Stress, cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones: Prospective prediction of 6-month changes in food cravings and weight.

PubMed

Chao, Ariana M; Jastreboff, Ania M; White, Marney A; Grilo, Carlos M; Sinha, Rajita

2017-04-01

To examine whether baseline chronic stress, morning cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones (leptin, ghrelin, and insulin) predict future weight gain and food cravings in a naturalistic, longitudinal, 6-month follow-up study. A prospective community cohort of 339 adults (age 29.1 ± 9.0 years; BMI = 26.7 ± 5.4 kg/m 2 ; 56.9% female; 70.2% white) completed assessments at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Fasting blood draws were used to assess cortisol and other appetite-related hormone levels at baseline. At baseline and follow-up, body weight was measured, and the Cumulative Adversity Interview and Food Craving Inventory were administered. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Over the 6-month period, 49.9% of the sample gained weight. Food cravings and chronic stress decreased over 6 months (Ps < 0.05). However, after adjusting for covariates, individuals with higher baseline total ghrelin had significantly higher food cravings at 6 months (P = 0.04). Furthermore, higher cortisol, insulin, and chronic stress were each predictive of greater future weight gain (Ps < 0.05). These results suggest that ghrelin plays a role in increased food cravings and reward-driven eating behaviors. Studies are needed that examine the utility of stress reduction methods for normalizing disrupted cortisol responses and preventing future weight gain. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Stress, cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones: Prospective prediction of 6-month changes in food cravings and weight

PubMed Central

Chao, Ariana M.; Jastreboff, Ania M.; White, Marney A.; Grilo, Carlos M.; Sinha, Rajita

2017-01-01

Objective To examine whether baseline chronic stress, morning cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones (leptin, ghrelin, and insulin) predict future weight gain and food cravings in a naturalistic longitudinal 6-month follow-up study. Methods A prospective community cohort of three hundred and thirty-nine adults (age=29.1± 9.0 years; BMI=26.7±5.4 kg/m2; 56.9% female; 70.2% White) completed assessments at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Fasting blood draws were used to assess cortisol and other appetite-related hormones levels at baseline. At baseline and follow-up, body weight was measured and the Cumulative Adversity Interview and Food Craving Inventory were administered. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Results Over the 6-month period, 49.9% of the sample gained weight. Food cravings and chronic stress decreased over 6 months (ps<0.05). However, after adjusting for covariates, individuals with higher baseline total ghrelin had significantly higher food cravings at 6 months (p=0.04). Furthermore, higher cortisol, insulin, and chronic stress were each predictive of greater future weight gain (ps<0.05). Conclusions These results suggest that ghrelin plays a role in increased food cravings and reward-driven eating behaviors. Studies are needed that examine the utility of stress reduction methods for normalizing disrupted cortisol responses and preventing future weight gain. PMID:28349668

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Future changes in drought characteristics over South Korea using multi regional climate models with the standardized precipitation index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Yeon-Woo; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2016-05-01

In this study, the projection of future drought conditions is estimated over South Korea based on the latest and most advanced sets of regional climate model simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios, within the context of the national downscaling project of the Republic of Korea. The five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to produce climate-change simulations around the Korean Peninsula and to estimate the uncertainty associated with these simulations. The horizontal resolution of each RCM is 12.5 km and model simulations are available for historical (1981-2010) and future (2021-2100) periods under forcing from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. To assess the characteristics of drought on multiple time scales in the future, we use Standardized Precipitation Indices for 1-month (SPI- 1), 6-month (SPI-6) and 12-month (SPI-12). The number of drought months in the future is shown to be characterized by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends among the scenarios. In particular, the number of drought months over South Korea is projected to increase (decrease) for the period 2041-2070 in the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and increase (decrease) for the period 2071-2100 in the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In addition, the percentage area under any drought condition is overall projected to gradually decrease over South Korea during the entire future period, with the exception of SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario. Particularly, the drought areas for SPI-1 in the RCP4.5 scenario show weakly positive long-term trend. Otherwise, future changes in drought areas for SPI-6 and SPI-12 have a marked downward trend under the two RCP scenarios.

17 CFR Appendix A to Part 151 - Spot-Month Position Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Referencedcontract spot- month limit Agricultural Referenced Contracts ICE Futures U.S. Cocoa 1,000 ICE Futures U.S. Coffee C 500 Chicago Board of Trade Corn 600 ICE Futures U.S. Cotton No. 2 300 ICE Futures U.S. FCOJ-A... of Trade Soybean Meal 720 Chicago Board of Trade Soybean Oil 540 ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 5,000...

17 CFR Appendix A to Part 151 - Spot-Month Position Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Referencedcontract spot- month limit Agricultural Referenced Contracts ICE Futures U.S. Cocoa 1,000 ICE Futures U.S. Coffee C 500 Chicago Board of Trade Corn 600 ICE Futures U.S. Cotton No. 2 300 ICE Futures U.S. FCOJ-A... of Trade Soybean Meal 720 Chicago Board of Trade Soybean Oil 540 ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 5,000...

17 CFR Appendix A to Part 151 - Spot-Month Position Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Contract Referencedcontract spot- month limit Agricultural Referenced Contracts ICE Futures U.S. Cocoa 1,000 ICE Futures U.S. Coffee C 500 Chicago Board of Trade Corn 600 ICE Futures U.S. Cotton No. 2 300 ICE Futures U.S. FCOJ-A 300 Chicago Mercantile Exchange Class III Milk 1,500 Chicago Mercantile...

Use of a Short-Form Balance Confidence Scale to Predict Future Recurrent Falls in People With Parkinson Disease.

PubMed

Cole, Michael H; Rippey, Jodi; Naughton, Geraldine A; Silburn, Peter A

2016-01-01

To assess whether the 16-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-16) and short-form 6-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-6) could predict future recurrent falls in people with Parkinson disease (PD) and to validate the robustness of their predictive capacities. Twelve-month prospective cohort study. General community. People with idiopathic PD (N=79). Clinical tests were conducted to assess symptom severity, balance confidence, and medical history. Over the subsequent 12 months, participants recorded any falls on daily fall calendars, which they returned monthly by reply paid post. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses estimated the sensitivities and specificities of the ABC-16 and ABC-6 for predicting future recurrent falls in this cohort, and "leave-one-out" validation was used to assess their robustness. Of the 79 patients who completed follow-up, 28 (35.4%) fell more than once during the 12-month period. Both the ABC-16 and ABC-6 were significant predictors of future recurrent falls, and moderate sensitivities (ABC-16: 75.0%; ABC-6: 71.4%) and specificities (ABC-16: 76.5%; ABC-6: 74.5%) were reported for each tool for a cutoff score of 77.5 and 65.8, respectively. The results have significant implications and demonstrate that the ABC-16 and ABC-6 independently identify patients with PD at risk of future recurrent falls. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future self-continuity is associated with improved health and increases exercise behavior.

PubMed

Rutchick, Abraham M; Slepian, Michael L; Reyes, Monica O; Pleskus, Lindsay N; Hershfield, Hal E

2018-03-01

To the extent that people feel more continuity between their present and future selves, they are more likely to make decisions with the future self in mind. The current studies examined future self-continuity in the context of health. In Study 1, people reported the extent to which they felt similar and connected to their future self; people with more present-future continuity reported having better subjective health across a variety of measures. In Study 2, people were randomly assigned to write a letter to themselves either three months or 20 years into the future; people for whom continuity with the distant future self was enhanced exercised more in the days following the writing task. These findings suggest that future self-continuity promotes adaptive long-term health behavior, suggesting the promise of interventions enhancing future self-continuity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Optimism following a tornado disaster.

PubMed

Suls, Jerry; Rose, Jason P; Windschitl, Paul D; Smith, Andrew R

2013-05-01

Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

2017-05-03

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

Predictors of Future Expectations of Inner-City Children: A 9-Month Prospective Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Arnett, Mitzi; Smith, Katherine; Ippolito, Maria F.

2001-01-01

Assessed contributions of internal resources, supportive family and peer relations, peer negative influences, and behavioral adjustment to positive expectations for the future for inner-city school children. Found that higher levels of positive expectation related to lower levels of problem behavior and to higher levels of school involvement,…

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andy

2017-03-16

Simulations of future climate suggest profiles of temperature and precipitation may differ significantly from those in the past. These changes in climate will likely lead to changes in the hydrologic cycle. As such, natural resource managers are in need of tools that can provide estimates of key components of the hydrologic cycle, uncertainty associated with the estimates, and limitations associated with the climate forcing data used to estimate these components. To help address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) provides a user friendly interface to deliver hydrologic and meteorological variables for monthly historic and potential future climatic conditions across the continental United States.

West Coast atmospheric river climatology in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P.

2015-12-01

In recent years, there has been a flurry of research on how atmospheric river events (ARs) will respond to anthropogenic global warming. This study uses 10 CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models to focus on changes in AR frequency, seasonality, and synoptic conditions along the west coast of the United States and is a follow-up to previous work by the same authors (Warner et al. 2015) which investigated expected changes in AR intensity in the same region. There are only very slight changes in annual AR climatology from the end of the last century to the end of this century when considering the most extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (99th percentile). However, when evaluating by the number of future days exceeding a historical threshold, there are significant increases in extreme IVT events in all months, especially during months when the majority of events take place. The peaks in historical and future frequency occur in similar months given the amount of model variability. Extreme IVT events appear to be occurring slightly earlier in the season, particularly along the northern US coast, and these results are similar to other studies. Spatially, 10-model mean historical composites of IVT reveal canonical AR conditions. At locations farther south, there is less model agreement on the spatial extent and intensity of AR events; whereas farther north, the various models are in agreement. Composites of future events indicate very little spatial change from historical events. The location and orientation of AR events in the historical and future time periods are similar, and the upper-level winds change little over that time period (Warner et al. 2015). This suggests little change in synoptic conditions for approaching ARs. The future-historical difference plots highlight the largest changes expected in the future, namely increases in IVT intensity which are primarily associated with thermodynamic changes related to future integrated water vapor increases due to a warming atmosphere.

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring more in depth studies for these regions to facilitate appropriate adaptation measures.

Effectiveness of psychological interventions to improve quality of life in people with long-term conditions: rapid systematic review of randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Anderson, Niall; Ozakinci, Gozde

2018-03-27

Long-term conditions may negatively impact multiple aspects of quality of life including physical functioning and mental wellbeing. The rapid systematic review aimed to examine the effectiveness of psychological interventions to improve quality of life in people with long-term conditions to inform future healthcare provision and research. EBSCOhost and OVID were used to search four databases (PsychInfo, PBSC, Medline and Embase). Relevant papers were systematically extracted by one researcher using the predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria based on titles, abstracts, and full texts. Randomized controlled trial psychological interventions conducted between 2006 and February 2016 to directly target and assess people with long-term conditions in order to improve quality of life were included. Interventions without long-term condition populations, psychological intervention and/or patient-assessed quality of life were excluded. From 2223 citations identified, 6 satisfied the inclusion/exclusion criteria. All 6 studies significantly improved at least one quality of life outcome immediately post-intervention. Significant quality of life improvements were maintained at 12-months follow-up in one out of two studies for each of the short- (0-3 months), medium- (3-12 months), and long-term (≥ 12 months) study duration categories. All 6 psychological intervention studies significantly improved at least one quality of life outcome immediately post-intervention, with three out of six studies maintaining effects up to 12-months post-intervention. Future studies should seek to assess the efficacy of tailored psychological interventions using different formats, durations and facilitators to supplement healthcare provision and practice.

THE COOPERATIVE INTERNATIONAL NEUROMUSCULAR RESEARCH GROUP DUCHENNE NATURAL HISTORY STUDY—A LONGITUDINAL INVESTIGATION IN THE ERA OF GLUCOCORTICOID THERAPY: DESIGN OF PROTOCOL AND THE METHODS USED

PubMed Central

McDonald, Craig M.; Henricson, Erik K.; Abresch, R. Ted; Han, Jay J.; Escolar, Diana M.; Florence, Julaine M.; Duong, Tina; Arrieta, Adrienne; Clemens, Paula R.; Hoffman, Eric P.; Cnaan, Avital

2014-01-01

Contemporary natural history data in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is needed to assess care recommendations and aid in planning future trials. Methods The Cooperative International Neuromuscular Research Group (CINRG) DMD Natural History Study (DMD-NHS) enrolled 340 individuals, aged 2–28 years, with DMD in a longitudinal, observational study at 20 centers. Assessments obtained every 3 months for 1 year, at 18 months, and annually thereafter included: clinical history; anthropometrics; goniometry; manual muscle testing; quantitative muscle strength; timed function tests; pulmonary function; and patient-reported outcomes/ health-related quality-of-life instruments. Results Glucocorticoid (GC) use at baseline was 62% present, 14% past, and 24% GC-naive. In those ≥6 years of age, 16% lost ambulation over the first 12 months (mean age 10.8 years). Conclusions Detailed information on the study methodology of the CINRG DMD-NHS lays the groundwork for future analyses of prospective longitudinal natural history data. These data will assist investigators in designing clinical trials of novel therapeutics. PMID:23677550

Perceived STD risk, relationship, and health values in adolescents' delaying sexual intercourse with new partners

PubMed Central

Rosengard, C; Adler, N; Millstein, S; Gurvey, J; Ellen, J

2004-01-01

Objectives: To examine the amount of time adolescents waited to have intercourse with past partners (main and casual), and intentions to delay with future partners. To determine psychosocial factors which predict delay intentions among adolescent males and females with future partners (main and casual). Methods: Adolescent STD clinic attendees were approached before clinical appointments to participate in an interview. Data from 205 participants who had previous experience with both main and casual partners were used in the current study. Results: Adolescents waited less time to have intercourse with most recent casual than with most recent main partners (χ2 = 31.97, p<0.0001). The amount of time waited with past partners was shorter than intended time to wait in future relationships (medians of 1 month v 2 months (main) (t = 3.47, p<0.0010; medians of 2 weeks v 1 month (casual) (t = 6.14, p<0.0001)). Factors influencing intentions to delay intercourse with future main partners differed by sex; males were negatively influenced by importance of sex in relationships, while females were positively influenced by importance of intimacy in relationships, perceived risk of STDs, and health values. Conclusions: Implications for designing interventions for adolescent males and females are discussed. PMID:15054176

17 CFR 20.3 - Clearing organizations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... day; (5) A proprietary or clearing member customer account indicator; (6) The futures equivalent month...; (13) Gross long non-delta-adjusted swaption positions; and (14) Gross short non-delta-adjusted swaption positions. (c) End of reporting day data. For all futures equivalent months, clearing...

17 CFR 20.3 - Clearing organizations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... day; (5) A proprietary or clearing member customer account indicator; (6) The futures equivalent month...; (13) Gross long non-delta-adjusted swaption positions; and (14) Gross short non-delta-adjusted swaption positions. (c) End of reporting day data. For all futures equivalent months, clearing...

The Medial Temporal Lobes are Critical for Reward-Based Decision Making under Conditions that Promote Episodic Future Thinking

PubMed Central

Palombo, Daniela J.; Keane, Margaret M.; Verfaellie, Mieke

2014-01-01

In the present study, we investigated the effect of medial temporal lobe (MTL) damage on human decision making in the context of reward-based intertemporal choice. During intertemporal choice, humans typically devalue (or discount) a future reward to account for its delayed arrival (e.g., preferring $30 now over $42 in 2 months), but this effect is attenuated when participants engage in episodic future thinking, i.e., project themselves into the future to imagine a specific event. We hypothesized that this attenuation would be selectively impaired in amnesic patients, who have deficits in episodic future thinking. Replicating previous work, in a standard intertemporal choice task, amnesic patients showed temporal discounting indices similar to healthy controls. Consistent with our hypothesis, while healthy controls demonstrated attenuated temporal discounting in a condition that required participants first to engage in episodic future thinking (e.g., to imagine spending $42 at a theatre in 2 months), amnesic patients failed to demonstrate this effect. Moreover, as expected, amnesic patients’ narratives were less episodically rich than those of controls. These findings extend the range of tasks that are shown to be MTL dependent to include not only memory-based decision-making tasks but also future-oriented ones. PMID:25284804

BeGraft Peripheral PMCF Study: 12-month results.

PubMed

Deloose, Koen; Bosiers, Marc; Callaert, Joren; Peeters, Patrick; Verbist, Jurgen; van den Eynde, Wouter; Maene, Lieven; Beelen, Roel; Keirse, Koen

2017-05-26

The Begraft Peripheral PMCF study is a prospective, non-randomized study, conducted at the vascular departments of 4 hospitals in Belgium. This manuscript reports the findings up to 12-month follow-up time for the total cohort. The primary endpoint of the study is primary patency at 12 months. Primary patency is defined as a target lesion without a hemodynamically significant stenosis on duplex ultrasound (>50%, systolic velocity ratio no greater than 2.4) and without Target Lesion Revascularization (TLR) within 12 months. Between June 2014 and March 2015, 70 patients with TASC II Class A (77.1%), B (14.3%), C (5.7%) or D (2.9%) aortoiliac lesions were included. The mean lesion length was 34.3mm with a mean degree of stenosis of 83.16%. Primary patency rate for the total patient population was 94.4% at 12-month follow-up. Freedom from TLR at 12-month was 96.7%. These results confirm the already existing enthusiasm of the use of covered stents in the aorto-iliac field. Longer follow-up and more complex lesions have to be studies in the upcoming future.

The Origins of 12-Month Attachment: A Microanalysis of 4-Month Mother-Infant Interaction

PubMed Central

Beebe, Beatrice; Jaffe, Joseph; Markese, Sara; Buck, Karen; Chen, Henian; Cohen, Patricia; Bahrick, Lorraine; Andrews, Howard; Feldstein, Stanley

2013-01-01

A detailed microanalysis of 4-month mother-infant face-to-face communication revealed a fine-grained specification of essential communication processes that predicted 12-month insecure attachment outcomes, particularly resistant and disorganized classifications. An urban community sample of 84 dyads were videotaped at 4 months during a face-to-face interaction, and at 12 months during the Ainsworth Strange Situation. Four-month mother and infant communication modalities of attention, affect, touch, and spatial orientation were coded from split-screen videotape on a 1s time base; mother and infant facial-visual “engagement” variables were constructed. We used contingency measures (multi-level time-series modeling) to examine the dyadic temporal process over time, and specific rates of qualitative features of behavior to examine the content of behavior. Self-contingency (auto-correlation) measured the degree of stability/lability within an individual’s own rhythms of behavior; interactive contingency (lagged cross-correlation) measured adjustments of the individual’s behavior that were correlated with the partner’s previous behavior. We documented that both self- and interactive contingency, as well as specific qualitative features, of mother and infant behavior were mechanisms of attachment formation by 4 months, distinguishing 12-month insecure, resistant, and disorganized attachment classifications from secure; avoidant were too few to test. All communication modalities made unique contributions. The separate analysis of different communication modalities identified intermodal discrepancies or conflict, both intrapersonal and interpersonal, that characterized insecure dyads. Contrary to dominant theories in the literature on face-to-face interaction, measures of maternal contingent coordination with infant yielded the fewest associations with 12-month attachment, whereas mother and infant self-contingency, and infant contingent coordination with mother, yielded comparable numbers of findings. Rather than the more usual hypothesis that more contingency is “better,” we partially supported our hypothesis that 12-month insecurity is associated with both higher and lower 4-month self- and interactive contingency values than secure, as a function of mother vs. infant and communication modality. Thus, in the origins of attachment security, more contingency is not necessarily better. A remarkable degree of differentiation was identified in the 4-month patterns of “future” C and D infants, classified as resistant and disorganized, respectively, at 12 months. Only future D infants were emotionally distressed, with simultaneous positive and negative discrepant affect; only their mothers showed difficulty in sharing infant affect, particularly distress, and lowered their contingent coordination with infant facial-visual engagement. This lowered contingent coordination makes it more difficult for infants to come to expect that their emotional/attentional states can influence mothers to coordinate with them and thus compromises the infant’s sense of interactive efficacy. Only future C dyads showed the spatial approach/avoid pattern of “chase and dodge;” only mothers of future D infants showed the spatial intrusion pattern of “looming” into the infant’s face. Both future C and D dyads showed patterns of touch dysregulation. Future C infants inhibited their emotional coordination with mothers’ less affectionate touch, as if tuning it out. Future D dyads showed a dyadic touch dysregulation, in which mothers lowered their coordination with infant touch, while infants had a lowered ability to use their own touch. Both mothers of future C and D infants disturbed the stability of the spatial “frame” of the encounter by transitioning among upward, forward and loom orientations in less predictable ways than mothers of future B infants. Only mothers of future D infants disturbed the attentional “frame” as well, by looking and looking away from the infant’s face in less predictable ways than mothers of future B infants. Only mothers of future D infants showed methods of managing their own state which distanced them from their infants, such as extensive looking away and “closing up” their faces. The intact interactive contingency of the mother of the future C infant overall safeguards the infant’s interactive agency, and the infant’s expectation that mother will match the direction of infant affective change, sharing infant states. However, we proposed that the future C infant will have difficulty feeling sensed and known by mother during her spatial/tactile intrusions. The central feature of future D dyads is intrapersonal and interpersonal discordance or conflict in the context of intensely distressed infants. Lowered maternal contingent coordination, and failures of maternal affective correspondence, constitute maternal emotional withdrawal from distressed infants, compromising infant interactive agency and emotional coherence. The level of dysregulation in future D dyads is thus of an entirely different order than that of future C dyads. We proposed that the future D infant represents not being sensed and known by the mother, particularly in states of distress. We proposed that the emerging internal working model of future D infants includes confusion about their own basic emotional organization, about their mothers’ emotional organization, and about their mothers’ response to their distress, setting a trajectory in development which may disturb the fundamental integration of the person. The findings have rich implications for clinical intervention, with remarkable specificity for different kinds of mother and infant distress. The concepts of heightened and lowered self- and interactive contingency, in different modalities, as well as the specific behavioral qualities identified, provide a more differentiated set of concepts to guide clinical intervention. PMID:20390524

Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyaztas, Ufuk; Bickici Arikan, Bugrayhan; Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye; Kahya, Ercan

2018-04-01

In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

Seasonal forecasting of groundwater levels in natural aquifers in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, Jonathan; Jackson, Christopher; Pachocka, Magdalena; Brookshaw, Anca; Scaife, Adam

2014-05-01

Groundwater aquifers comprise the world's largest freshwater resource and provide resilience to climate extremes which could become more frequent under future climate changes. Prolonged dry conditions can induce groundwater drought, often characterised by significantly low groundwater levels which may persist for months to years. In contrast, lasting wet conditions can result in anomalously high groundwater levels which result in flooding, potentially at large economic cost. Using computational models to produce groundwater level forecasts allows appropriate management strategies to be considered in advance of extreme events. The majority of groundwater level forecasting studies to date use data-based models, which exploit the long response time of groundwater levels to meteorological drivers and make forecasts based only on the current state of the system. Instead, seasonal meteorological forecasts can be used to drive hydrological models and simulate groundwater levels months into the future. Such approaches have not been used in the past due to a lack of skill in these long-range forecast products. However systems such as the latest version of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) are now showing increased skill up to a 3-month lead time. We demonstrate the first groundwater level ensemble forecasting system using a multi-member ensemble of hindcasts from GloSea5 between 1996 and 2009 to force 21 simple lumped conceptual groundwater models covering most of the UK's major aquifers. We present the results from this hindcasting study and demonstrate that the system can be used to forecast groundwater levels with some skill up to three months into the future.

Predictors of depression among refugees from Vietnam: a longitudinal study of new arrivals.

PubMed

Hinton, W L; Tiet, Q; Tran, C G; Chesney, M

1997-01-01

The present study examined the impact of prearrival traumatic experiences and sociodemographic characteristics on future depression among Vietnamese and Chinese refugees from Vietnam. This is a longitudinal study of newly arrived refugees from Vietnam undergoing a mandatory health screening. A stratified consecutive sample of ethnic Chinese and ethnic Vietnamese refugees was drawn. The depression subscale of the Indochinese Hopkins symptoms checklist was administered to 114 refugees within the first 6 months after arrival in the United States and 12 to 18 months later. Ethnic Vietnamese reported more prearrival trauma compared with ethnic Chinese. Age was strongly correlated with time 2 depression among ethnic Vietnamese but not among ethnic Chinese. Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that being a veteran, older, unattached, less proficient in English, ethnic Vietnamese, and more depressed at baseline predicted higher depression at follow-up. Although prearrival trauma predicted future depression, other sociodemographic characteristics assumed more importance with time.

Application of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Predict Rainfall and Its Spatial Analysis Over Subansiri River Basin of Assam, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barman, S.; Bhattacharjya, R. K.

2017-12-01

The River Subansiri is the major north bank tributary of river Brahmaputra. It originates from the range of Himalayas beyond the Great Himalayan range at an altitude of approximately 5340m. Subansiri basin extends from tropical to temperate zones and hence exhibits a great diversity in rainfall characteristics. In the Northern and Central Himalayan tracts, precipitation is scarce on account of high altitudes. On the other hand, Southeast part of the Subansiri basin comprising the sub-Himalayan and the plain tract in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, lies in the tropics. Due to Northeast as well as Southwest monsoon, precipitation occurs in this region in abundant quantities. Particularly, Southwest monsoon causes very heavy precipitation in the entire Subansiri basin during May to October. In this study, the rainfall over Subansiri basin has been studied at 24 different locations by multiple linear and non-linear regression based statistical downscaling techniques and by Artificial Neural Network based model. APHRODITE's gridded rainfall data of 0.25˚ x 0.25˚ resolutions and climatic parameters of HadCM3 GCM of resolution 2.5˚ x 3.75˚ (latitude by longitude) have been used in this study. It has been found that multiple non-linear regression based statistical downscaling technique outperformed the other techniques. Using this method, the future rainfall pattern over the Subansiri basin has been analyzed up to the year 2099 for four different time periods, viz., 2020-39, 2040-59, 2060-79, and 2080-99 at all the 24 locations. On the basis of historical rainfall, the months have been categorized as wet months, months with moderate rainfall and dry months. The spatial changes in rainfall patterns for all these three types of months have also been analyzed over the basin. Potential decrease of rainfall in the wet months and months with moderate rainfall and increase of rainfall in the dry months are observed for the future rainfall pattern of the Subansiri basin.

77 FR 207 - National Mentoring Month, 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-03

... Month, 2012 Proclamation 8769--National Stalking Awareness Month, 2012 #0; #0; #0; Presidential... National Mentoring Month, 2012 By the President of the United States of America A Proclamation Every day... Nation's youth for a bright future. During National Mentoring Month, we celebrate the contributions of...

Treatment options after sorafenib failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

PubMed Central

Dika, Imane El

2017-01-01

Second line therapy after failure of sorafenib continues to be under study. Prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma is measured in months, with median overall survival reaching 10.7 months with sorafenib. Because of the modest net benefit sorafenib has contributed, and rising incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in the world, continued efforts are ongoing to look for efficient upfront, second line, or combination therapies. Herein we review the most relevant to date published literature on treatment options beyond sorafenib, reported studies, ongoing investigational efforts, and possibilities for future studies in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. PMID:29151326

Predicting Future Suicide Attempts Among Adolescent and Emerging Adult Psychiatric Emergency Patients

PubMed Central

Horwitz, Adam G.; Czyz, Ewa K.; King, Cheryl A.

2014-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to longitudinally examine specific characteristics of suicidal ideation in combination with histories of suicide attempts and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) to best evaluate risk for a future attempt among high-risk adolescents and emerging adults. Method Participants in this retrospective medical record review study were 473 (53% female; 69% Caucasian) consecutive patients, ages 15–24 years (M = 19.4 years) who presented for psychiatric emergency (PE) services during a 9-month period. These patients’ medical records, including a clinician-administered Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, were coded at the index visit and at future visits occurring within the next 18 months. Logistic regression models were used to predict suicide attempts during this period. Results SES, suicidal ideation severity (i.e., intent, method), suicidal ideation intensity (i.e., frequency, controllability), a lifetime history of suicide attempt, and a lifetime history of NSSI were significant independent predictors of a future suicide attempt. Suicidal ideation added incremental validity to the prediction of future suicide attempts above and beyond the influence of a past suicide attempt, whereas a lifetime history of NSSI did not. Sex moderated the relationship between the duration of suicidal thoughts and future attempts (predictive for males, but not females). Conclusions Results suggest value in incorporating both past behaviors and current thoughts into suicide risk formulation. Furthermore, suicidal ideation duration warrants additional examination as a potential critical factor for screening assessments evaluating suicide risk among high-risk samples, particularly for males. PMID:24871489

Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials

PubMed Central

Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A.; Wilkinson, Bethany E.; Wallenstein, Gene V.

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives. RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Methods. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. Results. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P < 0.001); >20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). MME reduction by month 3 was $70 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P < 0.001); ⩾23 and 13% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). Conclusion. Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. PMID:28460083

Early food for future health: a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effect of an eHealth intervention aiming to promote healthy food habits from early childhood.

PubMed

Helle, Christine; Hillesund, Elisabet Rudjord; Omholt, Mona Linge; Øverby, Nina Cecilie

2017-09-20

Childhood overweight and obesity is a global public health challenge. Primary prevention initiatives targeting parents have been called for to encourage a positive feeding environment and healthy eating habits that may lay a good foundation for future health. At the same time, there is a need for interventions which combine accessibility and scalability with cost effectiveness. Today's parents are extensive Internet-users, but only a few randomized controlled trials have investigated the use of Internet to promote healthy eating habits in early childhood. In Early Food for Future Health we have developed and will evaluate an Internet-based tool for parents of children between 6 and 12 months, aiming to increase knowledge about infant nutrition and foster protective feeding behavior. During springtime 2016, parents of children aged between 3 and 5 months were recruited through Norwegian child health centres and announcements on Facebook. After completing the baseline questionnaire, 718 parents were individually randomized to intervention- or control group. The intervention group received monthly emails with links to an age-appropriate web-site when their child was between 6 and 12 months. The control group received ordinary care from the child health centres. The data-collection is ongoing. All participants will be followed up at ages 12 and possibly 24 and 48 months, with questionnaires relating to eating behaviour and feeding practices, food variety and diet quality. Providing guidance and counseling to parents of infants is an important task for health authorities and the public child health services. Early Food for Future health is an intervention focusing on promoting early healthy food-habits which may prevent childhood overweight and obesity. If proven to be effective, Early Food for Future Health can be used by parents and public health nurses for supplementary guidance on feeding practices and diet. This study has the potential to provide greater insight and understanding regarding early parental feeding practices, child eating behavior and the development and efficacy of Internet-based public health interventions. ISRCTN13601567 .

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

Older fallers attended to by an ambulance but not transported to hospital: a vulnerable population at high risk of future falls.

PubMed

Tiedemann, Anne; Mikolaizak, A Stefanie; Sherrington, Catherine; Segin, Kerrie; Lord, Stephen R; Close, Jacqueline C T

2013-04-01

This prospective cohort study describes older non-transported fallers seen by the Ambulance Service of New South Wales (ASNSW), quantifies the level of risk and identifies predictors of future falls and ambulance use. Participants were 262 people aged 70 years or older with a fall-related ASNSW attendance who were not transported to an emergency department. They completed a questionnaire about health, medical and physical factors previously associated with falling. Falls were monitored for six months after ambulance attendance with monthly fall calendars. Participants had a high prevalence of chronic medical conditions, functional limitations and past falls. During follow-up, 145 participants (58%) experienced 488 falls. Significant predictors of falls during follow-up were three or more falls in the past year, being unable to walk more than 10 minutes without resting, and requiring assistance for personal-care activities of daily living (ADLs). Sixty-two participants (25%) required repeat, fall-related ambulance attendance during the study. Predictors of repeat ambulance use were: 3+ falls in past year, requiring assistance for personal-care ADLs and having disabling pain in past month. Older, non-transported fallers seen by the ASNSW are a vulnerable population with high rates of chronic health conditions. Onward referral for preventive interventions may reduce future falls and ambulance service calls. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

Ovarian Cancer Prevention Program

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-10-01

replacement therapy within the last 6 months? Has the participant used non - steroidal anti - inflammatory drugs (NSAED’s) greater than 3 times per month in...contacting of family members, use of specimens for future cancer studies, registry rights, benefits, risks and costs of participation, confidentiality, and...to conduct interviews. Results of the interviews will be used to create a symptom checklist to pilot among 50 women participating in a high risk

Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in East Coast Lows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason P.; Argueso, Daniel; Fita, Lluis; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-11-01

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. Estimating the changes in ECLs in the future has a major impact on emergency response as well as water management strategies for the coastal communities on the east coast of Australia. In this study, ECLs were identified using two large-scale diagnostic quantities: isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and geostrophic vorticity (GV), which were calculated from outputs of historical and future regional climate simulations from the NSW/ACT regional climate modelling (NARCliM) project. The diagnostic results for the historical period were evaluated against a subjective ECL event database. Future simulations using a high emission scenario were examined to estimate changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of ECLs. The use of a relatively high resolution regional climate model makes this the first study to examine future changes in ECLs while resolving the full range of ECL sizes which can be as small as 100-200 km in diameter. The results indicate that it is likely that there will be fewer ECLs, with weaker intensity in the future. There could also be a seasonal shift in ECLs from cool months to warm months. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the water security on the east coast of Australia.

Developing Tools and Technologies to Meet MSR Planetary Protection Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Ying

2013-01-01

This paper describes the tools and technologies that need to be developed for a Caching Rover mission in order to meet the overall Planetary Protection requirements for future Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign. This is the result of an eight-month study sponsored by the Mars Exploration Program Office. The goal of this study is to provide a future MSR project with a focused technology development plan for achieving the necessary planetary protection and sample integrity capabilities for a Mars Caching Rover mission.

Climate Change Impact on Water Balance at the Chipola River Watershed in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffen, J. M.; Chen, X.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.

2013-12-01

As the largest tributary to the Apalachicola River, the Chipola River originates in southern Alabama, flows through the Florida Panhandle and drains into the Gulf of Mexico. The Chipola watershed is located in an intermediate climate environment with an aridity index of approximately 1.0. However, climate change affects the hydrologic cycle of Chipola River watershed at various temporal and spatial scales. Studying the effects of climate variations is of great importance for water and environmental management purposes in this watershed. This research is mainly focused on assessing climate change impact on the partitioning of rainfall and the following runoff generation in Chipola watershed, from long-term mean annual to inter-annual and to seasonal and monthly scales. A comprehensive water balance model at inter-annual scale is built in this study based on Budyko's framework, two-stage runoff theory and proportionality hypothesis. The inter-annual scale model considers the impact of storage change, seasonality and landscape controls, which are normally assumed to be negligible on a long-term scale. The model is applied to the Chipola River Watershed in Florida to project future water balance pattern with the input from a Regional Climate Model projection. Based on the projection results: evaporation will increase in the future in all 12 months; runoff will increase only in dry months of July to October, while significantly decrease in wet months of December to April; storage change will increase in wet months of January to April, while decrease in the dry months of August to November.

Assessing the social and environmental determinants of pertussis epidemics in Queensland, Australia: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis.

PubMed

Huang, X; Lambert, S; Lau, C; Soares Magalhaes, R J; Marquess, J; Rajmokan, M; Milinovich, G; Hu, W

2017-04-01

Pertussis epidemics have displayed substantial spatial heterogeneity in countries with high socioeconomic conditions and high vaccine coverage. This study aims to investigate the relationship between pertussis risk and socio-environmental factors on the spatio-temporal variation underlying pertussis infection. We obtained daily case numbers of pertussis notifications from Queensland Health, Australia by postal area, for the period January 2006 to December 2012. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model was used to quantify the relationship between monthly pertussis incidence and socio-environmental factors. The socio-environmental factors included monthly mean minimum temperature (MIT), monthly mean vapour pressure (VAP), Queensland school calendar pattern (SCP), and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA). An increase in pertussis incidence was observed from 2006 to 2010 and a slight decrease from 2011 to 2012. Spatial analyses showed pertussis incidence across Queensland postal area to be low and more spatially homogeneous during 2006-2008; incidence was higher and more spatially heterogeneous after 2009. The results also showed that the average decrease in monthly pertussis incidence was 3·1% [95% credible interval (CrI) 1·3-4·8] for each 1 °C increase in monthly MIT, while average increase in monthly pertussis incidences were 6·2% (95% CrI 0·4-12·4) and 2% (95% CrI 1-3) for SCP periods and for each 10-unit increase in SEIFA, respectively. This study demonstrated that pertussis transmission is significantly associated with MIT, SEIFA, and SCP. Mapping derived from this work highlights the potential for future investigation and areas for focusing future control strategies.

17 CFR 31.16 - Monthly reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... of business on the last business day of the month for: (i) All customer accounts, and (ii) Separately... National Futures Association, by the tenth business day of the month following the month covered by the... customers during the month for: (i) All customer accounts, and (ii) Separately for commercial leverage...

Retrospective data collection of psoriasis treatment with fumaric acid esters in children and adolescents in Germany (KIDS FUTURE study).

PubMed

Reich, Kristian; Hartl, Christoph; Gambichler, Thilo; Zschocke, Ina

2016-01-01

Given that there is no standard systemic treatment for children and adolescents with plaque psoriasis, this non-interventional, multicenter, retrospective study collected data on the efficacy and safety of long-term treatment with fumaric acid esters (FAEs) in this particular patient group. In patients younger than 18 years of age at the start of FAE treatment, data on efficacy and safety was retrospectively collected for at least 36 months. Data from 127 patients (aged 6-17 years) was collected for treatment durations of up to 60 months. Physician's Global Assessment, Psoriasis Area and Severity Index, and Body Surface Area showed marked improvement in the first six months. After 36 months, these parameters had, on average, improved by up to two-thirds of baseline values. Thirty-seven patients experienced at least one adverse event (AE), which was FAE-related in 36 individuals. Three AEs (proteinuria (one case), flushing (two cases)) persisted during the observation period while on treatment. Fifteen AEs led to the discontinuation of therapy; nearly all of these cases were related to gastrointestinal disorders. The KIDS FUTURE study - for the first time - included a larger population of children and adolescents with psoriasis who were treated with FAEs. The data obtained suggests that long-term FAE therapy in this patient group may be effective and safe. The results are currently being verified in an ongoing clinical study. © 2015 Deutsche Dermatologische Gesellschaft (DDG). Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Endothelial Progenitor Cell Levels Predict Future Physical Function: An Exploratory Analysis From the VA Enhanced Fitness Study.

PubMed

Povsic, Thomas J; Sloane, Richard; Pieper, Carl F; Pearson, Megan P; Peterson, Eric D; Cohen, Harvey J; Morey, Miriam C

2016-03-01

Levels of circulating progenitor cells (CPCs) are depleted with aging and chronic injury and are associated with level of physical functioning; however, little is known about the correlation of CPCs with longer-term measures of physical capabilities. We sought to determine the association of CPCs with future levels of physical function and with changes in physical function over time. CPCs were measured in 117 participants with impaired glucose tolerance in the Enhanced Fitness clinical trial based on the cell surface markers CD34 and CD133 and aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) activity at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months. Physical function was assessed using usual and rapid gait speed, 6-minute walk distance, chair stand time, and SF-36 physical functioning score and reassessed at 3 and 12 months after clinical intervention. Higher baseline levels of CD133(+), CD34(+), CD133(+)CD34(+), and ALDH(br) were each highly predictive of faster gait speed and longer distance walked in 6 minutes at both 3 and 12 months. These associations remained robust after adjustment for age, body mass index, baseline covariates, and inflammation and were independent of interventions to improve physical fitness. Further, higher CPC levels predicted greater improvements in usual and rapid gait speed over 1 year. Baseline CPC levels are associated not only with baseline mobility but also with future physical function, including changes in gait speed. These findings suggest that CPC measurement may be useful as a marker of both current and future physiologic aging and functional decline. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed

Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Schuurman, Gregor W; Monahan, William B; Ziesler, Pamela S

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979-2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041-2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67-77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8-23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13-31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed Central

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Monahan, William B.; Ziesler, Pamela S.

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67–77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8–23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13–31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation. PMID:26083361

Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States

Treesearch

Kai Duan; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Peter V. Caldwell; Erika C. Cohen; Shanlei Sun; Heather D. Aldridge; Decheng Zhou; Liangxia Zhang; Yang Zhang

2017-01-01

This study examines the relative roles of cli- matic variables in altering annual runoff in the contermi- nous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century, using a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress In- dex model, WaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from 20 Coupled Model Intercompar- ison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)...

AIDS Health Locus of Control, Self-Efficacy for Safer Sexual Practices, and Future Time Orientation as Predictors of Condom Use in African American College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Myron J.; Dillon, Frank R.

2005-01-01

This study examined the relationship between self-reported frequency of condom use (by self or partner during the past 6 months and lifetime), locus of control, self-efficacy, and future time orientation among African American college students who were single and sexually active during the past year. Data were collected from 106 undergraduate…

78 FR 26215 - Jewish American Heritage Month, 2013

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-03

... American Heritage Month, 2013 By the President of the United States of America A Proclamation In his second... American shores. We take this month to celebrate the progress that followed, and the bright future that... May 2013 as Jewish American Heritage Month. I call upon all Americans to visit www.JewishHeritageMonth...

78 FR 54747 - National Wilderness Month, 2013

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-06

... National Wilderness Month, 2013 By the President of the United States of America A Proclamation In... landscapes, leaving their beauty unmarred. This month, we uphold that proud tradition and resolve that future... businesses and supporting American jobs. During National Wilderness Month, we reflect on the profound...

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Joel D.; Lee, Mihye; Kinney, Patrick L.; Yang, Suijia; Mills, David; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Streeter, Richard; St. Juliana, Alexis; Peers, Jennifer;

A core competency-based objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) can predict future resident performance.

PubMed

Wallenstein, Joshua; Heron, Sheryl; Santen, Sally; Shayne, Philip; Ander, Douglas

2010-10-01

This study evaluated the ability of an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) administered in the first month of residency to predict future resident performance in the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) core competencies. Eighteen Postgraduate Year 1 (PGY-1) residents completed a five-station OSCE in the first month of postgraduate training. Performance was graded in each of the ACGME core competencies. At the end of 18 months of training, faculty evaluations of resident performance in the emergency department (ED) were used to calculate a cumulative clinical evaluation score for each core competency. The correlations between OSCE scores and clinical evaluation scores at 18 months were assessed on an overall level and in each core competency. There was a statistically significant correlation between overall OSCE scores and overall clinical evaluation scores (R = 0.48, p < 0.05) and in the individual competencies of patient care (R = 0.49, p < 0.05), medical knowledge (R = 0.59, p < 0.05), and practice-based learning (R = 0.49, p < 0.05). No correlation was noted in the systems-based practice, interpersonal and communication skills, or professionalism competencies. An early-residency OSCE has the ability to predict future postgraduate performance on a global level and in specific core competencies. Used appropriately, such information can be a valuable tool for program directors in monitoring residents' progress and providing more tailored guidance. © 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Climate risks on potato yield in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Lall, Upmanu

2016-04-01

The yield of potatoes is affected by water and temperature during the growing season. We study the impact of a suite of climate variables on potato yield at country level. More than ten climate variables related to the growth of potato are considered, including the seasonal rainfall and temperature, but also extreme conditions at different averaging periods from daily to monthly. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to jointly consider the risk of heat stress, cold stress, wet and drought. Future climate risks are investigated through the projection of future climate data. This study contributes to assess the risks of present and future climate risks on potatoes yield, especially the risks of extreme events, which could be used to guide better sourcing strategy and ensure food security in the future.

A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajipriya, N.

2012-10-01

The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

Dose-Response Relationship between Antimicrobial Drugs and Livestock-Associated MRSA in Pig Farming1

PubMed Central

Dohmen, Wietske; Bos, Marian E.H.; Verstappen, Koen M.; Houben, Manon; Wagenaar, Jaap A.; Heederik, Dick J.J.

2015-01-01

The farming community can be a vehicle for introduction of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) in hospitals. During 2011–2013, an 18-month longitudinal study aimed at reducing the prevalence of LA-MRSA was conducted on 36 pig farms in the Netherlands. Evaluations every 6 months showed a slight decrease in MRSA prevalence in animals and a stable prevalence in farmers and family members. Antimicrobial use, expressed as defined daily dosages per animal per year, decreased 44% during the study period and was associated with declining MRSA prevalence in pigs. MRSA carriage in animals was substantially higher at farms using cephalosporins. Antimicrobial use remained strongly associated with LA-MRSA in humans regardless of the level of animal contact. A risk factor analysis outlined potential future interventions for LA-MRSA control. These results should encourage animal and public health authorities to maintain their efforts in reducing antimicrobial use in livestock and ask for future controlled intervention studies. PMID:25989456

Local recruitment experience in a study comparing the effectiveness of a low glycaemic index diet with a low calorie healthy eating approach at achieving weight loss and reducing the risk of endometrial cancer in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

PubMed

Atiomo, William; Read, Anna; Golding, Mary; Silcocks, Paul; Razali, Nuguelis; Sarkar, Sabitabrata; Hardiman, Paul; Thornton, Jim

2009-09-01

Feasibility of a clinical-trial comparing a low-glycaemic diet with a low-calorie healthy eating approach at achieving weight loss and reducing the risk of endometrial cancer in women with PCOS. A pilot Randomised-Controlled-Trial using different recruitment strategies. A University Hospital in the United Kingdom. Women seen at specialist gynaecology clinics over a 12 month period in one University Hospital, and women self identified through a website and posters. Potential recruits were assessed for eligibility, gave informed consent, randomised, treated and assessed as in the definitive trial. Eligibility and recruitment rates, compliance with the allocated diet for 6 months and with clinical assessments, blood tests, pelvic ultrasound scans and endometrial biopsies. 1433 new and 2598 follow up patients were seen in 153 gynaecology clinics for over 12 months. 441 (11%) potentially eligible women were identified, 19 (0.4%) of whom met the trial entry criteria. Eleven consented to take part, of which 8 (73%) completed the study. Planned future trials on over-weight women with PCOS should be multicentre and should incorporate primary care. This data will help other researchers plan and calculate the sample size and potential recruitment rates in future clinical trials in PCOS. The results will also be useful for inclusion in future meta-analyses.

Time perspective and weight management behaviors in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes: a mediational analysis.

PubMed

Hall, Peter A; Fong, Geoffrey T; Cheng, Alice Y

2012-12-01

The primary objective of the current study was to examine the extent to which domain-specific time perspective predicts weight management behaviors (dietary behavior and physical activity) among those newly diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes. A secondary objective was to test potential mediators of the hypothesized effect (behavioral intention, self-efficacy and control beliefs). A total of 204 adults newly diagnosed (≤6 months) with Type 2 diabetes participated in the study, which included a baseline assessment of domain-general and domain-specific time perspective, as well as strength of intention to perform two weight-management behaviors (dietary choice and physical activity); both weight-management behaviors were assessed again at 6 month follow-up. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed a prospective association between domain-specific time perspective and uptake of weight management behaviors. Individuals with newly diagnosed T2DM possessing a future-oriented time perspective reported making less frequent fatty food choices and greater increases in physical activity over the 6-month follow-up interval. These effects were selectively mediated by intention strength, and not competing social cognitive variables. For both behaviors, the total effects and meditational models were robust to adjustments for demographics, body composition and disease variables. A future-oriented time perspective is prospectively associated with superior uptake of weight management behaviors among those with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes. The facilitating effect of future-oriented thinking appears to occur via enhanced strength of intentions to perform weight management behaviors.

Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for PTSD and Depression Symptoms Reduces Risk for Future Intimate Partner Violence among Interpersonal Trauma Survivors

PubMed Central

Iverson, Katherine M.; Gradus, Jaimie L.; Resick, Patricia A.; Suvak, Michael K.; Smith, Kamala F.; Monson, Candice M.

2010-01-01

Objective Women who develop symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression subsequent to interpersonal trauma are at heightened risk for future intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization. Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is effective in reducing PTSD and depression symptoms, yet limited research has investigated the effectiveness of cognitive-behavior therapy in reducing risk for future IPV among interpersonal trauma survivors. Method This study examined the effect of CBT for PTSD and depressive symptoms on the risk of future IPV victimization in a sample of women survivors of interpersonal violence. The current sample included 150 women diagnosed with PTSD secondary to an array of interpersonal traumatic events who were participating in a randomized clinical trial of different forms of cognitive processing therapy for the treatment of PTSD. Participants were assessed at nine time points as part of the larger trial: pre-treatment, six times during treatment, post-treatment, and at 6-month follow-up. Results As hypothesized, reductions in both PTSD and depressive symptoms during treatment were associated with a decreased likelihood of IPV victimization at a 6-month follow-up even after controlling for recent IPV (i.e., IPV from a current partner within the year prior to beginning the study) and prior interpersonal traumas. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of identifying and treating PTSD and depressive symptoms among interpersonal trauma survivors as a method for reducing risk for future IPV. PMID:21341889

76 FR 11929 - Irish-American Heritage Month, 2011

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-03

...-American Heritage Month, 2011 By the President of the United States of America A Proclamation Our diverse... future. During Irish-American Heritage Month, we honor the contributions Irish Americans have made, and...-American Heritage Month and St. Patrick's Day, our Nation pays tribute to the proud lineage passed down to...

Pacific Islands Families: First Two Years of Life Study--design and methodology.

PubMed

Paterson, Janis; Tukuitonga, Colin; Abbott, Max; Feehan, Michael; Silva, Phil; Percival, Teuila; Carter, Sarnia; Cowley-Malcolm, Esther; Borrows, Jim; Williams, Maynard; Schluter, Philip

2006-01-27

Knowledge about the health, psychosocial, and behavioural characteristics of Pacific peoples with young children resident in New Zealand is limited. The Pacific Islands Families: First Two Years of Life (PIF) Study was designed to redress this knowledge gap. This paper describes the design and methodology of the PIF Study. Mothers of Pacific infants born at Middlemore Hospital between 15 March and 17 December 2000 were recruited. Maternal home interviews covering sociodemographic, cultural, environmental, child development, family and household dynamics, childcare, lifestyle, and health issues were undertaken at approximately 6-weeks, 12-months, and 24-months postpartum. Paternal home interviews and child development assessments were conducted at approximately 12-months and 24-months postpartum. Information from Middlemore's Hospital Discharge Summary records and Plunket's 6-week and 6-month assessments was also captured. 1708 mothers were identified, 1657 were invited to participate, 1590 (96%) consented to a home visit; and, of these, 1,477 (93%) were eligible for the PIF study. Of those eligible, 1,376 (93%) participated at 6-weeks, 1224 (83%) participated at 12-months, and 1144 (77%) participated at 24-months. No important differential attrition was observed. Paternal interviews and child assessments were conducted on 825 fathers and 1241 infants at 12-months and on 757 fathers and 1064 children at 24-months. The PIF study is a large, scientifically and culturally robust longitudinal study that has achieved respectable participation rates in a historically hard-to-reach population. We believe that results from this study will inform future policy development within New Zealand.

Water-balance simulations of runoff and reservoir storage for the Upper Helmand watershed and Kajakai Reservoir, central Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2007-01-01

A study was performed to provide information on monthly historical and hypothetical future runoff for the Upper Helmand watershed and reservoir storage in Kajakai Reservoir that could be used by Afghanistan authorities to make economic and demographic decisions concerning reservoir design and operation, reservoir sedimentation, and development along the Helmand River. Estimated reservoir volume at the current spillway elevation of 1,033.5 meters decreased by about 365 million cubic meters from 1968 to 2006 because of sedimentation. Water-balance simulations indicated a good fit between modeled and recorded monthly runoff at the two gaging stations in the watershed for water years 1956-79 and indicated an excellent fit between modeled and recorded monthly changes in Kajakai Reservoir storage for water years 1956-79. Future simulations, which included low starting reservoir water levels and a spillway raised to an elevation of 1,045 meters, indicated that the reservoir is likely to fill within 2 years. Although Kajakai Reservoir is likely to fill quickly, multiyear deficits may still occur. If future downstream irrigation demand doubles but future precipitation, temperature, and reservoir sedimentation remain similar to historical conditions, the reservoir would have more than a 50-percent chance of being full during April or May of a typical year. Future simulations with a 10-percent reduction in precipitation indicated that supply deficits would occur more than 1 in 4 years, on average, during August, September, or October. The reservoir would be full during April or May fewer than 1 in 2 years, on average, and multiyear supply deficits could occur. Increased sedimentation had little effect on reservoir levels during April through July, but the frequency of deficits increased substantially during September and October.

Promoting "Healthy Futures" to Reduce Risk Behaviors in Urban Youth: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Jones, Vanya; Cheng, Tina L

2015-09-01

There is increasing evidence of the interconnection between educational and health outcomes. Unfortunately wide disparities exist by both socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity in educational and vocational success. This study sought to promote urban youths' career readiness as a way to reduce involvement in risk behaviors. Two hundred primarily African-American youth (ages 14-21) were recruited from a pediatric primary care clinic. Youth randomized to the intervention received three motivational interviewing sessions focused around expectations and planning for the future. Baseline and 6-month follow-up assessments included measures of career readiness and risk behavior involvement (i.e., physical fighting, alcohol and marijuana use). At 6-months, youth randomized to the intervention condition showed increased confidence in their ability to perform the behaviors needed to reach their college/career goals. Additionally, youth randomized to the intervention arm showed decreased fighting behavior (adjusted rate ratio: .27) and marijuana use (adjusted rate ratio: .61). Assisting urban youth in thinking and planning about their future holds promise as a way to reduce their involvement in risk behaviors. This study also demonstrated that motivational interviewing could be used to promote positive behaviors (i.e., career readiness).

Baseline dental plaque activity, mutans streptococci culture, and future caries experience in children.

PubMed

Hallett, Kerrod B; O'Rourke, Peter K

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate a chairside caries risk assessment protocol utilizing a caries prediction instrument, adenosine triphosphate (ATP) activity in dental plaque, mutans streptococci (MS) culture, and routine dental examination in five- to 10-year-old children at two regional Australian schools with high caries experience. Clinical indicators for future caries were assessed at baseline examination using a standardized prediction instrument. Plaque ATP activity was measured directly in relative light units (RLU) using a bioluminescence meter, and MS culture data were recorded. Each child's dentition was examined clinically and radiographically, and caries experience was recorded using enamel white spot lesions and decayed, missing, and filled surfaces for primary and permanent teeth indices. Univariate one-way analysis of variance between selected clinical indicators, ATP activity, MS count at baseline, and future new caries activity was performed, and a generalized linear model for prediction of new caries activity at 24 months was constructed. Future new caries activity was significantly associated with the presence of visible cavitations, reduced saliva flow, and orthodontic appliances at baseline (R(2)=0.2, P<.001). Baseline plaque adenosine triphosphate activity and mutans streptococci counts were not significantly associated with caries activity at 24 months.

Drought variability and change across the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coll, Joan Ramon; Aguilar, Enric

2015-04-01

Drought variability and change is assessed in this study across the Iberian Peninsula along the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century using state of the art drought indices: the Sc-PDSI, the SPI and the SPEI. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 24 time-series regularly spread over Iberian Peninsula are quality controlled and also homogenized in a monthly scale to create the Monthly Iberian Temperature and Precipitation Series (MITPS) for the period 1906-2010. The Sc-PDSI, the 12-month SPI and 12-month SPEI are computed on a monthly basis using the newly MITPS dataset to identify dry and wet conditions across time. Precipitation data is only required to compute SPI, but potential evapotranspiration (PET) is also needed to perform the Sc-PDSI and SPEI, which is estimated using the Tornthwaite's method. The analysis conducted in this study confirms that drought conditions are worsening for most of the Iberian Peninsula across time strongly induced by global warming especially during the last three decades. All drought indices have found a drying trend in the Pyrenees, Ebro basin, central Iberia and in the south and south-eastern area while a wetting trend is identified in the western and in the north-western region. Future projections also indicate a clear increase in hydrological drought conditions along the 21st century, thus, water saving and the application of effective water management strategies will be crucial to minimize the impact of hydrological droughts over the Iberian Peninsula into the near future. KEY WORDS: Drought, climate change, Iberian Peninsula, drought indices.

Assessment of BSRN radiation records for the computation of monthly means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roesch, A.; Wild, M.; Ohmura, A.; Dutton, E. G.; Long, C. N.; Zhang, T.

2011-02-01

The integrity of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) radiation monthly averages are assessed by investigating the impact on monthly means due to the frequency of data gaps caused by missing or discarded high time resolution data. The monthly statistics, especially means, are considered to be important and useful values for climate research, model performance evaluations and for assessing the quality of satellite (time- and space-averaged) data products. The study investigates the spread in different algorithms that have been applied for the computation of monthly means from 1-min values. The paper reveals that the computation of monthly means from 1-min observations distinctly depends on the method utilized to account for the missing data. The intra-method difference generally increases with an increasing fraction of missing data. We found that a substantial fraction of the radiation fluxes observed at BSRN sites is either missing or flagged as questionable. The percentage of missing data is 4.4%, 13.0%, and 6.5% for global radiation, direct shortwave radiation, and downwelling longwave radiation, respectively. Most flagged data in the shortwave are due to nighttime instrumental noise and can reasonably be set to zero after correcting for thermal offsets in the daytime data. The study demonstrates that the handling of flagged data clearly impacts on monthly mean estimates obtained with different methods. We showed that the spread of monthly shortwave fluxes is generally clearly higher than for downwelling longwave radiation. Overall, BSRN observations provide sufficient accuracy and completeness for reliable estimates of monthly mean values. However, the value of future data could be further increased by reducing the frequency of data gaps and the number of outliers. It is shown that two independent methods for accounting for the diurnal and seasonal variations in the missing data permit consistent monthly means to within less than 1 W m-2 in most cases. The authors suggest using a standardized method for the computation of monthly means which addresses diurnal variations in the missing data in order to avoid a mismatch of future published monthly mean radiation fluxes from BSRN. The application of robust statistics would probably lead to less biased results for data records with frequent gaps and/or flagged data and outliers. The currently applied empirical methods should, therefore, be completed by the development of robust methods.

Coping strategies as mediators in relation to resilience and posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Thompson, Nicholas J; Fiorillo, Devika; Rothbaum, Barbara O; Ressler, Kerry J; Michopoulos, Vasiliki

2018-01-01

Resilience has been shown to protect against the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the aftermath of trauma. However, it remains unclear how coping strategies influence resilience and PTSD development in the acute aftermath of trauma. The current prospective, longitudinal study investigated the relationship between resilience, coping strategies, and the development of chronic PTSD symptoms. A sample of patients was recruited from an emergency department following a Criterion A trauma. Follow-up assessments were completed at 1-, 3-, and 6-months post-trauma to assess PTSD symptom development (N = 164). Resilience at 1-month positively correlated with the majority of active coping strategies (all p < .05) and negatively correlated with the majority of avoidant coping strategies (all p < .05), as well as future PTSD symptoms (p < .001). Additionally, all avoidant coping strategies, including social withdrawal, positively correlated with future PTSD symptoms (all p < .01). After controlling for demographic and clinical variables, social withdrawal at 3-months fully mediated the relationship between resilience at 1-month and PTSD symptoms at 6-months. Limitations include participant drop out and the conceptual overlap between avoidant coping and PTSD. These data suggest that resilience and social withdrawal may be possible therapeutic targets for mitigating the development of chronic PTSD in the aftermath of trauma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A; Wilkinson, Bethany E; Wallenstein, Gene V

2017-08-01

RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P < 0.001); >20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). MME reduction by month 3 was $70 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P < 0.001); ⩾23 and 13% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P < 0.001 vs placebo). Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.

Arizona Research Coordinating Unit, Second Annual Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Arthur M.

The Arizona Research Coordinating Unit has concentrated its efforts during the past 18 months on a study of engineering technology which was published in March of 1968. A second major project is a study of vocational-technical education in the state to be used as a basis for future planning. Other activities included assistance with several…

The mental health impact of terrorism in Israel: a repeat cross-sectional study of Arabs and Jews.

PubMed

Gelkopf, M; Solomon, Z; Berger, R; Bleich, A

2008-05-01

Since September 2000 Israeli society has been subjected to numerous deadly terror attacks. Few studies have studied the comparative mental health vulnerability of minorities and majorities to continuous terror attacks. Two telephone surveys (N = 512 and 501) on two distinct representative samples of the Israeli population after 19 months and after 44 months of terror. The Arab minority and Jewish majority were compared on measures of exposure to terrorism, posttraumatic stress symptomatology, feeling depressed, coping, sense of safety, future orientation, and previous traumatic experiences. After 19 months of terrorist attacks Arab Israelis and Jewish Israelis reacted roughly similarly to the situation, however after 44 months of terror, posttraumatic symptom disorder in the Arab population increased three-fold, posttraumatic symptomatology doubled and resiliency almost disappeared. We suggest that certain conditions inherent to political conflict situations may potentially put minorities at risk and may only be observable as terrorism-related stressors become chronic.

The stability of 'food addiction' as assessed by the Yale Food Addiction Scale in a non-clinical population over 18-months.

PubMed

Pursey, Kirrilly M; Collins, Clare E; Stanwell, Peter; Burrows, Tracy L

2016-01-01

The Yale Food Addiction Scale (YFAS) is a widely used tool to assess the behavioural indicators of addictive-like eating. No studies, however, have used a longitudinal design to determine whether these addictive-like eating behaviours are a stable or transient phenomenon in a community-based population. This study aimed to evaluate whether food addiction Diagnosis and Symptom scores as assessed by the YFAS remain stable over 18-months in a non-clinical population. Young adults aged 18-35 years were recruited from the community to a web-based survey in 2013. The survey included demographics, anthropometrics and the YFAS. Participants who volunteered to be recontacted for future research were invited to complete the same survey 18-months later. The YFAS scoring outputs Diagnosis and Symptom scores were tested for agreement and reliability between the two time points. Of the 303 participants who completed the original survey and agreed to be recontacted, 69 participants (22.8% of those recontacted, 94% female, 67% normal weight at baseline) completed the 18-month follow-up survey. At baseline, thirteen participants met the YFAS predefined criteria for Diagnosis, while eleven participants met these criteria at the 18-month follow-up. YFAS Diagnosis was found to have moderate agreement [K = .50, 95% CI (.23, .77)] between the two time points while Symptom scores had good agreement [K = .70, 95% CI (.54, .83)]. Intraclass correlation coefficients were interpreted as moderate over the 18-month period for both the Diagnosis [ICC = .71, 95% CI (.45, .88)] and Symptom scores [ICC = .72, 95% CI (.58, .82)]. YFAS assessed food addiction Diagnosis and Symptom scores were found to be relatively stable over 18-months in a non-clinical population of predominantly female, young adults. Future research is required to determine the impact of behavioural weight loss interventions on YFAS assessed addictive-like eating. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rumination and Loneliness Independently Predict Six-Month Later Depression Symptoms among Chinese Elderly in Nursing Homes.

PubMed

Gan, Pei; Xie, Yan; Duan, Wenjie; Deng, Qing; Yu, Xiuli

2015-01-01

Previous studies conducted in Western countries independently demonstrated that loneliness and rumination are remarkable risk factors of depression among the elderly in both community and nursing homes. However, knowledge on the relationship between these three constructs among the elderly in Eastern countries is scarce. The current study aims to determine the relationship between loneliness, rumination, and depression among Chinese elderly in nursing homes. A total of 71 elderly participants with an average age of 82.49 years completed this six-month longitudinal study. Physical reports indicated that none of the participants were clinically depressed before the study. At Time 1, their loneliness and rumination were measured using UCLA-8 Loneliness Scale and Ruminative Responses Scale. Six months later, the participants completed the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale to assess depressive symptoms (Time 2). Multiple regression analysis revealed that both loneliness and rumination at Time 1 were the predictors of depression symptoms at Time 2 among the Chinese elderly in nursing homes. However, in the mediation analysis using PROCESS, the indirect effect between loneliness at Time 1 and depression symptoms at Time 2 was insignificant. Results suggest that previous loneliness and rumination thinking are predictors of future depression symptoms among the Chinese elderly in nursing homes. However, the insignificant mediation further suggests that the differences between loneliness and rumination should be explored in future studies. Findings have important implications for mental health professionals in nursing homes in China.

Rumination and Loneliness Independently Predict Six-Month Later Depression Symptoms among Chinese Elderly in Nursing Homes

PubMed Central

Gan, Pei; Xie, Yan; Duan, Wenjie; Deng, Qing; Yu, Xiuli

2015-01-01

Background Previous studies conducted in Western countries independently demonstrated that loneliness and rumination are remarkable risk factors of depression among the elderly in both community and nursing homes. However, knowledge on the relationship between these three constructs among the elderly in Eastern countries is scarce. The current study aims to determine the relationship between loneliness, rumination, and depression among Chinese elderly in nursing homes. Methods A total of 71 elderly participants with an average age of 82.49 years completed this six-month longitudinal study. Physical reports indicated that none of the participants were clinically depressed before the study. At Time 1, their loneliness and rumination were measured using UCLA-8 Loneliness Scale and Ruminative Responses Scale. Six months later, the participants completed the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale to assess depressive symptoms (Time 2). Results Multiple regression analysis revealed that both loneliness and rumination at Time 1 were the predictors of depression symptoms at Time 2 among the Chinese elderly in nursing homes. However, in the mediation analysis using PROCESS, the indirect effect between loneliness at Time 1 and depression symptoms at Time 2 was insignificant. Conclusions Results suggest that previous loneliness and rumination thinking are predictors of future depression symptoms among the Chinese elderly in nursing homes. However, the insignificant mediation further suggests that the differences between loneliness and rumination should be explored in future studies. Findings have important implications for mental health professionals in nursing homes in China. PMID:26334298

Perceived stress, disturbed sleep, and cognitive impairments in patients with work-related stress complaints: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Eskildsen, Anita; Fentz, Hanne Nørr; Andersen, Lars Peter; Pedersen, Anders Degn; Kristensen, Simon Bang; Andersen, Johan Hviid

2017-07-01

Patients on sick leave due to work-related stress often present with cognitive impairments as well as sleep disturbances. The aim of this longitudinal study was to examine the role of perceived stress and sleep disturbances in the longitudinal development in cognitive impairments in a group of patients with prolonged work-related stress (N = 60) during a period of 12 months following initial professional care-seeking. Objective cognitive impairments (neuropsychological tests) were measured on two occasions - at initial professional care-seeking and at 12-month follow-up. Questionnaires on perceived stress, sleep disturbances, and cognitive complaints were completed seven times during the 12 months which facilitated multilevel analysis with segregation of within-person (change) and between-person (baseline level) components of the time-varying predictors (perceived stress and sleep disturbances). Change in perceived stress was associated with concurrent and subsequent change in self-reported cognitive complaints over the period of 12 months and to a lesser extent the change in performance on neuropsychological tests of processing speed from baseline to 12-month follow-up. Change in sleep disturbances was also associated with concurrent and subsequent change in self-reported cognitive complaints over the 12 months but not with change on neuropsychological test performance. Although the mechanism behind the improvement in cognitive impairments in patients with work-related stress should be further explored in future studies, the results could suggest that improvement in cognitive impairments is partly mediated by decreasing levels of perceived stress and, to a lesser extent, decreasing levels of sleep disturbances. Lay summary This study examines the role of perceived stress and sleep disturbances in respect to the development of cognitive impairments (e.g. memory and concentration) in a group of patients with work-related stress. We found that change in cognitive impairments seems to be partly explained by change in perceived stress and, to a lesser extent, sleep disturbances over time. This could suggest that cognitive impairments can be reduced by stress management interventions which aim to reduce perceived stress and sleep disturbances but future studies are needed to confirm this interpretation.

