Analysis of the use of codon pairs in the HE gene of the ISA virus shows a correlation between bias in HPR codon-pair use and mortality rates caused by the virus

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Segment 6 of the ISA virus codes for hemoagglutinin-esterase (HE). This segment is highly variable, with more than 26 variants identified. The major variation is observed in what is called the high polymorphism region (HPR). The role of the different HPR zones in the viral cycle or evolution remains unknown. However viruses that present the HPR0 are avirulent, while viruses with important deletions in this region have been responsible for outbreaks with high mortality rates. In this work, using bioinformatic tools, we examined the influence of different HPRs on the adaptation of HE genes to the host translational machinery and the relationship to observed virulence. Methods Translational efficiency of HE genes and their HPR were estimated analyzing codon-pair bias (CPB), adaptation to host codon use (codon adaptation index - CAI) and the adaptation to available tRNAs (tAI). These values were correlated with reported mortality for the respective ISA virus and the ΔG of RNA folding. tRNA abundance was inferred from tRNA gene numbers identified in the Salmo salar genome using tRNAScan-SE. Statistical correlation between data was performed using a non-parametric test. Results We found that HPR0 contains zones with codon pairs of low frequency and low availability of tRNA with respect to salmon codon-pair usage, suggesting that HPR modifies HE translational efficiency. Although calculating tAI was impossible because one third of tRNAs (~60.000) were tRNA-ala, translational efficiency measured by CPB shows that as HPR size increases, the CPB value of the HE gene decreases (P = 2x10-7, ρ = −0.675, n = 63) and that these values correlate positively with the mortality rates caused by the virus (ρ = 0.829, P = 2x10-7, n = 11). The mortality associated with different virus isolates or their corresponding HPR sizes were not related with the ΔG of HPR RNA folding, suggesting that the secondary structure of HPR RNA does not modify virulence. Conclusions Our results suggest that HPR size affects the efficiency of gene translation, which modulates the virulence of the virus by a mechanism similar to that observed in production of live attenuated vaccines through deoptimization of codon-pair usage. PMID:23742749

Behavioural response to combined insecticide and temperature stress in natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, A; Neumann-Mondlak, A; Good, R T; Green, L M; Schmidt, J M; Robin, C

2016-05-01

Insecticide resistance evolves extremely rapidly, providing an illuminating model for the study of adaptation. With climate change reshaping species distribution, pest and disease vector control needs rethinking to include the effects of environmental variation and insect stress physiology. Here, we assessed how both long-term adaptation of populations to temperature and immediate temperature variation affect the genetic architecture of DDT insecticide response in Drosophila melanogaster. Mortality assays and behavioural assays based on continuous activity monitoring were used to assess the interaction between DDT and temperature on three field-derived populations from climate extremes (Raleigh for warm temperate, Tasmania for cold oceanic and Queensland for hot tropical). The Raleigh population showed the highest mortality to DDT, whereas the Queensland population, epicentre for derived alleles of the resistance gene Cyp6g1, showed the lowest. Interaction between insecticide and temperature strongly affected mortality, particularly for the Tasmanian population. Activity profiles analysed using self-organizing maps show that the insecticide promoted an early response, whereas elevated temperature promoted a later response. These distinctive early or later activity phases revealed similar responses to temperature and DDT dose alone but with more or less genetic variance depending on the population. This change in genetic variance among populations suggests that selection particularly depleted genetic variance for DDT response in the Queensland population. Finally, despite similar (co)variation between traits in benign conditions, the genetic responses across population differed under stressful conditions. This showed how stress-responsive genetic variation only reveals itself in specific conditions and thereby escapes potential trade-offs in benign environments. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Comment on “Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Michael C.; Deroba, Jonathan J.; Legault, Christopher M.; Brooks, Elizabeth N.

2016-04-01

Pershing et al. (Reports, 13 November, p. 809) concluded that failure to account for temperature in the assessment and management of Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod caused overfishing. We argue that the “extra mortality” calculation driving this conclusion is an artifact. Environmental factors affect all stocks, but attribution of additional mortality to temperature alone by Pershing et al. is unsupported by the data.

Praying until Death: Apostolicism, Delays and Maternal Mortality in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Religion affects people’s daily lives by solving social problems, although it creates others. Female sexual and reproductive health are among the issues most affected by religion. Apostolic sect members in Zimbabwe have been associated with higher maternal mortality. We explored apostolic beliefs and practices on maternal health using 15 key informant interviews in 5 purposively selected districts of Zimbabwe. Results show that apostolicism promotes high fertility, early marriage, non-use of contraceptives and low or non-use of hospital care. It causes delays in recognizing danger signs, deciding to seek care, reaching and receiving appropriate health care. The existence of a customized spiritual maternal health system demonstrates a huge desire for positive maternal health outcomes among apostolics. We conclude that apostolic beliefs and practices exacerbate delays between onset of maternal complications and receiving help, thus increasing maternal risk. We recommend complementary and adaptive approaches that address the maternal health needs of apostolics in a religiously sensitive manner. PMID:27509018

The Effects of Extreme Temperature Events on Human Mortality in Europe: Winners and Losers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merte, S.

2016-12-01

Climate change is a sizable threat to public health. Besides the shift in mean temperatures, there is also a change in the frequency of extreme temperature events. While cold spells become less frequent, heat waves become more common. As either of these can cause human death, the net-effect of climate change in terms of human excess mortality is currently unclear and and will vary depending on local conditions. The ability to estimate this net-effect is key when it comes to designing effective climate change adaptation policies as some areas will be affected earlier and/or stronger than others. This work provides the first large-scale estimate of this net-effect for Europe. Utilizing a novel methodology based on singular systems analysis, climate extreme-driven excess mortality is estimated using national-level health data. The first notable finding of this work is the confirmation that extreme temperature events already pose a major environmental risk: tens of thousands of people die every year in the examined European countries as a result of heat waves and cold spells. The second important result is that it demonstrates the need for climate change mitigation: Assuming moderate climate change, some countries in Northern and Western Europe will benefit from the shift in extreme temperature events — they will experience a net-reduction in excess mortality as a result of a drastically reduced frequency of cold spells. In contrast, assuming severe climate change, there will be a significant increase in excess mortality, in particular across countries in Southern Europe. This means that -if climate adaptation fails- there will be no winners, just losers.

Evolution of defence cocktails: Antimicrobial peptide combinations reduce mortality and persistent infection.

PubMed

Zanchi, Caroline; Johnston, Paul R; Rolff, Jens

2017-10-01

The simultaneous expression of costly immune effectors such as multiple antimicrobial peptides is a hallmark of innate immunity of multicellular organisms, yet the adaptive advantage remains unresolved. Here, we test current hypotheses on the evolution of such defence cocktails. We use RNAi gene knock-down to explore, the effects of three highly expressed antimicrobial peptides, displaying different degrees of activity in vitro against Staphylococcus aureus, during an infection in the beetle Tenebrio molitor. We find that a defensin confers no survival benefit but reduces bacterial loads. A coleoptericin contributes to host survival without affecting bacterial loads. An attacin has no individual effect. Simultaneous knock-down of the defensin with the other AMPs results in increased mortality and elevated bacterial loads. Contrary to common expectations, the effects on host survival and bacterial load can be independent. The expression of multiple AMPs increases host survival and contributes to the control of persisting infections and tolerance. This is an emerging property that explains the adaptive benefit of defence cocktails. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

PubMed Central

Huynen, Maud M. T. E.; Martens, Pim

2015-01-01

Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments. PMID:26512680

A two-stage cluster sampling method using gridded population data, a GIS, and Google Earth(TM) imagery in a population-based mortality survey in Iraq.

PubMed

Galway, Lp; Bell, Nathaniel; Sae, Al Shatari; Hagopian, Amy; Burnham, Gilbert; Flaxman, Abraham; Weiss, Wiliam M; Rajaratnam, Julie; Takaro, Tim K

2012-04-27

Mortality estimates can measure and monitor the impacts of conflict on a population, guide humanitarian efforts, and help to better understand the public health impacts of conflict. Vital statistics registration and surveillance systems are rarely functional in conflict settings, posing a challenge of estimating mortality using retrospective population-based surveys. We present a two-stage cluster sampling method for application in population-based mortality surveys. The sampling method utilizes gridded population data and a geographic information system (GIS) to select clusters in the first sampling stage and Google Earth TM imagery and sampling grids to select households in the second sampling stage. The sampling method is implemented in a household mortality study in Iraq in 2011. Factors affecting feasibility and methodological quality are described. Sampling is a challenge in retrospective population-based mortality studies and alternatives that improve on the conventional approaches are needed. The sampling strategy presented here was designed to generate a representative sample of the Iraqi population while reducing the potential for bias and considering the context specific challenges of the study setting. This sampling strategy, or variations on it, are adaptable and should be considered and tested in other conflict settings.

A two-stage cluster sampling method using gridded population data, a GIS, and Google EarthTM imagery in a population-based mortality survey in Iraq

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Mortality estimates can measure and monitor the impacts of conflict on a population, guide humanitarian efforts, and help to better understand the public health impacts of conflict. Vital statistics registration and surveillance systems are rarely functional in conflict settings, posing a challenge of estimating mortality using retrospective population-based surveys. Results We present a two-stage cluster sampling method for application in population-based mortality surveys. The sampling method utilizes gridded population data and a geographic information system (GIS) to select clusters in the first sampling stage and Google Earth TM imagery and sampling grids to select households in the second sampling stage. The sampling method is implemented in a household mortality study in Iraq in 2011. Factors affecting feasibility and methodological quality are described. Conclusion Sampling is a challenge in retrospective population-based mortality studies and alternatives that improve on the conventional approaches are needed. The sampling strategy presented here was designed to generate a representative sample of the Iraqi population while reducing the potential for bias and considering the context specific challenges of the study setting. This sampling strategy, or variations on it, are adaptable and should be considered and tested in other conflict settings. PMID:22540266

Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

2017-12-01

Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

A critical life stage of the Atlantic salmon Salmo salar: behaviour and survival during the smolt and initial post-smolt migration.

PubMed

Thorstad, E B; Whoriskey, F; Uglem, I; Moore, A; Rikardsen, A H; Finstad, B

2012-07-01

The anadromous life cycle of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar involves long migrations to novel environments and challenging physiological transformations when moving between salt-free and salt-rich waters. In this article, (1) environmental factors affecting the migration behaviour and survival of smolts and post-smolts during the river, estuarine and early marine phases, (2) how behavioural patterns are linked to survival and (3) how anthropogenic factors affect migration and survival are synthesized and reviewed based on published literature. The timing of the smolt migration is important in determining marine survival. The timing varies among rivers, most likely as a consequence of local adaptations, to ensure sea entry during optimal periods. Smolts and post-smolts swim actively and fast during migration, but in areas with strong currents, their own movements may be overridden by current-induced transport. Progression rates during the early marine migration vary between 0.4 and 3.0 body lengths s(-1) relative to the ground. Reported mortality is 0.3-7.0% (median 2.3) km(-1) during downriver migration, 0.6-36% (median 6.0) km(-1) in estuaries and 0.3-3.4% (median 1.4) km(-1) in coastal areas. Estuaries and river mouths are the sites of the highest mortalities, with predation being a common cause. The mortality rates varied more among studies in estuaries than in rivers and marine areas, which probably reflects the huge variation among estuaries in their characteristics. Behaviour and survival during migration may also be affected by pollution, fish farming, sea lice Lepeophtheirus salmonis, hydropower development and other anthropogenic activities that may be directly lethal, delay migration or have indirect effects by inhibiting migration. Total mortality reported during early marine migration (up to 5-230 km from the river mouths) in the studies available to date varies between 8 and 71%. Hence, the early marine migration is a life stage with high mortalities, due to both natural and human influences. Factors affecting mortality during the smolt and post-smolt stages contribute to determine the abundance of spawner returns. With many S. salar populations in decline, increased mortality at these stages may considerably contribute to limit S. salar production, and the consequences of human-induced mortality at this stage may be severe. Development of management actions to increase survival and fitness at the smolt and post-smolt stages is crucial to re-establish or conserve wild populations. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

New social adaptability index predicts overall mortality.

PubMed

Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Barenbaum, Anna; Rodrigue, James; Rout, Preeti; Isaacs, Ross; Mukamal, Kenneth

2011-08-01

Definitions of underprivileged status based on race, gender and geographic location are neither sensitive nor specific; instead we proposed and validated a composite index of social adaptability (SAI). Index of social adaptability was calculated based on employment, education, income, marital status, and substance abuse, each factor contributing from 0 to 3 points. Index of social adaptability was validated in NHANES-3 by association with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Weighted analysis of 19,593 subjects demonstrated mean SAI of 8.29 (95% CI 8.17-8.40). Index of social adaptability was higher in Whites, followed by Mexican-Americans and then the African-American population (ANOVA, p < 0.001). The SAI was higher in subjects living in metropolitan compared to rural areas (T-test, p < 0.001), and was greater in men than in women (T-test, p < 0.001). In Cox models adjusted for age, comorbidity index, BMI, race, sex, geographic location, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, albumin, cholesterol, and glycated hemoglobin levels, SAI was inversely associated with mortality (HR 0.87 per point, 95% CI 0.84-0.90, p < 0.001). This association was confirmed in subgroups. We proposed and validated an indicator of social adaptability with a strong association with mortality, which can be used to identify underprivileged populations at risk of death.

Adaptation of Listeria monocytogenes in a simulated cheese medium: effects on virulence using the Galleria mellonella infection model.

PubMed

Schrama, D; Helliwell, N; Neto, L; Faleiro, M L

2013-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the acid and salt adaptation in a cheese-based medium on the virulence potential of Listeria monocytogenes strains isolated from cheese and dairy processing environment using the Galleria mellonella model. Four L. monocytogenes strains were exposed to a cheese-based medium in conditions of induction of an acid tolerance response and osmotolerance response (pH 5·5 and 3·5% w/v NaCl) and injected in G. mellonella insects. The survival of insects and the L. monocytogenes growth kinetics in insects were evaluated. The gene expression of hly, actA and inlA genes was determined by real-time PCR. The adapted cells of two dairy strains showed reduced insect mortality (P < 0·05) in comparison with nonadapted cells. Listeria monocytogenes Scott A was the least virulent, whereas the cheese isolate C882 caused the highest insect mortality, and no differences (P > 0·05) was found between adapted and nonadapted cells. The gene expression results evidenced an overexpression of virulence genes in cheese-based medium, but not in simulated insect-induced conditions. Our results suggest that adaptation to low pH and salt in a cheese-based medium can affect the virulence of L. monocytogenes, but this effect is strain dependent. In this study, the impact of adaptation to low pH and salt in a cheese-based medium on L. monocytogenes virulence was tested using the Wax Moth G. mellonella model. This model allowed the differentiation of the virulence potential between the L. monocytogenes strains. The effect of adaptation on virulence is strain dependent. The G. mellonella model revealed to be a prompt method to test food-related factors on L. monocytogenes virulence. © 2013 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Putting all your eggs in one basket: life-history strategies, bet hedging, and diversification.

PubMed

White, Andrew Edward; Li, Yexin Jessica; Griskevicius, Vladas; Neuberg, Steven L; Kenrick, Douglas T

2013-05-01

Diversification of resources is a strategy found everywhere from the level of microorganisms to that of giant Wall Street investment firms. We examine the functional nature of diversification using life-history theory-a framework for understanding how organisms navigate resource-allocation trade-offs. This framework suggests that diversification may be adaptive or maladaptive depending on one's life-history strategy and that these differences should be observed under conditions of threat. In three studies, we found that cues of mortality threat interact with one index of life-history strategy, childhood socioeconomic status (SES), to affect diversification. Among those from low-SES backgrounds, mortality threat increased preferences for diversification. However, among those from high-SES backgrounds, mortality threat had the opposite effect, inclining people to put all their eggs in one basket. The same interaction pattern emerged with a potential biomarker of life-history strategy, oxidative stress. These findings highlight when, and for whom, different diversification strategies can be advantageous.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Sanderson, Michael; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.

Adaptation of gastrointestinal nematode parasites to host genotype: single locus simulation models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Breeding livestock for improved resistance to disease is an increasingly important selection goal. However, the risk of pathogens adapting to livestock bred for improved disease resistance is difficult to quantify. Here, we explore the possibility of gastrointestinal worms adapting to sheep bred for low faecal worm egg count using computer simulation. Our model assumes sheep and worm genotypes interact at a single locus, such that the effect of an A allele in sheep is dependent on worm genotype, and the B allele in worms is favourable for parasitizing the A allele sheep but may increase mortality on pasture. We describe the requirements for adaptation and test if worm adaptation (1) is slowed by non-genetic features of worm infections and (2) can occur with little observable change in faecal worm egg count. Results Adaptation in worms was found to be primarily influenced by overall worm fitness, viz. the balance between the advantage of the B allele during the parasitic stage in sheep and its disadvantage on pasture. Genetic variation at the interacting locus in worms could be from de novo or segregating mutations, but de novo mutations are rare and segregating mutations are likely constrained to have (near) neutral effects on worm fitness. Most other aspects of the worm infection we modelled did not affect the outcomes. However, the host-controlled mechanism to reduce faecal worm egg count by lowering worm fecundity reduced the selection pressure on worms to adapt compared to other mechanisms, such as increasing worm mortality. Temporal changes in worm egg count were unreliable for detecting adaptation, despite the steady environment assumed in the simulations. Conclusions Adaptation of worms to sheep selected for low faecal worm egg count requires an allele segregating in worms that is favourable in animals with improved resistance but less favourable in other animals. Obtaining alleles with this specific property seems unlikely. With support from experimental data, we conclude that selection for low faecal worm egg count should be stable over a short time frame (e.g. 20 years). We are further exploring model outcomes with multiple loci and comparing outcomes to other control strategies. PMID:23714384

Local adaptations to frost in marginal and central populations of the dominant forest tree Fagus sylvatica L. as affected by temperature and extreme drought in common garden experiments.

PubMed

Kreyling, Juergen; Buhk, Constanze; Backhaus, Sabrina; Hallinger, Martin; Huber, Gerhard; Huber, Lukas; Jentsch, Anke; Konnert, Monika; Thiel, Daniel; Wilmking, Martin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

2014-03-01

Local adaptations to environmental conditions are of high ecological importance as they determine distribution ranges and likely affect species responses to climate change. Increased environmental stress (warming, extreme drought) due to climate change in combination with decreased genetic mixing due to isolation may lead to stronger local adaptations of geographically marginal than central populations. We experimentally observed local adaptations of three marginal and four central populations of Fagus sylvaticaL., the dominant native forest tree, to frost over winter and in spring (late frost). We determined frost hardiness of buds and roots by the relative electrolyte leakage in two common garden experiments. The experiment at the cold site included a continuous warming treatment; the experiment at the warm site included a preceding summer drought manipulation. In both experiments, we found evidence for local adaptation to frost, with stronger signs of local adaptation in marginal populations. Winter frost killed many of the potted individuals at the cold site, with higher survival in the warming treatment and in those populations originating from colder environments. However, we found no difference in winter frost tolerance of buds among populations, implying that bud survival was not the main cue for mortality. Bud late frost tolerance in April differed between populations at the warm site, mainly because of phenological differences in bud break. Increased spring frost tolerance of plants which had experienced drought stress in the preceding summer could also be explained by shifts in phenology. Stronger local adaptations to climate in geographically marginal than central populations imply the potential for adaptation to climate at range edges. In times of climate change, however, it needs to be tested whether locally adapted populations at range margins can successfully adapt further to changing conditions.

Longitudinal Change of Self-Perceptions of Aging and Mortality

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective. To understand the association between self-perceptions of aging (SPA) and mortality in late life. Method. The sample (n = 1,507) was drawn from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Aging (baseline age = 65–103 years). We used joint growth curve and survival models on 5 waves of data for a period of 16 years to investigate the random intercept and slope of SPA for predicting all-cause mortality. Results. The unadjusted model revealed that poor SPA at baseline, as well as decline in SPA, increased the risk of mortality (SPA intercept hazard ratio [HR] = 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13, 1.31; SPA slope HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.02, 1.33). This relationship remained significant for the SPA intercept after adjusting for other risk factors including demographics, physical health, cognitive functioning, and well-being. Conclusion. These findings suggest that a single measurement of SPA in late life may be very informative of future long-term vulnerability to health decline and mortality. Furthermore, a dynamic measure of SPA may be indicative of adaptation to age-related changes. This supports a “self-fulfilling” hypothesis, whereby SPA is a lens through which age-related changes are interpreted, and these interpretations can affect future health and health behaviors. PMID:23419867

Above-Ground Dimensions and Acclimation Explain Variation in Drought Mortality of Scots Pine Seedlings from Various Provenances

PubMed Central

Seidel, Hannes; Menzel, Annette

2016-01-01

Seedling establishment is a critical part of the life cycle, thus seedling survival might be even more important for forest persistence under recent and future climate change. Scots pine forests have been disproportionally more affected by climate change triggered forest-dieback. Nevertheless, some Scots pine provenances might prove resilient to future drought events because of the species’ large distributional range, genetic diversity, and adaptation potential. However, there is a lack of knowledge on provenance-specific survival under severe drought events and on how acclimation alters survival rates in Scots pine seedlings. We therefore conducted two drought-induced mortality experiments with potted Scots pine seedlings in a greenhouse. In the first experiment, 760 three-year-old seedlings from 12 different provenances of the south-western distribution range were subjected to the same treatment followed by the mortality experiment in 2014. In the second experiment, we addressed the question of whether acclimation to re-occurring drought stress events and to elevated temperature might decrease mortality rates. Thus, 139 four-year-old seedlings from France, Germany, and Poland were subjected to different temperature regimes (2012–2014) and drought treatments (2013–2014) before the mortality experiment in 2015. Provenances clearly differed in their hazard of drought-induced mortality, which was only partly related to the climate of their origin. Drought acclimation decreased the hazard of drought-induced mortality. Above-ground dry weight and height were the main determinants for the hazard of mortality, i.e., heavier and taller seedlings were more prone to mortality. Consequently, Scots pine seedlings exhibit a considerable provenance-specific acclimation potential against drought mortality and the selection of suitable provenances might thus facilitate seedling establishment and the persistence of Scots pine forest. PMID:27458477

Effect of gestational age on the epidemiology of late-onset sepsis in neonatal intensive care units - a review.

PubMed

Afonso, Elsa Da Palma; Blot, Stijn

2017-10-01

Neonatal sepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Late-onset sepsis affects a significant percentage of infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Most affected newborns are preterm or low birth weight, but late-onset sepsis also affects late preterm and term infants. Understanding how gestational age affects the epidemiology of late-onset sepsis can be of use when defining strategies for its prevention and clinical management in NICU. Areas covered: Available evidence suggests the incidence and mortality of late-onset sepsis is higher in preterm and VLBW infants, but pathogen distribution and risk exposure is similar across all infants admitted to NICU. More research is required for late-onset sepsis in late preterm and term infants admitted to NICU. There is some research insight on the impact of gut bacteria in the epidemiology of Gram-negative sepsis, which could benefit from further dedicated studies. Expert commentary: Understanding the manner in which some infants develop severe sepsis and others don't and what the long-term outcomes are is fundamental to guide management strategies. Further research should focus both on infants' characteristics and on pathogenic processes. The ultimate goal is to be able to design guidelines for prevention and management of sepsis that are adapted to a varied neonatal population.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. PMID:28686743

Ocean Acidification Effects on Atlantic Cod Larval Survival and Recruitment to the Fished Population

PubMed Central

Stiasny, Martina H.; Mittermayer, Felix H.; Sswat, Michael; Voss, Rüdiger; Jutfelt, Fredrik; Chierici, Melissa; Puvanendran, Velmurugu; Mortensen, Atle; Reusch, Thorsten B. H.; Clemmesen, Catriona

2016-01-01

How fisheries will be impacted by climate change is far from understood. While some fish populations may be able to escape global warming via range shifts, they cannot escape ocean acidification (OA), an inevitable consequence of the dissolution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in marine waters. How ocean acidification affects population dynamics of commercially important fish species is critical for adapting management practices of exploited fish populations. Ocean acidification has been shown to impair fish larvae’s sensory abilities, affect the morphology of otoliths, cause tissue damage and cause behavioural changes. Here, we obtain first experimental mortality estimates for Atlantic cod larvae under OA and incorporate these effects into recruitment models. End-of-century levels of ocean acidification (~1100 μatm according to the IPCC RCP 8.5) resulted in a doubling of daily mortality rates compared to present-day CO2 concentrations during the first 25 days post hatching (dph), a critical phase for population recruitment. These results were consistent under different feeding regimes, stocking densities and in two cod populations (Western Baltic and Barents Sea stock). When mortality data were included into Ricker-type stock-recruitment models, recruitment was reduced to an average of 8 and 24% of current recruitment for the two populations, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of including vulnerable early life stages when addressing effects of climate change on fish stocks. PMID:27551924

Ocean Acidification Effects on Atlantic Cod Larval Survival and Recruitment to the Fished Population.

PubMed

Stiasny, Martina H; Mittermayer, Felix H; Sswat, Michael; Voss, Rüdiger; Jutfelt, Fredrik; Chierici, Melissa; Puvanendran, Velmurugu; Mortensen, Atle; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Clemmesen, Catriona

2016-01-01

How fisheries will be impacted by climate change is far from understood. While some fish populations may be able to escape global warming via range shifts, they cannot escape ocean acidification (OA), an inevitable consequence of the dissolution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in marine waters. How ocean acidification affects population dynamics of commercially important fish species is critical for adapting management practices of exploited fish populations. Ocean acidification has been shown to impair fish larvae's sensory abilities, affect the morphology of otoliths, cause tissue damage and cause behavioural changes. Here, we obtain first experimental mortality estimates for Atlantic cod larvae under OA and incorporate these effects into recruitment models. End-of-century levels of ocean acidification (~1100 μatm according to the IPCC RCP 8.5) resulted in a doubling of daily mortality rates compared to present-day CO2 concentrations during the first 25 days post hatching (dph), a critical phase for population recruitment. These results were consistent under different feeding regimes, stocking densities and in two cod populations (Western Baltic and Barents Sea stock). When mortality data were included into Ricker-type stock-recruitment models, recruitment was reduced to an average of 8 and 24% of current recruitment for the two populations, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of including vulnerable early life stages when addressing effects of climate change on fish stocks.

Sea trout adapt their migratory behaviour in response to high salmon lice concentrations.

PubMed

Halttunen, E; Gjelland, K-Ø; Hamel, S; Serra-Llinares, R-M; Nilsen, R; Arechavala-Lopez, P; Skarðhamar, J; Johnsen, I A; Asplin, L; Karlsen, Ø; Bjørn, P-A; Finstad, B

2018-06-01

Sea trout face growth-mortality trade-offs when entering the sea to feed. Salmon lice epizootics resulting from aquaculture have shifted these trade-offs, as salmon lice might both increase mortality and reduce growth of sea trout. We studied mortality and behavioural adaptations of wild sea trout in a large-scale experiment with acoustic telemetry in an aquaculture intensive area that was fallowed (emptied of fish) synchronically biannually, creating large variations in salmon lice concentrations. We tagged 310 wild sea trout during 3 years, and gave half of the individuals a prophylaxis against further salmon lice infestation. There was no difference in survival among years or between treatments. In years of high infestation pressure, however, sea trout remained closer to the river outlet, used freshwater (FW) habitats for longer periods and returned earlier to the river than in the low infestation year. This indicates that sea trout adapt their migratory behaviour by actively choosing FW refuges from salmon lice to escape from immediate mortality risk. Nevertheless, simulations show that these adaptations can lead to lost growth opportunities. Reduced growth can increase long-term mortality of sea trout due to prolonged exposure to size-dependent predation risk, lead to lower fecundity and, ultimately, reduce the likelihood of sea migration. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A comparison of direct aspiration versus stent retriever as a first approach ('COMPASS'): protocol.

PubMed

Turk, Aquilla S; Siddiqui, Adnan H; Mocco, J

2018-02-20

Acute ischemic stroke is a potentially devastating condition and leading cause of morbidity and mortality, affecting an estimated 800 000 people per year in the USA. The natural history of untreated or unrevascularized large vessel occlusions in acute stroke patients results in mortality rates approaching 30%, with only 25% achieving good neurologic outcomes at 90 days. Recently, data have demonstrated that early endovascular recanalization of large vessel occlusions results in better outcomes than medical therapy alone. However, the majority of patients in these studies were treated with a stent retriever based approach. The purpose of COMPASS is to evaluate whether patients treated with a direct aspiration first pass (ADAPT) approach have non-inferior functional outcomes to those treated with a stent retriever as the firstline (SRFL) approach. All patients who meet the inclusion and exclusion criteria and consent to participate will be enrolled at participating centers. Treatment will be randomly assigned by a central web based system in a 1:1 manner to treatment with either ADAPT or SRFL thrombectomy. Statistical methodology is prespecified with details available in the statistical analysis plan. The trial recently completed enrollment, and data collection/verification is ongoing. The final results will be made available on completion of enrollment and follow-up. This paper details the design of the COMPASS trial, a randomized, blinded adjudicator, concurrent, controlled trial of patients treated with either ADAPT or SRFL approaches in order to evaluate whether ADAPT results in non-inferior functional outcome. NCT02466893, Results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: Easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Bell, David M.

2017-01-01

Increasing aridity as a result of climate change is expected to exacerbate tree mortality. Reducing forest basal area – the cross-sectional area of tree stems within a given ground area – can decrease tree competition, which may reduce drought-induced tree mortality. However, neither the magnitude of expected mortality increases, nor the potential effectiveness of basal area reduction, has been quantified in dryland forests such as those of the drought-prone Southwest US. We used thousands of repeatedly measured forest plots to show that unusually warm and dry conditions are related to high tree mortality rates and that mortality is positively related to basal area. Those relationships suggest that while increasing high temperature extremes forecasted by climate models may lead to elevated tree mortality during the 21st century, future tree mortality might be partly ameliorated by reducing stand basal area. This adaptive forest management strategy may provide a window of opportunity for forest managers and policy makers to guide forest transitions to species and/or genotypes more suited to future climates.

Developmental exposure to a complex PAH mixture causes persistent behavioral effects in naive Fundulus heteroclitus (killifish) but not in a population of PAH-adapted killifish.

PubMed

Brown, D R; Bailey, J M; Oliveri, A N; Levin, E D; Di Giulio, R T

2016-01-01

Acute exposures to some individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and complex PAH mixtures are known to cause cardiac malformations and edema in the developing fish embryo. However, the heart is not the only organ impacted by developmental PAH exposure. The developing brain is also affected, resulting in lasting behavioral dysfunction. While acute exposures to some PAHs are teratogenically lethal in fish, little is known about the later life consequences of early life, lower dose subteratogenic PAH exposures. We sought to determine and characterize the long-term behavioral consequences of subteratogenic developmental PAH mixture exposure in both naive killifish and PAH-adapted killifish using sediment pore water derived from the Atlantic Wood Industries Superfund Site. Killifish offspring were embryonically treated with two low-level PAH mixture dilutions of Elizabeth River sediment extract (ERSE) (TPAH 5.04 μg/L and 50.4 μg/L) at 24h post fertilization. Following exposure, killifish were raised to larval, juvenile, and adult life stages and subjected to a series of behavioral tests including: a locomotor activity test (4 days post-hatch), a sensorimotor response tap/habituation test (3 months post hatch), and a novel tank diving and exploration test (3months post hatch). Killifish were also monitored for survival at 1, 2, and 5 months over 5-month rearing period. Developmental PAH exposure caused short-term as well as persistent behavioral impairments in naive killifish. In contrast, the PAH-adapted killifish did not show behavioral alterations following PAH exposure. PAH mixture exposure caused increased mortality in reference killifish over time; yet, the PAH-adapted killifish, while demonstrating long-term rearing mortality, had no significant changes in mortality associated with ERSE exposure. This study demonstrated that early embryonic exposure to PAH-contaminated sediment pore water caused long-term locomotor and behavioral alterations in killifish, and that locomotor alterations could be observed in early larval stages. Additionally, our study highlights the resistance to behavioral alterations caused by low-level PAH mixture exposure in the adapted killifish population. Furthermore, this is the first longitudinal behavioral study to use killifish, an environmentally important estuarine teleost fish, and this testing framework can be used for future contaminant assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Use of an Electronic Death Registration System for Mortality Surveillance During and After Hurricane Sandy: New York City, 2012

PubMed Central

Li, Wenhui; Madsen, Ann M.; Wong, Howard; Das, Tara; Betancourt, Flor M.; Nicaj, Leze; Stayton, Catherine; Matte, Thomas; Begier, Elizabeth M.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated the use of New York City’s (NYC’s) electronic death registration system (EDRS) to conduct mortality surveillance during and after Hurricane Sandy. Methods. We used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for surveillance system evaluation to gather evidence on usefulness, flexibility, stability, timeliness, and quality. We assessed system components, interviewed NYC Health Department staff, and analyzed 2010 to 2012 death records. Results. Despite widespread disruptions, NYC’s EDRS was stable and collected timely mortality data that were adapted to provide storm surveillance with minimal additional resources. Direct-injury fatalities and trends in excess all-cause mortality were rapidly identified, providing useful information for response; however, the time and burden of establishing reports, adapting the system, and identifying indirect deaths limited surveillance. Conclusions. The NYC Health Department successfully adapted its EDRS for near real-time disaster-related mortality surveillance. Retrospective assessment of deaths, advanced methods for case identification and analysis, standardized reports, and system enhancements will further improve surveillance. Local, state, and federal partners would benefit from partnering with vital records to develop EDRSs for surveillance and to promote ongoing evaluation. PMID:26378834

Increased temperatures combined with lowered salinities differentially impact oyster size class growth and mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaPeyre, Megan K.; Rybovich, Molly; Hall, Steven G.; La Peyre, Jerome F.

2016-01-01

Changes in the timing and interaction of seasonal high temperatures and low salinities as predicted by climate change models could dramatically alter oyster population dynamics. Little is known explicitly about how low salinity and high temperature combinations affect spat (<25mm), seed (25–75mm), andmarket (>75mm) oyster growth and mortality. Using field and laboratory studies, this project quantified the combined effects of extremely low salinities (<5) and high temperatures (>30°C) on growth and survival of spat, seed, andmarket-sized oysters. In 2012 and 2013, hatchery-produced oysters were placed in open and closed cages at three sites in Breton Sound, LA, along a salinity gradient that typically ranged from 5 to 20. Growth and mortality were recorded monthly. Regardless of size class, oysters at the lowest salinity site (annualmean = 4.8) experienced significantly highermortality and lower growth than oysters located in higher salinity sites (annual means = 11.1 and 13.0, respectively); furthermore, all oysters in open cages at the two higher salinity sites experienced higher mortality than in closed cages, likely due to predation. To explicitly examine oyster responses to extreme low salinity and high temperature combinations, a series of laboratory studies were conducted. Oysters were placed in 18 tanks in a fully crossed temperature (25°C, 32°C) by salinity (1, 5, and 15) study with three replicates, and repeated at least twice for each oyster size class. Regardless of temperature, seed and market oysters held in low salinity tanks (salinity 1) experienced 100% mortality within 7 days. In contrast, at salinity 5, temperature significantly affected mortality; oysters in all size classes experienced greater than 50%mortality at 32°C and less than 40%mortality at 25°C. At the highest salinity tested (15), only market-sized oysters held at 32°C experienced significant mortality (>60%). These studies demonstrate that high water temperatures (>30°C) and low salinities (<5) negatively impact oyster growth and survival differentially and that high temperatures alone may negatively impact market-sized oysters. It is critical to understand the potential impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes on oyster resources to better adapt and manage for long-term sustainability.

The short-term association of temperature and rainfall with mortality in Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a population level time series analysis

PubMed Central

Ingole, Vijendra; Juvekar, Sanjay; Muralidharan, Veena; Sambhudas, Somnath; Rocklöv, Joacim

2012-01-01

Background Research in mainly developed countries has shown that some changes in weather are associated with increased mortality. However, due to the lack of accessible data, few studies have examined such effects of weather on mortality, particularly in rural regions in developing countries. Objective In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between temperature and rainfall with daily mortality in rural India. Design Daily mortality data were obtained from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Vadu, India. Daily mean temperature and rainfall data were obtained from a regional meteorological center, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. A Poisson regression model was established over the study period (January 2003–May 2010) to assess the short-term relationship between weather variables and total mortality, adjusting for time trends and stratifying by both age and sex. Result Mortality was found to be significantly associated with daily ambient temperatures and rainfall, after controlling for seasonality and long-term time trends. Children aged 5 years or below appear particularly susceptible to the effects of warm and cold temperatures and heavy rainfall. The population aged 20–59 years appeared to face increased mortality on hot days. Most age groups were found to have increased mortality rates 7–13 days after rainfall events. This association was particularly evident in women. Conclusion We found the level of mortality in Vadu HDSS in rural India to be highly affected by both high and low temperatures and rainfall events, with time lags of up to 2 weeks. These results suggest that weather-related mortality may be a public health problem in rural India today. Furthermore, as changes in local climate occur, adaptation measures should be considered to mitigate the potentially negative impacts on public health in these rural communities. PMID:23195513

Climate Changes and Human Health: A Review of the Effect of Environmental Stressors on Cardiovascular Diseases Across Epidemiology and Biological Mechanisms.

PubMed

Giorgini, Paolo; Di Giosia, Paolo; Petrarca, Marco; Lattanzio, Francesco; Stamerra, Cosimo Andrea; Ferri, Claudio

2017-01-01

Climate change is rapidly affecting all the regions of our planet. The most relevant example is global warming, which impacts on the earth's ecosystems, threatening human health. Other effects include extreme variations in temperature and increases in air pollution. These events may negatively impact mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases. In this review, we discuss the main effects of climate changes on cardiovascular diseases, reporting the epidemiological evidences and the biological mechanisms linking climate change consequences to hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart diseases, heart failure and stroke. Up to now, findings suggest that humans acclimate under different weather conditions, even though extreme temperatures and higher levels of air pollution can influence health-related outcomes. In these cases, climate change adversely affects cardiovascular system and the high-risk subjects for cardiovascular diseases are those more exposed. Finally, we examine climate change implications on publich health and suggest adaptation strategies to monitor the high-risk population, and reduce the amount of hospital admissions associated to these events. Such interventions may minimize the costs of public health and reduce the mortality for cardiovascular diseases. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Applying the lessons of maternal mortality reduction to global emergency health

PubMed Central

Skog, Alexander P; Tenner, Andrea G; Wallis, Lee A

2015-01-01

Abstract Over the last few decades, maternal health has been a major focus of the international community and this has resulted in a substantial decrease in maternal mortality globally. Although, compared with maternal illness, medical and surgical emergencies account for far more morbidity and mortality, there has been less focus on global efforts to improve comprehensive emergency systems. The thoughtful and specific application of the concepts used in the effort to decrease maternal mortality could lead to major improvements in global emergency health services. The so-called three-delay model that was developed for maternal mortality can be adapted to emergency service delivery. Adaptation of evaluation frameworks to include emergency sentinel conditions could allow effective monitoring of emergency facilities and further policy development. Future global emergency health efforts may benefit from incorporating strategies for the planning and evaluation of high-impact interventions. PMID:26240463

Forecasting selected specific age mortality rate of Malaysia by using Lee-Carter model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukri Kamaruddin, Halim; Ismail, Noriszura

2018-03-01

Observing mortality pattern and trend is an important subject for any country to maintain a good social-economy in the next projection years. The declining in mortality trend gives a good impression of what a government has done towards macro citizen in one nation. Selecting a particular mortality model can be a tricky based on the approached method adapting. Lee-Carter model is adapted because of its simplicity and reliability of the outcome results with approach of regression. Implementation of Lee-Carter in finding a fitted model and hence its projection has been used worldwide in most of mortality research in developed countries. This paper studies the mortality pattern of Malaysia in the past by using original model of Lee-Carter (1992) and hence its cross-sectional observation for a single age. The data is indexed by age of death and year of death from 1984 to 2012, in which are supplied by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The results are modelled by using RStudio and the keen analysis will focus on the trend and projection of mortality rate and age specific mortality rate in the future. This paper can be extended to different variants extensions of Lee-Carter or any stochastic mortality tool by using Malaysia mortality experience as a centre of the main issue.

Adaptation of the Long-Lived Monocarpic Perennial Saxifraga longifolia to High Altitude1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Morales, Melanie; Fleta-Soriano, Eva; Garcia, Maria B.

2016-01-01

Global change is exerting a major effect on plant communities, altering their potential capacity for adaptation. Here, we aimed at unveiling mechanisms of adaptation to high altitude in an endemic long-lived monocarpic, Saxifraga longifolia, by combining demographic and physiological approaches. Plants from three altitudes (570, 1100, and 2100 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) were investigated in terms of leaf water and pigment contents, and activation of stress defense mechanisms. The influence of plant size on physiological performance and mortality was also investigated. Levels of photoprotective molecules (α-tocopherol, carotenoids, and anthocyanins) increased in response to high altitude (1100 relative to 570 m a.s.l.), which was paralleled by reduced soil and leaf water contents and increased ABA levels. The more demanding effect of high altitude on photoprotection was, however, partly abolished at very high altitudes (2100 m a.s.l.) due to improved soil water contents, with the exception of α-tocopherol accumulation. α-Tocopherol levels increased progressively at increasing altitudes, which paralleled with reductions in lipid peroxidation, thus suggesting plants from the highest altitude effectively withstood high light stress. Furthermore, mortality of juveniles was highest at the intermediate population, suggesting that drought stress was the main environmental driver of mortality of juveniles in this rocky plant species. Population structure and vital rates in the high population evidenced lower recruitment and mortality in juveniles, activation of clonal growth, and absence of plant size-dependent mortality. We conclude that, despite S. longifolia has evolved complex mechanisms of adaptation to altitude at the cellular, whole-plant and population levels, drought events may drive increased mortality in the framework of global change. PMID:27440756

Adaptation of the Long-Lived Monocarpic Perennial Saxifraga longifolia to High Altitude.

PubMed

Munné-Bosch, Sergi; Cotado, Alba; Morales, Melanie; Fleta-Soriano, Eva; Villellas, Jesús; Garcia, Maria B

2016-10-01

Global change is exerting a major effect on plant communities, altering their potential capacity for adaptation. Here, we aimed at unveiling mechanisms of adaptation to high altitude in an endemic long-lived monocarpic, Saxifraga longifolia, by combining demographic and physiological approaches. Plants from three altitudes (570, 1100, and 2100 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) were investigated in terms of leaf water and pigment contents, and activation of stress defense mechanisms. The influence of plant size on physiological performance and mortality was also investigated. Levels of photoprotective molecules (α-tocopherol, carotenoids, and anthocyanins) increased in response to high altitude (1100 relative to 570 m a.s.l.), which was paralleled by reduced soil and leaf water contents and increased ABA levels. The more demanding effect of high altitude on photoprotection was, however, partly abolished at very high altitudes (2100 m a.s.l.) due to improved soil water contents, with the exception of α-tocopherol accumulation. α-Tocopherol levels increased progressively at increasing altitudes, which paralleled with reductions in lipid peroxidation, thus suggesting plants from the highest altitude effectively withstood high light stress. Furthermore, mortality of juveniles was highest at the intermediate population, suggesting that drought stress was the main environmental driver of mortality of juveniles in this rocky plant species. Population structure and vital rates in the high population evidenced lower recruitment and mortality in juveniles, activation of clonal growth, and absence of plant size-dependent mortality. We conclude that, despite S. longifolia has evolved complex mechanisms of adaptation to altitude at the cellular, whole-plant and population levels, drought events may drive increased mortality in the framework of global change. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Hazard Regression Models of Early Mortality in Trauma Centers

PubMed Central

Clark, David E; Qian, Jing; Winchell, Robert J; Betensky, Rebecca A

2013-01-01

Background Factors affecting early hospital deaths after trauma may be different from factors affecting later hospital deaths, and the distribution of short and long prehospital times may vary among hospitals. Hazard regression (HR) models may therefore be more useful than logistic regression (LR) models for analysis of trauma mortality, especially when treatment effects at different time points are of interest. Study Design We obtained data for trauma center patients from the 2008–9 National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB). Cases were included if they had complete data for prehospital times, hospital times, survival outcome, age, vital signs, and severity scores. Cases were excluded if pulseless on admission, transferred in or out, or ISS<9. Using covariates proposed for the Trauma Quality Improvement Program and an indicator for each hospital, we compared LR models predicting survival at 8 hours after injury to HR models with survival censored at 8 hours. HR models were then modified to allow time-varying hospital effects. Results 85,327 patients in 161 hospitals met inclusion criteria. Crude hazards peaked initially, then steadily declined. When hazard ratios were assumed constant in HR models, they were similar to odds ratios in LR models associating increased mortality with increased age, firearm mechanism, increased severity, more deranged physiology, and estimated hospital-specific effects. However, when hospital effects were allowed to vary by time, HR models demonstrated that hospital outliers were not the same at different times after injury. Conclusions HR models with time-varying hazard ratios reveal inconsistencies in treatment effects, data quality, and/or timing of early death among trauma centers. HR models are generally more flexible than LR models, can be adapted for censored data, and potentially offer a better tool for analysis of factors affecting early death after injury. PMID:23036828

Projected health impact of the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance

PubMed Central

Cole, B.; Shimkhada, R.; Morgenstern, H.; Kominski, G.; Fielding, J.; Wu, S.

2005-01-01

Study objective: To estimate the relative health effects of the income and health insurance provisions of the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance. Setting and participants: About 10 000 employees of city contractors are subject to the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance, which establishes an annually adjusted minimum wage ($7.99 per hour in July 2002) and requires employers to contribute $1.25 per hour worked towards employees' health insurance, or, if health insurance is not provided, to add this amount to wages. Design: As part of a comprehensive health impact assessment (HIA), we used estimates of the effects of health insurance and income on mortality from the published literature to construct a model to estimate and compare potential reductions in mortality attributable to the increases in wage and changes in health insurance status among workers covered by the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance. Results: The model predicts that the ordinance currently reduces mortality by 1.4 deaths per year per 10 000 workers at a cost of $27.5 million per death prevented. If the ordinance were modified so that all uninsured workers received health insurance, mortality would be reduced by eight deaths per year per 10 000 workers at a cost of $3.4 million per death prevented. Conclusions: The health insurance provisions of the ordinance have the potential to benefit the health of covered workers far more cost effectively than the wage provisions of the ordinance. This analytical model can be adapted and used in other health impact assessments of related policy actions that might affect either income or access to health insurance in the affected population. PMID:16020640

Projected health impact of the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance.

PubMed

Cole, Brian L; Shimkhada, Riti; Morgenstern, Hal; Kominski, Gerald; Fielding, Jonathan E; Wu, Sheng

2005-08-01

To estimate the relative health effects of the income and health insurance provisions of the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance. About 10 000 employees of city contractors are subject to the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance, which establishes an annually adjusted minimum wage (7.99 US dollars per hour in July 2002) and requires employers to contribute 1.25 US dollars per hour worked towards employees' health insurance, or, if health insurance is not provided, to add this amount to wages. As part of a comprehensive health impact assessment (HIA), we used estimates of the effects of health insurance and income on mortality from the published literature to construct a model to estimate and compare potential reductions in mortality attributable to the increases in wage and changes in health insurance status among workers covered by the Los Angeles City living wage ordinance. The model predicts that the ordinance currently reduces mortality by 1.4 deaths per year per 10,000 workers at a cost of 27.5 million US dollars per death prevented. If the ordinance were modified so that all uninsured workers received health insurance, mortality would be reduced by eight deaths per year per 10,000 workers at a cost of 3.4 million US dollars per death prevented. The health insurance provisions of the ordinance have the potential to benefit the health of covered workers far more cost effectively than the wage provisions of the ordinance. This analytical model can be adapted and used in other health impact assessments of related policy actions that might affect either income or access to health insurance in the affected population.

White-nose syndrome in bats: Illuminating the darkness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cryan, Paul M.; Meteyer, Carol U.; Boyles, Justin G.; Blehert, David S.

2013-01-01

Happy ten-year anniversary to BMC Biology! We can attest to the effectiveness of the journal in reaching a great diversity of scientists based on reader responses to our commentary [1] about bat white-nose syndrome (WNS) two years ago. WNS is still on course to rank among the most destructive wildlife diseases to emerge in recent history, and it has continued to have unprecedented effects on populations of hibernating bats in eastern North America. At the time of our last writing in November 2010, the cold-adapted fungus then presumed to cause WNS (Geomyces destructans) had spread about 1,300 km from an index site in New York (Figure 1). In those early years of the epizootic, WNS caused a staggering wave of mass mortality among all six species of hibernating bats that occur in north-eastern North America. Since November 2010, WNS has spread into eight additional US states and two more Canadian provinces (Figure 1), and has continued to cause mortality in those six species most affected during the early years of the epizootic. Although part of a mostly tragic story has continued to unfold as new areas are affected, anecdotal signs are emerging that all may not be lost when it comes to hibernating bats and WNS. Amid the continued large-scale population declines of certain species, we have yet to see mass mortality in some of the more westerly areas where the fungus was detected two winters ago (Figure 1). Also, recently disease without obvious mortality was diagnosed in gray bats (Myotis grisescens) - an endangered species thought by many two years ago to be at high risk of extinction from WNS. Clearly, large gaps in our understanding of WNS remain, but some have been filled since we last communicated with readers of BMC Biology.

Changes in adaptation of H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in chickens and mallards

PubMed Central

DeJesus, Eric; Costa-Hurtado, Mar; Smith, Diane; Lee, Dong-Hun; Spackman, Erica; Kapczynski, Darrell R.; Torchetti, Mia Kim; Killian, Mary Lea; Suarez, David L.; Swayne, David E.; Pantin-Jackwood, Mary J.

2016-01-01

H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses caused a severe poultry outbreak in the United States (U.S.) during 2015. In order to examine changes in adaptation of this viral lineage, the infectivity, pathogenesis and transmission of poultry H5N2 viruses were investigated in chickens and mallards in comparison to the wild duck 2014 U.S. index H5N2 virus. The four poultry isolates examined had a lower mean bird infectious dose than the index virus but still transmitted poorly to direct contacts. In mallards, two of the H5N2 poultry isolates had similar high infectivity and transmissibility as the index H5N2 virus, the H5N8 U.S. index virus, and a 2005 H5N1 clade 2.2 virus. Mortality occurred with the H5N1 virus and, interestingly, with one of two poultry H5N2 isolates. Increased virus adaptation to chickens was observed with the poultry H5N2 viruses; however these viruses retained high adaptation to mallards but pathogenicity was differently affected. PMID:27632565

The Obstetric Hemorrhage Initiative (OHI) in Florida: The Role of Intervention Characteristics in Influencing Implementation Experiences among Multidisciplinary Hospital Staff.

PubMed

Vamos, Cheryl A; Cantor, Allison; Thompson, Erika L; Detman, Linda A; Bronson, Emily A; Phelps, Annette; Louis, Judette M; Gregg, Anthony R; Curran, John S; Sappenfield, William M

2016-10-01

Objectives Obstetric hemorrhage is one of the leading causes of maternal mortality. The Florida Perinatal Quality Collaborative coordinates a state-wide Obstetric Hemorrhage Initiative (OHI) to assist hospitals in implementing best practices related to this preventable condition. This study examined intervention characteristics that influenced the OHI implementation experiences among Florida hospitals. Methods Purposive sampling was employed to recruit diverse hospitals and multidisciplinary staff members. A semi-structured interview guide was developed based on the following constructs from the intervention characteristics domain of the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research: evidence strength; complexity; adaptability; and packaging. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analyzed using Atlas.ti. Results Participants (n = 50) across 12 hospitals agreed that OHI is evidence-based and supported by various information sources (scientific literature, experience, and other epidemiologic or quality improvement data). Participants believed the OHI was 'average' in complexity, with variation depending on participant's role and intervention component. Participants discussed how the OHI is flexible and can be easily adapted and integrated into different hospital settings, policies and resources. The packaging was also found to be valuable in providing materials and supports (e.g., toolkit; webinars; forms; technical assistance) that assisted implementation across activities. Conclusions for Practice Participants reflected positively with regards to the evidence strength, adaptability, and packaging of the OHI. However, the complexity of the initiative adversely affected implementation experiences and required additional efforts to maximize the initiative effectiveness. Findings will inform future efforts to facilitate implementation experiences of evidence-based practices for hemorrhage prevention, ultimately decreasing maternal morbidity and mortality.

Comparison of the temperature-mortality relationship in foreign born and native born died in France between 2000 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercereau, Luc; Todd, Nicolas; Rey, Gregoire; Valleron, Alain-Jacques

2017-10-01

The daily temperature-mortality relationship is typically U shaped. The temperature of minimum mortality (MMT) has been shown to vary in space (higher at lower latitudes) and time (higher in recent periods). This indicates human populations adapt to their local environment. The pace of this adaptation is unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate the differences in the temperature-mortality relationship in continental France between foreign born and natives. Source data were the 5,273,005 death certificates of individuals living in continental France between 2000 and 2009 at the time of their death. Foreign-born deaths ( N = 573,384) were matched 1:1 with a native-born death based on date of birth, sex, and place of death. Four regions of France based on similarity of their temperatures profiles were defined by unsupervised clustering. For each of these four regions, variations of all causes mortality with season and temperature of the day were modeled and compared between four groups of foreign born (Maghreb, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, and Northern Europe) and matched groups of natives. Overall, the temperature-mortality relationship and MMT were close in foreign born and in native born: The only difference between foreign born and native born concerned the attributable mortality to cold, found in several instances larger in foreign born. There are little differences in France between the temperature-mortality relationships in native born and in foreign born. This supports the hypothesis of an adaptation of these populations to the temperature patterns of continental France, which for those born in Africa differ markedly from the climatic pattern of their birth country.

Comparison of the temperature-mortality relationship in foreign born and native born died in France between 2000 and 2009.

PubMed

Mercereau, Luc; Todd, Nicolas; Rey, Gregoire; Valleron, Alain-Jacques

2017-10-01

The daily temperature-mortality relationship is typically U shaped. The temperature of minimum mortality (MMT) has been shown to vary in space (higher at lower latitudes) and time (higher in recent periods). This indicates human populations adapt to their local environment. The pace of this adaptation is unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate the differences in the temperature-mortality relationship in continental France between foreign born and natives. Source data were the 5,273,005 death certificates of individuals living in continental France between 2000 and 2009 at the time of their death. Foreign-born deaths (N = 573,384) were matched 1:1 with a native-born death based on date of birth, sex, and place of death. Four regions of France based on similarity of their temperatures profiles were defined by unsupervised clustering. For each of these four regions, variations of all causes mortality with season and temperature of the day were modeled and compared between four groups of foreign born (Maghreb, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, and Northern Europe) and matched groups of natives. Overall, the temperature-mortality relationship and MMT were close in foreign born and in native born: The only difference between foreign born and native born concerned the attributable mortality to cold, found in several instances larger in foreign born. There are little differences in France between the temperature-mortality relationships in native born and in foreign born. This supports the hypothesis of an adaptation of these populations to the temperature patterns of continental France, which for those born in Africa differ markedly from the climatic pattern of their birth country.

Heat stress mortality and desired adaptation responses of healthcare system in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Błażejczyk, Anna; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof; Baranowski, Jarosław; Kuchcik, Magdalena

2018-03-01

Heat stress is one of the environmental factors influencing the health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large body of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during heat waves all over the world. This paper presents key results of research dealing with heat-related mortality (HRM) in various cities in Poland which cover about 25% of the country's population. Daily mortality and weather data reports for the years 1991-2000 were used. The intensity of heat stress was assessed by the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The research considers also the projections of future bioclimate to the end of twenty-first century. Brain storming discussions were applied to find necessary adaptation strategies of healthcare system (HCS) in Poland, to minimise negative effects of heat stress. In general, in days with strong and very strong heat stress, ones must expect increase in mortality (in relation to no thermal stress days) of 12 and 47%, respectively. Because of projected rise in global temperature and heat stress frequency, we must expect significant increase in HRM to the end of twenty-first century of even 165% in comparison to present days. The results of research show necessity of urgent implementation of adaptation strategies to heat in HCS.

Trypanosoma cruzi, Etiological Agent of Chagas Disease, Is Virulent to Its Triatomine Vector Rhodnius prolixus in a Temperature-Dependent Manner

PubMed Central

Elliot, Simon L.; Rodrigues, Juliana de O.; Lorenzo, Marcelo G.; Martins-Filho, Olindo A.; Guarneri, Alessandra A.

2015-01-01

It is often assumed that parasites are not virulent to their vectors. Nevertheless, parasites commonly exploit their vectors (nutritionally for example) so these can be considered a form of host. Trypanosoma cruzi, a protozoan found in mammals and triatomine bugs in the Americas, is the etiological agent of Chagas disease that affects man and domestic animals. While it has long been considered avirulent to its vectors, a few reports have indicated that it can affect triatomine fecundity. We tested whether infection imposed a temperature-dependent cost on triatomine fitness. We held infected insects at four temperatures between 21 and 30°C and measured T. cruzi growth in vitro at the same temperatures in parallel. Trypanosoma cruzi infection caused a considerable delay in the time the insects took to moult (against a background effect of temperature accelerating moult irrespective of infection status). Trypanosoma cruzi also reduced the insects’ survival, but only at the intermediate temperatures of 24 and 27°C (against a background of increased mortality with increasing temperatures). Meanwhile, in vitro growth of T. cruzi increased with temperature. Our results demonstrate virulence of a protozoan agent of human disease to its insect vector under these conditions. It is of particular note that parasite-induced mortality was greatest over the range of temperatures normally preferred by these insects, probably implying adaptation of the parasite to perform well at these temperatures. Therefore we propose that triggering this delay in moulting is adaptive for the parasites, as it will delay the next bloodmeal taken by the bug, thus allowing the parasites time to develop and reach the insect rectum in order to make transmission to a new vertebrate host possible. PMID:25793495

Feasibility and efficacy of sepsis management guidelines in a pediatric intensive care unit in Saudi Arabia: a quality improvement initiative.

PubMed

Hasan, Gamal M; Al-Eyadhy, Ayman A; Temsah, Mohamed-Hani A; Al-Haboob, Ali A; Alkhateeb, Mohammad A; Al-Sohime, Fahad

2018-04-25

Evaluation of feasibility and effectiveness of Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) Guidelines implementation at a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) in Saudi Arabia to reduce severe sepsis associated mortality. Retrospective data analysis for a prospective quality improvement (QI) initiative. PICU at King Saud University Medical City, Saudi Arabia. Children ≤14 years of age admitted to the PICU from July 2010 to March 2011 with suspected or proven sepsis. Comparisons were made to a previously admitted group of patients with sepsis from October 2009 to June 2010. Adaptation and implementation of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign-Clinical Practice Guidelines (SSC-CPGs) through AGREE instrument and ADAPTE process. We reported pre- and post-implementation outcome of interest for this QI initiative, annual sepsis-related mortality rate. Furthermore, we reported follow-up of annual mortality rate until December 2016. Sixty-five patients was included in the study (42 in post-guidelines implementation group and 23 in pre-guidelines implementation group). Mortality was insignificantly lower in the post-implementation group (26.2% vs. 47.8%; P = 0.079). However, when adjusted for severity, identified by number of failing organs in the multivariate regression analysis, the mortality difference was favorable for the post-implementation group (P = 0.006). The lower sepsis-related mortality rate was also sustained, with an average mortality rate of 15.11% for the subsequent years (2012-16). Adaptation and implementation of SSC Guidelines in our setting support its feasibility and potential benefits. However, a larger study is recommended to explore detailed compliance rates.

Austrian firearm legislation and its effects on suicide and homicide mortality: A natural quasi-experiment amidst the global economic crisis.

PubMed

König, Daniel; Swoboda, Patrick; Cramer, Robert J; Krall, Christoph; Postuvan, Vita; Kapusta, Nestor D

2018-08-01

Restriction of access to suicide methods has been shown to effectively reduce suicide mortality rates. To examine how the global economic crisis of 2008 and the firearm legislation reform of 1997 affected suicide and homicide mortality rate within Austria. Official data for the years 1985-2016 for firearm certificates, suicide, homicide, unemployment rates and alcohol consumption were examined using auto regressive error and Poisson regression models. Firearm certificates, total suicide mortality rate, suicide and homicides by firearms, and the fraction of firearm suicides/homicides among all suicides/homicides decreased after the firearm legislation reform in 1997. However, significant trend changes can be observed after 2008. The availability of firearm certificates significantly increased and was accompanied by significant changes in trends of firearm suicide and homicide rates. Concurrently, the total suicide mortality rate in 2008, for the first time since 1985, stopped its decreasing trend. While the total homicide rate further decreased, the fraction of firearm homicides among all homicides significantly increased. The initially preventative effect of the firearm legislation reform in Austria in 1997 seems to have been counteracted by the global economic downturn of 2008. Increased firearm availability was associated with corresponding increases in both firearm suicide and firearm homicide mortality. Restrictive firearm legislation should be an imperative part of a country's suicide prevention programme. Although firearm legislation reform may have long-lasting effects, societal changes may facilitate compensatory firearm acquisitions and thus counteract preventive efforts, calling in turn again for adapted counter-measures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

[PROTEOMIC ANALYSIS OF ADAPTIVE MECHANISMS TO SALINITY STRESS IN MARINE GASTROPODS LITTORINA SAXATILIS].

PubMed

Muraeva, O A; Maltseva, A L; Mikhailova, N A; Granovitch, A I

2015-01-01

Salinity is one of the most important abiotic environmental factors affecting marine animals. If salinity deviate from optimum, adaptive mechanisms switch on to maintain organism's physiological activity. In this study, the reaction of the snails Littorina saxatilis from natural habitats and in response to experimental salinity decreasing was analyzed on proteomic level. The isolation of all snails inside their shells and gradually declining mortality was observed under acute experimental salinity decrease (down to 10 per hundred). Proteomic changes were evaluated in the surviving experimental mollusks compared to control individual using differential 2D gel-electrophoresis (DIGE) and subsequent LC-MS/MS-identification of proteins. Approximately 10% of analyzed proteins underwent up- or down regulation during the experiment. Proteins of folding, antioxidant response, intercellular matrix, cell adhesion, cell signaling and metabolic enzymes were identified among them. Proteome changes observed in experimental hypoosmotic stress partially reproduced in the proteomes of mollusks that live in conditions of natural freshening (estuaries). Possible mechanisms involved in the adaptation process of L. saxatilis individuals to hypo-osmotic stress are discussed.

Long-Term Responses of the Endemic Reef-Builder Cladocora caespitosa to Mediterranean Warming

PubMed Central

Kersting, Diego K.; Bensoussan, Nathaniel; Linares, Cristina

2013-01-01

Recurrent climate-induced mass-mortalities have been recorded in the Mediterranean Sea over the past 15 years. Cladocora caespitosa, the sole zooxanthellate scleractinian reef-builder in the Mediterranean, is among the organisms affected by these episodes. Extensive bioconstructions of this endemic coral are very rare at the present time and are threatened by several stressors. In this study, we assessed the long-term response of this temperate coral to warming sea-water in the Columbretes Islands (NW Mediterranean) and described, for the first time, the relationship between recurrent mortality events and local sea surface temperature (SST) regimes in the Mediterranean Sea. A water temperature series spanning more than 20 years showed a summer warming trend of 0.06°C per year and an increased frequency of positive thermal anomalies. Mortality resulted from tissue necrosis without massive zooxanthellae loss and during the 11-year study, necrosis was recorded during nine summers separated into two mortality periods (2003–2006 and 2008–2012). The highest necrosis rates were registered during the first mortality period, after the exceptionally hot summer of 2003. Although necrosis and temperature were significantly associated, the variability in necrosis rates during summers with similar thermal anomalies pointed to other acting factors. In this sense, our results showed that these differences were more closely related to the interannual temperature context and delayed thermal stress after extreme summers, rather than to acclimatisation and adaption processes. PMID:23951016

Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

2015-12-01

Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in the ME scenario are half of that in the HE scenario, and a quarter in the LE scenario. In addition, we set three categories depending on mortality level. Our proposed vulnerability scenarios would enable us to reasonably replicate self-sustained vulnerability change against flood hazard associated with the SSPs.

A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area

Treesearch

John B Bradford; David M Bell

2016-01-01

Increasing aridity as a result of climate change is expected to exacerbate tree mortality. Reducing forest basal area – the cross-sectional area of tree stems within a given ground area – can decrease tree competition, which may reduce drought-induced tree mortality. However, neither the magnitude of expected mortality increases, nor the potential effectiveness of...

Evolution of Caenorhabditis elegans host defense under selection by the bacterial parasite Serratia marcescens.

PubMed

Penley, McKenna J; Ha, Giang T; Morran, Levi T

2017-01-01

Parasites can impose strong selection on hosts. In response, some host populations have adapted via the evolution of defenses that prevent or impede infection by parasites. However, host populations have also evolved life history shifts that maximize host fitness despite infection. Outcrossing and self-fertilization can have contrasting effects on evolutionary trajectories of host populations. While selfing and outcrossing are known to affect the rate at which host populations adapt in response to parasites, these mating systems may also influence the specific traits that underlie adaptation to parasites. Here, we determined the role of evolved host defense versus altered life history,in mixed mating (selfing and outcrossing) and obligately outcrossing C. elegans host populations after experimental evolution with the bacterial parasite, S. marcescens. Similar to previous studies, we found that both mixed mating and obligately outcrossing host populations adapted to S. marcescens exposure, and that the obligately outcrossing populations exhibited the greatest rates of adaptation. Regardless of the host population mating system, exposure to parasites did not significantly alter reproductive timing or total fecundity over the course of experimental evolution. However, both mixed mating and obligately outcrossing host populations exhibited significantly reduced mortality rates in the presence of the parasite after experimental evolution. Therefore, adaptation in both the mixed mating and obligately outcrossing populations was driven, at least in part, by the evolution of increased host defense and not changes in host life history. Thus, the host mating system altered the rate of adaptation, but not the nature of adaptive change in the host populations.

Evolution of Caenorhabditis elegans host defense under selection by the bacterial parasite Serratia marcescens

PubMed Central

Penley, McKenna J.; Ha, Giang T.; Morran, Levi T.

2017-01-01

Parasites can impose strong selection on hosts. In response, some host populations have adapted via the evolution of defenses that prevent or impede infection by parasites. However, host populations have also evolved life history shifts that maximize host fitness despite infection. Outcrossing and self-fertilization can have contrasting effects on evolutionary trajectories of host populations. While selfing and outcrossing are known to affect the rate at which host populations adapt in response to parasites, these mating systems may also influence the specific traits that underlie adaptation to parasites. Here, we determined the role of evolved host defense versus altered life history,in mixed mating (selfing and outcrossing) and obligately outcrossing C. elegans host populations after experimental evolution with the bacterial parasite, S. marcescens. Similar to previous studies, we found that both mixed mating and obligately outcrossing host populations adapted to S. marcescens exposure, and that the obligately outcrossing populations exhibited the greatest rates of adaptation. Regardless of the host population mating system, exposure to parasites did not significantly alter reproductive timing or total fecundity over the course of experimental evolution. However, both mixed mating and obligately outcrossing host populations exhibited significantly reduced mortality rates in the presence of the parasite after experimental evolution. Therefore, adaptation in both the mixed mating and obligately outcrossing populations was driven, at least in part, by the evolution of increased host defense and not changes in host life history. Thus, the host mating system altered the rate of adaptation, but not the nature of adaptive change in the host populations. PMID:28792961

Empirical links between natural mortality and recovery in marine fishes.

