Riverine discharges to Chesapeake Bay: Analysis of long-term (1927–2014) records and implications for future flows in the Chesapeake Bay basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen; Moyer, Douglas; Mills, Aaron L.

2017-01-01

The Chesapeake Bay (CB) basin is under a total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandate to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads to the bay. Identifying shifts in the hydro-climatic regime may help explain observed trends in water quality. To identify potential shifts, hydrologic data (1927–2014) for 27 watersheds in the CB basin were analyzed to determine the relationships among long-term precipitation and stream discharge trends. The amount, frequency, and intensity of precipitation increased from 1910 to 1996 in the eastern U.S., with the observed increases greater in the northeastern U.S. than the southeastern U.S. The CB watershed spans the north-to-south gradient in precipitation increases, and hydrologic differences have been observed in watersheds north relative to watersheds south of the Pennsylvania—Maryland (PA-MD) border. Time series of monthly mean precipitation data specific to each of 27 watersheds were derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset, and monthly mean stream-discharge data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage records. All annual precipitation trend slopes in the 18 watersheds north of the PA-MD border were greater than or equal to those of the nine south of that border. The magnitude of the trend slopes for 1927–2014 in both precipitation and discharge decreased in a north-to-south pattern. Distributions of the monthly precipitation and discharge datasets were assembled into percentiles for each year for each watershed. Multivariate correlation of precipitation and discharge within percentiles among the groups of northern and southern watersheds indicated only weak associations. Regional-scale average behaviors of trends in the distribution of precipitation and discharge annual percentiles differed between the northern and southern watersheds. In general, the linkage between precipitation and discharge was weak, with the linkage weaker in the northern watersheds compared to those in the south. On the basis of simple linear regression, 26 of the 27 watersheds are projected to have higher annual mean discharge in 2025, the target date for implementation of the TMDL for the CB basin.

Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends, Seasonal Cycle, Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes.

PubMed

Humphrey, Vincent; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I

Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in terrestrial water storage. While an increasing number of case studies have provided a rich overview on regional analyses, a global assessment on the dominant features of GRACE variability is still lacking. To address this, we survey key features of temporal variability in the GRACE record by decomposing gridded time series of monthly equivalent water height into linear trends, inter-annual, seasonal, and subseasonal (intra-annual) components. We provide an overview of the relative importance and spatial distribution of these components globally. A correlation analysis with precipitation and temperature reveals that both the inter-annual and subseasonal anomalies are tightly related to fluctuations in the atmospheric forcing. As a novelty, we show that for large regions of the world high-frequency anomalies in the monthly GRACE signal, which have been partly interpreted as noise, can be statistically reconstructed from daily precipitation once an adequate averaging filter is applied. This filter integrates the temporally decaying contribution of precipitation to the storage changes in any given month, including earlier precipitation. Finally, we also survey extreme dry anomalies in the GRACE record and relate them to documented drought events. This global assessment sets regional studies in a broader context and reveals phenomena that had not been documented so far.

Lessons learned from oxygen isotopes in modern precipitation applied to interpretation of speleothem records of paleoclimate from eastern Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayem, Katherine E.; Molnar, Peter; Battisti, David S.; Roe, Gerard H.

2010-06-01

Variability in oxygen isotope ratios collected from speleothems in Chinese caves is often interpreted as a proxy for variability of precipitation, summer precipitation, seasonality of precipitation, and/or the proportion of 18O to 16O of annual total rainfall that is related to a strengthening or weakening of the East Asian monsoon and, in some cases, to the Indian monsoon. We use modern reanalysis and station data to test whether precipitation and temperature variability over China can be related to changes in climate in these distant locales. We find that annual and rainy season precipitation totals in each of central China, south China, and east India have correlation length scales of ∼ 500 km, shorter than the distance between many speleothem records that share similar long-term time variations in δ18O values. Thus the short distances of correlation do not support, though by themselves cannot refute, the idea that apparently synchronous variations in δ18O values at widely spaced (> 500 km) caves in China are due to variations in annual precipitation amounts. We also evaluate connections between climate variables and δ18O values using available instrumental measurements of δ18O values in precipitation. These data, from stations in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), show that monthly δ18O values generally do not correlate well with either local precipitation amount or local temperature, and the degree to which monthly δ18O values do correlate with them varies from station to station. For the few locations that do show significant correlations between δ18O values and precipitation amount, we estimate the differences in precipitation amount that would be required to account for peak-to-peak differences in δ18O values in the speleothems from Hulu and Dongge caves, assuming that δ18O scales with the monthly amount of precipitation or with seasonal differences in precipitation. Insofar as the present-day relationship between δ18O values and monthly precipitation amounts can be applied to past conditions, differences of at least 50% in mean annual precipitation would be required to explain the δ18O variations on orbital time scales, which are implausibly large and inconsistent with published GCM results. Similarly, plausible amplitudes of seasonal cycles in amounts or in seasonal variations in δ18O values can account for less than half of the 4-5‰ difference between glacial and interglacial δ18O values from speleothems in China. If seasonal cycles in precipitation account for the amplitudes of δ18O values on paleoclimate timescales, they might do so by extending or contracting the durations of seasons (a frequency modulation of the annual cycle), but not by simply varying the amplitudes of the monthly rainfall amounts or monthly average δ18O values (amplitude modulation). Allowing that several processes can affect seasonal variability in isotopic content, we explore the possibility that one or more of the following processes contribute to variations in δ18O values in Chinese cave speleothems: different source regions of the precipitation, which bring different values of δ18O in vapor; different pathways between the moisture source and the paleorecord site along which exchange of 18O between vapor, surface water, and condensate might differ; a different mix of processes involving condensation and evaporation within the atmosphere; or different types of precipitation. Each may account for part of the range of δ18O values revealed by speleothems, and each might contribute to seasonal differences between past and present that do not scale with monthly or even seasonal precipitation amounts.

Hydrologic Interpretations of Long-Term Gravity Records at Tucson, Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, D. R.; Kennedy, J.; MacQueen, P.; Niebauer, T. M.

2016-12-01

The USGS Arizona Water Science Center monitors groundwater storage using gravity methods at sites across the western United States. A site at the USGS office in Tucson serves as a test station that has been monitored since 1997 using several types of gravity meters. Prior to 2007, the site was observed twice each year by the National Geodetic Survey using an FG5 absolute gravity meter for the purpose of establishing control for local relative gravity surveys of aquifer storage change. Beginning in 2003 the site has also served as a reference to verify the accuracy of an A10 absolute gravity meter that is used for field surveys. The site is in an alluvial basin where gravity can vary with aquifer storage change caused by variable groundwater withdrawals, elevation change caused by aquifer compaction or expansion, and occasional recharge. In addition, continuous gravity records were collected for periods of several months using a super-conducting meter during 2010-2011 and using a spring-based gPhone meter during 2015-2016. The purpose of the continuous records was to provide more precise information about monthly and shorter period variations that could be related to variations in nearby groundwater withdrawals. The record of absolute gravity observations displays variations of as much as 35 microGal that correspond with local hydrologic variations documented from precipitation, streamflow, elevation, depths to water, and well pumping records. Depth to water in nearby wells display variations related to occasional local heavy precipitation events, runoff, recharge, and groundwater withdrawals. Increases in gravity that occur over periods of several months or longer correspond with occasional heavy precipitation and recharge. Periods of gravity decline occur during extended periods between recharge events and periods of increased local groundwater withdrawals. Analysis of the continuous records from both instruments indicate that groundwater drains slowly from storage in response to pumping variations, requiring several days or longer for the aquifer to drain, which is consistent with other hydrologic records.

Long term statistics (1845-2014) of daily runoff maxima, monthly rainfall and runoff in the Adda basin (Italian Alps) under natural and anthropogenic changes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranzi, Roberto; Goatelli, Federica; Castioni, Camilla; Tomirotti, Massimo; Crespi, Alice; Mattea, Enrico; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio

2017-04-01

A new time series of daily runoff reconstructed at the inflow in the Como Lake in the Italian Alps is presented. The time series covers a 170 years time period and includes the two largest floods ever recorded for the region: the 1868 and 1987 ones. Statistics of annual maxima show a decrease which is not statistically significant and a decrease of annual runoff which is statistically significant, instead. To investigate the possible reasons of such changes monthly temperature and precipitation are analysed. Decrease of runoff peaks can be justified by the increase of reservoir storage volumes. Evapotranspiration indexes based on monthly temperature indicate an increase of evapotranspiration losses as a possible cause of runoff decrease. Secular precipitation series for the Adda basin are then computed by a methodology projecting observational data onto a high-resolution grid (30-arc-second, DEM GTOPO30). It is based on the assumption that the spatio-temporal behaviour of a meteorological variable over a given area can be described by superimposing two fields: the climatological normals over a reference period, i.e. the climatologies, and the departure from them, i.e. the anomalies. The two fields can be reconstructed independently and are based on different datasets. To compute the precipitation climatologies all the available stations within the Adda basin are considered while, for the anomalies, only the longest and the most homogeneous records are selected. To this aim, a great effort was made to extend these series to the past as much as possible, also by digitising the historical records available from the hardcopy archives. The climatological values at each DEM cell of the Adda basin are obtained by a local weighted linear regression of precipitation versus elevation (LWLR) taking into account the closest stations with similar geographical characteristics to those of the cell itself. The anomaly field is obtained by a weighted average of the anomalies of neighbouring stations considering both the distance and the elevation differences between the stations and the considered cell. Finally, the secular precipitation records at each DEM cell of the Adda basin are computed by multiplying the local estimated anomalies for the corresponding climatological values. A statistically significant decreasing trend of precipitation results from the Man Kendall and Sen-Theil tests.

A 305 year monthly rainfall series for the Island of Ireland (1711-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Burt, Tim P.; Broderick, Ciaran; Duffy, Catriona; Macdonald, Neil; Matthews, Tom; McCarthy, Mark P.; Mullan, Donal; Noone, Simon; Ryan, Ciara; Thorne, Peter; Walsh, Seamus; Wilby, Robert L.

2017-04-01

This paper derives a continuous 305-year monthly rainfall series for the Island of Ireland (IoI) for the period 1711-2016. Two key data sources are employed: i) a previously unpublished UK Met Office Note which compiled annual rainfall anomalies and corresponding monthly per mille amounts from weather diaries and early observational records for the period 1711-1977; and ii) a long-term, homogenised monthly IoI rainfall series for the period 1850-2016. Using estimates of long-term average precipitation sampled from the quality assured series, the full record is reconstituted and insights drawn regarding notable periods and the range of climate variability and change experienced. Consistency with other long records for the region is examined, including: the England and Wales Precipitation series (EWP; 1766-2016); the early EWP Glasspoole series (1716-1765) and the Central England Temperature series (CET; 1711-2016). Strong correspondence between all records is noted from 1780 onwards. While disparities are evident between the early EWP and Ireland series, the latter shows strong decadal consistency with CET throughout the record. In addition, independent, early observations from Cork and Dublin, along with available documentary sources, corroborate the derived series and add confidence to our reconstruction. The new IoI rainfall record reveals that the wettest decades occurred in the early 18th Century, despite the fact that IoI has experienced a long-term winter wetting trend consistent with climate model projections. These exceptionally wet winters of the 1720s and 1730s were concurrent with almost unprecedented warmth in the CET, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia, and glacial retreat in West Greenland, consistent with a wintertime NAO-type forcing. Our study therefore demonstrates the value of long-term observational records for providing insight to the natural climate variability of the North Atlantic region.

Evaluating satellite-derived long-term historical precipitation datasets for drought monitoring in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano, Francisco; Wardlow, Brian; Tadesse, Tsegaye

2016-10-01

Precipitation is a key parameter for the study of climate change and variability and the detection and monitoring of natural disaster such as drought. Precipitation datasets that accurately capture the amount and spatial variability of rainfall is critical for drought monitoring and a wide range of other climate applications. This is challenging in many parts of the world, which often have a limited number of weather stations and/or historical data records. Satellite-derived precipitation products offer a viable alternative with several remotely sensed precipitation datasets now available with long historical data records (+30 years), which include the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) datasets. This study presents a comparative analysis of three historical satellite-based precipitation datasets that include Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B43 version 7 (1998-2015), PERSIANN-CDR (1983-2015) and CHIRPS 2.0 (1981-2015) over Chile to assess their performance across the country and evaluate their applicability for agricultural drought evaluation when used in the calculation of commonly used drought indicator as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this analysis, 278 weather stations of in-situ rainfall measurements across Chile were initially compared to the satellite-based precipitation estimates. The study area (Chile) was divided into five latitudinal zones: North, North-Central, Central, South-Central and South to determine if there were a regional difference among these satellite-based estimates. Nine statistics were used to evaluate the performance of satellite products to estimate the amount and spatial distribution of historical rainfall across Chile. Hierarchical cluster analysis, k-means and singular value decomposition were used to analyze these datasets to better understand their similarities and differences in characterizing rainfall patterns across Chile. Monthly analysis showed that all satellite products highly overestimated precipitation in the arid North zone. However, there were no major difference between all three products from North to South-Central zones. Though, in the South zone, PERSIANN-CDR shows the lowest fit with high underestimation, further CHIRPS 2.0 and TMPA 3B43 v7 had better agreement with in-situ measurements. The accuracy of satellite products were highly dependent on the amount of monthly rainfall with the best results found during winter seasons and in zones (Central to South) with higher amounts of precipitation. PERSIANN-CDR and CHIRPS 2.0 were used to derive SPI at time-scale of 1, 3 and 6 months, both satellite products presented similar results when it was compared in-situ against satellite SPI's. Because of its higher spatial resolution that allows better characterizing of spatial variation in precipitation pattern, the CHIRPS 2.0 was used to mapping the SPI-3 over Chile. The results of this study show that in order to use the CHIRPS 2.0 and PERSIANN-CDR data sets in Chile to monitor spatial patterns in the rainfall and drought intensity conditions, these products should be calibrated to adjust for the overestimation/underestimation of precipitation geographically specially in the North zone and seasonally during the summer and spring months in the other zones.

The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

Isotopic fingerprints of the Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) hydrological system on contemporary carbonates precipitated in the lake.

PubMed

Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Bonk, Alicja; Filipiak, Janusz; Tylmann, Wojciech

2018-06-01

An isotopic monitoring was undertaken in 2012-2014 at Lake Żabińskie (Mazurian Lakeland, NE Poland). The aim was to identify the factors and processes controlling an isotopic composition of the lake water and to explore the mechanism responsible for recording the climatic signal in stable isotope composition of deposited carbonates. δ 18 O and δ 2 H in the precipitation, lake water column, inflows and outflow, δ 18 O and δ 13 C in the carbonate fraction of sediments trapped in the water column were recorded with monthly resolution. A relationship between δ 18 O and δ 2 H in local precipitation was used to estimate the local meteoric water line. The dataset obtained for the water enabled to identify the modification of the water's isotopic composition due to evaporation, connected with seasonal lake water stratification and mixing patterns. Statistically significant correlation coefficients suggest that the δ 18 O of the carbonate fraction in the sediment traps depends on the δ 18 O of rainfall water and on air temperature. The fractionation coefficient α shows that in summer months the carbonate precipitation process is closest to equilibrium. As expected for an exorheic lake, no significant correlation was observed between δ 18 O and δ 13 C in precipitated carbonate.

Two Long-Term Instrumental Climatic Data Bases of the People's Republic of China (1997)

DOE Data Explorer

Shiyan, T. [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Congbin, Fu [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Zhaomei, Zeng [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Qingyun, Zhang [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Kaiser, D. P.

1991-01-01

Two long-term instrumental data bases containing meteorological observations from the People's Republic of China (PRC) are presented in this NDP . The first version of this database was made available in 1991 by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) as CDIAC NDP-039. This update of the database includes data through 1993. These data sets were compiled in accordance with a joint research agreement signed by the U.S. Department of Energy and the PRC Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) on August 19, 1987. CAS has provided records from 267 stations, partitioned into two networks of 65 and 205 stations, with three stations common to both data bases. The 65-station-network data contain monthly means, extremes, or totals of barometric pressure, air temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, sunshine duration, cloud amount, dominant wind direction and frequency, wind speed, and number of days with snow cover. Station histories are available from 59 of the 65 stations. The 205-station-network data contain monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals; however, station histories are not currently available. Sixteen stations from these data sets (13 from the 65-station, 3 from the 205-station) have temperature and/or precipitation records beginning before 1900, whereas the remaining stations began observing in the early to mid-1900s.

Documentary evidence for the study of droughts in the Czech Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Řezníčková, Ladislava; Brázdil, Rudolf; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert

2015-04-01

The study of droughts in the instrumental period can be based on various drought indices calculated usually from precipitation and temperature series. Documentary evidence, overlapping partly also with meteorological measurements, represents another important source utilisable particularly for the pre-instrumental period. Direct reports of drought or indirect indications of its impacts may be found in various individual or institutional sources: narrative written sources (annals, chronicles, commemorative records), weather diaries, personal and official correspondence, stall-keepers' and market songs, journalism, financial-economic records, religious sources (rogations, sermons, praying), special printed sources, chronograms, epigraphic sources ("hunger" stones). Corresponding data indicate directly meteorological drought and with describing of drought impacts also agricultural and hydrological droughts. The first credible direct drought information from the Czech Lands reports not any rain or snowfall during the 1090/1091 winter (Monk of Sázava). But data before AD 1500 are relatively scarce and they are related prevailingly to Bohemia. Density of precipitation/drought documentary records in the Czech Lands increases significantly after 1500. This allows create series of precipitation indices with classification of dry months in the scale -1 as dry, -2 as very dry and -3 as extremely dry month. Such dataset is important for the creation of 500-year Czech drought chronology.

Implications of a decrease in the precipitation area for the past and the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benestad, Rasmus E.

2018-04-01

The total area with 24 hrs precipitation has shrunk by 7% between 50°S–50°N over the period 1998–2016, according to the satellite-based Tropical Rain Measurement Mission data. A decrease in the daily precipitation area is an indication of profound changes in the hydrological cycle, where the global rate of precipitation is balanced by the global rate of evaporation. This decrease was accompanied by increases in total precipitation, evaporation, and wet-day mean precipitation. If these trends are real, then they suggest increased drought frequencies and more intense rainfall. Satellite records, however, may be inhomogeneous because they are synthesised from a number of individual missions with improved technology over time. A linear dependency was also found between the global mean temperature and the 50°S–50°N daily precipitation area with a slope value of ‑17 × 106 km 2/°C. This dependency was used with climate model simulations to make future projections which suggested a continued decrease that will strengthen in the future. The precipitation area evolves differently when the precipitation is accumulated over short and long time scales, however, and there has been a slight increase in the monthly precipitation area while the daily precipitation area decreased. An increase on monthly scale may indicate more pronounced variations in the rainfall patterns due to migrating rain-producing phenomena.

Stable isotope record in annually laminated lake sediments from Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) for the last millennium.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabryś, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Tylmann, Wojciech; Bonk, Alicja; Filipiak, Janusz; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Hernandez-Almeida, Ivan; Grosjean, Martin

2015-04-01

Stable isotope record of carbon (13C) and oxygen (18O) has been analysed from an annually laminated sediment from Lake Zabinskie (Mazurian Lakeland, NE Poland) with high resolution (1-3 yrs). The sediment layers which were formed in each year during the last millennium contain information about environmental changes in the past. The calcite layers are formed in lake sediment in warm months of the year, therefore the reconstruction of summer climate variables in the past is potentially possible. The investigation of correlation between isotope dataset and instrumental climate data for years 1897-2008 AD confirmed that theory. The record of temperature, precipitation and SPEI (Standardised Precipitation Evaporation Index) coefficient, which is a combination of both temperature and precipitation, was tested. The strongest linear correlations were found for most samples for June, July, August (JJA) months but in some cases the correlation coefficient was stronger when also May was taken into account. For the whole 120-yrs series the correlation between δ18O and average JJA temperature is 0.007, average JJA precipitation is 0.16 and average JJA SPEI is 0.20. Analyzing the results for 1897-2008 we can distinguish period 1960-2008 with relevantly stronger correlations: R(temperature) = 0.19, R(precipitation) = 0.20 and R(SPEI) = 0.45. This period is connected with cessation of human activity close to Lake Zabinskie. Reconstruction of climate variables for the last millennium was made using transfer function obtained for calibration period (1897-2008). Reconstructions showed that known climate extremes like Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age with Sporer (1420-1570), Maunder (1645-1715) and Dalton (1790-1820) Minimum was recorded in sediment from Lake Zabinskie. The presented study is a part of the project "Climate of northern Poland during the last 1000 years: Constraining the future with the past (CLIMPOL)", funded within Polish-Swiss Research Programme. http://www.climpol.ug.edu.pl

Rainfall Type as a Dominant Control of the Isotopic Composition of Precipitation in the South Central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, C.; Shanahan, T. M.; Partin, J. W.

2017-12-01

The processes that control the isotopic composition of precipitation in the mid-latitudes are understudied compared to the high and low latitudes, but are critical for interpreting paleo records using isotope proxies. To better understand these processes, we investigated changes of isotopic composition of rainwater in Central Texas using 20 months of event-based rainwater collection. We find that in both the event-based data and the monthly data from the Waco GNIP station, the dominant control on the isotopic composition of precipitation is the proportion that is derived from convective systems. This finding is consistent with previously reported data largely from tropical localities (Aggarwal et al., 2016), where large organized convective systems lead to high rainfall amounts and isotopically depleted precipitation. Although there are seasonal differences in the dominant rainfall types over the South Central US, with winter precipitation almost entirely stratiform, seasonality plays very little role in the net isotopic composition of precipitation because the total contribution during winter is small compared with spring, summer and fall. We also find that changes of source have little effect on the isotopic composition of rainfall, as the majority of the moisture is derived from the Gulf of Mexico with little influence of reevaporation or mixing. The majority of the warm season precipitation in the South Central US occurs in association with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the development of these systems plays a critical role in the overall isotopic signature of precipitation. MCSs are characterized by a combination of intense, organized convection at their leading edges and trailing stratiform precipitation. Larger MCSs tend to contain higher proportions of stratiform rainfall and as a result, have isotopically depleted values. Proxy records from this region displaying more negative isotope values in the past should therefore be interpreted with caution as they could reflect either increases in cool versus warm season precipitation or changes in the intensity of warm season MCSs.

Holocene climate variability revealed by oxygen isotope analysis of Sphagnum cellulose from Walton Moss, northern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daley, T. J.; Barber, K. E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Loader, N. J.; Marshall, J. D.; Crowley, S. F.; Fisher, E. H.

2010-07-01

Stable isotope analyses of Sphagnum alpha-cellulose, precipitation and bog water from three sites across northwestern Europe (Raheenmore, Ireland, Walton Moss, northern England and Dosenmoor, northern Germany) over a total period of 26 months were used to investigate the nature of the climatic signal recorded by Sphagnum moss. The δ18O values of modern alpha-cellulose tracked precipitation more closely than bog water, with a mean isotopic fractionation factor αcellulose-precipitation of 1.0274 ± 0.001 (1 σ) (≈27‰). Sub-samples of isolated Sphagnum alpha-cellulose were subsequently analysed from core WLM22, Walton Moss, northern England yielding a Sphagnum-specific isotope record spanning the last 4300 years. The palaeo-record, calibrated using the modern data, provides evidence for large amplitude variations in the estimated oxygen isotope composition of precipitation during the mid- to late Holocene. Estimates of palaeotemperature change derived from statistical relationships between modern surface air temperatures and δ18O precipitation values for the British Isles give unrealistically large variation in comparison to proxies from other archives. We conclude that use of such relationships to calibrate mid-latitude palaeo-data must be undertaken with caution. The δ18O record from Sphagnum cellulose was highly correlated with a palaeoecologically-derived index of bog surface wetness (BSW), suggesting a common climatic driver.

Comparison between weather station data in south-eastern Italy and CRU precipitation datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miglietta, D.

2009-04-01

Monthly precipitation data in south-eastern Italy from 1920 to 2005 have been extensively analyzed. Data were collected in almost 200 weather stations located 10-20km apart from each other and almost uniformly distributed in Puglia and Basilicata regions. Apart from few years around world war II, time series are mostly complete and allow a reliable reconstruction of climate variability in the considered region. Statistically significant trends have been studied by applying the Mann-Kendall test to annual, seasonal and monthly values. A comparison has been made between observations and precipitation data given by the Climate Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, with both low (30') and high (10') space resolution grid. In particular, rainfall records, time series behaviors and annual cycles at each station have been compared to the corresponding CRU data. CRU time series show a large negative trend for winter since 1970. Trend is not significant if the whole 20th century is considered (both for the whole year and for winter only). This might be considered as an evidence of recent acceleration towards increasingly dry conditions. However correlation between CRU data and observations is not very high and large percent errors are present mainly in the mountains regions, where observations show a large annual cycle, with intense precipitation in winter, which is not present in CRU data. To identify trends, therefore observed data are needed, even at monthly scale. In particular observations confirm the overall trend, but also indicate large spatial variability, with locations where precipitation has even increased since 1970. Daily precipitation data coming from a subset of weather stations have also been studied for the same time period. The distributions of maximum annual rainfalls, wet spells and dry spells were analyzed for each station, together with their time series. The tools of statistical analysis of extremes have been used in order to evaluate return values and their space distribution over the considered region. A procedure for data quality control and homogeneity test on monthly rainfall records is also being applied, while kriging techniques are being developed in order to fully understand rainfall climatology in south-eastern Italy.

Use of TRMM Rainfall Information in Improving Long-Term, Satellite-Based Global Precipitation Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor); Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric

2002-01-01

The TRMM rainfall products are inter-compared among themselves and to the 23 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/ GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Ways in which the TRMM-based estimates can be used to improve the long-term data set are described. These include improvement of the passive microwave algorithm that is applied to the 15 year SSM/I record and calibration or adjustment of the current GPCP fields utilizing the 4-5 year overlap of TRMM and GPCP. A comparison of the GPCP monthly surface precipitation fields and the TRMM-based multi-satellite analyses indicates that the two are similar, but have significant differences that relate to the different input data sets. Although on a zonal average basis over the ocean the two analyses are similar in the deep Tropics, there are subtle differences between the eastern and western Pacific Ocean in the relative magnitudes. In mid-latitudes the GPCP has somewhat larger mean precipitation than TRMM. Statistical comparisons of TRMM and GPCP monthly fields are carried out in terms of histogram matching for both ocean and land regions and for small areas to diagnose differences. These comparisons form the basis for a TRMM calibration of the GPCP fields using matched histograms over regional areas as a function of season. Although final application of this procedure will likely await the Version 6 of the TRMM products, tests using Version 5 are shown that provide a TRMM-calibrated GPCP version that will produce an improved climatology and a more accurate month-to-month precipitation analysis for the last 20 years.

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-02-24

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses.Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states.A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state.A water-balance model was developed for simulating monthly natural (unregulated) mean streamflow based on precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at select streamflow-gaging stations. The model was calibrated using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada, along with natural (unregulated) streamflow data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Correlation coefficients between simulated and natural (unregulated) flows generally were high (greater than 0.8), and the seasonal means and standard deviations of the simulated flows closely matched the means and standard deviations of the natural (unregulated) flows. After calibrating the model for a monthly time step, monthly streamflow for each subbasin was disaggregated into three values per month, or an approximately 10-day time step, and a separate routing model was developed for simulating 10-day streamflow for downstream gages.The stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration was combined with the water-balance model to simulate potential future sequences of 10-day mean streamflow for each of the streamflow-gaging station locations. Flood risk, as determined by equilibrium flow-frequency distributions for the dry (1912–69) and wet (1970–2011) climate states, was considerably higher for the wet state compared to the dry state. Future flood risk will remain high until the wet climate state ends, and for several years after that, because there may be a long lag-time between the return of drier conditions and the onset of a lower soil-moisture storage equilibrium.

Evaluating satellite-derived long-term historical precipitation datasets for drought monitoring in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano, Francisco; Wardlow, Brian; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Lillo-Saavedra, Mario; Lagos, Octavio

2017-04-01

Precipitation is a key parameter for the study of climate change and variability and the detection and monitoring of natural disaster such as drought. Precipitation datasets that accurately capture the amount and spatial variability of rainfall is critical for drought monitoring and a wide range of other climate applications. This is challenging in many parts of the world, which often have a limited number of weather stations and/or historical data records. Satellite-derived precipitation products offer a viable alternative with several remotely sensed precipitation datasets now available with long historical data records (+30years), which include the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) datasets. This study presents a comparative analysis of three historical satellite-based precipitation datasets that include Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B43 version 7 (1998-2015), PERSIANN-CDR (1983-2015) and CHIRPS 2.0 (1981-2015) over Chile to assess their performance across the country and for the case of the two long-term products the applicability for agricultural drought were evaluated when used in the calculation of commonly used drought indicator as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this analysis, 278 weather stations of in situ rainfall measurements across Chile were initially compared to the satellite data. The study area (Chile) was divided into five latitudinal zones: North, North-Central, Central, South-Central and South to determine if there were a regional difference among these satellite products, and nine statistics were used to evaluate their performance to estimate the amount and spatial distribution of historical rainfall across Chile. Hierarchical cluster analysis, k-means and singular value decomposition were used to analyze these datasets to better understand their similarities and differences in characterizing rainfall patterns across Chile. Monthly analysis showed that all satellite products highly overestimated rainfall in the arid North zone. However, there were no major difference between all three products from North to South-Central zones. Though, in the South zone, PERSIANN-CDR shows the lowest fit with high underestimation, while CHIRPS 2.0 and TMPA 3B43 v7 had better agreement with in situ measurements. The accuracy of satellite products were highly dependent on the amount of monthly rainfall with the best results found during winter seasons and in zones (Central to South) with higher amounts of precipitation. PERSIANN-CDR and CHIRPS 2.0 were used to derive SPI at time-scale of 1, 3 and 6 months, both satellite products presented similar results when it was compared in situ against satellite SPI's. Because of its higher spatial resolution that allows better characterizing of spatial variation in precipitation pattern, the CHIRPS 2.0 was used to mapping the SPI-3 over Chile. The results of this study show that in order to use the CHIRPS 2.0 and PERSIANN-CDR datasets in Chile to monitor spatial patterns in the rainfall and drought intensity conditions, these products should be calibrated to adjust for the overestimation/underestimation of rainfall geographically specially in the North zone and seasonally during the summer and spring months in the other zones.

Approaches and Data Quality for Global Precipitation Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, G. J.; Bolvin, D. T.; Nelkin, E. J.

2015-12-01

The space and time scales on which precipitation varies are small compared to the satellite coverage that we have, so it is necessary to merge "all" of the available satellite estimates. Differing retrieval capabilities from the various satellites require inter-calibration for the satellite estimates, while "morphing", i.e., Lagrangian time interpolation, is used to lengthen the period over which time interpolation is valid. Additionally, estimates from geostationary-Earth-orbit infrared data are plentiful, but of sufficiently lower quality compared to low-Earth-orbit passive microwave estimates that they are only used when needed. Finally, monthly surface precipitation gauge data can be used to reduce bias and improve patterns of occurrence for monthly satellite data, and short-interval satellite estimates can be improved with a simple scaling such that they sum to the monthly satellite-gauge combination. The presentation will briefly consider some of the design decisions for practical computation of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission product Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), then examine design choices that maximize value for end users. For example, data fields are provided in the output file that provide insight into the basis for the estimated precipitation, including error, sensor providing the estimate, precipitation phase (solid/liquid), and intermediate precipitation estimates. Another important initiative is successive computations for the same data date/time at longer latencies as additional data are received, which for IMERG is currently done at 6 hours, 16 hours, and 3 months after observation time. Importantly, users require long records for each latency, which runs counter to the data archiving practices at most archive sites. As well, the assignment of Digital Object Identifiers (DOI's) for near-real-time data sets (at 6 and 16 hours for IMERG) is not a settled issue.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended on the period examined. Recent trends in Southwest precipitation are directionally consistent with anthropogenic climate change.

Streamflow characteristics and trends in New Jersey, water years 1897-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Reiser, Robert G.; Nieswand, Steven P.; Schopp, Robert D.

2005-01-01

Streamflow statistics were computed for 111 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of continuous record and for 500 low-flow partial-record stations, including 66 gaging stations with less than 20 years of continuous record. Daily mean streamflow data from water year 1897 through water year 2001 were used for the computations at the gaging stations. (The water year is the 12-month period, October 1 through September 30, designated by the calendar year in which it ends). The characteristics presented for the long-term continuous-record stations are daily streamflow, harmonic mean flow, flow frequency, daily flow durations, trend analysis, and streamflow variability. Low-flow statistics for gaging stations with less than 20 years of record and for partial-record stations were estimated by correlating base-flow measurements with daily mean flows at long-term (more than 20 years) continuous-record stations. Instantaneous streamflow measurements through water year 2003 were used to estimate low-flow statistics at the partial-record stations. The characteristics presented for partial-record stations are mean annual flow; harmonic mean flow; and annual and winter low-flow frequency. The annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low- and high-flow data sets were tested for trends. The results of trend tests for high flows indicate relations between upward trends for high flows and stream regulation, and high flows and development in the basin. The relation between development and low-flow trends does not appear to be as strong as for development and high-flow trends. Monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation data for selected long-term meteorological stations also were tested for trends to analyze the effects of climate. A significant upward trend in precipitation in northern New Jersey, Climate Division 1 was identified. For Climate Division 2, no general increase in average precipitation was observed. Trend test results indicate that high flows at undeveloped, unregulated sites have not been affected by the increase in average precipitation. The ratio of instantaneous peak flow to 3-day mean flow, ratios of flow duration, ratios of high-flow/low-flow frequency, and coefficient of variation were used to define streamflow variability. Streamflow variability was significantly greater among the group of gaging stations located outside the Coastal Plain than among the group of gaging stations located in the Coastal Plain.

Changes in the type of precipitation and associated cloud types in Eastern Romania (1961-2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manea, Ancuta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Tudorache, George; Cărbunaru, Felicia

2016-03-01

Recent climate change is characterized (among other things) by changes in the frequency of some meteorological phenomena. This paper deals with the long-term changes in various precipitation types, and the connection between their variability and cloud type frequencies, at 11 meteorological stations from Eastern Romania over 1961-2008. These stations were selected with respect to data record completeness for all considered variables (weather phenomena and cloud type). The meteorological variables involved in the present study are: monthly number of days with rain, snowfall, snow showers, rain and snow (sleet), sleet showers and monthly frequency of the Cumulonimbus, Nimbostratus and Stratus clouds. Our results show that all stations present statistically significant decreasing trends in the number of days with rain in the warm period of the year. Changes in the frequency of days for each precipitation type show statistically significant decreasing trends for non-convective (stratiform) precipitation - rain, drizzle, sleet and snowfall -, while the frequencies of rain shower and snow shower (convective precipitation) are increasing. Cloud types show decreasing trends for Nimbostratus and Stratus, and increasing trends for Cumulonimbus.

Monitoring and seasonal forecasting of meteorological droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutra, Emanuel; Pozzi, Will; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Magnusson, Linus; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jurgen; Pappenberger, Florian

2015-04-01

Near-real time drought monitoring can provide decision makers valuable information for use in several areas, such as water resources management, or international aid. Unfortunately, a major constraint in current drought outlooks is the lack of reliable monitoring capability for observed precipitation globally in near-real time. Furthermore, drought monitoring systems requires a long record of past observations to provide mean climatological conditions. We address these constraints by developing a novel drought monitoring approach in which monthly mean precipitation is derived from short-range using ECMWF probabilistic forecasts and then merged with the long term precipitation climatology of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) dataset. Merging the two makes available a real-time global precipitation product out of which the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) can be estimated and used for global or regional drought monitoring work. This approach provides stability in that by-passes problems of latency (lags) in having local rain-gauge measurements available in real time or lags in satellite precipitation products. Seasonal drought forecasts can also be prepared using the common methodology and based upon two data sources used to provide initial conditions (GPCC and the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI) combined with either the current ECMWF seasonal forecast or a climatology based upon ensemble forecasts. Verification of the forecasts as a function of lead time revealed a reduced impact on skill for: (i) long lead times using different initial conditions, and (ii) short lead times using different precipitation forecasts. The memory effect of initial conditions was found to be 1 month lead time for the SPI-3, 3 to 4 months for the SPI-6 and 5 months for the SPI-12. Results show that dynamical forecasts of precipitation provide added value, a skill similar to or better than climatological forecasts. In some cases, particularly for long SPI time scales, it is very difficult to improve on the use of climatological forecasts. However, results presented regionally and globally pinpoint several regions in the world where drought onset forecasting is feasible and skilful.

The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris; Peterson, Pete; Landsfeld, Martin; Pedreros, Diego; Verdin, James; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Husak, Gregory; Rowland, James; Harrison, Laura; Hoell, Andrew; Michaelsen, Joel

2015-01-01

The Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset builds on previous approaches to ‘smart’ interpolation techniques and high resolution, long period of record precipitation estimates based on infrared Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) observations. The algorithm i) is built around a 0.05° climatology that incorporates satellite information to represent sparsely gauged locations, ii) incorporates daily, pentadal, and monthly 1981-present 0.05° CCD-based precipitation estimates, iii) blends station data to produce a preliminary information product with a latency of about 2 days and a final product with an average latency of about 3 weeks, and iv) uses a novel blending procedure incorporating the spatial correlation structure of CCD-estimates to assign interpolation weights. We present the CHIRPS algorithm, global and regional validation results, and show how CHIRPS can be used to quantify the hydrologic impacts of decreasing precipitation and rising air temperatures in the Greater Horn of Africa. Using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, we show that CHIRPS can support effective hydrologic forecasts and trend analyses in southeastern Ethiopia.

The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes

PubMed Central

Funk, Chris; Peterson, Pete; Landsfeld, Martin; Pedreros, Diego; Verdin, James; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Husak, Gregory; Rowland, James; Harrison, Laura; Hoell, Andrew; Michaelsen, Joel

2015-01-01

The Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset builds on previous approaches to ‘smart’ interpolation techniques and high resolution, long period of record precipitation estimates based on infrared Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) observations. The algorithm i) is built around a 0.05° climatology that incorporates satellite information to represent sparsely gauged locations, ii) incorporates daily, pentadal, and monthly 1981-present 0.05° CCD-based precipitation estimates, iii) blends station data to produce a preliminary information product with a latency of about 2 days and a final product with an average latency of about 3 weeks, and iv) uses a novel blending procedure incorporating the spatial correlation structure of CCD-estimates to assign interpolation weights. We present the CHIRPS algorithm, global and regional validation results, and show how CHIRPS can be used to quantify the hydrologic impacts of decreasing precipitation and rising air temperatures in the Greater Horn of Africa. Using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, we show that CHIRPS can support effective hydrologic forecasts and trend analyses in southeastern Ethiopia. PMID:26646728

Associating extreme precipitation events to parent cyclones in gridded data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, Ruari; Shaffrey, Len; Gray, Sue

2015-04-01

When analysing the relationship of regional precipitation to its parent cyclone, it is insufficient to consider the cyclone's region of influence as a fixed radius from the centre due to the irregular shape of rain bands. A new method is therefore presented which allows the use of objective feature tracking data in the analysis of regional precipitation. Utilising the spatial extent of precipitation in gridded datasets, the most appropriate cyclone(s) may be associated with regional precipitation events. This method is applied in the context of an analysis of the influence of clustering and stalling of extra-tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic on total precipitation accumulations over England and Wales. Cyclone counts and residence times are presented for historical records (ERA-Interim) and future projections (HadGEM2-ES) of extreme (> 98th percentile) precipitation accumulations over England and Wales, for accumulation periods ranging from one day to one month.

Trends in monthly precipitation over the northwest of Iran (NWI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asakereh, Hossein

2017-10-01

Increasing global temperatures during the last century have had their own effects on other climatic conditions, particularly on precipitation characteristics. This study was meant to investigate the spatial and temporal monthly trends of precipitation using the least square error (LSE) approach for the northwest of Iran (NWI). To this end, a database was obtained from 250 measuring stations uniformly scattered all over NWI from 1961 to 2010. The spatial average of annual precipitation in NWI during the period of study was approximately 220.9-726.7 mm. The annual precipitation decreased from southwest to northeast, while the large amount of precipitation was concentrated in the south-west and in the mountainous areas. All over NWI, the maximum and minimum precipitation records occurred from March to May and July to September, respectively. The coefficient of variation (CV) is greater than 44 % in all of NWI and may reach over 76 % in many places. The greatest range of CV, for instance, occurred during July. The spatial variability of precipitation was consistent with a tempo-spatial pattern of precipitation trends. There was a considerable difference between the amounts of change during the months, and the negative trends were mainly attributed to areas concentrated in eastern and southern parts of NWI far from the western mountain ranges. Moreover, limited areas with positive precipitation trends can be found in very small and isolated regions. This is observable particularly in the eastern half of NWI, which is mostly located far from Westerlies. On the other hand, seasonal precipitation trends indicated a slight decrease during winter and spring and a slight increase during summer and autumn. Consequently, there were major changes in average precipitation that occurred negatively in the area under study during the observation period. This finding is in agreement with those findings by recent studies which revealed a decreasing trend of around 2 mm/year over NWI during 1966-2005.

Recent variations in seasonality of temperature and precipitation in Canada, 1976-95

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitfield, Paul H.; Bodtker, Karin; Cannon, Alex J.

2002-11-01

A previously reported analysis of rehabilitated monthly temperature and precipitation time series for several hundred stations across Canada showed generally spatially coherent patterns of variation between two decades (1976-85 and 1986-95). The present work expands that analysis to finer time scales and a greater number of stations. We demonstrate how the finer temporal resolution, at 5 day or 11 day intervals, increases the separation between clusters of recent variations in seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation. We also expand the analysis by increasing the number of stations from only rehabilitated monthly data sets to rehabilitated daily sets, then to approximately 1500 daily observation stations. This increases the spatial density of data and allows a finer spatial resolution of patterns between the two decades. We also examine the success of clustering partial records, i.e. sites where the data record is incomplete. The intent of this study was to be consistent with previous work and explore how greater temporal and spatial detail in the climate data affects the resolution of patterns of recent climate variations. The variations we report for temperature and precipitation are taking place at different temporal and spatial scales. Further, the spatial patterns are much broader than local climate regions and ecozones, indicating that the differences observed may be the result of variations in atmospheric circulation.

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

2017-05-03

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

Spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole modes: implications for flooding and drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pervez, M. S.; Henebry, G. M.

2014-02-01

We evaluated the spatial and temporal responses of precipitation in the basins as modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean (IO) dipole modes using observed precipitation records at 43 stations across the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins from 1982 to 2010. Daily observed precipitation records were extracted from Global Surface Summary of the Day dataset and spatial and monthly anomalies were computed. The anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by climate modes combinations. Occurrences of El Niño alone significantly reduced (60% and 88% of baseline in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins, respectively) precipitation during the monsoon months in the northwestern and central Ganges basin and across the Brahmaputra basin. In contrast, co-occurrence of La Niña and a positive IO dipole mode significantly enhanced (135% and 160% of baseline, respectively) precipitation across both basins. During the co-occurrence of neutral phases in both climate modes (occurring 13 out of 28 yr), precipitation remained below average to average in the agriculturally extensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, eastern Nepal, and the Rajshahi district in Bangladesh in the Ganges basin and northern Bangladesh, Meghalaya, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh in the Brahmaputra basin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely in these areas with implications for the agriculture sector due to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production. Major flooding and drought occurred as a consequence of the interactive effects of the ENSO and IO dipole modes, with the sole exception of extreme precipitation and flooding during El Niño events. This observational analysis will facilitate well informed decision making in minimizing natural hazard risks and climate impacts on agriculture, and supports development of strategies ensuring optimized use of water resources in best management practice under changing climate.

Backcasting long-term climate data: evaluation of hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saghafian, Bahram; Aghbalaghi, Sara Ghasemi; Nasseri, Mohsen

2018-05-01

Most often than not, incomplete datasets or short-term recorded data in vast regions impedes reliable climate and water studies. Various methods, such as simple correlation with stations having long-term time series, are practiced to infill or extend the period of observation at stations with missing or short-term data. In the current paper and for the first time, the hypothesis on the feasibility of extending the downscaling concept to backcast local observation records using large-scale atmospheric predictors is examined. Backcasting is coined here to contrast forecasting/projection; the former is implied to reconstruct in the past, while the latter represents projection in the future. To assess our hypotheses, daily and monthly statistical downscaling models were employed to reconstruct past precipitation data and lengthen the data period. Urmia and Tabriz synoptic stations, located in northwestern Iran, constituted two case study stations. SDSM and data-mining downscaling model (DMDM) daily as well as the group method of data handling (GMDH) and model tree (Mp5) monthly downscaling models were trained with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. After training, reconstructed precipitation data of the past was validated against observed data. Then, the data was fully extended to the 1948 to 2009 period corresponding to available NCEP data period. The results showed that DMDM performed superior in generation of monthly average precipitation compared with the SDSM, Mp5, and GMDH models, although none of the models could preserve the monthly variance. This overall confirms practical value of the proposed approach in extension of the past historic data, particularly for long-term climatological and water budget studies.

33 Years of Near-Global Daily Precipitation from Multisatellite Observations and its Application to Drought Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashouri, H.; Hsu, K.; Sorooshian, S.; Braithwaite, D.; Knapp, K. R.; Cecil, L. D.

2013-12-01

PERSIANN Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) is a new retrospective satellite-based precipitation data set that is constructed for long-term hydrological and climate studies. The PERSIANN-CDR is a near-global (60°S-60°N) long-term (1980-2012), multi-satellite, high-resolution precipitation product that provides rain rate estimates at 0.25° and daily spatiotemporal resolution. PERSIANN-CDR is aimed at addressing the need for a consistent, long-term, high resolution precipitation data set for studying the spatial and temporal variations and changes of precipitation patterns, particularly in a scale relevant to climate extremes at the global scale. PERSIANN-CDR is generated from the PERSIANN algorithm using GridSat-B1 infrared data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). PERSIANN-CDR is adjusted using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation to maintain consistency of two data sets at 2.5° monthly scale throughout the entire reconstruction period. PERSIANN-CDR daily precipitation data demonstrates considerable consistency with both GPCP monthly and GPCP 1DD precipitation products. Verification studies over Hurricane Katrina show that PERSIANN-CDR has a good agreement with NCEP Stage IV radar data, noting that PERSIANN-CDR has better spatial coverage. In addition, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of PERSIANN-CDR over the contiguous United States was compared with the PDFs extracted from CPC gauge data and the TMPA precipitation product. The experiment also shows good agreement of the PDF of PERSIANN-CDR with the PDFs of TMPA and CPC gauge data. The application of PERSIANN-CDR in regional and global drought monitoring is investigated. Consisting of more than three decades of high-resolution precipitation data, PERSIANN-CDR makes us capable of long-term assessment of droughts at a higher resolution (0.25°) than previously possible. The results will be presented at the meeting.

Reconstruction of Flooding Events for the Central Valley, California from Instrumental and Documentary Weather Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodds, S. F.; Mock, C. J.

2009-12-01

All available instrumental winter precipitation data for the Central Valley of California back to 1850 were digitized and analyzed to construct continuous time series. Many of these data, in paper or microfilm format, extend prior to modern National Weather Service Cooperative Data Program and Historical Climate Network data, and were recorded by volunteer observers from networks such as the US Army Surgeon General, Smithsonian Institution, and US Army Signal Service. Given incomplete individual records temporally, detailed documentary data from newspapers, personal diaries and journals, ship logbooks, and weather enthusiasts’ instrumental data, were used in conjunction with instrumental data to reconstruct precipitation frequency per month and season, continuous days of precipitation, and to identify anomalous precipitation events. Multilinear regression techniques, using surrounding stations and the relationships between modern and historical records, bridge timeframes lacking data and provided homogeneous nature of time series. The metadata for each station was carefully screened, and notes were made about any possible changes to the instrumentation, location of instruments, or an untrained observer to verify that anomalous events were not recorded incorrectly. Precipitation in the Central Valley varies throughout the entire region, but waterways link the differing elevations and latitudes. This study integrates the individual station data with additional accounts of flood descriptions through unique newspaper and journal data. River heights and flood extent inundating cities, agricultural lands, and individual homes are often recorded within unique documentary sources, which add to the understanding of flood occurrence within this area. Comparisons were also made between dam and levee construction through time and how waters are diverted through cities in natural and anthropogenically changed environments. Some precipitation that lead to flooding events that occur in the Central Valley in the mid-19th century through the early 20th century are more outstanding at some particular stations than the modern records include. Several years that are included in the study are 1850, 1862, 1868, 1878, 1881, 1890, and 1907. These flood years were compared to the modern record and reconstructed through time series and maps. Incorporating the extent and effects these anomalous events in future climate studies could improve models and preparedness for the future floods.

Precipitation projections under GCMs perspective and Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) statistical downscaling model procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabanlı, İsmail; Şen, Zekai

2018-04-01

The statistical climate downscaling model by the Turkish Water Foundation (TWF) is further developed and applied to a set of monthly precipitation records. The model is structured by two phases as spatial (regional) and temporal downscaling of global circulation model (GCM) scenarios. The TWF model takes into consideration the regional dependence function (RDF) for spatial structure and Markov whitening process (MWP) for temporal characteristics of the records to set projections. The impact of climate change on monthly precipitations is studied by downscaling Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A2 and B2 emission scenarios from Max Plank Institute (EH40PYC) and Hadley Center (HadCM3). The main purposes are to explain the TWF statistical climate downscaling model procedures and to expose the validation tests, which are rewarded in same specifications as "very good" for all stations except one (Suhut) station in the Akarcay basin that is in the west central part of Turkey. Eventhough, the validation score is just a bit lower at the Suhut station, the results are "satisfactory." It is, therefore, possible to say that the TWF model has reasonably acceptable skill for highly accurate estimation regarding standard deviation ratio (SDR), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) criteria. Based on the validated model, precipitation predictions are generated from 2011 to 2100 by using 30-year reference observation period (1981-2010). Precipitation arithmetic average and standard deviation have less than 5% error for EH40PYC and HadCM3 SRES (A2 and B2) scenarios.

Return to normal streamflows and water levels: summary of hydrologic conditions in Georgia, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knaak, Andrew E.; Caslow, Kerry; Peck, Michael F.

2015-01-01

Drought conditions, persistent in the area since 2010, continued into the 2013 WY. In February 2013, Georgia was free of extreme (D3) drought conditions, as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor, for the first time since August 2010 due to extended periods of heavy rainfall (U.S. Drought Monitor, 2013). According to the Office of the State Climatologist, the city of Savannah recorded 9.75 inches of rain in February 2013, the highest monthly total in February out of 143 years of record. Macon and Columbus also received record rainfalls in February 2013. Above-normal precipitation continued in June 2013, and the cities of Augusta and Savannah recorded the wettest June on record. In July, precipitation for the entire State of Georgia was 3.53 inches above normal (Dunkley, 2013). Above-normal rainfall from February to September 2013 increased streamflow and raised groundwater levels, and lakes and reservoirs were raised to full-pool elevations.

Improving the Global Precipitation Record: GPCP Version 2.1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David t.; Gu, Guojun

2009-01-01

The GPCP has developed Version 2.1 of its long-term (1979-present) global Satellite-Gauge (SG) data sets to take advantage of the improved GPCC gauge analysis, which is one key input. As well, the OPI estimates used in the pre-SSM/I era have been rescaled to 20 years of the SSM/I-era SG. The monthly, pentad, and daily GPCP products have been entirely reprocessed, continuing to enforce consistency of the submonthly estimates to the monthly. Version 2.1 is close to Version 2, with the global ocean, land, and total values about 0%, 6%, and 2% higher, respectively. The revised long-term global precipitation rate is 2.68 mm/d. The corresponding tropical (25 N-S) increases are 0%, 7%, and 3%. Long-term linear changes in the data tend to be smaller in Version 2.1, but the statistics are sensitive to the threshold for land/ocean separation and use of the pre-SSM/I part of the record.

The transfer of seasonal isotopic variability between precipitation and drip water at eight caves in the monsoon regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Wuhui; Ruan, Jiaoyang; Luo, Weijun; Li, Tingyong; Tian, Lijun; Zeng, Guangneng; Zhang, Dezhong; Bai, Yijun; Li, Jilong; Tao, Tao; Zhang, Pingzhong; Baker, Andy; Tan, Ming

2016-06-01

This study presents new stable isotope data for precipitation (δ18Op) and drip water (δ18Od) from eight cave sites in the monsoon regions of China (MRC), with monthly to bi-monthly sampling intervals from May-2011 to April-2014, to investigate the regional-scale climate forcing on δ18Op and how the isotopic signals are transmitted to various drip sites. The monthly δ18Op values show negative correlation with surface air temperature at all the cave sites except Shihua Cave, which is opposite to that expected from the temperature effect. In addition, although the monthly δ18Op values are negatively correlated with precipitation at all the cave sites, only three sites are significant at the 95% level. These indicate that, due to the various vapor sources, a large portion of variability in δ18Op in the MRC cannot be explained simply by either temperature or precipitation alone. All the thirty-four drip sites are classified into three types based on the δ18Od variability. About 82% of them are static drips with little discernable variation in δ18Od through the whole study period, but the drip rates of these drips are not necessary constant. Their discharge modes are site-specific and the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmites growing from them may record the average of multi-year climatic signals, which are modulated by the seasonality of recharge and potential effects of evaporation, and in some cases infiltration from large rainfall events. About 12% of the thirty-four drip sites are seasonal drips, although the amplitude of δ18Od is narrower than that of δ18Op, the monthly response of δ18Od to coeval precipitation is not completely damped, and some of them follow the seasonal trend of δ18Op very well. These drips may be mainly recharged by present-day precipitation, mixing with some stored water. Thus, the stalagmites growing under them may record portions of the seasonal climatic signals embedded in δ18Op. About 6% of the thirty-four drip sites are medium-variability drips, with constant and relatively low δ18Od values in the wet season, but with variable and relatively high δ18Od values in the dry season, reflecting flow switching in the karst or evaporation inside the cave.

Homogenization of long instrumental temperature and precipitation series over the Spanish Northern Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigro, J.; Brunet, M.; Aguilar, E.; Stoll, H.; Jimenez, M.

2009-04-01

The Spanish-funded research project Rapid Climate Changes in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) Based on Proxy Calibration, Long Term Instrumental Series and High Resolution Analyses of Terrestrial and Marine Records (CALIBRE: ref. CGL2006-13327-C04/CLI) has as main objective to analyse climate dynamics during periods of rapid climate change by means of developing high-resolution paleoclimate proxy records from marine and terrestrial (lakes and caves) deposits over the IP and calibrating them with long-term and high-quality instrumental climate time series. Under CALIBRE, the coordinated project Developing and Enhancing a Climate Instrumental Dataset for Calibrating Climate Proxy Data and Analysing Low-Frequency Climate Variability over the Iberian Peninsula (CLICAL: CGL2006-13327-C04-03/CLI) is devoted to the development of homogenised climate records and sub-regional time series which can be confidently used in the calibration of the lacustrine, marine and speleothem time series generated under CALIBRE. Here we present the procedures followed in order to homogenise a dataset of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data on a monthly basis over the Spanish northern coast. The dataset is composed of thirty (twenty) precipitation (temperature) long monthly records. The data are quality controlled following the procedures recommended by Aguilar et al. (2003) and tested for homogeneity and adjusted by following the approach adopted by Brunet et al. (2008). Sub-regional time series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1853-2007 have been generated by averaging monthly anomalies and then adding back the base-period mean, according to the method of Jones and Hulme (1996). Also, a method to adjust the variance bias present in regional time series associated over time with varying sample size has been applied (Osborn et al., 1997). The results of this homogenisation exercise and the development of the associated sub-regional time series will be widely discussed. Initial comparisons with rapidly growing speleothems in two different caves indicate that speleothem trace element ratios like Ba/Ca are recording the decrease in littoral precipitation in the last several decades. References Aguilar, E., Auer, I., Brunet, M., Peterson, T. C. and Weringa, J. 2003. Guidelines on Climate Metadata and Homogenization, World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-TD no. 1186 / World Climate Data and Monitoring Program (WCDMP) no. 53, Geneva: 51 pp. Brunet M, Saladié O, Jones P, Sigró J, Aguilar E, Moberg A, Lister D, Walther A, Almarza C. 2008. A case-study/guidance on the development of long-term daily adjusted temperature datasets, WMO-TD-1425/WCDMP-66, Geneva: 43 pp. Jones, P D, and Hulme M, 1996, Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation: Methods and illustrations, Int. J. Climatol., 16, 361- 377. Osborn, T. J., Briffa K. R., and Jones P. D., 1997, Adjusting variance for sample-size in tree-ring chronologies and other regional mean time series, Dendrochronologia, 15, 89- 99.

Areal and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation Patterns In Slovakia Using Spectral Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pishvaei, M. R.

Harmonic analysis as an objective method of precipitation seasonality studying is ap- plied to the 1901-2000 monthly precipitation averages at five stations in the low-land part of Slovakia with elevation less than 800 m a.s.l. The significant harmonics of long-term precipitation series have been separately computed for eight 30-year peri- ods, which cover the 20th century and some properties and the variations are com- pared to 100-year monthly precipitation averages. The selected results show that the first and the second harmonics pre-dominantly influence on the annual distribution and climatic seasonal regimes of pre-cipitation that contribute to the precipitation am- plitude/pattern with about 20% and 10%, respectively. These indicate annual and half year variations. The rest harmon-ics often have each less than 5% contribution on the Fourier interpolation course. Maximum in yearly precipitation course, which oc- curs approximately at the begin-ning of July, because of phase changing shifts then to the middle of June. Some probable reasons regarding to Fourier components are discussed. In addition, a tem-poral analysis over precipitation time series belonging to the Hurbanovo Observa-tory as the longest observational series on the territory of Slovakia (with 130-year precipitation records) has been individually performed and possible meteorological factors responsible for the observed patterns are suggested. A comparison of annual precipitation course obtained from daily precipitation totals analysis and polynomial trends with Fourier interpolation has been done too. Daily precipitation data in the latest period are compared for some stations in Slovakia as well. Only selected results are pre-sented in the poster.

Synthesis of natural flows at selected sites in the upper Missouri River basin, Montana, 1928-89

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cary, L.E.; Parrett, Charles

1996-01-01

Natural monthly streamflows were synthesized for the years 1928-89 for 43 sites in the upper Missouri River Basin upstream from Fort Peck Lake in Montana. The sites are represented as nodes in a streamflow accounting model being developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. Recorded and historical flows at most sites have been affected by human activities including reservoir storage, diversions for irrigation, and municipal use. Natural flows at the sites were synthesized by eliminating the effects of these activities. Recorded data at some sites do not include the entire study period. The missing flows at these sites were estimated using a statistical procedure. The methods of synthesis varied, depending on upstream activities and information available. Recorded flows were transferred to nodes that did not have streamflow-gaging stations from the nearest station with a sufficient length of record. The flows at one node were computed as the sum of flows from three upstream tributaries. Monthly changes in reservoir storage were computed from monthend contents. The changes in storage were corrected for the effects of evaporation and precipitation using pan-evaporation and precipitation data from climate stations. Irrigation depletions and consumptive use by the three largest municipalities were computed. Synthesized natural flow at most nodes was computed by adding algebraically the upstream depletions and changes in reservoir storage to recorded or historical flow at the nodes.

Long-Term Daily and Monthly Climate Records from Stations Across the Contiguous United States (U.S.Historical Climatology Network) (NDP-019)

DOE Data Explorer

Menne, M. J. [National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Williams, Jr., C. N. [National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Vose, R. S. [National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

2016-01-01

The United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) is a high-quality data set of daily and monthly records of basic meteorological variables from 1218 observing stations across the 48 contiguous United States. Daily data include observations of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation amount, snowfall amount, and snow depth; monthly data consist of monthly-averaged maximum, minimum, and mean temperature and total monthly precipitation. Most of these stations are U.S. Cooperative Observing Network stations located generally in rural locations, while some are National Weather Service First-Order stations that are often located in more urbanized environments. The USHCN has been developed over the years at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to assist in the detection of regional climate change. Furthermore, it has been widely used in analyzing U.S. climte. The period of record varies for each station. USHCN stations were chosen using a number of criteria including length of record, percent of missing data, number of station moves and other station changes that may affect data homogeneity, and resulting network spatial coverage. Collaboration between NCDC and CDIAC on the USHCN project dates to the 1980s (Quinlan et al. 1987). At that time, in response to the need for an accurate, unbiased, modern historical climate record for the United States, the Global Change Research Program of the U.S. Department of Energy and NCDC chose a network of 1219 stations in the contiguous United States that would become a key baseline data set for monitoring U.S. climate. This initial USHCN data set contained monthly data and was made available free of charge from CDIAC. Since then it has been comprehensively updated several times [e.g., Karl et al. (1990) and Easterling et al. (1996)]. The initial USHCN daily data set was made available through CDIAC via Hughes et al. (1992) and contained a 138-station subset of the USHCN. This product was updated by Easterling et al. (1999) and expanded to include 1062 stations. In 2009 the daily USHCN dataset was expanded to include all 1218 stations in the USHCN.

Using weather data to determine dry and wet periods relative to ethnographic records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felzer, B. S.; Jiang, M.; Cheng, R.; Ember, C. R.

2017-12-01

Ethnographers record flood or drought events that affect a society's food supply and can be interpreted in terms of a society's ability to adapt to extreme events. Using daily weather station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network for wet events, and monthly gridded climatic data from the Climatic Research Unit for drought events, we determine if it is possible to relate these measured data to the ethnographic records. We explore several drought and wetness indices based on temperature and precipitation, as well as the Colwell method to determine the predictability, seasonality, and variability of these extreme indices. Initial results indicate that while it is possible to capture the events recorded in the ethnographic records, there are many more "false" captures of events that are not recorded in these records. Although extreme precipitation is a poor indicator of floods due to antecedent moisture conditions, even using streamflow for selected sites produces false captures. Relating drought indices to actual food supply as measured in crop yield only related to minimum crop yield in half the cases. Further mismatches between extreme precipitation and drought indices and ethnographic records may relate to the fact that only extreme events that affect food supply are recorded in the ethnographic records or that not all events are recorded by the ethnographers. We will present new results on how predictability measures relate to the ethnographic disasters. Despite the highlighted technical challenges, our results provide a historic perspective linking environmental stressors with socio-economic impacts, which in turn, will underpin the current efforts of risk assessment in a changing environment.

Variability and Extremes of Precipitation in the Global Climate as Determined by the 25-Year GEWEX/GPCP Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R. F.; Gu, G.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G. J.; Bolvin, D. T.; Nelkin, E. J.

2005-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year precipitation data set is used to evaluate the variability and extremes on global and regional scales. The variability of precipitation year-to-year is evaluated in relation to the overall lack of a significant global trend and to climate events such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The validity of conclusions and limitations of the data set are checked by comparison with independent data sets (e.g., TRMM). The GPCP data set necessarily has a heterogeneous time series of input data sources, so part of the assessment described above is to test the initial results for potential influence by major data boundaries in the record. Regional trends, or inter-decadal changes, are also analyzed to determine validity and correlation with other long-term data sets related to the hydrological cycle (e.g., clouds and ocean surface fluxes). Statistics of extremes (both wet and dry) are analyzed at the monthly time scale for the 25 years. A preliminary result of increasing frequency of extreme monthly values will be a focus to determine validity. Daily values for an eight-year are also examined for variation in extremes and compared to the longer monthly-based study.

Climate data by elevation in the Great Smoky Mountains: a database and graphical displays for 1947 - 1950 with comparison to long-term data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, Richard T.; Stephens, Luther A.; Clebsch, Edward E.C.

2004-01-01

A climate data set is presented for four sites spanning the elevation gradient in the Great Smoky Mountains from Gatlinburg to Clingmans Dome. Monthly mean values for cloud cover, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and soil moisture are included. Stephens (1969) is the source of all summarized mean monthly data. Values are the averages of four years (1947-1950) with moderate to high precipitation. Graphical displays show strong climatic patterns of variation among seasons and elevations. The upper stations had lower temperatures and higher precipitation totals; however, temperature lapse rates and variation in vapor pressure deficits decreased at upper elevations. To examine how well the four-year sample represents the long-term climate, temperature and precipitation for the Gatlinburg (1460 ft elevation at park headquarters) station were compared between the years in the sample and the years in the full record from 1928 to 2003. Trends related to season and elevation are consistent with earlier studies and provide a basis for interpretation of climate dynamics in the southern Appalachian Mountains.

Oxygen-18 concentrations in recent precipitation and ice cores on the Tibetan Plateau

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tian, L.; Yao, T.; Schuster, P.F.; White, J.W.C.; Ichiyanagi, K.; Pendall, Elise; Pu, J.; Yu, W.

2003-01-01

A detailed study of the climatic significance of ??18O in precipitation was completed on a 1500 km southwest-northeast transect of the Tibetan Plateau in central Asia. Precipitation samples were collected at four meteorological stations for up to 9 years. This study shows that the gradual impact of monsoon precipitation affects the spatial variation of ??18O-T relationship along the transect. Strong monsoon activity in the southern Tibetan Plateau results in high precipitation rates and more depleted heavy isotopes. This depletion mechanism is described as a precipitation "amount effect" and results in a poor ??18O-T relationship at both seasonal and annual scales. In the middle of the Tibetan Plateau, the effects of the monsoon are diminished but continue to cause a reduced correlation of ??18O and temperature at the annual scale. At the monthly scale, however, a significant ??18O-T relationship does exist. To the north of the Tibetan Plateau beyond the extent of the effects of monsoon precipitation, ??18O in precipitation shows a strong temperature dependence. ??18O records from two shallow ice cores and historic air temperature data were compared to verify the modern ??18O-T relationship. ??18O in Dunde ice core was positively correlated with air temperature from a nearby meteorological station in the north of the plateau. The ??18O variation in an ice core from the southern Plateau, however, was inversely correlated with precipitation amount at a nearby meteorological station and also the accumulation record in the ice core. The long-term variation of ??18O in the ice core record in the monsoon regions of the southern Tibetan Plateau suggest past monsoon seasons were probably more expansive. It is still unclear, however, how changes in large-scale atmosphere circulation might influence summer monsoon precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau.

Influences of large-scale convection and moisture source on monthly precipitation isotope ratios observed in Thailand, Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongwang; Lee, Xuhui; Liu, Zhongfang; Seeboonruang, Uma; Koike, Masahiro; Yoshimura, Kei

2018-04-01

Many paleoclimatic records in Southeast Asia rely on rainfall isotope ratios as proxies for past hydroclimatic variability. However, the physical processes controlling modern rainfall isotopic behaviors in the region is poorly constrained. Here, we combined isotopic measurements at six sites across Thailand with an isotope-incorporated atmospheric circulation model (IsoGSM) and the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to investigate the factors that govern the variability of precipitation isotope ratios in this region. Results show that rainfall isotope ratios are both correlated with local rainfall amount and regional outgoing longwave radiation, suggesting that rainfall isotope ratios in this region are controlled not only by local rain amount (amount effect) but also by large-scale convection. As a transition zone between the Indian monsoon and the western North Pacific monsoon, the spatial difference of observed precipitation isotope among different sites are associated with moisture source. These results highlight the importance of regional processes in determining rainfall isotope ratios in the tropics and provide constraints on the interpretation of paleo-precipitation isotope records in the context of regional climate dynamics.

Comparison of SPI and SPEI applicability for drought impact assessment on crop production in the Danubian Lowland and the East Slovakian Lowland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labudová, L.; Labuda, M.; Takáč, J.

2017-04-01

Drought belongs among the main impact factors considering crop yields. Therefore, this paper is focused on the assessment of drought occurrence and intensity as well as on its impact on crop yields on the Danubian and the East Slovakian lowlands with the spatial resolution at district level. Yield data were the main limitation of the study, which resulted in the limited length of the assessed period (1996-2013). The standardized yields of ten crops (winter wheat, spring wheat, winter barley, spring barley, rye, maize, potatoes, oilseed rape, sunflower, and sugar beet) were correlated with monthly, 2-, and 3-monthly standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). For this purpose, the common significance level of alpha = 0.05 was used. The temporal evolution of both indices and drought occurrence during the period 1961-2013 were assessed for each district. Most crops show a higher correlation with the SPEI than with the SPI in contrast to potatoes, which reached a higher significant correlation using the SPI. The correlation also increases with increasing number of months within a time step. The highest correlation can be seen between maize and the 3-monthly SPEI in August representing summer precipitation and potential evapotranspiration conditions. Furthermore, a very high correlation was recorded considering sugar beet, which is influenced mainly by summer precipitation, because the correlation coefficient between the sugar beet and the 3-monthly SPI is as high as using the 3-monthly SPEI. Crop yields in the East Slovakian Lowland do not seem to be influenced by wet/dry periods identified using the SPI and the SPEI as their correlation with both indices is quite low and insignificant.

Microclimate and actual evapotranspiration in a humid coastal-plain environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennehy, K.F.; McMahon, P.B.

1987-01-01

Continuous hourly measurements of twelve meteorologic variables recorded during 1983 and 1984 were used to examine the microclimate and actual evapotranspiration at a low-level radioactive-waste burial site near Barnwell, South Carolina. The study area is in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of southwestern South Carolina. Monthly, daily, and hourly trends in net radiation, incoming and reflected short-wave radiation, incoming and emitted long-wave radiation, soil-heat flux, dry- and wet-bulb temperatures, soil temperatures, wind direction and speed, and precipitation were used to characterize the microclimate. Average daily air temperatures ranged from -9 to 32?? Celsius during the period of study. Net radiation varied from about -27 to 251 watts m-2 and was dominated by incoming short-wave radiation throughout the year. The peak net radiation during a summer day generally occurred 2-3h before the peak vapor pressure deficit. In the winter, these peaks occurred at about the same time of day. Monthly precipitation varied from 15 to 241 mm. The Bowen ratio method was used to estimate hourly evapotranspiration, which was summed to also give daily and monthly evapotranspiration. Actual evapotranspiration varied from 0.0 to 0.7 mm h-1, 0.8-5 mm d-1, and 20-140 mm month-1 during 1983 and 1984. The maximum rate of evapotranspiration generally occurred at the same time of day as maximum net radiation, suggesting net radiation was the main driving force for evapotranspiration. Precipitation exceeded evapotranspiration during 14 months of the 2yr study period. Late fall, winter, and early spring contained the majority of these months. The maximum excess precipitation was 115 mm in February 1983. ?? 1987.

The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) with Stations (CHIRPS): Development and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, P.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Pedreros, D. H.; Landsfeld, M.; Verdin, J. P.; Shukla, S.

2013-12-01

CHIRP and CHIRPS are new quasi-global precipitation products with daily to seasonal time scales, a 0.05° resolution, and a 1981 to near real-time period of record. Developed by the Climate Hazards Group at UCSB and scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center specifically for drought early warning and environmental monitoring, CHIRPS provides moderate latency precipitation estimates that place observed hydrologic extremes in their historic context. Three main types of information are used in the CHIRPS: (1) global 0.05° precipitation climatologies, (2) time-varying grids of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and (3) in situ precipitation observations. CHIRP: The global grids of long-term (1980-2009) average precipitation were estimated for each month based on station data, averaged satellite observations, and physiographic parameters. 1981-present time-varying grids of satellite precipitation were derived from spatially varying regression models based on pentadal cold cloud duration (CCD) values and TRMM V7 training data. The CCD time-series were derived from the CPC and NOAA B1 datasets. Pentadal CCD-percent anomaly values were multiplied by pentadal climatology fields to produce low bias pentadal precipitation estimates. CHIRPS: The CHG station blending procedure uses the satellite-observed spatial covariance structure to assign relative weights to neighboring stations and the CHIRP values. The CHIRPS blending procedure is based on the expected correlation between precipitation at a given target location and precipitation at the locations of the neighboring observation stations. These correlations are estimated using the CHIRP fields. The CHG has developed an extensive archive of in situ daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation totals. The CHG database has over half a billion daily rainfall observations since 1980 and another half billion before 1980. Most of these observations come from four sets of global climate observations: the monthly Global Historical Climate Network version 2 archive, the daily Global Historical Climate Network archive, the Global Summary of the Day dataset (GSOD), and the daily Global Telecommunication System (GTS) archive provided by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). A screening procedure was developed to flag and remove potential false zeros from the daily data, since these potentially spurious data can artificially suppress rainfall totals. Validation: Our validation focused on precipitation products with global coverage, long periods of record and near real-time availability: CHIRP, CHIRPS, CPC-Unified, CFS Reanalysis and ECMWF datasets were compared to GPCC and high quality datasets from Uganda, Colombia and the Sahel. The CHIRP and CHIRPS are shown to have low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Analyses in Uganda, Colombia and the Sahel indicate that the ECMWF, CPC-Unified and CFS-Reanalysis have large inhomogeneities, making them unsuitable for drought monitoring. The CHIRPS performance appears quite similar to research quality products like the GPCC and GPCP, but with higher resolution and lower latency.

Trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River, southeastern Arizona, and regional trends in precipitation and streamflow in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Blakemore E.; Pool, Don R.

2006-01-01

This study was done to improve the understanding of trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Annual streamflow of the river at Charleston, Arizona, has decreased by more than 50 percent during the 20th century. The San Pedro River is one of the few remaining free-flowing perennial streams in the arid Southwestern United States, and the riparian forest along the river supports several endangered species and is an important habitat for migratory birds. Trends in seasonal and annual precipitation and streamflow were evaluated for surrounding areas in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico to provide a regional perspective for the trends of the San Pedro River. Seasonal and annual streamflow trends and the relation between precipitation and streamflow in the San Pedro River Basin were evaluated to improve the understanding of the causes of trends. There were few significant trends in seasonal and annual precipitation or streamflow for the regional study area. Precipitation and streamflow records were analyzed for 11 time periods ranging from 1930 to 2002; no significant trends were found in 92 percent of the trend tests for precipitation, and no significant trends were found in 79 percent of the trend tests for streamflow. For the trends in precipitation that were significant, 90 percent were positive and most of those positive trends were in records of winter, spring, or annual precipitation that started during the mid-century drought in 1945-60. For the trends in streamflow that were significant, about half were positive and half were negative. Trends in precipitation in the San Pedro River Basin were similar to regional precipitation trends for spring and fall values and were different for summer and annual values. The largest difference was in annual precipitation, for which no trend tests were significant in the San Pedro River Basin, and 23 percent of the trend tests were significantly positive in the rest of the study area. Streamflow trends for the San Pedro River were different from regional streamflow trends. All seasonal flows for the San Pedro River, except winter flows, had significant decreasing trends, and seasonal flows for most streams in the rest of the study area had either no trend or a significant increasing trend. Two streams adjacent to the San Pedro River Basin (Whitewater Draw and Santa Cruz River), however, had significant decreasing trends in summer streamflow. Factors that caused the decreasing trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River at Charleston were investigated. Possible factors were fluctuations in precipitation and air temperature, changes in watershed characteristics, human activities, or changes in seasonal distribution of bank storage. This study statistically removed or accounted for the variation in streamflow caused by fluctuations in precipitation. Thus, the remaining variation or trend in streamflow was caused by factors other than precipitation. Two methods were used to partition the variation in streamflow and to determine trends in the partitioned variation: (1) regression analysis between precipitation and streamflow using all years in the record and evaluation of time trends in regression residuals, and (2) development of regression equations between precipitation and streamflow for three time periods (early, middle, and late parts of the record) and testing to determine if the three regression equations were significantly different. The methods were applied to monthly values of total flow (average flow) and storm runoff (maximum daily mean flow) for 1913-2002, and to monthly values of low flow (3-day low flow) for 1931-2002. Statistical tests provide strong evidence that factors other than precipitation caused a decrease in streamflow of the San Pedro River. Factors other than precipitation caused significant decreasing trends in streamflows for late spring through early winter and did not cause significant trends f

Summer precipitation influences the stable oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of tree-ring cellulose in Pinus ponderosa.

PubMed

Roden, John S; Ehleringer, James R

2007-04-01

The carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of tree-ring cellulose was examined in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) trees in the western USA to study seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs. Two sites (California and Oregon) had minimal summer rainfall inputs, whereas a third site (Arizona) received as much as 70% of its annual precipitation during the summer months (North American monsoon). For the Arizona site, both the delta(18)O and delta(13)C values of latewood cellulose increased as the fraction of annual precipitation occurring in the summer (July through September) increased. There were no trends in latewood cellulose delta(18)O with the absolute amount of summer rain at any site. The delta(13)C composition of latewood cellulose declined with increasing total water year precipitation for all sites. Years with below-average total precipitation tended to have a higher proportion of their annual water inputs during the summer months. Relative humidity was negatively correlated with latewood cellulose delta(13)C at all sites. Trees at the Arizona site produced latewood cellulose that was significantly more enriched in (18)O compared with trees at the Oregon or California site, implying a greater reliance on an (18)O-enriched water source. Thus, tree-ring records of cellulose delta(18)O and delta(13)C may provide useful proxy information about seasonal precipitation inputs and the variability and intensity of the North American monsoon.

Mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff in Arkansas, 1951-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugh, Aaron L.; Westerman, Drew A.

2014-01-01

This report describes long-term annual, seasonal, and monthly means for precipitation and runoff in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011. Precipitation means were estimated using data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model database; while total runoff, groundwater runoff, and surface runoff means were estimated using data from 123 active and inactive U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations located in Arkansas and surrounding States. Annual precipitation in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011 had a mean of 49.8 inches. Of the six physiographic sections in Arkansas, the Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual precipitation at 53.0 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual precipitation at 45.5 inches. The mean annual total runoff for Arkansas was 17.8 inches. The Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual total runoff at 20.4 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual total runoff at 15.0 inches. Runoff is diminished during the dry season, which is attributed to increased losses from evapotranspiration, consumptive uses including irrigation, and increased withdrawals for public and private water supplies. The decline in runoff during the dry season is observed across the State in all physiographic sections. Spatial results for precipitation and runoff are presented in a series of maps that are available for download from the publication Web page in georeferenced raster formats.

Capacity Building with CHIRPS Amidst a Station-Recording Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, P.

2016-12-01

Station data are essential for improving the accuracy of satellite-derived rainfall products. However we face a severe reporting crisis as the number of available stations observations has declined precipitously. For example there were 2400 monthly stations available in Africa (excluding South Africa) in the 1980's, while at present there are about 500 stations (Figure 1). In this talk we describe how partnerships with regional and national collaborators can improve our collective ability to monitor food production and inform decision making. A high quality, long-term, high-resolution precipitation dataset is key for supporting agricultural drought monitoring, food security and early warning. Here we present the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, developed by scientists at the University of California, Santa Barbara and the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center under the direction of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). This quasi-global precipitation product is available at daily to seasonal time scales with a spatial resolution of 0.05° and a 1981 to near real-time period of record. The Climate Hazards Group (CHG) has developed an extensive database of in situ daily, pentadal, and monthly precipitation totals with over a billion daily observations worldwide. Under support from the USAID FEWS NET, CHG/USGS has developed a two way strategy for incorporating contributed station data while providing web-based visualization tools to partners in developing nations. For example, we are currently working with partners in Mexico (Conagua), Southern Africa (SASSCAL), Colombia (IDEAM), Somalia (SWALIM) and Ethiopia (NMA). These institutions provide in situ observations which enhance the CHIRPS. The CHIRPS is then placed in a web accessible geospatial database. Partners in these countries can then access and display this information using web based mapping tools. This provides a win-win collaboration, leading to improved globally accessible precipitation estimates and improved climate services in developing nations.