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

PubMed Central

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901–2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011–2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data. PMID:27275583

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Shrestha, Manoj K; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne

2017-07-15

Mediterranean catchments experience already high seasonal variability alternating between dry and wet periods, and are more vulnerable to future climate and land use changes. Quantification of catchment response under future changes is particularly crucial for better water resources management. This study assessed the combined effects of future climate and land use changes on water yield, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads of the Mediterranean Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia by means of the eco-hydrological model SWAT. Six different global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and a hypothetical land use change were used for future simulations. The climate models suggested a high degree of uncertainty, varying seasonally, in both flow and nutrient loads; however, a decreasing trend was observed. Average monthly TN and TP load decreased up to -55% and -56% respectively and were found to be dependent on flow magnitude. The annual and seasonal water yield and nutrient loads may only slightly be affected by envisaged land uses, but significantly altered by intermediate and high emission scenarios, predominantly during the spring season. The combined scenarios indicated the possibility of declining flow in future but nutrient enrichment in summer months, originating mainly from the land use scenario, that may elevate the risk of algal blooms in downstream drinking water reservoir. Hence, careful planning of future water resources in a Mediterranean catchment requires the assessment of combined effects of multiple climate models and land use scenarios on both water quantity and quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Therapeutic Intervention in Sepsis with Antibody to Endotoxin: Is There a Future

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

Within the last 24 months a number of studies that tested thle efficacy of immunologic reagents in the treat- ment of sepsis were concluded. Amonug...raised the question whlethier the usc of anti-eIlndotxinl alltil)(Idit. il tfie treatient of sepsis was still a1 viable concept. 5The question was...intervention in sepsis with antibody to endotoxin: is there a future? , olity Codes Avail and/or Dist Special A. S. Cross. S. Opal -/ Department of

Emergency Department Youth Patients With Suicidal Ideation or Attempts: Predicting Suicide Attempts Through 18 Months of Follow-Up.

PubMed

Rosenbaum Asarnow, Joan; Berk, Michele; Zhang, Lily; Wang, Peter; Tang, Lingqi

2017-10-01

This prospective study of suicidal emergency department (ED) patients (ages 10-18) examined the timing, cumulative probability, and predictors of suicide attempts through 18 months of follow-up. The cumulative probability of attempts was as follows: .15 at 6 months, .22 at 1 year, and .24 by 18 months. One attempt was fatal, yielding a death rate of .006. Significant predictors of suicide attempt risk included a suicide attempt at ED presentation (vs. suicidal ideation only), nonsuicidal self-injurious behavior, and low levels of delinquent symptoms. Results underscore the importance of both prior suicide attempts and nonsuicidal self-harm as risk indicators for future and potentially lethal suicide attempts. © 2016 The American Association of Suicidology.

Nuclear physics research operation. Monthly report, November 1958

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faulkner, J.E.

1958-12-10

This report is a summary of projects worked on in support of the production reactors at Hanford. The projects include criticality studies, from tasks associated with fuel element reprocessing to shipments of slightly enriched uranium. They include studies of neutron cross sections for different reactions and neutron flux measurements in different reactor locations, as well as design studies for future reactor projects.

Effects of work ability and health promoting interventions for women with musculoskeletal symptoms: A 9-month prospective study

PubMed Central

Larsson, Agneta; Karlqvist, Lena; Gard, Gunvor

2008-01-01

Background Women working in the public human service sector in 'overstrained' situations run the risk of musculoskeletal symptoms and long-term sick leave. In order to maintain the level of health and work ability and strengthen the potential resources for health, it is important that employees gain greater control over decisions and actions affecting their health – a process associated with the concept of self-efficacy. The aim of this study was to describe the effects of a self-efficacy intervention and an ergonomic education intervention for women with musculoskeletal symptoms, employed in the public sector. Methods The design of the study was a 9-month prospective study describing the effects of two interventions, a comprehensive self-efficacy intervention (n = 21) and an ergonomic education intervention (n = 21). Data were obtained by a self-report questionnaire on health- and work ability-related factors at baseline, and at ten weeks and nine months follow-up. Within-group differences over time were analysed. Results Over the time period studied there were small magnitudes of improvements within each group. Within the self-efficacy intervention group positive effects in perceived work ability were shown. The ergonomic education group showed increased positive beliefs about future work ability and a more frequent use of pain coping strategies. Conclusion Both interventions showed positive effects on women with musculoskeletal symptoms, but in different ways. Future research in this area should tailor interventions to participants' motivation and readiness to change. PMID:18644154

Potential economic viability of two proposed rifapentine-based regimens for treatment of latent tuberculosis infection.

PubMed

Holland, David P; Sanders, Gillian D; Hamilton, Carol D; Stout, Jason E

2011-01-01

Rifapentine-based regimens for treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are being considered for future clinical trials, but even if they prove effective, high drug costs may limit their economic viability. To inform clinical trial design by estimating the potential costs and effectiveness of rifapentine-based regimens for treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). We used a Markov model to estimate cost and societal benefits for three regimens for treating LTBI: Isoniazid/rifapentine daily for one month, isoniazid/rifapentine weekly for three months (self-administered and directly-observed), and isoniazid daily for nine months; a strategy of "no treatment" used for comparison. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and instances of active tuberculosis averted were calculated for all arms. Both daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month and weekly isoniazid/rifapentine for three months were less expensive and more effective than other strategies under a wide variety of clinically plausibly parameter estimates. Daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month was the least expensive and most effective regimen. Daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month and weekly isoniazid/rifapentine for three months should be studied in a large-scale clinical trial for efficacy. Because both regimens performed well even if their efficacy is somewhat reduced, study designers should consider relaxing non-inferiority boundaries.

Videotape review leads to rapid and sustained learning.

PubMed

Scherer, Lynette A; Chang, Michael C; Meredith, J Wayne; Battistella, Felix D

2003-06-01

Performance review using videotapes is a strategy employed to improve future performance. We postulated that videotape review of trauma resuscitations would improve compliance with a treatment algorithm. Trauma resuscitations were taped and reviewed during a 6-month period. For 3 months, team members were given verbal feedback regarding performance. During the next 3 months, new teams attended videotape reviews of their performance. Data on targeted behaviors were compared between the two groups. Behavior did not change after 3 months of verbal feedback; however, behavior improved after 1 month of videotape feedback (P <0.05) and total time to disposition was reduced by 50% (P <0.01). This response was sustained for the remainder of the study. Videotape review can be an important learning tool as it was more effective than verbal feedback in achieving behavioral changes and algorithm compliance. Videotape review can be an important quality assurance adjunct, as improved algorithm compliance should be associated with improved patient care.

Statistical Prediction of Sea Ice Concentration over Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jongho; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kim, Baek-Min

2017-04-01

In this study, a statistical method that predict sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Arctic is developed. We first calculate the Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Functions (S-EOFs) of monthly Arctic SIC from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data, which contain the seasonal cycles (12 months long) of dominant SIC anomaly patterns. Then, the current SIC state index is determined by projecting observed SIC anomalies for latest 12 months to the S-EOFs. Assuming the current SIC anomalies follow the spatio-temporal evolution in the S-EOFs, we project the future (upto 12 months) SIC anomalies by multiplying the SI and the corresponding S-EOF and then taking summation. The predictive skill is assessed by hindcast experiments initialized at all the months for 1980-2010. When comparing predictive skill of SIC predicted by statistical model and NCEP CFS v2, the statistical model shows a higher skill in predicting sea ice concentration and extent.

MR-guided laser-induced interstitial thermotherapy of recurrent glioblastoma multiforme: preliminary results in 16 patients.

PubMed

Schwarzmaier, Hans-Joachim; Eickmeyer, Frank; von Tempelhoff, Wernholt; Fiedler, Volkhard Ulrich; Niehoff, Hendrik; Ulrich, Slif Dagobert; Yang, Qin; Ulrich, Frank

2006-08-01

We investigated the survival after laser-induced interstitial thermotherapy in 16 patients suffering from recurrent glioblastoma multiforme. The concept underlying the intervention is the cytoreduction of the tumor tissue by local thermocoagulation. All patients received standard chemotherapy (temozolomide). The median overall survival time after the first relapse was 9.4 months, corresponding to a median overall survival time after laser irradiation of 6.9 months. During the study, however, the median survival after laser coagulation increased to 11.2 months. This survival time is substantially longer than those reported for the natural history (<5 months) or after chemotherapy (temozolomide: 5.4-7.1 months). We conclude that cytoreduction by laser irradiation might be a promising option for patients suffering from recurrent glioblastoma multiforme. In addition, the data indicate the presence of a substantial learning curve. Future work should optimize the therapeutic regimen and evaluate this treatment approach in controlled clinical trials.

17 CFR 151.3 - Spot months for Referenced Contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Referenced Futures Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 (SB) Referenced Contract; (3) At the close... delivery period in the underlying Core Referenced Futures Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 16... Exchange Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) contract; (2) New York Mercantile Exchange New York Harbor No. 2...

Postoperative Time Dependent Tibiofemoral Articular Cartilage Contact Kinematics during Step-up after ACL Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Lin, Lin; Li, Jing-Sheng; Kernkamp, Willem A.; Hosseini, Ali; Kim, ChangWan; Yin, Peng; Wang, Lianxin; Tsai, Tsung-Yuan; Asnis, Peter; Li, Guoan

2016-01-01

This study was to investigate the in vivo tibiofemoral cartilage contact locations before and after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction at 6 and 36 months. Ten patients with unilateral ACL injury were included. A step-up motion was analyzed using a combined magnetic resonance modeling and dual fluoroscopic imaging techniques. The preoperative (i.e. ACL deficient and healthy contralateral) and postoperative cartilage contact locations at 6 and 36 months were analyzed. Similar patterns of the cartilage contact locations during the step-up motion were found for the preoperative and postoperative knee states as compared to the preoperative healthy contralateral side. At the end of step-up motion, the medial contact locations at postoperative 36 months were more anterior when compared to the preoperative healthy contralateral (p=0.02) and 6 months postoperative knee states (p=0.01). The changes of the cartilage contact locations at 36 months after ACL reconstruction compared to the healthy contralateral side were strongly correlated with the changes at 6 months postoperatively. This study showed that the tibiofemoral cartilage contact locations of the knee changes with time after ACL reconstruction, implying an ongoing recovery process within the 36 months after the surgery. There could be an association between the short-term (6 months) and longer-term (36 months) contact kinematics after ACL reconstruction. Future studies need to investigate the intrinsic relationship between knee kinematics at different times after ACL reconstruction. PMID:27720228

Risk factors for lower extremity injuries among male marathon runners.

PubMed

Van Middelkoop, M; Kolkman, J; Van Ochten, J; Bierma-Zeinstra, S M A; Koes, B W

2008-12-01

The aim of this study is to identify risk factors for lower extremity injuries in male marathon runners. A random sample of 1500 recreational male marathon runners was drawn. Possible risk factors were obtained from a baseline questionnaire 1 month before the start of the marathon. Information on injuries sustained shortly before or during the marathon was obtained using a post-race questionnaire. Of the 694 male runners who responded to the baseline and post-race questionnaire, 28% suffered a self-reported running injury on the lower extremities in the month before or during the marathon run. More than six times race participation in the previous 12 months [odds ratio (OR) 1.66; confidence interval (CI) 1.08-2.56], a history of running injuries (OR 2.62; CI 1.82-3.78), high education level (OR 0.73; CI 0.51-1.04) and daily smoking (OR 0.23; CI 0.05-1.01) were associated with the occurrence of lower extremity injuries. Among the modifiable risk factor studies, a training distance <40 km a week is a strong protective factor of future calf injuries, and regular interval training is a strong protective factor for knee injuries. Other training characteristics appear to have little or no effect on future injuries.

An Examination of Exercise-Induced Feeling States and Their Association With Future Participation in Physical Activity Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Brunet, Jennifer; Guérin, Eva; Speranzini, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Although exercise-induced feeling states may play a role in driving future behavior, their role in relation to older adults' participation in physical activity (PA) has seldom been considered. The objectives of this study were to describe changes in older adults' feeling states during exercise, and examine if levels of and changes in feeling states predicted their future participation in PA. Self-reported data on feeling states were collected from 82 older adults immediately before, during, and after a moderate-intensity exercise session, and on participation in PA 1 month later. Data were analyzed using latent growth modeling. Feelings of revitalization, positive engagement, and tranquility decreased during exercise, whereas feelings of physical exhaustion increased. Feelings of revitalization immediately before the exercise session predicted future participation in PA; changes in feeling states did not. This study does not provide empirical evidence that older adults' exercise-induced feeling states predict their future participation in PA.

Spatio-temporal examination of precipitation isotopes from the North American monsoon in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah from 2014 to 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulley-Cordova, C. L.; Bowen, G. J.

2017-12-01

A significant summertime feature of climate in the southwestern United States (US) is the North American monsoon (NAM), also known as the Mexican monsoon, Arizona monsoon, and the southwestern United States monsoon. NAM is a crucial contributor to total annual precipitation in the Four Corners region of the US. Modern investigation of NAM in this region using stable isotopes has been poorly studied. This study characterizes the spatio-temporal changes of NAM based on stable isotopic results from 40 sites, located within the boundaries of the Navajo Nation, in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah from 2014 to 2017. Sample collections were collected monthly at each site from May to October. Examination of temporal trends of precipitation revealed strong monthly and interannual changes; spatial analysis showed weak large-scale relationships across the study area. Analysis of stable isotopes in precipitation, surface, ground, and spring waters can be used to interpret the isotopic differences in the modern hydro-climate of the Navajo Nation and Colorado Plateau to help predict future hydro-climate changes and its implications on future water resources.

Virtual reality job interview training and 6-month employment outcomes for individuals with schizophrenia seeking employment.

PubMed

Smith, Matthew J; Fleming, Michael F; Wright, Michael A; Roberts, Andrea G; Humm, Laura Boteler; Olsen, Dale; Bell, Morris D

2015-08-01

Individuals with schizophrenia have low employment rates and the job interview presents a critical barrier for them to obtain employment. Virtual reality training has demonstrated efficacy at improving interview skills and employment outcomes among multiple clinical populations. However, the effects of this training on individuals with schizophrenia are unknown. This study evaluated the efficacy of virtual reality job interview training (VR-JIT) at improving job interview skills and employment outcomes among individuals with schizophrenia in a small randomized controlled trial (n=21 VR-JIT trainees, n=11 waitlist controls). Trainees completed up to 10h of virtual interviews using VR-JIT, while controls received services as usual. Primary outcome measures included two pre-test and two post-test video-recorded role-play interviews scored by blinded raters with expertise in human resources and self-reported interviewing self-confidence. Six-month follow-up data on employment outcomes were collected. Trainees reported that the intervention was easy-to-use, helpful, and prepared them for future interviews. Trainees demonstrated increased role-play scores between pre-test and post-test while controls did not (p=0.001). After accounting for neurocognition and months since prior employment, trainees had greater odds of receiving a job offer by 6month follow-up compared to controls (OR: 8.73, p=0.04) and more training was associated with fewer weeks until receiving a job offer (r=-0.63, p<0.001). Results suggest that VR-JIT is acceptable to trainees and may be efficacious for improving job interview skills in individuals with schizophrenia. Moreover, trainees had greater odds of receiving a job offer by 6-month follow-up. Future studies could evaluate the effectiveness of VR-JIT within community-based services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Success of nutrition-therapy interventions in persons with type 2 diabetes: challenges and future directions.

PubMed

Franz, Marion J; MacLeod, Janice

2018-01-01

A systematic review was conducted by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics to determine the evidence for the effectiveness of individualized nutrition therapy provided by a dietitian nutritionist and evidence-based (EB) nutrition-therapy interventions in adults with diabetes. This article briefly reviews the systematic process used and summarizes the effectiveness evidence and intervention recommendations. In persons with type 2 diabetes (T2D), 18 studies met study criteria for the effectiveness question. A 0.3%-2.0% decrease from baseline in glycated hemoglobin was reported at 3 months in 13 study arms, a 0.3%-1.8% decrease at 6 months in 12 study arms, a 0.3%-1.6% decrease at 12 months with ongoing support in six study arms, and a 0.6%-1.8% decrease at >12 months in four study arms. An initial series of encounters with follow-up visits and implementation of a variety of nutrition-therapy interventions, all of which reduced energy intake, were reported. Nutrition therapy also significantly decreased doses or number of glucose-lowering medications used and resulted in improvements in quality of life. Mixed effects on cardiovascular risk factors and body weight were reported. Fourteen questions were identified related to nutrition-therapy interventions. A total of 38 studies met study criteria for the nutrition-intervention questions, from which 30 conclusion statements and 19 nutrition-practice guideline recommendations for T2D were written. Three additional NPG recommendations for T2D were written based on evidence reviewed by the American Diabetes Association. The 22 nutrition-intervention recommendations for T2D are summarized. How to implement nutrition-practice guideline recommendations effectively by health care providers and individuals with T2D remains challenging. Of importance, it is recognized that identifying and integrating EB digital health-technology tools into clinical practice are major challenges for future management of diabetes, self-management education, and support.

Sample Size Requirements for Studies of Treatment Effects on Beta-Cell Function in Newly Diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Lachin, John M.; McGee, Paula L.; Greenbaum, Carla J.; Palmer, Jerry; Gottlieb, Peter; Skyler, Jay

2011-01-01

Preservation of -cell function as measured by stimulated C-peptide has recently been accepted as a therapeutic target for subjects with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. In recently completed studies conducted by the Type 1 Diabetes Trial Network (TrialNet), repeated 2-hour Mixed Meal Tolerance Tests (MMTT) were obtained for up to 24 months from 156 subjects with up to 3 months duration of type 1 diabetes at the time of study enrollment. These data provide the information needed to more accurately determine the sample size needed for future studies of the effects of new agents on the 2-hour area under the curve (AUC) of the C-peptide values. The natural log(), log(+1) and square-root transformations of the AUC were assessed. In general, a transformation of the data is needed to better satisfy the normality assumptions for commonly used statistical tests. Statistical analysis of the raw and transformed data are provided to estimate the mean levels over time and the residual variation in untreated subjects that allow sample size calculations for future studies at either 12 or 24 months of follow-up and among children 8–12 years of age, adolescents (13–17 years) and adults (18+ years). The sample size needed to detect a given relative (percentage) difference with treatment versus control is greater at 24 months than at 12 months of follow-up, and differs among age categories. Owing to greater residual variation among those 13–17 years of age, a larger sample size is required for this age group. Methods are also described for assessment of sample size for mixtures of subjects among the age categories. Statistical expressions are presented for the presentation of analyses of log(+1) and transformed values in terms of the original units of measurement (pmol/ml). Analyses using different transformations are described for the TrialNet study of masked anti-CD20 (rituximab) versus masked placebo. These results provide the information needed to accurately evaluate the sample size for studies of new agents to preserve C-peptide levels in newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. PMID:22102862

Sample size requirements for studies of treatment effects on beta-cell function in newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Lachin, John M; McGee, Paula L; Greenbaum, Carla J; Palmer, Jerry; Pescovitz, Mark D; Gottlieb, Peter; Skyler, Jay

2011-01-01

Preservation of β-cell function as measured by stimulated C-peptide has recently been accepted as a therapeutic target for subjects with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. In recently completed studies conducted by the Type 1 Diabetes Trial Network (TrialNet), repeated 2-hour Mixed Meal Tolerance Tests (MMTT) were obtained for up to 24 months from 156 subjects with up to 3 months duration of type 1 diabetes at the time of study enrollment. These data provide the information needed to more accurately determine the sample size needed for future studies of the effects of new agents on the 2-hour area under the curve (AUC) of the C-peptide values. The natural log(x), log(x+1) and square-root (√x) transformations of the AUC were assessed. In general, a transformation of the data is needed to better satisfy the normality assumptions for commonly used statistical tests. Statistical analysis of the raw and transformed data are provided to estimate the mean levels over time and the residual variation in untreated subjects that allow sample size calculations for future studies at either 12 or 24 months of follow-up and among children 8-12 years of age, adolescents (13-17 years) and adults (18+ years). The sample size needed to detect a given relative (percentage) difference with treatment versus control is greater at 24 months than at 12 months of follow-up, and differs among age categories. Owing to greater residual variation among those 13-17 years of age, a larger sample size is required for this age group. Methods are also described for assessment of sample size for mixtures of subjects among the age categories. Statistical expressions are presented for the presentation of analyses of log(x+1) and √x transformed values in terms of the original units of measurement (pmol/ml). Analyses using different transformations are described for the TrialNet study of masked anti-CD20 (rituximab) versus masked placebo. These results provide the information needed to accurately evaluate the sample size for studies of new agents to preserve C-peptide levels in newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes.

Impact of Brief Intervention Services on Drug-Using Truant Youths' Self-Reported Delinquency and Arrest Charges: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Dembo, Richard; Schmeidler, James; Wareham, Jennifer; Briones-Robinson, Rhissa; Winters, Ken C.; Ungaro, Rocio

2015-01-01

The issue of delinquency among truant youth is insufficiently documented in the literature. There is a need to elucidate this issue, and assess the efficacy of interventions to reduce this problem behavior. The present, NIDA-funded study addressed this gap by examining the impact of a Brief Intervention (BI), originally designed to address youth substance use, on their delinquent behavior over an 18-month follow-up period (for self-reported delinquency) and a 24-month follow-up period (for official record delinquency). A number of significant BI intervention effects with sizable effect sizes were found, as well as a number of marginally significant BI effects. In particular, significant reductions in arrest charges at 24-month follow-up for youth receiving BI services compared to controls were among the key findings of this study. Service delivery implications and directions for future analyses are discussed. PMID:27616873

Infant sleep and paternal involvement in infant caregiving during the first 6 months of life.

PubMed

Tikotzky, Liat; Sadeh, Avi; Glickman-Gavrieli, Tamar

2011-01-01

The goals of this study were to assess: (a) the involvement of fathers and mothers in overall and nighttime infant caregiving; (b) the links between paternal involvement in infant care and infant sleep patterns during the first 6 months. Fifty-six couples recruited during their first pregnancy, participated in the study. After delivery (1 and 6 months), both parents completed a questionnaire assessing the involvement of fathers relative to mothers in infant caregiving. Infant sleep was assessed using actigraphy and sleep diaries. Mothers were significantly more involved than fathers in daytime and nighttime caregiving. A higher involvement of fathers in overall infant care predicted and was associated with fewer infant night-wakings and with shorter total sleep time after controlling for breastfeeding. The findings highlight the importance of including fathers in developmental sleep research. Future studies should explore mechanisms underlying the relations between paternal involvement and infant sleep.

Circulating branched-chain amino acid concentrations are associated with obesity and future insulin resistance in children and adolescents.

PubMed

McCormack, S E; Shaham, O; McCarthy, M A; Deik, A A; Wang, T J; Gerszten, R E; Clish, C B; Mootha, V K; Grinspoon, S K; Fleischman, A

2013-02-01

What is already known about this subject Circulating concentrations of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) can affect carbohydrate metabolism in skeletal muscle, and therefore may alter insulin sensitivity. BCAAs are elevated in adults with diet-induced obesity, and are associated with their future risk of type 2 diabetes even after accounting for baseline clinical risk factors. What this study adds Increased concentrations of BCAAs are already present in young obese children and their metabolomic profiles are consistent with increased BCAA catabolism. Elevations in BCAAs in children are positively associated with insulin resistance measured 18 months later, independent of their initial body mass index. Branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) concentrations are elevated in response to overnutrition, and can affect both insulin sensitivity and secretion. Alterations in their metabolism may therefore play a role in the early pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes in overweight children. To determine whether paediatric obesity is associated with elevations in fasting circulating concentrations of BCAAs (isoleucine, leucine and valine), and whether these elevations predict future insulin resistance. Sixty-nine healthy subjects, ages 8-18 years, were enrolled as a cross-sectional cohort. A subset of subjects who were pre- or early-pubertal, ages 8-13 years, were enrolled in a prospective longitudinal cohort for 18 months (n = 17 with complete data). Elevations in the concentrations of BCAAs were significantly associated with body mass index (BMI) Z-score (Spearman's Rho 0.27, P = 0.03) in the cross-sectional cohort. In the subset of subjects that followed longitudinally, baseline BCAA concentrations were positively associated with homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance measured 18 months later after controlling for baseline clinical factors including BMI Z-score, sex and pubertal stage (P = 0.046). Elevations in the concentrations of circulating BCAAs are significantly associated with obesity in children and adolescents, and may independently predict future insulin resistance. © 2012 The Authors. Pediatric Obesity © 2012 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Precipitation forecast verification over Brazilian watersheds on present and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, L.; Bruyere, C. L.; Rotunno, O.

2016-12-01

Evaluating the quality of precipitation forecast is an essential step for hydrological studies, among other applications, which is particularly relevant when taking into account climate change and the consequent likely modification of precipitation patterns. In this study we analyzed daily precipitation forecasts given by the global model CESM and the regional model WRF on present and future climate. For present runs, CESM data have been considered from 1980 to 2005, and WRF data from 1990 to 2000. CESM future runs were available for 3 RCP scenarios (4.5, 6.0 and 8.5), over 2005-2100 period; for WRF, future runs spanned 4 different 11-year periods (2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090). WRF simulations had been driven by bias-corrected forcings, and had been done on present climate for a 24 members ensemble created by varying the adopted parameterization schemes. On WRF future climate simulations, data from 3 members out of the original ensemble were available. Precipitation data have been spatially averaged over some large Brazilian watersheds (Amazon and subbasins, Tocantins, Sao Francisco, 4 of Parana`s subbasins) and have been evaluated for present climate against a gauge gridded dataset and ERA Interim data both spanning the 1980-2013 period. The evaluation was focused on the analysis of precipitation forecasts probabilities distribution. Taking into account daily and monthly mean precipitation aggregated on 3-month periods (DJF,MAM,JJA,SON), we adopted some skill measures, amongst them, the Perkins Skill Score (PSS). From the results we verified that on present climate WRF ensemble mean led to clearly better results when compared with CESM data for Amazon, Tocantins and Sao Francisco, but model was not as skillful to the other basins, which could be also been observed for future climate. PSS results from future runs showed that few changes would be observed over the different periods for the considered basins.

Longitudinal Differences in Spirituality and Religiousness between Men and Women in Treatment for Alcohol Use Disorders

PubMed Central

Krentzman, Amy R.

2016-01-01

This study compares men and women with alcohol use disorders on levels and trajectories of spirituality and religiousness over 30 months while controlling for critical covariates. Men (n=92) and women (n=65) entering abstinence-based treatment were assessed for drinking behavior, spirituality, and psychosocial variables in a longitudinal panel study. Multiple regression tested for baseline differences and multi-level models tested for differences from baseline to 6 months (early recovery) and from 6 to 30 months (later recovery) in seven dimensions of spirituality/religiousness. Between baseline and 6 months, women had higher scores than men for forgiveness of others and lower scores than men for negative religious coping. Between 6 and 30 months, the acceleration of positive change in self forgiveness was significantly greater for women than men. Differences in negative religious coping and forgiveness might relate to differences in shame and guilt and their resolution by gender. Future research should examine whether gender differences in spirituality serve as an asset to women as they pursue addiction recovery. PMID:29250216

Longitudinal Differences in Spirituality and Religiousness between Men and Women in Treatment for Alcohol Use Disorders.

PubMed

Krentzman, Amy R

2017-01-01

This study compares men and women with alcohol use disorders on levels and trajectories of spirituality and religiousness over 30 months while controlling for critical covariates. Men (n=92) and women (n=65) entering abstinence-based treatment were assessed for drinking behavior, spirituality, and psychosocial variables in a longitudinal panel study. Multiple regression tested for baseline differences and multi-level models tested for differences from baseline to 6 months (early recovery) and from 6 to 30 months (later recovery) in seven dimensions of spirituality/religiousness. Between baseline and 6 months, women had higher scores than men for forgiveness of others and lower scores than men for negative religious coping. Between 6 and 30 months, the acceleration of positive change in self forgiveness was significantly greater for women than men. Differences in negative religious coping and forgiveness might relate to differences in shame and guilt and their resolution by gender. Future research should examine whether gender differences in spirituality serve as an asset to women as they pursue addiction recovery.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

The Observed Longitudinal Relationship between Future Orientation and Substance Use Among a Cohort of Youth with Serious Criminal Offenses.

PubMed

Brooks, Merrian; Miller, Elizabeth; Abebe, Kaleab; Mulvey, Edward

2018-03-06

Future orientation (FO), an essential construct in youth development, encompassing goals, expectations for life, and ability to plan for the future. This study uses a multidimensional measure of future orientation to assess the relationship between change in future orientation and change in substance use over time. Data were from the Pathways to Desistence study. Justice involved youth (n = 1,354), ages 14 to 18 at time of recruitment, completed interviews every six months for three years. Multiple measures were chosen a priori as elements of future orientation. After evaluating the psychometrics of a new measure for future orientation, we ran mixed effects cross-lagged panel models to assess the relationship between changes in future orientation and substance use (tobacco, marijuana, hard drugs, and alcohol). There was a significant bidirectional relationship between future orientation and all substance use outcomes. Adjusted models accounted for different sites, sex, age, ethnicity, parental education, and proportion of time spent in a facility. In adjusted models, higher levels of future orientation resulted in smaller increases in substance use at future time points. Future orientation and substance use influence each other in this sample of adolescent offenders. Treating substance use disorders is also likely to increase future orientation, promoting positive youth development more generally. This study expands our understanding of the longitudinal relationship between changes in future orientation and changes in levels of substance use in a sample of justice involved youth with high levels of substance use, a group of considerable clinical and policy interest.

Comparison of the Price and Volatility of Current and Alternative Models for the Acquisition of Direct Supply Natural Gas for the Department of Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

xv DEFINITIONS Arbitrage : Buying a futures month on one exchange and selling the same month on another Exchange by buying both sides...Strategies for Volatile Times” study “…before 2000, energy end users seldom considered hedging practices as a means of protecting themselves against...turned out to be a poor idea, especially since that supplier was Enron. Jon Engers of KTM said, “We recommend that end users do their hedging on a

The paradox of hope for working age adults recovering from stroke.

PubMed

Alaszewski, Andy; Wilkinson, Iain

2015-03-01

This article draws on data from a Stroke Association-funded longitudinal study in South East England (2003-2006) that explored the experiences and recovery of 43 stroke survivors under 60 years. Participants were invited to take part in four interviews over an 18-month period and to complete a diary for 1 week each month during this period. Here, we chart their shifting attitudes towards the process of their recovery. We bring a focus to how this transformed their views on the possible futures before them. We underline how hope was experienced as a deeply paradoxical and risk-laden notion. With energies concentrated upon the effort to live positively in the here and now, the very idea of hope for the future was met as an unwelcome distraction and in some cases even as a source of distress. © The Author(s) 2014.

Oocyte pick-up in juvenile lambs affects neither onset of puberty nor their future fertility.

PubMed

Valasi, Irene; Menegatos, I; Papanikolaou, Th; Goulas, P; Amiridis, G S

2006-12-01

A study was designed to evaluate whether the time of onset of puberty and fertility of young ewe lambs would be affected by oocyte pick-up conducted in single or repeated sessions during the first months of lambs' live. Five groups of lambs from the Karagouniko breed were used (A-E each n=12). In group A no treatments were applied (control group) while, laparoscopical follicular aspiration (OPU) was performed early in the third, fourth and fifth month of lambs age (groups C-E, respectively). From the second to fifth month of their age, group B lambs were aspirated four times in monthly intervals. All lambs were weighed at birth, weaning, at second month and monthly thereafter until the eighth month of age. Progesterone priming and ovarian stimulation by serial FSH administrations proceeded each OPU session. To determine onset of puberty blood progesterone concentration was assayed in samples collected initially every week and after the seventh month of age twice weekly. From the seventh month a fertile ram was introduced in each group and oestrous behavior/mating was daily monitored and recorded. Pregnancy diagnosis was carried out by transabdominal ultrasound scanning 55 days after rams' removal. At the fourth and fifth month of age group B lambs were lighter (p<0.05) than controls, but this difference was later equalized. The time of onset of puberty did not differ between groups (p=0.069) and ranged between 224 and 270 days. Some animals (n=15) entered puberty with a full-length luteal phase having progesterone concentration greater than 1ng/ml, while others (n=32) exhibited one or two short luteal phases before luteal length restoration. During the first breeding season 41 animals were fertilized and maintained pregnancy to term, without noticeable differences between groups (p=0.555). During the second breeding season, all ewes were naturally served and lambed at the expected time. It is concluded that OPU in young dairy lambs does not affect the time of onset of puberty, the endocrine profile of the lambs and it does not compromise their future fertility even if it is applied at four successive months.

Current and future droughts in the Southeastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Törnros, Tobias; Menzel, Lucas

2016-04-01

The southeastern Mediterranean region (i.e., Israel, Palestine, Jordan and neighboring countries) increasingly suffers significant water stress. The semi-arid to arid conditions with low precipitation amounts, high temperatures and strong interannual climate variability recurrently trigger drought conditions. However, the complex political situation, showing a low degree of mutual cooperation, favors an unsustainable use of water resources and no long-term, cross-boundary water management plan exists. In order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in this region, the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a different number of consecutive months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the choice of the SPEI/SPI timescale is crucial. In our study, the 6-month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Although not extensively addressed, the SPI performs almost just as well and could be applied if temperature data are not available. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the IPCC emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to strongly increase for all scenarios. Since agriculture is by far the most water demanding sector in the region, the impact of drought on agriculture was addressed. For this, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.

Perceived Marginalization and the Prediction of Romantic Relationship Stability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lehmiller, Justin J.; Agnew, Christopher R.

2007-01-01

The present research examined how perceived marginalization of one's romantic relationship is associated with level of future commitment to and stability of that involvement. Results from a 7-month longitudinal study of romantically involved individuals (N = 215) revealed that perceived social network marginalization at Time 1 predicted breakup…

The High Cost of Teacher Turnover. Policy Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Commission on Teaching and America's Future, 2007

2007-01-01

In 2007, the National Commission on Teaching and America's Future (NCTAF) completed an 18-month study of the costs of teacher turnover in five school districts. The selected districts varied in size, location, and demographics enabling exploration of how these variations affected costs. Costs of recruiting, hiring, processing, and training…

Mexico and the Future.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-09-25

analysis of the crisis as it developed during the Salinas years and the first months of the Zedillo presidency, see the preceding companion report to...Jonathan Fox’s excellent study of the short-lived Sistema Alimentario Mexicano and the lessons that can be learned from it: The Politics of Food in

Efficacy and safety of cross-linked hyaluronic acid single injection on osteoarthritis of the knee: a post-marketing Phase IV study.

PubMed

Bashaireh, Khaldoon; Naser, Ziad; Hawadya, Khaled Al; Sorour, Sorour; Al-Khateeb, Rami Nabeel

2015-01-01

The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and duration of action of viscosupplementation with Crespine® Gel over a 9-month period. The study was a post-marketing Phase IV study. A total of 109 participants with osteoarthritis of the knee (grades 1-4) in the tibio-femoral compartment were recruited in Jordan. Data were collected from each participant during the baseline visit. Each participant received Crespine® Gel injection, and follow-up visits took place at 3 months, 6 months, and 9 months post-injection. An assessment of participants by phone was conducted at 1 month, 2 months, 4 months, 5 months, 7 months, and 8 months post-injection. Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index questionnaires were completed during each visit. A 72-hour visit questionnaire was used to assess the safety of the injection. Statistical analysis included a two-sided 95% confidence interval for the difference between pain scores across visits, and the percent change from baseline was calculated. The full analysis included 84 participants who gave their informed consent and finished the necessary baseline and follow-up visits needed to assess efficacy and safety. Peak improvement was noted at 5 months post-injection, when pain and physical performance scores had decreased to 2.60 and 9.90, respectively, and the stiffness score was 0.33. The peak improvement in stiffness was noted at 8 months post-injection, when the stiffness score had decreased to 0.32. Significant improvements were still apparent at 9 months post-injection, when the pain score was 3.36, the stiffness score was 0.42, and the physical performance score was 11.5. All side effects were local and transient, and included pain, swelling, and redness of the knee. Most side effects were treated. Hyaluronan should be encouraged as an alternative or adjunct treatment to oral analgesics to reduce their required doses, and delay potential future surgical intervention.

Reducing absenteeism in hospital cleaning staff: pilot of a theory based intervention.

PubMed

Michie, S; Wren, B; Williams, S

2004-04-01

To develop, pilot, and evaluate a workplace intervention to reduce sickness absence, based on a demand-control-support model of job strain. Changes in the working arrangements of hospital cleaning staff were introduced with the aim of increasing their control over work and the support received at work. The study design was quasi-experimental, with 221 cleaning staff in the intervention group and 91 catering staff in the control group. The dependent variable was the difference in percentage monthly sickness absence between the 12 months preceding and following the intervention. Differences in sickness absence between staff groups for each month after the intervention were compared with differences between staff groups for the equivalent month one year prior to it. There was a significant reduction in the difference in sickness absence rates between the intervention and control group of 2.3% in the six months after the intervention, compared to the six months before. The difference was not maintained at 12 months. These results suggest that a workplace intervention aimed at increasing control and support at work has a small effect on reducing sickness absence among hospital cleaning staff in the short term. Future research should seek to replicate this effect in larger, experimental studies, analyse postulated mediators of such theory based interventions, and develop interventions that maintain improvement.

Impact of eLearning course on nurses' professional competence in seclusion and restraint practices: 9-month follow-up results of a randomized controlled study (ISRCTN32869544).

PubMed

Kontio, R; Hätönen, H; Joffe, G; Pitkänen, A; Lahti, M; Välimäki, M

2013-04-01

eLearning may facilitate continuing vocational education, but data on the long-term effects of an eLearning course are lacking. The aim of this study was to explore the long-term impact of an eLearning course entitled ePsychNurse.Net on psychiatric nurses' professional competence in practicing seclusion and restraint and on their job satisfaction and general self-efficacy at 9-month follow-up. In a randomized controlled study, 12 wards were randomly assigned to the ePsychNurse.Net (intervention) or training as usual (control). Baseline and 9-month follow-up data on nurses' knowledge of coercion-related legislation, physical restraint and seclusion, their attitudes towards physical restraint and seclusion, job satisfaction and general self-efficacy were analysed for 137 completers (those who participated in the 9-month follow-up assessment). No between-group differences were found on any variable, with the exception of a change in attitude to seclusion in favour of the control group. The findings of the long-term effects did not differ from the immediate outcomes (3-month follow-up) and the improved level of knowledge acquired and further consolidation of that knowledge did not take place in the 6-month period after the 3-month ePsychNurse.Net course. The ePsychNurse.Net should be further developed and its future modifications will require additional studies, probably with some new outcome measures. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing.

Physiological and Psychological Predictors of Short-Term Disability in Workers with a History of Low Back Pain: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Dubois, Jean-Daniel; Cantin, Vincent; Piché, Mathieu; Descarreaux, Martin

2016-01-01

Despite an elusive pathophysiology, common characteristics are often observed in individuals with chronic low back pain (LBP). These include psychological symptoms, altered pain perception, altered pain modulation and altered muscle activation. These factors have been explored as possible determinants of disability, either separately or in cross-sectional studies, but were never assessed in a single longitudinal study. Therefore, the objective was to determine the relative contribution of psychological and neurophysiological factors to future disability in individuals with past LBP. The study included two experimental sessions (baseline and six months later) to assess cutaneous heat pain and pain tolerance thresholds, pain inhibition, as well as trunk muscle activation. Both sessions included the completion of validated questionnaires to determine clinical pain, disability, pain catastrophizing, fear-avoidance beliefs and pain vigilance. One hundred workers with a history of LBP and 19 healthy individuals took part in the first experimental session. The second experimental session was exclusively conducted on workers with a history of LBP (77/100). Correlation analyses between initial measures and disability at six months were conducted, and measures significantly associated with disability were used in multiple regression analyses. A first regression analysis showed that psychological symptoms contributed unique variance to future disability (R2 = 0.093, p = .009). To control for the fluctuating nature of LBP, a hierarchical regression was conducted while controlling for clinical pain at six months (R2 = 0.213, p < .001) where pain inhibition contributed unique variance in the second step of the regression (R2 change = 0.094, p = .005). These results indicate that pain inhibition processes may constitute potential targets for treatment to alleviate future disability in individuals with past or present LBP. Then again, the link between psychological symptoms and pain inhibition needs to be clarified as both of these factors are linked together and influence disability in their own way. PMID:27783666

Qualitative elements of early motor development that influence reaching of the erect posture. A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Gajewska, Ewa; Sobieska, Magdalena

2015-05-01

The proposed assessment sheet aims to show in detail, which qualitative elements of motor performance are performed correctly in the 2nd month of life by children who in the 9th month reached the erect posture. Similar analysis was performed for the qualitative assessment in the 6th month. The prospective investigation of motor development involved a group of 109 children (40 girls and 69 boys). The study was based on the previously described quantity and quality assessment sheet of motor performance, validated for the 2nd and 6th month. Final investigation took place in the 9th month of life and was based on a neurological assessment. It could be shown that a completely correct assessment at the age of 2 months precludes future severe motor development disorders, especially cerebral palsy, although it does not rule out a slight delay. Prematurity and the analyzed risk factors, particularly IVH, impair the motor performance. The absence of axial symmetry, the shoulders protraction and improper position of the pelvis are the most important alarming features at the 2nd month. Distal elements observed in the prone position at the 6th month show a good prognosis for the motor performance in the 9th month. Any abnormalities, mainly related to the body axis and symmetry observed at 2 months of age should encourage one to put a child under observation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting fruit consumption: the role of habits, previous behavior and mediation effects

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This study assessed the role of habits and previous behavior in predicting fruit consumption as well as their additional predictive contribution besides socio-demographic and motivational factors. In the literature, habits are proposed as a stable construct that needs to be controlled for in longitudinal analyses that predict behavior. The aim of this study is to provide empirical evidence for the inclusion of either previous behavior or habits. Methods A random sample of 806 Dutch adults (>18 years) was invited by an online survey panel of a private research company to participate in an online study on fruit consumption. A longitudinal design (N = 574) was used with assessments at baseline and after one (T2) and two months (T3). Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to assess the differential value of habit and previous behavior in the prediction of fruit consumption. Results Eighty percent of habit strength could be explained by habit strength one month earlier, and 64% of fruit consumption could be explained by fruit consumption one month earlier. Regression analyses revealed that the model with motivational constructs explained 41% of the behavioral variance at T2 and 38% at T3. The addition of previous behavior and habit increased the explained variance up to 66% at T2 and to 59% at T3. Inclusion of these factors resulted in non-significant contributions of the motivational constructs. Furthermore, our findings showed that the effect of habit strength on future behavior was to a large extent mediated by previous behavior. Conclusions Both habit and previous behavior are important as predictors of future behavior, and as educational objectives for behavior change programs. Our results revealed less stability for the constructs over time than expected. Habit strength was to a large extent mediated by previous behavior and our results do not strongly suggest a need for the inclusion of both constructs. Future research needs to assess the conditions that determine direct influences of both previous behavior and habit, since these influences may differ per type of health behavior, per context stability in which the behavior is performed, and per time frame used for predicting future behavior. PMID:25037859

New Insights into the Management of Hypertension and Cardiovascular Risk with Angiotensin Receptor Blockers: Observational Studies Help Us?

PubMed Central

Goudev, Assen

2014-01-01

Post-marketing observational studies are valuable for establishing the real-world effectiveness of treatment regimens in routine clinical practice as they typically monitor a diverse population of patients over many months. This article reviews recent observational studies of angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) for the management of hypertension: the 6-month eprosartan POWER study (n~29,400), the 3-month valsartan translational research programme (n~19,500), the 9-month irbesartan Treat to Target study (n=14,200), the 6-month irbesartan DO-IT survey (n~3300) and the 12-week candesartan CHILI survey programme (n=4600). Reduction in blood pressure with ARBs reported across these studies appears to be comparable for the different agents, although direct comparisons between studies cannot be made owing to different treatment durations and baseline patient demographics. Of these studies, the eprosartan POWER study, 2 of the 7 studies in the valsartan translational research programme, and the candesartan CHILI Triple T study measured total cardiovascular risk, as recommended in the 2013 European Society of Cardiology-European Society of Hypertension guidelines. The POWER study confirmed the value of the Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) to accurately assess total cardiovascular risk. With the advent of new healthcare practices, such as the use of electronic health records (EHRs), observational studies in larger patient populations will become possible. In the future, algorithms embedded in EHR systems could evolve as decision support tools to inform on patient care. PMID:24847388

The Future of the NLM (National Library of Medicine) Documents Section.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Scott

This study revealed that the use of the NLM Documents Section is extremely modest. A total of 144 inter-library loan requests were filled by the Section in the months of January and February, 1972; most of these were from Government agencies. The study investigator recommended that: (1) the collection should be maintained by the NLM; (2) that…

The Early Development of Sight-Reading Skills in Adulthood: A Study of Eye Movements

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penttinen, Marjaana; Huovinen, Erkki

2011-01-01

In this study the effects of skill development on the eye movements of beginning adult sight-readers were examined, focusing on changes in the allocation of visual attention within metrical units as well as in the processing of larger melodic intervals. The participants were future elementary school teachers, taking part in a 9-month-long music…

Long-term growth rates and effects of bleaching in Acropora hyacinthus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Zachary; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2018-03-01

Understanding the response of coral growth to natural variation in the environment, as well as to acute temperature stress under current and future climate change conditions, is critical to predicting the future health of coral reef ecosystems. As such, ecological surveys are beginning to focus on corals that live in high thermal stress environments to understand how future coral populations may adapt to climate change. We investigated the relationship between coral growth, thermal microhabitat, symbionts type, and thermal acclimatization of four species of the Acropora hyacinthus complex in back-reef lagoons in American Samoa. Coral growth was measured from August 2010 to April 2016 using horizontal planar area of coral colonies derived from photographs and in situ maximum width measurements. Despite marked intraspecific variation, we found that planar colony growth rates were significantly different among cryptic species. The highly heat tolerant A. hyacinthus variant "HE" increased in area an average of 2.9% month-1 (0.03 cm average mean radial extension month-1). By contrast, the three less tolerant species averaged 6.1% (0.07 cm average mean radial extension month-1). Planar growth rates were 40% higher on average in corals harboring Clade C versus Clade D symbiont types, although marked inter-colony variation in growth rendered this difference nonsignificant. Planar growth rates for all four species dropped to near zero following a 2015 bleaching event, independent of the visually estimated percent area of bleaching. Within 1 yr, growth rates recovered to previous levels, confirming previous studies that found sublethal effects of thermal stress on coral growth. Long-term studies of individual coral colonies provide an important tool to measure impacts of environmental change and allow integration of coral physiology, genetics, symbionts, and microclimate on reef growth patterns.

Pain and sensory disturbances following surgical repair of pectus carinatum.

PubMed

Knudsen, Marie Veje; Pilegaard, Hans K; Grosen, Kasper

2018-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the characteristics of persistent postoperative pain and sensory disturbances following surgical repair of pectus carinatum. Using a prospective observational design, 28 patients were assessed before, 6 weeks and 6 months after a modified Ravitch operation for pectus carinatum. Postoperative pain was assessed using the Short Form McGill Pain Questionnaire. Sensory testing was conducted to detect brush-evoked allodynia and pinprick hyperalgesia. Additionally, generic and disease-specific quality of life was assessed using the Short Form-36 Health Survey and the Nuss Questionnaire Modified for Adults before and after surgery. Six weeks after surgery, ten patients reported mild pain or discomfort. Six months after surgery, four patients reported only mild pain. Allodynia was detected in two patients 6 weeks and 6 months after surgery. Hyperalgesia was detected in eight patients 6 weeks after surgery, and in six patients 6 months after surgery. Generic quality of life was significantly improved over time. The study showed no significant pain problems, a tendency to reduced sensory disturbances and significant improvements in quality of life 6 months after surgical repair of pectus carinatum. Future studies should include a longer follow-up period to determine if these positive results are persistent. 1 (Prognosis Study). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of Brief Intervention Services on Drug Using Truant Youth Arrest Charges over Time

PubMed Central

Dembo, Richard; Briones-Robinson, Rhissa; Wareham, Jennifer; Schmeidler, James; Winters, Ken C.; Barrett, Kimberly; Ungaro, Rocio; Karas, Lora M.; Belenko, Steven

2012-01-01

School truancy is a serious concern in the U.S., with far-reaching negative consequences. Truancy has been positively associated with substance use and delinquent behavior; however, research is limited. Consequently, the Truancy Brief Intervention Project was established to treat and prevent substance use and other risky behaviors among truants. This article examines whether the Brief Intervention program is more effective in preventing future delinquency over a 12-month follow-up period, than the standard truancy program. Results indicate the Brief Intervention was marginally significant in effecting future delinquency among truants, compared to the standard truancy program. Future implications of this study are discussed. PMID:25382960

The potential impact of MMICs on future satellite communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, Vernon E.

1988-01-01

This is the Final Report representing the results of a 17-month study on the future trends and requirements of Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (MMIC) for space communication applications. Specifically this report identifies potential space communication applications of MMICs, assesses the impact of MMIC on the classes of systems that were identified, determines the present status and probable 10-year growth in capability of required MMIC and competing technologies, identifies the applications most likely to benefit from further MMIC development and presents recommendations for NASA development activities to address the needs of these applications.

The potential impact of MMICs on future satellite communications: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, Vernon E.

1988-01-01

This Executive Summary presents the results of a 17-month study on the future trends and requirments for Monolithic Microwave Integrated circuits (MMIC) for space communication application. Specifically this report identifies potential space communication applications of MMICs, assesses the impact of MMIC on the classes of systems that were identified, determines the present status and probable 10-year growth in capability of required MMIC and competing technologies, identifies the applications most likely to benefit from further MMIC development, and presents recommendations for NASA development activities to address the needs of these applications.

Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

PubMed

Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

2014-04-01

Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

Quantifying changes in flooding and habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake (Cambodia) caused by water infrastructure development and climate change in the Mekong Basin.

PubMed

Arias, Mauricio E; Cochrane, Thomas A; Piman, Thanapon; Kummu, Matti; Caruso, Brian S; Killeen, Timothy J

2012-12-15

The economic value of the Tonle Sap Lake Floodplain to Cambodia is arguably among the highest provided to a nation by a single ecosystem around the world. Nonetheless, the Mekong River Basin is changing rapidly due to accelerating water infrastructure development (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and water supply) and climate change, bringing considerable modifications to the flood pulse of the Tonle Sap Lake in the foreseeable future. This paper presents research conducted to determine how the historical flooding regime, together with human action, influenced landscape patterns of habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake, and how these habitats might shift as a result of hydrological changes. Maps of water depth, annual flood duration, and flood frequency were created for recent historical hydrological conditions and for simulated future scenarios of water infrastructure development and climate change. Relationships were then established between the historical flood maps and land cover, and these were subsequently applied to assess potential changes to habitat cover in future decades. Five habitat groups were clearly distinguishable based on flood regime, physiognomic patterns, and human activity: (1) Open water, flooded for 12 months in an average hydrological year; (2) Gallery forest, with flood duration of 9 months annually; (3) Seasonally flooded habitats, flooded 5-8 months and dominated by shrublands and grasslands; (4) transitional habitats, flooded 1-5 months and dominated by abandoned agricultural fields, receding rice/floating rice, and lowland grasslands; and (5) Rainfed habitats, flooded up to 1 month and consisting mainly of wet season rice fields and village crops. It was found that water infrastructure development could increase the area of open water (+18 to +21%) and the area of rainfed habitats (+10 to +14%), while reducing the area covered with seasonally flooded habitats (-13 to -22%) and gallery forest (-75 to -83%). Habitat cover shifts as a result of climate change include a net increase of open water (2-21%), as well as a reduction of rainfed habitats by 2-5% and seasonally flooded habitats by 5-11%. Findings from this study will help guide on-going and future conservation and restoration efforts throughout this unique and critical ecosystem. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An enhanced archive facilitating climate impacts analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, E.P.; Brekke, L.; Pruitt, T.; Thrasher, B.; Long, J.; Duffy, P.; Dettinger, M.; Cayan, D.; Arnold, J.

2014-01-01

We describe the expansion of a publicly available archive of downscaled climate and hydrology projections for the United States. Those studying or planning to adapt to future climate impacts demand downscaled climate model output for local or regional use. The archive we describe attempts to fulfill this need by providing data in several formats, selectable to meet user needs. Our archive has served as a resource for climate impacts modelers, water managers, educators, and others. Over 1,400 individuals have transferred more than 50 TB of data from the archive. In response to user demands, the archive has expanded from monthly downscaled data to include daily data to facilitate investigations of phenomena sensitive to daily to monthly temperature and precipitation, including extremes in these quantities. New developments include downscaled output from the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations at both the monthly and daily time scales, as well as simulations of surface hydrologi- cal variables. The web interface allows the extraction of individual projections or ensemble statistics for user-defined regions, promoting the rapid assessment of model consensus and uncertainty for future projections of precipitation, temperature, and hydrology. The archive is accessible online (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_ cmip_projections).

High Spatial Resolution Forecasting of Long-Term Monthly Precipitation and Mean Temperature Trends in Data Scarce Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosier, T. M.; Hill, D. F.; Sharp, K. V.

2013-12-01

High spatial resolution time-series data are critical for many hydrological and earth science studies. Multiple groups have developed historical and forecast datasets of high-resolution monthly time-series for regions of the world such as the United States (e.g. PRISM for hindcast data and MACA for long-term forecasts); however, analogous datasets have not been available for most data scarce regions. The current work fills this data need by producing and freely distributing hindcast and forecast time-series datasets of monthly precipitation and mean temperature for all global land surfaces, gridded at a 30 arc-second resolution. The hindcast data are constructed through a Delta downscaling method, using as inputs 0.5 degree monthly time-series and 30 arc-second climatology global weather datasets developed by Willmott & Matsuura and WorldClim, respectively. The forecast data are formulated using a similar downscaling method, but with an additional step to remove bias from the climate variable's probability distribution over each region of interest. The downscaling package is designed to be compatible with a number of general circulation models (GCM) (e.g. with GCMs developed for the IPCC AR4 report and CMIP5), and is presently implemented using time-series data from the NCAR CESM1 model in conjunction with 30 arc-second future decadal climatologies distributed by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. The resulting downscaled datasets are 30 arc-second time-series forecasts of monthly precipitation and mean temperature available for all global land areas. As an example of these data, historical and forecast 30 arc-second monthly time-series from 1950 through 2070 are created and analyzed for the region encompassing Pakistan. For this case study, forecast datasets corresponding to the future representative concentration pathways 45 and 85 scenarios developed by the IPCC are presented and compared. This exercise highlights a range of potential meteorological trends for the Pakistan region and more broadly serves to demonstrate the utility of the presented 30 arc-second monthly precipitation and mean temperature datasets for use in data scarce regions.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Serial assessment of arterial stiffness by cardio-ankle vascular index for prediction of future cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Otsuka, Kenichiro; Fukuda, Shota; Shimada, Kenei; Suzuki, Kenji; Nakanishi, Koki; Yoshiyama, Minoru; Yoshikawa, Junichi

2014-11-01

Arterial stiffness is a significant predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the risk of which is modified by medications for atherosclerotic risk factors and life-style changes. Cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) provides noninvasive, objective information on arterial stiffness, independent of blood pressure. This study aimed to investigate changes in CAVI after management of atherosclerotic risk factors, and the impact of these changes on future CVD outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). The study consisted of 211 CAD patients (65 ± 10 years, 118 men) with impaired CAVI. CAVI examination was repeated 6 months later. Impaired CAVI was defined as greater than the mean plus 1 s.d. of the age- and gender-specific normal CAVI values, according to results obtained in 5188 healthy subjects. All patients were followed for > 1 year or until the occurrence of a CVD event. Of the 211 patients, CAVI improved in 106 (50%) patients after 6 months, but remained high in 105 (50%) patients. During follow-up (2.9 ± 1.0 years), CVD events occurred in 28 (13%) patients. Persistently impaired CAVI was an independent predictor of future CVD events (P = 0.01), independent of baseline CAVI. CVD outcomes were worse in patients with persistently impaired CAVI than in those with improved CAVI (P < 0.001). Among patients with a normalized CAVI after treatment (n = 22) only one suffered a CVD event. This study was the first to demonstrate that persistent impairment of arterial stiffness was an independent risk factor of future CVD events. Serial measurements of CAVI provide important prognostic information regarding patients with CAD in clinical practice.

3 CFR 8768 - Proclamation 8768 of December 28, 2011. National Mentoring Month, 2012

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... December 28, 2011 Proc. 8768 National Mentoring Month, 2012By the President of the United States of America... essential role in preparing our Nation’s youth for a bright future. During National Mentoring Month, we... relative, or a trusted friend, a mentor’s steady and dependable support can inspire a child to strive for...

InternationaL cross-sectIonAl and longItudinal assessment on aSthma cONtrol in European adult patients - the LIAISON study protocol

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background According to international guidelines, the goal of asthma management is to achieve and maintain control of the disease, which can be assessed using composite measures. Prospective studies are required to determine how these measures are associated with asthma outcomes and/or future risk. The ‘InternationaL cross-sectIonAl and longItudinal assessment on aSthma cONtrol (LIAISON)’ observational study has been designed to evaluate asthma control and its determinants, including components of asthma management. Methods/design The LIAISON study will be conducted in 12 European countries and comprises a cross-sectional phase and a 12-month prospective phase. Both phases will aim at assessing asthma control (six-item Asthma Control Questionnaire, ACQ), asthma-related quality of life (Mini Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire, Mini-AQLQ), risk of non-adherence to treatment (four-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale, MMAS-4), potential reasons for poor control, treatment strategies and associated healthcare costs. The cross-sectional phase will recruit > 8,000 adult patients diagnosed with asthma for at least 6 months and receiving the same asthma treatment in the 4 weeks before enrolment. The prospective phase will include all patients with uncontrolled/poorly controlled asthma at the initial visit to assess the proportion reaching control during follow-up and to examine predictors of future risk. Visits will take place after 3, 6 and 12 months. Discussion The LIAISON study will provide important information on the prevalence of asthma control and on the quality of life in a broad spectrum of real-life patient populations from different European countries and will also contribute to evaluate differences in management strategies and their impact on healthcare costs over 12 months of observation. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT01567280. PMID:23530817

Improved health behaviors persist over two years for employees in a worksite wellness program.

PubMed

LeCheminant, James D; Merrill, Ray M

2012-10-01

This study evaluates whether improvements in health behaviors related to a worksite wellness program persist through 2 years. The program was designed to build behavioral capability and self-efficacy by yielding immediately applicable skills and tools and segmenting the behavior change process into weekly, manageable doses. Analyses are based on 267 individuals employed from 2009 through 2011. Significant improvements were observed in the frequency and volume of exercise, and the consumption of vegetables and fruits over 12 and 24 months. Requests for health coaching significantly increased over the study period. Thus, the type of wellness program evaluated in this study produced sustainable health behaviors through 24 months, which likely will translate into future positive health outcomes and improved employee productivity.

Social Networking Sites and Language Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brick, Billy

2011-01-01

This article examines a study of seven learners who logged their experiences on the language leaning social networking site Livemocha over a period of three months. The features of the site are described and the likelihood of their future success is considered. The learners were introduced to the Social Networking Site (SNS) and asked to learn a…

Physics at an upgraded Fermilab proton driver

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geer, S.; /Fermilab

2005-07-01

In 2004 the Fermilab Long Range Planning Committee identified a new high intensity Proton Driver as an attractive option for the future, primarily motivated by the recent exciting developments in neutrino physics. Over the last few months a physics study has developed the physics case for the Fermilab Proton Driver. The potential physics opportunities are discussed.

Ability to Pay for Future National Health Financing Scheme among Malaysian Households.

PubMed

Aizuddin, Azimatun Noor; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed

Malaysia is no exception to the challenging health care financing phenomenon of globalization. The objective of the present study was to assess the ability to pay among Malaysian households as preparation for a future national health financing scheme. This was a cross-sectional study involving representative samples of 774 households in Peninsular Malaysia. A majority of households were found to have the ability to pay for their health care. Household expenditure on health care per month was between MYR1 and MYR2000 with a mean (standard deviation [SD]) of 73.54 (142.66), or in a percentage of per-month income between 0.05% and 50% with mean (SD) 2.74 (5.20). The final analysis indicated that ability to pay was significantly higher among younger and higher-income households. Sociodemographic and socioeconomic statuses are important eligibility factors to be considered in planning the proposed national health care financing scheme to shield the needed group from catastrophic health expenditures. Copyright © 2017 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Getting Back to Living: Further Evidence for the Efficacy of an Interdisciplinary Pediatric Pain Treatment Program.

PubMed

Bruce, Barbara K; Ale, Chelsea M; Harrison, Tracy E; Bee, Susan; Luedtke, Connie; Geske, Jennifer; Weiss, Karen E

2017-06-01

This study examined key functional outcomes following a 3-week interdisciplinary pediatric pain rehabilitation program for adolescents with chronic pain. Maintenance of gains was evaluated at 3-month follow-up. Participants included 171 adolescents (12 to 18 y of age) with chronic pain who completed a hospital-based outpatient pediatric pain rehabilitation program. Participants completed measures of functional disability, depressive symptoms, pain catastrophizing, opioid use, school attendance, and pain severity at admission, discharge, and at 3-month follow-up. Similar to other interdisciplinary pediatric pain rehabilitation program outcome studies, significant improvements were observed at the end of the program. These improvements appeared to be maintained or further improved at 3-month follow-up. Nearly 14% of the patients were taking daily opioid medication at admission to the program. All adolescents were completely tapered off of these medications at the end of the 3-week program and remained abstinent at 3-month follow-up. This study adds to the available data supporting interdisciplinary pediatric pain rehabilitation as effective in improving functioning and psychological distress even when discontinuing opioids. Implications for future research and limitations of the study are discussed.

Is the Use of Protective Behavioral Strategies Associated With College Sexual Assault Victimization? A Prospective Examination

PubMed Central

Gilmore, Amanda K.; Maples-Keller, Jessica L.; Pinsky, Hanna T.; Shepard, Molly E.; Lewis, Melissa A.; George, William H.

2016-01-01

Sexual assault protective behavioral strategies (PBS) may be negatively associated with sexual assault victimization. However, no studies to date have prospectively examined whether the use of sexual assault PBS is negatively associated with subsequent sexual assault experiences. The current study examined the association between the use of sexual assault PBS and subsequent sexual assault victimization severity. College women who reported engaging in heavy episodic drinking (n = 77) were assessed online for their use of sexual assault PBS and history of sexual assault victimization. In addition, a 3-month follow-up survey was given assessing sexual assault victimization severity in the past 3 months. The use of sexual assault PBS was negatively associated with sexual assault severity in the 3-month follow-up period. Future research should further examine these PBS to create more college-specific PBS and to determine whether they are useful as risk-reduction strategies. PMID:26856359

Examining antecedents of infant attachment security with mothers and fathers: An ecological systems perspective☆

PubMed Central

Lickenbrock, Diane M.; Braungart-Rieker, Julia M.

2015-01-01

Taking an ecological systems perspective, early parent–child relationships can be affected by interactions between systems where some are more proximally linked to the child than others. Socioeconomic status, a distal factor, is associated with social functioning during childhood, but research on its association with functioning during infancy, particularly attachment, is scant and inconsistent. Moreover, it is not clear how distal factors affect infant functioning. Other systems such as marital adjustment and parenting may moderate or mediate relations between distal factors and infant attachment. The current longitudinal study (n = 135) examined the role of various systems – parental resources, marital functioning, parental sensitivity and involvement – in early infancy (3-, 5-, 7-months) on infant–mother (12-months) and infant–father (14-months) attachment security. Findings supported moderating processes but in different ways for infant–mother versus infant–father dyads. Implications for future studies and interventions are discussed. PMID:25890261

Maintaining physical fitness and function in Alzheimer's disease: a pilot study.

PubMed

Yu, Fang; Savik, Kay; Wyman, Jean F; Bronas, Ulf G

2011-08-01

Little is known about how aerobic exercise affects physical functioning in persons with Alzheimer's disease (AD). This pilot study used a 1-group repeated measures design to examine the feasibility and impact of a 6-month individualized moderate intensity cycling intervention on cardiorespiratory fitness and lower extremity function in 8 participants aged 81.4 ± 3.58. Cardiorespiratory fitness was measured using the shuttle walk and modified YMCA cycle ergometer tests, and lower extremity function was measured using the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) at baseline, 3 months and 6 months. The YMCA test showed a significant reduction in heart rate at stage 2 (103.4 vs 90.9 vs 91.6; P = .01), while no significant changes were observed in the shuttle walk and SPPB tests. Persons with AD are able to improve cardiorespiratory conditioning from aerobic exercise. Randomized, controlled trials are needed to confirm these findings. Implications for future research are detailed.

Sexual risk reduction among non-injection drug users: report of a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Castor, Delivette; Pilowsky, Daniel J; Hadden, Bernadette; Fuller, Crystal; Ompad, Danielle C; de Leon, Cora L; Neils, Greg; Hoepner, Lori; Andrews, Howard F; Latkin, Carl; Hoover, Donald R

2010-01-01

We conducted a randomized controlled trial of a sexual risk-reduction intervention targeting non-injection drug users (NIDUs) and members of their drug-use/sexual networks (N=270). The intervention was based primarily on the social-influencing approach, and was delivered in four sessions. Sexual risk behaviors were examined at baseline, and 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after the completion of the intervention using the vaginal equivalent episodes (VEE), a weighted sexual risk behavior index. VEE scores decreased in both the active and control conditions in the first six months post-intervention and continued to decline in the control group. However, in the active condition, VEE scores increased after the nine-month assessment and approached baseline levels by the 12-month assessment. There was no evidence of significant differences in high-risk sexual behaviors between the intervention and control conditions. Future studies are needed to improve behavioral interventions in this population.

Longitudinal prediction of language emergence in infants at high and low risk for autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Edmunds, Sarah R; Ibañez, Lisa V; Warren, Zachary; Messinger, Daniel S; Stone, Wendy L

2017-02-01

This study used a prospective longitudinal design to examine the early developmental pathways that underlie language growth in infants at high risk (n = 50) and low risk (n = 34) for autism spectrum disorder in the first 18 months of life. While motor imitation and responding to joint attention (RJA) have both been found to predict expressive language in children with autism spectrum disorder and those with typical development, the longitudinal relation between these capacities has not yet been identified. As hypothesized, results revealed that 15-month RJA mediated the association between 12-month motor imitation and 18-month expressive vocabulary, even after controlling for earlier levels of RJA and vocabulary. These results provide new information about the developmental sequencing of skills relevant to language growth that may inform future intervention efforts for children at risk for language delay or other developmental challenges.

17 CFR 151.3 - Spot months for Referenced Contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 (SB) Referenced Contract; (3) At the close of business on... in the underlying Core Referenced Futures Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 16 (SF... Exchange Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) contract; (2) New York Mercantile Exchange New York Harbor No. 2...

17 CFR 151.3 - Spot months for Referenced Contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 11 (SB) Referenced Contract; (3) At the close of business on... in the underlying Core Referenced Futures Contract for the ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No. 16 (SF... Exchange Light Sweet Crude Oil (CL) contract; (2) New York Mercantile Exchange New York Harbor No. 2...

Elimination of African onchocerciasis: modeling the impact of increasing the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment.

