Child mortality after Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Kanter, Robert K

2010-03-01

Age-specific pediatric health consequences of community disruption after Hurricane Katrina have not been analyzed. Post-Katrina vital statistics are unavailable. The objectives of this study were to validate an alternative method to estimate child mortality rates in the greater New Orleans area and compare pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates. Pre-Katrina 2004 child mortality was estimated from death reports in the local daily newspaper and validated by comparison with pre-Katrina data from the Louisiana Department of Health. Post-Katrina child mortality rates were analyzed as a measure of health consequences. Newspaper-derived estimates of mortality rates appear to be valid except for possible underreporting of neonatal rates. Pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates were similar for all age groups except infants. Post-Katrina, a 92% decline in mortality rate occurred for neonates (<28 days), and a 57% decline in mortality rate occurred for postneonatal infants (28 days-1 year). The post-Katrina decline in infant mortality rate exceeds the pre-Katrina discrepancy between newspaper-derived and Department of Health-reported rates. A declining infant mortality rate raises questions about persistent displacement of high-risk infants out of the region. Otherwise, there is no evidence of long-lasting post-Katrina excess child mortality. Further investigation of demographic changes would be of interest to local decision makers and planners for recovery after public health emergencies in other regions.

Chronic Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Mountaintop Mining Areas of Central Appalachian States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esch, Laura; Hendryx, Michael

2011-01-01

Purpose: To determine if chronic cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates are higher among residents of mountaintop mining (MTM) areas compared to mining and nonmining areas, and to examine the association between greater levels of MTM surface mining and CVD mortality. Methods: Age-adjusted chronic CVD mortality rates from 1999 to 2006 for…

Estimating influenza and respiratory syncytial virus-associated mortality in Western Kenya using health and demographic surveillance system data, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Emukule, Gideon O; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Chaves, Sandra S; Mott, Joshua A; Tempia, Stefano; Bigogo, Godfrey; Nyawanda, Bryan; Nyaguara, Amek; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; van der Velden, Koos; Paget, John W

2017-01-01

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated mortality has not been well-established in tropical Africa. We used the negative binomial regression method and the rate-difference method (i.e. deaths during low and high influenza/RSV activity months), to estimate excess mortality attributable to influenza and RSV using verbal autopsy data collected through a health and demographic surveillance system in Western Kenya, 2007-2013. Excess mortality rates were calculated for a) all-cause mortality, b) respiratory deaths (including pneumonia), c) HIV-related deaths, and d) pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) related deaths. Using the negative binomial regression method, the mean annual all-cause excess mortality rate associated with influenza and RSV was 14.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0-93.3) and 17.1 (95% CI 0.0-111.5) per 100,000 person-years (PY) respectively; and 10.5 (95% CI 0.0-28.5) and 7.3 (95% CI 0.0-27.3) per 100,000 PY for respiratory deaths, respectively. Highest mortality rates associated with influenza were among ≥50 years, particularly among persons with TB (41.6[95% CI 0.0-122.7]); and with RSV were among <5 years. Using the rate-difference method, the excess mortality rate for influenza and RSV was 44.8 (95% CI 36.8-54.4) and 19.7 (95% CI 14.7-26.5) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for all-cause deaths; and 9.6 (95% CI 6.3-14.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.9-11.0) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for respiratory deaths. Our study shows a substantial excess mortality associated with influenza and RSV in Western Kenya, especially among children <5 years and older persons with TB, supporting recommendations for influenza vaccination and efforts to develop RSV vaccines.

Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

PubMed

Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

2018-04-01

Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

Suicide mortality rates in Louisiana, 1999-2010.

PubMed

Straif-Bourgeois, Susanne; Ratard, Raoult

2012-01-01

This report is a descriptive study on suicide deaths in Louisiana occurring in the years 1999 to 2010. Mortality data was collected from death certificates from this 12-year period to describe suicide mortality by year, race, sex, age group, and methods of suicide. Data were also compared to national data. Rates and methods used to commit suicide vary greatly according to sex, race, and age. The highest rates were observed in white males, followed by black males, white females, and black females. Older white males had the highest suicide rates. The influence of age was modulated by the sex and race categories. Firearm was the most common method used in all four categories. Other less common methods were hanging/strangulation/suffocation (HSS) and drugs/alcohol. Although no parish-level data were systematically analyzed, a comparison of suicide rates post-Katrina versus pre-Katrina was done for Orleans Parish, the rest of the Greater New Orleans area, and a comparison group. It appears that rates observed among whites, particularly males, were higher after Katrina. Data based on mortality do not give a comprehensive picture of the burden of suicide, and their interpretation should be done with caution.

Transforming geographic scale: a comparison of combined population and areal weighting to other interpolation methods.

PubMed

Hallisey, Elaine; Tai, Eric; Berens, Andrew; Wilt, Grete; Peipins, Lucy; Lewis, Brian; Graham, Shannon; Flanagan, Barry; Lunsford, Natasha Buchanan

2017-08-07

Transforming spatial data from one scale to another is a challenge in geographic analysis. As part of a larger, primary study to determine a possible association between travel barriers to pediatric cancer facilities and adolescent cancer mortality across the United States, we examined methods to estimate mortality within zones at varying distances from these facilities: (1) geographic centroid assignment, (2) population-weighted centroid assignment, (3) simple areal weighting, (4) combined population and areal weighting, and (5) geostatistical areal interpolation. For the primary study, we used county mortality counts from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population data by census tract for the United States to estimate zone mortality. In this paper, to evaluate the five mortality estimation methods, we employed address-level mortality data from the state of Georgia in conjunction with census data. Our objective here is to identify the simplest method that returns accurate mortality estimates. The distribution of Georgia county adolescent cancer mortality counts mirrors the Poisson distribution of the NCHS counts for the U.S. Likewise, zone value patterns, along with the error measures of hierarchy and fit, are similar for the state and the nation. Therefore, Georgia data are suitable for methods testing. The mean absolute value arithmetic differences between the observed counts for Georgia and the five methods were 5.50, 5.00, 4.17, 2.74, and 3.43, respectively. Comparing the methods through paired t-tests of absolute value arithmetic differences showed no statistical difference among the methods. However, we found a strong positive correlation (r = 0.63) between estimated Georgia mortality rates and combined weighting rates at zone level. Most importantly, Bland-Altman plots indicated acceptable agreement between paired arithmetic differences of Georgia rates and combined population and areal weighting rates. This research contributes to the literature on areal interpolation, demonstrating that combined population and areal weighting, compared to other tested methods, returns the most accurate estimates of mortality in transforming small counts by county to aggregated counts for large, non-standard study zones. This conceptually simple cartographic method should be of interest to public health practitioners and researchers limited to analysis of data for relatively large enumeration units.

Trends in the leading causes of injury mortality, Australia, Canada and the United States, 2000–2014

PubMed Central

Mack, Karin A.; Clapperton, Angela J.; Macpherson, Alison; Sleet, David; Newton, Donovan; Murdoch, James; Mackay, J. Morag; Berecki-Gisolf, Janneke; Wilkins, Wilkins; Marr, Angela; Ballesteros, Michael F.; McClure, Roderick

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to highlight the differences in injury rates between populations through a descriptive epidemiological study of population-level trends in injury mortality for the high-income countries of Australia, Canada and the United States. METHODS Mortality data were available for the US from 2000 to 2014, and for Canada and Australia from 2000 to 2012. Injury causes were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision external cause codes, and were grouped into major causes. Rates were direct-method age-adjusted using the US 2000 projected population as the standard age distribution. RESULTS US motor vehicle injury mortality rates declined from 2000 to 2014 but remained markedly higher than those of Australia or Canada. In all three countries, fall injury mortality rates increased from 2000 to 2014. US homicide mortality rates declined, but remained higher than those of Australia and Canada. While the US had the lowest suicide rate in 2000, it increased by 24% during 2000–2014, and by 2012 was about 14% higher than that in Australia and Canada. The poisoning mortality rate in the US increased dramatically from 2000 to 2014. CONCLUSION Results show marked differences and striking similarities in injury mortality between the countries and within countries over time. The observed trends differed by injury cause category. The substantial differences in injury rates between similarly resourced populations raises important questions about the role of societal-level factors as underlying causes of the differential distribution of injury in our communities. PMID:28621655

Does Mortality Vary between Asian Subgroups in New Zealand: An Application of Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling

PubMed Central

Jatrana, Santosh; Richardson, Ken; Blakely, Tony; Dayal, Saira

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper was to see whether all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates vary between Asian ethnic subgroups, and whether overseas born Asian subgroup mortality rate ratios varied by nativity and duration of residence. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to allow for sparse data in the analysis of linked census-mortality data for 25–75 year old New Zealanders. We found directly standardised posterior all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were highest for the Indian ethnic group, significantly so when compared with those of Chinese ethnicity. In contrast, cancer mortality rates were lowest for ethnic Indians. Asian overseas born subgroups have about 70% of the mortality rate of their New Zealand born Asian counterparts, a result that showed little variation by Asian subgroup or cause of death. Within the overseas born population, all-cause mortality rates for migrants living 0–9 years in New Zealand were about 60% of the mortality rate of those living more than 25 years in New Zealand regardless of ethnicity. The corresponding figure for cardiovascular mortality rates was 50%. However, while Chinese cancer mortality rates increased with duration of residence, Indian and Other Asian cancer mortality rates did not. Future research on the mechanisms of worsening of health with increased time spent in the host country is required to improve the understanding of the process, and would assist the policy-makers and health planners. PMID:25140523

Infant Mortality Trends and Differences Between American Indian/Alaska Native Infants and White Infants in the United States, 1989–1991 and 1998–2000

PubMed Central

Tomashek, Kay M.; Qin, Cheng; Hsia, Jason; Iyasu, Solomon; Barfield, Wanda D.; Flowers, Lisa M.

2006-01-01

Objectives. To describe changes in infant mortality rates, including birthweight-specific rates and rates by age at death and cause. Methods. We analyzed US linked birth/infant-death data for 1989–1991 and 1998–2000 for American Indians/Alaska Native (AIAN) and White singleton infants at ≥20 weeks’ gestation born to US residents. We calculated birthweight-specific infant mortality rates (deaths in each birthweight category per 1000 live births in that category), and overall and cause-specific infant mortality rates (deaths per 100000 live births) in infancy (0–364 days) and in the neonatal (0–27 days) and postneonatal (28–364 days) periods. Results. Birthweight-specific infant mortality rates declined among AIAN and White infants across all birthweight categories, but AIAN infants generally had higher birthweight-specific infant mortality rates. Infant mortality rates declined for both groups, yet in 1998–2000, AIAN infants were still 1.7 times more likely to die than White infants. Most of the disparity was because of elevated post-neonatal mortality, especially from sudden infant death syndrome, accidents, and pneumonia and influenza. Conclusions. Although birthweight-specific infant mortality rates and infant mortality rates declined among both AIAN and White infants, disparities in infant mortality persist. Preventable causes of infant mortality identified in this analysis should be targeted to reduce excess deaths among AIAN communities. PMID:17077400

[A rank-order method for the integrated assessment of trends in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates in the subjects of the Russian Federation in 2006-2012].

PubMed

Artamonova, G V; Maksimov, S A; Tabakaev, M V; Barbarash, L S

2016-01-01

To rank the subjects of the Russian Federation by the trend direction in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (including mortality from coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases) as a whole and at able-bodied age. The investigation used mortality rates from to the 2006 and 2012 data available in the Federal State Statistics Service on 81 subjects of the Russian Federation. According to mortality rates, each region was assigned a rank in 2006 and 2012. Trends in rank changes in the Russian Federation's regions were analyzed. A cluster analysis was used to group the subjects of the Russian Federation by trends in rank changes. The cluster analysis of rank changes from 2006 to 2012 could combine the Russian Federation's regions into 10 groups showing the similar trends in all-cause and circulatory disease mortality rates. Overall, the results of the ranking and further clusterization of the regions of the Russian Federation correspond to the trends in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates according to the data of other Russian investigations, by qualitatively complementing them. The trend rank-order method permits a comprehensive comparative analysis of changes in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the subjects of the Russian Federation both as a whole and at able-bodied age, which provides qualitatively new information complementing the universally accepted approaches to studying the population's mortality.

Progression of Mortality due to Diseases of the Circulatory System and Human Development Index in Rio de Janeiro Municipalities

PubMed Central

Soares, Gabriel Porto; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Silva, Nelson Albuquerque de Souza e; de Oliveira, Glaucia Maria Moraes

2016-01-01

Background Diseases of the circulatory system (DCS) are the major cause of death in Brazil and worldwide. Objective To correlate the compensated and adjusted mortality rates due to DCS in the Rio de Janeiro State municipalities between 1979 and 2010 with the Human Development Index (HDI) from 1970 onwards. Methods Population and death data were obtained in DATASUS/MS database. Mortality rates due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD), cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD) and DCS adjusted by using the direct method and compensated for ill-defined causes. The HDI data were obtained at the Brazilian Institute of Applied Research in Economics. The mortality rates and HDI values were correlated by estimating Pearson linear coefficients. The correlation coefficients between the mortality rates of census years 1991, 2000 and 2010 and HDI data of census years 1970, 1980 and 1991 were calculated with discrepancy of two demographic censuses. The linear regression coefficients were estimated with disease as the dependent variable and HDI as the independent variable. Results In recent decades, there was a reduction in mortality due to DCS in all Rio de Janeiro State municipalities, mainly because of the decline in mortality due to CBVD, which was preceded by an elevation in HDI. There was a strong correlation between the socioeconomic indicator and mortality rates. Conclusion The HDI progression showed a strong correlation with the decline in mortality due to DCS, signaling to the relevance of improvements in life conditions. PMID:27849263

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918–19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality. PMID:24996457

A Bayesian approach to assess heart disease mortality among persons with diabetes in the presence of missing data.

PubMed

Cadwell, Betsy L; Boyle, James P; Tierney, Edward F; Thompson, Theodore J

2007-09-01

Some states' death certificate form includes a diabetes yes/no check box that enables policy makers to investigate the change in heart disease mortality rates by diabetes status. Because the check boxes are sometimes unmarked, a method accounting for missing data is needed when estimating heart disease mortality rates by diabetes status. Using North Dakota's data (1992-2003), we generate the posterior distribution of diabetes status to estimate diabetes status among those with heart disease and an unmarked check box using Monte Carlo methods. Combining this estimate with the number of death certificates with known diabetes status provides a numerator for heart disease mortality rates. Denominators for rates were estimated from the North Dakota Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Accounting for missing data, age-adjusted heart disease mortality rates (per 1,000) among women with diabetes were 8.6 during 1992-1998 and 6.7 during 1999-2003. Among men with diabetes, rates were 13.0 during 1992-1998 and 10.0 during 1999-2003. The Bayesian approach accounted for the uncertainty due to missing diabetes status as well as the uncertainty in estimating the populations with diabetes.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María Del Pilar

2017-03-09

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

PubMed

Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

2017-03-15

In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.

PubMed

Vaupel, J W; Manton, K G; Stallard, E

1979-08-01

Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men.

PubMed

Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-12-05

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): -3.1 (95% CI, -4.6 to -1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC -2.4 (95% CI -2.7 to -2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC -2.5 (95% CI -4.1 to -0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC -5.2 (95% CI -5.7 to -4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): -3.3 (95% CI -4.7 to -1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates.

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men

PubMed Central

Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-01-01

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984–2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): −3.1 (95% CI, −4.6 to −1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC −2.4 (95% CI −2.7 to −2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC −2.5 (95% CI −4.1 to −0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC −5.2 (95% CI −5.7 to −4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): −3.3 (95% CI −4.7 to −1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates. PMID:27929405

Estimating survival probabilities by exposure levels: utilizing vital statistics and complex survey data with mortality follow-up.

PubMed

Landsman, V; Lou, W Y W; Graubard, B I

2015-05-20

We present a two-step approach for estimating hazard rates and, consequently, survival probabilities, by levels of general categorical exposure. The resulting estimator utilizes three sources of data: vital statistics data and census data are used at the first step to estimate the overall hazard rate for a given combination of gender and age group, and cohort data constructed from a nationally representative complex survey with linked mortality records, are used at the second step to divide the overall hazard rate by exposure levels. We present an explicit expression for the resulting estimator and consider two methods for variance estimation that account for complex multistage sample design: (1) the leaving-one-out jackknife method, and (2) the Taylor linearization method, which provides an analytic formula for the variance estimator. The methods are illustrated with smoking and all-cause mortality data from the US National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, and the proposed estimator is compared with a previously studied crude hazard rate estimator that uses survey data only. The advantages of a two-step approach and possible extensions of the proposed estimator are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Rural Inpatient Mortality Study: Does Urban-Rural County Classification Predict Hospital Mortality in California?

PubMed

Linnen, Daniel T; Kornak, John; Stephens, Caroline

2018-03-28

Evidence suggests an association between rurality and decreased life expectancy. To determine whether rural hospitals have higher hospital mortality, given that very sick patients may be transferred to regional hospitals. In this ecologic study, we combined Medicare hospital mortality ratings (N = 1267) with US census data, critical access hospital classification, and National Center for Health Statistics urban-rural county classifications. Ratings included mortality for coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart attack, heart failure, and pneumonia across 277 California hospitals between July 2011 and June 2014. We used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the association of urban-rural county classifications on mortality ratings. Unfavorable Medicare hospital mortality rating "worse than the national rate" compared with "better" or "same." Compared with large central "metro" (metropolitan) counties, hospitals in medium-sized metro counties had 6.4 times the odds of rating "worse than the national rate" for hospital mortality (95% confidence interval = 2.8-14.8, p < 0.001). For hospitals in small metro counties, the odds of having such a rating were 3.7 times greater (95% confidence interval = 0.7-23.4, p = 0.12), although not statistically significant. Few ratings were provided for rural counties, and analysis of rural counties was underpowered. Hospitals in medium-sized metro counties are associated with unfavorable Medicare mortality ratings, but current methods to assign mortality ratings may hinder fair comparisons. Patient transfers from rural locations to regional medical centers may contribute to these results, a potential factor that future research should examine.

Comparing two survey methods for estimating maternal and perinatal mortality in rural Cambodia.

PubMed

Chandy, Hoeuy; Heng, Yang Van; Samol, Ha; Husum, Hans

2008-03-01

We need solid estimates of maternal mortality rates (MMR) to monitor the impact of maternal care programs. Cambodian health authorities and WHO report the MMR in Cambodia at 450 per 100,000 live births. The figure is drawn from surveys where information is obtained by interviewing respondents about the survival of all their adult sisters (sisterhood method). The estimate is statistically imprecise, 95% confidence intervals ranging from 260 to 620/100,000. The MMR estimate is also uncertain due to under-reporting; where 80-90% of women deliver at home maternal fatalities may go undetected especially where mortality is highest, in remote rural areas. The aim of this study was to attain more reliable MMR estimates by using survey methods other than the sisterhood method prior to an intervention targeting obstetric rural emergencies. The study was carried out in rural Northwestern Cambodia where access to health services is poor and poverty, endemic diseases, and land mines are endemic. Two survey methods were applied in two separate sectors: a community-based survey gathering data from public sources and a household survey gathering data direct from primary sources. There was no statistically significant difference between the two survey results for maternal deaths, both types of survey reported mortality rates around the public figure. The household survey reported a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate as compared to the community-based survey, 8.6% versus 5.0%. Also the household survey gave qualitative data important for a better understanding of the many problems faced by mothers giving birth in the remote villages. There are detection failures in both surveys; the failure rate may be as high as 30-40%. PRINCIPLE CONCLUSION: Both survey methods are inaccurate, therefore inappropriate for evaluation of short-term changes of mortality rates. Surveys based on primary informants yield qualitative information about mothers' hardships important for the design of future maternal care interventions.

Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil

PubMed Central

de Souza Giusti, Angela Carolina Brandão; de Oliveira Salvador, Pétala Tuani Candido; dos Santos, Juliano; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Camacho, Amanda Rodrigues; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Souza, Dyego L B

2016-01-01

AIM: To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. METHODS: An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. RESULTS: Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980’s, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000’s, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. CONCLUSION: Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates. PMID:27605887

Infant mortality by color or race from Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Gava, Caroline; Cardoso, Andrey Moreira; Basta, Paulo Cesar

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the quality of records for live births and infant deaths and to estimate the infant mortality rate for skin color or race, in order to explore possible racial inequalities in health. METHODS Descriptive study that analyzed the quality of records of the Live Births Information System and Mortality Information System in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazonian, between 2006-2009. The infant mortality rates were estimated for skin color or race with the direct method and corrected by: (1) proportional distribution of deaths with missing data related to skin color or race; and (2) application of correction factors. We also calculated proportional mortality by causes and age groups. RESULTS The capture of live births and deaths improved in relation to 2006-2007, which required lower correction factors to estimate infant mortality rate. The risk of death of indigenous infant (31.3/1,000 live births) was higher than that noted for the other skin color or race groups, exceeding by 60% the infant mortality rate in Rondônia (19.9/1,000 live births). Black children had the highest neonatal infant mortality rate, while the indigenous had the highest post-neonatal infant mortality rate. Among the indigenous deaths, 15.2% were due to ill-defined causes, while the other groups did not exceed 5.4%. The proportional infant mortality due to infectious and parasitic diseases was higher among indigenous children (12.1%), while among black children it occurred due to external causes (8.7%). CONCLUSIONS Expressive inequalities in infant mortality were noted between skin color or race categories, more unfavorable for indigenous infants. Correction factors proposed in the literature lack to consider differences in underreporting of deaths for skin color or race. The specific correction among the color or race categories would likely result in exacerbation of the observed inequalities. PMID:28423134

[Epidemiologic aspects of bronchial asthma in the Mexican Republic].

PubMed

Martínez-Cairo Cueto, S; Salas-Ramírez, M; Segura-Méndez, N H

1995-01-01

This work was done to determine the mortality and morbidity rates secondary to asthma in Mexico, for age, gender, state of the country and time. Data were obtained from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Geografía e Informática. We calculated morbidity and mortality rates adjusting for age, by a direct method. In the results, there was a reduction in mortality rate in both genders, from 1960 to 1987. Age groups up to 4 years and older than 50 were the mainly affected. From 1960 to the present time, the state with highest mortality is Tlaxcala. The states with highest hospitalization rates were Morelos, Baja California Sur, Nuevo León, Durango and Tamaulipas. In conclusion, mortality rates secondary to asthma in Mexico show a decreasing trend, with a considerable rise in morbidity, especially in the adolescent group.

Tagging methods for estimating population size and mortality rates of inland striped bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hightower, Joseph E.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

2013-01-01

Striped bass Morone saxatilis in inland reservoirs play an important role ecologically and in supporting recreational fishing. To manage these populations, biologists need information about abundance and mortality. Abundance estimates can be used to assess the effectiveness of stocking programs that maintain most reservoir striped bass populations. Mortality estimates can indicate the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality and the need for harvest regulation. The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate tagging studies as a way of obtaining information about abundance and mortality. These approaches can be grouped into three broad categories: tag recapture, tag return, and telemetry. Tag-recapture methods are typically used to estimate population size and other demographic parameters but are often difficult to apply in large systems. A fishing tournament can be an effective way of generating tagging or recapture effort in large systems, compared to using research sampling only. Tag-return methods that rely on angler harvest and catch and release can be used to estimate fishing (F) and natural (M) mortality rates and are a practical approach in large reservoirs. The key to success in tag-return studies is to build in auxiliary studies to estimate short-term tagging mortality, short- and longterm tag loss, reporting rate, and mortality associated with catch and release. F and M can also be estimated using telemetry tags. Advantages of this approach are that angler nonreporting does not bias estimates and fish with transmitters provide useful ecological data. Cost can be a disadvantage of telemetry studies; thus, combining telemetry tags with conventional tag returns in an integrated analysis is often the optimal approach. In summary, tagging methods can be a powerful tool for assessing the effectiveness of inland striped bass stocking programs and the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality

Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, J.B.C.; Kirby, M.X.; Berger, W.H.; Bjorndal, K.A.; Botsford, L.W.; Bourque, B.J.; Bradbury, R.; Cooke, R.; Erlandson, J.; Estes, J.A.; Hughes, T.P.; Kidwell, S.; Lange, C.B.; Lenihan, H.S.; Pandolfi, J.M.; Peterson, C.H.; Steneck, R.S.; Tegner, M.J.; Warner, R.

2001-01-01

A method for calculating parameters necessary to maintain stable populations is described and the management implications of the method are discussed. This method depends upon knowledge of the population mortality rate schedule, the age at which the species reaches maturity, and recruitment rates or age ratios in the population. Four approaches are presented which yield information about the status of the population: (1) necessary production for a stable population, (2) allowable mortality for a stable population, (3) annual rate of change in population size, and (4) age ratios in the population which yield a stable condition. General formulas for these relationships, and formulas for several special cases, are presented. Tables are also presented showing production required to maintain a stable population with the simpler (more common) mortality and fecundity schedules.

Mortality from motorcycle crashes: the baby-boomer cohort effect.

PubMed

Puac-Polanco, Victor; Keyes, Katherine M; Li, Guohua

2016-12-01

Motorcyclists are known to be at substantially higher risk per mile traveled of dying from crashes than car occupants. In 2014, motorcycling made up less than 1 % of person-miles traveled but 13 % of the total mortality from motor-vehicle crashes in the United States. We assessed the cohort effect of the baby-boomers (i.e., those born between 1946 and 1964) in motorcycle crash mortality from 1975 to 2014 in the United States. Using mortality data for motorcycle occupants from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis using the multiphase method and the intrinsic estimator method. Baby-boomers experienced the highest mortality rates from motorcycle crashes at age 20-24 years and continued to experience excess mortality after age 40 years. After removing the effects of age and period, the estimated mortality risk from motorcycle crashes for baby-boomers was 48 % higher than that of the referent cohort (those born between 1930 and 1934, rate ratio 1.48; 95 % CI: 1.01, 2.18). Results from the multiphase method and the intrinsic estimator method were consistent. The baby-boomers have experienced significantly higher mortality from motorcycle crashes than other birth cohorts. To reduce motorcycle crash mortality, intervention programs specifically tailored for the baby-boomer generation are warranted.

Inequalities in health: living conditions and infant mortality in Northeastern Brazil

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Renata Alves da Silva; Santos, Victor Santana; de Melo, Cláudia Moura; Gurgel, Ricardo Queiroz; Oliveira, Cristiane Costa da Cunha

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze the variation of infant mortality as per condition of life in the urban setting. METHODS Ecological study performed with data regarding registered deaths of children under the age of one who resided in Aracaju, SE, Northeastern Brazil, from 2001 to 2010. Infant mortality inequalities were assessed based on the spatial distribution of the Living Conditions Index for each neighborhood, classified into four strata. The average mortality rates of 2001-2005 and 2006-2010 were compared using the Student’s t-test. RESULTS Average infant mortality rates decreased from 25.3 during 2001-2005 to 17.7 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2006-2010. Despite the decrease in the rates in all the strata during that decade, inequality of infant mortality risks increased in neighborhoods with worse living conditions compared with that in areas with better living conditions. CONCLUSIONS Infant mortality rates in Aracaju showed a decline, but with important differences among neighborhoods. The assessment based on a living condition perspective can explain the differences in the risks of infant mortality rates in urban areas, highlighting health inequalities in infant mortality as a multidimensional issue. PMID:25741650

Explaining low mortality among US immigrants relative to native-born Americans: the role of smoking.

PubMed

Blue, Laura; Fenelon, Andrew

2011-06-01

In many developed countries, immigrants live longer-that is, have lower death rates at most or all ages-than native-born residents. This article tests whether different levels of smoking-related mortality can explain part of the 'healthy immigrant effect' in the USA, as well as part of the related 'Hispanic paradox': the tendency for US Hispanics to outlive non-Hispanic Whites. With data from vital statistics and the national census, we calculate lung cancer death rates in 2000 for four US subpopulations: foreign-born, native-born, Hispanic and non-Hispanic White. We then use three different methods-the Peto-Lopez method, the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method and a novel method developed in this article-to generate three alternative estimates of smoking-related mortality for each of the four subpopulations, extrapolating from lung cancer death rates. We then measure the contribution of smoking-related mortality to disparities in all-cause mortality. Taking estimates from any of the three methods, we find that smoking explains >50% of the difference in life expectancy at 50 years between foreign- and native-born men, and >70% of the difference between foreign- and native-born women; smoking explains >75% of the difference in life expectancy at 50 years between US Hispanic and non-Hispanic White men, and close to 75% of the Hispanic advantage among women. Low smoking-related mortality was the main reason for immigrants' and Hispanics' longevity advantage in the USA in 2000.

Income Inequality in Non-communicable Diseases Mortality among the Regions of the Slovak Republic.

PubMed

Gavurová, Beáta; Kováč, Viliam; Šoltés, Michal; Kot, Sebastian; Majerník, Jaroslav

2017-12-01

A great amount of non-communicable disease deaths poses a threat for all people and therefore represents the challenge for health policy makers, health providers and other health or social policy actors. The aim of this study is to analyse regional differences in non-communicable disease mortality in the Slovak Republic, and to quantify the relationship between mortality and economic indicators of the Slovak regions. Standardised mortality rates adjusted for age, sex, region, and period were calculated applying direct standardisation methods with the European standard population covering the time span from 2005 to 2013. The impact of income indicators on standardised mortality rates was calculated using the panel regression models. The Bratislava region reaches the lowest values of standardised mortality rate for non-communicable diseases for both sexes. On the other side, the Nitra region has the highest standardised mortality rate for non-communicable diseases. Income quintile ratio has the highest effect on mortality, however, the expected positive impact is not confirmed. Gini coefficient at the 0.001 significance level and social benefits at the 0.01 significance level look like the most influencing variables on the standardised mortality rate. By addition of one percentage point of Gini coefficient, mortality rate increases by 148.19 units. When a share of population receiving social benefits increases by one percentage point, the standardised mortality rate will increase by 22.36 units. Non-communicable disease mortality together with income inequalities among the regions of the Slovak Republic highlight the importance of economic impact on population health. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017.

Does transport time help explain the high trauma mortality rates in rural areas? New and traditional predictors assessed by new and traditional statistical methods

PubMed Central

Røislien, Jo; Lossius, Hans Morten; Kristiansen, Thomas

2015-01-01

Background Trauma is a leading global cause of death. Trauma mortality rates are higher in rural areas, constituting a challenge for quality and equality in trauma care. The aim of the study was to explore population density and transport time to hospital care as possible predictors of geographical differences in mortality rates, and to what extent choice of statistical method might affect the analytical results and accompanying clinical conclusions. Methods Using data from the Norwegian Cause of Death registry, deaths from external causes 1998–2007 were analysed. Norway consists of 434 municipalities, and municipality population density and travel time to hospital care were entered as predictors of municipality mortality rates in univariate and multiple regression models of increasing model complexity. We fitted linear regression models with continuous and categorised predictors, as well as piecewise linear and generalised additive models (GAMs). Models were compared using Akaike's information criterion (AIC). Results Population density was an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates, while the contribution of transport time to hospital care was highly dependent on choice of statistical model. A multiple GAM or piecewise linear model was superior, and similar, in terms of AIC. However, while transport time was statistically significant in multiple models with piecewise linear or categorised predictors, it was not in GAM or standard linear regression. Conclusions Population density is an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates. The added explanatory value of transport time to hospital care is marginal and model-dependent, highlighting the importance of exploring several statistical models when studying complex associations in observational data. PMID:25972600

Socioeconomic factors and cervical cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1989-1997.

PubMed

Morales Suarez-Varela, M M; Jiménez-López, M C; Llópis-González, A

2004-01-01

A study was made of cervical cancer (CC) mortality trends in Spain during the period 1989-1997 at National, Autonomous Community and Provincial levels, in relation to different socioeconomic factors. Data were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, INE). The crude mortality rates were age-adjusted using the indirect method and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as socioeconomic status (SES) indicator. National CC age-adjusted mortality rates have increasing slightly, varying from 3.09 deaths/100000 women in 1989 to 3.42 in 1996. The highest age-adjusted mortality rates corresponded to Seville, Palencia and Orense, with 4.13, 4.06 and 3.98 cases/100000 women, respectively. The lowest mortality rates were found in Las Palmas, Cantabria and Alicante with 2.63, 2.77 and 2.80 deaths/100000 women, respectively. A relative risk (RR) of 1.14 (95%CI: 0.98-1.32) ( P=0.048) was observed between the provinces with the lowest SES and highest mortality rate, and those with the highest SES and lowest mortality rate. The results of our study show a slight increasing trend in CC mortality rates in Spain during the period 1989-1997, and suggest that the variations among provinces and Autonomous Communities could be due to CC risk factors (SES related to human papillomavirus, parity, diet, etc.) and differences in early diagnosis.

ASSESSMENT OF THE RATES OF INJURY AND MORTALITY IN WATERFOWL CAPTURED WITH FIVE METHODS OF CAPTURE AND TECHNIQUES FOR MINIMIZING RISKS.

PubMed

O'Brien, Michelle F; Lee, Rebecca; Cromie, Ruth; Brown, Martin J

2016-04-01

Swan pipes, duck decoys, cage traps, cannon netting, and roundups are widely used to capture waterfowl in order to monitor populations. These methods are often regulated in countries with national ringing or banding programs and are considered to be safe, and thus justifiable given the benefits to conservation. However, few published studies have addressed how frequently injuries and mortalities occur, or the nature of any injuries. In the present study, rates of mortality and injury during captures with the use of these methods carried out by the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust as part of conservation programs were assessed. The total rate of injury (including mild dermal abrasions) was 0.42% across all species groups, whereas total mortality was 0.1% across all capture methods. Incidence of injury varied among species groups (ducks, geese, swans, and rails), with some, for example, dabbling ducks, at greater risk than others. We also describe techniques used before, during, and after a capture to reduce stress and injury in captured waterfowl. Projects using these or other capture methods should monitor and publish their performance to allow sharing of experience and to reduce risks further.

Regional differences in mortality in Greece (1984–2004): The case of Thrace

PubMed Central

Papastergiou, Panagiotis; Rachiotis, George; Polyzou, Konstantina; Zilidis, Christos; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

2008-01-01

Background Mortality differences at national level can generate hypothesis on possible causal association that could be further investigated. The aim of the present study was to identify regions with high mortality rates in Greece. Methods Age adjusted specific mortality rates by gender were calculated in each of the 10 regions of Greece during the period 1984–2004. Moreover standardized mortality rates (SMR) were also calculated by using population census data of years 1981, 1991, 2001. The mortality rates were examined in relation to GDP per capita, the ratio of hospital beds, and doctors per population for each region. Results During the study period, the region of Thrace recorded the highest mortality rate at almost all age groups in both sexes among the ten Greek regions. Thrace had one of the lowest GDP per capita (11 123 Euro) and recorded low ratios of Physicians (284) per 100 000 inhabitants in comparison to the national ratios. Moreover the ratio of hospital beds per population was in Thrace very low (268/100 000) in comparison to the national ratio (470/100 000). Thrace is the Greek region with the highest percentage of Muslim population (33%). Multivariate analysis revealed that GDP and doctors/100000 inhabitants were associated with increased mortality in Thrace. Conclusion Thrace is the region with the highest mortality rate in Greece. Further research is needed to assess the contribution of each possible risk factor to the increased mortality rate of Thrace which could have important public health implications. PMID:18721482

Individual and Center-Level Factors Affecting Mortality Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

Alleman, Brandon W.; Li, Lei; Dagle, John M.; Smith, P. Brian; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Laughon, Matthew M.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Goldberg, Ronald N.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Murray, Jeffrey C.; Cotten, C. Michael; Shankaran, Seetha; Walsh, Michele C.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Ellsbury, Dan L.; Hale, Ellen C.; Newman, Nancy S.; Wallace, Dennis D.; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine factors affecting center differences in mortality for extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. METHODS: We analyzed data for 5418 ELBW infants born at 16 Neonatal Research Network centers during 2006–2009. The primary outcomes of early mortality (≤12 hours after birth) and in-hospital mortality were assessed by using multilevel hierarchical models. Models were developed to investigate associations of center rates of selected interventions with mortality while adjusting for patient-level risk factors. These analyses were performed for all gestational ages (GAs) and separately for GAs <25 weeks and ≥25 weeks. RESULTS: Early and in-hospital mortality rates among centers were 5% to 36% and 11% to 53% for all GAs, 13% to 73% and 28% to 90% for GAs <25 weeks, and 1% to 11% and 7% to 26% for GAs ≥25 weeks, respectively. Center intervention rates significantly predicted both early and in-hospital mortality for infants <25 weeks. For infants ≥25 weeks, intervention rates did not predict mortality. The variance in mortality among centers was significant for all GAs and outcomes. Center use of interventions and patient risk factors explained some but not all of the center variation in mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Center intervention rates explain a portion of the center variation in mortality, especially for infants born at <25 weeks’ GA. This finding suggests that deaths may be prevented by standardizing care for very early GA infants. However, differences in patient characteristics and center intervention rates do not account for all of the observed variability in mortality; and for infants with GA ≥25 weeks these differences account for only a small part of the variation in mortality. PMID:23753096

Change in Self-Rated Health and Mortality among Community-Dwelling Disabled Older Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Han, Beth; Phillips, Caroline; Ferrucci, Luigi; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Jylha, Marja; Kasper, Judith; Guralnik, Jack M.

2005-01-01

Purpose: Our study assessed whether change in self-rated health is a stronger predictor of mortality than baseline self-rated health and the most recent self-rated health (prior to death or loss to follow-up) among disabled older women. Design and Methods: The Women's Health and Aging Study examined disabled older women at baseline and every 6…

Ecological context of infant mortality in high-focus states of India

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This goal of this study was to shed light on the ecological context as a potential determinant of the infant mortality rate in nine high-focus states in India. METHODS: Data from the Annual Health Survey (2010-2011), the Census of India (2011), and the District Level Household and Facility Survey 3 (2007-08) were used in this study. In multiple regression analysis explanatory variable such as underdevelopment is measured by the non-working population, and income inequality, quantified as the proportion of households in the bottom wealth quintile. While, the trickle-down effect of education is measured by female literacy, and investment in health, as reflected by neonatal care facilities in primary health centres. RESULTS: A high spatial autocorrelation of district infant mortality rates was observed, and ecological factors were found to have a significant impact on district infant mortality rates. The result also revealed that non-working population and income inequality were found to have a negative effect on the district infant mortality rate. Additionally, female literacy and new-born care facilities were found to have an inverse association with the infant mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions at the community level can reduce district infant mortality rates. PMID:26971696

Can a bank crisis break your heart?

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David; Meissner, Christopher M; King, Lawrence P

2008-01-01

Background To assess whether a banking system crisis increases short-term population cardiovascular mortality rates. Methods International, longitudinal multivariate regression analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality data from 1960 to 2002 Results A system-wide banking crisis increases population heart disease mortality rates by 6.4% (95% CI: 2.5% to 10.2%, p < 0.01) in high income countries, after controlling for economic change, macroeconomic instability, and population age and social distribution. The estimated effect is nearly four times as large in low income countries. Conclusion Banking crises are a significant determinant of short-term increases in heart disease mortality rates, and may have more severe consequences for developing countries. PMID:18197979

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population

PubMed Central

Baril, Donald T.; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B.

2015-01-01

Objective Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. Methods This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Results Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Conclusions Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. PMID:24768362

Spatial pattern and temporal trend of mortality due to tuberculosis 10

PubMed Central

de Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo; Berra, Thaís Zamboni; Garcia, Maria Concebida da Cunha; Popolin, Marcela Paschoal; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Yamamura, Mellina; dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe the epidemiological profile of mortality due to tuberculosis (TB), to analyze the spatial pattern of these deaths and to investigate the temporal trend in mortality due to tuberculosis in Northeast Brazil. Methods: An ecological study based on secondary mortality data. Deaths due to TB were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were calculated and gross mortality rates were estimated and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Prais-Winsten’s regression was used to analyze the temporal trend in the TB mortality coefficients. The Kernel density technique was used to analyze the spatial distribution of TB mortality. Results: Tuberculosis was implicated in 236 deaths. The burden of tuberculosis deaths was higher amongst males, single people and people of mixed ethnicity, and the mean age at death was 51 years. TB deaths were clustered in the East, West and North health districts, and the tuberculosis mortality coefficient remained stable throughout the study period. Conclusions: Analyses of the spatial pattern and temporal trend in mortality revealed that certain areas have higher TB mortality rates, and should therefore be prioritized in public health interventions targeting the disease. PMID:29742272

Brief Report: Investigating Uncertainty in the Minimum Mortality Temperature: Methods and Application to 52 Spanish Cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

The minimum mortality temperature from J- or U-shaped curves varies across cities with different climates. This variation conveys information on adaptation, but ability to characterize is limited by the absence of a method to describe uncertainty in estimated minimum mortality temperatures. We propose an approximate parametric bootstrap estimator of confidence interval (CI) and standard error (SE) for the minimum mortality temperature from a temperature-mortality shape estimated by splines. The coverage of the estimated CIs was close to nominal value (95%) in the datasets simulated, although SEs were slightly high. Applying the method to 52 Spanish provincial capital cities showed larger minimum mortality temperatures in hotter cities, rising almost exactly at the same rate as annual mean temperature. The method proposed for computing CIs and SEs for minimums from spline curves allows comparing minimum mortality temperatures in different cities and investigating their associations with climate properly, allowing for estimation uncertainty.

Tobacco-, Alcohol-, and Drug-Attributable Deaths and Their Contribution to Mortality Disparities in a Cohort of Homeless Adults in Boston

PubMed Central

Chang, Yuchiao; Singer, Daniel E.; Porneala, Bianca C.; Gaeta, Jessie M.; O’Connell, James J.; Rigotti, Nancy A.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We quantified tobacco-, alcohol-, and drug-attributable deaths and their contribution to mortality disparities among homeless adults. Methods. We ascertained causes of death among 28 033 adults seen at the Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program in 2003 to 2008. We calculated population-attributable fractions to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to tobacco, alcohol, or drug use. We compared attributable mortality rates with those for Massachusetts adults using rate ratios and differences. Results. Of 1302 deaths, 236 were tobacco-attributable, 215 were alcohol-attributable, and 286 were drug-attributable. Fifty-two percent of deaths were attributable to any of these substances. In comparison with Massachusetts adults, tobacco-attributable mortality rates were 3 to 5 times higher, alcohol-attributable mortality rates were 6 to 10 times higher, and drug-attributable mortality rates were 8 to 17 times higher. Disparities in substance-attributable deaths accounted for 57% of the all-cause mortality gap between the homeless cohort and Massachusetts adults. Conclusions. In this clinic-based cohort of homeless adults, over half of all deaths were substance-attributable, but this did not fully explain the mortality disparity with the general population. Interventions should address both addiction and non-addiction sources of excess mortality. PMID:25521869

Global Inequalities in Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality are Linked to Deprivation, Low Socioeconomic Status, and Human Development

PubMed Central

Singh, Gopal K.; Azuine, Romuladus E.; Siahpush, Mohammad

2012-01-01

Objectives This study examined global inequalities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates as a function of cross-national variations in the Human Development Index (HDI), socioeconomic factors, Gender Inequality Index (GII), and healthcare expenditure. Methods Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were calculated for women in 184 countries using the 2008 GLOBOCAN database, and incidence and mortality trends were analyzed using the WHO cancer mortality database. Log-linear regression was used to model annual trends, while OLS and Poisson regression models were used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic and human development factors on incidence and mortality rates. Results Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates varied widely, with many African countries such as Guinea, Zambia, Comoros, Tanzania, and Malawi having at least 10-to-20-fold higher rates than several West Asian, Middle East, and European countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Switzerland. HDI, GII, poverty rate, health expenditure per capita, urbanization, and literacy rate were all significantly related to cervical cancer incidence and mortality, with HDI and poverty rate each explaining >52% of the global variance in mortality. Both incidence and mortality rates increased in relation to lower human development and higher gender inequality levels. A 0.2 unit increase in HDI was associated with a 20% decrease in cervical cancer risk and a 33% decrease in cervical cancer mortality risk. The risk of a cervical cancer diagnosis increased by 24% and of cervical cancer death by 42% for a 0.2 unit increase in GII. Higher health expenditure levels were independently associated with decreased incidence and mortality risks. Conclusions and Public Health Implications Global inequalities in cervical cancer are clearly linked to disparities in human development, social inequality, and living standards. Reductions in cervical cancer rates are achievable by reducing inequalities in socioeconomic conditions, availability of preventive health services, and women’s social status. PMID:27621956

American-Indian diabetes mortality in the Great Plains Region 2002–2010

PubMed Central

Kelley, Allyson; Giroux, Jennifer; Schulz, Mark; Aronson, Bob; Wallace, Debra; Bell, Ronny; Morrison, Sharon

2015-01-01

Objective To compare American-Indian and Caucasian mortality rates from diabetes among tribal Contract Health Service Delivery Areas (CHSDAs) in the Great Plains Region (GPR) and describe the disparities observed. Research design and methods Mortality data from the National Center for Vital Statistics and Seer*STAT were used to identify diabetes as the underlying cause of death for each decedent in the GPR from 2002 to 2010. Mortality data were abstracted and aggregated for American-Indians and Caucasians for 25 reservation CHSDAs in the GPR. Rate ratios (RR) with 95% CIs were used and SEER*Stat V.8.0.4 software calculated age-adjusted diabetes mortality rates. Results Age-adjusted mortality rates for American-Indians were significantly higher than those for Caucasians during the 8-year period. In the GPR, American-Indians were 3.44 times more likely to die from diabetes than Caucasians. South Dakota had the highest RR (5.47 times that of Caucasians), and Iowa had the lowest RR, (1.1). Reservation CHSDA RR ranged from 1.78 to 10.25. Conclusions American-Indians in the GPR have higher diabetes mortality rates than Caucasians in the GPR. Mortality rates among American-Indians persist despite special programs and initiatives aimed at reducing diabetes in these populations. Effective and immediate efforts are needed to address premature diabetes mortality among American-Indians in the GPR. PMID:25926992

Evolution of Cardiovascular Diseases Mortality in the Counties of the State of Rio de Janeiro from 1979 to 2010

PubMed Central

Soares, Gabriel Porto; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Silva, Nelson Albuquerque de Souza e; de Oliveira, Glaucia Maria Moraes

2015-01-01

Background Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in Brazil. Objective To estimate total CVD, cerebrovascular disease (CBVD), and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in adults in the counties of the state of Rio de Janeiro (SRJ), from 1979 to 2010. Methods The counties of the SRJ were analysed according to their denominations stablished by the geopolitical structure of 1950, Each new county that have since been created, splitting from their original county, was grouped according to their former origin. Population Data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and data on deaths were obtained from DataSus/MS. Mean CVD, CBVD, and IHD mortality rates were estimated, compensated for deaths from ill-defined causes, and adjusted for age and sex using the direct method for three periods: 1979–1989, 1990–1999, and 2000–2010, Such results were spatially represented in maps. Tables were also constructed showing the mortality rates for each disease and year period. Results There was a significant reduction in mortality rates across the three disease groups over the the three defined periods in all the county clusters analysed, Despite an initial mortality rate variation among the counties, it was observed a homogenization of such rates at the final period (2000–2010). The drop in CBVD mortality was greater than that in IHD mortality. Conclusion Mortality due to CVD has steadily decreased in the SRJ in the last three decades. This reduction cannot be explained by greater access to high technology procedures or better control of cardiovascular risk factors as these facts have not occurred or happened in low proportion of cases with the exception of smoking which has decreased significantly. Therefore, it is necessary to seek explanations for this decrease, which may be related to improvements in the socioeconomic conditions of the population. PMID:25789882

Pollution Sources and Mortality Rates across Rural-Urban Areas in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hendryx, Michael; Fedorko, Evan; Halverson, Joel

2010-01-01

Purpose: To conduct an assessment of rural environmental pollution sources and associated population mortality rates. Methods: The design is a secondary analysis of county-level data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Department of Agriculture, National Land Cover Dataset, Energy Information Administration, Centers for Disease Control…

Perioperative mortality after hemiarthroplasty related to fixation method.

PubMed

Costain, Darren J; Whitehouse, Sarah L; Pratt, Nicole L; Graves, Stephen E; Ryan, Philip; Crawford, Ross W

2011-06-01

The appropriate fixation method for hemiarthroplasty of the hip as it relates to implant survivorship and patient mortality is a matter of ongoing debate. We examined the influence of fixation method on revision rate and mortality. We analyzed approximately 25,000 hemiarthroplasty cases from the AOA National Joint Replacement Registry. Deaths at 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year were compared for all patients and among subgroups based on implant type. Patients treated with cemented monoblock hemiarthroplasty had a 1.7-times higher day-1 mortality compared to uncemented monoblock components (p < 0.001). This finding was reversed by 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year after surgery (p < 0.001). Modular hemiarthroplasties did not reveal a difference in mortality between fixation methods at any time point. This study shows lower (or similar) overall mortality with cemented hemiarthroplasty of the hip.

90-day postoperative mortality is a legitimate measure of hepatopancreatobiliary surgical quality

PubMed Central

Mise, Yoshihiro; Vauthey, Jean-Nicolas; Zimmitti, Giuseppe; Parker, Nathan H.; Conrad, Claudius; Aloia, Thomas A.; Lee, Jeffery E.; Fleming, Jason B.; Katz, Matthew H. G.

2015-01-01

Objective To investigate the legitimacy of 90-day mortality as a measure of hepatopancreatobiliary quality. Summary Background Data The 90-day mortality rate has been increasingly but not universally reported after hepatopancreatobiliary surgery. The legitimacy of this definition as a measure of surgical quality has not been evaluated. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the causes of all deaths that occurred within 365 postoperative days in patients undergoing hepatectomy (n = 2811) and/or pancreatectomy (n = 1092) from January 1997 through December 2012. The rates of surgery-related, disease-related, and overall mortality within 30 days, within 30 days or during the index hospitalization, within 90 days, and within 180 days following surgery were calculated. Results Seventy-nine (3%) surgery-related deaths and 92 (3%) disease-related deaths occurred within 365 days after hepatectomy. Twenty (2%) surgery-related deaths and 112 (10%) disease-related deaths occurred within 365 days after pancreatectomy. The overall mortality rates at 99 day and 118 days optimally reflected surgery-related mortality following hepatobiliary and pancreatic operations, respectively. The 90-day overall mortality rate was a less sensitive but equivalently specific measure of surgery-related death. Conclusions and Relevance The 99-day and 118-day definitions of postoperative mortality optimally reflected surgery-related mortality following hepatobiliary and pancreatic operations, respectively. However, among commonly reported metrics, the 90-day overall mortality rate represents a legitimate measure of surgical quality. PMID:25590497

Differences in Poisoning Mortality in the United States, 2003–2007: Epidemiology of Poisoning Deaths Classified as Unintentional, Suicide or Homicide

PubMed Central

Muazzam, Sana; Swahn, Monica H.; Alamgir, Hasanat; Nasrullah, Muazzam

2012-01-01

Introduction Poisoning, specifically unintentional poisoning, is a major public health problem in the United States (U.S.). Published literature that presents epidemiology of all forms of poisoning mortalities (i.e., unintentional, suicide, homicide) together is limited. This report presents data and summarizes the evidence on poisoning mortality by demographic and geographic characteristics to describe the burden of poisoning mortality and the differences among sub-populations in the U.S. for a 5-year period. Methods Using mortality data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, we presented the age-specific and age-adjusted unintentional and intentional (suicide, homicide) poisoning mortality rates by sex, age, race, and state of residence for the most recent years (2003–2007) of available data. Annual percentage changes in deaths and rates were calculated, and linear regression using natural log were used for time-trend analysis. Results There were 121,367 (rate=8.18 per 100,000) unintentional poisoning deaths. Overall, the unintentional poisoning mortality rate increased by 46.9%, from 6.7 per 100,000 in 2003 to 9.8 per100.000 in 2007, with the highest mortality rate among those aged 40–59 (rate=15.36), males (rate=11.02) and whites (rate=8.68). New Mexico (rate=18.2) had the highest rate. Unintentional poisoning mortality rate increased significantly among both sexes, and all racial groups except blacks (p<0.05 time-related trend for rate). Among a total of 29,469 (rate=1.97) suicidal poisoning deaths, the rate increased by 9.9%, from 1.9 per 100,000 in 2003 to 2.1 per 100,000 in 2007, with the highest rate among those aged 40–59 (rate=3.92), males (rate=2.20) and whites (rate=2.24). Nevada (rate=3.9) had the highest rate. Mortality rate increased significantly among females and whites only (p<0.05 time-related trend for rate). There were 463 (rate=0.03) homicidal poisoning deaths and the rate remained the same during 2003–2007. The highest rates were among aged 0–19 (rate=0.05), males (rate=0.04) and blacks (rate=0.06). Conclusion Prevention efforts for poisoning mortalities, especially unintentional poisoning, should be developed, implemented and strengthened. Differences exist in poisoning mortality by age, sex, location, and these findings underscore the urgency of addressing this public health burden as this epidemic continues to grow in the U.S. PMID:22900120

Association between an Internet-Based Measure of Area Racism and Black Mortality.

PubMed

Chae, David H; Clouston, Sean; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L; Kramer, Michael R; Cooper, Hannah L F; Wilson, Sacoby M; Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth I; Gold, Robert S; Link, Bruce G

2015-01-01

Racial disparities in health are well-documented and represent a significant public health concern in the US. Racism-related factors contribute to poorer health and higher mortality rates among Blacks compared to other racial groups. However, methods to measure racism and monitor its associations with health at the population-level have remained elusive. In this study, we investigated the utility of a previously developed Internet search-based proxy of area racism as a predictor of Black mortality rates. Area racism was the proportion of Google searches containing the "N-word" in 196 designated market areas (DMAs). Negative binomial regression models were specified taking into account individual age, sex, year of death, and Census region and adjusted to the 2000 US standard population to examine the association between area racism and Black mortality rates, which were derived from death certificates and mid-year population counts collated by the National Center for Health Statistics (2004-2009). DMAs characterized by a one standard deviation greater level of area racism were associated with an 8.2% increase in the all-cause Black mortality rate, equivalent to over 30,000 deaths annually. The magnitude of this effect was attenuated to 5.7% after adjustment for DMA-level demographic and Black socioeconomic covariates. A model controlling for the White mortality rate was used to further adjust for unmeasured confounders that influence mortality overall in a geographic area, and to examine Black-White disparities in the mortality rate. Area racism remained significantly associated with the all-cause Black mortality rate (mortality rate ratio = 1.036; 95% confidence interval = 1.015, 1.057; p = 0.001). Models further examining cause-specific Black mortality rates revealed significant associations with heart disease, cancer, and stroke. These findings are congruent with studies documenting the deleterious impact of racism on health among Blacks. Our study contributes to evidence that racism shapes patterns in mortality and generates racial disparities in health.

Association between an Internet-Based Measure of Area Racism and Black Mortality

PubMed Central

Chae, David H.; Clouston, Sean; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.; Kramer, Michael R.; Cooper, Hannah L. F.; Wilson, Sacoby M.; Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth I.; Gold, Robert S.; Link, Bruce G.

2015-01-01

Racial disparities in health are well-documented and represent a significant public health concern in the US. Racism-related factors contribute to poorer health and higher mortality rates among Blacks compared to other racial groups. However, methods to measure racism and monitor its associations with health at the population-level have remained elusive. In this study, we investigated the utility of a previously developed Internet search-based proxy of area racism as a predictor of Black mortality rates. Area racism was the proportion of Google searches containing the “N-word” in 196 designated market areas (DMAs). Negative binomial regression models were specified taking into account individual age, sex, year of death, and Census region and adjusted to the 2000 US standard population to examine the association between area racism and Black mortality rates, which were derived from death certificates and mid-year population counts collated by the National Center for Health Statistics (2004–2009). DMAs characterized by a one standard deviation greater level of area racism were associated with an 8.2% increase in the all-cause Black mortality rate, equivalent to over 30,000 deaths annually. The magnitude of this effect was attenuated to 5.7% after adjustment for DMA-level demographic and Black socioeconomic covariates. A model controlling for the White mortality rate was used to further adjust for unmeasured confounders that influence mortality overall in a geographic area, and to examine Black-White disparities in the mortality rate. Area racism remained significantly associated with the all-cause Black mortality rate (mortality rate ratio = 1.036; 95% confidence interval = 1.015, 1.057; p = 0.001). Models further examining cause-specific Black mortality rates revealed significant associations with heart disease, cancer, and stroke. These findings are congruent with studies documenting the deleterious impact of racism on health among Blacks. Our study contributes to evidence that racism shapes patterns in mortality and generates racial disparities in health. PMID:25909964

A multivariate method for estimating mortality rates among children under 5 years from health and social indicators in Iraq.

PubMed

Garfield, R; Leu, C S

2000-06-01

Many reports on Iraq suggest that a rise in rates of death and disease have occurred since the Gulf War of January/February 1991 and the economic sanctions that followed it. Four preliminary models, based on unadjusted projections, were developed. A logistic regression model was then developed on the basis of six social variables in Iraq and comparable information from countries in the State of the World's Children report. Missing data were estimated for this model by a multiple imputation procedure. The final model depends on three socio-medical indicators: adult literacy, nutritional stunting of children under 5 years, and access to piped water. The model successfully predicted both the mortality rate in 1990, under stable conditions, and in 1991, following the Gulf War. For 1996, after 5 years of sanctions and prior to receipt of humanitarian food via the oil for food programme, this model shows mortality among children under 5 to have reached an estimated 87 per 1000, a rate last experienced more than 30 years ago. Accurate and timely estimates of mortality levels in developing countries are costly and require considerable methodological expertise. A rapid estimation technique like the one developed here may be a useful tool for quick and efficient estimation of mortality rates among under 5 year olds in countries where good mortality data are not routinely available. This is especially true for countries with complex humanitarian emergencies where information on mortality changes can guide interventions and the social stability to use standard demographic methods does not exist.

Community-based measles mortality surveillance in two districts of Katanga Province, Democratic Republic of Congo.

PubMed

N'goran, Alexandra A; Ilunga, Ngoie; Coldiron, Matthew E; Grais, Rebecca F; Porten, Klaudia

2013-12-17

Mortality due to measles is often under-reported. Traditional methods of measuring mortality can be time and resource-intensive. We describe the implementation of a community-based method to monitor measles mortality. Using standardized questionnaires in the midst of a measles outbreak, a community-based network of volunteers recorded a much larger number of deaths (376) than deaths recorded in health centres (27). Deaths were predominantly (93.5%) among children aged less than 5 years; 54.5% of measles deaths reported antecedent measles vaccination. In this setting, the number of deaths due to measles reported in community-based surveillance was much higher than deaths reported in health centres. Lack of reliable population data and incomplete coverage of the surveillance system make it impossible to calculate overall attack rates and cause-specific mortality rates. Similar systems could be rapidly implemented in other difficult outbreak settings.

Actuarial calculation for PSAK-24 purposes post-employment benefit using market-consistent approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie

2015-12-01

In this paper we use a market-consistent approach to calculate present value of obligation of a companies' post-employment benefit in accordance with PSAK-24 (the Indonesian accounting standard). We set some actuarial assumption such as Indonesian TMI 2011 mortality tables for mortality assumptions, accumulated salary function for wages assumption, a scaled (to mortality) disability assumption and a pre-defined turnover rate for termination assumption. For economic assumption, we use binomial tree method with estimated discount rate as its average movement. In accordance with PSAK-24, the Projected Unit Credit method has been adapted to determine the present value of obligation (actuarial liability), so we use this method with a modification in its discount function.

Trends in the leading causes of injury mortality, Australia, Canada, and the United States, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Mack, Karin; Clapperton, Angela; Macpherson, Alison; Sleet, David; Newton, Donovan; Murdoch, James; Mackay, J Morag; Berecki-Gisolf, Janneke; Wilkins, Natalie; Marr, Angela; Ballesteros, Michael; McClure, Roderick

2017-06-16

The aim of this study was to highlight the differences in injury rates between populations through a descriptive epidemiological study of population-level trends in injury mortality for the high-income countries of Australia, Canada and the United States. Mortality data were available for the US from 2000 to 2014, and for Canada and Australia from 2000 to 2012. Injury causes were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision external cause codes, and were grouped into major causes. Rates were direct-method age-adjusted using the US 2000 projected population as the standard age distribution. US motor vehicle injury mortality rates declined from 2000 to 2014 but remained markedly higher than those of Australia or Canada. In all three countries, fall injury mortality rates increased from 2000 to 2014. US homicide mortality rates declined, but remained higher than those of Australia and Canada. While the US had the lowest suicide rate in 2000, it increased by 24% during 2000-2014, and by 2012 was about 14% higher than that in Australia and Canada. The poisoning mortality rate in the US increased dramatically from 2000 to 2014. Results show marked differences and striking similarities in injury mortality between the countries and within countries over time. The observed trends differed by injury cause category. The substantial differences in injury rates between similarly resourced populations raises important questions about the role of societal-level factors as underlying causes of the differential distribution of injury in our communities.

Cancer mortality in Yukon 1999–2013: elevated mortality rates and a unique cancer profile

PubMed Central

Simkin, Jonathan; Woods, Ryan; Elliott, Catherine

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Although cancer is the leading cause of death in Canada, cancer in the North has been incompletely described. Objective: To determine cancer mortality rates in the Yukon Territory, compare them with Canadian rates, and identify major causes of cancer mortality. Design: The Yukon Vital Statistics Registry provided all cancer deaths for Yukon residents between 1999-2013. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated using direct standardisation and compared with Canadian rates. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated using indirect standardisation relative to age-specific rates from Canada, British Columbia (BC), and three sub-provincial BC administrative health regions : Interior Health (IH), Northern Health (NH) and Vancouver Coastal Health (VCH). Trends in smoothed ASMRs were examined with graphical methods. Results: Yukon’s all-cancer ASMRs were elevated compared with national and provincial rates for the entire period. Disparities were greatest compared with the urban VCH: prostate (SMRVCH=246.3, 95% CI 140.9–351.6), female lung (SMRVCH=221.2, 95% CI 154.3–288.1), female breast (SMRVCH=169.0 95% CI, 101.4–236.7), and total colorectal (SMRVCH=149.3, 95% CI 101.8–196.8) cancers were significantly elevated. Total stomach cancer mortality was significantly elevated compared with all comparators. Conclusions: Yukon cancer mortality rates were elevated compared with national, provincial, urban, and southern-rural jurisdictions. More research is required to elucidate these differences. PMID:28598269

Monitoring tree mortality in mature Douglas-fir forests: size and species matter

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/MethodsA regional increase in tree mortality rates associated with climate change will influence forest health and ecosystem services, including water quality and quantity. In recent decades, accelerated tree mortality has occurred in some, but not all, fores...