PubMed

Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Kuparinen, Anna

2017-06-14

Probability of species recovery is thought to be correlated with specific aspects of organismal life history, such as age at maturity and longevity, and how these affect rates of natural mortality ( M ) and maximum per capita population growth ( r max ). Despite strong theoretical underpinnings, these correlates have been based on predicted rather than realized population trajectories following threat mitigation. Here, we examine the level of empirical support for postulated links between a suite of life-history traits (related to maturity, age, size and growth) and recovery in marine fishes. Following threat mitigation (medium time since cessation of overfishing = 20 years), 71% of 55 temperate populations had fully recovered, the remainder exhibiting, on average, negligible change (impaired recovery). Singly, life-history traits did not influence recovery status. In combination, however, those that jointly reflect length-based mortality at maturity, M α , revealed that recovered populations have higher M α , which we hypothesize to reflect local adaptations associated with greater r max But, within populations, the smaller sizes at maturity generated by overfishing are predicted to increase M α , slowing recovery and increasing its uncertainty. We conclude that recovery potential is greater for populations adapted to high M but that temporal increases in M concomitant with smaller size at maturity will have the opposite effect. The recovery metric documented here ( M α ) has a sound theoretical basis, is significantly correlated with direct estimates of M that directly reflect r max , is not reliant on data-intensive time series, can be readily estimated, and offers an empirically defensible correlate of recovery, given its clear links to the positive and impaired responses to threat mitigation that have been observed in fish populations over the past three decades. © 2017 The Author(s).

Evolution of aging: individual life history trade-offs and population heterogeneity account for mortality patterns across species.

PubMed

Le Cunff, Y; Baudisch, A; Pakdaman, K

2014-08-01

A broad range of mortality patterns has been documented across species, some even including decreasing mortality over age. Whether there exist a common denominator to explain both similarities and differences in these mortality patterns remains an open question. The disposable soma theory, an evolutionary theory of aging, proposes that universal intracellular trade-offs between maintenance/lifespan and reproduction would drive aging across species. The disposable soma theory has provided numerous insights concerning aging processes in single individuals. Yet, which specific population mortality patterns it can lead to is still largely unexplored. In this article, we propose a model exploring the mortality patterns which emerge from an evolutionary process including only the disposable soma theory core principles. We adapt a well-known model of genomic evolution to show that mortality curves producing a kink or mid-life plateaus derive from a common minimal evolutionary framework. These mortality shapes qualitatively correspond to those of Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, medflies, yeasts and humans. Species evolved in silico especially differ in their population diversity of maintenance strategies, which itself emerges as an adaptation to the environment over generations. Based on this integrative framework, we also derive predictions and interpretations concerning the effects of diet changes and heat-shock treatments on mortality patterns. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Empirical Estimation of Climate Impacts Under Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.

2016-12-01

Estimating the impacts of climate change requires a careful account of both the present levels of adaptation observed in different regions and the adaptive capacity those regions might show under climate change. To date, little empirical evidence on either of these components. We present a general approach for empirically estimating the impacts of climate change under both forms of adaptation, applied to the United States. We draw upon relationships between daily temperatures and impacts on mortality, agriculture, and crime, from the econometric climate impacts literature. These are estimated using year-to-year temperature variation within each location. The degree to which regions are vulnerable to high temperatures varies across the US, with warmer regions generally showing less vulnerability. As climate changes, cooler regions will adopt behaviors from warmer regions, such as greater use of air conditioning, and their impact relationships will change accordingly. The rate at which regions have adapted is estimated from changes in these relationships over recent decades. We use these results to model future changes in each US county. as they are exposed to warmer temperatures and adopt characteristics of currently warmer areas. We do this across a full range of climate and statistical uncertainty. The median degree to which adaptation alleviates impacts varies by sector, with 10% lower rates of temperature-induced crime, 15% lower yield losses to maize, to 80% lower rates of heat-related mortality. However, the uncertainty in adaptive capacity remains greater than these changes. Uncertainty in regional response relationships and the rate of adaptation dominate the uncertainty in our total result. We perform two thought experiments to explore the extreme potential for adaptation in light of this uncertainty. We replace the regional relationships with a uniform approach to complete temperature insensitivity, using the normal estimated rate of adaptation. We also apply instantaneous adaptation in each year to the regional relationship corresponding to each region's new climate. We show that the rate of adaptation is the critical obstacle to further mortality benefits, while the small observed range of regional adaptations is causing the low adaptive benefits in crime.

The effect of heat waves on dairy cow mortality.

PubMed

Vitali, A; Felici, A; Esposito, S; Bernabucci, U; Bertocchi, L; Maresca, C; Nardone, A; Lacetera, N

2015-07-01

This study investigated the mortality of dairy cows during heat waves. Mortality data (46,610 cases) referred to dairy cows older than 24mo that died on a farm from all causes from May 1 to September 30 during a 6-yr period (2002-2007). Weather data were obtained from 12 weather stations located in different areas of Italy. Heat waves were defined for each weather station as a period of at least 3 consecutive days, from May 1 to September 30 (2002-2007), when the daily maximum temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference distribution (1971-2000). Summer days were classified as days in heat wave (HW) or not in heat wave (nHW). Days in HW were numbered to evaluate the relationship between mortality and length of the wave. Finally, the first 3 nHW days after the end of a heat wave were also considered to account for potential prolonged effects. The mortality risk was evaluated using a case-crossover design. A conditional logistic regression model was used to calculate odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for mortality recorded in HW compared with that recorded in nHW days pooled and stratified by duration of exposure, age of cows, and month of occurrence. Dairy cows mortality was greater during HW compared with nHW days. Furthermore, compared with nHW days, the risk of mortality continued to be higher during the 3 d after the end of HW. Mortality increased with the length of the HW. Considering deaths stratified by age, cows up to 28mo were not affected by HW, whereas all the other age categories of older cows (29-60, 61-96, and >96mo) showed a greater mortality when exposed to HW. The risk of death during HW was higher in early summer months. In particular, the highest risk of mortality was observed during June HW. Present results strongly support the implementation of adaptation strategies which may limit heat stress-related impairment of animal welfare and economic losses in dairy cow farm during HW. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel hypothesis for the adaptive maintenance of environmental sex determination in a turtle.

PubMed

Spencer, R-J; Janzen, F J

2014-08-22

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is widespread in reptiles, yet its adaptive significance and mechanisms for its maintenance remain obscure and controversial. Comparative analyses identify an ancient origin of TSD in turtles, crocodiles and tuatara, suggesting that this trait should be advantageous in order to persist. Based on this assumption, researchers primarily, and with minimal success, have employed a model to examine sex-specific variation in hatchling phenotypes and fitness generated by different incubation conditions. The unwavering focus on different incubation conditions may be misplaced at least in the many turtle species in which hatchlings overwinter in the natal nest. If overwintering temperatures differentially affect fitness of male and female hatchlings, TSD might be maintained adaptively by enabling embryos to develop as the sex best suited to those overwintering conditions. We test this novel hypothesis using the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta), a species with TSD in which eggs hatch in late summer and hatchlings remain within nests until the following spring. We used a split-clutch design to expose field-incubated hatchlings to warm and cool overwintering (autumn-winter-spring) regimes in the laboratory and measured metabolic rates, energy use, body size and mortality of male and female hatchlings. While overall mortality rates were low, males exposed to warmer overwintering regimes had significantly higher metabolic rates and used more residual yolk than females, whereas the reverse occurred in the cool temperature regime. Hatchlings from mixed-sex nests exhibited similar sex-specific trends and, crucially, they were less energy efficient and grew less than same-sex hatchlings that originated from single-sex clutches. Such sex- and incubation-specific physiological adaptation to winter temperatures may enhance fitness and even extend the northern range of many species that overwinter terrestrially. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

When death is not a problem: Regulating implicit negative affect under mortality salience.

PubMed

Lüdecke, Christina; Baumann, Nicola

2015-12-01

Terror management theory assumes that death arouses existential anxiety in humans which is suppressed in focal attention. Whereas most studies provide indirect evidence for negative affect under mortality salience by showing cultural worldview defenses and self-esteem strivings, there is only little direct evidence for implicit negative affect under mortality salience. In the present study, we assume that this implicit affective reaction towards death depends on people's ability to self-regulate negative affect as assessed by the personality dimension of action versus state orientation. Consistent with our expectations, action-oriented participants judged artificial words to express less negative affect under mortality salience compared to control conditions whereas state-oriented participants showed the reversed pattern. © 2015 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Egg Viability, Mating Frequency and Male Mating Ability Evolve in Populations of Drosophila melanogaster Selected for Resistance to Cold Shock

PubMed Central

Singh, Karan; Kochar, Ekta; Prasad, N. G.

2015-01-01

Background Ability to resist temperature shock is an important component of fitness of insects and other ectotherms. Increased resistance to temperature shock is known to affect life-history traits. Temperature shock is also known to affect reproductive traits such as mating ability and viability of gametes. Therefore selection for increased temperature shock resistance can affect the evolution of reproductive traits. Methods We selected replicate populations of Drosophila melanogaster for resistance to cold shock. We then investigated the evolution of reproductive behavior along with other components of fitness- larval survivorship, adult mortality, fecundity, egg viability in these populations. Results We found that larval survivorship, adult mortality and fecundity post cold shock were not significantly different between selected and control populations. However, compared to the control populations, the selected populations laid significantly higher percentage of fertile eggs (egg viability) 24 hours post cold shock. The selected populations had higher mating frequency both with and without cold shock. After being subjected to cold shock, males from the selected populations successfully mated with significantly more non-virgin females and sired significantly more progeny compared to control males. Conclusions A number of studies have reported the evolution of survivorship in response to selection for temperature shock resistance. Our results clearly indicate that adaptation to cold shock can involve changes in components of reproductive fitness. Our results have important implications for our understanding of how reproductive behavior can evolve in response to thermal stress. PMID:26065704

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Joel D.; Lee, Mihye; Kinney, Patrick L.; Yang, Suijia; Mills, David; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Streeter, Richard; St. Juliana, Alexis; Peers, Jennifer;

Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot.

PubMed

Caputi, Nick; Kangas, Mervi; Denham, Ainslie; Feng, Ming; Pearce, Alan; Hetzel, Yasha; Chandrapavan, Arani

2016-06-01

An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone ( Haliotis roei ) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops ( Amusium balloti ), king ( Penaeus latisulcatus ) and tiger ( P. esculentus ) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.

The effect of birthplace on heat tolerance and mortality in Milan, Italy, 1980 1989

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigotti, Maria Angela; Muggeo, Vito M. R.; Cusimano, Rosanna

2006-07-01

The temperature mortality relationship follows a well-known J-V shaped pattern with mortality excesses recorded at cold and hot temperatures, and minimum at some optimal value, referred as Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). As the MMT, which is used to measure the population heat-tolerance, is higher for people living in warmer places, it has been argued that populations will adapt to temperature changes. We tested this notion by taking advantage of a huge migratory flow that occurred in Italy during the 1950s, when a large number of unemployed people moved from the southern to the industrializing north-western regions. We have analyzed mortality temperature relationships in Milan residents, split by groups identified by area of birth. In order to obtain estimates of the temperature-related risks, log-linear models have been used to fit daily death count data as a function of different explanatory variables. Results suggest that mortality risks differ by birthplace, regardless of the place of residence, namely heat tolerance in adult life could be modulated by outdoor temperature experienced early in life. This indicates that no complete adaptation might occur with rising external environmental temperatures.

Linking livestock snow disaster mortality and environmental stressors in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Quantification based on generalized additive models.

PubMed

Li, Yijia; Ye, Tao; Liu, Weihang; Gao, Yu

2018-06-01

Livestock snow disaster occurs widely in Central-to-Eastern Asian temperate and alpine grasslands. The effects of snow disaster on livestock involve a complex interaction between precipitation, vegetation, livestock, and herder communities. Quantifying the relationship among livestock mortality, snow hazard intensity, and seasonal environmental stressors is of great importance for snow disaster early warning, risk assessments, and adaptation strategies. Using a wide-spatial extent, long-time series, and event-based livestock snow disaster dataset, this study quantified those relationships and established a quantitative model of livestock mortality for prediction purpose for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. Estimations using generalized additive models (GAMs) were shown to accurately predict livestock mortality and mortality rate due to snow disaster, with adjusted-R 2 up to 0.794 and 0.666, respectively. These results showed that a longer snow disaster duration, lower temperatures during the disaster, and a drier summer with less vegetation all contribute significantly and non-linearly to higher mortality (rate), after controlling for elevation and socioeconomic conditions. These results can be readily applied to risk assessment and risk-based adaptation actions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complementary effect of natural and sexual selection against immigrants maintains differentiation between locally adapted fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plath, Martin; Riesch, Rüdiger; Oranth, Alexandra; Dzienko, Justina; Karau, Nora; Schießl, Angela; Stadler, Stefan; Wigh, Adriana; Zimmer, Claudia; Arias-Rodriguez, Lenin; Schlupp, Ingo; Tobler, Michael

2010-08-01

Adaptation to ecologically heterogeneous environments can drive speciation. But what mechanisms maintain reproductive isolation among locally adapted populations? Using poeciliid fishes in a system with naturally occurring toxic hydrogen sulfide, we show that (a) fish from non-sulfidic sites ( Poecilia mexicana) show high mortality (95 %) after 24 h when exposed to the toxicant, while locally adapted fish from sulfidic sites ( Poecilia sulphuraria) experience low mortality (13 %) when transferred to non-sulfidic water. (b) Mate choice tests revealed that P. mexicana females exhibit a preference for conspecific males in non-sulfidic water, but not in sulfidic water, whereas P. sulphuraria females never showed a preference. Increased costs of mate choice in sulfidic, hypoxic water, and the lack of selection for reinforcement due to the low survival of P. mexicana may explain the absence of a preference in P. sulphuraria females. Taken together, our study may be the first to demonstrate independent—but complementary—effects of natural and sexual selection against immigrants maintaining differentiation between locally adapted fish populations.

Complementary effect of natural and sexual selection against immigrants maintains differentiation between locally adapted fish.

PubMed

Plath, Martin; Riesch, Rüdiger; Oranth, Alexandra; Dzienko, Justina; Karau, Nora; Schiessl, Angela; Stadler, Stefan; Wigh, Adriana; Zimmer, Claudia; Arias-Rodriguez, Lenin; Schlupp, Ingo; Tobler, Michael

2010-08-01

Adaptation to ecologically heterogeneous environments can drive speciation. But what mechanisms maintain reproductive isolation among locally adapted populations? Using poeciliid fishes in a system with naturally occurring toxic hydrogen sulfide, we show that (a) fish from non-sulfidic sites (Poecilia mexicana) show high mortality (95 %) after 24 h when exposed to the toxicant, while locally adapted fish from sulfidic sites (Poecilia sulphuraria) experience low mortality (13 %) when transferred to non-sulfidic water. (b) Mate choice tests revealed that P. mexicana females exhibit a preference for conspecific males in non-sulfidic water, but not in sulfidic water, whereas P. sulphuraria females never showed a preference. Increased costs of mate choice in sulfidic, hypoxic water, and the lack of selection for reinforcement due to the low survival of P. mexicana may explain the absence of a preference in P. sulphuraria females. Taken together, our study may be the first to demonstrate independent-but complementary-effects of natural and sexual selection against immigrants maintaining differentiation between locally adapted fish populations.

Delivering golden rice to developing countries.

PubMed

Mayer, Jorge E

2007-01-01

Micronutrient deficiencies create a vicious circle of malnutrition, poverty, and economic dependency that we must strive to break. Golden Rice offers a sustainable solution to reduce the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency-related diseases and mortality, a problem that affects the health of millions of children in all developing countries. The technology is based on the reconstitution of the carotenoid biosynthetic pathway by addition of 2 transgenes. The outcome of this high-tech approach will be provided to end users as nutrient-dense rice varieties that are agronomically identical to their own, locally adapted varieties. This intervention has the potential to reach remote rural populations without access to fortification and supplementation programs. As part of our delivery strategy, we are partnering with government and nongovernment, national and international agricultural institutions to navigate through cumbersome and expensive regulatory regimes that affect the release of genetically modified crops, and to create local demand for the biofortified rice varieties.

Trends in Water Level and Flooding in Dhaka, Bangladesh and Their Impact on Mortality

PubMed Central

Thiele-Eich, Insa; Burkart, Katrin; Simmer, Clemens

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including Dhaka (Bangladesh), which is currently among the fastest growing cities in the world. In the past, high mortality counts have been associated with extreme flood events. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. A distributed lag non-linear model was then used to examine the connection between water levels and mortality. Results indicate that for the period of 2003–2007, which entails two major flood events in 2004 and 2007, high water levels do not lead to a significant increase in relative mortality, which indicates a good level of adaptation and capacity to cope with flooding. However, following low water levels, an increase in mortality could be found. As our trend analysis of past water levels shows that minimum water levels have decreased during the past 100 years, action should be taken to ensure that the exposed population is also well-adapted to drought. PMID:25648177

Larval exposure to 4-nonylphenol and 17β-estradiol affects physiological and behavioral development of seawater adaptation in Atlantic salmon smolts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lerner, Darrren T.; Bjornsson, Bjorn Thrandur; McCormick, Stephen D.

2007-01-01

Population declines of anadromous salmonids are attributed to anthropogenic disturbances including dams, commercial and recreational fisheries, and pollutants, such as estrogenic compounds. Nonylphenol (NP), a xenoestrogen, is widespread in the aquatic environment due to its use in agricultural, industrial, and household products. We exposed Atlantic salmon yolk-sac larvae to waterborne 10 or 100 μg L-1 NP (NP-L or NP-H, respectively), 2 μg L-1 17β-estradiol (E2), or vehicle, for 21 days to investigate their effects on smolt physiology and behavior 1 year later. NP-H caused approximately 50% mortality during exposure, 30 days after exposure, and 60 days after exposure. Mortality rates of NP-L and E2 fish were not affected until 60 days after treatment, when they were 4-fold greater than those of controls. Treatment with NP-L or E2 as yolk-sac larvae decreased gill sodium-potassium-activated adenosine triphosphatase (Na+,K+-ATPase) activity and seawater (SW) tolerance during smolt development, 1 year after exposure. Exposure to NP-L and E2 resulted in a latency to enter SW and reduced preference for SW approximately 2- and 5-fold, respectively. NP-L-exposed fish had 20% lower plasma insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) levels and 35% lower plasma triiodothyronine (T3). Plasma growth hormone and thyroxine (T4) were unaffected. Exposure to E2 did not affect plasma levels of IGF-I, GH, T3, or T4. Both treatment groups exhibited increased plasma cortisol and decreased osmoregulatory capacity in response to a handling stressor. These results suggest that early exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of NP, and other estrogenic compounds, can cause direct and delayed mortalities and that this exposure can have long term, “organizational” effects on life-history events in salmonids.

Canopy gaps affect long-term patterns of tree growth and mortality in mature and old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Andrew N. Gray; Thomas A. Spies; Robert J. Pabst

2012-01-01

Canopy gaps created by tree mortality can affect the speed and trajectory of vegetation growth. Species’ population dynamics, and spatial heterogeneity in mature forests. Most studies focus on plant development within gaps, yet gaps also affect the mortality and growth of surrounding trees, which influence shading and root encroachment into gaps and determine whether,...

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

PubMed Central

Baccini, Michela; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

2017-01-01

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. PMID:28678192

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.

PubMed

Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

2017-07-05

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

Cold Tolerance of Mountain Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Eggs From the Historic and Expanded Ranges.

PubMed

Bleiker, K P; Smith, G D; Humble, L M

2017-10-01

Winter mortality is expected to be a key factor determining the ability of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), to expand its range in Canada. We determined the mortality rate and supercooling points of eggs from the beetle's historic range in southern British Columbia as well as the recently expanded range in north-central Alberta and tested if eggs require an extended period of chilling to reach their maximum cold tolerance. We found no effect of population source or acclimation time on egg cold tolerance. Although 50% of eggs can survive brief exposure to -20.5 °C (LT50), storage at 0.3 °C and -7.5 °C for 59 d resulted in 50% and 100% mortality, respectively. Our results indicate that eggs suffer significant prefreeze mortality and are not well-adapted to overwintering: eggs are unlikely to survive winter throughout much of the beetle's range. Our results provide information that can be used to help model the climatic suitability of mountain pine beetle, including how changes in seasonality associated with new or changing climates may affect winter survival. In addition to lower lethal temperatures, it is critical that the duration of exposure to sublethal cold temperatures are considered in a comprehensive index of cold tolerance and incorporated into survival and population models. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Temporal Changes in Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia: Adaptation to Heat and Maladaptation to Cold.

PubMed

Chung, Yeonseung; Noh, Heesang; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

2017-05-15

Understanding how the temperature-mortality association worldwide changes over time is crucial to addressing questions of human adaptation under climate change. Previous studies investigated the temporal changes in the association over a few discrete time frames or assumed a linear change. Also, most studies focused on attenuation of heat-related mortality and studied the United States or Europe. This research examined continuous temporal changes (potentially nonlinear) in mortality related to extreme temperature (both heat and cold) for 15 cities in Northeast Asia (1972-2009). We used a generalized linear model with splines to simultaneously capture 2 types of nonlinearity: nonlinear association between temperature and mortality and nonlinear change over time in the association. We combined city-specific results to generate country-specific results using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Cold-related mortality remained roughly constant over decades and slightly increased in the late 2000s, with a larger increase for cardiorespiratory deaths than for deaths from other causes. Heat-related mortality rates have decreased continuously over time, with more substantial decrease in earlier decades, for older populations and for cardiorespiratory deaths. Our findings suggest that future assessment of health effects of climate change should account for the continuous changes in temperature-related health risk and variations by factors such as age, cause of death, and location. © Crown copyright 2017.

Conditions and limitations on learning in the adaptive management of mallard harvests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, F.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Dubovsky, J.A.

2002-01-01

In 1995, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service adopted a protocol for the adaptive management of waterfowl hunting regulations (AHM) to help reduce uncertainty about the magnitude of sustainable harvests. To date, the AHM process has focused principally on the midcontinent population of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), whose dynamics are described by 4 alternative models. Collectively, these models express uncertainty (or disagreement) about whether harvest is an additive or a compensatory form of mortality and whether the reproductive process is weakly or strongly density-dependent. Each model is associated with a probability or 'weight,' which describes its relative ability to predict changes in population size. These Bayesian probabilities are updated annually using a comparison of population size predicted under each model with that observed by a monitoring program. The current AHM process is passively adaptive, in the sense that there is no a priori consideration of how harvest decisions might affect discrimination among models. We contrast this approach with an actively adaptive approach, in which harvest decisions are used in part to produce the learning needed to increase long-term management performance. Our investigation suggests that the passive approach is expected to perform nearly as well as an optimal actively adaptive approach, particularly considering the nature of the model set, management objectives and constraints, and current regulatory alternatives. We offer some comments about the nature of the biological hypotheses being tested and describe some of the inherent limitations on learning in the AHM process.

Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

PubMed

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-08-01

Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diverging drought resistance of Scots pine provenances revealed by infrared thermography and mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, Hannes; Schunk, Christian; Matiu, Michael; Menzel, Annette

2016-04-01

Climate warming and more frequent and severe drought events will alter the adaptedness and fitness of tree species. Especially, Scots pine forests have been affected above average by die-off events during the last decades. Assisted migration of adapted provenances might help alleviating impacts by recent climate change and successfully regenerating forests. However, the identification of suitable provenances based on established ecophysiological methods is time consuming, sometimes invasive, and data on provenance-specific mortality are lacking. We studied the performance, stress and survival of potted Scots pine seedlings from 12 European provenances grown in a greenhouse experiment with multiple drought and warming treatments. In this paper, we will present results of drought stress impacts monitored with four different thermal indices derived from infrared thermography imaging as well as an ample mortality study. Percent soil water deficit (PSWD) was shown to be the main driver of drought stress response in all thermal indices. In spite of wet and dry reference surfaces, however, fluctuating environmental conditions, mainly in terms of air temperature and humidity, altered the measured stress response. In linear mixed-effects models, besides PSWD and meteorological covariates, the factors provenance and provenance - PSWD interactions were included. The explanatory power of the models (R2) ranged between 0.51 to 0.83 and thus, provenance-specific responses to strong and moderate drought and subsequent recovery were revealed. However, obvious differences in the response magnitude of provenances to drought were difficult to explicitly link to general features such Mediterranean - continental type or climate at the provenances' origin. We conclude that seedlings' drought resistance may be linked to summer precipitation and their experienced stress levels are a.o. dependent on their above ground dimensions under given water supply. In respect to mortality, previous drought stress experience lowered the current risk and obvious provenance effects were largely related to different growth traits (dimensions). Our experimental results suggest besides evidence for abiotic stress hardening provenance-specific variation in drought resilience. Thus, there is room for provenance-based assisted migration as tool for climate change adaptation in forestry.

A physiological adaptation to undernutrition.

PubMed

Balam, G; Gurri, F

1994-01-01

A total of 432 children under the age of 10 years were measured for height and weight, and the morbidity and mortality indices were studied in six counties of the maize region of the state of Yucatán, Mexico. Undernutrition, because of its relationship to morbidity and mortality, was considered an important selection factor operating between the ages of 6 and 24 months. It was also observed that short stature was an adaptive response to the first years of undernutrition, that allowed children to maintain an adequate body weight under conditions of nutritional stress during the first 10 years of life.

Perceptions of Heat-Susceptibility in Older Persons: Barriers to Adaptation

PubMed Central

Hansen, Alana; Bi, Peng; Nitschke, Monika; Pisaniello, Dino; Newbury, Jonathan; Kitson, Alison

2011-01-01

The increase in the frequency of very hot weather that is a predicted consequence of climate change poses an emerging threat to public health. Extreme heat can be harmful to the health of older persons who are known to be amongst the most vulnerable in the community. This study aimed to investigate factors influencing the ability of older persons to adapt to hot conditions, and barriers to adaptation. A qualitative study was conducted in Adelaide, Australia, involving focus groups and interviews with stakeholders including key personnel involved in aged care, community services, government sectors, emergency services and policy making. Findings revealed a broad range of factors that underpin the heat-susceptibility of the aged. These were categorized into four broad themes relating to: physiology and an age-related decline in health; socioeconomic factors, particularly those influencing air conditioning use; psychological issues including fears and anxieties about extreme heat; and adaptive strategies that could be identified as both enablers and barriers. As a consequence, the ability and willingness to undertake behavior change during heatwaves can therefore be affected in older persons. Additionally, understanding the control panels on modern air conditioners can present challenges for the aged. Improving heat-health knowledge and addressing the social and economic concerns of the older population will assist in minimizing heat-related morbidity and mortality in a warming climate. PMID:22408598

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States.

PubMed

McGeehin, M A; Mirabelli, M

2001-05-01

Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat, measured by maximum or minimum temperature, heat index, and sometimes, other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions, urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly, young children, the poor, and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations, including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer, and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However, the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans, warning systems, and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between heat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention.

Severe mortality of a population of threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoises: the American badger as a potential predator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emblidge, Patrick G.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.; Aiello, Christina M.; Walde, Andrew D.

2015-01-01

In the Mojave Desert of the southwestern United States, adult Agassiz’s desert tortoises Gopherus agassizii typically experience high survival, but population declines associated with anthropogenic impacts led to their listing as a threatened Species under the US Endangered Species Act in 1990. Predation of adult tortoises is not often considered a significant threat as they are adapted to deter most predation attempts. Despite these adaptations, some populations have experienced elevated mortality attributed to predators, suggesting that predation pressure may occasionally increase. During the tortoise activity seasons of 2012 and 2013, we observed unsustainably high mortality in 1 of 4 populations of adult desert tortoises (22 and 84%, respectively) in the western Mojave Desert in the vicinity of Barstow, CA. Photographic evidence from trail cameras and examination of carcass condition suggest that American badgers Taxidea taxus— a sometimes cited but unconfirmed predator of adult tortoises — may have been responsible for some of the mortality observed. We discuss the American badger as a plausible predator of a local tortoise population, but recommend further investigation into these events and the impacts such mortality can have on tortoise persistence.

Joint Analysis of Binomial and Continuous Traits with a Recursive Model: A Case Study Using Mortality and Litter Size of Pigs

PubMed Central

Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel

2014-01-01

This work presents a model for the joint analysis of a binomial and a Gaussian trait using a recursive parametrization that leads to a computationally efficient implementation. The model is illustrated in an analysis of mortality and litter size in two breeds of Danish pigs, Landrace and Yorkshire. Available evidence suggests that mortality of piglets increased partly as a result of successful selection for total number of piglets born. In recent years there has been a need to decrease the incidence of mortality in pig-breeding programs. We report estimates of genetic variation at the level of the logit of the probability of mortality and quantify how it is affected by the size of the litter. Several models for mortality are considered and the best fits are obtained by postulating linear and cubic relationships between the logit of the probability of mortality and litter size, for Landrace and Yorkshire, respectively. An interpretation of how the presence of genetic variation affects the probability of mortality in the population is provided and we discuss and quantify the prospects of selecting for reduced mortality, without affecting litter size. PMID:24414548

Can local adaptation explain varying patterns of herbivory tolerance in a recently introduced woody plant in North America?

PubMed

Long, Randall W; Bush, Susan E; Grady, Kevin C; Smith, David S; Potts, Daniel L; D'Antonio, Carla M; Dudley, Tom L; Fehlberg, Shannon D; Gaskin, John F; Glenn, Edward P; Hultine, Kevin R

2017-01-01

Patterns of woody-plant mortality have been linked to global-scale environmental changes, such as extreme drought, heat stress, more frequent and intense fires, and episodic outbreaks of insects and pathogens. Although many studies have focussed on survival and mortality in response to specific physiological stresses, little attention has been paid to the role of genetic heritability of traits and local adaptation in influencing patterns of plant mortality, especially in non-native species. Tamarix spp. is a dominant, non-native riparian tree in western North America that is experiencing dieback in some areas of its range due to episodic herbivory by the recently introduced northern tamarisk leaf beetle ( Diorhabda carinulata ). We propose that genotype × environment interactions largely underpin current and future patterns of Tamarix mortality. We anticipate that (i) despite its recent introduction, and the potential for significant gene flow, Tamarix in western North America is generally adapted to local environmental conditions across its current range in part due to hybridization of two species; (ii) local adaptation to specific climate, soil and resource availability will yield predictable responses to episodic herbivory; and (iii) the ability to cope with a combination of episodic herbivory and increased aridity associated with climate change will be largely based on functional tradeoffs in resource allocation. This review focusses on the potential heritability of plant carbon allocation patterns in Tamarix , focussing on the relative contribution of acquired carbon to non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pools versus other sinks as the basis for surviving episodic disturbance. Where high aridity and/or poor edaphic position lead to chronic stress, NSC pools may fall below a minimum threshold because of an imbalance between the supply of carbon and its demand by various sinks. Identifying patterns of local adaptation of traits related to resource allocation will improve forecasting of Tamarix population susceptibility to episodic herbivory.

Can local adaptation explain varying patterns of herbivory tolerance in a recently introduced woody plant in North America?

PubMed Central

Bush, Susan E.; Grady, Kevin C.; Smith, David S.; Potts, Daniel L.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Dudley, Tom L.; Fehlberg, Shannon D.; Gaskin, John F.; Glenn, Edward P.; Hultine, Kevin R.

2017-01-01

Abstract Patterns of woody-plant mortality have been linked to global-scale environmental changes, such as extreme drought, heat stress, more frequent and intense fires, and episodic outbreaks of insects and pathogens. Although many studies have focussed on survival and mortality in response to specific physiological stresses, little attention has been paid to the role of genetic heritability of traits and local adaptation in influencing patterns of plant mortality, especially in non-native species. Tamarix spp. is a dominant, non-native riparian tree in western North America that is experiencing dieback in some areas of its range due to episodic herbivory by the recently introduced northern tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata). We propose that genotype × environment interactions largely underpin current and future patterns of Tamarix mortality. We anticipate that (i) despite its recent introduction, and the potential for significant gene flow, Tamarix in western North America is generally adapted to local environmental conditions across its current range in part due to hybridization of two species; (ii) local adaptation to specific climate, soil and resource availability will yield predictable responses to episodic herbivory; and (iii) the ability to cope with a combination of episodic herbivory and increased aridity associated with climate change will be largely based on functional tradeoffs in resource allocation. This review focusses on the potential heritability of plant carbon allocation patterns in Tamarix, focussing on the relative contribution of acquired carbon to non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pools versus other sinks as the basis for surviving episodic disturbance. Where high aridity and/or poor edaphic position lead to chronic stress, NSC pools may fall below a minimum threshold because of an imbalance between the supply of carbon and its demand by various sinks. Identifying patterns of local adaptation of traits related to resource allocation will improve forecasting of Tamarix population susceptibility to episodic herbivory. PMID:28852513

[Outcome and survival of pediatric Short Bowel Syndrome (SBS)].

PubMed

Martínez, M; Fabeiro, M; Dalieri, M; Barcellandi, P; Prozzi, M; Hernández, J; Alberti, M; Fernández, A

2011-01-01

SBS is the main cause of intestinal failure (IF) in children and has a high morbility and mortality. to analyze factors associated with the outcome and survival of SBS children. analytical, descriptive and retrospective study. We include patients with residual bowel length (RBL) ≤ 40 cm. OUTCOME is analyzed in groups: dead (D), adapted (A), parenteral nutrition dependant (NPD), and transplanted (Tx) according to: bowel anatomy, diagnosis, prematurely, year of beginning of IF, duration of IF, cholestasis (CB > 2 mg/dl) and thrombosis. Survival is analyzed with Kaplan Meier. 63 patients were included: RBL x 21 ± 11 cm, preserved colon 46%, prematures 41%, neonatal resection 78%, duration of IF x 0.66 years. 54% had cholestasis (CB x 5.29 ± 2.35 mg/dl) and 25% had thrombosis. D 33%, A 27%, PND 30% and Tx 10%. Adapted patients had longer RBL (p 0.001) and more preserved colon (p 0.017). 1 year survival was 86%, 2 years 70% and 3 years 66%. Age at death: x 2.3 years. Causes of death: hepatic failure 62%, lack of venous access 19%, sepsis 10%, others 10%. Factors related to death were shorter RBL (p 0.045), cholestasis (0.049, admittance to the center before 2000 (p 0.02). SBS had a high mortality and 1/3 of patients could adapt requiring up to 5 years. Adaptation was in relation to anatomic factors. Mortality was related to.

Heat-related deaths in hot cities: estimates of human tolerance to high temperature thresholds.

PubMed

Harlan, Sharon L; Chowell, Gerardo; Yang, Shuo; Petitti, Diana B; Morales Butler, Emmanuel J; Ruddell, Benjamin L; Ruddell, Darren M

2014-03-20

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥ 65 during the months May-October for years 2000-2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90-97 °F; 32.2-36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

The Effects of Wildfire on Mortality and Resources for an Arboreal Marsupial: Resilience to Fire Events but Susceptibility to Fire Regime Change

PubMed Central

Banks, Sam C.; Knight, Emma J.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Lindenmayer, David B.

2011-01-01

Background Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. Methodology/Principal Findings We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees) were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. Conclusions/Significance Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological legacies of previous forest generations in post-fire regrowth forests but will cease to be recruited to future regrowth forests if the interval between severe fires becomes too rapid for hollow formation. PMID:21826221

Blow me down: A new perspective on Aloe dichotoma mortality from windthrow

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Windthrow, the uprooting of trees during storms associated with strong winds, is a well-established cause of mortality in temperate regions of the world, often with large ecological consequences. However, this phenomenon has received little attention within arid regions and is not well documented in southern Africa. Slow rates of post-disturbance recovery and projected increases in extreme weather events in arid areas mean that windthrow could be more common and have bigger impacts on these ecosystems in the future. This is of concern due to slow rates of post-disturbance recovery in arid systems and projected increases in extreme weather events in these areas. This study investigated the spatial pattern, magnitude and likely causes of windthrown mortality in relation to other forms of mortality in Aloe dichotoma, an iconic arid-adapted arborescent succulent and southern Africa climate change indicator species. Results We found that windthrown mortality was greatest within the equatorward summer rainfall zone (SRZ) of its distribution (mean = 31%, n = 11), and was derived almost exclusively from the larger adult age class. A logistic modelling exercise indicated that windthrown mortality was strongly associated with greater amounts of warm season (summer) rainfall in the SRZ, higher wind speeds, and leptosols. A statistically significant interaction term between higher summer rainfall and wind speeds further increased the odds of being windthrown. While these results would benefit from improvements in the resolution of wind and substrate data, they do support the hypothesised mechanism for windthrow in A. dichotoma. This involves powerful storm gusts associated with either the current or subsequent rainfall event, heavy convective rainfall, and an associated increase in soil malleability. Shallow rooting depths in gravel-rich soils and an inflexible, top-heavy canopy structure make individuals especially prone to windthrown mortality during storms. Conclusions Results highlight the importance of this previously unrecognised form of mortality in A. dichotoma, especially since it seems to disproportionately affect reproductively mature adult individuals in an infrequently recruiting species. Smaller, more geographically isolated and adult dominated populations in the summer rainfall zone are likely to be more vulnerable to localised extinction due to windthrow events. PMID:24641794

Blow me down: a new perspective on Aloe dichotoma mortality from windthrow.

PubMed

Jack, Samuel Linton; Hoffman, Michael Timm; Rohde, Rick Frederick; Durbach, Ian; Archibald, Margaret

2014-03-18

Windthrow, the uprooting of trees during storms associated with strong winds, is a well-established cause of mortality in temperate regions of the world, often with large ecological consequences. However, this phenomenon has received little attention within arid regions and is not well documented in southern Africa. Slow rates of post-disturbance recovery and projected increases in extreme weather events in arid areas mean that windthrow could be more common and have bigger impacts on these ecosystems in the future. This is of concern due to slow rates of post-disturbance recovery in arid systems and projected increases in extreme weather events in these areas. This study investigated the spatial pattern, magnitude and likely causes of windthrown mortality in relation to other forms of mortality in Aloe dichotoma, an iconic arid-adapted arborescent succulent and southern Africa climate change indicator species. We found that windthrown mortality was greatest within the equatorward summer rainfall zone (SRZ) of its distribution (mean = 31%, n = 11), and was derived almost exclusively from the larger adult age class. A logistic modelling exercise indicated that windthrown mortality was strongly associated with greater amounts of warm season (summer) rainfall in the SRZ, higher wind speeds, and leptosols. A statistically significant interaction term between higher summer rainfall and wind speeds further increased the odds of being windthrown. While these results would benefit from improvements in the resolution of wind and substrate data, they do support the hypothesised mechanism for windthrow in A. dichotoma. This involves powerful storm gusts associated with either the current or subsequent rainfall event, heavy convective rainfall, and an associated increase in soil malleability. Shallow rooting depths in gravel-rich soils and an inflexible, top-heavy canopy structure make individuals especially prone to windthrown mortality during storms. Results highlight the importance of this previously unrecognised form of mortality in A. dichotoma, especially since it seems to disproportionately affect reproductively mature adult individuals in an infrequently recruiting species. Smaller, more geographically isolated and adult dominated populations in the summer rainfall zone are likely to be more vulnerable to localised extinction due to windthrow events.

Structural and climatic determinants of demographic rates of Scots pine forests across the Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Vilà-Cabrera, Albert; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Vayreda, Jordi; Retana, Javier

2011-06-01

The demographic rates of tree species typically show large spatial variation across their range. Understanding the environmental factors underlying this variation is a key topic in forest ecology, with far-reaching management implications. Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) covers large areas of the Northern Hemisphere, the Iberian Peninsula being its southwestern distribution limit. In recent decades, an increase in severe droughts and a densification of forests as a result of changes in forest uses have occurred in this region. Our aim was to use climate and stand structure data to explain mortality and growth patterns of Scots pine forests across the Iberian Peninsula. We used data from 2392 plots dominated by Scots pine, sampled for the National Forest Inventory of Spain. Plots were sampled from 1986 to 1996 (IFN2) and were resampled from 1997 to 2007 (IFN3), allowing for the calculation of growth and mortality rates. We fitted linear models to assess the response of growth and mortality rates to the spatial variability of climate, climatic anomalies, and forest structure. Over the period of approximately 10 years between the IFN2 and IFN3, the amount of standing dead trees increased 11-fold. Higher mortality rates were related to dryness, and growth was reduced with increasing dryness and temperature, but results also suggested that effects of climatic stressors were not restricted to dry sites only. Forest structure was strongly related to demographic rates, suggesting that stand development and competition are the main factors associated with demography. In the case of mortality, forest structure interacted with climate, suggesting that competition for water resources induces tree mortality in dry sites. A slight negative relationship was found between mortality and growth, indicating that both rates are likely to be affected by the same stress factors. Additionally, regeneration tended to be lower in plots with higher mortality. Taken together, our results suggest a large-scale self-thinning related to the recent densification of Scots pine forests. This process appears to be enhanced by dry conditions and may lead to a mismatch in forest turnover. Forest management may be an essential adaptive tool under the drier conditions predicted by most climate models.

Scaling up implementation of ART: Organizational culture and early mortality of patients initiated on ART in Nairobi, Kenya.

PubMed

Ayah, Richard

2018-01-01

Scaling up the antiretroviral (ART) program in Kenya has involved a strategy of using clinical guidelines coupled with decentralization of treatment sites. However decentralization pushes clinical responsibility downwards to health facilities run by lower cadre staff. Whether the organizational culture in health facilities affects the outcomes despite the use of clinical guidelines has not been explored. This study aimed to demonstrate the relationship between organizational culture and early mortality and those lost to follow up (LTFU) among patients enrolled for HIV care. A stratified sample of 31 health facilities in Nairobi County offering ART services were surveyed. Data of patients enrolled on ART and LTFU for the 12 months ending 30th June 2013 were abstracted. Mortality and LTFU were determined and used to rank health facilities. In the facilities with the lowest and highest mortality and LTFU key informant interviews were conducted using a tool adapted from team climate assessment measurement questionnaire and competing value framework tool to assess organizational culture. The strength of association between early mortality, LTFU and organizational culture was tested. Half (51.8%) of the 5,808 patients enrolled into care in 31 health facilities over the 12-month study period were started on ART. Of these 48 (1.6% 95% CI 0.8%-2.4%) died within three months of starting treatment, while a further 125 (4.2% 95% CI 2.1%-6.6%) were LTFU giving an attrition rate of 5.7% (95% CI 3.3%-8.6%). Tuberculosis was the most common comorbidity associated with high early mortality and high LTFU. Organizational culture, specifically an adhocratic type was found to be associated with low early mortality and low LTFU of patients enrolled for HIV care (P = 0.034). The use of ART clinical guidelines in a decentralized health systems are not sufficient to achieve required service delivery outcomes. The attrition rate above would mean 85,000 Kenyans missing care based on current HIV disease burden figures. Deliberate efforts to improve individual health facility leadership and inculcate an adhocratic culture may lower mortality and morbidity associated with initiating ART.

Recessions, Job Loss, and Mortality Among Older US Adults

PubMed Central

Beckfield, Jason

2014-01-01

Objectives. We analyzed how recessions and job loss jointly shape mortality risks among older US adults. Methods. We used data for 50 states from the Health and Retirement Study and selected individuals who were employed at ages 45 to 66 years during 1992 to 2011. We assessed whether job loss affects mortality risks, whether recessions moderate the effect of job loss on mortality, and whether individuals who do and do not experience job loss are differentially affected by recessions. Results. Compared with individuals not experiencing job loss, mortality risks among individuals losing their job in a recession were strongly elevated (hazard ratio = 1.6; 95% confidence interval = 1.1, 2.3). Job loss during normal times or booms is not associated with mortality. For employed workers, we found a reduction in mortality risks if local labor market conditions were depressed, but this result was not consistent across different model specifications. Conclusions. Recessions increase mortality risks among older US adults who experience job loss. Health professionals and policymakers should target resources to this group during recessions. Future research should clarify which health conditions are affected by job loss during recessions and whether access to health care following job loss moderates this relation. PMID:25211731

Studies of reproductive output of the desert tortoise at Joshua Tree National Park, the Mojave National Preserve, and comparative sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovich, J.E.; Medica, P.; Avery, H.; Meyer, K.; Bowser, G.; Brown, A.

1999-01-01

The stability of any population is a function of how many young are produced and how many survive to reproduce. Populations with low reproductive output and high mortality will decline until such time as deaths and births are at least balanced. Monitoring populations of sensitive species is particularly important to ensure that conditions do not favor decline or extinction. Turtles, including tortoises, are characterized by life history traits that make them slow to adapt to rapid changes in mortality and habitat alteration. Long life spans (in excess of 50 years), late maturity, and widely variable nest success are traits that allowed turtles to outlive the dinosaurs, but they are poorly adapted for life in the rapidly changing modern world. Increased mortality of young and adults can seriously tip the delicate balance required for turtles to survive.

Local adaptation in transgenerational responses to predators

PubMed Central

Walsh, Matthew R.; Castoe, Todd; Holmes, Julian; Packer, Michelle; Biles, Kelsey; Walsh, Melissa; Munch, Stephan B.; Post, David M.

2016-01-01

Environmental signals can induce phenotypic changes that span multiple generations. Along with phenotypic responses that occur during development (i.e. ‘within-generation’ plasticity), such ‘transgenerational plasticity’ (TGP) has been documented in a diverse array of taxa spanning many environmental perturbations. New theory predicts that temporal stability is a key driver of the evolution of TGP. We tested this prediction using natural populations of zooplankton from lakes in Connecticut that span a large gradient in the temporal dynamics of predator-induced mortality. We reared more than 120 clones of Daphnia ambigua from nine lakes for multiple generations in the presence/absence of predator cues. We found that temporal variation in mortality selects for within-generation plasticity while consistently strong (or weak) mortality selects for increased TGP. Such results provide us the first evidence for local adaptation in TGP and argue that divergent ecological conditions select for phenotypic responses within and across generations. PMID:26817775

Long-term mortality risk and life expectancy following recurrent hypertensive disease of pregnancy.

PubMed

Theilen, Lauren H; Meeks, Huong; Fraser, Alison; Esplin, M Sean; Smith, Ken R; Varner, Michael W

2018-04-07

Women with a history of hypertensive disease of pregnancy have increased risks for early mortality from multiple causes. The effect of recurrent hypertensive disease of pregnancy on mortality risk and life expectancy is unknown. We sought to determine whether recurrent hypertensive disease of pregnancy is associated with increased mortality risks. In this retrospective cohort study, we used birth certificate data to determine the number of pregnancies affected by hypertensive disease of pregnancy for each woman delivering in Utah from 1939 through 2012. We assigned women to 1 of 3 groups based on number of affected pregnancies: 0, 1, or ≥2. Exposed women had ≥1 affected singleton pregnancy and lived in Utah for ≥1 year postpartum. Exposed women were matched 1:2 to unexposed women by age, year of childbirth, and parity. Underlying cause of death was determined from death certificates. Mortality risks by underlying cause of death were compared between exposed and unexposed women as a function of number of affected pregnancies. Cox regressions controlled for infant sex, gestational age, parental education, ethnicity, and marital status. We identified 57,384 women with ≥1 affected pregnancy (49,598 women with 1 affected pregnancy and 7786 women with ≥2 affected pregnancies). These women were matched to 114,768 unexposed women. As of 2016, 11,894 women were deceased: 4722 (8.2%) exposed and 7172 (6.3%) unexposed. Women with ≥2 affected pregnancies had increased mortality from all causes (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-2.36), diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.33; 95% confidence interval, 2.21-8.47), ischemic heart disease (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.30; 95% confidence interval, 2.02-5.40), and stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.10; 95% confidence interval, 2.62-9.92). For women whose index pregnancy delivered from 1939 through 1959 (n = 10,488), those with ≥2 affected pregnancies had shorter additional life expectancies than mothers who had only 1 or 0 hypertensive pregnancies (48.92 vs 51.91 vs 55.48 years, respectively). Hypertensive diseases of pregnancy are associated with excess risks for early all-cause mortality and some cause-specific mortality, and these risks increase further with recurrent disease. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Air temperature-related human health outcomes: current impact and estimations of future risks in Central Italy.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Moriondo, Marco; Profili, Francesco; Francesconi, Paolo; Trombi, Giacomo; Bindi, Marco; Gensini, Gian Franco; Orlandini, Simone

2012-12-15

The association between air temperature and human health is described in detail in a large amount of literature. However, scientific publications estimating how climate change will affect the population's health are much less extensive. In this study current evaluations and future predictions of the impact of temperature on human health in different geographical areas have been carried out. Non-accidental mortality and hospitalizations, and daily average air temperatures have been obtained for the 1999-2008 period for the ten main cities in Tuscany (Central Italy). High-resolution city-specific climatologic A1B scenarios centered on 2020 and 2040 have been assessed. Generalized additive and distributed lag models have been used to identify the relationships between temperature and health outcomes stratified by age: general adults (<65), elderly (aged 65-74) and very elderly (≥75). The cumulative impact (over a lag-period of 30 days) of the effects of cold and especially heat, was mainly significant for mortality in the very elderly, with a higher impact on coastal plain than inland cities: 1 °C decrease/increase in temperature below/above the threshold was associated with a 2.27% (95% CI: 0.17-4.93) and 15.97% (95% CI: 7.43-24.51) change in mortality respectively in the coastal plain cities. A slight unexpected increase in short-term cold-related mortality in the very elderly, with respect to the baseline period, is predicted for the following years in half of the cities considered. Most cities also showed an extensive predicted increase in short-term heat-related mortality and a general increase in the annual temperature-related elderly mortality rate. These findings should encourage efforts to implement adaptation actions conducive to policy-making decisions, especially for planning short- and long-term health intervention strategies and mitigation aimed at preventing and minimizing the consequences of climate change on human health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolution of complex life cycles in trophically transmitted helminths. II. How do life-history stages adapt to their hosts?

PubMed

Parker, G A; Ball, M A; Chubb, J C

2015-02-01

We review how trophically transmitted helminths adapt to the special problems associated with successive hosts in complex cycles. In intermediate hosts, larvae typically show growth arrest at larval maturity (GALM). Theoretical models indicate that optimization of size at GALM requires larval mortality rate to increase with time between infection and GALM: low larval growth or paratenicity (no growth) arises from unfavourable growth and mortality rates in the intermediate host and low transmission rates to the definitive host. Reverse conditions favour high GALM size or continuous growth. Some support is found for these predictions. Intermediate host manipulation involves predation suppression (which decreases host vulnerability before the larva can establish in its next host) and predation enhancement (which increases host vulnerability after the larva can establish in its next host). Switches between suppression and enhancement suggest adaptive manipulation. Manipulation conflicts can occur between larvae of different ages/species a host individual. Larvae must usually develop to GALM before becoming infective to the next host, possibly due to trade-offs, e.g. between growth/survival in the present host and infection ability for the next host. In definitive hosts, if mortality rate is constant, optimal growth before switching to reproduction is set by the growth/morality rate ratio. Rarely, no growth occurs in definitive hosts, predicted (with empirical support) when larval size on infection exceeds growth/mortality rate. Tissue migration patterns and residence sites may be explained by variations in growth/mortality rates between host gut and soma, migration costs and benefits of releasing eggs in the gut. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Sex differences, sexual selection, and ageing: an experimental evolution approach.

PubMed

Maklakov, Alexei A; Bonduriansky, Russell; Brooks, Robert C

2009-10-01

Life-history (LH) theory predicts that selection will optimize the trade-off between reproduction and somatic maintenance. Reproductive ageing and finite life span are direct consequences of such optimization. Sexual selection and conflict profoundly affect the reproductive strategies of the sexes and thus can play an important role in the evolution of life span and ageing. In theory, sexual selection can favor the evolution of either faster or slower ageing, but the evidence is equivocal. We used a novel selection experiment to investigate the potential of sexual selection to influence the adaptive evolution of age-specific LH traits. We selected replicate populations of the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus for age at reproduction ("Young" and "Old") either with or without sexual selection. We found that LH selection resulted in the evolution of age-specific reproduction and mortality but these changes were largely unaffected by sexual selection. Sexual selection depressed net reproductive performance and failed to promote adaptation. Nonetheless, the evolution of several traits differed between males and females. These data challenge the importance of current sexual selection in promoting rapid adaptation to environmental change but support the hypothesis that sex differences in LH-a historical signature of sexual selection-are key in shaping trait responses to novel selection.

Ingestional and transgenerational effects of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the pale grass blue butterfly

PubMed Central

Taira, Wataru; Hiyama, Atsuki; Nohara, Chiyo; Sakauchi, Ko; Otaki, Joji M.

2015-01-01

One important public concern in Japan is the potential health effects on animals and humans that live in the Tohoku-Kanto districts associated with the ingestion of foods contaminated with artificial radionuclides from the collapsed Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, transgenerational or heritable effects of radiation exposure are also important public concerns because these effects could cause long-term changes in animal and human populations. Here, we concisely review our findings and implications related to the ingestional and transgenerational effects of radiation exposure on the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, which coexists with humans. The butterfly larval ingestion of contaminated leaves found in areas of human habitation, even at low doses, resulted in morphological abnormalities and death for some individuals, whereas other individuals were not affected, at least morphologically. This variable sensitivity serves as a basis for the adaptive evolution of radiation resistance. The distribution of abnormality and mortality rates from low to high doses fits well with a Weibull function model or a power function model. The offspring generated by morphologically normal individuals that consumed contaminated leaves exhibited high mortality rates when fed contaminated leaves; importantly, low mortality rates were restored when they were fed non-contaminated leaves. Our field monitoring over 3 years (2011–2013) indicated that abnormality and mortality rates peaked primarily in the fall of 2011 and decreased afterwards to normal levels. These findings indicate high impacts of early exposure and transgenerationally accumulated radiation effects over a specific period; however, the population regained normality relatively quickly after ∼15 generations within 3 years. PMID:26661851

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

PubMed

Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-08-16

Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a ) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b ) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c ) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

The effect of mortality salience on women's judgments of male faces.

PubMed

Vaughn, James E; Bradley, Kristopher I; Byrd-Craven, Jennifer; Kennison, Shelia M

2010-08-30

Previous research has shown that individuals who are reminded of their death exhibited a greater desire for offspring than those who were not reminded of their death. The present research investigated whether being reminded of mortality affects mate selection behaviors, such as facial preference judgments. Prior research has shown that women prefer more masculine faces when they are at the high versus low fertility phase of their menstrual cycles. We report an experiment in which women were tested either at their high or fertility phase. They were randomly assigned to either a mortality salience (MS) or control condition and then asked to judge faces ranging from extreme masculine to extreme feminine. The results showed that women's choice of the attractive male face was determined by an interaction between fertility phase and condition. In control conditions, high fertility phase women preferred a significantly more masculine face than women who were in a lower fertility phase of their menstrual cycles. In MS conditions, high fertility phase women preferred a significantly less masculine (i.e., more average) face than women who were in a low fertility phase. The results indicate that biological processes, such as fertility phase, involved in mate selection are sensitive to current environmental factors, such as death reminders. This sensitivity may serve as an adaptive compromise when choosing a mate in potentially adverse environmental conditions.

Lessons to learn from epidemiologic studies in ARDS.

PubMed

McNicholas, Bairbre A; Rooney, Grainne M; Laffey, John G

2018-02-01

Recent advances in our understanding of the epidemiology of ARDS has generated key insights into the incidence, risk factors, demographics, management and outcomes from this devastating clinical syndrome. ARDS occurs in 10% of all ICU patients, in 23% of all mechanically ventilated patients, with 5.5 cases per ICU bed each year. Although some regional variation exists regarding ARDS incidence, this may be less than previously thought. Subphenotypes are increasingly identified within the ARDS cohort, with studies identifying a 'hyperinflammatory' or 'reactive' subgroup that has a higher mortality, and may respond differently to therapeutic interventions. Demographic factors, such as race, may also affect the therapeutic response. Although mortality in ARDS is decreasing in clinical trials, it remains unchanged at approximately 40% in major observational studies. Modifiable ventilatory management factors, including PEEP, airway pressures, and respiratory rate are associated with mortality in ARDS. Hospital and ICU organizational factors play a role in outcome, whereas socioeconomic status is independently associated with survival in patients with ARDS. The Kigali adaptation of the Berlin ARDS definition may provide useful insights into the burden of ARDS in the developing world. ARDS exerts a substantial disease burden, with 40% of patients dying in hospital. Diverse factors, including patient-related factors such as age and illness severity, country level socioeconomic status, and ventilator management and ICU organizational factors each contribute to outcome from ARDS. Addressing these issues provides opportunities to improve outcome in patients with ARDS.

Decreased carbon limitation of litter respiration in a mortality-affected pinon-juniper woodland

Treesearch

Erin Berryman; John D. Marshall; Thom Rahn; Marcie Litvak; John Butnor

2013-01-01

Microbial respiration depends on microclimatic variables and carbon (C) substrate availability, all of which are altered when ecosystems experience major disturbance. Widespread tree mortality, currently affecting pinon-juniper ecosystems in southwestern North America, may affect C substrate availability in several ways, for example, via litterfall pulses and loss of...

Indirect child mortality estimation technique to identify trends of under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Ayele, Dawit G; Zewotir, Temesgen; Mwambi, Henry

2016-03-01

In sub-Saharan African countries, the chance of a child dying before the age of five years is high. The problem is similar in Ethiopia, but it shows a decrease over years. The 2000; 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey results were used for this work. The purpose of the study is to detect the pattern of under-five child mortality overtime. Indirect child mortality estimation technique is adapted to examine the under-five child mortality trend in Ethiopia. From the result, it was possible to see the trend of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia. The under-five child mortality shows a decline in Ethiopia. From the study, it can be seen that there is a positive correlation between mother and child survival which is almost certain in any population. Therefore, this study shows the trend of under-five mortality in Ethiopia and decline over time.

Statistical Analysis of Factors Affecting Child Mortality in Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Zoya; Kamal, Asifa; Kamal, Asma

2016-06-01

Child mortality is a composite indicator reflecting economic, social, environmental, healthcare services, and their delivery situation in a country. Globally, Pakistan has the third highest burden of fetal, maternal, and child mortality. Factors affecting child mortality in Pakistan are investigated by using Binary Logistic Regression Analysis. Region, education of mother, birth order, preceding birth interval (the period between the previous child birth and the index child birth), size of child at birth, and breastfeeding and family size were found to be significantly important with child mortality in Pakistan. Child mortality decreased as level of mother's education, preceding birth interval, size of child at birth, and family size increased. Child mortality was found to be significantly higher in Balochistan as compared to other regions. Child mortality was low for low birth orders. Child survival was significantly higher for children who were breastfed as compared to those who were not.

Acclimatization to extreme heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

2017-12-01

Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Natuzzi, Eileen S; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-08-03

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands

PubMed Central

Natuzzi, Eileen S.; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. PMID:27091867

Adaptive Servo-Ventilation for Central Sleep Apnea in Systolic Heart Failure.

PubMed

Cowie, Martin R; Woehrle, Holger; Wegscheider, Karl; Angermann, Christiane; d'Ortho, Marie-Pia; Erdmann, Erland; Levy, Patrick; Simonds, Anita K; Somers, Virend K; Zannad, Faiez; Teschler, Helmut

2015-09-17

Central sleep apnea is associated with poor prognosis and death in patients with heart failure. Adaptive servo-ventilation is a therapy that uses a noninvasive ventilator to treat central sleep apnea by delivering servo-controlled inspiratory pressure support on top of expiratory positive airway pressure. We investigated the effects of adaptive servo-ventilation in patients who had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and predominantly central sleep apnea. We randomly assigned 1325 patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction of 45% or less, an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) of 15 or more events (occurrences of apnea or hypopnea) per hour, and a predominance of central events to receive guideline-based medical treatment with adaptive servo-ventilation or guideline-based medical treatment alone (control). The primary end point in the time-to-event analysis was the first event of death from any cause, lifesaving cardiovascular intervention (cardiac transplantation, implantation of a ventricular assist device, resuscitation after sudden cardiac arrest, or appropriate lifesaving shock), or unplanned hospitalization for worsening heart failure. In the adaptive servo-ventilation group, the mean AHI at 12 months was 6.6 events per hour. The incidence of the primary end point did not differ significantly between the adaptive servo-ventilation group and the control group (54.1% and 50.8%, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97 to 1.31; P=0.10). All-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality were significantly higher in the adaptive servo-ventilation group than in the control group (hazard ratio for death from any cause, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.55; P=0.01; and hazard ratio for cardiovascular death, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.65; P=0.006). Adaptive servo-ventilation had no significant effect on the primary end point in patients who had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and predominantly central sleep apnea, but all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were both increased with this therapy. (Funded by ResMed and others; SERVE-HF ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00733343.).

Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

PubMed Central

Harlan, Sharon L.; Chowell, Gerardo; Yang, Shuo; Petitti, Diana B.; Morales Butler, Emmanuel J.; Ruddell, Benjamin L.; Ruddell, Darren M.

2014-01-01

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide. PMID:24658410

Neonatal size and infant mortality at high altitude in the western Himalaya.

PubMed

Wiley, A S

1994-07-01

A prospective study was undertaken in Ladakh, India, a high-altitude region of the Himalaya, to investigate the effects of small average birth size on neonatal mortality. While such studies exist from high-altitude regions of the New World and shed light on the adaptive status of high-altitude-dwelling populations there, this is the first to examine this relationship in the Himalaya. In a sample of 168 newborns, birthweight and other anthropometric measurements were reduced relative to Andean and Tibetan newborns. Logistic regression and hazard analysis showed that neonatal biological characteristics such as weight, fatness, and circumferences were important predictors of survival probabilities of infants, especially in the neonatal period. Low Rohrer's Ponderal Index (PI) was particularly strongly related to poor survival outcome. Males and females showed no significant differences in mortality risk. Data derived from reproductive histories revealed that neonatal mortality accounted for 70-80% of total infant mortality in Ladakh. Compared to other high-altitude studies, small newborn size in Ladakh was associated with much higher mortality risks; mortality risk rose dramatically with birthweights below the mean (2,764 grams), which characterized 50% of all newborns. It is argued that newborns in Ladakh are subject to strong directional selective forces that favor higher birthweights that incur lower risks of neonatal mortality, while Andean infants are subject to relatively mild selection pressure at both ends of the birthweight distribution. Given the overall small size at birth of Ladakhi newborns and the poor survival outcomes of newborns below the mean, it is suggested that this population is less well adapted in a biological sense to the stresses inherent in this high-altitude environment than are Andean populations, perhaps due to the relatively recent colonization of the area and the substantial genetic admixture that has occurred in the past.

Can local adaptation explain varying patterns of herbivory tolerance in a recently introduced woody plant in North America?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Trends in tree mortality have been linked to global scale environmental changes, such as extreme drought and heat stress, more frequent and intense fires, and increased episodic outbreaks of insects and pathogens. Finer scale studies have also focused on survival and mortality in response to physiol...

A risk-adapted approach is beneficial in the management of bilateral femoral shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients: an analysis based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society.

PubMed

Steinhausen, Eva; Lefering, Rolf; Tjardes, Thorsten; Neugebauer, Edmund A M; Bouillon, Bertil; Rixen, Dieter

2014-05-01

Today, there is a trend toward damage-control orthopedics (DCO) in the management of multiple trauma patients with long bone fractures. However, there is no widely accepted concept. A risk-adapted approach seems to result in low acute morbidity and mortality. Multiple trauma patients with bilateral femoral shaft fractures (FSFs) are considered to be more severely injured. The objective of this study was to validate the risk-adapted approach in the management of multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF. Data analysis is based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society (1993-2008, n = 42,248). Multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF were analyzed in subgroups according to the type of primary operative strategy. Outcome parameters were mortality and major complications as (multiple) organ failure and sepsis. A total of 379 patients with bilateral FSF were divided into four groups as follows: (1) no operation (8.4%), (2) bilateral temporary external fixation (DCO) (50.9%), bilateral primary definitive osteosynthesis (early total care [ETC]) (25.1%), and primary definitive osteosynthesis of one FSF and DCO contralaterally (mixed) (15.6%). Compared with the ETC group, the DCO group was more severely injured. The incidence of (multiple) organ failure and mortality rates were higher in the DCO group but without significance. Adjusted for injury severity, there was no significant difference of mortality rates between DCO and ETC. Injury severity and mortality rates were significantly increased in the no-operation group. The mixed group was similar to the ETC group regarding injury severity and outcome. In Germany, both DCO and ETC are practiced in multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF so far. The unstable or potentially unstable patient is reasonably treated with DCO. The clearly stable patient is reasonably treated with nailing. When in doubt, the patient is probably not totally stable, and the safest precaution may be to use DCO as a risk-adapted approach. Therapeutic study, level IV. Epidemiologic study, level III.

Adaptive responses and disruptive effects: how major wildfire influences kinship-based social interactions in a forest marsupial.

PubMed

Banks, Sam C; Blyton, Michaela D J; Blair, David; McBurney, Lachlan; Lindenmayer, David B

2012-02-01

Environmental disturbance is predicted to play a key role in the evolution of animal social behaviour. This is because disturbance affects key factors underlying social systems, such as demography, resource availability and genetic structure. However, because natural disturbances are unpredictable there is little information on their effects on social behaviour in wild populations. Here, we investigated how a major wildfire affected cooperation (sharing of hollow trees) by a hollow-dependent marsupial. We based two alternative social predictions on the impacts of fire on population density, genetic structure and resources. We predicted an adaptive social response from previous work showing that kin selection in den-sharing develops as competition for den resources increases. Thus, kin selection should occur in burnt areas because the fire caused loss of the majority of hollow-bearing trees, but no detectable mortality. Alternatively, fire may have a disruptive social effect, whereby postfire home range-shifts 'neutralize' fine-scale genetic structure, thereby removing opportunities for kin selection between neighbours. Both predictions occurred: the disruptive social effect in burnt habitat and the adaptive social response in adjacent unburnt habitat. The latter followed a massive demographic influx to unburnt 'refuge' habitat that increased competition for dens, leading to a density-related kin selection response. Our results show remarkable short-term plasticity of animal social behaviour and demonstrate how the social effects of disturbance extend into undisturbed habitat owing to landscape-scale demographic shifts. We predicted long-term changes in kinship-based cooperative behaviour resulting from the genetic and resource impacts of forecast changes to fire regimes in these forests. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Does donor proliferation in development aid for health affect health service delivery and population health? Cross-country regression analysis from 1995 to 2010.

