Long-term mortality among older adults with burn injury: a population-based study in Australia

PubMed Central

Boyd, James H; Rea, Suzanne; Randall, Sean M; Wood, Fiona M

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess if burn injury in older adults is associated with changes in long-term all-cause mortality and to estimate the increased risk of death attributable to burn injury. Methods We conducted a population-based matched longitudinal study – based on administrative data from Western Australia’s hospital morbidity data system and death register. A cohort of 6014 individuals who were aged at least 45 years when hospitalized for a first burn injury in 1980–2012 was identified. A non-injury comparison cohort, randomly selected from Western Australia’s electoral roll (n = 25 759), was matched to the patients. We used Kaplan–Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards regression to analyse the data and generated mortality rate ratios and attributable risk percentages. Findings For those hospitalized with burns, 180 (3%) died in hospital and 2498 (42%) died after discharge. Individuals with burn injury had a 1.4-fold greater mortality rate than those with no injury (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.3–1.5). In this cohort, the long-term mortality attributable to burn injury was 29%. Mortality risk was increased by both severe and minor burns, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1–1.9) and 2.1 (95% CI: 1.9–2.3), respectively. Conclusion Burn injury is associated with increased long-term mortality. In our study population, sole reliance on data on in-hospital deaths would lead to an underestimate of the true mortality burden associated with burn injury. PMID:26240461

Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.; Byrne, J.C.; Daniels, L.D.; Franklin, J.F.; Fule, P.Z.; Harmon, M.E.; Larson, A.J.; Smith, Joseph M.; Taylor, A.H.; Veblen, T.T.

2009-01-01

Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. Our analyses of longitudinal data from unmanaged old forests in the western United States showed that background (noncatastrophic) mortality rates have increased rapidly in recent decades, with doubling periods ranging from 17 to 29 years among regions. Increases were also pervasive across elevations, tree sizes, dominant genera, and past fire histories. Forest density and basal area declined slightly, which suggests that increasing mortality was not caused by endogenous increases in competition. Because mortality increased in small trees, the overall increase in mortality rates cannot be attributed solely to aging of large trees. Regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits are likely contributors to the increases in tree mortality rates.

Trends, causes, and risk factors of mortality among children under 5 in Ethiopia, 1990-2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

PubMed

Deribew, Amare; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Deribe, Kebede; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Lakew, Yihunie; Amare, Azmeraw T; Abera, Semaw F; Mohammed, Mesoud; Hiruye, Abiy; Teklay, Efrem; Misganaw, Awoke; Kassebaum, Nicholas

2016-01-01

Ethiopia has made remarkable progress in reducing child mortality over the last two decades. However, the under-5 mortality rate in Ethiopia is still higher than the under-5 mortality rates of several low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). On the other hand, the patterns and causes of child mortality have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate the mortality trend, causes of death, and risk factors among children under 5 in Ethiopia during 1990-2013. We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 data. Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) was applied to generate best estimates of child mortality with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were measured using Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm). For estimation of HIV/AIDS mortality rate, the modified UNAIDS EPP-SPECTRUM suite model was used. Between 1990 and 2013 the under-5 mortality rate declined from 203.9 deaths/1000 live births to 74.4 deaths/1000 live births with an annual rate of change of 4.6%, yielding a total reduction of 64%. Similarly, child (1-4 years), post-neonatal, and neonatal mortality rates declined by 75%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, between 1990 and 2013. Lower respiratory tract infection (LRI), diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes (preterm birth complications, neonatal encephalopathy, neonatal sepsis, and other neonatal disorders) accounted for 54% of the total under-5 deaths in 2013. Under-5 mortality rates due to measles, diarrhea, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, and iron-deficiency anemia declined by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 2013. Among the causes of under-5 deaths, neonatal syndromes such as sepsis, preterm birth complications, and birth asphyxia ranked third to fifth in 2013. Of all risk-attributable deaths in 1990, 25% of the total under-5 deaths (112,288/435,962) and 48% (112,288/232,199) of the deaths due to diarrhea, LRI, and other common infections were attributable to childhood wasting. Similarly, 19% (43,759/229,333) of the total under-5 deaths and 45% (43,759/97,963) of the deaths due to diarrhea and LRI were attributable to wasting in 2013. Of the total diarrheal disease- and LRI-related deaths ( n  = 97,963) in 2013, 59% (57,923/97,963) of them were attributable to unsafe water supply, unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, and no handwashing with soap. LRI, diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes remain the major causes of under-5 deaths in Ethiopia. These findings call for better-integrated newborn and child survival interventions focusing on the main risk factors.

Lamb and kid mortality in village flocks in the coastal savanna zone of Ghana.

PubMed

Turkson, P K

2003-12-01

A cohort study was designed to observe and follow up mortality in lambs and kids in 88 flocks of sheep and goats under the traditional production system in five villages within the coastal savanna zone of Ghana over a 2-year period. The overall mortality rates for kids and lambs were 30.8% and 33.5%, respectively. Significantly higher proportions of kids (80.2%) and lambs (75.6%) up to 3 months of age died compared to kids and lambs from 4 to 12 months of age. The differences in mortality rates, either between male and female kids and lambs or between single-born and multiple-birth kids and lambs, were not significant. The odds ratio (OR) and relative risks (RR) for lambs and kids, on the basis of sex and birth types, were not significant; neither were the values obtained for attributable risk, attributable fraction, population attributable risk and population attributable fraction. The overall mortality rate on the basis of species of animal was not significant. At the village level, significant differences in the proportions of mortality on the basis of sex were seen in two villages. At Akotokyir, more male lambs (54.2%) died compared to females (27.6%), while at Apewosika more female lambs (42.2%) died compared to males (16.7%). The only significant difference in mortality proportions on the basis of birth type at the village level was seen at Apewosika, where more single-born kids died (52.8%) compared to kids born with sibling(s) (28.4%). The significant ORs for mortalities were 3.10 for male lambs at Akotokyir, 3.35 for female lambs at Apewosika and 2.82 for single-born kids at Apewosika. The corresponding RRs were equally significant. On the basis of species, significantly more lambs died at Akotokyir (44.2%) and Kwesimprah (44.7%) compared to kids. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Study of Hydatidosis-Attributed Mortality in Endemic Area

PubMed Central

Belhassen-García, Moncef; Romero-Alegria, Angela; Velasco-Tirado, Virginia; Alonso-Sardón, Montserrat; Lopez-Bernus, Amparo; Alvela-Suarez, Lucia; del Villar, Luis Perez; Carpio-Perez, Adela; Galindo-Perez, Inmaculada; Cordero-Sanchez, Miguel; Pardo-Lledias, Javier

2014-01-01

Background Cystic hydatid disease is still an important health problem in European Mediterranean areas. In spite of being traditionally considered as a “benign” pathology, cystic echinococcosis is an important cause of morbidity in these areas. Nevertheless, there are few analyses of mortality attributed to human hydatidosis. Objective To describe the epidemiology, the mortality rate and the causes of mortality due to E. granulosus infection in an endemic area. Methodology A retrospective study followed up over a period of 14 years (1998–2011). Principal Findings Of the 567 patients diagnosed with hydatid disease over the period 1998–2011, eleven deaths directly related to hydatid disease complications were recorded. Ten patients (90.9%) died due to infectious complications and the remaining one (9.1%) died due to mechanical complications after a massive hemoptysis. We registered a case fatality rate of 1.94% and a mortality rate of 3.1 per 100.000 inhabitants. Conclusions Hydatidosis is still a frequent parasitic disease that causes a considerable mortality. The main causes of mortality in patients with hydatidosis are complications related to the rupture of CE cysts with supurative collangitis. Therefore, an expectant management can be dangerous and it must be only employed in well-selected patients. PMID:24632824

Malaria's indirect contribution to all-cause mortality in the Andaman Islands during the colonial era.

PubMed

Shanks, G Dennis; Hay, Simon I; Bradley, David J

2008-09-01

Malaria has a substantial secondary effect on other causes of mortality. From the 19th century, malaria epidemics in the Andaman Islands' penal colony were initiated by the brackish swamp-breeding malaria vector Anopheles sundaicus and fuelled by the importation of new prisoners. Malaria was a major determinant of the highly variable all-cause mortality rate (correlation coefficient r(2)=0.60, n=68, p<0.0001) from 1872 to 1939. Directly attributed malaria mortality based on post-mortem examinations rarely exceeded one-fifth of total mortality. Infectious diseases such as pneumonia, tuberculosis, dysentery, and diarrhoea, which combined with malaria made up the majority of all-cause mortality, were positively correlated with malaria incidence over several decades. Deaths secondary to malaria (indirect malaria mortality) were at least as great as mortality directly attributed to malaria infections.

Quantifying the hospitalised morbidity and mortality attributable to traumatic injury using a population-based matched cohort in Australia

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Rebecca J; Cameron, Cate M; McClure, Rod

2016-01-01

Objectives To quantify the 12-month hospitalised morbidity and mortality attributable to traumatic injury using a population-based matched cohort in Australia. Setting New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia, Australia. Participants Individuals ≥18 years who had an injury-related hospital admission in 2009 formed the injured cohort. The non-injured comparison cohort was randomly selected from the electoral roll and was matched 1:1 on age, gender and postcode of residence at the date of the index injury admission of their matched counterpart. Primary outcome measures Using linked emergency department presentation, hospital admission and mortality records from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 for both the injured and non-injured cohorts, 12-month mortality and pre-index and post-index injury hospital service use was examined. Adjusted rate ratios and attributable risk were calculated. Results There were 167 600 individuals injured in 2009 and admitted to hospital in New South Wales, South Australia or Queensland with a matched comparison. The injured cohort had 3 times higher proportion of having ≥1 comorbidity preinjury, higher preinjury hospital service use, and a higher 12-month mortality compared with a non-injured comparison group. The injured cohort had 2.20 (95% CI 2.12 to 2.28) times higher rate of hospital admissions in the 12 months post the index injury admission compared with the non-injured comparison cohort. Injury was a likely contributory factor in at least 55% of hospitalisations within 12 months of the index injury hospitalisation. Conclusions Individuals who had an injury-related hospitalisation had higher mortality and are hospitalised at increased rates for many months postinjury. While comorbid conditions are significant, they do not account for the differences in outcomes. This study contributes to informing research efforts on better quantifying the attributable burden of hospitalised injury-related disability and mortality in Australia. PMID:27927664

Contribution of Early Detection and Adjuvant Treatments to Breast Cancer Mortality Reduction in Catalonia, Spain

PubMed Central

Vilaprinyo, Ester; Puig, Teresa; Rue, Montserrat

2012-01-01

Background Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia. Methodology/Principal Findings A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975–2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30–69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%. Conclusions/Significance Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods. PMID:22272292

Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation: Findings from a National Cluster Sample Survey by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study

PubMed Central

Hagopian, Amy; Flaxman, Abraham D.; Takaro, Tim K.; Esa Al Shatari, Sahar A.; Rajaratnam, Julie; Becker, Stan; Levin-Rector, Alison; Galway, Lindsay; Hadi Al-Yasseri, Berq J.; Weiss, William M.; Murray, Christopher J.; Burnham, Gilbert

2013-01-01

Background Previous estimates of mortality in Iraq attributable to the 2003 invasion have been heterogeneous and controversial, and none were produced after 2006. The purpose of this research was to estimate direct and indirect deaths attributable to the war in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. Methods and Findings We conducted a survey of 2,000 randomly selected households throughout Iraq, using a two-stage cluster sampling method to ensure the sample of households was nationally representative. We asked every household head about births and deaths since 2001, and all household adults about mortality among their siblings. We used secondary data sources to correct for out-migration. From March 1, 2003, to June 30, 2011, the crude death rate in Iraq was 4.55 per 1,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval 3.74–5.27), more than 0.5 times higher than the death rate during the 26-mo period preceding the war, resulting in approximately 405,000 (95% uncertainty interval 48,000–751,000) excess deaths attributable to the conflict. Among adults, the risk of death rose 0.7 times higher for women and 2.9 times higher for men between the pre-war period (January 1, 2001, to February 28, 2003) and the peak of the war (2005–2006). We estimate that more than 60% of excess deaths were directly attributable to violence, with the rest associated with the collapse of infrastructure and other indirect, but war-related, causes. We used secondary sources to estimate rates of death among emigrants. Those estimates suggest we missed at least 55,000 deaths that would have been reported by households had the households remained behind in Iraq, but which instead had migrated away. Only 24 households refused to participate in the study. An additional five households were not interviewed because of hostile or threatening behavior, for a 98.55% response rate. The reliance on outdated census data and the long recall period required of participants are limitations of our study. Conclusions Beyond expected rates, most mortality increases in Iraq can be attributed to direct violence, but about a third are attributable to indirect causes (such as from failures of health, sanitation, transportation, communication, and other systems). Approximately a half million deaths in Iraq could be attributable to the war. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24143140

Mortality in Iraq associated with the 2003-2011 war and occupation: findings from a national cluster sample survey by the university collaborative Iraq Mortality Study.

PubMed

Hagopian, Amy; Flaxman, Abraham D; Takaro, Tim K; Esa Al Shatari, Sahar A; Rajaratnam, Julie; Becker, Stan; Levin-Rector, Alison; Galway, Lindsay; Hadi Al-Yasseri, Berq J; Weiss, William M; Murray, Christopher J; Burnham, Gilbert

2013-10-01

Previous estimates of mortality in Iraq attributable to the 2003 invasion have been heterogeneous and controversial, and none were produced after 2006. The purpose of this research was to estimate direct and indirect deaths attributable to the war in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. We conducted a survey of 2,000 randomly selected households throughout Iraq, using a two-stage cluster sampling method to ensure the sample of households was nationally representative. We asked every household head about births and deaths since 2001, and all household adults about mortality among their siblings. We used secondary data sources to correct for out-migration. From March 1, 2003, to June 30, 2011, the crude death rate in Iraq was 4.55 per 1,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval 3.74-5.27), more than 0.5 times higher than the death rate during the 26-mo period preceding the war, resulting in approximately 405,000 (95% uncertainty interval 48,000-751,000) excess deaths attributable to the conflict. Among adults, the risk of death rose 0.7 times higher for women and 2.9 times higher for men between the pre-war period (January 1, 2001, to February 28, 2003) and the peak of the war (2005-2006). We estimate that more than 60% of excess deaths were directly attributable to violence, with the rest associated with the collapse of infrastructure and other indirect, but war-related, causes. We used secondary sources to estimate rates of death among emigrants. Those estimates suggest we missed at least 55,000 deaths that would have been reported by households had the households remained behind in Iraq, but which instead had migrated away. Only 24 households refused to participate in the study. An additional five households were not interviewed because of hostile or threatening behavior, for a 98.55% response rate. The reliance on outdated census data and the long recall period required of participants are limitations of our study. Beyond expected rates, most mortality increases in Iraq can be attributed to direct violence, but about a third are attributable to indirect causes (such as from failures of health, sanitation, transportation, communication, and other systems). Approximately a half million deaths in Iraq could be attributable to the war. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Deaths related to Hurricane Andrew in Florida and Louisiana, 1992.

PubMed

Combs, D L; Parrish, R G; McNabb, S J; Davis, J H

1996-06-01

Information about circumstances leading to disaster-related deaths helps emergency response coordinators and other public health officials respond to the needs of disaster victims and develop policies for reducing the mortality and morbidity of future disasters. In this paper, we describe the decedent population, circumstances of death, and population-based mortality rates related to Hurricane Andrew, and propose recommendations for evaluating and reducing the public health impact of natural disasters. To ascertain the number and circumstances of deaths attributed to Hurricane Andrew in Florida and Louisiana, we contacted medical examiners in 11 Florida counties and coroners in 36 Louisiana parishes. In Florida medical examiners attributed 44 deaths to the hurricane. The mortality rate for directly-related deaths was 4.4 per 1 000 000 population and that for indirectly-related deaths was 8.5 per 1 000 000 population. In Louisiana, coroners attributed 11 resident deaths to the hurricane. Mortality rates were 0.6 per 1000 000 population for deaths directly related to the storm and 2.8 for deaths indirectly related to the storm. Six additional deaths occurred among non-residents who drowned in international waters in the Gulf of Mexico. In both Florida and Louisiana, mortality rates generally increased with age and were higher among whites and males. In addition to encouraging people to follow existing recommendations, we recommend emphasizing safe driving practices during evacuation and clean-up, equipping shelters with basic medical needs for the population served, and modifying zoning and housing legislation. We also recommend developing and using a standard definition for disaster-related deaths, and using population-based statistics to describe the public health effectiveness of policies intended to reduce disaster-related mortality.

Impact of vaccination on influenza mortality in children <5years old in Mexico.

PubMed

Sánchez-Ramos, Evelyn L; Monárrez-Espino, Joel; Noyola, Daniel E

2017-03-01

Influenza is a leading cause of respiratory tract infections among children. In Mexico, influenza vaccination was included in the National Immunization Program since 2004. However, the population health effects of the vaccine on children have not been fully described. Thus, we estimated the impact of influenza immunization in terms of mortality associated with this virus among children younger than 5years of age in Mexico. Mortality rates and years of life lost associated with influenza were estimated using national mortality register data for the period 1998-2012. Age-stratified and cause-specific mortality rates were estimated for all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular events. Influenza-associated mortality was compared between the period prior to introduction of the influenza vaccine as part of the National Immunization Program (1998-2004) and the period thereafter (2004-2012). During the 1998-2012 winter seasons, the average number of all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular deaths attributable to influenza were 1186, 794 and 21, respectively. Influenza-associated mortality was higher prior to the vaccination period than after influenza was included in the immunization program for all-cause (mean 1660 vs. 780) and respiratory (mean 1063 vs. 563) mortality, but no reduction was seen for cardiovascular mortality. The proportion of all-cause and respiratory deaths attributable to influenza was significantly lower in the post-vaccine period compared with the pre-vaccine period (P<0.001), but no reduction was seen in the proportion of cardiovascular deaths. There was an average annual reduction of 66,558years of life lost in the post-vaccine compared with the pre-vaccine period. The introduction of influenza vaccination within the Mexican Immunization Program was associated with a reduction in mortality rates attributable to this virus among children younger than 5years of age. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disparities in Smoking-Related Mortality Among American Indians/Alaska Natives.

PubMed

Mowery, Paul D; Dube, Shanta R; Thorne, Stacy L; Garrett, Bridgette E; Homa, David M; Nez Henderson, Patricia

2015-11-01

Smoking-related disparities continue to be a public health problem among American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) population groups and data documenting the health burden of smoking in this population are sparse. The purpose of this study was to assess mortality attributable to cigarette smoking among AI/AN adults relative to non-Hispanic white adults (whites) by calculating and comparing smoking-attributable fractions and mortality. Smoking-attributable fractions and mortality among AI/ANs (n=1.63 million AI/ANs) and whites were calculated for people living in 637 Indian Health Service Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties in the U.S., from mortality data collected during 2001-2009. Differences in smoking-attributable mortality between AI/ANs and whites for five major causes of smoking-related deaths were examined. All data analyses were carried out in 2013-2014. Overall, from 2001 to 2009, age-adjusted death rates, smoking-attributable fractions, and smoking-attributable mortality for all-cause mortality were higher among AI/ANs than among whites for adult men and women aged ≥35 years. Smoking caused 21% of ischemic heart disease, 15% of other heart disease, and 17% of stroke deaths in AI/AN men, compared with 15%, 10%, and 9%, respectively, for white men. Among AI/AN women, smoking caused 18% of ischemic heart disease deaths, 13% of other heart diseases deaths, and 20% of stroke deaths, compared with 9%, 7%, and 10%, respectively, among white women. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive tobacco control and prevention efforts that can effectively reach and impact the AI/AN population to prevent and reduce smoking. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Malaria’s Indirect Contribution to All-Cause Mortality in the Andaman Islands during the Colonial Era

PubMed Central

Shanks, G. Dennis; Hay, Simon I.; Bradley, David J.

2009-01-01

Malaria appears to have a substantial secondary effect on other causes of mortality. From the 19th century, malaria epidemics in the Andaman Islands Penal Colony were initiated by the brackish swamp breeding malaria vector Anopheles sundaicus and fueled by the importation of new prisoners. Malaria was a major determinant of the highly variable all-cause mortality rate (correlation coefficient r2=0.60, n=68, p< 0.0001) from 1872 to 1939. Directly attributed malaria mortality based on postmortem examinations rarely exceeded one fifth of total mortality. Infectious diseases such as pneumonia, tuberculosis, dysentery and diarrhea, which combined with malaria made up a majority of all-cause mortality, were positively correlated to malaria incidence over several decades. Deaths secondary to malaria (indirect malaria mortality) were at least as great as mortality directly attributed to malaria infections. PMID:18599354

Elevated Influenza-Related Excess Mortality in South African Elderly Individuals, 1998–2005

PubMed Central

Cohen, Cheryl; Simonsen, Lone; Kang, Jong-Won; Miller, Mark; McAnerney, Jo; Blumberg, Lucille; Schoub, Barry; Madhi, Shabir A.; Viboud, Cécile

2010-01-01

Background. Although essential to guide control measures, published estimates of influenza-related seasonal mortality for low- and middle-income countries are few. We aimed to compare influenza-related mortality among individuals aged ⩾65 years in South Africa and the United States. Methods. We estimated influenza-related excess mortality due to all causes, pneumonia and influenza, and other influenza-associated diagnoses from monthly age-specific mortality data for 1998–2005 using a Serfling regression model. We controlled for between-country differences in population age structure and nondemographic factors (baseline mortality and coding practices) by generating age-standardized estimates and by estimating the percentage excess mortality attributable to influenza. Results. Age-standardized excess mortality rates were higher in South Africa than in the United States: 545 versus 133 deaths per 100,000 population for all causes (P < .001) and 63 vs 21 deaths per 100,000 population for pneumonia and influenza (P=.03). Standardization for nondemographic factors decreased but did not eliminate between-country differences; for example, the mean percentage of winter deaths attributable to influenza was 16% in South Africa and 6% in the United States (P < .001). For all respiratory causes, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes, age-standardized excess death rates were 4—8-fold greater in South Africa than in the United States, and the percentage increase in winter deaths attributable to influenza was 2—4-fold higher. Conclusions. These data suggest that the impact of seasonal influenza on mortality among elderly individuals may be substantially higher in an African setting, compared with in the United States, and highlight the potential for influenza vaccination programs to decrease mortality. PMID:21070141

Mortality and Burden of Disease Attributable to Cigarette Smoking in Qingdao, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yani; Qi, Fei; Jia, Xiaorong; Lin, Peng; Liu, Hui; Geng, Meiyun; Liu, Yunning; Li, Shanpeng; Tan, Jibin

2016-09-09

In China, smoking is the leading preventable cause of deaths by a disease. Estimating the disease burden attributable to smoking contributes to an evaluation of the adverse impact of smoking. To aid in policy change and implementation, this study estimated the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of smoking, the all-cause mortality and the loss of life expectancy attributable to smoking in 2014 of Qingdao. PAFs were calculated using the smoking impact ratio (SIR) or current smoking rate (P) and relative risk (RR). We determined the smoking-attributable mortality by multiplying the smoking-attributable fraction by the total mortality. This study used the method of an abridged life table to calculate the loss of life expectancy caused by smoking. Smoking caused about 8635 deaths (6883 males, 1752 females), and accounted for 16% of all deaths; 22% in males and 8% in females. The leading causes of deaths attributable to smoking were lung cancer (38%), ischemic heart disease (19%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, 12%). The PAF for all causes was 22%; 30% in males and 10% in females. Tobacco use may cause a reduction of about 2.01 years of the loss of life expectancy; 3 years in males and 0.87 years in females. The findings highlight the need for taking effective measures to prevent initiation and induce cessation.

Mortality and Burden of Disease Attributable to Cigarette Smoking in Qingdao, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yani; Qi, Fei; Jia, Xiaorong; Lin, Peng; Liu, Hui; Geng, Meiyun; Liu, Yunning; Li, Shanpeng; Tan, Jibin

2016-01-01

In China, smoking is the leading preventable cause of deaths by a disease. Estimating the disease burden attributable to smoking contributes to an evaluation of the adverse impact of smoking. To aid in policy change and implementation, this study estimated the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of smoking, the all-cause mortality and the loss of life expectancy attributable to smoking in 2014 of Qingdao. PAFs were calculated using the smoking impact ratio (SIR) or current smoking rate (P) and relative risk (RR). We determined the smoking-attributable mortality by multiplying the smoking-attributable fraction by the total mortality. This study used the method of an abridged life table to calculate the loss of life expectancy caused by smoking. Smoking caused about 8635 deaths (6883 males, 1752 females), and accounted for 16% of all deaths; 22% in males and 8% in females. The leading causes of deaths attributable to smoking were lung cancer (38%), ischemic heart disease (19%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, 12%). The PAF for all causes was 22%; 30% in males and 10% in females. Tobacco use may cause a reduction of about 2.01 years of the loss of life expectancy; 3 years in males and 0.87 years in females. The findings highlight the need for taking effective measures to prevent initiation and induce cessation. PMID:27618084

Changing mortality patterns in East and West Germany and Poland. II: Short-term trends during transition and in the 1990s

PubMed Central

Nolte, E.; Shkolnikov, V.; McKee, M.

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES—To examine trends in life expectancy at birth and age and cause specific patterns of mortality in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Poland during political transition and throughout the 1990s in both parts of Germany and in Poland.
METHODS—Decomposition of life expectancy by age and cause of death. Changes in life expectancy during transition by cause of death were examined using data for 1988/89 and 1990/91 for the former GDR and Poland; examination of life expectancy changes after transition were based on 1992-97 data for Germany and 1991-96 data for Poland.
RESULTS—In both the former GDR and Poland male life expectancy at birth declined by almost one year during transition, mainly attributable to rising death rates from external causes and circulatory diseases. Female life expectancy in Poland deteriorated by 0.3 years, largely attributable to increasing circulatory mortality among the old, while in East German female rising death rates in children and young adults were nearly outbalanced by declining circulatory mortality among those over 70. Between 1991/92 and 1996/97, male life expectancy at birth increased by 2.4 years in the former GDR, 1.2 years in old Federal Republic, and 2.0 years in Poland (women: 2.3, 0.9, and 1.2 years). In East Germany and Poland, the overall improvement was largely attributable to falling mortality among men aged 40-64, while those over 65 contributed the largest proportion to life expectancy gains in women. The change in deaths among men aged 15-39 accounted for 0.4 of a year to life expectancy at birth in East Germany and Poland, attributable largely to greater decreases from external causes. Among those over 40, absolute contributions to changing life expectancy were greater in the former GDR than in the other two entities in both sexes, largely attributable to circulatory diseases. A persisting East-west life expectancy gap in Germany of 2.1 years in men in 1997 was largely attributable to external causes, diseases of the digestive system and circulatory diseases. Higher death rates from circulatory diseases among the elderly largely explain the female life expectancy gap of approximately one year.
CONCLUSIONS—This study provides further insights into the health effects of political transition. Post-transition improvements in life expectancy and mortality have been much steeper in East Germany compared with Poland. Changes in dietary pattern and, in Germany, medical care may have been important factors in shaping post-transition mortality trends. 


Keywords: mortality trends; Germany; Poland; transition PMID:11076985

[Burden of disease attributable to high- sodium diets in China, 2013].

PubMed

Liu, M; Li, Y C; Liu, S W; Wang, L J; Liu, Y N; Yin, P; Liu, J M; You, J L; Zhou, M G

2016-09-06

Objective: To examine the burden of disease(BOD)attributable to high-sodium diets in China in 2013. Methods: Data were extracted from the 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study for China to examine the BOD attributable to high-sodium diets in 2013, gender, and disease composition. Measurements for attributable BOD were population attributable fraction(PAF), deaths, standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)(not including Taiwan, China). An average world population age-structure for the period 2000-2025 was adopted to calculate age-standardized rates. Results: In 2013, deaths attributable to high-sodium diets accounted for 12.6% of all deaths and 14.5% of chronic disease deaths. Overall, 7.8% of deaths because of neoplasms, 25.2% of cardiovascular disease deaths, and 22.9% of chronic kidney disease deaths were attributable to high-sodium diets. A total of 1 176 553 deaths were attributable to high-sodium diets and the standardized mortality was 91.5/100 000, which was higher in men than in women(121.7/100 000 and 63.0/100 000, respectively). Overall, 22.759 million DALYs were attributable to high-sodium diets. The DALY standardized rate was 1 588.0/100 000, which was higher in men than in women(2 189.7/100 000 and 993.2/100 000, respectively). When compared by province, PAF in Xinjiang(25.0%), Qinghai(23.7%), Shanxi(23.2%), Tibet(22.1%)and Shandong(20.5%)was higher than other provinces. The standardized mortality in Xinjiang(239.4/100 000), Qinghai(238.9/100 000), Tibet(221.7/100 000), Shanxi(166.2/100 000)and Hebei(149.9/100 000)were higher than other provinces. The DALY standardized rate attributable to high-sodium diets was highest in Xinjiang(4 430.8/100 000), Qinghai(4 422.5/100 000), Tibet(4 021.4/100 000), Shanxi(2 816.6/100 000), and Hebei(2 624.9/100 000). Conclusion: The BOD attributable to high-sodium diets is a serious issue in China, particularly in men and in the northern provinces. Effective measures should be taken in northern provinces to reduce sodium intake.

76 FR 71459 - Prohexadione Calcium; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-18

... available. In one study, maternal toxicity manifested as increased mortality, abortions, and decreases in... the dose that caused maternal toxicity. The abortions were attributed to the maternal toxicity (i.e.../Residential). absorption rate 25%. Residential. 200 mg/kg/day based on increased mortality, abortions, and...

Trend in infant mortality rate in Argentina within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Juliana Z; Duhau, Mariana; Speranza, Ana

2016-06-01

Infant mortality rate (IMR) is an indicator of the health status of a population and of the quality of and access to health care services. In 2000, and within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals, Argentina committed to achieve by 2015 a reduction by two thirds of its 1990 infant mortality rate, and to identify and close inter-jurisdictional gaps. The objective of this article is to describe the trend in infant mortality rate in Argentina and interjurisdictional gaps, infant mortality magnitude and causes, in compliance with the Millennium Development Goals. A descriptive study on infant mortality was conducted in Argentina in 1990 and between 2000 and 2013, based on vital statistics data published by the Health Statistics and Information Department of the Ministry of Health of Argentina. The following reductions were confirmed: 57.8% in IMR, 52.6% in neonatal mortality rate and 63.8% in post-neonatal mortality rate. The inter-provincial Gini coefficient for IMR decreased by 27%. The population attributable risk decreased by 16.6% for IMR, 38.8% for neonatal mortality rate and 51.5% for post-neonatal mortality rate in 2013 versus 1990. A significant reduction in infant mortality and its components has been shown, but not enough to meet the Millennium Development Goals. The reduction in IMR gaps reached the set goal; however, inequalities still persist. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

America's Infant-Mortality Puzzle.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eberstadt, Nicholas

1991-01-01

Conventional explanations attributing the high infant mortality rate in United States to the prevalence of poverty and lack of adequate health care do not tell the whole story. Contributions of parental behavior, lifestyles, and public health care availability versus utilization must be examined in determining public policies to address the…

Mortality of breast cancer in Taiwan, 1971-2010: temporal changes and an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Ho, M-L; Hsiao, Y-H; Su, S-Y; Chou, M-C; Liaw, Y-P

2015-01-01

The current paper describes the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality in Taiwan. Female breast cancer mortality data were collected from the Taiwan death registries for 1971-2010. The annual percentage changes, age- standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and age-period-cohort model were calculated. The mortality rates increased with advancing age groups when fixing the period. The percentage change in the breast cancer mortality rate increased from 54.79% at aged 20-44 years, to 149.78% in those aged 45-64 years (between 1971-75 and 2006-10). The mortality rates in the 45-64 age group increased steadily from 1971 to 1975 and 2006-10. The 1951 birth cohorts (actual birth cohort; 1947-55) showed peak mortalities in both the 50-54 and 45-49 age groups. We found that the 1951 birth cohorts had the greatest mortality risk from breast cancer. This might be attributed to the DDT that was used in large amounts to prevent deaths from malaria in Taiwan. However, future researches require DDT data to evaluate the association between breast cancer and DDT use.

Stroke mortality in Tennessee: an eco-epidemiologic perspective.

PubMed

Flowers, Joanne; Vutla, Balaji; Aldrich, Tim E

2008-04-01

Prevention of stroke mortality in Tennessee is a statewide public health priority. These analyses describe how the distribution of Caucasian stroke mortality is greater among the state's Appalachian Counties. For African-American residents, the elevated stroke mortality risk is not distinctive for geographic regions, although Upper East Tennessee rates are elevated. If the Caucasian criteria for assigning "high" rates were used with African-American stroke mortality data, the entire state would be designated as having elevated levels for stroke mortality. Race-gender specific analyses at the county-level (ecological attributes) illustrate the greater risks for "high" county-level stroke mortality rates are present for urban and poor communities in our state. African-American males are a clear exception, where the poorer, rural communities show a protective effect for "high" county-level stroke mortality rates. We support implementing stroke prevention programming and public health interventions based on the mortality data distributions; compatible statewide initiatives are underway We recommend strategic over-sampling of the state's priority populations for stroke risk to facilitate the monitoring of prevention and intervention program impacts over time.

Causes and rates of mortality of swift foxes in western Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sovada, M.A.; Roy, C.C.; Bright, J.B.; Gillis, J.R.

1998-01-01

Knowledge of mortality factors is important for developing strategies to conserve the swift fox (Vulpes velox), a species being considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act, but available information about swift fox mortality is inadequate. We used radiotelemetry techniques to examine the magnitude and causes of mortality of swift fox populations in 2 study areas in western Kansas. One study area was predominantly cropland, the other rangeland. Mortality rates, calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimation techniques in a staggered entry design, were 0.55 ?? 0.08 (5 ?? SE) for adult and 0.67 ?? 0.08 for juvenile swift foxes. We did not detect differences between study areas in mortality rates for adults or juveniles. Predation by coyotes (Canis latrans) was the major cause of mortality for adult and juvenile swift foxes in both study areas, and vehicle collision was an important mortality factor for juveniles in the cropland study area. No mortality was attributed to starvation or disease.

The historical development of suicide mortality in Russia, 1870-2007.

PubMed

Jukkala, Tanya; Mäkinen, Ilkka Henrik; Stickley, Andrew

2015-01-01

Russia has one of the highest suicide mortality rates in the world. This study investigates the development of Russian suicide mortality over a longer time period in order to provide a context within which the contemporary high level might be better understood. Annual sex- and age-specific suicide-mortality data for Russia for the period 1870-2007 were studied, where available. Russian suicide mortality increased 11-fold over the period. Trends in male and female suicide developed similarly, although male suicide rates were consistently much higher. From the 1990s suicide has increased in a relative sense among the young (15-34), while the high suicide mortality among middle-aged males has reduced. Changes in Russian suicide mortality over the study period may be attributable to modernization processes.

Forecasting sex differences in mortality in high income nations: The contribution of smoking

PubMed Central

Pampel, Fred

2011-01-01

To address the question of whether sex differences in mortality will in the future rise, fall, or stay the same, this study uses relative smoking prevalence among males and females to forecast future changes in relative smoking-attributed mortality. Data on 21 high income nations from 1975 to 2000 and a lag between smoking prevalence and mortality allow forecasts up to 2020. Averaged across nations, the results for logged male/female ratios in smoking mortality reveal equalization of the sex differential. However, continued divergence in non-smoking mortality rates would counter convergence in smoking mortality rates and lead to future increases in the female advantage overall, particularly in nations at late stages of the cigarette epidemic (such as the United States and the United Kingdom). PMID:21874120

Substance use disorders, psychiatric disorders, and mortality after release from prison: a nationwide longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Chang, Zheng; Lichtenstein, Paul; Larsson, Henrik; Fazel, Seena

2015-01-01

Summary Background High mortality rates have been reported in people released from prison compared with the general population. However, few studies have investigated potential risk factors associated with these high rates, especially psychiatric determinants. We aimed to investigate the association between psychiatric disorders and mortality in people released from prison in Sweden. Methods We studied all people who were imprisoned since Jan 1, 2000, and released before Dec 31, 2009, in Sweden for risks of all-cause and external-cause (accidents, suicide, homicide) mortality after prison release. We obtained data for substance use disorders and other psychiatric disorders, and criminological and sociodemographic factors from population-based registers. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) by Cox regression, and then used them to calculate population attributable fractions for post-release mortality. To control for potential familial confounding, we compared individuals in the study with siblings who were also released from prison, but without psychiatric disorders. We tested whether any independent risk factors improved the prediction of mortality beyond age, sex, and criminal history. Findings We identified 47 326 individuals who were imprisoned. During a median follow-up time of 5·1 years (IQR 2·6–7·5), we recorded 2874 (6%) deaths after release from prison. The overall all-cause mortality rate was 1205 deaths per 100 000 person-years. Substance use disorders significantly increased the rate of all-cause mortality (alcohol use: adjusted HR 1·62, 95% CI 1·48–1·77; drug use: 1·67, 1·53–1·83), and the association was independent of sociodemographic, criminological, and familial factors. We identified no strong evidence that other psychiatric disorders increased mortality after we controlled for potential confounders. In people released from prison, 925 (34%) of all-cause deaths in men and 85 (50%) in women were potentially attributable to substance use disorders. Substance use disorders were also an independent determinant of external-cause mortality, with population attributable fraction estimates at 42% in men and 70% in women. Substance use disorders significantly improved the prediction of external-cause mortality, in addition to sociodemographic and criminological factors. Interpretation Interventions to address substance use disorders could substantially decrease the burden of excess mortality in people released from prison, but might need to be provided beyond the immediate period after release. Funding Wellcome Trust, Swedish Research Council, and the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare. PMID:26360286

[Excess mortality associated with influenza in Spain in winter 2012].

PubMed

León-Gómez, Inmaculada; Delgado-Sanz, Concepción; Jiménez-Jorge, Silvia; Flores, Víctor; Simón, Fernando; Gómez-Barroso, Diana; Larrauri, Amparo; de Mateo Ontañón, Salvador

2015-01-01

An excess of mortality was detected in Spain in February and March 2012 by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the «European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action» program. The objective of this article was to determine whether this excess could be attributed to influenza in this period. Excess mortality from all causes from 2006 to 2012 were studied using time series in the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system, and Poisson regression in the European mortality surveillance system, as well as the FluMOMO model, which estimates the mortality attributable to influenza. Excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia attributable to influenza were studied by a modification of the Serfling model. To detect the periods of excess, we compared observed and expected mortality. In February and March 2012, both the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the European mortality surveillance system detected a mortality excess of 8,110 and 10,872 deaths (mortality ratio (MR): 1.22 (95% CI:1.21-1.23) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.29-1.31), respectively). In the 2011-12 season, the FluMOMO model identified the maximum percentage (97%) of deaths attributable to influenza in people older than 64 years with respect to the mortality total associated with influenza (13,822 deaths). The rate of excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia and respiratory causes in people older than 64 years, obtained by the Serfling model, also reached a peak in the 2011-2012 season: 18.07 and 77.20, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. A significant increase in mortality in elderly people in Spain was detected by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and by the European mortality surveillance system in the winter of 2012, coinciding with a late influenza season, with a predominance of the A(H3N2) virus, and a cold wave in Spain. This study suggests that influenza could have been one of the main factors contributing to the mortality excess observed in the winter of 2012 in Spain. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Burden of Mortality Attributable to Diagnosed Diabetes: A Nationwide Analysis Based on Claims Data From 65 Million People in Germany.

PubMed

Jacobs, Esther; Hoyer, Annika; Brinks, Ralph; Kuss, Oliver; Rathmann, Wolfgang

2017-12-01

In Germany, as in many other countries, nationwide data on mortality attributable to diagnosed diabetes are not available. This study estimated the absolute number of excess deaths associated with diabetes (all types) and type 2 diabetes in Germany. A prevalence approach that included nationwide routine data from 64.9 million people insured in the German statutory health insurance system in 2010 was used for the calculation. Because nationwide data on diabetes mortality are lacking in Germany, the mortality rate ratio from the Danish National Diabetes Register was used. The absolute number of excess deaths associated with diabetes was calculated as the number of deaths due to diabetes minus the number of deaths due to diabetes with a mortality that was as high as in the population without diabetes. Furthermore, the mortality population-attributable fraction was calculated. A total of 174,627 excess deaths were due to diabetes in 2010, including 137,950 due to type 2 diabetes. Overall, 21% of all deaths in Germany were attributable to diabetes and 16% were attributable to type 2 diabetes. Most of the excess deaths (34% each) occurred in the 70- to 89-year-old age-group. In this first nationwide calculation of excess deaths related to diabetes in Germany, the results suggest that the official German estimates that rely on information from death certificates are grossly underestimated. Countries without national cohorts or diabetes registries could easily use this method to estimate the number of excess deaths due to diabetes. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Mortality attributable to tobacco among men in Sweden and other European countries: an analysis of data in a WHO report.

PubMed

Ramström, Lars; Wikmans, Tom

2014-01-01

It is well known that Swedish men have lower tobacco-related mortality than men in other European countries, but there are questions that need further investigation to what extent this is related to the specific patterns of tobacco use in Sweden, where use of snus, the Swedish low-nitrosamine oral tobacco, dominates over smoking in men but not in women. The recent WHO Global Report: Mortality Attributable to Tobacco provides a unique set of estimates of the health burden of tobacco in all countries of the world in the year 2004, and these data can help elucidating the above-mentioned questions. For Sweden and all other European Union Member States mortality data for a number of tobacco-related causes of death were extracted from the WHO Report. The size of the mortality advantage for selected causes of death in different age groups of Swedish men compared to men of the same age in Europe as a whole was calculated in terms of ratios of death rates attributable to tobacco. Differences between age groups with respect to tobacco-related mortality were analyzed with respect to differences in terms of development and status of smoking and snus use. The analyses also paid attention to differences between countries regarding tobacco control regulations. Among men in the European Union Member States the lowest level of mortality attributable to tobacco was consistently found in Sweden, while Swedish women showed levels similar to European average. A strong co-variation was found between the mortality advantage and the degree of dominance of snus use in the different age groups of Swedish men. Among Swedish women there are no age groups with dominant use of snus, and similar observations were therefore not possible for women. The above findings support the assumption that the widespread use of snus instead of cigarettes among Swedish men may be a major part of the explanation behind their position with Europe's lowest mortality attributable to tobacco.

The influence of interpregnancy interval on infant mortality.

PubMed

McKinney, David; House, Melissa; Chen, Aimin; Muglia, Louis; DeFranco, Emily

2017-03-01

In Ohio, the infant mortality rate is above the national average and the black infant mortality rate is more than twice the white infant mortality rate. Having a short interpregnancy interval has been shown to correlate with preterm birth and low birthweight, but the effect of short interpregnancy interval on infant mortality is less well established. We sought to quantify the population impact of interpregnancy interval on the risk of infant mortality. This was a statewide population-based retrospective cohort study of all births (n = 1,131,070) and infant mortalities (n = 8152) using linked Ohio birth and infant death records from January 2007 through September 2014. For this study we analyzed 5 interpregnancy interval categories: 0-<6, 6-<12, 12-<24, 24-<60, and ≥60 months. The primary outcome for this study was infant mortality. During the study period, 3701 infant mortalities were linked to a live birth certificate with an interpregnancy interval available. We calculated the frequency and relative risk of infant mortality for each interval compared to a referent interval of 12-<24 months. Stratified analyses by maternal race were also performed. Adjusted risks were estimated after accounting for statistically significant and biologically plausible confounding variables. Adjusted relative risk was utilized to calculate the attributable risk percent of short interpregnancy intervals on infant mortality. Short interpregnancy intervals were common in Ohio during the study period. Of all multiparous births, 20.5% followed an interval of <12 months. The overall infant mortality rate during this time was 7.2 per 1000 live births (6.0 for white mothers and 13.1 for black mothers). Infant mortalities occurred more frequently for births following short intervals of 0-<6 months (9.2 per 1000) and 6-<12 months (7.1 per 1000) compared to 12-<24 months (5.6 per 1000) (P < .001 and <.001). The highest risk for infant mortality followed interpregnancy intervals of 0-<6 months (adjusted relative risk, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.49) followed by interpregnancy intervals of 6-<12 months (adjusted relative risk, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.30). Analysis stratified by maternal race revealed similar findings. Attributable risk calculation showed that 24.2% of infant mortalities following intervals of 0-<6 months and 14.1% with intervals of 6-<12 months are attributable to the short interpregnancy interval. By avoiding short interpregnancy intervals of ≤12 months we estimate that in the state of Ohio 31 infant mortalities (20 white and 8 black) per year could have been prevented and the infant mortality rate could have been reduced from 7.2-7.0 during this time frame. An interpregnancy interval of 12-60 months (1-5 years) between birth and conception of next pregnancy is associated with lowest risk of infant mortality. Public health initiatives and provider counseling to optimize birth spacing has the potential to significantly reduce infant mortality for both white and black mothers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Interpregnancy Interval on Infant Mortality

PubMed Central

MCKINNEY, David; HOUSE, Melissa; CHEN, Aimin; MUGLIA, Louis; DEFRANCO, Emily

2017-01-01

Background In Ohio the infant mortality rate is above the national average and the black infant mortality rate is more than twice the white infant mortality rate. Having a short interpregnancy interval has been shown to correlate with preterm birth and low birth weight, but the effect of short interpregnancy interval on infant mortality is less well established. Objective To quantify the population impact of interpregnancy interval on the risk of infant mortality. Study Design This was a statewide population-based retrospective cohort study of all births (n=1,131,070) and infant mortalities (n=8,152) using linked Ohio birth and infant death records from 1/2007 through 9/2014. For this study we analyzed 5 interpregnancy interval categories: 0 to < 6 months, 6 to < 12 months, 12 to < 24 months, 24 to < 60 months, and ≥ 60 months. The primary outcome for this study was infant mortality. During the study period, 3701 infant mortalities were linked to a live birth certificate with an interpregnancy interval available. We calculated the frequency and relative risk (RR) of infant mortality for each interval compared to a referent interval of 12 to < 24 months. Stratified analyses by maternal race were also performed. Adjusted risks were estimated after accounting for statistically significant and biologically plausible confounding variables. Adjusted relative risk was utilized to calculate the attributable risk percent of short interpregnancy intervals on infant mortality. Results Short interpregnancy intervals were common in Ohio during the study period. 20.5% of all multiparous births followed an interval of < 12 months. The overall infant mortality rate during this time was 7.2 per 1000 live births (6.0 for white mothers and 13.1 for black mothers). Infant mortalities occurred more frequently for births that occurred following short intervals of 0 to < 6 months (9.2 per 1000) and 6 to < 12 months (7.1 per 1000) compared to 12 to < 24 months (5.6 per 1000), (p= <0.001 and <0.001). The highest risk for infant mortality followed interpregnancy intervals of 0 to < 6 months, adjRR 1.32 (95% CI 1.17–1.49) followed by interpregnancy intervals of 6 to < 12 months, adjRR 1.16 (95% CI 1.04–1.30). Analysis stratified by maternal race revealed similar findings. Attributable risk calculation showed that 24.2% of infant mortalities following intervals of 0 to < 6 months and 14.1% with intervals of 6 to < 12 months are attributable to the short interpregnancy interval. By avoiding short interpregnancy intervals of 12 months or less we estimate that in the state of Ohio 31 infant mortalities (20 white and 8 black) per year could have been prevented and the infant mortality rate could have been reduced from 7.2 to 7.0 during this time frame. Conclusion An interpregnancy interval of 12–60 months (1–5 years) between birth and conception of next pregnancy is associated with lowest risk of infant mortality. Public health initiatives and provider counseling to optimize birth spacing has the potential to significantly reduce infant mortality for both white and black mothers. PMID:28034653

A matter of life and death: population mortality and football results

PubMed Central

Kirkup, W; Merrick, D

2003-01-01

Objectives: To determine whether football results are associated with mortality from circulatory disease. Design: Retrospective study, comparing mortality on days of football matches between 18 August 1994 and 28 December 1999 with the results of the football matches. Setting: Newcastle and North Tyneside, Sunderland, Tees, and Leeds Health Authority areas of England. Subjects: All persons resident in Newcastle and North Tyneside, Sunderland, Tees, and Leeds Health Authority areas of England. Main outcome measures: Mortality attributable to acute myocardial infarction and stroke. Results: On days when the local professional football team lost at home, mortality attributable to acute myocardial infarction and stroke increased significantly in men (relative risk 1.28, 95% confidence intervals 1.11 to 1.47). No increase was observed in women. Conclusions: Results achieved by the local professional football team are associated systematically with circulatory disease death rates over a five year period in men, but not women. PMID:12775788

Mortality causes and outcomes in Indigenous populations of Canada, the United States, and Australia with rheumatic disease: A systematic review.

PubMed

Hurd, Kelle; Barnabe, Cheryl

2018-02-01

Indigenous populations of Canada, America, Australia, and New Zealand have increased rates and severity of rheumatic disease. Our objective was to summarize mortality outcomes and explore disease and social factors related to mortality. A systematic search was performed in medical (Medline, EMBASE, and CINAHL), Indigenous and conference abstract databases (to June 2015) combining search terms for Indigenous populations and rheumatic diseases. Studies were included if they reported measures of mortality (crude frequency, mortality rate, survival, and potential years of life lost (PYLL)) in Indigenous populations from the four countries. Of 5269 titles and abstracts identified, 504 underwent full-text review and 12 were included. No studies from New Zealand were found. In five Canadian studies of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients, First Nations ethnicity was associated with lower survival after adjusting for disease and social factors, and an increased frequency of death from lupus and its complications compared to Caucasians was found. All-cause mortality was higher in Native Americans (n = 2 studies) relative to Whites with SLE after adjusting for disease and social factors, but not in those with lupus nephritis alone. Australian Aborigines with SLE frequently developed infection and lupus complications leading to death (n = 3 studies). Mortality rates were increased in Pima Indians in the United States with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to those without RA. One study in Native Americans with scleroderma found nearly all deaths were related to progressive disease. Canadian and American Indigenous populations with SLE have increased mortality rates compared to Caucasian populations. Mortality in Canadian and Australian Indigenous populations with SLE, and in Native American populations with RA and scleroderma, is frequently attributed to disease progression or complications. The proportional attribution of rheumatic disease severity and social factors to mortality and complications leading to death between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations has not been fully evaluated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

County Poverty Concentration and Disparities in Unintentional Injury Deaths: A Fourteen-Year Analysis of 1.6 Million U.S. Fatalities

PubMed Central

Karb, Rebecca A.; Subramanian, S. V.; Fleegler, Eric W.

2016-01-01

Unintentional injury is the fourth leading cause of death in the United States, and mortality due to injury has risen over the past decade. The social determinants behind these rising trends have not been well documented. This study examines the relationship between county-level poverty and unintentional injury mortality in the United States from 1999–2012. Complete annual compressed mortality and population data for 1999–2012 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics and linked with census yearly county poverty measures. The outcomes examined were unintentional injury fatalities, overall and by six specific mechanisms: motor vehicle collisions, falls, accidental discharge of firearms, drowning, exposure to smoke or fire, and unintentional poisoning. Age-adjusted mortality rates and time trends for county poverty categories were calculated, and multivariate negative binomial regression was used to determine changes over time in both the relative risk of living in high poverty concentration areas and the population attributable fraction. Age-adjusted mortality rates for counties with > 20% poverty were 66% higher mortality in 1999 compared with counties with < 5% poverty (45.25 vs. 27.24 per 100,000; 95% CI for rate difference 15.57,20.46), and that gap widened in 2012 to 79% (44.54 vs. 24.93; 95% CI for rate difference 17.13,22.09). The relative risk of living in the highest poverty counties has increased for all injury mechanisms with the exception of accidental discharge of firearms. The population attributable fraction for all unintentional injuries rose from 0.22 (95% CI 0.13,0.30) in 1999 to 0.35 (95% CI 0.22,0.45) in 2012. This is the first study that uses comprehensive mortality data to document the associations between county poverty and injury mortality rates for the entire US population over a 14 year period. This study suggests that injury reduction interventions should focus on areas of high or increasing poverty. PMID:27144919

County Poverty Concentration and Disparities in Unintentional Injury Deaths: A Fourteen-Year Analysis of 1.6 Million U.S. Fatalities.

PubMed

Karb, Rebecca A; Subramanian, S V; Fleegler, Eric W

2016-01-01

Unintentional injury is the fourth leading cause of death in the United States, and mortality due to injury has risen over the past decade. The social determinants behind these rising trends have not been well documented. This study examines the relationship between county-level poverty and unintentional injury mortality in the United States from 1999-2012. Complete annual compressed mortality and population data for 1999-2012 were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics and linked with census yearly county poverty measures. The outcomes examined were unintentional injury fatalities, overall and by six specific mechanisms: motor vehicle collisions, falls, accidental discharge of firearms, drowning, exposure to smoke or fire, and unintentional poisoning. Age-adjusted mortality rates and time trends for county poverty categories were calculated, and multivariate negative binomial regression was used to determine changes over time in both the relative risk of living in high poverty concentration areas and the population attributable fraction. Age-adjusted mortality rates for counties with > 20% poverty were 66% higher mortality in 1999 compared with counties with < 5% poverty (45.25 vs. 27.24 per 100,000; 95% CI for rate difference 15.57,20.46), and that gap widened in 2012 to 79% (44.54 vs. 24.93; 95% CI for rate difference 17.13,22.09). The relative risk of living in the highest poverty counties has increased for all injury mechanisms with the exception of accidental discharge of firearms. The population attributable fraction for all unintentional injuries rose from 0.22 (95% CI 0.13,0.30) in 1999 to 0.35 (95% CI 0.22,0.45) in 2012. This is the first study that uses comprehensive mortality data to document the associations between county poverty and injury mortality rates for the entire US population over a 14 year period. This study suggests that injury reduction interventions should focus on areas of high or increasing poverty.

[Asthma mortality in the state of Nuevo León, México].

PubMed

Canseco González, C; González Díaz, S; Alvarado Valdés, C

1993-01-01

Definition of asthma has radically changed in the last few years. It has been given great importance to the its inflammatory component that can become irreversible. It is not clear yet the cause of the increase in prevalence and mortality of asthma observed in developed countries despite an increase in the number and efficacy of the therapeutic resources. There is still much to do on studying of the statistics on prevalence and mortality rate of the undeveloped countries. In Latin America, asthma prevalence, in 1983 was reported in 3.5% in seven countries. We reviewed the death certificates in the state of Nuevo León, México, in the 1980's decade, and compared the total death rate with those attributed to asthma, according to the diagnostics criteria code 493 from the International Classification of Diseases. We also reviewed the clinical records of patients admitted to a general hospital (University Hospital of Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico) as well as the autopsy reports from the same time period. General mortality rate, as well as the mortality rate due to respiratory diseases (asthma, emphysema, chronic bronchitis and others) was unchanged (5.5 x 100,000 people), despite an increase of 100% in the size of the population. Asthma prevalence has increased from 1.2% in 1979 to 2.5% in 1989 (approximately 75,000 cases). From the 1,114 autopsies done in the University Hospital in the 1980's decade, none could be attributed to an asthma death. It is mandatory that other states in this country report parallel studies to ours, so we can have reliable data on prevalence and mortality rates of asthma. In doing so, we can learn the distribution and consequences of this disease.

Global statistics on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use: 2017 status report.

PubMed

Peacock, Amy; Leung, Janni; Larney, Sarah; Colledge, Samantha; Hickman, Matthew; Rehm, Jürgen; Giovino, Gary A; West, Robert; Hall, Wayne; Griffiths, Paul; Ali, Robert; Gowing, Linda; Marsden, John; Ferrari, Alize J; Grebely, Jason; Farrell, Michael; Degenhardt, Louisa

2018-05-10

This review provides an up-to-date curated source of information on alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drug use and their associated mortality and burden of disease. Limitations in the data are also discussed, including how these can be addressed in the future. Online data sources were identified through expert review. Data were mainly obtained from the World Health Organization, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. In 2015, the estimated prevalence among the adult population was 18.3% for heavy episodic alcohol use (in the past 30 days); 15.2% for daily tobacco smoking; and 3.8%, 0.77%, 0.37%, and 0.35% for past-year cannabis, amphetamine, opioid, and cocaine use, respectively. European regions had the highest prevalence of heavy episodic alcohol use and daily tobacco use. The age-standardised prevalence of alcohol dependence was 843.2 per 100,000 people; for cannabis, opioids, amphetamines and cocaine dependence it was 259.3, 220.4, 86.0 and 52.5 per 100,000 people, respectively. High-Income North America region had among the highest rates of cannabis, opioid, and cocaine dependence. Attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were highest for tobacco (170.9 million DALYs), followed by alcohol (85.0 million) and illicit drugs (27.8 million). Substance-attributable mortality rates were highest for tobacco (110.7 deaths per 100,000 people), followed by alcohol and illicit drugs (33.0, and 6.9 deaths per 100,000 people, respectively). Attributable age-standardised mortality rates and DALYs for alcohol and illicit drugs were highest in Eastern Europe; attributable age-standardised tobacco mortality rates and DALYs were highest in Oceania. In 2015 alcohol and tobacco use between them cost the human population more than a quarter of a billion disability-adjusted life years, with illicit drugs costing a further tens of millions. Europeans proportionately suffered more but in absolute terms the mortality rate was greatest in low and middle income countries with large populations and where the quality of data was more limited. Better standardised and rigorous methods for data collection, collation and reporting are needed to assess more accurately the geographical and temporal trends in substance use and its disease burden. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

National and subnational mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 17 occupational risk factors in Iran, 1990-2015.

PubMed

Abtahi, Mehrnoosh; Koolivand, Ali; Dobaradaran, Sina; Yaghmaeian, Kamyar; Khaloo, Shokooh Sadat; Jorfi, Sahand; Keshmiri, Saeed; Nafez, Amir Hossein; Saeedi, Reza

2018-04-26

We estimated age-sex specific and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 17 individual occupational risks in Iran at the national and subnational levels in 1990-2015 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015). The burden of disease attributable to occupational risk factors was calculated using the comparative risk assessment methodology based on 10 outcomes and 21 risk-outcome pairs. The temporal changes in the attributable burden of disease were decomposed into the contribution of population growth, population ageing, risk-deleted DALY rate, and risk exposure. National DALYs attributable to occupational risks at the national level in 1990, 2005, and 2015 were 138,210 (95% uncertainty interval 64,429-223,028), 193,243 (91,645-310,281), and 228,310 (106,782-371,709), respectively indicating a total increase of 65% (65-67) during the study period. Between 1990 and 2015, the share of the attributable DALYs for women rose by 55% (51-58) from 13% (12-14) to 20% (19-21). The proportion of YLLs in national DALYs attributable to occupational risks during the study period slightly decreased from 24% in 1990 to 23% in 2015. The five occupational risks with the highest contributions in the national attributable DALYs in 2015 were ergonomic factors (107,490), noise (52,122), exposure to particulate matter, gases, and fumes (26,847), asthmagens (19,347), and exposure to asbestos (7842). From 1990 to 2015, the increase in total DALYs attributable to occupational carcinogens (112%) was higher than that for other occupational risks. During the study period, changes in risk deleted DALY rate and risk exposure led to decreases in total DALYs attributable to occupational risks by 14% and 30%, respectively. Based on the Gini coefficient, spatial inequality in DALY rate attributable to occupational risks at the provincial level decreased during 1990-2015. A comprehensive plan for management of exposure to occupational risks, especially occupational carcinogens can cause an important effect for control of the increasing trend of occupational health losses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Background mortality rates for recovering populations of Acropora cytherea in the Chagos Archipelago, central Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Pratchett, M S; Pisapia, C; Sheppard, C R C

2013-05-01

This study quantified background rates of mortality for Acropora cytherea in the Chagos Archipelago. Despite low levels of anthropogenic disturbance, 27.5% (149/541) of A. cytherea colonies exhibited some level of partial mortality, and 9.0% (49/541) of colonies had recent injuries. A total of 15.3% of the overall surface area of physically intact A. cytherea colonies was dead. Observed mortality was partly attributable to overtopping and/or self-shading among colonies. There were also low-densities of Acanthaster planci apparent at some study sites. However, most of the recent mortality recorded was associated with isolated infestations of the coral crab, Cymo melanodactylus. A. cytherea is a relatively fast growing coral and these levels of mortality may be biologically unimportant. However, few studies have measured background rates of coral mortality, especially in the absence of direct human disturbances. These data are important for assessing the impacts of increasing disturbances, especially in projecting likely recovery. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mortality of breast cancer in Taiwan, 1971–2010: Temporal changes and an age–period–cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Ho, M.-L.; Hsiao, Y.-H.; Su, S.-Y.

2015-01-01

The current paper describes the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality in Taiwan. Female breast cancer mortality data were collected from the Taiwan death registries for 1971–2010. The annual percentage changes, age- standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and age–period–cohort model were calculated. The mortality rates increased with advancing age groups when fixing the period. The percentage change in the breast cancer mortality rate increased from 54.79% at aged 20–44 years, to 149.78% in those aged 45–64 years (between 1971–75 and 2006–10). The mortality rates in the 45–64 age group increased steadily from 1971 to 1975 and 2006–10. The 1951 birth cohorts (actual birth cohort; 1947–55) showed peak mortalities in both the 50–54 and 45–49 age groups. We found that the 1951 birth cohorts had the greatest mortality risk from breast cancer. This might be attributed to the DDT that was used in large amounts to prevent deaths from malaria in Taiwan. However, future researches require DDT data to evaluate the association between breast cancer and DDT use. PMID:25020211

Mortality in British military participants in human experimental research into chemical warfare agents at Porton Down: cohort study

PubMed Central

Brooks, C; Linsell, L; Keegan, T J; Langdon, T; Fletcher, T; Nieuwenhuijsen, M J; Maconochie, N E S; Doyle, P; Beral, V

2009-01-01

Objective To investigate any long term effects on mortality in participants in experimental research related to chemical warfare agents from 1941 to 1989. Design Historical cohort study. Data sources Archive of UK government research facility at Porton Down, UK military personnel records, and national death and cancer records. Participants 18 276 male members of the UK armed forces who had spent one or more short periods (median 4 days between first and last test) at Porton Down and a comparison group of 17 600 non-Porton Down veterans followed to 31 December 2004. Main outcome measures Mortality rate ratio of Porton Down compared with non-Porton Down veterans and standardised mortality ratio of each veteran group compared with the general population. Both ratios adjusted for age group and calendar period. Results Porton Down veterans were similar to non-Porton Down veterans in year of enlistment (median 1951) but had longer military service (median 6.2 v 5.0 years). After a median follow-up of 43 years, 40% (7306) of Porton Down and 39% (6900) of non-Porton Down veterans had died. All cause mortality was slightly greater in Porton Down veterans (rate ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.10, P<0.001), more so for deaths outside the UK (1.26, 1.09 to 1.46). Of 12 cause specific groups examined, rate ratios in Porton Down veterans were increased for deaths attributed to infectious and parasitic (1.57, 1.07 to 2.29), genitourinary (1.46, 1.04 to 2.04), circulatory (1.07, 1.01 to 1.12), and external (non-medical) (1.17, 1.00 to 1.37) causes and decreased for deaths attributed to in situ, benign, and unspecified neoplasms (0.60, 0.37 to 0.99). There was no clear relation between type of chemical exposure and cause specific mortality. The mortality in both groups of veterans was lower than that in the general population (standardised mortality ratio 0.88, 0.85 to 0.90; 0.82, 0.80 to 0.84). Conclusions Mortality was slightly higher in Porton Down than non-Porton Down veterans. With lack of information on other important factors, such as smoking or service overseas, it is not possible to attribute the small excess mortality to chemical exposures at Porton Down. PMID:19318699

Variation in hospital mortality rates with inpatient cancer surgery.

PubMed

Wong, Sandra L; Revels, ShaʼShonda L; Yin, Huiying; Stewart, Andrew K; McVeigh, Andrea; Banerjee, Mousumi; Birkmeyer, John D

2015-04-01

To elucidate clinical mechanisms underlying variation in hospital mortality after cancer surgery : Thousands of Americans die every year undergoing elective cancer surgery. Wide variation in hospital mortality rates suggest opportunities for improvement, but these efforts are limited by uncertainty about why some hospitals have poorer outcomes than others. Using data from the 2006-2007 National Cancer Data Base, we ranked 1279 hospitals according to a composite measure of perioperative mortality after operations for bladder, esophagus, colon, lung, pancreas, and stomach cancers. We then conducted detailed medical record review of 5632 patients at 1 of 19 hospitals with low mortality rates (2.1%) or 30 hospitals with high mortality rates (9.1%). Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were used to compare risk-adjusted complication incidence and case-fatality rates among patients experiencing serious complications. The 7.0% absolute mortality difference between the 2 hospital groups could be attributed to higher mortality from surgical site, pulmonary, thromboembolic, and other complications. The overall incidence of complications was not different between hospital groups [21.2% vs 17.8%; adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-1.94]. In contrast, case-fatality after complications was more than threefold higher at high mortality hospitals than at low mortality hospitals (25.9% vs 13.6%; adjusted OR = 3.23, 95% CI: 1.56-6.69). Low mortality and high mortality hospitals are distinguished less by their complication rates than by how frequently patients die after a complication. Strategies for ensuring the timely recognition and effective management of postoperative complications will be essential in reducing mortality after cancer surgery.

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

Intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke with internal carotid artery occlusion: a systematic review of clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Mokin, Maxim; Kass-Hout, Tareq; Kass-Hout, Omar; Dumont, Travis M; Kan, Peter; Snyder, Kenneth V; Hopkins, L Nelson; Siddiqui, Adnan H; Levy, Elad I

2012-09-01

Strokes secondary to acute internal carotid artery (ICA) occlusion are associated with extremely poor prognosis. The best treatment approach to acute stroke in this setting is unknown. We sought to determine clinical outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke attributable to ICA occlusion treated with intravenous (IV) systemic thrombolysis or intra-arterial endovascular therapy. Using the PubMed database, we searched for studies that included patients with acute ischemic stroke attributable to ICA occlusion who received treatment with IV thrombolysis or intra-arterial endovascular interventions. Studies providing data on functional outcomes beyond 30 days and mortality and symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) rates were included in our analysis. We compared the proportions of patients with favorable functional outcomes, sICH, and mortality rates in the 2 treatment groups by calculating χ(2) and confidence intervals for odds ratios. We identified 28 studies with 385 patients in the IV thrombolysis group and 584 in the endovascular group. Rates of favorable outcomes and sICH were significantly higher in the endovascular group than the IV thrombolysis-only group (33.6% vs 24.9%, P=0.004 and 11.1% vs 4.9%, P=0.001, respectively). No significant difference in mortality rate was found between the groups (27.3% in the IV thrombolysis group vs 32.0% in the endovascular group; P=0.12). According to our systematic review, endovascular treatment of acute ICA occlusion results in improved clinical outcomes. A higher rate of sICH after endovascular treatment does not result in increased overall mortality rate.

Ischaemic heart disease in the former Soviet Union 1990–2015 according to the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study

PubMed Central

Murphy, Adrianna; Johnson, Catherine O; Roth, Gregory A; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Naghavi, Mohsen; Ng, Marie; Pogosova, Nana; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Moran, Andrew E

2018-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to compare ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and risk factor burden across former Soviet Union (fSU) and satellite countries and regions in 1990 and 2015. Methods The fSU and satellite countries were grouped into Central Asian, Central European and Eastern European regions. IHD mortality data for men and women of any age were gathered from national vital registration, and age, sex, country, year-specific IHD mortality rates were estimated in an ensemble model. IHD morbidity and mortality burden attributable to risk factors was estimated by comparative risk assessment using population attributable fractions. Results In 2015, age-standardised IHD death rates in Eastern European and Central Asian fSU countries were almost two times that of satellite states of Central Europe. Between 1990 and 2015, rates decreased substantially in Central Europe (men −43.5% (95% uncertainty interval −45.0%, −42.0%); women −42.9% (−44.0%, −41.0%)) but less in Eastern Europe (men −5.6% (−9.0, –3.0); women −12.2% (−15.5%, −9.0%)). Age-standardised IHD death rates also varied within regions: within Eastern Europe, rates decreased −51.7% in Estonian men (−54.0, −47.0) but increased +19.4% in Belarusian men (+12.0, +27.0). High blood pressure and cholesterol were leading risk factors for IHD burden, with smoking, body mass index, dietary factors and ambient air pollution also ranking high. Conclusions Some fSU countries continue to experience a high IHD burden, while others have achieved remarkable reductions in IHD mortality. Control of blood pressure, cholesterol and smoking are IHD prevention priorities. PMID:28883037

Mortality and years of life lost by colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity in Brazil (1990–2015): Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Introduction The aims of this study were to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost, investigated by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), due to colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity in Brazil and in the states; to analyze the temporal trend of these estimates over 25 years (1990–2015) compared with global estimates and according to the socioeconomic status of states of Brazil. Methods Databases from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) for Brazil, Brazilian states and global information were used. It was estimated the total number and the age-standardized rates of deaths and DALYs for colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity in the years 1990 and 2015. We used the Socioeconomic Development Index (SDI). Results Physical inactivity was responsible for a substantial number of deaths (1990: 1,302; 2015: 119,351) and DALYs (1990: 31,121; 2015: 87,116) due to colorectal cancer in Brazil. From 1990 to 2015, the mortality and DALYs due to colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity increased in Brazil (0.6% and 0.6%, respectively) and decreased around the world (-0.8% and -1.1%, respectively). The Brazilian states with better socioeconomic indicators had higher rates of mortality and morbidity by colorectal cancer due to physical inactivity (p<0.01). Physical inactivity was responsible for deaths and DALYs due to colorectal cancer in Brazil. Conclusions Over 25 years, the Brazilian population showed more worrisome results than around the world. Actions to combat physical inactivity and greater cancer screening and treatment are urgent in the Brazilian states. PMID:29390002

Mortality and years of life lost by colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity in Brazil (1990-2015): Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

PubMed

Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Tremblay, Mark Stephen; Souza, Maria de Fatima Marinho de; Mooney, Meghan; Naghavi, Mohsen; Malta, Deborah Carvalho

2018-01-01

The aims of this study were to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost, investigated by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), due to colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity in Brazil and in the states; to analyze the temporal trend of these estimates over 25 years (1990-2015) compared with global estimates and according to the socioeconomic status of states of Brazil. Databases from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) for Brazil, Brazilian states and global information were used. It was estimated the total number and the age-standardized rates of deaths and DALYs for colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity in the years 1990 and 2015. We used the Socioeconomic Development Index (SDI). Physical inactivity was responsible for a substantial number of deaths (1990: 1,302; 2015: 119,351) and DALYs (1990: 31,121; 2015: 87,116) due to colorectal cancer in Brazil. From 1990 to 2015, the mortality and DALYs due to colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity increased in Brazil (0.6% and 0.6%, respectively) and decreased around the world (-0.8% and -1.1%, respectively). The Brazilian states with better socioeconomic indicators had higher rates of mortality and morbidity by colorectal cancer due to physical inactivity (p<0.01). Physical inactivity was responsible for deaths and DALYs due to colorectal cancer in Brazil. Over 25 years, the Brazilian population showed more worrisome results than around the world. Actions to combat physical inactivity and greater cancer screening and treatment are urgent in the Brazilian states.

[Perioperative mortality and morbidity in the year 2000 in 502 Japanese certified anesthesia-training hospitals: with a special reference to ASA-physical status--report of the Japan Society of Anesthesiologists Committee on Operating Room Safety].

PubMed

Irita, Kazuo; Kawashima, Yasuo; Tsuzaki, Koichi; Iwao, Yasuhide; Kobayashi, Tsutomu; Seo, Norimasa; Goto, Yasuyuki; Morita, Kiyoshi; Shiraishi, Yoshito; Nakao, Yasuo; Tanaka, Yoshifumi; Tosaki, Youko; Dohi, Shuji; Obara, Hidefumi

2002-01-01

Perioperative mortality and morbidity in Japan from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 2000 were studied retrospectively. Committee on Operating Room Safety in Japanese Society of Anesthesiologists (JSA) sent confidential questionnaires to 794 certified training hospitals of JSA and received answers from 67.6% of the hospitals. We analyzed their answers with a special reference to ASA physical status (ASA-PS). The total number of anesthesia available for this analysis was 897,733. The percentages of patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E are 38.0, 40.3, 8.5, 0.4, 4.3, 5.3, 2.5, and 0.7%, respectively. Mortality and morbidity from all kinds of causes including anesthetic management, intraoperative events, co-existing diseases, and surgical problems were as follows. The incidences of cardiac arrest (per 10,000 cases of anesthesia) were 1.11, 3.26, 12.25, 54.60, 0.77, 4.46, 21.08 and 217.75 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The incidences of critical events including cardiac arrest, severe hypotension, and severe hypoxemia were 6.89, 20.22, 62.18, 148.21, 6.71, 20.38, 106.72 and 592.21 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The mortality rates (death during anesthesia and within 7 postoperative days) after cardiac arrest were 0.26, 0.77, 3.69, 41.60, 0.00, 1.06, 9.42 and 163.31 per 10,000 cases of anesthesia in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The overall mortality rates were 0.32, 1.38, 9.75, 70.20, 0.26, 2.12, 29.15 and 353.02 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. Overall mortality and morbidity were higher in emergency anesthesia than in elective anesthesia. ASA-PS correlated well with overall mortality and morbidity, regardless of etiology. The incidences of cardiac arrest totally attributable to anesthesia were 0.23, 0.50, 1.32, 0.00, 0.00, 0.85, 2.69 and 4.95 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The incidences of all critical events totally attributable to anesthesia were 3.13, 5.56, 11.46, 5.20, 3.87, 5.94, 13.90 and 14.85 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The mortality rates after cardiac arrest totally attributable to anesthesia were 0.03, 0.03, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.21, 0.45 and 3.30 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The overall mortality rates totally attributable to anesthesia were 0.03, 0.06, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.21, 0.45 and 6.60 in patients with ASA-PS of I, II, III, IV, I E, II E, III E, and IV E, respectively. The overall mortality rate totally attributable to anesthesia among patients with good physical status (ASA-PS of I, II, I E, II E) was 0.05. Anesthetic management was mainly responsible for critical events in patients with good physical status, while coexisting diseases were in those with poor physical status. Surgical problems including procedures and massive hemorrhage were the leading causes of mortality in patients with good physical status. We reconfirmed that ASA-PS is useful to predict perioperative mortality and morbidity. It also seems likely that we should make much more efforts to reduce anesthetic morbidity in patients with good physical status, and to improve preanesthetic assessment and preparation in those with poor physical status. Reducing mortality and morbidity from surgical problems is also required for improving perioperative mortality.

Impact of Nonoptimal Intakes of Saturated, Polyunsaturated, and Trans Fat on Global Burdens of Coronary Heart Disease.

PubMed

Wang, Qianyi; Afshin, Ashkan; Yakoob, Mohammad Yawar; Singh, Gitanjali M; Rehm, Colin D; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Micha, Renata; Shi, Peilin; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-01-20

Saturated fat (SFA), ω-6 (n-6) polyunsaturated fat (PUFA), and trans fat (TFA) influence risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but attributable CHD mortalities by country, age, sex, and time are unclear. National intakes of SFA, n-6 PUFA, and TFA were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical model based on country-specific dietary surveys; food availability data; and, for TFA, industry reports on fats/oils and packaged foods. Etiologic effects of dietary fats on CHD mortality were derived from meta-analyses of prospective cohorts and CHD mortality rates from the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases study. Absolute and proportional attributable CHD mortality were computed using a comparative risk assessment framework. In 2010, nonoptimal intakes of n-6 PUFA, SFA, and TFA were estimated to result in 711 800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 680 700-745 000), 250 900 (95% UI 236 900-265 800), and 537 200 (95% UI 517 600-557 000) CHD deaths per year worldwide, accounting for 10.3% (95% UI 9.9%-10.6%), 3.6%, (95% UI 3.5%-3.6%) and 7.7% (95% UI 7.6%-7.9%) of global CHD mortality. Tropical oil-consuming countries were estimated to have the highest proportional n-6 PUFA- and SFA-attributable CHD mortality, whereas Egypt, Pakistan, and Canada were estimated to have the highest proportional TFA-attributable CHD mortality. From 1990 to 2010 globally, the estimated proportional CHD mortality decreased by 9% for insufficient n-6 PUFA and by 21% for higher SFA, whereas it increased by 4% for higher TFA, with the latter driven by increases in low- and middle-income countries. Nonoptimal intakes of n-6 PUFA, TFA, and SFA each contribute to significant estimated CHD mortality, with important heterogeneity across countries that informs nation-specific clinical, public health, and policy priorities. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Impact of the Garrett Lee Smith youth suicide prevention program on suicide mortality.

PubMed

Walrath, Christine; Garraza, Lucas Godoy; Reid, Hailey; Goldston, David B; McKeon, Richard

2015-05-01

We examined whether a reduction in youth suicide mortality occurred between 2007 and 2010 that could reasonably be attributed to Garrett Lee Smith (GLS) program efforts. We compared youth mortality rates across time between counties that implemented GLS-funded gatekeeper training sessions (the most frequently implemented suicide prevention strategy among grantees) and a set of matched counties in which no GLS-funded training occurred. A rich set of background characteristics, including preintervention mortality rates, was accounted for with a combination of propensity score-based techniques. We also analyzed closely related outcomes that we did not expect to be affected by GLS as control outcomes. Counties implementing GLS training had significantly lower suicide rates among the population aged 10 to 24 years the year after GLS training than similar counties that did not implement GLS training (1.33 fewer deaths per 100 000; P = .02). Simultaneously, we found no significant difference in terms of adult suicide mortality rates or nonsuicide youth mortality the year after the implementation. These results support the existence of an important reduction in youth suicide rates resulting from the implementation of GLS suicide prevention programming.

Apparent climatically induced increase of tree mortality rates in a temperate forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2007-01-01

We provide a first detailed analysis of long-term, annual-resolution demographic trends in a temperate forest. After tracking the fates of 21 338 trees in a network of old-growth forest plots in the Sierra Nevada of California, we found that mortality rate, but not the recruitment rate, increased significantly over the 22 years of measurement (1983-2004). Mortality rates increased in both of two dominant taxonomic groups (Abies and Pinus) and in different forest types (different elevational zones). The increase in overall mortality rate resulted from an increase in tree deaths attributed to stress and biotic causes, and coincided with a temperature-driven increase in an index of drought. Our findings suggest that these forests (and by implication, other water-limited forests) may be sensitive to temperature-driven drought stress, and may be poised for die-back if future climates continue to feature rising temperatures without compensating increases in precipitation. ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Clinical and microbiological characteristics of bloodstream infections in a tertiary hospital in Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil.

PubMed

Tenório, Maria Tereza Freitas; Porfírio, Zenaldo; Lopes, Antonio Carlos; Cendon, Sonia

2010-01-01

We observed the clinical and microbiological characteristics of several stages of bloodstream infections (BSI), as well as the mortality attributed to it in a tertiary hospital in the northeast of Brazil (in the city of Maceió, Alagoas). A prospective cohort of 143 patients who had at least one positive blood culture was enrolled in the study. Their clinical evolution was followed up for 30 days from October 2005 to December 2006. The relation among the qualitative variables was verified through Chi-square test. The significance level was 5%. The statistical package adopted was SPSS 15.0 for Windows. Up to the thirtieth day, 30.1% of the patients presented bacteremia and 69.9% developed sepsis. Among these, 20.3% developed severe sepsis and 10.5% septic shock. The mortality attributed to it was 37.8%. In bacteremia, sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock conditions, mortality rates were 9.3%, 50%, 65.5%, and 84.6%, respectively. Respiratory (32.2%) and urinary (14%) sources and the ones related to central venous catheter (14%) were prevalent. In the wards 55.12% of the cases developed sepsis, whereas in the intensive care units, the rate was 87.69% (p < 0.05). Chronic renal failure, diabetes mellitus, and neuropathy were present in 21.7%, 26.6%, and 29.4% of the cases, respectively. Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (25.9%), Staphylococcus aureus (21%), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (14%) were the most present microorganism in the sample. The high morbidity and mortality rates in this study are attributed to the lack of knowledge on BSI characteristics and on instituted protocols for detection and treatment in early stages.

Women's preferences for obstetric care in rural Ethiopia: a population-based discrete choice experiment in a region with low rates of facility delivery.

PubMed

Kruk, M E; Paczkowski, M M; Tegegn, A; Tessema, F; Hadley, C; Asefa, M; Galea, S

2010-11-01

Delivery attended by skilled professionals is essential to reducing maternal mortality. Although the facility delivery rate in Ethiopia's rural areas is extremely low, little is known about which health system characteristics most influence women's preferences for delivery services. In this study, women's preferences for attributes of health facilities for delivery in rural Ethiopia were investigated. A population-based discrete choice experiment (DCE) was fielded in Gilgel Gibe, in southwest Ethiopia, among women with a delivery in the past 5 years. Women were asked to select a hypothetical health facility for future delivery from two facilities on a picture card. A hierarchical Bayesian procedure was used to estimate utilities associated with facility attributes: distance, type of provider, provider attitude, drugs and medical equipment, transport and cost. 1006 women completed 8045 DCE choice tasks. Among them, 93.8% had delivered their last child at home. The attributes with the greatest influence on the overall utility of a health facility for delivery were availability of drugs and equipment (mean β=3.9, p<0.01), seeing a doctor versus a health extension worker (mean β=2.1, p<0.01) and a receptive provider attitude (mean β=1.4, p<0.01). Women in rural southwest Ethiopia who have limited personal experience with facility delivery nonetheless value health facility attributes that indicate high technical quality: availability of drugs and equipment and physician providers. Well-designed policy experiments that measure the contribution of quality improvements to facility delivery rates in Ethiopia and other countries with low health service utilisation and high maternal mortality may inform national efforts to reduce maternal mortality.

Iraq War mortality estimates: a systematic review.

PubMed

Tapp, Christine; Burkle, Frederick M; Wilson, Kumanan; Takaro, Tim; Guyatt, Gordon H; Amad, Hani; Mills, Edward J

2008-03-07

In March 2003, the United States invaded Iraq. The subsequent number, rates, and causes of mortality in Iraq resulting from the war remain unclear, despite intense international attention. Understanding mortality estimates from modern warfare, where the majority of casualties are civilian, is of critical importance for public health and protection afforded under international humanitarian law. We aimed to review the studies, reports and counts on Iraqi deaths since the start of the war and assessed their methodological quality and results. We performed a systematic search of 15 electronic databases from inception to January 2008. In addition, we conducted a non-structured search of 3 other databases, reviewed study reference lists and contacted subject matter experts. We included studies that provided estimates of Iraqi deaths based on primary research over a reported period of time since the invasion. We excluded studies that summarized mortality estimates and combined non-fatal injuries and also studies of specific sub-populations, e.g. under-5 mortality. We calculated crude and cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence and average deaths per day for each study, where not already provided. Thirteen studies met the eligibility criteria. The studies used a wide range of methodologies, varying from sentinel-data collection to population-based surveys. Studies assessed as the highest quality, those using population-based methods, yielded the highest estimates. Average deaths per day ranged from 48 to 759. The cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence ranged from 0.64 to 10.25 per 1,000 per year. Our review indicates that, despite varying estimates, the mortality burden of the war and its sequelae on Iraq is large. The use of established epidemiological methods is rare. This review illustrates the pressing need to promote sound epidemiologic approaches to determining mortality estimates and to establish guidelines for policy-makers, the media and the public on how to interpret these estimates.

Alcohol consumption and pancreatitis mortality in Russia.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury E

2014-07-28

Pancreatitis is a major public health problem with high associated economic costs. The incidence of pancreatitis has increased in many European countries in recent decade. Accumulated research and empirical evidence suggests that excessive alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for both acute and chronic pancreatitis. The aim of this study was to examine the aggregate-level relation between the alcohol consumption and pancreatitis mortality rates in Russia. Age-standardized sex-specific male and female pancreatitis mortality data for the period 1970-2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) time series analysis. Alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female pancreatitis mortality rates: a 1 liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 7.0% increase in the male pancreatitis mortality rate and in 2.3% increase in the female mortality rate. The results of the analysis suggest that 63.1% of all male pancreatitis deaths and 26.8% female deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol. Conclusions The outcomes of this study provide indirect support for the hypothesis that unfavorable mixture of higher overall level of alcohol consumption and binge drinking pattern is an important contributor to the pancreatitis mortality rate in Russian Federation.

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in the Slovak Republic between 1993-2008.