Thinning method and intensity influence long-term mortality trends in a red pine forest

Treesearch

Matthew D. Powers; Brian J. Palik; John B. Bradford; Shawn Fraver; Christopher R. Webster

2010-01-01

Tree mortality shapes forest development, but rising mortality can represent lost production or an adverse response to changing environmental conditions. Thinning represents a strategy for reducing mortality rates, but different thinning techniques and intensities could have varying impacts depending on how they alter stand structure. We analyzed trends in stand...

Small area estimation for estimating the number of infant mortality in West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggreyani, Arie; Indahwati, Kurnia, Anang

2016-02-01

Demographic and Health Survey Indonesia (DHSI) is a national designed survey to provide information regarding birth rate, mortality rate, family planning and health. DHSI was conducted by BPS in cooperation with National Population and Family Planning Institution (BKKBN), Indonesia Ministry of Health (KEMENKES) and USAID. Based on the publication of DHSI 2012, the infant mortality rate for a period of five years before survey conducted is 32 for 1000 birth lives. In this paper, Small Area Estimation (SAE) is used to estimate the number of infant mortality in districts of West Java. SAE is a special model of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). In this case, the incidence of infant mortality is a Poisson distribution which has equdispersion assumption. The methods to handle overdispersion are binomial negative and quasi-likelihood model. Based on the results of analysis, quasi-likelihood model is the best model to overcome overdispersion problem. The basic model of the small area estimation used basic area level model. Mean square error (MSE) which based on resampling method is used to measure the accuracy of small area estimates.

Six-year mortality in a street-recruited cohort of homeless youth in San Francisco, California.

PubMed

Auerswald, Colette L; Lin, Jessica S; Parriott, Andrea

2016-01-01

Objectives. The mortality rate of a street-recruited homeless youth cohort in the United States has not yet been reported. We examined the six-year mortality rate for a cohort of street youth recruited from San Francisco street venues in 2004. Methods. Using data collected from a longitudinal, venue-based sample of street youth 15-24 years of age, we calculated age, race, and gender-adjusted mortality rates. Results. Of a sample of 218 participants, 11 died from enrollment in 2004 to December 31, 2010. The majority of deaths were due to suicide and/or substance abuse. The death rate was 9.6 deaths per hundred thousand person-years. The age, race and gender-adjusted standardized mortality ratio was 10.6 (95% CI [5.3-18.9]). Gender specific SMRs were 16.1 (95% CI [3.3-47.1]) for females and 9.4 (95% CI [4.0-18.4]) for males. Conclusions. Street-recruited homeless youth in San Francisco experience a mortality rate in excess of ten times that of the state's general youth population. Services and programs, particularly housing, mental health and substance abuse interventions, are urgently needed to prevent premature mortality in this vulnerable population.

Mortality in the 2011 Tsunami in Japan

PubMed Central

Nakahara, Shinji; Ichikawa, Masao

2013-01-01

Introduction On 11 March 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake caused a huge tsunami that struck Northeast Japan, resulting in nearly 20 000 deaths. We investigated mortality patterns by age, sex, and region in the 3 most severely affected prefectures. Methods Using police data on earthquake victims in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures, mortality rates by sex, age group, and region were calculated, and regional variability in mortality rates across age groups was compared using rate ratios (RRs), with the rates in Iwate as the reference. Results In all regions, age-specific mortality showed a tendency to increase with age; there were no sex differences. Among residents of Iwate, mortality was markedly lower among school-aged children as compared with other age groups. In northern Miyagi and the southern part of the study area, RRs were higher among school-aged children than among other age groups. Conclusions The present study could not address the reasons for the observed mortality patterns and regional differences. To improve preparedness policies, future research should investigate the reasons for regional differences. PMID:23089585

Longitudinal Predictors of Self-Rated Health and Mortality in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Short, Jerome L.

2014-01-01

Introduction Few studies have compared the effects of demographic, cognitive, and behavioral factors of health and mortality longitudinally. We examined predictors of self-rated health and mortality at 3 points, each 2 years apart, over 4 years. Methods We used data from the 2006 wave of the Health and Retirement Study and health and mortality indicators from 2006, 2008, and 2010. We analyzed data from 17,930 adults (aged 50–104 y) to examine predictors of self-rated health and data from a subgroup of 1,171 adults who died from 2006 through 2010 to examine predictors of mortality. Results Time 1 depression was the strongest predictor of self-rated health at all points, independent of age and education. Education, mild activities, body mass index, delayed word recall, and smoking were all associated with self-rated health at each point and predicted mortality. Delayed word recall mediated the relationships of mild activity with health and mortality. Bidirectional mediation was found for the effects of mild activity and depression on health. Conclusion Medical professionals should consider screening for depression and memory difficulties in addition to conducting medical assessments. These assessments could lead to more effective biopsychosocial interventions to help older adults manage risks for mortality. PMID:24901793

Estimating occupational illness, injury, and mortality in food production in the United States: A farm-to-table analysis

PubMed Central

Leon, Juan S.; Newman, Lee S.

2015-01-01

Objectives The study provides a novel model and more comprehensive estimates of the burden of occupational morbidity and mortality in food-related industries, using a farm-to-table approach. Methods The authors analyzed 2008–2010 US Bureau of Labor Statistics data for private industries in the different stages of the farm-to-table model (production; processing; distribution and storage; retail and preparation). Results The morbidity rate for food system industries were significantly higher than the morbidity rate for non-food system industries (Rate Ratio (RR)=1.62, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.30–2.01). Furthermore, the occupational mortality rate for food system industries was significantly higher than the national non-food occupational mortality rate (RR=9.51, 95% CI: 2.47–36.58). Conclusions This is the first use of the farm-to-table model to assess occupational morbidity and mortality, and these findings highlighting specific workplace hazards across food system industries. PMID:25970031

Measuring aging rates of mice subjected to caloric restriction and genetic disruption of growth hormone signaling

PubMed Central

Koopman, Jacob J.E.; van Heemst, Diana; van Bodegom, David; Bonkowski, Michael S.; Sun, Liou Y.; Bartke, Andrzej

2016-01-01

Caloric restriction and genetic disruption of growth hormone signaling have been shown to counteract aging in mice. The effects of these interventions on aging are examined through age-dependent survival or through the increase in age-dependent mortality rates on a logarithmic scale fitted to the Gompertz model. However, these methods have limitations that impede a fully comprehensive disclosure of these effects. Here we examine the effects of these interventions on murine aging through the increase in age-dependent mortality rates on a linear scale without fitting them to a model like the Gompertz model. Whereas these interventions negligibly and non-consistently affected the aging rates when examined through the age-dependent mortality rates on a logarithmic scale, they caused the aging rates to increase at higher ages and to higher levels when examined through the age-dependent mortality rates on a linear scale. These results add to the debate whether these interventions postpone or slow aging and to the understanding of the mechanisms by which they affect aging. Since different methods yield different results, it is worthwhile to compare their results in future research to obtain further insights into the effects of dietary, genetic, and other interventions on the aging of mice and other species. PMID:26959761

Measuring aging rates of mice subjected to caloric restriction and genetic disruption of growth hormone signaling.

PubMed

Koopman, Jacob J E; van Heemst, Diana; van Bodegom, David; Bonkowski, Michael S; Sun, Liou Y; Bartke, Andrzej

2016-03-01

Caloric restriction and genetic disruption of growth hormone signaling have been shown to counteract aging in mice. The effects of these interventions on aging are examined through age-dependent survival or through the increase in age-dependent mortality rates on a logarithmic scale fitted to the Gompertz model. However, these methods have limitations that impede a fully comprehensive disclosure of these effects. Here we examine the effects of these interventions on murine aging through the increase in age-dependent mortality rates on a linear scale without fitting them to a model like the Gompertz model. Whereas these interventions negligibly and non-consistently affected the aging rates when examined through the age-dependent mortality rates on a logarithmic scale, they caused the aging rates to increase at higher ages and to higher levels when examined through the age-dependent mortality rates on a linear scale. These results add to the debate whether these interventions postpone or slow aging and to the understanding of the mechanisms by which they affect aging. Since different methods yield different results, it is worthwhile to compare their results in future research to obtain further insights into the effects of dietary, genetic, and other interventions on the aging of mice and other species.

All-Cause and External Mortality in Released Prisoners: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Zlodre, Jakov

2012-01-01

Objectives. We systematically reviewed studies of mortality following release from prison and examined possible demographic and methodological factors associated with variation in mortality rates. Methods. We searched 5 computer-based literature indexes to conduct a systematic review of studies that reported all-cause, drug-related, suicide, and homicide deaths of released prisoners. We extracted and meta-analyzed crude death rates and standardized mortality ratios by age, gender, and race/ethnicity, where reported. Results. Eighteen cohorts met review criteria reporting 26 163 deaths with substantial heterogeneity in rates. The all-cause crude death rates ranged from 720 to 2054 per 100 000 person-years. Male all-cause standardized mortality ratios ranged from 1.0 to 9.4 and female standardized mortality ratios from 2.6 to 41.3. There were higher standardized mortality ratios in White, female, and younger prisoners. Conclusions. Released prisoners are at increased risk for death following release from prison, particularly in the early period. Aftercare planning for released prisoners could potentially have a large public health impact, and further work is needed to determine whether certain groups should be targeted as part of strategies to reduce mortality. PMID:23078476

Population growth rates of reef sharks with and without fishing on the great barrier reef: robust estimation with multiple models.

PubMed

Hisano, Mizue; Connolly, Sean R; Robbins, William D

2011-01-01

Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing.

Population Growth Rates of Reef Sharks with and without Fishing on the Great Barrier Reef: Robust Estimation with Multiple Models

PubMed Central

Hisano, Mizue; Connolly, Sean R.; Robbins, William D.

2011-01-01

Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing. PMID:21966402

An Estimation of Mortality Risks among People Living with HIV in Karnataka State, India: Learnings from an Intensive HIV/AIDS Care and Support Programme

PubMed Central

Prakash, Ravi; Isac, Shajy; Washington, Reynold; Halli, Shiva S.

2016-01-01

Background In Indian context, limited attempts have been made to estimate the mortality risks among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We estimated the rates of mortality among PLHIV covered under an integrated HIV-prevention cum care and support programme implemented in Karnataka state, India, and attempted to identify the key programme components associated with the higher likelihood of their survival. Methods Retrospective programme data of 55,801 PLHIV registered with the Samastha programme implemented in Karnataka state during 2006–11 was used. Kaplan-Meier survival methods were used to estimate the ten years expected survival probabilities and Cox-proportional hazard model was used to examine the factors associated with risk of mortality among PLHIV. We also calculated mortality rates (per 1000 person-year) across selected demographic and clinical parameters. Results Of the total PLHIV registered with the programme, about nine percent died within the 5-years of programme period with an overall death rate of 38 per 1000 person-years. The mortality rate was higher among males, aged 18 and above, among illiterates, and those residing in rural areas. While the presence of co-infections such as Tuberculosis leads to higher mortality rate, adherence to ART was significantly associated with reduction in overall death rate. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that increase in CD4 cell counts and exposure to intensive care and support programme for at least two years can bring significant reduction in risk of death among PLHIV [(hazard ratio: 0.234; CI: 0.211–0.260) & (hazard ratio: 0.062; CI: 0.054–0.071), respectively] even after adjusting the effect of other socio-demographic, economic and health related confounders. Conclusion Study confirms that while residing in rural areas and presence of co-infection significantly increases the mortality risk among PLHIV, adherence to ART and improvement in CD4 counts led to significant reduction in their mortality risk. Longer exposure to the intervention contributed significantly to reduce mortality among PLHIV. PMID:27253974

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004.

PubMed

Souza, D C C; Santo, A H; Sato, E I

2010-01-01

To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6+/-15.6 years vs. 33.9+/-14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. SLE patients living in the state of São Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Long-term trends of suicide by choice of method in Norway: a joinpoint regression analysis of data from 1969 to 2012.

PubMed

Puzo, Quirino; Qin, Ping; Mehlum, Lars

2016-03-11

Suicide mortality and the rates by specific methods in a population may change over time in response to concurrent changes in relevant factors in society. This study aimed to identify significant changing points in method-specific suicide mortality from 1969 to 2012 in Norway. Data on suicide mortality by specific methods and by sex and age were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause-of-Death Register. Long-term trends in age-standardized rates of suicide mortality were analyzed by using joinpoint regression analysis. The most frequently used suicide method in the total population was hanging, followed by poisoning and firearms. Men chose suicide by firearms more often than women, whereas poisoning and drowning were more frequently used by women. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of suicide mortality significantly changed twice along the period of 1969 to 2012 for both sexes. The male age-standardized suicide rate increased by 3.1% per year until 1989, and decreased by 1.2% per year between 1994 and 2012. Among females the long-term suicide rate increased by 4.0% per year until 1988, decreased by 5.5% through 1995, and then stabilized. Both sexes experienced an upward trend for suicide by hanging during the 44-year observation period, with a particularly significant increase in 15-24 year old males. The most distinct change among men was seen for firearms after 1988 with a significant decrease through 2012 of around 5% per year. For women, significant reductions since 1985-88 were observed for suicide by drowning and poisoning. The present study demonstrates different time trends for different suicide methods with significant reductions in suicide by firearms, drowning and poisoning after the peak in the suicide rate in the late 1980s. Suicide by means of hanging continuously increased, but did not fully compensate for the reduced use of other methods. This lends some support for the effectiveness of method-specific suicide preventive measures, such as restrictions to the access to firearms, which had been implemented in Norway during the relevant time period.

Time to change focus? Transitioning from higher neonatal to higher stillbirth mortality in São Paulo State, Brazil

PubMed Central

Bourroul, Maria Lúcia Moraes; Fink, Günther; Grisi, Sandra; Scoleze Ferrer, Ana Paula; Diniz, Edna Maria de Albuquerque; Brentani, Alexandra

2017-01-01

Background Differential trends in mortality suggest that stillbirths may dominate neonatal mortality in the medium to long run. Brazil has made major efforts to improve data collection on health indicators at granular geographic levels, and provides an ideal environment to test this hypothesis. Our goals were to examine levels and trends in stillbirths and neonatal deaths and the extent to which the mortality burden caused by stillbirths dominates neonatal mortality at the municipality- and state-level. Methods We used data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health’s repository on births, fetal, and neonatal deaths (2010–2014) to calculate stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates for São Paulo state’s 645 municipalities. Results At the state level, 7.9 per 1000 pregnancies ended in stillbirth (fetal death >22 weeks gestation or fetal weight >500g), but this varied from 0.0 to 28.4 per 1000 across municipalities. 7.9 per 1000 live births also died within the first 28 days. 42% of municipalities had a higher stillbirth rate than neonatal mortality rate, and in 61% of areas with low neonatal mortality (<8.0 per 1000), stillbirth rates exceeded neonatal mortality rates. Conclusions This analysis suggests large variability and inequality in mortality outcomes at the sub-national level. The results also imply that stillbirth mortality may exceed neonatal mortality in Brazil and similar settings in the next few decades, which suggests a need for a shift in policy. This work further underscores the importance of continued research into causes and prevention of stillbirth. PMID:29272295

Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Elderly: Comparative Analysis of Two Five-year Periods

PubMed Central

Piuvezam, Grasiela; Medeiros, Wilton Rodrigues; Costa, Andressa Vellasco; Emerenciano, Felipe Fonseca; Santos, Renata Cristina; Seabra, Danilo Silveira

2015-01-01

Background Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Brazil. The better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the Brazilian elderly population is essential to support more appropriate health actions for each region of the country. Objective To describe and to compare geospatially the rates of mortality from cardiovascular disease in elderly individuals living in Brazil by gender in two 5-year periods: 1996 to 2000 and 2006 to 2010. Methods This is an ecological study, for which rates of mortality were obtained from DATASUS and the population rates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). An average mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in elderly by gender was calculated for each period. The spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by TerraView 4.2.0 through global Moran index and the formation of clusters by the index of local Moran-LISA. Results There was an increase, in the second 5-year period, in the mortality rates in the Northeast and North regions, parallel to a decrease in the South, South-East and Midwest regions. Moreover, there was the formation of clusters with high mortality rates in the second period in Roraima among females, and in Ceará, Pernambuco and Roraima among males. Conclusion The increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast regions is probably related to the changing profile of mortality and improvement in the quality of information, a result of the increase in surveillance and health care measures in these regions. PMID:26559984

CANCER HEALTH DISPARITIES PERSIST AMONG AFRICAN AMERICANS IN WISCONSIN

PubMed Central

Jones, Nathan R.; Williamson, Amy; Foote, Mary; Creswell, Paul; Strickland, Rick; Remington, Patrick; Cleary, James; Adams, Alexandra

2011-01-01

Background Cancer incidence and mortality rates have decreased over the last few decades, yet not all groups have benefited equally from these successes. This has resulted in increased disparities in cancer burden among various population groups. Objective This study examined trends in absolute and relative disparities in overall cancer incidence and mortality rates between African American and white residents of Wisconsin during 1995 to 2006. Methods Cancer incidence data were obtained from the Wisconsin Cancer Reporting System. Mortality data were accessed from the National Center for Health Statistics’ public use mortality file. Trends in incidence and mortality rates during 1995–2006 for African Americans and whites were calculated and changes in relative disparity were measured using rate ratios. Results With few exceptions, African American incidence and mortality rates were higher than white rates in every year of the period 1995–2006. Although cancer mortality and incidence declined for both groups over the period, relative racial disparities in rates persisted over the period and account for about a third of African American cancer deaths. Conclusions Elimination of cancer health disparities will require further research into the many contributing factors, as well as into effective interventions to address them. In Wisconsin, policy makers, health administrators, and healthcare providers need to balance resources carefully and set appropriate priorities to target racial inequities in cancer burden. PMID:21066932

Predicting Tree Mortality From Diameter Growth: A Comparison of Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Approaches

Treesearch

Peter H. Wychoff; James S. Clark

2000-01-01

Ecologists and foresters have long noted a link between tree growth rate and mortality, and recent work suggests that i&erspecific differences in low growth tolerauce is a key force shaping forest structure. Little information is available, however, on the growth-mortality relationship for most species. We present three methods for estimating growth-mortality...

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

PubMed Central

Guzman Castillo, Maria; Gillespie, Duncan O. S.; Allen, Kirk; Bandosz, Piotr; Schmid, Volker; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. PMID:24918442

Tackling Health Inequities in Chile: Maternal, Newborn, Infant, and Child Mortality Between 1990 and 2004

PubMed Central

Requejo, Jennifer Harris; Nien, Jyh Kae; Merialdi, Mario; Bustreo, Flavia; Betran, Ana Pilar

2009-01-01

Objectives. We analyzed trends in maternal, newborn, and child mortality in Chile between 1990 and 2004, after the introduction of national interventions and reforms, and examined associations between trends and interventions. Methods. Data were provided by the Chilean Ministry of Health on all pregnancies between 1990 and 2004 (approximately 4 000 000). We calculated yearly maternal mortality ratios, stillbirth rates, and mortality rates for neonates, infants (aged > 28 days and < 1 year), and children aged 1 to 4 years. We also calculated these statistics by 5-year intervals for Chile's poorest to richest district quintiles. Results. During the study period, the maternal mortality ratio decreased from 42.1 to 18.5 per 100 000 live births. The mortality rate for neonates decreased from 9.0 to 5.7 per 1000 births, for infants from 7.8 to 3.1 per 1000 births, and for young children from 3.1 to 1.7 per 1000 live births. The stillbirth rate declined from 6.0 to 5.0 per 1000 births. Disparities in these mortality statistics between the poorest and richest district quintiles also decreased, with the largest mortality reductions in the poorest quintile. Conclusions. During a period of socioeconomic development and health sector reforms, Chile experienced significant mortality and inequity reductions. PMID:19443831

Analysis of mortality trends by specific ethnic groups and age groups in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Siri, Zailan

2014-07-01

The number of people surviving until old age has been increasing worldwide. Reduction in fertility and mortality have resulted in increasing survival of populations to later life. This study examines the mortality trends among the three main ethnic groups in Malaysia, namely; the Malays, Chinese and Indians for four important age groups (adolescents, adults, middle age and elderly) for both gender. Since the data on mortality rates in Malaysia is only available in age groups such as 1-5, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and so on, hence some distribution or interpolation method was essential to expand it to the individual ages. In the study, the Heligman and Pollard model will be used to expand the mortality rates from the age groups to the individual ages. It was found that decreasing trend in all age groups and ethnic groups. Female mortality is significantly lower than male mortality, and the difference may be increasing. Also the mortality rates for females are different than that for males in all ethnic groups, and the difference is generally increasing until it reaches its peak at the oldest age category. Due to the decreasing trend of mortality rates, the government needs to plan for health program to support more elderly people in the coming years.

Under-5 mortality in 2851 Chinese counties, 1996–2012: a subnational assessment of achieving MDG 4 goals in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanping; Li, Xiaohong; Zhou, Maigeng; Luo, Shusheng; Liang, Juan; Liddell, Chelsea A; Coates, Matthew M; Gao, Yanqiu; Wang, Linhong; He, Chunhua; Kang, Chuyun; Liu, Shiwei; Dai, Li; Schumacher, Austin E; Fraser, Maya S; Wolock, Timothy M; Pain, Amanda; Levitz, Carly E; Singh, Lavanya; Coggeshall, Megan; Lind, Margaret; Li, Yichong; Li, Qi; Deng, Kui; Mu, Yi; Deng, Changfei; Yi, Ling; Liu, Zheng; Ma, Xia; Li, Hongtian; Mu, Dezhi; Zhu, Jun; Murray, Christopher J L; Wang, Haidong

2017-01-01

Summary Background In the past two decades, the under-5 mortality rate in China has fallen substantially, but progress with regards to the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 at the subnational level has not been quantified. We aimed to estimate under-5 mortality rates in mainland China for the years 1970 to 2012. Methods We estimated the under-5 mortality rate for 31 provinces in mainland China between 1970 and 2013 with data from censuses, surveys, surveillance sites, and disease surveillance points. We estimated under-5 mortality rates for 2851 counties in China from 1996 to 2012 with the reported child mortality numbers from the Annual Report System on Maternal and Child Health. We used a small area mortality estimation model, spatiotemporal smoothing, and Gaussian process regression to synthesise data and generate consistent provincial and county-level estimates. We compared progress at the county level with what was expected on the basis of income and educational attainment using an econometric model. We computed Gini coefficients to study the inequality of under-5 mortality rates across counties. Findings In 2012, the lowest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was about five per 1000 livebirths, lower than in Canada, New Zealand, and the USA. The highest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was higher than that of Bangladesh. 29 provinces achieved a decrease in under-5 mortality rates twice as fast as the MDG 4 target rate; only two provinces will not achieve MDG 4 by 2015. Although some counties in China have under-5 mortality rates similar to those in the most developed nations in 2012, some have similar rates to those recorded in Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Despite wide differences, the inter-county Gini coefficient has been decreasing. Improvement in maternal education and the economic boom have contributed to the fall in child mortality; more than 60% of the counties in China had rates of decline in under-5 mortality rates significantly faster than expected. Fast reduction in under-5 mortality rates have been recorded not only in the Han population, the dominant ethnic majority in China, but also in the minority populations. All top ten minority groups in terms of population sizes have experienced annual reductions in under-5 mortality rates faster than the MDG 4 target at 4·4%. Interpretation The reduction of under-5 mortality rates in China at the country, provincial, and county level is an extraordinary success story. Reductions of under-5 mortality rates faster than 8·8% (twice MDG 4 pace) are possible. Extremely rapid declines seem to be related to public policy in addition to socioeconomic progress. Lessons from successful counties should prove valuable for China to intensify efforts for those with unacceptably high under-5 mortality rates. Funding National “Twelfth Five-Year” Plan for Science and Technology Support, National Health and Family Planning Commission of The People’s Republic of China, Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University, the National Institute on Aging, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. PMID:26510780

All Rural Places Are Not Created Equal: Revisiting the Rural Mortality Penalty in the United States

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objectives. I investigated mortality disparities between urban and rural areas by measuring disparities in urban US areas compared with 6 rural classifications, ranging from suburban to remote locales. Methods. Data from the Compressed Mortality File, National Center for Health Statistics, from 1968 to 2007, was used to calculate age-adjusted mortality rates for all rural and urban regions by year. Criteria measuring disparity between regions included excess deaths, annual rate of change in mortality, and proportion of excess deaths by population size. I used multivariable analysis to test for differences in determinants across regions. Results. The rural mortality penalty existed in all rural classifications, but the degree of disparity varied considerably. Rural–urban continuum code 6 was highly disadvantaged, and rural–urban continuum code 9 displayed a favorable mortality profile. Population, socioeconomic, and health care determinants of mortality varied across regions. Conclusions. A 2-decade long trend in mortality disparities existed in all rural classifications, but the penalty was not distributed evenly. This constitutes an important public health problem. Research should target the slow rates of improvement in mortality in the rural United States as an area of concern. PMID:25211763

Estimating mortality rates of adult fish from entrainment through the propellers of river towboats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutreuter, S.; Dettmers, J.M.; Wahl, David H.

2003-01-01

We developed a method to estimate mortality rates of adult fish caused by entrainment through the propellers of commercial towboats operating in river channels. The method combines trawling while following towboats (to recover a fraction of the kills) and application of a hydrodynamic model of diffusion (to estimate the fraction of the total kills collected in the trawls). The sampling problem is unusual and required quantifying relatively rare events. We first examined key statistical properties of the entrainment mortality rate estimators using Monte Carlo simulation, which demonstrated that a design-based estimator and a new ad hoc estimator are both unbiased and converge to the true value as the sample size becomes large. Next, we estimated the entrainment mortality rates of adult fishes in Pool 26 of the Mississippi River and the Alton Pool of the Illinois River, where we observed kills that we attributed to entrainment. Our estimates of entrainment mortality rates were 2.52 fish/km of towboat travel (80% confidence interval, 1.00-6.09 fish/km) for gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum, 0.13 fish/km (0.00-0.41) for skipjack herring Alosa chrysochloris, and 0.53 fish/km (0.00-1.33) for both shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus and smallmouth buffalo Ictiobus bubalus. Our approach applies more broadly to commercial vessels operating in confined channels, including other large rivers and intracoastal waterways.

Many Vulnerable or a Few Resilient Specimens? Finding the Optimal for Reintroduction/Restocking Programs

PubMed Central

Gil, María del Mar; Palmer, Miquel; Grau, Amalia; Balle, Salvador

2015-01-01

Most reintroduction and restocking programs consist of releasing captive-raised juveniles. The usefulness of these programs has been questioned, and therefore, quality control is advisable. However, evaluating restocking effectiveness is challenging because mortality estimation is required. Most methods for estimating mortality are based on tag recovery. In the case of fish, juveniles are tagged before release, and fishermen typically recover tags when fish are captured. The statistical models currently available for analyzing these data assume either constant mortality rates, fixed tag non-reporting rates, or both. Here, instead, we proposed a method that considers the mortality rate variability as a function of age/size of the released juveniles. Furthermore, the proposed method can disentangle natural from fishing mortality, analyzing the temporal distribution of the captures reported by fishermen from multiple release events. This method is demonstrated with a restocking program of a top-predator marine fish, the meagre (Argyrosomus regius), in the Balearic Islands. The estimated natural mortality just after release was very high for young fish (m 0 = 0.126 day-1 for fish 180 days old), but it was close to zero for large/old fish. These large/old fish were more resilient to wild conditions, although a long time was needed to achieve a relevant reduction in natural mortality. Conversely, these large/old fish were more vulnerable to fishing, creating a trade-off in survival. The release age that maximizes the number of survivors after, for example, one year at liberty was estimated to be 1,173 days. However, the production cost of relatively old fish is high, and only a few fish can be produced and released within a realistic budget. Therefore, in the case of the meagre, increasing the number of released fish will have no or scarce effects on restocking success. Conversely, it is advisable implement measures to reduce the high natural mortality of young juveniles and/or the length of time needed to improve fish resilience. PMID:26394242

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Ramiro, Diego; Garcia, Sara; Casado, Yolanda; Cilek, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-05-01

Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Language and infant mortality in a large Canadian province.

PubMed

Auger, N; Bilodeau-Bertrand, M; Costopoulos, A

2016-10-01

Infant mortality in minority populations of Canada is poorly understood, despite evidence of ethnic inequality in other countries. We studied infant mortality in different linguistic groups of Quebec, and assessed how language and deprivation impacted rates over time. Population-level study of vital statistics data for 1,985,287 live births and 10,283 infant deaths reported in Quebec from 1989 through 2012. We computed infant mortality rates for French, English, and foreign languages according to level of material deprivation. Using Kitagawa's method, we evaluated the impact of changes in mortality rates, and population distribution of language groups, on infant mortality in the province. Infant mortality declined from 6.05 to 4.61 per 1000 between 1989-1994 and 2007-2012. Most of the decline was driven by Francophones who contributed 1.39 fewer deaths per 1000 births over time, and Anglophones of wealthy and middle socio-economic status who contributed 0.13 fewer deaths per 1000 births. The foreign language population and poor Anglophones contributed more births over time, including 0.08 and 0.02 more deaths per 1000 births, respectively. Mortality decreased for Francophones and Anglophones in each level of deprivation. Rates were lower for foreign languages, but increased over time, especially for the poor. Infant mortality rates decreased for Francophones and Anglophones in Quebec, but increased for foreign languages. Poor Anglophones and individuals of foreign languages contributed more births over time, and slowed the decrease in infant mortality. Language may be useful for identifying inequality in infant mortality in multicultural nations. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two methods of assessing the mortality factors affecting the larvae and pupae of Cameraria ohridella in the leaves of Aesculus hippocastanum in Switzerland and Bulgaria.

PubMed

Girardoz, S; Tomov, R; Eschen, R; Quicke, D L J; Kenis, M

2007-10-01

The horse-chestnut leaf miner, Cameraria ohridella, is an invasive alien species defoliating horse-chestnut, a popular ornamental tree in Europe. This paper presents quantitative data on mortality factors affecting larvae and pupae of the leaf miner in Switzerland and Bulgaria, both in urban and forest environments. Two sampling methods were used and compared: a cohort method, consisting of the surveying of pre-selected mines throughout their development, and a grab sampling method, consisting of single sets of leaves collected and dissected at regular intervals. The total mortality per generation varied between 14 and 99%. Mortality was caused by a variety of factors, including parasitism, host feeding, predation by birds and arthropods, plant defence reaction, leaf senescence, intra-specific competition and inter-specific competition with a fungal disease. Significant interactions were found between mortality factors and sampling methods, countries, environments and generation. No mortality factor was dominant throughout the sites, generations and methods tested. Plant defence reactions constituted the main mortality factor for the first two larval stages, whereas predation by birds and arthropods and parasitism were more important in older larvae and pupae. Mortality caused by leaf senescence was often the dominant mortality factor in the last annual generation. The cohort method detected higher mortality rates than the grab sampling method. In particular, mortality by plant defence reaction and leaf senescence were better assessed using the cohort method, which is, therefore, recommended for life table studies on leaf miners.

Mortality rates by occupation in Korea: a nationwide, 13-year follow-up study

PubMed Central

Lee, Hye-Eun; Kim, Hyoung-Ryoul; Chung, Yun Kyung; Kang, Seong-Kyu; Kim, Eun-A

2016-01-01

Objective The present study sought to identify inequalities in cause-specific mortality across different occupational groups in Korea. Methods The cohort included Korean workers enrolled in the national employment insurance programme between 1995 and 2000. Mortality was determined by matching death between 1995 and 2008 according to a nationwide registry of the Korea National Statistical Office. The cohort was divided into nine occupational groups according to the Korean Standard Occupational Classification (KSOC). Age-standardised mortality rates of each subcohort were calculated. Results The highest age-standardised mortality rate was identified in KSOC 6 (agricultural, forestry and fishery workers; male (M): 563.0 per 100 000, female (F): 206.0 per 100 000), followed by KSOC 9 (elementary occupations; M: 499.0, F: 163.4) and KSOC 8 (plant, machine operators and assemblers; M: 380.3, F: 157.8). The lowest rate occurred in KSOC 2 (professionals and related workers; M: 209.1, F: 93.3). Differences in mortality rates between KSOC 2 and KSOC 9 (M: 289.9, F: 70.1) and the rate ratio of KSCO9 to KSCO2 (M: 2.39, F: 1.75) were higher in men. The most prominent mortality rate difference was observed in external causes of death (M: 96.9, F: 21.6) and liver disease in men (38.3 per 100 000). Mental disease showed the highest rate ratio (M: 6.31, F: 13.00). Conclusions Substantial differences in mortality rates by occupation were identified. Main causes of death were injury, suicide and male liver disease. Development of policies to support occupations linked with a lower socioeconomic position should be prioritised. PMID:26920855

Governance matters: an ecological association between governance and child mortality

PubMed Central

Lin, Ro-Ting; Chien, Lung-Chang; Chen, Ya-Mei; Chan, Chang-Chuan

2014-01-01

Background Governance of a country may have widespread effects on the health of its population, yet little is known about the effect of governance on child mortality in a country that is undergoing urbanization, economic development, and disease control. Methods We obtained indicators of six dimensions of governance (perceptions of voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption) and national under-5 mortality rates for 149 countries between 1996 and 2010. We applied a semi-parametric generalized additive mixed model to examine associations after controlling for the effects of development factors (urbanization level and economy), disease control factors (hygienic conditions and vaccination rates), health expenditures, air quality, and time. Results Governance, development, and disease control showed clear inverse relations with the under-5 mortality rate (p<0.001). Per unit increases in governance, development, and disease control factors, the child mortality rate had a 0.901-, 0.823-, and 0.922-fold decrease, respectively, at fixed levels of the other two factors. Conclusions In the effort to reduce the global under-5 mortality rate, addressing a country's need for better governance is as important as improvements in development and disease control. PMID:24711600

Disparities in Cancer Mortality and Incidence Among American Indians and Alaska Natives in the United States

PubMed Central

Espey, David K.; Swan, Judith; Wiggins, Charles L.; Eheman, Christie; Kaur, Judith S.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We used improved data on American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) ancestry to provide an updated and comprehensive description of cancer mortality and incidence among AI/AN populations from 1990 to 2009. Methods. We linked the National Death Index and central cancer registry records independently to the Indian Health Service (IHS) patient registration database to improve identification of AI/AN persons in cancer mortality and incidence data, respectively. Analyses were restricted to non-Hispanic persons residing in Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties in 6 geographic regions of the United States. We compared age-adjusted mortality and incidence rates for AI/AN populations with White populations using rate ratios and mortality-to-incidence ratios. Trends were described using joinpoint analysis. Results. Cancer mortality and incidence rates for AI/AN persons compared with Whites varied by region and type of cancer. Trends in death rates showed that greater progress in cancer control was achieved for White populations compared with AI/AN populations over the last 2 decades. Conclusions. Spatial variations in mortality and incidence by type of cancer demonstrated both persistent and emerging challenges for cancer control in AI/AN populations. PMID:24754660

Forecasting the mortality rates using Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, R. I.; Ngataman, N.; Abrisam, W. N. A. Wan Mohd

2017-09-01

Improvement in life expectancies has driven further declines in mortality. The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent years because of its potential impact on population size and structure, social security systems, and (from an actuarial perspective) the life insurance and pensions industry worldwide. Among all forecasting methods, the Lee-Carter model has been widely accepted by the actuarial community and Heligman-Pollard model has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. Therefore, this paper only focuses on Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how accurately these two models will perform using Malaysian data. Since these models involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 8.0 (MATLAB 8.0) software will be used to estimate the parameters of the models. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) procedure is applied to acquire the forecasted parameters for both models as the forecasted mortality rates are obtained by using all the values of forecasted parameters. To investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecasted results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The results indicate that both models provide better results for male population. However, for the elderly female population, Heligman-Pollard model seems to underestimate to the mortality rates while Lee-Carter model seems to overestimate to the mortality rates.

Empirical study on impact of demographic and economic changes on pension cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Shaira; Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty

2014-06-01

A continuation of the same financial standard of living after retirement as before is very importance to retired person. The pension provider has a responsibility to ensure their employees receive the sufficient benefit after retirement and regularly monitor the factors that cause insufficient funds to pay benefit to retirees. Insufficient funds may be due to increased in pension cost. Some of the factors that increase the cost of pensions are changes in mortality rates and interest rates. This study will used these two factors to determine their sensitivity to pension cost. Two methods which are Accrued Benefit Cost Method and Projected Benefit Cost Method will be used to estimate pension cost. Interest rates has a inversely related to pension cost while mortality rates has a directly related to pension cost.

Mortality Trends from 2003 to 2009 among Adolescents and Young Adults in Rural Western Kenya Using a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Phillips-Howard, Penelope A.; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Hamel, Mary; Ackers, Marta; van Eijk, Anne M.; Orimba, Vincent; Hoog, Anja van’t; Beynon, Caryl; Vulule, John; Bellis, Mark A.; Slutsker, Laurence; deCock, Kevin; Breiman, Robert; Laserson, Kayla F.

2012-01-01

Background Targeted global efforts to improve survival of young adults need information on mortality trends; contributions from health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) are required. Methods and Findings This study aimed to explore changing trends in deaths among adolescents (15–19 years) and young adults (20–24 years), using census and verbal autopsy data in rural western Kenya using a HDSS. Mid-year population estimates were used to generate all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 population by age and gender, by communicable (CD) and non-communicable disease (NCD) causes. Linear trends from 2003 to 2009 were examined. In 2003, all-cause mortality rates of adolescents and young adults were 403 and 1,613 per 100,000 population, respectively, among females; and 217 and 716 per 100,000, respectively, among males. CD mortality rates among females and males 15–24 years were 500 and 191 per 100,000 (relative risk [RR] 2.6; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.7–4.0; p<0.001). NCD mortality rates in same aged females and males were similar (141 and 128 per 100,000, respectively; p = 0.76). By 2009, young adult female all-cause mortality rates fell 53% (χ2 for linear trend 30.4; p<0.001) and 61.5% among adolescent females (χ2 for linear trend 11.9; p<0.001). No significant CD mortality reductions occurred among males or for NCD mortality in either gender. By 2009, all-cause, CD, and NCD mortality rates were not significantly different between males and females, and among males, injuries equalled HIV as the top cause of death. Conclusions This study found significant reductions in adolescent and young adult female mortality rates, evidencing the effects of targeted public health programmes, however, all-cause and CD mortality rates among females remain alarmingly high. These data underscore the need to strengthen programmes and target strategies to reach both males and females, and to promote NCD as well as CD initiatives to reduce the mortality burden amongst both gender. PMID:23144796

Incidence and Short-term Mortality From Perforated Peptic Ulcer in Korea: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Bae, SeungJin; Shim, Ki-Nam; Kim, Nayoung; Kang, Jung Mook; Kim, Dong-Sook; Kim, Kyoung-Min; Cho, Yu Kyung; Jung, Sung Woo

2012-01-01

Background Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with serious health and economic outcomes. However, few studies have estimated the incidence and health outcomes of PPU using a nationally representative sample in Asia. We estimated age- and sex-specific incidence and short-term mortality from PPU among Koreans and investigated the risk factors for mortality associated with PPU development. Methods A retrospective population-based study was conducted from 2006 through 2007 using the Korean National Health Insurance claims database. A diagnostic algorithm was derived and validated to identify PPU patients, and PPU incidence rates and 30-day mortality rates were determined. Results From 2006 through 2007, the PPU incidence rate per 100 000 population was 4.4; incidence among men (7.53) was approximately 6 times that among women (1.24). Incidence significantly increased with advanced age, especially among women older than 50 years. Among 4258 PPU patients, 135 (3.15%) died within 30 days of the PPU event. The 30-day mortality rate increased with advanced age and reached almost 20% for patients older than 80 years. The 30-day mortality rate was 10% for women and 2% for men. Older age, being female, and higher comorbidity were independently associated with 30-day mortality rate among PPU patients in Korea. Conclusions Special attention should be paid to elderly women with high comorbidity who develop PPU. PMID:22955110

The suitability of using death certificates as a data source for cancer mortality assessment in Turkey

PubMed Central

Ulus, Tumer; Yurtseven, Eray; Cavdar, Sabanur; Erginoz, Ethem; Erdogan, M. Sarper

2012-01-01

Aim To compare the quality of the 2008 cancer mortality data of the Istanbul Directorate of Cemeteries (IDC) with the 2008 data of International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), and discuss the suitability of using this databank for estimations of cancer mortality in the future. Methods We used 2008 and 2010 death records of the IDC and compared it to TUIK and IARC data. Results According to the WHO statistics, in Turkey in 2008 there were 67 255 estimated cancer deaths. As the population of Turkey was 71 517 100, the cancer mortality rate was 9.4 per 10 000. According to the IDC statistics, the cancer mortality rate in Istanbul in 2008 was 5.97 per 10 000. Conclusion IDC estimates were higher than WHO estimates probably because WHO bases its estimates on a sample group and because of the restrictions of IDC data collection method. Death certificates could be a reliable and accurate data source for mortality statistics if the problems of data collection are solved. PMID:23100210

Standardized Thyroid Cancer Mortality in Korea between 1985 and 2010

PubMed Central

Choi, Yun Mi; Jang, Eun Kyung; Kwon, Hyemi; Jeon, Min Ji; Kim, Won Gu; Shong, Young Kee; Kim, Won Bae

2014-01-01

Background The prevalence of thyroid cancer has increased very rapidly in Korea. However, there is no published report focusing on thyroid cancer mortality in Korea. In this study, we aimed to evaluate standardized thyroid cancer mortality using data from Statistics Korea (the Statistical Office of Korea). Methods Population and mortality data from 1985 to 2010 were obtained from Statistics Korea. Age-standardized rates of thyroid cancer mortality were calculated according to the standard population of Korea, as well as World Health Organization (WHO) standard population and International Cancer Survival Standard (ICSS) population weights. Results The crude thyroid cancer mortality rate increased from 0.1 to 0.7 per 100,000 between 1985 and 2010. The pattern was the same for both sexes. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for thyroid cancer for Korean resident registration population increased from 0.19 to 0.67 between 1985 and 2000. However, it decreased slightly, from 0.67 to 0.55, between 2000 and 2010. When mortality was adjusted using the WHO standard population and ICSS population weights, the ASMR similarly increased until 2000, and then decreased between 2000 and 2010. Conclusion Thyroid cancer mortality increased until 2000 in Korea. It started to decrease from 2000. PMID:25559576

The method of expected number of deaths, 1786-1886-1986.

PubMed

Keiding, N

1987-04-01

"The method of expected number of deaths is an integral part of standardization of vital rates, which is one of the oldest statistical techniques. The expected number of deaths was calculated in 18th century actuarial mathematics...but the method seems to have been forgotten, and was reinvented in connection with 19th century studies of geographical and occupational variations of mortality.... It is noted that standardization of rates is intimately connected to the study of relative mortality, and a short description of very recent developments in the methodology of that area is included." (SUMMARY IN FRE) excerpt

26 CFR 1.1471-5 - Definitions applicable to section 1471.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... contract cannot exceed the aggregate premiums paid for the contract, less the sum of mortality, morbidity... actuarial valuation method, and (2) The mortality tables and interest rate(s)— (i) Prescribed pursuant to...

Mortality of Reserve Mining Company employees in relation to taconite dust exposure.

PubMed

Higgins, I T; Glassman, J H; Oh, M S; Cornell, R G

1983-11-01

Analysis of mortality among men who were employed by Reserve Mining Company from 1952 to 1976 has been carried out. Follow-up was conducted with standard methods, including searches by the Social Security Administration. Occupational exposures to dust were based on personal samples taken over the past five years by the industrial hygiene department of the company. Smoking habits were obtained by mailed questionnaires or telephone interviews. A modified life table method was used to compare death rates of the employees with those expected for white males in the state of Minnesota. Comparisons were also made with US rates for white males. The results showed that the death rates for all causes were significantly below expectation. Deaths from malignant diseases were marginally below those expected for the state. Exposures to total dust, to silica dust, or to fiber were low. There was no relationship between mortality and estimated lifetime dust exposures, nor was there any suggestion that deaths from malignant neoplasms were increased after 15 to 20 years latency. In contrast, there was a strong relationship between smoking habits and mortality from all causes, from cardiovascular diseases, and from cancer. This study does not suggest any increase in cancer mortality from taconite exposure.

Progression of Mortality due to Diseases of the Circulatory System and Human Development Index in Rio de Janeiro Municipalities.

PubMed

Soares, Gabriel Porto; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Silva, Nelson Albuquerque de Souza E; Oliveira, Glaucia Maria Moraes de

2016-10-01

Diseases of the circulatory system (DCS) are the major cause of death in Brazil and worldwide. To correlate the compensated and adjusted mortality rates due to DCS in the Rio de Janeiro State municipalities between 1979 and 2010 with the Human Development Index (HDI) from 1970 onwards. Population and death data were obtained in DATASUS/MS database. Mortality rates due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD), cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD) and DCS adjusted by using the direct method and compensated for ill-defined causes. The HDI data were obtained at the Brazilian Institute of Applied Research in Economics. The mortality rates and HDI values were correlated by estimating Pearson linear coefficients. The correlation coefficients between the mortality rates of census years 1991, 2000 and 2010 and HDI data of census years 1970, 1980 and 1991 were calculated with discrepancy of two demographic censuses. The linear regression coefficients were estimated with disease as the dependent variable and HDI as the independent variable. In recent decades, there was a reduction in mortality due to DCS in all Rio de Janeiro State municipalities, mainly because of the decline in mortality due to CBVD, which was preceded by an elevation in HDI. There was a strong correlation between the socioeconomic indicator and mortality rates. The HDI progression showed a strong correlation with the decline in mortality due to DCS, signaling to the relevance of improvements in life conditions.

Mortality among subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma at two respiratory disease clinics in Ontario

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, Murray M; Chapman, Kenneth R; McIvor, R Andrew; Sears, Malcolm R

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common; however, mortality rates among individuals with these diseases are not well studied in North America. OBJECTIVE: To investigate mortality rates and risk factors for premature death among subjects with COPD. METHODS: Subjects were identified from the lung function testing databases of two academic respiratory disease clinics in Hamilton and Toronto, Ontario. Mortality was ascertained by linkage to the Ontario mortality registry between 1992 and 2002, inclusive. Standardized mortality ratios were computed. Poisson regression of standardized mortality ratios and proportional hazards regression were performed to examine the multivariate effect of risk factors on the standardized mortality ratios and mortality hazards. RESULTS: Compared with the Ontario population, all-cause mortality was approximately doubled among subjects with COPD, but was lower than expected among subjects with asthma. The risk of mortality in patients with COPD was related to cigarette smoking, to the presence of comorbid conditons of ischemic heart disease and diabetes, and to Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease severity scores. Individuals living closer to traffic sources showed an elevated risk of death compared with those who lived further away from traffic sources. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates among subjects diagnosed with COPD were substantially elevated. There were several deaths attributed to asthma among subjects in the present study; however, overall, patients with asthma demonstrated lower mortality rates than the general population. Subjects with COPD need to be managed with attention devoted to both their respiratory disorders and related comorbidities. PMID:22187688

Suicide Rates in Aboriginal Communities in Labrador, Canada

PubMed Central

Pollock, Nathaniel J.; Mulay, Shree; Valcour, James

2016-01-01

Objectives. To compare suicide rates in Aboriginal communities in Labrador, including Innu, Inuit, and Southern Inuit, with the general population of Newfoundland, Canada. Methods. In partnership with Aboriginal governments, we conducted a population-based study to understand patterns of suicide mortality in Labrador. We analyzed suicide mortality data from 1993 to 2009 from the Vital Statistics Death Database. We combined this with community-based methods, including consultations with Elders, youths, mental health and community workers, primary care clinicians, and government decision-makers. Results. The suicide rate was higher in Labrador than in Newfoundland. This trend persisted across all age groups; however, the disparity was greatest among those aged 10 to 19 years. Males accounted for the majority of deaths, although suicide rates were elevated among females in the Inuit communities. When comparing Aboriginal subregions, the Innu and Inuit communities had the highest age-standardized mortality rates of, respectively, 165.6 and 114.0 suicides per 100 000 person-years. Conclusions. Suicide disproportionately affects Innu and Inuit populations in Labrador. Suicide rates were high among male youths and Inuit females. PMID:27196659

Estimation of mortality for stage-structured zooplankton populations: What is to be done?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohman, Mark D.

2012-05-01

Estimation of zooplankton mortality rates in field populations is a challenging task that some contend is inherently intractable. This paper examines several of the objections that are commonly raised to efforts to estimate mortality. We find that there are circumstances in the field where it is possible to sequentially sample the same population and to resolve biologically caused mortality, albeit with error. Precision can be improved with sampling directed by knowledge of the physical structure of the water column, combined with adequate sample replication. Intercalibration of sampling methods can make it possible to sample across the life history in a quantitative manner. Rates of development can be constrained by laboratory-based estimates of stage durations from temperature- and food-dependent functions, mesocosm studies of molting rates, or approximation of development rates from growth rates, combined with the vertical distributions of organisms in relation to food and temperature gradients. Careful design of field studies guided by the assumptions of specific estimation models can lead to satisfactory mortality estimates, but model uncertainty also needs to be quantified. We highlight additional issues requiring attention to further advance the field, including the need for linked cooperative studies of the rates and causes of mortality of co-occurring holozooplankton and ichthyoplankton.

[Time analysis of mortality from cerebrovascular diseases in Andalucia (1975-1999)].

PubMed

Cayuela-Domínguez, A; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; Iglesias-Bonilla, P; Mir-Rivera, P; Martínez-Fernández, E

In previous publications we analysed the tendency of mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Andalusia over the period 1975-1992, and we observed a marked decrease in the mortality rates in both sexes. AIMS. To describe the evolution of mortality from CVD in Andalusia throughout the period 1975-1999. Deaths from CVD over the period 1975 1999 were obtained from the Instituto Andaluz de Estadística. We employed the direct method of standardisation of rates (world standard population). The rates were subjected to logarithmic transformations and the regression lines were adjusted. A considerable decrease was found in the rates: 3.9% in males and 4.0% in females. The drop in truncated rates (35 64 years old) was greater in women ( 5.9%) than in men ( 4.3%). Our work shows a marked and continuous decrease in mortality from CVD in Andalusia (1975-1999). In accordance with the process of aging of the population, the magnitude of CVD measured in terms of deaths, invalidity and health costs still represents a great challenge for preventative and health care policies.

Testing survey-based methods for rapid monitoring of child mortality, with implications for summary birth history data.

PubMed

Brady, Eoghan; Hill, Kenneth

2017-01-01

Under-five mortality estimates are increasingly used in low and middle income countries to target interventions and measure performance against global development goals. Two new methods to rapidly estimate under-5 mortality based on Summary Birth Histories (SBH) were described in a previous paper and tested with data available. This analysis tests the methods using data appropriate to each method from 5 countries that lack vital registration systems. SBH data are collected across many countries through censuses and surveys, and indirect methods often rely upon their quality to estimate mortality rates. The Birth History Imputation method imputes data from a recent Full Birth History (FBH) onto the birth, death and age distribution of the SBH to produce estimates based on the resulting distribution of child mortality. DHS FBHs and MICS SBHs are used for all five countries. In the implementation, 43 of 70 estimates are within 20% of validation estimates (61%). Mean Absolute Relative Error is 17.7.%. 1 of 7 countries produces acceptable estimates. The Cohort Change method considers the differences in births and deaths between repeated Summary Birth Histories at 1 or 2-year intervals to estimate the mortality rate in that period. SBHs are taken from Brazil's PNAD Surveys 2004-2011 and validated against IGME estimates. 2 of 10 estimates are within 10% of validation estimates. Mean absolute relative error is greater than 100%. Appropriate testing of these new methods demonstrates that they do not produce sufficiently good estimates based on the data available. We conclude this is due to the poor quality of most SBH data included in the study. This has wider implications for the next round of censuses and future household surveys across many low- and middle- income countries.

Completeness and underestimation of cancer mortality rate in Iran: a report from Fars Province in southern Iran.

PubMed

Marzban, Maryam; Haghdoost, Ali-Akbar; Dortaj, Eshagh; Bahrampour, Abbas; Zendehdel, Kazem

2015-03-01

The incidence and mortality rates of cancer are increasing worldwide, particularly in the developing countries. Valid data are needed for measuring the cancer burden and making appropriate decisions toward cancer control. We evaluated the completeness of death registry with regard to cancer death in Fars Province, I. R. of Iran. We used data from three sources in Fars Province, including the national death registry (source 1), the follow-up data from the pathology-based cancer registry (source 2) and hospital based records (source 3) during 2004 - 2006. We used the capture-recapture method and estimated underestimation and the true age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for cancer. We used log-linear (LL) modeling for statistical analysis. We observed 1941, 480, and 355 cancer deaths in sources 1, 2 and 3, respectively. After data linkage, we estimated that mortality registry had about 40% underestimation for cancer death. After adjustment for this underestimation rate, the ASMR of cancer in the Fars Province for all cancer types increased from 44.8 per 100,000 (95% CI: 42.8 - 46.7) to 76.3 per 100,000 (95% CI: 73.3 - 78.9), accounting for 3309 (95% CI: 3151 - 3293) cancer deaths annually. The mortality rate of cancer is considerably higher than the rates reported by the routine registry in Iran. Improvement in the validity and completeness of the mortality registry is needed to estimate the true mortality rate caused by cancer in Iran.

[Mortality from suicides: Mexico, 1990-2001].

PubMed

Puentes-Rosas, Esteban; López-Nieto, Leopoldo; Martínez-Monroy, Tania

2004-08-01

To describe mortality from suicides in Mexico in 2001, as well as the main changes in the methods used to commit suicide and in trends by age and gender that have been observed since 1990, both for the country as a whole and for each state. For this descriptive study we utilized as information sources the official mortality records of the National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática) for the period of 1990 through 2001. To calculate mortality rates we used the populations estimated in 2002 by the National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población). Mortality was described by sex, age group, and state, along with the changes seen over the period of 1990 through 2001 in the rates and methods of suicide. We used the direct method to standardize the rates, using as a reference the population data for the year 2000. To make statistical comparisons of the trends by age group and gender we used a test of parallelism utilizing the F statistic. The level of statistical significance of differences in suicide methods was determined with the chi-square test. During 2001, 3,784 suicides were registered (3,110 of them in men and 674 in women), which represents a rate of 3.72 deaths from suicide per 100,000 persons, in a total national population of 101.8 million inhabitants. The states with the highest suicide mortality were Campeche and Tabasco (9.68 and 8.47 per 100,000, respectively). The lowest rates were seen in Chiapas and the state of Mexico (1.03 and 1.99 per 100,000, respectively). In 2001, mortality from suicides per 100,000 persons was 6.14 in men and 1.32 in women. The greatest increase by age group was seen in women 11-19 years old (from 0.8 per 100,000 in 1990 to 2.27 per 100,000 in 2001). The largest increase in men also occurred among those 11-19 years old (from 2.6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 4.5 per 100,000 in 2001). The highest rate (13.62 per 100,000 persons) was seen in men over 65 years of age. There were changes in suicide methods, with hanging now being the method most frequently used by both men and women. Suicide is a growing problem in Mexico, and controlling it requires immediate steps. The rapid increase in this phenomenon, particularly among young men and young women, should produce a call to action to quickly implement measures aimed at reducing the magnitude of suicide.

Predicting the mortality in geriatric patients with dengue fever

PubMed Central

Huang, Hung-Sheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Ye, Je-Chiuan; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Lin, Hung-Jung

2017-01-01

Abstract Geriatric patients have high mortality for dengue fever (DF); however, there is no adequate method to predict mortality in geriatric patients. Therefore, we conducted this study to develop a tool in an attempt to address this issue. We conducted a retrospective case–control study in a tertiary medical center during the DF outbreak in Taiwan in 2015. All the geriatric patients (aged ≥65 years) who visited the study hospital between September 1, 2015, and December 31, 2015, were recruited into this study. Variables included demographic data, vital signs, symptoms and signs, comorbidities, living status, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality. We investigated independent mortality predictors by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis and then combined these predictors to predict the mortality. A total of 627 geriatric DF patients were recruited, with a mortality rate of 4.3% (27 deaths and 600 survivals). The following 4 independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma [Glasgow Coma Scale: ≤8; adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 11.36; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.89–68.19], bedridden (AOR: 10.46; 95% CI: 1.58–69.16), severe hepatitis (aspartate aminotransferase >1000 U/L; AOR: 96.08; 95% CI: 14.11–654.40), and renal failure (serum creatinine >2 mg/dL; AOR: 6.03; 95% CI: 1.50–24.24). When we combined the predictors, we found that the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for patients with 1 or more predictors were 70.37%, 88.17%, 21.11%, and 98.51%, respectively. For patients with 2 or more predictors, the respective values were 33.33%, 99.44%, 57.14%, and 98.51%. We developed a new method to help decision making. Among geriatric patients with none of the predictors, the survival rate was 98.51%, and among those with 2 or more predictors, the mortality rate was 57.14%. This method is simple and useful, especially in an outbreak. PMID:28906367

Predicting the mortality in geriatric patients with dengue fever.

PubMed

Huang, Hung-Sheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Ye, Je-Chiuan; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Lin, Hung-Jung

2017-09-01

Geriatric patients have high mortality for dengue fever (DF); however, there is no adequate method to predict mortality in geriatric patients. Therefore, we conducted this study to develop a tool in an attempt to address this issue.We conducted a retrospective case-control study in a tertiary medical center during the DF outbreak in Taiwan in 2015. All the geriatric patients (aged ≥65 years) who visited the study hospital between September 1, 2015, and December 31, 2015, were recruited into this study. Variables included demographic data, vital signs, symptoms and signs, comorbidities, living status, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality. We investigated independent mortality predictors by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis and then combined these predictors to predict the mortality.A total of 627 geriatric DF patients were recruited, with a mortality rate of 4.3% (27 deaths and 600 survivals). The following 4 independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma [Glasgow Coma Scale: ≤8; adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 11.36; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.89-68.19], bedridden (AOR: 10.46; 95% CI: 1.58-69.16), severe hepatitis (aspartate aminotransferase >1000 U/L; AOR: 96.08; 95% CI: 14.11-654.40), and renal failure (serum creatinine >2 mg/dL; AOR: 6.03; 95% CI: 1.50-24.24). When we combined the predictors, we found that the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for patients with 1 or more predictors were 70.37%, 88.17%, 21.11%, and 98.51%, respectively. For patients with 2 or more predictors, the respective values were 33.33%, 99.44%, 57.14%, and 98.51%.We developed a new method to help decision making. Among geriatric patients with none of the predictors, the survival rate was 98.51%, and among those with 2 or more predictors, the mortality rate was 57.14%. This method is simple and useful, especially in an outbreak.

Observational intensity bias associated with illness adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Staiger, Douglas O; Sharp, Sandra M; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Bevan, Gwyn; McPherson, Klim; Welch, H Gilbert

2013-01-01

Objective To determine the bias associated with frequency of visits by physicians in adjusting for illness, using diagnoses recorded in administrative databases. Setting Claims data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Design Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877). Main outcome measures The effect of illness adjustment on regional mortality and spending rates using standard and visit corrected illness methods for adjustment. The standard method adjusts using comorbidity measures based on diagnoses listed in administrative databases; the modified method corrects these measures for the frequency of visits by physicians. Three conventions for measuring comorbidity are used: the Charlson comorbidity index, Iezzoni chronic conditions, and hierarchical condition categories risk scores. Results The visit corrected Charlson comorbidity index explained more of the variation in age, sex, and race mortality across the 306 hospital referral regions than did the standard index (R2=0.21 v 0.11, P<0.001) and, compared with sex and race adjusted mortality, reduced regional variation, whereas adjustment using the standard Charlson comorbidity index increased it. Although visit corrected and age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates were similar in hospital referral regions with the highest and lowest fifths of visits, adjustment using the standard index resulted in a rate that was 18% lower in the highest fifth (46.4 v 56.3 deaths per 1000, P<0.001). Age, sex, and race adjusted spending as well as visit corrected spending was more than 30% greater in the highest fifth of visits than in the lowest fifth, but only 12% greater after adjustment using the standard index. Similar results were obtained using the Iezzoni and the hierarchical condition categories conventions for measuring comorbidity. Conclusion The rates of visits by physicians introduce substantial bias when regional mortality and spending rates are adjusted for illness using comorbidity measures based on the observed number of diagnoses recorded in Medicare’s administrative database. Adjusting without correction for regional variation in visit rates tends to make regions with high rates of visits seem to have lower mortality and lower costs, and vice versa. Visit corrected comorbidity measures better explain variation in age, sex, and race mortality than observed measures, and reduce observational intensity bias. PMID:23430282

Paths to Health Equity – Local Area Variation in Progress toward Eliminating Breast Cancer Mortality Disparities, 1990–2009

PubMed Central

Rust, George; Zhang, Shun; Malhotra, Khusdeep; Reese, Leroy; McRoy, Luceta; Baltrus, Peter; Caplan, Lee; Levine, Robert S

2015-01-01

Background U.S. breast cancer deaths have been declining since 1989, but African American women are still more likely than white women to die of breast cancer. Black-white disparities in breast cancer mortality rate-ratios have actually been increasing. Methods Across 762 U.S. counties with enough deaths to generate reliable rates, we examined county-level age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rates for women aged 35–74 during the period 1989–2010. Twenty-two years of mortality data generated 20 three-year rolling average data points, each centered on a specific year from 1990 – 2009. We used mixed linear models to group each county into one of four mutually exclusive trend patterns. We also categorized the most recent three-year average black breast cancer mortality rate for each county as being worse than or not worse than the breast cancer mortality rate for the total U.S. population. Results More than half of counties (54%) showed persistent, unchanging disparities. Roughly one in four (24%) had a divergent pattern of worsening black-white disparities. However, 10.5% of counties sustained racial equality over the 20-year period, and 11.7% of counties actually showed a converging pattern from high disparities to greater equality. Twenty-three counties had 2008–2010 black mortality rates better than the U.S. average mortality rate. Conclusion Disparities are not inevitable. Four U.S. counties have sustained both optimal and equitable black outcomes, as measured by both absolute (better than US average) and relative (equality in local black-white rate-ratio) benchmarks for decades, while six counties have shown a path from disparities to health equity. PMID:25906833

Suicide among young people in the Americas.

