, indicates that there is a more energetic precipitating electron population that appears in the auroral oval at 1800-2200 UT at 030) UT. This increase in energy occurs after the initial shock of the magnetic cloud reaches the Earth (0114 UT) and after faint but dynamic polar cap precipitation has been cleared out. The more energetic population is observed to remain rather constant in MLT through the onset of auroral activity (0330 UT) and to the end of the Polar spacecraft apogee pass. Data from the Ultraviolet Imager LBH long and LBH short images are used to quantify the average energy of the precipitating auroral electrons. The Wind spacecraft located about 100 RE upstream monitored the IMF and plasma parameters during the passing of the cloud. The affects of oblique angle viewing are included in the analysis. Suggestions as to the source of this hot electron population will be presented.

Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

Monitoring neotropical migrants on managed lands: when, where, why

Treesearch

Sam Droege

1993-01-01

Relevant wildlife monitoring on managed lands lies somewhere between monitoring everything and monitoring nothing. Knowing the population status of all birds on a managed area would be potentially useful information but would be costly to collect, but without monitoring no link between management and wildlife populations can be made. A decision making process for...

Timelines and mechanisms of wildlife population recovery following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esler, Daniel; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Matkin, Craig; Cushing, Daniel; Kaler, Robert; Bodkin, James; Monson, Daniel; Esslinger, George; Kloecker, Kim

2018-01-01

Research and monitoring activities over the 28 years since the T/V Exxon Valdez ran aground and spilled oil into Prince William Sound, Alaska have led to an improved understanding of how wildlife populations were damaged, as well as the mechanisms and timelines of recovery. A key finding was that for some species, such as harlequin ducks and sea otters, chronic oil spill effects persisted for at least two decades and were a larger influence on population dynamics over the long term than acute effects of the spill. These data also offer insights into population variation resulting from factors other than the oil spill. For example, while many seabirds experienced direct and indirect effects of the spill, population trajectories of some piscivorous birds, including pigeon guillemots and marbled murrelets, were linked to long-term environmental changes independent of spill effects. Another species, killer whales, suffered population declines due to acute spill effects that have not been resolved despite lack of chronic direct effects, representing a novel pathway of long-term injury. The observed variation in mechanisms and timelines of recovery is linked to species specific life history and natural history traits, and thus may be useful for predicting population recovery for other species following other spills.

Timelines and mechanisms of wildlife population recovery following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Matkin, Craig O.; Cushing, Daniel; Kaler, Robert; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel; Esslinger, George G.; Kloecker, Kimberly A.

2018-01-01

Research and monitoring activities over the 28 years since the T/V Exxon Valdez ran aground and spilled oil into Prince William Sound, Alaska have led to an improved understanding of how wildlife populations were damaged, as well as the mechanisms and timelines of recovery. A key finding was that for some species, such as harlequin ducks and sea otters, chronic oil spill effects persisted for at least two decades and were a larger influence on population dynamics over the long term than acute effects of the spill. These data also offer insights into population variation resulting from factors other than the oil spill. For example, while many seabirds experienced direct and indirect effects of the spill, population trajectories of some piscivorous birds, including pigeon guillemots and marbled murrelets, were linked to long-term environmental changes independent of spill effects. Another species, killer whales, suffered population declines due to acute spill effects that have not been resolved despite lack of chronic direct effects, representing a novel pathway of long-term injury. The observed variation in mechanisms and timelines of recovery is linked to species specific life history and natural history traits, and thus may be useful for predicting population recovery for other species following other spills.

Drivers of seabird population recovery on New Zealand islands after predator eradication.

PubMed

Buxton, Rachel T; Jones, Christopher; Moller, Henrik; Towns, David R

2014-04-01

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator-free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Communicable disease surveillance and control in the context of conflict and mass displacement in Syria.

PubMed

Ismail, Sharif A; Abbara, Aula; Collin, Simon M; Orcutt, Miriam; Coutts, Adam P; Maziak, Wasim; Sahloul, Zaher; Dar, Osman; Corrah, Tumena; Fouad, Fouad M

2016-06-01

To describe trends in major communicable diseases in Syria during the ongoing conflict, and the challenges to communicable disease surveillance and control in the context of dynamic, large-scale population displacement, unplanned mass gatherings, and disruption to critical infrastructure. A rapid review of the peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed literature from 2005 to 2015 was performed, augmented by secondary analysis of monitoring data from two disease early warning systems currently operational in Syria, focusing mainly on three diseases: tuberculosis (TB), measles, and polio. Trend data show discrepancies in case report numbers between government and non-government controlled areas, especially for TB, but interpretation is hampered by uncertainties over sentinel surveillance coverage and base population numbers. Communicable disease control has been undermined by a combination of governance fragmentation, direct and indirect damage to facilities and systems, and health worker flight. Five years into the crisis, some progress has been made in disease surveillance, but governance and coordination problems, variable immunization coverage, and the dynamic and indiscriminate nature of the conflict continue to pose a serious threat to population health in Syria and surrounding countries. The risk of major cross-border communicable disease outbreaks is high, and challenges for health in a post-conflict Syria are formidable. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Mapping the information landscape: Discerning peaks and valleys for ecological monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moniz, L.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Nichols, J.M.

2007-01-01

We investigate previously unreported phenomena that have a potentially significant impact on the design of surveillance monitoring programs for ecological systems. Ecological monitoring practitioners have long recognized that different species are differentially informative of a system?s dynamics, as codified in the well-known concepts of indicator or keystone species. Using a novel combination of analysis techniques from nonlinear dynamics, we describe marked variation among spatial sites in information content with respect to system dynamics in the entire region. We first observed these phenomena in a spatially extended predator?prey model, but we observed strikingly similar features in verified water-level data from a NOAA/NOS Great Lakes monitoring program. We suggest that these features may be widespread and the design of surveillance monitoring programs should reflect knowledge of their existence.

Validating Prehistoric and Current Social Phenomena Upon the Landscape of the Peten, Guatemala

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sever, Thomas L.

1997-01-01

The Peten, once inhabited by a population of several million before the collapse of the ancient Maya in the 10th and 11th centuries, is being repopulated toward its former demographic peak. Environmental dynamics, however, impose severe constraints to further development. Current practices in subsistence, commercial agriculture, and cattle raising are causing rapid deforestation on a scale that can only result in soil loss and regional degradation. In view of the current deforestation trends, the question emerges as to how millions of ancient Maya lived successfully in the area for centuries when relatively fewer occupants today threaten the sustainability of the landscape with current agricultural practices. The use of remote sensing technology is a cost-effective methodology for addressing issues in Maya archeology as well as monitoring the environmental impacts being experienced by the current population.

Subsidence Monitoring in Seville (S Spain) Using Multi-Temporal InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Armenteros, Antonio M.; Ruiz-Constan, Ana; Lamas-Fernandez, Francisco; Galindo-Zaldivar, Jesus; Sousa, Joaquim J.; Sanz de Galdeano, Carlos; Delgado, Manuel J.; Pedrera-Parias, Antonio; Martos-Rosillo, Sergio; Gil, Antonio J.; Caro-Cuenca, Miguel; Hanssen, Ramon F.

2016-08-01

Seville, with a metropolitan population of about 1.5 million, is the capital and largest city of Andalusia (S Spain). It is the 30th most populous municipality in the European Union and contains three UNESCO World Heritage Sites. The Seville harbour, located about 80 km from the Atlantic Ocean, is the only river port in Spain. The city is located on the plain of the Guadalquivir River. Using Multi-Temporal InSAR with ERS-1/2 and Envisat data a subsidence behavior is detected in the period 1992-2010. The geometry of the subsiding areas suggests that it should be conditioned by the fluvial dynamics of the Guadalquivir River and its tributaries. Facies distribution along the fluvial system (paleochannels, flood plains...), with different grain size and matrix proportion, may explain the relative subsidence between the different sectors.

Microbial growth associated with granular activated carbon in a pilot water treatment facility.

PubMed Central

Wilcox, D P; Chang, E; Dickson, K L; Johansson, K R

1983-01-01

The microbial dynamics associated with granular activated carbon (GAC) in a pilot water treatment plant were investigated over a period of 16 months. Microbial populations were monitored in the influent and effluent waters and on the GAC particles by means of total plate counts and ATP assays. Microbial populations between the influent and effluent waters of the GAC columns generally increased, indicating microbial growth. The dominant genera of microorganisms isolated from interstitial waters and GAC particles were Achromobacter, Acinetobacter, Aeromonas, Alcaligenes, Bacillus, Chromobacterium, Corynebacterium, Micrococcus, Microcyclus, Paracoccus, and Pseudomonas. Coliform bacteria were found in small numbers in the effluents from some of the GAC columns in the later months of the study. Oxidation of influent waters with ozone and maintenance of aerobic conditions on the GAC columns failed to appreciably enhance the microbial growth on GAC. PMID:6625567

Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

PubMed

Thomson, Diane M

2016-10-01

Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Dynamics of reactive microbial hotspots in concentration gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubert, Antoine; Farasin, Julien; Tabuteau, Hervé; Méheust, Yves; Le Borgne, Tanguy

2017-04-01

In subsurface environments, bacteria play a major role in controlling the kinetics of a broad range of biogeochemical reactions. In such environments, nutrients fluxes and solute concentrations needed for bacteria metabolism may be highly variable in space and intermittent in time. This can lead to the formation of reactive hotspots where and when conditions are favorable to particular microorganisms, hence inducing biogeochemical reaction kinetics that differ significantly from those measured in homogeneous model environments. To investigate the impact of chemical gradients on the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of subsurface microorganism populations, we develop microfluidic cells allowing for a precise control of flow and chemical gradient conditions, as well as a quantitative monitoring of the bacteria's spatial distribution and biofilm development. Using the non-motile Escherichia coli JW1908-1 strain and Gallionella as model organisms, we investigate the behavior and development of bacteria over a range of single and double concentration gradients in the concentrations of nutrients, electron donors and electron acceptors. To quantify bacterial activity we use Fluorescein Diacetate (FDA) hydrolysis by bacterial enzymes which transforms FDA into Fluorescein, whose local concentration is measured optically. We thus measure bacterial activity locally from the time derivative of the measured fluorescence. This approach allows time-resolved monitoring of the location and intensity of reactive hotspots in micromodels as a function of the flow and chemical gradient conditions. We discuss consequences for the formation and temporal dynamics of biofilms in the subsurface.

Amphibian monitoring in the Atchafalaya Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waddle, Hardin

2011-01-01

Amphibians are a diverse group of animals that includes frogs, toads, and salamanders. They are adapted to living in a variety of habitats, but most require water for at least one life stage. Amphibians have recently become a worldwide conservation concern because of declines and extinctions even in remote protected areas previously thought to be safe from the pressures of habitat loss and degradation. Amphibians are an important part of ecosystem dynamics because they can be quite abundant and serve both as a predator of smaller organisms and as prey to a suite of vertebrate predators. Their permeable skin and aquatic life history also make them useful as indicators of ecosystem health. Since 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey has been studying the frog and toad species inhabiting the Atchafalaya Basin to monitor for population declines and to better understand how the species are potentially affected by disease, environmental contaminants, and climate change.

Ramet demography of a nurse bromeliad in Brazilian restingas.

PubMed

Sampaio, Michelle C; Picó, F Xavier; Scarano, Fabio R

2005-04-01

Restingas are sandy coastal plains that stand between the sea and the Brazilian Atlantic forest mountains. The predominant restinga vegetation type in northern Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is characterized by the formation of islands that begins with colonization by some pioneer herbs and/or woody plants. Pioneer plants are stress-resistant and nurse many other less-resistant plant species. Determining the spatiotemporal variation in the dynamics of nurse plants is essential to understand the ecological functioning of restingas as a whole. The goal of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in population dynamics of the nurse bromeliad Aechmea nudicaulis. We monitored A. nudicaulis ramets in different habitats, microhabitats, and years. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in demographic traits and in population growth rate. Results showed young ramet traits were more variable at the microhabitat level, and when variable, vegetative ramet traits varied at all spatiotemporal scales. Overall, λ values indicated that A. nudicaulis basically remained spatiotemporally stable as most of the λ values did not significantly differ from unity. Hence, the stability of A. nudicaulis in different microhabitats and habitats in the restinga may create several settlement opportunities for many other less-resistant species.

Elevated correlations in neuronal ensembles of mouse auditory cortex following parturition.

