Testing a Flexible Method to Reduce False Monsoon Onsets

PubMed Central

Stiller-Reeve, Mathew Alexander; Spengler, Thomas; Chu, Pao-Shin

2014-01-01

To generate information about the monsoon onset and withdrawal we have to choose a monsoon definition and apply it to data. One problem that arises is that false monsoon onsets can hamper our analysis, which is often alleviated by smoothing the data in time or space. Another problem is that local communities or stakeholder groups may define the monsoon differently. We therefore aim to develop a technique that reduces false onsets for high-resolution gridded data, while also being flexible for different requirements that can be tailored to particular end-users. In this study, we explain how we developed our technique and demonstrate how it successfully reduces false onsets and withdrawals. The presented results yield improved information about the monsoon length and its interannual variability. Due to this improvement, we are able to extract information from higher resolution data sets. This implies that we can potentially get a more detailed picture of local climate variations that can be used in more local climate application projects such as community-based adaptations. PMID:25105900

Sub-seasonal precipitation during the South Asian summer monsoon onset period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaya, Y.; Yamaguchi, M.

2017-12-01

The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) has a great impact on human activities (e.g., agriculture and health), thus skillful prediction of the SASM is highly anticipated. In particular, precipitation amount and timing of a rainy season onset are of great importance for crop planning. This study examines the performance of precipitation prediction during the onset period of the SASM using the WWRP/WCRP sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) dataset. Preliminary verification of ECMWF model reforecasts against the GSMaP precipitation analysis produced by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) shows that a predictive skill of precipitation is reasonably high in a sub-seasonal time-range. It is also found that the predictive skill of precipitation in the South Asia is relatively higher around the onset period, consistent with our previous finding using the latest JMA seasonal prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS2). The results suggest that state-of-the-art operational models have the capability to provide useful SASM onset predictions at a sub-seasonal time scale. In the presentation, we will also discuss the inherent potential predictability, feasibility of prediction of the monsoon onset and relevant processes.

Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2017-05-01

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced onset. The Asian monsoon intensity becomes stronger with the passage of time. This study has important implication for assessment of CMIP5 models in terms of the prediction of time evolution and intensity of Asian monsoon based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation.

Community level perceptions of the monsoon onset, withdrawal and climatic trends in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeve, M. A.; Abu Syed, M. D.; Hossain, P. R.; Maainuddi, G.; Mamnun, N.

2012-04-01

A structured questionnaire study was carried out in 6 different regions in Bangladesh in order to give insight into how the different communities define the monsoon. The respondents were asked how they define the monsoon onset and withdrawal, and by how much these can vary from year to year. They were also asked about how they perceive changes in onset and withdrawal dates and total monsoonal rainfall during the past 20 years. Bangladesh is a developing country with a large proportion of the population living in rural areas and employed in the agricultural sector. It is foreseen that these communities will be most affected by changes in the climate. These groups were considered to be the main stakeholders when considering climate change, due to the direct influence the monsoon has on their livelihood and the food supply for the entire nation. Agricultural workers were therefore the main group targeted in this study. The main aim of the study was to create a framework for defining the monsoon in order to increase the usability of results in future impact-related studies. Refining definitions according to the perceptions of the main stakeholders helps to achieve this goal. Results show that rainfall is the main parameter used in defining the monsoon onset and withdrawal. This is possibly intuitive, however the monsoon onset was considered to be considerably earlier than previous scientific studies. This could be due to pre-monsoonal rainfall, however the respondents defined this type of rainfall separately to what they called the monsoon. The monsoon is considered to start earliest in the Sylhet region in northeast Bangladesh.

Seasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoni, S.; Walker, J. M.

2017-12-01

Here, we analyze seasonal changes in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) in atmospheric reanalysis data using a threshold-independent index of monsoon onset we have recently introduced (Walker and Bordoni 2016). We seek to evaluate the extent to which emerging theoretical frameworks are consistent with the observed monsoon. Climatological composites reveal that at monsoon onset, an abrupt strengthening and northward migration of the maximum in sub-cloud equivalent potential temperature accompany the rapid northward movement of the monsoon rainbelt. These changes are driven by changes in near-surface specific humidity, rather than changes in near-surface temperature, whose gradient actually decreases at monsoon onset. These findings are inconsistent with the traditional paradigm of the monsoon as a sea breeze circulation and confirm the convectively coupled view of the SASM circulation as an energetically-direct overturning circulation as more fundamental for the understanding of monsoon dynamics. Providing further support to this emerging view, we show that the SASM sector mean circulation at monsoon onset undergoes a rapid transition from an equinox circulation with a pair of tropical overturning cells, to a solstice circulation dominated by a strong cross-equatorial monsoonal cell and negligible overturning cell in the northern hemisphere.This transition corresponds to a transition in the leading order momentum budget, from an eddy-dominated equinox regime to a highly nonlinear monsoon regime which approaches conservation of angular momentum. These transitions are similar to those seen in idealized zonally symmetric studies of aquaplanet monsoons, suggesting that eddy-mean flow feedbacks identified in those studies may be acting in the SASM sector, and may contribute to the abruptness of the SASM onset. Our findings highlight the importance of nonlinear dynamics in the seasonal evolution of the SASM circulation and suggest that some fundamental aspects of the observed monsoon can be understood in the absence of land-sea contrast or other zonal asymmetries.

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W. K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.; Shie, C. -L.; Lau, W. K. -M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David O' C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon onset through variations of surface air temperature and relative humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has an enormous effect on Indian agriculture, economy, and, as a consequence, life and prosperity of more than one billion people. Variability of the monsoonal rainfall and its onset have a huge influence on food production, agricultural planning and GDP of the country, which on 22% is determined by agriculture. Consequently, successful forecasting of the ISM onset is a big challenge and large efforts are being put into it. Here, we propose a novel approach for predictability of the ISM onset, based on critical transition theory. The ISM onset is defined as an abrupt transition from sporadious rainfall to spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall. Taking this into account, we consider the ISM onset as is a critical transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon, which take place in time and also in space. It allows us to suggest that before the onset of ISM on the Indian subcontinent should be areas of critical behavior where indicators of the critical transitions can be detected through an analysis of observational data. First, we identify areas with such critical behavior. Second, we use detected areas as reference points for observation locations for the ISM onset prediction. Third, we derive a precursor for the ISM onset based on the analysis of surface air temperature and relative humidity variations in these reference points. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of this precursor on two observational data sets. The proposed approach allows to determine ISM onset in advance in 67% of all considered years. Our proposed approach is less effective during the anomalous years, which are associated with weak/strong monsoons, e.g. El-Nino, La-Nina or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. The ISM onset is predicted for 23 out of 27 normal monsoon years (85%) during the past 6 decades. In the anomalous years, we show that time series analysis in both areas during the pre-monsoon period reveals indicators whether the forthcoming ISM will be normal or weaker/stronger.

Impacts of aerosol-monsoon interaction on rainfall and circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

2017-09-01

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all-India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using the NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: (1) control with no aerosol, (2) aerosol radiative effect only and (3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol-monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large-scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. in Clim Dyn 26(7-8):855-864, 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India/northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into meso-scale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be substantial and cannot be ignored.

The Effect of the Divergent Circulation on Some Aspects of the 1978/79 Southern Hemisphere Monsoon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang; Yen, Ming-Cheng; van Loon, Harry

1989-11-01

Two aspects of the 1978/79 Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoon are examined: (i) A double-low (double-high) structure in the lower (upper) levels of the troposphere, which appears over the region adjacent to Australia; and (ii) the poleward shift in the Australian jet after the monsoon onset. Emphasis is given to the effect of the divergent circulation on these two aspects of the SH monsoon. The data generated by the FGGE IIIb analyses at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are used in this study.The three-dimensional structure of the SH monsoon circulation after the monsoon onset matches well with Gill's solution based upon a heat source symmetric with respect to the equator. His solution contains the coupling of an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and a westward-propagating mixed gravity-Rossby wave over the heat source region. Water vapor and heat budget analyses for the SH monsoon were performed to show how this heat source is maintained by the monsoon circulation. The contrast between the theories of Gill and Silva Dias et al. is discussed in order to explain the presence of the SH monsoon over the region adjacent to Australia. The poleward shift of the Australian subtropical jet stream following the SH monsoon onset is illustrated by an analysis of the energetics of the divergent and rotational flows; namely, the interaction between these two flow components and the possible adjustment of the ageostrophic circulation caused by the thermal field change after the SH monsoon onset.

Monsoon Convective During the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment: Observations from Ground-Based Radar and the TRMM Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cifelli, Rob; Rickenbach, Tom; Halverson, Jeff; Keenan, Tom; Kucera, Paul; Atkinson, Lester; Fisher, Brad; Gerlach, John; Harris, Kathy; Kaufman, Cristina

1999-01-01

A main goal of the recent South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was to study convective processes associated with the onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon. The NASA TOGA C-band scanning radar was deployed on the Chinese research vessel Shi Yan #3 for two 20 day cruises, collecting dual-Doppler measurements in conjunction with the BMRC C-Pol dual-polarimetric radar on Dongsha Island. Soundings and surface meteorological data were also collected with an NCAR Integrated Sounding System (ISS). This experiment was the first major tropical field campaign following the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. These observations of tropical oceanic convection provided an opportunity to make comparisons between surface radar measurements and the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite in an oceanic environment. Nearly continuous radar operations were conducted during two Intensive Observing Periods (IOPS) straddling the onset of the monsoon (5-25 May 1998 and 5-25 June 1998). Mesoscale lines of convection with widespread regions of both trailing and forward stratiform precipitation were observed following the onset of the active monsoon in the northern South China Sea region. The vertical structure of the convection during periods of strong westerly flow and relatively moist environmental conditions in the lower to mid-troposphere contrasted sharply with convection observed during periods of low level easterlies, weak shear, and relatively dry conditions in the mid to upper troposphere. Several examples of mesoscale convection will be shown from the ground (ship)-based and spaceborne radar data during times of TRMM satellite overpasses. Examples of pre-monsoon convection, characterized by isolated cumulonimbus and shallow, precipitating congestus clouds, will also be discussed.

New Tools for Comparing Beliefs about the Timing of Recurrent Events with Climate Time Series Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stiller-Reeve, Mathew; Stephenson, David; Spengler, Thomas

2017-04-01

For climate services to be relevant and informative for users, scientific data definitions need to match users' perceptions or beliefs. This study proposes and tests novel yet simple methods to compare beliefs of timing of recurrent climatic events with empirical evidence from multiple historical time series. The methods are tested by applying them to the onset date of the monsoon in Bangladesh, where several scientific monsoon definitions can be applied, yielding different results for monsoon onset dates. It is a challenge to know which monsoon definition compares best with people's beliefs. Time series from eight different scientific monsoon definitions in six regions are compared with respondent beliefs from a previously completed survey concerning the monsoon onset. Beliefs about the timing of the monsoon onset are represented probabilistically for each respondent by constructing a probability mass function (PMF) from elicited responses about the earliest, normal, and latest dates for the event. A three-parameter circular modified triangular distribution (CMTD) is used to allow for the possibility (albeit small) of the onset at any time of the year. These distributions are then compared to the historical time series using two approaches: likelihood scores, and the mean and standard deviation of time series of dates simulated from each belief distribution. The methods proposed give the basis for further iterative discussion with decision-makers in the development of eventual climate services. This study uses Jessore, Bangladesh, as an example and finds that a rainfall definition, applying a 10 mm day-1 threshold to NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (Reanalysis-1) data, best matches the survey respondents' beliefs about monsoon onset.

Interdecadal variability of El Niño onset and its impact on monsoon systems over areas encircling the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jiaxi; Xu, Jianjun; Guan, Zhaoyong; Powell, Alfred M.

2016-10-01

Based on previous study by Xu and Chan (J Clim 14:418-433, 2001), two types of El Niño distinguished by the onset time, a Spring (SP) type and a Summer (SU) type, have been investigated from 1871 through 2011. As can be classified by the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomaly into the Warm Pool (WP) and Cold Tongue (CT) El Niño, the temporal features of the CT are dominated by the SP events whereas the SU events mostly display the spatial pattern of WP or Mixed events. The approximate 140-year data analysis shows that the frequency of SP events tends to increase in the most recent 30 years (1980-2009) while the SU events show very strong activity in the beginning of the twentieth century (1900-1929), which are closely associated with the decadal changes in oceanic and atmospheric background conditions. The air-sea processes indicate that the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between tropical and extratropical Pacific Ocean on decadal time scales is related to the sea level pressure distribution, which tends to produce wind anomalies. The wind anomalies in turn affect the SST anomalies on inter-annual time scales over the equatorial areas and finally result in the early onset of El Niño in SP time or late onset of El Nino in SU time. A spring onset El Niño favors a Kelvin wave that propagates across the basin and a summer onset favors a Kelvin wave that does not traverse the basin or the related effects are not strong enough. The early or late onset of El Niño significantly impacts the precipitation distribution correlated with the monsoon systems including the Asian-Australian monsoon and North-South American monsoon. The El Niño-monsoon relationship is modulated by decadal changes in atmospheric and oceanic background conditions. The precipitation in the monsoonal area circling the Pacific Ocean exhibits characteristic quasi-biennial variations that are closely associated with the onset time of El Niño events, especially with the early onset of El Niño. For the Spring (SP) type, drought is observed over the central China, Australia, southwestern North America and northern South America in boreal summer, but the opposite pattern appears in the subsequent summer of the following year.

Detecting the influence of ocean process on the moisture supply for India summer monsoon from Satellite Sea Surface Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, W.; Yueh, S. H.; Liu, W. T.; Fore, A.; Hayashi, A.

2016-02-01

A strong contrast in the onset of Indian summer monsoon was observed by independent satellites: average rain rate over India subcontinent (IS) in June was more than doubled in 2013 than 2012 (TRMM); also observed are larger area of wet soil (Aquarius) and high water storage (GRACE). The difference in IS rainfall was contributed to the moisture inputs through west coast of India, estimated from ocean wind (OSCAT2) and water vapor (TMI). This is an interesting testbed for studying the role of ocean on terrestrial water cycle, in particular the Indian monsoon, which has tremendous social-economical impact. What is the source of extra moisture in 2013 or deficit in 2012 for the monsoon onset? Is it possible to quantify the contribution of ocean process that maybe responsible for redistributing the freshwater in favor of the summer monsoon moisture supply? This study aims to identify the influence of ocean processes on the freshwater exchange between air-sea interfaces, using Aquarius sea surface salinity (SSS). We found two areas in Indian Ocean with high correlation between IS rain rate and Aquarius SSS: one area is in the Arabian Sea adjacent to IS, another area is a horizontal patch from 60°E to 100°E centered around 10°S. On the other hand, E-P (OAflux, TRMM) shows no similar correlation patterns with IS rain. Based on the governing equation of the salt budget in the upper ocean, we define the freshwater flux, F, from the oceanic branch of the water cycle, including contributions from salinity tendency, advection, and subsurface process. The tendency and advection terms are estimated using Aquarius SSS and OSCAR ocean current. We will present results of analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of F and evidence of and hypothesis on how the oceanic processes may enhance the moisture supply for summer Indian monsoon onset in 2013 comparing with 2012. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) has been producing the global soil moisture (SM) every 2-3 days. The SMAP radiometer has also been used to produce SSS at 50 km resolution. Preliminary coincident analysis on SMAP SM and SSS data for the Indian monsoon will also be presented. This study demonstrates the importance and benefits of integrated analysis of continuous spacebased observations towards the characterization, understanding, and prediction of the global water cycle.

Adaptation for Planting and Irrigation Decisions to Changing Monsoon Regime in Northeast India: Risk-based Hydro-economic Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Cai, X.

2013-12-01

Delay in onset of Indian summer monsoon becomes increasingly frequent. Delayed monsoon and occasional monsoon failures seriously affect agricultural production in the northeast as well as other parts of India. In the Vaishali district of the Bihar State, Monsoon rainfall is very skewed and erratic, often concentrating in shorter durations. Farmers in Vaishali reported that delayed Monsoon affected paddy planting and, consequently delayed cropping cycle, putting crops under the risks of 'terminal heat.' Canal system in the district does not function due to lack of maintenance; irrigation relies almost entirely on groundwater. Many small farmers choose not to irrigate when monsoon onset is delayed due to high diesel price, leading to reduced production or even crop failure. Some farmers adapt to delayed onset of Monsoon by planting short-duration rice, which gives the flexibility for planting the next season crops. Other sporadic autonomous adaptation activities were observed as well, with various levels of success. Adaptation recommendations and effective policy interventions are much needed. To explore robust options to adapt to the changing Monsoon regime, we build a stochastic programming model to optimize revenues of farmer groups categorized by landholding size, subject to stochastic Monsoon onset and rainfall amount. Imperfect probabilistic long-range forecast is used to inform the model onset and rainfall amount probabilities; the 'skill' of the forecasting is measured using probabilities of correctly predicting events in the past derived through hindcasting. Crop production functions are determined using self-calibrating Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The stochastic programming model aims to emulate decision-making behaviors of representative farmer agents through making choices in adaptation, including crop mix, planting dates, irrigation, and use of weather information. A set of technological and policy intervention scenarios are tested, including irrigation subsidies, drought and heat-tolerant crop varieties, and enhancing agricultural extension. A portfolio of prioritized adaption options are recommended for the study area.

Onset, advance and withdrawal of southwest monsoon over Indian subcontinent: A study from precipitable water measurement using ground based GPS receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puviarasan, N.; Sharma, A. K.; Ranalkar, Manish; Giri, R. K.

2015-01-01

Southwest monsoon (SWM) normally sets over Kerala by 1st June. It subsequently advances northwards and covers the entire country by 15th July. Prior knowledge of determination of date of onset of monsoon (DOM) is vital for many applications. However, accurate determination of DOM avoiding false or 'bogus' onset still remains a challenge to meteorological community. An incorrect identification of onset may lead to declaration of early onset. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has traditionally adopted an objective method to declare onset and withdrawal of monsoon based on rainfall over some specific stations in addition to wind field and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) from a bounded region. An augmentation of existing criteria of monsoon onset using high temporal resolution tropospheric precipitable water (PW) content over a station obtained through ground based GPS receiver is proposed. It has been shown that variation of PW content is an indicator of the state of monsoon and can potentially be included in operational criteria for declaring onset and withdrawal of monsoon. In the paper, we present daily variation of PW during SWM at five stations viz. Chennai, Kolkata, Guwahati, Mumbai and Delhi. The superposed epoch analysis of PW variation for 13 days with respect to arrival and withdrawal date of SWM reveals that over Kolkata at the time of arrival of monsoon the PW (mm)/SD (Standard Deviation) increases from 48.62/2.5 (day -6) to 61.4/1.9 (day 0) and on withdrawal it decreases from 48.62/4.56 (day -6) to 22.55 mm/4.0 (day 0). Similarly in Guwahati, Mumbai and Delhi the value of PW/SD increase from 53.81/4.2, 43.10/7.2 and 44.6/5.0 mm to 62.74/1.5, 62.09/1.6 and 61.88/2.3 mm and on withdrawal it reduces to 27.12/4.2, 25.94/2.6 and 20.46/4.6 mm respectively. It is also noticed that there is a sharp variation of PW from day -2 to day 0, which indicates GPS PW can be considered as a precursor for monsoon arrival and withdrawal.

Influence of Continental Geometry on the Onset and Spatial Distribution of Monsoonal Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, K. L.; Bordoni, S.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have shown that the rapid onset of the monsoon is due to a switch between a dynamical regime where the tropical circulation strength is controlled by eddy momentum fluxes, to a monsoon regime where the strength is more directly controlled by energetic constraints, which causes the monsoonal cross-equatorial cell to grow rapidly in strength and extent. While it is now widely accepted that land-sea contrast is not necessary to generate monsoons, the spatial distribution of land can still affect important features of monsoons. This study focuses on the influence of continental geometry on the monsoonal precipitation. We use an idealized aquaplanet model with a slab ocean, where land and ocean differ only by the mixed-layer depth of the slab ocean, which is two orders of magnitude smaller over land than over ocean. The model is run with different zonally symmetric configurations of Northern Hemispheric land that extends poleward from southern boundaries at various latitudes. Simulations with a continent extending to tropical latitudes are able to reproduce the monsoonal precipitation distribution and rapid onset well. For continents with more poleward southern boundaries and weaker hemispheric asymmetry, the main precipitation zone remains over the ocean, moving gradually into the summer hemisphere. A local maximum in precipitation forms over the continent even when the continent does not extend into the deeper tropics, but this is primarily associated with local recycling from the saturated surface rather than moisture flux convergence by a deep and broad monsoonal circulation. Further analysis shows that a decrease in hemispheric asymmetry prevents the establishment of a reversed meridional gradient in lower-level moist static energy and, with it, a poleward displaced convergence zone. This suggests that in order to have the rapid onset of monsoonal precipitation, tropical regions of low thermal inertia may be necessary to facilitate the transition of the tropical circulation to a dynamical regime that restricts the degree to which eddy momentum fluxes influence the circulation strength and allows the cell the grow rapidly in strength and poleward extent. These results provide some useful insights for developing theories to better understand the mechanisms of rapid onset of monsoon systems worldwide.

The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, Katharine; Grimm, Rosina; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Marino, Gianluca; Rohling, Eelco

2016-04-01

The periodic deposition of organic rich layers or 'sapropels' in eastern Mediterranean sediments can be linked to orbital-driven changes in the strength and location of (east) African monsoon precipitation. Sapropels are therefore an extremely useful tool for establishing orbital chronologies, and for providing insights about African monsoon variability on long timescales. However, the link between sapropel formation, insolation variations, and African monsoon 'maxima' is not straightforward because other processes (notably, sea-level rise) may have contributed to their deposition, and because there are uncertainties about monsoon-sapropel phase relationships. For example, different phasings are observed between Holocene and early Pleistocene sapropels, and between proxy records and model simulations. To address these issues, we have established geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1, S3, S4, and S5 in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows us to examine in detail the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. Our records suggest that the onset of sapropel deposition and monsoon run-off was near synchronous, yet insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings varied, whereby monsoon/sapropel onset was relatively delayed (with respect to insolation maxima) after glacial terminations. We suggest that large meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. Hence, the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. We also surmise that both monsoon run-off and sea-level rise were important buoyancy-forcing mechanisms for the studied sapropels, and their relative influences differed per sapropel case. For instance, sea-level rise was clearly important for sapropel S1, whereas monsoon forcing was likely more important for sapropel S5.

Contrasting influences of aerosols on cloud properties during deficient and abundant monsoon years

PubMed Central

Patil, Nitin; Dave, Prashant; Venkataraman, Chandra

2017-01-01

Direct aerosol radiative forcing facilitates the onset of Indian monsoon rainfall, based on synoptic scale fast responses acting over timescales of days to a month. Here, we examine relationships between aerosols and coincident clouds over the Indian subcontinent, using observational data from 2000 to 2009, from the core monsoon region. Season mean and daily timescales were considered. The correlation analyses of cloud properties with aerosol optical depth revealed that deficient monsoon years were characterized by more frequent and larger decreases in cloud drop size and ice water path, but increases in cloud top pressure, with increases in aerosol abundance. The opposite was observed during abundant monsoon years. The correlations of greater aerosol abundance, with smaller cloud drop size, lower evidence of ice processes and shallower cloud height, during deficient rainfall years, imply cloud inhibition; while those with larger cloud drop size, greater ice processes and a greater cloud vertical extent, during abundant rainfall years, suggest cloud invigoration. The study establishes that continental aerosols over India alter cloud properties in diametrically opposite ways during contrasting monsoon years. The mechanisms underlying these effects need further analysis. PMID:28337991

Contrasting influences of aerosols on cloud properties during deficient and abundant monsoon years.

PubMed

Patil, Nitin; Dave, Prashant; Venkataraman, Chandra

2017-03-24

Direct aerosol radiative forcing facilitates the onset of Indian monsoon rainfall, based on synoptic scale fast responses acting over timescales of days to a month. Here, we examine relationships between aerosols and coincident clouds over the Indian subcontinent, using observational data from 2000 to 2009, from the core monsoon region. Season mean and daily timescales were considered. The correlation analyses of cloud properties with aerosol optical depth revealed that deficient monsoon years were characterized by more frequent and larger decreases in cloud drop size and ice water path, but increases in cloud top pressure, with increases in aerosol abundance. The opposite was observed during abundant monsoon years. The correlations of greater aerosol abundance, with smaller cloud drop size, lower evidence of ice processes and shallower cloud height, during deficient rainfall years, imply cloud inhibition; while those with larger cloud drop size, greater ice processes and a greater cloud vertical extent, during abundant rainfall years, suggest cloud invigoration. The study establishes that continental aerosols over India alter cloud properties in diametrically opposite ways during contrasting monsoon years. The mechanisms underlying these effects need further analysis.

Monsoon Convection during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment Observed from Shipboard Radar and the TRMM Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rickenbach, Tom; Cifelli, Rob; Halverson, Jeff; Kucera, Paul; Atkinson, Lester; Fisher, Brad; Gerlach, John; Harris, Kathy; Kaufman, Cristina; Liu, Ching-Hwang;

Seasonal evolution of the West African heat low: a climatological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavaysse, C.; Flamant, C.; Janicot, S.; Parker, D. J.; Lafore, J.-P.; Sultan, B.; Pelon, J.

2009-08-01

The West African heat low (WAHL), a region of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, is a key element of the West African monsoon system. In this study, we propose a method to detect the WAHL in order to monitor its climatological seasonal displacement over West Africa during the period 1979-2001, using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalyses. The low-level atmospheric thickness (LLAT), a variable defined as the difference of geopotential heights at 700 and 925 hPa, is used to detect the dilatation of these levels generated by an increase of the temperature. We define grid points with 10% highest values of the LLAT as the WAHL. We show that our method reliably positions the WAHL over areas of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, and that it is effective at detecting heat lows. In the course of the year, the climatological WAHL is shown to migrate north-westward from a position south of the Darfur mountains in the winter (November-March) to a location over the Sahara, between the Hoggar and the Atlas mountains, during the summer (June-September). The temperature tendency equation is used to investigate the processes controlling the displacement of the WAHL, and more particularly the heating at low levels. The specific period of the onset of the WAHL in its summer location over the Sahara (referred to as the Saharan heat low -SHL- onset) is also analysed during the 1984-2001 period, using complementary brightness temperature data from the European Union-funded Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS). The climatological onset of the SHL occurs around 20 June, i.e. just before the climatological monsoon onset date. The present study suggests that the onset of the WAHL occurs approximately 5 days before the monsoon onset for the 1984-2001 period. This is confirmed independently by comparing the SHL onset date and the monsoon onset date for the 1984-2001 period. The seasonal evolution of the WAHL for the year 2006 (the year of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis project Special Observation Period) is analysed and compared with the climatological results. The operational ECMWF analyses were used for that purpose. Except in April, the spatial distribution of the WAHL remains relatively unchanged and agrees with the climatology. The onset of the SHL in 2006 occurs on 18 June, which is close to the climatological date, in spite of the delay in the onset of the rainy season in Sahel.

Early forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: case study 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

2017-04-01

The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw? More lead time in monsoon forecast warning is crucial for taking appropriate decisions at various levels - from the farmer's field (e.g. plowing day, seeding) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies). The Indian Meteorological Department issues forecasts of onset of monsoon for Kerala state in South India on May 15-th. It does not give such predictions for the other 28 states of the country. Our study concerns the central part of India. We made the monsoon forecast using our recently developed method which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon [1]. Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E). We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016 [2], that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region. We forecasted the monsoon withdrawal from the Eastern Ghats on the 5th of October with a deviation of +/-5 days. We delivered this prediction on July 27-th, 2016 [3], namely 70 days in advance. The date of the actual start of monsoon withdrawal was October 10th. In this day relative humidity began to decrease. Then it passed the 80 percent threshold, and a transition back to a monsoon became impossible, meteorological stations registered it also. We emphasize that our forecasts of the monsoon onset and withdrawal were delivered for 40 and 70 days in advance respectively, and both of our forecasts lie within our prediction interval. Hence, this year we proved that such early prediction of the monsoon timing is possible. [1] Stolbova, V., E. Surovyatkina, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths (2016): Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1-9 [doi:10.1002/2016GL068392] [2]https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/indian-monsoon-novel-approach-allows-early-forecasting?set_language=en [3] https://www.pik-potsdam.de/kontakt/pressebuero/fotos/monsoon-withdrawal/view

The Indian Summer Monsoon onset revisited: new approach based on the analysis of historical wind observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordoñez, Paulina; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Vega, Inmaculada; Gómez, Francisco de Paula

2016-04-01

The Indian Summer Monsoon onset is one of the meteorological events most anticipated in the world. Due to its relevance for the population, the India Meteorological Department has dated the onset over the southern tip of the Indian Peninsula (Kerala) since 1901. The traditional method to date the onset was based in the judgment of skilled meteorologist and because of this, the method was considered subjective and not adequate for the study of long-term changes in the onset. A new method for determining the monsoon onset based solely on objective criteria has been in use since 2006. Unfortunately, the new method relies -among other variables- on OLR measurements. This requirement impedes the construction of an objective onset series before the satellite era. An alternative approach to establish the onset by objective methods is the use of the wind field. During the last decade, some works have demonstrated that the changes in the wind direction in some areas of the Indian Ocean can be used to determine the monsoon onset rather precisely. However, this method requires precise wind observations over a large oceanic area which has limited the periods covered for such kind of indices to those of the reanalysis products. In this work we present a new approach to track the Indian monsoon onset based solely on historical wind direction measurements taken onboard ships. Our new series provides an objective record of the onset since the last decade of the 19th century and perhaps more importantly, it can incorporate any new historical wind record not yet known in order to extend the series length. The new series captures quite precisely the rapid precipitation increase associated to the monsoon onset, correlates well with previous approaches and it is robust against anomalous (bogus) onsets. Although no significant trends in the onset date were detected, a tendency to later than average onsets during the 1900-1925 and 1970-1990 periods and earlier than average onsets between 1940 and 1965 have been found. Our results show a relatively stable link between the ENSO cycle and the onset date; however this relationship is weaker in decades characterized by prevalent La Niña conditions. Furthermore, it was found that the link between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the onset date is limited to the phases characterized by a shift from negative to positive PDO phases. This research was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad through the projects CGL2013-44530-P and CGL2014-51721-REDT

The Response of the North American Monsoon to Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, B. I.; Seager, R.

2013-01-01

[1] We analyze the response of the North American Monsoon (NAM) to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing (emissions scenario RCP 8.5) using new simulations available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Changes in total monsoon season rainfall with GHG warming are small and insignificant. The models do, however, show significant declines in early monsoon season precipitation (June-July) and increases in late monsoon season (September-October) precipitation, indicating a shift in seasonality toward delayed onset and withdrawal of the monsoon. Early in the monsoon season, tropospheric warming increases vertical stability, reinforced by reductions in available surface moisture, inhibiting precipitation and delaying the onset of the monsoon. By the end of the monsoon season, moisture convergence is sufficient to overcome the warming induced stability increases, and precipitation is enhanced. Even with no change in total NAM rainfall, shifts in the seasonal distribution of precipitation within the NAM region are still likely to have significant societal and ecological consequences, reinforcing the need to not only understand the magnitude, but also the timing, of future precipitation changes.

Evolution of the Large Scale Circulation, Cloud Structure and Regional Water Cycle Associated with the South China Sea Monsoon During May-June, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.-M.; Li, Xiao-Fan

2001-01-01

In this paper, changes in the large-scale circulation, cloud structures and regional water cycle associated with the evolution of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in May-June 1998 were investigated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and field data from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Results showed that both tropical and extratropical processes strongly influenced the onset and evolution of the SCS monsoon. Prior to the onset of the SCS monsoon, enhanced convective activities associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation were detected over the Indian Ocean, and the SCS was under the influence of the West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA) with prevailing low level easterlies and suppressed convection. Establishment of low-level westerlies across Indo-China, following the development of a Bay of Bengal depression played an important role in building up convective available potential energy over the SCS. The onset of SCS monsoon appeared to be triggered by the equatorward penetration of extratropical frontal system, which was established over the coastal region of southern China and Taiwan in early May. Convective activities over the SCS were found to vary inversely with those over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Analysis of TRMM microwave and precipitation radar data revealed that during the onset phase, convection over the northern SCS consisted of squall-type rain cell embedded in meso-scale complexes similar to extratropical systems. The radar Z-factor intensity indicated that SCS clouds possessed a bimodal distribution, with a pronounced signal (less than 30dBz) at a height of 2-3 km, and another one (less than 25 dBz) at the 8-10 km level, separated by a well-defined melting level indicated by a bright band at around 5-km level. The stratiform-to-convective cloud ratio was approximately 1:1 in the pre-onset phase, but increased to 5:1 in the active phase. Regional water budget calculations indicated that during the active phase, the SCS was a strong sink (E-P much less than 0) of atmospheric moisture, with the primary source of moisture coming from regions further west over Indo-China and the eastern Indian Ocean. Before onset and during the break, the SCS was a moisture source (E-P greater than ) to the overlying atmosphere. In particular, the SCS provided the bulk of moisture to the torrential rain over the YRV in mid-June 1998.

Performance of Regional Climate Model in Simulating Monsoon Onset Over Indian Subcontinent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatla, R.; Mandal, B.; Verma, Shruti; Ghosh, Soumik; Mall, R. K.

2018-06-01

The performance of various Convective Parameterization Schemes (CPSs) of Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) for simulation of onset phase of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over Kerala was studied for the period of 2001-2010. The onset date and its associated spatial variation were simulated using RegCM-4.3 four core CPS, namely Kuo, Tiedtke, Emanuel and Grell; and with two mixed convection schemes Mix98 (Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean) and Mix99 (Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean) on the basis of criteria given by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) (Pai and Rajeevan in Indian summer monsoon onset: variability and prediction. National Climate Centre, India Meteorological Department, 2007). It has been found that out of six CPS, two schemes, namely Tiedtke and Mix99 simulated the onset date properly. The onset phase is characterized with several transition phases of atmosphere. Therefore, to study the thermal response or the effect of different sea surface temperature (SST), namely ERA interim (ERSST) and weekly optimal interpolation (OI_WK SST) on Indian summer monsoon, the role of two different types of SST has been used to investigate the simulated onset date. In addition, spatial atmospheric circulation pattern during onset phase were analyzed using reanalyze dataset of ERA Interim (EIN15) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), respectively, for wind and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) pattern. Among the six convective schemes of RegCM-4.3 model, Tiedtke is in good agreement with actual onset dates and OI_WK SST forcing is better for simulating onset of ISM over Kerala.

Simulation of the West African monsoon onset using the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diallo, Ismaïla; Bain, Caroline L.; Gaye, Amadou T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Niang, Coumba; Dieng, Mame D. B.; Graham, Richard

2014-08-01

The performance of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) in simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated. We focus on performance for monsoon onset timing and for rainfall totals over the June-July-August (JJA) season and on the model's representation of the underlying dynamical processes. Experiments are driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and follow the CORDEX experimental protocol. Simulations with the HadGEM3 global model, which shares a common physical formulation with HadGEM3-RA, are used to gain insight into the causes of HadGEM3-RA simulation errors. It is found that HadGEM3-RA simulations of monsoon onset timing are realistic, with an error in mean onset date of two pentads. However, the model has a dry bias over the Sahel during JJA of 15-20 %. Analysis suggests that this is related to errors in the positioning of the Saharan heat low, which is too far south in HadGEM3-RA and associated with an insufficient northward reach of the south-westerly low-level monsoon flow and weaker moisture convergence over the Sahel. Despite these biases HadGEM3-RA's representation of the general rainfall distribution during the WAM appears superior to that of ERA-Interim when using Global Precipitation Climatology Project or Tropical Rain Measurement Mission data as reference. This suggests that the associated dynamical features seen in HadGEM3-RA can complement the physical picture available from ERA-Interim. This approach is supported by the fact that the global HadGEM3 model generates realistic simulations of the WAM without the benefit of pseudo-observational forcing at the lateral boundaries; suggesting that the physical formulation shared with HadGEM3-RA, is able to represent the driving processes. HadGEM3-RA simulations confirm previous findings that the main rainfall peak near 10°N during June-August is maintained by a region of mid-tropospheric ascent located, latitudinally, between the cores of the African Easterly Jet and Tropical Easterly Jet that intensifies around the time of onset. This region of ascent is weaker and located further south near 5°N in the driving ERA-Interim reanalysis, for reasons that may be related to the coarser resolution or the physics of the underlying model, and this is consistent with a less realistic latitudinal rainfall profile than found in the HadGEM3-RA simulations.

Features of clouds and convection during the pre- and post-onset periods of the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Wang, Chenghai

2016-02-01

The statistical characteristics of the vertical structure of clouds in the Asian summer monsoon region are investigated using two CloudSat standard products (Geometrical Profiling Product (GEOPROF) and GEOPROF-lidar) during the pre- and post-onset periods of the Asian summer monsoon, from April to August in 2007-2010. The characteristics of the vertical structure of clouds are analyzed and compared for different underlying surfaces in four subregions during this period. Also analyzed are the evolution of precipitation and hydrometeors with the northward advance of the Asian summer monsoon, and different hydrometeor characteristics attributed to the underlying surface features. The results indicate that the vertical cloud amounts increase significantly after the summer monsoon onset; this increase occurs first in the upper troposphere and then at lower altitudes over tropical regions (South Asian and tropical Northwest Pacific regions). The heights of the cloud top ascend, and the vertical height between the top and the base of the whole cloud increases. Single-layer (SL) and double-layer (DL) hydrometeors contribute over half and one third of the cloudiness in these 5 months (April to August), respectively. The multilayer frequencies increase in four different regions, and cloud layer depths (CLD) increase after the summer monsoon onset. These changes are stronger in tropical regions than in subtropical regions, while the vertical distance between cloud layers (VDCL) deceases in tropical regions and increases in subtropical regions.

Sensible and latent heat forced divergent circulations in the West African Monsoon System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagos, S.; Zhang, C.

2008-12-01

Field properties of divergent circulation are utilized to identify the roles of various diabatic processes in forcing moisture transport in the dynamics of the West African Monsoon and its seasonal cycle. In this analysis, the divergence field is treated as a set of point sources and is partitioned into two sub-sets corresponding to latent heat release and surface sensible heat flux at each respective point. The divergent circulation associated with each set is then calculated from the Poisson's equation using Gauss-Seidel iteration. Moisture transport by each set of divergent circulation is subsequently estimated. The results show different roles of the divergent circulations forced by surface sensible and latent heating in the monsoon dynamics. Surface sensible heating drives a shallow meridional circulation, which transports moisture deep into the continent at the polar side of the monsoon rain band and thereby promotes the seasonal northward migration of monsoon precipitation during the monsoon onset season. In contrast, the circulation directly associated with latent heating is deep and the corresponding moisture convergence is within the region of precipitation. Latent heating also induces dry air advection from the north. Neither effect promotes the seasonal northward migration of precipitation. The relative contributions of the processes associated with latent and sensible heating to the net moisture convergence, and hence the seasonal evolution of monsoon precipitation, depend on the background moisture.

Role of Madden-Julian Oscillation in Modulating Monsoon Retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Madhu; Bhatla, R.

2018-01-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on a seasonal scale. The impact of MJO on different epochs, viz., onset, advance and active break is well known. There can be several MJO events in a season and it may enhance/suppress the retreat process. The present study aims to find the MJO-modulated retreat of monsoon. The results suggest that the fastest retreat of monsoon occurred in the years 2007 and 2008, while slowest retreat of monsoon occurred in the year 1979. The retreat features of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are investigated with the MJO phase and amplitude variations. The daily MJO indices for the retreat period 1979-2016 are used. The results reveal that the MJO strength decreases during the transition phase (i.e., summer monsoon to winter monsoon transition). The monsoon retreat is most favored by strong MJO phase 4 and phase 5. The fastest retreat of monsoon occurred in the years 2007 and 2008, while the slowest retreat of monsoon occurred in the year 1979. There exists a weak positive correlation between the MJO amplitude and the retreat period of monsoon. The monsoon retreat is most favored by strong MJO phase 4 and phase 5. The MJO amplitude variations during MJO phases 1-8 suggest that the MJO amplitude decreases with increase in retreat period. The MJO-modulated retreat results in slow retreat of monsoon, whereas fast and normal retreat of monsoon is seen on rare occasions. Weak MJO events lead to normal retreat of monsoon.

A robust definition of South Asian monsoon onset and retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Bordoni, S.

2017-12-01

In this study, we revisit one of the major outstanding problems in the monsoon literature: defining the onset and retreat of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM). The SASM rainy season, which provides essential water resources to densely populated and rapidly growing countries in South Asia, begins with a dramatic increase in rainfall and an abrupt reversal in near-surface winds, and concludes with a more gradual transition at season's end. Many different measures of SASM onset and retreat have been developed for specific applications, but there is no widely accepted and broadly applicable objective definition. Existing definitions generally rely upon thresholds, posing challenges such as sensitivity to threshold selection and susceptibility to false onsets due to transient weather conditions. In this study, we use the large-scale atmospheric moisture budget to define an SASM onset and retreat index that captures the seasonal transitions in both precipitation and circulation. Our use of change point detection eliminates the need for thresholds, provides a precise characterization of the timescales and stages of the SASM, and allows straightforward comparison across different datasets and climate models. This robust and flexible methodology is ideal for studying variability and trends in monsoon timing, as well as comparing model performance and assessing future SASM changes in climate simulations.

Impacts of snow darkening by absorbing aerosols on South Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K. M.; Lau, W. K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Sang, J.; Yasunari, T. J.; Koster, R. D.

2016-12-01

Seasonal heating over the Tibetan Plateau is a main driver of the onset of the South Asian Monsoon. Aerosols can play an important role in pre- and early monsoon seasonal heating process over the Tibetan Plateau by increasing atmospheric heating in the northern India, and by heating of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan slopes, via reduction of albedo of the snow surface through surface deposition - the so call snow-darkening effect (SDE). To examine the impact of SDE on weather and climate during late spring and early summer, two sets of NASA/GEOS-5 model simulations with and without SDE are conducted. Results show that SDE-induced surface heating accelerates snow melts and increases surface temperature over 4K in the entire Tibetan Plateau regions during boreal summer. Warmer Tibetan Plateau further accelerates seasonal warming in the upper troposphere and increases the north-south temperature gradient between the Tibetan Plateau and the equatorial Indian Ocean. This reversal of the north-south temperature gradient is a primary cause of the onset of the South Asian monsoon. SDE-induced increase of the meridional temperature gradient drives meridional circulation and enhanced upper tropospheric easterlies and lower tropospheric westerlies, and intensifies monsoon circulation and rainfall. This pattern enhances the EHP-like circulation anomalies induced by atmospheric heating of absorbing aerosols over the northern India. SDE-induced change in the India subcontinent differs that in Eurasia. SDE-induced land-atmospheric interactions in two regions will be also compared.

Seasonally-varying mechanical impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoni, S.; Park, H.

2011-12-01

Land-sea thermal contrast and heating of the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau have long been considered the main driving of the large-scale South-Asian monsoon circulation. Recent works (e.g., Bordoni and Schneider 2008, Boos and Kuang 2010) have challenged this prevailing view, by suggesting that monsoons can occur even in the absence of zonal inhomogeneities and that the Tibetan Plateau might be acting more as a mechanical obstacle to the circulation than as its main heat source. Elucidating the role of land-sea contrast and of the Tibetan Plateau on the current South Asian climate is the first step to understand how this might have evolved on geological time-scales and how it might respond to changing radiative forcing and land surface conditions in future decades. In this work, we examine the mechanical impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian monsoon in a hierarchy of atmospheric general circulations models. During the pre-monsoon season and monsoon onset (April-May-June), when westerlies over the southern Tibetan Plateau are still strong, the Tibetan Plateau triggers early monsoon rainfall downstream. The downstream moist convection is accompanied by strong monsoonal low-level winds and subsidence upstream of the Tibetan Plateau. In experiments where the Tibetan Plateau is removed, monsoon onset occurs about one month later, but the circulation becomes progressively stronger and reaches comparable strength during the mature phase. During the mature and decaying phase of the monsoon (July-August-September), when westerlies over the southern Tibetan Plateau almost disappear, the strength of the monsoon circulation is largely unaffected by the presence of the Plateau. A dry dynamical core with east-west oriented narrow mountains in the subtropics consistently simulates downstream convergence with background zonal westerlies over the mountain range. In a moist atmosphere, the mechanically-driven downstream convergence is expected to be associated with significant moisture convergence. We argue that the mechanically-driven downstream convergence in the presence of the Tibetan Plateau is responsible for the zonally asymmetric monsoon onset, particularly over the Bay of Bengal and South China.

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

A composite study of onset of the Australian summer monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendon, Harry H.; Liebmann, Brant

1990-01-01

The circulation changes that accompany an onset (defined as the first occurrence of wet 850-mb westerly winds at Darwin, Australia) of the Australian summer monsoon are documented by a composite study for the years 1957-1987. Composites of atmospheric fields at stations in and about the Australian tropics are constructed relative to the onset data at Darwin. It is shown that the composite onset is dominated by a slow eastward migration of a deep-baroclinic convective circulation displaced south of the equator. This propagating anomaly exhibited many features of the so-called 40-50 day oscillation, including an upper level anticyclone that accompanies the convective anomaly.

Water vapour variability during Indian monsoon over Trivandrum observed using Microwave Radiometer and GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, Suresh C.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Ramachandran Pillai, Renju; Uma, K. N.; Saha, Korak

2012-07-01

The Indian summer monsoon is a highly regular synoptic event, providing most of the annual rainfall received over the sub-continent. Trivandrum, at the southwestern tip of Indian peninsula, is considered as the gate way of Indian monsoon, with its climatological onset on June 01. During this season, the region, experiences large seasonal variation in water vapor, rain fall and wind (speed and direction) in the troposphere. The variability in water vapor and wind information are the vital parameters in forecasting the onset of monsoon. This study focuses on water vapor measurements over the tropical coastal station Trivandrum (8.5oN & 76.9oE) using microwave techniques and the analyses with an effort to link the seasonal variability of water vapor with the onset of monsoon. At Trivandrum a hyper-spectral microwave radiometer profiler (MRP) and a Triple-frequency global positioning system receiver (GPS) have been in regular operation since April 2010. A station-dependent simple empirical relation suitable for the equatorial atmospheric condition is formulated to map the nonhydrostatic component of GPS tropospheric delay to the PWV, based on the columnar water vapor estimated from the multi-year daily radiosonde ascends from Trivandrum. A trained artificial neural network (ANN) with climatological atmospheric data of Trivandrum, is employed to derive the water vapor from the MRP brightness temperature measurements. The accuracy, reliability and consistency of PWV measurements over the tropical coastal station from these two independent instruments are assessed by comparing PWV derived from MRP and GPS measurements which resulted an rms deviation of <1.2mm (with correlation coefficient of ~0.98). This confirms the PWV derived over Trivandrum from microwave measurements are accurate even during the monsoon period in the presence of clouds and rain. PWV from microwave radiometer measurements for more than two years are used to study the water vapour variability during monsoons periods. The study has also been extended to characterise the onset of South-West monsoon. The results will be presented during the meeting.

Species-specific and seasonal differences in chlorophyll fluorescence and photosynthetic light response among three evergreen species in a Madrean sky island mixed conifer forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potts, D. L.; Minor, R. L.; Braun, Z.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.

2012-12-01

Unlike the snowmelt-dominated hydroclimate of more northern mountainous regions, the hydroclimate of the Madrean sky islands is characterized by snowmelt and convective storms associated with the North American Monsoon. These mid-summer storms trigger biological activity and are important drivers of primary productivity. For example, at the highest elevations where mixed conifer forests occur, ecosystem carbon balance is influenced by monsoon rains. Whereas these storms' significance is increasingly recognized at the ecosystem scale, species-specific physiological responses to the monsoon are poorly known. Prior to and following monsoon onset, we measured pre-dawn and light-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence as well as photosynthetic light response in southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in a Madrean sky island mixed conifer forest near Tucson, Arizona. Photochemical quenching (qp), an indicator of the proportion of open PSII reaction centers, was greatest in P. strobiformis and least in P. menziesii and increased in response to monsoon rains (repeated-measures ANOVA; species, F2,14 = 6.17, P = 0.012; time, F2,14= 8.17, P = 0.013). In contrast, non-photochemical quenching (qN), an indicator of heat dissipation ability, was greatest in P. ponderosa and least in P. menziesii, but was not influenced by monsoon onset (repeated-measures ANOVA; species, F2,12 = 4.18, P = 0.042). Estimated from leaf area-adjusted photosynthetic light response curves, maximum photosynthetic rate (Amax) was greatest in P. ponderosa and least in P. menziesii (repeated-measures ANOVA; species, F2,8= 40.8, P = 0.001). Surprisingly, while the monsoon positively influenced Amax among P. ponderosa and P. strobiformis, Amax of P. menziesii declined with monsoon onset (repeated-measures ANOVA; species x time, F2,8 = 13.8, P = 0.002). Calculated as the initial slope of the photosynthetic light response curve, light-use efficiency (AQE) was similar among P. strobiformis and P. ponderosa and least in P. menziesii (repeated-measures ANOVA; species, F2,8 = 13.83, P = 0.002). Across all three species, monsoon onset increased AQE (repeated-measures ANOVA; time, F1,8= 10.04, P = 0.01). Likewise, P. strobiformis and P. ponderosa shared a similar, greater light compensation point than P. menziesii (repeated-measures ANOVA; species, F2,8 = 5.89, P = 0.02). However, across species, monsoon onset did not influence light compensation points. These results support the hypothesis that the monsoon has species-specific effects on evergreen physiological performance and are broadly consistent with predictions of stress tolerance based on species' latitudinal and elevational range distributions. Moreover, with year-to-year rainfall variability predicted to increase under future climate scenarios, species-specific functional traits related to stress tolerance and photosynthesis may promote ecosystem functional resilience in Madrean sky island mixed conifer forests.

The impacts of summer monsoons on the ozone budget of the atmospheric boundary layer of the Asia-Pacific region.

PubMed

Hou, Xuewei; Zhu, Bin; Fei, Dongdong; Wang, Dongdong

2015-01-01

The seasonal and inter-annual variations of ozone (O3) in the atmospheric boundary layer of the Asia-Pacific Ocean were investigated using model simulations (2001-2007) from the Model of Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4). The simulated O3 and diagnostic precipitation are in good agreement with the observations. Model results suggest that the Asia-Pacific monsoon significantly influences the seasonal and inter-annual variations of ozone. The differences of anthropogenic emissions and zonal winds in meridional directions cause a pollutants' transition zone at approximately 20°-30°N. The onset of summer monsoons with a northward migration of the rain belt leads the transition zone to drift north, eventually causing a summer minimum of ozone to the north of 30°N. In years with an early onset of summer monsoons, strong inflows of clean oceanic air lead to low ozone at polluted oceanic sites near the continent, while strong outflows from the continent exist, resulting in high levels of O3 over remote portions of the Asia-Pacific Ocean. The reverse is true in years when the summer monsoon onset is late. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical weather prediction in low latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.