PubMed

Coffeng, Luc E; Stolk, Wilma A; Hoerauf, Achim; Habbema, Dik; Bakker, Roel; Hopkins, Adrian D; de Vlas, Sake J

2014-01-01

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.

Atmospheric Rivers, Climate Change, and the Howard Hanson Dam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Shaffer, K.; Brettman, K.

2017-12-01

All wintertime extreme precipitation and major flooding events in Western Washington are associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow bands of elevated integrated water vapor transport (IVT) stretching from the tropical Pacific Ocean to the Pacific Northwest coast. Several studies over the last decade have suggested that climate change could impact the intensity, frequency, timing, and structure of Pacific Northwest extreme precipitation. The Howard Hanson Dam is situated on the Green River in the central Cascade Mountains in Western Washington and is operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in Seattle. The reservoir behind the dam has two functions: It is the main water supply for the city of Tacoma and is filled during the summer months, and it is empty during winter months when it is used for flood risk management during AR events, protecting billions of dollars of infrastructure downstream. The reservoir is maintained by the Cascade Mountains' abundant winter snowpack and precipitation. Since the reservoir behind Howard Hanson Dam must be empty before the flood season starts and is reliant on snowpack and precipitation to fill in late spring, impacts due to climate change are important for how the USACE operates and manages flood risk and water supply in the future. This work describes changes in the structure, climatology, and seasonality of cool-season atmospheric rivers influencing the west coast of North America by examining the projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. There are only slight changes in AR frequency and seasonality between historical (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) periods considering the most extreme days (99th percentile) in integrated water vapor transport (IVT) along the West Coast, particularly along the southern part of the U.S. west coast, where some changes in the most extreme events are statistically significant. In contrast, using the number of future days exceeding the historical 99th percentile IVT threshold produces statistically significant increases in the frequency of extreme IVT events for all winter months. The peak in future AR days appears to occur approximately one month earlier.

Infant Humor Perception from 3- to 6-months and Attachment at One Year

PubMed Central

Mireault, Gina; Sparrow, John; Poutre, Merlin; Perdue, Brittany; Macke, Laura

2012-01-01

Infancy is a critical time for the development of secure attachment, which is facilitated by emotionally synchronous interactions with parents. Humor development, which includes shared laughter and joint attention to an event, emerges concurrently with attachment, but little is known regarding the relationship, if any, between humor development and attachment in the first year. Thirty 3-month-old infants were videoed at home each month until they were 6-months old while their parents attempted to amuse them. Frequency of infants’ smiles and laughs served as a measure of “state humor”, and the smiling/laughing subscale of the Infant Behavior Questionnaire-Revised served as a measure of “trait humor”. State and trait humor were not correlated. Lower trait humor as 6 months predicted higher attachment security on the Attachment Q-sort at 12-months (r=. 46), suggesting that less good-humored infants elicit greater parental engagement, which works to the benefit of attachment, or vice versa. Future studies should examine the importance of smiling and laughter as they relate to other developmental phenomena in the first year. PMID:22982281

Infant humor perception from 3- to 6-months and attachment at one year.

PubMed

Mireault, Gina; Sparrow, John; Poutre, Merlin; Perdue, Brittany; Macke, Laura

2012-12-01

Infancy is a critical time for the development of secure attachment, which is facilitated by emotionally synchronous interactions with parents. Humor development, which includes shared laughter and joint attention to an event, emerges concurrently with attachment, but little is known regarding the relationship, if any, between humor development and attachment in the first year. Thirty 3-month-old infants were videoed at home each month until they were 6-months old while their parents attempted to amuse them. Frequency of infants' smiles and laughs served as a measure of "state humor", and the smiling/laughing subscale of the Infant Behavior Questionnaire-Revised served as a measure of "trait humor". State and trait humor were not correlated. Lower trait humor as 6 months predicted higher attachment security on the Attachment Q-sort at 12-months (r=.46), suggesting that less good-humored infants elicit greater parental engagement, which works to the benefit of attachment, or vice versa. Future studies should examine the importance of smiling and laughter as they relate to other developmental phenomena in the first year. Published by Elsevier Inc.

3 CFR 8813 - Proclamation 8813 of May 2, 2012. Jewish American Heritage Month, 2012

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

...; yet, through every obstacle, generations carried with them the deep conviction that a better future... upon all Americans to visit www.JewishHeritageMonth.gov to learn more about the heritage and...

Gross anatomy of superficial fascia and future localised fat deposit areas of the abdomen in foetus.

PubMed

Kumar, Pramod; Pandey, Arvind Kumar; Kumar, Brijesh; Aithal, K S; Dsouza, Antony Sylvan

2013-09-01

The development and popularity of body contouring procedures such as liposuction and abdominoplasty has renewed interest in the anatomy of the superficial fascia and subcutaneous fat deposits of the abdomen. The study of anatomy of fascia and fetal adipose tissue was proposed as it may be of value in understanding the possible programing of prevention of obesity. The present study was undertaken to understand the gross anatomy of superficial fascia of abdomen and to study the gross anatomy of future localized fat deposits (LFDs) area of abdomen in fetus. Four fetus (two male & two female) of four month of intrauterine life were dissected. Attachments & layers of superficial fascia and future subcutaneous fat deposit area of upper and lower abdomen were noted. Superficial fascia of the abdomen was multi layered in mid line and number of layers reduced laterally as in adult. The future abdominal LFD (localized fat deposits) area in fetus shows brownish-white blubbary tissue without well-defined adult fat lobules. The attachment and gross anatomy of superficial fascia of the fetus was similar to that in adults. The future LFD areas showed brownish white blubbary tissue with ill-defined fat lobules.

Seasonal presence of cetaceans and ambient noise levels in polar waters of the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Klinck, Holger; Nieukirk, Sharon L; Mellinger, David K; Klinck, Karolin; Matsumoto, Haruyoshi; Dziak, Robert P

2012-09-01

In 2009 two calibrated acoustic recorders were deployed in polar waters of the North Atlantic to study the seasonal occurrence of blue, fin, and sperm whales and to assess current ambient noise levels. Sounds from these cetaceans were recorded at both locations in most months of the year. During the summer months, seismic airguns associated with oil and gas exploration were audible for weeks at a time and dominated low frequency noise levels. Noise levels might further increase in the future as the receding sea ice enables extended human use of the area.

Associations between vertebral fractures, increased thoracic kyphosis, a flexed posture and falls in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

van der Jagt-Willems, Hanna C; de Groot, Maartje H; van Campen, Jos P C M; Lamoth, Claudine J C; Lems, Willem F

2015-03-28

Vertebral fractures, an increased thoracic kyphosis and a flexed posture are associated with falls. However, this was not confirmed in prospective studies. We performed a prospective cohort study to investigate the association between vertebral fractures, increased thoracic kyphosis and/or flexed posture with future fall incidents in older adults within the next year. Patients were recruited at a geriatric outpatient clinic. Vertebral fractures were evaluated on lateral radiographs of the spine with the semi-quantitative method of Genant; the degree of thoracic kyphosis was assessed with the Cobb angle. The occiput-to-wall distance was used to determine a flexed posture. Self-reported falls were prospectively registered by monthly phone contact for the duration of 12 months. Fifty-one older adults were included; mean age was 79 years (SD = 4.8). An increased thoracic kyphosis was independently associated with future falls (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.10-4.51). Prevalent vertebral fractures had a trend towards significancy (OR 3.67; 95% CI 0.85-15.9). A flexed posture was not significantly associated with future falls. Older adults with an increased thoracic kyphosis are more likely to fall within the next year. We suggest clinical attention for underlying causes. Because patients with increased thoracic curvature of the spine might have underlying osteoporotic vertebral fractures, clinicians should be aware of the risk of a new fracture.

Stress resilience in early marriage: can practice make perfect?

PubMed

Neff, Lisa A; Broady, Elizabeth F

2011-11-01

As all couples experience stressful life events, addressing how couples adapt to stress is imperative for understanding marital development. Drawing from theories of stress inoculation, which suggest that the successful adaptation to moderately stressful events may help individuals develop a resilience to future stress, the current studies examined whether experiences with manageable stressors early in the marriage may serve to make the relationship more resilient to future stress. In Study 1, 61 newlywed couples provided data regarding their stressful life events, relationship resources (i.e., observed problem-solving behaviors), and marital satisfaction at multiple points over 2½ years. Results revealed that among spouses displaying more effective problem-solving behaviors, those who experienced moderate stress during the early months of marriage exhibited fewer future stress spillover effects and reported greater increases in felt efficacy than did spouses who had less experience with early stress. Study 2 examined stress resilience following the transition to parenthood in a new sample of 50 newlywed couples. Again, spouses who experienced moderate stress during the early months of marriage and had good initial relationship resources (i.e., observed support behaviors) reported greater marital adjustment following the transition to parenthood than did spouses who had good initial resources but less prior experience coping with stress. Together, results indicate that entering marriage with better relationship resources may not be sufficient to shield marital satisfaction from the detrimental effects of stress; rather, couples may also need practice in using those resources to navigate manageable stressful events.

Vitamin E supplementation in people with cystic fibrosis.

PubMed

Okebukola, Peter O; Kansra, Sonal; Barrett, Joanne

2014-12-09

People with cystic fibrosis are at an increased risk of fat-soluble vitamin deficiency including vitamin E. Vitamin E deficiency can cause a host of conditions such as haemolytic anaemia, cerebellar ataxia and cognitive difficulties. Vitamin E supplementation is widely recommended in cystic fibrosis and aims to ameliorate this deficiency. To determine the effects of any level of vitamin E supplementation on the frequency of vitamin E deficiency disorders in people with cystic fibrosis. We searched the Cochrane Group's Cystic Fibrosis Trials Register and also searched international trial registers for any ongoing clinical trials that were not identified during our register search.Date of last search of the Register: 10 February 2014. Date of last search of international trial registers: 30 August 2014. Randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised controlled trials comparing any preparation of vitamin E supplementation to placebo or no supplement, regardless of dosage or duration. Two authors extracted outcome data from each study (published information) and assessed the risk of bias of each included study. Four studies with a total of 141 participants were included in the review, two of these were in children (aged six months to 14.5 years), and the other two did not specify participants' age. All studies used different formulations and doses of vitamin E for various durations of treatment (10 days to six months). Two studies compared the supplementation of fat-soluble as well as water-soluble formulations to no supplementation in different arms of the same study. A third study compared a water-soluble formulation to a placebo; and in the fourth study a fat-soluble formulation of vitamin E was assessed against placebo.At one month, three months and six months, water-soluble vitamin E significantly improved serum vitamin E levels compared with control: at one month, two studies, mean difference 17.66 (95% confidence interval 10.59 to 24.74); at three months, one study, mean difference 11.61 (95% confidence interval 4.77 to 18.45); and at six months, one study, mean difference 19.74 (95% confidence interval 13.48 to 26.00). At one month fat-soluble vitamin E significantly improved serum vitamin E levels compared with control: one month, two studies, mean difference 13.59 (95% CI 9.52 to 17.66). The findings at three months were imprecise; one study; mean difference 6.40 (95% CI -1.45 to 14.25).None of the studies report the review's primary outcomes of vitamin E total lipid ratio or the incidence of vitamin E-specific deficiency disorders, or the secondary outcomes lung function or quality of life. Only one study, comparing water-soluble vitamin E with placebo, reported the secondary outcome of growth and nutritional status (weight), but the results are uncertain due to imprecision around the effect estimate.There was limited detail about randomisation and blinding in the included studies which compromises the quality of the evidence base for the review. The heterogeneous mix of the formulations with differing biovailabilities among these studies also limits the generalisability of the data to the wider cystic fibrosis population. Vitamin E supplementation led to an improvement in vitamin E levels in people with cystic fibrosis, although the studies may have been at risk of bias. No data on other outcomes of interest were available to allow conclusions about any other benefits of this therapy.In future, larger studies are needed, especially in people already being treated with enteric-coated pancreatic enzymes and supplemented with vitamin E, to look at more specific outcome measures such as vitamin E status, lung function and nutritional status. Future studies could also look at the optimal dose of vitamin E required to achieve maximal clinical effectiveness.

Vitamin E supplementation in people with cystic fibrosis.

PubMed

Okebukola, Peter O; Kansra, Sonal; Barrett, Joanne

2017-03-06

People with cystic fibrosis are at an increased risk of fat-soluble vitamin deficiency including vitamin E. Vitamin E deficiency can cause a host of conditions such as haemolytic anaemia, cerebellar ataxia and cognitive difficulties. Vitamin E supplementation is widely recommended in cystic fibrosis and aims to ameliorate this deficiency. This is an updated version of the review. To determine the effects of any level of vitamin E supplementation on the frequency of vitamin E deficiency disorders in people with cystic fibrosis. We searched the Cochrane Group's Cystic Fibrosis Trials Register and also searched international trial registers for any ongoing clinical trials that were not identified during our register search.Date of last search of the Register: 10 October 2016. Date of last search of international trial registers: 15 February 2017. Randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised controlled trials comparing any preparation of vitamin E supplementation to placebo or no supplement, regardless of dosage or duration. Two authors extracted outcome data from each study (published information) and assessed the risk of bias of each included study. Four studies with a total of 141 participants were included in the review, two of these were in children (aged six months to 14.5 years), and the other two did not specify participants' age. All studies used different formulations and doses of vitamin E for various durations of treatment (10 days to six months). Two studies compared the supplementation of fat-soluble as well as water-soluble formulations to no supplementation in different arms of the same study. A third study compared a water-soluble formulation to a placebo; and in the fourth study a fat-soluble formulation of vitamin E was assessed against placebo.At one month, three months and six months, water-soluble vitamin E significantly improved serum vitamin E levels compared with control: at one month, two studies, mean difference 17.66 (95% confidence interval 10.59 to 24.74); at three months, one study, mean difference 11.61 (95% confidence interval 4.77 to 18.45); and at six months, one study, mean difference 19.74 (95% confidence interval 13.48 to 26.00). At one month fat-soluble vitamin E significantly improved serum vitamin E levels compared with control: one month, two studies, mean difference 13.59 (95% CI 9.52 to 17.66). The findings at three months were imprecise; one study; mean difference 6.40 (95% confidence interval -1.45 to 14.25).None of the studies report the review's primary outcomes of vitamin E total lipid ratio or the incidence of vitamin E-specific deficiency disorders, or the secondary outcomes lung function or quality of life. Only one study, comparing water-soluble vitamin E with placebo, reported the secondary outcome of growth and nutritional status (weight), but the results are uncertain due to imprecision around the effect estimate.There was limited detail about randomisation and blinding in the included studies which compromises the quality of the evidence base for the review. The heterogeneous mix of the formulations with differing biovailabilities among these studies also limits the generalisability of the data to the wider cystic fibrosis population. Vitamin E supplementation led to an improvement in vitamin E levels in people with cystic fibrosis, although the studies may have been at risk of bias. No data on other outcomes of interest were available to allow conclusions about any other benefits of this therapy.In future, larger studies are needed, especially in people already being treated with enteric-coated pancreatic enzymes and supplemented with vitamin E, to look at more specific outcome measures such as vitamin E status, lung function and nutritional status. Future studies could also look at the optimal dose of vitamin E required to achieve maximal clinical effectiveness.

[Breast Cancer: Value-Based Healthcare, Costs and Financing].

PubMed

Harfouche, Ana; Silva, Silvia; Faria, João; Araújo, Rui; Gouveia, António; Lacerda, Maria; D'Orey, Luís

2017-11-29

Breast cancer is the second most common oncological disease worldwide. To analyse the new disease specific funding programme (breast cancer) implemented at the Francisco Gentil Portuguese Institute of Oncology, Lisbon Center (Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa Francisco Gentil), the actual costs of the patients were examined using activity-based costing as a costing methodology. This study addresses the following question: "How much does it cost to treat breast cancer per 'patient-month' compared to the monthly fixed 'funding envelope'?". The study cohort consisted of 807 patients, corresponding to all the patients eligible for the new disease specific funding programme and who were enrolled during the first year of implementation. Activity-based costing was used to calculate the total real costs per stage of disease and per 'patient-month' as well as the deviation from the monthly fixed 'funding envelope'. The total costs were 6.6 M€, whereas the total funding was 5.2 M€ for a total of 5648 'patient-months'. In 2014, the balance difference between the funding obtained and the actual costs was -1.4 €M for the cohort of 807 patients. The extreme cases of differences in cost per 'patient-month' compared to the monthly fixed 'funding envelope' were (i) stage 0/Tis, with higher funding at 415.23 € per 'patient-month', and (ii) stage IIIC, with lower funding at 1062.79 € per 'patient-month'. The 'patient-month' cost, regardless of disease stage was 1170.29 €. The median deviation per 'patient-month' was negative (241.21 €) compared to the monthly fixed 'funding envelope' of 929.08 € in the first year. Establishing activity-based costing - funding models will be crucial for the future sustainability of the healthcare sector.

Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2005-05-01

Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From the estimation of present stress level (withdrawal to resource ratio), the months between January to May was found to have the highest number of population above water stress level, while the months between June to August having lower population in stress. The regions suffering from high seasonal variability are those of Asian monsoon zone, south-central Africa and central-east part of South America. Inter-annual variability, on the other hand, is dominant mostly along the Middle-east or Sahara regions and the western part of South America and Latin America. Virtual water trading among countries was estimated on per capita basis. It shows that many Middle east countries are able to compensate their water stress significantly through virtual water trading. The overall effect of climate change on lowering of river runoff mostly affected Europe, southern part of China and Latin America. India or Central Africa have better runoff availability under changing climate, but still subject to a higher water stress because of socio-economic factors like high population growth and expected increase in rate of water uses. Decrease in population as well as saturation level of maximum water uses along most European countries, on the contrary, relaxed the pressure of lowering river runoff, causing no significant change in future stress.

Genetic Variations of COL4A1 Gene and Intracerebral Hemorrhage Outcome: A Cohort Study in a Chinese Han Population.

PubMed

Xia, Chao; Lin, Sen; Yang, Jie; He, Sha; Li, Hao; Liu, Ming; You, Chao

2018-05-01

To investigate the relationship between single nucleotide polymorphisms or haplotypes of COL4A1 gene and the outcome of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). In our study, 181 patients with hypertensive ICH were enrolled and followed up at 3 and 6 months. Outcome data included any cause of death and disability. Genomic DNA was extracted by DNA extraction kit, and the 6 single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping of the COL4A1 gene was detected through MassARRAY Analyzer. Unphased 3.1.4 and SPSS 19.0 were used to analyze the association between alleles, genotypes, and haplotypes of the COL4A1 gene and the outcomes of ICH. Of the 181 patients with hypertensive ICH, 12 were lost in follow-up, which accounted for 6.6%. Our association analysis showed that the rs532625 AA genotype of the COL4A1 gene may increase risk of disability at 3 months; the rs532625 A allele and AA genotype were association factors of the risk of disability at 6 months; the rs532625 AA genotype was an association factor of the risk of death/disability at 6 months. After adjusting for gender, age, coma, and severe neurologic deficits, only the rs532625 AA genotype was independently associated with the risk of disability at 3 and 6 months and the risk of death/disability at 6 months. Our study found that the rs532625 AA genotype in the COL4A1 gene was independently associated with the risk of disability at 3 and 6 months and death/disability at 6 months in a Chinese Han population. These conclusions need to be verified in future studies with larger samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in sexual functioning from 6 to 12 months following traumatic brain injury: a prospective TBI model system multicenter study.

PubMed

Hanks, Robin A; Sander, Angelle M; Millis, Scott R; Hammond, Flora M; Maestas, Kacey L

2013-01-01

To investigate longitudinal changes in sexual functioning during the first year following moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Prospective cohort study. Community. 182 persons (53 women and 129 men) with moderate to severe TBI who were admitted to 1 of 6 participating TBI Model System centers and followed in the community at 6 and 12 months after injury. Derogatis Interview for Sexual Functioning-Self-Report (DISF-SR); Global Sexual Satisfaction Index (GSSI). Mean T-scores on the DISF-SR Arousal subscale demonstrated marginal improvement over time, with a 2.59-point increase (P = .05) from 6 to 12 months after injury. There were no significant differences over this 6-month period on the remaining DISF-SR subscales, including sexual cognition/fantasy, sexual behavior/experience, and orgasm. There was no significant change in satisfaction with sexual functioning on the GSSI from 6 months (72% satisfied) to 12 months (71% satisfied). Sexual function and satisfaction appears to be stable in those with moderate to severe TBI from 6 to 12 months after injury, with the exception of minimal improvement in arousal. These findings, to our knowledge, reflect the first evidence regarding prospective changes in sexual functioning in this population. Future research can go far to assist clinicians in treatment planning and managing patient expectations of recovery of sexual functioning after TBI.

Scaling and Multiscaling in Financial Time Series

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-07

stable process (Mandelbrot, Fama , 1963) The return process X(t) satisfies: dX(t) = µ dt + σ dLα(t) where Lα(t) is an α-stable Levy process. The returns r...year Future JY/USD 7.104 0.02 6 months Nikkei 225 7.104 0.030 1.5 year Future Nikkei 7.104 0.02 6 months Japanese Yen 7.104 0.022 1.0 year French index...the horizon) - Optimal portfolios are stable by linear superposition. → CAPM : Relates the mean return of some asset to its covariance with the

Emotional distress impacts fear of the future among breast cancer survivors not the reverse.

PubMed

Lebel, Sophie; Rosberger, Zeev; Edgar, Linda; Devins, Gerald M

2009-06-01

Fear of the future is one of the most stressful aspects of having cancer. Research to date has conceptualized fear of the future as a precursor of distress or stress-response symptoms. Yet it is equally plausible that distress would predict increased fear of the future or that they would have a reciprocal influence on each other. The purpose of the present study was to examine the bidirectional relations between fear of the future and distress as well as intrusion and avoidance among breast cancer survivors at 3, 7, 11, and 15 months after diagnosis. We used a bivariate latent difference score model for dynamic change to examine these bidirectional relationships among 146 early-stage breast cancer survivors. Using Lisrel version 8.80, we examined four models testing different hypothesized relationships between fear of the future and distress and intrusion and avoidance. Based on model fit evaluation, our data shows that decreases in distress over time lead to a reduction of fear of the future but that changes in fear do not lead to changes in distress. On the other hand, there is no relationship between changes in fear of the future and intrusion and avoidance over time. Ongoing fear of the future does not appear to be a necessary condition for the development of stress-response symptoms. Future studies need to explore the role of distressing emotions in the development and exacerbation of fear of the future among cancer survivors.

Foster home integration as a temporal indicator of relational well-being.

PubMed

Waid, Jeffrey; Kothari, Brianne H; McBeath, Bowen M; Bank, Lew

2017-12-01

This study sought to identify factors that contribute to the relational well-being of youth in substitute care. Using data from the [BLIND] study, youth responded to a 9-item measure of positive home integration, a scale designed to assess the relational experiences of youth to their caregivers and their integration into the foster home. Data were collected from youth in six month intervals, for an 18-month period of time. Latent growth curve modeling procedures were employed to determine if child, family, and case characteristics influenced youth's home integration trajectories. Results suggest stability in youth reports of home integration over time; however, children who were older at the time of study enrollment and youth who experienced placement changes during the period of observation experienced decreased home integration during the 18-month period. Results suggest youth's perspectives of home integration may in part be a function of the child's developmental stage and their experiences with foster care placement instability. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.

Explanation of Change (EoC) Study: Considerations and Implementation Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bitten, Robert E.; Emmons, Debra L.; Hart, Matthew J.; Bordi, Francesco; Scolese, Christopher; Hinners, Noel

2013-01-01

This paper discusses the implementation of considerations resulting from a study investigating the cost change experienced by historical NASA science missions. The study investigated historical milestone and monthly status report documentation followed by interviews with key project personnel. The reasons for cost change were binned as being external to NASA, external to the project and internal to the project relative to the project's planning and execution. Based on the results of the binning process and the synthesis of project meetings and interviews, ten considerations were made with the objective to decrease the potential for cost change in future missions. Although no one magic bullet consideration was discovered, the considerations taken as a whole should help reduce cost and schedule change in future NASA missions.

Developmental trajectory from early responses to transgressions to future antisocial behavior: Evidence for the role of the parent-child relationship from two longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna; Boldt, Lea J.; Nordling, Jamie Koenig; O’Bleness, Jessica J.

2014-01-01

Parent-child relationships are critical in development, but much remains to be learned about mechanisms of their impact. We examined early parent-child relationship as a moderator of the developmental trajectory from children’s affective and behavioral responses to transgressions to future antisocial, externalizing behavior problems in Family Study (102 community mothers, fathers, and infants, followed through age 8) and Play Study (186 low-income, diverse mothers and toddlers, followed for 10 months). The relationship quality was indexed by attachment security in Family Study and maternal responsiveness in Play Study. Responses to transgressions (tense discomfort and reparation) were observed in laboratory mishaps that led children to believe they had damaged a valued object. Antisocial outcomes were rated by parents. In both studies, early relationship moderated the future developmental trajectory: Children’s attenuated tense discomfort predicted more antisocial outcomes, but only in insecure or unresponsive relationships. That risk was defused in secure or responsive relationships. Moderated mediation analyses in Family Study indicated that the links between low tense discomfort and future antisocial behavior in insecure parent-child dyads were mediated by parental stronger discipline pressure. By influencing indirectly future developmental sequelae, early relationship may increase or decrease the probability that the parent-child dyad will embark on a path toward antisocial outcomes. PMID:24280347

Developmental trajectory from early responses to transgressions to future antisocial behavior: evidence for the role of the parent-child relationship from two longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna; Boldt, Lea J; Nordling, Jamie Koenig; O'Bleness, Jessica J

2014-02-01

Parent-child relationships are critical in development, but much remains to be learned about the mechanisms of their impact. We examined the early parent-child relationship as a moderator of the developmental trajectory from children's affective and behavioral responses to transgressions to future antisocial, externalizing behavior problems in the Family Study (102 community mothers, fathers, and infants, followed through age 8) and the Play Study (186 low-income, diverse mothers and toddlers, followed for 10 months). The relationship quality was indexed by attachment security in the Family Study and maternal responsiveness in the Play Study. Responses to transgressions (tense discomfort and reparation) were observed in laboratory mishaps wherein children believed they had damaged a valued object. Antisocial outcomes were rated by parents. In both studies, early relationships moderated the future developmental trajectory: diminished tense discomfort predicted more antisocial outcomes, but only in insecure or unresponsive relationships. That risk was defused in secure or responsive relationships. Moderated mediation analyses in the Family Study indicated that the links between diminished tense discomfort and future antisocial behavior in insecure parent-child dyads were mediated by stronger discipline pressure from parents. By indirectly influencing future developmental sequelae, early relationships may increase or decrease the probability that the parent-child dyad will embark on a path toward antisocial outcomes.

Chronic preclinical safety evaluation of EPO-018B, a pegylated peptidic erythropoiesis-stimulating agent in monkeys and rats

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gong, Xue-Lian; Gu, Xiao-Lei

EPO-018B, a synthetic peptide-based erythropoiesis stimulating agent (ESA), is mainly designed for treatment of anemia caused by chronic renal failure and chemotherapy against cancer. It overcomes the deficiencies of currently approved ESA, including the frequent administration of temperature-sensitive recombinant protein and anti-EPO antibody-mediated pure red cell aplasia (PRCA). This study was designed to evaluate the potential chronic toxicity of EPO-018B. Subcutaneous administration doses were designed as 0, 0.2, 1 and 10 mg/kg for six months for 160 rats (20/gender/group) and 0, 0.3, 3 and 20 mg/kg for nine months for 32 monkeys (4/gender/group) once every three weeks. The vehicles receivedmore » the same volume of physiological saline injection. All animals survived to the scheduled necropsies after six weeks (for rats) and fourteen weeks (for monkeys) recovery period, except for the two high-dose female rats and two high-dose male monkeys, which were considered related to the increased RBCs, chronic blood hyperviscosity and chronic cardiac injury. EPO-018B is supposed to be subcutaneously injected once every month and the intended human therapeutic dose is 0.025 mg/kg. The study findings at 0.2 mg/kg for rats and 0.3 mg/kg for monkeys were considered to be the study NOAEL (the no observed adverse effect level), which were more than ten times the intended human therapeutic dose. Higher doses caused adverse effects related to the liver toxicity, cardiotoxicity, appearance of neutralizing antibodies of EPO-018B and the decrease of serum glucose and cholesterol. Most treatment-induced effects were reversible or revealed ongoing recovery upon the discontinuation of treatment. The sequelae occurred in rats and monkeys were considered secondary to exaggerated pharmacology and would less likely occur in the intended patient population. As to the differences between human beings and animals, the safety of EPO-018B need to be further confirmed in the future clinical studies. - Highlights: • EPO-018B is a newly developed synthetic peptide-based ESA. • The evaluation contained studies of 6 months in rats and 9 months in monkeys. • The safety studies provided further evidences in future clinical trials. • Most toxic effects were reversible and need more evidences in clinical studies.« less

Deriving low-risk gambling limits from longitudinal data collected in two independent Canadian studies.

PubMed

Currie, Shawn R; Hodgins, David C; Casey, David M; El-Guebaly, Nady; Smith, Garry J; Williams, Robert J; Schopflocher, Don P

2017-11-01

To derive low-risk gambling limits using the method developed by Currie et al. (2006) applied to longitudinal data. Secondary analysis of data from the Quinte Longitudinal Study (n = 3054) and Leisure, Lifestyle and Lifecycle Project (n = 809), two independently conducted cohort studies of the natural progression of gambling in Canadian adults. Community-dwelling adults in Southeastern Ontario and Alberta, Canada. A total of 3863 adults (50% male; median age = 44) who reported gambling in the past year. Gambling behaviours (typical monthly frequency, total expenditure and percentage of income spent on gambling) and harm (experiencing two or more consequences of gambling in the past 12 months) were assessed with the Canadian Problem Gambling Index. The dose-response relationship was comparable in both studies for frequency of gambling (days per month), total expenditure and percentage of household income spent on gambling (area under the curve values ranged from 0.66 to 0.74). Based on the optimal sensitivity and specificity values, the low-risk gambling cut-offs were eight times per month, $75CAN total per month and 1.7% of income spent on gambling. Gamblers who exceeded any of these limits at time 1 were approximately four times more likely to report harm at time 2 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.9-6.6]. Longitudinal data in Canada suggest low-risk gambling thresholds of eight times per month, $75CAN total per month and 1.7% of income spent on gambling, all of which are higher than previously derived limits from cross-sectional data. Gamblers who exceed any of the three low-risk limits are four times more likely to experience future harm than those who do not. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Aversive and non-aversive memory impairment in the mucopolysaccharidosis II mouse model.

PubMed

Azambuja, Amanda Stapenhorst; Correa, Lilian; Gabiatti, Bernardo Pappi; Martins, Giselle Renata; de Oliveira Franco, Álvaro; Ribeiro, Maria Flávia Marques; Baldo, Guilherme

2018-02-01

Hunter syndrome (MPS II, OMIM 309900) is a lysosomal storage disorder due to deficient iduronate sulphatase activity. Patients present multiple cognitive alterations, and the aim of this work was to verify if MPS II mice also present some progressive cognitive alterations. For that, MPS II mice from 2 to 6 months of age were submitted to repeated open field and inhibitory avoidance tests to evaluate memory parameters. MPS II mice presented impaired memory at 6 months evaluated by open field test. They also performed poorly in the inhibitory avoidance test from 4 months. We conclude that MPS II mice develop cognitive alterations as the disease progresses. These tests can be used in the future to study the efficacy of therapeutic approaches in the central nervous system.

Comparative analysis of three screening instruments for autism spectrum disorder in toddlers at high risk.

PubMed

Oosterling, Iris J; Swinkels, Sophie H; van der Gaag, Rutger Jan; Visser, Janne C; Dietz, Claudine; Buitelaar, Jan K

2009-06-01

Several instruments have been developed to screen for autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in high-risk populations. However, few studies compare different instruments in one sample. Data were gathered from the Early Screening of Autistic Traits Questionnaire, Social Communication Questionnaire, Communication and Symbolic Behavior Scales-Developmental Profile, Infant-Toddler Checklist and key items of the Checklist for Autism in Toddlers in 238 children (mean age = 29.6 months, SD = 6.4) at risk for ASD. Discriminative properties are compared in the whole sample and in two age groups separately (8-24 months and 25-44 months). No instrument or individual item shows satisfying power in discriminating ASD from non-ASD, but pros and cons of instruments and items are discussed and directions for future research are proposed.

Revisit, Subsequent Hospitalization, Recurrent Fall, and Death Within 6 Months After a Fall Among Elderly Emergency Department Patients.

PubMed

Sri-On, Jiraporn; Tirrell, Gregory P; Bean, Jonathan F; Lipsitz, Lewis A; Liu, Shan W

2017-10-01

We seek to describe the risk during 6 months and specific risk factors for recurrent falls, emergency department (ED) revisits, subsequent hospitalizations, and death within 6 months after a fall-related ED presentation. This was a secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort of elderly fall patients who presented to the ED from one urban teaching hospital. We included patients aged 65 years and older who had an ED fall visit in 2012. We examined the frequency and risk factors of adverse events (composite of recurrent falls, ED revisits, subsequent hospitalization, and death, selected a priori) at 6 months. Our study included 350 older adults. Adverse events steadily increased, from 7.7% at 7 days, 21.4% at 30 days, and 50.3% at 6 months. Within 6 months, 22.6% of patients had at least one recurrent fall, 42.6% revisited the ED, 31.1% had subsequent hospitalizations, and 2.6% died. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, psychological or sedative drug use predicted recurrent falls, ED revisits, subsequent hospitalizations, and adverse events. More than half of fall patients had an adverse event within 6 months of presenting to the ED after a fall. The risk during 6 months of these adverse events increased with psychological or sedative drug use. Larger future studies should confirm this association and investigate methods to minimize recurrent falls through management of such medications. Copyright © 2017 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationships of Race and Socioeconomic Status to Postpartum Depressive Symptoms in Rural African American and Non-Hispanic White Women

PubMed Central

Dolbier, Christyn L.; Rush, Taylor E.; Sahadeo, Latoya S.; Shaffer, Michele L.; Thorp, John

2012-01-01

This study examines the potential racial disparity in postpartum depression (PPD) symptoms among a cohort of non-Hispanic white and African American women after taking into consideration the influence of socioeconomic status (SES). Participants (N = 299) were recruited from maternity clinics serving rural counties, with over-sampling of low SES and African Americans. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was administered 1 and 6 months postpartum, and subjective SES scale at 6 months postpartum. Demographic information was collected during enrollment and 1 month postpartum, with updates at 6 months postpartum. Separate logistic regressions were conducted for 1 and 6 month time points for minor-major PPD (EPDS ≥ 10) and major PPD (EPDS > 12); with marital status, poverty, education, subjective SES, and race predictors entered in block sequence. After including all other predictors, race was not a significant predictor of minor-major or major PPD at 1 or 6 months postpartum. Subjective SES was the most consistent predictor of PPD, being significantly associated with minor-major PPD and major PPD at 6 months postpartum, with higher subjective SES indicating lower odds of PPD, even after accounting for all other predictors. This study shows that significant racial disparities were not observed for minor-major or major PPD criteria at 1 or 6 months postpartum. The most consistent and significant predictor of PPD was subjective SES. Implications of these findings for future research, as well as PPD screening and intervention are discussed. PMID:22961387

Efficacy and safety of cross-linked hyaluronic acid single injection on osteoarthritis of the knee: a post-marketing Phase IV study

PubMed Central

Bashaireh, Khaldoon; Naser, Ziad; Hawadya, Khaled Al; Sorour, Sorour; Al-Khateeb, Rami Nabeel

2015-01-01

Purpose The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and duration of action of viscosupplementation with Crespine® Gel over a 9-month period. Materials and methods The study was a post-marketing Phase IV study. A total of 109 participants with osteoarthritis of the knee (grades 1–4) in the tibio–femoral compartment were recruited in Jordan. Data were collected from each participant during the baseline visit. Each participant received Crespine® Gel injection, and follow-up visits took place at 3 months, 6 months, and 9 months post-injection. Main outcome measure(s) An assessment of participants by phone was conducted at 1 month, 2 months, 4 months, 5 months, 7 months, and 8 months post-injection. Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index questionnaires were completed during each visit. A 72-hour visit questionnaire was used to assess the safety of the injection. Statistical analysis included a two-sided 95% confidence interval for the difference between pain scores across visits, and the percent change from baseline was calculated. Main results The full analysis included 84 participants who gave their informed consent and finished the necessary baseline and follow-up visits needed to assess efficacy and safety. Peak improvement was noted at 5 months post-injection, when pain and physical performance scores had decreased to 2.60 and 9.90, respectively, and the stiffness score was 0.33. The peak improvement in stiffness was noted at 8 months post-injection, when the stiffness score had decreased to 0.32. Significant improvements were still apparent at 9 months post-injection, when the pain score was 3.36, the stiffness score was 0.42, and the physical performance score was 11.5. All side effects were local and transient, and included pain, swelling, and redness of the knee. Most side effects were treated. Conclusion Hyaluronan should be encouraged as an alternative or adjunct treatment to oral analgesics to reduce their required doses, and delay potential future surgical intervention. PMID:25897212

Attack-Related Life Disruption and Child Psychopathology in New York City Public Schoolchildren 6-Months Post-9/11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Comer, Jonathan S.; Fan, Bin; Duarte, Cristiane S.; Wu, Ping; Musa, George J.; Mandell, Donald J.; Albano, Anne Marie; Hoven, Christina W.

2010-01-01

In the aftermath of disasters, understanding relationships between disaster-related life disruption and children's functioning is key to informing future postdisaster intervention efforts. The present study examined attack-related life disruptions and psychopathology in a representative sample (N = 8,236) of New York City public schoolchildren…

Middle Childhood Support-Seeking Behavior during Stress: Links with Self-Reported Attachment and Future Depressive Symptoms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dujardin, Adinda; Santens, Tara; Braet, Caroline; De Raedt, Rudi; Vos, Pieter; Maes, Bea; Bosmans, Guy

2016-01-01

This study tested whether children's more anxious and avoidant attachment is linked to decreased support-seeking behavior toward their mother during stress in middle childhood, and whether children's decreased support-seeking behavior enhances the impact of experiencing life events on the increase of depressive symptoms 18 months later.…

The role of objects and effects in action imitation: Comparing the imitation of object-related actions vs. gestures in 18-month-old infants.

PubMed

Kim, Ziyon; Óturai, Gabriella; Király, Ildikó; Knopf, Monika

2015-11-01

This study aimed to systematically investigate 18-month-old infants' imitation of object-related actions compared to motorically similar gestures. An additional goal of the study was to examine the role of action effects on infants' imitation of target actions. One group of infants (n=17) observed object-related actions and gestures leading to salient effects (sounds or visual resp. social effects), and the other group (n=16) watched the same actions without effects. Furthermore, this study examined whether infants show a consistent imitation ability for object-related actions and gestures. First, the present study showed that 18-month-old infants imitated object-related actions more frequently than gestures. Second, the presence of an effect significantly increased the imitation rate of object-related actions; however, this difference was not found for gestures. Third, indications for a general imitation ability were found as results on an individual level showed that object-related action imitation significantly correlated with gesture imitation. Implications of the results for theory and future studies are discussed with a focus on the role of objects and effects in 18-month-old infants' action imitation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Internalized stigma of mental illness and depressive and psychotic symptoms in homeless veterans over 6 months.

PubMed

Boyd, Jennifer E; Hayward, H'Sien; Bassett, Elena D; Hoff, Rani

2016-06-30

We investigated the relationship between internalized stigma of mental illness at baseline and depressive and psychotic symptoms 3 and 6 months later, controlling for baseline symptoms. Data on homeless veterans with severe mental illness (SMI) were provided by the Northeast Program Evaluation Center (NEPEC) Special Needs-Chronic Mental Illness (SN-CMI) study (Kasprow and Rosenheck, 2008). The study used the Internalized Stigma of Mental Illness (ISMI) scale to measure internalized stigma at baseline and the Symptom Checklist-90-R (SCL-90-R) to measure depressive and psychotic symptoms at baseline and 3 and 6 month follow-ups. Higher levels of internalized stigma were associated with greater levels of depressive and psychotic symptoms 3 and 6 months later, even controlling for symptoms at baseline. Alienation and Discrimination Experience were the subscales most strongly associated with symptoms. Exploratory analyses of individual items yielded further insight into characteristics of potentially successful interventions that could be studied. Overall, our findings show that homeless veterans with SMI experiencing higher levels of internalized stigma are likely to experience more depression and psychosis over time. This quasi-experimental study replicates and extends findings of other studies and has implications for future controlled research into the potential long-term effects of anti-stigma interventions on mental health recovery. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

External validation of a simple clinical tool used to predict falls in people with Parkinson disease

PubMed Central

Duncan, Ryan P.; Cavanaugh, James T.; Earhart, Gammon M.; Ellis, Terry D.; Ford, Matthew P.; Foreman, K. Bo; Leddy, Abigail L.; Paul, Serene S.; Canning, Colleen G.; Thackeray, Anne; Dibble, Leland E.

2015-01-01

Background Assessment of fall risk in an individual with Parkinson disease (PD) is a critical yet often time consuming component of patient care. Recently a simple clinical prediction tool based only on fall history in the previous year, freezing of gait in the past month, and gait velocity <1.1 m/s was developed and accurately predicted future falls in a sample of individuals with PD. METHODS We sought to externally validate the utility of the tool by administering it to a different cohort of 171 individuals with PD. Falls were monitored prospectively for 6 months following predictor assessment. RESULTS The tool accurately discriminated future fallers from non-fallers (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.83; 95% CI 0.76 –0.89), comparable to the developmental study. CONCLUSION The results validated the utility of the tool for allowing clinicians to quickly and accurately identify an individual’s risk of an impending fall. PMID:26003412

External validation of a simple clinical tool used to predict falls in people with Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Duncan, Ryan P; Cavanaugh, James T; Earhart, Gammon M; Ellis, Terry D; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K Bo; Leddy, Abigail L; Paul, Serene S; Canning, Colleen G; Thackeray, Anne; Dibble, Leland E

2015-08-01

Assessment of fall risk in an individual with Parkinson disease (PD) is a critical yet often time consuming component of patient care. Recently a simple clinical prediction tool based only on fall history in the previous year, freezing of gait in the past month, and gait velocity <1.1 m/s was developed and accurately predicted future falls in a sample of individuals with PD. We sought to externally validate the utility of the tool by administering it to a different cohort of 171 individuals with PD. Falls were monitored prospectively for 6 months following predictor assessment. The tool accurately discriminated future fallers from non-fallers (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.83; 95% CI 0.76-0.89), comparable to the developmental study. The results validated the utility of the tool for allowing clinicians to quickly and accurately identify an individual's risk of an impending fall. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. PMID:21304515

Temporal Variability of Oral Microbiota over 10 Months and the Implications for Future Epidemiologic Studies.

PubMed

Vogtmann, Emily; Hua, Xing; Zhou, Liang; Wan, Yunhu; Suman, Shalabh; Zhu, Bin; Dagnall, Casey L; Hutchinson, Amy; Jones, Kristine; Hicks, Belynda D; Sinha, Rashmi; Shi, Jianxin; Abnet, Christian C

2018-05-01

Background: Few studies have prospectively evaluated the association between oral microbiota and health outcomes. Precise estimates of the intrasubject microbial metric stability will allow better study planning. Therefore, we conducted a study to evaluate the temporal variability of oral microbiota. Methods: Forty individuals provided six oral samples using the OMNIgene ORAL kit and Scope mouthwash oral rinses approximately every two months over 10 months. DNA was extracted using the QIAsymphony and the V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene was amplified and sequenced using the MiSeq. To estimate temporal variation, we calculated intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for a variety of metrics and examined stability after clustering samples into distinct community types using Dirichlet multinomial models (DMMs). Results: The ICCs for the alpha diversity measures were high, including for number of observed bacterial species [0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65-0.82 and 0.79; 95% CI: 0.75-0.94] from OMNIgene ORAL and Scope mouthwash, respectively. The ICCs for the relative abundance of the top four phyla and beta diversity matrices were lower. Three clusters provided the best model fit for the DMM from the OMNIgene ORAL samples, and the probability of remaining in a specific cluster was high (59.5%-80.7%). Conclusions: The oral microbiota appears to be stable over time for multiple metrics, but some measures, particularly relative abundance, were less stable. Impact: We used this information to calculate stability-adjusted power calculations that will inform future field study protocols and experimental analytic designs. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(5); 594-600. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Projecting the potential evapotranspiration by coupling different formulations and input data reliabilities: The possible uncertainty source for climate change impacts on hydrological regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiguang; Li, Changni; Xing, Wanqiu; Fu, Jianyu

2017-12-01

Representing atmospheric evaporating capability for a hypothetical reference surface, potential evapotranspiration (PET) determines the upper limit of actual evapotranspiration and is an important input to hydrological models. Due that present climate models do not give direct estimates of PET when simulating the hydrological response to future climate change, the PET must be estimated first and is subject to the uncertainty on account of many existing formulae and different input data reliabilities. Using four different PET estimation approaches, i.e., the more physically Penman (PN) equation with less reliable input variables, more empirical radiation-based Priestley-Taylor (PT) equation with relatively dependable downscaled data, the most simply temperature-based Hamon (HM) equation with the most reliable downscaled variable, and downscaling PET directly by the statistical downscaling model, this paper investigated the differences of runoff projection caused by the alternative PET methods by a well calibrated abcd monthly hydrological model. Three catchments, i.e., the Luanhe River Basin, the Source Region of the Yellow River and the Ganjiang River Basin, representing a large climatic diversity were chosen as examples to illustrate this issue. The results indicated that although similar monthly patterns of PET over the period 2021-2050 for each catchment were provided by the four methods, the magnitudes of PET were still slightly different, especially for spring and summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with relatively dry climate feature. The apparent discrepancy in magnitude of change in future runoff and even the diverse change direction for summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and spring months in the Source Region of the Yellow River indicated that the PET method related uncertainty occurred, especially in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with smaller aridity index. Moreover, the possible reason of discrepancies in uncertainty between three catchments was quantitatively discussed by the contribution analysis based on climatic elasticity method. This study can provide beneficial reference to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and thus improve the regional strategy for future water resource management.

Perceived Reasons for Living at Index Hospitalization and Future Suicide Attempt

PubMed Central

Lizardi, Dana; Currier, Diane; Galfalvy, Hanga; Sher, Leo; Burke, Ainsley; Mann, John; Oquendo, Maria

2013-01-01

It is unclear why certain individuals choose not to engage in suicidal behavior. Although important, protective factors against suicidal behavior have seldom been studied. The Reasons for Living Inventory is a measure of putative protective factors that is inversely related to a history of suicide attempts, but its predictive utility remains relatively untested. This study sought to determine whether the Reasons for Living Inventory predicts future suicide attempts over a 2-year period. Depressed inpatients were assessed for reasons for living and were followed for 2 years. Follow-up interviews took place at 3 months, 1 year, and 2 years after discharge from the index hospitalization. Survival analysis indicates a high score on the Reasons for Living Inventory predicted fewer future suicide attempts within a 2-year period in women but not in men. Perceived reasons for living serve as protective factors against suicide attempt in women and not in men. PMID:17502812

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

PubMed

Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

2016-11-22

Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Perceived Infant Outcomes at 18–24 Months: Neural and Psychological Correlates of Parental Thoughts and Actions Assessed during the First Month Postpartum

PubMed Central

Kim, Pilyoung; Rigo, Paola; Leckman, James F.; Mayes, Linda C.; Cole, Pamela M.; Feldman, Ruth; Swain, James E.

2015-01-01

The first postpartum months constitute a critical period for parents to establish an emotional bond with their infants. Neural responses to infant-related stimuli have been associated with parental sensitivity. However, the associations among these neural responses, parenting, and later infant outcomes for mothers and fathers are unknown. In the current longitudinal study, we investigated the relationships between parental thoughts/actions and neural activation in mothers and fathers in the neonatal period with infant outcomes at the toddler stage. At the first month postpartum, mothers (n = 21) and fathers (n = 19) underwent a neuroimaging session during which they listened to their own and unfamiliar baby’s cry. Parenting-related thoughts/behaviors were assessed by interview twice at the first month and 3–4 months postpartum and infants’ socioemotional outcomes were reported by mothers and fathers at 18–24 months postpartum. In mothers, higher levels of anxious thoughts/actions about parenting at the first month postpartum, but not at 3–4 months postpartum, were associated with infant’s low socioemotional competencies at 18–24 months. Anxious thoughts/actions were also associated with heightened responses in the motor cortex and reduced responses in the substantia nigra to own infant cry sounds. On the other hand, in fathers, higher levels of positive perception of being a parent at the first month postpartum, but not at 3–4 months postpartum, were associated with higher infant socioemotional competencies at 18–24 months. Positive thoughts were associated with heightened responses in the auditory cortex and caudate to own infant cry sounds. The current study provides evidence that parental thoughts are related to concurrent neural responses to their infants at the first month postpartum as well as their infant’s future socioemotional outcome at 18–24 months. Parent differences suggest that anxious thoughts in mothers and positive thoughts in fathers may be the targets for parenting-focused interventions very early postpartum. PMID:26635679

Two-year post-discharge costs of care among patients treated with transcatheter or surgical aortic valve replacement in Germany.

PubMed

Kaier, Klaus; von Kampen, Frederike; Baumbach, Hardy; von Zur Mühlen, Constantin; Hehn, Philip; Vach, Werner; Zehender, Manfred; Bode, Christoph; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-07-11

This study presents data on post-discharge costs of care among patients treated with transcatheter or surgical aortic valve replacement over a two year period. Based on a prospective clinical trial, post-discharge utilization of health services and status of assistance were collected for 151 elderly patients via 2250 monthly telephone interviews, valued using standardized unit costs and analysed using two-part regression models. At month 1 post-discharge, total costs of care are substantially elevated (monthly mean: €3506.7) and then remain relatively stable over the following 23 months (monthly mean: €622.3). As expected, the majority of these costs are related to in-hospital care (~98% in month 1 post-discharge and ~72% in months 2-24). Patients that died during follow-up were associated with substantially higher cost estimates of in-hospital care than those surviving the two-year study period, while patients' age and other patient characteristics were of minor relevance. Estimated costs of outpatient care are lower at month 1 than during the rest of the study period, and not affected by the event of death during follow-up. The estimated costs of nursing care are, in contrast, much higher in year 2 than in year 1 and differ substantially by gender and type of procedure as well as by patients' age. Overall, these monthly cost estimates add up to €10,352 for the first and €7467.6 for the second year post-discharge. Substantial cost increases at month 1 post-discharge and in case of death during follow-up are the main findings of the study, which should be taken into account in future economic evaluations on the topic. Application of standardized unit costs in combination with monthly patient interviews allows for a far more precise estimate of the variability in post-discharge health service utilization in this group of patients than the ones given in previous studies. German Clinical Trial Register Nr. DRKS00000797 .

Research from the NASA Twins Study and Omics in Support of Mars Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundrot, C.; Shelhamer, M.; Scott, G.

2015-01-01

The NASA Twins Study, NASA's first foray into integrated omic studies in humans, illustrates how an integrated omics approach can be brought to bear on the challenges to human health and performance on a Mars mission. The NASA Twins Study involves US Astronaut Scott Kelly and his identical twin brother, Mark Kelly, a retired US Astronaut. No other opportunity to study a twin pair for a prolonged period with one subject in space and one on the ground is available for the foreseeable future. A team of 10 principal investigators are conducting the Twins Study, examining a very broad range of biological functions including the genome, epigenome, transcriptome, proteome, metabolome, gut microbiome, immunological response to vaccinations, indicators of atherosclerosis, physiological fluid shifts, and cognition. A novel aspect of the study is the integrated study of molecular, physiological, cognitive, and microbiological properties. Major sample and data collection from both subjects for this study began approximately six months before Scott Kelly's one year mission on the ISS, continue while Scott Kelly is in flight and will conclude approximately six months after his return to Earth. Mark Kelly will remain on Earth during this study, in a lifestyle unconstrained by this study, thereby providing a measure of normal variation in the properties being studied. An overview of initial results and the future plans will be described as well as the technological and ethical issues raised for spaceflight studies involving omics.

Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults.

PubMed

Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio

2010-01-01

Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

Designing a Specialist Post-Graduate Qualification and Continuing Professional Development Structure for the Health Librarian Workforce of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ritchie, Ann; Hallam, Gillian; Hamill, C.; Lewis, S.; Foti, M.; O'Connor, P.; Clark, C.

2010-01-01

Through a grant received from the Australian Library and Information Association (ALIA), Health Libraries Australia (HLA) is conducting a twelve-month research project with the goal of developing a system-wide approach to education for the future health librarianship workforce. The research has two main aims: to determine the future skills,…

SELF-RATED EXPECTATIONS OF SUICIDAL BEHAVIOR PREDICT FUTURE SUICIDE ATTEMPTS AMONG ADOLESCENT AND YOUNG ADULT PSYCHIATRIC EMERGENCY PATIENTS.

PubMed

Czyz, Ewa K; Horwitz, Adam G; King, Cheryl A

2016-06-01

This study's purpose was to examine the predictive validity and clinical utility of a brief measure assessing youths' own expectations of their future risk of suicidal behavior, administered in a psychiatric emergency (PE) department; and determine if youths' ratings improve upon a clinician-administered assessment of suicidal ideation severity. The outcome was suicide attempts up to 18 months later. In this medical record review study, 340 consecutively presenting youths (ages 13-24) seeking PE services over a 7-month period were included. Subsequent PE visits and suicide attempts were retrospectively tracked for up to 18 months. The 3-item scale assessing patients' perception of their own suicidal behavior risk and the clinician-administered ideation severity scale were used routinely at the study site. Cox regression results showed that youths' expectations of suicidal behavior were independently associated with increased risk of suicide attempts, even after adjusting for key covariates. Results were not moderated by sex, suicide attempt history, or age. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analyses indicated that self-assessed expectations of risk improved the predictive accuracy of the clinician-administered suicidal ideation measure. Youths' ratings indicative of lower confidence in maintaining safety uniquely predicted follow-up attempts and provided incremental validity over and above the clinician-administered assessment and improved its accuracy, suggesting their potential for augmenting suicide risk formulation. Assessing youths' own perceptions of suicide risk appears to be clinically useful, feasible to implement in PE settings, and, if replicated, promising for improving identification of youth at risk for suicidal behavior. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Early intervention for relapse in schizophrenia: impact of cognitive behavioural therapy on negative beliefs about psychosis and self-esteem.

PubMed

Gumley, Andrew; Karatzias, Athanasios; Power, Kevin; Reilly, James; McNay, Lisa; O'Grady, Margaret

2006-06-01

The study aimed to test two hypotheses. Firstly, that participants who relapsed during the 12-month follow-up period of our randomized controlled trial, would show increased negative beliefs about their illness and reduced self-esteem, in comparison to the non-relapsed participants. Secondly, that cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) for early signs of relapse would result in a reduction in negative beliefs about psychosis and an improvement in self-esteem at 12 months. A total of 144 participants with schizophrenia or a related disorder were randomized to receive either treatment as usual (TAU; N=72) or CBT (N=72). Participants completed the Personal Beliefs about Illness Questionnaire (PBIQ; Birchwood, Mason, MacMillan, & Healy, 1993) and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES; Rosenberg, 1965) at entry, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. At 12 months, relapsers showed greater increase in scores for PBIQ entrapment compared with non-relapsers. In addition, after controlling for baseline covariates (treatment group and PBIQ self versus illness), relapsers also showed greater increase in scores for PBIQ self versus illness at 12 months. Furthermore, in comparison to treatment as usual, participants who received CBT showed greater improvement in PBIQ loss and in Rosenberg self-esteem. The study provides evidence that relapse is associated with the development of negative appraisals of entrapment and self-blame (self vs. illness). In addition, this is the first study to show that CBT reduces negative appraisals of loss arising from psychosis and improvements in self-esteem. Implications for future research and treatment are discussed.

Evaluation on uncertainty sources in projecting hydrological changes over the Xijiang River basin in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Fei; Zhao, Chongxu; Jiang, Yong; Ren, Liliang; Shan, Hongcui; Zhang, Limin; Zhu, Yonghua; Chen, Tao; Jiang, Shanhu; Yang, Xiaoli; Shen, Hongren

2017-11-01

Projections of hydrological changes are associated with large uncertainties from different sources, which should be quantified for an effective implementation of water management policies adaptive to future climate change. In this study, a modeling chain framework to project future hydrological changes and the associated uncertainties in the Xijiang River basin, South China, was established. The framework consists of three emission scenarios (ESs), four climate models (CMs), four statistical downscaling (SD) methods, four hydrological modeling (HM) schemes, and four probability distributions (PDs) for extreme flow frequency analyses. Direct variance method was adopted to analyze the manner by which uncertainty sources such as ES, CM, SD, and HM affect the estimates of future evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow, and to quantify the uncertainties of PDs in future flood and drought risk assessment. Results show that ES is one of the least important uncertainty sources in most situations. CM, in general, is the dominant uncertainty source for the projections of monthly ET and monthly streamflow during most of the annual cycle, daily streamflow below the 99.6% quantile level, and extreme low flow. SD is the most predominant uncertainty source in the projections of extreme high flow, and has a considerable percentage of uncertainty contribution in monthly streamflow projections in July-September. The effects of SD in other cases are negligible. HM is a non-ignorable uncertainty source that has the potential to produce much larger uncertainties for the projections of low flow and ET in warm and wet seasons than for the projections of high flow. PD contributes a larger percentage of uncertainty in extreme flood projections than it does in extreme low flow estimates. Despite the large uncertainties in hydrological projections, this work found that future extreme low flow would undergo a considerable reduction, and a noticeable increase in drought risk in the Xijiang River basin would be expected. Thus, the necessity of employing effective water-saving techniques and adaptive water resources management strategies for drought disaster mitigation should be addressed.

Sequential imaging of asymptomatic carotid atheroma using ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Sadat, Umar; Howarth, Simon P S; Usman, Ammara; Tang, Tjun Y; Graves, Martin J; Gillard, Jonathan H

2013-11-01

Inflammation within atheromatous plaques is a known risk factor for plaque vulnerability. This can be detected in vivo on high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) using ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide (USPIO) contrast medium. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of performing sequential USPIO studies over a 1-year period. Ten patients with moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis underwent carotid MRI imaging both before and 36 hours after USPIO infusion at 0, 6, and 12 months. Images were manually segmented into quadrants, and the signal change per quadrant was calculated at these time points. A mixed repeated measures statistical model was used to determine signal change attributable to USPIO uptake over time. All patients remained asymptomatic during the study. The mixed model revealed no statistical difference in USPIO uptake between the 3 time points. Intraclass correlation coefficients revealed a good agreement of quadrant signal pre-USPIO infusion between 0 and 6 months (0.70) and 0 and 12 months (0.70). Good agreement of quadrant signal after USPIO infusion was shown between 0 and 6 months (0.68) and moderate agreement was shown between 0 and 12 months (0.33). USPIO-enhanced sequential MRI of atheromatous carotid plaques is clinically feasible. This may have important implications for future longitudinal studies involving pharmacologic intervention in large patient cohorts. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of effective contraception 6 months after emergency contraception with a copper intrauterine device or ulipristal acetate - a prospective observational cohort study.

PubMed

Envall, Niklas; Groes Kofoed, Nina; Kopp-Kallner, Helena

2016-08-01

Emergency contraception must be followed by the use of an effective method of contraception in order to reduce future risk of unintended pregnancies. Provision of long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) is highly effective in this regard. The aim of our study was to compare use of an effective method of contraception 6 months following insertion of a copper intrauterine device (Cu-IUD) or intake of ulipristal acetate (UPA) for emergency contraception (EC). Women (n = 79) presenting with need for EC at an outpatient midwifery clinic chose either Cu-IUD or UPA according to preference. Follow up was 3 and 6 months later through telephone interviews. Primary outcome was use of an effective contraceptive method at the 6-month follow up. Secondary outcomes included use of an effective contraceptive method at 3 months follow up and acceptability of Cu-IUD. A total of 30/36 (83.3%) women who opted for Cu-IUD for EC used an effective contraceptive method 6 months after their first visit compared with 18/31 (58.1%) women who opted for UPA (p = 0.03). In the Cu-IUD group 28/36 (77.8%) were still using Cu-IUD at 6 months and 31/36 (86%) stated that they would recommend the Cu-IUD to others as an EC method. Significantly more women who chose Cu-IUD for EC used an effective method for contraception at the 6-month follow up. The results of this study support increased use of Cu-IUDs for EC. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Brief Motivational and Parent Interventions For College Students: A Randomized Factorial Study

PubMed Central

Wood, Mark D.; Fairlie, Anne M.; Fernandez, Anne C.; Borsari, Brian; Capone, Christy; Laforge, Robert; Carmona-Barros, Rosa

2010-01-01

Objective Using a randomized factorial design, we examined the efficacy of a Brief Motivational Intervention (BMI) and Parent-based Intervention (PBI) as universal preventive interventions to reduce alcohol use among incoming college students. Method Participants (N = 1,014) were assessed prior to matriculation and at 10-months and 22-months post-baseline. Two-part latent growth modeling was used to simultaneously examine initiation and growth in heavy episodic drinking and alcohol-related consequences. Results This study retained 90.8% (n = 921) of randomized students at the 10 month follow-up and 84.0% (n = 852) at the 22-month follow-up. BMI participants were significantly less likely than non-BMI participants to initiate heavy episodic drinking and to begin experiencing alcohol-related consequences. Effect sizes were minimal at 10-months (Cohen’s h ranged from 0.02–0.07) and small at 22-months (h’s from 0.15–0.22). A significant BMI X PBI interaction revealed that students receiving both the BMI and PBI were significantly less likely to report the onset of consequences beyond the sum of the individual intervention effects (h = 0.08 at 10-month and 0.21 at 22-month). Hypothesized direct BMI effects for reductions in heavy episodic drinking and consequences were not observed. Significant mediated effects via changes in descriptive norms were present for both growth and initiation of heavy episodic drinking and consequences. Conclusions To our knowledge, the current study is the first to provide support for BMI as a universal preventive intervention for incoming college students. While hypothesized PBI main effects were not found, mediation analyses suggest future refinements could enhance PBI effectiveness. PMID:20515210

Nutritional quality of foods and beverages on child-care centre menus in Mexico

PubMed Central

Benjamin Neelon, Sara E.; Reyes-Morales, Hortensia; Haines, Jess; Gillman, Matthew W.; Taveras, Elsie M.

2013-01-01

Objective The purpose of the present study was to assess the nutritional quality of foods and beverages listed on menus serving children in government-sponsored child-care centres throughout Mexico. Design For this cross-sectional menu assessment, we compared (i) food groups and portion sizes of foods and beverages on the menus with MyPlate recommendations and (ii) macronutrients, sugar and fibre with Daily Reference Intake standards. Setting Menus reflected foods and beverages served to children attending one of 142 government-sponsored child-care centres throughout Mexico. Subjects There were fifty-four distinct menus for children aged 4–6 months, 7–9 months, 10–12 months, 13–23 months, 24–47 months and 48–72 months. Results Menus included a variety of foods meeting minimum MyPlate recommendations for each food category except whole grains for children aged 48–72 months. Menus listed excessive amounts of high-energy beverages, including full-fat milk, fruit juice and sugar-sweetened beverages for children of all ages. The mean daily energy content of menu items yielded an average of 2·76 MJ for infants, 4·77 MJ for children aged 13–23 months, 5·36 MJ for children aged 24–47 months and 5·87 MJ for children aged 48–72 months. Foods and beverages on menus provided sufficient grams of carbohydrate and fat, but excessive protein. Conclusions Menus provided a variety of foods but excessive energy. Whole grains were limited, and high-energy beverages were prevalent. Both may be appropriate targets for nutrition intervention. Future studies should move beyond menus and assess what children actually consume in child care. PMID:23036360

Nutritional quality of foods and beverages on child-care centre menus in Mexico.

PubMed

Benjamin Neelon, Sara E; Reyes-Morales, Hortensia; Haines, Jess; Gillman, Matthew W; Taveras, Elsie M

2013-11-01

The purpose of the present study was to assess the nutritional quality of foods and beverages listed on menus serving children in government-sponsored child-care centres throughout Mexico. For this cross-sectional menu assessment, we compared (i) food groups and portion sizes of foods and beverages on the menus with MyPlate recommendations and (ii) macronutrients, sugar and fibre with Daily Reference Intake standards. Menus reflected foods and beverages served to children attending one of 142 government-sponsored child-care centres throughout Mexico. There were fifty-four distinct menus for children aged 4–6 months, 7–9 months, 10–12 months, 13–23 months, 24–47 months and 48–72 months. Menus included a variety of foods meeting minimum MyPlate recommendations for each food category except whole grains for children aged 48–72 months. Menus listed excessive amounts of high-energy beverages, including full-fat milk, fruit juice and sugar-sweetened beverages for children of all ages. The mean daily energy content of menu items yielded an average of 2?76 MJ for infants, 4.77 MJ for children aged 13–23 months, 5.36 MJ for children aged 24–47 months and 5.87 MJ for children aged 48–72 months. Foods and beverages on menus provided sufficient grams of carbohydrate and fat, but excessive protein. Menus provided a variety of foods but excessive energy. Whole grains were limited, and high-energy beverages were prevalent. Both may be appropriate targets for nutrition intervention. Future studies should move beyond menus and assess what children actually consume in child care.

How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marty, Christoph; Schlögl, Sebastian; Bavay, Mathias; Lehning, Michael

2017-02-01

This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999-2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future time periods (2020-2049, 2045-2074, 2070-2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500-800 or 700-1000 m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and only 0-2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %).

The software product assurance metrics study: JPL's software systems quality and productivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bush, Marilyn W.

1989-01-01

The findings are reported of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)/Software Product Assurance (SPA) Metrics Study, conducted as part of a larger JPL effort to improve software quality and productivity. Until recently, no comprehensive data had been assembled on how JPL manages and develops software-intensive systems. The first objective was to collect data on software development from as many projects and for as many years as possible. Results from five projects are discussed. These results reflect 15 years of JPL software development, representing over 100 data points (systems and subsystems), over a third of a billion dollars, over four million lines of code and 28,000 person months. Analysis of this data provides a benchmark for gauging the effectiveness of past, present and future software development work. In addition, the study is meant to encourage projects to record existing metrics data and to gather future data. The SPA long term goal is to integrate the collection of historical data and ongoing project data with future project estimations.

Time series modelling to forecast prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies.

PubMed

Villani, Melanie; Earnest, Arul; Nanayakkara, Natalie; Smith, Karen; de Courten, Barbora; Zoungas, Sophia

2017-05-05

Acute diabetic emergencies are often managed by prehospital Emergency Medical Services (EMS). The projected growth in prevalence of diabetes is likely to result in rising demand for prehospital EMS that are already under pressure. The aims of this study were to model the temporal trends and provide forecasts of prehospital attendances for diabetic emergencies. A time series analysis on monthly cases of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia was conducted using data from the Ambulance Victoria (AV) electronic database between 2009 and 2015. Using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modelling process, different models were evaluated. The most parsimonious model with the highest accuracy was selected. Forty-one thousand four hundred fifty-four prehospital diabetic emergencies were attended over a seven-year period with an increase in the annual median monthly caseload between 2009 (484.5) and 2015 (549.5). Hypoglycemia (70%) and people with type 1 diabetes (48%) accounted for most attendances. The SARIMA (0,1,0,12) model provided the best fit, with a MAPE of 4.2% and predicts a monthly caseload of approximately 740 by the end of 2017. Prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies is increasing. SARIMA time series models are a valuable tool to allow forecasting of future caseload with high accuracy and predict increasing cases of prehospital diabetic emergencies into the future. The model generated by this study may be used by service providers to allow appropriate planning and resource allocation of EMS for diabetic emergencies.