Classification and plausibility assessment of historical and future weather and climate anomalies (application for the Wupper River Basin, Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibel, Marc; Lorza, Paula

2017-04-01

In the frame of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), the effects of climate change scenarios on the water cycle in the Wupper River Basin are being currently investigated. The Wupper catchment area is prone to flash floods in summer, winter floods as well as dry periods. The occurrence of these events has increased in the last decades together with the shifting of the rainy season. BINGO approach focuses on, among others: a) identifying past weather extremes and anomalies due to climate change; and b) gaining deeper knowledge on the effects of soil moisture on water balance and runoff generation processes for reservoir management and enhancement of Wupper Association's flood early warning system. Historical hydro-meteorological extreme events are assessed based on daily records of long-term precipitation time series (ca. 80 years) as well as precipitation time series from downscaled reanalysis products (i.e., ERA-Interim). The determination of representative indices, e.g., Weather Extremity Index (WEI) or the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) serves to compensate for uncertainties in spatial and temporal recording of the parameters of individual processes. The WEI establishes the highest rainfall amount per station and its rarity, the extent of the affected area, and the event duration. For the evaluation of historical climate signals in the reference period and for the assessment of future scenarios, deviation of the mean monthly observed precipitation from the long-term mean value is determined as a first approach for several stations along the catchment area for individual months and different time scales. As a second approach, different indices such as SPI and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are calculated for different time scales in order to determine whether they were anomalously dry or wet. SPEI is more suitable for climate change analysis than SPI since the former considers not only precipitation but also temperature.

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

2016-01-01

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Identification of relationships between climate indices and long-term precipitation in South Korea using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Taereem; Shin, Ju-Young; Kim, Sunghun; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2018-02-01

Climate indices characterize climate systems and may identify important indicators for long-term precipitation, which are driven by climate interactions in atmosphere-ocean circulation. In this study, we investigated the climate indices that are effective indicators of long-term precipitation in South Korea, and examined their relationships based on statistical methods. Monthly total precipitation was collected from a total of 60 meteorological stations, and they were decomposed by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to identify the inherent oscillating patterns or cycles. Cross-correlation analysis and stepwise variable selection were employed to select the significant climate indices at each station. The climate indices that affect the monthly precipitation in South Korea were identified based on the selection frequencies of the selected indices at all stations. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten-month lags and AMO index with no lag were identified as indicators of monthly precipitation in South Korea. Moreover, they indicate meaningful physical information (e.g. periodic oscillations and long-term trend) inherent in the monthly precipitation. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten- month lags was a strong indicator representing periodic oscillations in monthly precipitation. In addition, the long-term trend of the monthly precipitation could be explained by the AMO index. A multiple linear regression model was constructed to investigate the influences of the identified climate indices on the prediction of monthly precipitation. Three identified climate indices successfully explained the monthly precipitation in the winter dry season. Compared to the monthly precipitation in coastal areas, the monthly precipitation in inland areas showed stronger correlation to the identified climate indices.

Mild cool air--a risk factor for asthma exacerbations: results of a retrospective study.

PubMed

Saxena, Tarun; Maheshwari, Sanjiv; Saxen, Manjari

2011-10-01

Worldwide incidence of bronchial asthma is on rise. Infections either viral or bacterial and various environmental factors are considered as major risk factors for exacerbations in various studies. Despite of awareness and preventive strategies to risk factors, exacerbations largely remain uncontrolled, therefore the study was planned to review the existing risk factors and to find out some other risk factor/factors which could help us in understanding the other causes of exacerbations. The study was done in Ajmer, the central part of Rajasthan state, India, at Mittal Hospital & Research Centre and J. L. N. Medical college hospital by collecting data for the period of four years (January 2006 - December 2009). Monthly record of 300 regular cases of bronchial asthma was taken. This record included symptoms, history of exposure to various risk factors, and PEFR. Environmental data was also collected. On the basis of record monthly attack rate was calculated. RESULTS/OBSERVATIONS: Maximum attack rate (> 90%) was found in October, November (early winter) and February and March (spring) during all the four years studied except in October 2009. A common precipitant present during these months was mild cool air (environmental temperature of 23-27 degrees c). Attack rate was very less above and below of this temperature. No clear association was present with any other known precipitants. It is concluded that inhalation of mild coolair (23-27 degrees c) may be an important risk factor besides other risk factors for asthma exacerbation.

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP): Results, Status and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.

2007-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is one of a number of long-term, satellite-based, global analyses routinely produced under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and its Global Energy and Watercycle EXperiment (GEWEX) program. The research quality analyses are produced a few months after real-time through the efforts of scientists at various national agencies and universities in the U.S., Europe and Japan. The primary product is a monthly analysis of surface precipitation that is globally complete and spans the period 1979-present. There are also pentad analyses for the same period and a daily analysis for the 1997-present period. Although generated with somewhat different data sets and analysis schemes, the pentad and daily data sets are forced to agree with the primary monthly analysis on a grid box by grid box basis. The primary input data sets are from low-orbit passive microwave observations, geostationary infrared observations and surface raingauge information. Examples of research with the data sets are discussed, focusing on tropical (25N-25s) rainfall variations and possible long-term changes in the 28-year (1979-2006) monthly dataset. Techniques are used to discriminate among the variations due to ENSO, volcanic events and possible long-term changes for rainfall over both land and ocean. The impact of the two major volcanic eruptions over the past 25 years is estimated to be about a 5% maximum reduction in tropical rainfall during each event. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, a small upward linear change over tropical ocean (0.06 mm/day/l0yr) and a slight downward linear change over tropical land (-0.03 mm/day/l0yr) are examined to understand the impact of the inhomogeneity in the data record and the length of the data set. These positive changes correspond to about a 5% increase (ocean) and 3% increase (ocean plus land) during this time period. Relations between variations in surface temperature and precipitation are analyzed on seasonal to inter-decadal time scales. A new, version 3 of GPCP is being planned to incorporate new satellite information (e.g., TRMM) and provide higher spatial and temporal resolution for at least part of the data record. The goals and plans for that GPCP re-processing will be outlined.

Reconstructing seasonal climate from high-resolution carbon and oxygen isotope measurements across tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, B.; Jahren, H.

2014-12-01

Intra-annual records of carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope measurements across tree rings reveal significant changes in δ13C and δ18O value across each growing season. We previously found that across a broad range of climate regimes, the seasonal change in δ13C measured within tree rings reflects changes in seasonal precipitation amount, and demonstrated its utility for quantifying seasonal paleo-precipitation from non-permineralized, fossil wood. Here we produce an equation relating intra-ring changes in δ18O to seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation amount, but the equation yields for unknowns (summer and winter precipitation amounts, and cold and warm month mean temperatures). By combining high-resolution δ13C and δ18O records with independent estimates of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, we show how our general, global relationships could be used to quantify seasonal climate information from fossil sites. We validate our approach using high-resolution δ13C and δ18O data from trees growing at five modern sites (Hawaii, Alaska, Norway, Guyana, and Kenya). The reconstructed estimates of seasonal precipitation and temperature showed excellent agreement with the known climate data for each site (precipitation: R2 = 0.98; temperature: R2 = 0.91). These results confirm that across diverse sites and tree species, seasonal climate information can be accurately quantified using a combination of carbon and oxygen intra-ring isotope profiles.

Precipitation from Space: Advancing Earth System Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kucera, Paul A.; Ebert, Elizabeth E.; Turk, F. Joseph; Levizzani, Vicenzo; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Tapiador, Francisco J.; Loew, Alexander; Borsche, M.

2012-01-01

Of the three primary sources of spatially contiguous precipitation observations (surface networks, ground-based radar, and satellite-based radar/radiometers), only the last is a viable source over ocean and much of the Earth's land. As recently as 15 years ago, users needing quantitative detail of precipitation on anything under a monthly time scale relied upon products derived from geostationary satellite thermal infrared (IR) indices. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) passive microwave (PMW) imagers originated in 1987 and continue today with the SSMI sounder (SSMIS) sensor. The fortunate longevity of the joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is providing the environmental science community a nearly unbroken data record (as of April 2012, over 14 years) of tropical and sub-tropical precipitation processes. TRMM was originally conceived in the mid-1980s as a climate mission with relatively modest goals, including monthly averaged precipitation. TRMM data were quickly exploited for model data assimilation and, beginning in 1999 with the availability of near real time data, for tropical cyclone warnings. To overcome the intermittently spaced revisit from these and other low Earth-orbiting satellites, many methods to merge PMW-based precipitation data and geostationary satellite observations have been developed, such as the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Product and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing method (CMORPH. The purpose of this article is not to provide a survey or assessment of these and other satellite-based precipitation datasets, which are well summarized in several recent articles. Rather, the intent is to demonstrate how the availability and continuity of satellite-based precipitation data records is transforming the ways that scientific and societal issues related to precipitation are addressed, in ways that would not be otherwise possible. These developments have taken place in parallel with the growth of an increasingly interconnected scientific environment. Scientists from different disciplines can easily interact with each other via information and materials they encounter online, and collaborate remotely without ever meeting each other in person. Likewise, these precipitation datasets are quickly and easily available via various data portals and are widely used. Within the framework of the NASA/JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission, these applications will become increasingly interconnected. We emphasize that precipitation observations by themselves provide an incomplete picture of the state of the atmosphere. For example, it is unlikely that a richer understanding of the global water cycle will be possible by standalone missions and algorithms, but must also involve some component of data, where model analyses of the physical state are constrained alongside multiple observations (e.g., precipitation, evaporation, radiation). The next section provides examples extracted from the many applications that use various high-resolution precipitation products. The final section summarizes the future system for global precipitation processing.

New and Updated Gridded Analysis Products provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziese, Markus; Schneider, Udo; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Finger, Peter; Schamm, Kirstin; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas

2016-04-01

Since its start in 1989 the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) performs global analyses of monthly precipitation for the earth's land-surface on the basis of in-situ measurements. Meanwhile, the data set has continuously grown both in temporal coverage (original start of the evaluation period was 1986), as well as extent and quality of the underlying data base. The high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation requires an accordingly high density of measurement data. Data collected from national meteorological and hydrological services are the core of the GPCC data base, supported by global and regional data collections. Also the GPCC receives SYNOP and CLIMAT reports via WMO-GTS, which are mainly applied for near-real-time products. A high quality control effort is undertaken to remove miscoded and temporal or spatial dislocated data before entry into the GPCC archive, serving the basis for further interpolation and product generation. The GPCC archive holds records from almost 100 000 stations, among those three quarters with records long enough to serve the data basis of the GPCC suite of global precipitation products, comprising near-real-time as well as non-real-time products. Near-real-time products are the 'First Guess Monthly', 'First Guess Daily', 'Monitoring Product' and 'GPCC Drought Index'. These products are based on WMO-GTS data, e.g., SYNOP and CLIMAT reports and monthly totals calculated at CPC. Non-real-time products are the 'Full Data Monthly', 'Full Data Daily', 'Climatology', and 'HOMPRA-Europe'. Data from national meteorological and hydrological services and regional and global data collections are mainly used to calculate these products. Also WMO-GTS data are used if no other data are available. The majority of the products were released in an updated version, but 'Full Data Daily' and HOMPRA-Europe' are new products provided the first time. 'Full Data Daily' is a global analysis of daily precipitation totals from 1988 to 2013. 'HOMPRA-Europe' is an analysis of monthly precipitation totals from 5452 homogenized gauges in Europe with at least 90% data coverage for the period 1951 to 2005. The break detection and homogenizations were done by an adaptation of the PRODIGE scheme running in an automated mode. All GPCC products are available free of charge from the GPCC website at ftp://ftp-anon.dwd.de/pub/data/gpcc/html/download_gate.html and referenced by a digital object identifier (DOI) for easier citation, long lasting availability and a well-documented dissemination of the data files in the OGC compliant netCDF format An overview to the above mentioned GPCC products and data base will be given with a comparison of the products and example use cases. After all, GPCC products serve not only the agendas of GCOS, WCRP, GEWEX, UNEP, FAO, IPCC, UNESCO, but are basically providing reference observational data for the scientific community.

Analysis of Synoptic Weather Types and Its Influence on Precipitation in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaci, H.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

In this study, we investigated the relationship between synoptic weather types and rainfall patterns in the Marmara region, northwestern part of Turkey. For this purpose, the automated Lamb weather type classification method was applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily mean sea level pressure data for the period between 2001 and 2010. Ten synoptic weather types were found that represent the 90% of the synoptic patterns that affect the Marmara region. Based on the annual frequency analysis, mainly six synoptic weather types, 24% (NorthEast), 21% (North), 11% (South), 9% (SouthWest), 7% (Anticyclonic), 5% (Cyclonic), were found dominant in the region. Multiple comparison tests suggest that (i.e., Bonferroni test) northerly patterns (i.e., North and NorthEast) have statistically significantly higher percentages as compared to the southerly (i.e., South and SouthWest) and the rest of the patterns (i.e., Anticylonic and Cylonic). During winter months, N- and NE-patterns observed less frequently than the annual frequencies of them, 18% and 13% of the period, respectively. On the other hand, due to the formation of the low pressure center located over the central Mediterranean Sea, S- and SW-patterns were observed more frequently than their annual mean frequencies, 16% and 17%, respectively. During summer months, N- and NE-patterns become dominant in the region, and they constitute about three quarters of the period, 25% and 44%, respectively. The low pressure center located over central Anatolia and Black Sea brings moist and cool air to the region, preventing excessive heating during the summer season. Cyclonic patterns observed less frequent during the winter and fall months, about 3%. They become more frequent during the summer season, 9% as a result of the shifting of the subtropical jet stream to the south, and the seasonal movement of the Basra low pressure toward the inner and northern parts of the Anatolian peninsula. On the other hand, Anticyclonic patterns are more common in the fall season 11% due to the expansion of spatial extent of the anticyclone center located over the Caspian Sea. Daily precipitation records for the period of between 2001 and 2010 belong to 14 meteorological stations in the region were investigated to understand the influence of synoptic weather types on precipitation. Based on daily precipitation records, about one-third of the NE-patterns result in precipitation which is slightly larger than patterns from other directions. The corresponding values for SW-, N- and S-patterns are 29%, 25% and 25%, respectively. Northerly patterns (N and NE) causes more frequent precipitation on the northern and eastern parts of the region. On the other hand, southerly patterns (S and SW) are more influential and cause more frequent precipitation on the south and northwestern parts of the region. Therefore, frequency of synoptic weather types and daily precipitation records suggest that precipitation regimes are of a different nature in northern and southern parts of the Marmara region. Keywords Synoptic weather types; Marmara Region; Lamb classification; Rainfall patterns

Long-term enrichment of the stable isotopic composition of stream water due to the release of groundwater recharge from extreme precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutt, D. F.

2017-12-01

The isotopic composition of surface and groundwater is impacted by a multitude of hydrologic processes. The long-term response of these systems to hydrologic change is critical for appropriately interpreting isotopic information for streamflow generation, stream-aquifer-coupling, sources of water to wells, and understanding recharge processes. To evaluate the response time of stream-aquifer systems to extreme precipitation events we use a long-term isotope dataset from Western Massachusetts with drainage areas ranging from 0.1 to > 800 km2. The year of 2011 was the wettest calendar year on record and the months of August and September of 2011 were the wettest consecutive two-month period in the 123 year record. Stable isotopic composition of surface waters of catchments ranging from 1 - 1000 km2 show an enrichment due to summertime and Tropical Storm precipitation. Enrichment in potential recharge water is shown to have a significant long-term impact (> 3 hydrologic years) on the isotopic composition of both surface and groundwater. This highlights the importance of groundwater sources of baseflow to streams and the transient storage and release mechanisms of shallow groundwater storage. The length of isotopic recession of stream water are also a strong function of watershed area. It is concluded that the stream water isotopes are consistent with a large pulse of water being stored and released from enriched groundwater emplaced during this period of above-average precipitation. Ultimately the results point to the importance of considering hydrological processes of streamflow generation and their role in hydrologic processes beyond traditional catchment response analysis.

Modern calibration of Tussac grass (Poa flabellata) as a new paleoclimate proxy in the Falkland Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groff, D. V.; Williams, D. G.; Gill, J. L.

2017-12-01

Monospecific stands of Tussac grasses (Poa flabellata) are a peat forming community found along coastal fringes of the Falkland Islands, and other sub-Antarctic islands in the South Atlantic region. Vegetation in peatlands record variation in regional precipitation and temperature in the cellulose of root and leaf plant tissues. A modern proof-of-concept study has determined how modern living P. flabellata records temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation using carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) stable isotopes of leaf and root cellulose. At four locations in the Falkland Islands, P. flabellata plants were collected monthly and temperature (°C) and relative humidity (%) were measured continuously between September 1, 2015 to September 1, 2016. Monthly composite precipitation at each location was used to construct a local meteoric water line using δ2H and δ18O. Measurements of δ13C in leaf cellulose positively correlated with monthly average temperature (Pearson's r=0.82) and negatively correlated with relative humidity (Pearson's r = -0.76) across all sites, but not δ13C of root cellulose. Across all sites, the mean summer δ13C of leaf cellulose (-24.28‰) was significantly greater than winter (-26.80‰; t=8.91, df=73, p<0.001), and mean seasonal temperatures range from 9.32°C to 3.68°C for summer and winter, respectively. Measurements of δ18O in precipitation and leaf cellulose indicate a weak negative correlation (Pearson's r = -0.20), as well as δ18O in root cellulose (Pearson's r= -0.30). The δ13C isotope composition in leaf cellulose, along with the abundance of macrofossil P. flabellata leaves in peat deposits spanning the Holocene, supports the use of coastal grasslands formed by P. flabellata in the Falkland Islands as a paleoclimate proxy in the South Atlantic region.

Climagramms as a Possibility of Evaluation of Hazards from Agrometeorological Point of View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potop, V.; Kožnarová, V.; Klabzuba, J.; Turkott, L.

2009-04-01

This paper focuses particularly on the graphical method representation of the drought spells, which serves modeling of the time and spatial aspects of these events. In particular, we have applied Walter-Lieth's climograms and thermopluviograms in order to monitor and analyse droughts in an agrometeorological year (i.e. including the winter season). The latter provide a new design of evaluation of longer sequences from many years of observations. In other words, long time series can be evaluated by the thermopluviogram method exactly. We are proposing thermopluviogramm, which allows a combination of both the deviation of temperature from the long-term data and the percentage of long-term amounts of precipitation to be shown in the same graph. Modeling of thermopluviogramm has not been difficult. In the centre of this diagram we have placed the long term mean (or the standard period, e.g. 1961-1990) with the following coordinates: monthly average air temperature (x-axis) and monthly amount of precipitation (y-axis). Thus, the scale on the periphery shows the air temperature deviation from the long term mean and the percentage of the long term mean precipitation sum which makes the termopluviogramm applicable to any location worldwide. The basic diagram has been arranged as follows: The x-axis shows the average air temperature, with a 0.0o C deviation from the standard period (∆ t) marked in the centre of the graph. Depending on the size of deviation for a given period extreme conditions are indicated on the x-axis as follows: cold, very cold, extraordinary cold, normal, warm, very warm and extraordinary warm. The y-axis shows the amount of precipitation in a similar manner: the standard period value is 100%, which is also located in the centre of the graph. Below or upward this value, extreme conditions are shown: extraordinary dry, very dry, dry, normal, wet, very wet and extraordinary wet. Since the Zatec weather station is situated in the rain shadow of the "Krusne hory" (Ore Mountains) chain and is therefore in the driest region of the country, it was adopted as a reference station for the evaluations of the drought years. The assessment has been conducted on 47 years (1961-2007) of meteorological information recorded at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. According to Walter-Lieth's climagramms in a given part of the country, the drought spells have occurred during 59 months (which constituted 41 drought spells). Using the estimation of the statistical data on the basis of the climogramms we may distinguish 2 more cases with a total of 4-months of drought spells each, which can be divided into 1-2 periods respectively. One such case was noticed in 2003. This year the drought had begun in the month of June and had ended in October. Thus, the 2003 drought year was divided into 2 drought spells with a short interval between them. Conforming to thermopluviogramms, extraordinary drought years were recorded in the winter season for December: 2007, 1975, 1983, 1963, 1964; January: 2002, 1989, 1991 and 1971; and for February it was recorded in 1982. For the spring season extraordinary drought years were recorded in 1984 (March), 2007 and 1993 (April), 1998 (May). For the summer season extraordinary drought months were recorded only in July (1990 and 1964) and August (1973 and 2003). In the months of autumn they were recorded in October (1985) and November (2007). Keywords: thermopluviogramms, Walter-Lieth's climagramms, drought. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Research Projects MSM No. 6046070901 and QH72257. Evaluation of agricultural soil fund with respect to environment protection".

Investigating late Holocene variations in hydroclimate and the stable isotope composition of precipitation using southern South American peatlands: an hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daley, T. J.; Mauquoy, D.; Chambers, F. M.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Hughes, P. D. M.; Loader, N. J.; Roland, T. P.; van Bellen, S.; Garcia-Meneses, P.; Lewin, S.

2012-09-01

Ombrotrophic raised peatlands provide an ideal archive for integrating late Holocene records of variations in hydroclimate and the estimated stable isotope composition of precipitation with recent instrumental measurements. Modern measurements of mean monthly surface air temperature, precipitation, and δD and δ18O-values in precipitation from the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries provide a short but invaluable record with which to investigate modern relationships between these variables, thereby enabling improved interpretation of the peatland palaeodata. Stable isotope data from two stations in the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) from southern South America (Punta Arenas, Chile and Ushuaia, Argentina) were analysed for the period 1982 to 2008 and compared with longer-term meteorological data from the same locations (1890 to present and 1931 to present, respectively). δD and δ18O-values in precipitation have exhibited quite different trends in response to local surface air temperature and precipitation amount. At Punta Arenas, there has been a marked increase in the seasonal difference between summer and winter δ18O-values. A decline in the deuterium excess of summer precipitation at this station was associated with a general increase in relative humidity at 1000 mb over the surface of the Southeast Pacific Ocean, believed to be the major vapour source for the local precipitation. At Ushuaia, a fall in δ18O-values was associated with an increase in the mean annual amount of precipitation. Both records are consistent with a southward retraction and increase in zonal wind speed of the austral westerly wind belt. These regional differences, observed in response to a known driver, should be detectable in peatland sites close to the GNIP stations. Currently, insufficient data with suitable temporal resolution are available to test for these regional differences over the last 3000 yr. Existing peatland palaeoclimate data from two sites near Ushuaia, however, provide evidence for changes in the late Holocene that are consistent with the pattern observed in modern observations.

A Two-year Record of Daily Rainfall Isotopes from Fiji: Implications for Reconstructing Precipitation from Speleothem δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brett, M.; Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.

2015-12-01

Oxygen isotopes in speleothem provide opportunities to construct precisely dated records of palaeoclimate variability, underpinned by an understanding of both the regional climate and local controls on isotopes in rainfall and groundwater. For tropical islands, a potential means to reconstruct past rainfall variability is to exploit the generally high correlation between rainfall amount and δ18O: the 'amount effect'. The GNIP program provides δ18O data at monthly resolution for several tropical Pacific islands but there are few data for precipitation isotopes at daily resolution, for investigating the amount effect over different timescales in a tropical maritime setting. Timescales are important since meteoric water feeding a speleothem has undergone storage and mixing in the aquifer system and understanding how the isotope amount effect is preserved in aquifer recharge has fundamental implications on the interpretation of speleothem δ18O in terms of palaeo-precipitation. The islands of Fiji host speleothem caves. Seasonal precipitation is related to the movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and interannual variations in rainfall are coupled to ENSO behaviour. Individual rainfall events are stratiform or convective, with proximal moisture sources. We have daily resolution isotope data for rainfall collected at the University of the South Pacific in Suva, covering every rain event in 2012 and 2013. δ18O varies between -18‰ and +3‰ with the annual weighted averages at -7.6‰ and -6.8‰ respectively, while total recorded rainfall amount is similar in both years. We shall present analysis of our data compared with GNIP, meteorological data and back trajectory analyses to demonstrate the nature of the relationship between rainfall amount and isotopic signatures over this short timescale. Comparison with GNIP data for 2012-13 will shed light on the origin of the amount effect at monthly and seasonal timescales in convective, maritime, tropical climates.

A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Broderick, Ciaran; Burt, Timothy P.; Curley, Mary; Duffy, Catriona; Hall, Julia; Harrigan, Shaun; Matthews, Tom K. R.; Macdonald, Neil; McCarthy, Gerard; McCarthy, Mark P.; Mullan, Donal; Noone, Simon; Osborn, Timothy J.; Ryan, Ciara; Sweeney, John; Thorne, Peter W.; Walsh, Seamus; Wilby, Robert L.

2018-03-01

A continuous 305-year (1711-2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British-Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series. Annually, the most recent decade (2006-2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency with other long-term observations strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record - all consistent with a strongly positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (tree-ring) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation is much larger than previously thought, while relationships with key modes of climate variability are time-variant. The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multi-centennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former finding should be regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in further regions.

Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonelli, Giovanni; Coppola, Anna; Salvatore, Maria Cristina; Baroni, Carlo; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Ripullone, Francesco; Borghetti, Marco; Conte, Emanuele; Tognetti, Roberto; Marchetti, Marco; Lombardi, Fabio; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio; Pelfini, Manuela; Cherubini, Paolo; Provenzale, Antonello; Maggi, Valter

2017-11-01

A first assessment of the main climatic drivers that modulate the tree-ring width (RW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) along the Italian Peninsula and northeastern Sicily was performed using 27 forest sites, which include conifers (RW and MXD) and broadleaves (only RW). Tree-ring data were compared using the correlation analysis of the monthly and seasonal variables of temperature, precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI, used to characterize meteorological droughts) against each species-specific site chronology and against the highly sensitive to climate (HSTC) chronologies (based on selected indexed individual series). We find that climate signals in conifer MXD are stronger and more stable over time than those in conifer and broadleaf RW. In particular, conifer MXD variability is directly influenced by the late summer (August, September) temperature and is inversely influenced by the summer precipitation and droughts (SPI at a timescale of 3 months). The MXD sensitivity to August-September (AS) temperature and to summer drought is mainly driven by the latitudinal gradient of summer precipitation amounts, with sites in the northern Apennines showing stronger climate signals than sites in the south. Conifer RW is influenced by the temperature and drought of the previous summer, whereas broadleaf RW is more influenced by summer precipitation and drought of the current growing season. The reconstruction of the late summer temperatures for the Italian Peninsula for the past 300 years, based on the HSTC chronology of conifer MXD, shows a stable model performance that underlines periods of climatic cooling (and likely also wetter conditions) in 1699, 1740, 1814, 1914 and 1938, and follows well the variability of the instrumental record and of other tree-ring-based reconstructions in the region. Considering a 20-year low-pass-filtered series, the reconstructed temperature record consistently deviates < 1 °C from the instrumental record. This divergence may also be due to the precipitation patterns and drought stresses that influence the tree-ring MXD at our study sites. The reconstructed late summer temperature variability is also linked to summer drought conditions and it is valid for the west-east oriented region including Sardinia, Sicily, the Italian Peninsula and the western Balkan area along the Adriatic coast.

Probability of occurrence of monthly and seasonal winter precipitation over Northwest India based on antecedent-monthly precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dimri, A. P.; Osuri, Krishna K.

2018-05-01

Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic systems, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), and is crucial for Rabi (DJF) crops. In this study, the role of winter precipitation at seasonal and monthly scale over NWI and its nine meteorological subdivisions has been analyzed. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period of 1901-2013 is used. Results indicated that the seasonal precipitation over NWI is below (above) the long-term mean in most of the years, when precipitation in any of the month (December/January/February) is in deficit (excess). The contribution of December precipitation (15-20%) to the seasonal (DJF) precipitation is lesser than January (35-40%) and February (35-50%) over all the subdivisions. December (0.60), January (0.57), and February (0.69) precipitation is in-phase (correlation) with the corresponding winter season precipitation. However, January precipitation is not in-phase with the corresponding December (0.083) and February (-0.03) precipitation, while December is in-phase with the February (0.21). When monthly precipitation (December or January or December-January or February) at subdivision level over NWI is excess (deficit); then, the probability of occurrence of seasonal excess (deficit) precipitation is high (almost nil). When antecedent-monthly precipitation is a deficit or excess, the probability of monthly (January or February or January + February) precipitation to be a normal category is >60% over all the subdivisions. This study concludes that the December precipitation is a good indicator to estimate the performance of January, February, January-February, and the seasonal (DJF) precipitation.

Detecting and Predicting Climatic Variation from Old-Growth Baldcypress

Treesearch

Gregory A. Reams; Paul C. van Deusen

1998-01-01

Tree-ring data can extend back in time for thousands of years allowing researchers to reconstruct certain environmental factors that have left an imprint or signal in the tree-ring record. Typically, these factors include reconstructions of annual precipitation or temperature for months or seasons to which a particular tree species is sensitive. Over the last several...

Precipitation Impacts of a Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.; Frei, A.; Gong, G.; Ghatak, D.; Robinson, D. A.; Kindig, D.

2009-12-01

Since the beginning of the modern satellite record in October 1978, the extent of Arctic sea ice has declined in all months, with the strongest downward trend at the end of the melt season in September. Recently the September trends have accelerated. Through 2001, the extent of September sea ice was decreasing at a rate of -7 per cent per decade. By 2006, the rate of decrease had risen to -8.9 per cent per decade. In September 2007, Arctic sea ice extent fell to its lowest level recorded, 23 per cent below the previous record set in 2005, boosting the downward trend to -10.7 per cent per decade. Ice extent in September 2008 was the second lowest in the satellite record. Including 2008, the trend in September sea ice extent stands at -11.8 percent per decade. Compared to the 1970s, September ice extent has retreated by 40 per cent. Summer 2009 looks to repeat the anomalously low ice conditions that characterized the last couple of years. Scientists have long expected that a shrinking Arctic sea ice cover will lead to strong warming of the overlying atmosphere, and as a result, affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. Recent results show clear evidence of Arctic warming linked to declining ice extent, yet observational evidence for responses of atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns is just beginning to emerge. Rising air temperatures should lead to an increase in the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere, with the potential to impact autumn precipitation. Although climate models predict a hemispheric wide decrease in snow cover as atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase, increased precipitation, particular in autumn and winter may result as the Arctic transitions towards a seasonally ice free state. In this study we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a cyclone tracking algorithm to investigate the influence of recent extreme ice loss years on precipitation patterns in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. Results show enhanced cyclone associated precipitation in autumn over Siberia for anomalously low ice years compared with anomalously high ice years along with a strengthening of the North Atlantic Storm track.

The Southern Oscillation recorded in the δ18O of corals from Tarawa Atoll

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, Julia E.; Fairbanks, Richard G.

1990-10-01

In the western equatorial Pacific, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is characterized by precipitation variability associated with the migration of the Indonesian low pressure cell to the region of the date line and the equator. During ENSO events, Tarawa Atoll (1°N, 172°E) experiences heavy rainfall which has an estimated δ18O of about -8 to -10‰ δ18OSMOW. At Tarawa, sufficient precipitation of this composition falls during ENSO events to alter the δ18O and the salinity of the surface waters. Oxygen isotope records from two corals collected off the reef crest of Tarawa reflect rainfall variations associated with both weak and strong ENSO conditions, with approximately monthly resolution. Coral skeletal δ18O variations due to small sea surface temperature (SST) changes are secondary. These records demonstrate the remarkable ability of this technique to reconstruct variations in the position of the Indonesian Low from coral δ18O records in the western equatorial Pacific, a region which has few paleoclimatic records. The coral isotopic data correctly resolve the relative magnitudes of recent variations in the Southern Oscillation Index. Combining the Tarawa record with an oxygen isotopic history from a Galápagos Islands coral demonstrates the ability to distinguish the meteorologic (precipitation) and oceanographic (SST) anomalies that characterize ENSO events across the Pacific Basin over the period of common record (1960-1979). Comparison of the intensity of climatic anomalies at these two sites yields insight into the spatial variability of ENSO events. Isotope records from older corals can provide high-resolution, Pacific-wide reconstructions of ENSO behavior during periods of different climate boundary conditions.

The exceptionally wet year of 2014 over Greece: a statistical and synoptical-atmospheric analysis over the region of Thessaloniki

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolika, Konstantia; Maheras, Panagiotis; Anagnostopoulou, Christina

2018-05-01

The highest rainfall totals (912.2 mm) and the largest number of raindays (133 days), since 1958, were recorded in Thessaloniki during the year of 2014. Extreme precipitation heights were also observed on a seasonal, monthly and daily basis. The examined year presented the highest daily rainfall intensity, the maximum daily precipitation and the largest number of heavy precipitation days (greater than 10 mm), and it also exceeded the previous amounts of precipitation of very wet (95th percentile) and extremely wet (99th percentile) days. According to the automatic circulation type classification scheme that was used, it was found that during this exceptionally wet year, the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic types at the near surface geopotential level increases, while the same types decreased at a higher atmospheric level (500 hPa). The prevailing type was type C which is located at the centre of the study area (Greece), but several other cyclonic types changed during this year not only their frequency but also their percentage of rainfall as well as their daily precipitation intensity. It should be highlighted that these findings differentiated on the seasonal-scale analysis. Moreover, out of the three teleconnection patterns that were examined (Scandinavian Pattern, Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern and North Sea-Caspian Pattern), the Scandinavian one (SCAND) was detected during the most of the months of 2014 meaning that it was highly associated with intense precipitation over Greece.

The Avalanche Catastrophe of El Teniente-chile: August 8 of 1944.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara, J.; Baros, M.

The avalanche of El Teniente-Chile (~34S) August 8 of 1944, was the most serious avalanche accident in Chile of the last 100 years. On the night of August 8, 1944, a major avalanche impacted a The Sewell, a worked village of the Copper Mine of El Teniente, there were 102 fatalities, 8 building, one school and one bridged de- stroyed. Due to a storm over the central part of Chile where intense precipitation fall over the Andes mountains during nine days. Historical precipitation records near to Sewell shows that total rainfall during the storms was 299mm (La Rufina) and 349mm (Bullileo), and the day before of avalanche the 24 hours rain intensity was 93mm. The Weilbull statistical analysis of monthly snowfall (water equivalent) record in Sewell from 1912-2001 show that the total August 1944 snowfall (621mm) was the larger of the all historical records and the return period is close one events in 180 years, and the annual snowfall during 1944 was 1140mm and return periods was 3.8 years. KEYWRODS: Chile, Avalanches, Andes Mountains, Avalanche Disaster, Historical Snow Records.

Hydrothermal extremes at the South-West Pribaikalie during the current climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voropay, Nadezhda

2017-04-01

Climatic extremes of air temperature and precipitation were analyzed for the Tunka Intermountain Depression (South-West Pribaikalie, Buryatia, Russian Federation). Intermountain depressions occupy a quarter of the territory of the Baikal region. The specific climatic conditions in the depressions are formed due to the geographic location and the influence of latitudinal zonation and altitudinal gradients. Air temperature and precipitation data records from at weather stations for the period 1940-2015 were analyzed. Long-term average annual temperature is negative and varies from -0.8 °C to -2.4 °C. Air temperature absolute minimum is -48 °C, absolute maximum is +36 °C. The long-term average annual precipitation is 370-480 mm, but in some years annual precipitation reach 760 mm. The summer months have about 70% of the total annual precipitation, in July and August the sum may reach 340 mm. Maximum daily sum of rainfalls is 80 mm. The contribution of the global and regional circulation characteristics into the variability of regional climatic characteristics was estimated.

Changes in precipitation isotope-climate relationships from temporal grouping and aggregation of weekly-resolved USNIP data: impacts on paleoclimate and environmental applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akers, P. D.; Welker, J. M.

2015-12-01

Spatial variations in precipitation isotopes have been the focus of much recent research, but relatively less work has explored changes at various temporal scales. This is partly because most spatially-diverse and long-term isotope databases are offered at a monthly resolution, while daily or event-level records are spatially and temporally limited by cost and logistics. A subset of 25 United States Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (USNIP) sites with weekly-resolution in the east-central United States was analyzed for site-specific relationships between δ18O and δD (the local meteoric water line/LMWL), δ18O and surface temperature, and δ18O and precipitation amount. Weekly data were then aggregated into monthly and seasonal data to examine the effect of aggregation on correlation and slope values for each of the relationships. Generally, increasing aggregation improved correlations (>25% for some sites) due to a reduced effect of extreme values, but estimates on regression variable error increased (>100%) because of reduced sample sizes. Aggregation resulted in small, but significant drops (5-25%) in relationship slope values for some sites. Weekly data were also grouped by month and season to explore changes in relationships throughout the year. Significant subannual variability exists in slope values and correlations even for sites with very strong overall correlations. LMWL slopes are highest in winter and lowest in summer, while the δ18O-surface temperature relationship is strongest in spring. Despite these overall trends, a high level of month-to-month and season-to-season variability is the norm for these sites. Researchers blindly applying overall relationships drawn from monthly-resolved databases to paleoclimate or environmental research risk assuming these relationships apply at all temporal resolutions. When possible, researchers should match the temporal resolution used to calculate an isotopic relationship with the temporal resolution of their applied proxy.

Homogeneity revisited: analysis of updated precipitation series in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bickici Arikan, Bugrayhan; Kahya, Ercan

2018-01-01

Homogeneous time series of meteorological variables are necessary for hydrologic and climate studies. Dependability of historical precipitation data is subjected to keen evaluation prior to every study in water resources, hydrology, and climate change fields. This study aims to characterize the homogeneity of long-term Turkish precipitation data in order to ensure that they can be reliably used. The homogeneity of monthly precipitation data set was tested using the standard normal homogeneity test, Buishand test, Von Neumann ratio test, and Pettitt test at the 5% significance level across Turkey. Our precipitation records including the most updated observations, extracted from 160 meteorological stations, for the periods 1974-2014 were analyzed by all the four homogeneity tests. According to the results of all tests, five out of 160 stations have an inhomogeneity. With regard to our strict confirmation rule, 44 out of 160 stations are said to be inhomogeneous since they failed from at least one of the four tests. The breaks captured by the Buishand and Pettitt tests usually tend to appear in the middle of the precipitation series, whereas the ability of standard normal homogeneity test is in favor of identifying inhomogeneities mostly at the beginning or at the end of the records. Our results showed that 42 out of 44 inhomogeneous stations passed all the four tests after applying a correction procedure based on the double mass curve analysis. Available metadata was used to interpret the detected inhomogeneity.

Drought Analysis for Kuwait Using Standardized Precipitation Index

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Implementation of adequate measures to assess and monitor droughts is recognized as a major matter challenging researchers involved in water resources management. The objective of this study is to assess the hydrologic drought characteristics from the historical rainfall records of Kuwait with arid environment by employing the criterion of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). A wide range of monthly total precipitation data from January 1967 to December 2009 is used for the assessment. The computation of the SPI series is performed for intermediate- and long-time scales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. The drought severity and duration are also estimated. The bivariate probability distribution for these two drought characteristics is constructed by using Clayton copula. It has been shown that the drought SPI series for the time scales examined have no systematic trend component but a seasonal pattern related to rainfall data. The results are used to perform univariate and bivariate frequency analyses for the drought events. The study will help evaluating the risk of future droughts in the region, assessing their consequences on economy, environment, and society, and adopting measures for mitigating the effect of droughts. PMID:25386598

Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.

2005-12-01

Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.

Comparison of drought events detected by SPI calculated from different historical precipitation data sets - case study from Southern Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brencic, M.; Hictaler, J.

2012-04-01

During recent years substantial efforts were directed toward the reconstruction of past meteorological data sets of precipitation, air temperature, air pressure and sunshine. In Alpine space of Europe long tradition of meteorological data monitoring exist starting with the first modern measurements in late 18th century. However, older data were obtained under very different conditions, standards and quality. Consequently direct comparison between data sets of different observation points is not possible. Several methods defined as data homogenisation procedures were developed intended to enable comparison of data from different observation points and sources. In spite of the fact that homogenisation procedures are scientifically agreed final result represented as homogenised data series depends on the ability and approach of the interpreters. Well know data set from the Greater Alpine region based on the common homogenisation procedure is HISTALP data series. However, HISTALP data set is not the only available homogenised data set in the region. Local agencies responsible for meteorological observations (e.g. in Slovenia Environmental Agency of Slovenia - ARSO) perform their own homogenisation procedures. Because more detailed information about measuring procedures and locations for the particular stations is available for them one can expect differences between homogenised data sets. Longer meteorological data sets can be used to detect past drought events of various magnitudes. They can help to discern past droughts and their characteristics. A very frequently used meteorological drought index is standardized precipitation index - SPI. The nature of SPI is designed to detect events of low frequency. With the help of this index periods of extremely low precipitation can be defined. It is usually based on monthly amount of precipitation where cumulative precipitation amount for the particular time period is calculated. During the calculation of SPI with a time series of monthly precipitation data for a location can calculate the SPI for any month in the record for the previous i months where i=1,2,3, …, 12, …, 24, …. 48, … depending upon the time scale of the interest. A 3 month SPI index is usually used for a short-term or seasonal drought index, a 12 month SPI is used for an intermediate term drought index, and a 48 month SPI is used for a long term drought index. In the paper results of SPI calculations are presented for the precipitation stations in the region of the Southern Alps for the last 200 years. Compared are results of differently homogenised data sets for the same observation points. We have performed comparison of homogenised data sets between HISTALP and ARSO data base. For the period after World War II when reliable precipitation measurements are available comparison was performed also between raw data series and homogenised data series. Differences between calculated form short term SPI (from 1 to 6 months) are small and don't influence the interpretation of short term drought appearance. With the prolonged length of SPI differences between calculated values rise and influence the detection of longer term drought appearance. It can be also illustrated that differences among parameters of model distribution (gamma distribution) are larger for longer SPI than for shorter SPI. It can be empirically concluded that homogenisation procedure of precipitation data sets can importantly influence the SPI values and has impact on conclusions about long term drought appearance.

The Relationships between Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST and Northeast Brazil Monthly Precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Repelli, Carlos A.; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Kushnir, Yochanan

1998-04-01

The monthly patterns of northeast Brazil (NEB) precipitation are analyzed in relation to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, using singular value decomposition. It is found that the relationships between precipitation and SST in both basins vary considerably throughout the rainy season (February-May). In January, equatorial Pacific SST is weakly correlated with precipitation in small areas of southern NEB, but Atlantic SST shows no significant correlation with regional precipitation. In February, Pacific SST is not well related to precipitation, but south equatorial Atlantic SST is positively correlated with precipitation over the northern Nordeste, the latter most likely reflecting an anomalously early (or late) southward migration of the ITCZ precipitation zone. During March, equatorial Pacific SST is negatively correlated with Nordeste precipitation, but no consistent relationship between precipitation and Atlantic SST is found. Atlantic SST-precipitation correlations for April and May are the strongest found among all months or either ocean. Precipitation in the Nordeste is positively correlated with SST in the south tropical Atlantic and negatively correlated with SST in the north tropical Atlantic. These relationships are strong enough to determine the structure of the seasonal mean SST-precipitation correlations, even though the corresponding patterns for the earlier months of the season are quite different. Pacific SST-precipitation correlations for April and May are similar to those for March. Extreme wet (dry) years for the Nordeste occur when both Pacific and Atlantic SST patterns for April and May occur simultaneously. A separate analysis reinforces previous findings in showing that SST in the tropical Pacific and the northern tropical Atlantic are positively correlated and that tropical Pacific-south Atlantic correlations are negligible.Time-lagged analyses show the potential for forecasting either seasonal mean or monthly precipitation patterns with some degree of skill. In some instances, individual monthly mean SST versus seasonal mean (February-May) precipitation relationships differ considerably from the corresponding monthly SST versus monthly precipitation relationships. It is argued that the seasonal mean relationships result from the relatively strong monthly relationships toward the end of the season, combined with the considerable persistence of SST in both oceans.

Long-Term Precipitation Isotope Ratios (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) in the Northeast US Reflect Atlantic Ocean Warming and Shifts in Moisture Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puntsag, T.; Welker, J. M.; Mitchell, M. J.; Klein, E. S.; Campbell, J. L.; Likens, G.

2014-12-01

The global water cycle is exhibiting dramatic changes as global temperatures increase resulting in increases in: drought extremes, flooding, alterations in storm track patterns with protracted winter storms, and greater precipitation variability. The mechanisms driving these changes can be difficult to assess, but the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) provide a means to help understand these water cycle changes. However, extended temporal records of isotope ratios in precipitation are infrequent, especially in the US. In our study we analyzed precipitation isotope ratio data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire that has the longest US precipitation isotope record, to determine: 1) the monthly composited averages and trends from 1967 to 2012 (45 years); ; 2) the relationships between abiotic properties such as local temperatures, precipitation type, storm tracks and isotope ratio changes; and 3) the influence of regional shifts in moisture sources and/or changes in N Atlantic Ocean water conditions on isotope values. The seasonal variability of Hubbard Brook precipitation isotope ratios is consistent with other studies, as average δ18O values are ~ -15‰ in January and ~ -5 ‰ in July. However, over the 45 year record there is a depletion trend in the δ 18O values (becoming isotopically lighter with a greater proportion of 16O), which coupled with less change in δ 2H leads to increases in d-excess values from ~ -10‰ around 1970 to greater than 10‰ in 2009. These changes occurred during a period of warming as opposed to cooling local temperatures indicating other processes besides temperature are controlling long-term water isotope traits in this region. We have evidence that these changes in precipitation isotope traits are controlled in large part by an increases in moisture being sourced from a warming N Atlantic Ocean that is providing evaporated, isotopically-depleted precipitation to the region. Thus, the warming of the N Atlantic Ocean appears to influence the climate and the precipitation isotopes of Northeastern coastal regions and could be a larger water source to watersheds in this North American region.

Groundwater level trends and drivers in two northern New England glacial aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, James B.; Chalmers, Ann T.; Mack, Thomas J.; Smith, Thor E.; Harte, Philip T.

2016-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends and predictors of groundwater levels by month from two well-studied northern New England forested headwater glacial aquifers: Sleepers River, Vermont, 44 wells, 1992-2013; and Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, 15 wells, 1979-2004. Based on Kendall Tau tests with Sen slope determination, a surprising number of well-month combinations had negative trends (decreasing water levels) over the respective periods. Sleepers River had slightly more positive than negative trends overall, but among the significant trends (p < 0.1), negative trends dominated 67 to 40. At Hubbard Brook, negative trends outnumbered positive trends by a nearly 2:1 margin and all seven of the significant trends were negative. The negative trends occurred despite generally increasing trends in monthly and annual precipitation. This counterintuitive pattern may be a result of increased precipitation intensity causing higher runoff at the expense of recharge, such that evapotranspiration demand draws down groundwater storage. We evaluated predictors of month-end water levels by multiple regression of 18 variables related to climate, streamflow, snowpack, and prior month water level. Monthly flow and prior month water level were the two strongest predictors for most months at both sites. The predictive power and ready availability of streamflow data can be exploited as a proxy to extend limited groundwater level records over longer time periods.

Using cloud and climate data to understand warm season hydrometeorology from diurnal to monthly timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, A. K.; Tawfik, A. B.; Desjardins, R. L.

2016-12-01

We use 600 station years of hourly data from 14 stations on the Canadian Prairies to map the warm season hydrometeorology. The months from April (after snowmelt) to September, have a very similar coupling between surface thermodynamics and opaque cloud cover, which has been calibrated to give cloud radiative forcing. We can derive both the mean diurnal ranges and the diurnal imbalances as a function of opaque cloud cover. For the monthly diurnal climate, we compute the coupling coefficients with opaque cloud cover and lagged precipitation. In April the diurnal cycle climate has memory of precipitation back to freeze-up in November. During the growing season months of June, July and August, there is memory of precipitation back to March. Monthly mean temperature depends strongly on cloud but little on precipitation, while monthly mean mixing ratio depends on precipitation, but rather little on cloud. The coupling coefficients to cloud and precipitation change with increasing monthly precipitation anomaly. This observational climate analysis provides a firm basis for model evaluation.

18 years of continuous observation of tritium and atmospheric precipitations in Ramnicu Valcea (Romania): A time series analysis.

PubMed

Duliu, Octavian G; Varlam, Carmen; Shnawaw, Muataz Dheyaa

2018-05-16

To get more information on the origin of tritium and to evidence any possible presence of anthropogenic sources, between January 1999 and December 2016, the precipitation level and tritium concentration were monthly recorded and investigated by the Cryogenic Institute of Ramnicu Valcea, Romania. Compared with similar data covering a radius of about 1200 km westward, the measurements gave similar results concerning the time evolution of tritium content and precipitation level for the entire time interval excepting the period between 2009 and 2011 when the tritium concentrations showed a slight increase, most probable due to the activity of neighboring experimental pilot plant for tritium and deuterium separation. Regardless this fact, all data pointed towards a steady tendency of tritium concentrations to decrease with an annual rate of about 1.4 ± 0.05%. The experimental data on precipitation levels and tritium concentrations form two complete time series whose time series analysis showed, at p < 0.01, the presence of a single one-year periodicity whose coincident maximums which correspond to late spring - early summer months suggest the existence of the Spring Leak mechanism with a possible contribution of the soil moisture remobilization during the warm period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ion microprobe δ18O analyses to calibrate slow growth rate speleothem records with regional δ18O records of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez-Villar, David; Lojen, Sonja; Krklec, Kristina; Kozdon, Reinhard; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cheng, Hai

2018-01-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions based on speleothems require a robust interpretation of their proxies. Detailed transfer functions of external signals to the speleothem can be obtained using models supported by monitoring data. However, the transferred signal may not be stationary due to complexity of karst processes. Therefore, robust interpretations require the calibration of speleothem records with instrumental time series lasting no less than a decade. We present the calibration of a speleothem δ18O record from Postojna Cave (Slovenia) with the regional record of δ18O composition of precipitation during the last decades. Using local meteorological data and a regional δ18O record of precipitation, we developed a model that reproduces the cave drip water δ18O signal measured during a two-year period. The model suggests that the average water mixing and transit time in the studied aquifer is 11 months. Additionally, we used an ion microprobe to study the δ18O record of the top 500 μm of a speleothem from the studied cave gallery. According to U-Th dates and 14C analyses, the uppermost section of the speleothem was formed during the last decades. The δ18O record of the top 500 μm of the speleothem has a significant correlation (r2 = 0.64; p-value <0.001) with the modelled δ18O record of cave drip water. Therefore, we confirm that the top 500 μm of the speleothem grew between the years 1984 and 2003 and that the speleothem accurately recorded the variability of the δ18O values of regional precipitation filtered by the aquifer. We show that the recorded speleothem δ18O signal is not seasonally biased and that the hydrological dynamics described during monitoring period were stationary during recent decades. This research demonstrates that speleothems with growth rates <50 μm/yr can also be used for calibration studies. Additionally, we show that the fit of measured and modelled proxy data can be used to achieve annually resolved chronologies in speleothems that were not actively growing at the time of collection and/or that do not record annual laminae.

Analysis of monthly, winter, and annual temperatures in Zagreb, Croatia, from 1864 to 2010: the 7.7-year cycle and the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Asok K.; Ogrin, Darko

2016-02-01

Long instrumental records of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation are very useful for studying regional climate in the past, present, and future. They can also be useful for understanding the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation processes on the regional climate. This paper investigates the monthly, winter, and annual temperature time series obtained from the instrumental records in Zagreb, Croatia, for the period 1864-2010. Using wavelet analysis, the dominant modes of variability in these temperature series are identified, and the time intervals over which these modes may persist are delineated. The results reveal that all three temperature records exhibit low-frequency variability with a dominant periodicity at around 7.7 years. The 7.7-year cycle has also been observed in the temperature data recorded at several other stations in Europe, especially in Northern and Western Europe, and may be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar/geomagnetic activity.

Heterogeneous seepage at the Nopal I natural analogue site, Chihuahua, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobson, Patrick F.; Ghezzehei, Teamrat A.; Cook, Paul J.; Rodríguez-Pineda, J. Alfredo; Villalba, Lourdes; de La Garza, Rodrigo

2012-02-01

A study of seepage occurring in an adit at the Nopal I uranium mine in Chihuahua, Mexico, was conducted as part of an integrated natural analogue study to evaluate the effects of infiltration and seepage on the mobilization and transport of radionuclides. An instrumented seepage collection system and local automated weather station permit direct correlation between local precipitation events and seepage. Field observations recorded between April 2005 and December 2006 indicate that seepage is highly heterogeneous with respect to time, location, and quantity. Seepage, precipitation, and fracture data were used to test two hypotheses: (1) that fast flow seepage is triggered by large precipitation events, and (2) that an increased abundance of fractures and/or fracture intersections leads to higher seepage volumes. A few zones in the back adit recorded elevated seepage volumes immediately following large (>20 mm/day) precipitation events, with transit times of less than 4 h through the 8-m thick rock mass. In most locations, there is a 1-6 month time lag between the onset of the rainy season and seepage, with longer times observed for the front adit. There is a less clear-cut relation between fracture abundance and seepage volume; processes such as evaporation and surface flow along the ceiling may also influence seepage.

Hydrologic drought of water year 2011 compared to four major drought periods of the 20th century in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shivers, Molly J.; Andrews, William J.

2013-01-01

Water year 2011 (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2011) was a year of hydrologic drought (based on streamflow) in Oklahoma and the second-driest year to date (based on precipitation) since 1925. Drought conditions worsened substantially in the summer, with the highest monthly average temperature record for all States being broken by Oklahoma in July (89.1 degrees Fahrenheit), June being the second hottest and August being the hottest on record for those months for the State since 1895. Drought conditions continued into the fall, with all of the State continuing to be in severe to exceptional drought through the end of September. In addition to effects on streamflow and reservoirs, the 2011 drought increased damage from wildfires, led to declarations of states of emergency, water-use restrictions, and outdoor burning bans; caused at least $2 billion of losses in the agricultural sector and higher prices for food and other agricultural products; caused losses of tourism and wildlife; reduced hydropower generation; and lowered groundwater levels in State aquifers. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an investigation to compare the severity of the 2011 drought with four previous major hydrologic drought periods during the 20th century – water years 1929–41, 1952–56, 1961–72, and 1976–81. The period of water years 1925–2011 was selected as the period of record because few continuous record streamflow-gaging stations existed before 1925, and gaps in time existed where no streamflow-gaging stations were operated before 1925. In water year 2011, statewide annual precipitation was the 2d lowest, statewide annual streamflow was 16th lowest, and statewide annual runoff was 42d lowest of those 87 years of record. Annual area-averaged precipitation totals by the nine National Weather Service climate divisions from water year 2011 were compared to those during four previous major hydrologic drought periods to show how precipitation deficits in Oklahoma varied by region. The nine climate divisions in Oklahoma had precipitation in water year 2011 ranging from 43 to 76 percent of normal annual precipitation, with the Northeast Climate Division having the closest to normal precipitation and the Southwest Climate Division having the greatest percentage of annual deficit. Based on precipitation amounts, water year 2011 ranked as the second driest of the 1925–2011 period, being exceeded only in one year of the 1952 to 1956 drought period. Regional streamflow patterns for water year 2011 indicate that streamflow in the Arkansas-White-Red water resources region, which includes all of Oklahoma, was relatively large, being only the 26th lowest since 1930, primarily because of normal or above-normal streamflow in the northern part of the region. Twelve long-term streamflow-gaging stations with periods of record ranging from 67 to 83 years were selected to show how streamflow deficits varied by region in Oklahoma. Statewide, streamflow in water year 2011 was greater than streamflows measured in years during the drought periods of 1929–41, 1952–56, 1961–72, and 1976–81. The hydrologic drought worsened going from the northeast toward the southwest in Oklahoma, ranging from 140 percent (above normal streamflow) in the northeast, to 13 percent of normal streamflow in southwestern Oklahoma. The relatively low streamflow in 2011 resulted in 83.3 percent of the statewide conservation storage being available at the end of the water year in major reservoirs, similar to conservation storage in the preceding severe drought year of 2006. The ranking of streamflow as the 16th smallest for the 1925–2011 period, despite precipitation being ranked the 2d smallest, may have been caused, in part, by the relatively large streamflow in northeastern Oklahoma during water year 2011.

Stable Isotopic Composition of Precipitation from 2015-2016 Central Texas Rainfall Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maupin, C. R.; McChesney, C. L.; Roark, B.; Gorman, M. K.; Housson, A. L.

2016-12-01

Central Texas lies within the Southern Great Plains, a region where rainfall is of tremendous agricultural and associated socioeconomic importance. Paleoclimate records from speleothems in central Texas caves may assist in placing historical and recent drought and pluvial events in the context of natural variability. Effective interpretation of such records requires the nature and origin of variations in the meteoric δ18O signal transmitted from cloud to speleothem to be understood. Here we present a record of meteoric δ18O and δD from each individual precipitation event (δ18Op and δDp), collected by rain gauge in Austin, Texas, USA, from April 2015 through 2016. Backwards hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectories (HYSPLITs) indicate the broader moisture source for each precipitation event during this time was the Gulf of Mexico. The local meteoric water line is within error of the global meteoric water line, suggesting minimal sourcing of evaporated continental vapor for precipitation. Total monthly rainfall followed the climatological pattern of a dual boreal spring and fall maximum, with highly variable event δ18Op and δDp values. Surface temperature during precipitation often exerts control over continental and mid latitude δ18Op values, but is not significantly correlated to study site δ18Op (p>0.10). Amount of rain falling during each precipitation event ("amount effect") explains a significant 18% of variance in δ18Op. We hypothesize that this relationship can be attributed to the following: 1) minimal recycling of continental water vapor during the study period; 2) the presence of synoptic conditions favoring intense boreal spring and fall precipitation, driven by a developing, and subsequently in-place, strong ENSO event coupled with a southerly flow from the open Gulf of Mexico; and 3) the meteorological nature of the predominant precipitating events over Texas during this time, mesoscale convective systems, which are known to produce an "amount effect" if effective in-storm downdraft-recycling is present. Continued rainfall monitoring and isotopic measurements are required to determine whether this relationship persists during years with synoptic conditions different from 2015-2016.

Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.

2017-11-01

The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50% of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70% when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20% of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100%. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier datasets over individual regions are identified in order to be more cautiously used in future regional climate studies.

How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

2013-02-01

SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

PERSIANN-CDR Daily Precipitation Dataset for Hydrologic Applications and Climate Studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K. L.; Ashouri, H.; Braithwaite, D.; Nguyen, P.; Thorstensen, A. R.

2015-12-01

Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network - Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) is a newly developed and released dataset which covers more than 3 decades (01/01/1983 - 03/31/2015 to date) of daily precipitation estimations at 0.25° resolution for 60°S-60°N latitude band. PERSIANN-CDR is processed using the archive of the Gridded Satellite IRWIN CDR (GridSat-B1) from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 2.5° monthly product for bias correction. The dataset has been released and made available for public access through NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/sds/cdr/CDRs/PERSIANN/Overview.pdf). PERSIANN-CDR has already shown its usefulness for a wide range of applications, including climate variability and change monitoring, hydrologic applications, and water resources system planning and management. This precipitation CDR data has also been used in studying the behavior of historical extreme precipitation events. Demonstration of PERSIANN-CDR data in detecting trends and variability of precipitation over the past 30 years, the potential usefulness of the dataset for evaluating climate model performance relevant to precipitation in retrospective mode, will be presented.

Exploring Historical Coffee and Climate Relations in Southern Guatemala: An Integration of Tree Ring Analysis and Remote Sensing Data =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pons, Diego

This dissertation makes use of a physical geography perspective to examine the relationship between agriculture and climate in Guatemala using dendrochronology. I examined the potential of high-resolution climate proxy data from dendrochronology to help fill in the gaps of past climate information to better understand the natural and anthropogenic variability of precipitation which, in turn, can inform Guatemala's agriculture sector. This research has demonstrated successful cross-dating and climate sensitivity of Abies guatemalensis in the Pacific slope of Guatemala. Based on this, I have produced a 124-year record of mean precipitation from June-July-August. The mean precipitation from June-July-August at this site seems to receive an important influence from the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean in the form of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the region 3.4. The analysis on the frequency of the precipitation records suggests that single year droughts dominate the record yet, periods of 9 years below-average rainfall can persist. Likewise, single year pluvial events also dominate the evaluated period. The long-term reconstruction of precipitation allowed to describe past relationships between coffee plantations and pests. For instance, the frequency analysis suggests that 4 or more consecutive periods of above-average precipitation are associated with several coffee pests and subsequently great economical losses due to crop failures, including the last coffee leaf rust crisis. This study also presents a streamflow reconstruction of the Upper Samala River watershed using a tree ring-width chronology derived from the Guatemalan fir (Abies guatemalensis) to reconstruct mean August-September-October streamflow volumes for the period 1889-2013. Our analysis shows that strong statistical correlations are present between tree-ring width measurements and monthly natural streamflow series. The mean August-September-October streamflow variability is dominated by single year events for both above and below the long-term mean. This reconstruction reveals important teleconnections with the ENSO 3.4 region and it is to our knowledge, the only streamflow reconstruction in Guatemala using tree-ring measurements. This new long-term record will be useful to recalculate historical discharge peaks and floods that affect agricultural areas in the mid and lower basin but also the hydroelectric production. Our analysis suggests that records from the GIMMS 3g v.0 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), are inversely correlated to precipitation in the Upper Samala River watershed at the location of the A. guatemalensis forest stand Kanchej. This suggest that the net solar radiation income during the cloud-free timing throughout the mid-summer drought could be partially responsible for promoting cloudiness by heating the SST and hence, promoting precipitation during the second peak of precipitation during September and October. The independent analyses of precipitation and NDVI sensitivity of A. guatemalensis and the correlation between precipitation and NDVI suggest that precipitation is a modulator of radial growth of A. guatemalensis in this location of Guatemala. These findings can be used to refine the knowledge on the climatic controls on A. guatemalensis radial growth.

Climate Prediction Center

Science.gov Websites

Outlook (Interactive) Temperature Precipitation One Month Outlook (Interactive) Temperature Precipitation 8-14 Day Outlook (Interactive) Temperature Precipitation Three Month Outlook (Interactive ) Temperature Precipitation Week 3-4 Outlooks Temperature Exp. Precipitation U.S. Hazards Outlook 3-7 Day 8-14

Estimating historical groundwater levels based on relations with hydrologic and meteorological variables in the U.S. glacial aquifer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; Nielsen, M. G.; Qi, S. L.

2018-07-01

A number of previous studies have examined relations between groundwater levels and hydrologic and meteorological variables over parts of the glacial aquifer system, but systematic analyses across the entire U.S. glacial aquifer system are lacking. We tested correlations between monthly groundwater levels measured at 1043 wells in the U.S. glacial aquifer system considered to be minimally influenced by human disturbance and selected hydrologic and meteorological variables with the goal of extending historical groundwater records where there were strong correlations. Groundwater levels in the East region correlated most strongly with short-term (1 and 3 month) averages of hydrologic and meteorological variables, while those in the Central and West Central regions yielded stronger correlations with hydrologic and meteorological variables averaged over longer time intervals (6-12 months). Variables strongly correlated with high and low annual groundwater levels were identified as candidate records for use in statistical linear models as a means to fill in and extend historical high and low groundwater levels respectively. Overall, 37.4% of study wells meeting data criteria had successful models for high and (or) low groundwater levels; these wells shared characteristics of relatively higher local precipitation, higher local land-surface slope, lower amounts of clay within the surficial sediments, and higher base-flow index. Streamflow and base flow served as explanatory variables in about two thirds of both high- and low-groundwater-level models in all three regions, and generally yielded more and better models compared to precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index. The use of variables such as streamflow with substantially longer and more complete records than those of groundwater wells provide a means for placing contemporary groundwater levels in a longer historical context and can support site-specific analyses such as groundwater modeling.

Regime shifts in the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years: A record of seabird population size and precipitation isotopes on Bjørnøya, Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, W. J.; Hormes, A.; Bakke, J.; Nicolaisen, L.

2015-12-01

The northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, and the Norwegian and Greenland Seas are subject to large hydrographic changes. These variations can influence oceanic heat transport to the Arctic, meridional overturning circulation, and atmospheric circulation patterns and thereby impact global climate patterns. Marine records suggest that numerous large-scale changes in the hydrography of the northern North Atlantic took place during the middle to late Holocene. Here, we report a record of nitrogen and hydrogen isotope measurements from a lake sediment core from Bjørnøya, Svalbard (74.38°N, 19.02°E) that documents major regime shifts in the climate of the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years. Bjørnøya is the nesting ground for one of the largest seabird populations in the North Atlantic. As top predators in the marine ecosystem, seabirds (and their guano) are enriched in 15N; during spring and summer months they deliver this isotopically enriched nitrogen to their nesting area. We developed a record of seabird population changes on Bjørnøya based on the bulk nitrogen isotope composition of sediments in a core collected from lake Ellasjøen. The record reveals multiple multicentennial scale changes in δ15N values (varying between ~8-12‰) that track past changes in the size of seabird populations. From the same sediment core, we also developed a record of δD of precipitation, by measuring δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Past intervals with the largest inferred bird populations correspond with the most enriched δD of precipitation, which we interpret to represent a more Atlantic climate. Periods with reduced seabird populations correspond with intervals having more negative δD of precipitation and representing a more Arctic climate. Together, the nitrogen and hydrogen isotope records signify regime shifts in the oceanography, marine ecosystem, and atmospheric circulation of the northern North Atlantic that are related to variations in the strength of the subpolar gyre.

Spatial-temporal variability of precipitation in Mountainous Regions in the Southern Appalachians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Barros, A. P.

2009-09-01

The purpose of this work is to investigate the mechanisms of mountainous precipitation and specifically to quantify the influence of the topography on the modification of microphysical and dynamical processes of large weather systems or on the onset of localized convective storms. Three measurement campaigns involving the deployment of one (July-August 2008) or two (October-November 2008, and June-July 2009) Micro Rain Radars (MMR) were conducted in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) in the Southern Appalachians, with the goal to provide microphysical observations. Here we focus on the characterization of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and the yearly repartition of precipitation both from MRR records and from more than 30 rain gauges deployed from mid- to high-elevation along exposed ridges in the vicinity of the MRR deployment sites. A particular attention is paid to the quantification of space-time patterns of orographic enhancements between valley and ridge locations for the MRR deployment sites. The second aspect of this work, concerns a comparison of raingauge and vertically pointing radars (MRR) records with TRMM 2A25 precipitation products. A long term (from 6 months to more than two years and depending on the rain gauge installation) systematic statistical analysis is performed in order to quantify differences between ground based and remotely sensed observations for precipitation events at the time of satellite overpass. The presentation will provide a synthesis of data analysis and sensor intercomparison.

The Best Modern Analog for Eocene Arctic Forests is within Today's Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, B.; Jahren, H.; Eberle, J.; Sternberg, L. O.; Ellsworth, P.; Eberth, D.; Sweet, A.

2011-12-01

In the 25 years that have passed since the first extensive descriptions of the Fossil Forests that persisted above the Arctic Circle during the Eocene (~45-54 Ma), no less than four locations have been suggested as modern analogs. These locations represent a diverse collection of biomes and temperature/precipitation environments, and include the southeastern Unites States and southeastern Asia (based on flora and fauna assemblages), southern Chile and the U.S. Pacific Northwest (based on biomass and productivity estimates), and Pacific Northwestern U.S. and Canada (based on mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation). Here we report on new isotope datasets that allow for a prediction of best modern analog based on a quantitative characterization of paleoseasonality. First, we report high-resolution carbon isotope data from fossil tree rings that record the ratio of summer to winter precipitation. Second, we report analyses of the oxygen isotope composition of phenylglucosazone, a compound isolated from fossil cellulose that straightforwardly records the oxygen isotope composition of meteoric water available to the tree. Together, our analyses indicate that the fossil forests of the Eocene Arctic thrived under a summer-dominated, high-intensity, seasonal precipitation regime, with at least 279 mm of rainfall during the wettest month. A quantitative comparison of mean-annual temperature and precipitation, fossil and modern plant communities, and the seasonality indices, highlights the Korean peninsula as the most appropriate modern analog for the Arctic Eocene forests, in preference to the North and South American analogs previously proposed.

Precipitation Estimation from the ARM Distributed Radar Network During the MC3E Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theisen, A. K.; Giangrande, S. E.; Collis, S. M.

2012-12-01

The DOE - NASA Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) was the first demonstration of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility scanning precipitation radar platforms. A goal for the MC3E field campaign over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility was to demonstrate the capabilities of ARM polarimetric radar systems for providing unique insights into deep convective storm evolution and microphysics. One practical application of interest for climate studies and the forcing of cloud resolving models is improved Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) from ARM radar systems positioned at SGP. This study presents the results of ARM radar-based precipitation estimates during the 2-month MC3E campaign. Emphasis is on the usefulness of polarimetric C-band radar observations (CSAPR) for rainfall estimation to distances within 100 km of the Oklahoma SGP facility. Collocated ground disdrometer resources, precipitation profiling radars and nearby surface Oklahoma Mesonet gauge records are consulted to evaluate potential ARM radar-based rainfall products and optimal methods. Rainfall products are also evaluated against the regional NEXRAD-standard observations.

An evaluation of procedures to estimate monthly precipitation probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legates, David R.

1991-01-01

Many frequency distributions have been used to evaluate monthly precipitation probabilities. Eight of these distributions (including Pearson type III, extreme value, and transform normal probability density functions) are comparatively examined to determine their ability to represent accurately variations in monthly precipitation totals for global hydroclimatological analyses. Results indicate that a modified version of the Box-Cox transform-normal distribution more adequately describes the 'true' precipitation distribution than does any of the other methods. This assessment was made using a cross-validation procedure for a global network of 253 stations for which at least 100 years of monthly precipitation totals were available.

Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tijdeman, Erik; Hannaford, Jamie; Stahl, Kerstin

2018-02-01

Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff) of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA). A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1) the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils), (2) the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3) the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions and a decrease in streamflow drought occurrence for some of the catchments with either reservoirs or groundwater abstractions. In conclusion, the proposed screening approaches were sometimes successful in identifying streamflow records with deviating drought characteristics that are likely related to different human influences. However, a quantitative attribution of the impact of human influences on streamflow drought characteristics requires more detailed case-by-case information about the type and degree of all different human influences. Given that, in many countries, such information is often not readily accessible, the approaches adopted here could provide useful in targeting future efforts. In England and Wales specifically, the catchments with deviating streamflow drought characteristics identified in this study could serve as the starting point of detailed case study research.

A 242-year seasonal-resolved speleothem record from Hainan Island: A window into variability of the precipitation δ18O in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Y.; An, Z.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Fung, I. Y.; Zhang, H.; Tan, L.; Bi, H.

2016-12-01

Hainan Island is located at the gateway of East Asian summer monsoon to the continent. The typical tropical monsoon climate at Hainan island is characterized by wet season during the summer and autumn and dry season during the winter and spring. Here, we present a seasonal resolved speleothem record spanning 242 years ( 50-292 AD) from Xianren Cave (E109°25`, N18°34`), which is situated in the Baoting County, Hainan Province. The monitoring inside the cave shows that the relative humidity kept saturated during the observed periods (one and half years) while the temperature varied seasonally following the temperature changes outside the cave, but with much smaller amplitude. Monthly observation of drip water inside the cave indicates that the isotope composition of drip water mainly responds to the changes in the precipitation isotope composition with less than two months' resident time. The visible annual lamination and distinct fluctuations of calcite Mg, Sr and Ba concentrations corroborate that the high-frequency oscillations of calcite δ18O largely capture the seasonal variation of the isotope composition of precipitation, although the temperature effect cannot be excluded. By setting the heaviest value of annual variation of calcite δ18O as the beginning of each annual cycle, we transferred the δ18O record of 11.2 cm in depth to a δ18O record of 242-year in age. The δ18O record of stalagmite XR-3 demonstrate clearly the annual, decadal and multi-decadal variations of amplitude from 2 to 4‰, in addition to the seasonal oscillation of amplitude varied from 1.5 to 2.5‰. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition results show that the dominant variability (54.6% of the total variance) is captured by the components at the timescale of 3-7 year, while the components on timescales of 22-24 -year, 80-year and 120-year capture 35.0%, 7.0% and 3.4% of the variance, respectively. We contribute the variability of speleothem δ18O at the timescale of 3-7 -year to the influence of ENSO activity, and other variabilities at timescales of 22-24, 80 and 120 years to changes in solar outputs. The prominent control of ENSO activity on the speleothem δ18O variance suggest that tropical Pacific sea surface temperature play an important role in driving the variations of the precipitation δ18O in East Asia.

Quantile regression and clustering analysis of standardized precipitation index in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Yongyong; Han, Jian; Wu, Xia

2017-11-01

Because drought is a very common and widespread natural disaster, it has attracted a great deal of academic interest. Based on 12-month time scale standardized precipitation indices (SPI12) calculated from precipitation data recorded between 1960 and 2015 at 22 weather stations in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), this study aims to identify the trends of SPI and drought duration, severity, and frequency at various quantiles and to perform cluster analysis of drought events in the TRB. The results indicated that (1) both precipitation and temperature at most stations in the TRB exhibited significant positive trends during 1960-2015; (2) multiple scales of SPIs changed significantly around 1986; (3) based on quantile regression analysis of temporal drought changes, the positive SPI slopes indicated less severe and less frequent droughts at lower quantiles, but clear variation was detected in the drought frequency; and (4) significantly different trends were found in drought frequency probably between severe droughts and drought frequency.

Sources of glacial moisture in Mesoamerica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradbury, J.P.

1997-01-01

Paleoclimatic records from Mesoamerica document the interplay between Atlantic and Pacific sources of precipitation during the last glacial stage and Holocene. Today, and throughout much of the Holocene, the entire region receives its principal moisture in the summer from an interaction of easterly trade winds with the equatorial calms. Glacial records from sites east of 95?? W in Guatemala, Florida, northern Venezuela and Colombia record dry conditions before 12 ka, however. West of 95?? W, glacial conditions were moister than in the Holocene. For example, pollen and diatom data show that Lake Pa??tzcuaro in the central Mexican highlands was cool, deep and fresh during this time and fossil pinyon needles in packrat middens in Chihuahua, Sonora, Arizona, and Texas indicate cooler glacial climates with increased winter precipitation. Cold Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperatures and reduced strength of the equatorial calms can explain arid full and late glacial environments east of 95?? W whereas an intensified pattern of winter, westerly air flow dominated hydrologic balances as far south as 20?? N. Overall cooler temperatures may have increased effective moisture levels during dry summer months in both areas. ?? 1997 INQUA/ Elsevier Science Ltd.

Assessment of Areal Recharge to the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer, Spokane County, Washington, and Bonner and Kootenai Counties, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartolino, James R.

2007-01-01

A numerical flow model of the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie aquifer currently (2007) being developed requires the input of values for areally-distributed recharge, a parameter that is often the most uncertain component of water budgets and ground-water flow models because it is virtually impossible to measure over large areas. Data from six active weather stations in and near the study area were used in four recharge-calculation techniques or approaches; the Langbein method, in which recharge is estimated on the basis of empirical data from other basins; a method developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in which crop consumptive use and effective precipitation are first calculated and then subtracted from actual precipitation to yield an estimate of recharge; an approach developed as part of the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Model (ESPAM) Enhancement Project in which recharge is calculated on the basis of precipitation-recharge relations from other basins; and an approach in which reference evapotranspiration is calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation, crop consumptive use is determined (using a single or dual coefficient approach), and recharge is calculated. Annual recharge calculated by the Langbein method for the six weather stations was 4 percent of annual mean precipitation, yielding the lowest values of the methods discussed in this report, however, the Langbein method can be only applied to annual time periods. Mean monthly recharge calculated by the USDA method ranged from 53 to 73 percent of mean monthly precipitation. Mean annual recharge ranged from 64 to 69 percent of mean annual precipitation. Separate mean monthly recharge calculations were made with the ESPAM method using initial input parameters to represent thin-soil, thick-soil, and lava-rock conditions. The lava-rock parameters yielded the highest recharge values and the thick-soil parameters the lowest. For thin-soil parameters, calculated monthly recharge ranged from 10 to 29 percent of mean monthly precipitation and annual recharge ranged from 16 to 23 percent of mean annual precipitation. For thick-soil parameters, calculated monthly recharge ranged from 1 to 5 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge ranged from 2 to 4 percent of mean annual precipitation. For lava-rock parameters, calculated mean monthly recharge ranged from 37 to 57 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge ranged from 45 to 52 percent of mean annual precipitation. Single-coefficient (crop coefficient) FAO Penman-Monteith mean monthly recharge values were calculated for Spokane Weather Service Office (WSO) Airport, the only station for which the necessary meteorological data were available. Grass-referenced values of mean monthly recharge ranged from 0 to 81 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge was 21 percent of mean annual precipitation; alfalfa-referenced values of mean monthly recharge ranged from 0 to 85 percent of mean monthly precipitation and mean annual recharge was 24 percent of mean annual precipitation. Single-coefficient FAO Penman-Monteith calculations yielded a mean monthly recharge of zero during the eight warmest and driest months of the year (March-October). In order to refine the mean monthly recharge estimates, dual-coefficient (basal crop and soil evaporation coefficients) FAO Penman-Monteith dual-crop evapotranspiration and deep-percolation calculations were applied to daily values from the Spokane WSO Airport for January 1990 through December 2005. The resultant monthly totals display a temporal variability that is absent from the mean monthly values and demonstrate that the daily amount and timing of precipitation dramatically affect calculated recharge. The dual-coefficient FAO Penman-Monteith calculations were made for the remaining five stations using wind-speed values for Spokane WSO Airport and other assumptions regarding

Historical groundwater trends in northern New England and relations with streamflow and climatic variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2013-01-01

Water-level trends spanning 20, 30, 40, and 50 years were tested using month-end groundwater levels in 26, 12, 10, and 3 wells in northern New England (Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont), respectively. Groundwater levels for 77 wells were used in interannual correlations with meteorological and hydrologic variables related to groundwater. Trends in the contemporary groundwater record (20 and 30 years) indicate increases (rises) or no substantial change in groundwater levels in all months for most wells throughout northern New England. The highest percentage of increasing 20-year trends was in February through March, May through August, and October through November. Forty-year trend results were mixed, whereas 50-year trends indicated increasing groundwater levels. Whereas most monthly groundwater levels correlate strongly with the previous month's level, monthly levels also correlate strongly with monthly streamflows in the same month; correlations of levels with monthly precipitation are less frequent and weaker than those with streamflow. Groundwater levels in May through August correlate strongly with annual (water year) streamflow. Correlations of groundwater levels with streamflow data and the relative richness of 50- to 100-year historical streamflow data suggest useful proxies for quantifying historical groundwater levels in light of the relatively short and fragmented groundwater data records presently available.