PubMed

Pallas, Sarah Wood; Ruger, Jennifer Prah

2017-05-01

Previous literature suggests that increasing numbers of development aid donors can reduce aid effectiveness but this has not been tested in the health sector, which has experienced substantial recent growth in aid volume and number of donors. Based on annual data for 1995-2010 on 139 low- and middle-income countries that received health sector aid from donors reporting to the OECD's Creditor Reporting System, the study used two-step system generalized method of moments regression models to test whether the number of health aid donors and an index of health aid donor fragmentation affect health services (measured by DTP3 immunization rate) or health outcomes (measured by infant mortality rate) for three subsectors of health aid. For total health aid and for the general and basic health aid subsector, controlling for economic and political conditions, increases in the number of donors were associated with increases in DTP3 immunization rate and reductions in infant mortality while increases in the donor fragmentation index were associated with decreases in DTP3 immunization rate and increases in infant mortality, though none of these relationships were statistically significant. For the population and reproductive health aid subsector, a one percent increase in the number of donors was associated with a 0.23 percent decrease in DTP3 immunization ( P <  0.01) while a one percent increase in donor fragmentation was associated with a 0.54 percent increase in DTP3 immunization rate ( P <  0.01); associations with infant mortality rates for this subsector were similar to those for total health aid. The results do not provide clear evidence in support of the hypothesis that donor proliferation negatively impacts development results in the health sector. Aid effectiveness policy prescriptions should distinguish responses to donor proliferation versus donor fragmentation and be adapted to specific subsectors of health aid. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Viral replication rate regulates clinical outcome and CD8 T cell responses during highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus infection in mice.

PubMed

Hatta, Yasuko; Hershberger, Karen; Shinya, Kyoko; Proll, Sean C; Dubielzig, Richard R; Hatta, Masato; Katze, Michael G; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro; Suresh, M

2010-10-07

Since the first recorded infection of humans with H5N1 viruses of avian origin in 1997, sporadic human infections continue to occur with a staggering mortality rate of >60%. Although sustained human-to-human transmission has not occurred yet, there is a growing concern that these H5N1 viruses might acquire this trait and raise the specter of a pandemic. Despite progress in deciphering viral determinants of pathogenicity, we still lack crucial information on virus/immune system interactions pertaining to severe disease and high mortality associated with human H5N1 influenza virus infections. Using two human isolates of H5N1 viruses that differ in their pathogenicity in mice, we have defined mechanistic links among the rate of viral replication, mortality, CD8 T cell responses, and immunopathology. The extreme pathogenicity of H5N1 viruses was directly linked to the ability of the virus to replicate rapidly, and swiftly attain high steady-state titers in the lungs within 48 hours after infection. The remarkably high replication rate of the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus did not prevent the induction of IFN-β or activation of CD8 T cells, but the CD8 T cell response was ineffective in controlling viral replication in the lungs and CD8 T cell deficiency did not affect viral titers or mortality. Additionally, BIM deficiency ameliorated lung pathology and inhibited T cell apoptosis without affecting survival of mice. Therefore, rapidly replicating, highly lethal H5N1 viruses could simply outpace and overwhelm the adaptive immune responses, and kill the host by direct cytopathic effects. However, therapeutic suppression of early viral replication and the associated enhancement of CD8 T cell responses improved the survival of mice following a lethal H5N1 infection. These findings suggest that suppression of early H5N1 virus replication is key to the programming of an effective host response, which has implications in treatment of this infection in humans.

A never-ending succession of epidemics? Mortality in early-modern York.

PubMed

Galley, C

1994-04-01

Early-modern cities are often perceived to be centres of high mortality and under constant siege from a barrage of epidemics. However, few urban mortality rates have been calculated and by employing parish register evidence from the regional capital of York, the thesis that the city was subjected to continual sudden increases in mortality can be firmly rejected. Infant mortality was high but remained virtually constant between 1561 and 1700. About a quarter of all infants did not survive to reach their first birthday and neonatal mortality was especially severe. From the mid-seventeenth century a series of epidemics increased child mortality although overall levels of mortality were not significantly affected. Relatively little can be said about adult mortality and apart from two periods of 'crisis' mortality there is little to suggest that adults were greatly affected by epidemics. Indeed, for many adults the urban environment appears to have posed no great threat to health and most could look forward to a relatively long life in the city. York's mortality regime was very similar to that of the smaller market town of Gainsborough where high levels of mortality remained stable throughout much of the early-modern period.

Application and Validation of a GIS Model for Local Tsunami Vulnerability and Mortality Risk Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbitz, C. B.; Frauenfelder, R.; Kaiser, G.; Glimsdal, S.; Sverdrup-thygeson, K.; Løvholt, F.; Gruenburg, L.; Mc Adoo, B. G.

2015-12-01

The 2011 Tōhoku tsunami caused a high number of fatalities and massive destruction. Data collected after the event allow for retrospective analyses. Since 2009, NGI has developed a generic GIS model for local analyses of tsunami vulnerability and mortality risk. The mortality risk convolves the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The hazard is represented by the maximum tsunami flow depth (with a corresponding likelihood), the exposure is described by the population density in time and space, while the vulnerability is expressed by the probability of being killed as a function of flow depth and building class. The analysis is further based on high-resolution DEMs. Normally a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period is applied for vulnerability and mortality risk analysis. Hence, the model was first employed for a tsunami forecast scenario affecting Bridgetown, Barbados, and further developed in a forecast study for the city of Batangas in the Philippines. Subsequently, the model was tested by hindcasting the 2009 South Pacific tsunami in American Samoa. This hindcast was based on post-tsunami information. The GIS model was adapted for optimal use of the available data and successfully estimated the degree of mortality.For further validation and development, the model was recently applied in the RAPSODI project for hindcasting the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami in Sendai and Ishinomaki. With reasonable choices of building vulnerability, the estimated expected number of fatalities agree well with the reported death toll. The results of the mortality hindcast for the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami substantiate that the GIS model can help to identify high tsunami mortality risk areas, as well as identify the main risk drivers.The research leading to these results has received funding from CONCERT-Japan Joint Call on Efficient Energy Storage and Distribution/Resilience against Disasters (http://www.concertjapan.eu; project RAPSODI - Risk Assessment and design of Prevention Structures fOr enhanced tsunami DIsaster resilience http://www.ngi.no/en/Project-pages/RAPSODI/), and from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk reduction for Tsunamis in Europe http://www.astarte-project.eu/).

[Women and acute coronary syndrome with ST elevation: Excess mortality related to longer delays and spontaneous coronary dissection].

PubMed

Benamer, H; Motreff, P; Jessen, P; Piquet, M; Haziza, F; Chevalier, B

2015-12-01

The outcome of patients with ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has been increasingly improving in the general population over the past few decades. However, detailed analysis of the results show that the reduction in mortality rates is higher in males compared to their female counterparts. The excess mortality rate observed in women, though sometimes questioned, has been widely reported in the literature. The higher mortality rate observed in women with ST elevation ACS can be explained by the presence of aggravating clinical factors such as older age, a higher percentage of diabetics, and a higher frequency of cardiogenic shock. Other factors pertaining to patient management seem to negatively impact the outcome. These factors include a lower use of reperfusion strategies, longer time to treatment mainly as a result of diagnostic uncertainty with respect to a disease, which is believed to affect principally the male gender. The doubts that female patients themselves and their families have about the nature of their symptoms are also present in the medical environment but cease to exist in the catheterization laboratory. This is illustrated in the first clinical case that we present here. Coronary reperfusion is the cornerstone of the therapeutic management of MI. In this context, bleeding complications associated with the implemented treatments can also result in an increased mortality rate in this more vulnerable population. When all the factors likely to influence the prognosis are taken into account, excess mortality seems to persist in women, especially in younger patients. As described in the second clinical case, a distinct physio-pathological factor, more frequent in women, could account for this higher mortality rate. Indeed, spontaneous coronary dissection and intramural hematoma are not always easy to diagnose and may not be adequately managed by reperfusion treatments. In addition, these coronary reperfusion strategies are probably not adapted to this type of ACS. It is, therefore, very important to identify them by angiography coupled with intra-coronary imaging examination when necessary and to carry out further research to adjust our PCI techniques to this pathology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting morbidity and mortality on-farm and on-station in the Ethiopian highland sheep.

PubMed

Bekele, T; Woldeab, T; Lahlou-Kassi, A; Sherington, J

1992-12-01

Factors affecting morbidity and mortality of the Ethiopian highland sheep were studied both on-farm and on-station at Debre Berhan between 1989 and 1990. Primary causes of infectious origin resulted in high proportional morbidity (88.4% on-farm) and mortality (72.9% on-farm and 71.8% on-station) rates. Nutritional and managemental factors were also responsible for mortalities in lambs. The most frequent secondary causes of morbidity and/or mortality were ectoparasites and nasal myiasis. Health management interventions on-station were not high enough to produce performance improvements above the on-farm levels. However, the occurrence of gastrointestinal parasites significantly (P < 0.05) differed between the two management systems. The frequency of some of the major causes of morbidity and mortality such as pneumonia, fasciolasis and enteritis were significantly (P < 0.01) affected by season and age of an animal. In order to alleviate the major health constraints identified in this study, a proper health management intervention involving vaccination, strategic anthelmintic treatment and feeding management are suggested.

Brief Report: Investigating Uncertainty in the Minimum Mortality Temperature: Methods and Application to 52 Spanish Cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

The minimum mortality temperature from J- or U-shaped curves varies across cities with different climates. This variation conveys information on adaptation, but ability to characterize is limited by the absence of a method to describe uncertainty in estimated minimum mortality temperatures. We propose an approximate parametric bootstrap estimator of confidence interval (CI) and standard error (SE) for the minimum mortality temperature from a temperature-mortality shape estimated by splines. The coverage of the estimated CIs was close to nominal value (95%) in the datasets simulated, although SEs were slightly high. Applying the method to 52 Spanish provincial capital cities showed larger minimum mortality temperatures in hotter cities, rising almost exactly at the same rate as annual mean temperature. The method proposed for computing CIs and SEs for minimums from spline curves allows comparing minimum mortality temperatures in different cities and investigating their associations with climate properly, allowing for estimation uncertainty.

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality

PubMed Central

Hondula, David M.; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-01-01

Background: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to “adaptation uncertainty” (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. Objectives: This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. Methods: We estimated impacts for 2070–2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Results: The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Conclusions: Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634 PMID:28885979

Post-infectious immune suppression: a new paradigm of severe infections.

PubMed

Grimaldi, D; Llitjos, J F; Pène, F

2014-10-01

Infectious diseases remain a major public health issue in both developing and developed countries. For instance, there is still a high rate of morbidity and mortality due to seasonal influenza outbreaks and severe bacterial sepsis, despite major advances in their prevention and treatment. It is now clear that severe influenza and bacterial infections promote susceptibility for superinfections worsening the prognosis. Various immune defects acquired during severe infection may result in complex immunosuppression and may affect both innate and adaptive components. Some animal models of these common clinical situations have demonstrated the increased susceptibility of infected hosts to secondary infectious insult and allowed assessing the regulatory mechanisms. Such pathophysiological advances may help create new immunomodulatory therapeutics for infected patients exposed to severe secondary sepsis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Advances in the Diagnosis and Management of Persistent Pulmonary Hypertension of the Newborn (PPHN)

PubMed Central

Konduri, G. Ganesh; Kim, U. Olivia

2009-01-01

Synopsis Rapid evaluation of a neonate who is cyanotic and in respiratory distress is essential for achieving a good outcome. Persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (PPHN) can be a primary cause or a contributing factor to respiratory failure, particularly in neonates born at ≥34 weeks gestation. PPHN represents a failure of normal postnatal adaptation that occurs at birth in the pulmonary circulation. Rapid advances in therapy in recent years have lead to a remarkable decrease in mortality for the affected infants. However, infants who survive PPHN are at a significant risk for long term hearing and neuro-developmental impairments. This review focuses on the diagnosis, recent advances in management and recommendations for the long term follow-up of infants with PPHN. PMID:19501693

Scotland's national naloxone program: The prison experience.

PubMed

Horsburgh, Kirsten; McAuley, Andrew

2018-05-01

Launched in 2011, the Scottish national naloxone program marked an important development in public health policy. Central to its design were strategies to engage prisoners given their elevated risk of drug-related death in the weeks following liberation. Implementation across Scottish prisons has posed particular challenges linked to both operational issues within prison establishments and individual factors affecting staff delivering, and prisoners engaging, with the program. Barriers have been overcome through innovation and partnership working. This commentary has described how the development of the program in prisons has adapted to these challenges to a point where a largely consistent model is in place and where prisoners-on-release are reaping the benefits in terms of reduced opioid-related mortality. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Mitigating old tree mortality in long-unburned, fire-dependent forests: a synthesis

Treesearch

Sharon M. Hood

2010-01-01

This report synthesizes the literature and current state of knowledge pertaining to reintroducing fire in stands where it has been excluded for long periods and the impact of these introductory fires on overstory tree injury and mortality. Only forested ecosystems in the United States that are adapted to survive frequent fire are included. Treatment options that...

Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. Risks assessments, however, generally focus on univariate statistics even when multiple stressors are considered. Concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves have been observed to cause a suite of extreme impacts on natural and human systems alike. For example, they can substantially affect vegetation health, prompting tree mortality, and thereby facilitating insect outbreaks and fires. In addition, hot droughts have the potential to trigger and intensify fires and can cause severe economical damage. By promoting disease spread, extremely hot and dry conditions also strongly affect human health. We analyse the co-occurrence of dry and hot summers and show that these are strongly correlated for many regions, inducing a much higher frequency of concurrent hot and dry summers than what would be assumed from the independent combination of the univariate statistics. Our results demonstrate how the dependence structure between variables affects the occurrence frequency of multivariate extremes. Assessments based on univariate statistics can thus strongly underestimate risks associated with given extremes, if impacts depend on multiple (dependent) variables. We conclude that a multivariate perspective is necessary in order to appropriately assess changes in climate extremes and their impacts, and to design adaptation strategies.

Experimental evaluation of reproductive response to climate warming in an oviparous skink.

PubMed

Lu, Hongliang; Wang, Yong; Tang, Wenqi; DU, Weiguo

2013-06-01

The impact of climate warming on organisms is increasingly being recognized. The experimental evaluation of phenotypically plastic responses to warming is a critical step in understanding the biological effects and adaptive capacity of organisms to future climate warming. Oviparous Scincella modesta live in deeply-shaded habitats and they require low optimal temperatures during embryonic development, which makes them suitable subjects for testing the effects of warming on reproduction. We raised adult females and incubated their eggs under different thermal conditions that mimicked potential climate warming. Female reproduction, embryonic development and hatchling traits were monitored to evaluate the reproductive response to warming. Experimental warming induced females to lay eggs earlier, but it did not affect the developmental stage of embryos at oviposition or the reproductive output. The high temperatures experienced by gravid females during warming treatments reduced the incubation period and increased embryonic mortality. The locomotor performance of hatchlings was not affected by the maternal thermal environment, but it was affected by the warming treatment during embryonic development. Our results suggest that climate warming might have a profound effect on fitness-relevant traits both at embryonic and post-embryonic stages in oviparous lizards. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Lung Irradiation Increases Mortality After Influenza A Virus Challenge Occurring Late After Exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Casey M.; Johnston, Carl J.; Department of Pediatrics, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, New York

2013-05-01

Purpose: To address whether irradiation-induced changes in the lung environment alter responses to a viral challenge delivered late after exposure but before the appearance of late lung radiation injury. Methods and Materials: C57BL/6J mice received either lung alone or combined lung and whole-body irradiation (0-15 Gy). At 10 weeks after irradiation, animals were infected with 120 HAU influenza virus strain A/HKx31. Innate and adaptive immune cell recruitment was determined using flow cytometry. Cytokine and chemokine production and protein leakage into the lung after infection were assessed. Results: Prior irradiation led to a dose-dependent failure to regain body weight after infectionmore » and exacerbated mortality, but it did not affect virus-specific immune responses or virus clearance. Surviving irradiated animals displayed a persistent increase in total protein in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and edema. Conclusions: Lung irradiation increased susceptibility to death after infection with influenza virus and impaired the ability to complete recovery. This altered response does not seem to be due to a radiation effect on the immune response, but it may possibly be an effect on epithelial repair.« less

How sex and age affect immune responses, susceptibility to infections, and response to vaccination

PubMed Central

Giefing-Kröll, Carmen; Berger, Peter; Lepperdinger, Günter; Grubeck-Loebenstein, Beatrix

2015-01-01

Do men die young and sick, or do women live long and healthy? By trying to explain the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy, both biological and environmental aspects are presently being addressed. Besides age-related changes, both the immune and the endocrine system exhibit significant sex-specific differences. This review deals with the aging immune system and its interplay with sex steroid hormones. Together, they impact on the etiopathology of many infectious diseases, which are still the major causes of morbidity and mortality in people at old age. Among men, susceptibilities toward many infectious diseases and the corresponding mortality rates are higher. Responses to various types of vaccination are often higher among women thereby also mounting stronger humoral responses. Women appear immune-privileged. The major sex steroid hormones exhibit opposing effects on cells of both the adaptive and the innate immune system: estradiol being mainly enhancing, testosterone by and large suppressive. However, levels of sex hormones change with age. At menopause transition, dropping estradiol potentially enhances immunosenescence effects posing postmenopausal women at additional, yet specific risks. Conclusively during aging, interventions, which distinctively consider the changing level of individual hormones, shall provide potent options in maintaining optimal immune functions. PMID:25720438

[Estimation of infant and child mortality in the eastern provinces of Cuba].

PubMed

Gonzalez, G; Herrera, L

1986-01-01

An estimate of infant and child mortality in the eastern provinces of Cuba is presented using the Brass method as adapted by Trussell. "Estimations by urban and rural zones are also performed within the provinces studied, and results are compared with those possible to obtain by continuous statistics. Results obtained show that in the eastern [part] of the country Holguin and Guantanamo are the provinces with highest infantile mortality rates, and the lowest rates correspond to Granma, followed by Santiago de Cuba." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

Are Scots pine forest edges particularly prone to drought-induced mortality?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buras, Allan; Schunk, Christian; Zeiträg, Claudia; Herrmann, Corinna; Kaiser, Laura; Lemme, Hannes; Straub, Christoph; Taeger, Steffen; Gößwein, Sebastian; Klemmt, Hans-Joachim; Menzel, Annette

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency of drought-induced tree mortality world-wide. To better predict the associated change of species composition and forest dynamics on various scales and develop adequate adaptation strategies, more information on the mechanisms driving the often observed patchiness of tree die-back is needed. Although forest-edge effects may play an important role within the given context, only few corresponding studies exist. Here, we investigate the regional die-back of Scots pine in Franconia, Germany, after a hot and dry summer in 2015, thereby emphasizing possible differences in mortality between forest edge and interior. By means of dendroecological investigations and close-range remote sensing, we assess long-term growth performance and current tree vitality along five different forest-edge distance gradients. Our results clearly indicate a differing growth performance between edge and interior trees, associated with a higher vulnerability to drought, increased mortality rates, and lower tree vitality at the forest edge. Prior long-lasting growth decline of dead trees compared to live trees suggests depletion of carbon reserves in course of a long-term drought persisting since the 1990s to be the cause of regional Scots pine die-back. These findings highlight the forest edge as a potential focal point of forest management adaptation strategies in the context of drought-induced mortality.

Wildlife health and disease investigations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roffe, T.J.; Work, Thierry M.; Braun, C.E.

2005-01-01

Wildlife population management requires knowledge of factors that affect population sustainability. Mortality is one of the most important of those factors. Without a clear understanding of the causes of mortality, decisions by managers of whether or how to intercede may be inappropriate. Wildlife biologists are usually the first to discover, assess, and respond to wildlife mortality. Biologists who make accurate, complete and timely field investigations, and proper collection and shipment of samples to a diagnostic facility are essential for an accurate diagnosis. In combination with wildlife disease specialists, biologists can identify causes of wildlife mortality, detect long-term patterns in factors that affect the survival of populations, and take appropriate corrective action to minimize the impact of some mortality factors on wildlife populations.

Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption

PubMed Central

Kim, Yoonhee; Gasparrini, Antonio; Honda, Yasushi; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Armstrong, Ben

2017-01-01

Background: In March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake devastated several power stations and caused severe electricity shortages. This accident was followed by the implementation of policies to reduce summer electricity consumption in the affected areas, for example, by limiting air-conditioning (AC) use. This provided a natural experimental scenario to investigate if these policies were associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. Objectives: We examined whether the reduced electricity consumption in warm season modified heat-related mortality from 2008 to 2012. Methods: We conducted prefecture-specific interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses to compare temperature–mortality associations before and after the earthquake, and used meta-analysis to generate combined effect estimates for the most affected and less affected areas (prefectures with >10% or ≤10% reductions in electricity consumption, respectively). We then examined whether the temperature–mortality association in Tokyo, one of the most affected areas, was modified by the percent reduction in electricity consumption relative to expected consumption for comparable days before the earthquake. Results: Contrary to expectations, we estimated a 5–9% reduction in all-cause heat-related mortality after the earthquake in the 15 prefectures with the greatest reduction in electricity consumption, and little change in the other prefectures. However, the percent reduction in observed vs. expected daily electricity consumption after the earthquake did not significantly modify daily heat-related mortality in Tokyo. Conclusions: In the prefectures with the greatest reductions in electricity consumption, heat-related mortality decreased rather than increased following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Additional research is needed to determine whether this finding holds for other populations and regions, and to clarify its implications for policies to reduce the consequences of climate change on health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP493 PMID:28686555

Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption.

PubMed

Kim, Yoonhee; Gasparrini, Antonio; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Armstrong, Ben

2017-07-06

In March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake devastated several power stations and caused severe electricity shortages. This accident was followed by the implementation of policies to reduce summer electricity consumption in the affected areas, for example, by limiting air-conditioning (AC) use. This provided a natural experimental scenario to investigate if these policies were associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. We examined whether the reduced electricity consumption in warm season modified heat-related mortality from 2008 to 2012. We conducted prefecture-specific interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses to compare temperature-mortality associations before and after the earthquake, and used meta-analysis to generate combined effect estimates for the most affected and less affected areas (prefectures with >10% or ≤10% reductions in electricity consumption, respectively). We then examined whether the temperature-mortality association in Tokyo, one of the most affected areas, was modified by the percent reduction in electricity consumption relative to expected consumption for comparable days before the earthquake. Contrary to expectations, we estimated a 5-9% reduction in all-cause heat-related mortality after the earthquake in the 15 prefectures with the greatest reduction in electricity consumption, and little change in the other prefectures. However, the percent reduction in observed vs. expected daily electricity consumption after the earthquake did not significantly modify daily heat-related mortality in Tokyo. In the prefectures with the greatest reductions in electricity consumption, heat-related mortality decreased rather than increased following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Additional research is needed to determine whether this finding holds for other populations and regions, and to clarify its implications for policies to reduce the consequences of climate change on health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP493.

Trends in mortality from septicaemia and pneumonia with economic development: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Wong, Irene O L; Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M; Schooling, C Mary

2012-01-01

Hong Kong population has experienced drastic changes in its economic development in the 1940s. Taking advantage of Hong Kong's unique demographic and socioeconomic history, characterized by massive, punctuated migration waves from Southern China, and recent, rapid transition from a pre-industrialized society to the first ethnic Chinese community reaching "first world" status over the last 60 years (i.e., in two or three generations), we examined the longitudinal trends in infection related mortality including septicemia compared to trends in non-bacterial pneumonia to generate hypotheses for further testing in other recently transitioned economies and to provide generalized aetiological insights on how economic transition affects infection-related mortality. We used deaths from septicemia and pneumonia not specified as bacterial, and population figures in Hong Kong from 1976-2005. We fitted age-period-cohort models to decompose septicemia and non-bacterial pneumonia mortality rates into age, period and cohort effects. Septicaemia-related deaths increased exponentially with age, with a downturn by period. The birth cohort curves had downward inflections in both sexes in the 1940s, with a steeper deceleration for women. Non-bacterial pneumonia-related deaths also increased exponentially with age, but the birth cohort patterns showed no downturns for those born in the 1940s. The observed changes appeared to suggest that better early life conditions may enable better development of adaptive immunity, thus enhancing immunity against bacterial infections, with greater benefits for women than men. Given the interaction between the immune system and the gonadotropic axis, these observations are compatible with the hypothesis that upregulation of the gonadotropic axis underlies some of the changes in disease patterns with economic development.

76 FR 39112 - Advisory Committee on Infant Mortality; Notice of Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-05

... mortality and improving the health status of infants and pregnant women; and factors affecting the continuum... Medical Home; Centering Pregnancy, and Fetal Infant Mortality Review. Proposed agenda items are subject to...

Mathematical modelling of vector-borne diseases and insecticide resistance evolution.

PubMed

Gabriel Kuniyoshi, Maria Laura; Pio Dos Santos, Fernando Luiz

2017-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are important public health issues and, consequently, in silico models that simulate them can be useful. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model simulates the population dynamics of an epidemic and can be easily adapted to vector-borne diseases, whereas the Hardy-Weinberg model simulates allele frequencies and can be used to study insecticide resistance evolution. The aim of the present study is to develop a coupled system that unifies both models, therefore enabling the analysis of the effects of vector population genetics on the population dynamics of an epidemic. Our model consists of an ordinary differential equation system. We considered the populations of susceptible, infected and recovered humans, as well as susceptible and infected vectors. Concerning these vectors, we considered a pair of alleles, with complete dominance interaction that determined the rate of mortality induced by insecticides. Thus, we were able to separate the vectors according to the genotype. We performed three numerical simulations of the model. In simulation one, both alleles conferred the same mortality rate values, therefore there was no resistant strain. In simulations two and three, the recessive and dominant alleles, respectively, conferred a lower mortality. Our numerical results show that the genetic composition of the vector population affects the dynamics of human diseases. We found that the absolute number of vectors and the proportion of infected vectors are smaller when there is no resistant strain, whilst the ratio of infected people is larger in the presence of insecticide-resistant vectors. The dynamics observed for infected humans in all simulations has a very similar shape to real epidemiological data. The population genetics of vectors can affect epidemiological dynamics, and the presence of insecticide-resistant strains can increase the number of infected people. Based on the present results, the model is a basis for development of other models and for investigating population dynamics.

Factors affecting mortality in older trauma patients-A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sammy, Ian; Lecky, Fiona; Sutton, Anthea; Leaviss, Joanna; O'Cathain, Alicia

2016-06-01

Major trauma in older people is a significant health burden in the developed world. The aging of the population has resulted in larger numbers of older patients suffering serious injury. Older trauma patients are at greater risk of death from major trauma, but the reasons for this are less well understood. The aim of this review was to identify the factors affecting mortality in older patients suffering major injury. A systematic review of Medline, Cinhal and the Cochrane database, supplemented by a manual search of relevant papers was undertaken, with meta-analysis. Multi-centre cohort studies of existing trauma registries that reported risk-adjusted mortality (adjusted odds ratios, AOR) in their outcomes and which analysed patients aged 65 and older as a separate cohort were included in the review. 3609 papers were identified from the electronic databases, and 28 from manual searches. Of these, 15 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Demographic variables (age and gender), pre-existing conditions (comorbidities and medication), and injury-related factors (injury severity, pattern and mechanism) were found to affect mortality. The 'oldest old', aged 75 and older, had higher mortality rates than younger patients, aged 65-74 years. Older men had a significantly higher mortality rate than women (cumulative odds ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.37-1.66). Three papers reported a higher risk of death in patients with pre-existing conditions. Two studies reported increased mortality in patients on warfarin (cumulative odds ratio 1.32, 95% CI 1.05-1.66). Higher mortality was seen in patients with lower Glasgow coma scores and systolic blood pressures. Mortality increased with increased injury severity and number of injuries sustained. Low level falls were associated with higher mortality than motor vehicle collisions (cumulative odds ratio 2.88, 95% CI 1.26-6.60). Multiple factors contribute to mortality risk in older trauma patients. The relation between these factors and mortality is complex, and a fuller understanding of the contribution of each factor is needed to develop a better predictive model for trauma outcomes in older people. More research is required to identify patient and process factors affecting mortality in older patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires

PubMed Central

Henderson, Sarah B.; Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Marlier, Miriam; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kinney, Patrick; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Brauer, Michael

2012-01-01

Background: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration–response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration–response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000–600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Niño suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS. PMID:22456494

Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability to the heat across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Dixon, P. G.

2016-12-01

While human vulnerability to excessive heat has been well documented, relatively few studies have examined long-term trends in vulnerability to heat events. In this research, we examine temporal trends in mortality associated with heat waves, defined using three different definitions of heat wave, for the largest 51 metropolitan areas of the US, over a 36-year period (1975-2010). Regardless of the definition of heat wave, an overall decline in heat vulnerability is seen over the period. While in the first years of the study, 18 to 26 metropolitan areas showed statistically significant increases in mortality on heat wave days, by the final decade of the study period, this had decreased to 6 to 7. Within this narrative, however, examining individual metropolitan areas shows greater variability within the downward trend. Several contributing factors to the variability were observed, including the occurrence of an extreme heat wave affecting the overall heat wave-mortality relationship, and the frequency of heat events over a given period. These broad decreases in heat vulnerability, while encouraging, should be viewed in a cautionary sense. With society aging, there will be a greater number of highly susceptible individuals in the future; further adaptation gains are difficult in many places as air conditioning is now available in most homes in the US. Further, increased use of air conditioning has been associated with a stronger heat island; which, moving forward, is likely to occur alongside a greater number of heat events.

Outcome, comorbidity and prognosis in anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Jagielska, Gabriela; Kacperska, Iwona

2017-04-30

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a relatively common disorder, especially in adolescent and young adult women. The lifetime prevalence of AN in females ranges from 1.2 to 2.2%. The prevalence in males is 10-times lower. The condition is associated with a high risk of chronic course and poor prognosis in terms of treatment and the risk of death. Longer follow-up periods seemed to correspond with increased improvement rates and increased mortality. Onset of the disorder during adolescence is associated with better prognosis. It is reported that as much as 70% to over 80% of patients in this age group achieve remission. Worse outcomes are observed in patients who required hospitalization and in adults. Recent studies indicate improved prognosis for cure and lower mortality rates than previously reported. However, the recovery can take several years and AN is associated with high risk of developing other psychiatric disorders during the patients' lifetime, even after recovery from AN (mainly: affective disorders, anxiety disorders, obsessive-compulsive disorders, substance abuse disorders). Studies indicate that bulimic symptoms often occur in the course of anorexia nervosa (especially within 2-3 years from the onset of AN). The authors present a review of literature on the course, comorbidity, mortality, and prognostic factors in AN. Better knowledge of the course of anorexia can contribute to more realistic expectations of the pace of symptomatic improvement, as well as to a creation of therapeutic programs which are better adapted to the needs of the patients.

Hypoxaemia as a Mortality Risk Factor in Acute Lower Respiratory Infections in Children in Low and Middle-Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Lazzerini, Marzia; Sonego, Michela; Pellegrin, Maria Chiara

2015-01-01

Objective To evaluate the association between hypoxaemia and mortality from acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Study Selection Observational studies reporting on the association between hypoxaemia and death from ALRI in children below five years in LMIC. Data Sources Medline, Embase, Global Health Library, Lilacs, and Web of Science to February 2015. Risk of Bias Assessment Quality In Prognosis Studies tool with minor adaptations to assess the risk of bias; funnel plots and Egger’s test to evaluate publication bias. Results Out of 11,627 papers retrieved, 18 studies from 13 countries on 20,224 children met the inclusion criteria. Twelve (66.6%) studies had either low or moderate risk of bias. Hypoxaemia defined as oxygen saturation rate (SpO2) <90% associated with significantly increased odds of death from ALRI (OR 5.47, 95% CI 3.93 to 7.63) in 12 studies on 13,936 children. An Sp02 <92% associated with a similar increased risk of mortality (OR 3.66, 95% CI 1.42 to 9.47) in 3 studies on 673 children. Sensitivity analyses (excluding studies with high risk of bias and using adjusted OR) and subgroup analyses (by: altitude, definition of ALRI, country income, HIV prevalence) did not affect results. Only one study was performed on children living at high altitude. Conclusions The results of this review support the routine evaluation of SpO2 for identifying children with ALRI at increased risk of death. Both a Sp02 value of 92% and 90% equally identify children at increased risk of mortality. More research is needed on children living at high altitude. Policy makers in LMIC should aim at improving the regular use of pulse oximetry and the availability of oxygen in order to decrease mortality from ALRI. PMID:26372640

Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

PubMed

Hajat, Shakoor; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd

2014-07-01

The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Effect of dietary protein source and cereal type on the incidence of sudden death syndrome in broiler chickens.

PubMed

Blair, R; Jacob, J P; Gardiner, E E

1990-08-01

Three experiments were conducted to compare the incidence of Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) in male Peterson by Arbor Acre broiler chickens fed diets with either corn or wheat as the grain type and meat meal or soybean meal as the main protein source. In the first two experiments, the broilers were raised in floor pens to 6 wk of age, and in the third experiment they were raised in battery-brooder cages to 4 wk of age. In both floor pen studies, total mortality and the incidence of SDS were significantly higher for wheat-fed birds, while SDS as a percentage of total mortality was not affected by cereal type. In the brooder study, neither total mortality nor mortality from SDS was significantly affected by cereal type. In the floor pen studies, the incidence of SDS as a percentage of the birds housed, was reduced by the inclusion of meat meal in the diet. In the brooder study, total mortality and the incidence of SDS were not affected by protein source, but SDS as a percentage of total mortality was reduced with the inclusion of meat meal in the diet.

Armillaria mellea and mortality of beech affected by beech bark disease

Treesearch

Philip M. Wargo

1983-01-01

The role of Armillaria mellea in the mortality of beech trees affected by beech bark disease was determined by excavating root systems of beech trees infested by beech scale, Cryptococcus fagisuga, or also infected by the bark fungus, Nectria coccinea var. faginata. Only trees infected by

"Bread and a pennyworth of treacle": excess female mortality in England in the 1840s.

PubMed

Humphries, J

1991-12-01

The author analyzes excess female mortality in nineteenth-century England. She concludes that such mortality was affected by the economic environment and that "much literary evidence points to unequal access to food and a resulting susceptibility to epidemic and respiratory diseases as the transmission mechanism converting dependence and discrimination into relatively high death rates." Women were also adversely affected by harsh labor conditions, in addition to the heavy duties involved in motherhood and housework. excerpt

Duration of residence was not consistently related to immigrant mortality.

PubMed

Bos, Vivian; Kunst, Anton E; Garssen, Joop; Mackenbach, Johan P

2007-06-01

This paper aimed to examine immigrant mortality according to duration of residence in the Netherlands and to compare duration-specific mortality levels to levels of mortality in the native Dutch population. For the years 1995-2000, we linked the national cause of death register, that contains information on deaths of legal residents, to the municipal population register, that contains information on all legal residents. We studied mortality in relation to period of immigration by means of directly standardized mortality rates and Poisson regression. All cause mortality was not related to year of immigration among Turkish and Moroccan men and women, and among Surinamese women. Among Surinamese men and among Antilleans/Aruban men and women, mortality was higher in more recent immigrants. Part of their excess mortality was due to their relatively low socioeconomic status. For most specific causes of death, no consistent relation with duration of residence was observed. A consistent relation between duration of residence and immigrant mortality was only observed in some immigrant groups. The results suggest that the healthy migrant effect or adaptation of health-related behaviors were no predominant determinants of immigrant mortality in the Netherlands.

Adaptive strategies of overwintering adults: reproductive diapause and mating behavior in a grasshopper, Stenocatantops splendens (Orthoptera: Catantopidae).

PubMed

Zhu, Dao-Hong; Cui, Shuang-Shuang; Fan, Yong-Sheng; Liu, Zhiwei

2013-04-01

To understand the adaptive strategies of the overwintering adults of Stenocatantops splendens, the mechanism of maintenance and termination of the reproductive diapause, the variation in mortality between overwintering females and males, and the mating strategy of the males were investigated. The results indicated that the adult reproductive diapause in natural conditions was mainly regulated by photoperiod in the fall - long photoperiods promoted reproductive development and short photoperiods maintained reproductive diapause, and the sensitivity of the overwintering adults to photoperiod was over before the end of the winter. When transferred from natural conditions to controlled laboratory conditions on dates from September through February, pre-oviposition became increasingly shorter with increasingly deferred transfer dates regardless of photoperiod conditions. The adults treated with low temperature for 30 days in September through November had significantly shorter pre-oviposition, suggesting that low temperatures in winter had an important role in the termination of reproductive diapause. The female had a significantly lower supercooling point than the male, which was related to their lower mortality after winter. In addition, observations of wild populations of the species indicated that mating behavior prior to winter and the duration of pre-mating period were not affected by photoperiod; mating and sperm transfer were mostly completed by November. Compared with females only mating before winter, females mating in the spring had shorter life span, longer pre-oviposition, lower hatching rate and laid fewer egg pods while showing no significant difference with regard to ovipositional interval, per pod number of eggs and nymph dry weight. © 2012 The Authors Insect Science © 2012 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Relative size and stand age determine Pinus banksiana mortality

Treesearch

Han Y. H. Chen; Songling Fu; Robert A. Monserud; Ian C. Gillies

2008-01-01

Tree mortality is a poorly understood process in the boreal forest. Whereas large disturbances reset succession by killing all or most trees, background tree mortality was hypothesized to be affected by competition, ageing, and stand composition. We tested these hypotheses on jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) mortality using data from long-term...

Effectiveness of adaptive pretend play on affective expression and imagination of children with cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Hsieh, Hsieh-Chun

2012-01-01

Children with cerebral palsy (CP) have difficulty participating in role-pretending activities. The concept of adaptive play makes play accessible by modifying play materials for different needs or treatment goals for children with CP. This study examines the affective expressions and imagination in children with CP as a function of ordinary versus adaptive pretend play. The Affect in Play Scale-Brief Rating measured the affective expression and imagination for 29 children with CP and 29 typically developing children (mean age=7.34 years). Two groups of children were observed while playing with a standard set of ordinary toys for ten times and with a standard procedure of adaptive pretend play for ten times. The results show significantly different affective expressions and imagination between the two groups. Typically developing children displayed much more affective expression and imagination. However, a more positive influence of affective expression and imagination occurred in children with CP than in typically developing children. In repeated measures analysis, the frequency of positive affective expression and imagination of children with CP was higher when pretending with adaptive toys. Adaptive pretend play can promote more role-pretending behaviors and a sense of environmental control during the manipulating process for children with CP. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Affective Interface Adaptations in the Musickiosk Interactive Entertainment Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malatesta, L.; Raouzaiou, A.; Pearce, L.; Karpouzis, K.

The current work presents the affective interface adaptations in the Musickiosk application. Adaptive interaction poses several open questions since there is no unique way of mapping affective factors of user behaviour to the output of the system. Musickiosk uses a non-contact interface and implicit interaction through emotional affect rather than explicit interaction where a gesture, sound or other input directly maps to an output behaviour - as in traditional entertainment applications. PAD model is used for characterizing the different affective states and emotions.

Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants.

PubMed

Åström, Christofer; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Andersson, Camilla; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

2017-07-07

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.

Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants

PubMed Central

Åström, Christofer; Oudin Åström, Daniel; Andersson, Camilla; L. Ebi, Kristie; Forsberg, Bertil

2017-01-01

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge. PMID:28686197

Effects of prescribed fire and season of burn on direct and indirect levels of tree mortality in Ponderosa and Jeffrey Pine Forests in California, USA.

Treesearch

Christopher Fettig; Stephen McKelvey; Daniel Cluck; Smith Sheri; William Otrosina

2010-01-01

Many forests that historically experienced frequent low-intensity wildfires have undergone extensive alterations during the past century. Prescribed fire is now commonly used to restore these fire-adapted forest ecosystems. In this study, we examined the influence of prescribed burn season on levels of tree mortality attributed to prescribed fire effects (direct...

Mountain pine beetle-caused mortality over eight years in two pine hosts in mixed-conifer stands of the southern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Daniel R. West; Jennifer S. Briggs; William R. Jacobi; Jose F. Negron

2014-01-01

Eruptive mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, MPB) populations have caused widespread mortality of pines throughout western North America since the late 1990s. Early work by A.D. Hopkins suggested that when alternate host species are available, MPB will prefer to breed in the host to which it has become adapted. In Colorado, epidemic MPB populations that...

Evaluation of a methodology to validate National Death Index retrieval results among a cohort of U.S. service members.

PubMed

Skopp, Nancy A; Smolenski, Derek J; Schwesinger, Daniel A; Johnson, Christopher J; Metzger-Abamukong, Melinda J; Reger, Mark A

2017-06-01

Accurate knowledge of the vital status of individuals is critical to the validity of mortality research. National Death Index (NDI) and NDI-Plus are comprehensive epidemiological resources for mortality ascertainment and cause of death data that require additional user validation. Currently, there is a gap in methods to guide validation of NDI search results rendered for active duty service members. The purpose of this research was to adapt and evaluate the CDC National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) algorithm for mortality ascertainment in a large military cohort. We adapted and applied the NPCR algorithm to a cohort of 7088 service members on active duty at the time of death at some point between 2001 and 2009. We evaluated NDI validity and NDI-Plus diagnostic agreement against the Department of Defense's Armed Forces Medical Examiner System (AFMES). The overall sensitivity of the NDI to AFMES records after the application of the NPCR algorithm was 97.1%. Diagnostic estimates of measurement agreement between the NDI-Plus and the AFMES cause of death groups were high. The NDI and NDI-Plus can be successfully used with the NPCR algorithm to identify mortality and cause of death among active duty military cohort members who die in the United States. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evolutionary ecology of human birth sex ratio under the compound influence of climate change, famine, economic crises and wars.

PubMed

Helle, Samuli; Helama, Samuli; Lertola, Kalle

2009-11-01

1. Human sex ratio at birth at the population level has been suggested to vary according to exogenous stressors such as wars, ambient temperature, ecological disasters and economic crises, but their relative effects on birth sex ratio have not been investigated. It also remains unclear whether such associations represent environmental forcing or adaptive parental response, as parents may produce the sex that has better survival prospects and fitness in a given environmental challenge. 2. We examined the simultaneous role of wars, famine, ambient temperature, economic development and total mortality rate on the annual variation of offspring birth sex ratio and whether this variation, in turn, was related to sex-specific infant mortality rate in Finland during 1865-2003. 3. Our findings show an increased excess of male births during the World War II and during warm years. Instead, economic development, famine, short-lasting Finnish civil war and total mortality rate were not related to birth sex ratio. Moreover, we found no association between annual birth sex ratio and sex-biased infant mortality rate among the concurrent cohort. 4. Our results propose that some exogenous challenges like ambient temperature and war can skew human birth sex ratio and that these deviations likely represent environmental forcing rather than adaptive parental response to such challenges.

"Vulnerability, Resiliency, and Adaptation: The Health of Latin Americans during the Migration Process to the United States"

PubMed

Riosmena, Fernando; Jochem, Warren C

2012-01-01

In this paper, we offer a general outlook of the health of Latin Americans (with a special emphasis on Mexicans) during the different stages of the migration process to the U.S. given the usefulness of the social vulnerability concept and given that said vulnerability varies conspicuously across the different stages of the migration process. Severe migrant vulnerability during the transit and crossing has serious negative health consequences. Yet, upon their arrival to the U.S., migrant health is favorable in outcomes such as mortality by many causes of death and in several chronic conditions and risk factors, though these apparent advantages seem to disappear during the process of adaptation to the host society. We discuss potential explanations for the initial health advantage and the sources of vulnerability that explain its erosion, with special emphasis in systematic timely access to health care. Given that migration can affect social vulnerability processes in sending areas, we discuss the potential health consequences for these places and conclude by considering the immigration and health policy implications of these issues for the United States and sending countries, with emphasis on Mexico.

“Vulnerability, Resiliency, and Adaptation: The Health of Latin Americans during the Migration Process to the United States”*

PubMed Central

Riosmena, Fernando; Jochem, Warren C.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we offer a general outlook of the health of Latin Americans (with a special emphasis on Mexicans) during the different stages of the migration process to the U.S. given the usefulness of the social vulnerability concept and given that said vulnerability varies conspicuously across the different stages of the migration process. Severe migrant vulnerability during the transit and crossing has serious negative health consequences. Yet, upon their arrival to the U.S., migrant health is favorable in outcomes such as mortality by many causes of death and in several chronic conditions and risk factors, though these apparent advantages seem to disappear during the process of adaptation to the host society. We discuss potential explanations for the initial health advantage and the sources of vulnerability that explain its erosion, with special emphasis in systematic timely access to health care. Given that migration can affect social vulnerability processes in sending areas, we discuss the potential health consequences for these places and conclude by considering the immigration and health policy implications of these issues for the United States and sending countries, with emphasis on Mexico. PMID:24660053

Behavioral and physiological responses to male handicap in chick-rearing black-legged kittiwakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leclaire, S.; Bourret, V.; Wagner, R.H.; Hatch, Shyla A.; Helfenstein, F.; Chastel, O.; Danchin, E.

2011-01-01

Parental investment entails a trade-off between the benefits of effort in current offspring and the costs to future reproduction. Long-lived species are predicted to be reluctant to increase parental effort to avoid affecting their survival. We tested this hypothesis in black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla by clipping flight feathers of experimental males at the beginning of the chick-rearing period. We analyzed the consequences of this handicap on feeding and attendance behavior, body condition, integument coloration, and circulating levels of corticosterone and prolactin in handicapped males and their mates in comparison to unmanipulated controls. Chicks in both groups were compared in terms of aggressive behavior, growth, and mortality. Handicapped males lost more mass, had less bright integuments, and attended the nest less often than controls. Nevertheless, they fed their chicks at the same rate and had similar corticosterone and prolactin levels. Compared with control females, females mated with handicapped males showed a lower provisioning rate and higher nest attendance in the first days after manipulation. Their lower feeding rate probably triggered the increased sibling aggression and mortality observed in experimental broods. Our findings suggest that experimental females adaptively adjusted their effort to their mate's perceived quality or that their provisioning was constrained by their higher nest attendance. Overall, our results suggest that kittiwake males can decrease their condition for the sake of their chicks, which seems to contradict the hypothesis that kittiwakes should be reluctant to increase parental effort to avoid affecting their survival. ?? 2011 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Society for Behavioral Ecology. All rights reserved.

Impact of the HIV epidemic on population and household structure: the dynamics and evidence to date.

PubMed

Heuveline, Patrick

2004-06-01

HIV is contracted most frequently at birth and during early adulthood. The epidemic may thus impact the demographic structure and the household structure of affected populations. This paper reviews earlier evidence of such an impact, uses demographic theory to anticipate its changes over time, and reviews the most recent evidence for indications of these changes. Modest increases in the male : female ratio are beginning to show within certain age groups only (approximately 15% among 25-34 year olds). Similarly sized increases in the proportion of 15-29 year olds relative to 30-54 year olds are observed in some age pyramids. These 'youth bulges' are expected to fade out, whereas an aging effect phases in with the fertility impact of the epidemic. In the longer run, the size of all age groups will be reduced, but relatively less so for middle-aged adults. Proportions of orphans and widows have increased in the most affected countries. Fewer remarriage probabilities for widows were observed. Resulting increases in the proportion of female-headed households should only be temporary, as female mortality is catching up with male mortality. The number of double orphans is beginning to increase, but overall, orphans continue to live predominantly with a family member, most often the grandparents if not with the surviving parent. To date, the epidemic's impact on the population and household structure has been limited by demographic (aging) and social (adaptive movements of kin across households) processes that contribute to diffuse the epidemic throughout the entire population and all households.

Dietary restriction of rodents decreases aging rate without affecting initial mortality rate -- a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simons, Mirre J P; Koch, Wouter; Verhulst, Simon

2013-06-01

Dietary restriction (DR) extends lifespan in multiple species from various taxa. This effect can arise via two distinct but not mutually exclusive ways: a change in aging rate and/or vulnerability to the aging process (i.e. initial mortality rate). When DR affects vulnerability, this lowers mortality instantly, whereas a change in aging rate will gradually lower mortality risk over time. Unraveling how DR extends lifespan is of interest because it may guide toward understanding the mechanism(s) mediating lifespan extension and also has practical implications for the application of DR. We reanalyzed published survival data from 82 pairs of survival curves from DR experiments in rats and mice by fitting Gompertz and also Gompertz-Makeham models. The addition of the Makeham parameter has been reported to improve the estimation of Gompertz parameters. Both models separate initial mortality rate (vulnerability) from an age-dependent increase in mortality (aging rate). We subjected the obtained Gompertz parameters to a meta-analysis. We find that DR reduced aging rate without affecting vulnerability. The latter contrasts with the conclusion of a recent analysis of a largely overlapping data set, and we show how the earlier finding is due to a statistical artifact. Our analysis indicates that the biology underlying the life-extending effect of DR in rodents likely involves attenuated accumulation of damage, which contrasts with the acute effect of DR on mortality reported for Drosophila. Moreover, our findings show that the often-reported correlation between aging rate and vulnerability does not constrain changing aging rate without affecting vulnerability simultaneously. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and the Anatomical Society.

Sex-biased hatching order and adaptive population divergence in a passerine bird.

PubMed

Badyaev, Alexander V; Hill, Geoffrey E; Beck, Michelle L; Dervan, Anne A; Duckworth, Renee A; McGraw, Kevin J; Nolan, Paul M; Whittingham, Linda A

2002-01-11

Most species of birds can lay only one egg per day until a clutch is complete, and the order in which eggs are laid often has strong and sex-specific effects on offspring growth and survival. In two recently established populations of the house finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) in Montana and Alabama, breeding females simultaneously adjusted the sex and growth of offspring in relation to their position in the laying order, thereby reducing the mortality of sons and daughters by 10 to 20% in both environments. We show experimentally that the reduction in mortality is produced by persistent and sex-specific maternal effects on the growth and morphology of offspring. These strong parental effects may have facilitated the rapid adaptive divergence among populations of house finches.

Some socio-economic factors affecting infant and child mortality with special reference to Indonesia.

PubMed

Kristanto, B

1983-06-01

A review of the literature on the socioeconomic factors affecting infant and child mortality is presented, with special reference to Indonesia. Four main factors are identified: parents' education, parents' occupation, urban-rural residence, and housing conditions. The author suggests that, in fact, problems related to health and sanitation are the main causes of infant and child mortality. Also important are problems related to poverty, income, and income distribution. It is suggested that the solution is to be found in general socioeconomic development.

Population demography of alpine butterflies: Boloria pales and Boloria napaea (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and their specific adaptations to high mountain environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehl, Stefan; Ebertshäuser, Marlene; Gros, Patrick; Schmitt, Thomas

2017-11-01

High mountain ecosystems are extreme habitats, and adaptation strategies to this ecosystem are still poorly understood in most groups. To unravel such strategies, we performed a MRR study in the Hohe Tauern National Park (Salzburg, Austria) with two nymphalid butterfly species, Boloria pales and B. napaea. We analysed their population structure over one flight period by studying the development of population size and wing wear. B. pales had more individuals and a higher survival probability than B. napaea; the sensitivity to extreme weather conditions or other external influences was higher in B. napaea. We only observed proterandry in B. pales. Imagines of both species survived under snow for at least some days. Additionally, we observed a kind of risk-spreading, in that individuals of both species, and especially B. pales, have regularly emerged throughout the flight period. This emergence pattern divided the population's age structure into three phases: an initial phase with decreasing wing quality (emergence > mortality), followed by an equilibrium phase with mostly constant average wing condition (emergence = mortality) and a final ageing phase with strongly deteriorating wing condition (mortality » emergence). Consequently, neither species would likely become extinct because of particularly unsuitable weather conditions during a single flight period. The observed differences between the two species suggest a better regional adaptation of B. pales, which is restricted to high mountain systems of Europe. In contrast, the arctic-alpine B. napaea might be best adapted to conditions in the Arctic and not the more southern high mountain systems. However, this needs to be examined during future research in the Arctic.

Influence of repeated prescribed fire on tree growth and mortality in Pinus resinosa forests, northern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Palik, Brian J.; Kern, Christel C.; Bradford, John B.; Scherer, Sawyer S.

2017-01-01

Prescribed fire is widely used for ecological restoration and fuel reduction in fire-dependent ecosystems, most of which are also prone to drought. Despite the importance of drought in fire-adapted forests, little is known about cumulative effects of repeated prescribed burning on tree growth and related response to drought. Using dendrochronological data in red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.)-dominated forests in northern Minnesota, USA, we examined growth responses before and after understory prescribed fires between 1960 and 1970, to assess whether repeated burning influences growth responses of overstory trees and vulnerability of overstory tree growth to drought. We found no difference in tree-level growth vulnerability to drought, expressed as growth resistance, resilience, and recovery, between areas receiving prescribed fire treatments and untreated forests. Annual mortality rates during the period of active burning were also low (less than 2%) in all treatments. These findings indicate that prescribed fire can be effectively integrated into management plans and climate change adaptation strategies for red pine forest ecosystems without significant short- or long-term negative consequences for growth or mortality rates of overstory trees.

Spatiotemporal patterns of fire-induced forest mortality in boreal regions and its potential drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Tian, H.; Pan, S.; Hansen, M.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is the major natural disturbance in boreal forests, which have substantially affected various biological and biophysical processes. Although a few previous studies examined fire severity in boreal regions and reported a higher fire-induced forest mortality in boreal North America than in boreal Eurasia, it remains unclear how this mortality changes over time and how environmental factors affect the temporal dynamics of mortality at a large scale. By using a combination of multiple sources of satellite observations, we investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of fire-induced forest mortality in boreal regions, and examine the contributions of potential drivers. Our results show that forest composition is the key factor influencing the spatial variations of fire mortality across ecoregions. For the temporal variations, we find that the late-season burning was associated with higher fire intensity, which lead to greater forest mortality than the early-season burning. Forests burned in the warm and dry years had greater mortality than those burned in the cool and wet years. Our findings suggest that climate warming and drying not only stimulated boreal fire frequency, but also enhanced fire severity and forest mortality. Due to the significant effects of forest mortality on vegetation structure and ecosystem carbon dynamics, the spatiotemporal changes of fire-induced forest mortality should be explicitly considered to better understand fire impacts on regional and global climate change.

[Early management of cerebrovascular accidents].

PubMed

Libot, Jérômie; Guillon, Benoit

2013-01-01

A cerebrovascular accident requires urgent diagnosis and treatment.The management of a stroke must be early and adapted in order to improve the overall clinical outcome and lower the risk of mortality.

Does the Perception that Stress Affects Health Matter? The Association with Health and Mortality

PubMed Central

Keller, Abiola; Litzelman, Kristin; Wisk, Lauren E.; Maddox, Torsheika; Cheng, Erika Rose; Creswell, Paul D.; Witt, Whitney P.

2012-01-01

Objective This study sought to examine the relationship among the amount of stress, the perception that stress affects health, and health and mortality outcomes in a nationally-representative sample of U.S. adults. Methods Data from the 1998 National Health Interview Survey were linked to prospective National Death Index mortality data through 2006. Separate logistic regression models were used to examine the factors associated with current health status and psychological distress. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the impact of perceiving that stress affects health on all-cause mortality. Each model specifically examined the interaction between the amount of stress and the perception that stress affects health, controlling for sociodemographic, health behavior, and access to healthcare factors. Results 33.7% of nearly 186 million (n=28,753) U.S. adults perceived that stress affected their health a lot or to some extent. Both higher levels of reported stress and the perception that stress affects health were independently associated with an increased likelihood of worse health and mental health outcomes. The amount of stress and the perception that stress affects health interacted such that those who reported a lot of stress and that stress impacted their health a lot had a 43% increased risk of premature death (HR = 1.43, 95% CI [1.20, 1.71]). Conclusions High amounts of stress and the perception that stress impacts health are each associated with poor health and mental health. Individuals who perceived that stress affects their health and reported a large amount of stress had an increased risk of premature death. PMID:22201278

Relationships between personal attitudes about death and communication with terminally ill patients: How oncology clinicians grapple with mortality.

PubMed

Rodenbach, Rachel A; Rodenbach, Kyle E; Tejani, Mohamedtaki A; Epstein, Ronald M

2016-03-01

Clinician discomfort with death may affect care of patients but has not been well-studied. This study explores oncology clinicians' attitudes surrounding their own death and how these attitudes both affect and are affected by their care of dying patients and their communication with them. Qualitative interviews with physicians (n=25), nurse practitioners (n=7), and physician assistants (n=1) in medical or hematologic oncology clinical practices about communication styles, care of terminally ill patients, and personal perspectives about mortality. Clinicians described three communication styles used with patients about death and dying: direct, indirect, or selectively direct. Most reported an acceptance of their mortality that was "conditional," meaning that that they could not fully know how they would respond if actually terminally ill. For many clinicians, caring for dying patients affected their outlook on life and death, and their own perspectives on life and death affected their approach to caring for dying patients. An awareness of personal mortality may help clinicians to discuss death more openly with patients and to provide better care. Efforts to promote self-awareness and communication training are key to facilitating clear communication with and compassionate care of terminally ill patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term association between the intensity of cosmic rays and mortality rates in the city of Sao Paulo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, C. L. Z.; Janot-Pacheco, E.; Lage, C.; Pacini, A.; Koutrakis, P.; Cury, P. R.; Shaodan, H.; Pereira, L. A.; Saldiva, P. H. N.

2018-02-01

Human beings are constantly exposed to many kinds of environmental agents which affect their health and lifespan. Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are the main source of ionizing radiation in the lower troposphere, in which secondary products can penetrate the ground and underground layers. GCRs affect the physical-chemical properties of the terrestrial atmosphere, as well as the biosphere. GCRs are modulated by solar activity and latitudinal geomagnetic field distribution. In our ecological/populational retrospective study, we analyzed the correlation between the annual flux of local secondary GCR-induced ionization (CRII) and mortality rates in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1951-2012. The multivariate linear regression analyses adjusted by demographic and weather parameters showed that CRII are significantly correlated with total mortality, infectious disease mortality, maternal mortality, and perinatal mortality rates (p < 0.001). The underlying mechanisms are still unclear. Further cross-sectional and experimental cohort studies are necessary to understand the biophysical mechanisms of the association found here.

The Role of Ambient Ozone in Epidemiologic Studies of Heat-Related Mortality

PubMed Central

Snowden, Jonathan M.; Kontgis, Caitlin; Tager, Ira B.

2012-01-01

Background: A large and growing literature investigating the role of extreme heat on mortality has conceptualized the role of ambient ozone in various ways, sometimes treating it as a confounder, sometimes as an effect modifier, and sometimes as a co-exposure. Thus, there is a lack of consensus about the roles that temperature and ozone together play in causing mortality. Objectives: We applied directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to the topic of heat-related mortality to graphically represent the subject matter behind the research questions and to provide insight on the analytical options available. Discussion: On the basis of the subject matter encoded in the graphs, we assert that the role of ozone in studies of temperature and mortality is a causal intermediate that is affected by temperature and that can also affect mortality, rather than a confounder. Conclusions: We discuss possible questions of interest implied by this causal structure and propose areas of future work to further clarify the role of air pollutants in epidemiologic studies of extreme temperature. PMID:22899622

A Three-Step Approach To Model Tree Mortality in the State of Georgia

Treesearch

Qingmin Meng; Chris J. Cieszewski; Roger C. Lowe; Michal Zasada

2005-01-01

Tree mortality is one of the most complex phenomena of forest growth and yield. Many types of factors affect tree mortality, which is considered difficult to predict. This study presents a new systematic approach to simulate tree mortality based on the integration of statistical models and geographical information systems. This method begins with variable preselection...

Weight-elimination neural networks applied to coronary surgery mortality prediction.

PubMed

Ennett, Colleen M; Frize, Monique

2003-06-01

The objective was to assess the effectiveness of the weight-elimination cost function in improving classification performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and to observe how changing the a priori distribution of the training set affects network performance. Backpropagation feedforward ANNs with and without weight-elimination estimated mortality for coronary artery surgery patients. The ANNs were trained and tested on cases with 32 input variables describing the patient's medical history; the output variable was in-hospital mortality (mortality rates: training 3.7%, test 3.8%). Artificial training sets with mortality rates of 20%, 50%, and 80% were created to observe the impact of training with a higher-than-normal prevalence. When the results were averaged, weight-elimination networks achieved higher sensitivity rates than those without weight-elimination. Networks trained on higher-than-normal prevalence achieved higher sensitivity rates at the cost of lower specificity and correct classification. The weight-elimination cost function can improve the classification performance when the network is trained with a higher-than-normal prevalence. A network trained with a moderately high artificial mortality rate (artificial mortality rate of 20%) can improve the sensitivity of the model without significantly affecting other aspects of the model's performance. The ANN mortality model achieved comparable performance as additive and statistical models for coronary surgery mortality estimation in the literature.

Nonconsumptive predator-driven mortality causes natural selection on prey.

PubMed

Siepielski, Adam M; Wang, Jason; Prince, Garrett

2014-03-01

Predators frequently exert natural selection through differential consumption of their prey. However, predators may also cause prey mortality through nonconsumptive effects, which could cause selection if different prey phenotypes are differentially susceptible to this nonconsumptive mortality. Here we present an experimental test of this hypothesis, which reveals that nonconsumptive mortality imposed by predatory dragonflies causes selection on their damselfly prey favoring increased activity levels. These results are consistent with other studies of predator-driven selection, however, they reveal that consumption alone is not the only mechanism by which predators can exert selection on prey. Uncovering this mechanism also suggests that prey defensive traits may represent adaptations to not only avoid being consumed, but also for dealing with other sources of mortality caused by predators. Demonstrating selection through both consumptive and nonconsumptive predator mortality provides us with insight into the diverse effects of predators as an evolutionary force. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Effects of reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations on physiology and fluorescence of hermatypic corals and benthic algae

PubMed Central

Smith, Jennifer E.; Thompson, Melissa

2014-01-01

While shifts from coral to seaweed dominance have become increasingly common on coral reefs and factors triggering these shifts successively identified, the primary mechanisms involved in coral-algae interactions remain unclear. Amongst various potential mechanisms, algal exudates can mediate increases in microbial activity, leading to localized hypoxic conditions which may cause coral mortality in the direct vicinity. Most of the processes likely causing such algal exudate induced coral mortality have been quantified (e.g., labile organic matter release, increased microbial metabolism, decreased dissolved oxygen availability), yet little is known about how reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations affect competitive dynamics between seaweeds and corals. The goals of this study were to investigate the effects of different levels of oxygen including hypoxic conditions on a common hermatypic coral Acropora yongei and the common green alga Bryopsis pennata. Specifically, we examined how photosynthetic oxygen production, dark and daylight adapted quantum yield, intensity and anatomical distribution of the coral innate fluorescence, and visual estimates of health varied with differing background oxygen conditions. Our results showed that the algae were significantly more tolerant to extremely low oxygen concentrations (2–4 mg L−1) than corals. Furthermore corals could tolerate reduced oxygen concentrations, but only until a given threshold determined by a combination of exposure time and concentration. Exceeding this threshold led to rapid loss of coral tissue and mortality. This study concludes that hypoxia may indeed play a significant role, or in some cases may even be the main cause, for coral tissue loss during coral-algae interaction processes. PMID:24482757

Effects of reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations on physiology and fluorescence of hermatypic corals and benthic algae.

PubMed

Haas, Andreas F; Smith, Jennifer E; Thompson, Melissa; Deheyn, Dimitri D

2014-01-01

While shifts from coral to seaweed dominance have become increasingly common on coral reefs and factors triggering these shifts successively identified, the primary mechanisms involved in coral-algae interactions remain unclear. Amongst various potential mechanisms, algal exudates can mediate increases in microbial activity, leading to localized hypoxic conditions which may cause coral mortality in the direct vicinity. Most of the processes likely causing such algal exudate induced coral mortality have been quantified (e.g., labile organic matter release, increased microbial metabolism, decreased dissolved oxygen availability), yet little is known about how reduced dissolved oxygen concentrations affect competitive dynamics between seaweeds and corals. The goals of this study were to investigate the effects of different levels of oxygen including hypoxic conditions on a common hermatypic coral Acropora yongei and the common green alga Bryopsis pennata. Specifically, we examined how photosynthetic oxygen production, dark and daylight adapted quantum yield, intensity and anatomical distribution of the coral innate fluorescence, and visual estimates of health varied with differing background oxygen conditions. Our results showed that the algae were significantly more tolerant to extremely low oxygen concentrations (2-4 mg L(-1)) than corals. Furthermore corals could tolerate reduced oxygen concentrations, but only until a given threshold determined by a combination of exposure time and concentration. Exceeding this threshold led to rapid loss of coral tissue and mortality. This study concludes that hypoxia may indeed play a significant role, or in some cases may even be the main cause, for coral tissue loss during coral-algae interaction processes.

Using Integrated Assessment Models to Estimate the Economic Damages from Temperature Related Human Health Effects in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Calvin, K. V.; Puett, R.; Sapkota, A.; Schwarber, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase risks to human health. One pathway that may be particularly difficult to manage is adverse human health impacts (e.g. premature mortality and morbidity) from increases in mean temperatures and changing patterns of temperature extremes. Modeling how these health risks evolve over decadal time-scales is challenging as the severity of the impacts depends on changes in climate as well as socioeconomic conditions. Here, we show estimates of health damages as well as both direct and indirect economic damages that span climate and socioeconomic dimensions for each US state to 2050. We achieve this objective by extending the integrated assessment model (IAM), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA). First, we quantify the change in premature mortality. We identify a range of exposure-response relationships for temperature related mortality through a critical review of the literature. We then implement these relationships in the GCAM by coupling them with projections of future temperature patterns and population estimates. Second, we monetize the effect of these adverse health effects, including both direct and indirect economic costs through labor force participation and productivity along a range of possible economic pathways. Finally, we evaluate how uncertainty in the parameters and assumptions affects the range of possible estimates. We conclude that the model is sensitive to assumptions regarding exposure-response relationship and population growth. The economic damages, however, are driven by the estimates of income and GDP growth as well as the potential for adaptation measures, namely the use and effectiveness of air conditioning.

Assessing the Adaptability to Irregular Rest-Work Rhythms in Military Personnel

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-03-01

Aeronautica Militare Italiana, CSV Reparto Medicina Aerospaziale Pratica di Mare, 00040 Pomezia (Roma) Italy 2 Dipartimento di Psicologia - Universitd...characteristics to adapt to increased work errors and impaired social work at unusual hours. and family relationship. In addition, there is an increased mortality...DUTY: a brief questionnaire on critical evaluation. Journal of Personality the sleep-wake cycle and vigilance filled in and Social Psychology. 58: 844

Promoting cultural humility during labor and birth: putting theory into action during PRONTO obstetric and neonatal emergency training.