An Adapted Post-Donation Motivational Interview Enhances Blood Donor Retention

PubMed Central

Sinclair, Kadian S.; Campbell, Tavis S.; Carey, Patricia M.; Langevin, Eric; Bowser, Brent; France, Christopher R.

2010-01-01

Background Blood donors may hold conflicting thoughts about future donation. While they may perceive the direct benefit to themselves and others, they often report compelling reasons not to give again. As a result the standard encouragements to return may not be sufficient to motivate some donors. The present study examined the effects of a post-donation adapted motivational interview on blood donor attitudes and repeat donation behavior. Study Design and Methods Donors (n=215) were randomly assigned to either an adapted motivational interview (AMI) or a no-interview control group. Approximately one month after their index donation, donors in the AMI group completed a brief telephone interview to clarify individual-specific motivations and values concerning blood donation and address potential barriers. They were then asked to complete questionnaires regarding donation attitudes, anxiety, self-efficacy and intention to donate. Donors in the control group were also contacted one month post-donation and asked to complete the same series of questionnaires. Results Donors in the AMI group reported greater intention to provide a future donation, F = 8.13, p < 0.05, more positive donation attitudes, F = 4.59, p < 0.05, and greater confidence in their ability to avoid adverse reactions, F = 10.26, p < 0.01. Further, AMI was associated with higher rates of attempted donation at 12 months (OR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.27–4.87). Conclusion Application of an adapted motivational interview may be an effective strategy to increase the donor pool by enhancing retention of existing donors. PMID:20456674

Comparison of the incidence of patient-reported post-operative dysphagia between ACDF with a traditional anterior plate and artificial cervical disc replacement.

PubMed

Yang, Yi; Ma, Litai; Liu, Hao; Liu, Yilian; Hong, Ying; Wang, Beiyu; Ding, Chen; Deng, Yuxiao; Song, Yueming; Liu, Limin

2016-09-01

Compared with anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF), cervical disc replacement (CDR) has provided satisfactory clinical results. The incidence of post-operative dysphagia between ACDF with a traditional anterior plate and CDR remains controversial. Considering the limited studies and knowledge in this area, a retrospective study focusing on post-operative dysphagia was conducted. The Bazaz grading system was used to assess the severity of dysphagia at post-operative intervals including 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months and 24 months respectively. The Chi-square test, Student t-test, Mann-Whitney U tests and Ordinal Logistic regression were used for data analysis when appropriate. Statistical significance was accepted at a probability value of <0.05. Two hundred and thirty-one patients in the CDR group and one hundred and fifty-eight patients in Plate group were included in this study. The total incidences of dysphagia in the CDR and plate group were 36.58% and 60.43% at one week, 29.27% and 38.85% at one month, 21.95% and 31.65% at three months, 6.83% and 17.99% at six months, 5.85% and 14.39% at 12 months, and 4.39% and 10.07% at the final follow-up respectively (All P<0.05, Mann-Whitney U test). Ordinal Logistic regression analysis showed that female patients, two-level surgery, C4/5 surgery, and anterior cervical plating were significant risk factors for post-operative dysphagia (all P<0.05). Comparing ACDF with a plate, CDR with a Prestige LP can significantly reduce both transient and persistent post-operative dysphagia. Female patients, two-level surgery, C4/5 surgery and anterior cervical plating were associated with a higher incidence of dysphagia. Future prospective, randomized, controlled studies are needed to further validate these findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variability of Stimulant Levels in Nine Sports Supplements Over a 9-Month Period.

PubMed

Attipoe, Selasi; Cohen, Pieter A; Eichner, Amy; Deuster, Patricia A

2016-10-01

Many studies have found that some dietary supplement product labels do not accurately reflect the actual ingredients. However, studies have not been performed to determine if ingredients in the same dietary supplement product vary over time. The objective of this study was to assess the consistency of stimulant ingredients in popular sports supplements sold in the United States over a 9-month period. Three samples of nine popular sports supplements were purchased over the 9-month period. The 27 samples were analyzed for caffeine and several other stimulants (including adulterants). The identity and quantity of stimulants were compared with stimulants listed on the label and stimulants found at earlier time points to determine the variability in individual products over the 9-month period. The primary outcome measure was the variability of stimulant amounts in the products examined. Many supplements did not contain the same number and quantity of stimulants at all time points over the 9-month period. Caffeine content varied widely in five of the six caffeinated supplements compared with the initial measurement (-7% to +266%). In addition, the stimulants-synephrine, octopamine, cathine, ephedrine, pseudoephedrine, strychnine, and methylephedrine-occurred in variable amounts in eight of the nine products. The significance of these findings is uncertain: the sample size was insufficient to support statistical analysis. In our sample of nine popular sports supplements, the presence and quantity of stimulants varied over a 9-month period. However, future studies are warranted to determine if the variability found is significant and generalizable to other supplements.

Empowering self-care ability - a follow-up study of clinical-based perimenopausal women personal health counselling.

PubMed

An, Chi; Yu, Yen-Yen; Chou, Bee-Chin; Szu, Li-Yun; Tsao, Lee-Ing

2016-10-01

This study aimed to evaluate the longitudinal effects of a personal counselling intervention for perimenopausal women in northern Taiwan. Women face a variety of physical changes during menopause. Counselling intervention could enrich individual health education for menopausal women. Quasi-experimental design. The study used one-on-one personal health counselling with a 'menopausal health passport' for perimenopausal women. The Perceived Perimenopausal Disturbances scale, the Practice of Health Behavior scale and the Perceived Uncertainty scale were used to measure the intervention effects. Results were estimated by a Generalized Estimating Equation procedure at one and a half months, three months and six months post intervention. In addition, data regarding perceived health changes were collected qualitatively through interviews in the experimental group at the sixth month. A total of 34 women were included in the experimental group, while 33 were in the control group. Interaction effect results showed that personal health counselling significantly increased the practice of health behaviours at one and a half months and extended to three months post intervention. Additionally, content categories, including 'relief of symptoms', 'establishment of health behaviors', 'interaction with others' and 'consideration from others' were identified in quantitative analysis. The results suggest that perimenopausal personal health counselling can effectively improve healthy behaviours. This study can also serve as a future reference for effective perimenopausal counselling. It is crucial to set up personal health counselling for perimenopausal women in clinics and develop information technology systems to support menopausal women in the technological era. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Civil Service Workforce Market Supply and the Effect on Cost Estimating Relationship (CERS) that May Effect the Productivity Factors for Future NASA Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterk, Steve; Chesley, Stephan

2008-01-01

The upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomers will leave a workforce age gap between the younger generation (the future NASA decision makers) and the gray beards. This paper will reflect on the average age of the workforce across NASA Centers, the Aerospace Industry and other Government Agencies, like DoD. This paper will dig into Productivity and Realization Factors and how they get applied to bi-monthly (payroll) data for true full-time equivalent (FTE) calculations that could be used at each of the NASA Centers and other business systems that are on the forefront in being implemented. This paper offers some comparative costs analysis/solutions, from simple FTE cost-estimating relationships (CERs) versus CERs for monthly time-phasing activities for small research projects that start and get completed within a government fiscal year. This paper will present the results of a parametric study investigating the cost-effectiveness of alternative performance-based CERs and how they get applied into the Center's forward pricing rate proposals (FPRP). True CERs based on the relationship of a younger aged workforce will have some effects on labor rates used in both commercial cost models and other internal home-grown cost models which may impact the productivity factors for future NASA missions.

Postdeployment behavioral health screening: face-to-face versus virtual behavioral health interviews.

PubMed

Sipos, Maurice L; Foran, Heather M; Crane, Maria L; Wood, Michael D; Wright, Kathleen M

2012-05-01

Virtual behavioral health (VBH) services are used frequently to address the high demand for behavioral health (BH) services in the military. Few studies have investigated the relationship between the use of VBH services and BH outcomes or preferences for the use of VBH technologies. In this article, we evaluated BH interviews conducted via video teleconferencing (VTC) or face-to-face in terms of BH symptoms, satisfaction rates, stigma, barriers to care, and preferences for future use of BH care. Soldiers (n = 307) from the headquarters element of an operational unit were surveyed 4 months following a 12-month deployment to Iraq. There were no significant differences in satisfaction rates based on interview modality, but significantly more soldiers preferred face-to-face interviews over VTC interviews in the future. Soldiers who preferred face-to-face interviews also reported higher levels of anxiety and depression symptoms than those who preferred VTC interviews. No significant age differences were found in terms of interview modality satisfaction or preference. Soldiers with greater deployment experience were more likely to report that they would not like using VTC if seeking BH care in the future than soldiers with less deployment experience. These findings highlight the importance of promoting choice in type of BH interview modality.

Monthly modulation in dark matter direct-detection experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Britto, Vivian; Meyers, Joel, E-mail: vivian.britto@mail.utoronto.ca, E-mail: jmeyers@cita.utoronto.ca

2015-11-01

The signals in dark matter direct-detection experiments should exhibit modulation signatures due to the Earth's motion with respect to the Galactic dark matter halo. The annual and daily modulations, due to the Earth's revolution about the Sun and rotation about its own axis, have been explored previously. Monthly modulation is another such feature present in direct detection signals, and provides a nearly model-independent method of distinguishing dark matter signal events from background. We study here monthly modulations in detail for both WIMP and WISP dark matter searches, examining both the effect of the motion of the Earth about the Earth-Moonmore » barycenter and the gravitational focusing due to the Moon. For WIMP searches, we calculate the monthly modulation of the count rate and show the effects are too small to be observed in the foreseeable future. For WISP dark matter experiments, we show that the photons generated by WISP to photon conversion have frequencies which undergo a monthly modulating shift which is detectable with current technology and which cannot in general be neglected in high resolution WISP searches.« less

Climate variations and salmonellosis in northwest Russia: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Grjibovski, A M; Bushueva, V; Boltenkov, V P; Buzinov, R V; Degteva, G N; Yurasova, E D; Nurse, J

2013-02-01

Associations between monthly counts of all laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis in Arkhangelsk, northern Russia, from 1992 to 2008 and climatic variables with lags 0-2 were studied by three different models. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature with a lag of 1 month across the whole range of temperatures. An increase of 1 °C was associated with a 2·04% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·25-3·84], 1·84% (95% CI 0·06-3·63) and 2·32% (95% CI 0·38-4·27) increase in different models. Only one of the three models suggested an increase in the number of cases, by 0·24% (95% CI 0·02-0·46) with an increase in precipitation by 1 mm in the same month. Higher temperatures were associated with higher monthly counts of salmonellosis while the association with precipitation was less certain. The results may have implications for the future patterns of enteric infections in northern areas related to climate change.

Using Feedback to Promote Physical Activity: The Role of the Feedback Sign

PubMed Central

Kramer, Jan-Niklas

2017-01-01

Background Providing feedback is a technique to promote health behavior that is emphasized by behavior change theories. However, these theories make contradicting predictions regarding the effect of the feedback sign—that is, whether the feedback signals success or failure. Thus, it is unclear whether positive or negative feedback leads to more favorable behavior change in a health behavior intervention. Objective The aim of this study was to examine the effect of the feedback sign in a health behavior change intervention. Methods Data from participants (N=1623) of a 6-month physical activity intervention was used. Participants received a feedback email at the beginning of each month. Feedback was either positive or negative depending on the participants’ physical activity in the previous month. In an exploratory analysis, change in monthly step count averages was used to evaluate the feedback effect. Results The feedback sign did not predict the change in monthly step count averages over the course of the intervention (b=−84.28, P=.28). Descriptive differences between positive and negative feedback can be explained by regression to the mean. Conclusions The feedback sign might not influence the effect of monthly feedback emails sent out to participants of a large-scale physical activity intervention. However, randomized studies are needed to further support this conclusion. Limitations as well as opportunities for future research are discussed. PMID:28576757

Learning Lasts a Lifetime. Report of the Colorado Business Commission on Adult Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colorado Office of the Governor, Denver.

A commission of business leaders appointed by the governor of Colorado studied adult basic education (ABE) in the state in order to determine its value to the citizens of the state and to the state's future. Throughout a 6-month period, the commission discussed issues pertaining to the field with private providers, adult learners, and government…

An Epidemiologic Study of Genetic Variation in Hormonal Pathways in Relation to the Effect of Hormone Replacement Therapy on Breast Cancer Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-01

active learning techniques in Introduction to Epidemiology Ongoing5 W81XWH-06-1-0312 Reding, Kerryn 7 TASK STATUS of FUTURE TASKS Task 3...Apply for and obtain IRB renewal Ongoing task Task 4: Training-related Work (Months 13-36) a. Present research findings on active learning at

Seasonal variation in hospital encounters with hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia.

PubMed

Clemens, K K; Shariff, S; Richard, L; Booth, G; Gilliland, J; Garg, A X

2017-07-01

To assess whether rates of hospital encounters with hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia display seasonal variation. Time series analyses of the monthly rates of hospital encounters (emergency room visits or inpatient admissions) with hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia from 2003 to 2012 using linked healthcare databases in Ontario, Canada. Over the study period, there were 129 887 hypoglycaemia and 79 773 hyperglycaemia encounters. The characteristics of people at the time of their encounters were similar across the seasons in 2008 (median age 68 years for hypoglycaemia encounters and 53 years for hyperglycaemia encounters; 50% female; 90% with diabetes). We observed moderate seasonality in both types of encounters (R 2 autoregression coefficient 0.58 for hypoglycaemia; 0.59 for hyperglycaemia). The rate of hypoglycaemia encounters appeared to peak between April and June, when on average, there was an additional 49 encounters per month (0.36 encounters per 100 000 persons per month) compared with the other calendar months (5% increase). The rate of hyperglycaemia encounters appeared to peak in January, when on average, there was an additional 69 encounters per month (0.50 encounters per 100 000 persons per month) compared with the other calendar months (11% increase). In our region, there is seasonal variation in the rate of hospital encounters with hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia. Our findings may help to highlight periods of vulnerability for people, may inform future epidemiological studies and may aid in the appropriate planning of healthcare resources. © 2017 Diabetes UK.

Silent Brain Infarction and Risk of Future Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Gupta, Ajay; Giambrone, Ashley E.; Gialdini, Gino; Finn, Caitlin; Delgado, Diana; Gutierrez, Jose; Wright, Clinton; Beiser, Alexa S.; Seshadri, Sudha; Pandya, Ankur; Kamel, Hooman

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Silent brain infarction (SBI) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been proposed as a subclinical risk marker for future symptomatic stroke. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the association between MRI-defined SBI and future stroke risk. Methods We searched the medical literature to identify cohort studies involving adults with MRI detection of SBI who were subsequently followed for incident clinically-defined stroke. Study data and quality assessment were recorded in duplicate with disagreements in data extraction resolved by a third reader. Strength association between MRI detected SBI and future symptomatic stroke measured by a hazard ratio (HR). Results The meta-analysis included 13 studies (14,764 subjects) with a mean follow-up ranging from 25.7 to 174 months. SBI predicted the occurrence of stroke with a random effects crude relative risk of 2.94 (95% CI 2.24–3.86, P<0.001; Q=39.65, P<0.001). In the eight studies of 10,427 subjects providing HR adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, SBI was an independent predictor of incident stroke (HR 2.08 [95% CI 1.69–2.56, P<0.001]; Q=8.99, P=0.25). In a subgroup analysis pooling 9,483 stroke-free individuals from large population-based studies, SBI was present in ~18% of participants and remained a strong predictor of future stroke (HR 2.06 [95% CI 1.64–2.59], p<0.01). Conclusions SBI is present in approximately one in five stroke-free older adults and is associated with a 2-fold increased risk of future stroke. Future studies of in-depth stroke risk evaluations and intensive prevention measures are warranted in patients with clinically unrecognized radiologically evident brain infarctions. PMID:26888534

78 FR 43123 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 6-Month Extension of Final Determinations on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-19

...; (4) Projections for future residential development and human population growth within Gunnison sage.... Specifically, commenters suggested that we may have overestimated the amount of future growth in human... population trends. Specifically, some scientists [[Page 43124

Looking into the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDowell, Stirling

1984-01-01

After four months of public hearings, the MacDonald Commission established to look into Canada's future is now preparing its interim report. The 220,000-member Canadian Teachers' Federation has submitted a four-point proposal to the commission calling for a reaffirmation of the overriding importance of education. (JBM)

Pilot clinic study of Project EX for smoking cessation with Spanish adolescents.

PubMed

Espada, José P; Gonzálvez, María T; Orgilés, Mireia; Guillén-Riquelme, Alejandro; Soto, Daniel; Sussman, Steve

2015-06-01

Despite efforts to prevent smoking, the prevalence of smoking in Spanish adolescents remains high. So far, there are no evidence-based smoking cessation programs for adolescents in Spain. This study describes the evaluation of Project EX, an eight-session school-based clinic smoking cessation program, with Spanish cigarette smokers 13-19 years of age, from 9 schools (four program condition schools and five control condition schools). A group-randomized controlled trial was used. There were 211 smokers at baseline (112 program group, and 99 control group). Evaluation involved an immediate pretest and posttest survey (administered five-weeks later) and six-month follow-up (after the immediate posttest). At immediate posttest, Project EX significantly reduced future nicotine dependence scores (mFTQ; p<.001), and increased intention to quit smoking (p<.001), and led to a higher previous day (prior to assessment) quit rate (p<.03). At the six-month follow-up, the percentage of quitters in the program group was 14.28%, whereas no smokers quit smoking in the control group (p<.04), and Project EX had a significant influence on future smoking expectation (p=.006) and overall level of 30-day smoking. Results for the Project EX school-based clinic are promising for adolescent smokers in Spain, although difficulties in recruitment and high attrition are of concern. Findings and limitations are discussed and suggestions for future research are suggested. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does children's screen time predict requests for advertised products? Cross-sectional and prospective analyses.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Lisa J; Wang, Yun; Robinson, Thomas N

2006-04-01

To examine children's screen media exposure and requests for advertised toys and food/drinks. Prospective cohort study. Twelve elementary schools in northern California. Eight hundred twenty-seven third grade children participated at baseline; 386 students in 6 schools were followed up for 20 months. None. Child self-reported requests for advertised toys and foods/drinks. At baseline, children's screen media time was significantly associated with concurrent requests for advertised toys (Spearman r = 0.15 [TV viewing] and r = 0.20 [total screen time]; both P<.001) and foods/drinks (Spearman r = 0.16 [TV viewing] and r = 0.18 [total screen time]; both P<.001). In prospective analysis, children's screen media time at baseline was significantly associated with their mean number of toy requests 7 to 20 months later (Spearman r = 0.21 [TV viewing] and r = 0.24 [total screen time]; both P<.001) and foods/drinks requests (Spearman r = 0.14 [TV viewing] and r = 0.16 [total screen time]; both P<.01). After adjusting for baseline requests and sociodemographic variables, the relationship between screen media exposure and future requests for advertised foods/drinks remained significant for total TV viewing and total screen media exposure. The relationship with future requests for toys remained significant for total screen media exposure. Screen media exposure is a prospective risk factor for children's requests for advertised products. Future experimental studies on children's health- and consumer-related outcomes are warranted.

Human adaptation to isolated and confined environments: Preliminary findings of a seven month Antarctic winter-over human factors study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Gary W.; Stokols, Daniel; Carrere, Sybil

1988-01-01

This field study was conducted during the last decade of an austral winter-over at Palmer Station in the Antarctic. The purpose of the study was to understand temporal patterns in physiological arousal and psychological mood over the course of the mission. The investigators were principally interested in how people adapted over time to chronic and acute stressors, and how people use and modify their built environment. Physiological and psychological data were collected several times a week, and information on behavior and the use of physical facilities was collected monthly. Physiological and psychological data were compared with social changes in the setting toward the development of a sequential model of human-environment transactional relationships. Based on the study results, guidelines for design of future isolated and confined environments (ICEs) included: plan space for items which make people feel at home, provide materials to allow people to personalize their environment, allow for flexible environments, provide areas for visual and auditory privacy, equip areas for socializing and remove them from private areas, and provide facilities for exercise and for projects involving physical activity. The study offers guidelines about patterns of adaption that could be expected in an ICE, discusses how these settings can be programmed to facilitate successful adjustment, and provides information about how to design future ICE habitats to maximize a healthy living environment.

On the Origins of Disorganized Attachment and Internal Working Models: Paper II. An Empirical Microanalysis of 4-Month Mother-Infant Interaction

PubMed Central

Beebe, Beatrice; Lachmann, Frank; Markese, Sara; Buck, Karen A.; Bahrick, Lorraine E.; Chen, Henian; Cohen, Patricia; Andrews, Howard; Feldstein, Stanley; Jaffe, Joseph

2012-01-01

A microanalysis of 4-month mother-infant face-to-face communication predicted 12-month infant disorganized (vs. secure) attachment outcomes in an urban community sample. We documented a dyadic systems view of the roles of both partners, the roles of both self- and interactive contingency, and the importance of attention, orientation and touch, and as well as facial and vocal affect, in the co-construction of attachment disorganization. The analysis of different communication modalities identified striking intrapersonal and interpersonal intermodal discordance or conflict, in the context of intensely distressed infants, as the central feature of future disorganized dyads at 4 months. Lowered maternal contingent coordination, and failures of maternal affective correspondence, constituted maternal emotional withdrawal from distressed infants. This maternal withdrawal compromises infant interactive agency and emotional coherence. We characterize of the nature of emerging internal working models of future disorganized infants as follows: Future disorganized infants represent states of not being sensed and known by their mothers, particularly in moments of distress; they represent confusion about both their own and their mothers’ basic emotional organization, and about their mothers’ response to their distress. This internal working model sets a trajectory in development which may disturb the fundamental integration of the person. The remarkable specificity of our findings has the potential to lead to more finely-focused clinical interventions. PMID:23066334

A study of the influence of soil moisture on future precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fennessy, M. J.; Sud, Y. C.

1983-01-01

Forty years of precipitation and surface temperature data observed over 261 Local Climatic Data (LCD) stations in the Continental United States was utilized in a ground hydrology model to yield soil moisture time series at each station. A month-by-month soil moisture dataset was constructed for each year. The monthly precipitation was correlated with antecedent monthly precipitation, soil moisture and vapotranspiration separately. The maximum positive correlation is found to be in the drought prone western Great Plains region during the latter part of summer. There is also some negative correlation in coastal regions. The correlations between soil moisture and precipitation particularly in the latter part of summer, suggest that large scale droughts over extended periods may be partially maintained by the feedback influence of soil moisture on rainfall. In many other regions the lack of positive correlation shows that there is no simple answer such as higher land-surface evapotranspiration leads to more precipitation, and points out the complexity of the influence of soil moisture on the ensuring precipitation.

Adherence in the CAPRISA 004 Tenofovir Gel Microbicide Trial

PubMed Central

Mansoor, Leila E

2014-01-01

High adherence is key to microbicide effectiveness. Here we provide a description of adherence interventions and the adherence rates achieved in the CAPRISA 004 Tenofovir Gel Trial. Adherence support for the before-and-after dosing strategy (BAT 24) was provided at enrolment and at each monthly study visit. This initially comprised individual counselling and was replaced midway by a structured theory-based adherence support program (ASP) based on motivational interviewing. The 889 women were followed for an average of 18 months and attended a total of 17031 monthly visits. On average women reported 5 sex acts and returned 5.9 empty applicators per month. The adherence rate based on applicator count in relation to all reported sex acts was 72.2% compared to the 82.0% self-reported adherence during the last sex act. Adherence support activities, which achieve levels of adherence similar to or better than those achieved by the CAPRISA 004 ASP, will be critical to the success of future microbicide trials. PMID:24643315

Is seeing believing? Expectant parents’ outlooks on coparenting and later coparenting solidarity

PubMed Central

McHale, James P.; Rotman, Tamir

2007-01-01

This study examined short- and longer-term sequelae of parents’ prenatal expectations of their future family process, and traced subsequent stability in coparenting solidarity from infancy through the toddler years. 110 couples expecting a first child participated in prenatal assessments of coparenting expectations and differences, and in 3 month post-partum evaluations. 45 couples completed subsequent assessments at 12 and 30 months. At each time point multi-method evaluations of coparental adjustment were obtained. Men’s and women’s expectancies during the pregnancy and the degree of difference between their self-reported beliefs about parenting predicted post-baby coparental adjustment, with latent class analyses suggesting aftereffects of prenatal expectancies up through 30 months for some couples. Coparental solidarity was also stable from 3 to 12 and from 12 to 30 months. Data indicate that the lens parents bring to bear on their emerging family system is not immaterial, and that early-emerging coparenting dynamics portend longer term coparenting adjustment. PMID:17292781

Future Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Area and its Implications for Marine Navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.; Mioduszewski, J.; Holland, M. M.; Wang, M.; Landrum, L.

2016-12-01

As both a symbol and driver of ongoing climate change, the diminishing Arctic sea ice pack has been widely studied in a variety of contexts. Most research, however, has focused on time-mean changes in sea ice, rather than on short-term variations that also have important physical and societal consequences. In this study we test the hypothesis that interannual Arctic sea ice variability will increase in the future by utilizing a set of 40 independent simulations from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble for the 1920-2100 period. The model projects that ice variability will indeed grow substantially in all months but with a strong seasonal dependence in magnitude and timing. The variability increases most during late autumn (November-December) and least during spring. This increase proceeds in a time-transgressive manner over the course of the year, peaking soonest (2020s) in late-summer months and latest (2090s) during late spring. The variability in every month is inversely correlated with the average melt rate, resulting in an eventual decline in both terms as the ice pack becomes seasonal by late century. These projected changes in sea ice variations will likely have significant consequences for marine navigation, which we assess with the empirical Ice Numeral (IN) metric. A function of ice concentration and thickness, the IN quantifies the difficulty in traversing a transect of sea ice-covered ocean as a function of vessel strength. Our results show that although increasingly open Arctic seas will mean generally more favorable conditions for navigation, the concurrent rise in the variability of ice cover poses a competing risk. In particular, future intervals featuring the most rapid declines in ice area that coincide with the highest interannual ice variations will offer more inviting shipping opportunities tempered by less predictable navigational conditions.

Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on Body Mass Index, Weight, and Height of Infants and Toddlers: An Infant Survey.

PubMed

Yokomichi, Hiroshi; Matsubara, Hiroko; Ishikuro, Mami; Kikuya, Masahiro; Isojima, Tsuyoshi; Yokoya, Susumu; Kato, Noriko; Tanaka, Toshiaki; Chida, Shoichi; Ono, Atsushi; Hosoya, Mitsuaki; Tanaka, Soichiro; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Kure, Shigeo; Yamagata, Zentaro

2018-05-05

The body mass index (BMI) of preschool children from 4 years of age through primary school has increased since the Great East Japan Earthquake, but that of children aged under 3 years has not been studied. This study evaluated how the anthropometrics of younger children changed following the earthquake. Height and weight data of children living in northeast Japan were collected from 3-, 6-, 18-, and 42-month child health examinations. We compared the changes in BMI, weight, and height among infants affected by the earthquake between their 3- and 6-month health examinations, toddlers affected at 21-30 months of age (affected groups), and children who experienced the earthquake after their 42-month child health examination (unaffected group). A multilevel model was used to calculate the BMI at corresponding ages and to adjust for the actual age at the 3-month health examination, health examination interval, and gestational age. We recruited 8,479 boys and 8,218 girls living in Fukushima, Miyagi, and Iwate Prefectures. In the infants affected between their 3- and 6-month health examinations in Fukushima, the change in BMI at 42 months of age was greater than among the unaffected children. In the toddlers affected at 21-30 months of age in Fukushima, the change in BMI was greater, but changes in weight and height were less. Affected infants and toddlers in Fukushima suggested some growth disturbances and early adiposity rebound, which can cause obesity. The future growth of children affected by disasters should be followed carefully.

The Experiences of Young Adults With Hodgkin Lymphoma Transitioning to Survivorship: A Grounded Theory Study.

PubMed

Matheson, Lauren; Boulton, Mary; Lavender, Verna; Collins, Graham; Mitchell-Floyd, Tracy; Watson, Eila

2016-09-01

To explore the experiences of young adults with Hodgkin lymphoma during the first year following the end of initial treatment. 
. A qualitative grounded theory study.
. Interviews with patients recruited from three cancer centers in England.
. 10 Hodgkin lymphoma survivors (four men and six women aged 21-39 years) recruited as part of a larger study of 28 young adult cancer survivors.
. Semistructured interviews were conducted about two months after treatment completion, and follow-up interviews were conducted seven months later. The authors' grounded theory of positive psychosocial adjustment to cancer provided the conceptual framework.
. Positive reframing, informal peer support, acceptance, and normalization helped young adults dismantle the threats of Hodgkin lymphoma during the course of treatment. However, they described losing a sense of security following treatment completion. Greater age-specific information to enable better preparation for the future was desired regarding body image, fertility, sexual relationships, work, and socializing.
. Informal support mechanisms, like peer support and patient navigator interventions, may be useful ways to further support young adults after treatment completion.
. Positive psychosocial adjustment to cancer survivorship in young adults is facilitated by having informal peer support; being able to positively reframe, accept, and normalize their experience; and being prepared for the future.

Postdischarge Behavioral Health Treatment and 6-Month Reattempt Rate for Veterans Hospitalized for Suicide Attempt.

PubMed

Bernet, Alice C

2015-01-01

The highest risk for suicide occurs immediately after psychiatric discharge. The U.S. Department of Veteran's Affairs' (VA) suicide prevention program emphasizes suicide surveillance and frequent contact after suicide attempt. To describe the 6-month reattempt rate and appointment characteristics for veterans after VA hospitalization for suicide attempt. This retrospective observational study identified veterans hospitalized for suicide attempt (N = 504). Comparisons of patient characteristics and treatment delivery were conducted between veteran groups. The sample (N = 504) was predominantly White (82%) and male (91%), with a median age of 50 years. The 6-month reattempt rate was 6%. Timing of first appointment was earlier in the reattempt group (n = 20) versus the no-reattempt group (n = 467). Appointment intensity, especially telephone appointments, was greater in the reattempt group. The effect of postdischarge treatment on preventing suicide cannot be determined by evaluating only treatment timing and intensity. Future studies should measure the treatment quality and clinical severity. © The Author(s) 2015.

Food insecurity and budgeting among Liberians in the US: how are they related to socio-demographic and pre-resettlement characteristics.

PubMed

Nunnery, D L; Haldeman, L A; Morrison, S D; Dharod, J M

2015-04-01

Objectives of this study: (1) Examine food insecurity (FI) prevalence and its relationship with sociodemographic and pre-resettlement characteristics; (2) Investigate differences in amount of money spent on food/month by food security status and socio-demographic characteristics. A pilot study with semi-structured in-home interviews was conducted with Liberian caregivers (n = 33). FI was indicated in 61% of households. FI was higher among women >40, had ≤ high school education and those making ≤$1,000/month. Women arriving in US >15 years of age were more likely to be food insecure. Participants spent an average $109/month on groceries/member. Food insecure women, and those without a car spent more money on food (P < .10). Liberian women in this sample experience high levels of FI upon resettlement. Besides poor economic conditions, pre-resettlement characteristics were associated with food security status. These findings call for future research to understand how preresettlement conditions affect food choices, budgeting and thereby food security status.

Language Profile in Congenital Hypothyroid Children Receiving Replacement Therapy.

PubMed

Soliman, Hend; Abdel Hady, Aisha Fawzy; Abdel Hamid, Asmaa; Mahmoud, Heba

2016-01-01

The aim of this work was to evaluate receptive and expressive language skills in children with congenital hypothyroidism receiving early hormonal replacement treatment before the age of 3 months and to identify any subtle areas of weaknesses in their language development to check the necessity for future language intervention. The study was conducted on 30 hypothyroid children receiving hormonal replacement. They were subdivided into group I (5-8 years 11 months; 12 cases) and group II (9-12 years 11 months; 18 cases). All patients were subjected to a protocol of assessment applied in the Diabetes, Endocrine and Metabolism Pediatric Unit (DEMPU) and evaluation of language skills by the REAL scale. The younger group reached average Arabic language scores, while the older group showed moderate language delay. Early replacement therapy supports language development in young children. However, longitudinal and follow-up studies are required to identify difficulties presenting at older ages that may affect children in the academic settings. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Examining antecedents of infant attachment security with mothers and fathers: An ecological systems perspective.

PubMed

Lickenbrock, Diane M; Braungart-Rieker, Julia M

2015-05-01

Taking an ecological systems perspective, early parent-child relationships can be affected by interactions between systems where some are more proximally linked to the child than others. Socioeconomic status, a distal factor, is associated with social functioning during childhood, but research on its association with functioning during infancy, particularly attachment, is scant and inconsistent. Moreover, it is not clear how distal factors affect infant functioning. Other systems such as marital adjustment and parenting may moderate or mediate relations between distal factors and infant attachment. The current longitudinal study (n=135) examined the role of various systems - parental resources, marital functioning, parental sensitivity and involvement - in early infancy (3-, 5-, 7-months) on infant-mother (12-months) and infant-father (14-months) attachment security. Findings supported moderating processes but in different ways for infant-mother versus infant-father dyads. Implications for future studies and interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Histological Development of Male Reproductive Organs in Microminipigs.

PubMed

Kangawa, Akihisa; Otake, Masayoshi; Enya, Satoko; Yoshida, Toshinori; Shibata, Masatoshi

2016-12-01

Microminipigs are becoming increasingly attractive alternatives for various experimental applications, such as general toxicology studies, owing to their manageable size. However, there are limited studies on the male reproductive organs of microminipigs, particularly on the histological aspects of sexual maturity. To clarify the development of male reproductive organs, 35 male microminipigs, aged 0 to 12 months, were used in this study. Histological and histomorphological evaluation was performed based on spermatogenic development, measurement of tubular structure in testes and epididymides, and histological progress of accessory glands. In addition, spontaneous testicular changes were quantitatively assessed. Histologically, male microminipigs sexually matured around 4.5 months of age, when spermatogenesis in testes and structural development in genital organs were completed. Spontaneous testicular changes occurred in all the animals investigated. Multinucleated giant cell was most commonly observed, followed by hypospermatogenesis and tubular atrophy/hypoplasia. However, the number of affected tubules was less than 1% in testes after 4.5 months of age, suggesting that the influence of these changes on evaluation of toxicity studies may be minimal. It is preferable to use sexually mature animals in toxicology studies; therefore, the information obtained by the present study will be helpful for future toxicity evaluations in microminipigs.

Hubble Space Telescope. Update: 18 months in orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

In April 1990, Space Shuttle Discovery launched the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). An 18 month in-orbit update of the operations and performance of the HST is presented. Numerous color photographs are shown of objects already observed, and mission plans are presented for future observations by the HST.

Socio-cognitive influences on the domain-specificity of prosocial behavior in the second year.

PubMed

Kärtner, Joscha; Schuhmacher, Nils; Collard, Jenny

2014-11-01

The main aim of this study was to explain the domain-specificity of early prosocial behavior in different domains (i.e., helping, comforting, and cooperation) by simultaneously assessing specific socio-cognitive factors (i.e., self-other-differentiation and joint attentional skills) that were hypothesized to be differentially related to the three domains of prosocial behavior. Based on a longitudinal study design, observational and parental report data were collected when toddlers (N=42) from German urban middle-class families were 15 and 18 months of age. At 15 months, regression analyses indicated differential relationships between socio-cognitive development and prosocial behavior (i.e., joint attentional skills were positively related with helping and, as hypothesized, both joint attentional skills and self-other differentiation were positively related with cooperation). Furthermore, self-other differentiation at 15 months predicted increases in coordination between 15 and 18 months. Finally, between 15 and 18 months, parental reports of socio-cognitive measures increased significantly while behavioral measures of both socio-cognitive concepts and prosocial behavior were stable across time. In sum, these results support the theoretical assumption of domain-specific socio-cognitive influences that constitute differential development of prosocial behavior. Implications of the results for theory and future studies are discussed from different perspectives with a focus on an interference interpretation calling for the integration of socialization approaches to the study of prosocial development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Online problem-solving therapy for executive dysfunction after child traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Kurowski, Brad G; Wade, Shari L; Kirkwood, Michael W; Brown, Tanya M; Stancin, Terry; Taylor, H Gerry

2013-07-01

Executive dysfunction after traumatic brain injury (TBI) in children is common and leads to significant problems in functioning across multiple settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of a web-based counselor-assisted problem solving (CAPS) intervention compared with an Internet resource comparison (IRC) for treatment of executive dysfunction within 12 months after complicated mild to severe TBI in adolescents. We hypothesized that CAPS would significantly improve parent ratings of executive dysfunction compared with an IRC. Participants included 132 adolescents aged 12 to 17 years who sustained a complicated mild to severe TBI within 1 to 6 months before study enrollment. Study design was a multisite, assessor-blinded, randomized controlled trial. Study sites included 3 tertiary pediatric hospitals and 2 tertiary general medical centers. The main outcome measure was primary caregiver Behavioral Rating Inventory of Executive Function Global Executive Composite at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Generalized linear models that controlled for baseline scores were used to compare the CAPS and IRC scores. In older teens, the CAPS group showed significant improvement in executive function behaviors at 6-month follow-up compared with the IRC group (F = 6.74, P = .01, Cohen's d = 0.63). Findings indicate that web-based CAPS improves primary caregiver-rated executive functioning within the first 12 months after TBI in older adolescents. Future research needs to define the optimal timing after injury for delivery of CAPS and characteristics of individuals and families who are most likely to benefit from CAPS.

The safety climate in primary care (SAP-C) study: study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility study.

PubMed

Lydon, Sinéad; Cupples, Margaret E; Hart, Nigel; Murphy, Andrew W; Faherty, Aileen; O'Connor, Paul

2016-01-01

Research on patient safety has focused largely on secondary care settings, and there is a dearth of knowledge relating to safety culture or climate, and safety climate improvement strategies, in the context of primary care. This is problematic given the high rates of usage of primary care services and the myriad of opportunities for clinical errors daily. The current research programme aimed to assess the effectiveness of an intervention derived from the Scottish Patient Safety Programme in Primary Care. The intervention consists of safety climate measurement and feedback and patient chart audit using the trigger review method. The purpose of this paper is to describe the background to this research and to present the methodology of this feasibility study in preparation for a future definitive RCT. The SAP-C study is a feasibility study employing a randomised controlled pretest-posttest design that will be conducted in 10 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Five practices will receive the safety climate intervention over a 9-month period. The five practices in the control group will continue care as usual but will complete the GP-SafeQuest safety climate questionnaire at baseline (month 1) and at the terminus of the intervention (month 9). The outcomes of the study include process evaluation metrics (i.e. rates of participant recruitment and retention, rates of completion of safety climate measures, qualitative data regarding participants' perceptions of the intervention's potential efficacy, acceptability, and sustainability), patient safety culture in intervention and control group practices at posttest, and instances of undetected patient harm identified through patient chart audit using the trigger review method. The planned study investigates an intervention to improve safety climate in Irish primary care settings. The resulting data may inform our knowledge of the frequency of undetected patient safety incidents in primary care, may contribute to improved patient safety practices in primary care settings, and may inform future research on patient safety improvement initiatives.

Decaying relevance of clinical data towards future decisions in data-driven inpatient clinical order sets.

PubMed

Chen, Jonathan H; Alagappan, Muthuraman; Goldstein, Mary K; Asch, Steven M; Altman, Russ B

2017-06-01

Determine how varying longitudinal historical training data can impact prediction of future clinical decisions. Estimate the "decay rate" of clinical data source relevance. We trained a clinical order recommender system, analogous to Netflix or Amazon's "Customers who bought A also bought B..." product recommenders, based on a tertiary academic hospital's structured electronic health record data. We used this system to predict future (2013) admission orders based on different subsets of historical training data (2009 through 2012), relative to existing human-authored order sets. Predicting future (2013) inpatient orders is more accurate with models trained on just one month of recent (2012) data than with 12 months of older (2009) data (ROC AUC 0.91 vs. 0.88, precision 27% vs. 22%, recall 52% vs. 43%, all P<10 -10 ). Algorithmically learned models from even the older (2009) data was still more effective than existing human-authored order sets (ROC AUC 0.81, precision 16% recall 35%). Training with more longitudinal data (2009-2012) was no better than using only the most recent (2012) data, unless applying a decaying weighting scheme with a "half-life" of data relevance about 4 months. Clinical practice patterns (automatically) learned from electronic health record data can vary substantially across years. Gold standards for clinical decision support are elusive moving targets, reinforcing the need for automated methods that can adapt to evolving information. Prioritizing small amounts of recent data is more effective than using larger amounts of older data towards future clinical predictions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High mortality after ALPPS for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma: case-control analysis including the first series from the international ALPPS registry

PubMed Central

Olthof, Pim B.; Coelen, Robert J.S.; Wiggers, Jimme K.; Koerkamp, Bas Groot; Malago, Massimo; Hernandez-Alejandro, Roberto; Topp, Stefan A.; Vivarelli, Marco; Aldrighetti, Luca A.; Campos, Ricardo Robles; Oldhafer, Karl J.; Jarnagin, William R.; van Gulik, Thomas M.

2017-01-01

Introduction Resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) entails high-risk surgery with substantial postoperative mortality reported up to 18%, even in specialized centers. The aim of this study was to compare outcomes of PHC patients who underwent associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy (ALPPS) to patients with a small functional liver remnant who underwent resection without ALPSS. Methods All patients who underwent ALPPS for PHC were identified from the international ALPPS registry and matched controls were selected from a standard resection cohort from two centers based on future remnant liver size. Outcomes included morbidity, mortality, and overall survival. Results Of the 37 patients who had undergone ALPPS for PHC in the registry, 29 had sufficient data for analyses. ALPPS for PHC was associated with a 48% (14/29) 90-day mortality and median OS of 6 months. A total of 257 patients underwent major liver resection for PHC without ALPPS. The 90-day mortality was 13% and median OS 46 months. The 29 ALPPS patients were matched to 29 patients resected without ALPPS, with similar future liver remnant volume (P=0.480). Mortality in the matched control group was 24% (P=0.100) and median OS was 27 months (P = 0.064). Discussion Outcomes of ALPPS for PHC appear inferior when compared to standard extended resections in high-risk patients. Considering these outcomes, portal vein embolization should remain the preferred method to increase future remnant liver volume in PHC patients. ALPPS is not recommended for PHC due to the 48% 90-day mortality in expert centers. PMID:28279621

Oral vaccine (OM-89) in the recurrent urinary tract infection prophylaxis: a realistic systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Taha Neto, K A; Nogueira Castilho, L; Reis, L O

2016-05-01

To evaluate the efficacy of Escherichia Coli extract (OM-89) in the prophylaxis of recurrent uncomplicated urinary tract infection (UTI) through a contemporary systematic review and meta-analysis. Inclusion criteria were double-blind randomized trials using orally administrated OM-89, 6mg daily, during three months with a minimum of three months of monitoring. Outcomes were the frequency of bacteriuria in 3 and 6 months, dysuria in 6 months and UTI in 6 months. PubMed, MEDLINE, Cochrane Collaboration and their key references. After analysis by three independent reviewers, 15 double-blind randomized trials were identified, 10 papers excluded due to methods flaws and 5 used for data analysis due to double blinding and reporting drop-outs. Among 5 selected studies the date of publication ranged from 1985 to 2005, totalizing 396 patients in the OM-89 group and 392 in the control group. Overall, there were 61 dropouts in the control group and 76 in the OM-89 group. As a major limitation there was no appropriate description of their methodologies and none of the studies described conflict of interest or commitment to the pharmaceutical industry. All studies were multi-centric, except for two, which showed no clarity on allocation concealment. All studies show benefit in favor of vaccine. Current literature on prospective randomized controlled trials evaluating the use of oral OM-89 vaccine in the recurrent UTI prophylaxis is of low quality, limited to the first six months only and with variable definition of bacteriuria and UTI. Although all studies show benefit in favor of vaccine, no robust trial was identified, resulting in a high heterogeneity in the data analyzed. Also, publication bias could not be excluded and future higher quality studies are warranted adding intermediate (>12 months) and long-term follow-up. Copyright © 2014 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

[Counselling versus cognitive group therapy for tinnitus. A retrospective study of their efficacy].

PubMed

Schmidt, A; Lins, U; Wetscher, I; Welzl-Müller, K; Weichbold, V

2004-03-01

Both counselling and group therapy have been recommended for supporting patients with chronic tinnitus. It is unclear which of these treatments is superior. This retrospective study aimed at comparing relief from tinnitus distress following counselling with that following cognitive group therapy. Distress relief was also compared to the distress level of the waiting group patients. Tinnitus distress was assessed through the Tinnitus Questionnaire (TQ, Goebel and Hiller) at three different times: before treatment (in waiting list patients: at initial contact) and at 3 and 6 months after initial assessment. Data from 21 patients per group were included in the analysis. The initial tinnitus distress scores were similar in all groups (about 48 TQ points out of a maximum of 84). After 3 months, both counselling subjects and group therapy participants exhibited a significant distress reduction of 13 TQ points, which remained stable after 6 months. Patients on the waiting list experienced no distress relief over time. Results from our data demonstrate the need for a future prospective study on the comparison of efficacy of counselling vs cognitive group therapy.

Hazelden's model of treatment and its outcome.

PubMed

Stinchfield, R; Owen, P

1998-01-01

Although the Minnesota Model of treatment for alcohol and drug addiction is a common treatment approach, there are few published reports of its effectiveness. This study describes the Minnesota Model treatment approach as practiced at Hazelden, a private residential alcohol and drug abuse treatment center located in Center City, Minnesota (a founding program of the Minnesota Model) and presents recent outcome results from this program. This study includes 1,083 male and female clients admitted to Hazelden for treatment of a psychoactive substance-use disorder between 1989 and 1991. The outcome study is a one group pretest/posttest design. Data collection occurred at admission to treatment and at 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month posttreatment. At 1-year follow-up, 53% reported that they remained abstinent during the year following treatment and an additional 35% had reduced their alcohol and drug use. These results are similar to those reported by other private treatment programs. The Minnesota Model has consistently yielded satisfactory outcome results, and future research needs to focus on the therapeutic process of this common treatment approach.

Guilt and Effortful Control: Two Mechanisms that Prevent Disruptive Developmental Trajectories

PubMed Central

Kochanska, Grazyna; Barry, Robin A.; Jimenez, Natasha B.; Hollatz, Amanda L.; Woodard, Jarilyn

2009-01-01

Children's guilt associated with transgressions and their capacity for effortful control are both powerful forces that inhibit disruptive conduct. We examined how guilt and effortful control, repeatedly observed from toddler to preschool age, jointly predict children's disruptive outcomes in two multi-method multi-trait longitudinal studies (N's 57 and 99). Disruptive outcomes were rated by mothers at 73 months (Study 1) and mothers, fathers, and teachers at 52 and 67 months (Study 2). In both studies, guilt moderated effects of effortful control: For highly guilt-prone children, variations in effortful control were unrelated to future disruptive outcomes, but for children who were less guilt prone, effortful control predicted such outcomes. Guilt may inhibit transgressions through an automatic response due to negative arousal triggered by memories of past wrongdoing, regardless of child capacity for deliberate inhibition. Effortful control that engages a deliberate restraint may offset risk for disruptive conduct conferred by low guilt. PMID:19634978

[Tobacco, alcohol, and drug use by teenagers in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil: a gender approach].

PubMed

Horta, Rogério Lessa; Horta, Bernardo Lessa; Pinheiro, Ricardo Tavares; Morales, Blanca; Strey, Marlene Neves

2007-04-01

This study assesses the relationship between gender and use of psychoactive substances (alcohol, nicotine, and illicit drugs) by teenagers. In 2002, a cross-sectional study was carried out in the urban area of Pelotas, southern Brazil. Multi-stage sampling was used to obtain a sample of adolescents, 15 to 18 years of age. Subjects were interviewed using a self-applied confidential questionnaire. Smoking was more prevalent among girls, while alcohol consumption in the previous month was more common among boys. Meanwhile, the proportion of adolescents that reported drug use in the previous month was unrelated to gender. Higher cigarette consumption by girls suggests an increase in smoking by women in the future, which highlights the need for a special focus on this area.

Retrospective study of management of uterine sarcomas at Oxford 1990-1998: role of adjuvant treatment.

PubMed

Riddle, P J; Echeta, C B; Manek, S; Lavery, B A; Charnock, F M L; Mackenzie, I; Ganesan, T S

2002-02-01

We report a retrospective study of 47 consecutive patients with uterine sarcoma treated at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford between 1990-1998. The mainstay of treatment was surgery with adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy reserved for selected patients with early stage disease. Overall 1 and 2 year survival was 49% and 30% respectively compared with 73% and 55% in the group who received adjuvant chemotherapy/radiotherapy. Median survival was 11 months for the group as a whole compared to 32.9 months in the adjuvant therapy group. This is a retrospective review with small numbers and considerable selection bias, however, given the poor survival of patients with this disease, adjuvant treatment should be considered in future trials of patients with uterine sarcoma.

Clustering of worry appraisals among college students.

PubMed

Schwab, Nicholas G; Cullum, Jerry C; Harton, Helen C

2016-01-01

The present study investigated the potential clustering of worry appraisals within college social networks. Participants living in campus residence buildings responded to online surveys across the course of several months. Worry appraisals were measured 10 weeks into the fall semester and again approximately 6 months later. Analysis of sociometric data suggests that the majority of participants' social interactions occurred within their respective residence building floors, indicating that proximity strongly influenced the development of social network ties and sources of social influence. Further, significant clustering of worry appraisals occurred across time, and more importantly, within residence building floors. The present findings compliment previous work suggesting that several physical and psychological states appear to spread and cluster within social networks. Implications for the study of emotional appraisals and future research are discussed.

Adolescent and Young Adult Patient Engagement and Participation in Survey-Based Research: A Report From the "Resilience in Adolescents and Young Adults With Cancer" Study.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Abby R; Bona, Kira; Wharton, Claire M; Bradford, Miranda; Shaffer, Michele L; Wolfe, Joanne; Baker, Kevin Scott

2016-04-01

Conducting patient-reported outcomes research with adolescents and young adults (AYAs) is difficult due to low participation rates and high attrition. Forty-seven AYAs with newly diagnosed cancer at two large hospitals were prospectively surveyed at the time of diagnosis and 3-6 and 12-18 months later. A subset participated in 1:1 semistructured interviews. Attrition prompted early study closure at one site. The majority of patients preferred paper-pencil to online surveys. Interview participants were more likely to complete surveys (e.g., 93% vs. 58% completion of 3-6 month surveys, P = 0.02). Engaging patients through qualitative methodologies and using patient-preferred instruments may optimize future research success. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Optimal Screening for Prediction of Referral and Outcome (OSPRO) in patients with musculoskeletal pain conditions: a longitudinal validation cohort from the USA

PubMed Central

George, Steven Z; Beneciuk, Jason M; Lentz, Trevor A; Wu, Samuel S

2017-01-01

Purpose There is an increased need for determining which patients with musculoskeletal pain benefit from additional diagnostic testing or psychologically informed intervention. The Optimal Screening for Prediction of Referral and Outcome (OSPRO) cohort studies were designed to develop and validate standard assessment tools for review of systems and yellow flags. This cohort profile paper provides a description of and future plans for the validation cohort. Participants Patients (n=440) with primary complaint of spine, shoulder or knee pain were recruited into the OSPRO validation cohort via a national Orthopaedic Physical Therapy-Investigative Network. Patients were followed up at 4 weeks, 6 months and 12 months for pain, functional status and quality of life outcomes. Healthcare utilisation outcomes were also collected at 6 and 12 months. Findings to date There are no longitudinal findings reported to date from the ongoing OSPRO validation cohort. The previously completed cross-sectional OSPRO development cohort yielded two assessment tools that were investigated in the validation cohort. Future plans Follow-up data collection was completed in January 2017. Primary analyses will investigate how accurately the OSPRO review of systems and yellow flag tools predict 12-month pain, functional status, quality of life and healthcare utilisation outcomes. Planned secondary analyses include prediction of pain interference and/or development of chronic pain, investigation of treatment expectation on patient outcomes and analysis of patient satisfaction following an episode of physical therapy. Trial registration number The OSPRO validation cohort was not registered. PMID:28600371

Body Mass Index and Menstrual Patterns in Dancers.

PubMed

Stracciolini, Andrea; Quinn, Bridget J; Geminiani, Ellen; Kinney, Susan; McCrystal, Tara; Owen, Michael; Pepin, Michael J; Stein, Cynthia J

2016-04-18

Questionnaires were distributed to investigate body mass index (BMI) and menstrual patterns in female dancers aged 12 to 17 years. The study cohort consisted of 105 dancers, mean age 14.8 ± 1.1 years, and mean BMI 19.5 ± 2.3 kg/m 2 In all, 92% were healthy weight for height. First menses age ranged from 10 to 15 years (mean 12.9 ± 1.1 years). A total of 44% reported irregular menses; of those, 14% described irregularity as "every other month," 37% as "every 3 months," and 49% as "skips a month occasionally." A total of 36% of the dancers stop getting their menses during times of increased activity/dance, and 30% have gone >3 months at any time without getting their menses. A significant negative correlation between BMI and age of first menses was found with lower BMI associated with increased age of first menses (linear regression, β = -0.49,P= .021). This study supports an association between BMI and age of menarche among young female dancers. Given bone health reliance on hormonal milieu in female dancers, future research is warranted. © The Author(s) 2016.

Standardized Percentile Curves of Body Mass Index of Northeast Iranian Children Aged 25 to 60 Months

PubMed Central

Emdadi, Maryam; Safarian, Mohammad; Doosti, Hassan

2011-01-01

Objective Growth charts are widely used to assess children's growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. Racial differences necessitate using local growth charts. This study aimed to provide standardized growth curves of body mass index (BMI) for children living in northeast Iran. Methods A total of 23730 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 25 to 60 months recruited for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The LMSP method with maximum penalized likelihood, the Generalized Additive Models, the Box-Cox power exponential distribution distribution, Akaike Information Criteria and Generalized Akaike Criteria with penalty equal to 3 [GAIC(3)], and Worm plot and Q-tests as goodness of fit tests were used to construct the centile reference charts. Findings The BMI centile curves for boys and girls aged 25 to 60 months were drawn utilizing a population of children living in northeast Iran. Conclusion The results of the current study demonstrate the possibility of preparation of local growth charts and their importance in evaluating children's growth. Also their differences, relative to those prepared by global references, reflect the necessity of preparing local charts in future studies using longitudinal data. PMID:23056770

Initiation and progression of physical activity after laparoscopic and open gastric bypass surgery.

PubMed

Evans, Ronald K; Bond, Dale S; Demaria, Eric J; Wolfe, Luke G; Meador, Jill G; Kellum, John M

2004-12-01

This study compared postoperative physical activity participation among patients who underwent laparoscopic (LGBS) or open gastric bypass surgery (OGBS). Postoperative physical activity participation is considered important for achieving optimal weight loss and maintenance after gastric bypass surgery. However, no study has examined the relationship between surgery type and postoperative physical activity. Minimal invasiveness and reduced recovery time associated with LGBS compared with OGBS may permit earlier initiation and faster progression of postsurgical physical activity and potentially contribute to greater long-term adherence rates. Self-reported physical activity participation and aerobic physical activity hours per week at 2-weeks, 3-months, and 6-months postsurgery were assessed among LGBS and OGBS patients (presurgical body mass index of 35 to 70 kg/m(2)) at a university hospital from 1988-2002. Of the 2,235 patients, 531 (24%) and 1704 (76%) underwent LGBS and OGBS, respectively. A greater proportion of LGBS patients reported physical activity participation at each time point compared with OGBS patients (2 week, 76% vs 62%; 3 months, 84% vs 74%; 6 months, 85% vs 76%). Furthermore, LGBS patients reported a significantly greater physical activity duration at 2-weeks postsurgery compared with OGBS patients. A nonsignificant trend toward greater physical activity duration was observed in the LGBS patients at 3 months, whereas 6-month physical activity duration was similar between groups. LGBS, compared with OGBS, may promote earlier onset, progression, and maintenance of physical activity until 6 months postsurgery. Future studies need to prospectively determine whether LGBS, via facilitation of greater engagement in postsurgical physical activity, contributes to more successful weight loss and weight maintenance compared with OGBS.

A randomized controlled trial of methotrexate for patients with generalized myasthenia gravis.

PubMed

Pasnoor, Mamatha; He, Jianghua; Herbelin, Laura; Burns, Ted M; Nations, Sharon; Bril, Vera; Wang, Annabel K; Elsheikh, Bakri H; Kissel, John T; Saperstein, David; Shaibani, J Aziz; Jackson, Carlayne; Swenson, Andrea; Howard, James F; Goyal, Namita; David, William; Wicklund, Matthew; Pulley, Michael; Becker, Mara; Mozaffar, Tahseen; Benatar, Michael; Pazcuzzi, Robert; Simpson, Ericka; Rosenfeld, Jeffrey; Dimachkie, Mazen M; Statland, Jeffrey M; Barohn, Richard J

2016-07-05

To determine the steroid-sparing effect of methotrexate (MTX) in patients with symptomatic generalized myasthenia gravis (MG). We performed a 12-month multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of MTX 20 mg orally every week vs placebo in 50 acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive patients with MG between April 2009 and August 2014. The primary outcome measure was the prednisone area under the dose-time curve (AUDTC) from months 4 to 12. Secondary outcome measures included 12-month changes of the Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis Score, the Myasthenia Gravis Composite Score, Manual Muscle Testing, the Myasthenia Gravis Quality of Life, and the Myasthenia Gravis Activities of Daily Living. Fifty-eight patients were screened and 50 enrolled. MTX did not reduce the month 4-12 prednisone AUDTC when compared to placebo (difference MTX - placebo: -488.0 mg, 95% confidence interval -2,443.4 to 1,467.3, p = 0.26); however, the average daily prednisone dose decreased in both groups. MTX did not improve secondary measures of MG compared to placebo over 12 months. Eight participants withdrew during the course of the study (1 MTX, 7 placebo). There were no serious MTX-related adverse events. The most common adverse event was nonspecific pain (19%). We found no steroid-sparing benefit of MTX in MG over 12 months of treatment, despite being well-tolerated. This study demonstrates the challenges of conducting clinical trials in MG, including difficulties with recruitment, participants improving on prednisone alone, and the need for a better understanding of outcome measure variability for future clinical trials. This study provides Class I evidence that for patients with generalized MG MTX does not significantly reduce the prednisone AUDTC over 12 months of therapy. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Effectiveness of different methods for delivering tailored nutrition education to low income, ethnically diverse adults

PubMed Central

Gans, Kim M; Risica, Patricia M; Strolla, Leslie O; Fournier, Leanne; Kirtania, Usree; Upegui, David; Zhao, Julie; George, Tiffiney; Acharyya, Suddhasatta

2009-01-01

Background Computer-tailored written nutrition interventions have been shown to be more effective than non-tailored materials in changing diet, but continued research is needed. Your Healthy Life/Su Vida Saludable (YHL-SVS) was an intervention study with low income, ethnically diverse, English and Spanish-speaking participants to determine which methods of delivering tailored written nutrition materials were most effective in lowering fat and increasing fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake. Methods YHL-SVS was a randomized controlled trial with four experimental conditions: 1) Nontailored (NT) comparison group; 2) Single Tailored (ST) packet; 3) Multiple Tailored (MT) packet mailed in four installments; 4) Multiple Re-Tailored (MRT) MT packets re-tailored between mailings via brief phone surveys. A baseline telephone survey collected information for tailoring as well as evaluation. Follow-up evaluation surveys were collected 4- and 7-months later. Primary outcomes included F&V intake and fat related behaviors. Descriptive statistics, paired t-test and ANOVA were used to examine the effectiveness of different methods of delivering tailored nutrition information. Results Both the ST and MT groups reported significantly higher F&V intake at 4-months than the NT and MRT groups. At 7 months, only the MT group still had significantly higher F&V intake compared to the NT group. For changes in fat-related behaviors, both the MT and MRT groups showed more change than NT at 4 months, but at 7 months, while these differences persisted, they were no longer statistically significant. There was a significant interaction of experimental group by education for change in F&V intake (P = .0085) with the lowest educational group demonstrating the most change. Conclusion In this study, tailored interventions were more effective than non-tailored interventions in improving the short-term dietary behaviors of low income, ethnically diverse participants. Delivery of information in multiple smaller doses over time appeared to improve effectiveness. Future studies should determine which variables are mediators of dietary change and whether these differ by participant demographics. Moreover, future research should differentiate the effects of tailoring vs. cultural adaptation in ethnically diverse populations and study the dissemination of tailored interventions into community-based settings. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials # NCT00301691. PMID:19416525

The Implementation of a Structured Nursing Leadership Development Program for Succession Planning in a Health System.

PubMed

Ramseur, Priscilla; Fuchs, Mary Ann; Edwards, Pamela; Humphreys, Janice

2018-01-01

Preparing future nursing leaders to be successful is important because many current leaders will retire in large numbers in the future. A structured nursing leadership development program utilizing the Essentials of Nurse Manager Orientation online program provided future nursing leaders with content aligned with nursing leadership competencies. Paired with assigned mentors and monthly leadership sessions, the participants increased their perception of leadership competence.

Operational Use of Civil Space-Based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montgomery, Donald R. (Editor)

1996-01-01

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is a remote-sensing technology which uses the motion of the aircraft or spacecraft carrying the radar to synthesize an antenna aperture larger than the physical antenna to yield a high-spatial resolution imaging capability. SAR systems can thus obtain high-spatial resolution geophysical measurements of the Earth over wide surface areas, under all-weather, day/night conditions. This report was prepared to document the results of a six-month study by an Ad Hoc Interagency Working Group on the Operational Use of Civil (i.e., non-military) Space-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The Assistant Administrator of NOAA for Satellite and Information Services convened this working group and chaired three meetings of the group over a six-month period. This action was taken in response to a request by the Associate Administrator of NASA for Mission to Planet Earth for an assessment of operational applications of SAR to be accomplished in parallel with a separate study requested of the Committee on Earth Studies of the Space Studies Board of the National Research Council on the scientific results of SAR research missions. The representatives of participating agencies are listed following the Preface. There was no formal charter for the working group or long term plans for future meetings. However, the working group may be reconstituted in the future as a coordination body for multiagency use of operational SAR systems.

78 FR 49563 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-14

... futures on all of the volatility indexes that underlie volatility index options trading on CBOE. Currently, volatility index (security) futures expirations correspond to each volatility index options expiration months...-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Proposed Rule To Amend Rule...

78 FR 77697 - Federal Property Suitable as Facilities To Assist the Homeless

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-24

...; no future agency need; 800 sq. ft.; office; significant water damage; repairs a must; asbestos/lead... damage to Admin. bldg.; bathroom; major repairs required; contamination; asbestos; contact GSA for more... future agency USE; 1,014 sq. ft.; 108+ months vacant; extensive termite damage; asbestos; mold, lead...

Building the Workforce of the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

González-Rivera, Christian

2016-01-01

"Building the Workforce of the Future" is an in-depth, independent report on the first eighteen months of Career Pathways, New York City's sweeping new strategy for workforce development. In November 2014, Mayor de Blasio launched a sweeping new approach to workforce development in New York City. Unlike the previous model, which…

Association of Serum Calprotectin (S100A8/A9) Level With Disease Relapse in Proteinase 3-Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis.

PubMed

Pepper, Ruth J; Draibe, Juliana B; Caplin, Ben; Fervenza, Fernando C; Hoffman, Gary S; Kallenberg, Cees G M; Langford, Carol A; Monach, Paul A; Seo, Philip; Spiera, Robert; William St Clair, E; Tchao, Nadia K; Stone, John H; Specks, Ulrich; Merkel, Peter A; Salama, Alan D

2017-01-01

S100A8/A9 (calprotectin) has shown promise as a biomarker for predicting relapse in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV). This study was undertaken to investigate serum S100A8/A9 level as a biomarker for predicting future relapse in a large cohort of patients with severe AAV. Serum levels of S100A8/A9 were measured at baseline and months 1, 2, and 6 following treatment initiation in 144 patients in the Rituximab in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis trial (cyclophosphamide/azathioprine versus rituximab [RTX] for induction of remission) in whom complete remission was attained. Patients were divided into 4 groups: proteinase 3 (PR3)-ANCA with relapse (n = 37), PR3-ANCA without relapse (n = 56), myeloperoxidase (MPO)-ANCA with relapse (n = 6), and MPO-ANCA without relapse (n = 45). Serum S100A8/A9 level decreased in all groups during the first 6 months of treatment. The percentage reduction from baseline to month 2 was significantly different between patients who experienced a relapse and those who did not in the PR3-ANCA group (P = 0.046). A significantly higher risk of relapse was associated with an increase in S100A8/A9 level between baseline and month 2 (P = 0.0043) and baseline and month 6 (P = 0.0029). Subgroup analysis demonstrated that patients treated with RTX who had increased levels of S100A8/A9 were at greatest risk of future relapse (P = 0.028). An increase in serum S100A8/A9 level by month 2 or 6 compared to baseline identifies a subgroup of PR3-ANCA patients treated with RTX who are at higher risk of relapse by 18 months. Since RTX is increasingly used for remission induction in PR3-ANCA-positive patients experiencing a relapse, S100A8/A9 level may assist in identifying those patients requiring more intensive or prolonged treatment. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

"I Have Papers so I Can Go Anywhere!": Everyday Talk about Citizenship in a Mixed-Status Mexican Family

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mangual Figueroa, Ariana

2012-01-01

This article draws from ethnographic data collected during a 23-month--language socialization study of mixed-status Mexican families living in the New Latino Diaspora. The analysis focuses on the ways in which siblings in one family talk about citizenship during a discursive event that I call the Planning for the Future Routine. The findings show…

"I Wanna Have a Good Future": Teen Mothers' Rise in Educational Aspirations, Competing Demands, and Limited School Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

SmithBattle, Lee

2007-01-01

This longitudinal study examined teen mothers' descriptions of being students before and after giving birth and the impact of mothering on their educational goals and school progress. Nineteen teens and at least one of their parents were interviewed six times from the third trimester of pregnancy to 10 months postpartum. Regardless of their school…

Parenting and Infant Temperament amongst Pakistani Women Living in the UK According to Country of Birth: Results from the Born in Bradford Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prady, Stephanie L.; Kiernan, Kathleen; Fairley, Lesley; Wright, John

2013-01-01

Some parenting behaviours and child characteristics can result in future behavioural problems. Relatively little is known about parenting behaviours in Pakistani-origin women, and how the timing of migration to the United Kingdom might affect such behaviours. We analysed differences in parenting behaviours and six-month infant temperament by…

Science and technology review, April 1997

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Upadhye, R.

1997-04-01

This month's issue has the following articles: (1) The Laboratory in the News; (2) Commentary by Tom Isaacs--Shaping Nuclear Materials Policy; (3) Dealing with a Dangerous Surplus from the Cold War--Since the end of the Cold War, the Laboratory has been spearheading studies on the disposition of surplus weapons plutonium; (4) Volcanoes: A Peek into Our Planet's Plumbing; and (5) Optical Networks: The Wave of the Future.