Spatiotemporal analysis the precipitation extremes affecting rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jin; Islam, A. R. M. Towfiqul; Zhang, Fangmin; Hu, Zhenghua

2017-10-01

With the increasing risk of meteorological disasters, it is of great importance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes and its possible impact on rice productivity, especially in Jiangsu province, southeast China. In this study, we explored the relationships between rice yield and extreme precipitation indices using Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt's test, and K-means clustering methods. This study used 10 extreme precipitation indices of the rice growing season (May to October) based on the daily precipitation records and rice yield data at 52 meteorological stations during 1961-2012 in Jiangsu province. The main findings were as follows: (1) correlation results indicated that precipitation extremes occurred in the months of July, August, and October, which had noticeable adverse effects on rice yield; (2) the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August and October should be considered as three key indicators for the precipitation-induced rice meteorological disasters; and (3) most of the stations showed an increasing trends for the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August, while the number of rainy days of October in all the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend. Moreover, Jiangsu province could be divided into two major sub-regions such as north and south areas with different temporal variations in the three key indicators.

Aspects of quality insurance in digitizing historical climate data in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mächel, H.; Behrends, J.; Kapala, A.

2010-09-01

This contribution presents some of the problems and offers solutions regarding the digitization of historical meteorological data, and explains the need for verification and quality control. For the assessment of changes in climate extremes, long-term and complete observational records with a high temporal resolution are needed. However, in most countries, including Germany, such climate data are rare. Therefore, in 2005, the German Weather Service launched a project to inventory and digitize historical daily climatic records in cooperation with the Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn. Experience with Optical Character Recognition (OCR) show that it is only of very limited use, as even printed tables (e.g. yearbooks) are not sufficiently recognized (10-20% error). In hand-written records, the recognition rate is about 50%. By comparing daily and monthly values, it is possible to auto-detect errors, but they can not be automatically corrected, since there is often more than one error per month. These erroneous data must then be controlled manually on an individual basis, which is significantly more error-prone than direct manual input. Therefore, both precipitation and climate station data are digitized manually. The time required to digitize one year of precipitation data (including the recording of daily precipitation amount and type, snow amount and type, and weather events such as thunder storms, fog, etc.) is equivalent to about five hours for one year of data. This involves manually typing, reformatting and quality control of the digitized data, as well as creating a digital photograph. For climate stations with three observations per day, the working time is 30-50 hours for one year of data, depending on the number of parameters and the condition of the documents. Several other problems occur when creating the digital records from historical observational data, some of which are listed below. Older records often used varying units and different conventions. For example, a value of 100 was added to the observed temperatures to avoid negative values. Furthermore, because standardization of the observations was very low when measurements began up to 200 years ago, the data often reflect a greater part of non-climatic influences. Varying daily observation times make it difficult to calculate a representative daily value. Even unconventional completed tables cost labor and requires experienced and trained staff. Data homogenization as well as both manual and automatic quality control may address some of these problems.

On the importance of appropriate precipitation gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stisen, S.; Højberg, A. L.; Troldborg, L.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Christensen, B. S. B.; Olsen, M.; Henriksen, H. J.

2012-11-01

Precipitation gauge catch correction is often given very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to model parameter calibration. This is critical because significant precipitation biases often make the calibration exercise pointless, especially when supposedly physically-based models are in play. This study addresses the general importance of appropriate precipitation catch correction through a detailed modelling exercise. An existing precipitation gauge catch correction method addressing solid and liquid precipitation is applied, both as national mean monthly correction factors based on a historic 30 yr record and as gridded daily correction factors based on local daily observations of wind speed and temperature. The two methods, named the historic mean monthly (HMM) and the time-space variable (TSV) correction, resulted in different winter precipitation rates for the period 1990-2010. The resulting precipitation datasets were evaluated through the comprehensive Danish National Water Resources model (DK-Model), revealing major differences in both model performance and optimised model parameter sets. Simulated stream discharge is improved significantly when introducing the TSV correction, whereas the simulated hydraulic heads and multi-annual water balances performed similarly due to recalibration adjusting model parameters to compensate for input biases. The resulting optimised model parameters are much more physically plausible for the model based on the TSV correction of precipitation. A proxy-basin test where calibrated DK-Model parameters were transferred to another region without site specific calibration showed better performance for parameter values based on the TSV correction. Similarly, the performances of the TSV correction method were superior when considering two single years with a much dryer and a much wetter winter, respectively, as compared to the winters in the calibration period (differential split-sample tests). We conclude that TSV precipitation correction should be carried out for studies requiring a sound dynamic description of hydrological processes, and it is of particular importance when using hydrological models to make predictions for future climates when the snow/rain composition will differ from the past climate. This conclusion is expected to be applicable for mid to high latitudes, especially in coastal climates where winter precipitation types (solid/liquid) fluctuate significantly, causing climatological mean correction factors to be inadequate.

High-resolution precipitation database for the last two centuries in Italy: climatologies and anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crespi, Alice; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio

2017-04-01

The availability of gridded high-resolution spatial climatologies and corresponding secular records has acquired an increasing importance in the recent years both to research purposes and as decision-support tools in the management of natural resources and economical activities. High-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for Italy were computed by gridding on a 30-arc-second-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) the precipitation normals (1961-1990) obtained from a quality-controlled dataset of about 6200 stations covering the Italian surface and part of the Northern neighbouring regions. Starting from the assumption that the precipitation distribution is strongly influenced by orography, especially elevation, a local weighted linear regression (LWLR) of precipitation versus elevation was performed at each DEM cell. The regression coefficients for each cell were estimated by selecting the stations with the highest weights in which the distances and the level of similarity between the station cells and the considered grid cell, in terms of orographic features, are taken into account. An optimisation procedure was then set up in order to define, for each month and for each grid cell, the most suitable decreasing coefficients for the weighting factors which enter in the LWLR scheme. The model was validated by the comparison with the results provided by inverse distance weighting (IDW) applied both to station normals and to the residuals of a global regression of station normals versus elevation. In both cases, the LWLR leave-one-out reconstructions show the best agreement with the observed station normals, especially when considering specific station clusters (high elevation sites for example). After producing the high-resolution precipitation climatological field, the temporal component on the high-resolution grid was obtained by following the anomaly method. It is based on the assumption that the spatio-temporal structure of the signal of a meteorological variable over a certain area can be described by the superimposition of two independent fields: the climatologies and the anomalies, i.e. the departures from the normal values. The secular precipitation anomaly records were thus estimated for each cell of the grid by averaging the anomaly values of neighbouring stations, by means of Gaussian weighting functions, taking into account both the distance and the elevation differences between the stations and the considered grid cell. The local secular precipitation records were then obtained by multiplying the local estimated anomalies for the corresponding 1961-1990 normals. To compute the anomaly field, a different dataset was used by selecting the stations with the longest series and extending them both to the past, retrieving data from non-digitised archives, and to the more recent decades. In particular, after a careful procedure of updating, quality-check and homogenisation of series, this methodology was applied on two Italian areas characterised by very different orography: Sardinia region and the Alpine areas within Adda basin.

Do oxygen stable isotopes track precipitation moisture source in vascular plant dominated peatlands?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charman, D.; Amesbury, M. J.; Newnham, R.; Loader, N.; Goodrich, J. P.; Gallego-Sala, A. V.; Royles, J.; Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.

2014-12-01

Variations in the isotopic composition of precipitation are determined by fractionation processes which occur during temperature and humidity dependent phase changes associated with evaporation and condensation. Oxygen stable isotope ratios have therefore been frequently used as a source of palaeoclimate data from a variety of proxy archives. Exploitation of this record from ombrotrophic peatlands, where the source water used in cellulose synthesis is derived solely from precipitation, has been mostly limited to Northern Hemisphere Sphagnum-dominated bogs, with limited application in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) or in peatlands dominated by vascular plants. Throughout New Zealand (NZ), the preserved root matrix of the restionaceous wire rush (Empodisma spp.) forms deep peat deposits. NZ provides an ideal location to undertake empirical research into oxygen isotope fractionation in vascular peatlands because sites are ideally suited to single taxon analysis, preserve potentially high resolution full Holocene palaeoclimate records and are situated in the climatically sensitive SH mid-latitudes. Crucially, large gradients exist in the mean isotopic composition of precipitation across NZ, caused primarily by the relative influence of different climate modes. We test the capacity for δ18O analysis of Empodisma alpha cellulose from ombrotrophic restiad peatlands in NZ to provide a methodology for developing palaeoclimate records. We took surface plant, water and precipitation samples over spatial (six sites spanning >10° latitude) and temporal (monthly measurements over one year) gradients. We found a strong link between the isotopic compositions of surface root water, the most likely source water for plant growth, and precipitation in both datasets. Back-trajectory modelling of precipitation moisture source for rain days prior to sampling showed clear seasonality in the temporal data that was reflected in surface root water. The link between source water and plant cellulose was less clear, although mechanistic modelling predicted mean cellulose values within published error margins for both datasets. Improved understanding and modelling of δ18O in restiad peatlands should enable use of this approach as a new source of palaeoclimate data to reconstruct changes in past atmospheric circulation

Rainfall over Friuli-Venezia Giulia: High amounts and strong geographical gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceschia, M.; Micheletti, St.; Carniel, R.

1991-12-01

The precipitation distribution over Friuli-Venezia Giulia — the easternmost region of Northern Italy extending from the Adriatic Sea to the Alps — has been studied. Monthly rainfall data over the region and the bordering areas of Veneto and Slovenia during the period from 1951 to 1986 have been analyzed by standard statistical methods, including cluster analysis. The overall results emphasize a distribution with rainfall increasing from the sea to the prealpine areas. The highest precipitations were recorded over the Musi-Canin range, with average values exceeding 3 200 mm per year. Noteworthy is the unforeseen subdivision of the region by the clustering procedure by means of the Angot index.

Climatology of Station Storm Rainfall in the Continental United States: Parameters of the Bartlett-Lewis and Poisson Rectangular Pulses Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hawk, Kelly Lynn; Eagleson, Peter S.

1992-01-01

The parameters of two stochastic models of point rainfall, the Bartlett-Lewis model and the Poisson rectangular pulses model, are estimated for each month of the year from the historical records of hourly precipitation at more than seventy first-order stations in the continental United States. The parameters are presented both in tabular form and as isopleths on maps. The Poisson rectangular pulses parameters are useful in implementing models of the land surface water balance. The Bartlett-Lewis parameters are useful in disaggregating precipitation to a time period shorter than that of existing observations. Information is also included on a floppy disk.

The impact of moisture sources on the oxygen isotope composition of precipitation at a continental site in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krklec, Kristina; Domínguez-Villar, David; Lojen, Sonja

2018-06-01

The stable isotope composition of precipitation records processes taking place within the hydrological cycle. Potentially, moisture sources are important controls on the stable isotope composition of precipitation, but studies focused on this topic are still scarce. We studied the moisture sources contributing to precipitation at Postojna (Slovenia) from 2009 to 2013. Back trajectory analyses were computed for the days with precipitation at Postojna. The moisture uptake locations were identified along these trajectories using standard hydrometeorological formulation. The moisture uptake locations were integrated in eight source regions to facilitate its comparison to the monthly oxygen isotope composition (δ18O values) of precipitation. Nearly half of the precipitation originated from continental sources (recycled moisture), and >40% was from central and western Mediterranean. Results show that moisture sources do not have a significant impact on the oxygen isotope composition at this site. We suggest that the large proportion of recycled moisture originated from transpiration rather than evaporation, which produced water vapour with less negative δ18O values. Thus the difference between the oceanic and local vapour source was reduced, which prevented the distinction of the moisture sources based on their oxygen isotope signature. Nevertheless, δ18O values of precipitation are partially controlled by climate parameters, which is of major importance for paleoclimate studies. We found that the main climate control on Postojna δ18O values of precipitation is the surface temperature. Amount effect was not recorded at this site, and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not impact the δ18O values of precipitation. The Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) was correlated to oxygen stable isotope composition, although this atmospheric pattern was not a control. Instead we found that the link to δ18O values results from synoptic scenarios affecting WeMO index as well as temperature. Therefore, interpretation of δ18O values of precipitation in terms of climate is limited to surface temperature, although at least half of the variability observed still depends on unknown controls of the hydrological cycle.

Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2006-01-01

Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the historical record is not valid. For multiple-reservoir systems, the firm-yield estimate was dependent on the reservoir system's configuration. The firm yield of a system is sensitive to how the water is transferred from one reservoir to another, the capacity of the connection between the reservoirs, and how seasonal variations in demand are represented in the FYE model. Firm yields for 25 (14 single-reservoir systems and 11 multiple-reservoir systems) reservoir systems were determined by using the historical records of streamflow and precipitation. Current water-use data indicate that, on average, 20 of the 25 reservoir systems in the study were operating below their estimated firm yield; during months with peak demands, withdrawals exceeded the firm yield for 8 reservoir systems.

Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States

Treesearch

Kai Duan; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Peter V. Caldwell; Erika C. Cohen; Shanlei Sun; Heather D. Aldridge; Decheng Zhou; Liangxia Zhang; Yang Zhang

2017-01-01

This study examines the relative roles of cli- matic variables in altering annual runoff in the contermi- nous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century, using a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress In- dex model, WaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from 20 Coupled Model Intercompar- ison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)...

Temporal variations of radon in soil related to earthquakes.

PubMed

Planinić, J; Radolić, V; Lazanin, Z

2001-08-01

A radon detector with LR-115 nuclear track film was constructed for radon concentration measurements in soil. Temporal radon variations, as well as the barometric pressure, precipitation and temperature were measured for two years. Negative correlation between radon concentration in soil and barometric pressure was found. For some of the recorded earthquakes that occurred during the observation period, soil radon anomalies may be noticed one month before the quakes.

Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer: An ARM Mobile Facility Deployment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Robert; Wyant, Matthew; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Remillard, Jasmine; Kollias, Pavlos; Fletcher, Jennifer; Stemmler, Jayson; de Szoeke, Simone; Yuter, Sandra; Miller, Matthew;

TRMM-3B43 Bias Correction over the High Elevations of the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashemi, H.; Nordin, K. M.; Lakshmi, V.; Knight, R. J.

2016-12-01

Precipitation can be quantified using a rain gauge network, or a remotely sensed precipitation product. Ultimately, the choice of dataset depends on the particular application, the catchment size, climate and the time period of study. In a region with a long record and a dense rain gauge network, the elevation-modified ground-based precipitation product, PRISM, has been found to work well. However, in poorly gauged regions the use of remotely sensed precipitation products is an absolute necessity. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has provided valuable precipitation datasets for hydrometeorological studies over the past two decades (1998-2015). One concern regarding the usage of TRMM data is the accuracy of the precipitation estimates, when compared to those obtained using PRISM. The reason for this concern is that TRMM and PRISM do not always agree and, typically, TRMM underestimates PRISM over the mountainous regions of the United States. In this study, we develop a correction function to improve the accuracy of the TRMM monthly product (TRMM-3B43) by estimating and removing the bias in the satellite data using the ground-based precipitation product, PRISM. We observe a strong relationship between the bias and land surface elevation; TRMM-3B43 tends to underestimate the PRISM product at altitudes greater than 1500 m above mean sea level (m.amsl) in the contiguous United States. A relationship is developed between TRMM-PRISM bias and elevation. The correction function is used to adjust the TRMM monthly precipitation using PRISM and elevation data. The model is calibrated using 25% of the available time period and the remaining 75% of the time period is used for validation. The corrected TRMM-3B43 product is verified for the high elevations over the contiguous United States and two local regions in the mountainous areas of the western United States. The results show a significant improvement in the accuracy of the TRMM product in the high elevations of the contiguous United States.

Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in mainland Portugal and its relationships with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espírito Santo, Fátima; de Lima, Isabel P.; Silva, Álvaro; Pires, Vanda; de Lima, João L. M. P.

2014-05-01

Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and their persistence are known to drive inter-annual variability of precipitation in Europe, although depending on geographical location; this includes precipitation extremes and their trends. The vast range of time and space scales involved leads sometimes to precipitation deficits and surpluses which might affect in a different way the society, the environment and the economy at the local and regional scales, depending on specific conditions. In addition, changes in the climate are expected to affect the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events that might influence significantly the distribution, availability and sustainability of regional water resources. The location of mainland Portugal on the Northeast Atlantic region, in South-western Europe, together with other geographical features, makes this territory vulnerable to extreme dry/wet hydro-meteorological events, driven by the strong variability in precipitation. In our study we discuss, for this territory, the relation between the spatio-temporal variability in those events, including their persistence at different scales, and the variability in several modes of low frequency variability; special attention is dedicated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian pattern (SCAND). Some of these dry/wet episodes affect different aspects of the hydrologic cycle and are likely to lead to drought and soil wetness/saturation conditions that can enhance flood events. Such episodes were categorized here using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which was calculated at short (3 and 6-month) and long (12 and 24-month) time scales from monthly precipitation data recorded in the 1941-2012 period (72 years) at 50 precipitation stations scattered across the study area. Moreover, because SPI is a normalized index, it is also suitable to provide spatial representations of these conditions, allowing the comparison between areas within the same region. Thus, indices were interpolated for the whole territory using deterministic and geostatistical methods, and the zonal statistics results were mapped; the spatial interpolation, analysis and mapping were implemented in ArcGIS. Results confirm that the precipitation in this region is strongly influenced by the NAO and SCAND, in particular in the wettest months. Moreover, the annual SPI shows a significant increase in the extent of dry extremes and a non-significant decrease in the extent of wet extremes. For shorter time scales, the behaviour depends on the season. We discuss the observed SPI trends and the uncertainties for the precipitation regime in the southern and western parts of the Iberian Peninsula, which includes mainland Portugal. Results underline potential applications of SPI for water resources management, which is discussed in the context of the regional hydrological conditions and increasing demand for water for different uses.

High resolution reconstruction of monthly autumn and winter precipitation of Iberian Peninsula for last 150 years.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortesi, N.; Trigo, R.; González-Hidalgo, J. C.; Ramos, A.

2012-04-01

Precipitation over Iberian Peninsula (IP) presents large values of interannual variability and large spatial contrasts between wet mountainous regions in the north and dry regions in the southern plains. Unlike other European regions, IP was poorly monitored for precipitation during 19th century. Here we present a new approach to fill this gap. A set of 26 atmospheric circulation weather types (Trigo R.M. and DaCamara C.C., 2000) derived from a recent SLP dataset, the EMULATE (European and North Atlantic daily to multidecadal climate variability) Project, was used to reconstruct Iberian monthly precipitation from October to March during 1851-1947. Principal Component Regression Analysis was chosen to develop monthly precipitation reconstruction back to 1851 and calibrated over 1948-2003 period for 3030 monthly precipitation series of high-density homogenized MOPREDAS (Monthly Precipitation Database for Spain and Portugal) database. Validation was conducted over 1920-1947 at 15 key site locations. Results show high model performance for selected months, with a mean coefficient of variation (CV) around 0.6 during validation period. Lower CV values were achieved in western area of IP. Trigo, R. M., and DaCamara, C.C., 2000: "Circulation weather types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Regime shifts in the Arctic North Atlantic during the Neoglacial revealed by seabirds and precipitation isotopes on Bjørnøya, Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, William J.; Hormes, Anne; Bakke, Jostein; Nicolaisen, Line

2016-04-01

The northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, and the Norwegian and Greenland Seas are subject to large hydrographic changes. These variations can influence oceanic heat transport to the Arctic, meridional overturning circulation, and atmospheric circulation patterns and thereby impact global climate patterns. Marine records suggest that numerous large-scale changes in the hydrography of the northern North Atlantic took place during the middle to late Holocene. We report a record of nitrogen and hydrogen isotope measurements from a lake sediment core from Bjørnøya, Svalbard (74.38°N, 19.02°E) that documents major regime shifts in the climate of the northern North Atlantic during the past 6,000 years. Bjørnøya is the nesting ground for one of the largest seabird populations in the North Atlantic. As top predators in the marine ecosystem, seabirds (and their guano) are enriched in 15N; during spring and summer months they deliver isotopically enriched nitrogen to nesting areas. We developed a record of seabird population changes on Bjørnøya based on the nitrogen isotope composition of sediments in a core collected from lake Ellasjøen. The record reveals multiple multicentennial scale changes in δ15N values (varying between ~8-12‰) that track past changes in the size of seabird populations. From the same sediment core, we also developed a record of δD of precipitation, using δD values of sedimentary n-alkanes. Past intervals with the largest inferred bird populations correspond with the most enriched δD of precipitation, which we interpret to represent a more Atlantic climate. Periods with reduced seabird populations correspond with intervals with more negative δD of precipitation and representing a more Arctic climate. Together, the nitrogen and hydrogen isotope records signify regime shifts in the oceanography, marine ecosystem, and atmospheric circulation of the northern North Atlantic that are related to variations in the strength of the subpolar gyre.

Evaluation of Uncertainty in Precipitation Datasets for New Mexico, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Besha, A. A.; Steele, C. M.; Fernald, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change, population growth and other factors are endangering water availability and sustainability in semiarid/arid areas particularly in the southwestern United States. Wide coverage of spatial and temporal measurements of precipitation are key for regional water budget analysis and hydrological operations which themselves are valuable tool for water resource planning and management. Rain gauge measurements are usually reliable and accurate at a point. They measure rainfall continuously, but spatial sampling is limited. Ground based radar and satellite remotely sensed precipitation have wide spatial and temporal coverage. However, these measurements are indirect and subject to errors because of equipment, meteorological variability, the heterogeneity of the land surface itself and lack of regular recording. This study seeks to understand precipitation uncertainty and in doing so, lessen uncertainty propagation into hydrological applications and operations. We reviewed, compared and evaluated the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation products, NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly precipitation dataset, PRISM (Parameter elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model) data and data from individual climate stations including Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS), Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) and Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations. Though not yet finalized, this study finds that the uncertainty within precipitation estimates datasets is influenced by regional topography, season, climate and precipitation rate. Ongoing work aims to further evaluate precipitation datasets based on the relative influence of these phenomena so that we can identify the optimum datasets for input to statewide water budget analysis.

Monitoring Agricultural Drought Using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing on the Primary Corn and Soybean Belt in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Shomrany, Adel

The study aims to evaluate various remote sensing drought indices to assess those most fitting for monitoring agricultural drought. The objectives are (1) to assess and study the impact of drought effect on (corn and soybean) crop production by crop mapping information and GIS technology; (2) to use Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) as a technical approach to evaluate the spatial relationships between precipitation vs. irrigated and non-irrigated corn and soybean yield, using a Nebraska county-level case study; (3) to assess agricultural drought indices derived from remote sensing (NDVI, NMDI, NDWI, and NDII6); (4) to develop an optimal approach for agricultural drought detection based on remote sensing measurements to determine the relationship between US county-level yields versus relatively common variables collected. Extreme drought creates low corn and soybean production where irrigation systems are not implemented. This results in a lack of moisture in soil leading to dry land and stale crop yields. When precipitation and moisture is found across all states, corn and soybean production flourishes. For Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota, irrigation management methods assist in strong crop yields throughout SPI monthly averages. The data gathered on irrigation consisted of using drought indices gathered by the national agricultural statistics service website. For the SPI levels ranging between one-month and nine-months, Kansas and Nebraska performed the best out of all 12-states contained in the Midwestern primary Corn and Soybean Belt. The reasoning behind Kansas and Nebraska's results was due to a more efficient and sustainable irrigation system, where upon South Dakota lacked. South Dakota was leveled by strong correlations throughout all SPI periods for corn only. Kansas showed its strongest correlations for the two-month and three-month averages, for both corn and soybean. Precipitation regression with irrigated and non-irrigated maize (corn) and soybean levels show yields as a function of precipitation. The GWR models predicted that yields were significantly better than OLS performances for maize (corn) and soybean. The OLS regression model when used showed a general trend of correlation between observed yields and long-term mean precipitation totals, with 84% and 63% of the variability in mean yield explained by the mean annual precipitation for the non-irrigated crops. The GWR technique performance in predicting yields was significantly better than OLS performances. For instance in the months of June, July, and August precipitations had greater impacts on maize (corn) yields than soybeans under non-irrigated conditions as a result of the greater sensitivity maize (corn) had to water stress. SPI is capable of offering various time-scales enabling it to show initial warning signs of drought conditions and accompanying severity levels. SPI calculation techniques used for various locations are reflected upon the precipitation records acquired during those periods. Over the 3, 6, and 9-month periods, NDII6 performed the best out of all of the MODIS indices as shown in its results in monitoring vegetation moisture and drought detection. NDII6 performed the best due to its detection abilities. The 9-month SPI provides an indication of inter-seasonal precipitation patterns over medium timescale duration. A new approach used is to average corn and soybean yields for all counties of the study area in comparison with average anomalies of the MODIS indices for the growing season between May through September from 2006-2012. There was a strong correlation between average corn yields versus MODIS NDII6 averages for these years with R2 equaling 0.62. That means NDII6 is the best indicator to show drought conditions and vegetation moisture monitoring. There was a weak correlation with R2 = 0.16 between averages of soybean yields and averages of precipitation. Irrigation and management systems, technological improvements from hybrids, producer management techniques, and other management practices have an impact on crop yield productions. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range based on the ratio of values on rainy days and days without rain, respectively. For assessing the impact of our correction, we simulated the ecosystem behaviour using the climate data from Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla with the mechanistic ecosystem model Biome-BGC. Differences in terms of the carbon, nitrogen and water cycle were subsequently analysed and discussed.

Ground-water levels in Huron County, Michigan, March 1993 through December 1994

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sweat, M.J.

1995-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey completed a study of the hydrogeology of Huron County, Michigan. In 1993, Huron County and the USGS entered into an agreement to continue collecting water levels at selected wells throughout Huron County. As part of the agreement, the USGS provided training and instrumentation for County personnel to measure, on a quarterly basis, the depth to water below the land surface in selected wells. The program included the operation of continuous water-level recorders installed on four wells, in Bingham, Fairhaven, Grant and Lake townships (figure 1). County personnel make quarterly water-level measurements on 22 other wells (figure 1). Once each year, County personnel are accompanied by USGS personnel who provide a quality assurance/quality control check of all measurements being made.Two of the wells with recorders are completed in the Marshall aquifer (H5r and H25Ar), one is completed in the glacio-fluvial aquifer (H2r), and one is completed in the Saginaw aquifer (H9r). Hydrographs are presented for each of the four wells with water level recorders (figures 3, 4, 6, and 8). Hydrographs of quarterly water-level measurements and range of water levels during the period October, 1988 to January, 1990 (the original project period) are shown in figures 5, 7, 9, and 10 and quarterly water levels are presented in tables 1 through 4.Figure 2 shows the monthly-mean water-level elevation of Lake Huron, as measured at Harbor Beach and Essexville, and monthly-mean precipitation as recorded at Bad Axe, for the period October, 1988 through December, 1994. In general, Lake Huron water-level elevation were at or near record lows in late 1989, and near record highs in late 1993. Precipitation throughout the period was generally within the normal range.

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Influence of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its collapse on the wind and precipitation regimes of the Ross Embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seles, D.; Kowalewski, D. E.

2015-12-01

Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is a key analogue for current warming trends yet the extent of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) during this interglacial remains unresolved. Inconsistencies persist between offshore records (suggesting the instability of WAIS) and McMurdo Dry Valley (MDV) terrestrial datasets (indicating long-term ice sheet stability). Here we use a high-resolution regional scale climate model (RegCM3_Polar) to reconstruct paleoclimate during MIS 31 (warm orbit, 400 ppm CO2) and assess changes in precipitation and winds (including katabatic) with WAIS present versus WAIS absent. The MIS 31 scenario with WAIS present resulted in minimal changes in wind magnitude compared with current climate conditions. With WAIS absent, the model predicts a decrease in coastal and highland monthly mean average wind velocities. The greatest rates of snowfall remain along the coast but shift towards higher latitudes with the interior continent remaining dry when WAIS is removed. Focusing on the Ross Embayment, this decreased monthly mean wind velocity and shift of winds to the east indicate a greater influence of offshore winds from the Ross Sea, enabling the increase of precipitation southward along the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) (i.e. MDV). The apparent decrease of katabatic winds with no WAIS implies that offshore winds may be responsible for bringing the warmer, wetter air into the TAM. The change in wind and precipitation in the Ross Embayment and specifically the MDV highlights the impact of WAIS on Antarctic climate and its subsequent influence on the mass balance of peripheral EAIS domes (i.e. Taylor Dome). Modeling suggests that if WAIS was absent during MIS 31, we would expect (1) greater accumulation at such domes and (2) MDV terrestrial records that reflect a wetter climate, and (3) weaker winds suggesting possibly lower ablation/erosion rates compared to if WAIS was present.

The forcing of monthly precipitation variability over Southwest Asia during the Boreal cold season

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Barlow, Mathew; Cannon, Forest; Kelley, Colin; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Southwest Asia, deemed as the region containing the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan, is water scarce and receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during8 the boreal cold season of November-April. The forcing of Southwest Asia precipitation has been previously examined for the entire boreal cold season from the perspective of climate variability originating over the Atlantic and tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans. Here, we examine the inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability over Southwest Asia and the atmospheric conditions directly responsible in forcing monthly November-April precipitation. Seasonally averaged November-April precipitation over Southwest Asia is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) patterns consistent with Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the warming trend of SST (Trend). On the contrary, the precipitation variability during individual months of November-April are unrelated and are correlated with SST signatures that include PDV, ENSO and Trend in different combinations. Despite strong inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability during November- April over Southwest Asia, similar atmospheric circulations, highlighted by a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave centered over Iraq, force the monthly spatial distributions of precipitation. Tropospheric waves on the eastern side of the equivalent barotropic Rossby wave modifies the flux of moisture and advects the mean temperature gradient, resulting in temperature advection that is balanced by vertical motions over Southwest Asia. The forcing of monthly Southwest Asia precipitation by equivalent barotropic Rossby waves is different than the forcing by baroclinic Rossby waves associated with tropically-forced-only modes of climate variability.

Climate Prediction Center - Site Index

Science.gov Websites

States Temperature & Precipitation Percentiles/Rankings 12-Month Sea Surface Temperature (SST ) Consolidation Outlook 13-Month Seasonal Outlook for Hawaii 30-Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlook 30-Day Total Observed Precipitation 6-10 Day Outlooks (2-panel) 6-10 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Exploring the Appropriate Drought Index in a Humid Tropical Area with Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. H.; Chen, W. T.; Lo, M. H.; Chu, J. L.; Chen, Y. J.; Chen, Y. M.

2017-12-01

The goal of the present study is to identify the most appropriate index to monitor droughts in Taiwan, an extremely humid region with steep terrain. Three drought indices were calculated using in situ high resolution rainfall observations and compared: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). In Taiwan, the average amount of precipitation is around 2500 mm per year, which is six times of the global average. However, with the complexity of topography and the uneven distribution throughout the year in Taiwan, abundant rainfall during the wet season is mostly lost as runoff. Severe droughts occur frequently at approximately once per decade, while moderate droughts occur every 2 years. Earlier studies indicated that the SPI is limited in describing drought events because the temperature effect is not taken into account in SPI as in the sc-PDSI. In addition, SPEI, which take the Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotranspiration (PET_pm) into account, is also considered in the present study. The atmospheric water demand increases as temperature increasing, which is reflected in PET_pm. To calculate the three drought indices, we will use the monthly average temperature to calculate the PET_pm and monthly accumulated precipitation from automatic weather stations from the Central Weather Bureau. All of the detected droughts are evaluated against the dataset of historical drought records in Taiwan. We explore whether the temperature is an important factor for the occurrence of droughts in Taiwan first. In addition to severe droughts, we expect that SPEI and sc-PDSI can detect more moderate droughts in Taiwan. Second, we survey the performance of three drought indices for the detection of droughts in Taiwan. Because the soil water model used in sc-PDSI doesn't consider the effect of steep terrain, and because SPI only considers the monthly precipitation, we expect SPEI to be the more appropriate index for monitoring drought events in Taiwan.

Precipitation Depth-Duration-Frequency Analysis for the Nevada National Security Site and Surrounding Areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Li; Miller, Julianne J.

Accurate precipitation frequency data are important for Environmental Management Soils Activities on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). These data are important for environmental assessments performed for regulatory closure of Soils Corrective Action Unit (CAU) Sites, as well as engineering mitigation designs and post-closure monitoring strategies to assess and minimize potential contaminant migration from Soils CAU Sites. Although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 (Bonnin et al., 2011) provides precipitation frequency data for the NNSS area, the NNSS-specific observed precipitation data were not consistent with the NOAA Atlas 14 predicted data. This is primarily due to themore » NOAA Atlas 14 products being produced from analyses without including the approximately 30 NNSS precipitation gage records, several of which approach or exceed 50 year of record. Therefore, a study of precipitation frequency that incorporated the NNSS precipitation gage records into the NOAA Atlas 14 dataset, was performed specifically for the NNSS to derive more accurate site-specific precipitation data products. Precipitation frequency information, such as the depth-duration-frequency (DDF) relationships, are required to generate synthetic standard design storm hydrographs and assess actual precipitation events. In this study, the actual long-term NNSS precipitation gage records, some of which are the longest gage records in southern and central Nevada, were analyzed to allow for more accurate precipitation DDF estimates to be developed for the NNSS. Gridded maps of precipitation frequency for the NNSS and surrounding areas were then produced.« less

Evaluation and prediction of anomalous El Niño generated rainfalls in Peruvian and Ecuadorian coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadier, E.; Rossel, F.; Pouyaud, B.; Raymond, M.

2003-04-01

Coastal regions of Southern Ecuador and Northern Peru rainfalls are well known for their sensitivity to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. New monthly rainfall index series were set up from a network of 200 rainfall stations in the Ecuadorian and Peruvian coastal region. Throughout the study, rainfall was modelled keeping a distinction between a "dependent" data set used as a training period and an "independent" portion of the record reserved for validation. Multiple regression models were proposed to predict monthly rainfall in the Guayaquil and in northern coastal Peru, using as predictors, sea surface temperature, precipitation, meridional and zonal wind in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Then, the resulting equations were used to predict rainfall anomalies in the independent data set. In the Guayaquil zone, there is considerable predictable expertise for the rainy months of the year, the best predictability being assessed from March to May. The multiple linear correlations explain 60 to 82% of the monthly-precipitation variance. Northern coastal Ecuadorian region's preseason rainfall is the most powerful predictor for the rainy season peak in Guayaquil, while the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature is the most powerful predictor for the end of rainy season. KEY WORDS: El Niño, Rainfall Prediction, Ecuador.

Iowa's oldest oaks. [Quercus alba

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duvick, D.N.; Blasing, T.J.

1983-01-01

Tree-ring analysis revealed 33 living white oaks (Quercus alba) in Iowa that began growing before 1700. Core of wood 4 mm in diameter, each extracted from a radius of a tree trunk were analyzed. The oldest white oak, found in northeastern Warren County, began growing about 1570 and is thus over 410 years old. A chinkapin oak (Quercus muehlenbergii) was also found which was more than 300 years old. Ring widths from the white oaks are well correlated with total precipitation for the twelve months preceding completion of ring formation in July. Reconstructions of annual (August-July) precipitation for 1680-1979, basedmore » on the tree rings, indicate that the driest annual period in Iowa was August 1799-July 1800, and that the driest decade began about 1816. Climatic information of this kind, pre-dating written weather records, can be used to augment those records and provide a longer baseline of information for use by climatologists and hydrologic planners.« less

Observed evolution of drought episodes assessed with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potop, V.; Boroneana, C.; Mozny, M.; Stepanek, P.; Skalak, P.

2012-04-01

This paper investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of drought episodes assessed with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over the Czech Republic. The SPEI were calculated from monthly records of mean temperature and precipitation totals using a dense network of 183 climatological stations for the period 1961-2010. The SPEI were calculated with various lags, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. The drought at these time scales is relevant for agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic impact, respectively. The study refers at the warm season of the year (April to September). The principal modes of variability of these five time scale SPEI were identified using the analysis of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF). The explained variance of the leading EOF ranges between 71 and 61% as the time scale for calculating the SPEI increases from 1 month to 24 months. The explained variance of EOF2 and EOF3 ranges between 5 to 9% and 4 to 6%, respectively, as the SPEI is calculated for 1 to 24 months. Based on the spatial distribution of the EOF2 and EOF3 for all time scales of SPEI, which correspond to some extend to a regionalization previously used in other studies, we identified three climatically homogeneous regions, corresponding to the altitudes below 400 m, between 401 and 700 m and, above 700 m. These regions correspond to different land use types with mostly intensive agriculture, less intensive agriculture and limited agricultural production and mostly forested, respectively. For these three regions the frequency distribution of the SPEI values in 7 classes of drought category (%) were calculated based on station records in each region. The normal conditions represent around 65% out of the total values of SPEI for all times scales, in all three regions, while moderate drought and moderate wet conditions are almost equally distributed around 10.5 %. Differences in extremely dry conditions (5%) compared to extremely wet conditions (1.5 %) were observed when increasing the SPEI timescales. The drought is classified as local when covers up to 10% of the territory of the Czech Republic, widespread when covers 11-30% of the territory, very widespread when covers 31-50% of the territory and most extended when covers more than 50% of the country territory. We gratefully acknowledge the support of the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports for projects OC10010.

An assessment of the isotopic (2H/18O) integrity of water samples collected and stored by unattended precipitation totalizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terzer, Stefan; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Douence, Cedric; Araguas-Araguas, Luis

2016-04-01

The IAEA-WMO Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) provides worldwide δ18O and δ2H data for numerous hydrological and climatological studies. The traditional GNIP sample collection method relies on weather station operators to accumulate precipitation obtained from manual rain gauges. Over the past decades, widespread weather station automatization resulted in the increased use of unattended precipitation totalizers that accumulate and store the rainwater in the field for up to one month. Several low-tech measures were adopted to prevent in situ secondary evaporative isotopic enrichment (SEE) of totalized water samples (i.e. disequilibrium isotopic fractionation after precipitation is stored in the collection device). These include: (a) adding a 0.5-1 cm floating layer of paraffin oil to the totalizer bottle, (b) using an intake tube leading from the collection funnel and submerged to the bottom of the totalizer bottle, or (c) placing a table tennis ball in the funnel aiming to reduce evaporation of the collected water from the receiving bottle to the atmosphere. We assessed the isotopic integrity of stored rainwater samples for three totalizers under controlled settings: each aforementioned totalizer was filled with a 100 or 500 mL of isotopically known water and installed in the field with the intake funnels sheltered to prevent rainwater collection. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) was obtained from on-site meteorological recordings. Stored evaporative loss from each totalizer was evaluated on a monthly basis; gravimetrically and by analysing δ18O and δ2H of the stored water, for a period of 6 months and a cumulative PET of ˜500 mm. The gravimetric and isotope results revealed that for smaller water volumes (100 ml, corresponding to ca. 5 mm of monthly precipitation), negligible isotope enrichment (δ18O) was observed in the paraffin-oil based totalizer, whereas unacceptable evaporative isotope effects were observed for the ball-in-funnel collector. For the submerged-tube sampler, the evaporative effect depended on the amount of stored water: 100 ml showed unacceptable isotopic enrichment, whereas the SEE of 500 ml stored water was acceptable. These data allowed us to estimate the impact of secondary evaporative enrichment on a device-specific basis as a function of PET. Based on global PET grids (e.g. CGIAR data), and benchmarking the expected SEE against the reasonable uncertainty of isotope spectrometry (< ±0.1‰ for δ18O), these findings reveal the most suitable totalizer device for any given climatic condition. Under extreme conditions (e.g. high aridity, little precipitation vs. high PET), a paraffin-oil based rain totalizer is most appropriate for monthly collections. Submerged-tube samplers may be considered if either a higher frequency of collection were possible, or monthly under pluvial/temperate climate conditions. The use of ball-in-funnel type totalizers are not recommended at all, unless samples could be collected on a daily basis.

Validation of satellite based precipitation over diverse topography of Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product data with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and post-real-time 3 h temporal resolution using point-based Surface Precipitation Gauge (SPG) data from 40 stations, for the period 1998-2013, and using gridded Asian Precipitation ˗ Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) data abbreviated as APH data with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and daily temporal resolution for the period 1998-2007, over vulnerable and data sparse regions of Pakistan (24-37° N and 62-75° E). To evaluate the performance of TMPA relative to SPG and APH, four commonly used statistical indicator metrics including Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Correlation Coefficient (CC) are employed on daily, monthly, seasonal as well as on annual timescales. The TMPA slightly overestimated both SPG and APH at daily, monthly, and annual timescales, however close results were obtained between TMPA and SPG as compared to those between TMPA and APH, on the same timescale. The TMPA overestimated both SPG and APH during the Pre-Monsoon and Monsoon seasons, whereas it underestimated during the Post-Monsoon and Winter seasons, with different magnitudes. Agreement between TMPA and SPG was good in plain and medium elevation regions, whereas TMPA overestimated APH in 31 stations. The magnitudes of MAE and RMSE were high at daily timescale as compared to monthly and annual timescales. Relatively large MAE was observed in stations located over high elevation regions, whereas minor MAE was recorded in plain area stations at daily, monthly, and annual timescales. A strong positive linear relationship between TMPA and SPG was established at monthly (0.98), seasonal (0.93 to 0.98) and annual (0.97) timescales. Precipitation increased with the increase of elevation, and not only elevation but latitude also affected the intensity and amount of precipitation in Pakistan. It is evident that TMPA overestimates SPG in some regions and seasons and underestimates in other regions and seasons. It is thus determined from the current study that TMPA gives better results on annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales as compared to daily timescale. The TMPA might be used in all the four seasons including Winter, Pre-Monsoon, Monsoon, and Post-Monsoon. The TMPA mostly underestimates both SPG and APH in high elevation regions, whereas in plain and medium elevation regions it gives better results. This study concludes that TMPA can be a good substitute of SPG for water resource management in plain and medium elevation regions in central and northern parts of Pakistan, during all four seasons.

Investigating precipitation changes of anthropic origin: data and methodological issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima, Isabel; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

There is much concern about the social, environmental and economic impacts of climate change that could result directly from changes in temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the situation is better understood; but despite the many studies that have been already dedicated to precipitation, change in this process - that could be associated to the transition to the Anthropocene - has not yet been convincingly proven. A large fraction of those studies have been exploring temporal (linear) trends in local precipitation, sometimes using records over only a few decades; other fewer studies have been dedicated to investigating global precipitation change. Overall, precipitation change of anthropic origin has showed to be difficult to establish with high statistical significance and, moreover, different data and products have displayed important discrepancies; this is valid even for global precipitation. We argue that the inadequate resolution and length of the data commonly used, as well as methodological issues, are among the main factors limiting the ability to identify the signature of change in precipitation. We propose several ways in which one can hope to improve the situation - or at least - clarify the difficulties. From the point of view of statistical analysis, the problem is one of detecting a low frequency anthropogenic signal in the presence of "noise" - the natural variability (the latter includes both internal dynamics and responses to volcanic, solar or other natural forcings). A consequence is that as one moves to longer and longer time scales, fluctuations are increasingly averaged and at some point, the anthropogenic signal will stand out above the natural variability noise. This approach can be systematized using scaling fluctuation analysis to characterizing different precipitation scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate - from higher to lower frequencies; in the anthropocene, the macroweather regime covers the range of time scales from about a month to ≈30 years. We illustrate this using local gauge data and three qualitatively different global scale precipitation products (from gauges, reanalyses and a satellite and gauge hybrid) that allow to investigate precipitation from monthly to centennial scales and in space from planetary down to 5°x5° scales. By systematically characterizing precipitation variability across wide ranges of time and space scales, we show that the anthropogenic signal only exceeded the natural variability at time scales larger than ≈20 years, so that the disagreement in the trends can be traced to these low frequencies.

Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Heeswijk, Marijke

2006-01-01

Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F

Patterns of orographic uplift in the Sierra Nevada and their relationship to upper-level atmospheric circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aguado, Edward; Cayan, Daniel R.; Reece, Brian D.; Riddle, Larry

1993-01-01

We examine monthly and seasonal patterns of precipitation across various elevations of the eastern Central Valley of California and the Sierra Nevada. A measure of the strength of the orographic effect called the “precipitation ratio” is calculated, and we separate months into four groups based on being wet or dry and having low or high precipitation ratios. Using monthly maps of mean 700-mb height anomalies, we describe the northern hemisphere mid-tropospheric circulation patterns associated with each of the four groups. Wet months are associated with negative height anomalies over the eastern Pacific, as expected. However, the orientation of the trough is different for years with high and low precipitation ratios. Wet months with high ratios typically have circulation patterns factoring a west-southwest to east-northeast storm track from around the Hawaiian Islands to the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Wet months with low precipitation ratios are associated with a trough centered near the Aleutians and a northwest to southeast storm track. Dry months are marked by anticyclones in the Pacific, but this feature is more localized to the eastern Pacific for months with low precipitation ratios than for those with high ratios. Using precipitation gauge and snow course data from the American River and Truckee-Tahoe basins, we determined that the strength of the orographic effect on a seasonal basis is spatially coherent at low and high elevations and on opposite sides of the Sierra Nevada crestline.

Hydroclimatic conditions preceding the March 2014 Oso landslide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henn, Brian; Cao, Qian; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Mass, Clifford; Bower, J. Brent; St. Laurent, Michael; Mao, Yixin; Perica, Sanja

2015-01-01

The 22 March 2014 Oso landslide was one of the deadliest in U.S. history, resulting in 43 fatalities and the destruction of more than 40 structures. We examine synoptic conditions, precipitation records and soil moisture reconstructions in the days, months, and years preceding the landslide. Atmospheric reanalysis shows a period of enhanced moisture transport to the Pacific Northwest beginning on 11 February 2014. The 21- to 42-day periods prior to the landslide had anomalously high precipitation; we estimate that 300-400 mm of precipitation fell at Oso in the 21 days prior to the landslide. Relative only to historical periods ending on 22 March, the return periods of these precipitation accumulations are large (25-88 years). However, relative to the largest accumulations from any time of the year (annual maxima), return periods are more modest (2-6 years). In addition to the 21-42 days prior to the landslide, there is a secondary maximum in the precipitation return periods for the 4 years preceding the landslide. Reconstructed soil moisture was anomalously high prior to the landslide, with a return period that exceeded 40 years about a week before the event.

Global Precipitation: Means, Variations and Trends During the Satellite Era (1979-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler, Robert F.; Gu, Guojun; Sapiano, Matthew; Wang, Jian-Jian; Huffman, George J.

2017-07-01

Global precipitation variations over the satellite era are reviewed using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly, globally complete analyses, which integrate satellite and surface gauge information. Mean planetary values are examined and compared, over ocean, with information from recent satellite programs and related estimates, with generally positive agreements, but with some indication of small underestimates for GPCP over the global ocean. Variations during the satellite era in global precipitation are tied to ENSO events, with small increases during El Ninos, and very noticeable decreases after major volcanic eruptions. No overall significant trend is noted in the global precipitation mean value, unlike that for surface temperature and atmospheric water vapor. However, there is a pattern of positive and negative trends across the planet with increases over tropical oceans and decreases over some middle latitude regions. These observed patterns are a result of a combination of inter-decadal variations and the effect of the global warming during the period. The results reviewed here indicate the value of such analyses as GPCP and the possible improvement in the information as the record lengthens and as new, more sophisticated and more accurate observations are included.

Characteristics of cloud occurrence using ceilometer measurements and its relationship to precipitation over Seoul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sanghee; Hwang, Seung-On; Kim, Jhoon; Ahn, Myoung-Hwan

2018-03-01

Clouds are an important component of the atmosphere that affects both climate and weather, however, their contributions can be very difficult to determine. Ceilometer measurements can provide high resolution information on atmospheric conditions such as cloud base height (CBH) and vertical frequency of cloud occurrence (CVF). This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of CBH and CVF derived using Vaisala CL51 ceilometers at two urban stations in Seoul, Korea, during a three-year period from January 2014 to December 2016. The average frequency of cloud occurrence detected by the ceilometers is 54.3%. It is found that the CL51 is better able to capture CBH as compared to another ceilometer CL31 at a nearby meteorological station because it could detect high clouds more accurately. Frequency distributions for CBH up to 13,000 m providing detailed vertical features with 500-m interval show 55% of CBHs below 2 km for aggregated CBHs. A bimodal frequency distribution was observed for three-layers CBHs. A monthly variation of CVF reveals that frequency concentration of lower clouds is found in summer and winter, and higher clouds more often detected in spring and autumn. Monthly distribution features of cloud occurrence and precipitation are depending on seasons and it might be easy to define their relationship due to higher degree of variability of precipitation than cloud occurrence. However, a fluctuation of cloud occurrence frequency in summer is similar to precipitation in trend, whereas clouds in winter are relatively frequent but precipitation is not accompanied. In addition, recent decrease of summer precipitation could be mostly explained by a decrease of cloud occurrence. Anomalous precipitation recorded sometimes is considerably related to corresponding cloud occurrence. The diurnal and daily variations of CBH and CVF from ceilometer observations and the analysis of microwave radiometer measurements for two typical cloudiness cases are also reviewed in parallel. This analysis in finer temporal scale exhibits that utilization of ground-based observations together could help to analyze the cloud behaviors.

The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Xie, Ping-Ping; Janowiak, John; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David

2003-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The data set is extended back into the premicrowave era (before 1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the raingauge analysis. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products including those at finer temporal resolution, satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. The 23-year GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

A study of the influence of soil moisture on future precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fennessy, M. J.; Sud, Y. C.

1983-01-01

Forty years of precipitation and surface temperature data observed over 261 Local Climatic Data (LCD) stations in the Continental United States was utilized in a ground hydrology model to yield soil moisture time series at each station. A month-by-month soil moisture dataset was constructed for each year. The monthly precipitation was correlated with antecedent monthly precipitation, soil moisture and vapotranspiration separately. The maximum positive correlation is found to be in the drought prone western Great Plains region during the latter part of summer. There is also some negative correlation in coastal regions. The correlations between soil moisture and precipitation particularly in the latter part of summer, suggest that large scale droughts over extended periods may be partially maintained by the feedback influence of soil moisture on rainfall. In many other regions the lack of positive correlation shows that there is no simple answer such as higher land-surface evapotranspiration leads to more precipitation, and points out the complexity of the influence of soil moisture on the ensuring precipitation.

Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Klaus, Julian; McHale, Michael R.

2007-01-01

Climate scientists have concluded that the earth’s surface air temperature warmed by 0.6 °C during the 20th century, and that warming induced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is likely to continue in the 21st century, accompanied by changes in the hydrologic cycle. Climate change has important implications in the Catskill region of southeastern New York State, because the region is a source of water supply for New York City. We used the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test to evaluate annual, monthly, and multi-month trends in air temperature, precipitation amount, stream runoff, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the region during 1952–2005 based on data from 9 temperature sites, 12 precipitation sites, and 8 stream gages. A general pattern of warming temperatures and increased precipitation, runoff, and PET is evident in the region. Regional annual mean air temperature increased significantly by 0.6 °C per 50 years during the period; the greatest increases and largest number of significant upward trends were in daily minimum air temperature. Daily maximum air temperature showed the greatest increase during February through April, whereas minimum air temperature showed the greatest increase during May through September. Regional mean precipitation increased significantly by 136 mm per 50 years, nearly double that of the regional mean increase in runoff, which was not significant. Regional mean PET increased significantly by 19 mm per 50 years, about one-seventh that of the increase in precipitation amount, and broadly consistent with increased runoff during 1952–2005, despite the lack of significance in the mean regional runoff trend. Peak snowmelt as approximated by the winter–spring center of volume of stream runoff generally shifted from early April at the beginning of the record to late March at the end of the record, consistent with a decreasing trend in April runoff and an increasing trend in maximum March air temperature. This change indicates an increased supply of water to reservoirs earlier in the year. Additionally, the supply of water to reservoirs at the beginning of winter is greater as indicated by the timing of the greatest increases in precipitation and runoff—both occurred during summer and fall. The future balance between changes in air temperature and changes in the timing and amount of precipitation in the region will have important implications for the available water supply in the region.

Correlating GRACE with Standardized Precipitation Indices and Precipitation Gauges for the High Plains Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, K. A.; Clancy, K.

2016-12-01

The NASA and German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) detects monthly changes in the gravity of the earth assumed to be water storage using the distance between two satellites, GRACE A and GRACE B, as a phase change. We will use level 3 GRACE Tellus data from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC). The data have a resolution of 9 km2 and are available for 2002 to 2015. We examine GRACE data for the High Plains aquifer (Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, New Mexico, Colorado and South Dakota) and compare changes to monthly averaged precipitation gauges, standardized precipitation indices for one, three, six, and twelve-months. We hypothesize that GRACE data will correlate best with 1) three-month standardized precipitation indices; 2) regions with natural land cover; 3) and in years where precipitation is at or above average.

Regional and seasonal estimates of fractional storm coverage based on station precipitation observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gong, Gavin; Entekhabi, Dara; Salvucci, Guido D.

1994-01-01

Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.

Empirical meaning of DTM multifractal parameters in the precipitation context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portilla Farfan, Freddy; Valencia, Jose Luis; Villeta, Maria; Tarquis, Ana M.; Saa-Requejo, Antonio

2015-04-01

The main objective of this research is to interpret the multifractal parameters in the case of precipitation series from an empirical approach. In order to do so nineteen precipitation series were generated with a daily precipitation simulator derived from year and month estimations and considering the classical statistics, used commonly in hydrology studies, from actual data of four Spanish rain gauges located in a gradient from NW to SE. For all generated series the multifractal parameters were estimated following the technique DTM (Double Trace Moments) developed by Lavalle et al. (1993) and the variations produced considered. The results show the following conclusions: 1. The intermittency, C1, increases when precipitation is concentrating for fewer days, making it more variable, or when increasing its concentration on maximum monthly precipitation days, while it is not affected due to the modification in the variability in the number of days rained. 2. Multifractility, α, increases with the number of rainy days and the variability of the precipitation, yearly as well as monthly, as well as with the concentration of precipitation on the maximum monthly precipitation day. 3. The maximum probable singularity, γs, increases with the concentration of rain on the day of the maximum monthly precipitation and the variability in yearly and monthly level. 4. The non-conservative degree, H, depends on the number of rainy days that appear on the series and secondly on the general variability of the rain. References Lavallée D., S. Lovejoy, D. Schertzer and P. Ladoy, 1993. Nonlinear variability and landscape topography: analysis and simulation. In: Fractals in Geography (N. Lam and L. De Cola, Eds.) Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 158-192.

Climatic forcing of carbon-oxygen isotopic covariance in temperate-region marl lakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, C. N.; Patterson, W. P.; Walker, J. C.

1995-01-01

Carbon and oxygen stable isotopic compositions of lacustrine carbonate from a southeastern Michigan marl lake display linear covariance over a range of 4.0% Peedee belemnite (PDB) in oxygen and 3.9% (PDB) in carbon. Mechanisms of delta 13 C-delta 18 O coupling conventionally attributed to lake closure in arid-region basins are inapplicable to hydrologically open lake systems. Thus, an alternative explanation of isotopic covariance in temperate region dimictic marl lakes is required. We propose that isotopic covariance is a direct record of change in regional climate. In short-residence-time temperate-region lake basins, summer meteoric precipitation is enriched in 18O relative to winter values, and summer organic productivity enriches epilimnic dissolved inorganic carbon in 13C. Thus, climate change toward longer summers and/or shorter winters could result in greater proportions of warm-month meteoric precipitation, longer durations of warm-month productivity, and net long-term enrichment in carbonate 18O and 13C. Isotopic covariance observed in the Michigan marl lake cores is interpreted to reflect postglacial warming from 10 to 3 ka followed by cooler mean annual temperature, a shift toward greater proportions of seasonal summer precipitation, a shortening of the winter season, or some combination of these three factors.

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

2017-01-01

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

Precipitation depth-duration and frequency characteristics for Antelope Valley, Mojave Desert, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blodgett, J.C.

1995-01-01

Methods to evaluate changes in the volume of storm runoff from drainage basins that are likely to be urbanized are needed by land-use planning agencies to establish criteria for the design of flood-control systems. To document the changes in runoff volume of basins that may be urbanized, nine small basins that are considered representative of varying hydrologic conditions in Antelope Valley, California, were selected for detailed study. Precipitation and stream-gaging stations were established and data were collected for the period 1990-93. The data collected at these U.S. Geological Survey stations were supplemented by data collected at 35 Long-term precipitation stations operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works. These data will be used to calibrate and verify rainfall-runoff models for the nine basins. Results of the model runs will then be used as a guide for estimating basin runoff characteristics throughout Antelope Valley. Annual precipitation in Antelope Valley ranges from more than 20 inches in the mountains to less than 4 inches on the valley floor. Most precipitation in the valley falls during the months of December through March, but cyclonic storms in the fall and convectional storms in the summer sometimes occur. The duration of most storms ranges from 1 to 8 days, but most of the precipitation usually occurs within the first 2 days. Many parts of the valley have been affected by storms with precipitation depths that equal or exceed 0.60 inch per hour. The storms of January 1943 and March 1983 were the most intense storms of record, with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years in some parts of the valley. Depth-duration ratios were calculated by disaggregating daily total precipitation data for intervals of 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, and 18 hours for storms that occurred during 1990-93. The hourly total precipitation data were then disaggregated at 5-minute intervals. A comparison of the depth-duration data collected during 1990-93 at the Geological Survey stations with the data collected at the other stations indicated that the 1990-93 data are not representative of historical storms. Therefore, depth-duration ratios developed using these data should be considered preliminary for use in disaggregating the historical hourly data for Antelope Valley. Annual maximum 24-hour precipitation records were used to calculate precipitation depth-frequency relations for 23 stations in the valley using the log Pearson type III distribution. These calculations indicate that the storms of January 1943 and March 1983 were the most intense of record in the valley with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years.

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kittel, T.G.F.; Rosenbloom, N.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Daly, Christopher; Gibson, W.P.; Fisher, H.H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.N.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown, R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.S.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Sykes, M.T.; Smith, B.; Cowling, S.; Hickler, T.; Prentice, I.C.; Running, S.; Hibbard, K.A.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.; Smith, T.; Rizzo, B.; Woodward, F.I.

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895-1993 on a 0.5?? latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and companion datasets are available online at data archive centers. ?? Inter-Research 2004.

Weather and landscape factors affect white-tailed deer neonate survival at ecologically important life stages in the Northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michel, Eric S.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Kaskie, Kyle D.; Klaver, Robert W.; Jensen, William F.

2018-01-01

Offspring survival is generally more variable than adult survival and may limit population growth. Although white-tailed deer neonate survival has been intensively investigated, recent work has emphasized how specific cover types influence neonate survival at local scales (single study area). These localized investigations have often led to inconsistences within the literature. Developing specific hypotheses describing the relationships among environmental, habitat, and landscape factors influencing white-tailed deer neonate survival at regional scales may allow for detection of generalized patterns. Therefore, we developed 11 hypotheses representing the various effects of environmental (e.g., winter and spring weather), habitat (e.g., hiding and escape cover types), and landscape factors (e.g., landscape configuration regardless of specific cover type available) on white-tailed deer neonate survival up to one-month and from one- to three-months of age. At one-month, surviving fawns experienced a warmer lowest recorded June temperature and more June precipitation than those that perished. At three-months, patch connectance (percent of patches of the corresponding patch type that are connected within a predefined distance) positively influenced survival. Our results are consistent with white-tailed deer neonate ecology: increased spring temperature and precipitation are likely associated with a flush of nutritional resources available to the mother, promoting increased lactation efficiency and neonate growth early in life. In contrast, reduced spring temperature with increased precipitation place neonates at risk to hypothermia. Increased patch connectance likely reflects increased escape cover available within a neonate’s home range after they are able to flee from predators. If suitable escape cover is available on the landscape, then managers could focus efforts towards manipulating landscape configuration (patch connectance) to promote increased neonate survival while monitoring spring weather to assess potential influences on current year survival.

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile).

PubMed

Orrego, R; Abarca-Del-Río, R; Ávila, A; Morales, L

2016-01-01

Climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962-1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070-2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°-40°S and 71°-74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

DOE PAGES

Orrego, R.; Abarca-del-Rio, R.; Avila, A.; ...

2016-09-28

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns suchmore » as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.« less

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrego, R.; Abarca-del-Rio, R.; Avila, A.

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns suchmore » as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.« less

Impact of moisture source regions on the isotopic composition of precipitation events at high-mountain continental site Kasprowy Wierch, southern Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozanski, Kazimierz; Chmura, Lukasz; Dulinski, Marek

2016-04-01

Five-year record of deuterium and oxygen-18 isotope composition of precipitation events collected on top of the Kasprowy Wierch mountain (49° 14'N, 19° 59'E, 1989 m a.s.l.) located in north-western High Tatra mountain ridge, southern Poland, is presented and discussed. In total 670 precipitation samples have been collected and analysed. Stable isotope composition of the analysed precipitation events varied in a wide range, from -2.9 to -26.6‰ for δ18O and from -7 to -195 ‰ for δ2H. The local meteoric water line (LMWL) defined by single events data (δ2H=(7.86±0.05)δ18O+(12.9±0.6) deviate significantly from the analogous line defined by monthly composite precipitation data available for IAEA/GNIP station Krakow-Balice (50o04'N, 19o55'E, 220 m a.s.l.), located ca. 100 km north of Kasprowy Wierch ((δ2H=(7.82±0.11)δ18O+(6.9±1.1). While slopes of those two LMWLs are statistically indistinguishable, the intercept of Kasprowy Wierch line is almost two times higher that that characterizing Krakow monthly precipitation. This is well-documented effect associated with much higher elevation of Kasprowy Wierch sampling site when compared to Krakow. The isotope data for Kasprowy Wierch correlate significantly with air temperature, with the slope of the regression line being equal 0.35±0.02 ‰oC for δ18O, whereas no significant correlation with precipitation amount could be established. The impact of moisture source regions on the isotopic composition of precipitation events collected at Kasprowy Wierch site was analysed using HYSPLITE back trajectory model. Five-days back trajectories were calculated for all analysed precipitation events and seasonal maps of trajectory distribution were produced. They illustrate changes in the prevailing transport patterns of air masses bringing precipitation to the sampling site. Back trajectories for the events yielding extreme isotopic composition of precipitation collected at Kasprowy Wierch were analyzed in detail. Acknowledgements. Financial support of this work through Ministry of Science and Higher Education (statutory funds of AGH University od Science and Technology, project No.11.11.220.01) is kindly acknowledged.

Prediction of monthly-seasonal precipitation using coupled SVD patterns between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2003-01-01

It was suggested in a recent statistical correlation analysis that predictability of monthly-seasonal precipitation could be improved by using coupled singular value decomposition (SVD) pattems between soil moisture and precipitation instead of their values at individual locations. This study provides predictive evidence for this suggestion by comparing skills of two...

Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Lall, Upmanu; Saltzman, Barry

1995-01-01

We demonstrate connections between decadal and secular global climatic variations, and historical variations in the volume of the Great Salt Lake. The decadal variations correspond to a low-frequency shifting of storm tracks which influence winter precipitation and explain nearly 18% of the interannual and longer-term variance in the record of monthly volume change. The secular trend accounts for a more modest approximately 1.5% of the variance.

Seven years (2008-2014) of meteorological observations plus a synthetic El Nino drought for BCI Panama.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Thomas; Kueppers, Lara; Paton, Steve

This dataset is a derivative product of raw meteorological data collected at Barro Colorado Island, Panama (see acknowledgements below). This dataset contains the following: 1) a seven-year record (2008-2014) of meteorological observations from BCI that is in a comma delimited text format, 2) an R-script that converts the observed meteorology into an hdf5 format that can be read by the ED2 model, 3) two decades of meteorological drivers in hdf5 format that are based on the 7-year record of observations and include a synthetic 2-yr El Nino drought, 4) a ReadMe.txt file that explains how the data in the hdf5more » meteorological drivers correspond to the observations. The raw meteorological data were further QC'd as part of the NGEE-Tropics project to derive item 1 above. The R-script makes the appropriate unit conversions for all observed meteorological variables to be compatible with the ED2 model. The R-script also converts RH into specific humidity, splits total shortwave radiation into its 4-stream parts, and calculates longwave radiation from air temperature and RH. The synthetic El Nino drought is based on selected months from the observed meteorology where in each, precipitation (only) of the selected months was modified to reflect the precipitation patterns of the 1982/83 El Nino observed at BCI.« less

Vegetation anomalies caused by antecedent precipitation in most of the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannopoulou, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Dorigo, W. A.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Depoorter, M.; Waegeman, W.

2017-07-01

Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intra-annually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, non-linear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth system models in their representations of past vegetation sensitivity to changes in climate.

Precipitation Records-HDSC/OWP

Science.gov Websites

resources and services. Greatest observed point precipitation values for the world and the USA US Comparison of the greatest point precipitation values for the world and the USA. World records (map, table) USA

High resolution reconstruction of monthly precipitation of Iberian Peninsula using circulation weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortesi, N.; Trigo, R.; Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J. C.; Ramos, A. M.

2012-06-01

Precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is highly variable and shows large spatial contrasts between wet mountainous regions, to the north, and dry regions in the inland plains and southern areas. In this work, a high-density monthly precipitation dataset for the IP was coupled with a set of 26 atmospheric circulation weather types (Trigo and DaCamara, 2000) to reconstruct Iberian monthly precipitation from October to May with a very high resolution of 3030 precipitation series (overall mean density one station each 200 km2). A stepwise linear regression model with forward selection was used to develop monthly reconstructed precipitation series calibrated and validated over 1948-2003 period. Validation was conducted by means of a leave-one-out cross-validation over the calibration period. The results show a good model performance for selected months, with a mean coefficient of variation (CV) around 0.6 for validation period, being particularly robust over the western and central sectors of IP, while the predicted values in the Mediterranean and northern coastal areas are less acute. We show for three long stations (Lisbon, Madrid and Valencia) the comparison between model and original data as an example to how these models can be used in order to obtain monthly precipitation fields since the 1850s over most of IP for this very high density network.

Modelling hydrological conditions in the maritime forest region of south-western Nova Scotia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanni, Shelagh; Keys, Kevin; Meng, Fan-Rui; Yin, Xiwei; Clair, Tom; Arp, Paul A.

2000-02-01

Hydrological processes and conditions were quantified for the Mersey River Basin (two basins: one exiting below Mill Falls, and one exiting below George Lake), the Roger's Brook Basin, Moosepit Brook, and for other selected locations at and near Kejimkujik National Park in Nova Scotia, Canada, from 1967 to 1990. Addressed variables included precipitation (rain, snow, fog), air temperature, stream discharge, snowpack accumulations, throughfall, soil and subsoil moisture, soil temperature and soil frost, at a monthly resolution. It was found that monthly per hectare stream discharge was essentially independent of catchment area from <20 km2 to more than 1000 km2. The forest hydrology model ForHyM2 was used to simulate monthly rates of stream discharge, throughfall and snowpack water equivalents for mature forest conditions. These simulations were in good agreement with the historical records once the contributions of fog and mist to the area-wide water budget were taken into account, each on a monthly basis. The resulting simulations establish a hydrologically consistent, continuous, comprehensive and partially verified record for basin-wide outcomes for all major hydrological processes and conditions, be these related to stream discharge, soil moisture, soil temperature, snowpack accumulations, soil frost, throughfall, interception and soil percolation.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z < -1.96) and an upward trend in annual maximum daily precipitation. Annual and monthly mean flows for most of the months in the Neka basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value < 0.05). Correlation coefficients for Kendall, Spearman's rank and linear regression are 0.43, 0.61, and 0.67, respectively. The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation and streamflow trends showed a downward trend for the mean annual precipitation observed in the upstream part of the study area which is consistent with the streamflow trend. Also, there is a good correlation between monthly and seasonal precipitation and streamflow for all sub-basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

On the controls of daytime precipitation in the Amazonian dry season

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghate, Virendra P.; Kollias, Pavlos

The Amazon plays an important role in the global energy and hydrological budgets. The precipitation during the dry season (June–September) plays a critical role in maintaining the extent of the rain forest. The deployment of the first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF-1) in the context of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign at Manacapuru, Brazil, provided comprehensive measurements of surface, cloud, precipitation, radiation, and thermodynamic properties for two complete dry seasons (2014 and 2015). The precipitation events occurring during the nighttime were associated with propagating storm systems (nonlocal effects), while the daytime precipitation events were primarily amore » result of local land–atmosphere interactions. During the two dry seasons, precipitation was recorded at the surface on 106 days (43%) from 158 rain events with 82 daytime precipitation events occurring on 64 days (60.37%). Detailed comparisons between the diurnal cycles of surface and profile properties between days with and without daytime precipitation suggested the increased moisture at low and midlevels to be responsible for lowering the lifting condensation level, reducing convective inhibition and entrainment, and thus triggering the transition from shallow to deep convection. Although the monthly accumulated rainfall decreased during the progression of the dry season, the contribution of daytime precipitation to it increased, suggesting the decrease to be mainly due to reduction in propagating squall lines. Lastly, the control of daytime precipitation during the dry season on large-scale moisture advection above the boundary layer and the total rainfall on propagating squall lines suggests that coarse-resolution models should be able to accurately simulate the dry season precipitation over the Amazon basin.« less

On the controls of daytime precipitation in the Amazonian dry season

DOE PAGES

Ghate, Virendra P.; Kollias, Pavlos

2016-12-16

The Amazon plays an important role in the global energy and hydrological budgets. The precipitation during the dry season (June–September) plays a critical role in maintaining the extent of the rain forest. The deployment of the first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF-1) in the context of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign at Manacapuru, Brazil, provided comprehensive measurements of surface, cloud, precipitation, radiation, and thermodynamic properties for two complete dry seasons (2014 and 2015). The precipitation events occurring during the nighttime were associated with propagating storm systems (nonlocal effects), while the daytime precipitation events were primarily amore » result of local land–atmosphere interactions. During the two dry seasons, precipitation was recorded at the surface on 106 days (43%) from 158 rain events with 82 daytime precipitation events occurring on 64 days (60.37%). Detailed comparisons between the diurnal cycles of surface and profile properties between days with and without daytime precipitation suggested the increased moisture at low and midlevels to be responsible for lowering the lifting condensation level, reducing convective inhibition and entrainment, and thus triggering the transition from shallow to deep convection. Although the monthly accumulated rainfall decreased during the progression of the dry season, the contribution of daytime precipitation to it increased, suggesting the decrease to be mainly due to reduction in propagating squall lines. Lastly, the control of daytime precipitation during the dry season on large-scale moisture advection above the boundary layer and the total rainfall on propagating squall lines suggests that coarse-resolution models should be able to accurately simulate the dry season precipitation over the Amazon basin.« less

Old Growth Conifer Watersheds in the Western Cascades, Oregon: Sentinels of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, K. M.

2011-12-01

In the Pacific Northwest, where the majority of precipitation falls during the winter, mountain snowpacks provide an important source of streamflow during the dry summer months when water demands are frequently highest. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are expected to result in a decline in winter snowpacks in western North America, earlier snowmelt, and subsequently a shift in the timing of streamflows, with an increasing fraction of streamflows occurring earlier in the water year and drier conditions during the summer. Long-term records from headwater watersheds in old growth conifer forest at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJ Andrews), Oregon, provide the opportunity to examine changes in climate, vegetation, and streamflow. Continuous streamflow records have been collected since 1953, 1964, and 1969 from three small (8.5-60 ha) watersheds (WS2, WS8, and WS9). Over the 40- to 50-year period of study, late winter to early summer monthly average minimum temperatures have increased by 1-2°C, and spring snow water equivalent at a nearby Snotel site has declined, but monthly precipitation has remained unchanged. Spring runoff ratios have declined in by amounts equivalent to 0.59-2.45 mm day-1 at WS2, WS8, and WS9, which are comparable to estimated rates of stand-level transpiration from trees in these watersheds. However, winter runoff ratios have not changed significantly at either WS2 or WS9, and have actually decreased at WS8 by 2.43 mm day-1 over the period of record. Furthermore, summer runoff ratios have not changed significantly at either WS8 or WS9, and have increased at WS2 by 0.34 mm day-1 over the period of record. These findings suggest that warming temperatures have resulted in a reduction in spring snowpacks and an earlier onset of evapotranspiration in the spring when soil moisture is abundant, but physiological responses of these conifer forests to water stress and water surplus may mitigate or exceed the expression of a climate warming effect on winter or summer streamflow.

A comparative statistical study of long-term agroclimatic conditions affecting the growth of US winter wheat: Distributions of regional monthly average precipitation on the Great Plains and the state of Maryland and the effect of agroclimatic conditions on yield in the state of Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, J.

1981-01-01

A histogram analysis of average monthly precipitation over 30 and 84 year periods for both Maryland and Kansas was made and the results compared. A second analysis, a statistical assessment of the effect of average monthly precipitation on Kansas winter wheat yield was made. The data sets covered the three periods of 1941-1970, 1887-1970, and 1887-1921. Analyses of the limited data sets used (only the average monthly precipitation and temperature were correlated against yield) indicated that fall precipitation values, especially those of September and October, were more important to winter wheat yield than were spring values, particularly for the period 1941-1970.

Frequency of annual maximum precipitation in the City of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, through 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, J. Curtis

2006-01-01

A study of annual maximum precipitation frequency in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, was conducted to characterize the frequency of precipitation at sites having at least 10 years of precipitation record. Precipitation-frequency studies provide information about the occurrence of precipitation amounts for given durations (for example, 1 hour or 24 hours) that can be expected to occur within a specified recurrence interval (expressed in years). In this study, annual maximum precipitation totals were determined for durations of 15 and 30 minutes; 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours; and for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years. Precipitation data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey network of raingages in the city of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County were analyzed for this study. In September 2004, more than 70 precipitation sites were in operation; 27 of these sites had at least 10 years of record, which is the minimum record typically required in frequency studies. Missing record at one site, however, resulted in its removal from the dataset. Two datasets--the Charlotte Raingage Network (CRN) initial and CRN modified datasets--were developed from the U.S. Geological Survey data, which represented relatively short periods of record (10 and 11 years). The CRN initial dataset included very high precipitation totals from two storms that caused severe flooding in areas of the city and county in August 1995 and July 1997, which could significantly influence the statistical results. The CRN modified dataset excluded the highest precipitation totals from these two storms but included the second highest totals. More...

Reconstruction of mass balance variations for Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand, 1913 to 1989

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woo, Mingko Woo; Fitzharris, B.B.

1992-11-01

A model of mass balance is constructed for the Franz Josef Glacier on the west coast of New Zealand. It uses daily data from a nearby, but short-record climate station. The model is extended back to 1913 by creating hybrid climate data from a long-record, but more distant, climate station. Its monthly data provide long-term temperature and precipitation trends, and daily fluctuations are simulated using a stochastic approach that is tuned to the characteristics of the short-record station. The glacier model provides estimates of equilibrium-line altitudes which are in reasonable agreement with those observed, and variations of cumulative mass balancemore » that correspond with patterns of advance and retreat of the glacier terminus.« less

Impact of landslides induced by 2014 northeast monsoon extreme rain in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuoka, Hiroshi; Koay, Swee Peng; Sakai, Naoki; Lateh, Habibah

2016-04-01

In December 2014, northeast monsoon brought extreme rainfalls to Malaysia, mainly in the eastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia and coastal area in Sabah and Sarawak. In this month, many of the rain gauge records in this area exceeded 1,000 mm, which is about 1/3 of average annual rainfall precipitation (2,850mm/year) in Malaysia. This unexpected heavy rainfall induced landslides and floods which brought about large-scale losses in Malaysia equivalent to several hundred million USD as thousands of residents had evacuated from hometown for months, and factories, schools and business activities were shut down for weeks. Among the major infrastructure of the nation, East-west Highway was subjected to damages by 21 landslides. Two large-scale landslides cut off the highway for a week. Authors had installed landslide monitoring instruments at reactivated landslide sites along the highway at N05° 36.042' E101° 35.546'. Records by in-situ inclinometers showed clear deformation from 17th December to 26th December, associated with certain change in piezometeres record for groundwater level monitoring. Several cracks occurred in the slope.

Precipitation variability in East Timor during Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; Shen, C.; Mii, H.; Sone, T.; Lin, Y.; Chen, Y.

2012-12-01

Here we present a δ18O record of stalagmite collected from Lekiraka cave, East Timor ( 8o47'10.8"S, 126o23'31.1"E; 626 m above sea level). This stalagmite stable oxygen isotope record, covering an age interval of 13.5-10.8 thousand years ago (ka, before 1950 AD) by an age model using 230Th dates. Featured with an increasing precipitation trend during Younger Dryas (YD), this record is similar to the Gunung Buda cave record in Borneo(Partin et al., Nature, 2007, 449, 452-455) and Liang Luar cave record from Flores(Griffiths et al., Nature Geosciences, 2009, 2, 636-639). However, the detailed YD precipitation variability in Lekiraka record is not completely consistent with that in the nearby Liang Luar record with a precipitation maximum at ~12.4 ka. We propose the intensified precipitation in YD period was attributed to an enhanced Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon and was responded to sea level rise and a southward shift of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which was driven by oceanic/atmospheric circulation change originally from the North Atlantic at the YD.

HDSC/OWP

Science.gov Websites

Maximum Precipitation Documents Miscellaneous Publications Storm Analysis Record Precipitation Contact Us ; - Probability analysis for selected historical storm events learn more > - Record point precipitation for the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Office of Water Prediction (OWP) 1325 East

The linkage between geopotential height and monthly precipitation in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvani, Amin; Fadaei, Amir Sabetan; Landman, Willem A.

2018-04-01

This paper investigates the linkage between large-scale atmospheric circulation and monthly precipitation during November to April over Iran. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to set up the statistical linkage between the 850 hPa geopotential height large-scale circulation and monthly precipitation over Iran for the period 1968-2010. The monthly precipitation dataset for 50 synoptic stations distributed in different climate regions of Iran is considered as the response variable in the CCA. The monthly geopotential height reanalysis dataset over an area between 10° N and 60° N and from 20° E to 80° E is utilized as the explanatory variable in the CCA. Principal component analysis (PCA) as a pre-filter is used for data reduction for both explanatory and response variables before applying CCA. The optimal number of principal components and canonical variables to be retained in the CCA equations is determined using the highest average cross-validated Kendall's tau value. The 850 hPa geopotential height pattern over the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf is found to be the major pattern related to Iranian monthly precipitation. The Pearson correlation between the area averaged of the observed and predicted precipitation over the study area for Jan, Feb, March, April, November, and December months are statistically significant at the 5% significance level and are 0.78, 0.80, 0.82, 0.74, 0.79, and 0.61, respectively. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) indicates that the highest scores for the above- and below-normal precipitation categories are, respectively, for February and April and the lowest scores found for December.

Synchronous precipitation reduction in the American Tropics associated with Heinrich 2.