PubMed

Psota, Marek; Bandosz, Piotr; Gonçalvesová, Eva; Avdičová, Mária; Bucek Pšenková, Mária; Studenčan, Martin; Pekarčíková, Jarmila; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2018-01-01

Between the years 1993 and 2008, mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Slovak Republic have decreased by almost one quarter. However, this was a smaller decline than in neighbouring countries. The aim of this modelling study was therefore to quantify the contributions of risk factor changes and the use of evidence-based medical therapies to the CHD mortality decline between 1993 and 2008. We identified, obtained and scrutinised the data required for the model. These data detailed trends in the major population cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes prevalence, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity levels), and also the uptake of all standard CHD treatments. The main data sources were official statistics (National Health Information Centre and Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) and national representative studies (AUDIT, SLOVAKS, SLOVASeZ, CINDI, EHES, EHIS). The previously validated IMPACT policy model was then used to combine and integrate these data with effect sizes from published meta-analyses quantifying the effectiveness of specific evidence-based treatments, and population-wide changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Results were expressed as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) attributable to risk factor changes or treatments. Uncertainties were explored using sensitivity analyses. Between 1993 and 2008 age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Slovak Republic (SR) decreased by 23% in men and 26% in women aged 25-74 years. This represented some 1820 fewer CHD deaths in 2008 than expected if mortality rates had not fallen. The IMPACT model explained 91% of this mortality decline. Approximately 50% of the decline was attributable to changes in acute phase and secondary prevention treatments, particularly acute and chronic treatments for heart failure (≈12%), acute coronary syndrome treatments (≈9%) and secondary prevention following AMI and revascularisation (≈8%). Changes in CHD risk factors explained approximately 41% of the total mortality decrease, mainly reflecting reductions in total serum cholesterol. However, other risk factors demonstrated adverse trends and thus generated approximately 740 additional deaths. Our analysis suggests that approximately half the CHD mortality fall recently observed in the SR may be attributable to the increased use of evidence-based treatments. However, the adverse trends observed in all the major cardiovascular risk factors (apart from total cholesterol) are deeply worrying. They highlight the need for more energetic population-wide prevention policies such as tobacco control, reducing salt and industrial trans fats content in processed food, clearer food labelling and regulated marketing of processed foods and sugary drinks.

BIOPHYSICAL CHARACTERISATION OF THE UNDER-APPRECIATED AND IMPORTANT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HEART RATE VARIABILITY AND HEART RATE

PubMed Central

Monfredi, Oliver; Lyashkov, Alexey E; Johnsen, Anne-Berit; Inada, Shin; Schneider, Heiko; Wang, Ruoxi; Nirmalan, Mahesh; Wisloff, Ulrik; Maltsev, Victor A; Lakatta, Edward G; Zhang, Henggui; Boyett, Mark R

2014-01-01

Heart rate variability (beat-to-beat changes in the RR interval) has attracted considerable attention over the last 30+ years (PubMed currently lists >17,000 publications). Clinically, a decrease in heart rate variability is correlated to higher morbidity and mortality in diverse conditions, from heart disease to foetal distress. It is usually attributed to fluctuation in cardiac autonomic nerve activity. We calculated heart rate variability parameters from a variety of cardiac preparations (including humans, living animals, Langendorff-perfused heart and single sinoatrial nodal cell) in diverse species, combining this with data from previously published papers. We show that regardless of conditions, there is a universal exponential decay-like relationship between heart rate variability and heart rate. Using two biophysical models, we develop a theory for this, and confirm that heart rate variability is primarily dependent on heart rate and cannot be used in any simple way to assess autonomic nerve activity to the heart. We suggest that the correlation between a change in heart rate variability and altered morbidity and mortality is substantially attributable to the concurrent change in heart rate. This calls for re-evaluation of the findings from many papers that have not adjusted properly or at all for heart rate differences when comparing heart rate variability in multiple circumstances. PMID:25225208

[Heart failure mortality in Spain: is there an andalusian paradox?].

PubMed

Jiménez-Navarro, M; Gómez-Doblas, J; Molero, E; Galván, E de Teresa

2006-06-01

Congestive heart failure has a high mortality, as reflected in different clinical trials and observational studies. Spain, as other countries around the Mediterranean basin, have a relatively low rate of coronary deaths, attributed to the so-called Mediterranean lifestyle. Andalusia, in the southern most part of Spain, constitutes the paradigm of Mediterranean lifestyle. However, different reports show that the prevalence of ischemic heart disease is higher in Andalusia than in other zones of Spain. Thus the mortality rate due to heart failure in Spain in the year 2000 per 100,000 inhabitants was 27.3 in men and 28.88 in women and each one of the eight Andalusia provinces had greater rates than the national mean in both men and woman. Even in countries with a relatively low prevalence of coronary heart disease as is the case in Spain, heart failure mortality seems to be parallel to local differences in IHD prevalence.

QuickStats: Age-Adjusted Death Rates* Attributable to Alcohol-Induced Causes,† by Race/Ethnicity - United States, 1999-2015.

PubMed

2017-05-12

In 2015, mortality from alcohol-induced causes reached the highest rate during 1999-2015 of 9.1 deaths per 100,000 U.S. standard population. Alcohol-induced death rates for the Hispanic population remained the highest (9.9 per 100,000 U.S. standard population), followed by the non-Hispanic white population (9.6). For the non-Hispanic black population, the alcohol-induced death rate decreased 33% from 1999 to 2015, while the rate increased by 50% during the same period for the non-Hispanic white population. Overall, from 1999 to 2015, mortality from alcohol-induced causes increased 28% (7.1 to 9.1).

The Role of Race/Ethnicity in Alcohol-attributable Injury in the United States

PubMed Central

Keyes, Katherine M.; Liu, Xianfang C.; Cerda, Magdalena

2012-01-01

A substantial proportion of injuries worldwide are attributable to alcohol consumption, and US estimates indicate that the drinking patterns of racial/ethnic groups vary considerably. The authors reviewed evidence from 19 publications regarding racial/ethnic differences in overall alcohol-attributable injury as well as percent blood alcohol content positivity for injury deaths in the United States. They found that Native Americans evidence higher rates of alcohol-attributable motor vehicle crash fatality, suicide, and falls compared with other racial/ethnic groups; conversely, Asians evidence lower rates of alcohol-attributable injury than other racial/ethnic groups. The rate of alcohol positivity and intoxication among Hispanics is disproportionately high relative to estimates of alcohol use. Black subgroups also evidence higher rates of alcohol positivity than would be expected given estimates of alcohol use, including for alcohol positivity among drivers of fatally injured black children and homicide. These findings highlight the continued need for public health focus on Native American populations with respect to alcohol consumption and injury. Further, the disparity in alcohol-attributable injury mortality among black and Hispanic groups relative to their reported rates of alcohol consumption is an overlooked area of research. The authors review potential social determinants of racial/ethnic disparities in alcohol-attributable injuries and identify directions for further research on these patterns. PMID:21930592

The Role of Race/Ethnicity in Alcohol-attributable Injury in the United States

PubMed Central

Keyes, Katherine M.; Liu, Xianfang C.; Cerda, Magdalena

2017-01-01

A substantial proportion of injuries worldwide are attributable to alcohol consumption, and US estimates indicate that the drinking patterns of racial/ethnic groups vary considerably. The authors reviewed evidence from 19 publications regarding racial/ethnic differences in overall alcohol-attributable injury as well as percent blood alcohol content positivity for injury deaths in the United States. They found that Native Americans evidence higher rates of alcohol-attributable motor vehicle crash fatality, suicide, and falls compared with other racial/ethnic groups; conversely, Asians evidence lower rates of alcohol-attributable injury than other racial/ethnic groups. The rate of alcohol positivity and intoxication among Hispanics is disproportionately high relative to estimates of alcohol use. Black subgroups also evidence higher rates of alcohol positivity than would be expected given estimates of alcohol use, including for alcohol positivity among drivers of fatally injured black children and homicide. These findings highlight the continued need for public health focus on Native American populations with respect to alcohol consumption and injury. Further, the disparity in alcohol-attributable injury mortality among black and Hispanic groups relative to their reported rates of alcohol consumption is an overlooked area of research. The authors review potential social determinants of racial/ethnic disparities in alcohol-attributable injuries and identify directions for further research on these patterns. PMID:23441581

Directly alcohol-attributable mortality by industry and occupation in a Spanish Census cohort of economically active population.

PubMed

Pulido, José; Vallejo, Fernando; Alonso-López, Ignacio; Regidor, Enrique; Villar, Fernando; de la Fuente, Luis; Domingo-Salvany, Antonia; Barrio, Gregorio

2017-11-01

To assess disparities in directly alcohol-attributable (DAA) mortality by industry/occupation in Spain during 2002-2011 and the contribution of different socio-demographic factors, including socioeconomic position, to explain such disparity. Nationwide cohort study covering 16 million economically active people living in Spain in 2001. Deaths at age 25-64 were analyzed. Subjects were classified by employment status, industry and occupation at baseline. Poisson regression models were built, calculating rate ratios (RRs) compared to all employees or those in the education sector. DAA mortality was much higher in the unemployed than in employees (Crude RR: 2.4; 95% CI: 2.3-2.6) and varied widely across industries/occupations. Crude RRs>3.0 (p<0.05) compared to teachers were found in employees in extractive industries/fishing, agriculture/livestock, construction, catering/accommodation and protective services. Socio-demographic factors, especially age, gender and educational attainment contributed more to explain risk disparities than other factors or potential selection bias. However, after exhaustive sociodemographic adjustment, including education attainment and material wealth, a RR>1.33 (p<0.05) remained in unemployed, catering/accommodation employees and unskilled construction workers. RRs were significantly larger in women than men (p<0.05) among mineworkers/fishworkers/sailors (RR=8.6 vs. 1.2) and drivers (RR=3.7 vs. 1.0). The results could be extrapolated to all alcohol-attributable mortality since disparities for other strongly alcohol-related deaths, although smaller, were in the same direction. Given the wide occupational disparities in alcohol-attributable mortality, implementation of special measures to reduce this mortality in the highest risk groups is fully justified. Future research should better characterize the explanatory factors of disparities and their role in the causal chain. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Risk factors of mortality in patients with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii bacteremia.

PubMed

Liu, Chang-Pan; Shih, Shou-Chuan; Wang, Nai-Yu; Wu, Alice Y; Sun, Fang-Ju; Chow, Shan-Fan; Chen, Te-Li; Yan, Tsong-Rong

2016-12-01

Identification of risks of mortality for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB), with early implementation of an appropriate therapy, is crucial for the patients' outcome. The aim of this study was to survey mortality risk factors in 182 patients with CRAB bacteremia in a medical center in Taiwan. A total of 182 isolates of CRAB bacteremia were collected from 2009 to 2012 in Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan These isolates were identified by using the genotypic method. Risk of attributable mortality analysis was carried out with a Cox proportional hazards model. The 182 CRAB isolates belonged to 38 different pulsotypes. The attributable mortality rate of the 182 patients was 58.24%. The risk factors for attributable mortality included intensive care unit stay [hazard ratio (HR): 2.27; p = 0.011], an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of >20 (HR: 2.19; p < 0.001), respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia (HR: 3.40; p < 0.001), and previous use of ceftriaxone (HR: 2.51; p = 0.011). The appropriateness of antimicrobial therapy was 18.87% (20/106) in the mortality group versus 88.16% (67/76) in the survivor group (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of CRAB to colistin was 100% and to tigecycline was 40.11%. The risk factors for mortality for CRAB included intensive care unit stay, a high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia, and previous use of ceftriaxone. Early implementation of an antimicrobial agent that had the highest in vitro activity against CRAB in patients at risk of CRAB bacteremia and high mortality may improve their outcome. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison of pediatric cardiac surgical mortality rates from national administrative data to contemporary clinical standards.

PubMed

Welke, Karl F; Diggs, Brian S; Karamlou, Tara; Ungerleider, Ross M

2009-01-01

Despite the superior coding and risk adjustment of clinical data, the ready availability, national scope, and perceived unbiased nature of administrative data make it the choice of governmental agencies and insurance companies for evaluating quality and outcomes. We calculated pediatric cardiac surgery mortality rates from administrative data and compared them with widely quoted standards from clinical databases. Pediatric cardiac surgical operations were retrospectively identified by ICD-9-CM diagnosis and procedure codes from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) 1988-2005 and the Kids' Inpatient Database (KID) 2003. Cases were grouped into Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery, version 1 (RACHS-1) categories. In-hospital mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. A total of 55,164 operations from the NIS and 10,945 operations from the KID were placed into RACHS-1 categories. During the 18-year period, the overall NIS mortality rate for pediatric cardiac surgery decreased from 8.7% (95% confidence interval, 8.0% to 9.3%) to 4.6% (95% confidence interval, 4.3% to 5.0%). Mortality rates by RACHS-1 category decreased significantly as well. The KID and NIS mortality rates from comparable years were similar. Overall mortality rates derived from administrative data were higher than those from contemporary national clinical data, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database, or published data from pediatric cardiac specialty centers. Although category-specific mortality rates were higher in administrative data than in clinical data, a minority of the relationships reached statistical significance. Despite substantial improvement, mortality rates from administrative data remain higher than those from clinical data. The discrepancy may be attributable to several factors: differences in database design and composition, differences in data collection and reporting structures, and variation in data quality.

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

PubMed

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

2016-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7-18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1-1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

Cardiac Surgery in Children of Jehovah's Witnesses

PubMed Central

Carmichael, Michael J.; Cooley, Denton A.; Kuykendall, R. Craig; Walker, William E.

1985-01-01

A retrospective study was done of 73 consecutive Jehovah's Witness children less than 2 years of age who were operated on for lesions of the heart and major vessels. The series was divided into three groups: (1) neonates less than 31 days old, (2) children between 31 days and 2 years, and (3) children requiring cardiopulmonary bypass. The overall mortality rate for the series was 12.3% (9/73). Only three of the nine deaths were complicated by blood loss and anemia. The mortality rate for Group I was 18.2% (2/11). Only one of the two deaths was partly attributable to anemia. The overall mortality rate for Group II was 14.9% (7/47). Only two of these seven deaths were complicated by anemia. No deaths occurred among the 15 patients in Group III. Bloodless prime hemodilution techniques were used in all patients. Based upon our data, we have concluded that cardiac surgery can be performed when indicated on children of Jehovah's Witnesses with acceptable mortality rates and relatively straightforward perioperative care. PMID:15227042

The big ban on bituminous coal sales revisited: Serious epidemics and pronounced trends feign excess mortality previously attributed to heavy black-smoke exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wittmaack, K.

The effect of banning bituminous coal sales on the black-smoke concentration and the mortality rates in Dublin, Ireland, has been analyzed recently. Based on the application of standard epidemiological procedures, the authors concluded that, as a result of the ban, the total nontrauma death rate was reduced strongly (-8.0% unadjusted, -5.7% adjusted). The purpose of this study was to reanalyze the original data with the aim of clarifying the three most important aspects of the study, (a) the effect of epidemics, (b) the trends in mortality rates due to advances in public health care, and (c) the correlation between mortalitymore » rates and black-smoke concentrations. Particular attention has been devoted to a detailed evaluation of the time dependence of mortality rates, stratified by season. Death rates were found to be strongly enhanced during three severe pre-ban winter-spring epidemics. The cardiovascular mortality rates exhibited a continuous decrease over the whole study period, in general accordance with trends in the rest of Ireland. These two effects can fully account for the previously identified apparent correlation between reduced mortality and the very pronounced ban-related lowering of the black-smoke concentration. The third important finding was that in nonepidemic pre-ban seasons even large changes in the concentration of black smoke had no detectable effect on mortality rates. The reanalysis suggests that epidemiological studies exploring the effect of ambient particulate matter on mortality require improved tools allowing proper adjustment for epidemics and trends.« less

Sex-Based Differences in Rates, Causes, and Predictors of Death Among Injection Drug Users in Vancouver, Canada

PubMed Central

Hayashi, Kanna; Dong, Huiru; Marshall, Brandon D. L.; Milloy, Michael-John; Montaner, Julio S. G.; Wood, Evan; Kerr, Thomas

2016-01-01

In the present study, we sought to identify rates, causes, and predictors of death among male and female injection drug users (IDUs) in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, during a period of expanded public health interventions. Data from prospective cohorts of IDUs in Vancouver were linked to the provincial database of vital statistics to ascertain rates and causes of death between 1996 and 2011. Mortality rates were analyzed using Poisson regression and indirect standardization. Predictors of mortality were identified using multivariable Cox regression models stratified by sex. Among the 2,317 participants, 794 (34.3%) of whom were women, there were 483 deaths during follow-up, with a rate of 32.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 29.3, 35.0) deaths per 1,000 person-years. Standardized mortality ratios were 7.28 (95% CI: 6.50, 8.14) for men and 15.56 (95% CI: 13.31, 18.07) for women. During the study period, mortality rates related to infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) declined among men but remained stable among women. In multivariable analyses, HIV seropositivity was independently associated with mortality in both sexes (all P < 0.05). The excess mortality burden among IDUs in our cohorts was primarily attributable to HIV infection; compared with men, women remained at higher risk of HIV-related mortality, indicating a need for sex-specific interventions to reduce mortality among female IDUs in this setting. PMID:26865265

Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newby, Jesse R.; Mills, L. Scott; Ruth, Toni K.; Pletscher, Daniel H.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Quigley, Howard B.; Murphy, Kerry M.; DeSimone, Rich

2013-01-01

An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western Montana Garnet Mountain system were exposed to greater human-induced mortality, which changed over the study due to the closure of a 915 km2 area to hunting. The NGYE’s population growth depended on inter-population movements, as did its ability to act as a source to the larger region. The heavily hunted Garnet area was a sink with a declining population until the hunting closure, after which it became a source with positive intrinsic growth and a 16× increase in emigration. We also examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of individual dispersal attributes (emigration, dispersal distance, establishment success) of subadult pumas (N = 126). Human-caused mortality was found to negatively impact all three dispersal components. Our results demonstrate the influence of human-induced mortality on not only within population vital rates, but also inter-population vital rates, affecting the magnitude and mechanisms of local population’s contribution to the larger metapopulation.

Short-term harmful effects of unionised ammonia on natural populations of Moina micrura and Brachionus rubens in a deep waste treatment pond.

PubMed

Arauzo, M; Valladolid, M

2003-06-01

Populations of Moina micrura and Brachionus rubens in a deep waste treatment pond were exposed to the natural short-term fluctuations of unionised ammonia (90-min intervals of monitoring) that occur in the course of a day during a summer algal bloom. Under natural conditions, three replicate experiments were conducted in which water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, total ammonia, unionised ammonia, phytoplankton biomass and zooplankton (number of living and dead organisms, mortality rate and instant mortality) were studied. The time-course of unionised ammonia concentration was consistent with those shown by temperature, pH, phytoplankton biomass, dissolved oxygen, Moina micrura mortality and Brachionus rubens mortality. On the other hand, temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen never exceeded the tolerance ranges described for Moina and Brachionus, which led us to attribute the cause of zooplankton mortality to unionised ammonia toxicity. Mortality rates of 63%, 27% and 34% were recorded for Moina in each replicate experiment. Brachionus was less affected, with mortalities of 7.3%, 6.2% and 6.0%. These results confirm previous field observations (Water Res. 34(14) (2000) 3666; Water Res. 37(5) (2003) 1048) that attributed a reduction in zooplankton biomass during certain periods of summer (algal blooms) to a harmful side-effect of an excessive increase in phytoplankton biomass: high photosynthetic activity during these periods of proliferation of algae gives rise to an increased pH (>/=8) and, subsequently, leads to production of unionised ammonia (toxic for aquatic organisms) from its ionised fraction.

A Needs Assessment of Health Issues Related to Maternal Mortality Rates in Afghanistan: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Naim, Ali; Feldman, Robert; Sawyer, Robin

2015-01-01

Maternal death rates in Afghanistan were among the highest in the world during the reign of the Taliban. Although these figures have improved, current rates are still alarming. The aim of this pilot study was to develop a needs assessment of the major health issues related to the high maternal mortality rates in Afghanistan. In-depth interviews were conducted with managerial midwives, clinical midwives, and mothers. Results of the interviews indicate that the improvement in the maternal mortality rate may be attributed to the increase in the involvement of midwives in the birthing process. However, barriers to decreasing maternal mortality still exist. These include transportation, access to care, and sociocultural factors such as the influence of the husband and mother-in-law in preventing access to midwives. Therefore, any programs to decrease maternal mortality need to address infrastructure issues (making health care more accessible) and sociocultural factors (including husbands and mother-in-laws in maternal health education). However, it should be noted that these findings are based on a small pilot study to help develop a larger scale need assessment. © The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Growth and survival of Mountain Plovers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian J.; Knopf, Fritz L.

1993-01-01

Growth and survival rates of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus) were monitored using radiotelemetry from hatching until birds left the breeding grounds on the Pawnee National Grassland, Weld County, Colorado. Chick weights increased logarithmically (r) = 0.961) and tarsus length linearly (r = 0.948) with age. Using the average fledgling weight of 69.8 g and an age/weight regression we predicted that the average age at fledging was 36 d. Fourteen Mountain Plover nests each had three effs; an average of 2.6 eggs hatched in seven nests, whereas remaining nests were lost to predation, storms, or trampling by a cow. Twenty-four adult Mountain Plovers were monitored for 275 telemetry days with no mortalities. Twenty flightless chicks had a calculated daily survival rate of 0.979 for 233 telemetry-days. Mortalities of flightless chicks were due to predation or unknown causes. The daily survival rate predicted that 1.2 of the 2.6 chicks hatched per nest lived to fly. Eight fledged chicks were monitored for 74 telemetry-days, with a daily survival rate of 0.974. Mortalities of fledglings were all attributed to predation. The combined survival rates predicted that 0.7 or the 2.6 hatched chicks lived to leave the nesting area. Survival rates of flightless chicks were similar to those reported 20 yr ago, implying that recent declines in Mountain Plover numbers on the continent are not attributable to either longer-term declines in nesting productivity or phenomena occurring at non-breeding locales.

Inequalities and impact of socioeconomic-cultural factors in suicide rates across Italy.

PubMed

Pompili, Maurizio; Innamorati, Marco; Vichi, Monica; Masocco, Maria; Vanacore, Nicola; Lester, David; Serafini, Gianluca; Tatarelli, Roberto; De Leo, Diego; Girardi, Paolo

2011-01-01

Suicide is a major cause of premature death in Italy and occurs at different rates in the various regions. The aim of the present study was to provide a comprehensive overview of suicide in the Italian population aged 15 years and older for the years 1980-2006. Mortality data were extracted from the Italian Mortality Database. Mortality rates for suicide in Italy reached a peak in 1985 and declined thereafter. The different patterns observed by age and sex indicated that the decrease in the suicide rate in Italy was initially the result of declining rates in those aged 45+ while, from 1997 on, the decrease was attributable principally to a reduction in suicide rates among the younger age groups. It was found that socioeconomic factors underlined major differences in the suicide rate across regions. The present study confirmed that suicide is a multifaceted phenomenon that may be determined by an array of factors. Suicide prevention should, therefore, be targeted to identifiable high-risk sociocultural groups in each country.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: the urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out.

PubMed

Kimani-Murage, E W; Fotso, J C; Egondi, T; Abuya, B; Elungata, P; Ziraba, A K; Kabiru, C W; Madise, N

2014-09-01

We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban-rural and intra-urban differentials. We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban-rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: The urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out

PubMed Central

Kimani-Murage, E.W.; Fotso, J.C.; Egondi, T.; Abuya, B.; Elungata, P.; Ziraba, A.K.; Kabiru, C.W.; Madise, N.

2014-01-01

Background We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban–rural and intra-urban differentials. Methods We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Results Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban–rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. Conclusions The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. PMID:25024120

Mortality among subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma at two respiratory disease clinics in Ontario

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, Murray M; Chapman, Kenneth R; McIvor, R Andrew; Sears, Malcolm R

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common; however, mortality rates among individuals with these diseases are not well studied in North America. OBJECTIVE: To investigate mortality rates and risk factors for premature death among subjects with COPD. METHODS: Subjects were identified from the lung function testing databases of two academic respiratory disease clinics in Hamilton and Toronto, Ontario. Mortality was ascertained by linkage to the Ontario mortality registry between 1992 and 2002, inclusive. Standardized mortality ratios were computed. Poisson regression of standardized mortality ratios and proportional hazards regression were performed to examine the multivariate effect of risk factors on the standardized mortality ratios and mortality hazards. RESULTS: Compared with the Ontario population, all-cause mortality was approximately doubled among subjects with COPD, but was lower than expected among subjects with asthma. The risk of mortality in patients with COPD was related to cigarette smoking, to the presence of comorbid conditons of ischemic heart disease and diabetes, and to Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease severity scores. Individuals living closer to traffic sources showed an elevated risk of death compared with those who lived further away from traffic sources. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates among subjects diagnosed with COPD were substantially elevated. There were several deaths attributed to asthma among subjects in the present study; however, overall, patients with asthma demonstrated lower mortality rates than the general population. Subjects with COPD need to be managed with attention devoted to both their respiratory disorders and related comorbidities. PMID:22187688

Socioeconomic differences in alcohol-attributable mortality compared with all-cause mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Probst, Charlotte; Roerecke, Michael; Behrendt, Silke; Rehm, Jürgen

2014-08-01

Factors underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are not well understood. This study contributes to our understanding of potential pathways to result in socioeconomic inequalities, by examining alcohol consumption as one potential explanation via comparing socioeconomic inequalities in alcohol-attributable mortality and all-cause mortality. Web of Science, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and ETOH were searched systematically from their inception to second week of February 2013 for articles reporting alcohol-attributable mortality by socioeconomic status, operationalized by using information on education, occupation, employment status or income. The sex-specific ratios of relative risks (RRRs) of alcohol-attributable mortality to all-cause mortality were pooled for different operationalizations of socioeconomic status using inverse-variance weighted random effects models. These RRRs were then combined to a single estimate. We identified 15 unique papers suitable for a meta-analysis; capturing about 133 million people, 3 741 334 deaths from all causes and 167 652 alcohol-attributable deaths. The overall RRRs amounted to RRR = 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43 to 2.22) and RRR = 1.66 (95% CI 1.20 to 2.31), for women and men, respectively. In other words: lower socioeconomic status leads to 1.5-2-fold higher mortality for alcohol-attributable causes compared with all causes. Alcohol was identified as a factor underlying higher mortality risks in more disadvantaged populations. All alcohol-attributable mortality is in principle avoidable, and future alcohol policies must take into consideration any differential effect on socioeconomic groups. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

The Health Impact of Resolving Racial Disparities: An Analysis of US Mortality Data

PubMed Central

Woolf, Steven H.; Johnson, Robert E.; Fryer, George E.; Rust, George; Satcher, David

2004-01-01

The US health system spends far more on the “technology” of care (e.g., drugs, devices) than on achieving equity in its delivery. For 1991 to 2000, we contrasted the number of lives saved by medical advances with the number of deaths attributable to excess mortality among African Americans. Medical advances averted 176 633 deaths, but equalizing the mortality rates of Whites and African Americans would have averted 886202 deaths. Achieving equity may do more for health than perfecting the technology of care. PMID:15569956

Unintentional falls mortality among elderly in the United States: time for action.

PubMed

Alamgir, Hasanat; Muazzam, Sana; Nasrullah, Muazzam

2012-12-01

Fall injury is a leading cause of death and disability among older adults. The objective of this study is to identify the groups among the ≥ 65 population by age, gender, race, ethnicity and state of residence which are most vulnerable to unintentional fall mortality and report the trends in falls mortality in the United States. Using mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the age specific and age-adjusted fall mortality rates were calculated by gender, age, race, ethnicity and state of residence for a five year period (2003-2007). Annual percentage changes in rates were calculated and linear regression using natural logged rates were used for time-trend analysis. There were 79,386 fall fatalities (rate: 40.77 per 100,000 population) reported. The annual mortality rate varied from a low of 36.76 in 2003 to a high of 44.89 in 2007 with a 22.14% increase (p=0.002 for time-related trend) during 2003-2007. The rates among whites were higher compared to blacks (43.04 vs. 18.83; p=0.01). While comparing falls mortality rate for race by gender, white males had the highest mortality rate followed by white females. The rate was as low as 20.19 for Alabama and as high as 97.63 for New Mexico. The relative attribution of falls mortality among all unintentional injury mortality increased with age (23.19% for 65-69 years and 53.53% for 85+ years), and the proportion of falls mortality was significantly higher among females than males (46.9% vs. 40.7%: p<0.001) and among whites than blacks (45.3% vs. 24.7%: p<0.001). The burden of fall related mortality is very high and the rate is on the rise; however, the burden and trend varied by gender, age, race and ethnicity and also by state of residence. Strategies will be more effective in reducing fall-related mortality when high risk population groups are targeted. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Panel data analysis of health status in Northeast Brazil].

PubMed

Sousa, Tanara Rosângela Vieira; Leite Filho, Paulo Amilton Maia

2008-10-01

To assess health status determinants in Brazil's Northeast states. Study carried out based on panel data analysis of aggregated information for municipalities. Data was obtained from the United Nations Development Program Atlas of Human Development and Brazilian National Treasury Department for the years 1991 and 2000. Health status indicator was infant mortality rate and health determinants were the following variables: per capita health and sanitation expenditure; number of physicians per inhabitant; access to drinking water; fertility rate; illiteracy rate; percentage of adolescent mothers; per capita income; and Gini coefficient. Infant mortality rates in Northeast Brazil were reduced by 31.8%, during the period studied, slightly above the national average. However, in some states, such as Rio Grande do Norte, Bahia, Ceará and Alagoas, the reduction was more significant. This can be attributed to improvement in some indicators that are main determinants of infant mortality rate reduction: greater access to education, reduction of fertility rates, increased income, and access to drinking water. Brazilian states that showed greater gains in access to drinking water, education, income and reduction of fertility rates were also the ones that achieved major reductions in mortality of children under a year of age.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004.

PubMed

Souza, D C C; Santo, A H; Sato, E I

2010-01-01

To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6+/-15.6 years vs. 33.9+/-14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. SLE patients living in the state of São Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Association Between Infant Mortality Attributable to Birth Defects and Payment Source for Delivery - United States, 2011-2013.

PubMed

Almli, Lynn M; Alter, Caroline C; Russell, Rebecca B; Tinker, Sarah C; Howards, Penelope P; Cragan, Janet; Petersen, Emily; Carrino, Gerard E; Reefhuis, Jennita

2017-01-27

Birth defects are a leading cause of infant mortality in the United States (1), accounting for approximately 20% of infant deaths. The rate of infant mortality attributable to birth defects (IMBD) in the United States in 2014 was 11.9 per 10,000 live births (1). Rates of IMBD differ by race/ethnicity (2), age group at death (2), and gestational age at birth (3). Insurance type is associated with survival among infants with congenital heart defects (CHD) (4). In 2003, a checkbox indicating principal payment source for delivery was added to the U.S. standard birth certificate (5). To assess IMBD by payment source for delivery, CDC analyzed linked U.S. birth/infant death data for 2011-2013 from states that adopted the 2003 revision of the birth certificate. The results indicated that IMBD rates for preterm (<37 weeks of gestation) and term (≥37 weeks) infants whose deliveries were covered by Medicaid were higher during the neonatal (<28 days) and postneonatal (≥28 days to <1 year) periods compared with infants whose deliveries were covered by private insurance. Similar differences in postneonatal mortality were observed for the three most common categories of birth defects listed as a cause of death: central nervous system (CNS) defects, CHD, and chromosomal abnormalities. Strategies to ensure quality of care and access to care might reduce the difference between deliveries covered by Medicaid and those covered by private insurance.

Usefulness of cancer-free survival in estimating the lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence from radiation exposure.

PubMed

Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dal Nim; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Won Jin; Park, Sunhoo

2018-05-11

Risk projection models estimating the lifetime cancer risk from radiation exposure are generally based on exposure dose, age at exposure, attained age, gender and study-population-specific factors such as baseline cancer risks and survival rates. Because such models have mostly been based on the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, the baseline risks and survival rates in the target population should be considered when applying the cancer risk. The survival function used in the risk projection models that are commonly used in the radiological protection field to estimate the cancer risk from medical or occupational exposure is based on all-cause mortality. Thus, it may not be accurate for estimating the lifetime risk of high-incidence but not life-threatening cancer with a long-term survival rate. Herein, we present the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) estimates of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, thyroid cancer, and leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia in South Korea for lifetime exposure to 1 mGy per year using the cancer-free survival function, as recently applied in the Fukushima health risk assessment by the World Health Organization. Compared with the estimates of LARs using an overall survival function solely based on all-cause mortality, the LARs of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer evaluated using the cancer-free survival function, decreased by approximately 13% and 1% for men and 9% and 5% for women, respectively. The LAR of leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia barely changed for either gender owing to the small absolute difference between its incidence and mortality. Given that many cancers have a high curative rate and low mortality rate, using a survival function solely based on all-cause mortality may cause an overestimation of the lifetime risk of cancer incidence. The lifetime fractional risk was robust against the choice of survival function.

Mortality rates among 15- to 44-year-old women in Boston: looking beyond reproductive status.

PubMed

Katz, M E; Holmes, M D; Power, K L; Wise, P H

1995-08-01

Mortality rates were examined for Boston women, aged 15 to 44, from 1980 to 1989. There were 1234 deaths, with a rate of 787.8/100,000 for the decade. Leading causes were cancer, accidents, heart disease, homicide, suicide, and chronic liver disease. After age adjustment, African-American women in this age group were 2.3 times more likely to die than White women. Deaths at least partly attributable to smoking and alcohol amounted to 29.8% and 31.9%, respectively. Mortality was found to be related more directly to the general well-being of young women than to their reproductive status, and many deaths were preventable. African-American/White disparities were most likely linked to social factors. These findings suggest that health needs of reproductive-age women transcend reproductive health and require comprehensive interventions.

Not just smoking and high-tech medicine: socioeconomic inequities in US mortality rates, overall and by race/ethnicity, 1960–2006

PubMed Central

Krieger, Nancy; Chen, Jarvis T.; Kosheleva, Anna; Waterman, Pamela D.

2011-01-01

Recent research on the post-1980 widening of US socioeconomic mortality inequalities has emphasized the contribution of smoking and high-tech medicine, with some studies treating the growing inequalities as effectively inevitable. No studies, however, have analyzed long-term trends in US mortality rates and inequities unrelated to smoking or due to lack of basic medical care, even as a handful have shown that US socioeconomic inequalities in overall mortality shrank between the mid-1960s and 1980. We accordingly analyzed US mortality data for 1960–2006, stratified by county income quintile and race/ethnicity, for mortality unrelated to smoking and preventable by 1960s standards of medical care. Key findings were that relative and absolute socioeconomic inequalities in US mortality unrelated to smoking and preventable by 1960s medical care standards shrank between the 1960s and 1980 and then increased and stagnated, with absolute rates on par with several leading causes of death, and with the burden worst for US populations of color. None of these findings can be attributed to trends in smoking-related deaths and access to high-tech medicine, and they also demonstrate that socioeconomic inequities in mortality can shrink and need not inevitably rise. PMID:22611656

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland

PubMed Central

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L.; Egger, Matthias

2016-01-01

Background Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. Methods We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Results Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4–1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7–18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8–2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1–1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. Conclusions We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries. PMID:27706149

Analysing Recent Socioeconomic Trends in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England, 2000–2007: A Population Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Bajekal, Madhavi; Scholes, Shaun; Love, Hande; Hawkins, Nathaniel; O'Flaherty, Martin; Raine, Rosalind; Capewell, Simon

2012-01-01

Background Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups. Methods and Findings A widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%–107%) of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%–47%) to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%–61%) in the most deprived to 29% (16%–42%) in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%–40%); more so in deprived (37%) than in affluent (25%) areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%), smoking (3%), and physical activity (2%). Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (−9%; −17% to −3%), particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%–70%) of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%), chronic angina treatment (13%), and secondary prevention (11%) made the largest medical contributions. Conclusions The model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However, opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22719232

Psychosocial determinants of premature cardiovascular mortality differences within Hungary.

PubMed

Kopp, Maria; Skrabski, Arpád; Szántó, Zsuzsa; Siegrist, Johannes

2006-09-01

The life expectancy gap between Central-Eastern European (CEE) countries, including Hungary, and Western Europe (WE) is mainly attributable to excess cardiovascular (CV) mortality in midlife. This study explores the contribution of socioeconomic, work related, psychosocial, and behavioural variables to explaining variations of middle aged male and female CV mortality across 150 sub-regions in Hungary. Cross sectional, ecological analyses. 150 sub-regions of Hungary. 12 643 people were interviewed in Hungarostudy 2002 survey, representing the Hungarian population according to sex, age, and sub-regions. Independent variables were income, education, control in work, job insecurity, weekend working hours, social support, depression, hostility, anomie, smoking, body mass index, and alcohol misuse. Gender specific standardised premature (45-64 years) total CV, ischaemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular mortality rates in 150 sub-regions of Hungary. Low education and income were the most important determinants of mid-aged CV mortality differences across sub-regions. High weekend workload, low social support at work, and low control at work account for a large part of variation in male premature CV mortality rates, whereas job insecurity, high weekend workload, and low control at work contribute most noticeably to variations in premature CV mortality rates among women. Low social support from friends, depression, anomie, hostility, alcohol misuse and cigarette smoking can also explain a considerable part of variations of premature CV mortality differences. Variations in middle aged CV mortality rates in a rapidly changing society in CEE are largely accounted for by distinct unfavourable working and other psychosocial stress conditions.

Late Mortality Among 5-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer: A Summary From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Gregory T.; Liu, Qi; Yasui, Yutaka; Neglia, Joseph P.; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L.; Mertens, Ann C.

2009-01-01

The Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) has assembled the largest cohort to date for assessment of late mortality. Vital status and cause of death of all patients eligible for participation in CCSS was determined using the National Death Index and death certificates to characterize the mortality experience of 20,483 survivors, representing 337,334 person-years of observation. A total of 2,821 deaths have occurred as of December 31, 2002. The overall cumulative mortality is 18.1% (95% CI, 17.3 to 18.9) at 30 years from diagnosis. With time, while all-cause mortality rates have been stable, the pattern of late death is changing. Mortality attributable to recurrence or progression of primary disease is decreasing, with increases in rates of mortality attributable to subsequent neoplasms (standardized mortality ratios [SMR], 15.2; 95% CI, 13.9 to 16.6), cardiac death (SMR, 7.0; 95% CI, 5.9 to 8.2), and pulmonary death (SMR, 8.8; 95% CI, 6.8 to 11.2) largely due to treatment-related causes. In addition, the CCSS has identified specific treatment-related risk factors for late mortality. Radiotherapy (relative risk [RR], 2.9; 95% CI, 2.1 to 4.2), alkylating agents (RR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6 to 3.0), and epipodophyllotoxins (RR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2 to 4.5) increase the risk of death due to subsequent malignancy. Cardiac radiation exposure (RR, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.0 to 5.5) and high dose of anthracycline exposure (RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.6 to 5.8) are associated with late cardiac death. By continued longitudinal follow-up of the cohort and expansion of the cohort to include patients diagnosed between 1987 and 1999, the CCSS will remain a primary resource for assessment of late mortality of survivors of childhood cancers. PMID:19332714

Survival rates, mortality causes, and habitats of Pennsylvania white-tailed deer fawns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vreeland, J.K.; Diefenbach, D.R.; Wallingford, B.D.

2004-01-01

Estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns are important to population management. We quantified cause-specific mortality, survival rates, and habitat characteristics related to fawn survival in a forested landscape and an agricultural landscape in central Pennsylvania. We captured and radiocollared neonatal (0.05). Predation accounted for 46.2% (95% Cl = 37.6-56.7%) of 106 mortalities through 34 weeks. We attributed 32.7% (95% Cl = 21.9-48.6%) and 36.7% (95% Cl = 25.5-52.9%) of 49 predation events to black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans], respectively. Natural causes, excluding predation, accounted for 27.4% (95% Cl = 20.1-37.3) of mortalities. Fawn survival in Pennsylvania was comparable to reported survival in forested and agricultural regions in northern portions of the white-tailed deer range. We have no evidence to suggest that the fawn survival rates we observed were preventing population growth. Because white-tailed deer are habitat generalists, home-range-scale habitat characteristics may be unrelated to fawn survival; therefore, future studies should consider landscape-related characteristics on fawn survival.

An Investigation on Attributes of Ambient Temperature and Diurnal Temperature Range on Mortality in Five East-Asian Countries.

PubMed

Lee, Whan-Hee; Lim, Youn-Hee; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Jang, Hye-Min; Kim, Ho

2017-08-31

Interest in the health effects of extremely low/high ambient temperature and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) on mortality as representative indices of temperature variability is growing. Although numerous studies have reported on these indices independently, few studies have provided the attributes of ambient temperature and DTR related to mortality, concurrently. In this study, we aimed to investigate and compare the mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature and DTR. The study included data of 63 cities in five East-Asian countries/regions during various periods between 1972 and 2013. The attributable risk of non-accidental death to ambient temperature was 9.36% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.98-9.69%) and to DTR was 0.59% (95% CI: 0.53-0.65%). The attributable cardiovascular mortality risks to ambient temperature (15.63%) and DTR (0.75%) are higher than the risks to non-accidental/respiratory-related mortality. We verified that ambient temperature plays a larger role in temperature-associated mortality, and cardiovascular mortality is susceptible to ambient temperature and DTR.

Undernutrition as an underlying cause of child deaths associated with diarrhea, pneumonia, malaria, and measles.

PubMed

Caulfield, Laura E; de Onis, Mercedes; Blössner, Monika; Black, Robert E

2004-07-01

Previous analyses derived the relative risk (RR) of dying as a result of low weight-for-age and calculated the proportion of child deaths worldwide attributable to underweight. The objectives were to examine whether the risk of dying because of underweight varies by cause of death and to estimate the fraction of deaths by cause attributable to underweight. Data were obtained from investigators of 10 cohort studies with both weight-for-age category (<-3 SDs, -3 to <-2 SDs, -2 to <-1 SD, and >-1 SD) and cause of death information. All 10 studies contributed information on weight-for-age and risk of diarrhea, pneumonia, and all-cause mortality; however, only 6 studies contributed information on deaths because of measles, and only 3 studies contributed information on deaths because of malaria or fever. With use of weighted random effects models, we related the log mortality rate by cause and anthropometric status in each study to derive cause-specific RRs of dying because of undernutrition. Prevalences of each weight-for-age category were obtained from analyses of 310 national nutrition surveys. With use of the RR and prevalence information, we then calculated the fraction of deaths by cause attributable to undernutrition. The RR of mortality because of low weight-for-age was elevated for each cause of death and for all-cause mortality. Overall, 52.5% of all deaths in young children were attributable to undernutrition, varying from 44.8% for deaths because of measles to 60.7% for deaths because of diarrhea. A significant proportion of deaths in young children worldwide is attributable to low weight-for-age, and efforts to reduce malnutrition should be a policy priority.

Short-Term Effect of Coarse Particles on Daily Mortality Rate in A Tropical City, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Shang-Shyue; Weng, Yi-Hao; Chiu, Ya-Wen; Yang, Chun-Yuh

2015-01-01

Many studies examined the short-term effects of air pollution on frequency of daily mortality over the past two decades. However, information on the relationship between exposure to levels of coarse particles (PM(2.5-10)) and daily mortality rate is relatively sparse due to limited availability of monitoring data and findings are inconsistent. This study was undertaken to determine whether an association exists between PM(2.5-10) levels and rate of daily mortality in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, a large industrial city with a tropical climate. Daily mortality rate, air pollution parameters, and weather data for Kaohsiung were obtained for the period 2006-2008. The relative risk (RR) of daily mortality occurrence was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, controlling for (1) weather variables, (2) day of the week, (3) seasonality, and (4) long-term time trends. For the single-pollutant model without adjustment for other pollutants, PM(2.5-10) exposure levels showed significant correlation with total mortality rate both on warm and cool days, with an interquartile range increase associated with a 14% (95% CI = 5-23%) and 12% (95% CI = 5-20%) rise in number of total deaths, respectively. In two-pollutant models, PM(2.5-10) exerted significant influence on total mortality frequency after inclusion of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) on warm days. On cool days, PM(2.5-10) induced significant elevation in total mortality rate when SO(2) or ozone (O(3)) was added in the regression model. There was no apparent indication of an association between PM(2.5-10) exposure and deaths attributed to respiratory and circulatory diseases. This study provided evidence of correlation between short-term exposure to PM(2.5-10) and increased risk of death for all causes.

Air pollution attributable postneonatal infant mortality in U.S. metropolitan areas: a risk assessment study

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Reinhard; Romieu, Isabelle; Medina, Sylvia; Schwartz, Joel; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino

2004-01-01

Background The impact of outdoor air pollution on infant mortality has not been quantified. Methods Based on exposure-response functions from a U.S. cohort study, we assessed the attributable risk of postneonatal infant mortality in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas related to particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10) as a surrogate of total air pollution. Results The estimated proportion of all cause mortality, sudden infant death syndrome (normal birth weight infants only) and respiratory disease mortality (normal birth weight) attributable to PM10 above a chosen reference value of 12.0 μg/m3 PM10 was 6% (95% confidence interval 3–11%), 16% (95% confidence interval 9–23%) and 24% (95% confidence interval 7–44%), respectively. The expected number of infant deaths per year in the selected areas was 106 (95% confidence interval 53–185), 79 (95% confidence interval 46–111) and 15 (95% confidence interval 5–27), respectively. Approximately 75% of cases were from areas where the current levels are at or below the new U.S. PM2.5 standard of 15 μg/m3 (equivalent to 25 μg/m3 PM10). In a country where infant mortality rates and air pollution levels are relatively low, ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter contributes to a substantial fraction of infant death, especially for those due to sudden infant death syndrome and respiratory disease. Even if all counties would comply to the new PM2.5 standard, the majority of the estimated burden would remain. Conclusion Given the inherent limitations of risk assessments, further studies are needed to support and quantify the relationship between infant mortality and air pollution. PMID:15128459

State downsizing as a determinant of infant mortality and achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4.

PubMed

Palma-Solís, Marco Antonio; Alvarez-Dardet Díaz, Carlos; Franco-Giraldo, Alvaro; Hernández-Aguado, Ildefonso; Pérez-Hoyos, Santiago

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the worldwide effect of state downsizing policies on achievement of U.N. Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) on infant mortality rates. In an ecological retrospective cohort study of 161 countries, from 1978 to 2002, the authors analyzed changes in government consumption (GC) as determining exposure to achievement of MDG4. Descriptive methods and a multiple logistic regression were applied to adjust for changes in gross domestic product, level of democracy, and income inequality. Excess infant mortality in the exposed countries, attributable to reductions in GC, was estimated. Fifty countries were found to have reduced GC, and 111 had increased GC. The gap in infant mortality rate between these groups of countries doubled in the study period. Non-achievement of MDG4 was associated with reductions in GC and increases in income inequality. The excess infant mortality attributable to GC reductions in the exposed countries from 1990 to 2002 was 4,473,348 deaths. The probability of achieving MDG4 seems to be seriously compromised for many countries because of reduced public sector expenditure during the last 25 years of the 20th century, in response to World Bank/International Monetary Fund Washington Consensus policies. This seeming contradiction between the goals of different U.N. branches may be undermining achievement of MDG4 and should be taken into account when developing future global governance policy.

Estimating cause of adult (15+ years) death using InterVA-4 in a rural district of southern Ghana.

PubMed

Awini, Elizabeth; Sarpong, Doris; Adjei, Alexander; Manyeh, Alfred Kwesi; Amu, Alberta; Akweongo, Patricia; Adongo, Philip; Kukula, Vida; Odonkor, Gabriel; Narh, Solomon; Gyapong, Margaret

2014-01-01

Data needed to estimate causes of death and the pattern of these deaths are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. Such data are very important for targeting, monitoring, and evaluating health interventions. To estimate the mortality rate and determine causes of death among adults (aged 15 years and older) in a rural district of southern Ghana, using the InterVA-4 model. Data used were generated from verbal autopsies conducted for registered adult members of the Dodowa Health and Demographic Surveillance System who died between 2006 and 2010. The InterVA-4 model was used to assign the cause of death. Overall, the mortality rate for the period under review was 7.5/1,000 person-years (py) for the general population and 10.4/1,000 py for those aged 15 and older. The leading cause of death was communicable diseases (CDs), with a malaria-specific mortality rate of 1.06/1,000 py. Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB)-specific mortality rate was the next highest (1.01/1,000 py). HIV/AIDS attributed deaths were lower among males than females. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed to 28.3% of the deaths with cause-specific mortality rate of 2.93/1,000 py. Stroke topped the list with cause-specific mortality rate of 0.69/1,000 py. As expected, young males (15-49 years) contributed to more road traffic accident (RTA) deaths; they had a lower RTA cause-specific mortality rate than older males (50-64 years). Data indicate that CDs (e.g. malaria and TB) remain the major cause of death with NCDs (e.g. stroke) following closely behind. Verbal autopsy data can provide the causes of mortality in poorly resourced settings where access to timely and accurate data is scarce.

Mortality among African American women with sarcoidosis: Data from the Black Women’s Health Study

PubMed Central

Tukey, Melissa H.; Berman, Jeffrey S.; Boggs, Deborah A; White, Laura F.; Rosenberg, Lynn; Cozier, Yvette C.

2013-01-01

Rationale Sarcoidosis is a chronic systemic granulomatous disease of unknown etiology that disproportionately affects black females. Few studies have specifically addressed causes of death in this population. Objectives To assess rates and causes of death among women with sarcoidosis in a prospective cohort study of U.S. black women. Methods The Black Women’s Health Study is a follow-up study of 59,000 U.S. black women aged 21–69 (median age 38) at entry in 1995. Data on demographic and lifestyle factors and medical conditions, including sarcoidosis, were obtained through biennial questionnaires. Deaths and causes of death from 1995 through 2009 among study subjects were identified from National Death Index data. Measurements We assessed mortality rates among women with and without a history of sarcoidosis. Poisson regression models were used to estimate age-adjusted mortality rates. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for mortality and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Main Results A total of 121 deaths occurred among 1,192 women with a history of sarcoidosis and 2813 deaths among women without the diagnosis. Mortality was greater at every age among women with sarcoidosis and the overall multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio was 2.44 (95% CI 2.03–2.93, p<0.0001). Of the deaths among women with sarcoidosis, 24.7% were directly attributable to sarcoidosis. Conclusions In the Black Women’s Health Study, women with sarcoidosis were more than twice as likely to die as women without the disease, with many of the deaths directly attributable to sarcoidosis. Sarcoidosis is an important cause of premature death among black women with the disease. PMID:24071884

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study

PubMed Central

Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F.; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M.; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L.; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M.; Ascaso, Juan F.; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

2017-01-01

Introduction The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. Methods This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008–2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. Results 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. Conclusions In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers. PMID:29045483

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

PubMed

Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

2017-01-01

The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

Geographical variation in life expectancy at birth in England and Wales is largely explained by deprivation.

PubMed

Woods, Laura M; Rachet, Bernard; Riga, Michael; Stone, Noell; Shah, Anjali; Coleman, Michel P

2005-02-01

To describe the population mortality profile of England and Wales by deprivation and in each government office region (GOR) during 1998, and to quantify the influence of geography and deprivation in determining life expectancy. Construction of life tables describing age specific mortality rates and life expectancy at birth from death registrations and estimated population counts. Life tables were created for (a) quintiles of income deprivation based on the income domain score of the index of multiple deprivation 2000, (b) each GOR and Wales, and (c) every combination of deprivation and geography. England and Wales.PATIENTS/ PARTICIPANTS: Residents of England and Wales, 1998. Life expectancy at birth varies with deprivation quintile and is highest in the most affluent groups. The differences are mainly attributable to differences in mortality rates under 75 years of age. Regional life expectancies display a clear north-south gradient. Linear regression analysis shows that deprivation explains most of the geographical variation in life expectancy. Geographical patterns of life expectancy identified within these data for England and Wales in 1998 are mainly attributable to variations in deprivation status as defined by the IMD 2000 income domain score.

Premature mortality of epilepsy in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review from the Mortality Task Force of the International League Against Epilepsy.

PubMed

Levira, Francis; Thurman, David J; Sander, Josemir W; Hauser, W Allen; Hesdorffer, Dale C; Masanja, Honorati; Odermatt, Peter; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Newton, Charles R

2017-01-01

To determine the magnitude of risk factors and causes of premature mortality associated with epilepsy in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We conducted a systematic search of the literature reporting mortality and epilepsy in the World Bank-defined LMICs. We assessed the quality of the studies based on representativeness; ascertainment of cases, diagnosis, and mortality; and extracted data on standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and mortality rates in people with epilepsy. We examined risk factors and causes of death. The annual mortality rate was estimated at 19.8 (range 9.7-45.1) deaths per 1,000 people with epilepsy with a weighted median SMR of 2.6 (range 1.3-7.2) among higher-quality population-based studies. Clinical cohort studies yielded 7.1 (range 1.6-25.1) deaths per 1,000 people. The weighted median SMRs were 5.0 in male and 4.5 in female patients; relatively higher SMRs within studies were measured in children and adolescents, those with symptomatic epilepsies, and those reporting less adherence to treatment. The main causes of death in people with epilepsy living in LMICs include those directly attributable to epilepsy, which yield a mean proportional mortality ratio (PMR) of 27.3% (range 5-75.5%) derived from population-based studies. These direct causes comprise status epilepticus, with reported PMRs ranging from 5 to 56.6%, and sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), with reported PMRs ranging from 1 to 18.9%. Important causes of mortality indirectly related to epilepsy include drowning, head injury, and burns. Epilepsy in LMICs has a significantly greater premature mortality, as in high-income countries, but in LMICs the excess mortality is more likely to be associated with causes attributable to lack of access to medical facilities such as status epilepticus, and preventable causes such as drowning, head injuries, and burns. This excess premature mortality could be substantially reduced with education about the risk of death and improved access to treatments, including AEDs. © 2016 The Authors. Epilepsia published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International League Against Epilepsy.

Smoking-attributable burden of lung cancer in the Philippines.

PubMed

Bilano, Ver Luanni Feliciano; Borja, Maridel P; Cruz, Eduardo L; Tan, Alvin G; Mortera, Lalaine L; Reganit, Paul Ferdinand M

2015-05-01

In the Philippines, smoking is highly prevalent and tobacco control policies fail to fully implement the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provisions. To aid in policy change, intervention implementation, monitoring and evaluation, this study aimed to provide the first internally consistent and latest Philippine estimates of the following: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost due to lung cancer; population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of smoking; and smoking-attributable lung cancer DALYs. This study applied the Global Burden of Disease and Comparative Risk Assessment frameworks to secondary data, supplemented by expert opinion. A comprehensive internally consistent assessment of disease epidemiology was conducted using DISMOD II and disease impact was quantified as DALYs. PAFs were calculated using the smoking impact ratio and Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses were conducted. For 2008, lung cancer incidence and mortality estimates were 10 871 cases and 9871 deaths respectively. Lung cancer accounted for an estimated 267 787 DALYs lost, 99% of which were due to years of life lost. Overall, the PAF of smoking was 65% and a total of 173 103 DALYs were smoking-attributable. There were increasing trends in incidence, mortality and DALY rates with age. The majority of incidence (72%), mortality (71%) and disease burden (72%) occurred among men, who also had higher PAF estimates. Considerable health gains could be achieved if smoking exposure were reduced in the Philippines. Strong enforcement of measures like increasing taxation to the WHO-endorsed rate, expanding smoke-free environments, and requiring large graphic warnings within a comprehensive tobacco control programme is recommended. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Population-Wide Impact of Non-Hip Non-Vertebral Fractures on Mortality.

PubMed

Tran, Thach; Bliuc, Dana; van Geel, Tineke; Adachi, Jonathan D; Berger, Claudie; van den Bergh, Joop; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet; Goltzman, David; Hanley, David A; Josse, Robert G; Kaiser, Stephanie M; Kovacs, Christopher S; Langsetmo, Lisa; Prior, Jerilynn C; Nguyen, Tuan V; Center, Jacqueline R

2017-09-01

Data on long-term consequences of non-hip non-vertebral (NHNV) fractures, accounting for approximately two-thirds of all fragility fractures, are scanty. Our study aimed to quantify the population-wide impact of NHNV fractures on mortality. The national population-based prospective cohort study (Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study) included 5526 community dwelling women and 2163 men aged 50 years or older followed from July 1995 to September 2013. Population impact number was used to quantify the average number of people for whom one death would be attributable to fracture and case impact number to quantify the number of deaths out of which one would be attributable to a fracture. There were 1370 fragility fractures followed by 296 deaths in women (mortality rate: 3.49; 95% CI, 3.11 to 3.91), and 302 fractures with 92 deaths in men (5.05; 95% CI, 4.12 to 6.20). NHNV fractures accounted for three-quarters of fractures. In women, the population-wide impact of NHNV fractures on mortality was greater than that of hip and vertebral fractures because of the greater number of NHNV fractures. Out of 800 women, one death was estimated to be attributable to a NHNV fracture, compared with one death in 2000 women attributable to hip or vertebral fracture. Similarly, out of 15 deaths in women, one was estimated to be attributable to a NHNV fracture, compared with one in over 40 deaths for hip or vertebral fracture. The impact of forearm fractures (ie, one death in 2400 women and one out of 42 deaths in women attributable to forearm fracture) was similar to that of hip, vertebral, or rib fractures. Similar, albeit not significant, results were noted for men. The study highlights the important contribution of NHNV fractures on mortality because many NHNV fracture types, except for the most distal fractures, have serious adverse consequences that affect a significant proportion of the population. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Reduction of maternal mortality due to preeclampsia in Colombia-an interrupted time-series analysis

PubMed Central

Herrera-Medina, Rodolfo; Herrera-Escobar, Juan Pablo; Nieto-Díaz, Aníbal

2014-01-01

Introduction: Preeclampsia is the most important cause of maternal mortality in developing countries. A comprehensive prenatal care program including bio-psychosocial components was developed and introduced at a national level in Colombia. We report on the trends in maternal mortality rates and their related causes before and after implementation of this program. Methods: General and specific maternal mortality rates were monitored for nine years (1998-2006). An interrupted time-series analysis was performed with monthly data on cases of maternal mortality that compared trends and changes in national mortality rates and the impact of these changes attributable to the introduction of a bio-psychosocial model. Multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate correlations between the interventions. Results: Five years after (2002 - 2006) its introduction the general maternal mortality rate was significantly reduced to 23% (OR=0.77, CI 95% 0.71-0.82).The implementation of BPSM also reduced the incidence of preeclampsia in 22% (OR= 0.78, CI 95% 0.67-0.88), as also the labor complications by hemorrhage in 25% (OR=0.75, CI 95% 0.59-0.90) associated with the implementation of red code. The other causes of maternal mortality did not reveal significant changes. Biomedical, nutritional, psychosocial assessments, and other individual interventions in prenatal care were not correlated to maternal mortality (p= 0.112); however, together as a model we observed a significant association (p= 0.042). Conclusions: General maternal mortality was reduced after the implementation of a comprehensive national prenatal care program. Is important the evaluation of this program in others populations. PMID:24970956

Impact of cancer therapy-related exposures on late mortality in childhood cancer survivors

PubMed Central

Gibson, Todd M.; Robison, Leslie L.

2015-01-01

Survival of children and adolescents diagnosed with cancer has improved dramatically in recent decades, but the substantial burden of late morbidity and mortality (i.e. more than five years after cancer diagnosis) associated with pediatric cancer treatments is increasingly being recognized. Progression or recurrence of the initial cancer is a primary cause of death in the initial post-diagnosis period, but as survivors age there is a dramatic shift in the cause-specific mortality profile. By 15 years post-diagnosis, the death rate attributable to health-related causes other than recurrence or external causes (e.g. accidents, suicide, assault) exceeds that due to primary disease, and by 30 years these causes account for the largest proportion of cumulative mortality. The two most prominent causes of treatment-related mortality in childhood cancer survivors are subsequent malignant neoplasms and cardiovascular problems, incidence of which can be largely attributed to the long-term toxicities of radiation and chemotherapy exposures. These late effects of treatment are likely to increase in importance as survivors continue to age, inspiring continued research to better understand their etiology and to inform early detection or prevention efforts. PMID:25474125

Acute Myocardial Infarction in Women: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

PubMed

Mehta, Laxmi S; Beckie, Theresa M; DeVon, Holli A; Grines, Cindy L; Krumholz, Harlan M; Johnson, Michelle N; Lindley, Kathryn J; Vaccarino, Viola; Wang, Tracy Y; Watson, Karol E; Wenger, Nanette K

2016-03-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in American women. Since 1984, the annual cardiovascular disease mortality rate has remained greater for women than men; however, over the last decade, there have been marked reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality in women. The dramatic decline in mortality rates for women is attributed partly to an increase in awareness, a greater focus on women and cardiovascular disease risk, and the increased application of evidence-based treatments for established coronary heart disease. This is the first scientific statement from the American Heart Association on acute myocardial infarction in women. Sex-specific differences exist in the presentation, pathophysiological mechanisms, and outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction. This statement provides a comprehensive review of the current evidence of the clinical presentation, pathophysiology, treatment, and outcomes of women with acute myocardial infarction. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Attribution of Disturbances Causing Tree Mortality for the Continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Xu, C.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.

2016-12-01

Broad-scale tree mortality has been frequently reported and documented to increase with warming climate and human activities. However, there is so far no general method to quantify the relative contributions of different disturbances on observed broad-scale tree mortality. In this study, we presented a framework to investigate the contribution of various disturbances causing tree mortality for 2000-2014 in the continental US. Our work is based on the high-resolution forest-loss data developed by Hansen et al. (2013). Firstly, fire-driven mortality was determined using the data from Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project. Secondly, a landscape-pattern-recognition approach focusing on the differences of boundary complexity caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbances was developed to attribute harvest-driven mortality patches. Then, a drought threshold was determined through conducting an intensive literature survey for attribution of drought-driven mortality. Our results showed that we can correctly attribute 85% harvest-driven mortality as compared to Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. Based on Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), our literature survey suggests that most mortality events happened at extreme drought (37.7%), then severe (31.4%) and moderate (23.4%) drought. In total, 92.6% of drought-induced mortality events observed during 2000-2014 occurred at drought conditions of moderate or worse with corresponding ESI values ranging from -0.9 -2.49. Therefore, -0.9 will be used as the threshold to attribute drought-driven tree mortality. Overall, these results imply a great potential for using these methods to identify and attribute disturbances driving tree death at broad spatial scales.

HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites.

PubMed

Streatfield, P Kim; Khan, Wasif A; Bhuiya, Abbas; Hanifi, Syed M A; Alam, Nurul; Millogo, Ourohiré; Sié, Ali; Zabré, Pascal; Rossier, Clementine; Soura, Abdramane B; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Kone, Siaka; Ngoran, Eliezer K; Utzinger, Juerg; Abera, Semaw F; Melaku, Yohannes A; Weldearegawi, Berhe; Gomez, Pierre; Jasseh, Momodou; Ansah, Patrick; Azongo, Daniel; Kondayire, Felix; Oduro, Abraham; Amu, Alberta; Gyapong, Margaret; Kwarteng, Odette; Kant, Shashi; Pandav, Chandrakant S; Rai, Sanjay K; Juvekar, Sanjay; Muralidharan, Veena; Wahab, Abdul; Wilopo, Siswanto; Bauni, Evasius; Mochamah, George; Ndila, Carolyne; Williams, Thomas N; Khagayi, Sammy; Laserson, Kayla F; Nyaguara, Amek; Van Eijk, Anna M; Ezeh, Alex; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Wamukoya, Marylene; Chihana, Menard; Crampin, Amelia; Price, Alison; Delaunay, Valérie; Diallo, Aldiouma; Douillot, Laetitia; Sokhna, Cheikh; Gómez-Olivé, F Xavier; Mee, Paul; Tollman, Stephen M; Herbst, Kobus; Mossong, Joël; Chuc, Nguyen T K; Arthur, Samuelina S; Sankoh, Osman A; Byass, Peter

2014-01-01

As the HIV/AIDS pandemic has evolved over recent decades, Africa has been the most affected region, even though a large proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths have not been documented at the individual level. Systematic application of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in defined populations provides an opportunity to assess the mortality burden of the pandemic from individual data. To present standardised comparisons of HIV/AIDS-related mortality at sites across Africa and Asia, including closely related causes of death such as pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and pneumonia. Deaths related to HIV/AIDS were extracted from individual demographic and VA data from 22 INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia. VA data were standardised to WHO 2012 standard causes of death assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Between-site comparisons of mortality rates were standardised using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population. The dataset covered a total of 10,773 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, observed over 12,204,043 person-years. HIV/AIDS-related mortality fractions and mortality rates varied widely across Africa and Asia, with highest burdens in eastern and southern Africa, and lowest burdens in Asia. There was evidence of rapidly declining rates at the sites with the heaviest burdens. HIV/AIDS mortality was also strongly related to PTB mortality. On a country basis, there were strong similarities between HIV/AIDS mortality rates at INDEPTH sites and those derived from modelled estimates. Measuring HIV/AIDS-related mortality continues to be a challenging issue, all the more so as anti-retroviral treatment programmes alleviate mortality risks. The congruence between these results and other estimates adds plausibility to both approaches. These data, covering some of the highest mortality observed during the pandemic, will be an important baseline for understanding the future decline of HIV/AIDS.

Distribution of cancer mortality rates by province in South Africa.

PubMed

Made, Felix; Wilson, Kerry; Jina, Ruxana; Tlotleng, Nonhlanhla; Jack, Samantha; Ntlebi, Vusi; Kootbodien, Tahira

2017-12-01

Cancer mortality rates are expected to increase in developing countries. Cancer mortality rates by province remain largely unreported in South Africa. This study described the 2014 age standardised cancer mortality rates by province in South Africa, to provide insight for strategic interventions and advocacy. 2014 deaths data were retrieved from Statistics South Africa. Deaths from cancer were extracted using 10th International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for cancer (C00-C97). Adjusted 2013 mid-year population estimates were used as a standard population. All rates were calculated per 100 000 individuals. Nearly 38 000 (8%) of the total deaths in South Africa in 2014 were attributed to cancer. Western Cape Province had the highest age standardised cancer mortality rate in South Africa (118, 95% CI: 115-121 deaths per 100 000 individuals), followed by the Northern Cape (113, 95% CI: 107-119 per 100 000 individuals), with the lowest rate in Limpopo Province (47, 95% CI: 45-49 per 100 000). The age standardised cancer mortality rate for men (71, 95% CI: 70-72 per 100 000 individuals) was similar to women (69, 95% CI: 68-70 per 100 000). Lung cancer was a major driver of cancer death in men (13, 95% CI: 12.6-13.4 per 100 000). In women, cervical cancer was the leading cause of cancer death (13, 95% CI: 12.6-13.4 per 100 000 individuals). There is a need to further investigate the factors related to the differences in cancer mortality by province in South Africa. Raising awareness of risk factors and screening for cancer in the population along with improved access and quality of health care are also important. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality among hourly motor vehicle manufacturing workers.

PubMed

Delzell, Elizabeth; Brown, David A; Matthews, Robert

2003-08-01

We evaluated mortality among 198,245 motor vehicle industry workers during the period of 1973 to 1995. Workers' mortality rates were lower than expected overall (40,131 observed/43,859 expected deaths, standardized mortality ratio [SMR] = 92, CI = 91-92) and for all major cause of death categories except cancer (SMR = 100, CI = 98-102). Mortality rates were higher than expected for lung cancer overall (SMR = 110, CI = 107-113) and among employees in transmission/gear manufacturing (SMR = 121, CI = 112-130), casting operations (SMR = 122, CI = 110-135), engine manufacturing (SMR = 111, CI = 101-123), and vehicle assembly (SMR = 111, CI = 105-117); for stomach cancer in engine manufacturing (SMR = 147, CI = 110-192); and for prostate cancer in casting operations (SMR = 128, CI = 102-158). Excesses of lung cancer in transmission, vehicle assembly, and casting operations and of stomach cancer in engine manufacturing have been observed in other investigations. Further information on employees' occupational exposures and personal attributes is required to clarify the interpretation of these results.

The enduring effects of smoking in Latin America.

PubMed

Palloni, Alberto; Novak, Beatriz; Pinto-Aguirre, Guido

2015-06-01

We estimated smoking-attributable mortality, assessed the impact of past smoking on recent mortality, and computed expected future losses in life expectancy caused by past and current smoking behavior in Latin America and the Caribbean. We used a regression-based procedure to estimate smoking-attributable mortality and information for 6 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, and Uruguay) for the years 1980 through 2009 contained in the Latin American Mortality Database (LAMBdA). These countries jointly comprise more than two thirds of the adult population in Latin America and the Caribbean and have the region's highest rates of smoking prevalence. During the last 10 years, the impact of smoking was equivalent to losses in male (aged ≥ 50 years) life expectancy of about 2 to 6 years. These effects are likely to increase, particularly for females, both in the study countries and in those that joined the epidemic at later dates. Unless innovations in the detection and treatment of chronic diseases are introduced soon, continued gains in adult survival in Latin America and the Caribbean region may slow down considerably.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality and prevalence: the associations with smoking and poverty--a BOLD analysis.

PubMed

Burney, Peter; Jithoo, Anamika; Kato, Bernet; Janson, Christer; Mannino, David; Nizankowska-Mogilnicka, Ewa; Studnicka, Michael; Tan, Wan; Bateman, Eric; Koçabas, Ali; Vollmer, William M; Gislason, Thorarrin; Marks, Guy; Koul, Parvaiz A; Harrabi, Imed; Gnatiuc, Louisa; Buist, Sonia

2014-05-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a commonly reported cause of death and associated with smoking. However, COPD mortality is high in poor countries with low smoking rates. Spirometric restriction predicts mortality better than airflow obstruction, suggesting that the prevalence of restriction could explain mortality rates attributed to COPD. We have studied associations between mortality from COPD and low lung function, and between both lung function and death rates and cigarette consumption and gross national income per capita (GNI). National COPD mortality rates were regressed against the prevalence of airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction in 22 Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study sites and against GNI, and national smoking prevalence. The prevalence of airflow obstruction and spirometric restriction in the BOLD sites were regressed against GNI and mean pack years smoked. National COPD mortality rates were more strongly associated with spirometric restriction in the BOLD sites (<60 years: men rs=0.73, p=0.0001; women rs=0.90, p<0.0001; 60+ years: men rs=0.63, p=0.0022; women rs=0.37, p=0.1) than obstruction (<60 years: men rs=0.28, p=0.20; women rs=0.17, p<0.46; 60+ years: men rs=0.28, p=0.23; women rs=0.22, p=0.33). Obstruction increased with mean pack years smoked, but COPD mortality fell with increased cigarette consumption and rose rapidly as GNI fell below US$15 000. Prevalence of restriction was not associated with smoking but also increased rapidly as GNI fell below US$15 000. Smoking remains the single most important cause of obstruction but a high prevalence of restriction associated with poverty could explain the high 'COPD' mortality in poor countries.

Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular and Diabetes Mortality in South Asia: Analysis From the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

PubMed

Yakoob, Mohammad Y; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Singh, Gitanjali M; Shi, Peilin; Ahsan, Habibul; Balakrishna, Nagalla; Brahmam, Ginnela N V; Chen, Yu; Afshin, Ashkan; Fahimi, Saman; Danaei, Goodarz; Powles, John W; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-12-01

To quantify cardiovascular disease and diabetes deaths attributable to dietary and metabolic risks by country, age, sex, and time in South Asian countries. We used the 2010 Global Burden of Disease national surveys to characterize risk factor levels by age and sex. We derived etiological effects of risk factors-disease endpoints, by age, from meta-analyses. We defined optimal levels. We combined these inputs with cause-specific mortality rates to compute population-attributable fractions as a percentage of total cardiometabolic deaths. Suboptimal diet was the leading cause of cardiometabolic mortality in 4 of 5 countries, with population-attributable fractions from 40.7% (95% uncertainty interval = 37.4, 44.1) in Bangladesh to 56.9% (95% uncertainty interval = 52.4, 61.5) in Pakistan. High systolic blood pressure was the second leading cause, except in Bangladesh, where it superseded suboptimal diet. This was followed in all nations by high fasting plasma glucose, low fruit intake, and low whole grain intake. Other prominent burdens were more variable, such as low intake of vegetables, low omega-3 fats, and high sodium intake in India, Nepal, and Pakistan. Important similarities and differences are evident in cardiometabolic mortality burdens of modifiable dietary and metabolic risks across these countries, informing health policy and program priorities.

Estimating the cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to the European Common Agricultural Policy on dietary saturated fats.

PubMed

Lloyd-Williams, Ffion; O'Flaherty, Martin; Mwatsama, Modi; Birt, Christopher; Ireland, Robin; Capewell, Simon

2008-07-01

To estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease within 15 European Union countries (before the 2004 enlargement) as a result of excess dietary saturated fats attributable to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). A spreadsheet model was developed to synthesize data on population, diet, cholesterol levels and mortality rates. A conservative estimate of a reduction in saturated fat consumption of just 2.2 g was chosen, representing 1% of daily energy intake. The fall in serum cholesterol concentration was then calculated, assuming that this 1% reduction in saturated fat consumption was replaced with 0.5% monounsaturated and 0.5% polyunsaturated fats. The resulting reduction in cardiovascular and stroke deaths was then estimated, and a sensitivity analysis conducted. Reducing saturated fat consumption by 1% and increasing monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat by 0.5% each would lower blood cholesterol levels by approximately 0.06 mmol/l, resulting in approximately 9800 fewer coronary heart disease deaths and 3000 fewer stroke deaths each year. The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to CAP appears substantial. Furthermore, these calculations were conservative estimates, and the true mortality burden may be higher. The analysis contributes to the current wider debate concerning the relationship between CAP, health and chronic disease across Europe, together with recent international developments and commitments to reduce chronic diseases. The reported mortality estimates should be considered in relation to the current CAP and any future reforms.

Temporal trends in population-based death rates associated with chronic liver disease and liver cancer in the United States over the last 30 years.

PubMed

Kim, Yuhree; Ejaz, Aslam; Tayal, Amit; Spolverato, Gaya; Bridges, John F P; Anders, Robert A; Pawlik, Timothy M

2014-10-01

The health and economic burden from liver disease in the United States is substantial and rising. The objective of this study was to characterize temporal trends in mortality from chronic liver disease and liver cancer and the incidence of associated risk factors using population-based data over the past 30 years. Population-based mortality data were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System, and population estimates were derived from the national census for US adults (aged >45 years). Crude death rates (CDRs), age-adjusted death rates (ADRs), and average annual percentage change (AAPC) statistics were calculated. In total, 690,414 deaths (1.1%) were attributable to chronic liver disease, whereas 331,393 deaths (0.5%) were attributable to liver cancer between 1981 and 2010. The incidence of liver cancer was estimated at 7.1 cases per 100,000 population. Mortality rates from chronic liver disease and liver cancer increased substantially over the past 3 decades, with ADRs of 23.7 and 16.6 per 100,000 population in 2010, respectively. The AAPC from 2006 to 2010 demonstrated an increased ADR for chronic liver disease (AAPC, 1.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-2.8%) and liver cancer (AAPC, 2.6%; 95% confidence interval, 2.4%-2.7%). A comprehensive approach that involves primary and secondary prevention, increased access to treatment, and more funding for liver-related research is needed to address the high death rates associated with chronic liver disease and liver cancer in the United States. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

The confounding of race and geography: how much of the excess stroke mortality among African Americans is explained by geography?

PubMed

Yang, Dongyan; Howard, George; Coffey, Christopher S; Roseman, Jeffrey

2004-01-01

The excess stroke mortality among African Americans and Southerners is well known. Because a higher proportion of the population living in the 'Stroke Belt' is African American, then a portion of the estimated excess risk of stroke death traditionally associated with African-American race may be attributable to geography (i.e., race and geography are 'confounded'). In this paper we estimate the proportion of the excess stroke mortality among African Americans that is attributable to geography. The numbers of stroke deaths at the county level are available from the vital statistics system of the US. A total of 1,143 counties with a population of at least 500 whites and 500 African Americans were selected for these analyses. The black-to-white stroke mortality ratio was estimated with and without adjustment for county of residence for those aged 45-64 and for those aged 65 and over. The difference in the stroke mortality ratio before versus after adjustment for county provides an estimate of the proportion of the excess stroke mortality inappropriately attributed to race (that is in fact attributable to geographic region). For ages 45-64, the black-to-white stroke mortality ratio was reduced from 3.41 to 3.04 for men, and from 2.82 to 2.60 for women, suggesting that between 10 and 15% of the excess mortality traditionally attributed to race is rather due to geography. Over the age of 65, the black-to-white stroke mortality ratio was reduced from 1.31 to 1.27 for men, and from 1.097 to 1.095 for women, suggesting that between 2 and 13% of the excess mortality attributed to black race is actually attributable to geography. The reductions of all the four age strata gender groups were highly significant. These results suggest that a significant, although relatively small, proportion of the excess mortality traditionally attributed to race is rather a factor of geography. Copyright 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel

Tobacco Smoking Status and the Contribution to Burden of Diseases in Iran, 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

PubMed

Ghasemian, Anoosheh; Rezaei, Nazila; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Mansouri, Anita; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Delavari, Alireza; Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Sharifi, Farshad; Naderimagham, Shohreh

2015-08-01

Tobacco smoking and exposure to second-hand smoke in the indoor environment are major public health risks worldwide. The aim of this paper is to report and critique a global assessment of smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable deaths, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) extracted from GBD study 2010, by sex and age in Iran from 1990 to 2010. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2010 estimated the distributions of exposure and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and analyzing published and unpublished data. These assessments were used, together with estimates of death and DALYs due to specific risk factors, to calculate the attributed burden for each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. Uncertainties in the distribution of exposure, relative risks, and relevant outcomes were incorporated into estimates of attributable mortality and burden. In this study, our aim was to reformulate the GBD data, produce new graphs, and explain the results for Iran in greater detail. Between 1990 and 2010, the prevalence of tobacco smoking at all ages increased by 1% in men and declined by 2% in women in Iran, but the overall prevalence in the general population was unchanged (12%). A reduction was observed in the age-standardized death and DALY rates (per 100,000 population) attributed to tobacco smoking, including second-hand smoke. The attributed DALY rate was greater for Iranian men than for Iranian women. The highest rates of DALYs because of tobacco smoking were found in smoker men and women aged 70+, but exposure to second-hand smoke had the most significant burden in children under 5 years old. In 1990, the three leading disease burdens attributed to tobacco smoking, including second-hand smoke, were ischemic heart disease; communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; and chronic respiratory diseases. In 2010, three leading burden of diseases attributed to tobacco smoking belonged to ischemic heart disease, chronic respiratory disease, and, and cerebrovascular disease, respectively. Despite a reduction in the rate of tobacco smoking, including second-hand smoke, since 1990, smoking exposure remained the fifth leading risk factor for deaths and DALYs in Iran in 2010. Overall, our data clearly show the need for new efforts in Iran to reduce the mortality and burden attributed to tobacco smoking.

Smoking and Mortality in Eastern Europe: Results From the PrivMort Retrospective Cohort Study of 177 376 Individuals.

PubMed

Stefler, Denes; Murphy, Michael; Irdam, Darja; Horvat, Pia; Jarvis, Martin; King, Lawrence; McKee, Martin; Bobak, Martin

2018-05-03

The estimated prevalence of smoking and proportion of deaths due to tobacco in Eastern European countries are among the highest in the world. Existing estimates of mortality attributable to smoking in the region are mostly indirect. The aim of this analysis was to calculate the proportion of tobacco-attributed deaths in three Eastern European countries using individual level cohort data. The PrivMort project established a cohort of relatives of participants in population sample surveys in Russia, Belarus and Hungary. Survey participants provided data on smoking habits and vital statistics of their close relatives between 1982 and 2013. Population attributable risk fractions (PARF) in men (n = 99528) and women (n = 77848) aged 40-79 years were calculated from the prevalence rates of smoking and hazard ratios of mortality for smokers versus non-smokers. Trends in PARF over four 8-year time periods (1982-1989, 1990-1997, 1998-2005, and 2006-2013) were examined. In men in the most recent period (2006-2013), the proportions of deaths attributable to tobacco were 23% in Russia, 22% in Belarus, and 22% in Hungary. The respective estimates in women were lower (2%, 2%, and 13%), possibly due to underestimation of smoking prevalence. PARF estimates have declined slightly since the early 1990s in men but increased in women. Consistently with existing indirect estimates, our results based on individual level cohort data suggest that over one fifth of all deaths in men aged 40-79 years are attributable to tobacco. While these proportions are lower in women, the increasing trend is a major concern. This is the first large scale, individual-level cohort study that estimated the mortality attributable to tobacco smoking directly in Eastern European population samples. The results confirm previous indirect estimates and show that more than 20% of all deaths in Eastern European men can be attributed to tobacco. The study also confirms the increasing trend in smoking-related deaths among women. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted policy interventions in Eastern European countries.

Recent trends in cutaneous melanoma incidence and death rates in the United States, 1992-2006.

PubMed

Jemal, Ahmedin; Saraiya, Mona; Patel, Pragna; Cherala, Sai S; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill; Kim, Julian; Wiggins, Charles L; Wingo, Phyllis A

2011-11-01

Increasing cutaneous melanoma incidence rates in the United States have been attributed to heightened detection of thin (≤ 1-mm) lesions. We sought to describe melanoma incidence and mortality trends in the 12 cancer registries covered by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and to estimate the contribution of thin lesions to melanoma mortality. We used joinpoint analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence and mortality data from 1992 to 2006. During 1992 through 2006, melanoma incidence rates among non-Hispanic whites increased for all ages and tumor thicknesses. Death rates increased for older (>65 years) but not younger persons. Between 1998 to 1999 and 2004 to 2005, melanoma death rates associated with thin lesions increased and accounted for about 30% of the total melanoma deaths. Availability of long-term incidence data for 14% of the US population was a limitation. The continued increases in melanoma death rates for older persons and for thin lesions suggest that the increases may partly reflect increased ultraviolet radiation exposure. The substantial contribution of thin lesions to melanoma mortality underscores the importance of standard wide excision techniques and the need for molecular characterization of the lesions for aggressive forms. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Burden of influenza-associated deaths in the Americas, 2002-2008.

PubMed

Cheng, Po-Yung; Palekar, Rakhee; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Iuliano, Danielle; Alencar, Airlane P; Bresee, Joseph; Oliva, Otavio; de Souza, Maria de Fatima Marinho; Widdowson, Marc-Alain

2015-08-01

Influenza disease is a vaccine-preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) region has invested in influenza vaccines, but few estimates of influenza burden exist to justify these investments. We estimated influenza-associated deaths for 35 PAHO countries during 2002-2008. Annually, PAHO countries report registered deaths. We used respiratory and circulatory (R&C) codes from seven countries with distinct influenza seasonality and high-quality mortality data to estimate influenza-associated mortality rates by age group (0-64, 65-74, and ≥ 75 years) with a Serfling regression model or a negative binomial model. We calculated the percent of all R&C deaths attributable to influenza by age group in these countries (etiologic fraction) and applied it to the age-specific mortality in 13 countries with good mortality data but poorly defined seasonality. Lastly, we grouped the remaining 15 countries into WHO mortality strata and applied the age and mortality stratum-specific rate of influenza mortality calculated from the 20 countries. We summed each country's estimate to arrive at an average total annual number and rate of influenza deaths in the Americas. For the 35 PAHO countries, we estimated an annual mean influenza-associated mortality rate of 2·1/100,000 among <65-year olds, 31·9/100 000 among those 65-74 years, and 161·8/100,000 among those ≥ 75 years. We estimated that annually between 40,880 and 160,270 persons (mean, 85,100) die of influenza illness in the PAHO region. Influenza remains an important cause of mortality in the Americas. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Self-rated health and mortality in different occupational classes and income groups in Nord-Trøndelag County, Norway.

PubMed

Holseter, Christoffer; Dalen, Joakim Døving; Krokstad, Steinar; Eikemo, Terje Andreas

2015-03-10

People with a lower socioeconomic position have a higher the prevalence of most self-rated health problems. In this article we ask whether this may be attributed to self-rated health not reflecting actual health, understood as mortality, in different socioeconomic groups. For the study we used data from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study 1984-86 (HUNT1), in which the county's entire adult population aged 20 years and above were invited to participate. The association between self-rated health and mortality in different occupational classes and income groups was analysed. The analysis corrected for age, chronic disease, functional impairment and lifestyle factors. The association between self-rated health and mortality was of the same order of magnitude for the occupational classes and income groups, but persons without work/income and with poor self-rated health stood out. Compared with persons in the highest socioeconomic class, unemployed men had a hazard ratio for death that was three times higher in the follow-up period. For women with no income, the ratio was twice as high. INTERPRETATION Self-rated health and mortality largely conform to the different socioeconomic strata. This supports the perception that socioeconomic differences in health are a reality and represent a significant challenge nationally. Our results also increase the credibility of findings from other studies that use self-reported health in surveys to measure differences and identify the mechanisms that create them.