1985-01-01

Based on the results of a number of numerical prediction experiments, the differential heating between land and ocean is an important and critical factor for investigation of phenomenon such as the onset of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. The pre-onset period during the month of May shows a rather persistent flow field in the monsoon region. At low levels the circulation exhibits anticyclonic excursions over the Arabian Sea, flowing essentially parallel to the west coast of India from the north. Over the Indian subcontinent the major feature is a shallow heat low over northern India. As the heat sources commence a rapid northwestward movement toward the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, an interesting configuration of the large-scale divergent circulation occurs. A favorable configuration for a rapid exchange of energy from the divergent to the rotational kinetic energy develops. Strong low level monsoonal circulations evolve, attendant with that the onset of monsoon rains occurs. In order to test this observational sequence, a series of short-range numerical prediction experiments were initiated to define the initial heat sources.

Formation of the southern Bay of Bengal cold pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Umasankar; Vinayachandran, P. N.; Behara, Ambica

2016-09-01

A pool of relatively cooler water, called here as the southern Bay of Bengal cold pool, exists around Sri Lanka and southern tip of India during the summer monsoon. This cold pool is enveloped by the larger Indian Ocean warm pool and is believed to affect the intraseasonal variations of summer monsoon rainfall. In this study, we have investigated the mechanisms responsible for the formation of the cold pool using a combination of both satellite data sets and a general circulation model of the Indian Ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) within the cold pool, after the steady increase during the February-April period, decreases first during a pre-monsoon spell in April and then with the monsoon onset during May. The onset cooling is stronger (~1.8°C) than the pre-monsoon cooling (~0.8°C) and culminates in the formation of the cold pool. Analysis of the model temperature equation shows that SST decrease during both events is primarily due to a decrease in incoming solar radiation and an increase in latent heat loss. These changes in the net heat flux are brought about by the arrival of cloud bands above the cold pool during both periods. During the pre-monsoon period, a cloud band originates in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and subsequently arrives above the cold pool. Similarly, during the monsoon onset, a band of clouds originating in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean comes over the cold pool region. A lead-lag correlation calculation between daily SST and rainfall anomalies suggest that cooling in SST occurs in response to rainfall events with a lag of 5 days. These sequence of events occur every year with certain amount of interannual variability.

Vertical structure of atmospheric boundary layer over Ranchi during the summer monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Sagarika; Srivastava, Nishi; Kumar, Manoj

2018-04-01

Thermodynamic structure and variability in the atmospheric boundary layer have been investigated with the help of balloon-borne GPS radiosonde over a monsoon trough station Ranchi (Lat. 23°45'N, Long. 85°43'E, India) during the summer monsoon season (June-September) for a period of 2011-2013. Virtual potential temperature gradient method is used for the determination of mixed layer height (MLH). The MLH has been found to vary in the range of 1000-1300 m during the onset, 600-900 m during the active and 1400-1750 m during the break phase of monsoon over this region. Inter-annual variations noticed in MLH could be associated with inter-annual variability in convection and rainfall prevailing over the region. Along with the MLH, the cloud layer heights are also derived from the thermodynamic profiles for the onset, active and break phases of monsoon. Cloud layer height varied a lot during different phases of the monsoon. For the determination of boundary-layer convection, thermodynamic parameter difference (δθ = θ es- θ e) between saturated equivalent potential temperature (θ es ) and equivalent potential temperature (θ e) is used. It is a good indicator of convection and indicates the intense and suppressed convection during different phases of monsoon.

On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

Asian Monsoons Observed by the Scatterometers and Complementary Spacebased Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. T.; Tang, W.; Xie, X.

1998-01-01

Monsoons are the seasonal changes of winds forced by continent-ocean temperature contrast. Their annual onset, intensity, and retreat vary greatly, and the variation has strong economic impact and may cause severe human suffering.

Lower tropospheric ozone over India and its linkage to the South Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Xiao; Zhang, Lin; Liu, Xiong; Gao, Meng; Zhao, Yuanhong; Shao, Jingyuan

2018-03-01

Lower tropospheric (surface to 600 hPa) ozone over India poses serious risks to both human health and crops, and potentially affects global ozone distribution through frequent deep convection in tropical regions. Our current understanding of the processes controlling seasonal and long-term variations in lower tropospheric ozone over this region is rather limited due to spatially and temporally sparse observations. Here we present an integrated process analysis of the seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends of lower tropospheric ozone over India and its linkage to the South Asian monsoon using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations for years 2006-2014 interpreted with a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulation for 1990-2010. OMI observed lower tropospheric ozone over India averaged for 2006-2010, showing the highest concentrations (54.1 ppbv) in the pre-summer monsoon season (May) and the lowest concentrations (40.5 ppbv) in the summer monsoon season (August). Process analyses in GEOS-Chem show that hot and dry meteorological conditions and active biomass burning together contribute to 5.8 Tg more ozone being produced in the lower troposphere in India in May than January. The onset of the summer monsoon brings ozone-unfavorable meteorological conditions and strong upward transport, which all lead to large decreases in the lower tropospheric ozone burden. Interannually, we find that both OMI and GEOS-Chem indicate strong positive correlations (r = 0.55-0.58) between ozone and surface temperature in pre-summer monsoon seasons, with larger correlations found in high NOx emission regions reflecting NOx-limited production conditions. Summer monsoon seasonal mean ozone levels are strongly controlled by monsoon strengths. Lower ozone concentrations are found in stronger monsoon seasons mainly due to less ozone net chemical production. Furthermore, model simulations over 1990-2010 estimate a mean annual trend of 0.19 ± 0.07 (p value < 0.01) ppbv yr-1 in Indian lower tropospheric ozone over this period, which are mainly driven by increases in anthropogenic emissions with a small contribution (about 7 %) from global methane concentration increases.

Inter- annual variability of water vapor over an equatorial coastal station using Microwave Radiometer observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renju, Ramachandran Pillai; Uma, K. N.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Mathew, Nizy; Raju C, Suresh

The south-western region of the Indian peninsula is the gateway of Indian summer monsoon. This region experiences continuous monsoon rain for a longer period of about six months from June to November. The amount of water vapor variability is one of the important parameters to study the onset, active and break phases of the monsoon. Keeping this in view, a multi-frequency Microwave Radiometer Profiler (MRP) has been made operational for continuous measurements of water vapor over an equatorial coastal station Thiruvananthapuram (8.5(°) N, 76.9(°) E) since April 2010. The MRP estimated precipitable water vapor (PWV) for different seasons including monsoon periods have been evaluated by comparing with the collocated GPS derived water vapor and radiosonde measurements. The diurnal, seasonal and inter annual variation of water vapor has been studied for the last four years (2010-2013) over this station. The significant diurnal variability of water vapor is found only during the winter and pre-monsoon periods (Dec -April). The vertical distribution of water vapour is studied in order to understand its variability especially during the onset of monsoon. During the building up of south-west monsoon, the specific humidity increases to ˜ 10g/kg in the altitude range of 4-6 km and consistently maintained it throughout the active spells and reduces to below 2g/kg during break spells of monsoon. The instrument details and the results will be presented.

Impact of the springtime Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau on the onset on the Indian summer monsoon in coupled forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsolini, Yvan; Senan, Retish; Weisheimer, Antje; Vitart, Frederic; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Stockdale, Timothy; Dutra, Emanuel

2016-04-01

The springtime snowpack over the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region has long been suggested to be an influential factor on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. In the frame of the SPECS project, we have assessed the impact of realistic snow initialization in springtime over HTP on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. We examine a suite of coupled ocean-atmosphere 4-month ensemble reforecasts made at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), using the Seasonal Forecasting System 4. The reforecasts were initialized on 1 April every year for the period 1981-2010. In these seasonal reforecasts, the snow is initialized "realistically" with ERA-Interim/Land Reanalysis. In addition, we carried out an additional set of forecasts, identical in all aspects except that initial conditions for snow-related land surface variables over the HTP region are randomized. We show that high snow depth over HTP influences the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient reversal that marks the monsoon onset. Composite difference based on a normalized HTP snow index reveal that, in high snow years, (i) the onset is delayed by about 8 days, and (ii) negative precipitation anomalies and warm surface conditions prevail over India. We show that about half of this delay can be attributed to the realistic initialization of snow over the HTP region. We further demonstrate that high April snow depths over HTP are not uniquely influenced by either the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole or the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds.

PubMed

Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D; Swart, Peter K; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M; Blättler, Clara L; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M; Pratiwi, Santi D; Reijmer, John J G; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L; Sloss, Craig R; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R

2016-07-20

The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of particulate organic matter. A weaker 'proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

Evolution of the net surface shortwave radiation over the Indian Ocean during summer MONEX (1979) - A satellite description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gautier, C.

1986-01-01

The evolution of the net shortwave (NSW) radiation fields during the monsoon of 1979 was analyzed, using geostationary satellite data, collected before, during, and after the monsoon onset. It is seen, from the time sequence of NSW fields, that during the preonset phase the characteristics of the NSW field are dominated by a strong maximum in the entire Arabian Sea and by a strong minimum in the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, the minimum being associated with the intense convective activity occurring in that region. As the season evolves, the minima of NSW associated with the large scale convective activity propagate westward in the equatorial ocean. During the monsoon onset, there occurs an explosive onset of the convection activity in the Arabian Sea: the maximum has retreated towards the Somalia coast, and most of the sea then experiences a strong minimum of NSW associated with the intense precipitation occurring along the southwestern coast of the Indian subcontinent.

A Global-Scale Examination of Monsoon-Related Precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janowiak, John E.; Xie, Pingping

2003-12-01

A pentad version of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project global precipitation dataset is used to document the annual and interannual variations in precipitation over monsoon regions around the globe. An algorithm is described that determines objectively wet season onset and withdrawal for individual years, and this tool is used to examine the behavior of various characteristics of the major monsoon systems. The definition of onset and withdrawal are determined by examining the ramp-up and diminution of rainfall within the context of the climatological rainfall at each location. Also examined are interannual variations in onset and withdrawal and their relationship to rainy season precipitation accumulations. Changes in the distribution of “heavy” and “light” precipitation events are examined for years in which “abundant” and “poor” wet seasons are observed, and associations with variations in large-scale atmospheric general circulation features are also examined. In particular, some regions of the world have strong associations between wet season rainfall and global-scale patterns of 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies.

Convective Systems Over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shie, C.-L.; Johnson, D.; Simpson, J.; Braun, S.; Johnson, R.; Ciesielski, P. E.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided rainfall estimates which allows for comparisons with those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a low earth orbit satellite designed to measure rainfall from space. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1-km grid size) is used to understand and quantify the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea. This is the first (loud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE-model results captured many of the observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the temporal variation of the simulated rainfall compares quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall variation. The time and domain-averaged temperature (heating/cooling) and water vapor (drying/ moistening) budgets are in good agreement with observations. The GCE-model-simulated rainfall amount also agrees well with TRMM rainfall data. The results show there is more evaporation from the ocean surface prior to the onset of the monsoon than after the on-et of monsoon when rainfall increases. Forcing due to net radiation (solar heating minus longwave cooling) is responsible for about 25% of the precipitation in SCSMEX The transfer of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere does not contribute significantly to the rainfall in SCSMEX. Model sensitivity tests indicated that total rain production is reduced 17-18% in runs neglecting the ice phase. The SCSMEX results are compared to other GCE-model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA). Large-scale forcing vie temperature and water vapor tendency, is the major energy source for net condensation in the tropical cases. The effects of large-scale cooling exceed that of large-scale moistening in the west pacific warm pool region and eastern Atlantic region. For SCSMEX, however, the effects of large-scale moistening predominate. Net radiation and sensible and latent hc,it fluxes play a much more important role in the central USA.

Understanding the impact of ENSO on the variability and sources of moisture for precipitation in mainland southeast Asia during the onset of the Indian summer monsoon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Jones, D. B. A.; Dyer, E.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Noone, D.

2017-12-01

Seasonal variation of precipitation in mainland southeast Asia (SEA) is dominated by the Indian summer monsoon system and the western Pacific winter monsoon system, while the interannual variability of precipitation in this region can be related to remote variability, such as variations in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Here we use a version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2) with water tagging capability, to examine the impact of ENSO on precipitation in mainland Southeast Asia during the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. In the model, water is tagged as it is evaporated from geographically defined regions and tracked through phase changes in the atmosphere until it is precipitated. The model simulates well the seasonal variability in SEA precipitation as captured by multiple observational data sets, and the variations in precipitation during the monsoon onset is well correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index. We examine the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with El Niño and La Niña conditions, and the implication of these changes for moisture transport to SEA. In particular, we quantify the relative ENSO-induced changes in the local and Pacific and Indian Ocean moisture sources for SEA precipitation. We also assess the changes in the moisture source regions over the seasonal cycle to obtain an understanding of the variability in the moisture sources for SEA precipitation from seasonal to interannual time scales.

Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

2014-12-01

Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

The Abrupt Onset of the Modern South Asian Monsoon Winds (iodp Exp. 359)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betzler, C.; Eberli, G. P.; Kroon, D.; Wright, J. D.; Swart, P. K.; Nath, B. N.; Reijmer, J.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.

2016-12-01

The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most extreme features in Earth's climate system, yet its initiation and variations are not well established. The SAM is a seasonal reversal of winds accompanied by changes in precipitation with heavy rain during the summer monsoon. It is one of the most intense annually recurring climatic elements and of immense importance in supplying moisture to the Indian subcontinent thus affecting human population and vegetation, as well as marine biota in the surrounding seas. The seasonal precipitation change is one of the SAM elements most noticed on land, whereas the reversal of the wind regime is the dominating driver of circulation in the central and northern Indian Ocean realm. New data acquired during International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 359 from the Inner Sea of the Maldives provide a previously unread archive that reveals an abrupt onset of the SAM-linked ocean circulation pattern and its relationship to the long term Neogene climate cooling. In particular it registers ocean current fluctuations and changes of intermediate water mass properties for the last 25 myrs that are directly related to the monsoon. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents yields an age of 12.9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of sedimentary organic matter. A weaker `proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

Desert Dust and Monsoon Rain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2014-01-01

For centuries, inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent have know that heavy dust events brought on by strong winds occur frequently in the pre-monsoon season, before the onset of heavy rain. Yet scientists have never seriously considered the possibility that natural dust can affect monsoon rainfall. Up to now, most studies of the impacts of aerosols on Indian monsoon rainfall have focused on anthropogenic aerosols in the context of climate change. However, a few recent studies have show that aerosols from antropogenic and natural sources over the Indian subcontinent may affect the transition from break to active monsoon phases on short timescales of days to weeks. Writing in Nature Geoscience, Vinoj and colleagues describe how they have shown that desert dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia can strenghten the summer monsoon over the Indial subcontinent in a matter of days.

A major reorganization of Asian climate by the early Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Z. T.; Sun, B.; Zhang, Z. S.; Peng, S. Z.; Xiao, G. Q.; Ge, J. Y.; Hao, Q. Z.; Qiao, Y. S.; Liang, M. Y.; Liu, J. F.; Yin, Q. Z.; Wei, J. J.

2008-08-01

The global climate system experienced a series of drastic changes during the Cenozoic. In Asia, these include the climate transformation from a zonal pattern to a monsoon-dominated pattern, the disappearance of typical subtropical aridity, and the onset of inland deserts. Despite major advances in the last two decades in characterizing and understanding these climate phenomena, disagreements persist relative to the timing, behaviors and underlying causes. This paper addresses these issues mainly based on two lines of evidence. First, we compiled newly collected data from geological indicators of the Cenozoic environment in China as paleoenvironmental maps of ten intervals. In confirming the earlier observation that a zonal climate pattern was transformed into a monsoonal one, the maps within the Miocene indicate that this change was achieved by the early Miocene, roughly consistent with the onset of loess deposition in China. Although a monsoon-like regime would have existed in the Eocene, it was restricted to tropical-subtropical regions. The latitudinal oscillations of the climate zones during the Paleogene are likely attributable to the imbalance in evolution of polar ice-sheets between the two hemispheres. Secondly, we examine the relevant depositional and soil forming processes of the Miocene loess-soil sequences to determine the circulation characteristics with emphasis on the early Miocene. Continuous eolian deposition in the middle reaches of the Yellow River since the early Miocene firmly indicates the formation of inland deserts, which have been constantly maintained during the past 22 Ma. Grain-size gradients between loess sections indicate northerly dust-carrying winds from northern sources, a clear indication of an Asian winter monsoon system. Meanwhile, well-developed Luvisols show evidence that moisture from the oceans reached northern China. This evidence shows the coexistence of two kinds of circulations, one from the ocean carrying moisture and another from the inland deserts transporting dust. The formation of the early Miocene paleosols resulted from interactive soil forming and dust deposition processes in these two seasonally alternating monsoonal circulations. The much stronger development of the early Miocene soils compared to those in the Quaternary loess indicates that summer monsoons were either significantly stronger, more persistent through the year, or both. These lines of evidence indicate a joint change in circulation and inland aridity by the early Miocene and suggest a dynamic linkage of them. Our recent sensitivity tests with a general circulation model, along with relevant geological data, suggest that the onset of these contrasting wet/dry responses, as well as the change from the "planetary" subtropical aridity pattern to the "inland" aridity pattern, resulted from the combined effects of Tibetan uplift and withdrawal of the Paratethys seaway in central Asia, as suggested by earlier experiments. The spreading of South China Sea also helped to enhance the south-north contrast of humidity. The Miocene loess record provides a vital insight that these tectonic factors had evolved by the early Miocene to a threshold sufficient to cause this major climate reorganization in Asia.

Impact of East Asian Winter and Australian Summer Monsoons on the Enhanced Surface Westerlies over the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean Preceding the El Niño Onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Zhang, R.; Bourassa, M. A.

2014-12-01

Composite analysis from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis datasets over the period 1948-2007 indicates that stronger East Asian winter monsoons (EAWM) and stronger Australian summer monsoons (ASM) generally co-exist in boreal winters preceding the onset of El Niño, although the EAWM tend to be weak after 1990, probably because of the decadal shift of EAWM and the change in El Niño events from cold-tongue type to warm-pool type. The anomalous EAWM and ASM enhance surface westerlies over the western tropical Pacific Ocean (WTP). It is proposed that the enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP prior to El Niño onset are generally associated with the concurrent anomalous EAWM and ASM. A simple analytical atmospheric model is constructed to test the hypothesis that the emergence of enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP can be linked to concurrent EAWM and ASM anomalies. Model results indicate that when anomalous northerlies from the EAWM converge with anomalous southerlies from the ASM, westerly anomalies over the WTP are enhanced. This result provides a possible explanation of the co-impact of the EAWM and the ASM on the onset of El Niño through enhancing the surface westerly over the WTP.

Large-scale control of the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion in August

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chi-Hua; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2017-12-01

The summer monsoon inversion in the Arabian Sea is characterized by a large amount of low clouds and August as the peak season. Atmospheric stratification associated with the monsoon inversion has been considered a local system influenced by the advancement of the India-Pakistan monsoon. Empirical and numerical evidence from this study suggests that the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion is linked to a broader-scale monsoon evolution across the African Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia-Western North Pacific (WNP), rather than being a mere byproduct of the India-Pakistan monsoon progression. In August, the upper-tropospheric anticyclone in South Asia extends sideways corresponding with the enhanced precipitation in the subtropical WNP, equatorial Indian Ocean, and African Sahel while the middle part of this anticyclone weakens over the Arabian Sea. The increased heating in the adjacent monsoon systems creates a suppression effect on the Arabian Sea, suggesting an apparent competition among the Africa-Asia-WNP monsoon subsystems. The peak Sahel rainfall in August, together with enhanced heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean, produces a critical effect on strengthening the Arabian Sea thermal inversion. By contrast, the WNP monsoon onset which signifies the eastward expansion of the subtropical Asian monsoon heating might play a secondary or opposite role in the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion.

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.

2007-10-01

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

Anomalies of the Asian Monsoon Induced by Aerosol Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, M. K.

2004-01-01

Impacts of aerosols on the Asian summer monsoon are studied using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), with radiative forcing derived from three-dimensional distributions of five aerosol species i.e., black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport Model (GOCART). Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in & early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also I i enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface' temperature cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.

The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, K. M.; Grimm, R.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Marino, G.; Ziegler, M.; Rohling, E. J.

2016-05-01

The Mediterranean basin is sensitive to global sea-level changes and African monsoon variability on orbital timescales. Both of these processes are thought to be important to the deposition of organic-rich sediment layers or 'sapropels' throughout the eastern Mediterranean, yet their relative influences remain ambiguous. A related issue is that an assumed 3-kyr lag between boreal insolation maxima and sapropel mid-points remains to be tested. Here we present new geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1 (Holocene), S3, S4, and S5 (Marine Isotope Stage 5) in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows detailed examination of the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. We find that sapropel onset was near-synchronous with monsoon run-off into the eastern Mediterranean, but that insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings were not systematic through the last glacial cycle. These latter phasings instead appear to relate to sea-level changes. We propose that persistent meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic (e.g., at glacial terminations) modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. These observations may reconcile apparent model-data offsets with respect to the orbital pacing of the African monsoon. Our observations also imply that the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. Finally, we surmise that both sea-level rise and monsoon run-off contributed to surface-water buoyancy changes at times of sapropel deposition, and their relative influences differed per sapropel case, depending on their magnitudes. Sea-level rise was clearly important for sapropel S1, whereas monsoon forcing was more important for sapropels S3, S4, and S5.

On the Feasibility of Tracking the Monsoon History by Using Ancient Wind Direction Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego, D.; Ribera, P.; Peña-Ortiz, C.; Vega, I.; Gómez, F. D. P.; Ordoñez-Perez, P.; Garcia-Hererra, R.

2015-12-01

In this work, we use old wind direction records to reconstruct indices for the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Since centuries ago, ships departing from the naval European powers circumnavigated Africa in their route to the Far East. Most of these ships took high-quality observations preserved in logbooks. We show that wind direction observations taken aboard ships can be used to track the seasonal wind reversal typical of monsoonal circulations. The persistence of the SW winds in the 20W-17W and 7N-13N region is highly correlated with the WAM strength and Sahel's precipitation. It has been possible to build a WAM index back to the 19th Century. Our results show that in the Sahel, the second half of the 19thCentury was significantly wetter than present day. The relation of the WAM with the ENSO cycle, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was low and instable from the 1840s to the 1970s, when they abruptly suffered an unprecedented reinforcement which last up to the present day. The persistence of the SSW wind in the 60E-80E and 8N-12N area has been used to track the ISM onset since the 1880s. We found evidences of later than average onset dates during the 1900-1925 and 1970-1990 periods and earlier than average onset between 1940 and 1965. A significant relation between the ISM onset and the PDO restricted to shifts from negative to positive PDO phases has been found. The most significant contribution of our study is the fact that we have shown that it is possible to build consistent monsoon indices of instrumental character using solely direct observations of wind direction. Our indices have been generated by using data currently available in the ICOADS 2.5 database, but a large amount of wind observations for periods previous to the 20thcentury still remain not explored in thousands of logbooks preserved in British archives. The interest of unveil these data to track the monsoons for more than 200 -or even 300 years- it is difficult to exaggerate and will largely justify the time and economic costs of its digitation. This research was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad through the project INCITE (CGL2013-44530-P).

Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2002-01-01

This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

Summer Monsoon, Kalahari Desert, Africa

NASA Image and Video Library

1992-11-01

STS052-152-047 (22 Oct- 1 Nov 1992) --- The Kalahari Desert had not seen any significant rainfall for months before the launch of STS-52. Here, Shuttle astronauts have captured the onset of the (Southern Hemisphere) summer monsoon over the Kalahari Desert, as illustrated by the large thunderstorm towers poking up through the sun's terminator. The summer monsoon, with its associated thunderstorms, generally lasts from November through March. Scientist observers of this area report that the summer monsoon contributes most of the annual rainfall to this environmentally sensitive area. Shuttle nadir position: 28.0 degrees south, 25.1 degrees east. The center of the scene is 22.0 degrees south, 25.0 degrees east, 16:20:04 GMT.

Cloud-Aerosol Interaction and Its Impact on the Onset of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K.-M.; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee

2004-01-01

Effect of aerosols from biomass burning on the early development of East Asian monsoon is investigated using various satellites and in situ observations including TOMS Aerosol Index (AI). GPCP precipitation, ISCCP cloud cover, and GISS surface air temperature. Based on TRMM fire produce and mean winds fields at 85Omb. we identified the source and interaction regions of aerosols and investigated aerosol-cloud-precipitation characteristics in those regions. During March-April, northern Thailand, Myanmar. and Laos are major source of smoke from the combustion of agricultural waste. Excessive smoke. represented by high AI, is observed especially during dry and cloud-free year. On the other hand. there is no ground source of smoke in the interaction region. The most of aerosols in this area are believed to be transported from the source region. AI is appeared to be correlated with more clouds and less precipitation in interaction region. It suggests that the aerosol-cloud interaction can alter the distribution of cloud and the characteristics of regional hydrology. Aerosol-induced changes in atmospheric stability and associated circulation turns out to be very important to pre-monsoon rainfall pattern in southern China. Prolonged biomass burning is especially effective in changing rainfall pattern during April and May. Results suggest that excessive aerosol transported from source region may intensify pre-monsoon rain band over central China in May and lead to early monsoon onset.

The impact of the Western Ghats on lightning activity on the western coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamra, A. K.; Nair, A. A.

2015-06-01

The effect of the Western Ghats on the lightning activity across the west coast of India around the coastal metropolitan city of Mumbai during the 1998-2012 period is investigated using data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. A land-sea contrast of an order of magnitude in the lightning activity is observed even in a small area across the western coast of India. The shape of a zone of high lightning activity formed almost parallel to the Western Ghats during the onset and withdrawal phases of monsoon, strongly suggests the effect of the Western Ghats in its formation. Seasonal variation of the lightning activity in this area and also in each of its four equal sectors (two each over the Arabian Sea and over land) is bi-annual with one peak each in the onset (May/June) and withdrawal months (September/October) of monsoon and a sharp dip to very low values during the monsoon months (July/August) of maximum seasonal rainfall. The lightning activity in each sector is found to increase over the 1998-2012 period. However, the increase in lightning activity over the sector containing Mumbai is found to be greater during the pre- and post-monsoon periods and smaller during the monsoon period as compared to an identical sector immediately south of it.

Diurnal and long-term variation of instability indices over a tropical region in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Rohit; Basha, Ghouse; Venkat Ratnam, M.

2018-07-01

Climatology of atmospheric instability is studied over Gadanki using high-resolution radiosonde launched daily during April 2006 to April 2017. The diurnal and seasonal variation of instability parameters is discussed in relation with surface meteorological parameters. Seasonal variations depict strong variability in instability which is masked by stronger diurnal variation with descending Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) and Level of Free Convection (LFC) between 11 and 18 IST resulting in high Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values and heavy rainfall. On a seasonal basis, parcel parameters are high during the late monsoon and post-monsoon while the instability parameters like Total Totals index (TT) and Vertical Totals index (VT) show highest values in the pre-monsoon associated with strong convection. LFC and LCL start descending with ascent in Equilibrium Level (EL) before the monsoon onset. However after the onset, atmospheric instability falls sharply as supported by decreasing TT, VT and CAPE with increasing LI. The 11-year long-term variation depicts slightly elevated LFC and LCL and declining EL values indicating a decrease in the instability with a decrease in CAPE and K Index (KI) and increase in Lifted Index (LI) and Convective Inhibition (CIN).

The Low-Level Flow Along the Gulf of California During the North American Monsoon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoni, S.; Stevens, B.

2007-05-01

Six-years (1999-2004) of QuikSCAT near-surface ocean winds are used to study the flow over the northeast Pacific and the Gulf of California (GoC) during the North American Monsoon season. The wind data show that the onset of the summer season is accompanied by a reversal of the flow along the GoC, with the establishment of a mean southerly wind throughout the gulf. This reversal occurs in late spring and precedes the onset of the monsoonal rains. In the heart of the monsoon season, the time-mean flow is found to be composed of periods of enhanced southerly winds associated with gulf surges. The role that gulf surges play in modulating the GoC mean southerly flow is further explored by performing an EOF analysis of the summertime daily wind anomalies. A gulf surge mode emerges from this analysis as the leading EOF, with the corresponding principal component time series interpretable as an objective index for gulf surge occurrence. This index is used as a reference time series for regression analysis, to explore the relationship between gulf surges and precipitation over the core and marginal regions of the monsoon, as well as the manifestation of these transient events in the large-scale circulation. It is found that, although seemingly mesoscale features confined over the GoC, gulf surges are intimately linked to patterns of large-scale variability of the eastern Pacific ITCZ and greatly contribute to the definition of the northward extent of the monsoonal rains.

A distinction between summer rainy season and summer monsoon season over the Central Highlands of Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngo-Thanh, Huong; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Nguyen-Hong, Hanh; Baker, Peter; Phan-Van, Tan

2018-05-01

The daily rainfall data at 13 stations over the Central Highlands (CH) Vietnam were collected for the period 1981-2014. Two different sets of criteria using daily observed rainfall and 850 hPa daily reanalysis wind data were applied to determine the onset (retreat) dates of the summer rainy season (RS) and summer monsoon (SM) season, respectively. Over the study period, the mean RS and SM onset dates were April 20 and May 13 with standard deviations of 17.4 and 17.8 days, respectively. The mean RS and SM retreat dates were November 1 and September 30 with standard deviations of 17.9 and 10.2 days, respectively . The year-to-year variations of the onset dates and the rainfall amount within the RS and SM season were closely linked with the preceding winter and spring sea surface temperature in the central-eastern and western Pacific. It was also found that the onset dates were significantly correlated with the RS and SM rainfall amount.

Pre-Monsoon Drought and Heat Waves in India

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-09-12

In June 2015, news organizations around the world reported on a deadly heat wave in India that killed more than 2,300 people. Prior to the arrival of the summer monsoon in India, weather conditions had been extremely hot and dry. Such conditions can lead to economic and agricultural disaster, human suffering and loss of life. NASA satellite sensors are allowing scientists to characterize pre-monsoon droughts and heat waves and postulate their scientific cause. This figure shows the longitude-time variations, averaged between 21 and 22 degrees North, across the middle of the India subcontinent from mid-April to mid-June. Longitude from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal is represented on the horizontal axis; while the vertical axis shows the timeframe. Rainfall is shown on the left, soil moisture is in the center, and surface air temperature is on the right. For both years (2012 and 2015), the summer monsoon begins in June, with sharp rises in rainfall and soil moisture, and a sharp drop in air temperature. The hottest and driest weeks occurred just before the summer monsoon onsets. Similar dry and hot periods, varying from one to a few weeks, were observed in 2013 and 2014. Soil moisture as an indication of drought as measured by NASA's Aquarius mission was first available in 2012. Rainfall data are from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and surface air temperature is from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The TRMM and Aquarius missions ended in April 2015, before the drought and heat waves. Their data were replaced by those presently available from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to show the drought and heatwave in 2015. Scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, have shown that during the summer monsoon season, moisture is transported into the India Subcontinent from the Arabian Sea and out to the Bay of Bengal. The difference between moisture input from the west and output to the east is deposited as rain over land. The pre-monsoon drought and heat waves coincide with the short period when moisture is advected out to the Bay of Bengal ahead of input from the Arabian Sea. The onset of southwest monsoon winds begins in the Bay of Bengal and sucks moisture out from the subcontinent earlier than the onset in the Arabian Sea. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19939

Reconciling societal and scientific definitions for the monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeve, Mathew; Stephenson, David

2014-05-01

Science defines the monsoon in numerous ways. We can apply these definitions to forecast data, reanalysis data, observations, GCMs and more. In a basic research setting, we hope that this work will advance science and our understanding of the monsoon system. In an applied research setting, we often hope that this work will benefit a specific stakeholder or community. We may want to inform a stakeholder when the monsoon starts, now and in the future. However, what happens if the stakeholders cannot relate to the information because their perceptions do not align with the monsoon definition we use in our analysis? We can resolve this either by teaching the stakeholders or learning from them about how they define the monsoon and when they perceive it to begin. In this work we reconcile different scientific monsoon definitions with the perceptions of agricultural communities in Bangladesh. We have developed a statistical technique that rates different scientific definitions against the people's perceptions of when the monsoon starts and ends. We construct a probability mass function (pmf) around each of the respondent's answers in a questionnaire survey. We can use this pmf to analyze the time series of monsoon onsets and withdrawals from the different scientific definitions. We can thereby quantitatively judge which definition may be most appropriate for a specific applied research setting.

Estimating sowing and harvest dates based on the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathison, Camilla; Deva, Chetan; Falloon, Pete; Challinor, Andrew J.

2018-05-01

Sowing and harvest dates are a significant source of uncertainty within crop models, especially for regions where high-resolution data are unavailable or, as is the case in future climate runs, where no data are available at all. Global datasets are not always able to distinguish when wheat is grown in tropical and subtropical regions, and they are also often coarse in resolution. South Asia is one such region where large spatial variation means higher-resolution datasets are needed, together with greater clarity for the timing of the main wheat growing season. Agriculture in South Asia is closely associated with the dominating climatological phenomenon, the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). Rice and wheat are two highly important crops for the region, with rice being mainly cultivated in the wet season during the summer monsoon months and wheat during the dry winter. We present a method for estimating the crop sowing and harvest dates for rice and wheat using the ASM onset and retreat. The aim of this method is to provide a more accurate alternative to the global datasets of cropping calendars than is currently available and generate more representative inputs for climate impact assessments. We first demonstrate that there is skill in the model prediction of monsoon onset and retreat for two downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) by comparing modelled precipitation with observations. We then calculate and apply sowing and harvest rules for rice and wheat for each simulation to climatological estimates of the monsoon onset and retreat for a present day period. We show that this method reproduces the present day sowing and harvest dates for most parts of India. The application of the method to two future simulations demonstrates that the estimated sowing and harvest dates are successfully modified to ensure that the growing season remains consistent with the internal model climate. The study therefore provides a useful way of modelling potential growing season adaptations to changes in future climate.

The INCOMPASS project field and modelling campaign: Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Andrew; Bhat, Ganapati; Evans, Jonathan; Madan, Ranju; Marsham, John; Martin, Gill; Mitra, Ashis; Mrudula, Gm; Parker, Douglas; Pattnaik, Sandeep; Rajagopal, En; Taylor, Christopher; Tripathi, Sachchida

2017-04-01

The INCOMPASS project uses data from a field and aircraft measurement campaign during the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. Here we will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles from aircraft data. We also include initial results from nested high-resolution modelling experiments of the 2016 monsoon, at a resolution of 4km in comparison with bespoke regional forecasts run throughout the field campaign.

Lifecycle of South America Monsoon System Simulated by the Regional Eta Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, I. F.; Raia, A.; Chou, S. C.; Silveira, V. P.

2017-12-01

The SAMS comprises a set of features over South America that includes the rainy season over large areas of the continent, typical atmospheric circulation and humidity fluxes characteristics and occurrences of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The onset and duration of these characteristics are important to several economic sectors, such as Agriculture and Hydropower. Droughts during the summer season, as the 2014 and 2015 cases, or onset delays can affect these sectors. Predictions of the SAMS onset and duration can contribute to management actions. The Eta Regional model represents well the precipitation difference between summer and winter and the related atmospheric circulation differences over South America. Therefore the objective of this study is to analyze the lifecycle of the SAMS simulated by the Eta model to evaluate first the behaviour compared to observations and to further use as a tool to prediction of onset and duration. There are several methods to analyze the lifecycle of the monsoon and here the criterion is based on vertical integrated zonal moisture flux in the monsoon core, which is located at southern Amazonia. The climate simulation was performed with the Eta model using the HadGEM2_ES model, from CMIP5, as lateral boundary condition. The period of analyses is 1980 to 2005. The model results are compared to ERA-Interim reanalysis and GPCP precipitation dataset. The results show the interannual lifecycles and the average for the whole period, as well as the annual cycle of zonal wind, precipitation, temperature and specific humidity. Spatial maps of humidity convergence, atmospheric circulation at low and high levels indicate the changes during the onset and demise.

Asian Monsoons: Variability, Predictability, and Sensitivity to External Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

In this study, we have addressed the interannual variations of Asian monsoons including both broad-scale and regional monsoon components. Particular attention is devoted to the identities of the South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon. We use CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and NCEP reanalyses to define regional monsoon indices and to depict the various monsoons. Parallel modeling studies have also been carried out to assess the role of boundary forcing and the potential predictability of the monsoons. Each monsoon is characterized by its unique features. While the South Asian monsoon represents a classical monsoon in which anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, the Southeast Asian monsoon symbolizes a "hybrid" monsoon that features multi-cellular meridional circulation over eastern Asia. The broad-scale Asian monsoon links to the basin-wide atmospheric circulation over the Indian-Pacific oceans. Both SST and land surface processes are important for determining the variations of all monsoons. For the broad-scale monsoon, SST anomalies are more important than land surface processes. For regional monsoons, however, land surface processes may become equally important. Both observation and model shows that the broad-scale monsoon is potentially more predictable than regional monsoons, and that the Southeast Asian monsoon may possess higher predictability than the South Asian monsoon.

Asian Monsoons: Variability, Predictability, and Sensitivity to External Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.

1999-01-01

In this study, we have addressed the interannual variations of Asian monsoons including both broad-scale and regional monsoon components. Particular attention is devoted to the identities of the South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon. We use CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and NCEP reanalyses to define regional monsoon indices and to depict the various monsoons. Parallel modeling studies have also been carried out to assess the potential predictability of the broad-scale and regional monsoons. Each monsoon is characterized by its unique features. While the South Asian monsoon represents a classical monsoon in which anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, the Southeast Asian monsoon symbolizes a "hybrid" monsoon that features multi-cellular meridional circulation over eastern Asia. The broad-scale Asian monsoon links to the basin-wide atmospheric circulation over the Indian-Pacific oceans. Both Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and land surface processes are important for determining the variations of all monsoons. For the broad-scale monsoon, SST anomalies are more important than land surface processes. However, for regional monsoons, land surface processes may become equally important. Both observation and model shows that the broad-scale monsoon is potentially more predictable than regional monsoons, and that the Southeast Asian monsoon may possess higher predictability than the South Asian monsoon.

Leaf unfolding of Tibetan alpine meadows captures the arrival of monsoon rainfall

PubMed Central

Li, Ruicheng; Luo, Tianxiang; Mölg, Thomas; Zhao, Jingxue; Li, Xiang; Cui, Xiaoyong; Du, Mingyuan; Tang, Yanhong

2016-01-01

The alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau is the highest and largest pasture in the world, and its formation and distribution are mainly controlled by Indian summer monsoon effects. However, little is known about how monsoon-related cues may trigger spring phenology of the vast alpine vegetation. Based on the 7-year observations with fenced and transplanted experiments across lower to upper limits of Kobresia meadows in the central plateau (4400–5200 m), we found that leaf unfolding dates of dominant sedge and grass species synchronized with monsoon onset, regardless of air temperature. We also found similar patterns in a 22-year data set from the northeast plateau. In the monsoon-related cues for leaf unfolding, the arrival of monsoon rainfall is crucial, while seasonal air temperatures are already continuously above 0 °C. In contrast, the early-emerging cushion species generally leafed out earlier in warmer years regardless of precipitation. Our data provide evidence that leaf unfolding of dominant species in the alpine meadows senses the arrival of monsoon-season rainfall. These findings also provide a basis for interpreting the spatially variable greening responses to warming detected in the world’s highest pasture, and suggest a phenological strategy for avoiding damages of pre-monsoon drought and frost to alpine plants. PMID:26856260

Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. G.; Bhat, G. S.; Evans, J. G.; Madan, R.; Marsham, J. H.; Martin, G.; Mitra, A. K.; Mrudula, G.; Parker, D. J.; Pattnaik, S.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Taylor, C.; Tripathi, S. N.

2016-12-01

INCOMPASS will build on a field and aircraft measurement campaign from the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. This presentation will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles together with detailed information on the timing of monsoon rain. We also outline our future plans for nested modelling of specific case studies of the 2016 monsoon, at resolutions at of 4km, 2km and 1km with explicit convection, as well as test development of a new 100m model over India. Observations will also be combined with further work using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model.

Exacerbation of South Asian monsoon biases in GCMs using when using coupled ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Andrew

2015-04-01

Cold biases during spring in the northern Arabian Sea of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs have previously been shown to limit monsoon rainfall over South Asia during the subsequent summer, by limiting the availability of moisture being advected. The cold biases develop following advection of cold dry air on anomalous northerly low level flow, suggestive of a too-strong winter monsoon in the coupled GCMs. As the same time, these cold biases and the anomalous advection have been related to larger scales by interaction with progression of the midlatitude westerly upper level flow. In this study we compare monsoon characteristics in 20th century historical and AMIP integrations of the CMIP5 multi-model database. We use a period of 1979-2005, common to both the AMIP and historical integrations. While all available observed boundary conditions, including sea-surface temperature (SST), are prescribed in the AMIP integrations, the historical integrations feature ocean-atmosphere models that generate SSTs via air-sea coupled processes. In AMIP experiments, the seasonal mean monsoon rainfall is shown to be systematically larger than in the coupled versions, with an earlier onset date also shown using a variety of circulation and precipitation metrics. In addition, examination of the springtime jet structure suggests that it sits too far south in the coupled models, leading to a delayed formation of the South Asia High over the Tibetan Plateau in summer. Further, we show that anomalous low entropy air is being advected near the surface from the north over the Arabian Sea in spring in the coupled models.

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene - comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2014-05-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene- comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2015-02-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene.

PubMed

Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Holbourn, Ann; Xu, Jian; Opdyke, Bradley; De Deckker, Patrick; Röhl, Ursula; Mudelsee, Manfred

2015-01-06

The evolution of the Australian monsoon in relation to high-latitude temperature fluctuations over the last termination remains highly enigmatic. Here we integrate high-resolution riverine runoff and dust proxy data from X-ray fluorescence scanner measurements in four well-dated sediment cores, forming a NE-SW transect across the Timor Sea. Our records reveal that the development of the Australian monsoon closely followed the deglacial warming history of Antarctica. A minimum in riverine runoff documents dry conditions throughout the region during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (15-12.9 ka). Massive intensification of the monsoon coincided with Southern Hemisphere warming and intensified greenhouse forcing over Australia during the atmospheric CO2 rise at 12.9-10 ka. We relate the earlier onset of the monsoon in the Timor Strait (13.4 ka) to regional changes in landmass exposure during deglacial sea-level rise. A return to dryer conditions occurred between 8.1 and 7.3 ka following the early Holocene runoff maximum.

Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Holbourn, Ann; Xu, Jian; Opdyke, Bradley; de Deckker, Patrick; Röhl, Ursula; Mudelsee, Manfred

2015-01-01

The evolution of the Australian monsoon in relation to high-latitude temperature fluctuations over the last termination remains highly enigmatic. Here we integrate high-resolution riverine runoff and dust proxy data from X-ray fluorescence scanner measurements in four well-dated sediment cores, forming a NE-SW transect across the Timor Sea. Our records reveal that the development of the Australian monsoon closely followed the deglacial warming history of Antarctica. A minimum in riverine runoff documents dry conditions throughout the region during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (15-12.9 ka). Massive intensification of the monsoon coincided with Southern Hemisphere warming and intensified greenhouse forcing over Australia during the atmospheric CO2 rise at 12.9-10 ka. We relate the earlier onset of the monsoon in the Timor Strait (13.4 ka) to regional changes in landmass exposure during deglacial sea-level rise. A return to dryer conditions occurred between 8.1 and 7.3 ka following the early Holocene runoff maximum.

On the Origin of Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

It is a long-held fundamental belief that the basic cause of a monsoon is land-sea thermal contrast on the continental scale. Through general circulation model experiments we demonstrate that this belief should be changed. The Asian and Australian summer monsoon circulations are largely intact in an experiment in which Asia, maritime continent, and Australia are replaced by ocean. It is also shown that the change resulting from such replacement is in general due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. Therefore, land-sea contrast plays only a minor modifying role in Asian and Australian summer monsoons. This also happens to the Central American summer monsoon. However, the same thing cannot be said of the African and South American summer monsoons. In Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a minor role. Our interpretation for the origin of monsoon is that the summer monsoon is the result of ITCZ's (intertropical convergence zones) peak being substantially (more than 10 degrees) away from the equator. The origin of the ITCZ has been previously interpreted by Chao. The circulation around thus located ITCZ, previously interpreted by Chao and Chen through the modified Gill solution and briefly described in this paper, explains the monsoon circulation. The longitudinal location of the ITCZs is determined by the distribution of surface conditions. ITCZ's favor locations of higher SST as in western Pacific and Indian Ocean, or tropical landmass, due to land-sea contrast, as in tropical Africa and South America. Thus, the role of landmass in the origin of monsoon can be replaced by ocean of sufficiently high SST. Furthermore, the ITCZ circulation extends into the tropics in the other hemisphere to give rise to the winter monsoon circulation there. Also through the equivalence of land-sea contrast and higher SST, it is argued that the basic monsoon onset mechanism proposed by Chao is valid for all monsoons.

Impact of East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Air Quality over China: View from space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Chun; Wang, Yuhang; Yang, Qing

2010-05-04

Tropospheric O3 columns retrieved from OMI and MLS measurements, CO columns from MOPITT, and tropospheric O3 and CO concentrations from TES from May to August in 2006 are analyzed using the Regional chEmical and trAnsport Model (REAM) to investigate the impact of the East Asian summer monsoon on the air quality over China. The observed and simulated migrations of O3 and CO are in good agreement, demonstrating that the summer monsoon significantly affects the air quality over southeastern China and this influence extends to central East China from June to July. Enhancements of CO and O3 over southeastern China disappearmore » after the onset of the summer monsoon and re-emerge in August after the monsoon wanes. The pre-monsoon high O3 concentrations over southern China are due to photochemical production from pollutant emissions and the O3 transport from the stratosphere. In the summer monsoon season, the O3 concentrations are relatively low over monsoon-affected regions because of the transport of marine air masses and weak photochemical activity. We find that the monsoon system strongly modulates the pollution problem over a large portion of East China in summer, depending on its strength and tempo-spatial extension. Model results also suggest that transport from the stratosphere and long-range transport from East China and South/Central Asia all make significant contributions to O3 enhancements over West China. Satellite observations provide valuable information for investigating the monsoon impact on air quality, particularly for the regions with limited in situ measurements.« less

Amplification of the solar signal in the summer monsoon rainband in China by synergistic actions of different dynamical responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liang; Wang, Jingsong; Liu, Haiwen; Xiao, Ziniu

2017-02-01

A rainband meridional shift index (RMSI) is defined and used to statistically prove that the East Asian summer monsoon rainband is usually significantly more northward in the early summer of solar maximum years than that of solar minimum years. By applying continuous wavelet transform, cross wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence, it is found that throughout most of the 20th century, the significant decadal oscillations of sunspot number (SSN) and the RMSI are phase-locked and since the 1960s, the SSN has led the RMSI slightly by approximately 1.4 yr. Wind and Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux analysis shows that the decadal meridional oscillation of the June rainband likely results from both a stronger or earlier onset of the tropical monsoon and poleward shift of the subtropical westerly jet in high-solar months of May and June. The dynamical responses of the lower tropical monsoon and the upper subtropical westerly jet to the 11-yr solar cycle transmit bottom-up and top-down solar signals, respectively, and the synergistic actions between the monsoon and the jet likely amplify the solar signal at the northern boundary of the monsoon to some extent.

Wetting and greening Tibetan Plateau in early summer since the late 1970s due to advanced Asian summer monsoon onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenxia; Zhou, Tianjun; Zhang, Lixia

2016-04-01

Known as the "the world water tower", the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the origin of the ten largest rivers in Asia, breeding more than 1.4 billion people, and exerts substantial influences on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems in downstream countries. This region is one of the most susceptible areas around the world to changing climate due to the high elevation. Observed evidence have shown significant climate changes over the TP, including surface air warming and moistening, glaciers shrinking, winds stilling, solar dimming, and atmospheric heat source weakening. However, as an essential part of the hydrological cycle, precipitation changes on the TP remain an ambiguous picture. Changes in precipitation vary largely with different seasons, time periods and climate zones considered. This study shows a robust increase in precipitation amount over the TP in May, when the rainy season starts, over the period 1979-2014 (31% relative to the climatology). The wetting trend is spatially consistent over the south-eastern TP, to which both precipitation frequency and intensity contribute. Circulation trends show that the wetting TP in May is resulted from the advanced onset of Asian summer monsoon, which onsets 1~2 pentads earlier since 1979. It intensified water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to south of the TP in May and local anomalous convection. This relationship is further validated by the significant correlation coefficient (0.47) between the onset dates of Asian summer monsoon (particularly the BOB summer monsoon, 0.68) and precipitation over the south-eastern TP in May. The wetting TP in May has further exerted profound impacts on the hydrological cycle and ecosystem, such as moistening the soil and animating vegetation activities throughout early summer. Both decadal variations of soil moisture (from May to June) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (from May to July) coincide well with that of precipitation over the south-eastern TP, significant at 99% confidence level by Mann-Kendall test. This implies that the increasing precipitation in May is favoring a greening TP throughout early summer, benefitting a more favorable ecological environment in the semi-humid region there.

Probing for suitable climatology to estimate the predictability of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, J.; Chaudhuri, S.; Mukherjee, S.; Chowdhury, A. Roy

2017-10-01

Inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK), India, is investigated using daily temperature; mean sea level pressure; winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa pressure levels; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR); sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically integrated moisture content anomaly with 32 years (1981-2013) observation. The MOK is classified as early, delayed, or normal by considering the mean monsoon onset date over Kerala to be the 1st of June with a standard deviation of 8 days. The objective of the study is to identify the synoptic setup during MOK and comparison with climatology to estimate the predictability of the onset type (early, normal, or delayed) with 5, 10, and 15 days lead time. The study reveals that an enhanced convection observed over the Bay of Bengal during early MOK is found to shift over the Arabian Sea during delayed MOK. An intense high-pressure zone observed over the western south Indian Ocean during early MOK shifts to the east during delayed MOK. Higher tropospheric temperature (TT) over the western Equatorial Ocean during early MOK and lower TT over the Indian subcontinent intensify the land-ocean thermal contrast that leads to early MOK. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea is observed to be warmer during delayed than early MOK. During early MOK, the source of 850 hPa southwesterly wind shifts to the west equatorial zone while a COL region has been found during delayed MOK at that level. The study further reveals that the wind speed anomaly at the 200-hPa pressure level coincides inversely with the anomaly of tropospheric temperature.

A long-term vegetation history of the Mojave-Colorado Desert ecotone at Joshua Tree National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmgren, Camille A.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Rylander, Kate A.

2010-01-01

Thirty-eight dated packrat middens were collected from upper desert (930–1357 m) elevations within Joshua Tree National Park near the ecotone between the Mojave Desert and Colorado Desert, providing a 30 ka record of vegetation change with remarkably even coverage for the last 15 ka. This record indicates that vegetation was relatively stable, which may reflect the lack of invasion by extralocal species during the late glacial and the early establishment and persistence of many desert scrub elements. Many of the species found in the modern vegetation assemblages were present by the early Holocene, as indicated by increasing Sørenson's Similarity Index values. C4 grasses and summer-flowering annuals arrived later at Joshua Tree National Park in the early Holocene, suggesting a delayed onset of warm-season monsoonal precipitation compared to other Sonoran Desert and Chihuahuan Desert localities to the east, where summer rains and C4 grasses persisted through the last glacial–interglacial cycle. This would suggest that contemporary flow of monsoonal moisture into eastern California is secondary to the core processes of the North American Monsoon, which remained intact throughout the late Quaternary. In the Holocene, northward displacement of the jet stream, in both summer and winter, allowed migration of the subtropical ridge as far north as southern Idaho and the advection of monsoonal moisture both westward into eastern California and northward into the southern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau.