PubMed

Fahey, Jenifer O; Cohen, Susanna R; Holme, Francesca; Buttrick, Elizabeth S; Dettinger, Julia C; Kestler, Edgar; Walker, Dilys M

2013-01-01

Maternal and neonatal mortality in Northern Guatemala, a region with a high percentage of indigenous people, is disproportionately high. Initiatives to improve quality of care at local health facilities equipped for births, and increasing the number of births attended at these facilities will help address this problem. PRONTO (Programa de Rescate Obstétrico y Neonatal: Tratamiento Óptimo y Oportuno) is a low-tech, high-fidelity, simulation-based, provider-to-provider training in the management of obstetric and neonatal emergencies. This program has been successfully tested and implemented in Mexico. PRONTO will now be implemented in Guatemala as part of an initiative to decrease maternal and perinatal mortality. Guatemalan health authorities have requested that the training include training on cultural humility and humanized birth. This article describes the process of curricular adaptation to satisfy this request. The PRONTO team adapted the existing program through 4 steps: (a) analysis of the problem and context through a review of qualitative data and stakeholder interviews, (b) literature review and adoption of a theoretical framework regarding cultural humility and adult learning, (c) adaptation of the curriculum and design of new activities and simulations, and (d) implementation of adapted and expanded curriculum and further refinement in response to participant response.

Gravitational adaptation of animals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, A. H.; Burton, R. R.

1982-01-01

The effect of gravitational adaptation is studied in a group of five Leghorn cocks which had become physiologically adapted to 2 G after 162 days of centrifugation. After this period of adaptation, they are periodically exposed to a 2 G field, accompanied by five previously unexposed hatch-mates, and the degree of retained acceleration adaptation is estimated from the decrease in lymphocyte frequency after 24 hr at 2 G. Results show that the previously adapted birds exhibit an 84% greater lymphopenia than the unexposed birds, and that the lymphocyte frequency does not decrease to a level below that found at the end of 162 days at 2 G. In addition, the capacity for adaptation to chronic acceleration is found to be highly heritable. An acceleration tolerant strain of birds shows lesser mortality during chronic acceleration, particularly in intermediate fields, although the result of acceleration selection is largely quantitative (a greater number of survivors) rather than qualitative (behavioral or physiological changes).

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Were Equatorial Regions Less Affected by the 2009 Influenza Pandemic? The Brazilian Experience

PubMed Central

Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Moura, Fernanda E. A.; Fernandes, Roberto M.; Carvalho, Marcia L.; Alonso, Wladimir J.

2012-01-01

Although it is in the Tropics where nearly half of the world population lives and infectious disease burden is highest, little is known about the impact of influenza pandemics in this area. We investigated the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic relative to mortality rates from various outcomes in pre-pandemic years throughout a wide range of latitudes encompassing the entire tropical, and part of the subtropical, zone of the Southern Hemisphere (+5°N to −35°S) by focusing on a country with relatively uniform health care, disease surveillance, immunization and mitigation policies: Brazil. To this end, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed deaths and vital statistics mortality beyond pre-pandemic levels for each Brazilian state. Pneumonia, influenza and respiratory mortality were significantly higher during the pandemic, affecting predominantly adults aged 25 to 65 years. Overall, there were 2,273 and 2,787 additional P&I- and respiratory deaths during the pandemic, corresponding to a 5.2% and 2.7% increase, respectively, over average pre-pandemic annual mortality. However, there was a marked spatial structure in mortality that was independent of socio-demographic indicators and inversely related with income: mortality was progressively lower towards equatorial regions, where low or no difference from pre-pandemic mortality levels was identified. Additionally, the onset of pandemic-associated mortality was progressively delayed in equatorial states. Unexpectedly, there was no additional mortality from circulatory causes. Comparing disease burden reliably across regions is critical in those areas marked by competing health priorities and limited resources. Our results suggest, however, that tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere may have been disproportionally less affected by the pandemic, and that climate may have played a key role in this regard. These findings have a direct bearing on global estimates of pandemic burden and the assessment of the role of immunological, socioeconomic and environmental drivers of the transmissibility and severity of this pandemic. PMID:22870262

Factors influencing child mortality levels in rural Bangladesh: evidence from a micro study.

PubMed

Kabir, M; Uddin, M M; Hossain, M Z

1988-01-01

"This paper examines the factors that affect child mortality [in rural Bangladesh] by using a multivariate technique. The results suggest that mother's access to education and health care facilities are important determinants of child mortality. The access to maternal and child health programs and visit by the health workers were also related to low childhood mortality...." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA) excerpt

Universal mortality law and immortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azbel', Mark Ya.

2004-10-01

Well-protected human and laboratory animal populations with abundant resources are evolutionarily unprecedented. Physical approach, which takes advantage of their extensively quantified mortality, establishes that its dominant fraction yields the exact law, which is universal for all animals from yeast to humans. Singularities of the law demonstrate new kinds of stepwise adaptation. The law proves that universal mortality is an evolutionary by-product, which at any given age is reversible, independent of previous life history, and disposable. Life expectancy may be extended, arguably to immortality, by minor biological amendments in the animals. Indeed, in nematodes with a small number of perturbed genes and tissues it increased 6-fold (to 430 years in human terms), with no apparent loss in health and vitality. The law relates universal mortality to specific processes in cells and their genetic regulation.

Insular Alzheimer disease pathology and the psychometric correlates of mortality.

PubMed

Royall, Donald R

2008-03-01

Right hemisphere dysfunction is associated with mortality in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other neurologic conditions. These associations may be mediated by insular pathology, as insular lesions result in demonstrable changes in cardiovascular and autonomic control. AD affects the insulae at a preclinical stage, and insular AD pathology may be present in up to 40% of nondemented septuagenarians and octogenarians. This pathology can affect in vivo cardiac conduction and thereby dispose to cardiac arrhythmias and sudden death. Thus, AD pathology should be considered as a possible explanation for autonomic morbidity and mortality in nondemented elderly persons.

Racial Inequality and Child Mortality in Brazil.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Charles H.; Lovell, Peggy A.

1992-01-01

In 1980 urban Brazil, race of mother significantly affected child mortality after controlling for region, income, and parent education, with a mortality gap of 6.7 years between the whites and Afro-Brazilians. Parent education, indoor plumbing, access to public health care, and presence of adult females significantly reduced the probability of…

Multiple deleterious effects of experimentally aged sperm in a monogamous bird

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, J.; Wagner, R.H.; Helfenstein, F.; Hatch, Shyla A.; Mulard, Hervé; Naves, L.C.; Danchin, E.

2008-01-01

Sperm aging is known to be detrimental to reproductive performance. However, this apparently general phenomenon has seldom been studied in an evolutionary context. The negative impact of sperm aging on parental fitness should constitute a strong selective pressure for adaptations to avoid its effects. We studied the impact of sperm aging on black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), a monogamous seabird. Kittiwakes comprise a model system because (i) of evidence that females eject their mates' sperm to prevent fertilization by sperm that would be old and degraded by the time of fertilization and result in reduced reproductive performance and (ii) the lack of extra-pair fertilization in this species makes cryptic female choice an unlikely explanation of postcopulatory sperm ejection by females. We experimentally manipulated the age of the sperm fertilizing kittiwake eggs by fitting males with anti-insemination rings for variable periods of time preceding egg-laying. We found evidence that sperm aging negatively affected four sequential stages of reproduction: fertilization potential, rate of embryonic development, embryonic mortality, and chick condition at hatching. These results may be produced by a continuum of a single process of sperm aging that differentially affects various aspects of development, depending on the degree of damage incurred to the spermatozoa. The marked impact of sperm age on female fitness may thus drive postcopulatory sperm ejection by females. These results provide experimental evidence of deleterious effects of sperm aging on a nondomestic vertebrate, underlining its taxonomic generality and its potential to select for a wide array of adaptations. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Assessing health and economic outcomes of interventions to reduce pregnancy-related mortality in Nigeria.

PubMed

Erim, Daniel O; Resch, Stephen C; Goldie, Sue J

2012-09-14

Women in Nigeria face some of the highest maternal mortality risks in the world. We explore the benefits and cost-effectiveness of individual and integrated packages of interventions to prevent pregnancy-related deaths. We adapt a previously validated maternal mortality model to Nigeria. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to Southwest and Northeast zones using survey-based data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions, and could include improved logistics. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality, was cost saving in the Southwest zone and cost-effective elsewhere, and prevented nearly 1 in 5 abortion-related deaths. However, with a singular focus on family planning and safe abortion, mortality reduction would plateau below MDG 5. Strategies that could prevent 4 out of 5 maternal deaths included an integrated and stepwise approach that includes increased skilled deliveries, facility births, access to antenatal/postpartum care, improved recognition of referral need, transport, and availability quality of EmOC in addition to family planning and safe abortion. The economic benefits of these strategies ranged from being cost-saving to having incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $500 per YLS, well below Nigeria's per capita GDP. Early intensive efforts to improve family planning and control of fertility choices, accompanied by a stepwise effort to scale-up capacity for integrated maternal health services over several years, will save lives and provide equal or greater value than many public health interventions we consider among the most cost-effective (e.g., childhood immunization).

Desiccation and Mortality Dynamics in Seedlings of Different European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Populations under Extreme Drought Conditions.

PubMed

Bolte, Andreas; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Cocozza, Claudia; Tognetti, Roberto; de Miguel, Marina; Pšidová, Eva; Ditmarová, Ĺubica; Dinca, Lucian; Delzon, Sylvain; Cochard, Hervè; Ræbild, Anders; de Luis, Martin; Cvjetkovic, Branislav; Heiri, Caroline; Müller, Jürgen

2016-01-01

European beech (Fagus sylvatica L., hereafter beech), one of the major native tree species in Europe, is known to be drought sensitive. Thus, the identification of critical thresholds of drought impact intensity and duration are of high interest for assessing the adaptive potential of European beech to climate change in its native range. In a common garden experiment with one-year-old seedlings originating from central and marginal origins in six European countries (Denmark, Germany, France, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Spain), we applied extreme drought stress and observed desiccation and mortality processes among the different populations and related them to plant water status (predawn water potential, ΨPD) and soil hydraulic traits. For the lethal drought assessment, we used a critical threshold of soil water availability that is reached when 50% mortality in seedling populations occurs (LD50SWA). We found significant population differences in LD50SWA (10.5-17.8%), and mortality dynamics that suggest a genetic difference in drought resistance between populations. The LD50SWA values correlate significantly with the mean growing season precipitation at population origins, but not with the geographic margins of beech range. Thus, beech range marginality may be more due to climatic conditions than to geographic range. The outcome of this study suggests the genetic variation has a major influence on the varying adaptive potential of the investigated populations.

Elevated levels of placental growth factor represent an adaptive host response in sepsis.

PubMed

Yano, Kiichiro; Okada, Yoshiaki; Beldi, Guido; Shih, Shou-Ching; Bodyak, Natalya; Okada, Hitomi; Kang, Peter M; Luscinskas, William; Robson, Simon C; Carmeliet, Peter; Karumanchi, S Ananth; Aird, William C

2008-10-27

Recently, we demonstrated that circulating levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and placental growth factor (PlGF) are increased in sepsis (Yano, K., P.C. Liaw, J.M. Mullington, S.C. Shih, H. Okada, N. Bodyak, P.M. Kang, L. Toltl, B. Belikoff, J. Buras, et al. 2006. J. Exp. Med. 203:1447-1458). Moreover, enhanced VEGF/Flk-1 signaling was shown to contribute to sepsis morbidity and mortality. We tested the hypothesis that PlGF also contributes to sepsis outcome. In mouse models of endotoxemia and cecal ligation puncture, the genetic absence of PlGF or the systemic administration of neutralizing anti-PlGF antibodies resulted in higher mortality compared with wild-type or immunoglobulin G-injected controls, respectively. The increased mortality associated with genetic deficiency of PlGF was reversed by adenovirus (Ad)-mediated overexpression of PlGF. In the endotoxemia model, PlGF deficiency was associated with elevated circulating levels of VEGF, induction of VEGF expression in the liver, impaired cardiac function, and organ-specific accentuation of barrier dysfunction and inflammation. Mortality of endotoxemic PlGF-deficient mice was increased by Ad-mediated overexpression of VEGF and was blocked by expression of soluble Flt-1. Collectively, these data suggest that up-regulation of PlGF in sepsis is an adaptive host response that exerts its benefit, at least in part, by attenuating VEGF signaling.

Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries.

PubMed

Dolejs, Josef; Marešová, Petra

2017-01-01

The answer to the question "At what age does aging begin?" is tightly related to the question "Where is the onset of mortality increase with age?" Age affects mortality rates from all diseases differently than it affects mortality rates from nonbiological causes. Mortality increase with age in adult populations has been modeled by many authors, and little attention has been given to mortality decrease with age after birth. Nonbiological causes are excluded, and the category "all diseases" is studied. It is analyzed in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the period 1994-2011, and all possible models are screened. Age trajectories of mortality are analyzed separately: before the age category where mortality reaches its minimal value and after the age category. Resulting age trajectories from all diseases showed a strong minimum, which was hidden in total mortality. The inverse proportion between mortality and age fitted in 54 of 58 cases before mortality minimum. The Gompertz model with two parameters fitted as mortality increased with age in 17 of 58 cases after mortality minimum, and the Gompertz model with a small positive quadratic term fitted data in the remaining 41 cases. The mean age where mortality reached minimal value was 8 (95% confidence interval 7.05-8.95) years. The figures depict an age where the human population has a minimal risk of death from biological causes. Inverse proportion and the Gompertz model fitted data on both sides of the mortality minimum, and three parameters determined the shape of the age-mortality trajectory. Life expectancy should be determined by the two standard Gompertz parameters and also by the single parameter in the model c/x. All-disease mortality represents an alternative tool to study the impact of age. All results are based on published data.

Processes affecting altitudinal distribution of invasive Ageratina adenophora in western Himalaya: The role of local adaptation and the importance of different life-cycle stages

PubMed Central

Kühn, Ingolf; Ahmad, Mustaqeem; Michalski, Stefan; Auge, Harald

2017-01-01

The spread of invasive plants along elevational gradients is considered a threat to fragile mountain ecosystems, but it can also provide the opportunity to better understand some of the basic processes driving the success of invasive species. Ageratina adenophora (Asteraceae) is an invasive plant of global importance and has a broad distribution along elevational gradients in the Western Himalayas. Our study aimed at understanding the role of evolutionary processes (e.g. local adaptation and clinal differentiation) and different life history stages in shaping the distribution pattern of the invasive plant along an elevational gradient in the Western Himalaya. We carried out extensive distributional surveys, established a reciprocal transplant experiment with common gardens at three elevational levels, and measured a suite of traits related to germination, growth, reproduction and phenology. Our results showed a lack of local adaptation, and we did not find any evidence for clinal differentiation in any measured trait except a rather weak signal for plant height. We found that seed germination was the crucial life-cycle transition in determining the lower range limit while winter mortality of plants shaped the upper range limit in our study area, thus explaining the hump shaped distribution pattern. Differences in trait values between gardens for most traits indicated a high degree of phenotypic plasticity. Possible causes such as apomixis, seed dispersal among sites, and pre-adaptation might have confounded evolutionary processes to act upon. Our results suggest that the success and spread of Ageratina adenophora are dependent on different life history stages at different elevations that are controlled by abiotic conditions. PMID:29125852

Pseudomonas aeruginosa Lifestyle: A Paradigm for Adaptation, Survival, and Persistence

PubMed Central

Moradali, M. Fata; Ghods, Shirin; Rehm, Bernd H. A.

2017-01-01

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen affecting immunocompromised patients. It is known as the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients and as one of the leading causes of nosocomial infections. Due to a range of mechanisms for adaptation, survival and resistance to multiple classes of antibiotics, infections by P. aeruginosa strains can be life-threatening and it is emerging worldwide as public health threat. This review highlights the diversity of mechanisms by which P. aeruginosa promotes its survival and persistence in various environments and particularly at different stages of pathogenesis. We will review the importance and complexity of regulatory networks and genotypic-phenotypic variations known as adaptive radiation by which P. aeruginosa adjusts physiological processes for adaptation and survival in response to environmental cues and stresses. Accordingly, we will review the central regulatory role of quorum sensing and signaling systems by nucleotide-based second messengers resulting in different lifestyles of P. aeruginosa. Furthermore, various regulatory proteins will be discussed which form a plethora of controlling systems acting at transcriptional level for timely expression of genes enabling rapid responses to external stimuli and unfavorable conditions. Antibiotic resistance is a natural trait for P. aeruginosa and multiple mechanisms underlying different forms of antibiotic resistance will be discussed here. The importance of each mechanism in conferring resistance to various antipseudomonal antibiotics and their prevalence in clinical strains will be described. The underlying principles for acquiring resistance leading pan-drug resistant strains will be summarized. A future outlook emphasizes the need for collaborative international multidisciplinary efforts to translate current knowledge into strategies to prevent and treat P. aeruginosa infections while reducing the rate of antibiotic resistance and avoiding the spreading of resistant strains. PMID:28261568

Processes affecting altitudinal distribution of invasive Ageratina adenophora in western Himalaya: The role of local adaptation and the importance of different life-cycle stages.

PubMed

Datta, Arunava; Kühn, Ingolf; Ahmad, Mustaqeem; Michalski, Stefan; Auge, Harald

2017-01-01

The spread of invasive plants along elevational gradients is considered a threat to fragile mountain ecosystems, but it can also provide the opportunity to better understand some of the basic processes driving the success of invasive species. Ageratina adenophora (Asteraceae) is an invasive plant of global importance and has a broad distribution along elevational gradients in the Western Himalayas. Our study aimed at understanding the role of evolutionary processes (e.g. local adaptation and clinal differentiation) and different life history stages in shaping the distribution pattern of the invasive plant along an elevational gradient in the Western Himalaya. We carried out extensive distributional surveys, established a reciprocal transplant experiment with common gardens at three elevational levels, and measured a suite of traits related to germination, growth, reproduction and phenology. Our results showed a lack of local adaptation, and we did not find any evidence for clinal differentiation in any measured trait except a rather weak signal for plant height. We found that seed germination was the crucial life-cycle transition in determining the lower range limit while winter mortality of plants shaped the upper range limit in our study area, thus explaining the hump shaped distribution pattern. Differences in trait values between gardens for most traits indicated a high degree of phenotypic plasticity. Possible causes such as apomixis, seed dispersal among sites, and pre-adaptation might have confounded evolutionary processes to act upon. Our results suggest that the success and spread of Ageratina adenophora are dependent on different life history stages at different elevations that are controlled by abiotic conditions.

Development of Disease-specific, Context-specific Surveillance Models: Avian Influenza (H5N1)-Related Risks and Behaviours in African Countries.

PubMed

Fasina, F O; Njage, P M K; Ali, A M M; Yilma, J M; Bwala, D G; Rivas, A L; Stegeman, A J

2016-02-01

Avian influenza virus (H5N1) is a rapidly disseminating infection that affects poultry and, potentially, humans. Because the avian virus has already adapted to several mammalian species, decreasing the rate of avian-mammalian contacts is critical to diminish the chances of a total adaptation of H5N1 to humans. To prevent the pandemic such adaptation could facilitate, a biology-specific disease surveillance model is needed, which should also consider geographical and socio-cultural factors. Here, we conceptualized a surveillance model meant to capture H5N1-related biological and cultural aspects, which included food processing, trade and cooking-related practices, as well as incentives (or disincentives) for desirable behaviours. This proof of concept was tested with data collected from 378 Egyptian and Nigerian sites (local [backyard] producers/live bird markets/village abattoirs/commercial abattoirs and veterinary agencies). Findings revealed numerous opportunities for pathogens to disseminate, as well as lack of incentives to adopt preventive measures, and factors that promoted epidemic dissemination. Supporting such observations, the estimated risk for H5N1-related human mortality was higher than previously reported. The need for multidimensional disease surveillance models, which may detect risks at higher levels than models that only measure one factor or outcome, was supported. To develop efficient surveillance systems, interactions should be captured, which include but exceed biological factors. This low-cost and easily implementable model, if conducted over time, may identify focal instances where tailored policies may diminish both endemicity and the total adaptation of H5N1 to the human species. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Causes of Death in Men With Prevalent Diabetes and Newly Diagnosed High- Versus Favorable-Risk Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D'Amico, Anthony V., E-mail: adamico@partners.or; Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J.

2010-08-01

Purpose: To determine whether prevalent diabetes mellitus (pDM) affects the presentation, extent of radiotherapy, or prostate cancer (PCa)-specific mortality (PCSM) and whether PCa aggressiveness affects the risk of non-PCSM, DM-related mortality, and all-cause mortality in men with pDM. Methods: Between October 1997 and July 2907, 5,279 men treated at the Chicago Prostate Cancer Center with radiotherapy for PCa were included in the study. Logistic and competing risk regression analyses were performed to assess whether pDM was associated with high-grade PCa, less aggressive radiotherapy, and an increased risk of PCSM. Competing risks and Cox regression analyses were performed to assess whethermore » PCa aggressiveness described by risk group in men with pDM was associated with the risk of non-PCSM, DM-related mortality, and all-cause mortality. Analyses were adjusted for predictors of high-grade PCa and factors that could affect treatment extent and mortality. Results: Men with pDM were more likely (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.7; p = .002) to present with high-grade PCa but were not treated less aggressively (p = .33) and did not have an increased risk of PCSM (p = .58) compared to men without pDM. Among the men with pDM, high-risk PCa was associated with a greater risk of non-PCSM (AHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.5; p = .035), DM-related mortality (AHR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.0-14.0; p = .001), and all-cause mortality (AHR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.7; p = .01) compared to favorable-risk PCa. Conclusion: Aggressive management of pDM is warranted in men with high-risk PCa.« less

CNS embryonal tumours: WHO 2016 and beyond.

PubMed

Pickles, J C; Hawkins, C; Pietsch, T; Jacques, T S

2018-02-01

Embryonal tumours of the central nervous system (CNS) present a significant clinical challenge. Many of these neoplasms affect young children, have a very high mortality and therapeutic strategies are often aggressive with poor long-term outcomes. There is a great need to accurately diagnose embryonal tumours, predict their outcome and adapt therapy to the individual patient's risk. For the first time in 2016, the WHO classification took into account molecular characteristics for the diagnosis of CNS tumours. This integration of histological features with genetic information has significantly changed the diagnostic work-up and reporting of tumours of the CNS. However, this remains challenging in embryonal tumours due to their previously unaccounted tumour heterogeneity. We describe the recent revisions made to the 4th edition of the WHO classification of CNS tumours and review the main changes, while highlighting some of the more common diagnostic testing strategies. © 2017 British Neuropathological Society.

Does the perception that stress affects health matter? The association with health and mortality.

PubMed

Keller, Abiola; Litzelman, Kristin; Wisk, Lauren E; Maddox, Torsheika; Cheng, Erika Rose; Creswell, Paul D; Witt, Whitney P

2012-09-01

This study sought to examine the relationship among the amount of stress, the perception that stress affects health, and health and mortality outcomes in a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. Data from the 1998 National Health Interview Survey were linked to prospective National Death Index mortality data through 2006. Separate logistic regression models were used to examine the factors associated with current health status and psychological distress. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the impact of perceiving that stress affects health on all-cause mortality. Each model specifically examined the interaction between the amount of stress and the perception that stress affects health, controlling for sociodemographic, health behavior, and access to health care factors. 33.7% of nearly 186 million (unweighted n = 28,753) U.S. adults perceived that stress affected their health a lot or to some extent. Both higher levels of reported stress and the perception that stress affects health were independently associated with an increased likelihood of worse health and mental health outcomes. The amount of stress and the perception that stress affects health interacted such that those who reported a lot of stress and that stress impacted their health a lot had a 43% increased risk of premature death (HR = 1.43, 95% CI [1.2, 1.7]). High amounts of stress and the perception that stress impacts health are each associated with poor health and mental health. Individuals who perceived that stress affects their health and reported a large amount of stress had an increased risk of premature death. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Biological, social, and urban design factors affecting young street tree mortality in New York City

Treesearch

Jacqueline W.T. Lu; Erika S. Svendsen; Lindsay K. Campbell; Jennifer Greenfeld; Jessie Braden; Kristen King; Nancy Falxa-Raymond

2010-01-01

In dense metropolitan areas, there are many factors including traffic congestion, building development and social organizations that may impact the health of street trees. The focus of this study is to better understand how social, biological and urban design factors affect the mortality rates of newly planted street trees. Prior analyses of street trees planted by the...

The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

PubMed

Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

2015-11-01

Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A questionnaire-wide association study of personality and mortality: the Vietnam Experience Study.

PubMed

Weiss, Alexander; Gale, Catharine R; Batty, G David; Deary, Ian J

2013-06-01

We examined the association between the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) and all-cause mortality in 4462 middle-aged Vietnam-era veterans. We split the study population into half-samples. In each half, we used proportional hazards (Cox) regression to test the 550 MMPI items' associations with mortality over 15years. In all participants, we subjected significant (p<.01) items in both halves to principal-components analysis (PCA). We used Cox regression to test whether these components predicted mortality when controlling for other predictors (demographics, cognitive ability, health behaviors, and mental/physical health). Eighty-nine items were associated with mortality in both half-samples. PCA revealed Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity, Somatic Complaints, Psychotic/Paranoia, and Antisocial components, and a higher-order component, Personal Disturbance. Individually, Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity (HR=1.55; 95% CI=1.39, 1.72), Somatic Complaints (HR=1.66; 95% CI=1.52, 1.80), Psychotic/Paranoid (HR=1.44; 95% CI=1.32, 1.57), Antisocial (HR=1.79; 95% CI=1.59, 2.01), and Personal Disturbance (HR=1.74; 95% CI=1.58, 1.91) were associated with risk. Including covariates attenuated these associations (28.4 to 54.5%), though they were still significant. After entering Personal Disturbance into models with each component, Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity and Somatic Complaints were significant, although Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity's were now protective (HR=0.73; 95% CI=0.58, 0.92). When the four components were entered together with or without covariates, Somatic Complaints and Antisocial were significant risk factors. Somatic Complaints and Personal Disturbance are associated with increased mortality risk. Other components' effects varied as a function of variables in the model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

PubMed

Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Sources and Sinks: A Stochastic Model of Evolution in Heterogeneous Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermsen, Rutger; Hwa, Terence

2010-12-01

We study evolution driven by spatial heterogeneity in a stochastic model of source-sink ecologies. A sink is a habitat where mortality exceeds reproduction so that a local population persists only due to immigration from a source. Immigrants can, however, adapt to conditions in the sink by mutation. To characterize the adaptation rate, we derive expressions for the first arrival time of adapted mutants. The joint effects of migration, mutation, birth, and death result in two distinct parameter regimes. These results may pertain to the rapid evolution of drug-resistant pathogens and insects.

Age and Diet Affect Genetically Separable Secondary Injuries that Cause Acute Mortality Following Traumatic Brain Injury in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Katzenberger, Rebeccah J.; Ganetzky, Barry; Wassarman, David A.

2016-01-01

Outcomes of traumatic brain injury (TBI) vary because of differences in primary and secondary injuries. Primary injuries occur at the time of a traumatic event, whereas secondary injuries occur later as a result of cellular and molecular events activated in the brain and other tissues by primary injuries. We used a Drosophila melanogaster TBI model to investigate secondary injuries that cause acute mortality. By analyzing mortality percentage within 24 hr of primary injuries, we previously found that age at the time of primary injuries and diet afterward affect the severity of secondary injuries. Here, we show that secondary injuries peaked in activity 1–8 hr after primary injuries. Additionally, we demonstrate that age and diet activated distinct secondary injuries in a genotype-specific manner, and that concurrent activation of age- and diet-regulated secondary injuries synergistically increased mortality. To identify genes involved in secondary injuries that cause mortality, we compared genome-wide mRNA expression profiles of uninjured and injured flies under age and diet conditions that had different mortalities. During the peak period of secondary injuries, innate immune response genes were the predominant class of genes that changed expression. Furthermore, age and diet affected the magnitude of the change in expression of some innate immune response genes, suggesting roles for these genes in inhibiting secondary injuries that cause mortality. Our results indicate that the complexity of TBI outcomes is due in part to distinct, genetically controlled, age- and diet-regulated mechanisms that promote secondary injuries and that involve a subset of innate immune response genes. PMID:27754853

Individual and Center-Level Factors Affecting Mortality Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

Alleman, Brandon W.; Li, Lei; Dagle, John M.; Smith, P. Brian; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Laughon, Matthew M.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Goldberg, Ronald N.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Murray, Jeffrey C.; Cotten, C. Michael; Shankaran, Seetha; Walsh, Michele C.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Ellsbury, Dan L.; Hale, Ellen C.; Newman, Nancy S.; Wallace, Dennis D.; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine factors affecting center differences in mortality for extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. METHODS: We analyzed data for 5418 ELBW infants born at 16 Neonatal Research Network centers during 2006–2009. The primary outcomes of early mortality (≤12 hours after birth) and in-hospital mortality were assessed by using multilevel hierarchical models. Models were developed to investigate associations of center rates of selected interventions with mortality while adjusting for patient-level risk factors. These analyses were performed for all gestational ages (GAs) and separately for GAs <25 weeks and ≥25 weeks. RESULTS: Early and in-hospital mortality rates among centers were 5% to 36% and 11% to 53% for all GAs, 13% to 73% and 28% to 90% for GAs <25 weeks, and 1% to 11% and 7% to 26% for GAs ≥25 weeks, respectively. Center intervention rates significantly predicted both early and in-hospital mortality for infants <25 weeks. For infants ≥25 weeks, intervention rates did not predict mortality. The variance in mortality among centers was significant for all GAs and outcomes. Center use of interventions and patient risk factors explained some but not all of the center variation in mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Center intervention rates explain a portion of the center variation in mortality, especially for infants born at <25 weeks’ GA. This finding suggests that deaths may be prevented by standardizing care for very early GA infants. However, differences in patient characteristics and center intervention rates do not account for all of the observed variability in mortality; and for infants with GA ≥25 weeks these differences account for only a small part of the variation in mortality. PMID:23753096

Social Life Factors Affecting Suicide in Japanese Men and Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Araki, Shunichi; Murata, Katsuyuki

1986-01-01

Examined relationship between social and demographic indicators and age-adjusted suicide mortality in 46 prefectures in Japan. Rural residence was the major factor for male mortality in 1970 and 1975. In 1970, home help for the elderly, depopulation by social mobility, and urban residence were positively associated with male mortality. In women,…

Does dietary tryptophan around farrowing affect sow behavior and piglet mortality

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Piglet mortality remains a serious welfare and economic problem. Much of the early mortality is due to crushing by the sow. Tryptophan has been shown to reduce aggression and have a calming effect on behaviour, which may reduce the number and type of posture changes, thereby altering risk of crushin...

Changes in understory species occurrence of a secondary broadleaved forest after mass mortality of oak trees under deer foraging pressure

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The epidemic of mass mortality of oak trees by Japanese oak wilt has affected secondary deciduous broadleaved forests that have been used as coppices in Japan. The dieback of oak trees formed gaps in the crown that would be expected to enhance the regeneration of shade-intolerant pioneer species. However, foraging by sika deer Cervus nippon has also affected forest vegetation, and the compound effects of both on forest regeneration should be considered when they simultaneously occur. A field study was conducted in Kyôto City, Japan to investigate how these compound effects affected the vegetation of the understory layer of these forests. The presence/absence of seedlings and saplings was observed for 200 quadrats sized 5 m ×5 m for each species in 1992, before the mass mortality and deer encroachment, and in 2014 after these effects. A hierarchical Bayesian model was constructed to explain the occurrence, survival, and colonization of each species with their responses to the gaps that were created, expanded, or affected by the mass mortality of Quercus serrata trees. The species that occurred most frequently in 1992, Eurya japonica, Quercus glauca, and Cleyera japonica, also had the highest survival probabilities. Deer-unpalatable species such as Symplocos prunifolia and Triadica sebifera had higher colonization rates in the gaps, while the deer-palatable species Aucuba japonica had the smallest survival probability. The gaps thus promoted the colonization of deer-unpalatable plant species such as Symplocos prunifolia and Triadica sebifera. In the future, such deer-unpalatable species may dominate gaps that were created, expanded, or affected by the mass mortality of oak trees. PMID:28028480

Changes in understory species occurrence of a secondary broadleaved forest after mass mortality of oak trees under deer foraging pressure.

PubMed

Itô, Hiroki

2016-01-01

The epidemic of mass mortality of oak trees by Japanese oak wilt has affected secondary deciduous broadleaved forests that have been used as coppices in Japan. The dieback of oak trees formed gaps in the crown that would be expected to enhance the regeneration of shade-intolerant pioneer species. However, foraging by sika deer Cervus nippon has also affected forest vegetation, and the compound effects of both on forest regeneration should be considered when they simultaneously occur. A field study was conducted in Kyôto City, Japan to investigate how these compound effects affected the vegetation of the understory layer of these forests. The presence/absence of seedlings and saplings was observed for 200 quadrats sized 5 m ×5 m for each species in 1992, before the mass mortality and deer encroachment, and in 2014 after these effects. A hierarchical Bayesian model was constructed to explain the occurrence, survival, and colonization of each species with their responses to the gaps that were created, expanded, or affected by the mass mortality of Quercus serrata trees. The species that occurred most frequently in 1992, Eurya japonica , Quercus glauca , and Cleyera japonica , also had the highest survival probabilities. Deer-unpalatable species such as Symplocos prunifolia and Triadica sebifera had higher colonization rates in the gaps, while the deer-palatable species Aucuba japonica had the smallest survival probability. The gaps thus promoted the colonization of deer-unpalatable plant species such as Symplocos prunifolia and Triadica sebifera . In the future, such deer-unpalatable species may dominate gaps that were created, expanded, or affected by the mass mortality of oak trees.

Vulnerability and resilience to droughts in South-West USA: carbon allocation and impact on wood and evaporative anatomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerin, M. F.; von Arx, G.; McDowell, N. G.; Pockman, W.; Andreu-Hayles, L.; Gentine, P.

2015-12-01

Survival and distribution of conifers across the globe will depend on their adaptive potential to the new climatic conditions (warmer, more droughts, heat waves). Recent studies predicting forest evolution have mainly focused on understanding tree mortality processes (hydraulic failure, carbon starvation, biotic stresses). These explicit causes of mortality are also the result of unsuccessful adaptation on a longer period. Using a 7 years drought-irrigation experiment in New Mexico, USA, we investigated the response to water availability on structure-function interactions at the tree level. Bridging dendrology and physiology on multiple individuals of local Pinion pine, we observe a structural dynamics in i) wood anatomy ii) evaporative anatomy and a resulting functional dynamics in i) leaf water potential and ii) water use efficiency on multiple time scales (daily to interannual). These results emphasize the tight coupling between carbon allocation and the surface hydrologic cycle on longer time scales and its impact on resilience and mortality, which is not included in current generation land-surface models. figure: Wood anatomy obtained from a 5.2mm core of a Pinion Edulis from the experimental site - illustrating the variability of the water transport capacities accross years

Effects of the 2015 heat wave on benthic invertebrates in the Tabarca Marine Protected Area (southeast Spain).

PubMed

Rubio-Portillo, Esther; Izquierdo-Muñoz, Andrés; Gago, Juan F; Rosselló-Mora, Ramon; Antón, Josefa; Ramos-Esplá, Alfonso A

2016-12-01

In the late summer of 2015, extensive mortality of scleratinian corals, gorgonians, and sponges was observed in the Marine Protected Area of Tabarca (southeast Spain). Quantitative data indicated that at 25 m depth the sea fan Eunicella singularis was the most affected species (50% of colonies affected by partial mortality); while in shallow waters more than 40% of the endemic scleractinian coral Cladocora caespitosa population showed tissue lesions that affected more than 10% of their surfaces. Other affected species were the scleractinian corals Oculina patagonica and Phyllangia mouchezii, the sea fan Leptogorgia sarmentosa and the sponge Sarcotragus fasciculatus. This mortality event coincided with an abnormal rise in seawater temperature in this region. Microbiological analysis showed a higher abundance of culturable Vibrio species in invertebrates exhibiting tissue lesions, which indicated that these opportunistic pathogens could be a key factor in the process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate the number of annual excess deaths attributable to increased summer temperatures. Warmer average temperatures are expected to cause 173 additional deaths due to cardiovascular stress, while higher minimum temperatures will cause 67 additional deaths. This work particularly improves on the spatial resolution of published analyses of heat-related mortality in the US.

Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

PubMed

Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

2006-02-01

A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of risk-adjusted mortality data with an E-O plot and a risk-adjusted p chart is feasible and allows the rapid detection of changes in risk-adjusted outcome of intensive care patients. This complements the centralised national database, which is more archival and comparative in nature.

Geographic origins and population genetics of bats killed at wind-energy facilities.

PubMed

Pylant, Cortney L; Nelson, David M; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Gates, J Edward; Keller, Stephen R

2016-07-01

An unanticipated impact of wind-energy development has been large-scale mortality of insectivorous bats. In eastern North America, where mortality rates are among the highest in the world, the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) and the eastern red bat (L. borealis) comprise the majority of turbine-associated bat mortality. Both species are migratory tree bats with widespread distributions; however, little is known regarding the geographic origins of bats killed at wind-energy facilities or the diversity and population structure of affected species. We addressed these unknowns by measuring stable hydrogen isotope ratios (δ 2 H) and conducting population genetic analyses of bats killed at wind-energy facilities in the central Appalachian Mountains (USA) to determine the summering origins, effective size, structure, and temporal stability of populations. Our results indicate that ~1% of hoary bat mortalities and ~57% of red bat mortalities derive from non-local sources, with no relationship between the proportion of non-local bats and sex, location of mortality, or month of mortality. Additionally, our data indicate that hoary bats in our sample consist of an unstructured population with a small effective size (N e ) and either a stable or declining history. Red bats also showed no evidence of population genetic structure, but in contrast to hoary bats, the diversity contained in our red bat samples is consistent with a much larger N e that reflects a demographic expansion after a bottleneck. These results suggest that the impacts of mortality associated with intensive wind-energy development may affect bat species dissimilarly, with red bats potentially better able to absorb sustained mortality than hoary bats because of their larger N e . Our results provide important baseline data and also illustrate the utility of stable isotopes and population genetics for monitoring bat populations affected by wind-energy development. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China.

PubMed

Li, Ying; Ren, Ting; Kinney, Patrick L; Joyner, Andrew; Zhang, Wei

2018-05-01

Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Implementation strategy for achieving replacement level fertility.

PubMed

1993-01-01

The recommendation of the Bali Declaration on Population and Sustainable Development at the ESCAP regional conference was to adopt strategies for attaining replacement-level fertility of 2.1 or 2.2 children by 2010. East Asian countries, except Mongolia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and the Southeast Asian countries Singapore and Thailand have already reached replacement-level fertility. Most larger Oceanic countries have also done so. Only South Asian Sri Lanka and southern India have attained replacement level. The following conditions slow or hinder the goal, but they do not provide an "absolute" barrier to fertility decline: social welfare schemes and old age security, son preference, lack of government family planning, poverty, relatively high mortality, low status of women, and education status. Theories of demographic transition have postulated that economic and social development initially brings a decline in mortality, and later brings a decline in fertility; and high fertility was an adaptation to high mortality. Policy gets caught in the lag between mortality and fertility decline. Eventually the cultural motives for high fertility are undercut by social and economic development. Although the generalization that economic growth slows fertility is true for South Asia, the correlation is uneven. Forceful government-sponsored family planning programs in Bangladesh and China may lead the way to strategies for decline in ESCAP region. A Thailand study suggested important factors were fundamental social change, the increased cost of children, cultural acceptance of birth control, a latent demand for fertility control, and government efforts in family planning. ESCAP countries have in common relatively high morality and inadequate public health programs, patriarchal structures, and limited female autonomy, poverty and landlessness, lack of community cohesiveness, and inadequate family planning programs. Weaknesses in programs are attributed to failure to recognize policies that affect reproduction and the difference between male power and female responsibility. Direct strategies should involve strong government support for male and female contraception, government promotion of delayed marriage, and an emphasis on reproductive health in female family planning programs.

Marital relationships as a cause of death: an analysis of occupational mortality and the hidden consequences of marriage--some U.K. data.

PubMed

Fletcher, B C

1983-02-01

The relationship between a married woman's life expectancy and the occupation of her husband is explored using official data for the United Kingdom for 1959-1963 and 1970-1972. The author notes that not only are there large and specific effects of employees' occupations on life expectancy and mortality rates, but that these mortality differentials also affect the spouses of those in high-risk occupations. It is suggested that such occupational risks are transmitted via the domestic psychological environment to the married women concerned, and thus the males' job risks affect the life expectancy of both partners.

Two methods of assessing the mortality factors affecting the larvae and pupae of Cameraria ohridella in the leaves of Aesculus hippocastanum in Switzerland and Bulgaria.

PubMed

Girardoz, S; Tomov, R; Eschen, R; Quicke, D L J; Kenis, M

2007-10-01

The horse-chestnut leaf miner, Cameraria ohridella, is an invasive alien species defoliating horse-chestnut, a popular ornamental tree in Europe. This paper presents quantitative data on mortality factors affecting larvae and pupae of the leaf miner in Switzerland and Bulgaria, both in urban and forest environments. Two sampling methods were used and compared: a cohort method, consisting of the surveying of pre-selected mines throughout their development, and a grab sampling method, consisting of single sets of leaves collected and dissected at regular intervals. The total mortality per generation varied between 14 and 99%. Mortality was caused by a variety of factors, including parasitism, host feeding, predation by birds and arthropods, plant defence reaction, leaf senescence, intra-specific competition and inter-specific competition with a fungal disease. Significant interactions were found between mortality factors and sampling methods, countries, environments and generation. No mortality factor was dominant throughout the sites, generations and methods tested. Plant defence reactions constituted the main mortality factor for the first two larval stages, whereas predation by birds and arthropods and parasitism were more important in older larvae and pupae. Mortality caused by leaf senescence was often the dominant mortality factor in the last annual generation. The cohort method detected higher mortality rates than the grab sampling method. In particular, mortality by plant defence reaction and leaf senescence were better assessed using the cohort method, which is, therefore, recommended for life table studies on leaf miners.

Cyclone tolerance in new world arecaceae: biogeographic variation and abiotic natural selection.

PubMed

Griffith, M Patrick; Noblick, Larry R; Dowe, John L; Husby, Chad E; Calonje, Michael A

2008-10-01

Consistent abiotic factors can affect directional selection; cyclones are abiotic phenomena with near-discrete geographic limits. The current study investigates selective pressure of cyclones on plants at the species level, testing for possible natural selection. New World Arecaceae (palms) are used as a model system, as plants with monopodial, unbranched arborescent form are most directly affected by the selective pressure of wind load. Living specimens of known provenance grown at a common site were affected by the same cyclone. Data on percentage mortality were compiled and analysed in biogeographic and phylogenetic contexts. Palms of cyclone-prone provenance exhibited a much lower (one order of magnitude) range in cyclone tolerance, and significantly lower (P < 0.001) mean percentage mortality than collections from cyclone-free areas. Palms of cyclone-free provenance had much greater variation in tolerance, and significantly greater mean percentage mortality. A test for serial independence recovered no significant phylogenetic autocorrelation of percentage mortality. Variation in cyclone tolerance in New World Arecaceae correlates with biogeography, and is not confounded with phylogeny. These results suggest natural selection of cyclone tolerance in cyclone-prone areas.

A regional-scale survey and analysis of forest growth and mortality as affected by site and stand factors and acidic deposition

Treesearch

Robert T. Brooks

1994-01-01

Regression analyses were used to identify factors most closely related to species growth and mortality on continuous forest survey plots in Pennsylvania. In 1985, 200 plots with two prior measurements (in the 1960s and 1970s) were selected and measured for a third time to determine periodic forest growth and mortality rates. Growth and mortality were analyzed for...

Predator protection versus rapid growth in a montane leaf beetle.

PubMed

Smiley, John T; Rank, Nathan E

1986-08-01

Adults and larvae of Chrysomela aenicollis (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feed on foliage of Salix species (Salicaceae) between 2,400-3,400 m above sea level in the eastcentral Sierra Nevada mountains of California. We predicted that (1) cold climatic conditions would be a more frequent source of mortality at higher elevations, (2) mildweather agents of mortality such as predation should be more severe at lower elevations, and (3) populations of C. aenicollis would be adapted to the local selective regime at each elevation. We tested these predictions in 1984 and 1985 by transferring over 6,000 eggs and larvae within and between two sites at 2,810 and 3,240 m elevation above sea level. During mild summer weather at both sites, survivorship on Salix branches isolated by a barrier of sticky resin was similar to that on control branches, and we concluded that aerial predators were the primary cause of mortality. At least one major predator, a solitary wasp (Symmorphus sp., Hymenoptera: Eumenidae), was specifically associated with C. aenicollis at the lower site, where beetle mortality was highest. At both sites in 1984 and 1985, larvae originating from the lower site remained in aggregations and survived more frequently than larvae from the upper site, suggesting that they are better defended against predators. During a storm with cold weather late in the 1984 season, larvae and pupae died more frequently at the upper site, and there was a marginally significant trend (P<0.1) for the lower site individuals to die more frequently than upper site larvae during the cold storm. Upper site larvae grew approximately 10% faster than lower site larvae at the lower site and under controlled conditions in the laboratory. These findings indicate that upper and lower site populations were adapted to the local selective regime, which suggest how populations of montane phytopagous insects may adapt to changing elevations.

Hypoxia Inducible Factor-2 Alpha and Prolinhydroxylase 2 Polymorphisms in Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS).

PubMed

Dötsch, Annika; Eisele, Lewin; Rabeling, Miriam; Rump, Katharina; Walstein, Kai; Bick, Alexandra; Cox, Linda; Engler, Andrea; Bachmann, Hagen S; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Adamzik, Michael; Peters, Jürgen; Schäfer, Simon T

2017-06-14

Hypoxia-inducible-factor-2α (HIF-2α) and HIF-2 degrading prolyl-hydroxylases (PHD) are key regulators of adaptive hypoxic responses i.e., in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Specifically, functionally active genetic variants of HIF-2α (single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) [ch2:46441523(hg18)]) and PHD2 (C/T; SNP rs516651 and T/C; SNP rs480902) are associated with improved adaptation to hypoxia i.e., in high-altitude residents. However, little is known about these SNPs' prevalence in Caucasians and impact on ARDS-outcome. Thus, we tested the hypotheses that in Caucasian ARDS patients SNPs in HIF-2α or PHD2 genes are (1) common, and (2) independent risk factors for 30-day mortality. After ethics-committee approval, 272 ARDS patients were prospectively included, genotyped for PHD2 (Taqman SNP Genotyping Assay) and HIF-2α -polymorphism (restriction digest + agarose-gel visualization), and genotype dependent 30-day mortality was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier-plots and multivariate Cox-regression analyses. Frequencies were 99.62% for homozygous HIF-2α CC-carriers (CG: 0.38%; GG: 0%), 2.3% for homozygous PHD2 SNP rs516651 TT-carriers (CT: 18.9%; CC: 78.8%), and 3.7% for homozygous PHD2 SNP rs480902 TT-carriers (CT: 43.9%; CC: 52.4%). PHD2 rs516651 TT-genotype in ARDS was independently associated with a 3.34 times greater mortality risk (OR 3.34, CI 1.09-10.22; p = 0.034) within 30-days, whereas the other SNPs had no significant impact ( p = ns). The homozygous HIF-2α GG-genotype was not present in our Caucasian ARDS cohort; however PHD2 SNPs exist in Caucasians, and PHD2 rs516651 TT-genotype was associated with an increased 30-day mortality suggesting a relevance for adaptive responses in ARDS.

Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network

PubMed Central

Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

2017-01-01

The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists. PMID:28186146

Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

PubMed

Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

2017-02-10

The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

2017-02-01

The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

Two-year survival of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease subjects requiring invasive mechanical ventilation and the factors affecting survival.

PubMed

Asker, Selvi; Ozbay, Bulent; Ekin, Selami; Yildiz, Hanifi; Sertogullarindan, Bunyamin

2016-05-01

To investigate two-year survival rates and the factors affecting survival in patients of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease requiring invasive mechanical ventilation. The retrospective study was conducted at Yuzuncuy?l University, Van, Turkey, and comprised record of in-patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who required invasive mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit of the Pulmonary Diseases Department between January 2007 and December 2010. Correlation between survival and parameters such as age, gender, duration of illness, history of smoking, arterial blood gas values, pulmonary artery pressure, left ventricular ejection fraction, body mass index and laboratory findings were investigated. SPSS 19 was used for statistical analysis. Of the 69 severe COPD subjects available, 20 (29%) were excluded as they did not meet the inclusion criteria. Overall in-hospital mortality rate was 42% (n:29). Of the remaining 20 (29%) who comprised the study group, 14(70%) were men and 6(30%) were women. The mortality rates at the end of 3rd, 6th, 12th and 24th months were 61%, 76%, 84% and 85.5% respectively. There was no correlation between gender and survival in time point (p>0.05). The only factor that affected the rate of mortality at the end of the 3rd month was age (p<0.05). Mortality was high in subjects with advanced ages (p<0.05). Duration of illness affected the survival at the end of the six month (p<0.05). Survival rates were high in subjects with longer illness durations (p<0.05). Haematocrit level was the only factor that affected mortality rates at the end of 12th and 24th months (p<0.05). Subjects with higher haematocrit levels had higher survival rates (p<0.05). Age, duration of illness and haematocrit levels were the most important factors that affected survival in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients requiring mechanical ventilation.

The effects of oil spills on marine fish: Implications of spatial variation in natural mortality.

PubMed

Langangen, Ø; Olsen, E; Stige, L C; Ohlberger, J; Yaragina, N A; Vikebø, F B; Bogstad, B; Stenseth, N C; Hjermann, D Ø

2017-06-15

The effects of oil spills on marine biological systems are of great concern, especially in regions with high biological production of harvested resources such as in the Northeastern Atlantic. The scientific studies of the impact of oil spills on fish stocks tend to ignore that spatial patterns of natural mortality may influence the magnitude of the impact over time. Here, we first illustrate how spatial variation in natural mortality may affect the population impact by considering a thought experiment. Second, we consider an empirically based example of Northeast Arctic cod to extend the concept to a realistic setting. Finally, we present a scenario-based investigation of how the degree of spatial variation in natural mortality affects the impact over a gradient of oil spill sizes. Including the effects of spatial variations in natural mortality tends to widen the impact distribution, hence increasing the probability of both high and low impact events. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Extra-Pair Mating and Evolution of Cooperative Neighbourhoods

PubMed Central

Eliassen, Sigrunn; Jørgensen, Christian

2014-01-01

A striking but unexplained pattern in biology is the promiscuous mating behaviour in socially monogamous species. Although females commonly solicit extra-pair copulations, the adaptive reason has remained elusive. We use evolutionary modelling of breeding ecology to show that females benefit because extra-pair paternity incentivizes males to shift focus from a single brood towards the entire neighbourhood, as they are likely to have offspring there. Male-male cooperation towards public goods and dear enemy effects of reduced territorial aggression evolve from selfish interests, and lead to safer and more productive neighbourhoods. The mechanism provides adaptive explanations for the common empirical observations that females engage in extra-pair copulations, that neighbours dominate as extra-pair sires, and that extra-pair mating correlates with predation mortality and breeding density. The models predict cooperative behaviours at breeding sites where males cooperate more towards public goods than females. Where maternity certainty makes females care for offspring at home, paternity uncertainty and a potential for offspring in several broods make males invest in communal benefits and public goods. The models further predict that benefits of extra-pair mating affect whole nests or neighbourhoods, and that cuckolding males are often cuckolded themselves. Derived from ecological mechanisms, these new perspectives point towards the evolution of sociality in birds, with relevance also for mammals and primates including humans. PMID:24987839

Severe vision and hearing impairment and successful aging: a multidimensional view.

PubMed

Wahl, Hans-Werner; Heyl, Vera; Drapaniotis, Philipp M; Hörmann, Karl; Jonas, Jost B; Plinkert, Peter K; Rohrschneider, Klaus

2013-12-01

Previous research on psychosocial adaptation of sensory-impaired older adults has focused mainly on only one sensory modality and on a limited number of successful aging outcomes. We considered a broad range of successful aging indicators and compared older adults with vision impairment, hearing impairment, and dual sensory impairments and without sensory impairment. Data came from samples of severely visually impaired (VI; N = 121), severely hearing-impaired (HI; N = 116), dual sensory-impaired (DI; N = 43), and sensory-unimpaired older adults (UI; N = 150). Participants underwent a wide-ranging assessment, covering everyday competence, cognitive functioning, social resources, self-regulation strategies, cognitive and affective well-being, and 4-year survival status (except the DI group). The most pronounced difference among groups was in the area of everyday competence (lowest in VI and DI). Multigroup comparisons in latent space revealed both similar and differing relationship strengths among health, everyday competence, social resources, self-regulation, and overall well-being, depending on sensory status. After 4 years, mortality in VI (29%) and HI (30%) was significantly higher than in UI (20%) at the bivariate level, but not after controlling for confounders in a multivariate analysis. A multidimensional approach to the understanding of sensory impairment and psychosocial adaptation in old age reveals a complex picture of loss and maintenance.

Feed intake limitation strategies for the growing rabbit: effect on feeding behaviour, welfare, performance, digestive physiology and health: a review.

PubMed

Gidenne, T; Combes, S; Fortun-Lamothe, L

2012-09-01

This review aims to present the different effects produced by a post-weaning intake limitation strategy on the growing rabbit, now largely used by French professional rabbit breeders. Although a quantitative feed restriction leads to slower growth, feed conversion (FC) is improved, particularly when the rabbits are again fed freely, as compensatory growth occurs. This better FC or the healthy rabbit is because of better digestion resulting from slower passage through the intestine, whereas the digestive physiology is slightly modified (morphometry of the intestinal mucosa, fermentation pattern, microbiota). Meat quality and carcass characteristics are not greatly affected by feed restriction, except for a lower dressing-out percentage. One of the main advantages of limiting post-weaning intake of the rabbit is to reduce the mortality and morbidity rate due to digestive disorders (particularly epizootic rabbit enteropathy syndrome). The consequences for animal welfare are debatable, as feed restriction probably leads to hunger, but it reduces the incidence of digestive troubles after weaning. However, the growing rabbit adapts very well to an intake limitation strategy, without any aggressive behaviour for congener. In conclusion, restriction strategies could improve profitability of rabbit breeding, but they should be adapted to any specific breeding situation, according to the national market, feed prices, etc.

Female circumcision and child mortality in urban Somalia.

PubMed

Mohamud, O A

1991-01-01

In Somalia, a demographer analyzed urban data obtained from the Family Health Survey to examine the effect female circumcision has on child mortality and the mechanism of that effect. Girls undergo female circumcision between 5-12 years old in Somalia. Since sunni circumcision (removal of the clitoral prepuce and tip of the clitoris) and clitoridectomy (removal of the entire clitoris) did not affect child mortality, he used them as the reference group. Infibulation (entire removal of the clitoris and of the labia minora and majora with the remains of the labia majora being sewn together allowing only a small opening for passage of urine) did affect child mortality. Female children who underwent infibulation and whose mothers most likely also underwent infibulation experienced higher mortality (13-72%) than those from other circumcised mothers. Female mortality exceeded male mortality indicating possible son preference. Mothers with clitoridectomy or infibulation had significantly higher infant mortality than those with sunni circumcision with the strongest effects during the neonatal period (95% and 42% higher mortality, respectively; p=.01). The effect of female circumcision on child mortality decreased with increased child's age. This higher than expected mortality among women with clitoridectomy may have been because women with infibulation had more stillbirths which were not counted as births. The exposed vagina of clitoridectomized women is more likely to be infected resulting in high risk of stillbirths and premature births than the closed vagina of infibulated women. The researcher suggested that the policies promoting education and consciousness raising may eventually eradicate female circumcision. This longterm campaign should use mass media, senior women of high status, and respected religious leaders. Legislation prohibiting this practice would only drive it underground under unsanitary conditions. Demographers should no longer ignore female circumcision's effect on mortality and other demographic variables.

Cancer and life-history traits: lessons from host-parasite interactions.

PubMed

Ujvari, Beata; Beckmann, Christa; Biro, Peter A; Arnal, Audrey; Tasiemski, Aurelie; Massol, Francois; Salzet, Michel; Mery, Frederic; Boidin-Wichlacz, Celine; Misse, Dorothee; Renaud, Francois; Vittecoq, Marion; Tissot, Tazzio; Roche, Benjamin; Poulin, Robert; Thomas, Frederic

2016-04-01

Despite important differences between infectious diseases and cancers, tumour development (neoplasia) can nonetheless be closely compared to infectious disease because of the similarity of their effects on the body. On this basis, we predict that many of the life-history (LH) responses observed in the context of host-parasite interactions should also be relevant in the context of cancer. Parasites are thought to affect LH traits of their hosts because of strong selective pressures like direct and indirect mortality effects favouring, for example, early maturation and reproduction. Cancer can similarly also affect LH traits by imposing direct costs and/or indirectly by triggering plastic adjustments and evolutionary responses. Here, we discuss how and why a LH focus is a potentially productive but under-exploited research direction for cancer research, by focusing our attention on similarities between infectious disease and cancer with respect to their effects on LH traits and their evolution. We raise the possibility that LH adjustments can occur in response to cancer via maternal/paternal effects and that these changes can be heritable to (adaptively) modify the LH traits of their offspring. We conclude that LH adjustments can potentially influence the transgenerational persistence of inherited oncogenic mutations in populations.

Zooplankton Responses to Low-Oxygen Condition upon a Shallow Oxygen Minimum Zone in the Upwelling Region off Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, P.; Escribano, R.

2015-12-01

A shallow oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) is a critical component in the coastal upwelling ecosystem off Chile. This OMZ causes oxygen-deficient water entering the photic layer and affecting plankton communities having low tolerance to hypoxia. Variable, and usually species-dependent, responses of zooplankton to hypoxia condition can be found. Most dominant species avoid hypoxia by restricting their vertical distribution, while others can temporarily enter and even spent part of their life cycle within the OMZ. Whatever the case, low-oxygen conditions appear to affect virtually all vital rates of zooplankton, such as mortality, fecundity, development and growth and metabolism, and early developmental stages seem more sensitive, with significant consequences for population and community dynamics. For most study cases, these effects are negative at individual and population levels. Observations and predictions upon increasing upwelling intensity over the last 20-30 years indicate a gradual shoaling of the OMZ, and so that an expected enhancement of these negative effects of hypoxia on the zooplankton community. Unknown processes of adaptation and community-structure adjustments are expected to take place with uncertain consequences for the food web of this highly productive eastern boundary current ecosystem.

The balance of planting and mortality in a street tree population

Treesearch

Lara A. Roman; John J. Battles; Joe R. McBride

2013-01-01

Street trees have aesthetic, environmental, human health, and economic benefits in urban ecosystems. Street tree populations are constructed by cycles of planting, growth, death, removal and replacement. The goals of this study were to understand how tree mortality and planting rates affect net population growth, evaluate the shape of the mortality curve, and assess...

Rapid mortality of Populus tremuloides in southwestern Colorado, USA

Treesearch

James J. Worrall; Leanne Egeland; Thomas Eager; Roy A. Mask; Erik W. Johnson; Philip A. Kemp; Wayne D. Shepperd

2008-01-01

Concentrated patches of recent trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality covered 56,091 ha of Colorado forests in 2006. Mortality has progressed rapidly. Area affected increased 58% between 2005 and 2006 on the Mancos-Dolores Ranger District, San Juan National Forest, where it equaled nearly 10% of the aspen cover type. In four stands that were...

Design of the effect of adaptive servo-ventilation on survival and cardiovascular hospital admissions in patients with heart failure and sleep apnoea: the ADVENT-HF trial.

PubMed

Lyons, Owen D; Floras, John S; Logan, Alexander G; Beanlands, Robert; Cantolla, Joaquin Durán; Fitzpatrick, Michael; Fleetham, John; John Kimoff, R; Leung, Richard S T; Lorenzi Filho, Geraldo; Mayer, Pierre; Mielniczuk, Lisa; Morrison, Debra L; Ryan, Clodagh M; Series, Frederic; Tomlinson, George A; Woo, Anna; Arzt, Michael; Parthasarathy, Sairam; Redolfi, Stefania; Kasai, Takatoshi; Parati, Gianfranco; Delgado, Diego H; Bradley, T Douglas

2017-04-01

Both types of sleep-disordered breathing (SDB), obstructive and central sleep apnoea (OSA and CSA, respectively), are common in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). In such patients, SDB is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality but it remains uncertain whether treating SDB by adaptive servo-ventilation (ASV) in such patients reduces morbidity and mortality. ADVENT-HF is designed to assess the effects of treating SDB with ASV on morbidity and mortality in patients with HFrEF. ADVENT-HF is a multicentre, multinational, randomized, parallel-group, open-label trial with blinded assessment of endpoints of standard medical therapy for HFrEF alone vs. with the addition of ASV in patients with HFrEF and SDB. Patients with a history of HFrEF undergo echocardiography and polysomnography. Those with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45% and SDB (apnoea-hypopnoea index ≥15) are eligible. SDB is stratified into OSA with ≥50% of events obstructive or CSA with >50% of events central. Those with OSA must not have excessive daytime sleepiness (Epworth score of ≤10). Patients are then randomized to receive or not receive ASV. The primary outcome is the composite of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular hospital admissions, new-onset atrial fibrillation requiring anti-coagulation but not hospitalization, and delivery of an appropriate discharge from an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator not resulting in hospitalization during a maximum follow-up time of 5 years. The ADVENT-HF trial will help to determine whether treating SDB by ASV in patients with HFrEF improves morbidity and mortality. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2017 European Society of Cardiology.

Crossing the “Uncanny Valley”: adaptation to cartoon faces can influence perception of human faces

PubMed Central

Chen, Haiwen; Russell, Richard; Nakayama, Ken; Livingstone, Margaret

2013-01-01

Adaptation can shift what individuals identify to be a prototypical or attractive face. Past work suggests that low-level shape adaptation can affect high-level face processing but is position dependent. Adaptation to distorted images of faces can also affect face processing but only within sub-categories of faces, such as gender, age, and race/ethnicity. This study assesses whether there is a representation of face that is specific to faces (as opposed to all shapes) but general to all kinds of faces (as opposed to subcategories) by testing whether adaptation to one type of face can affect perception of another. Participants were shown cartoon videos containing faces with abnormally large eyes. Using animated videos allowed us to simulate naturalistic exposure and avoid positional shape adaptation. Results suggest that adaptation to cartoon faces with large eyes shifts preferences for human faces toward larger eyes, supporting the existence of general face representations. PMID:20465173

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. UK Medical Research Council.

Early life stress affects mortality rate more than social behavior, gene expression or oxidative damage in honey bee workers.

PubMed

Rueppell, Olav; Yousefi, Babak; Collazo, Juan; Smith, Daniel

2017-04-01

Early life stressors can affect aging and life expectancy in positive or negative ways. Individuals can adjust their behavior and molecular physiology based on early life experiences but relatively few studies have connected such mechanisms to demographic patterns in social organisms. Sociality buffers individuals from environmental influences and it is unclear how much early life stress affects later life history. Workers of the honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) were exposed to two stressors, Varroa parasitism and Paraquat exposure, early in life. Consequences were measured at the molecular, behavioral, and demographic level. While treatments did not significantly affect levels of oxidative damage, expression of select genes, and titers of the common deformed wing virus, most of these measures were affected by age. Some of the age effects, such as declining levels of deformed wing virus and oxidative damage, were opposite to our predictions but may be explained by demographic selection. Further analyses suggested some influences of worker behavior on mortality and indicated weak treatment effects on behavior. The latter effects were inconsistent among the two experiments. However, mortality rate was consistently reduced by Varroa mite stress during development. Thus, mortality was more responsive to early life stress than our other response variables. The lack of treatment effects on these measures may be due to the social organization of honey bees that buffers the individual from the impact of stressful developmental conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early Life Stress Affects Mortality Rate More than Social Behavior, Gene Expression or Oxidative Damage in Honey Bee Workers

PubMed Central

Rueppell, Olav; Yousefi, Babak; Collazo, Juan; Smith, Daniel

2017-01-01

Early life stressors can affect aging and life expectancy in positive or negative ways. Individuals can adjust their behavior and molecular physiology based on early life experiences but relatively few studies have connected such mechanisms to demographic patterns in social organisms. Sociality buffers individuals from environmental influences and it is unclear how much early life stress affects later life history. Workers of the honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) were exposed to two stressors, Varroa parasitism and paraquat exposure, early in life. Consequences were measured at the molecular, behavioral, and demographic level. While treatments did not significantly affect levels of oxidative damage, expression of select genes, and titers of the common deformed wing virus, most of these measures were affected by age. Some of the age effects, such as declining levels of deformed wing virus and oxidative damage, were opposite to our predictions but may be explained by demographic selection. Further analyses suggested some influences of worker behavior on mortality and indicated weak treatment effects on behavior. The latter effects were inconsistent among the two experiments. However, mortality rate was consistently reduced by Varroa mite stress during development. Thus, mortality was more responsive to early life stress than our other response variables. The lack of treatment effects on these measures may be due to the social organization of honey bees that buffers the individual from the impact of stressful developmental conditions. PMID:28122251

Nonlinear Impact of Temperature on Mortality in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, A. T.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is posing unprecedented challenges to human welfare, yet there is much uncertainty about the cost of its impact. Accurate quantification of the social cost of carbon is crucial for designing effective climate policies that reduce emissions and mitigate the adverse impact of global warming, and human health is an important component of the calculation. Despite a growing body of literature documenting the relationship between temperature and mortality in the U.S., similar results using nationwide data have not been clearly established in other countries. Using random monthly variations in temperature for over a decade, this paper finds a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between monthly mortality rate and daily temperature in France between 1998 and 2012. Extremely hot days are associated with significantly higher mortality rates: One additional day with a mean temperature above 30°C, relative to a day in the 12°C to 15°C range, leads to 10 extra all-age, all-gender monthly deaths per 100,000. The effect of cold temperatures is milder: An extremely cold day with an average temperature from -9 °C to -6 °C increases all-age, all-gender mortality rate by about 1.2 per 100,000 each month. There is also notable heterogeneity in the observed nonlinear relationship across age groups and gender, in which males and the elderly are generally more susceptible to extreme temperatures than females and the young. This highlights that children and youth may be well protected through adaptive behaviors, such as spending more time indoors in temperature-controlled rooms and staying hydrated. Compared to studies done in the U.S., extremely hot days >30°C leads to considerably more deaths in France. Preliminary evidence suggests that there has been very limited adaptation despite two prominent heat waves in 2003 and 2006, although further analysis of electricity consumption and air conditioning usage is needed to ascertain the extent to which protective behavior mitigates mortality risks from temperature extremes.