PubMed

Rothschild, Gideon; Cohen, Lior; Mizrahi, Adi; Nelken, Israel

2013-07-31

The auditory cortex is malleable by experience. Previous studies of auditory plasticity have described experience-dependent changes in response profiles of single neurons or changes in global tonotopic organization. However, experience-dependent changes in the dynamics of local neural populations have remained unexplored. In this study, we examined the influence of a dramatic yet natural experience in the life of female mice, giving birth and becoming a mother on single neurons and neuronal ensembles in the primary auditory cortex (A1). Using in vivo two-photon calcium imaging and electrophysiological recordings from layer 2/3 in A1 of mothers and age-matched virgin mice, we monitored changes in the responses to a set of artificial and natural sounds. Population dynamics underwent large changes as measured by pairwise and higher-order correlations, with noise correlations increasing as much as twofold in lactating mothers. Concomitantly, changes in response properties of single neurons were modest and selective. Remarkably, despite the large changes in correlations, information about stimulus identity remained essentially the same in the two groups. Our results demonstrate changes in the correlation structure of neuronal activity as a result of a natural life event.

Noninvasive and cost-effective trapping method for monitoring sensitive mammal populations

Treesearch

Stephanie E. Trapp; Elizabeth A. Flaherty

2017-01-01

Noninvasive sampling methods provide a means to monitor endangered, threatened, or sensitive species or populations while increasing the efficacy of personnel effort and time. We developed a monitoring protocol that utilizes single-capture hair snares and analysis of morphological features of hair for evaluating populations. During 2015, we used the West Virginia...

Linking Demographic Processes of Juvenile Corals to Benthic Recovery Trajectories in Two Common Reef Habitats

PubMed Central

Doropoulos, Christopher; Ward, Selina; Roff, George; González-Rivero, Manuel; Mumby, Peter J.

2015-01-01

Tropical reefs are dynamic ecosystems that host diverse coral assemblages with different life-history strategies. Here, we quantified how juvenile (<50 mm) coral demographics influenced benthic coral structure in reef flat and reef slope habitats on the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Permanent plots and settlement tiles were monitored every six months for three years in each habitat. These environments exhibited profound differences: the reef slope was characterised by 95% less macroalgal cover, and twice the amount of available settlement substrata and rates of coral settlement than the reef flat. Consequently, post-settlement coral survival in the reef slope was substantially higher than that of the reef flat, and resulted in a rapid increase in coral cover from 7 to 31% in 2.5 years. In contrast, coral cover on the reef flat remained low (~10%), whereas macroalgal cover increased from 23 to 45%. A positive stock-recruitment relationship was found in brooding corals in both habitats; however, brooding corals were not directly responsible for the observed changes in coral cover. Rather, the rapid increase on the reef slope resulted from high abundances of broadcast spawning Acropora recruits. Incorporating our results into transition matrix models demonstrated that most corals escape mortality once they exceed 50 mm, but for smaller corals mortality in brooders was double those of spawners (i.e. acroporids and massive corals). For corals on the reef flat, sensitivity analysis demonstrated that growth and mortality of larger juveniles (21–50 mm) highly influenced population dynamics; whereas the recruitment, growth and mortality of smaller corals (<20 mm) had the highest influence on reef slope population dynamics. Our results provide insight into the population dynamics and recovery trajectories in disparate reef habitats, and highlight the importance of acroporid recruitment in driving rapid increases in coral cover following large-scale perturbation in reef slope environments. PMID:26009892

Linking demographic processes of juvenile corals to benthic recovery trajectories in two common reef habitats.

PubMed

Doropoulos, Christopher; Ward, Selina; Roff, George; González-Rivero, Manuel; Mumby, Peter J

2015-01-01

Tropical reefs are dynamic ecosystems that host diverse coral assemblages with different life-history strategies. Here, we quantified how juvenile (<50 mm) coral demographics influenced benthic coral structure in reef flat and reef slope habitats on the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Permanent plots and settlement tiles were monitored every six months for three years in each habitat. These environments exhibited profound differences: the reef slope was characterised by 95% less macroalgal cover, and twice the amount of available settlement substrata and rates of coral settlement than the reef flat. Consequently, post-settlement coral survival in the reef slope was substantially higher than that of the reef flat, and resulted in a rapid increase in coral cover from 7 to 31% in 2.5 years. In contrast, coral cover on the reef flat remained low (~10%), whereas macroalgal cover increased from 23 to 45%. A positive stock-recruitment relationship was found in brooding corals in both habitats; however, brooding corals were not directly responsible for the observed changes in coral cover. Rather, the rapid increase on the reef slope resulted from high abundances of broadcast spawning Acropora recruits. Incorporating our results into transition matrix models demonstrated that most corals escape mortality once they exceed 50 mm, but for smaller corals mortality in brooders was double those of spawners (i.e. acroporids and massive corals). For corals on the reef flat, sensitivity analysis demonstrated that growth and mortality of larger juveniles (21-50 mm) highly influenced population dynamics; whereas the recruitment, growth and mortality of smaller corals (<20 mm) had the highest influence on reef slope population dynamics. Our results provide insight into the population dynamics and recovery trajectories in disparate reef habitats, and highlight the importance of acroporid recruitment in driving rapid increases in coral cover following large-scale perturbation in reef slope environments.

Contrasting Transmission Dynamics of Co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination

PubMed Central

Noviyanti, Rintis; Coutrier, Farah; Utami, Retno A. S.; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Tirta, Yusrifar K.; Trianty, Leily; Kusuma, Andreas; Sutanto, Inge; Kosasih, Ayleen; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hawley, William A.; Laihad, Ferdinand; Lobo, Neil; Marfurt, Jutta; Clark, Taane G.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

2015-01-01

Background Outside of Africa, P. falciparum and P. vivax usually coexist. In such co-endemic regions, successful malaria control programs have a greater impact on reducing falciparum malaria, resulting in P. vivax becoming the predominant species of infection. Adding to the challenges of elimination, the dormant liver stage complicates efforts to monitor the impact of ongoing interventions against P. vivax. We investigated molecular approaches to inform the respective transmission dynamics of P. falciparum and P. vivax and how these could help to prioritize public health interventions. Methodology/ Principal Findings Genotype data generated at 8 and 9 microsatellite loci were analysed in 168 P. falciparum and 166 P. vivax isolates, respectively, from four co-endemic sites in Indonesia (Bangka, Kalimantan, Sumba and West Timor). Measures of diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure were used to gauge the transmission dynamics of each species in each setting. Marked differences were observed in the diversity and population structure of P. vivax versus P. falciparum. In Bangka, Kalimantan and Timor, P. falciparum diversity was low, and LD patterns were consistent with unstable, epidemic transmission, amenable to targeted intervention. In contrast, P. vivax diversity was higher and transmission appeared more stable. Population differentiation was lower in P. vivax versus P. falciparum, suggesting that the hypnozoite reservoir might play an important role in sustaining local transmission and facilitating the spread of P. vivax infections in different endemic settings. P. vivax polyclonality varied with local endemicity, demonstrating potential utility in informing on transmission intensity in this species. Conclusions/ Significance Molecular approaches can provide important information on malaria transmission that is not readily available from traditional epidemiological measures. Elucidation of the transmission dynamics circulating in a given setting will have a major role in prioritising malaria control strategies, particularly against the relatively neglected non-falciparum species. PMID:25951184

Timing the start of division in E. coli: a single-cell study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reshes, G.; Vanounou, S.; Fishov, I.; Feingold, M.

2008-12-01

We monitor the shape dynamics of individual E. coli cells using time-lapse microscopy together with accurate image analysis. This allows measuring the dynamics of single-cell parameters throughout the cell cycle. In previous work, we have used this approach to characterize the main features of single-cell morphogenesis between successive divisions. Here, we focus on the behavior of the parameters that are related to cell division and study their variation over a population of 30 cells. In particular, we show that the single-cell data for the constriction width dynamics collapse onto a unique curve following appropriate rescaling of the corresponding variables. This suggests the presence of an underlying time scale that determines the rate at which the cell cycle advances in each individual cell. For the case of cell length dynamics a similar rescaling of variables emphasizes the presence of a breakpoint in the growth rate at the time when division starts, τc. We also find that the τc of individual cells is correlated with their generation time, τg, and inversely correlated with the corresponding length at birth, L0. Moreover, the extent of the T-period, τg - τc, is apparently independent of τg. The relations between τc, τg and L0 indicate possible compensation mechanisms that maintain cell length variability at about 10%. Similar behavior was observed for both fast-growing cells in a rich medium (LB) and for slower growth in a minimal medium (M9-glucose). To reveal the molecular mechanisms that lead to the observed organization of the cell cycle, we should further extend our approach to monitor the formation of the divisome.

One hundred and six years of population and community dynamics of Sonoran Desert Laboratory perennials

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez-Buritica, Susana; Raichle, Helen; Webb, Robert H.; Turner, Raymond M.; Venable, Larry

2013-01-01

This data set constitutes all information associated with the Spalding-Shreve permanent vegetation plots from 1906 through 2012, which is the longest-running plant monitoring program in the world. The program consists of detailed maps of all Sonoran Desert perennial plants in 30 permanent plots located on Tumamoc Hill, near Tucson, Arizona, USA. Most of these plots are 10 m × 10 m quadrats that were established by Volney Spalding and Forrest Shreve between 1906 and 1928. Analyses derived from these data have been pivotal in testing early theories on plant community succession, plant life history traits, plant longevity, and population dynamics. One of the major contributions of this data set is the species-specific demographic traits that derived from estimating individual plant trajectories for more than 106 years. Further use of these data might shed light on spatially explicit population and community dynamics, as well as long-term changes attributable to global change. Data presented here consist of digital versions of original maps created between 1906 and 1984 and digital data from recent censuses between 1993 and 2012. Attributes associated with these maps include location and coverage of all shrubs, and in some cases, plant height. In addition, we present plot-specific summaries of plant cover and density for each census year and all other information collected, including seedling counts, grass coverage, and annual species enumerations. We reference the repeat photography of these plots, which began in 1906; these images are stored at the Desert Laboratory Collection of Repeat Photography in Tucson. Initial data collection consisted of grid-mapping the plots manually on graph paper; starting in 1993, Total Stations (which allow a direct digitalization, and more accurate mapping) were used to survey root crowns and canopies.

Influence of Multiple Infection and Relatedness on Virulence: Disease Dynamics in an Experimental Plant Population and Its Castrating Parasite

PubMed Central

Buono, Lorenza; López-Villavicencio, Manuela; Shykoff, Jacqui A.; Snirc, Alodie; Giraud, Tatiana

2014-01-01

The level of parasite virulence, i.e., the decrease in host's fitness due to a pathogen, is expected to depend on several parameters, such as the type of the disease (e.g., castrating or host-killing) and the prevalence of multiple infections. Although these parameters have been extensively studied theoretically, few empirical data are available to validate theoretical predictions. Using the anther smut castrating disease on Silene latifolia caused by Microbotryum lychnidis-dioicae, we studied the dynamics of multiple infections and of different components of virulence (host death, non-recovery and percentage of castrated stems) during the entire lifespan of the host in an experimental population. We monitored the number of fungal genotypes within plants and their relatedness across five years, using microsatellite markers, as well as the rates of recovery and host death in the population. The mean relatedness among genotypes within plants remained at a high level throughout the entire host lifespan despite the dynamics of the disease, with recurrent new infections. Recovery was lower for plants with multiple infections compared to plants infected by a single genotype. As expected for castrating parasites, M. lychnidis-dioicae did not increase host mortality. Mortality varied across years but was generally lower for plants that had been diseased the preceding year. This is one of the few studies to have empirically verified theoretical expectations for castrating parasites, and to show particularly i) that castrated hosts live longer, suggesting that parasites can redirect resources normally used in reproduction to increase host lifespan, lengthening their transmission phase, and ii) that multiple infections increase virulence, here in terms of non-recovery and host castration. PMID:24892951

Integrating travel behavior with land use regression to estimate dynamic air pollution exposure in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Tang, Robert; Tian, Linwei; Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Tsui, Tsz Him; Brauer, Michael; Lee, Martha; Allen, Ryan; Yuchi, Weiran; Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Paulina; Barratt, Benjamin

2018-04-01

Epidemiological studies typically use subjects' residential address to estimate individuals' air pollution exposure. However, in reality this exposure is rarely static as people move from home to work/study locations and commute during the day. Integrating mobility and time-activity data may reduce errors and biases, thereby improving estimates of health risks. To incorporate land use regression with movement and building infiltration data to estimate time-weighted air pollution exposures stratified by age, sex, and employment status for population subgroups in Hong Kong. A large population-representative survey (N = 89,385) was used to characterize travel behavior, and derive time-activity pattern for each subject. Infiltration factors calculated from indoor/outdoor monitoring campaigns were used to estimate micro-environmental concentrations. We evaluated dynamic and static (residential location-only) exposures in a staged modeling approach to quantify effects of each component. Higher levels of exposures were found for working adults and students due to increased mobility. Compared to subjects aged 65 or older, exposures to PM 2.5 , BC, and NO 2 were 13%, 39% and 14% higher, respectively for subjects aged below 18, and 3%, 18% and 11% higher, respectively for working adults. Exposures of females were approximately 4% lower than those of males. Dynamic exposures were around 20% lower than ambient exposures at residential addresses. The incorporation of infiltration and mobility increased heterogeneity in population exposure and allowed identification of highly exposed groups. The use of ambient concentrations may lead to exposure misclassification which introduces bias, resulting in lower effect estimates than 'true' exposures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid ongoing decline of Baird's tapir in Cusuco National Park, Honduras.