The association between observed non-verbal maternal responses at 12 months and later infant development at 18 months and IQ at 4 years: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Pearson, R M; Heron, J; Melotti, R; Joinson, C; Stein, A; Ramchandani, P G; Evans, J

2011-12-01

An infant's early environment has an important influence on their development. For example, the sensitivity and warmth of a mother's responses towards her infant is associated with the infant's later socio-emotional development. However, it is less clear whether maternal responses are associated with the infant's later cognitive development. We used data from a large UK cohort study to investigate the association between non-verbal maternal responses and later infant development and IQ. Maternal responses were rated at 12 months during an observed mother-infant interaction. Infant development was assessed using the Griffiths scales at 18 months and IQ at 4 years was assessed using the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence (WPPSI). Data on the infant's developmental level at 6 months (prior to the maternal response ratings) was also available. The complete case sample comprised 732 mother-infant pairs. There was evidence for an association between positive maternal responses and infant development at 18 months. After adjusting for infant developmental level at 6 months and other confounders, we found a difference of 0.25 standard deviations (coef 2.0, 95% CI (0.8-3.2), p=0.002) on the Griffiths scales between infant's whose mothers showed positive compared to neutral non-verbal responses at 12 months. However, an association between positive maternal responses and IQ at 4 years diminished following adjustment for maternal educational attainment. The results provide evidence that positive maternal responses are associated with improved development in infants at 18 months. However, the association between maternal response and IQ at 4 years may be explained by higher educational attainment in mothers who show positive responses. Future studies are needed to explore the influence of maternal responses on different aspects of infant development as well as the role of maternal factors such as education. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of septoplasty on olfactory function evaluated by the Brief Smell Identification Test: A study of 116 patients.

PubMed

Haytoğlu, Süheyl; Dengiz, Ramazan; Muluk, Nuray Bayar; Kuran, Gökhan; Arikan, Osman Kursat

2017-01-01

We conducted a prospective study of 116 patients-61 men and 55 women, aged 17 to 64 years (mean: 26.4)-to investigate the effects of septoplasty on olfactory function in patients with septal deviation (SD). The Mladina classification system was used to define SD types, and olfactory function was assessed with the Brief Smell Identification test (BSIT). The BSIT, which includes 12 odorants, was administered preoperatively and at postoperative months 1 and 3. The most common SD types were types 2 (20.7% of patients) and 1 (19.0%), followed by types 3 and 5 (both 16.4%). At postoperative month 1, the mean BSIT score was significantly higher in men than in the women. For patients with types 1 and 2 SD, BSIT scores at 1 month were significantly lower than the scores preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively. For types 3 and 4, BSIT values were significantly higher at 3 months than preoperatively or at 1 month. For type 3 SD, the preoperative mean score was significantly lower than those for types 1, 4, 5, 6, and 7; for type 2 SD, the BSIT score was significantly lower than those of types 5 and 6 only. At 1 month, the scores for types 2 and 3 were significantly lower than those for types 4, 5, 6, and 7. At 3 months, the BSIT score for type 2 was significantly lower than those of types 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6; the type 3 SD score at 3 months was significantly higher than those for types 1, 2, 5, 6, and 7. We conclude that septoplasty surgery for patients with a type 3 SD may improve olfactory function. In contrast, we found that olfactory function in patients with a type 2 SD did not improve to a satisfactory degree, even when good nasal patency was achieved with a corrected septum and an enlarged intranasal volume. Our findings should be investigated further in future studies.

Predicting functional communication ability in children with cerebral palsy at school entry.

PubMed

Coleman, Andrea; Weir, Kelly; Ware, Robert S; Boyd, Roslyn

2015-03-01

To explore the value of demographic, environmental, and early clinical characteristics in predicting functional communication in children with cerebral palsy (CP) at school entry. Data are from an Australian prospective longitudinal study of children with CP. Children assessed at 18 to 24 and 48 to 60 months corrected age were included in the study. Functional communication was classified at 48 to 60 months using the Communication Function Classification System (CFCS). Predictive variables included communication skills at 18 to 24 months, evaluated using the Communication and Symbolic Behavioural Scales Developmental Profile (CSBS-DP) Infant-Toddler Checklist. Early Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS), Manual Ability Classification System, and motor type and distribution were evaluated by two physiotherapists. Demographic and comorbid variables were obtained through parent interview with a paediatrician or rehabilitation specialist. A total of 114 children (76 males, 38 females) were included in the study. At 18 to 24 months the mean CSBS-DP was 84.9 (SD 19.0). The CFCS distribution at 48 to 60 months was I=36(32%), II=25(22%), III=20(18%), IV=19(17%), and V=14(12%). In multivariable regression analysis, only CSBS-DP (p<0.01) and GMFCS (p<0.01) at 18 to 24 months were predictors of functional communication at school entry. Body structure and function and not environmental factors impact functional communication at school entry in children with CP. This provides valuable guidance for early screening, parent education, and future planning of intervention programs to improve functional communication. © 2014 Mac Keith Press.

17 CFR 1.34 - Monthly record, “point balance”.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... REGULATIONS UNDER THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE ACT Recordkeeping § 1.34 Monthly record, “point balance”. (a) Each... statement commonly known as a “point balance,” which accrues or brings to the official closing price, or... contracts long and short in the customers' accounts are in balance with those in the carrying futures...

17 CFR 1.34 - Monthly record, “point balance”.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... REGULATIONS UNDER THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE ACT Recordkeeping § 1.34 Monthly record, “point balance”. (a) Each... statement commonly known as a “point balance,” which accrues or brings to the official closing price, or... contracts long and short in the customers' accounts are in balance with those in the carrying futures...

Pleasure Now, Pain Later: Positive Fantasies About the Future Predict Symptoms of Depression.

PubMed

Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Portnow, Sam

2016-03-01

Though common sense suggests that positive thinking shelters people from depression, the four studies reported here showed that this intuition needs to be qualified: Positive thinking in the form of fantasies about the future did indeed relate to decreased symptoms of depression when measured concurrently; however, positive fantasies predicted more depressive symptoms when measured longitudinally. The pattern of results was observed for different indicators of fantasies and depression, in adults and in schoolchildren, and for periods of up to 7 months (Studies 1-4). In college students, low academic success partially mediated the predictive relation between positive fantasies and symptoms of depression (Study 4). Results add to existing research on the problematic effects of positive fantasies on performance by suggesting that indulging in positive fantasies predicts problems in mental health. © The Author(s) 2016.

Norovirus prevalence in ‘pathogen negative’ gastroenteritis in children from periurban areas in Lima, Peru

PubMed Central

Rivera, Fulton P.; Ochoa, Theresa J.; Ruiz, Joaquim; Medina, Anicia M.; Ecker, Lucie; Mercado, Erik; Gil, Ana I.; Huicho, Luis; Lanata, Claudio F.

2011-01-01

Summary Norovirus was detected in 17.4% of 224 diarrhoeal samples from children younger than 24 months of age in Lima, in whom all common pathogens had been excluded (pathogen negative). Norovirus was identified more frequently in children older than 12 months of age than in younger children (34% vs 8%, P<0.001). Among norovirus-positive samples, genogroup II was the predominant group (92%). Compared with rotavirus, norovirus episodes tended to be of shorter duration and less severe. The role of norovirus as a cause of diarrhoea and the ascertainment of its severity in developing countries needs further confirmation by future epidemiological studies. PMID:21962615

Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts changes in depression in a community sample.

PubMed

Van Daele, Tom; Griffith, James W; Van den Bergh, Omer; Hermans, Dirk

2014-01-01

This study investigated whether overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) predicts the course of symptoms of depression and anxiety in a community sample, after 5, 6, 12 and 18 months. Participants (N=156) completed the Autobiographical Memory Test and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21) at baseline and were subsequently reassessed using the DASS-21 at four time points over a period of 18 months. Using latent growth curve modelling, we found that OGM was associated with a linear increase in depression. We were unable to detect changes over time in anxiety. OGM may be an important marker to identify people at risk for depression in the future, but more research is needed with anxiety.

Attack-Related Life Disruption and Child Psychopathology in New York City Public Schoolchildren 6-Months Post-9/11

PubMed Central

Comer, Jonathan S.; Fan, Bin; Duarte, Cristiane S.; Wu, Ping; Musa, George J.; Mandell, Donald J.; Albano, Anne Marie; Hoven, Christina W.

2014-01-01

In the aftermath of disasters, understanding relationships between disaster-related life disruption and children’s functioning is key to informing future postdisaster intervention efforts. The present study examined attack-related life disruptions and psychopathology in a representative sample (N = 8,236) of New York City public schoolchildren (Grades 4–12) surveyed 6 months after September 11, 2001. One in 5 youth reported a family member lost their job because of the attacks, and 1 in 3 reported their parents restricted their postattack travel. These forms of disruption were, in turn, associated with elevated rates of probable posttraumatic stress disorder and other anxiety disorders (and major depressive disorder in the case of restricted travel). Results indicate that adverse disaster-related experiences extend beyond traumatic exposure and include the prolonged ripple of postdisaster life disruption and economic hardship. Future postdisaster efforts must, in addition to ensuring the availability of mental health services for proximally exposed youth, maintain a focus on youth burdened by disaster-related life disruption. PMID:20589558

Shallow aquifer response to climate change scenarios in a small catchment in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone.

PubMed

Melo, Davi C D; Wendland, Edson

2017-05-01

Water availability restrictions are already a reality in several countries. This issue is likely to worsen due to climate change, predicted for the upcoming decades. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate change on groundwater system in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models (GCM) outputs were used as inputs to a water balance model, which produced recharge estimates for the groundwater model. Recharge was estimated across different land use types considering a control period from 2004 to 2014, and a future period from 2081 to 2099. Major changes in monthly rainfall means are expected to take place in dry seasons. Most of the analysed scenarios predict increase of more than 2 ºC in monthly mean temperatures. Comparing the control and future runs, our results showed a mean recharge change among scenarios that ranged from ~-80 to ~+60%, depending on the land use type. As a result of such decrease in recharge rates, the response given by the groundwater model indicates a lowering of the water table under most scenarios.

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-01-01

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

Social Support, Parenting Competence, and Parenting Satisfaction Among Adolescent, African American, Mothers.

PubMed

Brown, Sara G; Hudson, Diane B; Campbell-Grossman, Christie; Kupzyk, Kevin A; Yates, Bernice C; Hanna, Kathleen M

2018-04-01

This secondary analysis explored how social support changed during the first 6 months postpartum and examined the relationships among social support, parenting competence, and parenting role satisfaction. Single, low-income, adolescent, new mothers ( N = 34) completed measures of perceived parenting competence, parenting role satisfaction, and four types of received social support (emotional, informational, tangible, problematic) from the entire social network at 1 week, 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months postpartum. Results indicated that social support did not change over time. Emotional, informational, and tangible social support were significantly correlated, concurrently and predictively, with perceived competence and satisfaction at most data collection points. Future social support intervention studies using social support as a modifiable variable with this high-risk group of African American adolescent new mothers are advocated. Health care professionals are encouraged to examine existing social support within these mothers' identified family units.

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-02-03

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

Conscientiousness and reactions to psychological contract breach: a longitudinal field study.

PubMed

Orvis, Karin A; Dudley, Nicole M; Cortina, Jose M

2008-09-01

The authors examined the role of employee conscientiousness as a moderator of the relationships between psychological contract breach and employee behavioral and attitudinal reactions to the breach. They collected data from 106 newly hired employees within the 1st month of employment (Time 1), 3 months later (Time 2), and 8 months after Time 1 (Time 3) to observe the progression through contract development, breach, and reaction. Results suggest that conscientiousness is a significant moderator for 4 of the 5 contract breach-employee reaction relationships examined (turnover intentions, organizational loyalty, job satisfaction, and 1 of 2 facets of job performance). Specifically, employees who were lower in conscientiousness had more negative reactions to perceived breach with respect to turnover intentions, organizational loyalty, and job satisfaction. In contrast, employees who were higher in conscientiousness reduced their job performance to a greater degree in response to contract breach. Future research directions are discussed.

Effects of mental health interventions for students in higher education are sustainable over time: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Winzer, Regina; Lindberg, Lene; Guldbrandsson, Karin; Sidorchuk, Anna

2018-01-01

Symptoms of depression, anxiety, and distress are more common in undergraduates compared to age-matched peers. Mental ill health among students is associated with impaired academic achievement, worse occupational preparedness, and lower future occupational performance. Research on mental health promoting and mental ill health preventing interventions has shown promising short-term effects, though the sustainability of intervention benefits deserve closer attention. We aimed to identify, appraise and summarize existing data from randomized control trials (RCTs) reporting on whether the effects of mental health promoting and mental ill health preventing interventions were sustained at least three months post-intervention, and to analyze how the effects vary for different outcomes in relation to follow-up length. Further, we aimed to assess whether the effect sustainability varied by intervention type, study-level determinants and of participant characteristics. A systematic search in MEDLINE, PsycInfo, ERIC, and Scopus was performed for RCTs published in 1995-2015 reporting an assessment of mental ill health and positive mental health outcomes for, at least, three months of post-intervention follow-up. Random-effect modeling was utilized for quantitative synthesis of the existing evidence with standardized mean difference (Hedges' g ) used to estimate an aggregated effect size. Sustainability of the effects of interventions was analyzed separately for 3-6 months, 7-12 months, and 13-18 months of post-intervention follow-up. About 26 studies were eligible after reviewing 6,571 citations. The pooled effects were mainly small, but significant for several categories of outcomes. Thus, for the combined mental ill health outcomes, symptom-reduction sustained up to 7-12 months post-intervention (standardized mean difference (Hedges' g ) effect size (ES) = -0.28 (95% CI [-0.49, -0.08])). Further, sustainability of symptom-reductions were evident for depression with intervention effect lasting up to 13-18 months (ES = -0.30 (95% CI [-0.51, -0.08])), for anxiety up to 7-12 months (ES = -0.27 (95% CI [-0.54, -0.01])), and for stress up to 3-6 months (ES = -0.30 (95% CI [-0.58, -0.03])). The effects of interventions to enhance positive mental health were sustained up to 3-6 months for the combined positive mental health outcomes (ES = 0.32 (95% CI [0.05, 0.59])). For enhanced active coping, sustainability up to 3-6 months was observed with a medium and significant effect (ES = 0.75 (95% CI [0.19, 1.30])). The evidence suggests long-term effect sustainability for mental ill health preventive interventions, especially for interventions to reduce the symptoms of depression and symptoms of anxiety. Interventions to promote positive mental health offer promising, but shorter-lasting effects. Future research should focus on mental health organizational interventions to examine their potential for students in tertiary education.

Determinants of breastfeeding initiation and cessation among employed mothers: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dagher, Rada K; McGovern, Patricia M; Schold, Jesse D; Randall, Xian J

2016-07-29

The U.S. continues to have one of the lowest breastfeeding rates in the industrialized world. Studies have shown that full-time employment and early return to work decreased breastfeeding duration, but little is known about the relationship between leave policies and breastfeeding initiation and cessation. This study aimed to identify workplace-related barriers and facilitators associated with breastfeeding initiation and cessation in the first 6 months postpartum. A prospective cohort study design was utilized to recruit 817 Minnesota women aged 18 and older while hospitalized for childbirth. Selection criteria included English-speaking, employed mothers with a healthy, singleton birth. These women were followed up using telephone interviews at 6 weeks, 12 weeks, and 6 months after childbirth. The main study outcomes were breastfeeding initiation, measured during hospital enrollment, and breastfeeding cessation by 6 months postpartum. Women were 30 years old; 86 % were White, and 73 % were married. Breastfeeding rates were 81 % at childbirth, 67 % at 6 weeks, 49 % at 12 weeks, and 33 % at 6 months postpartum. Logistic regression revealed the odds of breastfeeding initiation were higher for women who: held professional jobs, were primiparae, had graduate degree, did not smoke prenatally, had no breastfeeding problems, and had family or friends who breastfeed. Survival analyses showed the hazard for breastfeeding cessation by 6 months was: higher for women who returned to work at any time during the 6 months postpartum versus those who did not return, lower for professional workers, higher among single than married women, higher for every educational category compared to graduate school, and higher for those with no family or friends who breastfeed. While employer paid leave policy did not affect breastfeeding initiation or cessation, women who took shorter leaves were more likely to stop breastfeeding in the first 6 months postpartum. Future research should examine women's awareness of employer policies regarding paid and unpaid leave.

Breakthrough seizures—Further analysis of the Standard versus New Antiepileptic Drugs (SANAD) study

PubMed Central

Powell, Graham A.; Tudur Smith, Catrin; Marson, Anthony G.

2017-01-01

Objectives To develop prognostic models for risk of a breakthrough seizure, risk of seizure recurrence after a breakthrough seizure, and likelihood of achieving 12-month remission following a breakthrough seizure. A breakthrough seizure is one that occurs following at least 12 months remission whilst on treatment. Methods We analysed data from the SANAD study. This long-term randomised trial compared treatments for participants with newly diagnosed epilepsy. Multivariable Cox models investigated how clinical factors affect the probability of each outcome. Best fitting multivariable models were produced with variable reduction by Akaike’s Information Criterion. Risks associated with combinations of risk factors were calculated from each multivariable model. Results Significant factors in the multivariable model for risk of a breakthrough seizure following 12-month remission were number of tonic-clonic seizures by achievement of 12-month remission, time taken to achieve 12-month remission, and neurological insult. Significant factors in the model for risk of seizure recurrence following a breakthrough seizure were total number of drugs attempted to achieve 12-month remission, time to achieve 12-month remission prior to breakthrough seizure, and breakthrough seizure treatment decision. Significant factors in the model for likelihood of achieving 12-month remission after a breakthrough seizure were gender, age at breakthrough seizure, time to achieve 12-month remission prior to breakthrough, and breakthrough seizure treatment decision. Conclusions This is the first analysis to consider risk of a breakthrough seizure and subsequent outcomes. The described models can be used to identify people most likely to have a breakthrough seizure, a seizure recurrence following a breakthrough seizure, and to achieve 12-month remission following a breakthrough seizure. The results suggest that focussing on achieving 12-month remission swiftly represents the best therapeutic aim to reduce the risk of a breakthrough seizure and subsequent negative outcomes. This will aid individual patient risk stratification and the design of future epilepsy trials. PMID:29267375

Genetic and phenotypic analysis of daily Israeli Holstein milk, fat, and protein production as determined by a real-time milk analyzer.

PubMed

Weller, J I; Ezra, E

2016-12-01

The objective was to test the hypothesis that more frequent but less accurately analyzed milk components may give a more representative measure of a cow's total lactation production. Daily records for milk production and fat and protein concentration collected by the AfiLab recording system (Afimilk, Kibbutz Afikim, Israel) from January 2014 to January 2016 from 47 large kibbutz (communal) herds distributed throughout Israel with a total of 37,486 Israeli Holstein cows were compared with the same statistics derived from monthly test day records derived by Bentley and Foss milk analyzers at the central laboratory of the Israel Cattle Breeders Association. The lactation means for all traits were quite similar for the 2 methods in both parities, except for fat production, which was lower for the daily records. This finding corresponded to fat lactation curves, which showed that daily results were lower with low days in milk (DIM) but almost equal to the monthly results after 125 DIM. Relative to monthly records, daily records overestimated protein percentage before 150 DIM and underestimated protein percentage in the second half of the lactation. The standard deviation for first- and second-parity daily records scored by the monthly and daily system were least similar for fat percentage, but even for this trait the difference was no more than 0.1 percentage points. The standard deviations for complete lactation production were slightly lower for the daily results for all traits but protein production. First-parity heritabilities were higher for lactations computed from daily records for all traits except for protein percentage, but differences were not significant. For daily records, coefficients of determination to predict future milk, fat, and protein lactation production from truncated lactations were greatest and root mean squared errors were least if the mean production from the last 2 weeks before the truncation date was used to estimate future production. Daily first-parity partial lactations for milk, fat, and protein production with <150 DIM predicted future lactation more accurately than corresponding monthly partial lactations. With only 30 DIM, genetic correlations between predicted and actual lactations ranged from 0.73 to 0.79 for milk, fat, and protein production. Real-time daily recording of fat and protein concentration by the daily recording system may be preferable to monthly analysis for herd-management decisions and genetic evaluation. Further study is required to compare the results of individual cows in multiple lactations. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applications of Clocks to Space Navigation & "Planetary GPS"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lichten, Stephen M.

2004-01-01

The ability to fly atomic clocks on GPS satellites has profoundly defined the capabilities and limitations of GPS in near-Earth applications. It is likely that future infrastructure for Lunar and Mars applications will be constrained by financial factors. The development of a low cost, small, high performance space clock -- or ultrahigh performance space clocks -- could revolutionize and drive the entire approach to GPS-like systems at the Moon (or Mars), and possibly even change the future of GPS at Earth. Many system trade studies are required. The performance of future GPS-like tracking systems at the Moon or Mars will depend critically on clock performance, availability of inertial sensors, and constellation coverage. Example: present-day GPS carry 10(exp -13) clocks and require several updates per day. With 10(exp -15) clocks, a constellation at Mars could operate autonomously with updates just once per month. Use of GPS tracking at the Moon should be evaluated in a technical study.

Psychosocial predictors of physical activity and health-related quality of life among adults with physical disabilities: an integrative framework.

PubMed

Kosma, Maria; Ellis, Rebecca; Cardinal, Bradley J; Bauer, Jeremy J; McCubbin, Jeffrey A

2009-04-01

People with disabilities report lower physical activity (PA) and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) levels than people without disabilities. Therefore, it is important to identify factors that motivate individuals with disabilities to be physically active and thus increase their HRQOL. The purpose of the study was to prospectively explore the effects of past theory of planned behavior (TPB) constructs on future (6-month) HRQOL (physical and mental health) through past stages of change (SOC) and future (6-month) PA among adults with physical disabilities. Two models were tested whereby the SOC and PA served as the mediators between the TPB constructs, physical health (PH-Model), and mental health (MH-Model). It was hypothesized that both models would fit the sample data. Participants were 141 adults with physical disabilities (mean age = 46.04, females = 70.9%). The online survey was completed at two different time periods. First, the TPB constructs and SOC were assessed using self-report standardized questionnaires. Six months later, participants completed standardized self-report scales about their PA and HRQOL levels. Using LISREL 8, two path analyses were conducted to examine the two study models (PH-Model and MH-Model). Based on the two path analyses, attitude had the highest effect on SOC followed by perceived behavioral control within both well-fit models. The PH-Model explained more variance in PA (26%) and physical health (55%) than the MH-Model. Health promoters should reinforce both positive intentions and behavioral experiences to increase PA and HRQOL among adults with physical disabilities.

Putaminal dopamine depletion in de novo Parkinson's disease predicts future development of wearing-off.

PubMed

Chung, Su Jin; Lee, Yoonju; Oh, Jungsu S; Kim, Jae Seung; Lee, Phil Hyu; Sohn, Young H

2018-05-10

The present study aimed to investigate whether the level of presynaptic dopamine neuronal loss predicts future development of wearing-off in de novo Parkinson's disease. This retrospective cohort study included a total of 342 non-demented patients with de novo Parkinson's disease who underwent dopamine transporter positron emission tomography scans at their initial evaluation and received dopaminergic medications for 24 months or longer. Onset of wearing-off was determined based on patients' medical records at their outpatient clinic visits every 3-6 months. Predictive power of dopamine transporter activity in striatal subregions and other clinical factors for the development of wearing-off was evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models. During a median follow-up period of 50.2 ± 18.9 months, 69 patients (20.2%) developed wearing-off. Patients with wearing-off exhibited less dopamine transporter activity in the putamen, particularly the anterior and posterior putamens, compared to those without wearing-off. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models revealed that dopamine transporter activities of the anterior (hazard ratio 0.556; p = 0.008) and whole putamens (hazard ratio 0.504; p = 0.025) were significant predictors of development of wearing-off. In addition, younger age at onset of Parkinson's disease, lower body weight, and a motor phenotype of postural instability/gait disturbance were also significant predictors for development of wearing-off. The present results provide in vivo evidence to support the hypothesis that presynaptic dopamine neuronal loss, particularly in the anterior putamen, leads to development of wearing-off in Parkinson's disease. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Follow-up treatment effects of contingency management and motivational interviewing on substance use: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sayegh, Caitlin S; Huey, Stanley J; Zara, Erica J; Jhaveri, Kinnari

2017-06-01

Motivation is an integral factor in substance use treatment and long-term recovery. However, it is unclear what role intrinsic and extrinsic motivation play across different treatment modalities. A meta-analysis (N = 84) was performed to estimate the pooled effect size of Motivational Interviewing (MI; primarily targeting intrinsic motivation) and contingency management (CM; primarily targeting extrinsic motivation) at different follow-up periods. Collapsed across all substance types, CM had a significant effect at 3-month follow-up, only. In contrast, MI had a significant effect at 6-month follow-up, only. CM had small and medium effects on multiple substances at 3-month follow-up (i.e., tobacco, marijuana, stimulants, polysubstances), but not at 6-month follow-up. MI had 1 significant medium effect at 3-month follow-up (i.e., marijuana), but several significant small effects at 6-month follow-up (i.e., alcohol, tobacco, polysubstances). This meta-analysis suggests that both CM and MI promote reductions in a range of substances, even several months after the intervention concludes. Further, these results provide some evidence that extrinsically focused CM may produce medium follow-up effects in the short run, but intrinsically focused MI may produce small but durable follow-up effects. However, this interpretation is complicated by the differences between the MI and CM studies that preclude statistical tests comparing effect sizes, and few studies assessed motivation itself. Future researchers should investigate how motivational dynamics impact lasting outcomes in substance use treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Does early change predict long-term (6 months) improvements in subjects who receive manual therapy for low back pain?

PubMed

Cook, Chad; Petersen, Shannon; Donaldson, Megan; Wilhelm, Mark; Learman, Ken

2017-09-01

Early change is commonly assessed for manual therapy interventions and has been used to determine treatment appropriateness. However, current studies have only explored the relationship of between or within-session changes and short-/medium-term outcomes. The goal of this study was to determine whether pain changes after two weeks of pragmatic manual therapy could predict those participants with chronic low back pain who demonstrate continued improvements at 6-month follow-up. This study was a retrospective observational design. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed using a 33% and a 50% pain change to predict improvement. Those who experienced a ≥33% pain reduction by 2 weeks had 6.98 (95% CI = 1.29, 37.53) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the GRoC and 4.74 (95% CI = 1.31, 17.17) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the ODI (at 6 months). Subjects who reported a ≥50% pain reduction at 2 weeks had 5.98 (95% CI = 1.56, 22.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the GRoC and 3.99 (95% CI = 1.23, 12.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the ODI (at 6 months). Future studies may investigate whether a change in plan of care is beneficial for patients who are not showing early improvement predictive of a good long-term outcome.

New insights for the hydrology of the Rhine based on the new generation climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Beersma, Jules; Buiteveld, Hendrik

2014-05-01

Decision makers base their choices of adaptation strategies on climate change projections and their associated hydrological consequences. New insights of climate change gained under the new generation of climate models belonging to the IPCC 5th assessment report may influence (the planning of) adaption measures and/or future expectations. In this study, hydrological impacts of climate change as projected under the new generation of climate models for the Rhine were assessed. Hereto we downscaled 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs), which were developed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), using an advanced Delta Change Method for the Rhine basin. Changes in mean monthly, maximum and minimum flows at Lobith were derived with the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV of the Rhine. The projected changes were compared to changes that were previously obtained in the trans-boundary project Rheinblick using eight CMIP3 GCMs and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for emission scenario A1B. All eight selected CMIP3 models (scenario A1B) predicted for 2071-2100 a decrease in mean monthly flows between June and October. Similar decreases were found for some of the 31 CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. However, under each RCP, there were also models that projected an increase in mean flows between June and October and on average the decrease was smaller than for the eight CMIP3 models. For 2071-2100, also the mean annual minimum 7-days discharge decreased less in the CMIP5 model simulations than was projected in CMIP3. When assessing the response of mean monthly flows of the CMIP5 simulation with the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and HadGEM2-ES models with respect to initial conditions and RCPs, it was found that natural variability plays a dominant role in the near future (2021-2050), while changes in mean monthly flows are dominated by the radiative forcing in the far future (2071-2100). According to RCP 8.5 model simulations, the change in mean monthly flow from May to November may be half the change in mean monthly flow projected by RCP 4.5. From January to March, RCP 8.5 simulations projected higher changes in mean monthly flows than RCP 4.5 simulations. These new insights based on the CMIP5 simulations imply that for the Rhine, the mean and low flow extremes might not decrease as much in summer as was expected under CMIP3. Stresses on water availability during summer are therefore also less than expected from CMIP3.

Foresight beyond the very next event: four-year-olds can link past and deferred future episodes

PubMed Central

Redshaw, Jonathan; Suddendorf, Thomas

2013-01-01

Previous experiments have demonstrated that by 4 years of age children can use information from a past episode to solve a problem for the very next future episode. However, it remained unclear whether 4-year-olds can similarly use such information to solve a problem for a more removed future episode that is not of immediate concern. In the current study we introduced 4-year-olds to problems in one room before taking them to another room and distracting them for 15 min. The children were then offered a choice of items to place into a bucket that was to be taken back to the first room when a 5-min sand-timer had completed a cycle. Across two conceptually distinct domains, the children placed the item that could solve the deferred future problem above chance level. This result demonstrates that by 48 months many children can recall a problem from the past and act in the present to solve that problem for a deferred future episode. We discuss implications for theories about the nature of episodic foresight. PMID:23847575

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

2018-01-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

Evaluation of motor and cognitive development among infants exposed to HIV.

PubMed

da Silva, Kaitiana Martins; de Sá, Cristina Dos Santos Cardoso; Carvalho, Raquel

2017-02-01

This study of a prospective and cross-sectional nature compared the motor and cognitive development of HIV-exposed and unexposed infants in their first 18months of age. 40 infants exposed to HIV and antiretroviral therapy (Experimental Group - EG) and 40 unexposed infants (Control Group - CG) participated in the study. They were divided into four age groups of 4, 8, 12 and 18months old, with 10 infants from EG and 10 from CG in each group. The infants were evaluated once on motor and cognitive development by the Bayley Scale of Infant and Toddler Development. Performance category grading and comparisons among scaled score, composite score and percentile rank were held. There was significant group effect for scores in motor and cognitive domains showing lower scores for EG regardless of age. In comparison to the CG, the EG presented lower scores for cognitive domain at 8 and 18months. In the performance categories, all infants were classified at or above the average for motor and cognitive development, except of one EG-18month old infant classified as borderline for motor development. Infants exposed to HIV and antiretroviral therapy own adequate cognitive and motor development in the first 18months. However, the lower scores found, particularly on the 8th and 18th month for cognitive development, may indicate future problems, highlighting the need for systematic follow-up of this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Safety Run-in and Randomized Phase II Study of Cilengitide Combined with Chemoradiation for Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma (NABTT 0306)

PubMed Central

Nabors, L. Burt; Mikkelsen, Tom; Hegi, Monika E.; Ye, Xiaubu; Batchelor, Tracy; Lesser, Glenn; Peereboom, David; Rosenfeld, Myrna R.; Olsen, Jeff; Brem, Steve; Fisher, Joy D.; Grossman, Stuart A.

2012-01-01

Background Cilengitide is a selective integrin inhibitor that is well tolerated and has demonstrated biological activity in patients with recurrent malignant glioma. The primary objectives of this randomized phase II trial were to determine safety and efficacy of cilengitide when combined with radiation and temozolomide for newly diagnosed glioblastoma (GBM) and to select a dose for comparative clinical testing. Methods A total of 112 patients were accrued. Eighteen patients received standard RT+TMZ with cilengitide in a safety run-in phase followed by a randomized phase II with ninety-four patients assigned to either 500 or 2000 mg dose groups. The trial was designed to estimate overall survival benefit when compared with the NABTT internal historical control or the published EORTC 26981 data. Results Cilengitide at all doses studied was well tolerated with radiation and temozolomide. The median survival was 19.7 months for all patients, 17.4 months for those receiving the 500 mg dose, 20.8 months for those receiving the 2000mg dose, 30 months for patients with methylated MGMT promoters and 17.4 months for unmethylated patients. For patients ages 70 and younger, the median survival and survival at 24 months was superior to that observed in the EORTC trial (20.7 months vs 14.6 months and 41% vs 27% (p=0.008) respectively). Conclusions Cilengitide is well tolerated when combined with standard chemoradiation and may improve survival for patients newly diagnosed with GBM regardless of MGMT status. From an efficacy and safety standpoint, future trials of this agent in this population should utilize the 2000 mg dose. PMID:22517399

Initiating Maintenance Dialysis Before Living Kidney Donor Transplantation When a Donor Candidate Evaluation Is Well Underway.

PubMed

Habbous, Steven; McArthur, Eric; Dixon, Stephanie N; McKenzie, Susan; Garcia-Ochoa, Carlos; Lam, Ngan N; Lentine, Krista L; Dipchand, Christine; Litchfield, Kenneth; Begen, Mehmet A; Sarma, Sisira; Garg, Amit X

2018-07-01

Preemptive kidney transplants result in better outcomes and patient experiences than transplantation after dialysis onset. It is unknown how often a person initiates maintenance dialysis before living kidney donor transplantation when their donor candidate evaluation is well underway. Using healthcare databases, we retrospectively studied 478 living donor kidney transplants from 2004 to 2014 across 5 transplant centers in Ontario, Canada, where the recipients were not receiving dialysis when their donor's evaluation was well underway. We also explored some factors associated with a higher likelihood of dialysis initiation before transplant. A total of 167 (35%) of 478 persons with kidney failure initiated dialysis in a median of 9.7 months (25th-75th percentile, 5.4-18.7 months) after their donor candidate began their evaluation and received dialysis for a median of 8.8 months (3.6-16.9 months) before kidney transplantation. The total cohort's dialysis cost was CAD $8.1 million, and 44 (26%) of 167 recipients initiated their dialysis urgently in hospital. The median total donor evaluation time (time from evaluation start to donation) was 10.6 months (6.4-21.6 months) for preemptive transplants and 22.4 months (13.1-38.7 months) for donors whose recipients started dialysis before transplant. Recipients were more likely to start dialysis if their donor was female, nonwhite, lived in a lower-income neighborhood, and if the transplant center received the recipient referral later. One third of persons initiated dialysis before receiving their living kidney donor transplant, despite their donor's evaluation being well underway. Future studies should consider whether some of these events can be prevented by addressing inappropriate delays to improve patient outcomes and reduce healthcare costs.

Timing of prenatal maternal exposure to severe life events and adverse pregnancy outcomes: A population study of 2.6 million pregnancies

PubMed Central

Class, Quetzal A.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Långström, Niklas; D'Onofrio, Brian M.

2011-01-01

Objective To identify the impact of timing of prenatal stress exposure on offspring risk for shortened gestational age (GA), preterm birth (PTB), low birth weight (LBW), and small for gestational age (SGA) using a population-based sample. Methods Swedish longitudinal population registries were linked to study all individuals born in Sweden 1973–2004. Prenatal maternal stress exposure was defined as death of the father of the child or first degree relative of the mother. Using linear and logistic regression, timing of stress exposure was examined across pregnancy, by month, and by novel periods created based on month of stress exposure findings. Results A total of 2,618,777 live-born, singleton infants without congenital anomalies were included; 32,286 exposed to prenatal maternal stress. Examining associations between stress exposure and outcome by the month revealed that risk increases mid-gestation, particularly following months 5 and 6. Combining months 1–4, 5 and 6, and 7–9 as potential periods of differing vulnerability, it was found that stress during period 2 (months 5 and 6) was associated with the greatest risk for shortened GA (−0.52 days, SE=0.15, p=0.0006), PTB (OR=1.24, 99% CI=1.08–1.42), LBW (OR=1.38, 99% CI=1.19–1.61), and SGA (OR=1.25, 99% CI=1.05–1.49). Conclusions Risk for shortened GA, PTB, LBW, and SGA are greater following stress exposure during the 5th and/or 6th month of pregnancy. It may be beneficial to refine future analyses to these months. Possible mechanisms include alterations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and associated stress-responsive molecular regulators. PMID:21321257

Promoting healthier children's meals at quick-service and full-service restaurants: Results from a pilot and feasibility study.

PubMed

Lopez, Nanette V; Folta, Sara C; Glenn, Meaghan E; Lynskey, Vanessa M; Patel, Anjali A; Anzman-Frasca, Stephanie

2017-10-01

High-calorie restaurant foods contribute to childhood overweight. Increased consumer demand for healthier kids' meals may motivate the restaurant industry to provide additional healthy options. This study pilot-tested a combination of four strategies (toy incentive, placemats, server prompts, signage) designed to increase demand for healthier kids' meals, which were defined as those eligible for the National Restaurant Association's Kids LiveWell program. Relative sales of healthier kids' meals were examined before (n = 3473 total kids' meal orders) and during Month 1 (n = 3546 total kids' meal orders) and Month 2 of implementation (n = 3645 total kids' meal orders) of an 8-week intervention in two locations each of a quick-service (QSR) and full-service (FSR) restaurant chain. Convenience samples of children (n = 27) and their parents (n = 28) were surveyed regarding parent and child perceptions of intervention components. Findings regarding the effectiveness and feasibility of the intervention were mixed. At the FSRs, the relative percentage of monthly sales from healthier kids' meals increased from 5.0% of kids' meal orders at baseline to 8.3% during Month 1, ending at 6.4% during Month 2. At the QSRs, the relative percentage of monthly sales from healthier kids' entrees decreased from 27.5% at baseline to 25.2% during Month 1, ending at 25.9% during Month 2. Implementation quality tracking showed that consistent implementation of intervention components was a challenge; parent- and child-reported awareness of intervention components supported this finding. Future directions are discussed, aiming to build upon these findings and maximize the feasibility, effectiveness, and sustainability of efforts to promote healthier eating in restaurants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Active and passive problem solving: moderating role in the relation between depressive symptoms and future suicidal ideation varies by suicide attempt history.

PubMed

Quiñones, Victoria; Jurska, Justyna; Fener, Eileen; Miranda, Regina

2015-04-01

Research suggests that being unable to generate solutions to problems in times of distress may contribute to suicidal thoughts and behavior, and that depression is associated with problem-solving deficits. This study examined active and passive problem solving as moderators of the association between depressive symptoms and future suicidal ideation among suicide attempters and nonattempters. Young adults (n = 324, 73% female, mean age = 19, standard deviation = 2.22) with (n = 78) and without (n = 246) a suicide attempt history completed a problem-solving task, self-report measures of hopelessness, depression, and suicidal ideation at baseline, and a self-report measure of suicidal ideation at 6-month follow-up. Passive problem solving was higher among suicide attempters but did not moderate the association between depressive symptoms and future suicidal ideation. Among attempters, active problem solving buffered against depressive symptoms in predicting future suicidal ideation. Suicide prevention should foster active problem solving, especially among suicide attempters. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Active and Passive Problem Solving: Moderating Role in the Relation between Depressive Symptoms and Future Suicidal Ideation Varies by Suicide Attempt History

PubMed Central

Quiñones, Victoria; Jurska, Justyna; Fener, Eileen; Miranda, Regina

2016-01-01

Objective Research suggests that being unable to generate solutions to problems in times of distress may contribute to suicidal thoughts and behavior, and that depression is associated with problem solving deficits. This study examined active and passive problem solving as moderators of the association between depressive symptoms and future suicidal ideation (SI) among suicide attempters and non-attempters. Method Young adults (n = 324, 73% female, Mage = 19, SD = 2.22) with (n = 78) and without (n = 246) a suicide attempt history completed a problem-solving task, self-report measures of hopelessness, depression, and SI at baseline, and also completed a self-report measure of SI at 6-month follow-up. Results Passive problem solving was higher among suicide attempters but did not moderate the association between depressive symptoms and future SI. Among attempters, active problem solving buffered against depressive symptoms in predicting future SI. Conclusions Suicide prevention should foster active problem solving, especially among suicide attempters. PMID:25760651

A test of the functional avoidance hypothesis in the development of overgeneral autobiographical memory.

PubMed

Hallford, D J; Austin, D W; Raes, F; Takano, K

2018-04-18

Overgeneral memory (OGM) refers to the failure to recall memories of specific personally experienced events, which occurs in various psychiatric disorders. One pathway through which OGM is theorized to develop is the avoidance of thinking of negative experiences, whereby cumulative avoidance may maladaptively generalize to autobiographical memory (AM) more broadly. We tested this, predicting that negative experiences would interact with avoidance to predict AM specificity. In Study 1 (N = 281), negative life events (over six months) and daily hassles (over one month) were not related to AM specificity, nor was avoidance, and no interaction was found. In Study 2 (N = 318), we revised our measurements and used an increased timeframe of 12 months for both negative life events and daily hassles. The results showed no interaction effect for negative life events, but they did show an interaction for daily hassles, whereby increased hassles and higher avoidance of thinking about them were associated with reduced AM specificity, independent of general cognitive avoidance and depressive symptoms. No evidence was found that cognitive avoidance or AM specificity moderated the effect of negative experiences on depressive symptoms. Our findings suggest that life events over 6-12 months are not associated with AM specificity, but chronic daily hassles over 12 months predict reduced AM specificity when individuals avoid thinking about them. The findings provide evidence for the functional-avoidance hypothesis of OGM development and future directions for longitudinal studies.

Modeling The Hydrology And Water Allocation Under Climate Change In Rural River Basins: A Case Study From Nam Ngum River Basin, Laos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasekera, D. L.; Kaluarachchi, J.; Kim, U.

2011-12-01

Rural river basins with sufficient water availability to maintain economic livelihoods can be affected with seasonal fluctuations of precipitation and sometimes by droughts. In addition, climate change impacts can also alter future water availability. General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate conditions but such estimates are often characterized by bias and coarse scale resolution making it necessary to downscale the outputs for use in regional hydrologic models. This study develops a methodology to downscale and project future monthly precipitation in moderate scale basins where data are limited. A stochastic framework for single-site and multi-site generation of weekly rainfall is developed while preserving the historical temporal and spatial correlation structures. The spatial correlations in the simulated occurrences and the amounts are induced using spatially correlated yet serially independent random numbers. This method is applied to generate weekly precipitation data for a 100-year period in the Nam Ngum River Basin (NNRB) that has a land area of 16,780 km2 located in Lao P.D.R. This method is developed and applied using precipitation data from 1961 to 2000 for 10 selected weather stations that represents the basin rainfall characteristics. Bias-correction method, based on fitted theoretical probability distribution transformations, is applied to improve monthly mean frequency, intensity and the amount of raw GCM precipitation predicted at a given weather station using CGCM3.1 and ECHAM5 for SRES A2 emission scenario. Bias-correction procedure adjusts GCM precipitation to approximate the long-term frequency and the intensity distribution observed at a given weather station. Index of agreement and mean absolute error are determined to assess the overall ability and performance of the bias correction method. The generated precipitation series aggregated at monthly time step was perturbed by the change factors estimated using the corrected GCM and baseline scenarios for future time periods of 2011-2050 and 2051-2090. A network based hydrologic and water resources model, WEAP, was used to simulate the current water allocation and management practices to identify the impacts of climate change in the 20th century. The results of this work are used to identify the multiple challenges faced by stakeholders and planners in water allocation for competing demands in the presence of climate change impacts.

Training opioid addiction treatment providers to adopt contingency management: A prospective pilot trial of a comprehensive implementation science approach.

PubMed

Becker, Sara J; Squires, Daniel D; Strong, David R; Barnett, Nancy P; Monti, Peter M; Petry, Nancy M

2016-01-01

Few prospective studies have evaluated theory-driven approaches to the implementation of evidence-based opioid treatment. This study compared the effectiveness of an implementation model (Science to Service Laboratory; SSL) to training as usual (TAU) in promoting the adoption of contingency management across a multisite opioid addiction treatment program. We also examined whether the SSL affected putative mediators of contingency management adoption (perceived innovation characteristics and organizational readiness to change). Sixty treatment providers (39 SSL, 21 TAU) from 15 geographically diverse satellite clinics (7 SSL, 8 TAU) participated in the 12-month study. Both conditions received didactic contingency management training and those in the predetermined experimental region received 9 months of SSL-enhanced training. Contingency management adoption was monitored biweekly, whereas putative mediators were measured at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months. Relative to providers in the TAU region, treatment providers in the SSL region had comparable likelihood of contingency management adoption in the first 20 weeks of the study, and then significantly higher likelihood of adoption (odds ratios = 2.4-13.5) for the remainder of the study. SSL providers also reported higher levels of one perceived innovation characteristic (Observability) and one aspect of organizational readiness to change (Adequacy of Training Resources), although there was no evidence that the SSL affected these putative mediators over time. Results of this study indicate that a fully powered randomized trial of the SSL is warranted. Considerations for a future evaluation are discussed.

Early coordinated rehabilitation in acute phase after hip fracture - a model for increased patient participation.

PubMed

Asplin, Gillian; Carlsson, Gunnel; Zidén, Lena; Kjellby-Wendt, Gunilla

2017-10-17

Studies have shown that patients with hip fracture treated in a Comprehensive Geriatric Care (CGC) unit report better results in comparison to orthopaedic care. Furthermore, involving patients in their healthcare by encouraging patient participation can result in better quality of care and improved outcomes. To our knowledge no study has been performed comparing rehabilitation programmes within a CGC unit during the acute phase after hip fracture with focus on improving patients' perceived participation and subsequent effect on patients' function. A prospective, controlled, intervention performed in a CGC unit and compared with standard care. A total of 126 patients with hip fracture were recruited who were prior to fracture; community dwelling, mobile indoors and independent in personal care. Intervention Group (IG): 63 patients, mean age 82.0 years and Control Group (CG): 63 patients mean age 80.5 years. coordinated rehabilitation programme with early onset of patient participation and intensified occupational therapy and physiotherapy after hip fracture surgery. The primary outcome measure was self-reported patient participation at discharge. Secondary outcome measures were: TLS-BasicADL; Bergs Balance Scale (BBS); Falls Efficacy Scale FES(S); Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and Timed Up and Go (TUG) at discharge and 1 month and ADL staircase for instrumental ADL at 1 month. At discharge a statistically significant greater number of patients in the IG reported higher levels of participation (p < 0.05) and independence in lower body hygiene (p < 0.05) and dressing (p < 0.001). There were however no statistically significant differences at discharge and 1 month between groups in functional balance and confidence, performance measures or risk for falls. This model of OT and PT coordinated inpatient rehabilitation had a positive effect on patients' perceived participation in their rehabilitation and ADL at discharge but did not appear to affect level of recovery or risk for future falls at 1 month. A large proportion of patients remained at risk for future falls at 1 month in both groups highlighting the need for continued rehabilitation after discharge. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03301584 (Retrospectively registered: 4 th October 2017).

Glutamate/glutamine concentrations in the dorsal anterior cingulate vary with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder symptoms.

PubMed

Harnett, Nathaniel G; Wood, Kimberly H; Ference, Edward W; Reid, Meredith A; Lahti, Adrienne C; Knight, Amy J; Knight, David C

2017-08-01

Trauma and stress-related disorders (e.g., Acute Stress Disorder; ASD and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder; PTSD) that develop following a traumatic event are characterized by cognitive-affective dysfunction. The cognitive and affective functions disrupted by stress disorder are mediated, in part, by glutamatergic neural systems. However, it remains unclear whether neural glutamate concentrations, measured acutely following trauma, vary with ASD symptoms and/or future PTSD symptom expression. Therefore, the current study utilized proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 1 H-MRS) to investigate glutamate/glutamine (Glx) concentrations within the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) of recently (i.e., within one month) traumatized individuals and non-traumatized controls. Although Glx concentrations within dorsal ACC did not differ between recently traumatized and non-traumatized control groups, a positive linear relationship was observed between Glx concentrations and current stress disorder symptoms in traumatized individuals. Further, Glx concentrations showed a positive linear relationship with future stress disorder symptoms (i.e., assessed 3 months post-trauma). The present results suggest glutamate concentrations may play a role in both acute and future post-traumatic stress symptoms following a traumatic experience. The current results expand our understanding of the neurobiology of stress disorder and suggest glutamate within the dorsal ACC plays an important role in cognitive-affective dysfunction following a traumatic experience. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decaying Relevance of Clinical Data Towards Future Decisions in Data-Driven Inpatient Clinical Order Sets

PubMed Central

Chen, Jonathan H; Alagappan, Muthuraman; Goldstein, Mary K; Asch, Steven M; Altman, Russ B

2017-01-01

Objective Determine how varying longitudinal historical training data can impact prediction of future clinical decisions. Estimate the “decay rate” of clinical data source relevance. Materials and Methods We trained a clinical order recommender system, analogous to Netflix or Amazon’s “Customers who bought A also bought B…” product recommenders, based on a tertiary academic hospital’s structured electronic health record data. We used this system to predict future (2013) admission orders based on different subsets of historical training data (2009 through 2012), relative to existing human-authored order sets. Results Predicting future (2013) inpatient orders is more accurate with models trained on just one month of recent (2012) data than with 12 months of older (2009) data (ROC AUC 0.91 vs. 0.88, precision 27% vs. 22%, recall 52% vs. 43%, all P<10−10). Algorithmically learned models from even the older (2009) data was still more effective than existing human-authored order sets (ROC AUC 0.81, precision 16% recall 35%). Training with more longitudinal data (2009–2012) was no better than using only the most recent (2012) data, unless applying a decaying weighting scheme with a “half-life” of data relevance about 4 months. Discussion Clinical practice patterns (automatically) learned from electronic health record data can vary substantially across years. Gold standards for clinical decision support are elusive moving targets, reinforcing the need for automated methods that can adapt to evolving information. Conclusions and Relevance Prioritizing small amounts of recent data is more effective than using larger amounts of older data towards future clinical predictions. PMID:28495350

Pregravid body mass index, psychological factors during pregnancy, and breastfeeding duration: is there a link?

PubMed Central

Mehta, Ushma J.; Siega-Riz, Anna Maria; Herring, Amy H.; Adair, Linda S.; Bentley, Margaret E.

2011-01-01

Breastfeeding rates in the U.S. are low and one possible reason may be the high prevalence of overweight/obesity among women of childbearing age. This analysis examined the association between pregravid body mass index (BMI) and breastfeeding duration and explored whether depressive symptoms, perceived stress and anxiety during pregnancy mediated this relationship. Participants (n = 550) in the Pregnancy, Infection, and Nutrition Postpartum Study were recruited through prenatal clinics prior to 20 weeks gestation and followed to 12 months postpartum. Duration of any breastfeeding was categorized as: none, less than 4 months, 4 to 6 months, 7 to 12 months, and more than 12 months (referent). Exclusive breastfeeding was categorized as less than 1 month, 1 to less than 4 months, and 4 months or more (referent). Being overweight/obese before pregnancy (35.7% of 550) was inversely associated with the durations of any and exclusive breastfeeding. Women who entered pregnancy overweight or obese were more likely to not initiate breastfeeding [RRR =5.39 (95% CI: 2.41, 12.04)] and to breastfeed less than four months [RRR = 2.38 (1.33, 4.27)] compared to women of normal weight status. Among women who initiated breastfeeding, being overweight or obese versus normal weight was related to exclusively breastfeeding less than 1 month [RRR = 2.09 (1.24, 3.51)]. We did not find evidence to support mediation by depressive symptoms, perceived stress or anxiety during pregnancy. Future research needs to explore the reasons behind the association between overweight/obesity and breastfeeding duration. PMID:21951308

Future Money-Related Worries among Adolescents after Divorce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koerner, Susan Silverberg; Korn, Marcella; Dennison, Renee Peltz; Witthoft, Sara

2011-01-01

The present research examined adolescents' views of their future with respect to money and financial well-being via an open-ended question and inductive content analysis. The participants were adolescents (N = 255) whose parents were divorced between 5 and 24 months at the time of data collection. The most common worries pertained to (a) being…

Arkansas out Front with Every Student's Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Building State Capacity and Productivity Center, 2016

2016-01-01

The Arkansas Department of Education (ADE) did not wait for Congress to pass the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA). Beginning months before the passage of the landmark education bill, ADE began an intensive examination of Arkansas's education future and ADE's role relative to districts and communities in shaping that future. The ADE strategic…

Cross-cultural comparisons of delay discounting of gain and loss.

PubMed

Ishii, Keiko; Gang, Lili; Takahashi, Taiki

2016-11-01

People generally tend to discount future outcomes in favor of smaller but immediate gains (i.e., delay discounting). The present research examined cultural similarities and differences in delay discounting of gain and loss between Chinese and Japanese, based on a q-exponential model of intertemporal choice. Using a hypothetical situation, we asked 65 Japanese participants and 51 Chinese participants to choose between receiving (or paying) a different amount of money immediately or with a specified delay (1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, and 25 years). For each delay, participants completed a series of 40 binary choices for gain or loss. Regardless of cultures, the q-exponential model was the optimal model. Both impulsivity and time-inconsistency were higher for future gains than for future losses. In addition to the cultural similarities, Chinese participants discounted future gains and losses more steeply than did Japanese. In contrast, Japanese participants were more time-inconsistent in delay discounting than were Chinese, suggesting that the reduction in their subjective value depended relatively on delay.

Characteristics of intermittent smokers and their association with quit intentions in a sample of heavy-drinking HIV-infected men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Cioe, Patricia A; Gamarel, Kristi E; Pantalone, David W; Monti, Peter M; Mayer, Kenneth H; Kahler, Christopher W

2017-06-01

Intermittent smokers (ITS) have increased health risks compared with non-smokers (NS). Cigarette smoking remains prevalent among men who have sex with men (MSM) and persons living with HIV (PLWH), yet most studies in PLWH do not discriminate between daily smokers (DS) and ITS. In this study, the characteristics and quit intentions of ITS and DS are compared in a sample of heavy-drinking HIV-infected MSM. Of the 185 participants enrolled, 49.2% reported having smoked cigarettes in the past month; among those, 50.5% were DS, and 49.5% were ITS. Compared with DS, ITS were significantly more likely to be White and to have a college degree or higher. DS reported significantly higher average number of drinks per week compared with both ITS and NS. Compared with DS, ITS were significantly more likely to report future quit intentions (i.e., within 6 months or more) compared to no intentions at all; DS were more likely to report immediate quit intentions (i.e., within 30 days) compared to future quit intentions. Among heavy-drinking MSM living with HIV, intermittent smoking was associated with being White, college educated, and having future quit intentions. Considering that smoking in ITS may be less driven by nicotine dependence, tailored approaches to smoking cessation may be needed. Specifically, it may be important for interventions for ITS to address social and situational cues to smoke, including the influence of heavy alcohol use on smoking behaviors, and to provide information regarding the adverse health effects of even low-level smoking.

The First Intervention Study in Elder Self-Neglect: A Randomized Clinical Trial to Improve Vitamin D Levels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burnett, Jason; Hochschild, Ann; Smith, Scott M.; Diamond, Pam; Stotts, Angela; Dyer, Carmel

2011-01-01

Despite high mortality rates, elder self-neglect is characterized by refusal of medical and social interventions. To date there have been no tested clinical interventions in elders who self-neglect. Previous research from the TEAM Institute has shown significantly low vitamin D levels in this population. This study aimed to determine the feasibility of a clinical intervention. Replacement of vitamin D was chosen because of its ease of administration and favorable safety profile. Methods: A randomized clinical trial using directly observed therapy of vitamin D was conducted using 50 elders, >65 years of age, with Adult Protective Services (APS) validated self-neglect. A staggered intervention with waiting controls was used to maximize statistical power. One-third (n=17) of the group was administered 50,000 IU vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) monthly and the remainder (n=33) were administered 400 IU monthly. Serum 25-OH vitamin D was assessed at baseline and 5-months. Results: 69% agreed to participate in the study and of those n=40 (80%) remained at 5-months. At baseline, 12% (n=7) were deficient in vitamin D (<30nmol/L) and approximately 38% (n=22) had inadequate vitamin D levels (<50nmol/L). The baseline 25-OH vitamin D level was 59 nmol/L +25 (mean SD), and increased significantly to 72nmol/L +21 nmol/L at 5-months. Conclusion: These data are the first to provide evidence that clinical interventions are feasible in elders who self-neglect. The increase in vitamin D levels confirmed that the study personnel were able to successfully intervene community-dwelling elders with self-neglect. This study sets the precedent for future intervention and prevention studies

Hyperinsulinemia and hyperfiltration in renal transplantation.

PubMed

Porrini, Esteban; Bayes, Beatriz; Diaz, Juan M; Ibernon, Meritxell; Benitez, Rocio; Domínguez, Rosa; Moreno, Juan Manuel; Delgado, Patricia; Lauzurica, Ricardo; Silva, Irene; Moreso, Francisco; Lampreabe, Ildefonso; Arias, Manuel; Osuna, Antonio; Torres, Armando

2009-01-27

Insulin-resistance hyperinsulinemia is a novel risk factor for renal disease in the general population. Glomerular hyperfiltration has been proposed as an early consequence of hyperinsulinemia. In this multicenter cohort study, we analyzed 202 patients without diabetes before or after renal transplantation during the first posttransplant year. Insulin was measured at 3 and 12 months. The majority of patients (91%) were on calcineurin inhibitors. Patients were classified as with persistent normo or hyperinsulinemia when situated below or above the median value of insulin (3 months: 9 muU/mL; 12 months: 8.74 muU/mL) at both periods. The 3 to 12 months percent change in calculated creatinine clearance (3-12 months DeltaCrCL) was calculated. Patients with persistent hyperinsulinemia showed a higher increase in 3 to 12 months DeltaCrCL compared with those with persistent normoinsulinemia (12% [-20/40] vs. -0.03% [-12/18], P=0.035). We performed a multivariate linear regression analysis with the 3 to 12 months DeltaCrCL as the dependent variable and different factors that may induce hyperfiltration, including persistent hyperinsulinemia, as covariates. Persistent hyperinsulinemia was a risk factor for increased CrCL (beta 0.09, 95% CI 0.07/0.12, P=0.035). In nondiabetic recipients during the first posttransplant year, hyperinsulinemia induced increments in CrCL. As this may herald future renal dysfunction, hyperinsulinemia should not be ignored as a potential target in this population.

Six-Month Changes in Spirituality and Religiousness in Alcoholics Predict Drinking Outcomes at Nine Months*

PubMed Central

Robinson, Elizabeth A. R.; Krentzman, Amy R.; Webb, Jon R.; Brower, Kirk J.

2011-01-01

Objective: Although spiritual change is hypothesized to contribute to recovery from alcohol dependence, few studies have used prospective data to investigate this hypothesis. Prior studies have also been limited to treatment-seeking and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) samples. This study included alcohol-dependent individuals, both in treatment and not, to investigate the effect of spiritual and religious (SR) change on subsequent drinking outcomes, independent of AA involvement. Method: Alcoholics (N = 364) were recruited for a panel study from two abstinence-based treatment centers, a moderation drinking program, and untreated individuals from the local community. Quantitative measures of SR change between baseline and 6 months were used to predict 9-month drinking outcomes, controlling for baseline drinking and AA involvement. Results: Significant 6-month changes in 8 of 12 SR measures were found, which included private SR practices, beliefs, daily spiritual experiences, three measures of forgiveness, negative religious coping, and purpose in life. Increases in private SR practices and forgiveness of self were the strongest predictors of improvements in drinking outcomes. Changes in daily spiritual experiences, purpose in life, a general measure of forgiveness, and negative religious coping also predicted favorable drinking outcomes. Conclusions: SR change predicted good drinking outcomes in alcoholics, even when controlling for AA involvement. SR variables, broadly defined, deserve attention in fostering change even among those who do not affiliate with AA or religious institutions. Last, future research should include SR variables, particularly various types of forgiveness, given the strong effects found for forgiveness of self. PMID:21683048

Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resourcesmore » in the form of total runoff.« less

Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2017-09-11

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resourcesmore » in the form of total runoff.« less

Potential relationships between the river discharge and the precipitation in the Jinsha River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gaoxu; Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; He, Qifang; Bai, Yiran; Zhang, Ruoyu

2018-02-01

The relationships between the river discharge and the precipitation in the Jinsha River basin are discussed in this study. In addition, the future precipitation trend from 2011-2050 and its potential influence on the river discharge are analysed by applying the CCLM-modelled precipitation. According to the observed river discharge and precipitation, the annual river discharge at the two main hydrological stations displays good correlations with the annual precipitation in the Jinsha River basin. The predicted future precipitation tends to change similarly as the change that occurred during the observation period, whereas the monthly distributions over a year could be more uneven, which is unfavourable for water resources management.

Forecast models for suicide: Time-series analysis with data from Italy.

PubMed

Preti, Antonio; Lentini, Gianluca

2016-01-01

The prediction of suicidal behavior is a complex task. To fine-tune targeted preventative interventions, predictive analytics (i.e. forecasting future risk of suicide) is more important than exploratory data analysis (pattern recognition, e.g. detection of seasonality in suicide time series). This study sets out to investigate the accuracy of forecasting models of suicide for men and women. A total of 101 499 male suicides and of 39 681 female suicides - occurred in Italy from 1969 to 2003 - were investigated. In order to apply the forecasting model and test its accuracy, the time series were split into a training set (1969 to 1996; 336 months) and a test set (1997 to 2003; 84 months). The main outcome was the accuracy of forecasting models on the monthly number of suicides. These measures of accuracy were used: mean absolute error; root mean squared error; mean absolute percentage error; mean absolute scaled error. In both male and female suicides a change in the trend pattern was observed, with an increase from 1969 onwards to reach a maximum around 1990 and decrease thereafter. The variances attributable to the seasonal and trend components were, respectively, 24% and 64% in male suicides, and 28% and 41% in female ones. Both annual and seasonal historical trends of monthly data contributed to forecast future trends of suicide with a margin of error around 10%. The finding is clearer in male than in female time series of suicide. The main conclusion of the study is that models taking seasonality into account seem to be able to derive information on deviation from the mean when this occurs as a zenith, but they fail to reproduce it when it occurs as a nadir. Preventative efforts should concentrate on the factors that influence the occurrence of increases above the main trend in both seasonal and cyclic patterns of suicides.

The future of irrigated agriculture under environmental flow requirements restrictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, Amandine; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Kabat, Pavel; Obersteiner, Michael; Ludwig, Fulco

2016-04-01

Water is not an infinite resource and demand from irrigation, household and industry is constantly increasing. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while others might consider improving their trade policy to avoid food shortage.

A normal colposcopy examination fails to provide psychological reassurance for women who have had low-grade abnormal cervical cytology.

PubMed

Cotton, S C; Sharp, L; Little, J; Gray, N M; Walker, L G; Whynes, D K; Cruickshank, M E

2015-06-01

Worldwide, each year, large numbers of women are referred for colposcopy following low-grade abnormal cervical cytology. Many have no visible abnormality on examination. The risk of cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 (CIN2/3) in these women is low. It is unknown whether, for women, a normal colposcopy resolves the anxiety which often follows the receipt of an abnormal cytology result. We investigated the prevalence of adverse psychological outcomes over 30 months following a normal colposcopy. This cohort study was nested within the UK TOMBOLA randomized controlled trial. Women aged 20-59 years, with recent low-grade cytology, who had a satisfactory colposcopy examination and normal transformation zone, completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and Process Outcome Specific Measure (POSM) at recruitment and during follow-up (12, 18, 24 and 30 months post-recruitment). Outcomes included percentages reporting significant anxiety (HADS anxiety subscale score ≥11), significant depression (HADS depression subscale score ≥8) or worries about the result of the next cytology test, cervical cancer, having sex, future fertility and general health at each time point (point prevalence) and during follow-up (cumulative prevalence). The study included 727 women. All psychological measures (except depression) had high prevalence at recruitment, falling substantially by 12 months. During follow-up, the cumulative prevalence of significant anxiety was 27% and significant depression was 21%. The most frequently reported worry was that the next cytology test would be abnormal (cumulative prevalence of 71%; point prevalence of ≥50% at 12 and 18 months). The cumulative prevalence values of worries about cervical cancer, having sex and future fertility were 33%, 20% and 16%, respectively. For some women who have low-grade cytology, a normal colposcopy does not appear to provide psychological reassurance. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

3 CFR 8790 - Proclamation 8790 of April 2, 2012. National Cancer Control Month, 2012

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... and grandparents, children and cherished friends; the disease touches almost all of us and casts a... promising technologies and treatments. During National Cancer Control Month, we pay tribute to the men, women, and children we have lost to cancer, and we look ahead to a future in which more Americans have...

Risk of Future Suicide Attempts in Adolescent Psychiatric Inpatients at 18-Month Follow-Up.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brinkman-Sull, David C.; Overholser, James C.; Silverman, Eden

2000-01-01

Investigates potential predictors of suicidal behavior in adolescent psychiatric patients (N=60) during an 18-month follow-up period. Follow-up suicidality was most strongly predicted by high intake levels of hopelessness, and an increase in or persistent problems with depression. Proposes a model in which the impact of family functioning on…

The Mediating Role of Emotional Control in the Link between Parenting and Young Children's Physical Aggression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Sara E.; Menna, Rosanne; McAndrew, Annamaria J.

2017-01-01

Aggression in early childhood has been found to predict future psychopathology, academic problems, and delinquency. In a sample of 136 mother-child pairs (M[subscript age] = 4 years, 11 months, SD = 11 months, 58% boys) associations among mothers' responding with distress to children's negative emotions, children's emotional control, and…

Spinal Cord Injury-Induced Dysautonomia via Plasticity in Paravertebral Sympathetic Postganglionic

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

for future study Data analysis and publications Major Task 3: Data analysis and publications months % completion/ Completion dates Subtask 1...Data analysis 6-36 25% Subtask 2: Manuscript writing and submission 24-36 10% Milestone(s) Achieved: Dissemination of scientific results. b. What...ganglia by computational simulation and dynamic-clamp analysis . Journal of neurophysiology 92, 2659- 2671, doi:10.1152/jn.00470.2004 (2004). 14 Llewellyn

Could a brief assessment of negative emotions and self-esteem identify adolescents at current and future risk of self-harm in the community? A prospective cohort analysis.

PubMed

Phillips, Rhiannon; Spears, Melissa R; Montgomery, Alan A; Millings, Abigail; Sayal, Kapil; Stallard, Paul

2013-06-22

Self-harm is common in adolescents, but it is often unreported and undetected. Available screening tools typically ask directly about self-harm and suicidal ideation. Although in an ideal world, direct enquiry and open discussion around self-harm would be advocated, non-psychiatric professionals in community settings are often reluctant to ask about this directly and disclosure can be met with feeling of intense anxiety. Training non-specialist staff to directly ask about self-harm has limited effects suggesting that alternative approaches are required. This study investigated whether a targeted analysis of negative emotions and self-esteem could identify young adolescents at risk of self-harm in community settings. Data were collected as part of a clinical trial from young people in school years 8-11 (aged 12-16) at eight UK secondary schools (N = 4503 at baseline, N = 3263 in prospective analysis). The Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire, Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale, Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, personal failure (Children's Automatic Thoughts Scale), and two items on self-harm were completed at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Following a process of Principal Components Analysis, item reduction, and logistic regression analysis, three internally reliable factors were identified from the original measures that were independently associated with current and future self-harm; personal failure (3 items), physical symptoms of depression/anxiety (6 items), positive self-esteem (5 items). The summed score of these 14 items had good accuracy in identifying current self-harm (AUC 0.87 girls, 0.81 boys) and at six months for girls (0.81), and fair accuracy at six months for boys (AUC 0.74) and 12 months for girls (AUC 0.77). A brief and targeted assessment of negative emotions and self-esteem, focusing on factors that are strongly associated with current and future self-harm, could potentially be used to help identify adolescents who are at risk in community settings. Further research should assess the psychometric properties of the items identified and test this approach in more diverse community contexts.