PubMed

Medina-Elizalde, Martín; Burns, Stephen J; Polanco-Martinez, Josué; Lases-Hernández, Fernanda; Bradley, Raymond; Wang, Hao-Cheng; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2017-09-11

During the last ice age temperature in the North Atlantic oscillated in cycles known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. The magnitude of Caribbean hydroclimate change associated with D-O variability and particularly with stadial intervals, remains poorly constrained by paleoclimate records. We present a 3.3 thousand-year long stalagmite δ 18 O record from the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) that spans the interval between 26.5 and 23.2 thousand years before present. We estimate quantitative precipitation variability and the high resolution and dating accuracy of this record allow us to investigate how rainfall in the region responds to D-O events. Quantitative precipitation estimates are based on observed regional amount effect variability, last glacial paleotemperature records, and estimates of the last glacial oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation based on global circulation models (GCMs). The new precipitation record suggests significant low latitude hydrological responses to internal modes of climate variability and supports a role of Caribbean hydroclimate in helping Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation recovery during D-O events. Significant in-phase precipitation reduction across the equator in the tropical Americas associated with Heinrich event 2 is suggested by available speleothem oxygen isotope records.

High-resolution speleothem record of precipitation from the Yucatan Peninsula spanning the Maya Preclassic Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina-Elizalde, Martín; Burns, Stephen J.; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Beach, Timothy; Lases-Hernández, Fernanda; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Wang, Hao-Cheng

2016-03-01

We produced a new high-resolution absolute U-Th dated stalagmite oxygen isotope record (δ18O) from Río Secreto, Playa del Carmen, Yucatan Peninsula (YP). This new 1434-year stalagmite record (named Itzamna after the Maya god of creation) spans the time interval between BCE 1037 and CE 397 with an average resolution of 8 ± 2 years. It provides a novel view of climate evolution over the Preclassic and early Classic periods in Maya history. To understand the controls of regional precipitation δ18O on seasonal time scales, we characterized the amount effect between precipitation amount (P) and precipitation δ18O (δP). We found that precipitation δ18O in the Yucatan Peninsula is controlled by the amount effect on seasonal scales (δP/ΔP = - 0.0137 ± 0.0031‰ per mm, r = 0.9), as suspected but never before demonstrated. Cave drip δ18O is consistent with the annual amount-weighted δ18O composition of precipitation. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that stalagmite δ18O reflects isotopic equilibrium conditions and thus stalagmite δ18O changes are interpreted to reflect precipitation amount. We determined quantitative precipitation changes from the stalagmite δ18O record following previous methods (Medina-Elizalde and Rohling, 2012). The stalagmite precipitation record suggests twelve periods of anomalous precipitation reductions ranging between about 30 and 70% below mean conditions at the time and with durations from 6 years to 31 years. Between BCE 520 and 166, the speleothem precipitation record suggests that the YP experienced an interval of high precipitation labeled the Late Preclassic Humid Period (LPHP) with precipitation maxima of up to + 86 ± 20%. Preclassic Maya cultural expansion in El Mirador Basin, located in northern Guatemala, took place while the peninsula transitioned from the LPHP to an interval with below average precipitation. We find that the Preclassic abandonment of major centers in the Mirador Basin and others around the Maya Lowlands was synchronous with two unprecedented multi-decadal events of severe precipitation reduction with magnitudes of - 55 ± 13% and - 49 ± 12 and centered at CE 186 and 234, respectively. We also find evidence that centennial scale precipitation variability in the YP during the Preclassic Period may have been associated with shifts in rainfall fluxes from Atlantic tropical cyclones.

A 10-yr record of stable isotope ratios of hydrogen and oxygen in precipitation at Calgary, Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Haidong; Mayer, Bernhard; Harris, Stuart; Krouse, H. Roy

2004-04-01

Short-term (0.5 3 d) precipitation samples were collected from January 1992 to December 2001 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, and the stable isotope ratios of hydrogen (2H/1H) and oxygen (18O/16O) for these samples were determined. The 10-yr amount-weighted average δ2H and δ18O values of precipitation were -136.1‰ and -17.9‰, respectively. Consistent with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) established practice, the following local meteoric water line (LMWL) for Calgary was derived using amount-weighted monthly average δ2H and δ18O values: δ2H = 7.68 δ18O -0.21 (r2= 0.96, n= 104). The correlation equation between δ2H and δ18O values from individual samples was found to be δ2H = 7.10 δ18O -13.64 (r2= 0.95, n= 839), which is different from the LMWL, exhibiting lower slope and intercept values. A comparison of δ2H and δ18O correlation equations with temperature during precipitation events showed a trend of decreasing slopes and intercepts with increasing temperature. Our data suggest that this is caused by incorporation of moisture derived from evaporation from water bodies and soils along the storm paths and by secondary evaporation between the cloud base and the ground during precipitation events. These processes compromise the usefulness of d-excess values as an indicator for the meteorological conditions in the maritime source regions. The δ18O temperature dependence at Calgary was found to be 0.44‰°C1. The study shows that short-term sampling of individual precipitation events yields valuable information, which is not obtainable by the widely used monthly collection programs.

Late-Glacial to Late-holocene Shifts in Global Precipitation Delta(sup 18)O

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jasechko, S.; Lechler, A.; Pausata, F.S.R.; Fawcett, P.J.; Gleeson, T.; Cendon, D.I.; Galewsky, J.; LeGrande, A. N.; Risi, C.; Sharp, Z. D.;

A 2100-Year Reconstruction of July Rainfall Over Westcentral New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahle, D.; Cleaveland, M.; Therrell, M.; Grissino-Mayer, H.; Griffin, D.; Fye, F.

2007-05-01

We have developed a new 2,141-year long tree-ring chronology of latewood (LW) width from ancient Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosae) at El Malpais National Monument, New Mexico. This is one of the longest precipitation-sensitive tree-ring chronologies yet constructed for the American Southwest and has been used to develop the first continuous multi-millennial tree-ring reconstruction of July precipitation in the region of the North American Monsoon System (NAMS). Monthly average precipitation increases sharply in July over western New Mexico, marking the dramatic onset to the summer monsoon season. The LW chronology explains 44 percent of the interannual variability of July precipitation in the instrumental record for New Mexico climate divisions 1 and 4 (1960-2004), after removal of the linear dependence of LW width on earlywood width following Meko and Baisan (2001), and has passed statistical tests of verification on independent July precipitation data (1895-1959). The instrumental and tree-ring reconstructed July precipitation data are correlated with the concurrent 500 mb height field over western North America and with the sea surface temperature gradient from the central to eastern North Pacific. The reconstruction exhibits several severe sustained July droughts that exceed any witnessed during the instrumental era, and has significant spectral power at periods near 3-5, 20, and 70 years.

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

PubMed

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

Annual variations of monsoon and drought detected by GPS: A case study in Yunnan, China.

PubMed

Jiang, Weiping; Yuan, Peng; Chen, Hua; Cai, Jianqing; Li, Zhao; Chao, Nengfang; Sneeuw, Nico

2017-07-19

The Global Positioning System (GPS) records monsoonal precipitable water vapor (PWV) and vertical crustal displacement (VCD) due to hydrological loading, and can thus be applied jointly to diagnose meteorological and hydrological droughts. We have analyzed the PWV and VCD observations during 2007.0-2015.0 at 26 continuous GPS stations located in Yunnan province, China. We also obtained equivalent water height (EWH) derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and precipitation at these stations with the same period. Then, we quantified the annual variations of PWV, precipitation, EWH and VCD and provided empirical relationships between them. We found that GPS-derived PWV and VCD (positive means downward movement) are in phase with precipitation and GRACE-derived EWH, respectively. The annual signals of VCD and PWV show linearly correlated amplitudes and a two-month phase lag. Furthermore, the results indicate that PWV and VCD anomalies can also be used to explore drought, such as the heavy drought during winter/spring 2010. Our analysis results verify the capability of GPS to monitor monsoon variations and drought in Yunnan and show that a more comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of regional monsoon and drought can be achieved by integrating GPS-derived PWV and VCD with precipitation and GRACE-derived EWH.

Water resources data for Massachusetts and Rhode Island, water year 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Socolow, R.S.; Comeau, L.Y.; Murino, Domenic

2005-01-01

This report includes records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; contents and elevation of lakes and ponds; and water levels of ground-water wells. This volume contains discharge records for 112 gaging stations; stage records for 2 gaging stations; stage records for 2 ponds; month-end contents of 1 reservoir; precipitation totals at 6 gaging stations; water quality for 21 gaging stations; air temperature at 2 climatological stations; and water levels for 131 observation wells. Locations of these sites are shown in figures 1 and 2. Hydrologic data were collected at many sites that were not involved in the systematic data-collection program; these data are published as miscellaneous discharge measurements, miscellaneous surface-water-quality, and miscellaneous ground-water-quality data. The data in this report represent that part of the National Water Information System (NWIS) operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

A global satellite assisted precipitation climatology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, Andrew P.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Pedreros, Diego; Husak, Gregory J.; Peterson, P.

2015-01-01

Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate Hazards Group's Precipitation Climatology version 1 (CHPclim v.1.0,http://dx.doi.org/10.15780/G2159X), is shown to compare favorably with similar global climatology products, especially in areas with complex terrain and low station densities.

A global satellite-assisted precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Verdin, A.; Michaelsen, J.; Peterson, P.; Pedreros, D.; Husak, G.

2015-10-01

Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high-resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data-sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate Hazards Group's Precipitation Climatology version 1 (CHPclim v.1.0, doi:10.15780/G2159X), is shown to compare favorably with similar global climatology products, especially in areas with complex terrain and low station densities.

Surface Temperature and Precipitation Affecting GPS Signals Before the 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake (Central Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crescentini, L.; Amoruso, A.; Chiaraluce, L.

2017-12-01

This work focuses on GPS time series recorded before the Mw 6.1 earthquake which struck Central Italy in April 2009. It shows how environmental noise effects may be subtle and relevant when investigating relatively small strain signals and how the availability of data from weather stations and water level sensors co-located with GPS stations may provide critical information which must be taken into consideration while dealing with deformation signals.The preparatory phase of a large earthquake may include both seismic (foreshocks) and aseismic (slow slip event, SSE) deforming episodes but, unlike afterslip, no slow event has yet been recorded before moderate earthquakes, even when they occurred close to high-sensitivity strain meters. An exception to this seems to be represented by the 2009 earthquake. The main shock was preceded by a foreshock sequence lasting 6 months; it has been claimed that an analysis of continuous GPS data shows that during the foreshock sequence a 5.9 Mw SSE occurred along a decollement located beneath the reactivated normal fault system. This hypothesized SSE, that started in the middle of February 2009 and lasted for almost two weeks, would have eventually loaded the largest foreshock and the main shock.We show that the strain signal that the SSE would have generated at two laser strainmeters operating at about 20 km NE from the SSE source was essentially undetected. On the contrary, a transient signal is present in temperature and precipitation time series recorded close to the GPS station, MTTO, that has largest signal referred to the SSE, implying that these contaminated the GPS record. This interpretation is corroborated by the strong similarity, during the coldest winter months, between the displacement data of MTTO and a linear combination of filtered temperature and precipitation data, mimicking simple heat conduction and snow accumulation/removal processes. Such a correlation between displacement and environmental data is missing during the other seasons, when it neither snows nor freezes. This lack of correlation seems to exclude simple thermal expansion of the bedrock or the pillar monument itself as a local source of deformation. We hypothesize that thermal effects might be caused by ground freezing and consequent water expansion (about 9%) when liquid water is converted into ice.

Water-balance simulations of runoff and reservoir storage for the Upper Helmand watershed and Kajakai Reservoir, central Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2007-01-01

A study was performed to provide information on monthly historical and hypothetical future runoff for the Upper Helmand watershed and reservoir storage in Kajakai Reservoir that could be used by Afghanistan authorities to make economic and demographic decisions concerning reservoir design and operation, reservoir sedimentation, and development along the Helmand River. Estimated reservoir volume at the current spillway elevation of 1,033.5 meters decreased by about 365 million cubic meters from 1968 to 2006 because of sedimentation. Water-balance simulations indicated a good fit between modeled and recorded monthly runoff at the two gaging stations in the watershed for water years 1956-79 and indicated an excellent fit between modeled and recorded monthly changes in Kajakai Reservoir storage for water years 1956-79. Future simulations, which included low starting reservoir water levels and a spillway raised to an elevation of 1,045 meters, indicated that the reservoir is likely to fill within 2 years. Although Kajakai Reservoir is likely to fill quickly, multiyear deficits may still occur. If future downstream irrigation demand doubles but future precipitation, temperature, and reservoir sedimentation remain similar to historical conditions, the reservoir would have more than a 50-percent chance of being full during April or May of a typical year. Future simulations with a 10-percent reduction in precipitation indicated that supply deficits would occur more than 1 in 4 years, on average, during August, September, or October. The reservoir would be full during April or May fewer than 1 in 2 years, on average, and multiyear supply deficits could occur. Increased sedimentation had little effect on reservoir levels during April through July, but the frequency of deficits increased substantially during September and October.

Penultimate Glacial-Interglacial Climate Variability in the Southern Great Plains of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartow-Gillies, E.; Maupin, C. R.; Roark, E. B.; Chou, Y. C.; White, K.; Kampen-Lewis, S. V.; Shen, C. C.

2017-12-01

Projections of changes in rainfall under future warming scenarios vary in their sign and intensity over the Southern Great Plains (SGP). A scarcity of local paleoclimate information before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) limits our understanding of regional climate responses to changes in mean state and forcing. Here, we present absolutely U/Th-dated oxygen and carbon isotope records from a calcite stalagmite near Georgetown, Texas (30°N, 98°W), spanning 98 to 209 kyr before present (kyr BP). SGP moisture is primarily sourced from the Gulf of Mexico, and precipitation exhibits clear seasonality, with a biannual rainy season divided into late boreal spring and fall. We interpret the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmite to reflect changes in rainwater δ18O composition, as well as cave temperature, through time. There are no clear kinetic isotope effects observed within the stalagmite. More negative (positive) δ18O values are a reflection of warmer and wetter (cooler and drier) conditions based on modern observations of rainwater δ18O at the study site. Variations in stalagmite δ13C may be driven by shifts in overlying vegetation type and changes in the rates of karst flow and prior calcite precipitation. The stalagmite records include Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, an interval where global temperatures may have been as much as 2°C warmer and sea level 4-6 m higher than present. Thus, our δ18O record provides context of unique importance for how SGP hydroclimate may respond to future warming. Prominent features in the δ18O record, including a warm and wet MIS 5e appear to be paced by precession, with the timing of δ18O minima (maxima) broadly consistent with that of maxima (minima) in monthly insolation at 30°N. The δ13C record exhibits a striking similarity to canonical, sawtooth records of glacial-interglacial variability, which suggests Great Plains vegetation communities may be sensitive to the status of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Our SGP stalagmite records help to reveal the fundamental character of SGP climate response to glacial-interglacial forcings and provide evidence for increased precipitation under past warming conditions.

Relations between precipitation, groundwater withdrawals, and changes in hydrologic conditions at selected monitoring sites in Volusia County, Florida, 1995--2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, Louis C.

2012-01-01

A study to examine the influences of climatic and anthropogenic stressors on groundwater levels, lake stages, and surface-water discharge at selected sites in northern Volusia County, Florida, was conducted in 2009 by the U.S. Geological Survey. Water-level data collected at 20 monitoring sites (17 groundwater and 3 lake sites) in the vicinity of a wetland area were analyzed with multiple linear regression to examine the relative influences of precipitation and groundwater withdrawals on changes in groundwater levels and lake stage. Analyses were conducted across varying periods of record between 1995 and 2010 and included the effects of groundwater withdrawals aggregated from municipal water-supply wells located within 12 miles of the project sites. Surface-water discharge data at the U.S. Geological Survey Tiger Bay canal site were analyzed for changes in flow between 1978 and 2001. As expected, water-level changes in monitoring wells located closer to areas of concentrated groundwater withdrawals were more highly correlated with withdrawals than were water-level changes measured in wells further removed from municipal well fields. Similarly, water-level changes in wells tapping the Upper Floridan aquifer, the source of municipal supply, were more highly correlated with groundwater withdrawals than were water-level changes in wells tapping the shallower surficial aquifer system. Water-level changes predicted by the regression models over precipitation-averaged periods of record were underestimated for observations having large positive monthly changes (generally greater than 1.0 foot). Such observations are associated with high precipitation and were identified as points in the regression analyses that produced large standardized residuals and/or observations of high influence. Thus, regression models produced by multiple linear regression analyses may have better predictive capability in wetland environments when applied to periods of average or below average precipitation conditions than during wetter than average conditions. For precipitation-averaged hydrologic conditions, water-level changes in the surficial aquifer system were statistically correlated solely with precipitation or were more highly correlated with precipitation than with groundwater withdrawals. Changes in Upper Floridan aquifer water levels and in water-surface stage (stage) at Indian and Scoggin Lakes tended to be highly correlated with both precipitation and withdrawals. The greater influence of withdrawals on stage changes, relative to changes in nearby surficial aquifer system water levels, indicates that these karstic lakes may be better connected hydraulically with the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer than is the surficial aquifer system at the other monitoring sites. At most sites, and for both aquifers, the 2-month moving average of precipitation or groundwater withdrawals included as an explanatory variable in the regression models indicates that water-level changes are not only influenced by stressor conditions across the current month, but also by those of the previous month. The relations between changes in water levels, precipitation, and groundwater withdrawals varied seasonally and in response to a period of drought. Water-level changes tended to be most highly correlated with withdrawals during the spring, when relatively large increases contributed to water-level declines, and during the fall when reduced withdrawal rates contributed to water-level recovery. Water-level changes tended to be most highly (or solely) correlated with precipitation in the winter, when withdrawals are minimal, and in the summer when precipitation is greatest. Water-level changes measured during the drought of October 2005 to June 2008 tended to be more highly correlated with groundwater withdrawals at Upper Floridan aquifer sites than at surficial aquifer system sites, results that were similar to those for precipitation-averaged conditions. Also, changes in stage at Indian and Scoggin Lakes were highly correlated with precipitation and groundwater withdrawals during the drought. Groundwater-withdrawal rates during the drought were, on average, greater than those for precipitation-averaged conditions. Accounting only for withdrawals aggregated from pumping wells located within varying radial distances of less than 12 miles of each site produced essentially the same relation between water-level changes and groundwater withdrawals as that determined for withdrawals aggregated within 12 miles of the site. Similarly, increases in withdrawals aggregated over distances of 1 to 12 miles of the sites had little effect on adjusted R-squared values. Analyses of streamflow measurements collected between 1978 and 2001 at the U.S. Geological Survey Tiger Bay canal site indicate that significant changes occurred during base-flow conditions during that period. Hypothesis and trend testing, together with analyses of flow duration, the number of zero-flow days, and double-mass curves indicate that, after 1988, when a municipal well field began production, base flow was statistically lower than the period before 1988. This decrease in base flow could not be explained by variations in precipitation between these two periods.

Stable isotopes in water vapor and precipitation for a coastal lagoon at mid latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zannoni, Daniele; Bergamasco, Andrea; Dreossi, Giuliano; Rampazzo, Giancarlo; Stenni, Barbara

2016-04-01

The stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition in precipitation can be used in hydrology to describe the signature of local meteoric water. The isotopic composition of water vapor is usually obtained indirectly from measurements of δD and δ18O in precipitation, assuming the isotopic equilibrium between rain and water vapor. Only few studies report isotopic data in both phases for the same area, thus providing a complete Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL). The goal of this study is to build a complete LMWL for the lagoon of Venice (northern Italy) with observations of both water vapor and precipitation. The sampling campaign has started in March 2015 and will be carried out until the end of 2016. Water vapor is collected once a week with cold traps at low temperatures (-77°C). Precipitation is collected on event and monthly basis with a custom automatic rain sampler and a rain gauge, respectively. Liquid samples are analyzed with a Picarro L1102-i and results are reported vs VSMOW. The main meteorological parameters are continuously recorded in the same area by the campus automatic weather station. Preliminary data show an LMWL close to the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) with lower slope and intercept. An evaporation line is clearly recognizable, considering samples that evaporated between the cloud base and the ground. The deviation from the GMWL parameters, especially intercept, can be attributed to evaporated rain or to the humidity conditions of the water vapor source. Water vapor collected during rainfall shows that rain and vapor are near the isotopic equilibrium, just considering air temperature measured at ground level. Temperature is one of the main factor that controls the isotopic composition of the atmospheric water vapor. Nevertheless, the circulation of air masses is a crucial parameter which has to be considered. Water vapor samples collected in different days but with the same meteorological conditions (air temperature and relative humidity) show differences in terms of δ18O up to 3‰. Isotopic ratios in rain events and water vapor are in fact dominated by a seasonal component but outliers are clearly linked to air parcel origin. The monthly measurements of δD and δ18O in precipitation of August 2015, for instance, are lower than in colder months, considering monthly average temperatures. Single rain events show a small sequence of precipitation, that leads to 40% of total precipitation of August, which lowers δ-values considerably. The sampling on event basis during occasional and discontinuous rain also allows to identify the rainout effect, which leads to lightening water during a rainfall. Statistics based on back trajectories (48 hours) show that the major part of air parcels travels across central Europe and derives from sources located in the north Atlantic, whereas, a smaller fraction of the water vapor can be attributed to Mediterranean sources.

Increased Kawasaki Disease Incidence Associated With Higher Precipitation and Lower Temperatures, Japan, 1991-2004.

PubMed

Abrams, Joseph Y; Blase, Jennifer L; Belay, Ermias D; Uehara, Ritei; Maddox, Ryan A; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Nakamura, Yosikazu

2018-06-01

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute febrile vasculitis, which primarily affects children. The etiology of KD is unknown; while certain characteristics of the disease suggest an infectious origin, genetic or environmental factors may also be important. Seasonal patterns of KD incidence are well documented, but it is unclear whether these patterns are caused by changes in climate or by other unknown seasonal effects. The relationship between KD incidence and deviations from expected temperature and precipitation were analyzed using KD incidence data from Japanese nationwide epidemiologic surveys (1991-2004) and climate data from 136 weather stations of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Seven separate Poisson-distributed generalized linear regression models were run to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation on KD incidence in the same month as KD onset and the previous 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 months, controlling for geography as well as seasonal and long-term trends in KD incidence. KD incidence was negatively associated with temperature in the previous 2, 3, 4 and 5 months and positively associated with precipitation in the previous 1 and 2 months. The model that best predicted variations in KD incidence used climate data from the previous 2 months. An increase in total monthly precipitation by 100 mm was associated with increased KD incidence (rate ratio [RR] 1.012, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.005-1.019), and an increase of monthly mean temperature by 1°C was associated with decreased KD incidence (RR 0.984, 95% CI: 0.978-0.990). KD incidence was significantly affected by temperature and precipitation in previous months independent of other unknown seasonal factors. Climate data from the previous 2 months best predicted the variations in KD incidence. Although fairly minor, the effect of temperature and precipitation independent of season may provide additional clues to the etiology of KD.

Soil and climate modelling to explain soil differences in MIS5e and MIS13 on the Chinese Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finke, P. A.; Yu, Y.; Yin, Q.; Bernardini, N. J.

2016-12-01

Objective Proxy records indicate that MIS5 (about 120 ka ago) was warmer than MIS13 (about 500 ka ago). Nevertheless, MIS13-soils in the Chinese loess plateau (105 -115°E and 30-40°N) are stronger developed than MIS5-soils. This has been attributed to a stronger East Asian summer monsoon. Other differences are interglacial lengths and loess deposition rates. We aimed to find explanations for soil development differences by using a soil formation model (SoilGen) with climatic inputs obtained from an earth system model (LOVECLIM). Material and Methods The LOVECLIM model is driven by time-varying insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations and was run to give monthly values for temperature, precipitation and evaporation as well the dominant vegetation type. Model results for were corrected for systematic differences between present-day observation data and simulation. Reconstructions were made for both interglacials of the amount of inblown loess, and the mineralogy and grain size distribution of the initial loess as well as the dust. These data were fed into the SoilGen model, which was used to calculate various soil parameters with depth and over time. Results Simulations show a stronger developed MIS13 soil, in terms of weathering (loss of anorthite), and redistribution of calcite, gypsum and clay. This corresponds to observed paleosoils. MIS13-soils are more leached. As simulated temperatures and annual precipitation between MIS5 and MIS13 did not vary strongly, the greater length of MIS13 seemed the main explanation for the stronger leaching and weathering. Closer analysis however showed a larger number of months in MIS13 with a precipitation surplus, even when only considering the first 22 ka. Only in such months significant leaching can occur. Conclusion Using simulation models it was demonstrated that the stronger soil expression in MIS13 than in MIS5 is likely caused by more months with a precipitation surplus, in combination with a longer duration of MIS13.

Quasi-Global Precipitation as Depicted in the GPCPV2.2 and TMPA V7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David T.; Nelkin, Eric J.; Adler, Robert F.

2012-01-01

After a lengthy incubation period, the year 2012 saw the release of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2.2 monthly dataset and the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Version 7. One primary feature of the new data sets is that DMSP SSMIS data are now used, which entailed a great deal of development work to overcome calibration issues. In addition, the GPCP V2.2 included a slight upgrade to the gauge analysis input datasets, particularly over China, while the TMPA V7 saw more-substantial upgrades: 1) The gauge analysis record in Version 6 used the (older) GPCP monitoring product through April 2005 and the CAMS analysis thereafter, which introduced an inhomogeneity. Version 7 uses the Version 6 GPCC Full analysis, switching to the Version 4 Monitoring analysis thereafter. 2) The inhomogeneously processed AMSU record in Version 6 is uniformly processed in Version 7. 3) The TMI and SSMI input data have been upgraded to the GPROF2010 algorithm. The global-change, water cycle, and other user communities are acutely interested in how these data sets compare, as consistency between differently processed, long-term, quasi-global data sets provides some assurance that the statistics computed from them provide a good representation of the atmosphere's behavior. Within resolution differences, the two data sets agree well over land as the gauge data (which tend to dominate the land results) are the same in both. Over ocean the results differ more because the satellite products used for calibration are based on very different algorithms and the dominant input data sets are different. The time series of tropical (30 N-S) ocean average precipitation shows that the TMPA V7 follows the TMI-PR Combined Product calibrator, although running approximately 5% higher on average. The GPCP and TMPA time series are fairly consistent, although the GPCP runs approximately 10% lower than the TMPA, and has a somewhat larger interannual variation. As well, the GPCP and TMPA interannual variations have an apparent phase shift, with GPCP running a few months later. Additional diagnostics will include mean maps and selected scatter plots.

Precipitation isoscapes for New Zealand: enhanced temporal detail using precipitation-weighted daily climatology.

PubMed

Baisden, W Troy; Keller, Elizabeth D; Van Hale, Robert; Frew, Russell D; Wassenaar, Leonard I

2016-01-01

Predictive understanding of precipitation δ(2)H and δ(18)O in New Zealand faces unique challenges, including high spatial variability in precipitation amounts, alternation between subtropical and sub-Antarctic precipitation sources, and a compressed latitudinal range of 34 to 47 °S. To map the precipitation isotope ratios across New Zealand, three years of integrated monthly precipitation samples were acquired from >50 stations. Conventional mean-annual precipitation δ(2)H and δ(18)O maps were produced by regressions using geographic and annual climate variables. Incomplete data and short-term variation in climate and precipitation sources limited the utility of this approach. We overcome these difficulties by calculating precipitation-weighted monthly climate parameters using national 5-km-gridded daily climate data. This data plus geographic variables were regressed to predict δ(2)H, δ(18)O, and d-excess at all sites. The procedure yields statistically-valid predictions of the isotope composition of precipitation (long-term average root mean square error (RMSE) for δ(18)O = 0.6 ‰; δ(2)H = 5.5 ‰); and monthly RMSE δ(18)O = 1.9 ‰, δ(2)H = 16 ‰. This approach has substantial benefits for studies that require the isotope composition of precipitation during specific time intervals, and may be further improved by comparison to daily and event-based precipitation samples as well as the use of back-trajectory calculations.

Is There Really an Intermittent Biennial Oscillation in the Great Plains Low-Level Jet Over Texas?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. Mark

2002-01-01

In the 15-year GEOS-1 reanalysis data set, a maximum of interannual variance of low- level meridional flow for the warm season (May through August) occurs over southeast Texas. This variance maximum seems to be dominated by a marked biennial oscillation that occurs only during the first 6 (or possibly 8) years of the reanalysis period (1980-85 or possibly 1980-1987) and then completely disappears by the 9th year. This biennial oscillation seems to be associated with interannual fluctuations in ground wetness, surface temperature and surface pressure gradients over Texas. The periods of drier soil lead to warmer surface temperatures, lower surface pressures, stronger pressure gradients between Texas and the Gulf of Mexico and stronger southerly winds. This intermittent biennial oscillation is also evident in corresponding fields for the the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set for the years 1978-1985 (and possibly from 1978- 1987) and 1995-2000, but not during other periods. There are also obvious biennial oscillations evident during these periods in U.S. Climate Division records for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Texas. Month-by-month correlations of this index with certain el Nino related indices are as high as .45 for the first period and as high as .55 or .6 for the second period for some regions in Texas. The seasonal cycle of the biennial signal in the PDSI and precipitation for the first period suggest that the drought in Texas and Mexico is ended (caused) by a reversal in the sign of anomalies in precipitation rate for the fall/winter season. Analysis of tropical Pacific SST patterns shows a .5 to .75 K biennial oscillation of SSTs along the precipitation-free track to the southwest of the Mexican coast during the fall and winter months of the 1978 to 1985 period that might explain the reversal in precipitation anomalies and hence the entire intermittent biennial oscillation in ground hydrology and low-level flow.

Linking climate change and health outcomes: Examining the relationship between temperature, precipitation and birth weight in Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, Kathryn; Davenport, Frank; Hanson, Heidi; Funk, Christopher C.; Shukla, Shraddhanand

2015-01-01

This paper examined the relationship between birth weight, precipitation, and temperature in 19 African countries. We matched recorded birth weights from Demographic and Health Surveys covering 1986 through 2010 with gridded monthly precipitation and temperature data derived from satellite and ground-based weather stations. Observed weather patterns during various stages of pregnancy were also used to examine the effect of temperature and precipitation on birth weight outcomes. In our empirical model we allowed the effect of weather factors to vary by the dominant food production strategy (livelihood zone) in a given region as well as by household wealth, mother's education and birth season. This allowed us to determine if certain populations are more or less vulnerable to unexpected weather changes after adjusting for known covariates. Finally we measured effect size by observing differences in birth weight outcomes in women who have one low birth weight experience and at least one healthy birth weight baby. The results indicated that climate does indeed impact birth weight and at a level comparable, in some cases, to the impact of increasing women's education or household electricity status.

Heavy precipitation in the southwest of Iran: association with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and synoptic scale analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafar Nazemosadat, M.; Shahgholian, K.

2017-11-01

Some important characteristics of the November-April heavy precipitation in southwestern parts of Iran and their linkages to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) were assessed for the period of 1975-2011. Daily precipitation data in nine meteorological stations spread in various parts of the study area and the corresponding MJO indices were analyzed. For each station, precipitation data were sorted in descending order and those values that fell within 5% of the highest records were categorized as the heavy precipitation. Besides this, the 10% threshold was also analyzed as an axillary assessment. The considered heavy precipitation data (5% threshold) accounted from about 26-35% of total annual precipitation. About half of the heavy precipitation occurred during December-January period and the other half distributed within the months of March, February, November and April by about 17, 14, 13and 6%, respectively. The highest frequency of heavy precipitation was related to the MJO phase 8. After this, the more frequent precipitation events were respectively associated to the phases 2, 7, 1, 6, 5 and 4 of the MJO. For the phases 1, 2, 7 and 8 frequency of the heavy precipitation statistically increased when the MJO amplitude was greater than unity. In contrast, for phases 4 and 5, heavy precipitation was generally linked to the spells that the amplitude size was lower than unity. Formation of a strong north-south oriented cold front mainly in Saudi Arabia and west-east oriented warm fronts in the southwest of Iran were realized as the key elements for initiating heavy precipitation over the study area. Although development of the Mediterranean-based cyclonic circulation is essential for the formation of these fronts, moisture transport mostly originates from northern parts of the Arabian Sea, southern parts of the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.

Factors controlling stream water nitrate and phosphor loads during precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozemeijer, J. C.; van der Velde, Y.; van Geer, F. G.; de Rooij, G. H.; Broers, H. P.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2009-04-01

Pollution of surface waters in densely populated areas with intensive land use is a serious threat to their ecological, industrial and recreational utilization. European and national manure policies and several regional and local pilot projects aim at reducing pollution loads to surface waters. For the evaluation of measures, water authorities and environmental research institutes are putting a lot of effort into monitoring surface water quality. Fro regional surface water quality monitoring, the measurement locations are usually situated in the downstream part of the catchment to represent a larger area. The monitoring frequency is usually low (e.g. monthly), due to the high costs for sampling and analysis. As a consequence, human induced trends in nutrient loads and concentrations in these monitoring data are often concealed by the large variability of surface water quality caused by meteorological variations. Because natural surface water quality variability is poorly understood, large uncertainties occur in the estimates of (trends in) nutrient loads or average concentrations. This study aims at uncertainty reduction in the estimates of mean concentrations and loads of N and P from regional monitoring data. For this purpose, we related continuous N and P records of stream water to variations in precipitation, discharge, groundwater level and tube drain discharge. A specially designed multi scale experimental setup was installed in an agricultural lowland catchment in The Netherlands. At the catchment outlet, continuous measurements of water quality and discharge were performed from July 2007-January 2009. At an experimental field within the catchment continuous measurements of precipitation, groundwater levels and tube drain discharges were collected. 20 significant rainfall events with a variety of antecedent conditions, durations and intensities were selected for analysis. Singular and multiple regression analysis was used to identify relations between the continuous N and P records and characteristics of the dynamics of discharge, precipitation, groundwater level and tube drain discharge. From this study, we conclude that generally available and easy to measure explanatory data (such as continuous records of discharge, precipitation and groundwater level) can reduce uncertainty in estimations of N and P loads and mean concentrations. However, for capturing the observed short load pulses of P, continuous or discharge proportional sampling is needed.

Forest dynamics to precipitation and temperature in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region.

PubMed

Li, Tianyu; Meng, Qingmin

2017-05-01

The forest is one of the most significant components of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coast. It provides livelihood to inhabitant and is known to be sensitive to climatic fluctuations. This study focuses on examining the impacts of temperature and precipitation variations on coastal forest. Two different regression methods, ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR), were employed to reveal the relationship between meteorological variables and forest dynamics. OLS regression analysis shows that changes in precipitation and temperature, over a span of 12 months, are responsible for 56% of NDVI variation. The forest, which is not particularly affected by the average monthly precipitation in most months, is observed to be affected by cumulative seasonal and annual precipitation explicitly. Temperature and precipitation almost equally impact on NDVI changes; about 50% of the NDVI variations is explained in OLS modeling, and about 74% of the NDVI variations is explained in GWR modeling. GWR analysis indicated that both precipitation and temperature characterize the spatial heterogeneity patterns of forest dynamics.

Forest dynamics to precipitation and temperature in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tianyu; Meng, Qingmin

2017-05-01

The forest is one of the most significant components of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coast. It provides livelihood to inhabitant and is known to be sensitive to climatic fluctuations. This study focuses on examining the impacts of temperature and precipitation variations on coastal forest. Two different regression methods, ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR), were employed to reveal the relationship between meteorological variables and forest dynamics. OLS regression analysis shows that changes in precipitation and temperature, over a span of 12 months, are responsible for 56% of NDVI variation. The forest, which is not particularly affected by the average monthly precipitation in most months, is observed to be affected by cumulative seasonal and annual precipitation explicitly. Temperature and precipitation almost equally impact on NDVI changes; about 50% of the NDVI variations is explained in OLS modeling, and about 74% of the NDVI variations is explained in GWR modeling. GWR analysis indicated that both precipitation and temperature characterize the spatial heterogeneity patterns of forest dynamics.

Madeira Extreme Floods: 2009/2010 Winter. Case study - 2nd and 20th of February

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pires, V.; Marques, J.; Silva, A.

2010-09-01

Floods are at world scale the natural disaster that affects a larger fraction of the population. It is a phenomenon that extends it's effects to the surrounding areas of the hydrographic network (basins, rivers, dams) and the coast line. Accordingly to USA FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) flood can be defined as:"A general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of two or more acres of normally dry land area or of two or more properties from: Overflow of inland or tidal waters; Unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source; Mudflow; Collapse or subsidence of land along the shore of a lake or similar body of water as a result of erosion or undermining caused by waves or currents of water exceeding anticipated cyclical levels that result in a flood as defined above." A flash flood is the result of intense and long duration of continuous precipitation and can result in dead casualties (i.e. floods in mainland Portugal in 1967, 1983 and 1997). The speed and strength of the floods either localized or over large areas, results in enormous social impacts either by the loss of human lives and or the devastating damage to the landscape and human infrastructures. The winter of 2009/2010 in Madeira Island was characterized by several episodes of very intense precipitation (specially in December 2009 and February 2010) adding to a new record of accumulated precipitation since there are records in the island. In February two days are especially rainy with absolute records for the month of February (daily records since 1949): 111mm and 97mm on the 2nd and 20th respectively. The accumulated precipitation ended up with the terrible floods on the 20th of February causing the lost of dozens of human lives and hundreds of millions of Euros of losses The large precipitation occurrences either more intense precipitation in a short period or less intense precipitation during a larger period are sometimes the precursor of geological phenomena resulting in land movement, many times in the same or very near areas from previous episodes. Although flood episodes have a strong dependency in the topography and hydrological capacity of the terrains, the human intervention is also an enormously important factor, more specifically the anthropogenic factors such deforestation, dams, change of water fluxes, and impermeabilization of the terrain surface. The risk assessment of floods should be address based not only on the knowledge of the meteorological and hidrometeorological factors, such the accumulated precipitation and soil water balance but also in the river path and water amounts and well the surrounding geomorphology of the water basins. The current work is focused in the meteorological contribution for the floods occurrence episode of 2010 in the Madeira Island, specifically the climatic characterization of the 2009/2010 Winter with particular incidence on the days of the 2nd and 20th of February.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froidevaux, P.; Schwanbeck, J.; Weingartner, R.; Chevalier, C.; Martius, O.

2015-03-01

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. We analyze catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high amount of floods considered - more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed - allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, we propose a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to one month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g. a stationary low-pressure system). Because we consider a high number of events and because we work with daily precipitation values, we do not separate the "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation. The whole precipitation recorded during the flood day is included in the short-range antecedent precipitation. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the exit of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last three days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The weak influence of PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Prealpine, Alpine and Southalpine Swiss catchments. Our study nevertheless poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. We conclude that the consideration of a 3-4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

A Storm-by-Storm Analysis of Alpine and Regional Precipitation Dynamics at the Mount Hunter Ice Core Site, Denali National Park, Central Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saylor, P. L.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Winski, D.

2014-12-01

In May-June 2013, an NSF-funded team from Dartmouth College and the Universities of Maine and New Hampshire collected two 1000-year ice cores to bedrock from the summit plateau of Mount Hunter in Denali National Park, Alaska (62.940291, -151.087616, 3912 m). The snow accumulation record from these ice cores will provide key insight into late Holocene precipitation variability in central Alaska, and compliment existing precipitation paleorecords from the Mt. Logan and Eclipse ice cores in coastal SE Alaska. However, correct interpretation of the Mt. Hunter accumulation record requires an understanding of the relationships between regional meteorological events and micrometeorological conditions at the Mt. Hunter ice core collection site. Here we analyze a three-month window of snow accumulation and meteorological conditions recorded by an Automatic Weather Station (AWS) at the Mt. Hunter site during the summer of 2013. Snow accumulation events are identified in the Mt. Hunter AWS dataset, and compared on a storm-by-storm basis to AWS data collected from the adjacent Kahiltna glacier 2000 m lower in elevation, and to regional National Weather Service (NWS) station data. We also evaluate the synoptic conditions associated with each Mt. Hunter accumulation event using NWS surface maps, NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis data, and the NOAA HYSPLIT back trajectory model. We categorize each Mt. Hunter accumulation event as pure snow accumulation, drifting, or blowing snow events based on snow accumulation, wind speed and temperature data using the method of Knuth et al (2009). We analyze the frequency and duration of events within each accumulation regime, in addition to the overall contribution of each event to the snowpack. Preliminary findings indicate that a majority of Mt. Hunter accumulation events are of pure accumulation nature (55.5%) whereas drifting (28.6%) and blowing (15.4%) snow events play a secondary role. Our results will characterize the local accumulation dynamics on Mt. Hunter and quantify the relationship between alpine micrometeorological and regional precipitation dynamics, providing key insights into the interpretation of the Mt. Hunter paleoprecipitation record.

Statistical evaluation of the performance of gridded monthly precipitation products from reanalysis data, satellite estimates, and merged analyses over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Xueliang; Nie, Suping; Deng, Weitao; Cao, Weihua

2018-04-01

In this study, we compared the following four different gridded monthly precipitation products: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction version 2 (NCEP-2) reanalysis data, the satellite-based Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) data, the merged satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, and the merged satellite-gauge-model data from the Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). We evaluated the performances of these products using monthly precipitation observations spanning the period of January 2003 to December 2013 from a dense, national, rain gauge network in China. Our assessment involved several statistical techniques, including spatial pattern, temporal variation, bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (CC) analysis. The results show that NCEP-2, GPCP, and BMEP generally overestimate monthly precipitation at the national scale and CMORPH underestimates it. However, all of the datasets successfully characterized the northwest to southeast increase in the monthly precipitation over China. Because they include precipitation gauge information from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) network, GPCP and BMEP have much smaller biases, lower RMSEs, and higher CCs than NCEP-2 and CMORPH. When the seasonal and regional variations are considered, NCEP-2 has a larger error over southern China during the summer. CMORPH poorly reproduces the magnitude of the precipitation over southeastern China and the temporal correlation over western and northwestern China during all seasons. BMEP has a lower RMSE and higher CC than GPCP over eastern and southern China, where the station network is dense. In contrast, BMEP has a lower CC than GPCP over western and northwestern China, where the gauge network is relatively sparse.

The Siberian High and precipitation over Cyprus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lingis, P.; Michaelides, S. C.

2009-04-01

The aim of this study is to find possible teleconnection patterns associated with the Siberian High (SH) and precipitation in Cyprus. In this respect, the study examines the impacts that the SH exerts on local climate in areas far beyond the area of its domination; in particular, the relation of the teleconnection patterns derived from the SH Sea Level Pressure (SLP) characteristics and precipitation over Cyprus are examined. Four indices are used describing the characteristics of the SH (strength and geographical displacement). In an attempt to identify possible relations between precipitation, on the one hand, and the SH indices, on the other hand, a network of 32 rain gauge stations in Cyprus, both coastal and inland, was carefully selected to cover the whole island. Precipitation in Cyprus is mainly the result of baroclinic depressions traveling in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. SH as one of the dominant centers of action in the northern hemisphere, acts as one of the regulators of the preferred paths of these frontal depressions. The overall effect of the SH on these depressions is connected to characteristics and behavior of the SH, such as its intensity and location, as it may act as a blocking system preventing the propagation of migratory depressions eastwards or diverting them towards the North or South. The depressions arriving or forming over the island have a short lifespan and they are not frequent. The mean monthly sea-level pressure (SLP) was obtained from the dataset of the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, with horizontal analysis of 5 degree latitude and 10 degree longitude grid. The 5 degree resolution global mean monthly temperature anomaly values taken were also taken from the same source. Monthly total precipitation amounts from 32 rain gauges in Cyprus were obtained from the Cyprus Meteorological Service for the period 1961 - 2000. Finally, use has been made of the reanalysis data at 2.5x2.5 degree resolution of global monthly mean SLP and precipitation rate from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for the gridded SLP dataset for each month was performed. From this analysis, the first four Principal Components (PC) were obtained, explaining for the winter months 89-90% of the total variance and for all months 81- 90%. From the PCA and for each of the four Principal Components (hereafter denoted as PC1, PC2, PC3 and PC4), graphs of the loading distributions and the respective time series resulting from the scores of each PC were constructed. The scores were used as indices for further calculations. Susequently, the correlation coefficients between the PC scores and mean SLP for each month were calculated. The data from the 32 rain gauges were used to calculate the monthly mean precipitation over Cyprus. Extrapolation using distance weighted average algorithm was used to plot the spatial distribution of precipitation of each month over the island. Correlation coefficients were calculated between the four PC indices and the precipitation at each one of the rain gauge stations; these correlation coefficients were subsequently plotted on geographical maps in an attempt to visualize any recognizable patterns. Also, to investigate the overall effect of the four indices (i.e. PC1 to PC4) on precipitation over Cyprus, multiple correlation analysis was employed between these four indices and the total amount of precipitation of each month (the sum of all rain gauges used for each month).

Should we care about diurnal temperatures when calculating the precipitation isotope thermometer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachon, R.; Kloeckner, D.

2008-12-01

Long records of the concentrations of stable isotopes of precipitation (SIPs) have long been used as proxies for regional and global climates for periods when meteorological measurements were not made. SIPs' longstanding correlation to local surface temperatures (in many locations) and molecular thermal dynamics have lead to many interpretations of variability in SIPs to be changes in local temperatures. In order to create accurate temperature-SIP transfer functions one needs to link modern SIP concentrations to temperatures of when precipitation happened. A well-sited example of complexities in the temperature-SIP relationships - For simplicity one may assume that annual precipitation occurred at the same time of year throughout a long SIP archive, however, it is possible that the timing of precipitation actually shifted from summer to winter months. If the temperature difference between the seasons is large the SIP archive could be wrongly interpreted as a several degree cooling in average annual temperatures. Temperature changes similar in magnitude to seasonal fluctuations are also observed throughout a given day. What would happen if precipitation shifted from mid-afternoon to nighttime events? This line of thinking implies that diurnal effects plausibly should be considered when calculating SIP-transfer functions. This is particularly convincing when precipitation for a region is powered by middle of the day (summer) heat causing convective precipitation or evening cooling increasing relative humidities near the land's surface. This study examines both theoretical and observed (5 locations within North America) surface temperatures at the time of precipitation throughout a day and estimates diurnal effects on SIP-transfer functions. Ultimately, one must ask, how high does condensation form, and what are daily temperature patterns at those heights?

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric

1999-01-01

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Quantifying uncertainties in precipitation measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. Z. D.

2017-12-01

The scientific community have a long history of utilizing precipitation data for climate model design. However, precipitation record and its model contains more uncertainty than its temperature counterpart. Literature research have shown precipitation measurements to be highly influenced by its surrounding environment, and weather stations are traditionally situated in open areas and subject to various limitations. As a result, this restriction limits the ability of the scientific community to fully close the loop on the water cycle. Horizontal redistribution have been shown to be a major factor influencing precipitation measurements. Efforts have been placed on reducing its effect on the monitoring apparatus. However, the amount of factors contributing to this uncertainty is numerous and difficult to fully capture. As a result, noise factor remains high in precipitation data. This study aims to quantify all uncertainties in precipitation data by factoring out horizontal redistribution by measuring them directly. Horizontal contribution of precipitation will be quantified by measuring precipitation at different heights, with one directly shadowing the other. The above collection represents traditional precipitation data, whereas the bottom measurements sums up the overall error term at given location. Measurements will be recorded and correlated with nearest available wind measurements to quantify its impact on traditional precipitation record. Collections at different locations will also be compared to see whether this phenomenon is location specific or if a general trend can be derived. We aim to demonstrate a new way to isolate the noise component in traditional precipitation data via empirical measurements. By doing so, improve the overall quality of historic precipitation record. As a result, provide a more accurate information for the design and calibration of large scale climate modeling.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew; Cullinan, Valerie

Mojave Desert ecosystem processes are dependent upon the amount and seasonality of precipitation. Multi-decadal periods of drought or above-average rainfall affect landscape vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. The seasonality of precipitation events can also affect the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. To develop an understanding of precipitation regimes and fire patterns we used monthly average precipitation data and GIS data representing burned areas from 1971-2010. We applied a K-means cluster analysis to the monthly precipitation data identifying three distinct precipitation seasons; winter (October – March), spring (April-June) and summer (July-September) and four discrete precipitationmore » regimes within the Mojave ecoregion.« less

Water Isotope Proxy-Proxy and Proxy-Model Convergence for Late Pleistocene East Asian Monsoon Rainfall Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemens, S. C.; Holbourn, A.; Kubota, Y.; Lee, K. E.; Liu, Z.; Chen, G.

2017-12-01

Confidence in reconstruction of East Asian paleomonsoon rainfall using precipitation isotope proxies is a matter of considerable debate, largely due to the lack of correlation between precipitation amount and isotopic composition in the present climate. We present four new, very highly resolved records spanning the past 300,000 years ( 200 year sample spacing) from IODP Site U1429 in the East China Sea. We demonstrate that all the orbital- and millennial-scale variance in the onshore Yangtze River Valley speleothem δ18O record1 is also embedded in the offshore Site U1429 seawater δ18O record (derived from the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and sea surface temperature reconstructions). Signal replication in these two independent terrestrial and marine archives, both controlled by the same monsoon system, uniquely identifies δ18O of precipitation as the primary driver of the precession-band variance in both records. This proxy-proxy convergence also eliminates a wide array of other drivers that have been called upon as potential contaminants to the precipitation δ18O signal recorded by these proxies. We compare East Asian precipitation isotope proxy records to precipitation amount from a CCSM3 transient climate model simulation of the past 300,000 years using realistic insolation, ice volume, greenhouse gasses, and sea level boundary conditions. This model-proxy comparison suggests that both Yangtze River Valley precipitation isotope proxies (seawater and speleothem δ18O) track changes in summer-monsoon rainfall amount at orbital time scales, as do precipitation isotope records from the Pearl River Valley2 (leaf wax δ2H) and Borneo3 (speleothem δ18O). Notably, these proxy records all have significantly different spectral structure indicating strongly regional rainfall patterns that are also consistent with model results. Transient, isotope-enabled model simulations will be necessary to more thoroughly evaluate these promising results, and to evaluate potentially distinct regional mechanisms linking rainfall amount to precipitation isotopes at orbital and millennial time scales in other monsoon regions. 1 Cheng et al., 10.1038/nature18591 2 Thomas et al., 10.1130/G36289.1 3 Carolin et al., 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.028

Evaluation of Daily Extreme Precipitation Derived From Long-term Global Satellite Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.; Nickl, E.; Ferraro, R. R.

2017-12-01

This study evaluates the ability of different satellite-based precipitation products to capture daily precipitation extremes over the entire globe. The satellite products considered are the datasets belonging to the Reference Environmental Data Records (REDRs) program (PERSIANN-CDR, GPCP, CMORPH, AMSU-A,B, Hydrologic bundle). Those products provide long-term global records of daily adjusted Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) that range from 20-year (CMORPH-CDR) to 35-year (PERSIANN-CDR, GPCP) record of daily adjusted global precipitation. The AMSU-A,B, Hydro-bundle is an 11-year record of daily rain rate over land and ocean, snow cover and surface temperature over land, and sea ice concentration, cloud liquid water, and total precipitable water over ocean among others. The aim of this work is to evaluate the ability of the different satellite QPE products to capture daily precipitation extremes. This evaluation will also include comparison with in-situ data sets at the daily scale from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Daily), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded full data daily product, and the US Climate Reference Network (USCRN). In addition, while the products mentioned above only provide QPEs, the AMSU-A,B hydro-bundle provides additional hydrological information (precipitable water, cloud liquid water, snow cover, sea ice concentration). We will also present an analysis of those additional variables available from global satellite measurements and their relevance and complementarity in the context of long-term hydrological and climate studies.

Using GRACE to constrain precipitation amount over cold mountainous basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrangi, Ali; Gardner, Alex S.; Reager, John T.; Fisher, Joshua B.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance for hydrology and climate-change studies, current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in mountainous and high-elevation regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here by focusing on two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia, we show that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance equation. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger errors. It was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basins. In basins of appropriate size with an absence of dense ground measurements, as is a typical case in cold mountainous regions, we find GRACE can be a viable alternative to constrain monthly and seasonal precipitation estimates from other remotely sensed precipitation products that show large bias.

Variation characteristics of water vapor distribution during 2000-2008 over Hefei (31.9°N, 117.2°E) observed by L625 lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Min; Fang, Xin; Hu, Shunxing; Hu, Huanling; Li, Tao; Dou, Xiankang

2015-10-01

Observations of monthly and seasonal nightly water vapor variations over Hefei utilizing L625 lidar water vapor data observed from 2000 to 2008 is the focus of this study. The experimental setup and main parameters of the L625 lidar for water vapor measurement are first presented, then the measurement principle of water vapor and data processing methods are introduced. The water vapor measurement precision of the lidar system was analyzed by comparison with radiosonde. Monthly and seasonal water vapor profiles were built by analyzing 2000-2008 lidar data. In the vertical direction, results show that water vapor content decreases gradually with height. The more the water vapor content in the low atmosphere, the faster the decay rate with altitude. As far as monthly variation, the water vapor content first increases and then decreases with month. The maximum content of water vapor appears in July, at mixing ratio of 15.6 g/kg at 1 km. The seasonal variability of water vapor content is rather obvious. In summer the water vapor mixing ratio reaches up to 15.0 g/kg at 1 km, and in winter it is only 3.9 g/kg at the same altitude. Interannual variation of water vapor content differs between seasons (as revealed in the standard deviation of data) where summer is least stable and autumn is the most stable. Precipitable water vapor is calculated from water vapor mean profiles at 1-4 km and the relationship between precipitable water vapor and precipitation is also investigated. A clear positive correlation is found with Pearson correlation coefficients (R) 0.933 between monthly precipitation and mean precipitable water vapor, as well a clear positive correlation between seasonal precipitation and seasonal mean precipitable water vapor (R = 0.988). Precipitation conversion efficiency (PCE) is calculated from precipitation and precipitable water vapor. The monthly PCE reaches its maximum in October at 25.8%, and drops to its minimum in January at 11.5%. Seasonal PCE's minimum is 15.2% in autumn and 23.7% in winter, at maximum.

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Serbia for the period 1961-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milovanović, Boško; Schuster, Phillip; Radovanović, Milan; Vakanjac, Vesna Ristić; Schneider, Christoph

2017-10-01

Monthly, seasonal and annual sums of precipitation in Serbia were analysed in this paper for the period 1961-2010. Latitude, longitude and altitude of 421 precipitation stations and terrain features in their close environment (slope and aspect of terrain within a radius of 10 km around the station) were used to develop a regression model on which spatial distribution of precipitation was calculated. The spatial distribution of annual, June (maximum values for almost all of the stations) and February (minimum values for almost all of the stations) precipitation is presented. Annual precipitation amounts ranged from 500 to 600 mm to over 1100 mm. June precipitation ranged from 60 to 140 mm and February precipitation from 30 to 100 mm. The validation results expressed as root mean square error (RMSE) for monthly sums ranged from 3.9 mm in October (7.5% of the average precipitation for this month) to 6.2 mm in April (10.4%). For seasonal sums, RMSE ranged from 10.4 mm during autumn (6.1% of the average precipitation for this season) to 20.5 mm during winter (13.4%). On the annual scale, RMSE was 68 mm (9.5% of the average amount of precipitation). We further analysed precipitation trends using Sen's estimation, while the Mann-Kendall test was used for testing the statistical significance of the trends. For most parts of Serbia, the mean annual precipitation trends fell between -5 and +5 and +5 and +15 mm/decade. June precipitation trends were mainly between -8 and +8 mm/decade. February precipitation trends generally ranged from -3 to +3 mm/decade.

Regional regression equations for the estimation of selected monthly low-flow duration and frequency statistics at ungaged sites on streams in New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; McHugh, Amy R.

2014-01-01

Regional regression equations were developed for estimating monthly flow-duration and monthly low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged streams in Coastal Plain and non-coastal regions of New Jersey for baseline and current land- and water-use conditions. The equations were developed to estimate 87 different streamflow statistics, which include the monthly 99-, 90-, 85-, 75-, 50-, and 25-percentile flow-durations of the minimum 1-day daily flow; the August–September 99-, 90-, and 75-percentile minimum 1-day daily flow; and the monthly 7-day, 10-year (M7D10Y) low-flow frequency. These 87 streamflow statistics were computed for 41 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) with 20 or more years of record and 167 low-flow partial-record stations in New Jersey with 10 or more streamflow measurements. The regression analyses used to develop equations to estimate selected streamflow statistics were performed by testing the relation between flow-duration statistics and low-flow frequency statistics for 32 basin characteristics (physical characteristics, land use, surficial geology, and climate) at the 41 streamgages and 167 low-flow partial-record stations. The regression analyses determined drainage area, soil permeability, average April precipitation, average June precipitation, and percent storage (water bodies and wetlands) were the significant explanatory variables for estimating the selected flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Streamflow estimates were computed for two land- and water-use conditions in New Jersey—land- and water-use during the baseline period of record (defined as the years a streamgage had little to no change in development and water use) and current land- and water-use conditions (1989–2008)—for each selected station using data collected through water year 2008. The baseline period of record is representative of a period when the basin was unaffected by change in development. The current period is representative of the increased development of the last 20 years (1989–2008). The two different land- and water-use conditions were used as surrogates for development to determine whether there have been changes in low-flow statistics as a result of changes in development over time. The State was divided into two low-flow regression regions, the Coastal Plain and the non-coastal region, in order to improve the accuracy of the regression equations. The left-censored parametric survival regression method was used for the analyses to account for streamgages and partial-record stations that had zero flow values for some of the statistics. The average standard error of estimate for the 348 regression equations ranged from 16 to 340 percent. These regression equations and basin characteristics are presented in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats Web-based geographic information system application. This tool allows users to click on an ungaged site on a stream in New Jersey and get the estimated flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Additionally, the user can click on a streamgage or partial-record station and get the “at-site” streamflow statistics. The low-flow characteristics of a stream ultimately affect the use of the stream by humans. Specific information on the low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to water managers who deal with problems related to municipal and industrial water supply, fish and wildlife conservation, and dilution of wastewater.

Trends of rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during northeast and southwest monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chooi Tan, Kok

2018-04-01

The trends of rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia is mainly affected by the seasonal monsoon. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of northeast and southwest monsoons on the monthly rainfall patterns over Badenoch Estate, Kedah. In addition, the synoptic maps of wind vector also being developed to identify the wind pattern over Peninsular Malaysia from 2007 – 2016. On the other hand, the archived daily rainfall data is acquired from Malaysian Meteorological Department. The temporal and trends of the monthly and annual rainfall over the study area have been analysed from 2007 to 2016. Overall, the average annual precipitation over the study area from 2007 to 2016 recorded by rain gauge is 2562.35 mm per year.

Holocene Evolution of Precipitation Patterns in the Southwestern US, Mexico, Central America, and Caribbean: Comparison with Tropical SST Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, J. A.; Metcalfe, S. E.; Davies, S. J.

2014-12-01

We evaluate proxy reconstructions of Holocene records precipitation in the North American Monsoon region (SW US and northern Mexico) and regions to the south (southern Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Seventy-seven precipitation records are tabulated at 2-3 kyr increments for the past 12 kyr, with results displayed mainly on maps. Sites currently dominated by summer precipitation, coupled with proxy records that distinguish summer vs. winter vegetation are used to estimate summer precipitation. Resulting patterns of precipitation variability are evaluated against SST reconstructions from surrounding tropical seas -eastern tropical Pacific, Gulf of California (GoC), Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico (GoM), which are source areas for summer precipitation. During the Younger Dryas, ca. 12 ka, widespread drying in southern regions contrasted with evidence for wetter conditions in multiple records from the SW US. By 9 ka wetter conditions had spread to the southern regions, likely reflecting an increased Caribbean low-level jet associated with an enhanced Bermuda High. Pacific westerlies contributed significant winter precipitation to the southwestern US and northernmost Mexico at 9 ka. The modern geographical pattern of summer precipitation was established by 6 ka, as the Bermuda High moved northward following the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. SSTs in the GoC and GoM increased, and the NAM strengthened. Increased regional precipitation differences are apparent by 4 ka, likely reflecting enhanced ENSO variability. Most of the southern region experienced increased precipitation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), whereas winter drought dominated in the north. In contrast, much of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was characterized by generally drier conditions in Central America and Mexico, with wetter conditions in the SW US. Results are broadly supportive of enhanced La Niña-like conditions during the MCA vs. increased ENSO variability during the LIA.

Ground-water levels in Huron County, Michigan, 2004-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, T.L.; Crowley, S.L.; Blumer, S.P.

2006-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a study of the hydrogeology of Huron County, Michigan (Sweat, 1991). In 1993, Huron County and the USGS entered into a continuing agreement to measure water levels at selected wells throughout Huron County. As part of the agreement, USGS has operated four continuous water-level recorders, installed from 1988 to 1991 on wells in Bingham, Fairhaven, Grant, and Lake Townships (fig. 1) and summarized the data collected in an annual or bi-annual report. The agreement was altered in 2003, and beginning January 1, 2004, only the wells in Fairhaven and Lake Townships retained continuous waterlevel recorders, while the wells in Grant and Bingham Townships reverted primarily to periodic or quarterly measurement status. USGS also has provided training for County or Huron Conservation District personnel to measure the water level, on a quarterly basis, in 25 wells. USGS personnel regularly accompany County or Huron Conservation District personnel to provide a quality assurance/quality control check of all measurements being made. Water-level data collected from the 25 periodically or quarterly-measured wells is summarized in an annual or bi-annual report. In 1998, the USGS also completed a temporal and spatial analysis of the monitoring well network in Huron County (Holtschlag and Sweat, 1998). The altitude of Lake Huron and precipitation are good indicators of general climatic conditions and, therefore, provide an environmental context for ground-water levels in Huron County. Figure 2 shows the mean-monthly water-level altitude of Lake Huron, averaged from measurements made by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at sites near Essexville or Harbor Beach, or both (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2003-05), and monthly precipitation measured in Bad Axe (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2003-05). In March 2003, a new low-water level for the period from 1991 through 2005 was measured in Lake Huron. There was almost no net change in the water level of Lake Huron from January 2004 through December 2005. In 2004, annual precipitation measured in Port Hope was about 3.7 inches above normal, but precipitation measured in Bad Axe was about 1.4 inches below normal. About 14.5 inches of precipitation was measured in Bad Axe during the 2004 summer growing season (May through August), which is about the same as was measured in Port Hope during the same period. Provisional precipitation totals for 2005 were 30.7 inches for January through November in Port Hope, and about 31.7 inches for the year in Bad Axe. About 10.6 inches of precipitation was measured in Bad Axe during the 2005 summer growing season, which is about 0.2 inches more than was recorded at Port Hope during the same period. Two wells equipped with continuous-data recorders are completed in the Saginaw and Marshall aquifers in Fairhaven and Lake Townships, respectively. From January 2004 through December 2005, the net rise in the water level in the Fairhaven Township well was 0.71 ft, and the net rise in the Lake Township well was 0.98 ft. The Fairhaven Township well is drilled adjacent to Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron), and, as previously noted, there was almost no net change in the water level in Saginaw Bay over the same period. Hydrographs showing water levels are presented for the two wells equipped with continuous-data recorders. Continuous-data recorders were discontinued in the Grant and Bingham Township wells at the end of 2003 due to budget constraints. The decision of which two wells to discontinue was based on an analysis of the intrinsic value to Huron County of data from each well. The Grant Township well was selected for periodic or quarterly measurement at that time because it is completed in the glacial aquifer, which is little used for drinking water purposes or absent in much of Huron County. The Bingham Township well, which is completed in the Marshall aquifer, was selected for

On precipitation monitoring with theoretical statistical distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cindrić, Ksenija; Juras, Josip; Pasarić, Zoran

2018-04-01

A common practice in meteorological drought monitoring is to transform the observed precipitation amounts to the standardised precipitation index (SPI). Though the gamma distribution is usually employed for this purpose, some other distribution may be used, particularly in regions where zero precipitation amounts are recorded frequently. In this study, two distributions are considered alongside with the gamma distribution: the compound Poisson exponential distribution (CPE) and the square root normal distribution (SRN). They are fitted to monthly precipitation amounts measured at 24 stations in Croatia in the 55-year-long period (1961-2015). At five stations, long-term series (1901-2015) are available and they have been used for a more detailed investigation. The accommodation of the theoretical distributions to empirical ones is tested by comparison of the corresponding empirical and theoretical ratios of the skewness and the coefficient of variation. Furthermore, following the common approach to precipitation monitoring (CLIMAT reports), the comparison of the empirical and theoretical quintiles in the two periods (1961-1990 and 1991-2015) is examined. The results from the present study reveal that it would be more appropriate to implement theoretical distributions in such climate reports, since they provide better evaluation for monitoring purposes than the current empirical distribution. Nevertheless, deciding on an optimal theoretical distribution for different climate regimes and for different time periods is not easy to accomplish. With regard to Croatian stations (covering different climate regimes), the CPE or SRN distribution could also be the right choice in the climatological practice, in addition to the gamma distribution.

Prehospital Delay, Precipitants of Admission, and Length of Stay in Patients With Exacerbation of Heart Failure.

PubMed

Wu, Jia-Rong; Lee, Kyoung Suk; Dekker, Rebecca D; Welsh, J Darlene; Song, Eun Kyeung; Abshire, Demetrius A; Lennie, Terry A; Moser, Debra K

2016-12-01

Factors that precipitate hospitalization for exacerbation of heart failure provide targets for intervention to prevent hospitalizations. To describe demographic, clinical, behavioral, and psychosocial factors that precipitate admission for exacerbation of heart failure and assess the relationships between precipitating factors and delay before hospitalization, and between delay time and length of hospital stay. All admissions in 12 full months to a tertiary medical center were reviewed if the patient had a discharge code related to heart failure. Data on confirmed admissions for exacerbation of heart failure were included in the study. Electronic and paper medical records were reviewed to identify how long it took patients to seek care after they became aware of signs and symptoms, factors that precipitated exacerbation, and discharge details. Exacerbation of heart failure was confirmed in 482 patients. Dyspnea was the most common symptom (92.5% of patients), and 20.3% of patients waited until they were severely dyspneic before seeking treatment. The most common precipitating factor was poor medication adherence. Delay times from symptom awareness to seeking treatment were shorter in patients who had a recent change in medicine for heart failure, renal failure, or poor medication adherence and longer in patients with depressive symptoms and hypertension. Depressive symptoms, recent change in heart failure medicine, renal failure, poor medication adherence, and hypertension are risk factors for hospitalizations for exacerbation of heart failure. ©2016 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

Investigating the relationship between deforestation and changes in hydrology across the island of Hispaniola

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakimdavar, R.

2013-05-01

Over recent decades, Haiti and the Dominican Republic have reported changes in reservoir water levels - while some areas have experienced increases others have seen decreasing trends, especially reservoirs located in the Dominican Republic - leading to, among other things, regional flooding and shortages in hydroelectricity output. We investigate whether extensive deforestation, particularly in the western part of Hispaniola - shared by the two nations - is driving these changes by affecting the regional water balance. Due to a lack of available spatiotemporal environmental data, remotely sensed vegetation and precipitation information is used along with estimated evapotranspiration rates to study regional hydro-climatologic fluctuations over three decades. Changes in vegetative cover, precipitation, and evapotranspiration across the island are investigated using 25 years of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, historical satellite and gauge precipitation records, and estimated surface temperature and solar radiation. NDVI values are derived from imagery obtained by NOAA's 8 km resolution AVHRR instrument. Monthly precipitation is collected from several different sources, including NASA and NOAA precipitation satellites, as well as local rain gauges. Evapotranspiration is estimated using an energy balance approach. Preliminary results indicate a general decrease in rainfall over the eastern part of the island during the past three decades, with little change observed across the western half. NDVI and precipitation anomalies across the island are not well correlated, suggesting that deforestation is likely not the cause of regional changes in precipitation. The results of this work hold potentially important implications for future land-use and water infrastructure planning for both nations.

Computer model of Raritan River Basin water-supply system in central New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, Paul; Tasker, Gary D.

1996-01-01

This report describes a computer model of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system in central New Jersey. The computer model provides a technical basis for evaluating the effects of alternative patterns of operation of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system during extended periods of below-average precipitation. The computer model is a continuity-accounting model consisting of a series of interconnected nodes. At each node, the inflow volume, outflow volume, and change in storage are determined and recorded for each month. The model runs with a given set of operating rules and water-use requirements including releases, pumpages, and diversions. The model can be used to assess the hypothetical performance of the Raritan River Basin water- supply system in past years under alternative sets of operating rules. It also can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as the depletion of reservoir contents below a specified threshold or of streamflows below statutory minimum passing flows, for a period of up to 12 months. The model was constructed on the basis of current reservoir capacities and the natural, unregulated monthly runoff values recorded at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow- gaging stations in the basin.

Scaling behaviors of precipitation over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Lei; Li, Nana; Zhao, Xia

2017-04-01

Scaling behaviors in the precipitation time series derived from 1951 to 2009 over China are investigated by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. The results show that there exists long-term memory for the precipitation time series in some stations, where the values of the scaling exponent α are less than 0.62, implying weak persistence characteristics. The values of scaling exponent in other stations indicate random behaviors. In addition, the scaling exponent α in precipitation records varies from station to station over China. A numerical test is made to verify the significance in DFA exponents by shuffling the data records many times. We think it is significant when the values of scaling exponent before shuffled precipitation records are larger than the interval threshold for 95 % confidence level after shuffling precipitation records many times. By comparison, the daily precipitation records exhibit weak positively long-range correlation in a power law fashion mainly at the stations taking on zonal distributions in south China, upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, northern part of northeast China. This may be related to the subtropical high. Furthermore, the values of scaling exponent which cannot pass the significance test do not show a clear distribution pattern. It seems that the stations are mainly distributed in coastal areas, southwest China, and southern part of north China. In fact, many complicated factors may affect the scaling behaviors of precipitation such as the system of the east and south Asian monsoon, the interaction between sea and land, and the big landform of the Tibetan Plateau. These results may provide a better prerequisite to long-term predictor of precipitation time series for different regions over China.

Evaluation of National Atmospheric Deposition Program measurements for co-located Sites CO89 and CO98 at Rocky Mountain National Park, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2013-01-01

Median weekly absolute percent differences for selected parameters including: sample volume, 8.0 percent; ammonium concentration, 9.1 percent; nitrate concentration, 8.5 percent; sulfate concentration, 10.2 percent. Annual precipitation-weighted mean concentrations were higher for CO98 compared to CO89 for all analytes. The chemical concentration record for CO98 contains more valid samples than the CO89 record. Therefore, the CO98 record is more representative of 2012 total annual deposition at Loch Vale. Daily precipitation-depth records for the co-located precipitation gages were 100 percent complete, and the total annual precipitation depths between the sites differed by 0.1 percent for the year (91.5 and 91.4 cm).

Effects of bulk precipitation pH and growth period on cation enrichment in precipitation beneath the canopy of a beech (Fagus moesiaca) forest stand.

PubMed

Michopoulos, P; Baloutsos, G; Nakos, G; Economou, A

2001-12-17

The effects of bulk precipitation pH and growth period (growing and dormant) on cation enrichment beneath foliage were examined in a beech (Fagus moesiaca) forest stand during a 48-month period. The bulk precipitation pH values ranged from 4.2 to 7.2. The lowest values were observed in winter due to fossil fuel combustion in a nearby big city. The ratio of monthly ion fluxes of throughfall plus stemflow over monthly ion fluxes of bulk precipitation was chosen as an index of cation enrichment and, therefore, as the dependent variable. Bulk precipitation pH and growth period were chosen as independent factors. Precipitation interception (%) by tree canopies was also taken into account. It was found that the pH factor was significant only for H+ ion enrichment suggesting neutralization of H+ ions in the beech canopy, whereas Mg2+ and K+ enrichment were greater in the growing period, probably as a result of leaching. Crown interception was negatively significant for NH4+-N enrichment.

Topographical effects on the distributions of rainfall and 18O distributions: a case in Miyake Island, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Changyuan; Shindo, Shizuo; Machida, Isao

1998-03-01

In this paper, we try to calculate precipitation in Miyake Island, Japan. In order to know the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation, we have set 15 rain gauges randomly in the island to collect the monthly precipitation data since June 1994. It is found that the precipitation is very different from point to point. First, we used statistical methods to get the correlations between the monthly precipitation at our survey points and that at the weather station. Next, regression analyses were used to establish formulae to calculate precipitation as a function of altitude, aspect of the geomorphological surface and wind direction. Based on these results, distributions of monthly and yearly precipitation and 18O over the island were assessed. The results show that landscape patterns strongly influence precipitation distribution over the island, with the highest precipitation being found on the windward side, about 400-600 m above sea level. Even at places at the same altitude, the precipitation was different because of the aspect of the landscape. At the same time, altitude effects for 18O on both the windward and leeward sides were -0·10/100 m and -0·15/100 m, respectively. Comparing with the distribution of precipitation distribution, it was also found that 18O for the windward and leeward sides was different from that for precipitation, which means that both topographical effects must be considered separately.

Assessing vegetation structure and ANPP dynamics in a grassland-shrubland Chihuahuan ecotone using NDVI-rainfall relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno-de las Heras, M.; Diaz-Sierra, R.; Turnbull, L.; Wainwright, J.

2015-01-01

Climate change and the widespread alteration of natural habitats are major drivers of vegetation change in drylands. A classic case of vegetation change is the shrub-encroachment process that has been taking place over the last 150 years in the Chihuahuan Desert, where large areas of grasslands dominated by perennial grass species (black grama, Bouteloua eriopoda, and blue grama, B. gracilis) have transitioned to shrublands dominated by woody species (creosotebush, Larrea tridentata, and mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa), accompanied by accelerated water and wind erosion. Multiple mechanisms drive the shrub-encroachment process, including exogenous triggering factors such as precipitation variations and land-use change, and endogenous amplifying mechanisms brought about by soil erosion-vegetation feedbacks. In this study, simulations of plant biomass dynamics with a simple modelling framework indicate that herbaceous (grasses and forbs) and shrub vegetation in drylands have different responses to antecedent precipitation due to functional differences in plant growth and water-use patterns, and therefore shrub encroachment may be reflected in the analysis of landscape-scale vegetation-rainfall relationships. We analyze the structure and dynamics of vegetation at an 18 km2 grassland-shrubland ecotone in the northern edge of the Chihuahuan Desert (McKenzie Flats, Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, NM, USA) by investigating the relationship between decade-scale (2000-2013) records of medium-resolution remote sensing of vegetation greenness (MODIS NDVI) and precipitation. Spatial evaluation of NDVI-rainfall relationship at the studied ecotone indicates that herbaceous vegetation shows quick growth pulses associated with short-term (previous 2 months) precipitation, while shrubs show a slow response to medium-term (previous 5 months) precipitation. We use these relationships to (a) classify landscape types as a function of the spatial distribution of dominant vegetation, and to (b) decompose the NDVI signal into partial primary production components for herbaceous vegetation and shrubs across the study site. We further apply remote-sensed annual net primary production (ANPP) estimations and landscape type classification to explore the influence of inter-annual variations in seasonal precipitation on the production of herbaceous and shrub vegetation. Our results suggest that changes in the amount and temporal pattern of precipitation comprising reductions in monsoonal summer rainfall and/or increases in winter precipitation may enhance the shrub-encroachment process in desert grasslands of the American Southwest.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data - Regional Climate Maps:

Science.gov Websites

; Precipitation & Temperature > Regional Climate Maps: USA Menu Weekly 1-Month 3-Month 12-Month Weekly Total Precipitation Average Temperature Extreme Maximum Temperature Extreme Minimum Temperature Departure of Average Temperature from Normal Extreme Apparent Temperature Minimum Wind Chill Temperature

Acidity of vapor plume from cooling tower mixed with flue gases emitted from coal-fired power plant.

PubMed

Hlawiczka, Stanislaw; Korszun, Katarzyna; Fudala, Janina

2016-06-01

Acidity of products resulting from the reaction of flue gas components emitted from a coal-fired power plant with water contained in a vapor plume from a wet cooling tower was analyzed in a close vicinity of a power plant (710 m from the stack and 315 m from the cooling tower). Samples of this mixture were collected using a precipitation funnel where components of the mixed plumes were discharged from the atmosphere with the rainfall. To identify situations when the precipitation occurred at the same time as the wind directed the mixed vapor and flue gas plumes above the precipitation funnel, an ultrasound anemometer designed for 3D measurements of the wind field located near the funnel was used. Precipitation samples of extremely high acidity were identified - about 5% of samples collected during 12 months showed the acidity below pH=3 and the lowest recorded pH was 1.4. During the measurement period the value of pH characterizing the background acidity of the precipitation was about 6. The main outcome of this study was to demonstrate a very high, and so far completely underestimated, potential of occurrence of episodes of extremely acid depositions in the immediate vicinity of a coal-fired power plant. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ground Clutter as a Monitor of Radar Stability at Kwajalein,RMI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silberstein, David S.; Wolff, David B.; Marks, David A.; Atlas, David; Pippitt, Jason L.

2007-01-01

There are many applications in which the absolute and day-to-day calibration of radar sensitivity is necessary. This is particularly so in the case of quantitative radar measurements of precipitation. While absolute calibrations can be done periodically using solar radiation, variations that occur between such absolute checks are required to maintain the accuracy of the data. The authors have developed a method for h s purpose using the radar on Kwajalein Atoll, which has been used to provide a baseline calibration for control of measurements of rainfall made by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 0T.he method u ses echoes from a multiplicity of ground targets. The average clutter echoes at the lowest elevation scan have been found to be remarkably stable from hour to hour, day to day, and month to month within better than +1 dB. They vary significantly only after either deliberate system modifications, equipment failure or unknown causes. A cumulative probability distribution of echo reflectivities (Ze in dBZ) is obtained on a daily basis. This CDF includes both the precipitation and clutter echoes. Because the precipitation echoes at Kwajalein rarely exceed 45 dBZ, selecting an upper percentile of the CDF associated with intense clutter reflectivities permits monitoring of radar stability. The reflectivity level at which the CDF attains 95% is our reference. Daily measurements of the CDFs have been made since August 1999 and have been used to correct the 7 M years of measurements and thus enhance the integrity of the global record of precipitation observed by TRMM. The method also has potential applicability to other pound radar sites.

On the effects of wildfires on precipitation in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, Fernando; Okin, Gregory S.; Xue, Yongkang; Dintwe, Kebonye

2018-03-01

This study investigates the impact of wildfire on the climate of Southern Africa. Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer derived burned area fraction data was implemented in a set of simulations to assess primarily the role of wildfire-induced surface changes on monthly precipitation. Two post-fire scenarios are examined namely non-recovering and recovering vegetation scenarios. In the former, burned vegetation fraction remains burned until the end of the simulations, whereas in the latter it is allowed to regrow following a recovery period. Control simulations revealed that the model can dependably capture the monthly precipitation and surface temperature averages in Southern Africa thus providing a reasonable basis against which to assess the impacts of wildfire. In general, both wildfire scenarios have a negative impact on springtime precipitation. September and October were the only months with statistically significant precipitation changes. During these months, precipitation in the region decreases by approximately 13 and 9% in the non-recovering vegetation scenario, and by about 10 and 6% in the recovering vegetation wildfire scenario, respectively. The primary cause of precipitation deficit is the decrease in evapotranspiration resulting from a reduction in surface net radiation. Areas impacted by the precipitation reduction includes the Luanda, Kinshasa, and Brazzaville metropolitan areas, The Angolan Highlands, which are the source of the Okavango Rive, and the Okavango Delta region. This study suggests that a probable intensification in wildfire frequency and extent resulting from projected population increase and global warming in Southern Africa could potentially exacerbate the impacts of wildfires in the region's seasonal precipitation.