PubMed

McCANN, Niall P; Wheeler, Phil M; Coles, Tim; Bruford, Michael W

2012-12-01

During the International Tapir Symposium 16-21 Oct 2011, the conservation of Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) in Honduras received a boost with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Minister Director of the Honduran Institute of Conservation and Forestry (ICF) and the Tapir Specialist Group (TSG). Despite this agreement, accelerating levels of hunting and habitat loss continue to pose a threat to Baird's tapir in Honduras. An ongoing study in Cusuco National Park in northwestern Honduras has been monitoring changes in population dynamics of Baird's tapir since 2006 through the collection of occupancy data. The study has identified an increase in hunting pressure, coinciding with a drastic decline in the encounter rate with Baird's tapir spoor. Here, we examine the significance of a range of demographic variables on Baird's tapir occupancy in Cusuco National Park using the software PRESENCE, and simulate the effects of different management strategies on the future dynamics of the population using the stochastic simulation software VORTEX. The predictions of the theoretical population models are compared to observed changes in occupancy levels. We found that non-intervention resulted in the local extinction of Baird's tapir within a very short time frame, but that various intervention models enabled the population to recover to near carrying capacity. Occupancy and extinction probability were shown to respond markedly to the increase in hunting pressure; and occupancy models supported the future population predictions generated by VORTEX. Our study suggests that immediate intervention is required to reduce hunting pressure to near historical levels to prevent the imminent local extinction of the species. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Towards a Solution to the Goose-Agriculture Conflict in North Norway, 1988–2012: The Interplay between Policy, Stakeholder Influence and Goose Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Tombre, Ingunn M.; Eythórsson, Einar; Madsen, Jesper

2013-01-01

This paper presents results from a multidisciplinary study of a negotiation process between farmers and wildlife authorities which led to an agricultural subsidy scheme to alleviate conflicts between agriculture and geese in Norway. The Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus has increased considerably over the last decades and conflicts with farmers have escalated, especially at stopover sites in spring when geese feed on newly sprouted pasture grass. In Vesterålen, an important stopover site for geese in North Norway, farmers deployed scaring of geese at varying intensity dependent on the level of conflict during 1988–2012. We assessed the efficiency of a subsidy scheme established in 2006, in terms of its conflict mitigation, reflected in a near discontinuation of scaring activities. The presence of pink-footed geese was analysed in relation to scaring intensity, the total goose population size and the increasing occurrence of another goose species, the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis. Scaring significantly affected the number of geese staging in Vesterålen, both in absolute and relative terms (controlling for total population size). The geese responded immediately to an increased, and reduced, level of scaring. Despite the establishment of the subsidy scheme, the number of pink-footed geese has recently declined which is probably caused by the increasing number of barnacle geese. For the farmers, the subsidy scheme provides funding that reduces the economic costs caused by the geese. Sustaining a low level of conflict will require close monitoring, dialogue and adaptation of the subsidy scheme to cater for changes in goose population dynamics. PMID:23977175

Speciation and dynamics of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export in the Danshui River, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.-Y.; Shih, Y.-T.; Huang, J.-C.; Kao, S.-J.; Shiah, F.-K.; Liu, K.-K.

2014-10-01

Human-induced excess nitrogen outflowing from land through rivers to oceans has resulted in serious impacts on terrestrial and coastal ecosystems. Oceania, which occupies < 2.5% of the global land surface, delivers 12% of the freshwater and dissolved materials to the ocean on a global scale. However, there are few empirical data sets on riverine dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) fluxes in the region, and their dynamics are poorly understood. In this study, a river monitoring network covering different types of land uses and population densities was implemented to investigate the mechanism of DIN export. The results show that DIN concentration/yield varied from ∼20 μM/∼300 kg-N km-2 yr-1 to ∼378 μM/∼10 000 kg-N km-2 yr-1 from the relatively pristine headwaters to the populous estuary. Agriculture and population density control DIN export in less densely populated regions and urban areas, respectively, and runoff controls DIN at the watershed scale. Compared to documented estimates from global models, the observed DIN export from the Danshui River is 2.3 times larger, which results from the region-specific response of DIN yield to dense population and abundant runoff. The dominating DIN species change gradually from NO3- in the headwaters (∼97%) to NH4+ in the estuary (∼60%) following the urbanization gradient. The prominent existence of NH4+ is probably the result of the anaerobic water body and short residence time, unlike in large river basins. Given the analogous watershed characteristics of the Danshui River to the rivers in Oceania, our study could serve as a first example to examine riverine DIN fluxes in Oceania.

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins.

PubMed

Abadi, Fitsum; Barbraud, Christophe; Gimenez, Olivier

2017-03-01

Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Passive Baited Sequential Fly Trap

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sampling fly populations associated with human populations is needed to understand diel behavior and to monitor population densities before and after control operations. Population control measures are dependent on the results of monitoring efforts as they may provide insight into the fly behavior ...

TRANSGENE ESCAPE MONITORING, POPULATION GENETICS, AND THE LAW

EPA Science Inventory

There has been little discussion about how to apply population genetics methods to monitor the spread of transgenes that are detected outside the agricultural populations where they are deployed. Population geneticists have developed tools for analyzing the genetic makeup of indi...

Monitoring bird populations by point counts

Treesearch

C. John Ralph; John R. Sauer; Sam Droege

1995-01-01

This volume contains in part papers presented at the Symposium on Monitoring Bird Population Trends by Point Counts, which was held November 6-7, 1991, in Beltsville, Md., in response to the need for standardization of methods to monitor bird populations by point counts. Data from various investigators working under a wide variety of conditions are presented, and...

PA-GFP: a window into the subcellular adventures of the individual mitochondrion.

PubMed

Haigh, Sarah E; Twig, Gilad; Molina, Anthony A J; Wikstrom, Jakob D; Deutsch, Motti; Shirihai, Orian S

2007-01-01

Mitochondrial connectivity is characterized by matrix lumen continuity and by dynamic rewiring through fusion and fission events. While these mechanisms homogenize the mitochondrial population, a number of studies looking at mitochondrial membrane potential have demonstrated that mitochondria exist as a heterogeneous population within individual cells. To address the relationship between mitochondrial dynamics and heterogeneity, we tagged and tracked individual mitochondria over time while monitoring their mitochondrial membrane potential (deltapsi(m)). By utilizing photoactivatible-GFP (PA-GFP), targeted to the mitochondrial matrix, we determined the boundaries of the individual mitochondrion. A single mitochondrion is defined by the continuity of its matrix lumen. The boundaries set by luminal continuity matched those set by electrical coupling, indicating that the individual mitochondrion is equipotential throughout the entire organelle. Similar results were obtained with PA-GFP targeted to the inner membrane indicating that matrix continuity parallels inner membrane continuity. Sequential photoconversion of matrix PA-GFP in multiple locations within the mitochondrial web reveals that each ramified mitochondrial structure is composed of juxtaposed but discontinuous units. Moreover, as many as half of the events in which mitochondria come into contact, do not result in fusion. While all fission events generated two electrically uncoupled discontinuous matrices, the two daughter mitochondria frequently remained juxtaposed, keeping the tubular appearance unchanged. These morphologically invisible fission events illustrate the difference between mitochondrial fission and fragmentation; the latter representing the movement and separation of disconnected units. Simultaneous monitoring of deltapsi(m) of up to four individual mitochondria within the same cell revealed that subcellular heterogeneity in deltapsi(m) does not represent multiple unstable mitochondria that appear 'heterogeneous' at any given point, but rather multiple stable, but heterogeneous units.

Long-term temporal and spatial dynamics of food availability for endangered mountain gorillas in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda.

PubMed

Grueter, Cyril C; Ndamiyabo, Ferdinand; Plumptre, Andrew J; Abavandimwe, Didier; Mundry, Roger; Fawcett, Katie A; Robbins, Martha M

2013-03-01

Monitoring temporal and spatial changes in the resource availability of endangered species contributes to their conservation. The number of critically endangered mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in the Virunga Volcano population has doubled over the past three decades, but no studies have examined how food availability has changed during that period. First, we assessed if the plant species consumed by the gorillas have changed in abundance and distribution during the past two decades. In 2009-2010, we replicated a study conducted in 1988-1989 by measuring the frequency, density, and biomass of plant species consumed by the gorillas in 496 plots (ca. 6 km(2)) in the Karisoke study area in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. We expected to observe a decreased presence of major gorilla food plants as a likely result of density-dependent overharvesting by gorillas. Among the five most frequently consumed species (composing approximately 70% of the gorilla's diet, excluding bamboo), two have decreased in availability and abundance, while three have increased. Some species have undergone shifts in their altitudinal distribution, possibly due to regional climatic changes. Second, we made baseline measurements of food availability in a larger area currently utilized by the gorillas. In the extended sampling (n = 473 plots) area (ca. 25 km(2) ), of the five most frequently consumed species, two were not significantly different in frequency from the re-sampled area, while two occurred significantly less frequently, and one occurred significantly more frequently. We discuss the potential impact of gorilla-induced herbivory on changes of vegetation abundance. The changes in the species most commonly consumed by the gorillas could affect their nutrient intake and stresses the importance of monitoring the interrelation among plant population dynamics, species density, and resource use. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Monitoring the abundance of plastic debris in the marine environment.

PubMed

Ryan, Peter G; Moore, Charles J; van Franeker, Jan A; Moloney, Coleen L

2009-07-27

Plastic debris has significant environmental and economic impacts in marine systems. Monitoring is crucial to assess the efficacy of measures implemented to reduce the abundance of plastic debris, but it is complicated by large spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the amounts of plastic debris and by our limited understanding of the pathways followed by plastic debris and its long-term fate. To date, most monitoring has focused on beach surveys of stranded plastics and other litter. Infrequent surveys of the standing stock of litter on beaches provide crude estimates of debris types and abundance, but are biased by differential removal of litter items by beachcombing, cleanups and beach dynamics. Monitoring the accumulation of stranded debris provides an index of debris trends in adjacent waters, but is costly to undertake. At-sea sampling requires large sample sizes for statistical power to detect changes in abundance, given the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Another approach is to monitor the impacts of plastics. Seabirds and other marine organisms that accumulate plastics in their stomachs offer a cost-effective way to monitor the abundance and composition of small plastic litter. Changes in entanglement rates are harder to interpret, as they are sensitive to changes in population sizes of affected species. Monitoring waste disposal on ships and plastic debris levels in rivers and storm-water runoff is useful because it identifies the main sources of plastic debris entering the sea and can direct mitigation efforts. Different monitoring approaches are required to answer different questions, but attempts should be made to standardize approaches internationally.

Monitoring the abundance of plastic debris in the marine environment

PubMed Central

Ryan, Peter G.; Moore, Charles J.; van Franeker, Jan A.; Moloney, Coleen L.

2009-01-01

Plastic debris has significant environmental and economic impacts in marine systems. Monitoring is crucial to assess the efficacy of measures implemented to reduce the abundance of plastic debris, but it is complicated by large spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the amounts of plastic debris and by our limited understanding of the pathways followed by plastic debris and its long-term fate. To date, most monitoring has focused on beach surveys of stranded plastics and other litter. Infrequent surveys of the standing stock of litter on beaches provide crude estimates of debris types and abundance, but are biased by differential removal of litter items by beachcombing, cleanups and beach dynamics. Monitoring the accumulation of stranded debris provides an index of debris trends in adjacent waters, but is costly to undertake. At-sea sampling requires large sample sizes for statistical power to detect changes in abundance, given the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Another approach is to monitor the impacts of plastics. Seabirds and other marine organisms that accumulate plastics in their stomachs offer a cost-effective way to monitor the abundance and composition of small plastic litter. Changes in entanglement rates are harder to interpret, as they are sensitive to changes in population sizes of affected species. Monitoring waste disposal on ships and plastic debris levels in rivers and storm-water runoff is useful because it identifies the main sources of plastic debris entering the sea and can direct mitigation efforts. Different monitoring approaches are required to answer different questions, but attempts should be made to standardize approaches internationally. PMID:19528052

Mathematical analysis of a lymphatic filariasis model with quarantine and treatment.

PubMed

Mwamtobe, Peter M; Simelane, Simphiwe M; Abelman, Shirley; Tchuenche, Jean M

2017-03-16

Lymphatic filariasis is a globally neglected tropical parasitic disease which affects individuals of all ages and leads to an altered lymphatic system and abnormal enlargement of body parts. A mathematical model of lymphatic filariaris with intervention strategies is developed and analyzed. Control of infections is analyzed within the model through medical treatment of infected-acute individuals and quarantine of infected-chronic individuals. We derive the effective reproduction number, [Formula: see text] and its interpretation/investigation suggests that treatment contributes to a reduction in lymphatic filariasis cases faster than quarantine. However, this reduction is greater when the two intervention approaches are applied concurrently. Numerical simulations are carried out to monitor the dynamics of the filariasis model sub-populations for various parameter values of the associated reproduction threshold. Lastly, sensitivity analysis on key parameters that drive the disease dynamics is performed in order to identify their relative importance on the disease transmission.