Cross-Sectional Analysis on Racial and Economic Disparities Affecting Mortality in Preterm Infants with Posthemorrhagic Hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Jin, Diana L; Christian, Eisha A; Attenello, Frank; Melamed, Edward; Cen, Steven; Krieger, Mark D; McComb, J Gordon; Mack, William J

2016-04-01

Despite major advances in medicine, racial and socioeconomic disparities continue to affect health care outcomes. Higher overall infant mortality has been reported for black neonates compared with their Hispanic and white counterparts. The underlying basis for these differences remains unclear. A potential influencing factor is the management of premature neurologic complications in this disadvantaged group. This study examines racial and socioeconomic disparities on mortality in preterm infants with posthemorrhagic hydrocephalus (PHH). Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample and Kids Inpatient Database were combined from 2000 to 2010. Discharges with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes for preterm births with intraventricular hemorrhage and PHH were included. Relative risk (RR) ratios for mortality, complications, length of stay, and hospital costs were obtained with multivariate analysis after controlling for patient-level, hospital-level, and admission-level factors. When controlling for patient and hospital factors, black neonates had increased mortality compared with whites and Hispanics (RR = 1.47; P < 0.01). This association existed despite lower rates of congenital cardiac defects (RR = 0.84; P < 0.01), gastrointestinal complications (RR = 0.84; P < 0.01), and general complications of prematurity (RR = 0.95; P = 0.04) in the black cohort. Preterm infants insured by Medicaid had increased mortality compared with those with private insurance (RR = 1.2; P = 0.04) after adjusting for patient and hospital factors. Among preterm infants with intraventricular hemorrhage and resultant PHH, black infants and those insured by Medicaid have significantly increased mortality but these 2 effects are independent. Further studies are needed to fully understand the factors affecting these racial and socioeconomic disparities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Human Impact of Earthquakes: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Packer, Catherine; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Introduction. Population growth and increasing urbanization in earthquake-prone areas suggest that earthquake impacts on human populations will increase in the coming decades. Recent large earthquakes affecting large populations in Japan, Haiti, Chile and New Zealand are evidence of this trend and also illustrate significant variations in outcomes such damage and mortality levels. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of earthquakes on human populations in terms of mortality, injury and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of earthquakes were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to mid 2009 of earthquake events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications, ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between earthquake mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. From 1980 through 2009, there were a total of 372,634 deaths (range 314,634-412,599), 995,219 injuries (range: 845,345-1,145,093), and more than 61 million people affected by earthquakes, and mortality was greatest in Asia. Inconsistent reporting across data sources suggests that the numbers injured and affected are likely underestimates. Findings from a systematic review of the literature indicate that the primary cause of earthquake-related death was trauma due to building collapse and, the very young and the elderly were at increased mortality risk, while gender was not consistently associated with mortality risk. Conclusions. Strategies to mitigate the impact of future earthquakes should include improvements to the built environment and a focus on populations most vulnerable to mortality and injury. PMID:23857161

Success factors for reducing maternal and child mortality

PubMed Central

Schweitzer, Julian; Bishai, David; Chowdhury, Sadia; Caramani, Daniele; Frost, Laura; Cortez, Rafael; Daelmans, Bernadette; de Francisco, Andres; Adam, Taghreed; Cohen, Robert; Alfonso, Y Natalia; Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer; Saadat, Seemeen; Pratt, Beth Anne; Eugster, Beatrice; Bandali, Sarah; Venkatachalam, Pritha; Hinton, Rachael; Murray, John; Arscott-Mills, Sharon; Axelson, Henrik; Maliqi, Blerta; Sarker, Intissar; Lakshminarayanan, Rama; Jacobs, Troy; Jacks, Susan; Mason, Elizabeth; Ghaffar, Abdul; Mays, Nicholas; Presern, Carole; Bustreo, Flavia

2014-01-01

Abstract Reducing maternal and child mortality is a priority in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and will likely remain so after 2015. Evidence exists on the investments, interventions and enabling policies required. Less is understood about why some countries achieve faster progress than other comparable countries. The Success Factors for Women’s and Children’s Health studies sought to address this knowledge gap using statistical and econometric analyses of data from 144 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) over 20 years; Boolean, qualitative comparative analysis; a literature review; and country-specific reviews in 10 fast-track countries for MDGs 4 and 5a. There is no standard formula – fast-track countries deploy tailored strategies and adapt quickly to change. However, fast-track countries share some effective approaches in addressing three main areas to reduce maternal and child mortality. First, these countries engage multiple sectors to address crucial health determinants. Around half the reduction in child mortality in LMICs since 1990 is the result of health sector investments, the other half is attributed to investments made in sectors outside health. Second, these countries use strategies to mobilize partners across society, using timely, robust evidence for decision-making and accountability and a triple planning approach to consider immediate needs, long-term vision and adaptation to change. Third, the countries establish guiding principles that orient progress, align stakeholder action and achieve results over time. This evidence synthesis contributes to global learning on accelerating improvements in women’s and children’s health towards 2015 and beyond. PMID:25110379

Desiccation and Mortality Dynamics in Seedlings of Different European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Populations under Extreme Drought Conditions

PubMed Central

Bolte, Andreas; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Cocozza, Claudia; Tognetti, Roberto; de Miguel, Marina; Pšidová, Eva; Ditmarová, Ĺubica; Dinca, Lucian; Delzon, Sylvain; Cochard, Hervè; Ræbild, Anders; de Luis, Martin; Cvjetkovic, Branislav; Heiri, Caroline; Müller, Jürgen

2016-01-01

European beech (Fagus sylvatica L., hereafter beech), one of the major native tree species in Europe, is known to be drought sensitive. Thus, the identification of critical thresholds of drought impact intensity and duration are of high interest for assessing the adaptive potential of European beech to climate change in its native range. In a common garden experiment with one-year-old seedlings originating from central and marginal origins in six European countries (Denmark, Germany, France, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Spain), we applied extreme drought stress and observed desiccation and mortality processes among the different populations and related them to plant water status (predawn water potential, ΨPD) and soil hydraulic traits. For the lethal drought assessment, we used a critical threshold of soil water availability that is reached when 50% mortality in seedling populations occurs (LD50SWA). We found significant population differences in LD50SWA (10.5–17.8%), and mortality dynamics that suggest a genetic difference in drought resistance between populations. The LD50SWA values correlate significantly with the mean growing season precipitation at population origins, but not with the geographic margins of beech range. Thus, beech range marginality may be more due to climatic conditions than to geographic range. The outcome of this study suggests the genetic variation has a major influence on the varying adaptive potential of the investigated populations. PMID:27379105

Success factors for reducing maternal and child mortality.

PubMed

Kuruvilla, Shyama; Schweitzer, Julian; Bishai, David; Chowdhury, Sadia; Caramani, Daniele; Frost, Laura; Cortez, Rafael; Daelmans, Bernadette; de Francisco, Andres; Adam, Taghreed; Cohen, Robert; Alfonso, Y Natalia; Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer; Saadat, Seemeen; Pratt, Beth Anne; Eugster, Beatrice; Bandali, Sarah; Venkatachalam, Pritha; Hinton, Rachael; Murray, John; Arscott-Mills, Sharon; Axelson, Henrik; Maliqi, Blerta; Sarker, Intissar; Lakshminarayanan, Rama; Jacobs, Troy; Jack, Susan; Jacks, Susan; Mason, Elizabeth; Ghaffar, Abdul; Mays, Nicholas; Presern, Carole; Bustreo, Flavia

2014-07-01

Reducing maternal and child mortality is a priority in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and will likely remain so after 2015. Evidence exists on the investments, interventions and enabling policies required. Less is understood about why some countries achieve faster progress than other comparable countries. The Success Factors for Women's and Children's Health studies sought to address this knowledge gap using statistical and econometric analyses of data from 144 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) over 20 years; Boolean, qualitative comparative analysis; a literature review; and country-specific reviews in 10 fast-track countries for MDGs 4 and 5a. There is no standard formula--fast-track countries deploy tailored strategies and adapt quickly to change. However, fast-track countries share some effective approaches in addressing three main areas to reduce maternal and child mortality. First, these countries engage multiple sectors to address crucial health determinants. Around half the reduction in child mortality in LMICs since 1990 is the result of health sector investments, the other half is attributed to investments made in sectors outside health. Second, these countries use strategies to mobilize partners across society, using timely, robust evidence for decision-making and accountability and a triple planning approach to consider immediate needs, long-term vision and adaptation to change. Third, the countries establish guiding principles that orient progress, align stakeholder action and achieve results over time. This evidence synthesis contributes to global learning on accelerating improvements in women's and children's health towards 2015 and beyond.

Factors affecting mortality in elderly patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer.

PubMed

Kayılıoglu, Selami Ilgaz; Göktug, Ufuk Utku; Dinc, Tolga; Sozen, Isa; Yavuz, Zeynep; Coskun, Faruk

2018-03-05

The aim of this study was to determine factors affecting overall mortality in patients over 60 years of age who underwent surgery for gastric cancer in our clinic. Data on histopathological diagnosis (tumor size, lymph node status, and number), pathological stage, serum albumin level, tumor markers, complete blood count, and demographic information of 109 patients over 60 years of age who had surgery for gastric cancer between January 2011 and July 2016 were obtained retrospectively from the patient files. In addition, the survival status of all patients were examined and recorded. Metastatic lymph node ratio (MLR), red cell distribution width platelet ratio (RPR), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), plateletlymphocyte ratio (PLR), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) were calculated. On univariate analysis of independent parameters, pathological LN number (p = 0.001), MLR (p <0.001), T3 (p = 0.001) or T4 (p = 0,006) tumor stage according to TNM system, the presence of metastasis (p = 0.063), and male gender (p = 0.066) were found to affect overall mortality (OM). On multivariable Cox regression analysis of these results, MLR (p = 0.005) and T stage (p = 0.006) was determined to be a statistically significant and independent prognostic value. In patients over 60 years of age who underwent surgery for gastric cancer, the factors affecting mortality were determined to be the presence of metastases, number of pathological lymph nodes, and male gender. Metastatic lymph node ratio and T1&T2 stage were determined to be independent prognostic factors. Elderly, Gastric cancer, Mortality, Prognostic factor.

Affect-Based Adaptation of an Applied Video Game for Educational Purposes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bontchev, Boyan; Vassileva, Dessislava

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to clarify how affect-based adaptation can improve implicit recognition of playing style of individuals during game sessions. This study presents the "Rush for Gold" game using dynamic difficulty adjustment of tasks based on both player performance and affectation inferred through electrodermal activity and…

Residual toxicity after biodegradation: interactions among benzene, toluene, and chloroform.

PubMed

da Silva Nunes-Halldorson, Vânia; Steiner, Robert L; Smith, Geoffrey B

2004-02-01

A microbial enrichment originating from a pristine aquifer was found to aerobically biodegrade benzene and toluene, but not chloroform. This enrichment culture was used to study changes in pollutant toxicity as affected by biodegradative activity. Two assays for toxicity were used: (1) a 48-h acute toxicity test using the freshwater invertebrate Ceriodaphnia dubia and (2) microbial biodegradation activity as affected by the presence of mixed pollutants. At 20-ppm concentrations, toluene was significantly more toxic (99% mortality) to C. dubia than benzene (48% mortality) or chloroform (40% mortality). Also at 20-ppm concentrations, but before biodegradation, toluene was significantly more toxic (88% mortality) to C. dubia than benzene (33% mortality). After biodegradation of 98% of toluene and benzene, significant residual toxicity still remained in the bacterial supernatant: toluene-degraded supernatant caused 33% mortality in C. dubia and benzene-degraded supernatant caused 24% mortality. In the second toxicity assay, examining the effect of mixed pollutants on biodegradation activity, the presence of benzene slowed the biodegradation of toluene, but chloroform had no effect on either benzene or toluene biodegradation. Results indicate that significant toxicity remain after biodegradation and that halogenated aliphatic hydrocarbons may have little or no effect on aromatic hydrocarbon biodegradation at sites impacted by mixed pollutants.

Stroke presentation and outcome in developing countries: a prospective study in the Gambia.

PubMed

Garbusinski, Johanne M; van der Sande, Marianne A B; Bartholome, Emmanuel J; Dramaix, Michèle; Gaye, Alieu; Coleman, Rosalind; Nyan, Ousman A; Walker, Richard W; McAdam, Keith P W J; Walraven, Gys E

2005-07-01

Despite increasing burden of stroke in Africa, prospective descriptive data are rare. Our objective was to describe, in The Gambia, the clinical outcome of stroke patients admitted to the Royal Victoria Teaching Hospital in the capital Banjul, to assess mortality and morbidity, and propose preventive and therapeutic measures. Prospective data were collected on consecutive patients older than 15 years old admitted between February 2000 and February 2001 with the diagnosis of nonsubarachnoid stroke. Risk factors, clinical characteristics, and social consequences were assessed using a modified National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (mNIHSS), the Barthel Activity in Daily Living scale, the Siriraj score for subtypes, and the Bamford criteria for location/extension. Patients were followed-up at home up to 1 year after discharge. Ninety-one percent (148/162) of eligible patients were enrolled and followed-up. Hypertension and smoking were the most prevalent risk factors. Severity was high at admission, especially in women, and was strongly correlated to the outcome. mNIHSS and consciousness level on admission were strong predictors of the mortality risk. Swallowing difficulties at admission, fever, lung infection, and no aspirin treatment were, independently, risk factors for a lethal outcome susceptible to being addressed by treatment. Mortality was 41% in-hospital and 62% after 1 year. In survivors, autonomy levels improved over time. Drug compliance was poor. At home, family members provided care. Long-term socioeconomic and cultural activities were affected in most patients. Case-fatality was high compared with Western cohorts. Preventive measures can be developed. Rational treatment, in the absence of head imaging for initial assessment, requires adapted protocols. Providers should be trained, both at hospital and community levels.

The future of death in America

PubMed Central

King, Gary; Soneji, Samir

2013-01-01

Population mortality forecasts are widely used for allocating public health expenditures, setting research priorities, and evaluating the viability of public and private pensions, and health care financing systems. In part because existing methods forecast less accurately when based on more information, most forecasts are still based on simple linear extrapolations that ignore known biological risk factors and other prior information. We adapt a Bayesian hierarchical forecasting model capable of including more known health and demographic information than has previously been possible. This leads to the first age- and sex-specific forecasts of American mortality that simultaneously incorporate, in a formal statistical model, the effects of the recent rapid increase in obesity, the steady decline in tobacco consumption, and the well known patterns of smooth mortality age profiles and time trends. Formally including new information in forecasts can matter a great deal. For example, we estimate an increase in male life expectancy at birth from 76.2 years in 2010 to 79.9 years in 2030, which is 1.8 years greater than the U.S. Social Security Administration projection and 1.5 years more than U.S. Census projection. For females, we estimate more modest gains in life expectancy at birth over the next twenty years from 80.5 years to 81.9 years, which is virtually identical to the Social Security Administration projection and 2.0 years less than U.S. Census projections. We show that these patterns are also likely to greatly affect the aging American population structure. We offer an easy-to-use approach so that researchers can include other sources of information and potentially improve on our forecasts too. PMID:24696636

Assessment of thermal stress adaptation by monitoring Hsp70 and MnSOD in the freshwater gastropod, Bellamya bengalensis (Lamark 1882).

PubMed

Dutta, Sangita Maiti; Mustafi, Soumyajit Banerjee; Raha, Sanghamitra; Chakraborty, Susanta Kumar

2014-12-01

Expression of the stress biomarkers 70-kDa heat shock proteins (Hsp70) and manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) was measured as the molecular basis of adaptive response against increased experimental temperatures (32-40 °C for a span of 24-72 h) on the fresh water molluscan species, Bellamya bengalensis (Lamark 1882). The experimental snail specimens were collected during summer and winter seasons from two contrasting wetlands: an ecorestored (free from human interference) site (SI) and other experiencing anthropogenic stresses (SII). The mortality rate of the B. bengalensis and the immunoblotting of MnSOD and Hsp70 of their digestive glands were performed at regular intervals during the period of heat stress. The SI provided a lower stress environment based on physicochemical parameters such as pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and alkalinity for the survival of test species, although both sites experienced mortality due to thermal stresses. The parity in protein expressions displayed a uniform mode of adaptive impact to temperature elevations in both field and laboratory exposure. The Hsp70 expression was minimal at lower thermal stress, but increased with a rise in temperature. It is very likely that higher Hsp70 levels are not directly related to survival or adaptation. In contrast, MnSOD levels appeared to be an indicator of adaptive responses vis-a-vis survival of the animals. So, the expression levels of a universal free radical scavenger like MnSOD are recognized as a potential biomarker in a bioindicator species like Bellamya.

Potential for Low-Pathogenic Avian H7 Influenza A Viruses To Replicate and Cause Disease in a Mammalian Model

PubMed Central

Zanin, Mark; Koçer, Zeynep A.; Poulson, Rebecca L.; Gabbard, Jon D.; Howerth, Elizabeth W.; Jones, Cheryl A.; Friedman, Kimberly; Seiler, Jon; Danner, Angela; Kercher, Lisa; McBride, Ryan; Paulson, James C.; Wentworth, David E.; Krauss, Scott; Tompkins, Stephen M.; Stallknecht, David E.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT H7 subtype influenza A viruses are widely distributed and have been responsible for human infections and numerous outbreaks in poultry with significant impact. Despite this, the disease-causing potential of the precursor low-pathogenic (LP) H7 viruses from the wild bird reservoir has not been investigated. Our objective was to assess the disease-causing potential of 30 LP H7 viruses isolated from wild avian species in the United States and Canada using the DBA/2J mouse model. Without prior mammalian adaptation, the majority of viruses, 27 (90%), caused mortality in mice. Of these, 17 (56.7%) caused 100% mortality and 24 were of pathogenicity similar to that of A/Anhui/1/2013 (H7N9), which is highly pathogenic in mice. Viruses of duck origin were more pathogenic than those of shorebird origin, as 13 of 18 (72.2%) duck origin viruses caused 100% mortality while 4 of 12 (33.3%) shorebird origin viruses caused 100% mortality, despite there being no difference in mean lung viral titers between the groups. Replication beyond the respiratory tract was also evident, particularly in the heart and brain. Of the 16 viruses studied for fecal shedding, 11 were detected in fecal samples. These viruses exhibited a strong preference for avian-type α2,3-linked sialic acids; however, binding to mammalian-type α2,6-linked sialic acids was also detected. These findings indicate that LP avian H7 influenza A viruses are able to infect and cause disease in mammals without prior adaptation and therefore pose a potential public health risk. IMPORTANCE Low-pathogenic (LP) avian H7 influenza A viruses are widely distributed in the avian reservoir and are the precursors of numerous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in commercial poultry farms. However, unlike highly pathogenic H7 viruses, the disease-causing potential of LP H7 viruses from the wild bird reservoir has not been investigated. To address this, we studied 30 LP avian H7 viruses isolated from wild avian species in the United States and Canada using the DBA/2J mouse model. Surprisingly, the majority of these viruses, 90%, caused mortality in mice without prior mammalian adaptation, and 56.7% caused 100% mortality. There was also evidence of spread beyond the respiratory tract and fecal shedding. Therefore, the disease-causing potential of LP avian H7 influenza A viruses in mammals may be underestimated, and these viruses therefore pose a potential public health risk. PMID:27852855

Self-conscious affects: their adaptive Functions and relationship to depressive mood.

PubMed

Uji, Masayo; Kitamura, Toshinori; Nagata, Toshiaki

2011-01-01

This study used a structural equation model to examine the influence of resilience on the four self-conscious affects (guilt-proneness, shame-proneness, externalization, and detachment) assessed in the Test of Self-Conscious Affect-3 (TOSCA-3) and their impact on depressive mood. Our subject population consisted of 447 Japanese university students. The first analysis explored which TOSCA-3 affects help an individual adapt to stressful situations. The concept of "resilience" was used as an indicator to evaluate the adaptive functions. We based this on the assumption that an individual with higher resilience is able to use more adaptive affects. In the second analysis, taking the above relationship between resilience and the self-conscious affects into consideration, we examined how those variables as well as a negative life event are related to depressive mood. To assess the resilience level and depressive mood, we adopted the Resilience Scale (RS) and Self-rating Depressive Scale (SDS), respectively. The first analysis showed that the more resilient an individual was, the more prone they were to "detachment" and the less "shame" they experienced. The level of resilience did not have a significant effect on "guilt" or "externalization." In the second analysis we found that "resilience" had a direct inverse effect on depressive mood that was also mediated by "shame" and "detachment." We discuss how the particular self-conscious affects comprising each adaptive function are related to depressive mood.

Genomic adaptation of the ISA virus to Salmo salar codon usage

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The ISA virus (ISAV) is an Orthomyxovirus whose genome encodes for at least 10 proteins. Low protein identity and lack of genetic tools have hampered the study of the molecular mechanism behind its virulence. It has been shown that viral codon usage controls several processes such as translational efficiency, folding, tuning of protein expression, antigenicity and virulence. Despite this, the possible role that adaptation to host codon usage plays in virulence and viral evolution has not been studied in ISAV. Methods Intergenomic adaptation between viral and host genomes was calculated using the codon adaptation index score with EMBOSS software and the Kazusa database. Classification of host genes according to GeneOnthology was performed using Blast2go. A non parametric test was applied to determine the presence of significant correlations among CAI, mortality and time. Results Using the codon adaptation index (CAI) score, we found that the encoding genes for nucleoprotein, matrix protein M1 and antagonist of Interferon I signaling (NS1) are the ISAV genes that are more adapted to host codon usage, in agreement with their requirement for production of viral particles and inactivation of antiviral responses. Comparison to host genes showed that ISAV shares CAI values with less than 0.45% of Salmo salar genes. GeneOntology classification of host genes showed that ISAV genes share CAI values with genes from less than 3% of the host biological process, far from the 14% shown by Influenza A viruses and closer to the 5% shown by Influenza B and C. As well, we identified a positive correlation (p<0.05) between CAI values of a virus and the duration of the outbreak disease in given salmon farms, as well as a weak relationship between codon adaptation values of PB1 and the mortality rates of a set of ISA viruses. Conclusions Our analysis shows that ISAV is the least adapted viral Salmo salar pathogen and Orthomyxovirus family member less adapted to host codon usage, avoiding the general behavior of host genes. This is probably due to its recent emergence among farmed Salmon populations. PMID:23829271

Genomic adaptation of the ISA virus to Salmo salar codon usage.

PubMed

Tello, Mario; Vergara, Francisco; Spencer, Eugenio

2013-07-05

The ISA virus (ISAV) is an Orthomyxovirus whose genome encodes for at least 10 proteins. Low protein identity and lack of genetic tools have hampered the study of the molecular mechanism behind its virulence. It has been shown that viral codon usage controls several processes such as translational efficiency, folding, tuning of protein expression, antigenicity and virulence. Despite this, the possible role that adaptation to host codon usage plays in virulence and viral evolution has not been studied in ISAV. Intergenomic adaptation between viral and host genomes was calculated using the codon adaptation index score with EMBOSS software and the Kazusa database. Classification of host genes according to GeneOnthology was performed using Blast2go. A non parametric test was applied to determine the presence of significant correlations among CAI, mortality and time. Using the codon adaptation index (CAI) score, we found that the encoding genes for nucleoprotein, matrix protein M1 and antagonist of Interferon I signaling (NS1) are the ISAV genes that are more adapted to host codon usage, in agreement with their requirement for production of viral particles and inactivation of antiviral responses. Comparison to host genes showed that ISAV shares CAI values with less than 0.45% of Salmo salar genes. GeneOntology classification of host genes showed that ISAV genes share CAI values with genes from less than 3% of the host biological process, far from the 14% shown by Influenza A viruses and closer to the 5% shown by Influenza B and C. As well, we identified a positive correlation (p<0.05) between CAI values of a virus and the duration of the outbreak disease in given salmon farms, as well as a weak relationship between codon adaptation values of PB1 and the mortality rates of a set of ISA viruses. Our analysis shows that ISAV is the least adapted viral Salmo salar pathogen and Orthomyxovirus family member less adapted to host codon usage, avoiding the general behavior of host genes. This is probably due to its recent emergence among farmed Salmon populations.

Human Injury From Atomic Particles and Photon Exposure: Fears, Myths, Risks, and Mortality

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Energy absorbtion from particles and photons moving at relativistic speeds has been a fundamental part of life on earth and wherever else life might exist. Heat and visible light have deeply influenced the course of human evolution, affecting habitat and nutrition. The photons of ionizing radiation that over time can possibly affect evolution, contribute to the more immediate problem of morbidity and mortality of cancer. This review addresses our radiative energy absorbtion, from both natural and manmade sources, and its relationship with disease and death. Educational Public Health efforts to offset the dangers of solar ultraviolet overexposure are presented, together with data on the significant mortality of metastatic melanoma. PMID:20481234

Birth Outcomes and Infant Mortality by the Degree of Rural Isolation among First Nations and Non-First Nations in Manitoba, Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Zhong-Cheng; Wilkins, Russell; Heaman, Maureen; Martens, Patricia; Smylie, Janet; Hart, Lyna; Simonet, Fabienne; Wassimi, Spogmai; Wu, Yuquan; Fraser, William D.

2010-01-01

Context: It is unknown whether rural isolation may affect birth outcomes and infant mortality differentially for Indigenous versus non-Indigenous populations. We assessed birth outcomes and infant mortality by the degree of rural isolation among First Nations (North American Indians) and non-First Nations populations in Manitoba, Canada, a setting…

77 FR 7594 - Advisory Committee on Infant Mortality; Notice of Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-13

... Infant Mortality (ACIM). Dates and Times: March 8, 2012, 8:30 a.m.-6 p.m.; March 9, 2012, 8:30 a.m.-3 p.m... mortality and improving the health status of infants and pregnant women; and factors affecting the continuum...; a Maternal and Child Health Bureau (MCHB) update; an update from the Committee's four workgroups...

Within-stand spatial distribution of tree mortality caused by the Douglas-Fir beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

Treesearch

Jose F. Negron; John A. Anhold; A. Steve Munson

2001-01-01

The Douglas-fir beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins, causes considerable mortality in Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco, forests. Within-stand distribution of mortality was examined in affected stands using geostatistical techniques. A 10 x 10 m grid was established in two 4-ha study sites. Live and beetle-killed host basal area was measured at...

Does raking basal duff affect tree growth rates or mortality?

Treesearch

Erin Noonan-Wright; Sharon M. Hood; Danny R. Cluck

2010-01-01

Mortality and reduced growth rates due to raking accumulated basal duff were evaluated for old, large-diameter ponderosa and Jeffrey pine trees on the Lassen National Forest, California. No fire treatments were included to isolate the effect of raking from fire. Trees were monitored annually for 5 years after the raking treatment for mortality and then cored to measure...

Dependency, democracy, and infant mortality: a quantitative, cross-national analysis of less developed countries.

PubMed

Shandra, John M; Nobles, Jenna; London, Bruce; Williamson, John B

2004-07-01

This study presents quantitative, sociological models designed to account for cross-national variation in infant mortality rates. We consider variables linked to four different theoretical perspectives: the economic modernization, social modernization, political modernization, and dependency perspectives. The study is based on a panel regression analysis of a sample of 59 developing countries. Our preliminary analysis based on additive models replicates prior studies to the extent that we find that indicators linked to economic and social modernization have beneficial effects on infant mortality. We also find support for hypotheses derived from the dependency perspective suggesting that multinational corporate penetration fosters higher levels of infant mortality. Subsequent analysis incorporating interaction effects suggest that the level of political democracy conditions the effects of dependency relationships based upon exports, investments from multinational corporations, and international lending institutions. Transnational economic linkages associated with exports, multinational corporations, and international lending institutions adversely affect infant mortality more strongly at lower levels of democracy than at higher levels of democracy: intranational, political factors interact with the international, economic forces to affect infant mortality. We conclude with some brief policy recommendations and suggestions for the direction of future research.

Predicting Tree Mortality Die-off Events Associated with Hotter Drought and Assessing Their Global Consequences via Ecoclimate Teleconnections.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breshears, D. D.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Adams, H. D.; Barnes, M.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Bradford, J. B.; Cobb, N.; Field, J. P.; Froend, R.; Fontaine, J. B.; Garcia, E.; Hardy, G. E. S. J.; Huxman, T. E.; Kala, J.; Lague, M. M.; Martinez-Yrizar, A.; Matusick, G.; Minor, D. M.; Moore, D. J.; Ng, M.; Ruthrof, K. X.; Saleska, S. R.; Stark, S. C.; Swann, A. L. S.; Villegas, J. C.; Williams, A. P.; Zou, C.

2017-12-01

Evidence that tree mortality is increasingly likely occur in extensive die-off events across the terrestrial biosphere continues to mount. The consequences of such extensive mortality events are potentially profound, not only for the locations where die-off events occur, but also for other locations that could be impacted via ecoclimate teleconnections, whereby the land surface changes associated with die-off in one location could alter atmospheric circulation patterns and affect vegetation elsewhere. Here, we (1) recap the background of tree mortality as an emerging environmental issue, (2) highlight recent advances that could help us improve predictions of the vulnerability to tree mortality, including the underlying importance of hydraulic failure, the potential to develop climatic envelopes specific to tree mortality events, and consideration of the role of heat waves; and (3) initial bounding simulations that indicate the potential for tree die-off events in different locations to alter ecoclimate teleconnections. As we move toward globally coordinated carbon accounting and management, the high vulnerability to tree die-off events and the potential for such events to affect vegetation elsewhere will both need to be accounted for.

Affect-Aware Adaptive Tutoring Based on Human-Automation Etiquette Strategies.

PubMed

Yang, Euijung; Dorneich, Michael C

2018-06-01

We investigated adapting the interaction style of intelligent tutoring system (ITS) feedback based on human-automation etiquette strategies. Most ITSs adapt the content difficulty level, adapt the feedback timing, or provide extra content when they detect cognitive or affective decrements. Our previous work demonstrated that changing the interaction style via different feedback etiquette strategies has differential effects on students' motivation, confidence, satisfaction, and performance. The best etiquette strategy was also determined by user frustration. Based on these findings, a rule set was developed that systemically selected the proper etiquette strategy to address one of four learning factors (motivation, confidence, satisfaction, and performance) under two different levels of user frustration. We explored whether etiquette strategy selection based on this rule set (systematic) or random changes in etiquette strategy for a given level of frustration affected the four learning factors. Participants solved mathematics problems under different frustration conditions with feedback that adapted dynamic changes in etiquette strategies either systematically or randomly. The results demonstrated that feedback with etiquette strategies chosen systematically via the rule set could selectively target and improve motivation, confidence, satisfaction, and performance more than changing etiquette strategies randomly. The systematic adaptation was effective no matter the level of frustration for the participant. If computer tutors can vary the interaction style to effectively mitigate negative emotions, then ITS designers would have one more mechanism in which to design affect-aware adaptations that provide the proper responses in situations where human emotions affect the ability to learn.

Morbidity, Self-Perceived Health and Mortality Among non-Western Immigrants and Their Descendants in Denmark in a Life Phase Perspective.

PubMed

Jervelund, Signe Smith; Malik, Sanam; Ahlmark, Nanna; Villadsen, Sarah Fredsted; Nielsen, Annemette; Vitus, Kathrine

2017-04-01

To enable preventive policies to address health inequity across ethnic groups, this review overviews the current knowledge on morbidity, self-perceived health and mortality among non-Western immigrants and their descendants in Denmark. A systematic search in PUBMED, SCOPUS, Embase and Cochrane as well as in national databases was undertaken. The final number of publications included was 45. Adult immigrants had higher morbidity, but lower mortality compared to ethnic Danes. Immigrant children had higher mortality and morbidity compared to ethnic Danes. Immigrants' health is critical to reach the political goals of integration. Despite non-Western immigrants' higher morbidity than ethnic Danes, no national strategy targeting immigrants' health has been implemented. Future research should include elderly immigrants and children, preferably employing a life-course perspective to enhance understanding of parallel processes of societal adaptation and health.

Modeling organizational determinants of hospital mortality.

PubMed Central

al-Haider, A S; Wan, T T

1991-01-01

This study examines hospital characteristics that affect the differential in hospital mortality. Death rates for 1984 Medicare inpatients in acute care hospitals, released by the Health Care Financing Administration in 1986, were analyzed. A confirmatory statistical approach to organizational determinants of hospital mortality was formulated and validated through an empirical examination of 239 hospitals. The findings suggest that the effect of hospital size and specialization on mortality was a spurious one when the effects of other variables were simultaneously controlled. A positive association existed between service intensity and hospital mortality: the more hospital services consumed, the higher the mortality rate. Community attributes accounted for more variance in hospital mortality rates than did organizational attributes. The organizational and community factors studied explained 27 percent of the total variance in hospital mortality. PMID:1869442

Genetic variation in adaptability and pleiotropy in budding yeast

PubMed Central

Mitchell, James Kameron; Bloom, Joshua S; Kruglyak, Leonid

2017-01-01

Evolution can favor organisms that are more adaptable, provided that genetic variation in adaptability exists. Here, we quantify this variation among 230 offspring of a cross between diverged yeast strains. We measure the adaptability of each offspring genotype, defined as its average rate of adaptation in a specific environmental condition, and analyze the heritability, predictability, and genetic basis of this trait. We find that initial genotype strongly affects adaptability and can alter the genetic basis of future evolution. Initial genotype also affects the pleiotropic consequences of adaptation for fitness in a different environment. This genetic variation in adaptability and pleiotropy is largely determined by initial fitness, according to a rule of declining adaptability with increasing initial fitness, but several individual QTLs also have a significant idiosyncratic role. Our results demonstrate that both adaptability and pleiotropy are complex traits, with extensive heritable differences arising from naturally occurring variation. PMID:28826486

Genetic variation in adaptability and pleiotropy in budding yeast.

PubMed

Jerison, Elizabeth R; Kryazhimskiy, Sergey; Mitchell, James Kameron; Bloom, Joshua S; Kruglyak, Leonid; Desai, Michael M

2017-08-17

Evolution can favor organisms that are more adaptable, provided that genetic variation in adaptability exists. Here, we quantify this variation among 230 offspring of a cross between diverged yeast strains. We measure the adaptability of each offspring genotype, defined as its average rate of adaptation in a specific environmental condition, and analyze the heritability, predictability, and genetic basis of this trait. We find that initial genotype strongly affects adaptability and can alter the genetic basis of future evolution. Initial genotype also affects the pleiotropic consequences of adaptation for fitness in a different environment. This genetic variation in adaptability and pleiotropy is largely determined by initial fitness, according to a rule of declining adaptability with increasing initial fitness, but several individual QTLs also have a significant idiosyncratic role. Our results demonstrate that both adaptability and pleiotropy are complex traits, with extensive heritable differences arising from naturally occurring variation.

Oviposition activity of Drosophila suzukii as mediated by ambient and fruit temperature

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The invasive pest Drosophila suzukii was introduced to southern Europe in 2008 and spread throughout Central Europe in the following years. Precise reliable data on the temperature-dependent behavior of D. suzukii are scarce but will help forecasting and cultivation techniques. Depending on physico-chemical properties, surface temperature of objects may differ from ambient temperatures, determining physical activity, and affect oviposition on or into substrate, determining preimaginal development later. Therefore, the preferred ambient temperatures of D. suzukii and fruit temperature for oviposition were examined on a linear temperature gradient device. Thirty adults (15 ♀; 15 ♂) were adapted to different temperatures (10, 20, 30°C) for six days and then exposed to different temperature gradients (10–25, 20–35, 25–40°C). D. suzukii adapted to 10°C remained in cooler regions and suffered from a significantly higher mortality at the 25–40°C gradient. Animals adapted to warmer temperatures had a wider temperature preference on the gradient device. Acclimation to lower temperatures and the resulting lower temperature preferences may allow the flies to disperse better in spring to search for oviposition sites. The oviposition activity decreased continuously at a fruit temperature above 28°C and below 15°C, with highest oviposition activity in fruits with temperatures between 19.7°C and 24.8°C. The preferred fruit temperature is in accordance with the temperature optimum of reproduction biology and preimaginal development of D. suzukii reported in the literature. PMID:29121635

Coping with the New Era: Noise and Light Pollution, Hperactivity and Steroid Hormones. Towards an Evolutionary View of Bipolar Disorders.

PubMed

Carta, M G; Preti, A; Akiskal, H S

2018-01-01

Human population is increasing in immense cities with millions of inhabitants, in which life is expected to run 24 hours a day for seven days a week (24/7). Noise and light pollution are the most reported consequences, with a profound impact on sleep patterns and circadian biorhythms. Disruption of sleep and biorhythms has severe consequences on many metabolic pathways. Suppression of melatonin incretion at night and the subsequent effect on DNA methylation may increase the risk of prostate and breast cancer. A negative impact of light pollution on neurosteroids may also affect mood. People who carry the genetic risk of bipolar disorder may be at greater risk of full-blown bipolar disorder because of the impact of noise and light pollution on sleep patterns and circadian biorhythms. However, living in cities may also offers opportunities and might be selective for people with hyperthymic temperament, who may find themselves advantaged by increased energy prompted by increased stimulation produced by life in big cities. This might result in the spreading of the genetic risk of bipolar disorder in the coming decades. In this perspective the burden of poor quality of life, increased disability adjusted life years and premature mortality due to the increases of mood disorders is the negative side of a phenomenon that in its globality also shows adaptive aspects. The new lifestyle also influences those who adapt and show behaviors, reactions and responses that might resemble the disorder, but are on the adaptive side.

Elevated surface temperature depresses survival of banner-tailed kangaroo rats: will climate change cook a desert icon?

PubMed

Moses, Martin R; Frey, Jennifer K; Roemer, Gary W

2012-01-01

Modest increases in global temperature have been implicated in causing population extirpations and range shifts in taxa inhabiting colder environs and in ectotherms whose thermoregulation is more closely tied to environmental conditions. Many arid-adapted endotherms already experience conditions at their physiological limits, so it is conceivable that they could be similarly affected by warming temperatures. We explored how climatic variables might influence the apparent survival of the banner-tailed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys spectabilis), a rodent endemic to the Chihuahuan Desert of North America and renowned for its behavioral and physiological adaptations to arid environments. Relative variable weight, strength of variable relationships, and other criteria indicated that summer, diurnal land surface temperature (SD_LST) was the primary environmental driver of apparent survival in these arid-adapted rodents. Higher temperatures had a negative effect on apparent survival, which ranged from 0.15 (SE = 0.04) for subadults to 0.50 (SE = 0.07) for adults. Elevated SD_LST may negatively influence survival through multiple pathways, including increased water loss and energy expenditure that could lead to chronic stress and/or hyperthermia that could cause direct mortality. Land surface temperatures are predicted to increase by as much 6.5°C by 2099, reducing apparent survival of adults to ~0.15 in some regions of the species' range, possibly causing a shift in their distribution. The relationship between SD_LST and survival suggests a mechanism whereby physiological tolerances are exceeded resulting in a reduction to individual fitness that may ultimately cause a shift in the species' range over time.

Diatomaceous earth and oil enhance effectiveness of Metarhizium anisopliae against Triatoma infestans.

PubMed

Luz, Christian; Rodrigues, Juscelino; Rocha, Luiz F N

2012-04-01

Entomopathogenic fungi, especially Metarhizium anisopliae, have potential for integrated control of peridomestic triatomine bugs. However, the high susceptibility of these vectors to fungal infection at elevated ambient humidities decreases in the comparatively dry conditions that often prevail in their microhabitats. A formulation adapted to this target pest that induces high and quick mortality can help to overcome these drawbacks. In the present study diatomaceous earth, which is used against pests of stored grains or as an additive to mycoinsecticides, delayed but did not reduce in vitro germination of M. anisopliae s.l. IP 46 conidia after >24h agitation without affecting viability, and did not hamper the survival of Triatoma infestans nymphs exposed to treated surfaces. The settling behavior of nymphs on a treated surface in choice tests depended on the concentration of diatomaceous earth and ambient light level. Conidia formulated with diatomaceous earth and a vegetable oil synergized the insecticidal effect of the fungus in nymphs, and quickly killed all treated insects, even at 75% relative humidity (LT(90) 8.3 days) where unformulated conidia caused only 25% mortality after a 25 days exposure. The improved performance of a combined oil and desiccant dust formulation of this Metarhizium isolate raises the likelihood for its successful mycoinsecticidal use for triatomine control and, apparently, against other domestic insect pests. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Additive genetic variation for tolerance to estrogen pollution in natural populations of Alpine whitefish (Coregonus sp., Salmonidae).

PubMed

Brazzola, Gregory; Chèvre, Nathalie; Wedekind, Claus

2014-11-01

The evolutionary potential of natural populations to adapt to anthropogenic threats critically depends on whether there exists additive genetic variation for tolerance to the threat. A major problem for water-dwelling organisms is chemical pollution, and among the most common pollutants is 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the synthetic estrogen that is used in oral contraceptives and that can affect fish at various developmental stages, including embryogenesis. We tested whether there is variation in the tolerance to EE2 within Alpine whitefish. We sampled spawners from two species of different lakes, bred them in vitro in a full-factorial design each, and studied growth and mortality of embryos. Exposure to EE2 turned out to be toxic in all concentrations we tested (≥1 ng/L). It reduced embryo viability and slowed down embryogenesis. We found significant additive genetic variation in EE2-induced mortality in both species, that is, genotypes differed in their tolerance to estrogen pollution. We also found maternal effects on embryo development to be influenced by EE2, that is, some maternal sib groups were more susceptible to EE2 than others. In conclusion, the toxic effects of EE2 were strong, but both species demonstrated the kind of additive genetic variation that is necessary for an evolutionary response to this type of pollution.

Comorbidity indices for clinical trials: adaptation of two existing indices for use with the FREEDOM trial in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis.

PubMed

Silverman, S L; Wang, A; Cheng, L; Yang, Y; Libanati, C; Geller, M; Grauer, A; Nevitt, M; Revicki, D; Viswanathan, H N

2016-01-01

Two comorbidity indices were adapted for use in the FREEDOM trial and significantly correlated with the number of medications and impaired health status at baseline. The indices have applications for the analysis of clinical trial data and would allow for the appropriate adjustment of comorbidities when evaluating clinical trial outcomes. The purpose of this study is to adapt two published comorbidity indices for use with the FREEDOM clinical trial evaluating postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. FREEDOM enrolled women aged 60-90 years with a bone mineral density T-score <-2.5 at the lumbar spine or total hip and ≥-4.0 at both sites. Comorbidity indices were calculated using methods described by Sangha (Arthritis Rheum 49:156-163, 2003) and Wolfe (J Rheumatol 37:305-315, 2010) following modification. The adapted Sangha index included 12 conditions with a summary score of 0-12; the adapted Wolfe index included 7 conditions with a weighted summary score of 0-8. Higher scores indicated greater comorbidity. A panel of clinicians independently reviewed subjects' medical histories using a systematic process based on Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) preferred terms to map specified comorbid conditions. Spearman correlations between the adapted indices and baseline subject characteristics expected to be associated with comorbidities were examined. Of the 7808 subjects in this study, 74 % had ≥1 comorbidities based on the adapted Sangha or Wolfe comorbidity indices. The mean (SD) adapted Sangha and Wolfe comorbidity indices were 1.4 (1.2) and 1.4 (1.3), respectively. Both indices correlated positively with age, body mass index, and the number of medications (r = 0.54 to 0.55) at baseline and inversely correlated with health-related quality of life (r = -0.22 to -0.30) (all P < 0.0001). Further, when either the adapted Sangha or Wolfe index was included as a covariate for assessing mortality over 36 months in the FREEDOM population, the hazard ratio of the comorbidity index indicated that the mortality risk increased by 27 or 28 %, respectively, for each unit increase in the adapted index (both P < 0.0001). Our work suggests these comorbidity indices may be adapted for use with clinical trial data, thereby allowing for the appropriate adjustment and reporting of covariates in the evaluation of clinical trial outcomes in an osteoporotic population.

Actuarial calculation for PSAK-24 purposes post-employment benefit using market-consistent approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie

2015-12-01

In this paper we use a market-consistent approach to calculate present value of obligation of a companies' post-employment benefit in accordance with PSAK-24 (the Indonesian accounting standard). We set some actuarial assumption such as Indonesian TMI 2011 mortality tables for mortality assumptions, accumulated salary function for wages assumption, a scaled (to mortality) disability assumption and a pre-defined turnover rate for termination assumption. For economic assumption, we use binomial tree method with estimated discount rate as its average movement. In accordance with PSAK-24, the Projected Unit Credit method has been adapted to determine the present value of obligation (actuarial liability), so we use this method with a modification in its discount function.

Smoking, health, risk, and perception.

PubMed

Carbone, Jared C; Kverndokk, Snorre; Røgeberg, Ole Jørgen

2005-07-01

We provide a description of health-related incentives faced by a rational smoker by considering the role of perception in both immediate quality-of-life effects of smoking and future risk of mortality. A person who adapts psychologically to a lowered health state, smokes more early in life and shifts demands for health investments and health-complementary activities later in life. He also smokes more in total. Someone aware of the full mortality consequences of smoking, smokes less and demands less medical care than someone who believes that these effects are highly reversible. The impacts of new information on mortality risk are most valuable early in life. Lastly, someone endowed with a longer life expectancy smokes more in the first part of life but conditional on access to medical care.

The Human Impact of Tropical Cyclones: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Dick, Anna; Daniels, Amy; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Background. Cyclones have significantly affected populations in Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Americas over the past quarter of a century. Future vulnerability to cyclones will increase due to factors including population growth, urbanization, increasing coastal settlement, and global warming. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of cyclones on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of cyclones were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to 2009 of cyclone events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between cyclone characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 412,644 deaths, 290,654 injured, and 466.1 million people affected by cyclones between 1980 and 2009, and the mortality and injury burden was concentrated in less developed nations of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of cyclone-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries male gender was associated with increased mortality risk, whereas females experienced higher mortality in less developed countries. Conclusions. Additional attention to preparedness and early warning, particularly in Asia, can lessen the impact of future cyclones. PMID:23857074

Factors affecting early and long-term outcomes after completion pneumonectomy.

PubMed

Chataigner, Olivier; Fadel, Elie; Yildizeli, Bedrettin; Achir, Abdallah; Mussot, Sacha; Fabre, Dominique; Mercier, Olaf; Dartevelle, Philippe G

2008-05-01

To identify factors that affect operative mortality and morbidity and long-term survival after completion pneumonectomy. We retrospectively reviewed the charts of consecutive patients who underwent completion pneumonectomy at our cardiothoracic surgery department from January 1996 to December 2005. We identified 69 patients, who accounted for 17.8% of all pneumonectomies during the study period; 22 had benign disease and 47 malignant disease (second primary lung cancer, n=19; local recurrence, n=17; or metastasis, n=11). There were 50 males and 19 females with a mean age of 60 years (range, 29-80 years). Postoperative mortality was 12% and postoperative morbidity 41%. Factors associated with postoperative mortality included obesity (p=0.005), coronary artery disease (p=0.03), removal of the right lung (p=0.02), advanced age (p=0.02), and renal failure (p<0.0001). Preoperative renal failure was the only significant risk factor for mortality by multivariate analysis (p=0.036). Bronchopleural fistula developed in seven patients (10%), with risk factors being removal of the right lung (p=0.04) and mechanical stump closure (p=0.03). Overall survival was 65% after 3 years and 46% after 5 years. Long-term survival was not affected by the reason for completion pneumonectomy. Although long-term survival was acceptable, postoperative mortality and morbidity rates remained high, confirming the reputation of completion pneumonectomy as a challenging procedure. Significant comorbidities and removal of the right lung were the main risk factors for postoperative mortality. Improved patient selection and better management of preoperative renal failure may improve the postoperative outcomes of this procedure, which offers a chance for prolonged survival.

The effects of venting and decompression on Yellow Tang (Zebrasoma flavescens) in the marine ornamental aquarium fish trade

PubMed Central

Tissot, Brian N.; Heidel, Jerry R.; Miller-Morgan, Tim

2015-01-01

Each year, over 45 countries export 30 million fish from coral reefs as part of the global marine ornamental aquarium trade. This catch volume is partly influenced by collection methods that cause mortality. Barotrauma in fish resulting from forced ascent from depth can contribute to post-collection mortality. However, implementing decompression stops during ascent can prevent barotrauma. Conversely, venting (puncturing the swim bladder to release expanded internal gas) following ascent can mitigate some signs of barotrauma like positive buoyancy. Here, we evaluate how decompression and venting affect stress and mortality in the Yellow Tang (Zebrasoma flavescens). We examined the effects of three ascent treatments, each with decompression stops of varying frequency and duration, coupled with or without venting, on sublethal effects and mortality using histology and serum cortisol measurements. In fish subjected to ascent without decompression stops or venting, a mean post-collection mortality of 6.2% occurred within 24 h of capture. Common collection methods in the fishery, ascent without decompression stops coupled with venting, or one long decompression stop coupled with venting, resulted in no mortality. Histopathologic examination of heart, liver, head kidney, and swim bladder tissues in fish 0d and 21d post-collection revealed no significant barotrauma- or venting-related lesions in any treatment group. Ascent without decompression stops resulted in significantly higher serum cortisol than ascent with many stops, while venting alone did not affect cortisol. Future work should examine links in the supply chain following collection to determine if further handling and transport stressors affect survivorship and sublethal effects. PMID:25737809

Penetrating abdominal injuries during the Syrian war: Patterns and factors affecting mortality rates.

PubMed

Arafat, Shawqi; Alsabek, Mhd Belal; Ahmad, Mousa; Hamo, Iman; Munder, Eskander

2017-05-01

A large number of innocent Syrians were injured or killed during the years of war. This retrospective study investigates the differences in patterns of injury and factors affecting the mortality rate in 324 patients coming to Damascus Hospital with penetrating abdominal trauma, and illustrates the difficulties of diagnosis and decision making in crisis situations. A retrospective study was registered from patient's records between October 2012 and June 2013 in Damascus Hospital. All victims were injured either by explosions or gunshots. A total of 325 patients: 183 by explosion; 56.3%, 141 by gunshot; 43.3%, and one patient by other means; 0.3% were reviewed. The study focused on the two large groups with a total of 324 patients. Males were predominant (82.1%; n=266) and the majority of patients were between 19 and 35 years old. Patients suffering from multi abdominal organ injury were more common in gunshot group (n=72, 51.1%) compared to the explosion group (n=83, 45.3%). 264 patients (81.5%) underwent surgical operations and only 22 (8.3%) had normal laparotomy. The inpatient mortality rate was (17.0%; n=55), and there was no difference in mortality rate between the two groups. More than the half of deaths (n=42; 76.4%) had a P.A.T.I score≥25 where the death rate was 35.6% which is higher compared to 6.3% in those with a P.A.T.I<25. In the ICU 33 patients died, of these (87.9%; n=29) died after immediate admission to the ICU which is higher compared with a later admission (12.1%; n=4). The need for massive blood transfusion affected the mortality rate. Efforts must be directed toward training of medical staff to deal with crisis incidents. The need for massive blood transfusion and ICU admissions can affects mortality. P.A.T.I was found to be an effective predictor of mortality. Clinical experience in this field can produce better health care and faster judgments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prism adaptation in Parkinson disease: comparing reaching to walking and freezers to non-freezers.

PubMed

Nemanich, Samuel T; Earhart, Gammon M

2015-08-01

Visuomotor adaptation to gaze-shifting prism glasses requires recalibration of the relationship between sensory input and motor output. Healthy individuals flexibly adapt movement patterns to many external perturbations; however, individuals with cerebellar damage do not adapt movements to the same extent. People with Parkinson disease (PD) adapt normally, but exhibit reduced after-effects, which are negative movement errors following the removal of the prism glasses and are indicative of true spatial realignment. Walking is particularly affected in PD, and many individuals experience freezing of gait (FOG), an episodic interruption in walking, that is thought to have a distinct pathophysiology. Here, we examined how individuals with PD with (PD + FOG) and without (PD - FOG) FOG, along with healthy older adults, adapted both reaching and walking patterns to prism glasses. Participants completed a visually guided reaching and walking task with and without rightward-shifting prism glasses. All groups adapted at similar rates during reaching and during walking. However, overall walking adaptation rates were slower compared to reaching rates. The PD - FOG group showed smaller after-effects, particularly during walking, compared to PD + FOG, independent of adaptation magnitude. While FOG did not appear to affect characteristics of prism adaptation, these results support the idea that the distinct neural processes governing visuomotor adaptation and storage are differentially affected by basal ganglia dysfunction in PD.

Viral control of phytoplankton populations--a review.

PubMed

Brussaard, Corina P D

2004-01-01

Phytoplankton population dynamics are the result of imbalances between reproduction and losses. Losses include grazing, sinking, and natural mortality. As the importance of microbes in aquatic ecology has been recognized, so has the potential significance of viruses as mortality agents for phytoplankton. The field of algal virus ecology is steadily changing and advancing as new viruses are isolated and new methods are developed for quantifying the impact of viruses on phytoplankton dynamics and diversity. With this development, evidence is accumulating that viruses can control phytoplankton dynamics through reduction of host populations, or by preventing algal host populations from reaching high levels. The identification of highly specific host ranges of viruses is changing our understanding of population dynamics. Viral-mediated mortality may not only affect algal species succession, but may also affect intraspecies succession. Through cellular lysis, viruses indirectly affect the fluxes of energy, nutrients, and organic matter, especially during algal bloom events when biomass is high. Although the importance of viruses is presently recognized, it is apparent that many aspects of viral-mediated mortality of phytoplankton are still poorly understood. It is imperative that future research addresses the mechanisms that regulate virus infectivity, host resistance, genotype richness, abundance, and the fate of viruses over time and space.

Data on cardiac defects, morbidity and mortality in patients affected by RASopathies. CARNET study results.

PubMed

Calcagni, Giulio; Limongelli, Giuseppe; D'Ambrosio, Angelo; Gesualdo, Francesco; Digilio, Maria Cristina; Baban, Anwar; Albanese, Sonia B; Versacci, Paolo; De Luca, Enrica; Ferrero, Giovanni B; Baldassarre, Giuseppina; Agnoletti, Gabriella; Banaudi, Elena; Marek, Jan; Kaski, Juan P; Tuo, Giulia; Russo, Maria Giovanna; Pacileo, Giuseppe; Milanesi, Ornella; Messina, Daniela; Marasini, Maurizio; Cairello, Francesca; Formigari, Roberto; Brighenti, Maurizio; Dallapiccola, Bruno; Tartaglia, Marco; Marino, Bruno

2018-02-01

A comprehensive description of morbidity and mortality in patients affected by mutations in genes encoding for signal transducers of the RAS-MAPK cascade (RASopathies) was performed in our study recently published in the International Journal of Cardiology. Seven European cardiac centres participating to the CArdiac Rasopathy NETwork (CARNET), collaborated in this multicentric, observational, retrospective data analysis and collection. In this study, clinical records of 371 patients with confirmed molecular diagnosis of RASopathy were reviewed. Cardiac defects, crude mortality, survival rate of patients with 1) hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and age <2 years or young adults; 2) individuals with Noonan syndrome and pulmonary stenosis carrying PTPN11 mutations; 3) biventricular obstruction and PTPN11 mutations; 4) Costello syndrome or cardiofaciocutaneous syndrome were analysed. Mortality was described as crude mortality, cumulative survival and restricted estimated mean survival. In particular, with this Data In Brief (DIB) paper, the authors aim to report specific statistic highlights of the multivariable regression analysis that was used to assess the impact of mutated genes on number of interventions and overall prognosis.

Growing season burns for control of hardwoods in longleaf pine stands

Treesearch

William D. Boyer

1990-01-01

Summer fires in existing longleaf pine stands carry undue risk of pine mortality. One summer fire caused as much mortality among pines in the l- through 4-inch d.b.h. classes as two successive summer fires among hardwoods of the same size. Mortality among mature pines was also excessive. Hardwood top-kill following a spring fire seemed affected more by fire intensity...

Race, Neighborhood Economic Status, Income Inequality and Mortality.

PubMed

Mode, Nicolle A; Evans, Michele K; Zonderman, Alan B

2016-01-01

Mortality rates in the United States vary based on race, individual economic status and neighborhood. Correlations among these variables in most urban areas have limited what conclusions can be drawn from existing research. Our study employs a unique factorial design of race, sex, age and individual poverty status, measuring time to death as an objective measure of health, and including both neighborhood economic status and income inequality for a sample of middle-aged urban-dwelling adults (N = 3675). At enrollment, African American and White participants lived in 46 unique census tracts in Baltimore, Maryland, which varied in neighborhood economic status and degree of income inequality. A Cox regression model for 9-year mortality identified a three-way interaction among sex, race and individual poverty status (p = 0.03), with African American men living below poverty having the highest mortality. Neighborhood economic status, whether measured by a composite index or simply median household income, was negatively associated with overall mortality (p<0.001). Neighborhood income inequality was associated with mortality through an interaction with individual poverty status (p = 0.04). While racial and economic disparities in mortality are well known, this study suggests that several social conditions associated with health may unequally affect African American men in poverty in the United States. Beyond these individual factors are the influences of neighborhood economic status and income inequality, which may be affected by a history of residential segregation. The significant association of neighborhood economic status and income inequality with mortality beyond the synergistic combination of sex, race and individual poverty status suggests the long-term importance of small area influence on overall mortality.

Psychiatric symptoms are not an independent mortality risk factor in community-living elderly people.

PubMed

Benabarre, Sergio; Olivera, Javier; Lorente, Teófilo; Rodriguez, Mariano; Barros-Loscertales, Alfonso; Pelegrín, Carmelo; Claver, Paula; Galindo, Izarbe; Labarta, María; Rodriguez, Jara

2014-06-01

Mortality risk factors have attracted great research interest in recent years. Physical illness is strongly associated with mortality risk in elderly people. Furthermore, a relationship between mortality risk and psychiatric disease in the elderly has gained research interest. This is a prospective longitudinal multicenter study. A sample of 324 participants was selected as a representative sample of community members aged 65 years and older and living in Huesca (Spain). The following information was collected: affiliation data, severity of physical illness, psychosocial, and psychiatric factors. Statistical analyses were completed with a multivariate analysis in order to control possible confounding variables related to mortality. Of the initially selected sample, 293 participants were assessed. Sixty-four participants died (21.8%, 95% CI [16.9%, 26.7%]), 5.3% annual rate, and 46.1% showed symptomatology of mental disorders. Older people have eight times greater risk of mortality. The risk increased 53 times in patients affected by several physical illness. No relationship between cognitive dysfunction and depressive symptomatology was observed. In fact, physical condition was associated with depression, and the percentage of participants with depressive symptoms increased according to the severity of physical illness. Severity of physical illness and age are independently and directly associated with mortality in the elderly people. Therefore, severity of physical illness seems to be a crucial factor in the bi-directional association between mortality and depression, acting as a risk factor independently for both. So the relationship between depression and mortality can be affected by the severity of physical illness.

A retrospective study of factors influencing survival following surgery for gastric dilatation-volvulus syndrome in 306 dogs.

PubMed

Mackenzie, George; Barnhart, Mathew; Kennedy, Shawn; DeHoff, William; Schertel, Eric

2010-01-01

Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition in dogs that has been associated with high mortality rates in previous studies. Factors were evaluated in this study for their influence on overall and postoperative mortality in 306 confirmed cases of GDV between 2000 and 2004. The overall mortality rate was 10%, and the postoperative mortality rate was 6.1%. The factor that was associated with a significant increase in overall mortality was the presence of preoperative cardiac arrhythmias. Factors that were associated with a significant increase in postoperative mortality were postoperative cardiac arrhythmias, splenectomy, or splenectomy with partial gastric resection. The factor that was associated with a significant decrease in the overall mortality rate was time from presentation to surgery. This study documents that certain factors continue to affect the overall and postoperative mortality rates associated with GDV, but these mortality rates have decreased compared to previously reported rates.

Affective states and adaptation to parabolic flights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collado, Aurélie; Langlet, Cécile; Tzanova, Tzvetomira; Hainaut, Jean-Philippe; Monfort, Vincent; Bolmont, Benoît

2017-05-01

This exploratory study investigates (i) inter-individual variations of affective states before a parabolic flight (i.e., PF) on the basis of quality of adaptation to physical demands, and (ii) intra-individual variations of affective states during a PF. Mood-states, state-anxiety and salivary cortisol were assessed in two groups with a different quality of adaptation (an Adaptive Group, i.e., AG, and a Maladaptive Group, i.e., MG) before and during a PF. Before PF, MG scored higher on mood states (Anger-Hostility, Fatigue-Inertia) than AG. During the flight, while AG seemed to present "normal" affective responses to the demanding environment (e.g., increase in salivary cortisol), MG presented increases in mood states such as Confusion-Bewilderment or Tension-Anxiety. The findings suggest that the psychological states of MG could have disturbed their ability to integrate sensory information from an unusual environment, which led to difficulties in coping with the physical demands of PF.

Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Charmian M.; Dear, Keith B. G.; McMichael, Anthony J.

2014-07-01

Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality.

Sponge mass mortalities in a warming Mediterranean Sea: are cyanobacteria-harboring species worse off?

PubMed

Cebrian, Emma; Uriz, Maria Jesus; Garrabou, Joaquim; Ballesteros, Enric

2011-01-01

Mass mortality events are increasing dramatically in all coastal marine environments. Determining the underlying causes of mass mortality events has proven difficult in the past because of the lack of prior quantitative data on populations and environmental variables. Four-year surveys of two shallow-water sponge species, Ircinia fasciculata and Sarcotragus spinosulum, were carried out in the western Mediterranean Sea. These surveys provided evidence of two severe sponge die-offs (total mortality ranging from 80 to 95% of specimens) occurring in the summers of 2008 and 2009. These events primarily affected I. fasciculata, which hosts both phototrophic and heterotrophic microsymbionts, while they did not affect S. spinosulum, which harbors only heterotrophic bacteria. We observed a significant positive correlation between the percentage of injured I. fasciculata specimens and exposure time to elevated temperature conditions in all populations, suggesting a key role of temperature in triggering mortality events. A comparative ultrastructural study of injured and healthy I. fasciculata specimens showed that cyanobacteria disappeared from injured specimens, which suggests that cyanobacterial decay could be involved in I. fasciculata mortality. A laboratory experiment confirmed that the cyanobacteria harbored by I. fasciculata displayed a significant reduction in photosynthetic efficiency in the highest temperature treatment. The sponge disease reported here led to a severe decrease in the abundance of the surveyed populations. It represents one of the most dramatic mass mortality events to date in the Mediterranean Sea.

Mortality trends among refugees in Honduras, 1984-1987.

PubMed

Desenclos, J C; Michel, D; Tholly, F; Magdi, I; Pecoul, B; Desve, G

1990-06-01

Mortality data collected from 1984 to 1987 through a routine standardized health information system in the five main refugee populations of Honduras were reviewed. The direct standardized mean annual death rate for all refugees was 5.5 per 1000 population (Honduras population as reference; Honduras mortality rate: 10.1 per 1000). Mortality decreased or remained stable among Salvadoran refugees from 1984 to 1987, but increased among Nicaraguan refugees after 1985. The highest neonatal (56.1 per 1000 livebirths), infant (126.1 per 1000 livebirths) and under-five-year-olds (35.7 per 1000 child less than five years of age) mortality rates were observed in the two Nicaraguan camps. These two camps had the highest rate of newly arriving refugees. Deaths in infants and under-five-year-olds accounted for 42 and 54.1% of all deaths respectively. Of all deaths under five years of age, respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases and measles accounted for 21.4%, 22.1% and 4.7%, respectively. Mortality rates, particularly among under-five-year-olds and infants increased when the rate of newly arriving refugees was higher. The importance of adapted health surveillance in refugee settlements is discussed.

Anaemia: can we define haemoglobin thresholds for impaired oxygen homeostasis and suggest new strategies for treatment?

PubMed

Hare, Gregory M T; Tsui, Albert K Y; Ozawa, Sherri; Shander, Aryeh

2013-03-01

Observational clinical studies in perioperative medicine have defined a progressive increase in mortality that is proportional to both chronic preoperative anaemia and acute interpretative reductions in haemoglobin concentration (Hb). However, this knowledge has not yet helped to define the critical Hb threshold for organ injury and mortality in specific patient populations or in individual patients. Nor has this knowledge enabled us to develop effective treatment strategies for anaemia, as evident from the lack of a demonstrable improvement in survival in patients randomised to higher Hb levels by various treatment strategies including allogeneic red blood cell transfusion, erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and haemoglobin-based oxygen carriers (HBOCs). These findings emphasise the need for a clearer understanding of the mechanism of anaemia-induced mortality. Towards achieving this goal, experimental studies have defined adaptive mechanism by which oxygen homeostasis is maintained during acute anaemia. The mechanisms include: (1) effective sensing of anaemia-induced tissue hypoxia; (2) adaptive cardiovascular responses to maintain adequate tissue oxygen delivery; (3) heterogeneity of organ-specific oxygen delivery to preferentially sustain vital organs which are essential for acute survival (heart and brain); (4) evidence of increased vital organ injury with interruption of cardiovascular responses to anaemia and (5) evidence of activation of adaptive cellular responses to maintain oxygen homeostasis and support survival during acute anaemia. Understanding these mechanisms may allow us to define treatment thresholds and novel treatment strategies for acute anaemia based on biological markers of tissue hypoxia. The overall goal of these approaches is to improve patient outcomes, including event-free perioperative survival. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of dialysis practice patterns on outcomes in acute kidney injury in Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Annigeri, Rajeev A; Nandeesh, Venkatappa; Karuniya, Ramanathan; Rajalakshmi, Sasikumar; Venkataraman, Ramesh; Ramakrishnan, Nagarajan

2016-01-01

Recent advances in dialysis therapy have made an impact on the clinical practice of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in acute kidney injury (AKI) in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). We studied the impact of RRT practice changes on outcomes in AKI in ICU over a period of 8 years. AKI patients requiring RRT in ICU referred to a nephrologist during two different periods (period-1: Between May 2004 and May 2007, n = 69; period-2: Between August 2008 and May 2011, n = 93) were studied. The major changes in the dialysis practice during the period-2, compared to period-1 were introduction of prolonged intermittent RRT (PIRRT), early dialysis for metabolic acidosis, early initiation of RRT for anuria and positive fluid balance and use of bicarbonate-based fluids for continuous RRT (CRRT) instead of lactate buffer. The primary study outcome was 28-day hospital mortality. The mean age was 53.8 ± 16.1 years and 72.6% were male. Introduction of PIRRT resulted in 37% reduction in utilization of CRRT during period-2 (from 85.5% to 53.7%). The overall mortality was high (68%) but was significantly reduced during period-2 compared to period-1 (59% vs. 79.7%, P = 0.006). Metabolic acidosis but not the mode of RRT, was the significant factor which influenced mortality. Adaption of PIRRT resulted in 37% reduction of utilization of CRRT. The mortality rate was significantly reduced during the period of adaption of PIRRT, possibly due to early initiation of RRT in the latter period for indications such as anuria and metabolic acidosis.

Factors affecting swimming performance of fasted rainbow trout with implications of exhaustive exercise on overwinter mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpkins, D.G.; Hubert, W.A.; Del Rio, C.M.; Rule, D.C.