[Cancer mortality trends in Mexico, 1980-2011].

PubMed

Torres-Sánchez, Luisa E; Rojas-Martínez, Rosalba; Escamilla-Núñez, Consuelo; de la Vara-Salazar, Elvia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo

2014-01-01

To evaluate trends in cancer mortality in Mexico between 1980-2011. Through direct method and using World Population 2010 as standard population, mortality rates for all cancers and the 15 most frequent locations, adjusted for age and sex were calculated. Trends in mortality rates and annual percentage change for each type of cancer were estimated by joinpoint regression model. As a result of the reduction in mortality from lung cancer (-3.2% -1.8% in men and in women), stomach (-2.1% -2.4% in men and in women) and cervix (-4.7%); since 2004 a significant (~1% per year) decline was observed in cancer mortality in general, in all ages, and in the group of 35-64 years of both sexes. Other cancers such as breast and ovarian cancer in women; as well as for prostate cancer in men, showed a steady increase. Some of the reductions in cancer mortality may be partially attributed to the effectiveness of prevention programs. However, adequate records of population-based cancer are needed to assess the real impact of these programs; as well as designing and evaluating innovative interventions to develop more cost-effective prevention policies.

A nationwide evidence-based study of factors associated with hospitalisations due to unintentional poisoning and poisoning mortality in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chien, Wu-Chien; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Lin, Chia-Hsin; Lai, Ching-Huang

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the epidemiologic characteristics of unintentional poisoning cases and the factors associated with inpatient mortality. Data were retrieved from the National Health Insurance database from 2005 to 2007. Patients with diagnosis classifications of ICD-9-CM E850-E869 (unintentional poisoning) were selected. SPSS 18.0 software was used for the analysis. In Taiwan between 2005 and 2007, a total of 11,523 patients were hospitalised due to unintentional poisoning, with a hospitalisation rate of 16.83 per 100,000, of which 60.1% and 39.9% were attributable to drug poisoning and solid, liquid and gas substance poisoning, respectively. The hospitalisation rate in men was higher than that of women. The age group of 45-64 had the highest hospitalisation rate of 52.85 per 100,000. The inpatient mortality rate increased with the presence of the following factors: age of 65 or older, surgery or procedure, a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), short length of hospital stays, acute respiratory failure, alcohol poisoning, pesticide poisoning and a higher-level hospital visited. Methanol, herbicides and organophosphorus pesticide intoxications are associated with higher mortality rates. Therefore, when caring for patients poisoned by the above agents, healthcare professionals should look out for their clinical development to ensure quality of care and to reduce mortality.

Estimating mortality rates of adult fish from entrainment through the propellers of river towboats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutreuter, S.; Dettmers, J.M.; Wahl, David H.

2003-01-01

We developed a method to estimate mortality rates of adult fish caused by entrainment through the propellers of commercial towboats operating in river channels. The method combines trawling while following towboats (to recover a fraction of the kills) and application of a hydrodynamic model of diffusion (to estimate the fraction of the total kills collected in the trawls). The sampling problem is unusual and required quantifying relatively rare events. We first examined key statistical properties of the entrainment mortality rate estimators using Monte Carlo simulation, which demonstrated that a design-based estimator and a new ad hoc estimator are both unbiased and converge to the true value as the sample size becomes large. Next, we estimated the entrainment mortality rates of adult fishes in Pool 26 of the Mississippi River and the Alton Pool of the Illinois River, where we observed kills that we attributed to entrainment. Our estimates of entrainment mortality rates were 2.52 fish/km of towboat travel (80% confidence interval, 1.00-6.09 fish/km) for gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum, 0.13 fish/km (0.00-0.41) for skipjack herring Alosa chrysochloris, and 0.53 fish/km (0.00-1.33) for both shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus and smallmouth buffalo Ictiobus bubalus. Our approach applies more broadly to commercial vessels operating in confined channels, including other large rivers and intracoastal waterways.

Demographic profile of the girl child in India.

PubMed

Unisa, S

1995-01-01

This article presents a statistical profile of the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of female children in India during 1951-91. The population 0-14 years old increased during 1951-81. In 1991, there were 52-55 million children 0-4 years old. 40% of all women were 0-14 years old, 19% of the total population in 1991. Boys outnumbered girls at all childhood ages. Males gained more in mortality improvements than girls did over time. The decline in the 1991 sex ratio is attributed to female amniocentesis and differences in undercounts. Infant mortality was high and fluctuated prior to 1941. Rates thereafter declined below 200. Infant mortality improved considerably after the 1950s. The 1988 infant mortality rate (IMR) was 95 for males and 93 for females per 1000 live births. A higher female IMR during 1972-87 is attributed to low female status, sex bias in health care, and higher female rates of common childhood diseases. Boys are breast fed longer. Child marriage below the age of 14 years declined over time. In 1981, 93% of girls 0-14 years old were unmarried. The singulate mean age of marriage increased from 15.59 years in 1951 to 18.32 years in 1981. Literacy rates increased for both males and females during 1961-81 and increased rapidly during 1981-91. The gap between male educational levels and female educational levels was narrowing. School attendance was 62.07% among 10-14 year old boys and 37.47% among 10-14 year old girls. Kerala state was the only state where girls have very high attendance rates. School attendance among 10-14 year old children was positively correlated with higher budget allocations and the average cost per student. School attendance was negatively correlated with illiteracy among household members. In rural areas, girl's attendance was related to access to primary school facilities and roads.

Race Matters: Analyzing the Relationship between Colorectal Cancer Mortality Rates and Various Factors within Respective Racial Groups.

PubMed

Veach, Emma; Xique, Ismael; Johnson, Jada; Lyle, Jessica; Almodovar, Israel; Sellers, Kimberly F; Moore, Calandra T; Jackson, Monica C

2014-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cause of mortality due to cancer (with over 50,000 deaths annually), representing 9% of all cancer deaths in the United States (1). In particular, the African-American CRC mortality rate is among the highest reported for any race/ethnic group. Meanwhile, the CRC mortality rate for Hispanics is 15-19% lower than that for non-Hispanic Caucasians (2). While factors such as obesity, age, and socio-economic status are known to associate with CRC mortality, do these and other potential factors correlate with CRC death in the same way across races? This research linked CRC mortality data obtained from the National Cancer Institute with data from the United States Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Solar Radiation Database to examine geographic and racial/ethnic differences, and develop a spatial regression model that adjusted for several factors that may attribute to health disparities among ethnic/racial groups. This analysis showed that sunlight, obesity, and socio-economic status were significant predictors of CRC mortality. The study is significant because it not only verifies known factors associated with the risk of CRC death but, more importantly, demonstrates how these factors vary within different racial groups. Accordingly, education on reducing risk factors for CRC should be directed at specific racial groups above and beyond creating a generalized education plan.

Long-term mortality benefits of air quality improvement during the twelfth five-year-plan period in 31 provincial capital cities of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tao; Cai, Yuanyuan; Feng, Baixiang; Cao, Ganxiang; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Liu, Sha; Pei, Lei; Fu, Li; Yang, Xinyi; Zhang, Bo; Ma, Wenjun

2018-01-01

The severe air pollution across China in the past several years has made the Chinese government recognize its significant impacts on public health and society, and take enormous efforts to improve the air quality all over the country, especially during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (12th FYP). However, the overall effectiveness of these air pollution control policies remains unclear. In this study, we selected the 31 municipalities and provincial capital cities in mainland China as study settings. We collected the annual average population size, mortality rates (total mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, total cancer, lung cancer and breast cancer) and concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, SO2 and NO2) in each capital city from 2010 to 2015 from national or local Statistical Yearbooks. The effect sizes of air pollutants on mortality were obtained from previously published meta analyses or cohort studies. We first estimated the annual mortality rates attributed to the changes in air pollutant concentrations for every city in each year. Then, we further estimated the mortality benefits in the scenarios where the air quality had reached the grade II levels of Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. In most capital cities, we observed dominant decreases in air pollutant concentrations during the 12th FYP, particularly from 2013 to 2015, which has led to significant mortality benefits for the public. A total of 121,658 deaths (0.441‰) have been prevented due to the decrease of PM2.5concentrations from 2013 to 2015 in all included cities. The morality benefits were larger in capital cities located in the key regions (the three main regions and ten city groups) than the other cities. In addition, more mortality benefits could be obtained in the future if the air quality reaches the grade II levels of Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) or WHO guidelines. We concluded that substantial mortality benefits achieved during the 12th FYP may be attributed to the improvements in China's air quality, which indicated the significant effectiveness of air pollution control policies.

POLYMORPHISMS IN THE DNA NUCLEOTIDE EXCISION REPAIR GENES AND LUNG CANCER RISK IN XUAN WEI, CHINA

EPA Science Inventory

The lung cancer mortality rate in Xuan Wei County, China is among the highest in the country and has been etiologically attributed to exposure to indoor smoky coal emissions that contain very high levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Nucleotide excision repair (NE...

Residual tree response to tanoak decline in California

Treesearch

Kristen M. Waring; Kevin L. O' Hara

2006-01-01

Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) frequently grows in association with tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) along the central and northern California coast. High rates of tanoak mortality beginning in the mid 1990’s have been attributed to Phytophthora ramorum, a water mold believed to be non-native. Of the many...

Estimating influenza and respiratory syncytial virus-associated mortality in Western Kenya using health and demographic surveillance system data, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Emukule, Gideon O; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Chaves, Sandra S; Mott, Joshua A; Tempia, Stefano; Bigogo, Godfrey; Nyawanda, Bryan; Nyaguara, Amek; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; van der Velden, Koos; Paget, John W

2017-01-01

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated mortality has not been well-established in tropical Africa. We used the negative binomial regression method and the rate-difference method (i.e. deaths during low and high influenza/RSV activity months), to estimate excess mortality attributable to influenza and RSV using verbal autopsy data collected through a health and demographic surveillance system in Western Kenya, 2007-2013. Excess mortality rates were calculated for a) all-cause mortality, b) respiratory deaths (including pneumonia), c) HIV-related deaths, and d) pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) related deaths. Using the negative binomial regression method, the mean annual all-cause excess mortality rate associated with influenza and RSV was 14.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0-93.3) and 17.1 (95% CI 0.0-111.5) per 100,000 person-years (PY) respectively; and 10.5 (95% CI 0.0-28.5) and 7.3 (95% CI 0.0-27.3) per 100,000 PY for respiratory deaths, respectively. Highest mortality rates associated with influenza were among ≥50 years, particularly among persons with TB (41.6[95% CI 0.0-122.7]); and with RSV were among <5 years. Using the rate-difference method, the excess mortality rate for influenza and RSV was 44.8 (95% CI 36.8-54.4) and 19.7 (95% CI 14.7-26.5) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for all-cause deaths; and 9.6 (95% CI 6.3-14.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.9-11.0) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for respiratory deaths. Our study shows a substantial excess mortality associated with influenza and RSV in Western Kenya, especially among children <5 years and older persons with TB, supporting recommendations for influenza vaccination and efforts to develop RSV vaccines.

Excess mortality rate associated with hepatitis C virus infection: A community-based cohort study in rural Egypt.

PubMed

Mostafa, Aya; Shimakawa, Yusuke; Medhat, Ahmed; Mikhail, Nabiel N; Chesnais, Cédric B; Arafa, Naglaa; Bakr, Iman; El Hoseiny, Mostafa; El-Daly, Mai; Esmat, Gamal; Abdel-Hamid, Mohamed; Mohamed, Mostafa K; Fontanet, Arnaud

2016-06-01

>80% of people chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) live in resource-limited countries, yet the excess mortality associated with HCV infection in these settings is poorly documented. Individuals were recruited from three villages in rural Egypt in 1997-2003 and their vital status was determined in 2008-2009. Mortality rates across the cohorts were compared according to HCV status: chronic HCV infection (anti-HCV antibody positive and HCV RNA positive), cleared HCV infection (anti-HCV antibody positive and HCV RNA negative) and never infected (anti-HCV antibody negative). Data related to cause of death was collected from a death registry in one village. Among 18,111 survey participants enrolled in 1997-2003, 9.1% had chronic HCV infection, 5.5% had cleared HCV infection, and 85.4% had never been infected. After a mean time to follow-up of 8.6years, vital status was obtained for 16,282 (89.9%) participants. When compared to those who had never been infected with HCV in the same age groups, mortality rate ratios (MRR) of males with chronic HCV infection aged <35, 35-44, and 45-54years were 2.35 (95% CI 1.00-5.49), 2.87 (1.46-5.63), and 2.22 (1.29-3.81), respectively. No difference in mortality rate was seen in older males or in females. The all-cause mortality rate attributable to chronic HCV infection was 5.7% (95% CI: 1.0-10.1%), while liver-related mortality was 45.5% (11.3-66.4%). Use of a highly potent new antiviral agent to treat all villagers with positive HCV RNA may reduce all-cause mortality rate by up to 5% and hepatic mortality by up to 40% in rural Egypt. Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Weinberger, Kate R; Haykin, Leah; Eliot, Melissa N; Schwartz, Joel D; Gasparrini, Antonio; Wellenius, Gregory A

2017-10-01

There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location. We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas. We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045-2055 and 2085-2095 compared to 1992-2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth. In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086-2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: -485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature. Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario has the potential to substantially reduce future temperature-related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of new (orphan) drug approvals on premature mortality from rare diseases in the United States and France, 1999-2007.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Frank R

2013-02-01

This paper investigates the impact of the introduction of new orphan drugs on premature mortality from rare diseases using longitudinal, disease-level data obtained from a number of major databases. The analysis is performed using data from two countries: the United States (during the period 1999-2006) and France (during the period 2000-2007). For both countries, we estimate models using two alternative definitions of premature mortality, several alternative criteria for inclusion in the set of rare diseases, and several values of the potential lag between new drug approvals and premature mortality reduction. Both the United States and French estimates indicate that, overall, premature mortality from rare diseases is unrelated to the cumulative number of drugs approved 0-2 years earlier but is significantly inversely related to the cumulative number of drugs approved 3-4 years earlier. This delay is not surprising, since most patients probably do not have access to a drug until several years after it has been launched. Although the estimates for the two countries are qualitatively similar, the estimated magnitudes of the US coefficients are about four times as large as the magnitudes of the French coefficients. This may be partly due to greater errors in measuring dates of drug introduction in France. Also, access to new drugs may be more restricted in France than it is in the United States. Our estimates indicate that, in the United States, potential years of life lost to rare diseases before age 65 (PYLL65) declined at an average annual rate of 3.3% and that, in the absence of lagged new drug approvals, PYLL65 would have increased at a rate of 0.9%. Since the US population aged 0-64 was increasing at the rate of 1.0% per year, this means that PYLL65 per person under 65 would have remained approximately constant. The reduction in the US growth rate of PYLL65 attributable to lagged new drug approvals was 4.2%. In France, PYLL65 declined at an average annual rate of 1.8%. The estimates imply that, in the absence of lagged new drug approvals, it would have declined at a rate of 0.6%. The reduction in the French growth rate of PYLL65 attributable to lagged new drug approvals was 1.1%. Earlier access to orphan drugs could result in earlier reductions in premature mortality from rare diseases.

Increasing the minimum age of marriage program to improve maternal and child health in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anjarwati

2017-08-01

The objective of the article is to review the importance of understanding the adolescent reproductive health, especially the impact of early marriage to have commitment for health maintenance by increasing the minimum age of marriage. There are countless studies describing the impact of pregnancy at a very young age, the risk that young people must understand to support the program of increasing minimum age of marriage in Indonesia. Increasing the minimum age of marriage is as one of the government programs in improving maternal and child health. It also supports the Indonesian government's program about a thousand days of life. It is required that teens understand the impact of early marriage to prepare for optimal health for future generations. The maternal mortality rate and infant mortality rate in Indonesia is still high because health is not optimal since the early period of pregnancy. These studies reveal that the increased number of early marriages leads to rising divorce rate, maternal mortality rate, and infant mortality and intensifies the risk of cervical cancer. The increase in early marriage is mostly attributed to unwanted pregnancy. It is revealed that early marriage increases the rate of pregnancy at too young an age with the risk of maternal and child health in Indonesia.

Diabetes increases mortality after myocardial infarction by oxidizing CaMKII

PubMed Central

Luo, Min; Guan, Xiaoqun; Luczak, Elizabeth D.; Lang, Di; Kutschke, William; Gao, Zhan; Yang, Jinying; Glynn, Patric; Sossalla, Samuel; Swaminathan, Paari D.; Weiss, Robert M.; Yang, Baoli; Rokita, Adam G.; Maier, Lars S.; Efimov, Igor R.; Hund, Thomas J.; Anderson, Mark E.

2013-01-01

Diabetes increases oxidant stress and doubles the risk of dying after myocardial infarction, but the mechanisms underlying increased mortality are unknown. Mice with streptozotocin-induced diabetes developed profound heart rate slowing and doubled mortality compared with controls after myocardial infarction. Oxidized Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (ox-CaMKII) was significantly increased in pacemaker tissues from diabetic patients compared with that in nondiabetic patients after myocardial infarction. Streptozotocin-treated mice had increased pacemaker cell ox-CaMKII and apoptosis, which were further enhanced by myocardial infarction. We developed a knockin mouse model of oxidation-resistant CaMKIIδ (MM-VV), the isoform associated with cardiovascular disease. Streptozotocin-treated MM-VV mice and WT mice infused with MitoTEMPO, a mitochondrial targeted antioxidant, expressed significantly less ox-CaMKII, exhibited increased pacemaker cell survival, maintained normal heart rates, and were resistant to diabetes-attributable mortality after myocardial infarction. Our findings suggest that activation of a mitochondrial/ox-CaMKII pathway contributes to increased sudden death in diabetic patients after myocardial infarction. PMID:23426181

Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

PubMed Central

Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

2017-01-01

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

Relatively short diagnostic delays (<8 hours) produce morbidity and mortality in blunt small bowel injury: an analysis of time to operative intervention in 198 patients from a multicenter experience.

PubMed

Fakhry, S M; Brownstein, M; Watts, D D; Baker, C C; Oller, D

2000-03-01

Blunt small bowel injury (SBI) is uncommon, and its timely diagnosis may be difficult. The impact of operative delays on morbidity and mortality has been unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship of diagnostic delays to morbidity and mortality in blunt SBI. Patients with blunt SBI with perforation were identified from the registries of eight trauma centers (1989-1997). Patients with duodenal injuries were excluded. Data were extracted by individual chart review. Patients were classified as multi-trauma (group 1) or near-isolated SBI (group 2 with Abbreviated Injury Scale score < 2 for other body areas). Time to operation and its impact on mortality and morbidity was determined for each patient. A total of 198 patients met inclusion criteria: 66.2% were male, mean age was 35.2 years (range, 1-90 years) and mean Injury Severity Score was 16.7 (range, 9-47). 100 patients had multiple injuries (group 1). There were 21 deaths (10.6%) with 9 (4.5%) attributable to delay in operation for SBI. In patients with near-isolated SBI, the incidence of mortality increased with time to operative intervention (within 8 hours: 2%; 8-16 hours: 9.1%; 16-24 hours: 16.7%; greater than 24 hours: 30.8%, p = 0.009) as did the incidence of complications. Delays as short as 8 hours 5 minutes and 11 hours 15 minutes were associated with mortality attributable to SBI. The rates of delay in diagnosis were not significantly associated with age, gender, intoxication, transfer status, or presence of associated injuries. Delays in the diagnosis of SBI are directly responsible for almost half the deaths in this series. Even relatively brief delays (as little as 8 hours) result in morbidity and mortality directly attributable to "missed" SBI. Further investigation into the prompt diagnosis of this injury is needed.

Disease-related mortality exceeds treatment-related mortality in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia on second-line or later therapy.

PubMed

Pearson, Edward; McGarry, Lisa; Gala, Smeet; Nieset, Christopher; Nanavaty, Merena; Mwamburi, Mkaya; Levy, Yair

2016-04-01

Treatment of newly-diagnosed patients with chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CP-CML) with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) results in near-normal life expectancy. However, CP-CML patients resistant to initial TKIs face a poorer prognosis and significantly higher CML-related mortality. We conducted a systematic literature review to evaluate the specific causes of deaths (diseases progression versus drug-related) in CP-CML patients receiving second- or third-line therapy. We identified eight studies based on our criteria that reported causes of death. Overall, 5% of second-line and 10% of third-line patients died during the study follow-up period. For second-line, (7 studies, n=1926), mortality was attributed to disease progression for 41% of deaths, 2% to treatment-related causes, 3% were treatment-unrelated, and 50% were unspecified adverse events (AEs), not likely related to study drug. In third-line, (2 studies, n=144), 71% deaths were attributed to disease progression, 7% treatment-related AEs, 14% treatment-unrelated and 7% unspecified AEs. Annual death rates for second- and third-line therapy were significantly higher than for general population in similar age group. Our findings suggest death attributed to disease progression is approximately 10 times that due to treatment-related AEs in patients with CP-CML receiving second- or third-line therapy. Therefore, the potential benefits of effective treatment for these patients with the currently available TKIs outweigh the risks of treatment-induced AEs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to the European Common Agricultural Policy on dietary saturated fats

PubMed Central

O’Flaherty, Martin; Mwatsama, Modi; Birt, Christopher; Ireland, Robin; Capewell, Simon

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease within 15 European Union countries (before the 2004 enlargement) as a result of excess dietary saturated fats attributable to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Methods A spreadsheet model was developed to synthesize data on population, diet, cholesterol levels and mortality rates. A conservative estimate of a reduction in saturated fat consumption of just 2.2 g was chosen, representing 1% of daily energy intake. The fall in serum cholesterol concentration was then calculated, assuming that this 1% reduction in saturated fat consumption was replaced with 0.5% monounsaturated and 0.5% polyunsaturated fats. The resulting reduction in cardiovascular and stroke deaths was then estimated, and a sensitivity analysis conducted. Findings Reducing saturated fat consumption by 1% and increasing monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat by 0.5% each would lower blood cholesterol levels by approximately 0.06 mmol/l, resulting in approximately 9800 fewer coronary heart disease deaths and 3000 fewer stroke deaths each year. Conclusion The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to CAP appears substantial. Furthermore, these calculations were conservative estimates, and the true mortality burden may be higher. The analysis contributes to the current wider debate concerning the relationship between CAP, health and chronic disease across Europe, together with recent international developments and commitments to reduce chronic diseases. The reported mortality estimates should be considered in relation to the current CAP and any future reforms. PMID:18670665

Crude estimates of cannabis-attributable mortality and morbidity in Canada-implications for public health focused intervention priorities.

PubMed

Fischer, Benedikt; Imtiaz, Sameer; Rudzinski, Katherine; Rehm, Jürgen

2016-03-01

Cannabis is the most commonly used drug in Canada; while its use is currently controlled by criminal prohibition, debates about potential control reforms are intensifying. There is substantive evidence about cannabis-related risks to health in various key outcome domains; however, little is known about the actual extent of these harms specifically in Canada. Based on epidemiological data (e.g. prevalence of relevant cannabis use rates and relevant risk behaviors; risk ratios; and annual numbers of morbidity/mortality cases in relevant domains), and applying the methodology of comparative risk assessment, we estimated attributable fractions for cannabis-related morbidity and mortality, specifically for: (i) motor-vehicle accidents (MVAs); (ii) use disorders; (iii) mental health (psychosis) and (iv) lung cancer. MVAs and lung cancer are the only domains where cannabis-attributable mortality is estimated to occur. While cannabis use results in morbidity in all domains, MVAs and use disorders by far outweigh the other domains in the number of cases; the popularly debated mental health consequences (e.g., psychosis) translate into relatively small case numbers. The present crude estimates should guide and help prioritize public health-oriented interventions for the cannabis-related health burden in the population in Canada; formal burden of disease calculations should be conducted. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observeddata. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results variedby region . Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1 .6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.628.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. In this study we evaluate changes in ozone related mortality due to changes in biogenic f

Temporal and spatial estimates of adult striped bass mortality from telemetry and transmitter return data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, S.P.; Isely, J.J.

2004-01-01

Estimates of total mortality, fishing mortality, and natural mortality in the fishery for the adult striped bass Morone saxatilis in J. Strom Thurmond Reservoir, South Carolina-Georgia, were determined from long-term radiotelemetry data and high-reward radio transmitter return data using catch curve analyses. Annual total mortality rates were 0.81 ?? 0.06 (mean ?? SE) for year 1 (July 1999-June 2000) and 0.42 ?? 0.04 for year 2 (July 2000-June 2001). We observed that the force of fishing was much greater than the force of natural death on total mortality in this fishery. Total exploitation of all implanted striped bass over the 2-year study period was 48%. Fishing mortality rates were 0.67 ?? 0.04 for year 1 and 0.33 ?? 0.02 for year 2, and natural mortality rates were 0.14 ?? 0.02 for year 1 and 0.09 ?? 0.02 for year 2. We also identified seasonal increases in total and fishing mortality rates from July to September. Fishing mortality was highest temporally and spatially during late spring and late summer near the tailrace below Richard B. Russell Dam owing to high angling pressure for striped bass while the fish were congregated in summer refugia. Natural mortality occurred only during mid to late summer in the middle section of the reservoir. These deaths were attributed to striped bass's becoming trapped in unsuitable summer habitat in the lower and middle sections of the reservoir. Mean postsurgery growth from 15 harvested study fish at large for a mean of 1.16 ?? 0.81 years was estimated to be 1.71 ?? 0.73 kg/year. Internal implantation of telemetry devices appeared to have no negative effect on long-term growth, health, and survival of adult striped bass and did not bias mortality and survival estimates.

Ventilator associated pneumonia: perspectives on the burden of illness.

PubMed

Cook, D

2000-01-01

The objective of this narrative review is to summarize selected current concepts and clinical evidence regarding the burden of illness of VAP, including its epidemiology, diagnosis, attributable mortality and risk factors. Studies were identified through MEDLINE, EMBASE, bibliographies of primary and review articles and personal files. While cross sectional studies inform us about VAP prevalence, longitudinal studies inform us of the cumulative risk and conditional risk of developing VAP. Reported VAP rates are modulated by factors related to case mix, causative microorganisms, interventions that influence risk over time, and VAP definitions employed. Population-specific and organism-specific VAP rates are needed to avoid misleading benchmarking between different ICUs, and to minimize inappropriate between-study comparisons. Observational studies have shown that invasive sampling techniques versus non-invasive approaches to diagnose VAP facilitates more targeted antibiotic treatment; however, the influence of the diagnostic method on endpoints such as mortality is less clear. VAP is associated with approximately a 4 day increase in length of ICU stay and an attributable mortality of approximately 20-30%. Fixed VAP risk factors include underlying cardiorespiratory disease, neurologic injury and trauma. Modifiable VAP risk factors include supine body position, witnessed aspiration, paralytic agents and antibiotic exposure. If modifiable risk factors tested in randomized trials lower VAP rates, such as semirecumbency versus supine positioning, these represent effective VAP prevention strategies. Ventilator-associated pneumonia is a major morbid outcome among critically ill patients. Studies evaluating more effective prevention and treatment strategies are needed.

[Burden of disease attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution in 1990 and 2010 in China].

PubMed

Liu, Shiwei; Zhou, Maigeng; Wang, Lijun; Li, Yichong; Liu, Yunning; Liu, Jiangmei; You, Jinling; Yin, Peng

2015-04-01

To assess the burden of disease attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution in 1990 and 2010 in China. On the basis of the results of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2010 (GBD 2010) for China's estimates, we used population attributable fractions (PAF) to examine the burden of disease (mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY)) attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution in 1990 and 2010 in China, with 95% uncertainty interval (95% UI) estimate, and increasing rate to explore the trends of attributed burden of disease across the study period of 20 years. In 2010, 38.9% (95% UI: 27.0%-49.4%) of lower respiratory infections for < 5 years children, 27.2% (95% UI: 10.2%-37.5%) of lung cancer, 29.9% (95% UI: 25.8%-34.2%) of ischemic heart disease, 35.0% (95% UI: 27.4%-41.1%) of stroke, and 21.0% (95% UI: 10.7%-30.3%) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for ≥ 25 years adults were attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution, which accounted for 1.235 (95% UI: 1.038-1.410) million deaths and 25.230 (95% UI: 21.770-28.600) million person years DALY in total, and increased by 33.4% and 4.0%, respectively by comparison with that in 1990 (0.926 million and 24.260 million person years). Lung cancer accounted for the largest increasing rate of 154.5% (from 0.055 million to 0.140 million) and 130.1% (from 1.330 million person years to 3.060 million person years), followed by ischemic heart disease (118.5%, from 0.130 million to 0.284 million, and 86.6%, from 3.280 million person years to 6.120 million person years) and stroke (41.0%, from 0.429 million to 0.605 million, and 33.8%, from 8.970 million person years to 12.000 million person years). The attributed mortality for both gender mostly occurred in age group of 60-79 years (male: 0.260 million and 0.404 million accounting for 53.7% and 54.8%; female: 0.214 million and 0.236 million accounting for 48.5% and 47.5%) both in 1990 and 2010. The age group of 40-79 years accounted for the most portion of attributed DALY for both gender (male: 8.458 million person years and 13.460 million person years accounting for 62.9% and 83.8%; female: 6.360 million person years and 7.152 million person years accounting for 58.9% and 78.0%). The increasing rates were higher for male than for female. The burden of disease attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution was very high in China with significant increase in mortality and disability, which indicates the highly necessity for government to take actions to reduce ambient particulate matter pollution and its health hazards.

Differential declines in syphilis-related mortality in the United States, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Barragan, Noel C; Moschetti, Kristin; Smith, Lisa V; Sorvillo, Frank; Kuo, Tony

2017-04-01

After reaching an all time low in 2000, the rate of syphilis in the United States has been steadily increasing. Parallel benchmarking of the disease's mortality burden has not been undertaken. Using ICD-10 classification, all syphilis-related deaths in the national Multiple Cause of Death dataset were examined for the period 2000-2014. Descriptive statistics and age-adjusted mortality rates were generated. Poisson regression was performed to analyze trends over time. A matched case-control analysis was conducted to assess the associations between syphilis-related deaths and comorbid conditions listed in the death records. A total of 1,829 deaths were attributed to syphilis; 32% (n = 593) identified syphilis as the underlying cause of death. Most decedents were men (60%) and either black (48%) or white (39%). Decedents aged ≥85 years had the highest average mortality rate (0.47 per 100,000 population; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.52). For the sampled period, the average annual decline in mortality was -2.90% (95% CI, -3.93% to -1.87%). However, the average annual percent change varied across subgroups of interest. Declines in U.S. syphilis mortality suggest early detection and improved treatment access likely helped attenuate disease progression; however, increases in the disease rate since 2000 may be offsetting the impact of these advancements. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying and Targeting Mortality Disparities: A Framework for Sub-Saharan Africa Using Adult Mortality Data from South Africa

PubMed Central

Sartorius, Benn; Sartorius, Kurt

2013-01-01

Background Health inequities in developing countries are difficult to eradicate because of limited resources. The neglect of adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a particular concern. Advances in data availability, software and analytic methods have created opportunities to address this challenge and tailor interventions to small areas. This study demonstrates how a generic framework can be applied to guide policy interventions to reduce adult mortality in high risk areas. The framework, therefore, incorporates the spatial clustering of adult mortality, estimates the impact of a range of determinants and quantifies the impact of their removal to ensure optimal returns on scarce resources. Methods Data from a national cross-sectional survey in 2007 were used to illustrate the use of the generic framework for SSA and elsewhere. Adult mortality proportions were analyzed at four administrative levels and spatial analyses were used to identify areas with significant excess mortality. An ecological approach was then used to assess the relationship between mortality “hotspots” and various determinants. Population attributable fractions were calculated to quantify the reduction in mortality as a result of targeted removal of high-impact determinants. Results Overall adult mortality rate was 145 per 10,000. Spatial disaggregation identified a highly non-random pattern and 67 significant high risk local municipalities were identified. The most prominent determinants of adult mortality included HIV antenatal sero-prevalence, low SES and lack of formal marital union status. The removal of the most attributable factors, based on local area prevalence, suggest that overall adult mortality could be potentially reduced by ∼90 deaths per 10,000. Conclusions The innovative use of secondary data and advanced epidemiological techniques can be combined in a generic framework to identify and map mortality to the lowest administration level. The identification of high risk mortality determinants allows health authorities to tailor interventions at local level. This approach can be replicated elsewhere. PMID:23967209

Road traffic related mortality in Vietnam: Evidence for policy from a national sample mortality surveillance system

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are among the leading causes of mortality in Vietnam. However, mortality data collection systems in Vietnam in general and for RTIs in particular, remain inconsistent and incomplete. Underlying distributions of external causes and body injuries are not available from routine data collection systems or from studies till date. This paper presents characteristics, user type pattern, seasonal distribution, and causes of 1,061 deaths attributable to road crashes ascertained from a national sample mortality surveillance system in Vietnam over a two-year period (2008 and 2009). Methods A sample mortality surveillance system was designed for Vietnam, comprising 192 communes in 16 provinces, accounting for approximately 3% of the Vietnamese population. Deaths were identified from commune level data sources, and followed up by verbal autopsy (VA) based ascertainment of cause of death. Age-standardised mortality rates from RTIs were computed. VA questionnaires were analysed in depth to derive descriptive characteristics of RTI deaths in the sample. Results The age-standardized mortality rates from RTIs were 33.5 and 8.5 per 100,000 for males and females respectively. Majority of deaths were males (79%). Seventy three percent of all deaths were aged from 15 to 49 years and 58% were motorcycle users. As high as 80% of deaths occurred on the day of injury, 42% occurred prior to arrival at hospital, and a further 29% occurred on-site. Direct causes of death were identified for 446 deaths (42%) with head injuries being the most common cause attributable to road traffic injuries overall (79%) and to motorcycle crashes in particular (78%). Conclusion The VA method can provide a useful data source to analyse RTI mortality. The observed considerable mortality from head injuries among motorcycle users highlights the need to evaluate current practice and effectiveness of motorcycle helmet use in Vietnam. The high number of deaths occurring on-site or prior to hospital admission indicates a need for effective pre-hospital first aid services and timely access to emergency facilities. In the absence of standardised death certification, sustained efforts are needed to strengthen mortality surveillance sites supplemented by VA to support evidence based monitoring and control of RTI mortality. PMID:22838959

Effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related mortality in Florida: time-series analyses from 1969 to 2004.

PubMed

Maldonado-Molina, Mildred M; Wagenaar, Alexander C

2010-11-01

Over a hundred studies have established the effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on sales and drinking behaviors. Yet, relatively few studies have examined effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related mortality. We evaluated effects of multiple changes in alcohol tax rates in the state of Florida from 1969 to 2004 on disease (not injury) mortality. A time-series quasi-experimental research design was used, including non-alcohol deaths within Florida and other states' rates of alcohol-related mortality for comparison. A total of 432 monthly observations of mortality in Florida were examined over the 36-year period. Analyses included ARIMA, fixed-effects, and random-effects models, including a noise model, tax independent variables, and structural covariates. We found significant reductions in mortality related to chronic heavy alcohol consumption following legislatively induced increases in alcohol taxes in Florida. The frequency of deaths (t = -2.73, p = 0.007) and the rate per population (t = -2.06, p = 0.04) declined significantly. The elasticity effect estimate is -0.22 (t = -1.88, p = 0.06), indicating a 10% increase in tax is associated with a 2.2% decline in deaths. Increased alcohol taxes are associated with significant and sizable reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality in Florida. Results indicate that 600 to 800 lives per year could be saved if real tax rates were returned to 1983 levels (when the last tax increase occurred). Findings highlight the role of tax policy as an effective means for reducing deaths associated with chronic heavy alcohol use. Copyright © 2010 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related mortality in Florida: Time-series analyses from 1969–2004

PubMed Central

Maldonado-Molina, Mildred M.; Wagenaar, Alexander C.

2010-01-01

Background Over a hundred studies have established the effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on sales and drinking behaviors. Yet, relatively few studies have examined effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related mortality. We evaluated effects of multiple changes in alcohol tax rates in the State of Florida from 1969–2004 on disease (not injury) mortality. Methods A time-series quasi-experimental research design was used, including non-alcohol deaths within Florida and other states’ rates of alcohol-related mortality for comparison. A total of 432 monthly observations of mortality in Florida were examined over the 36-year period. Analyses included ARIMA, fixed-effects, and random effects models, including a noise model, tax independent variables, and structural covariates. Results We found significant reductions in mortality related to chronic heavy alcohol consumption following legislatively induced increases in alcohol taxes in Florida. The frequency of deaths (t=−2.73, p=.007) and the rate per population (t=−2.06, p=.04) declined significantly. The elasticity effect estimate is −0.22 (t=−1.88, p=.06), indicating a 10% increase in tax is associated with a 2.2% decline in deaths. Conclusions Increased alcohol taxes are associated with significant and sizable reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality in Florida. Results indicate that 600–800 lives per year could be saved if real tax rates were returned to 1983 levels (when the last tax increase occurred). Findings highlight the role of tax policy as an effective means for reducing deaths associated with chronic heavy alcohol use. PMID:20659073

Causes of death among commercially insured multiple sclerosis patients in the United States.

PubMed

Goodin, Douglas S; Corwin, Michael; Kaufman, David; Golub, Howard; Reshef, Shoshana; Rametta, Mark J; Knappertz, Volker; Cutter, Gary; Pleimes, Dirk

2014-01-01

Information on causes of death (CODs) for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) in the United States is sparse and limited by standard categorizations of underlying and immediate CODs on death certificates. Prior research indicated that excess mortality among MS patients was largely due to greater mortality from infectious, cardiovascular, or pulmonary causes. To analyze disease categories in order to gain insight to pathways, which lead directly to death in MS patients. Commercially insured MS patients enrolled in the OptumInsight Research database between 1996 and 2009 were matched to non-MS comparators on age/residence at index year and sex. The cause most-directly leading to death from the death certificate, referred to as the "principal" COD, was determined using an algorithm to minimize the selection of either MS or cardiac/pulmonary arrest as the COD. Principal CODs were categorized into MS, cancer, cardiovascular, infectious, suicide, accidental, pulmonary, other, or unknown. Infectious, cardiovascular, and pulmonary CODs were further subcategorized. 30,402 MS patients were matched to 89,818 controls, with mortality rates of 899 and 446 deaths/100,000 person-years, respectively. Excluding MS, differences in mortality rate between MS patients and non-MS comparators were largely attributable to infections, cardiovascular causes, and pulmonary problems. Of the 95 excessive deaths (per 100,000 person-years) related to infectious causes, 41 (43.2%) were due to pulmonary infections and 45 (47.4%) were attributed to sepsis. Of the 46 excessive deaths (per 100,000 person-years) related to pulmonary causes, 27 (58.7%) were due to aspiration. No single diagnostic entity predominated for the 60 excessive deaths (per 100,000 person-years) attributable to cardiac CODs. The principal COD algorithm improved on other methods of determining COD in MS patients from death certificates. A greater awareness of the common CODs in MS patients will allow physicians to anticipate potential problems and, thereby, improve the care that they provide.

Measurement error affects risk estimates for recruitment to the Hudson River stock of striped bass.

PubMed

Dunning, Dennis J; Ross, Quentin E; Munch, Stephan B; Ginzburg, Lev R

2002-06-07

We examined the consequences of ignoring the distinction between measurement error and natural variability in an assessment of risk to the Hudson River stock of striped bass posed by entrainment at the Bowline Point, Indian Point, and Roseton power plants. Risk was defined as the probability that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more, relative to the equilibrium value, at least once during the time periods examined (1, 5, 10, and 15 years). Measurement error, estimated using two abundance indices from independent beach seine surveys conducted on the Hudson River, accounted for 50% of the variability in one index and 56% of the variability in the other. If a measurement error of 50% was ignored and all of the variability in abundance was attributed to natural causes, the risk that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more after 15 years was 0.308 at the current level of entrainment mortality (11%). However, the risk decreased almost tenfold (0.032) if a measurement error of 50% was considered. The change in risk attributable to decreasing the entrainment mortality rate from 11 to 0% was very small (0.009) and similar in magnitude to the change in risk associated with an action proposed in Amendment #5 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic striped bass (0.006)--an increase in the instantaneous fishing mortality rate from 0.33 to 0.4. The proposed increase in fishing mortality was not considered an adverse environmental impact, which suggests that potentially costly efforts to reduce entrainment mortality on the Hudson River stock of striped bass are not warranted.

Patterns of mortality in free-ranging California condors (Gymnogyps californianus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rideout, B.A.; Stalis, I.; Papendick, R.; Pessier, A.; Puschner, B.; Finkelstein, M.E.; Smith, D.R.; Johnson, Matthew; Mace, M.; Stroud, R.; Brandt, J.; Burnett, J.; Parish, C.; Petterson, J.; Witte, C.; Stringfield, C.; Orr, K.; Zuba, J.; Wallace, M.; Grantham, J.

2012-01-01

We document causes of death in free-ranging California Condors (Gymnogyps californianus) from the inception of the reintroduction program in 1992 through December 2009 to identify current and historic mortality factors that might interfere with establishment of self-sustaining populations in the wild. A total of 135 deaths occurred from October 1992 (the first post-release death) through December 2009, from a maximum population-at-risk of 352 birds, for a cumulative crude mortality rate of 38%. A definitive cause of death was determined for 76 of the 98 submitted cases, 70% (53/76) of which were attributed to anthropogenic causes. Trash ingestion was the most important mortality factor in nestlings (proportional mortality rate [PMR] 73%; 8/11), while lead toxicosis was the most important factor in juveniles (PMR 26%; 13/50) and adults (PMR 67%; 10/15). These results demonstrate that the leading causes of death at all California Condor release sites are anthropogenic. The mortality factors thought to be important in the decline of the historic California Condor population, particularly lead poisoning, remain the most important documented mortality factors today. Without effective mitigation, these factors can be expected to have the same effects on the sustainability of the wild populations as they have in the past.

On the Weak Mortality Returns of the Prison Boom: Comparing Infant Mortality and Homicide in the Incarceration Ledger.

PubMed

Light, Michael T; Marshall, Joey

2018-03-01

The justifications for the dramatic expansion of the prison population in recent decades have focused on public safety. Prior research on the efficacy of incarceration offers support for such claims, suggesting that increased incarceration saves lives by reducing the prevalence of homicide. We challenge this view by arguing that the effects of mass incarceration include collateral infant mortality consequences that call into question the number of lives saved through increased imprisonment. Using an instrumental variable estimation on state-level data from 1978 to 2010, this article simultaneously considers the effects of imprisonment on homicide and infant mortality to examine two of the countervailing mortality consequences of mass incarceration. Results suggest that while incarceration saves lives by lowering homicide rates, these gains are largely offset by the increases in infant mortality. Adjusted figures that count the number of increased infant deaths attributable to incarceration suggest that the mortality benefits of imprisonment over the past three decades are 82% lower than previously thought.

Contribution of smoking to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality: a study of 14 European countries, 1990-2004.

PubMed

Gregoraci, G; van Lenthe, F J; Artnik, B; Bopp, M; Deboosere, P; Kovács, K; Looman, C W N; Martikainen, P; Menvielle, G; Peters, F; Wojtyniak, B; de Gelder, R; Mackenbach, J P

2017-05-01

Smoking contributes to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, but the extent to which this contribution has changed over time and driven widening or narrowing inequalities in total mortality remains unknown. We studied socioeconomic inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality and their contribution to inequalities in total mortality in 1990-1994 and 2000-2004 in 14 European countries. We collected, harmonised and standardised population-wide data on all-cause and lung-cancer mortality by age, gender, educational and occupational level in 14 European populations in 1990-1994 and 2000-2004. Smoking-attributable mortality was indirectly estimated using the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method. In 2000-2004, smoking-attributable mortality was higher in lower socioeconomic groups in all countries among men, and in all countries except Spain, Italy and Slovenia, among women, and the contribution of smoking to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality varied between 19% and 55% among men, and between -1% and 56% among women. Since 1990-1994, absolute inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality and the contribution of smoking to inequalities in total mortality have decreased in most countries among men, but increased among women. In many European countries, smoking has become less important as a determinant of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality among men, but not among women. Inequalities in smoking remain one of the most important entry points for reducing inequalities in mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Costs of coronary heart disease and mortality associated with near-roadway air pollution.

PubMed

Brandt, Sylvia; Dickinson, Brenton; Ghosh, Rakesh; Lurmann, Frederick; Perez, Laura; Penfold, Bryan; Wilson, John; Künzli, Nino; McConnell, Rob

2017-12-01

Emerging evidence indicates that the near-roadway air pollution (NRAP) mixture contributes to CHD, yet few studies have evaluated the associated costs. We integrated an assessment of NRAP-attributable CHD in Southern California with new methods to value the associated mortality and hospitalizations. Based on population-weighted residential exposure to NRAP (traffic density, proximity to a major roadway and elemental carbon), we estimated the inflation-adjusted value of NRAP-attributable mortality and costs of hospitalizations that occurred in 2008. We also estimated anticipated costs in 2035 based on projected changes in population and in NRAP exposure associated with California's plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For comparison, we estimated the value of CHD mortality attributable to PM less than 2.5μm in diameter (PM 2.5 ) in both 2008 and 2035. The value of CHD mortality attributable to NRAP in 2008 was between $3.8 and $11.5 billion, 23% (major roadway proximity) to 68% (traffic density) of the $16.8 billion attributable to regulated regional PM 2.5 . NRAP-attributable costs were projected to increase to $10.6 to $22 billion in 2035, depending on the NRAP metric. Cost of NRAP-attributable hospitalizations for CHD in 2008 was $48.6 million and was projected to increase to $51.4 million in 2035. We developed an economic framework that can be used to estimate the benefits of regulations to improve air quality. CHD attributable to NRAP has a large economic impact that is expected to increase by 2035, largely due to an aging population. PM 2.5 -attributable costs may underestimate total value of air pollution-attributable CHD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of road traffic death rate using neural networks optimised by genetic algorithm.

PubMed

Jafari, Seyed Ali; Jahandideh, Sepideh; Jahandideh, Mina; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari

2015-01-01

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are realised as a main cause of public health problems at global, regional and national levels. Therefore, prediction of road traffic death rate will be helpful in its management. Based on this fact, we used an artificial neural network model optimised through Genetic algorithm to predict mortality. In this study, a five-fold cross-validation procedure on a data set containing total of 178 countries was used to verify the performance of models. The best-fit model was selected according to the root mean square errors (RMSE). Genetic algorithm, as a powerful model which has not been introduced in prediction of mortality to this extent in previous studies, showed high performance. The lowest RMSE obtained was 0.0808. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the use of Genetic algorithm as a powerful optimiser which selects the best input feature set to be fed into the neural networks. Seven factors have been known as the most effective factors on the road traffic mortality rate by high accuracy. The gained results displayed that our model is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better method for assessing the influence of road traffic mortality risk factors.

Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007-2011.

PubMed

Al-Thani, Mohamed H; Sadoun, Eman; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Khalifa, Shamseldin A; Sayegh, Suzan; Badawi, Alaa

2014-12-01

Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics and recent changes in disease-related mortality rates among Qatari nationals. The present study examines the population structure/dynamics and the related changes in the cause-specific mortality rates and disease prevalence in the Qatari nationals. This is a retrospective, analytic descriptive analysis covering a period of 5years (2007-2011) and utilizes a range of data sources from the State of Qatar including the population structure, disease-related mortality rates, and the prevalence of a range of chronic and infectious diseases. Factors reflecting population dynamics such as crude death (CDR), crude birth (CBR), total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality (IMR) rates were also calculated. The Qatari nationals is an expansive population with an annual growth rate of ∼4% and a stable male:female ratio. The CDR declined by 15% within the study period, whereas the CBR was almost stable. The total disease-specific death rate, however, was decreased among the Qatari nationals by 23% due to the decline in mortality rates attributed to diseases of the blood and immune system (43%), nervous system (44%) and cardiovascular system (41%). There was a high prevalence of a range of chronic diseases, whereas very low frequencies of the infectious diseases within the study population. Public health strategies, approaches and programs developed to reduce disease burden and the related death, should be tailored to target the population of Qatari nationals which exhibits characteristics that vary from the entire Qatari population. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nationwide In-hospital Mortality Following Pancreatic Surgery in Germany is Higher than Anticipated.

PubMed

Nimptsch, Ulrike; Krautz, Christian; Weber, Georg F; Mansky, Thomas; Grützmann, Robert

2016-12-01

We aimed to determine the unbiased mortality rates for pancreatic surgery procedures at the national level through a comprehensive analysis of every inpatient case in Germany. Several studies have proclaimed a general improvement of perioperative outcomes following pancreatic surgery. These results are challenged by recent analyses of large US databases that found strong volume-outcome relationships, with high mortality in low-volume facilities. All inpatient cases with a pancreatic surgery procedure code in Germany from 2009 to 2013 were identified from nationwide administrative hospital data. We determined the absolute number of patients and the in-hospital death rate for crucial subcategories such as medical indications and types of surgical procedure. A total of 58,003 inpatient episodes of pancreatic surgery were identified between 2009 and 2013. Annual case numbers increased significantly, which was primarily attributed to patients aged 70 years and older. The overall in-hospital mortality rate (10.1%) did not significantly change during the study period. Major pancreatic resections were associated with mortality ranging from 7.3% (distal pancreatectomy) to 22.9% (total pancreatectomy). Postoperative interventions indicative of severe complications were documented frequently (eg, more than 6 blood transfusions in 20% of all patients and relaparotomy in 16%). Their occurrence was associated with a dramatic increase in mortality. At the national level in Germany, perioperative mortality is higher than anticipated from previous studies. The absence of a significant reduction in overall mortality challenges current health policies that aim to improve the outcomes of high-risk surgical procedures in Germany.

Longevity in Slovenia: Past and potential gains in life expectancy by age and causes of death.

PubMed

Lotrič Dolinar, Aleša; Došenović Bonča, Petra; Sambt, Jože

2017-06-01

In Slovenia, longevity is increasing rapidly. From 1997 to 2014, life expectancy at birth increased by 7 and 5 years for men and women, respectively. This paper explores how this gain in life expectancy at birth can be attributed to reduced mortality from five major groups of causes of death by 5-year age groups. It also estimates potential future gains in life expectancy at birth. The importance of the five major causes of death was analysed by cause-elimination life tables. The total elimination of individual causes of death and a partial hypothetical adjustment of mortality to Spanish levels were analysed, along with age and cause decomposition (Pollard). During the 1997-2014 period, the increase in life expectancy at birth was due to lower mortality from circulatory diseases (ages above 60, both genders), as well as from lower mortality from neoplasms (ages above 50 years) and external causes (between 20 and 50 years) for men. However, considering the potential future gains in life expectancy at birth, by far the strongest effect can be attributed to lower mortality due to circulatory diseases for both genders. If Spanish mortality rates were reached, life expectancy at birth would increase by more than 2 years, again mainly because of lower mortality from circulatory diseases in very old ages. Life expectancy analyses can improve evidence-based decision-making and allocation of resources among different prevention programmes and measures for more effective disease management that can also reduce the economic burden of chronic diseases.

Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

2008-03-01

The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

The future of smoking-attributable mortality: the case of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands.

PubMed

Stoeldraijer, Lenny; Bonneux, Luc; van Duin, Coen; van Wissen, Leo; Janssen, Fanny

2015-02-01

We formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smoking-epidemic model. We used smoking prevalence and population-level lung cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950-2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (i) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; and (ii) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality. The SAF for men in 2009 was 19% (44 872 deaths) in England & Wales, 22% (5861 deaths) in Denmark and 25% (16 385 deaths) in the Netherlands. In our projections, these fractions decline to 6, 12 and 14%, respectively, in 2050. The SAF for women peaked at 14% (38 883 deaths) in 2008 in England & Wales, and is expected to peak in 2028 in Denmark (22%) and in 2033 in the Netherlands (23%). By 2050, a decline to 9, 17 and 19%, respectively, is foreseen. Different indirect estimation methods of the SAF in 2050 yield a range of 1-8% (England & Wales), 8-13% (Denmark) and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16, 12-26 and 13-31% for women. From northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality remains similar across countries and between sexes. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Narcotic addiction, pregnancy, and the newborn.

PubMed

Fricker, H S; Segal, S

1978-04-01

Between 1954 and 1973, 101 heroin-addicted mothers gave birth to 149 babies at Vancouver General Hospital. Thirty-seven percent of the infants had low birth weights and two thirds were born preterm. Average birth weight was 2,710 gm as compared with an overall average of 3,420 gm for this hospital. Tobacco and alcohol abuse, and poor maternal nutrition probably contributed to the growth retardation. Withdrawal symptoms were observed in 68% of the babies, and this may have been aggravated by multiple drug use, which was prevalent, including alcohol, barbiturates, and "soft drugs." Neonatal mortality rate of 6.7% and a stillbirth rate of 4% resulted in a perinatal mortality rate of 10.7%. Prematurity, respiratory distress syndrome, and other perinatal complications related to an unfavorable social background accounted for most neonatal deaths, but none was attributable directly to narcotic withdrawal.

Mental disorder and long-term risk of mortality: 41 years of follow-up of a population sample in Stockholm, Sweden.

PubMed

Lundin, A; Modig, K; Halldin, J; Carlsson, A C; Wändell, P; Theobald, H

2016-08-01

An increased mortality risk associated with mental disorder has been reported for patients, but there are few studies are based on random samples with interview-based psychiatric diagnoses. Part of the increased mortality for those with mental disorder may be attributable to worse somatic health or hazardous health behaviour - consequences of the disorder - but somatic health information is commonly lacking in psychiatric samples. This study aims to examine long-term mortality risk for psychiatric diagnoses in a general population sample and to assess mediation by somatic ill health and hazardous health behaviour. We used a double-phase stratified random sample of individuals aged 18-65 in Stockholm County 1970-1971 linked to vital records. First phase sample was 32 186 individuals screened with postal questionnaire and second phase was 1896 individuals (920 men and 976 women) that participated in a full-day examination (participation rate 88%). Baseline examination included both a semi-structured interview with a psychiatrist, with mental disorders set according to the 8th version of the International Classification of Disease (ICD-8), and clinical somatic examination, including measures of body composition (BMI), hypertension, fasting blood glucose, pulmonary function and self-reported tobacco smoking. Information on vital status was obtained from the Total Population Register for the years 1970-2011. Associations with mortality were studied with Cox proportional hazard analyses. A total of 883 deaths occurred among the participants during the 41-year follow-up. Increased mortality rates were found for ICD-8 functional psychoses (hazard ratio, HR = 2.22, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.15-4.30); psycho-organic symptoms (HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.31-2.87); depressive neuroses (HR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.23-2.39); alcohol use disorder (HR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.40-2.61); drug dependence (HR = 3.71, 95% CI: 1.80-7.65) and psychopathy (HR = 2.88, 95% CI: 1.02-8.16). Non-participants (n = 349) had mortality rates similar to participants (HR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.81-1.18). In subgroup analyses of those with psychoses, depression or alcohol use disorder, adjusting for the potential mediators smoking and pulmonary function, showed only slight changes in the HRs. This study confirms the increased risk of mortality for several psychiatric diagnoses in follow-up studies on American, Finnish and Swedish population-based samples. Only a small part of the increased mortality hazard was attributable to differences in somatic health or hazardous health behaviour measured at baseline.

Contribution of excessive alcohol consumption to deaths and years of potential life lost in the United States.

PubMed

Stahre, Mandy; Roeber, Jim; Kanny, Dafna; Brewer, Robert D; Zhang, Xingyou

2014-06-26

Excessive alcohol consumption is a leading cause of premature mortality in the United States. The objectives of this study were to update national estimates of alcohol-attributable deaths (AAD) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in the United States, calculate age-adjusted rates of AAD and YPLL in states, assess the contribution of AAD and YPLL to total deaths and YPLL among working-age adults, and estimate the number of deaths and YPLL among those younger than 21 years. We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application for 2006-2010 to estimate total AAD and YPLL across 54 conditions for the United States, by sex and age. AAD and YPLL rates and the proportion of total deaths that were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption among working-age adults (20-64 y) were calculated for the United States and for individual states. From 2006 through 2010, an annual average of 87,798 (27.9/100,000 population) AAD and 2.5 million (831.6/100,000) YPLL occurred in the United States. Age-adjusted state AAD rates ranged from 51.2/100,000 in New Mexico to 19.1/100,000 in New Jersey. Among working-age adults, 9.8% of all deaths in the United States during this period were attributable to excessive drinking, and 69% of all AAD involved working-age adults. Excessive drinking accounted for 1 in 10 deaths among working-age adults in the United States. AAD rates vary across states, but excessive drinking remains a leading cause of premature mortality nationwide. Strategies recommended by the Community Preventive Services Task Force can help reduce excessive drinking and harms related to it.

The social costs of tobacco advertising and promotions.

PubMed

Emery, S; Choi, W S; Pierce, J P

1999-01-01

Recent longitudinal evidence suggests that approximately 34% of all new tobacco experimentation occurs because of tobacco advertising and promotions. Based on this figure, in this paper we estimate the long-term impact on mortality and morbidity, as well as the economic and medical costs associated with smoking that is attributable to cigarette advertising and promotions in the United States. This study used several data sources, including the Teenage Attitudes and Practices Survey (TAPS), the 1993 and 1996 Adolescent California Tobacco Surveys (CTS), and the Food and Drug Administration's estimates of annual illness-related benefits of alternative effectiveness rates of banning tobacco advertising. Our resulting estimates are that in each year between 1988 and 1998, tobacco advertising and promotional activities generated approximately 193000 additional adult smokers who began smoking as adolescents because of advertisements and promotions. That decade of tobacco advertising and promotions will also result in approximately 46400 smoking-attributable deaths per year and 698400 years of potential life lost, which translates into costs of approximately $21.7 billion to $33.3 billion in total medical, productivity, and mortality-related costs. Even accounting for quitting behavior, each year of advertising-attributable smoking increases the number of smokers in the population. We conclude that annual costs can be expected to continue to increase if tobacco advertising and promotional activities are not effectively eliminated. If all tobacco industry advertising and promotional activities were banned for the next 25 years, nearly 60000 smoking-attributable deaths per year could be avoided, saving nearly 900000 life-years, $2.6 billion in excess medical expenses, and between $28 billion and $43 billion in mortality costs.

Impact of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea on acute care length of stay, hospital costs, and readmission: A multicenter retrospective study of inpatients, 2009-2011.

PubMed

Magee, Glenn; Strauss, Marcie E; Thomas, Sheila M; Brown, Harold; Baumer, Dorothy; Broderick, Kelly C

2015-11-01

The recent epidemiologic changes of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) have resulted in substantial economic burden to U.S. acute care hospitals. Past studies evaluating CDAD-attributable costs have been geographically and demographically limited. Here, we describe CDAD-attributable burden in inpatients, overall, and in vulnerable subpopulations from the Premier hospital database, a large, diverse cohort with a wide range of high-risk subgroups. Discharges from the Premier database were retrospectively analyzed to assess length of stay (LOS), total inpatient costs, readmission, and inpatient mortality. Patients with CDAD had significantly worse outcomes than matched controls in terms of total LOS, rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and inpatient mortality. After adjustment for risk factors, patients with CDAD had increased odds of inpatient mortality, total and ICU LOS, costs, and odds of 30-, 60- and 90-day all-cause readmission versus non-CDAD patients. CDAD-attributable costs were higher in all studied vulnerable subpopulations, which also had increased odds of 30-, 60- and 90-day all-cause readmission than those without CDAD. Given the significant economic impact CDAD has on hospitals, prevention of initial episodes and targeted therapy to prevent recurrences in vulnerable patients are essential to decrease the overall burden to hospitals. Copyright © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

POLYMORPHISMS IN THE DNA BASE EXCISION REPAIR GENES APEX1 AND XRCC1 AND LUNG CANCER RISK IN XUAN WEI, CHINA

EPA Science Inventory

The lung cancer mortality rate in Xuan Wei County is among the highest in China and has been attributed to exposure to indoor smoky coal emissions that contain very high levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Nucleotide excision repair (NER) plays a key role in revers...

Reduced Mortality of Cytomegalovirus Pneumonia After Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Due to Antiviral Therapy and Changes in Transplantation Practices

PubMed Central

Erard, Veronique; Guthrie, Katherine A.; Seo, Sachiko; Smith, Jeremy; Huang, MeeiLi; Chien, Jason; Flowers, Mary E. D.; Corey, Lawrence; Boeckh, Michael

2015-01-01

Background. Despite major advances in the prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease, the treatment of CMV pneumonia in recipients of hematopoietic cell transplant remains a significant challenge. Methods. We examined recipient, donor, transplant, viral, and treatment factors associated with overall and attributable mortality using Cox regression models. Results. Four hundred twenty-one cases were identified between 1986 and 2011. Overall survival at 6 months was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25%–34%). Outcome improved after the year 2000 (all-cause mortality: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.7 [95% CI, .5–1.0]; P = .06; attributable mortality: aHR, 0.6 [95% CI, .4–.9]; P = .01). Factors independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause and attributable mortality included female sex, elevated bilirubin, lymphopenia, and mechanical ventilation; grade 3/4 acute graft-vs-host disease was associated with all-cause mortality only. An analysis of patients who received transplants in the current preemptive therapy era (n = 233) showed only lymphopenia and mechanical ventilation as significant risk factors for overall and attributable mortality. Antiviral treatment with ganciclovir or foscarnet was associated with improved outcome compared with no antiviral treatment. However, the addition of intravenous pooled or CMV-specific immunoglobulin to antiviral treatment did not seem to improve overall or attributable mortality. Conclusions. Outcome of CMV pneumonia showed a modest improvement over the past 25 years. However, advances seem to be due to antiviral treatment and changes in transplant practices rather than immunoglobulin-based treatments. Novel treatment strategies for CMV pneumonia are needed. PMID:25778751

Mortality in Asia.

PubMed

1981-01-01

Although the general trend in mortality between 1950 and 1975 in South and East Asia has been downward, there is considerable country-to-country variation in the rate of decline. In countries where combined economic, social, and political circumstances resulted in controlling the disease spectrum (e.g., China, Malaysia, Sri Lanka), mortality levels declined to those seen in low-mortality countries. In most of the large countries of the region however, mortality declined at a slower rate, even slowing down considerably in the 1970's while the death rates remained high (e.g., India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Philippines); this slowing down of mortality level is attributed essentially to the poverty-stricken masses of society which were not able to take advantage of social, technological, and health-promoting behavioral changes conducive to mortality decline. Infant mortality levels, although declining since 1950, followed the same dismal pattern of the general mortality level. The rate varies from less than 10/1000 live births (Japan) to more than 140/1000 (Bangladesh, Laos, Nepal). Generally, rural areas exhibited higher infant mortality than urban areas. The level of child mortality declines with increases in the mother's educational level in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The largest decline in child mortality occurs when at least 1 parent has secondary education. The premature retardation of mortality decline is caused by several factors: economic development, nutrition and food supply, provision and adequacy of health services, and demographic trends. The outlook for the year 2000 for most of Asia's countries will depend heavily on significant population increases. In most countries, particularly in South Asia, population is expected to increase by 75%, much of it in rural areas and among poorer socioeconomic groups. In view of this, Asia's health planners and policymakers will have to develop health policies which will strike a balance between costs and returns of curative vs. preventive strategies. Health services will have to continue dealing with infectious diseases and will have to be redistributed geographically. Investments in health programs will produce clear economic benefits and returns for society.

High Female Survival Promotes Evolution of Protogyny and Sexual Conflict

PubMed Central

Degen, Tobias; Hovestadt, Thomas; Mitesser, Oliver; Hölker, Franz

2015-01-01

Existing models explaining the evolution of sexual dimorphism in the timing of emergence (SDT) in Lepidoptera assume equal mortality rates for males and females. The limiting assumption of equal mortality rates has the consequence that these models are only able to explain the evolution of emergence of males before females, i.e. protandry—the more common temporal sequence of emergence in Lepidoptera. The models fail, however, in providing adaptive explanations for the evolution of protogyny, where females emerge before males, but protogyny is not rare in insects. The assumption of equal mortality rates seems too restrictive for many insects, such as butterflies. To investigate the influence of unequal mortality rates on the evolution of SDT, we present a generalised version of a previously published model where we relax this assumption. We find that longer life-expectancy of females compared to males can indeed favour the evolution of protogyny as a fitness enhancing strategy. Moreover, the encounter rate between females and males and the sex-ratio are two important factors that also influence the evolution of optimal SDT. If considered independently for females and males the predicted strategies can be shown to be evolutionarily stable (ESS). Under the assumption of equal mortality rates the difference between the females’ and males’ ESS remains typically very small. However, female and male ESS may be quite dissimilar if mortality rates are different. This creates the potential for an ‘evolutionary conflict’ between females and males. Bagworm moths (Lepidoptera: Psychidae) provide an exemplary case where life-history attributes are such that protogyny should indeed be the optimal emergence strategy from the males’ and females’ perspectives: (i) Female longevity is considerably larger than that of males, (ii) encounter rates between females and males are presumably low, and (iii) females mate only once. Protogyny is indeed the general mating strategy found in the bagworm family. PMID:25775473

Survival of postfledging mallards in northcentral Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirby, Ronald E.; Sargeant, Glen A.

1999-01-01

Effective, economical management of waterfowl populations requires an understanding of age-, sex-, and cause-specific forces of mortality. We used radio telemetry to estimate survival rates of immature mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from fledging to autumn migration in northcentral Minnesota. We monitored 48 females and 42 males during 1972-74 and observed 31 deaths during 2,984 exposure-days. We attributed 7 deaths to predation and 24 to hunting. Survival rates were 0.86 (SE=0.047) for the postfledging-prehunting period, 0.29 (SE=0.107) from the onset of hunting to migration, and 0.25 (SE=0.094) for both periods combined. Natural mortality of fledged young had a negligible effect on recruitment to migration. Reducing natural mortality of fledged juvenile mallards would not have been a feasible means of increasing recruitment. Management strategies that increased nest success, increased brood survival, or decreased hunting mortality would more likely have produced meaningful gains in recruitment and are worthy subjects for continuing study. In northcentral Minnesota, changes in waterfowl habitats, predator populations, and hunting pressure have probably not changed the relative importance of hunting and nonhunting mortality to fledged juvenile mallards since our data were collected.

[Infant mortality according to color or race based on the 2010 Population Census and national health information systems in Brazil].

PubMed

Caldas, Aline Diniz Rodrigues; Santos, Ricardo Ventura; Borges, Gabriel Mendes; Valente, Joaquim Gonçalves; Portela, Margareth Crisóstomo; Marinho, Gerson Luiz

2017-08-07

The aim of this study was to investigate infant mortality data according to color or race in Brazil with a focus on indigenous individuals, based on data from the 2010 Population Census and the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) and Brazilian Information System on Live Births (SINASC). In both sources, the infant mortality rate (IMR) for indigenous individuals was the highest of all the various population segments. Although the census data indicate inequalities by color or race, the infant mortality rates for indigenous and black individuals were lower than those based on data from SIM/SINASC. Methodological specificities in the data collection in the two sources should be considered. The reduction in IMR in Brazil in recent decades is largely attributed to the priority of infant health on the policy agenda. The study's findings indicate that the impact of public policies failed to reach indigenous peoples on the same scale as in the rest of the population. New sources of nationwide data on deaths in households, as in the case of the 2010 Census, can contribute to a better understanding of inequalities by color or race in Brazil.

Burden of disease attributed to ambient air pollution in Thailand: A GIS-based approach.

PubMed

Pinichka, Chayut; Makka, Nuttapat; Sukkumnoed, Decharut; Chariyalertsak, Suwat; Inchai, Puchong; Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta

2017-01-01

Growing urbanisation and population requiring enhanced electricity generation as well as the increasing numbers of fossil fuel in Thailand pose important challenges to air quality management which impacts on the health of the population. Mortality attributed to ambient air pollution is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We estimated the spatial pattern of mortality burden attributable to selected ambient air pollution in 2009 based on the empirical evidence in Thailand. We estimated the burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution based on the comparative risk assessment (CRA) framework developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD). We integrated geographical information systems (GIS)-based exposure assessments into spatial interpolation models to estimate ambient air pollutant concentrations, the population distribution of exposure and the concentration-response (CR) relationship to quantify ambient air pollution exposure and associated mortality. We obtained air quality data from the Pollution Control Department (PCD) of Thailand surface air pollution monitoring network sources and estimated the CR relationship between relative risk (RR) and concentration of air pollutants from the epidemiological literature. We estimated 650-38,410 ambient air pollution-related fatalities and 160-5,982 fatalities that could have been avoided with a 20 reduction in ambient air pollutant concentrations. The summation of population-attributable fraction (PAF) of the disease burden for all-causes mortality in adults due to NO2 and PM2.5 were the highest among all air pollutants at 10% and 7.5%, respectively. The PAF summation of PM2.5 for lung cancer and cardiovascular disease were 16.8% and 14.6% respectively and the PAF summations of mortality attributable to PM10 was 3.4% for all-causes mortality, 1.7% for respiratory and 3.8% for cardiovascular mortality, while the PAF summation of mortality attributable to NO2 was 7.8% for respiratory mortality in Thailand. Mortality due to ambient air pollution in Thailand varies across the country. Geographical distribution estimates can identify high exposure areas for planners and policy-makers. Our results suggest that the benefits of a 20% reduction in ambient air pollution concentration could prevent up to 25% of avoidable fatalities each year in all-causes, respiratory and cardiovascular categories. Furthermore, our findings can provide guidelines for future epidemiological investigations and policy decisions to achieve the SDGs.

[Estimation of the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases mortality, life expectancy and the labor force lost in China in 2030].

PubMed

Zeng, X Y; Li, Y C; Liu, J M; Liu, Y N; Liu, S W; Qi, J L; Zhou, M G

2017-12-06

Objective: To estimate the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) mortality, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost in China in 2030. Methods: We used the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, according to the correlation between death of NCDs and exposure of risk factors and the comparative risk assessment theory, to calculate population attributable fraction (PAF) and disaggregate deaths of NCDs into parts attributable and un-attributable. We used proportional change model to project risk factors exposure and un-attributable deaths of NCDs in 2030, then to get deaths of NCDs in 2030. Simulated scenarios according to the goals of global main NCDs risk factors control proposed by WHO were constructed to calculate the impact of risk factors control on NCDs death, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost. Results: If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, compared to the numbers (8.499 million) and mortality rate (613.5/100 000) of NCDs in 2013, the death number (12.161 million) and mortality rate (859.2/100 000) would increase by 43.1% and 40.0% respectively in 2030, among which, ischemic stroke (increasing by 103.3% for death number and 98.8% for mortality rate) and ischemic heart disease (increasing by 85.0% for death number and 81.0% for mortality rate) would increase most quickly. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, the NCDs deaths would reduce 2 631 thousands. If only one risk factor gets the goal, blood pressure (1 484 thousands NCDs deaths reduction), smoking (717 thousands reduction) and BMI (274 thousands reduction) would be the most important factors affecting NCDs death. Blood pressure control would have greater impact on ischemic heart disease (662 thousands reduction) and hemorrhagic stroke (449 thousands reduction). Smoking control would have the greatest effect on lung cancer (251 thousands reduction) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (201 thousands reduction). BMI control would have the greatest impact on ischemic heart disease (86 thousands reduction) and hypertensive heart disease (45 thousands reduction). If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, in 2030, the life expectancy of Chinese population would reach to 79.0 years old, compared to 2013, increasing by 3.3 years old, the labor force at the age of 15-64 years old would loss 1.932 million. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, life expectancy would increase to 81.7 years old and the number of labor force lost would decrease to 1.467 million. Blood pressure, smoking and BMI control would have much greater impact on life expectancy (4.9, 4.0 and 3.8 years old respectively) and labor force lost (630 thousands, 496 thousands and 440 thousands respectively). Conclusion: Risk factors control would play an important role in reducing NCD death, improving life expectancy of residents and reducing loss of labor force. Among them, the control of blood pressure raising, smoking and BMI raising would have a greater contribution to the improvement of population health status.

Perceived Mortality and Perceived Morality: Perceptions of Value-Orientation Are More Likely When a Decision Is Preceded by a Mortality Reminder

PubMed Central

Nordmo, Mads; Norman, Elisabeth

2016-01-01

The questions addressed in this paper are whether and how reported mortality reminders can function as an indication of sincerity when communicating ambiguously motivated decisions. In two experiments, participants were exposed to a fictitious CEO who announced a decision to implement new organizational measures that were both environmentally and financially beneficial. In the experimental condition, the CEO attributed her new ideas to a recent mortality reminder. In the active control condition, the CEO attributed her decision to a non-lethal dentistry health scare, and in the passive control condition the CEO did not give any account of events preceding her decision. When a CEO implemented new corporate initiatives after a mortality reminder, her motivation for doing so was perceived as somewhat more motivated by intrinsic values, and significantly less motivated by financial gains. This change in attribution patterns was demonstrated to be indirectly related to a positive evaluation of the CEO, as well as an increased willingness to pay for the organization’s services. The second experiment further demonstrated that the reduced attribution to financial motivation associated with mortality awareness persisted even when the CEO in question was known for placing a high personal priority on financial goal attainment. The findings underscore the importance of perceived value-oriented motivation when communicating climate change mitigating policies, and the role of mortality awareness as one of many ways to induce such attributions. PMID:26973555

Perceived Mortality and Perceived Morality: Perceptions of Value-Orientation Are More Likely When a Decision Is Preceded by a Mortality Reminder.

PubMed

Nordmo, Mads; Norman, Elisabeth

2016-01-01

The questions addressed in this paper are whether and how reported mortality reminders can function as an indication of sincerity when communicating ambiguously motivated decisions. In two experiments, participants were exposed to a fictitious CEO who announced a decision to implement new organizational measures that were both environmentally and financially beneficial. In the experimental condition, the CEO attributed her new ideas to a recent mortality reminder. In the active control condition, the CEO attributed her decision to a non-lethal dentistry health scare, and in the passive control condition the CEO did not give any account of events preceding her decision. When a CEO implemented new corporate initiatives after a mortality reminder, her motivation for doing so was perceived as somewhat more motivated by intrinsic values, and significantly less motivated by financial gains. This change in attribution patterns was demonstrated to be indirectly related to a positive evaluation of the CEO, as well as an increased willingness to pay for the organization's services. The second experiment further demonstrated that the reduced attribution to financial motivation associated with mortality awareness persisted even when the CEO in question was known for placing a high personal priority on financial goal attainment. The findings underscore the importance of perceived value-oriented motivation when communicating climate change mitigating policies, and the role of mortality awareness as one of many ways to induce such attributions.

Decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland after socioeconomic transformation: modelling study

PubMed Central

Bandosz, Piotr; O’Flaherty, Martin; Drygas, Wojciech; Rutkowski, Marcin; Koziarek, Jacek; Wyrzykowski, Bogdan; Bennett, Kathleen; Capewell, Simon

2012-01-01

Objectives To examine how much of the observed rapid decrease in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland after the political, social, and economic transformation in the early 1990s could be explained by the use of medical and surgical treatments and how much by changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Design A modelling study. Setting Sources of data included controlled trials and meta-analyses, national surveys, and official statistics. Participants Population of adults aged 25-74 in Poland in 1991-2005. Main outcome measures Number of deaths prevented or postponed in 2005 attributable to specific treatments for coronary heart disease and changes in risk factors. A previously validated epidemiological model for coronary heart disease was used to combine and analyse data on the uptake and effectiveness of specific cardiac treatments and changes in risk factors. The observed fall in deaths from coronary heart disease from 1991 to 2005 was then partitioned among specific treatments and risk factor changes. Results From 1991 to 2005, the death rate from coronary heart disease in Poland halved, resulting in 26 200 fewer coronary deaths in 2005 in people aged 25-74. About 37% (minimum estimate 13%, maximum estimate 77%) of this decrease was attributable to treatments, including treatments for heart failure (12%), initial treatments for acute coronary syndrome (9%), secondary prevention treatments after myocardial infarction or revascularisation (7%), chronic angina treatments (3%), and other treatments (6%). About 54% of the fall was attributed to changes in risk factors (minimum estimate 41%, maximum estimate 65%), mainly reductions in total cholesterol concentration (39%) and an increase in leisuretime physical activity (10%); however, these were partially offset by increases in body mass index (−4%) and prevalence of diabetes (−2%). Blood pressure fell in women, explaining about 29% of their decrease in mortality, but rose in men generating a negative influence (−8%). About 15% of the observed decrease in mortality was attributable to reduced smoking in men but was negligible in women. Conclusions Over half of the recent fall in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland can be attributed to reductions in major risk factors and about one third to evidence based medical treatments. PMID:22279114

Annual Trends of Gastrointestinal Cancers Mortality in Iran During 1990-2015; NASBOD Study.

PubMed

Salimzadeh, Hamideh; Delavari, Farnaz; Sauvaget, Catherine; Rezaee, Negar; Delavari, Alireza; Kompani, Farzad; Rezaei, Nazila; Sheidaei, Ali; Modirian, Mitra; Haghshenas, Rosa; Chegini, Maryam; Gohari, Kimiya; Zokaiee, Hossein; Farzadfar, Farshad; Malekzadeh, Reza

2018-02-01

Gastrointestinal (GI) neoplasms are among the most common cancers in Iran. This study aimed to measure annual trends in mortality rates from GI cancers in Iran between 1990 and 2015. This study was part of an ongoing study termed the 'National and Subnational Burden of Diseases' study in Iran. Data used in this study was obtained from the Iranian Death Registration System (1995 to 2010) and from 2 major cemeteries in Tehran (1995 to 2010) and Isfahan (2007 to 2010). All-cause mortality rates were estimated using the spatio-temporal model and the Gaussian process regression model. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) per 100 000 person-years was calculated using data from Iran and the standard world population for comparison. Among GI cancers, gastric cancer represented the leading cause of mortality followed by cancers of the esophagus, liver, and colorectal cancers with the ASMR of 20.5, 5.8, 4.4, and 4.0 per 100 000 persons-years, respectively, between 1990 and 2015. While a decreasing trend occurred in mortality of esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers, particularly in the recent decade, we recorded an upward pattern and steady rise in mortality rates from liver, pancreatic, and gallbladder cancers during the study period. The ASMR of all studied causes were enhanced by advancing age and were found to be more prominent in adults aged 50 or older. Among all age-groups, higher death rates were detected in males versus females for all studied cancers except for gallbladder and biliary tract cancers. Gastric cancer mortality is still high and death rates from several other GI cancers are increasing in the nation. Interventions for cancer prevention, early detection, and access to high quality cancer treatment services are needed to reduce GI cancer burden and death rates in Iran and in the region. © 2018 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Effects of the civil war in central Mozambique and evaluation of the intervention of the International Committee of the Red Cross.

PubMed

Garenne, M L; Coninx, R; Dupuy, C

1997-12-01

In October 1994, a retrospective study of mortality of children was conducted in Maringué, a district of central Mozambique. Estimates based on maternity histories of 1503 women aged 15-60 years revealed complex changes in the under-5 death rate. During the colonial period (1955-1974), mortality declined from 373 to 270 per 1000. During the civil war period (1975-1991), mortality increased rapidly to reach a peak of 473 per 1000 in 1986. It declined again thereafter and reached a plateau of 380 in 1991. A health intervention conducted by the International Red Cross Committee since 1992 further reduced mortality to 269 per 1000 in 1994. Most of the 1992-1994 decline was attributable to vaccinations, in particular measles and tetanus immunizations, and to Vitamin A supplementation.

Longitudinal Multicenter Analysis of Outcomes After Cessation of Control Measures for Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci.

PubMed

Lemieux, Camille; Gardam, Michael; Evans, Gerald; John, Michael; Suh, Kathryn N; vanWalraven, Carl; Vicencio, Elisa; Coulby, Cameron; Roth, Virginia; Hota, Susy

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE To assess clinically relevant outcomes after complete cessation of control measures for vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE). DESIGN Quasi-experimental ecological study over 3.5 years. METHODS All VRE screening and isolation practices at 4 large academic hospitals in Ontario, Canada, were stopped on July 1, 2012. In total, 618 anonymized abstracted charts of patients with VRE-positive clinical isolates identified between July 1, 2010, and December 31, 2013, were reviewed to determine whether the case was a true VRE infection, a VRE colonization or contaminant, or a true VRE bacteremia. All deaths within 30 days of the last VRE infection were also reviewed to determine whether the death was fully or partially attributable to VRE. All-cause mortality was evaluated over the study period. Generalized estimating equation methods were used to cluster outcome rates within hospitals, and negative binomial models were created for each outcome. RESULTS The incidence rate ratio (IRR) for VRE infections was 0.59 and the associated P value was .34. For VRE bacteremias, the IRR was 0.54 and P=.38; for all-cause mortality the IRR was 0.70 and P=.66; and for VRE attributable death, the IRR was 0.35 and P=.49. VRE control measures were not significantly associated with any of the outcomes. Rates of all outcomes appeared to increase during the 18-month period after cessation of VRE control measures, but none reached statistical significance. CONCLUSION Clinically significant VRE outcomes remain rare. Cessation of all control measures for VRE had no significant attributable adverse clinical impact. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-7.

Mortality in young adults in England and Wales: the impact of the HIV epidemic.

PubMed

Nylén, G; Mortimer, J; Evans, B; Gill, N

1999-08-20

To quantify the contribution of the HIV epidemic to premature mortality in England and Wales 1985-1996. Surveillance of deaths in HIV-infected individuals and causes of death from death certificates. Time trends in age-specific mortality rates among 15-44 year olds and years of potential life lost (YPLL) to age 65 associated with HIV infection and other important causes of death in young adults. The crude age-specific mortality rates for all causes of death in the 15-44 year age band remained fairly constant between 1985 and 1996: in other age bands a decrease was seen. Deaths from both suicide and HIV increased in men aged 15-44 years. Although suicide accounted for a greater number of deaths throughout the period investigated, the largest proportional and absolute increase was seen for deaths in HIV-infected people. By 1996, the contribution of HIV to YPLL to age 65 varied from less than 0.5% in most rural localities to 20% of total YPLL in one London health authority. While part of the adverse trend in mortality in younger adults since 1985 was attributable to suicide, most resulted from HIV infection. The impact of HIV infection on mortality was greatest in London.

The effect of bovine viral diarrhea virus infections on health and performance of feedlot cattle

PubMed Central

Booker, Calvin W.; Abutarbush, Sameeh M.; Morley, Paul S.; Guichon, P. Timothy; Wildman, Brian K.; Jim, G. Kee; Schunicht, Oliver C.; Pittman, Tom J.; Perrett, Tye; Ellis, John A.; Appleyard, Greg; Haines, Deborah M.

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infections (unapparent acute infections and persistent infections) on the overall health and performance of feedlot cattle. Calves from 25 pens (7132 calves) were enrolled in the study. Overall and infectious disease mortality rates were significantly higher (P < 0.05) in pens categorized at arrival as positive for type I BVDV and lower in pens that were positive for type II BVDV than in negative pens. Mortality attributed to BVDV infection or enteritis was significantly more common (P < 0.05) in the pens containing persistently infected (PI) calves than in pens not containing PI calves (non-PI pens). There were no statistically detectable (P ≥ 0.05) differences in morbidity, overall mortality, average daily gain, or the dry matter intake to gain ratio between PI and non-PI pens. Although type-I BVDV infections in feedlots appear to contribute to higher mortality rates, the presence of PI calves alone does not appear to have a strong impact on pen-level animal health and feedlot performance. PMID:18390097

Specific abbreviated injury scale values are responsible for the underestimation of mortality in penetrating trauma patients by the injury severity score.

PubMed

Rowell, Susan E; Barbosa, Ronald R; Diggs, Brian S; Schreiber, Martin A; Holcomb, J B; Wade, C E; Brasel, K J; Vercruysse, G; MacLeod, J; Dutton, R P; Hess, J R; Duchesne, J C; McSwain, N E; Muskat, P; Johannigamn, J; Cryer, H M; Tillou, A; Cohen, M J; Pittet, J F; Knudson, P; De Moya, M A; Schreiber, M A; Tieu, B; Brundage, S; Napolitano, L M; Brunsvold, M; Sihler, K C; Beilman, G; Peitzman, A B; Zenait, M S; Sperry, J; Alarcon, L; Croce, M A; Minei, J P; Kozar, R; Gonzalez, E A; Stewart, R M; Cohn, S M; Mickalek, J E; Bulger, E M; Cotton, B A; Nunez, T C; Ivatury, R; Meredith, J W; Miller, P; Pomper, J; Marin, B

2011-08-01

The Injury Severity Score (ISS) is widely used as a method for rating severity of injury. The ISS is the sum of the squares of the three worst Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) values from three body regions. Patients with penetrating injuries tend to have higher mortality rates for a given ISS than patients with blunt injuries. This is thought to be secondary to the increased prevalence of multiple severe injuries in the same body region in patients with penetrating injuries, which the ISS does not account for. We hypothesized that the mechanism-based difference in mortality could be attributed to certain ISS ranges and specific AIS values by body region. Outcome and injury scoring data were obtained from transfused patients admitted to 23 Level I trauma centers. ISS values were grouped into categories, and a logistic regression model was created. Mortality for each ISS category was determined and compared with the ISS 1 to 15 group. An interaction term was added to evaluate the effect of mechanism. Additional logistic regression models were created to examine each AIS category individually. There were 2,292 patients in the cohort. An overall interaction between ISS and mechanism was observed (p = 0.049). Mortality rates between blunt and penetrating patients with an ISS between 25 and 40 were significantly different (23.6 vs. 36.1%; p = 0.022). Within this range, the magnitude of the difference in mortality was far higher for penetrating patients with head injuries (75% vs. 37% for blunt) than truncal injuries (26% vs. 17% for blunt). Penetrating trauma patients with an AIS head of 4 or 5, AIS abdomen of 3, or AIS extremity of 3 all had adjusted mortality rates higher than blunt trauma patients with those values. Significant differences in mortality between blunt and penetrating trauma patients exist at certain ISS and AIS category values. The mortality difference is greatest for head injured patients.