Human dynamics revealed through Web analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, Bruno; Ramasco, José J.

2008-08-01

The increasing ubiquity of Internet access and the frequency with which people interact with it raise the possibility of using the Web to better observe, understand, and monitor several aspects of human social behavior. Web sites with large numbers of frequently returning users are ideal for this task. If these sites belong to companies or universities, their usage patterns can furnish information about the working habits of entire populations. In this work, we analyze the properly anonymized logs detailing the access history to Emory University’s Web site. Emory is a medium-sized university located in Atlanta, Georgia. We find interesting structure in the activity patterns of the domain and study in a systematic way the main forces behind the dynamics of the traffic. In particular, we find that linear preferential linking, priority-based queuing, and the decay of interest for the contents of the pages are the essential ingredients to understand the way users navigate the Web.

Elucidation of monocyte/macrophage dynamics and function by intravital imaging

PubMed Central

Rua, Rejane; McGavern, Dorian B.

2015-01-01

Monocytes and macrophages are a diverse population of innate immune cells that play a critical role in homeostasis and inflammation. These cells are surveillant by nature and closely monitor the vasculature and surrounding tissue during states of health and disease. Given their abundance and strategic positioning throughout the body, myeloid cells are among the first responders to any inflammatory challenge and are active participants in most immune-mediated diseases. Recent studies have shed new light on myeloid cell dynamics and function by use of an imaging technique referred to as intravital microscopy (IVM). This powerful approach allows researchers to gain real-time insights into monocytes and macrophages performing homeostatic and inflammatory tasks in living tissues. In this review, we will present a contemporary synopsis of how intravital microscopy has revolutionized our understanding of myeloid cell contributions to vascular maintenance, microbial defense, autoimmunity, tumorigenesis, and acute/chronic inflammatory diseases. PMID:26162402

Detection of ultra-low oxygen concentration based on the fluorescence blinking dynamics of single molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ruixiang; Chen, Ruiyun; Zhou, Haitao; Qin, Yaqiang; Zhang, Guofeng; Qin, Chengbing; Gao, Yan; Gao, Yajun; Xiao, Liantuan; Jia, Suotang

2018-01-01

We present a sensitive method for detection of ultra-low oxygen concentrations based on the fluorescence blinking dynamics of single molecules. The relationship between the oxygen concentration and the fraction of time spent in the off-state, stemming from the population and depopulation of triplet states and radical cationic states, can be fitted with a two-site quenching model in the Stern-Volmer plot. The oxygen sensitivity is up to 43.42 kPa-1 in the oxygen partial pressure region as low as 0.01-0.25 kPa, which is seven times higher than that of the fluorescence intensity indicator. This method avoids the limitation of the sharp and non-ignorable fluctuations that occur during the measurement of fluorescence intensity, providing potential applications in the field of low oxygen-concentration monitoring in life science and industry.

The impact of insecticide applications on the dynamics of resistance: The case of four Aedes aegypti populations from different Brazilian regions

PubMed Central

Martins, Ademir de Jesus; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael; Linss, Jutta Gerlinde Birggitt; Araújo, Simone Costa; Lima, José Bento Pereira; Valle, Denise

2018-01-01

Background In the tropics, the utilization of insecticides is still an important strategy for controlling Aedes aegypti, the principle vector of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses. However, increasing insecticide resistance in Ae. aegypti populations might hinder insecticide efficacy on a long-term basis. It will be important to understand the dynamics and evolution of insecticide resistance by assessing its frequency and the mechanisms by which it occurs. Methodology/Principal findings The insecticide resistance status of four Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations was monitored. Quantitative bioassays with the major insecticides employed in the country was performed: the adulticide deltamethrin (a pyrethroid—PY) and the larvicides, temephos (an organophosphate) and diflubenzuron (a chitin synthesis inhibitor). Temephos resistance was detected in all populations although exhibiting a slight decrease over time probably due to the interruption of field use. All vector populations were susceptible to diflubenzuron, recently introduced in the country to control Ae. aegypti. Resistance against deltamethrin was extremely high in three populations. Molecular assays investigated substitutions in the voltage gated sodium channel (NaV), the PY target site, at positions 1011, 1016 and 1534. Elevated frequencies of substitutions Val1016Ile and Phe1534Cys related to high PY resistance levels were identified. Biochemical assays detected alterations in the activities of two detoxifying enzyme classes related to metabolic resistance, glutathion-S-transferases and esterases. The results obtained were evaluated in the context of both recent insecticide use and the records of dengue incidence in each locality. Conclusions/Significance The four Ae. aegypti populations evaluated were resistant to the neurotoxic insecticides, temephos and deltamethrin. However, they were still susceptible to diflubenzuron. A probable correlation between adult insect resistance to PY and the domestic application of insecticides is discussed, pointing to the need for awareness measures regarding the correct utilization by citizens. This work aims to contribute to the efficient and rational management of Ae. aegypti control of both larvae and adults. PMID:29432488

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

2015-01-01

Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The sustainability of subsistence hunting by Matsigenka native communities in Manu National Park, Peru.

PubMed

Ohl-Schacherer, Julia; Shepard, Glenn H; Kaplan, Hillard; Peres, Carlos A; Levi, Taal; Yu, Douglas W

2007-10-01

The presence of indigenous people in tropical parks has fueled a debate over whether people in parks are conservation allies or direct threats to biodiversity. A well-known example is the Matsigenka (or Machiguenga) population residing in Manu National Park in Peruvian Amazonia. Because the exploitation of wild meat (or bushmeat), especially large vertebrates, represents the most significant internal threat to biodiversity in Manu, we analyzed 1 year of participatory monitoring of game offtake in two Matsigenka native communities within Manu Park (102,397 consumer days and 2,089 prey items). We used the Robinson and Redford (1991) index to identify five prey species hunted at or above maximum sustainable yield within the approximately 150-km(2) core hunting zones of the two communities: woolly monkey (Lagothrix lagotricha), spider monkey (Ateles chamek), white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), Razor-billed Currasow (Mitu tuberosa), and Spix's Guan (Penelope jacquacu). There was little or no evidence that any of these five species has become depleted, other than locally, despite a near doubling of the human population since 1988. Hunter-prey profiles have not changed since 1988, and there has been little change in per capita consumption rates or mean prey weights. The current offtake by the Matsigenka appears to be sustainable, apparently due to source-sink dynamics. Source-sink dynamics imply that even with continued human population growth within a settlement, offtake for each hunted species will eventually reach an asymptote. Thus, stabilizing the Matsigenka population around existing settlements should be a primary policy goal for Manu Park.

New insights into the molecular epidemiology and population genetics of Schistosoma mansoni in Ugandan pre-school children and mothers.

PubMed

Betson, Martha; Sousa-Figueiredo, Jose C; Kabatereine, Narcis B; Stothard, J Russell

2013-01-01

Significant numbers of pre-school children are infected with Schistosoma mansoni in sub-Saharan Africa and are likely to play a role in parasite transmission. However, they are currently excluded from control programmes. Molecular phylogenetic studies have provided insights into the evolutionary origins and transmission dynamics of S. mansoni, but there has been no research into schistosome molecular epidemiology in pre-school children. Here, we investigated the genetic diversity and population structure of S. mansoni in pre-school children and mothers living in lakeshore communities in Uganda and monitored for changes over time after praziquantel treatment. Parasites were sampled from children (<6 years) and mothers enrolled in the longitudinal Schistosomiasis Mothers and Infants Study at baseline and at 6-, 12- and 18-month follow-up surveys. 1347 parasites from 35 mothers and 45 children were genotyped by direct sequencing of the cytochrome c oxidase (cox1) gene. The cox1 region was highly diverse with over 230 unique sequences identified. Parasite populations were genetically differentiated between lakes and non-synonymous mutations were more diverse at Lake Victoria than Lake Albert. Surprisingly, parasite populations sampled from children showed a similar genetic diversity to those sampled from mothers, pointing towards a non-linear relationship between duration of exposure and accumulation of parasite diversity. The genetic diversity six months after praziquantel treatment was similar to pre-treatment diversity. Our results confirm the substantial genetic diversity of S. mansoni in East Africa and provide significant insights into transmission dynamics within young children and mothers, important information for schistosomiasis control programmes.

Circular dichroism and site-directed spin labeling reveal structural and dynamical features of high-pressure states of myoglobin

PubMed Central

Lerch, Michael T.; Horwitz, Joseph; McCoy, John; Hubbell, Wayne L.

2013-01-01

Excited states of proteins may play important roles in function, yet are difficult to study spectroscopically because of their sparse population. High hydrostatic pressure increases the equilibrium population of excited states, enabling their characterization [Akasaka K (2003) Biochemistry 42:10875–85]. High-pressure site-directed spin-labeling EPR (SDSL-EPR) was developed recently to map the site-specific structure and dynamics of excited states populated by pressure. To monitor global secondary structure content by circular dichroism (CD) at high pressure, a modified optical cell using a custom MgF2 window with a reduced aperture is introduced. Here, a combination of SDSL-EPR and CD is used to map reversible structural transitions in holomyoglobin and apomyoglobin (apoMb) as a function of applied pressure up to 2 kbar. CD shows that the high-pressure excited state of apoMb at pH 6 has helical content identical to that of native apoMb, but reversible changes reflecting the appearance of a conformational ensemble are observed by SDSL-EPR, suggesting a helical topology that fluctuates slowly on the EPR time scale. Although the high-pressure state of apoMb at pH 6 has been referred to as a molten globule, the data presented here reveal significant differences from the well-characterized pH 4.1 molten globule of apoMb. Pressure-populated states of both holomyoglobin and apoMb at pH 4.1 have significantly less helical structure, and for the latter, that may correspond to a transient folding intermediate. PMID:24248390

Supermarket sales data: feasibility and applicability in population food and nutrition monitoring.

PubMed

Tin, Sandar Tin; Mhurchu, Cliona Ni; Bullen, Chris

2007-01-01

Population food and nutrition monitoring plays a critical role in understanding suboptimal nutrition at the population level, yet current monitoring methods such as national surveys are not practical to undertake on a continuous basis. Supermarket sales data potentially address this gap by providing detailed, timely, and inexpensive monitoring data for informing policies and anticipating trends. This paper reviews 22 studies that used supermarket sales data to examine food purchasing patterns. Despite some methodological limitations, feasibility studies showed promising results. The potential and limitations of using supermarket sales data to supplement food and nutrition monitoring methods are discussed.

Long-Term Monitoring of Water Dynamics in the Sahel Region Using the Multi-Sar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertram, A.; Wendleder, A.; Schmitt, A.; Huber, M.

2016-06-01

Fresh water is a scarce resource in the West-African Sahel region, seasonally influenced by droughts and floods. Particularly in terms of climate change, the importance of wetlands increases for flora, fauna, human population, agriculture, livestock and fishery. Hence, access to open water is a key factor. Long-term monitoring of water dynamics is of great importance, especially with regard to the spatio-temporal extend of wetlands and drylands. It can predict future trends and facilitate the development of adequate management strategies. Lake Tabalak, a Ramsar wetland of international importance, is one of the most significant ponds in Niger and a refuge for waterbirds. Nevertheless, human population growth increased the pressure on this ecosystem, which is now degrading for all uses. The main objective of the study is a long-term monitoring of the Lake Tabalak's water dynamics to delineate permanent and seasonal water bodies, using weather- and daytime-independent multi-sensor and multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data available for the study area. Data of the following sensors from 1993 until 2016 are used: Sentinel-1A, TerraSARX, ALOS PALSAR-1/2, Envisat ASAR, RADARSAT-1/2, and ERS-1/2. All SAR data are processed with the Multi-SAR-System, unifying the different characteristics of all above mentioned sensors in terms of geometric, radiometric and polarimetric resolution to a consistent format. The polarimetric representation in Kennaugh elements allows fusing single-polarized data acquired by older sensors with multi-polarized data acquired by current sensors. The TANH-normalization guarantees a consistent and therefore comparable description in a closed data range in terms of radiometry. The geometric aspect is solved by projecting all images to an earth-fixed coordinate system correcting the brightness by the help of the incidence angle. The elevation model used in the geocoding step is the novel global model produced by the TanDEM-X satellite mission. The advantage of the Multi-SAR-System is that it comprises ortho-rectification, radiometric enhancement, normalization and Kennaugh decomposition, independent from sensors, modes, polarizations or acquisition date of SAR data. In addition, optical satellite data can be included as well, to fill gaps where SAR data are missing due to the special normalization scheme. This kind of pre-processing is exclusively implemented at the Earth Observation Center of the German Aerospace Center in Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany. Therefore, the dynamic change of the open water of the Lake Tabalak could be classified over dry and rainy seasons and years, using different SAR data. The study provides a unique database and contributes to a better understanding of wetland systems in the Sahel region influenced by human pressure and climate change.