A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial of a Commercial Diet and Exercise Weight Loss Program in Minority Breast Cancer Survivors

PubMed Central

Greenlee, Heather A.; Crew, Katherine D.; Mata, Jennie M.; McKinley, Paula S.; Rundle, Andrew G.; Zhang, Wenfei; Liao, Yuyan; Tsai, Wei Y.; Hershman, Dawn L.

2015-01-01

Objective Obesity is associated with poorer breast cancer outcomes and losing weight postdiagnosis may improve survival. As Hispanic and black women have poorer breast cancer prognosis than non-Hispanic whites diagnosed at similar age and stage, and have higher rates of obesity, effective weight loss strategies are needed. We piloted a randomized, waitlist-controlled, crossover study to examine the effects and feasibility of the commercial Curves weight loss program among Hispanic, African American and Afro-Caribbean breast cancer survivors. Design and Methods Women with stage 0– IIIa breast cancer ≥6 months posttreatment, sedentary, and BMI ≥25 kg/m2 were randomized to the immediate arm (IA): 6 months of the Curves program followed by 6 months of observation; or the waitlist control arm (WCA): 6 months of observation followed by 6 months of the Curves program. The Curves program uses a 30-min exercise circuit and a high-vegetable/low-fat/calorie-restricted diet. Results A total of 42 women enrolled (79% Hispanic, 21% black), mean age 51 (range 32–69) and mean BMI 33.2(±5.9) kg/m2; 91% were retained at month 12. At month 6, women in the IA lost an average 3.3% (±3.5%) of body weight (range: 1.7% gain to 10.6% loss), as compared with 1.8% (±2.9%) weight loss in the WCA (P = 0.04). At month 12, on average women in the IA regained some but not all of the weight lost during the first 6 months (P = 0.02). Conclusions Minority breast cancer survivors were recruited and retained in a weight loss study. Six months of the Curves program resulted in moderate weight loss, but weight loss was not maintained postintervention. Future interventions should identify methods to increase uptake and maintenance of weight loss behaviors. PMID:23505170

A pilot randomized controlled trial of a commercial diet and exercise weight loss program in minority breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Greenlee, Heather A; Crew, Katherine D; Mata, Jennie M; McKinley, Paula S; Rundle, Andrew G; Zhang, Wenfei; Liao, Yuyan; Tsai, Wei Y; Hershman, Dawn L

2013-01-01

Obesity is associated with poorer breast cancer outcomes and losing weight postdiagnosis may improve survival. As Hispanic and black women have poorer breast cancer prognosis than non-Hispanic whites diagnosed at similar age and stage, and have higher rates of obesity, effective weight loss strategies are needed. We piloted a randomized, waitlist-controlled, crossover study to examine the effects and feasibility of the commercial Curves weight loss program among Hispanic, African American and Afro-Caribbean breast cancer survivors. Women with stage 0-IIIa breast cancer ≥ 6 months posttreatment, sedentary, and BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2) were randomized to the immediate arm (IA): 6 months of the Curves program followed by 6 months of observation; or the waitlist control arm (WCA): 6 months of observation followed by 6 months of the Curves program. The Curves program uses a 30-min exercise circuit and a high-vegetable/low-fat/calorie-restricted diet. A total of 42 women enrolled (79% Hispanic, 21% black), mean age 51 (range 32-69) and mean BMI 33.2(± 5.9) kg/m(2); 91% were retained at month 12. At month 6, women in the IA lost an average 3.3% (± 3.5%) of body weight (range: 1.7% gain to 10.6% loss), as compared with 1.8% (± 2.9%) weight loss in the WCA (P = 0.04). At month 12, on average women in the IA regained some but not all of the weight lost during the first 6 months (P = 0.02). Minority breast cancer survivors were recruited and retained in a weight loss study. Six months of the Curves program resulted in moderate weight loss, but weight loss was not maintained postintervention. Future interventions should identify methods to increase uptake and maintenance of weight loss behaviors. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

Statistical properties of derivatives: A journey in term structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lautier, Delphine; Raynaud, Franck

2011-06-01

This article presents an empirical study of 13 derivative markets for commodities and financial assets. The study goes beyond statistical analysis by including the maturity as a variable for the daily returns of futures contracts from 1998 to 2010, and for delivery dates up to 120 months. We observe that the mean and variance of the commodities follow a scaling behavior in the maturity dimension with an exponent characteristic of the Samuelson effect. The comparison between the tails of the probability distribution according to the expiration dates shows that there is a segmentation in the fat tails exponent term structure above the Lévy stable region. Finally, we compute the average tail exponent for each maturity, and we observe two regimes of extreme events for derivative markets, reminiscent of a phase diagram with a sharp transition at the 18th delivery month.

Comparative utility of the BESTest, mini-BESTest, and brief-BESTest for predicting falls in individuals with Parkinson disease: a cohort study.

PubMed

Duncan, Ryan P; Leddy, Abigail L; Cavanaugh, James T; Dibble, Leland E; Ellis, Terry D; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K Bo; Earhart, Gammon M

2013-04-01

The newly developed brief-balance evaluation system test (brief-BESTest) may be useful for measuring balance and predicting falls in individuals with Parkinson disease (PD). The purposes of this study were: (1) to describe the balance performance of those with PD using the brief-BESTest, (2) to determine the relationships among the scores derived from the 3 versions of the BESTest (i.e., full BESTest, mini-BESTest, and brief-BESTest), and (3) to compare the accuracy of the brief-BESTest with that of the mini-BESTest and BESTest in identifying recurrent fallers among people with PD. This was a prospective cohort study. Eighty participants with PD completed a baseline balance assessment. All participants reported a fall history during the previous 6 months. Fall history was again collected 6 months (n=51) and 12 months (n=40) later. At baseline, participants had varying levels of balance impairment, and brief-BESTest scores were significantly correlated with mini-BESTest (r=.94, P<.001) and BESTest (r=.95, P<.001) scores. Six-month retrospective fall prediction accuracy of the Brief-BESTest was moderately high (area under the curve [AUC]=0.82, sensitivity=0.76, and specificity=0.84). Prospective fall prediction accuracy over 6 months was similarly accurate (AUC=0.88, sensitivity=0.71, and specificity=0.87), but was less sensitive over 12 months (AUC=0.76, sensitivity=0.53, and specificity=0.93). The sample included primarily individuals with mild to moderate PD. Also, there was a moderate dropout rate at 6 and 12 months. All versions of the BESTest were reasonably accurate in identifying future recurrent fallers, especially during the 6 months following assessment. Clinicians can reasonably rely on the brief-BESTest for predicting falls, particularly when time and equipment constraints are of concern.

Temporal Stability of Heavy Drinking Days and Drinking Reductions among Heavy Drinkers in the COMBINE Study

PubMed Central

Witkiewitz, Katie; Wilson, Adam D.; Pearson, Matthew R.; Hallgren, Kevin A.; Falk, Daniel E.; Litten, Raye Z.; Kranzler, Henry R.; Mann, Karl F.; Hasin, Deborah S.; O'Malley, Stephanie S.; Anton, Raymond F.

2017-01-01

Background Recently, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed to expand the options for primary endpoints in the development of medications for alcohol use disorder (AUD) to include either abstinence from alcohol or a non-abstinent outcome: no heavy drinking days (with a heavy drinking day defined as more than 3 drinks per day for women and more than 4 drinks per day for men [>3/>4 cutoff]). The FDA also suggested that 6 months would be the most appropriate length for a clinical trial to demonstrate the stability of this non-abstinent drinking outcome. However, few alcohol clinical trials have examined the stability of non-heavy drinking during and after treatment. Methods In a secondary analysis of the COMBINE study data (n=1383), we examined transitions in heavy drinking days during the course of treatment (months 1 through 4), during the transition out of treatment (months 4 through 7), and up to 12 months afterwards (months 13 through 16) using latent variable mixture models. Results Heavy drinking and non-heavy drinking were relatively stable in consecutive months (minimum agreement (kappa) = .64 for months 1 to 2). Most individuals were stable low-risk drinkers/abstainers or heavy drinkers by the end of treatment, as characterized by a 10% probability (or less) of transitioning out of either a no heavy drinking state or a heavy drinking state. More than two-thirds of the heavy drinkers who exceeded the heavy drinking threshold during treatment reported, on average, a 64% reduction in drinking frequency and a 38% reduction in drinking intensity from pretreatment drinking levels. Conclusions The results show stability of no heavy drinking as an outcome within the first four months of treatment and that the >3/>4 drink cutoff may mask substantial reductions in alcohol consumption among some patients. Future studies should explore the clinical utility of reduction endpoints. PMID:28295414

Reward-related neural activity and structure predict future substance use in dysregulated youth.

PubMed

Bertocci, M A; Bebko, G; Versace, A; Iyengar, S; Bonar, L; Forbes, E E; Almeida, J R C; Perlman, S B; Schirda, C; Travis, M J; Gill, M K; Diwadkar, V A; Sunshine, J L; Holland, S K; Kowatch, R A; Birmaher, B; Axelson, D A; Frazier, T W; Arnold, L E; Fristad, M A; Youngstrom, E A; Horwitz, S M; Findling, R L; Phillips, M L

2017-06-01

Identifying youth who may engage in future substance use could facilitate early identification of substance use disorder vulnerability. We aimed to identify biomarkers that predicted future substance use in psychiatrically un-well youth. LASSO regression for variable selection was used to predict substance use 24.3 months after neuroimaging assessment in 73 behaviorally and emotionally dysregulated youth aged 13.9 (s.d. = 2.0) years, 30 female, from three clinical sites in the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) study. Predictor variables included neural activity during a reward task, cortical thickness, and clinical and demographic variables. Future substance use was associated with higher left middle prefrontal cortex activity, lower left ventral anterior insula activity, thicker caudal anterior cingulate cortex, higher depression and lower mania scores, not using antipsychotic medication, more parental stress, older age. This combination of variables explained 60.4% of the variance in future substance use, and accurately classified 83.6%. These variables explained a large proportion of the variance, were useful classifiers of future substance use, and showed the value of combining multiple domains to provide a comprehensive understanding of substance use development. This may be a step toward identifying neural measures that can identify future substance use disorder risk, and act as targets for therapeutic interventions.

Alcohol Demand, Future Orientation, and Craving Mediate the Relation Between Depressive and Stress Symptoms and Alcohol Problems

PubMed Central

Soltis, Kathryn E.; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan; Murphy, James G.

2017-01-01

Background Elevated depression and stress have been linked to greater levels of alcohol problems among young adults even after taking into account drinking level. The current study attempts to elucidate variables that might mediate the relation between symptoms of depression and stress and alcohol problems, including alcohol demand, future time orientation, and craving. Methods Participants were 393 undergraduates (60.8% female, 78.9% White/Caucasian) who reported at least 2 binge drinking episodes (4/5+ drinks for women/men, respectively) in the previous month. Participants completed self-report measures of stress and depression, alcohol demand, future time orientation, craving, and alcohol problems. Results In separate mediation models that accounted for gender, race, and weekly alcohol consumption, future orientation and craving significantly mediated the relation between depressive symptoms and alcohol problems. Alcohol demand, future orientation, and craving significantly mediated the relation between stress symptoms and alcohol problems. Conclusions Heavy drinking young adults who experience stress or depression are likely to experience alcohol problems and this is due in part to elevations in craving and alcohol demand, and less sensitivity to future outcomes. Interventions targeting alcohol misuse in young adults with elevated levels of depression and stress should attempt to increase future orientation and decrease craving and alcohol reward value. PMID:28401985

Alcohol Demand, Future Orientation, and Craving Mediate the Relation Between Depressive and Stress Symptoms and Alcohol Problems.

PubMed

Soltis, Kathryn E; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E; Murphy, James G

2017-06-01

Elevated depression and stress have been linked to greater levels of alcohol problems among young adults even after taking into account drinking level. This study attempts to elucidate variables that might mediate the relation between symptoms of depression and stress and alcohol problems, including alcohol demand, future time orientation, and craving. Participants were 393 undergraduates (60.8% female, 78.9% White/Caucasian) who reported at least 2 binge-drinking episodes (4/5+ drinks for women/men, respectively) in the previous month. Participants completed self-report measures of stress and depression, alcohol demand, future time orientation, craving, and alcohol problems. In separate mediation models that accounted for gender, race, and weekly alcohol consumption, future orientation and craving significantly mediated the relation between depressive symptoms and alcohol problems. Alcohol demand, future orientation, and craving significantly mediated the relation between stress symptoms and alcohol problems. Heavy-drinking young adults who experience stress or depression are likely to experience alcohol problems, and this is due in part to elevations in craving and alcohol demand, and less sensitivity to future outcomes. Interventions targeting alcohol misuse in young adults with elevated levels of depression and stress should attempt to increase future orientation and decrease craving and alcohol reward value. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Adherence to Highly Active Antiretroviral Treatment in HIV-Infected Rwandan Women

PubMed Central

Musiime, Stephenson; Muhairwe, Fred; Rutagengwa, Alfred; Mutimura, Eugene; Anastos, Kathryn; Hoover, Donald R.; Qiuhu, Shi; Munyazesa, Elizaphane; Emile, Ivan; Uwineza, Annette; Cowan, Ethan

2011-01-01

Background Scale-up of highly active antiretroviral treatment therapy (HAART) programs in Rwanda has been highly successful but data on adherence is limited. We examined HAART adherence in a large cohort of HIV+ Rwandan women. Methods The Rwanda Women's Interassociation Study Assessment (RWISA) was a prospective cohort study that assessed effectiveness and toxicity of ART. We analyzed patient data 12±3 months after HAART initiation to determine adherence rates in HIV+ women who had initiated HAART. Results Of the 710 HIV+ women at baseline, 490 (87.2%) initiated HAART. Of these, 6 (1.2%) died within 12 months, 15 others (3.0%) discontinued the study and 80 others (19.0%) remained in RWISA but did not have a post-HAART initiation visit that fell within the 12±3 month time points leaving 389 subjects for analysis. Of these 389, 15 women stopped their medications without being advised to do so by their doctors. Of the remaining 374 persons who reported current HAART use 354 completed the adherence assessment. All women, 354/354, reported 100% adherence to HAART at the post-HAART visit. The high self-reported level of adherence is supported by changes in laboratory measures that are influenced by HAART. The median (interquartile range) CD4 cell count measured within 6 months prior to HAART initiation was 185 (128, 253) compared to 264 (182, 380) cells/mm3 at the post-HAART visit. Similarly, the median (interquartile range) MCV within 6 months prior to HAART initiation was 88 (83, 93) fL compared to 104 (98, 110) fL at the 12±3 month visit. Conclusion Self-reported adherence to antiretroviral treatment 12±3 months after initiating therapy was 100% in this cohort of HIV-infected Rwandan women. Future studies should explore country-specific factors that may be contributing to high levels of adherence to HAART in this population. PMID:22114706

Resting-state functional brain networks in first-episode psychosis: A 12-month follow-up study.

PubMed

Ganella, Eleni P; Seguin, Caio; Pantelis, Christos; Whittle, Sarah; Baune, Bernhard T; Olver, James; Amminger, G Paul; McGorry, Patrick D; Cropley, Vanessa; Zalesky, Andrew; Bartholomeusz, Cali F

2018-05-01

Schizophrenia is increasingly conceived as a disorder of brain network connectivity and organization. However, reports of network abnormalities during the early illness stage of psychosis are mixed. This study adopted a data-driven whole-brain approach to investigate functional connectivity and network architecture in a first-episode psychosis cohort relative to healthy controls and whether functional network properties changed abnormally over a 12-month period in first-episode psychosis. Resting-state functional connectivity was performed at two time points. At baseline, 29 first-episode psychosis individuals and 30 healthy controls were assessed, and at 12 months, 14 first-episode psychosis individuals and 20 healthy controls completed follow-up. Whole-brain resting-state functional connectivity networks were mapped for each individual and analyzed using graph theory to investigate whether network abnormalities associated with first-episode psychosis were evident and whether functional network properties changed abnormally over 12 months relative to controls. This study found no evidence of abnormal resting-state functional connectivity or topology in first-episode psychosis individuals relative to healthy controls at baseline or at 12-months follow-up. Furthermore, longitudinal changes in network properties over a 12-month period did not significantly differ between first-episode psychosis individuals and healthy control. Network measures did not significantly correlate with symptomatology, duration of illness or antipsychotic medication. This is the first study to show unaffected resting-state functional connectivity and topology in the early psychosis stage of illness. In light of previous literature, this suggests that a subgroup of first-episode psychosis individuals who have a neurotypical resting-state functional connectivity and topology may exist. Our preliminary longitudinal analyses indicate that there also does not appear to be deterioration in these network properties over a 12-month period. Future research in a larger sample is necessary to confirm our longitudinal findings.

Associations of Infant Feeding and Timing of Weight Gain and Linear Growth during Early Life with Childhood Blood Pressure: Findings from a Prospective Population Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Vrijkotte, Tanja G. M.; van Eijsden, Manon; Gemke, Reinoud J. B. J.

2016-01-01

Objective Small birth size and rapid postnatal growth have been associated with higher future blood pressure. The timing of these effects, the relative importance of weight gain and linear growth and the role of infant feeding need to be clarified. Methods We assessed how blood pressure relates to birth weight, infant and childhood growth and infant feeding (duration of exclusive breastfeeding and timing of introduction of complementary feeding) in 2227 children aged 5 years from a prospective cohort study (Amsterdam Born Children and their Development). Postnatal growth was represented by statistically independent measures of relative weight gain (weight gain independent of height) and linear growth in four age periods during infancy (0–1 month; 1–3 months; 3–6 months; 6–12 months) and from 12 months to 5 years. Results Lower birth weight was associated with higher childhood diastolic blood pressure (-0.38 mm Hg.SD-1; P = 0.007). Faster relative weight gain and linear growth after 1 month were positively associated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Associations of linear growth with systolic blood pressure ranged from 0.47 to 1.49 mm Hg.SD-1; P<0.01 for all. Coefficients were similar for different periods of infancy and also for relative weight gain and linear growth. Compared to breastfeeding <1 month, breastfeeding >1 month was associated with lower blood pressure (e.g. >6 months -1.56 mm Hg systolic blood pressure; P<0.001). Compared to >6 months, introduction of complementary feeding <6 months was associated with higher blood pressure (e.g. 4–6 months 0.91 mm Hg systolic blood pressure; P = 0.004). Conclusions After the age of one month faster growth in either weight or height is associated with higher childhood blood pressure. It is unknown whether faster weight gain and linear growth carry the same risk for adult hypertension and cardiovascular morbidity. Longer breastfeeding and delayed introduction of complementary feeding may be associated with lower adult blood pressure. PMID:27832113

Associations of Infant Feeding and Timing of Weight Gain and Linear Growth during Early Life with Childhood Blood Pressure: Findings from a Prospective Population Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

de Beer, Marieke; Vrijkotte, Tanja G M; Fall, Caroline H D; van Eijsden, Manon; Osmond, Clive; Gemke, Reinoud J B J

2016-01-01

Small birth size and rapid postnatal growth have been associated with higher future blood pressure. The timing of these effects, the relative importance of weight gain and linear growth and the role of infant feeding need to be clarified. We assessed how blood pressure relates to birth weight, infant and childhood growth and infant feeding (duration of exclusive breastfeeding and timing of introduction of complementary feeding) in 2227 children aged 5 years from a prospective cohort study (Amsterdam Born Children and their Development). Postnatal growth was represented by statistically independent measures of relative weight gain (weight gain independent of height) and linear growth in four age periods during infancy (0-1 month; 1-3 months; 3-6 months; 6-12 months) and from 12 months to 5 years. Lower birth weight was associated with higher childhood diastolic blood pressure (-0.38 mm Hg.SD-1; P = 0.007). Faster relative weight gain and linear growth after 1 month were positively associated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Associations of linear growth with systolic blood pressure ranged from 0.47 to 1.49 mm Hg.SD-1; P<0.01 for all. Coefficients were similar for different periods of infancy and also for relative weight gain and linear growth. Compared to breastfeeding <1 month, breastfeeding >1 month was associated with lower blood pressure (e.g. >6 months -1.56 mm Hg systolic blood pressure; P<0.001). Compared to >6 months, introduction of complementary feeding <6 months was associated with higher blood pressure (e.g. 4-6 months 0.91 mm Hg systolic blood pressure; P = 0.004). After the age of one month faster growth in either weight or height is associated with higher childhood blood pressure. It is unknown whether faster weight gain and linear growth carry the same risk for adult hypertension and cardiovascular morbidity. Longer breastfeeding and delayed introduction of complementary feeding may be associated with lower adult blood pressure.

Sensitivity of power system operations to projected changes in water availability due to climate change: the Western U.S. case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Macknick, J.; Fu, T.; O'Connell, M.; Zhou, T.; Brinkman, G.

2017-12-01

Water resources provide multiple critical services to the electrical grid through hydropower technologies, from generation to regulation of the electric grid (frequency, capacity reserve). Water resources can also represent vulnerabilities to the electric grid, as hydropower and thermo-electric facilities require water for operations. In the Western U.S., hydropower and thermo-electric plants that rely on fresh surface water represent 67% of the generating capacity. Prior studies have looked at the impact of change in water availability under future climate conditions on expected generating capacity in the Western U.S., but have not evaluated operational risks or changes resulting from climate. In this study, we systematically assess the impact of change in water availability and air temperatures on power operations, i.e. we take into account the different grid services that water resources can provide to the electric grid (generation, regulation) in the system-level context of inter-regional coordination through the electric transmission network. We leverage the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) hydrology simulations under historical and future climate conditions, and force the large scale river routing- water management model MOSART-WM along with 2010-level sectoral water demands. Changes in monthly hydropower potential generation (including generation and reserves), as well as monthly generation capacity of thermo-electric plants are derived for each power plant in the Western U.S. electric grid. We then utilize the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions for the 2010 infrastructure under 100 years of historical and future (2050 horizon) hydroclimate conditions. We use economic metrics as well as operational metrics such as generation portfolio, emissions, and reserve margins to assess the changes in power system operations between historical and future normal and extreme water availability conditions. We provide insight on how this information can be used to support resource adequacy and grid expansion studies over the Western U.S. in the context of inter-annual variability and climate change.

FIVE-YEAR OUTCOMES AFTER LONG-TERM OXANDROLONE ADMINISTRATION IN SEVERELY BURNED CHILDREN: A RANDOMIZED CLINICAL TRIAL.

PubMed

Reeves, Patrick T; Herndon, David N; Tanksley, Jessica D; Jennings, Kristofer; Klein, Gordon L; Mlcak, Ronald P; Clayton, Robert P; Crites, Nancy N; Hays, Joshua P; Andersen, Clark; Lee, Jong O; Meyer, Walter; Suman, Oscar E; Finnerty, Celeste C

2016-04-01

Administration of oxandrolone, a nonaromatizable testosterone analog, to children for 12 months following severe burn injury has been shown to improve height, increase bone mineral content (BMC), reduce cardiac work, and augment muscle strength. Surprisingly, the increase in BMC persists well beyond the period of oxandrolone administration. This study was undertaken to determine if administration of oxandrolone for 2 years yields greater effects on long-term BMC and bone mineral density (BMD). Patients between 0 and 18 years of age with ≥30% of total body surface area burned were consented to an IRB-approved protocol and randomized to receive either placebo (n = 84) or 0.1 mg/kg oxandrolone orally twice daily for 24 months (n = 35). Patients were followed prospectively from the time of admission until 5 years postburn in a single-center, intent-to-treat setting. Height, weight, BMC, and BMD were recorded annually through 5 years postinjury. The long-term administration of oxandrolone for 16 ± 1 months postburn (range, 12.1-25.2 months) significantly increased whole-body (WB) BMC (p < 0.02) and lumbar spine (LS) BMC (p < 0.05); these effects were significantly pronounced for a longer time in patients who were in growth spurt years (7-18 years). When adjusted for height, sex, and age, LS BMD was found to significantly increase with long-term oxandrolone administration (p < 0.0009). Fewer patients receiving oxandrolone exhibited LS BMD z scores below -2.0 as compared with controls, indicating a significantly reduced risk for future fracture with oxandrolone administration. Long-term oxandrolone patients had significantly greater height velocity than controls throughout the first 2-year postburn (p < 0.05). No adverse side effects were attributed to the long-term administration of oxandrolone. A comparison of the current patients receiving long-term oxandrolone to previously described patients receiving 12 months of oxandrolone revealed that long-term oxandrolone administration imparted significantly greater increases in WB-BMC, WB-BMD, and LS-BMD (p < 0.05). In conclusion, the administration of oxandrolone for up to 24 months to severely burned pediatric patients significantly improves WB BMC, LS BMC, LS BMD, and height velocity. The administration of long-term oxandrolone was more efficacious than administration for 12 months. Additionally, fewer patients in the oxandrolone cohort met the diagnostic criteria for pediatric osteoporosis, pointing to a reduced risk for future bone fracture. This study demonstrates that administering oxandrolone for up to 2 years following severe burn injury results in greater improvements in BMC, BMD, and height velocity.

Normative Velopharyngeal Data in Infants: Implications for Treatment of Cleft Palate.

PubMed

Schenck, Graham C; Perry, Jamie L; Fang, Xiangming

2016-09-01

Identifying normative data related to velopharyngeal muscles and structures may have clinical significance for infants born with cleft palate, especially as they relate to selection of surgical intervention and postsurgical outcomes. Previous studies suggest that patients whose anatomy postsurgically is dissimilar to that of their normative counterparts are at risk for hypernasal speech. However, studies have not documented what constitutes "normal" anatomy for the clinically relevant population-that is, the infant population. The purpose of this study is to examine a magnetic resonance imaging database (n = 29) related to normative velopharyngeal structures and provide a preliminary comparison to 2 selected patients with repaired cleft palate. Twenty-nine healthy infants between 9 and 23 months of age (mean = 15.2 months) with normal craniofacial and velopharyngeal anatomy were recruited to participate in this study. Normative data were compared to 2 infants with repaired cleft palate between 13 and 15 months of age (mean = 14 months). Quantitative craniometric and velopharyngeal measures from the sagittal and oblique coronal image planes were collected. Variables of interest included: levator muscle, velar, and craniometric measures. Females demonstrated significantly larger intravelar segments compared with males. White infants demonstrated significantly larger levator muscles compared to non-white infants. Infants with repaired cleft palate demonstrated increased overall levator muscle length and levator extravelar length compared with infants with normal velopharyngeal anatomy.Data from the present study provide a normative database for future investigators to utilize as a comparative tool when evaluating infants with normal and abnormal velopharyngeal anatomy.

[Pre- and post-surgical orthodontic treatment of mandibular asymmetry and prognathism].

PubMed

Chen, Song; Chen, Yang-xi; Hu, Jing

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze the pre- and post surgical orthodontic treatment of mandibular asymmetry and prognathism in our hospital, and to summarize some helpful experiences for future clinical work. The data were derived from 21 adults aged from 19 - 28 years who had severe mandibular asymmetry and prognathism. The ANB angle of all patients is from -3 degrees to -8 degrees. The value of wits of all patients is from -7 mm to -14 mm. The deviation of chin point of all patients is from 3 mm to 7 mm. The duration of pre- and post-surgical orthodontic treatment was 10-20 months (mean 18 months) and 5-10 months (mean 7.5 months), respectively. The keys in pre-surgical orthodontic treatment include (1) three dimensional dental decompensation; (2) arch form and transverse discrepancy correction; (3) model surgery and the splint making. The main objective of post surgical orthodontic treatment is to detail the occlusion. Pre- and post surgical orthodontic treatment is essential for the orthognathic treatment of patients with mandibular asymmetry and prognathism.

Sowing Seeds to Cultivate Future Army Leaders

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

and can operate successfully in Sowing Seeds to Cultivate Future Army Leaders Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Sowing Seeds to Cultivate Future Army Leaders 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d...month will not de- velop the next Army Chief of Staff, it is imperative to plant the seeds of new ideas and concepts early into our ju- nior leaders

Comparison of multi-monthly rainfall-based drought severity indices, with application to semi-arid Konya closed basin, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogan, Selim; Berktay, Ali; Singh, Vijay P.

2012-11-01

SummaryMany drought indices (DIs) have been introduced to monitor drought conditions. This study compares Percent of Normal (PN), Rainfall Decile based Drought Index (RDDI), statistical Z-Score, China-Z Index (CZI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Effective Drought Index (EDI) to identify droughts in a semi-arid closed basin (Konya), Turkey. Comparison studies of DIs under different climatic conditions is always interesting and may be insightful. Employing and comparing 18 different timesteps, the objective of comparison is twofold: (1) to determine the effect of timestep for choosing an appropriate value, and (2) to determine the sensitivity of DI to timestep and the choice of a DI. Monthly rainfall data obtained from twelve spatially distributed stations was used to compare DIs for timesteps ranging from 1 month to 48 months. These DIs were evaluated through correlations for various timesteps. Surprisingly, in many earlier studies, only 1-month time step has been used. Results showed that the employment of median timesteps was essential for future studies, since 1-month timestep DIs were found as irrelevant to those for other timesteps in arid/semi-arid regions because seasonal rainfall deficiencies are common there. Comparing time series of various DI values (numerical values of drought severity) instead of drought classes was advantageous for drought monitoring. EDI was found to be best correlated with other DIs when considering all timesteps. Therefore, drought classes discerned by DIs were compared with EDI. PN and RDDI provided different results than did others. PN detected a decrease in drought percentage for increasing timestep, while RDDI overestimated droughts for all timesteps. SPI and CZI were more consistent in detecting droughts for different timesteps. The response of DI and timestep combination to the change of monthly and multi-monthly rainfall for a qualitative comparison of severities (drought classes) was investigated. Analyzing the 1973-1974 dry spell at Beysehir station, EDI was found sensitive to monthly rainfall changes with respect to cumulative rainfall changes, especially more sensitive than other DIs for shorter timesteps. Overall, EDI was consistent with DIs for various timesteps and was preferable for monitoring long-term droughts in arid/semi-arid regions. The use of various DIs for timesteps of 6, 9, and 12 months is essential for long term drought studies. 1-month DIs should not be used solely in comparison studies to present a DI, unless there is a specific reason. This investigation showed that the use of an appropriate timestep is as important as the type of DI used to identify drought severities.

Changes in plasma CXCL4 levels are associated with improvements in lung function in patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy for systemic sclerosis-related interstitial lung disease.

PubMed

Volkmann, Elizabeth R; Tashkin, Donald P; Roth, Michael D; Clements, Philip J; Khanna, Dinesh; Furst, Daniel E; Mayes, Maureen; Charles, Julio; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Elashoff, Robert M; Assassi, Shervin

2016-12-30

Increased circulatory levels of the chemokine CXCL4 have been associated with the presence of interstitial lung disease (ILD) in an observational study of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between baseline CXCL4 level and extent of ILD in the context of a randomized controlled trial and to determine whether changes in CXCL4 levels in response to immunosuppression are associated with future progression of SSc-ILD. A total of 142 SSc-ILD patients from Scleroderma Lung Study (SLS) II were randomized in a double-blind, parallel-arm trial, to receive mycophenolate (MMF) for 2 years or oral cyclophosphamide (CYC) for 1 year followed by 1 year of placebo. Plasma CXCL4 levels were measured at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months in SLS II participants (N = 136) and at a single time point in healthy controls (N = 67). A mixed-effects model evaluated the relationship between change in CXCL4 levels and SSc-ILD progression. The primary outcome was the course of the forced vital capacity. Baseline CXCL4 levels were significantly higher in SSc-ILD patients compared with healthy controls (2699 ± 1489 ng/ml vs 2233 ± 1351 ng/ml (mean ± SD); P = 0.019). However, no significant correlations were identified between CXCL4 levels and extent of ILD at baseline, as measured by the forced vital capacity, diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide, or radiographic extent of ILD. Plasma CXCL4 decreased significantly from baseline to 12 months in all patients (CYC: P < 0.001; MMF: P = 0.006) with no between-treatment differences (CYC vs MMF). Patients with the largest decline in CXCL4 levels during the first 12 months had an improved course of forced vital capacity %-predicted from 12 to 24 months (P = 0.040), even after adjusting for baseline disease severity and treatment arm assignment. Levels of CXCL4 were higher in patients with SSc-ILD compared with controls and decreased in all patients treated with immunosuppressive therapy. While CXCL4 levels were not correlated with extent of ILD at baseline, changes in CXCL4 at 12 months predicted future progression of SSc-ILD from 12 to 24 months. These findings suggest that intermediate-term changes in CXCL4 may have predictive significance for long-term progression of SSc-ILD in patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00883129 . Registered 16 April 2009.

Comparing groundwater recharge and storage variability from GRACE satellite observations with observed water levels and recharge model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, D. M.; Henry, C.; Demon, H.; Kirste, D. M.; Huang, J.

2011-12-01

Sustainable management of groundwater resources, particularly in water stressed regions, requires estimates of groundwater recharge. This study in southern Mali, Africa compares approaches for estimating groundwater recharge and understanding recharge processes using a variety of methods encompassing groundwater level-climate data analysis, GRACE satellite data analysis, and recharge modelling for current and future climate conditions. Time series data for GRACE (2002-2006) and observed groundwater level data (1982-2001) do not overlap. To overcome this problem, GRACE time series data were appended to the observed historical time series data, and the records compared. Terrestrial water storage anomalies from GRACE were corrected for soil moisture (SM) using the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to obtain monthly groundwater storage anomalies (GRACE-SM), and monthly recharge estimates. Historical groundwater storage anomalies and recharge were determined using the water table fluctuation method using observation data from 15 wells. Historical annual recharge averaged 145.0 mm (or 15.9% of annual rainfall) and compared favourably with the GRACE-SM estimate of 149.7 mm (or 14.8% of annual rainfall). Both records show lows and peaks in May and September, respectively; however, the peak for the GRACE-SM data is shifted later in the year to November, suggesting that the GLDAS may poorly predict the timing of soil water storage in this region. Recharge simulation results show good agreement between the timing and magnitude of the mean monthly simulated recharge and the regional mean monthly storage anomaly hydrograph generated from all monitoring wells. Under future climate conditions, annual recharge is projected to decrease by 8% for areas with luvisols and by 11% for areas with nitosols. Given this potential reduction in groundwater recharge, there may be added stress placed on an already stressed resource.

How Does Brief Motivational Intervention Change Heavy Drinking and Harm Among Underage Young Adult Drinkers?

PubMed Central

Magill, Molly; Colby, Suzanne M.; Orchowski, Lindsay; Murphy, James G.; Hoadley, Ariel; Brazil, Linda A.; Barnett, Nancy P.

2017-01-01

Objective This study tested mediating processes hypothesized to explain the therapeutic benefit of an efficacious motivational interview (MI). The constructs of interest were motivation to change, cognitive dissonance about current drinking, self-efficacy for change, perceived young adult drinking norms, future drinking intentions, and the use of protective behavioral strategies. Method A randomized controlled trial compared the efficacy of a brief MI to a time- and attention-matched control of meditation and relaxation training for alcohol use. Participants were underage, past-month heavy drinkers recruited from community (i.e., non four-year college or university) settings (N=167; ages 17–20; 58% female; 61% White). Statistical analyses assessed mechanisms of MI effects on follow up (6-week; 3-month) percent heavy drinking days (HDD) and alcohol consequences (AC) with a series of temporally-lagged mediation models. Results MI efficacy for reducing 6-week HDD was mediated by baseline to post-session changes in the following three processes: increasing motivation and self-efficacy, and decreasing the amount these young adults intended to drink in the future. For 6-week AC, MI efficacy was mediated through one process: decreased perceived drinking norms. At 3-month follow up, increased cognitive dissonance mediated HDD, but not AC. Further, increased use of certain protective behavioral strategies (i.e., avoidance of and seeking alternatives to drinking contexts) from baseline to 6-weeks mediated both 3-month HDD and AC. Conclusions Findings suggest that within-session cognitive changes are key mechanisms of MI’s effect on short-term alcohol outcomes among community young adults while protective behaviors may be more operative at subsequent follow up. PMID:28287800

A case of anorexia nervosa with comorbid Crohn's disease: beneficial effects of anti-TNF-α therapy?

PubMed

Solmi, Marco; Santonastaso, Paolo; Caccaro, Roberta; Favaro, Angela

2013-09-01

This case report describes a 26-year-old woman affected by long-lasting anorexia nervosa (AN) and Crohn's disease. Worsening of the bowel illness led to the prescription of immunosuppressive therapy (biologic infliximab for 4 months, followed by adalimumab for 6 months) and referral to our Eating Disorders Unit. Although she initially demonstrated denial of her eating disorder, in a few months she gradually improved her weight and psychopathology. Crohn's disease can worsen AN by modifying hunger and energy expenditure through the effects of TNF-α and IL-6, pro-inflammatory cytokines which moderate leptin and melanocortin signaling. Previous studies have observed the antidepressant effects of TNF antagonist in patients with treatment-resistant depression with high baseline inflammatory biomarkers. Our case report suggests that future studies are needed to clarify the existence, patterns, and extent of increased inflammatory markers in patients with AN, and whether they determine clinical features or identify subgroups of patients. Potential therapeutic significance of above issues remains to be determined. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Adults With ADHD in Outpatient Psychiatric Care.

PubMed

Pettersson, Richard; Söderström, Staffan; Edlund-Söderström, Kerstin; Nilsson, Kent W

2017-04-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate an Internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) program targeting difficulties and impairments associated with adult ADHD. Forty-five adults diagnosed with ADHD were randomized to either self-help (iCBT self-help format [iCBT-S]), self-help with weekly group sessions (iCBT group-therapy format [iCBT-G]), or a waiting-list control group. Treatment efficacy was measured at pre- and posttreatment and at 6-month follow-up. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis showed a significant reduction in ADHD symptoms for the iCBT-S group in comparison with the waiting-list controls at posttreatment, with a between-group effect size of d = 1.07. The result was maintained at 6-month follow-up. No significant difference was found at posttreatment or 6-month follow-up between the iCBT-S and iCBT-G groups. The findings show that a CBT treatment program administered through the Internet can be a promising treatment for adult ADHD. Limitations of the study design and directions for future research are discussed.

Parent satisfaction with neuropsychological consultation after pediatric mild traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Kirkwood, Michael W; Peterson, Robin L; Baker, David A; Connery, Amy K

2017-04-01

Few studies have focused on consumer satisfaction following neuropsychological evaluation. We sought to examine parent satisfaction with neuropsychological consultation following a mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) in school-age children. We surveyed 71 parents of 8- to 17-year-olds participating in a prospective longitudinal study examining neuropsychological consultation as an intervention for persistent postconcussive symptoms. Children had sustained injuries between 2 and 12 months prior to enrollment. Neuropsychological consultation occurred on average 5 months post-injury. Parent satisfaction data were collected via telephone approximately 4 months after the neuropsychological consultation. The vast majority of parents were quite satisfied with the service (e.g., 94% overall satisfaction rate; 96% rated the service as good or excellent). Satisfaction rates were associated positively with time since injury and negatively with parental education. No other child, parent, or provider variable correlated with satisfaction. The results add to the relatively sparse literature on parent satisfaction with neuropsychological evaluation. A pressing future need in pediatric neuropsychology is to examine the satisfaction of other consumers of the service, including healthcare personnel, educators, and the child patients themselves.

Chlorine dioxide water disinfection: a prospective epidemiology study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael, G.E.; Miday, R.K.; Bercz, J.P.

An epidemiologic study of 198 persons exposed for 3 months to drinking water disinfected with chlorine dioxide was conducted in a rural village. A control population of 118 nonexposed persons was also studied. Pre-exposure hematologic and serum chemical parameters were compared with test results after 115 days of exposure. Chlorite ion levels in the water averaged approximately 5 ppM during the study period. Statistical analysis (ANOVA) of the data failed to identify any significant exposure-related effects. This study suggests that future evaluations of chlorine dioxide disinfection should be directed toward populations with potentially increased sensitivity to hemolytic agents.

One Year Follow-up of Outcomes from the Randomized Clinical Trial of the Building on Family Strengths Program.

PubMed

Churchill, Shervin S; Kieckhefer, Gail M

2018-06-01

Objectives Test the 12-month efficacy of an inclusive non-diagnosis-specific, parent education program with seven in-person sessions. Methods Parents of 110 children, 2-11 years old, with a variety of special health care conditions, were recruited to participate in a randomized clinical trial. At twelve months data from 104 parents were available for longitudinal analysis. Linear mixed models, with the interaction term of group by time, were used to assess the efficacy of the intervention over 12 months using data from 3 time points: baseline, 6 and 12 months. The outcome measures were self-efficacy, parent and child shared management of chronic condition, coping skills, parental depressive symptoms and quality of life. Results All of the outcomes improved within the intervention group over 12 months. Self-efficacy was the strongest outcome which remained significantly different from the control group 12 months post intervention, without any statistical adjustment (p = 0.045). The coefficient of the interaction term for study group (intervention or control) by time, quantifying the intervention effect, was statistically significant for four of five pre-specified study outcomes, favorably so toward the intervention group (p < 0.05, with the 5th outcome, parental depression, p = 0.052). Conclusions for Practice The Building on Family Strengths intervention was efficacious in improving self-efficacy, shared management, coping skills, and quality of life and decreasing depressive symptoms in parents, in particular for parents who were most impacted by the lack of these strengths and skills at baseline. These results are encouraging and future studies to investigate the efficacy of this intervention in an Internet-based setting or other modalities are encouraged.

Variations over time in the effects of age and sex on hospitalization rates before and after admission to a nursing home: A German cohort study.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Falk; Allers, Katharina

2017-08-01

We examined hospitalization rates for nursing home residents before and after their entry to the home, stratified by sex and age. A cohort study was conducted using data from a large health insurance fund on 127,227 residents aged 65 years and over newly admitted to a nursing home between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014. We assessed hospitalization rates and proportions being hospitalized in 6-month intervals one year before nursing home placement and up to 5 years thereafter. Multiple Poisson regression models were fitted to calculate relative risks (RR). Mean age was 84.0 years and 74.6% of the cohort were females. Hospitalization rates were 194.4 per 100 person-years (PY) in the 12 months before entry to the nursing home and 120.0 per 100 PY thereafter. Rates were highest immediately before entry in both sexes. The influence of age was most pronounced in the 12-7 months before entry (RR: 2.37 for 65-74 vs. 95+ years) and declined thereafter (1.29-1.38 up to month 24 after entry). In contrast, the influence of sex was greater after entry (RR: 1.13 for males vs. females in the 12-7 months before and 1.23-1.31 up to month 24 after entry). Hospitalization rates of nursing home residents are much higher in Germany than in other Western countries. We have provided some insight into the influence of age and sex on hospitalization rates, which varied over the period (time before and after entry to the nursing home) analyzed. We urgently recommend that future studies on the hospitalization of residents stratify their analyses by sex, age and period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the efficacy of immunotherapy with a glutaraldehyde-modified house dust mite extract in children by monitoring changes in clinical parameters and inflammatory markers in exhaled breath.

PubMed

Lozano, Jaime; Cruz, María-Jesús; Piquer, Mónica; Giner, Maria-Teresa; Plaza, Ana María

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of specific immunotherapy (SIT) management with allergoids in children with allergic asthma by monitoring changes in clinical parameters and inflammatory markers in exhaled breath. The study population included 43 patients (24 males) of 6-14 years of age, who had allergic asthma and were sensitized to mites. Twenty-three individuals were treated with subcutaneous SIT (PURETHAL® Mites, HAL Allergy) for 8 months, i.e. the SIT group, and 20 were given medication to treat symptoms only, i.e. the control group. Before treatment and after 4 and 8 months, several clinical parameters, the levels of exhaled nitric oxide and the pH of exhaled breath condensate (EBC) were determined. The SIT group presented with an improvement in asthma classification, a reduction in maintenance drug therapy and improved scores on the quality-of-life questionnaire. These changes were not observed in the control group. Both groups presented significant decreases in EBC pH values at 4 and 8 months after treatment compared to at baseline. However, analysis of the variable 'ratio' showed an increase in the EBC pH values after 8 months of treatment in the SIT group compared with the values at 4 months. SIT with standardized mite extract reduces asthma symptoms in children. A decrease in EBC pH values was observed in both groups, although the SIT group presented a tendency of recovered values after 8 months. Future studies of EBC pH monitoring in the longer term are needed to determine the effectiveness of this marker. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Predictors of Sexual Coercion and Alcohol Use among Female Juvenile Offenders

PubMed Central

Yeater, Elizabeth A.; Montanaro, Erika A.; Bryan, Angela D.

2014-01-01

Female juvenile offenders report high rates of sexual coercion and substance use, yet the temporal relationship between the two remains unclear. The focus of this study was to conduct a prospective examination of predictors of sexual coercion and substance use for a group of high-risk young women. Two hundred and forty five adolescent females (34% of a sample including males and females), between the ages of 14-17, and from a larger study of juvenile offenders, were recruited from juvenile probation offices to participate in a longitudinal study on substance use and sexual risk. At baseline, participants completed measures associated with increased risk for sexual coercion, including substance use, perceived relationship control, and externalizing behavior. At 6- and 24-month follow-up, participants also completed a measure assessing sexually coercive experiences. Path analysis revealed that less relationship control at baseline predicted sexual coercion at 6-months. Additionally, 6-month sexual coercion predicted alcohol use and sexual coercion at 24-month follow-up. Logistic regression analysis revealed also that alcohol use at 6-months predicted sexual revictimization at 24-months. Sexual coercion appears to be associated with subsequent increases in alcohol use, suggesting that female juvenile offenders may be using alcohol to cope with the psychological and emotional consequences of victimization. Alcohol use is linked to increased risk for repeat sexual coercion, suggesting that exposure to risky environments also may be important in understanding these girls' risk. Difficulties responding assertively in sexual relationships (i.e., low relationship control) also seem to increase female juvenile offenders' risk for sexual coercion. Finally, previous sexual coercion appears to increase risk for future victimization, highlighting the importance of early intervention for this at-risk group. PMID:25107488

Can initial perceptions about quitting predict smoking cessation among Malaysian smokers?

PubMed

Yasin, Siti Munira; Masilamani, Retneswari; Ming, Moy Foong; Koh, David; Zaki, Rafdzah Ahmad

2012-03-01

Perceived risks and benefits of quitting smoking may be important factors in successful treatment. This study examined the association between initial perceived risks and benefits of quitting smoking and outcomes during a two month smoking cessation attempt. Participants (n = 185) were treatment-seeking smokers attending two smoking cessation clinics in Klang Valley, Malaysia. They received structured behavioral therapy and free Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT). Prior to treatment, a 12 item Perceived Risks and Benefits Questionnaire (PRBQ) was administered. This was used to assess the smoker's initial perceptions during their quit attempt. Participants were re-contacted at the end of two months to determine their smoking status. The results show participants intending to quit demonstrated a greater understanding of the benefits of quitting smoking than the risks of quitting. Those with a higher education level had a greater understanding of the benefits of quitting (p = 0.02). PRBQ items, such as perceived risks of quitting (ie weight gain, negative affect, social ostracism, loss of enjoyment and craving) were not associated with abstinence at two months. However, those who perceived a benefit of higher physical attraction post-cessation were less likely to have stopped smoking at two months (OR 0.18; 95% CI 0.08-0.45). Other perceived benefits at baseline, such as health, general well-being, self-esteem, finances and social approval, were not associated with smoking cessation at two months. The results suggest that in our study population, smokers' baseline perceptions of the benefits of cessation of smoking prior to therapy are not associated with quit results at two months. Counseling patients regarding the advantages and disadvantages of quitting may have changed their perceptions during quitting process and should be further explored in future studies.

Postpartum depressive symptoms and the combined load of paid and unpaid work: a longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Dagher, Rada K; McGovern, Patricia M; Dowd, Bryan E; Lundberg, Ulf

2011-10-01

To investigate the effects of total workload and other work-related factors on postpartum depression in the first 6 months after childbirth, utilizing a hybrid model of health and workforce participation. We utilized data from the Maternal Postpartum Health Study collected in 2001 from a prospective cohort of 817 employed women who delivered in three community hospitals in Minnesota. Interviewers collected data at enrollment and 5 weeks, 11 weeks, and 6 months after childbirth. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale measured postpartum depression. Independent variables included total workload (paid and unpaid work), job flexibility, supervisor and coworker support, available social support, job satisfaction, infant sleep problems, infant irritable temperament, and breastfeeding. Total average daily workload increased from 14.4 h (6.8 h of paid work; 7.1% working at 5 weeks postpartum) to 15.0 h (7.9 h of paid work; 87% working at 6 months postpartum) over the 6 months. Fixed effects regression analyses showed worse depression scores were associated with higher total workload, lower job flexibility, lower social support, an infant with sleep problems, and breastfeeding. Working mothers of reproductive years may find the study results valuable as they consider merging their work and parenting roles after childbirth. Future studies should examine the specific mechanisms through which total workload affects postpartum depressive symptoms.

Longitudinal Measurement Invariance of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Deployed Marines.

PubMed

Contractor, Ateka A; Bolton, Elisa; Gallagher, Matthew W; Rhodes, Charla; Nash, William P; Litz, Brett

2017-06-01

The meaningful interpretation of longitudinal study findings requires temporal stability of the constructs assessed (i.e., measurement invariance). We sought to examine measurement invariance of the construct of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders indexed by the PTSD Checklist (PCL) and the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS) in a sample of 834 Marines with significant combat experience. PTSD was assessed 1-month predeployment (T0), and again at 1-month (T1), 5-months (T2), and 8-months postdeployment (T3). We tested configural (pattern of item/parcel loadings), metric (item/parcel loadings on latent factors), and scalar (item/parcel-level severity) invariance and explored sources of measurement instability (partial invariance testing). The T0 best-fitting emotional numbing model factor structure informed the conceptualization of PTSD's latent factors and parcel formations. We found (1) scalar noninvariance for the construct of PTSD as measured by the PCL and the CAPS, and for PTSD symptom clusters as assessed by the CAPS; and (2) metric noninvariance for PTSD symptom clusters as measured by the PCL. Exploratory analyses revealed factor-loading and intercept differences from pre- to postdeployment for avoidance symptoms, numbing symptoms (mainly psychogenic amnesia and foreshortened future), and the item assessing startle, each of which reduced construct stability. Implications of these findings for longitudinal studies of PTSD are discussed. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Simulation study on combination of GRACE monthly gravity field solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jean, Yoomin; Meyer, Ulrich; Jäggi, Adrian

2016-04-01

The GRACE monthly gravity fields from different processing centers are combined in the frame of the project EGSIEM. This combination is done on solution level first to define weights which will be used for a combination on normal equation level. The applied weights are based on the deviation of the individual gravity fields from the arithmetic mean of all involved gravity fields. This kind of weighting scheme relies on the assumption that the true gravity field is close to the arithmetic mean of the involved individual gravity fields. However, the arithmetic mean can be affected by systematic errors in individual gravity fields, which consequently results in inappropriate weights. For the future operational scientific combination service of GRACE monthly gravity fields, it is necessary to examine the validity of the weighting scheme also in possible extreme cases. To investigate this, we make a simulation study on the combination of gravity fields. Firstly, we show how a deviated gravity field can affect the combined solution in terms of signal and noise in the spatial domain. We also show the impact of systematic errors in individual gravity fields on the resulting combined solution. Then, we investigate whether the weighting scheme still works in the presence of outliers. The result of this simulation study will be useful to understand and validate the weighting scheme applied to the combination of the monthly gravity fields.

Physics Teachers' Future Teaching Plans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Physics Teacher, 2012

2012-01-01

There are two sides of the physics teacher turnover equation: teachers leaving and teachers entering. This month we will focus on teachers' future teaching plans. As seen in the figure, about 5% of the 27,000 teachers who taught physics in U.S. high schools in 2008-09 were in their first year of teaching physics (but not necessarily their first…

17 CFR 5.13 - Reporting to customers of retail foreign exchange dealers and futures commission merchants...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... exchange dealer or futures commission merchant must promptly furnish in writing to each retail forex... once every three months, a statement which clearly shows: (1) For each retail forex customer: (i) The open retail forex transactions with prices at which acquired; (ii) The net unrealized profits or losses...

17 CFR 5.13 - Reporting to customers of retail foreign exchange dealers and futures commission merchants...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... exchange dealer or futures commission merchant must promptly furnish in writing to each retail forex... once every three months, a statement which clearly shows: (1) For each retail forex customer: (i) The open retail forex transactions with prices at which acquired; (ii) The net unrealized profits or losses...

17 CFR 5.13 - Reporting to customers of retail foreign exchange dealers and futures commission merchants...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... exchange dealer or futures commission merchant must promptly furnish in writing to each retail forex... once every three months, a statement which clearly shows: (1) For each retail forex customer: (i) The open retail forex transactions with prices at which acquired; (ii) The net unrealized profits or losses...

Alternative futures of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export from the Mississippi River Basin: influence of crop management, atmospheric deposition, and population growth

EPA Science Inventory

Nitrogen (N) export from the Mississippi River Basin contributes to seasonal hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We explored monthly dissolved inorganic N (DIN) export to the GOM for a historical year (2002) and two future scenarios (year 2022) by linking macroeonomic energy, ag...

3 CFR 9032 - Proclamation 9032 of September 30, 2013. National Energy Action Month, 2013

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... reduce carbon pollution, and we must build global markets for new advanced technologies. If we take these... must invest in the technologies of the future and fund breakthrough research to make these technologies... world in creating green jobs and technologies that are vital to both a clean energy future and the fight...

77 FR 76311 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Fixed Income Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Advance...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-27

... the Advance Notice FICC is proposing to replace the prepayment model component (``Prepayment Model... calculations. The cash flow of a TBA CUSIP is the sum of all discounted future monthly cash flows. The future... prepayment model developed by the Office of Thrift Supervision (``OTS''); this particular model is no longer...

Stress Reduction Through a Brief Writing Intervention With Women in Jail.

PubMed

Pankey, Tyson; Kelly, Patricia J; Ramaswamy, Megha

2016-07-01

To assess the feasibility/acceptability of writing as a stress reduction strategy with incarcerated women. The authors implemented a writing intervention in which six women wrote on topics of their choosing for 20 minutes on 5 consecutive days. Feasibility was assessed with investigator field notes; daily post-writing evaluations assessed intervention acceptability. The study also assessed the continuation of writing at 1-month postintervention and acceptability of instruments for evaluation of future interventions. Implementation barriers were minimal; participants voiced enthusiasm about the program and continued to write 3 to 4 days per week in the month postintervention. No problems were encountered in the completion of evaluation instruments. Writing is a feasible, reproducible stress relief intervention for incarcerated women. © The Author(s) 2016.

High Rate of Discontinuation May Diminish PrEP Coverage Among Young Men Who Have Sex with Men.

PubMed

Morgan, Ethan; Ryan, Daniel T; Newcomb, Michael E; Mustanski, Brian

2018-05-04

Understanding pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) discontinuation is key to maximizing its effectiveness at the individual and population levels. Data came from the RADAR cohort study of MSM aged 16-29 years, 2015-2017. Participants included those who reported past 6-month PrEP use and discontinued its use by the interview date. Of the 197 participants who had used PrEP in the past 6 months, 65 discontinued use. Primary reasons for PrEP discontinuation included trouble getting to doctor's appointments (14, 21.5%) and issues related to insurance coverage or loss (13, 20.0%). Few (21%) who discontinued spoke to their doctor first, which has important implications for future long acting formulations.

Relation between early motor delay and later communication delay in infants at risk for autism.

PubMed

Bhat, A N; Galloway, J C; Landa, R J

2012-12-01

Motor delays have been reported in retrospective studies of young infants who later develop Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs). In this study, we prospectively compared the gross motor development of a cohort at risk for ASDs; infant siblings of children with ASDs (AU sibs) to low risk typically developing (LR) infants. 24 AU sibs and 24 LR infants were observed at 3 and 6 months using a standardized motor measure, the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS). In addition, as part of a larger study, the AU sibs also received a follow-up assessment to determine motor and communication performance at 18 months using the Mullen Scales of Early Learning. Significantly more AU sibs showed motor delays at 3 and 6 months than LR infants. The majority of the AU sibs showed both early motor delays and later communication delays. Small sample size and limited follow-up. Early motor delays are more common in AU sibs than LR infants. Communication delays later emerged in 67-73% of the AU sibs who had presented with early motor delays. Overall, early motor delays may be predictive of future communication delays in children at risk for autism. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cessation and reduction in smoking behavior: impact of creating a smoke-free home on smokers.

PubMed

Haardörfer, R; Kreuter, M; Berg, C J; Escoffery, C; Bundy, L T; Hovell, M; Mullen, P D; Williams, R; Kegler, M C

2018-06-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of a creating a smoke-free home (SFH) on cessation and reduction of cigarette smoking on low-income smokers. This secondary data analysis uses data from study participants who were originally recruited through 2-1-1 information and referral call centers in Atlanta (Georgia, 2013), North Carolina (2014) and the Texas Gulf Coast (2015) across three randomized controlled trials testing an intervention aimed at creating SFHs, pooling data from 941 smokers. Participants who reported adopting a SFH were more likely to report quitting smoking than those who did not adopt a SFH. This was true at 3-month follow-up and even more pronounced at 6-month follow-up and persisted when considering only those who consistently reported no smoking at 3 and 6 months. Among those who did not stop smoking, the number of cigarettes per day declined significantly more and quit attempts were more frequent for those who created a SFH compared with those who did not. Findings suggest that creating a SFH facilitates cessation, reduces cigarette consumption and increases quit attempts. Future studies should assess the long-term impact of SFHs on sustaining cessation.

Retention Strategies for Health Disparities Preventive Trials: Findings from the Early Childhood Caries Collaborating Centers

PubMed Central

Garcia, Raul I.; Tiwari, Tamanna; Ramos-Gomez, Francisco; Heaton, Brenda; Orozco, Mario; Rasmussen, Margaret; Braun, Patricia; Henshaw, Michelle; Borrelli, Belinda; Albino, Judith; Vargas, Clemencia; Diamond, Courtney; Gebel, Christina; Batliner, Terrence S.; Barker, Judith; Gregorich, Steven; Gansky, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

Objectives To identify successful strategies for retention of participants in multi-year, community-based randomized controlled trials (RCTs) aiming to reduce early childhood caries in health disparities populations from diverse racial/ethnic backgrounds and across diverse geographic settings. Methods Four RCTs conducted by the Early Childhood Caries Collaborating Centers (EC4), an initiative of the National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research, systematically collected information on the success of various strategies implemented to promote participant retention in each RCT. The observational findings from this case series of four RCTs were tabulated and the strategies rated by study staff. Results Participant retention at 12 months of follow-up ranged from 52.8% to 91.7%, and at 24 months ranged from 53.6% to 85.9, across the four RCT. For the three RCT that had a 36 month follow-up, retention ranged from 53.6% to 85.1%. Effectiveness of different participant retention strategies varied widely across the RCT. Conclusions Findings from this case series study may help to guide the design of future RCTs to maximize retention of study participants and yield needed data on effective interventions to reduce oral health disparities. PMID:27759164

Outcome of first-episode schizophrenia in India: longitudinal study of effect of insight and psychopathology.

PubMed

Saravanan, Balasubramanian; Jacob, K S; Johnson, Shanthi; Prince, Martin; Bhugra, Dinesh; David, Anthony S

2010-06-01

Transcultural studies have found lack of insight to be an almost invariable feature of acute and chronic schizophrenia, but its influence on prognosis is unclear. To investigate the relationship between insight, psychopathology and outcome of first-episode schizophrenia in Vellore, India. Patients with a DSM-IV diagnosis of schizophrenia (n = 131) were assessed prospectively at baseline and at 6-month and 12-month follow-up. Demographic and clinical measures included insight, psychopathology, duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) and social functioning. Linear and logistic regression was used to measure predictors of outcome. Follow-up data were available for 115 patients at 1 year. All achieved remission, half of them with and half without residual symptoms. Changes in psychopathology and insight during the first 6 months and DUP strongly predicted outcome (relapse or functional impairment), controlling for baseline measures. Outcome of schizophrenia in this setting is driven by early symptomatic improvement and is relatively favourable, in line with other studies from low- and middle-income countries. Early improvement in insight might be a useful clinical guide to future outcome. Reduction of DUP should be a target for intervention.

Detection of decomposition volatile organic compounds in soil following removal of remains from a surface deposition site.

PubMed

Perrault, Katelynn A; Stefanuto, Pierre-Hugues; Stuart, Barbara H; Rai, Tapan; Focant, Jean-François; Forbes, Shari L

2015-09-01

Cadaver-detection dogs use volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to search for human remains including those deposited on or beneath soil. Soil can act as a sink for VOCs, causing loading of decomposition VOCs in the soil following soft tissue decomposition. The objective of this study was to chemically profile decomposition VOCs from surface decomposition sites after remains were removed from their primary location. Pig carcasses were used as human analogues and were deposited on a soil surface to decompose for 3 months. The remains were then removed from each site and VOCs were collected from the soil for 7 months thereafter and analyzed by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC×GC-TOFMS). Decomposition VOCs diminished within 6 weeks and hydrocarbons were the most persistent compound class. Decomposition VOCs could still be detected in the soil after 7 months using Principal Component Analysis. This study demonstrated that the decomposition VOC profile, while detectable by GC×GC-TOFMS in the soil, was considerably reduced and altered in composition upon removal of remains. Chemical reference data is provided by this study for future investigations of canine alert behavior in scenarios involving scattered or scavenged remains.

Evolution of accesses to information on breast cancer and screening on the Brazilian National Cancer Institute website: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Vasconcellos-Silva, Paulo Roberto; Sormunen, Taina; Craftman, Åsa Gransjön

2018-04-01

Delays in diagnosis due to low Breast Cancer awareness are widespread in Brazil maybe owing to ineffective strategies to raise attention on early diagnosis. As a proxy of collective interest in BC screanning (BCS) we studied the monthly accesses to BC and BCS webpages in INCA's website along 48 months. A log analyzer built a time serie (2006-2009) of BC and BCS monthly means, which oscilations were studied by analysis of variance (ANOVA). We found significant increasing accesses to BC and transient "attention peaks". Enlargement in BC/BCS differences along all period were caused by increasing accesses to BC and decreasing/minor/stable oscillations to SBC pages. These results are consistent with previous reports on increasing interest to BC contrasting with indifference on BCS. In the context of an exploratory study, we discussed some aspects: weakness of a "prevention culture"; lack of confidence in health system and screening programs; "celebrity effect" in the context of media framing; collective perception of risks heightened by perception of social vulnerability. Findings suggest that culture-tailored communication strategies would be necessary to inform Brazilian people about BCS. Future research is needed to study social perceptions and constructions on BC topics.

Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.

PubMed

Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

The prevalence and clinical significance of sonographic tendon abnormalities in asymptomatic ballet dancers: a 24-month longitudinal study.

PubMed

Comin, Jules; Cook, Jill L; Malliaras, Peter; McCormack, Moira; Calleja, Michelle; Clarke, Andrew; Connell, David

2013-01-01

Sonographic abnormalities of the achilles and patellar tendons are common findings in athletes, and tendinopathy is a common cause of pain and disability in athletes. However, it is unclear whether the sonographic changes are pathological or adaptive, or if they predict future injury. We undertook a cohort study to determine what sonographic features of the achilles and patellar tendons are consistent with changes as a result of ballet training, and which may be predictive of future development of disabling tendon symptoms. The achilles and patellar tendons of 79 (35 male, 44 female) professional ballet dancers (members of the English Royal Ballet) were examined with ultrasound, measuring proximal and distal tendon diameters and assessing for the presence of hypoechoic change, intratendon defects, calcification and neovascularity. All subjects were followed for 24 months for the development of patellar tendon or achilles-related pain or injury severe enough to require time off from dancing. Sonographic abnormalities were common among dancers, both male and female, and in both achilles and patellar tendons. Disabling tendon-related symptoms developed in 10 dancers and 14 tendons: 7 achilles (3 right, 4 left) and 7 patellar (2 right, 5 left). The presence of moderate or severe hypoechoic defects was weakly predictive for the development of future disabling tendon symptoms (p=0.0381); there was no correlation between any of the other sonographic abnormalities and the development of symptoms. There was no relationship between achilles or patellar tendons' diameter, either proximal or distal, with an increased likelihood of developing tendon-related disability. The presence of sonographic abnormalities is common in ballet dancers, but only the presence of focal hypoechoic changes predicts the development of future tendon-related disability. This suggests that screening of asymptomatic individuals may be of use in identifying those who are at higher risk of developing tendon-related disability, which may in turn allow targeted modifications of training or other preventative regimens.

Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M.

2016-01-01

Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45 % of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10 % of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

Evaluating potential sources of variation in Chironomidae catch rates on sticky traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Joshua T.; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

2016-01-01

Sticky traps are a convenient tool for assessing adult aquatic insect population dynamics, but there are many practical questions about how trap sampling artefacts may affect observed results. Utilising study sites on the Colorado River and two smaller streams in northern Arizona, USA, we evaluated whether catch rates and sex ratios of Chironomidae, a ubiquitous aquatic insect, were affected by spraying traps with insecticide, placing traps at different heights above ground, and placing traps at different locations within a terrestrial habitat patch. We also evaluated temporal variation in Chironomidae counts monthly over a 9-month growing season. We found no significant variation in catch rates or sex ratios between traps treated versus untreated with insecticide, nor between traps placed at the upstream or downstream end of a terrestrial habitat patch. Traps placed near ground level did have significantly higher catch rates than traps placed at 1.5 m, although sex ratios were similar across heights. Chironomidae abundance and sex ratios also varied from month-to-month and seemed to be related to climatic conditions. Our results inform future sticky trap studies by demonstrating that trap height, but not insecticide treatment or precise trap placement within a habitat patch, is an important source of variation influencing catch rates.

Enamel-based mark performance for marking Chinese mystery snail Bellamya chinensis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Alec; Allen, Craig R.; Hart, Noelle M.; Haak, Danielle M.; Pope, Kevin L.; Smeenk, Nicholas A.; Stephen, Bruce J.; Uden, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

The exoskeleton of gastropods provides a convenient surface for carrying marks, and i the interest of improving future marking methods our laboratory assessed the performance of an enamel paint. The endurance of the paint was also compared to other marking methods assessed in the past. We marked the shells of 30 adult Chinese mystery snails Bellamya chinensis and held them in an aquarium for 181 days. We observed no complete degradation of any enamel-paint mark during the 181 days. The enamel-paint mark was superior to a nai;-polish mark, which lasted a median of 100 days. Enamel-paint marks also have a lower rate of loss (0.00 month-1 181 days) than plastic bee tags (0.01 month-1, 57 days), gouache paint (0.07 month-1, 18.5 days), or car body paint from studies found in scientific literature. Legibility of enamel-paint marks had a median lifetime of 102 days. The use of enamel paint on the shells of gastropods is a viable option for studies lasting up to 6 months. Furthermore, visits to capture-mark-recapture site 1 year after application of enamel-paint marks on B. chinesnis shells produced several individuals on which the enamel paint was still visible, although further testing is required to clarify durability over longer periods.

Heart rate variability associated with posttraumatic stress disorder in victims' families of sewol ferry disaster.