PubMed

Quinlan-Davidson, Meaghen; Sanhueza, Antonio; Espinosa, Isabel; Escamilla-Cejudo, José Antonio; Maddaleno, Matilde

2014-03-01

To examine suicide mortality trends among young people (10-24 years of age(1)) in selected countries and territories of the Americas. An ecological study was conducted using a time series of suicide mortality data from 19 countries and one territory in the Region of the Americas from 2001 to 2008, comprising 90.3% of the regional population. The analyses included age-adjusted suicide mortality rates, average annual variation in suicide mortality rates, and relative risks for suicide, by age and sex. The mean suicide rate for the selected study period and countries/territory was 5.7/100,000 young people (10-24 years), with suicide rates higher among males (7.7/100,000) than females (2.4/100,000). Countries with the highest total suicide mortality rates among young people (10-24 years) were Guyana, Suriname, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chile, and Ecuador; countries with the lowest total suicide mortality rates included Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, and Brazil, and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico. During this period, there was a significant increase in suicide mortality rates among young people in the following countries: Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, and Suriname; countries with significant decreases in suicide mortality rates included Canada, Colombia, Cuba, El Salvador, and Venezuela. The three leading suicide methods in the Americas were hanging, firearms, and poisoning. Some countries of the Americas have experienced a rise in adolescent and youth suicide during the study period, with males at a higher risk of committing suicide than females. Adolescent and youth suicide policies and programs are recommended, to curb this problem. Methodological limitations are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The predictive value of resting heart rate following osmotherapy in brain injury: back to basics

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The importance of resting heart rate as a prognostic factor was described in several studies. An elevated heart rate is an independent risk factor for adverse cardiovascular events and total mortality in patients with coronary artery disease, chronic heart failure, and the general population. Also heart rate is elevated in the Multi Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) and the mortality due to MODS is highly correlated with inadequate sinus tachycardia. To evaluate the value of resting heart rate in predicting mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury along scoring systems like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS). Method By analyzing data which was collected from an open labeled randomized clinical trial that compared the different means of osmotherapy (mannitol vs bolus or infusion hypertonic saline), heart rate, GCS, APACHE II and SOFA score were measured at baseline and daily for 7 days up to 60 days and the relationship between elevated heart rate and mortality during the first 7 days and 60th day were assessed. Results After adjustments for confounding factors, although there was no difference in mean heart rate between either groups of alive and expired patients, however, we have found a relative correlation between 60th day mortality rate and resting heart rate (P=0.07). Conclusion Heart rate can be a prognostic factor for estimating mortality rate in brain injury patients along with APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with brain injury. PMID:23351393

Countries with women inequalities have higher stroke mortality.

PubMed

Kim, Young Dae; Jung, Yo Han; Caso, Valeria; Bushnell, Cheryl D; Saposnik, Gustavo

2017-10-01

Background Stroke outcomes can differ by women's legal or socioeconomic status. Aim We investigated whether differences in women's rights or gender inequalities were associated with stroke mortality at the country-level. Methods We used age-standardized stroke mortality data from 2008 obtained from the World Health Organization. We compared female-to-male stroke mortality ratio and stroke mortality rates in women and men between countries according to 50 indices of women's rights from Women, Business and the Law 2016 and Gender Inequality Index from the Human Development Report by the United Nations Development Programme. We also compared stroke mortality rate and income at the country-level. Results In our study, 176 countries with data available on stroke mortality rate in 2008 and indices of women's rights were included. There were 46 (26.1%) countries where stroke mortality in women was higher than stroke mortality in men. Among them, 29 (63%) countries were located in Sub-Saharan African region. After adjusting by country income level, higher female-to-male stroke mortality ratio was associated with 14 indices of women's rights, including differences in getting a job or opening a bank account, existence of domestic violence legislation, and inequalities in ownership right to property. Moreover, there was a higher female-to-male stroke mortality ratio among countries with higher Gender Inequality Index (r = 0.397, p < 0.001). Gender Inequality Index was more likely to be associated with stroke mortality rate in women than that in men (p < 0.001). Conclusions Our study suggested that the gender inequality status is associated with women's stroke outcomes.

Synoptic analysis of heat-related mortality in Sydney, Australia, 1993-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaneckova, Pavla; Hart, Melissa A.; Beggs, Paul J.; de Dear, Richard J.

2008-07-01

Exposure to extremely hot weather has been associated with increased mortality. Temporal Synoptic Index is an effective method used to analyze the relationship between mortality and combined weather factors. The aim of this study is to examine the short-term effect of ambient heat on mortality in Sydney during the warmest 6-month period (October-March) for the years 1993-2001. Eleven synoptic categories were related to daily mortality rates in Sydney. Two distinctive warm categories were associated with significantly higher mortality rates. Hot, dry and relatively rare Synoptic Category 7 (SC7) days showed the highest daily mortality rates, followed by warm and humid SC3 days, which occurred more frequently. Increased mortality was more pronounced among the elderly population, and gender-stratified analysis showed women to be more vulnerable. Mortality on the day of the weather event was higher than 1 or 2 days after the adverse synoptic situation. Ozone and particulate matter smaller than 10 µm were found at high concentrations in SC3 and SC7, respectively, but their impact on mortality was not clear. The population of Sydney was found to be vulnerable to high temperatures, with a lower susceptibility than those of some cities in the USA and Europe.

Forecasting selected specific age mortality rate of Malaysia by using Lee-Carter model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukri Kamaruddin, Halim; Ismail, Noriszura

2018-03-01

Observing mortality pattern and trend is an important subject for any country to maintain a good social-economy in the next projection years. The declining in mortality trend gives a good impression of what a government has done towards macro citizen in one nation. Selecting a particular mortality model can be a tricky based on the approached method adapting. Lee-Carter model is adapted because of its simplicity and reliability of the outcome results with approach of regression. Implementation of Lee-Carter in finding a fitted model and hence its projection has been used worldwide in most of mortality research in developed countries. This paper studies the mortality pattern of Malaysia in the past by using original model of Lee-Carter (1992) and hence its cross-sectional observation for a single age. The data is indexed by age of death and year of death from 1984 to 2012, in which are supplied by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The results are modelled by using RStudio and the keen analysis will focus on the trend and projection of mortality rate and age specific mortality rate in the future. This paper can be extended to different variants extensions of Lee-Carter or any stochastic mortality tool by using Malaysia mortality experience as a centre of the main issue.

Dying for a smoke: how much does differential mortality of smokers affect estimated life-course smoking prevalence?

PubMed

Christopoulou, Rebekka; Han, Jeffrey; Jaber, Ahmed; Lillard, Dean R

2011-01-01

An extensive literature uses reconstructed historical smoking rates by birth-cohort to inform anti-smoking policies. This paper examines whether and how these rates change when one adjusts for differential mortality of smokers and non-smokers. Using retrospectively reported data from the US (Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1986, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005), the UK (British Household Panel Survey, 1999, 2002), and Russia (Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Study, 2000), we generate life-course smoking prevalence rates by age-cohort. With cause-specific death rates from secondary sources and an improved method, we correct for differential mortality, and we test whether adjusted and unadjusted rates statistically differ. With US data (National Health Interview Survey, 1967-2004), we also compare contemporaneously measured smoking prevalence rates with the equivalent rates from retrospective data. We find that differential mortality matters only for men. For Russian men over age 70 and US and UK men over age 80 unadjusted smoking prevalence understates the true prevalence. The results using retrospective and contemporaneous data are similar. Differential mortality bias affects our understanding of smoking habits of old cohorts and, therefore, of inter-generational patterns of smoking. Unless one focuses on the young, policy recommendations based on unadjusted smoking rates may be misleading. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using quantile regression to examine the effects of inequality across the mortality distribution in the U.S. counties

PubMed Central

Yang, Tse-Chuan; Chen, Vivian Yi-Ju; Shoff, Carla; Matthews, Stephen A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. has experienced a resurgence of income inequality in the past decades. The evidence regarding the mortality implications of this phenomenon has been mixed. This study employs a rarely used method in mortality research, quantile regression (QR), to provide insight into the ongoing debate of whether income inequality is a determinant of mortality and to investigate the varying relationship between inequality and mortality throughout the mortality distribution. Analyzing a U.S. dataset where the five-year (1998–2002) average mortality rates were combined with other county-level covariates, we found that the association between inequality and mortality was not constant throughout the mortality distribution and the impact of inequality on mortality steadily increased until the 80th percentile. When accounting for all potential confounders, inequality was significantly and positively related to mortality; however, this inequality–mortality relationship did not hold across the mortality distribution. A series of Wald tests confirmed this varying inequality–mortality relationship, especially between the lower and upper tails. The large variation in the estimated coefficients of the Gini index suggested that inequality had the greatest influence on those counties with a mortality rate of roughly 9.95 deaths per 1000 population (80th percentile) compared to any other counties. Furthermore, our results suggest that the traditional analytic methods that focus on mean or median value of the dependent variable can be, at most, applied to a narrow 20 percent of observations. This study demonstrates the value of QR. Our findings provide some insight as to why the existing evidence for the inequality–mortality relationship is mixed and suggest that analytical issues may play a role in clarifying whether inequality is a robust determinant of population health. PMID:22497847

[Mortality of working age population in Russia and indusrial countries in Europe: trends of the last two decades].

PubMed

Izmerov, N F; Tikhonova, G I; Gorchakova, T Iu

2014-01-01

The purpose of the study was to carry out comparative analysis of the status and trends in mortality of male and female population of working age (15-59 (54) years) in Russia and the EU-27. Based on official Russian (Rosstat) data, on the global database of the World Health Organization's cause of death (The WHO Mortality Database, WHOMD) and databases The Human Mortality Database (HMD) of the sex-age composition of the population and the number of deaths from certain causes of death by age and sex standardized (direct method) mortality rates of working age population from selected causes of death for 1990 and 2011 in Russia and the average for the EU-27 were calculated. Analysis of trends in mortality of male and female population of working age in Russia over the past two decades shows that, despite the positive changes in during last six years, in 2011, age-standardized mortality rates remained above the 1990 level for most causes of death. During the same period in the EU-27 mortality in men (15-59 years) and women (15-54 years) increased from almost all causes ofdeath, which led to an even greatergap between Russia and developed countries on this indicator: standardized mortality rate of the male population of Russia in 1990 was higher than in the EU-27 by 2.1 times, and by 2011 the gap had increased to 3.5 times. The women in the 1990 had 1.5 times higher standardized mortality rates, and by 2011 the gap had increased to 2.7 times. Despite a steady decline in the mortality rates of working age population after 2005, its level in 2012 was still higher than the one of 1990 for both men and women, which led to a further increase in the gap between the age-standardized coefficients of mortality rate of working age population in Russia and the countries of European Community-27 (15-59 (54)). Faster reduction of mortality rate in the working age population will preserve Russian population and its labor potential.

Population Causes and Consequences of Leading Chronic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Prevailing Explanations

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David

2008-01-01

Context The mortality numbers and rates of chronic disease are rising faster in developing than in developed countries. This article compares prevailing explanations of population chronic disease trends with theoretical and empirical models of population chronic disease epidemiology and assesses some economic consequences of the growth of chronic diseases in developing countries based on the experiences of developed countries. Methods Four decades of male mortality rates of cardiovascular and chronic noncommunicable diseases were regressed on changes in and levels of country income per capita, market integration, foreign direct investment, urbanization rates, and population aging in fifty-six countries for which comparative data were available. Neoclassical economic growth models were used to estimate the effect of the mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable diseases on economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Findings Processes of economic growth, market integration, foreign direct investment, and urbanization were significant determinants of long-term changes in mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, and the observed relationships with these social and economic factors were roughly three times stronger than the relationships with the population's aging. In low-income countries, higher levels of country income per capita, population urbanization, foreign direct investment, and market integration were associated with greater mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, less increased or sometimes reduced rates in middle-income countries, and decreased rates in high-income countries. Each 10 percent increase in the working-age mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable disease decreased economic growth rates by close to a half percent. Conclusions Macrosocial and macroeconomic forces are major determinants of population rises in chronic disease mortality, and some prevailing demographic explanations, such as population aging, are incomplete on methodological, empirical, and policy grounds. Rising chronic disease mortality rates will significantly reduce economic growth in developing countries and further widen the health and economic gap between the developed and developing world. PMID:18522614

[Estimation of infant and child mortality in the eastern provinces of Cuba].

PubMed

Gonzalez, G; Herrera, L

1986-01-01

An estimate of infant and child mortality in the eastern provinces of Cuba is presented using the Brass method as adapted by Trussell. "Estimations by urban and rural zones are also performed within the provinces studied, and results are compared with those possible to obtain by continuous statistics. Results obtained show that in the eastern [part] of the country Holguin and Guantanamo are the provinces with highest infantile mortality rates, and the lowest rates correspond to Granma, followed by Santiago de Cuba." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

Enhanced Surveillance for Fatal Dengue-Like Acute Febrile Illness in Puerto Rico, 2010-2012

PubMed Central

Rivera, Aidsa; Torres-Velasquez, Brenda; Hunsperger, Elizabeth A.; Munoz-Jordan, Jorge L.; Sharp, Tyler M.; Rivera, Irma; Sanabria, Dario; Blau, Dianna M.; Galloway, Renee; Torres, Jose; Rodriguez, Rosa; Serrano, Javier; Chávez, Carlos; Dávila, Francisco; Perez-Padilla, Janice; Ellis, Esther M.; Caballero, Gladys; Wright, Laura; Zaki, Sherif R.; Deseda, Carmen; Rodriguez, Edda; Margolis, Harold S.

2016-01-01

Background Dengue is a leading cause of morbidity throughout the tropics; however, accurate population-based estimates of mortality rates are not available. Methods/Principal Findings We established the Enhanced Fatal Acute Febrile Illness Surveillance System (EFASS) to estimate dengue mortality rates in Puerto Rico. Healthcare professionals submitted serum and tissue specimens from patients who died from a dengue-like acute febrile illness, and death certificates were reviewed to identify additional cases. Specimens were tested for markers of dengue virus (DENV) infection by molecular, immunologic, and immunohistochemical methods, and were also tested for West Nile virus, Leptospira spp., and other pathogens based on histopathologic findings. Medical records were reviewed and clinical data abstracted. A total of 311 deaths were identified, of which 58 (19%) were DENV laboratory-positive. Dengue mortality rates were 1.05 per 100,000 population in 2010, 0.16 in 2011 and 0.36 in 2012. Dengue mortality was highest among adults 19–64 years and seniors ≥65 years (1.17 and 1.66 deaths per 100,000, respectively). Other pathogens identified included 34 Leptospira spp. cases and one case of Burkholderia pseudomallei and Neisseria meningitidis. Conclusions/Significance EFASS showed that dengue mortality rates among adults were higher than reported for influenza, and identified a leptospirosis outbreak and index cases of melioidosis and meningitis. PMID:27727271

Antihypertensive treatment and US trends in stroke mortality, 1962 to 1980.

PubMed Central

Casper, M; Wing, S; Strogatz, D; Davis, C E; Tyroler, H A

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVES. This study examines the association between increases in antihypertensive pharmacotherapy and declines in stroke mortality among 96 US groups stratified by race, sex, age, metropolitan status, and region from 1962 to 1980. METHODS. Data on the prevalence of controlled hypertension and socioeconomic profiles were obtained from three successive national health surveys. Stroke mortality rates were calculated using data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Bureau of the Census. The association between controlled hypertension trends and stroke mortality declines was assessed with weighted regression. RESULTS. Prior to 1972, there was no association between trends in controlled hypertension and stroke mortality declines (beta = 0.04, P = .69). After 1972, groups with larger increases in controlled hypertension experienced slower rates of decline in stroke mortality (beta = 0.16, P = .003). Faster rates of decline were modestly but consistently related to improvements in socioeconomic indicators only for the post-1972 period. CONCLUSIONS. These results do not support the hypothesis that increased antihypertensive pharmacotherapy has been the primary determinant of recent declines in stroke mortality. Additional studies should address the association between declining stroke mortality and trends in socioeconomic resources, dietary patterns, and cigarette smoking. PMID:1456333

Mortality among patients with hypertension from 1995 to 2005: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Tu, Karen; Chen, Zhongliang; Lipscombe, Lorraine L.

2008-01-01

Background We have reported that the prevalence of diagnosed hypertension increased by 60% from 1995 to 2005 in Ontario. In the present study, we asked whether this increase is explained by a decrease in the mortality rate. Methods We performed a population-based cohort study using linked administrative data for Ontario, a Canadian province with over 12 million residents. We identified prevalent cases of hypertension using a validated case-definition algorithm for hypertension, and we examined trends in mortality from 1995 to 2005 among adults aged 20 years and older with hypertension. Results The age-and sex-adjusted mortality among patients with hypertension decreased from 11.3 per 1000 people in 1995 to 9.6 per 1000 in 2005 (p < 0.001), which is a relative reduction of 15.5%. We found that the relative decrease in age-adjusted mortality was higher among men than among women (–22.2% v. –7.3%, p < 0.001). Interpretation Mortality rates among patients with hypertension have decreased. Along with an increasing incidence, decreased mortality rates may contribute to the increased prevalence of diagnosed hypertension. Sex-related discrepancies in the reduction of mortality warrant further investigation. PMID:18490639

Spatial study of mortality in motorcycle accidents in the State of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Silva, Paul Hindenburg Nobre de Vasconcelos; Lima, Maria Luiza Carvalho de; Moreira, Rafael da Silveira; Souza, Wayner Vieira de; Cabral, Amanda Priscila de Santana

2011-04-01

To analyze the spatial distribution of mortality due to motorcycle accidents in the state of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil. A population-based ecological study using data on mortality in motorcycle accidents from 01/01/2000 to 31/12/2005. The analysis units were the municipalities. For the spatial distribution analysis, an average mortality rate was calculated, using deaths from motorcycle accidents recorded in the Mortality Information System as the numerator, and as the denominator the population of the mid-period. Spatial analysis techniques, mortality smoothing coefficient estimate by the local empirical Bayesian method and Moran scatterplot, applied to the digital cartographic base of Pernambuco were used. The average mortality rate for motorcycle accidents in Pernambuco was 3.47 per 100 thousand inhabitants. Of the 185 municipalities, 16 were part of five clusters identified with average mortality rates ranging from 5.66 to 11.66 per 100 thousand inhabitants, and were considered critical areas. Three clusters are located in the area known as sertão and two in the agreste of the state. The risk of dying from a motorcycle accident is greater in conglomerate areas outside the metropolitan axis, and intervention measures should consider the economic, social and cultural contexts.

Mortality and recurrence rate after pressure ulcer operation for elderly long-term bedridden patients.

PubMed

Kuwahara, Masamitsu; Tada, Hideyuki; Mashiba, Kumi; Yurugi, Satoshi; Iioka, Hiroshi; Niitsuma, Katsunori; Yasuda, Yukiko

2005-06-01

We operated on 16 sacral pressure ulcers in elderly and long-term residential patients who were immobile as a result of cerebral vascular disease. The mean age of patients was 76 years. Eight ulcers were treated with local fascial flaps and 8 by simple closure. The follow-up period was from 1 to 4 years. Recurrence and mortality rates were examined retrospectively. In the 16 patients, recurrence occurred in 37.5%, and 43.8% died without recurrence. The recurrence rate was 37.5% for local fascial flaps and 37.5% for simple closure. Overall mortality was 68.8% in the follow-up period. Because postoperative death was common, we should not only focus on reducing local pressure but also pay attention to any underlying disease. Because of this high mortality rate, the least invasive procedure possible should be used. Because the recurrence rate of simple closure was the same as for local fascial flaps, simple closure should be considered as a reconstructive method.

EVALUATION OF THE MORTALITY RATE ONE YEAR AFTER HIP FRACTURE AND FACTORS RELATING TO DIMINISHED SURVIVAL AMONG ELDERLY PEOPLE

PubMed Central

Ricci, Guilherme; Longaray, Maurício Portal; Gonçalves, Ramiro Zilles; Neto, Ary da Silva Ungaretti; Manente, Marislei; Barbosa, Luíza Barbosa Horta

2015-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the mortality rate after one year and correlated preoperative factors, among patients with hip fractures. Methods: We prospectively studied 202 out of a total of 376 patients with a diagnosis of hip fracture who were admitted to the Hospital Cristo Redentor, between October 2007 and March 2009. The database with the epidemiological analysis was set up during their hospitalization, and follow–up data were obtained preferentially by phone. Results: The overall mortality rate after one year of follow-up was 28.7% or 58 deaths, among which 11 (5.45%) occurred during hospitalization. Fractures were more prevalent among women (71.3%) and rare among blacks (5%). Among the comorbidities, dementia and depression showed a statistically significant reduction in survival (p = 0.018 and 0.007, respectively). Conclusion: The mortality rate after one year of follow-up was 28.7%. Dementia and depression increased this rate. PMID:27042638

Impact of fetal death reporting requirements on early neonatal and fetal mortality rates and racial disparities.

PubMed

Tyler, Crystal P; Grady, Sue C; Grigorescu, Violanda; Luke, Barbara; Todem, David; Paneth, Nigel

2012-01-01

Racial disparities in infant and neonatal mortality vary substantially across the U.S. with some states experiencing wider disparities than others. Many factors are thought to contribute to these disparities, but state differences in fetal death reporting have received little attention. We examined whether such reporting requirements may explain national variation in neonatal and fetal mortality rates and racial disparities. We used data on non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black infants from the U.S. 2000-2002 linked birth/infant death and fetal death records to determine the degree to which state fetal death reporting requirements explain national variation in neonatal and fetal mortality rates and racial disparities. States were grouped depending upon whether they based the lower limit for fetal death reporting on birthweight alone, gestational age alone, both birthweight and gestational age, or required reporting of all fetal deaths. Traditional methods and the fetuses-at-risk approach were used to calculate mortality rates, 95% confidence intervals, and relative and absolute racial disparity measures in these four groups. States with birthweight-alone fetal death thresholds substantially underreported fetal deaths at lower gestations and slightly overreported neonatal deaths at older gestations. This finding was reflected by these states having the highest neonatal mortality rates and disparities, but the lowest fetal mortality rates and disparities. Using birthweight alone as a reporting threshold may promote some shift of fetal deaths to newborn deaths, contributing to racial disparities in neonatal mortality. The adoption of a uniform national threshold for reporting fetal deaths could reduce systematic differences in live birth and fetal death reporting.

Mortality from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a temporal trend analysis in Brazil, 1979-2014

PubMed Central

Algranti, Eduardo; Saito, Cézar Akiyoshi; Silva, Diego Rodrigues Mendonça e; Carneiro, Ana Paula Scalia; Bussacos, Marco Antonio

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze mortality from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in Brazil over the period 1979-2014. Methods: Microdata were extracted from the Brazilian National Ministry of Health Mortality Database. Only deaths for which the underlying cause was coded as International Classification of Diseases version 9 (ICD-9) 515 or 516.3 (until 1995) or as ICD version 10 (ICD-10) J84.1 (from 1996 onward) were included in our analysis. Standardized mortality rates were calculated for the 2010 Brazilian population. The annual trend in mortality rates was analyzed by joinpoint regression. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) by age group, time period of death, and gender, using a person-years denominator. Results: A total of 32,092 deaths were recorded in the study period. Standardized mortality rates trended upward, rising from 0.24/100,000 population in 1979 to 1.10/100,000 population in 2014. The annual upward trend in mortality rates had two inflection points, in 1992 and 2008, separating three distinct time segments with an annual growth of 2.2%, 6.8%, and 2.4%, respectively. The comparison of RRs for the age groups, using the 50- to 54-year age group as a reference, and for the study period, using 1979-1984 as a reference, were 16.14 (14.44-16.36) and 6.71 (6.34-7.12), respectively. Men compared with women had higher standardized mortality rates (per 100,000 person-years) in all age groups. Conclusion: Brazilian IPF mortality rates are lower than those of other countries, suggesting underdiagnosis or underreporting. The temporal trend is similar to those reported in the literature and is not explained solely by population aging. PMID:29340493

Croatia is a safe tourist destination – study of foreign citizen mortality in Splitsko-dalmatinska and Primorsko-goranska County during the period 2001-2010

PubMed Central

Bečić, Kristijan; Jandrić Bečić, Darija; Čengija, Morana; Ćurić, Goran; Alujević, Antonio; Definis-Gojanović, Marija

2013-01-01

Aim To investigate the mortality rate of foreign citizens in Croatia. Methods Data were collected from the Departments for Forensic Pathology in Split and Rijeka, which are the autopsy centers of the counties with approximately 35% of total foreign visitors, as well as from the Croatian Central Bureau for Statistics for the period 2001-2010. The mortality rate (number of deaths of members of each nationality per 100 000 entrances ratio) and standardized mortality ratio (ratio between the observed and expected number of deaths) were calculated, and χ2 goodness of fit test was used for statistical analyses. Results There were 447 deaths (325 men, 72.7%) of foreign citizens (mortality rate of 0.0015%). A total of 207 deaths (46.3%) were by natural causes, more often among older people, and 240 deaths (53.7%) were injury deaths, more often among younger people, mostly by drowning or traffic-related (22.2% and 18.6% of all deaths, respectively). Most represented were citizens of German, Austrian, Czech, and Italian nationality, with 115 (25.7%), 59 (13.2%), 58 (13.0%), and 52 deaths (11.6%), respectively. Mortality rate by nationality showed no significant difference (P < 0.05). The standardized mortality ratio was lowest in Hungarian and Czech citizens (0.17) and highest in US citizens (0.35). Conclusions Croatia has low foreign citizens’ mortality rate and could be considered a safe tourist destination. PMID:23771761

[Mortality from heart attack in Belgrade population during the period 1990-2004].

PubMed

Ratkov, Isidora; Sipetić, Sandra; Vlajinac, Hristina; Sekeres, Bojan

2008-01-01

In most countries, cardiovascular diseases are the leading disorders, with ischemic heart diseases being the leading cause of death. According to WHO data, every year about 17 million people die of cardiovascular diseases, which is 30% of all deaths. Ischemic heart diseases contribute from one-third to one-half of all deaths due to cardiovascular diseases. Three point eight million men and 3.4 million women in the world die every year from ischemic heart diseases, and in Europe about 2 million. The highest mortality rate from ischemic heart diseases occurs in India, China and Russia. The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to determine heart attack mortality in Belgrade population during the period 1990-2004. In the study, we conducted investigation of Belgrade population during the period 1990-2004. Mortality data were obtained from the city institution for statistics. The mortality rates were calculated based on the total Belgrade population obtained from the mean values for the last two register years (1991 and 2002). The mortality rates were standardized using the direct method of standardization according to the world (Segi) standard population. In the Belgrade population during the period 1990-2004, the participation of mortality rate due to heart attack among deaths from cardiovascular diseases was 17% in males and 10% in females. In Belgrade male population, mean standardized mortality rates (per 100,000 habitants) were 50.5 for heart attack, 8.3 for chronic ischemic heart diseases and 4.6 for angina pectoris, while in females the rates were 30.8, 6.7 and 4.2, respectively. Mortality from ischemic heart diseases and from heart attack was higher in males than in females. During the studied 15-year period, on average 755 males and 483 females died due to heart attack every year. Mean standardized mortality rates per 100,000 habitants were 50.0 in male and 31.1 in female population. Males died 1.6 times more frequently from heart attack than females. During the studied period, mean standardized mortality rates from heart attack, in the population aged over 30 increased with age both in male and female population. However, males tended to die from heart attack at an earlier age than females, with death rates for males approximately the same as those for women who were 10 years older. In Belgrade during the period from 1990-2004, we found that there was an increasing trend in mortality rate due to cardiovascular diseases, while the trend of mortality rate from heart attack was constant with insignificant oscillations.

Incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Malaysia

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES This is the first study that estimates the incidence and mortality rate for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients in Malaysia by sex and ethnicity. METHODS The 4,501 patients were selected from National Cancer Patient Registry-Colorectal Cancer data. Patient survival status was cross-checked with the National Registration Department. The age-standardised rate (ASR) was calculated as the proportion of CRC cases (incidence) and deaths (mortality) from 2008 to 2013, weighted by the age structure of the population, as determined by the Department of Statistics Malaysia and the World Health Organization world standard population distribution. RESULTS The overall incidence rate for CRC was 21.32 cases per 100,000. Those of Chinese ethnicity had the highest CRC incidence (27.35), followed by the Malay (18.95), and Indian (17.55) ethnicities. The ASR incidence rate of CRC was 1.33 times higher among males than females (24.16 and 18.14 per 100,000, respectively). The 2011 (44.7%) CRC deaths were recorded. The overall ASR of mortality was 9.79 cases, with 11.85 among the Chinese, followed by 9.56 among the Malays and 7.08 among the Indians. The ASR of mortality was 1.42 times higher among males (11.46) than females (8.05). CONCLUSIONS CRC incidence and mortality is higher in males than females. Individuals of Chinese ethnicity have the highest incidence of CRC, followed by the Malay and Indian ethnicities. The same trends were observed for the age-standardised mortality rate. PMID:26971697

Trends in under-5 mortality rates and the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

PubMed Central

Adetunji, J.

2000-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among adults and mortality rates among under-5-year-olds have increased or stagnated in many countries. The objective of this study was to investigate whether there is a link between under-5 mortality trends and the prevalence of HIV among adults and, if so, to assess the magnitude of the effect of adult HIV prevalence on under-5 mortality rates. METHOD: Data from Demographic and Health Surveys were used to establish the trends in under-5 mortality rates for 25 countries for which there are data for at least two points in time. Countries were ranked according to the most recent adult HIV prevalence data and grouped in three categories: those with very high HIV prevalence (> or = 5%); those with moderately high prevalence (1-4.9%); and those with low prevalence (< 1%). A mathematical model was fitted to obtain an estimate of the contribution of HIV/AIDS to the level of under-5 mortality in each country. RESULTS: Under-5 mortality rates showed an increase in most countries with high adult HIV prevalence, but a decrease in almost every country with moderately high or low prevalence. The estimated contribution of adult HIV prevalence to the observed level of under-5 mortality was highest (up to 61%) in Zimbabwe (where HIV prevalence was highest) and tended to decrease with the level of HIV prevalence. DISCUSSION: The contribution of HIV/AIDS to childhood mortality therefore appears to be most noticeable in settings where the epidemic is most severe. PMID:11100615

Mapping Geographic Variation in Infant Mortality and Related Black–White Disparities in the US

PubMed Central

Rossen, Lauren M.; Khan, Diba; Schoendorf, Kenneth C.

2017-01-01

Background In the US, black infants remain more than twice as likely as white infants to die in the first year of life. Previous studies of geographic variation in infant mortality disparities have been limited to large metropolitan areas where stable estimates of infant mortality rates by race can be determined, leaving much of the US unexplored. Methods The objective of this analysis was to describe geographic variation in county-level racial disparities in infant mortality rates across the 48 contiguous US states and District of Columbia using national linked birth and infant death period files (2004–2011). We implemented Bayesian shared component models in OpenBUGS, borrowing strength across both spatial units and racial groups. We mapped posterior estimates of mortality rates for black and white infants as well as relative and absolute disparities. Results Black infants had higher infant mortality rates than white infants in all counties, but there was geographic variation in the magnitude of both relative and absolute disparities. The mean difference between black and white rates was 5.9 per 1,000 (median: 5.8, interquartile range: 5.2 to 6.6 per 1,000), while those for black infants were 2.2 times higher than for white infants (median: 2.1, interquartile range: 1.9–2.3). One quarter of the county-level variation in rates for black infants was shared with white infants. Conclusions Examining county-level variation in infant mortality rates among black and white infants and related racial disparities may inform efforts to redress inequities and reduce the burden of infant mortality in the US. PMID:27196804

Declines in stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Europe between 2004 and 2010: results from the Euro-Peristat project

PubMed Central

Zeitlin, Jennifer; Mortensen, Laust; Cuttini, Marina; Lack, Nicholas; Nijhuis, Jan; Haidinger, Gerald; Blondel, Béatrice; Hindori-Mohangoo, Ashna D

2016-01-01

Background Stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates declined in Europe between 2004 and 2010. We hypothesised that declines might be greater for countries with higher mortality in 2004 and disproportionally affect very preterm infants at highest risk. Methods Data about live births, stillbirths and neonatal deaths by gestational age (GA) were collected using a common protocol by the Euro-Peristat project in 2004 and 2010. We analysed stillbirths at ≥28 weeks GA in 22 countries and live births ≥24 weeks GA for neonatal mortality in 18 countries. Per cent changes over time were assessed by calculating risk ratios (RR) for stillbirth, neonatal mortality and preterm birth rates in 2010 vs 2004. We used meta-analysis techniques to derive pooled RR using random-effects models overall, by GA subgroups and by mortality level in 2004. Results Between 2004 and 2010, stillbirths declined by 17% (95% CI 10% to 23%), with a range from 1% to 39% by country. Neonatal mortality declined by 29% (95% CI 23% to 35%) with a range from 9% to 67%. Preterm birth rates did not change: 0% (95% CI −3% to 3%). Mortality declines were of a similar magnitude at all GA; mortality levels in 2004 were not associated with RRs. Conclusions Stillbirths and neonatal deaths declined at all gestational ages in countries with both high and low levels of mortality in 2004. These results raise questions about how low-mortality countries achieve continued declines and highlight the importance of improving care across the GA spectrum. PMID:26719590

[Chile: mortality between 1 and 4 years of age. Trends and causes].

PubMed

Taucher, E

1981-08-01

The great decline in infant mortality in Chile in the last 2 decades provokes interest in the current situation in child mortality (for children 1-4 years of age). For the present analysis, central death rates and probabilities of dying are used, calculated with Greville's method from birth and death data. Mortality trends of the group between 1961-78, sex differentials, and causes of death are studied. The findings indicate that mortality in this age group has declined dramatically during the period of analysis, mainly due to the decrease in mortality from respiratory diseases, diarrhea, and diseases avoidable through vaccination. To attain the future approach of the Chilean rate to that of more developed countries, the reduction of mortality from respiratory diseases and diarrhea should continue together with the achievement of substantial reduction in mortality from violence and accidents. This, the primary cause of death in children, ages 1-4, has not varied during the period under study. (author's)

Biomarkers of aging in Drosophila.

PubMed

Jacobson, Jake; Lambert, Adrian J; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D; Partridge, Linda

2010-08-01

Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. Dietary restriction thus does not slow accumulation of aging-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of aging-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of aging-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of aging-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence, fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of aging-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidized and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of aging-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of aging.

Biomarkers of ageing in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Jacobson, Jake; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D.; Partridge, Linda

2015-01-01

Summary Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. DR thus does not slow accumulation of ageing-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of ageing-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of ageing-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of ageing-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of ageing-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidised and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of ageing-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of ageing. PMID:20367621

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: The urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out

PubMed Central

Kimani-Murage, E.W.; Fotso, J.C.; Egondi, T.; Abuya, B.; Elungata, P.; Ziraba, A.K.; Kabiru, C.W.; Madise, N.

2014-01-01

Background We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban–rural and intra-urban differentials. Methods We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Results Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban–rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. Conclusions The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. PMID:25024120

Investigation of cancer mortality inequalities between rural and urban areas in South Korea.

PubMed

Choi, Kyung-Mee

2016-02-01

Little is known about rural-urban cancer disparities, particularly in South Korea, and this study is to identify cancer-specific mortality inequalities between the rural and urban areas of the country. For 11 specific cancer sites, age-standardised mortality rates were analysed for the rural and urban administrative districts of South Korea during 2006-2011. The Poisson log linear regression models were employed to estimate cancer-specific mortality rates, and Bonferroni comparison method was used to identify rural-urban disparities. There were significant rural-urban disparities observed for all cancer sites except prostate, pancreas and leukaemia. The mortality rates of lung, liver and stomach cancers, the three most common cancers in the country, were observed to be significantly higher in rural areas than in metropolitan areas. In contrast, the reverse relationship was observed for the reproductive system (breast and uterus) and colon cancers. Central nervous system cancer mortality was observed to be significantly higher in rural areas than in non-metro urban areas. For the first time ever, significant rural-urban disparity patterns in cancer mortality rates in South Korea have been identified in this paper. Future investigations on cancer risk factors for the country should address these disparity patterns. © 2015 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Mortality and Case Fatality Due to Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: A Nationwide Analysis of Epidemiology, Trends and Spatial Patterns

PubMed Central

Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Ramos, Alberto Novaes; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg

2014-01-01

Background Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a significant public health problem in Brazil and several regions of the world. This study investigated the magnitude, temporal trends and spatial distribution of mortality related to VL in Brazil. Methods We performed a study based on secondary data obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. We included all deaths in Brazil from 2000 to 2011, in which VL was recorded as cause of death. We present epidemiological characteristics, trend analysis of mortality and case fatality rates by joinpoint regression models, and spatial analysis using municipalities as geographical units of analysis. Results In the study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil. VL was mentioned in 3,322 (0.03%) deaths. Average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.15 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants and case fatality rate 8.1%. Highest mortality rates were observed in males (0.19 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), <1 year-olds (1.03 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) and residents in Northeast region (0.30 deaths/100,000 inhabitants). Highest case fatality rates were observed in males (8.8%), ≥70 year-olds (43.8%) and residents in South region (17.7%). Mortality and case fatality rates showed a significant increase in Brazil over the period, with different patterns between regions: increasing mortality rates in the North (Annual Percent Change – APC: 9.4%; 95% confidence interval – CI: 5.3 to 13.6), and Southeast (APC: 8.1%; 95% CI: 2.6 to 13.9); and increasing case fatality rates in the Northeast (APC: 4.0%; 95% CI: 0.8 to 7.4). Spatial analysis identified a major cluster of high mortality encompassing a wide geographic range in North and Northeast Brazil. Conclusions Despite ongoing control strategies, mortality related to VL in Brazil is increasing. Mortality and case fatality vary considerably between regions, and surveillance and control measures should be prioritized in high-risk clusters. Early diagnosis and treatment are fundamental strategies for reducing case fatality of VL in Brazil. PMID:24699517

Cancer mortality in a Chinese population exposed to hexavalent chromium in drinking water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beaumont, J.J.; Sedman, R.M.; Reynolds, S.D.; Sherman, C.D.; Li, L.-H.; Howd, R.A.; Sandy, M.S.; Zeise, L.; Alexeeff, G.V.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: In 1987, investigators in Liaoning Province, China, reported that mortality rates for all cancer, stomach cancer, and lung cancer in 1970-1978 were higher in villages with hexavalent chromium (Cr)-contaminated drinking water than in the general population. The investigators reported rates, but did not report statistical measures of association or precision. METHODS: Using reports and other communications from investigators at the local Jinzhou Health and Anti-Epidemic Station, we obtained data on Cr contamination of groundwater and cancer mortality in 9 study regions near a ferrochromium factory. We estimated:(1) person-years at risk in the study regions, based on census and population growth rate data, (2) mortality counts, based on estimated person-years at risk and previously reported mortality rates, and (3) rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: The all-cancer mortality rate in the combined 5 study regions with Cr-contaminated water was negligibly elevated in comparison with the rate in the 4 combined study regions without contaminated water (rate ratio = 1.13; 95% confidence interval = 0.86-1.46), but was somewhat more elevated in comparison with the whole province (1.23; 0.97-1.53). Stomach cancer mortality in the regions with contaminated water was more substantially elevated in comparison with the regions without contaminated water (1.82; 1.11-2.91) and the whole province (1.69; 1.12-2.44). Lung cancer mortality was slightly elevated in comparison with the unexposed study regions (1.15; 0.62-2.07), and more strongly elevated in comparison with the whole province (1.78; 1.03-2.87). Mortality from other cancers combined was not elevated in comparison with either the unexposed study regions (0.86; 0.53-1.36) or the whole province (0.92; 0.58-1.38). CONCLUSIONS: While these data are limited, they are consistent with increased stomach cancer risk in a population exposed to Cr in drinking water. ?? 2008 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Population health and the economy: Mortality and the Great Recession in Europe.

PubMed

Tapia Granados, José A; Ionides, Edward L

2017-12-01

We analyze the evolution of mortality-based health indicators in 27 European countries before and after the start of the Great Recession. We find that in the countries where the crisis has been particularly severe, mortality reductions in 2007-2010 were considerably bigger than in 2004-2007. Panel models adjusted for space-invariant and time-invariant factors show that an increase of 1 percentage point in the national unemployment rate is associated with a reduction of 0.5% (p < .001) in the rate of age-adjusted mortality. The pattern of mortality oscillating procyclically is found for total and sex-specific mortality, cause-specific mortality due to major causes of death, and mortality for ages 30-44 and 75 and over, but not for ages 0-14. Suicides appear increasing when the economy decelerates-countercyclically-but the evidence is weak. Results are robust to using different weights in the regression, applying nonlinear methods for detrending, expanding the sample, and using as business cycle indicator gross domestic product per capita or employment-to-population ratios rather than the unemployment rate. We conclude that in the European experience of the past 20 years, recessions, on average, have beneficial short-term effects on mortality of the adult population. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Premature mortality in active convulsive epilepsy in rural Kenya

PubMed Central

Bottomley, Christian; Fegan, Gregory; Chengo, Eddie; Odhiambo, Rachael; Bauni, Evasius; Neville, Brian; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Sander, Josemir W.; Newton, Charles R.

2014-01-01

Objective: We estimated premature mortality and identified causes of death and associated factors in people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) in rural Kenya. Methods: In this prospective population-based study, people with ACE were identified in a cross-sectional survey and followed up regularly for 3 years, during which information on deaths and associated factors was collected. We used a validated verbal autopsy tool to establish putative causes of death. Age-specific rate ratios and standardized mortality ratios were estimated. Poisson regression was used to identify mortality risk factors. Results: There were 61 deaths among 754 people with ACE, yielding a rate of 33.3/1,000 persons/year. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 6.5. Mortality was higher across all ACE age groups. Nonadherence to antiepileptic drugs (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 3.37), cognitive impairment (aRR 4.55), and age (50+ years) (rate ratio 4.56) were risk factors for premature mortality. Most deaths (56%) were directly related to epilepsy, with prolonged seizures/possible status epilepticus (38%) most frequently associated with death; some of these may have been due to sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). Possible SUDEP was the likely cause in another 7%. Conclusion: Mortality in people with ACE was more than 6-fold greater than expected. This may be reduced by improving treatment adherence and prompt management of prolonged seizures and supporting those with cognitive impairment. PMID:24443454

Historical Evolution of Old-Age Mortality and New Approaches to Mortality Forecasting

PubMed Central

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.; Krut'ko, Vyacheslav N.

2017-01-01

Knowledge of future mortality levels and trends is important for actuarial practice but poses a challenge to actuaries and demographers. The Lee-Carter method, currently used for mortality forecasting, is based on the assumption that the historical evolution of mortality at all age groups is driven by one factor only. This approach cannot capture an additive manner of mortality decline observed before the 1960s. To overcome the limitation of the one-factor model of mortality and to determine the true number of factors underlying mortality changes over time, we suggest a new approach to mortality analysis and forecasting based on the method of latent variable analysis. The basic assumption of this approach is that most variation in mortality rates over time is a manifestation of a small number of latent variables, variation in which gives rise to the observed mortality patterns. To extract major components of mortality variation, we apply factor analysis to mortality changes in developed countries over the period of 1900–2014. Factor analysis of time series of age-specific death rates in 12 developed countries (data taken from the Human Mortality Database) identified two factors capable of explaining almost 94 to 99 percent of the variance in the temporal changes of adult death rates at ages 25 to 85 years. Analysis of these two factors reveals that the first factor is a “young-age” or background factor with high factor loadings at ages 30 to 45 years. The second factor can be called an “oldage” or senescent factor because of high factor loadings at ages 65 to 85 years. It was found that the senescent factor was relatively stable in the past but now is rapidly declining for both men and women. The decline of the senescent factor is faster for men, although in most countries, it started almost 30 years later. Factor analysis of time series of age-specific death rates conducted for the oldest-old ages (65 to 100 years) found two factors explaining variation of mortality at extremely old ages in the United States. The first factor is comparable to the senescent factor found for adult mortality. The second factor, however, is specific to extreme old ages (96 to 100 years) and shows peaks in 1960 and 2000. Although mortality below 90 to 95 years shows a steady decline with time driven by the senescent factor, mortality of centenarians does not decline and remains relatively stable. The approach suggested in this paper has several advantages. First, it is able to determine the total number of independent factors affecting mortality changes over time. Second, this approach allows researchers to determine the time interval in which underlying factors remain stable or undergo rapid changes. Most methods of mortality projections are not able to identify the best base period for mortality projections, attempting to use the longest-possible time period instead. We observe that the senescent factor of mortality continues to decline, and this decline does not demonstrate any indications of slowing down. At the same time, mortality of centenarians does not decline and remains stable. The lack of mortality decline at extremely old ages may diminish anticipated longevity gains in the future. PMID:29170765

A novel method for murine intrahepatic islet transplantation via cecal vein.

PubMed

Byun, Nari; Kim, Hyun-Je; Min, Byoung-Hoon; Shin, Jun-Seop; Yoon, Il-Hee; Kim, Jong-Min; Kim, Yong-Hee; Park, Chung-Gyu

2015-12-01

Islet transplantation is one of the most beneficial treatment modality to treat type 1 diabetic patients with frequent hypoglycemic unawareness. In clinical setting, human islets are infused via portal vein and are settled in the end-portal venules in the liver. However, mouse islets are transplanted into kidney subcapsule or liver through direct portal vein. These conventional transplantation methods have several drawbacks such as different physiological environments around the transplanted islets in kidney subcapsule from the liver and high mortality rate in direct portal vein approach. In this study, we introduced murine intrahepatic islet transplantation method via cecal vein to have the same surgical operation route in humans as well as guaranteeing low mortality rate after islet transplantation. With this protocol, consistent normoglycemia can be obtained in diabetic mice, while keeping operation-related mortality extremely low. This approach with easier accessibility and low mortality will make murine intrahepatic islet transplantation a useful model for studying immunological mechanisms such as strong innate and adaptive immune responses that occur in human islet transplantation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fever Is Associated with Reduced, Hypothermia with Increased Mortality in Septic Patients: A Meta-Analysis of Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Rumbus, Zoltan; Matics, Robert; Hegyi, Peter; Zsiboras, Csaba; Szabo, Imre; Illes, Anita; Petervari, Erika; Balasko, Marta; Marta, Katalin; Miko, Alexandra; Parniczky, Andrea; Tenk, Judit; Rostas, Ildiko; Solymar, Margit

2017-01-01

Background Sepsis is usually accompanied by changes of body temperature (Tb), but whether fever and hypothermia predict mortality equally or differently is not fully clarified. We aimed to find an association between Tb and mortality in septic patients with meta-analysis of clinical trials. Methods We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry databases (from inception to February 2016). Human studies reporting Tb and mortality of patients with sepsis were included in the analyses. Average Tb with SEM and mortality rate of septic patient groups were extracted by two authors independently. Results Forty-two studies reported Tb and mortality ratios in septic patients (n = 10,834). Pearson correlation analysis revealed weak negative linear correlation (R2 = 0.2794) between Tb and mortality. With forest plot analysis, we found a 22.2% (CI, 19.2–25.5) mortality rate in septic patients with fever (Tb > 38.0°C), which was higher, 31.2% (CI, 25.7–37.3), in normothermic patients, and it was the highest, 47.3% (CI, 38.9–55.7), in hypothermic patients (Tb < 36.0°C). Meta-regression analysis showed strong negative linear correlation between Tb and mortality rate (regression coefficient: -0.4318; P < 0.001). Mean Tb of the patients was higher in the lowest mortality quartile than in the highest: 38.1°C (CI, 37.9–38.4) vs 37.1°C (CI, 36.7–37.4). Conclusions Deep Tb shows negative correlation with the clinical outcome in sepsis. Fever predicts lower, while hypothermia higher mortality rates compared with normal Tb. Septic patients with the lowest (< 25%) chance of mortality have higher Tb than those with the highest chance (> 75%). PMID:28081244

HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites.

PubMed

Streatfield, P Kim; Khan, Wasif A; Bhuiya, Abbas; Hanifi, Syed M A; Alam, Nurul; Millogo, Ourohiré; Sié, Ali; Zabré, Pascal; Rossier, Clementine; Soura, Abdramane B; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Kone, Siaka; Ngoran, Eliezer K; Utzinger, Juerg; Abera, Semaw F; Melaku, Yohannes A; Weldearegawi, Berhe; Gomez, Pierre; Jasseh, Momodou; Ansah, Patrick; Azongo, Daniel; Kondayire, Felix; Oduro, Abraham; Amu, Alberta; Gyapong, Margaret; Kwarteng, Odette; Kant, Shashi; Pandav, Chandrakant S; Rai, Sanjay K; Juvekar, Sanjay; Muralidharan, Veena; Wahab, Abdul; Wilopo, Siswanto; Bauni, Evasius; Mochamah, George; Ndila, Carolyne; Williams, Thomas N; Khagayi, Sammy; Laserson, Kayla F; Nyaguara, Amek; Van Eijk, Anna M; Ezeh, Alex; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Wamukoya, Marylene; Chihana, Menard; Crampin, Amelia; Price, Alison; Delaunay, Valérie; Diallo, Aldiouma; Douillot, Laetitia; Sokhna, Cheikh; Gómez-Olivé, F Xavier; Mee, Paul; Tollman, Stephen M; Herbst, Kobus; Mossong, Joël; Chuc, Nguyen T K; Arthur, Samuelina S; Sankoh, Osman A; Byass, Peter

2014-01-01

As the HIV/AIDS pandemic has evolved over recent decades, Africa has been the most affected region, even though a large proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths have not been documented at the individual level. Systematic application of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in defined populations provides an opportunity to assess the mortality burden of the pandemic from individual data. To present standardised comparisons of HIV/AIDS-related mortality at sites across Africa and Asia, including closely related causes of death such as pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and pneumonia. Deaths related to HIV/AIDS were extracted from individual demographic and VA data from 22 INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia. VA data were standardised to WHO 2012 standard causes of death assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Between-site comparisons of mortality rates were standardised using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population. The dataset covered a total of 10,773 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, observed over 12,204,043 person-years. HIV/AIDS-related mortality fractions and mortality rates varied widely across Africa and Asia, with highest burdens in eastern and southern Africa, and lowest burdens in Asia. There was evidence of rapidly declining rates at the sites with the heaviest burdens. HIV/AIDS mortality was also strongly related to PTB mortality. On a country basis, there were strong similarities between HIV/AIDS mortality rates at INDEPTH sites and those derived from modelled estimates. Measuring HIV/AIDS-related mortality continues to be a challenging issue, all the more so as anti-retroviral treatment programmes alleviate mortality risks. The congruence between these results and other estimates adds plausibility to both approaches. These data, covering some of the highest mortality observed during the pandemic, will be an important baseline for understanding the future decline of HIV/AIDS.

Infant mortality in the Marshall Islands.

PubMed

Levy, S J; Booth, H

1988-12-01

Levy and Booth present previously unpublished infant mortality rates for the Marshall Islands. They use an indirect method to estimate infant mortality from the 1973 and 1980 censuses, then apply indirect and direct methods of estimation to data from the Marshall Islands Women's Health Survey of 1985. Comparing the results with estimates of infant mortality obtained from vital registration data enables them to estimate the extent of underregistration of infant deaths. The authors conclude that 1973 census appears to be the most valid information source. Direct estimates from the Women's Health Survey data suggest that infant mortality has increased since 1970-1974, whereas the indirect estimates indicate a decreasing trend in infant mortality rates, converging with the direct estimates in more recent years. In view of increased efforts to improve maternal and child health in the mid-1970s, the decreasing trend is plausible. It is impossible to estimate accurately infant mortality in the Marshall Islands during 1980-1984 from the available data. Estimates based on registration data for 1975-1979 are at least 40% too low. The authors speculate that the estimate of 33 deaths per 1000 live births obtained from registration data for 1984 is 40-50% too low. In round figures, a value of 60 deaths per 1000 may be taken as the final estimate for 1980-1984.

Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

PubMed Central

Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

Smoothing two-dimensional Malaysian mortality data using P-splines indexed by age and year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamaruddin, Halim Shukri; Ismail, Noriszura

2014-06-01

Nonparametric regression implements data to derive the best coefficient of a model from a large class of flexible functions. Eilers and Marx (1996) introduced P-splines as a method of smoothing in generalized linear models, GLMs, in which the ordinary B-splines with a difference roughness penalty on coefficients is being used in a single dimensional mortality data. Modeling and forecasting mortality rate is a problem of fundamental importance in insurance company calculation in which accuracy of models and forecasts are the main concern of the industry. The original idea of P-splines is extended to two dimensional mortality data. The data indexed by age of death and year of death, in which the large set of data will be supplied by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The extension of this idea constructs the best fitted surface and provides sensible prediction of the underlying mortality rate in Malaysia mortality case.

Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Peter

2013-04-01

Analysis of premature mortality variations via standardized expected years of life lost (SEYLL) measures raises questions about suitable modelling for mortality data, especially when developing SEYLL profiles for areas with small populations. Existing fixed effects estimation methods take no account of correlations in mortality levels over ages, causes, socio-ethnic groups or areas. They also do not specify an underlying data generating process, or a likelihood model that can include trends or correlations, and are likely to produce unstable estimates for small-areas. An alternative strategy involves a fully specified data generation process, and a random effects model which "borrows strength" to produce stable SEYLL estimates, allowing for correlations between ages, areas and socio-ethnic groups. The resulting modelling strategy is applied to gender-specific differences in SEYLL rates in small-areas in NE London, and to cause-specific mortality for leading causes of premature mortality in these areas.

High-risk occupations for suicide.

PubMed

Roberts, S E; Jaremin, B; Lloyd, K

2013-06-01

High occupational suicide rates are often linked to easy occupational access to a method of suicide. This study aimed to compare suicide rates across all occupations in Britain, how they have changed over the past 30 years, and how they may vary by occupational socio-economic group. Method We used national occupational mortality statistics, census-based occupational populations and death inquiry files (for the years 1979-1980, 1982-1983 and 2001-2005). The main outcome measures were suicide rates per 100 000 population, percentage changes over time in suicide rates, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and proportional mortality ratios (PMRs). Several occupations with the highest suicide rates (per 100 000 population) during 1979-1980 and 1982-1983, including veterinarians (ranked first), pharmacists (fourth), dentists (sixth), doctors (tenth) and farmers (thirteenth), have easy occupational access to a method of suicide (pharmaceuticals or guns). By 2001-2005, there had been large significant reductions in suicide rates for each of these occupations, so that none ranked in the top 30 occupations. Occupations with significant increases over time in suicide rates were all manual occupations whereas occupations with suicide rates that decreased were mainly professional or non-manual. Variation in suicide rates that was explained by socio-economic group almost doubled over time from 11.4% in 1979-1980 and 1982-1983 to 20.7% in 2001-2005. Socio-economic forces now seem to be a major determinant of high occupational suicide rates in Britain. As the increases in suicide rates among manual occupations occurred during a period of economic prosperity, carefully targeted suicide prevention initiatives could be beneficial.

Advancing the Hypothesis that Geographic Variations in Risk Factors Contribute Relatively Little to Observed Geographic Variations in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality

PubMed Central

Howard, George; Cushman, Mary; Prineas, Ronald J.; Howard, Virginia J.; Moy, Claudia S.; Sullivan, Lisa M.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; McClure, Leslie A.; Pulley, Lea Vonne; Safford, Monika M.

2009-01-01

Purpose Geographic variation in risk factors may underlie geographic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality. Methods Framingham CHD Risk Score (FCRS) and Stroke Risk Score (FSRS) were calculated for 25,770 stroke-free and 22,247 CHD-free participants from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort. Vital statistics provided age-adjusted CHD and stroke mortality rates. In an ecologic analysis, the age-adjusted, race-sex weighted, average state-level risk factor levels were compared to state-level mortality rates. Results There was no relationship between CHD and stroke mortality rates (r = 0.04; p = 0.78), but there was between CHD and stroke risk scores at the individual (r = 0.68; p < 0.0001) and state (r = 0.64, p < 0.0001) level. There was a stronger (p < 0.0001) association between state-level FCRS and state-level CHD mortality (r = 0.28, p = 0.18), than between FSRS and stroke mortality (r = 0.12, p = 0.56). Conclusions Weak associations between CHD and stroke mortality and strong associations between CHD and stroke risk scores suggest geographic variation in risk factors may not underlie geographic variations in stroke and CHD mortality. The relationship between risk factor scores and mortality was stronger for CHD than stroke. PMID:19285103

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland

PubMed Central

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L.; Egger, Matthias

2016-01-01

Background Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. Methods We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Results Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4–1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7–18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8–2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1–1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. Conclusions We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries. PMID:27706149

Reduction of maternal mortality due to preeclampsia in Colombia-an interrupted time-series analysis

PubMed Central

Herrera-Medina, Rodolfo; Herrera-Escobar, Juan Pablo; Nieto-Díaz, Aníbal

2014-01-01

Introduction: Preeclampsia is the most important cause of maternal mortality in developing countries. A comprehensive prenatal care program including bio-psychosocial components was developed and introduced at a national level in Colombia. We report on the trends in maternal mortality rates and their related causes before and after implementation of this program. Methods: General and specific maternal mortality rates were monitored for nine years (1998-2006). An interrupted time-series analysis was performed with monthly data on cases of maternal mortality that compared trends and changes in national mortality rates and the impact of these changes attributable to the introduction of a bio-psychosocial model. Multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate correlations between the interventions. Results: Five years after (2002 - 2006) its introduction the general maternal mortality rate was significantly reduced to 23% (OR=0.77, CI 95% 0.71-0.82).The implementation of BPSM also reduced the incidence of preeclampsia in 22% (OR= 0.78, CI 95% 0.67-0.88), as also the labor complications by hemorrhage in 25% (OR=0.75, CI 95% 0.59-0.90) associated with the implementation of red code. The other causes of maternal mortality did not reveal significant changes. Biomedical, nutritional, psychosocial assessments, and other individual interventions in prenatal care were not correlated to maternal mortality (p= 0.112); however, together as a model we observed a significant association (p= 0.042). Conclusions: General maternal mortality was reduced after the implementation of a comprehensive national prenatal care program. Is important the evaluation of this program in others populations. PMID:24970956

Infant mortality in Bangladesh: trends and differentials.

PubMed

Begum, S

1983-12-01

Overall mortality decline in contemporary developing countries including Bangladesh has remained a remarkable success story. In Bangladesh, the mortality rate has dropped from about 45/1000 in the early 1920s to about 20/1000 by the mid 1970s. This study investigates recent behavior of infant mortality in Bangladesh. Using 1974 Bangladesh Retrospective Survey of Fertility and Mortality data, infant mortality rates for Bangladesh are obtained by Feeney's method. In understanding trends and differentials of Bangladesh infant mortality it is desirable that one remains confined to the 1960s only instead of the total period covered in the study (1957-1978). During the 1960s urban areas achieved a very steady and distinct improvement in their mortality rates while rural areas at that time could barely maintain a status quo. In the 1960s, parents' education was inversely related to infant mortality; mother's education is far more important than father's education in augmenting the prospect of survival of their children. Findings reveal: 1) despite the fact that Bangladesh has accomplished some decline in overall mortality in recent decades, no corresponding decline has taken place in infant mortality; 2) the absence of mortality improvement is not true for all sub-groups of population while such stagnation holds true for a large marjority; 3) Bangladesh has strong differentials in infant mortality; and 4) these differentials have widened further in recent years. The Bangladesh government has to make a definite attack on death in infancy; about 33% of the total Bangladesh deaths took place at this age, and overall mortality is reducible to that extent by proper policy devices.

Co-morbidities associated with influenza-attributed mortality, 1994-2000, Canada.

PubMed

Schanzer, Dena L; Langley, Joanne M; Tam, Theresa W S

2008-08-26

The elderly and persons with specific chronic conditions are known to face elevated morbidity and mortality risks resulting from an influenza infection, and hence are routinely recommended for annual influenza vaccination. However, risk-specific mortality rates have not been established. We estimated age-specific influenza-attributable mortality rates stratified by the presence of chronic conditions and type of residence based on deaths of persons who were admitted to hospital with a respiratory complication captured in our national database. The majority of patients had chronic heart or respiratory conditions (80%) and were admitted from the community (80%). Influenza-attributable mortality rates clearly increase with age for all risk groups. Our influenza-specific estimates identified higher risk ratios for chronic lung or heart disease than have been suggested by other methods. These estimates identify groups most in need of improved vaccines and for whom the use of additional strategies, such as immunization of household contacts or caregivers should be considered.

Spatial Analysis of China Province-level Perinatal Mortality

PubMed Central

XIANG, Kun; SONG, Deyong

2016-01-01

Background: Using spatial analysis tools to determine the spatial patterns of China province-level perinatal mortality and using spatial econometric model to examine the impacts of health care resources and different socio-economic factors on perinatal mortality. Methods: The Global Moran’s I index is used to examine whether the spatial autocorrelation exists in selected regions and Moran’s I scatter plot to examine the spatial clustering among regions. Spatial econometric models are used to investigate the spatial relationships between perinatal mortality and contributing factors. Results: The overall Moran’s I index indicates that perinatal mortality displays positive spatial autocorrelation. Moran’s I scatter plot analysis implies that there is a significant clustering of mortality in both high-rate regions and low-rate regions. The spatial econometric models analyses confirm the existence of a direct link between perinatal mortality and health care resources, socio-economic factors. Conclusions: Since a positive spatial autocorrelation has been detected in China province-level perinatal mortality, the upgrading of regional economic development and medical service level will affect the mortality not only in region itself but also its adjacent regions. PMID:27398334

Factoring socioeconomic status into cardiac performance profiling for hospitals: does it matter?

PubMed

Alter, David A; Austin, Peter C; Naylor, C David; Tu, Jack V

2002-01-01

Critics of "scorecard medicine" often highlight the incompleteness of risk-adjustment methods used when accounting for baseline patient differences. Although socioeconomic status is a highly important determinant of adverse outcome for patients admitted to the hospital with acute myocardial infarction, it has not been used in most risk-adjustment models for cardiovascular report cards. To determine the incremental impact of socioeconomic status adjustments on age, sex, and illness severity for hospital-specific 30-day mortality rates after acute myocardial infarction. The authors compared the absolute and relative hospital-specific 30-day acute myocardial infarction mortality rates in 169 hospitals throughout Ontario between April 1, 1994 and March 31, 1997. Patient socioeconomic status was characterized by median neighborhood income using postal codes and 1996 Canadian census data. They examined two risk-adjustment models: the first adjusted for age, sex, and illness severity (standard), whereas the second adjusted for age, sex, illness severity, and median neighborhood income level (socioeconomic status). There was an extremely strong correlation between 'standard' and 'socioeconomic status' risk-adjusted mortality rates (r = 0.99). Absolute differences in 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates between the socioeconomic status and standard risk-adjustment models were small (median, 0.1%; 25th-75th percentile, 0.1-0.2). The agreement in the quintile rankings of hospitals between the socioeconomic status and standard risk-adjustment models was high (weighted kappa = 0.93). Despite its importance as a determinant of patient outcomes, the effect of socioeconomic status on hospital-specific mortality rates over and above standard risk-adjustment methods for acute myocardial infarction hospital profiling in Ontario was negligible.