The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Cook, B. I.; Smerdon, J. E.; Bishop, D. A.; Seager, R.; Mankin, J. S.

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States (SE US) drought in fall 2016 appeared exceptional based on its wildfire and water-supply impacts but the current monitoring framework does not readily facilitate evaluation of moisture-balance anomalies in a centennial context. A new method to extend modeled soil-moisture records back to 1895 is developed using monthly climate data. Since 1895, October-November 2016 soil moisture (0-200 cm) in the SE US was likely the second lowest on record, behind 1954. This severe drought developed rapidly and was brought on by near record-low September-November precipitation and record-high September-November daily maximum temperatures (Tmax). Record Tmax drove record-high atmospheric moisture demand, accounting for 28% of the October-November 2016 soil-moisture anomaly. Drought and heat in fall 2016 contrasted strongly with 20th-century wetting and cooling trends, with few analogs after the mid-1950s. Dynamically, the exceptional drying in fall 2016 was driven by anomalous ridging over the central United States that reduced south-southwesterly moisture transports into the SE US by approximately 75%. These circulation anomalies were promoted by moderate La Niña conditions and warmth in the tropical North Atlantic, but these processes did not account for a majority of the SE US drying in fall 2016 and therefore imply a large role for internal atmospheric variability. The extended analysis back to 1895 indicates that SE US droughts as strong as the 2016 event are more likely than indicated from a shorter 60-year perspective, and continued multi-decadal swings in precipitation may combine with future warming to further enhance the likelihood of such events.

Exploring the new long-term (150 years) precipitation dataset in Azores archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Armand; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Kutiel, Haim; Valente, Maria A.; Sigró, Javier

2015-04-01

Within the scope of the two major international projects of long-term reanalysis for the 20th century coordinated by NOAA (Compo et al. 2011) and ECMWF (Hersbach et al. 2013) the IDL Institute from the University of Lisbon has digitized a large number of long-term stations records from Portugal and former Portuguese Colonies (Stickler et al. 2014). Recently we have finished the digitization of all precipitation values from Ponta Delgada (capital of the Azores archipelago) obtaining an uninterrupted precipitation monthly time series since 1864 and additionally an almost complete corresponding daily precipitation series, with the exception of some years (1864/1872; 1878/1879; 1888/1905; 1931; 1936 and 1938) for which only monthly values are available. Here, we present an annually, seasonally and daily resolution study of the rainfall regime in Ponta Delgada for the last 150 years and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influence over this precipitation regime. The distribution of precipitation presents an evident seasonal pattern, with a strong difference between the 'rainy season' (November/March) and the 'dry season' (June/August) with very little rainfall. April/May and September/October correspond to the transitional seasons. The mean annual rainfall in Ponta Delgada is approximately 910 mm and is accumulated (on average) in about 120 rainy days. The precipitation regime in Azores archipelago reveals large inter-annual and intra-annual variability and both have increased considerably in the last decades. The entire studied period (1865-2012) shows an increase in the rainfall conditions between a drier earlier period (1865-1938) and a wetter recent period (1939-2012). At daily resolution, we have used an approach based on different characteristics of rain spells (consecutive days with rainfall accumulation) that has been proved to be satisfactory for the analysis of the different parameters related to the rainfall regime (Kutiel and Trigo, 2014). This approach shows that the increase in precipitation is mainly due to more intense events which are reflected by higher rain spell yields (amount of precipitation) and rain spell intensity (amount of precipitation by day) values in the last decades. On the other hand, despite the fact that one of the most widely used NAO definitions includes sea level pressure from the Ponta Delgada station, its long-term impact on the Azores archipelago climate is not well established yet. Here, we assessed the NAO influence over the precipitation regime according to Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. Results show that the inter-annual variability of precipitation is largely modulated by the NAO mode. Correlation values of r=-0.90, r=-0.79 and r=-0.63 were obtained for years with positive (>1) or negative (

A process to estimate net infiltration using a site-scale water-budget approach, Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, 2002–05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David W.; Moreo, Michael T.; Garcia, C. Amanda; Halford, Keith J.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

2017-08-29

This report documents a process used to estimate net infiltration from precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil data acquired at two sites on Rainier Mesa. Rainier Mesa is a groundwater recharge area within the Nevada National Security Site where recharged water flows through bedrock fractures to a deep (450 meters) water table. The U.S. Geological Survey operated two ET stations on Rainier Mesa from 2002 to 2005 at sites characterized by pinyon-juniper and scrub-brush vegetative cover. Precipitation and ET data were corrected to remove measurement biases and gap-filled to develop continuous datasets. Net infiltration (percolation below the root zone) and changes in root-zone water storage were estimated using a monthly water-balance model.Site-scale water-budget results indicate that the heavily-fractured welded-tuff bedrock underlying thin (<40 centimeters) topsoil is a critical water source for vegetation during dry periods. Annual precipitation during the study period ranged from fourth lowest (182 millimeters [mm]) to second highest (708 mm) on record (record = 55 years). Annual ET exceeded precipitation during dry years, indicating that the fractured-bedrock reservoir capacity is sufficient to meet atmospheric-evaporative demands and to sustain vegetation through extended dry periods. Net infiltration (82 mm) was simulated during the wet year after the reservoir was rapidly filled to capacity. These results support previous conclusions that preferential fracture flow was induced, resulting in an episodic recharge pulse that was detected in nearby monitoring wells. The occurrence of net infiltration only during the wet year is consistent with detections of water-level rises in nearby monitoring wells that occur only following wet years.

A Bat's-Eye View of Holocene Climate Change in the Southwest: Resolving Ambiguities in Cave Isotopic Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, J. E.; Truebe, S. A.; Harrington, M. D.; Woodhead, J. D.; Overpeck, J. T.; Hlohowskyj, S.; Henderson, G. M.

2015-12-01

In dry environments, speleothems provide an outstanding archive of information on past climate change, particularly since lakes are typically absent or intermittent. Speleothem stable isotopes are widely used for climate reconstruction, but the isotope-climate relationship is complex in arid-region precipitation, and within-cave processes further complicate climate interpretations. Our isotope results from 3 southeastern Arizona caves, spanning the past 3.5-12 kyr, collectively indicate a weakening monsoon from 7kyr to present. These records exhibit substantial multidecadal-multicentury variability that is sometimes shared, and sometimes independent among caves. Strategies to overcome ambiguities in isotope records include long-term monitoring of cave dripwaters, multi-site comparisons, and multiproxy measurements. Monthly dripwater measurements from two caves spanning several years highlight substantial seasonal biases that create distinct differences in the climate sensitivity of individual cave records. These biases can lead to lack of correlation between records, but also creates opportunities for seasonally specific moisture reconstructions. New preliminary analyses suggest that elemental data can help to unravel the multivariate signal contained in speleothem oxygen isotope records.

A 17-year record of environmental tracers in spring discharge, Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA: use of climatic data and environmental conditions to interpret discharge, dissolved solutes, and tracer concentrations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busenberg, Eurybiades; Plummer, Niel

2014-01-01

A 17-year record (1995–2012) of a suite of environmental tracer concentrations in discharge from 34 springs located along the crest of the Blue Ridge Mountains in Shenandoah National Park (SNP), Virginia, USA, reveals patterns and trends that can be related to climatic and environmental conditions. These data include a 12-year time series of monthly sampling at five springs, with measurements of temperature, specific conductance, pH, and discharge recorded at 30-min intervals. The monthly measurements include age tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CFC-13, SF6, and SF5CF3), dissolved gases (N2, O2, Ar, CO2, and CH4), stable isotopes of water, and major and trace inorganic constituents. The chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) concentrations (in pptv) in spring discharge closely follow the concurrent monthly measurements of their atmospheric mixing ratios measured at the Air Monitoring Station at Big Meadows, SNP, indicating waters 0–3 years in age. A 2-year (2001–2003) record of unsaturated zone air displayed seasonal deviations from North American Air of ±10 % for CFC-11 and CFC-113, with excess CFC-11 and CFC-113 in peak summer and depletion in peak winter. The pattern in unsaturated zone soil CFCs is a function of gas solubility in soil water and seasonal unsaturated zone temperatures. Using the increase in the SF6 atmospheric mixing ratio, the apparent (piston flow) SF6 age of the water varied seasonally between about 0 (modern) in January and up to 3 years in July–August. The SF6 concentration and concentrations of dissolved solutes (SiO2, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, Cl−, and HCO3−) in spring discharge demonstrate a fraction of recent recharge following large precipitation events. The output of solutes in the discharge of springs minus the input from atmospheric deposition per hectare of watershed area (mol ha−1 a−1) were approximately twofold greater in watersheds draining the regolith of Catoctin metabasalts than that of granitic gneisses and granitoid crystalline rocks. The stable isotopic composition of water in spring discharge broadly correlates with the Oceanic Niño Index. Below normal precipitation and enriched stable isotopic composition were observed during El Niño years.

Extreme daily precipitation: the case of Serbia in 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tošić, Ivana; Unkašević, Miroslava; Putniković, Suzana

2017-05-01

The extreme daily precipitation in Serbia was examined at 16 stations during the period 1961-2014. Two synoptic situations in May and September of 2014 were analysed, when extreme precipitation was recorded in western and eastern Serbia, respectively. The synoptic situation from 14 to 16 May 2014 remained nearly stationary over the western and central Serbia for the entire period. On 15 May 2014, the daily rainfall broke previous historical records in Belgrade (109.8 mm), Valjevo (108.2 mm) and Loznica (110 mm). Precipitation exceeded 200 mm in 72 h, producing the most catastrophic floods in the recent history of Serbia. In Negotin (eastern Serbia), daily precipitation of 161.3 mm was registered on 16 September 2014, which was the maximum value recorded during the period 1961-2014. The daily maximum in 2014 was registered at 6 out of 16 stations. The total annual precipitation for 2014 was the highest for the period 1961-2014 at almost all stations in Serbia. A non-significant positive trend was found for all precipitation indices: annual daily maximum precipitation, the total precipitation in consecutive 3 and 5 days, the total annual precipitation, and number of days with at least 10 and 20 mm of precipitation. The generalised extreme value distribution was fitted to the annual daily maximum precipitation. The estimated 100-year return levels were 123.4 and 147.4 mm for the annual daily maximum precipitation in Belgrade and Negotin, respectively.

USSR and Eastern Europe Scientific Abstracts Geophysics, Astronomy and Space No. 404

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-09-01

atmospheric circulation. A reliable linear correlation was established between the monthly fallout activity of 10^Ru + -^Rh and monthly precipitation and...therefore the washing out of this radionuclide from tropospheric air by precipitation is more important for its fallout. [153] ANALYTICAL...development of some methods for predicting definite weather phenomena (such as precipitation ), taking into account the evolution of the

Assess Climate Change's Impact on Coastal Rivers using a Coupled Climate-Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Z. G.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; Zang, Z.; Sampson, K. M.; Keim, B. D.

2016-12-01

In this study we present a coupled climate-hydrological model reproducing the water cycle of three coastal river basins along the northern Gulf of Mexico for the past three decades (1985-2014). Model simulated climate condition, surface physics, and streamflow were well validated against in situ data and satellite-derived products, giving us the confidence that the newly developed WRF-Hydro model can be a robust tool for evaluating climate change's impact on hydrological regime. Trend analysis of model simulated monthly and annual time series indicates that local climate is getting hotter and dryer, specifically during the growing season. Wavelet analysis reveals that local evapotranspiration is strongly correlated with temperature, while soil moisture, water surplus, and streamflow are coupled with precipitation. In addition, local climate is closely correlated with large-scale climate dynamics such as AMO and ENSO. A possible change-point is detected around year 2004, after which, the monthly precipitation decreased by 14.2%, evapotranspiration increased by 2.9%, and water surplus decreased by 36.5%. The implication of the difference between the water surplus (runoff) calculated using the classic Thornthwaite method and river discharge estimated using streamflow records to the coastal environment is also discussed.

Magnesium isotope fractionation in bacterial mediated carbonate precipitation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, I. J.; Pearce, C. R.; Polacskek, T.; Cockell, C.; Hammond, S. J.

2012-12-01

Magnesium is an essential component of life, with pivotal roles in the generation of cellular energy as well as in plant chlorophyll [1]. The bio-geochemical cycling of Mg is associated with mass dependant fractionation (MDF) of the three stable Mg isotopes [1]. The largest MDF of Mg isotopes has been recorded in carbonates, with foraminiferal tests having δ26Mg compositions up to 5 ‰ lighter than modern seawater [2]. Magnesium isotopes may also be fractionated during bacterially mediated carbonate precipitation and such carbonates are known to have formed in both modern and ancient Earth surface environments [3, 4], with cyanobacteria having a dominant role in carbonate formation during the Archean. In this study, we aim to better constrain the extent to which Mg isotope fractionation occurs during cellular processes, and to identify when, and how, this signal is transferred to carbonates. To this end we have undertaken biologically-mediated carbonate precipitation experiments that were performed in artificial seawater, but with the molar Mg/Ca ratio set to 0.6 and with the solution spiked with 0.4% yeast extract. The bacterial strain used was marine isolate Halomonas sp. (gram-negative). Experiments were run in the dark at 21 degree C for two to three months and produced carbonate spheres of various sizes up to 300 μm in diameter, but with the majority have diameters of ~100 μm. Control experiments run in sterile controls (`empty` medium without bacteria) yielded no precipitates, indicating a bacterial control on the precipitation. The carbonate spheres are produced are amenable to SEM, EMP and Mg isotopic analysis by MC-ICP-MS. Our new data will shed light on tracing bacterial signals in carbonates from the geological record. [1] Young & Galy (2004). Rev. Min. Geochem. 55, p197-230. [2] Pogge von Strandmann (2008). Geochem. Geophys. Geosys. 9 DOI:10.1029/2008GC002209. [3] Castanier, et al. (1999). Sed. Geol. 126, 9-23. [4] Cacchio, et al. (2003). Geomicrobiol. J. 20, 85-98.

Dust emission at Franklin Lake Playa, Mojave Desert (USA): Response to meteorological and hydrologic changes 2005-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Richard L.; Bogle, Rian; Vogel, John; Goldstein, Harland L.; Yount, James

2009-01-01

Playa type, size, and setting; playa hydrology; and surface-sediment characteristics are important controls on the type and amount of atmospheric dust emitted from playas. Soft, evaporite-rich sediment develops on the surfaces of some Mojave Desert (USA) playas (wet playas), where the water table is shallow (< 4 m). These areas are sources of atmospheric dust because of continuous or episodic replenishment of wind-erodible salts and disruption of the ground surface during salt formation by evaporation of ground water. Dust emission at Franklin Lake playa was monitored between March 2005 and April 2008. The dust record, based on day-time remote digital camera images captured during high wind, and compared with a nearby precipitation record, shows that aridity suppresses dust emission. High frequency of dust generation appears to be associated with relatively wet periods, identified as either heavy precipitation events or sustained regional precipitation over a few months. Several factors may act separately or in combination to account for this relation. Dust emission may respond rapidly to heavy precipitation when the dissolution of hard, wind-resistant evaporite mineral crusts is followed by the development of soft surfaces with thin, newly formed crusts that are vulnerable to wind erosion and (or) the production of loose aggregates of evaporite minerals that are quickly removed by even moderate winds. Dust loading may also increase when relatively high regional precipitation leads to decreasing depth to the water table, thereby increasing rates of vapor discharge, development of evaporite minerals, and temporary softening of playa surfaces. The seasonality of wind strength was not a major factor in dust-storm frequency at the playa. The lack of major dust emissions related to flood-derived sediment at Franklin Lake playa contrasts with some dry-lake systems elsewhere that may produce large amounts of dust from flood sediments. Flood sediments do not commonly accumulate on the surface of Franklin Lake playa because through-going drainage prevents frequent inundation and deposition of widespread flood sediment.

[Seasonality of rotavirus infection in Venezuela: relationship between monthly rotavirus incidence and rainfall rates].

PubMed

González Chávez, Rosabel

2015-09-01

In general, it has been reported that rotavirus infection was detected year round in tropical countries. However, studies in Venezuela and Brazil suggest a seasonal behavior of the infection. On the other hand, some studies link infection with climatic variables such as rainfall. This study analyzes the pattern of behavior of the rotavirus infection in Carabobo-Venezuela (2001-2005), associates the seasonality of the infection with rainfall, and according to the seasonal pattern, estimates the age of greatest risk for infection. The analysis of the rotavirus temporal series and accumulated precipitation was performed with the software SPSS. The infection showed two periods: high incidence (November-April) and low incidence (May-October). Accumulated precipitation presents an opposite behavior. The highest frequency of events (73.8% 573/779) for those born in the period with a low incidence of the virus was recorded at an earlier age (mean age 6.5 +/- 2.0 months) when compared with those born in the station of high incidence (63.5% 568/870, mean age 11.7 +/- 2.2 months). Seasonality of the infection and the inverse relationship between virus incidence and rainfall was demonstrated. In addition, it was found that the period of birth determines the age and risk of infection. This information generated during the preaccine period will be helpful to measure the impact of the vaccine against the rotavirus.

United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN) monthly temperature and precipitation data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniels, R.C.; Boden, T.A.; Easterling, D.R.

1996-01-11

This document describes a database containing monthly temperature and precipitation data for 1221 stations in the contiguous United States. This network of stations, known as the United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN), and the resulting database were compiled by the National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina. These data represent the best available data from the United States for analyzing long-term climate trends on a regional scale. The data for most stations extend through December 31, 1994, and a majority of the station records are serially complete for at least 80 years. Unlike many data sets that have beenmore » used in past climate studies, these data have been adjusted to remove biases introduced by station moves, instrument changes, time-of-observation differences, and urbanization effects. These monthly data are available free of charge as a numeric data package (NDP) from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. The NDP includes this document and 27 machine-readable data files consisting of supporting data files, a descriptive file, and computer access codes. This document describes how the stations in the US HCN were selected and how the data were processed, defines limitations and restrictions of the data, describes the format and contents of the magnetic media, and provides reprints of literature that discuss the editing and adjustment techniques used in the US HCN.« less

Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the fivemore » ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.« less

Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiao-Ming; Xue, Ming; McPherson, Renee A.; Martin, Elinor; Rosendahl, Derek H.; Qiao, Lei

2018-02-01

Detailed, regional climate projections, particularly for precipitation, are critical for many applications. Accurate precipitation downscaling in the United States Great Plains remains a great challenge for most Regional Climate Models, particularly for warm months. Most previous dynamic downscaling simulations significantly underestimate warm-season precipitation in the region. This study aims to achieve a better precipitation downscaling in the Great Plains with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. To this end, WRF simulations with different physics schemes and nudging strategies are first conducted for a representative warm season. Results show that different cumulus schemes lead to more pronounced difference in simulated precipitation than other tested physics schemes. Simply choosing different physics schemes is not enough to alleviate the dry bias over the southern Great Plains, which is related to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the central and western parts of continental U.S. in the simulations. Spectral nudging emerges as an effective solution for alleviating the precipitation bias. Spectral nudging ensures that large and synoptic-scale circulations are faithfully reproduced while still allowing WRF to develop small-scale dynamics, thus effectively suppressing the large-scale circulation anomaly in the downscaling. As a result, a better precipitation downscaling is achieved. With the carefully validated configurations, WRF downscaling is conducted for 1980-2015. The downscaling captures well the spatial distribution of monthly climatology precipitation and the monthly/yearly variability, showing improvement over at least two previously published precipitation downscaling studies. With the improved precipitation downscaling, a better hydrological simulation over the trans-state Oologah watershed is also achieved.

Ground-water levels and precipitation data at the Maxey Flats low-level radioactive waste disposal site near Morehead, Kentucky, October 1988-September 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zettwoch, Douglas D.

2002-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet--Department for Environmental Protection--Division of Waste Management, has an ongoing program to monitor water levels at the Maxey Flats low-level radioactive waste disposal site near Morehead, Kentucky. Ground-water-level and precipitation data were collected from 112 wells and 1 rain gage at the Maxey Flats low-level radioactive waste disposal site during October 1988-September 2000. Data were collected on a semi-annual basis from 62 wells, continuously from 6 wells, and monthly or bimonthly from 44 wells (13 of which had continuous recorders installed for the period October 1998-September 2000). One tipping-bucket rain gage was used to collect data at the Maxey Flats site for the period October 1988-September 2000.

Synoptic controls on precipitation pathways and snow delivery to high-accumulation ice core sites in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, K. E.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Trompetter, W. J.

2010-11-01

Dominant storm tracks to two ice core sites on the western margin of the Ross Sea, Antarctica (Skinner Saddle (SKS) and Evans Piedmont Glacier), are investigated to establish key synoptic controls on snow accumulation. This is critical in terms of understanding the seasonality, source regions, and transport pathways of precipitation delivered to these sites. In situ snow depth and meteorological observations are used to identify major accumulation events in 2007-2008, which differ considerably between sites in terms of their magnitude and seasonal distribution. While snowfall at Evans Piedmont Glacier occurs almost exclusively during summer and spring, Skinner Saddle receives precipitation year round with a lull during the months of April and May. Cluster analysis of daily back trajectories reveals that the highest-accumulation days at both sites result from fast-moving air masses, associated with synoptic-scale low-pressure systems. There is evidence that short-duration pulses of snowfall at SKS also originate from mesocyclone development over the Ross Ice Shelf and local moisture sources. Changes in the frequency and seasonal distribution of these mechanisms of precipitation delivery will have a marked impact on annual accumulation over time and will therefore need careful consideration during the interpretation of stable isotope and geochemical records from these ice cores.

Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation cover (C-factor) maps would enable the assessment of seasonal dynamics of erosion processes in Switzerland.

The HOAPS Climatology V4: updates and results from comparisons to various satellite, buoy and ship data records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, Marc; Graw, Kathrin; Andersson, Axel; Fennig, Karsten; Bakan, Stephan; Klepp, Christian

2017-04-01

The global water cycle is a key component of the global climate system as it describes and links many important processes such as evaporation, convection, cloud formation and precipitation. Through latent heat release, it is also closely connected to the global energy cycle and its changes. The difference between precipitation and evaporation yields the freshwater flux, which indicates if a particular region of the earth receives more water through precipitation than it loses through evaporation or vice versa. On global scale and long time periods, however, the amounts of evaporation and precipitation are balanced. A profound understanding of the water cycle is therefore a key prerequisite for successful climate modelling. The Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS) set is a fully satellite based climatology of precipitation, evaporation and freshwater budget as well as related turbulent heat fluxes and atmospheric state variables over the global ice free oceans. All geophysical parameters are derived from passive microwave radiometers, except for the SST, which is taken from AVHRR measurements based on thermal emission of the Earth. Starting with the release 3.1, the HOAPS climate data record is hosted by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) and the further development is shared with the University of Hamburg and the MPI-M. While the HOAPS release 3.2 in 2012 covered the entire record of the passive microwave radiometer SSM/I, the new version of the HOAPS data set, version 4, includes also the SSMIS record up to December 2014 and uncertainty estimates for parameters related to evaporation. These HOAPS data products are available as monthly averages and 6-hourly composites on a regular latitude/longitude grid with a spatial resolution of 0.5° x 0.5° from July 1987 to December 2014 (December 2008 for HOAPS3.2). Covering nearly 28 years the new HOAPS data set is highly valuable for climate applications. The data can be retrieved from the CM SAF web user interface http://wui.cmsaf.eu and from http://www.hoaps.org. The presentation will cover details of the HOAPS-4 release, recent enhancements as well as future plans for the further development of the HOAPS data set. E.g., for the integrated water vapour and the near surface wind speed product, a new 1D-Var based retrieval was developed. We show the differences between the statistical retrievals used in HOAPS-3.2 compared to the new HOAPS-4 products, results from comparisons to various satellite-based data records and results from comparisons to buoy and ship observations. A specific focus is on the assessment of the stability and uncertainties.

Pluviometric characterization of the Coca river basin by using a stochastic rainfall model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Zeas, Dunia; Chávez-Jiménez, Adriadna; Coello-Rubio, Xavier; Correa, Ángel; Martínez-Codina, Ángela

2014-05-01

An adequate design of the hydraulic infrastructures, as well as, the prediction and simulation of a river basin require historical records with a greater temporal and spatial resolution. However, the lack of an extensive network of precipitation data, the short time scale data and the incomplete information provided by the available rainfall stations limit the analysis and design of complex hydraulic engineering systems. As a consequence, it is necessary to develop new quantitative tools in order to face this obstacle imposed by ungauged or poorly gauged basins. In this context, the use of a spatial-temporal rainfall model allows to simulate the historical behavior of the precipitation and at the same time, to obtain long-term synthetic series that preserve the extremal behavior. This paper provides a characterization of the precipitation in the Coca river basin located in Ecuador by using RainSim V3, a robust and well tested stochastic rainfall model based on a spatial-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses process. A preliminary consistency analysis of the historical rainfall data available has been done in order to identify climatic regions with similar precipitation behavior patterns. Mean and maximum yearly and monthly fields of precipitation of high resolution spaced grids have been obtained through the use of interpolation techniques. According to the climatological similarity, long time series of daily temporal resolution of precipitation have been generated in order to evaluate the model skill in capturing the structure of daily observed precipitation. The results show a good performance of the model in reproducing very well the gross statistics, including the extreme values of rainfall at daily scale. The spatial pattern represented by the observed and simulated precipitation fields highlights the existence of two important regions characterized by different pluviometric comportment, with lower precipitation in the upper part of the basin and higher precipitation in the lower part of the basin.

Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several mountainous areas as suggested by paleoclimatic evidence. Modern analogues of past climates supplement modeling approaches by providing information below the resolution of model simulations. Analogues can be used to examine the controls of spatial paleoclimatic variation if sufficient instrumental data and paleoclimatic evidence are available, and if one carefully exercises uniformitarianism when extrapolating modern relationships to the past.

Holocene Multi-Decadal to Millennial-Scale Hydrologic Variability on the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Burns, S.

2006-12-01

On orbital timescales, lacustrine sediment records in the tropical central Andes show massive changes in lake level due to mechanisms related to global-scale drivers, varying at precessional timescales. Here we use stable isotopic and diatom records from two lakes in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin to reconstruct multi- decadal to millennial scale precipitation variability during the last 7000 to 8000 years. The records are tightly coupled at multi-decadal to millennial scales with each other and with lake-level fluctuations in Lake Titicaca, indicating that the lakes are recording a regional climate signal. A quantitative reconstruction of precipitation from stable isotopic data indicates that the central Andes underwent significant wet to dry alternations at multi- centennial frequencies with an amplitude of 30 to 40% of total precipitation. A strong millennial-scale component, similar in duration to periods of increased ice rafted debris flux in the North Atlantic, is observed in both lake records, suggesting that tropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variability may partly control regional precipitation. No clear relationship is evident between these records and the inferred ENSO history from Lago Pallcacocha in the northern tropical Andes. In the instrumental period, regional precipitation variability on inter-annual timescales is clearly influenced by Pacific modes; for example, most El Ninos produce dry and warm conditions in this part of the central Andes. However, on longer timescales, the control of tropical Pacific modes is less clear. Our reconstructions suggest that the cold intervals of the Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation in the central Andes, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation in the southern tropics of South America relative to the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region.

Results of the recent precipitation static flight test program on the Navy P-3B antisubmarine aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitaker, Mike

1991-01-01

Severe precipitation static problems affecting the communication equipment onboard the P-3B aircraft were recently studied. The study was conducted after precipitation static created potential safety-of-flight problems on Naval Reserve aircraft. A specially designed flight test program was conducted in order to measure, record, analyze, and characterize potential precipitation static problem areas. The test program successfully characterized the precipitation static interference problems while the P-3B was flown in moderate to extreme precipitation conditions. Data up to 400 MHz were collected on the effects of engine charging, precipitation static, and extreme cross fields. These data were collected using a computer controlled acquisition system consisting of a signal generator, RF spectrum and audio analyzers, data recorders, and instrumented static dischargers. The test program is outlined and the computer controlled data acquisition system is described in detail which was used during flight and ground testing. The correlation of test results is also discussed which were recorded during the flight test program and those measured during ground testing.

Groundwater level responses to precipitation variability in Mediterranean insular aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; Garcia, Celso; Morán-Tejeda, Enrique

2017-09-01

Groundwater is one of the largest and most important sources of fresh water on many regions under Mediterranean climate conditions, which are exposed to large precipitation variability that includes frequent meteorological drought episodes, and present high evapotranspiration rates and water demand during the dry season. The dependence on groundwater increases in those areas with predominant permeable lithologies, contributing to aquifer recharge and the abundance of ephemeral streams. The increasing pressure of tourism on water resources in many Mediterranean coastal areas, and uncertainty related to future precipitation and water availability, make it urgent to understand the spatio-temporal response of groundwater bodies to precipitation variability, if sustainable use of the resource is to be achieved. We present an assessment of the response of aquifers to precipitation variability based on correlations between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at various time scales and the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) across a Mediterranean island. We detected three main responses of aquifers to accumulated precipitation anomalies: (i) at short time scales of the SPI (<6 months); (ii) at medium time scales (6-24 months); and at long time scales (>24 months). The differing responses were mainly explained by differences in lithology and the percentage of highly permeable rock strata in the aquifer recharge areas. We also identified differences in the months and seasons when aquifer storages are more dependent on precipitation; these were related to climate seasonality and the degree of aquifer exploitation or underground water extraction. The recharge of some aquifers, especially in mountainous areas, is related to precipitation variability within a limited spatial extent, whereas for aquifers located in the plains, precipitation variability influence much larger areas; the topography and geological structure of the island explain these differences. Results indicate large spatial variability in the response of aquifers to precipitation in a very small area, highlighting the importance of having high spatial resolution hydro-climatic databases available to enable full understanding of the effects of climate variability on scarce water resources.

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

The predictability of Iowa's hydroclimate through analog forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, Scott Thomas

Iowa has long been affected by periods characterized by extreme drought and flood. In 2008, Cedar Rapids, Iowa was devastated by a record flood with damages around 3 billion. Several years later, Iowa was affected by severe drought in 2012, causing upwards of 30 billion in damages and losses across the United States. These climatic regimes can quickly transition from one regime to another, as was observed in the June 2013 major floods to the late summer 2013 severe drought across eastern Iowa. Though it is not possible to prevent a natural disaster from occurring, we explore how predictable these events are by using forecast models and analogs. Iowa's climate records are analyzed from 1950 to 2012 to determine if there are specific surface and upper-air pressure patterns linked to climate regimes (i.e., cold/hot and dry/wet conditions for a given month). We found that opposing climate regimes in Iowa have reversed anomalies in certain geographical regions of the northern hemisphere. These defined patterns and waves suggested to us that it could be possible to forecast extreme temperature and precipitation periods over Iowa if given a skillful forecast system. We examined the CMC, COLA, and GFDL models within the National Multi-Model Ensemble suite to create analog forecasts based on either surface or upper-air pressure forecasts. The verification results show that some analogs have predictability skill at the 0.5-month lead time exceeding random chance, but our overall confidence in the analog forecasts is not high enough to allow us to issue statewide categorical temperature and precipitation climate forecasts.

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE PAGES

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; ...

2017-05-16

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

Variations of annual and seasonal runoff in Guangdong Province, south China: spatiotemporal patterns and possible causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Xiao, Mingzhong; Singh, Vijay P.; Xu, Chong-Yu; Li, Jianfeng

2015-06-01

In this study, we thoroughly analyzed spatial and temporal distributions of runoff and their relation with precipitation changes based on monthly runoff dataset at 25 hydrological stations and monthly precipitation at 127 stations in Guangdong Province, south China. Trends of the runoff and precipitation are detected using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. Correlations between runoff and precipitation are tested using Spearman's and Pearson's correlation coefficients. The results indicate that: (1) annual maximum monthly runoff is mainly in decreasing tendency and significant increasing annual minimum monthly runoff is observed in the northern and eastern Guangdong Province. In addition, annual mean runoff is observed to be increasing at the stations located in the West and North Rivers and the coastal region; (2) analysis of seasonal runoff variations indicates increasing runoff in spring, autumn and winter. Wherein, significant increase of runoff is found at 8 stations and only 3 stations are dominated by decreasing runoff in winter; (3) runoff changes of the Guangdong Province are mainly the results of precipitation changes. The Guangdong Province is wetter in winter, spring and autumn. Summer is coming to be drier as reflected by decreasing runoff in the season; (4) both precipitation change and water reservoirs also play important roles in the increasing of annual minimum monthly streamflow. Seasonal shifts of runoff variations may pose new challenges for the water resources management under the influences of climate changes and intensifying human activities.

Linking the isotopic composition of monthly precipitation, cave drip water and tree ring cellulose - 15 years of monitoring and data-model comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labuhn, Inga; Genty, Dominique; Daux, Valérie; Bourges, François; Hoffmann, Georg

2013-04-01

The isotopic composition of proxies used for palaeoclimate reconstruction, like tree ring cellulose or speleothem calcite, is controlled to a large extent by the isotopic composition of precipitation. In order to calibrate and interpret these proxies in terms of climate, it is necessary to study water isotopes in rainfall and their link with the proxies' source water. We present 10 to 15-year series of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in monthly precipitation from three sites in the south of France, along with corresponding REMOiso model simulations, a monitoring of cave drip water from two of these sites (Villars cave in the south-west and Chauvet cave in the south-east), as well as measurements of oxygen isotopes in tree ring cellulose from oak trees growing in the same area. The isotopic composition of monthly precipitation at the three sites displays a typical annual cycle. At the south-west sites, under Atlantic influence, the interannual variability is much more pronounced during the winter months than during the summer, whereas the south-eastern Mediterranean site shows the same variability throughout the year. The model simulations are able to reproduce the annual cycle of monthly precipitation δ18O as well as the intra-seasonal variability. Compared to the data, however, the modelled average isotopic values and the seasonal amplitude are overestimated. Correlations between temperature and precipitation δ18O are generally weak at all our sites, on both the monthly and the annual scale, even when using temperature averages weighted by the amount of precipitation. Consequently, a proxy which is controlled by the δ18O of precipitation cannot be directly interpreted in terms of temperature in this region. The isotopic composition of cave drip water in both caves remains stable throughout the monitoring period. By calculating different weighted averages of precipitation δ18O for time periods ranging from months to years, we demonstrate that the cave drip water isotopic composition is the result of several years of rainfall mixing. The precipitation of every month must be considered in order to attain the drip water values, which means that rain water infiltrates throughout the year. There is no modification of the soil water isotopic composition by evaporation and no seasonal bias introduced by transpiring plants; they use water from reserves which represents several months or years of mixing. For the interpretation of tree ring cellulose δ18O, this implies that - at least for the monitoring period of 15 years - the source water signal is more or less constant. Therefore, the variability of cellulose δ18O must be mainly due to evaporation at the leaf level, which is strongly dependent on summer temperature. Insights on the variability and temperature correlations of stable isotopes in precipitation and on the origin and composition of cave drip water are important for the interpretation of proxies. Long-term monitoring is needed for model validation, and the locally validated and corrected model can provide longer time series for a reliable proxy calibration.

The Vaiont Slide. A Geotechnical Analysis Based on New Geologic Observations of the Failure Surface. Volume 2. Appendices A through G

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-06-01

Al B , STATIC SLOPE ANALYSIS METHOD USED FOR THE WAONT SLIDE -ANALYSES~ty D. L. Anderson ................................... B1 C SECTIONS,,USED...years 1960, 1961, 1962 and 1963 are given in this appendix in Tables Al , A2, A3 and A4, respectively. These were supplied through the courtesy of E.N.E.L...Tables Table Al . Daily precipitation record, Erto - 1960 Table A2. Daily precipitation record, Erto - 1961 Table A3. Daily precipitation record, Erto

Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.

2017-12-01

Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

Global Precipitation at One-Degree Daily Resolution From Multi-Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Morrissey, Mark M.; Curtis, Scott; Joyce, Robert; McGavock, Brad; Susskind, Joel

2000-01-01

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) technique is described for producing globally complete daily estimates of precipitation on a 1 deg x 1 deg lat/long grid from currently available observational data. Where possible (40 deg N-40 deg S), the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI) provides precipitation estimates in which the 3-hourly infrared brightness temperatures (IR T(sub b)) are thresholded and all "cold" pixels are given a single precipitation rate. This approach is an adaptation of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index (GPI), but for the TMPI the IR Tb threshold and conditional rain rate are set locally by month from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-based precipitation frequency and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite-gauge (SG) combined monthly precipitation estimate, respectively. At higher latitudes the 1DD features a rescaled daily Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) precipitation. The frequency of rain days in the TOVS is scaled down to match that in the TMPI at the data boundaries, and the resulting non-zero TOVS values are scaled locally to sum to the SG (which is a globally complete monthly product). The time series of the daily 1DD global images shows good continuity in time and across the data boundaries. Various examples are shown to illustrate uses. Validation for individual grid -box values shows a very high root-mean-square error but, it improves quickly when users perform time/space averaging according to their own requirements.

Self-organizing map network-based precipitation regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau and regional precipitation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Nini; Yin, Jianchuan

2017-12-01

A precipitation-based regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was investigated for regional precipitation trend analysis and frequency analysis using data from 1113 grid points covering the period 1900-2014. The results utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) network suggest that four clusters of precipitation coherent zones can be identified, including the southwestern edge, the southern edge, the southeastern region, and the north central region. Regionalization results of the SOM network satisfactorily represent the influences of the atmospheric circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon, the south Asian summer monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Regionalization results also well display the direct impacts of physical geographical features of the TP such as orography, topography, and land-sea distribution. Regional-scale annual precipitation trend as well as regional differences of annual and seasonal total precipitation were investigated by precipitation index such as precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Results demonstrate significant negative long-term linear trends in southeastern TP and the north central part of the TP, indicating arid and semi-arid regions in the TP are getting drier. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method shows an evolution of the main cycle with 4 and 12 months for all the representative grids of four sub-regions. The cross-wavelet analysis suggests that predominant and effective period of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monthly precipitation is around ˜12 months, except for the representative grid of the northwestern region.

Ground-water levels in Huron County, Michigan, January 1996 through December 1996

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sweat, M.J.

1997-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a study of the hydrogeology of Huron County, Michigan (Sweat, 1991). In 1993, Huron County and the USGS entered into an agreement to continue collecting water levels at selected wells throughout Huron County. As part of the agreement, the USGS has provided training and instrumentation for County personnel to measure, on a quarterly basis, the depth to water below the land surface in selected wells. The agreement includes the operation of continuous water-level recorders installed on four wells in Bingham, Fairhaven, Grant and Lake Townships (fig. 1). County personnel make quarterly water-level measurements of 22 other wells. Once each year, County personnel are accompanied by USGS personnel who provide a quality assurance/quality control check of all measurements being made.Precipitation and the altitude of Lake Huron are good indicators of general climatic conditions and, therefore, provide an environmental context for ground-water levels in Huron County. Figure 2 shows the mean monthly water-level altitude of Lake Huron, averaged from measurements made by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at two sites, and mean monthly precipitation as recorded in Huron County, for the period October 1988 through December 1996. In general, Lake Huron water levels in 1996 were about the same as they were from 1992-94 (NOAA, 1988-96). Precipitation was generally within the normal range, but was lower than 1993 or 1994. Rainfall during May, June, and July was, cumulatively, about 8.5 inches less in 1995 than in 1994.Hydrographs are presented for each of four wells with water-level recorders. Quarterly water-level measurements and range of water levels during 1996 for the other 22 wells are shown graphically and tabulated.In general, water levels in the glaciofluvial aquifer reflect seasonal variations, with maximum depths to water occurring in late summer and early fall and minimum depths to water occurring in late winter and early spring. In general, wells completed in the lower part of the Marshall aquifer continue to show an increase in water-level altitude from the original project period (1988-90); wells completed in the upper part of the Marshall aquifer showed little variation in water-level altitudes compared to previous years. Wells completed in the Saginaw aquifer continued to show higher water level altitudes in 1995, not only near the lake but also farther inland, while water-level altitudes in wells completed in the Coldwater confining unit showed a small increase from the original project period. Water-level altitudes were higher in the southwest and central parts of the County during 1995 than in the previous year, and water-level altitudes were for the most-part unchanged in the northwest, northeast, and southeast parts of the county during 1995. All wells with recorders had lower water levels in September 1995 than in 1993-94. Lower than average precipitation during May-August is the primary reason for lower levels.

Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data for 223 Former-USSR Stations (NDP-040)

DOE Data Explorer

Razuvaev, V. N. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre; Apasova, E. B. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre; Martuganov, R. A. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre

1990-01-01

The stations in this dataset are considered by RIHMI to comprise one of the best networks suitable for temperature and precipitation monitoring over the the former-USSR. Factors involved in choosing these 223 stations included length or record, amount of missing data, and achieving reasonably good geographic coverage. There are indeed many more stations with daily data over this part of the world, and hundreds more station records are available through NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCND) database. The 223 stations comprising this database are included in GHCND, but different data processing, updating, and quality assurance methods/checks mean that the agreement between records will vary depending on the station. The relative quality and accuracy of the common station records in the two databases also cannot be easily assessed. As of this writing, most of the common stations contained in the GHCND have more recent records, but not necessarily records starting as early as the records available here. This database contains four variables: daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, and daily total precipitation (liquid equivalent). Temperature were taken three times a day from 1881-1935, four times a day from 1936-65, and eight times a day since 1966. Daily mean temperature is defined as the average of all observations for each calendar day. Daily maximum/minimum temperatures are derived from maximum/minimum thermometer measurements. See the measurement description file for further details. Daily precipitation totals are also available (to the nearest tenth of a millimeter) for each station. Throughout the record, daily precipitation is defined as the total amount of precipitation recorded during a 24-h period, snowfall being converted to a liquid total by melting the snow in the gauge. From 1936 on, rain gauges were checked several times each day; the cumulative total of all observations during a calendar day was presumably used as the daily total. Again, see the measurement description file for further details.

40 CFR 421.62 - Effluent limitations guidelines representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... precipitation for the month that falls within the impoundment and either the evaporation from the pond water... precipitation for that month that falls within the impoundment and the mean evaporation from the pond water...

40 CFR 421.62 - Effluent limitations guidelines representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... precipitation for the month that falls within the impoundment and either the evaporation from the pond water... precipitation for that month that falls within the impoundment and the mean evaporation from the pond water...

40 CFR 421.62 - Effluent limitations guidelines representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... precipitation for the month that falls within the impoundment and either the evaporation from the pond water... precipitation for that month that falls within the impoundment and the mean evaporation from the pond water...

40 CFR 421.62 - Effluent limitations guidelines representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... precipitation for the month that falls within the impoundment and either the evaporation from the pond water... precipitation for that month that falls within the impoundment and the mean evaporation from the pond water...

40 CFR 421.62 - Effluent limitations guidelines representing the degree of effluent reduction attainable by the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... precipitation for the month that falls within the impoundment and either the evaporation from the pond water... precipitation for that month that falls within the impoundment and the mean evaporation from the pond water...

Improving User Access to the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, George; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Kidd, Christopher

2016-04-01

The U.S. Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) team has developed the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) algorithm to take advantage of the international constellation of precipitation-relevant satellites and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre surface precipitation gauge analysis. The goal is to provide a long record of homogeneous, high-resolution quasi-global estimates of precipitation. While expert scientific researchers are major users of the IMERG products, it is clear that many other user communities and disciplines also desire access to the data for wide-ranging applications. Lessons learned during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, the predecessor to GPM, led to some basic design choices that provided the framework for supporting multiple user bases. For example, two near-real-time "runs" are computed, the Early and Late (currently 5 and 15 hours after observation time, respectively), then the Final Run about 3 months later. The datasets contain multiple fields that provide insight into the computation of the complete precipitation data field, as well as diagnostic (currently) estimates of the precipitation's phase. In parallel with this, the archive sites are working to provide the IMERG data in a variety of formats, and with subsetting and simple interactive analysis to make the data more easily available to non-expert users. The various options for accessing the data are summarized under the pmm.nasa.gov data access page. The talk will end by considering the feasibility of major user requests, including polar coverage, a simplified Data Quality Index, and reduced data latency for the Early Run. In brief, the first two are challenging, but under the team's control. The last requires significant action by some of the satellite data providers.

Desertification in 1957-2015 Estimated from Vegetation Coverage and Climate Conditions on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuo, L.

2017-12-01

Desert is an area that receives less than 25 cm precipitation in cold climate or 50 cm precipitation in hot climate (Miller, 1961). Others defined true desert as a region having no recorded precipitation in 12 consecutive months (McGinnies et al., 1968). According to Koppen-Gieger climate classification system, if mean annual precipitation is less than 50% of the value A calculated by mean annual temperature times 20 plus 280 if 70% or more precipitation falls in April-September, the region has desert climate; if the mean annual precipitation is within 50%-100% of the value A, the region has semi-arid or steppe climate. On the Tibetan Plateau, the above definitions will result in no desert at all or the majority of the region falling into the category of desert which is not consistent with reality based on field exploration. In this study, the fractional vegetation coverage (FPC), precipitation, soil moisture and extreme wind days are used as indices to define areas of various degrees of desertification which produces much more realistic distribution of desert areas on the plateau. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Vegetation model (LPJ) is used to simulate vegetation growth, succession and vegetation properties such as FPC and soil moisture on the Tibetan Plateau. Gridded daily climate data are generated to drive the model and to analyze the status and changes of various deserts including light desert, medium desert, severe desert, extremely severe desert and desert proned area. The study will reveal the status and changes of possible driving factors of desertification, as well as various kinds of desert on the Tibetan Plateau during 1957-2015.

Using Multiple Metrics to Analyze Trends and Sensitivity of Climate Variability in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Towey, K.; Booth, J. F.; Baez, S. D.

2017-12-01

As the overall temperature of Earth continues to warm, changes in the Earth's climate are being observed through extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation events and heat waves. This study examines the daily precipitation and temperature record of the greater New York City region during the 1979-2014 period. Daily station observations from three greater New York City airports: John F. Kennedy (JFK), LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), are used in this study. Multiple statistical metrics are used in this study to analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation in the greater New York City region. The temperature climatology reveals a distinct seasonal cycle, while the precipitation climatology exhibits greater annual variability. Two types of thresholds are used to examine the variability of extreme events: extreme threshold and daily anomaly threshold. The extreme threshold indicates how the strength of the overall maximum is changing whereas the daily anomaly threshold indicates if the strength of the daily maximum is changing over time. We observed an increase in the frequency of anomalous daily precipitation events over the last 36 years, with the greatest frequency occurring in 2011. The most extreme precipitation events occur during the months of late summer through early fall, with approximately four expected extreme events occurring per year during the summer and fall. For temperature, the greatest frequency and variation in temperature anomalies occur during winter and spring. In addition, temperature variance is also analyzed to determine if there is greater day-to-day temperature variability today than in the past.

Global Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides in 2010 Relative to Previous Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Adler, David; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides worldwide. While research has evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local or regional scales using in situ data, few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This study uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from TRMM data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurrence of precipitation and landslides globally. Evaluation of the GLC indicates that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This study characterizes the variability of satellite precipitation data and reported landslide activity at the globally scale in order to improve landslide cataloging, forecasting and quantify potential triggering sources at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steven G.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Cohen, Erika C.; Sun, Shanlei; Aldridge, Heather D.; Zhou, Decheng; Zhang, Liangxia; Zhang, Yang

2017-11-01

This study examines the relative roles of climatic variables in altering annual runoff in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century, using a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress Index model, WaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. The results suggest that precipitation has been the primary control of runoff variation during the latest decades, but the role of temperature will outweigh that of precipitation in most regions if future climate change follows the projections of climate models instead of the historical tendencies. Besides these two key factors, increasing air humidity is projected to partially offset the additional evaporative demand caused by warming and consequently enhance runoff. Overall, the projections from 20 climate models suggest a high degree of consistency on the increasing trends in temperature, precipitation, and humidity, which will be the major climatic driving factors accounting for 43-50, 20-24, and 16-23 % of the runoff change, respectively. Spatially, while temperature rise is recognized as the largest contributor that suppresses runoff in most areas, precipitation is expected to be the dominant factor driving runoff to increase across the Pacific coast and the southwest. The combined effects of increasing humidity and precipitation may also surpass the detrimental effects of warming and result in a hydrologically wetter future in the east. However, severe runoff depletion is more likely to occur in the central CONUS as temperature effect prevails.

Evaluation of seasonal and spatial variations of lumped water balance model sensitivity to precipitation data errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chong-yu; Tunemar, Liselotte; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, V. P.

2006-06-01

Sensitivity of hydrological models to input data errors have been reported in the literature for particular models on a single or a few catchments. A more important issue, i.e. how model's response to input data error changes as the catchment conditions change has not been addressed previously. This study investigates the seasonal and spatial effects of precipitation data errors on the performance of conceptual hydrological models. For this study, a monthly conceptual water balance model, NOPEX-6, was applied to 26 catchments in the Mälaren basin in Central Sweden. Both systematic and random errors were considered. For the systematic errors, 5-15% of mean monthly precipitation values were added to the original precipitation to form the corrupted input scenarios. Random values were generated by Monte Carlo simulation and were assumed to be (1) independent between months, and (2) distributed according to a Gaussian law of zero mean and constant standard deviation that were taken as 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25% of the mean monthly standard deviation of precipitation. The results show that the response of the model parameters and model performance depends, among others, on the type of the error, the magnitude of the error, physical characteristics of the catchment, and the season of the year. In particular, the model appears less sensitive to the random error than to the systematic error. The catchments with smaller values of runoff coefficients were more influenced by input data errors than were the catchments with higher values. Dry months were more sensitive to precipitation errors than were wet months. Recalibration of the model with erroneous data compensated in part for the data errors by altering the model parameters.

Climatological Characterization of Three-Dimensional Storm Structure from Operational Radar and Rain Gauge Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiner, Matthias; Houze, Robert A., Jr.; Yuter, Sandra E.

1995-09-01

Three algorithms extract information on precipitation type, structure, and amount from operational radar and rain gauge data. Tests on one month of data from one site show that the algorithms perform accurately and provide products that characterize the essential features of the precipitation climatology. Input to the algorithms are the operationally executed volume scans of a radar and the data from a surrounding rain gauge network. The algorithms separate the radar echoes into convective and stratiform regions, statistically summarize the vertical structure of the radar echoes, and determine precipitation rates and amounts on high spatial resolution.The convective and stratiform regions are separated on the basis of the intensity and sharpness of the peaks of echo intensity. The peaks indicate the centers of the convective region. Precipitation not identified as convective is stratiform. This method avoids the problem of underestimating the stratiform precipitation. The separation criteria are applied in exactly the same way throughout the observational domain and the product generated by the algorithm can be compared directly to model output. An independent test of the algorithm on data for which high-resolution dual-Doppler observations are available shows that the convective stratiform separation algorithm is consistent with the physical definitions of convective and stratiform precipitation.The vertical structure algorithm presents the frequency distribution of radar reflectivity as a function of height and thus summarizes in a single plot the vertical structure of all the radar echoes observed during a month (or any other time period). Separate plots reveal the essential differences in structure between the convective and stratiform echoes.Tests yield similar results (within less than 10%) for monthly rain statistics regardless of the technique used for estimating the precipitation, as long as the radar reflectivity values are adjusted to agree with monthly rain gauge data. It makes little difference whether the adjustment is by monthly mean rates or percentiles. Further tests show that 1-h sampling is sufficient to obtain an accurate estimate of monthly rain statistics.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of historical droughts over Canada: role of observational uncertainties and teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asong, Z. E.; Wheater, H. S.; Bonsal, B. R.; Razavi, S.; Kurkute, S.

2017-12-01

Drought is a naturally occurring environmental phenomenon, and a major costly natural hazard that can have devastating impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, energy and other social-ecological systems. Of particular interest here is drought occurrence over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon, particularly in the interior Prairie region. However, nation-wide drought assessments are currently lacking and hampered partly by observational uncertainties. Therefore, this study aims to fill these gaps by providing a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of observational uncertainties and teleconnectivity. This is carried out by analysing different monthly precipitation and temperature products for the period 1950 - 2013. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months and 6 months from April to September and 12 months from October to September). First, trends in the SPEI are investigated by means of the Modified Mann Kendall test, while the Pettitt test was used to detect change points/transition years during the period of record. Major spatial patterns of long-term change, inter/intra-annual variability and periodicity of drought events are then characterized using the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function, and Continuous Wavelet Transform techniques. In addition, potential key drivers of drought are investigated using Wavelet Coherence Analysis, with a special emphasis on the role played by large-scale modes of climate variability. This provides important insight into the physical and dynamical mechanisms associated with the variability of drought events over different Canadian sub-regions.

Determine precipitation rates from visible and infrared satellite images of clouds by pattern recognition technique. Progress Report, 1 Jul. 1985 - 31 Mar. 1987 Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinman, James A.; Garan, Louis

1987-01-01

A more advanced cloud pattern analysis algorithm was subsequently developed to take the shape and brightness of the various clouds into account in a manner that is more consistent with the human analyst's perception of GOES cloud imagery. The results of that classification scheme were compared with precipitation probabilities observed from ships of opportunity off the U.S. east coast to derive empirical regressions between cloud types and precipitation probability. The cloud morphology was then quantitatively and objectively used to map precipitation probabilities during two winter months during which severe cold air outbreaks were observed over the northwest Atlantic. Precipitation probabilities associated with various cloud types are summarized. Maps of precipitation probability derived from the cloud morphology analysis program for two months and the precipitation probability derived from thirty years of ship observation were observed.

Millennial-scale vegetation dynamics in an estuary at the onset of the Miocene Climate Optimum

PubMed Central

Kern, Andrea; Harzhauser, Mathias; Mandic, Oleg; Roetzel, Reinhard; Ćorić, Stjepan; Bruch, Angela A.; Zuschin, Martin

2010-01-01

Pollen analyses have been proven to possess the possibility to decipher rapid vegetational and climate shifts in Neogene sedimentary records. Herein, a c. 21-kyr-long transgression–regression cycle from the Lower Austrian locality Stetten is analysed in detail to evaluate climatic benchmarks for the early phase of the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum and to estimate the pace of environmental change. Based on the Coexistence Approach, a very clear signal of seasonality can be reconstructed. A warm and wet summer season with c. 204–236 mm precipitation during the wettest month was opposed by a rather dry winter season with precipitation of c. 9–24 mm during the driest month. The mean annual temperature ranged between 15.7 and 20.8 °C, with about 9.6–13.3 °C during the cold season and 24.7–27.9 °C during the warmest month. In contrast, today’s climate of this area, with an annual temperature of 9.8 °C and 660 mm rainfall, is characterized by the winter season (mean temperature: −1.4 °C, mean precipitation: 39 mm) and a summer mean temperature of 19.9 °C (mean precipitation: 84 mm). Different modes of environmental shifts shaped the composition of the vegetation. Within few millennia, marshes and salt marshes with abundant Cyperaceae rapidly graded into Taxodiaceae swamps. This quick but gradual process was interrupted by swift marine ingressions which took place on a decadal to centennial scale. The transgression is accompanied by blooms of dinoflagellates and of the green alga Prasinophyta and an increase in Abies and Picea. Afterwards, the retreat of the sea and the progradation of estuarine and wetland settings were a gradual progress again. Despite a clear sedimentological cyclicity, which is related to the 21-kyr precessional forcing, the climate data show little variation. This missing pattern might be due to the buffering of the precessional-related climate signal by the subtropical vegetation. Another explanation could be the method-inherent broad range of climate-parameter estimates that could cover small scale climatic changes. PMID:22021937

Low resolution radar digital interface. [with data recorder for precipitation measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

This document describes the design and operation of a low resolution radar data recording system for precipitation measurements. This system records a full azimuth scan on seven track magnetic tapes every five minutes. It is designed to operate on a continuous basis with operator intervention required only for changing tape reels and calibration.

The Eocene climate of China, the early elevation of the Tibetan Plateau and the onset of the Asian Monsoon.

PubMed

Wang, Qing; Spicer, Robert A; Yang, Jian; Wang, Yu-Fei; Li, Cheng-Sen

2013-12-01

Eocene palynological samples from 37 widely distributed sites across China were analysed using co-existence approach to determine trends in space and time for seven palaeoclimate variables: Mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month, mean temperature of the coldest month, mean annual range of temperature, mean maximum monthly precipitation and mean minimum monthly precipitation. Present day distributions and observed climates within China of the nearest living relatives of the fossil forms were used to find the range of a given variable in which a maximum number of taxa can coexist. Isotherm and isohyet maps for the early, middle and late Eocene were constructed. These illustrate regional changing patterns in thermal and precipitational gradients that may be interpreted as the beginnings of the modern Asian Monsoon system, and suggest that the uplift of parts of the Tibetan Plateau appear to have taken place by the middle to late Eocene. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Jens Esmark's Christiania (Oslo) meteorological observations 1816-1838: the first long-term continuous temperature record from the Norwegian capital homogenized and analysed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hestmark, Geir; Nordli, Øyvind

2016-11-01

In 2010 we rediscovered the complete set of meteorological observation protocols made by Jens Esmark (1762-1839) during his years of residence in the Norwegian capital of Oslo (then Christiania). From 1 January 1816 to 25 January 1839, Esmark at his house in Øvre Voldgate in the morning, early afternoon and late evening recorded air temperature with state-of-the-art thermometers. He also noted air pressure, cloud cover, precipitation and wind directions, and experimented with rain gauges and hygrometers. From 1818 to the end of 1838 he twice a month provided weather tables to the official newspaper Den Norske Rigstidende, and thus acquired a semi-official status as the first Norwegian state meteorologist. This paper evaluates the quality of Esmark's temperature observations and presents new metadata, new homogenization and analysis of monthly means. Three significant shifts in the measurement series were detected, and suitable corrections are proposed. The air temperature in Oslo during this period is shown to exhibit a slow rise from 1816 towards 1825, followed by a slighter fall again towards 1838.

Flowering phenological changes in relation to climate change in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabó, Barbara; Vincze, Enikő; Czúcz, Bálint

2016-09-01

The importance of long-term plant phenological time series is growing in monitoring of climate change impacts worldwide. To detect trends and assess possible influences of climate in Hungary, we studied flowering phenological records for six species ( Convallaria majalis, Taraxacum officinale, Syringa vulgaris, Sambucus nigra, Robinia pseudoacacia, Tilia cordata) based on phenological observations from the Hungarian Meteorological Service recorded between 1952 and 2000. Altogether, four from the six examined plant species showed significant advancement in flowering onset with an average rate of 1.9-4.4 days per decade. We found that it was the mean temperature of the 2-3 months immediately preceding the mean flowering date, which most prominently influenced its timing. In addition, several species were affected by the late winter (January-March) values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. We also detected sporadic long-term effects for all species, where climatic variables from earlier months exerted influence with varying sign and little recognizable pattern: the temperature/NAO of the previous autumn (August-December) seems to influence Convallaria, and the temperature/precipitation of the previous spring (February-April) has some effect on Tilia flowering.

Evaluation of Satellite and Model Precipitation Products Over Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, M. T.; Amjad, M.

2017-12-01

Satellite-based remote sensing, gauge stations, and models are the three major platforms to acquire precipitation dataset. Among them satellites and models have the advantage of retrieving spatially and temporally continuous and consistent datasets, while the uncertainty estimates of these retrievals are often required for many hydrological studies to understand the source and the magnitude of the uncertainty in hydrological response parameters. In this study, satellite and model precipitation data products are validated over various temporal scales (daily, 3-daily, 7-daily, 10-daily and monthly) using in-situ measured precipitation observations from a network of 733 gauges from all over the Turkey. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 and European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model estimates (daily, 3-daily, 7-daily and 10-daily accumulated forecast) are used in this study. Retrievals are evaluated for their mean and standard deviation and their accuracies are evaluated via bias, root mean square error, error standard deviation and correlation coefficient statistics. Intensity vs frequency analysis and some contingency table statistics like percent correct, probability of detection, false alarm ratio and critical success index are determined using daily time-series. Both ECMWF forecasts and TRMM observations, on average, overestimate the precipitation compared to gauge estimates; wet biases are 10.26 mm/month and 8.65 mm/month, respectively for ECMWF and TRMM. RMSE values of ECMWF forecasts and TRMM estimates are 39.69 mm/month and 41.55 mm/month, respectively. Monthly correlations between Gauges-ECMWF, Gauges-TRMM and ECMWF-TRMM are 0.76, 0.73 and 0.81, respectively. The model and the satellite error statistics are further compared against the gauges error statistics based on inverse distance weighting (IWD) analysis. Both the model and satellite data have less IWD errors (14.72 mm/month and 10.75 mm/month, respectively) compared to gauges IWD error (21.58 mm/month). These results show that, on average, ECMWF forecast data have higher skill than TRMM observations. Overall, both ECMWF forecast data and TRMM observations show good potential for catchment scale hydrological analysis.

Noninvasive selective cryolipolysis and reperfusion recovery for localized natural fat reduction and contouring.

PubMed

Sasaki, Gordon H; Abelev, Natalie; Tevez-Ortiz, Ana

2014-03-01

Cryolipolysis is a contemporary method of reducing fat by controlled extraction of heat from adipocytes. The authors recorded temperature profiles during a single cryolipolysis treatment/recovery cycle (with and without massage) and report on the clinical safety and efficacy of this procedure. In the pilot study group (PSG), the abdomens of 6 patients were treated with cryolipolysis and subdermal temperatures were recorded. In the clinical treatment group (CTG), 112 patients were treated without temperature recordings and results were evaluated through matched comparison of standardized photographs, caliper measurements, ultrasound imaging, and global assessments. Thirty minutes into the cooling phase, subdermal temperatures of patients in the PSG declined precipitously from pretreatment levels and remained low until the end of treatment. During recovery, subdermal temperatures of the only subject who received massage returned faster and to higher levels than the temperatures of subjects who did not receive massage. Patients in the CTG who were available for follow-up measurements at 6 months (n = 85) demonstrated an average fat reduction of 21.5% by caliper measurements; 6 random patients from this group also showed an average of 19.6% fat reduction by ultrasound imaging at 6 months. Global assessments were highest for the abdomen, hip, and brassiere rolls. Minimal side effects were observed, and patients experienced no significant downtime. Noninvasive cryolipolysis results in a predictable and noticeable fat reduction within 6 months and does not cause skin damage. Profiling of subdermal temperatures may provide additional insights for improving clinical effectiveness and safety. 3.

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE.

PubMed

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-06-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km 2 ), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world's largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤  E f  ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation.

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE

PubMed Central

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-01-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km2), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world’s largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤ Ef ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation. PMID:24563556

Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2014-01-01

Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change. Precipitation during and after the monsoon is likely to increase in both basins under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios; whereas, the pre-monsoon precipitation is likely to decrease. Peak monsoon precipitation is likely to shift from July to August, and may impact the livelihoods of large rural populations linked to subsistence agriculture in the basins. Uncertainty analysis of the downscaled precipitation indicated that the uncertainty in the downscaled precipitation was less than the uncertainty in the original CGCM3.1 precipitation; hence, the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation was a better input for the regional hydrological impact studies. However, downscaled precipitation from multiple GCMs is suggested for comprehensive impact studies.

Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2011-01-01

A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

High-Resolution Modeling of ENSO-Induced Precipitation in the Tropical Andes: Implications for Proxy Interpretation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiefer, J.; Karamperidou, C.

2017-12-01

Clastic sediment flux into high-elevation Andean lakes is controlled by glacial processes and soil erosion caused by high precipitation events, making these lakes suitable archives of past climate. To wit, sediment records from Laguna Pallcacocha in Ecuador have been interpreted as proxies of ENSO variability, owing to increased precipitation in the greater region during El Niño events. However, the location of the lake's watershed, the presence of glaciers, and the different impacts of ENSO on precipitation in the eastern vs western Andes have challenged the suitability of the Pallcacocha record as an ENSO proxy. Here, we employ WRF, a high-resolution regional mesoscale weather prediction model, to investigate the circulation dynamics, sources of moisture, and resulting precipitation response in the L. Pallcacocha region during different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events, and in the presence or absence of ice caps. In patricular, we investigate Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), coastal El Niño, and La Niña events. We validate the model simulations against spatially interpolated station measurements and reanalysis data. We find that during EP events, moisture is primarily advected from the Pacific, whereas during CP events, moisture primarily originates from the Atlantic. More moisture is available during EP events, which implies higher precipitation rates. Furthermore, we find that precipitation during EP events is mostly non-convective in contrast to primarily convective precipitation during CP events. Finally, a synthesis of the sedimentary record and the EP:CP ratio of accumulated precipitation and specific humidity in the L. Pallcacocha region allows us to assess whether past changes in the relative frequency of the two ENSO flavors may have been recorded in paleoclimate archives in this region.

Climatic variation and runoff from partially-glacierised Himalayan tributary basins of the Ganges.

PubMed

Collins, David N; Davenport, Joshua L; Stoffel, Markus

2013-12-01

Climate records for locations across the southern slope of the Himalaya between 77°E and 91°E were selected together with discharge measurements from gauging stations on rivers draining partially-glacierised basins tributary to the Ganges, with a view to assessing impacts of climatic fluctuations on year-to-year variations of runoff during a sustained period of glacier decline. The aims were to describe temporal patterns of variation of glaciologically- and hydrologically-relevant climatic variables and of river flows from basins with differing percentages of ice-cover. Monthly precipitation and air temperature records, starting in the mid-nineteenth century at high elevation sites and minimising data gaps, were selected from stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network and CRUTEM3. Discharge data availability was limited to post 1960 for stations in Nepal and at Khab in the adjacent Sutlej basin. Strengths of climate-runoff relationships were assessed by correlation between overlapping portions of annual data records. Summer monsoon precipitation dominates runoff across the central Himalaya. Flow in tributaries of the Ganges in Nepal fluctuated from year to year but the general background level of flow was usually maintained from the 1960s to 2000s. Flow in the Sutlej, however, declined by 32% between the 1970s and 1990s, reflecting substantially reduced summer precipitation. Over the north-west Ganges-upper Sutlej area, monsoon precipitation declined by 30-40% from the 1960s to 2000s. Mean May-September air temperatures along the southern slope of the central Himalayas dipped from the 1960s, after a long period of slow warming or sustained temperatures, before rising rapidly from the mid-1970s so that in the 2000s summer air temperatures reached those achieved in earlier warmer periods. There are few measurements of runoff from highly-glacierised Himalayan headwater basins; runoff from one of which, Langtang Khola, was less than that of the monsoon-dominated Narayani river, in which basin Langtang is nested. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Precipitation Elevation Gradients in the Alaska Range using Ice Core and Alpine Weather Station Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McConnell, E.; Osterberg, E. C.; Winski, D.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Campbell, S. W.; Ferris, D. G.; Birkel, S. D.

2016-12-01

Precipitation in Alaska is sensitive to the Aleutian Low (ALow) pressure system and North Pacific sea-surface temperatures, as shown by the increase in Alaskan sub-Arctic precipitation associated with the 1976 shift to the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Precipitation in the high-elevation accumulation zones of Alaskan alpine glaciers provides critical mass input for glacial mass balance, which has been declining in recent decades from warmer summer temperatures despite the winter precipitation increase. Twin >1500-year ice cores collected from the summit plateau of Mount Hunter in Denali National Park, Alaska show a remarkable doubling of annual snow accumulation over the past 150 years, with most of the change observed in the winter. Other alpine ice cores collected from the Alaska and Saint Elias ranges show similar snowfall increases over recent decades. However, although Alaskan weather stations at low elevation recorded a 7-38% increase in winter precipitation across the 1976 PDO transition, this increase is not as substantial as that recorded in the Mt. Hunter ice core. Weather stations at high-elevation alpine sites are comparatively rare, and reasons for the enhanced precipitation trends at high elevation in Alaska remain unclear. Here we use Automatic Weather Station data from the Mt. Hunter drill site (3,900 m a.s.l) and from nearby Denali climber's Base Camp (2,195 m a.s.l.) to evaluate the relationships between alpine and lowland Alaskan precipitation on annual, seasonal, and storm-event temporal scales from 2008-2016. Both stations are located on snow and have sonic snow depth sounders to record daily precipitation. We focus on the role of variable ALow and North Pacific High strength in influencing Alaskan precipitation elevational gradients, particularly in association with the extreme 2015-2016 El Niño event, the 2009-2010 moderate El Niño event, and the 2010-2011 moderate La Niña event. Our analysis will improve our paleoclimate interpretations of the 1200-year Mt. Hunter accumulation record, and improve our ability to integrate low-elevation hydroclimate proxies from lake sediment cores.

A synoptic study of the nature and effects of field aligned low energy electron precipitation in the auroral regions. Ph.D. Thesis - Catholic Univ. of America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berko, F. W.

1972-01-01

A synoptic study is presented of field-aligned precipitation events observed during a 16-month period, representing a full 4 pi precession of the satellite orbital plane in magnetic local time. The morphology of this type of precipitation, its nature, and relationships between this phenomenon and other geophysical events are discussed in the context of the 16-month data base.

Composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest respond to spatial climatic changes.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingli; Zhou, Yong; Zhou, Guangsheng; Xiao, Chunwang

2014-01-01

Although some studies have indicated that climate changes can affect Pinus koraiensis mixed forest, the responses of composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forests to climatic changes are unknown and the key climatic factors controlling the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest are uncertain. Field survey was conducted in the natural Pinus koraiensis mixed forests along a latitudinal gradient and an elevational gradient in Northeast China. In order to build the mathematical models for simulating the relationships of compositional and structural attributes of the Pinus koraiensis mixed forest with climatic and non-climatic factors, stepwise linear regression analyses were performed, incorporating 14 dependent variables and the linear and quadratic components of 9 factors. All the selected new models were computed under the +2°C and +10% precipitation and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenarios. The Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month were observed to be key climatic factors controlling the stand densities and total basal areas of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Increased summer temperatures and precipitations strongly enhanced the stand densities and total basal areas of broadleaf trees but had little effect on Pinus koraiensis under the +2°C and +10% precipitation scenario and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenario. These results show that the Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month are key climatic factors which shape the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Although the Pinus koraiensis would persist, the current forests dominated by Pinus koraiensis in the region would all shift and become broadleaf-dominated forests due to the dramatic increase of broadleaf trees under the future global warming and increased precipitation.

Reassessing the role of temperature in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the eastern and central United States through weekly precipitation-day data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akers, Pete D.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Brook, George A.

2017-09-01

Air temperature is correlated with precipitation oxygen isotope (δ18Oprcp) variability for much of the eastern and central United States, but the nature of this δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is largely based on data coarsely aggregated at a monthly resolution. We constructed a database of 6177 weeks of isotope and precipitation-day air temperature data from 25 sites to determine how more precise data change our understanding of this classic relationship. Because the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is not perfectly linear, trends in the regression residuals suggest the influence of additional environmental factors such as moisture recycling and extratropical cyclone interactions. Additionally, the temporal relationships between δ18Oprcp and temperature observed in the weekly data at individual sites can explain broader spatial patterns observed across the study region. For 20 of 25 sites, the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship slope is higher for colder precipitation than for warmer precipitation. Accordingly, northern and western sites with relatively more cold precipitation events have steeper overall relationships with higher slope values than southeastern sites that have more warm precipitation events. Although the magnitude of δ18Oprcp variability increases to the north and west, the fraction of δ18Oprcp variability explained by temperature increases due to wider annual temperature ranges, producing stronger relationships in these regions. When our δ18Oprcp-temperature data are grouped by month, we observe significant variations in the relationship from month to month. This argues against a principal causative role for temperature and suggests the existence of an alternative environmental control on δ18Oprcp values that simply covaries seasonally with temperature.

Rapid precipitation of silica (opal-A) disguises evidence of biogenicity in high-temperature geothermal deposits: Case study from Dagunguo hot spring, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Xiaotong; Jones, Brian

2012-06-01

Dagunguo Spring, located in the Tengchong geothermal area in the western part of Yunnan Province, China, is a very active spring with water temperatures of 78 to 97 °C and pH of 7.7 to 8.8. The vent pool, 5.6 m in diameter and up to 1.5 m deep, is lined with opal-A that was precipitated from the near-boiling spring waters. A glass suspended in the pool was coated with opal-A in two months and two PVC pipes that drained water from the pool in late 2010 became lined with opal-A precipitates in less than three months. The opal-A accumulated at rates of 0.5 to 0.75 mm/month in the spring pool and 2.5 to 3.5 mm/month in the PVC pipes. The opal-A precipitates, irrespective of where they developed, are formed primarily of silicified microbes and opal-A spheres along with minor amounts of native sulfur, detrital quartz, and clay (mainly kaolinite). The fabrics in these opal-A deposits were dictated largely by the growth patterns of the filamentous and rod-shaped microbes that dominate this low-diversity biota and the amount of opal-A that was precipitated around them. Many of the microbes were preserved as rapid opal-A was precipitated on and around them before the cells decayed. With continued precipitation, however, the microbes became quickly engulfed in the opal-A precipitates and morphological evidence of their presence was lost. In essence, the process that controls their preservation ultimately disguised them to the point where cannot be seen. Critically, this loss of morphological identity takes places even before opal-A starts its diagenetic transformation towards quartz.

Precipitation data in a mountainous catchment in Honduras: quality assessment and spatiotemporal characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerberg, I.; Walther, A.; Guerrero, J.-L.; Coello, Z.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.-Y.; Chen, D.; Lundin, L.-C.

2010-08-01

An accurate description of temporal and spatial precipitation variability in Central America is important for local farming, water supply and flood management. Data quality problems and lack of consistent precipitation data impede hydrometeorological analysis in the 7,500 km2 Choluteca River basin in central Honduras, encompassing the capital Tegucigalpa. We used precipitation data from 60 daily and 13 monthly stations in 1913-2006 from five local authorities and NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network. Quality control routines were developed to tackle the specific data quality problems. The quality-controlled data were characterised spatially and temporally, and compared with regional and larger-scale studies. Two gap-filling methods for daily data and three interpolation methods for monthly and mean annual precipitation were compared. The coefficient-of-correlation-weighting method provided the best results for gap-filling and the universal kriging method for spatial interpolation. In-homogeneity in the time series was the main quality problem, and 22% of the daily precipitation data were too poor to be used. Spatial autocorrelation for monthly precipitation was low during the dry season, and correlation increased markedly when data were temporally aggregated from a daily time scale to 4-5 days. The analysis manifested the high spatial and temporal variability caused by the diverse precipitation-generating mechanisms and the need for an improved monitoring network.

Soaked

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlowicz, Michael

In 1996, the northeast region of the United States endured the wettest year since complete records were first kept in 1894, according to the Northeast Region Climate Center at Cornell University. The 12-state average of 53.89 inches of precipitation broke the old recordof 51.34 inches, set in 1972 when Hurricane Agnes blew through the area. The normal yearly precipitation for the Northeast is 41.90 inches.Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia all set precipitation records in 1996; Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, and Vermont all ranked 1996 among the top five years of precipitation in state history. The wettest state, Massachusetts, was doused with 60.98 inches—it normally receives 45.39 inches of precipitation in a year.

Lake Baikal isotope records of Holocene Central Asian precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, George E. A.; Mackay, Anson W.; Vologina, Elena; Jones, Matthew D.; Panizzo, Virginia N.; Leng, Melanie J.; Sloane, Hilary J.; Snelling, Andrea M.; Sturm, Michael

2018-06-01

Climate models currently provide conflicting predictions of future climate change across Central Asia. With concern over the potential for a change in water availability to impact communities and ecosystems across the region, an understanding of historical trends in precipitation is required to aid model development and assess the vulnerability of the region to future changes in the hydroclimate. Here we present a record from Lake Baikal, located in the southern Siberian region of central Asia close to the Mongolian border, which demonstrates a relationship between the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ18Odiatom) and precipitation to the region over the 20th and 21st Century. From this, we suggest that annual rates of precipitation in recent times are at their lowest for the past 10,000 years and identify significant long-term variations in precipitation throughout the early to late Holocene interval. Based on comparisons to other regional records, these trends are suggested to reflect conditions across the wider Central Asian region around Lake Baikal and highlight the potential for further changes in precipitation with future climate change.

Intercomparison of PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM-3B42V7 precipitation estimates at monthly and daily time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katiraie-Boroujerdy, Pari-Sima; Akbari Asanjan, Ata; Hsu, Kuo-lin; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2017-09-01

In the first part of this paper, monthly precipitation data from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 algorithm Version 7 (TRMM-3B42V7) are evaluated over Iran using the Generalized Three-Cornered Hat (GTCH) method which is self-sufficient of reference data as input. Climate Data Unit (CRU) is added to the GTCH evaluations as an independent gauge-based dataset thus, the minimum requirement of three datasets for the model is satisfied. To ensure consistency of all datasets, the two satellite products were aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution, which is the minimum resolution of CRU. The results show that the PERSIANN-CDR has higher Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) than TRMM-3B42V7 for the monthly rainfall estimation, especially in the northern half of the country. All datasets showed low SNR in the mountainous area of southwestern Iran, as well as the arid parts in the southeast region of the country. Additionally, in order to evaluate the efficacy of PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM-3B42V7 in capturing extreme daily-precipitation amounts, an in-situ rain-gauge dataset collected by the Islamic Republic of the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) was employed. Given the sparsity of the rain gauges, only 0.25° pixels containing three or more gauges were used for this evaluation. There were 228 such pixels where daily and extreme rainfall from PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM-3B42V7 could be compared. However, TRMM-3B42V7 overestimates most of the intensity indices (correlation coefficients; R between 0.7648-0.8311, Root Mean Square Error; RMSE between 3.29mm/day-21.2mm/5day); PERSIANN-CDR underestimates these extremes (R between 0.6349-0.7791 and RMSE between 3.59mm/day-30.56mm/5day). Both satellite products show higher correlation coefficients and lower RMSEs for the annual mean of consecutive dry spells than wet spells. The results show that TRMM-3B42V7 can capture the annual mean of the absolute indices (the number of wet days in which daily precipitation > 10 mm, 20 mm) better than PERSIANN-CDR. The results of daily evaluations show that the similarity of Empirical Cumulative Density Function (ECDF) of satellite products and IRIMO gauges daily precipitation, as well as dry spells with different thresholds in some selected pixels (include at least five gauges), are significant. The results also indicate that ECDFs become more significant when threshold increases. In terms of regional analyses, the higher SNR of the products on monthly (based on the GTCH method) and daily evaluations (significant ECDFs) is mostly consistent.

Downscaled Climate Change Projections for the Southern Colorado Plateau: Variability and Implications for Vegetation Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, G. M.; Eischeid, J. K.; Cole, K. L.; Ironside, K.; Cobb, N. S.