Enhanced surveillance strategies for detecting and monitoring chronic wasting disease in free-ranging cervids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this document is to provide wildlife management agencies with the foundation upon which they can build scientifically rigorous and cost-effective surveillance and monitoring programs for chronic wasting disease (CWD) or refine their existing programs. The first chapter provides an overview of potential demographic and spatial risk factors of susceptible wildlife populations that may be exploited for CWD surveillance and monitoring. The information contained in this chapter explores historic as well as recent developments in our understanding of CWD disease dynamics. It also contains many literature references for readers who may desire a more thorough review of the topics or CWD in general. The second chapter examines methods for enhancing efforts to detect CWD on the landscape where it is not presently known to exist and focuses on the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the surveillance program. Specifically, it describes the means of exploiting current knowledge of demographic and spatial risk factors, as described in the first chapter, through a two-stage surveillance scheme that utilizes traditional design-based sampling approaches and novel statistical methods to incorporate information about the attributes of the landscape, environment, populations and individual animals into CWD surveillance activities. By accounting for these attributes, efficiencies can be gained and cost-savings can be realized. The final chapter is unique in relation to the first two chapters. Its focus is on designing programs to monitor CWD once it is discovered within a jurisdiction. Unlike the prior chapters that are more detailed or prescriptive, this chapter by design is considerably more general because providing comprehensive direction for creating monitoring programs for jurisdictions without consideration of their monitoring goals, sociopolitical constraints, or their biological systems, is not possible. Therefore, the authors draw upon their collective experiences implementing disease-monitoring programs to present the important questions to consider, potential tools, and various strategies for those wildlife management agencies endeavoring to create or maintain a CWD monitoring program. Its intent is to aid readers in creating efficient and cost-effective monitoring programs, while avoiding potential pitfalls. It is hoped that these three chapters will be useful tools for wildlife managers struggling to implement efficient and effective CWD disease management programs.

Bet-hedging in bacteriocin producing Escherichia coli populations: the single cell perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayramoglu, Bihter; Toubiana, David; van Vliet, Simon; Inglis, R. Fredrik; Shnerb, Nadav; Gillor, Osnat

2017-02-01

Production of public goods in biological systems is often a collaborative effort that may be detrimental to the producers. It is therefore sustainable only if a small fraction of the population shoulders the cost while the majority reap the benefits. We modelled this scenario using Escherichia coli populations producing colicins, an antibiotic that kills producer cells’ close relatives. Colicin expression is a costly trait, and it has been proposed that only a small fraction of the population actively expresses the antibiotic. Colicinogenic populations were followed at the single-cell level using time-lapse microscopy, and showed two distinct, albeit dynamic, subpopulations: the majority silenced colicin expression, while a small fraction of elongated, slow-growing cells formed colicin-expressing hotspots, placing a significant burden on expressers. Moreover, monitoring lineages of individual colicinogenic cells showed stochastic switching between expressers and non-expressers. Hence, colicin expressers may be engaged in risk-reducing strategies—or bet-hedging—as they balance the cost of colicin production with the need to repel competitors. To test the bet-hedging strategy in colicin-mediated interactions, competitions between colicin-sensitive and producer cells were simulated using a numerical model, demonstrating a finely balanced expression range that is essential to sustaining the colicinogenic population.

Monitoring Bridge Dynamic Deformation in Vibration by Digital Photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Chengxin; Zhang, Guojian; Liu, Xiaodong; Fan, Li; Hai, Hua

2018-01-01

This study adopts digital photography to monitor bridge dynamic deformation in vibration. Digital photography in this study is based on PST-TBPM (photographing scale transformation-time baseline parallax method). Firstly, we monitor the bridge in static as a zero image. Then, we continuously monitor the bridge in vibration as the successive images. Based on the reference points on each image, PST-TBPM is used to calculate the images to obtain the dynamic deformation values of these deformation points. Results show that the average measurement accuracies are 0.685 pixels (0.51mm) and 0.635 pixels (0.47mm) in X and Z direction, respectively. The maximal deformations in X and Z direction of the bridge are 4.53 pixels and 5.21 pixels, respectively. PST-TBPM is valid in solving the problem that the photographing direction is not perpendicular to the bridge. Digital photography in this study can be used to assess bridge health through monitoring the dynamic deformation of a bridge in vibration. The deformation trend curves also can warn the possible dangers over time.

Study on application of dynamic monitoring of land use based on mobile GIS technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Jingyi; Chu, Jian; Guo, Jianxing; Wang, Lixin

2006-10-01

The land use dynamic monitoring is an important mean to maintain the real-time update of the land use data. Mobile GIS technology integrates GIS, GPS and Internet. It can update the historic al data in real time with site-collected data and realize the data update in large scale with high precision. The Monitoring methods on the land use change data with the mobile GIS technology were discussed. Mobile terminal of mobile GIS has self-developed for this study with GPS-25 OEM and notebook computer. The RTD (real-time difference) operation mode is selected. Mobile GIS system of dynamic monitoring of land use have developed with Visual C++ as operation platform, MapObjects control as graphic platform and MSCmm control as communication platform, which realizes organic integration of GPS, GPRS and GIS. This system has such following basic functions as data processing, graphic display, graphic editing, attribute query and navigation. Qinhuangdao city was selected as the experiential area. Shown by the study result, the mobile GIS integration system of dynamic monitoring of land use developed by this study has practical application value.

Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

Treesearch

Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah Peery

2013-01-01

Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

The use of mist nets as a tool for bird population monitoring

Treesearch

E.H. Dunn; C. John Ralph

2004-01-01

Mist nets are an important tool for population monitoring, here defi ned as assessment of species composition, relative abundance, population size, and demography. We review the strengths and limitations of mist netting for monitoring purposes, based on papers in this volume and other literature. Advantages of using mist nets over aural or visual count methods include...

Evaluative Research in Population Education: Manual Arising out of a Regional Training Workshop (Manila, May 20-31, 1985). Population Education Programme Service.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Regional Office for Education in Asia and the Pacific.

This manual presents the very basics of monitoring, evaluation, and evaluative research as applied to population education. It is designed for beginners and is useful to project staff charged with the responsibility of monitoring, evaluation, and research. Chapter 1 discusses monitoring and evaluation. Chapter 2 examines evaluative research…

Ethical issues in using Twitter for population-level depression monitoring: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Mikal, Jude; Hurst, Samantha; Conway, Mike

2016-04-14

Recently, significant research effort has focused on using Twitter (and other social media) to investigate mental health at the population-level. While there has been influential work in developing ethical guidelines for Internet discussion forum-based research in public health, there is currently limited work focused on addressing ethical problems in Twitter-based public health research, and less still that considers these issues from users' own perspectives. In this work, we aim to investigate public attitudes towards utilizing public domain Twitter data for population-level mental health monitoring using a qualitative methodology. The study explores user perspectives in a series of five, 2-h focus group interviews. Following a semi-structured protocol, 26 Twitter users with and without a diagnosed history of depression discussed general Twitter use, along with privacy expectations, and ethical issues in using social media for health monitoring, with a particular focus on mental health monitoring. Transcripts were then transcribed, redacted, and coded using a constant comparative approach. While participants expressed a wide range of opinions, there was an overall trend towards a relatively positive view of using public domain Twitter data as a resource for population level mental health monitoring, provided that results are appropriately aggregated. Results are divided into five sections: (1) a profile of respondents' Twitter use patterns and use variability; (2) users' privacy expectations, including expectations regarding data reach and permanence; (3) attitudes towards social media based population-level health monitoring in general, and attitudes towards mental health monitoring in particular; (4) attitudes towards individual versus population-level health monitoring; and (5) users' own recommendations for the appropriate regulation of population-level mental health monitoring. Focus group data reveal a wide range of attitudes towards the use of public-domain social media "big data" in population health research, from enthusiasm, through acceptance, to opposition. Study results highlight new perspectives in the discussion of ethical use of public data, particularly with respect to consent, privacy, and oversight.

Monitoring intracranial pressure based on F-P

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Ting; Tong, Xinglin; Chen, Guangxi

2013-09-01

Intracranial pressure is an important monitoring indicator of neurosurgery. In this paper we adopt all-fiber FP fiber optic sensor, using a minimally invasive operation to realize real-time dynamic monitoring intracranial pressure of the hemorrhage rats, and observe their intracranial pressure regularity of dynamic changes. Preliminary results verify the effectiveness of applications and feasibility, providing some basis for human brain minimally invasive intracranial pressure measurement.

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

2011-11-01

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Visual counts as an index of White-Tailed Prairie Dog density

USGS Publications Warehouse

Menkens, George E.; Biggins, Dean E.; Anderson, Stanley H.

1990-01-01

Black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) are depended on prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) for food and shelter and were historically restricted to prairie dog towns (Anderson et al. 1986). Because ferrets and prairie dogs are closely associated, successful ferret management and conservation depends on successful prairie dog management. A critical component of any management program for ferrets will be monitoring prairie dog population dynamics on towns containing ferrets or on towns proposed as ferret reintroduction sites. Three techniques for estimating prairie dog population size and density are counts of plugged and reopened burrows (Tietjen and Matschke 1982), mark-recapture (Otis et al. 1978; Seber 1982, 1986; Menkens and Anderson 1989), and visual counts (Fagerstone and Biggins 1986, Knowles 1986). The technique of plugging burrows and counting the number reopened by prairie dogs is too time and labor intensive for population evaluation on a large number of towns or over large areas. Total burrow counts are not correlated with white-tailed prairie dog (C. leucurus) densities and thus cannot be used for populated evaluation (Menkens et al. 1988). Mark-recapture requires trapping that is expensive and time and labor intensive. Monitoring a large number of prairie dog populations using mark-recapture would be difficult. Alternatively a large number of populations could be monitored in short periods of time using the visual count technique (Fagerstone and Biggins 1986, Knowles 1986). However, the accuracy of visual counts has only been evaluated in a few locations. Thus, it is not known whether the relationship between counts and prairie dog density is consistent throughout the prairie dog's range. Our objective was to evaluate the potential of using visual counts as a rapid means of estimating white-tailed prairie dog density in prairie dog towns throughout Wyoming. We studied 18 white-tailed prairie dog towns in 4 white-tailed prairie dog complexes in Wyoming near Laramie (105°40'W, 41°20'N, 3 grids), Pathfinder reservoir (106°55'W, 42°30'N, 6 grids), Shirley Basin (106°10'W, 42°20'N, 6 grids), and Meeteetse (108°10'W, 44°10'N, 3 grids). All towns were dominated by grasses, forbs, and shrubs (details in Collins and Lichvar 1986). Topography of towns ranged from flat to gently rolling hills.

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

Market dynamics of community pharmacies in Minnesota, U.S. from 1992 through 2012.

PubMed

Schommer, Jon C; Yusuf, Akeem A; Hadsall, Ronald S

2014-01-01

An understanding of community pharmacy market dynamics is important for monitoring access points for pharmacist services. The purpose of this study was to describe (1) changes in pharmacy mix (independent versus chain) between 1992 and 2002 and between 2002 and 2012 for 87 counties in Minnesota (state in U.S.) and (2) the number (and proportion) of community pharmacies in Minnesota for the years 1992, 2002, and 2012 using a new categorization method developed specifically for this study. Data included licensure records for 1992, 2002, and 2012 from the State of Minnesota Board of Pharmacy and county level demographics for 1990, 2000 and 2010 from the US Census Bureau. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize findings over time and to describe associations between study variables. The ratio of independent pharmacies to chain pharmacies changed from approximately 2:1 in 1992 to 1:2 in 2012. The primary market factors associated with changes in the number of community pharmacies per county were (1) the metropolitan designation of the county and (2) whether the population density (persons/square mile) was increasing or decreasing. The face of community pharmacy in Minnesota changed between 1992 and 2012. By 2012, pharmacies were located in traditional retail pharmacies, mass merchandiser outlets, supermarkets, and clinics/medical centers. Furthermore, specialty pharmacies grew in proportion to meet patient needs. Between 1992 and 2012, the market dynamics of community pharmacies in Minnesota was characterized by vigorous market entry and exit. In light of recent health reform that is exhibiting characteristics such as continuity-of-care models, performance-based payment, technology advances, and the care of patients becoming more "ambulatory" (versus in-patient), we suggest that the market dynamics of community pharmacies will continue to exhibit vigorous market entry and exit in this new environment. It is proposed that the community pharmacy categories developed for this study will be useful for monitoring market dynamics in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Protein Structure and Dynamics Using Co-Solvents, Photochemical Triggers, and Site-Specific Spectroscopic Probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaskharon, Rachel M.