2004-01-01

We evaluated the effects of body size, water temperature, and sustained swimming activity on swimming performance and the effects of exhaustive exercise on mortality of fasted juvenile rainbow trout. Fasting caused swimming performance to decline more rapidly for small fish than large fish, and warmer water temperatures and sustained swimming activity further decreased swimming performance. Exhaustive exercise increased mortality among fasted fish. Our observations suggest that juvenile rainbow trout with little or no food intake during winter can swim for long periods of time with little effect on mortality, but swimming to exhaustion can enhance mortality, especially among the smallest juveniles.

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang

Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributablemore » to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.« less

Cross-cultural Adaptation and Validation of the Medication Regimen Complexity Index Adapted to Spanish.

PubMed

Saez de la Fuente, Javier; Such Diaz, Ana; Cañamares-Orbis, Irene; Ramila, Estela; Izquierdo-Garcia, Elsa; Esteban, Concepcion; Escobar-Rodríguez, Ismael

2016-11-01

The most widely used validated instrument to assess the complexity of medication regimens is the Medication Regimen Complexity Index (MRCI). This study aimed to translate, adapt, and validate a reliable version of the MRCI adapted to Spanish (MRCI-E). The cross-cultural adaptation process consisted of an independent translation by 3 clinical pharmacists and a backtranslation by 2 native English speakers. A reliability analysis was conducted on 20 elderly randomly selected patients. Two clinical pharmacists calculated the MRCI-E from discharge treatments and 2 months later. For the validity analysis, the sample was augmented to 60 patients. Convergent validity was assessed by analyzing the correlation between the number of medications; discriminant validity was stratified by gender; and predictive validity was determined by analyzing the ability to predict readmission and mortality at 3 and 6 months. The MRCI-E retained the original structure of 3 sections. The reliability analysis demonstrated an excellent internal consistency (Cronbach's α=0.83), and the intraclass correlation coefficient exceeded 0.9 in all cases. The correlation coefficient with the number of medications was 0.883 ( P<0.001). No significant differences were found when stratified by gender (3.6; 95%CI=-2.9 to 10.2; P=0.27). Patients who were readmitted at 3 months had a higher MRCI-E score (10.7; 95%CI=4.4 to 17.2; P=0.001). The differences remained significant in patients readmitted at 6 months, but differences in mortality were not detected. The MRCI-E retains the reliability and validity of the original index and provides a suitable tool to assess the complexity of medication regimens in Spanish.

Importance of plasticity and local adaptation for coping with changing salinity in coastal areas: a test case with barnacles in the Baltic Sea

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Salinity plays an important role in shaping coastal marine communities. Near-future climate predictions indicate that salinity will decrease in many shallow coastal areas due to increased precipitation; however, few studies have addressed this issue. The ability of ecosystems to cope with future changes will depend on species’ capacities to acclimatise or adapt to new environmental conditions. Here, we investigated the effects of a strong salinity gradient (the Baltic Sea system – Baltic, Kattegat, Skagerrak) on plasticity and adaptations in the euryhaline barnacle Balanus improvisus. We used a common-garden approach, where multiple batches of newly settled barnacles from each of three different geographical areas along the Skagerrak-Baltic salinity gradient were exposed to corresponding native salinities (6, 15 and 30 PSU), and phenotypic traits including mortality, growth, shell strength, condition index and reproductive maturity were recorded. Results We found that B. improvisus was highly euryhaline, but had highest growth and reproductive maturity at intermediate salinities. We also found that low salinity had negative effects on other fitness-related traits including initial growth and shell strength, although mortality was also lowest in low salinity. Overall, differences between populations in most measured traits were weak, indicating little local adaptation to salinity. Nonetheless, we observed some population-specific responses – notably that populations from high salinity grew stronger shells in their native salinity compared to the other populations, possibly indicating adaptation to differences in local predation pressure. Conclusions Our study shows that B. improvisus is an example of a true brackish-water species, and that plastic responses are more likely than evolutionary tracking in coping with future changes in coastal salinity. PMID:25038588

Multi-locus sequence typing of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium isolates from wild birds in northern England suggests host-adapted strain.

PubMed

Hughes, L A; Wigley, P; Bennett, M; Chantrey, J; Williams, N

2010-10-01

Recent studies have suggested that Salmonella Typhimurium strains associated with mortality in UK garden birds are significantly different from strains that cause disease in humans and livestock and that wild bird strains may be host adapted. However, without further genomic characterization of these strains, it is not possible to determine whether they are host adapted. The aim of this study was to characterize a representative sample of Salm. Typhimurium strains detected in wild garden birds using multi-locus sequence typing (MLST)to investigate evolutionary relationships between them. Multi-locus sequence typing was performed on nine Salm. Typhimurium strains isolated from wild garden birds. Two sequence types were identified, the most common of which was ST568. Examination of the public Salmonella enterica MLST database revealed that only three other ST568 isolates had been cultured from a human in Scotland. Two further isolates of Salm. Typhimurium were determined to be ST19. Results of MLST analysis suggest that there is a predominant strain of Salm. Typhimurium circulating among garden bird populations in the United Kingdom, which is rarely detected in other species, supporting the hypothesis that this strain is host adapted. Host-pathogen evolution is often assumed to lead to pathogens becoming less virulent to avoid the death of their host; however, infection with ST568 led to high mortality rates among the wild birds examined, which were all found dead at wild bird-feeding stations. We hypothesize that by attracting unnaturally high densities of birds, wild bird-feeding stations may facilitate the transmission of ST568 between wild birds, therefore reducing the evolutionary cost of this pathogen killing its host, resulting in a host-adapted strain with increased virulence.

Effects of high summer temperatures on mortality in 50 Spanish cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Diaz, Julio

2014-06-09

Periods of high temperature have been widely found to be associated with excess mortality but with variable relationships in different cities. How these specifics depend on climatic and other characteristics of cities is not well understood. We assess summer temperature-mortality relationships using data from 50 provincial capitals in Spain, during the period 1990-2004. Poisson time series regression analyses were applied to daily temperature and mortality data, adjusting for potential confounding seasonal factors. Associations of heat with mortality were summarised for each city as the risk increments at the 99th compared to the 90th percentiles of the whole-year temperature distributions, as predicted from spline curves. Risk increments averaged 14.6% between both centiles, or 3.3% per 1 Celsius degree. Although risk increments varied substantially between cities, the range of temperature from the 90th to 99th centile was the only characteristic independently significantly associated with them. The heat increment did not depend on other city climatic, socio-demographic and geographic determinants. Cities in Spain are partially adapted to high mean summer temperatures but not to high variation in summer temperatures.

Medieval monastic mortality: hazard analysis of mortality differences between monastic and nonmonastic cemeteries in England.

PubMed

DeWitte, Sharon N; Boulware, Jessica C; Redfern, Rebecca C

2013-11-01

Scholarship on life in medieval European monasteries has revealed a variety of factors that potentially affected mortality in these communities. Though there is some evidence based on age-at-death distributions from England that monastic males lived longer than members of the general public, what is missing from the literature is an explicit examination of how the risks of mortality within medieval monastic settings differed from those within contemporaneous lay populations. This study examines differences in the hazard of mortality for adult males between monastic cemeteries (n = 528) and non-monastic cemeteries (n = 368) from London, all of which date to between AD 1050 and 1540. Age-at-death data from all cemeteries are pooled to estimate the Gompertz hazard of mortality, and "monastic" (i.e., buried in a monastic cemetery) is modeled as a covariate affecting this baseline hazard. The estimated effect of the monastic covariate is negative, suggesting that individuals in the monastic communities faced reduced risks of dying compared to their peers in the lay communities. These results suggest better diets, the positive health benefits of religious behavior, better living conditions in general in monasteries, or selective recruitment of healthy or higher socioeconomic status individuals. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

How have changes in air bag designs affected frontal crash mortality?

PubMed

Braver, Elisa R; Shardell, Michelle; Teoh, Eric R

2010-07-01

To determine whether front air bag changes have affected occupant protection, frontal crash mortality rates were compared among front outboard occupants in vehicles having certified-advanced air bags (latest generation of air bags) or sled-certified air bags with and without advanced features. Poisson marginal structural models were used to calculate standardized mortality rate ratios (MRRs) for front occupants per registered vehicle. Vehicle age-corrected mortality rates were lower for drivers of vehicles having sled-certified air bags with advanced features than for drivers having sled-certified air bags without advanced features (MRR = 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81-0.95), including unbelted men and drivers younger than 60. The mortality rate was higher, though not statistically significant, for drivers having certified-advanced air bags compared with sled-certified air bags with advanced features (vehicle age-corrected MRR = 1.13; 95% CI: 0.97-1.32) and significantly higher for belted drivers (MRR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.04-1.39). Advanced air bag features appeared protective for some occupants. However, increased mortality rates among belted drivers of vehicles having certified-advanced air bags relative to those having sled-certified air bags with advanced features suggest that further study is needed to identify any potential problems with requirements for certification. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projection of ambient PM2.5 exposure in India and associated health burden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik; Smith, Kirk

2017-04-01

Ambient particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is the major criteria pollutant for health assessments of air quality. (WHO, 2006). Exposure to PM2.5 has potential health risks due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases leading to premature mortality. The annual premature mortality burden from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India is large ( 0.6-0.8 million). It is important to understand how the ambient PM2.5 concentration will change in future under the warming climate and how it translates into premature mortality, when the population distribution exposed to the pollution and baseline mortality are expected to change in response to changes in socio-economic condition to adapt to climate change impacts. We estimate ambient PM2.5 future (up to 2100) by adopting 2 approaches. In the first approach, PM2.5 is estimated as a product of AOD from the CMIP5 models (under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and the present day conversion factor estimated by the Geos-CHEM model as a function of present day meteorological conditions and emission. The second approach involves adding up all the PM2.5 components (SO4, NH4, BC, SOA, POA, a fraction of sea salt and dust) available from 13 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The change is represented in relative terms with respect to the baseline period PM2.5 exposure (2001-2005), when satellite data are available and the CMIP5 models are run in historical mode. The difference between these two approaches implies the role of meteorology in modulating PM2.5 exposure for future due to climate change. We present the decadal statistics and separate the role of meteorology from the combined role of meteorology and emission in modulating PM2.5 variability. We project premature mortality for future using population for future, projected under 5 SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios (definitions of these scenarios are provided in Table 1) developed by IIASA. The population under these five scenarios have varying capability to adapt and mitigate to cope up with the changing climate. We estimate premature mortality for two cases, (i) assuming BM to remain constant as of the present day, and (ii) modifying the BM as a function of gross development product. Relative risk is estimated using the IER function. Hence we develop customized scenarios for estimating premature death by linking projected PM2.5 under 2 RCP scenarios with population and baseline mortality from 5 SSP scenarios for each decade up to 2100, creating a total of 10 combined scenarios for each decade. We project that if baseline mortality remains as of present day (WHO 2011) then premature mortality increases up to the middle of the century and then decreases, but never decreases below the present day premature mortality, whereas if we assume that baseline mortality varies as a exponentially decaying function of GDP, premature mortality for future decades are projected to decrease below the present day estimate of premature mortality as GDP is projected to increase in all the 5 SSP scenarios. We further separate the effect of future meteorology, epidemiological changes and demographic changes in future on projected premature mortality. This study can help in the government in developing policies for future in order to avert the projected mortality and follow all the requirements that the best case scenario deserves in order to mitigate the effect of PM2.5 on mortality.

National mortality rates: the impact of inequality?

PubMed

Wilkinson, R G

1992-08-01

Although health is closely associated with income differences within each country there is, at best, only a weak link between national mortality rates and average income among the developed countries. On the other hand, there is evidence of a strong relationship between national mortality rates and the scale of income differences within each society. These three elements are coherent if health is affected less by changes in absolute material standards across affluent populations than it is by relative income or the scale of income differences and the resulting sense of disadvantage within each society. Rather than socioeconomic mortality differentials representing a distribution around given national average mortality rates, it is likely that the degree of income inequality indicates the burden of relative deprivation on national mortality rates.

Economic cycles and child mortality: A cross-national study of the least developed countries.

PubMed

Pérez-Moreno, Salvador; Blanco-Arana, María C; Bárcena-Martín, Elena

2016-09-01

This paper examines the effects of growth and recession periods on child mortality in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) during the period 1990-2010. We provide empirical evidence of uneven effects of variations in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita on the evolution of child mortality rate in periods of economic recession and expansion. A decrease in GDP per capita entails a significant rise in child mortality rates, whereas an increase does not affect child mortality significantly. In this context, official development assistance seems to play a crucial role in counteracting the increment in child mortality rates in recession periods, at least in those LDCs receiving greater aid. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early onset epilepsy is associated with increased mortality: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Moseley, Brian D.; Wirrell, Elaine C.; Wong-Kisiel, Lily C.; Nickels, Katherine

2013-01-01

SUMMARY We examined mortality in early onset (age <12 months) epilepsy in a population-based group of children. Children with early onset epilepsy were significantly more likely to die (case fatality, CF 8/60 versus 8/407, p<0.001; mortality rate, MR 14.5/1000 versus 2/1000 person years; standardized mortality ratio, SMR 22.25 versus 5.67). Mortality was greater in children with malignant neonatal (age <1 month) epilepsy (CF 4/12 versus 12/450, p<0.001; MR 54/1000 person years versus 2.7/1000 person year; SMR 46.55 versus 7.22). Given that only 1/8 early onset epilepsy deaths was seizure-related, mortality appears to be more affected by underlying etiology. PMID:23582606

A Questionnaire-Wide Association Study of Personality and Mortality: The Vietnam Experience Study

PubMed Central

Weiss, Alexander; Gale, Catharine R.; Batty, G. David; Deary, Ian J.

2013-01-01

Objective We examined the association between the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) and all-cause mortality in 4462 middle-aged Vietnam-era veterans. Methods We split the study population into half samples. In each half, we used proportional hazards (Cox) regression to test the 550 MMPI items’ associations with mortality over 15 years. In all participants, we subjected significant (p < .01) items in both halves to principal-components analysis (PCA). We used Cox regression to test whether these components predicted mortality when controlling for other predictors (demographics, cognitive ability, health behaviors, mental/physical health). Results Eighty-nine items were associated with mortality in both half-samples. PCA revealed Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity, Somatic Complaints, Psychotic/Paranoia, and Antisocial components, and a higher-order component, Personal Disturbance. Individually, Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity (HR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.39,1.72), Somatic Complaints (HR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.52,1.80), Psychotic/Paranoid (HR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.32,1.57), Antisocial (HR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.59,2.01), and Personal Disturbance (HR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.58,1.91) were associated with risk. Including covariates attenuated these associations (28.4 to 54.5%), though they were still significant. After entering Personal Disturbance into models with each component, Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity and Somatic Complaints were significant, although Neuroticism/Negative Affectivity’s were now protective (HR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.58,0.92). When the four components were entered together with or without covariates, Somatic Complaints and Antisocial were significant risk factors. Conclusions Somatic Complaints and Personal Disturbance are associated with increased mortality risk. Other components’ effects varied as a function of variables in the model. PMID:23731751

Drowning deaths between 1861 and 2000 in Victoria, Australia

PubMed Central

Ozanne-Smith, Joan

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To identify the long-term patterns of drowning mortality in the state of Victoria, Australia, and to describe the historical context in which the decrease occurred. Methods We obtained data on drowning deaths and population statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and its predecessors for the period 1861 to 2000. From these data, we calculated drowning death rates per 100 000 population per year, by gender and age. We reviewed primary and secondary historical resources, such as government and newspaper archives, books and the Internet, to identify changes or events in the state that may have affected drowning mortality. Findings From 1861 to 2000, at least 18 070 people drowned in Victoria. Male drowning rates were higher than those for females in all years and for all ages. Both sexes experienced the highest drowning rate in 1863 (79.5 male deaths per 100 000 population and 18.8 female death per 100 000 population). The lowest drowning rate was documented in 2000 (1.4 male deaths per 100 000 population and 0.3 female deaths per 100 000 population). The reduction patterns of drowning mortality occurred within a historical context of factors that directly affected drowning mortality, such as the improvement in people’s water safety skills, or those that incidentally affected drowning mortality, like infrastructure development. Conclusion We identified patterns of reduction in drowning mortality, both in males and females and across age groups. These patterns could be linked to events and factors that happened in Victoria during this period. These findings may have relevance to current developing communities. PMID:28250530

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Russell, Robin E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

2016-01-01

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans, disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity.

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat.

PubMed

Erickson, Richard A; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Russell, Robin E; Szymanski, Jennifer A

2016-01-01

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat ( Myotis sodalis ), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans , disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity.

Increased mortality among people with schizophrenia and other non-affective psychotic disorders in the community: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Oakley, Padraig; Kisely, Steve; Baxter, Amanda; Harris, Meredith; Desoe, Jocelyne; Dziouba, Alyona; Siskind, Dan

2018-07-01

There is increasing evidence of excess mortality in schizophrenia but less information on other non-affective psychoses. We therefore generated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for community-dwelling people with schizophrenia and other non-affective psychoses, relative to the general population, and examined changes to the SMR over time. We conducted a systematic review in which Pubmed, CINAHL, EMBASE, Google Scholar and PsycINFO were searched for publications that reported SMRs for all-cause mortality among community-dwelling people with schizophrenia and psychotic disorders. Meta-analyses of SMRs were conducted, pooled across genders and then separately by gender. Sub-group analyses were conducted for diagnostic group, global region, decade and risk of study bias. We were able to include 34 studies covering 1,724,906 participants. The gender pooled SMR for schizophrenia and psychotic disorders was 3.08 (95%CI 2.88-3.31). Schizophrenia and broader psychotic disorders had similar SMRs. Stratification by decade of observation suggests that the difference in SMR is not declining and may possibly be widening. Analyses showed high levels of heterogeneity. The appearance of a static or widening mortality gap over time between people with schizophrenia and psychotic disorders and the general population is of concern. However, whether it is an increase over time is unclear, as there are insufficient studies to confirm this. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physiological Responses in a Variable Environment: Relationships between Metabolism, Hsp and Thermotolerance in an Intertidal-Subtidal Species

PubMed Central

Wang, Qing-lin; Dong, Shuang-lin

2011-01-01

Physiological responses to temperature reflect the evolutionary adaptations of organisms to their thermal environment and the capability of animals to tolerate thermal stress. Contrary to conventional metabolism theory, increasing environmental temperatures have been shown to reduce metabolic rate in rocky–eulittoral-fringe species inhabiting highly variable environments, possibly as a strategy for energy conservation. To study the physiological adaptations of an intertidal-subtidal species to the extreme and unpredictable heat stress of the intertidal zone, oxygen consumption rate and heat shock protein expression were quantified in the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus. Using simulate natural temperatures, the relationship between temperature, physiological performance (oxygen consumption and heat shock proteins) and thermotolerance were assessed. Depression of oxygen consumption rate and upregulation of heat shock protein genes (hsps) occurred in sequence when ambient temperature was increased from 24 to 30°C. Large-scale mortality of the sea cucumber occurred when temperatures rose beyond 30°C, suggesting that the upregulation of heat shock proteins and mortality are closely related to the depression of aerobic metabolism, a phenomenon that is in line with the concept of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT). The physiologically-related thermotolerance of this sea cucumber should be an adaptation to its local environment. PMID:22022615

Parental effects alter the adaptive value of an adult behavioural trait.

PubMed

Kilner, Rebecca M; Boncoraglio, Giuseppe; Henshaw, Jonathan M; Jarrett, Benjamin J M; De Gasperin, Ornela; Attisano, Alfredo; Kokko, Hanna

2015-09-22

The parents' phenotype, or the environment they create for their young, can have long-lasting effects on their offspring, with profound evolutionary consequences. Yet, virtually no work has considered how such parental effects might change the adaptive value of behavioural traits expressed by offspring upon reaching adulthood. To address this problem, we combined experiments on burying beetles (Nicrophorus vespilloides) with theoretical modelling and focussed on one adult behavioural trait in particular: the supply of parental care. We manipulated the early-life environment and measured the fitness payoffs associated with the supply of parental care when larvae reached maturity. We found that (1) adults that received low levels of care as larvae were less successful at raising larger broods and suffered greater mortality as a result: they were low-quality parents. Furthermore, (2) high-quality males that raised offspring with low-quality females subsequently suffered greater mortality than brothers of equivalent quality, which reared larvae with higher quality females. Our analyses identify three general ways in which parental effects can change the adaptive value of an adult behavioural trait: by influencing the associated fitness benefits and costs; by consequently changing the evolutionary outcome of social interactions; and by modifying the evolutionarily stable expression of behavioural traits that are themselves parental effects.

Mortality Dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Immatures in Maize.

PubMed

Varella, Andrea Corrêa; Menezes-Netto, Alexandre Carlos; Alonso, Juliana Duarte de Souza; Caixeta, Daniel Ferreira; Peterson, Robert K D; Fernandes, Odair Aparecido

2015-01-01

We characterized the dynamics of mortality factors affecting immature developmental stages of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Multiple decrement life tables for egg and early larval stages of S. frugiperda in maize (Zea mays L.) fields were developed with and without augmentative releases of Telenomus remus Nixon (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae) from 2009 to 2011. Total egg mortality ranged from 73 to 81% and the greatest egg mortality was due to inviability, dislodgement, and predation. Parasitoids did not cause significant mortality in egg or early larval stages and the releases of T. remus did not increase egg mortality. Greater than 95% of early larvae died from predation, drowning, and dislodgment by rainfall. Total mortality due to these factors was largely irreplaceable. Results indicate that a greater effect in reducing generational survival may be achieved by adding mortality to the early larval stage of S. frugiperda.

Mortality Dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Immatures in Maize

PubMed Central

Varella, Andrea Corrêa; Menezes-Netto, Alexandre Carlos; Alonso, Juliana Duarte de Souza; Caixeta, Daniel Ferreira; Peterson, Robert K. D.; Fernandes, Odair Aparecido

2015-01-01

We characterized the dynamics of mortality factors affecting immature developmental stages of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Multiple decrement life tables for egg and early larval stages of S. frugiperda in maize (Zea mays L.) fields were developed with and without augmentative releases of Telenomus remus Nixon (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae) from 2009 to 2011. Total egg mortality ranged from 73 to 81% and the greatest egg mortality was due to inviability, dislodgement, and predation. Parasitoids did not cause significant mortality in egg or early larval stages and the releases of T. remus did not increase egg mortality. Greater than 95% of early larvae died from predation, drowning, and dislodgment by rainfall. Total mortality due to these factors was largely irreplaceable. Results indicate that a greater effect in reducing generational survival may be achieved by adding mortality to the early larval stage of S. frugiperda. PMID:26098422

Effects of three pesticides on the avoidance behavior of earthworms in laboratory tests performed under temperate and tropical conditions.

PubMed

Garcia, Marcos; Römbke, Jörg; de Brito, Marcus Torres; Scheffczyk, Adam

2008-05-01

Little research has been performed on the impact of pesticides on earthworms under tropical conditions. Taking into consideration the often-limited resources in tropical countries, simple screening tests are needed. Therefore, it was investigated whether three pesticides relevant for the Brazilian Amazon (benomyl, carbendazim, lambda-cyhalothrin) affect the avoidance behavior of the earthworm Eisenia fetida. The tests were performed for two days according to ISO guideline 17512 but were adapted to tropical conditions (i.e. test substrate, test organism and temperature). The results indicate that this test gives reproducible and reliable results. Toxicity values (NOEC, EC50) are lower than those determined in 14 day-acute mortality tests and are approximately in the same range such as those found in 56 day-chronic reproduction tests with the same earthworm species, which were performed in parallel. Therefore, the use of the earthworm avoidance tests is recommended as a screening tool for the risk assessment of pesticides.

Homicide death in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 2005.

PubMed

Outwater, Anne H; Campbell, Jacquelyn C; Mgaya, Edward; Abraham, Alison G; Kinabo, Linna; Kazaura, Method; Kub, Joan

2008-12-01

Violence disproportionately affects low- and middle-income countries. Deeper understanding is needed in areas where little research has occurred. The objectives of the study were to: (a) ascertain rate of homicide death; (b) describe the victims and circumstances surrounding their deaths in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania in 2005. This study was developed by adapting the WHO/CDC Injury Surveillance Guidelines (Holder et al., 2001). Data on 12 variables were collected on all homicide deaths. Descriptive statistics and hypothesis tests were done when appropriate. Age standardised, age-specific and cause-specific mortality rates are presented. The overall homicide rate was 12.57 (males and females respectively: 22.26 and 2.64). Homicide deaths were 93.4% male, mostly unemployed, with a mean age of 28.2 years. Most deaths occurred in urban areas. Mob violence was the cause of 57% of deaths. The risk of homicide death for males was greater than the world average, but for females it was less. Most homicides were committed by community members policing against thieves.

A multilevel structural equation modeling analysis of vulnerabilities and resilience resources influencing affective adaptation to chronic pain.

PubMed

Sturgeon, John A; Zautra, Alex J; Arewasikporn, Anne

2014-02-01

The processes of individual adaptation to chronic pain are complex and occur across multiple domains. We examined the social, cognitive, and affective context of daily pain adaptation in individuals with fibromyalgia and osteoarthritis. By using a sample of 260 women with fibromyalgia or osteoarthritis, we examined the contributions of pain catastrophizing, negative interpersonal events, and positive interpersonal events to daily negative and positive affect across 30days of daily diary data. Individual differences and daily fluctuations in predictor variables were estimated simultaneously by utilizing multilevel structural equation modeling techniques. The relationships between pain and negative and positive affect were mediated by stable and day-to-day levels of pain catastrophizing as well as day-to-day positive interpersonal events, but not negative interpersonal events. There were significant and independent contributions of pain catastrophizing and positive interpersonal events to adaptation to pain and pain-related affective dysregulation. These effects occur both between persons and within a person's everyday life. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical experiments to explain multiscale hydrological responses to mountain pine beetle tree mortality in a headwater watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penn, Colin A.; Bearup, Lindsay A.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Clow, David W.

2016-01-01

The effects of mountain pine beetle (MPB)-induced tree mortality on a headwater hydrologic system were investigated using an integrated physical modeling framework with a high-resolution computational grid. Simulations of MPB-affected and unaffected conditions, each with identical atmospheric forcing for a normal water year, were compared at multiple scales to evaluate the effects of scale on MPB-affected hydrologic systems. Individual locations within the larger model were shown to maintain hillslope-scale processes affecting snowpack dynamics, total evapotranspiration, and soil moisture that are comparable to several field-based studies and previous modeling work. Hillslope-scale analyses also highlight the influence of compensating changes in evapotranspiration and snow processes. Reduced transpiration in the Grey Phase of MPB-induced tree mortality was offset by increased late-summer evaporation, while overall snowpack dynamics were more dependent on elevation effects than MPB-induced tree mortality. At the watershed scale, unaffected areas obscured the magnitude of MPB effects. Annual water yield from the watershed increased during Grey Phase simulations by 11 percent; a difference that would be difficult to diagnose with long-term gage observations that are complicated by inter-annual climate variability. The effects on hydrology observed and simulated at the hillslope scale can be further damped at the watershed scale, which spans more life zones and a broader range of landscape properties. These scaling effects may change under extreme conditions, e.g., increased total MPB-affected area or a water year with above average snowpack.

Epipodial Tentacle Gene Expression and Predetermined Resilience to Summer Mortality in the Commercially Important Greenlip Abalone, Haliotis laevigata.

PubMed

Shiel, Brett P; Hall, Nathan E; Cooke, Ira R; Robinson, Nicholas A; Strugnell, Jan M

2017-04-01

"Summer mortality" is a phenomenon that occurs during warm water temperature spikes that results in the mass mortality of many ecologically and economically important mollusks such as abalone. This study aimed to determine whether the baseline gene expression of abalone before a laboratory-induced summer mortality event was associated with resilience to summer mortality. Tentacle transcriptomes of 35 greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) were sequenced prior to the animals being exposed to an increase in water temperature-simulating conditions which have previously resulted in summer mortality. Abalone derived from three source locations with different environmental conditions were categorized as susceptible or resistant to summer mortality depending on whether they died or survived after the water temperature was increased. We detected two genes showing significantly higher expression in resilient abalone relative to susceptible abalone prior to the laboratory-induced summer mortality event. One of these genes was annotated through the NCBI non-redundant protein database using BLASTX to an anemone (Exaiptasia pallida) Transposon Ty3-G Gag Pol polyprotein. Distinct gene expression signatures were also found between resilient and susceptible abalone depending on the population origin, which may suggest divergence in local adaptation mechanisms for resilience. Many of these genes have been suggested to be involved in antioxidant and immune-related functions. The identification of these genes and their functional roles have enhanced our understanding of processes that may contribute to summer mortality in abalone. Our study supports the hypothesis that prestress gene expression signatures are indicative of the likelihood of summer mortality.

How does variation in rainfall affect simulated tropical tree mortality, functional diversity and coexistence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, T.; Kueppers, L. M.; Koven, C.; Johnson, D. J.; Faybishenko, B.; McDowell, N. G.; Chambers, J. Q.

2016-12-01

Land surface models that include demographic and plant hydrodynamic processes are promising tools for characterizing how different drought scenarios may affect carbon cycling of tropical forests. The Ecosystem Demography (ED2) model, now formulated with such features, was used to evaluate how different drought scenarios affect mortality patterns, functional diversity and coexistence of four plant functional types (PFTs) of tropical trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The four PFTs simulated were early- versus late-successional groups subdivided into drought-tolerant versus -intolerant groups. The hydrodynamic formulation enables the four PFTs to compete mechanistically along two largely orthogonal resource gradients of water and light. The model simulations produced considerable differences in the aboveground biomass response to contrasting drying scenarios that included longer dry seasons, El Nino related droughts, and drier dry seasons. The emergent mortality dynamics reflect the physiological trade-off between water-use and carbon fixation formulated by the hydrodynamic regulation over stomatal conductance. During dry periods, the model predicts increased mortality rates of pioneer trees compared to generalists and drought-intolerant trees compared to -tolerant trees. The model also predicts that surviving cohorts in the smallest size classes of drought-intolerant trees are occasionally primed for release from competition following acute droughts. Observations at BCI showed increased mortality rates for large trees (i.e. >30 cm dbh) during the 1982 El Nino drought, but not subsequent El Nino related droughts. The causes of the elevated mortality rates are explored with the model. Coexistence of four plant functional types in the model is highly sensitive to the parameterization of stem hydraulic conductivity; but, surprisingly not very sensitive to shifts in rainfall patterns. These results demonstrate (a) that plant hydrodynamics are critical for simulating dynamic mortality patterns between drought-tolerant and -intolerant PFTs in order to increase representation of functional diversity in land surface models, and (b) that more demographic, plant hydraulic and deeper soil moisture observations are required to constrain hydrodynamic parameter selection.

Pathophysiology of cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure: signaling pathways and novel therapeutic targets.

PubMed

Tham, Yow Keat; Bernardo, Bianca C; Ooi, Jenny Y Y; Weeks, Kate L; McMullen, Julie R

2015-09-01

The onset of heart failure is typically preceded by cardiac hypertrophy, a response of the heart to increased workload, a cardiac insult such as a heart attack or genetic mutation. Cardiac hypertrophy is usually characterized by an increase in cardiomyocyte size and thickening of ventricular walls. Initially, such growth is an adaptive response to maintain cardiac function; however, in settings of sustained stress and as time progresses, these changes become maladaptive and the heart ultimately fails. In this review, we discuss the key features of pathological cardiac hypertrophy and the numerous mediators that have been found to be involved in the pathogenesis of cardiac hypertrophy affecting gene transcription, calcium handling, protein synthesis, metabolism, autophagy, oxidative stress and inflammation. We also discuss new mediators including signaling proteins, microRNAs, long noncoding RNAs and new findings related to the role of calcineurin and calcium-/calmodulin-dependent protein kinases. We also highlight mediators and processes which contribute to the transition from adaptive cardiac remodeling to maladaptive remodeling and heart failure. Treatment strategies for heart failure commonly include diuretics, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers and β-blockers; however, mortality rates remain high. Here, we discuss new therapeutic approaches (e.g., RNA-based therapies, dietary supplementation, small molecules) either entering clinical trials or in preclinical development. Finally, we address the challenges that remain in translating these discoveries to new and approved therapies for heart failure.

Feedback between environment and traits under selection in a seasonal environment: consequences for experimental evolution.

PubMed

Collot, Dorian; Nidelet, Thibault; Ramsayer, Johan; Martin, Olivier C; Méléard, Sylvie; Dillmann, Christine; Sicard, Delphine; Legrand, Judith

2018-04-11

Batch cultures are frequently used in experimental evolution to study the dynamics of adaptation. Although they are generally considered to simply drive a growth rate increase, other fitness components can also be selected for. Indeed, recurrent batches form a seasonal environment where different phases repeat periodically and different traits can be under selection in the different seasons. Moreover, the system being closed, organisms may have a strong impact on the environment. Thus, the study of adaptation should take into account the environment and eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Using data from an experimental evolution on yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae , we developed a mathematical model to understand which traits are under selection, and what is the impact of the environment for selection in a batch culture. We showed that two kinds of traits are under selection in seasonal environments: life-history traits, related to growth and mortality, but also transition traits, related to the ability to react to environmental changes. The impact of environmental conditions can be summarized by the length of the different seasons which weight selection on each trait: the longer a season is, the higher the selection on associated traits. Since phenotypes drive season length, eco-evolutionary feedbacks emerge. Our results show how evolution in successive batches can affect season lengths and strength of selection on different traits. © 2018 The Author(s).

Nutrition and human physiological adaptations to space flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lane, H. W.; LeBlanc, A. D.; Putcha, L.; Whitson, P. A.

1993-01-01

Space flight provides a model for the study of healthy individuals undergoing unique stresses. This review focuses on how physiological adaptations to weightlessness may affect nutrient and food requirements in space. These adaptations include reductions in body water and plasma volume, which affect the renal and cardiovascular systems and thereby fluid and electrolyte requirements. Changes in muscle mass and function may affect requirements for energy, protein and amino acids. Changes in bone mass lead to increased urinary calcium concentrations, which may increase the risk of forming renal stones. Space motion sickness may influence putative changes in gastro-intestinal-hepatic function; neurosensory alterations may affect smell and taste. Some or all of these effects may be ameliorated through the use of specially designed dietary countermeasures.

Assessment of the effect of visual impairment on mortality through multiple health pathways: structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Christ, Sharon L; Lee, David J; Lam, Byron L; Zheng, D Diane; Arheart, Kristopher L

2008-08-01

To estimate the direct effects of self-reported visual impairment (VI) on health, disability, and mortality and to estimate the indirect effects of VI on mortality through health and disability mediators. The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) is a population-based annual survey designed to be representative of the U.S. civilian noninstitutionalized population. The National Death Index of 135,581 NHIS adult participants, 18 years of age and older, from 1986 to 1996 provided the mortality linkage through 2002. A generalized linear structural equation model (GSEM) with latent variable was used to estimate the results of a system of equations with various outcomes. Standard errors and test statistics were corrected for weighting, clustering, and stratification. VI affects mortality, when direct adjustment was made for the covariates. Severe VI increases the hazard rate by a factor of 1.28 (95% CI: 1.07-1.53) compared with no VI, and some VI increases the hazard by a factor of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.07-1.20). VI also affects mortality indirectly through self-rated health and disability. The total effects (direct effects plus mediated effects) on the hazard of mortality of severe VI and some VI relative to no VI are hazard ratio (HR) 1.54 (95% CI: 1.28-1.86) and HR 1.23 (95% CI: 1.16-1.31), respectively. In addition to the direct link between VI and mortality, the effects of VI on general health and disability contribute to an increased risk of death. Ignoring the latter may lead to an underestimation of the substantive impact of VI on mortality.

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2016-06-22

For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends. We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%-1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%-2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%-1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05). We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

Race, Neighborhood Economic Status, Income Inequality and Mortality

PubMed Central

Mode, Nicolle A; Evans, Michele K; Zonderman, Alan B

2016-01-01

Mortality rates in the United States vary based on race, individual economic status and neighborhood. Correlations among these variables in most urban areas have limited what conclusions can be drawn from existing research. Our study employs a unique factorial design of race, sex, age and individual poverty status, measuring time to death as an objective measure of health, and including both neighborhood economic status and income inequality for a sample of middle-aged urban-dwelling adults (N = 3675). At enrollment, African American and White participants lived in 46 unique census tracts in Baltimore, Maryland, which varied in neighborhood economic status and degree of income inequality. A Cox regression model for 9-year mortality identified a three-way interaction among sex, race and individual poverty status (p = 0.03), with African American men living below poverty having the highest mortality. Neighborhood economic status, whether measured by a composite index or simply median household income, was negatively associated with overall mortality (p<0.001). Neighborhood income inequality was associated with mortality through an interaction with individual poverty status (p = 0.04). While racial and economic disparities in mortality are well known, this study suggests that several social conditions associated with health may unequally affect African American men in poverty in the United States. Beyond these individual factors are the influences of neighborhood economic status and income inequality, which may be affected by a history of residential segregation. The significant association of neighborhood economic status and income inequality with mortality beyond the synergistic combination of sex, race and individual poverty status suggests the long-term importance of small area influence on overall mortality. PMID:27171406

Mass mortality associated with koi herpesvirus in wild common carp in Canada.

PubMed

Garver, Kyle A; Al-Hussinee, Lowia; Hawley, Laura M; Schroeder, Tamara; Edes, Sandra; LePage, Veronique; Contador, Elena; Russell, Spencer; Lord, Stephen; Stevenson, Roselynn M W; Souter, Brian; Wright, Elizabeth; Lumsden, John S

2010-10-01

Koi herpesvirus (KHV) was identified as being associated with more than one mortality event affecting common carp in Canada. The first was an extensive mortality event that occurred in 2007 in the Kawartha Lakes region, Ontario, affecting Lakes Scugog and Pigeon. Fish had branchial necrosis and hepatic vasculitis with an equivocal interstitial nephritis. Several fish also had branchial columnaris. Subsequent mortality events occurred in 2008 in additional bodies of water in south-central Ontario, such as Lake Katchewanooka and outside of Ontario in Lake Manitoba, Manitoba. Koi herpesvirus was detected in fish submitted for examination from all of these lakes by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and sequence of the PCR product revealed 100% homology to KHV strains U and I. Real-time PCR analysis of KHV-infected wild carp revealed viral loads ranging from 6.02×10(1) to 2.4×10(6) copies μg(-1) host DNA. This is the first report of KHV in Canada.

Effects of Childhood and Middle-Adulthood Family Conditions on Later-Life Mortality: Evidence from the Utah Population Database, 1850-2002

PubMed Central

Mineau, Mineau P; Gilda, Garibotti; Kerber, Richard

2014-01-01

We examine how key early family circumstances affect mortality risks decades later. Early life conditions are measured by parental mortality, parental fertility (e.g., offspring sibship size, parental age at offspring birth), religious upbringing, and parental socioeconomic status. Prior to these early life conditions are familial and genetic factors that affect life-span. Accordingly, we consider the role of parental and familial longevity on adult mortality risks. We analyze the large Utah Population Database which contains a vast amount of genealogical and other vital/health data that contain full life histories of individuals and hundreds of their relatives. To control for unobserved heterogeneity, we analyze sib-pair data for 12,000 sib-pairs using frailty models. We found modest effects of key childhood conditions (birth order, sibship size, parental religiosity, parental SES, and parental death in childhood). Our measures of familial aggregation of longevity were large and suggest an alternative view of early life conditions. PMID:19278766

Acute inhibition of estradiol synthesis impacts vestibulo-ocular reflex adaptation and cerebellar long-term potentiation in male rats.

PubMed

Dieni, Cristina V; Ferraresi, Aldo; Sullivan, Jacqueline A; Grassi, Sivarosa; Pettorossi, Vito E; Panichi, Roberto

2018-03-01

The vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) adaptation is an ideal model for investigating how the neurosteroid 17 beta-estradiol (E2) contributes to the modification of behavior by regulating synaptic activities. We hypothesized that E2 impacts VOR adaptation by affecting cerebellar synaptic plasticity at the parallel fiber-Purkinje cell (PF) synapse. To verify this hypothesis, we investigated the acute effect of blocking E2 synthesis on gain increases and decreases in adaptation of the VOR in male rats using an oral dose (2.5 mg/kg) of the aromatase inhibitor letrozole. We also assessed the effect of letrozole on synaptic plasticity at the PF synapse in vitro, using cerebellar slices from male rats. We found that letrozole acutely impaired both gain increases and decreases adaptation of the VOR without altering basal ocular-motor performance. Moreover, letrozole prevented long-term potentiation at the PF synapse (PF-LTP) without affecting long-term depression (PF-LTD). Thus, in male rats neurosteroid E2 has a relevant impact on VOR adaptation and affects exclusively PF-LTP. These findings suggest that E2 might regulate changes in VOR adaptation by acting locally on cerebellar and extra-cerebellar synaptic plasticity sites.

Mortality and treatment patterns among patients hospitalized with acute cardiovascular conditions during dates of national cardiology meetings.

PubMed

Jena, Anupam B; Prasad, Vinay; Goldman, Dana P; Romley, John

2015-02-01

Thousands of physicians attend scientific meetings annually. Although hospital physician staffing and composition may be affected by meetings, patient outcomes and treatment patterns during meeting dates are unknown. To analyze mortality and treatment differences among patients admitted with acute cardiovascular conditions during dates of national cardiology meetings compared with nonmeeting dates. Retrospective analysis of 30-day mortality among Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, or cardiac arrest from 2002 through 2011 during dates of 2 national cardiology meetings compared with identical nonmeeting days in the 3 weeks before and after conferences (AMI, 8570 hospitalizations during 82 meeting days and 57,471 during 492 nonmeeting days; heart failure, 19,282 during meeting days and 11,4591 during nonmeeting days; cardiac arrest, 1564 during meeting days and 9580 during nonmeeting days). Multivariable analyses were conducted separately for major teaching hospitals and nonteaching hospitals and for low- and high-risk patients. Differences in treatment utilization were assessed. Hospitalization during cardiology meeting dates. Thirty-day mortality, procedure rates, charges, length of stay. Patient characteristics were similar between meeting and nonmeeting dates. In teaching hospitals, adjusted 30-day mortality was lower among high-risk patients with heart failure or cardiac arrest admitted during meeting vs nonmeeting dates (heart failure, 17.5% [95% CI, 13.7%-21.2%] vs 24.8% [95% CI, 22.9%-26.6%]; P < .001; cardiac arrest, 59.1% [95% CI, 51.4%-66.8%] vs 69.4% [95% CI, 66.2%-72.6%]; P = .01). Adjusted mortality for high-risk AMI in teaching hospitals was similar between meeting and nonmeeting dates (39.2% [95% CI, 31.8%-46.6%] vs 38.5% [95% CI, 35.0%-42.0%]; P = .86), although adjusted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) rates were lower during meetings (20.8% vs 28.2%; P = .02). No mortality or utilization differences existed for low-risk patients in teaching hospitals or high- or low-risk patients in nonteaching hospitals. In sensitivity analyses, cardiac mortality was not affected by hospitalization during oncology, gastroenterology, and orthopedics meetings, nor was gastrointestinal hemorrhage or hip fracture mortality affected by hospitalization during cardiology meetings. High-risk patients with heart failure and cardiac arrest hospitalized in teaching hospitals had lower 30-day mortality when admitted during dates of national cardiology meetings. High-risk patients with AMI admitted to teaching hospitals during meetings were less likely to receive PCI, without any mortality effect.

Assessing the Total Mortality Caused by Two Species of Trichogramma on Its Natural Host Plutella xylostella (L.) at Different Temperatures.

PubMed

Marchioro, C A; Krechemer, F S; Foerster, L A

2015-06-01

Trichogramma pretiosum Riley and Trichogramma atopovirilia Oatman & Platner are natural enemies of Plutella xylostella (L.) in Southern Brazil. Laboratory studies to evaluate parasitoids performance under different conditions, such as temperature regimes, are necessary to assess their potential as biocontrol agents of P. xylostella. In most studies involving Trichogramma, parasitism rate is the main parameter used to evaluate parasitoid performance, ignoring that parasitoids can cause egg mortality by feeding on the host content and/or to multiple drilling without laying eggs. This study was conducted to investigate three main issues: how temperature affects T. pretiosum and T.atopovirilia development on eggs of P. xylostella, whether or not these species respond differently to temperature, and how important is the mortality they cause besides parasitism on P. xylostella. Temperature effects (from 10 to 30°C) on development, survival, parasitism rate, mortality, and total mortality caused by T. pretiosum and T. atopovirilia on eggs of P. xylostella were evaluated. Temperature affected the development time, female longevity, parasitism rate, mortality not directly related to parasitoid larval development, and total mortality caused on the host. No significant differences were recorded for the estimated thermal requirements for T. pretiosum and T. atopovirilia. However, the higher mortality caused by T. pretiosum indicates that this parasitoid is the most suitable to be used against P. xylostella. Also, the results suggest that the use of parasitism rate as the only parameter to evaluate the performance of T. pretiosum and T. atopovirilia may underestimate the potential of these parasitoids in regulating pest populations.

The effects of price competition and reduced subsidies for uncompensated care on hospital mortality.

PubMed

Volpp, Kevin G M; Ketcham, Jonathan D; Epstein, Andrew J; Williams, Sankey V

2005-08-01

To determine whether hospital mortality rates changed in New Jersey after implementation of a law that changed hospital payment from a regulated system based on hospital cost to price competition with reduced subsidies for uncompensated care and whether changes in mortality rates were affected by hospital market conditions. State discharge data for New Jersey and New York from 1990 to 1996. Study Design. We used an interrupted time series design to compare risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates between states over time. We compared the effect sizes in markets with different levels of health maintenance organization penetration and hospital market concentration and tested the sensitivity of our results to different approaches to defining hospital markets. The study sample included all patients under age 65 admitted to New Jersey or New York hospitals with stroke, hip fracture, pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, congestive heart failure, hip fracture, or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Mortality among patients in New Jersey improved less than in New York by 0.4 percentage points among the insured (p=.07) and 0.5 percentage points among the uninsured (p=.37). There was a relative increase in mortality for patients with AMI, congestive heart failure, and stroke, especially for uninsured patients with these conditions, but not for patients with the other four conditions we studied. Less competitive hospital markets were significantly associated with a relative decrease in mortality among insured patients. Market-based reforms may adversely affect mortality for some conditions but it appears the effects are not universal. Insured patients in less competitive markets fared better in the transition to price competition.

Water Level Controls on Sap Flux of Canopy Species in Black Ash Wetlands

Treesearch

Joseph Shannon; Matthew Van Grinsven; Joshua Davis; Nicholas Bolton; Nam Noh; Thomas Pypker; Randall Kolka

2018-01-01

Black ash (Fraxinus nigra Marsh.) exhibits canopy dominance in regularly inundated wetlands, suggesting advantageous adaptation. Black ash mortality due to emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) will alter canopy composition and site hydrology. Retention of these forested wetlands requires understanding black ash...

Impaired functioning of immune defenses to infection in premature and term infants and their implications for vaccination.

PubMed

Baxter, David

2010-06-01

Newborn infants, particularly those born prematurely are at increased risk of infections, including vaccine preventable ones, resulting in an increased morbidity and mortality risk. Defects associated with higher mortality may involve external barriers and the innate and adaptive systems. The available evidence suggests a complex situation that ranges from pathogen/immunogen non-responsiveness to fully mature adult-equivalent functionality depending on both host and vaccine characteristics. This review considers potential qualitative and quantitative differences with respect to immune defences between premature/term infants and adults and evaluates implications of such differences for immunization outcomes.

Analysis of Environmental Issues Related to Small-Scale Hydroelectric Development IV: Fish Mortality Resulting From Turbine Passage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turbak, Susan C.; Reichle, Donna R.; Shriner, Carole R.

1981-01-01

The purpose of this report is to provide summary information for use by potential developers and regulators of small-scale hydroelectric projects (defined as existing dams that can be retrofitted to a total site capacity of ≤30 MW), where turbine-related mortality of fish is a potential issue affecting site-specific development. Mitigation techniques for turbine-related mortality are not covered in this report.

Growth and mortality of thinned knobcone x Monterey pine saplings affected by engraver beetles and a hard freeze

Treesearch

William W. Oliver

1979-01-01

Mortality and diameter growth loss were severe on study plots in a thinned plantation of 9-year-old trees. California five-spined engravers killed 15 percent of the trees and a hard freeze killed 20 percent of the survivors. Mortality was higher and subsequent diameter growth was lower in trees with most of their needles freeze-killed than in trees less severely...

Sunnier European countries have lower melanoma mortality.

PubMed

Shipman, A R; Clark, A B; Levell, N J

2011-07-01

Doubt has been cast on sunlight as the major causative factor for malignant melanoma. We performed statistical analysis of the average annual sunlight hours in 36 European capital cities compared with the country's melanoma mortality rate. A significant inverse proportionality was identified in both men and women, indicating that sun exposure is unlikely to be the strongest factor affecting mortality from malignant melanoma. © The Author(s). CED © 2011 British Association of Dermatologists.

Between Scylla and Charybdis: renegotiating resolution of the ‘obstetric dilemma’ in response to ecological change

PubMed Central

Wells, Jonathan C. K.

2015-01-01

Hominin evolution saw the emergence of two traits—bipedality and encephalization—that are fundamentally linked because the fetal head must pass through the maternal pelvis at birth, a scenario termed the ‘obstetric dilemma’. While adaptive explanations for bipedality and large brains address adult phenotype, it is brain and pelvic growth that are subject to the obstetric dilemma. Many contemporary populations experience substantial maternal and perinatal morbidity/mortality from obstructed labour, yet there is increasing recognition that the obstetric dilemma is not fixed and is affected by ecological change. Ecological trends may affect growth of the pelvis and offspring brain to different extents, while the two traits also differ by a generation in the timing of their exposure. Two key questions arise: how can the fit between the maternal pelvis and the offspring brain be ‘renegotiated’ as the environment changes, and what nutritional signals regulate this process? I argue that the potential for maternal size to change across generations precludes birthweight being under strong genetic influence. Instead, fetal growth tracks maternal phenotype, which buffers short-term ecological perturbations. Nevertheless, rapid changes in nutritional supply between generations can generate antagonistic influences on maternal and offspring traits, increasing the risk of obstructed labour. PMID:25602071

“I Was Relieved to Know That My Baby Was Safe”: Women’s Attitudes and Perceptions on Using a New Electronic Fetal Heart Rate Monitor during Labor in Tanzania

PubMed Central

Rivenes Lafontan, Sara; Sundby, Johanne; Ersdal, Hege L.; Abeid, Muzdalifat; Kidanto, Hussein L.; Mbekenga, Columba K.

2018-01-01

To increase labor monitoring and prevent neonatal morbidity and mortality, a new wireless, strap-on electronic fetal heart rate monitor called Moyo was introduced in Tanzania in 2016. As part of the ongoing evaluation of the introduction of the monitor, the aim of this study was to explore the attitudes and perceptions of women who had worn the monitor continuously during their most recent delivery and perceptions about how it affected care. This knowledge is important to identify barriers towards adaptation in order to introduce new technology more effectively. We carried out 20 semi-structured individual interviews post-labor at two hospitals in Tanzania. A thematic content analysis was used to analyze the data. Our results indicated that the use of the monitor positively affected the women’s birth experience. It provided much-needed reassurance about the wellbeing of the child. The women considered that wearing Moyo improved care due to an increase in communication and attention from birth attendants. However, the women did not fully understand the purpose and function of the device and overestimated its capabilities. This highlights the need to improve how and when information is conveyed to women in labor. PMID:29425167

Between Scylla and Charybdis: renegotiating resolution of the 'obstetric dilemma' in response to ecological change.

PubMed

Wells, Jonathan C K

2015-03-05

Hominin evolution saw the emergence of two traits-bipedality and encephalization-that are fundamentally linked because the fetal head must pass through the maternal pelvis at birth, a scenario termed the 'obstetric dilemma'. While adaptive explanations for bipedality and large brains address adult phenotype, it is brain and pelvic growth that are subject to the obstetric dilemma. Many contemporary populations experience substantial maternal and perinatal morbidity/mortality from obstructed labour, yet there is increasing recognition that the obstetric dilemma is not fixed and is affected by ecological change. Ecological trends may affect growth of the pelvis and offspring brain to different extents, while the two traits also differ by a generation in the timing of their exposure. Two key questions arise: how can the fit between the maternal pelvis and the offspring brain be 'renegotiated' as the environment changes, and what nutritional signals regulate this process? I argue that the potential for maternal size to change across generations precludes birthweight being under strong genetic influence. Instead, fetal growth tracks maternal phenotype, which buffers short-term ecological perturbations. Nevertheless, rapid changes in nutritional supply between generations can generate antagonistic influences on maternal and offspring traits, increasing the risk of obstructed labour. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Movement, migration, and smolting of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCormick, S.D.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Quinn, T.P.; Saunders, R.L.

1998-01-01

A variety of movements characterize the behavioral plasticity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in fresh water, including movements of fry from redds, establishment of feeding territories, spawning movements of sexually mature male parr, movement to and from winter habitat, and smolt migration in spring. Smolting is an adaptive specialization for downstream migration, seawater entry, and marine residence. While still in fresh water, smolts become silvery and streamlined, lose their positive rheotaxis and territoriality, and begin schooling. Physiological changes include increased salinity tolerance, olfactory sensitivity, metabolic rate, scope for growth, and altered hemoglobin and visual pigments. Through their impact on the neuroendocrine system, photoperiod and temperature regulate physiological changes, whereas temperature and water flow may initiate migration. Smolt survival is affected by a limited period of readiness (a physiological 'smolt window') and the timing of seawater entry with environmental conditions such as temperature, food, and predators (an ecological 'smolt window'). Smolt development is adversely affected by acidity, pollutants, and improper rearing conditions, and is often more sensitive than other life stages. Unfortunately, the migration corridor of smolts (mainstems of rivers and estuaries) are the most heavily impacted by pollution, dams, and other anthropogenic activities that may be directly lethal or increase mortality by delaying or inhibiting smolt migration.

The impacts of health, education, family planning and electrification programs on fertility, mortality and child schooling in East Java, Indonesia.

PubMed

Wirakartakusumah, M D

1988-06-01

This paper examines the effects of public health, family planning, education, electrification, and water supply programs on fertility, child mortality, and school enrollment decisions of rural households in East Java, Indonesia. The theoretical model assumes that parents maximize a utility function, subject to 1) a budget constraint that equates income with expenditures on children (including schooling and health inputs), and 2) a production function that relates health inputs to child survival possibilities. Public programs affect prices of contraceptives, schooling and health inputs, and environmental conditions that in turn affect child survival. Data are taken from the 1980 East Java Population Survey, the Socio-economic Survey, and the Detailed Village Census. The final sample consists of 3170 rural households with married women of childbearing age. Ordinary least squares and logit regressions of recent fertility, child mortality, and school enrollment on program and household variables yielded the following findings. 1) The presence of maternal and child health clinics reduced fertility but not mortality. 2) The presence of public health centers strongly reduced mortality but not fertility. 3) The presence of contraceptive distribution centers had no effect on fertility. 4) School attendance rates were influenced positively by the availability of primary and secondary schools. 5) Health and family planning programs had no effects on schooling. 6) The availability of public latrines reduced fertility and mortality. 7) The water supply variable did not affect the dependent variables when ordinary least squares techniques were applied but had statistically significant impact when logit methods were used. 8) Electricity supply had little effect on the dependent variables. 9) The mother's schooling had a strong positive correlation with children's schooling but no effect on fertility or mortality. 10) Household expenditures were related positively to school attendance and negatively to mortality. 11) There was little or no interaction between household variables and presence of government programs. 12) Subprovincial area measures of service availability appeared more appropriate for public health and family planning services, while village-level measures appeared more appropriate for schooling.

Effects of antimicrobial prophylaxis and blood stream infections in patients with acute liver failure: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Karvellas, Constantine J; Cavazos, Jorge; Battenhouse, Holly; Durkalski, Valerie; Balko, Jody; Sanders, Corron; Lee, William M

2014-11-01

We investigated whether antimicrobial prophylaxis alters the incidence of bloodstream infection in patients with acute liver failure (ALF), and whether bloodstream infections affect overall mortality within 21 days after development of ALF. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 1551 patients with ALF enrolled by the US Acute Liver Failure Study Group from January 1998 through November 2009. We analyzed data on infections in the first 7 days after admission and the effects of prophylaxis with antimicrobial drugs on the development of bloodstream infections and 21-day mortality. In our study population, 600 patients (39%) received antimicrobial prophylaxis and 226 patients (14.6%) developed at least 1 bloodstream infection. Exposure to antimicrobial drugs did not affect the proportion of patients who developed bloodstream infections (12.8% in patients with prophylaxis vs 15.7% in nonprophylaxed patients; P = .12), but a greater percentage of patients who received prophylaxis received liver transplants (28% vs 22%; P = .01). After adjusting for confounding factors, overall mortality within 21 days was associated independently with age (odds ratio [OR], 1.014), Model for End-stage Liver Disease score at admission (OR, 1.078), and vasopressor administration at admission (OR, 2.499). Low grade of coma (OR, 0.47) and liver transplantation (OR, 0.101) reduced mortality. Although bloodstream infection was associated significantly with 21-day mortality (P = .004), an interaction between bloodstream infection and etiology was detected: blood stream infection affected mortality to a greater extent in nonacetaminophen ALF patients (OR, 2.03) than in acetaminophen ALF patients (OR, 1.14). Based on a large, observational study, antimicrobial prophylaxis does not reduce the incidence of bloodstream infection or mortality within 21 days of ALF. However, bloodstream infections were associated with increased 21-day mortality in patients with ALF-to a greater extent in patients without than with acetaminophen-associated ALF. Our findings do not support the routine use of antimicrobial prophylaxis in patients with ALF. Copyright © 2014 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Landscape-scale consequences of differential tree mortality from catastrophic wind disturbance in the Amazon.

PubMed

Rifai, Sami W; Urquiza Muñoz, José D; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I; Ramírez Arévalo, Fredy R; Tello-Espinoza, Rodil; Vanderwel, Mark C; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Chambers, Jeffrey Q; Bohlman, Stephanie A

2016-10-01

Wind disturbance can create large forest blowdowns, which greatly reduces live biomass and adds uncertainty to the strength of the Amazon carbon sink. Observational studies from within the central Amazon have quantified blowdown size and estimated total mortality but have not determined which trees are most likely to die from a catastrophic wind disturbance. Also, the impact of spatial dependence upon tree mortality from wind disturbance has seldom been quantified, which is important because wind disturbance often kills clusters of trees due to large treefalls killing surrounding neighbors. We examine (1) the causes of differential mortality between adult trees from a 300-ha blowdown event in the Peruvian region of the northwestern Amazon, (2) how accounting for spatial dependence affects mortality predictions, and (3) how incorporating both differential mortality and spatial dependence affect the landscape level estimation of necromass produced from the blowdown. Standard regression and spatial regression models were used to estimate how stem diameter, wood density, elevation, and a satellite-derived disturbance metric influenced the probability of tree death from the blowdown event. The model parameters regarding tree characteristics, topography, and spatial autocorrelation of the field data were then used to determine the consequences of non-random mortality for landscape production of necromass through a simulation model. Tree mortality was highly non-random within the blowdown, where tree mortality rates were highest for trees that were large, had low wood density, and were located at high elevation. Of the differential mortality models, the non-spatial models overpredicted necromass, whereas the spatial model slightly underpredicted necromass. When parameterized from the same field data, the spatial regression model with differential mortality estimated only 7.5% more dead trees across the entire blowdown than the random mortality model, yet it estimated 51% greater necromass. We suggest that predictions of forest carbon loss from wind disturbance are sensitive to not only the underlying spatial dependence of observations, but also the biological differences between individuals that promote differential levels of mortality. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brodie, Jedediah; Johnson, Heather; Mitchell, Michael; Zager, Peter; Proffitt, Kelly; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kauffman, Matthew; Johnson, Bruce; Bissonette, John; Bishop, Chad; Gude, Justin; Herbert, Jeff; Hersey, Kent R.; Hurley, Mark; Lukacs, Paul M.; McCorquodale, Scott; McIntire, Eliot; Nowak, Josh; Sawyer, Hall; Smith, Douglas; White, P.J.

2013-01-01

Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America.

What is happening to health in the economic downturn? A view of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal.

PubMed

Nogueira, Helena

2016-01-01

The economic downturn has introduced new social risks in the most affected countries with foreseeable negative consequences for health. To analyse changes in health and its socioeconomic inequalities between 2001-2011 in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA), Portugal. This study, conducted in the LMA neighbourhoods (n = 207), examines the association between deprivation and premature mortality using standardised premature mortality ratios and a composite index of socioeconomic deprivation. The association was observed by analysing the whole range of values, quintiles and deciles of the LMA population. Pearson coefficients and ANOVA were used to assess associations and variability between quintiles/deciles. The findings show that people living in extreme deprivation conditions increased (5.45%) and that increasing deprivation is associated with health degradation in specific groups. Between 2001-2011, premature mortality became more unequally distributed, increasing in the richest (1%) and median (12%) areas, even though socioeconomic inequalities in mortality decreased. Health degradation is selective, affecting mainly the middle class living in LMA; these 'newly deprived' people experience an increased risk, while the 'traditionally deprived' show no decrease in premature mortality. Therefore, social inequalities in health tend to decrease, but without health gains.

Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe.

PubMed

Ballester, Joan; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François Richard; Rodó, Xavier

2011-06-21

The steady increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is inducing a detectable rise in global temperatures. The sensitivity of human societies to warming temperatures is, however, a transcendental question not comprehensively addressed to date. Here we show the link between temperature, humidity and daily numbers of deaths in nearly 200 European regions, which are subsequently used to infer transient projections of mortality under state-of-the-art high-resolution greenhouse gas scenario simulations. Our analyses point to a change in the seasonality of mortality, with maximum monthly incidence progressively shifting from winter to summer. The results also show that the rise in heat-related mortality will start to completely compensate the reduction of deaths from cold during the second half of the century, amounting to an average drop in human lifespan of up 3-4 months in 2070-2100. Nevertheless, projections suggest that human lifespan might indeed increase if a substantial degree of adaptation to warm temperatures takes place.

Online social integration is associated with reduced mortality risk.

PubMed

Hobbs, William R; Burke, Moira; Christakis, Nicholas A; Fowler, James H

2016-11-15

Social interactions increasingly take place online. Friendships and other offline social ties have been repeatedly associated with human longevity, but online interactions might have different properties. Here, we reference 12 million social media profiles against California Department of Public Health vital records and use longitudinal statistical models to assess whether social media use is associated with longer life. The results show that receiving requests to connect as friends online is associated with reduced mortality but initiating friendships is not. Additionally, online behaviors that indicate face-to-face social activity (like posting photos) are associated with reduced mortality, but online-only behaviors (like sending messages) have a nonlinear relationship, where moderate use is associated with the lowest mortality. These results suggest that online social integration is linked to lower risk for a wide variety of critical health problems. Although this is an associational study, it may be an important step in understanding how, on a global scale, online social networks might be adapted to improve modern populations' social and physical health.

Online social integration is associated with reduced mortality risk

PubMed Central

Hobbs, William R.; Burke, Moira; Christakis, Nicholas A.; Fowler, James H.

2016-01-01

Social interactions increasingly take place online. Friendships and other offline social ties have been repeatedly associated with human longevity, but online interactions might have different properties. Here, we reference 12 million social media profiles against California Department of Public Health vital records and use longitudinal statistical models to assess whether social media use is associated with longer life. The results show that receiving requests to connect as friends online is associated with reduced mortality but initiating friendships is not. Additionally, online behaviors that indicate face-to-face social activity (like posting photos) are associated with reduced mortality, but online-only behaviors (like sending messages) have a nonlinear relationship, where moderate use is associated with the lowest mortality. These results suggest that online social integration is linked to lower risk for a wide variety of critical health problems. Although this is an associational study, it may be an important step in understanding how, on a global scale, online social networks might be adapted to improve modern populations’ social and physical health. PMID:27799553

Community-Based Adaptation To A Changing Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This resource discusses how climate change is affecting community services, presents sample adaptation strategies, gives examples of successful community adaptation actions, and provides links to other key federal resources.

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2010-01-01

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

Evaluation of Acute Aortic Dissection Type a Factors and Comparison the Postoperative Clinical Outcomes between Two Surgical Methods.

PubMed

Shemirani, Hasan; Mirmohamadsadeghi, Amir; Mahaki, Behzad; Farhadi, Sadaf; Badalabadi, Reza Mohseni; Bidram, Peyman; Badalabadi, Mehdi Mohseni

2017-01-01

Although aortic dissection is a rare disease, it causes high level of mortality. If ascending aorta gets involved in this disease, it is known as type A. According to small number of studies about this disease in Iran, this study conducted to detect the factors related to acute aortic dissection type A, its surgery consequences and the factors affecting them. In this historical cohort study, all patients having acute aortic dissection type A referring to Chamran Hospital from 2006 to 2012 were studied. The impact of two surgical methods including antegrade cerebral perfusion (ACP) and retrograde cerebral one (RCP) on surgical and long-term mortality and recurrence of dissection was determined. The relation of mortality rate and hemodynamic instability before surgery, age more than 70 years old, ejection fraction lower than 50%, prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass pump (CPBP) time and excessive blood transfusion, was assessed. Surgery and long-term mortality and recurrence of dissection were 35.3%, 30.8% and 30.4%. Surgical and long-term death in the patients being operated by ACP method was lower than those one being operated by RCP ( P < 0.001). Excessive blood transfusion and unstable hemodynamic condition had significant effect on surgical mortality ( P = 0.014, 0.030, respectively). CPBP time and unstable hemodynamic condition affected long-term mortality significantly ( P = 0.002). The result found that ACP is the preferable kind of surgery in comparison with RCP according to the surgical and long-term mortality.

[Factors affecting infant mortality (author's transl)].

PubMed

Chackiel, J

1982-04-01

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the differentials and detect factors affecting infant mortality on the basis of data obtained from the fertility surveys from those countries participating in the World Fertility Survey. In particular, this includes the surveys carried out in Colombia, Peru, Costa Rica, Panama, and the Dominican Republic. 3 types of explanatory variables may be considered from the information available: 1) context variables related to the mother's environment; 2) socioeconomic variables based on the educational and economic characteristics of the mother and her last husband; and 3) biological factors (from each woman's pregnancy history) such as mother's age at birth of the child, order of birth, interbirth interval, etc. The countries, whether high or low mortality, present great differences in child mortality in most of the variables considered. In Panama and Costa Rica there are population sectors with infant mortality rates of around 100/1000 live births, whereas in Peru these are over 150/1000 (children from mothers without education, low agricultural strata, etc.). Besides presenting the differentials, a methodological test is made through the application to Costa Rica and Peru of the Proportional Hazards Model which permits analysis of the effects of variables when acting simultaneously upon mortality in early childhood. The variables which show the highest disparity in mortality level are: natural region among the context variables, education of mother among the socioeconomic variables, and interbirth interval and maternal age at birth of their children among the biological ones.

Intra-population variability of ocean acidification impacts on the physiology of Baltic blue mussels (Mytilus edulis): integrating tissue and organism response.