Mortality rates and the causes of death related to diabetes mellitus in Shanghai Songjiang District: an 11-year retrospective analysis of death certificates.

PubMed

Zhu, Meiying; Li, Jiang; Li, Zhiyuan; Luo, Wei; Dai, Dajun; Weaver, Scott R; Stauber, Christine; Luo, Ruiyan; Fu, Hua

2015-09-04

China is one of the countries with the highest prevalence of diabetes in the world. We analysed all the death certificates mentioning diabetes from 2002 to 2012 in Songjiang District of Shanghai to estimate morality rates and examine cause of death patterns. Mortality data of 2654 diabetics were collected from the database of local CDC. The data set comprises all causes of death, contributing causes and the underlying cause, thereby the mortality rates of diabetes and its specified complications were analysed. The leading underlying causes of death were various cardiovascular diseases (CVD), which collectively accounted for about 30% of the collected death certificates. Diabetes was determined as the underlying cause of death on 28.7%. The trends in mortality showed that the diabetes related death rate increased about 1.78 fold in the total population during the 11-year period, and the death rate of diabetes and CVD comorbidity increased 2.66 fold. In all the diabetes related deaths, the proportion of people dying of ischaemic heart disease or cerebrovascular disease increased from 18.0% in 2002 to 30.5% in 2012. But the proportions attributed directly to diabetes showed a downtrend, from 46.7-22.0%. The increasing diabetes related mortality could be chiefly due to the expanding prevalence of CVD, but has nothing to do with diabetes as the underlying cause. Policy makers should pay more attention to primary prevention of diabetes and on the prevention of cardiovascular complications to reduce the burden of diabetes on survival.

The burden of COPD mortality due to ambient air pollution in Guangzhou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Li; Yang, Jun; Song, Yun-Feng; Chen, Ping-Yan; Ou, Chun-Quan

2016-05-01

Few studies have investigated the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality fraction attributable to air pollution and modification by individual characteristics of air pollution effects. We applied distributed lag non-linear models to assess the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality in 2007-2011 in Guangzhou, China, and the total COPD mortality fraction attributable to air pollution was calculated as well. We found that an increase of 10 μg/m3 in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was associated with a 1.58% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12-3.06%), 3.45% (95% CI: 1.30-5.66%) and 2.35% (95% CI: 0.42-4.32%) increase of COPD mortality over a lag of 0-15 days, respectively. Greater air pollution effects were observed in the elderly, males and residents with low educational attainment. The results showed 10.91% (95% CI: 1.02-9.58%), 12.71% (95% CI: 5.03-19.85%) and 13.38% (95% CI: 2.67-22.84%) COPD mortality was attributable to current PM10, SO2 and NO2 exposure, respectively. In conclusion, the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality differed by individual characteristics. There were remarkable COPD mortality burdens attributable to air pollution in Guangzhou.

Estimating the Public Health Impact of Air Pollution for Informing Policy in the Twin Cities: A Minnesota Tracking Collaboration.

PubMed

Johnson, Jean E; Bael, David L; Sample, Jeannette M; Lindgren, Paula G; Kvale, Dorian L

The Minnesota Department of Health and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency used local air pollution and public health data to estimate the impacts of particulate matter and ozone on population health, to identify disparities, and to inform decisions that will improve health. While air quality in Minnesota currently meets federal standards, urban communities are concerned about the impact of air pollution on their health. The Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St Paul) metropolitan area includes 7 counties where fine particulate levels and rates of asthma exacerbations are elevated in some communities. We used the Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program) software, along with local PM2.5 (fine particulate) and ozone ambient concentrations, census and population health data, to calculate impacts for 2008 at the zip code level. The impacts were summed across all zip codes for area-wide estimates. American Community Survey data were used to stratify zip codes by poverty and race for assessment of disparities. Attributable fraction, attributable rate and counts for all-cause mortality, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations, asthma emergency department (ED) visits, and cardiovascular disease hospitalizations. In the Twin Cities (2008), air pollution was a contributing cause for an estimated 2% to 5% of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations and ED visits and between 6% and 13% of premature deaths. The elderly (aged 65+ years) experienced the highest air pollution-attributable rates of death and respiratory hospitalizations; children experienced the highest asthma ED visit rates. Geographical and demographic differences in air pollution-attributable health impacts across the region reflected the differences in the underlying morbidity and mortality rates. Method was effective in demonstrating that changes in air quality can have quantifiable health impacts across the Twin Cities. Key messages and implications from this work were shared with the media, community groups, legislators and the public. The results are being used to inform initiatives aimed at reducing sources of air pollution and to address health disparities in urban communities.

CPV Cell Infant Mortality Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosco, Nick; Sweet, Cassi; Silverman, Timothy J.; Kurtz, Sarah

2011-12-01

Six hundred and fifty CPV cells were characterized before packaging and then after a four-hour concentrated on-sun exposure. An observed infant mortality failure rate was reproduced and attributed to epoxy die-attach voiding at the corners of the cells. These voids increase the local thermal resistance allowing thermal runaway to occur under normal operating conditions in otherwise defect-free cells. FEM simulations and experiments support this hypothesis. X-ray transmission imaging of the affected assemblies was found incapable of detecting all suspect voids and therefore cannot be considered a reliable screening technique in the case of epoxy die-attach.

Is there a survival benefit within a German primary care-based disease management program?

PubMed

Miksch, Antje; Laux, Gunter; Ose, Dominik; Joos, Stefanie; Campbell, Stephen; Riens, Burgi; Szecsenyi, Joachim

2010-01-01

To compare the mortality rate of patients with type 2 diabetes who were enrolled in the German diabetes disease management program (DMP) with the mortality rate of those who were not enrolled. This observational study was part of the ELSID study (Evaluation of a Large Scale Implementation of disease management programs) in Germany. Participants had type 2 diabetes and were either enrolled or not enrolled in the DMP. The DMP provides systems-based, multifaceted, and patient-centered interventions. To reduce imbalances between the groups, a matched sample was created using sex, age, retirement status, federal state, pharmacy-based cost groups, and diagnostic-cost groups as matching criteria. Cox proportional hazards regression model and the Kaplan-Meier method were used to assess overall mortality. The observation period was 3 years beginning on January 1, 2006. A total of 11,079 patients were included in the analysis. As of January 1, 2006, 2300 patients were enrolled in the DMP and 8779 were receiving routine care. There were 1927 matched pairs of patients in the DMP group and the non-DMP group. The overall mortality rate was 11.3% in the DMP and 14.4% in the non-DMP group (log-rank test P <.01). We found an association between participation in the German diabetes DMP and reduced mortality. This reduced mortality cannot be attributed directly to the DMP. However, further research should evaluate whether a primary care-based DMP contributes to increased life expectancy in patients with diabetes.

Long-Term Exposure to Silica Dust and Risk of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Chinese Workers: A Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Chen, Weihong; Liu, Yuewei; Wang, Haijiao; Hnizdo, Eva; Sun, Yi; Su, Liangping; Zhang, Xiaokang; Weng, Shaofan; Bochmann, Frank; Hearl, Frank J.; Chen, Jingqiong; Wu, Tangchun

2012-01-01

Background Human exposure to silica dust is very common in both working and living environments. However, the potential long-term health effects have not been well established across different exposure situations. Methods and Findings We studied 74,040 workers who worked at 29 metal mines and pottery factories in China for 1 y or more between January 1, 1960, and December 31, 1974, with follow-up until December 31, 2003 (median follow-up of 33 y). We estimated the cumulative silica dust exposure (CDE) for each worker by linking work history to a job–exposure matrix. We calculated standardized mortality ratios for underlying causes of death based on Chinese national mortality rates. Hazard ratios (HRs) for selected causes of death associated with CDE were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model. The population attributable risks were estimated based on the prevalence of workers with silica dust exposure and HRs. The number of deaths attributable to silica dust exposure among Chinese workers was then calculated using the population attributable risk and the national mortality rate. We observed 19,516 deaths during 2,306,428 person-years of follow-up. Mortality from all causes was higher among workers exposed to silica dust than among non-exposed workers (993 versus 551 per 100,000 person-years). We observed significant positive exposure–response relationships between CDE (measured in milligrams/cubic meter–years, i.e., the sum of silica dust concentrations multiplied by the years of silica exposure) and mortality from all causes (HR 1.026, 95% confidence interval 1.023–1.029), respiratory diseases (1.069, 1.064–1.074), respiratory tuberculosis (1.065, 1.059–1.071), and cardiovascular disease (1.031, 1.025–1.036). Significantly elevated standardized mortality ratios were observed for all causes (1.06, 95% confidence interval 1.01–1.11), ischemic heart disease (1.65, 1.35–1.99), and pneumoconiosis (11.01, 7.67–14.95) among workers exposed to respirable silica concentrations equal to or lower than 0.1 mg/m3. After adjustment for potential confounders, including smoking, silica dust exposure accounted for 15.2% of all deaths in this study. We estimated that 4.2% of deaths (231,104 cases) among Chinese workers were attributable to silica dust exposure. The limitations of this study included a lack of data on dietary patterns and leisure time physical activity, possible underestimation of silica dust exposure for individuals who worked at the mines/factories before 1950, and a small number of deaths (4.3%) where the cause of death was based on oral reports from relatives. Conclusions Long-term silica dust exposure was associated with substantially increased mortality among Chinese workers. The increased risk was observed not only for deaths due to respiratory diseases and lung cancer, but also for deaths due to cardiovascular disease. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22529751

Motor neuron disease mortality and lifetime petrol lead exposure: Evidence from national age-specific and state-level age-standardized death rates in Australia.

PubMed

Zahran, Sammy; Laidlaw, Mark A S; Rowe, Dominic B; Ball, Andrew S; Mielke, Howard W

2017-02-01

The age standardized death rate from motor neuron disease (MND) for persons 40-84 years of age in the Australian States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland increased dramatically from 1958 to 2013. Nationally, age-specific MND death rates also increased over this time period, but the rate of the rise varied considerably by age-group. The historic use of lead (Pb) additives in Australian petrol is a candidate explanation for these trends in MND mortality (International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 G12.2). Leveraging temporal and spatial variation in petrol lead exposure risk resulting from the slow rise and rapid phase-out of lead as a constituent in gasoline in Australia, we analyze relationships between (1) national age-specific MND death rates in Australia and age-specific lifetime petrol lead exposure, (2) annual between-age dispersions in age-specific MND death rates and age-specific lifetime petrol lead exposure; and (3) state-level age-standardized MND death rates as a function of age-weighted lifetime petrol lead exposure. Other things held equal, we find that a one percent increase in lifetime petrol lead exposure increases the MND death rate by about one-third of one percent in both national age-specific and state-level age-standardized models of MND mortality. Lending support to the supposition that lead exposure is a driver of MND mortality risk, we find that the annual between-age group standard deviation in age-specific MND death rates is strongly correlated with the between-age standard deviation in age-specific lifetime petrol lead exposure. Legacy petrol lead emissions are associated with age-specific MND death rates as well as state-level age-standardized MND death rates in Australia. Results indicate that we are approaching peak lead exposure-attributable MND mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attributable causes of cancer in Japan in 2005--systematic assessment to estimate current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan.

PubMed

Inoue, M; Sawada, N; Matsuda, T; Iwasaki, M; Sasazuki, S; Shimazu, T; Shibuya, K; Tsugane, S

2012-05-01

To contribute to evidence-based policy decision making for national cancer control, we conducted a systematic assessment to estimate the current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan in 2005. We first estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of each cancer attributable to known risk factors from relative risks derived primarily from Japanese pooled analyses and large-scale cohort studies and the prevalence of exposure in the period around 1990. Using nationwide vital statistics records and incidence estimates, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2005. In 2005, ≈ 55% of cancer among men was attributable to preventable risk factors in Japan. The corresponding figure was lower among women, but preventable risk factors still accounted for nearly 30% of cancer. In men, tobacco smoking had the highest PAF (30% for incidence and 35% for mortality, respectively) followed by infectious agents (23% and 23%). In women, in contrast, infectious agents had the highest PAF (18% and 19% for incidence and mortality, respectively) followed by tobacco smoking (6% and 8%). In Japan, tobacco smoking and infections are major causes of cancer. Further control of these factors will contribute to substantial reductions in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.

Trends in mortality burden of hepatocellular carcinoma, cirrhosis, and fulminant hepatitis before and after roll-out of the first pilot vaccination program against hepatitis B in Peru: An analysis of death certificate data.

PubMed

Ramírez-Soto, Max Carlos; Ortega-Cáceres, Gutia; Cabezas, César

2017-07-05

The first pilot vaccination program against hepatitis B in Peru was implemented in the hyperendemic Abancay province in 1991. To assess the impact of vaccination on mortality rates of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cirrhosis, and fulminant hepatitis, we compared mortality trends before (1960-1990) and after (1991-2012) roll-out of the vaccination program, using death certificate data from the Municipalidad Provincial de Abancay. Our results showed that, following program roll-out, the overall mortality rates (per 100,000 population) decreased from 9.20 to 3.30 for HCC (95% CI, 1.28-10.48%; P<0.014), from 16.0 to 6.3 for cirrhosis (95% CI, 3.20-16.10%; P<0.004), and from 34.80 to 1.28 for fulminant hepatitis (95% CI, 16.70-50.30%; P<0.001). The absolute number of deaths attributable to cirrhosis (10 [8.80%] vs. 0.0%; P<0.001) and fulminant hepatitis (83 [40.0%] vs. 5 [19.20%]; P<0.026) decreased in 5-14-year-old children following vaccination. These findings showed reduced mortality rates of hepatitis B-related liver diseases, particularly cirrhosis and fulminant hepatitis in children under 15years, following implementation of the vaccination program against hepatitis B. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme mortality after first introduction of measles virus to the polynesian island of Rotuma, 1911.

PubMed

Shanks, G Dennis; Lee, Seung-Eun; Howard, Alan; Brundage, John F

2011-05-15

Rotuma is an isolated Polynesian island. In January 1911, most residents of Rotuma (population approximately 2,600) were exposed to measles virus for the first time. The official mortality register documented 491 deaths due to all causes among Rotumans during 1911 (cumulative measles-related mortality: 12.8%); most deaths occurred in April-May and were attributed to measles and its sequelae. Measles-related mortality rates were higher among young children (23.4 per 100 person-years) and young adults (17.1 per 100 person-years) than among adolescents (11.0 per 100 person-years) and older adults (5.6 per 100 person-years); females (16.2 per 100 person-years) died at a higher rate than males (13.2 per 100 person-years). Gastrointestinal complications (75%), not respiratory complications, were the predominant clinical manifestations of fatal measles cases; tuberculosis mortality was unusually high during the year of the epidemic. In 1911, measles-related mortality varied by nearly 3-fold across geographic districts (range, 7.4%-21.6%). The extreme mortality due to measles on Rotuma typifies the experiences of isolated populations after first encounters with measles; it suggests that prior exposures to a narrow range of microbes and genetic homogeneity predispose isolated populations to lethal outcomes when they are first exposed to highly contagious and pathogenic viruses (e.g., measles, influenza).

The Huge Reduction in Adult Male Mortality in Belarus and Russia: Is It Attributable to Anti-Alcohol Measures?

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background and Aim Harmful alcohol consumption has long been recognized as being the major determinant of male premature mortality in the European countries of the former USSR. Our focus here is on Belarus and Russia, two Slavic countries which continue to suffer enormously from the burden of the harmful consumption of alcohol. However, after a long period of deterioration, mortality trends in these countries have been improving over the past decade. We aim to investigate to what extent the recent declines in adult mortality in Belarus and Russia are attributable to the anti-alcohol measures introduced in these two countries in the 2000s. Data and Methods We rely on the detailed cause-specific mortality series for the period 1980–2013. Our analysis focuses on the male population, and considers only a limited number of causes of death which we label as being alcohol-related: accidental poisoning by alcohol, liver cirrhosis, ischemic heart diseases, stroke, transportation accidents, and other external causes. For each of these causes we computed age-standardized death rates. The life table decomposition method was used to determine the age groups and the causes of death responsible for changes in life expectancy over time. Conclusion Our results do not lead us to conclude that the schedule of anti-alcohol measures corresponds to the schedule of mortality changes. The continuous reduction in adult male mortality seen in Belarus and Russia cannot be fully explained by the anti-alcohol policies implemented in these countries, although these policies likely contributed to the large mortality reductions observed in Belarus and Russia in 2005–2006 and in Belarus in 2012. Thus, the effects of these policies appear to have been modest. We argue that the anti-alcohol measures implemented in Belarus and Russia simply coincided with fluctuations in alcohol-related mortality which originated in the past. If these trends had not been underway already, these huge mortality effects would not have occurred. PMID:26376439

The Huge Reduction in Adult Male Mortality in Belarus and Russia: Is It Attributable to Anti-Alcohol Measures?

PubMed

Grigoriev, Pavel; Andreev, Evgeny M

2015-01-01

Harmful alcohol consumption has long been recognized as being the major determinant of male premature mortality in the European countries of the former USSR. Our focus here is on Belarus and Russia, two Slavic countries which continue to suffer enormously from the burden of the harmful consumption of alcohol. However, after a long period of deterioration, mortality trends in these countries have been improving over the past decade. We aim to investigate to what extent the recent declines in adult mortality in Belarus and Russia are attributable to the anti-alcohol measures introduced in these two countries in the 2000s. We rely on the detailed cause-specific mortality series for the period 1980-2013. Our analysis focuses on the male population, and considers only a limited number of causes of death which we label as being alcohol-related: accidental poisoning by alcohol, liver cirrhosis, ischemic heart diseases, stroke, transportation accidents, and other external causes. For each of these causes we computed age-standardized death rates. The life table decomposition method was used to determine the age groups and the causes of death responsible for changes in life expectancy over time. Our results do not lead us to conclude that the schedule of anti-alcohol measures corresponds to the schedule of mortality changes. The continuous reduction in adult male mortality seen in Belarus and Russia cannot be fully explained by the anti-alcohol policies implemented in these countries, although these policies likely contributed to the large mortality reductions observed in Belarus and Russia in 2005-2006 and in Belarus in 2012. Thus, the effects of these policies appear to have been modest. We argue that the anti-alcohol measures implemented in Belarus and Russia simply coincided with fluctuations in alcohol-related mortality which originated in the past. If these trends had not been underway already, these huge mortality effects would not have occurred.

The contribution of education, social class and economic activity to the income-mortality association in alcohol-related and other mortality in Finland in 1988-2012.

PubMed

Tarkiainen, Lasse; Martikainen, Pekka; Laaksonen, Mikko

2016-03-01

First, to quantify trends in the contribution of alcohol-related mortality to mortality disparity in Finland by income quintiles. Secondly, to estimate the degree to which education, social class and economic activity explain the income-mortality association in alcohol-related and other mortality in four periods within 1988-2012. Register-based longitudinal study using an 11% random sample of Finnish residents linked to socio-economic and mortality data in 1988-2012 augmented with an 80% sample of all deaths during 1988-2007. Mortality rates and discrete time survival regression models were used to assess the income-mortality association following adjustment for covariates in 6-year periods after baseline years of 1988, 1994, 2001, and 2007. Finland. Individuals aged 35-64 years at baselines. For the four study periods for men/women, the final data set comprised, respectively, 26,360/12,825, 22,561/11,423, 20,342/11,319 and 2651/1514 deaths attributable to other causes and 7517/1217, 8199/1450, 9807/2116, 1431/318 deaths attributable to alcohol-related causes. Alcohol-related deaths were analysed with household income, education, social class and economic activity as covariates. The income disparity in mortality originated increasingly from alcohol-related causes of death, in the lowest quintile the contribution increasing from 28 to 49% among men and from 11 to 28% among women between periods 1988-93 and 2007-12. Among men, socio-economic characteristics attenuated the excess mortality during each study period in the lowest income quintile by 51-62% in alcohol-related and other causes. Among women, in the lowest quintile the attenuation was 47-76% in other causes, but there was a decreasing tendency in the proportion explained by the covariates in alcohol-related mortality. The income disparity in mortality among working-age Finns originates increasingly from alcohol-related causes of death. Roughly half the excess mortality in the lowest income quintile during 2007-12 is explained by the covariates of household income, education, social class and economic activity. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Mortality after a diagnosis of dementia in a population aged 75 and over in Spain.

PubMed

Llinàs-Regla, Jordi; López-Pousa, Secundino; Vilalta-Franch, Joan; Garre-Olmo, Josep; Román, Gustavo C

2008-01-01

To examine the impact of incident dementia on the risk of death, taking into account other chronic illnesses potentially related to death. Six-year, prospective, two-phase, observational cohort study. 8 municipalities from a rural area in Girona (Spain). A representative community-based cohort of 1,153 adults aged over 70 living at home at study enrolment. Surviving participants underwent detailed clinical evaluation and were assessed by means of the Cambridge Examination for Mental Disorders of the Elderly. Relatives of deceased participants were interviewed using the Retrospective Collateral Dementia Interview. Mortality rates and relative risk of death for subjects with a diagnosis of dementia were calculated. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the relationship between mortality and the diagnosis of dementia. In this cohort, 40.0% (n = 49) of the subjects with a diagnosis of dementia died. The mortality rate specific to dementia was 1.0 per 100 person-years. Mortality risk ratios for dementia were 1.79 in men [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-3.02], and 3.14 in women (95% CI = 2.04-4.85). The population death risk attributable to the diagnosis of dementia in our cohort was 11.8%. The most important mortality risks were severe dementia (hazard ratio = 5.7, 95% CI = 3.7-8.6), cancer (hazard ratio = 3.2, 95% CI = 2.2-4.5), heart disease, and an age over 85 (hazard ratio = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1-1.9). Dementia is a major risk factor for death in advanced age, with the highest mortality rates in women. Moderate and severe dementia was associated with an increased mortality risk even after appropriate control of comorbid conditions. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Mortality and morbidity due to exposure to outdoor air pollution in Mashhad metropolis, Iran. The AirQ model approach.

PubMed

Miri, Mohammad; Derakhshan, Zahra; Allahabadi, Ahmad; Ahmadi, Ehsan; Oliveri Conti, Gea; Ferrante, Margherita; Aval, Hamideh Ebrahimi

2016-11-01

In the past two decades, epidemiological studies have shown that air pollution is one of the causes of morbidity and mortality. In this study the effect of PM10, PM2.5, NO2, SO2 and O3 pollutants on human health among the inhabitants of Mashhad has been evaluated. To evaluate the health effects due to air pollution, the AirQ model software 3.3.2, developed by WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, was used. The daily data related to the pollutants listed above has been used for the short term health effects (total mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, hospitalization due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and acute myocardial infarction). PM2.5 had the most health effects on Mashhad inhabitants. With increasing in each 10μg/m3, relative risk rate of pollutant concentration for total mortality due to PM10, PM2.5, SO 2 , NO 2 and O 3 was increased of 0.6%, 1.5%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.46% respectively and, the attributable proportion of total mortality attributed to these pollutants was respectively equal to 4.24%, 4.57%, 0.99%, 2.21%, 2.08%, and 1.61% (CI 95%) of the total mortality (correct for the non-accident) occurred in the year of study. The results of this study have a good compatibly with other studies conducted on the effects of air pollution on humans. The AirQ software model can be used in decision-makings as a useful and easy tool. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative Impact of Surgeon and Hospital Volume on Operative Mortality and Complications Following Pancreatic Resection in Medicare Patients

PubMed Central

Mehta, Hemalkumar B.; Parmar, Abhishek D.; Adhikari, Deepak; Tamirisa, Nina P.; Dimou, Francesca; Jupiter, Daniel; Riall, Taylor S.

2016-01-01

Background Surgeon and hospital volume are both known to affect outcomes for patients undergoing pancreatic resection. The objective was to evaluate the relative effects of surgeon and hospital volume on 30-day mortality and 30-day complications after pancreatic resection among older patients. Materials and Methods The study used Texas Medicare data (2000–2012), identifying high-volume surgeons as those performing ≥4 pancreatic resections/year, and high-volume hospitals as those performing ≥11 pancreatic resections/year, on Medicare patients. Three-level hierarchical logistic regression models were used to evaluate the relative effects of surgeon and hospital volumes on mortality and complications, after adjusting for case mix differences. Results There were 2,453 pancreatic resections performed by 490 surgeons operating in 138 hospitals. 4.5% of surgeons and 6.5% of hospitals were high-volume. The overall 30-day mortality was 9.0%, and the 30-day complication rate was 40.6%. Overall, 8.9% of the variance in 30-day mortality was attributed to surgeon factors and 9.8% to hospital factors. For 30-day complications, 4.7% of the variance was attributed to surgeon factors and 1.2% to hospital factors. After adjusting for patient, surgeon and hospital characteristics, high surgeon volume (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.33–0.87) and high hospital volume (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.30–0.92) were associated with lower risk of mortality; high surgeon volume (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55–0.93) was also associated lower risk of 30-day complications. Conclusions Both hospital and surgeon factors contributed significantly to the observed variance in mortality, but only surgeon factors impacted complications. PMID:27565068

Benchmarking life expectancy and cancer mortality: global comparison with cardiovascular disease 1981-2010

PubMed Central

Bray, Freddie; Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; Ginsburg, Ophira; Soneji, Samir; Soerjomataram, Isabelle

2017-01-01

Objective To quantify the impact of cancer (all cancers combined and major sites) compared with cardiovascular disease (CVD) on longevity worldwide during 1981-2010. Design Retrospective demographic analysis using aggregated data. Setting National civil registration systems in member states of the World Health Organization. Participants 52 populations with moderate to high quality data on cause specific mortality. Main outcome measures Disease specific contributions to changes in life expectancy in ages 40-84 (LE40-84) over time in populations grouped by two levels of Human Development Index (HDI) values. Results Declining CVD mortality rates during 1981-2010 contributed to, on average, over half of the gains in LE40-84; the corresponding gains were 2.3 (men) and 1.7 (women) years, and 0.5 (men) and 0.8 (women) years in very high and medium and high HDI populations, respectively. Declines in cancer mortality rates contributed to, on average, 20% of the gains in LE40-84, or 0.8 (men) and 0.5 (women) years in very high HDI populations, and to over 10% or 0.2 years (both sexes) in medium and high HDI populations. Declining lung cancer mortality rates brought about the largest LE40-84 gain in men in very high HDI populations (up to 0.7 years in the Netherlands), whereas in medium and high HDI populations its contribution was smaller yet still positive. Among women, declines in breast cancer mortality rates were largely responsible for the improvement in longevity, particularly among very high HDI populations (up to 0.3 years in the United Kingdom). In contrast, losses in LE40-84 were observed in many medium and high HDI populations as a result of increasing breast cancer mortality rates. Conclusions The control of CVD has led to substantial gains in LE40-84 worldwide. The inequality in improvement in longevity attributed to declining cancer mortality rates reflects inequities in implementation of cancer control, particularly in less resourced populations and in women. Global actions are needed to revitalize efforts for cancer control, with a specific focus on less resourced countries. PMID:28637656

Mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults (The ELSA and Bambui cohort ageing studies)

PubMed Central

Marmot, Michael G.; Demakakos, Panayotes; Vaz de Melo Mambrini, Juliana; Peixoto, Sérgio Viana; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda

2016-01-01

Background: The main aim of this study was to quantify and compare 6-year mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults. This study represents a rare opportunity to approach the subject in two different social and economic contexts. Methods: Data from the data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing (Brazil) were used. Deaths in both cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Risk factors considered in this study were baseline smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Both age–sex adjusted hazard ratios and population attributable risks (PAR) of all-cause mortality and their 95% confidence intervals for the association between risk factors and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Participants were 3205 English and 1382 Brazilians aged 60 years and over. First, Brazilians showed much higher absolute risk of mortality than English and this finding was consistent in all age, independently of sex. Second, as a rule, hazard ratios for mortality to smoking, hypertension and diabetes showed more similarities than differences between these two populations. Third, there was strong difference among English and Brazilians on attributable deaths to hypertension. Conclusions: The findings indicate that, despite of being in more recent transitions, the attributable deaths to one or more risk factors was twofold among Brazilians relative to the English. These findings call attention for the challenge imposed to health systems to prevent and treat non-communicable diseases, particularly in populations with low socioeconomic level. PMID:26666869

The induction of parturition using dexamethasone.

PubMed

Allen, J G; Herring, J

1976-10-01

Premature parturition was successfully induced with a preparation containing 2 dexamethasone esters in 709 out of 716 cows and heifers of gestational periods ranging from 3 to 8 months. A mortality rate of 38.5% was experienced among calves produced by induced cows, while only a 2.7% mortality rate occurred among 4,330 calves from normal parturitions. Approximately 50% of all treated cattle retained foetal membranes, but with apparently no ill-effect. The treatment apparently did not affect milk production, post-calving fertility, and the overall incidence of dystocias in cows and post-calving diseases. Three deaths occurred among induced cattle, but they could not be attributed to the treatment. It was concluded that the technique may prove to be of great value in dairy cattle, in seasonal milking areas.

Experimental missile wound to the brain.

PubMed

Carey, M E; Sarna, G S; Farrell, J B; Happel, L T

1989-11-01

Among civilians in the United States, 33,000 gunshot wound deaths occur each year; probably half of these involve the head. In combat, head wounds account for approximately half of the immediate mortality when death can be attributed to a single wound. No significant reduction in the neurosurgical mortality associated with these wounds has occurred between World War II and the Vietnam conflict, and very little research into missile wounds of the brain has been undertaken. An experimental model has been developed in the anesthetized cat whereby a ballistic injury to the brain may be painlessly reproduced in order that the pathophysiological effects of brain wounding may be studied and better treatments may be designed to lower the mortality and morbidity rates associated with gunshot wounds. Prominent among physiological effects observed in this model was respiratory arrest even though the missile did not injure the brain stem directly. The incidence of prolonged respiratory arrest increased with increasing missile energy, but arrest was often reversible provided respiratory support was given. It is possible that humans who receive a brain wound die from missile-induced apnea instead of brain damage per se. The mortality rate in humans with brain wounding might be reduced by prompt respiratory support. Brain wounding was associated with persistently increased intracranial pressure and reduced cerebral perfusion pressure not entirely attributable to intracranial bleeding. The magnitude of these derangements appeared to be missile energy-dependent and approached dangerous levels in higher-energy wounds. All wounded cats exhibited postwounding increases in blood glucose concentrations consistent with a generalized stress reaction. A transient rise in hematocrit also occurred immediately after wounding. Both of these phenomena could prove deleterious to optimal brain function after injury.

Rheumatic Heart Disease-Attributable Mortality at Ages 5-69 Years in Fiji: A Five-Year, National, Population-Based Record-Linkage Cohort Study.

PubMed

Parks, Tom; Kado, Joseph; Miller, Anne E; Ward, Brenton; Heenan, Rachel; Colquhoun, Samantha M; Bärnighausen, Till W; Mirabel, Mariana; Bloom, David E; Bailey, Robin L; Tukana, Isimeli N; Steer, Andrew C

2015-01-01

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is considered a major public health problem in developing countries, although scarce data are available to substantiate this. Here we quantify mortality from RHD in Fiji during 2008-2012 in people aged 5-69 years. Using 1,773,999 records derived from multiple sources of routine clinical and administrative data, we used probabilistic record-linkage to define a cohort of 2,619 persons diagnosed with RHD, observed for all-cause mortality over 11,538 person-years. Using relative survival methods, we estimated there were 378 RHD-attributable deaths, almost half of which occurred before age 40 years. Using census data as the denominator, we calculated there were 9.9 deaths (95% CI 9.8-10.0) and 331 years of life-lost (YLL, 95% CI 330.4-331.5) due to RHD per 100,000 person-years, standardised to the portion of the WHO World Standard Population aged 0-69 years. Valuing life using Fiji's per-capita gross domestic product, we estimated these deaths cost United States Dollar $6,077,431 annually. Compared to vital registration data for 2011-2012, we calculated there were 1.6-times more RHD-attributable deaths than the number reported, and found our estimate of RHD mortality exceeded all but the five leading reported causes of premature death, based on collapsed underlying cause-of-death diagnoses. Rheumatic heart disease is a leading cause of premature death as well as an important economic burden in this setting. Age-standardised death rates are more than twice those reported in current global estimates. Linkage of routine data provides an efficient tool to better define the epidemiology of neglected diseases.

Burden of disease attributed to ambient air pollution in Thailand: A GIS-based approach

PubMed Central

Pinichka, Chayut; Makka, Nuttapat; Sukkumnoed, Decharut; Chariyalertsak, Suwat; Inchai, Puchong

2017-01-01

Background Growing urbanisation and population requiring enhanced electricity generation as well as the increasing numbers of fossil fuel in Thailand pose important challenges to air quality management which impacts on the health of the population. Mortality attributed to ambient air pollution is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We estimated the spatial pattern of mortality burden attributable to selected ambient air pollution in 2009 based on the empirical evidence in Thailand. Methods We estimated the burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution based on the comparative risk assessment (CRA) framework developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD). We integrated geographical information systems (GIS)-based exposure assessments into spatial interpolation models to estimate ambient air pollutant concentrations, the population distribution of exposure and the concentration-response (CR) relationship to quantify ambient air pollution exposure and associated mortality. We obtained air quality data from the Pollution Control Department (PCD) of Thailand surface air pollution monitoring network sources and estimated the CR relationship between relative risk (RR) and concentration of air pollutants from the epidemiological literature. Results We estimated 650–38,410 ambient air pollution-related fatalities and 160–5,982 fatalities that could have been avoided with a 20 reduction in ambient air pollutant concentrations. The summation of population-attributable fraction (PAF) of the disease burden for all-causes mortality in adults due to NO2 and PM2.5 were the highest among all air pollutants at 10% and 7.5%, respectively. The PAF summation of PM2.5 for lung cancer and cardiovascular disease were 16.8% and 14.6% respectively and the PAF summations of mortality attributable to PM10 was 3.4% for all-causes mortality, 1.7% for respiratory and 3.8% for cardiovascular mortality, while the PAF summation of mortality attributable to NO2 was 7.8% for respiratory mortality in Thailand. Conclusion Mortality due to ambient air pollution in Thailand varies across the country. Geographical distribution estimates can identify high exposure areas for planners and policy-makers. Our results suggest that the benefits of a 20% reduction in ambient air pollution concentration could prevent up to 25% of avoidable fatalities each year in all-causes, respiratory and cardiovascular categories. Furthermore, our findings can provide guidelines for future epidemiological investigations and policy decisions to achieve the SDGs. PMID:29267319

The burden of COPD mortality due to ambient air pollution in Guangzhou, China

PubMed Central

Li, Li; Yang, Jun; Song, Yun-Feng; Chen, Ping-Yan; Ou, Chun-Quan

2016-01-01

Few studies have investigated the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality fraction attributable to air pollution and modification by individual characteristics of air pollution effects. We applied distributed lag non-linear models to assess the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality in 2007–2011 in Guangzhou, China, and the total COPD mortality fraction attributable to air pollution was calculated as well. We found that an increase of 10 μg/m3 in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was associated with a 1.58% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12–3.06%), 3.45% (95% CI: 1.30–5.66%) and 2.35% (95% CI: 0.42–4.32%) increase of COPD mortality over a lag of 0–15 days, respectively. Greater air pollution effects were observed in the elderly, males and residents with low educational attainment. The results showed 10.91% (95% CI: 1.02–9.58%), 12.71% (95% CI: 5.03–19.85%) and 13.38% (95% CI: 2.67–22.84%) COPD mortality was attributable to current PM10, SO2 and NO2 exposure, respectively. In conclusion, the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality differed by individual characteristics. There were remarkable COPD mortality burdens attributable to air pollution in Guangzhou. PMID:27195597

Ventilator-associated pneumonia in neonatal and pediatric intensive care unit patients.

PubMed

Foglia, Elizabeth; Meier, Mary Dawn; Elward, Alexis

2007-07-01

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the second most common hospital-acquired infection among pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Empiric therapy for VAP accounts for approximately 50% of antibiotic use in pediatric ICUs. VAP is associated with an excess of 3 days of mechanical ventilation among pediatric cardiothoracic surgery patients. The attributable mortality and excess length of ICU stay for patients with VAP have not been defined in matched case control studies. VAP is associated with an estimated $30,000 in attributable cost. Surveillance for VAP is complex and usually performed using clinical definitions established by the CDC. Invasive testing via bronchoalveolar lavage increases the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnosis. The pathogenesis in children is poorly understood, but several prospective cohort studies suggest that aspiration and immunodeficiency are risk factors. Educational interventions and efforts to improve adherence to hand hygiene for children have been associated with decreased VAP rates. Studies of antibiotic cycling in pediatric patients have not consistently shown this measure to prevent colonization with multidrug-resistant gram-negative rods. More consistent and precise approaches to the diagnosis of pediatric VAP are needed to better define the attributable morbidity and mortality, pathophysiology, and appropriate interventions to prevent this disease.

Health Improvements Have Been More Rapid and Widespread in China than in India: A Comparative Analysis of Health and Socioeconomic Trends from 1960 to 2011

PubMed Central

Singh, Gopal K.; Liu, Jihong

2012-01-01

Objectives We examined differences between China and India in key health and socioeconomic indicators, including life expectancy, infant and child mortality, non-communicable disease mortality from cancer, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and diabetes, Human Development Index, Gender Inequality Index, material living conditions, and health expenditure. Methods Data on health and social indicators came from various World Health Organization and United Nations databases on global health and development statistics, including the GLOBOCAN cancer database. Mortality trends were modeled by log-linear regression, and differences in rates and relative risks were tested for statistical significance. Results Although both countries have made marked improvements, India lags behind China on several key health indicators. Differential rates of mortality decline during 1960-2009 have led to a widening health gap between China and India. In 2009 the infant mortality rate in India was 50 deaths per 1,000 live births, 3 times greater than the rate for China. Sixty-six out of 1,000 Indian children died before reaching their 5th birthday, compared with 19 children in China. China’s life expectancy is 9 years longer than India’s. Life expectancy at birth in India increased from 42 years in 1960 to 65 years in 2009, while life expectancy in China increased from 47 years in 1960 to 74 years in 2009. Major health concerns for China include high rates of stomach, liver, and lung cancer, CVD, and smoking prevalence. Globally, India ranked 90th and China 102nd in life satisfaction. Conclusions and Public Health Implications India’s less favorable health profile compared to China is largely attributable to its higher rates of mortality from communicable diseases and maternal and perinatal conditions. Further health gains can be achieved by reducing social inequality, greater investments in human development and health services, and by prevention and control of chronic-disease risks such as hypertension, smoking, obesity, and physical inactivity. PMID:27621957

Framing effects in medical situations: distinctions of attribute, goal and risky choice frames.

PubMed

Peng, Jiaxi; Jiang, Yuan; Miao, Danmin; Li, Rui; Xiao, Wei

2013-06-01

To verify whether three different framing effects (risky choice, attribute and goal) exist in simulated medical situations and to analyse any differences. Medical decision-making problems were established, relating to medical skill evaluation, patient compliance and a selection of treatment options. All problems were described in positive and negative frame conditions. Significantly more positive evaluations were made if the doctor's medical records were described as 'of 100 patients, 70 patients became better' compared with those described as 'of 100 patients, 30 patients didn't become better'. Doctor's advice described in a negative frame resulted in significantly more decisions to comply, compared with advice described in a positive frame. Treatment options described in terms of survival rates resulted in significantly more adventurous choices compared with options described in terms of mortality rates. Decision-making reversal appeared in the risky choice and attribute frames, but not the goal frame. Framing effects were shown to exist in simulated medical situations, but there were significant differences among the three kinds of such effects.

Critically ill children with pandemic influenza (H1N1) in pediatric intensive care units in Turkey.

PubMed

Kendirli, Tanil; Demirkol, Demet; Yildizdas, Dinçer; Anil, Ayse Berna; Asilioğlu, Nazik; Karapinar, Bülent; Erkek, Nilgün; Sevketoğlu, Esra; Dursun, Oğuz; Arslanköylü, Ali Ertuğ; Bayrakçi, Benan; Bosnak, Mehmet; Köroğlu, Tolga; Horoz, Ozgür Ozden; Citak, Agop; Kesici, Selman; Ates, Can; Karaböcüoğlu, Metin; Ince, Erdal

2012-01-01

To outline the epidemiologic features, clinical presentation, clinical courses, and outcomes in critically ill children with pandemic influenza in pediatric intensive care units. Retrospective, observational, multicenter study. Thirteen tertiary pediatric intensive care units in Turkey. Eighty-three children with confirmed infection attributable to pandemic influenza detected by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay between November 1 and December 31, 2009 who were admitted to critical care units. None. During a 2-month period, 532 children were hospitalized with pandemic influenza and 83 (15.6%) needed critical care. For the 83 patients requiring critical care, the median age was 42 (range, 2-204) months, with 24 (28.9%) and 48 (57.8%) of patients younger than 2 and 5 yrs, respectively. Twenty (24.1%) patients had no underlying illness, but 63 (75.9%) children had an underlying chronic illness. Indications for admission to the pediatric intensive care unit were respiratory failure in 66 (79.5%), neurologic deterioration in six (7.2%), and gastrointestinal symptoms in five (6.0%) patients. Acute lung injury was diagnosed in 23 (27.7%), acute respiratory distress syndrome was diagnosed in 34 (41%), and 51 (61.4%) patients were mechanically ventilated. Oseltamivir was used in 80 (96%) patients. The mortality rate for children with pandemic influenza 2009 was 30.1% compared to an overall mortality rate of 13.7% (p = .0016) among pediatric intensive care unit patients without pandemic influenza during the study period. Also, the mortality rate was 31.7% in patients with comorbidities and 25.0% in previously healthy children (p = .567). The cause of death was primary pandemic influenza infection in 16 (64%), nosocomial infection in four (16%), and primary disease progression in five (20%) patients. The odds ratio for respiratory failure was 14.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.85-111.11), and odds ratio for mechanical ventilation was 27.7 (95% confidence interval, 0.003-200). Severe disease and high mortality rates were seen in children with pandemic influenza. Death attributable to pandemic influenza occurred in all age groups of children with or without underlying illness. Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome is associated with increased mortality, and death is frequently secondary to severe lung infection caused by pandemic influenza.

Global mortality attributable to aircraft cruise emissions.

PubMed

Barrett, Steven R H; Britter, Rex E; Waitz, Ian A

2010-10-01

Aircraft emissions impact human health though degradation of air quality. The majority of previous analyses of air quality impacts from aviation have considered only landing and takeoff emissions. We show that aircraft cruise emissions impact human health over a hemispheric scale and provide the first estimate of premature mortalities attributable to aircraft emissions globally. We estimate ∼8000 premature mortalities per year are attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. This represents ∼80% of the total impact of aviation (where the total includes the effects of landing and takeoff emissions), and ∼1% of air quality-related premature mortalities from all sources. However, we note that the impact of landing and takeoff emissions is likely to be under-resolved. Secondary H(2)SO(4)-HNO(3)-NH(3) aerosols are found to dominate mortality impacts. Due to the altitude and region of the atmosphere at which aircraft emissions are deposited, the extent of transboundary air pollution is particularly strong. For example, we describe how strong zonal westerly winds aloft, the mean meridional circulation around 30-60°N, interaction of aircraft-attributable aerosol precursors with background ammonia, and high population densities in combination give rise to an estimated ∼3500 premature mortalities per year in China and India combined, despite their relatively small current share of aircraft emissions. Subsidence of aviation-attributable aerosol and aerosol precursors occurs predominantly around the dry subtropical ridge, which results in reduced wet removal of aviation-attributable aerosol. It is also found that aircraft NO(x) emissions serve to increase oxidation of nonaviation SO(2), thereby further increasing the air quality impacts of aviation. We recommend that cruise emissions be explicitly considered in the development of policies, technologies and operational procedures designed to mitigate the air quality impacts of air transportation.

Migrants, healthy worker effect, and mortality trends in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

PubMed

Chaabna, Karima; Cheema, Sohaila; Mamtani, Ravinder

2017-01-01

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, have experienced unique demographic changes. The major population growth contributor in these countries is young migrants, which has led to a shift in the population age pyramid. Migrants constitute the vast proportion of GCC countries' population reaching >80% in Qatar and UAE. Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) and United Nations data, for the GCC countries, we assessed the association between age-standardized mortality and population size trends with linear and polynomial regressions. In 1990-2015, all-cause age-standardized mortality was inversely proportional to national population size (p-values: 0.0001-0.0457). In Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, the highest annual decrease in mortality was observed when the annual population growth was the highest. In Qatar, all-cause age-specific mortality was inversely proportional to age-specific population size. This association was statistically significant among the 5-14 and 15-49 age groups, which have the largest population size. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality was also inversely proportional to population size. This association was statistically significant for half of the GBD 2015-defined causes of death such as "cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases" and "HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis". Remarkably, incoming migrants to Qatar have to be negative for HIV, hepatitis B and C, and tuberculosis. These results show that decline in mortality can be partly attributed to the increase in GCC countries' population suggesting a healthy migrant effect that influences mortality rates. Consequently, benefits of health interventions and healthcare improvement are likely to be exaggerated in such countries hosting a substantial proportion of migrants compared with countries where migration is low. Researchers and policymakers should be cautious to not exclusively attribute decline in mortality within the GCC countries as a result of the positive effects of health interventions or healthcare improvement.

Migrants, healthy worker effect, and mortality trends in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

PubMed Central

Cheema, Sohaila; Mamtani, Ravinder

2017-01-01

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, have experienced unique demographic changes. The major population growth contributor in these countries is young migrants, which has led to a shift in the population age pyramid. Migrants constitute the vast proportion of GCC countries’ population reaching >80% in Qatar and UAE. Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) and United Nations data, for the GCC countries, we assessed the association between age-standardized mortality and population size trends with linear and polynomial regressions. In 1990–2015, all-cause age-standardized mortality was inversely proportional to national population size (p-values: 0.0001–0.0457). In Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, the highest annual decrease in mortality was observed when the annual population growth was the highest. In Qatar, all-cause age-specific mortality was inversely proportional to age-specific population size. This association was statistically significant among the 5–14 and 15–49 age groups, which have the largest population size. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality was also inversely proportional to population size. This association was statistically significant for half of the GBD 2015-defined causes of death such as “cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases” and “HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis”. Remarkably, incoming migrants to Qatar have to be negative for HIV, hepatitis B and C, and tuberculosis. These results show that decline in mortality can be partly attributed to the increase in GCC countries’ population suggesting a healthy migrant effect that influences mortality rates. Consequently, benefits of health interventions and healthcare improvement are likely to be exaggerated in such countries hosting a substantial proportion of migrants compared with countries where migration is low. Researchers and policymakers should be cautious to not exclusively attribute decline in mortality within the GCC countries as a result of the positive effects of health interventions or healthcare improvement. PMID:28632794

Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century.

PubMed

Case, Anne; Deaton, Angus

2017-01-01

We build on and extend the findings in Case and Deaton (2015) on increases in mortality and morbidity among white non-Hispanic Americans in midlife since the turn of the century. Increases in all-cause mortality continued unabated to 2015, with additional increases in drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol-related liver mortality, particularly among those with a high-school degree or less. The decline in mortality from heart disease has slowed and, most recently, stopped, and this combined with the three other causes is responsible for the increase in all-cause mortality. Not only are educational differences in mortality among whites increasing, but from 1998 to 2015 mortality rose for those without, and fell for those with, a college degree. This is true for non-Hispanic white men and women in all five year age groups from 35-39 through 55-59. Mortality rates among blacks and Hispanics continued to fall; in 1999, the mortality rate of white non-Hispanics aged 50-54 with only a high-school degree was 30 percent lower than the mortality rate of blacks in the same age group but irrespective of education; by 2015, it was 30 percent higher . There are similar crossovers in all age groups from 25-29 to 60-64. Mortality rates in comparable rich countries have continued their pre-millennial fall at the rates that used to characterize the US. In contrast to the US, mortality rates in Europe are falling for those with low levels of educational attainment, and have fallen further over this period than mortality rates for those with higher levels of education. Many commentators have suggested that poor mortality outcomes can be attributed to contemporaneous levels of resources, particularly to slowly growing, stagnant, and even declining incomes; we evaluate this possibility, but find that it cannot provide a comprehensive explanation. In particular, the income profiles for blacks and Hispanics, whose mortality rates have fallen, are no better than those for whites. Nor is there any evidence in the European data that mortality trends match income trends, in spite of sharply different patterns of median income across countries after the Great Recession. We propose a preliminary but plausible story in which cumulative disadvantage from one birth cohort to the next, in the labor market, in marriage and child outcomes, and in health, is triggered by progressively worsening labor market opportunities at the time of entry for whites with low levels of education. This account, which fits much of the data, has the profoundly negative implication that policies, even ones that successfully improve earnings and jobs, or redistribute income, will take many years to reverse the mortality and morbidity increase, and that those in midlife now are likely to do much worse in old age than those currently older than 65. This is in contrast to an account in which resources affect health contemporaneously, so that those in midlife now can expect to do better in old age as they receive Social Security and Medicare. None of this implies that there are no policy levers to be pulled; preventing the over-prescription of opioids is an obvious target that would clearly be helpful.

All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality by Socioeconomic Status Among Employed Persons in 27 US States, 1984–1997

PubMed Central

Steenland, Kyle; Hu, Sherry; Walker, James

2004-01-01

Objectives. We investigated mortality differences according to socioeconomic status (SES) for employed persons in 27 states during 1984–1997. Methods. SES was determined for persons aged 35–64 years according to the “usual occupation” listed on their death certificates. We used US Census denominator data. Results. For all-cause mortality, rate ratios from lowest to highest SES quartile for men and women were 2.02, 1.69, 1.25, and 1.00 and 1.29, 1.01, 1.07, and 1.00, respectively. Percentage of all deaths attributable to being in the lowest 3 SES quartiles was 27%. Inverse SES gradients were strong for most major causes of death except breast cancer and colorectal cancer. Heart disease mortality for highest and lowest SES quartiles dropped 45% and 25%, respectively, between 1984 and 1997. Conclusions. Mortality differences by SES were sustained through the 1990s and are increasing for men. PMID:15249312

Demographic controls of aboveground forest biomass across North America.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Zeng, Hongcheng; Caspersen, John P; Kunstler, Georges; Lichstein, Jeremy W

2016-04-01

Ecologists have limited understanding of how geographic variation in forest biomass arises from differences in growth and mortality at continental to global scales. Using forest inventories from across North America, we partitioned continental-scale variation in biomass growth and mortality rates of 49 tree species groups into (1) species-independent spatial effects and (2) inherent differences in demographic performance among species. Spatial factors that were separable from species composition explained 83% and 51% of the respective variation in growth and mortality. Moderate additional variation in mortality (26%) was attributable to differences in species composition. Age-dependent biomass models showed that variation in forest biomass can be explained primarily by spatial gradients in growth that were unrelated to species composition. Species-dependent patterns of mortality explained additional variation in biomass, with forests supporting less biomass when dominated by species that are highly susceptible to competition (e.g. Populus spp.) or to biotic disturbances (e.g. Abies balsamea). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

PubMed Central

Streatfield, P. Kim; Khan, Wasif A.; Bhuiya, Abbas; Hanifi, Syed M.A.; Alam, Nurul; Bagagnan, Cheik H.; Sié, Ali; Zabré, Pascal; Lankoandé, Bruno; Rossier, Clementine; Soura, Abdramane B.; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Kone, Siaka; Ngoran, Eliezer K.; Utzinger, Juerg; Haile, Fisaha; Melaku, Yohannes A.; Weldearegawi, Berhe; Gomez, Pierre; Jasseh, Momodou; Ansah, Patrick; Debpuur, Cornelius; Oduro, Abraham; Wak, George; Adjei, Alexander; Gyapong, Margaret; Sarpong, Doris; Kant, Shashi; Misra, Puneet; Rai, Sanjay K.; Juvekar, Sanjay; Lele, Pallavi; Bauni, Evasius; Mochamah, George; Ndila, Carolyne; Williams, Thomas N.; Laserson, Kayla F.; Nyaguara, Amek; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Phillips-Howard, Penelope; Ezeh, Alex; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Oti, Samuel; Crampin, Amelia; Nyirenda, Moffat; Price, Alison; Delaunay, Valérie; Diallo, Aldiouma; Douillot, Laetitia; Sokhna, Cheikh; Gómez-Olivé, F. Xavier; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen M.; Herbst, Kobus; Mossong, Joël; Chuc, Nguyen T.K.; Bangha, Martin; Sankoh, Osman A.; Byass, Peter

2014-01-01

Background Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15–64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15–64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work. PMID:25377326

Socioeconomic and urban-rural differentials in exposure to air pollution and mortality burden in England.

PubMed

Milojevic, Ai; Niedzwiedz, Claire L; Pearce, Jamie; Milner, James; MacKenzie, Ian A; Doherty, Ruth M; Wilkinson, Paul

2017-10-06

Socioeconomically disadvantaged populations often have higher exposures to particulate air pollution, which can be expected to contribute to differentials in life expectancy. We examined socioeconomic differentials in exposure and air pollution-related mortality relating to larger scale (5 km resolution) variations in background concentrations of selected pollutants across England. Ozone and particulate matter (sub-divided into PM 10 , PM 2.5 , PM 2.5-10 , primary, nitrate and sulphate PM 2.5 ) were simulated at 5 km horizontal resolution using an atmospheric chemistry transport model (EMEP4UK). Annual mean concentrations of these pollutants were assigned to all 1,202,578 residential postcodes in England, which were classified by urban-rural status and socioeconomic deprivation based on the income and employment domains of the 2010 English Index of Multiple Deprivation for the Lower-level Super Output Area of residence. We used life table methods to estimate PM 2.5 -attributable life years (LYs) lost in both relative and absolute terms. Concentrations of the most particulate fractions, but not of nitrate PM 2.5 or ozone, were modestly higher in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivation. Relationships between pollution level and socioeconomic deprivation were non-linear and varied by urban-rural status. The pattern of PM 2.5 concentrations made only a small contribution to the steep socioeconomic gradient in LYs lost due to PM 2.5 per 10 3 population, which primarily was driven by the steep socioeconomic gradient in underlying mortality rates. In rural areas, the absolute burden of air pollution-related LYs lost was lowest in the most deprived deciles. Air pollution shows modest socioeconomic patterning at 5 km resolution in England, but absolute attributable mortality burdens are strongly related to area-level deprivation because of underlying mortality rates. Measures that cause a general reduction in background concentrations of air pollution may modestly help narrow socioeconomic differences in health.

Racial disparities: disruptive genes in prostate carcinogenesis.

PubMed

Singh, Savita; Plaga, Alexis; Shukla, Girish C

2017-06-01

Population specific studies in prostate cancer (PCa) reveal a unique heterogeneous etiology. Various factors, such as genetics, environment and dietary regimen seems to determine disease progression, therapeutic resistance and rate of mortality. Enormous disparity documented in disease incidences, aggressiveness and mortality in PCa among AAs (African Americans) and CAs (Caucasian Americans) is attributed to the variations in genetics, epigenetics and their association with metabolism. Scientific and clinical evidences have revealed the influence of variations in Androgen Receptor (AR), RNAse L, macrophage scavenger receptor 1 ( MRS1 ), androgen metabolism by cytochrome P450 3A4, differential regulation of microRNAs, epigenetic alterations and diet in racial disparity in PCa incidences and mortality. Concerted efforts are needed to identify race specific prognostic markers and treatment regimen for a better management of the disease.

Evacuation effect on excess mortality among institutionalized elderly after the fukushima daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

PubMed

Yasumura, Seiji

2014-01-01

The Great East Japan Earthquake hit Fukushima Prefecture on March 11, 2011, just over 3 years ago and it continues to affect our lives. In Fukushima, many people are confirmed dead or still missing due to the earthquake and/or tsunami. Additional "disaster-related deaths" have been attributed to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident. Mortality among the institutionalized elderly rates after the NPP accident were exceptionally high during the first 3 months, and persisted at a lower level for 9 months, in comparison with similar periods before the accident. This study demonstrates the great impact of evacuation on mortality of institutionalized elderly, excluding inpatients. We need to pay special attention to evacuation of the elderly, regardless of whether voluntary or forced.

Quantifying the global contribution of alcohol consumption to cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Manthey, Jakob; Imtiaz, Sameer; Neufeld, Maria; Rylett, Margaret; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-05-25

The global impact of alcohol consumption on deaths due to cardiomyopathy (CM) has not been quantified to date, even though CM contains a subcategory for alcoholic CM with an effect of heavy drinking over time as the postulated underlying causal mechanism. In this feasibility study, a model to estimate the alcohol-attributable fraction (AAF) of CM deaths based on alcohol exposure measures is proposed. A two-step model was developed based on aggregate-level data from 95 countries, including the most populous (data from 2013 or last available year). First, the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM per 1,000,000 adults was predicted using a negative binomial regression based on prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) and adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC) (n = 52 countries). Second, the proportion of alcoholic CM among all CM deaths (i.e., AAF) was predicted using a fractional response probit regression with alcoholic CM crude mortality rate (from Step 1), AUD prevalence, APC per drinker, and Global Burden of Disease region as predictions. Additional models repeated these steps by sex and for the wider Global Burden of Disease study definition of CM. There were strong correlations (>0.9) between the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM and the AAFs, supporting the modeling strategy. In the first step, the population-weighted mean crude mortality rate was estimated at 8.4 alcoholic CM deaths per 1,000,000 (95% CI: 7.4-9.3). In the second step, the global AAFs were estimated at 6.9% (95% CI: 5.4-8.4%). Sex-specific figures suggested a lower AAF among females (2.9%, 95% CI: 2.3-3.4%) as compared to males (8.9%, 95% CI: 7.0-10.7%). Larger deviations between observed and predicted AAFs were found in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The model proposed promises to fill the gap to include AAFs for CM into comparative risk assessments in the future. These predictions likely will be underestimates because of the stigma involved in all fully alcohol-attributable conditions and subsequent problems in coding of alcoholic CM deaths.

Assessing the Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Breast Cancer Mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Yedjou, Clement G.; Tchounwou, Paul B.; Payton, Marinelle; Miele, Lucio; Fonseca, Duber D.; Lowe, Leroy; Alo, Richard A.

2017-01-01

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer related deaths among women aged 40–55 in the United States and currently affects more than one in ten women worldwide. It is also one of the most diagnosed cancers in women both in wealthy and poor countries. Fortunately, the mortality rate from breast cancer has decreased in recent years due to increased emphasis on early detection and more effective treatments in White population. Although the mortality rates have declined in some ethnic populations, the overall cancer incidence among African American and Hispanic populations has continued to grow. The goal of the present review article was to highlight similarities and differences in breast cancer morbidity and mortality rates primarily among African American women compared to White women in the United States. To reach our goal, we conducted a search of articles in journals with a primary focus on minority health, and authors who had published articles on racial/ethnic disparity related to breast cancer patients. A systematic search of original research was conducted using MEDLINE, PUBMED and Google Scholar databases. We found that racial/ethnic disparities in breast cancer may be attributed to a large number of clinical and non-clinical risk factors including lack of medical coverage, barriers to early detection and screening, more advanced stage of disease at diagnosis among minorities, and unequal access to improvements in cancer treatment. Many African American women have frequent unknown or unstaged breast cancers than White women. These risk factors may explain the differences in breast cancer treatment and survival rate between African American women and White women. New strategies and approaches are needed to promote breast cancer prevention, improve survival rate, reduce breast cancer mortality, and ultimately improve the health outcomes of racial/ethnic minorities. PMID:28475137

Assessing the Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Breast Cancer Mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Yedjou, Clement G; Tchounwou, Paul B; Payton, Marinelle; Miele, Lucio; Fonseca, Duber D; Lowe, Leroy; Alo, Richard A

2017-05-05

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer related deaths among women aged 40-55 in the United States and currently affects more than one in ten women worldwide. It is also one of the most diagnosed cancers in women both in wealthy and poor countries. Fortunately, the mortality rate from breast cancer has decreased in recent years due to increased emphasis on early detection and more effective treatments in White population. Although the mortality rates have declined in some ethnic populations, the overall cancer incidence among African American and Hispanic populations has continued to grow. The goal of the present review article was to highlight similarities and differences in breast cancer morbidity and mortality rates primarily among African American women compared to White women in the United States. To reach our goal, we conducted a search of articles in journals with a primary focus on minority health, and authors who had published articles on racial/ethnic disparity related to breast cancer patients. A systematic search of original research was conducted using MEDLINE, PUBMED and Google Scholar databases. We found that racial/ethnic disparities in breast cancer may be attributed to a large number of clinical and non-clinical risk factors including lack of medical coverage, barriers to early detection and screening, more advanced stage of disease at diagnosis among minorities, and unequal access to improvements in cancer treatment. Many African American women have frequent unknown or unstaged breast cancers than White women. These risk factors may explain the differences in breast cancer treatment and survival rate between African American women and White women. New strategies and approaches are needed to promote breast cancer prevention, improve survival rate, reduce breast cancer mortality, and ultimately improve the health outcomes of racial/ethnic minorities.

Banking crises and mortality during the Great Depression: evidence from US urban populations, 1929-1937.

PubMed

Stuckler, David; Meissner, Christopher; Fishback, Price; Basu, Sanjay; McKee, Martin

2012-05-01

Previous research suggests that the Great Depression led to improvements in public health. However, these studies rely on highly aggregated national data (using fewer than 25 data points) and potentially biased measures of the Great Depression. The authors assess the effects of the Great Depression using city-level estimates of US mortality and an underlying measure of economic crisis, bank suspensions, at the state level. Cause-specific mortalities covering 114 US cities in 36 states between 1929 and 1937 were regressed against bank suspensions and income data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Database, using dynamic fixed-effects models and adjustments for potential confounding variables. Reductions in all-cause mortalities were mainly attributable to declines in death rates owing to pneumonia (26.4% of total), flu (13.1% of total) and respiratory tuberculosis (11.2% of total), while death rates increased from heart disease (19.4% of total), cancer (8.1% of total) and diabetes (2.9%). Only heart disease can plausibly relate to the contemporaneous economic shocks. The authors found that a higher rate of bank suspensions was significantly associated with higher suicide rates (β=0.32, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.41) but lower death rates from motor-vehicle accidents (β=-0.18, 95% CI -0.29 to -0.07); no significant effects were observed for 30 other causes of death or with a time lag. In contrast with existing research, the authors find that many of the changes in deaths from different causes during the Great Depression were unrelated to economic shocks. Further research is needed to understand the causes of the marked variations in mortality change across cities and states, including the effects of the New Deal and Prohibition.

Trends and outcome predictors after traumatic brain injury surgery: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Shi, Hon-Yi; Hwang, Shiuh-Lin; Lee, I-Chen; Chen, I-Te; Lee, King-Teh; Lin, Chih-Lung

2014-12-01

The authors sought to analyze trends in hospital resource utilization and mortality rates in a population of patients who had received traumatic brain injury (TBI) surgery. This nationwide population-based cohort study retrospectively analyzed 18,286 patients who had received surgical treatment for TBI between 1998 and 2010. The multiple linear regression model and Cox proportional hazards model were used for multivariate assessment of outcome predictors. The prevalence rate of surgical treatment for patients with TBI gradually but significantly (p < 0.001) increased by 47.6% from 5.0 per 100,000 persons in 1998 to 7.4 per 100,000 persons in 2010. Age, sex, Deyo-Charlson comorbidity index score, hospital volume, and surgeon volume were significantly associated with TBI surgery outcomes (p < 0.05). Over the 12-year period analyzed, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost increased 19.06%, whereas the in-hospital mortality rate decreased 10.9%. The estimated mean time of overall survival after TBI surgery (± SD) was 83.0 ± 4.2 months, and the overall in-hospital and 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 74.5%, 67.3%, 61.1%, and 57.8%, respectively. These data reveal an increased prevalence of TBI, especially in older patients, and an increased hospital treatment cost but a decreased in-hospital mortality rate. Health care providers and patients should recognize that attributes of the patient and of the hospital may affect hospital resource utilization and the mortality rate. These results are relevant not only to other countries with similar population sizes but also to countries with larger populations.

Family planning issues relating to maternal and infant mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Puffer, R R

1993-01-01

Both maternal and infant death rates in the United States are much higher than in many developed countries. The interrelationships between abortions and maternal and infant mortality have been analyzed on the basis of data from the 1970s and 1980s. The legalization of abortions in 1973 resulted in a marked increase in legal abortions and marked reductions in maternal and infant mortality over the course of the 1970s. However, a wide variation in abortion rates and in the number of abortion facilities indicates that such facilities were not readily available to all segments of the population in some areas. This probably accounts in part for higher maternal and infant death rates in such areas. Smoking, small weight gain, use of alcohol and drugs in pregnancy, and excessive maternal youth or age affected the outcome of pregnancy and contributed to high rates of infant death. Infant death rates were especially high among newborns of teenagers and young adult mothers; relatively high proportions of these newborns had low birthweights; a large share of the pregnancies involved were unintended; and slightly over half of the unintended pregnancies in teenagers and young women resulted in abortion. Comparisons with findings in Sweden reveal that the rates of unplanned pregnancy, abortion, and infant mortality were all much higher in the United States than in Sweden. The differences are attributed to better contraceptive services, which were made available free or very inexpensively in Sweden. Also, the frequency of low weight births was much lower in Sweden.

Demographic survey of the level and determinants of perinatal mortality in Karachi, Pakistan.

PubMed

Fikree, F F; Gray, R H

1996-01-01

A demographic survey was used to estimate the level and determinants of perinatal mortality in eight lower socio-economic squatter settlements of Karachi, Pakistan. The perinatal mortality rate was 54.1 per 1000 births, with a stillbirth to early neonatal mortality ratio of 1:1. About 65% of neonatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period, and early neonatal mortality contributed 32% of all infant deaths. Risk factor assessment was conducted on 375 perinatal deaths and 6070 current survivors. Poorer socio-economic status variables such as maternal and paternal illiteracy, maternal work outside the home and fewer household assets were significantly associated with perinatal mortality as were biological factors of higher parental age, short birth intervals and poor obstetric history. Multivariable logistic analysis indicated that some socio-economic factors retained their significance after adjusting for the more proximate biological factors. Population attributable risk estimates suggest that public health measures for screening of high-risk women and use of family planning to space births will not improve perinatal mortality substantially without improvement of socio-economic conditions, particularly maternal education. The results of this study indicate that an evaluation of perinatal mortality can be conducted using pregnancy histories derived from demographic surveys.

Mortality among World Trade Center Rescue and Recovery Workers, 2002 – 2011

PubMed Central

Stein, Cheryl R; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Shapiro, Moshe; Hashim, Dana; Moline, Jacqueline M; Udasin, Iris; Crane, Michael A; Luft, Benjamin J; Lucchini, Roberto G; Holden, William L

2015-01-01

Background Rescue and recovery workers responding to the 2001 collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) sustained exposures to toxic chemicals and have elevated rates of multiple morbidities. Methods Using data from the World Trade Center Health Program and the National Death Index for 2002 – 2011, we examined standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and proportional cancer mortality ratios (PCMR) with indirect standardization for age, sex, race, and calendar year to the U.S. general population, as well as associations between WTC-related environmental exposures and all-cause mortality. Results We identified 330 deaths among 28,918 responders (SMR 0.43, 95% CI 0.39 – 0.48). No cause-specific SMRs were meaningfully elevated. PCMRs were elevated for neoplasms of lymphatic and hematopoietic tissue (PCMR 1.76, 95% CI 1.06 – 2.75). Mortality hazard ratios showed no linear trend with exposure. Conclusions Consistent with a healthy worker effect, all-cause mortality among responders was not elevated. There was no clear association between intensity and duration of exposure and mortality. Surveillance is needed to monitor the proportionally higher cancer mortality attributed to lymphatic/hematopoietic neoplasms. PMID:26727695

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

PubMed

2014-08-01

High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential impact of increased treatment rates for alcohol dependence in the United Kingdom in 2004.

PubMed

Shield, Kevin D; Rehm, Jürgen; Rehm, Maximilien X; Gmel, Gerrit; Drummond, Colin

2014-02-05

Alcohol consumption has been linked to a considerable burden of disease in the United Kingdom (UK), with most of this burden due to heavy drinking and Alcohol Dependence (AD). However, AD is undertreated in the UK, with only 8% of those individuals with AD being treated in England and only 6% of those individuals with AD being treated in Scotland. Thus, the objective of this paper is to quantify the deaths that would have been avoided in the UK in 2004 if the treatment rate for AD had been increased. Data on the prevalence of AD, alcohol consumption, and mortality were obtained from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey, the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, and the 2004 Global Burden of Disease study respectively. Data on the effectiveness of pharmacological treatment and Motivational Interviewing/Cognitive Behavioural Therapy were obtained from Cochrane reviews and meta-analyses. Simulations were used to model the number of deaths under different treatment scenarios. Sensitivity analyses were performed to model the effects of Brief Interventions and to examine the effect of using AD prevalence data obtained from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. In the UK, 320 female and 1,385 male deaths would have been avoided if treatment coverage of pharmacological treatment had been increased to 20%. This decrease in the number of deaths represents 7.9% of all alcohol-attributable deaths (7.0% of all alcohol-attributable deaths for women and 8.1% of all alcohol-attributable deaths for men). If we used lower AD prevalence rates obtained from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, then treatment coverage of pharmacological treatment in hospitals for 20% of the population with AD would have resulted in the avoidance of 529 deaths in 2004 (99 deaths avoided for women and 430 deaths avoided for men). Increasing AD treatment in the UK would have led to a large number of deaths being avoided in 2004. Increased AD treatment rates not only impact mortality but also impact upon the large burden of disability and morbidity attributable to AD, as well as the associated social and economic burdens.

All-Cause, Cardiovascular, and Cancer Mortality Rates in Postmenopausal White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian Women With and Without Diabetes in the United States

PubMed Central

Ma, Yunsheng; Hébert, James R.; Balasubramanian, Raji; Wedick, Nicole M.; Howard, Barbara V.; Rosal, Milagros C.; Liu, Simin; Bird, Chloe E.; Olendzki, Barbara C.; Ockene, Judith K.; Wactawski-Wende, Jean; Phillips, Lawrence S.; LaMonte, Michael J.; Schneider, Kristin L.; Garcia, Lorena; Ockene, Ira S.; Merriam, Philip A.; Sepavich, Deidre M.; Mackey, Rachel H.; Johnson, Karen C.; Manson, JoAnn E.

2013-01-01

Using data from the Women's Health Initiative (1993–2009; n = 158,833 participants, of whom 84.1% were white, 9.2% were black, 4.1% were Hispanic, and 2.6% were Asian), we compared all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality rates in white, black, Hispanic, and Asian postmenopausal women with and without diabetes. Cox proportional hazard models were used for the comparison from which hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were computed. Within each racial/ethnic subgroup, women with diabetes had an approximately 2–3 times higher risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality than did those without diabetes. However, the hazard ratios for mortality outcomes were not significantly different between racial/ethnic subgroups. Population attributable risk percentages (PARPs) take into account both the prevalence of diabetes and hazard ratios. For all-cause mortality, whites had the lowest PARP (11.1, 95% confidence interval (CI): 10.1, 12.1), followed by Asians (12.9, 95% CI: 4.7, 20.9), blacks (19.4, 95% CI: 15.0, 23.7), and Hispanics (23.2, 95% CI: 14.8, 31.2). To our knowledge, the present study is the first to show that hazard ratios for mortality outcomes were not significantly different between racial/ethnic subgroups when stratified by diabetes status. Because of the “amplifying” effect of diabetes prevalence, efforts to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in the rate of death from diabetes should focus on prevention of diabetes. PMID:24045960

Overview of deaths associated with natural events, United States, 1979-2004.

PubMed

Thacker, Maria T F; Lee, Robin; Sabogal, Raquel I; Henderson, Alden

2008-06-01

Analysis of the National Center for Health Statistics' Compressed Mortality File showed that between 1979 and 2004, natural events caused 21,491 deaths in the United States. During this 26-year period, there were 10,827 cold-related deaths and 5,279 heat-related deaths. Extreme cold or heat accounted for 75 per cent of the total number of deaths attributed to natural events--more than all of deaths resulting from lightning, storms and foods, and earth movements, such as earthquakes and landslides. Cold-related death rates were highest in the states of Alaska, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota, while heat-related deaths were highest in the states of Arizona, Missouri, and Arkansas. These deaths occurred more often among the elderly and black men. Other deaths were attributed to lightning (1,906), storms and foods (2,741), and earth movements (738). Most deaths associated with natural events are preventable and society can take action to decrease the morbidity and mortality connected with them.

Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Hashizume, Masahiro; Lavigne, Eric; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; Rocklöv, Joacim; Forsberg, Bertil; Leone, Michela; De Sario, Manuela; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-fu; Kan, Haidong; Yi, Seung-Muk; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Armstrong, Ben

2015-01-01

Summary Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. Findings We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Interpretation Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. Funding UK Medical Research Council. PMID:26003380

Sources of heterogeneity in studies of the BMI-mortality association.

PubMed

Peter, Raphael Simon; Nagel, Gabriele

2017-06-01

To date, the amount of heterogeneity among studies of the body mass index-mortality association attributable to differences in the age distribution and length of follow-up has not been quantified. Therefore, we wanted to quantify the amount of heterogeneity attributable to age and follow-up in results of studies on the body mass index-mortality relation. We used optima of the body mass index mortality association reported for 30 populations and performed meta-regression to estimate the amount of heterogeneity attributable to sex, ethnicity, mean age at baseline, percentage smokers, and length of follow-up. Ethnicity as single factor accounted for 36% (95% CI, 11-56%) of heterogeneity. Mean age and length of follow-up had an interactive effect and together accounted for 56% (95% CI, 24-74%) of the remaining heterogeneity. Sex did not significantly contribute to the heterogeneity, after controlling for ethnicity, age, and length of follow-up. A considerable amount of heterogeneity in studies of the body mass index-mortality association is attributable to ethnicity, age, and length of follow-up. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mortality burden of ambient fine particulate air pollution in six Chinese cities: Results from the Pearl River Delta study.

PubMed

Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Guo, Lingchuan; Zhang, Yonghui; Xu, Yanjun; Tao, Jun; Xian, Hong; Syberg, Kevin M; Qian, Zhengmin Min; Ma, Wenjun

2016-11-01

Epidemiological studies have reported significant association between ambient fine particulate matter air pollution (PM 2.5 ) and mortality, however, few studies have investigated the relationship of mortality with PM 2.5 and associated mortality burden in China, especially in a multicity setting. We investigated the PM 2.5 -mortality association in six cities of the Pearl River Delta region from 2013 to 2015. We used generalized additive Poisson models incorporating penalized smoothing splines to control for temporal trend, temperature, and relative humidity. We applied meta-analyses using random-effects models to pool the effect estimates in the six cities. We also examined these associations in stratified analyses by sex, age group, education level and location of death. We further estimated the mortality burden (attributable fraction and attributable mortality) due to ambient PM 2.5 exposures. During the study period, a total of 316,305 deaths were recorded in the study area. The analysis revealed a significant association between PM 2.5 and mortality. Specifically, a 10μg/m 3 increase in 4-day averaged (lag 03 ) PM 2.5 concentration corresponded to a 1.76% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.47%, 2.06%) increase in total mortality, 2.19% (95% CI: 1.80%, 2.59%) in cardiovascular mortality, and 1.68% (95% CI: 1.00%, 2.37%) in respiratory mortality. The results were generally robust to model specifications and adjustment of gaseous air pollutants. We estimated that 0.56% (95% CI: 0.47%, 0.66%) and 3.79% (95% CI: 3.14%, 4.45%) of all-cause mortalities were attributable to PM 2.5 using China's and WHO's air quality standards as the reference, corresponding to 1661 (95% CI: 1379, 1946) and 11,176 (95% CI: 9261, 13,120) attributable premature mortalities, respectively. This analysis adds to the growing body of evidence linking PM 2.5 with daily mortality, and mortality burdens, particularly in one Chinese region with high levels of air pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is sprawl associated with a widening urban-suburban mortality gap?

PubMed

Fan, Yingling; Song, Yan

2009-09-01

This paper examines whether sprawl, featured by low development density, segregated land uses, lack of significant centers, and poor street connectivity, contributes to a widening mortality gap between urban and suburban residents. We employ two mortality datasets, including a national cross-sectional dataset examining the impact of metropolitan-level sprawl on urban-suburban mortality gaps and a longitudinal dataset from Portland examining changes in urban-suburban mortality gaps over time. The national and Portland studies provide the only evidence to date that (1) across metropolitan areas, the size of urban-suburban mortality gaps varies by the extent of sprawl: in sprawling metropolitan areas, urban residents have significant excess mortality risks than suburban residents, while in compact metropolitan areas, urbanicity-related excess mortality becomes insignificant; (2) the Portland metropolitan area not only experienced net decreases in mortality rates but also a narrowing urban-suburban mortality gap since its adoption of smart growth regime in the past decade; and (3) the existence of excess mortality among urban residents in US sprawling metropolitan areas, as well as the net mortality decreases and narrowing urban-suburban mortality gap in the Portland metropolitan area, is not attributable to sociodemographic variations. These findings suggest that health threats imposed by sprawl affect urban residents disproportionately compared to suburban residents and that efforts curbing sprawl may mitigate urban-suburban health disparities.

Rapid Reduction in Breast Cancer Mortality With Inorganic Arsenic in Drinking Water

PubMed Central

Smith, Allan H.; Marshall, Guillermo; Yuan, Yan; Steinmaus, Craig; Liaw, Jane; Smith, Martyn T.; Wood, Lily; Heirich, Marissa; Fritzemeier, Rebecca M.; Pegram, Mark D.; Ferreccio, Catterina

2014-01-01

Background Arsenic trioxide is effective in treating promyelocytic leukemia, and laboratory studies demonstrate that arsenic trioxide causes apoptosis of human breast cancer cells. Region II in northern Chile experienced very high concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water, especially in the main city Antofagasta from 1958 until an arsenic removal plant was installed in 1970. Methods We investigated breast cancer mortality from 1950 to 2010 among women in Region II compared to Region V, which had low arsenic water concentrations. We conducted studies on human breast cancer cell lines and compared arsenic exposure in Antofagasta with concentrations inducing apoptosis in laboratory studies. Findings Before 1958, breast cancer mortality rates were similar, but in 1958–1970 the rates in Region II were half those in Region V (rate ratio RR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.40–0.66; p < 0.0001). Women under the age of 60 experienced a 70% reduction in breast cancer mortality during 1965–1970 (RR = 0.30, 0.17–0.54; p < 0.0001). Breast cancer cell culture studies showed apoptosis at arsenic concentrations close to those estimated to have occurred in people in Region II. Interpretation We found biologically plausible major reductions in breast cancer mortality during high exposure to inorganic arsenic in drinking water which could not be attributed to bias or confounding. We recommend clinical trial assessment of inorganic arsenic in the treatment of advanced breast cancer. PMID:25580451

Attributable risk and potential impact of interventions to reduce household air pollution associated with under-five mortality in South Asia.

PubMed

Naz, Sabrina; Page, Andrew; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore

2018-01-01

Solid fuel use is the major source of household air pollution (HAP) and accounts for a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality in low and middle income countries. To evaluate and compare childhood mortality attributable to HAP in four South Asian countries. A series of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan were used for analysis. Estimates of relative risk and exposure prevalence relating to use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality were used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for each country. Potential impact fractions (PIFs) were also calculated assessing theoretical scenarios based on published interventions aiming to reduce exposure prevalence. There are an increased risk of under-five mortality in those exposed to cooking fuel compared to those not exposed in the four South Asian countries (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.07-1.57, P  = 0.007). Combined PAF estimates for South Asia found that 66% (95% CI: 43.1-81.5%) of the 13,290 estimated cases of under-five mortality was attributable to HAP. Joint PIF estimates (assuming achievable reductions in HAP reported in intervention studies conducted in South Asia) indicates 47% of neonatal and 43% of under-five mortality cases associated with HAP could be avoidable in the four South Asian countries studied. Elimination of exposure to use of cooking fuel in the household targeting valuable intervention strategies (such as cooking in separate kitchen, improved cook stoves) could reduce substantially under-five mortality in South Asian countries.

Cancer-specific mortality, cure fraction, and noncancer causes of death among diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients in the immunochemotherapy era.

PubMed

Howlader, Nadia; Mariotto, Angela B; Besson, Caroline; Suneja, Gita; Robien, Kim; Younes, Naji; Engels, Eric A

2017-09-01

Survival after the diagnosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has been increasing since 2002 because of improved therapies; however, long-term outcomes for these patients in the modern treatment era are still unknown. Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, this study first assessed factors associated with DLBCL-specific mortality during 2002-2012. An epidemiologic risk profile, based on clinical and demographic characteristics, was used to stratify DLBCL cases into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The proportions of DLBCL cases that might be considered cured in these 3 risk groups was estimated. Risks of death due to various noncancer causes among DLBCL cases versus the general population were also calculated with standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Overall, 8274 deaths were recorded among 18,047 DLBCL cases; 76% of the total deaths were attributed to DLBCL, and 24% were attributed to noncancer causes. The 10-year survival rates for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 80%, 60%, and 36%, respectively. The estimated cure proportions for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 73%, 49%, and 27%, respectively; however, these cure estimates were uncertain because of the need to extrapolate the survival curves beyond the follow-up time. Mortality risks calculated with SMRs were elevated for conditions including vascular diseases (SMR, 1.3), infections (SMR, 3.1), gastrointestinal diseases (SMR, 2.5), and blood diseases (SMR, 4.6). These mortality risks were especially high within the initial 5 years after the diagnosis and declined after 5 years. Some DLBCL patients may be cured of their cancer, but they continue to experience excess mortality from lymphoma and other noncancer causes. Cancer 2017;123:3326-34. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

HIV mortality and infection in India: estimates from nationally representative mortality survey of 1.1 million homes.

PubMed

Jha, Prabhat; Kumar, Rajesh; Khera, Ajay; Bhattacharya, Madhulekha; Arora, Paul; Gajalakshmi, Vendhan; Bhatia, Prakash; Kam, Derek; Bassani, Diego G; Sullivan, Ashleigh; Suraweera, Wilson; McLaughlin, Catherine; Dhingra, Neeraj; Nagelkerke, Nico

2010-02-23

To determine the rates of death and infection from HIV in India. Nationally representative survey of deaths. 1.1 million homes in India. Population 123,000 deaths at all ages from 2001 to 2003. HIV mortality and infection. HIV accounted for 8.1% (99% confidence interval 5.0% to 11.2%) of all deaths among adults aged 25-34 years. In this age group, about 40% of deaths from HIV were due to AIDS, 26% were due to tuberculosis, and the rest were attributable to other causes. Nationally, HIV infection accounted for about 100,000 (59,000 to 140,000) deaths or 3.2% (1.9% to 4.6%) of all deaths among people aged 15-59 years. Deaths from HIV were concentrated in the states and districts with higher HIV prevalence and in men. The mortality results imply an HIV prevalence at age 15-49 years of 0.26% (0.13% to 0.39%) in 2004, comparable to results from a 2005/6 household survey that tested for HIV (0.28%). Collectively, these data suggest that India had about 1.4-1.6 million HIV infected adults aged 15-49 years in 2004-6, about 40% lower than the official estimate of 2.3 million for 2006. All cause mortality increased in men aged 25-34 years between 1997 and 2002 in the states with higher HIV prevalence but declined after that. HIV prevalence in young pregnant women, a proxy measure of incidence in the general population, fell between 2000 and 2007. Thus, HIV mortality and prevalence may have fallen further since our study. HIV attributable death and infection in India is substantial, although it is lower than previously estimated.

Costs resulting from premature mortality due to cardiovascular causes: A 20-year follow-up of the DRECE study.