Sex Differences in Diabetes Mellitus Mortality Trends in Brazil, 1980-2012

PubMed Central

Brito, Alexandre dos Santos; Pinheiro, Rejane Sobrino; Cabral, Cristiane da Silva; de Camargo, Thais Medina Coeli Rochel

2016-01-01

Aims To investigate the hypothesis that the change from the female predominance of diabetes mellitus to a standard of equality or even male preponderance can already be observed in Brazilian mortality statistics. Methods Data on deaths for which diabetes mellitus was listed as the underlying cause were obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System for the years 1980 to 2012. The mortality data were also analyzed according to the multiple causes of death approach from 2001 to 2012. The population data came from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The mortality rates were standardized to the world population. We used a log-linear joinpoint regression to evaluate trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Results From 1980 to 2012, we found a marked increment in the diabetes ASMR among Brazilian men and a less sharp increase in the rate among women, with the latter period (2003–2012) showing a slight decrease among women, though it was not statistically significant. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that diabetes mellitus in Brazil has changed from a pattern of higher mortality among women compared to men to equality or even male predominance. PMID:27275600

Can rheumatoid arthritis (RA) registries provide contextual safety data for modern RA clinical trials? The case for mortality and cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Michaud, Kaleb; Berglind, Niklas; Franzén, Stefan; Frisell, Thomas; Garwood, Christopher; Greenberg, Jeffrey D; Ho, Meilien; Holmqvist, Marie; Horne, Laura; Inoue, Eisuke; Nyberg, Fredrik; Pappas, Dimitrios A; Reed, George; Symmons, Deborah; Tanaka, Eiichi; Tran, Trung N; Verstappen, Suzanne M M; Wesby-van Swaay, Eveline; Yamanaka, Hisashi; Askling, Johan

2016-10-01

We implemented a novel method for providing contextual adverse event rates for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) programme through coordinated analyses of five RA registries, focusing here on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. Each participating registry (Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America (CORRONA) (USA), Swedish Rheumatology Quality of Care Register (SRR) (Sweden), Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) (UK), CORRONA International (East Europe, Latin America, India) and Institute of Rheumatology, Rheumatoid Arthritis (IORRA) (Japan)) defined a main cohort from January 2000 onwards. To address comparability and potential bias, we harmonised event definitions and defined several subcohorts for sensitivity analyses based on disease activity, treatment, calendar time, duration of follow-up and RCT exclusions. Rates were standardised for age, sex and, in one sensitivity analysis, also HAQ. The combined registry cohorts included 57 251 patients with RA (234 089 person-years)-24.5% men, mean (SD) baseline age 58.2 (13.8) and RA duration 8.2 (11.7) years. Standardised registry mortality rates (per 100 person-years) varied from 0.42 (CORRONA) to 0.80 (NOAR), with 0.60 for RCT patients. Myocardial infarction and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) rates ranged from 0.09 and 0.31 (IORRA) to 0.39 and 0.77 (SRR), with RCT rates intermediate (0.18 and 0.42), respectively. Additional subcohort analyses showed small and mostly consistent changes across registries, retaining reasonable consistency in rates across the Western registries. Additional standardisation for HAQ returned higher mortality and MACE registry rates. This coordinated approach to contextualising RA RCT safety data demonstrated reasonable differences and consistency in rates for mortality and CVD across registries, and comparable RCT rates, and may serve as a model method to supplement clinical trial analyses for drug development programmes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Bacterial Sepsis in Brazilian Children: A Trend Analysis from 1992 to 2006

PubMed Central

Mangia, Cristina Malzoni Ferreira; Kissoon, Niranjan; Branchini, Otavio Augusto; Andrade, Maria Cristina; Kopelman, Benjamin Israel; Carcillo, Joe

2011-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiology of hospitalized pediatric sepsis in Brazil (1992–2006) and to compare mortality caused by sepsis to that caused by other major childhood diseases. Methods and Findings We performed a retrospective descriptive study of hospital admissions using a government database of all hospital affiliated with the Brazilian health system. We studied all hospitalizations in children from 28 days through 19 years with diagnosis of bacterial sepsis defined by the criteria of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), (Appendix S1). Based on the data studied from 1992 through 2006, the pediatric hospital mortality rate was 1.23% and there were 556,073 pediatric admissions with bacterial sepsis with a mean mortality rate of 19.9%. There was a case reduction of 67% over.1992–2006 (p<0.001); however, the mortality rate remained unchanged (from 1992–1996, 20.5%; and from 2002–2006, 19.7%). Sepsis-hospital mortality rate was substantially higher than pneumonia (0.5%), HIV (3.3%), diarrhea (0.3%), undernutrition (2.3%), malaria (0.2%) and measles (0.7%). The human development index (HDI) and mortality rates (MR) by region were: North region 0.76 and 21.7%; Northeast region 0.72 and 27.1%; Central-West 0.81 and 23.5%; South region 0.83 and 12.2% and Southeast region 0.82 and 14.8%, respectively. Conclusions We concluded that sepsis remains an important health problem in children in Brazil. The institution of universal primary care programs has been associated with substantially reduced sepsis incidence and therefore deaths; however, hospital mortality rates in children with sepsis remain unchanged. Implementation of additional health initiatives to reduce sepsis mortality in hospitalized patients could have great impact on childhood mortality rates in Brazil. PMID:21674036

Conservative Fluid Management Prevents Age-Associated Ventilator Induced Mortality

PubMed Central

Herbert, Joseph A.; Valentine, Michael S.; Saravanan, Nivi; Schneck, Matthew B.; Pidaparti, Ramana; Fowler, Alpha A.; Reynolds, Angela M.; Heise, Rebecca L.

2017-01-01

Background Approximately 800 thousand patients require mechanical ventilation in the United States annually with an in-hospital mortality rate of over 30%. The majority of patients requiring mechanical ventilation are over the age of 65 and advanced age is known to increase the severity of ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI) and in-hosptial mortality rates. However, the mechanisms which predispose aging ventilator patients to increased mortality rates are not fully understood. Ventilation with conservative fluid management decreases mortality rates in acute respiratory distress patients, but to date there has been no investigation of the effect of conservative fluid management on VILI and ventilator associated mortality rates. We hypothesized that age-associated increases in susceptibility and incidence of pulmonary edema strongly promote age-related increases in ventilator associated mortality. Methods 2 month old and 20 month old male C57BL6 mice were mechanically ventilated with either high tidal volume (HVT) or low tidal volume (LVT) for up to 4 hours with either liberal or conservative fluid support. During ventilation, lung compliance, total lung capacity, and hysteresis curves were quantified. Following ventilation, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was analyzed for total protein content and inflammatory cell infiltration. Wet to dry ratios were used to directly measure edema in excised lungs. Lung histology was performed to quantify alveolar barrier damage/destruction. Age matched non-ventilated mice were used as controls. Results At 4hrs, both advanced age and HVT ventilation significantly increased markers of inflammation and injury, degraded pulmonary mechanics, and decreased survival rates. Conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema and improved pulmonary mechanics by 1hr in advanced age HVT subjects. In 4hr ventilations, conservative fluid support significantly diminished pulmonary edema, improved lung mechanics, and resulted in significantly lower mortality rates in older subjects. Conclusion Our study demonstrates that conservative fluid alone can attenuate the age associated increase in ventilator associated mortality. PMID:27188767

Mortality Among Homeless Adults in Boston: Shifts in Causes of Death Over a 15-year Period

PubMed Central

Baggett, Travis P.; Hwang, Stephen W.; O'Connell, James J.; Porneala, Bianca C.; Stringfellow, Erin J.; Orav, E. John; Singer, Daniel E.; Rigotti, Nancy A.

2013-01-01

Background Homeless persons experience excess mortality, but U.S.-based studies on this topic are outdated or lack information about causes of death. No studies have examined shifts in causes of death for this population over time. Methods We assessed all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in a cohort of 28,033 adults aged 18 years or older who were seen at Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2008. Deaths were identified through probabilistic linkage to the Massachusetts death occurrence files. We compared mortality rates in this cohort to rates in the 2003–08 Massachusetts population and a 1988–93 cohort of homeless adults in Boston using standardized rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Results 1,302 deaths occurred during 90,450 person-years of observation. Drug overdose (n=219), cancer (n=206), and heart disease (n=203) were the major causes of death. Drug overdose accounted for one-third of deaths among adults <45 years old. Opioids were implicated in 81% of overdose deaths. Mortality rates were higher among whites than non-whites. Compared to Massachusetts adults, mortality disparities were most pronounced among younger individuals, with rates about 9-fold higher in 25–44 year olds and 4.5-fold higher in 45–64 year olds. In comparison to 1988–93, reductions in HIV deaths were offset by 3- and 2-fold increases in deaths due to drug overdose and psychoactive substance use disorders, resulting in no significant difference in overall mortality. Conclusions The all-cause mortality rate among homeless adults in Boston remains high and unchanged since 1988–93 despite a major interim expansion in clinical services. Drug overdose has replaced HIV as the emerging epidemic. Interventions to reduce mortality in this population should include behavioral health integration into primary medical care, public health initiatives to prevent and reverse drug overdose, and social policy measures to end homelessness. PMID:23318302

A novel approach to analyzing lung cancer mortality disparities: Using the exposome and a graph-theoretical toolchain

PubMed Central

Juarez, Paul D; Hood, Darryl B; Rogers, Gary L; Baktash, Suzanne H; Saxton, Arnold M; Matthews-Juarez, Patricia; Im, Wansoo; Cifuentes, Myriam Patricia; Phillips, Charles A; Lichtveld, Maureen Y; Langston, Michael A

2017-01-01

Objectives The aim is to identify exposures associated with lung cancer mortality and mortality disparities by race and gender using an exposome database coupled to a graph theoretical toolchain. Methods Graph theoretical algorithms were employed to extract paracliques from correlation graphs using associations between 2162 environmental exposures and lung cancer mortality rates in 2067 counties, with clique doubling applied to compute an absolute threshold of significance. Factor analysis and multiple linear regressions then were used to analyze differences in exposures associated with lung cancer mortality and mortality disparities by race and gender. Results While cigarette consumption was highly correlated with rates of lung cancer mortality for both white men and women, previously unidentified novel exposures were more closely associated with lung cancer mortality and mortality disparities for blacks, particularly black women. Conclusions Exposures beyond smoking moderate lung cancer mortality and mortality disparities by race and gender. Policy Implications An exposome approach and database coupled with scalable combinatorial analytics provides a powerful new approach for analyzing relationships between multiple environmental exposures, pathways and health outcomes. An assessment of multiple exposures is needed to appropriately translate research findings into environmental public health practice and policy. PMID:29152601

Unintentional fall-related mortality in the elderly: comparing patterns in two countries with different demographic structure

PubMed Central

Majdan, Marek; Mauritz, Walter

2015-01-01

Objectives Falls are among the major external causes of unintentional injury and injury-related mortality in the elderly. The aim of this study was to compare the patterns of unintentional fall-related mortalities in two countries with different demographic structure: Slovakia and Austria in 2003–2010. Methods A study was conducted using death certificate data, trends of fall-related mortality in the elderly (over 65 years) in Austria and Slovakia were compared. Crude and age-standardised mortality rates were calculated. Rate ratios were used to quantify differences based on age, sex and country. The role of demographic structure and population ageing was considered. Results The annual average crude mortality for Slovakia was 28.82, for Austria 54.19 per 100 000 person-years. Increasing rates were observed towards higher age in both countries. Males had higher mortality than females (1.18 times higher in Austria, 2.4 higher in Slovakia). In ages over 75 years rates were significantly higher in Austria, compared to Slovakia. Injuries to head (in males) and hip (in females) were most commonly the underlying cause of death. The proportion of populations over 65 and over 80 and rate of their increase were higher in Austria than in Slovakia. Conclusions We conclude that higher proportions of the elderly population of Austria could have contributed to the higher fall-related mortality rates compared to Slovakia, especially in females over 80 years. Our study quantified the differences between two countries with different structure of the elderly population and these findings could be used in planning future needs of health and social services and to plan prevention in countries where a rapid increase in age of the population can be foreseen. PMID:26270950

South African child deaths 1990–2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?

PubMed Central

Kerber, Kate J.; Lawn, Joy E.; Johnson, Leigh F.; Mahy, Mary; Dorrington, Rob E.; Phillips, Heston; Bradshaw, Debbie; Nannan, Nadine; Msemburi, William; Oestergaard, Mikkel Z.; Walker, Neff P.; Sanders, David; Jackson, Debra

2013-01-01

Objective: To analyse trends in under-five mortality rate in South Africa (1990–2011), particularly the contribution of AIDS deaths. Methods: Three nationally used models for estimating AIDS deaths in children were systematically reviewed. The model outputs were compared with under-five mortality rate estimates for South Africa from two global estimation models. All estimates were compared with available empirical data. Results: Differences between the models resulted in varying point estimates for under-five mortality but the trends were similar, with mortality increasing to a peak around 2005. The three models showing the contribution of AIDS suggest a maximum of 37–39% of child deaths were due to AIDS in 2004–2005 which has since declined. Although the rate of progress from 1990 is not the 4.4% needed to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival, South Africa's average annual rate of under-five mortality decline between 2006 and 2011 was between 6.3 and 10.2%. Conclusion: In 2005, South Africa was one of only four countries globally with an under-five mortality rate higher than the 1990 Millennium Development Goal baseline. Over the past 5 years, the country has achieved a rate of child mortality reduction exceeded by only three other countries. This rapid turnaround is likely due to scale-up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and to a lesser degree, the expanded roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Emphasis on these programmes must continue, but failure to address other aspects of care including integrated high-quality maternal and neonatal care means that the decline in child mortality could stall. PMID:23863402

The Secular Trends in the Incidence Rate and Outcomes of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in Taiwan—A Nationwide Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Cheng-Yi; Wang, Jen-Yu; Teng, Nai-Chi; Chao, Ting-Ting; Tsai, Shu-Ling; Chen, Chi-Liang; Hsu, Jeng-Yuan; Wu, Chin-Pyng; Lai, Chih-Cheng; Chen, Likwang

2015-01-01

Objective This study investigated the trends in incidence and mortality of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), as well as factors associated with OHCA outcomes in Taiwan. Methods Our study included OHCA patients requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) upon arrival at the hospital. We used national time-series data on annual OHCA incidence rates and mortality rates from 2000 to 2012, and individual demographic and clinical data for all OHCA patients requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) care from March of 2010 to September of 2011. Analytic techniques included the time-series regression and the logistic regression. Results There were 117,787 OHCAs in total. The overall incidence rate during the 13 years was 51.1 per 100,000 persons, and the secular trend indicates a sharp increase in the early 2000s and a decrease afterwards. The trend in mortality was also curvilinear, revealing a substantial increase in the early 2000s, a subsequent steep decline and finally a modest increase. Both the 30-day and 180-day mortality rates had a long-term decreasing trend over the period (p<0.01). For both incidence and mortality rates, a significant second-order autoregressive effect emerged. Among OHCA patients with MV, 1-day, 30-day and 180-day mortality rates were 31.3%, 75.8%, and 86.0%, respectively. In this cohort, older age, the female gender, and a Charlson comorbidity index score ≥ 2 were associated with higher 180-day mortality; patients delivered to regional hospitals and those residing in non-metropolitan areas had higher death risk. Conclusions Overall, both the 30-day and the 180-day mortality rates after OHCA had a long-term decreasing trend, while the 1-day mortality had no long-term decline. Among OHCA patients requiring MV, those delivered to regional hospitals and those residing in non-metropolitan areas tended to have higher mortality, suggesting a need for effort to further standardize and improve in-hospital care across hospitals and to advance pre-hospital care in non-metropolitan areas. PMID:25875921

Mortality and potential years of life lost by road traffic injuries in Brazil, 2013

PubMed Central

Andrade, Silvânia Suely Caribé de Araújo; de Mello-Jorge, Maria Helena Prado

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the potential years of life lost by road traffic injuries three years after the beginning of the Decade of Action for Traffic Safety. METHODS We analyzed the data of the Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM – Mortality Information System) related to road traffic injuries, in 2013. We estimated the crude and standardized mortality rates for Brazil and geographic regions. We calculated, for the Country, the proportional mortality according to age groups, education level, race/skin color, and type or quality of the victim while user of the public highway. We estimated the potential years of life lost according to sex. RESULTS The mortality rate in 2013 was of 21.0 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants for the Country. The Midwest region presented the highest rate (29.9 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). Most of the deaths by road traffic injuries took place with males (34.9 deaths per 100,000 males). More than half of the people who have died because of road traffic injuries were of black race/skin color, young adults (24.2%), individuals with low schooling (24.0%), and motorcyclists (28.5%). The mortality rate in the triennium 2011-2013 decreased 4.1%, but increased among motorcyclists. Across the Country, more than a million of potential years of life were lost, in 2013, because of road traffic injuries, especially in the age group of 20 to 29 years. CONCLUSIONS The impact of the high mortality rate is of over a million of potential years of life lost by road traffic injuries, especially among adults in productive age (early mortality), in only one year, representing extreme social cost arising from a cause of death that could be prevented. Despite the reduction of mortality by road traffic injuries from 2011 to 2013, the mortality rates increased among motorcyclists. PMID:27706375

Child Mortality Estimation: Estimating Sex Differences in Childhood Mortality since the 1970s

PubMed Central

Sawyer, Cheryl Chriss

2012-01-01

Introduction Producing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1–4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s. Methods and Findings Simple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls'. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1–4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter. Conclusions The methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. PMID:22952433

Regional variation in coronary heart disease mortality trends in Portugal, 1981-2012.

PubMed

Araújo, Carla; Pereira, Marta; Viana, Marta; Rocha, Olga Laszczyńska; Bennett, Kathleen; Lunet, Nuno; Azevedo, Ana

2016-12-01

Information is scarce about the geographic variation in time trends of mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD). We aimed to describe trends in death rates, absolute number of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) due to CHD among men and women in Portugal, by region, from 1981 to 2012. The age-standardized mortality rates from CHD were estimated by sex and region. We used joinpoint regression analysis to calculate the annual percent change (APC) in mortality and to identify points of significant change in the trend. The YLL due to premature mortality for CHD were computed using the Global Burden of Disease method. The age-adjusted mortality from CHD decreased between 1981 and 2012, both in men and women, but with significantly different APC by region. Smaller declines in rates were observed in Alentejo (men: APC 1993-2012: -2.4%; women: APC 1991-2012: -2.4%). The greatest decline was observed in Madeira between 2003 and 2012, in men (APC: -7.6%) and women (APC: -9.7%). The decline in rates in Algarve started only after 2003, whereas it was consistent from 1981 in the North and started in the 1990s in most other regions. A decrease in the number of deaths was only observed after 2000. The YLL from CHD decreased from 1981 to 2012, mainly after 2000. In Portugal, between 1981 and 2012, relative declines of CHD mortality indicators were different by geographic region. Consistent decreases in mortality rates were only observed in the Centre, Lisbon and North, the most populated and urbanized regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185

Meta-Analysis of Perioperative Stroke and Mortality in Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

PubMed

Muralidharan, Aditya; Thiagarajan, Karthy; Van Ham, Raymond; Gleason, Thomas G; Mulukutla, Suresh; Schindler, John T; Jeevanantham, Vinodh; Thirumala, Parthasarathy D

2016-10-01

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a rapidly evolving safe method with decreasing incidence of perioperative stroke. There is a void in literature concerning the impact of stroke after TAVI in predicting 30-day stroke-related mortality. The primary aim of this meta-analysis was to determine whether perioperative stroke increases risk of stroke-related mortality after TAVI. Online databases, using relevant keywords, and additional related records were searched to retrieve articles involving TAVI and stroke after TAVI. Data were extracted from the finalized studies and analyzed to generate a summary odds ratio (OR) of stroke-related mortality after TAVI. The stroke rate and stroke-related mortality rate in the total patient population were 3.07% (893 of 29,043) and 12.27% (252 of 2,053), respectively. The all-cause mortality rate was 7.07% (2,053 of 29,043). Summary OR of stroke-related mortality after TAVI was estimated to be 6.45 (95% confidence interval 3.90 to 10.66, p <0.0001). Subgroup analyses were performed among age, approach, and valve type. Only 1 subgroup, transapical TAVI, was not significantly associated with stroke-related mortality (OR 1.97, 95% confidence interval, 0.43 to 7.43, p = 0.42). A metaregression was conducted among females, New York Heart Association class III/IV status, previous stroke, valve type, and implantation route. All failed to exhibit any significant associations with the OR. In conclusion, perioperative strokes after TAVI are associated with >6 times greater risk of 30-day stroke-related mortality. Transapical TAVI is not associated with increased stroke-related mortality in patients who suffer from perioperative stroke. Preventative measures need to be taken to alleviate the elevated rates of stroke after TAVI and subsequent direct mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in Mortality of Tuberculosis Patients in the United States: The Long-term Perspective

PubMed Central

Barnes, Richard F.W.; Moore, Maria Luisa; Garfein, Richard S.; Brodine, Stephanie; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Rodwell, Timothy C.

2011-01-01

PURPOSE To describe long-term trends in TB mortality and to compare trends estimated from two different sources of public health surveillance data. METHODS Trends and changes in trend were estimated by joinpoint regression. Comparisons between datasets were made by fitting a Poisson regression model. RESULTS Since 1900, TB mortality rates estimated from death certificates have declined steeply, except for a period of no change in the 1980s. This decade had long-term consequences resulting in more TB deaths in later years than would have occurred had there been no flattening of the trend. Recent trends in TB mortality estimated from National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) data, which record all-cause mortality, differed from trends based on death certificates. In particular, NTSS data showed TB mortality rates flattening since 2002. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of trends in TB mortality vary by data source, and therefore interpretation of the success of control efforts will depend upon the surveillance dataset used. The datasets may be subject to different biases that vary with time. One dataset showed a sustained improvement in the control of TB since the early 1990s while the other indicated that the rate of TB mortality was no longer declining. PMID:21820320

Impact of endoscopic screening on mortality reduction from gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Hamashima, Chisato; Ogoshi, Kazuei; Narisawa, Rintarou; Kishi, Tomoki; Kato, Toshiyuki; Fujita, Kazutaka; Sano, Masatoshi; Tsukioka, Satoshi

2015-01-01

AIM: To investigate mortality reduction from gastric cancer based on the results of endoscopic screening. METHODS: The study population consisted of participants of gastric cancer screening by endoscopy, regular radiography, and photofluorography at Niigata city in 2005. The observed numbers of cumulative deaths from gastric cancers and other cancers were accumulated by linkage with the Niigata Prefectural Cancer Registry. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of gastric cancer and other cancer deaths in each screening group was calculated by applying the mortality rate of the reference population. RESULTS: Based on the results calculated from the mortality rate of the population of Niigata city, the SMRs of gastric cancer death were 0.43 (95%CI: 0.30-0.57) for the endoscopic screening group, 0.68 (95%CI: 0.55-0.79) for the regular radiographic screening group, and 0.85 (95%CI: 0.71-0.94) for the photofluorography screening group. The mortality reduction from gastric cancer was higher in the endoscopic screening group than in the regular radiographic screening group despite the nearly equal mortality rates of all cancers except gastric cancer. CONCLUSION: The 57% mortality reduction from gastric cancer might indicate the effectiveness of endoscopic screening for gastric cancer. Further studies and prudent interpretation of results are needed. PMID:25741155

[Suicide trends in Colombia, 1985-2002].

PubMed

Cendales, Ricardo; Vanegas, Claudia; Fierro, Marco; Córdoba, Rodrigo; Olarte, Ana

2007-10-01

To report trends in mortality from suicide in Colombia from 1985 to 2002 by sex, age group, and method, and determine the number of Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL) to suicide during this period. Age- and sex-specific and age-adjusted crude mortality rates were calculated based on mortality and population information available from the official database of the Department of National Statistics Administration, Colombia. YPLL were estimated and adjusted for societal impact, age, and poor quality of mortality records. The results were tabulated according to codes X600-X849 and Y870 from the International Statistical Classification of Disease and Related Health Problems, 10th revision (ICD-10), and codes E950-E959 from the 9th revision (ICD-9). Suicide rates have been climbing in Colombia since 1998, particularly among young adults and males. The highest rates among males were in the age groups 20-29 years of age and over 70 years of age, and rates increased over time. Among females, the highest rates were recorded for the group 10-19 years of age. The YPLL rose in proportion with the increase in suicides, from 0.81% in 1981 to 2.20% in 2002. Among males, the most common methods used were firearms and explosives, hanging, and poison, with a relative increase in hanging; whereas among females, poison was most common. A rising trend in suicide rates in Colombia was confirmed, especially among the productive segment of the population, which has resulted in a marked increase in YPLL.

Trends in Hospitalization Rates and Outcomes of Endocarditis among Medicare Beneficiaries

PubMed Central

Bikdeli, Behnood; Wang, Yun; Kim, Nancy; Desai, Mayur M.; Quagliarello, Vincent; Krumholz, Harlan M.

2015-01-01

Objectives To determine the hospitalization rates and outcomes of endocarditis among older adults. Background Endocarditis is the most serious cardiovascular infection and is especially common among older adults. Little is known about recent trends for endocarditis hospitalizations and outcomes. Methods Using Medicare inpatient Standard Analytic Files, we identified all Fee-For-Service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years with a principal or secondary diagnosis of endocarditis from 1999-2010. We used Medicare Denominator Files to report hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years. Rates of 30-day and 1-year mortality were calculated using Vital Status Files. We used mixed-effects models to calculate adjusted rates of hospitalization and mortality and to compare the results before and after 2007, when the American Heart Association revised recommendations for endocarditis prophylaxis. Results Overall, 262,658 beneficiaries were hospitalized with endocarditis. The adjusted hospitalization rate increased from 1999-2005, reaching 83.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2005, and declined during 2006-2007. After 2007, the decline continued, reaching 70.6 per 100,000 person-years in 2010. Adjusted 30-day and 1-year mortality rates ranged from 14.2% to 16.5% and from 32.6% to 36.2%, respectively. There were no consistent changes in adjusted rates of 30-day and 1-year mortality after 2007. Trends in rates of hospitalization and outcomes were consistent across demographic subgroups. Adjusted rates of hospitalization and mortality declined consistently in the subgroup with principal diagnosis of endocarditis. Conclusions Our study highlights the high burden of endocarditis among older adults. We did not observe an increase in adjusted rates of hospitalization or mortality associated with endocarditis after publication of the 2007 guidelines. PMID:23994421

Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

PubMed Central

Bishai, David; Opuni, Marjorie

2009-01-01

Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR) time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model) and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model). We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR) on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log transform. PMID:19698144

Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Asian Americans (2003–2010)

PubMed Central

Jose, Powell O.; Frank, Ariel TH; Kapphahn, Kristopher I.; Goldstein, Benjamin A.; Eggleston, Karen; Hastings, Katherine G.; Cullen, Mark R.; Palaniappan, Latha P

2014-01-01

Background Asian Americans are a rapidly growing racial/ethnic group in the United States. Our current understanding of Asian-American cardiovascular disease mortality patterns is distorted by the aggregation of distinct subgroups. Objectives To examine heart disease and stroke mortality rates in Asian-American subgroups to determine racial/ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease mortality within the United States. Methods We examined heart disease and stroke mortality rates for the 6 largest Asian-American subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese) from 2003–2010. U.S. death records were used to identify race/ethnicity and cause of death by ICD-10 coding. Using both U.S. Census and death record data, standardized mortality ratios (SMR), relative SMRs (rSMR), and proportional mortality ratios (PMR) were calculated for each sex and ethnic group relative to Non-Hispanic Whites (NHW). Results 10,442,034 death records were examined. While NHW men and women had the highest overall mortality rates, Asian Indian men and women and Filipino men had greater proportionate mortality burden from ischemic heart disease. The proportionate mortality burden of hypertensive heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, especially hemorrhagic stroke, was higher in every Asian-American subgroup compared to NHWs. Conclusions The heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease mortality patterns among diverse Asian-American subgroups calls attention to the need for more research to help direct more specific treatment and prevention efforts, in particular with hypertension and stroke, to reduce health disparities for this growing population. PMID:25500233

Occupational vs. Industry Sector Classification of the US workforce: Which approach is more strongly associated with worker health outcomes?

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Objectives Through use of a nationally representative database, we examined the variability in both self-rated health and overall mortality risk within occupations across the National Occupational Research Agenda (NORA) Industry Sectors, as well as between the occupations within the NORA Industry sectors. Methods Using multiple waves of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) representing an estimated 119,343,749 US workers per year from 1986–2004, age-adjusted self-rated health and overall mortality rates were examined by occupation and by NORA Industry Sector. Results There was considerable variability in the prevalence rate of age-adjusted self-rated poor/fair health and overall mortality rates for all US workers. The variability was greatest when examining these data by the Industry Sectors. In addition, we identified an overall pattern of increased poor/fair self-reported health and increased mortality rates concentrated among particular occupations and particular Industry Sectors. Conclusions This study suggests that using occupational categories within and across Industry Sectors would improve the characterization of the health status and health disparities of many subpopulations of workers within these Industry Sectors. PMID:21671459

Female breast cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2013

PubMed Central

Zuo, Ting‐Ting; Zheng, Rong‐Shou; Zeng, Hong‐Mei; Zhang, Si‐Wei

2017-01-01

Background Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women. Population‐based cancer registration data from the National Central Cancer Registry were used to analyze and evaluate the incidence and mortality rates in China in 2013, providing scientific information for cancer prevention and control. Methods Pooled data were stratified by area (urban/rural), gender, and age group. National new cases and deaths were estimated using age‐specific rates and the corresponding population in 2013. The Chinese population in 2000 and Segi's world population were used to calculate age‐standardized rates. Results The estimated number of new breast cancer cases was about 278 800 in China in 2013. The crude incidence, age‐standardized rate of incidence by Chinese standard population, and age‐standardized rate of incidence by world standard population were 42.02/100 000, 30.41/100 000, and 28.42/100 000, respectively. The estimated number of breast cancer deaths was about 64 600 in China in 2013. The crude mortality, age‐standardized rate of mortality by Chinese standard population, and age‐standardized rate of mortality by world standard population were 9.74/100 000, 6.54/100 000, and 6.34/100 000, respectively. Both incidence and mortality were higher in urban than in rural areas. Age‐specific breast cancer incidence significantly increased with age, particularly after age 20, and peaked at 50–55 years, while age‐specific mortality increased rapidly after 25 years, peaking at 85+ years. Conclusions Breast cancer is the most common cancer in Chinese women, especially women in urban areas. Comprehensive measures are needed to reduce the heavy burden of breast cancer. PMID:28296260

Pulmonary Embolism Mortality in Brazil from 1989 to 2010: Gender and Regional Disparities

PubMed Central

Darze, Eduardo Sahade; Casqueiro, Juliana Borges; Ciuffo, Luisa Allen; Santos, Jessica Mendes; Magalhães, Iuri Resedá; Latado, Adriana Lopes

2016-01-01

Background A significant variation in pulmonary embolism (PE) mortality trends have been documented around the world. We investigated the trends in mortality rate from PE in Brazil over a period of 21 years and its regional and gender differences. Methods Using a nationwide database of death certificate information we searched for all cases with PE as the underlying cause of death between 1989 and 2010. Population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). We calculated age-, gender- and region-specific mortality rates for each year, using the 2000 Brazilian population for direct standardization. Results Over 21 years the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) fell 31% from 3.04/100,000 to 2.09/100,000. In every year between 1989 and 2010, the ASMR was higher in women than in men, but both showed a significant declining trend, from 3.10/100,000 to 2.36/100,000 and from 2.94/100,000 to 1.80/100,000, respectively. Although all country regions showed a decline in their ASMR, the largest fall in death rates was concentrated in the highest income regions of the South and Southeast Brazil. The North and Northeast regions, the lowest income areas, showed a less marked fall in death rates and no distinct change in the PE mortality rate in women. Conclusions Our study showed a reduction in the PE mortality rate over two decades in Brazil. However, significant variation in this trend was observed amongst the five country regions and between genders, pointing to possible disparities in health care access and quality in these groups. PMID:26559854

Health system determinants of infant, child and maternal mortality: A cross-sectional study of UN member countries

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Objective Few studies have examined the link between health system strength and important public health outcomes across nations. We examined the association between health system indicators and mortality rates. Methods We used mixed effects linear regression models to investigate the strength of association between outcome and explanatory variables, while accounting for geographic clustering of countries. We modelled infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR), and maternal mortality rate (MMR) using 13 explanatory variables as outlined by the World Health Organization. Results Significant protective health system determinants related to IMR included higher physician density (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 0.81; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.71-0.91), higher sustainable access to water and sanitation (aRR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78-0.93), and having a less corrupt government (aRR 0.57; 95% CI 0.40-0.80). Out-of-pocket expenditures on health (aRR 1.29; 95% CI 1.03-1.62) were a risk factor. The same four variables were significantly related to CMR after controlling for other variables. Protective determinants of MMR included access to water and sanitation (aRR 0.88; 95% CI 0.82-0.94), having a less corrupt government (aRR 0.49; 95%; CI 0.36-0.66), and higher total expenditures on health per capita (aRR 0.84; 95% CI 0.77-0.92). Higher fertility rates (aRR 2.85; 95% CI: 2.02-4.00) were found to be a significant risk factor for MMR. Conclusion Several key measures of a health system predict mortality in infants, children, and maternal mortality rates at the national level. Improving access to water and sanitation and reducing corruption within the health sector should become priorities. PMID:22023970

Evaluation of a mark-recapture method for estimating mortality and migration rates of stratified populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Rago, P.J.

1991-01-01

We simulated mark–recapture experiments to evaluate a method for estimating fishing mortality and migration rates of populations stratified at release and recovery. When fish released in two or more strata were recovered from different recapture strata in nearly the same proportions, conditional recapture probabilities were estimated outside the [0, 1] interval. The maximum likelihood estimates tended to be biased and imprecise when the patterns of recaptures produced extremely "flat" likelihood surfaces. Absence of bias was not guaranteed, however, in experiments where recapture rates could be estimated within the [0, 1] interval. Inadequate numbers of tag releases and recoveries also produced biased estimates, although the bias was easily detected by the high sampling variability of the estimates. A stratified tag–recapture experiment with sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) was used to demonstrate procedures for analyzing data that produce biased estimates of recapture probabilities. An estimator was derived to examine the sensitivity of recapture rate estimates to assumed differences in natural and tagging mortality, tag loss, and incomplete reporting of tag recoveries.

Understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda including the estimation of unobserved household and community effects using both frequentist and Bayesian survival analysis approaches.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry G; Achia, Thomas N O

2015-10-01

Infant and child mortality rates are among the health indicators of importance in a given community or country. It is the fourth millennium development goal that by 2015, all the United Nations member countries are expected to have reduced their infant and child mortality rates by two-thirds. Uganda is one of those countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with high infant and child mortality rates, therefore it is important to use sound statistical methods to determine which factors are strongly associated with child mortality which in turn will help inform the design of intervention strategies The Uganda Demographic Health Survey (UDHS) funded by USAID, UNFPA, UNICEF, Irish Aid and the United Kingdom government provides a data set which is rich in information on child mortality or survival. Survival analysis techniques are among the well-developed methods in Statistics for analysing time to event data. These methods were adopted in this paper to examine factors affecting under-five child mortality rates (UMR) in Uganda using the UDHS data for 2011 in R and STATA software. Results obtained by fitting the Cox-proportional hazard model with frailty effects and drawing inference using both the frequentists and Bayesian approaches at 5 % significance level, show evidence of the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the household level but there was not enough evidence to conclude the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the community level. Sex of the household head, sex of the child and number of births in the past one year were found to be significant. The results further suggest that over the period of 1990-2015, Uganda reduced its UMR by 52 % . Uganda has not achieved the MDG4 target but the 52 % reduction in the UMR is a move in the positive direction. Demographic factors (sex of the household head) and Biological determinants (sex of the child and number of births in the past one year) are strongly associated with high UMR. Heterogeneity or unobserved covariates were found to be significant at the household but insignificant at the community level.

Contextual determinants of neonatal mortality using two analysis methods, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

PubMed

Zanini, Roselaine Ruviaro; Moraes, Anaelena Bragança de; Giugliani, Elsa Regina Justo; Riboldi, João

2011-02-01

To analyze neonatal mortality determinants using multilevel logistic regression and classic hierarchical models. Cohort study including 138,407 live births with birth certificates and 1,134 neonatal deaths recorded in 2003, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil. The Information System on Live Births and mortality records were linked for gathering information on individual-level exposures. Sociodemographic data and information on the pregnancy, childbirth care and characteristics of the children at birth were collected. The associated factors were estimated and compared by traditional and multilevel logistic regression analysis. The neonatal mortality rate was 8.19 deaths per 1,000 live births. Low birth weight, 1- and 5-minute Apgar score below eight, congenital malformation, pre-term birth and previous fetal loss were associated with neonatal death in the traditional model. Elective cesarean section had a protective effect. Previous fetal loss did not remain significant in the multilevel model, but the inclusion of a contextual variable (poverty rate) showed that 15% of neonatal mortality variation can be explained by varying poverty rates in the microregions. The use of multilevel models showed a small effect of contextual determinants on the neonatal mortality rate. There was found a positive association with the poverty rate in the general model, and the proportion of households with water supply among preterm newborns.

Prostate Cancer Mortality and Herbicide Exposure in Vietnam Veterans

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-04-01

death rates , proportional mortality ratios (PMR), standardized mortality ratios (SMR), and logistic regression methods, using unexposed veterans as a reference population. RESULTS. NDI queries yielded causes of death for claimants who had died by 12 December 1999. Overall mortality was elevated for malignancies which the Institute of Medicine deemed sufficient evidence of association with herbicides. Microfilm record abstraction of military unit histories was completed for prostate cancer cases and controls. Exposure assessment for veterans serving in stable Army and Air

Cancer Mortality Among Men in Central Serbia: 1985-2006 Survey Study

PubMed Central

Marković-Denić, Ljiljana; Vlajinac, Hristina; Živković, Snežana; Miljuš, Dragan

2008-01-01

Aim To analyze cancer mortality trends in men in Central Serbia during 1985-2006 period. Methods Mortality rates and trends for the most frequent cancers in men (lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancer) were calculated. Mortality rates for all cancers were adjusted by direct standardization. Percentage changes of the rates were calculated as the percentage difference between the rates of two successive years and then as a mean of these changes for the entire observed period. Trend lines were estimated using linear regression. Results Total cancer mortality in men increased, with mean percentage of annual changes being 1.53% (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.09-3.16). Lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancers represented 58.1% and 61.6% of total cancer deaths in 1985 and 2006, respectively. Increasing trends were observed for all investigated cancers: mean annual percentage change for lung cancer was 2.31%(95% CI, 1.03-3.59), for colorectal cancer 2.23% (95% CI, -0.18-4.65), for prostate cancer 3.06% (95% CI, -2.07-8.18), and for pancreatic cancer 1.58% (95% CI, -2.17-5.32). Stomach cancer mortality significantly decreased in age groups 40-49 and 50-59 years. Conclusion The most frequent cancers in men in Central Serbia, ie, lung, colorectal, prostate, and pancreatic cancer, showed an increasing trend. Only stomach cancer mortality decreased over time. PMID:19090604

The effect of adjusting model inputs to achieve mass balance on time-dynamic simulations in a food-web model of Lake Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langseth, Brian J.; Jones, Michael L.; Riley, Stephen C.

2014-01-01

Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is a widely used modeling tool in fishery research and management. Ecopath requires a mass-balanced snapshot of a food web at a particular point in time, which Ecosim then uses to simulate changes in biomass over time. Initial inputs to Ecopath, including estimates for biomasses, production to biomass ratios, consumption to biomass ratios, and diets, rarely produce mass balance, and thus ad hoc changes to inputs are required to balance the model. There has been little previous research of whether ad hoc changes to achieve mass balance affect Ecosim simulations. We constructed an EwE model for the offshore community of Lake Huron, and balanced the model using four contrasting but realistic methods. The four balancing methods were based on two contrasting approaches; in the first approach, production of unbalanced groups was increased by increasing either biomass or the production to biomass ratio, while in the second approach, consumption of predators on unbalanced groups was decreased by decreasing either biomass or the consumption to biomass ratio. We compared six simulation scenarios based on three alternative assumptions about the extent to which mortality rates of prey can change in response to changes in predator biomass (i.e., vulnerabilities) under perturbations to either fishing mortality or environmental production. Changes in simulated biomass values over time were used in a principal components analysis to assess the comparative effect of balancing method, vulnerabilities, and perturbation types. Vulnerabilities explained the most variation in biomass, followed by the type of perturbation. Choice of balancing method explained little of the overall variation in biomass. Under scenarios where changes in predator biomass caused large changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., high vulnerabilities), variation in biomass was greater than when changes in predator biomass caused only small changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., low vulnerabilities), and was amplified when environmental production was increased. When standardized to mean changes in biomass within each scenario, scenarios when vulnerabilities were low and when fishing mortality was increased explained the most variation in biomass. Our findings suggested that approaches to balancing Ecopath models have relatively little effect on changes in biomass over time, especially when compared to assumptions about how mortality rates of prey change in response to changes in predator biomass. We concluded that when constructing food-web models using EwE, determining the effect of changes in predator biomass on mortality rates of prey should be prioritized over determining the best way to balance the model.

Six-minute walk test and heart rate variability: lack of association in advanced stages of heart failure.

PubMed

Woo, M A; Moser, D K; Stevenson, L W; Stevenson, W G

1997-09-01

The 6-minute walk and heart rate variability have been used to assess mortality risk in patients with heart failure, but their relationship to each other and their usefulness for predicting mortality at 1 year are unknown. To assess the relationships between the 6-minute walk test, heart rate variability, and 1-year mortality. A sample of 113 patients in advanced stages of heart failure (New York Heart Association Functional Class III-IV, left ventricular ejection < 0.25) were studied. All 6-minute walks took place in an enclosed, level, measured corridor and were supervised by the same nurse. Heart rate variability was measured by using (1) a standard-deviation method and (2) Poincaré plots. Data on RR intervals obtained by using 24-hour Holter monitoring were analyzed. Survival was determined at 1 year after the Holter recording. The results showed no significant associations between the results of the 6-minute walk and the two measures of heart rate variability. The results of the walk were related to 1-year mortality but not to the risk of sudden death. Both measures of heart rate variability had significant associations with 1-year mortality and with sudden death. However, only heart rate variability measured by using Poincaré plots was a predictor of total mortality and risk of sudden death, independent of left ventricular ejection fraction, serum levels of sodium, results of the 6-minute walk test, and the standard-deviation measure of heart rate variability. Results of the 6-minute walk have poor association with mortality and the two measures of heart rate variability in patients with advanced-stage heart failure and a low ejection fraction. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal clinical usefulness of the 6-minute walk and heart rate variability in patients with advanced-stage heart failure.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

PubMed

Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

2014-09-01

Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Heart rate deceleration runs for postinfarction risk prediction.

PubMed

Guzik, Przemyslaw; Piskorski, Jaroslaw; Barthel, Petra; Bauer, Axel; Müller, Alexander; Junk, Nadine; Ulm, Kurt; Malik, Marek; Schmidt, Georg

2012-01-01

A method for counting episodes of uninterrupted beat-to-beat heart rate decelerations was developed. The method was set up and evaluated using 24-hour electrocardiogram Holter recordings of 1455 (training sample) and 946 (validation sample) postinfarction patients. During a median follow-up of 24 months, 70, 46, and 19 patients of the training sample suffered from total, cardiac, and sudden cardiac mortality, respectively. In the validation sample, these numbers were 39, 25, and 15. Episodes of consecutive beat-to-beat heart rate decelerations (deceleration runs [DRs]) were characterized by their length. Deceleration runs of 2 to 10 cycles were significantly less frequent in nonsurvivors. Multivariate model of DRs of 2, 4, and 8 cycles identified low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. In these groups of the training sample, the total mortalities were 1.8%, 6.1%, and 24%, respectively. In the validation sample, these numbers were 1.8%, 4.1%, and 21.9%. Infrequent DRs during 24-hour Holter indicate high risk of postinfarction mortality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population‐based survey methods to quantify associations between human rights violations and health outcomes among internally displaced persons in eastern Burma

PubMed Central

Mullany, Luke C; Richards, Adam K; Lee, Catherine I; Suwanvanichkij, Voravit; Maung, Cynthia; Mahn; Beyrer, Chris; Lee, Thomas J

2007-01-01

Background Case reports of human rights violations have focused on individuals' experiences. Population‐based quantification of associations between rights indicators and health outcomes is rare and has not been documented in eastern Burma. Objective We describe the association between mortality and morbidity and the household‐level experience of human rights violations among internally displaced persons in eastern Burma. Methods Mobile health workers in conflict zones of eastern Burma conducted 1834 retrospective household surveys in 2004. Workers recorded data on vital events, mid‐upper arm circumference of young children, malaria parasitaemia status of respondents and household experience of various human rights violations during the previous 12 months. Results Under‐5 mortality was 218 (95% confidence interval 135 to 301) per 1000 live births. Almost one‐third of households reported forced labour (32.6%). Forced displacement (8.9% of households) was associated with increased child mortality (odds ratio = 2.80), child malnutrition (odds ratio = 3.22) and landmine injury (odds ratio = 3.89). Theft or destruction of the food supply (reported by 25.2% of households) was associated with increased crude mortality (odds ratio = 1.58), malaria parasitaemia (odds ratio = 1.82), child malnutrition (odds ratio = 1.94) and landmine injury (odds ratio = 4.55). Multiple rights violations (14.4% of households) increased the risk of child (incidence rate ratio = 2.18) and crude (incidence rate ratio = 1.75) mortality and the odds of landmine injury (odds ratio = 19.8). Child mortality risk was increased more than fivefold (incidence rate ratio = 5.23) among families reporting three or more rights violations. Conclusions Widespread human rights violations in conflict zones in eastern Burma are associated with significantly increased morbidity and mortality. Population‐level associations can be quantified using standard epidemiological methods. This approach requires further validation and refinement elsewhere. PMID:17873229

Women's Education and Health Inequalities in Under-Five Mortality in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1990–2015

PubMed Central

Bado, Aristide Romaric; Sathiya Susuman, A.

2016-01-01

Background The aim of the study was to analyse trends in the relationship between mother’s educational level and mortality of children under the year of five in Sub-Saharan Africa, from 1990 to 2015. Data and Methods Data used in this study came from different waves of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Sub-Saharan countries. Logistic regression and Buis’s decomposition method were used to explore the effect of mother’s educational level on the mortality of children under five years. Results Although the results of our study in the selected countries show that under-five mortality rates of children born to mothers without formal education are higher than the mortality rates of children of educated mothers, it appears that differences in mortality were reduced over the past two decades. In selected countries for our study, we noticed a significant decline in mortality among children of non-educated mothers compared to the decrease in mortality rates among children of educated mothers during the period of 1990–2010. The results show that the decline in mortality of children under five years was much higher among the children born to mothers who have never received formal education—112 points drop in Malawi, over 80 in Zambia and Zimbabwe, 65 points in Burkina Faso, 56 in Congo, 43 in Namibia, 27 in Guinea, Cameroon, and 22 to 15 in Niger. However, we noted a variation in results among the countries selected for the study—in Burkina Faso (OR = 0.7), in Cameroon (OR = 0.8), in Guinea (OR = 0.8) and Niger (OR = 0.8). It is normally observed that children of mothers with 0–6 years of education are about 20% more likely to survive until their fifth year compared to children of mothers who have not been to school. Conversely, the results did not reveal significant differences between the under-five deaths of children born to non-educated mothers and children of low-level educated mothers in Congo, Malawi and Namibia. Conclusion The decline in under-five mortality rates, during last two decades, can be partly due to the government policies on women’s education. It is evident that women’s educational level has resulted in increased maternal awareness about infant health and hygiene, thereby bringing about a decline in the under-five mortality rates. This reduction is due to improved supply of health care programmes and health policies in reducing economic inequalities and increasing access to health care. PMID:27442118

Measuring hospital performance in congenital heart surgery: Administrative vs. clinical registry data

PubMed Central

Pasquali, Sara K.; He, Xia; Jacobs, Jeffrey P.; Jacobs, Marshall L.; Gaies, Michael G.; Shah, Samir S.; Hall, Matthew; Gaynor, J. William; Peterson, Eric D.; Mayer, John E.; Hirsch-Romano, Jennifer C.

2015-01-01

Background In congenital heart surgery, hospital performance has historically been assessed using widely available administrative datasets. Recent studies have demonstrated inaccuracies in case ascertainment (coding and inclusion of eligible cases) in administrative vs. clinical registry data, however it is unclear whether this impacts assessment of performance on a hospital-level. Methods Merged data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Database (clinical registry), and Pediatric Health Information Systems Database (administrative dataset) on 46,056 children undergoing heart surgery (2006–2010) were utilized to evaluate in-hospital mortality for 33 hospitals based on their administrative vs. registry data. Standard methods to identify/classify cases were used: Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) in the administrative data, and STS–European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery (STAT) methodology in the registry. Results Median hospital surgical volume based on the registry data was 269 cases/yr; mortality was 2.9%. Hospital volumes and mortality rates based on the administrative data were on average 10.7% and 4.7% lower, respectively, although this varied widely across hospitals. Hospital rankings for mortality based on the administrative vs. registry data differed by ≥ 5 rank-positions for 24% of hospitals, with a change in mortality tertile classification (high, middle, or low mortality) for 18%, and change in statistical outlier classification for 12%. Higher volume/complexity hospitals were most impacted. Agency for Healthcare Quality and Research methods in the administrative data yielded similar results. Conclusions Inaccuracies in case ascertainment in administrative vs. clinical registry data can lead to important differences in assessment of hospital mortality rates for congenital heart surgery. PMID:25624057

Pattern of Blood Stream Infections within Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Suez Canal University Hospital, Ismailia, Egypt.

PubMed

Kishk, Rania Mohammed; Mandour, Mohamed Fouad; Farghaly, Rasha Mohamed; Ibrahim, Ahmed; Nemr, Nader Attia

2014-01-01

Introduction. Blood stream infection (BSI) is a common problem of newborn in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Monitoring neonatal infections is increasingly regarded as an important contributor to safe and high-quality healthcare. It results in high mortality rate and serious complications. So, our aim was to determine the incidence and the pattern of BSIs in the NICU of Suez Canal University Hospital, Egypt, and to determine its impact on hospitalization, mortality, and morbidity. Methods. This study was a prospective one in which all neonates admitted to the NICUs in Suez Canal University hospital between January, 2013 and June 2013 were enrolled. Blood stream infections were monitored prospectively. The health care associated infection rate, mortality rate, causative organism, and risk factors were studied. Results. A total of 317 neonates were admitted to the NICU with a mortality rate of 36.0%. During this study period, 115/317 (36.3%) developed clinical signs of sepsis and were confirmed as BSIs by blood culture in only 90 neonates with 97 isolates. The total mean length of stay was significantly longer among infected than noninfected neonates (34.5 ± 18.3 and 10.8 ± 9.9 days, resp., P value < 0.001). The overall mortality rates among infected and noninfected neonates were 38.9% and 34.8%, respectively, with a significant difference. Klebsiella spp. were the most common pathogen (27.8%) followed by Pseudomonas (21.6%) and Staphylococcus aureus (15.4%). Conclusion. The rate of BSIs in NICU at Suez Canal University Hospital was relatively high with high mortality rate (36.0%).

Pattern of Blood Stream Infections within Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Suez Canal University Hospital, Ismailia, Egypt

PubMed Central

Kishk, Rania Mohammed; Mandour, Mohamed Fouad; Farghaly, Rasha Mohamed; Ibrahim, Ahmed; Nemr, Nader Attia

2014-01-01

Introduction. Blood stream infection (BSI) is a common problem of newborn in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Monitoring neonatal infections is increasingly regarded as an important contributor to safe and high-quality healthcare. It results in high mortality rate and serious complications. So, our aim was to determine the incidence and the pattern of BSIs in the NICU of Suez Canal University Hospital, Egypt, and to determine its impact on hospitalization, mortality, and morbidity. Methods. This study was a prospective one in which all neonates admitted to the NICUs in Suez Canal University hospital between January, 2013 and June 2013 were enrolled. Blood stream infections were monitored prospectively. The health care associated infection rate, mortality rate, causative organism, and risk factors were studied. Results. A total of 317 neonates were admitted to the NICU with a mortality rate of 36.0%. During this study period, 115/317 (36.3%) developed clinical signs of sepsis and were confirmed as BSIs by blood culture in only 90 neonates with 97 isolates. The total mean length of stay was significantly longer among infected than noninfected neonates (34.5 ± 18.3 and 10.8 ± 9.9 days, resp., P value < 0.001). The overall mortality rates among infected and noninfected neonates were 38.9% and 34.8%, respectively, with a significant difference. Klebsiella spp. were the most common pathogen (27.8%) followed by Pseudomonas (21.6%) and Staphylococcus aureus (15.4%). Conclusion. The rate of BSIs in NICU at Suez Canal University Hospital was relatively high with high mortality rate (36.0%). PMID:25389439

Austrian firearm legislation and its effects on suicide and homicide mortality: A natural quasi-experiment amidst the global economic crisis.

PubMed

König, Daniel; Swoboda, Patrick; Cramer, Robert J; Krall, Christoph; Postuvan, Vita; Kapusta, Nestor D

2018-08-01

Restriction of access to suicide methods has been shown to effectively reduce suicide mortality rates. To examine how the global economic crisis of 2008 and the firearm legislation reform of 1997 affected suicide and homicide mortality rate within Austria. Official data for the years 1985-2016 for firearm certificates, suicide, homicide, unemployment rates and alcohol consumption were examined using auto regressive error and Poisson regression models. Firearm certificates, total suicide mortality rate, suicide and homicides by firearms, and the fraction of firearm suicides/homicides among all suicides/homicides decreased after the firearm legislation reform in 1997. However, significant trend changes can be observed after 2008. The availability of firearm certificates significantly increased and was accompanied by significant changes in trends of firearm suicide and homicide rates. Concurrently, the total suicide mortality rate in 2008, for the first time since 1985, stopped its decreasing trend. While the total homicide rate further decreased, the fraction of firearm homicides among all homicides significantly increased. The initially preventative effect of the firearm legislation reform in Austria in 1997 seems to have been counteracted by the global economic downturn of 2008. Increased firearm availability was associated with corresponding increases in both firearm suicide and firearm homicide mortality. Restrictive firearm legislation should be an imperative part of a country's suicide prevention programme. Although firearm legislation reform may have long-lasting effects, societal changes may facilitate compensatory firearm acquisitions and thus counteract preventive efforts, calling in turn again for adapted counter-measures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic gradients in all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality among immigrants and long-term residents using linked death records in Ontario, Canada

PubMed Central

Khan, Anam M; Urquia, Marcelo; Kornas, Kathy; Henry, David; Cheng, Stephanie Y; Bornbaum, Catherine

2017-01-01

Background Immigrants have been shown to possess a health advantage, yet are also more likely to reside in arduous economic conditions. Little is known about if and how the socioeconomic gradient for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality differs according to immigration status. Methods Using several linked population-based vital and demographic databases from Ontario, we examined a cohort of all deaths in the province between 2002 and 2012. We constructed count models, adjusted for relevant covariates, to attain age-adjusted mortality rates and rate ratios for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality across income quintile in immigrants and long-term residents, stratified by sex. Results A downward gradient in age-adjusted all-cause mortality was observed with increasing income quintile, in immigrants (males: Q5: 13.32, Q1: 20.18; females: Q5: 9.88, Q1: 12.51) and long-term residents (males: Q5: 33.25, Q1: 57.67; females: Q5: 22.31, Q1: 36.76). Comparing the lowest and highest income quintiles, male and female immigrants had a 56% and 28% lower all-cause mortality rate, respectively. Similar trends were observed for premature and avoidable mortality. Although immigrants had consistently lower mortality rates compared with long-term residents, trends only differed statistically across immigration status for females (p<0.05). Conclusions This study illustrated the presence of income disparities as it pertains to all-cause, premature, and avoidable mortality, irrespective of immigration status. Additionally, the immigrant health advantage was observed and income disparities were less pronounced in immigrants compared with long-term residents. These findings support the need to examine the factors that drive inequalities in mortality within and across immigration status. PMID:28289039

Liver Cancer Mortality and Food Consumption in Serbia, 1991-2010: An Ecological Study.

PubMed

Ilić, Milena; Radoman, Kristina; Konević, Slavica; Ilić, Irena

2016-06-01

This paper investigates the correlation between liver cancer mortality and consumption of food-groups in Serbia. We conducted an ecological study. The study comprised the population of the Republic of Serbia (about 7.5 million inhabitants) during the period 1991-2010. This ecological study included the data on food consumption per capita which were obtained by the Household Budget Survey and mortality data for liver cancer made available by the National Statistical Office. Linear trend model was used to assess a trend of age-adjusted liver cancer mortality rates (per 100,000 persons) that were calculated by the method of direct standardization using the World Standard Population. Pearson correlation was performed to examine the association between liver cancer mortality and per capita food consumption quantified with a correlation coefficient (r value). In Serbia, over the past two decades a significantly decreasing trend of liver cancer mortality rates has been observed (p<0.001). Liver cancer mortality was significantly (p<0.01) positively correlated with animal fat, beef, wine and spirits intake (r=0.713, 0.631, 0.632 and 0.745, respectively). A weakly positive correlation between milk consumption and mortality from liver cancer (r=0.559, p<0.05) was found only among women. The strongest correlation was found between spirits consumption and liver cancer mortality rates in women (r=0.851, p<0.01). A negative correlation between coffee consumption and age-adjusted liver cancer mortality rates was found (r=0.516, p<0.05) only for the eldest men (aged 65 years or older). Correlations between liver cancer and dietary habits were observed and further effort is needed in order to investigate a possible causative association, using epidemiological analytical studies. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2015.

Evolution of Cardiovascular Diseases Mortality in the Counties of the State of Rio de Janeiro from 1979 to 2010.

PubMed

Soares, Gabriel Porto; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Silva, Nelson Albuquerque de Souza e; Oliveira, Glaucia Maria Moraes de

2015-05-01

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in Brazil. To estimate total CVD, cerebrovascular disease (CBVD), and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in adults in the counties of the state of Rio de Janeiro (SRJ), from 1979 to 2010. The counties of the SRJ were analysed according to their denominations stablished by the geopolitical structure of 1950, Each new county that have since been created, splitting from their original county, was grouped according to their former origin. Population Data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and data on deaths were obtained from DataSus/MS. Mean CVD, CBVD, and IHD mortality rates were estimated, compensated for deaths from ill-defined causes, and adjusted for age and sex using the direct method for three periods: 1979-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2010, Such results were spatially represented in maps. Tables were also constructed showing the mortality rates for each disease and year period. There was a significant reduction in mortality rates across the three disease groups over the the three defined periods in all the county clusters analysed, Despite an initial mortality rate variation among the counties, it was observed a homogenization of such rates at the final period (2000-2010). The drop in CBVD mortality was greater than that in IHD mortality. Mortality due to CVD has steadily decreased in the SRJ in the last three decades. This reduction cannot be explained by greater access to high technology procedures or better control of cardiovascular risk factors as these facts have not occurred or happened in low proportion of cases with the exception of smoking which has decreased significantly. Therefore, it is necessary to seek explanations for this decrease, which may be related to improvements in the socioeconomic conditions of the population.

Gastric cancer mortality trends in Spain, 1976-2005, differences by autonomous region and sex

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of oncologic death worldwide. One of the most noteworthy characteristics of this tumor's epidemiology is the marked decline reported in its incidence and mortality in almost every part of the globe in recent decades. This study sought to describe gastric cancer mortality time trends in Spain's regions for both sexes. Methods Mortality data for the period 1976 through 2005 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th revision (codes 151 and C16, respectively). Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated by geographic area, sex, and five-year period. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to ascertain whether changes in gastric cancer mortality trends had occurred, and to estimate the annual percent change by sex and geographic area. Results Gastric cancer mortality decreased across the study period, with the downward trend being most pronounced in women and in certain regions situated in the interior and north of mainland Spain. Across the study period, there was an overall decrease of 2.90% per annum among men and 3.65% per annum among women. Generally, regions in which the rate of decline was sharpest were those that had initially registered the highest rates. However, the rate of decline was not constant throughout the study period: joinpoint analysis detected a shift in trend for both sexes in the early 1980s. Conclusion Gastric cancer mortality displayed in both sexes a downward trend during the study period, both nationally and regionally. The different trend in rates in the respective geographic areas translated as greater regional homogeneity in gastric cancer mortality by the end of the study period. In contrast, rates in women fell more than did those in men. The increasing differences between the sexes could indicate that some risk factors may be modifying the sex-specific pattern of this tumor. PMID:19785726

Measuring Iran's success in achieving Millennium Development Goal 4: a systematic analysis of under-5 mortality at national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2015.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Younes; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Larijani, Bagher; Sheidaei, Ali; Mansouri, Anita; Kasaeian, Amir; Yazdani, Kamran; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Kazemi, Elaheh; Aghamohamadi, Saeide; Rezaei, Nazila; Chegini, Maryam; Haghshenas, Rosa; Jamshidi, Hamidreza; Delavari, Farnaz; Asadi-Lari, Mohsen; Farzadfar, Farshad

2017-05-01

Child mortality as one of the key Millennium Development Goals (MDG 4-to reduce child mortality by two-thirds from 1990 to 2015), is included in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 3, target 2-to reduce child mortality to fewer than 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths for all countries by 2030), and is a key indicator of the health system in every country. In this study, we aimed to estimate the level and trend of child mortality from 1990 to 2015 in Iran, to assess the progress of the country and its provinces toward these goals. We used three different data sources: three censuses, a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and 5-year data from the death registration system. We used the summary birth history data from four data sources (the three censuses and DHS) and used maternal age cohort and maternal age period methods to estimate the trends in child mortality rates, combining the estimates of these two indirect methods using Loess regression. We also used the complete birth history method to estimate child mortality rate directly from DHS data. Finally, to synthesise different trends into a single trend and calculate uncertainty intervals (UI), we used Gaussian process regression. Under-5 mortality rates (deaths per 1000 livebirths) at the national level in Iran in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 were 63·6 (95% UI 63·1-64·0), 38·8 (38·5-39·2), 24·9 (24·3-25·4), and 19·4 (18·6-20·2), respectively. Between 1990 and 2015, the median annual reduction and total overall reduction in these rates were 4·9% and 70%, respectively. At the provincial level, the difference between the highest and lowest child mortality rates in 1990, 2000, and 2015 were 65·6, 40·4, and 38·1 per 1000 livebirths, respectively. Based on the MDG 4 goal, five provinces had not decreased child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Furthermore, six provinces had not reached SDG 3 (target 2). Iran and most of its provinces achieved MDG 4 and SDG 3 (target 2) goals by 2015. However, at the subnational level in some provinces, there is substantial inequity. Local policy makers should use effective strategies to accelerate the reduction of child mortality for these provinces by 2030. Possible recommendations for such strategies include enhancing the level of education and health literacy among women, tackling sex discrimination, and improving incomes for families. Iran Ministry of Health and Education. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

All-Cause, Cardiovascular, and Cancer Mortality in Western Alaska Native People: Western Alaska Tribal Collaborative for Health (WATCH)

PubMed Central

Metzger, Jesse S.; Koller, Kathryn R.; Jolly, Stacey E.; Asay, Elvin D.; Wang, Hong; Wolfe, Abbie W.; Hopkins, Scarlett E.; Kaufmann, Cristiane; Raymer, Terry W.; Trimble, Brian; Provost, Ellen M.; Ebbesson, Sven O. E.; Austin, Melissa A.; Howard, William James; Umans, Jason G.; Boyer, Bert B.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We determined all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality in western Alaska Native people and examined agreement between death certificate information and adjudicated cause of deaths. Methods. Data from 4 cohort studies were consolidated. Death certificates and medical records were reviewed and adjudicated according to standard criteria. We compared adjudicated CVD and cancer deaths with death certificates by calculating sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and κ statistics. Results. Men (n = 2116) and women (n = 2453), aged 18 to 95 years, were followed an average of 6.7 years. The major cause of death in men was trauma (25%), followed by CVD (19%) and cancer (13%). The major cause of death in women was CVD (24%), followed by cancer (19%) and trauma (8%). Stroke rates in both genders were higher than those of US Whites. Only 56% of deaths classified as CVD by death certificate were classified as CVD by standard criteria; discordance was higher among men (55%) than women (32%; κs = 0.4 and 0.7). Conclusions. We found lower rates for coronary heart disease death but high rates of stroke mortality. Death certificates overestimated CVD mortality; concordance between the 2 methods is better for cancer mortality. The results point to the importance of cohort studies in this population in providing data to assist in health care planning. PMID:24754623

The value of customised centiles in assessing perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size.