PubMed

Lee, Sang Min; Han, Hyesung; Jang, Kuk-In; Huh, Seung; Huh, Hyu Jung; Joo, Ji-Young; Chae, Jeong-Ho

2018-01-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which is caused by a major traumatic event, has been associated with autonomic nervous function. However, there have been few explorations of measuring biological stress in the victims' family members who have been indirectly exposed to the disaster. Therefore, this longitudinal study examined the heart rate variability (HRV) of the family members of victims of the Sewol ferry disaster. We recruited 112 family members of victims 18 months after the disaster. Sixty-seven participants were revisited at the 30 months postdisaster time point. HRV and psychiatric symptoms including PTSD, depression and anxiety were evaluated at each time point. Participants with PTSD had a higher low frequency to high frequency ratio (LF:HF ratio) than those without PTSD. Logistic regression analysis showed that the LF:HF ratio at 18 months postdisaster was associated with a PTSD diagnosis at 30 months postdisaster. These results suggest that disrupted autonomic nervous system functioning for longer than a year after trauma exposure contributes to predicting PTSD vulnerability. Our finding may contribute to understand neurophysiologic mechanisms underlying secondary traumatic stress. Future studies will be needed to clarify the interaction between autonomic regulation and trauma exposure. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability.

PubMed

Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M

2016-01-01

Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45% of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10% of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

Shaping long-term primate development: Telomere length trajectory as an indicator of early maternal maltreatment and predictor of future physiologic regulation.

PubMed

Drury, Stacy S; Howell, Brittany R; Jones, Christopher; Esteves, Kyle; Morin, Elyse; Schlesinger, Reid; Meyer, Jerrold S; Baker, Kate; Sanchez, Mar M

2017-12-01

The molecular, neurobiological, and physical health impacts of child maltreatment are well established, yet mechanistic pathways remain inadequately defined. Telomere length (TL) decline is an emerging molecular indicator of stress exposure with definitive links to negative health outcomes in maltreated individuals. The multiple confounders endemic to human maltreatment research impede the identification of causal pathways. This study leverages a unique randomized, cross-foster, study design in a naturalistic translational nonhuman primate model of infant maltreatment. At birth, newborn macaques were randomly assigned to either a maltreating or a competent control mother, balancing for sex, biological mother parenting history, and social rank. Offspring TL was measured longitudinally across the first 6 months of life (infancy) from peripheral blood. Hair cortisol accumulation was also determined at 6, 12, and 18 months of age. TL decline was greater in animals randomized to maltreatment, but also interacted with biological mother group. Shorter TL at 6 months was associated with higher mean cortisol levels through 18 months (juvenile period) when controlling for relevant covariates. These results suggest that even under the equivalent social, nutritional, and environmental conditions feasible in naturalistic translational nonhuman primate models, early adverse caregiving results in lasting molecular scars that foreshadow elevated health risk and physiologic dysregulation.

A pilot study of a chiropractic intervention for management of chronic myofascial temporomandibular disorder

PubMed Central

DeVocht, James W.; Goertz, Christine M.; Hondras, Maria A.; Long, Cynthia R.; Schaeffer, Wally; Thomann, Lauren; Spector, Michael; Stanford, Clark M.

2014-01-01

Background Temporomandibular pain has multiple etiologies and a range of therapeutic options. In this pilot study, the authors assessed the feasibility of conducting a larger trial to evaluate chiropractic treatment of temporomandibular disorders (TMDs). Methods The authors assigned 80 participants randomly into one of the following four groups, all of which included a comprehensive self-care program: reversible interocclusal splint therapy (RIST), Activator Method Chiropractic Technique (AMCT) (Activator Methods International, Phoenix), sham AMCT and self-care only. They made assessments at baseline and at month 2 and month 6, including use of the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders. Results The authors screened 721 potential participants and enrolled 80 people; 52 participants completed the six-month assessment. The adjusted mean change in current pain over six months, as assessed on the 11-point numerical rating scale, was 2.0 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.1-3.0) for RIST, 1.7 (0.9-2.5) for self-care only, 1.5 (0.7-2.4) for AMCT and 1.6 (0.7-2.5) for sham AMCT. The authors also assessed bothersomeness and functionality. Conclusions The authors found the study design and methodology to be manageable. They gained substantial knowledge to aid in conducting a larger study. AMCT, RIST and self-care should be evaluated in a future comparative effectiveness study. Practical Implications. This pilot study was a necessary step to prepare for a larger study that will provide clinicians with information that should be helpful when discussing treatment options for patients with TMD. PMID:24080932

Advanced Concept Studies for Supersonic Commercial Transports Entering Service in the 2018 to 2020 Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgenstern, John; Norstrud, Nicole; Sokhey, Jack; Martens, Steve; Alonso, Juan J.

2013-01-01

Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company (LM), working in conjunction with General Electric Global Research (GE GR), Rolls-Royce Liberty Works (RRLW), and Stanford University, herein presents results from the "N+2 Supersonic Validations" contract s initial 22 month phase, addressing the NASA solicitation "Advanced Concept Studies for Supersonic Commercial Transports Entering Service in the 2018 to 2020 Period." This report version adds documentation of an additional three month low boom test task. The key technical objective of this effort was to validate integrated airframe and propulsion technologies and design methodologies. These capabilities aspired to produce a viable supersonic vehicle design with environmental and performance characteristics. Supersonic testing of both airframe and propulsion technologies (including LM3: 97-023 low boom testing and April-June nozzle acoustic testing) verified LM s supersonic low-boom design methodologies and both GE and RRLW's nozzle technologies for future implementation. The N+2 program is aligned with NASA s Supersonic Project and is focused on providing system-level solutions capable of overcoming the environmental and performance/efficiency barriers to practical supersonic flight. NASA proposed "Initial Environmental Targets and Performance Goals for Future Supersonic Civil Aircraft". The LM N+2 studies are built upon LM s prior N+3 100 passenger design studies. The LM N+2 program addresses low boom design and methodology validations with wind tunnel testing, performance and efficiency goals with system level analysis, and low noise validations with two nozzle (GE and RRLW) acoustic tests.

Time series analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration using soft computing techniques for Ganjam District, Odisha, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, S. R.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET0) influences water resources and it is considered as a vital process in aridic hydrologic frameworks. It is one of the most important measure in finding the drought condition. Therefore, time series forecasting of evapotranspiration is very important in order to help the decision makers and water system mangers build up proper systems to sustain and manage water resources. Time series considers that -history repeats itself, hence by analysing the past values, better choices, or forecasts, can be carried out for the future. Ten years of ET0 data was used as a part of this study to make sure a satisfactory forecast of monthly values. In this study, three models: (ARIMA) mathematical model, artificial neural network model, support vector machine model are presented. These three models are used for forecasting monthly reference crop evapotranspiration based on ten years of past historical records (1991-2001) of measured evaporation at Ganjam region, Odisha, India without considering the climate data. The developed models will allow water resource managers to predict up to 12 months, making these predictions very useful to optimize the resources needed for effective water resources management. In this study multistep-ahead prediction is performed which is more complex and troublesome than onestep ahead. Our investigation proposed that nonlinear relationships may exist among the monthly indices, so that the ARIMA model might not be able to effectively extract the full relationship hidden in the historical data. Support vector machines are potentially helpful time series forecasting strategies on account of their strong nonlinear mapping capability and resistance to complexity in forecasting data. SVMs have great learning capability in time series modelling compared to ANN. For instance, the SVMs execute the structural risk minimization principle, which allows in better generalization as compared to neural networks that use the empirical risk minimization principle. The reliability of these computational models was analysed in light of simulation results and it was found out that SVM model produces better results among the three. The future research should be routed to extend the validation data set and to check the validity of our results on different areas with hybrid intelligence techniques.

Growth Mixture Modeling of Depression Symptoms Following Traumatic Brain Injury

PubMed Central

Gomez, Rapson; Skilbeck, Clive; Thomas, Matt; Slatyer, Mark

2017-01-01

Growth Mixture Modeling (GMM) was used to investigate the longitudinal trajectory of groups (classes) of depression symptoms, and how these groups were predicted by the covariates of age, sex, severity, and length of hospitalization following Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) in a group of 1074 individuals (696 males, and 378 females) from the Royal Hobart Hospital, who sustained a TBI. The study began in late December 2003 and recruitment continued until early 2007. Ages ranged from 14 to 90 years, with a mean of 35.96 years (SD = 16.61). The study also examined the associations between the groups and causes of TBI. Symptoms of depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale within 3 weeks of injury, and at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months post-injury. The results revealed three groups: low, high, and delayed depression. In the low group depression scores remained below the clinical cut-off at all assessment points during the 24-months post-TBI, and in the high group, depression scores were above the clinical cut-off at all assessment points. The delayed group showed an increase in depression symptoms to 12 months after injury, followed by a return to initial assessment level during the following 12 months. Covariates were found to be differentially associated with the three groups. For example, relative to the low group, the high depression group was associated with more severe TBI, being female, and a shorter period of hospitalization. The delayed group also had a shorter period of hospitalization, were younger, and sustained less severe TBI. Our findings show considerable fluctuation of depression over time, and that a non-clinical level of depression at any one point in time does not necessarily mean that the person will continue to have non-clinical levels in the future. As we used GMM, we were able to show new findings and also bring clarity to contradictory past findings on depression and TBI. Consequently, we recommend the use of this approach in future studies in this area. PMID:28878700

Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa

2018-05-01

Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

Epidemiology and incidence of acute and chronic Post-Surgical pain.

PubMed

Sansone, Pasquale; Pace, Maria Caterina; Passavanti, Maria Beatrice; Pota, Vincenzo; Colella, Umberto; Aurilio, Caterina

2015-01-01

Post Surgical Pain (PSP) treatment represents a significant aspect of management of surgical patients. Incidence of severe PSP, with significant functional deficit is estimated at 5-10%. Most studies include a limited number of patients and this is a factor which affects power of results. Aims of our prospective observational study was to evaluate the incidence and characteristics of acute and chronic PSP in patients undergoing surgery at the university hospital of second university of naples. After Ethics Committee approval and written informed consent, the PSP acute on first day (at least 6 hours after surgery) through the International Pain Outcomes questionnaire was rated. Subsequently, patients were followed-up at 6 and 12 months; data collection took place by e-mail or phone and the Brief Pain Inventory and the DN4 were administered. We enrolled 235 patients, 219 performed the follow-up to 6months, 195 even that to 12 The incidence of CPSP at 6 months was of 45.2% for mild pain, 15.9% for moderate pain and of 2.7% for severe pain while the incidence of CPSP at 12 months was 35.9%, 11.8% and 2.5% respectively for the pain mild, moderate and severe. Neuropathic pain occurred in 40.3% of patients who CPSP moderate at 12 months compared with 31.9% of the patients interviewed at 6 months. Incidence and characteristics of PSP varied, often considerably, depending on the type of surgery, gender, age of the patient and the presence of PSP severe in the 24 hours following surgery. The incidence of CPSP 12 months after surgery must be improved in the next future. Preoperative pain and the percentage of time with severe pain during the first 24 hours after surgery seem to be CPSP predictors.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ronnie J.

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

PubMed

De Vries, A; Feleke, S

2008-12-01

This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not significantly different. Application of the modified Mariano-Diebold tests showed that no method included all the information contained in the other methods. In conclusion, both F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods tended to more accurately predict the future uniform milk prices than the CURRENT method, but prediction errors could be substantial even a few months into the future. The majority of the prediction error was caused by the inefficiency of the futures markets to predict the class III cash prices.

Maternal Scaffolding and Preterm Toddlers’ Visual-Spatial Processing and Emerging Working Memory

PubMed Central

Poehlmann, Julie; Hilgendorf, Amy E; Miller, Kyle; Lambert, Heather

2010-01-01

Objective We examined longitudinal associations among neonatal and socioeconomic risks, maternal scaffolding behaviors, and 24-month visual-spatial processing and working memory in a sample of 73 toddlers born preterm or low birthweight (PT LBW). Methods Risk data were collected at hospital discharge and dyadic play interactions were observed at 16-months postterm. Abbreviated IQ scores, verbal/nonverbal working memory, and verbal/nonverbal visual-spatial processing data were collected at 24-months postterm. Results Higher attention scaffolding and lower emotion scaffolding during 16-month play were associated with 24-month verbal working memory scores. A joint significance test revealed that maternal attention and emotion scaffolding during 16-month play mediated the relationship between socioeconomic risk and 24-month verbal working memory. Conclusions These findings suggest areas for future research and intervention with children born PT LBW who also experience high socioeconomic risk. PMID:19505998

Interventions and social functioning in youth at risk of psychosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Devoe, Daniel J; Farris, Megan S; Townes, Parker; Addington, Jean

2018-06-25

Youth at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis often exhibit difficulties in social functioning and poorer social functioning may be predictive of transition to a psychotic disorder. Therefore, the primary objective of this systematic review was to summarize the impact of all interventions on social functioning in CHR samples. Electronic databases PsycINFO, CINAHL, Embase, EBM, and MEDLINE were searched from 1951 to June 2017. Studies were selected if they included any intervention that reported changes in social functioning in youth at CHR. Data were evaluated using random effects pairwise meta-analyses, stratified by time, and reported as the standardized mean difference (SMD). Nineteen studies met our inclusion criteria, including a total of 1513 CHR participants. The mean age was 20.5 years and 47% were male. Cognitive behavioural therapy (4 studies) did not significantly improve social functioning at 6 months (SMD = 0.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.35, 0.46), 12 months (SMD = -0.15; 95% CI = -0.38, 0.08) and 18 months (SMD = 0.20; 95% CI = -0.10, 0.50). Omega-3 (2 studies) did not significantly improve social functioning at 6 months (SMD = 0.01; 95% CI = -0.21, 0.24) and 12 months (SMD = -0.08; 95% CI = -0.33, 0.17). Lastly, cognitive remediation (3 studies) did not significantly improve social functioning at 2- to 3-month follow-up (SMD = 0.13, 95% CI = -0.18, 0.43). This systematic review and meta-analysis demonstrated that no treatment significantly improved social functioning in youth at CHR. Future randomized control trials are required that are designed to target and improve social functioning in youth at CHR for psychosis. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Effects of Infant Formula With Human Milk Oligosaccharides on Growth and Morbidity: A Randomized Multicenter Trial.

PubMed

Puccio, Giuseppe; Alliet, Philippe; Cajozzo, Cinzia; Janssens, Elke; Corsello, Giovanni; Sprenger, Norbert; Wernimont, Susan; Egli, Delphine; Gosoniu, Laura; Steenhout, Philippe

2017-04-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of infant formula supplemented with 2 human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs) on infant growth, tolerance, and morbidity. Healthy infants, 0 to 14 days old, were randomized to an intact-protein, cow's milk-based infant formula (control, n = 87) or the same formula with 1.0 g/L 2'fucosyllactose (2'FL) and 0.5 g/L lacto-N-neotetraose (LNnT) (test, n = 88) from enrollment to 6 months; all infants received standard follow-up formula without HMOs from 6 to 12 months. Primary endpoint was weight gain through 4 months. Secondary endpoints included additional anthropometric measures, gastrointestinal tolerance, behavioral patterns, and morbidity through age 12 months. Weight gain was similar in both groups (mean difference [95% confidence interval] test vs control: -0.30 [-1.94, 1.34] g/day; lower bound of 95% confidence interval was above noninferiority margin [-3 g/day]). Digestive symptoms and behavioral patterns were similar between groups; exceptions included softer stool (P = 0.021) and fewer nighttime wake-ups (P = 0.036) in the test group at 2 months. Infants receiving test (vs control) had significantly fewer parental reports (P = 0.004-0.047) of bronchitis through 4 (2.3% vs 12.6%), 6 (6.8% vs 21.8%), and 12 months (10.2% vs 27.6%); lower respiratory tract infection (adverse event cluster) through 12 months (19.3% vs 34.5%); antipyretics use through 4 months (15.9% vs 29.9%); and antibiotics use through 6 (34.1% vs 49.4%) and 12 months (42.0% vs 60.9%). Infant formula with 2'FL and LNnT is safe, well-tolerated, and supports age-appropriate growth. Secondary outcome findings showing associations between consuming HMO-supplemented formula and lower parent-reported morbidity (particularly bronchitis) and medication use (antipyretics and antibiotics) warrant confirmation in future studies.

Intimate Partner Violence, Sexual Autonomy and Postpartum STD Prevention Among Young Couples: A Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Willie, Tiara C; Callands, Tamora A; Kershaw, Trace S

2018-03-01

The transition to parenthood is a stressful time for young couples and can put them at risk for acquiring STDs. Mechanisms underlying this risk-particularly, intimate partner violence (IPV) and sexual autonomy-have not been well studied. Between 2007 and 2011, a prospective cohort study of the relationships and health of pregnant adolescents and their male partners recruited 296 couples at four hospital-based obstetrics and gynecology clinics in the U.S. Northeast; participants were followed up six and 12 months after the birth. Structural equation modeling identified associations among IPV at baseline and six months, sexual autonomy at six months and STD acquisition at 12 months. Mediating effects of sexual autonomy were tested via bootstrapping. Females were aged 14-21, and male partners were 14 or older. For females, IPV victimization at baseline was positively associated with the likelihood of acquiring a postpartum STD (coefficient, 0.4); level of sexual autonomy was inversely associated with the likelihood of acquiring an STD and of having a male partner who acquired one by the 12-month follow-up (-0.4 for each). For males, IPV victimization at baseline was negatively correlated with a female partner's sexual autonomy (-0.3) and likelihood of acquiring an STD (-0.7); victimization at six months was positively related to a partner's sexual autonomy (0.2). Sexual autonomy did not mediate these relationships. Females' sexual autonomy appears to protect against postpartum STDs for both partners. Future research should explore the efficacy of IPV-informed approaches to improving women's sexual and reproductive health. Copyright © 2018 by the Guttmacher Institute.

Effects of mental health interventions for students in higher education are sustainable over time: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Guldbrandsson, Karin; Sidorchuk, Anna

2018-01-01

Background Symptoms of depression, anxiety, and distress are more common in undergraduates compared to age-matched peers. Mental ill health among students is associated with impaired academic achievement, worse occupational preparedness, and lower future occupational performance. Research on mental health promoting and mental ill health preventing interventions has shown promising short-term effects, though the sustainability of intervention benefits deserve closer attention. We aimed to identify, appraise and summarize existing data from randomized control trials (RCTs) reporting on whether the effects of mental health promoting and mental ill health preventing interventions were sustained at least three months post-intervention, and to analyze how the effects vary for different outcomes in relation to follow-up length. Further, we aimed to assess whether the effect sustainability varied by intervention type, study-level determinants and of participant characteristics. Material and Methods A systematic search in MEDLINE, PsycInfo, ERIC, and Scopus was performed for RCTs published in 1995–2015 reporting an assessment of mental ill health and positive mental health outcomes for, at least, three months of post-intervention follow-up. Random-effect modeling was utilized for quantitative synthesis of the existing evidence with standardized mean difference (Hedges’ g) used to estimate an aggregated effect size. Sustainability of the effects of interventions was analyzed separately for 3–6 months, 7–12 months, and 13–18 months of post-intervention follow-up. Results About 26 studies were eligible after reviewing 6,571 citations. The pooled effects were mainly small, but significant for several categories of outcomes. Thus, for the combined mental ill health outcomes, symptom-reduction sustained up to 7–12 months post-intervention (standardized mean difference (Hedges’ g) effect size (ES) = −0.28 (95% CI [−0.49, −0.08])). Further, sustainability of symptom-reductions were evident for depression with intervention effect lasting up to 13–18 months (ES = −0.30 (95% CI [−0.51, −0.08])), for anxiety up to 7–12 months (ES = −0.27 (95% CI [−0.54, −0.01])), and for stress up to 3–6 months (ES = −0.30 (95% CI [−0.58, −0.03])). The effects of interventions to enhance positive mental health were sustained up to 3–6 months for the combined positive mental health outcomes (ES = 0.32 (95% CI [0.05, 0.59])). For enhanced active coping, sustainability up to 3–6 months was observed with a medium and significant effect (ES = 0.75 (95% CI [0.19, 1.30])). Discussion The evidence suggests long-term effect sustainability for mental ill health preventive interventions, especially for interventions to reduce the symptoms of depression and symptoms of anxiety. Interventions to promote positive mental health offer promising, but shorter-lasting effects. Future research should focus on mental health organizational interventions to examine their potential for students in tertiary education. PMID:29629247

Infants Prospectively Control Reaching Based on the Difficulty of Future Actions: To What Extent Can Infants' Multiple-Step Actions Be Explained by Fitts' Law?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gottwald, Janna M.; De Bortoli Vizioli, Aurora; Lindskog, Marcus; Nyström, Pär; L. Ekberg, Therese; von Hofsten, Claes; Gredebäck, Gustaf

2017-01-01

Prospective motor control, a key element of action planning, is the ability to adjust one's actions with respect to task demands and action goals in an anticipatory manner. The current study investigates whether 14-month-olds can prospectively control their reaching actions based on the difficulty of the subsequent action. We used a reach-to-place…

Adverse Events following 12 and 18 Month Vaccinations: a Population-Based, Self-Controlled Case Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Wilson, Kumanan; Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C.; Deeks, Shelley; Crowcroft, Natasha S.; Van Walraven, Carl; Potter, Beth K.; Chakraborty, Pranesh; Keelan, Jennifer; Pluscauskas, Michael; Manuel, Doug

2011-01-01

Background Live vaccines have distinct safety profiles, potentially causing systemic reactions one to 2 weeks after administration. In the province of Ontario, Canada, live MMR vaccine is currently recommended at age 12 months and 18 months. Methods Using the self-controlled case series design we examined 271,495 12 month vaccinations and 184,312 18 month vaccinations to examine the relative incidence of the composite endpoint of emergency room visits or hospital admissions in consecutive one day intervals following vaccination. These were compared to a control period 20 to 28 days later. In a post-hoc analysis we examined the reasons for emergency room visits and the average acuity score at presentation for children during the at-risk period following the 12 month vaccine. Results Four to 12 days post 12 month vaccination, children had a 1.33 (1.29–1.38) increased relative incidence of the combined endpoint compared to the control period, or at least one event during the risk interval for every 168 children vaccinated. Ten to 12 days post 18 month vaccination, the relative incidence was 1.25 (95%, 1.17–1.33) which represented at least one excess event for every 730 children vaccinated. The primary reason for increased events was statistically significant elevations in emergency room visits following all vaccinations. There were non-significant increases in hospital admissions. There were an additional 20 febrile seizures for every 100,000 vaccinated at 12 months. Conclusions There are significantly elevated risks of primarily emergency room visits approximately one to two weeks following 12 and 18 month vaccination. Future studies should examine whether these events could be predicted or prevented. PMID:22174753

Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

PubMed

O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

2015-02-01

Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. Method: A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. Results: During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression—as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Discussion: Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking–suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. PMID:25181026

Melatonin Treatment May Be Able to Restore Menstrual Cyclicity in Women With PCOS: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Tagliaferri, Valeria; Romualdi, Daniela; Scarinci, Elisa; Cicco, Simona De; Florio, Christian Di; Immediata, Valentina; Tropea, Anna; Santarsiero, Carla Mariaflavia; Lanzone, Antonio; Apa, Rosanna

2018-02-01

The objective of the study was to investigate the effects of 6 months of melatonin administration on clinical, endocrine, and metabolic features of women affected by polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). This is a prospective cohort study including 40 normal-weight women with PCOS between January and September 2016, enrolled in an academic research environment. Ultrasonographic pelvic examinations, hirsutism score evaluation, hormonal profile assays, oral glucose tolerance test, and lipid profile at baseline and after 6 months of melatonin administration were performed. Melatonin treatment significantly decreased androgens levels (free androgen index: P < .05; testosterone: P < .01; 17 hydroxyprogesterone: P < .01). Follicle-stimulating hormone levels significantly raised ( P < .01), and anti-Mullerian hormone serum levels significantly dropped after 6 months of melatonin treatment ( P < .01). No significant changes occurred in glucoinsulinemic and lipid parameters after treatment except a significant decrease of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Almost 95% of participants experienced an amelioration of menstrual cycles. Until now, only few data have been published about the role of melatonin in women with PCOS. This is the first study focused on the effects of exogenous oral melatonin administration on the clinical, endocrine, and metabolic characteristics of patients with PCOS. After 6 months of treatment, melatonin seems to improve menstrual irregularities and biochemical hyperandrogenism in women with PCOS through a direct, insulin-independent effect on the ovary. Based on our results, melatonin could be considered a potential future therapeutic agent for women affected by PCOS.

Histologic analysis of fetal bovine derived acellular dermal matrix in tissue expander breast reconstruction.

PubMed

Gaster, Richard S; Berger, Aaron J; Monica, Stefanie D; Sweeney, Robert T; Endress, Ryan; Lee, Gordon K

2013-04-01

This study seeks to determine human host response to fetal bovine acellular dermal matrix (ADM) in staged implant-based breast reconstruction. A prospective study was performed for patients undergoing immediate breast reconstruction with tissue expander placement and SurgiMend acellular fetal bovine dermis. At the time of exchange for permanent implant, we obtained tissue specimens of SurgiMend and native capsule. Histological and immunohistochemical assays were performed to characterize the extent of ADM incorporation/degradation, host cell infiltration, neovascularization, inflammation, and host replacement of acellular fetal bovine collagen. Seventeen capsules from 12 patients were included in our study. The average "implantation" time of SurgiMend was 7.8 months (range, 2-23 months). Histological analysis of the biopsy of tissue revealed rare infiltration of host inflammatory cells, even at 23 months. One patient had an infection requiring removal of the tissue expander at 2 months. Contracture, inflammatory changes, edema, and polymorphonuclear leukocyte infiltration were rare in the ADM. An acellular capsule was seen in many cases, at the interface of SurgiMend with the tissue expander. SurgiMend demonstrated a very infrequent inflammatory response. An antibody specific to bovine collagen allowed for direct identification of bovine collagen separate from human collagen. Cellular infiltration and neovascularization of SurgiMend correlated with the quality of the mastectomy skin flap rather than the duration of implantation. Future studies are needed to further characterize the molecular mechanisms underlying tissue incorporation of this product.

Changes in perceived centrality of anxious events following cognitive behavioral therapy for social anxiety disorder and panic disorder.

PubMed

O'Toole, Mia Skytte; Watson, Lynn; Rosenberg, Nicole K; Berntsen, Dorthe

2018-06-01

The purpose of the present study was to explore the association between reductions in symptoms of psychopathology and perceived centrality of negative autobiographical memories in participants with social anxiety disorder (SAD) or panic disorder (PD). Thirty-nine individuals with SAD or PD recalled and rated four negative autobiographical memories before and after ten sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) over a three-month period. Twenty-eight healthy controls did the same before and after a three-month period. As hypothesized, results showed a decrease in perceived centrality following CBT. This decrease in perceived centrality was larger, although at the trend level, for individuals who experienced reliable change on disorder-specific symptoms. The correlational nature of the study prevents establishing the causal relationship between changes in perceived centrality and psychopathology, and future studies should explore such mechanisms. The present study adds to the emerging body of literature, investigating changes in centrality of event following psychotherapy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impaired executive function can predict recurrent falls in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Mak, Margaret K; Wong, Adrian; Pang, Marco Y

2014-12-01

To examine whether impairment in executive function independently predicts recurrent falls in people with Parkinson's disease (PD). Prospective cohort study. University motor control research laboratory. A convenience sample of community-dwelling people with PD (N=144) was recruited from a patient self-help group and movement disorders clinics. Not applicable. Executive function was assessed with the Mattis Dementia Rating Scale Initiation/Perseveration (MDRS-IP) subtest, and fear of falling (FoF) with the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale. All participants were followed up for 12 months to record the number of monthly fall events. Forty-two people with PD had at least 2 falls during the follow-up period and were classified as recurrent fallers. After accounting for demographic variables and fall history (P=.001), multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the ABC scores (P=.014) and MDRS-IP scores (P=.006) were significantly associated with future recurrent falls among people with PD. The overall accuracy of the prediction was 85.9%. With the use of the significant predictors identified in multiple logistic regression analysis, a prediction model determined by the logistic function was generated: Z = 1.544 + .378 (fall history) - .045 (ABC) - .145 (MDRS-IP). Impaired executive function is a significant predictor of future recurrent falls in people with PD. Participants with executive dysfunction and greater FoF at baseline had a significantly greater risk of sustaining a recurrent fall within the subsequent 12 months. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

D-Dimer Levels before HIV Seroconversion Remain Elevated Even after Viral Suppression and Are Associated with an Increased Risk of Non-AIDS Events.

PubMed

Freiberg, Matthew S; Bebu, Ionut; Tracy, Russell; So-Armah, Kaku; Okulicz, Jason; Ganesan, Anuradha; Armstrong, Adam; O'Bryan, Thomas; Rimland, David; Justice, Amy C; Agan, Brian K

2016-01-01

The mechanism underlying the excess risk of non-AIDS diseases among HIV infected people is unclear. HIV associated inflammation/hypercoagulability likely plays a role. While antiretroviral therapy (ART) may return this process to pre-HIV levels, this has not been directly demonstrated. We analyzed data/specimens on 249 HIV+ participants from the US Military HIV Natural History Study, a prospective, multicenter observational cohort of >5600 active duty military personnel and beneficiaries living with HIV. We used stored blood specimens to measure D-dimer and Interleukin-6 (IL-6) at three time points: pre-HIV seroconversion, ≥6 months post-HIV seroconversion but prior to ART initiation, and ≥6 months post-ART with documented HIV viral suppression on two successive evaluations. We evaluated the changes in biomarker levels between time points, and the association between these biomarker changes and future non-AIDS events. During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, there were 28 incident non-AIDS diseases. At ART initiation, the median CD4 count was 361cells/mm3; median duration of documented HIV infection 392 days; median time on ART was 354 days. Adjusted mean percent increase in D-dimer levels from pre-seroconversion to post-ART was 75.1% (95% confidence interval 24.6-148.0, p = 0.002). This increase in D-dimer was associated with a significant 22% increase risk of future non-AIDS events (p = 0.03). Changes in IL-6 levels across time points were small and not associated with future non-AIDS events. In conclusion, ART initiation and HIV viral suppression does not eliminate HIV associated elevation in D-dimer levels. This residual pathology is associated with an increased risk of future non-AIDS diseases.

Changes in Seasonal and Extreme Hydrologic Conditions of the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound in an Ensemble Regional Climate Simulation for the Mid-Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

This study examines an ensemble of climate change projections simulated by a global climate model (GCM) and downscaled with a region climate model (RCM) to 40 km spatial resolution for the western North America. One control and three ensemble future climate simulations were produced by the GCM following a business as usual scenario for greenhouse gases and aerosols emissions from 1995 to 2100. The RCM was used to downscale the GCM control simulation (1995-2015) and each ensemble future GCM climate (2040-2060) simulation. Analyses of the regional climate simulations for the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound showed a warming of 1.5-2oC and statisticallymore » insignificant changes in precipitation by the mid-century. Climate change has large impacts on snowpack (about 50% reduction) but relatively smaller impacts on the total runoff for the basin as a whole. However, climate change can strongly affect small watersheds such as those located in the transient snow zone, causing a higher likelihood of winter flooding as a higher percentage of precipitation falls in the form of rain rather than snow, and reduced streamflow in early summer. In addition, there are large changes in the monthly total runoff above the upper 1% threshold (or flood volume) from October through May, and the December flood volume of the future climate is 60% above the maximum monthly flood volume of the control climate. Uncertainty of the climate change projections, as characterized by the spread among the ensemble future climate simulations, is relatively small for the basin mean snowpack and runoff, but increases in smaller watersheds, especially in the transient snow zone, and associated with extreme events. This emphasizes the importance of characterizing uncertainty through ensemble simulations.« less

Fostering Healthy Futures for Teens: Adaptation of an Evidence-Based Program

PubMed Central

Taussig, Heather; Weiler, Lindsey; Rhodes, Tara; Hambrick, Erin; Wertheimer, Robyn; Fireman, Orah; Combs, Melody

2015-01-01

Objective This article describes the process of adapting and implementing a complex, multicomponent intervention for a new population. Specifically, the article delineates the development and implementation of the Fostering Healthy Futures for Teens (FHF-T) program, which is an adaptation and extension of the Fostering Healthy Futures® (FHF) preventive intervention. FHF is a 9-month mentoring and skills group program for 9 to 11 year olds recently placed in foster care. Following the designation of FHF as an evidence-based intervention, there was increasing demand for the program. However, the narrow population for which FHF had demonstrated efficacy limited broader implementation of the existing intervention. FHF-T was designed to extend the reach of the program by adapting the FHF intervention for adolescents in the early years of high school who have a history of out-of-home care. Specifically, this adaptation recognizes key developmental differences between preadolescent and adolescent populations. Method After designing a program model and adapting the program components, the FHF-T mentoring program was implemented with 42 youth over 2 program years. Results Of the teens who were offered the program, 75% chose to enroll, and 88% of those graduated 9 months later. Although the program evidenced high rates of uptake and participant satisfaction, some unexpected challenges were encountered that will need to be addressed in future iterations of the program. Conclusions Too often program adaptations are made without careful consideration of important contextual issues, and too infrequently, these adapted programs are studied. Our process of program adaptation with rigorous measurement of program implementation provides a useful model for other evidence-based programs seeking thoughtful adaptation. PMID:27019678

Adrenal steroidogenesis after B lymphocyte depletion therapy in new-onset Addison's disease.

PubMed

Pearce, Simon H S; Mitchell, Anna L; Bennett, Stuart; King, Phil; Chandran, Sukesh; Nag, Sath; Chen, Shu; Smith, Bernard Rees; Isaacs, John D; Vaidya, Bijay

2012-10-01

A diagnosis of Addison's disease means lifelong dependence on daily glucocorticoid and mineralocorticoid therapy and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality as well as a risk of unexpected adrenal crisis. The objective of the study was to determine whether immunomodulatory therapy at an early stage of autoimmune Addison's disease could lead to preservation or improvement in adrenal steroidogenesis. This was an open-label, pilot study of B lymphocyte depletion therapy in new-onset idiopathic primary adrenal failure. Doses of iv rituximab (1 g) were given on d 1 and 15, after pretreatment with 125 mg iv methylprednisolone. Six patients (aged 17-47 yr; four females) were treated within 4 wk of the first diagnosis of idiopathic primary adrenal failure. Dynamic testing of adrenal function was performed every 3 months for at least 12 months. Serum cortisol levels declined rapidly and were less than 100 nmol/liter (3.6 μg/dl) in all patients by 3 months after B lymphocyte depletion. Serum cortisol and aldosterone concentrations remained low in five of the six patients throughout the follow-up period. However, a single patient had sustained improvement in both serum cortisol [peak 434 nmol/liter (15.7 μg/dl)] and aldosterone [peak 434 pmol/liter (15.7 ng/dl)] secretion. This patient was able to discontinue steroid medications 15 months after therapy and remains well, with improving serum cortisol levels 27 months after therapy. New-onset autoimmune Addison's disease should be considered as a potentially reversible condition in some patients. Future studies of immunomodulation in autoimmune Addison's disease may be warranted.

Sexual functioning among early post-treatment breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Avis, Nancy E; Johnson, Aimee; Canzona, Mollie Rose; Levine, Beverly J

2018-02-17

This study aims (1) to estimate percentages of partnered women who are sexually active over the first 2 years post-breast cancer diagnosis; (2) to identify factors related to sexual inactivity; and (3) to evaluate separately, among both sexually active and inactive survivors, the relation between sexual problems and treatment-related variables, symptoms, and psychosocial factors. Longitudinal observational study of breast cancer survivors recruited within 8 months of cancer diagnosis and followed for 18 months. The main outcome measures were (1) being sexually active/inactive in the past month and (2) sexual problems assessed with the four-item sexual problem domain of the Quality of Life in Adult Cancer Survivors (QLACS) scale. At baseline, 52.4% of women reported being sexually active in the past month. This percentage increased to 60.7% 18 months later. In multivariable repeated-measures analyses, age, past chemotherapy, depressive symptoms, and lower perceived attractiveness were related to inactivity. Sexually inactive women reported more problems on the QLACS than sexually active women. In stratified multivariable analyses, depressive symptoms were related to greater sexual problems for both sexually active and inactive women, as was vaginal dryness. Among the sexually active women, younger age at diagnosis, less illness intrusiveness, and lower perceived attractiveness were related to more problems. Research has shown that sexual functioning/sexual health are key aspects of quality of life for many cancer survivors, and are often not addressed by health care providers. Future studies should examine how such topics are handled by clinicians in their interactions with survivors.

Management of advanced ovarian cancer in South West Wales - a comparison between primary debulking surgery and primary chemotherapy treatment strategies in an unselected, consecutive patient cohort.

PubMed

Drews, F; Bertelli, G; Lutchman-Singh, K

2017-08-01

This study represents the first reported outcomes for patients with advanced ovarian cancer (AOC) in South-West Wales undergoing treatment with primary debulking surgery or primary chemotherapy respectively. This is a retrospective study of consecutive, unselected patients with advanced ovarian, fallopian tube or primary peritoneal cancer (FIGO III/IV) presenting to a regional cancer centre between October 2007 and October 2014. Patients were identified from Welsh Cancer Services records and relevant data was extracted from electronic National Health Service (NHS) databases. Main outcome measures were median overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS) and perioperative adverse events. Hazard ratio estimation was carried out with Cox Regression analysis and survival determined by Kaplan-Meier plots. Of 220 women with AOC, 32.3% underwent primary debulking surgery (PDS) and 67.7% primary chemotherapy and interval debulking (PCT-IDS). Patients were often elderly (median age 67 years) with a poor performance status (26.5% PS >1). Complete cytoreduction (0cm residual) was achieved in 32.4% of patients in the PDS group and in 50.0% of patients undergoing IDS. Median OS for all patients was 21.9 months (PDS: 27.0 and PCT-IDS: 19.2 months; p >0.05) and median PFS was 13.1 months (PDS: 14.3 months and PCT-IDS: 13.0 months; p >0.05). Median overall and progression free survival for patients achieving complete cytoreduction were 48.0 and 23.2 months respectively in the PDS group and 35.4 months and 18.6 months in the IDS group (p >0.05). This retrospective study of an unselected, consecutive cohort of women with AOC in South West Wales shows comparable survival outcomes with recently published trials, despite the relatively advanced age and poor performance status of our patient cohort. Over the seven-year study period, our data also demonstrated a non-significant trend towards improved survival following primary surgery in patients who achieved maximal cytoreduction. Our future aim therefore is to examine and develop the role of extended surgery in these patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

2013-01-01

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

Predictive value of 3-month lumbar discectomy outcomes in the NeuroPoint-SD Registry.

PubMed

Whitmore, Robert G; Curran, Jill N; Ali, Zarina S; Mummaneni, Praveen V; Shaffrey, Christopher I; Heary, Robert F; Kaiser, Michael G; Asher, Anthony L; Malhotra, Neil R; Cheng, Joseph S; Hurlbert, John; Smith, Justin S; Magge, Subu N; Steinmetz, Michael P; Resnick, Daniel K; Ghogawala, Zoher

2015-10-01

The authors have established a multicenter registry to assess the efficacy and costs of common lumbar spinal procedures using prospectively collected outcomes. Collection of these data requires an extensive commitment of resources from each site. The aim of this study was to determine whether outcomes data from shorter-interval follow-up could be used to accurately estimate long-term outcome following lumbar discectomy. An observational prospective cohort study was completed at 13 academic and community sites. Patients undergoing single-level lumbar discectomy for treatment of disc herniation were included. SF-36 and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) data were obtained preoperatively and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) data were calculated using SF-6D utility scores. Correlations among outcomes at each follow-up time point were tested using the Spearman rank correlation test. One hundred forty-eight patients were enrolled over 1 year. Their mean age was 46 years (49% female). Eleven patients (7.4%) required a reoperation by 1 year postoperatively. The overall 1-year follow-up rate was 80.4%. Lumbar discectomy was associated with significant improvements in ODI and SF-36 scores (p < 0.0001) and with a gain of 0.246 QALYs over the 1-year study period. The greatest gain occurred between baseline and 3-month follow-up and was significantly greater than improvements obtained between 3 and 6 months or 6 months and 1 year(p < 0.001). Correlations between 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year outcomes were similar, suggesting that 3-month data may be used to accurately estimate 1-year outcomes for patients who do not require a reoperation. Patients who underwent reoperation had worse outcomes scores and nonsignificant correlations at all time points. This national spine registry demonstrated successful collection of high-quality outcomes data for spinal procedures in actual practice. Three-month outcome data may be used to accurately estimate outcome at future time points and may lower costs associated with registry data collection. This registry effort provides a practical foundation for the acquisition of outcome data following lumbar discectomy.

Anticipated affective consequences of physical activity adoption and maintenance.

PubMed

Dunton, Genevieve Fridlund; Vaughan, Elaine

2008-11-01

The expected emotional consequences of future actions are thought to play an important role in health behavior change. This research examined whether anticipated affective consequences of success and failure vary across stages of physical activity change and differentially predict physical activity adoption as compared to maintenance. Using a prospective design over a 3-month period, a community sample of 329 healthy, middle-aged adults were assessed at 2 time points. Anticipated positive and negative emotions, stage of behavior change (precontemplation [PC], contemplation [C], preparation [P], action [A], maintenance [M]), and level of physical activity. At baseline, anticipated positive emotions were greater in C versus PC, whereas anticipated negative emotions were greater in M versus A and in M versus P. Higher anticipated positive but not negative emotions predicted physical activity adoption and maintenance after 3 months. Although the expected affective consequences of future success and failure differentiated among individuals in the early and later stages of physical activity change, respectively; only the anticipated affective consequences of success predicted future behavior.

Nonlinear interactions between the Amazon River basin and the Tropical North Atlantic at interannual timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro; Marwan, Norbert; Poveda, Germán; Kurths, Jürgen

2018-04-01

We study the physical processes involved in the potential influence of Amazon (AM) hydroclimatology over the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at interannual timescales, by analyzing time series of the precipitation index (P-E) over AM, as well as the surface atmospheric pressure gradient between both regions, and TNA SSTs. We use a recurrence joint probability based analysis that accounts for the lagged nonlinear dependency between time series, which also allows quantifying the statistical significance, based on a twin surrogates technique of the recurrence analysis. By means of such nonlinear dependence analysis we find that at interannual timescales AM hydrology influences future states of the TNA SSTs from 0 to 2 months later with a 90-95% statistical confidence. It also unveils the existence of two-way feedback mechanisms between the variables involved in the processes: (1) precipitation over AM leads the atmospheric pressure gradient between TNA and AM from 0 to 2 month lags, (2) the pressure gradient leads the trade zonal winds over the TNA from 0 to 3 months and from 7 to 12 months, (3) the zonal winds lead the SSTs from 0 to 3 months, and (4) the SSTs lead precipitation over AM by 1 month lag. The analyses were made for time series spanning from 1979 to 2008, and for extreme precipitation events in the AM during the years 1999, 2005, 2009 and 2010. We also evaluated the monthly mean conditions of the relevant variables during the extreme AM droughts of 1963, 1980, 1983, 1997, 1998, 2005, and 2010, and also during the floods of 1989, 1999, and 2009. Our results confirm that the Amazon River basin acts as a land surface-atmosphere bridge that links the Tropical Pacific and TNA SSTs at interannual timescales. The identified mutual interactions between TNA and AM are of paramount importance for a deeper understanding of AM hydroclimatology but also of a suite of oceanic and atmospheric phenomena over the TNA, including recently observed trends in SSTs, as well as future occurrences and impacts on tropical storms and hurricanes throughout the TNA region, but also on fires, droughts, deforestation and dieback of the tropical rain forest of the Amazon River basin.

Drought Prediction Site Specific and Regional up to Three Years in Advance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhler, G.; O'Brien, D. P.

2002-12-01

Dynamic Predictables has developed proprietary software that analyzes and predicts future climatic behavior based on past data. The programs employ both a regional thermodynamic model together with a unique predictive algorithm to achieve a high degree of prediction accuracy up to 36 months. The thermodynamic model was developed initially to explain the results of a study on global circulation models done at SUNY-Stony Brook by S. Hameed, R.G. Currie, and H. LaGrone (Int. Jour. Climatology, 15, pp.852-871, 1995). The authors pointed out that on a time scale of 2-70 months the spectrum of sea level pressure is dominated by the harmonics and subharmonics of the seasonal cycle and their combination tones. These oscillations are fundamental to an understanding of climatic variations on a sub-regional to continental basis. The oscillatory nature of these variations allows them to be used as broad based climate predictors. In addition, they can be subtracted from the data to yield residuals. The residuals are then analyzed to determine components that are predictable. The program then combines both the thermodynamic model results (the primary predictive model) with those from the residual data (the secondary model) to yield an estimate of the future behavior of the climatic variable. Spatial resolution is site specific or aggregated regional based upon appropriate length (45 years or more monthly data) and reasonable quality weather observation records. Most climate analysis has been based on monthly time-step data, but time scales on the order of days can be used. Oregon Climate Division 1 (Coastal) precipitation provides an example relating DynaPred's method to nature's observed elements in the early 2000s. The prediction's leading dynamic factors are the strong seasonal in the primary model combined with high secondary model contributions from planet Earth's Chandler Wobble (near 15 months) and what has been called the Quasi-Triennial Oscillation (QTO, near 36 months) in equatorial regions. Examples of regional aggregate and site-specific predictions previously made blind forward and publicly available (AASC Annual Meetings 1998-2002) will be shown. Certain climate dynamics features relevant to extrema prediction and specifically drought prediction will then be discussed. Time steps presented will be monthly. Climate variables examined are mean temperature and accumulated precipitation. NINO3 SST, interior continental and marine/continental transition area examples will be shown. http://www.dynamicpredictables.com

Randomized Controlled Pilot Trial of Yoga in Overweight and Obese Breast Cancer Survivors: Effects on Quality of Life and Anthropometric Measures

PubMed Central

Littman, Alyson J; Bertram, Lisa Cadmus; Ceballos, Rachel; Ulrich, Cornelia M; Ramaprasad, Jaya; McGregor, Bonnie; McTiernan, Anne

2011-01-01

PURPOSE To obtain estimates of time to recruit the study sample, retention, facility-based class attendance and home practice for a study of yoga in breast cancer survivors, and its efficacy on fatigue, quality of life (QOL), and weight change. METHODS Sixty-three post-treatment stage 0–III borderline overweight and obese (body mass index ≥ 24 kg/m2) breast cancer survivors were randomly assigned to a 6-month, facility- and home-based viniyoga intervention (n = 32) or a waitlist control group (n = 31). The yoga goal was 5 practices per week. Primary outcome measures were changes in self-reported QOL, fatigue, and weight from baseline to 6 months. Secondary outcomes included changes in waist and hip circumference. RESULTS It took 12 months to complete recruitment. Participants attended a mean of 19.6 classes and practiced at home a mean of 55.8 times during the 6-month period. At follow-up, 90% of participants completed questionnaires and 87% completed anthropometric measurements. QOL and fatigue improved to a greater extent among women in the yoga group relative to women in the control group, although no differences were statistically significant. Waist circumference decreased 3.1 cm (95% CI: −5.7, −0.4) more among women in the yoga compared with the control group, with no differences in weight change. CONCLUSIONS This study provides important information regarding recruitment, retention, and practice levels achieved during a 6-month, intensive yoga intervention in overweight and obese breast cancer survivors. Yoga may help decrease waist circumference and improve quality of life; future studies are needed to confirm these results. PMID:21207071

Infant Characteristics and Parental Engagement at the Transition to Parenthood

PubMed Central

Schoppe-Sullivan, Sarah J.; Kamp Dush, Claire M.

2015-01-01

Positive engagement activities support children's adaptive development and new parents are encouraged to be highly engaged with infants. Yet, fathers' engagement is widely understudied and maternal engagement quantity is frequently overlooked. Our study contributes to growing knowledge on associations between infant temperament and parental engagement by testing transactional and moderation models in a recent sample of first-time parents when infants were 3, 6, and 9 months old. Stringent longitudinal, reciprocal structural equation models partially confirmed an engagement "benefit". Mothers' engagement marginally contributed to their children's gains in effortful control from 3 to 6 months regardless of child gender. Further, mothers' engagement reduced infant negative affect from 6 to 9 months regardless of child gender. Mothers' ratings of infant negative affect were gendered; mothers' ratings of infant negative affect increases more from 3 to 6 months for boys. Fathers' engagement was contextually sensitive; child gender moderated the link between negative affect and engagement from 6 to 9 months, such that fathers became more engaged with boys whom they rated higher on negative affect; there was no effect for daughters. Finally, we found that effortful control moderated associations between negative affect and maternal engagement; mothers' engagement increases from 3 to 6 months were greater for children initially rated lower in effortful control. Implications for future research and parenting education and support services are discussed. PMID:25459796

Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal and Monthly Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Van den Dool, H. M.

2013-12-01

Since August 2011, the realtime seasonal forecasts of U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been made on 8th of each month by NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). During the first year, the participating models were NCEP/CFSv1&2, GFDL/CM2.2, NCAR/U.Miami/COLA/CCSM3, NASA/GEOS5, IRI/ ECHAM-a & ECHAM-f for the realtime NMME forecast. The Canadian Meteorological Center CanCM3 and CM4 replaced the CFSv1 and IRI's models in the second year. The NMME team at CPC collects three variables, including precipitation, 2-meter temperature and sea surface temperature from each modeling center on a 1x1 global grid, removes systematic errors, makes the grand ensemble mean with equal weight for each model and constructs a probability forecast with equal weight for each member. The team then provides the NMME forecast to the operational CPC forecaster responsible for the seasonal and monthly outlook each month. Verification of the seasonal and monthly prediction from NMME is conducted by calculating the anomaly correlation (AC) from the 30-year hindcasts (1982-2011) of individual model and NMME ensemble. The motivation of this study is to provide skill benchmarks for future improvements of the NMME seasonal and monthly prediction system. The experimental (Phase I) stage of the project already supplies routine guidance to users of the NMME forecasts.

The impact of colorectal cancer and self-efficacy beliefs on work ability and employment status: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Bains, M; Munir, F; Yarker, J; Bowley, D; Thomas, A; Armitage, N; Steward, W

2012-09-01

We examined how colorectal cancer patients' treatment and symptom management impacted perceptions of work ability and subsequent work decisions. Fifty patients completed questionnaires at baseline (post-surgery/pretreatment), 3 months and 6 months. Questionnaires assessed fatigue, depression, quality-of-life (QoL), cancer self-efficacy, job self-efficacy (JSE) and work ability. Factors related to perceived work ability were occupation (β= 0.31, P= 0.0005) and QoL (β= 0.42, P= 0.01) at baseline, treatment type (β=-0.19, P= 0.05) at 3 months, and JSE at 3 months (β= 0.57, P= 0.0005) and 6 months (β= 0.50, P= 0.006). Factors related to being on sick leave were lower levels of JSE (OR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.17-4.13) at baseline and being employed in a manual occupation (OR = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.00-0.86), and perceived work ability (OR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.00-12.80) at 6 months. Along with self-assessed work ability at baseline (β= 0.67, P= 0.0005), receiving chemotherapy or a combination of treatments (β=-0.24, P= 0.05) were the strongest predictors of poorer perceptions of follow-up work ability. Self-efficacy beliefs may add to understanding and should be considered in future research. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Assessing the influence of climate change on flooding hazards following tropical cyclone events in the Southeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Monica Helen

Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20% more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the Southeast United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model flow along these rivers from 1998-2014 with 20% more precipitation during tropical cyclones. The results of this study show that an increase in tropical cyclone precipitation due to future climate change may increase peak flows at the mouths of these Southeast rivers by ˜7-18%. Most tropical cyclones that impact these river basins occur during the low discharge season, and thus rarely produce flooding conditions at their mouths. An extension of the current hurricane season of June-November, due to global climate warming, could encroach upon the wet season in these basins and lead to increased flooding. On average, this analysis shows that an extension of the hurricane season to May-December increased flooding susceptibility by 63% for the rivers analyzed in this study. That is, 4-6 more days per year likely would have been above bankfull discharge if an average tropical cyclone had occurred any day (based on 1998-2014 data) in the months May-December than in the current hurricane season months of June-November. More research is needed on the mechanisms and processes involved in the water balance of the four rivers analyzed in this study, and others in the Southeast United States, and how this is likely to change in the near future with global climate warming.

Executive function and falls in older adults: new findings from a five-year prospective study link fall risk to cognition.

PubMed

Mirelman, Anat; Herman, Talia; Brozgol, Marina; Dorfman, Moran; Sprecher, Elliot; Schweiger, Avraham; Giladi, Nir; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M

2012-01-01

Recent findings suggest that executive function (EF) plays a critical role in the regulation of gait in older adults, especially under complex and challenging conditions, and that EF deficits may, therefore, contribute to fall risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate if reduced EF is a risk factor for future falls over the course of 5 years of follow-up. Secondary objectives were to assess whether single and dual task walking abilities, an alternative window into EF, were associated with fall risk. We longitudinally followed 256 community-living older adults (age: 76.4±4.5 yrs; 61% women) who were dementia free and had good mobility upon entrance into the study. At baseline, a computerized cognitive battery generated an index of EF, attention, a closely related construct, and other cognitive domains. Gait was assessed during single and dual task conditions. Falls data were collected prospectively using monthly calendars. Negative binomial regression quantified risk ratios (RR). After adjusting for age, gender and the number of falls in the year prior to the study, only the EF index (RR: .85; CI: .74-.98, p = .021), the attention index (RR: .84; CI: .75-.94, p = .002) and dual tasking gait variability (RR: 1.11; CI: 1.01-1.23; p = .027) were associated with future fall risk. Other cognitive function measures were not related to falls. Survival analyses indicated that subjects with the lowest EF scores were more likely to fall sooner and more likely to experience multiple falls during the 66 months of follow-up (p<0.02). These findings demonstrate that among community-living older adults, the risk of future falls was predicted by performance on EF and attention tests conducted 5 years earlier. The present results link falls among older adults to cognition, indicating that screening EF will likely enhance fall risk assessment, and that treatment of EF may reduce fall risk.

Motherese, affect, and vocabulary development: dyadic communicative interactions in infants and toddlers.

PubMed

Dave, Shruti; Mastergeorge, Ann M; Olswang, Lesley B

2018-07-01

Responsive parental communication during an infant's first year has been positively associated with later language outcomes. This study explores responsivity in mother-infant communication by modeling how change in guiding language between 7 and 11 months influences toddler vocabulary development. In a group of 32 mother-child dyads, change in early maternal guiding language positively predicted child language outcomes measured at 18 and 24 months. In contrast, a number of other linguistic variables - including total utterances and non-guiding language - did not correlate with toddler vocabulary development, suggesting a critical role of responsive change in infant-directed communication. We further assessed whether maternal affect during early communication influenced toddler vocabulary outcomes, finding that dominant affect during early mother-infant communications correlated to lower child language outcomes. These findings provide evidence that responsive parenting should not only be assessed longitudinally, but unique contributions of language and affect should also be concurrently considered in future study.

Parent-Child Positive Touch: Gender, Age, and Task Differences.

PubMed

Aznar, Ana; Tenenbaum, Harriet R

2016-01-01

This study examined gender, age, and task differences in positive touch and physical proximity during mother-child and father-child conversations. Sixty-five Spanish mothers and fathers and their 4- ( M  = 53.50 months, SD  = 3.54) and 6-year-old ( M  = 77.07 months, SD  = 3.94) children participated in this study. Positive touch was examined during a play-related storytelling task and a reminiscence task (conversation about past emotions). Fathers touched their children positively more frequently during the play-related storytelling task than did mothers. Both mothers and fathers were in closer proximity to their 6-year-olds than their 4-year-olds. Mothers and fathers touched their children positively more frequently when reminiscing than when playing. Finally, 6-year-olds remained closer to their parents than did 4-year-olds. Implications of these findings for future research on children's socioemotional development are discussed.

Keeping in touch. Cell phone use in people with schizophrenia disorders.

PubMed

Beebe, Lora Humphrey; Smith, Kathlene; Bennett, Chris; Bentley, Katherine; Walters, Amanda B; Hancock, Beverly; Farmer, Shirley Y; Earle, Karen; White, Sheila

2010-04-01

There is limited research exploring telephone intervention for psychiatric clients; no studies specific to cell phone use have been conducted. This pilot study examined the feasibility and acceptability of cell phone use in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs). Ten outpatients with SSDs were provided with previously activated cell phones for 5 months; trained nurses contacted participants weekly. Seven participants completed the 5-month follow-up period. A minority of participants reported difficulty retrieving messages and answering or charging their phone. These preliminary findings indicate the majority of individuals with SSDs are willing to use this method of communication and are able to do so with few problems. Possible barriers to the use of cell phones with this group include lifestyle factors and poor decision making. Future investigations should examine the use of cell phone access to foster personal safety, gain a sense of connectedness to others, and enhance quality of life.

Treating sexual offenders with learning disabilities in the community: a critical review.

PubMed

Craig, Leam A; Stringer, Ian; Moss, Tania

2006-08-01

This study offers a critical review of a treatment group for sexual offenders with learning disabilities. The participants were diverted from criminal proceedings due to their level of cognitive functioning and attended a 7-month treatment program comprising of four main components: sex education, cognitive distortions, offending cycle, and relapse prevention. A number of psychometric assessments were administered immediately before and after intervention. Although no significant differences were found in attitudes toward sexual offending following treatment, the trend was for improvements in sex knowledge and honesty of sexual interest. Improvements in socialization skills (leisure time and interpersonal skills) were significant. No further incidents of sexual offending have been reported during a 12-month follow-up. A number of explanations for the nonsignificant improvement in attitudes are considered and recommendations for future treatment evaluation studies are made. The development of specific questionnaires and treatment programs for sexual offenders with learning disabilities is discussed.

Predicting Improvement After a Bystander Program for the Prevention of Sexual and Dating Violence.

PubMed

Hines, Denise A; Palm Reed, Kathleen M

2015-07-01

Although evidence suggests that bystander prevention programs are promising interventions for decreasing sexual violence and dating violence on college campuses, there have been no studies to date evaluating moderators of bystander program effectiveness. The current study evaluates whether different demographic characteristics, attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors at pretest predict change over a 6-month follow-up for students who participated in a bystander prevention program. Participants in the three assessments (pretest, posttest, 6-month follow-up) included 296 college students who were mandated to attend a bystander program during their first year orientation. Analyses showed that with few exceptions, the bystander program worked best for students who were most at risk given their pretest demographics and levels of attitudes condoning dating violence and sexual violence, bystander efficacy, and bystander behaviors. Results are discussed in terms of suggestions for future research. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

PubMed

Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

2017-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents

PubMed Central

Letourneau, Elizabeth J.; McCart, Michael R.; Sheidow, Ashli J.; Mauro, Pia M.

2016-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N = 45) or usual services (US; N = 60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. PMID:27629581

Monthly Fluctuations of Insomnia Symptoms in a Population-Based Sample

PubMed Central

Morin, Charles M.; LeBlanc, M.; Ivers, H.; Bélanger, L.; Mérette, Chantal; Savard, Josée; Jarrin, Denise C.

2014-01-01

Study Objectives: To document the monthly changes in sleep/insomnia status over a 12-month period; to determine the optimal time intervals to reliably capture new incident cases and recurrent episodes of insomnia and the likelihood of its persistence over time. Design: Participants were 100 adults (mean age = 49.9 years; 66% women) randomly selected from a larger population-based sample enrolled in a longitudinal study of the natural history of insomnia. They completed 12 monthly telephone interviews assessing insomnia, use of sleep aids, stressful life events, and physical and mental health problems in the previous month. A total of 1,125 interviews of a potential 1,200 were completed. Based on data collected at each assessment, participants were classified into one of three subgroups: good sleepers, insomnia symptoms, and insomnia syndrome. Results: At baseline, 42 participants were classified as good sleepers, 34 met criteria for insomnia symptoms, and 24 for an insomnia syndrome. There were significant fluctuations of insomnia over time, with 66% of the participants changing sleep status at least once over the 12 monthly assessments (51.5% for good sleepers, 59.5% for insomnia syndrome, and 93.4% for insomnia symptoms). Changes of status were more frequent among individuals with insomnia symptoms at baseline (mean = 3.46, SD = 2.36) than among those initially classified as good sleepers (mean = 2.12, SD = 2.70). Among the subgroup with insomnia symptoms at baseline, 88.3% reported improved sleep (i.e., became good sleepers) at least once over the 12 monthly assessments compared to 27.7% whose sleep worsened (i.e., met criteria for an insomnia syndrome) during the same period. Among individuals classified as good sleepers at baseline, risks of developing insomnia symptoms and syndrome over the subsequent months were, respectively, 48.6% and 14.5%. Monthly assessment over an interval of 6 months was found most reliable to estimate incidence rates, while an interval of 3 months proved the most reliable for defining chronic insomnia. Conclusions: Monthly assessment of insomnia and sleep patterns revealed significant variability over the course of a 12-month period. These findings highlight the importance for future epidemiological studies of conducting repeated assessment at shorter than the typical yearly interval in order to reliably capture the natural course of insomnia over time. Citation: Morin CM; LeBlanc M; Ivers H; Bélanger L; Mérette C; Savard J; Jarrin DC. Monthly fluctuations of insomnia symptoms in a population-based sample. SLEEP 2014;37(2):319-326. PMID:24497660

Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: The Role and Utility of Long Range, Long Duration Traverses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Stephen J. (Editor); Voels, Stephen A. (Editor)

2012-01-01

Topics covered include: Antarctic Exploration Parallels for Future Human Planetary Exploration: Science Operations Lessons Learned, Planning, and Equipment Capabilities for Long Range, Long Duration Traverses; Parallels Between Antarctic Travel in 1950 and Planetary Travel in 2050 (to Accompany Notes on "The Norwegian British-Swedish Antarctic Expedition 1949-52"); My IGY in Antarctica; Short Trips and a Traverse; Geologic Traverse Planning for Apollo Missions; Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS) Traverse Planning; Science Traverses in the Canadian High Arctic; NOR-USA Scientific Traverse of East Antarctica: Science and Logistics on a Three-Month Expedition Across Antarctica's Farthest Frontier; A Notional Example of Understanding Human Exploration Traverses on the Lunar Surface; and The Princess Elisabeth Station.

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement April 2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Early Attachment Organization with Both Parents and Future Behavior Problems: From Infancy to Middle Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kochanska, Grazyna; Kim, Sanghag

2013-01-01

Links between children's attachment security with mothers and fathers, assessed in Strange Situation with each parent at 15 months ("N" = 101), and their future behavior problems were examined. Mothers and fathers rated children's behavior problems, and children reported their own behavior problems at age 8 ("N" = 86). Teachers…

Defense Acquisitions: Future Aerostat and Airship Investment Decisions Drive Oversight and Coordination Needs

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

earlier, LEMV experienced schedule delays of at least 10 months, largely rooted in technical, design, and engineering problems in scaling up the airship ...had informal coordination with the Blue Devil Block 2 effort in the past. For example, originally both airships had several diesel engine ...DEFENSE ACQUISITIONS Future Aerostat and Airship Investment Decisions Drive Oversight and Coordination Needs

Resting-state functional connectivity predicts longitudinal pain symptom change in urologic chronic pelvic pain syndrome: a MAPP network study.

PubMed

Kutch, Jason J; Labus, Jennifer S; Harris, Richard E; Martucci, Katherine T; Farmer, Melissa A; Fenske, Sonja; Fling, Connor; Ichesco, Eric; Peltier, Scott; Petre, Bogdan; Guo, Wensheng; Hou, Xiaoling; Stephens, Alisa J; Mullins, Chris; Clauw, Daniel J; Mackey, Sean C; Apkarian, A Vania; Landis, J Richard; Mayer, Emeran A

2017-06-01

Chronic pain symptoms often change over time, even in individuals who have had symptoms for years. Studying biological factors that predict trends in symptom change in chronic pain may uncover novel pathophysiological mechanisms and potential therapeutic targets. In this study, we investigated whether brain functional connectivity measures obtained from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging at baseline can predict longitudinal symptom change (3, 6, and 12 months after scan) in urologic chronic pelvic pain syndrome. We studied 52 individuals with urologic chronic pelvic pain syndrome (34 women, 18 men) who had baseline neuroimaging followed by symptom tracking every 2 weeks for 1 year as part of the Multidisciplinary Approach to the Study of Chronic Pelvic Pain (MAPP) Research Network study. We found that brain functional connectivity can make a significant prediction of short-term (3 month) pain reduction with 73.1% accuracy (69.2% sensitivity and 75.0% precision). In addition, we found that the brain regions with greatest contribution to the classification were preferentially aligned with the left frontoparietal network. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging measures seemed to be less informative about 6- or 12-month symptom change. Our study provides the first evidence that future trends in symptom change in patients in a state of chronic pain may be linked to functional connectivity within specific brain networks.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

PubMed

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaBeau, Meredith B.; Mayer, Alex S.; Griffis, Veronica; Watkins, David Jr.; Robertson, Dale M.; Gyawali, Rabi

2015-01-01

In this work, we hypothesize that phosphorus (P) concentrations in streams vary seasonally and with streamflow and that it is important to incorporate this variation when predicting changes in P loading associated with climate change. Our study area includes 14 watersheds with a range of land uses throughout the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. We develop annual seasonal load-discharge regression models for each watershed and apply these models with simulated discharges generated for future climate scenarios to simulate future P loading patterns for two periods: 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. We utilize output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 downscaled climate change projections that are input into the Large Basin Runoff Model to generate future discharge scenarios, which are in turn used as inputs to the seasonal P load regression models. In almost all cases, the seasonal load-discharge models match observed loads better than the annual models. Results using the seasonal models show that the concurrence of nonlinearity in the load-discharge model and changes in high discharges in the spring months leads to the most significant changes in P loading for selected tributaries under future climate projections. These results emphasize the importance of using seasonal models to understand the effects of future climate change on nutrient loads.

Study nonlinear dynamics of stratospheric ozone concentration at Pakistan Terrestrial region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jan, Bulbul; Zai, Muhammad Ayub Khan Yousuf; Afradi, Faisal Khan; Aziz, Zohaib

2018-03-01

This study investigates the nonlinear dynamics of the stratospheric ozone layer at Pakistan atmospheric region. Ozone considered now the most important issue in the world because of its diverse effects on earth biosphere, including human health, ecosystem, marine life, agriculture yield and climate change. Therefore, this paper deals with total monthly time series data of stratospheric ozone over the Pakistan atmospheric region from 1970 to 2013. Two approaches, basic statistical analysis and Fractal dimension (D) have adapted to study the nature of nonlinear dynamics of stratospheric ozone level. Results obtained from this research have shown that the Hurst exponent values of both methods of fractal dimension revealed an anti-persistent behavior (negatively correlated), i.e. decreasing trend for all lags and Rescaled range analysis is more appropriate as compared to Detrended fluctuation analysis. For seasonal time series all month follows an anti-persistent behavior except in the month of November which shown persistence behavior i.e. time series is an independent and increasing trend. The normality test statistics also confirmed the nonlinear behavior of ozone and the rejection of hypothesis indicates the strong evidence of the complexity of data. This study will be useful to the researchers working in the same field in the future to verify the complex nature of stratospheric ozone.

Genome-wide association study of response to cognitive-behavioural therapy in children with anxiety disorders.