PubMed

Gómez-de la Cámara, A; Pinilla-Domínguez, P; Vázquez-Fernández Del Pozo, S; García-Pérez, L; Rubio-Herrera, M A; Gómez-Gerique, J A; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, J A; Rivero-Cuadrado, A; Serrano-Aguilar, P

2014-10-01

Cardiovascular diseases are still the leading cause of death in Spain. The DRECE study (Diet and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Spain), based on a representative cohort of the Spanish general population, analyzed nutritional habits and lifestyle and their association with morbidity and mortality patterns. We estimated the impact, in terms of loss of productivity, of premature mortality attributed to cardiovascular diseases. The loss of productivity attributed to premature mortality was calculated from 1991, based on the potential years of life lost and the potential years of working life lost. During the 20-year follow-up of a cohort of 4779 patients, 225 of these patients died (men, 152). Sixteen percent of the deaths were attributed to cardiovascular disease. The costs due to lost productivity by premature mortality exceeded 29 million euros. Of these, 4 million euros (14% of the total cost) were due to cardiovascular causes. Premature cardiovascular mortality in the DRECE cohort represented a significant social cost due to lost productivity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Joel D.; Lee, Mihye; Kinney, Patrick L.; Yang, Suijia; Mills, David; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Streeter, Richard; St. Juliana, Alexis; Peers, Jennifer;

Mortality Attributable to Secondhand Smoke Exposure in Spain (2011).

PubMed

López, Maria J; Pérez-Ríos, Mónica; Schiaffino, Anna; Fernández, Esteve

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to assess the mortality attributable to secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among never-smokers in Spain in 2011, after the implementation of the Spanish smoking law. Data on SHS exposure were obtained from a computer-assisted telephone survey carried out in a representative sample of the adult Spanish population. We included the two main diseases widely associated with SHS exposure: lung cancer and ischaemic heart disease. The relative risks for these diseases were selected from previously published meta-analyses. The number of deaths attributable to SHS was calculated by applying the population attributable fraction to mortality not attributable to active smoking in 2011. The analyses were stratified by sex, age and setting of exposure (home, workplace, and both combined). In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed for distinct scenarios. In 2011, a total of 586 deaths in men and 442 deaths in women would be attributable to SHS exposure. The total number of deaths from lung cancer attributable to SHS exposure would be 124, while the total number of deaths from ischaemic heart disease would be 904. The inclusion of ex-smokers or SHS exposure in leisure time in the study would considerably increase the total number of attributable deaths (by 20% and 130%, respectively). The total number of deaths attributable to SHS exposure at home and at work in Spain would be 1028 in 2011. Efforts are still needed to reduce the current prevalence of exposure-mainly due to exposure in nonregulated settings such as homes or cars and some outdoor spaces-and the associated morbidity and mortality. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of declining exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke in public places to decreasing smoking-related cancer mortality in the US population.

PubMed

García-Esquinas, Esther; Jiménez, Angélica; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Jones, Miranda R; Perez-Gomez, Beatriz; Navas-Acien, Ana; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

2018-08-01

The major decrease in exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) in public places in recent decades could have contributed to the decline in smoking-related cancer mortality observed in the US population. Prospective study among 11,856 non-smoking adults aged ≥40 years who participated in NHANES 1988-1994 or 1999-2004 and were followed for mortality through 2006. We estimated the amount of change in cancer mortality over time attributed to the intermediate pathway of changes in SHS exposure in public places, after adjustment for risk factors and SHS exposure at home. The adjusted smoking-related cancer mortality rate ratios (95% CI) for a two-fold increase in serum cotinine and a 1-hour increase in occupational SHS exposure time were 1.10 (1.03, 1.17) and 1.14 (1.06, 1.24) for all-cancer, and 1.13 (1.03, 1.24) and 1.14 (1.02, 1.26) for smoking-related cancer, respectively. The absolute reduction in mortality comparing 1999-2004 to 1988-1994 was 75.8 (-25.5, 177.0) and 77.0 (2.6, 151.4) deaths/100,000 person-years, for all-cancer and smoking-related cancer, respectively. Among these avoided all-cancer deaths, 45.8 (2.8, 89.5) and 18.1 (-1.2, 39.6)/100,000 person-year were attributable to changes in serum cotinine concentrations and occupational SHS exposure time, respectively. The corresponding numbers of smoking-related cancer avoided deaths were 36.4 (0.7, 72.8) and 9.9 (-3.8, 24.9)/100,000 person-year. Declines in SHS exposure were associated with reductions in all-cancer and smoking-related cancer mortality, supporting that smoking bans in public places may have reduced cancer mortality among non-smoking adults. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduction in cardiac mortality with bivalirudin in patients with and without major bleeding: The HORIZONS-AMI trial (Harmonizing Outcomes with Revascularization and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction).

PubMed

Stone, Gregg W; Clayton, Tim; Deliargyris, Efthymios N; Prats, Jayne; Mehran, Roxana; Pocock, Stuart J

The purpose of this study was to determine whether, in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), the reduction in cardiac mortality in those taking bivalirudin compared with unfractionated heparin plus a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor (UFH+GPI) can be fully attributed to reduced bleeding. The association between hemorrhagic complications and mortality may explain the survival benefit with bivalirudin. A total of 3,602 STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI were randomized to bivalirudin versus UFH+GPI. Three-year cardiac mortality was analyzed in patients with and without major bleeding. When compared with UFH+GPI, bivalirudin resulted in lower 3-year rates of major bleeding (6.9% vs. 10.5%, hazard ratio [HR]: 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.51 to 0.80], p < 0.0001) and cardiac mortality (2.9% vs. 5.1%, HR: 0.56 [95% CI: 0.40 to 0.80], p = 0.001). Three-year cardiac mortality was reduced in bivalirudin-treated patients with major bleeding (20 fewer deaths with bivalirudin; 5.8% vs. 14.6%, p = 0.025) and without major bleeding (18 fewer deaths with bivalirudin; 2.6% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.048). In a fully-adjusted multivariable model accounting for major bleeding and other adverse events, bivalirudin was still associated with a 43% reduction in 3-year cardiac mortality (adjusted HR: 0.57 [95% CI: 0.39 to 0.83], p = 0.003). Bivalirudin reduces cardiac mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI, an effect that can only partly be attributed to prevention of bleeding. Further studies are required to identify the nonhematologic benefits of bivalirudin. (Harmonizing Outcomes With Revascularization and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction; NCT00433966). Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic development and family size.

PubMed

Rios, R J

1991-01-01

The demographic transition in Latin America has resulted in increased family size rather than the Western European model of reduced family size. In 1905, both fertility and mortality were high in Latin America, but mortality declined more rapidly in Latin America than in Europe. In 1905, the crude birth rate for 15 selected countries averaged 44/1000 population. Western fertility at a comparable transition point was much lower at 30/1000. Between 1905 and 1960, fertility declines were evident in Uruguay, Argentina, Cuba, and Chile. Between 1960 and 1985, fertility declines appeared in Costa Rica, Panama, Brazil, and Colombia. Fertility declines were smaller in the other Latin American countries. Crude birth rates declined markedly by 1985 but may overestimate fertility decline, which is more accurately measured by standardized birth rates. Fertility decline was evident in Argentina, Chile, and Costa Rica for standardized birth rates, survivorship ratio, and births surviving past the age of 15 years. Theoretically, families are expected to reduce family size when survivorship is assured; when mortality is 25%, only four children need be planned instead of six when mortality is 50%. A result of falling mortality is a cheaper cost of producing children, which may stimulate parents to raise bigger families. Western fertility decline has been attributed to mortality decline, urbanization, increased female labor force participation, rising wages, and more efficient contraception. Comparable economic development in Latin America has not resulted in large enough changes to encourage family size limitation. A table of fertility and economic indicators for selected countries in Latin America and Europe reflects the inverse relationship between income growth, urban growth, and growth in female educational status and fertility. The regression equation explains 60% of the variation in fertility rates among Latin American countries. Explanatory power increases to 75% when female high school enrollment is added to per capita gross national product. Fertility declines in Latin America in the future will be dependent on economic development, educational advancement for women, and a reduction in rural population.

Mortality in HIV-Infected Alcohol and Drug Users in St. Petersburg, Russia.

PubMed

Fairbairn, Nadia S; Walley, Alexander Y; Cheng, Debbie M; Quinn, Emily; Bridden, Carly; Chaisson, Christine; Blokhina, Elena; Lioznov, Dmitry; Krupitsky, Evgeny; Raj, Anita; Samet, Jeffrey H

2016-01-01

In Russia, up to half of premature deaths are attributed to hazardous drinking. The respective roles of alcohol and drug use in premature death among people with HIV in Russia have not been described. Criminalization and stigmatization of substance use in Russia may also contribute to mortality. We explored whether alcohol, drug use and risk environment factors are associated with short-term mortality in HIV-infected Russians who use substances. Secondary analyses were conducted using prospective data collected at baseline, 6 and 12-months from HIV-infected people who use substances recruited between 2007-2010 from addiction and HIV care settings in a single urban setting of St. Petersburg, Russia. We used Cox proportional hazards models to explore associations between 30-day alcohol hazardous drinking, injection drug use, polysubstance use and environmental risk exposures (i.e. past incarceration, police involvement, selling sex, and HIV stigma) with mortality. Among 700 participants, 59% were male and the mean age was 30 years. There were 40 deaths after a median follow-up of 12 months (crude mortality rate 5.9 per 100 person-years). In adjusted analyses, 30-day NIAAA hazardous drinking was significantly associated with mortality compared to no drinking [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 2.60, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.24-5.44] but moderate drinking was not (aHR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.35-2.59). No other factors were significantly associated with mortality. The high rates of short-term mortality and the strong association with hazardous drinking suggest a need to integrate evidence-based alcohol interventions into treatment strategies for HIV-infected Russians.

Mortality among twins and singletons in sub-Saharan Africa between 1995 and 2014: a pooled analysis of data from 90 Demographic and Health Surveys in 30 countries.

PubMed

Monden, Christiaan W S; Smits, Jeroen

2017-07-01

Sub-Saharan Africa has the world's highest under-5 and neonatal mortality rates as well as the highest naturally occurring twin rates. Twin pregnancies carry high risk for children and mothers. Under-5 mortality has declined in sub-Saharan Africa over the last decades. It is unknown whether twins have shared in this reduction. We pooled data from 90 Demographic and Health Surveys for 30 sub-Saharan Africa countries on births reported between 1995 and 2014. We used information on 1 685 110 singleton and 56 597 twin livebirths to compute trends in mortality rates for singletons and twins. We examined whether the twin-singleton rate ratio can be attributed to biological, socioeconomic, care-related factors, or birth size, and estimated the mortality burden among sub-Saharan African twins. Under-5 mortality among twins has declined from 327·7 (95% CI 312·0-343·5) per 1000 livebirths in 1995-2001 to 213·0 (196·7-229·2) in 2009-14. This decline of 35·0% was much less steep than the 50·6% reduction among singletons (from 128·6 [95% CI 126·4-130·8] per 1000 livebirths in 1995-2001 to 63·5 [61·6-65·3] in 2009-14). Twins account for an increasing share of under-5 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa: currently 10·7% of under-5 mortality and 15·1% of neonatal mortality. We estimated that about 315 000 twins (uncertainty interval 289 000-343 000) die in sub-Saharan African each year. Excess twin mortality cannot be explained by common risk factors for under-5 mortality, including birthweight. The difference with singletons was especially stark for neonatal mortality (rate ratio 5·0, 95% CI 4·5-5·6). 51·7% of women pregnant with twins reported receiving medical assistance at birth. The fate of twins in sub-Saharan Africa is lagging behind that of singletons. An alarming one-fifth of twins in the region dies before age 5 years, three times the mortality rate among singletons. Twins account for a substantial and growing share of under-5 and neonatal mortality, but they are largely neglected in the literature. Coordinated action is required to improve the situation of this extremely vulnerable group. None. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimated Deaths Attributable to Social Factors in the United States

PubMed Central

Tracy, Melissa; Hoggatt, Katherine J.; DiMaggio, Charles; Karpati, Adam

2011-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the number of deaths attributable to social factors in the United States. Methods. We conducted a MEDLINE search for all English-language articles published between 1980 and 2007 with estimates of the relation between social factors and adult all-cause mortality. We calculated summary relative risk estimates of mortality, and we obtained and used prevalence estimates for each social factor to calculate the population-attributable fraction for each factor. We then calculated the number of deaths attributable to each social factor in the United States in 2000. Results. Approximately 245 000 deaths in the United States in 2000 were attributable to low education, 176 000 to racial segregation, 162 000 to low social support, 133 000 to individual-level poverty, 119 000 to income inequality, and 39 000 to area-level poverty. Conclusions. The estimated number of deaths attributable to social factors in the United States is comparable to the number attributed to pathophysiological and behavioral causes. These findings argue for a broader public health conceptualization of the causes of mortality and an expansive policy approach that considers how social factors can be addressed to improve the health of populations. PMID:21680937

Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century

PubMed Central

Case, Anne; Deaton, Angus

2017-01-01

SUMMARY We build on and extend the findings in Case and Deaton (2015) on increases in mortality and morbidity among white non-Hispanic Americans in midlife since the turn of the century. Increases in all-cause mortality continued unabated to 2015, with additional increases in drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol-related liver mortality, particularly among those with a high-school degree or less. The decline in mortality from heart disease has slowed and, most recently, stopped, and this combined with the three other causes is responsible for the increase in all-cause mortality. Not only are educational differences in mortality among whites increasing, but from 1998 to 2015 mortality rose for those without, and fell for those with, a college degree. This is true for non-Hispanic white men and women in all five year age groups from 35–39 through 55–59. Mortality rates among blacks and Hispanics continued to fall; in 1999, the mortality rate of white non-Hispanics aged 50–54 with only a high-school degree was 30 percent lower than the mortality rate of blacks in the same age group but irrespective of education; by 2015, it was 30 percent higher. There are similar crossovers in all age groups from 25–29 to 60–64. Mortality rates in comparable rich countries have continued their pre-millennial fall at the rates that used to characterize the US. In contrast to the US, mortality rates in Europe are falling for those with low levels of educational attainment, and have fallen further over this period than mortality rates for those with higher levels of education. Many commentators have suggested that poor mortality outcomes can be attributed to contemporaneous levels of resources, particularly to slowly growing, stagnant, and even declining incomes; we evaluate this possibility, but find that it cannot provide a comprehensive explanation. In particular, the income profiles for blacks and Hispanics, whose mortality rates have fallen, are no better than those for whites. Nor is there any evidence in the European data that mortality trends match income trends, in spite of sharply different patterns of median income across countries after the Great Recession. We propose a preliminary but plausible story in which cumulative disadvantage from one birth cohort to the next, in the labor market, in marriage and child outcomes, and in health, is triggered by progressively worsening labor market opportunities at the time of entry for whites with low levels of education. This account, which fits much of the data, has the profoundly negative implication that policies, even ones that successfully improve earnings and jobs, or redistribute income, will take many years to reverse the mortality and morbidity increase, and that those in midlife now are likely to do much worse in old age than those currently older than 65. This is in contrast to an account in which resources affect health contemporaneously, so that those in midlife now can expect to do better in old age as they receive Social Security and Medicare. None of this implies that there are no policy levers to be pulled; preventing the over-prescription of opioids is an obvious target that would clearly be helpful. PMID:29033460

The impact of healthcare spending on health outcomes: A meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Gallet, Craig A; Doucouliagos, Hristos

2017-04-01

While numerous studies assess the impact of healthcare spending on health outcomes, typically reporting multiple estimates of the elasticity of health outcomes (most often measured by a mortality rate or life expectancy) with respect to healthcare spending, the extent to which study attributes influence these elasticity estimates is unclear. Accordingly, we utilize a meta-data set (consisting of 65 studies completed over the 1969-2014 period) to examine these elasticity estimates using meta-regression analysis (MRA). Correcting for a number of issues, including publication selection bias, healthcare spending is found to have the greatest impact on the mortality rate compared to life expectancy. Indeed, conditional on several features of the literature, the spending elasticity for mortality is near -0.13, whereas it is near to +0.04 for life expectancy. MRA results reveal that the spending elasticity for the mortality rate is particularly sensitive to data aggregation, the specification of the health production function, and the nature of healthcare spending. The spending elasticity for life expectancy is particularly sensitive to the age at which life expectancy is measured, as well as the decision to control for the endogeneity of spending in the health production function. With such results in hand, we have a better understanding of how modeling choices influence results reported in this literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differential host mortality explains the effect of high temperature on the prevalence of a marine pathogen

PubMed Central

Neigel, Joseph E.

2017-01-01

Infectious diseases threaten marine populations, and the extent of their impacts is often assessed by prevalence of infection (the proportion of infected individuals). Changes in prevalence are often attributed to altered rates of transmission, although the rates of birth, recovery, and mortality also determine prevalence. The parasitic dinoflagellate Hematodinium perezi causes a severe, often fatal disease in blue crabs. It has been speculated that decreases in prevalence associated with high temperatures result from lower rates of infection. We used field collections, environmental sensor data, and high-temperature exposure experiments to investigate the factors that change prevalence of infections in blue crab megalopae (post-larvae). These megalopae migrate from offshore waters, where temperatures are moderate, to marshes where temperatures may be extremely high. Within a few days of arriving in the marsh, the megalopae metamorphose into juvenile crabs. We found a strong negative association between prevalence of Hematodinium infection in megalopae and the cumulative time water temperatures in the marsh exceeded 34°C over the preceding two days. Temperatures this high are known to be lethal for blue crabs, suggesting that higher mortality of infected megalopae could be the cause of reduced prevalence. Experimental exposure of megalopae from the marsh to a temperature of 34°C resulted in higher mortality for infected than uninfected individuals, and decreased the prevalence of infection among survivors from 18% to 3%. PMID:29084257

The lot of female child in an economically weaker society.

PubMed

Grover, V L; Roy, S N

1990-01-01

The study aim was to determine the demographic profile of female children 0-14 years old living in urban slums in Delhi, India. The sample included 1680 slum dwellers in 386 households, of whom 733 were children 0-14 years old. The sex ratio of the sample population was 900 females per 1000 males, compared to the national ratio of 933 females per 1000 males. The sample population included 796 females and 884 males. The sex ratio among children 0-14 years old in the sample was 960 females per 1000 males. School enrollment of children 5-14 years old numbered 232 (50.4%): 46% males and 27.5% females. The lower enrollment of females in slum areas compared to the national average was attributed to the greater participation of young girls in domestic work. 22% of children 0-14 years old were married. The infant mortality rate was 143.2/1000 live births. The crude death rate was 19.64/1000 population, which was 150% higher than the national rate. Female mortality among those 0-6 years old was higher than male mortality; after 6 years of age, male mortality was higher. The study revealed the needs of female children in urban slum areas of India. Government and voluntary agencies must work together in the areas of social work, nutrition, education, health among the poor urban female population in India.

Causes of death and infant mortality rates among full-term births in the United States between 2010 and 2012: An observational study.

PubMed

Bairoliya, Neha; Fink, Günther

2018-03-01

While the high prevalence of preterm births and its impact on infant mortality in the US have been widely acknowledged, recent data suggest that even full-term births in the US face substantially higher mortality risks compared to European countries with low infant mortality rates. In this paper, we use the most recent birth records in the US to more closely analyze the primary causes underlying mortality rates among full-term births. Linked birth and death records for the period 2010-2012 were used to identify the state- and cause-specific burden of infant mortality among full-term infants (born at 37-42 weeks of gestation). Multivariable logistic models were used to assess the extent to which state-level differences in full-term infant mortality (FTIM) were attributable to observed differences in maternal and birth characteristics. Random effects models were used to assess the relative contribution of state-level variation to FTIM. Hypothetical mortality outcomes were computed under the assumption that all states could achieve the survival rates of the best-performing states. A total of 10,175,481 infants born full-term in the US between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2012, were analyzed. FTIM rate (FTIMR) was 2.2 per 1,000 live births overall, and ranged between 1.29 (Connecticut, 95% CI 1.08, 1.53) and 3.77 (Mississippi, 95% CI 3.39, 4.19) at the state level. Zero states reached the rates reported in the 6 low-mortality European countries analyzed (FTIMR < 1.25), and 13 states had FTIMR > 2.75. Sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) accounted for 43% of FTIM; congenital malformations and perinatal conditions accounted for 31% and 11.3% of FTIM, respectively. The largest mortality differentials between states with good and states with poor FTIMR were found for SUDI, with particularly large risk differentials for deaths due to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (odds ratio [OR] 2.52, 95% CI 1.86, 3.42) and suffocation (OR 4.40, 95% CI 3.71, 5.21). Even though these mortality differences were partially explained by state-level differences in maternal education, race, and maternal health, substantial state-level variation in infant mortality remained in fully adjusted models (SIDS OR 1.45, suffocation OR 2.92). The extent to which these state differentials are due to differential antenatal care standards as well as differential access to health services could not be determined due to data limitations. Overall, our estimates suggest that infant mortality could be reduced by 4,003 deaths (95% CI 2,284, 5,587) annually if all states were to achieve the mortality levels of the best-performing state in each cause-of-death category. Key limitations of the analysis are that information on termination rates at the state level was not available, and that causes of deaths may have been coded differentially across states. More than 7,000 full-term infants die in the US each year. The results presented in this paper suggest that a substantial share of these deaths may be preventable. Potential improvements seem particularly large for SUDI, where very low rates have been achieved in a few states while average mortality rates remain high in most other areas. Given the high mortality burden due to SIDS and suffocation, policy efforts to promote compliance with recommended sleeping arrangements could be an effective first step in this direction.

Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

PubMed

Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Contrasting male and female trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in China: evidence from successive nationwide prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Chen, Zhengming; Peto, Richard; Zhou, Maigeng; Iona, Andri; Smith, Margaret; Yang, Ling; Guo, Yu; Chen, Yiping; Bian, Zheng; Lancaster, Garry; Sherliker, Paul; Pang, Shutao; Wang, Hao; Su, Hua; Wu, Ming; Wu, Xianping; Chen, Junshi; Collins, Rory; Li, Liming

2015-10-10

Chinese men now smoke more than a third of the world's cigarettes, following a large increase in urban then rural usage. Conversely, Chinese women now smoke far less than in previous generations. We assess the oppositely changing effects of tobacco on male and female mortality. Two nationwide prospective studies 15 years apart recruited 220,000 men in about 1991 at ages 40-79 years (first study) and 210,000 men and 300,000 women in about 2006 at ages 35-74 years (second study), with follow-up during 1991-99 (mid-year 1995) and 2006-14 (mid-year 2010), respectively. Cox regression yielded sex-specific adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) comparing smokers (including any who had stopped because of illness, but not the other ex-smokers, who are described as having stopped by choice) versus never-smokers. Two-thirds of the men smoked; there was little dependence of male smoking prevalence on age, but many smokers had not smoked cigarettes throughout adult life. Comparing men born before and since 1950, in the older generation, the age at which smoking had started was later and, particularly in rural areas, lifelong exclusive cigarette use was less common than in the younger generation. Comparing male mortality RRs in the first study (mid-year 1995) versus those in the second study (mid-year 2010), the proportional excess risk among smokers (RR-1) approximately doubled over this 15-year period (urban: RR 1·32 [95% CI 1·24-1·41] vs 1·65 [1·53-1·79]; rural: RR 1·13 [1·09-1·17] vs 1·22 [1·16-1·29]), as did the smoking-attributed fraction of deaths at ages 40-79 years (urban: 17% vs 26%; rural: 9% vs 14%). In the second study, urban male smokers who had started before age 20 years (which is now typical among both urban and rural young men) had twice the never-smoker mortality rate (RR 1·98, 1·79-2·19, approaching Western RRs), with substantial excess mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD RR 9·09, 5·11-16·15), lung cancer (RR 3·78, 2·78-5·14), and ischaemic stroke or ischaemic heart disease (combined RR 2·03, 1·66-2·47). Ex-smokers who had stopped by choice (only 3% of ever-smokers in 1991, but 9% in 2006) had little smoking-attributed risk more than 10 years after stopping. Among Chinese women, however, there has been a tenfold intergenerational reduction in smoking uptake rates. In the second study, among women born in the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and since 1960 the proportions who had smoked were, respectively, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1% (3097/30,943, 3265/62,246, 2339/97,344, and 1068/111,933). The smoker versus non-smoker RR of 1·51 (1·40-1·63) for all female mortality at ages 40-79 years accounted for 5%, 3%, 1%, and <1%, respectively, of all the female deaths in these four successive birth cohorts. In 2010, smoking caused about 1 million (840,000 male, 130,000 female) deaths in China. Smoking will cause about 20% of all adult male deaths in China during the 2010s. The tobacco-attributed proportion is increasing in men, but low, and decreasing, in women. Although overall adult mortality rates are falling, as the adult population of China grows and the proportion of male deaths due to smoking increases, the annual number of deaths in China that are caused by tobacco will rise from about 1 million in 2010 to 2 million in 2030 and 3 million in 2050, unless there is widespread cessation. Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese MoST and NSFC. Copyright © 2015 Chen et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Contrasting male and female trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in China: evidence from successive nationwide prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhengming; Peto, Richard; Zhou, Maigeng; Iona, Andri; Smith, Margaret; Yang, Ling; Guo, Yu; Chen, Yiping; Bian, Zheng; Lancaster, Garry; Sherliker, Paul; Pang, Shutao; Wang, Hao; Su, Hua; Wu, Ming; Wu, Xianping; Chen, Junshi; Collins, Rory; Li, Liming

2015-01-01

Summary Background Chinese men now smoke more than a third of the world's cigarettes, following a large increase in urban then rural usage. Conversely, Chinese women now smoke far less than in previous generations. We assess the oppositely changing effects of tobacco on male and female mortality. Methods Two nationwide prospective studies 15 years apart recruited 220 000 men in about 1991 at ages 40–79 years (first study) and 210 000 men and 300 000 women in about 2006 at ages 35–74 years (second study), with follow-up during 1991–99 (mid-year 1995) and 2006–14 (mid-year 2010), respectively. Cox regression yielded sex-specific adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) comparing smokers (including any who had stopped because of illness, but not the other ex-smokers, who are described as having stopped by choice) versus never-smokers. Findings Two-thirds of the men smoked; there was little dependence of male smoking prevalence on age, but many smokers had not smoked cigarettes throughout adult life. Comparing men born before and since 1950, in the older generation, the age at which smoking had started was later and, particularly in rural areas, lifelong exclusive cigarette use was less common than in the younger generation. Comparing male mortality RRs in the first study (mid-year 1995) versus those in the second study (mid-year 2010), the proportional excess risk among smokers (RR-1) approximately doubled over this 15-year period (urban: RR 1·32 [95% CI 1·24–1·41] vs 1·65 [1·53–1·79]; rural: RR 1·13 [1·09–1·17] vs 1·22 [1·16–1·29]), as did the smoking-attributed fraction of deaths at ages 40–79 years (urban: 17% vs 26%; rural: 9% vs 14%). In the second study, urban male smokers who had started before age 20 years (which is now typical among both urban and rural young men) had twice the never-smoker mortality rate (RR 1·98, 1·79–2·19, approaching Western RRs), with substantial excess mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD RR 9·09, 5·11–16·15), lung cancer (RR 3·78, 2·78–5·14), and ischaemic stroke or ischaemic heart disease (combined RR 2·03, 1·66–2·47). Ex-smokers who had stopped by choice (only 3% of ever-smokers in 1991, but 9% in 2006) had little smoking-attributed risk more than 10 years after stopping. Among Chinese women, however, there has been a tenfold intergenerational reduction in smoking uptake rates. In the second study, among women born in the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and since 1960 the proportions who had smoked were, respectively, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1% (3097/30 943, 3265/62 246, 2339/97 344, and 1068/111 933). The smoker versus non-smoker RR of 1·51 (1·40–1·63) for all female mortality at ages 40–79 years accounted for 5%, 3%, 1%, and <1%, respectively, of all the female deaths in these four successive birth cohorts. In 2010, smoking caused about 1 million (840 000 male, 130 000 female) deaths in China. Interpretation Smoking will cause about 20% of all adult male deaths in China during the 2010s. The tobacco-attributed proportion is increasing in men, but low, and decreasing, in women. Although overall adult mortality rates are falling, as the adult population of China grows and the proportion of male deaths due to smoking increases, the annual number of deaths in China that are caused by tobacco will rise from about 1 million in 2010 to 2 million in 2030 and 3 million in 2050, unless there is widespread cessation. Funding Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese MoST and NSFC PMID:26466050

The Epidemic of Despair Among White Americans: Trends in the Leading Causes of Premature Death, 1999–2015

PubMed Central

Gennuso, Keith P.; Ugboaja, Donna C.; Remington, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

Objectives. To evaluate trends in premature death rates by cause of death, age, race, and urbanization level in the United States. Methods. We calculated cause-specific death rates using the Compressed Mortality File, National Center for Health Statistics data for adults aged 25 to 64 years in 2 time periods: 1999 to 2001 and 2013 to 2015. We defined 48 subpopulations by 10-year age groups, race/ethnicity, and county urbanization level (large urban, suburban, small or medium metropolitan, and rural). Results. The age-adjusted premature death rates for all adults declined by 8% between 1999 to 2001 and 2013 to 2015, with decreases in 39 of the 48 subpopulations. Most decreases in death rates were attributable to HIV, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. All 9 subpopulations with increased death rates were non-Hispanic Whites, largely outside large urban areas. Most increases in death rates were attributable to suicide, poisoning, and liver disease. Conclusions. The unfavorable recent trends in premature death rate among non-Hispanic Whites outside large urban areas were primarily caused by self-destructive health behaviors likely related to underlying social and economic factors in these communities. PMID:28817333

The Epidemic of Despair Among White Americans: Trends in the Leading Causes of Premature Death, 1999-2015.

PubMed

Stein, Elizabeth M; Gennuso, Keith P; Ugboaja, Donna C; Remington, Patrick L

2017-10-01

To evaluate trends in premature death rates by cause of death, age, race, and urbanization level in the United States. We calculated cause-specific death rates using the Compressed Mortality File, National Center for Health Statistics data for adults aged 25 to 64 years in 2 time periods: 1999 to 2001 and 2013 to 2015. We defined 48 subpopulations by 10-year age groups, race/ethnicity, and county urbanization level (large urban, suburban, small or medium metropolitan, and rural). The age-adjusted premature death rates for all adults declined by 8% between 1999 to 2001 and 2013 to 2015, with decreases in 39 of the 48 subpopulations. Most decreases in death rates were attributable to HIV, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. All 9 subpopulations with increased death rates were non-Hispanic Whites, largely outside large urban areas. Most increases in death rates were attributable to suicide, poisoning, and liver disease. The unfavorable recent trends in premature death rate among non-Hispanic Whites outside large urban areas were primarily caused by self-destructive health behaviors likely related to underlying social and economic factors in these communities.

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments.

PubMed

Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Rastam, Samer; Saidi, Olfa; Sözmen, Kaan; Shoaibi, Azza; Husseini, Abdullatif; Fouad, Fouad; Ben Mansour, Nadia; Aissi, Wafa; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Unal, Belgin; Bandosz, Piotr; Bennett, Kathleen; Dherani, Mukesh; Al Ali, Radwan; Maziak, Wasim; Arık, Hale; Gerçeklioğlu, Gül; Altun, Deniz Utku; Şimşek, Hatice; Doganay, Sinem; Demiral, Yücel; Aslan, Özgür; Unwin, Nigel; Phillimore, Peter; Achour, Nourredine; Aissi, Waffa; Allani, Riadh; Arfa, Chokra; Abu-Kteish, Heidar; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Al Ali, Radwan; Altun, Deniz; Ahmad, Balsam; Arık, Hale; Aslan, Özgür; Beltaifa, Latifa; Ben Mansour, Nadia; Bennett, Kathleen; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Ben Salah, Nabil; Collins, Marissa; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; Dherani, Mukesh; Demiral, Yücel; Doganay, Sinem; Elias, Madonna; Ergör, Gül; Fadhil, Ibtihal; Fouad, Fouad; Gerçeklioğlu, Gül; Ghandour, Rula; Göğen, Sibel; Husseini, Abdullatif; Jaber, Samer; Kalaca, Sibel; Khatib, Rana; Khatib, Rasha; Koudsie, Saer; Kilic, Bülent; Lassoued, Olfa; Mason, Helen; Maziak, Wasim; Mayaleh, Maher Abou; Mikki, Nahed; Moukeh, Ghmaez; Flaherty, Martin O; Phillimore, Peter; Rastam, Samer; Roglic, Gojka; Saidi, Olfa; Saatli, Gül; Satman, Ilhan; Shoaibi, Azza; Şimşek, Hatice; Soulaiman, Nesrien; Sözmen, Kaan; Tlili, Faten; Unal, Belgin; Unwin, Nigel; Yardim, Nazan; Zaman, Shahaduz

2016-04-01

Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduction in child mortality in Ethiopia: analysis of data from demographic and health surveys.

PubMed

Doherty, Tanya; Rohde, Sarah; Besada, Donela; Kerber, Kate; Manda, Samuel; Loveday, Marian; Nsibande, Duduzile; Daviaud, Emmanuelle; Kinney, Mary; Zembe, Wanga; Leon, Natalie; Rudan, Igor; Degefie, Tedbabe; Sanders, David

2016-12-01

To examine changes in under-5 mortality, coverage of child survival interventions and nutritional status of children in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011. Using the Lives Saved Tool, the impact of changes in coverage of child survival interventions on under-5 lives saved was estimated. Estimates of child mortality were generated using three Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys undertaken between 2000 and 2011. Coverage indicators for high impact child health interventions were calculated and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate child lives saved in 2011. The mortality rate in children younger than 5 years decreased rapidly from 218 child deaths per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval 183 to 252) in the period 1987-1991 to 88 child deaths per 1000 live births in the period 2007-2011 (78 to 98). The prevalence of moderate or severe stunting in children aged 6-35 months also declined significantly. Improvements in the coverage of interventions relevant to child survival in rural areas of Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011 were found for tetanus toxoid, DPT3 and measles vaccination, oral rehydration solution (ORS) and care-seeking for suspected pneumonia. The LiST analysis estimates that there were 60 700 child deaths averted in 2011, primarily attributable to decreases in wasting rates (18%), stunting rates (13%) and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions (13%). Improvements in the nutritional status of children and increases in coverage of high impact interventions most notably WASH and ORS have contributed to the decline in under-5 mortality in Ethiopia. These proximal determinants however do not fully explain the mortality reduction which is plausibly also due to the synergistic effect of major child health and nutrition policies and delivery strategies.

Trends in educational inequalities in premature mortality in Belgium between the 1990s and the 2000s: the contribution of specific causes of deaths.

PubMed

Renard, Françoise; Gadeyne, Sylvie; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Tafforeau, Jean; Deboosere, Patrick

2017-04-01

Reducing socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, a key public health objective may be supported by a careful monitoring and assessment of the contributions of specific causes of death to the global inequality. The 1991 and 2001 Belgian censuses were linked with cause-of-death data, each yielding a study population of over 5 million individuals aged 25-64, followed up for 5 years. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) were computed by educational level (EL) and cause. Inequalities were measured through rate differences (RDs), rate ratios (RRs) and population attributable fractions (PAFs). We analysed changes in educational inequalities between the 1990s and the 2000s, and decomposed the PAF into the main causes of death. All-cause and avoidable ASMR decreased in all ELs and both sexes. Lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and suicide in men, and IHD, stroke, lung cancer and COPD in women had the highest impact on population mortality. RDs decreased in men but increased in women. RRs and PAFs increased in both sexes, albeit more in women. In men, the impact of lung cancer and COPD inequalities on population mortality decreased while that of suicide and IHD increased. In women, the impact of all causes except IHD increased. Absolute inequalities decreased in men while increasing in women; relative inequalities increased in both sexes. The PAFs decomposition revealed that targeting mortality inequalities from lung cancer, IHD, COPD in both sexes, suicide in men and stroke in women would have the largest impact at population level. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Endovascular thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke in failed intravenous tissue plasminogen activator versus non-intravenous tissue plasminogen activator patients: revascularization and outcomes stratified by the site of arterial occlusions.

PubMed

Shi, Zhong-Song; Loh, Yince; Walker, Gary; Duckwiler, Gary R

2010-06-01

Intracranial mechanical thrombectomy is a therapeutic option for acute ischemic stroke patients failing intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV tPA). We compared patients treated by mechanical embolus removal in cerebral ischemia (MERCI) thrombectomy after failed IV tPA with those treated with thrombectomy alone. We pooled MERCI and Multi MERCI study patients, grouped them either as failed IV tPA or non-IV tPA, and assessed revascularization rates, procedural complications, symptomatic hemorrhage rates, clinical outcomes, and mortality. We also evaluated outcomes stratified by the occlusion site and final revascularization. Among 305 patients, 48 failed, and 257 were ineligible for IV tPA. Nonresponders to IV tPA trended toward a higher revascularization rate (73% versus 63%) and less mortality (27.7% versus 40.1%) and had similar rates of symptomatic hemorrhage and procedural complications. Favorable 90-day outcomes were similar in failed and non-IV tPA patients (38% versus 31%), with no difference according to occlusion site. Among patients failing IV tPA, good outcomes tended to occur more frequently in revascularized patients (47.1% versus 15.4%), although this relationship was attributable solely to middle cerebral artery and not internal carotid artery occlusions, with no difference in mortality. Among IV tPA-ineligible patients, revascularization correlated with good outcome (47.4% versus 4.4%) and less mortality (28.5% versus 59.6%). The risks of hemorrhage and procedure-related complications after mechanical thrombectomy do not differ with respect to previous IV tPA administration. Thrombectomy after IV tPA achieves similar rates of good outcomes, a tendency toward lower mortality, and similar revascularization rates when stratified by clot location. Good outcomes correlate with successful revascularization except with internal carotid artery occlusions in tPA-nonresponders.

Association of Race With Mortality and Cardiovascular Events in a Large Cohort of US Veterans.

PubMed

Kovesdy, Csaba P; Norris, Keith C; Boulware, L Ebony; Lu, Jun L; Ma, Jennie Z; Streja, Elani; Molnar, Miklos Z; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

2015-10-20

In the general population, blacks experience higher mortality than their white peers, attributed in part to their lower socioeconomic status, reduced access to care, and possibly intrinsic biological factors. Patients with kidney disease are a notable exception, among whom blacks experience lower mortality. It is unclear if similar differences affecting outcomes exist in patients with no kidney disease but with equal or similar access to health care. We compared all-cause mortality, incident coronary heart disease, and incident ischemic stroke using multivariable-adjusted Cox models in a nationwide cohort of 547 441 black and 2 525 525 white patients with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥ 60 mL·min⁻¹·1.73 m⁻² receiving care from the US Veterans Health Administration. In parallel analyses, we compared outcomes in black versus white individuals in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999 to 2004. After multivariable adjustments in veterans, black race was associated with 24% lower all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.77; P<0.001) and 37% lower incidence of coronary heart disease (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.65; P<0.001) but a similar incidence of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.01; P=0.3). Black race was associated with a 42% higher adjusted mortality among individuals with estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥ 60 mL·min⁻¹·1.73 m⁻² in NHANES (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.87). Black veterans with normal estimated glomerular filtration rate and equal access to healthcare have lower all-cause mortality and incidence of coronary heart disease and a similar incidence of ischemic stroke. These associations are in contrast to the higher mortality experienced by black individuals in the general US population. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Age- and gender-specific population attributable risks of metabolic disorders on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Taiwan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The extent of attributable risks of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components on mortality remains unclear, especially with respect to age and gender. We aimed to assess the age- and gender-specific population attributable risks (PARs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality and all-cause mortality for public health planning. Methods A total of 2,092 men and 2,197 women 30 years of age and older, who were included in the 2002 Taiwan Survey of Hypertension, Hyperglycemia, and Hyperlipidemia (TwSHHH), were linked to national death certificates acquired through December 31, 2009. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios and PARs for mortality, with a median follow-up of 7.7 years. Results The respective PAR percentages of MetS for all-cause and CVD-related mortality were 11.6 and 39.2 in men, respectively, and 18.6 and 44.4 in women, respectively. Central obesity had the highest PAR for CVD mortality in women (57.5%), whereas arterial hypertension had the highest PAR in men (57.5%). For all-cause mortality, younger men and post-menopausal women had higher PARs related to Mets and its components; for CVD mortality, post-menopausal women had higher overall PARs than their pre-menopausal counterparts. Conclusions MetS has a limited application to the PAR for all-cause mortality, especially in men; its PAR for CVD mortality is more evident. For CVD mortality, MetS components have higher PARs than MetS itself, especially hypertension in men and waist circumference in post-menopausal women. In addition, PARs for diabetes mellitus and low HDL-cholesterol may exceed 20%. We suggest differential control of risk factors in different subpopulation as a strategy to prevent CVD-related mortality. PMID:22321049

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006.

PubMed

Rastam, Samer; Al Ali, Radwan; Maziak, Wasim; Mzayek, Fawaz; Fouad, Fouad M; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon

2012-09-09

Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.

Chronic air pollution and social deprivation as modifiers of the association between high temperature and daily mortality

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Heat and air pollution are both associated with increases in mortality. However, the interactive effect of temperature and air pollution on mortality remains unsettled. Similarly, the relationship between air pollution, air temperature, and social deprivation has never been explored. Methods We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009, daily mean temperature variables and relative humidity, for Paris, France. Estimates of chronic exposure to air pollution and social deprivation at a small spatial scale were calculated and split into three strata. We developed a stratified Poisson regression models to assess daily temperature and mortality associations, and tested the heterogeneity of the regression coefficients of the different strata. Deaths due to ambient temperature were calculated from attributable fractions and mortality rates were estimated. Results We found that chronic air pollution exposure and social deprivation are effect modifiers of the association between daily temperature and mortality. We found a potential interactive effect between social deprivation and chronic exposure with regards to air pollution in the mortality-temperature relationship. Conclusion Our results may have implications in considering chronically polluted areas as vulnerable in heat action plans and in the long-term measures to reduce the burden of heat stress especially in the context of climate change. PMID:24941876

Chronic air pollution and social deprivation as modifiers of the association between high temperature and daily mortality.

PubMed

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Oulhote, Youssef; Petit, Claire; Lapostolle, Annabelle; Chauvin, Pierre; Zmirou-Navier, Denis; Deguen, Séverine

2014-06-18

Heat and air pollution are both associated with increases in mortality. However, the interactive effect of temperature and air pollution on mortality remains unsettled. Similarly, the relationship between air pollution, air temperature, and social deprivation has never been explored. We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009, daily mean temperature variables and relative humidity, for Paris, France. Estimates of chronic exposure to air pollution and social deprivation at a small spatial scale were calculated and split into three strata. We developed a stratified Poisson regression models to assess daily temperature and mortality associations, and tested the heterogeneity of the regression coefficients of the different strata. Deaths due to ambient temperature were calculated from attributable fractions and mortality rates were estimated. We found that chronic air pollution exposure and social deprivation are effect modifiers of the association between daily temperature and mortality. We found a potential interactive effect between social deprivation and chronic exposure with regards to air pollution in the mortality-temperature relationship. Our results may have implications in considering chronically polluted areas as vulnerable in heat action plans and in the long-term measures to reduce the burden of heat stress especially in the context of climate change.

Poisoning severity score, APACHE II and GCS: effective clinical indices for estimating severity and predicting outcome of acute organophosphorus and carbamate poisoning.

PubMed

Sam, Kishore Gnana; Kondabolu, Krishnakanth; Pati, Dipanwita; Kamath, Asha; Pradeep Kumar, G; Rao, Padma G M

2009-07-01

Self-poisoning with organophosphorus (OP) compounds is a major cause of morbidity and mortality across South Asian countries. To develop uniform and effective management guidelines, the severity of acute OP poisoning should be assessed through scientific methods and a clinical database should be maintained. A prospective descriptive survey was carried out to assess the utility of severity scales in predicting the outcome of 71 organophosphate (OP) and carbamate poisoning patients admitted during a one year period at the Kasturba Hospital, Manipal, India. The Glasgow coma scale (GCS) scores, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, predicted mortality rate (PMR) and Poisoning severity score (PSS) were estimated within 24h of admission. Significant correlation (P<0.05) between PSS and GCS and APACHE II and PMR scores were observed with the PSS scores predicting mortality significantly (P< or =0.001). A total of 84.5% patients improved after treatment while 8.5% of the patients were discharged with severe morbidity. The mortality rate was 7.0%. Suicidal poisoning was observed to be the major cause (80.2%), while other reasons attributed were occupational (9.1%), accidental (6.6%), homicidal (1.6%) and unknown (2.5%) reasons. This study highlights the application of clinical indices like GCS, APACHE, PMR and severity scores in predicting mortality and may be considered for planning standard treatment guidelines.

Mortality Salience, System Justification, and Candidate Evaluations in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election.

PubMed

Sterling, Joanna; Jost, John T; Shrout, Patrick E

2016-01-01

Experiments conducted during the 2004 and 2008 U.S. presidential elections suggested that mortality salience primes increased support for President George W. Bush and Senator John McCain, respectively. Some interpreted these results as reflecting "conservative shift" following exposure to threat, whereas others emphasized preferences for "charismatic" leadership following exposure to death primes. To assess both hypotheses in the context of a new election cycle featuring a liberal incumbent who was considered to be charismatic, we conducted four experiments shortly before the 2012 election involving President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney. Contrary to earlier studies, there was little evidence that mortality salience, either by itself or in interaction with political orientation, affected overall candidate ratings or voting intentions. However, a significant interaction between mortality salience and system justification in some studies indicated a more circumscribed effect. The failure to "replicate" previous results in the context of this election may be attributable to disagreement among participants as to which of the candidates better represented the societal status quo.

The life expectancy gap between North and South Korea from 1993 to 2008.

PubMed

Bahk, Jinwook; Ezzati, Majid; Khang, Young-Ho

2018-03-12

Comparative research on health outcomes in North and South Korea offers a unique opportunity to explore political and social determinants of health. We examined the age- and cause-specific contributions to the life expectancy (LE) gap between the two Koreas. We calculated the LE at birth in 1993 and 2008 among North and South Koreans, and cause-specific contributions to the LE discrepancy between the two Koreas in 2008. The cause-specific mortality data from South Korea were used as proxies for the cause-specific mortality data in North Korea in 2008. The LE gap between the two Koreas was approximately 1 year in 1993, but grew to approximately 10 years in 2008. This discrepancy was attributable to increased gaps in mortality among children younger than 1 year and adults 55 years of age or older. The major causes of the increased LE gap were circulatory diseases, digestive diseases, infant mortality, external causes, cancers and infectious diseases. This study underscores the urgency of South Korean and international humanitarian aid programs to reduce the mortality rate of the North Korean people.

Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly: an analysis of European data

PubMed Central

Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Csáky-Szunyogh, Melinda; de Walle, Hermien E K; Dias, Carlos Matias; Draper, Elizabeth; Gatt, Miriam; Garne, Ester; Haeusler, Martin; Källén, Karin; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; McDonnell, Bob; Mullaney, Carmel; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O’Mahony, Mary; Queisser-Wahrendorf, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Wreyford, Ben; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Dolk, Helen

2018-01-01

Objective To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) in the interpretation of infant mortality statistics. Design, setting and outcome measures EUROCAT is a network of congenital anomaly registries collecting data on live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks’ gestation and TOPFA. Data from 29 registries in 19 countries were analysed for 2005–2009, and infant mortality (deaths of live births at age <1 year) compared with the WHO Mortality Database. Eight EUROCAT countries were excluded from further analysis on the basis that this comparison showed poor ascertainment of survival status. Results According to WHO, 17%–42% of infant mortality was attributed to congenital anomaly. In 11 EUROCAT countries, average infant mortality with congenital anomaly was 1.1 per 1000 births, with higher rates where TOPFA is illegal (Malta 3.0, Ireland 2.1). The rate of stillbirths with congenital anomaly was 0.6 per 1000. The average TOPFA prevalence was 4.6 per 1000, nearly three times more prevalent than stillbirths and infant deaths combined. TOPFA also impacted on the prevalence of postneonatal survivors with non-lethal congenital anomaly. Conclusions By excluding TOPFA and stillbirths from GBD years of life lost (YLL) estimates, GBD underestimates the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. PMID:28667189

An update of cancer mortality among chrysotile asbestos miners in Balangero, northern Italy.

PubMed Central

Piolatto, G; Negri, E; La Vecchia, C; Pira, E; Decarli, A; Peto, J

1990-01-01

The mortality experience of a cohort of chrysotile miners employed since 1946 in Balangero, northern Italy was updated to the end of 1987 giving a total of 427 deaths out of 27,010 man-years at risk. A substantial excess mortality for all causes (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 149) was found, mainly because of high rates for some alcohol related deaths (hepatic cirrhosis, accidents). For mortality from cancer, however, the number of observed deaths (82) was close to that expected (76.2). The SMR was raised for oral cancer (SMR 231 based on six deaths), cancer of the larynx (SMR 267 based on eight deaths), and pleura (SMR 667 based on two deaths), although the excess only reached statistical significance for cancer of the larynx. Rates were not increased for lung, stomach, or any other type of cancer. No consistent association was seen with duration or cumulative dust exposure (fibre-years) for oral cancer, but the greatest risks for laryngeal and pleural cancer were in the highest category of duration and degree of exposure to fibres. Although part of the excess mortality from laryngeal cancer is probably attributable to high alcohol consumption in this group of workers, the data suggest that exposure to chrysotile asbestos (or to the fibre balangeroite that accounts for 0.2-0.5% of total mass in the mine) is associated with some, however moderate, excess risk of laryngeal cancer and pleural mesothelioma. The absence of excess mortality from lung cancer in this cohort is difficult to interpret. Images PMID:2176805

An update of cancer mortality among chrysotile asbestos miners in Balangero, northern Italy.

PubMed

Piolatto, G; Negri, E; La Vecchia, C; Pira, E; Decarli, A; Peto, J

1990-12-01

The mortality experience of a cohort of chrysotile miners employed since 1946 in Balangero, northern Italy was updated to the end of 1987 giving a total of 427 deaths out of 27,010 man-years at risk. A substantial excess mortality for all causes (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 149) was found, mainly because of high rates for some alcohol related deaths (hepatic cirrhosis, accidents). For mortality from cancer, however, the number of observed deaths (82) was close to that expected (76.2). The SMR was raised for oral cancer (SMR 231 based on six deaths), cancer of the larynx (SMR 267 based on eight deaths), and pleura (SMR 667 based on two deaths), although the excess only reached statistical significance for cancer of the larynx. Rates were not increased for lung, stomach, or any other type of cancer. No consistent association was seen with duration or cumulative dust exposure (fibre-years) for oral cancer, but the greatest risks for laryngeal and pleural cancer were in the highest category of duration and degree of exposure to fibres. Although part of the excess mortality from laryngeal cancer is probably attributable to high alcohol consumption in this group of workers, the data suggest that exposure to chrysotile asbestos (or to the fibre balangeroite that accounts for 0.2-0.5% of total mass in the mine) is associated with some, however moderate, excess risk of laryngeal cancer and pleural mesothelioma. The absence of excess mortality from lung cancer in this cohort is difficult to interpret.

Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers.

PubMed

Gasparrini, Antonio; Pizzo, Anna Maria; Gorini, Giuseppe; Seniori Costantini, Adele; Silvestri, Stefano; Ciapini, Cesare; Innocenti, Andrea; Berry, Geoffrey

2008-01-01

Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups. To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers. The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung. The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005-2050 was 15-30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23-35 for mesothelioma. This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts.

Testicular cancer: marked birth cohort effects on incidence and a decline in mortality in southern Netherlands since 1970.

PubMed

Verhoeven, Rob; Houterman, Saskia; Kiemeney, Bart; Koldewijn, Evert; Coebergh, Jan Willem

2008-02-01

The aim of our study was to interpret the changing incidence, and to describe the mortality of patients with testicular cancer in the south of the Netherlands between 1970 and 2004. On the basis of data from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands, 5-year moving average standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated. An age-period-cohort (APC) Poisson regression analysis was performed to disentangle time and birth cohort effects on incidence. The incidence rate remained stable for all ages at about 3 per 100,000 person-years until 1989 but increased annually thereafter by 4% to 6 in 2004. This increase can almost completely be attributed to an increase in localised tumours. The largest increase was found for seminoma testicular cancer (TC) patients aged 35-39 and non-seminoma TC patients aged 20-24 years. Relatively more localised and tumours with lymph node metastases were detected in the later periods. APC analysis showed the best fit with an age-cohort model. An increase in incidence of TC was found for birth cohorts since 1950. The mortality rate dropped from 1.0 per 100,000 person-years in 1970 to 0.3 in 2005, with a steep annual decline of 12% in the period 1979-1986. In conclusion, the increase in incidence of TC was strongly correlated with birth cohorts since 1945. The increase in incidence is possibly caused by in utero or early life exposure to a yet unknown risk factor. There was a steep decline in mortality in the period 1979-1986. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Lower vitamin-D production from solar ultraviolet-B irradiance may explain some differences in cancer survival rates.

PubMed Central

Grant, William B.

2006-01-01

Black Americans diagnosed with cancer generally have lower survival rates than white Americans, even after adjustment for stage of cancer at time of discovery and level of treatment received. The hypothesis developed in this work is that these lower cancer survival rates may be due to lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)DI for black Americans attributed to lower production rates of vitamin D from solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) irradiance due to darker skin. Black Americans generally have 50-75% as much serum 25(OH)D as white Americans, and vitamin D is now thought to reduce the risk of incidence and mortality for 18 types of cancer. To explore this hypothesis, data for mortality rates for various types of cancer for the period 1970-1994 for black Americans were used with indices for solar UVB levels for July, smoking, alcohol consumption, urban residence and poverty level, all averaged by state, in multiple linear regression analyses using the ecologic approach. Solar UVB was found significantly inversely correlated with mortality rates for breast, colon, esophageal, gastric and rectal cancers for black Americans, albeit with lower associations than for white Americans. Smoking and alcohol consumption were also significantly correlated with several cancers. Based on these results, it seems worthwhile to conduct observational, prevention and intervention studies to further test the hypothesis that vitamin D can reduce the risk of cancer incidence and death. PMID:16573299

The Disproportionate Cost of Smoking for African Americans in California

PubMed Central

Sung, Hai-Yen; Tucker, Lue-Yen; Stark, Brad

2010-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the economic impact of smoking on African Americans in California in 2002, including smoking-attributable health care expenditures and productivity losses from smoking-caused mortality. Methods. We estimated econometric models of smoking-attributable ambulatory care, prescription drugs, inpatient care, and home health care using national and state survey data. We assessed smoking-attributable mortality using epidemiological models. Results. Adult smoking prevalence for African Americans was 19.3% compared with 15.4% for all Californians. The health care cost of smoking was $626 million for the African American community. A total of 3013 African American Californians died of smoking-attributable illness in 2002, representing a loss of over 49 000 years of life and $784 million in productivity. The total cost of smoking for this community amounted to $1.4 billion, or $1.8 billion expressed in 2008 dollars. Conclusions. Although African Americans account for 6% of the California adult population, they account for over 8% of smoking-attributable expenditures and fully 13% of smoking-attributable mortality costs. Our findings confirm the need to tailor tobacco control programs to African Americans to mitigate the disproportionate burden of smoking for this community. PMID:19965569

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE PAGES

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; ...

2017-07-31

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Was the economic crisis 1997-1998 responsible for rising suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia? A time-trend analysis for Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand.

PubMed

Chang, Shu-Sen; Gunnell, David; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Cheng, Andrew T A

2009-04-01

In 1997-1998 a widespread economic crisis hit the economies of many East/Southeast Asian countries; its impact on suicide rates across the region has not been systematically documented. We investigated the impact of the Asian economic crisis (1997-1998) on suicide in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand. Suicide and population data for the period 1985-2006 were extracted from the World Health Organisation's mortality database and Taiwanese mortality statistics. Sex-specific age-standardised suicide rates for people aged 15years or above were analysed using joinpoint regression. Trends in divorce, marriage, unemployment, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and alcohol consumption were compared with trends in suicide rates graphically and using time-series analysis. Suicide mortality decreased in the late 1980s and early 1990s but subsequently increased markedly in all countries except Singapore, which had steadily declining suicide rates throughout the study period. Compared to 1997, male rates in 1998 rose by 39% in Japan, 44% in Hong Kong and 45% in Korea; rises in female rates were less marked. Male rates also rose in Thailand, but accurate data were incomplete. The economic crisis was associated with 10,400 more suicides in 1998 compared to 1997 in Japan, Hong Kong and Korea. Similar increases in suicide rates were not seen in Taiwan and Singapore, the two countries where the economic crisis had a smaller impact on GDP and unemployment. Time-series analyses indicated that some of the crisis's impact on male suicides was attributable to increases in unemployment. These findings suggest an association of the Asian economic crisis with a sharp increase in suicide mortality in some, but not all, East/Southeast Asian countries, and that these increases were most closely associated with rises in unemployment.

Mortality in HIV-Infected Alcohol and Drug Users in St. Petersburg, Russia

PubMed Central

Fairbairn, Nadia S.; Walley, Alexander Y.; Cheng, Debbie M.; Quinn, Emily; Bridden, Carly; Chaisson, Christine; Blokhina, Elena; Lioznov, Dmitry; Krupitsky, Evgeny; Raj, Anita; Samet, Jeffrey H.

2016-01-01

In Russia, up to half of premature deaths are attributed to hazardous drinking. The respective roles of alcohol and drug use in premature death among people with HIV in Russia have not been described. Criminalization and stigmatization of substance use in Russia may also contribute to mortality. We explored whether alcohol, drug use and risk environment factors are associated with short-term mortality in HIV-infected Russians who use substances. Secondary analyses were conducted using prospective data collected at baseline, 6 and 12-months from HIV-infected people who use substances recruited between 2007–2010 from addiction and HIV care settings in a single urban setting of St. Petersburg, Russia. We used Cox proportional hazards models to explore associations between 30-day alcohol hazardous drinking, injection drug use, polysubstance use and environmental risk exposures (i.e. past incarceration, police involvement, selling sex, and HIV stigma) with mortality. Among 700 participants, 59% were male and the mean age was 30 years. There were 40 deaths after a median follow-up of 12 months (crude mortality rate 5.9 per 100 person-years). In adjusted analyses, 30-day NIAAA hazardous drinking was significantly associated with mortality compared to no drinking [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 2.60, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.24–5.44] but moderate drinking was not (aHR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.35–2.59). No other factors were significantly associated with mortality. The high rates of short-term mortality and the strong association with hazardous drinking suggest a need to integrate evidence-based alcohol interventions into treatment strategies for HIV-infected Russians. PMID:27898683

Brief Report: Rheumatoid Arthritis as the Underlying Cause of Death in Thirty-One Countries, 1987-2011: Trend Analysis of World Health Organization Mortality Database.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Felson, David T; Neogi, Tuhina; Englund, Martin

2017-08-01

To examine trends in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as an underlying cause of death (UCD) in 31 countries across the world from 1987 to 2011. Data on mortality and population were collected from the World Health Organization mortality database and from the United Nations Population Prospects database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated by means of direct standardization. We applied joinpoint regression analysis to identify trends. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and the Gini coefficient. Due to low numbers of deaths, we smoothed the ASMRs using a 3-year moving average. Changes in the number of RA deaths between 1987 and 2011 were decomposed using 2 counterfactual scenarios. The absolute number of deaths with RA registered as the UCD decreased from 9,281 (0.12% of all-cause deaths) in 1987 to 8,428 (0.09% of all-cause deaths) in 2011. The mean ASMR decreased from 7.1 million person-years in 1987-1989 to 3.7 million person-years in 2009-2011 (48.2% reduction). A reduction of ≥25% in the ASMR occurred in 21 countries, while a corresponding increase was observed in 3 countries. There was a persistent reduction in RA mortality, and on average, the ASMR declined by 3.0% per year. The absolute and relative between-country disparities decreased during the study period. The rates of mortality attributable to RA have declined globally. However, we observed substantial between-country disparities in RA mortality, although these disparities decreased over time. Population aging combined with a decline in RA mortality may lead to an increase in the economic burden of disease that should be taken into consideration in policy-making. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

[On the increase in mortality in Italy in 2015: analysis of seasonal mortality in the 32 municipalities included in the Surveillance system of daily mortality].

PubMed

Michelozzi, Paola; De' Donato, Francesca; Scortichini, Matteo; De Sario, Manuela; Asta, Federica; Agabiti, Nera; Guerra, Ranieri; de Martino, Annamaria; Davoli, Marina

2016-01-01

the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) estimated an increase in mortality in Italy of 11.3% between January and August 2015 compared to the previous year. During summer 2015, an excess in mortality, attributed to heat waves, was observed. to estimate the excess mortality in 2015 using data from the rapid mortality surveillance system (SiSMG) operational in 32 Italian cities. time series models were used to estimate the excess in mortality among the elderly (65+ years) in 2015 by season (winter and summer). Excess mortality was defined as the difference between observed daily and expected (baseline) mortality for the five previous years (2009- 2013); seasonal mortality in 2015 was compared with mortality observed in 2012, 2013, and 2014. An analysis by cause of death (cardiovascular and respiratory), gender, and age group was carried out in Rome. data confirm an overall estimated excess in mortality of +11% in 2015. Seasonal analysis shows a greater excess in winter (+13%) compared to the summer period (+10%). The excess in winter deaths seems to be attributable to the peak in influenza rather than to low temperatures. Summer excess mortality was attributed to the heat waves of July and August 2015. The lower mortality registered in Italy during summer 2014 (-5.9%) may have contributed to the greater excess registered in 2015. In Rome, cause-specific analysis showed a higher excess among the very old (85+ years) mainly for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in winter. In summer, the excess was observed among both the elderly and in the adult population (35-64 years). results suggest the need for a more timely use of mortality data to evaluate the impact of different risk factors. Public health measures targeted to susceptible subgroups should be enhanced (e.g., Heat Prevention Plans, flu vaccination campaigns).

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China.

PubMed

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-12-10

Background : Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods : We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an "optimum temperature" that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results : The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%-13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%-12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%-2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%-24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%-16.01%); Conclusions : In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China

PubMed Central

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-01-01

Background: Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods: We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an “optimum temperature” that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results: The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%–13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%–12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%–2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%–24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%–16.01%); Conclusions: In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios. PMID:27973401

Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires

PubMed Central

Henderson, Sarah B.; Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Marlier, Miriam; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kinney, Patrick; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Brauer, Michael

2012-01-01

Background: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration–response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration–response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000–600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Niño suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS. PMID:22456494

Rheumatic Heart Disease-Attributable Mortality at Ages 5–69 Years in Fiji: A Five-Year, National, Population-Based Record-Linkage Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Parks, Tom; Kado, Joseph; Miller, Anne E.; Ward, Brenton; Heenan, Rachel; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Bärnighausen, Till W.; Mirabel, Mariana; Bloom, David E.; Bailey, Robin L.; Tukana, Isimeli N.; Steer, Andrew C.

2015-01-01

Background Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is considered a major public health problem in developing countries, although scarce data are available to substantiate this. Here we quantify mortality from RHD in Fiji during 2008–2012 in people aged 5–69 years. Methods and Findings Using 1,773,999 records derived from multiple sources of routine clinical and administrative data, we used probabilistic record-linkage to define a cohort of 2,619 persons diagnosed with RHD, observed for all-cause mortality over 11,538 person-years. Using relative survival methods, we estimated there were 378 RHD-attributable deaths, almost half of which occurred before age 40 years. Using census data as the denominator, we calculated there were 9.9 deaths (95% CI 9.8–10.0) and 331 years of life-lost (YLL, 95% CI 330.4–331.5) due to RHD per 100,000 person-years, standardised to the portion of the WHO World Standard Population aged 0–69 years. Valuing life using Fiji’s per-capita gross domestic product, we estimated these deaths cost United States Dollar $6,077,431 annually. Compared to vital registration data for 2011–2012, we calculated there were 1.6-times more RHD-attributable deaths than the number reported, and found our estimate of RHD mortality exceeded all but the five leading reported causes of premature death, based on collapsed underlying cause-of-death diagnoses. Conclusions Rheumatic heart disease is a leading cause of premature death as well as an important economic burden in this setting. Age-standardised death rates are more than twice those reported in current global estimates. Linkage of routine data provides an efficient tool to better define the epidemiology of neglected diseases. PMID:26371755

Is extreme climate or moderate climate more conducive to longevity in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yi; Rosenberg, Mark; Wang, Yingli

2018-02-01

Climate is closely related to human longevity. In China, there are many climate types. According to national population censuses from 1982 to 2000, most provinces with a high ratio of centenarians are located in western and northwestern China far from the sea; these areas are characterized by a dry, cold climate, very high altitude, very high daily temperature range, strong winds, and partial hypoxia. Meanwhile, provinces with a high ratio of nonagenarians from 1982 to 2000 are located in southern China near the sea. Previous studies have attributed the high ratio of centenarians in western and northwestern China to the extreme local climate. However, centenarians in these areas decreased greatly in 2010, whereas residents in southern China frequently reached 90 to 100 years old in 2010. This study aims to explain this strange phenomenon and find whether extreme climate in Tibetan plateau and northwestern China or moderate climate in southern China is more conducive to longevity. The study found that mortality rate in Tibetan plateau is much higher than southern China, then a population evolution experiment was proposed to compare longevity indicators between low mortality rate and high mortality rate and shows that longevity indicators will decrease in the near future and increase above their original levels after several decades when the mortality rate is decreased. Results of this study show individuals in northwestern China do not live as long as those in eastern and southern China. A moderate climate is more conducive to longevity than extreme climate in China. The longevity of a region should be judged by long-term longevity indicators.

Is extreme climate or moderate climate more conducive to longevity in China?

PubMed

Huang, Yi; Rosenberg, Mark; Wang, Yingli

2018-06-01

Climate is closely related to human longevity. In China, there are many climate types. According to national population censuses from 1982 to 2000, most provinces with a high ratio of centenarians are located in western and northwestern China far from the sea; these areas are characterized by a dry, cold climate, very high altitude, very high daily temperature range, strong winds, and partial hypoxia. Meanwhile, provinces with a high ratio of nonagenarians from 1982 to 2000 are located in southern China near the sea. Previous studies have attributed the high ratio of centenarians in western and northwestern China to the extreme local climate. However, centenarians in these areas decreased greatly in 2010, whereas residents in southern China frequently reached 90 to 100 years old in 2010. This study aims to explain this strange phenomenon and find whether extreme climate in Tibetan plateau and northwestern China or moderate climate in southern China is more conducive to longevity. The study found that mortality rate in Tibetan plateau is much higher than southern China, then a population evolution experiment was proposed to compare longevity indicators between low mortality rate and high mortality rate and shows that longevity indicators will decrease in the near future and increase above their original levels after several decades when the mortality rate is decreased. Results of this study show individuals in northwestern China do not live as long as those in eastern and southern China. A moderate climate is more conducive to longevity than extreme climate in China. The longevity of a region should be judged by long-term longevity indicators.

Is extreme climate or moderate climate more conducive to longevity in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yi; Rosenberg, Mark; Wang, Yingli

2018-06-01

Climate is closely related to human longevity. In China, there are many climate types. According to national population censuses from 1982 to 2000, most provinces with a high ratio of centenarians are located in western and northwestern China far from the sea; these areas are characterized by a dry, cold climate, very high altitude, very high daily temperature range, strong winds, and partial hypoxia. Meanwhile, provinces with a high ratio of nonagenarians from 1982 to 2000 are located in southern China near the sea. Previous studies have attributed the high ratio of centenarians in western and northwestern China to the extreme local climate. However, centenarians in these areas decreased greatly in 2010, whereas residents in southern China frequently reached 90 to 100 years old in 2010. This study aims to explain this strange phenomenon and find whether extreme climate in Tibetan plateau and northwestern China or moderate climate in southern China is more conducive to longevity. The study found that mortality rate in Tibetan plateau is much higher than southern China, then a population evolution experiment was proposed to compare longevity indicators between low mortality rate and high mortality rate and shows that longevity indicators will decrease in the near future and increase above their original levels after several decades when the mortality rate is decreased. Results of this study show individuals in northwestern China do not live as long as those in eastern and southern China. A moderate climate is more conducive to longevity than extreme climate in China. The longevity of a region should be judged by long-term longevity indicators.

Disease profile of children in Kabul: the unmet need for health care

PubMed Central

Prasad, Amarendra Narayan

2006-01-01

This study was conducted at the paediatric emergency department of a tertiary care teaching and referral hospital in Kabul, Afghanistan to assess the morbidity and mortality pattern of illness in paediatric population. Afghanistan has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the world, and there is complete breakdown of the health care system in the country because of the continued war. A total of 17 850 children and neonates were seen at the paediatric emergency centre at IGICH, Kabul in one year period from 18 September 2002 to 17 September 2003. The most common illnesses were diarrhoea and respiratory infections. Infectious diseases, neonatal illnesses, and cardiac diseases were other important causes of morbidity. Neonatal deaths formed the major proportion of all deaths. Morbidity and mortality attributable to easily preventable/curable diseases was quite high. There is an urgent need to develop an integrated and effective health care system in the country. PMID:16361450

Cause-specific temporal and spatial trends in green sea turtle strandings in the Hawaiian Archipelago (1982-2003)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chaloupka, Milani; Work, Thierry M.; Balazs, George H.; Murakawa, Shawn K. K.; Morris, Robert

2008-01-01

We investigated cause-specific temporal and spatial trends in sea turtle strandings in the Hawaiian Archipelago. Five species of sea turtle were recorded in 3,861 strandings over a 22-year period (1982–2003). Green turtles comprised 97% of these strandings with size and gender composition reflecting the demographic structure of the resident green turtle population and relative green turtle abundance in Hawaiian waters. The cause of strandings was determined by necropsy based on a complete gross external and internal examination. Totally 75% of the 3,732 green turtle strandings were from Oahu where strandings occur year-round. The most common known cause of the green turtle strandings was the tumour-forming disease, fibropapillomatosis (28%) followed by hook-and-line fishing gear-induced trauma (7%), gillnet fishing gear-induced trauma (5%), boat strike (2.5%), and shark attack (2.7%). Miscellaneous causes comprised 5.4% of strandings whereas 49% of green turtle strandings could not be attributed to any known cause. Green turtle strandings attributable to boat strike were more likely from Kauai and Oahu while fibropapilloma strandings were more likely from Oahu and Maui. Hook-and-line gear strandings were more likely from Oahu due to higher per capita inshore fishing effort. The specific mortality rate (conditional probability) for fibropapillomatosis was 88%, 69% for gillnet gear and 52% for hook-and-line gear. The probability of a dead green turtle stranding increased from 1982 but levelled off by the mid-1990s. The declining mortality risk was because the prevalence and severity of fibropapillomatosis has decreased recently and so has the mortality risk attributable to gillnet gear. Despite exposure to disease and inshore fishing gears, the Hawaiian green turtle stock continues to recover following protection since the late 1970s. Nevertheless, measures to reduce incidental capture of sea turtles in coastal Hawaiian fisheries would be prudent, especially since strandings attributable to hook-and-line fishing gear have increased steadily since 1982.

Assessing the Representativeness of Population-Sampled Health Surveys Through Linkage to Administrative Data on Alcohol-Related Outcomes

PubMed Central

Gorman, Emma; Leyland, Alastair H.; McCartney, Gerry; White, Ian R.; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Rutherford, Lisa; Graham, Lesley; Gray, Linsay

2014-01-01

Health surveys are an important resource for monitoring population health, but selective nonresponse may impede valid inference. This study aimed to assess nonresponse bias in a population-sampled health survey in Scotland, with a focus on alcohol-related outcomes. Nonresponse bias was assessed by examining whether rates of alcohol-related harm (i.e., hospitalization or death) and all-cause mortality among respondents to the Scottish Health Surveys (from 1995 to 2010) were equivalent to those in the general population, and whether the extent of any bias varied according to sociodemographic attributes or over time. Data from consenting respondents (aged 20–64 years) to 6 Scottish Health Surveys were confidentially linked to death and hospitalization records and compared with general population counterparts. Directly age-standardized incidence rates of alcohol-related harm and all-cause mortality were lower among Scottish Health Survey respondents compared with the general population. For all years combined, the survey-to-population rate ratios were 0.69 (95% confidence interval: 0.61, 0.76) for the incidence of alcohol-related harm and 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 0.96) for all-cause mortality. Bias was more pronounced among persons residing in more deprived areas; limited evidence was found for regional or temporal variation. This suggests that corresponding underestimation of population rates of alcohol consumption is likely to be socially patterned. PMID:25227767

Life expectancy in a birth cohort of Boxers followed up from weaning to 10 years of age.

PubMed

van Hagen, Marjan A E; Ducro, Bart J; van den Broek, Jan; Knol, Bart W

2005-09-01

To determine mortality rate over time, risk factors for death, and heritability of life expectancy in Boxers. 1,733 purebred Boxers born in The Netherlands between January 1994 and March 1995. Dogs were followed up from weaning (ie, 49 days of age) to 10 years of age through use of a written questionnaire sent to owners every 6 months. Mortality rate over time, risk factors potentially associated with death, and heritability of life expectancy were examined by use of a proportional hazards model based on the Weibull distribution. stimated mortality rate during the 10-year study period for this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The probability of surviving to 5 years of age was 88%; the probability of surviving to 10 years of age was 55%. Estimated effective heritability of life expectancy was 0.076, meaning that in this population, an estimated 76% of the observed variation in life expectancy could be attributed to genetic differences among dogs that were passed from parents to their offspring. Results suggest that cumulative incidence of death from weaning to 10 years of age among this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The estimated heritability of life expectancy suggested that life expectancy can be improved by use of selective breeding.

Perinatal mortality attributable to complications of childbirth in Matlab, Bangladesh.

PubMed Central

Kusiako, T.; Ronsmans, C.; Van der Paal, L.

2000-01-01

Very few population-based studies of perinatal mortality in developing countries have examined the role of intrapartum risk factors. In the present study, the proportion of perinatal deaths that are attributable to complications during childbirth in Matlab, Bangladesh, was assessed using community-based data from a home-based programme led by professional midwives between 1987 and 1993. Complications during labour and delivery--such as prolonged or obstructed labour, abnormal fetal position, and hypertensive diseases of pregnancy--increased the risk of perinatal mortality fivefold and accounted for 30% of perinatal deaths. Premature labour, which occurred in 20% of pregnancies, accounted for 27% of perinatal mortality. Better care by qualified staff during delivery and improved care of newborns should substantially reduce perinatal mortality in this study population. PMID:10859856

Association of Temporal Changes in Gestational Age With Perinatal Mortality in the United States, 2007-2015.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Goldenberg, Robert L; Friedman, Alexander M; Vintzileos, Anthony M

2018-05-14

Whether the changing gestational age distribution in the United States since 2005 has affected perinatal mortality remains unknown. To examine changes in gestational age distribution and gestational age-specific perinatal mortality. This retrospective cohort study examined trends in US perinatal mortality by linking live birth and infant death data among more than 35 million singleton births from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2015. Year of birth and changes in gestational age distribution. Changes in the proportion of births at gestational ages 20 to 27, 28 to 31, 32 to 33, 34 to 36, 37 to 38, 39 to 40, 41, and 42 to 44 weeks; changes in perinatal mortality (stillbirth at ≥20 weeks, and neonatal deaths at <28 days) rates; and contribution of gestational age changes to perinatal mortality. Trends were estimated from log-linear regression models adjusted for confounders. Among the 34 236 577 singleton live births during the study period, the proportion of births at all gestational ages declined, except at 39 to 40 weeks, which increased (54.5% in 2007 to 60.2% in 2015). Overall perinatal mortality declined from 9.0 to 8.6 per 1000 births (P < .001). Stillbirths declined from 5.7 to 5.6 per 1000 births (P < .001), and neonatal mortality declined from 3.3 to 3.0 per 1000 births (P < .001). Although the proportion of births at gestational ages 34 to 36, 37 to 38, and 42 to 44 weeks declined, perinatal mortality rates at these gestational ages showed annual adjusted relative increases of 1.0% (95% CI, 0.6%-1.4%), 2.3% (95% CI, 1.9%-2.8%), and 4.2% (95% CI, 1.5%-7.0%), respectively. Neonatal mortality rates at gestational ages 34 to 36 and 37 to 38 weeks showed a relative adjusted annual increase of 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.6%) and 3.1% (95% CI, 2.1%-4.1%), respectively. Although the proportion of births at gestational age 39 to 40 weeks increased, perinatal mortality showed an annual relative adjusted decline of -1.3% (95% CI, -1.8% to -0.9%). The decline in neonatal mortality rate was largely attributable to changes in the gestational age distribution than to gestational age-specific mortality. Although the proportion of births at gestational age 39 to 40 weeks increased, perinatal mortality at this gestational age declined. This finding may be owing to pregnancies delivered at 39 to 40 weeks that previously would have been unnecessarily delivered earlier, leaving fetuses at higher risk for mortality at other gestational ages.

Mortality, hospital days and expenditures attributable to ambient air pollution from particulate matter in Israel.

PubMed

Ginsberg, Gary M; Kaliner, Ehud; Grotto, Itamar

2016-01-01

Worldwide, ambient air pollution accounts for around 3.7 million deaths annually. Measuring the burden of disease is important not just for advocacy but also is a first step towards carrying out a full cost-utility analysis in order to prioritise technological interventions that are available to reduce air pollution (and subsequent morbidity and mortality) from industrial, power generating and vehicular sources. We calculated the average national exposure to particulate matter particles less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in diameter by weighting readings from 52 (non-roadside) monitoring stations by the population of the catchment area around the station. The PM2.5 exposure level was then multiplied by the gender and cause specific (Acute Lower Respiratory Infections, Asthma, Circulatory Diseases, Coronary Heart Failure, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Diabetes, Ischemic Heart Disease, Lung Cancer, Low Birth Weight, Respiratory Diseases and Stroke) relative risks and the national age, cause and gender specific mortality (and hospital utilisation which included neuro-degenerative disorders) rates to arrive at the estimated mortality and hospital days attributable to ambient PM2.5 pollution in Israel in 2015. We utilised a WHO spread-sheet model, which was expanded to include relative risks (based on more recent meta-analyses) of sub-sets of other diagnoses in two additional models. Mortality estimates from the three models were 1609, 1908 and 2253 respectively in addition to 184,000, 348,000 and 542,000 days hospitalisation in general hospitals. Total costs from PM2.5 pollution (including premature burial costs) amounted to $544 million, $1030 million and $1749 million respectively (or 0.18 %, 0.35 % and 0.59 % of GNP). Subject to the caveat that our estimates were based on a limited number of non-randomly sited stations exposure data. The mortality, morbidity and monetary burden of disease attributable to air pollution from particulate matter in Israel is of sufficient magnitude to warrant the consideration of and prioritisation of technological interventions that are available to reduce air pollution from industrial, power generating and vehicular sources. The accuracy of our burden estimates would be improved if more precise estimates of population exposure were to become available in the future.

Improved Heart Rate Recovery After Marked Weight Loss Induced by Gastric Bypass Surgery: 2 Year Follow Up in the Utah Obesity Study

PubMed Central

Wasmund, Stephen L.; Yanowitz, Frank G.; Adams, Ted D.; Hunt, Steven C.; Hamdan, Mohamed H.; Litwin, Sheldon E.

2010-01-01

Background Obesity is associated with significantly increased cardiovascular mortality that has been attributed, in part, to sympathetic activation. Gastric bypass surgery (GBS) appears to increase long-term survival in the severely obese, but mechanisms responsible for this increase are still being sought. Heart rate (HR) recovery after exercise reflects the balance of cardiac autonomic input from the sympathetic and parasympathetic systems. Blunted HR recovery is a very powerful predictor of increased mortality while enhanced HR recovery portends a good prognosis. Objectives To evaluate the effect of marked weight loss achieved via GBS on HR recovery. Methods Severely obese patients underwent submaximal exercise testing (80% predicted maximum HR) at baseline and 2 years after GBS (n=153) or nonsurgical treatment (n=188). Results Patients in the GBS group lost an average of 100±37 lbs compared to 3±22 lbs in the nonsurgical group (p<0.001, GBS vs. nonsurgical). Resting HR decreased from 73 beats/minute (bpm) to 60 bpm in the GBS group and from 74 bpm to 68 bpm in nonsurgical patients (p<0.001). Heart rate recovery improved by 13 bpm in the GBS group and did not change in the nonsurgical group (p<0.001 GBS vs. nonsurgical). In multivariable analysis, the independent correlates of HR recovery at the 2-year time point were resting HR, treadmill time, age, body mass index and HOMA-IR. Conclusion Marked weight loss 2 years after GBS resulted in a significant decrease in resting HR and an enhancement in HR recovery after exercise. These changes are likely attributable to improvement in insulin sensitivity and cardiac autonomic balance. Whether and to what extent this contributes to a reduction in cardiovascular mortality with GBS remains to be determined. PMID:20970524

Effects of hunting on survival of American woodcock in the Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAuley, D.G.; Longcore, J.R.; Clugston, D.A.; Allen, R.B.; Weik, A.; Williamson, S.; Dunn, J.; Palmer, B.; Evans, K.; Staats, W.; Sepik, G.F.; Halteman, W.

2005-01-01

Numbers of American woodcock (Scolopax minor) males counted on the annual singing ground survey (SGS) have declined over the last 35 years at an average rate of 2.3% per year in the Eastern Region and 1.8% per year in the Central Region. Although hunting was not thought to be a cause of these declines, mortality caused by hunters can be controlled. Furthermore, there has been no research on effects of hunting mortality on woodcock populations at local and regional levels on the breeding grounds. We used radiotelemetry to determine survival rates and causes of mortality for 913 woodcock captured during fall 1997?2000 on 7 areas in Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Vermont, USA. Three of 7 sites were closed to hunting. For all sites and all years combined, 176 woodcock died, and 130 were censored, of which 39 were censored mortalities. Predation was the major (n = 134, 76%) cause of mortality. Mammals accounted for 56% of the predation, raptors accounted for 25%, and 19% was attributed to unknown predators. On hunted sites, 36% of the total mortality (n = 102) was caused by hunting, 63% by predation, and 1 bird starved. Kaplan-Meier survival curves did not differ between hunted and non-hunted sites among years (P = 0.46). Overall, point estimates of survival did not differ (P = 0.217) between hunted (SR = 0.636, SE = 0.04) and nonhunted sites (SR = 0.661, SE = 0.08). We modeled hazard rates from hunting and natural mortality events using program MARK. Akaike's Information Criterion supported using a model with common constant hazards from both hunting and natural causes for groups of sites. Groupings of sites for hazard rates from natural causes were not influenced by whether a site was hunted or not. Models detected no effects of woodcock age and sex (P = 0.52) on survival. Proportional hazards models comparing hunted and nonhunted sites found no effects of age and sex (P = 0.45), interactions of age, sex, capture weight, and bill length (P > 0.269). Our data suggest that current hunting regulations are not causing lower survival of woodcock.

Russia SimSmoke: the long-term effects of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Russia

PubMed Central

Maslennikova, Galina Ya; Oganov, Rafael G; Boytsov, Sergey A; Ross, Hana; Huang, An-Tsun; Near, Aimee; Kotov, Alexey; Berezhnova, Irina; Levy, David T

2015-01-01

Background Russia has high smoking rates and weak tobacco control policies. A simulation model is used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies on past and future smoking prevalence and premature mortality in Russia. Methods The Russia model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control model previously developed for the USA and other nations. The model inputs population size, birth, death and smoking rates specific to Russia. It assesses, individually and in combination, the effect of seven types of policies consistent with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC): taxes, smoke-free air, mass media campaign, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment and youth access policies. Outcomes are smoking prevalence and the number of smoking-attributable deaths by age and gender from 2009 to 2055. Results Increasing cigarette taxes to 70% of retail price, stronger smoke-free air laws, a high-intensity media campaign and comprehensive treatment policies are each potent policies to reduce smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable premature deaths in Russia. With the stronger set of policies, the model estimates that, relative to the status quo trend, smoking prevalence can be reduced by as much as 30% by 2020, with a 50% reduction projected by 2055. This translates into 2 684 994 male and 1 011 985 female premature deaths averted from 2015–2055. Conclusions SimSmoke results highlight the relative contribution of policies to reducing the tobacco health burden in Russia. Significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through strengthening tobacco control policies in line with FCTC recommendations. PMID:23853252

Russia SimSmoke: the long-term effects of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Russia.