2008-12-01

Recent and rapid forest mortality in western North America and associated changes in fire frequency and area burned are among the chief concerns of ecosystem managers. These examples of climate change surprises demonstrate nonlinear and threshold ecosystem responses to increased temperatures and severe drought. A consistent management request from climate change adaptation workshops held during the last four years in the southwest U.S. is for region-specific estimates of climate and vegetation change, in order to provide guidance for management of federal and state forest, range, and riparian preserves and land holdings. Partly in response to these concerns, and partly in the interest of improving knowledge of potential ecosystem changes and their relationships with observed changes and changes demonstrated in the paleoecological record, we developed a set of integrated climate and ecosystem analyses. We selected five of twenty-two GCMs from the PCMDI archive of IPCC AR4 model runs, based on their approximations of observed critical seasonality for vegetation in the Southern Colorado Plateau (domain: 35°- 38°N, 114°-107°W), centered on the Four Corners states. We used three key seasons in our analysis, winter (November-March), pre-monsoon (May-June), and monsoon (July- September). Projections of monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation from our five-model ensemble indicate steadily increasing temperatures in our region of interest during the twenty-first century. By 2050, the ensemble projects increases of 3.0°C during May and June, months critical for drought stress and tree mortality, and 4.5-5.0°C by 2090. Projected temperature changes for months during the heart of winter (December and January) are on the order of 2.5°C by 2050 and 3.0°C by 2090; such changes are likely to affect snow hydrology in middle to low elevations in the Southern Colorado Plateau. Summer temperature increases are on the order of 2.5°C (2050) and 4.0°C (2090). The most striking aspect of projections of future precipitation is steadily decreasing May-June precipitation during the twenty-first century. Though absolute precipitation during this season is small, declining moisture during the arid pre-monsoon will likely decrease soil moisture, and increase drought stress - consequently, increasing vegetation susceptibility the insect outbreaks and disease. Summer precipitation projections show considerable multi-decade variability, but no substantial trends. Winter precipitation shows little interannual variability and no strong trends. By 2090, annual precipitation is projected to decline by 1-5% across much of the region, with greater declines in the southern part of the domain and increases of 1-5% in the northwestern and northeastern parts of the domain. As part of a National Institute for Climate Change Research project, these projected changes will be input into a USDA-FS vegetation response model, in order to estimate species-specific responses to projected climate changes. We expect increasing temperatures, declining annual precipitation, and extreme declines in pre-monsoon season precipitation to generate significant redistribution of some plant species in the Southern Colorado Plateau.

Interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate: relative contribution from precipitation and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Zeng, N.; Wang, M. R.

2015-12-01

The interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) is closely connected with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, sensitivities of CGR to temperature and precipitation remain largely uncertain. This paper analyzed the relationship between Mauna Loa CGR and tropical land climatic elements. We find that Mauna Loa CGR lags precipitation by 4 months with a correlation coefficient of -0.63, leads temperature by 1 month (0.77), and correlates with soil moisture (-0.65) with zero lag. Additionally, precipitation and temperature are highly correlated (-0.66), with precipitation leading by 4-5 months. Regression analysis shows that sensitivities of Mauna Loa CGR to temperature and precipitation are 2.92 ± 0.20 Pg C yr-1 K-1 and -0.46 ± 0.07 Pg C yr-1 100 mm-1, respectively. Unlike some recent suggestions, these empirical relationships favor neither temperature nor precipitation as the dominant factor of CGR IAV. We further analyzed seven terrestrial carbon cycle models, from the TRENDY project, to study the processes underlying CGR IAV. All models capture well the IAV of tropical land-atmosphere carbon flux (CFTA). Sensitivities of the ensemble mean CFTA to temperature and precipitation are 3.18 ± 0.11 Pg C yr-1 K-1 and -0.67 ± 0.04 Pg C yr-1 100 mm-1, close to Mauna Loa CGR. Importantly, the models consistently show the variability in net primary productivity (NPP) dominates CGR, rather than soil respiration. Because NPP is largely driven by precipitation, this suggests a key role of precipitation in CGR IAV despite the higher CGR correlation with temperature. Understanding the relative contribution of CO2 sensitivity to precipitation and temperature has important implications for future carbon-climate feedback using such "emergent constraint".

The Cenozoic Cooling - continental signals from the Atlantic and Pacific side of Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utescher, Torsten; Bondarenko, Olesya V.; Mosbrugger, Volker

2015-04-01

The evolution of Cenozoic continental climate signals from the Atlantic and Pacific side of Eurasia can be assessed for the first time by comparing climate records obtained for two mid-latitudinal regions. For the West, a detailed climate record over the past 45 Ma, based on palaeofloras from two Northern German Cenozoic basins (Mosbrugger et al., 2005) revealed major trends and shorter-term events throughout the Cenozoic Cooling, thus testifying the close correlation of continental and marine temperature evolution as derived from oxygen isotopes (Zachos et al., 2008). Using the same methodology, we analyze a total of 14 floral horizons originating from continental strata of Southern Primory'e (Russia) in order to study the evolution at the eastern side of the continent. The Primory'e record spans the middle Eocene to early Pleistocene. As the coeval record for the Atlantic side, it reflects major global signals of Cenozoic climate change such as the temperature decline throughout the late Eocene, coinciding with the growth of Antarctic Ice-sheets, warming during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum, and step-wise cooling throughout the later Neogene. The comparison of both records reveals differing regional patterns. The considerable longitudinal temperature gradient, currently existing between both study areas, already began to evolve during the Aquitanian, and was very significant during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. The temperature offset between East and West is likely attributable to an effective North Atlantic Current, already operational from the late early Miocene onwards bringing about mild winters and low seasonality in Western Europe, while in Primory'e, seasonality steadily increased from the late Oligocene on. The strong late Pliocene decline of cold month mean temperatures recorded in Primory'e is supposed to coincide with the establishment of the Siberian High as semi-permanent structure of the Northern Hemisphere circulation pattern. When comparing the precipitation records obtained for both study areas, an unexpected co-variability at the longer-term (in the order of 5-20 Ma) is noted, pointing to continent-wide hydrological changes. The steady decline of mean annual precipitation in the Primory'e record, beginning in the Bartonian and culminating in the Aquitanian, coincides with an aridity increase reported from coeval Chinese inland localities of the mid-latitudes. The seasonality patterns of rainfall point to progressive intensification of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Primory'e since the later Tortonian while the post-Zanclean decline of the precipitation of the dry season can be related to an increasing impact of the winter monsoon.

Variations/Changes in Daily Precipitation Extremes Derived from Satellite-Based Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, G.; Adler, R. F.

2017-12-01

Interannual/decadal-scale variations/changes in daily precipitation extremes are investigated by means of satellite-based high-spatiotemporal resolution precipitation products, including TRMM-TMPA, PERSIANN-CDR-Daily, GPCP 1DD, etc. Extreme precipitation indices at grids are first defined, including the maximum daily precipitation amount (Rx1day), the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), the conditional (Rcond) daily precipitation rate (Pr>0 mm day-1), and monthly frequencies of rainy (FOCc) and wet (FOCw) days. Other two precipitation intensity indices, i.e., mean daily precipitation rates for Pr ≥10 mm day-1 (Pr10II) and for Pr ≥ 20 mm day-1 (Pr20II), are also constructed. Consistency analyses of daily extreme indices among these data sets are then performed by comparing corresponding averages over large domains such as tropical (30oN-30oS) land, ocean, land+ocean, for their common period (post-1997). This can provide a preliminary uncertainty analysis of these data sets in describing daily extreme precipitation events. Discrepancies can readily be found among these products regarding the magnitudes of area-averaged extreme indices. However, generally consistent temporal variations can be found among the indices derived from different satellite products. Interannual variability in daily precipitation extremes are then examined and compared at grids by exploring their relations with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Linear correlation and composite analyses are used to examine the impact of ENSO on these extreme indices at grids and over large domains during the post-1997 period. Decadal-scale variability/change in daily extreme events is further examined by using the PERSIANN-CDR-Daily that can cover the entire post-1983 period, based on its general consistency with other two products during the post-1979 period. We specifically focus on exploring and discriminating the effects of decadal-scale internal variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic forcings including the greenhouse-gases (GHG) related warming. Comparisons are also made over global land with the results from two gridded daily rain-gauge products, GPCC Full-record daily (1988-2013) and NOAA/CPC Unified daily (1979-present).

The Evolution of Tropical Precipitation Patterns During ENSO Events Using 21+ Years of GPCP Merged Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert

2000-01-01

The ENSO phenomenon is characterized by fluctuations in the climate system of the tropical Pacific. Quantifying changes in the precipitation component of this system is important in understanding the distribution of heating in the atmosphere which drives the large-scale circulation and affects the weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Monitoring precipitation anomalies in the Pacific is also an important component for tracking the evolution of ENSO. The most timely and complete observations of the earth come from satellite instruments. In this study, the state of the art satellite-gauge merged monthly precipitation data set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to depict tropical rainfall patterns during ENSO events over the past two decades and quantify these patterns using indices. This analysis will be complemented by daily precipitation data which can resolve the Madden-Julian Oscillation and westerly wind burst events. The 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina were the best observed ENSO cycle in the historic record. Prior to the El Nino (in terms of anomalous warming of the east Pacific) dry anomalies over the Maritime Continent were observed in February 1997 as a westerly wind burst advected convection to the east. The largest SST anomalies occurred around November-December 1997, which were followed by the largest precipitation anomalies in the beginning of 1998. The largest precipitation departures from normal were not colocated with the SST anomalies, but were further west, In the spring of 1998 negative precipitation anomalies to the north of the equator intensified, signaling the mature phase of the El Nino. A rapid increase in the precipitation-based La Nina index from December-January 1998 to March-April 1998 signaled the coming La Nina. The 1982-1983 El Nino was comparable in strength (according to several indices) and the precipitation patterns evolved in a similar fashion. For the 1998-2000 La Nina, the coldest anomalies, were confined to the central equatorial Pacific, while the driest anomalies were found in the west Pacific,

Ground-water levels in Huron County, Michigan, 2002-03

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, T.L.; Blumer, S.P.; Crowley, S.L.

2008-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a study of the hydrogeology of Huron County, Michigan (Sweat, 1991). In 1993, Huron County and the USGS entered into a continuing agreement to collect water-level altitudes (hereafter referred to as water levels) at selected wells throughout Huron County. As part of the agreement, USGS has operated four continuous water-level recorders, installed from 1988 to 1991 on wells in Bingham, Fairhaven, Grant, and Lake Townships (fig. 1) and summarized the data collected in an annual or bi-annual report. The agreement was altered in 2003, and beginning January 1, 2004, only the wells in Fairhaven and Lake Townships will have continuous water-level recorders, while the wells in Grant and Bingham Townships will revert to quarterly measurement status. USGS has also provided training for County or Huron Conservation District personnel to measure the water level, on a quarterly basis, in 23 wells. USGS personnel regularly accompany County or Huron Conservation District personnel to provide a quality assurance/quality control check of all measurements being made. Water-level data collected from the 23 quarterly-measured wells is also summarized in the annual or bi-annual report. In 1998, the USGS also completed a temporal and spatial analysis of the monitoring well network in Huron County (Holtschlag and Sweat, 1998).The altitude of Lake Huron and precipitation are good indicators of general climatic conditions and, therefore, provide an environmental context for groundwater levels in Huron County. Figure 2 shows the mean-monthly water-level altitude of Lake Huron, averaged from measurements made by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at sites near Essexville and Harbor Beach, and monthly precipitation measured in Bad Axe (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA], 2002-04; Danny Costello, NOAA hydrologist, written commun., 2003-04). In March 2003, a new low-water level for the period of this study was measured in Lake Huron (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2003; 2004). The net decline in the water level of Lake Huron from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2003 was about 0.3 ft. Annual precipitation in 2002 was about 0.3 inches above normal, with much of it occurring during summer months. The provisional precipitation total for 2003 is about an inch below normal (NOAA, 2003, 2004; Danny Costello, NOAA hydrologist, written commun., 2003, 2004).Four wells equipped with continuous-data recorders are completed in the glacial, Saginaw, and Marshall aquifers. Water levels in three of the four wells equipped with continuous-data recorders experienced a net decline over the period from January 2002 to December 2003, while the level in well H9r, completed in the Saginaw aquifer in Fairhaven Township adjacent to Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron), rose about 1.3 ft over the same period. Interestingly, the water level in Saginaw Bay declined about 0.3 ft over the same period. A period-ofrecord maximum depth to water was recorded in September 2003 in well H25Ar, completed in the Marshall aquifer in Lake Township. Hydrographs showing altitude of the water surface are presented for each of four wells equipped with continuous-data recorders.Twenty three wells were measured on a quarterly basis in 2002-03. These wells are completed in the Saginaw and Marshall aquifers, and Coldwater confining unit. Although each quarterly measurement only provides a “snapshot” water level, the data adequately define the “generalized” water-level trend in the aquifer near the well. The water level in one quarterly-measured well completed in the Saginaw aquifer near Saginaw Bay, had a net rise for the period from January 2002 to December 2003, while levels in the other 22 quarterly-measured wells declined about 0.5 to 2.0 ft during the same period. A period-of-record minimum depth to water (high) was measured in 2002 in two quarterly-measured wells completed in the Saginaw aquifer, although the level in one of those wells had a net decline over the period from January 2002 through December 2003. Conversely, period-of-record maximum depths to water (low) were measured in 2002 in one well completed in the Saginaw aquifer and two wells completed in the Marshall aquifer; and in 2003, in 6 of 16 wells completed in the Marshall aquifer. Near period-ofrecord maximum depths to water were measured in 2003 in two additional wells completed in the Marshall aquifer. No period-of-record minimum or maximum depths to water were measured in 2002-03 in wells completed in the Coldwater confining unit. Hydrographs showing water levels measured in each well are presented for the 23 wells measured on a quarterly basis.Water-level trends measured in 2002-03 in other wells in Lower Michigan have similarities to those measured in Huron County wells. Several external factors appear to influence water-level trends including proximity to nearby production wells, amount and timing of precipitation events, evapotranspiration and type of prevalent ground cover, proximity of aquifer to the surface, and hydraulic characteristics of overlying geologic materials.

Long-term trend analysis of reservoir water quality and quantity at the landscape scale in two major river basins of Texas, USA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patino, Reynaldo; Asquith, William H.; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.; Dawson, D.

2016-01-01

Trends in water quality and quantity were assessed for 11 major reservoirs of the Brazos and Colorado river basins in the southern Great Plains (maximum period of record, 1965–2010). Water quality, major contributing-stream inflow, storage, local precipitation, and basin-wide total water withdrawals were analyzed. Inflow and storage decreased and total phosphorus increased in most reservoirs. The overall, warmest-, or coldest-monthly temperatures increased in 7 reservoirs, decreased in 1 reservoir, and did not significantly change in 3 reservoirs. The most common monotonic trend in salinity-related variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate) was one of no change, and when significant change occurred, it was inconsistent among reservoirs. No significant change was detected in monthly sums of local precipitation. Annual water withdrawals increased in both basins, but the increase was significant (P < 0.05) only in the Colorado River and marginally significant (P < 0.1) in the Brazos River. Salinity-related variables dominated spatial variability in water quality data due to the presence of high- and low-salinity reservoirs in both basins. These observations present a landscape in the Brazos and Colorado river basins where, in the last ∼40 years, reservoir inflow and storage generally decreased, eutrophication generally increased, and water temperature generally increased in at least 1 of 3 temperature indicators evaluated. Because local precipitation remained generally stable, observed reductions in reservoir inflow and storage during the study period may be attributable to other proximate factors, including increased water withdrawals (at least in the Colorado River basin) or decreased runoff from contributing watersheds.

Plant-water relationships in the Great Basin Desert of North America derived from Pinus monophylla hourly dendrometer records.

PubMed

Biondi, Franco; Rossi, Sergio

2015-08-01

Water is the main limiting resource for natural and human systems, but the effect of hydroclimatic variability on woody species in water-limited environments at sub-monthly time scales is not fully understood. Plant-water relationships of single-leaf pinyon pine (Pinus monophylla) were investigated using hourly dendrometer and environmental data from May 2006 to October 2011 in the Great Basin Desert, one of the driest regions of North America. Average radial stem increments showed an annual range of variation below 1.0 mm, with a monotonic steep increase from May to July that yielded a stem enlargement of about 0.5 mm. Stem shrinkage up to 0.2 mm occurred in late summer, followed by an abrupt expansion of up to 0.5 mm in the fall, at the arrival of the new water year precipitation. Subsequent winter shrinkage and enlargement were less than 0.3 mm each. Based on 4 years with continuous data, diel cycles varied in both timing and amplitude between months and years. Phase shifts in circadian stem changes were observed between the growing season and the dormant one, with stem size being linked to precipitation more than to other water-related indices, such as relative humidity or soil moisture. During May-October, the amplitude of the phases of stem contraction, expansion, and increment was positively related to their duration in a nonlinear fashion. Changes in precipitation regime, which affected the diel phases especially when lasting more than 5-6 h, could substantially influence the dynamics of water depletion and replenishment in single-leaf pinyon pine.

Plant-water relationships in the Great Basin Desert of North America derived from Pinus monophylla hourly dendrometer records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, Franco; Rossi, Sergio

2015-08-01

Water is the main limiting resource for natural and human systems, but the effect of hydroclimatic variability on woody species in water-limited environments at sub-monthly time scales is not fully understood. Plant-water relationships of single-leaf pinyon pine ( Pinus monophylla) were investigated using hourly dendrometer and environmental data from May 2006 to October 2011 in the Great Basin Desert, one of the driest regions of North America. Average radial stem increments showed an annual range of variation below 1.0 mm, with a monotonic steep increase from May to July that yielded a stem enlargement of about 0.5 mm. Stem shrinkage up to 0.2 mm occurred in late summer, followed by an abrupt expansion of up to 0.5 mm in the fall, at the arrival of the new water year precipitation. Subsequent winter shrinkage and enlargement were less than 0.3 mm each. Based on 4 years with continuous data, diel cycles varied in both timing and amplitude between months and years. Phase shifts in circadian stem changes were observed between the growing season and the dormant one, with stem size being linked to precipitation more than to other water-related indices, such as relative humidity or soil moisture. During May-October, the amplitude of the phases of stem contraction, expansion, and increment was positively related to their duration in a nonlinear fashion. Changes in precipitation regime, which affected the diel phases especially when lasting more than 5-6 h, could substantially influence the dynamics of water depletion and replenishment in single-leaf pinyon pine.

The effect of microstructural evolution on hardening behavior of type 17-4PH stainless steel in long-term aging at 350 deg. C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang Jun; Zou Hong; Li Cong

2006-12-15

The effect of microstructural evolution on hardening behavior of 17-4PH stainless steel in long-term aging at 350 deg. C was studied by X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy. The results showed that there is the matrix of lath martensite and nanometer-sized particles of {epsilon}-Cu precipitated from the matrix after the alloy is solution treated and tempered. When the alloy was aged 350 deg. C for 9 months, {alpha}-{alpha}' spinodal decomposition occurred along the grain boundaries and caused an increase in hardness which compensated for the weakening effect due to ripening of the {epsilon}-copper precipitates. Upon further aging to 12 months,more » the Cr-rich {alpha}'-phase and M{sub 23}C{sub 6} precipitated, both of which strengthened the alloy considerably and led to enhanced hardening despite the continued softening by overaging of the {epsilon}-copper precipitates. With the aging time extended to 15 months, substantial reversed austenite transformed and precipitation of the intermetallic G-phase occurred near the {epsilon}-Cu precipitates in the matrix. The abundant amount of reversed austenite that transformed led to rapid softening.« less

Holocene East Asian summer monsoon records in northern China and their inconsistency with Chinese stalagmite δ18O records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianbao; Chen, Jianhui; Zhang, Xiaojian; Chen, Fahu

2016-04-01

Monsoon precipitation over China exhibits large spatial differences. It has been found that a significantly enhanced East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is characterized by increased rainfall in northern China and by reduced rainfall in southern China, and this relationship occurs on different time scales during the Holocene. This study presents results from a diverse range of proxy paleoclimatic records from northern China where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an EASM proxy. Our aim is to evaluate the evolution of the EASM during the Holocene and to compare it with all of the published stalagmite δ18O records from the Asian Monsoon region in order to explore the potential mechanism(s) controlling the Chinese stalagmite δ18O. We found that the intensity of the EASM during the Holocene recorded by the traditional EASM proxy of moisture (or precipitation) records from northern China are significantly different from the Chinese stalagmite δ18O records. The EASM maximum occurred during the mid-Holocene, challenging the prevailing view of an early Holocene EASM maximum mainly inferred from stalagmite δ18O records in eastern China. In addition, all of the well-dated Holocene stalagmite δ18O records, covering a broad geographical region, exhibit a remarkably similar trend of variation and are statistically well-correlated on different time scales, thus indicating a common signal. However, in contrast with the clear consistency in the δ18O values in all of the cave records, both instrumental and paleoclimatic records exhibit significant spatial variations in rainfall on decadal-to- centennial time scales over eastern China. In addition, both paleoclimatic records and modeling results suggest that Holocene East Asian summer monsoon precipitation reached a maximum at different periods in different regions of China. Thus the stalagmite δ18O records from the EASM region should not be regarded as a reliable indicator of the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. Furthermore, modern observations indicate that the moisture for precipitation in the East Asian monsoon region is mainly derived from the Indian Ocean. The moisture transport route from the Indian Ocean to the East Asian monsoon region during the Holocene is almost identical to that of modern precipitation. Therefore the strong correlation of δ18O records in the EASM and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) regions, and the similarity of the pattern of latitudinal changes in δ18O values in stalagmites and in modern meteoric precipitation along the water vapor transport route, further suggests that the stalagmite δ18O records from the EASM region are essentially a signal of the isotopic composition of precipitation, which is determined mainly by changes in the δ18O of atmospheric vapour in the upstream source region over the Indian Ocean and Indian Monsoon region via the upstream depletion mechanism. Finally, the main trends of the stalagmite δ18O records are strongly correlated with the known evolution of the ISM, and therefore these records reflect the history of the ISM rather than that of the EASM. Our findings support the conclusion that EASM variability is mainly controlled by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and was strongly modulated by ice volume during the last deglaciation and early Holocene, which delayed the response of the EASM maximum to peak insolation forcing.

Spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole modes: implications for flooding and drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffry M.

2015-01-01

We evaluated the spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins as modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) full data reanalysis of monthly global land-surface precipitation data from 1901 to 2010 with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. The GPCC monthly total precipitation climatology targeting the period 1951–2000 was used to compute gridded monthly anomalies for the entire time period. The gridded monthly anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by combinations of climate modes. Occurrences of El Niño alone significantly reduce (88% of the long-term average (LTA)) precipitation during the monsoon months in the western and southeastern Ganges Basin. In contrast, occurrences of La Niña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD events significantly enhance (110 and 109% of LTA in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Basin, respectively) precipitation across both basins. When El Niño co-occurs with positive IOD events, the impacts of El Niño on the basins' precipitation diminishes. When there is no active ENSO or IOD events (occurring in 41 out of 110 years), precipitation remains below average (95% of LTA) in the agriculturally intensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Western Nepal in the Ganges Basin, whereas precipitation remains average to above average (104% of LTA) across the Brahmaputra Basin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely, especially in the Ganges Basin, with implications for the agriculture sector due to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production. Historically, major droughts occurred during El Niño and co-occurrences of El Niño and positive IOD events, while major flooding occurred during La Niña and co-occurrences of La Niña and negative IOD events in the basins. This observational analysis will facilitate well-informed decision making in minimizing natural hazard risks and climate impacts on agriculture, and supports development of strategies ensuring optimized use of water resources in best management practice under a changing climate.

Climatology and Interannual Variability of Quasi-Global Intense Precipitation Using Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricko, Martina; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2016-01-01

Climatology and variations of recent mean and intense precipitation over a near-global (50 deg. S 50 deg. N) domain on a monthly and annual time scale are analyzed. Data used to derive daily precipitation to examine the effects of spatial and temporal coverage of intense precipitation are from the current Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 precipitation product, with high spatial and temporal resolution during 1998 - 2013. Intense precipitation is defined by several different parameters, such as a 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation, a mean precipitation that exceeds that percentile, or a fixed threshold of daily precipitation value [e.g., 25 and 50 mm day(exp -1)]. All parameters are used to identify the main characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of intense precipitation. High correlations between examined parameters are observed, especially between climatological monthly mean precipitation and intense precipitation, over both tropical land and ocean. Among the various parameters examined, the one best characterizing intense rainfall is a fraction of daily precipitation Great than or equal to 25 mm day(exp. -1), defined as a ratio between the intense precipitation above the used threshold and mean precipitation. Regions that experience an increase in mean precipitation likely experience a similar increase in intense precipitation, especially during the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Improved knowledge of this intense precipitation regime and its strong connection to mean precipitation given by the fraction parameter can be used for monitoring of intense rainfall and its intensity on a global to regional scale.

Global Precipitation Analyses (3-Hourly to Monthly) Using TRMM, SSM/I and other Satellite Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the 20-year data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 20 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENS0 variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 deg. latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is discussed. Finally, a TRMM-based 3-hr analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3-hr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg. latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O deg. N-50 deg. S. Examples are shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Carbon-Water-Energy Relations for Selected River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.

1998-01-01

A biophysical process-based model was run using satellite, assimilated and ancillary data for four years (1987-1990) to calculate components of total evaporation (transpiration, interception, soil and snow evaporation), net radiation, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and net primary productivity over the global land surface. Satellite observations provided fractional vegetation cover, solar and photosynthetically active radiation incident of the surface, surface albedo, fractional cloud cover, air temperature and vapor pressure. The friction velocity and surface air pressure are obtained from a four dimensional data assimilation results, while precipitation is either only surface observations or a blended product of surface and satellite observations. All surface and satellite data are monthly mean values; precipitation has been disaggregated into daily values. All biophysical parameters of the model are prescribed according to published records. From these global land surface calculations results for river basins are derived using digital templates of basin boundaries. Comparisons with field observations (micrometeorologic, catchment water balance, biomass production) and atmospheric water budget analysis for monthly evaporation from six river basins have been done to assess errors in the calculations. Comparisons are also made with previous estimates of zonal variations of evaporation and net primary productivity. Efficiencies of transpiration, total evaporation and radiation use, and evaporative fraction for selected river basins will be presented.

Precipitation and floodiness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, E.; Day, J. J.; Pappenberger, F.; Cloke, H.

2015-12-01

There are a number of factors that lead to nonlinearity between precipitation anomalies and flood hazard; this nonlinearity is a pertinent issue for applications that use a precipitation forecast as a proxy for imminent flood hazard. We assessed the degree of this nonlinearity for the first time using a recently developed global-scale hydrological model driven by the ERA-Interim/Land precipitation reanalysis (1980-2010). We introduced new indices to assess large-scale flood hazard, or floodiness, and quantified the link between monthly precipitation, river discharge, and floodiness anomalies at the global and regional scales. The results show that monthly floodiness is not well correlated with precipitation, therefore demonstrating the value of hydrometeorological systems for providing floodiness forecasts for decision-makers. A method is described for forecasting floodiness using the Global Flood Awareness System, building a climatology of regional floodiness from which to forecast floodiness anomalies out to 2 weeks.

ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.; Riddle, L.G.

1999-01-01

Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) dealy the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12 month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) delay the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12-month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.

Seasonal relationships between precipitation, forest floor, and streamwater nitrogen, Isle Royale, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stottlemyer, R.; Toczydlowski, D.

1999-01-01

The Upper Great Lakes receive large amounts of precipitation-NH4/+ and moderate NO3/- inputs. Increased atmospheric inorganic N input has led to concern about ecosystem capacity to utilize excess N. This paper summarizes a 5-yr study of seasonal N content and flux in precipitation, snowpack, forest floor, and streamwater in order to assess the source of inorganic N outputs in streamflow from a small boreal watershed. Average precipitation N input was 3 kg ha-1 yr-1. The peak snowpack N content averaged 0.55 kg ha-1. The forest floor inorganic N pool was ???2 kg ha-1, eight times larger than monthly precipitation N input. The inorganic N pool size peaked in spring and early summer. Ninety percent of the forest floor inorganic N pool was made up of NH4/+-N. Forest floor inorganic N pools generally increased with temperature. Net N mineralization was 15 kg ha-1 yr-1, and monthly rates peaked in early summer. During winter, the mean monthly net N mineralization rate was twice the peak snowpack N content. Streamwater NO3/- concentration peaked in winter, and inorganic N output peaked in late fall. Beneath the dominant boreal forest species, net N mineralization rates were positively correlated (P < 0.05) with streamwater NO3/- concentrations. Forest floor NO3/- pools beneath alder [Alnus rugosa (Du Roi) Spreng] were positively correlated (P < 0.01) to streamwater NO3/- output. At the watershed mouth, streamwater NO3/- concentrations were positively correlated (P < 0.05) with precipitation NO3/- input and precipitation amount. The relatively small snowpack N content and seasonal precipitation N input compared to forest floor inorganic N pools and net N mineralization rates, the strong ecosystem retention of precipitation N inputs, and the seasonal streamwater NO3/- concentration and output pattern all indicated that little streamwater NO3/- came directly from precipitation or snowmelt.The Upper Great Lakes receive large amounts of precipitation-NH4+ and moderate NO3- inputs. Increased atmospheric inorganic N input has led to concern about ecosystem capacity to utilize excess N. This paper summarizes a 5-yr study of seasonal N content and flux in precipitation, snowpack, forest floor, and streamwater in order to assess the source of inorganic N outputs in streamflow from a small boreal watershed. Average precipitation N input was 3 kg ha-1 yr-1. The peak snowpack N content averaged 0.55 kg ha-1. The forest floor inorganic N pool was ??? 2 kg ha-1, eight times larger than monthly precipitation N input. The inorganic N pool size peaked in spring and early summer. Ninety percent of the forest floor inorganic N pool was made up of NH4+-N. Forest floor inorganic N pools generally increased with temperature. Net N mineralization was 15 kg ha-1 yr-1, and monthly rates peaked in early summer. During winter, the mean monthly net N mineralization rate was twice the peak snowpack N content. Streamwater NO3- concentration peaked in winter, and inorganic N output peaked in late fall. Beneath the dominant boreal forest species, net N mineralization rates were positively correlated (P < 0.05) with streamwater NO3- concentrations. Forest floor NO3- pools beneath alder [Alnus rugosa (Du Roi) Spreng] were positively correlated (P<0.01) to streamwater NO3- output. At the watershed mouth, streamwater NO3- concentrations were positively correlated (P < 0.05) with precipitation NO3- input and precipitation amount. The relatively small snowpack N content and seasonal precipitation N input compared to forest floor inorganic N pools and net N mineralization rates, the strong ecosystem retention of precipitation N inputs, and the seasonal streamwater NO3- concentration and output pattern all indicated that little streamwater NO3- came directly from precipitation or snowmelt.

Geostatistical Study of Precipitation on the Island of Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agou, Vasiliki D.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.

2015-04-01

Understanding and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation in the Mediterranean islands is an important topic of research, which is emphasized by alarming long-term predictions for increased drought conditions [4]. The analysis of records from drought-prone areas around the world has demonstrated that precipitation data are non-Gaussian. Typically, such data are fitted to the gamma distribution function and then transformed into a normalized index, the so-called Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [5]. The SPI can be defined for different time scales and has been applied to data from various regions [2]. Precipitation maps can be constructed using the stochastic method of Ordinary Kriging [1]. Such mathematical tools help to better understand the space-time variability and to plan water resources management. We present preliminary results of an ongoing investigation of the space-time precipitation distribution on the island of Crete (Greece). The study spans the time period from 1948 to 2012 and extends over an area of 8 336 km2. The data comprise monthly precipitation measured at 56 stations. Analysis of the data showed that the most severe drought occurred in 1950 followed by 1989, whereas the wettest year was 2002 followed by 1977. A spatial trend was observed with the spatially averaged annual precipitation in the West measured at about 450mm higher than in the East. Analysis of the data also revealed strong correlations between the precipitation in the western and eastern parts of the island. In addition to longitude, elevation (masl) was determined to be an important factor that exhibits strong linear correlation with precipitation. The precipitation data exhibit wet and dry periods with strong variability even during the wet period. Thus, fitting the data to specific probability distribution models has proved challenging. Different time scales, e.g. monthly, biannual, and annual have been investigated. Herein we focus on annual precipitation which are fitted locally to a three-parameter probability distribution, based on which a normalized index is derived. We use the Spartan variogram function to model space-time correlations, because it is more flexible than classical models [3]. The performance of the variogram model is tested by means of leave-one-out cross validation. The variogram model is then used in connection with ordinary kriging to generate precipitation maps for the entire island. In the future, we will explore the joint spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation patterns on Crete. References [1] P. Goovaerts. Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of precipitation. Journal of Hydrology, 228(1):113-129, 2000. [2] N. B. Guttman. Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. American Water Resource Association, 35(2):311-322, 1999. [3] D. T Hristopulos. Spartan Gibbs random field models for geostatistical applications. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 24(6):2125-2162, 2003. [4] A.G. Koutroulis, A.-E.K. Vrohidou, and I.K. Tsanis. Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought for the island of Crete. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12(2):206-226, 2011. [5] T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, page 179-184, Anaheim, California, 1993.

Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data for 518 Russian Meteorological Stations (1881 - 2010)

DOE Data Explorer

Bulygina, O. N. [All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre; Razuvaev, V. N. [All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre

2012-01-01

Over the past several decades, many climate datasets have been exchanged directly between the principal climate data centers of the United States (NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)) and the former-USSR/Russia (All-Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Center (RIHMI-WDC)). This data exchange has its roots in a bilateral initiative known as the Agreement on Protection of the Environment (Tatusko 1990). CDIAC has partnered with NCDC and RIHMI-WDC since the early 1990s to help make former-USSR climate datasets available to the public. The first former-USSR daily temperature and precipitation dataset released by CDIAC was initially created within the framework of the international cooperation between RIHMI-WDC and CDIAC and was published by CDIAC as NDP-040, consisting of data from 223 stations over the former USSR whose data were published in USSR Meteorological Monthly (Part 1: Daily Data). The database presented here consists of records from 518 Russian stations (excluding the former-USSR stations outside the Russian territory contained in NDP-040), for the most part extending through 2010. Records not extending through 2010 result from stations having closed or else their data were not published in Meteorological Monthly of CIS Stations (Part 1: Daily Data). The database was created from the digital media of the State Data Holding. The station inventory was arrived at using (a) the list of Roshydromet stations that are included in the Global Climate Observation Network (this list was approved by the Head of Roshydromet on 25 March 2004) and (b) the list of Roshydromet benchmark meteorological stations prepared by V.I. Kodratyuk, Head of the Department at Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory.

A 150 year precipitation record preserved in lake sediments of Lake Gahai in the Qaidam Basin, northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.

2012-12-01

A 150 year precipitation record preserved in lake sediments of Lake Gahai in the Qaidam Basin, northwest China Li Xiangzhong a, Liu Weiguoa, b a State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, IEE, CAS, Xi'an, 710075, China b School of Human Settlement and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China Abstract Usually, the oxygen isotopic compositions of ostracods from the lake sediments are interpreted as changes in effective precipitation, temperature and evaporation/input water ratio in a sub-arid or arid area. Here, we compare a 150-year-long oxygen-isotope record that was derived from ostracod carbonate from the sediment core (in a seven-year resolution) of Lake Gahai in the Qaidam Basin with meteorological data (precipitation) and tree-ring evidence for changing precipitation. Our results show that the increased precipitation accompanied a shift to less positive δ18O values in the lake water, and hence of the ostracod shells, whereas decreased precipitation coincides with the opposite in Lake Gahai over the past ~150 years. The sole occurrence of the ostracod E. mareotica also indicates that the lake's salinity may have experienced no marked change over the past 150 years. Therefore, we conclude that the oxygen isotopic compositions of ostracod shells can be used to indicate changes in precipitation for paleoclimatic reconstruction over a short time scale in Lake Gahai. Keywords: oxygen isotope; ostracod; precipitation; Lake Gahai, Qaidam Basin

Water quality variation during a strong El Niño event in 2016: a case study in Kampar River, Malaysia.

PubMed

Ng, Casey Keat-Chuan; Goh, Choo-Hou; Lin, Jia-Chun; Tan, Minn-Syenn; Bong, Willie; Yong, Chea-Soon; Chong, Jun-Yao; Ooi, Peter Aun-Chuan; Wong, Wey-Lim; Khoo, Gideon

2018-06-15

El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural forcing that affects global climate patterns, thereon influencing freshwater quality and security. In the advent of a strong El Niño warming event in 2016 which induced an extreme dry weather in Malaysia, water quality variation was investigated in Kampar River which supplies potable water to a population of 92,850. Sampling points were stratified into four ecohydrological units and 144 water samples were examined from October 2015 to March 2017. The Malaysian Water Quality Index (WQI) and some supplementary parameters were analysed in the context of reduced precipitation. Data shows that prolonged dry weather, episodic and sporadic pollution incidents have caused some anomalies in dissolved oxygen (DO), total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity and ammoniacal nitrogen (AN) values recorded and the possible factors are discussed. The month of March and August 2016 recorded the lowest precipitation, but the overall resultant WQI remained acceptable. Since the occurrence of a strong El Niño event is infrequent and far between in decadal time scale, this paper gives some rare insights that may be central to monitoring and managing freshwater resource that has a crucial impact to the mass population in the region of Southeast Asia.

Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index for Zagreb-Gric Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandzic, Kreso

2016-04-01

Conventional Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) and recent Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are compared for Zagreb-Gric weather station. Historical time series of PDSI and SPI are compared. For that purpose monthly precipitation, air temperature and air humidity data for Zagreb-Gric Observatory and period 1862-2012 are used. The results indicate that SPI is simpler for interpretation than PDSI. On the other side, lack of temperature within SPI, make impossible use of it on climate change applications. A comparison of PDSI and SPI for the periods from 1 to 24 months indicate the best agreement between PDSI and SPI for the periods from 6 to 12 months. In addition, correlation coefficients of determination between annual corn crop per hectare and SPI 9- months time scale and PDSI from May to October are shown as significant.

Efficacy and safety of an extemporaneous preparation of 2% ganciclovir eye drops in CMV anterior uveitis

PubMed Central

Keorochana, Narumon; Choontanom, Raveewan

2017-01-01

Background To evaluate the efficacy and safety of an extemporaneous preparation of 2% ganciclovir topical eye drops in cytomegalovirus (CMV) anterior uveitis because many studies have confirmed the benefits of topical ganciclovir in varying concentrations. Design The study employed a retrospective cohort design. Methods This study enrolled 11 eyes (11 patients) with CMV anterior uveitis. All cases were proved by positive PCR for CMV DNA from aqueous tapping and received topical 2% ganciclovir, applied every 2 hours daily as induction therapy then tapered off and stopped based on clinical response. Outcome measures were best-corrected visual acuity, anterior chamber cell, coin-shaped and other keratic precipitates, intraocular pressure (IOP), the number of antiglaucoma drugs used, the frequency of steroid eye drops used daily and side effects over a 12-month follow-up period. Side effects after applying topical 2% ganciclovir were recorded using questionnaires and eye examination. Results Mean age was 49.0±17.8 years. IOP, number of antiglaucoma drugs used and keratic precipitates decreased significantly at first week (p<0.013, p<0.024 and p<0.031, respectively) followed by decreased anterior chamber cells and significantly reduced frequency of applying steroid eye drops at 4 weeks (p<0.034 and p<0.017, respectively). Visual acuity significantly improved at 5 months continuously. All clinical improvement was maintained to 12 months, and keratic precipitates were eliminated in 90% of all cases. However, in 27% of discontinued medicine cases, inflammation was recurrent. No significance was observed in all factors between recurrent and non-recurrent groups. The most common side effect was eye irritation (27.27%). No severe complications from the medicine was detected. Conclusion Extemporaneous preparation topical 2% ganciclovir was effective and safely controlled CMV anterior uveitis. The medication is non-invasive, economical and convenient for hospitals where commercial topical ganciclovir is unavailable. PMID:29354718

Efficacy and safety of an extemporaneous preparation of 2% ganciclovir eye drops in CMV anterior uveitis.

PubMed

Keorochana, Narumon; Choontanom, Raveewan

2017-01-01

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of an extemporaneous preparation of 2% ganciclovir topical eye drops in cytomegalovirus (CMV) anterior uveitis because many studies have confirmed the benefits of topical ganciclovir in varying concentrations. The study employed a retrospective cohort design. This study enrolled 11 eyes (11 patients) with CMV anterior uveitis. All cases were proved by positive PCR for CMV DNA from aqueous tapping and received topical 2% ganciclovir, applied every 2 hours daily as induction therapy then tapered off and stopped based on clinical response. Outcome measures were best-corrected visual acuity, anterior chamber cell, coin-shaped and other keratic precipitates, intraocular pressure (IOP), the number of antiglaucoma drugs used, the frequency of steroid eye drops used daily and side effects over a 12-month follow-up period. Side effects after applying topical 2% ganciclovir were recorded using questionnaires and eye examination. Mean age was 49.0±17.8 years. IOP, number of antiglaucoma drugs used and keratic precipitates decreased significantly at first week (p<0.013, p<0.024 and p<0.031, respectively) followed by decreased anterior chamber cells and significantly reduced frequency of applying steroid eye drops at 4 weeks (p<0.034 and p<0.017, respectively). Visual acuity significantly improved at 5 months continuously. All clinical improvement was maintained to 12 months, and keratic precipitates were eliminated in 90% of all cases. However, in 27% of discontinued medicine cases, inflammation was recurrent. No significance was observed in all factors between recurrent and non-recurrent groups. The most common side effect was eye irritation (27.27%). No severe complications from the medicine was detected. Extemporaneous preparation topical 2% ganciclovir was effective and safely controlled CMV anterior uveitis. The medication is non-invasive, economical and convenient for hospitals where commercial topical ganciclovir is unavailable.

Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: A management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rad, Arash Modaresi; Ghahraman, Bijan; Khalili, Davar; Ghahremani, Zahra; Ardakani, Samira Ahmadi

2017-09-01

Conventionally, drought analysis has been limited to single drought category. Utilization of models incorporating multiple drought categories, can relax this limitation. A copula-based model is proposed, which uses meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics to assess drought events for ultimate management of water resources, at small scales, i.e., sub-watersheds. The chosen study area is a sub-basin located at Karkheh watershed (western Iran), with five raingauge stations and one hydrometric station, located upstream and at the outlet, respectively, which represent 41-year of data. Prior to drought analysis, time series of precipitation and streamflow records are investigated for possible dependency/significant trend. Considering semi-arid nature of the study area, boxplots are utilized to graphically capture the rainy months, which are used to evaluate the degree of correlation between streamflow and precipitation records via nonparametric correlations. Time scales of 3- and 12-month are considered, which are used to study vulnerability of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience, respectively. Among four common goodness of fit (GOF) tests, Anderson-Darling is found preferable for defining copula distribution functions through GOF measures, i.e., Akaike and Bayesian information criteria and normalized root mean square error. Furthermore, a GOF method is proposed to evaluate the uncertainty associated with different copula models using the concept of entropy. A new bivariate drought modeling approach is proposed through copulas. The proposed index named standardized precipitation-streamflow index (SPSI) unlike common indices which are used in conjunction with station data, can be applied on a regional basis. SPDI is compared with widely applied streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). To assess the homogeneity of the dependence structure of SPSI regionally, Kendall-τ and upper tail coefficient relation is investigated for all stations located within the region. According to results, SPSI similar to nonparametric multivariate standardized drought index (NMSDI) was able to detect both onset of droughts dominated by precipitation as is similarly indicated by SPI and persistence of droughts dominated by streamflow as is similarly indicated by SDI. It also captures discordant case of normal period precipitation with dry period streamflow and vice versa. This makes SPSI a powerful tool for estimating a more practical and realistic drought condition. Finally, combination of severity-duration-frequency (SDF) of drought events through copulas resulted in SDF curves that can be used to obtain the recurrence of extreme droughts and assess drought related ecosystem failure or to aid in optimization of water resources allocation. Results indicated that the newly proposed index (SPSI) is able to represent two main characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought (drought onset and persistency) and also providing an accurate estimation of the recurrence interval of extreme droughts. The procedures can be used to undertake proactive water resource management and planning to assure water security and sustainable agriculture and ecosystem survival for regions experiencing extreme droughts.

Heading Toward Launch with the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David T.; Nelkin, Eric J.; Adler, Robert F.

2012-01-01

The Day-l algorithm for computing combined precipitation estimates in GPM is the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG). We plan for the period of record to encompass both the TRMM and GPM eras, and the coverage to extend to fully global as experience is gained in the difficult high-latitude environment. IMERG is being developed as a unified U.S. algorithm that takes advantage of strengths in the three groups that are contributing expertise: 1) the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), which addresses inter-satellite calibration of precipitation estimates and monthly scale combination of satellite and gauge analyses; 2) the CPC Morphing algorithm with Kalman Filtering (KF-CMORPH), which provides quality-weighted time interpolation of precipitation patterns following cloud motion; and 3) the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks using a Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), which provides a neural-network-based scheme for generating microwave-calibrated precipitation estimates from geosynchronous infrared brightness temperatures. In this talk we summarize the major building blocks and important design issues driven by user needs and practical data issues. One concept being pioneered by the IMERG team is that the code system should produce estimates for the same time period but at different latencies to support the requirements of different groups of users. Another user requirement is that all these runs must be reprocessed as new IMERG versions are introduced. IMERG's status at meeting time will be summarized, and the processing scenario in the transition from TRMM to GPM will be laid out. Initially, IMERG will be run with TRMM-based calibration, and then a conversion to a GPM-based calibration will be employed after the GPM sensor products are validated. A complete reprocessing will be computed, which will complete the transition from TMPA.

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2016-01-01

This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at 1-month leads. SST forcing (La Nia conditions) contributed to the broader continental-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the Southeast. It was further found that 1) the 1 March atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern United States in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability), suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric/stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex; and 2) stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.

South America Monsoon variability on millennial to multi-centennial time scale during the Holocene in central eastern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strikis, N. M.; Cruz, F. W.; Cheng, H.; Karmann, I.; Vuille, M.; Edwards, R.; Wang, X.; Paula, M. S.; Novello, V. F.; Auler, A.

2011-12-01

A paleoprecipitation reconstruction based on high resolution and well-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records shows that the monsoon precipitation over central eastern Brazil underwent to strong variations on millennial to multi-centennial time-scales during the Holocene. This new record indicates that abrupt events of increase in monsoon precipitation are correlated to Bond events 6, 5 and 4 and also with 8.2 ky event during the early and mid-Holocene, with a mean amplitude of 1.5 % (PDB). The pacing and structure of such events are general consistent with variations in solar activity suggested by atmospheric Δ14 C records. In the late-Holocene, abrupt events of increase in monsoon precipitation peaking at 3.2, 2.7 and 2.3 ky B.P. are approximately synchronous with periods of low solar minima. In this regard, the most prominent event occurred during the late Holocene occurred at ~2.7 ky B.P. In addition, these positive anomalies of the precipitation recorded in central eastern Brazil are also in good agreement with variations in Titicaca lake level. The good correspondence between the speleothem and marine records imply that the variations in the north Atlantic sea surface temperature is the main forcing for abrupt millennial to multi-centennial precipitations variation within the region under influence of South American Monsoon.

Analyses of Water-Level Differentials and Variations in Recharge between the Surficial and Upper Floridan Aquifers in East-Central and Northeast Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, Louis C.

2007-01-01

Continuous (daily) water-level data collected at 29 monitoring-well cluster sites were analyzed to document variations in recharge between the surficial (SAS) and Floridan (FAS) aquifer systems in east-central and northeast Florida. According to Darcy's law, changes in the water-level differentials (differentials) between these systems are proportional to changes in the vertical flux of water between them. Variations in FAS recharge rates are of interest to water-resource managers because changes in these rates affect sensitive water resources subject to minimum flow and water-level restrictions, such as the amount of water discharged from springs and changes in lake and wetland water levels. Mean daily differentials between 2000-2004 ranged from less than 1 foot at a site in east-central Florida to more than 114 feet at a site in northeast Florida. Sites with greater mean differentials exhibited lower percentage-based ranges in fluctuations than did sites with lower mean differentials. When averaged for all sites, differentials (and thus Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) recharge rates) decreased by about 18 percent per site between 2000-2004. This pattern can be associated with reductions in ground-water withdrawals from the UFA that occurred after 2000 as the peninsula emerged from a 3-year drought. Monthly differentials exhibited a well-defined seasonal pattern in which UFA recharge rates were greatest during the dry spring months (8 percent above the 5-year daily mean in May) and least during the wetter summer/early fall months (4 percent below the 5-year daily mean in October). In contrast, differentials exceeded the 5-year daily mean in all but 2 months of 2000, indicative of relatively high ground-water withdrawals throughout the year. On average, the UFA received about 6 percent more recharge at the project sites in 2000 than between 2000-2004. No statistically significant correlations were detected between monthly differentials and precipitation at 27 of the 29 sites between 2000-2004. For longer periods of record, double-mass plots of differentials and precipitation indicate the UFA recharge rate increased by about 34 percent at a site in west Orange County between the periods of 1974-1983 and 1983-2004. Given the absence of a trend in rainfall, the increase can likely be attributed to ground-water development. At a site in south Lake County, double-mass plots indicate that dredging of the Palatlakaha River and other nearby drainage improvements may have reduced recharge rates to the UFA by about 30 percent from the period between 1960-1965 to 1965-1970. Water-level differentials were positively correlated with land-surface altitude. The correlation was particularly strong for the 11 sites located in physiographically-defined ridge areas (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.89). Weaker yet statistically significant negative correlations were detected between differentials and the model-calibrated leakance and thickness of the intermediate confining unit (ICU). Recharge to the UFA decreased by about 14 percent at the Charlotte Street monitoring-well site in Seminole County between 2000-2004. The decrease can be attributed to a reduction in nearby pumpage, from 57 to 49 million gallons per day over the 5-year period, with a subsequent recovery in UFA water levels that exceeded those in the SAS. Differentials at Charlotte were influenced by system memory of both precipitation and pumpage. While not statistically correlated with monthly precipitation, monthly differentials were well correlated with the 9-month moving average of precipitation. Similarly, differentials were best correlated with the 2-month moving average of pumpage. The polynomial function that quantifies the correlation between differentials and the 2-month moving average of pumpage indicates that, in terms of UFA recharge rates, the system was closer to a steady-state condition in 2000 when pumpage rates were high, than from 2001-2004 when p

Comparison of Globally Complete Versions of GPCP and CMAP Monthly Precipitation Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George

1998-01-01

In this study two global observational precipitation products, namely the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's (GPCP) community data set and CPC's Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), are compared on global to regional scales in the context of the different satellite and gauge data inputs and merger techniques. The average annual global precipitation rates, calculated from data common in regions/times to both GPCP and CMAP, are similar for the two. However, CMAP is larger than GPCP in the tropics because: (1) CMAP values in the tropics are adjusted month-by month to atoll gauge data in the West Pacific, which are greater than any satellite observations used; and (2) CMAP is produced from a linear combination of data inputs, which tends to give higher values than the microwave emission estimates alone to which the inputs are adjusted in the GPCP merger over the ocean. The CMAP month-to-month adjustment to the atolls also appears to introduce temporal variations throughout the tropics which are not detected by satellite-only products. On the other hand, GPCP is larger than CMAP in the high-latitude oceans, where CMAP includes the scattering based microwave estimates which are consistently smaller than the emission estimates used in both techniques. Also, in the polar regions GPCP transitions from the emission microwave estimates to the larger TOVS-based estimates. Finally, in high-latitude land areas GPCP can be significantly larger than CMAP because GPCP attempts to correct the gauge estimates for errors due to wind loss effects.

The Primacy of Multidecadal to Centennial Variability Over Late Holocene Forced Change of the Asian Monsoon on the Southern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conroy, J. L.; Hudson, A. M.; Overpeck, J. T.; Liu, K. B.; Luo, W.; Cole, J. E.

2016-12-01

The nature of multidecadal to centennial variability of the Asian monsoon remains largely unknown. Here we use the sediment record from a closed-basin lake in southern Tibet, Ngamring Tso, to assess summer monsoon precipitation from 4100 cal yr BP to present. The first principal component of the Ngamring Tso grain size record correlates significantly with observed June-September precipitation. From CE 1940-2007, grain size decreased with increasing summer precipitation and increased with decreasing summer precipitation. Satellite images of Ngamring Tso suggest precipitation-induced changes in lake depth or area likely govern grain size variability. Prolonged periods of weak summer monsoon precipitation occurred from 2800-2600 cal yr BP, 2500-2300 cal yr BP, and 1600-400 cal yr BP. A trend toward increased summer precipitation began around 1000 cal yr BP, with above-average summer precipitation from 400 cal yr BP to present, peaking between 200-100 cal yr BP. Dry and wet periods are coincident with dry and wet periods in other south-central Tibetan lake sediment records and with regional proxies of the ISM and EASM, indicating south-central Tibet is influenced by both monsoon subsystems. 20th century precipitation variability in southern Tibet falls within the range of natural variability in the last 4100 years, and does not show a clear trend of increasing precipitation as projected by models. Instead, it appears that poorly understood internal modes of monsoon variability remained influential throughout the last 4100 years. Substantial multidecadal to centennial-scale variability will thus complicate our ability to project future anthropogenic changes in the region's monsoon precipitation.

Comparison of GPCP Monthly and Daily Precipitation Estimates with High-Latitude Gauge Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolvin, David T.; Adler, Robert G.; Nelkin, Eric J.; Poutiainen, Jani

2008-01-01

It is very important to know how much rain and snow falls around the world for uses that range from crop forecasting to disaster response, drought monitoring to flood forecasting, and weather analysis to climate research. Precipitation is usually measured with rain gauges, but rain gauges don t exist in areas that are sparsely populated, which tends to be a good portion of the globe. To overcome this, meteorologists use satellite data to estimate global precipitation. However, it is difficult to estimate rain and especially snow in cold climates using most current satellites. The satellite sensors are often "confused" by a snowy or frozen surface and therefore cannot distinguish precipitation. One commonly used satellite-based precipitation data set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, overcomes this frozen-surface problem through the innovative use of two sources of satellite data, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Though the GPCP estimates are generally considered a very reliable source of precipitation, it has been difficult to assess the quality of these estimates in cold climates due to the lack of gauges. Recently, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has provided a 12-year span of high-quality daily rain gauge observations, covering all of Finland, that can be used to compare with the GPCP data to determine how well the satellites estimate cold-climate precipitation. Comparison of the monthly GPCP satellite-based estimates and the FMI gauge observations shows remarkably good agreement, with the GPCP estimates being 6% lower in the amount of precipitation than the FMI observations. Furthermore, the month-to-month correlation between the GPCP and FMI is very high at 0.95 (1.0 is perfect). The daily GPCP estimates replicate the FMI daily occurrences of precipitation with a correlation of 0.55 in the summer and 0.45 in the winter. The winter result indicates the GPCP estimates have skill in "seeing" snowfall, which is the most challenging situation. Thus, the GPCP data set successfully overcomes a current limitation in satellite meteorology, namely the estimation of cold-climate precipitation. The success of the GPCP data set bodes well for future missions, whose instrumentation is specifically designed to give even more information for addressing cold-climate precipitation.

Transfer of Satellite Rainfall Uncertainty from Gauged to Ungauged Regions at Regional and Seasonal Timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Ling; Hossain, Faisal; Huffman, George J.

2010-01-01

Hydrologists and other users need to know the uncertainty of the satellite rainfall data sets across the range of time/space scales over the whole domain of the data set. Here, uncertainty' refers to the general concept of the deviation' of an estimate from the reference (or ground truth) where the deviation may be defined in multiple ways. This uncertainty information can provide insight to the user on the realistic limits of utility, such as hydrologic predictability, that can be achieved with these satellite rainfall data sets. However, satellite rainfall uncertainty estimation requires ground validation (GV) precipitation data. On the other hand, satellite data will be most useful over regions that lack GV data, for example developing countries. This paper addresses the open issues for developing an appropriate uncertainty transfer scheme that can routinely estimate various uncertainty metrics across the globe by leveraging a combination of spatially-dense GV data and temporally sparse surrogate (or proxy) GV data, such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar. The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products over the US spanning a record of 6 years are used as a representative example of satellite rainfall. It is shown that there exists a quantifiable spatial structure in the uncertainty of satellite data for spatial interpolation. Probabilistic analysis of sampling offered by the existing constellation of passive microwave sensors indicate that transfer of uncertainty for hydrologic applications may be effective at daily time scales or higher during the GPM era. Finally, a commonly used spatial interpolation technique (kriging), that leverages the spatial correlation of estimation uncertainty, is assessed at climatologic, seasonal, monthly and weekly timescales. It is found that the effectiveness of kriging is sensitive to the type of uncertainty metric, time scale of transfer and the density of GV data within the transfer domain. Transfer accuracy is lowest at weekly timescales with the error doubling from monthly to weekly.However, at very low GV data density (<20% of the domain), the transfer accuracy is too low to show any distinction as a function of the timescale of transfer.

Impact of burned areas on the northern African seasonal climate from the perspective of regional modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, Fernando; Xue, Yongkang; Okin, Gregory S.

2016-12-01

This study investigates the impact of burned areas on the surface energy balance and monthly precipitation in northern Africa as simulated by a state-of-the-art regional model. Mean burned area fraction derived from MODIS date of burning product was implemented in a set of 1-year long WRF-NMM/SSiB2 model simulations. Vegetation cover fraction and LAI were degraded daily based on mean burned area fraction and on the survival rate for each vegetation land cover type. Additionally, ground darkening associated with wildfire-induced ash and charcoal deposition was imposed through lower ground albedo for a period after burning. In general, wildfire-induced vegetation and ground condition deterioration increased mean surface albedo by exposing the brighter bare ground, which in turn caused a decrease in monthly surface net radiation. On average, the wildfire-season albedo increase was approximately 6.3 % over the Sahel. The associated decrease in surface available energy caused a drop in surface sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during the dry months of winter and early spring, which gradually transitioned to a more substantial decrease in surface evapotranspiration in April and May that lessened throughout the rainy season. Overall, post-fire land condition deterioration resulted in a decrease in precipitation over sub-Saharan Africa, associated with the weakening of the West African monsoon progression through the region. A decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence was observed in the burned area simulations, which played a dominant role in reducing precipitation in the area, especially in the months preceding the monsoon onset. The areas with the largest precipitation impact were those covered by savannas and rainforests, where annual precipitation decreased by 3.8 and 3.3 %, respectively. The resulting precipitation decrease and vegetation deterioration caused a drop in gross primary productivity in the region, which was strongest in late winter and early spring. This study suggests the cooling and drying of atmosphere induced by burned areas caused the strengthening of subsidence during pre-onset and weakening of upward atmospheric motion during onset and mature stages of the monsoon leading to a waning of convective instability and precipitation. Monthly mid-tropospheric vertical wind showed a strengthening of downward motion in winter and spring seasons, and weakening of upward movement during the rainy months. Furthermore, precipitation energy analysis revealed that most of precipitation decrease originated from convective events, which supports the hypothesis of reduced convective instability due to wildfires.

Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate.

PubMed

Wang, Jin-feng; Guo, Yan-Sha; Christakos, George; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Liao, Yi-Lan; Li, Zhong-Jie; Li, Xiao-Zhou; Lai, Sheng-Jie; Chen, Hong-Yan

2011-04-05

The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease. HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation) types. HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.

Site-specific high-resolution models of the monsoon for Africa and Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryson, R. A.; Bryson, R. U.

2000-11-01

Using the macrophysical climate model of Bryson [Bryson, R.A., 1992. A macrophysical model of the Holocene intertropical convergence and jetstream positions and rainfall for the Saharan region. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 47, pp. 247-258], it is possible to calculate the monthly latitude of the jetstream and the latitude of the subtropical anticyclones. From these and modern climatic data, it is possible to model the two-century mean latitude of the intertropical convergence (ITC) month by month and estimate the monthly monsoon rainfall using the ITC-Rainfall model of Ilesanmi [Ilesanmi, O.O., 1971. An empirical formulation of an ITD rainfall model for the tropics — a case study of Nigeria. J. Appl. Meteorol., 10, pp. 882-891] and similar relationships. Input to this model is only calculated radiation and atmospheric optical depth estimated from a database of global volcanicity. Recent work has shown that it is possible to extend these estimates to both precipitation and temperature at specific sites, even in mountainous terrain. Testing of the model against archaeological records and climatic proxies is now underway, as well as refining the fundamental model. Preliminary indications are that the timing of fluctuations in the local climate is very well modeled. Especially well matched are the modeled Nile flood based on calculated rainfall on the Blue and White Nile watersheds and the level of Lake Moeris [Hassan, F., 1985. Holocene lakes and prehistoric settlements of the Western Faiyum, Egypt. J. Archaeol. Res., 13, pp. 483-501]. Modeled precipitation histories for specific sites in China, Thailand, the Arabian Peninsula, and North Africa will be presented and contrasted with the simulated rainfall history of Mesopotamia.

Comparison of artificial intelligence techniques for prediction of soil temperatures in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Citakoglu, Hatice

2017-10-01

Soil temperature is a meteorological data directly affecting the formation and development of plants of all kinds. Soil temperatures are usually estimated with various models including the artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. Soil temperatures along with other climate data are recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) at specific locations all over Turkey. Soil temperatures are commonly measured at 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-cm depths below the soil surface. In this study, the soil temperature data in monthly units measured at 261 stations in Turkey having records of at least 20 years were used to develop relevant models. Different input combinations were tested in the ANN and ANFIS models to estimate soil temperatures, and the best combination of significant explanatory variables turns out to be monthly minimum and maximum air temperatures, calendar month number, depth of soil, and monthly precipitation. Next, three standard error terms (mean absolute error (MAE, °C), root mean squared error (RMSE, °C), and determination coefficient ( R 2 )) were employed to check the reliability of the test data results obtained through the ANN, ANFIS, and MLR models. ANFIS (RMSE 1.99; MAE 1.09; R 2 0.98) is found to outperform both ANN and MLR (RMSE 5.80, 8.89; MAE 1.89, 2.36; R 2 0.93, 0.91) in estimating soil temperature in Turkey.

Monitoring precipitation chemistry on the Monongahela National Forest

Treesearch

John B. Currier; Gerald M. Aubertin

1976-01-01

Personnel from the Monongahela National Forest and the Northeastern Forest Experiment Station are collaborating in forest-wide monitoring of precipitation chemistry. Present monitoring facilities consist of one continuous precipitation collector/pH recorder and 12 precipitation collectors. Samples collected in these facilities are picked up and analyzed biweekly for...

United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.

1999-01-01

Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate.

PubMed

Twidwell, Dirac; Wonkka, Carissa L; Bielski, Christine H; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G; Drozda, Jacob; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Johnson, Julia; Powell, Larkin A; Roberts, Caleb P

2018-02-23

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g., historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate-change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. We assessed the potential impact of climate-change scenarios on the rates at which grasslands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are authorized for emergency harvesting (i.e., biomass removal) for agricultural use, which can occur when precipitation for the previous 4 months is below 40% of the normal or historical mean precipitation for that 4-month period. We developed and analyzed scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections showed the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28% based on long-term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario that reflected continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing-season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and were subject to a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario with rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario-impact analysis indicated that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP would be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate-change projections significantly depart from the current consensus. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Evapotranspiration response to multi-year dry periods in the semi-arid western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rungee, J. P., II; Bales, R. C.

2017-12-01

Analysis of measured evapotranspiration shows multi-year regolith water storage can support evapotranspiration for years into a multi-year dry period. Measurements at 25 flux-tower sites in the semi-arid western United States, distributed across five primary land-cover types, show both resilience and vulnerability to multi-year dry periods. Average evapotranspiration ranged from about 700+200 mm per water year (October-September) in evergreen needleleaf forests to 350+150 mm per water year in grasslands and open shrublands. On average, in California's Mediterranean climate almost half of the water-year evapotranspiration is supported by seasonal and/or multi-year regolith water storage, compared to a characteristic 20 to 30 percent value of energy-limited and inland sites. Below 35oN latitude, water-year evapotranspiration exceeded estimated precipitation in over half of the years on record. For non-energy-limited sites, water-year evapotranspiration increased with precipitation up to a maximum water-year evapotranspiration value of about 900, 750, 600, 425 and 300 mm per water year for evergreen needleleaf forests, mixed forests, woody savannas, grasslands and open shrublands, respectively. There were 15 multi-year dry periods on record that exhibited either an attenuation in evapotranspiration, defined as an annual value below 80% of the wet-year average, or withdrawal from multi-year storage. A multi-year dry period was defined as three or more consecutive water years in which all water-year precipitation values and the mean period value were in the lower 50 and 35 percent of the historical record, respectively. For sites exhibiting evapotranspiration attenuation, resistance to multi-year dry periods ranged from 9 to 49 months, drafting as much as 444 mm of regolith storage. At some mountain sites regolith storage provided up to 678 mm, almost the equivalent of the average water-year evapotranspiration for these sites, over the extent of the multi-year dry period.

Seasonal predictions of precipitation in the Aksu-Tarim River basin for improved water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Heike; Snow, Julie A.; Su, Buda; Jiang, Tong

2016-12-01

Since the 1950s, the population in the arid to hyperarid Tarim River basin has grown rapidly concurrent with an expansion of irrigated agriculture. This threatens the Tarim River basin's natural ecosystems and causes water shortages, even though increased discharges in the headwaters have been observed more recently. These increases have mainly been attributed to receding glaciers and are projected to cease when the glaciers are unable to provide sufficient amounts of meltwater. Under these circumstances water management will face a serious challenge in adapting its strategies to changes in river discharge, which to a greater extent will depend on changes in precipitation. In this paper, we aim to develop accurate seasonal predictions of precipitation to improve water resources management. Possible predictors of precipitation for the Tarim River basin were either downloaded directly or calculated using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 and NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V3b data in monthly resolution. To evaluate the significance of the predictors, they were then correlated with the monthly precipitation dataset GPCCv6 extracted for the Tarim River basin for the period 1961 to 2010. Prior to the Spearman rank correlation analyses, the precipitation data were averaged over the subbasins of the Tarim River. The strongest correlations were mainly detected with lead times of four and five months. Finally, an artificial neural network model, namely a multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a multiple linear regression (LR) model were developed each in two different configurations for the Aksu River subbasin, predicting precipitation five months in advance. Overall, the MLP using all predictors shows the best performance. The performance of both models drops only slightly when restricting the model input to the SST of the Black Sea and the Siberian High Intensity (SHI) pointing towards their importance as predictors.

Forecasting Precipitation over the MENA Region: A Data Mining and Remote Sensing Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elkadiri, R.; Sultan, M.; Elbayoumi, T.; Chouinard, K.

2015-12-01

We developed and applied an integrated approach to construct predictive tools with lead times of 1 to 12 months to forecast precipitation amounts over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire and analyze temporal remote sensing-based precipitation datasets (i.e. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM]) over five main water source regions in the MENA area (i.e. Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Red Sea Hills of Yemen, and Blue Nile and White Nile source areas) throughout the investigation period (1998 to 2015), (2) acquire and extract monthly values for all of the climatic indices that are likely to influence the climatic patterns over the MENA region (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); and (3) apply data mining methods to extract relationships between the observed precipitation and the controlling factors (climatic indices) and use predictive tools to forecast monthly precipitation over each of the identified pilot study areas. Preliminary results indicate that by using the period from January 1998 until August 2012 for model training and the period from September 2012 to January 2015 for testing, precipitation can be successfully predicted with a three-months lead over South West Yemen, Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Blue Nile sources and White Nile sources with confidence (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.911, 0.823, 0.807, 0.801 and 0.895 respectively). Future work will focus on applying this technique for prediction of precipitation over each of the climatically contiguous areas of the MENA region. If our efforts are successful, our findings will lead the way to the development and implementation of sound water management scenarios for the MENA countries.

Arctic Climate and Terrestrial Vegetation Responses During the Middle to Late Eocene and Early Oligocene: Colder Winters Preceded Cool-Down.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, D. R.; Eldrett, J.

2006-12-01

The late Eocene to early Oligocene is recognized as an interval of substantial change in the global climate, with isotopic proxies of climate indicating a significant drop in sea surface temperatures. Other studies have shown, however that at middle latitudes that terrestrial mean annual temperature did not change significantly over this interval, and that the major change was likely a shift towards a greater range of seasonal temperatures; colder winters and warmer summers. Previous analyses of high latitude (Arctic) middle Eocene climate using both leaf physiognomic analysis and qualitative analysis of identified nearest living relatives of terrestrial floras indicated upper microthermal environments (mean annual temp. or MAT ca 10°C but perhaps as high as 15°C, coldest month mean temp. or CMMT ca 0°C) for Axel Heiberg Island in the Arctic Archipelago, but did not address precipitation nor provide data on the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the Arctic. Presented here are new estimates of temperature and precipitation (annual and season amounts) for the Arctic based on NLR analysis of terrestrial plant palynomorphs (spores and pollen) from the ODP 913B and 985 cores from near Greenland. The record of climate for the Greenland cores show a similar climate in the middle Eocene to that previously estimated for Axel Heiberg Island further to the west, with MAT 10- 15°C but with CMMT >5°C. Precipitation was high (mean annual precip. or MAP >180 cm/yr), although with large uncertainties attached to the estimate. The climate proxy record for the late Eocene to early Oligocene shows a lack of change in MAT and MAP over the time interval. Consistent with other published records at middle latitudes, however, winter temperatures (as CMMT) show greater variability leading up to the E-O boundary, and consistently cooler values in the early Oligocene (CMMT <5°C) than recorded for most of the middle to late Eocene record (CMMT >5°C). Plant groups sensitive to freezing such as palms and the floating water fern Azolla were present in the warm parts of the record, but are absent from the latest Eocene and early Oligocene record. These data provide further evidence that the primary change in the global climate system in the E-O transition was a shift towards more extreme seasonal temperature ranges, rather than a drop in the mean temperature.

Gaps in patient care practices to prevent hospital-acquired delirium.

PubMed

Alagiakrishnan, Kannayiram; Marrie, Thomas; Rolfson, Darryl; Coke, William; Camicioli, Richard; Duggan, D'Arcy; Launhardt, Bonnie; Fisher, Bruce; Gordon, Debbie; Hervas-Malo, Marilou; Magee, Bernice; Wiens, Cheryl

2009-10-01

To evaluate the current patient care practices that address the predisposing and precipitating factors contributing to the prevention of hospital-acquired delirium in the elderly. Prospective cohort (observational) study. Patients 65 years of age and older who were admitted to medical teaching units at the University of Alberta Hospital in Edmonton over a period of 7 months and who were at risk of delirium. Medical teaching units at the University of Alberta. Demographic data and information on predisposing factors for hospital-acquired delirium were obtained for all patients. Documented clinical practices that likely prevent common precipitants of delirium were also recorded. Of the 132 patients enrolled, 20 (15.2%) developed hospital-acquired delirium. At the time of admission several predisposing factors were not documented (eg, possible cognitive impairment 16 [12%], visual impairment 52 [39.4%], and functional status of activities of daily living 99 [75.0%]). Recorded precipitating factors included catheter use, screening for dehydration, and medications. Catheters were used in 35 (26.5%) patients, and fluid intake-and-output charting assessed dehydration in 57 (43.2%) patients. At the time of admission there was no documentation of hearing status in 69 (52.3%) patients and aspiration risk in 104 (78.8%) patients. After admission, reorientation measures were documented in only 16 (12.1%) patients. Although all patients had brief mental status evaluations performed once daily, this was not noted to occur twice daily (which would provide important information about fluctuation of mental status) and there was no formal attention span testing. In this study, hospital-acquired delirium was also associated with increased mortality (P < .004), increased length of stay (P < .007), and increased institutionalization (P < .027). Gaps were noted in patient care practices that might contribute to hospital-acquired delirium and also in measures to identify the development of delirium at an earlier stage. Effort should be made to educate health professionals to identify the predisposing and precipitating factors, and to screen for delirium. This might improve the prevention of delirium.

The fractal-multifractal method and temporal resolution: Application to precipitation and streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maskey, M.; Puente, C. E.; Sivakumar, B.

2017-12-01

In the past, we have established that the deterministic fractal-multifractal (FM) method is a promising geometric tool to analyze hydro-climatic variables, such as precipitation, river flow, and temperature. In this study, we address the issue of temporal resolution to advance the suitability and usefulness of the FM approach in hydro-climate. Specifically, we elucidate the evolution of FM geometric parameters as computed at different time scales ranging from a day to a month (30-day) in increments of a day. For this purpose, both rainfall and river discharge records at Sacramento, California gathered over a year are encoded at different time scales. The analysis reveals that: (a) the FM approach yields faithful encodings of both kinds of data sets at the resolutions considered with reasonably small errors; and (b) the "best" FM parameters ultimately converge when the resolution is increased, thus allowing visualizing both hydrologic attributes. By addressing the scalability of the geometric patterns, these results further advance the suitability of the FM approach.

A global assessment of climate-water quality relationships in large rivers: an elasticity perspective.

PubMed

Jiang, Jiping; Sharma, Ashish; Sivakumar, Bellie; Wang, Peng

2014-01-15

To uncover climate-water quality relationships in large rivers on a global scale, the present study investigates the climate elasticity of river water quality (CEWQ) using long-term monthly records observed at 14 large rivers. Temperature and precipitation elasticities of 12 water quality parameters, highlighted by N- and P-nutrients, are assessed. General observations on elasticity values show the usefulness of this approach to describe the magnitude of stream water quality responses to climate change, which improves that of simple statistical correlation. Sensitivity type, intensity and variability rank of CEWQ are reported and specific characteristics and mechanism of elasticity of nutrient parameters are also revealed. Among them, the performance of ammonia, total phosphorus-air temperature models, and nitrite, orthophosphorus-precipitation models are the best. Spatial and temporal assessment shows that precipitation elasticity is more variable in space than temperature elasticity and that seasonal variation is more evident for precipitation elasticity than for temperature elasticity. Moreover, both anthropogenic activities and environmental factors are found to impact CEWQ for select variables. The major relationships that can be inferred include: (1) human population has a strong linear correlation with temperature elasticity of turbidity and total phosphorus; and (2) latitude has a strong linear correlation with precipitation elasticity of turbidity and N nutrients. As this work improves our understanding of the relation between climate factors and surface water quality, it is potentially helpful for investigating the effect of climate change on water quality in large rivers, such as on the long-term change of nutrient concentrations. © 2013.

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the Mediterranean region based on high resolution gridded data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polychroni, Iliana; Nastos, Panagiotis

2017-04-01

Mediterranean water resource system is heavily influenced by changes in climate conditions, which in turns affect significantly the socioeconomic development, specifically over coastal areas. Taking into consideration that the surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century and the mean precipitation is likely to decrease in mid-latitude dry regions, according to IPCC 2014, we confronted the challenge to study the drought over the Mediterranean region by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), defined as the difference from the mean for a specified time period divided by the standard deviation, where the mean and standard deviation are determined from past records. Drought is a long-range phenomenon that affects the Mediterranean. The drought not only affects food production but also has severe environmental, economic and social impacts. The objective of this study is to assess and analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of the SPI for 3-, 6-, 9-, 12- month timescales, during the period 1950-2015. For this purpose, we processed high resolution gridded daily precipitation datasets (0.25° x 0.25°), based on the E-OBS dataset from ECA&D. Mean SPI patterns and trends for the whole examined period, as well as successive 30-year periods, were assessed by using R-project. Moreover, the influence of the well-known atmospheric circulation index of the wider region of Europe, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), on the SPI over the Mediterranean was considered necessary to evaluate, because NAOI strongly modulates precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean.

Spatial patterns of soil moisture connected to monthly-seasonal precipitation variability in a monsoon region

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2003-01-01

The relations between monthly-seasonal soil moisture and precipitation variability are investigated by identifying the coupled patterns of the two hydrological fields using singular value decomposition (SVD). SVD is a technique of principal component analysis similar to empirical orthogonal knctions (EOF). However, it is applied to two variables simultaneously and is...

[Wave-type time series variation of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors].

PubMed

Bi, Xiaoli; Wang, Hui; Ge, Jianping

2005-02-01

Based on the 1992-1996 data of 1 km monthly NDVI and those of the monthly precipitation and mean temperature collected by 400 standard meteorological stations in China, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors in different climate districts of this country. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between monthly precipitations and NDVI. The wave-type time series model could simulate well the temporal dynamic changes of the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors, and the simulated results of the correlation between NDVI and precipitation was better than that between NDVI and temperature. The correlation coefficients (R2) were 0.91 and 0.86, respectively for the whole country.

Mapping the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of N and O Isotopes in Precipitation Nitrate Across the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, E. M.; Kendall, C.; Harlin, K.; Butler, T.; Carlton, R.; Wankel, S.

2004-12-01

Atmospheric deposition of N is a universally important pathway by which ecosystems receive fixed, bioavailable N. Since the 1880s, atmospheric deposition of N has become increasingly important, as NOx emissions from fossil fuel combustion have steadily increased. In particular, the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic U.S. receive some of the highest rates of nitrate wet deposition in the country, causing a cascade of detrimental effects. In order to effectively mediate the impacts of nitrate deposition, it is critical to understand the dynamics among NOx sources, atmospheric chemical transformations and transport, and the characteristics of the nitrate that is ultimately deposited. To address this need, this research takes advantage of recent methodological improvements, coupled with national networks (NADP, AIRMoN) of archived precipitation, to characterize N and O isotopic composition of nitrate in precipitation across the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic U.S. We investigate the critical question of whether variations in \\delta15N and \\delta18O of nitrate wet deposition are mainly a function of atmospheric processes (e.g., seasonal variations in reaction pathways) or variable NOx source contributions (e.g., power plant emissions, vehicle exhaust). Spatial and seasonal variability of \\delta15N and \\delta18O is investigated using bimonthly archived samples from 2000. Furthermore, a high resolution record of daily precipitation from a single site is used to highlight within-season isotopic variability. Potential correlations between isotopic values and major NOx sources are explored using EPA datasets for monthly county-level emissions from two major NOx sources, electric generating units and on-road vehicles. Analysis of samples for \\Delta17O is in progress. A key concern regarding analysis of archived samples is nitrate preservation. We tested the stability of nitrate concentrations, and hence potential isotopic fractionations, by reanalyzing filtered, refrigerated, archived NADP samples with a range of nitrate and ammonium concentrations. We found highly significant correlations (R2=0.9995, p<0.001, n=28) between nitrate concentrations measured in 2000 and 2003, indicating that no major alterations had occurred. With regard to spatial patterns, preliminary isotopic analyses indicate that \\delta15N of precipitation nitrate varies considerably among states. Moreover, initial data corroborate previously reported seasonal trends in both \\delta15N and \\delta18O, with higher values in the colder months. Seasonal trends in \\delta15N are remarkably consistent, with up to an 8 \\permil difference between winter and summer months. \\delta18O values of nitrate are generally higher and have a smaller range than previously reported for precipitation, with values ranging from +60 to +90 \\permil. In addition, archived daily precipitation collected during 2000 from a single AIRMoN site give insight into the seasonal and within-season variability of \\delta15N and \\delta18O of precipitation nitrate. Back-trajectory analyses are used to examine the geographic source of air masses for individual events, and seasonal frontal patterns are discussed.