Factors controlling the Indian summer monsoon onset in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Izumo, Takeshi

2013-04-01

The observed Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) onset occurs around 30 May and 2 June, with a standard deviation of 8 to 9 days, according to the estimates. The relationship between interannual variability of the ISM onset and SSTs (Sea Surface Temperature) remains controversial. The role of Indian Ocean SSTs remain unclear, some studies have shown a driving role while other suggests a passive relation between Indian Ocean SSTs and ISM. The intrinsic impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is also difficult to estimate from observations alone. Finally, the predictability of the ISM onset remains drastically limited by the inability of both forced and coupled model to reproduce a realistic onset date. In order to measure objectively the ISM onset, different methods have been developed based on rainfall or dynamical indices (Ananthakrishnan and Soman, 1988 ; Wang and Ho 2002 ; Joseph et al. 2006). In the study we use the Tropospheric Temperature Gradient (TTG), which is the difference between the tropospheric temperature in a northern and a southern box in the Indian areas (Xavier et al. 2007). This index measures the dynamical strength of the monsoon and provides a stable and precise onset date consistent with rainfall estimates. In the SINTEX-F2 coupled model, the ISM onset measured with the TTG is delayed of approximately 10 days and is in advance of 6 days in the atmosphere-only (ECHAM) model. The 16 days lag between atmospheric-only and coupled runs suggests a crucial role of the coupling, especially SST biases on the delayed onset. With the help of several sensitivity experiments, this study tries to identify the keys regions influencing the ISM onset. Many studies have shown a strong impact of the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean SST on the ISM onset. Nevertheless, the correction of the SSTs, based on AVHRR, in the tropical Indian Ocean only slightly corrects the delayed onset in the coupled model, which suggests an impact of SST in others regions on the ISM onset. During May and June, the main tropical SST biases in the coupled model are a strong warm bias in the Atlantic Ocean and a warm bias in the tropical Pacific Ocean, except along the equator around 140°W-100°W, where there is a cold tongue bias. The correction of the warm bias in the Atlantic Ocean slightly improves the onset date. Conversely, the correction of SST biases in the tropical and equatorial Pacific Oceans advances the onset date of 12 and 10 days, respectively, compared to the control coupled run. This result suggests that, at least in this model, the ISM onset is mainly control by the Pacific Ocean SSTs. Even if ENSO has an impact on the onset date it does not explain the delay, which is related to the biased SST mean state in the Pacific Ocean.

Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Goswami, B. N.

2017-10-01

Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset, and the annual cycle.

Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasson, Shabeh ul; Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Böhner, Jürgen

2016-11-01

We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961-2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061-2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope - a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) - a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy - RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal hydroclimatology poses some caveats on their ability to represent correctly the climate change signal. Nevertheless, considering the majority-model agreement as a measure of robustness for the qualitative scale projected future changes, we find a slightly delayed onset, and a general increase in the RFA slope and in the extent of precipitation concentration (RE) for MPR. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement suggests an increase in the seasonality of MPR and a less intermittent WPR for all basins and for most of the study domain. The SI-based indicator of change in the monsoonal domain suggests its extension westward over northwest India and Pakistan and northward over China. These findings have serious implications for the food and water security of the region in the future.

The contribution of CEOP data to the understanding and modeling of monsoon systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2005-01-01

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validating models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Similar validation projects in other monsoon regions are being started. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of key components of the convective,and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variability, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the dynamics of aerosol-water cycle interactions in the monsoon region, can be best achieved using the CEOP data and modeling strategy.

A Sequence of Flushing and Drying of Breeding Habitats of Aedes aegypti (L.) Prior to the Low Dengue Season in Singapore

PubMed Central

Seidahmed, Osama M. E.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2016-01-01

In dengue-endemic areas, transmission shows both a seasonal and interannual variability. To investigate how rainfall impacts dengue seasonality in Singapore, we carried out a longitudinal survey in the Geylang neighborhood from August 2014 to August 2015. The survey comprised of twice-weekly random inspections to outdoor breeding habitats and continuous monitoring for positive ones. In addition, observations of rainstorms were collected. Out of 6824 inspected habitats, 67 contained Aedes aegypti, 11 contained Aedes albopictus and 24 contained Culex spp. The main outdoors habitat of Aedes aegypti was storm drains (54/67). We found that 80% of breeding sites in drains (43/54) were lost after intense rainstorms related to the wet phase of the Northeast monsoon (NE) between November 2014 and early January 2015. Subsequently, 95% (41/43) of these flushed drains had dried out during the dry phase of the NE in late January-February 2015. A return in the outdoor breeding of Aedes aegypti was observed after the onset of Southwest monsoon (SW) between May and August 2015. There was also a reduction in productivity of breeding habitats for larvae and pupae after the onset of the NE. In wet equatorial regions like Singapore, rainfall varies with the monsoons. A monsoon-driven sequence of flushing and drying shapes the outdoor seasonal abundance of Aedes aegypti. This finding can be used to optimize vector control strategies and better understand dengue in the context of climate change. PMID:27459322

A Sequence of Flushing and Drying of Breeding Habitats of Aedes aegypti (L.) Prior to the Low Dengue Season in Singapore.

PubMed

Seidahmed, Osama M E; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2016-07-01

In dengue-endemic areas, transmission shows both a seasonal and interannual variability. To investigate how rainfall impacts dengue seasonality in Singapore, we carried out a longitudinal survey in the Geylang neighborhood from August 2014 to August 2015. The survey comprised of twice-weekly random inspections to outdoor breeding habitats and continuous monitoring for positive ones. In addition, observations of rainstorms were collected. Out of 6824 inspected habitats, 67 contained Aedes aegypti, 11 contained Aedes albopictus and 24 contained Culex spp. The main outdoors habitat of Aedes aegypti was storm drains (54/67). We found that 80% of breeding sites in drains (43/54) were lost after intense rainstorms related to the wet phase of the Northeast monsoon (NE) between November 2014 and early January 2015. Subsequently, 95% (41/43) of these flushed drains had dried out during the dry phase of the NE in late January-February 2015. A return in the outdoor breeding of Aedes aegypti was observed after the onset of Southwest monsoon (SW) between May and August 2015. There was also a reduction in productivity of breeding habitats for larvae and pupae after the onset of the NE. In wet equatorial regions like Singapore, rainfall varies with the monsoons. A monsoon-driven sequence of flushing and drying shapes the outdoor seasonal abundance of Aedes aegypti. This finding can be used to optimize vector control strategies and better understand dengue in the context of climate change.

Asian Eocene monsoons as revealed by leaf architectural signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spicer, Robert A.; Yang, Jian; Herman, Alexei B.; Kodrul, Tatiana; Maslova, Natalia; Spicer, Teresa E. V.; Aleksandrova, Galina; Jin, Jianhua

2016-09-01

The onset and development of the Asian monsoon systems is a topic that has attracted considerable research effort but proxy data limitations, coupled with a diversity of definitions and metrics characterizing monsoon phenomena, have generated much debate. Failure of geological proxies to yield metrics capable of distinguishing between rainfall seasonality induced by migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from that attributable to topographically modified seasonal pressure reversals has frustrated attempts to understand mechanisms underpinning monsoon development and dynamics. Here we circumvent the use of such single climate parameter metrics in favor of detecting directly the distinctive attributes of different monsoon regimes encoded in leaf fossils. Leaf form adapts to the prevailing climate, particularly under the extreme seasonal stresses imposed by monsoons, so it is likely that fossil leaves carry a unique signature of past monsoon regimes. Leaf form trait spectra obtained from fossils from Eocene basins in southern China were compared with those seen in modern leaves growing under known climate regimes. The fossil leaf trait spectra, including those derived from previously published fossil floras from northwestern India, were most similar to those found in vegetation exposed to the modern Indonesia-Australia Monsoon (I-AM), which is largely a product of seasonal migrations of the ITCZ. The presence of this distinctive leaf physiognomic signature suggests that although a monsoon climate existed in Eocene time across southern Asia the characteristics of the modern topographically-enhanced South Asia Monsoon had yet to develop. By the Eocene leaves in South Asia had become well adapted to an I-AM type regime across many taxa and points to the existence of a pervasive monsoon climate prior to the Eocene. No fossil trait spectra typical of exposure to the modern East Asia monsoon were seen, suggesting the effects of this system in southern China were a much later development.

Influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperatures over different Indian Ocean domains on the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenning; Yang, Song

2017-11-01

The influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different domains of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the Asian summer monsoon are investigated by conducting a series of numerical experiments using the NCAR CAM4 model. It is found that, to a certain extent, the springtime IO SST anomalies can persist to the summer season. The spring-to-summer IO SST anomalies associated with the IO basin warming mode are strongly linked to the summer climate over Asia, especially the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the East Asian monsoon. Among this connection, the warming of tropical IO plays the most critical role, and the warming of southern IO is important for monsoon variation and prediction prior to the full development of the monsoon. The atmospheric response to IO basin wide warming is similar with that to tropical IO warming. The influence of northern IO warming on the SAM, however, is opposite to the effect of southern IO warming. Meanwhile, the discrepancies between the results from idealized SST forcing simulations and observations, especially for the southern IO, reveal that the dominant role of air-sea interaction in the monsoon-IO coupled system cannot be ignored. Moreover, the springtime northern IO warming seems to favor an early onset or a stronger persistence of the SAM.

The Water Vapor Source and Transport Characteristic of Rainy Seasons in Eastern China Base on Lagrangian Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Jiang, Z.; Liu, Z.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory platform is employed in this studyto simulate trajectories of air parcels in the different rainy seasons in East China from 1961 to 2010,with the purpose of investigating general and specific characteristics of moisture sources and the eventual relationship withprecipitation in each rainy season.The moisture transport andsource-sink characteristics of different rainy seasons have evident differences. The results show that the frontal pre-rainy season is mainly influenced bywinter monsoon system, and the precipitation is strongly affected by water vapor from Pacific Ocean (PO) and East China (EC). Afterthe onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSMS), the moisture from Pacific Ocean decreases and from Indian Ocean monsoon area increases. Afterwards, with the northward of the rain belt, the parcels from Southwest region (South China Sea (SCS), Indian Ocean (IO) andIndo-China Peninsula and Indian Peninsula(IP)) decrease and from North region (EC, Eurasia (EA) and PO) increase. Besides, most of the land areas are water vapor sink region and most of sea areas are water vapor source region. Before the onset of SCSMS, EC and PO are two main water vapor source areas.After the onset of SCSMS, the source from PO decreasesand Indian monsoon area becomes the main vapor source region. IP is the main water vapor sink area for all four rainy seasons.As for moisture circulation characteristics, the results of vertical structure of water vapor transport indicate that the maximum water vapor transport in west and east boundaries is located in mid-troposphere and in south and north boundaries is at low-troposphere. The spatiotemporal analysis of moisture trajectory based onmultivariate empirical orthogonal function (MVEOF) indicates that the first mode has close relationship with the precipitation in North China and PDO pattern; the second mode is closely related with the precipitation in Yangtze-Huaihe river basin and EAP pattern.

The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

The Contribution of CEOP Data to the Understanding and Modeling of Monsoon Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2005-01-01

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validaintg models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of, key components of the convective and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variabillity, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the dynamics of aerosol-water cycle interactions in the monsoon region, can be best achieved using the CEOP data and modeling strategy.

Physiological studies in young Eucalyptus stands in southern India and their use in estimating forest transpiration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, J.M.; Rosier, P.T.W.; Murthy, K.V.

1992-12-31

Stomatal conductance, leaf water potential and leaf area index were measured in adjacent plantations of Eucalyptus camaldulensis and Eucalyptus tereticornis at Puradal, near Shimoga, Karnataka, southern India. The data were collected in a range of climatic conditions during a two year period immediately following plantation establishment. Physiological differences between the two species were small and confined largely to leaf area index. Stomatal conductance was highest in the post-monsoon period and declined to minimum values immediately prior to the onset of the monsoon, with the lowest conductances observed after the plantations had been established for more than one year. Stomatal conductance,more » leaf area index and above-canopy meteorological data were combined in a multi-layer transpiration model and used to calculate hourly values of transpiration from the two species. Rates of transpiration up to 6 mm d{sup {minus}1} were estimated for the post-monsoon period but fell to below 1 mm d{sup {minus}1} prior to the monsoon.« less

Empirical prediction of the onset dates of South China Sea summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

2017-03-01

The onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) signifies the commencement of the wet season over East Asia. Predicting the SCSSM onset date is of significant importance. In this study, we establish two different statistical models, namely the physical-empirical model (PEM) and the spatial-temporal projection model (STPM) to predict the SCSSM onset. The PEM is constructed from the seasonal prediction perspective. Observational diagnoses reveal that the early onset of the SCSSM is preceded by (a) a warming tendency in middle and lower troposphere (850-500 hPa) over central Siberia from January to March, (b) a La Niña-like zonal dipole sea surface temperature pattern over the tropical Pacific in March, and (c) a dipole sea level pressure pattern with negative center in subtropics and positive center over high latitude of Southern Hemisphere in January. The PEM built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated reforecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.84 for the period of 1979-2004, and an independent forecast TCC skill of 0.72 for the period 2005-2014. The STPM is built on the extended-range forecast perspective. Pentad data are used to predict a zonal wind index over the South China Sea region. Similar to PEM, the STPM is constructed using 1979-2004 data. Based on the forecasted zonal wind index, the independent forecast of the SCSSM onset dates achieves a TCC skill of 0.90 for 2005-2014. The STPM provides more detailed information for the intraseasonal evolution during the period of the SCSSM onset (pentad 25-35). The two models proposed herein are expected to facilitate the real-time prediction of the SCSSM onset.

Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, I.; Lau, W.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/ South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-C loud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. PLACE allows for the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1997 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.

Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lau, W.; Jia, Y.; Johnson, D.; Shie, C.-L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, North America and South America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, PLACE allows for the effect A vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1991 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the South China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.

Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, J. C. H.; Kong, W.; Swenson, L. M.

2016-12-01

The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) evolution was previously characterized as a trend towards weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. We argue that this evolution is more accurately characterized as changes in the transition timing and duration of the EASM seasonal stages (Spring, pre Mei-Yu, Mei-Yu, Midsummer), and tied to the north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to Tibet. To this end, we employ atmospheric general circulation model time-slice simulations across the Holocene, and objectively identify the transition timing and duration of the EASM seasonal stages. Compared to the late Holocene, we find an earlier onset of Mei-Yu and an earlier transition from Mei-Yu to Summer in the early-mid Holocene, resulting in a shortened Mei-Yu and prolonged Summer stage. These changes are accompanied by an earlier northward positioning of the westerlies relative to Tibet. Our hypothesis provides a more satisfactory explanation for two key observations of Holocene East Asian climate: the `asynchronous Holocene optimum', and changes to East Asian dustiness. Our results highlight a key difference in the way that the East Asian monsoon dynamically responds to precessional insolation changes compared to the other monsoons. For other monsoon systems, changes to the land-ocean contrast drive changes to monsoon intensity. While this also occurs for the East Asian monsoon, more importantly changes to the meridional position of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau determine the timing of seasonal transitions; a northward shift triggers earlier seasonal rainfall transitions and in particular a shorter Mei-Yu and longer Midsummer stage. By similar reasoning, changes to obliquity also strongly affect East Asian summer monsoon seasonality, with a larger tilt resulting in earlier northward shift of the westerlies.

Evaluating the influence of antecedent soil moisture on variability of the North American Monsoon precipitation in the coupled MM5/VIC modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Chunmei; Leung, Lai R.; Gochis, David

2009-11-29

The influence of antecedent soil moisture on North American monsoon system (NAMS) precipitation variability was explored using the MM5 mesoscale model coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. Sensitivity experiments were performed with extreme wet and dry initial soil moisture conditions for both the 1984 wet monsoon year and the 1989 dry year. The MM5-VIC model reproduced the key features of NAMS in 1984 and 1989 especially over northwestern Mexico. Our modeling results indicate that the land surface has memory of the initial soil wetness prescribed at the onset of the monsoon that persists over most ofmore » the region well into the monsoon season (e.g. until August). However, in contrast to the classical thermal contrast concept, where wetter soils lead to cooler surface temperatures, less land-sea thermal contrast, weaker monsoon circulations and less precipitation, the coupled model consistently demonstrated a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback. Specifically, anomalously wet premonsoon soil moisture always lead to enhanced monsoon precipitation, and the reverse was also true. The surface temperature changes induced by differences in surface energy flux partitioning associated with pre-monsoon soil moisture anomalies changed the surface pressure and consequently the flow field in the coupled model, which in turn changed moisture convergence and, accordingly, precipitation patterns. Both the largescale circulation change and local land-atmospheric interactions in response to premonsoon soil moisture anomalies play important roles in the coupled model’s positive soil moisture monsoon precipitation feedback. However, the former may be sensitive to the strength and location of the thermal anomalies, thus leaving open the possibility of both positive and negative soil moisture precipitation feedbacks.« less

Regional simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations at gray-zone resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xingchao; Pauluis, Olivier M.; Zhang, Fuqing

2018-01-01

Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon by the cloud-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at gray-zone resolution are described in this study, with a particular emphasis on the model ability to capture the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs). Five boreal summers are simulated from 2007 to 2011 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as the lateral boundary forcing data. Our experimental setup relies on a horizontal grid spacing of 9 km to explicitly simulate deep convection without the use of cumulus parameterizations. When compared to simulations with coarser grid spacing (27 km) and using a cumulus scheme, the 9 km simulations reduce the biases in mean precipitation and produce more realistic low-frequency variability associated with MISOs. Results show that the model at the 9 km gray-zone resolution captures the salient features of the summer monsoon. The spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of monsoon rainfall in the WRF simulations verify qualitatively well against observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), with regional maxima located over Western Ghats, central India, Himalaya foothills, and the west coast of Myanmar. The onset, breaks, and withdrawal of the summer monsoon in each year are also realistically captured by the model. The MISO-phase composites of monsoon rainfall, low-level wind, and precipitable water anomalies in the simulations also agree qualitatively with the observations. Both the simulations and observations show a northeastward propagation of the MISOs, with the intensification and weakening of the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea during the active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon.

Response of the Surface Circulation of the Arabian Sea to Monsoonal Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beal, L. M.; Hormann, V.; Lumpkin, R.; Foltz, G. R.

2014-12-01

We use two decades of drifter and satellite data to examine the monthly evolution of the surface circulation of the Arabian Sea, which reverses annually in response to the Indian monsoon winds. Most significantly, we find that in the transition from winter to summer circulations, northward flow appears along the length of the western boundary as early as March or April, one or two months before the onset of the southwest monsoon winds. This reversal is initiated by annual Rossby waves, which in turn are initiated by wind curl forcing during the previous southwest monsoon. These results lead us to speculate that there is an oceanic mechanism through which one monsoon may precondition the next. Previous studies of monsoon circulations with lower temporal resolution have highlighted basin-wide currents and connections that are not found to exist in the monthly fields. In particular, we find that the Northeast Monsoon Current does not reach the western boundary and there is no counter-rotating gyre system during boreal winter. South of the equator, the eastward-flowing South Equatorial Counter Current (SECC) is present year-round, even though equatorial winds are strongly influenced by the monsoons. Semi-annual variability of the SECC is governed by Ekman pumping over the south equatorial gyre (or Seychelles dome) and, surprisingly, it is weakest during the northeast monsoon. This region has important influence on the atmosphere and its link to the monsoons deserves further investigation. The East African Coastal Current feeds into the SECC from the boundary. During the southwest monsoon it overshoots the equator and splits, feeding both northward into the Somali Current and eastward into the SECC after looping back across the equator. This apparent retroflection of the EACC is what was previously known as the southern gyre and is obscured at the surface by strong, locally wind-driven, cross-equatorial Ekman transport. Finally, there is broad, strong eastward flow at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden throughout the southwest monsoon, which is influenced by the curvature and bifurcation of the atmospheric monsoon jet.

Monsoon-Enso Relationships: A New Paradigm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This article is partly a review and partly a new research paper on monsoon-ENSO relationship. The paper begins with a discussion of the basic relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO dating back to the work of Sir Gilbert Walker up to research results in more recent years. Various factors that may affect the monsoon-ENSO, relationship, including regional coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, Eurasian snow cover, land-atmosphere hydrologic feedback, intraseasonal oscillation, biennial variability and inter-decadal variations, are discussed. The extreme complex and highly nonlinear nature of the monsoon-ENSO relationship is stressed. We find that for regional impacts on the monsoon, El Nino and La Nina are far from simply mirror images of each other. These two polarities of ENSO can have strong or no impacts on monsoon anomalies depending on the strength of the intraseasonal oscillations and the phases of the inter-decadal variations. For the Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) as a whole, the ENSO impact is effected through a east-west shift in the Walker Circulation. For rainfall anomalies over specific monsoon areas, regional processes play important roles in addition to the shift in the Walker Circulation. One of the key regional processes identified for the boreal summer monsoon is the anomalous West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA). This regional feature has similar signatures in interannual and intraseasonal time scales and appears to determine whether the monsoon-ENSO relationship is strong or weak in a given year. Another important regional feature includes a rainfall and SST dipole across the Indian Ocean, which may have strong impact on the austral summer monsoon. Results are shown indicating that monsoon surface wind forcings may induce a strong biennial signal in ENSO and that strong monsoon-ENSO coupling may translate into pronounced biennial variability in ENSO. Finally, a new paradigm is proposed for the study of monsoon variability. This paradigm provides a unified framework in which monsoon predictability, the role of regional vs. basin-scale processes, its relationship with different climate subsystems, and causes of secular changes in monsoon-ENSO relationship can be investigated.

Asian Summer Monsoon Anomalies Induced by Aerosol Direct Forcing: The Role of the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Kim, K. M.

2006-01-01

In this paper we present results of a numerical study using the NASA finite-volume GCM to elucidate a plausible mechanism for aerosol impact on the Asian summer monsoon involving interaction with physical processes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the premonsoon season of March April, dusts from the deserts of western China, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the Middle East are transported into and stacked up against the northern and southern slopes of the TP. The absorption of solar radiation by dust heats up the elevated surface air over the slopes. On the southern slopes, the atmospheric heating is reinforced by black carbon from local emission. The heated air rises via dry convection, creating a positive temperature anomaly in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the TP relative to the region to the south. In May through early June in a manner akin to an elevated heat pump , the rising hot air forced by the increasing heating in the upper troposphere, draws in warm and moist air over the Indian subcontinent, setting the stage for the onset of the South Asia summer monsoon. Our results suggest that increased dust loading coupled with black carbon emission from local sources in northern India during late spring may lead to an advance of the rainy periods and subsequently an intensification of the Indian summer monsoon. The enhanced rainfall over India is associated with the development of an aerosol-induced large-scale sea level pressure anomaly pattern, which causes the East Asia (Mei-yu) rain belt to shift northwestward, suppressing rainfall over East Asia and the adjacent oceanic regions.

How much does heat content of the western tropical Pacific Ocean modulate the South China Sea summer monsoon onset in the last four decades?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Junqiao; Hu, Dunxin

2014-07-01

The role of the western tropical Pacific Ocean heat content in the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset is investigated in the present paper, by using atmospheric data from NCEP and ocean subsurface temperature data from Japan Meteorology Agency. It is showed from the result that the heat content (HC) of the upper 400 m layer in the western tropical Pacific (WTP), especially in the region of (130°E-150°E, 0°N-14°N) in the last four decades, is a good predictive indicator for the SCSSM onset. Positive (negative) HC anomalies can induce a strong (weak) convection over the WTP, leading to stronger (weaker) Walker circulation and weaker (stronger) western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the boreal spring. Consequently, the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the tropical Indian Ocean is favorable (unfavorable) for the airflow into the SCS and for an early (late) WNPSH retreat from the SCS and hence for an early (late) SCSSM onset. It is elucidated that the long-term trend of SCSSM onset changes its sign around 1993/94 from decline to rise, which is responding and attributed to the WTP HC trend. During the period of 1971-1993, the WTP HC shows a significant decrease trend. In particular, a significant decline trend is observed in the HC difference between the WTP and western tropical Indian Ocean, which causes an easterly trend in the SCS and strengthened WNPSH trend, leading to a late onset trend of SCSSM. The situation is reverse after 1993/94.

Investigation on the Bay of Bengal branch of summer monsoon during normal and delayed onset over Gangetic West Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Debanjana; Mondal, Paramita; Saha, Poulomi; Chaudhuri, Sutapa

2018-06-01

The regional features of Bay of Bengal (BOB) branch of summer monsoon (SM) are examined to identify the causes of delayed onset over Gangetic West Bengal (GWB) in the years having normal onset over Kerala coast. The normal onset over both GWB and Kerala is designated as Normal-Normal (NN) years, while delayed onset over GWB and normal onset over Kerala is termed Normal-Delayed (ND) years. The temperature gradient (TTg), winds at 850 and 150 hPa pressure levels, sea-surface temperature (SST), outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), low-level moisture convergence, instability, and rainfall rate (RR) are analyzed in this study using National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reanalysis dataset during the period from 1981 to 2015. The result shows that TTg over BOB plays a significant role in controlling the movement of BOB branch of SM. Warm SST is observed to prevail over north BOB during NN years. The divergence at 150 hPa and convergence at 850 hPa pressure levels are found to influence the propagation of BOB branch of SM during both NN and ND years. The winds at 850 hPa level converge over BOB and GWB during NN years, whereas winds converge more over eastern BOB and Indo-Chinese peninsula during ND years. Result depicts abundance of low-level (850-1000 hPa) moisture over eastern BOB and Indo-Chinese peninsula during ND years, whereas moisture is observed to converge over north and north-eastern BOB during NN years. The RR is observed to be slightly higher during NN than ND years. However, it may not be concluded from the analysis that delayed onset over GWB will be responsible for less RR over the study region.

Evolution of multidecadal variability in the West African monsoon during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; McKay, N.

2017-12-01

The West African monsoon system is strongly linked to changes in Atlantic variability on multidecadal to millennial timescales. Understanding the nature of these linkages thus provides important insights into the susceptibility of West African precipitation to past and future changes in Atlantic circulation. Here, we use an annually-resolved record of lamination thickness variations from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana to generate an unprecedented record of changes in the West African monsoon spanning the last deglaciation ( 12.8-24 ka BP) and the latest Holocene (0-2.6 ka BP). Millennial-scale variability in varve thickness is consistent with published data from hydrogen isotopes in leaf waxes, showing a dramatic and sustained shift to drier conditions during HS1, a rapid recovery at the onset of the Bølling-Allerød and a gradual shift towards drier conditions following the end of the African Humid Period. The varve thickness record also indicates the presence of significant multidecadal ( 40- 80 years) West African monsoon variability throughout much of the record, disappearing only during the later portion of HS1 ( 14.8-16 ka BP). Previous studies have linked multidecadal variability in the West African monsoon to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a low frequency mode of North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability that is hypothesized to be controlled by changes in North Atlantic heat transport via the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our reconstruction indicates that this mode of multidecadal variability was active not only throughout the late Holocene but during the Last Glacial Maximum and much of the deglaciation, including the first half of HS1. The later result is unexpected in that it suggests that the AMO remained active even as the Atlantic overturning circulation collapsed and the African monsoon weakened during the initial phase of HS1. The decoupling of multidecadal and millennial scale variability suggests either a complex, time-transgressive Atlantic circulation response to changing conditions during HS1 or that the driver of multidecadal variability resides in some process other than the AMOC.

Latitudinal variation in summer monsoon rainfall over Western Ghat of India and its association with global sea surface temperatures.

PubMed

Revadekar, J V; Varikoden, Hamza; Murumkar, P K; Ahmed, S A

2018-02-01

The Western Ghats (WG) of India are basically north-south oriented mountains having narrow zonal width with a steep rising western face. The summer monsoon winds during June to September passing over the Arabian Sea are obstructed by the WG and thus orographically uplift to produce moderate-to-heavy precipitation over the region. However, it is seen that characteristic features of rainfall distribution during the season vary from north to south. Also its correlation with all-India summer monsoon rainfall increases from south to north. In the present study, an attempt is also made to examine long-term as well as short-term trends and variability in summer monsoon rainfall over different subdivisions of WG using monthly rainfall data for the period 1871-2014. Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka show increase in rainfall from 1871 to 2014 in all individual summer monsoon months. Short-term trend analysis based on 31-year sliding window indicates that the trends are not monotonous, but has epochal behavior. In recent epoch, magnitudes of negative trends are consistently decreasing and have changed its sign to positive during 1985-2014. It has been observed that Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant positive role in rainfall over entire WG in all summer monsoon months, whereas role of Nino regions are asymmetric over WG rainfall. Indian summer monsoon is known for its negative relationship with Nino SST. Negative correlations are also seen for WG rainfall with Nino regions but only during onset and withdrawal phase. During peak monsoon months July and August subdivisions of WG mostly show positive correlation with Nino SST. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interannual Variability of Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) and Asian Summer Monsoon Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, C.; Lau, W. K. M.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL), recently discovered from satellite observations, has drawn much attention on the need to study and better understand processes of atmospheric constituents' transportation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the variability of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). In this paper, based on analysis of 15 years (2001 - 2015) MERRA2 reanalysis data, we have investigated the interaction between the ATAL and monsoon dynamics and aerosol transport processes with respect to the variability of the AMA on interannual and intraseasonal time scales. Here, we present results showing that: (1) during pre- monsoon season, carbonaceous aerosols (CA), dust and carbon monoxide (CO)) accumulate along the southern slope of Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Sichuan Basin of southwestern China. Surface pollutants are lofted up to UTLS by strong vertical convection, advected by the anticyclonic flow within the AMA forming ATAL during peak monsoon season, (2) during strong monsoon years (2001, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015) the AMA peaks later, with stronger heating over TP and stronger ATAL, compared to weak monsoon years (2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013). Enhanced vertical transport was also found over the top of TP during strong monsoon years, in conjunction with an enlarged and northward-shifted AMA, while near surface region was suppressed because of heavy rainout, (3) inspite of stronger precipitation wash out more dust and are transported to Indo-Gangetic Plain, and from the top of the TP to the UTLS, during peak monsoon season due to the stronger westerlies. (4) spectral analysis of aerosol and monsoon winds, shows that the ATAL can be modulated by UTLS transport processes on monsoon intraseasonal oscillations with strong quasi- biweekly time scales during strong monsoon, and strong 20-30 day quasi-periodicity during weak monsoon years.

Sources of errors in the simulation of south Asian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs

DOE PAGES

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-09-19

Accurate simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) is still an unresolved challenge. There has not been a benchmark effort to decipher the origin of undesired yet virtually invariable unsuccessfulness of general circulation models (GCMs) over this region. This study analyzes a large ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs to show that most of the simulation errors in the precipitation distribution and their driving mechanisms are systematic and of similar nature across the GCMs, with biases in meridional differential heating playing a critical role in determining the timing of monsoon onset over land, the magnitude of seasonal precipitation distribution and themore » trajectories of monsoon depressions. Errors in the pre-monsoon heat low over the lower latitudes and atmospheric latent heating over the slopes of Himalayas and Karakoram Range induce significant errors in the atmospheric circulations and meridional differential heating. Lack of timely precipitation further exacerbates such errors by limiting local moisture recycling and latent heating aloft from convection. Most of the summer monsoon errors and their sources are reproducible in the land–atmosphere configuration of a GCM when it is configured at horizontal grid spacing comparable to the CMIP5 GCMs. While an increase in resolution overcomes many modeling challenges, coarse resolution is not necessarily the primary driver in the exhibition of errors over South Asia. Ultimately, these results highlight the importance of previously less well known pre-monsoon mechanisms that critically influence the strength of SAM in the GCMs and highlight the importance of land–atmosphere interactions in the development and maintenance of SAM.« less

Dominant Drivers of GCMs Errors in the Simulation of South Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, Moetasim

2017-04-01

Accurate simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) is a longstanding unresolved problem in climate modeling science. There has not been a benchmark effort to decipher the origin of undesired yet virtually invariable unsuccessfulness of general circulation models (GCMs) over this region. This study analyzes a large ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs to demonstrate that most of the simulation errors in the summer season and their driving mechanisms are systematic and of similar nature across the GCMs, with biases in meridional differential heating playing a critical role in determining the timing of monsoon onset over land, the magnitude of seasonal precipitation distribution and the trajectories of monsoon depressions. Errors in the pre-monsoon heat low over the lower latitudes and atmospheric latent heating over the slopes of Himalayas and Karakoram Range induce significant errors in the atmospheric circulations and meridional differential heating. Lack of timely precipitation over land further exacerbates such errors by limiting local moisture recycling and latent heating aloft from convection. Most of the summer monsoon errors and their sources are reproducible in the land-atmosphere configuration of a GCM when it is configured at horizontal grid spacing comparable to the CMIP5 GCMs. While an increase in resolution overcomes many modeling challenges, coarse resolution is not necessarily the primary driver in the exhibition of errors over South Asia. These results highlight the importance of previously less well known pre-monsoon mechanisms that critically influence the strength of SAM in the GCMs and highlight the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the development and maintenance of SAM.

Sources of errors in the simulation of south Asian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; Touma, Danielle; Ruby Leung, L.

2017-07-01

Accurate simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) is still an unresolved challenge. There has not been a benchmark effort to decipher the origin of undesired yet virtually invariable unsuccessfulness of general circulation models (GCMs) over this region. This study analyzes a large ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs to show that most of the simulation errors in the precipitation distribution and their driving mechanisms are systematic and of similar nature across the GCMs, with biases in meridional differential heating playing a critical role in determining the timing of monsoon onset over land, the magnitude of seasonal precipitation distribution and the trajectories of monsoon depressions. Errors in the pre-monsoon heat low over the lower latitudes and atmospheric latent heating over the slopes of Himalayas and Karakoram Range induce significant errors in the atmospheric circulations and meridional differential heating. Lack of timely precipitation further exacerbates such errors by limiting local moisture recycling and latent heating aloft from convection. Most of the summer monsoon errors and their sources are reproducible in the land-atmosphere configuration of a GCM when it is configured at horizontal grid spacing comparable to the CMIP5 GCMs. While an increase in resolution overcomes many modeling challenges, coarse resolution is not necessarily the primary driver in the exhibition of errors over South Asia. These results highlight the importance of previously less well known pre-monsoon mechanisms that critically influence the strength of SAM in the GCMs and highlight the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the development and maintenance of SAM.

Sources of errors in the simulation of south Asian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui

2016-09-19

Accurate simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) is still an unresolved challenge. There has not been a benchmark effort to decipher the origin of undesired yet virtually invariable unsuccessfulness of general circulation models (GCMs) over this region. This study analyzes a large ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs to show that most of the simulation errors in the precipitation distribution and their driving mechanisms are systematic and of similar nature across the GCMs, with biases in meridional differential heating playing a critical role in determining the timing of monsoon onset over land, the magnitude of seasonal precipitation distribution and themore » trajectories of monsoon depressions. Errors in the pre-monsoon heat low over the lower latitudes and atmospheric latent heating over the slopes of Himalayas and Karakoram Range induce significant errors in the atmospheric circulations and meridional differential heating. Lack of timely precipitation further exacerbates such errors by limiting local moisture recycling and latent heating aloft from convection. Most of the summer monsoon errors and their sources are reproducible in the land–atmosphere configuration of a GCM when it is configured at horizontal grid spacing comparable to the CMIP5 GCMs. While an increase in resolution overcomes many modeling challenges, coarse resolution is not necessarily the primary driver in the exhibition of errors over South Asia. These results highlight the importance of previously less well known pre-monsoon mechanisms that critically influence the strength of SAM in the GCMs and highlight the importance of land–atmosphere interactions in the development and maintenance of SAM.« less

Holocene East Asian Monsoon Variability: Links to Solar and Tropical Pacific Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandasamy, S.; Chen, C. A.; Lou, J.

2006-12-01

Sedimentary geochemical records from subalpine Retreat Lake, subtropical Taiwan, document the unstable East Asian Monsoon (EAM) climate for the last ~10250 calendar years before the present (cal yr B.P.). The proxy records demonstrate cool, glacial conditions with weak EAM between ~10250 and 8640 cal yr B.P., the strongest EAM during the "Holocene optimum" (8640-4500 cal yr B.P.) with an abrupt, decadal onset of postglacial EAM (8640-8600 cal yr B.P.), and relatively dry conditions since 4500 cal yr B.P. Although after 8600 cal yr B.P., EAM strength reduces gradually in response to the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, heat and moisture transport and the development of late Holocene El-Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific appear to corroborate the periods of abrupt monsoon changes. Our proxy records reveal several weak monsoon intervals that correlate to low sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific and cold events in the North Atlantic, suggesting a mechanistic link. Among those, four weak EAM events at 8170, 5400, 4500-2100 and 2000-1600 cal yr B.P. are in phase with the timings of low concentrations of atmospheric methane and periods of reduced North Atlantic Deep Water production as well as the `8.2 ka cold spell' and widespread event of low-latitude cultural collapse. Our EAM records exhibit strong correlations with high- and low-latitude climate and monsoon records; thus, provide robust evidences that the centennial-millennial scale monsoon variability during the Holocene are globally-mediated via sun- ocean-monsoon-North Atlantic linkages.

Assessing regional climate simulations of the last 30 years (1982-2012) over Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khandu; Awange, Joseph L.; Anyah, Richard; Kuhn, Michael; Fukuda, Yoichi

2017-10-01

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River Basin presents a spatially diverse hydrological regime due to it's complex topography and escalating demand for freshwater resources. This presents a big challenge in applying the current state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) for climate change impact studies in the GBM River Basin. In this study, several RCM simulations generated by RegCM4.4 and PRECIS are assessed for their seasonal and interannual variations, onset/withdrawal of the Indian monsoon, and long-term trends in precipitation and temperature from 1982 to 2012. The results indicate that in general, RegCM4.4 and PRECIS simulations appear to reasonably reproduce the mean seasonal distribution of precipitation and temperature across the GBM River Basin, although the two RCMs are integrated over a different domain size. On average, the RegCM4.4 simulations overestimate monsoon precipitation by {˜ }26 and {˜ }5% in the Ganges and Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin, respectively, while PRECIS simulations underestimate (overestimate) the same by {˜ }7% ({˜ }16%). Both RegCM4.4 and PRECIS simulations indicate an intense cold bias (up to 10° C) in the Himalayas, and are generally stronger in the RegCM4.4 simulations. Additionally, they tend to produce high precipitation between April and May in the Ganges (RegCM4.4 simulations) and Brahmaputra-Meghna (PRECIS simulations) River Basins, resulting in early onset of the Indian monsoon in the Ganges River Basin. PRECIS simulations exhibit a delayed monsoon withdrawal in the Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin. Despite large spatial variations in onset and withdrawal periods across the GBM River Basin, the basin-averaged results agree reasonably well with the observed periods. Although global climate model (GCM) driven simulations are generally poor in representing the interannual variability of precipitation and winter temperature variations, they tend to agree well with observed precipitation anomalies when driven by perfect boundary conditions. It is also seen that all GCM driven simulations feature significant positive surface temperature trends consistent with the observed datasets.

Elevated Aerosol Layers and Their Radiative Impact over Kanpur During Monsoon Onset Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarangi, Chandan; Tripathi, S. N.; Mishra, A. K.; Welton, E. J.

2016-01-01

Accurate information about aerosol vertical distribution is needed to reduce uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and its effect on atmospheric dynamics. The present study deals with synergistic analyses of aerosol vertical distribution and aerosol optical depth (AOD) with meteorological variables using multisatellite and ground-based remote sensors over Kanpur in central Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Micro-Pulse Lidar Network-derived aerosol vertical extinction (sigma) profiles are analyzed to quantify the interannual and daytime variations during monsoon onset period (May-June) for 2009-2011. The mean aerosol profile is broadly categorized into two layers viz., a surface layer (SL) extending up to 1.5 km (where sigma decreased exponentially with height) and an elevated aerosol layer (EAL) extending between 1.5 and 5.5 km. The increase in total columnar aerosol loading is associated with relatively higher increase in contribution from EAL loading than that from SL. The mean contributions of EALs are about 60%, 51%, and 50% to total columnar AOD during 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively. We observe distinct parabolic EALs during early morning and late evening but uniformly mixed EALs during midday. The interannual and daytime variations of EALs are mainly influenced by long-range transport and convective capacity of the local emissions, respectively. Radiative flux analysis shows that clear-sky incoming solar radiation at surface is reduced with increase in AOD, which indicates significant cooling at surface. Collocated analysis of atmospheric temperature and aerosol loading reveals that increase in AOD not only resulted in surface dimming but also reduced the temperature (approximately 2-3 C) of lower troposphere (below 3 km altitude). Radiative transfer simulations indicate that the reduction of incoming solar radiation at surface is mainly due to increased absorption by EALs (with increase in total AOD). The observed cooling in lower troposphere in high aerosol loading scenario could be understood as a dynamical feedback of EAL-induced stratification of lower troposphere. Further, the observed radiative effect of EALs increases the stability of the lower troposphere, which could modulate the large-scale atmospheric dynamics during monsoon onset period. These findings encourage follow-up studies on the implication of EALs to the Indian summer monsoon dynamics using numerical models.

Investigation of the "elevated heat pump" hypothesis of the Asian monsoon using satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wonsick, M. M.; Pinker, R. T.; Ma, Y.

2014-08-01

The "elevated heat pump" (EHP) hypothesis has been a topic of intensive research and controversy. It postulates that aerosol-induced anomalous mid- and upper-tropospheric warming in the Himalayan foothills and above the Tibetan Plateau leads to an early onset and intensification of Asian monsoon rainfall. This finding is primarily based on results from a NASA finite-volume general circulation model run with and without radiative forcing from different types of aerosols. In particular, black carbon emissions from sources in northern India and dust from Western China, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Thar Desert, and the Arabian Peninsula drive the modeled anomalous heating. Since the initial discussion of the EHP hypothesis in 2006, the aerosol-monsoon relationship has been investigated using various modeling and observational techniques. The current study takes a novel observational approach to detect signatures of the "elevated heat pump" effect on convection, precipitation, and temperature for contrasting aerosol content years during the period of 2000-2012. The analysis benefits from unique high-resolution convection information inferred from Meteosat-5 observations as available through 2005. Additional data sources include temperature data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and the European Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), aerosol optical depth from the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and aerosol optical properties from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) aerosol reanalysis. Anomalous upper-tropospheric warming and the early onset and intensification of the Indian monsoon were not consistently observed during the years with high loads of absorbing aerosols. Possibly, model assumptions and/or unaccounted semi-direct aerosol effects caused the disagreement between observed and hypothesized behavior.

Time-slice analysis of the Australian summer monsoon during the late Quaternary using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, A. G.; Lynch, A. H.

2006-10-01

We use the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) to investigate the variation in the Australian summer monsoon over the last 55 000 years. A synthesis of palaeoenvironmental observations is used to constrain the model for six time slices: 55, 35, 21, 11, 6 and 0 ka. Both inter-hemispheric forcing and the seasonal timing of local insolation changes play key, and interacting, roles on the evolution and intensity of the monsoon.During the onset to the monsoon, a heat low develops to the west of Australia over the Indian Ocean in all time slices, but with varying strengths. Divergent outflow from Asia converges with the cyclonic flow to bring increased rainfall to northern Australia and the maritime continent. The relative importance of a low pressure pull and the high pressure push varies according to the strength of the pressure anomalies. Only in the middle Holocene is the low pressure pull the dominant forcing mechanism. At 21 ka, the climate shift to colder mean temperatures determines the large-scale dynamics of the monsoon.The general picture that emerges from these results is consistent with available palaeodata but highlights the importance of a broad regional perspective to ascribe the driving mechanisms at different times. Copyright

Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio

2017-04-01

We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961-2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061-2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope — a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) — a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy — RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal hydroclimatology poses some caveats on their ability to represent correctly the climate change signal. Nevertheless, considering the majority-model agreement as a measure of robustness for the qualitative scale projected future changes, we find a slightly delayed onset, and a general increase in the RFA slope and in the extent of precipitation concentration (RE) for MPR. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement suggests an increase in the seasonality of MPR and a less intermittent WPR for all basins and for most of the study domain. The SI-based indicator of change in the monsoonal domain suggests its extension westward over northwest India and Pakistan and northward over China. These findings have serious implications for the food and water security of the region in the future. Reference Ul Hasson, S., Pascale, S., Lucarini, V., & Böhner, J. (2016). Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections. Atmospheric Research, 180, 42-63. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.008

Couplings between the seasonal cycles of surface thermodynamics and radiative fluxes in the semi-arid Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guichard, F.; Kergoat, L.; Mougin, E.; Timouk, F.; Bock, O.; Hiernaux, P.

2009-04-01

A good knowledge of surface fluxes and atmospheric low levels is central to improving our understanding of the West African monsoon. This study provides a quantitative analysis of the peculiar seasonal and diurnal cycles of surface thermodynamics and radiative fluxes encountered in Central Sahel. It is based on a multi-year dataset collected in the Malian Gourma over a sandy soil at 1.5°W-15.3°N (a site referred to as Agoufou) with an automated weather station and a sunphotometer (AERONET), complemented by observations from the AMMA field campaign. The seasonal cycle of this Tropical region is characterized by a broad maximum of temperature in May, following the first minimum of the solar zenith angle by a few weeks, when Agoufou lies within the West African Heat-Low, and a late summer maximum of equivalent potential temperature within the core of the monsoon season, around the second yearly maximum of solar zenith angle, as the temperature reaches its Summer minimum. More broadly, subtle balances between surface air temperature and moisture fields are found on a range of scales. For instance, during the monsoon, apart from August, their opposite daytime fluctuations (warming, drying) lead to an almost flat diurnal cycle of the equivalent potential temperature at the surface. This feature stands out in contrast to other more humid continental regions. Here, the strong dynamics associated with the transition from a drier hot Spring to a brief cooler wet tropical Summer climate involves very large transformations of the diurnal cycles. The Summer increase of surface net radiation, Rnet, is also strong; typically 10-day mean Rnet reaches about 5 times its Winter minimum (~30 W.m-2) in August (~150 W.m-2). A major feature revealed by observations is that this increase is mostly driven by modifications of the surface upwelling fluxes shaped by rainfall events and vegetation phenology (surface cooling and darkening), while the direct impact of atmospheric changes on the total incoming radiation is limited to shorter time scales in Summer over this Central Sahelian location. However, observations also reveal astonishing radiative signatures of the monsoon on the surface incoming radiative flux. The incoming longwave flux does not reach its maximum during the monsoon season when the atmosphere is the most cloudy and humid, but earlier, prior to the onset of rainfall, as the dry and warmer atmosphere suddenly becomes moist. This feature points to the significance of the atmospheric cooling during the monsoon season and of the aerosol amounts in Spring. It also reveals that prior to the rainfall onset, the monsoon flow plays a major role on the diurnal cycle of the low-level temperature, due to its radiative properties. Conversely, the incoming solar radiation at the surface increases slightly from late Spring to the core monsoon season even though the atmosphere becomes moister and cloudier; this again involves the high aerosol optical thickness prevailing in late Spring and early Summer against a weaker shortwave forcing by monsoon clouds. The climatological combination of thermodynamic and radiative variations taking place during the monsoon eventually leads to a positive correlation between the equivalent potential temperature and Rnet. This correlation is, in turn, broadly consistent with an overall positive soil moisture rainfall feedback at this scale. Beyond these Sahelian-specific features, and in agreement with some previous studies, strong links are found between the atmospheric humidity and the net longwave flux, LWnet at the surface all year long, even across the much lower humidity ranges encountered in this region. They point to, and locally quantify the major control of water vapour and water-related processes on the surface-atmosphere thermal coupling as measured by LWnet. Namely, they are found to be more tightly coupled (LWnet closer to 0) when the atmosphere is moister and cloudier. Observational results such as presented here provide valuable ground truth for assessing models over a continental area displaying a challenging variety of surface-atmosphere regimes throughout the year, from a desert-like to a rainy tropical-like climate during the core of the monsoon. Indeed, the mechanisms emphasized by these data do not all comply to existing conceptual schemes.

Dry or wet in East Asia during North Atlantic cooling? New perspectives from multiproxy climate records and coupled model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Griffiths, M. L.; Wu, S.; Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Atwood, A. R.; Cheng, H.; Huang, J.; Xie, S.

2017-12-01

Chinese speleothem δ18Oc records have revealed that the Asian summer monsoon underwent pronounced millennial-scale variability during the last deglaciation, yet there is still debate as to what the δ18Oc signals represent. Traditionally, these δ18Oc records were interpreted as a proxy for regional rainfall variability via the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), however, recent isotope-enabled model simulations have suggested that precipitation δ18O over central China is more a reflection of rainfall in the upstream region of the Indian monsoon. Therefore, despite the increased number of speleothem records emerging from the EASM region, we still lack a robust understanding of how local monsoon rainfall variability fluctuated in central China during the last deglaciation. To address this, here we present two new multiproxy speleothem records from Haozhu Cave (HZ), central China, during the deglaciation. HZ δ18Oc time series largely parallel those from other distal cave sites in China and India, suggesting that the oxygen isotopes are indeed dominated by upstream rainout. To inspect the local hydrology, we also examined Sr-Mg-Ba/Ca ratios and d13C. Interestingly, results show that during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas, the d13C and trace elements decrease significantly, which we interpret to reflect higher cave recharge. Thus, despite a weakened Indian monsoon during these cooling events (inferred from the δ18Oc), our results suggest that central China was in fact wetter. To test this hypothesis, we examined past rainfall variability in China using CESM1.0.5 imposed with 1Sv of North Atlantic (NA) fresh water forcing. Similar to the proxies, results from these simulations demonstrate that south-central China was wetter following NA cooling, whilst northern China was drier. This `dipole' pattern can best be explained by a seasonally-lagged onset of the mei-yu stage of monsoon evolution. A later onset of mei-yu to midsummer during NA cooling would have resulted in a shorter midsummer stage, leaving south-central China wet at the expense of dry conditions to the north. Our proxy and model results thus support a recent hypothesis, that paleoclimate changes over East Asia reflect the timing and duration of its intraseasonal stages, modulated by the position of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau.

Post-Fire Evapotranspiration and Net Ecosystem Exchange over A Semi-Arid Grassland in Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, P.; Meyers, T. P.; Heuer, M.