As ubiquitous and diverse biopolymers, proteins are dynamic molecules that are constantly engaging in inter- and intramolecular interactions responsible for their structure, fold, and function. Because of this, gaining a comprehensive understanding of the factors that control protein conformation and dynamics remains elusive as current experimental techniques often lack the ability to initiate and probe a specific interaction or conformational transition. For this reason, this thesis aims to develop methods to control and monitor protein conformations, conformational transitions, and dynamics in a site-specific manner, as well as to understand how specific and non-specific interactions affect the protein folding energy landscape. First, by using the co-solvent, trifluoroethanol (TFE), we show that the rate at which a peptide folds can be greatly impacted and thus controlled by the excluded volume effect. Secondly, we demonstrate the utility of several light-responsive molecules and reactions as methods to manipulate and investigate protein-folding processes. Using an azobenzene linker as a photo-initiator, we are able to increase the folding rate of a protein system by an order of magnitude by channeling a sub-population through a parallel, faster folding pathway. Additionally, we utilize a tryptophan-mediated electron transfer process to a nearby disulfide bond to strategically unfold a protein molecule with ultraviolet light. We also demonstrate the potential of two ruthenium polypyridyl complexes as ultrafast phototriggers of protein reactions. Finally, we develop several site-specific spectroscopic probes of protein structure and environment. Specifically, we demonstrate that a 13C-labeled aspartic acid residue constitutes a useful site-specific infrared probe for investigating salt-bridges and hydration dynamics of proteins, particularly in proteins containing several acidic amino acids. We also show that a proline-derivative, 4-oxoproline, possesses novel infrared properties that can be exploited to monitor the cis-trans isomerization process of individual proline residues in proteins.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

PubMed Central

Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

1999-01-01

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

Establishment of Peripheral Nerve Injury Data Repository to Monitor and Support Population Health Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-0-DM167033 TITLE: Establishment of Peripheral Nerve Injury Data Repository to Monitor and Support Population Health...Injury Data Repository to Monitor and Support Population Health Decisions 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-16-0-DM167033 5c. PROGRAM...patient enrollment. Collected data will be utilized to 1) describe the outcomes of various PNI and 2) suggest outcomes that support population health

Recent advances in applying mass spectrometry and systems biology to determine brain dynamics.

PubMed

Scifo, Enzo; Calza, Giulio; Fuhrmann, Martin; Soliymani, Rabah; Baumann, Marc; Lalowski, Maciej

2017-06-01

Neurological disorders encompass various pathologies which disrupt normal brain physiology and function. Poor understanding of their underlying molecular mechanisms and their societal burden argues for the necessity of novel prevention strategies, early diagnostic techniques and alternative treatment options to reduce the scale of their expected increase. Areas covered: This review scrutinizes mass spectrometry based approaches used to investigate brain dynamics in various conditions, including neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. Different proteomics workflows for isolation/enrichment of specific cell populations or brain regions, sample processing; mass spectrometry technologies, for differential proteome quantitation, analysis of post-translational modifications and imaging approaches in the brain are critically deliberated. Future directions, including analysis of cellular sub-compartments, targeted MS platforms (selected/parallel reaction monitoring) and use of mass cytometry are also discussed. Expert commentary: Here, we summarize and evaluate current mass spectrometry based approaches for determining brain dynamics in health and diseases states, with a focus on neurological disorders. Furthermore, we provide insight on current trends and new MS technologies with potential to improve this analysis.

Correction for photobleaching in dynamic fluorescence microscopy: application in the assessment of pharmacokinetic parameters in ultrasound-mediated drug delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derieppe, M.; Bos, C.; de Greef, M.; Moonen, C.; de Senneville, B. Denis

2016-01-01

We have previously demonstrated the feasibility of monitoring ultrasound-mediated uptake of a hydrophilic model drug in real time with dynamic confocal fluorescence microscopy. In this study, we evaluate and correct the impact of photobleaching to improve the accuracy of pharmacokinetic parameter estimates. To model photobleaching of the fluorescent model drug SYTOX Green, a photobleaching process was added to the current two-compartment model describing cell uptake. After collection of the uptake profile, a second acquisition was performed when SYTOX Green was equilibrated, to evaluate the photobleaching rate experimentally. Photobleaching rates up to 5.0 10-3 s-1 were measured when applying power densities up to 0.2 W.cm-2. By applying the three-compartment model, the model drug uptake rate of 6.0 10-3 s-1 was measured independent of the applied laser power. The impact of photobleaching on uptake rate estimates measured by dynamic fluorescence microscopy was evaluated. Subsequent compensation improved the accuracy of pharmacokinetic parameter estimates in the cell population subjected to sonopermeabilization.

Utilizing GCaMP transgenic mice to monitor endogenous Gq/11-coupled receptors

PubMed Central

Partridge, John G.

2015-01-01

The family of GCaMPs are engineered proteins that contain Ca2+ binding motifs within a circularly permutated variant of the Aequorea Victoria green fluorescent protein (cp-GFP). The rapidly advancing field of utilizing GCaMP reporter constructs represents a major step forward in our ability to monitor intracellular Ca2+ dynamics. With the use of these genetically encoded Ca2+ sensors, investigators have studied activation of endogenous Gq types of G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) and subsequent rises in intracellular calcium. Escalations in intracellular Ca2+ from GPCR activation can be faithfully monitored in space and time as an increase in fluorescent emission from these proteins. Further, transgenic mice are now commercially available that express GCaMPs in a Cre recombinase dependent fashion. These GCaMP reporter mice can be bred to distinct Cre recombinase driver mice to direct expression of this sensor in unique populations of cells. Concerning the central nervous system (CNS), sources of calcium influx, including those arising from Gq activation can be observed in targeted cell types like neurons or astrocytes. This powerful genetic method allows simultaneous monitoring of the activity of dozens of cells upon activation of endogenous Gq-coupled GPCRs. Therefore, in combination with pharmacological tools, this strategy of monitoring GPCR activation is amenable to analysis of orthosteric and allosteric ligands of Gq-coupled receptors in their endogenous environments. PMID:25805995

Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Derek M. Johnson; Ottar N. Bj& #248rnstad

2006-01-01

Explanations for the ubiquitous presence of spatially synchronous population dynamics have assumed that density-dependent processes governing the dynamics of local populations are identical among disjunct populations, and low levels of dispersal or small amounts of regionalized stochasticity ("Moran effect") can act to synchronize populations. In this study...

A time-lapse photography method for monitoring salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) passage and abundance in streams

PubMed Central

Leacock, William B.; Eby, Lisa A.; Stanford, Jack A.

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating population sizes is often a critical component of fisheries research and management. Although there is a growing appreciation of the importance of small-scale salmon population dynamics to the stability of salmon stock-complexes, our understanding of these populations is constrained by a lack of efficient and cost-effective monitoring tools for streams. Weirs are expensive, labor intensive, and can disrupt natural fish movements. While conventional video systems avoid some of these shortcomings, they are expensive and require excessive amounts of labor to review footage for data collection. Here, we present a novel method for quantifying salmon in small streams (<15 m wide, <1 m deep) that uses both time-lapse photography and video in a model-based double sampling scheme. This method produces an escapement estimate nearly as accurate as a video-only approach, but with substantially less labor, money, and effort. It requires servicing only every 14 days, detects salmon 24 h/day, is inexpensive, and produces escapement estimates with confidence intervals. In addition to escapement estimation, we present a method for estimating in-stream salmon abundance across time, data needed by researchers interested in predator--prey interactions or nutrient subsidies. We combined daily salmon passage estimates with stream specific estimates of daily mortality developed using previously published data. To demonstrate proof of concept for these methods, we present results from two streams in southwest Kodiak Island, Alaska in which high densities of sockeye salmon spawn. PMID:27326378

Real-time monitoring system of composite aircraft wings utilizing Fibre Bragg Grating sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorathin, E.; Hafizi, Z. M.; Che Ghani, S. A.; Lim, K. S.

2016-10-01

Embedment of Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensor in composite aircraft wings leads to the advancement of structural condition monitoring. The monitored aircraft wings have the capability to give real-time response under critical loading circumstances. The main objective of this paper is to develop a real-time FBG monitoring system for composite aircraft wings to view real-time changes when the structure undergoes some static loadings and dynamic impact. The implementation of matched edge filter FBG interrogation system to convert wavelength variations to strain readings shows that the structure is able to response instantly in real-time when undergoing few loadings and dynamic impact. This smart monitoring system is capable of updating the changes instantly in real-time and shows the weight induced on the composite aircraft wings instantly without any error. It also has a good agreement with acoustic emission (AE) sensor in the dynamic test.

Microbial composition affects the performance of an artificial Tephritid larval diet.

PubMed

Rempoulakis, P; Sela Saldinger, S; Nemny-Lavy, E; Pinto, R; Birke, A; Nestel, D

2017-09-20

The present study investigated the patterns of microorganisms in an artificial larval diet during Dacus ciliatus (Diptera; Tephritidae) larval development. Microbial population contents in the diet of total heterotrophic bacteria, yeast and molds, coliform and lactobacilli, and their dynamics during development, were monitored. Initially, the microbial composition in diet trays failing to produce viable pupae and in trays successfully producing pupae and adult flies was characterized. The failing diet trays contained large populations of lactobacilli that increased during larval development, and low populations of coliforms. In contrast, the successful diet showed an increasing population of coliforms and a low, or undetected, population of lactobacilli. To study the hypothesis that lactobacilli affect D. ciliatus larval development, we conducted controlled inoculation experiments in which Lactobacillus plantarum was added into fresh diet at the time of egg seeding. L. plantarum inoculated trays showed no production of D. ciliatus. Control trays without lactobacilli inoculation showed variable results. One tray successfully produced viable pupae and adults, and showed a slight and slow increase in the indigenous populations of lactobacilli. The second tray, however, failed to produce pupae and showed a fast increase of the indigenous lactobacilli to very high levels. Monitored pH trends in L. plantarum-inoculated diet showed a sharp pH decrease during the first 4 days of larval development from 5 to less than 4 units, while successful diet, producing viable D. ciliatus pupae and adults, showed a moderate pH drop during most of the larval development period. The paper discusses the possible ecological interactions between D. ciliatus larvae, the microbial content of the diet and the physical properties of the diet. The discussion also points out at the usefulness of this approach in understanding and managing mass production parameters of tephritid fruit flies industrial diets used for Sterile Insect Technique.

Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dugger, Bruce D.; Coluccy, John M.; Dugger, Katie M.; Fox, Trevor T.; Kraege, Donald K.; Petrie, Mark J.

2016-01-01

Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of mallards in eastern Washington.

Control of retinal isomerization in bacteriorhodopsin in the high-intensity regime

PubMed Central

Florean, Andrei C.; Cardoza, David; White, James L.; Lanyi, J. K.; Sension, Roseanne J.; Bucksbaum, Philip H.

2009-01-01

A learning algorithm was used to manipulate optical pulse shapes and optimize retinal isomerization in bacteriorhodopsin, for excitation levels up to 1.8 × 1016 photons per square centimeter. Below 1/3 the maximum excitation level, the yield was not sensitive to pulse shape. Above this level the learning algorithm found that a Fourier-transform-limited (TL) pulse maximized the 13-cis population. For this optimal pulse the yield increases linearly with intensity well beyond the saturation of the first excited state. To understand these results we performed systematic searches varying the chirp and energy of the pump pulses while monitoring the isomerization yield. The results are interpreted including the influence of 1-photon and multiphoton transitions. The population dynamics in each intermediate conformation and the final branching ratio between the all-trans and 13-cis isomers are modified by changes in the pulse energy and duration. PMID:19564608

Nonradiative relaxation in tunable solid state laser crystals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gayen, S. K.; Wang, W. B.; Petricevic, V.; Alfano, R. R.

1986-01-01

The characteristics of nonradiative transitions between the 4T2 and 2E excited states of trivalent-chromium-ion-activated ruby (containing 0.04 percent Cr2O3 by weight) and alexandrite (containing 0.4 at. percent chromium ion) laser crystals were studied using the technique described by Gayen et al. (1985). In this technique, a 527-nm pulse excites the 4T2 band of the Cr(3+), and the subsequent population kinetics among excited states is monitored by an IR picosecond probe pulse as a function of pump-probe delay. In ruby, a resolution-limited sharp rise in the excited state population was followed by a long-lifetime decay, leading to an upper limit of 7 ps for the 4T2-state nonradiative lifetime. In alexandrite, a longer rise time was followed by a multicomponent decay. A theoretical model is proposed for explaining the induced absorption and the transition dynamics observed in these crystals.