Floods of April-June 1957 in Oklahoma and western Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiss, D.L.; Sullivan, C.W.

1957-01-01

Floods of unusual magnitude in volume for the three-month period in Oklahoma and western Arkansas resulted from several heavy rains. In one storm period 20 inches of precipitation fell within 24 hours, on May 15, 16, near Hennessey, Okla., according to information obtained by a 'bucket survey.' Total precipitation for the three-month period at many points of observation equaled the normal yearly totals. Ten lives are known to have been lost. Hundreds of families were evacuated from lowlands where homes were inundated for many days. The Arkansas River at Van Buren, Ark., was above flood stage for 74 days. This report contains tabulation of peak stages and discharges for 96 gaging stations, 9 sites other than gaging stations, maximum contents of 11 reservoirs, isohyetal maps showing total precipitation by months and for the three-month period, and other data related to the floods. (available as photostat copy only)

[Dynamics of total organic carbon (TOC) in hydrological processes in coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest of Dinghushan].

PubMed

Yin, Guangcai; Zhou, Guoyi; Zhang, Deqiang; Wang, Xu; Chu, Guowei; Liu, Yan

2005-09-01

The total flux and concentration of total organic carbon (TOC) in hydrological processes in coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest of Dinghushan were measured from July 2002 to July 2003. The results showed that the TOC input by precipitation was 41.80 kg x hm(-2) x yr(-1), while its output by surface runoff and groundwater (soil solution at 50 cm depth) was 17.54 and 1.80 kg x hm(-2) x yr(-1), respectively. The difference between input and output was 22.46 kg x hm(-2) x yr(-1), indicating that the ecosystem TOC was in positive balance. The monthly variation of TOC flux in hydrological processes was very similar to that in precipitation. The mean TOC concentration in precipitation was 3.64 mg x L(-1), while that in throughfall and stemflow increased 6.10 and 7.39 times after rain passed through the tree canopies and barks. The mean TOC concentration in surface runoff and in soil solution at 25 and 50 cm depths was 12.72, 7.905 and 3.06 mg x L(-1), respectively. The monthly TOC concentration in throughfall and stemflow had a similar changing tendency, showing an increase at the beginning of growth season (March), a decrease after September, and a little increase in December. The TOC concentration in runoff was much higher during high precipitation months. No obvious monthly variation was observed in soil solution TOC concentration (25 and 50 cm below the surface). Stemflow TOC concentration differed greatly between different tree species. The TOC concentration in precipitation, throughfall, and soil solution (25 and 50 cm depths) decreased with increasing precipitation, and no significant relationship existed between the TOC concentrations in stemflow, surface runoff and precipitation. The TOC concentrations in the hydrological processes fluctuated with precipitation intensity, except for that in stemflow and soil solutions.

Multi-site precipitation downscaling using a stochastic weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Chen, Hua; Guo, Shenglian

2018-03-01

Statistical downscaling is an efficient way to solve the spatiotemporal mismatch between climate model outputs and the data requirements of hydrological models. However, the most commonly-used downscaling method only produces climate change scenarios for a specific site or watershed average, which is unable to drive distributed hydrological models to study the spatial variability of climate change impacts. By coupling a single-site downscaling method and a multi-site weather generator, this study proposes a multi-site downscaling approach for hydrological climate change impact studies. Multi-site downscaling is done in two stages. The first stage involves spatially downscaling climate model-simulated monthly precipitation from grid scale to a specific site using a quantile mapping method, and the second stage involves the temporal disaggregating of monthly precipitation to daily values by adjusting the parameters of a multi-site weather generator. The inter-station correlation is specifically considered using a distribution-free approach along with an iterative algorithm. The performance of the downscaling approach is illustrated using a 10-station watershed as an example. The precipitation time series derived from the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset is used as the climate model simulation. The precipitation time series of each station is divided into 30 odd years for calibration and 29 even years for validation. Several metrics, including the frequencies of wet and dry spells and statistics of the daily, monthly and annual precipitation are used as criteria to evaluate the multi-site downscaling approach. The results show that the frequencies of wet and dry spells are well reproduced for all stations. In addition, the multi-site downscaling approach performs well with respect to reproducing precipitation statistics, especially at monthly and annual timescales. The remaining biases mainly result from the non-stationarity of NCEP precipitation. Overall, the proposed approach is efficient for generating multi-site climate change scenarios that can be used to investigate the spatial variability of climate change impacts on hydrology.

Assessment of Developing Intensity Duration Frequency Curves using Satellite Observations (Case Study)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ombadi, Mohammed; Nguyen, Phu; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2017-12-01

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves are essential for the resilient design of infrastructures. Since their earlier development, IDF relationships have been derived using precipitation records from rainfall gauge stations. However, with the recent advancement in satellite observation of precipitation which provides near global coverage and high spatiotemporal resolution, it is worthy of attention to investigate the validity of utilizing the relatively short record length of satellite rainfall to generate robust IDF relationships. These satellite-based IDF can address the paucity of such information in the developing countries. Few studies have used satellite precipitation data in IDF development but mainly focused on merging satellite and gauge precipitation. In this study, however, IDF have been derived solely from satellite observations using PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record). The unique PERSIANN-CDR attributes of high spatial resolution (0.25°×0.25°), daily temporal resolution and a record dating back to 1983 allow for the investigation at fine resolution. The results are compared over most of the contiguous United States against NOAA Atlas 14. The impact of using different methods of sampling, distribution estimators and regionalization in the resulting relationships is investigated. Main challenges to estimate robust and accurate IDF from satellite observations are also highlighted.

Temperature-precipitation relationship of the Common Era in northern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luoto, Tomi P.; Nevalainen, Liisa

2018-05-01

Due to the lack of knowledge on dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to the last millennium, synchronized records of air temperature and precipitation variability are needed to understand large-scale drivers of the hydroclimate. Here, we use completely synchronized paleolimnological proxy-based records of air temperature and effective precipitation from two Scandinavian lakes with ˜2000-year sediment profiles. We show that the relationship between air temperature and precipitation (T/P ratio) is synchronous in both study sites throughout the records suggesting warm and dry conditions at ˜300-1100 CE and cold and wet conditions at ˜1200-1900 CE. Owing to the significantly increased air temperatures, the most recent T/P ratio has again turned positive. During the first millennium of the Common Era, the T/P mimics patterns in Southern Oscillation index, whereas the second millennium shows response to the NAO index but is also concurrent with solar irradiance shifts. Since our T/P reconstruction is mostly linked with the NAO, we propose the T/P ratio as an indicator of the NAO. Our results from the coherent records provide first-time knowledge on the long-term temperature-precipitation relationship in Northern Europe that increase understanding of the comprehensive hydroclimate system in the region and the NAO dynamics also further back in time.

Millennial-scale records of North American Monsoon in time and space during the last glacial period: reconstructions from arid northern Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, P.; Quiroz-Jiménez, D.; Charles-Polo, M.; Lozano-Santacruz, R.

2013-05-01

The arid northern Mexico is part of the Sonora and Chihuahua Deserts and both the deserts belong to the North American Desert system. The North American Monsoon (NAM) or Mexican Monsoon refers to the system that brings summer precipitation to arid northern Mexico and southwestern USA. It contributes ca. 70-80% of total annual precipitation along the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental (northern Mexico) and ca. 40-50% of total precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico (southwest USA). High-resolution geochemical data from lacustrine deposits located between 23°N and 31°N (paleolakes La Salada, Babicora and San Felipe) provide spatio-temporal and millennial-scale paleohydrological records related to the dynamics of summer precipitation as well as westerly winter storms over the last glacial period. The inverse relationship between proxy records of runoff into lacustrine basins of northern Mexico and winter precipitation over the southwestern USA indicate that the westerly winter storms had minimal influence south of 30°N and the paleohydrological changes are mainly summer precipitation controlled. The variation in summer season precipitation between 20 and 60 cal. kyr BP was driven by long term changes in summer insolation. During an interval of lower summer insolation (i.e. >60 cal. kyr BP), the higher summer precipitation could be related to the NAM expansion as a result of reduced north hemisphere ice sheets. On a millennial-scale, the region received more than average precipitation during the warm interstadials and vice versa.

Development of a global historic monthly mean precipitation dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Su; Xu, Wenhui; Xu, Yan; Li, Qingxiang

2016-04-01

Global historic precipitation dataset is the base for climate and water cycle research. There have been several global historic land surface precipitation datasets developed by international data centers such as the US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), European Climate Assessment & Dataset project team, Met Office, etc., but so far there are no such datasets developed by any research institute in China. In addition, each dataset has its own focus of study region, and the existing global precipitation datasets only contain sparse observational stations over China, which may result in uncertainties in East Asian precipitation studies. In order to take into account comprehensive historic information, users might need to employ two or more datasets. However, the non-uniform data formats, data units, station IDs, and so on add extra difficulties for users to exploit these datasets. For this reason, a complete historic precipitation dataset that takes advantages of various datasets has been developed and produced in the National Meteorological Information Center of China. Precipitation observations from 12 sources are aggregated, and the data formats, data units, and station IDs are unified. Duplicated stations with the same ID are identified, with duplicated observations removed. Consistency test, correlation coefficient test, significance t-test at the 95% confidence level, and significance F-test at the 95% confidence level are conducted first to ensure the data reliability. Only those datasets that satisfy all the above four criteria are integrated to produce the China Meteorological Administration global precipitation (CGP) historic precipitation dataset version 1.0. It contains observations at 31 thousand stations with 1.87 × 107 data records, among which 4152 time series of precipitation are longer than 100 yr. This dataset plays a critical role in climate research due to its advantages in large data volume and high density of station network, compared to other datasets. Using the Penalized Maximal t-test method, significant inhomogeneity has been detected in historic precipitation datasets at 340 stations. The ratio method is then employed to effectively remove these remarkable change points. Global precipitation analysis based on CGP v1.0 shows that rainfall has been increasing during 1901-2013 with an increasing rate of 3.52 ± 0.5 mm (10 yr)-1, slightly higher than that in the NCDC data. Analysis also reveals distinguished long-term changing trends at different latitude zones.

Application of hierarchical clustering method to classify of space-time rainfall patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chang, Tu-Je

2010-05-01

Understanding the local precipitation patterns is essential to the water resources management and flooding mitigation. The precipitation patterns can vary in space and time depending upon the factors from different spatial scales such as local topological changes and macroscopic atmospheric circulation. The spatiotemporal variation of precipitation in Taiwan is significant due to its complex terrain and its location at west pacific and subtropical area, where is the boundary between the pacific ocean and Asia continent with the complex interactions among the climatic processes. This study characterizes local-scale precipitation patterns by classifying the historical space-time precipitation records. We applied the hierarchical ascending clustering method to analyze the precipitation records from 1960 to 2008 at the six rainfall stations located in Lan-yang catchment at the northeast of the island. Our results identify the four primary space-time precipitation types which may result from distinct driving forces from the changes of atmospheric variables and topology at different space-time scales. This study also presents an important application of the statistical downscaling to combine large-scale upper-air circulation with local space-time precipitation patterns.

The Relationship Between the Zonal Mean ITCZ and Regional Precipitation during the mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niezgoda, K.; Noone, D.; Konecky, B.

2017-12-01

Characteristics of the zonal mean Tropical Rain Belt (TRB, i.e. the ITCZ + the land-based monsoons) are often inferred from individual proxy records of precipitation or other hydroclimatic variables. However, these inferences can be misleading. Here, an isotope-enabled climate model simulation is used to evaluate metrics of the zonal mean ITCZ vs. regional hydrological characteristics during the mid-Holocene (MH, 6 kya). The MH provides a unique perspective on the relationship between the ITCZ and regional hydrology because of large, orbitally-driven shifts in tropical precipitation as well as a critical mass of proxy records. By using a climate model with simulated water isotopes, characteristics of atmospheric circulation and water transport processes can be inferred, and comparison with isotope proxies can be made more directly. We find that estimations of the zonal-mean ITCZ are insufficient for evaluating regional responses of hydrological cycles to forcing changes. For example, one approximation of a 1.5-degree northward shift in the zonal-mean ITCZ position during the MH corresponded well with northward shifts in maximum rainfall in tropical Africa, but did not match southward shifts in the tropical Pacific or longitudinal shifts in the Indian monsoon region. In many regions, the spatial distribution of water vapor isotopes suggests that changes in moisture source and atmospheric circulation were a greater influence on precipitation distribution, intensity, and isotope ratio than the average northward shift in ITCZ latitude. These findings reinforce the idea that using tropical hydrological proxy records to infer zonal-mean characteristics of the ITCZ may be misleading. Rather, tropical proxy records of precipitation, particularly those that record precipitation isotopes, serve as a guideline for regional hydrological changes while model simulations can put them in the context of zonal mean tropical convergence.

A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.

A comparison of monthly precipitation point estimates at 6 locations in Iran using integration of soft computing methods and GARCH time series model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehdizadeh, Saeid; Behmanesh, Javad; Khalili, Keivan

2017-11-01

Precipitation plays an important role in determining the climate of a region. Precise estimation of precipitation is required to manage and plan water resources, as well as other related applications such as hydrology, climatology, meteorology and agriculture. Time series of hydrologic variables such as precipitation are composed of deterministic and stochastic parts. Despite this fact, the stochastic part of the precipitation data is not usually considered in modeling of precipitation process. As an innovation, the present study introduces three new hybrid models by integrating soft computing methods including multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Bayesian networks (BN) and gene expression programming (GEP) with a time series model, namely generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) for modeling of the monthly precipitation. For this purpose, the deterministic (obtained by soft computing methods) and stochastic (obtained by GARCH time series model) parts are combined with each other. To carry out this research, monthly precipitation data of Babolsar, Bandar Anzali, Gorgan, Ramsar, Tehran and Urmia stations with different climates in Iran were used during the period of 1965-2014. Root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and determination coefficient (R2) were employed to evaluate the performance of conventional/single MARS, BN and GEP, as well as the proposed MARS-GARCH, BN-GARCH and GEP-GARCH hybrid models. It was found that the proposed novel models are more precise than single MARS, BN and GEP models. Overall, MARS-GARCH and BN-GARCH models yielded better accuracy than GEP-GARCH. The results of the present study confirmed the suitability of proposed methodology for precise modeling of precipitation.

Acute Precipitants of Physical Elder Abuse: Qualitative Analysis of Legal Records From Highly Adjudicated Cases.

PubMed

Rosen, Tony; Bloemen, Elizabeth M; LoFaso, Veronica M; Clark, Sunday; Flomenbaum, Neal E; Breckman, Risa; Markarian, Arlene; Riffin, Catherine; Lachs, Mark S; Pillemer, Karl

2016-08-01

Elder abuse is a common phenomenon with potentially devastating consequences for older adults. Although researchers have begun to identify predisposing risk factors for elder abuse victims and abusers, little is known about the acute precipitants that lead to escalation to physical violence. We analyzed legal records from highly adjudicated cases to describe these acute precipitants for physical elder abuse. In collaboration with a large, urban district attorney's office, we qualitatively evaluated legal records from 87 successfully prosecuted physical elder abuse cases from 2003 to 2015. We transcribed and analyzed narratives of the events surrounding physical abuse within victim statements, police reports, and prosecutor records. We identified major themes using content analysis. We identified 10 categories of acute precipitants that commonly triggered physical elder abuse, including victim attempting to prevent the abuser from entering or demanding that he or she leave, victim threatening or attempting to leave/escape, threat or perception that the victim would involve the authorities, conflict about a romantic relationship, presence during/intervention in ongoing family violence, issues in multi-generational child rearing, conflict about the abuser's substance abuse, confrontation about financial exploitation, dispute over theft/destruction of property, and disputes over minor household issues. Common acute precipitants of physical elder abuse may be identified. Improved understanding of these acute precipitants for escalation to physical violence and their contribution to elder abuse may assist in the development of prevention and management strategies.

Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene variability and the role of insolation, ENSO, and the North American Monsoon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Lesleigh

2012-01-01

Over the period of instrumental records, precipitation maximum in the headwaters of the Colorado Rocky Mountains has been dominated by winter snow, with a substantial degree of interannual variability linked to Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. High-elevation snowpack is an important water storage that is carefully observed in order to meet increasing water demands in the greater semi-arid region. The purpose here is to consider Rocky Mountain water trends during the Holocene when known changes in earth's energy balance were caused by precession-driven insolation variability. Changes in solar insolation are thought to have influenced the variability and intensity of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North American Monsoon and the seasonal precipitation balance between rain and snow at upper elevations. Holocene records are presented from two high elevation lakes located in northwest Colorado that document decade-to-century scale precipitation seasonality for the past ~ 7000 years. Comparisons with sub-tropical records of ENSO indicate that the snowfall-dominated precipitation maxima developed ~ 3000 and 4000 years ago, coincident with evidence for enhanced ENSO/PDO dynamics. During the early-to-mid Holocene the records suggest a more monsoon affected precipitation regime with reduced snowpack, more rainfall, and net moisture deficits that were more severe than recent droughts. The Holocene perspective of precipitation indicates a far broader range of variability than that of the past century and highlights the non-linear character of hydroclimate in the U.S. west.

Acute Precipitants of Physical Elder Abuse: Qualitative Analysis of Legal Records From Highly Adjudicated Cases

PubMed Central

Rosen, Tony; Bloemen, Elizabeth M.; LoFaso, Veronica M.; Clark, Sunday; Flomenbaum, Neal E.; Breckman, Risa; Markarian, Arlene; Riffin, Catherine; Lachs, Mark S.; Pillemer, Karl

2016-01-01

Elder abuse is a common phenomenon with potentially devastating consequences for older adults. Although researchers have begun to identify predisposing risk factors for elder abuse victims and abusers, little is known about the acute precipitants that lead to escalation to physical violence. We analyzed legal records from highly adjudicated cases to describe these acute precipitants for physical elder abuse. In collaboration with a large, urban district attorney’s office, we qualitatively evaluated legal records from 87 successfully prosecuted physical elder abuse cases from 2003 to 2015. We transcribed and analyzed narratives of the events surrounding physical abuse within victim statements, police reports, and prosecutor records. We identified major themes using content analysis. We identified 10 categories of acute precipitants that commonly triggered physical elder abuse, including victim attempting to prevent the abuser from entering or demanding that he or she leave, victim threatening or attempting to leave/escape, threat or perception that the victim would involve the authorities, conflict about a romantic relationship, presence during/intervention in ongoing family violence, issues in multi-generational child rearing, conflict about the abuser’s substance abuse, confrontation about financial exploitation, dispute over theft/destruction of property, and disputes over minor household issues. Common acute precipitants of physical elder abuse may be identified. Improved understanding of these acute precipitants for escalation to physical violence and their contribution to elder abuse may assist in the development of prevention and management strategies. PMID:27506228

Interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate: roles of precipitation and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Zeng, Ning; Wang, Meirong

2016-04-01

The interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) is closely connected with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, sensitivities of CGR to temperature and precipitation remain largely uncertain. This paper analyzed the relationship between Mauna Loa CGR and tropical land climatic elements. We find that Mauna Loa CGR lags precipitation by 4 months with a correlation coefficient of -0.63, leads temperature by 1 month (0.77), and correlates with soil moisture (-0.65) with zero lag. Additionally, precipitation and temperature are highly correlated (-0.66), with precipitation leading by 4-5 months. Regression analysis shows that sensitivities of Mauna Loa CGR to temperature and precipitation are 2.92 ± 0.20 PgC yr-1 K-1 and -0.46 ± 0.07 PgC yr-1 100 mm-1, respectively. Unlike some recent suggestions, these empirical relationships favor neither temperature nor precipitation as the dominant factor of CGR IAV. We further analyzed seven terrestrial carbon cycle models, from the TRENDY project, to study the processes underlying CGR IAV. All models capture well the IAV of tropical land-atmosphere carbon flux (CFTA). Sensitivities of the ensemble mean CFTA to temperature and precipitation are 3.18 ± 0.11 PgC yr-1 K-1 and -0.67 ± 0.04 PgC yr-1 100 mm-1, close to Mauna Loa CGR. Importantly, the models consistently show the variability in net primary productivity (NPP) dominates CGR, rather than heterotrophic respiration. Because previous studies have proved that NPP is largely driven by precipitation in tropics, it suggests a key role of precipitation in CGR IAV despite the higher CGR correlation with temperature. Understanding the relative contribution of CO2 sensitivity to precipitation and temperature has important implications for future carbon-climate feedback using such ''emergent constraint''.

A precipitation database of station-based daily and monthly measurements for West Africa: Overview, quality control and harmonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliefernicht, Jan; Waongo, Moussa; Annor, Thompson; Laux, Patrick; Lorenz, Manuel; Salack, Seyni; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

West Africa is a data sparse region. High quality and long-term precipitation data are often not readily available for applications in hydrology, agriculture, meteorology and other needs. To close this gap, we use multiple data sources to develop a precipitation database with long-term daily and monthly time series. This database was compiled from 16 archives including global databases e.g. from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), databases from research projects (e.g. the AMMA database) and databases of the national meteorological services of some West African countries. The collection consists of more than 2000 precipitation gauges with measurements dating from 1850 to 2015. Due to erroneous measurements (e.g. temporal offsets, unit conversion errors), missing values and inconsistent meta-data, the merging of this precipitation dataset is not straightforward and requires a thorough quality control and harmonization. To this end, we developed geostatistical-based algorithms for quality control of individual databases and harmonization to a joint database. The algorithms are based on a pairwise comparison of the correspondence of precipitation time series in dependence to the distance between stations. They were tested for precipitation time series from gages located in a rectangular domain covering Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin and Togo. This harmonized and quality controlled precipitation database was recently used for several applications such as the validation of a high resolution regional climate model and the bias correction of precipitation projections provided the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). In this presentation, we will give an overview of the novel daily and monthly precipitation database and the algorithms used for quality control and harmonization. We will also highlight the quality of global and regional archives (e.g. GHCN, GSOD, AMMA database) in comparison to the precipitation databases provided by the national meteorological services.

Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Lesleigh; Max Berkelhammer,; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

2016-01-01

Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean–atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north–south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean–atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north–south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean–atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive regional precipitation-δ18O responses to Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability, which in turn, will lead to a better understanding of internal Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability and its response to external climate forcing mechanisms.

Comparison of two statistical methods for probability prediction of monthly precipitation during summer over Huaihe River Basin in China, and applications in runoff prediction based on hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Du, L.; Liao, Y.

2017-12-01

Based on the ensemble hindcast dataset of CSM1.1m by NCC, CMA, Bayesian merging models and a two-step statistical model are developed and employed to predict monthly grid/station precipitation in the Huaihe River China during summer at the lead-time of 1 to 3 months. The hindcast datasets span a period of 1991 to 2014. The skill of the two models is evaluated using area under the ROC curve (AUC) in a leave-one-out cross-validation framework, and is compared to the skill of CSM1.1m. CSM1.1m has highest skill for summer precipitation from April while lowest from May, and has highest skill for precipitation in June but lowest for precipitation in July. Compared with raw outputs of climate models, some schemes of the two approaches have higher skill for the prediction from March and May, but almost schemes have lower skill for prediction from April. Compared to two-step approach, one sampling scheme of Bayesian merging approach has higher skill for the prediction from March, but has lower skill from May. The results suggest that there is potential to apply the two statistical models for monthly precipitation forecast in summer from March and from May over Huaihe River basin, but is potential to apply CSM1.1m forecast from April. Finally, the summer runoff during 1991 to 2014 is simulated based on one hydrological model using the climate hindcast of CSM1.1m and the two statistical models.

Flowering phenological changes in relation to climate change in Hungary.

PubMed

Szabó, Barbara; Vincze, Enikő; Czúcz, Bálint

2016-09-01

The importance of long-term plant phenological time series is growing in monitoring of climate change impacts worldwide. To detect trends and assess possible influences of climate in Hungary, we studied flowering phenological records for six species (Convallaria majalis, Taraxacum officinale, Syringa vulgaris, Sambucus nigra, Robinia pseudoacacia, Tilia cordata) based on phenological observations from the Hungarian Meteorological Service recorded between 1952 and 2000. Altogether, four from the six examined plant species showed significant advancement in flowering onset with an average rate of 1.9-4.4 days per decade. We found that it was the mean temperature of the 2-3 months immediately preceding the mean flowering date, which most prominently influenced its timing. In addition, several species were affected by the late winter (January-March) values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. We also detected sporadic long-term effects for all species, where climatic variables from earlier months exerted influence with varying sign and little recognizable pattern: the temperature/NAO of the previous autumn (August-December) seems to influence Convallaria, and the temperature/precipitation of the previous spring (February-April) has some effect on Tilia flowering.

[Potential distribution and geographic characteristics of wild populations of Vanilla planifolia (Orchidaceae) Oaxaca, Mexico].

PubMed

Hernandez-Ruiz, Jesús; Herrera-Cabrera, B Edgar; Delgado-Alvarado, Adriana; Salazar-Rojas, Víctor M; Bustamante-Gonzalez, Ángel; Campos-Contreras, Jorge E; Ramírez-Juarez, Javier

2016-03-01

Wild specimens of Vanilla planifolia represent a vital part of this resource primary gene pool, and some plants have only been reported in Oaxaca, Mexico. For this reason, we studied its geographical distribution within the state, to locate and describe the ecological characteristics of the areas where they have been found, in order to identify potential areas of establishment. The method comprised four stages: 1) the creation of a database with herbarium records, 2) the construction of the potential distribution based on historical herbarium records for the species, using the model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and 22 bioclimatic variables as predictors; 3) an in situ systematic search of individuals, based on herbarium records and areas of potential distribution in 24 municipalities, to determine the habitat current situation and distribution; 4) the description of the environmental factors of potential ecological niches generated by MaxEnt. A review of herbarium collections revealed a total of 18 records of V. planifolia between 1939 and 1998. The systematic search located 28 plants distributed in 12 sites in 95 364 Km(2). The most important variables that determined the model of vanilla potential distribution were: precipitation in the rainy season (61.9 %), soil moisture regime (23.4 %) and precipitation during the four months of highest rainfall (8.1 %). The species potential habitat was found to be distributed in four zones: wet tropics of the Gulf of Mexico, humid temperate, humid tropical, and humid temperate in the Pacific. Precipitation oscillated within the annual ranges of 2 500 to 4 000 mm, with summer rains, and winter precipitation as 5 to 10 % of the total. The moisture regime and predominating climate were udic type I (330 to 365 days of moisture) and hot humid (Am/A(C) m). The plants were located at altitudes of 200 to 1 190 masl, on rough hillsides that generally make up the foothills of mountain systems, with altitudes of 1 300 to 2 500 masl. In natural conditions, distribution of the species is not limited to high evergreen forests, since it was also found in mountain mesophyll and tropical evergreen forests. The location of new specimens of V. planifolia in its wild condition reduces the potential distribution area by 66 %. This area is fragmented into three geographically separated areas. Habitat reduction was due to the increased number of located plants that define the environmental conditions into a more accurate level. Conservation actions can thus be designed and implemented, focusing on more specific areas within the state of Oaxaca, Mexico.

An independent assessment of the monthly PRISM gridded precipitation product in central Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The development of climate-informed decision support tools for agricultural management requires long-duration location-specific climatologies due to the extreme spatiotemporal variability of precipitation. The traditional source of precipitation data (rain gauges) are too sparsely located to fill t...

Statistical analysis of long-term hydrologic records for selection of drought-monitoring sites on Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busciolano, Ronald J.

2005-01-01

Ground water is the sole source of water supply for more than 3 million people on Long Island, New York. Large-scale ground-water pumpage, sewering systems, and prolonged periods of below-normal precipitation have lowered ground-water levels and decreased stream-discharge in western and central Long Island. No method is currently (2004) available on Long Island that can assess data from the ground-water-monitoring network to enable water managers and suppliers with the ability to give timely warning of severe water-level declines.This report (1) quantifies past drought- and human-induced changes in the ground-water system underlying Long Island by applying statistical and graphical methods to precipitation, stream-discharge, and ground-water-level data from selected monitoring sites; (2) evaluates the relation between water levels in the upper glacial aquifer and those in the underlying Magothy aquifer; (3) defines trends in stream discharge and ground-water levels that might indicate the onset of drought conditions or the effects of excessive pumping; and (4) discusses the long-term records that were used to select sites for a Long Island drought-monitoring network.Long Island’s long-term hydrologic records indicated that the available data provide a basis for development of a drought-monitoring network. The data from 36 stations that were selected as possible drought-monitoring sites—8 precipitation-monitoring stations, 8 streamflow-gaging (discharge) stations, 15 monitoring wells screened in the upper glacial aquifer under water-table (unconfined) conditions, and 5 monitoring wells screened in the underlying Magothy aquifer under semi-confined conditions—indicate that water levels in western parts of Long Island have fallen and risen markedly (more than 15 ft) in response to fluctuations in pumpage, and have declined from the increased use of sanitary- and storm-sewer systems. Water levels in the central and eastern parts, in contrast, remain relatively unaffected compared to the western parts, although the effects of human activity are discernible in the records.The value of each site as a drought-monitoring indicator was assessed through an analysis of trends in the records. Fifty-year annual and monthly data sets were created and combined into three composite-average hydrographs—precipitation, stream discharge, and ground-water levels. Three zones representing the range of human effect on ground-water levels were delineated to help evaluate islandwide hydrologic conditions and to quantify the indices. Data from the three indices can be used to assess current conditions in the ground-water system underlying Long Island and evaluate water-level declines during periods of drought.

[Relationships of forest fire with lightning in Daxing' anling Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Lei, Xiao-Li; Zhou, Guang-Sheng; Jia, Bing-Rui; Li, Shuai

2012-07-01

Forest fire is an important factor affecting forest ecosystem succession. Recently, forest fire, especially forest lightning fire, shows an increasing trend under global warming. To study the relationships of forest fire with lightning is essential to accurately predict the forest fire in time. Daxing' anling Mountains is a region with high frequency of forest lightning fire in China, and an important experiment site to study the relationships of forest fire with lightning. Based on the forest fire records and the corresponding lightning and meteorological observation data in the Mountains from 1966 to 2007, this paper analyzed the relationships of forest fire with lightning in this region. In the period of 1966-2007, both the lightning fire number and the fired forest area in this region increased significantly. The meteorological factors affecting the forest lighting fire were related to temporal scales. At yearly scale, the forest lightning fire was significantly correlated with precipitation, with a correlation coefficient of -0.489; at monthly scale, it had a significant correlation with air temperature, the correlation coefficient being 0.18. The relationship of the forest lightning fire with lightning was also related to temporal scales. At yearly scale, there was no significant correlation between them; at monthly scale, the forest lightning fire was strongly correlated with lightning and affected by precipitation; at daily scale, a positive correlation was observed between forest lightning fire and lightning when the precipitation was less than 5 mm. According to these findings, a fire danger index based on ADTD lightning detection data was established, and a forest lightning fire forecast model was developed. The prediction accuracy of this model for the forest lightning fire in Daxing' anling Mountains in 2005-2007 was > 80%.

UC Irvine CHRS RainSphere - a new user friendly tool for analyzing global remotely sensed rainfall estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, P.; Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K. L.; Gao, X.; AghaKouchak, A.; Braithwaite, D.; Thorstensen, A. R.; Ashouri, H.; Tran, H.; Huynh, P.; Palacios, T.

2016-12-01

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), University of California, Irvine has recently developed the CHRS RainSphere (hosted at http://rainsphere.eng.uci.edu) for scientific studies and applications using the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks - Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR, Ashouri et al. 2015). PERSIANN-CDR is a long-term (33+ years) high-resolution (daily, 0.25 degree) global satellite precipitation dataset which is useful for climatological studies and water resources applications. CHRS RainSphere has functionalities allowing users to visualize and query spatiotemporal statistics of global daily satellite precipitation for the past three decades. With a couple of mouse-clicks, users can easily obtain a report of time series, spatial plots, and basic trend analysis of rainfall for various spatial domains of interest such as location, watershed, basin, political division and country for yearly, monthly, monthly by year or daily. Mann-Kendall test is implemented on CHRS RainSphere for statistically investigating whether there is a significant increasing/decreasing rainfall trend at a location or over a specific spatial domain. CHRS RainSphere has a range of capabilities and should appeal to a broad spectrum of users including climate scientists, water resources managers and planners, and engineers. CHRS RainSphere can also be a useful educational tool for the general public to investigate climate change and variability. The video tutorial on CHRS RainSphere is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eI2-f88iGlY&feature=youtu.be. A demonstration of CHRS RainSphere will be included in the presentation.

Characterization of precipitation features over CONUS derived from satellite, radar, and rain gauge datasets (2002-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.

2013-12-01

We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, surface observations, and models to derive precipitation characteristics over CONUS for the period 2002-2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor datasets of TMPA 3B42, CMORPH, and PERSIANN. The satellite based QPEs are compared over the concurrent period with the NCEP Stage IV product, which is a near real time product providing precipitation data at the hourly temporal scale gridded at a nominal 4-km spatial resolution. In addition, remotely sensed precipitation datasets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Daily) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model), which provides gridded precipitation estimates that are used as a baseline for multi-sensor QPE products comparison. The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, monthly, and daily scales with focus on selected river basins (Southeastern US, Pacific Northwest, Great Plains). While, unconditional annual rain rates present a satisfying agreement between all products, results suggest that satellite QPE datasets exhibit important biases in particular at higher rain rates (≥4 mm/day). Conversely, on seasonal scales differences between remotely sensed data and ground surface observations can be greater than 50% and up to 90% for low daily accumulation (≤1 mm/day) such as in the Western US (summer) and Central US (winter). The conditional analysis performed using different daily rainfall accumulation thresholds (from low rainfall intensity to intense precipitation) shows that while intense events measured at the ground are infrequent (around 2% for daily accumulation above 2 inches/day), remotely sensed products displayed differences from 20-50% and up to 90-100%. A discussion on the impact of differing spatial and temporal resolutions with respect to the datasets ability to capture extreme precipitation events is also provided. Furthermore, this work is part of a broader effort to evaluate long-term multi-sensor QPEs in the perspective of developing Climate Data Records (CDRs) for precipitation.

Trend analysis and forecast of precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and rainfall deficit in the Blackland Prairie of eastern Mississippi

Treesearch

Gary Feng; Stacy Cobb; Zaid Abdo; Daniel K. Fisher; Ying Ouyang; Ardeshir Adeli; Johnie N. Jenkins

2016-01-01

Trend analysis and estimation of monthly and annual precipitation, reference evapotranspiration ET, and rainfall deficit are essential for water-resources management and cropping-system design. Rainfall, ET, and water-deficit patterns and trends at Macon in eastern Mississippi for a 120-yr period (1894-2014) were analyzed for annual, seasonal, and monthly...

Extreme precipitation event over North China in August 2010: observations, monthly forecasting, and link to intra-seasonal variability of the Silk-Road wave-train across Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsolini, Yvan; Zhang, Ling; Peters, Dieter; Fraedrich, Klaus

2014-05-01

Forecast of regional precipitation events at the sub-seasonal timescale remains a big challenge for operational global prediction systems. Over the Far East in summer, climate and precipitation are strongly influenced by the fluctuating western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and strong precipitation is often associated with southeasterly low-level wind that brings moist-laden air from the southern China seas. The WPSH variability is partly influenced by quasi-stationary wave-trains propagating eastwards from Europe across Asia along the two westerly jets: the Silk-Road wave-train along the Asian jet at mid-latitudes and, on a more northern route, the polar wave-train along the sub-polar jet. While the Silk-Road wave-train appears as a robust, internal mode of variability in seasonal predictions models, its predictability is very low on the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale. A case in point is the unusual summer of 2010, when China experienced its worst seasonal flooding for a decade, triggered by unusually prolonged and severe monsoonal rains. In addition that summer was also characterized by record-breaking heat wave over Eastern Europe and Russia as well as catastrophic monsoonal floods in Pakistan 2010. The impact of the latter circulation anomalies on the precipitation further east over China, has been little explored. Here, we examine the role and the actual predictability of the Silk-Road wave-train, and its impact on precipitation over Northeastern China throughout August 2010, using the high-resolution IFS forecast model of ECMWF, realistic initialized and run in an ensemble mode. We demonstrate that the forecast failure with regard to flooding and extreme precipitation over Northeastern China in August 2010 is linked to the failure to represent intra-seasonal variations of the Silk-Road wave-train and the associated intensification of the WPSH.

Annual dynamics of halite precipitation in the Dead Sea: In situ observations and their geological implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirota, Ido; enzel, Yehouda; Lensky, Nadav G.

2017-04-01

Layered halite sequences deposited in deep basins throughout the geological record. However, analogues of such sequences are commonly studied in sallow environments. Here we study active precipitation of halite layers from the only modern analog for deep, halite-precipitating basin, the hypersaline Dead Sea. In situ observations in the Dead Sea link seasonal thermohaline stratification, halite saturation, and the characteristics of the actively forming halite layers. The spatiotemporal evolution of halite precipitation in the Dead Sea was characterized by means of monthly observations of the i) lake thermohaline stratification (temperature, salinity, and density), ii) degree of halite saturation, and iii) textural evolution of the active halite deposits. We present the observed relationships between textural characteristics of layered halite deposits (i.e. grain size, consolidation, and roughness) and the degree of saturation, which in turn reflected the limnology and hydro-climatology. The lakefloor is divided into two principle environments: A deep, hypolimnetic and a shallow, epilimnetic lakefloor. In the deeper hypolimnetic lakefloor halite continuously precipitates with seasonal variations: (a) during summer, consolidated coarse halite crystals form rough surfaces under slight super-saturation. (b) During winter, unconsolidated, fine halite crystals form smooth seafloor deposits under high supersaturation. The observations also emphasize the thought regarding seasonal alternation of halite crystallization mechanism. The shallow epilimnetic lake floor is highly influenced by the seasonal temperature variations, and by intensive summer dissolution of part of the previous year's halite deposit which results in thin sequences with annual unconformities. This emphasizes the control of temperature seasonality on the precipitated halite layers characteristics. In addition, precipitation of halite in the hypolimnetic floor, on the expense of the dissolution of the epilimnetic floor, results in lateral focusing and thickening of halite deposit in the deeper part of the basin and thinning of the deposits in shallow marginal basins.

Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2012-01-01

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides; however, there remain large uncertainties in characterizing the distribution of these hazards and meteorological triggers at the global scale. Researchers have evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local and regional scale primarily using in situ data, yet few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This research uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurence of precipitation and rainfall-triggered landslides globally. The GLC, available from 2007 to the present, contains information on reported rainfall-triggered landslide events around the world using online media reports, disaster databases, etc. When evaluating this database, we observed that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This research also considers the sources for this extreme rainfall, citing teleconnections from ENSO as likely contributors to regional precipitation variability. This work demonstrates the potential for using satellite-based precipitation estimates to identify potentially active landslide areas at the global scale in order to improve landslide cataloging and quantify landslide triggering at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

The effect of precipitation collector design on the measured acid content of precipitation

Treesearch

H. A. Weibe

1976-01-01

In order to evaluate the effect of different types of collectors on the measured chemical constituents of monthly precipitation collections, an array of fourteen precipitation samplers of five different designs has been in operation at Woodbridge, Ontario since March 1974. The collectors are located in an open field near the city of Toronto in an area of approximately...

Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

2018-01-01

The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

Constraining precipitation amount and distribution over cold regions using GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrangi, A.; Reager, J. T., II; Gardner, A. S.; Fisher, J.

2017-12-01

Current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in high-elevation and high latitude regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here we demonstrate how that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger error. We also observed that as near surface temperature decreases products tend to underestimate accumulated precipitation retrieved from GRACE. The analysis performed using various products such as GPCP, GPCC, TRMM, and gridded station data over vast regions in high latitudes and two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia. Based on the analysis over High Mountain Asia it was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, GPCP showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basin.

Low-flow characteristics of Indiana streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fowler, K.K.; Wilson, J.T.

1996-01-01

Knowledge of low-flow characteristics of streams is essential for management of water resources. Low-flow characteristics are presented for 229 continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations and 285 partial-record stations in Indiana. Low- flow-frequency characteristics were computed for 210 continuous-record stations that had at least 10 years of record, and flow-duration curves were computed for all continuous-record stations. Low-flow-frequency and flow-duration analyses are based on available streamflow records through September 1993. Selected low-flow-frequency curves were computed for annual low flows and seasonal low flows. The four seasons are represented by the 3-month groups of March-May, June-August, September-November, and December- February. The 7-day, 10-year and the 7-day, 2 year low flows were estimated for 285 partial-record stations, which are ungaged sites where streamflow measurements were made at base flow. The same low-flow characteristics were estimated for 19 continuous-record stations where less than 10 years of record were available. Precipitation and geology directly influence the streams in Indiana. Streams in the northern, glaciated part of the State tend to have higher sustained base flows than those in the nonglaciated southern part. Flow at several of the continuous-record gaging stations is affected by some form of regulation or diversion. Low-flow characteristics for continuous-record stations at which flow is affected by regulation are determined using the period of record affected by regulation; natural flows prior to regulation are not used.

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Jianbo; Kummerow, Christian D.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of the total annual rainfall erosivity is identified within four months only (June-September). The highest erosion risk can be expected in July, where not only rainfall erosivity but also erosivity density is high. In addition to the intra-annual temporal regime, a spatial variability of this seasonality was detectable between different regions of Switzerland. The assessment of the dynamic behavior of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of susceptible seasons and regions.

Fukushima Nuclear Accident Recorded in Tibetan Plateau Snow Pits

PubMed Central

Wang, Ninglian; Wu, Xiaobo; Kehrwald, Natalie; Li, Zhen; Li, Quanlian; Jiang, Xi; Pu, Jianchen

2015-01-01

The β radioactivity of snow-pit samples collected in the spring of 2011 on four Tibetan Plateau glaciers demonstrate a remarkable peak in each snow pit profile, with peaks about ten to tens of times higher than background levels. The timing of these peaks suggests that the high radioactivity resulted from the Fukushima nuclear accident that occurred on March 11, 2011 in eastern Japan. Fallout monitoring studies demonstrate that this radioactive material was transported by the westerlies across the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The depth of the peak β radioactivity in each snow pit compared with observational precipitation records, suggests that the radioactive fallout reached the Tibetan Plateau and was deposited on glacier surfaces in late March 2011, or approximately 20 days after the nuclear accident. The radioactive fallout existed in the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau for about one month. PMID:25658094

Predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation using automatic time series forecasting methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papacharalampous, Georgia; Tyralis, Hristos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2018-02-01

We investigate the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation by applying automatic univariate time series forecasting methods to a sample of 985 40-year-long monthly temperature and 1552 40-year-long monthly precipitation time series. The methods include a naïve one based on the monthly values of the last year, as well as the random walk (with drift), AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA), exponential smoothing state-space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (BATS), simple exponential smoothing, Theta and Prophet methods. Prophet is a recently introduced model inspired by the nature of time series forecasted at Facebook and has not been applied to hydrometeorological time series before, while the use of random walk, BATS, simple exponential smoothing and Theta is rare in hydrology. The methods are tested in performing multi-step ahead forecasts for the last 48 months of the data. We further investigate how different choices of handling the seasonality and non-normality affect the performance of the models. The results indicate that: (a) all the examined methods apart from the naïve and random walk ones are accurate enough to be used in long-term applications; (b) monthly temperature and precipitation can be forecasted to a level of accuracy which can barely be improved using other methods; (c) the externally applied classical seasonal decomposition results mostly in better forecasts compared to the automatic seasonal decomposition used by the BATS and Prophet methods; and (d) Prophet is competitive, especially when it is combined with externally applied classical seasonal decomposition.

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2010-08-01

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.

Excess growing-season water limits lowland black spruce productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dymond, S.; Kolka, R. K.; Bolstad, P. V.; Gill, K.; Curzon, M.; D'Amato, A. W.

2015-12-01

The annual growth of many tree species is limited by water availability, with growth increasing as water becomes less scarce. In lowland bogs of northern Minnesota, however, black spruce (Picea mariana) is often exposed to excess water via high water table elevations. These trees grow in thick deposits of organic mucky peat and often have shallow rooting systems to avoid the complete submersion of roots in water. While it is generally believed that black spruce decrease growth rates with rising water table elevations, this hypothesis has not been tested in situ. We used a unique, 50-year record of daily bog water table elevations at the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF) in northern Minnesota to investigate the relationship between climate and black spruce productivity. Nine 1/20th ha circular plots were established in five different bogs and tree height, diameter-at-breast-height (DBH), and crown class were recorded. Additionally, two perpendicular cores were collected on all trees greater than 10 cm diameter-at-breast-height. Tree cores were sanded, mounted, cross-dated, and de-trended according to standard dendrochronological procedures. Ring width measurements were correlated with precipitation, temperature, and water table elevation using package BootRes in R to determine the climatic variables most associated with stand level productivity. Across the different plots, we found that early growing season water table elevation (May and June) was negatively correlated with both individual and stand-level black spruce growth (p < 0.01), while growth was positively correlated with March temperatures (p < 0.01). No significant relationships existed between black spruce growth and monthly precipitation. If summer water table elevations in these peatland ecosystems rise as is anticipated with more extreme precipitation events due to climate change, we could see an overall decrease in the stand level productivity of black spruce.

Monitoring Rainfall by Combining Ground-based Observed Precipitation and PERSIANN Satellite Product (Case Study Area: Lake Urmia Basin)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrishamchi, A.; Mirshahi, A.

2015-12-01

The global coverage, quick access, and appropriate spatial-temporal resolution of satellite precipitation data renders the data appropriate for hydrologic studies, especially in regions with no sufficient rain-gauge network. On the other hand, satellite precipitation products may have major errors. The present study aims at reduction of estimation error of the PERSIANN satellite precipitation product. Bayesian logic employed to develop a statistical relationship between historical ground-based and satellite precipitation data. This relationship can then be used to reduce satellite precipitation product error in near real time, when there is no ground-based precipitation observation. The method was evaluated in the Lake Urmia basin with a monthly time scale; November to May of 2000- 2008 for the purpose of model development and two years of 2009 and 2010 for the validation of the established relationships. Moreover, Kriging interpolation method was employed to estimate the average rainfall in the basin. Furthermore, to downscale the satellite precipitation product from 0.25o to 0.05o, data-location downscaling algorithm was used. In 76 percent of months, the final product, compared with the satellite precipitation, had less error during the validation period. Additionally, its performance was marginally better than adjusted PERSIANN product.

Computation of rainfall erosivity from daily precipitation amounts.

PubMed

Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Tomas-Burguera, Miquel

2018-10-01

Rainfall erosivity is an important parameter in many erosion models, and the EI30 defined by the Universal Soil Loss Equation is one of the best known erosivity indices. One issue with this and other erosivity indices is that they require continuous breakpoint, or high frequency time interval, precipitation data. These data are rare, in comparison to more common medium-frequency data, such as daily precipitation data commonly recorded by many national and regional weather services. Devising methods for computing estimates of rainfall erosivity from daily precipitation data that are comparable to those obtained by using high-frequency data is, therefore, highly desired. Here we present a method for producing such estimates, based on optimal regression tools such as the Gamma Generalised Linear Model and universal kriging. Unlike other methods, this approach produces unbiased and very close to observed EI30, especially when these are aggregated at the annual level. We illustrate the method with a case study comprising more than 1500 high-frequency precipitation records across Spain. Although the original records have a short span (the mean length is around 10 years), computation of spatially-distributed upscaling parameters offers the possibility to compute high-resolution climatologies of the EI30 index based on currently available, long-span, daily precipitation databases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of SWAT Hydrological Model Results from TRMM 3B42, NEXRAD Stage III, and Oklahoma Mesonet Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobin, K. J.; Bennett, M. E.

2008-05-01

The Cimarron River Basin (3110 sq km) between Dodge and Guthrie, Oklahoma is located in northern Oklahoma and was used as a test bed to compare the hydrological model performance associated with different methods of precipitation quantification. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected for this project, which is a comprehensive model that, besides quantifying watershed hydrology, can simulate water quality as well as nutrient and sediment loading within stream reaches. An advantage of this location is the extensive monitoring of MET parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation) afforded by the Oklahoma Mesonet, which has been documented to improve the performance of SWAT. The utility of TRMM 3B42 and NEXRAD Stage III data in supporting the hydrologic modeling of Cimarron River Basin is demonstrated. Minor adjustments to selected model parameters were made to make parameter values more realistic based on results from previous studies and information and to more realistically simulate base flow. Significantly, no ad hoc adjustments to major parameters such as Curve Number or Available Soil Water were made and robust simulations were obtained. TRMM and NEXRAD data are aggregated into an average daily estimate of precipitation for each TRMM grid cell (0.25 degree X 0.25 degree). Preliminary simulation of stream flow (year 2004 to 2006) in the Cimarron River Basin yields acceptable monthly results with very little adjustment of model parameters using TRMM 3B42 precipitation data (mass balance error = 3 percent; Monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NS) = 0.77). However, both Oklahoma Mesonet rain gauge (mass balance error = 13 percent; Monthly NS = 0.91; Daily NS = 0.64) and NEXRAD Stage III data (mass balance error = -5 percent; Monthly NS = 0.95; Daily NS = 0.69) produces superior simulations even at a sub-monthly time scale; daily results are time averaged over a three day period. Note that all types of precipitation data perform better than a synthetic precipitation dataset generated using a weather simulator (mass balance error = 12 percent; Monthly NS = 0.40). Our study again documents that merged precipitation satellite products, such as TRMM 3B42, can support semi-distributed hydrologic modeling at the watershed scale. However, apparently additional work is required to improve TRMM precipitation retrievals over land to generate a product that yields more robust hydrological simulations especially at finer time scales. Additionally, ongoing work in this basin will compare TRMM results with stream flow model results generated using CMORPH precipitation estimates. Finally, in the future we plan to use simulated, semi-distributed soil moisture values determined by SWAT for comparison with gridded soil moisture estimates from TRMM-TMI that should provide further validation of our modeling efforts.

Water resources of the Tulalip Indian Reservation and adjacent area, Snohomish County, Washington, 2001-03

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Kresch, David L.

2004-01-01

This study was undertaken to improve the understanding of water resources of the Tulalip Plateau area, with a primary emphasis on the Tulalip Indian Reservation, in order to address concerns of the Tulalip Tribes about the effects of current and future development, both on and off the Reservation, on their water resources. The drinking-water supply for the Reservation comes almost entirely from ground water, so increasing population will continue to put more pressure on this resource. The study evaluated the current state of ground- and surface-water resources and comparing results with those of studies in the 1970s and 1980s. The study included updating descriptions of the hydrologic framework and ground-water system, determining if discharge and base flow in streams and lake stage have changed significantly since the 1970s, and preparing new estimates of the water budget. The hydrogeologic framework was described using data collected from 255 wells, including their location and lithology. Data collected for the Reservation water budget included continuous and periodic streamflow measurements, micrometeorological data including daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, water-use data, and atmospheric chloride deposition collected under both wet- and dry-deposition conditions to estimate ground-water recharge. The Tulalip Plateau is composed of unconsolidated sediments of Quaternary age that are mostly of glacial origin. There are three aquifers and two confining units as well as two smaller units that are only localized in extent. The Vashon recessional outwash (Qvr) is the smallest of the three aquifers and lies in the Marysville Trough on the eastern part of the study area. The primary aquifer in terms of use is the Vashon advance outwash (Qva). The Vashon till (Qvt) and the transitional beds (Qtb) act as confining units. The Vashon till overlies Qva and the transitional beds underlie Qva and separate it from the undifferentiated sediments (Qu), which are also a principal aquifer of the plateau. The undifferentiated-sediments aquifer is present throughout the entire study area, but is not well defined because few wells penetrate it. Ground water flows radially outward from the center of the Plateau in the Vashon advance outwash aquifer. Water levels fluctuate seasonally in all hydrogeologic units in response to changes in precipitation over the course of the year. However, water levels do not appear to have changed significantly over the long term. There was no statistically significant change between water levels measured in 72 wells in the early 1990s and 2001. Additionally, when a rank sum test was used to compare monthly water levels measured in 18 wells for this study with monthly water levels from the 1970s and 1980s, water levels increased in some wells, decreased in some, and did not change significantly in others. Ground water in the study area is recharged from precipitation that percolates down from the land surface. Average annual recharge, estimated using the chloride-mass-balance method, was 10.4 inches per year. Current streamflow conditions on the Reservation were defined by four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations operated from April 2001 through March 2003 and monthly measurements of discharge at 12 periodic-measurement sites. Two continuous-record gaging stations (12157250 and 12158040) near the mouths of Mission and Tulalip Creeks, respectively, also were operated during water years 1975-77. Correlations of streamflow for Mission and Tulalip Creeks with the long-term record of streamflow at Mercer Creek (station 12120000) indicate no significant change in streamflow between the mid-1970s and 2001?03 in Mission and Tulalip Creeks. However, comparisons between the percentage of change in precipitation at the Everett precipitation station and percentages of change in streamflow at the Mercer, Mission, and Tulalip Creek gaging stations from the mid-1970s through 2001

Integrating the EMPD with an Alpine altitudinal training set to reconstruct climate variables in Holocene pollen records from high-altitude peat bogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furlanetto, Giulia; Badino, Federica; Brunetti, Michele; Champvillair, Elena; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, Valter; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Vallé, Francesca

2016-04-01

Temperatures and precipitation are the main environmental factors influencing vegetation and pollen production. Knowing the modern climate optima and tolerances of those plants represented in fossil assemblages and assuming that the relationships between plants and climate in the past are not dissimilar from the modern ones, fossil pollen records offer many descriptors to reconstruct past climate variables. The aim of our work is to investigate the potential of high-altitude pollen records from an Alpine peat bog (TBValter, close to the Ruitor Glacier, Western Italian Alps) for quantitative paleoclimate estimates. The idea behind is that high-altitude ecosystems are more sensitive to climate changes, especially to changes in July temperatures that severely affect the timberline ecotone. Meantime, we met with difficulties when considering the factors involved in pollen dispersal over a complex altitudinal mountain pattern, such as the Alps. We used the EMPD-European Modern Pollen Database (Davis et al., 2013) as modern training set to be compared with our high-altitude fossil site. The EMPD dataset is valuable in that it provides a large geographic coverage of main ecological and climate gradients (at sub-continental scale) but lacks in sampling of altitudinal gradients and high-altitude sites in the Alps. We therefore designed an independent altitudinal training set for the alpine valley hosting our fossil site. 27 sampling plots were selected along a 1700m-elevational transect. In a first step, each plot was provided with (i) 3 moss polsters collected following the guidelines provided by Cañellas-Boltà et al. (2009) and analyzed separately to account for differences in pollen deposition at small scale, (ii) morphometrical parameters obtained through a high-resolution DEM, and (iii) temperature and precipitation were estimated by means of weighted linear regression of the meteorological variable versus elevation, locally evaluated for each site (Brunetti et al., 2014), starting from a dense and quality-controlled observational dataset. In the most advanced step, we designed calibration functions using modern pollen and climate data stored in the EMPD and integrated with the 27 samples from the altitudinal training set. Regression and calibration method (LWWA) and MAT (Modern Analogue Technique) were used to reconstruct temperatures and precipitation. We applied the models to our fossil site to infer temperatures of the coldest (Tjan) and warmest (Tjul) months and the mean annual precipitation (Pann). Finally we compared our results with established climate proxy records (oxygen isotope records from ice cores, records of Alpine Glaciers fluctuations, stalagmites). This research is promoted by the CNR-DTA NextData Project. Brunetti et al., 2014. International Journal of Climatology 34, 1278-1296. Cañellas-Boltà et al., 2009. The Holocene 19(8), 1185-1200. Davis et al., 2013. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 22, 521-530.

Geophysical analysis of coherent satellite scintillation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fremouw, E. J.; Lansinger, J. M.; Miller, D. A.

1981-11-01

In May of 1976, Air Force Satellite P76-5 was launched with the Defense Nuclear Agency's Wideband beacon, DNA-002, as its sole payload. Several researchers have employed the resulting data in studies of ionospheric structure and its effect on transionospheric radio communications. In the present work, recordings of amplitude and phase scintillation imposed on Wideband's VHF and UHF signals by the ionosphere have been used to study medium-scale structures in the auroral-zone F layer. Results include quantitative identification of a very close relationship between scintillation and solar/geomagnetic activity, together with lack of a seasonal variation in scintillation activity in the Alaskan sector. A surprisingly high correlation (90%) was found between monthly means of phase-scintillation index, on the one hand, and sunspot number and 10-cm solar radio flux, on the other. The high-latitude scintillation boundary was found to be very similar to the soft-electron precipitation boundary, including similarity in expansion rates with increasing magnetic activity. Interestingly, it is systematically shifted poleward of the precipitation boundary on the day side of the earth and equatorward on the night side. Taken together, the results of this research disclose a rather direct relationship between scintillation and soft-electron precipitation, with plasma convection likely playing an important role in generation of the scintillation-producing irregularities.

Role of Non-Precipitation Sources in Regulating the River Hydrology of a Himalayan Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grover, S.; Tayal, S.; Beldring, S.

2017-12-01

Hydrology of mountain catchments in Himalayas is strongly regulated by snow/ ice melt. Chenab basin of Himalayas is a snow and glacier fed basin, which makes it perennial and an important source of sustenance for downstream community. It is important to understand the variability in contribution from various sources to the water balance of catchment. Indirect assessment techniques are important to make such an assessment about the runoff patterns especially in data-scarce basins like Chenab. To analyze runoff patterns and contribution from different sources, we applied combination of semi-distributed HBV model and water balance approach for the period between 1971-2007. It was found that the contribution from non-precipitation sources to the total outflow in this region ranged from 30-70% with approximately 30% from glacier ice melt, and base-flow contributing around 20% to annual water-balance. Least precipitation year of 1977 shows maximum contribution from other sources, but also recorded the least outflow in catchment. Seasonal variation of the contribution from glacier ice melt was also estimated and in the months of May and June around 44% of the contribution to the outflow is from glacier melt only. Hydrological balance of the basin is positive during winters with outflow being very less than the inflow of water through precipitation or melt. Melt season starts in March but peaks during May and June with cryospheric contribution being almost twice the base flow contribution. Melting starts receding slowly after September, with its contribution to the outflow declining much below the baseflow contribution in October and November, when base-flow provides around 65% of water to the basin's outflow. Long term (1951-2010) temperature and precipitation data for the higher reaches of the basin indicates a warming trend (0.02 0C yr-1) and a decline in annual precipitation. But on a basin scale, precipitation is increasing and the non-precipitation contribution from snow/ ice melt and base flow is declining. This further emphasizes the fact that climate change is affecting the precipitation regime and liquid precipitation is taking a dominant position in an otherwise snow/ ice fed catchment. Thus, in Chenab basin, non-precipitation contribution is important to drive its water balance.

Evaluation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation extremes in southern Brazil considering the ODP phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firpo, M. A.; Sansigolo, C. A.

2011-12-01

One of the most important modes of interannual variability from ocean-atmosphere system is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO. The Brazil southern region belongs to the Southeast of South America, where there is a strong signal of ENSO, especially over the precipitation. This phenomenon can be modulated by low frequency climate patterns, especially the dominant pattern of North Pacific, called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Attempting to better understand these interactions, the objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal impact of ENSO events over the Southern Brazil precipitation, taking into account the PDO phases. The dataset used in this study, consist of monthly precipitation records of six well distributed stations from southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state). From these series it was calculated a unique index, which was categorized in three classes, in order to obtain the extremes: very below normal precipitation (below the percentile 10), normal precipitation (between percentile 10 and 90) and very above normal precipitation (above the percentile 90). To characterize the ENSO events, it was applied the Trenberth (1997) criteria in the index proposed by Bunge and Clarke (2009), which corrects the inconsistencies between the conventional SST index for Niño 3.4 region and the Southern Oscillation Index before 1950, going beyond the incoherence for decadal scale. For PDO, it was used the index proposed by Mantua et al. (1997). Contingency tables were constructed to analyze the seasonal, simultaneous, and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months lagged relationships between ENSO events (El Niño, neutral, La Niña), and extreme precipitation anomalies (categories), also considering the PDO phases during the 1913-1999 period. Moreover, a wavelet analysis was used to check the coherency and phase among these 3 times series during the 1913-2006 period. The Contingency Tables analysis showed that, generally, there were more positive (negative) precipitation extreme events in El Niño (La Niña) conditions. The impact of El Niño in the increase of rainfall quantities is higher than the impact of La Niña in its reduction. Furthermore, the El Niño impacts are more persistent. For La Niña analyses, the period of DJF (summer austral) showed bigger lag on this impact; for El Niño the impact starts simultaneously in all seasons and lasted more in JJA. Considering PDO phases, in warm (cold) phase there were more El Niño (La Niña) events. When PDO is positive, the impact of El Niño is stronger over the precipitation increase than in negative phase. The same occurs with La Niña, and the decrease of precipitation in the negative phase of PDO, but only for the DJF period. The Cross-Wavelets showed that PDO and ENSO interacts in both time scales, with ENSO leading PDO in the scale of 4-7 years, and PDO leading ENSO in 16-28 years. Both PDO and ENSO are coherent with the precipitation index in the scale of 2-7 years, but this coherence only appears in the periods of positive phase of PDO. Thus, only ENOS do not explain the climate variability in this region, and it is important to consider the PDO phases in studies of impacts of ENSO in the precipitation extremes in Southern Brazil.

The decreasing range between dry- and wet- season precipitation over land and its effect on vegetation primary productivity.

PubMed

Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Maass, Manuel; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen

2017-01-01

One consequence of climate change is the alteration of global water fluxes, both in amount and seasonality. As a result, the seasonal difference between dry- (p < 100 mm/month) and wet-season (p > 100 mm/month) precipitation (p) has increased over land during recent decades (1980-2005). However, our analysis expanding to a 60-year period (1950-2009) showed the opposite trend. This is, dry-season precipitation increased steadily, while wet-season precipitation remained constant, leading to reduced seasonality at a global scale. The decrease in seasonality was not due to a change in dry-season length, but in precipitation rate; thus, the dry season is on average becoming wetter without changes in length. Regionally, wet- and dry-season precipitations are of opposite sign, causing a decrease in the seasonal variation of the precipitation over 62% of the terrestrial ecosystems. Furthermore, we found a high correlation (r = 0.62) between the change in dry-season precipitation and the trend in modelled net primary productivity (NPP), which is explained based on different ecological mechanisms. This trend is not found with wet-season precipitation (r = 0.04), These results build on the argument that seasonal water availability has changed over the course of the last six decades and that the dry-season precipitation is a key driver of vegetation productivity at the global scale.

The decreasing range between dry- and wet- season precipitation over land and its effect on vegetation primary productivity

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

One consequence of climate change is the alteration of global water fluxes, both in amount and seasonality. As a result, the seasonal difference between dry- (p < 100 mm/month) and wet-season (p > 100 mm/month) precipitation (p) has increased over land during recent decades (1980–2005). However, our analysis expanding to a 60-year period (1950–2009) showed the opposite trend. This is, dry-season precipitation increased steadily, while wet-season precipitation remained constant, leading to reduced seasonality at a global scale. The decrease in seasonality was not due to a change in dry-season length, but in precipitation rate; thus, the dry season is on average becoming wetter without changes in length. Regionally, wet- and dry-season precipitations are of opposite sign, causing a decrease in the seasonal variation of the precipitation over 62% of the terrestrial ecosystems. Furthermore, we found a high correlation (r = 0.62) between the change in dry-season precipitation and the trend in modelled net primary productivity (NPP), which is explained based on different ecological mechanisms. This trend is not found with wet-season precipitation (r = 0.04), These results build on the argument that seasonal water availability has changed over the course of the last six decades and that the dry-season precipitation is a key driver of vegetation productivity at the global scale. PMID:29284050

Climate change effects on landslides in southern B.C.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, M.

2009-04-01

Two mechanisms that contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in coastal British Columbia are ante¬cedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide fre¬quencies. In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question, the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short- term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Colum¬bia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating sta¬tistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall. The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenar¬ios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. In order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in sim¬ulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data, a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means. The qualitative model results agree reasonably well, and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios, the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides, the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century.

Spatially distinct effects of preceding precipitation on heat stress over Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Liu, X.; Zhang, X.; Groisman, P. Y.; Sun, S.; Lu, H.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

In many terrestrial regions, higher than usual surface temperatures are associated with (or even are induced by) surface moisture deficits. When in the warm season temperatures become anomalously high, their extreme values affect human beings causing heat stress. Besides increased temperature, rising humidity may also have substantial implications for human body thermal comfort. However, effects of surface moisture on heat stress, when considering both temperature and humidity, are less known. In this study, the relationship between the number of hot days in July as indicated by the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and preceding 3-month precipitation was assessed over Eastern China. It is found that the probability of occurrence of the above-the-average number of hot days exceeds 0.7 after preceding precipitation deficit in northeastern China, but is less than 0.3 in southeastern China. Generally, over Eastern China, precipitation in preceding months is negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with specific humidity in July. The combined effects generate a spatially distinct pattern: precipitation deficits in preceding months enhance heat stress in northeastern China while in southern China these deficits are associated with reduction of heat stress. In the south, abundant preceding precipitation tends to increase atmospheric humidity that is instrumental for increase of heat stress. These results contribute predictive information about the probability of mid-summer heat stress in Eastern China a few weeks ahead of its occurrence.

Validation and Development of the GPCP Experimental One-Degree Daily (1DD) Global Precipitation Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.; Einaud, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation dataset has been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and is currently in beta test preparatory to release as an official GPCP product. The 1DD provides a globally-complete, observation-only estimate of precipitation on a daily 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid for the period 1997 through early 2000 (by the time of the conference). In the latitude band 40N-40S the 1DD uses the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI), a GPI-like IR product with the pixel-level T(sub b) threshold and (single) conditional rain rate determined locally for each month by the frequency of precipitation in the GPROF SSM/I product and by, the precipitation amount in the GPCP monthly satellite-gauge (SG) combination. Outside 40N-40S the 1DD uses a scaled TOVS precipitation estimate that has month-by-month adjustments based on the TMPI and the SG. Early validation results are encouraging. The 1DD shows relatively large scatter about the daily validation values in individual grid boxes, as expected for a technique that depends on cloud-sensing schemes such as the TMPI and TOVS. On the other hand, the time series of 1DD shows good correlation with validation in individual boxes. For example, the 1997-1998 time series of 1DD and Oklahoma Mesonet values in a grid box in northeastern Oklahoma have the correlation coefficient = 0.73. Looking more carefully at these two time series, the number of raining days for the 1DD is within 7% of the Mesonet value, while the distribution of daily rain values is very similar. Other tests indicate that area- or time-averaging improve the error characteristics, making the data set highly attractive to users interested in stream flow, short-term regional climatology, and model comparisons. The second generation of the 1DD product is currently under development; it is designed to directly incorporate TRMM and other high-quality precipitation estimates. These data are generally sparse because they are observed by low-orbit satellites, so a fair amount of work must be devoted to analyzing the effect of data boundaries. This work is laying, the groundwork for effective use of the NASA Global Precipitation Mission, which will have full Global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours.

Widespread extreme drought events in Iberia and their relationship with North Atlantic moisture flux deficit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Montero, Irene; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2015-04-01

Droughts represent one of the most frequent climatic extreme events on the Iberian Peninsula, often with widespread negative ecological and environmental impacts, resulting in major socio-economic damages such as large decreases in hydroelectricity and agricultural productions or increasing forest fire risk. Unlike other weather driven extreme events, droughts duration could be from few months to several years. Here we employ a recently developed climatic drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI; Vicente-Serrano et al. 2010a), based on the simultaneous use of precipitation and temperature fields. This index holds the advantage of combining a multi-scalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010a). In this study the SPEI was computed using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS3.21 High Resolution Gridded Data (0.5°) for the period 1901-2012. At this resolution the study region of Iberian Peninsula corresponds to a square of 30x30 grid pixels. The CRU Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) was used, through the Penmann-Monteith equation and the log-logistic probability distribution. This formulation allows a very good fit to the series of differences between precipitation and PET (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010b), using monthly averages of daily maximum and minimum temperature data and also monthly precipitation records. The parameters were estimated by means of the L-moment method. The application of multi-scalar indices to the high-resolution datasets allows identifying whether the Iberian Peninsula is in hydric stress and also whether drought is installed. Based on the gridded SPEI datasets, spanning from 1901 to 2012, obtained for timescales 6, 12, 18 and 24 months, an objective method is applied for ranking the most extensive extreme drought events that occurred on the Iberian Peninsula. This objective method is based on the evaluation of the drought's magnitude, which is obtained after considering the area affected - defined by SPEI values over a certain threshold (in this case SPEI < -1.28) - as well as its intensity in each grid point. Different rankings are presented for the different timescales considering both the entire Iberian Peninsula and Portugal. Furthermore we used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis in the 1948-2012 period, namely, the geopotential height, temperature, wind and specific humidity fields at all pressure levels and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and total column water vapour (TCWV) for the Euro-Atlantic sector (60° W to 40° E, 20° N to 70° N) at full temporal (six hourly) and spatial (2.5° regular horizontal grid) resolutions available as well as the globally gridded monthly precipitation products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), to analyse the large-scale conditions associated with the most extreme droughts in Iberia. Results show that during these drought periods there is a clear moisture deficit over the region, with permanent negative anomalies of TCWV. Additionally, in these occasions, the zonal moisture transport is more intense over the northern Atlantic and less intense on the subtropics while the meridional moisture transport is intensified, in accordance with the barotropic structure of HGT anomalies. Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J.I. (2010a). A Multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index - SPEI. Journal of Climate, 23, 1696-1718. Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J.I., Angulo, M., and El Kenawy, A. (2010b). A new global 0.5° gridded dataset (1901-2006) of a multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11, 1033-1043 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

On the treatment of evapotranspiration, soil moisture accounting, and aquifer recharge in monthly water balance models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William M.

1984-01-01

Several two- to six-parameter regional water balance models are examined by using 50-year records of monthly streamflow at 10 sites in New Jersey. These models include variants of the Thornthwaite-Mather model, the Palmer model, and the more recent Thomas abcd model. Prediction errors are relatively similar among the models. However, simulated values of state variables such as soil moisture storage differ substantially among the models, and fitted parameter values for different models sometimes indicated an entirely different type of basin response to precipitation. Some problems in parameter identification are noted, including difficulties in identifying an appropriate time lag factor for the Thornthwaite-Mather-type model for basins with little groundwater storage, very high correlations between upper and lower storages in the Palmer-type model, and large sensitivity of parameter a of the abcd model to bias in estimates of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Modifications to the threshold concept of the Thornthwaite-Mather model were statistically valid for the six stations in northern New Jersey. The abcd model resulted in a simulated seasonal cycle of groundwater levels similar to fluctuations observed in nearby wells but with greater persistence. These results suggest that extreme caution should be used in attaching physical significance to model parameters and in using the state variables of the models in indices of drought and basin productivity.

Disentangling Seasonality and Mean Annual Precipitation in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: Insights from Coupled Plant Wax C and H Isotope Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galy, V.; Oppo, D.; Dubois, N.; Arbuszewski, J. A.; Mohtadi, M.; Schefuss, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2016-12-01

There is ample evidence suggesting that rainfall distribution across the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) - a key component of the global climate system - has substantially varied over the last deglaciation. Yet, the precise nature of these hydroclimate changes remains to be elucidated. In particular, the relative importance of variations in precipitation seasonality versus annual precipitation amount is essentially unknown. Here we use a set of surface sediments from the IPWP covering a wide range of modern hydroclimate conditions to evaluate how plant wax stable isotope composition records rainfall distribution in the area. We focus on long chain fatty acids, which are exclusively produced by vascular plants living on nearby land and delivered to the ocean by rivers. We relate the C (δ13C) and H (δD) isotope composition of long chain fatty acids preserved in surface sediments to modern precipitation distribution and stable isotope composition in their respective source area. We show that: 1) δ13C values reflect vegetation distribution (in particular the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants) and are primarily recording precipitation seasonality (Dubois et al., 2014) and, 2) once corrected for plant fractionation effects, δD values reflect the amount-weighted average stable isotope composition of precipitation and are primarily recording annual precipitation amounts. We propose that combining the C and H isotope composition of long chain fatty acids thus allows independent reconstructions of precipitation seasonality and annual amounts in the IPWP. The practical implications for reconstructing past hydroclimate in the IPWP will be discussed.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A; Hegewisch, Katherine C

2018-01-09

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

High-resolution chemical and hydrologic records identify environmental factors that control coastal anchialine cave ecosystem function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brankovits, D.; Pohlman, J.; Lapham, L.; Casso, M.; Roth, E.; Lowell, N. S.; Iliffe, T. M.

2015-12-01

Anchialine caves host a coastal aquifer ecosystem occupied by cave-adapted crustaceans that reside within distinct fresh, brackish and marine waters. Our initial investigation of this subsurface ecotone in the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) provides stable isotope-based evidence that methane and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are the primary sources of energy and carbon for the food web. However, the frequency of observations is sparse, leaving us 'in the dark' with respect to the temporal dynamics of the ecosystem function. In this study, we obtained undisturbed vertical profiles of methane, DOC and DIC concentration and isotopic composition with the 'Octopipi' water sampler from an anchialine cave located ~8 km from the coastline. To document the temporal variability of methane availability in the cave, we deployed an osmotically-driven pump (OsmoSampler). Data loggers recorded dissolved oxygen (DO), salinity, temperature and current velocities, and a rain gauge recorded precipitation. A high-methane water mass near the ceiling (up to 7795 nM) contained elevated concentration (900 µM), 13C-depleted (-27.8 to -28.2 ‰) DOC, suggesting terrestrial organic matter input from the overlying soils. Low-methane saline water (36 to 84 nM) had lower concentration DOC (15 to 97 µM) with a similar δ13C (-25.9 to -27.2 ‰), suggesting significant terrestrial organic matter consumption or removal with increasing depth, from fresh to saline water, within the water column. Our 6-month water chemistry record reveals high concentrations of methane in the wet season, especially following rainfall events, and relatively lower methane concentrations in the dry season. These observations suggest rain flushes methane generated in overlying anoxic soils into the cave. DO, water level, and groundwater flow patterns were also linked to the precipitation record. These data provide novel insight into the interconnections between external climate forcing and subterranean anchialine ecosystems within coastal aquifers.

What records have we been breaking?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, J.M.; Milhous, R.

2002-01-01

"Today was another record-breaking day," the evening radio or television declares. High temperatures, low temperatures, floods, drought - take your choice. But how can we put these pronouncements in perspective? What do they really mean?We present two types of information in this article: 1) an analysis of daily air temperature and precipitation for Fort Collins and 2) an analysis of annual precipitation for Fort Collins. Each analysis provides a different meaning to the statement about a record-breaking day or year.

Late-Eighteenth-Century Precipitation Reconstructions from James Madison's Montpelier Plantation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druckenbrod, Daniel L.; Mann, Michael E.; Stahle, David W.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Therrell, Matthew D.; Shugart, Herman H.

2003-01-01

This study presents two independent reconstructions of precipitation from James Madison's Montpelier plantation at the end of the eighteenth century. The first is transcribed directly from meteorological diaries recorded by the Madison family for 17 years and reflects the scientific interests of James Madison and Thomas Jefferson. In his most active period as a scientist, Madison assisted Jefferson by observing the climate and fauna in Virginia to counter the contemporary scientific view that the humid, cold climate of the New World decreased the size and number of its species. The second reconstruction is generated using tree rings from a forest in the Montpelier plantation and connects Madison's era to the modern instrumental precipitation record. These trees provide a significant reconstruction of both early summer and prior fall precipitation. Comparison of the dendroclimatic and diary reconstructions suggests a delay in the seasonality of precipitation from Madison's era to the mid-twentieth century. Furthermore, the dendroclimatic reconstructions of early summer and prior fall precipitation appear to track this shift in seasonality.

Using vegetation model-to-data comparisons to test the role of abiotic factors in the Neogene and Quaternary origins of modern C4 grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, D. L.; Strömberg, C.; Pau, S.; Taylor, L.; Lehmann, C.; Osborne, C.; Beerling, D. J.; Still, C. J.

2014-12-01

Grasslands dominated by taxa using the C4 photosynthetic pathway evolved on several continents during the Neogene and Quaternary, long after C4 photosynthesis first evolved among grasses. The histories of these ecosystems are relatively well documented in the geological record from stable carbon isotopes (fossil vertebrate herbivores, paleosols) and the plant microfossil record (pollen, phytoliths). The distinct biogeography and ecophysiology of modern C3 and C4 grasses have led to hypotheses explaining the origins of C4 grasslands in terms of long term changes in the Earth system such as increased aridity and decreasing atmospheric pCO2. However, proxies for key parameters of these hypotheses (e.g., temperature, precipitation, pCO2) are still in development, not yet widely applied, or remain contentious, so testing the hypotheses globally remains difficult. To understand better possible links between changes in the Earth system and the origin of C4 grasslands on different continents, we are undertaking a global scale comparison between observational records of C4 grass abundances in Miocene and Pliocene localities compiled from the literature, and three increasingly complex models of C4 dominance and abundance. The literature compilation comprises >2,600 δ13C values of both fossil vertebrates and of paleosol carbonates and >6,700 paleobotanical records. We are using paleoclimate output from the HadCM3L GCM over a range of pCO2 values for each epoch to model C4 dominance or abundance in grid cells as (Model 1) months per year exceeding the temperature at which net assimilation is greater for C4 than C3 photosynthesis (crossover temperature); (Model 2) the number of months per year exceeding the crossover temperature and having sufficient precipitation for growth (≥25 cm/yr; Collatz model); and (Model 3) the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM), output from which includes biomass (g C/m2/yr) for distinct structural components (roots, stems, leaves) of multiple plant functional types (C3 and C4 grasses, evergreen and deciduous trees). Statistical comparisons of the isotopic and paleobotanical databases with the paleoclimate and vegetation model outputs allows us to assess the possible role of abiotic factors in the evolution of modern C4 grasslands during the late Neogene.

Decadal fluctuations in the western Pacific recorded by long precipitation records in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wan-Ru; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Guan, Biing T.

2018-03-01

A 110-year precipitation record in Taiwan, located at the western edge of the subtropical North Pacific, depicts a pronounced quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO). The QDO in Taiwan exhibits a fluctuating relationship with the similar decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, known as the Pacific QDO. A regime change was observed around 1960, such that the decadal variation of Taiwan's precipitation became more synchronized with the Pacific QDO's coupled evolutions of SST and atmospheric circulation than before, while the underlying pattern of the Pacific QOD did not change. Using long-term reanalysis data and CMIP5 single-forcing experiments, the presented analysis suggests that increased SST in the subtropical western Pacific and the strengthened western extension of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone may have collectively enhanced the relationship between the Taiwan precipitation and the Pacific QDO. This finding provides possible clues to similar regime changes in quasi-decadal variability observed around the western Pacific rim.