2015-12-01

The seasonal and interannual variability of evapotranspiration (E) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) following a fire disturbance over a semi -arid grassland located on the Audubon Research Ranch in south western Arizona (31.5907N, 110.5104W, elevation 1496 m), USA, and their relationships to environmental variables were examined using continuous measurements of water vapour and CO2 fluxes made from first week of June 2002 to 2009 using the eddy covariance technique. The research ranch was established in 1969 as an ecological research preserve and it is now one of the largest ungrazed, privately managed grassland sites in Arizona. A wild fire occurred in April - May 2002, and burned all the standing vegetation and litter on in research ranch (~38,000 acres) including 500 acres of grassland. The mean annual temperature and precipitation (P) at this site were ~16 deg C and ~370 mm, respectively. More than 60% of the annual P was received during the North American monsoon period (July-September) with the lowest annual P in the drought years of 2004 and 2009. Drastic changes in albedo, vegetation growth and evapotranspiration occurred following the onset of the monsoon season in July. The ecosystem was mostly a carbon sink during monsoon period. Daily total evapotranspiration during July-August increased from 2 mm d-1 in 2002 to >3 mm d-1 in 2007. The mean annual E over the site was during 2003 -2009 was 352 ±75 mm. With the onset of monsoon the ecosystem turned to carbon sink in 2002, with daily total net ecosystem exchange (NEE) varying up to ~<-2 g C m-2, by mid-July to August 2002. It was followed by one of the driest monsoon period on the record (2003) with <50% of normal July-September P. Because of this, the recovery of the ecosystem was delayed. During 2002-2009, the ecosystem was mostly a carbon source except in 2006 an year with high growing season Normalized-difference vegetation index, longest monsoon growing season and the highest annual and July-September P. The interannual variations in annual E and NEE were mostly controlled by annual P, July-September NDVI and growing season length during 2002-2009.

An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.

1999-01-01

Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

Understanding the role of moisture transport on the dry bias in indian monsoon simulations by CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahana, A. S.; Pathak, Amey; Roxy, M. K.; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-02-01

We analyse the bias present in the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), as simulated by Climate Forecast System Model 2 (CFSv2), the operational model used for monsoon forecasts in India. In the simulations, the precipitation intensity is redistributed within the ITCZ band with southward shifts of precipitation maxima. We observe weakening of maximum intensity of precipitation over the region between 20°N and 14°N. In the simulations by CFSv2, there exists two rain bands: the northern one located slightly southward compared to reanalysis dataset and the southern one over the equator with intensified precipitation. This results in dry bias over land and wet bias over the ocean. We use a Dynamic Recycling Model, based on Lagrangian approach, to investigate the role of various moisture sources in generating these biases. We find that, the dry bias during June exists due to the delayed monsoon onset and reduced moisture flow from the Arabian Sea. As the monsoon progresses, deficiency in the simulated contributions from South Indian Ocean becomes the key source of bias. The reduced supply of moisture from oceanic sources is primarily attributed to the weaker northward transport of moisture flux from the Southern Ocean, associated with a weaker southward energy flux. Inefficiency of the model in simulating the heating in Tibetan plateau during the pre-monsoon period leads to this reduced cross equatorial energy flow. We also find that, towards the end of monsoon season, moisture contributions from land sources namely, Ganga Basin and North-Eastern forests become significant and underestimations of the same in the simulations by CFSv2 result into biases over Central and Eastern India.

High-Resolution Modeling of the Predictability of Convective Systems, and Influences by Absorbing Aerosols Over Northern India and the Himalayas Foothills During Boreal Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K.-M.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn; Tan, Qian; Chin, Mian; Matsui, Toshihisa; Bian, Huisheng

2011-01-01

The Himalayas foothills region (HFR) is an important component of the South Asian monsoon. To the south, the HFR borders the fertile, populous, and heavily polluted Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). To the north, it rises to great height (approx. 4-5 km) to the Tibetan Plateau over a distance of less than 100 km. The HFR itself consists of complex mountainous terrain, with strong orographic forcing for precipitation. During the late spring and early summer, dust aerosol from the Thar and Middle East deserts , as well as moisture from the Arabian Sea were transported to the western part of the western part of the IGP and foothills spurs pre-monsoon severe thunderstorm over the region. During the monsoon season (mid June -August) convection from the Bay of Bengal, spread along the foothills northwestward to northern Pakistan. Recent climate model studies and preliminary observations have indicted not only the importance of dynamical forcing of precipitation in the HFR, but also possible strong impacts by the dense aerosols, from both local sources, and remote transport, that blanket the IGP from late spring up to the onset of the monsoon in June, and during monsoon breaks in July. In this work, we use the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (Nu-WRF) model to study the predictability ( 1-7 days) South Asian monsoon rainfall system. Results of 7 -day forecast experiments using an embedded domain of 27 km and 9 km resolution were conducted for the period June 11- July 15, 2008, with and without aerosol forcing are carried out to assess the intrinsic predictability of rainfall over the HFR, and possible impacts by aerosol direct effect, and possible connection of large-scale South Asian monsoon system.

Long- Range Forecasting Of The Onset Of Southwest Monsoon Winds And Waves Near The Horn Of Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

SUMMARY OF CLIMATE ANALYSIS AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST METHODOLOGY Prior theses from Heidt (2006) and Lemke (2010) used methods similar to ours and to...6 II. DATA AND METHODS .......................................................................................7 A...9 D. ANALYSIS AND FORECAST METHODS .........................................10 1. Predictand Selection

The role of local heating in the 2015 Indian heat wave

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examina...

Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Drought Outlook

Science.gov Websites

transitions to summer, however, these dry incipient conditions leave this region vulnerable to flash drought development should an extended period of hot, dry weather occur. Across the West, drought conditions persisted climatology. Despite the anticipated onset of monsoon thunderstorms over the Southwest during mid-summer, dry

Simulation of 1986 South China Sea Monsoon with a Regional Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W. -K.; Lau, W. K.-M.; Jia, Y.; Juang, H.; Wetzel, P.; Qian, J.; Chen, C.

1999-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) project is being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the IndoChina/South China Sea (SCS) region. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. The original MM5 model (without PLACE) includes the option for either a simple slab soil model or a five-layer soil model (MRF) in which the soil moisture availability evolves over time. However, the MM5 soil models do not include the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are precluded. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. In addition, the Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system has been: (1) coupled to the Goddard Ice Microphysical scheme; (2) coupled to a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme; (3) modified to ensure cloud budget balance; and (4) incorporated initialization with the Goddard EOS data sets at NASA/Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The improved MM5 with two nested domains (60 and 20 km horizontal resolution) was used to simulate convective activity over IndoChina and the South China Sea, during the monsoon season, from May 6 to May 20, 1986. The model results captured several dominant observed features, such as twin cyclones, a depression system over the Bay of Bengal, strong south-westerly winds over IndoChina before and during the on-set of convection over the SCS, and a vortex over the SCS. Two additional MM5 runs with different land process models, Blackadar and MRF, were performed, and their results are compared to the run with PLACE. The preliminary results indicate that the MM5 results using PLACE and Blackadar are in very good agreement, but the results using MRF do not contain the south-westerly wind over IndoChina prior to the on-set of convection over the SCS.

Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Rohit; Chakraborty, Arindam; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

2018-01-01

The aim of this paper is to identify relative roles of different land-atmospheric conditions, apart from sea surface temperature (SST), in determining early vs. late summer monsoon intensity over India in a high resolution general circulation model (GCM). We find that in its early phase (June-July; JJ), pre-monsoon land-atmospheric processes play major role to modulate the precipitation over Indian region. These effects of pre-monsoon conditions decrease substantially during its later phase (August-September; AS) for which the interannual variation is mainly governed by the low frequency northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations. This intraseasonal variability which is related to mean vertical wind shear has a significant role during the early phase of monsoon as well. Further, using multiple linear regression, we show that interannual variation of early and late monsoon rainfall over India is best explained when all these land-atmospheric parameters are taken together. Our study delineates the relative role of different processes affecting early versus later summer monsoon rainfall over India that can be used for determining its subseasonal predictability.

The Preboreal-like Asian monsoon climate in the early last interglacial period recorded from the Dark Cave, Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xiuyang; He, Yaoqi; Wang, Xiaoyan; Sun, Xiaoshuang; Hong, Hui; Liu, Juan; Yu, Tsai-Luen; Li, Zhizhong; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2017-08-01

Transitions of glacial-interglacial cycles are critical periods for Quaternary climate shifts. Here, we present new, decadal resolution Asian summer monsoon (ASM) record from three stalagmites obtained from the Dark Cave in southwestern China over 130-114 thousand years ago (ka, before CE 1950). Chronology was anchored by 28 230Th dates with typical uncertainties of ±0.3-1.0 kyr, allowing an assessment of timing and transition of climate changes during the onset and end of the last interglacial. An agreement between this new and previous stalagmite δ18O records supports that summer insolation predominates orbital-scale ASM evolution. A 2-3 kyr-long gradually increasing ASM period, analogous to the classical Preboreal episode in the early Holocene, follows the termination of a weak monsoon interval at 129.0 ± 0.8 ka. This finding suggests a strong influence of high-latitude ice-sheet dynamics on Asian monsoonal conditions during the early interglacial period. An abrupt end of the marine isotope stage 5e at 118.8 ± 0.6 ka was probably caused by the internal climate system threshold effects.

Microwave radiometer observations of interannual water vapor variability and vertical structure over a tropical station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renju, R.; Suresh Raju, C.; Mathew, Nizy; Antony, Tinu; Krishna Moorthy, K.

2015-05-01

The intraseasonal and interannual characteristics and the vertical distribution of atmospheric water vapor from the tropical coastal station Thiruvananthapuram (TVM) located in the southwestern region of the Indian Peninsula are examined from continuous multiyear, multifrequency microwave radiometer profiler (MRP) measurements. The accuracy of MRP for precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimation, particularly during a prolonged monsoon period, has been demonstrated by comparing with the PWV derived from collocated GPS measurements based on regression model between PWV and GPS wet delay component which has been developed for TVM station. Large diurnal and intraseasonal variations of PWV are observed during winter and premonsoon seasons. There is large interannual PWV variability during premonsoon, owing to frequent local convection and summer thunderstorms. During monsoon period, low interannual PWV variability is attributed to the persistent wind from the ocean which brings moisture to this coastal station. However, significant interannual humidity variability is seen at 2 to 6 km altitude, which is linked to the monsoon strength over the station. Prior to monsoon onset over the station, the specific humidity increases up to 5-10 g/kg in the altitude region above 5 km and remains consistently so throughout the active spells.

Characterizing diurnal and seasonal cycles in monsoon systems from TRMM and CEOP observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2006-01-01

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2deg x 2.5deg latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Characterizing Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles in Monsoon Systems from TRMM and CEOP Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2007-01-01

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Study (CIMS) is one of the two main science drivers of CEOP that aims to (a) provide better understanding of fundamental physical processes in monsoon regions around the world, and (b) demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. As the data collection phase for EOP-3 and EOP-4 is being completed, two full annual cycles (2003-2004) of research-quality data sets from satellites, reference sites, and model output location time series (MOLTS) have been processed and made available for data analyses and model validation studies. This article presents preliminary results of a CIMS study aimed at the characterization and intercomparison of all major monsoon systems. The CEOP reference site data proved its value in such exercises by being a powerful tool to cross-validate the TRMM data, and to intercompare with multi-model results in ongoing work. We use 6 years (1998-2003) of pentad CEOP/TRMM data with 2 deg x 2.5 deg. latitude-longitude grid, over the domain of interests to define the monsoon climatological diurnal and annual cycles for the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), the South Asian Monsoon (SAM), the West Africa Monsoon (WAM), the North America/Mexican Monsoon (NAM), the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Australian Monsoon (AUM). As noted, the TRMM data used in the study were cross-validated using CEOP reference site data, where applicable. Results show that the observed diurnal cycle of rain peaked around late afternoon over monsoon land, and early morning over the oceans. The diurnal cycles in models tend to peak 2-3 hours earlier than observed. The seasonal cycles of the EAM and SAM show the strongest continentality, i.e, strong control by continental processes away from the ITCZ. The WAM, and the AUM shows the less continentality, i.e, strong control by the oceanic ITCZ.

Discriminating the biophysical impacts of coastal upwelling and mud banks along the southwest coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnan, C.; Jyothibabu, R.; Arunpandi, N.; Jagadeesan, L.; Muraleedharan, K. R.; Pratihari, A. K.; Balachandran, K. K.; Naqvi, S. W. A.

2017-08-01

Coastal upwelling and mud banks are two oceanographic processes concurrently operating along certain stretches of the southwest (Kerala) coast of India during the Southwest Monsoon period (June-September), facilitating significant enhancement in plankton biomass. Mud banks have scientific and societal attention from time immemorial, predominantly due to the large fisheries associated with them. In this paper, for the first time, the specific biophysical roles of these oceanographic processes have been discriminated, based on a focused 18 weekly/fortnightly time-series study (April to September 2014) in a mud bank-upwelling area (off Alappuzha, southwest coast of India). In conjunction with standard hydrographical and satellite remote sensing data, we utilised a FlowCAM to track the biophysical linkage in terms of plankton composition abundance and size structure at three locations (M1, M2 and M3) in the study area. During the Pre-Southwest Monsoon (April-May), the entire study area was warmer with low nitrate concentration in the surface waters, which caused lower biomass of autotrophs compared to the Southwest Monsoon (June-September). By the onset of the Southwest Monsoon (June), drastic hydrographical transformations took place in the study domain due to the Coastal upwelling, reflected as the surfacing of significantly cool, high nutrient and hypoxic waters. Concurrently, mud bank formed at location M2 due to the presence of relatively high-suspended sediments in the region, creating a localised calm environment conducive for fishing activities. In response to the hydrographical transformations in the entire study area during the Southwest Monsoon, the autotrophic plankton biomass and size structure experienced significant change. The micro-autotrophs biomass that was low during the Pre-Southwest Monsoon (av. 0.33 ± 0.2 mgC L- 1 at surface and av. 0.07 ± 0.04 mgC L- 1 at subsurface) noticeably increased during the Southwest Monsoon (av. 1.6 ± 0.4 mgC L- 1 at surface and av. 1.3 ± 0.2 mgC L- 1 at subsurface). The seasonal mean bio-volume of micro-autotrophs followed the same pattern in all three locations with the dominance of smaller individuals during the Pre-Southwest Monsoon (av. 55 ± 4.4 × 103 μm3 individual- 1 at surface and av. 67.1 ± 38.4 × 103 μm3 individual- 1 at subsurface). Relatively large phytoplankton dominated during the Southwest Monsoon (av. 77.3 ± 5.5 × 103 μm3 individual- 1 at surface and av. 90.3 ± 4.9 × 103 μm3 individual- 1 at subsurface). Similar spatial change in the plankton composition, biomass and size structure in all three locations suggested the dominant role of coastal upwelling, and not the mud bank, in shaping the dominant autotrophic plankton in the study domain. The nutrient enrichment in the region associated with the coastal upwelling facilitated the predominance of a classical short food chain capable of supporting large fish stocks. In addition to relatively calm mud bank, the hypoxic, cool upwelled waters that existed in the subsurface induce the fish stock to concentrate in the surface waters, making the relatively calm mud bank and adjoining areas a rich fishing ground for the native fishers.

Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Liang; Turner, Andrew; Highwood, Eleanor

2016-04-01

The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, in which rainfall increases over northern India as a result of the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the pre-monsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

Paleoclimate and Asian monsoon variability inferred from n-alkanes and their stable isotopes at lake Donggi Cona, NE Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saini, Jeetendra; Guenther, Franziska; Mäusbacher, Roland; Gleixner, Gerd

2015-04-01

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most extensive and sensitive region of elevated topography affecting global climate. The interplay between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies greatly influences the lake systems at the Tibetan Plateau. Despite a considerable number of research efforts in last decade, possible environmental reactions to change in monsoon dynamics are still not well understood. Here we present results from a sediment core of lake Donggi Cona, which dates back to late glacial period. Distinct organic geochemical proxies and stable isotopes are used to study the paleoenvironmental and hydrological changes in late glacial and Holocene period. Sedimentary n-alkanes of lake Donggi Cona are used as a proxy for paleoclimatic and monsoonal reconstruction. The hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopes of n-alkanes are used as proxy for hydrological and phytoplankton productivity, respectively . Qualitative and quantitative analysis were performed for n-alkanes over the sediment core. δD proxy for sedimentary n-alkanes is used to infer lake water and rainfall signal. δD of (n-alkane C23) records the signal of the lake water, whereas δD of (n-alkane C29) record the precipitation signal, hence act as an appropriate proxy to track Asian monsoon. Long chain n-alkanes dominate over the sediment core while unsaturated mid chain n-alkenes have high abundance in some samples. From 18.4-13.8 cal ka BP, sample shows low organic productivity due to cold and arid climate. After 13.8-11.8 cal ka BP, slight increase in phytoplankton productivity indicate onset of weaker monsoon. From 11.8-6.8 cal ka BP, high content of organic matter indicates rise in productivity and strong monsoon with high inflow. After 6.8 cal ka BP, decrease in phytoplankton productivity indicating cooler climate and show terrestrial signal. Our results provide new insight into the variability of east Asian monsoon and changes in phytoplankton productivity for last 18.4 ka. Keywords: n-alkanes; n-alkane C23; n-alkane C29; hydrogen isotopes (δD); carbon isotopes (δ13C); east Asian monsoon; precipitation;

Community ecology, climate change and ecohydrology in desert grassland and shrubland

Treesearch

Mathew Daniel Petrie

2014-01-01

This dissertation explores the climate, ecology and hydrology of Chihuahuan Desert ecosystems in the context of global climate change. In coming decades, the southwestern United States is projected to experience greater temperature-driven aridity, possible small decreases in annual precipitation, and a later onset of summer monsoon rainfall. These changes may have...

Temporal evolution of the spatial covariability of rainfall in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciemer, Catrin; Boers, Niklas; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja

2017-10-01

The climate of South America exhibits pronounced differences between rainy and dry seasons, associated with specific synoptic features such as the establishment of the South Atlantic convergence zone. Here, we analyze the spatiotemporal correlation structure and in particular teleconnections of daily rainfall associated with these features by means of evolving complex networks. A modification of Pearson's correlation coefficient is introduced to handle the intricate statistical properties of daily rainfall. On this basis, spatial correlation networks are constructed, and new appropriate network measures are introduced in order to analyze the temporal evolution of the networks' characteristics. We particularly focus on the identification of coherent areas of similar rainfall patterns and previously unknown teleconnection structures between remote areas. We show that the monsoon onset is characterized by an abrupt transition from erratic to organized regional connectivity that prevails during the monsoon season, while only the onset times themselves exhibit anomalous large-scale organization of teleconnections. Furthermore, we reveal that the two mega-droughts in the Amazon basin were already announced in the previous year by an anomalous behavior of the connectivity structure.

Systematic errors in Monsoon simulation: importance of the equatorial Indian Ocean processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annamalai, H.; Taguchi, B.; McCreary, J. P., Jr.; Nagura, M.; Miyama, T.

2015-12-01

H. Annamalai1, B. Taguchi2, J.P. McCreary1, J. Hafner1, M. Nagura2, and T. Miyama2 International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, USA Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Japan In climate models, simulating the monsoon precipitation climatology remains a grand challenge. Compared to CMIP3, the multi-model-mean (MMM) errors for Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) precipitation climatology in CMIP5, relative to GPCP observations, have shown little improvement. One of the implications is that uncertainties in the future projections of time-mean changes to AAM rainfall may not have reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Despite dedicated efforts by the modeling community, the progress in monsoon modeling is rather slow. This leads us to wonder: Has the scientific community reached a "plateau" in modeling mean monsoon precipitation? Our focus here is to better understanding of the coupled air-sea interactions, and moist processes that govern the precipitation characteristics over the tropical Indian Ocean where large-scale errors persist. A series idealized coupled model experiments are performed to test the hypothesis that errors in the coupled processes along the equatorial Indian Ocean during inter-monsoon seasons could potentially influence systematic errors during the monsoon season. Moist static energy budget diagnostics has been performed to identify the leading moist and radiative processes that account for the large-scale errors in the simulated precipitation. As a way forward, we propose three coordinated efforts, and they are: (i) idealized coupled model experiments; (ii) process-based diagnostics and (iii) direct observations to constrain model physics. We will argue that a systematic and coordinated approach in the identification of the various interactive processes that shape the precipitation basic state needs to be carried out, and high-quality observations over the data sparse monsoon region are needed to validate models and further improve model physics.

Wet deposition at the base of Mt Everest: Seasonal evolution of the chemistry and isotopic composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balestrini, Raffaella; Delconte, Carlo A.; Sacchi, Elisa; Wilson, Alana M.; Williams, Mark W.; Cristofanelli, Paolo; Putero, Davide

2016-12-01

The chemistry of wet deposition was investigated during 2012-2014 at the Pyramid International Laboratory in the Upper Khumbu Valley, Nepal, at 5050 m a.s.l., within the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) programme. The main hydro-chemical species and stable isotopes of the water molecule were determined for monsoon rain (July-September) and snow samples (October-June). To evaluate the synoptic-scale variability of air masses reaching the measurement site, 5 day back-trajectories were computed for the sampling period. Ion concentrations in precipitation during the monsoon were low suggesting that they represent global regional background concentrations. The associations between ions suggested that the principal sources of chemical species were marine aerosols, rock and soil dust, and fossil fuel combustion. Most chemical species exhibited a pattern during the monsoon, with maxima at the beginning and at the end of the season, partially correlated with the precipitation amount. Snow samples exhibited significantly higher concentrations of chemical species, compared to the monsoon rainfall observations. Particularly during 2013, elevated concentrations of NO3-, SO42- and NH4+ were measured in the first winter snow event, and in May at the end of the pre-monsoon season. The analysis of large-scale circulation and wind regimes as well as atmospheric composition observations in the region indicates the transport of polluted air masses from the Himalayan foothills and Indian sub-continent up to the Himalaya region. During the summer monsoon onset period, the greater values of pollutants can be attributed to air-mass transport from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the Indo-Gangetic plains. Isotopic data confirm that during the monsoon period, precipitation occurred from water vapor that originated from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal; by contrast during the non-monsoon period, an isotopic signature of more continental origin appeared, indicating that the higher recorded NO3- and SO42- concentrations could be ascribed to a change in air circulation patterns. A comparison of recent monsoon deposition chemistry with data from the 1990's shows similar levels of contaminants in the rainfall. However, non-monsoon deposition can be significant, as it largely contributed to the ion wet deposition fluxes for all analyzed species in 2013.

Centennial- to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variations in the upper Hanjiang River region, China over the past 6650 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Lawrence R.; Gao, Yongli; Xu, Hai; Zhang, Haiwei; An, Zhisheng

2018-01-01

The upper Hanjiang River region is the recharge area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The region is under construction of the Hanjiang-Weihe River Water Transfer Project in China. Monsoon precipitation variations in this region are critical to water resource and security of China. In this study, high-resolution monsoon precipitation variations were reconstructed in the upper Hanjiang River region over the past 6650 years from δ18O and δ13C records of four stalagmites in Xianglong cave. The long term increasing trend of stalagmite δ18O record since the middle Holocene is consistent with other speleothem records from monsoonal China. This trend follows the gradually decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, which indicates that solar insolation may control the orbital-scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations. Despite the declined EASM intensity since the middle Holocene, local precipitation may not have decreased remarkably, as revealed by the δ13C records. A series of centennial- to decadal-scale cyclicity was observed, with quasi-millennium-, quasi-century-, 57-, 36- and 22-year cycles by removing the long-term trend of stalagmite δ18O record. Increased monsoon precipitation during periods of 4390-3800 a BP, 3590-2960 a BP, 2050-1670 a BP and 1110-790 a BP had caused four super-floods in the upper reach of Hanjiang River. Dramatically dry climate existed in this region during the 5.0 ka and 2.8 ka events, coinciding with notable droughts in other regions of monsoonal China. Remarkably intensified and southward Westerly jet, together with weakened summer monsoon, may delay the onset of rainy seasons, resulting in synchronous decreasing of monsoon precipitation in China during the two events. During the 4.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age, the upper Hanjiang River region was wet, which was similar to the climate conditions in central and southern China, but was the opposite of drought observed in northern China. We propose that weakened summer monsoon and less strengthened or normal Westerly jet may cause rain belt stay longer in the southward region, which reduced rainfall in northern China but enhanced it in central and southern China.

Multiple Quasi-Equilibria of the ITCZ and the Origin of Monsoon Onset. Part 2; Rotational ITCZ Attractors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Chao's numerical and theoretical work on multiple quasi-equilibria of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the origin of monsoon onset is extended to solve two additional puzzles. One is the highly nonlinear dependence on latitude of the "force" acting on the ITCZ due to earth's rotation, which makes the multiple quasi-equilibria of the ITCZ and monsoon onset possible. The other is the dramatic difference in such dependence when different cumulus parameterization schemes are used in a model. Such a difference can lead to a switch between a single ITCZ at the equator and a double ITCZ, when a different cumulus parameterization scheme is used. Sometimes one of the double ITCZ can diminish and only the other remain, but still this can mean different latitudinal locations for the single ITCZ. A single idea based on two off-equator attractors for the ITCZ, due to earth's rotation and symmetric with respect to the equator, and the dependence of the strength and size of these attractors on the cumulus parameterization scheme solves both puzzles. The origin of these rotational attractors, explained in Part I, is further discussed. The "force" acting on the ITCZ due to earth's rotation is the sum of the "forces" of the two attractors. Each attractor exerts on the ITCZ a "force" of simple shape in latitude; but the sum gives a shape highly varying in latitude. Also the strength and the domain of influence of each attractor vary, when change is made in the cumulus parameterization. This gives rise to the high sensitivity of the "force" shape to cumulus parameterization. Numerical results, of experiments using Goddard's GEOS general circulation model, supporting this idea are presented. It is also found that the model results are sensitive to changes outside of the cumulus parameterization. The significance of this study to El Nino forecast and to tropical forecast in general is discussed.

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.

1999-01-01

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Environmental status of groundwater affected by chromite ore processing residue (COPR) dumpsites during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.

PubMed

Matern, Katrin; Weigand, Harald; Singh, Abhas; Mansfeldt, Tim

2017-02-01

Chromite ore processing residue (COPR) is generated by the roasting of chromite ores for the extraction of chromium. Leaching of carcinogenic hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) from COPR dumpsites and contamination of groundwater is a key environmental risk. The objective of the study was to evaluate Cr(VI) contamination in groundwater in the vicinity of three COPR disposal sites in Uttar Pradesh, India, in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Groundwater samples (n = 57 pre-monsoon, n = 70 monsoon) were taken in 2014 and analyzed for Cr(VI) and relevant hydrochemical parameters. The site-specific ranges of Cr(VI) concentrations in groundwater were <0.005 to 34.8 mg L -1 (Rania), <0.005 to 115 mg L -1 (Chhiwali), and <0.005 to 2.0 mg L -1 (Godhrauli). Maximum levels of Cr(VI) were found close to the COPR dumpsites and significantly exceeded safe drinking water limits (0.05 mg L -1 ). No significant dependence of Cr(VI) concentration on monsoons was observed.

Impact of the hydrological cycle on past climate changes: three illustrations at different time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramstein, Gilles; Khodri, Myriam; Donnadieu, Yannick; Fluteau, Frédéric; Goddéris, Yves

2005-02-01

We investigate in the paper the impact of the hydrologic cycle on climate at different periods. The aim is to illustrate how the changes in moisture transport, precipitation pattern, and weathering may alter, at regional or global scales, the CO 2 and climate equilibriums. We choose three climate periods to pinpoint intricate relationships between water cycle and climate. The illustrations are the following. ( i) The onset of ice-sheet build-up, 115 kyr BP. We show that the increased thermal meridian gradient of SST allows large moisture advection over the North American continent and provides appropriate conditions for perennial snow on the Canadian Archipelago. ( ii) The onset of Indian Monsoon at the end of the Tertiary. We demonstrate that superimposed to the Tibetan Plateau, the shrinkage of the Tethys, since Oligocene, plays a major role to explain changes in the geographical pattern of the southeastern Asian Monsoon. ( iii) The onset of Global Glaciation (750 Ma). We show that the break-up of Rodinia occurring at low latitudes is an important feature to explain how the important precipitation increase leads to weathering and carbon burial, which contribute to decrease atmospheric CO 2 enough to produce a snows ball Earth. All these periods have been simulated with a hierarchy of models appropriate to quantify the water cycle impact on climate. To cite this article: G. Ramstein et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).

The Origins of Air Parcels Uplifted in a Two Dimensional Gravity Wave in the Tropical Upper Troposphere During the NASA Stratosphere Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selkirk, Henry B.; Pfister, Leonhard; Chan, K. Roland; Kritz, Mark; Kelly, Ken

1989-01-01

During January and February 1987, as part of the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project, the NASA ER-2 made 11 flights from Darwin, Australia to investigate dehydration mechanisms in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause. After the monsoon onset in the second week of January, steady easterly flow of 15-25 ms (exp -1) was established in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over northern Australia and adjacent seas. Penetrating into this regime were elements of the monsoon convection such as overshooting convective turrets and extensive anvils including cyclone cloud shields. In cases of the latter, the resulting flow obstructions tended to produce mesoscale gravity waves. In several instances the ER- 2 meteorological and trace constituent measurements provide a detailed description of the structure of these gravity waves. Among these was STEP Flight 6, 22-23 January. It is of particular interest to STEP because of the close proximity of ice-laden and dehydrated air on the same isentropic surfaces. Convective events inject large amounts of ice into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere which may not be completely removed by local precipitation processes. In the present instance, a gravity wave for removed from the source region appears to induce relativity rapid upward motion in the ice-laden air and subsequent dessication. Potential mechanisms for such a localized removal process are under investigation.

Effects of Aerosol on Atmospheric Dynamics and Hydrologic Processes During Boreal Spring and Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Kim, K. M.; Chin, Mian

2005-01-01

Global and regional climate impacts of present-day aerosol loading during boreal spring are investigated using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). Three-dimensional distributions of loadings of five species of tropospheric aerosols, i.e., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt are prescribed from outputs of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol loadings are used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor at eleven spectral wavelengths in the radiative transfer code. We find that aerosol-radiative forcing during boreal spring excites a wavetrain-like pattern in tropospheric temperature and geopotential height that emanates from Northern Africa, through Eurasia, to northeastern Pacific. Associated with the teleconnection is strong surface cooling over regions with large aerosol loading, i.e., China, India, and Africa. Low-to-mid tropospheric heating due to shortwave absorption is found in regions with large loading of dust (Northern Africa, and central East Asia), and black carbon (South and East Asia). In addition pronounced surface cooling is found over the Caspian Sea and warming over Eurasian and northeastern Asia, where aerosol loadings are relatively low. These warming and cooling are components of teleconnection pattern produced primarily by atmospheric heating from absorbing aerosols, i.e., dust from North Africa and black carbon from South and East Asia. Effects of aerosols on atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the Asian monsoon region are also investigated. Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in an early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface tempera- cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.

Effects of Aerosol on Atmospheric Dynamics and Hydrologic Processes during Boreal Spring and Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Chin, Mian; Kim, K. M.

2005-01-01

Global and regional climate impacts of present-day aerosol loading during boreal spring are investigated using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). Three-dimensional distributions of loadings of five species of tropospheric aerosols, i.e., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt are prescribed from outputs of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol loadings are used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor at eleven spectral wavelengths in the radiative transfer code. We find that aerosol-radiative forcing during boreal spring excites a wavetrain-like pattern in tropospheric temperature and geopotential height that emanates from Northern Africa, through Eurasia, to northeastern Pacific. Associated with the teleconnection is strong surface cooling over regions with large aerosol loading, i.e., China, India, and Africa. Low-to-mid tropospheric heating due to shortwave absorption is found in regions with large loading of dust (Northern Africa, and central East Asia), and black carbon (South and East Asia). In addition pronounced surface cooling is found over the Caspian Sea and warming over Eurasian and northeastern Asia, where aerosol loadings are relatively low. These warming and cooling are components of teleconnection pattern produced primarily by atmospheric heating from absorbing aerosols, i.e., dust from North Africa and.black carbon from South and East Asia. Effects of aerosols on atmospheric hydrologic cycle in the Asian monsoon region are also investigated. Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in an early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface temperature cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.

Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K.-M.; Ramanathan, V.; Wu, G.; Ding, Y.; Manoj, M. G.; Liu, J.; Qian, Y.; Li, J.; Zhou, T.; Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Ming, Y.; Wang, Y.; Huang, J.; Wang, B.; Xu, X.; Lee, S.-S.; Cribb, M.; Zhang, F.; Yang, X.; Zhao, C.; Takemura, T.; Wang, K.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Guo, J.; Zhai, P. M.; Sugimoto, N.; Babu, S. S.; Brasseur, G. P.

2016-12-01

The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60% of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcing of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

The Impact of Hydrodynamics in Erosion - Deposition Process in Can Gio Mangrove Biosphere Reserve, South Viet Nam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vo-Luong, H. P.

2014-12-01

Can Gio Mangrove Biosphere Reserve is always considered as a friendly green belt to protect and bring up the habitants. However, recently some mangrove areas in the Dong Tranh estuary are being eroded seriously. Based on the field measurements in SW and NE monsoons as well as data of topography changes in 10 years, it is proved that hydrodynamics of waves, tidal currents and riverine currents are the main reasons for erosion-deposition processes at the studied site. The erosion-deposition process changes due to monsoon. The analysed results show that high waves and tidal oscillation cause the increase of the erosion rate in NE monsoon. However, high sediment deposition occurs in SW monsoon due to weak waves and more alluvium from upstream. Many young mangrove trees grow up and develop in the SW monsoon. From the research, it is strongly emphasized the role of mangrove forests in soil retention and energy dissipation.

Rain Basin Design Implications for Soil Microbial Activity and N-mineralization in a Semi-arid Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, C.; Pavao-Zuckerman, M.

2014-12-01

Rain basins have been an increasingly popular Green Infrastructure (GI) solution to the redistribution of water flow caused by urbanization. This study was conducted to examine how different approaches to basin design, specifically mulching (gravel vs. compost and gravel), influence the water availability of rain basins and the effects this has on the soil microbial activity of the basins. Soil microbes are a driving force of biogeochemical process and may impact the carbon and nitrogen dynamics of rain basin GI. In this study we sampled 12 different residential-scale rain basins, differing in design established at Biosphere 2, Arizona in 2013. Soil samples and measurements were collected before and after the onset of the monsoon season in 2014 to determine how the design of basins mediates the transition from dry to wet conditions. Soil abiotic factors were measured, such as moisture content, soil organic matter (SOM) content, texture and pH, and were related to the microbial biomass size within the basins. Field and lab potential N-mineralization and soil respiration were measured to determine how basin design influences microbial activity and N dynamics. We found that pre-monsoon basins with compost had higher moisture contents and that there was a positive correlation between the moisture content and the soil microbial biomass size of the basins. Pre-monsoon data also suggests that N-mineralization rates for basins with compost were higher than those with only gravel. These design influences on basin-scale biogeochemical dynamics and nitrogen retention may have important implications for urban biogeochemistry at neighborhood and watershed scales.

Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction, maintenance and variability of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, C.; Lau, W. K. M.; Li, Z.

2016-12-01

In recent years, the discovery of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) from NASA satellite observations has sparked much interests in research on its composition, origin and relationships to the transport processes of atmospheric constituents in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the variability of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). In this paper, based on analysis of MERRA2 reanalysis data, we present results showing that: 1) water vapor, aerosols and chemical gases (BC, OC, dust and CO) originated for the earth surface contribute significantly to the composition of the ATAL during the Asian summer monsoon, 2) one of the major pathways is via the strong large-scale vertical motion, and convective ascent over the Northern Himalayan Foothills during the peak phase of the Indian monsoon, 3) once transported into the UTLS , atmospheric constituents are capped by the Tropopuase inversion Layer (TIL) and advected around within and in the vicinity of the AMA forming the ATAL, 4) the ATAL is modulated by UTLS transport processes which undergo intrinsic monsoon intraseasonal oscillations with 20-30 day quasi-periodicity, coupled to lower tropospheric monsoon dynamics and diabatic heating processes, 5) the pre-monsoon accumulation of absorbing aerosols (BC, OC and dust) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain is more than likely to play an important role in enhancing the UTLS transport of atmospheric constituents from the earth surface to the ATAL.

CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Report to Scientific Steering Group-18

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperber, Ken R.; Hendon, Harry H.

2011-05-04

These are a set of slides on CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Report to Scientific Steering Group-18. These are the major topics covered within: major activities over the past year, AAMP Monsoon Diagnostics/Metrics Task Team, Boreal Summer Asian Monsoon, Workshop on Modelling Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability, Workshop on Interdecadal Variability and Predictability of the Asian-Australian Monsoon, Evidence of Interdecadal Variability of the Asian-Australian Monsoon, Development of MJO metrics/process-oriented diagnostics/model evaluation/prediction with MJOTF and GCSS, YOTC MJOTF, GEWEX GCSS, AAMP MJO Diabatic Heating Experiment, Hindcast Experiment for Intraseasonal Prediction, Support and Coordination for CINDY2011/DYNAMO, Outreach to CORDEX, Interaction with FOCRAII, WWRP/WCRP Multi-Week Predictionmore » Project, Major Future Plans/Activities, Revised AAMP Terms of Reference, Issues and Challenges.« less

Socio-economic, Biophysical, and Perceptional Factors Associated with Agricultural Adaptation of Smallholder Farmers in Gujarat, Northwest India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.

2012-12-01

Climate change is predicted to negatively impact many agricultural communities across the globe, particularly smallholder farmers who often do not have access to appropriate technologies to reduce their vulnerability. To better predict which farmers will be most impacted by future climate change at a regional scale, we use remote sensing and agricultural census data to examine how cropping intensity and crop type have shifted based on rainfall variability across Gujarat, India from 1990 to 2010. Using household-level interviews, we then identify the socio-economic, biophysical, perceptional, and psychological factors associated with smallholder farmers who are the most impacted and the least able to adapt to contemporaneous rainfall variability. We interviewed 750 farmers in 2011 and 2012 that span a rainfall, irrigation, socio-economic, and caste gradient across central Gujarat. Our results show that farmers shift cropping practices in several ways based on monsoon onset, which farmers state is the main observable rainfall signal influencing cropping decisions during the monsoon season. When monsoon onset is delayed, farmers opt to plant more drought-tolerant crops, push back the date of sowing, and increase the number of irrigations used. Comparing self-reported income and yields, we find that switching crops does not improve agricultural income, shifting planting date does not influence crop yield, yet increasing the number of irrigations significantly increases yield. Future work will identify which social (e.g. social networks), psychological (e.g. risk preference), and knowledge (e.g. information sources) factors are associated with farmers who are best able to adapt to rainfall variability.

Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.

PubMed

Naylor, Rosamond L; Battisti, David S; Vimont, Daniel J; Falcon, Walter P; Burke, Marshall B

2007-05-08

El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.

Cloud and aerosol occurrences in the UTLS region across Pakistan during summer monsoon seasons using CALIPSO and CloudSat observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chishtie, Farrukh

2016-04-01

As part of the A-train NASA constellation, Coudsat and CALIPSO provide an unprecedented vertical observation of clouds and aerosols. Using observational data from both of these satellites, we conduct a multi-year analysis from 2006-2014, of the UTLS (Upper Troposphere and the Lower Stratosphere) region. We map out cloud and aerosol occurrences in this region across Pakistan, specifically around the summer monsoon season. Over the past five years, Pakistan has faced tremendous challenges due to massive flooding as well as earlier brief monsoon seasons of low precipitation and short drought periods. Hence, this motivates the present study towards understanding the deep convective and related dynamics in this season which can possibly influence cloud and aerosol transport in the region. Further, while global studies are conducted, the goal of this study is to conduct a detailed study of cloud, aerosols and their interplay, across Pakistan. Due to a dearth of ground observations, this study provides a dedicated focus on the UTLS domain. Vertical profiling satellites in this region are deemed important as there are no ground observations being done. This is important as both the properties and dynamics of clouds and aerosols have to be studied in a wider context in order to better understand the monsoon season and its onset in this region. With the CALIPSO Vertical Feature Mask (VFM), Total Attenuated Backscatter (TAB) and Depolarization Ratio (DR) as well as the combined CloudSat's 2B-GEOPROF-LIDAR (Radar-Lidar Cloud Geometrical Profile) and 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR (Radar-Lidar Cloud Classification) products, we find the presence of thin cirrus clouds in the UTLS region in the periods of June-September from the 2006-2014 period. There are marked differences in day observations as compared to night in both of these satellite retrievals, with the latter period finding more occurrences of clouds in the UTLS region. Dedicated CloudSat products 2B-CLDCLASS (cloud classification) and 2C-TAU (Cloud Optical Depth) further confirm the presence of sub-visual and thin cirrus clouds in the UTLS region, during the summer monsoon season. From CALIPSO observations, there is significant presence of aerosol layers before the onset of precipitation in the troposphere. This thickness ranges from 1-4 km, with increasing thickness observed the 2009-2014 period. Implications of these findings are detailed in this presentation.

Monsoon variability, crop water requirement, and crop planning for kharif rice in Sagar Island, India.

PubMed

Mandal, S; Choudhury, B U; Satpati, L N

2015-12-01

In the Sagar Island of Bay of Bengal, rainfed lowland rice is the major crop, grown solely depending on erratic distribution of southwest monsoon (SM) rainfall. Lack of information on SM rainfall variability and absence of crop scheduling accordingly results in frequent occurrence of intermittent water stress and occasional crop failure. In the present study, we analyzed long period (1982-2010) SM rainfall behavior (onset, withdrawal, rainfall and wetness indices, dry and wet spells), crop water requirement (CWR, by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 56), and probability of weekly rainfall occurrence (by two-parameter gamma distribution) to assess the variability and impact on water availability, CWR, and rice productivity. Finally, crop planning was suggested to overcome monsoon uncertainties on water availability and rice productivity. Study revealed that the normal onset and withdrawal weeks for SM rainfall were 22nd ± 1 and 43rd ± 2 meteorological weeks (MW), respectively. However, effective monsoon rainfall started at 24th MW (rainfall 92.7 mm, p > 56.7 % for 50 mm rainfall) and was terminated by the end of 40th MW (rainfall 90.7 mm, p < 59.6 % for 50 mm rainfall). During crop growth periods (seed to seed, 21st to 45th MW), the island received an average weekly rainfall of 65.1 ± 25.9 mm, while the corresponding weekly CWR was 47.8 ± 5.4 mm. Despite net water surplus of 353.9 mm during crop growth periods, there was a deficit of 159.5 mm water during MW of 18-23 (seedling raising) and MW of 41-45 (flowering to maturity stages). Water stress was observed in early lag vegetative stage of crop growth (32nd MW). The total dry spell frequency during panicle initiation and heading stage was computed as 40 of which 6 dry spells were >7 days in duration and reflected a significant (p < 0.05) increasing trend (at 0.22 days year(-1)) over the years (1982-2010). The present study highlights the adaptive capacity of crop planning including abiotic stress-tolerant cultivars to monsoon rainfall variability for sustaining rainfed rice production vis-à-vis food and livelihood security in vulnerable islands of coastal ecosystem.

South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annamalai, H; Hamilton, K; Sperber, K R

In this paper we use the extensive integrations produced for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to examine the relationship between ENSO and the monsoon at interannual and decadal timescales. We begin with an analysis of the monsoon simulation in the 20th century integrations. Six of the 18 models were found to have a reasonably realistic representation of monsoon precipitation climatology. For each of these six models SST and anomalous precipitation evolution along the equatorial Pacific during El Nino events display considerable differences when compared to observations. Out of these six models only four (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.0, GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1, MRI, and MPI{_}ECHAM5) exhibitmore » a robust ENSO-monsoon contemporaneous teleconnection, including the known inverse relationship between ENSO and rainfall variations over India. Lagged correlations between the all-India rainfall (AIR) index and Nino3.4 SST reveal that three models represent the timing of the teleconnection, including the spring predictability barrier which is manifested as the transition from positive to negative correlations prior to the monsoon onset. Furthermore, only one of these three models (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1) captures the observed phase lag with the strongest anticorrelation of SST peaking 2-3 months after the summer monsoon, which is partially attributable to the intensity of simulated El Nino itself. We find that the models that best capture the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection are those that correctly simulate the timing and location of SST and diabatic heating anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and the associated changes to the equatorial Walker Circulation during El Nino events. The strength of the AIR-Nino3.4 SST correlation in the model runs waxes and wanes to some degree on decadal timescales. The overall magnitude and timescale for this decadal modulation in most of the models is similar to that seen in observations. However, there is little consistency in the phase among the realizations, suggesting a lack of predictability of the decadal modulation of the monsoon-ENSO relationship. The analysis was repeated for each of the four models using results from integrations in which the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration was raised to twice pre-industrial values. From these ''best'' models in the double CO{sub 2} simulations there are increases in both the mean monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent (by 5-25%) and in its interannual variability (5-10%). We find for each model that the ENSO-monsoon correlation in the global warming runs is very similar to that in the 20th century runs, suggesting that the ENSO-monsoon connection will not weaken as global climate warms. This result, though plausible, needs to be taken with some caution because of the diversity in the simulation of ENSO variability in the coupled models we have analyzed. The implication of the present results for monsoon prediction are discussed.« less

Systematic errors in the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon: the role of rainfall variability on a range of time and space scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Gill; Levine, Richard; Klingaman, Nicholas; Bush, Stephanie; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven

2015-04-01

Despite considerable efforts worldwide to improve model simulations of the Asian summer monsoon, significant biases still remain in climatological seasonal mean rainfall distribution, timing of the onset, and northward and eastward extent of the monsoon domain (Sperber et al., 2013). Many modelling studies have shown sensitivity to convection and boundary layer parameterization, cloud microphysics and land surface properties, as well as model resolution. Here we examine the problems in representing short-timescale rainfall variability (related to convection parameterization), problems in representing synoptic-scale systems such as monsoon depressions (related to model resolution), and the relationship of each of these with longer-term systematic biases. Analysis of the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity on a range of timescales ranging from ~30 minutes to daily, in the MetUM and in observations (where available), highlights how rainfall biases in the South Asian monsoon region on different timescales in different regions can be achieved in models through a combination of the incorrect frequency and/or intensity of rainfall. Over the Indian land area, the typical dry bias is related to sub-daily rainfall events being too infrequent, despite being too intense when they occur. In contrast, the wet bias regions over the equatorial Indian Ocean are mainly related to too frequent occurrence of lower-than-observed 3-hourly rainfall accumulations which result in too frequent occurrence of higher-than-observed daily rainfall accumulations. This analysis sheds light on the model deficiencies behind the climatological seasonal mean rainfall biases that many models exhibit in this region. Changing physical parameterizations alters this behaviour, with associated adjustments in the climatological rainfall distribution, although the latter is not always improved (Bush et al., 2014). This suggests a more complex interaction between the diabatic heating and the large-scale circulation than is indicated by the intensity and frequency of rainfall alone. Monsoon depressions and low pressure systems are important contributors to monsoon rainfall over central and northern India, areas where MetUM climate simulations typically show deficient monsoon rainfall. Analysis of MetUM climate simulations at resolutions ranging from N96 (~135km) to N512 (~25km) suggests that at lower resolution the numbers and intensities of monsoon depressions and low pressure systems and their associated rainfall are very low compared with re-analyses/observations. We show that there are substantial increases with horizontal resolution, but resolution is not the only factor. Idealised simulations, either using nudged atmospheric winds or initialised coupled hindcasts, which improve (strengthen) the mean state monsoon and cyclonic circulation over the Indian peninsula, also result in a substantial increase in monsoon depressions and associated rainfall. This suggests that a more realistic representation of monsoon depressions is possible even at lower resolution if the larger-scale systematic error pattern in the monsoon is improved.

Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, P. J.; Magaña, V. O.; Palmer, T. N.; Shukla, J.; Thomas, R. A.; Yanai, M.; Yasunari, T.

1998-06-01

The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program sought to determine the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) program seeks to explore predictability of the global climate system through investigation of the major planetary heat sources and sinks, and interactions between them. The Asian-Australian monsoon system, which undergoes aperiodic and high amplitude variations on intraseasonal, annual, biennial and interannual timescales is a major focus of GOALS. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the monsoon have been made with moderate success for over 100 years. More recent modeling efforts have not been successful. Even simulation of the mean structure of the Asian monsoon has proven elusive and the observed ENSO-monsoon relationships has been difficult to replicate. Divergence in simulation skill occurs between integrations by different models or between members of ensembles of the same model. This degree of spread is surprising given the relative success of empirical forecast techniques. Two possible explanations are presented: difficulty in modeling the monsoon regions and nonlinear error growth due to regional hydrodynamical instabilities. It is argued that the reconciliation of these explanations is imperative for prediction of the monsoon to be improved. To this end, a thorough description of observed monsoon variability and the physical processes that are thought to be important is presented. Prospects of improving prediction and some strategies that may help achieve improvement are discussed.

Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. G.; Guo, L.; Highwood, E.

2016-12-01

The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, resulting in rainfall increases over northern India due to the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the premonsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

Study of Inter Annual and Intra Seasonal cycle of Rainfall using NOAA/INSAT OLR and validation of daily 3B42RT precipitation data sets across India and neighboring seas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

U. Bhanu Kumar, O. S. R.; Ramalingeswara Rao, S.

In view of the thermally driving nature of tropical general circulation deep convection is a key parameter for highlighting the energy source that drives tropical atmospheric motion Regardless of their flaws in estimating deep convection the OLR can nevertheless offer reasonably good estimates for deep convection and rainfall in most tropical regions In the present study INSAT OLR datasets for 7-years 1993-1999 are used to examine the migration of heat sources and sinks over India and neighboring seas The locus of heating is associated with Indian monsoon system Since the motions are driven by gradients of heating and not the absolute magnitude of the sources and sinks themselves the heat sinks are integral parts of Indian monsoon systems Thus study of mean quantitative annual cycle of rainfall in terms of OLR is useful for farmer community and power generation industries over India Secondly anomaly pentad OLR data sets 1 r x1 r are used to examine onset withdrawal and break monsoon situations of summer monsoon season over India Next having identified active and inactive phases of intra seasonal oscillations during boreal summer and boreal winter using NOAA OLR for 25 years 1974-1999 their impact on monsoon systems and tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal are also investigated Finally available 3B42RT data sets which are real time multi satellite precipitation product 0 01 mm hr are validated with rain gauge data across India and island stations

Warm season tree growth and precipitation over Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Therrell, Matthew D.; Stahle, David W.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Villanueva-Diaz, Jose

2002-07-01

We have developed a network of 18 new tree ring chronologies to examine the history of warm season tree growth over Mexico from 1780 to 1992. The chronologies include Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and Montezuma pine (Pinus montezumae Lamb.) latewood width, and Montezuma bald cypress (Taxodium mucronatum Ten.) total ring width. They are located in southwestern Texas, the Sierra Madre Oriental, Sierra Madre Occidental, and southern Mexico as far south as Oaxaca. Seven of these chronologies are among the first precipitation sensitive tree ring records from the American tropics. Principal component analysis of the chronologies indicates that the primary modes of tree growth variability are divided north and south by the Tropic of Cancer. The tree ring data in northern Mexico (PC1) are most sensitive to June-August rainfall, while the data from southern Mexico (PC2) are sensitive to rainfall in April-June. We find that the mode of tree growth variability over southern Mexico is significantly correlated with the onset of the North American Monsoon. Anomalies in monsoon onset, spring precipitation, and tree growth in southern Mexico all tend to be followed by precipitation anomalies of opposite sign later in the summer over most of central Mexico.