PubMed

Maslennikova, Galina Ya; Oganov, Rafael G; Boytsov, Sergey A; Ross, Hana; Huang, An-Tsun; Near, Aimee; Kotov, Alexey; Berezhnova, Irina; Levy, David T

2014-11-01

Russia has high smoking rates and weak tobacco control policies. A simulation model is used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies on past and future smoking prevalence and premature mortality in Russia. The Russia model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control model previously developed for the USA and other nations. The model inputs population size, birth, death and smoking rates specific to Russia. It assesses, individually and in combination, the effect of seven types of policies consistent with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC): taxes, smoke-free air, mass media campaign, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment and youth access policies. Outcomes are smoking prevalence and the number of smoking-attributable deaths by age and gender from 2009 to 2055. Increasing cigarette taxes to 70% of retail price, stronger smoke-free air laws, a high-intensity media campaign and comprehensive treatment policies are each potent policies to reduce smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable premature deaths in Russia. With the stronger set of policies, the model estimates that, relative to the status quo trend, smoking prevalence can be reduced by as much as 30% by 2020, with a 50% reduction projected by 2055. This translates into 2 684 994 male and 1 011 985 female premature deaths averted from 2015-2055. SimSmoke results highlight the relative contribution of policies to reducing the tobacco health burden in Russia. Significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through strengthening tobacco control policies in line with FCTC recommendations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Bat rabies surveillance in France: first report of unusual mortality among serotine bats.

PubMed

Picard-Meyer, Evelyne; Servat, Alexandre; Wasniewski, Marine; Gaillard, Matthieu; Borel, Christophe; Cliquet, Florence

2017-12-13

Rabies is a fatal viral encephalitic disease that is caused by lyssaviruses which can affect all mammals, including human and bats. In Europe, bat rabies cases are attributed to five different lyssavirus species, the majority of rabid bats being attributed to European bat 1 lyssavirus (EBLV-1), circulating mainly in serotine bats (Eptesicus serotinus). In France, rabies in bats is under surveillance since 1989, with 77 positive cases reported between 1989 and 2016. In the frame of the bat rabies surveillance, an unusual mortality of serotine bats was reported in 2009 in a village in North-East France. Six juvenile bats from an E. serotinus maternity colony counting ~200 individuals were found to be infected with EBLV-1. The active surveillance of the colony by capture sessions of bats from July to September 2009 showed a high detection rate of neutralising EBLV-1 antibodies (≈ 50%) in the colony. Moreover, one out of 111 animals tested was found to shed viable virus in saliva, while lyssavirus RNA was detected by RT-PCR for five individuals. This study demonstrated that the lyssavirus infection in the serotine maternity colony was followed by a high rate of bat rabies immunity after circulation of the virus in the colony. The ratio of seropositive bats is probably indicative of an efficient virus transmission coupled to a rapid circulation of EBLV-1 in the colony.

Trends and socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality in Switzerland with international comparisons.

PubMed

Feller, Anita; Schmidlin, Kurt; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M

2017-08-14

Amenable mortality is a composite measure of deaths from conditions that might be avoided by timely and effective healthcare. It was developed as an indicator to study health care quality. We calculated mortality rates for the population aged 0-74 years for the time-period 1996-2010 and the following groups of causes of death: amenable conditions, ischaemic heart diseases (IHD, defined as partly amenable) and remaining conditions. We compared the Swiss results with those published for 16 other high-income countries. To examine the association between amenable mortality and socioeconomic position, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) by using Cox regression. Amenable mortality fell from 49.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.2-51.0) to 35.7 (34.6-36.9) in males and from 55.0 (53.6-56.4) to 43.4 (42.2-44.6) per 100 000 person-years in females, when 1996-1998 was compared with 2008-2010. IHD mortality declined from 64.7 (95% CI 63.1-66.3) to 33.8 (32.8-34.8) in males and from 18.0 (17.2-18.7) to 8.5 (8.0-9.0) in females. However, between 1996-1998 and 2008-2010 the proportion of all-cause mortality attributed to amenable causes remained stable in both sexes (around 12% in males and 26% in females). Compared with 16 other high-income countries, Switzerland had the lowest rates of amenable mortality and ranked among the top five with the lowest ischaemic heart disease mortality. HRs of amenable causes in the lowest socioeconomic position quintile were 1.77 (95% CI 1.66-1.90) for males and 1.78 (1.47-2.16) for females compared with 1.62 (1.58-1.66) and 1.38 (1.33-1.43) for unamenable mortality. For ischaemic heart disease, HRs in the lowest socioeconomic position quintile were 1.76 (95% CI 1.66-1.87) for males and 2.33 (2.07-2.62) for females. Amenable mortality declined substantially in Switzerland with comparably low death rates for amenable causes. Similar to previous international studies, these Swiss results showed substantial socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality. Proportions of amenable mortality remained constant over time and patterns of inequalities observed for amenable causes in men did not substantially differ from those observed for non-amenable causes of death. Additional amenable mortality research is needed to better understand the factors contributing to mortality changes and social inequalities including information on disease characteristics and health care supply measures.

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. Methods The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Results Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Conclusion Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD. PMID:22958443

Decreasing cervical cancer mortality in Mexico: effect of Papanicolaou coverage, birthrate, and the importance of diagnostic validity of cytology.

PubMed

Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofía; Allen-Leigh, Betania; Yunes-Diaz, Elsa; Alonso, Patricia; Schiavon, Raffaela; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio

2008-10-01

The reduction in cervical cancer mortality in developed countries has been attributed to well-organized, population-based prevention and control programs that incorporate screening with the Papanicolaou (Pap) smear. In Mexico, there has been a decrease in cervical cancer mortality, but it is unclear what factors have prompted this reduction. Using data from national indicators, we determined the correlation between cervical cancer mortality rates and Pap coverage, birthrate, and gross national product, using a linear regression model. We determined relative risk of dying of cervical cancer according to place of residence (rural/urban, region) using a Poisson model. We also estimated Pap smear coverage using national survey data and evaluated the validity and reproducibility of Pap smear diagnosis. An increase in Pap coverage (beta= -0.069) and a decrease in birthrate (beta=0.054) correlate with decreasing cervical cancer mortality in Mexico. Self-reported Pap smear rates in the last 12 months vary from 27.4% to 48.1%. Women who live in the central (relative risk, 1.04) and especially the southern (relative risk, 1.47) parts of Mexico have a greater relative risk of dying of cervical cancer than those who live in the north. There is a high incidence of false negatives in cervical cytology laboratories in Mexico; the percentage of false negatives varies from 3.33% to 53.13%. The decrease in cervical cancer mortality observed in Mexico is proportional to increasing Pap coverage and decreasing birthrate. Accreditation of cervical cytology laboratories is needed to improve diagnostic precision.

Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly: an analysis of European data.

PubMed

Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Csáky-Szunyogh, Melinda; de Walle, Hermien E K; Dias, Carlos Matias; Draper, Elizabeth; Gatt, Miriam; Garne, Ester; Haeusler, Martin; Källén, Karin; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; McDonnell, Bob; Mullaney, Carmel; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O'Mahony, Mary; Queisser-Wahrendorf, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Wreyford, Ben; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Dolk, Helen

2018-01-01

To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) in the interpretation of infant mortality statistics. EUROCAT is a network of congenital anomaly registries collecting data on live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation and TOPFA. Data from 29 registries in 19 countries were analysed for 2005-2009, and infant mortality (deaths of live births at age <1 year) compared with the WHO Mortality Database. Eight EUROCAT countries were excluded from further analysis on the basis that this comparison showed poor ascertainment of survival status. According to WHO, 17%-42% of infant mortality was attributed to congenital anomaly. In 11 EUROCAT countries, average infant mortality with congenital anomaly was 1.1 per 1000 births, with higher rates where TOPFA is illegal (Malta 3.0, Ireland 2.1). The rate of stillbirths with congenital anomaly was 0.6 per 1000. The average TOPFA prevalence was 4.6 per 1000, nearly three times more prevalent than stillbirths and infant deaths combined. TOPFA also impacted on the prevalence of postneonatal survivors with non-lethal congenital anomaly. By excluding TOPFA and stillbirths from GBD years of life lost (YLL) estimates, GBD underestimates the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Predictors of liver-related death among people who inject drugs in Vancouver, Canada: a 15-year prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Hayashi, Kanna; Milloy, Michael-John; Wood, Evan; Dong, Huiru; Montaner, Julio SG; Kerr, Thomas

2014-01-01

Introduction While HIV/AIDS remains an important cause of death among people who inject drugs (PWID), the potential mortality burden attributable to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among this population is of increasing concern. Therefore, we sought to identify trends in and predictors of liver-related mortality among PWID. Methods Data were derived from prospective cohorts of PWID in Vancouver, Canada, between 1996 and 2011. Cohort data were linked to the provincial vital statistics database to ascertain mortality rates and causes of death. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the relationship between HCV infection and time to liver-related death. A sub-analysis examined the effect of HIV/HCV co-infection. Results and discussion In total, 2,279 PWID participated in this study, with 1,921 (84.3%) having seroconverted to anti-HCV prior to baseline assessments and 124 (5.4%) during follow-up. The liver-related mortality rate was 2.1 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5–3.0) deaths per 1,000 person-years and was stable over time. In multivariate analyses, HCV seropositivity was not significantly associated with liver-related mortality (adjusted relative hazard [ARH]: 0.45; 95% CI: 0.15–1.37), but HIV seropositivity was (ARH: 2.67; 95% CI: 1.27–5.63). In sub-analysis, HIV/HCV co-infection had a 2.53 (95% CI: 1.18–5.46) times hazard of liver-related death compared with HCV mono-infection. Conclusions In this study, HCV seropositivity did not predict liver-related mortality while HIV seropositivity did. The findings highlight the critical role of HIV mono- and co-infection rather than HCV infection in contributing to liver-related mortality among PWID in this setting. PMID:25391765

Influenza vaccine coverage, influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia (Spain).

PubMed

Muñoz, M Pilar; Soldevila, Núria; Martínez, Anna; Carmona, Glòria; Batalla, Joan; Acosta, Lesly M; Domínguez, Angela

2011-07-12

The objective of this work was to study the behaviour of influenza with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia, and their association with influenza vaccination coverage. The study was carried out over 13 influenza seasons, from epidemiological week 40 of 1994 to week 20 of 2007, and included confirmed cases of influenza and all-cause mortality. Two generalized linear models were fitted: influenza-associated morbidity was modelled by Poisson regression and all-cause mortality by negative binomial regression. The seasonal component was modelled with the periodic function formed by the sum of the sinus and cosines. Expected influenza mortality during periods of influenza virus circulation was estimated by Poisson regression and its confidence intervals using the Bootstrap approach. Vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity (p<0.001), but not with a reduction in all-cause mortality (p=0.149). In the case of influenza-associated morbidity, an increase of 5% in vaccination coverage represented a reduction of 3% in the incidence rate of influenza. There was a positive association between influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality. Excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics was estimated as 34.4 (95% CI: 28.4-40.8) weekly deaths. In conclusion, all-cause mortality is a good indicator of influenza surveillance and vaccination coverage is associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity but not with all-cause mortality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Growing gaps: The importance of income and family for educational inequalities in mortality among Swedish men and women 1990-2009.

PubMed

Östergren, Olof

2015-08-01

Although absolute levels of mortality have decreased among Swedish men and women in recent decades, educational inequalities in mortality have increased, especially among women. The aim of this study is to disentangle the role of income and family type in educational inequalities in mortality in Sweden during 1990-2009, focusing on gender differences. Data on individuals born in Sweden between the ages of 30 and 74 years were collected from total population registries, covering a total of 529,275 deaths and 729 million person-months. Temporary life expectancies (age 30-74 years) by education were calculated using life tables, and rate ratios were estimated with Poisson regression with robust standard errors. Temporary life expectancy improved among all groups except low educated women. Relative educational inequalities in mortality (RRs) increased from 1.79 to 1.98 among men and from 1.78 to 2.10 among women. Variation in family type explained some of the inequalities among men, but not among women, and did not contribute to the trend. Variation in income explained a larger part of the educational inequalities among men compared to women and also explained the increase in educational inequalities in mortality among men and women. Increasing educational inequalities in mortality in Sweden may be attributed to the increase in income inequalities in mortality. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

All-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a consecutive series of patients with diabetic foot osteomyelitis.

PubMed

Ricci, Lucia; Scatena, Alessia; Tacconi, Danilo; Ventoruzzo, Giorgio; Liistro, Francesco; Bolognese, Leonardo; Monami, Matteo; Mannucci, Edoardo

2017-09-01

Mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and diabetic foot osteomyelitis (DFO) have been explored in few small studies with a short follow-up. Aim of the present study is to assess all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and predictors of mortality in a consecutive series of patients with DFO. Patients with a diagnosis of DFO, attending the Diabetic Foot Unit of San Donato Hospital in Arezzo between January 1st, 2012 and December 31st, 2013, were included in this retrospective study. Information on all-cause mortality up to December 1st, 2016, was obtained from the registry of the Local Health Unit of Arezzo, which contains updated records of all persons living in Tuscany. One hundred ninety-four patients were included in the study. During a mean period of observation of 2.8±1.4years, 73 (37.6%) died, with a yearly rate of 13.2%. Of the 73 deaths, 59 were attributable to cardiovascular causes. After adjusting for possible confounders in a Cox analysis, site of osteomyelitis (hindfoot vs mid/forefoot) was associated with a higher mortality, and surgical treatment with a lower mortality. Mortality in patients with DFO appears to be much higher than that reported in clinical series of patients with diabetic foot ulcers, particularly when hindfoot is affected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Epidemiology of international terrorism involving fatal outcomes in developed countries (1994-2003).

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Thomson, George

2005-01-01

We aimed to describe the public health burden and epidemiology of international terrorism (i.e. involving foreign nationals) with fatal outcomes in developed countries. Data was abstracted from a United States Department of State database for 21 'established market economy' countries and 18 'former socialist economies of Europe' for 1994-2003. To put the findings in a wider context, comparisons were made with WHO data on all homicides for each country. A total of 32 international terrorist attacks causing fatalities were identified over the 10-year period. These resulted in 3299 deaths, giving a crude annual mortality rate of 0.3 per million population. The mortality burden attributable to international terrorism in these countries was 208 times less than that attributable to other homicide. Even for the country with the highest mortality burden from international terrorism (the United States), this ratio was 60. There was no statistically significant trend in the number of attacks over time, but the attack severity (in terms of deaths per attack) was higher in the latter part of the 10-year period. A number of limitations with this data set were identified. If a more rigorous definition of 'international terrorism' was used, then this would substantially reduce the total number of such attacks defined in this way. In conclusion, there is a need for better quality data and improved classification systems for describing international terrorism. Nevertheless, the available data indicates that the mortality burden from international terrorism in developed countries is small compared to that from other homicide.

Prevention of deaths from harmful drinking in the United States: the potential effects of tax increases and advertising bans on young drinkers.

PubMed

Hollingworth, William; Ebel, Beth E; McCarty, Carolyn A; Garrison, Michelle M; Christakis, Dimitri A; Rivara, Frederick P

2006-03-01

Harmful alcohol consumption is a leading cause of death in the United States. The majority of people who die from alcohol use begin drinking in their youth. In this study, we estimate the impact of interventions to reduce the prevalence of drinking among youth on subsequent drinking patterns and alcohol-attributable mortality. We first estimated the effect of public health interventions to decrease harmful drinking among youth from literature reviews and used life table methods to estimate alcohol-attributable years of life lost by age 80 years among the cohort of approximately 4 million U.S. residents aged 20 in the year 2000. Then, from national survey data on transitions in drinking habits by age, we modeled the impact of interventions on alcohol-attributable mortality. A tax increase and an advertising ban were the most effective interventions identified. In the absence of intervention, there would be 55,259 alcohol-attributable deaths over the lifetime of the cohort. A tax-based 17% increase in the price of alcohol of dollar 1 per six pack of beer could reduce deaths from harmful drinking by 1,490, equivalent to 31,130 discounted years of potential life saved or 3.3% of current alcohol-attributable mortality. A complete ban on alcohol advertising would reduce deaths from harmful drinking by 7,609 and result in a 16.4% decrease in alcohol-related life-years lost. A partial advertising ban would result in a 4% reduction in alcohol-related life-years lost. Interventions to prevent harmful drinking by youth can result in reductions in adult mortality. Among interventions shown to be successful in reducing youthful drinking prevalence, advertising bans appear to have the greatest potential for premature mortality reduction.

Health Impacts and Economic Costs of Air Pollution in the Metropolitan Area of Skopje.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Spadaro, Joseph V; Chapizanis, Dimitris; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Kochubovski, Mihail; Mudu, Pierpaolo

2018-03-29

Urban outdoor air pollution, especially particulate matter, remains a major environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Despite the documented high levels of pollution in the city, the published evidence on its health impacts is as yet scarce. we obtained, cleaned, and validated Particulate Matter (PM) concentration data from five air quality monitoring stations in the Skopje metropolitan area, applied relevant concentration-response functions, and evaluated health impacts against two theoretical policy scenarios. We then calculated the burden of disease attributable to PM and calculated the societal cost due to attributable mortality. In 2012, long-term exposure to PM 2.5 (49.2 μg/m³) caused an estimated 1199 premature deaths (CI95% 821-1519). The social cost of the predicted premature mortality in 2012 due to air pollution was estimated at between 570 and 1470 million euros. Moreover, PM 2.5 was also estimated to be responsible for 547 hospital admissions (CI95% 104-977) from cardiovascular diseases, and 937 admissions (CI95% 937-1869) for respiratory disease that year. Reducing PM 2.5 levels to the EU limit (25 μg/m³) could have averted an estimated 45% of PM-attributable mortality, while achieving the WHO Air Quality Guidelines (10 μg/m³) could have averted an estimated 77% of PM-attributable mortality. Both scenarios would also attain significant reductions in attributable respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Besides its health impacts in terms of increased premature mortality and hospitalizations, air pollution entails significant economic costs to the population of Skopje. Reductions in PM 2.5 concentrations could provide substantial health and economic gains to the city.

Changes in directly alcohol-attributable mortality during the great recession by employment status in Spain: a population cohort of 22 million people.

PubMed

Alonso, Ignacio; Vallejo, Fernando; Regidor, Enrique; Belza, M José; Sordo, Luis; Otero-García, Laura; Barrio, Gregorio

2017-08-01

Macroeconomic fluctuations can impact differentially on alcohol-related problems across sociodemographic groups. We assess trend changes in directly alcohol-attributable (DAA) mortality in the population aged 25-64 during the post-2008 recession in Spain according to employment status and other sociodemographic factors. Nationwide cohort study covering 21.9 million people living in Spain in 2001. People were classified by employment status and other factors. The annual percentage change (APC) in mortality rates during 2002-2007 (precrisis) and 2008-2011 (crisis) was estimated by the Poisson regression. The period effect size was then calculated as the difference between crisis and precrisis APCs. The age-adjusted APCs in DAA mortality were 6.9% in 2002-2007 and 3.7% in 2008-2011 among employed people, and -4.3% and -0.4%, respectively, among non-employed people. Statistically significant trend changes in such mortality during the crisis were found, which were favourable in certain employed subgroups (manual workers and employees aged 25-49), and unfavourable in the total non-employed population and certain non-employed subgroups (men, non-married and especially medium/high-wealth people). The greatest unfavourable change corresponded to non-employed people living in households of 72-104 m 2 who had 2 or more cars. Favourable changes were also found in the remaining employed subgroups, especially women and non-married people, although they did not reach statistical significance. Our findings suggest that the post-2008 Spanish crisis had a heterogeneous impact across sociodemographic subgroups on DAA mortality, and that employment status seemed to have an important effect. The impact was especially unfavourable on the non-employed, particularly those with substantial material wealth. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Providing Context for Ambient Particulate Matter and Estimates of Attributable Mortality.

PubMed

McClellan, Roger O

2016-09-01

Four papers on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) by Anenberg et al., Fann et al., Shin et al., and Smith contribute to a growing body of literature on estimated epidemiological associations between ambient PM2.5 concentrations and increases in health responses relative to baseline notes. This article provides context for the four articles, including a historical review of provisions of the U.S. Clean Air Act as amended in 1970, requiring the setting of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for criteria pollutants such as particulate matter (PM). The substantial improvements in both air quality for PM and population health as measured by decreased mortality rates are illustrated. The most recent revision of the NAAQS for PM2.5 in 2013 by the Environmental Protection Agency distinguished between (1) uncertainties in characterizing PM2.5 as having a causal association with various health endpoints, and as all-cause mortality, and (2) uncertainties in concentration--excess health response relationships at low ambient PM2.5 concentrations below the majority of annual concentrations studied in the United States in the past. In future reviews, and potential revisions, of the NAAQS for PM2.5 , it will be even more important to distinguish between uncertainties in (1) characterizing the causal associations between ambient PM2.5 concentrations and specific health outcomes, such as all-source mortality, irrespective of the concentrations, (2) characterizing the potency of major constituents of PM2.5 , and (3) uncertainties in the association between ambient PM2.5 concentrations and specific health outcomes at various ambient PM2.5 concentrations. The latter uncertainties are of special concern as ambient PM2.5 concentrations and health morbidity and mortality rates approach background or baseline rates. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Trends in young adult mortality in three European cities: Barcelona, Bologna and Munich, 1986-1995

PubMed Central

Borrell, C; Pasarin, M; Cirera, E; Klutke, P; Pipitone, E; Plasencia, A

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE—In recent decades, in most European countries young adult mortality has risen, or at best has remained stable. The aim of this study was to describe trends in mortality attributable to the principal causes of death: AIDS, drug overdose, suicide and motor vehicle traffic accidents, among adults aged between 15 and 34 years in three European cities (Barcelona, Bologna and Munich), over the period 1986 to 1995.
METHODS—The population studied consisted of all deaths that occurred between 1986 and 1995 among residents of Barcelona, Bologna and Munich aged from 15 to 34 years. Information about deaths was obtained from mortality registers. The study variables were sex, age, the underlying cause of death and year of death. Causes of death studied were: drug overdose, AIDS, suicide and motor vehicle traffic accidents. Age standardised mortality rates (direct adjustment) were obtained in all three cities for the age range 15-34. To investigate trends in mortality over the study period Poisson regression models were fitted, obtaining the average relative risk (RR) associated with a one year increment.
RESULTS—Young adult mortality increased among men in Barcelona and Bologna (RR per year: 1.04, 95% confidence intervals (95%CI): 1.03, 1.06 in Barcelona and RR:1.03, 95%CI:1.01, 1.06 in Bologna) and among women in Barcelona (RR:1.02, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04), with a change in the pattern of the main causes of death attributable to the increase in AIDS and drug overdose mortality. In Munich, the pattern did not change as much, suicides being the main cause of death during the 10 years studied, although they have been decreasing since 1988 (RR:0.92, 95%CI:0.88, 0.96 for men and 0.81, 95%CI: 0.75-0.87 for women).
CONCLUSION—The increase in AIDS mortality observed in the three European cities in the mid-80s and mid-90s has yielded to substantial changes in the pattern of the main causes of death at young ages in Barcelona and Bologna. Munich presented a more stable pattern, with suicide as the main cause of death.


Keywords: young adult mortality; AIDS; drug overdose; suicide; traffic accidents PMID:11449016

A Novel Indicator of Life-Course Smoking Prevalence in the United States Combining Popularity, Duration, Quantity, and Quality of Smoking.

PubMed

Christopoulou, Rebekka; Lillard, Dean R

2016-07-01

To develop a smoking indicator that combines the popularity and duration of smoking and the quantity and quality of consumed cigarettes, factors that vary dramatically over time and across generations. We used retrospective reports on smoking behavior and a time series of cigarette tar yields to standardize nationally representative life-course smoking prevalence rates of 11 generations of US men and women, spanning 120 years. For each generation and gender, we related the standardized data with the corresponding rates of smoking-attributable mortality. Our indicator suggests that US cigarette consumption spread, peaked, and contracted faster than commonly perceived; predicts a significantly stronger smoking-mortality correlation than unadjusted smoking prevalence; and reveals the emergence of a delay (by up to 8 years) in premature death from smoking that is consistent with increasing population access to effective treatments. In fact, we show that, among recent cohorts, smoking health-risk exposure is at a historic low and will account for less than 5% of deaths. Relative to unstandardized measures, our novel, standardized indicator of smoking prevalence describes a different history of smoking diffusion in the United States, and more strongly predicts later-life mortality.

Why do child mortality rates fall? An analysis of the Nicaraguan experience.

PubMed Central

Sandiford, P; Morales, P; Gorter, A; Coyle, E; Smith, G D

1991-01-01

A comprehensive review of available sources of mortality data was undertaken to document the changes that have occurred in infant mortality in Nicaragua over the last three decades. It was found that a rapid fall in infant mortality commenced in the early 1970s and has continued steadily since. Trends in several different factors which might have led to this breakthrough were examined including: income, nutrition, breastfeeding practices, maternal education, immunizations, access to health services, provision of water supplies and sanitation, and anti-malarial programs. Of these, improved access to health services appears to have been the most important factor. At a time when the number of hospital beds per capita was dropping, increasing numbers of health care professionals, particularly nurses, were becoming available to staff primary health care facilities built in the 1960s. These were provided at least partly in response to the growing political turmoil enveloping the nation at that time. Certain Nicaraguan cultural attributes may have added to the impact of the reforms. Efforts in the field of public health made since the 1979 insurrection appear to have maintained the decline in child mortality. PMID:1983913

Fatal occupational injuries in a southern state.

PubMed

Loomis, D P; Richardson, D B; Wolf, S H; Runyan, C W; Butts, J D

1997-06-15

Fatal occupational injuries were studied using data from medical examiners' reports in North Carolina for the years 1977-1991. Cases were defined as deaths due to accidents or homicide at the workplace, and populations at risk were estimated from the 1980 and 1990 US Censuses. Mortality rate ratios and proportionate mortality ratios were used as measures of association, and the population attributable risk percentage was used as an indicator of the burden of injury. Standard weights for direct age-adjustment of rates were obtained from the total state workforce. There were 2,524 eligible deaths-83 percent from unintentional traumatic injuries, 14 percent from homicide, and the remainder from other causes. This report focuses on unintentional trauma deaths, which were strongly associated with the wood production, fishing, and transportation industries. Elderly, African-American, and self-employed workers had higher fatality rates than members of other groups. Among male workers, motor vehicle crashes were the principal cause of death on the job, followed by falling objects, machinery, and falls. The industries contributing the largest proportions of these deaths were construction, trucking, agriculture, and logging (population attributable risk percentages were 16.8%, 8.8%, 7.9%, and 6.9%, respectively). The fatality patterns of female workers were different: Numbers of deaths from homicide and unintentional trauma were equal, and 27% of the latter deaths occurred in one catastrophic fire. Decentralized and rural industries were the most hazardous, but many deaths were outside the current jurisdiction of occupational safety and health agencies. These patterns suggest that greater scrutiny of such industries, through both research and intervention, is warranted.

Modelling determinants, impact, and space-time risk of age-specific mortality in rural South Africa: integrating methods to enhance policy relevance.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn

2013-01-24

There is a lack of reliable data in developing countries to inform policy and optimise resource allocation. Health and socio-demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) have the potential to address this gap. Mortality levels and trends have previously been documented in rural South Africa. However, complex space-time clustering of mortality, determinants, and their impact has not been fully examined. To integrate advanced methods enhance the understanding of the dynamics of mortality in space-time, to identify mortality risk factors and population attributable impact, to relate disparities in risk factor distributions to spatial mortality risk, and thus, to improve policy planning and resource allocation. Agincourt HDSS supplied data for the period 1992-2008. Advanced spatial techniques were used to identify significant age-specific mortality 'hotspots' in space-time. Multivariable Bayesian models were used to assess the effects of the most significant covariates on mortality. Disparities in risk factor profiles in identified hotspots were assessed. Increasing HIV-related mortality and a subsequent decrease possibly attributable to antiretroviral therapy introduction are evident in this rural population. Distinct space-time clustering and variation (even in a small geographic area) of mortality were observed. Several known and novel risk factors were identified, and population impact was quantified. Significant differences in the risk factor profiles of the identified 'hotspots' included ethnicity; maternal, partner, and household deaths; household head demographics; migrancy; education; and poverty. A complex interaction of highly attributable multilevel factors continues to demonstrate differential space-time influences on mortality risk (especially for HIV). High-risk households and villages displayed differential risk factor profiles. This integrated approach could prove valuable to decision makers. Tailored interventions for specific child and adult high-risk mortality areas are needed, such as preventing vertical transmission, ensuring maternal survival, and improving water and sanitation infrastructure. This framework can be applied in other settings within the region.

Infant mortality in the U.S.

PubMed

Miller, C A

1985-07-01

The speed of decline of the US infant mortality rate diminished markedly to 2.7% (10.6 deaths) in 1984, and the likelihood that the goal of an infant mortality rate of 9 will be reached by 1990 is less likely. A definite change that took place not long before the rate of decline flattened out was the reduction by the Reagan Administration in the funding of several programs for children, mothers of young children, and pregnant women. Many observers think these cutbacks have contributed significantly to the change in the infant mortality rate trend by weakening national policies for the care and protection of pregnant women. Senior officials of the Department of Health and Human Services deny the connection. They point instead to such factors as the high rate of teenage pregnancy, the use ot tobacco, alcohol, and drugs by many pregnant women, and the complex racial mixture of the US population. They also cite the possibility that high technology medicine merely postpones the death of some infants who earlier would have appeared in the statistics relating to naturally aborted pregnancies. The Administration has declined a proposal to study the effect of the cutbacks. The infant mortality rate is officially defined as deaths (per 1000 live births) in the 1st year of life. Neonatal deaths, involving babies less than 28 days old, account for 70% of infant deaths, and 2/3 of neonatal toll is attributable to low birth weight. The risk of low birth weight is increased both among black mothers and among women who give birth when they are younger than 16 or older than 35. It is also higher for women who have poor prenatal care or none, whose diet is inadequate, and who gain less than 20 pounds during pregnancy. Smoking, abuse of drugs, and excessive consumption of alcohol are factors as are stress, frequent childbearing, and previous miscarriages. The postneonatal infant mortality rate (deaths from 28 days through 12 months) is less substantially correlated with low birth weight but is heavily influenced by environmental circumstances that contribute to accidents and contagious diseases. The postneonatal rate is high among populations that have low socioeconomic status, poor sanitation, unsafe housing, and limited water supply. The period of sharpest decline in the infant mortality rate was the decade of the 1970s. Many influences were at work. These include: the expansion of social support programs; a decrease in the proportion of unwanted childbearing through the provision of easier access to family planning and abortion services; the development of nutritional supplements specifically for pregnant women, and dramatic advances in medical technology for the care of infants. To reach the goal of an infant mortality rate of 9/1000 by 1990 requires the implementation of public policies that include assured access to comprehensive perinatal care, guaranteed maternity leaves, job protection during the leave, and cash benefits equal to a significant portion of wages during the leave.

Neonatal and Infant Mortality in Korea, Japan, and the U.S.: Effect of Birth Weight Distribution and Birth Weight-Specific Mortality Rates.

PubMed

Kim, Do Hyun; Jeon, Jihyun; Park, Chang Gi; Sriram, Sudhir; Lee, Kwang Sun

2016-09-01

Difference in crude neonatal and infant mortality rates (NMR and IMR) among different countries is due to the differences in its two determinants: birth weight distribution (BWD) and birth weight-specific mortality rates (BW-SMRs). We aimed to determine impact of BWD and BW-SMRs on differences in crude NMR and IMR among Korea, Japan, and the U.S. Our study used the live birth data of the period 2009 through 2010. Crude NMR/IMR are the lowest in Japan, 1.1/2.1, compared to 1.8/3.2, in Korea, and 4.1/6.2, in the U.S., respectively. Japanese had the best BW-SMRs of all birth weight groups compared to the Koreans and the U.S. The U.S. BWD was unfavorable with very low birth weight (< 1,500 g) rate of 1.4%, compared to 0.6% in Korea, and 0.8% in Japan. If Koreans and Japanese had the same BWD as in the U.S., their crude NMR/IMR would be 3.9/6.1 for the Koreans and 1.5/2.5 for the Japanese. If both Koreans and Japanese had the same BW-SMRs as in the U.S., the crude NMR/IMR would be 2.0/3.8 for the Koreans and 2.7/5.0 for the Japanese. In conclusion, compared to the U.S., lower crude NMR or IMR in Japan is mainly attributable to its better BW-SMRs. Koreans had lower crude NMR and IMR, primarily from its favorable BWD. Comparing crude NMR or IMR among different countries should include further exploration of its two determinants, BW-SMRs reflecting medical care, and BWD reflecting socio-demographic conditions.

Elevated serum alpha fetoprotein levels promote pathological progression of hepatocellular carcinoma

PubMed Central

Li, Peng; Wang, Shan-Shan; Liu, Hui; Li, Ning; McNutt, Michael A; Li, Gang; Ding, Hui-Guo

2011-01-01

AIM: To investigate the biological role of alpha fetoprotein (AFP) and its clinical significance in carcinogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: Clinical analysis of HCC patients and immunohistochemical examination were conducted to evaluate the relationship between serum AFP level and patient mortality. Confocal microscopy, Western blotting, dimethylthiahzolyl-2,5-diphenyl-tetrazolium bromide, Cell Counting Kit-8 assays and flow cytometry were performed to explore the possible mechanism. RESULTS: Among the 160 HCC patients enrolled in this study, 130 patients survived 2 years (81.25%), with a survival rate of 86.8% in AFP < 2 0 μg/L group, 88.9% in AFP 20-250 μg/L group, and 69.6% in AFP > 250 μg/L group, demonstrating a higher mortality rate in HCC patients with higher AFP levels. Surgical treatment was beneficial only in patients with low AFP levels. The mortality rate of HCC patients with high AFP levels who were treated surgically was apparently higher than those treated with conservative management. The results of immunohistochemistry showed that AFP and AFP receptor were merely expressed in tissues of HCC patients with positive serum AFP. Consistently, in vitro analysis showed that AFP and AFPS were expressed in HepG2 but not in HLE cells. AFP showed a capability to promote cell growth, and this was more apparent in HepG2 cells, in which the proliferation was increased by 3.5 folds. Cell cycle analysis showed that the percentage of HepG2 cells in S phase after exposure to AFP was modestly increased. CONCLUSION: HCC patients with higher AFP levels show a higher mortality rate, which appears to be attributable to the growth promoting properties of AFP. PMID:22147961

Neonatal and Infant Mortality in Korea, Japan, and the U.S.: Effect of Birth Weight Distribution and Birth Weight-Specific Mortality Rates

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Difference in crude neonatal and infant mortality rates (NMR and IMR) among different countries is due to the differences in its two determinants: birth weight distribution (BWD) and birth weight-specific mortality rates (BW-SMRs). We aimed to determine impact of BWD and BW-SMRs on differences in crude NMR and IMR among Korea, Japan, and the U.S. Our study used the live birth data of the period 2009 through 2010. Crude NMR/IMR are the lowest in Japan, 1.1/2.1, compared to 1.8/3.2, in Korea, and 4.1/6.2, in the U.S., respectively. Japanese had the best BW-SMRs of all birth weight groups compared to the Koreans and the U.S. The U.S. BWD was unfavorable with very low birth weight (< 1,500 g) rate of 1.4%, compared to 0.6% in Korea, and 0.8% in Japan. If Koreans and Japanese had the same BWD as in the U.S., their crude NMR/IMR would be 3.9/6.1 for the Koreans and 1.5/2.5 for the Japanese. If both Koreans and Japanese had the same BW-SMRs as in the U.S., the crude NMR/IMR would be 2.0/3.8 for the Koreans and 2.7/5.0 for the Japanese. In conclusion, compared to the U.S., lower crude NMR or IMR in Japan is mainly attributable to its better BW-SMRs. Koreans had lower crude NMR and IMR, primarily from its favorable BWD. Comparing crude NMR or IMR among different countries should include further exploration of its two determinants, BW-SMRs reflecting medical care, and BWD reflecting socio-demographic conditions. PMID:27510390

Mortality Salience, System Justification, and Candidate Evaluations in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

PubMed Central

Sterling, Joanna; Jost, John T.; Shrout, Patrick E.

2016-01-01

Experiments conducted during the 2004 and 2008 U.S. presidential elections suggested that mortality salience primes increased support for President George W. Bush and Senator John McCain, respectively. Some interpreted these results as reflecting “conservative shift” following exposure to threat, whereas others emphasized preferences for “charismatic” leadership following exposure to death primes. To assess both hypotheses in the context of a new election cycle featuring a liberal incumbent who was considered to be charismatic, we conducted four experiments shortly before the 2012 election involving President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney. Contrary to earlier studies, there was little evidence that mortality salience, either by itself or in interaction with political orientation, affected overall candidate ratings or voting intentions. However, a significant interaction between mortality salience and system justification in some studies indicated a more circumscribed effect. The failure to “replicate” previous results in the context of this election may be attributable to disagreement among participants as to which of the candidates better represented the societal status quo. PMID:26982197

[Disease burden caused by violence in the Chinese population, in 1990 and 2013].

PubMed

Yang, L; Gao, X; Jin, Y; Ye, P P; Er, Y L; Deng, X; Wang, Y; Duan, L L

2017-10-10

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of violence in the Chinese population, in 1990 and 2013. Methods: Indicators including mortality rate, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted of life years (DALY) related to violence, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 and used to describe the burden of disease caused by violence in the Chinese population. Data related to corresponding parameters on disease burden of violence in 1990 and 2013 were described. Results: In 2013, a total of 20 500 people died of violent events, with the death rate as 1.44 per 100 000, in China. DALY caused by violence was 1.08 million person years in 2013. DALY caused by sharp violence was 0.47 million person years, with 0.09 million person years lost due to firearm violence. Disease burden caused by violence appeared higher in males than in females. When comparing with data from the 1990s, reductions were seen by 67.35 % on the standardized death rate of violence, by 68.07 % on the DALY attributable to violence, and by 70.47 % on the standardized DALY rate attributable to violence, respectively, in 2013. Disease burden of violence among young adults and elderly was among the highest. When comparing with data from the 1990, DALY in 2013 decreased among all the age groups except for the 70-year-old showed an increase of 9.36 % . The standardized DALY rate in 2013 showed a declining trend in all the age groups, mostly in the 0-4-year-old group. The standardized DALY rates caused by sharp violence or firearm decreased by75.11 % and 83.20 % in the 0-4-year-old group. Conclusion: In recent years, the disease burden caused by violence showed a decreasing trend but appeared higher in males however with the increase of DALY in the elder population.

Cardiopulmonary mortality and COPD attributed to ambient ozone.

PubMed

Khaniabadi, Yusef Omidi; Hopke, Philip K; Goudarzi, Gholamreza; Daryanoosh, Seyed Mohammad; Jourvand, Mehdi; Basiri, Hassan

2017-01-01

Tropospheric ozone is the second most important atmospheric pollutant after particulate matter with respect to its impact on human health and is increasing of its concentrations globally. The main objective of this study was to assess of health effects attributable to ground-level ozone (O 3 ) in Kermanshah, Iran using one-hour O 3 concentrations measured between March 2014 and March 2015. The AirQ program was applied for estimation of the numbers of cardiovascular mortality (CM), respiratory mortality (RM), and hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HA-COPD) using relative risk (RR) and baseline incidence (BI) as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). The largest percentage of person-days for different O 3 concentrations was in the concentration range of 30-39µg/m 3 . The health modeling results suggested that ~2% (95% CI: 0-2.9%) of cardiovascular mortality, 5.9% (95% CI: 2.3-9.4) of respiratory mortality, and 4.1% (CI: 2.5-6.1%) of the HA-COPD were attributed to O 3 concentrations higher than 10µg/m 3 . For each 10µg/m 3 increase in O 3 concentration, the risk of cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, and HA-COPD increased by 0.40%, 1.25%, and 0.86%, respectively. Furthermore, 88.8% of health effects occurred on days with O 3 level less than 100µg/m 3 . Thus, action is needed to reduce the emissions of O 3 precursors especially transport and energy production in Kermanshah. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Gender-specific mortality in DTP-IPV- and MMR±MenC-eligible age groups to determine possible sex-differential effects of vaccination: an observational study.

PubMed

Schurink-van't Klooster, Tessa M; Knol, Mirjam J; de Melker, Hester E; van der Sande, Marianne A B

2015-03-24

Several studies suggested that vaccines could have non-specific effects on mortality depending on the type of vaccine. Non-specific effects seem to be different in boys and girls. In this study we want to investigate whether there are differences in gender-specific mortality among Dutch children according to the last vaccination received. We tested the hypothesis that the mortality rate ratio for girls versus boys is more favourable for girls following MMR±MenC vaccination (from 14 months of age) compared with the ratio following DTP-IPV vaccination (2-13 months of age). Secondarily, we investigated whether there were gender-specific changes in mortality following booster vaccination at 4 years of age. This observational study included all Dutch children aged 0-11 years from 2000 until 2011. Age groups were classified according to the last vaccination offered. The mortality rates for all natural causes of death were calculated by gender and age group. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were computed using a multivariable Poisson analysis to compare mortality in boys and girls across different age groups. The study population consisted of 6,261,472 children. During the study period, 14,038 children (0.22%) died, 91% of which were attributed to a known natural cause of death. The mortality rate for natural causes was higher among boys than girls in all age groups. Adjusted IRRs for girls compared with boys ranged between 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.89) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.77-1.07) over the age groups. The IRR did not significantly differ between all vaccine-related age groups (p=0.723), between children 2-13 months (following DTP-IPV vaccination) and 14 months-3 years (following MMR±MenC vaccination) (p=0.493) and between children 14 months-3 years and 4-8 years old (following DTP-IPV vaccination) (p=0.868). In the Netherlands, a high income country, no differences in gender-specific mortality related to the type of last vaccination received were observed in DTP-IPV- and MMR ± MenC eligible age groups. The inability to detect this effect indicates that when non-specific effects were present the effects were not reflected in changes in the differences in mortality between boys and girls. The findings in this large population-based study are reassuring for the continued trust in the safety of the national vaccination programme.

Estimating the acute effects of fine and coarse particle pollution on stroke mortality of in six Chinese subtropical cities.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaojie; Qian, Zhengmin; Wang, Xiaojie; Hong, Hua; Yang, Yin; Xu, Yanjun; Xu, Xiaojun; Yao, Zhenjiang; Zhang, Lingli; Rolling, Craig A; Schootman, Mario; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Zeng, Weilin; Ma, Wenjun; Lin, Hualiang

2018-05-08

While increasing evidence suggested that PM 2.5 is the most harmful fraction of the particle pollutants, the health effects of coarse particles (PM 10-2.5 ) have been inconclusive, especially on cerebrovascular diseases, we thus evaluated the effects of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10-2.5 on stroke mortality in six Chinese subtropical cities using generalized additive models. We also conducted random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the overall effects across the six cities. We found that PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10-2.5 were significantly associated with stroke mortality. Each 10 μg/m 3 increase of PM 10 , PM 2.5 and PM 10-2.5 (lag03) was associated with an increase of 1.88% (95% CI: 1.37%, 2.39%), 3.07% (95% CI: 2.35%, 3.79%), and 5.72% (95% CI: 3.82%, 7.65%) in overall stroke mortality. Using the World Health Organization's guideline as reference concentration, we estimated that 3.21% (95% CI: 1.65%, 3.01%) of stroke mortality (corresponding to 1743 stroke mortalities, 95% CI: 896, 1633) were attributed to PM 10 , 5.57% (95% CI: 0.50%, 1.23%) stroke mortality (3019, 95% CI: 2286, 3777) were attributed to PM 2.5 , and 2.02% (95% CI: 1.85%, 3.08%) of stroke mortality (1097, 95% CI: 1005, 1673) could be attributed to PM 10-2.5 . Our analysis indicates that both PM 2.5 and PM 10-2.5 are important risk factors of stroke mortality and should be considered in the prevention and control of stroke in the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in socioeconomic inequality of alcohol-attributable mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Probst, Charlotte; Roerecke, Michael; Behrendt, Silke; Rehm, Jürgen

2015-05-01

The present analysis contributes to understanding the societal distribution of alcohol-attributable harm by investigating socioeconomic inequality and related gender differences in alcohol-attributable mortality. A systematic literature search was performed on Web of Science, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and ETOH from their inception until February 2013. Articles were included when they reported data on alcohol-attributable mortality by socioeconomic status (SES), operationalised as education, occupation, employment status or income. Gender-specific relative risks (RR) comparing low with high SES were pooled using random effects meta-analyses. Gender differences were additionally investigated in random effects meta-regressions. Nineteen articles from 14 countries were included. For women, significant RRs across all measures of SES, except employment status, were found, ranging between 1.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.54; occupation] and 4.78 (95% CI 2.57-8.87; income). For men, all measures of SES showed significant RRs ranging between 2.88 (95% CI 2.45-3.40; income) and 12.25 (95% CI 11.45-13.10; employment status). While RRs for men were in general slightly higher, only for occupation this gender difference was above chance (P = 0.01). Results refer to deaths 100% attributable to alcohol. The results are predominantly based on data from high-income countries, limiting generalisability. Alcohol-attributable mortality is strongly distributed to the disadvantage of persons with a low SES. Marked gender differences in this inequality were found for occupation. Possibly male-dominated occupations of low SES were more strongly related to risky drinking cultures compared with female-dominated occupations of the same SES. © 2014 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

The mortality rates and the space-time patterns of John Snow's cholera epidemic map.

PubMed

Shiode, Narushige; Shiode, Shino; Rod-Thatcher, Elodie; Rana, Sanjay; Vinten-Johansen, Peter

2015-06-17

Snow's work on the Broad Street map is widely known as a pioneering example of spatial epidemiology. It lacks, however, two significant attributes required in contemporary analyses of disease incidence: population at risk and the progression of the epidemic over time. Despite this has been repeatedly suggested in the literature, no systematic investigation of these two aspects was previously carried out. Using a series of historical documents, this study constructs own data to revisit Snow's study to examine the mortality rate at each street location and the space-time pattern of the cholera outbreak. This study brings together records from a series of historical documents, and prepares own data on the estimated number of residents at each house location as well as the space-time data of the victims, and these are processed in GIS to facilitate the spatial-temporal analysis. Mortality rates and the space-time pattern in the victims' records are explored using Kernel Density Estimation and network-based Scan Statistic, a recently developed method that detects significant concentrations of records such as the date and place of victims with respect to their distance from others along the street network. The results are visualised in a map form using a GIS platform. Data on mortality rates and space-time distribution of the victims were collected from various sources and were successfully merged and digitised, thus allowing the production of new map outputs and new interpretation of the 1854 cholera outbreak in London, covering more cases than Snow's original report and also adding new insights into their space-time distribution. They confirmed that areas in the immediate vicinity of the Broad Street pump indeed suffered from excessively high mortality rates, which has been suspected for the past 160 years but remained unconfirmed. No distinctive pattern was found in the space-time distribution of victims' locations. The high mortality rates identified around the Broad Street pump are consistent with Snow's theory about cholera being transmitted through contaminated water. The absence of a clear space-time pattern also indicates the water-bourne, rather than the then popular belief of air bourne, nature of cholera. The GIS data constructed in this study has an academic value and would cater for further research on Snow's map.

Green tree frog (Hyla cinerea) and ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus spilosoma) mortality attributed to inland brevetoxin transportation at Padre Island National Seashore, Texas, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buttke, Danielle E.; Walker, Alicia; Huang, I-Shuo; Flewelling, Leanne; Lankton, Julia S.; Ballmann, Anne E.; Clapp, Travis; Lindsay, James; Zimba, Paul V.

2018-01-01

On 16 September 2015, a red tide (Karenia brevis) bloom impacted coastal areas of Padre Island National Seashore Park. Two days later and about 0.9 km inland, 30–40 adult green tree frogs (Hyla cinerea) were found dead after displaying tremors, weakness, labored breathing, and other signs of neurologic impairment. A rainstorm, accompanied by high winds, rough surf, and high tides, which could have aerosolized brevetoxin, occurred on the morning of the mortality event. Frog carcasses were healthy but contained significant brevetoxin in tissues. Tissue brevetoxin was also found in two dead or dying spotted ground squirrels (Xerospermophilus spilosoma) and a coyote (Canis latrans). Rainwater collected from the location of the mortality event contained brevetoxin. Mortality of green tree frog and ground squirrel mortality has not been previously attributed to brevetoxin exposure and such mortality suggested that inland toxin transport, possibly through aerosols, rainfall, or insects, may have important implications for coastal species.

Epidemiology of prostate and kidney cancer in the Aboriginal population of Canada: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Wong, Emily Chu Lee; Kapoor, Anil

2017-01-01

Introduction Prostate and kidney cancer rates in the Aboriginal population of Canada is a growing issue. Methods A systematic review of prostate and kidney cancer epidemiology in the Aboriginal population of Canada was performed with international comparison and evaluation of present epidemiological disparities. PubMed, Medline, and Embase (from January 1946 to June 2016), relevant government-published reports, and the websites of organizations contributing to prostate or kidney cancer guidelines were searched. We included studies that informed any of the three epidemiological questions this review is focused on answering. Results Two systematic reviews, two meta-analyses, five literature reviews, and 21 single-study papers were included. The incidence and mortality rates of kidney cancer were elevated among Canadian Aboriginals when compared to the provincial or national population and to several international regions. No studies reported data on survival. Prostate cancer incidence, mortality, and survival rates were lower in Aboriginals provincially, nationally, and internationally, with incidence and survival reaching statistical significance. Elevated rate of risk factors for kidney cancer was a significant finding among Canadian Aboriginals. Aboriginals were screened for prostate cancer less than the general Canadian population, a trend also observed in the U.S. Conclusions The elevated incidence and mortality of kidney cancer among Canadian Aboriginals is most likely attributable to the rise in lifestyle-based risk factors. Two correlations concerning prostate cancer are made. However, due to temporal and regional disparities in data, further investigation is required to elucidate these observations. PMID:28503238

Antibiotics for the treatment of dysentery in children.

PubMed

Traa, Beatrix S; Walker, Christa L Fischer; Munos, Melinda; Black, Robert E

2010-04-01

Ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone and pivmecillinam are the antibiotics currently recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the treatment of dysentery in children; yet there have been no reviews of the clinical effectiveness of these antibiotics in recent years. We reviewed all literature reporting the effect of ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone and pivmecillinam for the treatment of dysentery in children in the developing countries. We used a standardized abstraction and grading format and performed meta-analyses to determine the effect of treatment with these antibiotics on rates of treatment failure, bacteriological failure and bacteriological relapse. The CHERG Standard Rules were applied to determine the final effect of treatment with these antibiotics on diarrhoea mortality. Eight papers were selected for abstraction. Treatment with ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone or pivmecillinam resulted in a cure rate of >99% while assessing clinical failure, bacteriological failure and bacteriological relapse. The antibiotics recommended by the WHO--ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone and pivmecillinam--are effective in reducing the clinical and bacteriological signs and symptoms of dysentery and thus can be expected to decrease diarrhoea mortality attributable to dysentery.

The effect of alcoholic beverage excise tax on alcohol-attributable injury mortalities.

PubMed

Son, Chong Hwan; Topyan, Kudret

2011-04-01

This study examines the effect of state excise taxes on different types of alcoholic beverages (spirits, wine, and beer) on alcohol-attributable injury mortalities--deaths caused by motor vehicle accidents, suicides, homicides, and falls--in the United States between 1995 and 2004, using state-level panel data. There is evidence that injury deaths attributable to alcohol respond differently to changes in state excise taxes on alcohol-specific beverages. This study examines the direct relationship between injury deaths and excise taxes without testing the degree of the association between excise taxes and alcohol consumption. The study finds that beer taxes are negatively related to motor vehicle accident mortality, while wine taxes are negatively associated with suicides and falls. The positive coefficient of the spirit taxes on falls implies a substitution effect between spirits and wine, suggesting that an increase in spirit tax will cause spirit buyers to purchase more wine. This study finds no evidence of a relationship between homicides and state excise taxes on alcohol. Thus, the study concludes that injury deaths attributable to alcohol respond differently to the excise taxes on different types of alcoholic beverages.

Differences in mortality between groups of older migrants and older non-migrants in Belgium, 2001-09.

PubMed

Reus-Pons, Matias; Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Janssen, Fanny; Kibele, Eva U B

2016-12-01

European societies are rapidly ageing and becoming multicultural. We studied differences in overall and cause-specific mortality between migrants and non-migrants in Belgium specifically focusing on the older population. We performed a mortality follow-up until 2009 of the population aged 50 and over living in Flanders and the Brussels-Capital Region by linking the 2001 census data with the population and mortality registers. Overall mortality differences were analysed via directly age-standardized mortality rates. Cause-specific mortality differences between non-migrants and various western and non-western migrant groups were analysed using Poisson regression models, controlling for age (model 1) and additionally controlling for socio-economic status and urban typology (model 2). At older ages, most migrants had an overall mortality advantage relative to non-migrants, regardless of a lower socio-economic status. Specific migrant groups (e.g. Turkish migrants, French and eastern European male migrants and German female migrants) had an overall mortality disadvantage, which was, at least partially, attributable to a lower socio-economic status. Despite the general overall mortality advantage, migrants experienced higher mortality from infectious diseases, diabetes-related causes, respiratory diseases (western migrants), cardiovascular diseases (non-western female migrants) and lung cancer (western female migrants). Mortality differences between older migrants and non-migrants depend on cause of death, age, sex, migrant origin and socio-economic status. These differences can be related to lifestyle, social networks and health care use. Policies aimed at reducing mortality inequalities between older migrants and non-migrants should address the specific health needs of the various migrant groups, as well as socio-economic disparities. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

The effect of prenatal support on birth outcomes in an urban midwestern county.

PubMed

Schlenker, Thomas; Dresang, Lee T; Ndiaye, Mamadou; Buckingham, William R; Leavitt, Judith W

2012-12-01

In Dane County, Wisconsin, the black-white infant mortality gap started decreasing from 2000 and was eliminated from 2004 to 2007. Unfortunately, it has reappeared since 2008. This paper examines risk factors and levels of prenatal care to identify key contributors to the dramatic decline and recent increase in black infant mortality and extremely premature birth rates. This retrospective cohort study analyzed approximately 100,000 Dane County birth, fetal, and infant death records from 1990 to 2007. Levels of prenatal care received were categorized as "less-than-standard," "standard routine" or "intensive." US Census data analysis identified demographic and socioeconomic changes. Infant mortality rates and extremely premature ( < or = 28 weeks gestation) birth rates were main outcome measures. Contributions to improved outcomes were measured by calculating relative risk, risk difference and population attributable fraction (PAF). Mean income and food stamp use by race were analyzed as indicators of general socioeconomic changes suspected to be responsible for worsening outcomes since 2008. Risk of extremely premature delivery for black women receiving standard routine care and intensive care decreased from 1990-2000 to 2001-2007 by 77.8% (95% CI = 49.9-90.1%) and 57.3% (95% CI = 27.6-74.8%) respectively. Women receiving less-than-standard care showed no significant improvement over time. Racial gaps in mean income and food stamp use narrowed 2002-2007 and widened since 2008. Prenatal support played an important role in improving black birth outcomes and eliminating the Dane County black-white infant mortality gap. Increasing socioeconomic disparities with worsening US economy since 2008 likely contributed to the gap's reappearance.

Waitlist Outcomes for Patients Relisted Following Failed Donation After Cardiac Death Liver Transplant: Implications for Awarding Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Exception Scores.

PubMed

Croome, K P; Lee, D D; Nguyen, J H; Keaveny, A P; Taner, C B

2017-09-01

Understanding of outcomes for patients relisted for ischemic cholangiopathy following a donation after cardiac death (DCD) liver transplant (LT) will help standardization of a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception scheme for retransplantation. Early relisting (E-RL) for DCD graft failure caused by primary nonfunction (PNF) or hepatic artery thrombosis (HAT) was defined as relisting ≤14 days after DCD LT, and late relisting (L-RL) due to biliary complications was defined as relisting 14 days to 3 years after DCD LT. Of 3908 DCD LTs performed nationally between 2002 and 2016, 540 (13.8%) patients were relisted within 3 years of transplant (168 [4.3%] in the E-RL group, 372 [9.5%] in the L-RL group). The E-RL and L-RL groups had waitlist mortality rates of 15.4% and 10.5%, respectively, at 3 mo and 16.1% and 14.3%, respectively, at 1 year. Waitlist mortality in the L-RL group was higher than mortality and delisted rates for patients with exception points for both hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) at 3- to 12-mo time points (p < 0.001). Waitlist outcomes differed in patients with early DCD graft failure caused by PNF or HAT compared with those with late DCD graft failure attributed to biliary complications. In L-RL, higher rates of waitlist mortality were noted compared with patients listed with exception points for HCC or HPS. © 2017 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Four Principles to Consider Before Advising Women on Screening Mammography.

PubMed

Keen, John D; Jørgensen, Karsten J

2015-11-01

This article reviews four important screening principles applicable to screening mammography in order to facilitate informed choice. The first principle is that screening may help, hurt, or have no effect. In order to reduce mortality and mastectomy rates, screening must reduce the rate of advanced disease, which likely has not happened. Through overdiagnosis, screening produces substantial harm by increasing both lumpectomy and mastectomy rates, which offsets the often-promised benefit of less invasive therapy. Next, all-cause mortality is the most reliable way to measure the efficacy of a screening intervention. Disease-specific mortality is biased due to difficulties in attribution of cause of death and to increased mortality due to overdiagnosis and the resulting overtreatment with radiotherapy and chemotherapy. To enhance participation, the benefit from screening is often presented in relative instead of absolute terms. Third, some screening statistics must be interpreted with caution. Increased survival time and the percentage of early-stage tumors at detection sound plausible, but are affected by lead-time and length biases. In addition, analyses that only include women who attend screening cannot reliably correct for selection bias. The final principle is that accounting for tumor biology is important for accurate estimates of lead time, and the potential benefit from screening. Since "early detection" is actually late in a tumor's lifetime, the time window when screen detection might extend a woman's life is narrow, as many tumors that can form metastases will already have done so. Instead of encouraging screening mammography, physicians should help women make an informed decision as with any medical intervention.

Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico

PubMed Central

Comas‐García, Andreu; García‐Sepúlveda, Christian A.; Méndez‐de Lira, José J.; Aranda‐Romo, Saray; Hernández‐Salinas, Alba E.; Noyola, Daniel E.

2010-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Comas‐García et al. (2011) Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2), 76–82. Background  Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Starting in 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus has become one of the leading respiratory pathogens worldwide. However, the overall impact of this virus as a cause of mortality has not been clearly defined. Objectives  To determine the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on mortality in a Mexican population. Methods  We assessed the impact of pandemic influenza virus on mortality during the first and second outbreaks in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and compared it to mortality associated with seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the previous winter seasons. Results  We estimated that, on average, 8·1% of all deaths that occurred during the 2003–2009 seasons were attributable to influenza and RSV. During the first pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak, there was an increase in mortality in persons 5–59 years of age, but not during the second outbreak (Fall of 2009). Overall, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks had similar effects on mortality to those associated with seasonal influenza virus epidemics. Conclusions  The impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on mortality during the first year of the pandemic was similar to that observed for seasonal influenza. The establishment of real‐time surveillance systems capable of integrating virological, morbidity, and mortality data may result in the timely identification of outbreaks so as to allow for the institution of appropriate control measures to reduce the impact of emerging pathogens on the population. PMID:21306570

Risk behaviours and self rated health in Russia 1998

PubMed Central

Carlson, P

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES—As self rated health and mortality represent different dimensions of public health and as risk behaviours have been closely related to mortality, we wanted to examine whether (poor) self rated health on the one hand and risk behaviours on the other can be attributed to different causes.
METHODS—The Taganrog household survey (1998) was conducted in the form of face to face interviews and included 1009 people and their families. To estimate health differences and differences in risk behaviours between groups, logistic regressions were performed.
RESULTS—In Taganrog between 1993/94 and 1998, changes in self rated health seem to have been much more dramatic than changes in smoking and different in direction from changes in heavy alcohol consumption. Moreover, self rated "poor" health was especially common among those whose economic situation was worse in 1998 than 10 years before. However, having a poorer economy during the period 1988-1998, does not seem to have affected drinking or smoking habits significantly.
CONCLUSIONS—Self rated health seems to be closely related to three indicators of economic circumstances. Risk behaviours are probably important for the poor state of public health in Russia, but may be less sensitive to the economic aspects of the transition than is self rated health.


Keywords: self rated health; risk behaviours PMID:11604437

Longer-Term Impact of High and Low Temperature on Mortality: An International Study to Clarify Length of Mortality Displacement

PubMed Central

Bell, Michelle L.; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Leon Guo, Yue-Liang; Guo, Yuming; Goodman, Patrick; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Lavigne, Eric; Michelozzi, Paola; Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo; Schwartz, Joel; Scortichini, Matteo; Sera, Francesco; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; Wu, Chang-fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Zeka, Ariana; Gasparrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

Background: In many places, daily mortality has been shown to increase after days with particularly high or low temperatures, but such daily time-series studies cannot identify whether such increases reflect substantial life shortening or short-term displacement of deaths (harvesting). Objectives: To clarify this issue, we estimated the association between annual mortality and annual summaries of heat and cold in 278 locations from 12 countries. Methods: Indices of annual heat and cold were used as predictors in regressions of annual mortality in each location, allowing for trends over time and clustering of annual count anomalies by country and pooling estimates using meta-regression. We used two indices of annual heat and cold based on preliminary standard daily analyses: a) mean annual degrees above/below minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and b) estimated fractions of deaths attributed to heat and cold. The first index was simpler and matched previous related research; the second was added because it allowed the interpretation that coefficients equal to 0 and 1 are consistent with none (0) or all (1) of the deaths attributable in daily analyses being displaced by at least 1 y. Results: On average, regression coefficients of annual mortality on heat and cold mean degrees were 1.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3, 3.1] and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6, 1.6) per degree, respectively, and daily attributable fractions were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.3) and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.4). The proximity of the latter coefficients to 1.0 provides evidence that most deaths found attributable to heat and cold in daily analyses were brought forward by at least 1 y. Estimates were broadly robust to alternative model assumptions. Conclusions: These results provide strong evidence that most deaths associated in daily analyses with heat and cold are displaced by at least 1 y. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1756 PMID:29084393

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min

2013-01-01

Background: Climate change is anticipated to influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, estimates of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves are subject to large uncertainties and have not been projected under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated future heat wave mortality in the eastern United States (approximately 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and investigated sources of uncertainty. Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057–2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. We apportioned the sources of uncertainty in excess mortality estimates using a variance-decomposition method. Results: Estimates suggest that excess mortality attributable to heat waves in the eastern United States would result in 200–7,807 deaths/year (mean 2,379 deaths/year) in 2057–2059. Average excess mortality projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1,403 and 3,556 deaths/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern states and eastern coastal areas (excluding Maine). The major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non–heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: Mortality risks from future heat waves may be an order of magnitude higher than the mortality risks reported in 2002–2004, with thousands of heat wave–related deaths per year in the study area projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. Substantial spatial variability in county-level heat mortality estimates suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data. Citation: Wu J, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Kim YM, Liu Y. 2014. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 122:10–16; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306670 PMID:24192064

The Contribution of Smoking to Black-White Differences in U.S. Mortality

PubMed Central

Ho, Jessica Y.; Elo, Irma T.

2012-01-01

Smoking has significantly impacted American mortality and remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. No previous study has systematically examined the contribution of smoking-attributable deaths to mortality trends among blacks or to black-white mortality differences at older ages over time in the United States. In this article, we employ multiple methods and data sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of this contribution. We find that smoking has contributed to the black-white gap in life expectancy at age 50 for males, accounting for 20 % to 48 % of the gap between 1980 and 2005, but not for females. The fraction of deaths attributable to smoking at ages above 50 is greater for black males than for white males; and among men, current smoking status explains about 20 % of the black excess relative risk in all-cause mortality at ages above 50 without adjustment for socioeconomic characteristics. These findings advance our understanding of the contribution of smoking to contemporary mortality trends and differences and reinforce the need for interventions that better address the needs of all groups. PMID:23086667

Incidence and admission rates for severe malaria and their impact on mortality in Africa.

PubMed

Camponovo, Flavia; Bever, Caitlin A; Galactionova, Katya; Smith, Thomas; Penny, Melissa A

2017-01-03

Appropriate treatment of life-threatening Plasmodium falciparum malaria requires in-patient care. Although the proportion of severe cases accessing in-patient care in endemic settings strongly affects overall case fatality rates and thus disease burden, this proportion is generally unknown. At present, estimates of malaria mortality are driven by prevalence or overall clinical incidence data, ignoring differences in case fatality resulting from variations in access. Consequently, the overall impact of preventive interventions on disease burden have not been validly compared with those of improvements in access to case management or its quality. Using a simulation-based approach, severe malaria admission rates and the subsequent severe malaria disease and mortality rates for 41 malaria endemic countries of sub-Saharan Africa were estimated. Country differences in transmission and health care settings were captured by use of high spatial resolution data on demographics and falciparum malaria prevalence, as well as national level estimates of effective coverage of treatment for uncomplicated malaria. Reported and modelled estimates of cases, admissions and malaria deaths from the World Malaria Report, along with predicted burden from simulations, were combined to provide revised estimates of access to in-patient care and case fatality rates. There is substantial variation between countries' in-patient admission rates and estimated levels of case fatality rates. It was found that for many African countries, most patients admitted for in-patient treatment would not meet strict criteria for severe disease and that for some countries only a small proportion of the total severe cases are admitted. Estimates are highly sensitive to the assumed community case fatality rates. Re-estimation of national level malaria mortality rates suggests that there is substantial burden attributable to inefficient in-patient access and treatment of severe disease. The model-based methods proposed here offer a standardized approach to estimate the numbers of severe malaria cases and deaths based on national level reporting, allowing for coverage of both curative and preventive interventions. This makes possible direct comparisons of the potential benefits of scaling-up either category of interventions. The profound uncertainties around these estimates highlight the need for better data.

Impact of unemployment variations on suicide mortality in Western European countries (2000-2010).

PubMed

Laanani, Moussa; Ghosn, Walid; Jougla, Eric; Rey, Grégoire

2015-02-01

A scientific debate is currently taking place on whether the 2008 economic crisis caused an increase in suicide rates. Our main objective was to assess the impact of unemployment rate on suicide rate in Western European countries between 2000 and 2010. We then tried to estimate the excess number of suicides attributable to the increase of unemployment during the 2008-2010 economic crisis. The yearly suicide rates were modelled using a quasi-Poisson model, controlling for sex, age, country and a linear time trend. For each country, the unemployment-suicide association was assessed, and the excess number of suicides attributable to the increase of unemployment was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed, notably in order to evaluate whether the unemployment-suicide association found was biased by a confounding context effect ('crisis effect'). A significant 0.3% overall increase in suicide rate for a 10% increase in unemployment rate (95% CI 0.1% to 0.5%) was highlighted. This association was significant in three countries: 0.7% (95% CI 0.0% to 1.4%) in the Netherlands, 1.0% (95% CI 0.2% to 1.8%) in the UK and 1.9% (95% CI 0.8% to 2.9%) in France, with a significant excess number of suicides attributable to unemployment variations between 2008 and 2010 (respectively 57, 456 and 564). The association was modified inconsistently when adding a 'crisis effect' into the model. Unemployment and suicide rates are globally statistically associated in the investigated countries. However, this association is weak, and its amplitude and sensitivity to the 'crisis effect' vary across countries. This inconsistency provides arguments against its causal interpretation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

2010-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

Trends in diabetes mellitus mortality in Puerto Rico: 1980-1997.

PubMed

Pérez-Perdomo, R; Pérez-Cardona, C M; Suárez-Pérez, E L

2001-03-01

To determine the characteristics and trends of diabetes mortality among the Puerto Rican population from 1980 through 1997. Death certificates for Puerto Rican residents whose underlying cause of death was diabetes mellitus (ICD-9-250.0) were reviewed, and sociodemographic information was abstracted. The proportion mortality ratio (PMR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by gender, age group, educational level and period of time. Trend analysis in mortality was performed using a Poisson regression model. A total of 26,193 deaths (5.8%) were primarily attributed to diabetes mellitus in the study period. Females accounted for 55.8% of all diabetes related deaths. Diabetes accounted for a higher proportion of deaths among persons aged 60-64 years (8.14%), persons aged 65-74 (8.12%), females (7.73%) and those with 1-6 years of education (7.08%). The PMR steadily increased from 4.55% in the 1980-85 period to 6.91% in the 1992-97 period. There was a higher mortality in male diabetic subjects aged < or = 64 than in females during the 18 year period. Between 1980 and 1991, females aged 65-74 had a higher mortality than males, however, mortality increased in males of the same age group during 1992-97. When the oldest age group (> or = 75) was examined, males had a higher mortality between 1986 and 1997, whereas females had a slightly higher rate between 1980 and 1985. Our results indicate that diabetes mortality has been markedly increasing in the Puerto Rican population, primarily in persons aged 65 years or more. Further analysis is needed to evaluate the determinants of mortality in diabetes.

Survival or Mortality: Does Risk Attribute Framing Influence Decision-Making Behavior in a Discrete Choice Experiment?

PubMed

Veldwijk, Jorien; Essers, Brigitte A B; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Dirksen, Carmen D; Smit, Henriette A; de Wit, G Ardine

2016-01-01

To test how attribute framing in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) affects respondents' decision-making behavior and their preferences. Two versions of a DCE questionnaire containing nine choice tasks were distributed among a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55 to 65 years. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision regarding participation in genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). The risk attribute included was framed positively as the probability of surviving CRC and negatively as the probability of dying from CRC. Panel mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the attributes. The data of the positively and negatively framed DCE were compared on the basis of direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, preferences, and importance scores. The majority (56%) of the respondents ranked survival as the most important attribute in the positively framed DCE, whereas only a minority (8%) of the respondents ranked mortality as the most important attribute in the negatively framed DCE. Respondents made dominant choices based on survival significantly more often than based on mortality. The framing of the risk attribute significantly influenced all attribute-level estimates and resulted in different preference structures among respondents in the positively and negatively framed data set. Risk framing affects how respondents value the presented risk. Positive risk framing led to increased dominant decision-making behavior, whereas negative risk framing led to risk-seeking behavior. Attribute framing should have a prominent part in the expert and focus group interviews, and different types of framing should be used in the pilot version of DCEs as well as in actual DCEs to estimate the magnitude of the effect of choosing different types of framing. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of fecal immunochemical testing in reducing colorectal cancer mortality from the One Million Taiwanese Screening Program.

PubMed

Chiu, Han-Mo; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Lee, Yi-Chia; Pan, Shin-Liang; Wu, Ming-Shiang; Liao, Chao-Sheng; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Koong, Shin-Lan; Chiou, Shu-Ti

2015-09-15

The effectiveness of fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality has not yet been fully assessed in a large, population-based service screening program. A prospective cohort study of the follow-up of approximately 5 million Taiwanese from 2004 to 2009 was conducted to compare CRC mortality for an exposed (screened) group and an unexposed (unscreened) group in a population-based CRC screening service targeting community residents of Taiwan who were 50 to 69 years old. Given clinical capacity, this nationwide screening program was first rolled out in 2004. In all, 1,160,895 eligible subjects who were 50 to 69 years old (ie, 21.4% of the 5,417,699 subjects of the underlying population) participated in the biennial nationwide screening program by 2009. The actual effectiveness in reducing CRC mortality attributed to the FIT screening was 62% (relative rate for the screened group vs the unscreened group, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-0.42) with a maximum follow-up of 6 years. The 21.4% coverage of the population receiving FIT led to a significant 10% reduction in CRC mortality (relative rate, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.95) after adjustments for a self-selection bias. This large, prospective Taiwanese cohort undergoing population-based FIT screening for CRC had the statistical power to demonstrate a significant CRC mortality reduction, although the follow-up time was short. Although such findings are informative for health decision makers, continued follow-up of this large cohort will be required to estimate the long-term impact of FIT screening if the covered population is expanded. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

The natural history of Dandy-Walker syndrome in the United States: A population-based analysis.

PubMed

McClelland, Shearwood; Ukwuoma, Onyinyechi I; Lunos, Scott; Okuyemi, Kolawole S

2015-01-01

Dandy-Walker syndrome (DWS) is a congenital disorder typically manifesting with hydrocephalus. The classic anatomic hallmarks of DWS are hypoplasia of the cerebellar vermis, anterior-posterior enlargement of the posterior fossa, upward displacement of the torcula and transverse sinuses, and cystic dilatation of the fourth ventricle. Although optimal treatment of DWS typically requires neurosurgical intervention to prevent intracranial pressure increases incompatible with life, the natural history of this disorder has yet to be evaluated on a nationwide level. The Kids' Inpatient Database covering 1997-2003 was used for analysis. Children younger than age 18 admitted for DWS (ICD-9-CM = 742.3) were analyzed with a matched control group. The primary procedure codes for operative CSF drainage were coded into the analysis. The incidence of DWS was 0.136%; 14,599 DWS patients were included. Multiple logistic regression models were used. Odds ratios (OR) were reported with 95% confidence intervals. Mortality (OR = 10.02; P < 0.0001) and adverse discharge disposition (OR = 4.59; P < 0.0001) were significantly greater in DWS patients compared with controls. 20.4% of DWS patients received operative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage, 81-times more than controls (P < 0.0001). CSF drainage reduced mortality by 44% among DWS patients (P < 0.0001). Although DWS is associated with a 10-fold increase in mortality, operative CSF drainage nearly halves the mortality rate. Based on these findings (Class IIB evidence), it is likely that the increased mortality associated with DWS is directly attributable to the nearly 80% of DWS patients who did not receive operative CSF drainage for hydrocephalus. Consequently, increased access to neurosurgical intervention could reduce the mortality rate of DWS towards that of the general population.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Implementing a More Severe Drunk-Driving Law in China: Findings from Two Open Access Data Sources.

PubMed

Xiao, Wangxin; Ning, Peishan; Schwebel, David C; Hu, Guoqing

2017-07-25

In 2011, China implemented a more severe drunk-driving law. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the law on road traffic morbidity and mortality attributed to alcohol use. Data were from two open-access data sources, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 update and police data. Poisson regression examined the significance of changes in morbidity and mortality. Large gaps in crude death estimates from road traffic crashes attributed to alcohol use emerged between the two data sources. For the GBD 2015 update, crude and age-standardized mortality displayed consistent trends between 1990 and 2015; age-standardized mortality per 100,000 persons increased from 5.71 in 1990 to 7.48 in 2005 and then continuously decreased down to 5.94 in 2015. Police data showed a decrease for crude mortality per 100,000 persons from 0.29 in 2006 to 0.15 in 2010 and then an increase to 0.19 in 2015. We conclude available data are inadequate to determine the effectiveness of the implementation of the more severe drunk-driving law in China since the two data sources present highly inconsistent results. Further effort is needed to tackle data inconsistencies and obtain reliable and accurate data on road traffic injury attributable to alcohol use in China.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Implementing a More Severe Drunk-Driving Law in China: Findings from Two Open Access Data Sources

PubMed Central

Xiao, Wangxin; Ning, Peishan; Hu, Guoqing

2017-01-01

In 2011, China implemented a more severe drunk-driving law. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the law on road traffic morbidity and mortality attributed to alcohol use. Data were from two open-access data sources, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 update and police data. Poisson regression examined the significance of changes in morbidity and mortality. Large gaps in crude death estimates from road traffic crashes attributed to alcohol use emerged between the two data sources. For the GBD 2015 update, crude and age-standardized mortality displayed consistent trends between 1990 and 2015; age-standardized mortality per 100,000 persons increased from 5.71 in 1990 to 7.48 in 2005 and then continuously decreased down to 5.94 in 2015. Police data showed a decrease for crude mortality per 100,000 persons from 0.29 in 2006 to 0.15 in 2010 and then an increase to 0.19 in 2015. We conclude available data are inadequate to determine the effectiveness of the implementation of the more severe drunk-driving law in China since the two data sources present highly inconsistent results. Further effort is needed to tackle data inconsistencies and obtain reliable and accurate data on road traffic injury attributable to alcohol use in China. PMID:28757551

Sweden SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking and snus prevalence and attributable deaths

PubMed Central

Near, Aimee M.; Blackman, Kenneth; Currie, Laura M.

2014-01-01

Background: This study examines the effect of past tobacco control policies and projects the effect of future policies on smoking and snus use prevalence and associated premature mortality in Sweden. Methods: The established SimSmoke model was adapted with population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data from Sweden. SimSmoke evaluates the effect of taxes, smoke-free air, mass media, marketing bans, warning labels, cessation treatment and youth access policies on smoking and snus prevalence and the number of deaths attributable to smoking and snus use by gender from 2010 to 2040. Results: Sweden SimSmoke estimates that significant inroads to reducing smoking and snus prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tax increases, especially when combined with other policies. Smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 26% in the first few years, reaching a 37% reduction within 30 years. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost 54 500 lives will be lost in Sweden due to tobacco use by the year 2040. Conclusion: Besides presenting the benefits of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, the model identifies gaps in surveillance and evaluation that can help better focus tobacco control policy in Sweden. PMID:24287030

Spatial-temporal dynamics and structural determinants of child and maternal mortality in a rural, high HIV burdened South African population, 2000-2014: a study protocol.

PubMed

Tlou, B; Sartorius, B; Tanser, F

2016-07-15

Child (infant and under-5) and maternal mortality rates are key indicators for assessing the health status of populations. South Africa's maternal and child mortality rates are high, and the country mirrors the continental trend of slow progress towards its Millennium Development Goals. Rural areas are often more affected regarding child and maternal mortalities, specifically in areas with a high HIV burden. This study aims to understand the factors affecting child and maternal mortality in the Africa Centre Demographic Surveillance Area (DSA) from 2003 to 2014 towards developing tailored interventions to reduce the deaths in resource poor settings. This will be done by identifying child and maternal mortality 'hotspots' and their associated risk factors. This retrospective study will use data for 2003-2014 from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. All homesteads in the study area have been mapped to an accuracy of <2 m, all deaths recorded and the assigned cause of death established using a verbal autopsy interview. Advanced spatial-temporal clustering techniques (both regular (Kulldorff) and irregular (FleXScan)) will be used to identify mortality 'hotspots'. Various advanced statistical modelling approaches will be tested and used to identify significant risk factors for child and maternal mortality. Differences in attributability and risk factors profiles in identified 'hotspots' will be assessed to enable tailored intervention guidance/development. This multicomponent study will enable a refined intervention model to be developed for typical rural populations with a high HIV burden. Ethical approval was received from the Biomedical Research Ethics Committee (BREC) of the University of KwaZulu-Natal (BE 169/15). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Functional outcome of plate fusions for disorders of the occipitocervical junction.

PubMed

Huckell, C B; Buchowski, J M; Richardson, W J; Williams, D; Kostuik, J P

1999-02-01

Twenty-eight patients with average followup of 27 months (range, 12-51 months) required occipitocervical fusion with plates. A 1992 to 1996 consecutive case series enrolled patients prospectively from two institutions. Five surgeons participated. Sixteen patients had inflammatory arthritis; four, osteogenesis imperfecta; three, tumors; three, congenital anomalies; one, pseudarthrosis after odontoid fracture; and one, osteoarthritis. Twenty-two of 28 (78.6%) patients had serious comorbid medical conditions. Additional halo immobilization of 6 weeks was used in 16 of 27 patients. Four patients required revision surgery. No patients showed a decline in neurologic status and average neurologic improvement was one Nurick grade. Two-year followup showed 13 (50%) excellent, nine (34.6%) good, two (7.7%) fair, and two (7.7%) poor outcomes based on a functional outcome scale. There were three deaths during the followup period (overall mortality rate of 10.7%). One death was attributable to airway obstruction, one death 14 months postoperatively was attributable to late Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus sepsis at the bone graft donor site, and one death 41 months postoperatively was attributable to a stroke. The overall fusion rate was 85.2% (23 of 27 patients), with a 96.3% (26 of 27 patients) occipitocervical fusion rate. Three patients had a possible asymptomatic end segment pseudarthrosis with screw loosening. Twenty-two of 26 (84.6%) interviewed patients would choose the surgery again if given the choice.

SEOM guidelines for the management of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

PubMed

Felip, E; Garrido, P; Trigo, J M; López-Brea, M; Paz-Ares, L; Provencio, M; Isla, D

2009-05-01

Lung cancer is currently the most common malignancy and also the leading cause of mortality related to cancer in the world [1]. The crude incidence of lung cancer in the EU is 52.5/100,000/year, while the mortality 48.7/100,000/year. Among men the rates are 82.5 and 77.0/100,000/year, and among women 23.9 and 22.3/100,000/year, respectively. Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) accounts for 80% of all cases. In Spain, there were 16,879 deaths in men, with a mean age of 68 years, and 2634 deaths in women, with a mean age of 66 years. The incidence of lung cancer in Spain was 68.3/100,000 among men and 13.8/100,000 among women, according to the latest data published in the year 2006 by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística. About 90% of lung cancer mortality among men (and 80% among women) is attributable to smoking.

Patterns, trends and sex differences in HIV/AIDS reported mortality in Latin American countries: 1996-2007

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background International cohort studies have shown that antiretroviral treatment (ART) has improved survival of HIV-infected individuals. National population based studies of HIV mortality exist in industrialized settings but few have been presented from developing countries. Our objective was to investigate on a population basis, the regional situation regarding HIV mortality and trends in Latin America (LA) in the context of adoption of public ART policies and gender differences. Methods Cause of death data from vital statistics registries from 1996 to 2007 with "good" or "average" quality of mortality data were examined. Standardized mortality rates and Poisson regression models by country were developed and differences among countries assessed to identify patterns of HIV mortality over time occurring in Latin America. Results Standardized HIV mortality following the adoption of public ART policies was highest in Panama and El Salvador and lowest in Chile. During the study period, three overall patterns were identified in HIV mortality trends- following the adoption of the free ART public policies; a remarkable decrement, a remarkable increment and a slight increment. HIV mortality was consistently higher in males compared to females. Mean age of death attributable to HIV increased in the majority of countries over the study period. Conclusions Vital statistics registries provide valuable information on HIV mortality in LA. While the introduction of national policies for free ART provision has coincided with declines in population-level HIV mortality and increasing age of death in some countries, in others HIV mortality has increased. Barriers to effective ART implementation and uptake in the context of free ART public provision policies should be further investigated. PMID:21801402

Attributable causes of colorectal cancer in China.

PubMed

Gu, Meng-Jia; Huang, Qiu-Chi; Bao, Cheng-Zhen; Li, Ying-Jun; Li, Xiao-Qin; Ye, Ding; Ye, Zhen-Hua; Chen, Kun; Wang, Jian-Bing

2018-01-05

Colorectal cancer is the 4th common cancer in China. Most colorectal cancers are due to modifiable lifestyle factors, but few studies have provided a systematic evidence-based assessment of the burden of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality attributable to the known risk factors in China. We estimated the population attributable faction (PAF) for each selected risk factor in China, based on the prevalence of exposure around 2000 and relative risks from cohort studies and meta-analyses. Among 245,000 new cases and 139,000 deaths of colorectal cancer in China in 2012, we found that 115,578 incident cases and 63,102 deaths of colorectal cancer were attributable to smoking, alcohol drinking, overweight and obesity, physical inactivity and dietary factors. Low vegetable intake was the main risk factor for colorectal cancer with a PAF of 17.9%. Physical inactivity was responsible for 8.9% of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. The remaining factors, including high red and processed meat intake, low fruit intake, alcohol drinking, overweight/obesity and smoking, accounted for 8.6%, 6.4%, 5.4%, 5.3% and 4.9% of colorectal cancer, respectively. Overall, 45.5% of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality were attributable to the joint effects of these seven risk factors. Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity, low vegetable intake, low fruit intake, and high red and processed meat intake were responsible for nearly 46% of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in China in 2012. Our findings could provide a basis for developing guidelines of colorectal cancer prevention and control in China.

Epilepsy, excess deaths and years of life lost from external causes.

PubMed

Nevalainen, Olli; Simola, Mikko; Ansakorpi, Hanna; Raitanen, Jani; Artama, Miia; Isojärvi, Jouko; Auvinen, Anssi

2016-05-01

We systematically quantified excess mortality in epilepsy patients by cause of death using the population-attributable fraction and epilepsy-attributable years of potential life lost (YPLL) by age 75 years at ages 15 and over. We updated and undertook a re-review of mortality studies from our previous systematic review following PRISMA guidelines to identify cohort studies of general epilepsy populations reporting a relative risk (RR) of death by cause relative to the background rates in the population. Studies on epilepsy prevalence were identified through published reviews. Country-specific mortality figures were obtained from the WHO World Mortality Database. We performed a pooled analysis with the DerSimonian-Laird random effects method. In countries with very high Human Development Indices, epilepsy contributed to 0.5-1.1 % of all deaths in the total population. Among external causes, suicides (RR 2.9, 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.8; I(2) 52 %) were the major contributor to YPLL, corresponding to 6.7 % and 4.2 % of excess YPLL due to epilepsy in the United States (US) and in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2010, with 541 (346-792) and 44 (28-65) excess suicide cases, respectively. Fatal accidental falls were more common, with 813 (610-1064) and 95 (71-125) excess deaths in the US and in the UK, but these caused only 2.0 % of excess YPLL as they occurred in older age groups. Suicides were the most important external cause of death in epilepsy patients in terms of excess YPLL, whereas other external causes were either more common in older ages or caused less excess deaths.