Drought analysis in the Tons River Basin, India during 1969-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Gautam, Randhir; Kahya, Ercan

2018-05-01

The primary focus of this study is the analysis of droughts in the Tons River Basin during the period 1969-2008. Precipitation data observed at four gauging stations are used to identify drought over the study area. The event of drought is derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on a 3-month scale. Our results indicated that severe drought occurred in the Allahabad, Rewa, and Satna stations in the years 1973 and 1979. The droughts in this region had occurred mainly due to erratic behavior in monsoons, especially due to long breaks between monsoons. During the drought years, the deficiency of the annual rainfall in the analysis of annual rainfall departure had varied from -26% in 1976 to -60% in 1973 at Allahabad station in the basin. The maximum deficiency of annual and seasonal rainfall recorded in the basin is 60%. The maximum seasonal rainfall departure observed in the basin is in the order of -60% at Allahabad station in 1973, while maximum annual rainfall departure had been recorded as -60% during 1979 at the Satna station. Extreme dry events ( z score <-2) were detected during July, August, and September. Moreover, severe dry events were observed in August, September, and October. The drought conditions in the Tons River Basin are dominantly driven by total rainfall throughout the period between June and November.

Observational evidence for volcanic impact on sea level and the global water cycle.

PubMed

Grinsted, A; Moore, J C; Jevrejeva, S

2007-12-11

It has previously been noted that there are drops in global sea level (GSL) after some major volcanic eruptions. However, observational evidence has not been convincing because there is substantial variability in the global sea level record over periods similar to those at which we expect volcanoes to have an impact. To quantify the impact of volcanic eruptions we average monthly GSL data from 830 tide gauge records around five major volcanic eruptions. Surprisingly, we find that the initial response to a volcanic eruption is a significant rise in sea level of 9 +/- 3 mm in the first year after the eruption. This rise is followed by a drop of 7 +/- 3 mm in the period 2-3 years after the eruption relative to preeruption sea level. These results are statistically robust and no particular volcanic eruption or ocean region dominates the signature we find. Neither the drop nor especially the rise in GSL can be explained by models of lower oceanic heat content. We suggest that the mechanism is a transient disturbance of the water cycle with a delayed response of land river runoff relative to ocean evaporation and global precipitation that affects global sea level. The volcanic impact on the water cycle and sea levels is comparable in magnitude to that of a large El Niño-La Niña cycle, amounting to approximately 5% of global land precipitation.

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh ul

2015-06-01

Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring a distinct wet and dry season, it is directly related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. Models participating to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, Phase 5, consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in West Africa, western Mexico and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a general circulation model are associated with excessively peaked monthly precipitation fractions, too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding and following the wet season; negative biases are instead due, in most cases, to an excess of rainfall during the premonsoonal months.

Regional analysis of annual precipitation maxima in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles

1997-01-01

Dimensionless precipitation-frequency curves for estimating precipitation depths having large recurrence intervals were developed for 2-, 6-, and 24-hour storm durations for three homogeneous regions in Montana. Within each homogeneous region, at-site annual precipitation maxima were made dimensionless by dividing by the at-site mean and grouped so that a single frequency curve would be applicable for each duration. L-moment statistics were used to help define the homogeneous regions and to develop the dimensionless precipitation- frequency curves. Data from 459 precipitation stations were used after application of statistical tests to ensure that the data were not serially correlated and were stationary over the general period of data collection (1900-92). The data were found to have a small, but significant, degree of interstation correlation. The GEV distribution was used to construct dimensionless frequency curves of annual precipitation maxima for each duration within each region. Each dimensionless frequency curve was considered to be reliable for recurrence intervals up to the effective record length. Because of significant, though small, interstation correlation in all regions for all durations, and because the selected regions exhibited some heterogeneity, the effective record length was considered to be less than the total number of station-years of data. The effective record length for each duration in each region was estimated using a graphical method and found to range from 500 years for 6-hour duration data in Region 2 to 5,100 years for 24-hour duration data in Region 3.

Reconstructing past climate using a multi-specific 13C-approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrio, Juan Pedro; Aguilera, Mónica; Voltas, Jordi

2010-05-01

Carbon isotope composition (δ13C) in tree-rings has become routinely used in palaeoclimatic research for the assessment of changes in water availability in seasonally dry climates. Long tree-ring chronologies, however, are relatively scarce, whereas the original climate signal of wood δ13C is usually well preserved in fossil charcoal [1, 4] Accordingly, charcoal δ13C records are an alternative to classic dendroclimatology to characterize past changes in water availability (e.g. precipitation). In this work, we explore the potential for palaeoenvironmental research of two co-occuring Mediterranean species with contrasting strategies to cope with drought [2]: Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) and holm oak (Quercus ilex L.). We hypothesize that the differential sensitivity of pine and oak to climate variables can be exploited to refine palaeoclimate reconstructions based on δ13C in wood or charcoal. For this purpose, we put together published tree-core-δ13C data from 40 sites across Spain [2, 3] and new δ13C data from 15 sites where both species co-existed in mixed stands. The sites were selected to represent the range of variation in thermal and precipitation regimes for these species, while avoiding any correlation between precipitation and temperature across sites. Five dominant or codominant trees were selected per site, and microcores including the most recently formed tree rings were obtained with a Trephor tool [5]. Fragments were oven-dried at 60 ° C for 48 h and milled separately to a fine powder using a ball mill (Retsch MM301, Haan, Germany) for δ13C analysis. Current meteorological data (monthly estimates of air mean temperature (minimum, mean and maximum), precipitation and solar radiation) was obtained from the Digital Climatic Atlas of the Iberian Peninsula (http://opengis.uab.es/wms/iberia/index.htm) (spatial resolution of 200 m). A family of models (either linear or exponential) best predicting monthly and annual precipitation from δ13C records was identified, and a leave-one-out cross-validation process was applied to the multi-specific data in order to improve accuracy of climate inferences. In general, Aleppo pine and Holm oak showed a complementary response to precipitation, being more sensitive to spring-summer and autumn-winter periods, respectively. As a case study, the resulting predictive model was applied to charcoal remains of both species recovered from a set of archaeological sites from the Mid Ebro Depresion (North-East Spain) in order to reconstruct aridity changes during the last 4,000 years for this region. (1) Ferrio JP, Alonso N, López JB, Araus JL, Voltas J (2006), Global Change Biol. 12, 1253-1266. (2) Ferrio JP, Florit A, Vega A, Serrano L, Voltas J (2003), Oecologia 137, 512-518. (3) Ferrio JP, Voltas J (2005), Tellus 57B, 164-173. (4) Ferrio JP, Voltas J, Alonso N, Araus JL (2007), In: Dawson TE, Siegwolf R (Eds.), Isotopes as Indicators of Ecological Change, Elsevier Academic Press, New York, pp. 319-332. (5) Rossi S, Anfodillo T, Menardi R (2006), IAWA J. 27, 89-97.

Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Sarwar, Saleem; Urich, Peter; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Wajid, Aftab; Khaliq, Tasneem; Rasul, Fahd; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif; Mubarak, Hussani; Mirza, Nosheen; Wahid, Abdul; Ahamd, Shakeel; Fahad, Shah; Ullah, Abid; Khan, Mohammad Nauman; Ameen, Asif; Amanullah; Shahzad, Babar; Saud, Shah; Alharby, Hesham; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Adnan, Muhammad; Islam, Faisal; Ali, Qazi Shoaib

2018-01-01

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980-2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

A teleconnection study of interannual sea surface temperature fluctuations in the northern North Atlantic and precipitation and runoff over Western Siberia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peng, S.; Mysak, L.A.

The spatial distributions of northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure anomalies averaged over six consecutive warm SST winters (1951-1956) and six consecutive cold SST winters (1971-1976) are examined. Three SLP anomaly difference (i.e., warm - cold winters) centers, significant at the 5% level, are observed over the northern North Atlantic, Europe, and western Siberia. This anomaly pattern is consistent in principle with what was identified in a related analyses by Palmer and Sun, who used composite data from selected winter months. The SLP difference centers over the northern North Atlantic and westernmore » Siberia are in phase. The impact of the latter center upon the runoff from the underlying Ob and Yenisey rivers and especially the teleconnection between SST anomalies in the northern North Atlantic and runoff of those two rivers via the atmosphere are investigated. The temporal cross-correlation analyses of 50 years (1930-1979) of records of SST, precipitation, and runoff anomalies indicate that the winter SST anomalies in the northern North Atlantic are significantly correlated with the winter and following summer runoff fluctuations of the Ob and Yenisey rivers. Positive (negative) northern North Atlantic SST anomalies are related to less (more) precipitation, and hence, less (more) runoff, over western Siberia. Discussions of possible physical mechanisms and processes that lead to the above relationships are attempted. The analyses of spatial distributions of precipitation in the warm and cold SST winters suggest that precipitation fluctuations over Europe and western Siberia may be affected by shifts of cyclone tracks associated with the SST variations in the northern North Atlantic. 27 refs., 9 figs.« less

Dendrogeomorphic Assessment of the Rattlesnake Gulf Landslide in the Tully Valley, Onondaga County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tamulonis, Kathryn L.; Kappel, William M.

2009-01-01

Dendrogeomorphic techniques were used to assess soil movement within the Rattlesnake Gulf landslide in the Tully Valley of central New York during the last century. This landslide is a postglacial, slow-moving earth slide that covers 23 acres and consists primarily of rotated, laminated, glaciolacustrine silt and clay. Sixty-two increment cores were obtained from 30 hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) trees across the active part of the landslide and from 3 control sites to interpret the soil-displacement history. Annual growth rings were measured and reaction wood was identified to indicate years in which ring growth changed from concentric to eccentric, on the premise that soil movement triggered compensatory growth in displaced trees. These data provided a basis for an 'event index' to identify years of landslide activity over the 108 years of record represented by the oldest trees. Event-index values and total annual precipitation increased during this time, but years with sudden event-index increases did not necessarily correspond to years with above-average precipitation. Multiple-regression and residual-values analyses indicated a possible correlation between precipitation and movement within the landslide and a possible cyclic (decades-long) tree-ring response to displacement within the landslide area from the toe upward to, and possibly beyond, previously formed landslide features. The soil movement is triggered by a sequence of factors that include (1) periods of several months with below-average precipitation followed by persistent above-average precipitation, (2) the attendant increase in streamflow, which erodes the landslide toe and results in an upslope propagation of slumping, and (3) the harvesting of mature trees within this landslide during the last century and continuing to the present.

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, B.

2015-06-01

Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud) in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2) (1966-2006). Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd) were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10-20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

The Status of NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission 26 Months After Launch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Gail; Huffman, George

2016-04-01

Water is essential to our planet Earth. Knowing when, where and how precipitation falls is crucial for understanding the linkages between the Earth's water and energy cycles and is extraordinarily important for sustaining life on our planet during climate change. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory spacecraft launched February 27, 2014, is the anchor to the GPM international satellite mission to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products [1-2]. GPM is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). The unique 65o non-Sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 407 km for the GPM Core Observatory allows for highly sophisticated observations of precipitation in the mid-latitudes where a majority of the population lives. Indeed, the GOM Core Observatory serves as the cornerstone, as a physics observatory and a calibration reference to improve precipitation measurements by a constellation of 8 or more dedicated and operational, U.S. and international passive microwave sensors. GPM's requirements are to measure rain rates from 0.2 to 110 mm/hr and to detect and estimate falling snow. GPM has several retrieval product levels ranging from raw instrument data to Core and partner swath precipitation estimates to gridded and accumulated products and finally to multi-satellite merged products. The latter merged product, called IMERG, is available with a 5-hour latency with temporal resolution of 30 minutes and spatial resolution of 0.1o x 0.1o (~10km x 10km) grid box. Some products have a 1-hour latency for societal applications such as floods, landslides, hurricanes, blizzards, and typhoons and all have late-latency high-quality science products. The GPM mission is well on its way to providing essential data on precipitation (rain and snow) from micro to local to global scales via providing precipitation particle size distributions internal to the cloud, 5-15 km estimates of regional precipitation and merged global precipitation. Once TRMM data is recalibrated to the high quality standards of GPM (and as GPM continues to operate), TRMM and GPM together, with partner data) can provide a 25-30+ year record of global precipitation. Scientists and hazard decision makers all over the world value GPM's data. Status and successes in terms of spacecraft, instruments, retrieval products, validation, and impacts for science and society will be presented.

Tropical Pacific forcing on decadal-to-centennial NAO-dominated precipitation variability in northern Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Michel, V.; Jiang, X.; Mii, H. S.; Wang, Y.; Valensi, P.

2017-12-01

We present a multi-annual-resolved absolute-dated stalagmite-inferred precipitation record, with age precision as good as ±2 years, from northern Italy, to reflect North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics since 6.5 ka (thousand years ago, before 1950 C.E.). Our record features millennial precipitation fluctuations punctuated by several centennial-scale drought periods centered at 5.6, 6.2, 4.2, 3.0 and 2.3 ka. The phase relationship with previous NAO-sensitive records suggests a multi-millennial southward migration of the northern Westerlies and enhanced NAO variability from the middle- to late-Holocene. We also found the multi-decadal to centennial rainfall amount could dramatically vary within few decades, possibly affecting ancient Mediterranean civilizations. Concurrence between northern Mediterranean precipitation and western tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records suggests the remote forcing on this NAO-dominated rainfall. We argue that the irregular NAO change nowadays could be related to high frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and might cause an inevitable abrupt hydroclimate change and irreparable impacts on the regional human society in the near future.

The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)

DOE PAGES

Houze, Robert A.; McMurdie, Lynn A.; Petersen, Walter A.; ...

2017-10-30

The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) took place during the 2015/16 fall–winter season in the vicinity of the mountainous Olympic Peninsula of Washington State. The goals of OLYMPEX were to provide physical and hydrologic ground validation for the U.S.–Japan Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite mission and, more specifically, to study how precipitation in Pacific frontal systems is modified by passage over coastal mountains. Four transportable scanning dual-polarization Doppler radars of various wavelengths were installed for this study. Surface stations were placed at various altitudes to measure precipitation rates, particle size distributions, and fall velocities. Autonomous recording cameras monitored and recorded snowmore » accumulation. Four research aircraft supplied by NASA investigated precipitation processes and snow cover, and supplemental rawinsondes and dropsondes were deployed during precipitation events. Finally, numerous Pacific frontal systems were sampled, including several reaching “atmospheric river” status, warm- and cold-frontal systems, and postfrontal convection.« less

The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Houze, Robert A.; McMurdie, Lynn A.; Petersen, Walter A.

The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) took place during the 2015/16 fall–winter season in the vicinity of the mountainous Olympic Peninsula of Washington State. The goals of OLYMPEX were to provide physical and hydrologic ground validation for the U.S.–Japan Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite mission and, more specifically, to study how precipitation in Pacific frontal systems is modified by passage over coastal mountains. Four transportable scanning dual-polarization Doppler radars of various wavelengths were installed for this study. Surface stations were placed at various altitudes to measure precipitation rates, particle size distributions, and fall velocities. Autonomous recording cameras monitored and recorded snowmore » accumulation. Four research aircraft supplied by NASA investigated precipitation processes and snow cover, and supplemental rawinsondes and dropsondes were deployed during precipitation events. Finally, numerous Pacific frontal systems were sampled, including several reaching “atmospheric river” status, warm- and cold-frontal systems, and postfrontal convection.« less

The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Houze, Robert A.; McMurdie, Lynn A.; Petersen, Walter A.

the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) took place during the 2015-2016 fall-winter season in the vicinity of the mountainous Olympic Peninsula of Washington State. The goals of OLYMPEX were to provide physical and hydrologic ground validation for the U.S./Japan Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite mission and, more specifically, to study how precipitation in Pacific frontal systems is modified by passage over coastal mountains. Four transportable scanning dual-polarization Doppler radars of various wavelengths were installed. Surface stations were placed at various altitudes to measure precipitation rates, particle size distributions, and fall velocities. Autonomous recording cameras monitored and recorded snow accumulation. Four researchmore » aircraft supplied by NASA investigated precipitation processes and snow cover, and supplemental rawinsondes and dropsondes were deployed during precipitation events. Numerous Pacific frontal systems were sampled, including several reaching "atmospheric river" status, warm and cold frontal systems, and postfrontal convection« less

Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index for Zagreb-Gric Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandzic, Kreso

2014-05-01

Conventional Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) and recent Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are compared for Zagreb-Gric weather station. Historical time series of PDSI and SPI are compared. For that purpose monthly precipitation, air temperature and air humidity data for Zagreb-Gric Observatory and period 1862-2010 are used. The results indicate that SPI is simpler for interpretation than PDI. On the other side, lack of temperature within SPI, make impossible use of it on climate change applications. Further development of both indices is required. Possible applications of them in irrigation scheduling system is considered as well for drought risk assessment. In addition, a comparison of PDSI and SPI for the periods from 1 to 24 months indicate the best agreement between PDSI and SPI for the periods from 6 to 12 months.

Evaluation of the effects of precipitation on ground-water levels from wells in selected alluvial aquifers in Utah and Arizona, 1936-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, Philip M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

2009-01-01

Increased withdrawals from alluvial aquifers of the southwestern United States during the last half-century have intensified the effects of drought on ground-water levels in valleys where withdrawal for irrigation is greatest. Furthermore, during wet periods, reduced withdrawals coupled with increased natural recharge cause rising ground-water levels. In order to manage water resources more effectively, analysis of ground-water levels under the influence of natural and anthropogenic stresses is useful. This report evaluates the effects of precipitation patterns on ground-water levels in areas of Utah and Arizona that have experienced different amounts of ground-water withdrawal. This includes a comparison of water-level records from basins that are hydrogeologically and climatologically similar but have contrasting levels of ground-water development. Hydrologic data, including records of ground-water levels, basin-wide annual ground-water withdrawals, and precipitation were examined from two basins in Utah (Milford and central Sevier) and three in Arizona (Aravaipa Canyon, Willcox, and Douglas). Most water-level records examined in this study from basins experiencing substantial ground-water development (Milford, Douglas, and Willcox) showed strong trends of declining water levels. Other water-level records, generally from the less-developed basins (central Sevier and Aravaipa Canyon) exhibited trends of increasing water levels. These trends are likely the result of accumulating infiltration of unconsumed irrigation water. Water-level records that had significant trends were detrended by subtraction of a low-order polynomial in an attempt to eliminate the variation in the water-level records that resulted from ground-water withdrawal or the application of water for irrigation. After detrending, water-level residuals were correlated with 2- to 10-year moving averages of annual precipitation from representative stations for the individual basins. The water-level residual time series for each well was matched with the 2- to 10-year moving average of annual precipitation with which it was best correlated and the results were compared across basins and hydrologic settings. Analysis of water-level residuals and moving averages of annual precipitation indicate that ground-water levels in the Utah basins respond more slowly to precipitation patterns than those from the Arizona basins. This is attributed to the dominant mechanism of recharge that most directly influences the respective valley aquifers. Substantial recharge in the Utah basins likely originates as infiltrating snowmelt in the mountain block far from the valley aquifer, whereas mountain-front recharge and streambed infiltration of runoff are the dominant recharge mechanisms operating in the Arizona basins. It was determined that the fraction of water-level variation caused by local precipitation patterns becomes more difficult to resolve with increasing effects of ground-water pumping, especially from incomplete records. As the demand for ground water increases in the southwestern United States, long-term records of ground-water levels have the potential to provide valuable information about the precipitation-driven variation in water levels, which has implications to water management related to water availability.

Atmospheric circulation leading to record breaking precipitation and floods in southern Iberia in December 1876

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, R. M.; Varino, F.; Vaquero, J.; Valente, M. A.

2012-04-01

The first week of December 1876 was marked by extreme weather conditions that affected the south-western sector of the Iberian Peninsula (IP), leading to an all-time record flow in both large international rivers running from Spain to Portugal, Tagus and Guadiana. As a direct consequence, several towns in centre and south IP suffered serious flood damage. These catastrophic floods were amplified by the occurrence of anomalously wet October and November months, as shown by recently digitised time series for both IP countries. These events resulted from the continuous pouring of precipitation registered between 29 November and 7 December, due to the consecutive Atlantic low-pressure systems and their associated frontal systems that reached the Iberian Peninsula. Using several different data sources, such as historical newspapers of that time, meteorological data recently digitised from several stations in Portugal and Spain and the recently available 20th Century Reanalysis (Compo et al., 2011), we were able (135 years afterwards), to study in detail the damage and the atmospheric circulation conditions associated with this event. The synoptic conditions were represented by 6 hourly fields of complementary variables, namely; 1) precipitation rate and mean sea level pressure (SLP); 2) precipitation rate and CAPE; 3) wind speed intensity and divergence at 250 hPa, 4) wind speed intensity and divergence also at 850 hPa; 5) air temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential height at 500 hPa; 6) wind speed barbs and specific moisture content at 850 hPa. Movies with all these variables were obtained for the 10-day sequence that spans between 29 November and 7 December. For two recently digitised stations in Portugal (Lisbon and Évora), the values of precipitation registered during those weeks were so remarkable that when we computed daily accumulated precipitation successively from 1 to 10 days, the episode of 1876 always stood as the maximum precipitation event, with the exception of events in February 2008 in the Lisbon precipitation (Fragoso et al., 2010) and October 1944 in Évora (in both cases for daily precipitation only). Compo G. P., Whitaker J.S., Sardeshmukh P.D., Matsui N., Allan R.J., Yin X., Gleason E., J.r., Vose R. S., Rutledge G., Bessemoulin P., Brönnimann S., Brunet M., Crouthamel R.I., Grant A.N., Groisman P. Y., Jones P. D., Kruk M. C., Kruger A.C., Marshall G. J., Maugeri M., Mok H. Y., Nordlki, Ross T.F., Trigo R. M., Wang X. L., Woodruff S. D., Worley S. J. (2011). The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137(654), 1-28. doi:10.1002/qj.776 Fragoso, M., Trigo, R. M., Zêzere, J. L., & Valente, M. A. (2010). The exceptional rainfall event in Lisbon on 18 February 2008. Weather, 65(2), 31-35. doi:10.1002/wea.513

Forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining below specified low thresholds in the conterminous U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dickinson, Jesse

2017-01-01

We present a logistic regression approach for forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining or maintaining below specific groundwater-level thresholds. We tested our approach on 102 groundwater wells in different climatic regions and aquifers of the United States that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network. We evaluated the importance of current groundwater levels, precipitation, streamflow, seasonal variability, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and atmosphere/ocean indices for developing the logistic regression equations. Several diagnostics of model fit were used to evaluate the regression equations, including testing of autocorrelation of residuals, goodness-of-fit metrics, and bootstrap validation testing. The probabilistic predictions were most successful at wells with high persistence (low month-to-month variability) in their groundwater records and at wells where the groundwater level remained below the defined low threshold for sustained periods (generally three months or longer). The model fit was weakest at wells with strong seasonal variability in levels and with shorter duration low-threshold events. We identified challenges in deriving probabilistic-forecasting models and possible approaches for addressing those challenges.

Evaluation of TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) against terrestrial measurement over a humid sub-tropical basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Dheeraj; Gautam, Amar Kant; Palmate, Santosh S.; Pandey, Ashish; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Rathore, Neha; Sharma, Nayan

2017-08-01

To support the GPM mission which is homologous to its predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), this study has been undertaken to evaluate the accuracy of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) daily-accumulated precipitation products for 5 years (2008-2012) using the statistical methods and contingency table method. The analysis was performed on daily, monthly, seasonal and yearly basis. The TMPA precipitation estimates were also evaluated for each grid point i.e. 0.25° × 0.25° and for 18 rain gauge stations of the Betwa River basin, India. Results indicated that TMPA precipitation overestimates the daily and monthly precipitation in general, particularly for the middle sub-basin in the non-monsoon season. Furthermore, precision of TMPA precipitation estimates declines with the decrease of altitude at both grid and sub-basin scale. The study also revealed that TMPA precipitation estimates provide better accuracy in the upstream of the basin compared to downstream basin. Nevertheless, the detection capability of daily TMPA precipitation improves with increase in altitude for drizzle rain events. However, the detection capability decreases during non-monsoon and monsoon seasons when capturing moderate and heavy rain events, respectively. The veracity of TMPA precipitation estimates was improved during the rainy season than during the dry season at all scenarios investigated. The analyses suggest that there is a need for better precipitation estimation algorithm and extensive accuracy verification against terrestrial precipitation measurement to capture the different types of rain events more reliably over the sub-humid tropical regions of India.

Can oxygen stable isotopes be used to track precipitation moisture source in vascular plant-dominated peatlands?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amesbury, Matthew J.; Charman, Dan J.; Newnham, Rewi M.; Loader, Neil J.; Goodrich, Jordan; Royles, Jessica; Campbell, David I.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Roland, Thomas P.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.

2015-11-01

Variations in the isotopic composition of precipitation are determined by fractionation processes which occur during temperature- and humidity-dependent phase changes associated with evaporation and condensation. Oxygen stable isotope ratios have therefore been frequently used as a source of palaeoclimate data from a variety of proxy archives, which integrate this signal over time. Applications from ombrotrophic peatlands, where the source water used in cellulose synthesis is derived solely from precipitation, have been mostly limited to Northern Hemisphere Sphagnum-dominated bogs, with few in the Southern Hemisphere or in peatlands dominated by vascular plants. New Zealand (NZ) provides an ideal location to undertake empirical research into oxygen isotope fractionation in vascular peatlands because single taxon analysis can be easily carried out, in particular using the preserved root matrix of the restionaceous wire rush (Empodisma spp.) that forms deep Holocene peat deposits throughout the country. Furthermore, large gradients are observed in the mean isotopic composition of precipitation across NZ, caused primarily by the relative influence of different climate modes. Here, we test whether δ18O of Empodisma α-cellulose from ombrotrophic restiad peatlands in NZ can provide a methodology for developing palaeoclimate records of past precipitation δ18O. Surface plant, water and precipitation samples were taken over spatial (six sites spanning >10° latitude) and temporal (monthly measurements over one year) gradients. A link between the isotopic composition of root-associated water, the most likely source water for plant growth, and precipitation in both datasets was found. Back-trajectory modelling of precipitation moisture source for rain days prior to sampling showed clear seasonality in the temporal data that was reflected in root-associated water. The link between source water and plant cellulose was less clear, although mechanistic modelling predicted mean cellulose values within published error margins for both datasets. Improved physiological understanding and modelling of δ18O in restiad peatlands should enable use of this approach as a new source of palaeoclimate data to reconstruct changes in past atmospheric circulation.

To Grid or Not to Grid… Precipitation Data and Hydrological Modeling in the Khangai Mountain Region of Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venable, N. B. H.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Adyabadam, G.

2014-12-01

Precipitation data in semi-arid and mountainous regions is often spatially and temporally sparse, yet it is a key variable needed to drive hydrological models. Gridded precipitation datasets provide a spatially and temporally coherent alternative to the use of point-based station data, but in the case of Mongolia, may not be constructed from all data available from government data sources, or may only be available at coarse resolutions. To examine the uncertainty associated with the use of gridded and/or point precipitation data, monthly water balance models of three river basins across forest steppe (the Khoid Tamir River at Ikhtamir), steppe (the Baidrag River at Bayanburd), and desert steppe (the Tuin River at Bogd) ecozones in the Khangai Mountain Region of Mongolia were compared. The models were forced over a 10-year period from 2001-2010, with gridded temperature and precipitation data at a 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution. These results were compared to modeling using an interpolated hybrid of the gridded data and additional point data recently gathered from government sources; and with point data from the nearest meteorological station to the streamflow gage of choice. Goodness-of-fit measures including the Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency statistic, the percent bias, and the RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio were used to assess model performance. The results were mixed with smaller differences between the two gridded products as compared to the differences between gridded products and station data. The largest differences in precipitation inputs and modeled runoff amounts occurred between the two gridded datasets and station data in the desert steppe (Tuin), and the smallest differences occurred in the forest steppe (Khoid Tamir) and steppe (Baidrag). Mean differences between water balance model results are generally smaller than mean differences in the initial input data over the period of record. Seasonally, larger differences in gridded versus station-based precipitation products and modeled outputs occur in summer in the desert-steppe, and in spring in the forest steppe. Choice of precipitation data source in terms of gridded or point-based data directly affects model outcomes with greater uncertainty noted on a seasonal basis across ecozones of the Khangai.

Evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon eastern branch and terrestrial vegetation since the Last Glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras-Rosales, Astrid; Jennerjahn, Tim; Tharammal, Thejna; Lückge, Andreas; Meyer, Vera; Paul, André; Schefuß, Enno

2014-05-01

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is one of the major climatic phenomena on the planet and supports the living of over a billion people. Thus, understanding its natural driving forces and ecological consequences are a matter of first importance. We provide a continuous record of the ISM precipitation and continental vegetation over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna lower catchment and the Indo-Burman ranges for the last 18,000 years (18 ka), based on terrestrial biomarkers of a sediment core from the northern Bay of Bengal (NBoB). Compound-specific stable isotope analysis of hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) on plant wax-derived n-alkanes was conducted to reconstruct changes in precipitation and vegetation composition, respectively. The results are compared to results from an isotope-enabled general atmospheric circulation model (IsoCAM) for selected time-slices (pre-industrial, mid-Holocene and Heinrich Stadial 1 [HS1]). Our findings indicate that changes in the δD of precipitation and plant waxes around the NBoB were mainly driven by the amount effect, and strongly influenced by summer monsoon precipitation. Model results also support the hypothesis of a constant moisture source (i.e. the NBoB) throughout the study period. Qualitative precipitation changes inferred from our alkane δD record suggest that, overall, the Holocene (last 10 ka) was moister than the late glacial (18-10 ka BP). Precipitation was strongest during the early Holocene (8.6-8.4 ka BP), whereas the most arid conditions were recorded during the HS1 (16.9-15.4 ka BP). These changes are comparable in timing and magnitude to those detected in other ISM records from central and western Asia [1, 2, 3, 4], suggesting simultaneous variability of the western (Arabian Sea) and eastern (Bay of Bengal) ISM branches. Downcore n-alkane δD anomalies were used to evaluate past changes in the precipitation isotopic signature and the observed anomalies were similar to those obtained from the IsoCAM model. Quantitative estimations of summer precipitation amount by the IsoCAM model predict, relative to the pre-industrial period, 20% more rain during the mid-Holocene and 20% less during HS1, respectively. Vegetation changes deduced from the n-alkane δ13C record indicate a shift from C4-plant dominated ecosystems during the Late Glacial to mixed C3/C4-plant vegetation during the Holocene. Comparison of the δD and δ13C records suggests that vegetation composition is strongly linked to precipitation variability. References Berkelhammer et al. 2013, Geoph. Monog Series. Fleitmann et al. 2007, Quaternary Sci. Rev.; Quaternary Sci. Rev. Shakun et al. 2007, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. Sinha et al. 2005, Geology.

Extreme Monsoon Rainfall Signatures Preserved in the Invasive Terrestrial Gastropod Lissachatina fulica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Prosenjit; Rangarajan, Ravi; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Naggs, Fred

2017-11-01

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall lasts for a period of 4 months with large variations recorded in terms of rainfall intensity during its period between June and September. Proxy reconstructions of past ISM rainfall variability are required due to the paucity of long instrumental records. However, reconstructing subseasonal rainfall is extremely difficult using conventional hydroclimate proxies due to inadequate sample resolution. Here, we demonstrate the utility of the stable oxygen isotope composition of gastropod shells in reconstructing past rainfall on subseasonal timescales. We present a comparative isotopic study on present day rainwater and stable isotope ratios of precipitate found in the incremental growth bands of giant African land snail Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich) from modern day (2009) and in the historical past (1918). Isotopic signatures present in the growth bands allowed for the identification of ISM rainfall variability in terms of its active and dry spells in the modern as well as past gastropod record. Our results demonstrate the utility of gastropod growth band stable isotope ratios in semiquantitative reconstructions of seasonal rainfall patterns. High resolution climate records extracted from gastropod growth band stable isotopes (museum and archived specimens) can expand the scope for understanding past subseasonal-to-seasonal climate variability.

Summary and statistical analysis of precipitation and groundwater data for Brunswick County, North Carolina, Water Year 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

McSwain, Kristen Bukowski; Strickland, A.G.

2010-01-01

Groundwater conditions in Brunswick County, North Carolina, have been monitored continuously since 2000 through the operation and maintenance of groundwater-level observation wells in the surficial, Castle Hayne, and Peedee aquifers of the North Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system. Groundwater-resource conditions for the Brunswick County area were evaluated by relating the normal range (25th to 75th percentile) monthly mean groundwater-level and precipitation data for water years 2001 to 2008 to median monthly mean groundwater levels and monthly sum of daily precipitation for water year 2008. Summaries of precipitation and groundwater conditions for the Brunswick County area and hydrographs and statistics of continuous groundwater levels collected during the 2008 water year are presented in this report. Groundwater levels varied by aquifer and geographic location within Brunswick County, but were influenced by drought conditions and groundwater withdrawals. Water levels were normal in two of the eight observation wells and below normal in the remaining six wells. Seasonal Kendall trend analysis performed on more than 9 years of monthly mean groundwater-level data collected in an observation well located within the Brunswick County well field indicated there is a strong downward trend, with water levels declining at a rate of about 2.2 feet per year.

Developing GIOVANNI-based Online Prototypes to Intercompare TRMM-Related Global Gridded-Precipitation Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Teng, William; Kempler, Steven; Milich, Lenard

2014-01-01

New online prototypes have been developed to extend and enhance the previous effort by facilitating investigation of product characteristics and intercomparison of precipitation products in different algorithms as well as in different versions at different spatial scales ranging from local to global without downloading data and software. Several popular Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products and the TRMM Composite Climatology are included. In addition, users can download customized data in several popular formats for further analysis. Examples show product quality problems and differences in several monthly precipitation products. It is seen that differences in daily and monthly precipitation products are distributed unevenly in space and it is necessary to have tools such as those presented here for customized and detailed investigations. A simple time series and two area maps allow the discovery of abnormal values of 3A25 in one of the months. An example shows a V-shaped valley issue in the Version 6 3B43 time series and another example shows a sudden drop in 3A25 monthly rain rate, all of which provide important information when the products are used for long-term trend studies. Future plans include adding more products and statistical functionality in the prototypes.

The analysis of distribution of meteorological over China in astronomical site selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Cai-yun; Weng, Ning-quan

2014-02-01

The distribution of parameters such as sunshine hours, precipitation, and visibility were obtained by analyzing the meteorological data in 906 stations of China during 1981~2012. And the month and annual variations of the parameters in some typical stations were discussed. The results show that: (1) the distribution of clear days is similar to that of sunshine hours, the values of which decrease from north to south and from west to east. The distributions of cloud, precipitation and vapor pressure are opposite. (2) The northwest areas in China have the characteristic such as low precipitation and vapor pressure, small cloud clever, and good visibility, which are the general conditions of astronomical site selection. (3) The parameters have obvious month variation. There are large precipitation, long sunshine hours and strong radiation in the mid months of one year, which are opposite in beginning and ending of one year. (4) In the selected stations, the value of vapor pressure decreases year by year, and the optical depth is similar or invariable. All the above results provided for astronomical site selection.

What do Westerly Wind Reconstructions from Fiordland, New Zealand, say about Southern Hemisphere Paleoclimatic Mechanisms?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudson, K. P.; Hendy, I. L.; Neil, H.

2010-12-01

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SWW) have a major influence over deep ocean ventilation around Antarctica and are modulated by inter-annual and decadal climate variability, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Fiordland, New Zealand (44.5-46.5°S), is optimally located for reconstructing the SWW, since the fjord sediments record changes in precipitation dependent on the strength and position of the SWW. Here we present a multi-proxy precipitation reconstruction from three New Zealand fjords, demonstrating SWW variability during the late-Holocene, and compare our results to other climate records from New Zealand, Patagonia, and Antarctica. Our fjord sediment analysis uses bulk sediment δ13C and organic C/N ratios to determine the relative contributions of terrestrial organic matter (TOM) versus marine suspended organic matter (SPOM), indicative of terrestrial runoff due to precipitation. Our data indicate dry conditions in Fiordland at 1500-1100 and 750-150 yr B.P., with a reversal at 400 years B.P., and wet conditions at 2300-1600 and 1100-750 yr B.P., with short reversals around 1900 and 900 yr B.P. Our precipitation reconstruction linked to SWW variability provides significant implications for interpreting other Southern Hemisphere climate records and better understanding Pacific basin-wide SWW behavior. Locally, wet periods are likely associated with intervals of increased westerly flow over Fiordland, such as -SAM, El Niño, and/or +IPO, while dry periods may be associated with +SAM, La Niña, and/or -IPO. Comparison of our New Zealand record with Patagonian precipitation records shows differences, which may be attributed to regional variations of the expression of SAM, ENSO, and IPO. In contrast, Fiordland precipitation records appear to correlate to West Antarctic ice cores suggesting a linkage via SAM. Finally, Fiordland precipitation may be modulated by the position of the Subtropical Convergence Zone (STCZ) in the Tasman Sea, which has control over the moisture sources within the SWW path. Therefore, wet periods in Fiordland may be amplified by a southern position of the STCZ that caused the SWW to encounter a warm moisture source before reaching Fiordland.

Influences of Local Sea-Surface Temperatures and Large-scale Dynamics on Monthly Precipitation Inferred from Two 10-year GCM-Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.; Zhou, Y.; Lau, W. K.-M.

2007-01-01

Two parallel sets of 10-year long: January 1, 1982 to December 31, 1991, simulations were made with the finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) in which the model integrations were forced with prescribed sea-surface temperature fields (SSTs) available as two separate SST-datasets. One dataset contained naturally varying monthly SSTs for the chosen period, and the oth& had the 12-monthly mean SSTs for the same period. Plots of evaporation, precipitation, and atmosphere-column moisture convergence, binned by l C SST intervals show that except for the tropics, the precipitation is more strongly constrained by large-scale dynamics as opposed to local SST. Binning data by SST naturally provided an ensemble average of data contributed from disparate locations with same SST; such averages could be expected to mitigate all location related influences. However, the plots revealed: i) evaporation, vertical velocity, and precipitation are very robust and remarkably similar for each of the two simulations and even for the data from 1987-ENSO-year simulation; ii) while the evaporation increased monotonically with SST up to about 27 C, the precipitation did not; iii) precipitation correlated much better with the column vertical velocity as opposed to SST suggesting that the influence of dynamical circulation including non-local SSTs is stronger than local-SSTs. The precipitation fields were doubly binned with respect to SST and boundary-layer mass and/or moisture convergence. The analysis discerned the rate of change of precipitation with local SST as a sum of partial derivative of precipitation with local SST plus partial derivative of precipitation with boundary layer moisture convergence multiplied by the rate of change of boundary-layer moisture convergence with SST (see Eqn. 3 of Section 4.5). This analysis is mathematically rigorous as well as provides a quantitative measure of the influence of local SST on the local precipitation. The results were recast to examine the dependence of local rainfall on local SSTs; it was discernible only in the tropics. Our methodology can be used for computing relationship between any forcing function and its effect(s) on a chosen field.

South American Monsoon precipitation trends from 1948-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araujo, L. R.; De Mattos, J. Z.; Goncalves, L.

2013-05-01

In South America the monsoon system affects the Amazon region extending to the center of the South American continent to the northeast and southeast coastal strip. The characteristic South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is not classical, as in East Asia and India. The SAMS do not show a typical seasonal reversal in wind circulation regime, however indicates aspect of monsoon climate, as well as the seasonal cycle of rainfall over much of the continent, this is, a period of intense rain in summer and winter extremely dry. Despite the precipitation rate in the region of the SAMS being lower than other monsoon areas of the globe, it has a great influency in the major human and economical activities in that continent what motivetis the goal of this work which is to study the trend of rainfall over South America during the monsoon season in South America. For this study Climate Research Unit (CRU) precipitation data was used for the period between 1948 and 2006 during the months from November to March. The spatial resolution of the data is 1 degree and 3 hours temporal resolution. Preliminary results show that there was a pattern of positive trend in precipitation for the months of January, February, March, months in the seasonal cycle of precipitation SAMS.

Correlation between total precipitable water and precipitation over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keum, Wangho; Lim, Gyu-Ho

2017-04-01

The precipitation rate(PR) and the total precipitable water(TPW) interact with various physical mechanisms. The correlation of two variables changes with difference of domain resolution and characteristics of the region. This poster analyzes the correlation between PR and TPW over East Asia using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function(CSEOF) which is one of the PCA analysis. The CSEOF is useful to search a periodic pattern of the data. The anomalies which is subtracted climatological mean from the original data are used to represent annual cycles. Two variances of ERA-Interim Monthly Total Column Water vapor and GPCP monthly precipitation amounts with 372 time since January, 1984 to December, 2014 are decomposed into several modes separately. The first mode which explain largest variance are used in analysis. PC of both PR and TPW increase recently on mean value and amplitude, and they show considerable correlation on phase. The correlation coefficient of PR and TPW is 0.61 and maintains the same values by month. The result of harmonic analysis shows 2 to 6 year oscillations. As result of decomposed modes of two variables, there is the relationship between TPW PC series and horizontal moisture gradient. The Horizontal moist gradient can change affect moisture flux convergence which is one of important variable of rainfall events.

Lone-actor Terrorism and Impulsivity.

PubMed

Meloy, J Reid; Pollard, Jeffrey W

2017-11-01

In some recent cases of lone-actor terrorism, there is evidence the subject acted impulsively, often in response to a triggering event which contained a loss and humiliation. Evidence suggests the subjects acted precipitously, despite planning and preparation carried out in the preceding weeks or months, and their attacks failed to include the often considerable preparation that had been done. The pathway became a runway. The authors recommend the traditional assessment of impulsivity in persons of concern for lone acts of terrorism, as well as other proximal warning behaviors for targeted violence. Both indirect and direct assessment guidelines are proposed, with an emphasis upon self-report, psychological testing, collateral data gathering, and historical records. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

James Madison and a Shift in Precipitation Seasonality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druckenbrod, D. L.; Mann, M. E.; Stahle, D. W.; Cleaveland, M. K.; Therrell, M. D.; Shugart, H. H.

2001-12-01

An eighteen-year meteorological diary and tree ring data from James Madison's Montpelier plantation provide a consistent reconstruction of early summer and prior fall rainfall for the 18th Century Virginia piedmont. The Madison meteorological diary suggests a seasonal shift in monthly rainfall towards an earlier wet season relative to 20th Century norms. Furthermore, dendroclimatic reconstructions of early summer and prior fall rainfall reflect this shift in the seasonality of summer rainfall. The most pronounced early summer drought during the Madison diary period is presented as a case study. This 1792 drought occurs during one of the strongest El Niño events on record and is highlighted in the correspondence of James Madison.

The CM SAF ATOVS data record: overview of methodology and evaluation of total column water and profiles of tropospheric humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courcoux, N.; Schröder, M.

2015-12-01

Recently, the reprocessed Advanced Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) tropospheric water vapour and temperature data record was released by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM~SAF). ATOVS observations from infrared and microwave sounders onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA)-15-19 satellites and EUMETSAT's Meteorological Operational (Metop-A) satellite have been consistently reprocessed to generate 13 years (1999-2011) of global water vapour and temperature daily and monthly means with a spatial resolution of 90 km × 90 km. The data set is referenced under the following digital object identifier (DOI): doi:10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/WVT_ATOVS/V001. After preprocessing, a maximum likelihood solution scheme was applied to the observations to simultaneously infer temperature and water vapour profiles. In a post-processing step, an objective interpolation method (Kriging) was applied to allow for gap filling. The product suite includes total precipitable water vapour (TPW), layer-integrated precipitable water vapour (LPW) and layer mean temperature for five tropospheric layers between the surface and 200 hPa, as well as specific humidity and temperature at six tropospheric levels between 1000 and 200 hPa. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the ATOVS record (1998-now) has been consistently reprocessed (1999-2011) to retrieve water vapour. TPW and LPW products were compared to corresponding products from the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Upper-Air Network (GUAN) radiosonde observations and from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 satellite data record. TPW shows a good agreement with the GUAN radiosonde data: average bias and root mean square error (RMSE) are -0.2 and 3.3 kg m-2, respectively. For LPW, the maximum absolute (relative) bias and RMSE values decrease (increase) strongly with height. The maximum bias and RMSE are found at the lowest layer and are -0.7 and 2.5 kg m-2, respectively. While the RMSE relative to AIRS is generally smaller, the TPW bias relative to AIRS is larger, with dominant contributions from precipitating areas. The consistently reprocessed ATOVS data record exhibits improved quality and stability relative to the operational CM SAF products when compared to the TPW from GUAN radiosonde data over the period 2004-2011. Finally, it became evident that the change in the number of satellites used for the retrieval combined with the use of the Kriging leads to breakpoints in the ATOVS data record; therefore, a variability analysis of the data record is not recommended for the time period from January 1999 to January 2001.

High-Resolution Subtropical Summer Precipitation Derived from Dynamical Downscaling of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis: How Much Small-Scale Information Is Added by a Regional Model?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Stefanova, Lydia B.; Chan, Steven C.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; OBrien, James J.

2010-01-01

This study assesses the regional-scale summer precipitation produced by the dynamical downscaling of analyzed large-scale fields. The main goal of this study is to investigate how much the regional model adds smaller scale precipitation information that the large-scale fields do not resolve. The modeling region for this study covers the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) where the summer climate is subtropical in nature, with a heavy influence of regional-scale convection. The coarse resolution (2.5deg latitude/longitude) large-scale atmospheric variables from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/DOE reanalysis (R2) are downscaled using the NCEP Environmental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM) to produce precipitation at 20 km resolution for 16 summer seasons (19902005). The RSM produces realistic details in the regional summer precipitation at 20 km resolution. Compared to R2, the RSM-produced monthly precipitation shows better agreement with observations. There is a reduced wet bias and a more realistic spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology compared with the interpolated R2 values. The root mean square errors of the monthly R2 precipitation are reduced over 93 (1,697) of all the grid points in the five states (1,821). The temporal correlation also improves over 92 (1,675) of all grid points such that the domain-averaged correlation increases from 0.38 (R2) to 0.55 (RSM). The RSM accurately reproduces the first two observed eigenmodes, compared with the R2 product for which the second mode is not properly reproduced. The spatial patterns for wet versus dry summer years are also successfully simulated in RSM. For shorter time scales, the RSM resolves heavy rainfall events and their frequency better than R2. Correlation and categorical classification (above/near/below average) for the monthly frequency of heavy precipitation days is also significantly improved by the RSM.

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-01-01

Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

An assessment of the stationarity of climate and stream flow in watersheds of the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Kevin W.; Ellis, Andrew W.

2014-02-01

Several studies drawing upon general circulation models have investigated the potential impacts of future climate change on precipitation and runoff to stream flow in the southwest United States, suggesting reduced runoff in response to increasing temperatures and less precipitation. With the hydroclimatic changes considered to be underway, water management professionals have been counseled to abandon historical assumptions of stationarity in the natural systems governing surface water replenishments. Stationarity is predicated upon an assumption that the generating process is in equilibrium around an underlying mean and that variance remains constant over time. The implications of a more arid future are significant for surface water resources in the semi-arid Colorado River Basin (CRB). To examine the evidence of forthcoming change, eight sub-basins were identified for this study having unregulated runoff to stream flow gages, providing a 22% spatial sampling of the CRB. Their long-term record of surface temperature and precipitation along with corresponding gage records were evaluated with time series analysis methods and testing criteria established per statistical definitions of stationarity. Statistically significant temperature increases in all sub-basins were found, with persistently non-stationary time series in the recent record relative to the earlier historical record. However, tests of precipitation and runoff did not reveal persistent reductions, indicating that they remain stationary processes. Their transitions through periods of drought and excess have been characterized, with precipitation and stream flows found to be currently close to their long-term average. The evidence also indicates that resolving precipitation and runoff trends amidst natural modes of variability will be challenging and unlikely within the next several decades. Abandonment of stationarity assumptions for the CRB is not necessarily supported by the evidence, making it premature to discard its historical record as an instrument by which to assess sustainability of water resource systems.

A sedimentary record of middle Holocene precipitation and terrestrial vertebrates from Great Cistern Blue Hole (Abaco Island), The Bahamas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, R.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Winkler, T. S.; Donnelly, J. P.; Albury, N. A.; Steadman, D. W.

2016-12-01

Sinkholes and blueholes provide sheltered basins on carbonate landscapes for sediments and fossils to accumulate and remain protected from reworking by coastal processes. These sedimentary archives can span hundreds to thousands of years and may contain detailed records of environmental change and landscape evolution. Great Cistern Blue Hole on Great Abaco Island in the northern Bahamas provides such an archive. Today situated a few meters above sea level in the coastal zone, Great Cistern was likely located further inland prior to a geometric change to the local coastline and during lower sea-level. To explore the long-term record of environmental change in this region, sediment cores were collected between 2014 and 2015 that yielded an 8,000-year record of continuous sedimentation. Visual inspection of the core revealed multiple intervals dominated by coarse-grained sediment that subsequent microscopic examination identified as fragments of calcite rafts. Calcite rafts (common in caves) precipitate at an air-groundwater interface in quiescent environments from the offgassing of calcium carbonate saturated groundwater. The recurrent precipitation of calcite rafts in a sinkhole potentially reflects intervals of increased discharge of the local coastal aquifer in response to increased precipitation. The onset, peak, and decline of the calcite raft deposits are consistent with other precipitation proxy records from the Caribbean region, suggesting that the deposition is providing direct evidence for middle Holocene precipitation patterns in the northern Bahamas. In addition, numerous vertebrate bones have accumulated in Great Cistern including those of a Bahamian Boa (age: 7ka yBP), a species of crocodile no longer present on Abaco Island (age: 2ka yBP), and pre-European contact human remains (age: 600 yBP). As the project continues, other bones will be identified that may serve to enhance our knowledge of human and animal activity on the island.

Estimating annual high-flow statistics and monthly and seasonal low-flow statistics for ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Curran, Janet H.

2003-01-01

Methods for estimating daily mean flow-duration statistics for seven regions in Alaska and low-flow frequencies for one region, southeastern Alaska, were developed from daily mean discharges for streamflow-gaging stations in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. The 15-, 10-, 9-, 8-, 7-, 6-, 5-, 4-, 3-, 2-, and 1-percent duration flows were computed for the October-through-September water year for 222 stations in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. The 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent duration flows were computed for the individual months of July, August, and September for 226 stations in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. The 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent duration flows were computed for the season July-through-September for 65 stations in southeastern Alaska. The 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low-flow frequencies for the season July-through-September were computed for 65 stations for most of southeastern Alaska. Low-flow analyses were limited to particular months or seasons in order to omit winter low flows, when ice effects reduce the quality of the records and validity of statistical assumptions. Regression equations for estimating the selected high-flow and low-flow statistics for the selected months and seasons for ungaged sites were developed from an ordinary-least-squares regression model using basin characteristics as independent variables. Drainage area and precipitation were significant explanatory variables for high flows, and drainage area, precipitation, mean basin elevation, and area of glaciers were significant explanatory variables for low flows. The estimating equations can be used at ungaged sites in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada where streamflow regulation, streamflow diversion, urbanization, and natural damming and releasing of water do not affect the streamflow data for the given month or season. Standard errors of estimate ranged from 15 to 56 percent for high-duration flow statistics, 25 to greater than 500 percent for monthly low-duration flow statistics, 32 to 66 percent for seasonal low-duration flow statistics, and 53 to 64 percent for low-flow frequency statistics.

A 60,000-year record of hydrologic variability in the Central Andes from the hydrogen isotopic composition of leaf waxes in Lake Titicaca sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fornace, Kyrstin L.; Hughen, Konrad A.; Shanahan, Timothy M.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Baker, Paul A.; Sylva, Sean P.

2014-12-01

A record of the hydrogen isotopic composition of terrestrial leaf waxes (δDwax) in sediment cores from Lake Titicaca provides new insight into the precipitation history of the Central Andes and controls of South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) variability since the last glacial period. Comparison of the δDwax record with a 19-kyr δD record from the nearby Illimani ice core supports the interpretation that precipitation δD is the primary control on δDwax with a lesser but significant role for local evapotranspiration and other secondary influences on δDwax. The Titicaca δDwax record confirms overall wetter conditions in the Central Andes during the last glacial period relative to a drier Holocene. During the last deglaciation, abrupt δDwax shifts correspond to millennial-scale events observed in the high-latitude North Atlantic, with dry conditions corresponding to the Bølling-Allerød and early Holocene periods and wetter conditions during late glacial and Younger Dryas intervals. We observe a trend of increasing monsoonal precipitation from the early to the late Holocene, consistent with summer insolation forcing of the SASM, but similar hydrologic variability on precessional timescales is not apparent during the last glacial period. Overall, this study demonstrates the relative importance of high-latitude versus tropical forcing as a dominant control on glacial SASM precipitation variability.

Precipitation diagnostics of an exceptionally dry event in São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, Caio A. S.; Cardoso, Denis H. F.; Firpo, Mári A. F.

2016-08-01

The State of São Paulo in Brazil experienced in 2014 and early 2015 an expressive precipitation deficit, leading to drought conditions with impacts in water availability for public consumption, hydropower generation, and agriculture, particularly during austral summer. This study performs a detailed diagnostics of the observed precipitation during 2014 and early 2015 over a particular region of São Paulo State, which includes the massively populated metropolitan region of São Paulo. The diagnostic was designed to provide answers to a number of relevant questions for the activities, decisions, and strategic planning of several sectors (e.g., general public, media, and high-level governments). Examples of questions such diagnostics can help answer are: How much precipitation has the region received? Has the region experienced drought conditions in the past? When have similar drought conditions been observed in the past? What has been the observed precipitation pattern in the last years? How severe/rare were the 2014 and 2015 droughts? When does the rainy season typically start/end in the region? What happened during the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 rainy seasons? The performed diagnostics based on historical 1961/1962-2014/2015 records revealed that the 2013/2014 austral summer was a very rare event classified as exceptionally dry. Similar drought events were previously recorded but with smaller magnitude in terms of precipitation deficits, making the 2013/2014 drought event the driest on the examined record. In fact, the region has been experiencing a precipitation deficit pattern since 1999/2000. One of the contributing factors for the expressive precipitation deficit in 2014 was the abnormally early end of the 2013/2014 rainy season in the region.

Trends in precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration for rivers draining to the Gulf of Maine in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Thomas G.; Billmire, M.

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to result in increases in total annual precipitation in northeastern North America. The response of runoff to increases in precipitation is likely to be more complex because increasing evapotranspiration (ET) could counteract increasing precipitation. This study was conducted to examine these competing trends in the historical record for 22 rivers having >70 yr of runoff data. Annual (water year) average precipitation increased in all basins, with increases ranging from 0.9 to 3.12 mm yr−1. Runoff increased in all basins with increases ranging from 0.67 to 2.58 mm yr−1. The ET was calculated by using a water balance approach in which changes in terrestrial water storage were considered negligible. ET increased in 16 basins and decreased in 6 basins. Temporal trends in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and ET were also calculated for each basin over their respective periods of record for runoff and for the consistent period (1927–2011) for the area-weighted average of the nine largest non-nested basins. From 1927 through 2011, precipitation and runoff increased at average rates of 1.6 and 1.7 mm yr−1, respectively, and ET increased slightly at a rate of 0.18 mm yr−1. For the more recent period (1970–2011), there was a positive trend in ET of 1.9 mm yr−1. The lack of a more consistent increase in ET, compared with the increases in precipitation and runoff, for the full periods of record, was unexpected, but may be explained by various factors including decreasing wind speed, increasing cloudiness, decreasing vapor pressure deficit, and patterns of forest growth.

Steps toward a CONUS-wide reanalysis with archived NEXRAD data using National Mosaic and Multisensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (NMQ/Q2) algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, S. E.; Nelson, B. R.; Langston, C.; Qi, Y.

2012-12-01

The National Mosaic and Multisensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) software suite, developed at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, OK, addresses a large deficiency in the resolution of currently archived precipitation datasets. Current standards, both radar- and satellite-based, provide for nationwide precipitation data with a spatial resolution of up to 4-5 km, with a temporal resolution as fine as one hour. Efforts are ongoing to process archived NEXRAD data for the period of record (1996 - present), producing a continuous dataset providing precipitation data at a spatial resolution of 1 km, on a timescale of only five minutes. In addition, radar-derived precipitation data are adjusted hourly using a wide variety of automated gauge networks spanning the United States. Applications for such a product range widely, from emergency management and flash flood guidance, to hydrological studies and drought monitoring. Results are presented from a subset of the NEXRAD dataset, providing basic statistics on the distribution of rainrates, relative frequency of precipitation types, and several other variables which demonstrate the variety of output provided by the software. Precipitation data from select case studies are also presented to highlight the increased resolution provided by this reanalysis and the possibilities that arise from the availability of data on such fine scales. A previously completed pilot project and steps toward a nationwide implementation are presented along with proposed strategies for managing and processing such a large dataset. Reprocessing efforts span several institutions in both North Carolina and Oklahoma, and data/software coordination are key in producing a homogeneous record of precipitation to be archived alongside NOAA's other Climate Data Records. Methods are presented for utilizing supercomputing capability in expediting processing, to allow for the iterative nature of a reanalysis effort.

Systematic recover of long high-resolution rainfall time series recorded by pluviographs during the 20th century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delitala, Alessandro M. S.; Deidda, Roberto; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Piga, Enrico; Querzoli, Giorgio

2010-05-01

During most of the 20th century, precipitation has been continuously measured by means of the so-called "pluviographs", i.e. rain gauges including a mechanical apparatus for continuously recording the depth of water from precipitation on specific strip charts, usually on a weekly basis. The signal recorded on such strips was visually examined by trained personnel on a regular basis, in order to extract the daily precipitation totals and the maximum precipitation intensities over short periods (from a few minutes to hours). The rest of the high-resolution information contained in the signal was usually not extracted, except for specific cases. A systematic recovering of the entire information at high temporal resolution contained in these precipitation signals would provide a fundamental database to improve the characterization of historical rainfall climatology during the previous century. The Department of Land Engineering of the University of Cagliari has recently developed and tested an automatic software, based on image analysis techniques, which is able to acquire the scanned images of the pluviograph strip charts, to automatically digitise the signal and to produce a digital database of continuous precipitation records at the highest possible temporal resolution, i.e. 5 to 10 minutes. Along with that, a significant amount of daily precipitation totals from the late 19th and the 20th century, either elaborated from pluviograph strip charts or simply derived from bucket rain gauges, still exists in paper form, but it has never been digitalized. Within a project partly-funded by the Operational Programme of the European Union "Italia-Francia Marittimo", the Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Sardinia and the University of Cagliari will recover both the high-resolution rainfall signals and the older time series of daily totals recorded by a large number of pluviographs belonging to the historical monitoring networks of the island of Sardinia. Such data will then be used to construct the high-resolution climatology of precipitation over Sardinia, both assuming stationary climate and slowly varying climate. Specific attention will be devoted to a set of critical hydrological basins, often affected by intense precipitation and flash floods. All information will then be made available to researchers, regional officers, technicians (e.g. hydraulic engineers) and the greater public interested into such information. The present poster describes the general scope of the E.U. project and the specific activities in the field of climatology of Sardinia rainfall that will be conducted as well as the expected results. A section will be dedicated to show how the pluviograph strips are automatically digitized.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yi, Gaosong; Cullen, David A.; Littrell, Kenneth C.

For this research, long-term aged [343 K (70 °C) for 30 months and natural exposure for over 10 years] Al 5456 H116 samples were characterized using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), state-of-the-art energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) systems, and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS). ASTM G-67 mass loss tests of the sensitized Al 5456 alloy samples were conducted. Intragranular Mg-rich precipitates, such as Guinier–Preston (GP) zones, were confirmed in Al 5456 H116 aged at 343 K (70 °C) for 30 months, and the volume of these precipitates is 1.39 pct. β' phase is identified at the grain boundarymore » of a navy ship sample, while high-resolution STEM results reveal no intragranular precipitates. Intergranular corrosion (IGC) of Al 5456 was found to be related to the continuity of intergranular precipitates.« less

Spatially distinct effects of preceding precipitation on heat stress over eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Zhang, Xuejun; Groisman, Pavel; Sun, Siao; Lu, Hui; Li, Zhe

2017-11-01

In many terrestrial regions, higher than usual surface temperatures are associated with (or are even induced by) surface moisture deficits. When in the warm season temperatures become anomalously high, their extreme values affect human beings causing heat stress. Besides increased temperature, rising humidity may also have substantial implications for bodily thermal comfort. However, the effects of surface moisture on heat stress, when considering both temperature and humidity, are less known. In this study, the relationship between the number of hot days in July as indicated by the wet-bulb globe temperature and the preceding three months of precipitation was assessed over eastern China. It is found that the probability of occurrence of above the average number of hot days exceeds 0.7 after a preceding precipitation deficit in northeastern China, but is less than 0.3 in southeastern China. Generally, over eastern China, the precipitation in the preceding months is negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with specific humidity in July. The combined effects generate a spatially distinct pattern: precipitation deficits in preceding months enhance heat stress in northeastern China while in southern China these deficits are associated with reduction of heat stress. In the south, abundant preceding precipitation tends to increase atmospheric humidity that is instrumental for the increase of heat stress. These results contribute predictive information about the probability of mid-summer heat stress in eastern China a few weeks ahead of its occurrence.

Comparison and evaluation of satellite- and reanalysis-based precipitation products for water resources management in the Brahmaputra River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh Khan, Abu; Sohel Masud, Md.; Abdulla Hel Kafi, Md.; Sultana, Tashrifa; Lopez Lopez, Patricia

2017-04-01

The Brahmaputra River, with a transboundary basin area of approx. 554,500 km2, has its origin on the northern slope of the Himalayas in China, from where it flows through India, Bhutan and finally Bangladesh. Brahmaputra basin's climatology is heavily conditioned by precipitation during the monsoon months, concentrating about the 85 % of the rainfall in this period and originating severe and frequent floods that impact specially the Bangladeshi population in the delta region. Recent campaigns to increase the quality and to share ground-based hydro-meteorological data, in particular precipitation, within the basin have provided limited results. Global rainfall data from satellite and reanalysis may improve the temporal and spatial availability of in-situ observations for advanced water resources management. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of several global precipitation products from satellite and reanalysis in comparison with in-situ data to quantify their added value for hydrological modeling at a basin and sub-basin scale for the Brahmaputra River. Precipitation products from CMORPH, TRMM-3B42, GsMAP, WFDEI, MSWEP and various combinations with ground-based data were evaluated at basin and sub-basin level at a daily and monthly temporal resolution. The Brahmaputra was delineated into 54 sub-basins for a more detailed evaluation of the precipitation products. The data were analysed and inter-compared for the time period from 2002 to 2010. Precipitation performance assessment was conducted including several indicators, such as probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), bias and root mean square error (RMSE). Preliminary results indicate high correlation and low bias and RMSE values between WFDEI, TRMM-3B42 and CMORPH precipitation and in-situ observations at a monthly time scale. Lower correlations and higher bias and RMSE values were found between GsMAP and MSWEP and ground-observed precipitation. The best performance was achieved with TRMM-3B42 precipitation. Preliminary results also show that precipitation is better captured during monsoon season rather than in dry seasons with all the analysed precipitation products. Moreover, in the comparison at a sub-basin level, precipitation estimates are more accurate in those sub-basins located in the southern part of the Brahmaputra River basin. These results identify the added value of satellite-based and reanalysis derived precipitation products for improving available information and water resources management in the Brahmaputra River basin. Keywords: precipitation, earth observations, hydrological modeling, Brahmaputra River basin.

Approximating Long-Term Statistics Early in the Global Precipitation Measurement Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, Thomas; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.

2017-01-01

Long-term precipitation records are vital to many applications, especially the study of extreme events. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has served this need, but TRMMs successor mission, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), does not yet provide a long-term record. Quantile mapping, the conversion of values across paired empirical distributions, offers a simple, established means to approximate such long-term statistics, but only within appropriately defined domains. This method was applied to a case study in Central America, demonstrating that quantile mapping between TRMM and GPM data maintains the performance of a real-time landslide model. Use of quantile mapping could bring the benefits of the latest satellite-based precipitation dataset to existing user communities such as those for hazard assessment, crop forecasting, numerical weather prediction, and disease tracking.

An investigation of the role of winter and spring precipitation as drivers of streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters using tree-ring reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, S. E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Martin, J. T.; Pederson, G. T.

2017-12-01

The Missouri River supplies water to over 3 million basin residents and is a driving force for the nation's agricultural and energy sectors. However, with changing climate and declining snowpack in western North America, seasonal water yields are becoming less predictable, revealing a gap in our understanding of regional hydroclimate and drivers of streamflow within the basin. By analyzing the relationship between seasonal precipitation and streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters sub-basin, this study seeks to expand our knowledge based on the instrumental record alone. Here we present the first annually-resolved tree-ring reconstruction of spring precipitation for the Missouri River Headwaters. This reconstruction along with existing tree-ring reconstructions of April 1 snow-water equivalence (SWE) (Pederson et al. 2011) and natural streamflow (Martin, J.T. & Pederson, G.T., personal communication, June 2017) are used to test the feasibility of detecting a variable influence of winter and spring precipitation on streamflow over past centuries, and relative to the modern period. Initial analyses indicate that April 1 SWE is a significant control on streamflow, however, the April 1 SWE record does not fully account for anomalies observed in the streamflow record. This study therefore seeks to determine whether spring precipitation can account for some of this asynchronous variability observed between the April 1 SWE and streamflow records. Aside from improved understanding of the relationship between hydroclimate and streamflow in the headwaters of the Missouri River, our findings offer insights relating to changing contributions from snowmelt and spring precipitation, and long-term hydrologic variability and trends relevant to water resource management and planning efforts.

Testing coral-based tropical cyclone reconstructions: An example from Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kilbourne, K. Halimeda; Moyer, Ryan P.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Grottoli, Andrea G.

2011-01-01

Complimenting modern records of tropical cyclone activity with longer historical and paleoclimatological records would increase our understanding of natural tropical cyclone variability on decadal to centennial time scales. Tropical cyclones produce large amounts of precipitation with significantly lower δ18O values than normal precipitation, and hence may be geochemically identifiable as negative δ18O anomalies in marine carbonate δ18O records. This study investigates the usefulness of coral skeletal δ18O as a means of reconstructing past tropical cyclone events. Isotopic modeling of rainfall mixing with seawater shows that detecting an isotopic signal from a tropical cyclone in a coral requires a salinity of ~ 33 psu at the time of coral growth, but this threshold is dependent on the isotopic composition of both fresh and saline end-members. A comparison between coral δ18O and historical records of tropical cyclone activity, river discharge, and precipitation from multiple sites in Puerto Rico shows that tropical cyclones are not distinguishable in the coral record from normal rainfall using this approach at these sites.

Examining spatial-temporal variability and prediction of rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammed, B. U.; Kaduk, J.; Balzter, H.

2012-12-01

In the last 50 years rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria under the influence of the West African Monsoon (WAM) has been characterised by large annual variations with severe droughts recorded in 1967-1973, and 1983-1987. This variability in rainfall has a large impact on the regions agricultural output, economy and security where the majority of the people depend on subsistence agriculture. In the 1990s there was a sign of recovery with higher annual rainfall totals compared to the 1961-1990 period but annual totals were slightly above the long term mean for the century. In this study we examine how significant this recovery is by analysing medium-term (1980-2006) rainfall of the region using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) precipitation ½ degree, 6 hourly reanalysis data set. Percentage coefficient of variation increases northwards for annual rainfall (10%-35%) and the number of rainy days (10%-50%). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) of the area shows 7 years during the period as very wet (1996, 1999, 2003 and 2004) with SPI≥1.5 and moderately wet (1993, 1998, and 2006) with values of 1.0≥SPI≤1.49. Annual rainfall indicates a recovery from the 1990s and onwards but significant increases (in the amount of rainfall and number of days recorded with rainfall) is only during the peak of the monsoon season in the months of August and September (p<0.05) with no significant increases in the months following the onset of rainfall. Forecasting of monthly rainfall was made using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The model is further evaluated using 24 months rainfall data yielding r=0.79 (regression slope=0.8; p<0.0001) in the sub-humid part of the study area and r=0.65 (regression slope=0.59, and p<0.0001) in the northern semi-arid part. The results suggest that despite the positive changes in rainfall (without significant increases in the months following the onset of the monsoon), the area has not fully recovered from the drought years of the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. These findings also highlight the implications of the current recovery on rain fed agriculture and water resources in the study area. The strong correlation and a root mean square error of 64.8 mm between the ARIMA model and the rainfall data used for this study indicates that the model can be satisfactorily used in forecasting rainfall in the in the sub-humid part of North-eastern Nigeria over a 24 months period.

Validation of Satellite Precipitation (trmm 3B43) in Ecuadorian Coastal Plains, Andean Highlands and Amazonian Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballari, D.; Castro, E.; Campozano, L.

2016-06-01

Precipitation monitoring is of utmost importance for water resource management. However, in regions of complex terrain such as Ecuador, the high spatio-temporal precipitation variability and the scarcity of rain gauges, make difficult to obtain accurate estimations of precipitation. Remotely sensed estimated precipitation, such as the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis TRMM, can cope with this problem after a validation process, which must be representative in space and time. In this work we validate monthly estimates from TRMM 3B43 satellite precipitation (0.25° x 0.25° resolution), by using ground data from 14 rain gauges in Ecuador. The stations are located in the 3 most differentiated regions of the country: the Pacific coastal plains, the Andean highlands, and the Amazon rainforest. Time series, between 1998 - 2010, of imagery and rain gauges were compared using statistical error metrics such as bias, root mean square error, and Pearson correlation; and with detection indexes such as probability of detection, equitable threat score, false alarm rate and frequency bias index. The results showed that precipitation seasonality is well represented and TRMM 3B43 acceptably estimates the monthly precipitation in the three regions of the country. According to both, statistical error metrics and detection indexes, the coastal and Amazon regions are better estimated quantitatively than the Andean highlands. Additionally, it was found that there are better estimations for light precipitation rates. The present validation of TRMM 3B43 provides important results to support further studies on calibration and bias correction of precipitation in ungagged watershed basins.

Investigation of the 2013 Alberta flood from weather and climate perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teufel, Bernardo; Diro, G. T.; Whan, K.; Milrad, S. M.; Jeong, D. I.; Ganji, A.; Huziy, O.; Winger, K.; Gyakum, J. R.; de Elia, R.; Zwiers, F. W.; Sushama, L.

2017-05-01

During 19-21 June 2013 a heavy precipitation event affected southern Alberta and adjoining regions, leading to severe flood damage in numerous communities and resulting in the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This flood was caused by a combination of meteorological and hydrological factors, which are investigated from weather and climate perspectives with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model. Results show that the contribution of orographic ascent to precipitation was important, exceeding 30 % over the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Another contributing factor was evapotranspiration from the land surface, which is found to have acted as an important moisture source and was likely enhanced by antecedent rainfall that increased soil moisture over the northern Great Plains. Event attribution analysis suggests that human induced greenhouse gas increases may also have contributed by causing evapotranspiration rates to be higher than they would have been under pre-industrial conditions. Frozen and snow-covered soils at high elevations are likely to have played an important role in generating record streamflows. Results point to a doubling of surface runoff due to the frozen conditions, while 25 % of the modelled runoff originated from snowmelt. The estimated return time of the 3-day precipitation event exceeds 50 years over a large region, and an increase in the occurrence of similar extreme precipitation events is projected by the end of the 21st century. Event attribution analysis suggests that greenhouse gas increases may have increased 1-day and 3-day return levels of May-June precipitation with respect to pre-industrial climate conditions. However, no anthropogenic influence can be detected for 1-day and 3-day surface runoff, as increases in extreme precipitation in the present-day climate are offset by decreased snow cover and lower frozen water content in soils during the May-June transition months, compared to pre-industrial climate.

The temporal evolution of magnesium isotope fractionation during hydromagnesite dissolution, precipitation, and at equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oelkers, Eric H.; Berninger, Ulf-Niklas; Pérez-Fernàndez, Andrea; Chmeleff, Jérôme; Mavromatis, Vasileios

2018-04-01

This study provides experimental evidence of the resetting of the magnesium (Mg) isotope signatures of hydromagnesite in the presence of an aqueous fluid during its congruent dissolution, precipitation, and at equilibrium at ambient temperatures over month-long timescales. All experiments were performed in batch reactors in aqueous sodium carbonate buffer solutions having a pH from 7.8 to 9.2. The fluid phase in all experiments attained bulk chemical equilibrium within analytical uncertainty with hydromagnesite within several days, but the experiments were allowed to continue for up to 575 days. During congruent hydromagnesite dissolution, the fluid first became enriched in isotopically light Mg compared to the dissolving hydromagnesite, but this Mg isotope composition became heavier after the fluid attained chemical equilibrium with the mineral. The δ26Mg composition of the fluid was up to ∼0.35‰ heavier than the initial dissolving hydromagnesite at the end of the dissolution experiments. Hydromagnesite precipitation was provoked during one experiment by increasing the reaction temperature from 4 to 50 °C. The δ26Mg composition of the fluid increased as hydromagnesite precipitated and continued to increase after the fluid attained bulk equilibrium with this phase. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that mineral-fluid equilibrium is dynamic (i.e. dissolution and precipitation occur at equal, non-zero rates at equilibrium). Moreover the results presented in this study confirm (1) that the transfer of material from the solid to the fluid phase may not be conservative during stoichiometric dissolution, and (2) that the isotopic compositions of carbonate minerals can evolve even when the mineral is in bulk chemical equilibrium with its coexisting fluid. This latter observation suggests that the preservation of isotopic signatures of carbonate minerals in the geological record may require a combination of the isolation of fluid-mineral system from external chemical input and/or the existence of a yet to be defined dissolution/precipitation inhibition mechanism.

West Bank of the Mississippi River in the Vicinity of New Orleans, Louisiana (East of the Harvey Canal) Hurricane Protection Study. Technical Appendixes. Volume 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-01

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, 30-YEAR NORMALS (1951-1980) A-I-3 A-I-2 MEAN MONTHLY AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURE , 30-YEAR NORMALS (1951-1980) A-I-4 A-1-3 AVERAGE ...Environmental Quality (DEQ). CLIMATE The climate of the area is humid si!btropicl. AMual average temperature in the project area is 68°F, with monthly...normal temperatures varying from 82’F in July to 531F in Januwry. Average annual precipitation over tae area is 63 inche!, maiying from a monthly

Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

2013-12-01

A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be important indicators of climatic change that may not be represented in mean conditions. Detailed geographical and temporal variations of the spell indices also can be beneficial for updating management decisions and providing adaptation recommendations for local and regional agricultural production.

Space-time characteristics and statistical predictability of extreme daily precipitation events in the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnham, D. J.; Doss-Gollin, J.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

In this study we identify the atmospheric conditions that precede and accompany regional extreme precipitation events with the potential to cause flooding. We begin by identifying a coherent space-time structure in the record of extreme precipitation within the Ohio River Basin through both a Hidden Markov Model and a composite analysis. The transition probabilities associated with the Hidden Markov Model illustrate a tendency for west to east migration of extreme precipitation events (> 99th percentile) at individual stations within the Ohio River Basin. We compute a record of regional extreme precipitation days by requiring that > p% of the basin's stations simultaneously experience extreme precipitation days. A composite analysis of low-level geopotential heights and column integrated precipitable water content for all non-summer seasons confirms a west to east migration and intensification of 1) a low (high) pressure center to the west (east) of the basin, and 2) enhanced precipitable water vapor content that stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to the Northeast US region in the days leading up to regional extreme precipitation days. We define a daily dipole index to summarize the strength of the paired cylonic and aniticyclonic systems to the west and east of the basin and analyze its temporal characteristics and its relationship to the regional extreme precipitation events. Lastly, we investigate and discuss the subseasonal predictability of individual extreme precipitation events and the seasonal predictability of active and inactive seasons, where the activity level is defined by the expected frequency of regional extreme precipitation events.

Reconstructing hydroclimatic variations using compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis of biomarkers from a maar lake in the Central Highlands, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doiron, K. E.; Stevens, L. R.; Sauer, P. E.

2017-12-01

Monsoonal variation in Southeast Asia affects a significant portion of the global population, but knowledge regarding response of the monsoon system to changing boundary conditions is limited. The paleoclimatic tool of compound-specific isotope analysis(CSIA) provides the ability to reconstruct past precipitation using a diverse set of biomarkers preserved in the sedimentary record. Limited proxies in tropical southeast Asia and difficult site access have led to a deficit in paleoclimate records. Ia M'He (14°10'45" N, 107°52' E) is a shallow volcanic crater (maar) lake, approximately 57 ha, located in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. Precipitation in the Central Highlands is sensitive to reorganizations of major climatic features, such as the migration of the ITCZ and the coupled Indo-Asian monsoon, ENSO and related shifts in the Pacific Walker Circulation and typhoon frequency. To examine this complex behavior, this pilot study aims to provide a 500-year record of effective moisture inferred from CSIA of hydrogen isotopes on biomarkers. This study highlights the use of hydrogen isotopes of C28 n-alkanoic acid and dominant n-alkane chain lengths of C27 and C29, associated with terrestrial plant leaf waxes, as tracers for precipitation. The hydrogen isotope ratios of the plant wax components provide a proxy for paleo precipitation in a region where rainfall and droughts heavily influence population dynamics and create social discord. The CSIA record is expected to correlate with records from northern Vietnam, the South China Sea and Indonesia, with greater precipitation during the Little Ice Age. The CSIA data of terrestrial plant leaf waxes will be compared with secondary proxies including: diatoms, C/N and biogenic silica.

A 120 ka record of reconstructed paleoprecipitation signals at Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia derived from compound-specific δD analysis of terrestrial biomarkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkie, K. M.; Chapligin, B.; Burns, S. J.; Petsch, S.; Meyer, H.; Brigham-Grette, J.

2011-12-01

Sediment cores recovered from Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia extend back to 3.6Ma, representing the longest time-continuous sediment record of past climate change in the terrestrial Arctic. Comparison of the stable isotope composition of modern precipitation and compound-specific isotopic analyses of modern vegetation and sedimentary lipids from the last 120ka allows reconstruction of past hydrological conditions, thereby providing a powerful tool for reconstructing past Arctic climate changes. The stable isotopic composition of modern precipitation, streams, and lake water are presented and used to constrain isotope systematics of the Lake El'gygytgyn Basin hydrology. The hydrogen isotopic compositions (δD) of alkanoic acids from modern vegetation are compared with modern precipitation and lake core top sediments. Multi-species net fractionation values between source water and leaf wax lipid δD values (-113 ± 13%) agree with previous results in arid environments and provide a basis for applying this proxy further downcore. δD measurements of sedimentary alkanoic acids representing terrestrial sources (e.g. δDTER: nC30) show significant variation (up to 70%) over the past 120 ka. Interglacial periods are characterized by isotopic enrichment while the most negative δDTER values occur during glacial conditions (i.e. the Last Glacial Maximum and MIS 4). Preliminary reconstruction of the isotopic composition of past precipitation from the δDTER record correlates strongly with the δ18Ocalcite record from Sanbao and Hulu caves1 (China) and the δDvostok record2 (Antarctica) suggesting global teleconnections and 'circum-Pacific' coherence to paleo-precipitation archives. 1 Wang et al. (2005), Science 308, 854-857. 2 Petit et al. (1999), Nature 399, 429-436.