The Origin of Monsoon Onset. Part 2; Rotational ITCZ Attractors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Through various specially designed numerical experiments with an aqua-planet general circulation model and theoretical arguments. Chao showed the existence of multiple quasi-equilibria of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). He also showed that monsoon onset could be interpreted as an abrupt transition between the quasi-equilibria of the ITCZ. He further showed that the origin of these quasi-equilibria is related to two different types of attraction pulling the ITCZ in opposite directions. One type of attraction on the ITCZ is due to earth's rotation, which pulls the ITCZ toward the equator or two equatorial latitudes symmetric with respect to the equator depending on the choice of convection scheme, and the other due to the peak of the sea surface temperature (SST, which is given in the experiments a Gaussian profile in latitude and is uniform in longitude), which pulls the ITCZ toward a latitude just poleward of the SST peak. The strength of the attraction due to the earth's rotation has a highly nonlinear dependence on the latitude and that due to the SST peak has a linear (at least in a relative sense) dependence on the latitude.

Moist convection: a key to tropical wave-moisture interaction in Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Longtao; Wong, Sun; Wang, Tao; Huffman, George J.

2018-01-01

Simulation of moist convective processes is critical for accurately representing the interaction among tropical wave activities, atmospheric water vapor transport, and clouds associated with the Indian monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO). In this study, we apply the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate Indian monsoon ISO with three different treatments of moist convective processes: (1) the Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) adjustment cumulus scheme without explicit simulation of moist convective processes; (2) the New Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (NSAS) mass-flux scheme with simplified moist convective processes; and (3) explicit simulation of moist convective processes at convection permitting scale (Nest). Results show that the BMJ experiment is unable to properly reproduce the equatorial Rossby wave activities and the corresponding phase relationship between moisture advection and dynamical convergence during the ISO. These features associated with the ISO are approximately captured in the NSAS experiment. The simulation with resolved moist convective processes significantly improves the representation of the ISO evolution, and has good agreements with the observations. This study features the first attempt to investigate the Indian monsoon at convection permitting scale.

Fast Adjustments of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Anthropogenic Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang; Lee, Dong Eun

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic aerosols are a major factor contributing to human-induced climate change, particularly over the densely populated Asian monsoon region. Understanding the physical processes controlling the aerosol-induced changes in monsoon rainfall is essential for reducing the uncertainties in the future projections of the hydrological cycle. Here we use multiple coupled and atmospheric general circulation models to explore the physical mechanisms for the aerosol-driven monsoon changes on different time scales. We show that anthropogenic aerosols induce an overall reduction in monsoon rainfall and circulation, which can be largely explained by the fast adjustments over land north of 20∘N. This fast response occurs before changes in sea surface temperature (SST), largely driven by aerosol-cloud interactions. However, aerosol-induced SST feedbacks (slow response) cause substantial changes in the monsoon meridional circulation over the oceanic regions. Both the land-ocean asymmetry and meridional temperature gradient are key factors in determining the overall monsoon circulation response.

Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annamalai, H.

The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observationsmore » and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical western Pacific. On the training of post-doctoral scientists: the PI spent considerable amount of time and efforts in introducing the post-docs into climate modeling and designing the numerical experiments. With training provided and knowledge gained, post-docs worked in the project obtained long term positions elsewhere. The PI also enjoyed the experience in managing the works and educating work ethics to the younger generation. Based on the research achievements and publications, the PI gave invited talks in major international monsoon conferences/workshops, and gave lectures in various research organizations in the last six years. Finally, during the project period, the PI attended all the DOE organized PIs meeting and presented the major results. Some of the major implications of the project include: (i) Sustained observational efforts are necessary to monitor the three-dimensional moisture distribution over the Asian monsoon region that would aid in better understanding, modeling and predicting severe monsoons well in advance and (ii) process-based diagnostics lead pathways for model improvements.« less

Moisture-driven xylogenesis in Pinus ponderosa from a Mojave Desert mountain reveals high phenological plasticity.

PubMed

Ziaco, Emanuele; Truettner, Charles; Biondi, Franco; Bullock, Sarah

2018-04-01

Future seasonal dynamics of wood formation in hyperarid environments are still unclear. Although temperature-driven extension of the growing season and increased forest productivity are expected for boreal and temperate biomes under global warming, a similar trend remains questionable in water-limited regions. We monitored cambial activity in a montane stand of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) from the Mojave Desert for 2 consecutive years (2015-2016) showing opposite-sign anomalies between warm- and cold-season precipitation. After the wet winter/spring of 2016, xylogenesis started 2 months earlier compared to 2015, characterized by abundant monsoonal (July-August) rainfall and hyperarid spring. Tree size did not influence the onset and ending of wood formation, highlighting a predominant climatic control over xylem phenological processes. Moisture conditions in the previous month, in particular soil water content and dew point, were the main drivers of cambial phenology. Latewood formation started roughly at the same time in both years; however, monsoonal precipitation triggered the formation of more false rings and density fluctuations in 2015. Because of uncertainties in future precipitation patterns simulated by global change models for the Southwestern United States, the dependency of P. ponderosa on seasonal moisture implies a greater conservation challenge than for species that respond mostly to temperature conditions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evolution of Indian land surface biases in the seasonal hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System GloSea5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, Amulya; Turner, Andrew G.; Woolnoug, Steve J.; Martin, Gill

2017-04-01

In this study we investigate the development of biases over the Indian region in summer hindcasts of the UK Met Office coupled initialised global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2. Previous work has demonstrated the rapid evolution of strong monsoon circulation biases over India from seasonal forecasts initialised in early May, together with coupled strong easterly wind biases on the equator. These mean state biases lead to strong precipitation errors during the monsoon over the subcontinent. We analyse a set of three springtime start dates for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011) and fifteen total ensemble members for each year. We use comparisons with variety of observations to assess the evolution of the mean state biases over the Indian land surface. All biases within the model develop rapidly, particularly surface heat and radiation flux biases. Strong biases are present within the model climatology from pre-monsoon (May) in the surface heat fluxes over India (higher sensible / lower latent heat fluxes) when compared to observed estimates. The early evolution of such biases prior to onset rains suggests possible problems with the land surface scheme or soil moisture errors. Further analysis of soil moisture over the Indian land surface shows a dry bias present from the beginning of the hindcasts during the pre-monsoon. This lasts until the after the monsoon develops (July) after which there is a wet bias over the region. Soil moisture used for initialization of the model also shows a dry bias when compared against the observed estimates, which may lead to the same in the model. The early dry bias in the model may reduce local moisture availability through surface evaporation and thus may possibly limit precipitation recycling. On this premise, we identify and test the sensitivity of the monsoon in the model against higher soil moisture forcing. We run sensitivity experiments initiated using gridpoint-wise annual soil moisture maxima over the Indian land surface as input for experiments in the atmosphere-only version of the model. We plan to analyse the response of the sensitivity experiments on seasonal forecasting of surface heat fluxes and subsequently monsoon precipitation.

The Last Interglacial Climate Variability in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Lu, Y.; Sinha, A.; Ma, Z.; Tan, M.; Edwards, R.; Cheng, H.

2013-12-01

Speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records can reconstruct high-resolution and absolutely dated climate history, in particular, the variability of monsoon precipitation that is associated with the changes in atmospheric circulation and, in turn, the δ18O of precipitation. In the East Asian monsoon domain, although speleothem records have been established in southeastern China over the last decade, including several records covering the last interglacial period (MIS 5e), similar records are virtually absent in northern China. This hampers our understanding of the mechanism of the East Asian monsoon changes, because the northern China δ18O record is, as recently shown by modeling work, more sensitive to changes in summer monsoon precipitation than that from southeastern China. Here we provide a high-resolution and absolutely dated speleothem δ18O record between ~129 and 119 ka BP from Kulishu cave, Beijing, northern China. It shows an abrupt onset of MIS 5e at 129.4×0.7 ka BP, similar within dating uncertainty to the Dongge, Hulu, and Sanbao records from southeastern China. However, the end of MIS 5e is rather gradual in comparison to the southern China counterparts. While overall MIS5e monsoon climate appears to be rather stable on orbital timescales, broadly following northern hemisphere summer insolation, millennial/centennial-scale events punctuate the Kulishu record. Spectral analysis reveals a significant quasi-1500 year periodicity, comparable to the Bond cycle, first observed in the North Atlantic during the Holocene, and more recently in interglacial East Asian monsoon cave records. As such, events with a ~1500 year pacing appear to be a persistent characteristic of the East Asian monsoon for good portions of the past two glacial-interglacial periods. Changes in solar output would be one possibility for the trigger; changes in ocean circulation with a ~1500-year time constant would be another. Comparison with Hulu(MSX, Cheng et al., 2006)-Dongge(D3, D4, Kelly et al., 2006)-Sanbao(SB23, SB25, Wang et al., 2008) complex.

Assessment of two versions of regional climate model in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon over South Asia CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Panda, S. K.; Saraswat, Vaishali; Dash, S. K.

2018-04-01

This study assess the performance of two versions of Regional Climate Model (RegCM) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon over South Asia for the period 1998 to 2003 with an aim of conducting future climate change simulations. Two sets of experiments were carried out with two different versions of RegCM (viz. RegCM4.2 and RegCM4.3) with the lateral boundary forcings provided from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 50 km horizontal resolution. The major updates in RegCM4.3 in comparison to the older version RegCM4.2 are the inclusion of measured solar irradiance in place of hardcoded solar constant and additional layers in the stratosphere. The analysis shows that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, moisture flux and surface net downward shortwave flux are better represented in RegCM4.3 than that in the RegCM4.2 simulations. Excessive moisture flux in the RegCM4.2 simulation over the northern Arabian Sea and Peninsular India resulted in an overestimation of rainfall over the Western Ghats, Peninsular region as a result of which the all India rainfall has been overestimated. RegCM4.3 has performed well over India as a whole as well as its four rainfall homogenous zones in reproducing the mean monsoon rainfall and inter-annual variation of rainfall. Further, the monsoon onset, low-level Somali Jet and the upper level tropical easterly jet are better represented in the RegCM4.3 than RegCM4.2. Thus, RegCM4.3 has performed better in simulating the mean summer monsoon circulation over the South Asia. Hence, RegCM4.3 may be used to study the future climate change over the South Asia.

The effects of monsoons and climate teleconnections on the Niangziguan Karst Spring discharge in North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Juan; Hao, Yonghong; Hu, Bill X.; Huo, Xueli; Hao, Pengmei; Liu, Zhongfang

2017-01-01

Karst aquifers supply drinking water for 25 % of the world's population, and they are, however, vulnerable to climate change. This study is aimed to investigate the effects of various monsoons and teleconnection patterns on Niangziguan Karst Spring (NKS) discharge in North China for sustainable exploration of the karst groundwater resources. The monsoons studied include the Indian Summer Monsoon, the West North Pacific Monsoon and the East Asian Summer Monsoon. The climate teleconnection patterns explored include the Indian Ocean Dipole, E1 Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The wavelet transform and wavelet coherence methods are used to analyze the karst hydrological processes in the NKS Basin, and reveal the relations between the climate indices with precipitation and the spring discharge. The study results indicate that both the monsoons and the climate teleconnections significantly affect precipitation in the NKS Basin. The time scales that the monsoons resonate with precipitation are strongly concentrated on the time scales of 0.5-, 1-, 2.5- and 3.5-year, and that climate teleconnections resonate with precipitation are relatively weak and diverged from 0.5-, 1-, 2-, 2.5-, to 8-year time scales, respectively. Because the climate signals have to overcome the resistance of heterogeneous aquifers before reaching spring discharge, with high energy, the strong climate signals (e.g. monsoons) are able to penetrate through aquifers and act on spring discharge. So the spring discharge is more strongly affected by monsoons than the climate teleconnections. During the groundwater flow process, the precipitation signals will be attenuated, delayed, merged, and changed by karst aquifers. Therefore, the coherence coefficients between the spring discharge and climate indices are smaller than those between precipitation and climate indices. Further, the fluctuation of the spring discharge is not coincident with that of precipitation in most situations. Karst spring discharge as a proxy can represent groundwater resource variability at a regional scale, and is more strongly influenced by climate variation.

Did the demise of Green Sahara play a role in the mid-to-late Holocene megadrought and `missing millennia' in southeast Asian societies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, M. L.; Johnson, K. R.; Pausata, F. S. R.; White, J.; Yang, H.; Henderson, G. M.; Conrad, C.

2017-12-01

The mid-to-late Holocene in eastern Africa and Eurasia was characterized by one of, if not the, largest climate anomalies of the past 10,000 years (i.e. the `4.2 ka event'), yet the cause of this event remains enigmatic. The nature and geographical extent of the event has been a topic of great interest because of its potential connections with societal upheavals in western Asia and northeastern Africa. However, while paleoclimate data from India and southern China show evidence for a large-scale megadrought during this period, there have hitherto been no high-resolution and well-dated records from mainland southeast Asia (MSEA) to document the regional footprint of this event. This is somewhat surprising given that this period also coincides with what has been termed the `missing millennia' in MSEA, which refers to the major gap in archeological evidence that may have some link with the broader Asian monsoon failure during this time. To help shed light on the potential connection between climate change and the missing millennia, we have compiled four new speleothem oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records from Tham Doun Mai cave in northern Laos. The δ18O profiles show a general increasing trend through much of the Holocene which is interpreted to reflect an overall weakening of the Southeast Asian monsoon. This general trend is punctuated by a marked positive δ18O shift at 4-5 ka, signifying an overall reduction in monsoon strength that persisted until 3.5 ka. Interestingly, the onset of this anomaly coincides with the cessation in speleothem growth of three speleothems, and a 4 per mil increase in δ13C for the speleothem that continued to grow. We interpret this large and abrupt increase in δ13C to reflect enhanced CO2 degassing due to a much slower drip-rate (supported by a slower growth rate), and the hiatuses to reflect large groundwater deficits to those drip sites. The onset of this abrupt megadrought in northern Laos is consistent with abrupt cooling in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, and matches the timing of west African monsoon (WAM) failure. Using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust emissions (such as during the Green Sahara demise) cool the Indian Ocean and shift eastward the Walker circulation, causing a weakening of the Indian Summer Monsoon.

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian Summer Monsoons on the Intraseasonal Time Scale Based on 10 AMIP2 Model Runs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Man Li C.; Schubert, Siegfried; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian summer monsoons is examined using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and 100 two-year simulations with ten different Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We focus on the intraseasonal variations of the south Asian summer monsoon associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a clear coupling between SST anomalies and upper level velocity potential anomalies associated with the MJO. We analyze several MJO events that developed during the 1997 and 1998 focusing of the coupling with the SST. The same analysis is carried out for the model simulations. Remarkably, the ensemble mean of the two-year AGCM simulations show a signature of the observed MJO events. The ensemble mean simulated MJO events are approximately in phase with the observed events, although they are weaker, the period of oscillation is somewhat longer, and their onset is delayed by about ten days compared with the observations. Details of the analysis and comparisons among the ten AMIP2 (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) models will be presented in the conference.

Indian Monsoon Depression: Climatology and Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Huang, Wan-Ru

The monsoon climate is traditionally characterized by large seasonal rainfall and reversal of wind direction (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Most importantly this rainfall is the major source of fresh water to various human activities such as agriculture. The Indian subcontinent resides at the core of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon system, with the monsoon trough extended from northern India across Indochina to the Western Tropical Pacific (WTP). Large fraction of annual rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season, i.e., June - August with two distinct maxima. One is located over the Bay of Bengal with rainfall extending northwestward into eastern andmore » central India, and the other along the west coast of India where the lower level moist wind meets the Western Ghat Mountains (Saha and Bavardeckar 1976). The rest of the Indian subcontinent receives relatively less rainfall. Various weather systems such as tropical cyclones and weak disturbances contribute to monsoon rainfall (Ramage 1971). Among these systems, the most efficient rain-producing system is known as the Indian monsoon depression (hereafter MD). This MD is critical for monsoon rainfall because: (i) it occurs about six times during each summer monsoon season, (ii) it propagates deeply into the continent and produces large amounts of rainfall along its track, and (iii) about half of the monsoon rainfall is contributed to by the MDs (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Therefore, understanding various properties of the MD is a key towards comprehending the veracity of the Indian summer monsoon and especially its hydrological process.« less

Introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, De-Zheng; Bryan, Frank

Largely following the order in which the lectures were given in the graduate class on climate dynamics at the University of Colorado, the book starts with the topic of moist convection in the tropics. Summarizing decades-long research into a succinct article, Moncrieff [this volume] reviews the state of the art of understanding of organized precipitating convective systems with an eye to improving the representation of such systems in global weather and climate models. Moncrieff also addresses in this chapter the multi-scale convective organization in the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a major source of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. The second chapter proceeds to a prominent phenomenon on the seasonal time scale: monsoons. In covering this topic, Li [this volume] focuses his analysis on the Asian monsoon and dissects the physical processes that are responsible for its intraseasonal and interannual variability. All three subcomponents of the Asian monsoon are covered here: the Indian monsoon, the East Asian monsoon, and the Western North Pacific monsoon.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

PubMed

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

2016-04-13

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

Preceding winter La Niña reduces Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Arindam

2018-05-01

Leaving out the strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years, our understanding in the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) stands poor for the rest. This study quantifies the role of ENSO in the preceding winter on ISMR with a particular emphasis on ENSO-neutral summer and La Niña winter. Results show that, unlike the simultaneous ENSO-ISMR relationship, La Niña of previous winter reduces mean rainfall over the country by about 4% even during ENSO neutral summer. Moreover, when ENSO changes phase from La Niña in winter to El Niño in summer, ISMR is anomalously lower than during persisting El Niño years (‑14.5% and ‑5.3%, respectively), increasing the probability of severe drought. This suppression effect of La Niña of the preceding winter on summer monsoon precipitation over India is mostly experienced in its western and southern parts. Principal component analysis of the zonal propagation of surface pressure anomalies from winter to summer along Northern Hemisphere subtropics decomposes interannual variations of seasonally persisting anomalies from zonal propagations. The dominant modes are associated with the seasonal transition of the ENSO phase, and are well correlated with date of onset and seasonal mean rainfall of monsoon over India. These results improve our understanding of the interannual variations of ISMR and could be used for diagnostics of general circulation models.

Southern Indian Ocean SST as a modulator for the progression of Indian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahi, Namendra Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Mishra, Nishant

2018-01-01

This study explores the possibility of southern Indian Ocean (SIO) sea surface temperature (SST) as a modulator for the early phase of Indian summer monsoon and its possible physical mechanism. A dipole-like structure is obtained from the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis which is similar to an Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) found earlier. A subtropical dipole index (SDI) is defined based on the SST anomaly over the positive and negative poles. The regression map of rainfall over India in the month of June corresponding to the SDI during 1983-2013 shows negative patterns along the Western Ghats and Central India. However, the regression pattern is insignificant during 1952-1982. The multiple linear regression models and partial correlation analysis also indicate that the SDI acts as a dominant factor to influence the rainfall over India in the month of June during 1983-2013. The similar result is also obtained with the help of composite rainfall over the land points of India in the month of June for positive (negative) SDI events. It is also observed that the positive (negative) SDI delays (early) the onset dates of Indian monsoon over Kerala during the time domain of our study. The study is further extended to identify the physical mechanism of this impact, and it is found that the heating (cooling) in the region covering SDI changes the circulation pattern in the SIO and hence impacts the progression of monsoon in India.

Comments on "The "Elevated Heat Pump" Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: "Grounded" in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2010-01-01

In their recent paper Nigam and Bollasina [2010, hereafter NB] claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Km 2006). We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from a lack of understanding and an out-of-context interpretation of the hypothesis. It was argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May as evidences against the EHP hypothesis. They cannot be more wrong in that argument. First, Lau and Kim [2006, hereafter, LKO6] never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are non-local in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. Third, the correlation maps shown in NB, including the increased convection over the Bay of Bengal is not the response to EHP but rather represents the large-scale circulation that provides the build-up of the aerosols, before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no wash-out by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols.

Monthly Variation of Taiwan Strait Through-flow Transports and Associated Water Masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jan, S.; Sheu, D.; Kuo, H.

2005-05-01

Through-flow transports and associated water masses are analyzed using current data measured by bottom-mounted and ship-board ADCP (1999-2001) across the central Taiwan Strait and strait-wide hydrographic data acquired from 79 CTD survey cruises (1986-2003). The East Asian monsoon, from southwest in July to August and northeast in October to March, controls the transport fluctuation which peaks in August (2.34 Sv northward), is hampered by the northeast monsoon after September and diminishes to the minimum (0.26 Sv southward) in December. The standard deviation of the calculated transport ranges from 0.56 to 1.05 Sv during northeast monsoon months and is relatively small in other months. A cluster analysis together with conventional T-S diagrams identifies the saline and warm Kuroshio Branch Water (KBW), the less saline South China Sea Surface Water (SCSSW), the brackish and cold China Coastal Water (CCW), the saline Subsurface Water (SW) (depth > 100 m) and the Diluted Coastal Water (DCW). The majority of the northward transport in summer carries the SCSSW to the East China Sea. Meanwhile, the DCW appears off the northwest bank of the strait and the SW resides in the bottom layer of a deep trench in the southeastern strait. The onset of the northeast monsoon in September drives the CCW from the Yangtze river mouth to the northern strait. In the southern strait, the northward-moving KBW replaces the SCSSW and meets the southward-intruding CCW in the middle strait during November to April.

Numerical Study of the Influences of a Monsoon Gyre on Intensity Changes of Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jia; Wu, Liguang; Gu, Guojun

2018-05-01

Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015) underwent a weakening in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) when it interacted with a monsoon gyre, but all operational forecasts failed to predict this intensity change. A recent observational study indicated that it resulted from its interaction with a monsoon gyre on the 15-30-day timescale. In this study, the results of two numerical experiments are presented to investigate the influence of the monsoon gyre on the intensity changes of Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015). The control experiment captures the main observed features of the weakening process of Chan-Hom (2015) during a sharp northward turn in the Philippine Sea, including the enlargement of the eye size, the development of strong convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre, and the corresponding strong outer inflow. The sensitivity experiment suggests that intensity changes of Chan-Hom (2015) were mainly associated with its interaction with the monsoon gyre. When Chan-Hom (2015) initially moved westward in the eastern part of the monsoon gyre, the monsoon gyre enhanced the inertial stability for the intensification of the typhoon. With its coalescence with the monsoon gyre, the development of the strong convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre prevented moisture and mass entering the inner core of Chan-Hom (2015), resulting in the collapse of the eyewall. Thus, the weakening happened in the deep tropical WNP region. The numerical simulations confirm the important effects of the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres on tropical cyclone intensity.

Predictability of Extreme Climate Events via a Complex Network Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhkin, D.; Kurths, J.

2017-12-01

We analyse climate dynamics from a complex network approach. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. This concept is then applied to Monsoon data; in particular, we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by combining a non-linear synchronization technique with complex networks. Applying this method, we uncover a new mechanism of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes which could be used for operational forecasts. Moreover, we analyze the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and identify two regions of high importance. By estimating an underlying critical point, this leads to an improved prediction of the onset of the ISM; this scheme was successful in 2016 and 2017.

Hydrogeochemical characterization of groundwater of peninsular Indian region using multivariate statistical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacintha, T. German Amali; Rawat, Kishan Singh; Mishra, Anoop; Singh, Sudhir Kumar

2017-10-01

Groundwater quality of Chennai, Tamil Nadu (India) has been assessed during different seasons of year 2012. Three physical (pH, EC, and TDS) and four chemical parameters (Ca2+, Cl-, TH, Mg2+ and SO4 2-) from 18 bore wells were assessed. The results showed that pH of majority of groundwater samples indicates a slightly basic condition (7.99post-monsoon and 8.35pre-monsoon). TH was slightly hard [322.11 mg/lpre-monsoon, 299.37 mg/lpost-monsoon but lies under World Health Organization (WHO) upper limit]. EC, TDS, Ca2+ and Mg2+ concentrations were under WHO permissible limit during post-monsoon (1503.42 μS/cm, 1009.37, 66.58 and 32.42 mg/l respectively) and pre-monsoon (1371.58 μS/cm, 946.84, 71.79 and 34.79 mg/l, respectively). EC shows a good correlation with SO4 2- ( R 2 = 0.59pre-monsoon, 0.77post-monsoon) which indicates that SO4 2- plays a major role in EC of ground water of bore wells. SO4 2- has also showed positive correlations with TDS ( R 2 = 0.84pre-monsoon, 0.95post-monsoon) and TH ( R 2 = 0.70pre-monsoon, 0.75post-monsoon). The principal component analysis (PCA)/factor analysis (FA) was carried out; Factor1 explains 59.154 and 69.278 % of the total variance during pre- and post-monsoon, respectively, with a strong positive loading on Ca2+, Mg2+, SO4 2-, TDS and a negative loading on pH. Factor2 accounts for 13.94 and 14.22 % of the total variance during pre- and post-monsoon, respectively, and was characterized by strong positive loading of only pH and poor/negative loading of EC, Ca2+, Mg2+, SO4 2-, TDS and TH during pre- and post-monsoon. We recommend routine monitoring and thorough treatment before consumption. Further, this study has demonstrated the effectiveness of PCA/FA to assess the hydrogeochemical processes governing the groundwater chemistry in the area.

Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Andrew; Bhat, Gs; Evans, Jonathan; Marsham, John; Martin, Gill; Parker, Douglas; Taylor, Chris; Bhattacharya, Bimal; Madan, Ranju; Mitra, Ashis; Mrudula, Gm; Muddu, Sekhar; Pattnaik, Sandeep; Rajagopal, En; Tripathi, Sachida

2015-04-01

The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, making understanding and predicting its rainfall vital for the growing population and economy. However, modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly, with significant inter-model differences pointing to errors in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. These errors persist into climate projections and many of these errors persist even when increasing resolution. At the same time, a lack of detailed observations is preventing a more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface: a process governed by the boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. The INCOMPASS project will support and develop modelling capability in Indo-UK monsoon research, including test development of a new Met Office Unified Model 100m-resolution domain over India. The first UK detachment of the FAAM research aircraft to India, in combination with an intensive ground-based observation campaign, will gather new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles to go with detailed information on the timing of monsoon rainfall. Observations will be focused on transects in the northern plains of India (covering a range of surface types from irrigated to rain-fed agriculture, and wet to dry climatic zones) and across the Western Ghats and rain shadow in southern India (including transitions from land to ocean and across orography). A pilot observational campaign is planned for summer 2015, with the main field campaign to take place during spring/summer 2016. This project will advance our ability to forecast the monsoon, through a programme of measurements and modelling that aims to capture the key surface-atmosphere feedback processes in models. The observational analysis will allow a unique and unprecedented characterization of monsoon processes that will feed directly into model development at the UK Met Office and Indian NCMRWF, through model evaluation at a range of scales and leading to model improvement by working directly with parametrization developers. The project will institute a new long-term series of measurements of land surface fluxes, a particularly unconstrained observation for India, through eddy covariance flux towers. Combined with detailed land surface modelling using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model, this will allow testing of land surface initialization in monsoon forecasts and improved land-atmosphere coupling.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

PubMed Central

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

2016-01-01

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales. PMID:27071753

Chemical characteristics of submicron particles at the central Tibetan Plateau: insights from aerosol mass spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jianzhong; Zhang, Qi; Shi, Jinsen; Ge, Xinlei; Xie, Conghui; Wang, Junfeng; Kang, Shichang; Zhang, Ruixiong; Wang, Yuhang

2018-01-01

Recent studies have revealed a significant influx of anthropogenic aerosol from South Asia to the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau (TP) during pre-monsoon period. In order to characterize the chemical composition, sources, and transport processes of aerosol in this area, we carried out a field study during June 2015 by deploying a suite of online instruments including an Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-AMS) and a multi-angle absorption photometer (MAAP) at Nam Co station (90°57' E, 30°46' N; 4730 m a.s.l.) at the central of the TP. The measurements were made at a period when the transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon occurred. The average ambient mass concentration of submicron particulate matter (PM1) over the whole campaign was ˜ 2.0 µg m-3, with organics accounting for 68 %, followed by sulfate (15 %), black carbon (8 %), ammonium (7 %), and nitrate (2 %). Relatively higher aerosol mass concentration episodes were observed during the pre-monsoon period, whereas persistently low aerosol concentrations were observed during the monsoon period. However, the chemical composition of aerosol during the higher aerosol concentration episodes in the pre-monsoon season was on a case-by-case basis, depending on the prevailing meteorological conditions and air mass transport routes. Most of the chemical species exhibited significant diurnal variations with higher values occurring during afternoon and lower values during early morning, whereas nitrate peaked during early morning in association with higher relative humidity and lower air temperature. Organic aerosol (OA), with an oxygen-to-carbon ratio (O / C) of 0.94, was more oxidized during the pre-monsoon period than during monsoon (average O / C ratio of 0.72), and an average O / C was 0.88 over the entire campaign period, suggesting overall highly oxygenated aerosol in the central TP. Positive matrix factorization of the high-resolution mass spectra of OA identified two oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) factors: a less oxidized OOA (LO-OOA) and a more oxidized OOA (MO-OOA). The MO-OOA dominated during the pre-monsoon period, whereas LO-OOA dominated during monsoon. The sensitivity of air mass transport during pre-monsoon with synoptic process was also evaluated with a 3-D chemical transport model.

Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis: Part II variability associated with ENSO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tomita, Tomohiko; Yanai, Michio

The link between the Asian monsoon and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been demonstrated by a number of studies. This study examines two ENSO withdrawal periods and discusses if the Asian monsoon played a role in the differences between them. The 1986 event occurred in the later half of 1986 and retreated in 1988. The 1951 and 1991 events were similar to each other and seemed to continue to the second year after onset and not to have the clear La Nina phase after the events. In the central and eastern Pacific, three variables progress in phase as themore » ENSO cycle: sea surface temperature (SST), heat source (Q1), and divergence. Correlation coefficients were calculated and examined with the mean SST on the equator and with the standard deviation of the interannual components of SST. In the central and eastern Pacific, the standard deviation is large and three correlation coefficients are large (over 0.6). Strong air-sea interaction associated with ENSO cycle is deduced. In the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, the correlation coefficients with SST become small rapidly, while the correlation coefficient between Q1 and the divergence is still large. The interannual variability of SSt may not be crucial for those of Q1 and of the divergence in this region because of the potential to generate well organized convection through the high mean SST. This suggests that various factors, such as effects from mid-latitudes, may modify the interannual variability in the region. To examine the effects of the Asian winter monsoon, the anomalous wind field at 850 hPa was investigated. The conditions of the Asian winter monsoon were quite different between the withdrawal periods in the 1986 and 1991 ENSO events. The Asian winter monsoon seems to be a factor to modify the ENSO cycle, especially in the retreat periods. In addition, the SST from the tropical Indian Ocean to western Pacific may be important for the modulation of the ENSO/monsoon system. 9 refs., 10 figs.« less

Regional Aerosol Forcing over India: Preliminary Results from the South West Asian Aerosol-Monsoon Interactions (SWAAMI) Aircraft Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, W.; Brooks, J.; Fox, C.; Haslett, S.; Liu, D.; Kompalli, S. K.; Pathak, H.; Manoj, M. R.; Allan, J. D.; Haywood, J. M.; Highwood, E.; Langridge, J.; Nanjundaiah, R. S.; Krishnamoorthy, K.; Babu, S. S.; Satheesh, S. K.; Turner, A. G.; Coe, H.

2016-12-01

Aerosol particles from multiple sources across the Indian subcontinent build up to form a dense and extensive haze across the region in advance of the monsoon. These aerosols are thought to perturb the regional radiative balance and hydrological cycle, which may have a significant impact on the monsoon circulation, as well as influencing the associated cloud and rainfall of the system. However the nature and magnitude of such impacts are poorly understood or constrained. Major uncertainties relevant to the regional aerosol burden include its vertical distribution, the relative contribution of different pollution sources and natural emissions and the role of absorbing aerosol species (black carbon and mineral dust). The South West Asian Aerosol-Monsoon Interactions (SWAAMI) project sought to address these major uncertainties by conducting an airborne experiment during June/July 2016 on-board the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement (FAAM) BAe-146 research aircraft. Based out of Lucknow in the), The aircraft conducted multiple flights from Lucknow in the heart of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in advance of the monsoon and during the onset phase. The spatial and vertical distribution of aerosol was evaluated across northern India, encompassing drier desert-like regions to the west, heavily populated urban and industrial centres over the IGP and air masses in outflow regions to the south-east towards the Bay of Bengal. Principal measurements included aerosol chemical composition using an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer and a DMT Single Particle Soot Photometer, alongside a Leosphere backscatter LIDAR. Sulphate was a major contributor to the aerosol burden across India, while the organic aerosol was elevated and more dominant over the most polluted regions of the IGP. Substantial aerosol concentrations were frequently observed up to altitudes of approximately 6km, with notable changes in aerosol chemical and physical properties when comparing different layers between there and the surface. Black carbon concentrations were enhanced at lower altitudes (approximately 0-2km), with reduced concentrations above this. Further observations will be presented and used to characterise the regional aerosol burden and its associated interactions with the monsoon.

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolis, Ellis; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.

Strong Central Asian seasonality from Eocene oysters indicates early monsoons and aridification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougeois, Laurie; de Rafélis, Marc; Tindall, Julia; Proust, Jean-Noël; Reichart, Gert-Jan; de Nooijer, Lennart; Guo, ZhaoJie; Ormukov, Cholponbek; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume

2017-04-01

Climate models suggest that the onset of Asian monsoons and aridification have been governed by Tibetan plateau uplift, global climate changes and the retreat to the west of the vast epicontinental Proto-Paratethys sea during the warm Eocene greenhouse period (55-34 million years ago). However, the role of the Proto-Paratethys sea on climate remains to be quantified by accurate and precise reconstructions. By applying a novel intra-annual geochemical multi-proxy methodology on Eocene oyster shells of the Proto-Paratethys sea and comparing results to climate simulations and sedimentology analyses, we show that the Central Asian region was generally arid with a high seasonal contrast characterized by hot and arid summers and wetter winters. Hotter and more arid summers despite the presence of the Proto-Paratethys may be explained by warmer Eocene global conditions with a strong anticyclonic Hadley cell descending at Central Asian latitudes and a stronger Foehn effect from the emerging Tibetan Plateau to the south. This implies that the shallow sea did not have a strong dampening thermal effect on the monsoonal circulation in contrast to previous circulation models results but in agreement with recent evidence for Eocene summer monsoons. Enhanced winter precipitations, relative to modern, is linked to a westerly moisture source coming from the Proto-Paratethys sea at that time. Additional bulk sediment stable isotope data from marine limestones and pedogenic carbonates suggest a gradual decrease in this westerly moisture source, which is in line with the retreat of the Proto-Paratethys followed by the Oligo-Miocene orogeny of the Central Asian ranges (Tian Shan and Pamir) shielding the westerlies.

South American climate during the Last Glacial Maximum: Delayed onset of the South American monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

2006-01-01

The climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) over South America is simulated using a regional climate model with 60-km resolution, providing a simulation that is superior to those available from global models that do not resolve the topography and regional-scale features of the South American climate realistically. LGM conditions on SST, insolation, vegetation, and reduced atmospheric CO2 on the South American climate are imposed together and individually. Remote influences are not included. Annual rainfall is 25-35% lower in the LGM than in the present day simulation throughout the Amazon basin. A primary cause is a 2-3 month delay in the onset of the rainy season, so that the dry season is about twice as long as in the present day. The delayed onset occurs because the low-level inflow from the tropical Atlantic onto the South American continent is drier than in the present day simulation due to reduced evaporation from cooler surface waters, and this slows the springtime buildup of moist static energy that is needed to initiate convection. Once the monsoon begins in the Southern Hemisphere, LGM rainfall rates are similar to those in the present day. In the Northern Hemisphere, however, rainfall is lower throughout the (shortened) rainy season. Regional-scale structure includes slight precipitation increases in the Nordeste region of Brazil and along the eastern foothills of the Andes, and a region in the center of the Amazon basin that does not experience annual drying. In the Andes Mountains, the signal is complicated, with regions of significant rainfall increases adjacent to regions with reduced precipitation.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-04-01

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McRobie, F. H.; Stemler, T.; Wyrwoll, K.-H.

2015-08-01

The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in monsoon strength over longer time scales. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Niño-related proxy records, have been qualitative, relying on 'curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9000 years. The resulting networks demonstrate the existence of coupling relationships between regional monsoon systems on millennial time scales, but also highlight the transient nature of teleconnections during this period. In the context of the northwest Australian summer monsoon, we recognise a shift in coupling relationships from strong interhemispheric links with East Asian and ITCZ-related proxy records in the mid-Holocene to significantly weaker coupling in the later Holocene. Although the identified links cannot explain the underlying physical processes leading to coupling between regional monsoon systems, this method provides a step towards understanding the role that changes in teleconnections play in millennial-to orbital-scale climate variability.

Holocene glacier fluctuations and migration of Neolithic yak pastoralists into the high valleys of northwest Bhutan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, M. C.; Hofmann, Ch.-Ch.; Gemmell, A. M. D.; Haslinger, E.; Häusler, H.; Wangda, D.

2009-06-01

Here we present geomorphologic, palaeoenvironmental and archaeo-botanical data which elucidate the Late Pleistocene and Holocene glacial history of the high, mountain-locked Himalayan valleys in northwest Bhutan and provide one of the earliest proofs of human activity yet known for the High Himalaya range. In this area, difficult to access, close linkage between climatic change, glacier fluctuations and human migration patterns has been discovered. Glacier systems in the studied area are characterized by avalanching and debris mantled glacier snouts, with the significant local influence of the Indian summer monsoon causing decoupling of glacier responses from temperature changes but supporting the idea of monsoonal forcing. Geomorphologic mapping, together with Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon dating of ice-proximal sediments, has been used to construct a local glacial chronology. Local ice-stream networks developed during the Early Holocene (ca 10,000-9000 a ago) and during the early part of the Mid Holocene (6710 ± 90-4680 ± 155 cal a BP) at which times there were ice advances of about 5 km from the modern glacier termini. At such times, the intensity of pro- and periglacial processes would have intensified and ice-dammed lakes were probably common as well, rendering human colonization of the high valleys in northwest Bhutan impossible. An abrupt shift to dry climatic conditions on the Tibetan Plateau between 5000 and 4500 a BP coincided with glacial decay and the onset of morphodynamically stable conditions on the broad valley floors of the high valleys in this part of the Himalaya. Palynological data suggest that the sudden disappearance of juniper and rhododendron pollen, the immediate onset of pollen input from cereals (confirmed by detailed SEM analysis) and a clear pattern of over-grazing, trampling and peat deterioration can be linked to human arrival in the valleys at ca 4280 ± 130 cal a BP. Extensive charcoal horizons dating to 4745 ± 250 and 4680 ± 155 cal a BP are interpreted as evidence for human use of fire and forest clearances and agree spatially and temporally with the pollen-based picture. Charcoal occurrences as old as 6710 ± 90 cal a BP might be linked to yet earlier exploration of these Himalayan valleys during phases of low glacial activity. We provide an account of the colonization of these high valleys in response to glacial and monsoonal change and argue that the most likely founder societies come from the Tibetan Plateau, where yak and barley based pastoralism and Neolithic settlements are known to have existed since the Mid Holocene.

Observed Oceanic and Terrestrial Drivers of North African Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2015-12-01

Hydrologic variability can pose a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Yet, the current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts/pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models. In order to identify the observed drivers of North African climate and develop a benchmark for model evaluations, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied to observations, remotely sensed data, and reanalysis products. The identified primary oceanic drivers of North African rainfall variability are the Atlantic, tropical Indian, and tropical Pacific Oceans and Mediterranean Sea. During the summer monsoon, positive tropical eastern Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are associated with a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, enhanced ocean evaporation, and greater precipitable water across coastal West Africa, leading to increased West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall and decreased Sahel rainfall. During the short rains, positive SST anomalies in the western tropical Indian Ocean and negative anomalies in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean support greater easterly oceanic flow, evaporation over the western ocean, and moisture advection to East Africa, thereby enhancing rainfall. The sign, magnitude, and timing of observed vegetation forcing on rainfall vary across North Africa. The positive feedback of leaf area index (LAI) on rainfall is greatest during DJF for the Horn of Africa, while it peaks in autumn and is weakest during the summer monsoon for the Sahel. Across the WAM region, a positive LAI anomaly supports an earlier monsoon onset, increased rainfall during the pre-monsoon, and decreased rainfall during the wet season. Through unique mechanisms, positive LAI anomalies favor enhanced transpiration, precipitable water, and rainfall across the Sahel and Horn of Africa, and increased roughness, ascent, and rainfall across the WAM region. The current study represents the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, and provides observational benchmark for model evaluation.

A ˜50 ka record of monsoonal variability in the Darjeeling foothill region, eastern Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Ruby; Bera, Subir; Sarkar, Anindya; Paruya, Dipak Kumar; Yao, Yi-Feng; Li, Cheng-Sen

2015-04-01

Pollen, phytoliths and δ 13C signatures of soil organic matter from two fluvial sedimentary sequences of the Darjeeling foothill region, eastern Himalayas are used to portray palaeoclimatic oscillations and their impact on regional plant communities over the last ˜50 ka. Quantitative palaeoclimate estimation using coexistence approach on pollen data and other proxies indicate significant oscillations in precipitation during the late part of MIS 3 (46.4-25.9 ka), early and middle part of MIS 2 (25.9-15.6 ka), and 5.4 to 3.5 ka. Middle to late MIS 3 (ca 46.4-31 ka.) was characterized by a comparatively low monsoonal activity and slightly higher temperature than that during ca 31 ka onwards. Simultaneous expansion of deciduous trees and chloridoid grasses also imply a drier and warmer phase. Between 31 and 22.3 ka (late MIS 3 to mid-MIS 2), higher precipitation and a slightly cooler temperature led to an increase in evergreen elements over deciduous taxa and wet-loving panicoid grasses over dry-loving chloridoid grasses than earlier. After ca 22.3 ka, shrinking of forest cover, expansion of C4 chloridoid grasses, Asteraceae and Cheno-ams in the vegetation with lowering of temperature and precipitation characterized the onset of the LGM which continued till 18.3 ka. End of the LGM is manifested by a restoration in the forest cover and in the temperature and precipitation regime. Later, during 5.4 to 4.3 ka, a strong monsoonal activity supported a dense moist evergreen forest cover that subsequently declined during 4.3 to 3.5 ka. A further increase in deciduous elements and non-arboreals might be a consequence of reduced precipitation and higher temperature during this phase. A comparison between monsoonal rainfall, MAT and palaeoatmospheric CO2 with floral dynamics since last ˜50 ka indicates that these fluctuations in plant succession were mainly driven by monsoonal variations.

Interactions Between Asian Air Pollution and Monsoon System: South Asia (ROSES-2014 ACMAP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pan, Xiaohua; Chin, Mian; Tao, Zhining; Kim, Dongchul; Bian, Huisheng; Kucsera, Tom

2018-01-01

Asia's rapid economic growth over the past several decades has brought a remarkable increase in air pollution levels in that region. High concentrations of aerosols (also known as particulate matter or PM) from pollution sources pose major health hazards to half of the world population in Asia including South Asia. How do pollution and dust aerosols regulate the monsoon circulation and rainfall via scattering and absorbing solar radiation, changing the atmospheric heating rates, and modifying the cloud properties? We conducted a series of regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NUWRF) regional model with coupled aerosol-chemistry-radiation-microphysics processes over South Asia for winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons to address this question. This study investigates the worsening air quality problem in South Asia by focusing on the interactions between pollution and South Asian monsoon, not merely focusing on the increase of pollutant emissions.

Understanding the influence of topography on the dynamics of the North American monsoon in climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varuolo-Clarke, A. M.; Medeiros, B.; Reed, K. A.

2017-12-01

This project examines the influence of topography on the dynamics of the North American monsoon (NAM), including the genesis, peak, and demise of the monsoon. The monsoon season occurs from July to September in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico and is characterized by an increase in rainfall that accounts for 40-80% of the total annual rainfall. We use a simple "monsoon index" and show that simulations with the Community Atmosphere model capture the essential nature of the NAM. Comparing standard low-resolution (1o latitude x 1o longitude) simulations where the topography over North America is either retained or removed we evaluate the models' representations of the NAM. To understand the origin of differences between the simulations we analyze the moist static energy budget in the monsoon region. Our preliminary results from simulations with realistic topography indicate that the simulated NAM is driven by locally-generated convection, with advection processes being secondary; this is consistent with the NAM being a result of the thermal contrast between the hot, summertime continent and relatively cool ocean. When topography is removed the simulated NAM will be relatively weak and be driven primarily by locally-generated convection. A better understanding of the monsoon dynamics and the impact topography has on these dynamics will allow for a more accurate representation of the monsoon in projections of future climate.

Changes in Vegetation Cover over the Indian Peninsula and Implications for the Indian Monsoon System during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponton, C.; Giosan, L.; Eglinton, T. I.; Scientific Team Of Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01

2010-12-01

The Asian monsoon, composed of the East Asian and Indian systems affects the most densely populated region of the planet. The Indian monsoon is one of the most energetic and dynamic climate processes that occur today on Earth, but we still do not have a detailed understanding of large-scale hydrological variability over the Indian peninsula during the Holocene. Previous studies of the salinity variations in the Bay of Bengal indicate that during the last glacial maximum the Indian monsoon system was weaker and precipitation over the area was lower than today. Here we provide the first high resolution Holocene climate record for central India measured on a sediment core recovered offshore the mouth of the Godavari River, on the eastern Indian shelf. The δ13C composition of leaf waxes preserved in the core shows a large range of variation suggesting a major change in the relative proportions of C3 and C4 plant-derived wax inputs during the Holocene. Using reported values for modern plants, we estimate that C3 plants suffered a reduction in the Godavari basin from ~45% to ~15% over the Holocene. Negative excursions of δ13C leaf wax suggest that short-lived events of C3 plant resurgence (and inferred higher precipitation) punctuated the process of aridification of peninsular India. The vegetation structure and inferred aridity in central India is consistent with reconstructions of Indian monsoon precipitation and wind intensity in the Arabian Sea, salinity in the Bay of Bengal, and precipitation proxy records for the East Asian monsoon, suggesting a coherent behavior of the Asian monsoon system over the Holocene.

Late Pleistocene - Holocene development of the Tista megafan (West Bengal, India): 10Be cosmogenic and IRSL age constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrahami, Rachel; Huyghe, Pascale; van der Beek, Peter; Lowick, Sally; Carcaillet, Julien; Chakraborty, Tapan

2018-04-01

The Himalayan proximal foreland is characterized by Quaternary megafans, of which the formational mechanisms remain debated. The Tista megafan spreads over more than 16,000 km2 from the mountain front, where it is strongly incised, to the confluence of the Tista River with the Jamuna/Brahmaputra River, and stores sediments produced in the Sikkim Himalaya. We propose a scenario for the late Pleistocene - Holocene development of the Tista megafan based on new 10Be cosmogenic and Infra-Red Stimulated Luminescence (IRSL) age constraints, and discuss the main potential controls on its evolution. We suggest that two distal lobes developed successively downstream from a common proximal lobe. Deposition in the proximal lobe took place since at least ∼135 ka and incision began at 3.7-0.7+1.0 ka. The western distal lobe of the megafan was deposited early in the history of the megafan, when the Sikkim Himalaya catchment was drained by a tributary of the Ganga River, and was abandoned in the early Holocene (10-11 ka). The eastern, recent (<1 ka), and little incised lobe was built after the main Tista drainage system shifted eastward through nodal avulsions and can be considered still active. Approximately synchronous incision between terraces in the hinterland and megafan surfaces suggests that incision propagated rapidly through the system. Our data do not evidence a direct link between incicion and tectonic processes. Aggradation and incision episodes appear more compatible with a climatic control, through changes in monsoon intensity and associated sediment flux. Depositional episodes in the Tista megafan, as elsewhere in the Himalaya and its foreland, appear to correlate with periods of strong monsoon precipitation and associated high sediment flux toward the foreland. Abandonment and incision of megafan surfaces and hinterland terraces appear associated to both the onset and the ending of phases of strong monsoon precipitation, during which the balance between water and sediment discharge changes rapidly.

Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability During the Common Era: Implications on the Ancient Civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pothuri, D.

2017-12-01

Indian monsoon rainfall variability was reconstructed during last two millennia by using the δ18Ow from a sediment core in the Krishna-Godavari Basin. Higher δ18Ow values during Dark Age Cold Period (DACP) (1550 to 1250 years BP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) (700 to 200 years BP) represent less Indian monsoon rainfall. Whereas during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (1200 to 800 years BP) and major portion of Roman Warm Period (RWP) 2000 to 1550 years BP) document more rainfall in the Indian subcontinent as evident from lower δ18Ow values. A significant correlation exist between the Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperature (SST) and Indian monsoon proxy (i.e. δ18Ow), which suggests that; (i) the forcing mechanism of the Indian monsoon rainfall variability during last two millennia was controlled by the thermal contrast between the Indian Ocean and Asian Land Mass, and (ii) the evaporation processes in the BoB and associated SST are strongly coupled with the Indian Monsoon variability over the last two millennia.

A meteorological and chemical overview of the DACCIWA field campaign in West Africa in June-July 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Deroubaix, Adrien; Morris, Eleanor; Tocquer, Flore; Evans, Mat J.; Flamant, Cyrille; Gaetani, Marco; Lavaysse, Christophe; Mari, Celine; Marsham, John H.; Meynadier, Rémi; Affo-Dogo, Abalo; Bahaga, Titike; Brosse, Fabien; Deetz, Konrad; Guebsi, Ridha; Latifou, Issaou; Maranan, Marlon; Rosenberg, Philip D.; Schlueter, Andreas

2017-09-01

In June and July 2016 the Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project organised a major international field campaign in southern West Africa (SWA) including measurements from three inland ground supersites, urban sites in Cotonou and Abidjan, radiosondes, and three research aircraft. A significant range of different weather situations were encountered during this period, including the monsoon onset. The purpose of this paper is to characterise the large-scale setting for the campaign as well as synoptic and mesoscale weather systems affecting the study region in the light of existing conceptual ideas, mainly using objective and subjective identification algorithms based on (re-)analysis and satellite products. In addition, it is shown how the described synoptic variations influence the atmospheric composition over SWA through advection of mineral dust, biomass burning and urban pollution plumes.The boreal summer of 2016 was characterised by Pacific La Niña, Atlantic El Niño and warm eastern Mediterranean conditions, whose competing influences on precipitation led to an overall average rainy season. During the relatively dusty pre-onset Phase 1 (1-21 June 2016), three westward-propagating coherent cyclonic vortices between 4 and 13° N modulated winds and rainfall in the Guinea coastal area. The monsoon onset occurred in connection with a marked extratropical trough and cold surge over northern Africa, leading to a breakdown of the Saharan heat low and African easterly jet and a suppression of rainfall. During this period, quasi-stationary low-level vortices associated with the trough transformed into more tropical, propagating disturbances resembling an African easterly wave (AEW). To the east of this system, moist southerlies penetrated deep into the continent. The post-onset Phase 2 (22 June-20 July 2016) was characterised by a significant increase in low-level cloudiness, unusually dry conditions and strong northeastward dispersion of urban pollution plumes in SWA as well as rainfall modulation by westward-propagating AEWs in the Sahel. Around 12-14 July 2016 an interesting and so-far undocumented cyclonic-anticyclonic vortex couplet crossed SWA. The anticyclonic centre had its origin in the Southern Hemisphere and transported unusually dry air filled with aged aerosol into the region. During Phase 3 (21-26 July 2016), a similar vortex couplet slightly farther north created enhanced westerly moisture transports into SWA and extraordinarily wet conditions, accompanied by a deep penetration of the biomass burning plume from central Africa. Finally, a return to more undisturbed monsoon conditions took place during Phase 4 (27-31 July 2016). The in-depth synoptic analysis reveals that several significant weather systems during the DACCIWA campaign cannot be attributed unequivocally to any of the tropical waves and disturbances described in the literature and thus deserve further study.