Conservation challenges and research needs for Pacific lamprey in the Columbia River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clemens, Benjamin J.; Beamish, Richard J.; Coates, Kelly C.; Docker, Margaret F.; Dunham, Jason B.; Gray, Ann E.; Hess, Jon E.; Jolley, Jeffrey C.; Lampman, Ralph T.; McIlraith, Brian J.; Moser, Mary L.; Murauskas, Joshua G.; Noakes, David L. G.; Schaller, Howard A.; Schreck, Carl B.; Starcevich, Steven J.; Streif, Bianca; van de Wetering, Stan J.; Wade, Joy; Weitkamp, Laurie A.; Wyss, Lance A.

2017-01-01

The Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus, an anadromous fish native to the northern Pacific Ocean and bordering freshwater habitats, has recently experienced steep declines in abundance and range contractions along the West Coast of North America. During the early 1990s, Native American tribes recognized the declining numbers of lamprey and championed their importance. In 2012, 26 entities signed a conservation agreement to coordinate and implement restoration and research for Pacific Lamprey. Regional plans have identified numerous threats, monitoring needs, and strategies to conserve and restore Pacific Lamprey during their freshwater life stages. Prime among these are needs to improve lamprey passage, restore freshwater habitats, educate stakeholders, and implement lamprey-specific research and management protocols. Key unknowns include range-wide trends in status, population dynamics, population delineation, limiting factors, and marine influences. We synthesize these key unknowns, with a focus on the freshwater life stages of lamprey in the Columbia River basin.

Structure and Dynamics of the Shark Assemblage off Recife, Northeastern Brazil

PubMed Central

Afonso, André S.; Andrade, Humber A.; Hazin, Fábio H. V.

2014-01-01

Understanding the ecological factors that regulate elasmobranch abundance in nearshore waters is essential to effectively manage coastal ecosystems and promote conservation. However, little is known about elasmobranch populations in the western South Atlantic Ocean. An 8-year, standardized longline and drumline survey conducted in nearshore waters off Recife, northeastern Brazil, allowed us to describe the shark assemblage and to monitor abundance dynamics using zero-inflated generalized additive models. This region is mostly used by several carcharhinids and one ginglymostomid, but sphyrnids are also present. Blacknose sharks, Carcharhinus acronotus, were mostly mature individuals and declined in abundance throughout the survey, contrasting with nurse sharks, Ginglymostoma cirratum, which proliferated possibly due to this species being prohibited from all harvest since 2004 in this region. Tiger sharks, Galeocerdo cuvier, were mostly juveniles smaller than 200 cm and seem to use nearshore waters off Recife between January and September. No long-term trend in tiger shark abundance was discernible. Spatial distribution was similar in true coastal species (i.e. blacknose and nurse sharks) whereas tiger sharks were most abundant at the middle continental shelf. The sea surface temperature, tidal amplitude, wind direction, water turbidity, and pluviosity were all selected to predict shark abundance off Recife. Interspecific variability in abundance dynamics across spatiotemporal and environmental gradients suggest that the ecological processes regulating shark abundance are generally independent between species, which could add complexity to multi-species fisheries management frameworks. Yet, further research is warranted to ascertain trends at population levels in the South Atlantic Ocean. PMID:25010514

Structure and dynamics of the shark assemblage off Recife, Northeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Afonso, André S; Andrade, Humber A; Hazin, Fábio H V

2014-01-01

Understanding the ecological factors that regulate elasmobranch abundance in nearshore waters is essential to effectively manage coastal ecosystems and promote conservation. However, little is known about elasmobranch populations in the western South Atlantic Ocean. An 8-year, standardized longline and drumline survey conducted in nearshore waters off Recife, northeastern Brazil, allowed us to describe the shark assemblage and to monitor abundance dynamics using zero-inflated generalized additive models. This region is mostly used by several carcharhinids and one ginglymostomid, but sphyrnids are also present. Blacknose sharks, Carcharhinus acronotus, were mostly mature individuals and declined in abundance throughout the survey, contrasting with nurse sharks, Ginglymostoma cirratum, which proliferated possibly due to this species being prohibited from all harvest since 2004 in this region. Tiger sharks, Galeocerdo cuvier, were mostly juveniles smaller than 200 cm and seem to use nearshore waters off Recife between January and September. No long-term trend in tiger shark abundance was discernible. Spatial distribution was similar in true coastal species (i.e. blacknose and nurse sharks) whereas tiger sharks were most abundant at the middle continental shelf. The sea surface temperature, tidal amplitude, wind direction, water turbidity, and pluviosity were all selected to predict shark abundance off Recife. Interspecific variability in abundance dynamics across spatiotemporal and environmental gradients suggest that the ecological processes regulating shark abundance are generally independent between species, which could add complexity to multi-species fisheries management frameworks. Yet, further research is warranted to ascertain trends at population levels in the South Atlantic Ocean.

Evaluation of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Oxytetracycline and Its Control Effect Against Citrus Huanglongbing via Trunk Injection.

PubMed

Hu, Jiahuai; Wang, Nian

2016-12-01

Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) or greening is a devastating bacterial disease that has destroyed millions of trees and is associated with phloem-residing 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' (Las) in Florida. In this study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamics of oxytetracycline in planta and its control effect against HLB via trunk injection. Las-infected 'Hamlin' sweet orange trees on 'Swingle' citrumelo rootstock at the early stage of decline were treated with oxytetracycline hydrochloride (OTC) using trunk injection with varying number of injection ports. Spatiotemporal distribution of OTC and dynamics of Las populations were monitored by high-performance liquid chromatography method and qPCR assay, respectively. Uniform distribution of OTC throughout tree canopies and root system was achieved 2 days postinjection. High levels of OTC (>850 µg/kg) were maintained in leaf and root for at least 1 month and moderate OTC (>500 µg/kg) persisted for more than 9 months. Reduction of Las populations in root system and leaves of OTC-treated trees were over 95% and 99% (i.e., 1.76 and 2.19 log reduction) between 2 and 28 days postinjection. Conditions of trees receiving OTC treatment were improved, fruit yield was increased, and juice acidity was lowered than water-injected control even though their differences were not statistically significant during the test period. Our study demonstrated that trunk injection of OTC could be used as an effective measure for integrated management of citrus HLB.

Can we enhance amphibians' habitat restoration in the post-mining areas?

PubMed

Klimaszewski, Krzysztof; Pacholik, Ewa; Snopek, Adam

2016-09-01

The study was aimed to evaluate the selected improvements of nature restoration in a depleted gravel pit. The study site consisted of four water reservoirs of different shapes and sizes, flooded after the gravel extraction ended. Ecological succession monitoring, conducted by the Warsaw University of Life Sciences students associated in the Student Scientific Association of Animal Sciences Faculty since the completion of mining, have focused on amphibians. A twofold approach upheld amphibian species population dynamics, as well as selected habitat elements. The restoration practices dedicated to habitat conditions enhancing have been proved to be definitely effective and useful for similar sites.

Monitoring of adult Lost River and shortnose suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir, California, 2008–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Hayes, Brian S.

2013-01-01

Problems with inferring status and population dynamics from size composition data can be overcome by a robust capture-recapture program that follows the histories of PIT-tagged individuals. Inferences from such a program are currently hindered by poor detection rates during spawning seasons with low flows in Willow Creek, which indicate that a key assumption of capture-recapture models is violated. We suggest that the most straightforward solution to this issue would be to collect detection data during the spawning season using remote PIT tag antennas in the strait between the west and east lobes of the lake.

The roles of physical habitat in reproduction and survival of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River, progress 2005–06: Chapter D in Factors affecting the reproduction, recruitment, habitat, and population dynamics of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon in the Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Johnson, Harold E.; Reuter, Joanna M.; Elliott, Caroline M.

2007-01-01

This report documents progress on three related components of habitat assessments in the Lower Missouri River during 2005–06. The habitat-use component links this research directly to sturgeon ecology research described in other chapters. The habitat availability and habitat dynamics assessments provide physical context for the ecological research. Results from 2005 to 2006 indicate that the methods developed to assess habitat use, quality, quantity, and dynamics are appropriate and sufficiently accurate to address critical questions about sturgeon habitat on the Lower Missouri River. Preliminary analysis of habitats occupied by adult female shovelnose sturgeon indicates that migrating sturgeon do not select for depth but seem to select for lower than reach-averaged velocities and higher than reach-averaged velocity gradients. Data collected to compile, calibrate, and validate multidimensional hydraulic models in probable spawning reaches appear to be sufficient to support the modeling objectives. Monitoring of selected channel cross sections and long profiles multiple times during the year showed little change at the upstreammost reach over the range of flows measured during 2006, likely because of channel stability associated with an armored bed. Geomorphic changes documented at monitoring cross sections increased with distance downstream. Hydroacoustic substrate-class parameters documented systematic changes with discharge and with hydraulic environment across the channel. Similarly, bed velocity varied predictably with discharge and hydraulic environment, indicating its potential as an indicator of bedload sediment transport. Longitudinal profiles showed substantial downstream movement of dunes over the monitored discharges, as well as substantial within-year variability in dune size. Observations of geomorphic change during the moderate flow range of 2006 support the hypothesis that the magnitude of flow modifications under consideration on the Lower Missouri River will be sufficient to transport sediment and potentially modify spawning habitats.

Phenology changes in the mayfly Ephemera danica in response to water temperature variations in the River Dove, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Matthew; Everall, Nicholas; Wilby, Robert

2015-04-01

Water temperature in rivers is critical to aquatic life. Climate and environmental change can elevate river temperatures to levels that stress fish, but impacts on other aquatic organisms are not well understood. In particular, rising temperatures are expected to alter the phenology of aquatic insects at levels substantially below those required to stress fish species. The phenology of the mayfly Ephemera danica, a large burrowing species that is widespread throughout Europe, is known to be sensitive to temperature change. To assess the temporal and spatial variability in mayfly emergence, E. danica were monitored at two reaches in the River Dove, English Peak District over the period 2007 to 2013. Variations in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) were modelled for an upstream site with an annual temperature range in excess of 15 ° C (Beresford Dale) and a downstream site, dominated by near constant discharges of cool groundwater with an annual range less than 8 ° C (Dovedale). The emergence of E. danica was strongly related to GDDs at each site. E. danica usually remains in an aquatic larval stage for two years before emerging in its adult, terrestrial form. However, after particularly warm summers in Beresford Dale, E. danica was recorded to emerge after only one year in its aquatic form. Following the particularly wet/cold year of 2012, E. danica began to revert back to a bi-annual cycle. In Dovedale, an average of 374 fewer GDDs were accumulated in comparison to Beresford Dale. As a result, E. danica maintained a two-year growth cycle throughout the monitoring period despite the phenology changes observed 8 km upstream at Beresford. Changes to insect phenology are significant because populations with a one-year cycle are potentially more vulnerable to adverse weather when the majority of the population is in terrestrial form. Also, altering the growth, development and size of insects affects reproductive success with implications for population dynamics. Data from the present study suggest that habitats near cool groundwater may provide important refugia for populations of insects, potentially delaying permanent shifts in phenology under climate change. Conventional monitoring of both water temperature and invertebrates, as used by regulatory authorities in the UK, did not identify the changes in insect phenology or the association between phenology and water temperature. Therefore, new monitoring strategies are required in order to identify important changes in aquatic populations in response to rising temperatures.

Type and Location of Wearable Sensors for Monitoring Falls during Static and Dynamic Tasks in Healthy Elderly: A Review

PubMed Central

Sorriso, Antonietta; Liparoti, Marianna; Ferraioli, Giampaolo; Sorrentino, Pierpaolo

2018-01-01

In recent years, the meaning of successful living has moved from extending lifetime to improving the quality of aging, mainly in terms of high cognitive and physical functioning together with avoiding diseases. In healthy elderly, falls represent an alarming accident both in terms of number of events and the consequent decrease in the quality of life. Stability control is a key approach for studying the genesis of falls, for detecting the event and trying to develop methodologies to prevent it. Wearable sensors have proved to be very useful in monitoring and analyzing the stability of subjects. Within this manuscript, a review of the approaches proposed in the literature for fall risk assessment, fall prevention and fall detection in healthy elderly is provided. The review has been carried out by using the most adopted publication databases and by defining a search strategy based on keywords and boolean algebra constructs. The analysis aims at evaluating the state of the art of such kind of monitoring, both in terms of most adopted sensor technologies and of their location on the human body. The review has been extended to both dynamic and static analyses. In order to provide a useful tool for researchers involved in this field, the manuscript also focuses on the tests conducted in the analyzed studies, mainly in terms of characteristics of the population involved and of the tasks used. Finally, the main trends related to sensor typology, sensor location and tasks have been identified. PMID:29783647

Cluster categorization of urban roads to optimize their noise monitoring.