PubMed

Stapp, L S; Thomsen, J; Schade, H; Bock, C; Melzner, F; Pörtner, H O; Lannig, G

2017-05-01

Increased maintenance costs at cellular, and consequently organism level, are thought to be involved in shaping the sensitivity of marine calcifiers to ocean acidification (OA). Yet, knowledge of the capacity of marine calcifiers to undergo metabolic adaptation is sparse. In Kiel Fjord, blue mussels thrive despite periodically high seawater PCO 2 , making this population interesting for studying metabolic adaptation under OA. Consequently, we conducted a multi-generation experiment and compared physiological responses of F1 mussels from 'tolerant' and 'sensitive' families exposed to OA for 1 year. Family classifications were based on larval survival; tolerant families settled at all PCO 2 levels (700, 1120, 2400 µatm) while sensitive families did not settle at the highest PCO 2 (≥99.8% mortality). We found similar filtration rates between family types at the control and intermediate PCO 2 level. However, at 2400 µatm, filtration and metabolic scope of gill tissue decreased in tolerant families, indicating functional limitations at the tissue level. Routine metabolic rates (RMR) and summed tissue respiration (gill and outer mantle tissue) of tolerant families were increased at intermediate PCO 2 , indicating elevated cellular homeostatic costs in various tissues. By contrast, OA did not affect tissue and routine metabolism of sensitive families. However, tolerant mussels were characterised by lower RMR at control PCO 2 than sensitive families, which had variable RMR. This might provide the energetic scope to cover increased energetic demands under OA, highlighting the importance of analysing intra-population variability. The mechanisms shaping such difference in RMR and scope, and thus species' adaptation potential, remain to be identified.

Effect of a care plan based on Roy adaptation model biological dimension on stroke patients' physiologic adaptation level.

PubMed

Alimohammadi, Nasrollah; Maleki, Bibi; Shahriari, Mohsen; Chitsaz, Ahmad

2015-01-01

Stroke is a stressful event with several functional, physical, psychological, social, and economic problems that affect individuals' different living balances. With coping strategies, patients try to control these problems and return to their natural life. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of a care plan based on Roy adaptation model biological dimension on stroke patients' physiologic adaptation level. This study is a clinical trial in which 50 patients, affected by brain stroke and being admitted in the neurology ward of Kashani and Alzahra hospitals, were randomly assigned to control and study groups in Isfahan in 2013. Roy adaptation model care plan was administered in biological dimension in the form of four sessions and phone call follow-ups for 1 month. The forms related to Roy adaptation model were completed before and after intervention in the two groups. Chi-square test and t-test were used to analyze the data through SPSS 18. There was a significant difference in mean score of adaptation in physiological dimension in the study group after intervention (P < 0.001) compared to before intervention. Comparison of the mean scores of changes of adaptation in the patients affected by brain stroke in the study and control groups showed a significant increase in physiological dimension in the study group by 47.30 after intervention (P < 0.001). The results of study showed that Roy adaptation model biological dimension care plan can result in an increase in adaptation in patients with stroke in physiological dimension. Nurses can use this model for increasing patients' adaptation.

National mortality rates: the impact of inequality?

PubMed Central

Wilkinson, R G

1992-01-01

Although health is closely associated with income differences within each country there is, at best, only a weak link between national mortality rates and average income among the developed countries. On the other hand, there is evidence of a strong relationship between national mortality rates and the scale of income differences within each society. These three elements are coherent if health is affected less by changes in absolute material standards across affluent populations than it is by relative income or the scale of income differences and the resulting sense of disadvantage within each society. Rather than socioeconomic mortality differentials representing a distribution around given national average mortality rates, it is likely that the degree of income inequality indicates the burden of relative deprivation on national mortality rates. PMID:1636827

Mortality in Subalpine Forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA: Differential Response of Pines (Pinus albicaulis and P. flexilis) to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, C. I.; Westfall, R. D.; Delany, D. L.

2010-12-01

Widespread forest mortality in high-elevation forests has been increasing across western North American mountains in recent years, with climate, insects, and disease the primary causes. Subalpine forests in the eastern Sierra Nevada, by contrast, have experienced far less mortality than other ranges, and mortality events have been patchy and episodic. This situation, and lack of significant effect of non-native white-pine blister rust, enable investigation of fine-scale response of two subalpine Sierran species, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis, PiAl) and limber pine (P. flexilis, PiFl), to climate variability. We report similarities and differences between the two major mortality events in these pines in the last 150 years: 1988-1992 for PiFl and 2006-ongoing for PiAl. In both species, the events occurred within monotypic, closed-canopy, relatively young stands (< 200 yrs PiAl, < 300 yrs in PiFl); were localized to central-eastern Sierra Nevada; and occurred at 2740-2840 m along the eastern edge of the escarpment on north/northeast aspects with slopes > 40%. Mortality patches averaged 40-80 ha in both species, with mean stand mortality of trees > 10 cm diameter 91% in PiAl and 60% in PiFl. The ultimate cause of tree death was mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in both species, with increasing 20th/21st C minimum temperatures combined with drought the pre-conditioning factors. Overall growth in the past 150 years suggests that PiFl is more drought hardy than PiAl but responds sensitively to the combined effects of drought and increasing warmth. After the 1988-1992 drought, surviving PiFl recovered growth. PiAl trees grew very poorly during that drought, and continued poor growth in the years until 2006 when the mortality event occurred in PiAl. A significant species effect is the apparent difference in levels of within-stand genetic diversity for climate factors. Differential growth between 19th C (cool, wet) and 20th/21st C (warming, drying) of PiFl trees that died versus survivors indicates that considerable within-stand genetic diversity for climate existed in PiFl. For PiFl, the late 20th C mortality event acted as strong natural selection to improve within-stand fitness for warmer and drier conditions. PiFl trees that survived the 1988-1992 drought remained healthy through subsequent droughts, including the drought that is currently causing PiAl mortality. By contrast, the PiAl stands do not appear to have contained adaptive genetic diversity for drought and warmth, and PiAl trees growth behavior over the past 150 years was similar in pattern to the PiFl trees that died. As a result, the mortality event in PiAl is creating forest openings, with unknown future stand conditions, rather than rapid within-species adaptation that occurred in PiFl.

Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon

PubMed Central

Galanaud, Pierre; Galanaud, Anne; Giraudoux, Patrick

2015-01-01

Objectives This work was designed to adapt Geographical Information System-based spatial analysis to the study of historical epidemics. We mapped "plague" deaths during three epidemics of the early 15th century, analyzed spatial distributions by applying the Kulldorff's method, and determined their relationships with the distribution of socio-professional categories in the city of Dijon. Materials and Methods Our study was based on a database including 50 annual tax registers (established from 1376 to 1447) indicating deaths and survivors among the heads of households, their home location, tax level and profession. The households of the deceased and survivors during 6 years with excess mortality were individually located on a georeferenced medieval map, established by taking advantage of the preserved geography of the historical center of Dijon. We searched for clusters of heads of households characterized by shared tax levels (high-tax payers, the upper decile; low-tax payers, the half charged at the minimum level) or professional activities and for clusters of differential mortality. Results High-tax payers were preferentially in the northern intramural part, as well as most wealthy or specialized professionals, whereas low-tax payers were preferentially in the southern part. During two epidemics, in 1400–1401 and 1428, areas of higher mortality were found in the northern part whereas areas of lower mortality were in the southern one. A high concentration of housing and the proximity to food stocks were common features of the most affected areas, creating suitable conditions for rats to pullulate. A third epidemic, lasting from 1438 to 1440 had a different and evolving geography: cases were initially concentrated around the southern gate, at the confluence of three rivers, they were then diffuse, and ended with residual foci of deaths in the northern suburb. Conclusion Using a selected historical source, we designed an approach allowing spatial analysis of urban medieval epidemics. Our results fit with the view that the 1400–1401 epidemic was a Black Death recurrence. They suggest that this was also the case in 1428, whereas in 1438–1440 a different, possibly waterborne, disease was involved. PMID:26625117

Adaptive consequences of human-mediated introgression for indigenous tree species: the case of a relict Pinus pinaster population.

PubMed

Ramírez-Valiente, José Alberto; Robledo-Arnuncio, Juan José

2014-12-01

Human-induced gene movement via afforestation and restoration programs is a widespread phenomenon throughout the world. However, its effects on the genetic composition of native populations have received relatively little attention, particularly in forest trees. Here, we examine to what extent gene flow from allochthonous plantations of Pinus pinaster Aiton impacts offspring performance in a neighboring relict natural population and discuss the potential consequences for the long-term genetic composition of the latter. Specifically, we conducted a greenhouse experiment involving two contrasting watering treatments to test for differences in a set of functional traits and mortality rates between P. pinaster progenies from three different parental origins: (i) local native parents, (ii) exotic parents and (iii) intercrosses between local mothers and exotic fathers (intraspecific hybrids). Our results showed differences among crosses in cumulative mortality over time: seedlings of exotic parents exhibited the lowest mortality rates and seedlings of local origin the highest, while intraspecific hybrids exhibited an intermediate response. Linear regressions showed that seedlings with higher water-use efficiency (WUE, δ(13)C) were more likely to survive under drought stress, consistent with previous findings suggesting that WUE has an important role under dry conditions in this species. However, differences in mortality among crosses were only partially explained by WUE. Other non-measured traits and factors such as inbreeding depression in the relict population are more likely to explain the lower performance of native progenies. Overall, our results indicated that intraspecific hybrids and exotic individuals are more likely to survive under stressful conditions than local native individuals, at least during the first year of development. Since summer drought is the most important demographic and selective filter affecting tree establishment in Mediterranean ecosystems, a potential early selective advantage of exotic and hybrid genotypes would enhance initial steps of introgression of non-native genes into the study relict population of P. pinaster. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

NO REDUCTION IN GENETIC DIVERSITY DESPITE RAPID ADAPTATION TO PCB POLLUTION: IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION OF LARGE ESTUARINE POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic stressors can have negative fitness impacts on populations by reducing population size through direct mortality or reduced reproduction. Evolutionary consequences of pollutants are inevitable if genetic diversity and structure is changed as a result of these impact...

NO REDUCTION IN GENETIC DIVERSITY DESPITE RAPID ADAPTATION IN PCB POLLUTION: IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION OF LARGE ESTUARINE POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic stressors can have negative fitness impacts on populations by reducing population size through direct mortality or reduced reproduction. Evolutionary consequences of pollutants are inevitable if genetic diversity and structure are changed as a result of these impac...

INCREASED MORTALITY ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-WATER EXPOSURE IN INNER MONGOLIA, CHINA

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted a retrospective mortality and morbidity study in the Inner Mongolia region of China to evaluate health effects associated with arsenic exposure. The village we studied has been affected by arsenic contaminated well water since the 1980s. A complete census of the vil...

Bark beetle-caused mortality in a drought-affected ponderosa pine landscape in Arizona, USA

Treesearch

Jose F. Negron; Joel D. McMillin; John A. Anhold; Dave Coulson

2009-01-01

Extensive ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) mortality associated with a widespread severe drought and increased bark beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) populations occurred in Arizona from 2001 to 2004. A complex of Ips beetles including: the Arizona fivespined ips, Ips lecontei Swaine...

Pre-epidemic mortality rates for common Phytophthora ramorum host tree species in California

Treesearch

T.M. Barrett

2006-01-01

Understanding the impacts of Phytophthora ramorum on forests will require knowledge of pre-disease distribution, abundance, and rates of change for affected species. This study estimated pre-epidemic mortality rates for nine common host tree species: bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum), California bay laurel (Umbellularia...

Effects of hemlock mortality on streams in the southern Appalachian mountains

Treesearch

J.R. Webster; K. Morkeski; C.A. Wojculewski; B.R. Niederlehner; E.F. Benfield; K.J. Elliott

2012-01-01

The death of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) trees in response to infestation by the introduced hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae)may affect ecosystem processes and structure of streams. Prior to hemlock mortality,we documented the condition so feight small streams and their associated riparian forests within the...

Pregnancy as a cardiac stress model

PubMed Central

Chung, Eunhee; Leinwand, Leslie A.

2014-01-01

Cardiac hypertrophy occurs during pregnancy as a consequence of both volume overload and hormonal changes. Both pregnancy- and exercise-induced cardiac hypertrophy are generally thought to be similar and physiological. Despite the fact that there are shared transcriptional responses in both forms of cardiac adaptation, pregnancy results in a distinct signature of gene expression in the heart. In some cases, however, pregnancy can induce adverse cardiac events in previously healthy women without any known cardiovascular disease. Peripartum cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of non-obstetric mortality during pregnancy. To understand how pregnancy can cause heart disease, it is first important to understand cardiac adaptation during normal pregnancy. This review provides an overview of the cardiac consequences of pregnancy, including haemodynamic, functional, structural, and morphological adaptations, as well as molecular phenotypes. In addition, this review describes the signalling pathways responsible for pregnancy-induced cardiac hypertrophy and angiogenesis. We also compare and contrast cardiac adaptation in response to disease, exercise, and pregnancy. The comparisons of these settings of cardiac hypertrophy provide insight into pregnancy-associated cardiac adaptation. PMID:24448313

Thermally tolerant corals have limited capacity to acclimatize to future warming.

PubMed

Rodolfo-Metalpa, Riccardo; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Rottier, Cécile; Ramos-Esplá, Alfonso; Baker, Andrew C; Fine, Maoz; Ferrier-Pagès, Christine

2014-10-01

Thermal stress affects organism performance differently depending on the ambient temperature to which they are acclimatized, which varies along latitudinal gradients. This study investigated whether differences in physiological responses to temperature are consistent with regional differences in temperature regimes for the stony coral Oculina patagonica. To resolve this question, we experimentally assessed how colonies originating from four different locations characterized by >3 °C variation in mean maximum annual temperature responded to warming from 20 to 32 °C. We assessed plasticity in symbiont identity, density, and photosynthetic properties, together with changes in host tissue biomass. Results show that, without changes in the type of symbiont hosted by coral colonies, O. patagonica has limited capacity to acclimatize to future warming. We found little evidence of variation in overall thermal tolerance, or in thermal optima, in response to spatial variation in ambient temperature. Given that the invader O. patagonica is a relatively new member of the Mediterranean coral fauna, our results also suggest that coral populations may need to remain isolated for a long period of time for thermal adaptation to potentially take place. Our study indicates that for O. patagonica, mortality associated with thermal stress manifests primarily through tissue breakdown under moderate but prolonged warming (which does not impair symbiont photosynthesis and, therefore, does not lead to bleaching). Consequently, projected global warming is likely to cause repeat incidents of partial and whole colony mortality and might drive a gradual range contraction of Mediterranean corals. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cigarette Smoke Exposure Exacerbates Lung Inflammation and Compromises Immunity to Bacterial Infection

PubMed Central

Lugade, Amit A.; Bogner, Paul N.; Thatcher, Thomas H.; Sime, Patricia J.; Phipps, Richard P.; Thanavala, Yasmin

2014-01-01

The detrimental impact of tobacco on human health is clearly recognized and despite aggressive efforts to prevent smoking, close to one billion individuals worldwide continue to smoke. People with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are susceptible to recurrent respiratory infections with pathogens, including non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHI), yet the reasons for this increased susceptibility are poorly understood. As mortality rapidly increases with multiple exacerbations, development of protective immunity is critical to improving patient survival. Acute NTHI infection has been studied in the context of cigarette smoke exposure, but this is the first study to investigate chronic infection and the generation of adaptive immune responses to NTHI following chronic smoke exposure. After chronic NTHI infection, mice that had previously been exposed to cigarette smoke developed increased lung inflammation and compromised adaptive immunity relative to air-exposed controls. Importantly, NTHI-specific T cells from mice exposed to cigarette smoke produced lower levels of IFN-γ and IL-4, and B cells produced reduced levels of antibodies against outer membrane lipoprotein P6, with impaired IgG1, IgG2a and IgA class-switching. However, production of IL-17, which is associated with neutrophilic inflammation, was enhanced. Interestingly, cigarette smoke exposed mice exhibited a similar defect in the generation of adaptive immunity following immunization with P6. Our study has conclusively demonstrated that cigarette smoke exposure has a profound suppressive effect on the generation of adaptive immune responses to NTHI and suggests the mechanism by which prior cigarette smoke exposure predisposes COPD patients to recurrent infections, leading to exacerbations and contributing to mortality. PMID:24752444

Adaptive Virtual Reality Training to Optimize Military Medical Skills Acquisition and Retention.

PubMed

Siu, Ka-Chun; Best, Bradley J; Kim, Jong Wook; Oleynikov, Dmitry; Ritter, Frank E

2016-05-01

The Department of Defense has pursued the integration of virtual reality simulation into medical training and applications to fulfill the need to train 100,000 military health care personnel annually. Medical personnel transitions, both when entering an operational area and returning to the civilian theater, are characterized by the need to rapidly reacquire skills that are essential but have decayed through disuse or infrequent use. Improved efficiency in reacquiring such skills is critical to avoid the likelihood of mistakes that may result in mortality and morbidity. We focus here on a study testing a theory of how the skills required for minimally invasive surgery for military surgeons are learned and retained. Our adaptive virtual reality surgical training system will incorporate an intelligent mechanism for tracking performance that will recognize skill deficiencies and generate an optimal adaptive training schedule. Our design is modeling skill acquisition based on a skill retention theory. The complexity of appropriate training tasks is adjusted according to the level of retention and/or surgical experience. Based on preliminary work, our system will improve the capability to interactively assess the level of skills learning and decay, optimizes skill relearning across levels of surgical experience, and positively impact skill maintenance. Our system could eventually reduce mortality and morbidity by providing trainees with the reexperience they need to help make a transition between operating theaters. This article reports some data that will support adaptive tutoring of minimally invasive surgery and similar surgical skills. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

No evidence of nonlinear effects of predator density, refuge availability, or body size of prey on prey mortality rates.

PubMed

Simkins, Richard M; Belk, Mark C

2017-08-01

Predator density, refuge availability, and body size of prey can all affect the mortality rate of prey. We assume that more predators will lead to an increase in prey mortality rate, but behavioral interactions between predators and prey, and availability of refuge, may lead to nonlinear effects of increased number of predators on prey mortality rates. We tested for nonlinear effects in prey mortality rates in a mesocosm experiment with different size classes of western mosquitofish ( Gambusia affinis ) as the prey, different numbers of green sunfish ( Lepomis cyanellus ) as the predators, and different levels of refuge. Predator number and size class of prey, but not refuge availability, had significant effects on the mortality rate of prey. Change in mortality rate of prey was linear and equal across the range of predator numbers. Each new predator increased the mortality rate by about 10% overall, and mortality rates were higher for smaller size classes. Predator-prey interactions at the individual level may not scale up to create nonlinearity in prey mortality rates with increasing predator density at the population level.

Developing a Social Autopsy Tool for Dengue Mortality: A Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Arauz, María José; Ridde, Valéry; Hernández, Libia Milena; Charris, Yaneth; Carabali, Mabel; Villar, Luis Ángel

2015-01-01

Background Dengue fever is a public health problem in the tropical and sub-tropical world. Dengue cases have grown dramatically in recent years as well as dengue mortality. Colombia has experienced periodic dengue outbreaks with numerous dengue related-deaths, where the Santander department has been particularly affected. Although social determinants of health (SDH) shape health outcomes, including mortality, it is not yet understood how these affect dengue mortality. The aim of this pilot study was to develop and pre-test a social autopsy (SA) tool for dengue mortality. Methods and Findings The tool was developed and pre-tested in three steps. First, dengue fatal cases and ‘near misses’ (those who recovered from dengue complications) definitions were elaborated. Second, a conceptual framework on determinants of dengue mortality was developed to guide the construction of the tool. Lastly, the tool was designed and pre-tested among three relatives of fatal cases and six near misses in 2013 in the metropolitan zone of Bucaramanga. The tool turned out to be practical in the context of dengue mortality in Colombia after some modifications. The tool aims to study the social, individual, and health systems determinants of dengue mortality. The tool is focused on studying the socioeconomic position and the intermediary SDH rather than the socioeconomic and political context. Conclusions The SA tool is based on the scientific literature, a validated conceptual framework, researchers’ and health professionals’ expertise, and a pilot study. It is the first time that a SA tool has been created for the dengue mortality context. Our work furthers the study on SDH and how these are applied to neglected tropical diseases, like dengue. This tool could be integrated in surveillance systems to provide complementary information on the modifiable and avoidable death-related factors and therefore, be able to formulate interventions for dengue mortality reduction. PMID:25658485

Impact of dialysis practice patterns on outcomes in acute kidney injury in Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Annigeri, Rajeev A.; Nandeesh, Venkatappa; Karuniya, Ramanathan; Rajalakshmi, Sasikumar; Venkataraman, Ramesh; Ramakrishnan, Nagarajan

2016-01-01

Aim: Recent advances in dialysis therapy have made an impact on the clinical practice of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in acute kidney injury (AKI) in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). We studied the impact of RRT practice changes on outcomes in AKI in ICU over a period of 8 years. Subjects and Methods: AKI patients requiring RRT in ICU referred to a nephrologist during two different periods (period-1: Between May 2004 and May 2007, n = 69; period-2: Between August 2008 and May 2011, n = 93) were studied. The major changes in the dialysis practice during the period-2, compared to period-1 were introduction of prolonged intermittent RRT (PIRRT), early dialysis for metabolic acidosis, early initiation of RRT for anuria and positive fluid balance and use of bicarbonate-based fluids for continuous RRT (CRRT) instead of lactate buffer. The primary study outcome was 28-day hospital mortality. Results: The mean age was 53.8 ± 16.1 years and 72.6% were male. Introduction of PIRRT resulted in 37% reduction in utilization of CRRT during period-2 (from 85.5% to 53.7%). The overall mortality was high (68%) but was significantly reduced during period-2 compared to period-1 (59% vs. 79.7%, P = 0.006). Metabolic acidosis but not the mode of RRT, was the significant factor which influenced mortality. Conclusions: Adaption of PIRRT resulted in 37% reduction of utilization of CRRT. The mortality rate was significantly reduced during the period of adaption of PIRRT, possibly due to early initiation of RRT in the latter period for indications such as anuria and metabolic acidosis. PMID:26955212

Temporal variation in the effect of heat and the role of the Italian heat prevention plan.

PubMed

de'Donato, F; Scortichini, M; De Sario, M; de Martino, A; Michelozzi, P

2018-05-08

The aim of the article is to evaluate the temporal change in the effect of heat on mortality in Italy in the last 12 years after the introduction of the national heat plan. Time series analysis. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between maximum apparent temperature and mortality in 23 Italian cities included in the national heat plan in four study periods (before the introduction of the heat plan and three periods after the plan was in place between 2005 and 2016). The effect (relative risks) and impact (attributable fraction [AF] and number of heat-related deaths) were estimated for mild summer temperatures (20th and 75th percentile maximum apparent temperature [Tappmax]) and extreme summer temperatures (75th and 99th percentile Tappmax) in each study period. A survey of the heat preventive measures adopted over time in the cities included in the Italian heat plan was carried out to better describe adaptation measures and response. Although heat still has an impact on mortality in Italian cities, a reduction in heat-related mortality is observed progressively over time. In terms of the impact, the heat AF related to extreme temperatures declined from 6.3% in the period 1999-2002 to 4.1% in 2013-2016. Considering the entire temperature range (20th vs 99th percentile), the total number of heat-related deaths spared over the entire study period was 1900. Considering future climate change and the health burden associated to heat waves, it is important to promote adaptation measures by showing the potential effectiveness of heat prevention plans. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of wind energy generation and white-nose syndrome on the viability of the Indiana bat

PubMed Central

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Russell, Robin E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

2016-01-01

Wind energy generation holds the potential to adversely affect wildlife populations. Species-wide effects are difficult to study and few, if any, studies examine effects of wind energy generation on any species across its entire range. One species that may be affected by wind energy generation is the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), which is found in the eastern and midwestern United States. In addition to mortality from wind energy generation, the species also faces range-wide threats from the emerging infectious fungal disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS). White-nose syndrome, caused by Pseudogymnoascus destructans, disturbs hibernating bats leading to high levels of mortality. We used a spatially explicit full-annual-cycle model to investigate how wind turbine mortality and WNS may singly and then together affect population dynamics of this species. In the simulation, wind turbine mortality impacted the metapopulation dynamics of the species by causing extirpation of some of the smaller winter colonies. In general, effects of wind turbines were localized and focused on specific spatial subpopulations. Conversely, WNS had a depressive effect on the species across its range. Wind turbine mortality interacted with WNS and together these stressors had a larger impact than would be expected from either alone, principally because these stressors together act to reduce species abundance across the spectrum of population sizes. Our findings illustrate the importance of not only prioritizing the protection of large winter colonies as is currently done, but also of protecting metapopulation dynamics and migratory connectivity. PMID:28028486

Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation

PubMed Central

Guo, Yuming; Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben; Li, Shanshan; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Leone, Michela; Pan, Xiaochuan; Tong, Shilu; Tian, Linwei; Kim, Ho; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Yi, Seung-Muk; Michelozzi, Paola; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail

2014-01-01

Background Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. Methods We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the non-linear and delayed relationship between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing over-dispersion with distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relationship. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the non-linear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. Results The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, while hot effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Conclusions People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with the risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change. PMID:25166878

A new multidimensional population health indicator for policy makers: absolute level, inequality and spatial clustering - an empirical application using global sub-national infant mortality data.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn K D; Sartorius, Kurt

2014-11-01

The need for a multidimensional measure of population health that accounts for its distribution remains a central problem to guide the allocation of limited resources. Absolute proxy measures, like the infant mortality rate (IMR), are limited because they ignore inequality and spatial clustering. We propose a novel, three-part, multidimensional mortality indicator that can be used as the first step to differentiate interventions in a region or country. The three-part indicator (MortalityABC index) combines absolute mortality rate, the Theil Index to calculate mortality inequality and the Getis-Ord G statistic to determine the degree of spatial clustering. The analysis utilises global sub-national IMR data to empirically illustrate the proposed indicator. The three-part indicator is mapped globally to display regional/country variation and further highlight its potential application. Developing countries (e.g. in sub-Saharan Africa) display high levels of absolute mortality as well as variable mortality inequality with evidence of spatial clustering within certain sub-national units ("hotspots"). Although greater inequality is observed outside developed regions, high mortality inequality and spatial clustering are common in both developed and developing countries. Significant positive correlation was observed between the degree of spatial clustering and absolute mortality. The proposed multidimensional indicator should prove useful for spatial allocation of healthcare resources within a country, because it can prompt a wide range of policy options and prioritise high-risk areas. The new indicator demonstrates the inadequacy of IMR as a single measure of population health, and it can also be adapted to lower administrative levels within a country and other population health measures.

Oxytocin and Social Adaptation: Insights from Neuroimaging Studies of Healthy and Clinical Populations.

PubMed

Ma, Yina; Shamay-Tsoory, Simone; Han, Shihui; Zink, Caroline F

2016-02-01

Adaptation to the social environment is critical for human survival. The neuropeptide oxytocin (OT), implicated in social cognition and emotions pivotal to sociality and well-being, is a promising pharmacological target for social and emotional dysfunction. We suggest here that the multifaceted role of OT in socio-affective processes improves the capability for social adaptation. We review OT effects on socio-affective processes, with a focus on OT-neuroimaging studies, to elucidate neuropsychological mechanisms through which OT promotes social adaptation. We also review OT-neuroimaging studies of individuals with social deficits and suggest that OT ameliorates impaired social adaptation by normalizing hyper- or hypo-brain activity. The social adaption model (SAM) provides an integrative understanding of discrepant OT effects and the modulations of OT action by personal milieu and context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Activity of Selected Formulated Biorational and Synthetic Insecticides Against Larvae of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

PubMed

Vivan, L M; Torres, J B; Fernandes, P L S

2017-02-01

This work studied 17 insecticides belonging to nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV), Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt kurstaki and Bt aizawai), benzoylureas (insect growth regulators [IGRs]), carbamates, organophosphates, spinosyns, and diamides against larvae of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), invasive species in the South American continent. Larvae of different instars were fed for 7 d with untreated or insecticide-treated diets. Mortality was recorded daily for 7 d, and surviving larvae were individually weighed on the seventh day. The NPV and Bt insecticides caused 100% mortality of first-instar larvae and first-instar and second-instar larvae, respectively. However, both NPV and Bt-based products caused low mortality of third-instar larvae and did not kill older larvae. The IGR lufenuron was highly effective against all three ages of larvae tested, whereas teflubenzuron and triflumuron produced maximum 60% mortality of second-instar larvae and lower than 50% to older larvae. Thiodicarb, chlorantraniliprole, indoxacarb, chlorpyrifos, and chlorfenapyr, irrespective of tested age, caused 100% mortality of larvae, with the last two insecticides reaching 100% mortality within 2 d of feeding on the treated diet. Flubendiamide caused lower mortality but significantly affected the weight of surviving larvae, whereas neither spinosad nor methomyl produced significant mortality or affected the weight of larvae. Based on the results, the age of H. armigera larvae plays an important role in the recommendation of NPV and Bt insecticides. Furthermore, there are potential options between biological and synthetic insecticides tested against H. armigera, and recording larval size during monitoring, in addition to the infestation level, should be considered when recommending biological-based insecticides to control this pest. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Chronic and catastrophic natural mortality of three common Caribbean reef corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bythell, J. C.; Gladfelter, E. H.; Bythell, M.

1993-11-01

Compared to catastrophic impacts from storms, disease epidemics and bleaching events, little is known about the effects of more routine chronic mortality in reef corals. To monitor this ongoing mortality, monthly visual assessments of the cause of tissue damage were related to mortality rates (changes in planar surface area) of tagged colonies of three common reef corals: Montastrea annularis, Porites astreoides and Diploria strigosa at Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. During the study Hurricane Hugo, the most powerful cyclone to affect the area in at least 60 y, made a direct impact on the site. Effects of the hurricane were extremely localized, with certain exposed sites being almost completely razed while others showed no detectable changes in community structure. Mortality caused both by the hurricane and by other factors during the 26 month study varied between species and also between site locations around the island. Differences in susceptibility were not dependent solely on gross morphology, because two robust, massive species showed opposite responses to hurricane damage and chronic mortality. Diploria strigosa was virtually unaffected by chronic factors, but was heavily damaged at exposed sites during the hurricane. In contrast, mortality from predation and tissue necrosis was high in Montastrea annularis, but it largely escaped damage from the hurricane because it was absent from the most severely scoured locations. Porites astreoides, with populations dominated by much smaller colonies, was affected by both chronic and hurricanerelated mortality. Differences in susceptibility to the various types of natural disturbance among species, coupled with high spatial and temporal variability in the effects of such disturbances, may be critical to the maintenance of species diversity on the reef.

Space Adaptation Back Pain: A Retrospective Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, E. L.; Scheuring, R. A.; Barnes, M. G.; DeKorse, T. B.; Saile, L. G.

2008-01-01

Back pain is frequently reported by astronauts during the early phase of space flight as they adapt to the microgravity environment. However, the epidemiology of space adaptation back pain has not been well defined. The purpose of this retrospective study was to develop a case definition of space adaptation back pain, determine the incidence of space adaptation back pain, and determine the effectiveness of available treatments. Medical records from the Mercury, Apollo, Apollo-Soyuz Test Project (ASTP), Skylab, Mir, International Space Station (ISS), and Shuttle programs were reviewed. All episodes of in-flight back pain that met the criteria for space adaptation back pain were recorded. Pain characteristics, including intensity, location, and duration of the pain were noted. The effectiveness of specific treatments also was recorded. The incidence of space adaptation back pain among astronauts was determined to be 53% (384/722). Most of the affected astronauts reported mild pain (85%). Moderate pain was reported by 11% of the affected astronauts and severe pain was reported by only 4% of the affected astronauts. The most effective treatments were fetal positioning (91% effective) and the use of analgesic medications (85% effective). This retrospective study aids in the development of a case definition of space adaptation back pain and examines the epidemiology of space adaptation back pain. Space adaptation back pain is usually mild and self-limited. However, there is a risk of functional impairment and mission impact in cases of moderate or severe pain that do not respond to currently available treatments. Therefore, the development of preventive measures and more effective treatments should be pursued.

Associations between coping, affect, and social support among low-income African American smokers.

PubMed

Webb Hooper, Monica; Baker, Elizabeth A; McNutt, Marcia D

2013-11-01

Previous research has documented disparities in smoking cessation between African Americans and Caucasians. Many low-income African American smokers face a range of circumstances that may inhibit effective coping during quit attempts, yet previous research has not considered factors that influence coping in this population. This study examined (a) affect (positive and negative) and (b) perceived social support in association with coping strategies. The baseline assessment of African American smokers (N = 168) enrolled in a randomized controlled trial included the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule, the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support, and the Brief COPE. A factor analysis of the Brief COPE resulted in two factors, adaptive and maladaptive strategies. Participants were mostly single (64%), women (61%), with ≥12 years of education (68%), and low-income. They were middle aged (M = 46.1, SD = 8.7), smoked 21.8 (SD = 13.3) cigarettes/day for 24.3 (SD = 11) years, and were moderately nicotine dependent. Results demonstrated that adaptive coping was positively correlated with positive affect and social support. Maladaptive coping was positively correlated with negative affect, and inversely related to positive affect and social support. Multivariate analyses revealed that positive affect and social support were independently associated with adaptive coping strategies. In contrast, maladaptive coping was independently associated with negative affect, but not social support. Interventions that harness positive resources, such as social support and positive mood, may facilitate adaptive coping. Also, addressing negative affect among low-income African American smokers may be important to reduce maladaptive coping strategies. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting survival in neonatal surgery unit in a tertiary care university hospital during 26 years.

PubMed

Özden, Önder; Karnak, İbrahim; Çiftçi, Arbay Özden; Tanyel, F Cahit; Şenocak, Mehmet Emin

2016-01-01

This clinical study was designed to evaluate mortality rate and the factors that may affect survival in neonatal surgery unit. Randomly chosen 300 (ß: 0.20) patients among 1,439 patients treated in neonatal surgery unit during years 1983 to 2009, were evaluated retrospectively. The patients were separated into three groups according to date of treatment; Group A: 1983 - 1995, Group B: 1996 - 2005 and Group C: 2005 - 2009. M/F ratios did not differ between non-survived and survived patient populations. Mortality rates were 37%, 22% and 13% in Group A, B, and C respectively (p < 0.001). Parenteral nutrition, maternal age, time until admission and gestational age did not affect mortality rate, however median age of newborn was lower in non-survived cases (1 day vs. 3 days, p < 0.001). Associating abnormality, low birth weight ( < 1,500 g), associating sepsis, need of globulin and requirement of respiratory support were determinants of lower survival (p < 0.001). The mortality rate for patients that underwent thoracotomy (42%) and laparotomy (41%) were higher than patients that underwent other operations (8%) and observation (10%) (p < 0.001). Diaphragmatic hernia had higher mortality rates than the other pathologies (p < 0.001). Survival rate is increasing to date in newborn pediatric surgery unit; it is independent from parenteral nutrition, maternal age, time to admission and gestational age however it is affected adversely by the age of patient, associating abnormality, low birth weight, presence of sepsis and requirement of respiratory support. Increase in survival could be related to various additional factors such as development of delicate respiratory support machines, broad spectrum antibiotics, hospital infection control teams, central venous catheters, use of TPN by central route, volume adjustable infusion pumps, monitoring devices, neonatal surgical techniques, prenatal diagnosis of pediatric surgical conditions and developments of environmental control methods in neonatal surgical units.

Lights out: Impact of the August 2003 power outage on mortality in New York, NY

PubMed Central

Anderson, G. Brooke; Bell, Michelle L.

2012-01-01

Background Little is known about how power outages affect health. We investigated mortality effects of the largest US blackout to date, August 14–15, 2003 in New York, NY. Methods We estimated mortality risk in New York, NY, using a generalized linear model with data from 1987–2005. We incorporated possible confounders, including weather and long-term and seasonal mortality trends. Results During the blackout, mortality increased for accidental deaths (122% [95% confidence interval = 28%–287%]) and non-accidental (i.e., disease-related) deaths (25% [12%–41%]), resulting in approximately 90 excess deaths. Increased mortality was not from deaths being advanced by a few days; rather, mortality risk remained slightly elevated through August 2003. Discussion To our knowledge, this is the first analysis of power outages and non-accidental mortality. Understanding the impact of power outages on human health is relevant, given that increased energy demand and climate change are likely to put added strain on power grids. PMID:22252408

The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015

PubMed Central

Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Dean, J. Michael; Berger, John T.; Wessel, David L.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Harrison, Rick E.; Carcillo, Joseph; Dalton, Heidi; Shanley, Thomas; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert

2016-01-01

Objectives Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for “optimizing” care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3–5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics indicated adequate model fit for both the development (p = 0.39) and validation (p = 0.50) sets. Conclusions The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection methods include significant improvements that minimize the potential for bias and errors, and the new Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV algorithm for survival and death has excellent prediction performance. PMID:26492059

Pattern of burn injury at north of Jordan.

PubMed

Bataineh, Ziad A; Al Quran, Thekraiat M; Al Balas, Hamzeh; Khammash, Muhmammad R

2018-01-01

To the best of our knowledge, pattern of burn injury was not reported yet at our region, our hospital considered the only tertiary referral center with the only burn unit at the region since 2001 till date, a retrospective analysis of our computerized filing system recorded 527 burn patients between 2001-2016, mean age was 26 years; 1.27:1 was the male to female ratio, 79 patients were found to have major burns, 46% of admissions were below 20 years' age, 92% was at domestic site of affection and 65% due to flame burn followed by scald burn in about 23%. The limbs were the most affected body site, majority of patients were below 15% TBSA and partial thickness, 77 patients found to have inhalational injury. Our mean hospital stay was 16 days and mortality was 8.2%. Mortality was associated with high TBSA affection, depth and flame type. This study shows the pattern of burn at north of Jordan, preventive measures by education and observation will reduce the incidence of burn and its sequel, non-flammable cook plates and stoves will probably help in decrease burn morbidity and mortality.

Genetic erosion impedes adaptive responses to stressful environments

PubMed Central

Bijlsma, R; Loeschcke, Volker

2012-01-01

Biodiversity is increasingly subjected to human-induced changes of the environment. To persist, populations continually have to adapt to these often stressful changes including pollution and climate change. Genetic erosion in small populations, owing to fragmentation of natural habitats, is expected to obstruct such adaptive responses: (i) genetic drift will cause a decrease in the level of adaptive genetic variation, thereby limiting evolutionary responses; (ii) inbreeding and the concomitant inbreeding depression will reduce individual fitness and, consequently, the tolerance of populations to environmental stress. Importantly, inbreeding generally increases the sensitivity of a population to stress, thereby increasing the amount of inbreeding depression. As adaptation to stress is most often accompanied by increased mortality (cost of selection), the increase in the ‘cost of inbreeding’ under stress is expected to severely hamper evolutionary adaptive processes. Inbreeding thus plays a pivotal role in this process and is expected to limit the probability of genetically eroded populations to successfully adapt to stressful environmental conditions. Consequently, the dynamics of small fragmented populations may differ considerably from large nonfragmented populations. The resilience of fragmented populations to changing and deteriorating environments is expected to be greatly decreased. Alleviating inbreeding depression, therefore, is crucial to ensure population persistence. PMID:25568035

[Mortality study of asbestos cement workers in Emilia-Romagna].

PubMed

Luberto, Ferdinando; Amendola, Plinio; Belli, Stefano; Bruno, Caterina; Candela, Silvia; Grignoli, Mario; Comba, Pietro

2004-01-01

The present study updates to 06/30/1998 the cohort mortality study of 3358 workers employed in 10 asbestos cement production plants in the Italian region Emilia-Romagna. The cohort includes 2712 males and 646 females. Overall mortality was significantly increased (SMR=131, IC95%:108-127). Excess mortality has been observed for all malignant neoplasms (SMR=131, IC95%: 115-149, 250 observed) and for respiratory diseases (SMR=153, IC: 105-216, 32 observed), 3 deaths due to asbestosis. Mortality for all respiratory tract neoplasms (SMR=179, IC: 148-215, 114 observed), pulmonary cancer (SMR=157, IC: 126-192, 90 observed) and pleural cancer (SMR=1922, IC: 1139-3038, 18 observed) are significantly increased. This study confirms the previous cohort study observation of increased mortality for all causes, all neoplasm and cancer affecting lungs and pleura.

Platelet count and total and cause-specific mortality in the Women's Health Initiative.

PubMed

Kabat, Geoffrey C; Kim, Mimi Y; Verma, Amit K; Manson, JoAnn E; Lin, Juan; Lessin, Lawrence; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Rohan, Thomas E

2017-04-01

We used data from the Women's Health Initiative to examine the association of platelet count with total mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, cancer mortality, and non-CHD/noncancer mortality. Platelet count was measured at baseline in 159,746 postmenopausal women and again in year 3 in 75,339 participants. Participants were followed for a median of 15.9 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative mortality hazards associated with deciles of baseline platelet count and of the mean of baseline + year 3 platelet count. Low and high deciles of both baseline and mean platelet count were positively associated with total mortality, CHD mortality, cancer mortality, and non-CHD/noncancer mortality. The association was robust and was not affected by adjustment for a number of potential confounding factors, exclusion of women with comorbidity, or allowance for reverse causality. Low- and high-platelet counts were associated with all four outcomes in never smokers, former smokers, and current smokers. In this large study of postmenopausal women, both low- and high-platelet counts were associated with total and cause-specific mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dietary modification of brain function: effects on neuroendocrine and psychological determinants of mental health- and stress-related disorders.

PubMed

Waladkhani, A R; Hellhammer, J

2008-01-01

Stress is associated with both psychological and biological adaptation. Chronic stress, however, impairs adaptation, and may finally lead to illness, in part through unhealthy changes in nutritional behavior. This chapter shows how physiological and psychological stress responses are affected by different food ingredients, and how stress affects health behavior, for example food choice. It becomes obvious that nutrition is closely linked to food choice and that food ingredients affect a broad range of neuroendocrine and related psychological processes, which regulate adaptation to chronic stress. Thus, dietary modification may become a valuable tool to modify the susceptibility to stress and stress-related disorders.

Correlations for number of sunspots, unemployment rate, and suicide mortality in Japan.

PubMed

Otsu, Akiko; Chinami, Masanobu; Morgenthale, Stephan; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Fujita, Daisuke; Shirakawa, Taro

2006-04-01

We studied the correlations among sunspot numbers, business cycles, and suicide mortalitites. Based on data from Japan between 1971 and 2001, a significant negative correlation between sunspot numbers and unemployment rate was found, R= -.17. The correlation between suicide mortality and unemployment rate was positive for males (R=.46) and negative for females (R =-.69). Both are statistically significant. The hypothesis that variation of sun activity may affect the economy and the unemployment rate and hence increase the male suicide mortality is raised.

Analysis of Injury and Mortality Patterns in Deceased Patients with Road Traffic Injuries: An Autopsy Study.

PubMed

Pfeifer, Roman; Schick, Sylvia; Holzmann, Christopher; Graw, Matthias; Teuben, Michel; Pape, Hans-Christoph

2017-12-01

Despite improvements in prevention and rescue, mortality rates after severe blunt trauma continue to be a problem. The present study analyses mortality patterns in a representative blunt trauma population, specifically the influence of demographic, injury pattern, location and timing of death. Patients that died between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2005 were subjected to a standardised autopsy. death from blunt trauma due to road traffic injuries (Injury Severity Score ≥ 16), patients from a defined geographical area and death on scene or in hospital. suicide, homicide, penetrating trauma and monotrauma including isolated head injury. Statistical analyses included Student's t test (parametric), Mann-Whitney U test (nonparametric) or Chi-square test. A total of 277 consecutive injured patients were included in this study (mean age 46.1 ± 23 years; 67.5% males), 40.5% of which had an ISS of 75. A unimodal distribution of mortality was observed in blunt trauma patients. The most frequently injured body regions with the highest severity were the head (38.6%), chest (26.7%), or both head and chest (11.0%). The cumulative analysis of mortality showed that several factors, such as injury pattern and regional location of collisions, also affected the pattern of mortality. The majority of patients died on scene from severe head and thoracic injuries. A homogenous distribution of death was observed after an initial peak of death on scene. Moreover, several factors such as injury pattern and regional location of collisions may also affect the pattern of mortality.

Impacts of Austrian Climate Variability on Honey Bee Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switanek, Matt; Brodschneider, Robert; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo

2015-04-01

Global food production, as it is today, is not possible without pollinators such as the honey bee. It is therefore alarming that honey bee populations across the world have seen increased mortality rates in the last few decades. The challenges facing the honey bee calls into question the future of our food supply. Beside various infectious diseases, Varroa destructor is one of the main culprits leading to increased rates of honey bee mortality. Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite which strongly depends on honey bee brood for reproduction and can wipe out entire colonies. However, climate variability may also importantly influence honey bee breeding cycles and bee mortality rates. Persistent weather events affects vegetation and hence foraging possibilities for honey bees. This study first defines critical statistical relationships between key climate indicators (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and bee mortality rates across Austria, using 6 consecutive years of data. Next, these leading indicators, as they vary in space and time, are used to build a statistical model to predict bee mortality rates and the respective number of colonies affected. Using leave-one-out cross validation, the model reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 21% with respect to predictions made with the mean mortality rate and the number of colonies. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo test is used to establish that the model's predictions are statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. These results highlight the influence of climate variables on honey bee populations, although variability in climate, by itself, cannot fully explain colony losses. This study was funded by the Austrian project 'Zukunft Biene'.

Austerity and old-age mortality in England: a longitudinal cross-local area analysis, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Loopstra, Rachel; McKee, Martin; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Taylor-Robinson, David; Barr, Ben; Stuckler, David

2016-03-01

There has been significant concern that austerity measures have negatively impacted health in the UK. We examined whether budgetary reductions in Pension Credit and social care have been associated with recent rises in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over. Cross-local authority longitudinal study. Three hundred and twenty-four lower tier local authorities in England. Annual percentage changes in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years or over. Between 2007 and 2013, each 1% decline in Pension Credit spending (support for low income pensioners) per beneficiary was associated with an increase in 0.68% in old-age mortality (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.95). Each reduction in the number of beneficiaries per 1000 pensioners was associated with an increase in 0.20% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.24). Each 1% decline in social care spending was associated with a significant rise in old-age mortality (0.08%, 95% CI: 0.0006-0.12) but not after adjusting for Pension Credit spending. Similar patterns were seen in both men and women. Weaker associations observed for those aged 75 to 84 years, and none among those 65 to 74 years. Categories of service expenditure not expected to affect old-age mortality, such as transportation, showed no association. Rising mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over were linked to reductions in spending on income support for poor pensioners and social care. Findings suggest austerity measures in England have affected vulnerable old-age adults. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Austerity and old-age mortality in England: a longitudinal cross-local area analysis, 2007–2013

PubMed Central

McKee, Martin; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Taylor-Robinson, David; Barr, Ben; Stuckler, David

2016-01-01

Objective There has been significant concern that austerity measures have negatively impacted health in the UK. We examined whether budgetary reductions in Pension Credit and social care have been associated with recent rises in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over. Design Cross-local authority longitudinal study. Setting Three hundred and twenty-four lower tier local authorities in England. Main outcome measure Annual percentage changes in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years or over. Results Between 2007 and 2013, each 1% decline in Pension Credit spending (support for low income pensioners) per beneficiary was associated with an increase in 0.68% in old-age mortality (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.95). Each reduction in the number of beneficiaries per 1000 pensioners was associated with an increase in 0.20% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.24). Each 1% decline in social care spending was associated with a significant rise in old-age mortality (0.08%, 95% CI: 0.0006–0.12) but not after adjusting for Pension Credit spending. Similar patterns were seen in both men and women. Weaker associations observed for those aged 75 to 84 years, and none among those 65 to 74 years. Categories of service expenditure not expected to affect old-age mortality, such as transportation, showed no association. Conclusions Rising mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over were linked to reductions in spending on income support for poor pensioners and social care. Findings suggest austerity measures in England have affected vulnerable old-age adults. PMID:26980412

Parental effects alter the adaptive value of an adult behavioural trait

PubMed Central

Kilner, Rebecca M; Boncoraglio, Giuseppe; Henshaw, Jonathan M; Jarrett, Benjamin JM; De Gasperin, Ornela; Attisano, Alfredo; Kokko, Hanna

2015-01-01

The parents' phenotype, or the environment they create for their young, can have long-lasting effects on their offspring, with profound evolutionary consequences. Yet, virtually no work has considered how such parental effects might change the adaptive value of behavioural traits expressed by offspring upon reaching adulthood. To address this problem, we combined experiments on burying beetles (Nicrophorus vespilloides) with theoretical modelling and focussed on one adult behavioural trait in particular: the supply of parental care. We manipulated the early-life environment and measured the fitness payoffs associated with the supply of parental care when larvae reached maturity. We found that (1) adults that received low levels of care as larvae were less successful at raising larger broods and suffered greater mortality as a result: they were low-quality parents. Furthermore, (2) high-quality males that raised offspring with low-quality females subsequently suffered greater mortality than brothers of equivalent quality, which reared larvae with higher quality females. Our analyses identify three general ways in which parental effects can change the adaptive value of an adult behavioural trait: by influencing the associated fitness benefits and costs; by consequently changing the evolutionary outcome of social interactions; and by modifying the evolutionarily stable expression of behavioural traits that are themselves parental effects. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07340.001 PMID:26393686

Adaptability: How Students' Responses to Uncertainty and Novelty Predict Their Academic and Non-Academic Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Andrew J.; Nejad, Harry G.; Colmar, Susan; Liem, Gregory Arief D.

2013-01-01

Adaptability is defined as appropriate cognitive, behavioral, and/or affective adjustment in the face of uncertainty and novelty. Building on prior measurement work demonstrating the psychometric properties of an adaptability construct, the present study investigates dispositional predictors (personality, implicit theories) of adaptability, and…

Gypsy moth impacts in pine-hardwood mixtures

Treesearch

Kurt W. Gottschalk; Mark J. Twery

1989-01-01

Gypsy moth has affected pine-hardwood mixtures, especially oak-pine stands, since the late 1800's. Several old and new studies on impacts in mixed stands are reviewed. When pines are heavily defoliated, considerable growth loss and mortality can occur. Mortality is heaviest in understory white pine trees, Impact information is used to suggest silvicultural...

A Terror Management Perspective on Young Adults' Ageism and Attitudes toward Dementia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connor, Melissa L.; McFadden, Susan H.

2012-01-01

According to Terror Management Theory as applied to ageism, older adults may be associated with mortality, thereby generating death-thought accessibility, stereotypes, and mixed emotions among younger adults. However, it is unclear how older adults' health conditions, such as dementia, affect ageist attitudes and mortality salience. In the current…

Inhalation injury in a burn unit: a retrospective review of prognostic factors

PubMed Central

Monteiro, D.; Silva, I.; Egipto, P.; Magalhães, A.; Filipe, R.; Silva, A.; Rodrigues, A.; Costa, J.

2017-01-01

Summary Inhalation injury (InI) is known to seriously affect the prognosis of burn patients, as it is strongly associated with high morbidity and mortality. Despite major advances in the treatment of burn patients in the past years, advances in the treatment of smoke InI have been somewhat limited; mortality reduction mostly results from improvements in critical care. It is difficult to separate the contribution of InI from other mechanisms that also affect respiratory tract and lungs. The aim of this study was to compare patients with and without InI and to identify prognostic factors among patients with smoke InI. Patients with InI displayed higher total body surface area (TBSA) burned, higher incidence of pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a higher rate of positive blood cultures and a significantly higher death rate. We could conclude that older age, higher TBSA, ARDS and pneumonia were independent predictive factors for mortality in our global study population. Older age and higher TBSA were the only independent factors found to be predictive of mortality in patients with InI. PMID:29021724

Inhalation injury in a burn unit: a retrospective review of prognostic factors.

PubMed

Monteiro, D; Silva, I; Egipto, P; Magalhães, A; Filipe, R; Silva, A; Rodrigues, A; Costa, J

2017-06-30

Inhalation injury (InI) is known to seriously affect the prognosis of burn patients, as it is strongly associated with high morbidity and mortality. Despite major advances in the treatment of burn patients in the past years, advances in the treatment of smoke InI have been somewhat limited; mortality reduction mostly results from improvements in critical care. It is difficult to separate the contribution of InI from other mechanisms that also affect respiratory tract and lungs. The aim of this study was to compare patients with and without InI and to identify prognostic factors among patients with smoke InI. Patients with InI displayed higher total body surface area (TBSA) burned, higher incidence of pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a higher rate of positive blood cultures and a significantly higher death rate. We could conclude that older age, higher TBSA, ARDS and pneumonia were independent predictive factors for mortality in our global study population. Older age and higher TBSA were the only independent factors found to be predictive of mortality in patients with InI.

Effects of the july 1997 floods in the Czech Republic on cardiac mortality.

PubMed

Obrová, Jana; Sovová, Eliška; Ivanová, Kateřina; Táborský, Miloš; Loyka, Svatopluk

2014-12-01

An excess of deaths from cardiac causes are reported after many natural disasters. Despite the fact that floods are the most common and most destructive natural disaster worldwide, little is known about their effect on human health. We analyzed the influence of the greatest floods in the Czech Republic on cardiac mortality in the affected area. This was a retrospective case-control study. We analyzed persons whose autopsies proved they had died of cardiac causes during the month of the flood, 2 months before the flood, 1 month after the flood, and during the same period in the 3 previous years. A total of 207 of 985 autopsy reports met the criteria for inclusion in the study. There were no significant differences in the proportions of men and women (P=0.819) or in age (P=0.577). During the month of the flood, an increase in cardiac mortality was observed; however, the increase was not statistically significant (P=0.088). According to our findings, the 1997 Central European flood did not significantly affect cardiac mortality.

Outbreaks of Acropora white syndrome and Terpios sponge overgrowth combined with coral mortality in Palk Bay, southeast coast of India.

PubMed

Thinesh, T; Mathews, G; Diraviya Raj, K; Edward, J K P

2017-09-20

Acropora white syndrome (AWS) and Terpios sponge overgrowth (TSO) are serious threats to coral communities in various regions; however, information on these 2 lesions in the Indian Ocean is much more limited than in the Indo-Pacific. The present study revealed the impact of these lesions on the Palk Bay reef, India, and covered an area of 7 km2. In total, 1930 colonies were permanently monitored to assess incidences of AWS and TSO and consequent mortality for a period of 1 yr. TSO affected 5 coral genera and caused 20.7% mortality; overall prevalence increased from 1.3% (n = 25) to 25.5% (n = 492). In contrast, AWS only affected Acropora colonies and caused a mortality of 8%; overall prevalence increased from 0.9% (n = 17) to 12.9% (n = 249). Year-round monitoring revealed an increasing trend of both AWS and TSO, followed by temperature rise. These results add to the known geographic distribution of these coral diseases and reveal the impacts of AWS and TSO on coral reefs in the Indian Ocean.

Assessment of the impact of the change from manual to automated coding on mortality statistics in Australia.

PubMed

McKenzie, Kirsten; Walker, Sue; Tong, Shilu

It remains unclear whether the change from a manual to an automated coding system (ACS) for deaths has significantly affected the consistency of Australian mortality data. The underlying causes of 34,000 deaths registered in 1997 in Australia were dual coded, in ICD-9 manually, and by using an automated computer coding program. The diseases most affected by the change from manual to ACS were senile/presenile dementia, and pneumonia. The most common disease to which a manually assigned underlying cause of senile dementia was coded with ACS was unspecified psychoses (37.2%). Only 12.5% of codes assigned by ACS as senile dementia were coded the same by manual coders. This study indicates some important differences in mortality rates when comparing mortality data that have been coded manually with those coded using an automated computer coding program. These differences may be related to both the different interpretation of ICD coding rules between manual and automated coding, and different co-morbidities or co-existing conditions among demographic groups.

Annual temperature anomaly trends correlate with coral reef trajectory across the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegl, B. M.; Wieters, E.; Bruckner, A.; Purkis, S.

2013-05-01

The future survival of coral reefs depends on the envelope of critical climatic conditions determining the severity of impacts on the ecosystem. While coral health is strongly determined by extreme heat events, that lead to bleaching and often death, chronic "heat loading" may also disadvantage corals by making them more susceptible to, for example, diseases. On the other hand, it has been shown that coral living in hotter areas have higher bleaching thresholds and may be affected by less mortality at extreme events. This level at which heat anomalies lead to coral mortality varies widely across oceans, from ~31 deg C across the Caribbean to ~32 deg C in the Great Barrier Reef to 37.5 deg C in the Persian/Arabian Gulf. Thus, there clearly exists local adaptation and the extremes required to kill reefs strongly vary among regions. This could be be interpreted as suggesting that as long as bleaching temperatures are not reached, increased overall heat content expressed by a positive annual thermal anomaly, might actually foster coral resilience. Is there evidence for or against such an argument? Bleaching events have been occurring worldwide with variable recurrence and variable subsequent recovery. Despite demonstrated adaptation to higher-than-usual mean summer temperatures, reefs in the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea are on a declining trajectory. This coincides with consistent warming in the region. Mean annual anomalies of ocean temperature (since 1870) and atmospheric temperatures (since 1950) increase throughout the region. Since 1994 (Red Sea) and 1998 (southern Arabian Gulf) all mean annual anomalies have been positive and this period has coincided with repeated, severe bleaching events. In the Eastern Pacific (Galapagos and Easter Island), the trend of mean annual temperature anomalies has been declining and coral cover has been increasing. Thus, trends in coral cover and mean annual anomaly are negatively correlated in both regions. Despite strong impacts due to bleaching in 1983 and 1998, and increasing variance in anomalies (both positive and negative) the E-Pacific presently maintains an upward trend in coral cover and colony frequency. In the Red Sea , variance in anomalies increased but exclusively towards positive values. In the Gulf, variance declined towards stronger and only positive anomalies. In both regions, this raised thermal envelope is associated with reef decline. This is most dramatic in the Gulf, with six bleaching events since 1996, but also obvious in the Red Sea (bleaching in 1998, 2005 and 2010). Both Gulf and Red Sea suffer also from other mortality factors, such as diseases and predator outbreaks. Decline in reef health is therefore not uniquely linked to bleaching, but other mortality factors are also linked to changes in the thermal envelope. Chronic effects of increased average temperatures seem to define a reef trajectory more closely than the effects of individual, albeit strong, episodic disturbances.

Social adaptation in multi-agent model of linguistic categorization is affected by network information flow.

PubMed

Zubek, Julian; Denkiewicz, Michał; Barański, Juliusz; Wróblewski, Przemysław; Rączaszek-Leonardi, Joanna; Plewczynski, Dariusz

2017-01-01

This paper explores how information flow properties of a network affect the formation of categories shared between individuals, who are communicating through that network. Our work is based on the established multi-agent model of the emergence of linguistic categories grounded in external environment. We study how network information propagation efficiency and the direction of information flow affect categorization by performing simulations with idealized network topologies optimizing certain network centrality measures. We measure dynamic social adaptation when either network topology or environment is subject to change during the experiment, and the system has to adapt to new conditions. We find that both decentralized network topology efficient in information propagation and the presence of central authority (information flow from the center to peripheries) are beneficial for the formation of global agreement between agents. Systems with central authority cope well with network topology change, but are less robust in the case of environment change. These findings help to understand which network properties affect processes of social adaptation. They are important to inform the debate on the advantages and disadvantages of centralized systems.

Social adaptation in multi-agent model of linguistic categorization is affected by network information flow

PubMed Central

Denkiewicz, Michał; Barański, Juliusz; Wróblewski, Przemysław; Rączaszek-Leonardi, Joanna; Plewczynski, Dariusz

2017-01-01

This paper explores how information flow properties of a network affect the formation of categories shared between individuals, who are communicating through that network. Our work is based on the established multi-agent model of the emergence of linguistic categories grounded in external environment. We study how network information propagation efficiency and the direction of information flow affect categorization by performing simulations with idealized network topologies optimizing certain network centrality measures. We measure dynamic social adaptation when either network topology or environment is subject to change during the experiment, and the system has to adapt to new conditions. We find that both decentralized network topology efficient in information propagation and the presence of central authority (information flow from the center to peripheries) are beneficial for the formation of global agreement between agents. Systems with central authority cope well with network topology change, but are less robust in the case of environment change. These findings help to understand which network properties affect processes of social adaptation. They are important to inform the debate on the advantages and disadvantages of centralized systems. PMID:28809957

Spatial Analysis of China Province-level Perinatal Mortality

PubMed Central

XIANG, Kun; SONG, Deyong

2016-01-01

Background: Using spatial analysis tools to determine the spatial patterns of China province-level perinatal mortality and using spatial econometric model to examine the impacts of health care resources and different socio-economic factors on perinatal mortality. Methods: The Global Moran’s I index is used to examine whether the spatial autocorrelation exists in selected regions and Moran’s I scatter plot to examine the spatial clustering among regions. Spatial econometric models are used to investigate the spatial relationships between perinatal mortality and contributing factors. Results: The overall Moran’s I index indicates that perinatal mortality displays positive spatial autocorrelation. Moran’s I scatter plot analysis implies that there is a significant clustering of mortality in both high-rate regions and low-rate regions. The spatial econometric models analyses confirm the existence of a direct link between perinatal mortality and health care resources, socio-economic factors. Conclusions: Since a positive spatial autocorrelation has been detected in China province-level perinatal mortality, the upgrading of regional economic development and medical service level will affect the mortality not only in region itself but also its adjacent regions. PMID:27398334

Sex differences in mortality in Denmark during half a century, 1943-92.

PubMed

Helweg-Larsen, K; Juel, K

2000-09-01

The emphasis of this study is on the relative mortality of 45-74-year-old men and women in Denmark in 1943-92, following economic and political changes that have affected the social meaning of gender over the last 50 years, and which have diminished former sex differences in health behaviour. Sex ratios of total mortality and mortality from major non-sex-specific causes of death were calculated on computerized mortality data from the Danish National Cause of Death Register that covers all deaths in Denmark since 1943. In the early 1940s the sex ratio of all-cause mortality was low, 1.0-1.1, it increased to a peak level in the late 1970s and early 1980s, but has since decreased due to an increase in female mortality and a more favourable trend in male mortality. Gender equality, employment, and economic autonomy may have beneficial health effects on both men and women, but the effects are inconsistent. The trend in smoking is the major explanatory factor for the more recent trends in gender differentials in mortality in Denmark.

Health, Wartime Stress, and Unit Cohesion: Evidence From Union Army Veterans

PubMed Central

COSTA, DORA L.; KAHN, MATTHEW E.

2010-01-01

We find that Union Army veterans of the American Civil War who faced greater wartime stress (as measured by higher battlefield mortality rates) experienced higher mortality rates at older ages, but that men who were from more cohesive companies were statistically significantly less likely to be affected by wartime stress. Our results hold for overall mortality, mortality from ischemic heart disease and stroke, and new diagnoses of arteriosclerosis. Our findings represent one of the first long-run health follow-ups of the interaction between stress and social networks in a human population in which both stress and social networks are arguably exogenous. PMID:20355683

Paternal smoking and increased risk of infant and under-5 child mortality in Indonesia.

PubMed

Semba, Richard D; de Pee, Saskia; Sun, Kai; Best, Cora M; Sari, Mayang; Bloem, Martin W

2008-10-01

We examined the relationship between paternal smoking and child mortality. Among 361,021 rural and urban families in Indonesia, paternal smoking was associated with increased infant mortality (rural, odds ratio [OR] = 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.24, 1.35; urban, OR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.01, 1.20), and under-5 child mortality (rural, OR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.26, 1.37; urban, OR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.05, 1.23). Paternal smoking diverts money from basic necessities to cigarettes and adversely affects child health; tobacco control should therefore be considered among strategies to improve child survival.

Novel and nonpharmacologic approaches to cardio-protection in hypertension.

PubMed

Donazzan, Luca; Mahfoud, Felix; Linz, Dominik; Ewen, Sebastian; Ukena, Christian; Böhm, Michael

2014-05-01

Hypertension has wide (30-45 %) prevalence in the general population and is related to important increases in overall cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Despite lifestyle modifications and optimal medical therapy (three drugs, one being diuretic), about 5-20 % of hypertensives are affected by resistant hypertension. Chronic high blood pressure has adverse effects on the heart and other organs such as the kidneys and vasculature. Renal sympathetic denervation and baroreceptor stimulation are invasive approaches initially investigated to treat resistant hypertension. Their pleiotropic effects appear promising in cardiovascular remodeling, heart failure and arrhythmias and could potentially affect cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Motility problems in the intellectually challenged child, adolescent, and young adult.

PubMed

Martinelli, Massimo; Staiano, Annamaria

2011-12-01

Gastrointestinal (GI) motility problems represent an important cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients affected by developmental disorders. This article describes motility disorders in Down syndrome, cerebral palsy, familial dysautonomia, and Williams syndrome. These problems do not often receive appropriate attention, either because priority is given to other medical aspects of the disorder, or because of the inability of affected children to communicate their symptoms. A better approach to the diagnosis and treatment of GI disorders is required to improve quality of life and minimize morbidity and mortality among patients with developmental disorders.

Dying for a smoke: how much does differential mortality of smokers affect estimated life-course smoking prevalence?

PubMed

Christopoulou, Rebekka; Han, Jeffrey; Jaber, Ahmed; Lillard, Dean R

2011-01-01

An extensive literature uses reconstructed historical smoking rates by birth-cohort to inform anti-smoking policies. This paper examines whether and how these rates change when one adjusts for differential mortality of smokers and non-smokers. Using retrospectively reported data from the US (Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1986, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005), the UK (British Household Panel Survey, 1999, 2002), and Russia (Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Study, 2000), we generate life-course smoking prevalence rates by age-cohort. With cause-specific death rates from secondary sources and an improved method, we correct for differential mortality, and we test whether adjusted and unadjusted rates statistically differ. With US data (National Health Interview Survey, 1967-2004), we also compare contemporaneously measured smoking prevalence rates with the equivalent rates from retrospective data. We find that differential mortality matters only for men. For Russian men over age 70 and US and UK men over age 80 unadjusted smoking prevalence understates the true prevalence. The results using retrospective and contemporaneous data are similar. Differential mortality bias affects our understanding of smoking habits of old cohorts and, therefore, of inter-generational patterns of smoking. Unless one focuses on the young, policy recommendations based on unadjusted smoking rates may be misleading. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Coe, Kirsten K.; Sparks, Jed P.; Housman, David C.; Zelikova, Tamara J.; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to <2% after only one growing season, whereas increased temperature had no effect. Laboratory measurements identified a physiological mechanism behind the mortality: small precipitation events caused a negative moss carbon balance, whereas larger events maintained net carbon uptake. Multiple metrics of nitrogen cycling were notably different with moss mortality and had significant implications for soil fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

[Prognostic factors of early 30-day mortality in elderly patients admitted to an emergency department].