Impact of East Asian Summer Monsoon on Surface Ozone Pattern in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shu; Wang, Tijian; Huang, Xing; Pu, Xi; Li, Mengmeng; Chen, Pulong; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Wang, Minghuai

2018-01-01

Tropospheric ozone plays a key role in regional and global atmospheric and climate systems. In East Asia, ozone can be affected both in concentration level and spatial pattern by typical monsoon climate. This paper uses three different indices to identify the strength of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and explores the possible impact of EASM intensity on the ozone pattern through synthetic and process analysis. The difference in ozone between three strong and three weak monsoon years was analyzed using the simulations from regional climate model RegCM4-Chem. It was found that EASM intensity can significantly influence the spatial distribution of ozone in the lower troposphere. When EASM is strong, ozone in the eastern part of China (28°N - 42° N) is reduced, but the inverse is detected in the north and south. The surface ozone difference ranges from -7 to 7 ppbv during the 3 months (June to August) of the EASM, with the most obvious difference in August. Difference of the 3 months' average ozone ranges from -3.5 to 4 ppbv. Process analysis shows that the uppermost factor controlling ozone level during summer monsoon seasons is the chemistry process. Interannual variability of EASM can impact the spatial distribution of ozone through wind in the lower troposphere, cloud cover, and downward shortwave radiation, which affect the transport and chemical formation of ozone. The phenomenon should be addressed when considering the interaction between ozone and the climate in East Asia region.

Long-range prediction of the low-frequency mode in the low-level Indian monsoon circulation with a simple statistical method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang; Yen, Ming-Cheng; Wu, Kuang-Der; Ng, Thomas

1992-08-01

The time evolution of the Indian monsoon is closely related to locations of the northward migrating monsoon troughs and ridges which can be well depicted with the 30 60day filtered 850-mb streamfunction. Thus, long-range forecasts of the large-scale low-level monsoon can be obtained from those of the filtered 850-mb streamfunction. These long-range forecasts were made in this study in terms of the Auto Regressive (AR) Moving-Average process. The historical series of the AR model were constructed with the 30 60day filtered 850-mb streamfunction [˜ψ (850mb)] time series of 4months. However, the phase of the last low-frequency cycle in the ˜ψ (850mb) time series can be skewed by the bandpass filtering. To reduce this phase skewness, a simple scheme is introduced. With this phase modification of the filtered 850-mb streamfunction, we performed the pilot forecast experiments of three summers with the AR forecast process. The forecast errors in the positions of the northward propagating monsoon troughs and ridges at Day 20 are generally within the range of 12days behind the observed, except in some extreme cases.

Microbial community dynamics and taxon-specific phytoplankton production in the Arabian Sea during the 1995 monsoon seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, S. L.; Landry, M. R.; Christensen, S.; Garrison, D.; Gowing, M. M.; Bidigare, R. R.; Campbell, L.

As part of the US JGOFS Arabian Sea Process Study in 1995, we investigated temporal and spatial patterns in microbial dynamics and production during the late Southwest (SW) Monsoon (August-September 1995) and the early Northeast (NE) Monsoon (November-December 1995) seasons using the seawater-dilution technique. Experiments were coupled with population assessments from high-performance liquid chromatography, flow cytometry, and microscopy to estimate further taxon-specific phytoplankton growth, grazing and production. Dilution estimates of total primary production varied substantially, from 7 to 423 μg C l -1 d -1, and were generally in good agreement with rate estimates from 14C-uptake incubations. Both primary production and secondary bacterial production were, on average, 2.5× higher during the SW Monsoon than the NE Monsoon. Relative to the total community, photosynthetic prokaryotes contributed 23% and 53% of production during the SW and NE Monsoons, respectively. Prochlorococcus spp. production was well balanced by grazing losses, while >50% of Synechococcus spp. production during the SW Monsoon appeared to escape grazing by protists. Diatoms comprised >30% of primary production at a high biomass station during the SW Monsoon but <30% at all stations during the NE Monsoon. Growth rates of Synechococcus spp. and diatoms appeared to be limited by inorganic nitrogen concentrations, while Prochlorococcus spp., dinoflagellates and Phaeocystis spp. were not. Losses to protistan grazing were strongly correlated with phytoplankton biomass and production. Despite sufficient prey levels, protistan biomass was modest and constant across the region during both seasons. Of the larger taxa, diatoms were grazed the least effectively with only 50% of daily production accounted for by protistan grazing. Combined estimates of protistan and mesozooplankton grazing at upwelling stations during the SW Monsoon leave ˜10% of primary production unaccounted for and available for sinking and/or lateral advection. Similarly high rates of net production at northern coastal stations during the NE Monsoon suggest that this area also may contribute to regional export flux.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar projects. Starting a Monsoon Mission experiment or research project? Let us know so we can add it to our Modeling Center NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court

Sediment dispersal pattern in the Bay of Bengal - evidence for commencement of Bengal Fan sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishna, K. S.; Ismaiel, M.; Karlapati, S.; Gopala Rao, D.; Mishra, J.; D, S.

2015-12-01

The sediment succession in the Bay of Bengal records signatures corresponding to India-Asia collision, regional climate, and erosional processes of the Himalayan orogeny and the Indian subcontinent. The Bengal Fan - world's largest submarine fan - has been long studied to understand the link between the Himalayan tectonics and Asian monsoon climate, but early phase information of the Himalaya erosion is not retrieved from the Indian Ocean due to lack of deep-core samples. Therefore, the missing corresponding signals hampered the understanding of coupled processes between tectonics, climate and erosion. Seismic reflection profiles and industrial drill wells from the western Bay of Bengal show two different modes of sediment deposition: initially Indian peninsular rivers discharged sediments to the ocean at a rate ~20 m/m.y. until Oligocene-Miocene time (~23 Ma) with the exception of two fairly-enhanced sediment pulses from 65 to 54 and again from 34 to 23 Ma; since 23 Ma the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers added huge volumes of sediments to the bay with variable rates range from 40 to >1000 m/m.y. Using seismic stratigraphic technique we found a distinct increase in sediment discharge (~140 m/m.y.) at 23 Ma is an important age marker for the onset of Bengal Fan sedimentation as a coupled connection between the Himalayan tectonics and Asian climate. Further rise in sedimentation rate during the period 6.8 - 0.8 Ma is surprisingly not in agreement with the decrease in sediment rate reported at ODP Leg 116 sites in the distal Bengal Fan, but coincident with the change in monsoon intensity. Here we provide well constrained ages for the growth of the Bengal Fan, which can serve as benchmark for interactions between the Himalayan exhumation and Asian climate.

Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annamalai, H.; Liu, P.

2005-04-01

Diagnostics from observed precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis products reveal that after the 1976-77 climate shift in the Pacific there was a dramatic change in the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to El Niño, particularly during the months of July and August. Based on 1950-75 (PRE76) and 1977-2001 (POST76) El Niño composites: the western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) was stronger than normal in both periods; the ISM was weaker than normal during the entire monsoon season in PRE76, but in POST76 was weaker only during the onset and withdrawal phases. In terms of observed sea surface temperature (SST) during July-August, the major differences between the two periods are the presence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the intensity of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific in POST76. The effect of these differences on the ISM is investigated in a suite of experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) that has a realistic monsoon precipitation climatology.Separate ten-member ensemble simulations with the AGCM were conducted for PRE76 and POST76 El Niño events with SST anomalies inserted as follows: (i) tropical Indo-Pacific (TIP), (ii) tropical Pacific only (TPO), and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean only (TIO). Qualitatively, TPO solutions reproduce the observed differences in the monsoon response in both periods. Specifically, during July-August of POST76 the cold SST anomalies in conjunction with remote subsidence suppress precipitation (3-5 mm day-1) over the maritime continent and equatorial central Indian Ocean. Inclusion of Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the TIP runs further suppresses precipitation over the entire equatorial Indian Ocean. The low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby-wave response to these convective anomalies increase the south-westerlies over the northern Indian Ocean, and favour a stronger ISM and WNPM. During PRE76 the non-occurrence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo-Pacific warm pool reinforces El Niño's suppression on the ISM.In contrast, TIO solutions show a reduced ISM during July-August of POST76; the solutions, however, show a significant effect on the WNPM during both PRE76 and POST76 periods. It is argued that SSTs over the entire tropical Indo-Pacific region need to be considered to understand the El Niño Southern Oscillation-monsoon linkage, and to make predictions of rainfall over India and the western North Pacific.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K. -M.; Ramanathan, V.

Asian monsoons and aerosols have been studied extensively which are intertwined in influencing the climate of Asia. This paper provides a comprehensive review of ample studies on Asian aerosol, monsoon and their interactions. The region is the primary source of aerosol emissions of varies species, influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes. On continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulation. Themore » atmospheric thermodynamic state may also be altered by the aerosol serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of numerous monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcings of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.« less

Characterization of aerosols over the Indochina peninsula from satellite-surface observations during biomass burning pre-monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Ritesh; Hsu, N. Christina; Eck, Thomas F.; Holben, Brent N.; Janjai, Serm; Jantarach, Treenuch; Tsay, Si-Chee; Lau, William K.

2013-10-01

This paper presents characterization of aerosols over the Indochina peninsular regions of Southeast Asia during pre-monsoon season from satellite and ground-based radiometric observations. Our analysis focuses on the seasonal peak period in aerosol loading and biomass burning, prior to the onset of the Asian summer monsoon, as observed in the inter-annual variations of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and fire count data from MODIS. Multi-year (2007-2011) analysis of spaceborne lidar measurements, from CALIOP, indicates presence of aerosols mostly within boundary layer, however extending to elevated altitudes to ˜4 km over northern regions of Indochina, encompassing Myanmar, northern Thailand and southern China. In addition, a strong gradient in aerosol loading and vertical distribution is observed from the relatively clean equatorial conditions to heavy smoke-laden northern regions (greater aerosol extinction and smaller depolarization ratio). Based on column-integrated ground-based measurements from four AERONET locations distributed over Thailand, the regional aerosol loading is found to be significantly absorbing with spectral single scattering albedo (SSA) below 0.91 ± 0.02 in the 440-1020 nm range, with lowest seasonal mean SSA (most absorbing aerosol) over the northern location of Chiang Mai (SSA ˜ 0.85) during pre-monsoon season. The smoke-laden aerosol loading is found to exhibit a significant diurnal pattern with higher AOD departures during early morning observations relative to late afternoon conditions (peak difference of more than 15% amplitude). Finally, satellite-based aerosol radiative impact is assessed using CERES shortwave Top-of-Atmosphere flux, in conjunction with MODIS AOD. Overall, a consistency in the aerosol-induced solar absorption characteristic is found among selected regions from ground-based sunphotometer-derived spectral SSA retrievals and satellite-based radiative forcing analysis.

An 8,600 year lacustrine record of summer monsoon variability from Yunnan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillman, Aubrey L.; Abbott, Mark B.; Finkenbinder, Matthew S.; Yu, JunQing

2017-10-01

Interactions between the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) are complex, yet needed to provide a long-term perspective of precipitation patterns in southeast Asia. Here we present an 8600-year sediment record from Xingyun Lake in Yunnan, China, a transitional zone that receives inputs of precipitation from both the ISM and EASM. Analysis of stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) from authigenic calcite yields a semi-quantitative estimate of the timing and magnitude of lake level change that reflects changes in effective moisture from monsoon variability. Between 8600 and 6900 years BP, δ18O values are stable and low, indicating high lake levels and overflowing conditions resulting from a strong ISM. After 6900 years BP, δ18O values shift to higher values, which we suggest reflects a weakening of the ISM caused by declining summer insolation. The most substantial positive shift in isotopes occurs from 5000 to 4300 years BP and is coincident with aridity in India and the Tibetan Plateau. Other proxy records indicate increased ENSO variability and a southward shift in the ITCZ, which has an effect on the strength and onset of the ISM and may account for this change in hydrologic balance. After 4300 years BP, δ18O values continue to increase reflecting a gradual drying trend, but increases are smaller than prior periods, in part due to lake bathymetry that limits the potential for isotopic enrichment driven by evaporation. The relative influence of the ISM and EASM in the Yunnan Province of China during the Holocene remains a topic for future study, but our results suggest the predominance of the ISM and a possible connection to ENSO patterns on centennial to millennial timescales.

Evaluation of Boreal Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability in the GASS-YOTC Multi-Model Physical Processes Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani, N. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.

2014-12-01

While the boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal variability (BSISV) exerts profound influence on the south Asian monsoon, the capability of present day dynamical models in simulating and predicting the BSISV is still limited. The global model evaluation project on vertical structure and diabatic processes of the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is a joint venture, coordinated by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) MJO Task Force and GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) program, for assessing the model deficiencies in simulating the ISV and for improving our understanding of the underlying processes. In this study the simulation of the northward propagating BSISV is investigated in 26 climate models with special focus on the vertical diabatic heating structure and clouds. Following parallel lines of inquiry as the MJO Task Force has done with the eastward propagating MJO, we utilize previously proposed and newly developed model performance metrics and process diagnostics and apply them to the global climate model simulations of BSISV.

GCM Simulation of the Large-scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sud, Yogesh; Walker, Gregory K.

2002-01-01

In this study, we have applied GCM water vapor tracers (WVT) to simulate the North American water cycle. WVTs allow quantitative computation of the geographical source of water for precipitation that occurs anywhere in the model simulation. This can be used to isolate the impact that local surface evaporation has on precipitation, compared to advection and convection. A 15 year 1 deg, 1.25 deg. simulation has been performed with 11 global and 11 North American regional WVTs. Figure 1 shows the source regions of the North American WVTs. When water evaporates from one of these predefined regions, its mass is used as the source for a distinct prognostic variable in the model. This prognostic variable allows the water to be transported and removed (precipitated) from the system in an identical way that occurs to the prognostic specific humidity. Details of the model are outlined by Bosilovich and Schubert (2002) and Bosilovich (2002). Here, we present results pertaining to the onset of the simulated North American monsoon.

The Eocene climate of China, the early elevation of the Tibetan Plateau and the onset of the Asian Monsoon.

PubMed

Wang, Qing; Spicer, Robert A; Yang, Jian; Wang, Yu-Fei; Li, Cheng-Sen

2013-12-01

Eocene palynological samples from 37 widely distributed sites across China were analysed using co-existence approach to determine trends in space and time for seven palaeoclimate variables: Mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month, mean temperature of the coldest month, mean annual range of temperature, mean maximum monthly precipitation and mean minimum monthly precipitation. Present day distributions and observed climates within China of the nearest living relatives of the fossil forms were used to find the range of a given variable in which a maximum number of taxa can coexist. Isotherm and isohyet maps for the early, middle and late Eocene were constructed. These illustrate regional changing patterns in thermal and precipitational gradients that may be interpreted as the beginnings of the modern Asian Monsoon system, and suggest that the uplift of parts of the Tibetan Plateau appear to have taken place by the middle to late Eocene. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Differential impact of monsoon and large amplitude internal waves on coral reef development in the Andaman Sea.

PubMed

Wall, Marlene; Schmidt, Gertraud Maria; Janjang, Pornpan; Khokiattiwong, Somkiat; Richter, Claudio

2012-01-01

The Andaman Sea and other macrotidal semi-enclosed tropical seas feature large amplitude internal waves (LAIW). Although LAIW induce strong fluctuations i.e. of temperature, pH, and nutrients, their influence on reef development is so far unknown. A better-known source of disturbance is the monsoon affecting corals due to turbulent mixing and sedimentation. Because in the Andaman Sea both, LAIW and monsoon, act from the same westerly direction their relative contribution to reef development is difficult to discern. Here, we explore the framework development in a number of offshore island locations subjected to differential LAIW- and SW-monsoon impact to address this open question. Cumulative negative temperature anomalies - a proxy for LAIW impact - explained a higher percentage of the variability in coral reef framework height, than sedimentation rates which resulted mainly from the monsoon. Temperature anomalies and sediment grain size provided the best correlation with framework height suggesting that so far neglected subsurface processes (LAIW) play a significant role in shaping coral reefs.

Electrical conductivity sensors as a means to quantify hydrologic connectivity of desert riverscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeger, K. L.; Olden, J. D.

2010-12-01

Fundamental to addressing issues in the emerging fields of landscape conservation biogeography and genetics is an understanding of the physical processes, in particular hydrologic processes, under which that landscape is operating. In arid and semi-arid landscapes, however, quantifying the considerable spatial and temporal variability of streamflow patterns historically has been limited by the substantial physical effort and monetary cost required to install monitoring equipment. Recently, internally-recording temperature sensors have been modified to measure relative conductivity as an indicator for the onset and cessation of streamflow, providing an inexpensive method of quantifying the timing, duration, and frequency of surface flow that can be implemented at a broad spatial scale. In this study, we characterize surface water connectivity across several mountain watersheds as a means to understanding landscape-scale hydrologic connectivity important to aquatic biota, in particular, amphibians. In the semi-arid Huachuca mountain range of southeastern Arizona, USA, a total of 44 conductivity sensors were installed at approximately 2-km intervals throughout 8 canyons underlain by granite, limestone, and other sedimentary geologic units. Sensor locations represent a range of hydrologic and geomorphic settings including perennial, intermittent, and ephemeral reaches within bedrock, travertine, sand-bedded and coarser-grained channel morphologies. Sensors were deployed in early April 2010 at a 15-minute logging interval and data from 31 sensors were retrieved in mid-August 2010; a time period representing the cessation of the spring snow runoff period and approximately the middle of the North American monsoon period. Cessation and onset of surface flow were identified by a large negative or positive increase in the slope (first derivative) of the data record, respectively. The sensors indicate a distinct springtime stream drying (mid-April to early May 2010) demarcating the cessation of snowmelt runoff, and clear catchment-wide connectivity of streamflow in response to monsoon precipitation beginning in July 2010. As expected, streamflow is closely coupled to local precipitation, although the occurrence of perennial reaches in locations underlain by limestone in several of the canyons indicate potentially strong bedrock controls on the hydrology. These data will be applied to a collaborative study of landscape genetics of amphibian metapopulations in the Huachuca Mountains that will assess their vulnerability to climate change.

Human used upper montane ecosystem in the Horton Plains, central Sri Lanka - a link to Lateglacial and early Holocene climate and environmental changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premathilake, Rathnasiri

2012-09-01

This study utilizes radiocarbon-dated pollen, spores, Sphagnum spp. macrofossils and total organic carbon proxies to examine variability of past climate, environment and human activity in montane rainforest, grassland and wetland of the Horton Plains (HP), central Sri Lanka since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM is largely characterized by grasslands and xerophytic herbs dominated open habitats. Arid-LGM punctuated climatic ameliorations, which took place in short episodes. Humans appear to have reached the HP ecosystem after 18,000 cal yrs BP occasionally. The first Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) induced changes in South West Monsoon (SWM) rains occurred at low latitudes between 16,200 and 15,900 cal yrs BP suggesting an onset of monsoon rains. After this event, monsoon rains weakened for several millennia except the period 13,700-13,000 cal yrs BP, but human activity seems to have continued with biomass burning and clearances by slash and burn. Very large size grass pollen grains, which are morphologically similar to pollen from closer forms of Oryza nivara, were found after 13,800 cal yrs BP. Early Holocene extreme and abrupt climate changes seem to have promoted the forms of O. nivara populations in association with humans. New data from the HP would therefore be most interesting to investigate the dispersal and use of domesticated rice in South Asia.

Sensitivity of mesquite shrubland CO2 exchange to precipitation in contrasting landscape settings.

PubMed

Potts, Daniel L; Scott, Russell L; Cable, Jessica M; Huxman, Travis E; Williams, David G

2008-10-01

In semiarid ecosystems, physiography (landscape setting) may interact with woody-plant and soil microbe communities to constrain seasonal exchanges of material and energy at the ecosystem scale. In an upland and riparian shrubland, we examined the seasonally dynamic linkage between ecosystem CO2 exchange, woody-plant water status and photosynthesis, and soil respiration responses to summer rainfall. At each site, we compared tower-based measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) with ecophysiological measurements among velvet mesquite (Prosopis velutina Woot.) in three size classes and soil respiration in sub-canopy and inter-canopy micro-sites. Monsoonal rainfall influenced a greater shift in the magnitude of ecosystem CO2 assimilation in the upland shrubland than in the riparian shrubland. Mesquite water status and photosynthetic gas exchange were closely linked to the onset of the North American monsoon in the upland shrubland. In contrast, the presence of shallow alluvial groundwater in the riparian shrubland caused larger size classes of mesquite to be physiologically insensitive to monsoonal rains. In both shrublands, soil respiration was greatest beneath mesquite canopies and was coupled to shallow soil moisture abundance. Physiography, through its constraint on the physiological sensitivity of deeply rooted woody plants, may interact with plant-mediated rates of soil respiration to affect the sensitivity of semiarid-ecosystem carbon exchange in response to episodic rainfall.

Representation of ocean-atmosphere processes associated with extended monsoon episodes over South Asia in CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohan, T. S.; Annamalai, H.; Marx, Larry; Huang, Bohua; Kinter, James

2018-02-01

In the present study, we analyze 30-years output from free run solutions of CFSv2 coupled model to assess the model’s representation of extended (>7 days) active and break monsoon episodes over south Asia. Process based diagnostics is applied to the individual and composite events to identify precursor signals in both ocean and atmospheric variables. Our examination suggests that CFSv2, like most coupled models, depict systematic biases in variables important for ocean-atmosphere interactions. Nevertheless, model solutions capture many aspects of monsoon extended break and active episodes realistically, encouraging us to apply process-based diagnostics. Diagnostics reveal that sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the northern Bay of Bengal where the climatological mixed-layer is thin, lead the in-situ precipitation anomalies by about 8 (10) days during extended active (break) episodes, and the precipitation anomalies over central India by 10-14 days. Mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates for a close correspondence between SST tendency and net surface heat flux (Q_net). MSE budgets indicate that horizontal moisture advection to be a coherent precursor signal ( 10 days) during both extended break (dry advection) and active (moist advection) events. The lead timings in these precursor signals in CFSv2 solutions will be of potential use to monitor and predict extended monsoon episodes. Diagnostics, however, also indicate that for about 1/3 of the identified extended break and active episodes, inconsistencies in budget terms suggest precursor signals could lead to false alarms. Apart from false alarms, compared to observations, CFSv2 systematically simulates a greater number of extended monsoon active episodes.

A Carbonate Platform Record of Neogene Paleoenvironmental Changes in the Indian Ocean (Maldives)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betzler, C.; Kroon, D.; Lindhorst, S.; Reolid, J.; Lüdmann, T.; Eberli, G. P.

2017-12-01

The Maldives Inner Sea is a natural sediment trap which preserves a 25 Myrs record of paleoenvironmental changes in the Indian Ocean. This encompasses records of past changes in sea level, productivity, and circulation, but also of the dust influx. As such, the sedimentary succession, which has been cored during IODP Expedition 359, provides the opportunity to study the evolution and the dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon. This amends the reconstruction developed in other, mainly siliciclastic records such as in the Bengal and Indus fan deposits. Seismic-, downhole-, and core data show that windblown dust has been deposited in the Maldives since 22 Ma. However, from 22 to 13 Ma the sedimentation in the Maldives under a weak monsoon was mainly controlled by sea level changes. At 13 Ma this situation changed, and wind driven currents started to control sedimentation, as reflected by the onset of widespread drift deposits. This is interpreted to reflect a more vigorous atmospheric circulation. Linked to the current onset, there was a rise of productivity and a coeval expansion of the oxygen minimum zone. Changes in magnetic susceptibility during the Late Miocene and Pliocene, as imaged in downhole magnetic susceptibility logs are interpreted to reflect fluctuations of the dust influx, mainly from the Indian subcontinent. The combination of XRF data and non-carbonate grain-size data allows a further and detailed reconstruction of variations in the dust influx and bottom-current changes for the last 4 Myrs.

Deciphering groundwater quality for irrigation and domestic purposes - a case study in Suri I and II blocks, Birbhum District, West Bengal, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Shreya; Nag, S. K.

2015-07-01

Assessment of the hydrochemical characteristics of water and aquifer hydraulic properties is important for groundwater planning and management in the study area. It is not only the basic need for human existence but also a vital input for all development activities. The present hydro-geochemical study of groundwater samples from the Suri I and II blocks of Birbhum district, West Bengal (23.76 ∘-23.99 ∘N; 87.42 ∘-87.64 ∘E) was carried out to assess their suitability for agricultural, domestic and drinking purposes. For this study, samples were collected from 26 locations during the post-monsoon and pre-monsoon sessions spanning over 2012 and 2013. Groundwater samples were analyzed for their physical and chemical properties using standard laboratory methods. Physical and chemical parameters of groundwater such as pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, Na, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, Cl, HCO3, SO4 and F were determined. Various water quality indices like SAR, SSP, PI, RSC, MAR and KR have been calculated for each water sample to identify the irrigational suitability standard. According to most of these parameters, the groundwater has been found to be well to moderately suitable for irrigation. In the post-monsoon session exceptionally high RSC values for around 80% samples indicate an alkaline hazard to the soil. The ion balance histogram for post-monsoon indicates undesirable ion balance values according to fresh water standards whereas in pre-monsoon, the samples show good ion balance in water. For determination of the drinking suitability standard of groundwater, three parameters have been considered - total hardness (TH), Piper's trilinear diagram and water quality index study. Groundwater of the present study area has been found to be moderately-hard to hard during both sampling sessions and hence poses no health risk which could arise due to excess consumption of calcium or magnesium. Hydrogeochemical facies in the form of Piper's trilinear diagram plot which helps in identification of the water `type' which can render a particular taste or odour to water, indicates that groundwater in the study area is majorly of CaMgHCO 3 and NaHCO 3 type (fresh type) during both post-monsoon and pre-monsoon sessions barring a couple of samples which are of CaMgSO 4/CaMgClSO 4 type in pre-monsoon. Water quality index study reveals that close to 90% of the water samples are suitable for drinking during post-monsoon compared to pre-monsoon during which period only 60% of water samples fall under the suitable drinking water category. Gibbs' diagrams, which help in identification of natural processes controlling hydrogeochemistry of groundwater indicates that for both post-monsoon and pre-monsoon sessions, the overall hydrogeochemistry of the study area is dominated by rock-water interaction processes.

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2003-01-01

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the key scientific problems facing monsoon climates and provide examples of common monsoon features, and possible monsoon induced teleconnections linking different parts of the world.

Numerical study of summertime dynamical and physical changes in the southern South China Sea due to the monsoons and its impacts on primary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daryabor, Farshid; Abu Samah, Azizan; Hai Ooi, See

2016-04-01

The ecosystem off the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia is controlled by multiple physical processes during the monsoons (winter and summer) , including the air-sea interaction (such as net heat and surface freshwater fluxes), the small-scale eddies off the southern South China Sea (SSCS), and the monsoon wind induced coastal upwelling. Using high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), in-situ observations and remote sensing data, this paper attempts to study the hydrodynamics of the shelf and coastal processes as well as thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological seasonal cycle especially in the summer monsoon. In addition, we investigate its impacts on the spatial patterns of chlorophyll biomass which acts as a proxy for primary productivity in the SSCS. This study looks into not only the detailed small-scale-circulation such as localized eddies but also the link between the southern South China Sea and the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and the Java Sea. The flow through the Strait of Malacca and the Java Sea is not only important for navigational purpose but also has an influence on the seasonal spatial and temporal variations of primary productivity in the region. Keywords: southern South China Sea; summer monsoon; coastal upwelling; primary productivity

Predominant terminal electron accepting processes during organic matter degradation: Spatio-temporal changes in Ashtamudi estuary, Kerala, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Salom Gnana Thanga; Reshmi, R. R.; Hassan, S. Junaid; Nair, K. Deepa; Varma, Ajayakumar

2017-11-01

Anaerobic microbial communities in the anoxic zones degrade organic matter in estuarine sediments. Thermodynamic energy yield for the oxidation reactions with various electron acceptors decreases in the order of O2> NO3- > Mn4+> Fe3+> SO42- > CO2. The predominant terminal electron accepting (TEA) process has an influence on the biogeochemical cycles of nutrients as well as the production of important greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and methane from estuarine sediments. The research questions of this study were (1) what are the environmental factors (pH, salinity, organic carbon, sulphate, redox potential) explaining variability in TEA activities such as nitrate reduction rate (NRR), iron reduction rate (IRR), sulphate reduction rate (SRR) and methane production rate (MPR) and (2) which is the predominant TEA process during degradation of organic matter. To determine the TEA activities, sediment samples collected from 13 sampling stations of Ashtamudi estuary during monsoon 2014 and summer 2015 were incubated with sulphate depleted artificial seawater, under anaerobic conditions for 72 h, in microcosms. Spatial variations dominated temporal variations for environmental variables. Nevertheless, biogeochemical processes showed a distinct seasonal variation. Total TEA activity was higher during summer than monsoon, indicating the higher heterotrophic microbial activity favored by high temperature. Individually, SRR was the maximum during summer, while NRR, IRR and MPR were the maximum during monsoon. Sulphate reduction was observed to be the predominant electron accepting process in all sampling stations with cumulative values of 3125.79 and 4046.07 nmol cm-3 day-1 during monsoon and summer respectively. This was followed by NRR, IRR and MPR. Although thermodynamically more favorable, NRR could not predominate due to scarcity of nitrate in sediments. Nevertheless, two-fold and five-fold increase in methanogenesis and denitrification were observed respectively during monsoon in sampling stations, which cannot be ignored, owing to the importance of methane and nitrous oxide as a potent greenhouse gas.

Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.

2016-12-01

This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early spring. This study suggests the cooling and drying of atmosphere induced by burned areas caused the strengthening of subsidence during pre-onset and weakening of upward atmospheric motion during onset and mature stages of the monsoon leading to a waning of convective instability and precipitation. Monthly mid-tropospheric vertical wind showed a strengthening of downward motion in winter and spring seasons, and weakening of upward movement during the rainy months. Furthermore, precipitation energy analysis revealed that most of precipitation decrease originated from convective events, which supports the hypothesis of reduced convective instability due to wildfires.

How does the anthropogenic activity affect the spring discharge?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Yonghong; Zhang, Juan; Wang, Jiaojiao; Li, Ruifang; Hao, Pengmei; Zhan, Hongbin

2016-09-01

Karst hydrological process has largely been altered by climate change and human activity. In many places throughout the world, human activity (e.g. groundwater pumping and dewatering from mining) has intensified and surpassed climate change, where human activity becomes the primary factor that affects groundwater system. But it is still largely unclear how the human activity affects spring discharge in magnitude and periodicity. This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic activity on spring discharge, using the Xin'an Springs of China as an example. The Xin'an Spring discharge were divided into two time periods: the pre-development period from 1956 to 1971 and the post-development period from 1972 to 2013. We confirm the dividing time (i.e. 1971) of these two periods using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Then the wavelet transform and wavelet coherence were used to analyze the karst hydrological processes for the two periods respectively. We analyze the correlations of precipitation and the Xin'an spring discharge with the monsoons including the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the West North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) and the climate teleconnections including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively. The results indicated that the spring discharge was attenuated about 19.63% under the influence of human activity in the Xin'an Springs basin. However, human activity did not alter the size of the resonance frequencies between the spring discharge and the monsoons. In contrast, it reinforced the periodicities of the monsoons-driven spring discharge. It suggested that human has adapted to the major climate periodicities, and human activity had the same rhyme with the primary climate periodicity. In return, human activity enhances the correlation between the monsoons and the spring discharge.

Reviving the Ganges Water Machine: potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarasinghe, Upali Ananda; Muthuwatta, Lal; Surinaidu, Lagudu; Anand, Sumit; Jain, Sharad Kumar

2016-03-01

The Ganges River basin faces severe water challenges related to a mismatch between supply and demand. Although the basin has abundant surface water and groundwater resources, the seasonal monsoon causes a mismatch between supply and demand as well as flooding. Water availability and flood potential is high during the 3-4 months (June-September) of the monsoon season. Yet, the highest demands occur during the 8-9 months (October-May) of the non-monsoon period. Addressing this mismatch, which is likely to increase with increasing demand, requires substantial additional storage for both flood reduction and improvements in water supply. Due to hydrogeological, environmental, and social constraints, expansion of surface storage in the Ganges River basin is problematic. A range of interventions that focus more on the use of subsurface storage (SSS), and on the acceleration of surface-subsurface water exchange, has long been known as the Ganges Water Machine (GWM). The approach of the GWM for providing such SSS is through additional pumping and depleting of the groundwater resources prior to the onset of the monsoon season and recharging the SSS through monsoon surface runoff. An important condition for creating such SSS is the degree of unmet water demand. The paper shows that the potential unmet water demand ranging from 59 to 124 Bm3 year-1 exists under two different irrigation water use scenarios: (i) to increase irrigation in the Rabi (November-March) and hot weather (April-May) seasons in India, and the Aman (July-November) and Boro (December-May) seasons in Bangladesh, to the entire irrigable area, and (ii) to provide irrigation to Rabi and the hot weather season in India and the Aman and Boro seasons in Bangladesh to the entire cropped area. However, the potential for realizing the unmet irrigation demand is high only in 7 sub-basins in the northern and eastern parts, is moderate to low in 11 sub-basins in the middle, and has little or no potential in 4 sub-basins in the western part of the Ganges basin. Overall, a revived GWM plan has the potential to meet 45-84 Bm3year-1 of unmet water demand.

A numerical study of the South China Sea Warm Current during winter monsoon relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Cong; Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Bi, Congcong; Li, Ruixiang; Zhang, Cunjie; Shen, Biao; Wan, Kai

2018-03-01

Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) during winter monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during winter, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong winter monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50-and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during winter monsoon relaxation.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2017-08-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2018-06-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

Seasonality of Precipitation over Himalayan Watersheds in CORDEX South Asia and their Driving CMIP5 Experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

ul Hasson, Shabeh

Since the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments exhibit limited skill in reproducing the statistical properties of prevailing precipitation regimes over the major Himalayan watersheds (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong), this study evaluates the anticipated added skill of their dynamically refined simulations performed under the framework of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments for South Asia (CX-SA). For this, the fidelity of eight CX-SA experiments against their six driving CMIP5 experiments is assessed for the historical period (1971–2005) in terms of time-dependent statistical properties (onset/retreat timings and rapid fractional accumulation—RFA) of the dominant summer monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR). Further,more » a self-defining seasonality index (SI), which is a product of precipitation and the distance of its actual distribution relative to its uniform distribution (relative entropy—RE), has been computed for MPR, westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. The time evolution of precipitation, RE and SI has also been analyzed. Results suggest that CX-SA experiments simulate even higher wet biases than their driving CMIP5 experiments over all study basins, mainly due to higher wet biases simulated over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. Most of the CX-SA experiments suggest unrealistic timings of the monsoon onset that are far earlier than their driving CMIP5 experiments for all basins. Generally, CX-SA experiments feature higher underestimation of RFA slope, RE and SI, distancing their driving CMIP5 experiments farther from observations. Interestingly, regardless of the diverse skill of CMIP5 experiments, their fine scale CX-SA experiments exhibit quite a similar skill when downscaled by the same regional climate model (RCM), indicating RCM’s ability to considerably alter the driving datasets. Lastly, these findings emphasize on improving the fidelity of simulated precipitation regimes over the Himalayan watersheds by exploiting the potential of RCMs in term of microphysics, resolutions and convective closures, and preferably, on resolving the crucial fine scale processes further down to their representative (meso-to-local) scales.« less

Seasonality of Precipitation over Himalayan Watersheds in CORDEX South Asia and their Driving CMIP5 Experiments

DOE PAGES

ul Hasson, Shabeh

2016-10-02

Since the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments exhibit limited skill in reproducing the statistical properties of prevailing precipitation regimes over the major Himalayan watersheds (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong), this study evaluates the anticipated added skill of their dynamically refined simulations performed under the framework of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments for South Asia (CX-SA). For this, the fidelity of eight CX-SA experiments against their six driving CMIP5 experiments is assessed for the historical period (1971–2005) in terms of time-dependent statistical properties (onset/retreat timings and rapid fractional accumulation—RFA) of the dominant summer monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR). Further,more » a self-defining seasonality index (SI), which is a product of precipitation and the distance of its actual distribution relative to its uniform distribution (relative entropy—RE), has been computed for MPR, westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. The time evolution of precipitation, RE and SI has also been analyzed. Results suggest that CX-SA experiments simulate even higher wet biases than their driving CMIP5 experiments over all study basins, mainly due to higher wet biases simulated over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. Most of the CX-SA experiments suggest unrealistic timings of the monsoon onset that are far earlier than their driving CMIP5 experiments for all basins. Generally, CX-SA experiments feature higher underestimation of RFA slope, RE and SI, distancing their driving CMIP5 experiments farther from observations. Interestingly, regardless of the diverse skill of CMIP5 experiments, their fine scale CX-SA experiments exhibit quite a similar skill when downscaled by the same regional climate model (RCM), indicating RCM’s ability to considerably alter the driving datasets. Lastly, these findings emphasize on improving the fidelity of simulated precipitation regimes over the Himalayan watersheds by exploiting the potential of RCMs in term of microphysics, resolutions and convective closures, and preferably, on resolving the crucial fine scale processes further down to their representative (meso-to-local) scales.« less

Convective Systems over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, W.-K.; Shie, C.-L.; Simpson, J.; Braun, S.; Johnson, R. H.; Ciesielski, P. E.

2003-12-01

The two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to simulate two South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) convective periods [18 26 May (prior to and during the monsoon onset) and 2 11 June (after the onset of the monsoon) 1998]. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum are used as the main forcing in governing the GCE model in a semiprognostic manner. The June SCSMEX case has stronger forcing in both temperature and water vapor, stronger low-level vertical shear of the horizontal wind, and larger convective available potential energy (CAPE).The temporal variation of the model-simulated rainfall, time- and domain-averaged heating, and moisture budgets compares well to those diagnostically determined from soundings. However, the model results have a higher temporal variability. The model underestimates the rainfall by 17% to 20% compared to that based on soundings. The GCE model-simulated rainfall for June is in very good agreement with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), precipitation radar (PR), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Overall, the model agrees better with observations for the June case rather than the May case.The model-simulated energy budgets indicate that the two largest terms for both cases are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening). These two terms are opposite in sign, however. The model results also show that there are more latent heat fluxes for the May case. However, more rainfall is simulated for the June case. Net radiation (solar heating and longwave cooling) are about 34% and 25%, respectively, of the net condensation (condensation minus evaporation) for the May and June cases. Sensible heat fluxes do not contribute to rainfall in either of the SCSMEX cases. Two types of organized convective systems, unicell (May case) and multicell (June case), are simulated by the model. They are determined by the observed mean U wind shear (unidirectional versus reverse shear profiles above midlevels).Several sensitivity tests are performed to examine the impact of the radiation, microphysics, and large-scale mean horizontal wind on the organization and intensity of the SCSMEX convective systems.

Characterizing intra-annual density fluctuations using fine-spatial resolution blue intensity profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babst, Flurin; Wright, William; Szejner, Paul; Wells, Leon; Belmecheri, Soumaya; Monson, Russell

2016-04-01

Rapidly rising evaporative demand threatens forests in semi-arid areas around the world, but the timing of stem growth response to drought is often coarsely known. This is partly due to a shortage of sub-annual growth records, particularly outside the Mediterranean region where most intra-annual density fluctuation (IADF) chronologies are based. We anticipate that an automated, cost-effective, and easily implementable method to characterize IADFs could foster more widespread development of sub-annual chronologies. Here, we applied a peak detection algorithm to fine-spatial resolution blue intensity (BI) profiles of Ponderosa pine tree rings from two sites located in neighboring mountain ranges in southern Arizona (~300 m elevation difference). This automated procedure proved reliable to isolate and characterize IADFs, thus offering an efficient and objective alternative to visual identification. Out of seven investigated BI parameters, peak height, width, and area showed satisfactory chronology statistics. We assessed the response of these BI and radial growth parameters to six monthly-resolved climate variables and to the onset date of the North American summer monsoon (NAM). The NAM is an atmospheric mode that provides a clear time marker for the termination of a pre-summer drought period (May-June) causing regular IADFs in trees growing near the dry margin of their distribution range. We observed divergent water limitation at the two sites, despite comparable site characteristics. Radial growth at the lower-elevation site depended mainly on winter precipitation, whereas the higher site relied on spring and monsoon precipitation. The pre-summer drought period indeed promoted IADFs in early ring portions at both sites. Yet, IADFs at the higher site were only formed, if spring was sufficiently humid to assume enough radial growth. Late-position IADFs were caused by a weak monsoon and additionally promoted by favorable conditions towards the end of the growing season. The contrast between sites is likely attributable to a three-week difference in the growing season onset, emphasizing the importance of growth phenology for drought impacts on forests in the US Southwest.

Evaluating the Effects of Fire on Semi-Arid Savanna Ecosystem Productivity Using Integrated Spectral and Gas Exchange Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raub, H. D.; Jimenez, J. R.; Gallery, R. E.; Sutter, L., Jr.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Smith, W. K.

2017-12-01

Drylands account for 40% of the land surface and have been identified as increasingly important in driving interannual variability of the land carbon sink. Yet, understanding of dryland seasonal ecosystem productivity dynamics - termed Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) - is limited due to complex interactions between vegetation health, seasonal drought dynamics, a paucity of long-term measurements across these under-studied regions, and unanticipated disturbances from varying fire regimes. For instance, fire disturbance has been found to either greatly reduce post-fire GPP through vegetation mortality or enhance post-fire GPP though increased resource availability (e.g., water, light, nutrients, etc.). Here, we explore post-fire ecosystem recovery by evaluating seasonal GPP dynamics for two Ameriflux eddy covariance flux tower sites within the Santa Rita Experimental Range of southeastern Arizona: 1) the US-SRG savanna site dominated by a mix of grass and woody mesquite vegetation that was burned in May 2017, and 2) the US-SRM savanna site dominated by similar vegetation but unburned for the full measurement record. For each site, we collected leaf-level spectral and gas exchange measurements, as well as leaf-level chemistry and soil chemistry to characterize differences in nutrient availability and microbial activity throughout the 2017 growing season. From spectral data, we derived and evaluated multiple common vegetation metrics, including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photochemical reflectivity index (PRI), near-infrared reflectance (NIRv), and MERIS terrestrial chlorophyll index (MTCI). Early results suggest rates of photosynthesis were enhanced at the burned site, with productivity increasing immediately following the onset of monsoonal precipitation; whereas initial photosynthesis at the unburned site remained relatively low following first monsoonal rains. MTCI values for burned vegetation appear to track higher levels of leaf-level nitrogen content upon monsoonal onset, but requires further validation by leaf-level chemistry. This work suggests that the integration of spectral, gas exchange, and soil measurements could be a powerful framework toward advancing our understanding of fire-ecosystem productivity feedbacks across spatiotemporal scales.

Understanding the West African Monsoon from the analysis of diabatic heating distributions as simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, G. M.; Peyrillé, P.; Roehrig, R.; Rio, C.; Caian, M.; Bellon, G.; Codron, F.; Lafore, J.-P.; Poan, D. E.; Idelkadi, A.

2017-03-01

Vertical and horizontal distributions of diabatic heating in the West African monsoon (WAM) region as simulated by four model families are analyzed in order to assess the physical processes that affect the WAM circulation. For each model family, atmosphere-only runs of their CMIP5 configurations are compared with more recent configurations which are on the development path toward CMIP6. The various configurations of these models exhibit significant differences in their heating/moistening profiles, related to the different representation of physical processes such as boundary layer mixing, convection, large-scale condensation and radiative heating/cooling. There are also significant differences in the models' simulation of WAM rainfall patterns and circulations. The weaker the radiative cooling in the Saharan region, the larger the ascent in the rainband and the more intense the monsoon flow, while the latitude of the rainband is related to heating in the Gulf of Guinea region and on the northern side of the Saharan heat low. Overall, this work illustrates the difficulty experienced by current climate models in representing the characteristics of monsoon systems, but also that we can still use them to understand the interactions between local subgrid physical processes and the WAM circulation. Moreover, our conclusions regarding the relationship between errors in the large-scale circulation of the WAM and the structure of the heating by small-scale processes will motivate future studies and model development.

Variability of terrigenous input to the Bay of Bengal for the last 80 kyr: Implications on the Indian monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panmei, Champoungam; Naidu, Pothuri Divakar; Naik, Sushant Suresh

2018-06-01

Oceanographic processes in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are strongly impacted by south-westerly and north-easterly winds of the Indian monsoon system during the summer and winter respectively. Variations in calcium carbonate (CaCO3) content and magnetic susceptibility (MS), along with Ba, Ti, and Al, were reconstructed for the past 80 kyr using a sediment core (MD 161/28) from the northern BoB in order to understand the changes in calcium carbonate deposition and MS signals associated with the Indian monsoon system. Our records infer monsoon-induced dilution through river discharges from different sediment provenance to be the main controlling factor of the CaCO3 variations at the core location. Generally lower CaCO3 content during stronger-southwest monsoon (SWM) interglacial periods (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a & 1, except 3) and higher CaCO3 content during weaker-SWM glacial periods (MIS 4 & 2) were documented. High MS correspond to MIS 4 & 2 of weakened SWM and strengthened northeast monsoon (NEM) periods caused due to enhanced sediment supply from the Peninsular Indian regions, whereas lower MS values correspond to MIS 5, 3 & 1 of strengthened SWM and weakened NEM derived through Ganges-Brahmaputra from the Himalaya Region. Thus, our records infer coupling of major rivers' discharges to the BoB with the SWM and NEM strengths, which has implications on the linkage with other climatic variations such as East Asian monsoon and Northern Hemisphere climate.

Detailed Analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Processes with Modern/High-Quality Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Kuo, Kwo-Sen; Mehta, Amita V.; Yang, Song

2007-01-01

We examine, in detail, Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall processes using modernhigh quality satellite precipitation measurements. The focus here is on measurements derived from three NASA cloud and precipitation satellite missionslinstruments (TRMM/PR&TMI, AQUNAMSRE, and CLOUDSATICPR), and a fourth TRMM Project-generated multi-satellite precipitation measurement dataset (viz., TRMM standard algorithm 3b42) -- all from a period beginning in 1998 up to the present. It is emphasized that the 3b42 algorithm blends passive microwave (PMW) radiometer-based precipitation estimates from LEO satellites with infi-ared (IR) precipitation estimates from a world network of CEO satellites (representing -15% of the complete space-time coverage) All of these observations are first cross-calibrated to precipitation estimates taken from standard TRMM combined PR-TMI algorithm 2b31, and second adjusted at the large scale based on monthly-averaged rain-gage measurements. The blended approach takes advantage of direct estimates of precipitation from the PMW radiometerequipped LEO satellites -- but which suffer fi-om sampling limitations -- in combination with less accurate IR estimates from the optical-infrared imaging cameras on GEO satellites -- but which provide continuous diurnal sampling. The advantages of the current technologies are evident in the continuity and coverage properties inherent to the resultant precipitation datasets that have been an outgrowth of these stable measuring and retrieval technologies. There is a wealth of information contained in the current satellite measurements of precipitation regarding the salient precipitation properties of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Using different datasets obtained from the measuring systems noted above, we have analyzed the observations cast in the form of: (1) spatially distributed means and variances over the hierarchy of relevant time scales (hourly I diurnally, daily, monthly, seasonally I intra-seasonally, and inter-annually), (2) time series at these different time scales taken as area-averages over the hierarchy of relevant space scales (Indian sub-Division, Indian sub-continent, and Circumambient Indian Ocean), (3) principal autocorrelation and cross-correlation structures over various monsoon space-time domains, (4) diurnally modulated amplitude-phase properties of rain rates over different monsoon space-time domains, (5) foremost rain rate probability distributions intrinsic to monsoon precipitation, and (6) behavior of extreme events including occurrences of flood and drought episodes throughout the course of inter-annual monsoon processes.

Heavy metal concentration in groundwater from Besant Nagar to Sathankuppam, South Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridhar, S. G. D.; Sakthivel, A. M.; Sangunathan, U.; Balasubramanian, M.; Jenefer, S.; Mohamed Rafik, M.; Kanagaraj, G.

2017-12-01

The assessment of groundwater quality is an obligatory pre-requisite to developing countries like India with rural-based economy. Heavy metal concentration in groundwater from Besant Nagar to Sathankuppam, South Chennai was analyzed to assess the acquisition process. The study area has rapid urbanization since few decades, which deteriorated the condition of the aquifer of the area. Totally 30 groundwater samples were collected during pre-monsoon (June 2014) and post-monsoon (January 2015) from the same aquifer to assess the heavy metal concentration in groundwater. Groundwater samples were analyzed for heavy metals such as Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr, Co and Mn using atomic absorption spectrophotometry (AAS). Correlation matrix revealed that there is no significant correlation between heavy metals and other parameters during pre-monsoon except EC with Cr but Fe and Zn have good positive correlation during post-monsoon.

Type-segregated aerosol effects on regional monsoon activity: A study using ground-based experiments and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vijayakumar, K.; Devara, P. C. S.; Sonbawne, S. M.

2014-12-01

Classification of observed aerosols into key types [e.g., clean-maritime (CM), desert-dust (DD), urban-industrial/biomass-burning (UI/BB), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and mixed-type aerosols (MA)] would facilitate to infer aerosol sources, effects, and feedback mechanisms, not only to improve the accuracy of satellite retrievals but also to quantify the assessment of aerosol radiative impacts on climate. In this paper, we report the results of a study conducted in this direction, employing a Cimel Sun-sky radiometer at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India during 2008 and 2009, which represent two successive contrasting monsoon years. The study provided an observational evidence to show that the local sources are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), with strong seasonality closely linked to the monsoon annual rainfall cycle over Pune, a tropical urban station in India. The results revealed the absence of CM aerosols in the pre-monsoon as well as in the monsoon seasons of 2009 as opposed to 2008. Higher loading of dust aerosols is observed in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons of 2009; majority may be coated with fine BC aerosols from local emissions, leading to reduction in regional rainfall. Further, significant decrease in coarse-mode AOD and presence of carbonaceous aerosols, affecting the aerosol-cloud interaction and monsoon-rain processes via microphysics and dynamics, is considered responsible for the reduction in rainfall during 2009. Additionally, we discuss how optical depth, contributed by different types of aerosols, influences the distribution of monsoon rainfall over an urban region using the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) aerosol reanalysis. Furthermore, predictions of the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) simulations combined with HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) cluster model are also discussed in support of the observed features.

Tree Ring Analyses Unlock a Century of Hydroclimatic Variability Across the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunello, C. F.; Andermann, C.; Helle, G.; Comiti, F.; Tonon, G.; Hovius, N.