PubMed

Gardosi, J; Clausson, B; Francis, A

2009-09-01

We wanted to compare customised and population standards for defining smallness for gestational age (SGA) in the assessment of perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size. Population-based cohort study. Sweden. Swedish Birth Registry database 1992-1995 with 354 205 complete records. Coefficients were derived and applied to determine SGA by the fully customised method, or by adjustment for fetal sex only, and using the same fetal weight standard. Perinatal deaths and rates of small for gestational age (SGA) babies within subgroups stratified by parity, body mass index (BMI) and maternal size within the BMI range of 20.0-24.9. Perinatal mortality rates (PMR) had a U-shaped distribution in parity groups, increased proportionately with maternal BMI, and had no association with maternal size within the normal BMI range. For each of these subgroups, SGA rates determined by the customised method showed strong association with the PMR. In contrast, SGA based on uncustomised, population-based centiles had poor correlation with perinatal mortality. The increased perinatal mortality risk in pregnancies of obese mothers was associated with an increased risk of SGA using customised centiles, and a decreased risk of SGA using population-based centiles. The use of customised centiles to determine SGA improves the identification of pregnancies which are at increased risk of perinatal death.

Ischaemic heart disease mortality in Serbia, 1991-2013; a joinpoint analysis

PubMed Central

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) has been one of the leading causes of mortality in the world. In many European countries the mortality rates due to IHD have been rising rapidly. This study was aimed to assess the IHD mortality trend in Serbia. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study analyzing IHD mortality in Serbia in the period 1991-2013 was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the European standard population. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95 per cent confidence interval (CI). Results: More than 253,000 people (143,420 men and 110,276 women) died due to IHD in Serbia during the observed period, and most of them (over 160,000 people) were patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Average annual ASR for IHD was 113.6/100,000. There was no overall significant trend for mortality due to IHD (AAPC=+0.1%, 95% CI −0.8-1.0), but there was one joinpoint: the trend significantly increased by +2.3 per cent per year from 1991 to 2006 and then significantly decreased by −6.4 per cent from 2006 to onwards. Significantly decreased mortality trends for MI in both genders were observed: according to the comparability test, mortality trends in men and women were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P=0.0567). Interpretation & conclusions: No significant trend for mortality due to IHD was observed in Serbia during the study period. The substantial decline of mortality from IHD seen in most developed countries during the past decades was not observed in Serbia. Further efforts are required to reduce mortality from IHD in Serbian population. PMID:29664033

Expected years of life lost through road traffic injuries in Mexico

PubMed Central

Murillo-Zamora, Efrén; Mendoza-Cano, Oliver; Trujillo-Hernández, Benjamín; Guzmán-Esquivel, José; Medina-González, Alfredo; Huerta, Miguel; Sánchez-Piña, Ramón Alberto; Lugo-Radillo, Agustin

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a leading cause of premature mortality, mainly in low- and middle-income countries Objective: To estimate the 2014 burden of RTIs in Mexico calculating years of life lost (YLL) and age-standardized YLL rates (ASYLL), and to evaluate sex, age, and region-related differences in premature mortality. Methods: Mortality data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography and 14,637 deaths of individuals 15 years of age and older were analyzed. The YLL and ASYLL were computed. Results: The overall burden of RTIs was 332,922 YLL and 82.4% of the deaths occurred in males. Males from 25 to 34 years of age and females from 15 to 24 years of age showed the highest age-adjusted YLL rates (933 and 158 YLL per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively). The national ASYLL rate was 416 per 100,000 inhabitants and the highest state-stratified mortality rates were observed in Tabasco (851), Sinaloa (709), Durango (656), Zacatecas (642), and Baja California Sur (570). Conclusions: RTIs contributed to the premature mortality rate in the study population. Our findings may be useful from a health policy perspective for designing and prioritizing interventions focused on the prevention of premature loss of life. PMID:28820342

Decrease in mortality rate and hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction after the enactment of the smoking ban law in São Paulo city, Brazil.

PubMed

Abe, Tania M O; Scholz, Jaqueline; de Masi, Eduardo; Nobre, Moacyr R C; Filho, Roberto Kalil

2017-11-01

Smoking restriction laws have spread worldwide during the last decade. Previous studies have shown a decline in the community rates of myocardial infarction after enactment of these laws. However, data are scarce about the Latin American population. In the first phase of this study, we reported the successful implementation of the law in São Paulo city, with a decrease in carbon monoxide rates in hospitality venues. To evaluate whether the 2009 implementation of a comprehensive smoking ban law in São Paulo city was associated with a reduction in rates of mortality and hospital admissions for myocardial infarction. We performed a time-series study of monthly rates of mortality and hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction from January 2005 to December 2010. The data were derived from DATASUS, the primary public health information system available in Brazil and from Mortality Information System (SIM). Adjustments and analyses were performed using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) method modelled by environmental variables and atmospheric pollutants to evaluate the effect of smoking ban law in mortality and hospital admission rate. We also used Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) to make a comparison between the period pre and post smoking ban law. We observed a reduction in mortality rate (-11.9% in the first 17 months after the law) and in hospital admission rate (-5.4% in the first 3 months after the law) for myocardial infarction after the implementation of the smoking ban law. Hospital admissions and mortality rate for myocardial infarction were reduced in the first months after the comprehensive smoking ban law was implemented. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2014

PubMed Central

Chen, Wanqing; Sun, Kexin; Zheng, Rongshou; Zeng, Hongmei; Zhang, Siwei; Xia, Changfa; Yang, Zhixun; Li, He; Zou, Xiaonong; He, Jie

2018-01-01

Background National Central Cancer Registry of China (NCCRC) updated nationwide cancer statistics using population-based cancer registry data in 2014 collected from all available cancer registries. Methods In 2017, 449 cancer registries submitted cancer registry data in 2014, among which 339 registries’ data met the criteria of quality control and were included in analysis. These cancer registries covered 288,243,347 population, accounting for about 21.07% of the national population in 2014. Numbers of nationwide new cancer cases and deaths were estimated using calculated incidence and mortality rates and corresponding national population stratified by area, sex, age group and cancer type. The world Segi’s population was applied for age-standardized rates. Results A total of 3,804,000 new cancer cases were diagnosed, the crude incidence rate was 278.07/100,000 (301.67/100,000 in males, 253.29/100,000 in females) and the age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population (ASIRW) was 186.53/100,000. Calculated age-standardized incidence rate was higher in urban areas than in rural areas (191.6/100,000 vs. 179.2/100,000). South China had the highest cancer incidence rate while Southwest China had the lowest incidence rate. Cancer incidence rate was higher in female for population between 20 to 54 years but was higher in male for population younger than 20 years or over 54 years. A total of 2,296,000 cancer deaths were reported, the crude mortality rate was 167.89/100,000 (207.24/100,000 in males, 126.54/100,000 in females) and the age-standardized mortality rate by world standard population (ASMRW) was 106.09/100,000. Calculated age-standardized mortality rate was higher in rural areas than in urban areas (110.3/100,000 vs. 102.5/100,000). East China had the highest cancer mortality rate while North China had the lowest mortality rate. The mortality rate in male was higher than that in female. Common cancer types and major causes of cancer death differed between age group and sex. Conclusions Heavy cancer burden and its disparities between area, sex and age group pose a major challenge to public health in China. Nationwide cancer registry plays a crucial role in cancer prevention and control. PMID:29545714

Surgical volume and postoperative mortality rate at a referral hospital in Western Uganda: Measuring the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery indicators in low-resource settings.

PubMed

Anderson, Geoffrey A; Ilcisin, Lenka; Abesiga, Lenard; Mayanja, Ronald; Portal Benetiz, Noralis; Ngonzi, Joseph; Kayima, Peter; Shrime, Mark G

2017-06-01

The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends that every country report its surgical volume and postoperative mortality rate. Little is known, however, about the numbers of operations performed and the associated postoperative mortality rate in low-income countries or how to best collect these data. For one month, every patient who underwent an operation at a referral hospital in western Uganda was observed. These patients and their outcomes were followed until discharge. Prospective data were compared with data obtained from logbooks and patient charts to determine the validity of using retrospective methods for collecting these metrics. Surgical volume at this regional hospital in Uganda is 8,515 operations/y, compared to 4,000 operations/y reported in the only other published data. The postoperative mortality rate at this hospital is 2.4%, similar to other hospitals in low-income countries. Finding patient files in the medical records department was time consuming and yielded only 62% of the files. Furthermore, a comparison of missing versus found charts revealed that the missing charts were significantly different from the found charts. Logbooks, on the other hand, captured 99% of the operations and 94% of the deaths. Our results describe a simple, reproducible, accurate, and inexpensive method for collection of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery variables using logbooks that already exist in most hospitals in low-income countries. While some have suggested using risk-adjusted postoperative mortality rate as a more equitable variable, our data suggest that only a limited amount of risk adjustment is possible given the limited available data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The growth and exploitation rate of yellowstripe scad (selaroides leptolepis cuvier, 1833) in the Malacca Strait, Medan Belawan Subdistrict, North Sumatera Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tambun, J.; Bakti, D.; Desrita

2018-02-01

Yellowstripe scad included the one of commodity that has an important economic value in the Malacca Strait. Fish were found mostly in Indonesian of waters made this fish as one of the main target catch. But, it can had negative impact on the population of the fish. The study is done at Belawan Waters on March until May 2017 that which is purposed to study about the frequency distribution of length, determine the parameters of growth and, determine mortality rate and the rate of exploitation in order to provide appropriate management model for the fish resource. Yellowstripe scad was observed around 360 samples with the length range between 110 - 175 mm. The fish separated by bhattacarya method used the aid software FISAT II. A pattern of growth Yellowstripe scad alometrik negative with growth coefisien (K) 1.1 with length asimtotic (L∞) 181.65. The rate of mortality total ( Z) yellowstripe scad 4.34 per year at the rate of mortality natural ( M ) 1.204 per year and rate mortality by fishing (F) 3.136 per year in order to obtain the rate of exploitation 0.722. The value of this exploitation rate has exceeded the value of the optimum exploitation of 0.5.

Iraq War mortality estimates: a systematic review.

PubMed

Tapp, Christine; Burkle, Frederick M; Wilson, Kumanan; Takaro, Tim; Guyatt, Gordon H; Amad, Hani; Mills, Edward J

2008-03-07

In March 2003, the United States invaded Iraq. The subsequent number, rates, and causes of mortality in Iraq resulting from the war remain unclear, despite intense international attention. Understanding mortality estimates from modern warfare, where the majority of casualties are civilian, is of critical importance for public health and protection afforded under international humanitarian law. We aimed to review the studies, reports and counts on Iraqi deaths since the start of the war and assessed their methodological quality and results. We performed a systematic search of 15 electronic databases from inception to January 2008. In addition, we conducted a non-structured search of 3 other databases, reviewed study reference lists and contacted subject matter experts. We included studies that provided estimates of Iraqi deaths based on primary research over a reported period of time since the invasion. We excluded studies that summarized mortality estimates and combined non-fatal injuries and also studies of specific sub-populations, e.g. under-5 mortality. We calculated crude and cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence and average deaths per day for each study, where not already provided. Thirteen studies met the eligibility criteria. The studies used a wide range of methodologies, varying from sentinel-data collection to population-based surveys. Studies assessed as the highest quality, those using population-based methods, yielded the highest estimates. Average deaths per day ranged from 48 to 759. The cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence ranged from 0.64 to 10.25 per 1,000 per year. Our review indicates that, despite varying estimates, the mortality burden of the war and its sequelae on Iraq is large. The use of established epidemiological methods is rare. This review illustrates the pressing need to promote sound epidemiologic approaches to determining mortality estimates and to establish guidelines for policy-makers, the media and the public on how to interpret these estimates.

Distribution of chronic disease mortality and deterioration in household socioeconomic status in rural Bangladesh: an analysis over a 24-year period

PubMed Central

Khan, Jahangir AM; Trujillo, Antonio J; Ahmed, Sayem; Siddiquee, Ali Tanweer; Alam, Nurul; Mirelman, Andrew J; Koehlmoos, Tracey Perez; Niessen, Louis Wilhelmus; Peters, David H

2015-01-01

Background: Little is known about long-term changes linking chronic diseases and poverty in low-income countries such as Bangladesh. This study examines how chronic disease mortality rates change across socioeconomic groups over time in Bangladesh, and whether such mortality is associated with households falling into poverty. Methods: Age-sex standardized chronic diseases mortality rates were estimated across socioeconomic groups in 1982, 1996 and 2005, using data from the health and demographic surveillance system in Matlab, Bangladesh. Changes in households falling below a poverty threshold after a chronic disease death were estimated between 1982–96 and 1996–2005. Results: Age-sex standardized chronic disease mortality rates rose from 646 per 100 000 population in 1982 to 670 in 2005. Mortality rates were higher in wealthier compared with poorer households in 1982 [Concentration Index = 0.037; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.002, 0.072], but switched direction in 1996 (Concentration Index = −0.007; 95% CI: −0.023, 0.009), with an even higher concentration in the poor by 2005 (Concentration Index = −0.047; 95% CI: −0.061, −0.033). Between 1982–96 and 1996–2005, the highest chronic disease mortality rates were found among those households that fell below the poverty line. Households that had a chronic disease death in 1982 were 1.33 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.70) times more likely to fall below the poverty line in 1996 compared with households that did not. Conclusions: Chronic disease mortality is a growing proportion of the disease burden in Bangladesh, with poorer households being more affected over time periods, leading to future household poverty. PMID:26467760

Breast cancer mortality and associated factors in São Paulo State, Brazil: an ecological analysis.

PubMed

Diniz, Carmen Simone Grilo; Pellini, Alessandra Cristina Guedes; Ribeiro, Adeylson Guimarães; Tedardi, Marcello Vannucci; Miranda, Marina Jorge de; Touso, Michelle Mosna; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; Santos, Patrícia Carlos Dos; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco

2017-08-23

Identify the factors associated with the age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate in the municipalities of State of São Paulo (SSP), Brazil, in the period from 2006 to 2012. Ecological study of the breast cancer mortality rate standardised by age, as the dependent variable, having each of the 645 municipalities in the SSP as the unit of analysis. The female resident population aged 15 years or older, by age group and municipality, in 2009 (mid-term), obtained from public dataset (Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). Women 15 years or older who died of breast cancer in the SSP were selected for the calculation of the breast cancer mortality rate, according to the municipality and age group, from 2006 to 2012. Mortality rates for each municipality calculated by the direct standardisation method, using the age structure of the population of SSP in 2009 as the standard. In the final linear regression model, breast cancer mortality, in the municipal level, was directly associated with rates of nulliparity (p<0.0001), mammography (p<0.0001) and private healthcare (p=0.006). The findings that mammography ratio was associated, in the municipal level, with increased mortality add to the evidence of a probable overestimation of benefits and underestimation of risks associated with this form of screening. The same paradoxical trend of increased mortality with screening was found in recent individual-level studies, indicating the need to expand informed choice for patients, primary prevention actions and individualised screening. Additional studies should be conducted to explore if there is a causality link in this association. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Breast cancer mortality and associated factors in São Paulo State, Brazil: an ecological analysis

PubMed Central

Diniz, Carmen Simone Grilo; Pellini, Alessandra Cristina Guedes; Ribeiro, Adeylson Guimarães; Tedardi, Marcello Vannucci; de Miranda, Marina Jorge; Touso, Michelle Mosna; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; dos Santos, Patrícia Carlos

2017-01-01

Objective Identify the factors associated with the age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate in the municipalities of State of São Paulo (SSP), Brazil, in the period from 2006 to 2012. Design Ecological study of the breast cancer mortality rate standardised by age, as the dependent variable, having each of the 645 municipalities in the SSP as the unit of analysis. Settings The female resident population aged 15 years or older, by age group and municipality, in 2009 (mid-term), obtained from public dataset (Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). Participants Women 15 years or older who died of breast cancer in the SSP were selected for the calculation of the breast cancer mortality rate, according to the municipality and age group, from 2006 to 2012. Main outcome measures Mortality rates for each municipality calculated by the direct standardisation method, using the age structure of the population of SSP in 2009 as the standard. Results In the final linear regression model, breast cancer mortality, in the municipal level, was directly associated with rates of nulliparity (p<0.0001), mammography (p<0.0001) and private healthcare (p=0.006). Conclusions The findings that mammography ratio was associated, in the municipal level, with increased mortality add to the evidence of a probable overestimation of benefits and underestimation of risks associated with this form of screening. The same paradoxical trend of increased mortality with screening was found in recent individual-level studies, indicating the need to expand informed choice for patients, primary prevention actions and individualised screening. Additional studies should be conducted to explore if there is a causality link in this association. PMID:28838894

Estimating life expectancies for US small areas: a regression framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Peter

2014-01-01

Analysis of area mortality variations and estimation of area life tables raise methodological questions relevant to assessing spatial clustering, and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Existing small area analyses of US life expectancy variation generally adopt ad hoc amalgamations of counties to alleviate potential instability of mortality rates involved in deriving life tables, and use conventional life table analysis which takes no account of correlated mortality for adjacent areas or ages. The alternative strategy here uses structured random effects methods that recognize correlations between adjacent ages and areas, and allows retention of the original county boundaries. This strategy generalizes to include effects of area category (e.g. poverty status, ethnic mix), allowing estimation of life tables according to area category, and providing additional stabilization of estimated life table functions. This approach is used here to estimate stabilized mortality rates, derive life expectancies in US counties, and assess trends in clustering and in inequality according to county poverty category.

Prognostic capacity of a clinically indicated exercise test for cardiovascular mortality is enhanced by combined analysis of exercise capacity, heart rate recovery and T-wave alternans.

PubMed

Minkkinen, Mikko; Nieminen, Tuomo; Verrier, Richard L; Leino, Johanna; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viik, Jari; Lehtinen, Rami; Nikus, Kjell; Kööbi, Tiit; Turjanmaa, Väinö; Kähönen, Mika

2015-09-01

Exercise capacity, heart rate recovery and T-wave alternans are independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. We tested whether these parameters contain supplementary prognostic information. A total of 3609 consecutive patients (2157 men) referred for a routine, clinically indicated bicycle exercise test were enrolled in the Finnish Cardiovascular Study (FINCAVAS). Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents, heart rate recovery as the decrease in heart rate from maximum to one minute post-exercise, and T-wave alternans by time-domain Modified Moving Average method. During 57-month median follow-up (interquartile range 35-78 months), 96 patients died of cardiovascular causes (primary endpoint) and 233 from any cause. All three parameters were independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality when analysed as continuous variables. Adding metabolic equivalents (p < 0.001), heart rate recovery (p = 0.002) or T-wave alternans (p = 0.01) to the linear model improved its predictive power for cardiovascular mortality. The combination of low exercise capacity (<6 metabolic equivalents), reduced heart rate recovery (≤12 beats/min) and elevated T-wave alternans (≥60 μV) yielded the highest hazard ratio for cardiovascular mortality of 16.5 (95% confidence interval 4.0-67.7, p < 0.001). Harrell's C index was 0.719 (confidence interval 0.665-0.772) for cardiovascular mortality with previously defined cutpoints (<8 units for metabolic equivalents, ≤18 beats/min for heart rate recovery and ≥60 μV for T-wave alternans). The prognostic capacity of the clinical exercise test is enhanced by combined analysis of exercise capacity, heart rate recovery and T-wave alternans. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

[Analysis of Incidence and Mortality of Thyroid Cancer in China, 2013].

PubMed

Yang, L; Zheng, R S; Wang, N; Zeng, H M; Yuan, Y N; Zhang, S W; Li, H C; Liu, S; Chen, W Q; He, J

2017-11-23

Objective: To evaluate the incidence and mortality status of thyroid cancer in China, 2013. Methods: Incidence and mortality data of thyroid cancer were derived from 255 population-based cancer registries in China. Age-specific and age standardized incidence and mortality rates of thyroid cancer in different areas (urban and rural) with different gender were calculated based on the stratification of area (urban and rural), gender, age and tumor position. Chinese census in 2000 and the world Segi's population were used for age-standardized incidence/mortality rates. The incident cases and deaths were estimated using age-specific rates and national population data in 2013. Results: The estimates of new cancer incident cases and deaths were 143.9 thousand and 6 500, respectively. The crude incidence rate was 10.58/100 000 (Male 5.12/100 000, Female 16.32/100 000). Age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC, 2000) and by world standard population (ASIRW) were 8.82/100 000 and 7.67/100 000, respectively. Male to female ratio was 1∶3.2. The crude incidence rate in urban and rural areas were 15.03/100 000 and 5.41/100 000, respectively. After adjustment by China standard population, the rate in urban areas was 2.57 times higher than that of rural areas. The crude mortality rate of thyroid cancer was 0.48/100 000 (Male 0.33/100 000, Female 0.63/100 000). Age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC, 2000) and by world standard population (ASIRW) were 0.33/100 000 and 0.32/100 000, respectively. The crude mortality rate in urban and rural areas were 0.57/100 000 and 0.38/100 000, respectively. After adjustment by China standard population, the rate in urban areas was 1.41 times higher than that of rural areas. The cumulative incidence and mortality rates (0-74 years old) were 0.74% and 0.03%, respectively. According to the data from 255 cancer registries, papillary carcinoma is the main pathology type, which accounted for 89.9% of all malignant tumors. Conclusions: The disease burden of thyroid cancer in urban areas is higher than that in rural areas. Females have the higher incidence rate than that of males. The reasons related to the higher incidence rate of thyroid cancer should be further investigated to provide evidence for appropriate cancer control strategies and policies to be made in China.

SEPARABLE FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS TO MORTALITY DATA

PubMed Central

Fosdick, Bailey K.; Hoff, Peter D.

2014-01-01

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume an independent error distribution or an error model that allows for dependence along at most one or two dimensions of the data array. However, failing to account for other dependencies can lead to inefficient estimates of regression parameters, inaccurate standard errors and poor predictions. An alternative to assuming independent errors is to allow for dependence along each dimension of the array using a separable covariance model. However, the number of parameters in this model increases rapidly with the dimensions of the array and, for many arrays, maximum likelihood estimates of the covariance parameters do not exist. In this paper, we propose a submodel of the separable covariance model that estimates the covariance matrix for each dimension as having factor analytic structure. This model can be viewed as an extension of factor analysis to array-valued data, as it uses a factor model to estimate the covariance along each dimension of the array. We discuss properties of this model as they relate to ordinary factor analysis, describe maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods, and provide a likelihood ratio testing procedure for selecting the factor model ranks. We apply this methodology to the analysis of data from the Human Mortality Database, and show in a cross-validation experiment how it outperforms simpler methods. Additionally, we use this model to impute mortality rates for countries that have no mortality data for several years. Unlike other approaches, our methodology is able to estimate similarities between the mortality rates of countries, time periods and sexes, and use this information to assist with the imputations. PMID:25489353

Comparison of an Ampelisca abdita growth rate test with other standard amphipod sediment toxicity tests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schafer, K.; Weston, D.P.

1995-12-31

Amphipod crustaceans are often used to measure the toxicity of bulk sediments. Acute lethal bioassays are commonly employed, but this study investigated the potential for using a chronic growth bioassay with Ampelisca abdita. A potential advantage of this method is that the growth rate could be a more sensitive measure of contamination than mortality. Growth rates for A. abdita in sediments spiked with cadmium and crude oil were compared to mortality rates in A. abdita, Eohaustorius estuaries, and Rhepoxynius abronius in sediments with the same concentrations of contaminants. A. abdita was more sensitive to cadmium than the other two species.more » For crude oil, there was a significant shift in size distribution from the control even at concentrations as low as 150 mg/kg of oil. The standard acute lethal tests for all species, on the other hand, did not show significant mortality until at least 1,600 mg/kg. The results confirm that growth rates are a more sensitive indicator of toxicity, and to at least the three contaminants tested, A. abdita is as sensitive as E. estuarius and R. abronius. This study also confirmed the reported high mortality rates of E. estuaries in San Francisco Bay sediments. The causes of this high mortality are unknown but give further reason for using A. abdita for toxicity tests in this region.« less

Tuberculosis mortality trends in cuba, 1998 to 2007.

PubMed

González, Edilberto; Risco, Grisel E; Borroto, Susana; Perna, Abel; Armas, Luisa

2009-01-01

Introduction Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of illness and death throughout the world. The World Health Organization's Global Plan to Stop TB 2006-2015 proposes that countries cut TB mortality by half compared to 1990 rates. In Cuba, TB mortality declined steadily throughout the 20th century, particularly after 1960. Objective Describe TB mortality distribution and trends in Cuba from January 1998 to December 2007 by infection site, sex, age and province, and determine progress towards the WHO's 2015 target for TB mortality reduction. Methods A time series ecological study was conducted. Death certificates stating TB as cause of death were obtained from the Ministry of Public Health's National Statistics Division, and population data by age group, sex, and province were obtained from the National Statistics Bureau. Crude and specific death rate trends and variation were analyzed. Results TB mortality declined from 0.4 per 100,000 population in 1998 to 0.2 (under half the 1990 rate) in 2007. Clinical forms of the disease, both pulmonary and extrapulmonary, also declined. The highest mortality rates were found in males and in the group aged ≥ 65 years. Rates were also highest in the capital, Havana, with extreme values of 0.73 and 0.39 per 100,000 population at the beginning and end of the period, respectively. Conclusions Deaths from TB declined steadily compared to total deaths and deaths caused by infectious diseases. The Global Plan to Stop TB target was met well ahead of 2015. If this trend continues, TB is likely to become an exceptional cause of death in Cuba.

Racial Difference in Sarcoidosis Mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Machado, Roberto F.; Schraufnagel, Dean; Sweiss, Nadera J.; Baughman, Robert P.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: The clinical presentation and outcome of sarcoidosis varies by race. However, the race difference in mortality outcome remains largely unknown. METHODS: We studied mortality related to sarcoidosis from 1999 through 2010 by examining data on multiple causes of death from the National Center for Health Statistics. We compared the comorbid conditions between sarcoidosis-related deaths with deaths caused by car accidents (previously healthy control subjects) and rheumatoid arthritis (chronic disease control subjects) in both African Americans and Caucasians. RESULTS: From 1999 through 2010, sarcoidosis was reported as an immediate cause of death in 10,348 people in the United States with a combined overall mean age-adjusted mortality rate of 2.8 per 1 million person-years. Of these, 6,285 were African American and 3,984 Caucasian. The age-adjusted mortality rate for African Americans was 12 times higher than for Caucasians. African Americans died at an earlier age than Caucasians. African Americans living in the District of Columbia and North Carolina and Caucasians living in Vermont had higher mortality rates. Although the total sarcoidosis age-adjusted mortality rate had not changed over the 12 year period studied, this rate increased for Caucasians (R = 0.747, P = .005) but not for African Americans. Compared with the control groups, pulmonary hypertension was significantly more common in individuals with sarcoidosis. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide population-based study exposes a significant difference in ethnicity and sex among people dying of sarcoidosis in the United States. Pulmonary hypertension investigation should be considered in all patients with sarcoidosis, especially African Americans. PMID:25188873

Infant Mortality and Income in 4 World Cities: New York, London, Paris, and Tokyo

PubMed Central

Rodwin, Victor G.; Neuberg, Leland G.

2005-01-01

Objectives. We investigated the association between average income or deprivation and infant mortality rate across neighborhoods of 4 world cities. Methods. Using a maximum likelihood negative binomial regression model that controls for births, we analyzed data for 1988–1992 and 1993–1997. Results. In Manhattan, for both periods, we found an association (.05% significance level) between income and infant mortality. In Tokyo, for both periods, and in Paris and London for period 1, we found none (5% significance level). For period 2, the association just missed statistical significance for Paris, whereas for London it was significant (5% level). Conclusions. In stark contrast to Tokyo, Paris, and London, the association of income and infant mortality rate was strongly evident in Manhattan. PMID:15623865

Has NHS reorganisation saved lives? A CuSum study using 65 years of data

PubMed Central

Lale, Alice S

2016-01-01

Objectives To determine if NHS reforms affect population mortality. Design Retrospective study using routinely published data. Setting & participants Resident population of England and Wales 1948 to 2012 Main outcome measure All cause age sex directly standardised mortality England and Wales 1948 to 2012. Methods Using the CuSum technique and Change-Point Analysis to identify sustained changes in the improving age-standardised mortality rates for the period 1948-2012, and comparing the time of these changes with periods of NHS reform. Where observed changes did not fit with NHS reform, changes external to the NHS were sought as a possible explanation of changes observed. Results CuSum plotting and CPA showed no significant changes in female mortality trend between 1948 and 2012. However, this analysis identified a sustained improvement in the male mortality trend, occurring in the mid-1970s. A further change in the rate of male mortality decline was found around the Millennium. Conclusion The 1974 NHS reorganisation, changing service arrangements predominantly for women and children, is considered an unlikely explanation of the improved rate of male mortality decline. Thus, centrally led NHS reorganisation has never had any detectable effect on either male or female mortality and must be considered ineffective for this purpose. But some evidence supporting the view that increased funding improves outcomes is found. PMID:26432817

Trends and spatial distribution of deaths of children aged 12-60 months in São Paulo, Brazil, 1980-98.

PubMed Central

Antunes, José Leopoldo Ferreira; Waldman, Eliseu Alves

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in the mortality of children aged 12-60 months and to perform spatial data analysis of its distribution at the inner city district level in São Paulo from 1980 to 1998. METHODS: Official mortality data were analysed in relation to the underlying causes of death. The population of children aged 12-60 months, disaggregated by sex and age, was estimated for each year. Educational levels, income, employment status, and other socioeconomic indices were also assessed. Statistical Package for Social Sciences software was used for the statistical processing of time series. The Cochrane-Orcutt procedure of generalized least squares regression analysis was used to estimate the regression parameters with control of first-order autocorrelation. Spatial data analysis employed the discrimination of death rates and socioeconomic indices at the inner city district level. For classifying area-level death rates the method of K-means cluster analysis was used. Spatial correlation between variables was analysed by the simultaneous autoregressive regression method. FINDINGS: There was a steady decline in death rates during the 1980s at an average rate of 3.08% per year, followed by a levelling off. Infectious diseases remained the major cause of mortality, accounting for 43.1% of deaths during the last three years of the study. Injuries accounted for 16.5% of deaths. Mortality rates at the area level clearly demonstrated inequity in the city's health profile: there was an increasing difference between the rich and the underprivileged social strata in this respect. CONCLUSION: The overall mortality rate among children aged 12-60 months dropped by almost 30% during the study period. Most of the decline happened during the 1980s. Many people still live in a state of deprivation in underserved areas. Time-series and spatial data analysis provided indications of potential value in the planning of social policies promoting well-being, through the identification of factors affecting child survival and the regions with the worst health profiles, to which programmes and resources should be preferentially directed. PMID:12077615

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File

PubMed Central

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.

2011-01-01

Accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group. However, estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: (1) The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality (heterogeneity effect); (2) standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages and (3) ages of very old people may be exaggerated. One way of obtaining estimates of mortality at extreme ages is to pool together international records of persons surviving to extreme ages with subsequent efforts of strict age validation. This approach helps researchers to resolve the third of the above-mentioned problems but does not resolve the first two problems because of inevitable data heterogeneity when data for people belonging to different birth cohorts and countries are pooled together. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow (monthly) age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation are elaborated. This approach is based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File (DMF). Some birth cohorts covered by DMF could be studied by the method of extinct generations. Availability of month of birth and month of death information provides a unique opportunity to obtain hazard rate estimates for every month of age. Study of several single-year extinct birth cohorts shows that mortality trajectory at advanced ages follows the Gompertz law up to the ages 102–105 years without a noticeable deceleration. Earlier reports of mortality deceleration (deviation of mortality from the Gompertz law) at ages below 100 appear to be artifacts of mixing together several birth cohorts with different mortality levels and using cross-sectional instead of cohort data. Age exaggeration and crude assumptions applied to mortality estimates at advanced ages may also contribute to mortality underestimation at very advanced ages. PMID:22308064

Premature Mortality in Slovenia in Relation to Selected Biological, Socioeconomic, and Geographical Determinants

PubMed Central

Artnik, Barbara; Vidmar, Gaj; Javornik, Jana; Laaser, Ulrich

2006-01-01

Aim To determine biological (sex and age), socioeconomic (marital status, education, and mother tongue) and geographical (region) factors connected with causes of death and lifespan (age at death, years-of-potential-life-lost, and mortality rate) in Slovenia in the 1990s. Methods In this population-based cross-sectional study, we analyzed all deaths in the 25-64 age group (N = 14 816) in Slovenia in 1992, 1995, and 1998. Causes of death, classified into groups according to the 10th revision of International Classification of Diseases, were linked to the data on the deceased from the 1991 Census. Stratified contingency-table analyses were performed. Years-of-potential-life-lost (YPLL) were calculated on the basis of population life-tables stratified by region and linearly modeled by the characteristics of the deceased. Poisson regression was applied to test the differences in mortality rate. Results Across all socioeconomic strata, men died at younger age than women (index of excess mortality in men exceeded 200 for all studied years) and from different prevailing causes (injuries in men aged <45 years; neoplasms in women aged >35 years). For men, higher education was associated with fewer deaths from digestive and respiratory system diseases. The least educated women died relatively often from circulatory diseases, but rarely from neoplasms. Single people died from neoplasms less often. Marriage in comparison with divorce reduced the mortality rate by 1.9-fold in both men and women (P<0.001). Mortality rate in both men and women decreased with increasing education level (P<0.001). Mortality rate of ethnic Slovenians was half the mortality rate of ethnic minority members and immigrants (P<0.001). Analysis of YPLL revealed limited and nonlinear impact of education level on premature mortality. The share of neoplasms was the highest in the cluster of socioeconomically prosperous regions, whereas the share of circulatory diseases was increased in poorer regions. Significant differences were found between individual regions in age at death and mortality rate, and the differences decreased over the studied period. Conclusion These data may aid in understanding the nature, prevalence and consequences of mortality as related to socioeconomic inequalities, and thus serve as a basis for setting health and social policy goals and planning health measures. PMID:16489703

Rate of Contrast Extravasation on CT Angiography Predicts Hematoma Expansion and Mortality in Primary Intracerebral Hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Brouwers, H. Bart; Battey, Thomas W.K.; Musial, Hayley H.; Ciura, Viesha A.; Falcone, Guido J.; Ayres, Alison M.; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin; Viswanathan, Anand; Anderson, Christopher D.; Greenberg, Steven M.; Pomerantz, Stuart R.; Ortiz, Claudia J.; Goldstein, Joshua N.; Gonzalez, R. Gilberto; Rosand, Jonathan; Romero, Javier M.

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose In primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), the presence of contrast extravasation following CT angiography (CTA), termed the ‘spot sign’, predicts hematoma expansion and mortality. Since the biological underpinnings of the spot sign are not fully understood, we investigated whether the rate of contrast extravasation - which may reflect the rate of bleeding - predicts expansion and mortality beyond the simple presence of the spot sign. Methods Consecutive ICH patients with first-pass CTA followed by a 90-second delayed post-contrast CT (delayed CTA) were included. CTAs were reviewed for spot sign presence by two blinded readers. Spot sign volumes on first-pass and delayed CTA and ICH volumes were measured using semi-automated software. Extravasation rates were calculated and tested for association with hematoma expansion and mortality using uni- and multivariable logistic regression. Results 162 patients were included, 48 (30%) of whom had ≥1 spot sign. Median spot sign volume was 0.04mL on first-pass CTA and 0.4mL on delayed CTA. Median extravasation rate was 0.23mL/min overall, and 0.30mL/min among expanders versus 0.07mL/min in non-expanders. Extravasation rates were also significantly higher in patients who died in hospital: 0.27mL/min versus 0.04mL/min. In multivariable analysis, the extravasation rate was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (OR1.09 [95%CI 1.04–1.18], p=0.004), 90-day mortality (OR1.15 [95%CI 1.08–1.27], p=0.0004), and hematoma expansion (OR1.03 [95%CI 1.01–1.08], p=0.047). Conclusions Contrast extravasation rate, or spot sign growth, further refines the ability to predict hematoma expansion and mortality. Our results support the hypothesis that the spot sign directly measures active bleeding in acute ICH. PMID:26243220

The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer and its relationship with development in Asia

PubMed Central

Pakzad, Reza; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Ghoncheh, Mahshid; Pakzad, Iraj; Salehiniya, Hamid

2015-01-01

Purpose Prostate cancer is a common cancer in men in the world. It is rapidly increasing. This study investigated the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer and the relationship with the Human Development Index (HDI) and its dimensions in Asia in 2012. Methods The study was conducted based on data from the world data of cancer and the World Bank (including the HDI and its components). The standardized incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer were calculated for Asian countries. The correlation between incidence, mortality rates, and the HDI and its components were assessed with the use of the correlation test, using SPSS software. Results There was a total of 191,054 incidences and 81,229 death were recorded in Asian countries in 2012. Among the Asian countries, the five countries with the highest standardized incidence rates of prostate cancer were Israel, Turkey, Lebanon, Singapore, and Japan, and the five countries with the highest standardized mortality rates were Turkey, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, Armenia, and the Philippines. The correlation between standardized incidence rate of prostate cancer and the HDI was 0.604 (P ≤ 0.001), with life expectancy at birth 0.529 (P = 0.002), with mean years of schooling 0.427 (P = 0.001), and with level of income per each person of the population 0.349 (P = 0.013). Also, between the standardized mortality rate and the HDI, it was 0.228 (P = 0.127). Conclusions A significant and positive correlation was observed between the standardized incidence rate of prostate cancer, and the HDI and its dimensions, such as life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, and income level of the population per each person of population. However, there was no significant correlation between the standardized mortality rate, and the HDI and its dimensions. PMID:26779461

Mortality from accidents, disease, suicide and homicide in the British fishing industry from 1900 to 2010.

PubMed

Roberts, Stephen E; Carter, Tim

2015-01-01

To establish the causes of mortality in the British fishing industry from 1900 up to 2010, to investigate long term trends in mortality and to identify causal factors in the mortality patterns and rates. A longitudinal study, based on examinations of official death inquiry files, marine accident investigation files and reports, death registers and annual death returns. Mortality rates from accidents while working at sea remain high in the British fishing industry. Over the twentieth century there has been a progressive fall in the numbers of deaths, much of this relates to changes in fishing methods and in the types of vessels used. However in recent years, and with a fleet of smaller vessels, the mortality rates from accidents have shown little change and a larger proportion of deaths than in the past have arisen from personal injuries and drowning as compared to vessel losses. Disease makes a relatively small contribution to mortality at sea and this has dwindled with the decline in distant water fishing. Suicide and homicide both feature in a small way, but rates cannot readily be compared with those ashore. The pattern of change in vessels, fisheries and fishing techniques over the study period are complex. However, improved injury and drowning prevention is the most important way to reduce deaths, coupled with attention to vessel stability and maintenance. The social, economic and organisational features of the fishing industry mean that securing improvements in these areas is a major challenge.

Lung cancer mortality clusters in Shandong Province, China: how do they change over 40 years?

PubMed Central

Fu, Zhentao; Li, Yingmei; Lu, Zilong; Chu, Jie; Sun, Jiandong; Zhang, Jiyu; Zhang, Gaohui; Xue, Fuzhong; Guo, Xiaolei; Xu, Aiqiang

2017-01-01

Lung cancer has long been a major health problem in China. This study aimed to examine the temporal trend and spatial pattern of lung cancer mortality in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from Shandong Death Registration System and three nationwide retrospective cause-of-death surveys. A Purely Spatial Scan Statistics method with Discrete Poisson models was used to detect possible high-risk spatial clusters. The results show that lung cancer mortality rate in Shandong Province increased markedly from 1970-1974 (7.22 per 100,000 person-years) to 2011-2013 (56.37/100, 000). This increase was associated with both demographic and non-demographic factors. Several significant spatial clusters with high lung cancer mortality were identified. The most likely cluster was located in the northern region of Shandong Province during both 1970-1974 and 2011-2013. It appears the spatial pattern remained largely consistent over the last 40 years despite the absolute increase in the mortality rates. These findings will help develop intervention strategies to reduce lung cancer mortality in this large Chinese population. PMID:29179474

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952–2006: an age-period-cohort analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. Methods Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Results Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950–1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. Conclusions While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study. PMID:24725381

Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993–2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. METHODS: In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. RESULTS: We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06–3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. INTERPRETATION: Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. PMID:28923795

Geographic patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma mortality with exposure to iron in groundwater in Taiwanese population: An ecological study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Many studies have examined the risk factors for HCC (including hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, aflatoxin, retinol, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption). However, data from previous studies on the association between iron exposure, land subsidence, and HCC mortality/incidence were limited, especially in Taiwanese population. We aimed to explore the geographical distribution of HCC mortality rates by township-specific data and to evaluate the association between HCC mortality, land subsidence, and iron levels in groundwater in Taiwan. Methods We conducted an ecological study and calculated the HCC age-standardized mortality/incidence rates according to death certificates issued in Taiwan from 1992 to 2001 and incidence data from 1995–1998. The land subsidence dataset before 2005 and iron concentrations in groundwater in 1989 are also involved in this study. Both geographical information systems and Pearson correlation coefficients were used to analyze the relationship between HCC mortality rates, land subsidence, and iron concentrations in groundwater. Results Township-specific HCC mortality rates are higher in southwestern coastal townships where serious land subsidence and higher township-specific concentrations of iron in groundwater are present. The Pearson correlation coefficients of iron concentrations in groundwater and ASRs of HCC were 0.286 (P = 0.004) in males and 0.192 (P = 0.058) in females for mortality data; the coefficients were 0.375 (P < 0.001) in males and 0.210 (P = 0.038) in females for incidence data. Conclusions This study showed that HCC mortality is clustered in southwestern Taiwan and the association with the iron levels in groundwater in Taiwanese population warrant further investigation. PMID:23590585

Partitioning loss rates of early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass habitats into mortality and emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Etherington, L.L.; Eggleston, D.B.; Stockhausen, W.T.

2003-01-01

Determining how post-settlement processes modify patterns of settlement is vital in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of recruitment variability of species with open populations. Generally, either single components of post-settlement loss (mortality or emigration) are examined at a time, or else the total loss is examined without discrimination of mortality and emigration components. The role of mortality in the loss of early juvenile blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus, has been addressed in a few studies; however, the relative contribution of emigration has received little attention. We conducted mark-recapture experiments to examine the relative contribution of mortality and emigration to total loss rates of early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass habitats. Loss was partitioned into emigration and mortality components using a modified version of Jackson's (1939) square-within-a-square method. The field experiments assessed the effects of two size classes of early instars (J1-J2, J3-J5), two densities of juveniles (low: 16 m-2, high: 64 m-2), and time of day (day, night) on loss rates. In general, total loss rates of experimental juveniles and colonization rates by unmarked juveniles were extremely high (range = 10-57 crabs m-2/6 h and 17-51 crabs m-2/6 h, for loss and colonization, respectively). Total loss rates were higher at night than during the day, suggesting that juveniles (or potentially their predators) exhibit increased nocturnal activity. While colonization rates did not differ by time of day, J3-J5 juveniles demonstrated higher rates of colonization than J1-J2 crabs. Overall, there was high variability in both mortality and emigration, particularly for emigration. Average probabilities of mortality across all treatment combinations ranged from 0.25-0.67/6 h, while probabilities of emigration ranged from 0.29-0.72/6 h. Although mean mortality rates were greater than emigration rates in most treatments, the proportion of experimental trials in which crab loss from seagrass due to mortality was greater than losses due to emigration was not significantly different from 50%. Thus, mortality and emigration appear to contribute equally to juvenile loss in seagrass habitats. The difference in magnitude (absolute amount of loss) between mean emigration and mean mortality varied between size classes, such that differences between emigration and mortality were relatively small for J1-J2 crabs, but much larger for J3-J5 crabs. Further, mortality rates were density-dependent for J3-J5 juvenile stages but not for J1-J2 crabs, whereas emigration was inversely density-dependent among J3-J5 stages but not for J1-J2 instars. The co-dependency of mortality and emigration suggests that the loss term (emigration or mortality) which has the relatively stronger contribution to total loss may dictate the patterns of loss under different conditions. For older juveniles (J3-J5), emigration may only have a large impact on juvenile loss where densities are low, since the contribution of mortality appears to be much greater than emigration at high densities. The size-specific pattern of density-dependent mortality supports the notion of an ontogenetic habitat shift by early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass to unvegetated habitats, since larger individuals may experience increased mortality at high densities within seagrass beds. Qualitative comparisons between this study and a concurrent study of planktonic emigration of J1-J5 blue crabs (Blackmon and Eggleston, 2001) suggests that benthic emigration among J1-J2 blue crabs was greater than planktonic emigration; for J3-J5 stages benthic and planktonic emigration were nearly equal. This study demonstrates the potentially large role of emigration in recruitment processes and patterns of early juvenile blue crabs, and illustrates how juvenile size, juvenile density, and time of day can affect mortality and emigration rates as well as total loss and colonization. The components of po

The Association of Unfavorable Outcomes with the Intensity of Neurosurgical Care in the United States

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Object There is wide regional variability in the volume of procedures performed for similar surgical patients throughout the United States. We investigated the association of the intensity of neurosurgical care (defined as the average annual number of neurosurgical procedures per capita) with mortality, length of stay (LOS), and rate of unfavorable discharge for inpatients after neurosurgical procedures. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study involving the 202,518 patients who underwent cranial neurosurgical procedures from 2005–2010 and were registered in the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. Regression techniques were used to investigate the association of the average intensity of neurosurgical care with the average mortality, LOS, and rate of unfavorable discharge. Results The inpatient neurosurgical mortality, rate of unfavorable discharge, and average LOS varied significantly among several states. In a multivariate analysis male gender, coverage by Medicaid, and minority racial status were associated with increased mortality, rate of unfavorable discharge, and LOS. The opposite was true for coverage by private insurance, higher income, fewer comorbidities and small hospital size. There was no correlation of the intensity of neurosurgical care with the mortality (Pearson's ρ = −0.18, P = 0.29), rate of unfavorable discharge (Pearson's ρ = 0.08, P = 0.62), and LOS of cranial neurosurgical procedures (Pearson's ρ = −0.21, P = 0.22). Conclusions We observed significant disparities in mortality, LOS, and rate of unfavorable discharge for cranial neurosurgical procedures in the United States. Increased intensity of neurosurgical care was not associated with improved outcomes. PMID:24647225

Effectiveness of traffic-related elements in tree bark and pollen abortion rates for assessing air pollution exposure on respiratory mortality rates.

PubMed

Carvalho-Oliveira, Regiani; Amato-Lourenço, Luís F; Moreira, Tiana C L; Silva, Douglas R Rocha; Vieira, Bruna D; Mauad, Thais; Saiki, Mitiko; Saldiva, Paulo H Nascimento

2017-02-01

The majority of epidemiological studies correlate the cardiorespiratory effects of air pollution exposure by considering the concentrations of pollutants measured from conventional monitoring networks. The conventional air quality monitoring methods are expensive, and their data are insufficient for providing good spatial resolution. We hypothesized that bioassays using plants could effectively determine pollutant gradients, thus helping to assess the risks associated with air pollution exposure. The study regions were determined from different prevalent respiratory death distributions in the Sao Paulo municipality. Samples of tree flower buds were collected from twelve sites in four regional districts. The genotoxic effects caused by air pollution were tested through a pollen abortion bioassay. Elements derived from vehicular traffic that accumulated in tree barks were determined using energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (EDXRF). Mortality data were collected from the mortality information program of Sao Paulo City. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the concentrations of elements accumulated in tree barks. Pearson correlation and exponential regression were performed considering the elements, pollen abortion rates and mortality data. PCA identified five factors, of which four represented elements related to vehicular traffic. The elements Al, S, Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn showed a strong correlation with mortality rates (R 2 >0.87) and pollen abortion rates (R 2 >0.82). These results demonstrate that tree barks and pollen abortion rates allow for correlations between vehicular traffic emissions and associated outcomes such as genotoxic effects and mortality data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends of Thyroid Cancer in Israel: 1980–2012

PubMed Central

Keinan-Boker, Lital; Silverman, Barbara G.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing worldwide, while mortality from thyroid cancer is stable or decreasing. Consequently, survival rates are rising. We describe time trends in the incidence, mortality, and 5-year survival of thyroid cancer in Israel in 1980–2012, in light of the global trends. Methods: Israel National Cancer Registry database provided information regarding thyroid cancer incidence and vital status, which enabled computation of survival rates. The Central Bureau of Statistics database provided information on thyroid cancer mortality. Incidence and mortality rates were age-adjusted and presented by population group (Jews/Arabs) and gender. Relative 5-year survival rates which account for the general population survival in the corresponding time period were presented by population group and gender. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess incidence trends over time. Results: In 1980–2012 significant increases in the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed, with an annual percent change (APC) range of 3.98–6.93, driven almost entirely by papillary carcinoma (APCs 5.75–8.86), while rates of other types of thyroid cancer remained stable or decreased. Furthermore, higher rates of early detection were noted. In 1980–2012, a modest reduction in thyroid cancer mortality was observed in Jewish women (APC −1.07) with no substantial change in Jewish men. The 5-year relative survival after thyroid cancer diagnosis has increased to ≥90% in both population groups and both genders. Conclusions: The Israeli secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence (increasing), mortality (mostly stable), and survival (modestly increasing) closely follow reported global trends. PMID:26886958

Unintentional Child and Adolescent Drowning Mortality from 2000 to 2013 in 21 Countries: Analysis of the WHO Mortality Database.

PubMed

Wu, Yue; Huang, Yun; Schwebel, David C; Hu, Guoqing

2017-08-04

Limited research considers change over time for drowning mortality among individuals under 20 years of age, or the sub-cause (method) of those drownings. We assessed changes in under-20 drowning mortality from 2000 to 2013 among 21 countries. Age-standardized drowning mortality data were obtained through the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database. Twenty of the 21 included countries experienced a reduction in under-20 drowning mortality rate between 2000 and 2013, with decreases ranging from -80 to -13%. Detailed analysis by drowning method presented large variations in the cause of drowning across countries. Data were missing due to unspecified methods in some countries but, when known, drowning in natural bodies of water was the primary cause of child and adolescent drowning in Poland (56-92%), Cuba (53-81%), Venezuela (43-56%), and Japan (39-60%), while drowning in swimming pools and bathtubs was common in the United States (26-37%) and Japan (28-39%), respectively. We recommend efforts to raise the quality of drowning death reporting systems and discuss prevention strategies that may reduce child and adolescent drowning risk, both in individual countries and globally.

U.S. congressional district cancer death rates.

PubMed

Hao, Yongping; Ward, Elizabeth M; Jemal, Ahmedin; Pickle, Linda W; Thun, Michael J

2006-06-23

Geographic patterns of cancer death rates in the U.S. have customarily been presented by county or aggregated into state economic or health service areas. Herein, we present the geographic patterns of cancer death rates in the U.S. by congressional district. Many congressional districts do not follow state or county boundaries. However, counties are the smallest geographical units for which death rates are available. Thus, a method based on the hierarchical relationship of census geographic units was developed to estimate age-adjusted death rates for congressional districts using data obtained at county level. These rates may be useful in communicating to legislators and policy makers about the cancer burden and potential impact of cancer control in their jurisdictions. Mortality data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for 1990-2001 for 50 states, the District of Columbia, and all counties. We computed annual average age-adjusted death rates for all cancer sites combined, the four major cancers (lung and bronchus, prostate, female breast, and colorectal cancer) and cervical cancer. Cancer death rates varied widely across congressional districts for all cancer sites combined, for the four major cancers, and for cervical cancer. When examined at the national level, broad patterns of mortality by sex, race and region were generally similar with those previously observed based on county and state economic area. We developed a method to generate cancer death rates by congressional district using county-level mortality data. Characterizing the cancer burden by congressional district may be useful in promoting cancer control and prevention programs, and persuading legislators to enact new cancer control programs and/or strengthening existing ones. The method can be applied to state legislative districts and other analyses that involve data aggregation from different geographic units.

U.S. congressional district cancer death rates

PubMed Central

Hao, Yongping; Ward, Elizabeth M; Jemal, Ahmedin; Pickle, Linda W; Thun, Michael J

2006-01-01

Background Geographic patterns of cancer death rates in the U.S. have customarily been presented by county or aggregated into state economic or health service areas. Herein, we present the geographic patterns of cancer death rates in the U.S. by congressional district. Many congressional districts do not follow state or county boundaries. However, counties are the smallest geographical units for which death rates are available. Thus, a method based on the hierarchical relationship of census geographic units was developed to estimate age-adjusted death rates for congressional districts using data obtained at county level. These rates may be useful in communicating to legislators and policy makers about the cancer burden and potential impact of cancer control in their jurisdictions. Results Mortality data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for 1990–2001 for 50 states, the District of Columbia, and all counties. We computed annual average age-adjusted death rates for all cancer sites combined, the four major cancers (lung and bronchus, prostate, female breast, and colorectal cancer) and cervical cancer. Cancer death rates varied widely across congressional districts for all cancer sites combined, for the four major cancers, and for cervical cancer. When examined at the national level, broad patterns of mortality by sex, race and region were generally similar with those previously observed based on county and state economic area. Conclusion We developed a method to generate cancer death rates by congressional district using county-level mortality data. Characterizing the cancer burden by congressional district may be useful in promoting cancer control and prevention programs, and persuading legislators to enact new cancer control programs and/or strengthening existing ones. The method can be applied to state legislative districts and other analyses that involve data aggregation from different geographic units. PMID:16796732

Risk factors for operative morbidity and mortality in gastric cancer patients undergoing total gastrectomy

PubMed Central

Gong, Dao-Jun; Miao, Chao-Feng; Bao, Qi; Jiang, Ming; Zhang, Li-Fang; Tong, Xiao-Tao; Chen, Li

2008-01-01

AIM: To study the risk factors for morbidity and mortality following total gastrectomy. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of 125 consecutive patients who underwent total gastrectomy for gastric cancer at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine between January 2003 and March 2008. RESULTS: The overall morbidity rate was 20.8% (27 patients) and the mortality rate was 3.2% (4 patients). Morbidity rates were higher in patients aged over 60 [odds ratio (OR) 4.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09 to 12.05)], with preoperative comorbidity [with vs without, OR 1.25 (95% CI 1.13 to 8.12)], when the combined resection was performed [combined resection vs total gastrectomy only, OR 2.67 (95% CI 1.58 to 5.06)]. CONCLUSION: Age, preoperative comorbidity and combined resection were independently associated with the rate of morbidity after total gastrectomy for gastric cancer. PMID:19030212

Relative or Absolute Standards for Child Poverty: A State-Level Analysis of Infant and Child Mortality

PubMed Central

Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Lynch, John; Harper, Sam; Raghunathan, Trivellore; Kaplan, George A.

2003-01-01

Objectives. The purpose of the present study was to compare the associations of state-referenced and federal poverty measures with states’ infant and child mortality rates. Methods. Compressed mortality and Current Population Survey data were used to examine relationships between mortality and (1) state-referenced poverty (percentage of children below half the state median income) and (2) percentage of children below the federal poverty line. Results. State-referenced poverty was not associated with mortality among infants or children, whereas poverty as defined by national standards was strongly related to mortality. Conclusions. Infant and child mortality is more closely tied to families’ capacity for meeting basic needs than to relative position within a state’s economic hierarchy. PMID:12660213

Suicide in Serbia.

PubMed

Ilic, M; Ilic, I

2016-03-15

Suicide remains a significant public health problem worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the mortality trend of suicide in Serbia for the years 1991-2014. Data on persons who died of suicide and self-inflicted injury (site codes E950-E959 revision 9 and X60-X84 revision 10 of the International Classification of Diseases to classify death, injury and cause of death) were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. The age standardized rate was calculated by direct method (per 100,000 persons, using Segi's World population as standard population). Average annual percentage change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed for trend using the joinpoint regression analysis. Total 33,930 (24,016 men and 9914 women) suicide deaths occurred in Serbia during the observed period, with the average annual age-standardized mortality rate being 12.7 per 100,000 inhabitants (19.5 per 100,000 in men and 6.7 per 100,000 in women). Suicide mortality in all age groups was higher among men than women. In both genders, suicide rates were highest in the oldest age group. Significantly decreased trend in suicide mortality was recorded continuously from 1991 to 2014 (AAPC=-1.9%, 95%CI -2.2 to -1.6). The most frequently used suicide method in both genders was hanging, strangulation or suffocation with 61.2% off all suicides. Changes in mortality rates were significant both for suicide by firearms, air guns and explosives (AAPC=-1.5% (AAPC=-1.5% in men and -3.1%-3.1% in women) and for suicide by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation (AAPC=-1.2% (AAPC=-1.2% in men and -3.0%-3.0% in women). In men, nonsignificant increase in suicide by firearms, air guns and explosives observed during the period 1991-1997 (by +6.1% per year) was followed by a significant decrease until 2014 (by -3.1% per year). The significantly increased mortality in suicide by firearms, air guns, and explosives was observed in older men (aged 40-69 years and 80 years and over). The low rate of autopsies in Serbia, as well as the accuracy, reliability and comparability of the suicide mortality data is always a question. Downward trend in suicide mortality occurred in Serbia in last two decades. However, suicide rates are still very high in Serbia compared with the rates of suicides in developed countries. Particularly worrisome is the increase in mortality in older men, especially due to firearm suicides, air rifles, and explosives. Thus, additional efforts in the prevention of suicide are very important. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling infant mortality rate in Central Java, Indonesia use generalized poisson regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahutama, Alan; Sudarno

2018-05-01

The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths under one year of age occurring among the live births in a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 live births occurring among the population of the given geographical area during the same year. This problem needs to be addressed because it is an important element of a country’s economic development. High infant mortality rate will disrupt the stability of a country as it relates to the sustainability of the population in the country. One of regression model that can be used to analyze the relationship between dependent variable Y in the form of discrete data and independent variable X is Poisson regression model. Recently The regression modeling used for data with dependent variable is discrete, among others, poisson regression, negative binomial regression and generalized poisson regression. In this research, generalized poisson regression modeling gives better AIC value than poisson regression. The most significant variable is the Number of health facilities (X1), while the variable that gives the most influence to infant mortality rate is the average breastfeeding (X9).

Ecologic regression analysis and the study of the influence of air quality on mortality.

PubMed Central

Selvin, S; Merrill, D; Wong, L; Sacks, S T

1984-01-01

This presentation focuses entirely on the use and evaluation of regression analysis applied to ecologic data as a method to study the effects of ambient air pollution on mortality rates. Using extensive national data on mortality, air quality and socio-economic status regression analyses are used to study the influence of air quality on mortality. The analytic methods and data are selected in such a way that direct comparisons can be made with other ecologic regression studies of mortality and air quality. Analyses are performed by use of two types of geographic areas, age-specific mortality of both males and females and three pollutants (total suspended particulates, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide). The overall results indicate no persuasive evidence exists of a link between air quality and general mortality levels. Additionally, a lack of consistency between the present results and previous published work is noted. Overall, it is concluded that linear regression analysis applied to nationally collected ecologic data cannot be used to usefully infer a causal relationship between air quality and mortality which is in direct contradiction to other major published studies. PMID:6734568

Cancer incidence and mortality in Serbia 1999–2009

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Despite the increase in cancer incidence in the last years in Serbia, no nation-wide, population-based cancer epidemiology data have been reported. In this study cancer incidence and mortality rates for Serbia are presented using nation-wide data from two population-based cancer registries. These rates are additionally compared to European and global cancer epidemiology estimates. Finally, predictions on Serbian cancer incidence and mortality rates are provided. Methods Cancer incidence and mortality was collected from the cancer registries of Central Serbia and Vojvodina from 1999 to 2009. Using age-specific regression models, we estimated time trends and predictions for cancer incidence and mortality for the following five years (2010–2014). The comparison of Serbian with European and global cancer incidence/mortality rates, adjusted to the world population (ASR-W) was performed using Serbian population-based data and estimates from GLOBOCAN 2008. Results Increasing trends in both overall cancer incidence and mortality rates were identified for Serbia. In men, lung cancer showed the highest incidence (ASR-W 2009: 70.8/100,000), followed by colorectal (ASR-W 2009: 39.9/100,000), prostate (ASR-W 2009: 29.1/100,000) and bladder cancer (ASR-W 2009: 16.2/100,000). Breast cancer was the most common form of cancer in women (ASR-W 2009: 70.8/100,000) followed by cervical (ASR-W 2009: 25.5/100,000), colorectal (ASR-W 2009: 21.1/100,000) and lung cancer (ASR-W 2009: 19.4/100,000). Prostate and colorectal cancers have been significantly increasing over the last years in men, while this was also observed for breast cancer incidence and lung cancer mortality in women. In 2008 Serbia had the highest mortality rate from breast cancer (ASR-W 2008: 22.7/100,000), among all European countries while incidence and mortality of cervical, lung and colorectal cancer were well above European estimates. Conclusion Cancer incidence and mortality in Serbia has been generally increasing over the past years. For a number of cancer sites, incidence and mortality is alarmingly higher than in the majority of European regions. For this increasing trend to be controlled, the management of risk factors that are present among the Serbian population is necessary. Additionally, prevention and early diagnosis are areas where significant improvements could still be made. PMID:23320890

[Incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China, 2014].