PubMed

Coleman, Jonathan R I; Lester, Kathryn J; Keers, Robert; Roberts, Susanna; Curtis, Charles; Arendt, Kristian; Bögels, Susan; Cooper, Peter; Creswell, Cathy; Dalgleish, Tim; Hartman, Catharina A; Heiervang, Einar R; Hötzel, Katrin; Hudson, Jennifer L; In-Albon, Tina; Lavallee, Kristen; Lyneham, Heidi J; Marin, Carla E; Meiser-Stedman, Richard; Morris, Talia; Nauta, Maaike H; Rapee, Ronald M; Schneider, Silvia; Schneider, Sophie C; Silverman, Wendy K; Thastum, Mikael; Thirlwall, Kerstin; Waite, Polly; Wergeland, Gro Janne; Breen, Gerome; Eley, Thalia C

2016-09-01

Anxiety disorders are common, and cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) is a first-line treatment. Candidate gene studies have suggested a genetic basis to treatment response, but findings have been inconsistent. To perform the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) of psychological treatment response in children with anxiety disorders (n = 980). Presence and severity of anxiety was assessed using semi-structured interview at baseline, on completion of treatment (post-treatment), and 3 to 12 months after treatment completion (follow-up). DNA was genotyped using the Illumina Human Core Exome-12v1.0 array. Linear mixed models were used to test associations between genetic variants and response (change in symptom severity) immediately post-treatment and at 6-month follow-up. No variants passed a genome-wide significance threshold (P = 5 × 10(-8)) in either analysis. Four variants met criteria for suggestive significance (P<5 × 10(-6)) in association with response post-treatment, and three variants in the 6-month follow-up analysis. This is the first genome-wide therapygenetic study. It suggests no common variants of very high effect underlie response to CBT. Future investigations should maximise power to detect single-variant and polygenic effects by using larger, more homogeneous cohorts. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

Long-Term Disease Dynamics for a Specialized Parasite of Ant Societies: A Field Study

PubMed Central

Loreto, Raquel G.; Elliot, Simon L.; Freitas, Mayara L. R.; Pereira, Thairine M.; Hughes, David P.

2014-01-01

Many studies have investigated how social insects behave when a parasite is introduced into their colonies. These studies have been conducted in the laboratory, and we still have a limited understanding of the dynamics of ant-parasite interactions under natural conditions. Here we consider a specialized parasite of ant societies (Ophiocordyceps camponoti-rufipedis infecting Camponotus rufipes) within a rainforest. We first established that the parasite is unable to develop to transmission stage when introduced within the host nest. Secondly, we surveyed all colonies in the studied area and recorded 100% prevalence at the colony level (all colonies were infected). Finally, we conducted a long-term detailed census of parasite pressure, by mapping the position of infected dead ants and foraging trails (future hosts) in the immediate vicinity of the colonies over 20 months. We report new dead infected ants for all the months we conducted the census – at an average of 14.5 cadavers/month/colony. Based on the low infection rate, the absence of colony collapse or complete recovery of the colonies, we suggest that this parasite represents a chronic infection in the ant societies. We also proposed a “terminal host model of transmission” that links the age-related polyethism to the persistence of a parasitic infection. PMID:25133749

Genome-wide association study of response to cognitive–behavioural therapy in children with anxiety disorders

PubMed Central

Coleman, Jonathan R. I.; Lester, Kathryn J.; Keers, Robert; Roberts, Susanna; Curtis, Charles; Arendt, Kristian; Bögels, Susan; Cooper, Peter; Creswell, Cathy; Dalgleish, Tim; Hartman, Catharina A.; Heiervang, Einar R.; Hötzel, Katrin; Hudson, Jennifer L.; In-Albon, Tina; Lavallee, Kristen; Lyneham, Heidi J.; Marin, Carla E.; Meiser-Stedman, Richard; Morris, Talia; Nauta, Maaike H.; Rapee, Ronald M.; Schneider, Silvia; Schneider, Sophie C.; Silverman, Wendy K.; Thastum, Mikael; Thirlwall, Kerstin; Waite, Polly; Wergeland, Gro Janne; Breen, Gerome; Eley, Thalia C.

2016-01-01

Background Anxiety disorders are common, and cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) is a first-line treatment. Candidate gene studies have suggested a genetic basis to treatment response, but findings have been inconsistent. Aims To perform the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) of psychological treatment response in children with anxiety disorders (n = 980). Method Presence and severity of anxiety was assessed using semi-structured interview at baseline, on completion of treatment (post-treatment), and 3 to 12 months after treatment completion (follow-up). DNA was genotyped using the Illumina Human Core Exome-12v1.0 array. Linear mixed models were used to test associations between genetic variants and response (change in symptom severity) immediately post-treatment and at 6-month follow-up. Results No variants passed a genome-wide significance threshold (P = 5 × 10−8) in either analysis. Four variants met criteria for suggestive significance (P<5 × 10−6) in association with response post-treatment, and three variants in the 6-month follow-up analysis. Conclusions This is the first genome-wide therapygenetic study. It suggests no common variants of very high effect underlie response to CBT. Future investigations should maximise power to detect single-variant and polygenic effects by using larger, more homogeneous cohorts. PMID:26989097

Infant discrimination of humanoid robots

PubMed Central

Matsuda, Goh; Ishiguro, Hiroshi; Hiraki, Kazuo

2015-01-01

Recently, extremely humanlike robots called “androids” have been developed, some of which are already being used in the field of entertainment. In the context of psychological studies, androids are expected to be used in the future as fully controllable human stimuli to investigate human nature. In this study, we used an android to examine infant discrimination ability between human beings and non-human agents. Participants (N = 42 infants) were assigned to three groups based on their age, i.e., 6- to 8-month-olds, 9- to 11-month-olds, and 12- to 14-month-olds, and took part in a preferential looking paradigm. Of three types of agents involved in the paradigm—a human, an android modeled on the human, and a mechanical-looking robot made from the android—two at a time were presented side-by-side as they performed a grasping action. Infants’ looking behavior was measured using an eye tracking system, and the amount of time spent focusing on each of three areas of interest (face, goal, and body) was analyzed. Results showed that all age groups predominantly looked at the robot and at the face area, and that infants aged over 9 months watched the goal area for longer than the body area. There was no difference in looking times and areas focused on between the human and the android. These findings suggest that 6- to 14-month-olds are unable to discriminate between the human and the android, although they can distinguish the mechanical robot from the human. PMID:26441772

Effect of a transactional model education program on coping effectiveness in women with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Sanaeinasab, Hormoz; Saffari, Mohsen; Hashempour, Mahrokh; Karimi Zarchi, Ali-Akbar; Alghamdi, Waleed A; Koenig, Harold G

2017-10-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic and progressive disease that causes stress due to its unpredictability and lack of definitive treatments. This study examined the effects of an educational program using a transactional model to help women with MS cope with their disease. In a randomized clinical trial, 80 female patients from the MS Society of Iran were randomized to the intervention ( n  = 40) or a control group ( n  = 40). Outcomes were assessed using Cohen's Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) and the Jalowiec Coping Scale (JCS), which were completed by both groups at baseline, 1 month, and 3 months after the intervention. The intervention consisted of six educational sessions administered over 2 months based on a transactional model. The data were analyzed using repeated measures ANOVA. Average PSS scores decreased significantly over time in the intervention group, while increasing in the control group. Between-group differences were significant at both 1-month and 3-month follow-up ( p  < .001). Both problem-focused and emotion-focused coping styles improved over time in use and effectiveness in the intervention group, whereas little or no change occurred in these coping behaviors in the control group. The transactional model-based education program tested here was successful in reducing stress levels and increasing healthy coping styles in women with MS. If these findings are replicated in future studies, widespread adoption of this program may help women with MS cope more successfully with their disease.

Predictability and extended-range prognosis in natural hazard risk mitigation process: A case study over west Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.

2014-05-01

Natural hazards pose an increasing threat to society and new innovative techniques or methodologies are necessary to be developed, in order to enhance the risk mitigation process in nowadays. It is commonly accepted that disaster risk reduction is a vital key for future successful economic and social development. The systematic improvement accuracy of extended-range prognosis products, relating with monthly and seasonal predictability, introduced them as a new essential link in risk mitigation procedure. Aiming at decreasing the risk, this paper presents the use of seasonal and monthly forecasting process that was tested over west Greece from September to December, 2013. During that season significant severe weather events occurred, causing significant impact to the local society (severe storms/rainfalls, hail, flash floods, etc). Seasonal and monthly forecasting products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) depicted, with probabilities stratified by terciles, areas of Greece where significant weather may occur. As atmospheric natural hazard early warning systems are able to deliver warnings up to 72 hours in advance, this study illustrates that extended-range prognosis could be introduced as a new technique in risk mitigation. Seasonal and monthly forecast products could highlight extended areas where severe weather events may occur in one month lead time. In addition, a risk mitigation procedure, that extended prognosis products are adopted, is also presented providing useful time to preparedness process at regional administration level.

The entanglement between relapse and posttreatment criminal justice involvement.

PubMed

Kopak, Albert M; Haugh, Stephanie; Hoffmann, Norman G

2016-09-01

Research has established a connection between substance use and criminal activity, but much less is known about the association between posttreatment relapse and related contact with the criminal justice system. The current study was designed to elucidate this relationship by examining the long-term effects of relapse on arrest. The study also investigated the probability of relapse into substance use as it followed an arrest. Data from 5,822 adults who participated in the Comprehensive Assessment and Treatment Outcome Research (CATOR) system were analyzed. This prospective longitudinal research design included 0-6, 6-12, 12-18, and 18-24 month follow-up data. A series of logistic regression analyses indicated that relapse was associated with posttreatment arrest within the observed follow-up period, but did not significantly influence the likelihood of arrest in future follow-up periods. In comparison, posttreatment arrest in the 6-12 month follow-up period had lasting effects for relapse to substance use in the 12-18 and 18-24 month periods. Arrest in the 0-6 month posttreatment period was also associated with increased risk for relapse in the 18-24 month period. Given the evidence that demonstrated within follow-up period associations between relapse and arrest, relapse prevention is critical to preventing contact with the criminal justice system. In addition, the lasting impact of an arrest must be mitigated to maintain posttreatment recovery from substance use for adults who come into contact with the criminal justice system.

Concordance of opinions between patients and physicians and their relationship with symptomatic control and future risk in patients with moderate-severe asthma.

PubMed

Crespo-Lessmann, Astrid; Plaza, Vicente; González-Barcala, Francisco-Javier; Fernández-Sánchez, Toni; Sastre, Joaquín

2017-01-01

Differences between the opinions of patients and physicians on the impact of asthma are common. We hypothesised that patient-physician discordance may negatively affect asthma outcome. A total of 2902 patients (61% women, mean age 47 years) with moderate-severe asthma and 231 physicians participated in a prospective study. At the baseline visit, data on demographics, clinical variables, degree of asthma control according to the Asthma Control Test (ACT), basic spirometry and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) were collected and an ad hoc questionnaire was completed that allowed the degree of concordance between doctors and patients to be assessed. A scheduled telephone call after 3 months was used to elicit the ACT score and the future risk of asthma. At the final visit at 6 months, the following data were recorded: ACT score, spirometry, HADS score and an ad hoc questionnaire to assess the agreement between the doctor and the patient. Changes in study variables according to patient-physician concordance or discordance were analysed. The rate of patient-physician discordance was 27.2%, with overestimation of disease impact by the physician in 12.3% and underestimation in 14.9%. Patient-physician opinion discordance, particularly in the case of physicians underestimating the impact of asthma, showed worse results with statistically significant differences in ACT score, a higher percentage of patients with poor asthma control and lower HADS scores. The need for hospital and emergency department admissions was also higher. Patient-physician opinion discordance may be contributing to lower symptomatic control and increased future risk, with a higher impact when physicians underestimate the impact of asthma on their patients.

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Haj, Adel E.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.

2016-01-01

Study regionEastern and central Montana.Study focusFish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period).New hydrological insights for the regionProjected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Math and Science Are America's Future. National Math and Science Initiative Annual Report, 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Math and Science Initiative, 2008

2008-01-01

This paper presents the annual report of the National Math and Science Initiative (NMSI) for 2008. Eighteen months ago, the National Math and Science Initiative did not exist. Today NMSI is helping lead the country forward in math and science. In just 18 months, NMSI has rolled out the first round of grants and has implemented programs in 14…

Future Performance Trend Indicators: A Current Value Approach to Human Resources Accounting. Report III. Multivariate Predictions of Organizational Performance Across Time.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pecorella, Patricia A.; Bowers, David G.

Multiple regression in a double cross-validated design was used to predict two performance measures (total variable expense and absence rate) by multi-month period in five industrial firms. The regressions do cross-validate, and produce multiple coefficients which display both concurrent and predictive effects, peaking 18 months to two years…

Health Services Utilization in Older Adults with Dementia Receiving Care Coordination: The MIND at Home Trial.

PubMed

Amjad, Halima; Wong, Stephanie K; Roth, David L; Huang, Jin; Willink, Amber; Black, Betty S; Johnston, Deirdre; Rabins, Peter V; Gitlin, Laura N; Lyketsos, Constantine G; Samus, Quincy M

2018-02-01

To investigate effects of a novel dementia care coordination program on health services utilization. A total of 303 community-dwelling adults aged ≥70 with a cognitive disorder in Baltimore, Maryland (2008-2011). Single-blind RCT evaluating efficacy of an 18-month care coordination intervention delivered through community-based nonclinical care coordinators, supported by an interdisciplinary clinical team. Study partners reported acute care/inpatient, outpatient, and home- and community-based service utilization at baseline, 9, and 18 months. From baseline to 18 months, there were no significant group differences in acute care/inpatient or total outpatient services use, although intervention participants had significantly increased outpatient dementia/mental health visits from 9 to 18 months (p = .04) relative to controls. Home and community-based support service use significantly increased from baseline to 18 months in the intervention compared to control (p = .005). While this dementia care coordination program did not impact acute care/inpatient services utilization, it increased use of dementia-related outpatient medical care and nonmedical supportive community services, a combination that may have helped participants remain at home longer. Future care model modifications that emphasize delirium, falls prevention, and behavior management may be needed to influence inpatient service use. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Breastfeeding practices, beliefs, and social norms in low-resource communities in Mexico: Insights for how to improve future promotion strategies

PubMed Central

Swigart, Tessa M.; Bonvecchio, Anabelle; Théodore, Florence L.; Zamudio-Haas, Sophia; Villanueva-Borbolla, Maria Angeles; Thrasher, James F.

2017-01-01

Introduction Breastfeeding is recommended exclusively for the first 6 months after birth, with continued breastfeeding for at least 2 years. Yet prevalence of these recommendations is low globally, although it is an effective and cost-effective way to prevent serious infections and chronic illness. Previous studies have reported that social support greatly influences breastfeeding, but there is little evidence on perceived social norms in Mexico and how they affect actual behavior. Objective Our objective was to investigate breastfeeding intention, practices, attitudes, and beliefs, particularly normative, among low-resource communities in central and southern Mexico. Methods We performed a secondary analysis using the theory of planned behavior with cross-sectional data, which included semi-structured individual interviews with fathers (n 10), 8 focus groups with mothers (n 50), and 8 focus groups with women community leaders (n 44) with a total of 104 participants. Our data also included a quantitative survey among pregnant women and mothers (n 321). Results Women reported supplementing breast milk with water and teas soon after birth, as well as introducing small bites of solid food a few months after birth. Social norms appeared to support breastfeeding, but not exclusive breastfeeding or breastfeeding for periods longer than about a year. This may be partially explained by: a) behavioral beliefs that for the first 6 months breast milk alone is insufficient for the baby, and that water in addition to breast milk is necessary to hydrate an infant and b) normative beliefs related to the appropriateness of breastfeeding in public and as the child gets older. Conclusions Future strategies should focus on positively influencing social norms to support recommended practices, and emphasize the specific reasons behind the recommendations. Future efforts should take a multi-pronged approach using a variety of influences, not only directed at healthcare providers but close family members, including fathers. PMID:28671954

A physical fitness programme during paid working hours - impact on health and work ability among women working in the social service sector: a three year follow up study.

PubMed

Vingård, Eva; Blomkvist, Vanja; Rosenblad, Andreas; Lindberg, Per; Voss, Margaretha; Alfredsson, Lars; Josephson, Malin

2009-01-01

In order to study the influence of a physical fitness programme on work ability among women employed in the social sector an intervention was offered to 205 women working in the social care sector in a municipality in Sweden. The reference group comprised 165 women from the same sector working in another municipality. All participants were employed and answered questionnaires at baseline and after 36 months. For women younger than 45 years, work ability and general health improved significantly while for women, 45 years or older, future work expectations improved. For women with less musculoskeletal pain, improvements were observed regarding future work expectations, as well as work ability and general health while for women with more musculoskeletal pain, improvements were observed for general health and future work expectations. Well-structured physical fitness programmes at the worksite can be useful in contributing to individual's experiences of improvements in their own capacity as well as increased health and wellbeing.

Improving safety and operational efficiency in residential care settings with WiFi-based localization.

PubMed

Doshi-Velez, Finale; Li, William; Battat, Yoni; Charrow, Ben; Curtis, Dorothy; Curthis, Dorothy; Park, Jun-geun; Hemachandra, Sachithra; Velez, Javier; Walsh, Cynthia; Fredette, Don; Reimer, Bryan; Roy, Nicholas; Teller, Seth

2012-07-01

To assess the effectiveness of a wireless network (WiFi-based) localization system (devices mounted on resident wheelchairs) in decreasing caretaker time spent searching for residents and providing alerts of residents going outdoors in a skilled nursing facility. A controlled study over two 2-month periods approved by the institutional review board. A long-term skilled nursing facility in Massachusetts specializing in multiple sclerosis previously instrumented with wireless network infrastructure. Nineteen residents and 9 staff members at the facility for the first 2-month period; 9 residents and 3 staff members at the facility for the second 2-month period. Software was installed on 4 staff computers to display the locations of residents enrolled in the study. This software was made available to enrolled staff for the second half of the first 2-month period and the entirety of the second 2-month study. In the second 2-month study, the software was modified to provide alerts if any 1 of 9 participating "high-risk"' residents went outdoors, and the accuracy of the alert system was evaluated. In the first 2-month study, 9 staff members recorded the amount of time it took them to locate participating residents (as and when needed during the course of their daily activities). In the second 2-month study, 3 staff members recorded whether outdoor-alerts correctly identified a resident leaving the building or if it was a false alarm. In both phases, participating staff members made frequent use of the system (44 searches and 215 outdoor alerts). Overall, the localization information decreased the average time needed to find residents by about two-thirds (from 311.1 seconds to 110.9 seconds). For outdoor alerts, the system had a false-alarm rate of 9.1% (under normal facility operations); systematic tests of the outdoor-alert system carried out by the authors had a false-negative, or missed-alarm, rate of 1.7%. Using timely resident location information can provide significant gains for both operational efficiency (finding residents) and enhanced resident safety (outdoor alerts). This approach may provide an inexpensive alternative for facilities that have sufficient wireless infrastructure; future work should assess its effectiveness in additional settings. Copyright © 2012 American Medical Directors Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

2004-01-01

The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

Crash and Wait? The impact of the Great Recession on Retirement Planning of Older Americans

PubMed Central

McFall, Brooke Helppie

2012-01-01

This study uses data from pre- and post-crash surveys from the Cognitive Economics study to examine the impact of recent stock and labor market wealth losses on the planned retirement ages of older Americans. Regression estimates imply that the average wealth loss between July 2008 and May/June 2009 is associated with an increase in planned retirement age of approximately 2.5 months. Furthermore, pessimism about future stock market returns is found to amplify the impact of wealth losses on retirement timing. PMID:23413315

Use of prescription drugs and future delinquency among adolescent offenders.

PubMed

Drazdowski, Tess K; Jäggi, Lena; Borre, Alicia; Kliewer, Wendy L

2015-01-01

Non-medical use of prescription drugs (NMUPD) by adolescents is a significant public health concern. The present study investigated the profile of NMUPD in 1349 adolescent offenders from the Pathways to Desistance project, and whether NMUPD predicted future delinquency using longitudinal data. Results indicated that increased frequency and recency of NMUPD in adolescent offenders are related to some demographic factors, as well as increased risk for violence exposure, mental health diagnoses, other drug use, and previous delinquency, suggesting that severity of NMUPD is important to consider. However, ANCOVA analyses found that NMUPD was not a significant predictor of drug-related, non-aggressive, or aggressive delinquency 12 months later beyond other known correlates of delinquency. Age, sex, exposure to violence, lower socioeconomic status, more alcohol use, and having delinquency histories were more important than NMUPD in predicting future delinquency. These findings suggest that although NMUPD is an important risk factor relating to many correlates of delinquency, it does not predict future delinquency beyond other known risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

2014-09-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

PubMed

Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimated Use of Water in the Upper Duck River Watershed, Central Tennessee, and Water-Demand Projections through 2030

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hutson, Susan S.

2008-01-01

Future municipal water demand was estimated for the Bedford, Coffee, Marshall, and Maury-southern Williamson water-service areas in the upper Duck River watershed in central Tennessee through 2030. The Duck River, a primary source of municipal water, provided a total of 24.3 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) or 92 percent of the total water use in the study area during 2000. Municipal water use increased 46 percent from 1981 to 2000 (from 18.0 to 26.3 Mgal/d). Water demand for municipal use is expected to continue to increase through 2030 because of the recent intensive and anticipated growth in the residential and commercial sectors. Constant-rate models were used to estimate future municipal water demand. Data on residential and nonresidential billing accounts and estimates of public use and losses were used to calibrate the models. Two watershed scenarios for each water-supply system that depends on the Duck River for supply were simulated. Scenario 1 considered monthly water demand during typical weather conditions as represented by monthly per account use during 2003 and a rate of growth in customer accounts from 1999 to 2003. Results showed that total municipal water use could increase about 104 percent to 51 Mgal/d by 2030, residential water use could increase about 140 percent to 24 Mgal/d, nonresidential water use could increase about 110 percent to 17 Mgal/d, and public use and losses could increase about 83 percent to 11 Mgal/d. Scenario 2 considered monthly water demand during drought conditions as represented by monthly per account use during 2000 and recent growth in customer accounts from 1999 to 2003 or, for selected water-supply systems, an increasing rate of growth. Results showed that total municipal water use could increase about 120 percent to 55 Mgal/d, residential water use could increase about 160 percent to 26 Mgal/d, nonresidential water use could increase about 122 percent to 18 Mgal/d, and public use and losses could double and increase to 12 Mgal/d. For both scenarios the model assumed that the Duck River would supply all future surface-water needs in the study area, that ground-water resources would be sufficient to meet growing demands of the water-supply systems that depend on ground water, and that the amount of surface water sold to water-supply systems primarily dependent on ground water would remain the same through 2030.

Functional recovery following critical illness in children: the "wee-cover" pilot study.

PubMed

Choong, Karen; Al-Harbi, Samah; Siu, Katie; Wong, Katie; Cheng, Ji; Baird, Burke; Pogorzelski, David; Timmons, Brian; Gorter, Jan-Willem; Thabane, Lehana; Khetani, Mary

2015-05-01

To determine the feasibility of conducting a longitudinal prospective study to evaluate functional recovery and predictors of impaired functional recovery in critically ill children. Prospective pilot study. Single-center PICU at McMaster Children's Hospital, Hamilton, Canada. Children aged 12 months to 17 years, with at least one organ dysfunction, limited mobility or bed rest during the first 48 hours of PICU admission, and a minimum 48-hour PICU length of stay, were eligible. Patients transferred from a neonatal ICU prior to ever being discharged home, already mobilizing well or at baseline functional status at time of screening, with an English language barrier, and prior enrollment into this study, were excluded. None. The primary outcome was feasibility, as defined by the ability to screen, enroll eligible patients, and execute the study procedures and measurements on participants. Secondary outcomes included functional status at baseline, 3 and 6 months, PICU morbidity, and mortality. Functional status was measured using the Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory and the Participation and Environment Measure for Children and Youth. Thirty-three patients were enrolled between October 2012 and April 2013. Consent rate was 85%, and follow-up rates were 93% at 3 months and 71% at 6 months. We were able to execute the study procedures and measurements, demonstrating feasibility of conducting a future longitudinal study. Functional status deteriorated following critical illness. Recovery appears to be influenced by baseline health or functional status and severity of illness. Longitudinal research is needed to understand how children recover after a critical illness. Our results suggest factors that may influence the recovery trajectory and were used to inform the methodology, outcomes of interest, and appropriate sample size of a larger multicenter study evaluating functional recovery in this population.

Cardiovascular risk reduction and weight management at a hospital-based postpartum preeclampsia clinic.

PubMed

Janmohamed, Rahim; Montgomery-Fajic, Erin; Sia, Winnie; Germaine, Debbie; Wilkie, Jodi; Khurana, Rshmi; Nerenberg, Kara A

2015-04-01

Women who develop preeclampsia during pregnancy are at high risk of developing future chronic diseases, including premature cardiovascular disease. We have established an interdisciplinary clinic that aims to prevent cardiovascular disease through educational counselling focused on lifestyle modifications in the early postpartum period. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in weight and cardiovascular risk factors in participating women after six months of attendance at the clinic. We conducted a retrospective chart review of women who had a pregnancy complicated by preeclampsia, and who subsequently attended the Postpartum Preeclampsia Clinic. Study subjects had baseline assessments of lifestyle, physical, and laboratory parameters. Individualized goals for cardiovascular risk reduction and lifestyle were established, centering on physical activity and dietary modifications. The primary outcome was change in weight. Over the study period, 21 women were seen for a minimum of six months of follow-up. At an average (± SD) of 4.4 ± 1.4 months postpartum, subjects showed a non-significant improvement in weight (mean weight loss of 0.4 ± 4.5 kg) and BMI (mean decrease in BMI 0.1 ± 1.7 kg/m2). Physical activity improved significantly, from 14% of subjects participating in physical activity before pregnancy to 76% at a mean of 4.4 months postpartum. This study has demonstrated the early benefits of a longitudinal interdisciplinary intervention with counselling about lifestyle modifications for prevention of cardiovascular disease in women with recent preeclampsia. A study with a larger sample size and longer duration of follow-up is planned to confirm these findings.

Predictors of six month change in the voice handicap index in a treatment seeking population

PubMed Central

Moore, Jaime; Greenberg, Caprice

2016-01-01

Objective To evaluate predictors of longitudinal change in patient-perceived voice impact as determined by the Voice Handicap Index (VHI). Study Design Prospective, survey study. Methods Patients consented to the UW Voice and Swallow Clinics Outcomes Database with voice, breathing and/or cough concerns with a baseline clinic visit from November 2012 to January 2014 were eligible for the study. VHI was sent to patients six months post-clinic visit to determine change in voice handicap from baseline. General health was screened using the SF-12v2 survey, using physical component (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores. Predictor variables included – treatment (medical and/or behavioral), dysphonia sub-diagnosis, GRBAS rating, age, sex, socioeconomic factors, smoking history, and comorbidity score. Results Two-hundred thirty-seven patients met study criteria and were followed longitudinally. Eighty-two patients returned six month surveys. VHI was significantly correlated with MCS scores. Patients with a higher grade in baseline GRBAS score were more likely to receive voice intervention (p = .04). Six-month improvement in VHI score was associated with both higher initial VHI score and higher education level in both univariate (p < .01, p = .04) and multivariate analyses (p < .01, p = .02). Voice treatment (medical and/or behavioral) was not a significant factor for improvement in VHI. Conclusions Our results suggest it is important to consider baseline self-perceived voice impact measures and education level in setting expectations for voice treatment. Future studies examining the relationship between treatment patterns and voice-related patient outcomes are warranted. PMID:26952321

The option value of innovative treatments for non-small cell lung cancer and renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Thornton Snider, Julia; Batt, Katharine; Wu, Yanyu; Tebeka, Mahlet Gizaw; Seabury, Seth

2017-10-01

To develop a model of the option value a therapy provides by enabling patients to live to see subsequent innovations and to apply the model to the case of nivolumab in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A model of the option value of nivolumab in RCC and NSCLC was developed and estimated. Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry and published clinical trial results were used to estimate survival curves for metastatic cancer patients with RCC, squamous NSCLC, or nonsquamous NSCLC. To estimate the conventional value of nivolumab, survival with the pre-nivolumab standard of care was compared with survival with nivolumab assuming no future innovation. To estimate the option value of nivolumab, long-term survival trends in RCC and squamous and nonsquamous NSCLC were measured in SEER to forecast mortality improvements that nivolumab patients may live to see. Compared with the previous standard of care, nivolumab extended life expectancy by 6.3 months in RCC, 7.5 months in squamous NSCLC, and 4.5 months in nonsquamous NSCLC, according to conventional methods. Accounting for expected future mortality trends, nivolumab patients are likely to gain an additional 1.2 months in RCC, 0.4 months in squamous NSCLC, and 0.5 months in nonsquamous NSCLC. These option values correspond to 18%, 5%, and 10% of the conventional value of nivolumab, respectively. Option value is important when valuing therapies like nivolumab that extend life in a rapidly evolving area of care.

Association of breastfeeding with maternal control of infant feeding at age 1 year.

PubMed

Taveras, Elsie M; Scanlon, Kelley S; Birch, Leann; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Rich-Edwards, Janet W; Gillman, Matthew W

2004-11-01

Previous studies have found that breastfeeding may protect infants against future overweight. One proposed mechanism is that breastfeeding, compared with bottle-feeding, may promote maternal feeding styles that are less controlling and more responsive to infant cues of hunger and satiety, thereby allowing infants greater self-regulation of energy intake. The objective of this study was to examine whether preponderance of breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life and breastfeeding duration are associated with less maternal restrictive behavior and less pressure to eat. We studied 1160 mother-infant pairs in Project Viva, an ongoing prospective cohort study of pregnant mothers and their children. The main outcome measures were mothers' reports of restricting their children's food intake and of pressuring their children to eat more food, as measured by a modified Child Feeding Questionnaire (CFQ) at 1 year postpartum. Restriction was defined by strongly agreeing or agreeing with the following question from the modified CFQ: "I have to be careful not to feed my child too much." We derived a continuous pressure to eat score from 5 questions of the modified CFQ. We used multiple logistic regression to examine the association between preponderance of breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life, breastfeeding duration, and mothers' restriction of children's access to food. We used multiple linear regression, both before and after adjusting for several groups of confounders, to predict the effects of breastfeeding on the mothers' scores for pressuring their children to eat. The mean (SD) age of the women was 32.4 (4.8) years; 24% of the women were nonwhite, and 32% were primigravidas. At 6 months postpartum, 24% of the mothers were exclusively breastfeeding, 25% were mixed feeding, 41% had weaned, and 10% had fed their infants formula only. The mean (SD) duration of breastfeeding was 6.3 (4.5) months. Thirteen percent of the mothers strongly agreed or agreed with the restriction question. The mean (SD) score on the pressure to eat scale was 5.3 (3.7), and the range was 0 to 20. After adjusting for mothers' preexisting concerns about their children's future eating and weight status, as well as sociodemographic, economic, and anthropometric predictors of breastfeeding duration, we found that the longer the mothers breastfed, the less likely they were to restrict their children's food intake at age 1 year. The adjusted odds ratio was 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.84-0.95) for each 1-month increment in breastfeeding duration. In addition, we found that compared with mothers who were exclusively formula feeding, mothers who were exclusively breastfeeding at 6 months of age had much lower odds of restricting their children's food intake at 1 year (odds ratio: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.10-0.72). Preponderance of breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life and breastfeeding duration (beta = -0.01 points on the 0-20 scale for each additional 1 month of breastfeeding [95% CI: -0.07 to 0.05]) were not related to mothers' pressuring their children to eat more. Mothers who fed their infants breast milk in early infancy and who breastfed for longer periods reported less restrictive behavior regarding child feeding at 1 year. Additional longitudinal studies should examine the extent to which any protective effect of breastfeeding on overweight is explained by decreased maternal feeding restriction.

Association of Breastfeeding With Maternal Control of Infant Feeding at Age 1 Year

PubMed Central

Taveras, Elsie M.; Scanlon, Kelley S.; Birch, Leann; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L.; Rich-Edwards, Janet W.; Gillman, Matthew W.

2007-01-01

Objective Previous studies have found that breastfeeding may protect infants against future overweight. One proposed mechanism is that breastfeeding, compared with bottle-feeding, may promote maternal feeding styles that are less controlling and more responsive to infant cues of hunger and satiety, thereby allowing infants greater self-regulation of energy intake. The objective of this study was to examine whether preponderance of breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life and breastfeeding duration are associated with less maternal restrictive behavior and less pressure to eat. Methods We studied 1160 mother–infant pairs in Project Viva, an ongoing prospective cohort study of pregnant mothers and their children. The main outcome measures were mothers’ reports of restricting their children’s food intake and of pressuring their children to eat more food, as measured by a modified Child Feeding Questionnaire (CFQ) at 1 year postpartum. Restriction was defined by strongly agreeing or agreeing with the following question from the modified CFQ: “I have to be careful not to feed my child too much.” We derived a continuous pressure to eat score from 5 questions of the modified CFQ. We used multiple logistic regression to examine the association between preponderance of breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life, breastfeeding duration, and mothers’ restriction of children’s access to food. We used multiple linear regression, both before and after adjusting for several groups of confounders, to predict the effects of breastfeeding on the mothers’ scores for pressuring their children to eat. Results The mean (SD) age of the women was 32.4 (4.8) years; 24% of the women were nonwhite, and 32% were primigravidas. At 6 months postpartum, 24% of the mothers were exclusively breastfeeding, 25% were mixed feeding, 41% had weaned, and 10% had fed their infants formula only. The mean (SD) duration of breastfeeding was 6.3 (4.5) months. Thirteen percent of the mothers strongly agreed or agreed with the restriction question. The mean (SD) score on the pressure to eat scale was 5.3 (3.7), and the range was 0 to 20. After adjusting for mothers’ preexisting concerns about their children’s future eating and weight status, as well as sociodemographic, economic, and anthropometric predictors of breastfeeding duration, we found that the longer the mothers breastfed, the less likely they were to restrict their children’s food intake at age 1 year. The adjusted odds ratio was 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.84–0.95) for each 1-month increment in breastfeeding duration. In addition, we found that compared with mothers who were exclusively formula feeding, mothers who were exclusively breastfeeding at 6 months of age had much lower odds of restricting their children’s food intake at 1 year (odds ratio: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.10–0.72). Preponderance of breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life and breastfeeding duration (β = −0.01 points on the 0–20 scale for each additional 1 month of breastfeeding [95% CI: −0.07 to 0.05]) were not related to mothers’ pressuring their children to eat more. Conclusion Mothers who fed their infants breast milk in early infancy and who breastfed for longer periods reported less restrictive behavior regarding child feeding at 1 year. Additional longitudinal studies should examine the extent to which any protective effect of breastfeeding on overweight is explained by decreased maternal feeding restriction. PMID:15492358

Clinical Experience with the M4 Ahmed Glaucoma Drainage Implant.

PubMed

Sluch, Ilya; Gudgel, Brett; Dvorak, Justin; Anne Ahluwalia, Mary; Ding, Kai; Vold, Steve; Sarkisian, Steven

2017-01-01

To evaluate the safety and efficacy of the M4 (porous polyethylene plate) Ahmed Glaucoma Valve (AGV) drainage implant in a multicenter retrospective study. A retrospective chart review of medical records of patients who had undergone the M4 Ahmed valve was performed from January 2013 to April 2015. The primary outcome measure was surgical failure defined as: Less than a 20% reduction in baseline intraocular pressure (IOP) to last follow-up visit, final IOP less than 5 mm Hg or greater than 18 mm Hg, reoperation for glaucoma, or loss of light perception vision. All eyes not meeting the above criteria were defined as success. A total of 291 eyes met all study inclusion criteria. The average follow-up in the study was 6 months (±7.6 months) with 112 patients achieving 12-month follow-up (38.5%). 208 eyes (71.5%) met the study success criteria at final follow-up. No statistically significant spikes in postoperative IOP at 1 and 4 months were detected. The average preoperative IOP was 26.0 on an average of 2.8 medications. At 6 months, the average IOP dropped to 16.7 on 0.9 medications and stayed relatively stable at 15.8 on 1.2 medications at 12-month follow-up. The M4 valve appears to have less of a hypertensive phase compared with the other Ahmed class valves with a similar safety profile. While 71.5% success rate was achieved at final follow-up, the failure rate steadily increased over time. While the M4 production has been discontinued, the porous design of the M4 may avoid a pressure spike in the Ahmed valve class and warrants future investigation for valve design. How to cite this article: Sluch I, Gudgel B, Dvorak J, Ahluwalia MA, Ding K, Vold S, Sarkisian S. Clinical Experience with the M4 Ahmed Glaucoma Drainage Implant. J Curr Glaucoma Pract 2017;11(3):92-96.

Evaluating rehabilitation following lumbar fusion surgery (REFS): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Greenwood, James; McGregor, Alison; Jones, Fiona; Hurley, Michael

2015-06-04

The rate of lumbar fusion surgery (LFS) is increasing. Clinical recovery often lags technical outcome. Approximately 40% of patients undergoing LFS rate themselves as symptomatically unchanged or worse following surgery. There is little research describing rehabilitation following LFS with no clear consensus as to what constitutes the optimum strategy. It is important to develop appropriate rehabilitation strategies to help patients manage pain and recover lost function following LFS. The study design is a randomised controlled feasibility trial exploring the feasibility of providing a complex multi-method rehabilitation intervention 3 months following LFS. The rehabilitation protocol that we have developed involves small participant groups of therapist led structured education utilising principles of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), progressive, individualised exercise and peer support. Participants will be randomly allocated to either usual care (UC) or the rehabilitation group (RG). We will recruit 50 subjects, planning to undergo LFS, over 30 months. Following LFS all participants will experience normal care for the first 3 months. Subsequent to a satisfactory 3 month surgical review they will commence their allocated post-operative treatment (RG or UC). Data collection will occur at baseline (pre-operatively), 3, 6 and 12 months post-operatively. Primary outcomes will include an assessment of feasibility factors (including recruitment and compliance). Secondary outcomes will evaluate the acceptability and characteristics of a limited cluster of quantitative measures including the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and an aggregated assessment of physical function (walking 50 yards, ascend/descend a flight of stairs). A nested qualitative study will evaluate participants' experiences. This study will evaluate the feasibility of providing complex, structured rehabilitation in small groups 3 months following technically successful LFS. We will identify strengths and weakness of the proposed protocol and the usefulness and characteristics of the planned outcome measures. This will help shape the development of rehabilitation strategies and inform future work aimed at evaluating clinical efficacy. ISRCTN60891364, 10/07/2014.

Developing Novel Reservoir Rule Curves Using Seasonal Inflow Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Hsin-yi; Tung, Ching-pin

2015-04-01

Due to significant seasonal rainfall variations, reservoirs and their flexible operational rules are indispensable to Taiwan. Furthermore, with the intensifying impacts of climate change on extreme climate, the frequency of droughts in Taiwan has been increasing in recent years. Drought is a creeping phenomenon, the slow onset character of drought makes it difficult to detect at an early stage, and causes delays on making the best decision of allocating water. For these reasons, novel reservoir rule curves using projected seasonal streamflow are proposed in this study, which can potentially reduce the adverse effects of drought. This study dedicated establishing new rule curves which consider both current available storage and anticipated monthly inflows with leading time of two months to reduce the risk of water shortage. The monthly inflows are projected based on the seasonal climate forecasts from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), which a weather generation model is used to produce daily weather data for the hydrological component of the GWLF. To incorporate future monthly inflow projections into rule curves, this study designs a decision flow index which is a linear combination of current available storage and inflow projections with leading time of 2 months. By optimizing linear relationship coefficients of decision flow index, the shape of rule curves and the percent of water supply in each zone, the best rule curves to decrease water shortage risk and impacts can be developed. The Shimen Reservoir in the northern Taiwan is used as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method. Existing rule curves (M5 curves) of Shimen Reservoir are compared with two cases of new rule curves, including hindcast simulations and historic seasonal forecasts. The results show new rule curves can decrease the total water shortage ratio, and in addition, it can also allocate shortage amount to preceding months to avoid extreme shortage events. Even though some uncertainties in historic forecasts would result unnecessary discounts of water supply, it still performs better than M5 curves during droughts.

[Associations of the Employment Status during the First 2 Years Following Medical Rehabilitation and Long Term Occupational Trajectories: Implications for Outcome Measurement].

PubMed

Holstiege, J; Kaluscha, R; Jankowiak, S; Krischak, G

2017-02-01

Study Objectives: The aim was to investigate the predictive value of the employment status measured in the 6 th , 12 th , 18 th and 24 th month after medical rehabilitation for long-term employment trajectories during 4 years. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted based on a 20%-sample of all patients receiving inpatient rehabilitation funded by the German pension fund. Patients aged <62 years who were treated due to musculoskeletal, cardiovascular or psychosomatic disorders during the years 2002-2005 were included and followed for 4 consecutive years. The predictive value of the employment status in 4 predefined months after discharge (6 th , 12 th , 18 th and 24 th month), for the total number of months in employment in 4 years following rehabilitative treatment was analyzed using multiple linear regression. Per time point, separate regression analyses were conducted, including the employment status (employed vs. unemployed) at the respective point in time as explanatory variable, besides a standard set of additional prognostic variables. Results: A total of 252 591 patients were eligible for study inclusion. The level of explained variance of the regression models increased with the point in time used to measure the employment status, included as explanatory variable. Overall the R²-measure increased by 30% from the regression model that included the employment status in the 6 th month (R²=0.60) to the model that included the work status in the 24 th month (R²=0.78). Conclusion: The degree of accuracy in the prognosis of long-term employment biographies increases with the point in time used to measure employment in the first 2 years following rehabilitation. These findings should be taken into consideration for the predefinition of time points used to measure the employment status in future studies. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Short- and long-term eating habit modification predict weight change in overweight, post-menopausal women: results from the WOMAN Study

PubMed Central

Gibbs, Bethany Barone; Kinzel, Laura S.; Gabriel, Kelley Pettee; Chang, Yue-fang; Kuller, Lewis H.

2012-01-01

Background Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors, rather than caloric intake, may be an alternative strategy. Furthermore, important behaviors might differ for short- vs. long-term weight control. Objective To describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months Design Secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up Participants 465 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study Main outcome measures Changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Statistical analyses performed Linear regression models examined the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. Results At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (p<0.001), restaurant eating (p=0.042), sugar-sweetened beverages (p=0.009), and fried foods (p<0.001), and increased fish consumption (p=0.003). Results were similar in intervention participants; only reduced desserts and fried foods associated with weight loss in controls. At 48 months in the combined population, weight loss was again associated with decreased desserts (p=0.003) and sugar-sweetened beverages (p=0.011), but also decreased meats/cheeses (p=0.024) and increased fruits/vegetables (p<0.001). Decreased meats/cheeses predicted weight loss in intervention participants; desserts, sugar-sweetened beverages, and fruits/vegetables were independently associated in controls. Conclusions Changes in eating behaviors were associated with weight change, though important behaviors differed for short- and long-term weight change and by randomization group. Future studies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. PMID:22939439

Quantitative Evaluation of Muscle Function, Gait, and Postural Control in People Experiencing Critical Illness After Discharge From the Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Kiriella, Jeevaka B; Araujo, Tamara; Vergara, Martin; Lopez-Hernandez, Laura; Cameron, Jill I; Herridge, Margaret; Gage, William H; Mathur, Sunita

2018-01-01

The path to recovery of muscle strength and mobility following discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU) has not been well described. The study objective was to quantify muscle function, gait, and postural control at 3 and 6 months after discharge in people who were recovering from critical illness and who were ventilated for 7 days or more. This was a nested longitudinal study with continuous inclusion of individuals over a 2-year period and with age- and sex-matched controls. Twenty-four people were tested at 3 months after ICU discharge; 16 of them (67%) were reevaluated at 6 months (post-ICU group). Healthy controls (n = 12) were tested at a single time point. Muscle function of the knee extensors (KEs), plantar flexors (PFs), and dorsiflexors (DFs) was assessed on a dynamometer. Gait was measured using an electronic walkway, and postural control was measured with 2 portable force plates. Muscle weakness was observed across all muscle groups at 3 months, with the greatest strength reductions in the ankle PFs (45%) and DFs (30%). Muscle power was reduced in the PFs and DFs but was not reduced in the KEs. Gait in the post-ICU group was characterized by a narrower step, longer stride, and longer double-support time than in the controls. Improvements were found in KE strength and in stride time and double-support time during gait at 6 months. Leg muscle strength and power had moderate associations with gait velocity, step width, and stride length (r = .44-.65). The small heterogeneous sample of people with a high level of function was a limitation of this study. Muscle strength and power were impaired at 6 months after ICU discharge and were associated with gait parameters. Future studies are needed to examine the role of muscle strength and power training in post-ICU rehabilitation programs to improve mobility. © 2017 American Physical Therapy Association

Recruitment of Caribbean female commercial sex workers at high risk of HIV infection

PubMed Central

Deschamps, Marie Marcelle; Zorrilla, Carmen D.; Morgan, Cecilia A.; Donastorg, Yeycy; Metch, Barbara; Madenwald, Tamra; Joseph, Patrice; Severe, Karine; Garced, Sheyla; Perez, Marta; Escamilia, Gina; Swann, Edith; Pape, Jean William

2014-01-01

Objective To evaluate novel eligibility criteria and outreach methods to identify and recruit women at high risk of HIV-1 infection in the Caribbean. Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted in 2009–2012 among 799 female commercial sex workers in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Puerto Rico. Minimum eligibility criteria included exchange of sex for goods, services, or money in the previous 6 months and unprotected vaginal or anal sex with a man in the previous 6 months. Sites used local epidemiology to develop more stringent eligibility criteria and recruitment strategies. Participants were asked questions about HIV/AIDS and their level of concern about participating in an HIV vaccine trial. Logistic regression modeling was used to assess predictors of prevalent HIV infection and willingness to participate in a future HIV vaccine study. Results HIV prevalence at screening was 4.6%. Crack cocaine use [odds ratio (OR) = 4.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.8–9.0)] was associated with and having sex with clients in a hotel or motel [OR = 0.5, CI (0.3–1.0)] was inversely associated with HIV infection. A total of 88.9% of enrolled women were definitely or probably willing to participate in a future HIV vaccine trial. Conclusions This study indicated that local eligibility criteria and recruitment methods can be developed to identify and recruit commercial sex workers with higher HIV prevalence than the general population who express willingness to join an HIV vaccine trial. PMID:24096973

Walking Gait Asymmetries Six Months Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction Predict Twelve-Month Patient-Reported Outcomes.

PubMed

Pietrosimone, Brian; Blackburn, J Troy; Padua, Darin A; Pfeiffer, Steven J; Davis, Hope C; Luc-Harkey, Brittney A; Harkey, Matthew S; Stanley, Laura E; Frank, Barnett S; Creighton, R Alexander; Kamath, Ganesh M; Spang, Jeffery T

2018-05-21

The study sought to determine the association between gait biomechanics (vertical ground reaction force [vGRF], vGRF loading rate [vGRF-LR]) collected six months following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) with patient-reported outcomes at twelve months following ACLR. Walking gait mechanics and all subsections of the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcomes Score (KOOS) were collected at six and twelve months following ACLR, respectively, in 25 individuals with a unilateral ACLR. Peak vGRF and peak instantaneous vGRF-LR were extracted from the first 50% of the stance phase. Limb symmetry indices (LSI) were used to normalize outcomes in the ACLR limb to that of the uninjured limb (ACLR /uninjured). Linear regression analyses were used to determine associations between biomechanical outcomes and KOOS while accounting for walking speed. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the accuracy of 6-month biomechanical outcomes for identifying individuals with acceptable patient-reported outcomes, using previously defined KOOS cut-off scores,12 months post-ACLR. Individuals with lower peak vGRF LSI 6 months post-ACLR demonstrated worse patient-reported outcomes (KOOS Pain, Activities of Daily life, Sport and Recreation, Quality of Life) at the 12-month exam. A peak vGRF LSI ≥0.99 6 months following ACLR associated with 13.33x higher odds of reporting acceptable patient-reported outcomes 12 months post-ACLR. Lesser peak vGRF LSI during walking at 6-months post-ACLR may be a critical indicator of worse future patient-reported outcomes. Achieving early symmetrical lower extremity loading and minimizing under-loading of the ACLR limb during walking may be a potential therapeutic target for improving patient-reported outcomes post-ACLR. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Experiences with insecticide-treated curtains: a qualitative study in Iquitos, Peru.

PubMed

Paz-Soldan, Valerie A; Bauer, Karin M; Lenhart, Audrey; Cordova Lopez, Jhonny J; Elder, John P; Scott, Thomas W; McCall, Philip J; Kochel, Tadeusz J; Morrison, Amy C

2016-07-16

Dengue is an arthropod-borne viral disease responsible for approximately 400 million infections annually; the only available method of prevention is vector control. It has been previously demonstrated that insecticide treated curtains (ITCs) can lower dengue vector infestations in and around houses. As part of a larger trial examining whether ITCs could reduce dengue transmission in Iquitos, Peru, the objective of this study was to characterize the participants' experience with the ITCs using qualitative methods. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) surveys (at baseline, and 9 and 27 months post-ITC distribution, with n = 593, 595 and 511, respectively), focus group discussions (at 6 and 12 months post-ITC distribution, with n = 18 and 33, respectively), and 11 one-on-one interviews (at 12 months post-distribution) were conducted with 605 participants who received ITCs as part of a cluster-randomized trial. Focus groups at 6 months post-ITC distribution revealed that individuals had observed their ITCs to function for approximately 3 months, after which they reported the ITCs were no longer working. Follow up revealed that the ITCs required re-treatment with insecticide at approximately 1 year post-distribution. Over half (55.3 %, n = 329) of participants at 9 months post-ITC distribution and over a third (34.8 %, n = 177) at 27 months post-ITC distribution reported perceiving a decrease in the number of mosquitoes in their home. The percentage of participants who would recommend ITCs to their family or friends in the future remained high throughout the study (94.3 %, n = 561 at 9 months and 94.6 %, n = 488 at 27 months post-distribution). When asked why, participants reported that ITCs were effective at reducing mosquitoes (81.6 and 37.8 %, at 9 and 27 months respectively), that they prevent dengue (5.7 and 51.2 %, at 9 and 27 months), that they are "beautiful" (5.9 and 3.1 %), as well as other reasons (6.9 and 2.5 %). ITCs have substantial potential for long term dengue vector control because they are liked by users, both for their perceived effectiveness and for aesthetic reasons, and because they require little proactive behavioral effort on the part of the users. Our results highlight the importance of gathering process (as opposed to outcome) data during vector control studies, without which researchers would not have become aware that the ITCs had lost effectiveness early in the trial.

From local perception to global perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, Flavio; Stocker, Thomas F.

2015-08-01

Recent sociological studies show that over short time periods the large day-to-day, month-to-month or year-to-year variations in weather at a specific location can influence and potentially bias our perception of climate change, a more long-term and global phenomenon. By weighting local temperature anomalies with the number of people that experience them and considering longer time periods, we illustrate that the share of the world population exposed to warmer-than-normal temperatures has steadily increased during the past few decades. Therefore, warming is experienced by an increasing number of individuals, counter to what might be simply inferred from global mean temperature anomalies. This behaviour is well-captured by current climate models, offering an opportunity to increase confidence in future projections of climate change irrespective of the personal local perception of weather.

Identifying Factors That Increase the Likelihood for Alcohol-Induced Blackouts in the Prepartying Context

PubMed Central

LaBrie, Joseph W.; Hummer, Justin; Kenney, Shannon; Lac, Andrew; Pedersen, Eric

2015-01-01

The present study examined risk factors related to “blacking out” (e.g., temporary periods of memory loss during drinking) during preparty drinking events (i.e., pregaming, predrinking). Participants were students from two universities on the West Coast who reported past month prepartying (N = 2,546) in online surveys administered in the fall of 2008. Among these students, 25% (n = 636) reported blacking out during at least one occasion in which they prepartied in the past month. A logistic regression model underscored that Greek student affiliation, family history of alcohol abuse, frequency of prepartying, and both playing drinking games and consuming shots of liquor while prepartying increased the likelihood of blacking out. Limitations and implications for future research and collegiate prevention strategies are discussed. PMID:21222521

Merging the MODIS and NESDIS Monthly Snow-Cover Records to Study Decade-Scale Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Foster, James L.; Robinson, David A.; Riggs, George A.

2004-01-01

A decade-scale record of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has been available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) and has been reconstructed and validated by Rutgers University following adjustments for inconsistencies that were discovered in the early years of the data set. This record provides weekly, monthly (and, in recent years, daily) snow cover from 1966 to the present for the Northern Hemisphere. With the December 1999 launch of NASA's Earth observing System (EOS) Terra satellite, snow maps are being produced globally, using automated algorithms, on a daily, weekly and monthly basis from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The resolution of the MODIS monthly snow maps (0.05deg or about 5 km) is an improvement over that of the NESDIS-derived monthly snow maps (>approx.10 km) the maps, it is necessary to study the datasets carefully to determine if it is possible to merge the datasets into a continuous record. The months in which data are available for both the NESDIS and MODIS maps (March 2000 to the present) will be compared quantitatively to analyze differences in North American and Eurasian snow cover. Results from the NESDIS monthly maps show that for North America (including all 12 months), there is a trend toward slightly less snow cover in each succeeding decade. Interannual snow-cover extent has varied significantly since 2000 as seen in both the NESDIS and MODIS maps. As the length of the satellite record increases through the MODIS era, and into the National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) era, it should become easier to identify trends in areal extent of snow cover, if present, that may have climatic significance. Thus it is necessary to analyze the validity of merging the NESDIS and MODIS, and, in the future, the NPOESS datasets for determination of long-term continuity in measurement of Northern Hemisphere snow cover.

Cognitive status is a determinant of health resource utilization among individuals with a history of falls: a 12-month prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Davis, J C; Dian, L; Khan, K M; Bryan, S; Marra, C A; Hsu, C L; Jacova, P; Chiu, B K; Liu-Ambrose, T

2016-03-01

Falls are a costly public health problem worldwide. The literature is devoid of prospective data that identifies factors among fallers that significantly drive health care resource utilization. We found that cognitive function--specifically, executive functions--and cognitive status are significant determinants of health resource utilization among older fallers. Although falls are costly, there are no prospective data examining factors among fallers that drive health care resource utilization. We identified key determinants of health resource utilization (HRU) at 6 and 12 months among older adults with a history of falls. Specifically, with the increasing recognition that cognitive impairment is associated with increased falls risk, we investigated cognition as a potential driver of health resource utilization. This 12-month prospective cohort study at the Vancouver Falls Prevention Clinic (n = 319) included participants with a history of at least one fall in the previous 12 months. Based on their cognitive status, participants were divided into two groups: (1) no mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and (2) MCI. We constructed two linear regression models with HRU at 6 and 12 months as the dependent variables for each model, respectively. Predictors relating to mobility, global cognition, executive functions, and cognitive status (MCI versus no MCI) were examined. Age, sex, comorbidities, depression status, and activities of daily living were included regardless of statistical significance. Global cognition, comorbidities, working memory, and cognitive status (MCI versus no MCI ascertained using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA)) were significant determinants of total HRU at 6 months. The number of medical comorbidities and global cognition were significant determinants of total HRU at 12 months. MCI status was a determinant of HRU at 6 months among older adults with a history of falls. As such, efforts to minimize health care resource use related to falls, it is important to tailor future interventions to be effective for people with MCI who fall. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01022866.

Cardiac Medication Use in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction and Nonobstructive Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Adatia, Falisha; Galway, Shannon; Grubisic, Maja; Lee, May; Daniele, Patrick; Humphries, Karin H; Sedlak, Tara L

2017-11-01

Patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) and nonobstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) have an elevated cardiac event rate, suggesting that these patients may benefit from cardiac medication. We evaluated the rates of cardiac medication use 3 months before angiography and 3 months following clinically indicated angiography for MI in patients with no CAD, nonobstructive CAD, and obstructive CAD. We also examined the sex differences in cardiac medication use 3 months following angiography in patients by extent of angiographic CAD. We studied patients ≥20 years old with MI undergoing coronary angiography in British Columbia, Canada, from January 1, 2008, to March 31, 2010 (n = 3,841). No CAD, nonobstructive CAD, and obstructive CAD were defined as 0%, 1% to 49%, and ≥50% luminal narrowing in any epicardial coronary artery, respectively. Medication use, 3 months before and 3 months following angiography, was obtained through British Columbia PharmaNet for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE-Is), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), calcium channel blockers (CCBs), beta-blockers, statins, and antiplatelet agents. Optimal medical therapy (OMT) was defined as filled prescriptions for all three: ACE-Is/ARBs, beta-blockers, and statins. Following angiography, in all medication categories except CCBs, patients with no CAD and nonobstructive CAD had significantly lower rates of prescriptions filled than patients with obstructive CAD (all p < 0.001). After adjusting for age and prior medication use, patients with nonobstructive CAD were still less likely to receive these medications than patients with obstructive CAD, including OMT with an odds ratio = 0.25 (95% confidence interval: 0.18-0.36). There were no significant sex differences in medication use 3 months postangiography. In post-MI patients, medication use following angiography is significantly lower in nonobstructive CAD than obstructive CAD at 3 months. While sex was not an independent predictor of medication use 3 months post-catheterization, future studies should explore methods of improving medication use in both females and males with nonobstructive CAD post-MI.

Do Executive Functions Predict Binge-Drinking Patterns? Evidence from a Longitudinal Study in Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Bø, Ragnhild; Billieux, Joël; Gjerde, Line C.; Eilertsen, Espen M.; Landrø, Nils I.

2017-01-01

Background: Impairments in executive functions (EFs) are related to binge drinking in young adulthood, but research on how EFs influence future binge drinking is lacking. The aim of the current report is therefore to investigate the association between various EFs and later severity of, and change in, binge drinking over a prolonged period during young adulthood. Methods: At baseline, 121 students reported on their alcohol habits (Alcohol use disorder identification test; Alcohol use questionnaire). Concurrently, EFs [working memory, reversal, set-shifting, response inhibition, response monitoring and decision-making (with ambiguity and implicit risk)] were assessed. Eighteen months later, information on alcohol habits for 103 of the participants were gathered. Data were analyzed by means of multilevel regression modeling. Results: Future severity of binge drinking was uniquely predicted by performance on the Information sampling task, assessing risky decision-making (β = -1.86, 95% CI: -3.69, -0.04). None of the study variables predicted severity or change in binge drinking. Conclusion: Future severity of binge drinking was associated with making risky decisions in the prospect for gain, suggesting reward hypersensitivity. Future studies should aim at clarifying whether there is a causal association between decision-making style and binge drinking. Performance on all executive tasks was unrelated to change in binge drinking patterns; however, the finding was limited by overall small changes, and needs to be confirmed with longer follow-up periods. PMID:28408897

Health system costs by sex, age and proximity to death, and implications for estimation of future expenditure.

PubMed

Blakely, Tony; Atkinson, June; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nghiem, Nhung; McLeod, Heather; Wilson, Nick

2014-05-02

Health expenditure increases with age, but some of this increase is due to costs proximal to death. We used linked health datasets (HealthTracker) to determine health expenditure by proximity to death. We then determined the impact on future health expenditure projections of accounting for proximity to death in costs. 2007 to 2009 national health event data were linked for hospitalisations, inpatient procedures, outpatient events, pharmaceuticals, laboratory tests, and primary care consultations. Each event was assigned a cost. Health expenditure by sex, age and whether in last 6 or 12 months of life or not were calculated. Future health expenditure trends were then estimated for the Statistics New Zealand median projection population counts, with 2010-12 mortality rates reducing by 2% per annum into the future. A total of $8.1, $8.8 and $9.2 billion dollars (inflation-adjusted to 2011 NZ$) was allocated to individual health events in HealthTracker in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Citizen costs for people not within 6 months of death ranged from $498 per person-year (10-14 year old females) to $6900 per person-year (90-94 year old males). Per person-year costs in the last 6 months of life were 10-fold higher on average, being maximal at $30,000 or more among infants and the older elderly (80+ years). Similar patterns were apparent for costs within 12 months of death. For people hypothetically exposed to these 2007-09 health system costs over their full life, the cumulative costs for a person dying at age 70 years was $113,000, and doubled to $223,000 for a person dying at age 90. The proportion of cumulative health expenditure in the last year of life declined with increasing age of death: e.g. 24%, 13% and 10% for someone aged 40, 70 and 90 respectively. Projections of future health system expenditure were overestimated by 2.3% to 3.5% in 2041 when not accounting for proximity to death in costs. New Zealand is fortunate to have access to rich data on health system costs. The age-specific health system costs per citizen we have calculated can be used in health expenditure projections, for cost-effectiveness analyses, and for considering how public health expenditure is distributed across the life course.

An Evaluation of Provincial Infectious Disease Surveillance Reports in Ontario.

PubMed

Chan, Ellen; Barnes, Morgan E; Sharif, Omar

Public Health Ontario (PHO) publishes various infectious disease surveillance reports, but none have yet been formally evaluated. PHO evaluated its monthly and annual infectious disease surveillance reports to assess public health stakeholders' current perception of the products and to develop recommendations for improving future products. An evaluation consisting of an online survey and a review of public Web sites of other jurisdictions with similar annual reports. For the online survey, stakeholder organizations targeted were the 36 local public health units and the Health health ministry in Ontario, Canada. Survey participants included epidemiologists, managers, directors, and other public health practitioners from participating organizations. Online survey respondents' awareness and access to the reports, their rated usefulness of reports and subsections, and suggestions for improving usefulness; timeliness of select annual reports from other jurisdictions based on the period from data described to report publication. Among 57 survey respondents, between 74% and 97% rated each report as useful; the most common use was for situational awareness. Respondents ranked timeliness as the most important attribute of surveillance reports, followed by data completeness. Among 6 annual reports reviewed, the median time to publication was 11.5 months compared with 23.2 months for PHO. Recommendations based on this evaluation have already been applied to the monthly report (eg, focusing on the most useful sections) and have become key considerations when developing future annual reports and other surveillance reporting tools (eg, need to provide more timely reports). Other public health organizations may also use this evaluation to inform aspects of their surveillance report development and evaluation. The evaluation results have provided PHO with direction on how to improve its provincial infectious disease surveillance reporting moving forward, and formed a basis for future work in surveillance product development and evaluation.

Feasibility of cognitive remediation therapy for adults with autism spectrum disorders: a single-group pilot study.

PubMed

Okuda, Tomoko; Asano, Kenichi; Numata, Noriko; Hirano, Yoshiyuki; Yamamoto, Tetsuya; Tanaka, Mari; Matsuzawa, Daisuke; Shimizu, Eiji; Iyo, Masaomi; Nakazato, Michiko

2017-01-01

Set-shifting (SS) difficulties and weak central coherence (CC) are commonly associated with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Cognitive remediation therapy (CRT) aims to improve such cognitive processing; however, there are no reports on CRT for patients with ASD. This pilot study aimed to provide preliminary evidence to support the use of CRT for individuals with ASD and provide data to inform future studies. Nineteen individuals with ASD were recruited and administered a series of neuropsychological and questionnaire measures to examine cognitive function and clinical outcomes such as anxiety and depression. Participants received CRT, and cognitive function and clinical variables were re-evaluated at postintervention and after 3 months. The participants demonstrated significant improvement in CC and anxiety at postintervention, which was maintained at 3-month follow-up. Although SS scores had improved with a large effect size, this was not statistically significant. CRT improved CC and anxiety scores for individuals with ASD, suggesting that CRT is an effective treatment for individuals with ASD.

Factors associated with exclusive breastfeeding in the first six months of life in Brazil: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Boccolini, Cristiano Siqueira; de Carvalho, Márcia Lazaro; de Oliveira, Maria Inês Couto

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify factors associated with exclusive breastfeeding in the first six months of life in Brazil. METHODS Systematic review of epidemiological studies conducted in Brazil with exclusive breastfeeding as outcome. Medline and LILACS databases were used. After the selection of articles, a hierarchical theoretical model was proposed according to the proximity of the variable to the outcome. RESULTS Of the 67 articles identified, we selected 20 cross-sectional studies and seven cohort studies, conducted between 1998 and 2010, comprising 77,866 children. We identified 36 factors associated with exclusive breastfeeding, being more often associated the distal factors: place of residence, maternal age and education, and the proximal factors: maternal labor, age of the child, use of a pacifier, and financing of primary health care. CONCLUSIONS The theoretical model developed may contribute to future research, and factors associated with exclusive breastfeeding may subsidize public policies on health and nutrition. PMID:26759970

Effects of a skin rehabilitation nursing program on skin status, depression, and burn-specific health in burn survivors.

PubMed

Roh, Young Sook; Seo, Cheong Hoon; Jang, Ki Un

2010-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify the effects of a skin rehabilitation nursing program (SRNP) on skin status, depression, and burn-specific health in Korean burn survivors. A pretest-posttest design with a nonequivalent control group was used to examine the effects of SRNP for 3 months in a group of 26 burn survivors. The SRNP group of 13 burn survivors received massage therapy 30 minutes three times a week for 3 months compared to a control group of 13 burn survivors receiving typical care. The SRNP group showed no significant changes in the burn scar, subjective skin status, depression, or burn-specific health. Burn survivors receiving SRNP had reduced burn scar depth after the intervention compared to the control group. The findings of this study demonstrate that SRNP for burn survivors may improve burn scars, and findings suggest that future studies with a larger sample should be conducted using SRNP as an intervention for burn survivors.

Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

2018-02-01

Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

Risk and Protective Processes Predicting Rural African American Young Men's Substance Abuse.

PubMed

Cho, Junhan; Kogan, Steven M

2016-12-01

Informed by a life course perspective, this study tested a cascade model linking harsh, unresponsive parenting during childhood to young African American men's substance abuse via precocious transitions, economic instability, and future orientation. The moderating influence of community disadvantage and romantic partner support on the hypothesized pathways was also examined. At the baseline, the sample included 505 African American men between ages 19 and 22 years from high-poverty rural communities. Follow-up data were collected 18 months after baseline. Using structural equation modeling, we identified harsh, unresponsive parenting influenced precocious transitions in adolescence, which in turn increased economic instability during young adulthood. Economic instability was associated with a reduction in future orientation, a proximal influence on increases in substance abuse. Also, residence in a disadvantaged community amplified the influence of precocious transitions on economic instability and the influence of economic instability on future orientation. Involvement with supportive romantic partnership evinced a protective effect, attenuating the influence of precocious transitions on economic instability and the influence of economic instability on a future orientation. This study expands understanding of young adults' substance abuse by demonstrating the risk and protective processes linking substance abuse to developmental factors across childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

Future time perspective and health behaviors: temporal framing of self-regulatory processes in physical exercise and dietary behaviors.

PubMed

Gellert, Paul; Ziegelmann, Jochen P; Lippke, Sonia; Schwarzer, Ralf

2012-04-01

Limitations in perceived lifetime can undermine long-term goal striving. Planning is supposed to translate intentions into health behaviors and to operate as a compensatory strategy to overcome goal striving deficits associated with a limited time perspective. Two longitudinal studies were conducted examining the compensatory role of planning: an online survey on fruit and vegetable consumption (N = 909; 16-78 years; follow-up at 4 months) and a questionnaire study on physical exercise in older adults (N = 289; 60-95 years, over a half-year period). Intentions, planning, and behavior were measured in a behavior-specific, future time perspective in a generic manner. Planning mediated between intentions and both health behaviors. Time perspective operated as a moderator, indicating that in individuals with a more limited time perspective, a stronger effect of planning on health behaviors emerged. Planning as a self-regulatory strategy may compensate for a limited time perspective.