2017-12-01

Climate change has altered precipitation patterns and impacted the spatio-temporal distribution and availability of water in high mountain environments. For example, intensification of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) increases the potential for moisture laden air to breach the Himalayan orographic barrier and penetrate into the arid, elevated southern Tibetan Plateau, with geomorphological and hydrological consequences. Such trends should be considered against a solid background, but a consistent record of centennial monsoon dynamics in the trans-Himalayan region has never been developed. Instrumental data are sparse and only cover a limited time period as well as remotely sensed information. Meanwhile, models have major systematic bias and substantial uncertainty in reproducing ISM interannual variability. In this context, hydro-climatic proxies, such as oxygen stable isotope ratios in cellulose of tree rings, are a valuable source of data, especially because isotope mass spectroscopy can unlock yearly resolved information by tracing the isotopic signature (18O) stored within each growth ring. Here we present three centennial records of monsoon dynamics, along a latitudinal transect, spanning a pronounced precipitation gradient across the Himalayan orogen. Three sites were selected along the Kali Gandaki valley in the central Himalayas (Nepal), this valley connects the wet, monsoon dominated Gangetic plain with the arid Tibetan Plateau. Our transect covers the sensitive northern end of the precipitation gradient, located in the upper part of the catchment. Our results show that inter-annual variation of monsoon strength can be reconstructed by tree ring δ18O. The inferred monsoon dynamics are compared against independent constraints on precipitation, snow cover and river discharge. Different water sources contribute disproportionally at the three sites, reflecting spatial and temporal shifts of the westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon. These two dominant sources of humidity are complemented by recycled continental circulation characterizing pre-monsoon rainfall. Our yearly resolved records of monsoon strength provide insights into anomalous hydro-climatic years and highlight the importance of precipitation variability for the hydrological processes in high mountain regions.

Controls on the East Asian monsoon during the last glacial cycle, based on comparison between Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohling, E. J.; Liu, Q. S.; Roberts, A. P.; Stanford, J. D.; Rasmussen, S. O.; Langen, P. L.; Siddall, M.

2009-12-01

Previous studies have suggested a sound chronological correlation between the Hulu Cave record (East Asian monsoon) and Greenland ice-core records, which implies a dominant control of northern hemisphere climate processes on monsoon intensity. We present an objective, straightforward statistical evaluation that challenges this generally accepted paradigm for sub-orbital variability. We propose a more flexible, global interpretation, which takes into account a broad range of variability in the signal structures in the Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records, rather than a limited number of major transitions. Our analysis employs the layer-counted Greenland Ice-Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05), which was developed for Greenland records and has since been applied - via methane synchronisation - to the high-resolution δ 18O ice series from EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML). The GICC05 chronology allows these ice-core records to be compared to the U-Th dated Hulu Cave record within relatively narrow (˜3%) bounds of age uncertainty. Following previous suggestions, our proposed interpretation suggests that the East Asian monsoon is influenced by a combination of northern hemisphere 'pull' (which is more intense during boreal warm periods), and southern hemisphere 'push' (which is more intense monsoon during austral cold periods). Our analysis strongly suggests a dominant control on millennial-scale monsoon variability by southern hemisphere climate changes during glacial times when the monsoon is weak overall, and control by northern hemisphere climate changes during deglacial and interglacial times when the monsoon is strong. The deduced temporally variable relationship with southern hemisphere climate records offers a statistically more plausible reason for the apparent coincidence of major East Asian monsoon transitions with northern hemisphere (Dansgaard-Oeschger, DO) climate events during glacial times, than the traditional a priori interpretation of strict northern hemisphere control.

Land-Climate Feedbacks in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asharaf, Shakeel; Ahrens, Bodo

2016-04-01

In an attempt to identify how land surface states such as soil moisture influence the monsoonal precipitation climate over India, a series of numerical simulations including soil moisture sensitivity experiments was performed. The simulations were conducted with a nonhydrostatic regional climate model (RCM), the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) in climate mode (CCLM) model, which was driven by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. Results showed that pre-monsoonal soil moisture has a significant impact on monsoonal precipitation formation and large-scale atmospheric circulations. The analysis revealed that even a small change in the processes that influence precipitation via changes in local evapotranspiration was able to trigger significant variations in regional soil moisture-precipitation feedback. It was observed that these processes varied spatially from humid to arid regions in India, which further motivated an examination of soil-moisture memory variation over these regions and determination of the ISM seasonal forecasting potential. A quantitative analysis indicated that the simulated soil-moisture memory lengths increased with soil depth and were longer in the western region than those in the eastern region of India. Additionally, the subsequent precipitation variance explained by soil moisture increased from east to west. The ISM rainfall was further analyzed in two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES: B1) and the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: RCP4.5). To that end, the CCLM and its driving global-coupled atmospheric-oceanic model (GCM), ECHAM/MPIOM were used in order to understand the driving processes of the projected inter-annual precipitation variability and associated trends. Results inferred that the projected rainfall changes were the result of two largely compensating processes: increase of remotely induced precipitation and decrease of precipitation efficiency. However, the complementing precipitation components and their simulation uncertainties rendered climate projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall as an ongoing, highly ambiguous challenge for both the GCM and the RCM.

Nocturnal low-level jet and low-level cloud occurrence over Southern West Africa during DACCIWA campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dione, Cheikh; Lohou, Fabienne; Lothon, Marie; Kaltoff, Norbert; Adler, Bianca; Babić, Karmen; Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Xabier

2017-04-01

During the summer monsoon period in West Africa, a nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ) is frequently observed and is associated with the formation of a low-level deck of stratus or stratocumulus clouds over the southern domain of this region. The understanding of the mechanisms controlling the diurnal cycle of the low-level cloud (LLC) is one of the goals of the DACCIWA (Dynamics-aerosol-chemistry-cloud interactions in West Africa) project. During the ground campaign, which took place in June-July 2016, numerous instruments devoted to document the atmospheric boundary-layer dynamics and thermodynamics, clouds, aerosols and precipitation were deployed at Kumasi (Ghana), Savè (Benin) and Ile-Ife (Nigeria) supersites. Several parameters can influence the LLC formation: these are the large-scale conditions, but also local parameters such as stability, the interaction between Monsoon and Harmattan flows and turbulence. It has been pointed out in previous studies that the NLLJ plays a key role in LLC formation. Therefore, based on 49 nights of observations, our study focuses on the possible link between NLLJ and the formation, evolution and dissipation of the LLC over Savè. The characteristics of LLCs (onset, evolution and dissipation time, base height and thickness) are investigated using data from the ceilometer, infrared cloud camera, and frequent and normal radiosoundings. The UHF wind profiler data are used to estimate the occurrence of the NLLJ as well as the depth of the monsoon flow.

Assessment of Flood Disaster Impacts in Cambodia: Implications for Rapid Disaster Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin

2016-04-01

Disaster monitoring systems can provide near real time estimates of population and infrastructure affected by sudden onset natural hazards. This information is useful to decision makers allocating lifesaving resources following disaster events. Floods are the world's most common and devastating disasters (UN, 2004; Doocy et al., 2013), and are particularly frequent and severe in the developing countries of Southeast Asia (Long and Trong, 2001; Jonkman, 2005; Kahn, 2005; Stromberg, 2007; Kirsch et al., 2012). Climate change, a strong regional monsoon, and widespread hydropower construction contribute to a complex and unpredictable regional hydrodynamic regime. As such, there is a critical need for novel techniques to assess flood impacts to population and infrastructure with haste during and following flood events in order to enable governments and agencies to optimize response efforts following disasters. Here, we build on methods to determine regional flood extent in near real time and develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts of flooding in Cambodia. Software developed on cloud based, distributed processing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is used to demonstrate spatial and numerical estimates of population, households, roadways, schools, hospitals, airports, agriculture and fish catch affected by severe monsoon flooding occurring in the Cambodian portion of Lower Mekong River Basin in 2011. Results show modest agreement with government and agency estimates. Maps and statistics generated from the system are intended to complement on the ground efforts and bridge information gaps to decision makers. The system is open source, flexible, and can be applied to other disasters (e.g. earthquakes, droughts, landslides) in various geographic regions.

Monsoon Variability in the Arabian Sea from Enhanced and Standard Horizontal Resolution Coupled Climate Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClean, J.; Veneziani, C.; Maltrud, M. E.; Taylor, M.; Bader, D. C.; Branstetter, M. L.; Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.

2016-02-01

The circulation of the upper ocean in the Arabian Sea switches direction seasonally due to the change in direction of the prevailing winds associated with the Indian Monsoon. Predictability of the monsoon circulation, however, is uncertain due to incomplete understanding of the physical processes operating on the monsoon and other time scales, particularly interannual and intraseasonal. We use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with enhanced horizontal resolution in each of its components relative to standard coupled climate model resolution, to better understand these time scale interactions. A standard resolution CESM counterpart is used to assess how horizontal resolution impacts the depiction of these processes. In the enhanced resolution case, 0.25° Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) is coupled to, among other components, the tripolar nominal 0.1° Parallel Ocean Program 2 (POP2). The fine resolution CESM simulation was run for 85 years; constant 1850 preindustrial forcing was used throughout the run, allowing us to isolate internal variability of the coupled system. Model parameters were adjusted ("tuned") to produce an acceptably small top of the atmosphere radiation imbalance. The reversal of the Somali Current (SC), the western boundary current off northeast Africa, has typically been associated with that of the monsoon. The SC reverses from southwestward in boreal winter to northeastward in summer; coastal upwelling is induced by the summer monsoonal winds. Recently it has been shown from new observations that the SC starts to reverse prior to the monsoon switch. Westward propagating Rossby waves have been implicated as responsible for the early SC reversal. We will discuss the sequencing of remote and local forcing on the timing of the spring inter-monsoonal switch in the direction of the SC and the appearance of the Great Whirl off the Oman Coast. Particularly, we consider how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) acts to modify the seasonal strength and variability of the western boundary current system including upwelling. We look for a connection between interannual upwelling variability and that of rainfall off the west coast of India. As well, we examine changes due to the IOD in the upper ocean temperature and salinity structure along the Rossby wave propagation route in the Arabian Sea.

Monsoon Forecasting based on Imbalanced Classification Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Troncoso, Alicia; Asencio-Cortes, Gualberto; Vega, Inmaculada; Gallego, David

2017-04-01

Monsoonal systems are quasiperiodic processes of the climatic system that control seasonal precipitation over different regions of the world. The Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) is one of those monsoons and it is known to have a great impact both over the global climate and over the total precipitation of very densely populated areas. The interannual variability of the WNPSM along the last 50-60 years has been related to different climatic indices such as El Niño, El Niño Modoki, the Indian Ocean Dipole or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Recently, a new and longer series characterizing the monthly evolution of the WNPSM, the WNP Directional Index (WNPDI), has been developed, extending its previous length from about 50 years to more than 100 years (1900-2007). Imbalanced classification techniques have been applied to the WNPDI in order to check the capability of traditional climate indices to capture and forecast the evolution of the WNPSM. The problem of forecasting has been transformed into a binary classification problem, in which the positive class represents the occurrence of an extreme monsoon event. Given that the number of extreme monsoons is much lower than the number of non-extreme monsoons, the resultant classification problem is highly imbalanced. The complete dataset is composed of 1296 instances, where only 71 (5.47%) samples correspond to extreme monsoons. Twenty predictor variables based on the cited climatic indices have been proposed, and namely, models based on trees, black box models such as neural networks, support vector machines and nearest neighbors, and finally ensemble-based techniques as random forests have been used in order to forecast the occurrence of extreme monsoons. It can be concluded that the methodology proposed here reports promising results according to the quality parameters evaluated and predicts extreme monsoons for a temporal horizon of a month with a high accuracy. From a climatological point of view, models based on trees show that the index of the El Niño Modoki in the months previous to an extreme monsoon acts as its best predictor. In most cases, the value of the Indian Ocean Dipole index acts as a second order classifier. But El Niño index, more frequently, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, only in one case, do also modulate the intensity of the WNPSM in some cases.

Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hsu, Christina N.; Holben, Brent N.

2010-01-01

In Asian monsoon countries, such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious, due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and.property with devastating societal impacts. Historically, air-pollution and monsoons research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly. Fundamentally, aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects cif suspended particles in the atmosphere (direct effect) and/or by interfering and changing: the cloud and precipitation formation processes (indirect effect). Based on their optical properties, aerosols can be classified into two types.: those that absorb solar radiation, and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface, causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential, Absorbing aerosols, however, in addition to cooling the surface, can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating, however, may induce rising motion, enhance low-level moisture, convergence and, hence, increases rainfall, The latent heating from enhanced rainfall may excite feedback processes in the large-scale circulation, further amplify.the initial response to aerosol heating and producing more rain. Additionally, aerosols can increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount and decrease coalescence and collision rates, leading to reduced precipitation. However, in the presence of increasing moist and warm air, the reduced coalescence/collision may lead to supercooled drops at higher altitudes where ice precipitation falls and melts. The latent heat release from freezing aloft and melting below implies greater upward heat transport in polluted clouds and invigorate deep convection. In this way, aerosols may lead to increased local convection. Hence, depending on the ambient large-scale conditions and dynamical feedback processes, aerosols' effect on precipitation can be positive, negative or mixed. In the Asian monsoon and adjacent regions, the aerosol forcing and responses of the water cycle are even more complex, Both direct and indirect effects may take place locally and simultaneously, interacting with each other. in addition to local effects, monsoon rainfall may be affected by aerosols transported from other regions and intensified through large-scale circulation and moisture feedback. Thus, dust transported by the large-scale circulation from the adjacent deserts to northern India may affect rainfall over the Bay of Bengal; sulphate and black carbon front industrial pollution in central, southern China and northern India may affect the rainfall regime over the Korean peninsula and Japan; organic and black carbon front biomass burning from Indo-China may modulate the pre-monsoon rainfall regime over southern China and coastal regions, contributing to variability in differential heating and cooling of the atmosphere and to the land-sea thermal contrast. During the pre-monsoon season and monsoon breaks, it has been suggested that radiative forcing by absorbing aerosols have nearly the same order of magnitude as the forcing due to latent heating from convection and surface fluxes. The magnitude of the total aerosol radiative cooling due to sulphates and soot is of the order of 20-40 W/m2 over the Asian monsoon land region in the pre-monsoon season, compared to about 1-2 W/m2 for global warng. However, the combined forcing at the surface and in the atmosphere, including all species. if aerosols, and details of aerosol mixing, and impacts on the energy and water cycles in the monsoon land regions, are not well known.

Climate and land use controls over terrestrial water use efficiency in monsoon Asia.

Treesearch

Hanqin Tian; Chaoqun Lu; Guangsheng Chen; Xiaofeng Xu; Mingliang Liu; et al

2011-01-01

Much concern has been raised regarding how and to what extent climate change and intensive human activities have altered water use efficiency (WUE, amount of carbon uptake per unit of water use) in monsoon Asia. By using a process-based ecosystem model [dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM)], we examined effects of climate change, land use/cover change, and land...

Principle Component Analysis of the Evolution of the Saharan Air Layer and Dust Transport: Comparisons between a Model Simulation and MODIS Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, S.; Colarco, P. R.; Dessler, A.

2006-01-01

The onset and evolution of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) episodes during June-September 2002 are diagnosed by applying principal component analysis to the NCEP reanalysis temperature anomalies at 850 hPa, where the largest SAL-induced temperature anomalies are located. The first principal component (PC) represents the onset of SAL episodes, which are associated with large warm anomalies located at the west coast of Africa. The second PC represents two opposite phases of the evolution of the SAL. The positive phase of the second PC corresponds to the southwestward extension of the warm anomalies into the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, and the negative phase corresponds to the northwestward extension into the subtropical to mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean and the southwest Europe. A dust transport model (CARMA) and the MODIS retrievals are used to study the associated effects on dust distribution and deposition. The positive (negative) phase of the second PC corresponds to a strengthening (weakening) of the offshore flows in the lower troposphere around 10deg - 20degN, causing more (less) dust being transported along the tropical to subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. The variation of the offshore flow indicates that the subseasonal variation of African Easterly Jet is associated with the evolution of the SAL. Significant correlation is found between the second PC time series and the daily West African monsoon index, implying a dynamical linkage between West African monsoon and the evolution of the SAL and Saharan dust transport.

Precipitation recycling as a mechanism for ecoclimatological stability through local and non-local interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Francina

This study is the first to analyze the mechanisms that drive precipitation recycling variability at the daily to intraseasonal timescale. A new Dynamic Precipitation Recycling model is developed which, unlike previous models, includes the moisture storage term in the equation of conservation of atmospheric moisture. As shown using scaling analysis, the moisture storage term is non-negligible at small time scales, so the new model enables us to analyze precipitation recycling variability at shorter timescales than traditional models. The daily to intraseasonal analysis enables us to uncover key relationships between recycling and the moisture and energy fluxes. In the second phase of this work, a spatiotemporal analysis of daily precipitation recycling is performed over two regions of North America: the Midwestern United States, and the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) region. These regions were chosen because they present contrasting land-atmosphere interactions. Different physical mechanisms drive precipitation recycling in each region. In the Midwestern United States, evapotranspiration is not significantly affected by soil moisture anomalies, and there is a high recycling ratio during periods of reduced total precipitation. The reason is that, during periods of drier atmospheric conditions, transpiration will continue to provide moisture to the overlying atmosphere and contribute to total rainfall. Consequently, precipitation recycling variability in not driven by changes in evapotranspiration. Precipitable water, sensible heat and moisture fluxes are the main drivers of recycling variability in the Midwest. However, the drier soil moisture conditions over the NAMS region limit evapotranspiration, which will drive recycling variability. In this region, evapotranspiration becomes an important contribution to precipitation after Monsoon onset when total precipitation and evapotranspiration are highest. The precipitation recycling process in the NAMS region relocates moisture from regions of high evapotranspiration like the seasonally dry tropical forests of Mexico to drier regions downwind. During long monsoons, when soil moisture is abundant for a prolonged period of time, precipitation recycling significantly contributes to precipitation during periods of reduced total rainfall. In both the moisture abundant Midwestern region and the drier NAMS region, precipitation recycling plays an important role in maintaining a favorable hydroclimatological environment for vegetation.

The northward shift of the Tibetan Plateau as an important factor for understanding East Asian climate during Cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ran; Jiang, Dabang; Ramstein, Gilles; Zhang, Zhongshi; Lippert, Peter C.; Yu, Entao

2017-04-01

Previous climate modeling studies suggest that the surface uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau (TP) is a crucial parameter for the onset and enhancement of the East Asian monsoon during the Cenozoic. However, most of these studies have only considered the Himalaya-TP in its present location despite numerous geophysical studies that reconstruct the Himalaya-TP 10° or more of latitude to the south during the early Paleogene. We have designed a series of climate simulations that account for not only changes in the surface elevation of the Himalaya-TP, but also the latitudinal distribution of this regionally high elevation. Here we demonstrate that the East Asian climate strongly depends on the latitude of the Himalaya-TP. The northward motion of the Himalaya-TP likely contribute to the reorganization atmospheric circulation in East Asia, thereby leading to intensified inland Asian aridity and enhanced monsoon climate over East Asia. Moreover, our simulations also bring new constrains on the southern margin of a modern-elevation proto-Himalaya-TP in the Eocene.

Relationship of the South Asian Monsoon and Regional Drought with Distinct Equatorial Pacific SST Patterns on Interannual and Decadal Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, M.; Ummenhofer, C.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2014-12-01

The Asian monsoon system influences the lives of over 60% of the planet's population, with widespread socioeconomic effects resulting from weakening or failure of monsoon rains. Spatially broad and temporally extended drought episodes have been known to dramatically influence human history, including the Strange Parallels Drought in the mid-18th century. Here, we explore the dynamics of sustained monsoon failure using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas - a high-resolution network of hydro-climatically sensitive tree-ring records - and a 1300-year pre-industrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Spatial drought patterns in the instrumental and model-based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during years with extremely weakened South Asian monsoon are similar to those reconstructed during the Strange Parallels Drought in the MADA. We further explore how the large-scale Indo-Pacific climate during weakened South Asian monsoon differs between interannual and decadal timescales. The Strange Parallels Drought pattern is observed during March-April-May primarily over Southeast Asia, with decreased precipitation and reduced moisture fluxes, while anomalies in June-July-August are confined to the Indian subcontinent during both individual and decadal events. Individual years with anomalous drying exhibit canonical El Niño conditions over the eastern equatorial Pacific and associated shifts in the Walker circulation, while decadal events appear to be related to anomalous warming around the dateline in the equatorial Pacific, typical of El Niño Modoki events. The results suggest different dynamical processes influence drought at different time scales through distinct remote ocean influences.

Meta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Goswami, Sayantika; Das, Debanjana; Middey, Anirban

2014-05-01

Forecasting summer monsoon rainfall with precision becomes crucial for the farmers to plan for harvesting in a country like India where the national economy is mostly based on regional agriculture. The forecast of monsoon rainfall based on artificial neural network is a well-researched problem. In the present study, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India. The ACO technique belongs to swarm intelligence and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. ACO technique takes inspiration from the foraging behaviour of some ant species. The ants deposit pheromone on the ground in order to mark a favourable path that should be followed by other members of the colony. A range of rainfall amount replicating the pheromone concentration is evaluated during the summer monsoon season. The maximum amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season (June—September) is observed to be within the range of 7.5-35 mm during the period from 1998 to 2007, which is in the range 4 category set by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The result reveals that the accuracy in forecasting the amount of rainfall for the next day during the summer monsoon season using ACO technique is 95 % where as the forecast accuracy is 83 % with Markov chain model (MCM). The forecast through ACO and MCM are compared with other existing models and validated with IMD observations from 2008 to 2012.

Understanding the West African monsoon variability and its remote effects: an illustration of the grid point nudging methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bielli, Soline; Douville, Hervé; Pohl, Benjamin

2010-07-01

General circulation models still show deficiencies in simulating the basic features of the West African Monsoon at intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales. It is however, difficult to disentangle the remote versus regional factors that contribute to such deficiencies, and to diagnose their possible consequences for the simulation of the global atmospheric variability. The aim of the present study is to address these questions using the so-called grid point nudging technique, where prognostic atmospheric fields are relaxed either inside or outside the West African Monsoon region toward the ERA40 reanalysis. This regional or quasi-global nudging is tested in ensembles of boreal summer simulations. The impact is evaluated first on the model climatology, then on intraseasonal timescales with an emphasis on North Atlantic/Europe weather regimes, and finally on interannual timescales. Results show that systematic biases in the model climatology over West Africa are mostly of regional origin and have a limited impact outside the domain. A clear impact is found however on the eddy component of the extratropical circulation, in particular over the North Atlantic/European sector. At intraseasonal timescale, the main regional biases also resist to the quasi-global nudging though their magnitude is reduced. Conversely, nudging the model over West Africa exerts a strong impact on the frequency of the two North Atlantic weather regimes that favor the occurrence of heat waves over Europe. Significant impacts are also found at interannual timescale. Not surprisingly, the quasi-global nudging allows the model to capture the variability of large-scale dynamical monsoon indices, but exerts a weaker control on rainfall variability suggesting the additional contribution of regional processes. Conversely, nudging the model toward West Africa suppresses the spurious ENSO teleconnection that is simulated over Europe in the control experiment, thereby emphasizing the relevance of a realistic West African monsoon simulation for seasonal prediction in the extratropics. Further experiments will be devoted to case studies aiming at a better understanding of regional processes governing the monsoon variability and of the possible monsoon teleconnections, especially over Europe.

Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

2018-02-01

Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

Did opening of the South China Sea impact development of the Asian Monsoon? Results from Oligocene microfossils, IODP Site U1435, northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulhanek, Denise K.; Su, Xin; Li, Qianyu; Gregory, Mitch; Warny, Sophie; Clift, Peter D.

2016-04-01

Development of the Asian Monsoon is linked to uplift of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau in the Cenozoic, with good evidence for a strong monsoon system by the late Oligocene to early Miocene (e.g., Guo et al., 2002; Clift et al., 2008). However, Licht et al. (2014) suggested the presence of an Asian Monsoon in the late Eocene. Recent scientific ocean drilling in the Indian Ocean and surrounding marginal seas gives us the opportunity to test this hypothesis with newly recovered Paleogene sediment cores. International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 349 to the South China Sea recovered a 30 m section of primarily lower Oligocene nannofossil-rich claystone at Site U1435, located near the northern continent/ocean boundary. A thick sandstone unit devoid of typical marine microfossils underlies the marine claystone. The sandstone is interpreted as a deltaic or restricted marine deposit and is dated to the Eocene based on the presence of organic-walled palynomorphs, suggesting that a hiatus of several million years likely separates the sandstone below from the Oligocene marine claystone. This hiatus is interpreted as the breakup unconformity, with paleodepths in the South China Sea increasing during the Oligocene. Thus, this claystone should record if opening of the South China Sea during the early Oligocene influenced development of the Asian Monsoon. Combined calcareous nannofossil and planktonic foraminifer biostratigraphy indicates that the 30 m section is primarily early Oligocene in age (~33.5-30 Ma) and was deposited on the middle slope, with paleodepths >500 m. Stable oxygen isotopes from planktonic foraminifers become heavier up-hole, suggestive of cooling/deepening in the region, whereas carbon isotopes record variable conditions with no distinct maxima or minima. Calcareous nannoplankton primarily live in the upper 50 m of the ocean and are sensitive to sea-surface temperature and nutrient conditions, thus making them useful recorders of paleoceanographic conditions. Warm-water indicators such as Discoaster and Sphenolithus are relatively common throughout the interval, with a small increase in abundance near the top of the section. On the other hand, species sensitive to nutrient and/or salinity conditions, such as Helicosphaera and Braarudosphaera, vary in abundance throughout the section. These variations may be linked to changes in rainfall intensity and runoff/nutrient input from the adjacent continent, reflecting variations in the monsoon. These records, together with other Oligocene records from the northern South China Sea, should help to shed light on variations in the Asian Monsoon during the transition from Greenhouse to Icehouse conditions in the Oligocene. References: Clift, P.D., Hodges, K.V., Heslop, D., Hannigan, R., Van Long, H., and Calves, G., 2008. Correlation of Himalayan exhumation rates and Asian monsoon intensity. Nature Geoscience, 1: 875-880. Guo, Z.T., Ruddiman, W.F., Hao, Q.Z., Wu, H.B., Qiao, Y.S., Zhu, R.X., Peng, S.Z., Wei, J.J., Yuan, B.Y., and Liu, T.S., 2002. Onset of Asian desertification by 22 Myr ago inferred from loess deposits in China. Nature, 416: 159-163. Licht, A., van Cappelle, M., Abels, H.A., Ladant, J.-B., Trabucho-Alexandre, J., France-Lanord, C., Donnadieu, Y., Vandenberghe, J., Rigaudier, T., Lécuyer, C., Terry Jr., D., Adriaens, R., Boura, A., Guo, Z., Aung Naing Soe, Quade, J., Dupont-Nivet, and Jaeger, J.-J., 2014. Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world. Nature, 513: 501-506.

Identification of major sources controlling groundwater chemistry from a hard rock terrain — A case study from Mettur taluk, Salem district, Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasamoorthy, K.; Chidambaram, S.; Prasanna, M. V.; Vasanthavihar, M.; Peter, John; Anandhan, P.

2008-02-01

The study area Mettur forms an important industrial town situated NW of Salem district. The geology of the area is mainly composed of Archean crystalline metamorphic complexes. To identify the major process activated for controlling the groundwater chemistry an attempt has been made by collecting a total of 46 groundwater samples for two different seasons, viz., pre-monsoon and post-monsoon. The groundwater chemistry is dominated by silicate weathering and (Na + Mg) and (Cl + SO4) accounts of about 90% of cations and anions. The contribution of (Ca + Mg) and (Na + K) to total cations and HCO3 indicates the domination of silicate weathering as major sources for cations. The plot for Na to Cl indicates higher Cl in both seasons, derived from Anthropogenic (human) sources from fertilizer, road salt, human and animal waste, and industrial applications, minor representations of Na also indicates source from weathering of silicate-bearing minerals. The plot for Na/Cl to EC indicates Na released from silicate weathering process which is also supported by higher HCO3 values in both the seasons. Ion exchange process is also activated in the study area which is indicated by shifting to right in plot for Ca + Mg to SO4 + HCO3. The plot of Na-Cl to Ca + Mg-HCO3-SO4 confirms that Ca, Mg and Na concentrations in groundwater are derived from aquifer materials. Thermodynamic plot indicates that groundwater is in equilibrium with kaolinite, muscovite and chlorite minerals. Saturation index of silicate and carbonate minerals indicate oversaturation during pre-monsoon and undersaturation during post-monsoon, conforming dissolution and dilution process. In general, water chemistry is guided by complex weathering process, ion exchange along with influence of Cl ions from anthropogenic impact.

Monsoon Circulations and Tropical Heterogeneous Chlorine Chemistry in the Stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnison, Doug; Solomon, Susan; Garcia, Rolando; Bandoro, Justin; Wilka, Catherine; Neeley, Ryan, III; Schmidt, Anja; Barnes, John; Vernier, Jean-Paul; Höpfner, Michael; Mills, Michael

2017-04-01

Heterogeneous chlorine chemistry on and in liquid polar stratospheric particles is thought to play a significant role in polar and subpolar ozone depletion. Previous studies have not provided evidence for heterogeneous chlorine chemistry occurring in the tropical stratosphere. Using the current best understanding of liquid stratospheric particle chemistry in a state-of-the-art numerical model, we examine whether such processes should be expected to affect tropical composition, particularly at and slightly above the cold tropical tropopause, in association with the Asian and North American summer (June-July-August) monsoons. The Specified Dynamics version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is used in this study. This model is nudged to externally specified dynamical fields for temperature, zonal and meridional winds, and surface pressure fields from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Model simulations suggest that transport processes associated with the summer monsoons bring increased abundances of hydrochloric acid (HCl) into contact with liquid sulfate aerosols in the cold tropical lowermost stratosphere, leading to heterogeneous chemical activation of chlorine species. The calculations indicate that the spatial and seasonal distributions of chlorine monoxide (ClO) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2) near the monsoon regions of the northern hemisphere tropical and subtropical lowermost stratosphere could provide indicators of heterogeneous chlorine processing. In the model, these processes impact the local ozone budget and decrease ozone abundances, implying a chemical contribution to longer-term northern tropical ozone profile changes at 16-19 km.

Indian monsoon dominates runoff of southern Himalayas—taking Langtang region as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, R.; Shi, J.; He, Y.; Hu, G.

2016-12-01

Abstract: Inland Glacier and Indian monsoon are the major source of water supply for human being in the Himalayas. It is vital to study the characteristics of runoff with glacier melting and Indian monsoon precipitation and the relationship between climate change and these processes overall. In this study, we have focused on the Langtang region in the southern slope of the Himalayas. We have used TRMM data to study the precipitation and MODIS data to study the temperature in the Himalayas and a distributed conceptual model has been applied to runoff modeling. The runoff from modeling based on precipitation and temperature can be validated with the in-situ observation in the Langtang region. The results show a decreasing trend of the runoff in the Langtang region which is similar to the decreasing trend of the TRMM precipitation data. It seems that precipitation is mainly controlling the runoff in the Langtang region and that the summer Indian monsoon rather than glacier melting is dominating the runoff in the Langtang region since the summer precipitation in the Southern slope of the Himalayas is mainly from the Indian summer monsoon.

Does Mexican Land Management Influence US Southwest Rainfall? Effects of Vegetation Seasonality and Land Use Change on Atmospheric Moisture Transport in the North American Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2013-12-01

Southern Arizona and New Mexico receive 30-50% of their annual rainfall in the summer, as part of the North American Monsoon (NAM). Modeling studies suggest that 15-25% of this rainfall first falls on Mexican land, is transpired by vegetation, and subsequently is transported northward across the border to the US. The main source regions in Mexico lie in the subtropical scrub and tropical deciduous forests in the foothills of the Sierra Madre Occidental, in the states of Sinaloa and Sonora. A key characteristic of these natural ecosystems is their rapid greening at the onset of the monsoon, which maximizes the amount of moisture transpired from the soil into the atmosphere in the days immediately following rainfall. These ecosystems are under threat from a number of human activities, including expansion of rainfed and irrigated agriculture, deforestation for grazing activities and urbanization. These changes in land use result in dramatically different seasonality and magnitude of evapotranspiration. In this study, we examine the differences in spatial and temporal characteristics of evapotranspiration yielded by current and pre-industrial land cover. To this end, we employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model at 1/16 degree resolution, driven by gridded meteorological observations and the MCD15A3 4-day MODIS LAI product, across the NAM region (Arizona, New Mexico, and northern Mexico). We compare the magnitude and timing of land-atmosphere fluxes given by both pre-industrial and current land cover/use, as well as the land cover under several possible alternative land use scenarios. We identify the regions where the largest changes in magnitude and timing of evapotranspiration have occurred, as well as the regions and land use changes that could produce the largest changes in future evapotranspiration under different scenarios. Finally, we explore the consequences these effects have for monsoon moisture transport.

Effects of Land Use on the Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Fluxes and Moisture Transport in the North American Monsoon Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Mascaro, G.; White, D. D.; Vivoni, E. R.

2014-12-01

Southern Arizona and New Mexico receive 40-60% of their annual rainfall in the summer, as part of the North American Monsoon (NAM). Modeling studies suggest that 15-25% of this rainfall first falls on Mexican land, is transpired by vegetation, and subsequently is transported northward across the border to the US. The main source regions in Mexico include two primary landcover types in Sonora and Sinaloa: subtropical scrub and tropical deciduous forests in the foothills of the Sierra Madre Occidental; and large expanses of irrigated agriculture along the Gulf of California. The foothill ecosystems, known for their rapid greening and large transpiration rates at the onset of the monsoon, are under threat from deforestation for grazing activities. On the other hand, irrigated agriculture in both the winter and summer has shifted the seasonality of evaporative fluxes and introduced socio-economic factors into their interannual variability and predictability. In this study, we examine the differences in spatial and temporal characteristics of evapotranspiration yielded by current and pre-industrial land cover / land use. To this end, we employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model at 1/16 degree resolution, driven by gridded meteorological observations and MODIS LAI, NDVI, and albedo products, across the NAM region (Arizona, New Mexico, and northern Mexico). We compare the magnitude and timing of land-atmosphere fluxes given by both pre-industrial and current land cover/use, as well as the land cover under several possible alternative land use scenarios. We identify the regions where the largest changes in magnitude and timing of evapotranspiration have occurred, as well as the regions and land use changes that could produce the largest changes in future evapotranspiration under different scenarios. Finally, we explore the consequences these effects have for the predictability of monsoon moisture transport.

Possible connection between the East Asian summer monsoon and a swing of the haze-fog-prone area in eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qian; Cao, Ziqi; Sheng, Lifang; Diao, Yina; Wang, Wencai; Zhou, Yang; Qiu, Jingyi

2018-05-01

The summer monsoon has recently been hypothesized to influence haze-fog events over China, but the detailed processes involved have yet to be determined. In the present study, we found that the haze-fog-prone area swings over eastern China during boreal summer (May to September), coinciding with the movement of the subtropical monsoon convergence belt (hereinafter referred to simply as the "convergence belt"). Further investigation showed that the convergence belt modulates the spatial distribution of the haze-fog-prone area by altering the regional atmospheric conditions. When the warm and wet summer monsoon air mass pushes northwards and meets with cold air, a frontal zone (namely, the convergence belt) forms. The ascent of warm and wet air along the front strengthens the atmospheric stability ahead of the frontal zone, while the descent of cold and dry air weakens the vertical diffusion at the same place. These processes result in an asymmetric distribution of haze-fog along the convergence belt. Based on the criterion of absolute stability and downdraft, these atmospheric conditions favorable for haze-fog are able to identify 57-79% of haze-fog-prone stations, and the anticipation accuracy is 61-71%. After considering the influence of air pollutants on haze-fog occurrence, the anticipation accuracy rises to 78-79%. Our study reveals a connection between local haze-fog weather phenomena and regional atmospheric conditions and large-scale circulation, and demonstrates one possible mechanism for how the summer monsoon influences the distribution of haze-fog in eastern China.

Stable Carbon Isotope Ratios in Atmospheric VOC across the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone obtained during the OMO-ASIA campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krebsbach, Marc; Koppmann, Ralf; Meisehen, Thomas

2017-04-01

The automated high volume air sampling system (MIRAH) has been deployed during the atmospheric measurement campaign OMO-ASIA (Oxidation Mechanism Observations) with the German High Altitude - Long-range research aircraft (HALO) in July and August 2015. The intensive measurement period with base stations in Paphos (Cyprus) and Gan (Maldives) focussed on oxidation processes and air pollution chemistry downwind of the South Asia summer monsoon anticyclone, a pivot area critical for air quality and climate change, both regionally and worldwide. The measurement region covered the Eastern Mediterranean region, the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, and the Arabian Sea. In total 194 air samples were collected on 17 flights in a height region from 3 km up to 15 km. The air samples were analysed for stable carbon isotope ratios in VOC with GC-C-IRMS in the laboratory afterwards. We determined stable carbon isotope ratios and mixing ratios of several aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, and aromatics. The large extent of the investigated area allowed for encountering air masses with different origin, characteristic, and atmospheric processing, e.g. Mediterranean air masses, crossing of polluted filaments and remnants of the Asian monsoon outflow, split of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. In this presentation we will show first results and interpretations supported by HYSPLIT backward trajectories.

Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Jilong; Wang, Lin; Lin, Zhongda

2012-09-01

Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

Evaluation of groundwater quality and suitability for irrigation and drinking purposes in southwest Punjab, India using hydrochemical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Diana Anoubam; Rishi, Madhuri S.; Keesari, Tirumalesh

2017-10-01

Groundwater samples from alluvial aquifers of Bathinda district, southwest Punjab were measured for physicochemical parameters as well as major ion chemistry to evaluate the groundwater suitability for drinking and irrigation purposes and to present the current hydrochemical status of groundwater of this district. Temporal variations were analyzed by comparing the pre- and post-monsoon groundwater chemistry. Most of the samples showed contamination: F- (72 %), Mg2+ (22 %), SO4 2- (28 %), TH (25 %), NO3 - (22 %), HCO3 - (22 %) and TDS (11 %) during pre-monsoon and F- (50 %), Mg2+ (39 %), SO4 2- (22 %), TH (28 %), NO3 - (22 %) and TDS (28 %) during post-monsoon above permissible limits for drinking, while rest of the parameters fall within the limits. Irrigation suitability was checked using sodium absorption ratio (SAR), residual sodium carbonate (RSC), percent sodium (Na%) and permeability index (PI). Most of the samples fall under good to suitable category during pre-monsoon period, but fall under doubtful to unsuitable category during post-monsoon period. Presence of high salt content in groundwater during post-monsoon season reflects leaching of salts present in the unsaturated zone by infiltrating precipitation. Hydrochemical data was interpreted using Piper's trilinear plot and Chadha's plot to understand the various geochemical processes affecting the groundwater quality. The results indicate that the order of cation dominance is Na+ > Mg2+ > Ca2+, while anion dominance is in the order Cl- > HCO3 - > SO4 2-. The geochemistry of groundwater of this district is mainly controlled by the carbonate and silicate mineral dissolution and ion exchange during pre-monsoon and leaching from the salts deposited in vadose zone during post-monsoon. The main sources of contamination are soluble fertilizers and livestock wastes. This study is significant as the surface water resources are limited and the quality and quantity of groundwater are deteriorating with time due to anthropogenic inputs.

Monsoon Related Fluctuations in Terrigenous Sedimentation and Biological Productivity in the Bay of Bengal During the Past 24,500 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

K V, S.; Kurian, J.; Meloth, T.; Rasik, R.

2011-12-01

Reconstruction of the Indian monsoon precipitation on a centennial to millennial scale has important relevance on the future climate and hydrologic change over the entire South Asia. Here we present paleo-monsoon records from a AMS 14C dated sediment core from the Bay of Bengal (ABP-24/01; location - 11°15.52' N & 90°21.84' E, water depth - 3206 m) that span the past 24.5 ka BP (calendar age). The array of inorganic and organic geochemical proxy records examined here assist the reconstruction of monsoon associated precipitation/ runoff, oceanic productivity and water column processes during the last glacial maximum (LGM ~21±2 ka BP) to the late Holocene. During the early stages of LGM, terrigenous elemental concentrations (Al, Fe) remained low, with substantial increase towards late LGM stage. Significantly, the substantial LGM increase in the eolian proxy concentrations (Mg, Rb) suggest that with the diminishing strength of the rain bearing SW monsoon during LGM the dry NE monsoon strengthened, leading to increased dust input to the Bay of Bengal. Although the LGM biological productivity (Corg, CaCO3, Ba) at the site remained low due to the relative decrease in runoff-derived nutrients, the ocean bottom seems to have less ventilated (Mn, U, V). The deglacial period is associated with slightly increasing monsoonal runoff increasing trend in terrigenous input, without any increase in biological productivity. Interestingly, the enhanced terrigenous input to the core site occurred during 12.5 - 10 ka BP. The Holocene was characterised by a dramatic increase in biological productivity between 8.5 and 7 ka BP as well as relatively enhanced river influx. While the various proxy records suggest a substantial decrease in monsoonal terrigenous influx after 7 ka BP, the productivity records remained at elevated values with better ventilated bottom waters.

Spatial and temporal distribution of metals in suspended particulate matter of the Kali estuary, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suja, S.; Kessarkar, Pratima M.; Fernandes, Lina L.; Kurian, Siby; Tomer, Arti

2017-09-01

Major (Al, Fe, Mn, Ti, Mg) and trace (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, Co, Zr, Rb, Sr, Ba, Li, Be, Sc, V, Ga, Nb, Mo, Sn, Sb, Cs, Hf, Ta, Bi, Th, U) elements and particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations in surface suspended particulate matter (SPM) of the Kali estuary, (central west coast of India) were studied during the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post monsoon seasons to infer estuarine processes, source of SPM and Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo) assigned pollutionIgeo levels. Distribution of SPM indicates the presence of the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) during all three seasons near the river mouth and a second ETM during the post monsoon time in the upstream associated with salinities gradient. The SPM during the monsoon is finer grained (avg. 53 μm), characterized by uniformly low normalized elemental concentration, whereas the post and pre monsoon are characterized by high normalized elemental concentration with coarser grain size (avg. 202 μm and 173 μm respectively) with highest ratios in the upstream estuary. The elemental composition and principal component analysis for the upstream estuary SPM support more contribution from the upstream catchment area rocks during the monsoon season; there is additional contribution from the downstream catchment area during the pre and post monsoon period due to the tidal effect. The Kali estuarine SPM has higher Al, Fe, Mn, Ti, Mg, Ni, Co, Ba, Li and V with respect to Average World River SPM (WRSPM). Igeo values for the SPM indicate Kali Estuary to be severely enriched with Mn and moderately enriched with Cu, Zn, Ni, Co, U and Mo in the upstream estuary during pre and post monsoon seasons. Seasonal changes in salinity gradient (reduced freshwater flow due to closing of the dam gates), reduced velocity at meandering region of the estuary and POC of 1.6-2.3% resulted in co-precipitation of trace elements that were further fortified by flocculation and coagulation throughout the water column resulting in metal trapping in the upstream region.

Relative roles of aerosols, SST, and snow impurity on snowmelt over the Tibetan Plateau and its their impacts on South Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K. M.; Tsay, S. C.; Lau, W. K. M.; Yasunari, T. J.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Koster, R. D.; daSilva, A.

2017-12-01

We examine the relative roles of atmospheric aerosol radiative forcing, year-to-year SST (sea surface temperature) variability, and surface radiative forcing by snow impurity on snowmelt over the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on rainfall and circulation of South Asian summer monsoon. Five-member ensemble experiments are conducted with NASA's GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5), equipped with a snow darkening module - GOSWIM (GOddard SnoW Impurity Module), on the Water-Year 2008 (October 2007 to September 2008). Asian summer monsoon in 2008 was near normal in terms of monsoon rainfall over India subcontinent. However, rainfall was excessive in the North while the southern India suffered from the rainfall deficit. The 2008 summer monsoon was accompanied with high loading of aerosols in the Arabian Sea and La Niña condition in the tropical Pacific. To examine the roles high aerosol loading and La Niña condition on the north-south dipole in Indian monsoon rainfall, two sets of experiments, in addition to control runs (CNTRL), are conducted without SST anomalies (CSST) and aerosol radiative feedback (NRF), respectively. Results show that increased aerosol loading in early summer is associated with the increased dust transport during La Niña years. Increased aerosols over the northern India induces EHP-like (elevated heat pump) circulation and increases rainfall over the India subcontinent. Aerosol radiative forcing feedback (CNTRL-NRF) strengthens the EHP-like monsoon circulation even more. Results indicate that anomalous circulation associated with La Niña condition increases aerosol loading by enhancing dust transport as well as by increasing aerosol lifetime. Increased aerosols induces EHP-like feedback processes and increases rainfall over the India subcontinent.

Mesopelagic microplankton of the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gowing, Marcia M.; Garrison, David L.; Wishner, Karen F.; Gelfman, Celia

2003-10-01

The Arabian Sea is notable for its dramatic monsoonal effects on euphotic zone biogeochemical processes and the large spatial extent of its mesopelagic oxygen minimum zone. As part of the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Arabian Sea project, we sampled microplankton (organisms 20-200 μm including diatoms, dinoflagellates, ciliates, sarcodines and nauplii) at five depths from 250 to 1000 or 1100 m at six stations during four seasonal cruises in 1995. Abundances of groups of organisms at discrete depths averaged 1-2 l -1 seasonally. Mean seasonal integrated biomass of the assemblage was 29 mg C m -2 during the late Northeast Monsoon, 37 mg C m -2 during the Spring Intermonsoon, 47 mg C m -2 during the late Southwest Monsoon and 49 mg C m -2 during the early Northeast Monsoon. Overall, protozoans dominated the mesopelagic microplankton assemblage. Integrated biomass peaked during the late SW Monsoon at two stations as expected if microplankton responded to surface productivity and mesopelagic organic carbon fluxes. At three stations, microplankton biomass peaked during the early NE Monsoon; this may reflect a continuing response to SW Monsoon productivity signals by these larger, slow-growing organisms. Protozooplankton abundance did not appear to be negatively affected by low (<0.1 ml dissolved O 2 l -1) oxygen, whereas naupliar abundance and biomass were higher where oxygen concentration was higher. Total microplankton biomass was highest where oxygen concentrations and also mesozooplankton biomass were lowest, suggesting that predation also played a role in microplankton distributions. Calculations based on allometric relationships indicated that the mesopelagic heterotrophic microplankton assemblage could, on average, respire 9-38% of the particulate carbon flux that entered the system at 100 m and possibly 18-76% of the flux remaining at 250 m. Microplankton may therefore be significant carbon cyclers in the ocean's vast "twilight zone".

Chemical characteristics of submicron particles at the central Tibet Plateau: influence of long-range transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, J.; Zhang, Q.; Shi, J.; Ge, X.; Xie, C., Sr.; Wang, J.; Shichang, K.; Zhang, R.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have revealed a significant influx of air pollution from south Asia to Himalayas and Tibet Plateau (TP) during pre-monsoon period. In order to characterize the chemical composition, sources, and transport mechanism of polluted air mass in this pristine area, we performed a field study during June 2015 by deploying a suite of online instruments including an Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-AMS) and a multi-angle absorption photometer (MAAP) at Nam Co Station (90°57'E, 30°46'N 4746m a.s.l) at the central of the TP. The measurements were made at a time when the transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon occurred. The average ambient mass concentration of submicron particulate matter (PM1) over the whole campaign period was 2.0 µg m-3, with organics accounting for 64%, followed by sulfate (16%), black carbon (9%), ammonium (8%), and nitrate (3%). This mass loading and composition were comparable with most of AMS results in remote sites worldwide. Air pollution episodes were observed during the pre-monsoon period, while consistently low aerosol concentrations were observed during the monsoon period. However, the chemical composition of aerosol during the air pollution episodes in the pre-monsoon season was on a case-by-case basis, depending on the prevailing meteorological conditions and air mass transport routes. Most of the chemical species exhibited significant diurnal variations with higher values occurring during afternoon and lower values during early morning time whereas nitrate peaked during early morning in association with higher relative humidity and lower air temperature. Organic aerosol (OA) was more oxidized with an oxygen-to-carbon ratio (O/C) of 0.94 during the pre-monsoon period than during monsoon (average O/C of 0.48). The average O/C of OA was 0.88 over the entire campaign period. Positive matrix factorization of the high resolution mass spectra of OA identified two oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) factors: a less oxidized OOA (LO-OOA) and a more oxidized OOA (MO-OOA). The MO-OOA dominated during the pre-monsoon period, while LO-OOA dominated during the monsoon. The sensitivity of air pollution transport with synoptic process was also evaluated with a 3-D chemical transport model.

Hydro-meteorological processes on the Qinghai - Tibet Plateau observed from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menenti, Massimo; Colin, Jerome; Jia, Li; D'Urso, Guido; Foken, Thomas; Immerzeel, Walter; Jha, Ramakar; Liu, Qinhuo; Liu, Changming; Ma, Yaoming; Sobrino, Jose Antonio; Yan, Guangjian; Pelgrum, Henk; Porcu, Federico; Wang, Jian; Wang, Jiemin; Shen, Xueshun; Su, Zhongbo; Ueno, Kenichi

2014-05-01

The Qinghai - Tibet Plateau is characterized by a significant intra-annual variability and spatial heterogeneity of surface conditions. Snow and vegetation cover, albedo, surface temperature and wetness change very significantly during the year and from place to place. The influence of temporal changes on convective events and the onset of the monsoon has been documented by ground based measurements of land - atmosphere exchanges of heat and water. The state of the land surface over the entire Plateau can be determined by space observation of surface albedo, temperature, snow and vegetation cover and soil moisture. Fully integrated use of satellite and ground observations is necessary to support water resources management in SE Asia and to clarify the roles of the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau in the Asian monsoon system. New or significantly improved algorithms have been developed and evaluated against ground measurements. Variables retrieved include land surface properties, rain rate, aerosol optical depth, water vapour, snow cover and water equivalent, soil moisture and lake level. The three years time series of gap-free daily and hourly evaporation derived from geostationary data collected by the FY-2D satellite was a major achievement. The hydrologic modeling system has been implemented and applied to the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the headwaters of the major rivers in South and East Asia. Case studies on response of atmospheric circulation and specifically of convective activity to land surface conditions have been completed and the controlling land surface conditions and processes have been documented. Two new drought indicators have been developed: Normalized Temperature Anomaly Index (NTAI) and Normalized Vegetation Anomaly Index (NVAI). Case study in China and India showed that these indicators capture effectively drought severity and evolution. A new method has been developed for monitoring and early warning of flooded areas at the regional scale.