PubMed

Gu, X Y; Zheng, R S; Sun, K X; Zhang, S W; Zeng, H M; Zou, X N; Chen, W Q; He, J

2018-04-23

Objective: To estimate the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China based on the cancer registry data in 2014, collected by the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR). Methods: There were 449 cancer registries submitted cervical cancer incidence and deaths in 2014 to NCCR. After evaluating the data quality, 339 registries' data were accepted for analysis and stratified by areas (urban/rural) and age group. Combined with data on national population in 2014, the nationwide incidence and mortality of cervical cancer were estimated. Chinese population census in 2000 and Segi's population were used for age-standardized incidence/mortality rates. Results: Qualified 339 cancer registries covered a total of 288 243 347 populations (144 061 915 in urban and 144 181 432 in rural areas). The percentage of morphologically verified cases and death certificate-only cases were 86.07% and 1.01%, respectively. The mortality to incidence ratio was 0.30. The estimates of new cases were about 102 000 in China in 2014, with a crude incidence rate of 15.30/100 000. The age-standardized incidence rates by China standard population (ASR China) and world standard population (ASR world) of cervical cancer were 11.57/100 000 and 10.61/100 000, respectively. Cumulative incidence rate of cervical cancer in China was 1.11%. The crude and ASR China incidence rates in urban areas were 15.27/100 000 and 11.16/100 000, respectively, whereas those were 15.34/100 000 and 12.14/100 000 in rural areas. The estimates of cervical cancer deaths were about 30 400 in China in 2014, with a crude mortality rate of 4.57/100 000. The ASR China and ASR world mortality rates were 3.12/100 000 and 2.98/100 000, respectively, with a cumulative mortality rate (0-74 years old) of 0.33%. The crude and ASR China mortality rates were 4.44/100 000 and 2.92/100 000 in urban areas, respectively, whereas those were 4.72/100 000 and 3.39/100 000 in rural areas. Conclusions: There is still a heavy burden of cervical cancer in China. The burden and patterns of cervical cancer shows different characters of urban and rural people. Prevention and control strategies should be implemented referring to local status.

Restrictions in Means for Suicide: An Effective Tool in Preventing Suicide: The Danish Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nordentoft, Merete; Qin, Ping; Helweg-Larsen, Karin

2007-01-01

Restriction of means for suicide is an important part of suicide preventive strategies in different countries. The effect on method-specific suicide rate and overall suicide rate of restrictions on availability of carbon monoxide, barbiturates, and dextropropoxyphene was examined. From 1970 to 2000, overall suicide mortality and method-specific…

[Trends in mortality by assault in women in selected countries of Latin America, 2001-2011].

PubMed

Molinatti, Florencia; Acosta, Laura Débora

2015-05-01

Describe the trend in deaths by assault in women in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico between 2001 and 2011. Descriptive study. Mortality from assaults and undetermined intentional acts was calculated, adjusted for age, using the direct method and the World Health Organization's standard population. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify statistically significant changes. The male:female mortality ratio was compared and trends in the rates were calculated and adjusted for each of the two causes of death and the specific rates of mortality by assault in women by age group. The highest rates of assault of women were reported in Brazil, followed by Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, and Chile. Between 2001 and 2011, decreases were reported from Argentina and Colombia; in Brazil and Mexico the rates increased; and in Chile they remained stable. The highest specific rates were found in young women (15-29 years) and adults (30-44 and 45-59 years). In Colombia the rates declined in all groups, while in Mexico they increased in women aged 15 to 59 years. Only Colombia showed a decrease in mortality from undetermined intentional acts; in Argentina and Mexico there was a decrease at the beginning of the period with a later increase; in Brazil no variations were observed. Mortality from assaults on women in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico between 2001 and 2011 was higher than the world average and the Latin American average; rates were lower in Argentina and Chile, with minor differences between the sexes. Progress must be made in terms of understanding the power relationships that underlie femicide, which should be included in national criminal legislation.

Mortality in the endangered Laysan teal, Anas laysanensis: conservation implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, M.H.; Work, Thierry M.

2005-01-01

The Laysan Teal Anas laysanensis is an endangered anatid of the Hawaiian Islands, currently restricted to an emergent atoll, Laysan Island. Laysan Island lacks terrestrial mammalian predators, which permits the examination of mortality rates and causes without the anthropogenic effects of introduced predators. Mass and morophometrics were measured during the colour-marking of 297 Laysan Teal between 1998 and 2001. Intensive mark-resighting and recovery methods were used to estimate adult and juvenile mortality. One hundred and nineteen carcasses were collected on Laysan between 1998 and 2003, and systematic gross and microscopic examinations were undertaken on 63 of these. Causes of mortality were categorised as trauma, emaciation, miscellaneous or undetermined. Annual adult mortality rates were low, 0.05-0.10 (s.e. <0.01), but duckling mortality was much higher, varying from approximately 0.7-0.9 during 1998-2000 and 2003. Body condition of both sexes deteriorates during the breeding season, and most adult mortality (88%) occurred during or post-breeding (May-October). Cause of mortality was determined via necropsy in 22 ducks. Of three adults, one died from bacterial infections, one was egg bound, and one died from botulism concomitant with nematode infestation. Fourteen ducklings died from acute trauma, four from emaciation sometimes associated with nematode infection, and one from bacterial pneumonia Trauma is a significant factor in Laysan duckling mortalities, and elucidating the cause of and preventing such trauma may allow for management measures to enhance duckling survivability. High duckling mortality rates and emaciation also indicate that habitat on Laysan Island may have limited capacity to support broods.

Optimum moisture levels for biodegradation of mortality composting envelope materials.

PubMed

Ahn, H K; Richard, T L; Glanville, T D

2008-01-01

Moisture affects the physical and biological properties of compost and other solid-state fermentation matrices. Aerobic microbial systems experience different respiration rates (oxygen uptake and CO2 evolution) as a function of moisture content and material type. In this study the microbial respiration rates of 12 mortality composting envelope materials were measured by a pressure sensor method at six different moisture levels. A wide range of respiration (1.6-94.2mg O2/g VS-day) rates were observed for different materials, with alfalfa hay, silage, oat straw, and turkey litter having the highest values. These four envelope materials may be particularly suitable for improving internal temperature and pathogen destruction rates for disease-related mortality composting. Optimum moisture content was determined based on measurements across a range that spans the maximum respiration rate. The optimum moisture content of each material was observed near water holding capacity, which ranged from near 60% to over 80% on a wet basis for all materials except a highly stabilized soil compost blend (optimum around 25% w.b.). The implications of the results for moisture management and process control strategies during mortality composting are discussed.

Perinatal and maternal morbidity and mortality after attempted operative vaginal delivery at midpelvic station

PubMed Central

Muraca, Giulia M.; Sabr, Yasser; Lisonkova, Sarka; Skoll, Amanda; Brant, Rollin; Cundiff, Geoffrey W.; Joseph, K.S.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Increased use of operative vaginal delivery (i.e., forceps or vacuum application), of which 20% occurs at midpelvic station, has been advocated to reduce the rate of cesarean delivery. We aimed to quantify severe perinatal and maternal morbidity and mortality associated with attempted midpelvic operative vaginal delivery. METHODS: We studied all term singleton deliveries in Canada between 2003 and 2013, by attempted midpelvic operative vaginal or cesarean delivery with labour (with and without prolonged second stage). The primary outcomes were composite severe perinatal morbidity and mortality (e.g., convulsions, assisted ventilation, severe birth trauma and perinatal death), and composite severe maternal morbidity and mortality (e.g., severe postpartum hemorrhage, shock, sepsis, cardiac complications, acute renal failure and death). RESULTS: The study population included 187 234 deliveries. Among women with dystocia and prolonged second stage of labour, midpelvic operative vaginal delivery was associated with higher rates of severe perinatal morbidity and mortality compared with cesarean delivery (forceps, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24 to 2.64; vacuum, AOR 1.81, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.80; sequential instruments, AOR 3.19, 95% CI 1.73 to 5.88), especially with higher rates of severe birth trauma. Rates of severe maternal morbidity and mortality were not significantly different after operative vaginal delivery, although rates of obstetric trauma were higher (forceps, AOR 4.51, 95% CI 4.04 to 5.02; vacuum, AOR 2.70, 95% CI 2.35 to 3.09; sequential instruments, AOR 4.24, 95% CI 3.46 to 5.19). Among women with fetal distress, similar associations were seen for severe birth trauma and obstetric trauma, although vacuum was associated with lower rates of severe maternal morbidity and mortality (AOR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.80). Associations tended to be stronger among women without a prolonged second stage. INTERPRETATION: Midpelvic operative vaginal delivery is associated with higher rates of severe birth trauma and obstetric trauma, whereas overall rates of severe perinatal and maternal morbidity and mortality vary by indication and operative instrument. PMID:28584040

Recent trends in 30-day mortality in patients with blunt splenic injury: A nationwide trauma database study in Japan

PubMed Central

Tanaka, Chie; Matsumoto, Hisashi; Matsuda, Kiyoshi; Kim, Shiei; Moroe, Yuta; Fukuda, Reo; Unemoto, Kyoko; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

Background Splenic injury frequently occurs after blunt abdominal trauma; however, limited epidemiological data regarding mortality are available. We aimed to investigate mortality rate trends after blunt splenic injury in Japan. Methods We retrospectively identified 1,721 adults with blunt splenic injury (American Association for the Surgery of Trauma splenic injury scale grades III–V) from the 2004–2014 Japan Trauma Data Bank. We grouped the records of these patients into 3 time phases: phase I (2004–2008), phase II (2009–2012), and phase III (2013–2014). Over the 3 phases, we analysed 30-day mortality rates and investigated their association with the prevalence of certain initial interventions (Mantel-Haenszel trend test). We further performed multiple imputation and multivariable analyses for comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent TAE or splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, adjusting for known potential confounders and for within-hospital clustering using generalised estimating equation. Results Over time, there was a significant decrease in 30-day mortality after splenic injury (p < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that mortality significantly decreased over time (from phase I to phase II, odds ratio: 0.39, 95% confidence interval: 0.22–0.67; from phase I to phase III, odds ratio: 0.34, 95% confidence interval: 0.19–0.62) for the overall cohort. While the 30-day mortality for splenectomy/splenorrhaphy diminished significantly over time (p = 0.01), there were no significant differences regarding mortality for non-operative management, with or without transcatheter arterial embolisation (p = 0.43, p = 0.29, respectively). Conclusions In Japan, in-hospital 30-day mortality rates decreased significantly after splenic injury between 2004 and 2014, even after adjustment for within-hospital clustering and other factors independently associated with mortality. Over time, mortality rates decreased significantly after splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, but not after non-operative management. This information is useful for clinicians when making decisions about treatments for patients with blunt splenic injury. PMID:28910356

Changing ethnic inequalities in mortality in New Zealand over 30 years: linked cohort studies with 68.9 million person-years of follow-up.

PubMed

Disney, George; Teng, Andrea; Atkinson, June; Wilson, Nick; Blakely, Tony

2017-01-01

Internationally, ethnic inequalities in mortality within countries are increasingly recognized as a public health concern. But few countries have data to monitor such inequalities. We aimed to provide a detailed description of ethnic inequalities (Māori [indigenous], Pacific, and European/Other) in mortality for a country with high quality ethnicity data, using both standard and novel visualization methods. Cohort studies of the entire New Zealand population were conducted, using probabilistically-linked Census and mortality data from 1981 to 2011 (68.9 million person years). Absolute (standardized rate difference) and relative (standardized rate ratio) inequalities were calculated, in 1-74-year-olds, for Māori and Pacific peoples in comparison to European/Other. All-cause mortality rates were highest for Māori, followed by Pacific peoples then European/Other, and declined in all three ethnic groups over time. Pacific peoples experienced the slowest annual percentage fall in mortality rates, then Māori, with European/Other having the highest percentage falls - resulting in widening relative inequalities. Absolute inequalities, however, for both Māori and Pacific males compared to European/Other have been falling since 1996. But for females, only Māori absolute inequalities (compared with European/Other) have been falling. Regarding cause of death, cancer is becoming a more important contributor than cardiovascular disease (CVD) to absolute inequalities, especially for Māori females. We found declines in all-cause mortality rates, over time, for each ethnic group of interest. Ethnic mortality inequalities are generally stable or even falling in absolute terms, but have increased on a relative scale. The drivers of these inequalities in mortality are transitioning over time, away from CVD to cancer and diabetes; such transitions are likely in other countries, and warrant further research. To address these inequalities, policymakers need to enhance prevention activities and health care delivery, but also support wider improvements in educational achievement and socioeconomic position for highest need populations.

Changing ethnic inequalities in mortality in New Zealand over 30 years: linked cohort studies with 68.9 million person-years of follow-up.

PubMed

Disney, George; Teng, Andrea; Atkinson, June; Wilson, Nick; Blakely, Tony

2017-04-26

Internationally, ethnic inequalities in mortality within countries are increasingly recognized as a public health concern. But few countries have data to monitor such inequalities. We aimed to provide a detailed description of ethnic inequalities (Māori [indigenous], Pacific, and European/Other) in mortality for a country with high quality ethnicity data, using both standard and novel visualization methods. Cohort studies of the entire New Zealand population were conducted, using probabilistically-linked Census and mortality data from 1981 to 2011 (68.9 million person years). Absolute (standardized rate difference) and relative (standardized rate ratio) inequalities were calculated, in 1-74-year-olds, for Māori and Pacific peoples in comparison to European/Other. All-cause mortality rates were highest for Māori, followed by Pacific peoples then European/Other, and declined in all three ethnic groups over time. Pacific peoples experienced the slowest annual percentage fall in mortality rates, then Māori, with European/Other having the highest percentage falls - resulting in widening relative inequalities. Absolute inequalities, however, for both Māori and Pacific males compared to European/Other have been falling since 1996. But for females, only Māori absolute inequalities (compared with European/Other) have been falling. Regarding cause of death, cancer is becoming a more important contributor than cardiovascular disease (CVD) to absolute inequalities, especially for Māori females. We found declines in all-cause mortality rates, over time, for each ethnic group of interest. Ethnic mortality inequalities are generally stable or even falling in absolute terms, but have increased on a relative scale. The drivers of these inequalities in mortality are transitioning over time, away from CVD to cancer and diabetes; such transitions are likely in other countries, and warrant further research. To address these inequalities, policymakers need to enhance prevention activities and health care delivery, but also support wider improvements in educational achievement and socioeconomic position for highest need populations.

Child Deaths Due to Injury in the Four UK Countries: A Time Trends Study from 1980 to 2010

PubMed Central

Hardelid, Pia; Davey, Jonathan; Dattani, Nirupa; Gilbert, Ruth

2013-01-01

Background Injuries are an increasingly important cause of death in children worldwide, yet injury mortality is highly preventable. Determining patterns and trends in child injury mortality can identify groups at particularly high risk. We compare trends in child deaths due to injury in four UK countries, between 1980 and 2010. Methods We obtained information from death certificates on all deaths occurring between 1980 and 2010 in children aged 28 days to 18 years and resident in England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Injury deaths were defined by an external cause code recorded as the underlying cause of death. Injury mortality rates were analysed by type of injury, country of residence, age group, sex and time period. Results Child mortality due to injury has declined in all countries of the UK. England consistently experienced the lowest mortality rate throughout the study period. For children aged 10 to 18 years, differences between countries in mortality rates increased during the study period. Inter-country differences were largest for boys aged 10 to 18 years with mortality rate ratios of 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.16, 1.64) for Wales, 1.68 (1.48, 1.91) for Scotland and 1.81 (1.50, 2.18) for Northern Ireland compared with England (the baseline) in 2006–10. The decline in mortality due to injury was accounted for by a decline in unintentional injuries. For older children, no declines were observed for deaths caused by self-harm, by assault or from undetermined intent in any UK country. Conclusion Whilst child deaths from injury have declined in all four UK countries, substantial differences in mortality rates remain between countries, particularly for older boys. This group stands to gain most from policy interventions to reduce deaths from injury in children. PMID:23874585

Indirectly estimated absolute lung cancer mortality rates by smoking status and histological type based on a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background National smoking-specific lung cancer mortality rates are unavailable, and studies presenting estimates are limited, particularly by histology. This hinders interpretation. We attempted to rectify this by deriving estimates indirectly, combining data from national rates and epidemiological studies. Methods We estimated study-specific absolute mortality rates and variances by histology and smoking habit (never/ever/current/former) based on relative risk estimates derived from studies published in the 20th century, coupled with WHO mortality data for age 70–74 for the relevant country and period. Studies with populations grossly unrepresentative nationally were excluded. 70–74 was chosen based on analyses of large cohort studies presenting rates by smoking and age. Variations by sex, period and region were assessed by meta-analysis and meta-regression. Results 148 studies provided estimates (Europe 59, America 54, China 22, other Asia 13), 54 providing estimates by histology (squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma). For all smoking habits and lung cancer types, mortality rates were higher in males, the excess less evident for never smokers. Never smoker rates were clearly highest in China, and showed some increasing time trend, particularly for adenocarcinoma. Ever smoker rates were higher in parts of Europe and America than in China, with the time trend very clear, especially for adenocarcinoma. Variations by time trend and continent were clear for current smokers (rates being higher in Europe and America than Asia), but less clear for former smokers. Models involving continent and trend explained much variability, but non-linearity was sometimes seen (with rates lower in 1991–99 than 1981–90), and there was regional variation within continent (with rates in Europe often high in UK and low in Scandinavia, and higher in North than South America). Conclusions The indirect method may be questioned, because of variations in definition of smoking and lung cancer type in the epidemiological database, changes over time in diagnosis of lung cancer types, lack of national representativeness of some studies, and regional variation in smoking misclassification. However, the results seem consistent with the literature, and provide additional information on variability by time and region, including evidence of a rise in never smoker adenocarcinoma rates relative to squamous cell carcinoma rates. PMID:23570286

Relationship Between Air Pollution, Weather, Traffic, and Traffic-Related Mortality

PubMed Central

Dastoorpoor, Maryam; Idani, Esmaeil; Khanjani, Narges; Goudarzi, Gholamreza; Bahrampour, Abbas

2016-01-01

Background Air pollution and weather are just two of many environmental factors contributing to traffic accidents (RTA). Objectives This study assessed the effects of these factors on traffic accidents and related mortalities in Ahvaz, Iran. Methods In this ecological study, data about RTA, traffic-related mortalities, air pollution (including NO, CO, NO2, NOx PM10, SO2, and O3 rates) and climate data from March 2008 until March 2015 was acquired from the Khuzestan State Police Force, the Environmental Protection Agency and the State Meteorological Department. Statistical analysis was performed with STATA 12 through both crude and adjusted negative binomial regression methods. Results There was a significant positive correlation between increase in the monthly average temperature, the number of rainy days, and the number of frost days with the number of RTA (P < 0.05). Increased monthly average relative humidity, evaporation, and number of sunny days were negatively correlated with the frequency of RTA (P < 0.05). We also observed an inverse significant correlation between monthly average relative humidity, evaporation, and wind speed with traffic accident mortality (P < 0.05). Some air pollutants were negatively associated with the incidence rate of RTA. Conclusions It appears that some weather variables were significantly associated with increased RTA. However, increased levels of air pollutants were not associated with increased rates of RTA and/or related mortalities. Additional studies are recommended to explore this topic in more detail. PMID:28180125

Trends in perinatal deaths from 2010 to 2013 in the Guatemalan Western Highlands

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background While progress has been made in reducing neonatal mortality in Guatemala, stillbirth and maternal mortality rates remain high, especially among the indigenous populations, which have among the highest adverse pregnancy-related mortality rates in Guatemala. Methods We conducted a prospective study in the Western Highlands of Guatemala from 2010 through 2013, enrolling women during pregnancy with follow-up through 42-days postpartum. All pregnant women were identified and enrolled by study staff in the clusters in the Chimaltenango region for which we had 4 years of data. Enrolment usually occurred during the antenatal period; women were also visited following delivery and 42-days postpartum to collect outcomes. Measures of antenatal and delivery care were also obtained. Results Approximately four thousand women were enrolled annually (3,869 in 2010 to 4,570 in 2013). The stillbirth rate decreased significantly, from 22.0 per 1000 births (95% CI 16.6, 29.0) in 2010 to 16.7 (95% CI 13.5, 20.6) in 2013 (p-value 0.0223). The perinatal mortality rate decreased from 43.9 per 1,000 births (95% CI 36.0, 53.6) to 31.6 (95% CI 27.2, 36.7) (p-value 0.0003). The 28-day neonatal mortality rate decreased from 28.9 per 1000 live births (95% CI 25.2, 33.2) to 21.7 (95% CI 17.5, 26.9), p-value 0.0004. The maternal mortality rate was 134 per 100,000 in 2010 vs. 113 per 100,000 in 2013. Over the same period, hospital birth rates increased from 30.0 to 50.3%. Conclusions In a relatively short time period, significant improvements in neonatal, fetal and perinatal mortality were noted in an area of Guatemala with a history of poor pregnancy outcomes. These changes were temporally related to major increases in hospital-based delivery with skilled birth attendants, as well as improvements in the quality of delivery care, neonatal care, and prenatal care. PMID:26062407

Variations in mortality rates among Canadian neonatal intensive care units

PubMed Central

Sankaran, Koravangattu; Chien, Li-Yin; Walker, Robin; Seshia, Mary; Ohlsson, Arne; Lee, Shoo K.

2002-01-01

Background Most previous reports of variations in mortality rates for infants admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) have involved small groups of subpopulations, such as infants with very low birth weight. Our aim was to examine the incidence and causes of death and the risk-adjusted variation in mortality rates for a large group of infants of all birth weights admitted to Canadian NICUs. Methods We examined the deaths that occurred among all 19 265 infants admitted to 17 tertiary-level Canadian NICUs from January 1996 to October 1997. We used multivariate analysis to examine the risk factors associated with death and the variations in mortality rates, adjusting for risks in the baseline population, severity of illness on admission and whether the infant was outborn (born at a different hospital from the one where the NICU was located). Results The overall mortality rate was 4% (795 infants died). Forty percent of the deaths (n = 318) occurred within 2 days of NICU admission, 50% (n = 397) within 3 days and 75% (n = 596) within 12 days. The major conditions associated with death were gestational age less than 24 weeks (59 deaths [7%]), gestational age 24–28 weeks (325 deaths [41%]), outborn status (340 deaths [42%]), congenital anomalies (270 deaths [34%]), surgery (141 deaths [18%]), infection (108 deaths [14%]), hypoxic–ischemic encephalopathy (128 deaths [16%]) and small for gestational age (i.e., less than the third percentile) (77 deaths [10%]). There was significant variation in the risk-adjusted mortality rates (range 1.6% to 5.5%) among the 17 NICUs. Interpretation Most NICU deaths occurred within the first few days after admission. Preterm birth, outborn status and congenital anomalies were the conditions most frequently associated with death in the NICU. The significant variation in risk-adjusted mortality rates emphasizes the importance of risk adjustment for valid comparison of NICU outcomes. PMID:11826939

Analysis of mortality from suicide in children, adolescents and youth. Argentina, 2005-2007.

PubMed

Bella, Mónica E; Acosta, Laura; Villacé, Belén; López de Neira, María; Enders, Julio; Fernández, Ruth

2013-01-01

To analyze mortality from suicide in children, adolescents and youth aged 5 to 24 years by gender, method used, place where the incident occurred and residence (province) in Argentina over the period 2005-2007. Data of Statistical Death Reports were used. Mortality rates from suicide were estimated per 100 000 inhabitants using ICD-10 (X60- X84). The statistical method included categorical data analysis. Total deaths from suicide in the 5 to 24 year old group were 861 in 2005, 897 in 2006, and 815 in 2007. During the period 2005-2007, 6 deaths occurred in children younger than 10 years old. In the 10 to 24 year old group males had higher rates than females (p < 0.01). Analysis by gender and age group showed an increase of suicide in males in the group aged 20-24 years old (p < 0.01), while females had the highest rates of suicide in the 15 to 19 year old group. Hanging and use of firearms were the most frequent methods (p < 0.01). The home was the most frequent place where the incident occurred (p< 0.01). Santa Cruz, Salta and Jujuy had the highest rates of suicide in Argentina, whereas Santiago del Estero, Capital Federal and Misiones showed the lowest ones. Suicide in Argentinean adolescents and youth is a public health problem, especially among males. The provinces in the North and South of Argentina had the highest rates in the country.

Mortality among High Risk Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction Admitted to U.S. Teaching-Intensive Hospitals in July: A Retrospective Observational Study

PubMed Central

Jena, Anupam B.; Sun, Eric C.; Romley, John A.

2014-01-01

Background Studies of whether inpatient mortality in U.S. teaching hospitals rises in July as a result of organizational disruption and relative inexperience of new physicians (‘July effect’) find small and mixed results, perhaps because study populations primarily include low-risk inpatients whose mortality outcomes are unlikely to exhibit a July effect. Methods and Results Using the U.S. Nationwide Inpatient sample, we estimated difference-in-difference models of mortality, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) rates, and bleeding complication rates, for high and low risk patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) admitted to 98 teaching-intensive and 1353 non-teaching-intensive hospitals during May and July 2002 to 2008. Among patients in the top quartile of predicted AMI mortality (high risk), adjusted mortality was lower in May than July in teaching-intensive hospitals (18.8% in May, 22.7% in July, p<0.01), but similar in non-teaching-intensive hospitals (22.5% in May, 22.8% in July, p=0.70). Among patients in the lowest three quartiles of predicted AMI mortality (low risk), adjusted mortality was similar in May and July in both teaching-intensive hospitals (2.1% in May, 1.9% in July, p=0.45) and non-teaching-intensive hospitals (2.7% in May, 2.8% in July, p=0.21). Differences in PCI and bleeding complication rates could not explain the observed July mortality effect among high risk patients. Conclusions High risk AMI patients experience similar mortality in teaching- and non-teaching-intensive hospitals in July, but lower mortality in teaching-intensive hospitals in May. Low risk patients experience no such “July effect” in teaching-intensive hospitals. PMID:24152859

Using cure models for analyzing the influence of pathogens on salmon survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Adam R; Perry, Russell W.; Som, Nicholas A.; Bartholomew, Jerri L

2014-01-01

Parasites and pathogens influence the size and stability of wildlife populations, yet many population models ignore the population-level effects of pathogens. Standard survival analysis methods (e.g., accelerated failure time models) are used to assess how survival rates are influenced by disease. However, they assume that each individual is equally susceptible and will eventually experience the event of interest; this assumption is not typically satisfied with regard to pathogens of wildlife populations. In contrast, mixture cure models, which comprise logistic regression and survival analysis components, allow for different covariates to be entered into each part of the model and provide better predictions of survival when a fraction of the population is expected to survive a disease outbreak. We fitted mixture cure models to the host–pathogen dynamics of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and Coho Salmon O. kisutch and the myxozoan parasite Ceratomyxa shasta. Total parasite concentration, water temperature, and discharge were used as covariates to predict the observed parasite-induced mortality in juvenile salmonids collected as part of a long-term monitoring program in the Klamath River, California. The mixture cure models predicted the observed total mortality well, but some of the variability in observed mortality rates was not captured by the models. Parasite concentration and water temperature were positively associated with total mortality and the mortality rate of both Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon. Discharge was positively associated with total mortality for both species but only affected the mortality rate for Coho Salmon. The mixture cure models provide insights into how daily survival rates change over time in Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon after they become infected with C. shasta.

Global mesothelioma deaths reported to the World Health Organization between 1994 and 2008

PubMed Central

Delgermaa, Vanya; Park, Eun-Kee; Le, Giang Vinh; Hara, Toshiyuki; Sorahan, Tom

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To carry out a descriptive analysis of mesothelioma deaths reported worldwide between 1994 and 2008. Methods We extracted data on mesothelioma deaths reported to the World Health Organization mortality database since 1994, when the disease was first recorded. We also sought information from other English-language sources. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated and mortality trends were assessed from the annual percentage change in the age-adjusted mortality rate. Findings In total, 92 253 mesothelioma deaths were reported by 83 countries. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates were 6.2 and 4.9 per million population, respectively. The age-adjusted mortality rate increased by 5.37% per year and consequently more than doubled during the study period. The mean age at death was 70 years and the male-to-female ratio was 3.6:1. The disease distribution by anatomical site was: pleura, 41.3%; peritoneum, 4.5%; pericardium, 0.3%; and unspecified sites, 43.1%. The geographical distribution of deaths was skewed towards high-income countries: the United States of America reported the highest number, while over 50% of all deaths occurred in Europe. In contrast, less than 12% occurred in middle- and low-income countries. The overall trend in the age-adjusted mortality rate was increasing in Europe and Japan but decreasing in the United States. Conclusion The number of mesothelioma deaths reported and the number of countries reporting deaths increased during the study period, probably due to better disease recognition and an increase in incidence. The different time trends observed between countries may be an early indication that the disease burden is slowly shifting towards those that have used asbestos more recently. PMID:22084509

Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey

PubMed Central

Fledderjohann, Jasmine; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Khan, Zaky; Ebrahim, Shah; Stuckler, David

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India’s slow progress in improving childhood survival. Methods : Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002—08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states (‘Empowered Action Groups’). Results : Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories. Conclusions: Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states. PMID:27063607

Global trends in testicular cancer incidence and mortality.

PubMed

Rosen, Alexandre; Jayram, Gautam; Drazer, Michael; Eggener, Scott E

2011-08-01

Epidemiologic studies on testicular cancer have focused primarily on European countries. Global incidence and mortality have been less thoroughly evaluated. Our goal was to gain a better understanding of the most recent global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for testicular cancer and to use these values to estimate a region's health care quality. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for testicular cancer were obtained for men of all ages in 172 countries by using the GLOBOCAN 2008 database, reflecting the annual rate of cancer incidence and mortality per 100,000 men. These data were evaluated on a regional level to compare incidence and mortality rates. Global plots of these values were constructed to better visualize geographic distributions. Finally, the ratio of ASIR to ASMR was calculated as a method to assess each region's proficiency in diagnosing and effectively treating testicular cancer. ASIR and ASMR were analyzed by region, and each region's ratio of ASIR to ASMR was calculated. Testicular cancer ASIR is highest in Western Europe (7.8%), Northern Europe (6.7%), and Australia (6.5%). Asia and Africa had the lowest incidence (<1.0%). ASMR was highest in Central America (0.7%), western Asia (0.6%), and Central and Eastern Europe (0.6%). Mortality was lowest in North America, Northern Europe, and Australia (0.1-0.2%). The ASIR-ASMR ratio was highest in Australia (65.0%) and lowest in western Africa (1.0%). National reporting systems varied by country, and data quality may have fluctuated between regions. Testicular cancer incidence remains highest in developed nations with primarily Caucasian populations. Variable ASIR-ASMR ratios suggest markedly different geographic-specific reporting mechanisms, access to care, and treatment capabilities. Copyright © 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mortality during the first year of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1-infected patients in 7 sites throughout Latin America and the Caribbean

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Although nearly 2 million people live with HIV in Latin America and the Caribbean, mortality rates after initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) have not been well-described. Methods 5,152 HIV-infected, antiretroviral-naïve adults from clinics in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru starting HAART during 1996–2007 were included. First-year mortality rates and their association with demographics, regimen, baseline CD4, and clinical stage were assessed. Results Overall 1-year mortality rate was 8.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]:7.6–9.1%), although variable across sites: 2.6, 3.7, 6.0, 13.0, 10.8, 3.5, and 9.8% for clinics in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, and Peru, respectively. 80% of deaths occurred within the first 6 months. Median baseline CD4 was 107 cells/μL, ranging from 79 (Peru) to 163 (Argentina). Mortality estimates adjusting for CD4 were similar across sites (1.1–2.8% for CD4=200), except for Haiti, 7.5%, and Honduras, 7.0%. Death was associated with lower CD4 (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for CD4=200 vs CD4=50 was 0.58; 95% CI:0.40–0.85) and clinical AIDS (HR=3.1; 95% CI:2.1–4.5). Conclusions Mortality rates were similar to those reported elsewhere for resource-limited settings. Disease stage at HAART initiation, treatment eligibility criteria, program age, and background mortality rates may explain some variability in prognosis between sites. PMID:19430306

Epidemiology of perforated peptic ulcer: Age- and gender-adjusted analysis of incidence and mortality

PubMed Central

Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Kvaløy, Jan Terje; Glomsaker, Tom; Søreide, Kjetil

2013-01-01

AIM: To investigate the epidemiological trends in incidence and mortality of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) in a well-defined Norwegian population. METHODS: A retrospective, population-based, single-center, consecutive cohort study of all patients diagnosed with benign perforated peptic ulcer. Included were both gastric and duodenal ulcer patients admitted to Stavanger University Hospital between January 2001 and December 2010. Ulcers with a malignant neoplasia diagnosis, verified by histology after biopsy or resection, were excluded. Patients were identified from the hospitals administrative electronic database using pertinent ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes (K25.1, K25.2, K25.5, K25.6, K26.1, K26.2, K26.5, K26.6). Additional searches using appropriate codes for relevant laparoscopic and open surgical procedures (e.g., JDA 60, JDA 61, JDH 70 and JDH 71) were performed to enable a complete identification of all patients. Patient demographics, presentation patterns and clinical data were retrieved from hospital records and surgical notes. Crude and adjusted incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using national population demographics data. RESULTS: In the study period, a total of 172 patients with PPU were identified. The adjusted incidence rate for the overall 10-year period was 6.5 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 5.6-7.6) and the adjusted mortality rate for the overall 10-year period was 1.1 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 0.7-1.6). A non-significant decline in adjusted incidence rate from 9.7 to 5.6 occurred during the decade. The standardized mortality ratio for the whole study period was 5.7 (95%CI: 3.9-8.2), while the total 30-d mortality was 16.3%. No difference in incidence or mortality was found between genders. However, for patients ≥ 60 years, the incidence increased over 10-fold, and mortality more than 50-fold, compared to younger ages. The admission rates outside office hours were high with almost two out of three (63%) admissions seen at evening/night time shifts and/or during weekends. The observed seasonal variations in admissions were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The adjusted incidence rate, seasonal distribution and mortality rate was stable. PPU frequently presents outside regular work-hours. Increase in incidence and mortality occurs with older age. PMID:23372356

Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality Among American Indian and Alaska Native Women, 1999–2009

PubMed Central

Benard, Vicki; Thomas, Cheryll; Brayboy, Annie; Paisano, Roberta; Becker, Thomas

2014-01-01

Objectives. We analyzed cervical cancer incidence and mortality data in American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) women compared with women of other races. Methods. We improved identification of AI/AN race, cervical cancer incidence, and mortality data using Indian Health Service (IHS) patient records; our analyses focused on residents of IHS Contract Health Service Delivery Area (CHSDA) counties. Age-adjusted incidence and death rates were calculated for AI/AN and White women from 1999 to 2009. Results. AI/AN women in CHSDA counties had a death rate from cervical cancer of 4.2, which was nearly twice the rate in White women (2.0; rate ratio [RR] = 2.11). AI/AN women also had higher incidence rates of cervical cancer compared with White women (11.0 vs 7.1; RR = 1.55) and were more often diagnosed with later-stage disease (RR = 1.84 for regional stage and RR = 1.74 for distant stage). Death rates decreased for AI/AN women from 1990 to 1993 (−25.8%/year) and remained stable thereafter. Conclusions. Although rates decreased over time, AI/AN women had disproportionately higher cervical cancer incidence and mortality. The persistently higher rates among AI/AN women compared with White women require continued improvements in identifying and treating cervical cancer and precancerous lesions. PMID:24754650

Breast Cancer Mortality Among American Indian and Alaska Native Women, 1990–2009

PubMed Central

White, Arica; Richardson, Lisa C.; Li, Chunyu; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Kaur, Judith S.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We compared breast cancer death rates and mortality trends among American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) and White women using data for which racial misclassification was minimized. Methods. We used breast cancer deaths and cases linked to Indian Health Service (IHS) data to calculate age-adjusted rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by IHS-designated regions from 1990 to 2009 for AI/AN and White women; Hispanics were excluded. Mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR) were calculated for 1999 to 2009 as a proxy for prognosis after diagnosis. Results. Overall, the breast cancer death rate was lower in AI/AN women (21.6 per 100 000) than in White women (26.5). However, rates in AI/ANs were higher than rates in Whites for ages 40 to 49 years in the Alaska region, and ages 65 years and older in the Southern Plains region. White death rates significantly decreased (annual percent change [APC] = −2.1; 95% CI = −2.3, −2.0), but regional and overall AI/AN rates were unchanged (APC = 0.9; 95% CI = 0.1, 1.7). AI/AN women had higher MIRs than White women. Conclusions. There has been no improvement in death rates among AI/AN women. Targeted screening and timely, high-quality treatment are needed to reduce mortality from breast cancer in AI/AN women. PMID:24754658

Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of pre-existing immunity in older populations

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo

2010-01-01

Background While the mortality burden of the devastating 1918 influenza pandemic has been carefully quantified in the US, Japan, and European countries, little is known about the pandemic experience elsewhere. Here, we compiled extensive archival records to quantify the pandemic mortality patterns in two Mexican cities, Mexico City and Toluca. Methods We applied seasonal excess mortality models to age-specific respiratory mortality rates for 1915–1920 and quantified the reproduction number from daily data. Results We identified 3 pandemic waves in Mexico City in spring 1918, fall 1918, and winter 1920, characterized by unusual excess mortality in 25–44 years old. Toluca experienced 2-fold higher excess mortality rates than Mexico City, but did not have a substantial 3rd wave. All age groups including those over 65 years experienced excess mortality during 1918–20. Reproduction number estimates were below 2.5 assuming a 3-day generation interval. Conclusion Mexico experienced a herald pandemic wave with elevated young adult mortality in spring 1918, similar to the US and Europe. In contrast to the US and Europe, there was no mortality sparing in Mexican seniors, highlighting potential geographical differences in pre-existing immunity to the 1918 virus. We discuss the relevance of our findings to the 2009 pandemic mortality patterns. PMID:20594109

The Apgar Score and Infant Mortality

PubMed Central

Lei, Xiaoping; Zhang, Hao; Mao, Meng; Zhang, Jun

2013-01-01

Objective To evaluate if the Apgar score remains pertinent in contemporary practice after more than 50 years of wide use, and to assess the value of the Apgar score in predicting infant survival, expanding from the neonatal to the post-neonatal period. Methods The U.S. linked live birth and infant death dataset was used, which included 25,168,052 singleton births and 768,305 twin births. The outcome of interest was infant death within 1 year after birth. Cox proportional hazard-model was used to estimate risk ratio of infant mortality with different Apgar scores. Results Among births with a very low Apgar score at five minutes (1–3), the neonatal and post-neonatal mortality rates remained high until term (≥ 37 weeks). On the other hand, among births with a high Apgar score (≥7), neonatal and post-neonatal mortality rate decreased progressively with gestational age. Non-Hispanic White had a consistently higher neonatal mortality than non-Hispanic Black in both preterm and term births. However, for post-neonatal mortality, Black had significantly higher rate than White. The pattern of changes in neonatal and post-neonatal mortality by Apgar score in twin births is essentially the same as that in singleton births. Conclusions The Apgar score system has continuing value for predicting neonatal and post-neonatal adverse outcomes in term as well as preterm infants, and is applicable to twins and in various race/ethnic groups. PMID:23922681

Trends in Mortality Among Females in the United States, 1900–2010: Progress and Challenges

PubMed Central

Chang, Man-Huei; Parrish, R. Gibson; Teutsch, Steven M.; Jones, Wanda K.

2018-01-01

Introduction We analyzed trends in US female mortality rates by decade from 1900 through 2010, assessed age and racial differences, and proposed explanations and considered implications. Methods We conducted a descriptive study of trends in mortality rates from major causes of death for females in the United States from 1900 through 2010. We analyzed all-cause unadjusted death rates (UDRs) for males and females and for white and nonwhite males and females from 1900 through 2010. Data for blacks, distinct from other nonwhites, were available beginning in 1970 and are reported for this and following decades. We also computed age-adjusted all-cause death rates (AADRs) by the direct method using age-specific death rates and the 2000 US standard population. Data for the analysis of decadal trends in mortality rates were obtained from yearly tabulations of causes of death from published compilations and from public use computer data files. Results In 1900, UDRs and AADRs were higher for nonwhites than whites and decreased more rapidly for nonwhite females than for white females. Reductions were highest among younger females and lowest among older females. Rates for infectious diseases decreased the most. AADRs for heart disease increased 96.5% in the first 5 decades, then declined by 70.6%. AADRs for cancer rose, then decreased. Stroke decreased steadily. Unintentional motor vehicle injury AADRs increased, leveled off, then decreased. Differences between white and nonwhite female all-cause AADRs almost disappeared during the study period (5.4 per 100,000); differences in white and black AADRs remained high (121.7 per 100,000). Conclusion Improvements in social and environmental determinants of health probably account for decreased mortality rates among females in the early 20th century, partially offset by increased smoking. In the second half of the century, other public health and clinical measures contributed to reductions. The persistent prevalence of risk behaviors and underuse of preventive and medical services indicate opportunities for increased female longevity, particularly in racial minority populations. PMID:29522701

Impact of actuarial assumptions on pension costs: A simulation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Shaira; Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty

2013-04-01

This study investigates the sensitivity of pension costs to changes in the underlying assumptions of a hypothetical pension plan in order to gain a perspective on the relative importance of the various actuarial assumptions via a simulation analysis. Simulation analyses are used to examine the impact of actuarial assumptions on pension costs. There are two actuarial assumptions will be considered in this study which are mortality rates and interest rates. To calculate pension costs, Accrued Benefit Cost Method, constant amount (CA) modification, constant percentage of salary (CS) modification are used in the study. The mortality assumptions and the implied mortality experience of the plan can potentially have a significant impact on pension costs. While for interest rate assumptions, it is inversely related to the pension costs. Results of the study have important implications for analyst of pension costs.

Examining Alcohol's Contribution to the US African-American/White Cirrhosis Mortality Differential from 1950 to 2002

PubMed Central

Kerr, William C.; Karriker-Jaffe, Katherine J.; Ye, Yu

2013-01-01

Aims: The aim of this study was to estimate the overall impact of alcohol on US race- and sex-specific age-adjusted cirrhosis mortality rates and to consider beverage-specific effects that represent changes in drinking patterns over time, comparing states with large and small African-American/White cirrhosis mortality differentials. Methods: Using series data from 1950 to 2002, the effects of per capita alcohol consumption on cirrhosis mortality for African American and White men and women were estimated using generalized least squares panel models on first-differenced data. Granger causality tests explored geographic patterning of racial differences in cirrhosis mortality. Results: Cirrhosis mortality was significantly positively related to apparent consumption of alcohol, with an overall impact of 8–14%/l of ethanol. This effect was driven by spirits which were more strongly associated with mortality for African-American women and for African-American men in states with larger mortality differentials. This disparity first emerged in New York and spread through the Northeast and into Midwestern states. Conclusion: Differences in the contribution of alcohol to cirrhosis mortality rates suggest variation by race and gender in life-course patterns of heavy consumption, illicit liquor and spirits use, as well as birth cohort effects. PMID:23558110

The Impact of Profitability of Hospital Admissions on Mortality

PubMed Central

Lindrooth, Richard C; Konetzka, R Tamara; Navathe, Amol S; Zhu, Jingsan; Chen, Wei; Volpp, Kevin

2013-01-01

Background Fiscal constraints faced by Medicare are leading to policies designed to reduce expenditures. Evidence of the effect of reduced reimbursement on the mortality of Medicare patients discharged from all major hospital service lines is limited. Methods We modeled risk-adjusted 30-day mortality of patients discharged from 21 hospital service lines as a function of service line profitability, service line time trends, and hospital service line and year-fixed effects. We simulated the effect of alternative revenue-neutral reimbursement policies on mortality. Our sample included all Medicare discharges from PPS-eligible hospitals (1997, 2001, and 2005). Results The results reveal a statistically significant inverse relationship between changes in profitability and mortality. A $0.19 average reduction in profit per $1.00 of costs led to a 0.010–0.020 percentage-point increase in mortality rates (p < .001). Mortality in newly unprofitable service lines is significantly more sensitive to reduced payment generosity than in service lines that remain profitable. Policy simulations that target service line inequities in payment generosity result in lower mortality rates, roughly 700–13,000 fewer deaths nationally. Conclusions The policy simulations raise questions about the trade-offs implicit in universal reductions in reimbursement. The effect of reduced payment generosity on mortality could be mitigated by targeting highly profitable services only for lower reimbursement. PMID:23346946

Mortality patterns among residents in Louisiana's industrial corridor, USA, 1970–99

PubMed Central

Tsai, S; Cardarelli, K; Wendt, J; Fraser, A

2004-01-01

Background: Because of the high concentration of oil refining and petrochemical facilities, the industrial area of the lower Mississippi River of South Louisiana has been termed the Industrial Corridor and has frequently been referred to as the "Cancer Corridor". Aims: To quantitatively assess the "Cancer Corridor" controversy based on mortality data available in the public domain, and to identify potential contributing factors to the observed differences in mortality. Methods: Age adjusted mortality rates were calculated for white and non-white males and females in the Industrial Corridor, Louisiana, and the United States for the time periods 1970–79, 1980–89, and 1990–99. Results: All-cause mortality and all cancer combined for white males in the Industrial Corridor were significantly lower than the corresponding Louisiana population while Louisiana had significantly higher rates than the US population for all three time periods. Cancer of the lung was consistently higher in the Industrial Corridor region relative to national rates but lower than or similar to Louisiana. Non-respiratory disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality for white males in the Industrial Corridor were consistently lower than either Louisiana or the USA. However, mortality due to diabetes and heart disease, particularly during the 1990s, was significantly higher in the Industrial Corridor and Louisiana when compared to the USA. Similar mortality patterns were observed for white females. The mortality for non-white males and females in the Industrial Corridor was generally similar to the corresponding populations in Louisiana. There were no consistent patterns for all cancer mortality combined. Stomach cancer was increased among non-whites in both the Industrial Corridor and Louisiana when compared to the corresponding US data. Mortality from diabetes and heart disease among non-whites was significantly higher in the Industrial Corridor and Louisiana than in the USA. Conclusions: Mortality rates in the Industrial Corridor area were generally similar to or lower than the State of Louisiana, which were increased compared to the United States. Contrary to prior public perceptions, mortality due to cancer in the Industrial Corridor does not exceed that for the State of Louisiana. PMID:15031386

Mortality Rates and Cause of Death Among Former Prison Inmates in North Carolina.

PubMed

Jones, Mark; Kearney, Gregory D; Xu, Xiaohui; Norwood, Tammy; Proescholdbell, Scott K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Inmates face challenges upon release from prison, including increased risk of death. We examine mortality among former inmates in North Carolina, including both violent and nonviolent deaths. METHODS A retrospective cohort study among former North Carolina inmates released between 2008 and 2010 were linked with North Carolina mortality data to determine cause of death. Inmates were followed through December 31, 2012. Mortality rates among former inmates were compared with deaths among North Carolina residents using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). RESULTS Among former inmates (N = 41,495), there were 926 deaths during the study period. Compared to the North Carolina general population, SMRs were higher for all-cause mortality for total deaths (SMR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.97-2.24), heart disease (SMR = 4.45, 95% CI: 3.64-5.34), cancer (SMR = 3.92, 95% CI: 3.34-4.62), suicide (SMR = 14.46, 95% CI: 10.28-19.76), and homicide (SMR = 7.98, 95% CI: 6.34-10.03). DISCUSSION The death rate among former North Carolina inmates is significantly higher than that of other North Carolina residents. Although more research is needed, identifying areas for interventions is essential for reducing the risk of death among this population. ©2017 by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine and The Duke Endowment. All rights reserved.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality among Black and White North Carolina state prisoners, 1995-2005

PubMed Central

Wohl, David A.; Schoenbach, Victor J.

2011-01-01

Purpose We compared mortality rates among state prisoners and other state residents to identify prisoners’ healthcare needs Methods We linked North Carolina prison records with state death records for 1995-2005 to estimate all-cause and cause-specific death rates among Black and White male prisoners aged 20-79 years, and used standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) to compare these observed deaths with the expected number based on death rates among state residents Results The all-cause SMR of Black prisoners was 0.52 (95%CI: 0.48 0.57), with fewer deaths than expected from accidents, homicides, cardiovascular disease and cancer. The all-cause SMR of White prisoners was 1.12 (95%CI: 1.01, 1.25) with fewer deaths than expected for accidents, but more deaths than expected from viral hepatitis, liver disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory disease, and HIV. Conclusions Mortality of Black prisoners was lower than that of Black state residents for both traumatic and chronic causes of death. Mortality of White prisoners was lower than that of White state residents for accidents, but higher for several chronic causes of death. Future studies should investigate the effect of prisoners’ pre-incarceration and in-prison morbidity, the prison environment, and prison healthcare on prisoners’ patterns of mortality. PMID:21737304

Policing and risk of overdose mortality in urban neighborhoods

PubMed Central

Bohnert, Amy S.B.; Nandi, Arijit; Tracy, Melissa; Cerdá, Magdalena; Tardiff, Kenneth J; Vlahov, David; Galea, Sandro

2010-01-01

Background Accidental drug overdose is a major cause of mortality among drug users. Fears of police arrest may deter witnesses of drug overdose from calling for medical help and may be a determinant of drug overdose mortality. To our knowledge, no studies have empirically assessed the relation between levels of policing and drug overdose mortality. We hypothesized that levels of police activity, congruent with fears of police arrest, are positively associated with drug overdose mortality. Methods We assembled cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City (NYC) police precincts over the period 1990–1999 using data collected from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner of NYC, the NYC Police Department, and the US Census Bureau. Misdemeanor arrest rate—reflecting police activity—was our primary independent variable of interest, and overdose rate our primary dependent variable of interest. Results The mean overdose rate per 100,000 among police precincts in NYC between 1990 and 1999 was 10.8 (standard deviation = 10.0). In a Bayesian hierarchical model that included random spatial and temporal effects and a space-time interaction, the misdemeanor arrest rate per 1,000 was associated with higher overdose mortality (posterior median = 0.003, 95% Credible Interval = 0.001, 0.005) after adjustment for overall drug use in the precinct and demographic characteristics. Conclusions Levels of police activity in a precinct are associated with accidental drug overdose mortality. Future research should examine aspects of police-community interactions that contribute to higher overdose mortality. PMID:20727684

The role of gender in the association between self-rated health and mortality among older adults in Santiago, Chile: A cohort study

PubMed Central

Moreno, Ximena; Albala, Cecilia; Lera, Lydia; Sánchez, Hugo; Fuentes-García, Alejandra; Dangour, Alan D.

2017-01-01

Background Previous studies on the role of gender in the association between self-rated health and mortality have shown contrasting results. This study was aimed to determine the importance of gender in the association between self-rated health and mortality among older people in Santiago, Chile. Methods A 10 year follow-up of 1066 people aged 60 or more, from the Chilean cohort of the Study of Health, Ageing and Well-Being. Self-rated health was assessed in face to face interviews through a single general question, along with socio-demographic and health status information. Cox proportional hazards and flexible parametric models for survival analyses were employed. Results By the end of follow-up, 30.7% of women and 39.4% of men died. Adjusted hazard ratio of poor self-rated health, compared to good self-rated health, was 1.92(95% CI 1.29–2.86). In models stratified by gender, an increased risk of mortality was observed among women who rated their health as poor (HR = 2.21, 95% CI 1.43–3.40), but not among men (HR = 1.04, 95% CI 0.58–1.86). Age was associated with mortality in both groups; for men, functional limitation and underweight were also risk factors and obesity was a protective factor. Conclusions Compared to older women who rated their health as good, older women who rated their health as poor had a 2 fold increased risk of mortality over the subsequent 10 years. These findings stress the importance of considering a gender perspective into health programmes, including those focused on older people, in order to address the different elements that increase, on the long run, the risk of dying among older women and men. PMID:28719627

Increasing Neonatal Mortality among Palestine Refugees in the Gaza Strip

PubMed Central

van den Berg, Maartje M.; Madi, Haifa H.; Khader, Ali; Hababeh, Majed; Zeidan, Wafa’a; Wesley, Hannah; Abd El-Kader, Mariam; Maqadma, Mohamed; Seita, Akihiro

2015-01-01

Background The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has periodically estimated infant mortality rates among Palestine refugees in Gaza. These surveys have recorded a decline from 127 per 1000 live births in 1960 to 20.2 in 2008. Methods We used the same preceding-birth technique as in previous surveys. All multiparous mothers who came to the 22 UNRWA health centres to register their last-born child for immunization were asked if their preceding child was alive or dead. We based our target sample size on the infant mortality rate in 2008 and included 3128 mothers from August until October 2013. We used multiple logistic regression analyses to identify predictors of infant mortality. Findings Infant mortality in 2013 was 22.4 per 1000 live births compared with 20.2 in 2008 (p = 0.61), and this change reflected a statistically significant increase in neonatal mortality (from 12.0 to 20.3 per 1000 live births, p = 0.01). The main causes of the 65 infant deaths were preterm birth (n = 25, 39%), congenital anomalies (n = 19, 29%), and infections (n = 12, 19%). Risk factors for infant death were preterm birth (OR 9.88, 3.98–24.85), consanguinity (2.41, 1.35–4.30) and high-risk pregnancies (3.09, 1.46–6.53). Conclusion For the first time in five decades, mortality rates have increased among Palestine refugee newborns in Gaza. The possible causes of this trend may include inadequate neonatal care. We will estimate infant and neonatal mortality rates again in 2015 to see if this trend continues and, if so, to assess how it can be reversed. PMID:26241479

Trends in mortality from coronary heart and cerebrovascular diseases in the Americas: 1970–2000

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, T; Malvezzi, M; Chatenoud, L; Bosetti, C; Levi, F; Negri, E

2006-01-01

Objective To describe trends in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) over the period 1970 to 2000 in the Americas. Methods Age standardised mortality rates were derived from the World Health Organization database and grouped according to the International classification of diseases, ninth revision. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify changes in trends. Results In the USA and Canada, CHD mortality rates declined by about 60% in both sexes. In Latin America, falls in CHD mortality were observed for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, and Puerto Rico. In 2000, mortality rates among men were highest in Venezuela (137.3/100 000) and lowest (apart from Ecuador) in Argentina (63.5/100 000). For women, the rates were highest in Cuba (79.4/100 000) and lowest in Argentina (26.5/100 000). For CVA mortality, a decline by about 60% was observed in the USA and Canada for both sexes. The falls were smaller (about −25% to −40% among men and −20% to −50% among women) in Puerto Rico, Argentina, Chile, and Costa Rica and only minor in Ecuador, Mexico, and Venezuela. Around 2000, CVA mortality in Latin America was highest in Brazil (85.5/100 000 among men and 61.7/100 000 among women) and lowest in Puerto Rico (29.3/100 000 among men and 24.1/100 000 among women). Conclusions Recent falls in CHD and CVA were less favourable in Latin America than in the USA and Canada. This may reflect unfavourable changes in nutrition (including obesity), physical activity, and smoking in most Latin American countries, together with less effective control of hypertension and management of the diseases. PMID:16537758

Do Mothers with Lower Socioeconomic Status Contribute to the Rate of All-Cause Child Mortality in Kazakhstan?

PubMed Central

Yu, Fei; Yan, Ziqi; Pu, Run

2018-01-01

Background This study aimed to explore whether or not mothers with higher educational and wealth status report lower rate of child mortality compared to those with less advantageous socioeconomic situation. Methods Data used were cross-sectional and collected from Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey in Kazakhstan conducted in 2015. Subjects experiencing childbirth were 9278 women aging between 15 and 49 years. The associations between maternal education and household wealth status with child mortality were examined by multivariate analytical methods. Results The overall prevalence of child mortality was 6.7%, with noticeable variations across the different regions. Compared with women who had the highest educational status, those with upper and lower secondary were 1.47 and 1.89 times more likely to experience child death. Women in the lowest and second lowest wealth quintile had 2.74 and 2.68 times higher odds of experiencing child death compared with those in the richest wealth status households. Conclusions Policy makers pay special attention to improving socioeconomic status of the mothers in an effort to reduce child mortality in the country. Women living in the disadvantaged regions with poor access to quality health care services should be regarded as a top priority. PMID:29651427

Estimation of maternal and neonatal mortality at the subnational level in Liberia.

PubMed

Moseson, Heidi; Massaquoi, Moses; Bawo, Luke; Birch, Linda; Dahn, Bernice; Zolia, Yah; Barreix, Maria; Gerdts, Caitlin

2014-11-01

To establish representative local-area baseline estimates of maternal and neonatal mortality using a novel adjusted sisterhood method. The status of maternal and neonatal health in Bomi County, Liberia, was investigated in June 2013 using a population-based survey (n=1985). The standard direct sisterhood method was modified to account for place and time of maternal death to enable calculation of subnational estimates. The modified method of measuring maternal mortality successfully enabled the calculation of area-specific estimates. Of 71 reported deaths of sisters, 18 (25.4%) were due to pregnancy-related causes and had occurred in the past 3 years in Bomi County. The estimated maternal mortality ratio was 890 maternal deaths for every 100 000 live births (95% CI, 497-1301]. The neonatal mortality rate was estimated to be 47 deaths for every 1000 live births (95% CI, 42-52). In total, 322 (16.9%) of 1900 women with accurate age data reported having had a stillbirth. The modified direct sisterhood method may be useful to other countries seeking a more regionally nuanced understanding of areas in which neonatal and maternal mortality levels still need to be reduced to meet Millennium Development Goals. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related mortality in Florida: Time-series analyses from 1969–2004

PubMed Central

Maldonado-Molina, Mildred M.; Wagenaar, Alexander C.

2010-01-01

Background Over a hundred studies have established the effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on sales and drinking behaviors. Yet, relatively few studies have examined effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related mortality. We evaluated effects of multiple changes in alcohol tax rates in the State of Florida from 1969–2004 on disease (not injury) mortality. Methods A time-series quasi-experimental research design was used, including non-alcohol deaths within Florida and other states’ rates of alcohol-related mortality for comparison. A total of 432 monthly observations of mortality in Florida were examined over the 36-year period. Analyses included ARIMA, fixed-effects, and random effects models, including a noise model, tax independent variables, and structural covariates. Results We found significant reductions in mortality related to chronic heavy alcohol consumption following legislatively induced increases in alcohol taxes in Florida. The frequency of deaths (t=−2.73, p=.007) and the rate per population (t=−2.06, p=.04) declined significantly. The elasticity effect estimate is −0.22 (t=−1.88, p=.06), indicating a 10% increase in tax is associated with a 2.2% decline in deaths. Conclusions Increased alcohol taxes are associated with significant and sizable reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality in Florida. Results indicate that 600–800 lives per year could be saved if real tax rates were returned to 1983 levels (when the last tax increase occurred). Findings highlight the role of tax policy as an effective means for reducing deaths associated with chronic heavy alcohol use. PMID:20659073

Association between adherence to an antimicrobial stewardship program and mortality among hospitalised cancer patients with febrile neutropaenia: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Initial management of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropaenia (FN) comprises empirical therapy with a broad-spectrum antimicrobial. Currently, there is sufficient evidence to indicate which antibiotic regimen should be administered initially. However, no randomized trial has evaluated whether adherence to an antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) results in lower rates of mortality in this setting. The present study sought to assess the association between adherence to an ASP and mortality among hospitalised cancer patients with FN. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study in a single tertiary hospital from October 2009 to August 2011. All adult patients who were admitted to the haematology ward with cancer and FN were followed up for 28 days. ASP adherence to the initial antimicrobial prescription was determined. The mortality rates of patients who were treated with antibiotics according to the ASP protocol were compared with those of patients treated with other antibiotic regimens. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score were used to estimate 28-day mortality risk. Results A total of 307 FN episodes in 169 subjects were evaluated. The rate of adherence to the ASP was 53%. In a Cox regression analysis, adjusted for propensity scores and other potential confounding factors, ASP adherence was independently associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio, 0.36; 95% confidence interval, 0.14–0.92). Conclusions Antimicrobial selection is important for the initial management of patients with FN, and adherence to the ASP, which calls for the rational use of antibiotics, was associated with lower mortality rates in this setting. PMID:24884397

Mortality Amenable to Health Care in European Union Countries and Its Limitations.

PubMed

Jarčuška, Peter; Janičko, Martin; Barták, Miroslav; Gavurová, Beáta; Vagašová, Tatiana

2017-12-01

The concept of amenable mortality is intended to assess health care system performance. It is defined as "premature deaths that should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care". The purpose of paper is to analyse differences in amenable mortality across European Union countries and to determine the associations between amenable mortality and life expectancy at birth. This is a cross-country and time trend analysis. Data on deaths by cause, and five-year age groups were obtained from the World Health Organization database for the 20 European Union countries, throughout the period from 2002 to 2013. The rates of amenable mortality were expressed by the age-standardised death rates per 100,000 inhabitants. We applied the method of direct standardisation using the European Standard Population. Throughout the explored period, the statistically significant variations of the age-standardised death rates in a relation to the European Union average fluctuated from 78.7 per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI 72.4-84.9) in France to 374.3 per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI 350.8-397.7) in Latvia. The leading causes of amenable mortality were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, and colorectal cancer that accounted for, respectively, 42.2%, 19.5%, and 11.3% of overall amenable mortality. As expected, statistically significant strong negative relationship (R 2 =0.95; ρ=-0.98) between amenable mortality and life expectancy at birth was proved by linear regression. The concept has several limitations relating to the selection of causes of death and setting age threshold over time, not consideration actually available health care resources in each country, as well as differences in the prevalence of diseases among countries. We found an explicit divide in amenable mortality rates between more developed countries of Western, Northern and Southern Europe, and less developed countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Increasing of amenable mortality may suggest deterioration in health care system performance. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017.