PubMed

Morales Erazo, Alexander; Cardona Arango, Doris

The main aim of this study was to identify the variables related to early mortality in the elderly at the time of admission to the emergency department. Using probability sampling, the study included patients 60 years old or older of both genders who were admitted for observation to the emergency department of the University Hospital of Nariño, ¿Colombia? in 2015. Using a questionnaire designed for this study, some multidimensional features that affect the health of the elderly were collected (demographic, clinical, psychological, functional, and social variables). The patients were then followed-up for 30 days in order to determine the mortality rate during this time. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions and survival analysis were performed. Data were collected from 246 patients, with a mean age of 75.27 years and the majority female. The 30-day mortality rate was 15%. The variables most associated with death were: being female, temperature problems, initial diagnosis of neoplasia, and unable to walk independently in the emergency department. It is possible to determine the multidimensional factors present in the older patient admitted to an emergency department that could affect their 30-day mortality prognosis. and which should be intervened. Copyright © 2017 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Elevated levels of circulating thyroid hormone do not cause the medical sequelae of hyperthyroidism.

PubMed

Kelly, Tammas; Denmark, Lawrence; Lieberman, Daniel Z

2016-11-03

Clinicians have been reluctant to use high dose thyroid (HDT) to treat affective disorders because high circulating levels of thyroid hormone have traditionally been equated with hyperthyroidism, and understood as the cause of the medical sequelae of hyperthyroidism, such as osteoporosis and cardiac abnormalities. This conclusion is not supported by (HDT) research. A literature review of research related to the morbidity and mortality of HDT treatment was performed. There exists a large body of research involving the use of HDT treatment to prevent the recurrence of differentiated thyroid cancer and to treat affective disorders. A review of this literature finds a lack of support for HDT as a cause of osteoporosis, nor is there support for an increase in morbidity or mortality associated with HDT. This finding contrasts with the well-established morbidity and mortality associated with Graves' disease, thyroiditis, and other endogenous forms of hyperthyroidism. The lack of evidence that exogenous HDT causes osteoporosis, cardiac abnormalities or increases mortality compared with the significant morbidity and mortality of hyperthyroidism requires an alternative cause for the medical sequelae of hyperthyroidism. One possibility is an autoimmune mechanism. High circulating levels of thyroid hormone is not the cause of the sequela of hyperthyroidism. The reluctance to using high dose thyroid is unwarranted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

50 CFR 216.245 - Requirements for monitoring and reporting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... allow) if the specified activity identified in § 216.240(c) is thought to have resulted in the mortality... adaptive management tool shall include: (1) A method for prioritizing monitoring projects that clearly...) conducted within the southern NARW critical habitat plus 5 nm buffer area. The Navy shall include (in the...

Effect of Asian dust storms on mortality in three Asian cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyewon; Honda, Yasushi; Lim, Youn-Hee; Guo, Yue Leon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kim, Ho

2014-06-01

Asian dust storms (ADS) have affected several Asian countries and have been a major concern due to adverse effects on public health. The occurrence of ADS differs in each country based on geographical features and distance from the storms' origin. Many studies have reported significant associations between ADS and morbidity. However, regarding the association between ADS and mortality, only a few studies have found statistically significant ADS effects in Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Accordingly, this study aimed to examine the effects of ADS on daily mortality in three Asian cities (Seoul, South Korea; Taipei, Taiwan; and Kitakyushu, Japan) and to explore the differences in the extent of effects in each city. We performed time-series analyses using a generalized additive model (GAM) with Quasi-Poisson regressions. Deaths due to accidents or external causes were excluded. We used a dummy variable as an indicator of ADS and considered lag effects of ADS. Stratified analyses by disease and age and sensitivity analyses controlling for NO2, SO2, and PM10 were also conducted respectively. Additionally, influenza epidemics were adjusted for considering seasonal patterns, and a meta-analysis was performed. We reported results as excess mortality by percentage due to Asian dust storms. We found significant excess mortality in Seoul and Kitakyushu as follows. In Seoul, ADS showed adverse effects on mortality under 65 years old (lag 2: 4.44%, lag 3: 5%, lag 4: 4.39%). In Kitakyushu, ADS had adverse effects on respiratory mortality (lag 2: 18.82%). Contradictory to results in Seoul and Kitakyushu, ADS seemed to have a protective effect in Taipei: total non-accidental mortality (lag 0: -2.77%, lag 1: -3.24%), mortality over 65 years old (lag 0: -3.35%, lag 1: -3.29%) and respiratory mortality (lag 0: -10.62%, lag 1: -9.67%). Sensitivity analyses showed similar findings as the main results. Our findings suggest that ADS may affect mortality in several Asian cities, and that a dust storm warning system could help protect people from dust storms.

76 FR 69123 - Airworthiness Directives; MD Helicopters, Inc. Model MD900 Helicopters

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-08

... complying with paragraphs (a) through (e) of this AD, you may replace both VSCS tube adapters, P/N 500N7218-1, with airworthy VSCS tube adapters, P/N 900C2010303-101. If you install VSCS tube adapters, P/N... each affected tube adapter with a newly-designed tube adapter, which provides terminating action for...

Adaptation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in experimental mouse models.

PubMed

Prokopyeva, E A; Sobolev, I A; Prokopyev, M V; Shestopalov, A M

2016-04-01

In the present study, three mouse-adapted variants of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus were obtained by lung-to-lung passages of BALB/c, C57BL/6z and CD1 mice. The significantly increased virulence and pathogenicity of all of the mouse-adapted variants induced 100% mortality in the adapted mice. Genetic analysis indicated that the increased virulence of all of the mouse-adapted variants reflected the incremental acquisition of several mutations in PB2, PB1, HA, NP, NA, and NS2 proteins. Identical amino acid substitutions were also detected in all of the mouse-adapted variants of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, including PB2 (K251R), PB1 (V652A), NP (I353V), NA (I106V, N248D) and NS1 (G159E). Apparently, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus easily adapted to the host after serial passages in the lungs, inducing 100% lethality in the last experimental group. However, cross-challenge revealed that not all adapted variants are pathogenic for different laboratory mice. Such important results should be considered when using the influenza mice model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Congestive heart failure, spouses' support and the couple's sleep situation: a critical incident technique analysis.

PubMed

Broström, Anders; Strömberg, Anna; Dahlström, Ulf; Fridlund, Bengt

2003-03-01

Sleep related breathing disorders are common as well as a poor prognostic sign associated with higher mortality in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). These patients often have a shorter total duration of sleep, disturbed sleep structure and increased daytime sleepiness, which can negatively affect all dimensions of the life situation. The spouse has an important role in supporting the patient in relation to sleep disorders, but this role may be adversely affected by the sleep situation of the couple. The aim of this study was to describe decisive situations that influence spouses' support to patients with CHF in relation to the couple's sleep situation. A qualitative descriptive design using critical incident technique was employed. Incidents were collected by means of interviews with 25 spouses of patients with CHF, strategically selected from two hospital-based specialist clinics in southern Sweden. Two main areas emerged in the analysis: support stimulating situations and support inhibiting situations. Support stimulating situations described how spouses' support was positively affected by their own adaptation in psychosocial or practical situations, and receiving help from others. Support inhibiting situations described how the spouses' support was negatively affected by sleep disturbances as a result of the patient's symptoms, anxiety in relation to the disease, limitations as a result of the sleeping habits, dissatisfaction with care related to the sleep situation, and being left to cope alone with the problems. An increased understanding of the stimulating and inhibiting situations influencing spouses' support for patients with CHF can guide health care personnel in deciding if an intervention is needed to improve the sleep situation for patient and spouse.

Pre-operative stroke and neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in infective endocarditis patients.

PubMed

Diab, Mahmoud; Guenther, Albrecht; Sponholz, Christoph; Lehmann, Thomas; Faerber, Gloria; Matz, Anna; Franz, Marcus; Witte, Otto W; Pletz, Mathias W; Doenst, Torsten

2016-10-01

Infective endocarditis (IE) is still associated with high morbidity and mortality. The impact of pre-operative stroke on mortality and long-term survival is controversial. In addition, data on the severity of neurological disability due to pre-operative stroke are scarce. We analysed the impact of pre-operative stroke and the severity of its related neurological disability on short- and long-term outcome. We retrospectively reviewed our data from patients operated for left-sided IE between 01/2007 and 04/2013. We performed univariate (Chi-Square and independent samples t test) and multivariate analyses. Among 308 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac surgery for left-sided IE, pre-operative stroke was present in 87 (28.2 %) patients. Patients with pre-operative stroke had a higher pre-operative risk profile than patient without it: higher Charlson comorbidity index (8.1 ± 2.6 vs. 6.6 ± 3.3) and higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus infection (43 vs. 17 %) and septic shock (37 vs. 19 %). In-hospital mortality was equal but 5-year survival was significantly worse with pre-operative stroke (33.1 % vs. 45 %, p = 0.006). 5-year survival was worst in patients with severe neurological disability compared to mild disability (19.0 vs. 0.58 %, p = 0.002). However, neither pre-operative stroke nor the degree of neurological disability appeared as an independent risk factor for short or long-term mortality by multivariate analysis. Pre-operative stroke and the severity of neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. It appears that patients with pre-operative stroke present with a generally higher risk profile. This information may substantially affect decision-making.

Factors affecting anatomical region of injury, severity, and mortality for road trauma in a high-income developing country: lessons for prevention.

PubMed

Eid, Hani O; Barss, Peter; Adam, Shehabeldin H; Torab, Fawaz Chikh; Lunsjo, Karl; Grivna, Michal; Abu-Zidan, Fikri M

2009-07-01

To study the factors affecting anatomical region of injury, severity, and mortality among road users in United Arab Emirates so as to improve preventive measures. Data of the Trauma Registry of Al Ain city were collected prospectively over 3 years (2003-2006) at the main trauma hospital. For traffic injuries, the following were assessed: gender, nationality, road user type, anatomical region(s) of injury, systolic blood pressure on admission, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Injury Severity Score (ISS), and mortality. Analysis included frequencies, cross-tabulations, and logistic regression. There were 1070 patients, 89% male, 25% UAE nationals, and with a mean age of 31 years. Expatriates, mainly from non-Arabic speaking, low-income countries, accounted for 88% of injured pedestrians, whilst nationals were overrepresented among vehicle occupants (29%), and motorcyclists 37%. Injuries of the extremities and head were frequent among pedestrians, motorcyclists, and bicyclists, whilst head and spine injuries were most common among front and rear vehicle occupants and drivers. The median ISS was five for pedestrians and four for all other road user types, including rear vehicle occupants. The mean hospitalisation was 9.7 days; 13% of patients were admitted to ICU with mean stay of 6.5 days. Overall mortality was 4%; pedestrians accounted for 61% of deaths. Predictors of mortality were GCS (p<0.001), ISS (p<0.01) and systolic blood pressure on admission (p<0.03). Head injury was a major factor affecting mortality, followed by injury severity and hypotension. To reduce injury incidence and severity, legislation and education are needed to ensure use of seat belts by all vehicle occupants including rear passengers, high-visibility devices by other road users, helmets by motorcyclists and bicyclists, protective clothing and boots for motorcyclists, and traffic engineering for pedestrians.

CO2 and N-fertilization effects on fine-root length, production, and mortality: a 4-year ponderosa pine study.

PubMed

Phillips, Donald L; Johnson, Mark G; Tingey, David T; Storm, Marjorie J; Ball, J Timothy; Johnson, Dale W

2006-06-01

We conducted a 4-year study of juvenile Pinus ponderosa fine root (< or =2 mm) responses to atmospheric CO2 and N-fertilization. Seedlings were grown in open-top chambers at three CO2 levels (ambient, ambient+175 mumol/mol, ambient+350 mumol/mol) and three N-fertilization levels (0, 10, 20 g m(-2) year(-1)). Length and width of individual roots were measured from minirhizotron video images bimonthly over 4 years starting when the seedlings were 1.5 years old. Neither CO2 nor N-fertilization treatments affected the seasonal patterns of root production or mortality. Yearly values of fine-root length standing crop (m m(-2)), production (m m(-2) year(-1)), and mortality (m m(-2) year(-1)) were consistently higher in elevated CO2 treatments throughout the study, except for mortality in the first year; however, the only statistically significant CO2 effects were in the fine-root length standing crop (m m(-2)) in the second and third years, and production and mortality (m m(-2) year(-1)) in the third year. Higher mortality (m m(-2) year(-1)) in elevated CO2 was due to greater standing crop rather than shorter life span, as fine roots lived longer in elevated CO2. No significant N effects were noted for annual cumulative production, cumulative mortality, or mean standing crop. N availability did not significantly affect responses of fine-root standing crop, production, or mortality to elevated CO2. Multi-year studies at all life stages of trees are important to characterize belowground responses to factors such as atmospheric CO2 and N-fertilization. This study showed the potential for juvenile ponderosa pine to increase fine-root C pools and C fluxes through root mortality in response to elevated CO2.

Impaired Respiratory Function and Heightened Pulmonary Inflammation in Episodic Binge Ethanol Intoxication and Burn Injury

PubMed Central

Shults, Jill A.; Curtis, Brenda J.; Chen, Michael M.; O'Halloran, Eileen B.; Ramirez, Luis; Kovacs, Elizabeth J.

2015-01-01

Clinical data indicate that cutaneous burn injuries covering greater than ten percent total body surface area are associated with significant morbidity and mortality, where pulmonary complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), contribute to nearly half of all patient deaths. Approximately 50% of burn patients are intoxicated at the time of hospital admission, which increases days on ventilators by three-fold, and doubles length of hospital admittance, compared to non-intoxicated burn patients. The most common drinking pattern in the United States is binge drinking, where one rapidly consumes alcoholic beverages (4 for women, 5 for men) in 2 hours and an estimated 38 million Americans binge drink, often several times per month. Experimental data demonstrate a single binge ethanol exposure prior to scald injury, impairs innate and adaptive immune responses, thereby enhancing infection susceptibility and amplifying pulmonary inflammation, neutrophil infiltration, and edema, and is associated with increased mortality. Since these characteristics are similar to those observed in ARDS burn patients, our study objective was to determine whether ethanol intoxication and burn injury and the subsequent pulmonary congestion affects physiological parameters of lung function using non-invasive and unrestrained plethysmography in a murine model system. Furthermore, to mirror young adult binge drinking patterns, and to determine the effect of multiple ethanol exposures on pulmonary inflammation, we utilized an episodic binge ethanol exposure regimen, where mice were exposed to ethanol for a total of 6 days (3 days ethanol, 4 days rest, 3 days ethanol) prior to burn injury. Our analyses demonstrate mice exposed to episodic binge ethanol and burn injury have higher mortality, increased pulmonary congestion and neutrophil infiltration, elevated neutrophil chemoattractants, and respiratory dysfunction, compared to burn or ethanol intoxication alone. Overall, our study identifies plethysmography as a useful tool for characterizing respiratory function in a murine burn model and for future identification of therapeutic compounds capable of restoring pulmonary functionality. PMID:26364264

Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: a proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP.

PubMed

Voorhees, A Scott; Fann, Neal; Fulcher, Charles; Dolwick, Patrick; Hubbell, Bryan; Bierwagen, Britta; Morefield, Philip

2011-02-15

Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and is likely to increase heat-related human health morbidity and mortality risks. The objective of this work was to develop a proof-of-concept approach for estimating excess heat-related premature deaths in the continental United States resulting from potential changes in future temperature using the BenMAP model. In this approach we adapt the methods and tools that the US Environmental Protection Agency uses to assess air pollution health impacts by incorporating temperature modeling and heat mortality health impact functions. This new method demonstrates the ability to apply the existing temperature-health literature to quantify prospective changes in climate-sensitive heat-related mortality. We compared estimates of future temperature with and without climate change and applied heat-mortality health functions to estimate relative changes in heat-related premature mortality. Using the A1B emissions scenario, we applied the GISS-II global circulation model downscaled to 36-km using MM5 and formatted using the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor. For averaged temperatures derived from the 5 years 2048-2052 relative to 1999-2003 we estimated for the warm season May-September a national U.S. estimate of annual incidence of heat-related mortality to be 3700-3800 from all causes, 3500 from cardiovascular disease, and 21 000-27 000 from nonaccidental death, applying various health impact functions. Our estimates of mortality, produced to validate the application of a new methodology, suggest the importance of quantifying heat impacts in economic assessments of climate change.

Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-05-01

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conventional and advanced time series estimation: application to the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database, 1993-2006.

PubMed

Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

2011-02-01

Time series analysis has seen limited application in the biomedical Literature. The utility of conventional and advanced time series estimators was explored for intensive care unit (ICU) outcome series. Monthly mean time series, 1993-2006, for hospital mortality, severity-of-illness score (APACHE III), ventilation fraction and patient type (medical and surgical), were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Analyses encompassed geographical seasonal mortality patterns, series structural time changes, mortality series volatility using autoregressive moving average and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models in which predicted variances are updated adaptively, and bivariate and multivariate (vector error correction models) cointegrating relationships between series. The mortality series exhibited marked seasonality, declining mortality trend and substantial autocorrelation beyond 24 lags. Mortality increased in winter months (July-August); the medical series featured annual cycling, whereas the surgical demonstrated long and short (3-4 months) cycling. Series structural breaks were apparent in January 1995 and December 2002. The covariance stationary first-differenced mortality series was consistent with a seasonal autoregressive moving average process; the observed conditional-variance volatility (1993-1995) and residual Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity effects entailed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model, preferred by information criterion and mean model forecast performance. Bivariate cointegration, indicating long-term equilibrium relationships, was established between mortality and severity-of-illness scores at the database level and for categories of ICUs. Multivariate cointegration was demonstrated for {log APACHE III score, log ICU length of stay, ICU mortality and ventilation fraction}. A system approach to understanding series time-dependence may be established using conventional and advanced econometric time series estimators. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate-induced mortality of spruce stands in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Im, Sergei T.; Dvinskaya, Maria L.; Golukov, Alexei S.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2015-12-01

The aim of this work is an analysis of the causes of spruce (Picea abies L.) decline and mortality in Belarus. The analysis was based on forest inventory and Landsat satellite (land cover classification, climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vapor pressure deficit, SPEI drought index)), and GRACE-derived soil moisture estimation (equivalent of water thickness anomalies, EWTA). We found a difference in spatial patterns between dead stands and all stands (i.e., before mortality). Dead stands were located preferentially on relief features with higher water stress risk (i.e., higher elevations, steeper slopes, south and southwestern exposure). Spruce mortality followed a series of repeated droughts between 1990 and 2010. Mortality was negatively correlated with air humidity (r = -0.52), and precipitation (r = -0.57), and positively correlated with the prior year vapor pressure deficit (r = 0.47), and drought increase (r = 0.57). Mortality increased with the increase in occurrence of spring frosts (r = 0.5), and decreased with an increase in winter cloud cover (r = -0.37). Spruce mortality was negatively correlated with snow water accumulation (r = -0.81) and previous year anomalies in water soil content (r = -0.8). Weakened by water stress, spruce stands were attacked by pests and phytopathogens. Overall, spruce mortality in Belarussian forests was caused by drought episodes and drought increase in synergy with pest and phytopathogen attacks. Vast Picea abies mortality in Belarus and adjacent areas of Russia and Eastern Europe is a result of low adaptation of that species to increased drought. This indicates the necessity of spruce replacement by drought-tolerant indigenous (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Querqus robur) or introduced (e.g., Larix sp. or Pseudotsuga menzieslii) species to obtain sustainable forest growth management.

Climate-Induced Mortality of Spruce Stands in Belarus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Im, Sergei T.; Dvinskaya, Maria L.; Golukov, Alexei S.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2015-01-01

The aim of this work is an analysis of the causes of spruce (Picea abies L.) decline and mortality in Belarus. The analysis was based on forest inventory and Landsat satellite (land cover classification, climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vapor pressure deficit, SPEI drought index)), and GRACE-derived soil moisture estimation (equivalent of water thickness anomalies, EWTA). We found a difference in spatial patterns between dead stands and all stands (i.e., before mortality). Dead stands were located preferentially on relief features with higher water stress risk (i.e., higher elevations, steeper slopes, south and southwestern exposure). Spruce mortality followed a series of repeated droughts between 1990 and 2010. Mortality was negatively correlated with air humidity (r = -0.52), and precipitation (r = -0.57), and positively correlated with the prior year vapor pressure deficit (r = 0.47), and drought increase (r = 0.57). Mortality increased with the increase in occurrence of spring frosts (r = 0.5), and decreased with an increase in winter cloud cover (r = -0.37). Spruce mortality was negatively correlated with snow water accumulation (r = -0.81) and previous year anomalies in water soil content (r = -0.8). Weakened by water stress, spruce stands were attacked by pests and phytopathogens. Overall, spruce mortality in Belarussian forests was caused by drought episodes and drought increase in synergy with pest and phytopathogen attacks. Vast Picea abies mortality in Belarus and adjacent areas of Russia and Eastern Europe is a result of low adaptation of that species to increased drought. This indicates the necessity of spruce replacement by drought-tolerant indigenous (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Querqus robur) or introduced (e.g., Larix sp. or Pseudotsuga menzieslii) species to obtain sustainable forest growth management.

Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Michael J.; Sheridan, Scott C.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the relationship between all-cause mortality and extreme temperature events (ETEs) from 1975 to 2004. For 50 U.S. locations, these heat and cold events were defined based on location-specific thresholds of daily mean apparent temperature. Heat days were defined by a 3-day mean apparent temperature greater than the 95th percentile while extreme heat days were greater than the 97.5th percentile. Similarly, calculations for cold and extreme cold days relied upon the 5th and 2.5th percentiles. A distributed lag non-linear model assessed the relationship between mortality and ETEs for a cumulative 14-day period following exposure. Subsets for season and duration effect denote the differences between early- and late-season as well as short and long ETEs. While longer-lasting heat days resulted in elevated mortality, early season events also impacted mortality outcomes. Over the course of the summer season, heat-related risk decreased, though prolonged heat days still had a greater influence on mortality. Unlike heat, cold-related risk was greatest in more southerly locations. Risk was highest for early season cold events and decreased over the course of the winter season. Statistically, short episodes of cold showed the highest relative risk, suggesting unsettled weather conditions may have some relationship to cold-related mortality. For both heat and cold, results indicate higher risk to the more extreme thresholds. Risk values provide further insight into the role of adaptation, geographical variability, and acclimatization with respect to ETEs.

Adaptation of community health worker-delivered behavioral activation for torture survivors in Kurdistan, Iraq.

PubMed

Magidson, J F; Lejuez, C W; Kamal, T; Blevins, E J; Murray, L K; Bass, J K; Bolton, P; Pagoto, S

2015-12-01

Growing evidence supports the use of Western therapies for the treatment of depression, trauma, and stress delivered by community health workers (CHWs) in conflict-affected, resource-limited countries. A recent randomized controlled trial (Bolton et al . 2014 a ) supported the efficacy of two CHW-delivered interventions, cognitive processing therapy (CPT) and brief behavioral activation treatment for depression (BATD), for reducing depressive symptoms and functional impairment among torture survivors in the Kurdish region of Iraq. This study describes the adaptation of the CHW-delivered BATD approach delivered in this trial (Bolton et al .2014 a ), informed by the Assessment-Decision-Administration-Production-Topical experts-Integration-Training-Testing (ADAPT-ITT) framework for intervention adaptation (Wingood & DiClemente, 2008). Cultural modifications, adaptations for low-literacy, and tailored training and supervision for non-specialist CHWs are presented, along with two clinical case examples to illustrate delivery of the adapted intervention in this setting. Eleven CHWs, a study psychiatrist, and the CHW clinical supervisor were trained in BATD. The adaptation process followed the ADAPT-ITT framework and was iterative with significant input from the on-site supervisor and CHWs. Modifications were made to fit Kurdish culture, including culturally relevant analogies, use of stickers for behavior monitoring, cultural modifications to behavioral contracts, and including telephone-delivered sessions to enhance feasibility. BATD was delivered by CHWs in a resource-poor, conflict-affected area in Kurdistan, Iraq, with some important modifications, including low-literacy adaptations, increased cultural relevancy of clinical materials, and tailored training and supervision for CHWs. Barriers to implementation, lessons learned, and recommendations for future efforts to adapt behavioral therapies for resource-limited, conflict-affected areas are discussed.

Exogenous determinants of early-life conditions, and mortality later in life.

PubMed

van den Berg, Gerard J; Doblhammer, Gabriele; Christensen, Kaare

2009-05-01

We analyze causal effects of conditions early in life on the individual mortality rate later in life. Conditions early in life are captured by transitory features of the macro-environment around birth, notably the state of the business cycle around birth, but also food price deviations, weather indicators, and demographic indicators. We argue that these features can only affect high-age mortality by way of the individual early-life conditions. Moreover, they are exogenous from the individual point of view, which is a methodological advantage compared to the use of unique characteristics of the newborn individual or his or her family or household as early-life indicators. We collected national annual time-series data on the above-mentioned indicators, and we combine these to the individual data records from the Danish Twin Registry covering births in 1873-1906. The empirical analyses (mostly based on the estimation of duration models) indicate a significant negative causal effect of economic conditions early in life on individual mortality rates at higher ages. If the national economic performance in the year of birth exceeds its trend value (i.e., if the business cycle is favorable) then the mortality rate later in life is lower. The implied effect on the median lifetime of those who survive until age 35 is about 10 months. A systematic empirical exploration of all macro-indicators reveals that economic conditions in the first years after birth also affect mortality rates later in life.

Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newby, Jesse R.; Mills, L. Scott; Ruth, Toni K.; Pletscher, Daniel H.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Quigley, Howard B.; Murphy, Kerry M.; DeSimone, Rich

2013-01-01

An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western Montana Garnet Mountain system were exposed to greater human-induced mortality, which changed over the study due to the closure of a 915 km2 area to hunting. The NGYE’s population growth depended on inter-population movements, as did its ability to act as a source to the larger region. The heavily hunted Garnet area was a sink with a declining population until the hunting closure, after which it became a source with positive intrinsic growth and a 16× increase in emigration. We also examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of individual dispersal attributes (emigration, dispersal distance, establishment success) of subadult pumas (N = 126). Human-caused mortality was found to negatively impact all three dispersal components. Our results demonstrate the influence of human-induced mortality on not only within population vital rates, but also inter-population vital rates, affecting the magnitude and mechanisms of local population’s contribution to the larger metapopulation.

Why is infant mortality higher in boys than in girls? A new hypothesis based on preconception environment and evidence from a large sample of twins.

PubMed

Pongou, Roland

2013-04-01

Infant mortality is higher in boys than girls in most parts of the world. This has been explained by sex differences in genetic and biological makeup, with boys being biologically weaker and more susceptible to diseases and premature death. At the same time, recent studies have found that numerous preconception or prenatal environmental factors affect the probability of a baby being conceived male or female. I propose that these environmental factors also explain sex differences in mortality. I contribute a new methodology of distinguishing between child biology and preconception environment by comparing male-female differences in mortality across opposite-sex twins, same-sex twins, and all twins. Using a large sample of twins from sub-Saharan Africa, I find that both preconception environment and child biology increase the mortality of male infants, but the effect of biology is substantially smaller than the literature suggests. I also estimate the interacting effects of biology with some intrauterine and external environmental factors, including birth order within a twin pair, social status, and climate. I find that a twin is more likely to be male if he is the firstborn, born to an educated mother, or born in certain climatic conditions. Male firstborns are more likely to survive than female firstborns, but only during the neonatal period. Finally, mortality is not affected by the interactions between biology and climate or between biology and social status.

Preparation and evaluation of chicken embryo-adapted fowl adenovirus serotype 4 vaccine in broiler chickens.

PubMed

Mansoor, Muhammad Khalid; Hussain, Iftikhar; Arshad, Muhammad; Muhammad, Ghulam

2011-02-01

The current study was planned to develop an efficient vaccine against hydropericardium syndrome virus (HSV). Currently, formalin-inactivated liver organ vaccines failed to protect the Pakistan broiler industry from this destructive disease of economic importance. A field isolate of the pathogenic hydropericardium syndrome virus was adapted to chicken embryos after four blind passages. The chicken embryo-adapted virus was further serially passaged (12 times) to get complete attenuation. Groups of broiler chickens free from maternal antibodies against HSV at the age of 14 days were immunized either with 16th passage attenuated HSV vaccine or commercially formalized liver organ vaccine. The antibody response, measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was significantly higher (P < 0.05) in the group immunized with the 16th passage attenuated HSV vaccine compared to the group immunized with liver organ vaccine at 7, 14, and 21 days post-immunization. At 24 days of age, the broiler chickens in each group were challenged with 10(3.83) embryo infectious dose(50) of pathogenic HSV and were observed for 7 days post-challenge. Vaccination with the 16th passage attenuated HSV gave 94.73% protection as validated on the basis of clinical signs (5.26%), gross lesions in the liver and heart (5.26%), histopathological lesions in the liver (1.5 ± 0.20), and mortality (5.26%). The birds inoculated with liver organ vaccine showed significantly low (p < 0.05; 55%) protection estimated on the basis of clinical signs (40%), gross lesions in the liver and heart (45%), histopathological lesions in the liver (2.7 ± 0.72), and mortality (35%). Birds in the unvaccinated control group showed high morbidity (84%), mortality (70%), gross (85%), and histopathological lesions (3.79 ± 0.14) with only 10% protection. In conclusion, this newly developed HSV vaccine proved to be immunogenic and has potential for controlling HSV infections in chickens.

Helicopter transport: help or hindrance?

PubMed

Plevin, Rebecca E; Evans, Heather L

2011-12-01

Traumatic injury continues to be a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the year 2011. In addition, the healthcare expenditures and lost years of productivity represent significant economic cost to the affected individuals and their communities. Helicopters have been used to transport trauma patients for the past 40 years, but there are conflicting data on the benefits of helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) in civilian trauma systems. Debate persists regarding the mortality benefit, cost-effectiveness, and safety of helicopter usage, largely because the studies to date vary widely in design and generalizability to trauma systems serving heterogeneous populations and geography. Strict criteria should be established to determine when HEMS transport is warranted and most likely to positively affect patient outcomes. Individual trauma systems should conduct an assessment of their resources and needs in order to most effectively incorporate helicopter transport into their triage model. Research suggests that HEMS improves mortality in certain subgroups of trauma patients, both after transport from the scene of injury and following interfacility transport. Studies examining the cost-effectiveness of HEMS had mixed results, but the majority found that it is a cost-effective tool. Safety remains an issue of contention with HEMS transport, as helicopters are associated with significant safety risk to the crew and patient. However, this risk may be justified provided there is a substantial mortality benefit to be gained. Recent studies suggest that strict criteria should be established to determine when helicopter transport is warranted and most likely to positively affect patient outcomes. Individual trauma systems should conduct an assessment of their resources and needs in order to most effectively incorporate HEMS into their triage model. This will enable regional hospitals to determine if the costs and safety risks associated with HEMS are worthwhile given the potential benefits to patient morbidity and mortality.

Effects of competition and life history stage on the expression of local adaptation in two native bunchgrasses

Treesearch

Rice Kevin J.; Knapp Eric E.

2008-01-01

Concerns about the use of genetically appropriate material in restoration often focus on questions of local adaptation. Many reciprocal transplant studies have demonstrated local adaptation in native plant species, but very few have examined how interspecific competition affects the expression of adaptive variation. Our study examined...

Left to Right: Representational Biases for Numbers and the Effect of Visuomotor Adaptation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loftus, Andrea M.; Nicholls, Michael E. R.; Mattingley, Jason B.; Bradshaw, John L.

2008-01-01

Adaptation to right-shifting prisms improves left neglect for mental number line bisection. This study examined whether adaptation affects the mental number line in normal participants. Thirty-six participants completed a mental number line task before and after adaptation to either: left-shifting prisms, right-shifting prisms or control…

Mortality and Morbidity Risks and Economic Behavior

PubMed Central

Stoler, Avraham; Meltzer, David

2012-01-01

There are theoretical reasons to expect that high risk of mortality or morbidity during young adulthood decreases investment in human capital. However, investigation of this hypothesis is complicated by a variety of empirical challenges, including difficulties in inferring causation due to omitted variables and reverse causation. For example, to compare two groups with substantially different mortality rates, one typically has to use samples from different countries or time periods, making it difficult to control for other relevant variables. Reverse causation is important because human capital investment can affect mortality and morbidity. To counter these problems, we collected data on human capital investments, fertility decisions, and other economic choices of people at risk for Huntington’s disease. Huntington’s disease is a fatal genetic disorder that introduces a large and exogenous risk of early mortality and morbidity. We find a strong negative relation between mortality and morbidity risks and human capital investment. PMID:22308067

Determinants of child nutrition and mortality in north-west Uganda.

PubMed

Vella, V; Tomkins, A; Borghesi, A; Migliori, G B; Adriko, B C; Crevatin, E

1992-01-01

An anthropometric survey of children aged 0-59 months in north-west Uganda in February-March 1987 indicated a high prevalence of stunting but little wasting. Use of unprotected water supplies in the dry season, prolonged breast-feeding, and age negatively affected nutrition; in contrast, parental education level improved nutrition. Mortality during the 12 months following the survey was higher among those who had low weight-for-age and weight-for-height, but children who had low height-for-age did not have higher mortality. Weight-for-age was the most sensitive predictor of mortality at specificities > 88%, while at lower specificity levels weight-for-height was the most sensitive. Children whose fathers' work was associated with the distillation of alcohol had a higher risk of mortality than other children. The lowest mortality was among children whose fathers were businessmen or who grew tobacco.

Transforming the Morbidity and Mortality Conference to Promote Safety and Quality in a PICU.

PubMed

Cifra, Christina L; Bembea, Melania M; Fackler, James C; Miller, Marlene R

2016-01-01

Determine the effectiveness of a structured systems-oriented morbidity and mortality conference in improving the process of reviewing and responding to adverse events in a PICU. Prospective time series analysis before and after implementation of a systems-oriented morbidity and mortality conference. Single tertiary referral PICU in Baltimore, MD. Thirty-three patients discussed before and 31 patients after implementation of a systems-oriented morbidity and mortality conference over a total of 20 morbidity and mortality conferences, from April 2013 to March 2014. Systems-oriented morbidity and mortality conference incorporating elements of medical incident analysis. There was a significant increase in meeting attendance (mean, 12 vs 31 attendees per morbidity and mortality conference; p < 0.001) after the systems-oriented morbidity and mortality conference was instituted. There was no significant difference in the mean number of cases suggested (4.2 vs 4.6) or discussed (3.3 vs 3.1) per morbidity and mortality conference. There was also no significant difference in the mean number of adverse events identified per morbidity and mortality conference (3.4 vs 4.3). However, there was an increase in the proportion of cases discussed using a standard case review tool, but this did not reach statistical significance (27% vs 45%; p = 0.231). Nevertheless, we observed a significant increase in the mean number of quality improvement interventions suggested (2.4 vs 5.6; p < 0.001) and implemented (1.7 vs 4.4; p < 0.001) per morbidity and mortality conference. All adverse event categories identified had corresponding interventions suggested after the systems-oriented morbidity and mortality conference was instituted compared with before (80% vs 100%). Intervention-to-adverse event ratios per category were also higher (mean, 0.6 vs 1.5). A structured systems-oriented PICU morbidity and mortality conference incorporating elements of medical incident analysis improves the process of reviewing and responding to adverse events by significantly increasing quality improvement interventions suggested and implemented. Future work would involve testing locally adapted versions of the systems-oriented morbidity and mortality conference in multiple inpatient settings.

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min

2013-01-01

Background: Climate change is anticipated to influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, estimates of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves are subject to large uncertainties and have not been projected under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated future heat wave mortality in the eastern United States (approximately 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and investigated sources of uncertainty. Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057–2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. We apportioned the sources of uncertainty in excess mortality estimates using a variance-decomposition method. Results: Estimates suggest that excess mortality attributable to heat waves in the eastern United States would result in 200–7,807 deaths/year (mean 2,379 deaths/year) in 2057–2059. Average excess mortality projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1,403 and 3,556 deaths/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern states and eastern coastal areas (excluding Maine). The major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non–heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: Mortality risks from future heat waves may be an order of magnitude higher than the mortality risks reported in 2002–2004, with thousands of heat wave–related deaths per year in the study area projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. Substantial spatial variability in county-level heat mortality estimates suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data. Citation: Wu J, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Kim YM, Liu Y. 2014. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 122:10–16; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306670 PMID:24192064

An Influence of Changes of Heliogeophysical Conditions on Biological Systems: Some Results of Studies Conducted in the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babayev, E. S.; Allahverdiyeva, A. A.; Mustafa, F. R.; Shustarev, P. N.

2007-08-01

Part of major results of complex (experimental and statistical) studies carried out in the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences on possible influence of changes of heliogeophysical conditions on the emotional - affective sphere and personal characteristics of functionally healthy persons as well as on the sudden cardiac death (SCD) mortality in middle latitudes is described in this paper. It is revealed that geomagnetic disturbances affect mainly the emotional and vegetative spheres of human beings while characteristics, reflecting personality properties, do not undergo significant changes. Results show that number of SCD displays certain periodicities well-known in solar-terrestrial relations. SCD mortality is affected by changes in solar-geomagnetic (inversely) and cosmic ray (directly) activities alongside medical, social and other influence factors.

A novel method for murine intrahepatic islet transplantation via cecal vein.

PubMed

Byun, Nari; Kim, Hyun-Je; Min, Byoung-Hoon; Shin, Jun-Seop; Yoon, Il-Hee; Kim, Jong-Min; Kim, Yong-Hee; Park, Chung-Gyu

2015-12-01

Islet transplantation is one of the most beneficial treatment modality to treat type 1 diabetic patients with frequent hypoglycemic unawareness. In clinical setting, human islets are infused via portal vein and are settled in the end-portal venules in the liver. However, mouse islets are transplanted into kidney subcapsule or liver through direct portal vein. These conventional transplantation methods have several drawbacks such as different physiological environments around the transplanted islets in kidney subcapsule from the liver and high mortality rate in direct portal vein approach. In this study, we introduced murine intrahepatic islet transplantation method via cecal vein to have the same surgical operation route in humans as well as guaranteeing low mortality rate after islet transplantation. With this protocol, consistent normoglycemia can be obtained in diabetic mice, while keeping operation-related mortality extremely low. This approach with easier accessibility and low mortality will make murine intrahepatic islet transplantation a useful model for studying immunological mechanisms such as strong innate and adaptive immune responses that occur in human islet transplantation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Students Losing Interest? How to Help them Adapt to Changes in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fawcett, Gay

1999-01-01

Discusses how reform affects students and how teachers can help them adapt to change. After explaining the principles of change and how they affect students, the paper examines the stages of change (comfortable dependence, anxiety, and comfortable independence); discusses students and the process of change; explains the supports that students need…

Evaluation of the Influence of Wording Changes and Course Type on Motivation Instrument Functioning in Chemistry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Komperda, Regis; Hosbein, Kathryn N.; Barbera, Jack

2018-01-01

Increased understanding of the importance of the affective domain in chemistry education research has led to the development and adaptation of instruments to measure chemistry-specific affective traits, including motivation. Many of these instruments are adapted from other fields by using the word "chemistry" in place of other…

Effectiveness of Adaptive Pretend Play on Affective Expression and Imagination of Children with Cerebral Palsy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsieh, Hsieh-Chun

2012-01-01

Purpose: Children with cerebral palsy (CP) have difficulty participating in role-pretending activities. The concept of adaptive play makes play accessible by modifying play materials for different needs or treatment goals for children with CP. This study examines the affective expressions and imagination in children with CP as a function of…

Density Dependence and Growth Rate: Evolutionary Effects on Resistance Development to Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis).

PubMed

Martinez, Jeannette C; Caprio, Michael A; Friedenberg, Nicholas A

2018-02-09

It has long been recognized that pest population dynamics can affect the durability of a pesticide, but dose remains the primary component of insect resistance management (IRM). For transgenic pesticidal traits such as Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner (Bacillales: Bacillaceae)), dose (measured as the mortality of susceptibles caused by a toxin) is a relatively fixed characteristic and often falls below the standard definition of high dose. Hence, it is important to understand how pest population dynamics modify durability and what targets they present for IRM. We used a deterministic model of a generic arthropod pest to examine how timing and strength of density dependence interacted with population growth rate and Bt mortality to affect time to resistance. As in previous studies, durability typically reached a minimum at intermediate doses. However, high population growth rates could eliminate benefits of high dose. The timing of density dependence had a more subtle effect. If density dependence operated simultaneously with Bt mortality, durability was insensitive to its strengths. However, if density dependence was driven by postselection densities, decreasing its strength could increase durability. The strength of density dependence could affect durability of both single traits and pyramids, but its influence depended on the timing of density dependence and size of the refuge. Our findings suggest the utility of a broader definition of high dose, one that incorporates population-dynamic context. That maximum growth rates and timing and strength of interactions causing density dependent mortality can all affect durability, also highlights the need for ecologically integrated approaches to IRM research. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Baccini, Michela; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lefebvre, Wouter; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Scott, Kristen; Spasenovska, Margarita

2016-05-16

Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100, and in a past time period (1986-2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026-2045, and more than quadruple in 2081-2100. When considering the impact in 2081-2100, sampling variability around the heat-mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

Aging Affects Adaptation to Sound-Level Statistics in Human Auditory Cortex.

PubMed

Herrmann, Björn; Maess, Burkhard; Johnsrude, Ingrid S

2018-02-21

Optimal perception requires efficient and adaptive neural processing of sensory input. Neurons in nonhuman mammals adapt to the statistical properties of acoustic feature distributions such that they become sensitive to sounds that are most likely to occur in the environment. However, whether human auditory responses adapt to stimulus statistical distributions and how aging affects adaptation to stimulus statistics is unknown. We used MEG to study how exposure to different distributions of sound levels affects adaptation in auditory cortex of younger (mean: 25 years; n = 19) and older (mean: 64 years; n = 20) adults (male and female). Participants passively listened to two sound-level distributions with different modes (either 15 or 45 dB sensation level). In a control block with long interstimulus intervals, allowing neural populations to recover from adaptation, neural response magnitudes were similar between younger and older adults. Critically, both age groups demonstrated adaptation to sound-level stimulus statistics, but adaptation was altered for older compared with younger people: in the older group, neural responses continued to be sensitive to sound level under conditions in which responses were fully adapted in the younger group. The lack of full adaptation to the statistics of the sensory environment may be a physiological mechanism underlying the known difficulty that older adults have with filtering out irrelevant sensory information. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Behavior requires efficient processing of acoustic stimulation. Animal work suggests that neurons accomplish efficient processing by adjusting their response sensitivity depending on statistical properties of the acoustic environment. Little is known about the extent to which this adaptation to stimulus statistics generalizes to humans, particularly to older humans. We used MEG to investigate how aging influences adaptation to sound-level statistics. Listeners were presented with sounds drawn from sound-level distributions with different modes (15 vs 45 dB). Auditory cortex neurons adapted to sound-level statistics in younger and older adults, but adaptation was incomplete in older people. The data suggest that the aging auditory system does not fully capitalize on the statistics available in sound environments to tune the perceptual system dynamically. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/381989-11$15.00/0.

A SCORING SYSTEM TO IMPROVE DECISION MAKING AND OUTCOMES IN THE ADAPTATION OF RECENTLY CAPTURED WHITE RHINOCEROSES (CERATOTHERIUM SIMUM) TO CAPTIVITY.

PubMed

Miller, Michele; Kruger, Milandie; Kruger, Marius; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Buss, Peter

2016-04-01

Ninety-four subadult and adult white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum) were captured between February and October, 2009-11, in Kruger National Park and placed in holding bomas prior to translocation to other locations within South Africa. A simple three-category system was developed based on appetite, fecal consistency/volume, and behavior to assess adaptation to bomas. Individual animal and group daily median scores were used to determine trends and when rhinoceroses had successfully adapted to the boma. Seventeen rhinoceroses did not adapt to boma confinement, and 16 were released (1 mortality). No differences in boma scores were observed between rhinoceroses that adapted and those that did not, until day 8, when the first significant differences were observed (adapted score=13 versus nonadapted score=10). The time to reach a boma score determined as successful adaptation (median 19 d) matched subjective observations, which was approximately 3 wk for most rhinoceroses. Unsuccessful adaptation was indicated by an individual boma score of less than 15, typically during the first 2 wk, or a declining trend in scores within the first 7-14 d. This scoring system can be used for most locations and could also be easily adapted to other areas in which rhinoceroses are held in captivity. This tool also provides important information for assessing welfare in newly captured rhinoceroses.

Adaptation and Validation of a Pediatric Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score and Evaluation of the Sepsis-3 Definitions in Critically Ill Children.

PubMed

Matics, Travis J; Sanchez-Pinto, L Nelson

2017-10-02

The Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) uses the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to grade organ dysfunction in adult patients with suspected infection. However, the SOFA score is not adjusted for age and therefore not suitable for children. To adapt and validate a pediatric version of the SOFA score (pSOFA) in critically ill children and to evaluate the Sepsis-3 definitions in patients with confirmed or suspected infection. This retrospective observational cohort study included all critically ill children 21 years or younger admitted to a 20-bed, multidisciplinary, tertiary pediatric intensive care unit between January 1, 2009 and August 1, 2016. Data on these children were obtained from an electronic health record database. The pSOFA score was developed by adapting the original SOFA score with age-adjusted cutoffs for the cardiovascular and renal systems and by expanding the respiratory criteria to include noninvasive surrogates of lung injury. Daily pSOFA scores were calculated from admission until day 28 of hospitalization, discharge, or death (whichever came first). Three additional pediatric organ dysfunction scores were calculated for comparison. Organ dysfunction measured by the pSOFA score, and sepsis and septic shock according to the Sepsis-3 definitions. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The daily pSOFA scores and additional pediatric organ dysfunction scores were compared. Performance was evaluated using the area under the curve. The pSOFA score was then used to assess the Sepsis-3 definitions in the subgroup of children with confirmed or suspected infection. In all, 6303 patients with 8711 encounters met inclusion criteria. Each encounter was treated independently. Of the 8482 survivors of hospital encounters, 4644 (54.7%) were male and the median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 69 (17-156) months. Among the 229 nonsurvivors, 127 (55.4%) were male with a median (IQR) age of 43 (8-144) months. In-hospital mortality was 2.6%. The maximum pSOFA score had excellent discrimination for in-hospital mortality, with an area under the curve of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.92-0.95). The pSOFA score had a similar or better performance than other pediatric organ dysfunction scores. According to the Sepsis-3 definitions, 1231 patients (14.1%) were classified as having sepsis and had a mortality rate of 12.1%, and 347 (4.0%) had septic shock and a mortality rate of 32.3%. Patients with sepsis were more likely to die than patients with confirmed or suspected infection but no sepsis (odds ratio, 18; 95% CI, 11-28). Of the 229 patients who died during their hospitalization, 149 (65.0%) had sepsis or septic shock during their course. The pSOFA score was adapted and validated with age-adjusted variables in critically ill children. Using the pSOFA score, the Sepsis-3 definitions were assessed in children with confirmed or suspected infection. This study is the first assessment, to date, of the Sepsis-3 definitions in critically ill children. Use of these definitions in children is feasible and shows promising results.

Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: Direct and indirect effects

Treesearch

Barbara J. Bentz; Jacques Regniere; Christopher J. Fettig; E. Matthew Hansen; Jane L. Hayes; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Rick G. Kelsey; Jose F. Negron; Steven J. Seybold

2010-01-01

Climatic changes are predicted to significantly affect the frequency and severity of disturbances that shape forest ecosystems. We provide a synthesis of climate change effects on native bark beetles, important mortality agents of conifers in western North America. Because of differences in temperature-dependent life-history strategies, including cold-induced mortality...

How Did Schooling Laws Improve Long-Term Health and Lower Mortality? WP 2006-23

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazumder, Bhashkar

2007-01-01

Recent evidence using compulsory schooling laws as instruments for education suggests that education has a causal effect on mortality (Lleras-Muney, 2005). However, little is known about how exactly education affects health. This paper uses compulsory schooling laws to try to identify how education impacts health and to indirectly assess the merit…

Socio-Ecological Factors Affecting Pregnant Women's Anemia Status in Freetown, Sierra Leone

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

M'Cormack, Fredanna; Drolet, Judy

2012-01-01

Background: Sierra Leone has high maternal mortality. Socio-ecological factors are considered contributing factors to this high mortality. Anemia is considered to be a direct cause of 4% of maternal deaths and an indirect cause of 20-40% of maternal deaths. Purpose: The current study explores socio-ecological contributing factors to the anemia…

Interacting disturbances: Wildfire severity affected by stage of forest disease invasion

Treesearch

Margaret Metz; Kerri Frangioso; Ross Meentemeyer; David Rizzo

2010-01-01

Sudden oak death (SOD) is an emerging forest disease causing extensive tree mortality in coastal California forests. Recent California wildfires provided an opportunity to test a major assumption underlying discussions of SOD and land management: SOD mortality will increase fire severity. We examined pre-fire fuels from host species in a forest monitoring plot network...

Landscape-scale analysis of aboveground tree carbon stocks affected by mountain pine beetles in Idaho

Treesearch

Benjamin Bright; J. A. Hicke; A. T. Hudak

2012-01-01

Bark beetle outbreaks kill billions of trees in western North America, and the resulting tree mortality can significantly impact local and regional carbon cycling. However, substantial variability in mortality occurs within outbreak areas. Our objective was to quantify landscape-scale effects of beetle infestations on aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks using field...

On Relating Health Care Policy to the Provision of Health Care to Black Families.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Darity, William A.

This paper addresses health and social issues as well as other socioeconomic problems which affect the black family, and the development of appropriate policy and programs to deal with those problems. Data on infant mortality, life expectancy, maternal mortality, physician and dental visits, and some selected death rates from specific causes are…

Predictors, Including Blood, Urine, Anthropometry, and Nutritional Indices, of All-Cause Mortality among Institutionalized Individuals with Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohwada, Hiroko; Nakayama, Takeo; Tomono, Yuji; Yamanaka, Keiko

2013-01-01

As the life expectancy of people with intellectual disability (ID) increases, it is becoming necessary to understand factors affecting survival. However, predictors that are typically assessed among healthy people have not been examined. Predictors of all-cause mortality, including blood, urine, anthropometry, and nutritional indices, were…

Animal and human influenzas.

PubMed

Peiris, M; Yen, H-L

2014-08-01

Influenza type A viruses affect humans and other animals and cause significant morbidity, mortality and economic impact. Influenza A viruses are well adapted to cross species barriers and evade host immunity. Viruses that cause no clinical signs in wild aquatic birds may adapt in domestic poultry to become highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses which decimate poultry flocks. Viruses that cause asymptomatic infection in poultry (e.g. the recently emerged A/H7N9 virus) may cause severe zoonotic disease and pose a major pandemic threat. Pandemic influenza arises at unpredictable intervals from animal viruses and, in its global spread, outpaces current technologies for making vaccines against such novel viruses. Confronting the threat of influenza in humans and other animals is an excellent example of a task that requires a One Health approach. Changes in travel, trade in livestock and pets, changes in animal husbandry practices, wet markets and complex marketing chains all contribute to an increased risk of the emergence of novel influenza viruses with the ability to cross species barriers, leading to epizootics or pandemics. Coordinated surveillance at the animal- human interface for pandemic preparedness, risk assessment, risk reduction and prevention at source requires coordinated action among practitioners in human and animal health and the environmental sciences. Implementation of One Health in the field can be challenging because of divergent short-term objectives. Successful implementation requires effort, mutual trust, respect and understanding to ensure that long-term goals are achieved without adverse impacts on agricultural production and food security.

Chronological production of thioacetamide-induced cirrhosis in the rat with no mortality.

PubMed

Norasingha, Arthit; Pradidarcheep, Wisuit; Chayaburakul, Kanokporn

2012-01-01

Cirrhotic animal models are useful in studying complications of chronic liver disease. The authors chronologically investigated the effect of thioacetamide (TAA), administered intraperitoneally and adapted individually to weight changes, focusing on the optimal moment to obtain typical features of cirrhosis. Male Wistar Rats,150-200 g, were intoxicated three times per week with TAA of 200 mg/kg for 4, 8, 12 or 16 weeks (n = 8 per group), respectively and compared with age-matched controls (n = 4 per group). The individual body weight and liver function test were also measured in each group. Liver samples from each group were histologically stained with Sirius red in order to identify the degree of liver fibrosis. Rats intoxicated for 4, 8, 12 or 16 weeks had no mortality and histologically showed hepatitis and advanced fibrosis. At 12 and 16 weeks, all animals showed macronodular cirrhosis with signs of high-grade hepatocellular dysplasia. The weight of the treated groups at different time points was significantly lower than the controls. Routine liver function tests between cirrhotic and control rats showed significantly higher only in alanine transaminase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) at 8 and 12 weeks. However in the cirrhotic rats at 16 weeks, the ALT and AST were much lower than that at 8 and 12 weeks but did not show any difference from the controls. Thioacetamide, adapted to individual weight changes, leads to a model of cirrhosis in the rat at 12 and 16 weeks with zero mortality.

Adaptive memory: the survival-processing memory advantage is not due to negativity or mortality salience.

PubMed

Bell, Raoul; Röer, Jan P; Buchner, Axel

2013-05-01

Recent research has highlighted the adaptive function of memory by showing that imagining being stranded in the grasslands without any survival material and rating words according to their survival value in this situation leads to exceptionally good memory for these words. Studies examining the role of emotions in causing the survival-processing memory advantage have been inconclusive, but some studies have suggested that the effect might be due to negativity or mortality salience. In Experiments 1 and 2, we compared the survival scenario to a control scenario that implied imagining a hopeless situation (floating in outer space with dwindling oxygen supplies) in which only suicide can avoid the agony of choking to death. Although this scenario was perceived as being more negative than the survival scenario, the survival-processing memory advantage persisted. In Experiment 3, thinking about the relevance of words for survival led to better memory for these words than did thinking about the relevance of words for death. This survival advantage was found for concrete, but not for abstract, words. The latter finding is consistent with the assumption that the survival instructions encourage participants to think about many different potential uses of items to aid survival, which may be a particularly efficient form of elaborate encoding. Together, the results suggest that thinking about death is much less effective in promoting recall than is thinking about survival. Therefore, the survival-processing memory advantage cannot be satisfactorily explained by negativity or mortality salience.

Is sprawl associated with a widening urban-suburban mortality gap?

PubMed

Fan, Yingling; Song, Yan

2009-09-01

This paper examines whether sprawl, featured by low development density, segregated land uses, lack of significant centers, and poor street connectivity, contributes to a widening mortality gap between urban and suburban residents. We employ two mortality datasets, including a national cross-sectional dataset examining the impact of metropolitan-level sprawl on urban-suburban mortality gaps and a longitudinal dataset from Portland examining changes in urban-suburban mortality gaps over time. The national and Portland studies provide the only evidence to date that (1) across metropolitan areas, the size of urban-suburban mortality gaps varies by the extent of sprawl: in sprawling metropolitan areas, urban residents have significant excess mortality risks than suburban residents, while in compact metropolitan areas, urbanicity-related excess mortality becomes insignificant; (2) the Portland metropolitan area not only experienced net decreases in mortality rates but also a narrowing urban-suburban mortality gap since its adoption of smart growth regime in the past decade; and (3) the existence of excess mortality among urban residents in US sprawling metropolitan areas, as well as the net mortality decreases and narrowing urban-suburban mortality gap in the Portland metropolitan area, is not attributable to sociodemographic variations. These findings suggest that health threats imposed by sprawl affect urban residents disproportionately compared to suburban residents and that efforts curbing sprawl may mitigate urban-suburban health disparities.

Future warmer seas: increased stress and susceptibility to grazing in seedlings of a marine habitat-forming species.

PubMed

Hernán, Gema; Ortega, María J; Gándara, Alberto M; Castejón, Inés; Terrados, Jorge; Tomas, Fiona

2017-11-01

Increases in seawater temperature are expected to have negative consequences for marine organisms. Beyond individual effects, species-specific differences in thermal tolerance are predicted to modify species interactions and increase the strength of top-down effects, particularly in plant-herbivore interactions. Shifts in trophic interactions will be especially important when affecting habitat-forming species such as seagrasses, as the consequences on their abundance will cascade throughout the food web. Seagrasses are a major component of coastal ecosystems offering important ecosystem services, but are threatened by multiple anthropogenic stressors, including warming. The mechanistic understanding of seagrass responses to warming at multiple scales of organization remains largely unexplored, especially in early-life stages such as seedlings. Yet, these early-life stages are critical for seagrass expansion processes and adaptation to climate change. In this study, we determined the effects of a 3 month experimental exposure to present and predicted mean summer SST of the Mediterranean Sea (25°C, 27°C, and 29°C) on the photophysiology, size, and ecology (i.e., plant-herbivore interactions) of seedlings of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Warming resulted in increased mortality, leaf necrosis, and respiration as well as lower carbohydrate reserves in the seed, the main storage organ in seedlings. Aboveground biomass and root growth were also limited with warming, which could hamper seedling establishment success. Furthermore, warming increased the susceptibility to consumption by grazers, likely due to lower leaf fiber content and thickness. Our results indicate that warming will negatively affect seagrass seedlings through multiple direct and indirect pathways: increased stress, reduced establishment potential, lower storage of carbohydrate reserves, and increased susceptibly to consumption. This work provides a significant step forward in understanding the major mechanisms that will drive the capacity of seagrass seedlings to adapt and survive to warming, highlighting the potential additive effects that herbivory will have on ultimately determining seedling success. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Efficacy outcome selection in the therapeutic hypothermia after pediatric cardiac arrest trials.

PubMed

Holubkov, Richard; Clark, Amy E; Moler, Frank W; Slomine, Beth S; Christensen, James R; Silverstein, Faye S; Meert, Kathleen L; Pollack, Murray M; Dean, J Michael

2015-01-01

The Therapeutic Hypothermia After Pediatric Cardiac Arrest trials will determine whether therapeutic hypothermia improves survival with good neurobehavioral outcome, as assessed by the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales Second Edition, in children resuscitated after cardiac arrest in the in-hospital and out-of-hospital settings. We describe the innovative efficacy outcome selection process during Therapeutic Hypothermia After Pediatric Cardiac Arrest protocol development. Consensus assessment of potential outcomes and evaluation timepoints. None. We evaluated practical and technical advantages of several follow-up timepoints and continuous/categorical outcome variants. Simulations estimated power assuming varying hypothermia benefit on mortality and on neurobehavioral function among survivors. Twelve months after arrest was selected as the optimal assessment timepoint for pragmatic and clinical reasons. Change in Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales Second Edition from prearrest level, measured as quasicontinuous with death and vegetative status being worst-possible levels, yielded optimal statistical power. However, clinicians preferred simpler multicategorical or binary outcomes because of easier interpretability and favored outcomes based solely on postarrest status because of concerns about accurate parental assessment of prearrest status and differing clinical impact of a given Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales Second Edition change depending on prearrest status. Simulations found only modest power loss from categorizing or dichotomizing quasicontinuous outcomes because of high expected mortality. The primary outcome selected was survival with 12-month Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales Second Edition no less than two SD below a reference population mean (70 points), necessarily evaluated only among children with prearrest Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales Second Edition greater than or equal to 70. Two secondary efficacy outcomes, 12-month survival and quasicontinuous Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales Second Edition change from prearrest level, will be evaluated among all randomized children, including those with compromised function prearrest. Extensive discussion of optimal efficacy assessment timing, and of the advantages versus drawbacks of incorporating prearrest status and using quasicontinuous versus simpler outcomes, was highly beneficial to the final Therapeutic Hypothermia After Pediatric Cardiac Arrest design. A relatively simple, binary primary outcome evaluated at 12 months was selected, with two secondary outcomes that address the potential disadvantages of primary outcome.

Legacy Chlordane in Soils from Housing Areas Treated with Organochlorine Pesticides

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

indicated that chlordane did not adversely affect seed germination, root length, or shoot length. The plants did uptake chlordane from the soil and...translocate it to the shoots. The presence of chlordane did not affect earthworm mortality, but did affect weight loss and reproductive success...exposure, or inhalation of vapors. Chlordane primarily affects the nervous and digestive systems causing headaches, irritability, confusion and vision

A Prospective Study of Social Isolation, Loneliness, and Mortality in Finland.

PubMed

Tanskanen, Jussi; Anttila, Timo

2016-11-01

To estimate the simultaneous effects of social isolation and loneliness on mortality. We analyzed a representative Finnish sample (n = 8650) from the cross-sectional Living Conditions Survey of 1994, with a 17-year follow-up period (1995-2011), by using Cox regression models adjusted for several possible confounding variables. We examined the possible nonlinear threshold effect of social isolation on mortality. The analyses revealed that social isolation predicted mortality even after we controlled for loneliness and control variables. The connection between social isolation and mortality was linear in nature and there was no synergistic effect between social isolation and loneliness. The effect of loneliness became nonsignificant when studied simultaneously with social isolation. This study reveals strong evidence for an adverse effect of social isolation on mortality. Social isolation and loneliness seem to have distinct pathways to mortality and health. The results imply that the risk of mortality exists along a continuum, affecting not only those who experience extreme social isolation, but also those who suffer from mild to progressively increasing intensity of isolation.

Trade-offs in experimental designs for estimating post-release mortality in containment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogers, Mark W.; Barbour, Andrew B; Wilson, Kyle L

2014-01-01

Estimates of post-release mortality (PRM) facilitate accounting for unintended deaths from fishery activities and contribute to development of fishery regulations and harvest quotas. The most popular method for estimating PRM employs containers for comparing control and treatment fish, yet guidance for experimental design of PRM studies with containers is lacking. We used simulations to evaluate trade-offs in the number of containers (replicates) employed versus the number of fish-per container when estimating tagging mortality. We also investigated effects of control fish survival and how among container variation in survival affects the ability to detect additive mortality. Simulations revealed that high experimental effort was required when: (1) additive treatment mortality was small, (2) control fish mortality was non-negligible, and (3) among container variability in control fish mortality exceeded 10% of the mean. We provided programming code to allow investigators to compare alternative designs for their individual scenarios and expose trade-offs among experimental design options. Results from our simulations and simulation code will help investigators develop efficient PRM experimental designs for precise mortality assessment.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality in a cohort of elderly Egyptian patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Elsebaey, Mohamed A; Elashry, Heba; Elbedewy, Tamer A; Elhadidy, Ahmed A; Esheba, Noha E; Ezat, Sherif; Negm, Manal Saad; Abo-Amer, Yousry Esam-Eldin; Abgeegy, Mohamed El; Elsergany, Heba Fadl; Mansour, Loai; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief

2018-04-01

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) affects large number of elderly with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Early identification and management of the factors predicting in-hospital mortality might decrease mortality. This study was conducted to identify the causes of acute UGIB and the predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly Egyptian patients.286 elderly patients with acute UGIB were divided into: bleeding variceal group (161 patients) and bleeding nonvariceal group (125 patients). Patients' monitoring was done during hospitalization to identify the risk factors that might predict in-hospital mortality in elderly.Variceal bleeding was the most common cause of acute UGIB in elderly Egyptian patients. In-hospital mortality rate was 8.74%. Increasing age, hemodynamic instability at presentation, co-morbidities (especially liver cirrhosis associated with other co-morbidity) and failure to control bleeding were the predictors of in-hospital mortality.Increasing age, hemodynamic instability at presentation, co-morbidities (especially liver cirrhosis associated with other co-morbidity) and failure to control bleeding should be considered when triaging those patients for immediate resuscitation, close observation, and early treatment.

Racial differences in leading causes of infant death in the United States.

PubMed

Muhuri, Pradip K; MacDorman, Marian F; Ezzati-Rice, Trena M

2004-01-01

We used linked birth/infant death records of over 23 million singletons belonging to six birth cohorts (1989-91 and 1995-97) and examined changes in race differentials in the overall and cause-specific infant mortality risks across time in the United States. Results show that infant mortality declined for all races during the time period, with disproportionately greater declines among non-Hispanic American Indians (AIs). Among the leading causes of infant death, declines in mortality from sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) and congenital anomalies contributed the most to the overall decline in infant mortality in the 1995-97 cohorts, compared with the 1989-91 cohorts. Disproportionately greater reductions in mortality resulting from SIDS and congenital anomalies led to more rapid mortality declines among non-Hispanic AIs than for other races. There are disturbing findings that infants of almost every race experienced increases in mortality from newborn affected by maternal complications of pregnancy (maternal complications) and that none of the race groups experienced a significant decline in mortality from disorders resulting from short gestation/low birthweight.

Effect of eccentricity and light level on the timing of light adaptation mechanisms.

PubMed

Barrionuevo, Pablo A; Matesanz, Beatriz M; Gloriani, Alejandro H; Arranz, Isabel; Issolio, Luis; Mar, Santiago; Aparicio, Juan A

2018-04-01

We explored the complexity of the light adaptation process, assessing adaptation recovery (Ar) at different eccentricities and light levels. Luminance thresholds were obtained with transient background fields at mesopic and photopic light levels for temporal retinal eccentricities (0°-15°) with test/background stimulus size of 0.5°/1° using a staircase procedure in a two-channel Maxwellian view optical system. Ar was obtained in comparison with steady data [Vis. Res.125, 12 (2016)VISRAM0042-698910.1016/j.visres.2016.04.008]. Light level proportionally affects Ar only at fovea. Photopic extrafoveal thresholds were one log unit higher for transient conditions. Adaptation was equally fast at low light levels for different retinal locations with variations mainly affected by noise. These results evidence different timing in the mechanisms of adaptation involved.

Is compromised oral health associated with a greater risk of mortality among nursing home residents? A controlled clinical study.

PubMed

Klotz, Anna-Luisa; Hassel, Alexander Jochen; Schröder, Johannes; Rammelsberg, Peter; Zenthöfer, Andreas

2017-08-30

The objective of this controlled clinical study was to evaluate the association between oral health and 1-year mortality among nursing home residents with or without oral health intervention. This research was part of a multidisciplinary intervention study (EVI-P) performed in 14 nursing homes in Germany. Two-hundred and nineteen nursing home residents were included in the study and assigned to an intervention group, for which dental health education was offered and ultrasonic baths were used for denture cleaning (n = 144), or to a control group (n = 75). Before the intervention, each participant was examined, and dental status, plaque control record (PCR), Denture Hygiene Index, and results from the Revised Oral Assessment Guide were recorded. Amount of care needed and dementia were also assessed, by use of the Barthel Index and the Mini Mental State Examination, respectively. Participant mortality was determined after 12 months, and bivariate analysis and logistic regression models were used to evaluate possible factors affecting mortality. Bivariate analysis detected a direct association between greater mortality and being in the control group (p = .038). Participants with higher PCR were also more likely to die during the study period (p = .049). For dentate participants, the protective effect of being in the intervention group was confirmed by multivariate analysis in which covariates such as age and gender were considered. Oral hygiene and oral health seem to affect the risk of mortality of nursing home residents. Dental intervention programs seem to reduce the risk of 1-year mortality among nursing home residents having remaining natural teeth. Further studies, with larger sample sizes and evaluation of the causes of death, are necessary to investigate the reasons for these associations.