Role of North Indian Ocean Air-Sea Interaction in Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.; Han, W.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

Air-sea coupling processes over the North Indian Ocean associated with Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) are analyzed. Observations show that MISO convection anomalies affect underlying sea surface temperature (SST) through changes in surface shortwave radiation (via cloud cover change) and surface latent heat flux (associated with surface wind speed change). In turn, SST anomalies determine the changing rate of MISO precipitation (dP/dt): warm (cold) SST anomalies cause increasing (decreasing) precipitation rate through increasing (decreasing) surface convergence. Air-sea interaction gives rise to a quadrature relationship between MISO precipitation and SST anomalies. A local air-sea coupling model (LACM) is established based on these observed physical processes, which is a damped oscillatory system with no external forcing. The period of LACM is proportional to the square root of mean state mixed layer depth , assuming other physical parameters remain unchanged. Hence, LACM predicts a relatively short (long) MISO period over the North Indian Ocean during the May-June monsoon developing (July-August mature) phase when is shallow (deep). This result is consistent with observed MISO statistics. An oscillatory external forcing of a typical 30-day period is added to LACM, representing intraseasonal oscillations originated from the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate into the North Indian Ocean. The period of LACM is then determined by both the inherent period associated with local air-sea coupling and the period of external forcing. It is found that resonance occurs when , amplifying the MISO in situ. This result explains the larger MISO amplitude during the monsoon developing phase compared to the mature phase, which is associated with seasonal cycle of . LACM, however, fails to predict the observed small MISO amplitude during the September-October monsoon decaying phase, when is also shallow. This deficiency might be associated with the neglect of oceanic processes in LACM.

The role of bias in simulation of the Indian monsoon and its relationship to predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, P.

2016-12-01

Confidence in future projections of how climate change will affect the Indian monsoon is currently limited by- among other things-model biases. That is, the systematic error in simulating the mean present day climate. An important priority question in seamless prediction involves the role of the mean state. How much of the prediction error in imperfect models stems from a biased mean state (itself a result of many interacting process errors), and how much stems from the flow dependence of processes during an oscillation or variation we are trying to predict? Using simple but effective nudging techniques, we are able to address this question in a clean and incisive framework that teases apart the roles of the mean state vs. transient flow dependence in constraining predictability. The role of bias in model fidelity of simulations of the Indian monsoon is investigated in CAM5, and the relationship to predictability in remote regions in the "free" (non-nudged) domain is explored.

Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

2015-01-28

Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main developmentmore » region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.« less

Orbital- and Millennial-Scale Changes in the Australasian Monsoon over the Last 470,000 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagan, M. K.; Ayliffe, L.; Drysdale, R.; Zhao, J.; Griffiths, M. L.; Hellstrom, J.; Dunbar, G.; Hantoro, W.; Edwards, R.; Cheng, H.; Suwargadi, B.

2011-12-01

Speleothem 18O/16O records from China have revealed changes in East Asian monsoon rainfall over the last ~390,000 years (e.g. Wang et al. 2008, Cheng et al. 2010), yet little is known about orbital- and millennial-scale climate change in the 'southern half' of the Australasian monsoon domain. To fill this gap, we aim to build speleothem 18O/16O records for the seasonal monsoon rainfall belt of south-central Indonesia. Between 2006 and 2009, we sampled speleothems in Flores and southwest Sulawesi (latitudes 5-9 S) with U-series ages extending to ~90,000 yBP and ~470,000 yBP, respectively. Development of the 18O/16O records for Sulawesi is in progress, but the basal ages of the speleothems (onset of stalagmite growth) are intriguing because they cluster around glacial terminations, when the East Asian monsoon is known to have been weak (Cheng et al. 2010). There is clear antiphasing of the Flores and China speleothem 18O/16O records on precession time-scales over the last ~90,000 years. A distinct maximum in monsoon rainfall in Flores occurred ~21,000 yBP, suggesting the ITCZ moved south during the Last Glacial Maximum in response to the southern hemisphere summer insolation maximum. This important finding indicates that ITCZ positioning in tropical Australasia, through its influence on large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation, could have played a key role in the rapid rise of atmospheric CO2 and global warming that ultimately led to the demise of the ice age, as summarised by Denton et al. (2010) and others. The new Flores speleothem 18O/16O records also show that climate change in the North Atlantic region and Australasian monsoon rainfall are inextricably linked on millennial timescales (Griffiths et al. 2009, Lewis et al. 2011). For example, rapid warming in the North Atlantic region during Dansgaard-Oeschger Event 21 (~86,000 yBP) was linked to a synchronous northward shift of the Australasian ITCZ, marking the final demise of MIS 5b. In contrast, cooling in the North Atlantic during Heinrich Events 3 (~30,000 yBP) and 1 (~16,000 yBP) and the YD (12,800-11,500 yBP) correlates with southward shifts in the Australasian ITCZ. However, the 8,200 yBP cold snap in the North Atlantic produced drying and cooling around Flores. The key difference here is that sea level was relatively high, and cooler sea-surface temperatures in the Indonesian maritime continent at that time (based on nearby coral records) may have suppressed a southward migration of the ITCZ. Cheng, H. et al. (2010), Science, 326, 248-. Denton, G.H. et al. (2010), Science, 328, 1652-. Griffiths, M.L. et al. (2009), Nature Geoscience, 2, 636-. Lewis, S.C. et al. (2011), Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 303, 133-. Wang, Y. et al. (2008), Nature, 451, 1090-.

Recent changes in the summer monsoon circulation and their impact on dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratik, Kad; Parekh, Anant; Karmakar, Ananya; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-05-01

The present study examines changes in the low-level summer monsoon circulation over the Arabian Sea and their impact on the ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. The study confirms intensification and northward migration of low-level jet during 1979 to 2015. Further during the study period, an increase in the Arabian Sea upper ocean heat content is found in spite of a decreasing trend in the net surface heat flux, indicating the possible role of ocean dynamics in the upper ocean warming. Increase in the anti-cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the change in the monsoon circulation induces downwelling over the central Arabian Sea, favoring upper ocean warming. The decreasing trend of southward Ekman transport, a mechanism transporting heat from the land-locked north Indian Ocean to southern latitudes, also supports increasing trend of the upper ocean heat content. To reinstate and quantify the role of changing monsoon circulation in increasing the heat content over the Arabian Sea, sensitivity experiment is carried out using ocean general circulation model. In this experiment, the model is forced by inter-annual momentum forcing while rest of the forcing is climatological. Experiment reveals that the changing monsoon circulation increases the upper ocean heat content, effectively by enhancing downwelling processes and reducing southward heat transport, which strongly endorses our hypothesis that changing ocean dynamics associated with low-level monsoon circulation is causing the increasing trend in the heat content of the Arabian Sea.

Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

2017-09-01

Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.

2016-12-01

This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project undertaken by one of the coauthors (Bohua Huang, see the paper by Huang et al. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014) in another AGU session) in which seasonal hindcasts are being carried out for each of the 57 years (1958-2014) using CFSv2.

Climate Variability and Surface Processes in Tectonically Active Orogens: Insights From the Southern Central Andes and the Northwest Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strecker, M. R.; Bookhagen, B.

2008-12-01

The Southern Central Andes of NW Argentina and the NW Himalaya are important orographic barriers that intercept moisture-bearing winds associated with monsoonal circulation. Changes in both atmospheric circulation systems on decadal to millennial timescales fundamentally influence differences in the amount and location of rainfall in both orogens. In India, the eastern arm of the monsoonal circulation draws moisture from the Bay of Bengal and transports humid air masses along the southern Himalayan front to the northwest. There, at the end of the monsoonal conveyer belt, rainfall is diminished and moisture typically does not reach far into the orogen interior. Similar conditions apply to the NW Argentine Andes, which are located within the precipitation regime of the South American Monsoon. Here, pronounced local relief blocks humid air masses from the Amazon region, resulting in extreme gradients in rainfall that leave the orogen interior dry. However, during negative ENSO years (La Niña) and intensified Indian Summer Monsoon years, moisture penetrates farther into the Andean and Himalayan orogens, respectively. Structurally pre- conditioned valley systems may enhance this process and funnel moisture far into the orogen interior. The greater availability of moisture increases runoff, lateral scouring of mountin streams, and ultimately triggers intensified hillslope processes on decadal to centennial timescales. In both environments, the scenario of intensified present-day surface processes and rates is analogous to protracted episodes of enhanced mass removal from hillslopes via deep-seated landslides during the early Holocene and late Pleistocene. Apparently, these episodes were also associated with transient storage of voluminous conglomerates and lacustrine deposits in narrow intermontane basins. Subsequently, these deposits were incised, partly removed, and the fluvial systems adjusted themselves to the pre-depositional base levels through a readjustment and an increase in the fluvial efficiency and connectivity. Farther into the orogen interior, however, the episodically occurring increase in the availability of material may have contributed to the overall long-term reduction of relief due to reduced fluvial connectivity and the inability of rivers to evacuate material to the foreland. Pronounced coeval variations in erosion and depositional processes therefore emphasize the far-reaching impact of climate variability on the surface-process regime and hence provide insights into intensified episodes of landscape evolution in orogens. In addition, the present-day effects of climatic variability on the surface-process system may serve as a model for similar intensified processes that might be expected in a future global change scenario.

Bifurcations and catastrophes in a nonlinear dynamical model of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge line index and its evolution mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Mei; Zhang, Ren; Li, Ming; Wang, Shuo; Zeng, Wenhua; Wang, Zhengxin

2017-07-01

Despite much previous effort, the establishment of an accurate model of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and analysis of its chaotic behavior has proved to be difficult. Based on a phase-space technique, a nonlinear dynamical model of the WPSH ridge line and summer monsoon factors is constructed here from 50 years of data. Using a genetic algorithm, model inversion and parameter optimization are performed. The Lyapunov spectrum, phase portraits, time history, and Poincaré surface of section of the model are analyzed and an initial-value sensitivity test is performed, showing that the model and data have similar phase portraits and that the model is robust. Based on equilibrium stability criteria, four types of equilibria of the model are analyzed. Bifurcations and catastrophes of the equilibria are studied and related to the physical mechanism and actual weather phenomena. The results show that the onset and enhancement of the Somali low-level jet and the latent heat flux of the Indian monsoon are among the most important reasons for the appearance and maintenance of the double-ridge phenomenon. Violent breakout and enhancement of the Mascarene cold high will cause the WPSH to jump northward, resulting in the "empty plum" phenomenon. In the context of bifurcation and catastrophe in the dynamical system, the influence of the factors considered here on the WPSH has theoretical and practical significance. This work also opens the way to new lines of research on the interaction between the WPSH and the summer monsoon system.

Performance of WRF for Simulation of Mesoscale Meteorological Characteristics for Air Quality Assessment over Tropical Coastal City, Chennai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madala, Srikanth; Srinivas, C. V.; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.

2018-01-01

The land-sea breezes (LSBs) play an important role in transporting air pollution from urban areas on the coast. In this study, the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model is used for predicting boundary layer features to understand the transport of pollution in different seasons over the coastal region of Chennai in Southern India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with two non-local [Yonsei University (YSU) and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2)] and three turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) closure [Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi and Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN2) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE)], planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes for simulating the thermodynamic structure, and low-level atmospheric flow in different seasons. Comparison of simulations with observations from a global positioning system (GPS) radiosonde, meteorological tower, automated weather stations, and Doppler weather radar (DWR)-derived wind data reveals that the characteristics of LSBs vary widely in different seasons and are more prominent during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons (March-September) with large horizontal and vertical extents compared to the post-monsoon and winter seasons. The qualitative and quantitative results indicate that simulations with ACM2 followed by MYNN2 and YSU produced various features of the LSBs, boundary layer parameters and the thermo-dynamical structure in better agreement with observations than other tested physical parameterization schemes. Simulations revealed seasonal variation of onset time, vertical extent of LSBs, and mixed layer depth, which would influence the air pollution dispersion in different seasons over the study region.

Diurnal and seasonal variations in surface methane at a tropical coastal station: Role of mesoscale meteorology.

PubMed

Kavitha, M; Nair, Prabha R; Girach, I A; Aneesh, S; Sijikumar, S; Renju, R

2018-08-01

In view of the large uncertainties in the methane (CH 4 ) emission estimates and the large spatial gaps in its measurements, studies on near-surface CH 4 on regional basis become highly relevant. This paper presents the first time observational results of a study on the impacts of mesoscale meteorology on the temporal variations of near-surface CH 4 at a tropical coastal station, in India. It is based on the in-situ measurements conducted during January 2014 to August 2016, using an on-line CH 4 analyzer working on the principle of gas chromatography. The diurnal variation shows a daytime low (1898-1925ppbv) and nighttime high (1936-2022ppbv) extending till early morning hours. These changes are closely associated with the mesoscale circulations, namely Sea Breeze (SB) and Land Breeze (LB), as obtained through the meteorological observations, WRF simulations of the circulations and the diurnal variation of boundary layer height as observed by the Microwave Radiometer Profiler. The diurnal enhancement always coincides with the onset of LB. Several cases of different onset timings of LB were examined and results presented. The CH 4 mixing ratio also exhibits significant seasonal patterns being maximum in winter and minimum in pre-monsoon/monsoon with significant inter-annual variations, which is also reflected in diurnal patterns, and are associated with changing synoptic meteorology. This paper also presents an analysis of in-situ measured near-surface CH 4 , column averaged and upper tropospheric CH 4 retrieved by Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard Earth Observing System (EOS)/Aqua which gives insight into the vertical distribution of the CH 4 over the location. An attempt is also made to estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing for the measured CH 4 mixing ratio. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface Nutrient Utilisation and Productivity During Glacial-Interglacial Periods from the Equatorial Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R, C. K.; Bhushan, R.; Agnihotri, R.; Sawlani, R.; Jull, A. J. T.

2016-12-01

Seawaters and underlying sediments off Sri Lanka provide a unique marine realm affected by both branches of Northern Indian Ocean i.e. Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB). AS and BOB are known for their distinct response to southwest monsoon. AS experiencing mainly winds and upwelling while BOB receives precipitation driven surface runoff from the Indian sub-continent. Multiple proxies were measured on a radiocarbon dated sediment core raised off Sri Lanka; their down core variations were used to understand oceanic history (nutrient utilisation, surface productivity, nature of organic matter) spanning last glacial-interglacial cycle ( 26 to 2.5 ka BP). Variations in CaCO3, biogenic silica (BSi) and δ15N from 26 ka to 12.5 ka BP indicate the region was experiencing high surface productivity with probably reduced surface nutrient utilisation efficiency. Sedimentary δ15N depth profile is decoupled from down core variations of major productivity indices (e.g. CaCO3, OC), hinting plausibly partial utilization of nutrients in the mixed layer (photic zone). δ13C of OC and C/N (wt. ratio) clearly reveal the terrestrial origin of organic matter at 15 ka BP, a period known for witnessing onset of deglaciation in northern hemisphere. δ13C minimum at 9 ka BP indicates intense monsoonal activity during this time coinciding well with solar insolation (June) maximum of the northern hemisphere. With the onset of Holocene ( 11 ka BP), δ15N variations appear to correlate with BSi and Ba/Ti indicating enhanced utilization of available nutrients at surface. Suggesting surface productivity over the region was probably micro-nutrient limited. The increased inventory of terrestrial runoff in Holocene probably demonstrates enhanced carbon sequestration capability of the region.

Precisely dated multidecadally resolved Asian summer monsoon dynamics 113.5-86.6 thousand years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Xiaoyan; He, Yaoqi; Hu, Hsun-Ming; Li, Zhizhong; Spötl, Christoph; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2016-07-01

We present a new 230Th-dated absolute chronology of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability from 113.5 to 86.6 kyr BP (before 1950 AD). This integrated multidecadally resolved record, based on 1435 oxygen isotope data and 46 230Th dates with 2-sigma errors as low as ±0.3 kyr from three stalagmites collected in Sanxing Cave, southwestern China, can be a new reference for calibrating paleoclimate proxy sequences. The Sanxing δ18O record follows the 23 kyr precessional cycle of insolation and is punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations of the Chinese Interstadials (CIS) 25 to 22, corresponding to Greenland Interstadials (GIS) 25 to 22. The onset of CIS 25, 24, 23 and 22 is dated to 113.1 ± 0.4, 108.1 ± 0.3, 103.7 ± 0.3 and 91.4 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Sanxing record, respectively. The end of CIS 24 and CIS 22 is constrained to 105.5 ± 0.4 and 87.7 ± 0.3 kyr BP, respectively. A centennial-scale precursor event at 104.1 ± 0.3 kyr BP preceding CIS 23 is clearly registered. These events in the Sanxing record are synchronous with those identified in stalagmites from the European Alps (NALPS), except for the onset of GIS 25 and the end of GIS 22, and differ by up to 2.3 kyr from the corresponding ones in Greenland ice core records. The high degree of similarity of the δ18O records between Sanxing Cave and Greenland supports a Northern Hemisphere forcing of the ASM. The anti-phase relationship of δ18O records between Sanxing stalagmites and Antarctic ice cores suggests an additional ASM linkage to the Southern Hemisphere.

The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

2017-12-01

High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

Monsoon source shifts during the drying mid-Holocene: Biomarker isotope based evidence from the core 'monsoon zone' (CMZ) of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Saswati; Prasad, Sushma; Wilkes, Heinz; Riedel, Nils; Stebich, Martina; Basavaiah, Nathani; Sachse, Dirk

2015-09-01

A better understanding of past variations of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), that plays a vital role for the still largely agro-based economy in India, can lead to a better assessment of its potential impact under global climate change scenarios. However, our knowledge of spatiotemporal patterns of ISM strength is limited due to the lack of high-resolution, continental paleohydrological records. Here, we reconstruct centennial-scale hydrological variability during the Holocene associated to changes in the intensity of the ISM based on a record of lipid biomarker abundances and compound-specific stable isotopic composition of a 10 m long sediment core from saline-alkaline Lonar Lake, situated in the core 'monsoon zone' of central India. We identified three main periods of distinct hydrology during the Holocene in central India. The period between 10.1 and 6 cal ka BP was likely the wettest during the Holocene. Lower average chain length (ACL) index values (29.4-28.6) and negative δ13Cwax values (-34.8‰ to -27.8‰) of leaf wax n-alkanes indicate the dominance of woody C3 vegetation in the catchment, and negative δDwax values (concentration weighted average) (-171‰ to -147‰) suggest a wet period due to an intensified monsoon. After 6 cal ka BP, a gradual shift to less negative δ13Cwax values (particularly for the grass derived n-C31) and appearance of the triterpene lipid tetrahymanol, generally considered as a marker for salinity and water column stratification, mark the onset of drier conditions. At 5.1 cal ka BP an increasing flux of leaf wax n-alkanes along with the highest flux of tetrahymanol indicate a major lowering of the lake level. Between 4.8 and 4 cal ka BP, we find evidence for a transition to arid conditions, indicated by high and strongly variable tetrahymanol flux. In addition, a pronounced shift to less negative δ13Cwax values, in particular for n-C31 (-25.2‰ to -22.8‰), during this period indicates a change of dominant vegetation to C4 grasses. In agreement with other proxy data, such as deposition of evaporite minerals, we interpret this period to reflect the driest conditions in the region during the last 10.1 ka. This transition led to protracted late Holocene arid conditions after 4 ka with the presence of a permanent saline lake, supported by the sustained presence of tetrahymanol and more positive average δDwax values (-122‰ to -141‰). A late Holocene peak of cyanobacterial biomarker input at 1.3 cal ka BP might represent an event of lake eutrophication, possibly due to human impact and the onset of cattle/livestock farming in the catchment. A unique feature of our record is the presence of a distinct transitional period between 4.8 and 4 cal ka BP, which was characterized by some of the most negative δDwax values during the Holocene (up to -180‰), when all other proxy data indicate the driest conditions during the Holocene. These negative δDwax values can as such most reasonably be explained by a shift in moisture source area and/or pathways or rainfall seasonality during this transitional period. We hypothesize that orbital induced weakening of the summer solar insolation and associated reorganization of the general atmospheric circulation, as a possible southward displacement of the tropical rainbelt, led to an unstable hydroclimate in central India between 4.8 and 4 ka. Our findings shed light onto the sequence of changes during mean state changes of the monsoonal system, once an insolation driven threshold has been passed, and show that small changes in solar insolation can be associated with major hydroclimate changes on the continents, a scenario that may be relevant with respect to future changes in the ISM system.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau's climate system and its impact on East Asia.

PubMed

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-03-13

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the "Third Pole" of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on "water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology" multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau’s climate system and its impact on East Asia

PubMed Central

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-01-01

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on “water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology” multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored. PMID:28287648

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

: Monsoon progress image (Link) IITM : 2017 Monsoon (Link) SW Monsoon, 2016 IMD : Daily rainfall report (30th September, 2016) (Link) IMD : End of season Monsoon Report (2016) (Link) SW Monsoon, 2015 IMD : Daily rainfall report (30th September, 2015) (Link) IMD : End of season Monsoon Report (2015) (Link

Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt.

PubMed

Manning, Joseph G; Ludlow, Francis; Stine, Alexander R; Boos, William R; Sigl, Michael; Marlon, Jennifer R

2017-10-17

Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. Here we show a suppression of Nile summer flooding via the radiative and dynamical impacts of explosive volcanism on the African monsoon, using climate model output, ice-core-based volcanic forcing data, Nilometer measurements, and ancient Egyptian writings. We then examine the response of Ptolemaic Egypt (305-30 BCE), one of the best-documented ancient superpowers, to volcanically induced Nile suppression. Eruptions are associated with revolt onset against elite rule, and the cessation of Ptolemaic state warfare with their great rival, the Seleukid Empire. Eruptions are also followed by socioeconomic stress with increased hereditary land sales, and the issuance of priestly decrees to reinforce elite authority. Ptolemaic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions offers a caution for all monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, presently including 70% of world population.The degree to which human societies have responded to past climatic changes remains unclear. Here, using a novel combination of approaches, the authors show how volcanically-induced suppression of Nile summer flooding led to societal unrest in Ptolemaic Egypt (305-30 BCE).

Temporal and Spatial Variability of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet/Front in the Northwest Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Shaqsi, Hilal Mohamed Said

Thirteen years of 1.1 km resolution daily satellites remote sensing sea surface temperature datasets (2002-2014), sea surface winds, sea surface height, Argo floats, daily three-hour interval wind datasets, and hourly records of oceanography physical parameters from mooring current meters were processed and analyzed to investigate the dynamics, temporal and spatial variability of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet off the northwest Arabian Sea. Cayula and Cornillon single image edge detection algorithm was used to detect these thermal fronts. The Ras Al-Hadd thermal front was found to have two seasonal peaks. The first peak occurred during the intensified southwest monsoon period (July/August), while the second peak was clearly observed during the transitional period or the Post-Southwest monsoon (September-October). Interannual and intraseasonal variability showed the occurrence of the Ras Al-Hadd thermal fronts in the northwest Arabian Sea. The southwest monsoon winds, the Somalia Current, the East Arabian Current, and the warmer high salinity waters from the Sea of Oman are the main factors influencing the creation of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet. Based on direct observations, current velocity in the Cape Ras Al-Hadd Jet exceeded 120 cms-1, and the wind speed was over 12 ms-1 during the southwest monsoon seasons. The mean width and the mean length of the Jet were approximately 40 km and 260 km, respectively. Neither the winter monsoon, nor the Pre-Southwest monsoon seasons showed signs of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet or fronts in the northwest Arabian Sea.

Using NDVI to measure precipitation in semi-arid landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Birtwhistle, Amy N.; Laituri, Melinda; Bledsoe, Brian; Friedman, Jonathan M.

2016-01-01

Measuring precipitation in semi-arid landscapes is important for understanding the processes related to rainfall and run-off; however, measuring precipitation accurately can often be challenging especially within remote regions where precipitation instruments are scarce. Typically, rain-gauges are sparsely distributed and research comparing rain-gauge and RADAR precipitation estimates reveal that RADAR data are often misleading, especially for monsoon season convective storms. This study investigates an alternative way to map the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation inputs along ephemeral stream channels using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. NDVI values from 26 years of pre- and post-monsoon season Landsat imagery were derived across Yuma Proving Ground (YPG), a region covering 3,367 km2 of semiarid landscapes in southwestern Arizona, USA. The change in NDVI from a pre-to post-monsoon season image along ephemeral stream channels explained 73% of the variance in annual monsoonal precipitation totals from a nearby rain-gauge. In addition, large seasonal changes in NDVI along channels were useful in determining when and where flow events have occurred.

Winter monsoon variability and its impact on aerosol concentrations in East Asia.

PubMed

Jeong, Jaein I; Park, Rokjin J

2017-02-01

We investigate the relationship between winter aerosol concentrations over East Asia and variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) using GEOS-Chem 3-D global chemical transport model simulations and ground-based aerosol concentration data. We find that both observed and modeled surface aerosol concentrations have strong relationships with the intensity of the EAWM over northern (30-50°N, 100-140°E) and southern (20-30°N, 100-140°E) East Asia. In strong winter monsoon years, compared to weak winter monsoon years, lower and higher surface PM 2.5 concentrations by up to 25% are shown over northern and southern East Asia, respectively. Analysis of the simulated results indicates that the southward transport of aerosols is a key process controlling changes in aerosol concentrations over East Asia associated with the EAWM. Variability in the EAWM is found to play a major role in interannual variations in aerosol concentrations; consequently, changes in the EAWM will be important for understanding future changes in wintertime air quality over East Asia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mid-late Holocene climate variability in the Indian monsoon: Evidence from continental shelf sediments adjacent to Rushikulya river, eastern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ankit, Yadav; Kumar, Prem; Anoop, Ambili; Mishra, Praveen K.; Varghese, Saju

2017-04-01

We present elemental and grain-size distributions obtained from the sediment core of the continental shelf adjacent to the Rushikulya river mouth, eastern India to quantify the paleoclimatic changes. The retrieved 1.60 m long well-dated core spans the past ca. 6800 cal BP. The modern spatial distribution of grain size and geochemistry of the inner-mid shelf sediments has been carried out to understand the seafloor morphology and sedimentary processes. Based on the mod- ern investigations, the proportion of particle size (clay vs sand) and variation in elemental values (TiO2 vs Al2O3) has been used to interpret the changes in terrigenous supply. The grain-size and elemental distribution data from the core sediments indicates a period of enhanced surface water runoff from 6800 to 3100 cal BP followed by a drier condition (3100 cal BP to present) suggesting weakening of monsoon. The weakening of the monsoonal strength is coeval with other records from the Indian sub-continent and suggests response of Indian monsoon to changing solar insolation during late Holocene.

Trace gas transport out of the Indian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomsche, Laura; Pozzer, Andrea; Zimmermann, Peter; Parchatka, Uwe; Fischer, Horst

2016-04-01

The trace gas transport out of the Indian summer monsoon was investigated during the aircraft campaign OMO (Oxidation Mechanism Observations) with the German research aircraft HALO (High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft) in July/August 2015. HALO was based at Paphos/Cyprus and also on Gan/Maledives. Flights took place over the Mediterranean Sea, the Arabian Peninsula and the Arabian Sea. In this work the focus is on the distribution of carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) in the upper troposphere. They were measured with the laser absorption spectrometer TRISTAR on board of HALO. During the Indian summer monsoon strong convection takes place over India and the Bay of Bengal. In this area the population is high accompanied by many emission sources e.g. wetlands and cultivation of rice. Consequently the boundary layer is polluted containing high concentrations of trace gases like methane and carbon monoxide. Due to vertical transport these polluted air masses are lifted to the upper troposphere. Here they circulate with the so called Asian monsoon anticyclone. In the upper troposphere polluted air masses lead to a change in the chemical composition thus influence the chemical processes. Furthermore the anticyclone spreads the polluted air masses over a larger area. Thus the outflow of the anticyclone in the upper troposphere leads to higher concentrations of trace gases over the Arabian Sea, the Arabian Peninsula and also over the eastern part of North Africa and the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. During OMO higher concentrations of methane and carbon monoxide were detected at altitudes between 11km and 15km. The highest measured concentrations of carbon monoxide and methane were observed over Oman. The CO concentration in the outflow of the monsoon exceeds background levels by 10-15ppb. However the enhancement in the concentration is not obviously connected to the monsoon due to the natural variability in the troposphere. The enhancement in the methane concentration (30-40ppb) is more obviously connected to the monsoon because it is much higher than the natural variability. Consequently methane is a very good tracer for the monsoon influenced air masses. Beside flights into the outflow of the Indian summer monsoon, there were also measurements of background concentrations in the upper troposphere in air not influenced by the monsoon. Profiles have shown that the high concentrations of trace gases are only observed in the upper troposphere. The high concentrations in the upper troposphere cannot be explained by vertical transport form local ground sources.

Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

2010-12-01

Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically downscaled climate projection data will be integrated into future water resource projections in the state of Arizona, through a cooperative effort involving numerous water resource stakeholders.

South Asian summer monsoon breaks: Process-based diagnostics in HIRHAM5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanf, Franziska S.; Annamalai, H.; Rinke, Annette; Dethloff, Klaus

2017-05-01

This study assesses the ability of a high-resolution downscaling simulation with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM5 in capturing the monsoon basic state and boreal summer intraseasonal variability (BSISV) over South Asia with focus on moist and radiative processes during 1979-2012. A process-based vertically integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget is performed to understand the model's fidelity in representing leading processes that govern the monsoon breaks over continental India. In the climatology (June-September) HIRHAM5 simulates a dry bias over central India in association with descent throughout the free troposphere. Sources of dry bias are interpreted as (i) near-equatorial Rossby wave response forced by excess rainfall over the southern Bay of Bengal promotes anomalous descent to its northwest and (ii) excessive rainfall over near-equatorial Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal anchor a "local Hadley-type" circulation with descent anomalies over continental India. Compared with observations HIRHAM5 captures the leading processes that account for breaks, although with generally reduced amplitudes over central India. In the model too, anomalous dry advection and net radiative cooling are responsible for the initiation and maintenance of breaks, respectively. However, weaker contributions of all adiabatic MSE budget terms, and an inconsistent relationship between negative rainfall anomalies and radiative cooling reveals shortcomings in HIRHAM5's moisture-radiation interaction. Our study directly implies that process-based budget diagnostics are necessary, apart from just checking the northward propagation feature to examine RCM's fidelity to simulate BSISV.

Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Douville, Hervé

2011-10-01

The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S-32°N 30°W-50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land-atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper.

Dynamics and composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Sinh Cai, Duy; Eyring, Veronika; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat-Witschas, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

2018-04-01

This study places HALO research aircraft observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The observations were obtained during the Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal) campaign in September 2012. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from those in the rest of the year, and the measurements reflect the main processes acting throughout the monsoon season. Net photochemical O3 production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, where uplifted precursors meet increased NOx, mainly produced by lightning. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Radial transport barriers of the circulation are effectively overcome by subseasonal dynamical instabilities of the anticyclone, which occur quite frequently and are of paramount importance for the trace gas composition of the ASMA. Both the isentropic entrainment of O3-rich air and the photochemical conversion of uplifted O3-poor air tend to increase O3 in the ASMA outflow.

Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.; Braconnot, Pascale; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kang, Sarah M.; Mapes, Brian E.; Scheff, Jacob; Schumacher, Courtney; Sobel, Adam H.; Xie, Shang-Ping

2018-06-01

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

Orbital- and Millennial-Scale Changes in the Australasian Monsoon Through the Late Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagan, M. K.; Ayliffe, L. K.; Scroxton, N. G.; Krause, C. E.; Kimbrough, A. K.; Hantoro, W. S.; Drysdale, R.; Hellstrom, J.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R.; Zhao, J.; Griffiths, M. L.

2012-12-01

Speleothem 18O/16O records from China and Borneo have revealed changes in Asian monsoon rainfall over the last ~570,000 years (e.g. Wang et al. 2008, Cheng et al. 2010, Meckler et al. 2012), yet little is known about orbital- and millennial-scale climate change in the 'southern half' of the Australasian monsoon domain. To fill this gap, we aim to build speleothem 18O/16O records for the seasonal monsoon rainfall belt of south-central Indonesia. Between 2006 and 2011, we sampled speleothems in Flores and southwest Sulawesi (latitudes 5-9oS) with U-series ages extending to 92,000 yBP and ~470,000 yBP, respectively. Development of the 18O/16O records for Sulawesi is in progress, but the basal ages of the speleothems (onset of stalagmite growth) are intriguing because they cluster around glacial terminations, when the East Asian monsoon is known to have been weak (Cheng et al. 2010). There is clear antiphasing of the Flores and China speleothem 18O/16O records on precession time-scales over the last ~90,000 years. A distinct maximum in monsoon rainfall in Flores occurred ~21,000 yBP, suggesting the ITCZ moved south during the Last Glacial Maximum in response to the southern hemisphere summer insolation maximum. This finding indicates that ITCZ positioning in tropical Australasia, through its influence on large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation, could have played a key role in the rapid rise of atmospheric CO2 and global warming that ultimately led to the demise of the last ice age, as summarised by Denton et al. (2010) and others. The new Flores speleothem 18O/16O records also show that climate change in the North Atlantic region and Australasian monsoon rainfall are inextricably linked on millennial timescales (Griffiths et al. 2009, Lewis et al. 2011). For example, rapid warming in the North Atlantic region during Dansgaard-Oeschger Event 21 (~86,000 yBP) was linked to a synchronous northward shift of the Australasian ITCZ, marking the final demise of MIS 5b. In contrast, cooling in the North Atlantic during Heinrich Events 3 (~30,000 yBP) and 1 (~16,000 yBP) and the YD (12,800-11,500 yBP) correlates with southward shifts in the Australasian ITCZ. However, the 8,200 yBP cold snap in the North Atlantic produced drying and cooling around Flores. The key difference here is that sea level was relatively high, and cooler sea-surface temperatures in the Indonesian maritime continent at that time (based on nearby coral records) may have suppressed a southward migration of the ITCZ. Cheng, H. et al. (2010), Science, 326, 248-. Denton, G.H. et al. (2010), Science, 328, 1652-. Griffiths, M.L. et al. (2009), Nature Geoscience, 2, 636-. Lewis, S.C. et al. (2011), Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 303, 133-. Meckler et al. (2012), Science, 336, 1301-. Wang, Y. et al. (2008), Nature, 451, 1090-.

Comment on "'Elevated Heat Pump' Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: 'Grounded' in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2011-01-01

In their recent paper, Nigam and Bollasina [2010] (hereinafter NB) claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the elevated heat pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Kim, 2006]. We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from their own out of context interpretation of the hypothesis. NB argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May, are evidence against the EHP hypothesis. Their argument cannot be justified. First, Lau and Kim [2006] (hereinafter LK06) never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are nonlocal in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. As shown in Figure 4 of LK06, while the aerosol anomalies are strongest in April-May, the strongest rainfall response is in June-July, with the enhanced rainfall fed by an induced thermally driven circulation which brings additional moisture from the ocean to the Indian subcontinent. Third, the increased rainfall over the Bay of Bengal as shown in Figure 1a of NB and the increased low-level convergence in Figure 1f of NB do not necessarily reflect responses associated with EHP but rather the large ]scale circulation that provides the buildup of the aerosols before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no washout by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols. For the same reason, the spatial distributions of rainfall and aerosol generally are offset with each other, i.e., high aerosol in regions of low rainfall. This is evident in Figure 1, which shows the climatological mean of the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), and TRMM rainfall over India in May. The maximum AOD is found over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the desert regions of northwest India and Pakistan

Reconstruction of the Indian monsoon variability and its environmental impacts over the northwestern Arabian Sea and its surrounding continents since the Last Glacial Maximum: Multi-proxy study of a marine core in the Gulf of Aden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiem, F.; Bassinot, F. C.; Lézine, A. M.

2016-12-01

Core MD92-1002 retrieved from the Gulf of Aden provides a unique paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic record to study the evolution of continental and marine environments since 20 ka. Palynological analyses (pollen grains, spores, dinoflagellate cysts) were performed and data were combined with geochemical (δ18O, X-Ray Fluorescence) and sedimentological parameters (sedimentation rates, Total Organic Carbon (TOC)). Pollen grains reveal regional hyper-arid conditions during the glacial period, characterized by sparse vegetation cover of Saharo-Sindian origin. The abundance of steppic taxa associated with charcoal fragments suggests strong wind activity. Humidity tracers increased from 14.9 ka and reached their maximum between 9 and 7.5 ka. This maximum is characterized by the development of the tropical mangrove Rhizophora in the Gulf of Aden, reflecting tropical conditions with summer monsoon rains. The timing of events deduced from palynological records and continental data such as lacustrine and palustrine deposits and speleothems from Socotra and Oman, reveals a northward and westward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) summer position at the onset of the Holocene Humid Period (HHP). Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages suggest that the glacial period was characterized by weakened upwellings and well-ventilated bottom water. Primary productivity in the Gulf of Aden increased from 14.5 ka and reached its maximum during the glacial/interglacial transition between 12.6 and 10.8 ka. It took place about 3 ka earlier than the peak intensity of upwellings off the Oman margin, which is associated with the maximum of SW monsoonal winds. This singularity could be explained by the landlocked position of the gulf, at the junction between two orthogonal wind regimes during the boreal summer season (SW monsoon winds prevailing to the East of the Gulf, while NW winds blow along the main axis of the Red Sea to the West). TOC analysis reveals a Glacial-Interglacial variability that is largely decoupled from our reconstruction of surface productivity, suggesting that organic content is mainly controlled by preservation at the sea floor.

The Holocene Indian Summer Monsoon Variability Recorded in a Stalagmite From NE India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breitenbach, S.; Plessen, B.; Oberhänsli, H.; Marwan, N.; Lund, D.; Adkins, J.; Günther, D.; Fricker, M.; Haug, G.

2007-12-01

South Asian economies depend on the timely onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), but understanding of the ISM variability is incomplete, due to lack of information on past ISM. Our stalagmite is the first well-dated climate record from the heart of the ISM region spanning the past 11,000 years. The speleothem was collected from Krem Umsynrang Cave, located 825 m above sea level in NE India. This region is influenced by the ISM, with more than 75% of annual rainfall falling during the monsoon season. The chronology of the stalagmite is based on 36 U/Th multi-collector ICP MS dates. Our data reveal profound changes in ISM rainfall and moisture balance. A strong increase of the ISM between 11.4 and 9.3 kyr BP is followed by a gradual decline over the course of the Holocene. This may be best explained by a strong coupling between ISM and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), with a stronger ISM during a more northerly position of the ITCZ. This long-term trend is punctuated by centennial to multi- to sub-decadal events of a weaker ISM. The most pronounced events occurred at 10.7, 8.5-8.1, 7.4, 4.4-4.0, 3.5, 1.4, 0.3 kyr BP. The δ13C record is interpreted to reflect centennial to decadal changes in the drip rate of the stalagmite. δ13C fractionation during periods of higher drip rates (i.e. times of longer residence time of percolating water) correspond with periods of a weaker ISM as inferred from our δ18O record. Our record shows in great detail periods of weaker ISM. They provide new insights on the sensitivity of terrestrial climate archives on the Indian subcontinent. Drought events recorded in our stalagmite correspond well with intervals of severe aridity known from other regions of the Asian monsoon. Moreover, our 11,000 year climate record shows that NE India experienced its driest conditions during the last three millennia.

Climate-driven sediment aggradation and incision since the late Pleistocene in the NW Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Saptarshi; Thiede, Rasmus C.; Schildgen, Taylor F.; Wittmann, Hella; Bookhagen, Bodo; Scherler, Dirk; Jain, Vikrant; Strecker, Manfred R.

2016-09-01

Deciphering the response of sediment routing systems to climatic forcing is fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on landscape evolution. In the Kangra Basin (northwest Sub-Himalaya, India), upper Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fills and fluvial terraces record periodic fluctuations of sediment supply and transport capacity on timescales of 103 to 105 yr. To evaluate the potential influence of climate change on these fluctuations, we compare the timing of aggradation and incision phases recorded within remnant alluvial fans and terraces with climate archives. New surface-exposure dating of six terrace levels with in-situ cosmogenic 10Be indicates the onset of incision phases. Two terrace surfaces from the highest level (T1) sculpted into the oldest preserved alluvial fan (AF1) date back to 53.4 ± 3.2 ka and 43.0 ± 2.7 ka (1σ). T2 surfaces sculpted into the remnants of AF1 have exposure ages of 18.6 ± 1.2 ka and 15.3 ± 0.9 ka, while terraces sculpted into the upper Pleistocene-Holocene fan (AF2) provide ages of 9.3 ± 0.4 ka (T3), 7.1 ± 0.4 ka (T4), 5.2 ± 0.4 ka (T5) and 3.6 ± 0.2 ka (T6). Together with previously published OSL ages yielding the timing of aggradation, we find a correlation between variations in sediment transport with oxygen-isotope records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon. During periods of increased monsoon intensity and post-Last Glacial Maximum glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux, whereas periods of weakened monsoon intensity or lower sediment supply coincide with incision.

Continuous and simultaneous measurements of precipitation and vapor isotopes over two monsoon seasons during 2016-2017 in Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackisch, D.; He, S.; Ong, M. R.; Goodkin, N.

2017-12-01

Water isotopes are important tracers of climate dynamics and their measurement can provide valuable insights into the relationship between isotopes and atmospheric parameters and overall convective activities. While most studies provide data on daily or even monthly time scales, high-temporal in-situ stable isotope measurements are scarce, especially in the tropics. In this study, we presented δ18O and δ2H values in precipitation and vapor continuously and simultaneously measured using laser spectroscopy in Singapore during the 2016/2017 Northeast (NE) Asian monsoon and 2017 Southwest (SW) Asian monsoon. We found that δ-values of precipitation and vapor exhibit quite different patterns during individual events, although there is a significant correlation between the δ-values of precipitation and of vapor. δ-values in precipitation during individual precipitation events show a distinct V-shape pattern, with the lowest isotope values observed in the middle of the event. However, isotopes in water vapor mostly show an L-shape and are characterized by a gradual decrease with the onset of rainfall. The difference in δ-values of precipitation and vapor is generally constant during the early stage of the events but gradually increases near the end. It is likely that vapor and precipitation are closer to equilibrium at the early stage of a rain event, but diverge at the later stages. This divergence can be largely attributed to the evaporation of raindrops. We notice a frequent drop in d-excess of precipitation, whereas d-excess in vapor increases. In addition, a significant correlation exists between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and isotopes in both precipitation and vapor, suggesting an influence of regional convective activity.

Simulating Changes in Land-Atmosphere Interactions From Expanding Agriculture and Irrigation in India and the Potential Impacts on the Indian Monsoon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, E. M.; Beltran-Przekurat, A.; Niyogi, D.; Pielke, R. A.

2006-05-01

With over 57 million hectares under irrigation in 2002, India has the largest irrigated agricultural area on the planet. Between 80 and 90% of India's water use goes to support irrigated agriculture. The Indian monsoon belt is a home to a large part of the world's population and agriculture is the major land-use activity in the region. Previous results showed that annual vapor fluxes in India have increased by 17% (340 km3) over that which would be expected from a natural (non-agricultural) land cover. Two-thirds of this increase was attributed to irrigated agriculture. The largest increases in vapor and latent heat fluxes occurred where both cropland and irrigated lands were the predominant contemporary land cover classes (particularly northwest and north-central India). Our current study builds upon this work by evaluating possible changes in near-surface energy fluxes and regional atmospheric circulation patterns resulting from the expansion of irrigated agriculture on the Indian sub-continent using a regional atmospheric model RAMS. We investigate three separate land- use scenarios: Scenario 1, with a potential (pre-agricultural) land cover, Scenario 2: the potential land-cover overlain by cropland and Scenario 3: potential land-cover overlain by cropland and irrigated area. We will assess the impact of agricultural land-cover conversion and intensive irrigation on water and energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere and how these flux changes may affect regional weather patterns. The simulation period covers July 16-20, 2002 which allow us to assess potential impacts of land-cover changes on the onset of the Indian Monsoon.

Monsoon-induced changes in the size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass and production rate in the estuarine and coastal waters of southwest coast of India.

PubMed

Madhu, N V; Jyothibabu, R; Balachandran, K K

2010-07-01

Changes in the autotrophic pico- (0.2-2 microm), nano- (2-20 microm), and microplankton (>20 microm) biomass (chlorophyll a) and primary production were measured in the estuarine and coastal waters off Cochin, southwest coast of India during the onset and establishment of a monsoon. During this period, the estuary was dominated by nutrient-rich freshwater, whereas the coastal waters were characterized with higher salinity values (>30 psu) and less nutrients. The average surface chlorophyll a concentrations and primary production rates were higher in the estuary (average 13.7 mg m(-3) and 432 mgC m(-3) day(-1)) as compared to the coastal waters (5.3 mg m(-3) and 224 mgC m(-3) day(-1)). The nanoplankton community formed the major fraction of chlorophyll a and primary production, both in the estuary (average 85 +/- SD 8.3% and 81.2 +/- SD 3.2%) and the coastal waters (average 73.2 +/- SD 17.2% and 81.9 +/- 15.7%). Nanoplankton had the maximum photosynthetic efficiency in the coastal waters (average 4.8 +/- SD 3.9 mgC mgChl a m(-3) h(-1)), whereas in the estuary, the microplankton had higher photosynthetic efficiency (average 7.4 +/- 7 mgC mgChl a m(-3) h(-1)). The heavy cloud cover and increased water column turbidity not only limit the growth of large-sized phytoplankton in the Cochin estuary and coastal waters but also support the proliferation of nanoplankton community during the monsoon season, even though large variation in nanoplankton chlorophyll a and production exists between these two areas.

Aridification of the Sahara desert caused by Tethys Sea shrinkage during the Late Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhongshi; Ramstein, Gilles; Schuster, Mathieu; Li, Camille; Contoux, Camille; Yan, Qing

2014-09-01

It is widely believed that the Sahara desert is no more than ~2-3 million years (Myr) old, with geological evidence showing a remarkable aridification of north Africa at the onset of the Quaternary ice ages. Before that time, north African aridity was mainly controlled by the African summer monsoon (ASM), which oscillated with Earth's orbital precession cycles. Afterwards, the Northern Hemisphere glaciation added an ice volume forcing on the ASM, which additionally oscillated with glacial-interglacial cycles. These findings led to the idea that the Sahara desert came into existence when the Northern Hemisphere glaciated ~2-3 Myr ago. The later discovery, however, of aeolian dune deposits ~7 Myr old suggested a much older age, although this interpretation is hotly challenged and there is no clear mechanism for aridification around this time. Here we use climate model simulations to identify the Tortonian stage (~7-11 Myr ago) of the Late Miocene epoch as the pivotal period for triggering north African aridity and creating the Sahara desert. Through a set of experiments with the Norwegian Earth System Model and the Community Atmosphere Model, we demonstrate that the African summer monsoon was drastically weakened by the Tethys Sea shrinkage during the Tortonian, allowing arid, desert conditions to expand across north Africa. Not only did the Tethys shrinkage alter the mean climate of the region, it also enhanced the sensitivity of the African monsoon to orbital forcing, which subsequently became the major driver of Sahara extent fluctuations. These important climatic changes probably caused the shifts in Asian and African flora and fauna observed during the same period, with possible links to the emergence of early hominins in north Africa.

Aridification of the Sahara desert caused by Tethys Sea shrinkage during Late Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Ramstein, G.; Schuster, M.; Li, C.; Contoux, C.; Yan, Q.

2014-12-01

It is widely believed that the Sahara desert is no more than ~2-3 million years (Myr) old, with geological evidence showing a remarkable aridification of north Africa at the onset of the Quaternary ice ages. Before that time, north African aridity was mainly controlled by the African summer monsoon (ASM), which oscillated with Earth's orbital precession cycles. Afterwards, the Northern Hemisphere glaciation added an ice volume forcing on the ASM, which additionally oscillated with glacial-interglacial cycles. These findings led to the idea that the Sahara desert came into existence when the Northern Hemisphere glaciated ~2-3 Myr ago. The later discovery, however, of aeolian dune deposits ~7 Myr old suggested a much older age, although this interpretation is hotly challenged and there is no clear mechanism for aridification around this time. Here we use climate model simulations to identify the Tortonian stage (~7-11 Myr ago) of the Late Miocene epoch as the pivotal period for triggering north African aridity and creating the Sahara desert. Through a set of experiments with the Norwegian Earth System Model and the Community Atmosphere Model, we demonstrate that the African summer monsoon was drastically weakened by the Tethys Sea shrinkage during the Tortonian, allowing arid, desert conditions to expand across north Africa. Not only did the Tethys shrinkage alter the mean climate of the region, it also enhanced the sensitivity of the African monsoon to orbital forcing, which subsequently became the major driver of Sahara extent fluctuations. These important climatic changes probably caused the shifts in Asian and African flora and fauna observed during the same period, with possible links to the emergence of early hominins in north Africa.

Coupling of Indian and East Asian Monsoon Precipitation in July-August

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. A.; Fung, I. Y.; Risi, C. M.

2014-12-01

Recent work suggests that summer rainfall in the Indian and East Asian monsoons results from different mechanisms. The onset of intense convection in India is mediated by Hadley Cell transitions, whereas frontal rainfall in China (most notably during Meiyu season in June) arises from forced meridional convergence and zonal heat transport in the wake of the Tibetan Plateau. However, the leading mode of July-August interannual rainfall variability for All-Asia (defined as the region within 68E-140E and 5N-45N) demonstrates a statistically significant coupling between monthly anomalies in India and China. In particular, positive anomalies along the Himalayan Foothills are associated with positive anomalies along the Yangtze River, and also with negative anomalies over central India and northern and southern China. The entire pattern reverses in dry years over the Himalayan Foothills. This coupling is not significantly correlated with ENSO, the leading mode of global interannual variability. We propose that a channel of moisture transport links the Bay of Bengal to the Yangtze River valley across the high terrain of the Yunnan Plateau, on the southeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. This channel only activates in July, when the maximum of moist static energy (MSE) shifts to land, and weakens in September with the cooling of Bay of Bengal SST. Our mechanism is substantiated by analysis of output from the LMDZ5 model, which includes a high-resolution nested grid nudged to reanalysis, improving the simulation of the Indian Monsoon and performance near high topography. Potential changes in moisture transport across the Yunnan Plateau under 21st century warming conditions may lead to modified interannual variability of Asian rainfall.

Revised cloud processes to improve the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in climate forecast system: Part 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhik, S.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Mahakur, M.; Ganai, Malay; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Dudhia, J.

2017-06-01

The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) is being used for operational monsoon prediction over the Indian region. Recent studies indicate that the moist convective process in CFS is one of the major sources of uncertainty in monsoon predictions. In this study, the existing simple cloud microphysics of CFS is replaced by the six-class Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) single moment (WSM6) microphysical scheme. Additionally, a revised convective parameterization is employed to improve the performance of the model in simulating the boreal summer mean climate and intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The revised version of the model (CFSCR) exhibits a potential to improve shortcomings in the seasonal mean precipitation distribution relative to the standard CFS (CTRL), especially over the ISM region. Consistently, notable improvements are also evident in other observed ISM characteristics. These improvements are found to be associated with a better simulation of spatial and vertical distributions of cloud hydrometeors in CFSCR. A reasonable representation of the subgrid-scale convective parameterization along with cloud hydrometeors helps to improve the convective and large-scale precipitation distribution in the model. As a consequence, the simulated low-frequency boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) exhibits realistic propagation and the observed northwest-southeast rainband is well reproduced in CFSCR. Additionally, both the high and low-frequency BSISOs are better captured in CFSCR. The improvement of low and high-frequency BSISOs in CFSCR is shown to be related to a realistic phase relationship of clouds.