Leading Causes of Cancer Mortality - Caribbean Region, 2003-2013.

PubMed

Razzaghi, Hilda; Quesnel-Crooks, Sarah; Sherman, Recinda; Joseph, Rachael; Kohler, Betsy; Andall-Brereton, Glennis; Ivey, Marsha A; Edwards, Brenda K; Mery, Les; Gawryszewski, Vilma; Saraiya, Mona

2016-12-16

Cancer is one of the leading causes of deaths worldwide (1); in 2012, an estimated 65% of all cancer deaths occurred in the less developed regions of the world (2). In the Caribbean region, cancer is the second leading cause of mortality, with an estimated 87,430 cancer-related deaths reported in 2012 (3). The Pan American Health Organization defines the Caribbean region as a group of 27 countries that vary in size, geography, resources, and surveillance systems.* CDC calculated site- and sex-specific proportions of cancer deaths and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for 21 English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean countries, the United States, and two U.S. territories (Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands [USVI]), using the most recent 5 years of mortality data available from each jurisdiction during 2003-2013. The selection of years varied by availability of the data from the countries and territories in 2015. ASMR for all cancers combined ranged from 46.1 to 139.3 per 100,000. Among males, prostate cancers were the leading cause of cancer deaths, followed by lung cancers; the percentage of cancer deaths attributable to prostate cancer ranged from 18.4% in Suriname to 47.4% in Dominica, and the percentage of cancer deaths attributable to lung cancer ranged from 5.6% in Barbados to 24.4% in Bermuda. Among females, breast cancer was the most common cause of cancer deaths, ranging from 14.0% of cancer deaths in Belize to 29.7% in the Cayman Islands, followed by cervical cancer. Several of the leading causes of cancer deaths in the Caribbean can be reduced through primary and secondary preventions, including prevention of exposure to risk factors, screening, early detection, and timely and effective treatment.

Years of life lost due to influenza-attributable mortality in older adults in the Netherlands: a competing risks approach.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; van Wijhe, Maarten; van Asten, Liselotte; van der Hoek, Wim; Wallinga, Jacco

2018-02-06

We estimated the influenza mortality burden in adults 60 years of age and older in the Netherlands in terms of years of life lost, taking into account competing mortality risks. Weekly laboratory surveillance data for influenza and other respiratory pathogens and weekly extreme temperature served as covariates in Poisson regression models fitted to weekly age-group specific mortality data for the period 1999/2000 through 2012/13. Burden for age-groups 60-64 through 85-89 years was computed as years of life lost before age 90 (YLL90) using restricted mean lifetimes survival analysis and accounting for competing risks. Influenza-attributable mortality burden was greatest for persons aged 80-84 years, at 914 YLL90 per 100,000 persons (95% uncertainty interval:867, 963), followed by 85-89 years (787 YLL90/100,000; 95% uncertainty interval:741, 834). Ignoring competing mortality risks in the computation of influenza-attributable YLL90 would lead to substantial over-estimation of burden, from 3.5% for 60-64 years to 82% for persons aged 80-89 years at death. Failure to account for competing mortality risks has implications for accuracy of disease burden estimates, especially among persons aged 80 years and older. As the mortality burden borne by the elderly is notably high, prevention initiatives may benefit from being redesigned to more effectively prevent infection in the oldest age-groups. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The changing contribution of smoking to educational differences in life expectancy: indirect estimates for Finnish men and women from 1971 to 2010.

PubMed

Martikainen, Pekka; Ho, Jessica Y; Preston, Samuel; Elo, Irma T

2013-03-01

We estimated the contribution of smoking to educational differences in mortality and life expectancy between 1971 and 2010 in Finland. Eight prospective datasets with baseline in 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 and each linked to a 5-year mortality follow-up were used. We calculated life expectancy at age 50 years with and without smoking-attributable mortality by education and gender. Estimates of smoking-attributable mortality were based on an indirect method that used lung cancer mortality as a proxy for the impact of smoking on mortality from all other causes. Smoking-attributable deaths constituted about 27% of all male deaths above age 50 years in the early 1970s and 17% in the period 2006-2010; these figures were 1% and 4% among women, respectively. The life expectancy differential between men with basic versus high education increased from 3.4 to 4.7 years between 1971-1975 and 2006-2010. In the absence of smoking, these differences would have been 1.5 and 3.4 years, 1.9 years (55%) and 1.3 years (29%) less than those observed. Among women, educational differentials in life expectancy between the most and least educated increased from 2.5 to 3.0 years. This widening was nearly entirely accounted for by the increasing impact of smoking. Among women the contribution of smoking to educational differences had increased from being negligible in 1971-1975 to 16% in 2006-2010. Among men, the increase in educational differences in mortality in the past decades was driven by factors other than smoking. However, smoking continues to have a major influence on educational differences in mortality among men and its contribution is increasing among women.

Troubling Trends: The Health of America's Next Generation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Commission To Prevent Infant Mortality, Washington, DC.

Trends during the 1980s are described including high infant mortality, no decline in low birthweight percentages, an increase in the black-white infant mortality gap, more high-risk pregnancies, and inadequate prenatal care. Inadequate progress in reducing infant mortality is attributed in part to the limited technological ability to save…

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature

EPA Science Inventory

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quali...

Prospective association between self-reported life satisfaction and mortality: results from the MONICA/KORA Augsburg S3 survey cohort study.

PubMed

Lacruz, Maria E; Emeny, Rebecca T; Baumert, Jens; Ladwig, Karl H

2011-07-20

To identify factors which determine high life satisfaction (LS) and to analyse the prognostic influence of LS on mortality. Data collection was conducted on 2,675 participants, age 25-74 years, as part of the MONICA Augsburg Project 1994-95. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine factors associated with high LS (measured with one item, 6-level Likert scale, where "high" = very satisfied/most of the time very satisfied with ones personal life). After 12 years mean follow-up, a total of 245 deaths occurred. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted incident mortality rates per 10,000. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazards models. Independent determinants of LS were income, health-perception, and social support, as well as somatisation, anger or depressive symptoms (all p < 0.05). Participants with higher LS (n = 721, 27%) benefited the most with respect to absolute mortality risk reduction (higher LS = 67; mid = 98; low = 140 per 10,000). The sex-stratified analyses indicated an independent association of higher LS and survival for men (HR 0.55; 95% CI 0.37 - 0.81) but not for women. Baseline assessment demonstrated that psychological, social and life-style factors, but not somatic co-morbidities, were relevant determinants of LS. Moreover, the analysis showed that men with higher LS have a substantial long-term survival benefit. The observed association between LS and mortality may be attributed to common underlying causes such as social network integration and/or self-rated health.

Tuberculin status, socioeconomic differences and differences in all-cause mortality: experience from Norwegian cohorts born 1910-49.

PubMed

Liestøl, Knut; Tretli, Steinar; Tverdal, Aage; Maehlen, Jan

2009-04-01

From 1948 to 1975, Norway had a mandatory tuberculosis (TB) screening programme with Pirquet testing, X-ray examinations and BCG vaccination. Electronic data registration in 1963-75 enabled the current study aimed at revealing (i) the relations between socioeconomic factors and tuberculosis infection and (ii) differences in later all-cause mortality according to TB infection status. TB screening data were linked to information from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry (1975-98) and the National Population and Housing Censuses (1960, 1970 and 1980). Analyses were done for 10 years cohorts born 1910-49, separately for men (approximately 534,000 individuals) and women (608,000), using logistic and Cox regressions. TB infection and X-ray data confirmed the strong regional pattern seen for TB mortality, with the highest rates in the three northernmost counties and higher rates in urban than rural areas. High socioeconomic status relates to lower odds both for TB infection and TB-related chest X-ray findings (odds ratios 0.6-0.7 for highest vs lowest educational groups). Those infected by TB, and especially those with chest X-ray findings, have increased all-cause mortality in at least a 20 years period following determination of tuberculin status (hazard ratios approximately 1.15 and 1.30, respectively, higher for late than early cohorts). TB particularly affected lower socioeconomic strata, but even those in higher strata were at high risk. The differences in all-cause mortality could partly be attributed to socioeconomic factors, but we hypothesize that developing TB infection may also indicate biological frailness.

Production lost due to cervical cancer in Poland in 2012.

PubMed

Dubas-Jakóbczyk, Katarzyna; Kocot, Ewa; Seweryn, Michał; Koperny, Magdalena

Poland has one of the highest cervical cancer mortality rates in Europe. It is related to the problem of late diagnosis and low attendance rate in screening programs. The objective of the study has been to assess the annual production loss due to the cervical cancer morbidity and mortality in Poland in 2012. The outcomes have been to provide comprehensive information on cervical cancer's influence on population's ability to work and its overall economic burden for the society. The study has also provided the methodological framework for disease-related production losses in Polish settings. The human capital method was used. The production losses were calculated in both monetary and quantitative terms (working days lost) due to 4 following reasons: 1) temporary disability to work, 2) permanent disability, 3) informal care, and 4) mortality. Cervical cancer resulted in approx. 702 964 working days lost in 2012 due to absence at work for both patients and care givers and a total number of 957 678 working days lost due to patients' mortality. The total value of production lost was assessed at 111.4 million euros. More than 66% of this value was attributed to women's mortality. The calculation of production lost due to cervical cancer burden provides strong evidence to support adequate health promotion and disease prevention actions. Actions promoting cervical cancer screening should be intensified including workplace health promotion activities. Med Pr 2016;67(3):289-299. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Prospective association between self-reported life satisfaction and mortality: Results from the MONICA/KORA Augsburg S3 survey cohort study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background To identify factors which determine high life satisfaction (LS) and to analyse the prognostic influence of LS on mortality. Methods Data collection was conducted on 2,675 participants, age 25-74 years, as part of the MONICA Augsburg Project 1994-95. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine factors associated with high LS (measured with one item, 6-level Likert scale, where "high" = very satisfied/most of the time very satisfied with ones personal life). After 12 years mean follow-up, a total of 245 deaths occurred. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted incident mortality rates per 10,000. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazards models. Results Independent determinants of LS were income, health-perception, and social support, as well as somatisation, anger or depressive symptoms (all p < 0.05). Participants with higher LS (n = 721, 27%) benefited the most with respect to absolute mortality risk reduction (higher LS = 67; mid = 98; low = 140 per 10,000). The sex-stratified analyses indicated an independent association of higher LS and survival for men (HR 0.55; 95% CI 0.37 - 0.81) but not for women. Conclusions Baseline assessment demonstrated that psychological, social and life-style factors, but not somatic co-morbidities, were relevant determinants of LS. Moreover, the analysis showed that men with higher LS have a substantial long-term survival benefit. The observed association between LS and mortality may be attributed to common underlying causes such as social network integration and/or self-rated health. PMID:21774793

Conservative management of staghorn calculi: a single-centre experience.

PubMed

Deutsch, Peter G; Subramonian, Kesavapilla

2016-09-01

To evaluate the outcomes of conservatively managed staghorn calculi, specifically looking at morbidity and mortality, incidence of infections and progressive changes in renal function. A total of 22 patients with unilateral or bilateral staghorn calculi, who were treated conservatively, were included in the study. Patients were reviewed yearly with symptom assessment, urine culture and measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rate. The presentations to the urology department of staghorn calculi were incidental (41%), haematuria (36%), abdominal discomfort (5%) and recurrent urinary tract infections (UTIs; 18%). The reasons for conservative management in the cohort were comorbidities (59%), patient choice (36%) or poor access/anatomy (5%). In the whole cohort the rate of recurrent UTIs was 50%, the progressive renal failure rate was 14%, the disease-specific mortality rate was 9%, the dialysis dependence rate was 9% and the rate of hospital attendances attributable to stone-related morbidity was 27%. Comparison of outcome measures between the unilateral and bilateral staghorn stones showed statistically significant differences in disease-specific mortality (0 vs 40%) and morbidity (12 vs 80%) in favour of the unilateral group. Although there was a lower incidence of UTIs (41 vs 80%), renal deterioration (6 vs 40%) and dialysis requirement (6 vs 20%) in the unilateral group, these findings were not statistically significant. From the results, we conclude that conservative management of staghorn calculi is not as unsafe as previously thought. Careful patient selection to include unilateral asymptomatic stones with minimal infection, and thorough counselling with regard to the risks, could make conservative management a suitable option for specific patient groups. © 2015 The Authors BJU International © 2015 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Causes of death among street-connected children and youth in Eldoret, Kenya.

PubMed

Embleton, Lonnie; Ayuku, David; Makori, Dominic; Kamanda, Allan; Braitstein, Paula

2018-05-15

Street-connected young people carry a disproportionate burden of morbidities, and engage in a variety of practices that may heighten their risk of premature mortality, yet there are currently no reports in the literature on the rates or risk factors for mortality among them, nor on their causes of death. In low- and middle-income countries they are frequently in situations that violate their human rights, likely contributing to their increased burden of morbidities and vulnerability to mortality. We thus sought to describe the number of deaths annually, causes of death, and determine the number of deaths attributable to HIV among street-connected young people aged 0 to 30 years in Eldoret, Kenya. Eldoret, Kenya has approximately 1900 street-connected young people. We collected data on deaths occurring from October 2009 to December 2016 from Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital records, Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare HIV program records, and utilized verbal autopsies when no records were available. Descriptive analyses were conducted stratified by sex and age category, and frequencies and proportions were calculated to provide an overview of the decedents. We used logistic regression to assess the association between underlying cause of death and sex, while controlling for age and location of death. In total there were 100-recorded deaths, 66 among males and 34 among females; 37% of were among those aged ≤18 years. HIV/AIDS (37%) was the most common underlying cause of death, followed by assault (36%) and accidents (10%) for all decedents. Among males, the majority of deaths were attributable to assault (49%) and HIV/AIDS (26%), while females primarily died due to HIV/AIDS (59%). Our results demonstrate a high number of deaths due to assault among males and HIV/AIDS among males and females. Our findings demonstrate the need for studies of HIV prevalence and incidence among this population to characterize the burden of HIV, particularly among young women given the higher number of deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS among them. Most deaths were preventable and require the urgent attention of service providers and policymakers to implement programs and services to prevent premature mortality and uphold children's rights.

Eliciting population preferences for mass colorectal cancer screening organization.

PubMed

Nayaradou, Maximilien; Berchi, Célia; Dejardin, Olivier; Launoy, Guy

2010-01-01

The implementation of mass colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is a public health priority. Population participation is fundamental for the success of CRC screening as for any cancer screening program. The preferences of the population may influence their likelihood of participation. The authors sought to elicit population preferences for CRC screening test characteristics to improve the design of CRC screening campaigns. A discrete choice experiment was used. Questionnaires were compiled with a set of pairs of hypothetical CRC screening scenarios. The survey was conducted by mail from June 2006 to October 2006 on a representative sample of 2000 inhabitants, aged 50 to 74 years from the northwest of France, who were randomly selected from electoral lists. Questionnaires were sent to 2000 individuals, each of whom made 3 or 4 discrete choices between hypothetical tests that differed in 7 attributes: how screening is offered, process, sensitivity, rate of unnecessary colonoscopy, expected mortality reduction, method of screening test result transmission, and cost. Complete responses were received from 656 individuals (32.8%). The attributes that influenced population preferences included expected mortality reduction, sensitivity, cost, and process. Participants from high social classes were particularly influenced by sensitivity. The results demonstrate that the discrete choice experiment provides information on patient preferences for CRC screening: improving screening program effectiveness, for instance, by improving test sensitivity (the most valued attribute) would increase satisfaction among the general population with regard to CRC screening programs. Additional studies are required to study how patient preferences actually affect adherence to regular screening programs.

Preventable complications in epilepsy admissions: The "July effect".

PubMed

Pierson, Natalie S; Kramer, Daniel R; Wen, Timothy; Ho, Lianne; Patel, Arati; Donoho, Daniel; Mehta, Vivek; Heck, Christianne; Lee, Brian; Mack, William J; Liu, Charles Y

2017-11-01

Inpatient hospital stays for patients with epilepsy represent a significant burden on patients and society. Identifying factors that contribute to such costs aides in developing effective strategies to address this burden. July admissions have been associated with higher rates of complications and worse outcomes, attributed to the presence of new physicians. This study aims to evaluate whether epilepsy patients admitted in July have higher preventable complication rates and mortality than during the rest of the year. Data was derived from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for epilepsy admissions for the years 2000-2010. Multivariable analyses assessed the effect of July against non-July admission on "hospital acquired complications" (HAC), which are complications identified as owing to preventable causes and mortality. Additionally, the total adjusted charges and prolonged length of stay (pLOS) for July admissions were compared to the 50th percentile. A total of 12,997,181 admissions for epilepsy were identified with 993,619 (8%) occurring in July, 10,810,900 (83%) were non-July months, and 1,192,662 (9%) were missing data. Patients admitted in July showed an increased association for HAC events (RR=1.02, [1.01,1.03], p<0.01), but a decrease in mortality (RR=0.96, [0.95,0.97], p<0.01). There was no difference in rates of higher total adjusted charges for July admissions (RR=1.00, [1.00,1.00], p<0.01) and a decrease in rates of pLOS (RR=0.99, [0.98,0.99], p<0.01). In the epilepsy population, although July admissions were associated with a slight increase in HAC events, there was a non-significant or decreased rate of mortality, LOS, and total charge. Our results suggest that although complications were increased in July, possibly due to new staff, supervision is sufficient to prevent significant burden on patients and hospitals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of paracetamol pack size restrictions on poisoning from paracetamol in England and Wales: an observational study.

PubMed

Morgan, Oliver; Griffiths, Clare; Majeed, Azeem

2005-03-01

About 500 drug poisoning deaths involving paracetamol (acetaminophen) occur every year in England and Wales. To reduce the number of deaths, regulations were introduced in 1998 to restrict the sale of paracetamol. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of these regulations. Mortality data for England and Wales were provided by the Office for National Statistics. Deaths were defined as due to compound paracetamol (paracetamol in combination with another analgesic, a low dose opioid or other ingredients) or paracetamol only, with or without alcohol or other drugs. The Department of Health provided data on all hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of paracetamol poisoning. Mortality rates for paracetamol only were similar for males and females, and decreased from about 4.5 to 2.8 per million between 1997 and 1999 and again from about 3.1 to 2.2 per million between 2001 and 2002. These falls may be attributable to random variation in the rates. Deaths involving compound paracetamol, which were not subject to the 1998 regulations, remained relatively constant over the study period. There was evidence of a decreasing trend in paracetamol only mortality rates and this followed overall trends for other drug poisoning excluding opioids and drugs of misuse. Hospital admissions due to paracetamol poisoning increased from about 27 000 to 33 000 between 1995/1996 and 1997/1998 and then decreased to 25 000 in 2001/2002. There were almost 50 per cent more admissions for females than males, with the highest admission rates amongst females aged 15-24 years old. Between 1993 and 2002, mortality rates and hospital admissions due to paracetamol poisoning declined. However, the contribution of the 1998 regulations to this decline is not clear. Paracetamol poisoning continues to be an important public health issue in England and Wales and represents significant workload for the NHS in England.

Weight Discrimination and Risk of Mortality

PubMed Central

Sutin, Angelina R.; Stephan, Yannick; Terracciano, Antonio

2015-01-01

Discrimination based on weight is a stressful social experience linked to declines in physical and mental health. We examine whether this harmful association extends to risk of mortality. Participants in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS; N=13,692) and the Midlife in the United States Study (MIDUS; N=5,079) reported on discriminatory experiences and attributed those experiences to personal characteristics, including weight. Weight discrimination was associated with a nearly 60% increased mortality risk in both HRS (HR=1.57, 95% CI=1.34-1.84) and MIDUS (HR=1.59, 95% CI=1.09-2.31) that was not accounted for by common physical and psychological risk factors. The association between weight discrimination and mortality was generally stronger than for other attributions for discrimination. In addition to poor health outcomes, weight discrimination may shorten life expectancy. PMID:26420442

Cardiovascular mortality sex differentials in selected East Asian and Western populations.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiaying; Booth, Heather; Dear, Keith; Tu, Edward Jow-Ching

2016-10-01

Explaining patterns in the sex ratio (male/female) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality would improve understanding of mortality transitions under modernisation. Little research has examined secular trends in this ratio across populations, taking age and cohort into account. We examine cohort effects in the ratios of CVD mortality (including ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease) among 4 East Asian populations that vary in the timing of their modernisation, and assess the effect of smoking on these patterns in comparison with Western populations. The sequential method for log-linear models is applied to analyse age, period and cohort effects for sex ratios. Age and cohort effects are fitted first, with population as offset; period effects are fitted in a second model using the fitted values from the first model as the offset. Lung cancer mortality serves as a proxy for smoking. Increases in sex ratios of CVD mortality began in earlier cohorts in Western than in East Asian populations. Once begun, increases were more rapid in East Asia. The cohort effect for the sex ratio of CVD mortality differs from that for lung cancer mortality. Trends in sex ratios of CVD mortality by cohort are similar before and after adjustment for lung cancer mortality in East Asia; the increasing trend across 1900-1945 cohorts is maintained in Western populations after adjustment. The sex ratio of CVD mortality has increased across successive cohorts living in increasingly modernised environments. There is scant evidence that this increase is attributable to changing sex-specific rates of smoking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007.

PubMed

Bruthans, Jan; Cífková, Renata; Lánská, Věra; O'Flaherty, Martin; Critchley, Julia A; Holub, Jiří; Janský, Petr; Zvárová, Jana; Capewell, Simon

2014-07-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined substantially in the Czech Republic over the last two decades. The purpose of this study was to determine what proportion of this CHD mortality decline could be associated with temporal trends in major CHD risk factors and what proportion with advances in medical and surgical treatments. The validated IMPACT mortality model was used to combine and analyse data on uptake and effectiveness of CHD management and risk factor trends in the Czech Republic in adults aged 25-74 years between 1985 and 2007. The main sources were official statistics, national quality of care registries, published trials and meta-analyses, and the Czech MONICA and Czech post-MONICA studies. Between 1985 and 2007, age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Czech Republic decreased by 66.2% in men and 65.4% in women in the age group 25-74 years, representing 12,080 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. Changes in CHD risk factors explained approximately 52% of the total mortality decrease, and improvements in medical treatments approximately 43%. Increases in body mass index and in diabetes prevalence had a negative impact, increasing CHD mortality by approximately 1% and 5%, respectively. More than half of the very substantial fall in CHD mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007 was attributable to reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors. Improvement in treatments accounted for approximately 43% of the total mortality decrease. These findings emphasize the value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatment. © The European Society of Cardiology 2012.

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

PubMed Central

Wang, Haidong; Liddell, Chelsea A; Coates, Matthew M; Mooney, Meghan D; Levitz, Carly E; Schumacher, Austin E; Apfel, Henry; Iannarone, Marissa; Phillips, Bryan; Lofgren, Katherine T; Sandar, Logan; Dorrington, Rob E; Rakovac, Ivo; Jacobs, Troy A; Liang, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Yanping; Liu, Shiwei; Li, Yichong; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Ademi, Zanfina; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Allen, Peter J; AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz; Alvarez, Elena; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ammar, Walid; Anwari, Palwasha; Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu; Asad, Majed Masoud; Assadi, Reza; Banerjee, Amitava; Basu, Sanjay; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Blore, Jed; Basara, Berrak Bora; Boufous, Soufiane; Breitborde, Nicholas; Bruce, Nigel G; Bui, Linh Ngoc; Carapetis, Jonathan R; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán; Cavlin, Alanur; Che, Xuan; Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Cirillo, Massimo; Leite, Iuri da Costa; Courville, Karen J; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Davis, Adrian; Dayama, Anand; Deribe, Kebede; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dilmen, Uğur; Ding, Eric L; Edmond, Karen M; Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fijabi, Daniel Obadare; Foigt, Nataliya; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Garcia, Ana C; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gona, Philimon; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Green, Mark A; Greenwell, Karen Fern; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Gupta, Rahul; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hammami, Mouhanad; Harb, Hilda L; Hay, Simon; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Idrisov, Bulat T; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kabagambe, Edmond Kato; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Kereselidze, Maia; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khang, Young-Ho; Kim, Daniel; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, Soewarta; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Kumar, G Anil; Kumar, Kaushalendra; Kumar, Ravi B; Lai, Taavi; Lan, Qing; Larsson, Anders; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leinsalu, Mall; Lim, Stephen S; Lipshultz, Steven E; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan Anthony; Ma, Stefan; Mahdi, Abbas Ali; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McGrath, John J; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mokdad, Ali H; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Moschandreas, Joanna; Msemburi, William T; Mueller, Ulrich O; Muszynska, Magdalena M; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naidoo, Kovin S; Narayan, KM Venkat; Nejjari, Chakib; Ng, Marie; Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Omer, Saad B; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina; Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van; Pope, Dan; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Rahman, Sajjad UR; Rana, Saleem M; Reilly, Robert Quentin; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Rushton, Lesley; Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya; Salomon, Joshua; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Santos, Itamar S; Sawhney, Monika; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Nazarova, Marina Shakh; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin Hyun; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soshnikov, Sergey S; Sposato, Luciano A; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Tabb, Karen M; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Teixeira, Carolina Maria; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Thomson, Alan J; Lyman, Andrew L Thorne; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Uwaliraye, Parfait; Uzun, Selen Begüm; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Vos, Theo; Waller, Stephen; Wan, Xia; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Westerman, Ronny; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Yang, Yang C; Yentur, Gokalp Kadri; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa; Yu, Chuanhua; Jin, Kim Yun; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zhu, Shankuan; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L

2014-01-01

Summary Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from −6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only −1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development. PMID:24797572

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

PubMed

Wang, Haidong; Liddell, Chelsea A; Coates, Matthew M; Mooney, Meghan D; Levitz, Carly E; Schumacher, Austin E; Apfel, Henry; Iannarone, Marissa; Phillips, Bryan; Lofgren, Katherine T; Sandar, Logan; Dorrington, Rob E; Rakovac, Ivo; Jacobs, Troy A; Liang, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Yanping; Liu, Shiwei; Li, Yichong; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Ademi, Zanfina; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Allen, Peter J; AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz; Alvarez, Elena; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ammar, Walid; Anwari, Palwasha; Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu; Asad, Majed Masoud; Assadi, Reza; Banerjee, Amitava; Basu, Sanjay; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Blore, Jed D; Basara, Berrak Bora; Boufous, Soufiane; Breitborde, Nicholas; Bruce, Nigel G; Bui, Linh Ngoc; Carapetis, Jonathan R; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David O; Caso, Valeria; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán; Cavlin, Alanur; Che, Xuan; Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christophi, Costas A; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Cirillo, Massimo; da Costa Leite, Iuri; Courville, Karen J; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Davis, Adrian; Dayama, Anand; Deribe, Kebede; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dherani, Mukesh K; Dilmen, Uğur; Ding, Eric L; Edmond, Karen M; Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fijabi, Daniel Obadare; Foigt, Nataliya; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Garcia, Ana C; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Goginashvili, Ketevan; Gona, Philimon; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Green, Mark A; Greenwell, Karen Fern; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Gupta, Rahul; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hammami, Mouhanad; Harb, Hilda L; Hay, Simon; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian G; Idrisov, Bulat T; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kabagambe, Edmond Kato; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Kereselidze, Maia; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khang, Young-Ho; Kim, Daniel; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, Soewarta; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Kumar, G Anil; Kumar, Kaushalendra; Kumar, Ravi B; Lai, Taavi; Lan, Qing; Larsson, Anders; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leinsalu, Mall; Lim, Stephen S; Lipshultz, Steven E; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan Anthony; Ma, Stefan; Mahdi, Abbas Ali; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq; Mazorodze, Tasara T; McGrath, John J; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A; Meretoja, Atte; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mokdad, Ali H; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Moschandreas, Joanna; Msemburi, William T; Mueller, Ulrich O; Muszynska, Magdalena M; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naidoo, Kovin S; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nejjari, Chakib; Ng, Marie; de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Omer, Saad B; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina; Pillay-van Wyk, Victoria; Pope, Dan; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Rahman, Sajjad U R; Rana, Saleem M; Reilly, Robert Quentin; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Rushton, Lesley; Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya; Salomon, Joshua A; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Santos, Itamar S; Sawhney, Monika; Schmidt, Jürgen C; Shakh-Nazarova, Marina; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin Hyun; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soshnikov, Sergey S; Sposato, Luciano A; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Tabb, Karen M; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Teixeira, Carolina Maria; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Thomson, Alan J; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Uwaliraye, Parfait; Uzun, Selen Begüm; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Waller, Stephen; Wan, Xia; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Westerman, Ronny; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Yang, Yang C; Yentur, Gokalp Kadri; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa; Yu, Chuanhua; Jin, Kim Yun; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa; Zhu, Shankuan; Vos, Theo; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L

2014-09-13

Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tree mortality in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, Arizona, USA

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey; Scott C. Vojta

2011-01-01

We monitored tree mortality in northern Arizona (USA) mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws) forests from 1997 to 2007, a period of severe drought in this area. Mortality was pervasive, occurring on 100 and 98% of 53 mixed-conifer and 60 ponderosa pine plots (1-ha each), respectively. Most mortality was attributable to a suite of forest...

Increased mortality attributed to Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cucunubá, Zulma M; Okuwoga, Omolade; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Nouvellet, Pierre

2016-01-27

The clinical outcomes associated with Chagas disease remain poorly understood. In addition to the burden of morbidity, the burden of mortality due to Trypanosoma cruzi infection can be substantial, yet its quantification has eluded rigorous scrutiny. This is partly due to considerable heterogeneity between studies, which can influence the resulting estimates. There is a pressing need for accurate estimates of mortality due to Chagas disease that can be used to improve mathematical modelling, burden of disease evaluations, and cost-effectiveness studies. A systematic literature review was conducted to select observational studies comparing mortality in populations with and without a diagnosis of Chagas disease using the PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and LILACS databases, without restrictions on language or date of publication. The primary outcome of interest was mortality (as all-cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, heart transplant or cardiovascular deaths). Data were analysed using a random-effects model to obtain the relative risk (RR) of mortality, the attributable risk percent (ARP), and the annual mortality rates (AMR). The statistic I(2) (proportion of variance in the meta-analysis due to study heterogeneity) was calculated. Sensitivity analyses and publication bias test were also conducted. Twenty five studies were selected for quantitative analysis, providing data on 10,638 patients, 53,346 patient-years of follow-up, and 2739 events. Pooled estimates revealed that Chagas disease patients have significantly higher AMR compared with non-Chagas disease patients (0.18 versus 0.10; RR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.49-2.03). Substantial heterogeneity was found among studies (I(2) = 67.3%). The ARP above background mortality was 42.5%. Through a sub-analysis patients were classified by clinical group (severe, moderate, asymptomatic). While RR did not differ significantly between clinical groups, important differences in AMR were found: AMR = 0.43 in Chagas vs. 0.29 in non-Chagas patients (RR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.21-1.62) in the severe group; AMR = 0.16 (Chagas) vs. 0.08 (non-Chagas) (RR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.52-2.91) in the moderate group, and AMR = 0.02 vs. 0.01 (RR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.14-1.77) in the asymptomatic group. Meta-regression showed no evidence of study-level covariates on the effect size. Publication bias was not statistically significant (Egger's test p=0.08). The results indicate a statistically significant excess of mortality due to Chagas disease that is shared among both symptomatic and asymptomatic populations.

Manatee mortality in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mignucci-Giannoni, A. A.; Montoya-Ospina, R. A.; Jimenez-Marrero, N. M.; Rodriguez-Lopez, M.; Williams, E.H.; Bonde, R.K.

2000-01-01

The most pressing problem in the effective management of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) in Puerto Rico is mortality due to human activities. We assessed 90 cases of manatee strandings in Puerto Rico based on historical data and a coordinated carcass salvage effort from 1990 through 1995. We determined patterns of mortality, including type of event, condition of carcasses, spatial and temporal distribution, gender, size/age class, and the cause of death. The spatial distribution of stranding events was not uniform, with the north, northeast, and south coasts having the highest numbers. Six clusters representing the highest incidence included the areas of Fajardo and Ceiba, Bahia de Jobos, Toa Baja, Guayanilla, Cabo Rojo, and Rio Grande to Luquillo. The number of reported cases has increased at an average rate of 9.6%/yr since 1990. The seasonality of stranding events showed a bimodal pattern, from February through April and in August and September. Most identified causes of death were due to human interaction, especially captures and watercraft collisions. Natural causes usually involved dependent calves. From 1990 through 1995, most deaths were attributed to watercraft collisions. A reduction in anthropogenic mortality of this endangered species can be accomplished only through education and a proactive management and conservation plan that includes law enforcement, mortality assessment, scientific research, rescue and rehabilitation, and inter- and intraagency cooperation.

A Novel Indicator of Life-Course Smoking Prevalence in the United States Combining Popularity, Duration, Quantity, and Quality of Smoking

PubMed Central

Lillard, Dean R.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To develop a smoking indicator that combines the popularity and duration of smoking and the quantity and quality of consumed cigarettes, factors that vary dramatically over time and across generations. Methods. We used retrospective reports on smoking behavior and a time series of cigarette tar yields to standardize nationally representative life-course smoking prevalence rates of 11 generations of US men and women, spanning 120 years. For each generation and gender, we related the standardized data with the corresponding rates of smoking-attributable mortality. Results. Our indicator suggests that US cigarette consumption spread, peaked, and contracted faster than commonly perceived; predicts a significantly stronger smoking–mortality correlation than unadjusted smoking prevalence; and reveals the emergence of a delay (by up to 8 years) in premature death from smoking that is consistent with increasing population access to effective treatments. In fact, we show that, among recent cohorts, smoking health-risk exposure is at a historic low and will account for less than 5% of deaths. Conclusions. Relative to unstandardized measures, our novel, standardized indicator of smoking prevalence describes a different history of smoking diffusion in the United States, and more strongly predicts later-life mortality. PMID:27077340

Air Embolism: Diagnosis, Clinical Management and Outcomes

PubMed Central

McCarthy, Colin J.; Behravesh, Sasan; Naidu, Sailendra G.; Oklu, Rahmi

2017-01-01

Air embolism is a rare but potentially fatal complication of surgical procedures. Rapid recognition and intervention is critical for reducing morbidity and mortality. We retrospectively characterized our experience with air embolism during medical procedures at a tertiary medical center. Electronic medical records were searched for all cases of air embolism over a 25-year period; relevant medical and imaging records were reviewed. Sixty-seven air embolism cases were identified; the mean age was 59 years (range, 3–89 years). Ninety-four percent occurred in-hospital, of which 77.8% were during an operation/invasive procedure. Vascular access-related procedures (33%) were the most commonly associated with air embolism. Clinical signs and symptoms were related to the location the air embolus; 36 cases to the right heart/pulmonary artery, 21 to the cerebrum, and 10 were attributed to patent foramen ovale (PFO). Twenty-one percent of patients underwent hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT), 7.5% aspiration of the air, and 63% had no sequelae. Mortality rate was 21%; 69% died within 48 hours. Thirteen patients had immediate cardiac arrest where mortality rate was 53.8%, compared to 13.5% (p = 0.0035) in those without. Air emboli were mainly iatrogenic, primarily associated with endovascular procedures. High clinical suspicion and early treatment are critical for survival. PMID:28106717

Coronary heart disease mortality among Seventh-Day Adventists with differing dietary habits: a preliminary report.

PubMed

Phillips, R L; Lemon, F R; Beeson, W L; Kuzma, J W

1978-10-01

Seventh-Day Adventists (SDAs) are a conservative religious denomination who abstain from tobacco and alcohol; approximately one-half follow a lacto-ovo-vegetarian diet. In this 6-year prospective study of 24,044 California SDAs age 35 and over, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates for ages 35 to 64 and 65+ are 28% and 50% respectively, of the rates for the same age groups of the total California population. This reduced risk of CHD mortality among SDAs is partially due to abstinence from smoking; however, at least half the low risk among SDAs is likely attributable to other characteristics of the SDA lifestyle. The risk of fatal CHD among nonvegetarian SDA males, ages 35 to 64, is three times greater than vegetarian SDA males of comparable age (P less than 0.01), suggesting that the SDA diet may account for a large share of their low risk. This differential was much smaller for older SDA males and SDA females. Although the differential in risk of fatal CHD for male nonvegetarians versus vegetarians may be partially accounted for by other CHD risk factors, which are more frequent among nonvegetarians, a significant differential persists after adjustment for each of six other CHD risk factors.

Best predictors for postfire mortality of ponderosa pine trees in the Intermountain West

Treesearch

Carolyn Hull Sieg; Joel D. McMillin; James F. Fowler; Kurt K. Allen; Jose F. Negron; Linda L. Wadleigh; John A. Anhold; Ken E. Gibson

2006-01-01

Numerous wildfires in recent years have highlighted managers' needs for reliable tools to predict postfire mortality of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) trees. General applicability of existing mortality models is uncertain, as researchers have used different sets of variables. We quantified tree attributes, crown and bole fire...

Infant mortality in South Africa - distribution, associations and policy implications, 2007: an ecological spatial analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Many sub-Saharan countries are confronted with persistently high levels of infant mortality because of the impact of a range of biological and social determinants. In particular, infant mortality has increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The geographic distribution of health problems and their relationship to potential risk factors can be invaluable for cost effective intervention planning. The objective of this paper is to determine and map the spatial nature of infant mortality in South Africa at a sub district level in order to inform policy intervention. In particular, the paper identifies and maps high risk clusters of infant mortality, as well as examines the impact of a range of determinants on infant mortality. A Bayesian approach is used to quantify the spatial risk of infant mortality, as well as significant associations (given spatial correlation between neighbouring areas) between infant mortality and a range of determinants. The most attributable determinants in each sub-district are calculated based on a combination of prevalence and model risk factor coefficient estimates. This integrated small area approach can be adapted and applied in other high burden settings to assist intervention planning and targeting. Results Infant mortality remains high in South Africa with seemingly little reduction since previous estimates in the early 2000's. Results showed marked geographical differences in infant mortality risk between provinces as well as within provinces as well as significantly higher risk in specific sub-districts and provinces. A number of determinants were found to have a significant adverse influence on infant mortality at the sub-district level. Following multivariable adjustment increasing maternal mortality, antenatal HIV prevalence, previous sibling mortality and male infant gender remained significantly associated with increased infant mortality risk. Of these antenatal HIV sero-prevalence, previous sibling mortality and maternal mortality were found to be the most attributable respectively. Conclusions This study demonstrates the usefulness of advanced spatial analysis to both quantify excess infant mortality risk at the lowest administrative unit, as well as the use of Bayesian modelling to quantify determinant significance given spatial correlation. The "novel" integration of determinant prevalence at the sub-district and coefficient estimates to estimate attributable fractions further elucidates the "high impact" factors in particular areas and has considerable potential to be applied in other locations. The usefulness of the paper, therefore, not only suggests where to intervene geographically, but also what specific interventions policy makers should prioritize in order to reduce the infant mortality burden in specific administration areas. PMID:22093084

Cardiovascular, respiratory, and total mortality attributed to PM2.5 in Mashhad, Iran.

PubMed

Bonyadi, Ziaeddin; Ehrampoush, Mohammad Hasan; Ghaneian, Mohammad Taghi; Mokhtari, Mehdi; Sadeghi, Abbas

2016-10-01

Poor air quality is one of the most important environmental problems in many large cities of the world, which can cause a wide range of acute and chronic health effects, including partial physiological disorders and cardiac death due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. According to the latest edition of the national standard for air quality, maximum contamination level is 15 μg/m(3) per year and 35 μg/m(3) per day. The aim of this study was to evaluate cardiovascular, respiratory, and total mortality attributed to PM2.5 in the city of Mashhad during 2013. To this end, the Air Q model was used to assess health impacts of PM2.5 and human exposure to it. In this model, the attributable proportion of health outcome, annual number of excess cases of mortality for all causes, and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were estimated. The results showed that the number of excess cases of mortality for all causes and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases attributable to PM2.5 was 32, 263, and 332 μg/m(3), respectively. Moreover, the annual average of PM2.5 in Mashhad was obtained to be 37.85 μg/m(3). This study demonstrated that a high percentage of mortality resulting from this pollutant could be due to the high average concentration of PM2.5 in the city during 2013. In this case, using the particle control methods, such as optimal use of fuel, management of air quality in urban areas, technical inspection of vehicles, faster development of public transport, and use of industrial technology can be effective in reducing air pollution in cities and turning existing situations into preferred ones.

Ultrasonography-driven combination antibiotic therapy with tigecycline significantly increases survival among patients with neutropenic enterocolitis following cytarabine-containing chemotherapy for the remission induction of acute myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Pugliese, Novella; Salvatore, Paola; Iula, Dora Vita; Catania, Maria Rosaria; Chiurazzi, Federico; Della Pepa, Roberta; Cerchione, Claudio; Raimondo, Marta; Giordano, Claudia; Simeone, Luigia; Caruso, Simona; Pane, Fabrizio; Picardi, Marco

2017-07-01

Neutropenic enterocolitis (NEC) is an abdominal infection reported primarily in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) following chemotherapy, especially cytarabine, a notable efficacious cytotoxic agent for AML remission. Specific data regarding the impact of different cytarabine schedules and/or antibacterial regimens for NEC are sparse. The aim of the study was to identify the predictors of outcome within 30 days of NEC onset. NEC episodes were retrospectively pinpointed among 440 patients with newly diagnosed AML hospitalized in our Institution, over a 10-year period, for receiving chemotherapy protocols with 100-6000 mg/m 2 daily of cytarabine. Two subgroups, survivors versus nonsurvivors, were compared by using logistic regression analysis. NEC was documented in 100 of 420 (23.8%) analyzed patients: 42.5% had received high-dose cytarabine, whereas 19% and 15% intermediate-dose and standard-dose cytarabine, respectively (P < 0.001). The 30-day NEC attributable mortality rate was 23%. In univariate analysis, antileukemic protocols containing robust dosages of cytarabine were significantly associated with high mortality (P < 0.001); whereas, standard-dose cytarabine and prompt initiation (at the ultrasonographic appearance of intestinal mural thickening) of NEC therapy with antibiotic combinations including tigecycline were significantly associated with low mortality. In multivariate analysis, high-dose cytarabine-containing chemotherapy was the independent predictor of poor outcome (odds ratio [OR]: 0.109; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.032-0.364; P < 0.001), whereas ultrasonography-driven NEC therapy with antibiotic regimens including tigecycline was associated with a favorable outcome (OR: 13.161; 95% CI: 1.587-109.17; P = 0.017). Chemotherapy schedules with robust dosages of cytarabine for AML remission are associated with a high rate of NEC incidence and attributable. Vigorous antibacterial therapy, triggered off pathologic ultrasonographic findings, with drug combinations which have broad antimicrobial coverage and good gut penetration, specifically those also including tigecycline, may be effective in improving 30-day survival rate after NEC onset. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The health benefits of secondary education in adolescents and young adults: An international analysis in 186 low-, middle- and high-income countries from 1990 to 2013.

PubMed

Viner, Russell M; Hargreaves, Dougal S; Ward, Joseph; Bonell, Chris; Mokdad, Ali H; Patton, George

2017-12-01

The health benefits of secondary education have been little studied. We undertook country-level longitudinal analyses of the impact of lengthening secondary education on health outcomes amongst 15-24 year olds. Exposures: average length of secondary and primary education from 1980 to 2013.Data/Outcomes: Country level adolescent fertility rate (AFR), HIV prevalence and mortality rate from 1989/90 to 2013 across 186 low-, middle- and high-income countries.Analysis: Longitudinal mixed effects models, entering secondary and primary education together, adjusted for time varying GDP and country income status. Longitudinal structural marginal models using inverse probability weighting (IPW) to take account of time varying confounding by primary education and GDP. Counterfactual scenarios of no change in secondary education since 1980/1990 were estimated from model coefficients for each outcome. Each additional year of secondary education decreased AFR by 8.4% in mixed effects models and 14.6% in IPW models independent of primary education and GDP. Counterfactual analyses showed the proportion of the reduction in adolescent fertility rate over the study period independently attributable to secondary education was 28% in low income countries. Each additional year of secondary education reduced mortality by 16.9% for 15-19 year and 14.8% for 20-24 year old young women and 11.4% for 15-19 year and 8.8% for 20-24 year old young men. Counterfactual scenarios suggested 12% and 23% of the mortality reduction for 15-19 and 20-24 year old young men was attributable to secondary education in low income countries. Each additional year of secondary education was associated with a 24.5% and 43.1% reduction in HIV prevalence amongst young men and women. The health benefits associated with secondary education were greater than those of primary education and were greatest amongst young women and those from low income countries. Secondary education has the potential to be a social vaccine across many outcomes in low and middle income countries.

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology.

PubMed

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-06-30

Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

Age-related differences in the effect of psychological distress on mortality: Type D personality in younger versus older patients with cardiac arrhythmias.

PubMed

Denollet, Johan; Tekle, Fetene B; van der Voort, Pepijn H; Alings, Marco; van den Broek, Krista C

2013-01-01

Mixed findings in biobehavioral research on heart disease may partly be attributed to age-related differences in the prognostic value of psychological distress. This study sought to test the hypothesis that Type D (distressed) personality contributes to an increased mortality risk following implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) treatment in younger patients but not in older patients. The Type D Scale (DS14) was used to assess general psychological distress in 455 younger (≤70 y, m = 59.1) and 134 older (>70 y, m = 74.3) ICD patients. End points were all-cause mortality and cardiac death after a median follow-up of 3.2 years. Older patients had more advanced heart failure and a higher mortality rate (n = 34/25%) than younger patients (n = 60/13%), P = 0.001. Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), but not Type D personality, was associated with increased mortality in older patients. Among younger patients, however, Type D personality was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio = 1.91 (95% CI 1.09-3.34) and 2.26 (95% CI 1.16-4.41) for all-cause and cardiac mortality; other predictors were increasing age, CRT, appropriate shocks, ACE-inhibitors, and smoking. Type D personality was independently associated with all-cause and cardiac mortality in younger ICD patients but not in older patients. Cardiovascular research needs to further explore age-related differences in psychosocial risk.

Adjusting for reverse causation to estimate the effect of obesity on mortality after incident heart failure in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

PubMed

Shakiba, Maryam; Soori, Hamid; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Nazari, Seyed Saeed Hashemi; Salimi, Yahya

2016-01-01

The lower mortality rate of obese patients with heart failure (HF) has been partly attributed to reverse causation bias due to weight loss caused by disease. Using data about weight both before and after HF, this study aimed to adjust for reverse causation and examine the association of obesity both before and after HF with mortality. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, 308 patients with data available from before and after the incidence of HF were included. Pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity were defined based on body mass index measurements at least three months before and after incident HF. The associations of pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity and weight change with survival after HF were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model. Pre-morbid obesity was associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 2.49) but post-morbid obesity was associated with increased survival (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.88). Adjusting for weight change due to disease as a confounder of the obesity-mortality relationship resulted in the absence of any significant associations between post-morbid obesity and mortality. This study demonstrated that controlling for reverse causality by adjusting for the confounder of weight change may remove or reverse the protective effect of obesity on mortality among patients with incident HF.

Epidemiological Trends in Colorectal Cancer in China: An Ecological Study.

PubMed

Zhu, Jinzhou; Tan, Zhengqi; Hollis-Hansen, Kelseanna; Zhang, Yong; Yu, Chaohui; Li, Youming

2017-01-01

Due to the changes in lifestyle and dietary behaviors, the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) has been rapidly increasing in China. This study is to present the trends of CRC in China over the past decade. It used a series of nationally representative data, including the National Central Cancer Registry of China, the GLOBOCAN project and the Global Burden of Disease. The age-standardized rate of CRC incidence increased from 12.8 in 2003 to 16.8 per 100,000 in 2011, while the mortality rose from 5.9 to 7.8 per 100,000. The age group most affected by incident CRC cases were those aged 60-74 years old, whereas CRC death was most associated with those >74 years. Furthermore, the east coast of China presented a higher mortality rate (>15 and 10-14.9 per 100,000 in men and women) than central and west China (5-14.9 and 5-9.9 per 100,000). Compared with other countries worldwide, China indicated lower rates of incidence (14.2 per 100,000), mortality (7.4 per 100,000), and 5-year prevalence (52.7 per 100,000) than most developed countries. However, China had a higher case-fatality ratio (14.0 %) and mortality/incidence ratio (52.1 %). Lastly, disability-adjusted life years attributed to CRC in China was 224.2 per 100,000. It presents a steady increase in CRC in China over the past decade. It also reveals the domestic diversity of age, gender, and geography and finds the differences between China and developed countries, which may yield insights for national programs and policies.

Survival of captive-reared Hispaniolan Parrots released in Parque Nacional del Este, Dominican Republic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collazo, J.A.; White, T.H.; Vilella, F.J.; Guerrero, S.A.

2003-01-01

We report first-year survival rates of 49 captive-reared Hispaniolan Parrots (Amazona ventralis) released in Parque Nacional del Este, Dominican Republic. Our goal was to learn about factors affecting postrelease survival. Specifically, we tested if survival was related to movements and whether modifying prerelease protocols influenced survival rates. We also estimated survival in the aftermath of Hurricane Georges (22 September 1998). Twenty-four parrots, fitted with radio-transmitters, were released between 14 September and 12 December 1997. Twenty-five more were released between 29 June and 16 September 1998. First-year survival rates were 30% in 1997 and 29% in 1998. Survival probability was related to bird mobility. In contrast to birds released in 1997, none of the 25 parrots released in 1998 suffered early postrelease mortality (i.e., 3-5 days after release). Two adjustments to prerelease protocols (increased exercise and reduced blood sampling) made in 1998 may have contributed to differences in mobility and survival between years. The reduction of early postrelease mortality in 1998 was encouraging, as was the prospect for higher first-year survival (e.g., 30% to 65%). Only one death was attributed to the immediate impact of the hurricane. Loss of foraging resources was likely a major contributor to ensuing mortality. Birds increased their mobility, presumably in search of food. Survival rates dropped 23% in only eight weeks posthurricane. This study underscores the value of standardized prerelease protocols, and of estimating survival and testing for factors that might influence it. Inferences from such tests will provide the best basis to make adjustments to a release program.

Fire-related deaths among Aboriginal people in British Columbia, 1991-2001.

PubMed

Gilbert, Mark; Dawar, Meenakshi; Armour, Rosemary

2006-01-01

Fire-related mortality rates are known to be higher in Aboriginal people in BC. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiology and context of fire-related deaths in this population. All death registrations attributable to fires in the province were identified by the B.C. Vital Statistics Agency (1991-2001). Age-specific death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated for Status Indians and other residents. Data from Coroner's reports from the B.C. Coroners' Service (1997-2001) were used to describe the context of Aboriginal fire-related deaths. The overall fire-related ASMR for Status Indians and other residents were 0.66 deaths and 0.07 deaths/10,000 population respectively. Annual ASMR for both populations were constant over the study period. ASDR were higher in every age category for Status Indians; children and seniors had higher rates in both populations. Twenty-seven Aboriginal fatalities (20 fires) were identified for the contextual analysis. Key findings were: 48% of the total sample had elevated blood alcohol levels; 30% of the fires were caused by lit cigarettes (majority of decedents were intoxicated); 15% of the fires were caused by electric heating sources; at least 34% of fires occurred in homes with absent or non-functional smoke alarms. Fire-related mortality among Aboriginal people in BC is a preventable public health concern. In this population, fire safety and prevention programs should consider improving the prevalence of functioning smoke alarms, promoting the safe use of heat sources, and decreasing smoking behaviours and the use of alcohol.

Maternal and child health in China.

PubMed Central

Hesketh, T.; Zhu, W. X.

1997-01-01

China has made great progress in improving the health of women and children over the past two generations. The success has been attributed to improved living standards, public health measures, and good access to health services. Although overall infant and maternal mortality rates are relatively low there are large differences in patterns of mortality between urban and rural areas. The Chinese have developed a hierarchical network of maternal and child health services, with each level taking a supervisory and teaching role for the level below it. Maternal and child health in China came to international attention in 1995 with the promulgation of the maternal and child health law. In China this was seen as a means of prioritising resources and improving the quality of services, but in the West it was widely described as a law on eugenics. PMID:9224139

Evidence and Implications of Mortality Associated with Acute Plasmodium vivax Malaria

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Vivax malaria threatens patients despite relatively low-grade parasitemias in peripheral blood. The tenet of death as a rare outcome, derived from antiquated and flawed clinical classifications, disregarded key clinical evidence, including (i) high rates of mortality in neurosyphilis patients treated with vivax malaria; (ii) significant mortality from zones of endemicity; and (iii) the physiological threat inherent in repeated, very severe paroxysms in any patient, healthy or otherwise. The very well-documented course of this infection, with the exception of parasitemia, carries all of the attributes of “perniciousness” historically linked to falciparum malaria, including severe disease and fatal outcomes. A systematic analysis of the parasite biomass in severely ill patients that includes blood, marrow, and spleen may ultimately explain this historic misunderstanding. Regardless of how this parasite is pernicious, recent data demonstrate that the infection comes with a significant burden of morbidity and associated mortality. The extraordinary burden of malaria is not heavily weighted upon any single continent by a single species of parasite—it is a complex problem for the entire endemic world, and both species are of fundamental importance. Humanity must rally substantial resources, intellect, and energy to counter this daunting but profound threat. PMID:23297258

World health inequality: convergence, divergence, and development.

PubMed

Clark, Rob

2011-02-01

Recent studies characterize the last half of the twentieth century as an era of cross-national health convergence, with some attributing welfare gains in the developing world to economic growth. In this study, I examine the extent to which welfare outcomes have actually converged and the extent to which economic development is responsible for the observed trends. Drawing from estimates covering 195 nations during the 1955-2005 period, I find that life expectancy averages converged during this time, but that infant mortality rates continuously diverged. I develop a narrative that implicates economic development in these contrasting trends, suggesting that health outcomes follow a "welfare Kuznets curve." Among poor countries, economic development improves life expectancy more than it reduces infant mortality, whereas the situation is reversed among wealthier nations. In this way, development has contributed to both convergence in life expectancy and divergence in infant mortality. Drawing from 674 observations across 163 countries during the 1980-2005 period, I find that the positive effect of GDP PC on life expectancy attenuates at higher levels of development, while the negative effect of GDP PC on infant mortality grows stronger. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Entomophaga maimaiga (Entomophthorales: Entomophthoraceae) on outbreak gypsy moth populations (Lepidoptera: Erebidae): the role of weather.

PubMed

Reilly, James R; Hajek, Ann E; Liebhold, Andrew M; Plymale, Ruth

2014-06-01

The fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga Humber, Shimazu, and Soper is prevalent in gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (L.)] populations throughout North America. To understand how weather-related variables influence gypsy moth-E. maimaiga interactions in the field, we measured fungal infection rates at 12 sites in central Pennsylvania over 3 yr, concurrently measuring rainfall, soil moisture, humidity, and temperature. Fungal mortality was assessed using both field-collected larvae and laboratory-reared larvae caged on the forest floor. We found significant positive effects of moisture-related variables (rainfall, soil moisture, and relative humidity) on mortality due to fungal infection in both data sets, and significant negative effects of temperature on the mortality of field-collected larvae. Lack of a clear temperature relationship with the mortality of caged larvae may be attributable to differential initiation of infection by resting spores and conidia or to microclimate effects. These relationships may be helpful in understanding how gypsy moth dynamics vary across space and time, and in forecasting how the gypsy moth and fungus will interact as they move into warmer or drier areas, or new weather conditions occur due to climate change.

Portrait of Candida Species Biofilm Regulatory Network Genes.

PubMed

Araújo, Daniela; Henriques, Mariana; Silva, Sónia

2017-01-01

Most cases of candidiasis have been attributed to Candida albicans, but Candida glabrata, Candida parapsilosis and Candida tropicalis, designated as non-C. albicans Candida (NCAC), have been identified as frequent human pathogens. Moreover, Candida biofilms are an escalating clinical problem associated with significant rates of mortality. Biofilms have distinct developmental phases, including adhesion/colonisation, maturation and dispersal, controlled by complex regulatory networks. This review discusses recent advances regarding Candida species biofilm regulatory network genes, which are key components for candidiasis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Medical complications of anorexia nervosa and their treatments: an update on some critical aspects.

PubMed

Brown, Carrie; Mehler, Philip S

2015-12-01

Anorexia nervosa has the highest mortality rate of any psychiatric disorder. Many of the deaths are attributable to medical complications which arise as the malnutrition and weight loss worsens. Every body system may be adversely affected by anorexia nervosa. Yet, remarkably, most of the medical complications of anorexia nervosa are treatable and reversible with optimal medical care, as part of a multidisciplinary team who are often involved in the care of these patients. Herein, we will describe the medical complications of anorexia nervosa and their treatments.

Variations in Mortality in Children Admitted with Pneumonia to Kenyan Hospitals

PubMed Central

Ayieko, Philip; Okiro, Emelda A.; Edwards, Tansy; Nyamai, Rachel; English, Mike

2012-01-01

Background The existing case fatality estimates of inpatient childhood pneumonia in developing countries are largely from periods preceding routine use of conjugate vaccines for infant immunization and such primary studies rarely explore hospital variations in mortality. We analysed case fatality rates of children admitted to nine Kenyan hospitals with pneumonia during the era of routine infant immunization with Hib conjugate vaccine to determine if significant variations exist between hospitals. Methods Pneumonia admissions and outcomes in paediatric wards are described using data collected over two time periods: a one-year period (2007–2008) in nine hospitals, and data from a 9.25-year period (1999-March 2008) in one of the participating hospitals. Hospital case fatality rates for inpatient pneumonia during 2007 to 2008 were modeled using a fixed effect binomial regression model with a logit link. Using an interrupted time series design, data from one hospital were analysed for trends in pneumonia mortality during the period between 1997 and March 2008. Results Overall, 195 (5.9%) children admitted to all 9 hospitals with pneumonia from March 2007 to March 2008 died in hospital. After adjusting for child’s sex, comorbidity, and hospital effect, mortality was significantly associated with child’s age (p<0.001) and pneumonia severity (p<0.001). There was evidence of significant variations in mortality between hospitals (LR χ2 = 52.19; p<0.001). Pneumonia mortality remained stable in the periods before (trend −0.03, 95% CI −0.1 to 0.02) and after Hib introduction (trend 0.04, 95% CI −0.04 to 0.11). Conclusions There are important variations in hospital-pneumonia case fatality in Kenya and these variations are not attributed to temporal changes. Such variations in mortality are not addressed by existing epidemiological models and need to be considered in allocating resources to improve child health. PMID:23139752

Cause of death and potentially avoidable deaths in Australian adults with intellectual disability using retrospective linked data

PubMed Central

Srasuebkul, Preeyaporn; Xu, Han; Howlett, Sophie

2017-01-01

Objectives To investigate mortality and its causes in adults over the age of 20 years with intellectual disability (ID). Design, setting and participants Retrospective population-based standardised mortality of the ID and Comparison cohorts. The ID cohort comprised 42 204 individuals who registered for disability services with ID as a primary or secondary diagnosis from 2005 to 2011 in New South Wales (NSW). The Comparison cohort was obtained from published deaths in NSW from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) from 2005 to 2011. Main outcome measures We measured and compared Age Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR), Comparative Mortality Figure (CMF), years of productive life lost (YPLL) and proportion of deaths with potentially avoidable causes in an ID cohort with an NSW general population cohort. Results There were 19 362 adults in the ID cohort which experienced 732 (4%) deaths at a median age of 54 years. Age Standardised Mortality Rates increased with age for both cohorts. Overall comparative mortality figure was 1.3, but was substantially higher for the 20–44 (4.0) and 45–64 (2.3) age groups. YPLL was 137/1000 people in the ID cohort and 49 in the comparison cohort. Cause of death in ID cohort was dominated by respiratory, circulatory, neoplasm and nervous system. After recoding deaths previously attributed to the aetiology of the disability, 38% of deaths in the ID cohort and 17% in the comparison cohort were potentially avoidable. Conclusions Adults with ID experience premature mortality and over-representation of potentially avoidable deaths. A national system of reporting of deaths in adults with ID is required. Inclusion in health policy and services development and in health promotion programmes is urgently required to address premature deaths and health inequalities for adults with ID. PMID:28179413

Cause of death and potentially avoidable deaths in Australian adults with intellectual disability using retrospective linked data.

PubMed

Trollor, Julian; Srasuebkul, Preeyaporn; Xu, Han; Howlett, Sophie

2017-02-07

To investigate mortality and its causes in adults over the age of 20 years with intellectual disability (ID). Retrospective population-based standardised mortality of the ID and Comparison cohorts. The ID cohort comprised 42 204 individuals who registered for disability services with ID as a primary or secondary diagnosis from 2005 to 2011 in New South Wales (NSW). The Comparison cohort was obtained from published deaths in NSW from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) from 2005 to 2011. We measured and compared Age Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR), Comparative Mortality Figure (CMF), years of productive life lost (YPLL) and proportion of deaths with potentially avoidable causes in an ID cohort with an NSW general population cohort. There were 19 362 adults in the ID cohort which experienced 732 (4%) deaths at a median age of 54 years. Age Standardised Mortality Rates increased with age for both cohorts. Overall comparative mortality figure was 1.3, but was substantially higher for the 20-44 (4.0) and 45-64 (2.3) age groups. YPLL was 137/1000 people in the ID cohort and 49 in the comparison cohort. Cause of death in ID cohort was dominated by respiratory, circulatory, neoplasm and nervous system. After recoding deaths previously attributed to the aetiology of the disability, 38% of deaths in the ID cohort and 17% in the comparison cohort were potentially avoidable. Adults with ID experience premature mortality and over-representation of potentially avoidable deaths. A national system of reporting of deaths in adults with ID is required. Inclusion in health policy and services development and in health promotion programmes is urgently required to address premature deaths and health inequalities for adults with ID. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Mortality in Mild Cognitive Impairment Diagnosed with DSM-5 Criteria and with Petersen's Criteria: A 17-Year Follow-Up in a Community Study.

PubMed

Santabárbara, Javier; Gracia-García, Patricia; Pírez, Guillermo; López-Antón, Raúl; De La Cámara, Concepcion; Ventura, Tirso; Pérez-Sastre, Marina; Lobo, Elena; Saz, Pedro; Marcos, Guillermo; Lobo, Antonio

2016-11-01

To explore the possibility that the mortality risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) as diagnosed using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) criteria (DSM-5-MCI) will be higher than using Petersen's criteria (P-MCI) and to report the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of mortality due to MCI. A representative community sample of 4,803 individuals aged 55 or more years was interviewed and then followed for 17 years. Standardized instruments were used in the assessment, including the Geriatric Mental State-AGECAT, and research psychiatrists diagnosed P-MCI and DSM-5-MCI cases following operationalized criteria. Mortality information was obtained from the official population registry. Kaplan-Meier age-adjusted survival curves were built for the MCI diagnostic groups, and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate the hazard ratio of death in participants with MCI relative to those without. We also estimated the PAF of mortality due to specific MCI diagnostic groups. Compared with noncases, the mortality rate ratio was approximately double in DSM-5-MCI individuals (2.3) than in P-MCI individuals (1.2). In the multivariate statistical analysis, a significant association between each diagnostic category and mortality was observed but was only maintained in the final model in DSM-5-MCI cases (hazard ratio: 1.24). The PAF of mortality due to MCI was approximately 1% in both MCI categories. The mortality risk in comparison with noncases was higher in DSM-5-MCI than in P-MCI. The PAF of mortality in DSM-5-MCI individuals was ~ 1% over a 17-year period. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Assessing the potential impact of increased participation in higher education on mortality: evidence from 21 European populations.

PubMed

Kulhánová, Ivana; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Judge, Ken; Looman, Caspar W N; Eikemo, Terje A; Bopp, Matthias; Deboosere, Patrick; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Rychtaříková, Jitka; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Menvielle, Gwenn; Mackenbach, Johan P

2014-09-01

Although higher education has been associated with lower mortality rates in many studies, the effect of potential improvements in educational distribution on future mortality levels is unknown. We therefore estimated the impact of projected increases in higher education on mortality in European populations. We used mortality and population data according to educational level from 21 European populations and developed counterfactual scenarios. The first scenario represented the improvement in the future distribution of educational attainment as expected on the basis of an assumption of cohort replacement. We estimated the effect of this counterfactual scenario on mortality with a 10-15-year time horizon among men and women aged 30-79 years using a specially developed tool based on population attributable fractions (PAF). We compared this with a second, upward levelling scenario in which everyone has obtained tertiary education. The reduction of mortality in the cohort replacement scenario ranged from 1.9 to 10.1% for men and from 1.7 to 9.0% for women. The reduction of mortality in the upward levelling scenario ranged from 22.0 to 57.0% for men and from 9.6 to 50.0% for women. The cohort replacement scenario was estimated to achieve only part (4-25% (men) and 10-31% (women)) of the potential mortality decrease seen in the upward levelling scenario. We concluded that the effect of on-going improvements in educational attainment on average mortality in the population differs across Europe, and can be substantial. Further investments in education may have important positive side-effects on population health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Colorectal Cancer Deaths Attributable to Nonuse of Screening in the United States

PubMed Central

Meester, Reinier G.S.; Doubeni, Chyke A.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Goede, S.L.; Levin, Theodore R.; Quinn, Virginia P.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Corley, Douglas A.; Zauber, Ann G.

2015-01-01

Purpose Screening is a major contributor to colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality reductions in the U.S., but is underutilized. We estimated the fraction of CRC deaths attributable to nonuse of screening to demonstrate the potential benefits from targeted interventions. Methods The established MISCAN-colon microsimulation model was used to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) in people aged ≥50 years. The model incorporates long-term patterns and effects of screening by age and type of screening test. PAF for 2010 was estimated using currently available data on screening uptake; PAF was also projected assuming constant future screening rates to incorporate lagged effects from past increases in screening uptake. We also computed PAF using Levin's formula to gauge how this simpler approach differs from the model-based approach. Results There were an estimated 51,500 CRC deaths in 2010, about 63% (N∼32,200) of which were attributable to non-screening. The PAF decreases slightly to 58% in 2020. Levin's approach yielded a considerably more conservative PAF of 46% (N∼23,600) for 2010. Conclusions The majority of current U.S. CRC deaths are attributable to non-screening. This underscores the potential benefits of increasing screening uptake in the population. Traditional methods of estimating PAF underestimated screening effects compared with model-based approaches. PMID:25721748

Green Space and Deaths Attributable to the Urban Heat Island Effect in Ho Chi Minh City.

PubMed

Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Doan Quang; Kusaka, Hiroyuki; Seposo, Xerxes T; Honda, Yasushi

2018-04-01

To quantify heat-related deaths in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, caused by the urban heat island (UHI) and explore factors that may alleviate the impact of UHIs. We estimated district-specific meteorological conditions from 2010 to 2013 using the dynamic downscaling model and calculated the attributable fraction and number of mortalities resulting from the total, extreme, and mild heat in each district. The difference in attributable fraction of total heat between the central and outer districts was classified as the attributable fraction resulting from the UHI. The association among attributable fraction, attributable number with a green space, population density, and budget revenue of each district was then explored. The temperature-mortality relationship between the central and outer areas was almost identical. The attributable fraction resulting from the UHI was 0.42%, which was contributed by the difference in temperature distribution between the 2 areas. Every 1-square-kilometer increase in green space per 1000 people can prevent 7.4 deaths caused by heat. Green space can alleviate the impacts of UHIs, although future studies conducting a heath economic evaluation of tree planting are warranted.

Green Space and Deaths Attributable to the Urban Heat Island Effect in Ho Chi Minh City

PubMed Central

Van, Doan Quang; Kusaka, Hiroyuki; Seposo, Xerxes T.; Honda, Yasushi

2018-01-01

Objectives. To quantify heat-related deaths in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, caused by the urban heat island (UHI) and explore factors that may alleviate the impact of UHIs. Methods. We estimated district-specific meteorological conditions from 2010 to 2013 using the dynamic downscaling model and calculated the attributable fraction and number of mortalities resulting from the total, extreme, and mild heat in each district. The difference in attributable fraction of total heat between the central and outer districts was classified as the attributable fraction resulting from the UHI. The association among attributable fraction, attributable number with a green space, population density, and budget revenue of each district was then explored. Results. The temperature–mortality relationship between the central and outer areas was almost identical. The attributable fraction resulting from the UHI was 0.42%, which was contributed by the difference in temperature distribution between the 2 areas. Every 1-square-kilometer increase in green space per 1000 people can prevent 7.4 deaths caused by heat. Conclusions. Green space can alleviate the impacts of UHIs, although future studies conducting a heath economic evaluation of tree planting are warranted. PMID:29072938

Evaluation of short-term mortality attributable to particulate matter pollution in Spain.

PubMed

Ortiz, Cristina; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocio; Díaz, Julio

2017-05-01

According to the WHO, 3 million deaths are attributable to air pollution due to particulate matter (PM) world-wide. However, there are no specific updated studies which calculate short-term PM-related cause specific mortality in Spain. The objective is to quantify the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) of daily mortality associated with PM 10 concentrations, registered in Spanish provinces and to calculate the number of PM-related deaths. We calculated daily mortality due to natural (ICD-10: A00 R99), circulatory (ICD-10: I00 I99) and respiratory causes (ICD-10: J00 J99) for each province across the period 2000-2009. Mean daily concentrations of PM 10 , NO 2 and O 3 was used. For the estimate of RRs and ARs, we used generalised linear models with a Poisson link. A meta-analysis was used to estimate RRs and ARs in the provinces with statically significant results. The overall RRs obtained for these provinces, corresponding to increases of 10 μ g/m 3 in PM 10 concentrations were 1.009 (95% CI: 1.006 1011) for natural, 1.026 (95% CI: 1.019 1033) for respiratory, and 1.009 (95% CI: 1.006 1012) for circulatory-cause mortality. This amounted to an annual overall total of 2683 deaths (95% CI: 852 4354) due to natural, 651 (95% CI: 359 1026) due to respiratory, and 556 (95% CI: 116 1012) due to circulatory causes, with 90% of this mortality lying below the WHO guideline values. This study provides an updated estimate of the effect had by this type of pollutant on causes of mortality, and constitutes an important basis for reinforcing public health measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Which postoperative complications matter most after bariatric surgery? Prioritizing quality improvement efforts to improve national outcomes.

PubMed

Daigle, Christopher R; Brethauer, Stacy A; Tu, Chao; Petrick, Anthony T; Morton, John M; Schauer, Philip R; Aminian, Ali

2018-05-01

National quality programs have been implemented to decrease the burden of adverse events on key outcomes in bariatric surgery. However, it is not well understood which complications have the most impact on patient health. To quantify the impact of specific bariatric surgery complications on key clinical outcomes. The Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) database. Data from patients who underwent primary bariatric procedures were retrieved from the MBSAQIP 2015 participant use file. The impact of 8 specific complications (bleeding, venous thromboembolism [VTE], leak, wound infection, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, myocardial infarction, and stroke) on 5 main 30-day outcomes (end-organ dysfunction, reoperation, intensive care unit admission, readmission, and mortality) was estimated using risk-adjusted population attributable fractions. The population attributable fraction is a calculated measure taking into account the prevalence and severity of each complication. The population attributable fractions represents the percentage reduction in a given outcome that would occur if that complication were eliminated. In total, 135,413 patients undergoing sleeve gastrectomy (67%), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (29%), adjustable gastric banding (3%), and duodenal switch (1%) were included. The most common complications were bleeding (.7%), wound infection (.5%), urinary tract infection (.3%), VTE (.3%), and leak (.2%). Bleeding and leak were the largest contributors to 3 of 5 examined outcomes. VTE had the greatest effect on readmission and mortality. This study quantifies the impact of specific complications on key surgical outcomes after bariatric surgery. Bleeding and leak were the complications with the largest overall effect on end-organ dysfunction, reoperation, and intensive care unit admission after bariatric surgery. Furthermore, our findings suggest that an initiative targeting reduction of post-bariatric surgery VTE has the greatest potential to reduce mortality and readmission rates. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the public economic consequences of introducing varenicline smoking cessation therapy in South Korea using a fiscal analytic framework.

PubMed

Connolly, Mark P; Baker, Christine L; Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos

2018-06-01

Smoking gives rise to many cross-sectorial public costs and benefits for government. Costs arise from increased healthcare spending and work-related social benefits, while smoking itself provides significant revenue for government from tobacco taxes. To better understand the public economic impact of smoking and smoking cessation therapies, this study developed a government perspective framework for assessing smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality and associated public costs. This framework includes changes in lifetime tax revenue and health costs, as well as changes in tobacco tax revenue, from fewer smokers. A modified generational accounting framework was developed to assess relationships between smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality and public economic consequences of smoking, including lifetime tax revenue gains/losses, government social transfers, and health spending. Based on the current prevalence of smoking in South Korean males, a cohort model was developed for smokers, former-smokers, and never-smokers. The model simulated the lifetime discounted fiscal transfers for different age cohorts in 5 year age bands, and the return on investment (ROI) from smoking cessation therapy. Former smokers are estimated to generate higher lifetime earnings and direct tax revenues and lower lifetime healthcare costs due to the reduction of smoking-attributable mortality and morbidity compared to smokers, even after accounting for reduced tobacco taxes paid. Based on the costs of public investments in varenicline, this study estimated a ROI from 1.4-1.7, depending on treatment age, with higher ROI in younger cohorts, with an average ROI of 1.6 for those aged less than 65. This analysis suggests that reductions in smoking can generate positive public economic benefits for government, even after accounting for lost tobacco tax revenues. The results described here are likely applicable to countries having similar underlying smoking prevalence, comparable taxation rates, and social benefit protection provided to individuals with smoking-related conditions.

Recent progress in bovine somatic cell nuclear transfer.

PubMed

Akagi, Satoshi; Geshi, Masaya; Nagai, Takashi

2013-03-01

Bovine somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) embryos can develop to the blastocyst stage at a rate similar to that of embryos produced by in vitro fertilization. However, the full-term developmental rate of SCNT embryos is very low, owing to the high embryonic and fetal losses after embryo transfer. In addition, increased birth weight and postnatal mortality are observed at high rates in cloned calves. The low efficiency of SCNT is probably attributed to incomplete reprogramming of the donor nucleus and most of the developmental problems of clones are thought to be caused by epigenetic defects. Applications of SCNT will depend on improvement in the efficiency of production of healthy cloned calves. In this review, we discuss problems and recent progress in bovine SCNT. © 2013 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Little field evidence of direct acute and short-term effects of current pesticides on the grey partridge.

PubMed

Millot, Florian; Berny, Philippe; Decors, Anouk; Bro, Elisabeth

2015-07-01

Direct lethal and sublethal effects of pesticides on farmland birds' populations are recurring questions and largely debated. In this context, we conducted an innovative study combining radiotelemetry, farmer surveys, residue analyses on carcasses and modelling to assess the unintentional effects of pesticides on terrestrial birds. We chose the grey partridge Perdix perdix as a case study because this typical bird of European cereal ecosystems is highly exposed to pesticides. In this paper we focused on acute and short-term impacts of pesticides on adult mortality during spring and summer in a one-substance approach (multiple exposure were not studied here) but for a large variety of active substances (a.s.) actually used in cultivated farmland of Northern France. The fate and the location of 529 partridges were monitored twice a day from early March to late August 2010 and 2011 on 12 sites (14,500 ha). Their daily potential exposure to 183 a.s. was determined by overlapping birds' habitat use and daily pesticide application data. Based on this procedure, we calculated mortality rates within 10 days following a potential exposure for 157 different a.s.. 5 a.s. were associated with a "10-day mortality rate" higher than 10% but a single one (thiacloprid) is reported to be highly toxic to birds. We recorded 261 mortalities among which 94 carcasses were in suitable condition for residue analyses. We detected at least one a.s in 39.4% of carcasses. However, only 2 mortality cases were attributed to poisoning (carbofuran). Furthermore, modelling results showed that these lethal pesticide-related poisonings decreased the population growth rate by less than 1%. In conclusion, we did not point out important direct acute and short-term effects of pesticides currently used by farmers during the breeding season on the grey partridge. This is discussed with regards to the complexity of potential effects in operational conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Racial Differences in the Diagnosis and Treatment of Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Pietro, Giuliano Di; Chornokur, Ganna; Kumar, Nagi B; Davis, Chemar; Park, Jong Y

2016-11-01

Disparities between African American and Caucasian men in prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis and treatment in the United States have been well established, with significant racial disparities documented at all stages of PCa management, from differences in the type of treatment offered to progression-free survival or death. These disparities appear to be complex in nature, involving biological determinants as well as socioeconomic and cultural aspects. We present a review of the literature on racial disparities in the diagnosis of PCa, treatment, survival, and genetic susceptibility. Significant differences were found among African Americans and whites in the incidence and mortality rates; namely, African Americans are diagnosed with PCa at younger ages than whites and usually with more advanced stages of the disease, and also undergo prostate-specific antigen testing less frequently. However, the determinants of the high rate of incidence and aggressiveness of PCa in African Americans remain unresolved. This pattern can be attributed to socioeconomic status, detection occurring at advanced stages of the disease, biological aggressiveness, family history, and differences in genetic susceptibility. Another risk factor for PCa is obesity. We found many discrepancies regarding treatment, including a tendency for more African American patients to be in watchful waiting than whites. Many factors are responsible for the higher incidence and mortality rates in African Americans. Better screening, improved access to health insurance and clinics, and more homogeneous forms of treatment will contribute to the reduction of disparities between African Americans and white men in PCa incidence and mortality.

Reducing the global burden of Preterm Birth through knowledge transfer and exchange: a research agenda for engaging effectively with policymakers.

PubMed

Yamey, Gavin; Horváth, Hacsi; Schmidt, Laura; Myers, Janet; Brindis, Claire D

2016-03-18

Preterm birth (PTB) is the world's leading cause of death in children under 5 years. In 2013, over one million out of six million child deaths were due to complications of PTB. The rate of decline in child death overall has far outpaced the rate of decline attributable to PTB. Three key reasons for this slow progress in reducing PTB mortality are: (a) the underlying etiology and biological mechanisms remain unknown, presenting a challenge to discovering ways to prevent and treat the condition; (ii) while there are several evidence-based interventions that can reduce the risk of PTB and associated infant mortality, the coverage rates of these interventions in low- and middle-income countries remain very low; and (c) the gap between knowledge and action on PTB--the "know-do gap"--has been a major obstacle to progress in scaling up the use of existing evidence-based child health interventions, including those to prevent and treat PTB.In this review, we focus on the know-do gap in PTB as it applies to policymakers. The evidence-based approaches to narrowing this gap have become known as knowledge transfer and exchange (KTE). In our paper, we propose a research agenda for promoting KTE with policymakers, with an ambitious but realistic goal of reducing the global burden of PTB. We hope that our proposed research agenda stimulates further debate and discussion on research priorities to soon bend the curve of PTB mortality.

Dissonant health transition in the states of Mexico, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

PubMed

Gómez-Dantés, Héctor; Fullman, Nancy; Lamadrid-Figueroa, Héctor; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Darney, Blair; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo; Rivera, Juan A; Barquera, Simon; González-Pier, Eduardo; Aburto-Soto, Tania; de Castro, Elga Filipa Amorin; Barrientos-Gutiérrez, Tonatiuh; Basto-Abreu, Ana C; Batis, Carolina; Borges, Guilherme; Campos-Nonato, Ismael; Campuzano-Rincón, Julio C; de Jesús Cantoral-Preciado, Alejandra; Contreras-Manzano, Alejandra G; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; de la Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa V; Diaz-Ortega, Jose L; de Lourdes García-García, María; Garcia-Guerra, Armando; de Cossío, Teresita González; González-Castell, Luz D; Heredia-Pi, Ileana; Hijar-Medina, Marta C; Jauregui, Alejandra; Jimenez-Corona, Aida; Lopez-Olmedo, Nancy; Magis-Rodríguez, Carlos; Medina-Garcia, Catalina; Medina-Mora, Maria E; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Montañez, Julio C; Montero, Pablo; Montoya, Alejandra; Moreno-Banda, Grea L; Pedroza-Tobías, Andrea; Pérez-Padilla, Rogelio; Quezada, Amado D; Richardson-López-Collada, Vesta L; Riojas-Rodríguez, Horacio; Ríos Blancas, Maria J; Razo-Garcia, Christian; Mendoza, Martha P Romero; Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Sánchez-Romero, Luz M; Schilmann, Astrid; Servan-Mori, Edson; Shamah-Levy, Teresa; Téllez-Rojo, Martha M; Texcalac-Sangrador, José L; Wang, Haidong; Vos, Theo; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Naghavi, Mohsen; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Lozano, Rafael

2016-11-12

Child and maternal health outcomes have notably improved in Mexico since 1990, whereas rising adult mortality rates defy traditional epidemiological transition models in which decreased death rates occur across all ages. These trends suggest Mexico is experiencing a more complex, dissonant health transition than historically observed. Enduring inequalities between states further emphasise the need for more detailed health assessments over time. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2013 (GBD 2013) provides the comprehensive, comparable framework through which such national and subnational analyses can occur. This study offers a state-level quantification of disease burden and risk factor attribution in Mexico for the first time. We extracted data from GBD 2013 to assess mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Mexico and its 32 states, along with eight comparator countries in the Americas. States were grouped by Marginalisation Index scores to compare subnational burden along a socioeconomic dimension. We split extracted data by state and applied GBD methods to generate estimates of burden, and attributable burden due to behavioural, metabolic, and environmental or occupational risks. We present results for 306 causes, 2337 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. From 1990 to 2013, life expectancy from birth in Mexico increased by 3·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 3·1-3·8), from 72·1 years (71·8-72·3) to 75·5 years (75·3-75·7), and these gains were more pronounced in states with high marginalisation. Nationally, age-standardised death rates fell 13·3% (11·9-14·6%) since 1990, but state-level reductions for all-cause mortality varied and gaps between life expectancy and years lived in full health, as measured by HALE, widened in several states. Progress in women's life expectancy exceeded that of men, in whom negligible improvements were observed since 2000. For many states, this trend corresponded with rising YLL rates from interpersonal violence and chronic kidney disease. Nationally, age-standardised YLL rates for diarrhoeal diseases and protein-energy malnutrition markedly decreased, ranking Mexico well above comparator countries. However, amid Mexico's progress against communicable diseases, chronic kidney disease burden rapidly climbed, with age-standardised YLL and DALY rates increasing more than 130% by 2013. For women, DALY rates from breast cancer also increased since 1990, rising 12·1% (4·6-23·1%). In 2013, the leading five causes of DALYs were diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, low back and neck pain, and depressive disorders; the latter three were not among the leading five causes in 1990, further underscoring Mexico's rapid epidemiological transition. Leading risk factors for disease burden in 1990, such as undernutrition, were replaced by high fasting plasma glucose and high body-mass index by 2013. Attributable burden due to dietary risks also increased, accounting for more than 10% of DALYs in 2013. Mexico achieved sizeable reductions in burden due to several causes, such as diarrhoeal diseases, and risks factors, such as undernutrition and poor sanitation, which were mainly associated with maternal and child health interventions. Yet rising adult mortality rates from chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cirrhosis, and, since 2000, interpersonal violence drove deteriorating health outcomes, particularly in men. Although state inequalities from communicable diseases narrowed over time, non-communicable diseases and injury burdens varied markedly at local levels. The dissonance with which Mexico and its 32 states are experiencing epidemiological transitions might strain health-system responsiveness and performance, which stresses the importance of timely, evidence-informed health policies and programmes linked to the health needs of each state. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examples of mortality and reduced annual increments of white fir induced by drought, insects, and disease at different stand densities.

Treesearch

P.H. Cochran

1998-01-01

Mortality between 1991 and 1995 destroyed a levels-of-growing-stock study installed in four widely separated blocks in the Deschutes and Fremont National Forests in Oregon. Mortality at one block was attributed to root rot (Armillaria ostoyea (Romagnesi) Herink) and western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman)....

Trends in Hospitalization and Mortality Rates Due to Acute Cardiovascular Disease in Castile and León, 2001 to 2015.