Predictors of mortality among patients undergoing colectomy for ischemic colitis: A population-based, United States study

PubMed Central

Sadler, Matthew D; Ravindran, Nikila C; Hubbard, James; Myers, Robert P; Ghosh, Subrata; Beck, Paul L; Dixon, Elijah; Ball, Chad; Prusinkiewicz, Chris; Heitman, Steven J; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Ischemic colitis is a potentially life-threatening condition that can require colectomy for management. OBJECTIVE: To assess independent predictors of mortality following colectomy for ischemic colitis using a nationally representative sample of hospitals in the United States. METHODS: The Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify all patients with a primary diagnosis of acute vascular insufficiency of the colon (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 557.0 and 557.9) who underwent a colectomy between 1993 and 2008. Incidence and mortality are described; multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine predictors of mortality. RESULTS: The incidence of colectomy for ischemic colitis was 1.43 cases (95% CI 1.40 cases to 1.47 cases) per 100,000. The incidence of colectomy for ischemic colitis increased by 3.1% per year (95% CI 2.3% to 3.9%) from 1993 to 2003, and stabilized thereafter. The postoperative mortality rate was 21.0% (95% CI 20.2% to 21.8%). After 1997, the mortality rate significantly decreased at an estimated annual rate of 4.5% (95% CI −6.3% to −2.7%). Mortality was associated with older age, 65 to 84 years (OR 5.45 [95% CI 2.91 to 10.22]) versus 18 to 34 years; health insurance, Medicaid (OR 1.69 [95% CI 1.29 to 2.21]) and Medicare (OR 1.33 [95% CI 1.12 to 1.58]) versus private health insurance; and comorbidities such as liver disease (OR 3.54 [95% CI 2.79 to 4.50]). Patients who underwent colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy (OR 0.78 [95% CI 0.65 to 0.93]) had lower mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Colectomy for ischemic colitis was associated with considerable mortality. The explanation for the stable incidence and decreasing mortality rates observed in the latter part of the present study should be explored in future studies. PMID:25575108

Long-term mortality among older adults with burn injury: a population-based study in Australia

PubMed Central

Boyd, James H; Rea, Suzanne; Randall, Sean M; Wood, Fiona M

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess if burn injury in older adults is associated with changes in long-term all-cause mortality and to estimate the increased risk of death attributable to burn injury. Methods We conducted a population-based matched longitudinal study – based on administrative data from Western Australia’s hospital morbidity data system and death register. A cohort of 6014 individuals who were aged at least 45 years when hospitalized for a first burn injury in 1980–2012 was identified. A non-injury comparison cohort, randomly selected from Western Australia’s electoral roll (n = 25 759), was matched to the patients. We used Kaplan–Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards regression to analyse the data and generated mortality rate ratios and attributable risk percentages. Findings For those hospitalized with burns, 180 (3%) died in hospital and 2498 (42%) died after discharge. Individuals with burn injury had a 1.4-fold greater mortality rate than those with no injury (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.3–1.5). In this cohort, the long-term mortality attributable to burn injury was 29%. Mortality risk was increased by both severe and minor burns, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1–1.9) and 2.1 (95% CI: 1.9–2.3), respectively. Conclusion Burn injury is associated with increased long-term mortality. In our study population, sole reliance on data on in-hospital deaths would lead to an underestimate of the true mortality burden associated with burn injury. PMID:26240461

Meeting the Institute of Medicine’s 2030 US Life Expectancy Target

PubMed Central

Kindig, David; Nobles, Jenna; Zidan, Moheb

2018-01-01

Objectives To quantify the improvement in US life expectancy required to reach parity with high-resource nations by 2030, to document historical precedent of this rate, and to discuss the plausibility of achieving this rate in the United States. Methods We performed a demographic analysis of secondary data in 5-year periods from 1985 to 2015. Results To achieve the United Nations projected mortality estimates for Western Europe in 2030, the US life expectancy must grow at 0.32% a year between 2016 and 2030. This rate has precedent, even in low-mortality populations. Over 204 country-periods examined, nearly half exhibited life-expectancy growth greater than 0.32%. Of the 51 US states observed, 8.2% of state-periods demonstrated life-expectancy growth that exceeded the 0.32% target. Conclusions Achieving necessary growth in life expectancy over the next 15 years despite historical precedent will be challenging. Much all-cause mortality is structured decades earlier and, at present, older-age mortality reductions in the United States are decelerating. Addressing mortality decline at all ages will require enhanced political will and a strong commitment to equity improvement in the US population. PMID:29161064

CNS infections in Greenland: A nationwide register-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Nordholm, Anne Christine; Søborg, Bolette; Andersson, Mikael; Hoffmann, Steen; Skinhøj, Peter; Koch, Anders

2017-01-01

Background Indigenous Arctic people suffer from high rates of infectious diseases. However, the burden of central nervous system (CNS) infections is poorly documented. This study aimed to estimate incidence rates and mortality of CNS infections among Inuits and non-Inuits in Greenland and in Denmark. Methods We conducted a nationwide cohort study using the populations of Greenland and Denmark 1990–2012. Information on CNS infection hospitalizations and pathogens was retrieved from national registries and laboratories. Incidence rates were estimated as cases per 100,000 person-years. Incidence rate ratios were calculated using log-linear Poisson-regression. Mortality was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Log Rank test. Results The incidence rate of CNS infections was twice as high in Greenland (35.6 per 100,000 person years) as in Denmark (17.7 per 100,000 person years), but equally high among Inuits in Greenland and Denmark (38.2 and 35.4, respectively). Mortality from CNS infections was 2 fold higher among Inuits (10.5%) than among non-Inuits (4.8%) with a fivefold higher case fatality rate in Inuit toddlers. Conclusion Overall, Inuits living in Greenland and Denmark suffer from twice the rate of CNS infections compared with non-Inuits, and Inuit toddlers carried the highest risk of mortality. Further studies regarding risk factors such as genetic susceptibility, life style and socioeconomic factors are warranted. PMID:28158207

Heart Rate Response to a Timed Walk & Cardiovascular Outcomes in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Girotra, Saket; Kitzman, Dalane W.; Kop, Willem J.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Gottdiener, John S.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES To determine the relationship between heart rate response during low-grade physical exertion (six-minute walk) with mortality and adverse cardiovascular outcomes in the elderly. METHODS Participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, who completed a six-minute walk test, were included. We used delta heart rate (difference between post-walk heart rate and resting heart rate) as a measure of chronotropic response and examined its association with 1) all-cause mortality and 2) incident coronary heart disease (CHD) event, using multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS We included 2224 participants (mean age 77±4 years; 60% women, 85% white). The average delta heart rate was 26 beats/min. Participants in the lowest tertile of delta heart rate (<20 beats/min) had higher risk-adjusted mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI][1.00, 1.40]) and incident CHD (HR 1.37; 95% CI[1.05, 1.78]) compared to subjects in the highest tertile (≥30 beats/min), with a significant linear trend across tertiles (P for trend <0.05 for both outcomes). This relationship was not significant after adjustment for distance walked. CONCLUSION Impaired chronotropic response during six-minute walk test was associated with an increased risk of mortality and incident CHD among the elderly. This association was attenuated after adjusting for distance walked. PMID:22722364

Laparoscopic transhiatal esophagectomy: outcomes.

PubMed

Tinoco, Renam; El-Kadre, Luciana; Tinoco, Augusto; Rios, Rodrigo; Sueth, Daniela; Pena, Felipe

2007-08-01

Laparoscopic transhiatal esophagectomy, indicated for benign and malignant esophageal diseases, is a complex operation, often associated with a high rate of morbidity and mortality. During the past decade this technique has became well accepted among specialized surgeons for the treatment of esophageal cancer, avoiding thoracotomy and reducing open access complications. The aim of the present study was to retrospectively analyze patients with esophageal cancer who underwent laparoscopic transhiatal esophagectomy. From November 1993 to August 2006, 78 patients underwent laparoscopic transhiatal esophagectomy. There were 68 cases of esophageal cancer (57 males and 21 females, age range = 28-73 years) with a predominant rate of squamous cell carcinoma (60.2%). The conversion rate was 6.4%. The mean operative time was 153 min with a 12.8% rate of cervical leak and a postoperative (30-day) mortality rate of 5.1%. The four-year survival rate was 19% as determined within a subgroup of 21 patients whose followup during the period was possible. Laparoscopic transhiatal esophagectomy is a safe alternative for experienced professionals. This access can improve mortality, hospital stay, and other outcomes when compared with open methods.

Who Died, Where? Quantification of Drought-Induced Tree Mortality in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwantes, A.; Swenson, J. J.; Johnson, D. M.; Domec, J. C.; Jackson, R. B.

2014-12-01

During 2011, Texas experienced a severe drought that killed millions of trees across the state. Drought-induced tree mortality can have significant ecological impacts and is expected to increase with climate change. We identify methods to quantify tree mortality in central Texas by using remotely sensed images before and after the drought at multiple spatial resolutions. Fine-scale tree mortality maps were created by classifying 1-m orthophotos from the National Agriculture Imagery Program. These classifications showed a high correlation with field estimates of percent canopy loss (RMSE = 2%; R2=0.9), and were thus used to calibrate coarser scale 30-m Landsat imagery. Random Forest, a machine learning method, was applied to obtain sub-pixel estimates of tree mortality. Traditional per-pixel classification techniques can map mortality of whole stands of trees (e.g. fire). However, these methods are often inadequate in detecting subtle changes in land cover, such as those associated with drought-induced tree mortality, which is often a widespread but scattered disturbance. Our method is unique, because it is capable of mapping death of individual canopies within a pixel. These 30-m tree mortality maps were then used to identify ecological systems most impacted by the drought and edaphic factors that control spatial distributions of tree mortality across central Texas. Ground observations coupled with our remote sensing analyses revealed that the majority of the mortality was Juniperus ashei. From a physiological standpoint this is surprising, because J. ashei is a drought-resistant tree. However, over the last century, this species has recently encroached into many areas previously dominated by grassland. Also, J. ashei tends to occupy landscape positions with lower available water storage, which could explain its high mortality rate. Predominantly tree mortality occurred in dry landscape positions (e.g. areas dominated by shallow soils, a low compound topographic index, and a high heat index). As increases in extreme drought events are predicted to occur with climate change, it will become more important to establish methods capable of detecting associated drought-induced tree mortality, to recognize vulnerable ecological systems, and to identify edaphic factors that predispose trees to mortality.

Equity and geography: the case of child mortality in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Bauze, Anna E; Tran, Linda N; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Firth, Sonja; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Hodge, Andrew; Lopez, Alan D

2012-01-01

Recent assessments show continued decline in child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG), yet complete subnational analyses remain rare. This study aims to estimate under-five mortality in PNG at national and subnational levels to examine the importance of geographical inequities in health outcomes and track progress towards Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4. We performed retrospective data validation of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2006 using 2000 Census data, then applied advanced indirect methods to estimate under-five mortality rates between 1976 and 2000. The DHS 2006 was found to be unreliable. Hence we used the 2000 Census to estimate under-five mortality rates at national and subnational levels. During the period under study, PNG experienced a slow reduction in national under-five mortality from approximately 103 to 78 deaths per 1,000 live births. Subnational analyses revealed significant disparities between rural and urban populations as well as inter- and intra-regional variations. Some of the provinces that performed the best (worst) in terms of under-five mortality included the districts that performed worst (best), with district-level under-five mortality rates correlating strongly with poverty levels and access to services. The evidence from PNG demonstrates substantial within-province heterogeneity, suggesting that under-five mortality needs to be addressed at subnational levels. This is especially relevant in countries, like PNG, where responsibility for health services is devolved to provinces and districts. This study presents the first comprehensive estimates of under-five mortality at the district level for PNG. The results demonstrate that for countries that rely on few data sources even greater importance must be given to the quality of future population surveys and to the exploration of alternative options of birth and death surveillance.

Effects of alcohol taxes on alcohol-related disease mortality in New York State from 1969 to 2006

PubMed Central

Delcher, Chris; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred M.; Wagenaar, Alexander C.

2013-01-01

Objective The relationship of increased alcohol taxes to reductions in alcohol-related harm is well established. Few studies, however, have examined the effects of sudden decreases in alcohol tax rates or effects of narrow tax changes limited to specific beverage types. In the current study, we: (1) examine whether tax increases on spirits have similar effects in reducing alcohol-related disease mortality as increasing taxes on all types of alcoholic beverages simultaneously, and (2) evaluate effects of beer-specific tax decreases in New York State on mortality. Method We used a time-series, quasi-experimental research design, including non-alcohol deaths within New York State and other states’ rates of alcohol-related disease mortality for comparison. The dataset included 456 monthly observations of mortality in New York State over a 38-year period (1969–2006). We used a random-effects approach and included several other important covariates. Results Alcohol-related disease mortality declined by 7.0% after a 1990 tax increase for spirits and beer. A spirits-only tax increase (in 1972) was not significantly associated with mortality but a data anomaly increased error in this effect estimate. Small tax decreases on beer between 1996 and 2006 had no measurable effect on mortality. Doubling the beer tax from $0.11 to $0.22 per gallon, a return to New York State’s 1990 levels, would decrease deaths by an estimated 250 deaths per year. Conclusions Excise tax increases on beer and spirits were associated with reductions in alcohol-related disease mortality. Modifying tax rates on a single beverage type does not appear to be as effective as doing so on multiple alcoholic beverages simultaneously. In New York, small decreases in beer taxes were not significantly associated with alcohol-related disease mortality. PMID:22436591

Trend of oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality in Brazil in the period of 2002 to 2013

PubMed Central

Perea, Lillia Magali Estrada; Peres, Marco Aurélio; Boing, Antonio Fernando; Antunes, José Leopoldo Ferreira

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the trend of oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality rates in the period of 2002 to 2013 in Brazil according to sex, anatomical site, and macroregion of the country. METHODS The mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information System and the population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The trend of the rates standardized by sex and age was calculated using the Prais-Winsten estimation, and we obtained the annual percentage change and the respective 95% confidence intervals, analyzed according to sex, macroregion, and anatomical site. RESULTS The average coefficient of oral cancer mortality was 1.87 per 100,000 inhabitants and it remained stable during the study period. The coefficient of pharyngeal cancer mortality was 2.04 per 100,000 inhabitants and it presented an annual percentage change of -2.6%. Approximately eight in every 10 deaths occurred among men. There was an increase in the rates of oral cancer in the Northeast region (annual percentage change of 6.9%) and a decrease in the Southeast region (annual percentage change of -2.9%). Pharyngeal cancer mortality decreased in the Southeast and South regions with annual percentage change of -4.8% and -5.1% respectively. Cancer mortality for tonsil, other major salivary glands, hypopharynx, and other and unspecified parts of mouth and pharynx showed a decreasing trend while the other sites presented stability. CONCLUSIONS Pharyngeal cancer mortality decreased in the period of 2002 to 2013. Oral cancer increased only in the Northeast region. Mortality for tonsil cancer, other major salivary glands, hypopharynx, and other and ill-defined sites in the lip, oral cavity, and pharynx decreased. PMID:29412371

General outcomes and risk factors for minor and major amputations in Brazil.

PubMed

Leite, Jose O; Costa, Leandro O; Fonseca, Walter M; Souza, Debora U; Goncalves, Barbara C; Gomes, Gabriela B; Cruz, Lucas A; Nister, Nilder; Navarro, Tulio P; Bath, Jonathan; Dardik, Alan

2018-06-01

Objectives Major and minor amputations are associated with significant rates of mortality. However, little is known about the impact of unplanned redo-amputation during the same hospitalization on outcomes. The objectives of this study were to identify the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality after both major and minor amputations as well as the results of unplanned redo-amputation on outcome. Methods Retrospective study of 342 consecutive patients who were treated with lower extremity amputation in Brazil between January 2013 and October 2014. Results The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in major compared to minor amputation (25.6% vs. 4.1%; p < 0.0001). Whereas chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and planned staged amputation predicted in-hospital mortality after major amputation, age, and congestive heart failure predicted mortality after minor amputation. The white blood cell count predicted in-hospital mortality following both major and minor amputation. However, postoperative infection predicted in-hospital mortality only following major amputation. Conclusions In-hospital mortality was high after major amputations. Unplanned redo-amputation was not a predictor of in-hospital mortality after major or minor amputation. Planned staged amputation was associated with reduced survival after major but not minor amputation. Postoperative infection predicted mortality after major amputation. Systemic diseases and postoperative white blood cell were associated with in-hospital mortality. This study suggests a possible link between a pro-inflammatory state and increased in-hospital mortality following amputation.

No evidence of nonlinear effects of predator density, refuge availability, or body size of prey on prey mortality rates.

PubMed

Simkins, Richard M; Belk, Mark C

2017-08-01

Predator density, refuge availability, and body size of prey can all affect the mortality rate of prey. We assume that more predators will lead to an increase in prey mortality rate, but behavioral interactions between predators and prey, and availability of refuge, may lead to nonlinear effects of increased number of predators on prey mortality rates. We tested for nonlinear effects in prey mortality rates in a mesocosm experiment with different size classes of western mosquitofish ( Gambusia affinis ) as the prey, different numbers of green sunfish ( Lepomis cyanellus ) as the predators, and different levels of refuge. Predator number and size class of prey, but not refuge availability, had significant effects on the mortality rate of prey. Change in mortality rate of prey was linear and equal across the range of predator numbers. Each new predator increased the mortality rate by about 10% overall, and mortality rates were higher for smaller size classes. Predator-prey interactions at the individual level may not scale up to create nonlinearity in prey mortality rates with increasing predator density at the population level.

A review of cultural influence on maternal mortality in the developing world.

PubMed

Evans, Emily C

2013-05-01

identify research examining the effect of culture on maternal mortality rates. literature review of CINAHL, Cochrane, PsychInfo, OVID Medline and Web of Science databases. developing countries with typically higher rates of maternal mortality. women, birth attendants, family members, nurse midwives, health-care workers, and community members. reviews, qualitative and mixed-methods research have identified components of culture that have a direct impact on maternal mortality. Examples of culture are given in the text and categorised according to the way in which they impact maternal mortality. cultural customs, practices, beliefs and values profoundly influence women's behaviours during the perinatal period and in some cases increase the likelihood of maternal death in childbirth. The four ways in which culture may increase MMR are as follows: directly harmful acts, inaction, use of care and social status. understanding the specifics of how the culture surrounding childbirth contributes to maternal mortality can assist nurses, midwives and other health-care workers in providing culturally competent care and designing effective programs to help decrease MMR, especially in the developing world. Interventions designed without accounting for these cultural factors are likely to be less effective in reducing maternal mortality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Cancer mortality trends in Mexico, 1980-2011].

PubMed

Torres-Sánchez, Luisa E; Rojas-Martínez, Rosalba; Escamilla-Núñez, Consuelo; de la Vara-Salazar, Elvia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo

2014-01-01

To evaluate trends in cancer mortality in Mexico between 1980-2011. Through direct method and using World Population 2010 as standard population, mortality rates for all cancers and the 15 most frequent locations, adjusted for age and sex were calculated. Trends in mortality rates and annual percentage change for each type of cancer were estimated by joinpoint regression model. As a result of the reduction in mortality from lung cancer (-3.2% -1.8% in men and in women), stomach (-2.1% -2.4% in men and in women) and cervix (-4.7%); since 2004 a significant (~1% per year) decline was observed in cancer mortality in general, in all ages, and in the group of 35-64 years of both sexes. Other cancers such as breast and ovarian cancer in women; as well as for prostate cancer in men, showed a steady increase. Some of the reductions in cancer mortality may be partially attributed to the effectiveness of prevention programs. However, adequate records of population-based cancer are needed to assess the real impact of these programs; as well as designing and evaluating innovative interventions to develop more cost-effective prevention policies.

Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

PubMed

Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

2015-04-01

We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

The German East-West Mortality Difference: Two Crossovers Driven by Smoking.

PubMed

Vogt, Tobias; van Raalte, Alyson; Grigoriev, Pavel; Myrskylä, Mikko

2017-06-01

Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, mortality was considerably higher in the former East Germany than in West Germany. The gap narrowed rapidly after German reunification. The convergence was particularly strong for women, to the point that Eastern women aged 50-69 now have lower mortality despite lower incomes and worse overall living conditions. Prior research has shown that lower smoking rates among East German female cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s were a major contributor to this crossover. However, after 1990, smoking behavior changed dramatically, with higher smoking intensity observed among women in the eastern part of Germany. We forecast the impact of this changing smoking behavior on East-West mortality differences and find that the higher smoking rates among younger East German cohorts will reverse their contemporary mortality advantage. Mortality forecasting methods that do not account for smoking would, perhaps misleadingly, forecast a growing mortality advantage for East German women. Experience from other countries shows that smoking can be effectively reduced by strict anti-smoking policies. Instead, East Germany is becoming an example warning of the consequences of weakening anti-smoking policies and changing behavioral norms.

Neonatal health in Nepal: analysis of absolute and relative inequalities and impact of current efforts to reduce neonatal mortality

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Nepal has made substantial progress in reducing under-five mortality and is on track to achieve Millennium Development Goal 4, but advances in neonatal health are less encouraging. The objectives of this study were to assess relative and absolute inequalities in neonatal mortality over time, and to review experience with major programs to promote neonatal health. Methods Using four nationally representative surveys conducted in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011, we calculated neonatal mortality rates for Nepal and for population groups based on child sex, geographical and socio-economic variables using a true cohort log probability approach. Inequalities based on different variables and years were assessed using rate differences (rd) and rate ratios (rr); time trends in neonatal mortality were measured using the annual rate of reduction. Through literature searches and expert consultation, information on Nepalese policies and programs implemented since 1990 and directly or indirectly attempting to reduce neonatal mortality was compiled. Data on timeline, coverage and effectiveness were extracted for major programs. Results The annual rate of reduction for neonatal mortality between 1996 and 2011 (2.8 percent per annum) greatly lags behind the achievements in under-five and infant mortality, and varies across population groups. For the year 2011, stark absolute and relative inequalities in neonatal mortality exist in relation to wealth status (rd = 21.4, rr = 2.2); these are less pronounced for other measures of socio-economic status, child sex and urban–rural residence, ecological and development region. Among many efforts to promote child and maternal health, three established programs and two pilot programs emerged as particularly relevant to reducing neonatal mortality. While these were designed based on national and international evidence, information about coverage of different population groups and effectiveness is limited. Conclusion Neonatal mortality varies greatly by socio-demographic variables. This study clearly shows that much remains to be achieved in terms of reducing neonatal mortality across different socio-economic, ethnic and geographical population groups in Nepal. In moving forward it will be important to scale up programs of proven effectiveness, conduct in-depth evaluation of promising new approaches, target unreached and hard-to-reach populations, and maximize use of financial and personnel resources through integration across programs. PMID:24373558

The incidence and mortality of lung cancer and their relationship to development in Asia

PubMed Central

Pakzad, Reza; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Ghoncheh, Mahshid; Pakzad, Iraj

2015-01-01

Background Lung cancer is the deadliest cancer worldwide and the most common cancer in Asia. It is necessary to get information on epidemiology and inequalities related to incidence and mortality of the cancer to use for planning and further research. This study aimed to investigate epidemiology and inequality of incidence and mortality from lung cancer in Asia. Methods The study was conducted based on data from the world data of cancer and the World Bank [including the Human Development Index (HDI) and its components]. The incidence and mortality rates, and cancer distribution maps were drawn for Asian countries. To analyze data, correlation test between incidence and death rates, and HDI and its components at significant was used in the significant level of 0.05 using SPSS software. Results A total of 1,033,881 incidence (71.13% were males and 28.87% were females. Sex ratio was 2.46) and 936,051 death (71.45% in men and 28.55% in women. The sex ratio was 2.50) recorded in Asian countries in 2012. Five countries with the highest standardized incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer were Democratic Republic of Korea, China, Armenia, Turkey, and Timor-Leste, respectively. Correlation between HDI and standardized incidence rate was 0.345 (P=0.019), in men 0.301 (P=0.042) and in women 0.3 (P=0.043); also between HDI and standardized mortality rate 0.289 (P=0.052), in men 0.265 (P=0.075) and in women 0.200 (P=0.182). Conclusions The incidence of lung cancer has been increasing in Asia. It is high in men. Along with development, the incidence and mortality from lung cancer increases. It seems necessary to study reasons and factors of increasing the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Asian countries. PMID:26798586

Utility of local health registers in measuring perinatal mortality: A case study in rural Indonesia

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Perinatal mortality is an important indicator of obstetric and newborn care services. Although the vast majority of global perinatal mortality is estimated to occur in developing countries, there is a critical paucity of reliable data at the local level to inform health policy, plan health care services, and monitor their impact. This paper explores the utility of information from village health registers to measure perinatal mortality at the sub district level in a rural area of Indonesia. Methods A retrospective pregnancy cohort for 2007 was constructed by triangulating data from antenatal care, birth, and newborn care registers in a sample of villages in three rural sub districts in Central Java, Indonesia. For each pregnancy, birth outcome and first week survival were traced and recorded from the different registers, as available. Additional local death records were consulted to verify perinatal mortality, or identify deaths not recorded in the health registers. Analyses were performed to assess data quality from registers, and measure perinatal mortality rates. Qualitative research was conducted to explore knowledge and practices of village midwives in register maintenance and reporting of perinatal mortality. Results Field activities were conducted in 23 villages, covering a total of 1759 deliveries that occurred in 2007. Perinatal mortality outcomes were 23 stillbirths and 15 early neonatal deaths, resulting in a perinatal mortality rate of 21.6 per 1000 live births in 2007. Stillbirth rates for the study population were about four times the rates reported in the routine Maternal and Child Health program information system. Inadequate awareness and supervision, and alternate workload were cited by local midwives as factors resulting in inconsistent data reporting. Conclusions Local maternal and child health registers are a useful source of information on perinatal mortality in rural Indonesia. Suitable training, supervision, and quality control, in conjunction with computerisation to strengthen register maintenance can provide routine local area measures of perinatal mortality for health policy, and monitoring of newborn care interventions. Similar efforts are required to strengthen routine health data in all developing countries, to guide planned progress towards reduction in the local, national and international burden from perinatal mortality. PMID:21410993

Anopheles sinensis mosquito insecticide resistance: comparison of three mosquito sample collection and preparation methods and mosquito age in resistance measurements.

PubMed

Xu, Tielong; Zhong, Daibin; Tang, Linhua; Chang, Xuelian; Fu, Fengyang; Yan, Guiyun; Zheng, Bin

2014-01-28

Insecticide resistance monitoring in malaria mosquitoes is essential for guiding the rational use of insecticides in vector control programs. Resistance bioassay is the first step for insecticide monitoring and it lays an important foundation for molecular examination of resistance mechanisms. In the literature, various mosquito sample collection and preparation methods have been used, but how mosquito sample collection and preparation methods affect insecticide susceptibility bioassay results is largely unknown. The objectives of this study were to determine whether mosquito sample collection and preparation methods affected bioassay results, which may cause incorrect classification of mosquito resistance status. The study was conducted in Anopheles sinensis mosquitoes in two study sites in central China. Three mosquito sample collection and preparation methods were compared for insecticide susceptibility, kdr frequencies and metabolic enzyme activities: 1) adult mosquitoes collected from the field; 2) F1 adults from field collected, blood-fed mosquitoes; and 3) adult mosquitoes reared from field collected larvae. Mosquito sample collection and preparation methods significantly affected mortality rates in the standard WHO tube resistance bioassay. Mortality rate of field-collected female adults was 10-15% higher than in mosquitoes reared from field-collected larvae and F1 adults from field collected blood-fed females. This pattern was consistent in mosquitoes from the two study sites. High kdr mutation frequency (85-95%) with L1014F allele as the predominant mutation was found in our study populations. Field-collected female adults consistently exhibited the highest monooxygenase and GST activities. The higher mortality rate observed in the field-collected female mosquitoes may have been caused by a mixture of mosquitoes of different ages, as older mosquitoes were more susceptible to deltamethrin than younger mosquitoes. Female adults reared from field-collected larvae in resistance bioassays are recommended to minimize the effect of confounding factors such as mosquito age and blood feeding status so that more reliable and reproducible mortality may be obtained.

What Pertussis Mortality Rates Make Maternal Acellular Pertussis Immunization Cost-Effective in Low- and Middle-Income Countries? A Decision Analysis

PubMed Central

Russell, Louise B.; Pentakota, Sri Ram; Toscano, Cristiana Maria; Cosgriff, Ben; Sinha, Anushua

2016-01-01

Background. Despite longstanding infant vaccination programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), pertussis continues to cause deaths in the youngest infants. A maternal monovalent acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine, in development, could prevent many of these deaths. We estimated infant pertussis mortality rates at which maternal vaccination would be a cost-effective use of public health resources in LMICs. Methods. We developed a decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal aP immunization plus routine infant vaccination vs routine infant vaccination alone in Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Brazil. For a range of maternal aP vaccine prices, one-way sensitivity analyses identified the infant pertussis mortality rates required to make maternal immunization cost-effective by alternative benchmarks ($100, 0.5 gross domestic product [GDP] per capita, and GDP per capita per disability-adjusted life-year [DALY]). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided uncertainty intervals for these mortality rates. Results. Infant pertussis mortality rates necessary to make maternal aP immunization cost-effective exceed the rates suggested by current evidence except at low vaccine prices and/or cost-effectiveness benchmarks at the high end of those considered in this report. For example, at a vaccine price of $0.50/dose, pertussis mortality would need to be 0.051 per 1000 infants in Bangladesh, and 0.018 per 1000 in Nigeria, to cost 0.5 per capita GDP per DALY. In Brazil, a middle-income country, at a vaccine price of $4/dose, infant pertussis mortality would need to be 0.043 per 1000 to cost 0.5 per capita GDP per DALY. Conclusions. For commonly used cost-effectiveness benchmarks, maternal aP immunization would be cost-effective in many LMICs only if the vaccine were offered at less than $1–$2/dose. PMID:27838677

[Incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in China, 2014].

PubMed

Li, H; Zheng, R S; Zhang, S W; Zeng, H M; Sun, K X; Xia, C F; Yang, Z X; Chen, W Q; He, J

2018-03-23

Objective: To estimate the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in China based on the cancer registration data in 2014, collected by the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR), and to provide support data for breast cancer prevention and control in China. Methods: There were 449 cancer registries submitting female breast cancer incidence and deaths data occurred in 2014 to NCCR. After evaluating the data quality, 339 registries' data were accepted for analysis and stratified by areas (urban/rural) and age group. Combined with data on national population in 2014, the nationwide incidence and mortality of female breast cancer were estimated. Chinese population census in 2000 and Segi's population were used for age-standardized incidence/mortality rates. Results: Qualified 339 cancer registries covered a total of 288 243 347 populations (144 061 915 in urban and 144 181 432 in rural areas) in 2014. The morphology verified cases (MV%) accounted for 87.42% and 0.59% of incident cases were identified through death certifications only (DCO%), with mortality to incidence ratio of 0.24. The estimates of new breast cancer cases were about 278 900 in China in 2014, accounting for 16.51% of all new cases in female. The crude incidence rate, age-standardized rate of incidence by Chinese standard population (ASRIC), and age-standardized rate of incidence by world standard population (ASRIW) of breast cancer were 41.82/100 000, 30.69/100 000, and 28.77/100 000, respectively, with a cumulative incidence rate (0-74 age years old) of 3.12%. The crude incidence rates and ASRIC in urban areas were 49.94 per 100 000 and 34.85 per 100 000, respectively, whereas those were 31.72 per 100 000 and 24.89 per 100 000 in rural areas. The estimates of breast cancer deaths were about 66 000 in China in 2014, accounting for 7.82% of all the cancer-related deaths in female. The crude mortality rate, age-standardized rate of mortality by Chinese standard population(ASRMC) and age-standardized rate of mortality by world standard population (ASRMW) of breast cancer were 9.90/100 000, 6.53/100 000, and 6.35/100 000, respectively, with a cumulative mortality rate of 0.69%. The crude mortality rates and ASRMC in urban areas were 11.48 per 100 000 and 7.04 per 100 000, respectively, whereas those were 7.93 per 100 000 and 5.79 per 100 000 in rural areas. The incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer were higher in areas than those in rural areas. The age-specific incidence rates of breast cancer increased greatly after 20 years old and peaked at the age group of 55-60. The age-specific mortality rates increased rapidly with age, particularly after 25 years old. They remained at a relative stable level from 55 to 65 years of age, and then increased dramatically and peaked in the age group of 85 and above. Conclusions: Breast cancer is still one of the most common malignant tumor threatening to famale health in China. The disease is more prevalent in urban areas at the age group of 55-60. Comprehensive prevention and control strategies referring to local status and age groups should be carried out to reduce the burden of breast cancer.

The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence of the emerging virus and is moderated by immunity of past experience. In this study, we found that after immune escape, older age groups showed no further mortality reduction, despite their being the principal target of conventional influenza vaccines. Vaccines incorporating variants of pandemic viruses seem to provide little benefit to those previously immune. If attack rates truly are similar across pandemics, it must be the case that immunity to the pandemic virus does not prevent infection, but only mitigates the consequences. PMID:23234604

Early mortality experience in a large military cohort and a comparison of mortality data sources

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Complete and accurate ascertainment of mortality is critically important in any longitudinal study. Tracking of mortality is particularly essential among US military members because of unique occupational exposures (e.g., worldwide deployments as well as combat experiences). Our study objectives were to describe the early mortality experience of Panel 1 of the Millennium Cohort, consisting of participants in a 21-year prospective study of US military service members, and to assess data sources used to ascertain mortality. Methods A population-based random sample (n = 256,400) of all US military service members on service rosters as of October 1, 2000, was selected for study recruitment. Among this original sample, 214,388 had valid mailing addresses, were not in the pilot study, and comprised the group referred to in this study as the invited sample. Panel 1 participants were enrolled from 2001 to 2003, represented all armed service branches, and included active-duty, Reserve, and National Guard members. Crude death rates, as well as age- and sex-adjusted overall and age-adjusted, category-specific death rates were calculated and compared for participants (n = 77,047) and non-participants (n = 137,341) based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) files, and the Department of Defense Medical Mortality Registry, 2001-2006. Numbers of deaths identified by these three data sources, as well as the National Death Index, were compared for 2001-2004. Results There were 341 deaths among the participants for a crude death rate of 80.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 72.2,89.3) compared to 820 deaths and a crude death rate of 113.2 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 105.4, 120.9) for non-participants. Age-adjusted, category-specific death rates highlighted consistently higher rates among study non-participants. Although there were advantages and disadvantages for each data source, the VA mortality files identified the largest number of deaths (97%). Conclusions The difference in crude and adjusted death rates between Panel 1 participants and non-participants may reflect healthier segments of the military having the opportunity and choosing to participate. In our study population, mortality information was best captured using multiple data sources. PMID:20492737

International Monetary Fund Programs and Tuberculosis Outcomes in Post-Communist Countries

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David; King, Lawrence P; Basu, Sanjay

2008-01-01

Background Previous studies have indicated that International Monetary Fund (IMF) economic programs have influenced health-care infrastructure in recipient countries. The post-communist Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries experienced relatively similar political and economic changes over the past two decades, and participated in IMF programs of varying size and duration. We empirically examine how IMF programs related to changes in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates among these countries. Methods and Findings We performed multivariate regression of two decades of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality data against variables potentially influencing tuberculosis program outcomes in 21 post-communist countries for which comparative data are available. After correcting for confounding variables, as well as potential detection, selection, and ecological biases, we observed that participating in an IMF program was associated with increased tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates by 13.9%, 13.2%, and 16.6%, respectively. Each additional year of participation in an IMF program was associated with increased tuberculosis mortality rates by 4.1%, and each 1% increase in IMF lending was associated with increased tuberculosis mortality rates by 0.9%. On the other hand, we estimated a decrease in tuberculosis mortality rates of 30.7% (95% confidence interval, 18.3% to 49.5%) associated with exiting the IMF programs. IMF lending did not appear to be a response to worsened health outcomes; rather, it appeared to be a precipitant of such outcomes (Granger- and Sims-causality tests), even after controlling for potential political, socioeconomic, demographic, and health-related confounders. In contrast, non-IMF lending programs were connected with decreased tuberculosis mortality rates (−7.6%, 95% confidence interval, −1.0% to −14.1%). The associations observed between tuberculosis mortality and IMF programs were similar to those observed when evaluating the impact of IMF programs on tuberculosis incidence and prevalence. While IMF programs were connected with large reductions in generalized government expenditures, tuberculosis program coverage, and the number of physicians per capita, non-IMF lending programs were not significantly associated with these variables. Conclusions IMF economic reform programs are associated with significantly worsened tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates in post-communist Eastern European and former Soviet countries, independent of other political, socioeconomic, demographic, and health changes in these countries. Future research should attempt to examine how IMF programs may have related to other non-tuberculosis–related health outcomes. PMID:18651786

Has reducing fine particulate matter and ozone caused reduced mortality rates in the United States?

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony; Popken, Douglas A

2015-03-01

Between 2000 and 2010, air pollutant levels in counties throughout the United States changed significantly, with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) declining over 30% in some counties and ozone (O3) exhibiting large variations from year to year. This history provides an opportunity to compare county-level changes in average annual ambient pollutant levels to corresponding changes in all-cause (AC) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates over the course of a decade. Past studies have demonstrated associations and subsequently either interpreted associations causally or relied on subjective judgments to infer causation. This article applies more quantitative methods to assess causality. This article examines data from these "natural experiments" of changing pollutant levels for 483 counties in the 15 most populated US states using quantitative methods for causal hypothesis testing, such as conditional independence and Granger causality tests. We assessed whether changes in historical pollution levels helped to predict and explain changes in CVD and AC mortality rates. A causal relation between pollutant concentrations and AC or CVD mortality rates cannot be inferred from these historical data, although a statistical association between them is well supported. There were no significant positive associations between changes in PM2.5 or O3 levels and corresponding changes in disease mortality rates between 2000 and 2010, nor for shorter time intervals of 1 to 3 years. These findings suggest that predicted substantial human longevity benefits resulting from reducing PM2.5 and O3 may not occur or may be smaller than previously estimated. Our results highlight the potential for heterogeneity in air pollution health effects across regions, and the high potential value of accountability research comparing model-based predictions of health benefits from reducing air pollutants to historical records of what actually occurred. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Correlation of antidepressive agents and the mortality of end-stage renal disease.

PubMed

Tsai, Chia-Jui; Loh, El-Wui; Lin, Ching-Heng; Yu, Tung-Min; Chan, Chin-Hong; Lan, Tsuo-Hung

2012-05-01

Depression is one of the most common psychological disorders in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients and is associated with impaired quality of life and increased mortality and rate of hospitalization. We aimed to examine the contributions of depression and the use of antidepressive agents in the mortality of ESRD patients. A retrospective observatory study was conducted using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. Patients with newly diagnosed as ESRD during the year 2001 to 2007 were collected. A total of 2312 ESRD patients were identified in the database. Statistical analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of depression and exposure of antidepressive agents in mortality rates of ESRD patients. Diagnosis of depression did not influence mortality rate (mortality rate in patients with depression: 26.5%; mortality rate in patients without depression: 26.2%; P= 1.000). Those who had antidepressive agents exposure had significantly higher mortality rate (mortality rate: 32.3%) than those who did not (mortality rate: 24.5%) (P < 0.001). Our findings suggest that (i) the mortality rate of ESRD patients was not affected by the diagnosis of depression, and (ii) exposure of antidepressive agents in ESRD patients was associated with a higher mortality rate. The high mortality rate in ESRD patients exposed to antidepressive agents can be a bias by indication. Equally, a true contribution of the antidepressive agents cannot be ruled out and this needs clarification. © 2012 The Authors. Nephrology © 2012 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Opioid Overdose Deaths and Florida’s Crackdown on Pill Mills

PubMed Central

Richey, Matthew; McGinty, Emma E.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.; Barry, Colleen L.; Webster, Daniel W.

2016-01-01

Objectives. We examined the effect on opioid overdose mortality of Florida state laws and law enforcement operations targeting “pill mills.” Methods. We collected 2003 to 2012 mortality data from the Florida Department of Health and the North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics (the comparison state) to estimate changes in the rates of death from prescription opioid, heroin, or any opioid overdose. Results. Florida’s actions were associated with an estimated 1029 lives saved from prescription opioid overdose over a 34-month period. Estimated reductions in deaths grew over the intervention period, with rates per 100 000 population that were 0.6 lower in 2010, 1.8 lower in 2011, and 3.0 lower in 2012 than what would have been expected had the changes in mortality rate trends in Florida been the same as changes in trends in North Carolina. Florida’s mortality rates from heroin and total opioid overdose were also lower than anticipated relative to changes in trends in North Carolina. Conclusions. Findings from this study indicate that laws regulating pain clinics and enforcement of these laws may, in combination, reduce opioid overdose deaths. PMID:26691121

Mortality Due to Cardiovascular Disease Among Apollo Lunar Astronauts.

PubMed

Reynolds, Robert J; Day, Steven M

2017-05-01

Recent research has postulated increased cardiovascular mortality for astronauts who participated in the Apollo lunar missions. The conclusions, however, are based on small numbers of astronauts, are derived from methods with known weaknesses, and are not consistent with prior research. Records for NASA astronauts and U.S. Air Force astronauts were analyzed to produce standardized mortality ratios. Lunar astronauts were compared to astronauts who have never flown in space (nonflight astronauts), those who have only flown missions in low Earth orbit (LEO astronauts), and the U.S. general population. Lunar astronauts were significantly older at cohort entry than other astronaut group and lunar astronauts alive as of the end of 2015 were significantly older than nonflight astronauts and LEO astronauts. No significant differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates between astronaut groups was observed, though lunar astronauts were noted to be at significantly lower risk of death by CVD than are members of the U.S. general population (SMR = 13, 95% CI = 3-39). The differences in age structure between lunar and nonlunar astronauts and the deaths of LEO astronauts from external causes at young ages lead to confounding in proportional mortality studies of astronauts. When age and follow-up time are properly taken into account using cohort-based methods, no significant difference in CVD mortality rates is observed. Care should be taken to select the correct study design, outcome definition, exposure classification, and analysis when answering questions involving rare occupational exposures.Reynolds RJ, Day SM. Mortality due to cardiovascular disease among Apollo lunar astronauts. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(5):492-496.

Trends and social differentials in child mortality in Rwanda 1990–2010: results from three demographic and health surveys

PubMed Central

Musafili, Aimable; Essén, Birgitta; Baribwira, Cyprien; Binagwaho, Agnes; Persson, Lars-Åke; Selling, Katarina Ekholm

2015-01-01

Background Rwanda has embarked on ambitious programmes to provide equitable health services and reduce mortality in childhood. Evidence from other countries indicates that advances in child survival often have come at the expense of increasing inequity. Our aims were to analyse trends and social differentials in mortality before the age of 5 years in Rwanda from 1990 to 2010. Methods We performed secondary analyses of data from three Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2000, 2005 and 2010 in Rwanda. These surveys included 34 790 children born between 1990 and 2010 to women aged 15–49 years. The main outcome measures were neonatal mortality rates (NMR) and under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) over time, and in relation to mother's educational level, urban or rural residence and household wealth. Generalised linear mixed effects models and a mixed effects Cox model (frailty model) were used, with adjustments for confounders and cluster sampling method. Results Mortality rates in Rwanda peaked in 1994 at the time of the genocide (NMR 60/1000 live births, 95% CI 51 to 65; U5MR 238/1000 live births, 95% CI 226 to 251). The 1990s and the first half of the 2000s were characterised by a marked rural/urban divide and inequity in child survival between maternal groups with different levels of education. Towards the end of the study period (2005–2010) NMR had been reduced to 26/1000 (95% CI 23 to 29) and U5MR to 65/1000 (95% CI 61 to 70), with little or no difference between urban and rural areas, and household wealth groups, while children of women with no education still had significantly higher U5MR. Conclusions Recent reductions in child mortality in Rwanda have concurred with improved social equity in child survival. Current challenges include the prevention of newborn deaths. PMID:25870163

Amniotic fluid embolism mortality rate.

PubMed

Benson, Michael D

2017-11-01

The objective of this study was to determine the mortality rate of amniotic fluid embolism (AFE) using population-based studies and case series. A literature search was conducted using the two key words: 'amniotic fluid embolism (AFE)' AND 'mortality rate'. Thirteen population-based studies were evaluated, as well as 36 case series including at least two patients. The mortality rate from population-based studies varied from 11% to 44%. When nine population-based studies with over 17 000 000 live births were aggregated, the maternal mortality rate was 20.4%. In contrast, the mortality rate of AFE in case series varies from 0% to 100% with numerous rates in between. The AFE mortality rate in population-based studies varied from 11% to 44% with the best available evidence supporting an overall mortality rate of 20.4%. Data from case series should no longer be used as a basis for describing the lethality of AFE. © 2017 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Estimated mortality of adult HIV-infected patients starting treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

Yiannoutsos, Constantin Theodore; Johnson, Leigh Francis; Boulle, Andrew; Musick, Beverly Sue; Gsponer, Thomas; Balestre, Eric; Law, Matthew; Shepherd, Bryan E; Egger, Matthias

2012-01-01

Objective To provide estimates of mortality among HIV-infected patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy. Methods We report on the death rates from 122 925 adult HIV-infected patients aged 15 years or older from East, Southern and West Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America. We use two methods to adjust for biases in mortality estimation resulting from loss from follow-up, based on double-sampling methods applied to patient outreach (Kenya) and linkage with vital registries (South Africa), and apply these to mortality estimates in the other three regions. Age, gender and CD4 count at the initiation of therapy were the factors considered as predictors of mortality at 6, 12, 24 and >24 months after the start of treatment. Results Patient mortality was high during the first 6 months after therapy for all patient subgroups and exceeded 40 per 100 patient years among patients who started treatment at low CD4 count. This trend was seen regardless of region, demographic or disease-related risk factor. Mortality was under-reported by up to or exceeding 100% when comparing estimates obtained from passive monitoring of patient vital status. Conclusions Despite advances in antiretroviral treatment coverage many patients start treatment at very low CD4 counts and experience significant mortality during the first 6 months after treatment initiation. Active patient tracing and linkage with vital registries are critical in adjusting estimates of mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income settings. PMID:23172344

The effect of peer review on mortality rates.

PubMed

Krahwinkel, W; Schuler, E; Liebetrau, M; Meier-Hellmann, A; Zacher, J; Kuhlen, R

2016-10-01

Lowering of mortality rates in hospitals with mortality rates higher than accepted reference values for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), congestive heart failure (CHF), pneumonia, stroke, mechanical ventilation (MV) and colorectal surgery by using an external peer review process that identifies areas requiring rectification and implements protocols directed at improving these areas. Retrospective, observational, quality management study using administrative data to compare in-hospital mortality rates (pre and post an external peer review process that included adoption of improvement protocols) with reference values. German general hospitals of a large, private group. Hospitals with mortality rates higher than reference values. Peer review of medical records by experienced, outside physicians triggered by in-hospital mortality rates higher than expected. Inadequacies were identified, improvement protocols enforced and mortality rates subsequently re-examined. Mortality rates 1 year before and 1 year after peer review and protocol use. For AMI, CHF, pneumonia, stroke, MV and colorectal surgery, the mortality rates 1 year post-peer review were significantly decreased as compared to pre-peer review mortality rates. The standardized mortality ratio for all of the above diagnoses was 1.45, 1 year before peer review, and 0.97, 1 year after peer review. The absolute risk reduction of 7.3% translates into 710 deaths in this population which could have been prevented. Peer review triggered and conducted in the manner described here is associated with a significant lowering of in-hospital mortality rates in hospitals that previously had higher than expected mortality rates. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care.

Perioperative outcomes among patients with end-stage renal disease following coronary artery bypass surgery in the USA

PubMed Central

Parikh, Dipen S.; Swaminathan, Madhav; Archer, Laura E.; Inrig, Jula K.; Szczech, Lynda A.; Shaw, Andrew D.; Patel, Uptal D.

2010-01-01

Background. Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring chronic haemodialysis who undergo coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) are at significant risk for perioperative mortality. However, the impact of changes in ESRD patient volume and characteristics over time on operative outcomes is unclear. Methods. Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database (1988–03), we evaluated rates of CABG surgery with and without concurrent valve surgery among ESRD patients and outcomes including in-hospital mortality, and length of hospital stay. Multivariate regression models were used to account for patient characteristics and potential cofounders. Results. From 1988 to 2003, annual rates of CABG among ESRD patients doubled from 2.5 to 5 per 1000 patient-years. Concomitantly, patient case-mix changed to include patients with greater co-morbidities such as diabetes, hypertension and obesity (all P < 0.001). Nonetheless, among ESRD patients, in-hospital mortality rates declined nearly 6-fold from over 31% to 5.4% (versus 4.7% to 1.8% among non-ESRD), and the median length of in-hospital stay dropped in half from 25 to 13 days (versus 14 to 10 days among non-ESRD). Conclusions. Since 1988, an increasing number of patients with ESRD have been receiving CABG in the USA. Despite increasing co-morbidities, operative mortality rates and length of in-hospital stay have declined substantially. Nonetheless, mortality rates remain almost 3-fold higher compared to non-ESRD patients indicating a need for ongoing improvement. PMID:20103500

The Growth and Mortality Rate of Mullet (Mugil dussumieri) on Seagrass Beds of The Teluk Awur Bay, Jepara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinandita, L. K.; Riniatsih, I.; Irwani, I.

2018-02-01

Seagrass beds that have relatively high primary productivity are used as habitat for many marine species. Fish use seagrass as feeding, nursery, and spawning grounds. This research aimed to determinate the growth and mortality rates of mullet (Mugil dussumieri) on seagrass bed ecosystems of Teluk Awur Bay water, Jepara, Central Java. The descriptive method was applied in this research with the purposive method for sampling. Microsoft Excel software and FISAT II of FAO were used for data analyses, and the samples of 347 mullet (M. dussumieri) were taken from October until December 2016. The results of this research showed that length of fish ranges 8 - 28.9 cm with weight range 5 - 248 grams. The growth coefficient value (K) was 0.33 with asymptotic length (L∞) 30.24 cm, and the value of t was - 0.305, which will be reaching for 11 years. The rate of total mortality (Z) was 0.854 per year, the value of natural mortality (M) was 0.706 per year and the value of fishing mortality (F) was 0.148 per year. Exploitation ratio (E) was 0.173 per year, it indicated that only 17.3% of mullet’s (M. dussumieri) deaths in Teluk Awur Bay waters caused bycatch. It can be estimated that the death of mullet in Teluk Awur Bay waters affected more by the condition of the waters, in this case, the decreasing density of seagrass in research location is expected to affect the growth of mullet.

Local Breast Cancer Spatial Patterning: A Tool for Community Health Resource Allocation to Address Local Disparities in Breast Cancer Mortality

PubMed Central

Brantley-Sieders, Dana M.; Fan, Kang-Hsien; Deming-Halverson, Sandra L.; Shyr, Yu; Cook, Rebecca S.

2012-01-01

Despite available demographic data on the factors that contribute to breast cancer mortality in large population datasets, local patterns are often overlooked. Such local information could provide a valuable metric by which regional community health resources can be allocated to reduce breast cancer mortality. We used national and statewide datasets to assess geographical distribution of breast cancer mortality rates and known risk factors influencing breast cancer mortality in middle Tennessee. Each county in middle Tennessee, and each ZIP code within metropolitan Davidson County, was scored for risk factor prevalence and assigned quartile scores that were used as a metric to identify geographic areas of need. While breast cancer mortality often correlated with age and incidence, geographic areas were identified in which breast cancer mortality rates did not correlate with age and incidence, but correlated with additional risk factors, such as mammography screening and socioeconomic status. Geographical variability in specific risk factors was evident, demonstrating the utility of this approach to identify local areas of risk. This method revealed local patterns in breast cancer mortality that might otherwise be overlooked in a more broadly based analysis. Our data suggest that understanding the geographic distribution of breast cancer mortality, and the distribution of risk factors that contribute to breast cancer mortality, will not only identify communities with the greatest need of support, but will identify the types of resources that would provide the most benefit to reduce breast cancer mortality in the community. PMID:23028869

Mortality Rates in the General Irish Population Compared to Those with an Intellectual Disability from 2003 to 2012

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarron, Mary; Carroll, Rachael; Kelly, Caraiosa; McCallion, Philip

2015-01-01

Background:Historically, there has been higher and earlier mortality among people with intellectual disability as compared to the general population, but there have also been methodological problems and differences in the available studies. Method: Data were drawn from the 2012 National Intellectual Disability Database and the Census in Ireland. A…

Bacterial meningitis in children under 15 years of age in Nepal.

PubMed

Shrestha, Rajani Ghaju; Tandukar, Sarmila; Ansari, Shamshul; Subedi, Akriti; Shrestha, Anisha; Poudel, Rekha; Adhikari, Nabaraj; Basnyat, Shital Raj; Sherchand, Jeevan Bahadur

2015-08-19

Bacterial meningitis in children is a life-threatening problem resulting in severe morbidity and mortality. For the prompt initiation of antibacterial therapy, rapid and reliable diagnostic methods are of utmost importance. Therefore, this study was designed to find out the rate of bacterial pathogens of meningitis from suspected cases by performing conventional methods and latex agglutination. A descriptive type of study was carried out from May 2012 to April 2013. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens from 252 suspected cases of meningitis were subjected for Gram staining, bacterial culture and latex agglutination test. The identification of growth of bacteria was done following standard microbiological methods recommended by American Society for Microbiology. Antibiotic sensitivity testing was done by modified Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method. From the total 252 suspected cases, 7.2 % bacterial meningitis was revealed by Gram staining and culture methods whereas latex agglutination method detected 5.6 %. Gram-negative organisms contributed the majority of the cases (72.2 %) with Haemophilus influenzae as the leading pathogen for meningitis. Overall, 33.3 % mortality rate was found. In conclusion, a significant rate of bacterial meningitis was found in this study prompting concern for national wide surveillance.

[Gender and age dependent mortality from nervous diseases in Azerbaijan].

PubMed

Mamedbeyli, A K

2015-01-01

To assess age- and sex-related changes in the mortality from nervous diseases at the population level. Methods of descriptive statistics and analysis of qualitative traits were applied. We analyzed 13580 medical certificates of cause of death from nervous diseases (all classes of ICD-10). The mortality rate varied with age, the main trend of which was the dynamic growth. Age-specific mortality rates for men and women differed from each other: in most ages (20-24, 30-34, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 65-69), the likelihood of mortality was higher in men, and at the age of 5-9, 15-19, 60-64, 70 and more years in women. After the standardization of gender differences by age, the mortality risk of nervous illnesses disappeared (146.74 and 144.16 per 100 thousand for men and women, respectively).  There were significant differences in the proportion of nervous diseases of all-cause mortality among the population in the groups stratified by age and sex. It is believed that situational factors is a cause of actual prevailing of gender age- and sex-related mortality risks. Gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are characterized by the multidirectional dynamics of likelihood of mortality and specific weight of nervous diseases among all causes of mortality. The actual gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are generally caused by situational factors (different age structure and unequal level of the general mortality among male and female population) which disappear after standardization.

A retrospective study of factors influencing survival following surgery for gastric dilatation-volvulus syndrome in 306 dogs.

PubMed

Mackenzie, George; Barnhart, Mathew; Kennedy, Shawn; DeHoff, William; Schertel, Eric

2010-01-01

Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition in dogs that has been associated with high mortality rates in previous studies. Factors were evaluated in this study for their influence on overall and postoperative mortality in 306 confirmed cases of GDV between 2000 and 2004. The overall mortality rate was 10%, and the postoperative mortality rate was 6.1%. The factor that was associated with a significant increase in overall mortality was the presence of preoperative cardiac arrhythmias. Factors that were associated with a significant increase in postoperative mortality were postoperative cardiac arrhythmias, splenectomy, or splenectomy with partial gastric resection. The factor that was associated with a significant decrease in the overall mortality rate was time from presentation to surgery. This study documents that certain factors continue to affect the overall and postoperative mortality rates associated with GDV, but these mortality rates have decreased compared to previously reported rates.

Infant mortality trends and differences between American Indian/Alaska Native infants and white infants in the United States, 1989-1991 and 1998-2000.

PubMed

Tomashek, Kay M; Qin, Cheng; Hsia, Jason; Iyasu, Solomon; Barfield, Wanda D; Flowers, Lisa M

2006-12-01

To describe changes in infant mortality rates, including birthweight-specific rates and rates by age at death and cause. We analyzed US linked birth/infant-death data for 1989-1991 and 1998-2000 for American Indians/Alaska Native (AIAN) and White singleton infants at > or =20 weeks' gestation born to US residents. We calculated birthweight-specific infant mortality rates (deaths in each birthweight category per 1000 live births in that category), and overall and cause-specific infant mortality rates (deaths per 100000 live births) in infancy (0-364 days) and in the neonatal (0-27 days) and postneonatal (28-364 days) periods. Birthweight-specific infant mortality rates declined among AIAN and White infants across all birthweight categories, but AIAN infants generally had higher birthweight-specific infant mortality rates. Infant mortality rates declined for both groups, yet in 1998-2000, AIAN infants were still 1.7 times more likely to die than White infants. Most of the disparity was because of elevated post-neonatal mortality, especially from sudden infant death syndrome, accidents, and pneumonia and influenza. Although birthweight-specific infant mortality rates and infant mortality rates declined among both AIAN and White infants, disparities in infant mortality persist. Preventable causes of infant mortality identified in this analysis should be targeted to reduce excess deaths among AIAN communities.

Effects of quality improvement in health facilities and community mobilization through women’s groups on maternal, neonatal and perinatal mortality in three districts of Malawi: MaiKhanda, a cluster randomized controlled effectiveness trial

PubMed Central

Colbourn, Tim; Nambiar, Bejoy; Bondo, Austin; Makwenda, Charles; Tsetekani, Eric; Makonda-Ridley, Agnes; Msukwa, Martin; Barker, Pierre; Kotagal, Uma; Williams, Cassie; Davies, Ros; Webb, Dale; Flatman, Dorothy; Lewycka, Sonia; Rosato, Mikey; Kachale, Fannie; Mwansambo, Charles; Costello, Anthony

2016-01-01

Background Maternal, perinatal and neonatal mortality remains high in low-income countries. We evaluated community and facility-based interventions to reduce deaths in three districts of Malawi. Methods We evaluated a rural participatory women’s group community intervention (CI) and a quality improvement intervention at health centres (FI) via a two-by-two factorial cluster randomized controlled trial. Consenting pregnant women were followed-up to 2 months after birth using key informants. Primary outcomes were maternal, perinatal and neonatal mortality. Clusters were health centre catchment areas assigned using stratified computer-generated randomization. Following exclusions, including non-birthing facilities, 61 clusters were analysed: control (17 clusters, 4912 births), FI (15, 5335), CI (15, 5080) and FI + CI (14, 5249). This trial was registered as International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial [ISRCTN18073903]. Outcomes for 14 576 and 20 576 births were recorded during baseline (June 2007–September 2008) and intervention (October 2008–December 2010) periods. Results For control, FI, CI and FI + CI clusters neonatal mortality rates were 34.0, 28.3, 29.9 and 27.0 neonatal deaths per 1000 live births and perinatal mortality rates were 56.2, 55.1, 48.0 and 48.4 per 1000 births, during the intervention period. Adjusting for clustering and stratification, the neonatal mortality rate was 22% lower in FI + CI than control clusters (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.60–1.01), and the perinatal mortality rate was 16% lower in CI clusters (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.72–0.97). We did not observe any intervention effects on maternal mortality. Conclusions Despite implementation problems, a combined community and facility approach using participatory women’s groups and quality improvement at health centres reduced newborn mortality in rural Malawi. PMID:24030269

Correlation analysis of omega-3 fatty acids and mortality of sepsis and sepsis-induced ARDS in adults: data from previous randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Chen, HuaiSheng; Wang, Su; Zhao, Ying; Luo, YuTian; Tong, HuaSheng; Su, Lei

2018-05-31

This study aimed to investigate the possible effect of omega-3 fatty acids on reducing the mortality of sepsis and sepsis-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in adults. Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) database, WangFang database, and Chinese BioMedical Literature Database from their inception to March 6, 2017, were searched using systematic review researching methods. Five factors were analyzed to investigate the correlation between omega-3 fatty acids (either parenteral or enteral supplementation) and mortality rate. Forty randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were initially included, but only 25 of them assessed mortality. Of these RCTs, nine used enteral nutrition (EN) and 16 used parenteral nutrition (PN). The total mortality rate in the omega-3 fatty acid group was lower than that in the control group. However, the odds ratio (OR) value was not significantly different in the EN or PN subgroup. Eighteen RCTs including 1790 patients with similar severity of sepsis and ARDS were also analyzed. The OR value was not significantly different in the EN or PN subgroup. Omega-3 fatty acids did not show positive effect on improving mortality of sepsis-induced ARDS (p = 0.39). But in EN subgroup, omega-3 fatty acids treatment seemed to have some benefits in reducing mortality rate (p = 0.04). In the RCTs including similar baseline patients, partial correlation analysis found that the concentration ratio of n-6 to n-3 fatty acids had positive correlation with reduction of mortality (RM) (γ = 0.60, P = 0.02), whereas the total number of each RCT had negative correlation with RM (γ = - 0.54, P = 0.05). This review found that omega-3 fatty acid supplementation could reduce the mortality rate of sepsis and sepsis-induced ARDS. However, further investigation based on suitable concentrations and indications is needed to support the findings.

Specific abbreviated injury scale values are responsible for the underestimation of mortality in penetrating trauma patients by the injury severity score.

PubMed

Rowell, Susan E; Barbosa, Ronald R; Diggs, Brian S; Schreiber, Martin A; Holcomb, J B; Wade, C E; Brasel, K J; Vercruysse, G; MacLeod, J; Dutton, R P; Hess, J R; Duchesne, J C; McSwain, N E; Muskat, P; Johannigamn, J; Cryer, H M; Tillou, A; Cohen, M J; Pittet, J F; Knudson, P; De Moya, M A; Schreiber, M A; Tieu, B; Brundage, S; Napolitano, L M; Brunsvold, M; Sihler, K C; Beilman, G; Peitzman, A B; Zenait, M S; Sperry, J; Alarcon, L; Croce, M A; Minei, J P; Kozar, R; Gonzalez, E A; Stewart, R M; Cohn, S M; Mickalek, J E; Bulger, E M; Cotton, B A; Nunez, T C; Ivatury, R; Meredith, J W; Miller, P; Pomper, J; Marin, B

2011-08-01

The Injury Severity Score (ISS) is widely used as a method for rating severity of injury. The ISS is the sum of the squares of the three worst Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) values from three body regions. Patients with penetrating injuries tend to have higher mortality rates for a given ISS than patients with blunt injuries. This is thought to be secondary to the increased prevalence of multiple severe injuries in the same body region in patients with penetrating injuries, which the ISS does not account for. We hypothesized that the mechanism-based difference in mortality could be attributed to certain ISS ranges and specific AIS values by body region. Outcome and injury scoring data were obtained from transfused patients admitted to 23 Level I trauma centers. ISS values were grouped into categories, and a logistic regression model was created. Mortality for each ISS category was determined and compared with the ISS 1 to 15 group. An interaction term was added to evaluate the effect of mechanism. Additional logistic regression models were created to examine each AIS category individually. There were 2,292 patients in the cohort. An overall interaction between ISS and mechanism was observed (p = 0.049). Mortality rates between blunt and penetrating patients with an ISS between 25 and 40 were significantly different (23.6 vs. 36.1%; p = 0.022). Within this range, the magnitude of the difference in mortality was far higher for penetrating patients with head injuries (75% vs. 37% for blunt) than truncal injuries (26% vs. 17% for blunt). Penetrating trauma patients with an AIS head of 4 or 5, AIS abdomen of 3, or AIS extremity of 3 all had adjusted mortality rates higher than blunt trauma patients with those values. Significant differences in mortality between blunt and penetrating trauma patients exist at certain ISS and AIS category values. The mortality difference is greatest for head injured patients.