PubMed

Zambon, G; Benocci, R; Brambilla, G

2016-01-01

Road traffic in urban areas is recognized to be associated with urban mobility and public health, and it is often the main source of noise pollution. Lately, noise maps have been considered a powerful tool to estimate the population exposure to environmental noise, but they need to be validated by measured noise data. The project Dynamic Acoustic Mapping (DYNAMAP), co-funded in the framework of the LIFE 2013 program, is aimed to develop a statistically based method to optimize the choice and the number of monitoring sites and to automate the noise mapping update using the data retrieved from a low-cost monitoring network. Indeed, the first objective should improve the spatial sampling based on the legislative road classification, as this classification is mainly based on the geometrical characteristics of the road, rather than its noise emission. The present paper describes the statistical approach of the methodology under development and the results of its preliminary application to a limited sample of roads in the city of Milan. The resulting categorization of roads, based on clustering the 24-h hourly L Aeqh, looks promising to optimize the spatial sampling of noise monitoring toward a description of the noise pollution due to complex urban road networks more efficient than that based on the legislative road classification.

Shoe-Insole Technology for Injury Prevention in Walking

PubMed Central

Nagano, Hanatsu

2018-01-01

Impaired walking increases injury risk during locomotion, including falls-related acute injuries and overuse damage to lower limb joints. Gait impairments seriously restrict voluntary, habitual engagement in injury prevention activities, such as recreational walking and exercise. There is, therefore, an urgent need for technology-based interventions for gait disorders that are cost effective, willingly taken-up, and provide immediate positive effects on walking. Gait control using shoe-insoles has potential as an effective population-based intervention, and new sensor technologies will enhance the effectiveness of these devices. Shoe-insole modifications include: (i) ankle joint support for falls prevention; (ii) shock absorption by utilising lower-resilience materials at the heel; (iii) improving reaction speed by stimulating cutaneous receptors; and (iv) preserving dynamic balance via foot centre of pressure control. Using sensor technology, such as in-shoe pressure measurement and motion capture systems, gait can be precisely monitored, allowing us to visualise how shoe-insoles change walking patterns. In addition, in-shoe systems, such as pressure monitoring and inertial sensors, can be incorporated into the insole to monitor gait in real-time. Inertial sensors coupled with in-shoe foot pressure sensors and global positioning systems (GPS) could be used to monitor spatiotemporal parameters in real-time. Real-time, online data management will enable ‘big-data’ applications to everyday gait control characteristics. PMID:29738486

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Preface of the "Symposium on Mathematical Models and Methods to investigate Heterogeneity in Cell and Cell Population Biology"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clairambault, Jean

2016-06-01

This session investigates hot topics related to mathematical representations of cell and cell population dynamics in biology and medicine, in particular, but not only, with applications to cancer. Methods in mathematical modelling and analysis, and in statistical inference using single-cell and cell population data, should contribute to focus this session on heterogeneity in cell populations. Among other methods are proposed: a) Intracellular protein dynamics and gene regulatory networks using ordinary/partial/delay differential equations (ODEs, PDEs, DDEs); b) Representation of cell population dynamics using agent-based models (ABMs) and/or PDEs; c) Hybrid models and multiscale models to integrate single-cell dynamics into cell population behaviour; d) Structured cell population dynamics and asymptotic evolution w.r.t. relevant traits; e) Heterogeneity in cancer cell populations: origin, evolution, phylogeny and methods of reconstruction; f) Drug resistance as an evolutionary phenotype: predicting and overcoming it in therapeutics; g) Theoretical therapeutic optimisation of combined drug treatments in cancer cell populations and in populations of other organisms, such as bacteria.

Analysis of U. S. Forest Service bird point-count monitoring database - implications for designing and implementing avian monitoring

Treesearch

Eric T. Linder; David A. Buehler

2005-01-01

In 1996, Region 8 of the U. S. Forest Service implemented a program to monitor landbirds on southeastern U.S. national forests. The goal was to develop a monitoring system that could document population trends and bird-habitat relationships. Using power analysis, we examined the ability of the monitoring program to detect population trends (3 percent annual change) at...

A Dynamic Approach to Monitoring Particle Fallout in a Cleanroom Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, Radford L., III

2010-01-01

This slide presentation discusses a mathematical model to monitor particle fallout in a cleanroom. "Cleanliness levels" do not lead to increases with regards to cleanroom type or time because the levels are not linear. Activity level, impacts the cleanroom class. The numerical method presented leads to a simple Class-hour formulation, that allows for dynamic monitoring of the particle using a standard air particle counter.

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

[RADIATION HYGIENIC MONITORING AT THE AREA OF THE LOCATION OF THE FAR EASTERN CENTER FOR RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT (FEC "DALRAO"--BRANCH OF FSUE "ROSRAO")].

PubMed

Kiselev, S M; Shandala, N K; Akhromeev, S V; Gimadova, T I; Seregin, V A; Titov, A V; Biryukova, N G

2015-01-01

Intensification ofactivities in the field of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and radioactive waste (RW) management in the Far East region of Russia assumes an increase of the environmental load on the territories adjacent to the enterprise and settlements. To ensure radiation safety during works on SNF and radioactive waste management in the standard mode of operation and during the rehabilitation works in the contaminated territories, there is need for the optimization of the existing system of radiation-hygienic monitoring, aimed at the implementation of complex dynamic observation of parameters of radiation-hygienic situation and radiation amount of the population living in the vicinity of the Far Eastern Center for Radioactive Waste Management (FEC "DALRAO"). To solve this problem there is required a significant amount of total and enough structured information on the character of the formation of the radiation situation, the potential ways of the spread of man-made pollution to the surrounding area, determining the radiation load on the population living in the vicinity of the object. In this paper there are presented the results of field studies of the radiation situation at the plant FEC "DALRAO", which were obtained during the course of expedition trips in 2009-2012.

Nonlethal predator effects on the turn-over of wild bird flocks

PubMed Central

Voelkl, Bernhard; Firth, Josh A.; Sheldon, Ben C.

2016-01-01

Nonlethal predator effects arise when individuals of a prey species adjust their behaviour due to the presence of predators. Non-lethal predator effects have been shown to affect social group structure and social behaviour as well as individual fitness of the prey. In this experimental study, we used model sparrowhawks to launch attacks on flocks of wild great tits and blue tits whilst monitoring their social dynamics. We show that nonlethal attacks caused instantaneous turn-over and mixing of group composition within foraging flocks. A single experimental ‘attack’ lasting on average less than three seconds, caused the amount of turn-over expected over three hours (2.0–3.8 hours) of undisturbed foraging. This suggests that nonlethal predator effects can greatly alter group composition within populations, with potential implications for social behaviour by increasing the number of potential interaction partners, as well as longer-term consequences for pair formation and emergent effects determined by social structure such as information and disease transmission. We provide the first evidence, to our knowledge, based on in depth monitoring of a social network to comprehensively support the hypothesis that predators influence the social structure of groups, which offers new perspectives on the key drivers of social behaviour in wild populations. PMID:27633495

Study on dynamic response measurement of the submarine pipeline by full-term FBG sensors.

PubMed

Zhou, Jinghai; Sun, Li; Li, Hongnan

2014-01-01

The field of structural health monitoring is concerned with accurately and reliably assessing the integrity of a given structure to reduce ownership costs, increase operational lifetime, and improve safety. In structural health monitoring systems, fiber Bragg grating (FBG) is a promising measurement technology for its superior ability of explosion proof, immunity to electromagnetic interference, and high accuracy. This paper is a study on the dynamic characteristics of fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors applied to a submarine pipeline, as well as an experimental investigation on a laboratory model of the pipeline. The dynamic response of a submarine pipeline under seismic excitation is a coupled vibration of liquid and solid interaction. FBG sensors and strain gauges are used to monitor the dynamic response of a submarine pipeline model under a variety of dynamic loading conditions and the maximum working frequency of an FBG strain sensor is calculated according to its dynamic strain responses. Based on the theoretical and experimental results, it can be concluded that FBG sensor is superior to strain gauge and satisfies the demand of dynamic strain measurement.

Study on Dynamic Response Measurement of the Submarine Pipeline by Full-Term FBG Sensors

PubMed Central

Zhou, Jinghai; Sun, Li; Li, Hongnan

2014-01-01

The field of structural health monitoring is concerned with accurately and reliably assessing the integrity of a given structure to reduce ownership costs, increase operational lifetime, and improve safety. In structural health monitoring systems, fiber Bragg grating (FBG) is a promising measurement technology for its superior ability of explosion proof, immunity to electromagnetic interference, and high accuracy. This paper is a study on the dynamic characteristics of fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors applied to a submarine pipeline, as well as an experimental investigation on a laboratory model of the pipeline. The dynamic response of a submarine pipeline under seismic excitation is a coupled vibration of liquid and solid interaction. FBG sensors and strain gauges are used to monitor the dynamic response of a submarine pipeline model under a variety of dynamic loading conditions and the maximum working frequency of an FBG strain sensor is calculated according to its dynamic strain responses. Based on the theoretical and experimental results, it can be concluded that FBG sensor is superior to strain gauge and satisfies the demand of dynamic strain measurement. PMID:24971391

Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

PubMed

Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

2018-01-01

Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

[Dynamic metabolic monitoring as a basis of nutritional support in acute cerebral insufficiency of vascular genesis].

PubMed

Leĭderman, I N; Gadzhieva, N Sh; Gromov, V S

2008-01-01

Within the framework of a prospective controlled study, the metabolic status was evaluated in 148 patients with stroke, by using the dynamic metabolic monitoring technique comprising the calculation of real daily calorie consumption, the assessment of the degree of hypermetabolism, protein hypercatabolism, nutritional disorders, and needs for nutrients, and the daily evaluation of nutritional support. As a result, the authors provide evidence that dynamic metabolic monitoring rapidly and adequately reflect changes in the degree of hypercatabolism and hypermetabolism in patients with lesions of the central nervous system and the structures responsible for regulation of metabolism and nutritional support in accordance with monitoring data makes it possible to enhance the efficiency of intensive care and to reduce the frequency of neurotrophic complications.

Dynamic Structural Health Monitoring of slender structures using optical sensors.

PubMed

Antunes, Paulo; Travanca, Rui; Rodrigues, Hugo; Melo, José; Jara, José; Varum, Humberto; André, Paulo

2012-01-01

In this paper we summarize the research activities at the Instituto de Telecomunicações--Pólo de Aveiro and University of Aveiro, in the field of fiber Bragg grating based sensors and their applications in dynamic measurements for Structural Health Monitoring of slender structures such as towers. In this work we describe the implementation of an optical biaxial accelerometer based on fiber Bragg gratings inscribed on optical fibers. The proof-of-concept was done with the dynamic monitoring of a reinforced concrete structure and a slender metallic telecommunication tower. Those structures were found to be suitable to demonstrate the feasibility of FBG accelerometers to obtain the structures' natural frequencies, which are the key parameters in Structural Health Monitoring and in the calibration of numerical models used to simulate the structure behavior.

Application research on land use remote sensing dynamic monitoring: A case study of Anning district, Lanzhou

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yunqiang; Zhu, Huazhong; Lu, Heli; Ni, Jianguang; Zhu, Shaoxia

2005-10-01

Remote sensing dynamic monitoring of land use can detect the change information of land use and update the current land use map, which is important for rational utilization and scientific management of land resources. This paper discusses the technological procedure of remote sensing dynamic monitoring of land use including the process of remote sensing images, the extraction of annual change information of land use, field survey, indoor post processing and accuracy assessment. Especially, we emphasize on comparative research on the choice of remote sensing rectifying models, image fusion algorithms and accuracy assessment methods. Taking Anning district in Lanzhou as an example, we extract the land use change information of the district during 2002-2003, access monitoring accuracy and analyze the reason of land use change.

Large wood budget and transport dynamics on a large river using radio telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schenk, Edward R.; Moulin, Bertrand; Hupp, Cliff R.; Richte, Jean M.

2014-01-01

Despite the abundance of large wood (LW) river studies there is still a lack of understanding of LW transport dynamics on large low gradient rivers. This study used 290 radio frequency identification tagged (RFID) LW and 54 metal (aluminum) tagged LW, to quantify the percent of in-channel LW that moves per year and what variables play a role in LW transport dynamics. Aluminum tags were installed and monitored on LW in-transit during the rising limb of a flood, the mean distance traveled by those pieces during the week was 13.3 river kilometers (km) with a maximum distance of 72 km. RFID tagged LW moved a mean of 11.9 km/yr with a maximum observed at 101.1 km/yr. Approximately 41% of LW low on the bank moves per year. The high rate of transport and distance traveled is likely due to the lack of interaction between LW floating in the channel and the channel boundaries, caused primarily by the width of the channel relative to length of the LW. Approximately 80% of the RFID tags moved past a fixed reader during the highest 20% of river stage per year. LW transport and logjam dynamics are complicated at high flows as pieces form temporary jams that continually expand and contract. Unlike most other studies, key members that create a logjam were defined more by stability than jam size or channel/hydrologic conditions. Finally, using an existing geomorphic database for the river, and data from this study, we were able to develop a comprehensive LW budget showing that 5% of the in-channel LW population turns over each year (input from mass wasting and fluvial erosion equals burial, decomposition, and export out of system) and another 16% of the population moving within the system.