PubMed

López-Messa, Juan B; Andrés-de Llano, Jesús M; López-Fernández, Laura; García-Cruces, Jesús; García-Crespo, Julio; Prieto González, Miryam

2018-02-01

To analyze hospitalization and mortality rates due to acute cardiovascular disease (ACVD). We conducted a cross-sectional study of the hospital discharge database of Castile and León from 2001 to 2015, selecting patients with a principal discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), unstable angina, heart failure, or acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Trends in the rates of hospitalization/100 000 inhabitants/y and hospital mortality/1000 hospitalizations/y, overall and by sex, were studied by joinpoint regression analysis. A total of 239 586 ACVD cases (AMI 55 004; unstable angina 15 406; heart failure 111 647; AIS 57 529) were studied. The following statistically significant trends were observed: hospitalization: ACVD, upward from 2001 to 2007 (5.14; 95%CI, 3.5-6.8; P < .005), downward from 2011 to 2015 (3.7; 95%CI, 1.0-6.4; P < .05); unstable angina, downward from 2001 to 2010 (-12.73; 95%CI, -14.8 to -10.6; P < .05); AMI, upward from 2001 to 2003 (15.6; 95%CI, 3.8-28.9; P < .05), downward from 2003 to 2015 (-1.20; 95%CI, -1.8 to -0.6; P < .05); heart failure, upward from 2001 to 2007 (10.70; 95%CI, 8.7-12.8; P < .05), upward from 2007 to 2015 (1.10; 95%CI, 0.1-2.1; P < .05); AIS, upward from 2001 to 2007 (4.44; 95%CI, 2.9-6.0; P < .05). Mortality rates: downward from 2001 to 2015 in ACVD (-1.16; 95%CI, -2.1 to -0.2; P < .05), AMI (-3.37, 95%CI, -4.4 to -2, 3, P < .05), heart failure (-1.25; 95%CI, -2.3 to -0.1; P < .05) and AIS (-1.78; 95%CI, -2.9 to -0.6; P < .05); unstable angina, upward from 2001 to 2007 (24.73; 95%CI, 14.2-36.2; P < .05). The ACVD analyzed showed a rising trend in hospitalization rates from 2001 to 2015, which was especially marked for heart failure, and a decreasing trend in hospital mortality rates, which were similar in men and women. These data point to a stabilization and a decline in hospital mortality, attributable to established prevention measures. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Mortality of young offenders: a national register-based follow-up study of 15- to 19-year-old Finnish delinquents referred for forensic psychiatric examination between 1980 and 2010.

PubMed

Lindberg, Nina; Miettunen, Jouko; Heiskala, Anni; Kaltiala-Heino, Riittakerttu

2017-01-01

The mortality rate of young offenders is high. Furthermore, mortality in young offenders is associated with psychiatric and substance use disorders. The primary aim of this national register-based follow-up study was to investigate the mortality rate of Finnish delinquents who underwent a forensic psychiatric examination between 1980 and 2010. As delinquency is not a solid entity, we further aimed to compare the risk of premature death among different subgroups of the delinquents; violent versus non-violent offenders, offenders with alcohol use disorders versus those with no such diagnoses, offenders with schizophrenia spectrum disorders versus conduct- and personality-disordered offenders, under-aged versus young adult offenders, and, finally, boys versus girls. We collected the forensic psychiatric examination reports of all 15- to 19-year-old offenders who were born in Finland and had undergone the examination between 1.1.1980 and 31.12.2010 (n = 606) from the archives of the National Institute of Health and Welfare and retrospectively reviewed them. For each delinquent, four age-, gender- and place of birth-matched controls were randomly selected from the Central Population Register (n = 2424). The delinquents and their controls were followed until the end of 2015. The median follow-up time was 23.9 years (interquartile range 15.3-29.5). We obtained the mortality data from the causes of death register. Deaths attributable to a disease or an occupational disease were considered natural, and those attributable to an accident, suicide or homicide were considered unnatural. By the end of the follow-up period, 22.1% (n = 134) of the delinquents and 3.4% (n = 82) of their controls had died (OR 8.11, 95% CI 6.05-10.86, p < 0.001). Among boys, 22.0% (n = 121) of the delinquents and 3.7% (n = 81) of the controls had died (OR 7.38, 95% CI 5.46-9.95, p < 0.001). Male delinquents' risk of unnatural death was almost 11-fold, of natural death more than twofold, and of unclear death more than fourfold compared to that of their controls. No girls had natural or unclear deaths, but 23.6% (n = 13) of the delinquents and 0.5% (n = 1) of the controls had died due to unnatural causes (OR 67.79, 95% CI 8.63-532.00, p < 0.001). The violent delinquents' risk of premature death was twice that of the non-violent delinquents. The other comparisons demonstrated no statistically significant differences between subgroups. Even though the Finnish correction system prefers psychiatric treatment and rehabilitation over criminal sanctions, and the national health care system offers developmental-phase-specific psychiatric care, the mortality rate of delinquents, especially of those with a history of violent offences, is high. The excess mortality of offenders can be regarded as a specific public-health inequity that calls for more effective intervention procedures than those used thus far.

The effect of preexisting respiratory co-morbidities on burn outcomes☆

PubMed Central

Knowlin, Laquanda T.; Stanford, Lindsay B.; Cairns, Bruce A.; Charles, Anthony G.

2018-01-01

Introduction Burns cause physiologic changes in multiple organ systems in the body. Burn mortality is usually attributable to pulmonary complications, which can occur in up to 41% of patients admitted to the hospital after burn. Patients with preexisting comorbidities such as chronic lung diseases may be more susceptible. We therefore sought to examine the impact of preexisting respiratory disease on burn outcomes. Methods A retrospective analysis of patients admitted to a regional burn center from 2002–2012. Independent variables analyzed included basic demographics, burn mechanism, presence of inhalation injury, TBSA, pre-existing comorbidities, smoker status, length of hospital stay, and days of mechanical ventilation. Bivariate analysis was performed and Cox regression modeling using significant variables was utilized to estimate hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation and mortality. Results There were a total of 7640 patients over the study period. Overall survival rate was 96%. 8% (n=672) had a preexisting respiratory disease. Chronic lung disease patients had a higher mortality rate (7%) compared to those without lung disease (4%, p<0.01). The adjusted Cox regression model to estimate the hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation in patients with respiratory disease was 21% higher compared to those without respiratory disease (HR=1.21, 95% CI=1.01–1.44). The hazard of progression to mortality is 56% higher (HR=1.56, 95% CI=1.10–2.19) for patients with pre-existing respiratory disease compared to those without respiratory disease after controlling for patient demographics and injury characteristics. Conclusion Preexisting chronic respiratory disease significantly increases the hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation and mortality in patients following burn. Given the increasing number of Americans with chronic respiratory diseases, there will likely be a greater number of individuals at risk for worse outcomes following burn. PMID:28341260

The effect of preexisting respiratory co-morbidities on burn outcomes.

PubMed

Knowlin, Laquanda T; Stanford, Lindsay B; Cairns, Bruce A; Charles, Anthony G

2017-03-01

Burns cause physiologic changes in multiple organ systems in the body. Burn mortality is usually attributable to pulmonary complications, which can occur in up to 41% of patients admitted to the hospital after burn. Patients with preexisting comorbidities such as chronic lung diseases may be more susceptible. We therefore sought to examine the impact of preexisting respiratory disease on burn outcomes. A retrospective analysis of patients admitted to a regional burn center from 2002-2012. Independent variables analyzed included basic demographics, burn mechanism, presence of inhalation injury, TBSA, pre-existing comorbidities, smoker status, length of hospital stay, and days of mechanical ventilation. Bivariate analysis was performed and Cox regression modeling using significant variables was utilized to estimate hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation and mortality. There were a total of 7640 patients over the study period. Overall survival rate was 96%. 8% (n=672) had a preexisting respiratory disease. Chronic lung disease patients had a higher mortality rate (7%) compared to those without lung disease (4%, p<0.01). The adjusted Cox regression model to estimate the hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation in patients with respiratory disease was 21% higher compared to those without respiratory disease (HR=1.21, 95% CI=1.01-1.44). The hazard of progression to mortality is 56% higher (HR=1.56, 95% CI=1.10-2.19) for patients with pre-existing respiratory disease compared to those without respiratory disease after controlling for patient demographics and injury characteristics. Preexisting chronic respiratory disease significantly increases the hazard of progression to mechanical ventilation and mortality in patients following burn. Given the increasing number of Americans with chronic respiratory diseases, there will likely be a greater number of individuals at risk for worse outcomes following burn. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Corruption kills: estimating the global impact of corruption on children deaths.

PubMed

Hanf, Matthieu; Van-Melle, Astrid; Fraisse, Florence; Roger, Amaury; Carme, Bernard; Nacher, Mathieu

2011-01-01

Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national "perceived level of corruption" (CPI) and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. The final multivariable model (adjusted R(2)= 0.89) included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.value<0.001), logarithm of total health expenditure (p.value = 0.006), Corruption Perception Index (p.value<0.001), presence of an arid climate on the national territory (p = 0.006), and the dependency ratio (p.value<0.001). A decrease in CPI of one point (i.e. a more important perceived corruption) was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related.

Corruption Kills: Estimating the Global Impact of Corruption on Children Deaths

PubMed Central

Hanf, Matthieu; Van-Melle, Astrid; Fraisse, Florence; Roger, Amaury; Carme, Bernard; Nacher, Mathieu

2011-01-01

Background Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. Methods The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national “perceived level of corruption” (CPI) and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. Findings The final multivariable model (adjusted R2 = 0.89) included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.value<0.001), logarithm of total health expenditure (p.value = 0.006), Corruption Perception Index (p.value<0.001), presence of an arid climate on the national territory (p = 0.006), and the dependency ratio (p.value<0.001). A decrease in CPI of one point (i.e. a more important perceived corruption) was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. Interpretations Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related. PMID:22073233

Heatwave and elderly mortality: An evaluation of death burden and health costs considering short-term mortality displacement.

PubMed

Cheng, Jian; Xu, Zhiwei; Bambrick, Hilary; Su, Hong; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2018-06-01

A heatwave can be a devastating natural disaster to human health, and elderly people are particularly vulnerable. With the continuing rise in earth's surface temperature alongside the world's aging population, research on the mortality burden of heatwave for the older population remains relatively sparse. The potential magnitude of benefits of averting such deaths may be considerable. This paper examined the short-term mortality displacement (or "harvesting") of heatwave, characterized the heatwave-mortality relationship, and estimated death burden and health costs attributable to heatwave among the elderly in Australia. We collected daily data on the temperature and deaths of people aged ≥75 years in the five largest cities of Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide), totaling 368,767 deaths in different periods between 1988 and 2011. A total of 15-tiered heatwave definitions, based on intensity (95th to 99th percentiles of temperature distribution) and duration (two or more consecutive days), were used to quantify heatwave effects, using time-series regression and random-effects meta-analysis. We calculated attributable deaths for each city and by different types of heatwave. Potential economic benefits in monetary terms were also estimated, considering that heat-related deaths are avoidable. Among the Australian elderly population, we found significant associations between heatwave and deaths, with raised mortality immediately in the first few days followed by lower-than-expected mortality. In general, heatwave was associated with an average death increase of 28% (95% confidence interval: 15% to 42%), and greater increases were mostly observed for more intense heatwaves across multiple megacities. During the study period, there were dozens to hundreds of deaths attributable to heatwave for each city, equating to an economic loss of several million Australian dollars every year. Although the estimated attributable deaths varied by heatwave intensity and duration, the pattern was not consistent across cities. Heatwave caused harvesting effects on mortality in the elderly population of Australia, and contributed to a substantial amount of death burden and indirect financial costs. To lessen the health impacts of heatwave in the affected regions, effective heatwave early warning systems and interventions targeted at the elderly population could be beneficial, both now and in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antibiotics for the treatment of dysentery in children

PubMed Central

Traa, Beatrix S; Walker, Christa L Fischer; Munos, Melinda; Black, Robert E

2010-01-01

Background Ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone and pivmecillinam are the antibiotics currently recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the treatment of dysentery in children; yet there have been no reviews of the clinical effectiveness of these antibiotics in recent years. Methods We reviewed all literature reporting the effect of ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone and pivmecillinam for the treatment of dysentery in children in the developing countries. We used a standardized abstraction and grading format and performed meta-analyses to determine the effect of treatment with these antibiotics on rates of treatment failure, bacteriological failure and bacteriological relapse. The CHERG Standard Rules were applied to determine the final effect of treatment with these antibiotics on diarrhoea mortality. Results Eight papers were selected for abstraction. Treatment with ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone or pivmecillinam resulted in a cure rate of >99% while assessing clinical failure, bacteriological failure and bacteriological relapse. Conclusions The antibiotics recommended by the WHO—ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone and pivmecillinam—are effective in reducing the clinical and bacteriological signs and symptoms of dysentery and thus can be expected to decrease diarrhoea mortality attributable to dysentery. PMID:20348130

Dying in their prime: determinants and space-time risk of adult mortality in rural South Africa

PubMed Central

Sartorius, Benn; Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A.; Sartorius, Kurt; Tollman, Stephen M.

2013-01-01

A longitudinal dataset was used to investigate adult mortality in rural South Africa in order to determine location, trends, high impact determinants and policy implications. Adult (15-59 years) mortality data for the period 1993-2010 were extracted from the health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in the rural sub-district of Agincourt. A Bayesian geostatistical frailty survival model was used to quantify significant associations between adult mortality and various multilevel (individual, household and community) variables. It was found that adult mortality significantly increased over time with a reduction observed late in the study period. Non-communicable disease mortality appeared to increase and decrease in parallel with communicable mortality, whilst deaths due to external causes remained constant. Male gender, unemployment, circular (labour) migrant status, age and gender of household heads, partner and/or other household death, low education and low household socioeconomic status (SES) were identified as significant and highly attributable determinants of adult mortality. Health facility remoteness was also a risk for adult mortality and households falling outside a critical buffering zone were identified. Spatial foci of higher adult mortality risk were observed indicating a strong non-random pattern. Communicable diseases differed from non-communicable diseases with respect to spatial distribution of mortality. Areas with significant excess mortality risk (hotspots) were found to be part of a complex interaction of highly attributable factors that continues to drive differential space-time risk patterns of communicable (HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis) mortality in Agincourt. The impact of HIV mortality and its subsequent lowering due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was found to be clearly evident in this rural population. PMID:23733287

Dying in their prime: determinants and space-time risk of adult mortality in rural South Africa.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn; Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A; Sartorius, Kurt; Tollman, Stephen M

2013-05-01

A longitudinal dataset was used to investigate adult mortality in rural South Africa in order to determine location, trends, high impact determinants and policy implications. Adult (15-59 years) mortality data for the period 1993-2010 were extracted from the health and demographic surveillance system in the rural sub-district of Agincourt. A Bayesian geostatistical frailty survival model was used to quantify significant associations between adult mortality and various multilevel (individual, household and community) variables. It was found that adult mortality significantly increased over time with a reduction observed late in the study period. Non-communicable disease mortality appeared to increase and decrease in parallel with communicable mortality, whilst deaths due to external causes remained constant. Male gender, unemployment, circular (labour) migrant status, age and gender of household heads, partner and/or other household death, low education and low household socio-economic status were identified as significant and highly attributable determinants of adult mortality. Health facility remoteness was a risk for adult mortality and households falling outside a critical buffering zone were identified. Spatial foci of higher adult mortality risk were observed, indicating a strong non-random pattern. Communicable diseases differed from non-communicable diseases with respect to spatial distribution of mortality. Areas with significant excess mortality risk (hot spots) were found to be part of a complex interaction of highly attributable factors that continues to drive differential space-time risk patterns of communicable (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) mortality in Agincourt. The impact of HIV mortality and its subsequent lowering due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy was found to be clearly evident in this rural population.

Tackling the mortality from long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution in megacities: Lessons from the Greater Cairo case study.

PubMed

Wheida, Ali; Nasser, Amira; El Nazer, Mostafa; Borbon, Agnes; Abo El Ata, Gehad A; Abdel Wahab, Magdy; Alfaro, Stephane C

2018-01-01

The poor outdoor air quality in megacities of the developing world and its impact on health is a matter of concern for both the local populations and the decision-makers. The objective of this work is to quantify the mortality attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO 2 , and O 3 in Greater Cairo (Egypt). We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the three pollutants concentrations measured at 18 stations of the area. Then, we apply the method recommended by the WHO to estimate the excess mortality. In this assessment, three different shapes (log-linear, linear, and log-log) of the concentration-response functions (CRF) are used. With PM2.5 concentrations varying from 50 to more than 100µg/m 3 in the different sectors of the megacity, the spatial variability of this pollutant is found to be one important cause of uncertainty on the excess mortality associated with it. Also important is the choice of the CRF. With the average (75µg/m 3 ) PM2.5 concentration and the most favorable log-log shape of the CRF, 11% (CI, 9-14%) of the non-accidental mortality in the population older than 30 years can still be attributed to PM2.5, which corresponds to 12520 (CI, 10240-15930) yearly premature deaths. Should the Egyptian legal 70µg/m 3 PM10 limit (corresponding to approximately 37.5µg/m 3 for PM2.5) be met, this number would be reduced to 7970, meaning that 4550 premature deaths could be avoided each year. Except around some industrial or traffic hot spots, NO 2 concentration is found to be below the 40µg/m 3 air quality guideline of the WHO. However, the average concentration (34µg/m 3 ) of this gas exceeds the stricter 10µg/m 3 recommendation of the HRAPIE project and it is thus estimated that from 7850 to 10470 yearly deaths can be attributed to NO 2 . Finally, with the ozone concentration measured at one station only, it is found that, depending on the choice of the CRF, between 2.4% and 8.8% of the mortality due to respiratory diseases can be attributed to this gas. In Greater Cairo, PM2.5 and NO 2 constitute major health risks. The best estimate is that in the population older than 30 years, 11% and 8% of the non-accidental mortality can be attributed to these two pollutants, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nationwide implementation of integrated community case management of childhood illness in Rwanda

PubMed Central

Mugeni, Catherine; Levine, Adam C; Munyaneza, Richard M; Mulindahabi, Epiphanie; Cockrell, Hannah C; Glavis-Bloom, Justin; Nutt, Cameron T; Wagner, Claire M; Gaju, Erick; Rukundo, Alphonse; Habimana, Jean Pierre; Karema, Corine; Ngabo, Fidele; Binagwaho, Agnes

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Between 2008 and 2011, Rwanda introduced integrated community case management (iCCM) of childhood illness nationwide. Community health workers in each of Rwanda's nearly 15,000 villages were trained in iCCM and equipped for empirical diagnosis and treatment of pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria; for malnutrition surveillance; and for comprehensive reporting and referral services. Methods: We used data from the Rwanda health management information system (HMIS) to calculate monthly all-cause under-5 mortality rates, health facility use rates, and community-based treatment rates for childhood illness in each district. We then compared a 3-month baseline period prior to iCCM implementation with a seasonally matched comparison period 1 year after iCCM implementation. Finally, we compared the actual changes in all-cause child mortality and health facility use over this time period with the changes that would have been expected based on baseline trends in Rwanda. Results: The number of children receiving community-based treatment for diarrhea and pneumonia increased significantly in the 1-year period after iCCM implementation, from 0.83 cases/1,000 child-months to 3.80 cases/1,000 child-months (P = .01) and 0.25 cases/1,000 child-months to 5.28 cases/1,000 child-months (P<.001), respectively. On average, total under-5 mortality rates declined significantly by 38% (P<.001), and health facility use declined significantly by 15% (P = .006). These decreases were significantly greater than would have been expected based on baseline trends. Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate decreases in both child mortality and health facility use after implementing iCCM of childhood illness at a national level. While our study design does not allow for direct attribution of these changes to implementation of iCCM, these results are in line with those of prior studies conducted at the sub-national level in other low-income countries. PMID:25276592

Excess mortality due to indirect health effects of the 2011 triple disaster in Fukushima, Japan: a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Morita, Tomohiro; Nomura, Shuhei; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Leppold, Claire; Gilmour, Stuart; Ochi, Sae; Ozaki, Akihiko; Shimada, Yuki; Yamamoto, Kana; Inoue, Manami; Kato, Shigeaki; Shibuya, Kenji; Kami, Masahiro

2017-10-01

Evidence on the indirect health impacts of disasters is limited. We assessed the excess mortality risk associated with the indirect health impacts of the 2011 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster) in Fukushima, Japan. The mortality rates in Soma and Minamisoma cities in Fukushima from 2006 to 2015 were calculated using vital statistics and resident registrations. We investigated the excess mortality risk, defined as the increased mortality risk between postdisaster and predisaster after excluding direct deaths attributed to the physical force of the disaster. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality after adjusting for city, age and year. There were 6163 and 6125 predisaster and postdisaster deaths, respectively. The postdisaster mortality risk was significantly higher in the first month following the disaster (March 2011) than in the same month during the predisaster period (March 2006-2010). RRs among men and women were 2.64 (95% CI 2.16 to 3.24) and 2.46 (95% CI 1.99 to 3.03), respectively, demonstrating excess mortality risk due to the indirect health effects of the disaster. Age-specific subgroup analyses revealed a significantly higher mortality risk in women aged ≥85 years in the third month of the disaster compared with predisaster baseline, with an RR (95% CI) of 1.73 (1.23 to 2.44). Indirect health impacts are most severe in the first month of the disaster. Early public health support, especially for the elderly, can be an important factor for reducing the indirect health effects of a disaster. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Household Fuel Use and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Golestan Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Mitter, Sumeet S.; Vedanthan, Rajesh; Islami, Farhad; Pourshams, Akram; Khademi, Hooman; Kamangar, Farin; Abnet, Christian C.; Dawsey, Sanford M.; Pharoah, Paul D.; Brennan, Paul; Fuster, Valentin; Boffetta, Paolo; Malekzadeh, Reza

2016-01-01

Background Household air pollution is the third largest risk factor for global disease burden, but direct links with cardiovascular disease mortality are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between household fuel use and cardiovascular disease mortality. Methods and Results The Golestan Cohort Study in northeastern Iran enrolled 50045 individuals aged 40 to 75 years between 2004 and 2008, and collected data on lifetime household fuel use and other baseline exposures. Participants were followed through 2012 with a 99% successful follow-up rate. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for associations between pehen (local dung), wood, kerosene/diesel, or natural gas burning for cooking and heating and all-cause and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for lifetime exposure to each of these fuels and potential confounders. 3073 participants (6%) died during follow-up, 78% of which were attributable to non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular, oncologic and respiratory illnesses. Adjusted 10-year HRs from kerosene/diesel burning were 1.06 (95% CI 1.02-1.10), and 1.11 (1.06-1.17), respectively, for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Subtype-specific analyses revealed a significant increase in ischemic heart disease (10-year HR 1.14 (1.06-1.21)) and a trend toward cerebrovascular accident (10-year HR 1.08 (0.99-1.17)) mortality. Stratification by sex revealed a potential signal for increased risk for all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality among women versus men, with similar risk for ischemic heart disease mortality. Conclusions Household exposure to high-pollution fuels was associated with increased risk for all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. Replicating these results worldwide would support efforts to reduce such exposures. PMID:27297340

Continuous decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Japan despite a continuous and marked rise in total cholesterol: Japanese experience after the Seven Countries Study.

PubMed

Sekikawa, Akira; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Miura, Katsuyuki; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Willcox, Bradley J; Masaki, Kamal H; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Tracy, Russell P; Okamura, Tomonori; Kuller, Lewis H

2015-10-01

The Seven Countries Study in the 1960s showed very low mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Japan, which was attributed to very low levels of total cholesterol. Studies of migrant Japanese to the USA in the 1970s documented increase in CHD rates, thus CHD mortality in Japan was expected to increase as their lifestyle became Westernized, yet CHD mortality has continued to decline since 1970. This study describes trends in CHD mortality and its risk factors since 1980 in Japan, contrasting those in other selected developed countries. We selected Australia, Canada, France, Japan, Spain, Sweden, the UK and the USA. CHD mortality between 1980 and 2007 was obtained from WHO Statistical Information System. National data on traditional risk factors during the same period were obtained from literature and national surveys. Age-adjusted CHD mortality continuously declined between 1980 and 2007 in all these countries. The decline was accompanied by a constant fall in total cholesterol except Japan where total cholesterol continuously rose. In the birth cohort of individuals currently aged 50-69 years, levels of total cholesterol have been higher in Japan than in the USA, yet CHD mortality in Japan remained the lowest: >67% lower in men and > 75% lower in women compared with the USA. The direction and magnitude of changes in other risk factors were generally similar between Japan and the other countries. Decline in CHD mortality despite a continuous rise in total cholesterol is unique. The observation may suggest some protective factors unique to Japanese. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Variability in Temperature-Related Mortality Projections under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Sottile, Marie-France; Plante, Céline; Brand, Allan; Casati, Barbara; Fournier, Michel

2014-01-01

Background: Most studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections. Objectives: We assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulations based on different climate models and emission scenarios. Methods: We used historical data from 1990 through 2007 for Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) for daily nonaccidental mortality in association with three different daily temperature metrics (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature) during June through August. To estimate future numbers of deaths attributable to ambient temperatures and the uncertainty of the estimates, we used 32 different simulations of daily temperatures for June–August 2020–2037 derived from three global climate models (GCMs) and a Canadian regional climate model with three sets of RRs (one based on the observed historical data, and two on bootstrap samples that generated the 95% CI of the attributable number (AN) of deaths). We then used analysis of covariance to evaluate the influence of the simulation, the projected year, and the sets of RRs used to derive the attributable numbers of deaths. Results: We found that < 1% of the variability in the distributions of simulated temperature for June–August of 2020–2037 was explained by differences among the simulations. Estimated ANs for 2020–2037 ranged from 34 to 174 per summer (i.e., June–August). Most of the variability in mortality projections (38%) was related to the temperature–mortality RR used to estimate the ANs. Conclusions: The choice of the RR estimate for the association between temperature and mortality may be important to reduce uncertainty in mortality projections. Citation: Benmarhnia T, Sottile MF, Plante C, Brand A, Casati B, Fournier M, Smargiassi A. 2014. Variability in temperature-related mortality projections under climate change. Environ Health Perspect 122:1293–1298; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306954 PMID:25036003

Sweden SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking and snus prevalence and attributable deaths.

PubMed

Near, Aimee M; Blackman, Kenneth; Currie, Laura M; Levy, David T

2014-06-01

This study examines the effect of past tobacco control policies and projects the effect of future policies on smoking and snus use prevalence and associated premature mortality in Sweden. The established SimSmoke model was adapted with population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data from Sweden. SimSmoke evaluates the effect of taxes, smoke-free air, mass media, marketing bans, warning labels, cessation treatment and youth access policies on smoking and snus prevalence and the number of deaths attributable to smoking and snus use by gender from 2010 to 2040. Sweden SimSmoke estimates that significant inroads to reducing smoking and snus prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tax increases, especially when combined with other policies. Smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 26% in the first few years, reaching a 37% reduction within 30 years. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost 54 500 lives will be lost in Sweden due to tobacco use by the year 2040. Besides presenting the benefits of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, the model identifies gaps in surveillance and evaluation that can help better focus tobacco control policy in Sweden. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

The Cardiovascular Intensive Care Unit-An Evolving Model for Health Care Delivery.

PubMed

Loughran, John; Puthawala, Tauqir; Sutton, Brad S; Brown, Lorrel E; Pronovost, Peter J; DeFilippis, Andrew P

2017-02-01

Prior to the advent of the coronary care unit (CCU), patients having an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were managed on the general medicine wards with reported mortality rates of greater than 30%. The first CCUs are believed to be responsible for reducing mortality attributed to AMI by as much as 40%. This drastic improvement can be attributed to both advances in medical technology and in the process of health care delivery. Evolving considerably since the 1960s, the CCU is now more appropriately labeled as a cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) and represents a comprehensive system designed for the care of patients with an array of advanced cardiovascular disease, an entity that reaches far beyond its early association with AMI. Grouping of patients by diagnosis to a common physical space, dedicated teams of health care providers, as well as the development and implementation of evidence-based treatment algorithms have resulted in the delivery of safer, more efficient care, and most importantly better patient outcomes. The CICU serves as a platform for an integrated, team-based patient care delivery system that addresses a broad spectrum of patient needs. Lessons learned from this model can be broadly applied to address the urgent need to improve outcomes and efficiency in a variety of health care settings.

Relationships between phyllosphere bacterial communities and plant functional traits in a neotropical forest

PubMed Central

Kembel, Steven W.; O’Connor, Timothy K.; Arnold, Holly K.; Hubbell, Stephen P.; Wright, S. Joseph; Green, Jessica L.

2014-01-01

The phyllosphere—the aerial surfaces of plants, including leaves—is a ubiquitous global habitat that harbors diverse bacterial communities. Phyllosphere bacterial communities have the potential to influence plant biogeography and ecosystem function through their influence on the fitness and function of their hosts, but the host attributes that drive community assembly in the phyllosphere are poorly understood. In this study we used high-throughput sequencing to quantify bacterial community structure on the leaves of 57 tree species in a neotropical forest in Panama. We tested for relationships between bacterial communities on tree leaves and the functional traits, taxonomy, and phylogeny of their plant hosts. Bacterial communities on tropical tree leaves were diverse; leaves from individual trees were host to more than 400 bacterial taxa. Bacterial communities in the phyllosphere were dominated by a core microbiome of taxa including Actinobacteria, Alpha-, Beta-, and Gammaproteobacteria, and Sphingobacteria. Host attributes including plant taxonomic identity, phylogeny, growth and mortality rates, wood density, leaf mass per area, and leaf nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were correlated with bacterial community structure on leaves. The relative abundances of several bacterial taxa were correlated with suites of host plant traits related to major axes of plant trait variation, including the leaf economics spectrum and the wood density–growth/mortality tradeoff. These correlations between phyllosphere bacterial diversity and host growth, mortality, and function suggest that incorporating information on plant–microbe associations will improve our ability to understand plant functional biogeography and the drivers of variation in plant and ecosystem function. PMID:25225376

Mortality attributable to diabetes: estimates for the year 2010.

PubMed

Roglic, Gojka; Unwin, Nigel

2010-01-01

Country and global health statistics underestimate the number of excess deaths due to diabetes. The aim of the study was to provide a more accurate estimate of the number of deaths attributable to diabetes for the year 2010. A computerized disease model was used to obtain the estimates. The baseline input data included the population structure, estimates of diabetes prevalence, estimates of underlying mortality and estimates of the relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. The total number of excess deaths attributable to diabetes worldwide was estimated to be 3.96 million in the age group 20-79 years, 6.8% of global (all ages) mortality. Diabetes accounted for 6% of deaths in adults in the African Region, to 15.7% in the North American Region. Beyond 49 years of age diabetes constituted a higher proportion of deaths in females than in males in all regions, reaching over 25% in some regions and age groups. Thus, diabetes is a considerable cause of premature mortality, a situation that is likely to worsen, particularly in low and middle income countries as diabetes prevalence increases. Investments in primary and secondary prevention are urgently required to reduce this burden. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delayed coral recovery in a warming ocean.

PubMed

Osborne, Kate; Thompson, Angus A; Cheal, Alistair J; Emslie, Michael J; Johns, Kerryn A; Jonker, Michelle J; Logan, Murray; Miller, Ian R; Sweatman, Hugh P A

2017-09-01

Climate change threatens coral reefs across the world. Intense bleaching has caused dramatic coral mortality in many tropical regions in recent decades, but less obvious chronic effects of temperature and other stressors can be equally threatening to the long-term persistence of diverse coral-dominated reef systems. Coral reefs persist if coral recovery rates equal or exceed average rates of mortality. While mortality from acute destructive events is often obvious and easy to measure, estimating recovery rates and investigating the factors that influence them requires long-term commitment. Coastal development is increasing in many regions, and sea surface temperatures are also rising. The resulting chronic stresses have predictable, adverse effects on coral recovery, but the lack of consistent long-term data sets has prevented measurement of how much coral recovery rates are actually changing. Using long-term monitoring data from 47 reefs spread over 10 degrees of latitude on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we used a modified Gompertz equation to estimate coral recovery rates following disturbance. We compared coral recovery rates in two periods: 7 years before and 7 years after an acute and widespread heat stress event on the GBR in 2002. From 2003 to 2009, there were few acute disturbances in the region, allowing us to attribute the observed shortfall in coral recovery rates to residual effects of acute heat stress plus other chronic stressors. Compared with the period before 2002, the recovery of fast-growing Acroporidae and of "Other" slower growing hard corals slowed after 2002, doubling the time taken for modest levels of recovery. If this persists, recovery times will be increasing at a time when acute disturbances are predicted to become more frequent and intense. Our study supports the need for management actions to protect reefs from locally generated stresses, as well as urgent global action to mitigate climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Alcohol-attributable cancer deaths under 80 years of age in New Zealand.

PubMed

Connor, Jennie; Kydd, Robyn; Maclennan, Brett; Shield, Kevin; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-05-01

Cancer deaths made up 30% of all alcohol-attributable deaths in New Zealanders aged 15-79 years in 2007, more than all other chronic diseases combined. We aimed to estimate alcohol-attributable cancer mortality and years of life lost by cancer site and identify differences between Māori and non-Māori New Zealanders. We applied the World Health Organization's comparative risk assessment methodology at the level of Māori and non-Māori subpopulations. Proportions of specific alcohol-related cancers attributable to alcohol were calculated by combining alcohol consumption estimates from representative surveys with relative risks from recent meta-analyses. These proportions were applied to both 2007 and 2012 mortality data. Alcohol consumption was responsible for 4.2% of all cancer deaths under 80 years of age in 2007. An average of 10.4 years of life was lost per person; 12.7 years for Māori and 10.1 years for non-Māori. Half of the deaths were attributable to average consumption of <4 standard drinks per day. Breast cancer comprised 61% of alcohol-attributable cancer deaths in women, and more than one-third of breast cancer deaths were attributable to average consumption of <2 standard drinks per day. Mortality data from 2012 produced very similar findings. Alcohol is an important and modifiable cause of cancer. Risk of cancer increases with higher alcohol consumption, but there is no safe level of drinking. Reduction in population alcohol consumption would reduce cancer deaths. Additional strategies to reduce ethnic disparities in risk and outcome are needed in New Zealand. [Connor J, Kydd R, Maclennan B, Shield K, Rehm J. Alcohol-attributable cancer deaths under 80 years of age in New Zealand. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:415-423]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

[Smoking impact on mortality in Spain in 2012].

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Abejón, Eduardo; Rejas-Gutiérrez, Javier; Criado-Espegel, Paloma; Campo-Ortega, Eva P; Breñas-Villalón, María T; Martín-Sobrino, Nieves

2015-12-21

Smoking is an important public health problem, and is one of the main avoidable causes of morbidity and early mortality. The aim was to estimate the mortality attributable to smoking and its impact on premature mortality in Spain in the year 2012. Descriptive, cross-sectional study, carried out on the Spanish population aged ≥ 18 years in 2012. The prevalence of smoking by age and sex was obtained from the National Health Survey 2011-2012, and the number of deaths by age, sex and cause was obtained from the vital statistics of the National Institute of Statistics. The proportion of deaths attributable to smoking was calculated according to sex and age group, from the etiological fraction of the population. Likewise, loss of potential years of life lost (PYLL) and the mean potential years of life lost (MPYLL) were also calculated. In 2012, smoking caused 60,456 deaths which accounted for 15.23% of all deaths. Trachea-bronchial-lung cancer in men and other cardiopathies in women mostly contributed to this mortality. The PYLL were 184,426, and the MPYLL were 3.25 years in men and 2.42 years in women. In 2012, every day, 125 men and 40 women die from smoking-related conditions. The smoking prevalence has diminished in comparison with previous years and the number and percentage of deaths attributable to the smoking have increased in the last 20 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Mortality Attributable to Seasonal Influenza A and B Infections in Thailand, 2005–2009: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Cooper, Ben S.; Kotirum, Surachai; Kulpeng, Wantanee; Praditsitthikorn, Naiyana; Chittaganpitch, Malinee; Limmathurotsakul, Direk; Day, Nicholas P. J.; Coker, Richard; Teerawattananon, Yot; Meeyai, Aronrag

2015-01-01

Influenza epidemiology differs substantially in tropical and temperate zones, but estimates of seasonal influenza mortality in developing countries in the tropics are lacking. We aimed to quantify mortality due to seasonal influenza in Thailand, a tropical middle-income country. Time series of polymerase chain reaction–confirmed influenza infections between 2005 and 2009 were constructed from a sentinel surveillance network. These were combined with influenza-like illness data to derive measures of influenza activity and relationships to mortality by using a Bayesian regression framework. We estimated 6.1 (95% credible interval: 0.5, 12.4) annual deaths per 100,000 population attributable to influenza A and B, predominantly in those aged ≥60 years, with the largest contribution from influenza A(H1N1) in 3 out of 4 years. For A(H3N2), the relationship between influenza activity and mortality varied over time. Influenza was associated with increases in deaths classified as resulting from respiratory disease (posterior probability of positive association, 99.8%), cancer (98.6%), renal disease (98.0%), and liver disease (99.2%). No association with circulatory disease mortality was found. Seasonal influenza infections are associated with substantial mortality in Thailand, but evidence for the strong relationship between influenza activity and circulatory disease mortality reported in temperate countries is lacking. PMID:25899091

Regional alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality in Great Britain: novel insights using retail sales data.

PubMed

Robinson, Mark; Shipton, Deborah; Walsh, David; Whyte, Bruce; McCartney, Gerry

2015-01-07

Regional differences in population levels of alcohol-related harm exist across Great Britain, but these are not entirely consistent with differences in population levels of alcohol consumption. This incongruence may be due to the use of self-report surveys to estimate consumption. Survey data are subject to various biases and typically produce consumption estimates much lower than those based on objective alcohol sales data. However, sales data have never been used to estimate regional consumption within Great Britain (GB). This ecological study uses alcohol retail sales data to provide novel insights into regional alcohol consumption in GB, and to explore the relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality. Alcohol sales estimates derived from electronic sales, delivery records and retail outlet sampling were obtained. The volume of pure alcohol sold was used to estimate per adult consumption, by market sector and drink type, across eleven GB regions in 2010-11. Alcohol-related mortality rates were calculated for the same regions and a cross-sectional correlation analysis between consumption and mortality was performed. Per adult consumption in northern England was above the GB average and characterised by high beer sales. A high level of consumption in South West England was driven by on-trade sales of cider and spirits and off-trade wine sales. Scottish regions had substantially higher spirits sales than elsewhere in GB, particularly through the off-trade. London had the lowest per adult consumption, attributable to lower off-trade sales across most drink types. Alcohol-related mortality was generally higher in regions with higher per adult consumption. The relationship was weakened by the South West and Central Scotland regions, which had the highest consumption levels, but discordantly low and very high alcohol-related mortality rates, respectively. This study provides support for the ecological relationship between alcohol-related mortality and alcohol consumption. The synthesis of knowledge from a combination of sales, survey and mortality data, as well as primary research studies, is key to ensuring that regional alcohol consumption, and its relationship with alcohol-related harms, is better understood.

Mediterranean diet, lifestyle factors, and 10-year mortality in elderly European men and women: the HALE project.

PubMed

Knoops, Kim T B; de Groot, Lisette C P G M; Kromhout, Daan; Perrin, Anne-Elisabeth; Moreiras-Varela, Olga; Menotti, Alessandro; van Staveren, Wija A

2004-09-22

Dietary patterns and lifestyle factors are associated with mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer, but few studies have investigated these factors in combination. To investigate the single and combined effect of Mediterranean diet, being physically active, moderate alcohol use, and nonsmoking on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in European elderly individuals. The Healthy Ageing: a Longitudinal study in Europe (HALE) population, comprising individuals enrolled in the Survey in Europe on Nutrition and the Elderly: a Concerned Action (SENECA) and the Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Elderly (FINE) studies, includes 1507 apparently healthy men and 832 women, aged 70 to 90 years in 11 European countries. This cohort study was conducted between 1988 and 2000. Ten-year mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. During follow-up, 935 participants died: 371 from cardiovascular diseases, 233 from cancer, and 145 from other causes; for 186, the cause of death was unknown. Adhering to a Mediterranean diet (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68-0.88), moderate alcohol use (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.91), physical activity (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.55-0.72), and nonsmoking (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.57-0.75) were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HRs controlled for age, sex, years of education, body mass index, study, and other factors). Similar results were observed for mortality from coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. The combination of 4 low risk factors lowered the all-cause mortality rate to 0.35 (95% CI, 0.28-0.44). In total, lack of adherence to this low-risk pattern was associated with a population attributable risk of 60% of all deaths, 64% of deaths from coronary heart disease, 61% from cardiovascular diseases, and 60% from cancer. Among individuals aged 70 to 90 years, adherence to a Mediterranean diet and healthful lifestyle is associated with a more than 50% lower rate of all-causes and cause-specific mortality.

Evaluations of emamectin benzoate and propiconazole for protecting individual Pinus contorta from mortality attributed to colonization by Dendroctonus ponderosae and associated fungi.

PubMed

Fettig, Christopher J; Munson, A Steven; Grosman, Donald M; Bush, Parshall B

2014-05-01

Protection of conifers from bark beetle colonization typically involves applications of liquid formulations of contact insecticides to the tree bole. An evaluation was made of the efficacy of bole injections of emamectin benzoate alone and combined with the fungicide propiconazole for protecting individual lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud., from mortality attributed to colonization by mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, and progression of associated blue stain fungi. Injections of emamectin benzoate applied in mid-June did not provide adequate levels of tree protection; however, injections of emamectin benzoate + propiconazole applied at the same time were effective for two field seasons. Injections of emamectin benzoate and emamectin benzoate + propiconazole in mid-September provided tree protection the following field season, but unfortunately efficacy could not be determined during a second field season owing to insufficient levels of tree mortality observed in the untreated control, indicative of low D. ponderosae populations. Previous evaluations of emamectin benzoate for protecting P. contorta from mortality attributed to D. ponderosae have failed to demonstrate efficacy, which was later attributed to inadequate distribution of emamectin benzoate following injections applied several weeks before D. ponderosae colonization. The present data indicate that injections of emamectin benzoate applied in late summer or early fall will provide adequate levels of tree protection the following summer, and that, when emamectin benzoate is combined with propiconazole, tree protection is afforded the year that injections are implemented. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Diverging trends in educational inequalities in cancer mortality between men and women in the 2000s in France

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have been observed in different European countries and the US until the end of the 1990s, with changes over time in the magnitude of these inequalities and contrasted situations between countries. The aim of this study is to estimate relative and absolute educational differences in cancer mortality in France between 1999 and 2007, and to compare these inequalities with those reported during the 1990s. Methods Data from a representative sample including 1% of the French population were analysed. Educational differences among people aged 30–74 were quantified with hazard ratios and relative indices of inequality (RII) computed using Cox regression models as well as mortality rate difference and population attributable fraction. Results In the period 1999–2007, large relative inequalities were found among men for total cancer and smoking and/or alcohol related cancers mortality (lung, head and neck, oesophagus). Among women, educational differences were reported for total cancer, head and neck and uterus cancer mortality. No association was found between education and breast cancer mortality. Slight educational differences in colorectal cancer mortality were observed in men and women. For most frequent cancers, no change was observed in the magnitude of relative inequalities in mortality between the 1990s and the 2000s, although the RII for lung cancer increased both in men and women. Among women, a large increase in absolute inequalities in mortality was observed for all cancers combined, lung, head and neck and colorectal cancer. In contrast, among men, absolute inequalities in mortality decreased for all smoking and/or alcohol related cancers. Conclusion Although social inequalities in cancer mortality are still high among men, an encouraging trend is observed. Among women though, the situation regarding social inequalities is less favourable, mainly due to a health improvement limited to higher educated women. These inequalities may be expected to further increase in future years. PMID:24015917

Diverging trends in educational inequalities in cancer mortality between men and women in the 2000s in France.

PubMed

Menvielle, Gwenn; Rey, Grégoire; Jougla, Eric; Luce, Danièle

2013-09-10

Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have been observed in different European countries and the US until the end of the 1990s, with changes over time in the magnitude of these inequalities and contrasted situations between countries. The aim of this study is to estimate relative and absolute educational differences in cancer mortality in France between 1999 and 2007, and to compare these inequalities with those reported during the 1990s. Data from a representative sample including 1% of the French population were analysed. Educational differences among people aged 30-74 were quantified with hazard ratios and relative indices of inequality (RII) computed using Cox regression models as well as mortality rate difference and population attributable fraction. In the period 1999-2007, large relative inequalities were found among men for total cancer and smoking and/or alcohol related cancers mortality (lung, head and neck, oesophagus). Among women, educational differences were reported for total cancer, head and neck and uterus cancer mortality. No association was found between education and breast cancer mortality. Slight educational differences in colorectal cancer mortality were observed in men and women. For most frequent cancers, no change was observed in the magnitude of relative inequalities in mortality between the 1990s and the 2000s, although the RII for lung cancer increased both in men and women. Among women, a large increase in absolute inequalities in mortality was observed for all cancers combined, lung, head and neck and colorectal cancer. In contrast, among men, absolute inequalities in mortality decreased for all smoking and/or alcohol related cancers. Although social inequalities in cancer mortality are still high among men, an encouraging trend is observed. Among women though, the situation regarding social inequalities is less favourable, mainly due to a health improvement limited to higher educated women. These inequalities may be expected to further increase in future years.

Optimism and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Kim, Eric S.; Hagan, Kaitlin A.; Grodstein, Francine; DeMeo, Dawn L.; De Vivo, Immaculata; Kubzansky, Laura D.

2017-01-01

Growing evidence has linked positive psychological attributes like optimism to a lower risk of poor health outcomes, especially cardiovascular disease. It has been demonstrated in randomized trials that optimism can be learned. If associations between optimism and broader health outcomes are established, it may lead to novel interventions that improve public health and longevity. In the present study, we evaluated the association between optimism and cause-specific mortality in women after considering the role of potential confounding (sociodemographic characteristics, depression) and intermediary (health behaviors, health conditions) variables. We used prospective data from the Nurses’ Health Study (n = 70,021). Dispositional optimism was measured in 2004; all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates were assessed from 2006 to 2012. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we found that a higher degree of optimism was associated with a lower mortality risk. After adjustment for sociodemographic confounders, compared with women in the lowest quartile of optimism, women in the highest quartile had a hazard ratio of 0.71 (95% confidence interval: 0.66, 0.76) for all-cause mortality. Adding health behaviors, health conditions, and depression attenuated but did not eliminate the associations (hazard ratio = 0.91, 95% confidence interval: 0.85, 0.97). Associations were maintained for various causes of death, including cancer, heart disease, stroke, respiratory disease, and infection. Given that optimism was associated with numerous causes of mortality, it may provide a valuable target for new research on strategies to improve health. PMID:27927621

Realities for change in child health care: existing patterns and future possibilities.

PubMed Central

Stacey, M

1980-01-01

In assessing some of the existing patterns and future possibilities in child health care it was found that the continuing large social class differences in morbidity and mortality may be attributed to continued poverty, both of income and therefore of diet, and also to environmental deprivation. The absence of safe places for children to play, for example, is related to the high accident rates experienced by children. Doctors admit to awareness of these social and environmental causes of unnecessary morbidity and mortality among children but have failed to address the causes directly. While the causes are outside the immediate professional provenance of doctors, it is argued that, aware as they are of this aetiology, they have a moral and professional responsibility to act collectively as a pressure group urging improvements on the relevant authorities (as they have done in the case of smoking and clean air, for example). PMID:6446349

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

PubMed Central

Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

2015-01-01

Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

Multiple sclerosis and alcohol use disorders: In-hospital mortality, extended hospital stays, and overexpenditures.

PubMed

Gili-Miner, M; López-Méndez, J; Vilches-Arenas, A; Ramírez-Ramírez, G; Franco-Fernández, D; Sala-Turrens, J; Béjar-Prado, L

2016-10-22

The objective of this study was to analyse the impact of alcohol use disorders (AUD) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) in terms of in-hospital mortality, extended hospital stays, and overexpenditures. We conducted a retrospective observational study in a sample of MS patients obtained from minimal basic data sets from 87 Spanish hospitals recorded between 2008 and 2010. Mortality, length of hospital stays, and overexpenditures attributable to AUD were calculated. We used a multivariate analysis of covariance to control for such variables as age and sex, type of hospital, type of admission, other addictions, and comorbidities. The 10,249 patients admitted for MS and aged 18-74 years included 215 patients with AUD. Patients with both MS and AUD were predominantly male, with more emergency admissions, a higher prevalence of tobacco or substance use disorders, and higher scores on the Charlson comorbidity index. Patients with MS and AUD had a very high in-hospital mortality rate (94.1%) and unusually lengthy stays (2.4 days), and they generated overexpenditures (1,116.9euros per patient). According to the results of this study, AUD in patients with MS results in significant increases in-hospital mortality and the length of the hospital stay and results in overexpenditures. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986-2005.

PubMed

Kwon, Jin-Won; Chun, Heeran; Cho, Sung-il

2009-02-27

Suicide rates have recently been decreasing on average among OECD countries, but increasing trends have been detected in South Korea, particularly since the 1997 economic crisis. There have been no detailed analyses about the changes of the suicide rates over time periods in Korea. We examined trends in both absolute and proportional suicide rates over the time period of economic development, crisis, and recovery (1986 - 2005) as well as in birth cohorts from 1924 to 1978. We used data on total mortality and suicide rates from 1986 to 2005 published online by the Korean National Statistical Office (NSO) and extracted data for individuals under 80 years old. The analyses of the trends for 1) the sex-age-specific total mortality rate, 2) the sex-age-specific suicide rate, and 3) the sex-age-specific proportional suicide rate in 1986-2005 were conducted. To demonstrate the birth cohort effect on the proportional suicide rate, the synthetic birth cohort from 1924 to 1978 from the successive cross-sectional data was constructed. Age standardized suicide rates in South Korea increased by 98% in men (from 15.3 to 30.3 per 100,000) and by 124% in women (from 5.8 to 13.0 per 100,000). In both genders, the proportional increase in suicide rates was more prominent among the younger group aged under 45, despite the absolute increase being attributed to the older group. There were distinct cohort effects underlying increasing suicide rates particularly among younger age groups. Increasing suicide rates in Korea was composed of a greater absolute increase in the older group and a greater proportional increase in the younger group.

A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986–2005

PubMed Central

Kwon, Jin-Won; Chun, Heeran; Cho, Sung-il

2009-01-01

Background Suicide rates have recently been decreasing on average among OECD countries, but increasing trends have been detected in South Korea, particularly since the 1997 economic crisis. There have been no detailed analyses about the changes of the suicide rates over time periods in Korea. We examined trends in both absolute and proportional suicide rates over the time period of economic development, crisis, and recovery (1986 – 2005) as well as in birth cohorts from 1924 to 1978. Methods We used data on total mortality and suicide rates from 1986 to 2005 published online by the Korean National Statistical Office (NSO) and extracted data for individuals under 80 years old. The analyses of the trends for 1) the sex-age-specific total mortality rate, 2) the sex-age-specific suicide rate, and 3) the sex-age-specific proportional suicide rate in 1986–2005 were conducted. To demonstrate the birth cohort effect on the proportional suicide rate, the synthetic birth cohort from 1924 to 1978 from the successive cross-sectional data was constructed. Results Age standardized suicide rates in South Korea increased by 98% in men (from 15.3 to 30.3 per 100,000) and by 124% in women (from 5.8 to 13.0 per 100,000). In both genders, the proportional increase in suicide rates was more prominent among the younger group aged under 45, despite the absolute increase being attributed to the older group. There were distinct cohort effects underlying increasing suicide rates particularly among younger age groups. Conclusion Increasing suicide rates in Korea was composed of a greater absolute increase in the older group and a greater proportional increase in the younger group. PMID:19250535

Neonatal morbidity and mortality of 31 calves derived from somatic cloning.

PubMed

Brisville, A-C; Fecteau, G; Boysen, S; Desrochers, A; Dorval, P; Buczinski, S; Lefebvre, R; Hélie, P; Blondin, P; Smith, L C

2013-01-01

The neonatal period is associated with high morbidity and mortality in cloned calves. To describe morbidity and mortality in cloned calves from birth to 2 years of age. Thirty-one somatic cell-derived Holstein calves delivered at a veterinary teaching hospital. Medical files were retrospectively analyzed. Four calves were stillborn. Five calves born alive had physical congenital defects. Twenty-three calves had an enlarged umbilical cord. Laboratory abnormalities included acidemia, respiratory acidosis, hyperlactatemia, anemia, stress leukogram, decreased total protein, albumin and globulins, and increased creatinine. Twenty-five calves survived the 1st hour of life. Among them, 11 stood without assistance within 6 hours of birth, 10 calves took longer than 6 hours to stand, and 4 never stood. Twenty-two calves suffered from anorexia. Twelve calves had complications arising from umbilical cord infections. Three calves developed idiopathic hyperthermia (>40°C). Eight calves suffered from gastrointestinal problems, including ruminal distension, abomasal ulcers, neonatal enteritis, intussusception, and abomasal displacement. Mortality between birth and 3 weeks of age was 32% (10/31). Causes of death and reasons for euthanasia included stillbirths, respiratory failure, and limb deformities. Mortality between 3 weeks and 2 years of age was 19% (4/21), with deaths in this group attributed to generalized peritonitis and complications arising from umbilical infections. Overall, mortality rate within 2 years of age was 14/31 (45%). Respiratory problems, limb deformities, and umbilical infections were the most common causes of morbidity and mortality in these cloned calves. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Assessing adult mortality in HIV-1-afflicted Zimbabwe (1998 -2003).

PubMed Central

Lopman, Ben A.; Barnabas, Ruanne; Hallett, Timothy B.; Nyamukapa, Constance; Mundandi, Costa; Mushati, Phyllis; Garnett, Geoff P.; Gregson, Simon

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare alternative methods to vital registration systems for estimating adult mortality, and describe patterns of mortality in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, which has been severely affected by HIV. METHODS: We compared estimates of adult mortality from (1) a single question on household mortality, (2) repeated household censuses, and (3) an adult cohort study with linked HIV testing from Manicaland, with a mathematical model fitted to local age-specific HIV prevalence (1998 -2000). FINDINGS: The crude death rate from the single question (29 per 1000 person-years) was roughly consistent with that from the mathematical model (22 -25 per 1000 person-years), but much higher than that from the household censuses (12 per 1000 person-years). Adult mortality in the household censuses (males 0.65; females 0.51) was lower than in the cohort study (males 0.77; females 0.57), while mathematical models gave a much higher estimate, especially for females (males 0.80 -0.83; females 0.75 -0.80). The population attributable fraction of adult deaths due to HIV was 0.61 for men and 0.70 for women, with life expectancy estimated to be 34.3 years for males and 38.2 years for females. CONCLUSION: Each method for estimating adult mortality had limitations in terms of loss to follow-up (cohort study), under-ascertainment (household censuses), transparency of underlying processes (single question), and sensitivity to parameterization (mathematical model). However, these analyses make clear the advantages of longitudinal cohort data, which provide more complete ascertainment than household censuses, highlight possible inaccuracies in model assumptions, and allow direct quantification of the impact of HIV. PMID:16583077

Years of potential life lost and productivity costs due to premature cancer-related mortality in Iran.

PubMed

Khorasani, Soheila; Rezaei, Satar; Rashidian, Hamideh; Daroudi, Rajabali

2015-01-01

Cancer is recently one of the major concerns of the public health both in the world and Iran. To inform priorities for cancer control, this study estimated years of potential life lost (YPLL) and productivity losses due to cancer-related premature mortality in Iran in 2012. The number of cancer deaths by sex for all cancers and the ten leading causes of cancer deaths in Iran in 2012 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database. The life expectancy method and the human capital approach were used to estimate the YPLL and the value of productivity lost due to cancer-related premature mortality. There were 53,350 cancer-related deaths in Iran. We estimated that these cancer deaths resulted in 1,112,680 YPLL in total, 563,332 (50.6%) in males and 549,348 (49.4%) in females. The top 10 ranked cancers accounted for 75% of total death and 70% of total YPLL in the males and 69% for both death and YPLL in the females. The largest contributors for YPLL in the two genders were stomach and breast cancers, respectively. The total cost of lost productivity due to cancer-related premature mortality discounted at 3% rate in Iran, was US$ 1.93 billion. The most costly cancer for the males was stomach, while for the females it was breast cancer. The percentage of the total costs that were attributable to the top 10 cancers was 67% in the males and 71% in the females. The YPLL and productivity losses due to cancer-related premature mortality are substantial in Iran. Setting resource allocation priorities to cancers that occur in younger working-age individuals (such as brain and central nervous system) and/or cancers with high incidence and mortality rates (such as stomach and breast) could potentially decrease the productivity losses and the YPLL to a great extent in Iran.

Trends in incidence, mortality and survival of penile squamous cell carcinoma in Norway 1956-2015.

PubMed

Hansen, Bo T; Orumaa, Madleen; Lie, A Kathrine; Brennhovd, Bjørn; Nygård, Mari

2018-04-15

We examine trends in incidence, mortality and survival of penile squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in Norway over 60 years. Data on all cases of penile cancer diagnosed in Norway during 1956-2015 were obtained from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Trends in age-standardized rates of penile SCC incidence, mortality and 5-year relative survival were assessed by the annual percentage change statistic and joinpoint regression. A total of 1,596 penile cancer cases were diagnosed during 1956-2015, among which 1,474 (92.4%) were SCC. During 2011-2015, the age-standardized incidence and mortality of penile SCC were 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78; 1.05) and 0.50 (0.42; 0.60) per 100,000, respectively, and the 5-year relative survival was 61.6% (41.9; 76.4). The incidence of SCC increased during 1956-2015, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.80% (0.46; 1.15). The increase was strongest among men diagnosed at a relatively early age (age<=64 years; AAPC: 1.47% (0.90; 2.05)). Mortality also increased over the study period (AAPC: 0.47% (0.10; 0.85)), whereas 5-year relative survival did not change (AAPC: 0.08% (-0.19; 0.36)). We conclude that the incidence of penile SCC has increased at a moderate and constant rate during 1956-2015, and that the most consistent increase occurred among younger men. Mortality also increased during the study period. However, survival did not change, thus changes in diagnostics and treatment had little impact on survival from penile SCC. Since a substantial proportion of penile SCC is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV), the incidence increase may in part be attributed to increased exposure to HPV in the population. © 2017 The Authors International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.

Trends in incidence, mortality and survival of penile squamous cell carcinoma in Norway 1956–2015

PubMed Central

Orumaa, Madleen; Lie, A. Kathrine; Brennhovd, Bjørn; Nygård, Mari

2017-01-01

We examine trends in incidence, mortality and survival of penile squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in Norway over 60 years. Data on all cases of penile cancer diagnosed in Norway during 1956–2015 were obtained from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Trends in age‐standardized rates of penile SCC incidence, mortality and 5‐year relative survival were assessed by the annual percentage change statistic and joinpoint regression. A total of 1,596 penile cancer cases were diagnosed during 1956–2015, among which 1,474 (92.4%) were SCC. During 2011–2015, the age‐standardized incidence and mortality of penile SCC were 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78; 1.05) and 0.50 (0.42; 0.60) per 100,000, respectively, and the 5‐year relative survival was 61.6% (41.9; 76.4). The incidence of SCC increased during 1956–2015, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.80% (0.46; 1.15). The increase was strongest among men diagnosed at a relatively early age (age<=64 years; AAPC: 1.47% (0.90; 2.05)). Mortality also increased over the study period (AAPC: 0.47% (0.10; 0.85)), whereas 5‐year relative survival did not change (AAPC: 0.08% (−0.19; 0.36)). We conclude that the incidence of penile SCC has increased at a moderate and constant rate during 1956–2015, and that the most consistent increase occurred among younger men. Mortality also increased during the study period. However, survival did not change, thus changes in diagnostics and treatment had little impact on survival from penile SCC. Since a substantial proportion of penile SCC is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV), the incidence increase may in part be attributed to increased exposure to HPV in the population. PMID:29205336

The natural history of Dandy-Walker syndrome in the United States: A population-based analysis

PubMed Central

McClelland, Shearwood; Ukwuoma, Onyinyechi I.; Lunos, Scott; Okuyemi, Kolawole S.

2015-01-01

Background: Dandy-Walker syndrome (DWS) is a congenital disorder typically manifesting with hydrocephalus. The classic anatomic hallmarks of DWS are hypoplasia of the cerebellar vermis, anterior-posterior enlargement of the posterior fossa, upward displacement of the torcula and transverse sinuses, and cystic dilatation of the fourth ventricle. Aims: Although optimal treatment of DWS typically requires neurosurgical intervention to prevent intracranial pressure increases incompatible with life, the natural history of this disorder has yet to be evaluated on a nationwide level. Settings and Design/Materials and Methods: The Kids’ Inpatient Database covering 1997-2003 was used for analysis. Children younger than age 18 admitted for DWS (ICD-9-CM = 742.3) were analyzed with a matched control group. The primary procedure codes for operative CSF drainage were coded into the analysis. The incidence of DWS was 0.136%; 14,599 DWS patients were included. Statistical Analysis Used: Multiple logistic regression models were used. Odds ratios (OR) were reported with 95% confidence intervals. Results and Conclusions: Mortality (OR = 10.02; P < 0.0001) and adverse discharge disposition (OR = 4.59; P < 0.0001) were significantly greater in DWS patients compared with controls. 20.4% of DWS patients received operative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage, 81-times more than controls (P < 0.0001). CSF drainage reduced mortality by 44% among DWS patients (P < 0.0001). Although DWS is associated with a 10-fold increase in mortality, operative CSF drainage nearly halves the mortality rate. Based on these findings (Class IIB evidence), it is likely that the increased mortality associated with DWS is directly attributable to the nearly 80% of DWS patients who did not receive operative CSF drainage for hydrocephalus. Consequently, increased access to neurosurgical intervention could reduce the mortality rate of DWS towards that of the general population. PMID:25552847

Cryptococcal meningitis in HIV-infected patients at Chiang Mai University Hospital: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Chaiwarith, Romanee; Vongsanim, Surachet; Supparatpinyo, Khuanchai

2014-05-01

Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is a common central nervous system infection in HIV-infected patients. This study aimed to determine treatment outcomes among HIV-infected patients who had cryptococcal meningitis and to determine predictors of death. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among HIV-infected patients receiving care at Chiang Mai University Hospital from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2010. We studied 79 patients; 45 (57.0%) were male and the mean age was 35.1 +/- 7.2 years. Eleven patients (13.9%) had previous opportunistic infection. The most common presenting symptoms were headache (63 patients, 79.8%), fever (49 patients, 62.0%), and altered consciousness (21 patients, 26.6%). The median CD4+ cell count was 20 cells/mm3 [Interquartile range (IQR) 10, 53]. The in-hospital, 90-day, and 1-year mortality rates were 24.1%, 32.4%, and 52.2%, respectively. The CM attributable in-hospital, 90-day and 1-year mortality rates were 13.9%, 20.3%, and 23.2%, respectively. Predictors associated with a 1-year mortality were a high cerebrospinal (CSF) cryptococcal antigen titer (> 1:10,000) [Odds Ratio (OR) =7.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.62-31.00, p = 0.009], and altered consciousness at presentation (OR = 5.27; 95% CI: 1.16-24.05; p = 0.032). Cryptococcal meningitis is an important cause of death in HIV-infected patients. HIV-infected patients with a low CD4+ cell count, a headache, fever and altered consciousness should be investigated for CM and those with a high CSF cryptococcal antigen titer are at high risk for mortality.

Prognostic impact of peritonitis in hemodialysis patients: A national-wide longitudinal study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lee, Cheng-Chia; Wu, Patricia W.; Chang, Chee-Jen; Tian, Ya-Chung; Yang, Chih-Wei

2017-01-01

Background Peritonitis has been independently associated with increased morbidity and mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients. However, there are few reports on peritonitis in hemodialysis patients. We aim at investigating both the risk profiles and prognostic impact of peritonitis in hemodialysis patients. Methods This nation-wide longitudinal study uses claims data obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 80,733 incident hemodialysis patients of age ≥ 20 years without a history of peritonitis were identified between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2009. Predictors of peritonitis events were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratio for mortality attributed to peritonitis exposure. Results Of 80,733 incident hemodialysis patients over a 13-year study period, peritonitis was diagnosed in 935 (1.16%), yielding an incidence rate of 2.91 per 1000 person-years. Female gender, liver cirrhosis and polycystic kidney disease were three of the most significant factors for peritonitis in both non-diabetic and diabetic hemodialysis patients. The cumulative survival rate of patients with peritonitis was 38.8% at 1 year and 10.1% at 5 years. A time-dependent Cox multivariate analysis showed that peritonitis had significantly increased hazard ratio for all cause mortality. Additionally, the risk of mortality remained significantly higher for non-diabetic hemodialysis patients that experienced peritonitis. Conclusions The risk of peritonitis in hemodialysis patients is higher in female gender, liver cirrhosis and polycystic kidney disease. Although peritonitis is a rare condition, it is associated with significantly poorer outcome in hemodialysis patients. PMID:28301536

Prognostic impact of peritonitis in hemodialysis patients: A national-wide longitudinal study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lu, Yueh-An; Tu, Kun-Hua; Lee, Cheng-Chia; Wu, Patricia W; Chang, Chee-Jen; Tian, Ya-Chung; Yang, Chih-Wei; Chu, Pao-Hsien

2017-01-01

Peritonitis has been independently associated with increased morbidity and mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients. However, there are few reports on peritonitis in hemodialysis patients. We aim at investigating both the risk profiles and prognostic impact of peritonitis in hemodialysis patients. This nation-wide longitudinal study uses claims data obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 80,733 incident hemodialysis patients of age ≥ 20 years without a history of peritonitis were identified between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2009. Predictors of peritonitis events were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratio for mortality attributed to peritonitis exposure. Of 80,733 incident hemodialysis patients over a 13-year study period, peritonitis was diagnosed in 935 (1.16%), yielding an incidence rate of 2.91 per 1000 person-years. Female gender, liver cirrhosis and polycystic kidney disease were three of the most significant factors for peritonitis in both non-diabetic and diabetic hemodialysis patients. The cumulative survival rate of patients with peritonitis was 38.8% at 1 year and 10.1% at 5 years. A time-dependent Cox multivariate analysis showed that peritonitis had significantly increased hazard ratio for all cause mortality. Additionally, the risk of mortality remained significantly higher for non-diabetic hemodialysis patients that experienced peritonitis. The risk of peritonitis in hemodialysis patients is higher in female gender, liver cirrhosis and polycystic kidney disease. Although peritonitis is a rare condition, it is associated with significantly poorer outcome in hemodialysis patients.

Absolute Humidity and the Seasonality of Influenza (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaman, J. L.; Pitzer, V.; Viboud, C.; Grenfell, B.; Goldstein, E.; Lipsitch, M.

2010-12-01

Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent re-analysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here we show that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions. In addition, we show that variations of the basic and effective reproductive numbers for influenza, caused by seasonal changes in absolute humidity, are consistent with the general timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks observed for 2009 A/H1N1 in temperate regions. Indeed, absolute humidity conditions correctly identify the region of the United States vulnerable to a third, wintertime wave of pandemic influenza. These findings suggest that the timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks is controlled by a combination of absolute humidity conditions, levels of susceptibility and changes in population mixing and contact rates.

Survival against the odds: ontogenetic changes in selective pressure mediate growth-mortality trade-offs in a marine fish.

PubMed

Gagliano, Monica; McCormick, Mark I; Meekan, Mark G

2007-07-07

For organisms with complex life cycles, variation among individuals in traits associated with survival in one life-history stage can strongly affect the performance in subsequent stages with important repercussions on population dynamics. To identify which individual attributes are the most influential in determining patterns of survival in a cohort of reef fish, we compared the characteristics of Pomacentrus amboinensis surviving early juvenile stages on the reef with those of the cohort from which they originated. Individuals were collected at hatching, the end of the planktonic phase, and two, three, four, six and eight weeks post-settlement. Information stored in the otoliths of individual fish revealed strong carry-over effects of larval condition at hatching on juvenile survival, weeks after settlement (i.e. smaller-is-better). Among the traits examined, planktonic growth history was, by far, the most influential and long-lasting trait associated with juvenile persistence in reef habitats. However, otolith increments suggested that larval growth rate may not be maintained during early juvenile life, when selective mortality swiftly reverses its direction. These changes in selective pressure may mediate growth-mortality trade-offs between predation and starvation risks during early juvenile life. Ontogenetic changes in the shape of selectivity may be a mechanism maintaining phenotypic variation in growth rate and size within a population.

Training traditional birth attendants on the WHO Essential Newborn Care reduces perinatal mortality.

PubMed

Garcés, Ana; McClure, Elizabeth M; Hambidge, Michael; Krebs, Nancy F; Mazariegos, Manolo; Wright, Linda L; Moore, Janet; Carlo, Waldemar A

2012-05-01

To evaluate the impact of birth attendant training using the World Health Organization Essential Newborn Care (ENC) course among traditional birth attendants, with a particular emphasis on the effect of acquisition of skills on perinatal outcomes. Population-based, prospective, interventional pre-post design study. 11 rural clusters in Chimaltenango, Guatemala. Health care providers. This study analyzed the effect of training and implementation of the ENC health care provider training course between September 2005 and December 2006. The primary outcome measure was the rate of death from all causes in the first seven days after birth in fetuses/infants ≥1500g. Secondary outcome measures were overall rate of stillbirth, rate of perinatal death, which included stillbirths plus neonatal deaths in the first seven days in fetuses/infants ≥1500g. Perinatal mortality decreased from 39.5/1000 pre-ENC to 26.4 post-ENC (RR 0.72; 95%CI 0.54-0.97). This reduction was attributable almost entirely to a decrease in the stillbirth rate of 21.4/1000 pre-Essential Newborn Care to 7.9/1000 post-ENC (RR 0.40; 95%CI 0.25-0.64). Seven-day neonatal mortality did not decrease (18.3/1000 to 18.6/1000; RR 1.05; 95%CI 0.70-1.57). Essential Newborn Care training reduced stillbirths in a population-based controlled study with deliveries conducted almost exclusively by traditional birth attendants. Scale-up of this intervention in other settings might help assess reproducibility and sustainability. © Published [2012]. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica© 2012 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

U.S. motor vehicle fatality trends in young Latino males.

PubMed

Vaca, Federico; Anderson, Craig L

2009-10-01

The Latino Epidemiologic Paradox describes favorable health profiles for Latinos compared to non-Latino Whites (NLW) despite poverty, low education, and low access to health care. An anomaly to this paradox is increased mortality of Latino adolescent and emerging adult males. Previous research shows motor vehicle crash fatalities bear a considerable proportion of the mortality burden attributed to this anomaly. Utilizing two U.S. data sources (CDC-WISQARS and NHTSA-FARS), graphical and linear regression methods were used to analyze crash fatality trends and changes in factors that influence crash injury fatality among young Latino males age 15-24. During 1999-2006, 59,719 motor vehicle fatalities occurred among Latino, NLW and Non-Latino Black (NLB) young males. Fatality rates were 37.7, 39.6, and 29.8 per 100,000 population/year for Latinos, NLW and NLB respectively. Over the study period, young Latino male mortality rates increased 27%. By 2006, fatality rates were 41.9, 38.3 and 27.8 per 100,000 population/year for Latinos, NLW and NLB respectively. Among driver fatalities, 43% Latino, 33% NLW and 27% NLB were restrained. Fifty-seven percent of Latino drivers had blood alcohol >or=0.01 g/dl (BAC+), as did 47% of NLW drivers and 42% of NLB drivers. Over the study period, BAC+ changed little among Latinos and NLW drivers but decreased among NLB drivers. Motor vehicle fatality rates for young Latino males are rising despite increasing restraint use and leveling driver BAC+. Without racial/ethnic specific exposure data, limitations exist in discerning the cause of diverging fatality trends and further understanding specific racial/ethnic group crash fatality disparities.

Linking behavior, physiology, and survival of Atlantic Salmon smolts during estuary migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stich, Daniel S.; Zydlewski, Gayle B.; Kocik, John F.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2015-01-01

Decreased marine survival is identified as a component driver of continued declines of Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar. However, estimates of marine mortality often incorporate loss incurred during estuary migration that may be mechanistically distinct from factors affecting marine mortality. We examined movements and survival of 941 smolts (141 wild and 800 hatchery-reared fish) released in freshwater during passage through the Penobscot River estuary, Maine, from 2005 to 2013. We related trends in estuary arrival date, movement rate, and survival to fish characteristics, migratory history, and environmental conditions in the estuary. Fish that experienced the warmest thermal history arrived in the estuary 8 d earlier than those experiencing the coolest thermal history during development. Estuary arrival date was 10 d later for fish experiencing high flow than for fish experiencing low flow. Fish released furthest upstream arrived in the estuary 3 d later than those stocked further downstream but moved 0.5 km/h faster through the estuary. Temporally, movement rate and survival in the estuary both peaked in mid-May. Spatially, movement rate and survival both decreased from freshwater to the ocean. Wild smolts arrived in the estuary later than hatchery fish, but we observed no change in movement rate or survival attributable to rearing history. Fish with the highest gill Na+, K+-ATPase activity incurred 25% lower mortality through the estuary than fish with the lowest gill Na+, K+-ATPase activity. Smolt survival decreased (by up to 40%) with the increasing number of dams passed (ranging from two to nine) during freshwater migration. These results underscore the importance of physiological preparedness on performance and the delayed, indirect effects of dams on survival of Atlantic Salmon smolts during estuary migration, ultimately affecting marine survival estimates.

Perianesthetic and Anesthesia-Related Mortality in a Southeastern United States Population: A Longitudinal Review of a Prospectively Collected Quality Assurance Data Base.

PubMed

Pollard, Richard J; Hopkins, Thomas; Smith, C Tyler; May, Bryan V; Doyle, James; Chambers, C Labron; Clark, Reese; Buhrman, William

2018-05-21

Perianesthetic mortality (death occurring within 48 hours of an anesthetic) continues to vary widely depending on the study population examined. The authors study in a private practice physician group that covers multiple anesthetizing locations in the Southeastern United States. This group has in place a robust quality assurance (QA) database to follow all patients undergoing anesthesia. With this study, we estimate the incidence of anesthesia-related and perianesthetic mortality in this QA database. Following institutional review board approval, data from 2011 to 2016 were obtained from the QA database of a large, community-based anesthesiology group practice. The physician practice covers 233 anesthetizing locations across 20 facilities in 2 US states. All detected cases of perianesthetic death were extracted from the database and compared to the patients' electronic medical record. These cases were further examined by a committee of 3 anesthesiologists to determine whether the death was anesthesia related (a perioperative death solely attributable to either the anesthesia provider or anesthetic technique), anesthetic contributory (a perioperative death in which anesthesia role could not be entirely excluded), or not due to anesthesia. A total of 785,467 anesthesia procedures were examined from the study period. A total of 592 cases of perianesthetic deaths were detected, giving an overall death rate of 75.37 in 100,000 cases (95% CI, 69.5-81.7). Mortality judged to be anesthesia related was found in 4 cases, giving a mortality rate of 0.509 in 100,000 (95% CI, 0.198-1.31). Mortality judged to be anesthesia contributory were found in 18 cases, giving a mortality of 2.29 in 100,000 patients (95% CI, 1.45-3.7). A total of 570 cases were judged to be nonanesthesia related, giving an incidence of 72.6 per 100,000 anesthetics (95% CI, 69.3-75.7). In a large, comprehensive database representing the full range of anesthesia practices and locations in the Southeastern United States, the rate of perianesthestic death was 0.509 in 100,000 (95% CI, 0.198-1.31). Future in-depth analysis of the epidemiology of perianesthetic deaths will be reported in later studies.

The population attributable fraction of low education for mortality in South Korea with improvement in educational attainment and no improvement in mortality inequalities.

PubMed

Lim, Dohee; Kong, Kyoung Ae; Lee, Hye Ah; Lee, Won Kyung; Park, Su Hyun; Baik, Sun Jung; Park, Hyesook; Jung-Choi, Kyunghee

2015-03-31

The educational attainment of Koreans has greatly increased, which was expected to reduce the magnitude of the population attributable fraction (PAF) of mortality associated with low education levels. However, increase in the relative risk (RR) of mortality among those with lower educational levels actually increased the PAF. The purpose of this study was to examine the change in the PAF of lower educational levels for mortality in Korea, where educational attainment has improved and is associated with the exacerbation of inequalities in mortality levels. National census data were used to derive educational levels. The mortality-associated RR of lower educational levels was calculated by reference to national census and death certificate data from 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. PAFs were calculated for all-cause mortality, malignant neoplasms, cerebrovascular disease, heart disease, and suicide by gender and age group (30-44 and 45-59 years). The PAF of low educational level in terms of total mortality has decreased since 1995 in both genders. This trend was more prominent among those aged 30-44 years. However, the PAFs of suicide in younger females (30-44 years) and of cerebrovascular disease in older males (45-59 years) have increased. The RRs of all-cause mortality and those of the four leading causes of death in those with the lowest educational levels have increased, especially in females aged 30-44 years. The consistent and sharp increase in the attainment of education has contributed to the reduction in the PAFs of lower education for mortality, despite the fact that mortality inequalities have not improved. Efforts to reduce health inequalities must promote healthy public policy and address public health policies.

Alanine aminotransferase and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-38).

PubMed

Deetman, Petronella E; Alkhalaf, Alaa; Landman, Gijs W D; Groenier, Klaas H; Kootstra-Ros, Jenny E; Navis, Gerjan; Bilo, Henk J G; Kleefstra, Nanne; Bakker, Stephan J L

2015-08-01

Combined data suggest a bimodal association of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) with mortality in the general population. Little is known about the association of ALT with mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. We therefore investigated the association of ALT with all-cause, cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. A prospective study was performed in patients with type 2 diabetes, treated in primary care, participating in the Zwolle Outpatient Diabetes project Integrating Available Care (ZODIAC) study. Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the associations of log2 -transformed baseline ALT with all-cause, cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. In 1187 patients with type 2 diabetes (67 ± 12 years, 45% female), ALT levels were 11 (8-16) U/L. During median follow-up for 11.1 (6.1-14.0) years, 553 (47%) patients died, with 238 (20%) attributable to cardiovascular causes. Overall, ALT was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-0.92), independently of potential confounders. This was less attributable to cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.72-1.05), than to noncardiovascular mortality (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.65-0.90). Despite the overall inverse association of ALT with mortality, it appeared that a bimodal association with all-cause mortality was present with increasing risk for levels of ALT above normal (P = 0.003). In patients with type 2 diabetes, low levels of ALT are associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, in particular noncardiovascular mortality, compared to normal levels of ALT, while risk again starts to increase when levels are above normal. © 2015 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang

Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributablemore » to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.« less

Incidence, clinical features, and implications on outcomes of neonatal late-onset sepsis with concurrent infectious focus.

PubMed

Wu, I-Hsyuan; Tsai, Ming-Horng; Lai, Mei-Yin; Hsu, Lee-Fen; Chiang, Ming-Chou; Lien, Reyin; Fu, Ren-Huei; Huang, Hsuan-Rong; Chu, Shih-Ming; Hsu, Jen-Fu

2017-07-03

Neonatal bloodstream infection (BSI) is the most important cause of morbidity and mortality in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Although most neonatal BSIs are primary bacteremia, some are associated with a focus of infection. This distinction is not well characterized. All patients with neonatal late-onset sepsis (LOS) between January 2006 and December 2013 were enrolled. LOS was categorized as a BSI with a concurrent focus of infection if LOS occurred before or within 24 h after the diagnosis of a specific infectious entity, and as "primary bacteremia" if no concurrent focus of infection was identified. Data concerning demographics, hospital course, microbiology, and outcomes were compared via univariate and multivariate analyses. Of 948 episodes of neonatal LOS, 781 (82.4%) were primary bacteremia, whereas 167 (17.6%) were associated with a known focus of infection, including meningitis (n = 51, 5.4%), ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) (n = 36, 3.8%), catheter-related bloodstream infections (n = 57, 6.0%), and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) (n = 21, 2.2%). The majority of NEC-associated BSIs were caused by gram-negative bacilli (85.7%). Group B streptococcus accounted for nearly one-third of all meningitis cases (29.4%). Although sepsis-attributable mortality was comparable between primary bacteremia and neonatal BSIs with a focus of infection, neonatal BSIs with meningitis, VAP, and NEC had significantly higher rates of infectious complications. The independent risk factors of sepsis-attributable mortality were infectious complications (Odds ratio [OR] 6.98; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.64-13.39, P < 0.001); history of one or more than one previous episode(s) of BSI (OR 2.40 and 7.40; 95% CI 1.21-4.74 and 3.70-14.78, P = 0.012 and <0.001, respectively); and underlying secondary pulmonary hypertension in neonates (OR 4.77; 95% CI 1.91-11.96, P = 0.001). A considerable proportion of neonatal LOS can be associated with known infectious foci in the NICU. The microbiologic etiology of neonatal LOS with a concurrent focus of infection is significantly different from that of primary bacteremia. Neonatal BSIs with concurrent meningitis, VAP, or NEC are significantly more likely to have infectious complications. This association independently leads to sepsis-attributable mortality.

The impact of dietary habits and metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular and diabetes mortality in countries of the Middle East and North Africa in 2010: a comparative risk assessment analysis.

PubMed

Afshin, Ashkan; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Fahimi, Saman; Shi, Peilin; Powles, John; Singh, Gitanjali; Yakoob, Mohammad Yawar; Abdollahi, Morteza; Al-Hooti, Suad; Farzadfar, Farshad; Houshiar-Rad, Anahita; Hwalla, Nahla; Koksal, Eda; Musaiger, Abdulrahman; Pekcan, Gulden; Sibai, Abla Mehio; Zaghloul, Sahar; Danaei, Goodarz; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2015-05-20

We conducted a comparative risk assessment analysis to estimate the cardiometabolic disease (CMD) mortality attributable to 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors in 20 countries of the Middle East by age, sex and time. The national exposure distributions were obtained from a systematic search of multiple databases. Missing exposure data were estimated using a multilevel Bayesian hierarchical model. The aetiological effect of each risk factor on disease-specific mortality was obtained from clinical trials and observational studies. The number of disease-specific deaths was obtained from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease mortality database. Mortality due to each risk factor was determined using the population attributable fraction and total number of disease-specific deaths. Adult population in the Middle East by age, sex, country and time. Suboptimal diet was the leading risk factor for CMD mortality in 11 countries accounting for 48% (in Morocco) to 72% (in the United Arab Emirates) of CMD deaths. Non-optimal systolic blood pressure was the leading risk factor for CMD deaths in eight countries causing 45% (in Bahrain) to 68% (in Libya) of CMD deaths. Non-optimal body mass index and fasting plasma glucose were the third and fourth leading risk factors for CMD mortality in most countries. Among individual dietary factors, low intake of fruits accounted for 8% (in Jordan) to 21% (in Palestine) of CMD deaths and low intake of whole grains was responsible for 7% (in Palestine) to 22% (in the United Arab Emirates) of CMD deaths. Between 1990 and 2010, the CMD mortality attributable to most risk factors had decreased except for body mass index and trans-fatty acids. Our findings highlight key similarities and differences in the impact of the dietary and metabolic risk factors on CMD mortality in the countries of the Middle East and inform priorities for policy measures to prevent CMD. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The impact of dietary habits and metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular and diabetes mortality in countries of the Middle East and North Africa in 2010: a comparative risk assessment analysis

PubMed Central

Afshin, Ashkan; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Fahimi, Saman; Shi, Peilin; Powles, John; Singh, Gitanjali; Yakoob, Mohammad Yawar; Abdollahi, Morteza; Al-Hooti, Suad; Farzadfar, Farshad; Houshiar-rad, Anahita; Hwalla, Nahla; Koksal, Eda; Musaiger, Abdulrahman; Pekcan, Gulden; Sibai, Abla Mehio; Zaghloul, Sahar; Danaei, Goodarz; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2015-01-01

Objective/design We conducted a comparative risk assessment analysis to estimate the cardiometabolic disease (CMD) mortality attributable to 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors in 20 countries of the Middle East by age, sex and time. The national exposure distributions were obtained from a systematic search of multiple databases. Missing exposure data were estimated using a multilevel Bayesian hierarchical model. The aetiological effect of each risk factor on disease-specific mortality was obtained from clinical trials and observational studies. The number of disease-specific deaths was obtained from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease mortality database. Mortality due to each risk factor was determined using the population attributable fraction and total number of disease-specific deaths. Setting/population Adult population in the Middle East by age, sex, country and time. Results Suboptimal diet was the leading risk factor for CMD mortality in 11 countries accounting for 48% (in Morocco) to 72% (in the United Arab Emirates) of CMD deaths. Non-optimal systolic blood pressure was the leading risk factor for CMD deaths in eight countries causing 45% (in Bahrain) to 68% (in Libya) of CMD deaths. Non-optimal body mass index and fasting plasma glucose were the third and fourth leading risk factors for CMD mortality in most countries. Among individual dietary factors, low intake of fruits accounted for 8% (in Jordan) to 21% (in Palestine) of CMD deaths and low intake of whole grains was responsible for 7% (in Palestine) to 22% (in the United Arab Emirates) of CMD deaths. Between 1990 and 2010, the CMD mortality attributable to most risk factors had decreased except for body mass index and trans-fatty acids. Conclusions Our findings highlight key similarities and differences in the impact of the dietary and metabolic risk factors on CMD mortality in the countries of the Middle East and inform priorities for policy measures to prevent CMD. PMID:25995236