Socioeconomic Inequality and Its Determinants Regarding Infant Mortality in Iran

PubMed Central

Damghanian, Maryam; Shariati, Mohammad; Mirzaiinajmabadi, Khadigeh; Yunesian, Masud; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan

2014-01-01

Background: Infant mortality rate is a useful indicator of health conditions in the society, the racial and socioeconomic inequality of which is from the most important measures of social inequality. Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the socioeconomic inequality and its determinants regarding infant mortality in an Iranian population. Patients and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed on 3794 children born during 2010-2011 in Shahroud, Iran. Based on children’s addresses and phone numbers, 3412 were available and finally 3297 participated in the study. A data collection form was filled out through interviewing the mothers as well as using health records. Using principal component analysis, the study population was divided to high and low socioeconomic groups based on the case’s home asset, education and job of the household’s head, marital status, and composition of the household members. Inequality between the groups with regard to infant mortality was investigated by Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method. Results: The mortality rate was 15.1 per 1000 live births in the high socioeconomic group and 42.3 per 1000 in the low socioeconomic group. Mother's education, consanguinity of parents, and infant's nutrition type and birth weight constituted 44% of the gap contributing factors. Child's gender, high-risk pregnancy, and living area had no impact on the gap. Conclusions: There was considerable socioeconomic inequality regarding infant mortality in Shahroud. Mother's education was the most contributing factor in this inequality. PMID:25068048

Infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan: current estimates and limitations

PubMed Central

Becker, Stan; Hansen, Peter M; Kumar, Dhirendra; Kumar, Binay; Niayesh, Haseebullah; Peters, David H; Burnham, Gilbert

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine historical estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan, provide estimates for rural areas from current population-based data, and discuss the methodological challenges that undermine data quality and hinder retrospective estimations of mortality. Methods Indirect methods of estimation were used to calculate infant and under-five mortality from a household survey conducted in 2006. Sex-specific differences in underreporting of births and deaths were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of underreporting on infant and under-five mortality. Findings For 2004, rural unadjusted infant and under-five mortality rates were estimated to be 129 and 191 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively, with some evidence indicating underreporting of female deaths. If adjustment for underreporting is made (i.e. by assuming 50% of the unreported girls are dead), mortality estimates go up to 140 and 209, respectively. Conclusion Commonly used estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan are outdated; they do not reflect changes that have occurred in the past 15 years or recent intensive investments in health services development, such as the implementation of the Basic Package of Health Services. The sociocultural aspects of mortality and their effect on the reporting of births and deaths in Afghanistan need to be investigated further. PMID:20680122

Effect of marital status on death rates. Part 2: Transient mortality spikes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

2016-05-01

We examine what happens in a population when it experiences an abrupt change in surrounding conditions. Several cases of such ;abrupt transitions; for both physical and living social systems are analyzed from which it can be seen that all share a common pattern. First, a steep rising death rate followed by a much slower relaxation process during which the death rate decreases as a power law. This leads us to propose a general principle which can be summarized as follows: ;Any abrupt change in living conditions generates a mortality spike which acts as a kind of selection process;. This we term the Transient Shock conjecture. It provides a qualitative model which leads to testable predictions. For example, marriage certainly brings about a major change in personal and social conditions and according to our conjecture one would expect a mortality spike in the months following marriage. At first sight this may seem an unlikely proposition but we demonstrate (by three different methods) that even here the existence of mortality spikes is supported by solid empirical evidence.

Changing trends of chronic myeloid leukemia in greater Mumbai, India over a period of 30 years

PubMed Central

Dikshit, Rajesh P.; Nagrani, Rajini; Yeole, Balkrishna; Koyande, Shravani; Banawali, Shripad

2011-01-01

Background: Little is known about burden of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in India. There is a recent interest to observe incidence and mortality because of advent of new diagnostic and treatment policies for CML. Materials and Methods: We extracted data from the oldest population-based cancer registry of Mumbai for 30 years period from 1976−2005 to observe incidence and mortality rates of CML. We classified the data into four age groups 0–14, 15–29, 30–54 and 55–74 to observe incidence rates in the respective age groups. Results: The age specific rates were highest for the age group of 55–74 years. No significant change in trends of CML was observed for 30 years period. However, there was a significant reduction in incidence rate for recent 15-years period (Estimated average annual percentage change=-3.9). No significant reduction in mortality rate was observed till 2005. Conclusion: The study demonstrates that age-specific rates for CML are highest in age group of 55-74 years, although they are lower compared to western populations. Significant reduction in incidence of CML in recent periods might be because of reduced misclassification of leukemias. The data of CML has to be observed for another decade to witness reduction in mortality because of changes in treatment management. PMID:22174498

Comparative epidemiology of suicide in South Korea and Japan: effects of age, gender and suicide methods.

PubMed

Kim, Seong Yi; Kim, Myoung-Hee; Kawachi, Ichiro; Cho, Youngtae

2011-01-01

Suicide is one of the leading causes of mortality in both South Korea and Japan. The study aims to compare the descriptive epidemiology of suicide over the last two decades (1985-2006) and to explore the conditions associated with the different distribution of suicides in both countries. Age-standardized suicide rates were obtained from the OECD Health Data 2009. Age-specific suicide rates for the age groups were calculated from the WHO Mortality Database. Suicide methods were identified based on ICD-10. Through 1980-2000, Japan showed consistently higher suicide rates compared to Korea. However, from the mid-1990s, Korea showed an acute increase of suicides and finally surpassed Japan; the age-standardized suicide rate of Korea increased from 10.2 (per 100,000) in 1985 to 21.5 in 2006, while it slightly increased from 18.4 to 19.1 in Japan. The highest age-specific suicide rate was observed among Japanese men aged 45-64 years and Korean men aged over 64 years. The increase of elderly suicides among Korean women was notable. The gender ratio increased in Japan and decreased in Korea, respectively. The preferred suicide methods were hanging and pesticide poisoning in Korea and hanging in Japan. Because of the limited number of observations, hypothesis testing of specific risk factors was not possible. Age and gender distribution of suicide rates differed considerably between the two countries. Welfare protection throughout the life course in both countries, and pesticide regulation in Korea would be helpful in reducing the burden of suicide mortality in both countries, even if the social values could not be changed in a short time.

Cause-specific mortality time series analysis: a general method to detect and correct for abrupt data production changes

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Monitoring the time course of mortality by cause is a key public health issue. However, several mortality data production changes may affect cause-specific time trends, thus altering the interpretation. This paper proposes a statistical method that detects abrupt changes ("jumps") and estimates correction factors that may be used for further analysis. Methods The method was applied to a subset of the AMIEHS (Avoidable Mortality in the European Union, toward better Indicators for the Effectiveness of Health Systems) project mortality database and considered for six European countries and 13 selected causes of deaths. For each country and cause of death, an automated jump detection method called Polydect was applied to the log mortality rate time series. The plausibility of a data production change associated with each detected jump was evaluated through literature search or feedback obtained from the national data producers. For each plausible jump position, the statistical significance of the between-age and between-gender jump amplitude heterogeneity was evaluated by means of a generalized additive regression model, and correction factors were deduced from the results. Results Forty-nine jumps were detected by the Polydect method from 1970 to 2005. Most of the detected jumps were found to be plausible. The age- and gender-specific amplitudes of the jumps were estimated when they were statistically heterogeneous, and they showed greater by-age heterogeneity than by-gender heterogeneity. Conclusion The method presented in this paper was successfully applied to a large set of causes of death and countries. The method appears to be an alternative to bridge coding methods when the latter are not systematically implemented because they are time- and resource-consuming. PMID:21929756

Declining mortality following acute myocardial infarction in the Department of Veterans Affairs Health Care System

PubMed Central

Fihn, Stephan D; Vaughan-Sarrazin, Mary; Lowy, Elliott; Popescu, Ioana; Maynard, Charles; Rosenthal, Gary E; Sales, Anne E; Rumsfeld, John; Piñeros, Sandy; McDonell, Mary B; Helfrich, Christian D; Rusch, Roxane; Jesse, Robert; Almenoff, Peter; Fleming, Barbara; Kussman, Michael

2009-01-01

Background Mortality from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is declining worldwide. We sought to determine if mortality in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has also been declining. Methods We calculated 30-day mortality rates between 2004 and 2006 using data from the VHA External Peer Review Program (EPRP), which entails detailed abstraction of records of all patients with AMI. To compare trends within VHA with other systems of care, we estimated relative mortality rates between 2000 and 2005 for all males 65 years and older with a primary diagnosis of AMI using administrative data from the VHA Patient Treatment File and the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) files. Results Using EPRP data on 11,609 patients, we observed a statistically significant decline in adjusted 30-day mortality following AMI in VHA from 16.3% in 2004 to 13.9% in 2006, a relative decrease of 15% and a decrease in the odds of dying of 10% per year (p = .011). Similar declines were found for in-hospital and 90-day mortality. Based on administrative data on 27,494 VHA patients age 65 years and older and 789,400 Medicare patients, 30-day mortality following AMI declined from 16.0% during 2000-2001 to 15.7% during 2004-June 2005 in VHA and from 16.7% to 15.5% in private sector hospitals. After adjusting for patient characteristics and hospital effects, the overall relative odds of death were similar for VHA and Medicare (odds ratio 1.02, 95% C.I. 0.96-1.08). Conclusion Mortality following AMI within VHA has declined significantly since 2003 at a rate that parallels that in Medicare-funded hospitals. PMID:19719849

Community social capital and suicide mortality in the Netherlands: a cross-sectional registry-based study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Evidence on the effect of community social capital on suicide mortality rates is fragmentary and inconsistent. The present study aims to determine whether geographic variations in suicide mortality across the Netherlands were associated with community social capital. Methods We included 3507 neighbourhoods with 6207 suicide deaths in the period 1995–2000. For each neighbourhood, we measured perceived social capital using information from interview surveys, and we measured structural aspects of social capital using population registers. Associations with mortality were determined using Poisson regression analysis with control for confounders at individual level (age, sex, marital status, country of origin) and area level (area income, population density, religious orientation). Results Suicide mortality rates were related to the measure of perceived social capital. Mortality rates were 8 percent higher (95% confidence interval (CI): 2 to 16 percent) in areas with low capital. In stratified analyses, this difference was found to be significantly larger among men (12 percent, CI: 2 to 22) than women (1 percent, CI: -9 to 13), larger among those age 0–50 (18 percent, CI: 8 to 29) than older residents (−2 percent, CI: -12 to 8), and larger among the unmarried (30 percent, CI: 16–45) than the married (−2 percent, CI: -12 to 9). Associations with the structural aspect of social capital were in the same direction, but weaker, and not statistically significant. Conclusions This study contributed some evidence to assume a modest effect of community social capital on suicide mortality rates. This effect may be restricted to specific population groups such as younger unmarried men. PMID:24139454

Maternal education and age: inequalities in neonatal death

PubMed Central

Fonseca, Sandra Costa; Flores, Patricia Viana Guimarães; Camargo, Kenneth Rochel; Pinheiro, Rejane Sobrino; Coeli, Claudia Medina

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Evaluate the interaction between maternal age and education level in neonatal mortality, as well as investigate the temporal evolution of neonatal mortality in each stratum formed by the combination of these two risk factors. METHODS A nonconcurrent cohort study, resulting from a probabilistic relationship between the Mortality Information System and the Live Birth Information System. To investigate the risk of neonatal death we performed a logistic regression, with an odds ratio estimate for the combined variable of maternal education and age, as well as the evaluation of additive and multiplicative interaction. The neonatal mortality rate time series, according to maternal education and age, was estimated by the Joinpoint Regression program. RESULTS The neonatal mortality rate in the period was 8.09‰ and it was higher in newborns of mothers with low education levels: 12.7‰ (adolescent mothers) and 12.4‰ (mother 35 years old or older). Low level of education, without the age effect, increased the chance of neonatal death by 25% (OR = 1.25, 95%CI 1.14–1.36). The isolated effect of age on neonatal death was higher for adolescent mothers (OR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.33–1.46) than for mothers aged ≥ 35 years (OR = 1.16, 95%CI 1.09–1.23). In the time-trend analysis, no age group of women with low education levels presented a reduction in the neonatal mortality rate for the period, as opposed to women with intermediate or high levels of education, where the reduction was significant, around 4% annually. CONCLUSIONS Two more vulnerable groups – adolescents with low levels of education and older women with low levels of education – were identified in relation to the risk of neonatal death and inequality in reducing the mortality rate. PMID:29166446

Cancer incidence and mortality in the Bucaramanga metropolitan area, 2003-2007

PubMed Central

Osma, Sonia; Herrera, Víctor

2012-01-01

Introduction: Cancer is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) make possible to estimate the burden of this condition. Aim: To estimate cancer incidence and mortality rates in the Bucaramanga Metropolitan Area (BMA) during 2003-2007. Methods: Incident cases of invasive cancer diagnosed during 2003-2007 were identified from the Bucaramanga Metropolitan Area PBCR (BMA-PBCR). Population counts and mortality were obtained from the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics (NADS). We estimated total and cancer-specific crude incidence and mortality rates by age group and sex, as well as age-standardized (Segi's world population) incidence (ASIR(W)) and mortality (ASMR(W)) rates. Statistical analyses were conducted using CanReg4 and Stata/IC 10.1. Results: We identified 8,225 new cases of cancer excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (54.3% among women). Of all cases, 6,943 (84.4%) were verified by microscopy and 669 (8.1%) were detected only by death certificate. ASIR(W) for all invasive cancers was 162.8 per 100,000 women and 177.6 per 100,000 men. Breast, cervix, colorectal, stomach and thyroid were the most common types of cancer in women. In men, the corresponding malignancies were prostate, stomach, colorectal, lung and lymphoma. ASMR(W) was 84.5 per 100,000 person-years in women and 106.2 per 100,000 person-years in men. Breast and stomach cancer ranked first as causes of death in those groups, respectively. Conclusion: Overall, mortality rates in our region are higher than national estimates possibly due to limited effectiveness of secondary prevention strategies. Our work emphasizes the importance of maintaining high-quality, nationwide PBCRs. PMID:24893302

Mortality of adult intensive care units in Turkey using the APACHE II and SOFA systems (outcome assessment in Turkish intensive care units).

PubMed

Kaymak, Cetin; Sencan, Irfan; Izdes, Seval; Sari, Aydin; Yagmurdur, Hatice; Karadas, Derya; Oztuna, Derya

2018-04-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate intensive care unit (ICU) performance using risk-adjusted ICU mortality rates nationally, assessing patients who died or had been discharged from the ICU. For this purpose, this study analyzed the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) databases, containing detailed clinical and physiological information and mortality of mixed critically ill patients in a medical ICU at secondary and tertiary referral ICUs in Turkey. A total of 690 adult intensive care units in Turkey were included in the study. Among 690 ICUs evaluated, 39.7% were secondary and 60.3% were tertiary ICUs. A total of 4188 patients were enrolled in this study. Intensive care units of ministry, university, and private hospitals were evaluated all over Turkey. During the study period, clinical data that were collected concurrently for each patient contained demographic details and the diagnostic category leading to ICU admission. APACHE II and SOFA scores following ICU admission were calculated and recorded. Patients were followed up for outcome data until death or ICU discharge. The mean age of patients was 68.8 ±19 and 54% of them were male. The mean APACHE II score was 20 ±8.7. The ICUs' mortality rate was 46.3%, and mean predicted mortality was 37.2% for APACHE II. The standardized mortality ratio was 1.28 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-1.31). There was a wide difference in outcome for patients admitted to different ICUs and severity of illness using risk adjustment methods. The high mortality rate in patients could be related to comorbid diseases, high mechanical ventilation rates and older ages.

Effects of macroeconomic conditions on health in Brazil.

PubMed

Jacinto, Paulo de Andrade; Tejada, César Augusto Oviedo; Sousa, Tanara Rosângela Vieira de

2010-04-01

To analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in Brazil. The analysis of the impact of employment and income on mortality in Brazil was based on panel data from Brazilian states between 1981 and 2002. Mortality rates obtained from the national mortality database was used as a proxy for health status, whereas the variables employment, income, and illiteracy rates were used as proxies for macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions. Static and dynamic models were applied for the analysis of two hypotheses: a) there is a positive relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Ruhm; b) there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Brenner. There was found a negative relationship between mortality rates (proxy for health) and macroeconomic conditions (measured by employment rate). The estimates indicated that the overall mortality rate was higher during economic recession, suggesting that as macroeconomic conditions improved, increasing employment rates, there was a decrease in the mortality rate. The estimate for the relationship between illiteracy (proxy for education level) and mortality rate showed that higher levels of education can improve health. The results from the static and dynamic models support Brenner's hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions.

[Disparities of sex on cancer incidence and mortality in Jiashan county, Zhejiang province,1990-2014].

PubMed

Jiang, X Y; Hu, Y Q; Ye, D; Li, Q L; Chen, K; Jin, M J

2017-06-10

Objective: This study aimed to describe the sex disparities on cancer incidence and mortality in Jiashan population. Methods: All data concerning incident and death cases of cancers were gathered from the database of Cancer Registry in Jiashan county. Data from the 2010 China census was used as the standard population. Sex-specific age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 persons for all cancers and types of each cancer were calculated for the years of 1990 to 1999, 2000 to 2009, 2010 to 2014, and 1990 to 2014. In addition, the corresponding male-to-female incidence rate ratios ( IRRs ) and mortality rate ratios ( MRRs ) were also calculated. Results: The ASIR of all cancers was 226.13/10(5) for the whole period of 1990 to 2014, with 266.04/10(5) for males and 187.22/10(5) for females, respectively. The corresponding IRR was 1.42 (95 %CI : 1.39-1.46), with significant difference noticed in the incidence rates between males and females ( P <0.05). The ASMR of all cancers was 155.39/10(5), with 206.55/10(5) for males and 104.98/10(5) for females, respectively. The corresponding MRR was 1.97 (95 % CI : 1.91-2.03), with significant difference between males and females ( P <0.05). Among all the cancer types, only gallbladder cancer and thyroid cancer showed female predominance in both incidence and mortality, with male predominance in all the remaining cancers. Conclusion: Finding from our study suggested that a male predominance in both incidence and mortality for a majority of cancers in Jiashan population.

Pollution and regional variations of lung cancer mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Moore, Justin Xavier; Akinyemiju, Tomi; Wang, Henry E

2017-08-01

The aims of this study were to identify counties in the United States (US) with high rates of lung cancer mortality, and to characterize the associated community-level factors while focusing on particulate-matter pollution. We performed a descriptive analysis of lung cancer deaths in the US from 2004 through 2014. We categorized counties as "clustered" or "non-clustered" - based on whether or not they had high lung cancer mortality rates - using novel geospatial autocorrelation methods. We contrasted community characteristics between cluster categories. We performed logistic regression for the association between cluster category and particulate-matter pollution. Among 362 counties (11.6%) categorized as clustered, the age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rate was 99.70 deaths per 100,000 persons (95%CI: 99.1-100.3). Compared with non-clustered counties, clustered counties were more likely in the south (72.9% versus 42.1%, P<0.01) and in non-urban communities (73.2% versus 57.4, P<0.01). Clustered counties had greater particulate-matter pollution, lower education and income, higher rates of obesity and physical inactivity, less access to healthcare, and greater unemployment rates (P<0.01). Higher levels of particulate-matter pollution (4th quartile versus 1st quartile) were associated with two-fold greater odds of being a clustered county (adjusted OR: 2.10; 95%CI: 1.23-3.59). We observed a belt of counties with high lung mortality ranging from eastern Oklahoma through central Appalachia; these counties were characterized by higher pollution, a more rural population, lower socioeconomic status and poorer access to healthcare. To mitigate the burden of lung cancer mortality in the US, both urban and rural areas should consider minimizing air pollution. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Growth and mortality of age-0 northern squawfish, Ptychocheilus oregonensis, rearing in shoreline habitats of the Columbia River Reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barfoot, C.A.; Gadomski, D.M.; Wertheimer, R.H.

1999-01-01

We investigated growth and mortality of age-0 northern squawfish during early rearing in shallow shoreline habitats. Larvae and juveniles (n=22914) were collected by weekly seining at three sample sites in the upper John Day Reservoir, Columbia River, during June through early September 1994–1996. Using a length-based ageing method, it was estimated that the exponential growth rate (G) for a common growth stanza (10–28 mm standard length SL) was significantly higher in 1994 (G=0.047) than in 1996 (G=0.037). Growth rate in 1995 could not be estimated, but was probably intermediate between 1994 and 1996 based on mean standard lengths of fish collected at the end of each sampling season (46.3, 40.0, and 32.0 mm SL in 1994, 1995, and 1996, respectively). For many fish species, variations in early growth can influence survival through size-selective mortality processes. Consistent with this possibility, our estimates of instantaneous mortality rates (Z) demonstrated that larvae and juveniles had significantly higher mortality in 1996 than in 1994 (Z=0.103 in 1994, versus Z=0.138 in 1996). Enhanced growth and lower mortality in 1994 were associated with a number of interrelated environmental conditions – comparatively low flows and turbidities, abundant instream vegetative cover, and high near-shore water temperatures.

Suicide in Canada

PubMed Central

McFaull, Steven; Rhodes, Anne E.; Bowes, Matthew; Rockett, Ian R. H.

2016-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study is to compare Canadian suicide rates with other external causes of death to examine potential poisoning misclassifications as a contributor to suicide underreporting. Method: The study used Statistics Canada mortality data from 2000 to 2011 to calculate sex-and age-specific ratios by external cause of injury codes. Results: The overall Canadian suicide rate, as well as the poisoning suicide rate, declined over the study timeframe by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.0% each year. However, unintentional and undetermined poisonings increased significantly during the timeframe. Unintentional poisoning mortality (primarily narcotics and hallucinogens, including opioids) increased in proportion to suicides for both sexes, although females were consistently higher. The undetermined death to suicide ratio was higher and increasing for females. Poisonings of undetermined intent increased over time to comprise 47% to 80% of the undetermined death category for males and females combined. Conclusions: Canadian poisoning suicide rates declined, in contrast to rising unintentional and undetermined poisoning mortality rates. This trend is similar to that of the United States, supporting the hypothesis that misclassification of poisoning deaths may also be an issue in Canada.

Mortality rates among Arab Americans in Michigan.

PubMed

Dallo, Florence J; Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R

2012-04-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans were in the range of whites and blacks. However, Arab American men had lower mortality rates from cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease compared to both whites and blacks. Among women, Arab Americans had lower mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes than whites and blacks. Arab Americans are growing in number. Future study should focus on designing rigorous separate analyses for this population.

Mortality Rates Among Arab Americans in Michigan

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Kendra; Ruterbusch, Julie J.; Booza, Jason; Williams, David R.

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate age-specific and age-adjusted cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans; and (2) compare these rates with those for blacks and whites. Mortality rates were estimated using Michigan death certificate data, an Arab surname and first name list, and 2000 U.S. Census data. Age-specific rates, age-adjusted all-cause and cause-specific rates were calculated. Arab Americans (75+) had higher mortality rates than whites and blacks. Among men, all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for Arab Americans were in the range of whites and blacks. However, Arab American men had lower mortality rates from cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease compared to both whites and blacks. Among women, Arab Americans had lower mortality rates from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and diabetes than whites and blacks. Arab Americans are growing in number. Future study should focus on designing rigorous separate analyses for this population. PMID:21318619

Management of Cardiac Tamponade: A Comperative Study between Echo-Guided Pericardiocentesis and Surgery—A Report of 100 Patients

PubMed Central

Gumrukcuoglu, Hasan Ali; Odabasi, Dolunay; Akdag, Serkan; Ekim, Hasan

2011-01-01

Background. Cardiac tamponade (CT) represents a life-threatening condition, and the optimal method of draining accumulated pericardial fluid remains controversial. We have reviewed 100 patients with CT at our institution over a five-year period and compared the results of echo-guided pericardiocentesis, primary surgical treatment, and surgical treatment following pericardiocentesis with regard to functional outcomes. Methods. The study group consisted of 100 patients with CT attending Yuzuncu Yil University from January 2005 to January 2010 who underwent one of the 3 treatment options (echo-guided pericardiocentesis, primary surgical treatment, and surgical treatment following pericardiocentesis). CT was defined by clinical and echocardiographic criteria. Data on medical history, characteristics of the pericardial fluid, treatment strategy, and follow-up data were collected. Results. Echo-guided pericardiocentesis was performed in 38 (38%) patients (Group A), primary surgical treatment was preformed in 36 (36%) patients (Group B), and surgical treatment following pericardiocentesis was performed in 26 (26%) patients (Group C). Idiopathic and malignant diseases were primary cause of tamponade (28% and 28%, resp.), followed by tuberculosis (14%). Total complication rates, 30-day mortality, and total mortality rates were highest in Group C. Recurrence of tamponade before 90 days was highest in Group A. Conclusions. According to our results, minimal invasive procedure echo-guided pericardiocentesis should be the first choice because of lower complication and mortality rates especially in idiopathic cases and in patients with hemodynamic instability. Surgical approach might be performed for traumatic cases, purulent, recurrent, or malign effusions with higher complication and mortality rates. PMID:21941665

Management of Cardiac Tamponade: A Comperative Study between Echo-Guided Pericardiocentesis and Surgery-A Report of 100 Patients.

PubMed

Gumrukcuoglu, Hasan Ali; Odabasi, Dolunay; Akdag, Serkan; Ekim, Hasan

2011-01-01

Background. Cardiac tamponade (CT) represents a life-threatening condition, and the optimal method of draining accumulated pericardial fluid remains controversial. We have reviewed 100 patients with CT at our institution over a five-year period and compared the results of echo-guided pericardiocentesis, primary surgical treatment, and surgical treatment following pericardiocentesis with regard to functional outcomes. Methods. The study group consisted of 100 patients with CT attending Yuzuncu Yil University from January 2005 to January 2010 who underwent one of the 3 treatment options (echo-guided pericardiocentesis, primary surgical treatment, and surgical treatment following pericardiocentesis). CT was defined by clinical and echocardiographic criteria. Data on medical history, characteristics of the pericardial fluid, treatment strategy, and follow-up data were collected. Results. Echo-guided pericardiocentesis was performed in 38 (38%) patients (Group A), primary surgical treatment was preformed in 36 (36%) patients (Group B), and surgical treatment following pericardiocentesis was performed in 26 (26%) patients (Group C). Idiopathic and malignant diseases were primary cause of tamponade (28% and 28%, resp.), followed by tuberculosis (14%). Total complication rates, 30-day mortality, and total mortality rates were highest in Group C. Recurrence of tamponade before 90 days was highest in Group A. Conclusions. According to our results, minimal invasive procedure echo-guided pericardiocentesis should be the first choice because of lower complication and mortality rates especially in idiopathic cases and in patients with hemodynamic instability. Surgical approach might be performed for traumatic cases, purulent, recurrent, or malign effusions with higher complication and mortality rates.

Wolf population dynamics in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains are affected by recruitment and human-caused mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gude, J.A.; Mitchell, M.S.; Russell, R.E.; Sime, C.A.; Bangs, E.E.; Mech, L.D.; Ream, R.R.

2012-01-01

Reliable analyses can help wildlife managers make good decisions, which are particularly critical for controversial decisions such as wolf (Canis lupus) harvest. Creel and Rotella (2010) recently predicted substantial population declines in Montana wolf populations due to harvest, in contrast to predictions made by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP). We replicated their analyses considering only those years in which field monitoring was consistent, and we considered the effect of annual variation in recruitment on wolf population growth. Rather than assuming constant rates, we used model selection methods to evaluate and incorporate models of factors driving recruitment and human-caused mortality rates in wolf populations in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Using data from 27 area-years of intensive wolf monitoring, we show that variation in both recruitment and human-caused mortality affect annual wolf population growth rates and that human-caused mortality rates have increased with the sizes of wolf populations. We document that recruitment rates have decreased over time, and we speculate that rates have decreased with increasing population sizes and/or that the ability of current field resources to document recruitment rates has recently become less successful as the number of wolves in the region has increased. Estimates of positive wolf population growth in Montana from our top models are consistent with field observations and estimates previously made by MFWP for 2008-2010, whereas the predictions for declining wolf populations of Creel and Rotella (2010) are not. Familiarity with limitations of raw data, obtained first-hand or through consultation with scientists who collected the data, helps generate more reliable inferences and conclusions in analyses of publicly available datasets. Additionally, development of efficient monitoring methods for wolves is a pressing need, so that analyses such as ours will be possible in future years when fewer resources will be available for monitoring. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society. Copyright ?? The Wildlife Society, 2011.

Trends in inequalities in premature cancer mortality by educational level in Colombia, 1998–2007

PubMed Central

de Vries, Esther; Arroyave, Ivan; Pardo, Constanza; Wiesner, Carolina; Murillo, Raul; Forman, David; Burdorf, Alex; Avendaño, Mauricio

2015-01-01

Background There is paucity of studies on socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in developing countries. We examined trends in inequalities in cancer mortality by educational attainment in Colombia during a period of epidemiological transition and a rapid expansion of health insurance coverage. Methods Population mortality data (1998–2007) were linked to census data to obtain age-standardised cancer mortality rates by educational attainment at ages 25–64 years for stomach, cervical, prostate, lung, colorectal, breast and other cancers. We used Poisson regression to model mortality by educational attainment and estimated the contribution of specific cancers to the Slope Index of Inequality in cancer mortality. Results We observed large educational inequalities in cancer mortality, particularly for cancer of the cervix (RR primary versus tertiary groups=5.75, contributing 51% of cancer inequalities), stomach (RR=2.56 for males, contributing 49% of total cancer inequalities, and RR=1.98 for females, contributing 14% to total cancer inequalities), and lung (RR=1.64 for males contributing 17% of total cancer inequalities, and 1.32 for females contributing 5% to total cancer inequalities). Total cancer mortality rates declined faster among those with higher education, with the exception of mortality from cervical cancer, which declined more rapidly in the lower educational groups. Conclusion There are large socioeconomic inequalities in preventable cancer mortality in Colombia, which underscore the need for intensifying prevention efforts. Reducing cervical cancer through reducing HPV infection, early detection and improved access to treatment of preneoplasic lesions. Reinforcing anti-tobacco measures may be particularly important to curb inequalities in cancer mortality. PMID:25492898

Liver transplant center performance profiling: 2005-2011 reports of the Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients.

PubMed

Kettelhut, Valeriya V; Nayar, Preethy

2013-06-01

CONTEXT-Transplant center performance profiling provides important information for various concerned parties. Comparing a transplant center's performance against the performance of the best-in-class centers may help in understanding the performance thresholds for the underperforming centers. OBJECTIVES-(1) To identify and describe "Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)-red-flag" performers and the "best-in-class" performers and (2) to examine the relationships between a center's performance profile and outcomes such as 1-year observed mortality, 1-month observed mortality, 1-year risk-adjusted mortality, and volume. METHODS-The data for analysis was obtained from the published reports on the Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients (SRTR) website for adult liver transplant programs compiled for the rolling 2 1/2-year cohorts of patients and included 7 cohorts of liver transplant recipients in the study from January through July 1, 2002, through December 31, 2010. We defined 4 performance profiles: CMS-red-flag, lower-than-expected, higher-than-expected, and best-in-class performers. RESULTS-The current SRTR methods classify approximately 7% of the adult liver centers as CMS-red-flag performers and 6% of the centers as best-in-class performers in every reported period. Neither of the low-volume centers (<30 liver transplants per 2 1/2-year cohort) was profiled as CMS-red-flag until the 2010 reporting period. The transplant center's profile was significantly associated with the 1-year and 1-month observed mortality rates in every reported cohort (P< .001). CONCLUSION-The CMS-red-flag profile can be characterized with the following: (1) the highest observed 1-year mortality, (2) the highest observed 1-month mortality, (3) a very large difference between the observed and adjusted mortality rates, and (4) the center volume greater than 30 liver transplants per 2 1/2-year cohort. The SRTR methods are not sensitive for performance profiling in the centers that perform fewer than 30 orthotopic liver transplants per 2 1/2-year cohort.

Application of random survival forests in understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda in the presence of covariates that satisfy the proportional and non-proportional hazards assumption.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry

2017-09-07

Uganda just like any other Sub-Saharan African country, has a high under-five child mortality rate. To inform policy on intervention strategies, sound statistical methods are required to critically identify factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates. The Cox proportional hazards model has been a common choice in analysing data to understand factors strongly associated with high child mortality rates taking age as the time-to-event variable. However, due to its restrictive proportional hazards (PH) assumption, some covariates of interest which do not satisfy the assumption are often excluded in the analysis to avoid mis-specifying the model. Otherwise using covariates that clearly violate the assumption would mean invalid results. Survival trees and random survival forests are increasingly becoming popular in analysing survival data particularly in the case of large survey data and could be attractive alternatives to models with the restrictive PH assumption. In this article, we adopt random survival forests which have never been used in understanding factors affecting under-five child mortality rates in Uganda using Demographic and Health Survey data. Thus the first part of the analysis is based on the use of the classical Cox PH model and the second part of the analysis is based on the use of random survival forests in the presence of covariates that do not necessarily satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests and the Cox proportional hazards model agree that the sex of the household head, sex of the child, number of births in the past 1 year are strongly associated to under-five child mortality in Uganda given all the three covariates satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests further demonstrated that covariates that were originally excluded from the earlier analysis due to violation of the PH assumption were important in explaining under-five child mortality rates. These covariates include the number of children under the age of five in a household, number of births in the past 5 years, wealth index, total number of children ever born and the child's birth order. The results further indicated that the predictive performance for random survival forests built using covariates including those that violate the PH assumption was higher than that for random survival forests built using only covariates that satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests are appealing methods in analysing public health data to understand factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates especially in the presence of covariates that violate the proportional hazards assumption.

Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method

PubMed Central

Li, Nan; Lee, Ronald

2005-01-01

Mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely to be similar in some respects, and differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. It should therefore be possible to improve the mortality forecasts for individual countries by taking into account the patterns in a larger group. Using the Human Mortality Database, we apply the Lee-Carter model to a group of populations, allowing each its own age pattern and level of mortality but imposing shared rates of change by age. Our forecasts also allow divergent patterns to continue for a while before tapering off. We forecast greater longevity gains for the US and lesser ones for Japan relative to separate forecasts. PMID:16235614

Past and Present ARDS Mortality Rates: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Máca, Jan; Jor, Ondřej; Holub, Michal; Sklienka, Peter; Burša, Filip; Burda, Michal; Janout, Vladimír; Ševčík, Pavel

2017-01-01

ARDS is severe form of respiratory failure with significant impact on the morbidity and mortality of critical care patients. Epidemiological data are crucial for evaluating the efficacy of therapeutic interventions, designing studies, and optimizing resource distribution. The goal of this review is to present general aspects of mortality data published over the past decades. A systematic search of the MEDLINE/PubMed was performed. The articles were divided according to their methodology, type of reported mortality, and time. The main outcome was mortality. Extracted data included study duration, number of patients, and number of centers. The mortality trends and current mortality were calculated for subgroups consisting of in-hospital, ICU, 28/30-d, and 60-d mortality over 3 time periods (A, before 1995; B, 1995-2000; C, after 2000). The retrospectivity and prospectivity were also taken into account. Moreover, we present the most recent mortality rates since 2010. One hundred seventy-seven articles were included in the final analysis. General mortality rates ranged from 11 to 87% in studies including subjects with ARDS of all etiologies (mixed group). Linear regression revealed that the study design (28/30-d or 60-d) significantly influenced the mortality rate. Reported mortality rates were higher in prospective studies, such as randomized controlled trials and prospective observational studies compared with retrospective observational studies. Mortality rates exhibited a linear decrease in relation to time period (P < .001). The number of centers showed a significant negative correlation with mortality rates. The prospective observational studies did not have consistently higher mortality rates compared with randomized controlled trials. The mortality trends over 3 time periods (before 1995, 1995-2000, and after 2000) yielded variable results in general ARDS populations. However, a mortality decrease was present mostly in prospective studies. Since 2010, the overall rates of in-hospital, ICU, and 28/30-d and 60-d mortality were 45, 38, 30, and 32%, respectively. Copyright © 2017 by Daedalus Enterprises.

Associations between environmental quality and mortality in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BACKGROUND: Assessing cumulative effects of the multiple environmental factors influencing mortality remains a challenging task. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the associations between cumulative environmental quality and all-cause and leading cause-specific (heart disease, cancer, and stroke) mortality rates. METHODS: We used the overall Environmental Quality Index (EQI) and its five domain indices (air, water, land, built, and sociodemographic) to represent environmental exposure. Associations between the EQI and mortality rates (CDC WONDER) for counties in the contiguous United States (n = 3,109) were investigated using multiple linear regression models and random intercept and random slope hierarchical models. Urbanicity, climate, and a combination of the two were used to explore the spatial patterns in the associations. RESULTS: We found 1 standard deviation increase in the overall EQI (worse environment) was associated with a mean 3.22% (95% Cl:2.80%, 3.64%) increase in all-cause mortality, a 0.54% (95% Cl: -0.17%, 1.25%) increase in heart disease mortality, a 2.71% (95% Cl: 2.21%, 3.22%) increase in cancer mortality, and a 2.25% (95% Cl: 1.11%, 3.39%) increase in stroke mortality. Among the environmental domains, the associations ranged from -1.27% (95% Cl: -1.70%,-0.84%) to 3.37% (95% Cl:2.90%, 3.84%),for all-cause mortality, -2.62% (95% Cl: -3.52%, -1.73%) to 4.50% (95% Cl:3.73%, 5.27%) for heart disease mortality, -0.88% (95% Cl:-2.12%, 0.36%)

Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qingyin; Shao, Ming’an; Jia, Xiaoxu; Wei, Xiaorong

2017-01-01

Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P < 0.01). Tree mortality was lowest in tropical rainforests with mean annual precipitation >2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation <1000 mm. Mortality rates varied amongst species. The global annual rate of mortality was much higher for gymnosperms (7.1%) than angiosperms (4.8%) but did not differ significantly between evergreen (6.2%) and deciduous (6.1%) species. Stand age and wood density affected the mortality rate. Saplings (4.6%) had a higher mortality rate than mature trees (3.2%), and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P < 0.01). We therefore concluded that the tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes. PMID:28095437

Relationship of Climatic and Forest Factors to Drought- and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality.

PubMed

Zhang, Qingyin; Shao, Ming'an; Jia, Xiaoxu; Wei, Xiaorong

2017-01-01

Tree mortality due to warming and drought is a critical aspect of forest ecosystem in responding to climate change. Spatial patterns of tree mortality induced by drought and its influencing factors, however, have yet to be documented at the global scale. We collected observations from 248 sites globally where trees have died due to drought and then assessed the effects of climatic and forest factors on the rate of tree mortality. The global mean annual mortality rate was 5.5%. The rate of tree mortality was significantly and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation (P < 0.01). Tree mortality was lowest in tropical rainforests with mean annual precipitation >2000 mm and was severe in regions with mean annual precipitation <1000 mm. Mortality rates varied amongst species. The global annual rate of mortality was much higher for gymnosperms (7.1%) than angiosperms (4.8%) but did not differ significantly between evergreen (6.2%) and deciduous (6.1%) species. Stand age and wood density affected the mortality rate. Saplings (4.6%) had a higher mortality rate than mature trees (3.2%), and mortality rates significantly decreased with increasing wood density for all species (P < 0.01). We therefore concluded that the tree mortality around the globe varied with climatic and forest factors. The differences between tree species, wood density, stand density, and stand age should be considered when evaluating tree mortality at a large spatial scale during future climatic extremes.

Misery Loves Company? A Meta-Regression Examining Aggregate Unemployment Rates and the Unemployment-Mortality Association

PubMed Central

Roelfs, David J.; Shor, Eran; Blank, Aharon; Schwartz, Joseph E.

2015-01-01

PURPOSE Individual-level unemployment has been consistently linked to poor health and higher mortality, but some scholars have suggested that the negative effect of job loss may be lower during times and in places where aggregate unemployment rates are high. We review three logics associated with this moderation hypothesis: health selection, social isolation, and unemployment stigma. We then test whether aggregate unemployment rates moderate the individual-level association between unemployment and all-cause mortality. METHODS We use 6 meta-regression models (each utilizing a different measure of the aggregate unemployment rate) based on 62 relative all-cause mortality risk estimates from 36 studies (from 15 nations). RESULTS We find that the magnitude of the individual-level unemployment-mortality association is approximately the same during periods of high and low aggregate-level unemployment. Model coefficients (exponentiated) were 1.01 for the crude unemployment rate (p = 0.27), 0.94 for the change in unemployment rate from the previous year (p = 0.46), 1.01 for the deviation of the unemployment rate from the 5-year running average (p = 0.87), 1.01 for the deviation of the unemployment rate from the 10-year running average (p = 0.73), 1.01 for the deviation of the unemployment rate from the overall average (measured as a continuous variable; p = 0.61), and showed no variation across unemployment levels when the deviation of the unemployment rate from the overall average was measured categorically. Heterogeneity between studies was significant (p < .001), supporting the use of the random effects model. CONCLUSIONS We found no strong evidence to suggest that unemployment experiences change when macro-economic conditions change. Efforts to ameliorate the negative social and economic consequences of unemployment should continue to focus on the individual and should be maintained regardless of periodic changes in macro-economic conditions. PMID:25795225

Spatiotemporal approaches to analyzing pedestrian fatalities: the case of Cali, Colombia.

PubMed

Fox, Lani; Serre, Marc L; Lippmann, Steven J; Rodríguez, Daniel A; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I; Gutiérrez, María Isabel; Escobar, Guido; Villaveces, Andrés

2015-01-01

Injuries among pedestrians are a major public health concern in Colombian cities such as Cali. This is one of the first studies in Latin America to apply Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) methods to visualize and produce fine-scale, highly accurate estimates of citywide pedestrian fatalities. The purpose of this study is to determine the BME method that best estimates pedestrian mortality rates and reduces statistical noise. We further utilized BME methods to identify and differentiate spatial patterns and persistent versus transient pedestrian mortality hotspots. In this multiyear study, geocoded pedestrian mortality data from the Cali Injury Surveillance System (2008 to 2010) and census data were utilized to accurately visualize and estimate pedestrian fatalities. We investigated the effects of temporal and spatial scales, addressing issues arising from the rarity of pedestrian fatality events using 3 BME methods (simple kriging, Poisson kriging, and uniform model Bayesian maximum entropy). To reduce statistical noise while retaining a fine spatial and temporal scale, data were aggregated over 9-month incidence periods and censal sectors. Based on a cross-validation of BME methods, Poisson kriging was selected as the best BME method. Finally, the spatiotemporal and urban built environment characteristics of Cali pedestrian mortality hotspots were linked to intervention measures provided in Mead et al.'s (2014) pedestrian mortality review. The BME space-time analysis in Cali resulted in maps displaying hotspots of high pedestrian fatalities extending over small areas with radii of 0.25 to 1.1 km and temporal durations of 1 month to 3 years. Mapping the spatiotemporal distribution of pedestrian mortality rates identified high-priority areas for prevention strategies. The BME results allow us to identify possible intervention strategies according to the persistence and built environment of the hotspot; for example, through enforcement or long-term environmental modifications. BME methods provide useful information on the time and place of injuries and can inform policy strategies by isolating priority areas for interventions, contributing to intervention evaluation, and helping to generate hypotheses and identify the preventative strategies that may be suitable to those areas (e.g., street-level methods: pedestrian crossings, enforcement interventions; or citywide approaches: limiting vehicle speeds). This specific information is highly relevant for public health interventions because it provides the ability to target precise locations.

Early-Stage Estimated Value of Blend Sign on the Prognosis of Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Zhou, Ningquan; Wang, Chao

2018-01-01

Background and Purpose This study aimed to explore the relationship between blend sign and prognosis of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Methods Between January 2014 and December 2016, the results of cranial computed tomography imaging within 24 h after the onset of symptoms from 275 patients with ICH were retrospectively analyzed. The patients with or without blend sign were compared to observe and analyze the difference in coagulation function abnormality, rebleeding, mortality, and bad prognosis rates in the early stages. Results Of the 275 patients with ICH, 47 patients had Blend Sign I (17.09%) and 17 patients had Blend Sign II (6.18%). The coagulation function abnormality rate had no statistical difference among Blend Sign I, Blend Sign II, and conventional groups (P > 0.05). In the Blend Sign I group, the rebleeding rate was 4.26%, bad prognosis rate was 25.53%, and mortality rate was 6.38%, which were not statistically significantly different compared with those in the conventional group (P > 0.05). The rebleeding rate in the Blend Sign II group was 47.06%, bad prognosis rate was 82.35%, and mortality rate was 47.06%, which were statistically significantly different compared with those in the conventional and Blend Sign I groups (P < 0.05). Conclusions For the patients associated with Blend Sign I, the prognosis was equivalent to that in the conventional group, with no statistically significant difference. The rebleeding, bad prognosis, and mortality rates were higher in the Blend Sign II group than in the conventional group and deserved more attention.

Gender inequality and violence against women in Spain, 2006–2014: towards a civilized society

PubMed Central

Redding, Erika M.; Ruiz-Cantero, María Teresa; Fernández-Sáez, José; Guijarro-Garvi, Marta

2018-01-01

Objective Considering both the economic crisis of 2008 and the Gender Equality Law (2007), this study analyses the association between gender inequality in Spanish Autonomous Communities (AC) and intimate partner violence (IPV) from 2006 to 2014 in terms of socio-demographic characteristics. Methods Ecological study in the 17 Spanish AC on the correlation between the reported cases by IPV and deaths and the Gender Inequality Index and its dimensions: empowerment, participation in the labour market and adolescent birth rates; and their correlation with Young People Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET). Results In 2006, IPV mortality rates were higher in autonomous communities with greater gender inequality than AC with more equality (4.1 vs. 2.5 × 106 women >14 years), as were reporting rates of IPV (OR = 1.49; 95% CI: 1.47–1.50). In 2014, the IPV mortality rates in AC with greater gender inequality fell to just below the mortality rates in AC with more gender equality (2.5 vs. 2.7 × 106 women >14 years). Rates of IPV reports also decreased (OR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.20–1.23). Adolescent birth rates were most associated with IPV reports, which were also associated with the burden of NEET by AC (ρ2006 = 0.494, ρ2014 = 0.615). Conclusion Gender-sensitive policies may serve as a platform for reduced mortality and reports of IPV in Spain, particularly in AC with more gender inequality. A reduction of NEET may reduce adolescent birth rates and in turn IPV rates. PMID:27793548

Burden of Violent Death on Years of Life Lost in Rhode Island, 2006-2013.

PubMed

Jiang, Yongwen; Ranney, Megan L; Perez, Beatriz; Viner-Brown, Samara

2016-11-01

Mortality from injuries, particularly violent injuries, is more common among the young. Although traditional epidemiologic measures describe burden of death using rate-related mortalities, this method may not accurately represent burden of premature death. Years of life lost (YLLs) incorporate time discounting and age weighting to more accurately estimate the burden of death. To the authors' knowledge, there has been no examination of YLLs using the Rhode Island Violent Death Reporting System data. This study's objective was to assess the burden of violent death in Rhode Island in terms of YLLs. This study used 2006-2013 Rhode Island Violent Death Reporting System data. YLLs as a result of premature violent deaths were assessed overall and by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and manner of death. Data were analyzed in 2015. Suicide made the largest contribution to the overall YLLs (61.3%), followed by homicide (24.0%), whereas undetermined intent deaths captured by the system accounted for 14.8% of YLLs. In Rhode Island, people aged 25-44 years had the highest YLLs due to suicide, and Hispanics had the highest YLLs due to homicide/legal intervention. By comparison, using crude mortality rate calculations, people aged 45-64 years had the highest suicide mortality rate and non-Hispanic blacks had the highest homicide mortality rate. YLL calculations provide a different picture than crude mortality-based assessments of the population at highest risk for violent death. This study demonstrates the strengths of using YLL to assess the burden of violent death at the state level. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Gendered differences in AIDS and AIDS-related cause of death among youth with secondary education in South Africa, 2009–2011

PubMed Central

De Wet, Nicole

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is higher among females than males in Sub-Saharan Africa. Education is associated with better health outcomes. For this and other reasons, African countries have made a concerted effort to increase youth education rates. However, in South Africa males have lower secondary education rates than females, yet females have a higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS. This study examines if a gender disparity exists in AIDS mortality rates among youth with secondary education in South Africa. Methods: This study uses descriptive statistics and life table techniques. A sample of 4386 deaths of youth with secondary education is used. Of this total sample, 987 deaths were among males and 340 were among females with secondary education. Results: This study shows that AIDS mortality is higher among females than males in South Africa. Males and females with secondary education have lower AIDS mortality than all males and females in the population, yet the rates are higher for females. Using cause-deleted life tables, the probability of youth dying from HIV/AIDS practically disappears for both males and females. Odds ratio calculations show that secondary education does not have a protective effect from AIDS mortality among male and female youth. Conclusion: Given the gendered difference in AIDS mortality among youth with secondary education, efforts to increase secondary education among males and further research into other factors exacerbating AIDS mortality among females with secondary education is needed in the country. PMID:27739338

Climate Classification is an Important Factor in ­Assessing Hospital Performance Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boland, M. R.; Parhi, P.; Gentine, P.; Tatonetti, N. P.

2017-12-01

Context/Purpose: Climate is a known modulator of disease, but its impact on hospital performance metrics remains unstudied. Methods: We assess the relationship between Köppen-Geiger climate classification and hospital performance metrics, specifically 30-day mortality, as reported in Hospital Compare, and collected for the period July 2013 through June 2014 (7/1/2013 - 06/30/2014). A hospital-level multivariate linear regression analysis was performed while controlling for known socioeconomic factors to explore the relationship between all-cause mortality and climate. Hospital performance scores were obtained from 4,524 hospitals belonging to 15 distinct Köppen-Geiger climates and 2,373 unique counties. Results: Model results revealed that hospital performance metrics for mortality showed significant climate dependence (p<0.001) after adjusting for socioeconomic factors. Interpretation: Currently, hospitals are reimbursed by Governmental agencies using 30-day mortality rates along with 30-day readmission rates. These metrics allow Government agencies to rank hospitals according to their `performance' along these metrics. Various socioeconomic factors are taken into consideration when determining individual hospitals performance. However, no climate-based adjustment is made within the existing framework. Our results indicate that climate-based variability in 30-day mortality rates does exist even after socioeconomic confounder adjustment. Use of standardized high-level climate classification systems (such as Koppen-Geiger) would be useful to incorporate in future metrics. Conclusion: Climate is a significant factor in evaluating hospital 30-day mortality rates. These results demonstrate that climate classification is an important factor when comparing hospital performance across the United States.

Sex and age differences in the associations between sleep behaviors and all-cause mortality in older adults: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys

PubMed Central

Beydoun, Hind A.; Beydoun, May A.; Chen, Xiaoli; Chang, Jen Jen; Gamaldo, Alyssa A.; Eid, Shaker M.; Zonderman, Alan B.

2017-01-01

Objective Our aim was to examine sex- and age-specific relationships of sleep behaviors with all-cause mortality rates. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 5288 adults (≥50 years) from the 2005–2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys who were followed-up for 54.9 ± 1.2 months. Sleep duration was categorized as < 7 h, 7—8 h and >8 h. Two sleep quality indices were generated through factor analyses. ‘Help-seeking behavior for sleep problems’ and ‘diagnosis with sleep disorders’ were defined as yes/no questions. Sociodemographic covariates-adjusted Cox regression models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results A positive relationship was observed between long sleep and all-cause mortality rate in the overall sample (HR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.38, 2.60), among males (HR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.05, 2.09), females (HR = 2.32, 95% CI: 1.48, 3.61) and elderly (≥65 years) people (HR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.30, 2.50). ‘Sleepiness/sleep disturbance’ (Factor I) and all-cause mortality rate were positively associated among males (HR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.03,1.45), whereas ‘poor sleep-related daytime dysfunction’ (Factor II) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.91) were negatively associated among elderly people. Conclusions Sex- and age-specific relationships were observed between all-cause mortality rate and specific sleep behaviors among older adults. PMID:28735912

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

PubMed Central

Streatfield, P. Kim; Khan, Wasif A.; Bhuiya, Abbas; Hanifi, Syed M.A.; Alam, Nurul; Bagagnan, Cheik H.; Sié, Ali; Zabré, Pascal; Lankoandé, Bruno; Rossier, Clementine; Soura, Abdramane B.; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Kone, Siaka; Ngoran, Eliezer K.; Utzinger, Juerg; Haile, Fisaha; Melaku, Yohannes A.; Weldearegawi, Berhe; Gomez, Pierre; Jasseh, Momodou; Ansah, Patrick; Debpuur, Cornelius; Oduro, Abraham; Wak, George; Adjei, Alexander; Gyapong, Margaret; Sarpong, Doris; Kant, Shashi; Misra, Puneet; Rai, Sanjay K.; Juvekar, Sanjay; Lele, Pallavi; Bauni, Evasius; Mochamah, George; Ndila, Carolyne; Williams, Thomas N.; Laserson, Kayla F.; Nyaguara, Amek; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Phillips-Howard, Penelope; Ezeh, Alex; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Oti, Samuel; Crampin, Amelia; Nyirenda, Moffat; Price, Alison; Delaunay, Valérie; Diallo, Aldiouma; Douillot, Laetitia; Sokhna, Cheikh; Gómez-Olivé, F. Xavier; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen M.; Herbst, Kobus; Mossong, Joël; Chuc, Nguyen T.K.; Bangha, Martin; Sankoh, Osman A.; Byass, Peter

2014-01-01

Background Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15–64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15–64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work. PMID:25377326

Incidence, Remission and Mortality of Convulsive Epilepsy in Rural Northeast South Africa

PubMed Central

Wagner, Ryan G.; Bottomley, Christian; Ngugi, Anthony K.; Ibinda, Fredrick; Gómez-Olivé, F. Xavier; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen; Newton, Charles R.

2015-01-01

Background Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological conditions globally, estimated to constitute 0.75% of the global burden of disease, with the majority of this burden found in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). Few studies from LMICs, including much of sub-Saharan Africa, have described the incidence, remission or mortality rates due to epilepsy, which are needed to quantify the burden and inform policy. This study investigates the epidemiological parameters of convulsive epilepsy within a context of high HIV prevalence and an emerging burden of cardiovascular disease. Methods A cross-sectional population survey of 82,818 individuals, in the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in rural northeast South Africa was conducted in 2008, from which 296 people were identified with active convulsive epilepsy. A follow-up survey was conducted in 2012. Incidence and mortality rates were estimated, with duration and remission rates calculated using the DISMOD II software package. Results The crude incidence for convulsive epilepsy was 17.4/100,000 per year (95%CI: 13.1-23.0). Remission was 4.6% and 3.9% per year for males and females, respectively. The standardized mortality ratio was 2.6 (95%CI: 1.7-3.5), with 33.3% of deaths directly related to epilepsy. Mortality was higher in men than women (adjusted rate ratio (aRR) 2.6 (95%CI: 1.2-5.4)), and was significantly associated with older ages (50+ years versus those 0-5 years old (RR 4.8 (95%CI: 0.6-36.4)). Conclusions The crude incidence was lower whilst mortality rates were similar to other African studies; however, this study found higher mortality amongst older males. Efforts aimed at further understanding what causes epilepsy in older people and developing interventions to reduce prolonged seizures are likely to reduce the overall burden of ACE in rural South Africa. PMID:26053071

30-Day Mortality and Readmission after Hemorrhagic Stroke among Medicare Beneficiaries in Joint Commission Primary Stroke Center Certified and Non-Certified Hospitals

PubMed Central

Lichtman, Judith H.; Jones, Sara B.; Leifheit-Limson, Erica C.; Wang, Yun; Goldstein, Larry B.

2012-01-01

Background and Purpose Ischemic stroke patients treated at Joint Commission Primary Stroke Center (JC-PSC) certified hospitals have better outcomes. Data reflecting the impact of JC-PSC status on outcomes after hemorrhagic stroke are limited. We determined whether 30-day mortality and readmission rates after hemorrhagic stroke differed for patients treated at JC-PSC certified versus non-certified hospitals. Methods The study included all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years old with a primary discharge diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in 2006. Covariate-adjusted logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the effect of care at a JC-PSC certified hospital on 30-day mortality and readmission. Results There were 2,305 SAH and 8,708 ICH discharges from JC-PSC certified hospitals and 3,892 SAH and 22,564 ICH discharges from non-certified hospitals. Unadjusted in-hospital mortality (SAH: 27.5% vs. 33.2%, p<0.0001; ICH: 27.9% vs. 29.6%, p=0.003) and 30-day mortality (SAH: 35.1% vs. 44.0%, p<0.0001; ICH: 39.8% vs. 42.4%, p<0.0001) were lower in JC-PSC hospitals, but 30-day readmission rates were similar (SAH: 17.0% vs. 17.0%, p=0.97; ICH: 16.0% vs. 15.5%; p=0.29). Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality was 34% lower (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.76) after SAH and 14% lower (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80–0.92) after ICH for patients discharged from JC-PSC certified hospitals. There was no difference in 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rates for SAH or ICH based on JC-PSC status. Conclusions Patients treated at JC-PSC certified hospitals had lower risk-adjusted mortality rates for both SAH and ICH but similar 30-day readmission rates as compared with non-certified hospitals. PMID:22033986

Early and mid-term clinical outcome in younger and elderly patients undergoing mitral valve repair with or without tricuspid valve repair.

PubMed

Renner, André; Zittermann, Armin; Aboud, Anas; Hakim-Meibodi, Kavous; Börgermann, Jochen; Gummert, Jan F

2015-01-01

Data regarding durability and midterm benefits of mitral valve (MV) repair in elderly patients are scarce. To evaluate the feasibility and safety of MV repair in elderly patients, we performed a retrospective data analysis. We compared clinical outcomes in younger patients (<75 years: n = 462) and older patients (≥75 years: n = 100) undergoing MV repair with or without tricuspid valve (TV) repair. The primary end-point was 30-day mortality. The preoperative risk profile (EuroSCORE, NYHA class, percentage pulmonary hypertension, percentage diabetes) was higher in older patients compared with younger patients. Nevertheless, operative complications such as low cardiac output syndrome, stroke, infections, the need of haemofiltration and IABP use did not differ significantly between the two groups. The thirty-day mortality rate was 0% in older patients and 1% in younger patients (P = 0.30). In the subgroup of patients with double valve repair, the 30-day mortality rate in older patients (n = 28) and younger patients (n = 46) was 0 and 4%, respectively (P = 0.27). In older and younger patients, the 6-month mortality rate was 4 and 2%, respectively (P = 0.16), and the 1-year mortality rate was 10 and 3%, respectively (P = 0.001). The propensity score-adjusted odds ratio of 1-year mortality with the group of younger patients as a reference was 2.04 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-5.40; P = 0.15) for older patients. Freedom from 1-year reoperation did not differ significantly between age groups. Data demonstrate excellent postoperative mortality rates in older patients undergoing MV repair with or without TV repair. Consequently, even in older patients with numerous comorbidities, MV repair should be considered a suitable surgical method. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

National suicide rates a century after Durkheim: do we know enough to estimate error?

PubMed

Claassen, Cynthia A; Yip, Paul S; Corcoran, Paul; Bossarte, Robert M; Lawrence, Bruce A; Currier, Glenn W

2010-06-01

Durkheim's nineteenth-century analysis of national suicide rates dismissed prior concerns about mortality data fidelity. Over the intervening century, however, evidence documenting various types of error in suicide data has only mounted, and surprising levels of such error continue to be routinely uncovered. Yet the annual suicide rate remains the most widely used population-level suicide metric today. After reviewing the unique sources of bias incurred during stages of suicide data collection and concatenation, we propose a model designed to uniformly estimate error in future studies. A standardized method of error estimation uniformly applied to mortality data could produce data capable of promoting high quality analyses of cross-national research questions.

Community Characteristics and Mortality: The Relative Strength of Association of Different Community Characteristics

PubMed Central

Roberts, Eric; McCleary, Rachael; Buttorff, Christine; Gaskin, Darrell J.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We compared the strength of association between average 5-year county-level mortality rates and area-level measures, including air quality, sociodemographic characteristics, violence, and economic distress. Methods. We obtained mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and linked it to socioeconomic and demographic data from the Census Bureau, air quality data, violent crime statistics, and loan delinquency data. We modeled 5-year average mortality rates (1998–2002) for all-cause, cancer, heart disease, stroke, and respiratory diseases as a function of county-level characteristics using ordinary least squares regression models. We limited analyses to counties with population of 100 000 or greater (n = 458). Results. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, particularly the percentage older than 65 years and near poor, were top predictors of all-cause and condition-specific mortality, as were a high concentration of construction and service workers. We found weaker associations for air quality, mortgage delinquencies, and violent crimes. Protective characteristics included the percentage of Hispanics, Asians, and married residents. Conclusions. Multiple factors influence county-level mortality. Although county demographic and socioeconomic characteristics are important, there are independent, although weaker, associations of other environmental characteristics. Future studies should investigate these factors to better understand community mortality risk. PMID:25033152

Cancer mortality in German carbon black workers 1976–98

PubMed Central

Wellmann, J; Weiland, S K; Neiteler, G; Klein, G; Straif, K

2006-01-01

Background Few studies have investigated cancer risks in carbon black workers and the findings were inconclusive. Methods The current study explores the mortality of a cohort of 1535 male German blue‐collar workers employed at a carbon black manufacturing plant for at least one year between 1960 and 1998. Vital status and causes of death were assessed for the period 1976–98. Occupational histories and information on smoking were abstracted from company records. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and Poisson regression models were calculated. Results The SMRs for all cause mortality (observed deaths (obs) 332, SMR 120, 95% CI 108 to 134), and mortality from lung cancer (obs 50, SMR 218, 95% CI 161 to 287) were increased using national rates as reference. Comparisons to regional rates from the federal state gave SMRs of 120 (95% CI 107 to 133) and 183 (95% CI 136 to 241), respectively. However, there was no apparent dose response relationship between lung cancer mortality and several indicators of occupational exposure, including years of employment and carbon black exposure. Conclusions The mortality from lung cancer among German carbon black workers was increased. The high lung cancer SMR can not fully be explained by selection, smoking, or other occupational risk factors, but the results also provide little evidence for an effect of carbon black exposure. PMID:16497850

Gender inequalities in external cause mortality in Brazil, 2010.

PubMed

de Moura, Erly Catarina; Gomes, Romeu; Falcão, Marcia Thereza Couto; Schwarz, Eduardo; das Neves, Alice Cristina Medeiros; Santos, Wallace

2015-03-01

To estimate mortality rate by external causes in Brazil. Mortality national 2010's data corrected by underreport and adjusted by direct method were evaluated by sex according to age, region of residence, race/skin color, education and conjugal situation. The standardized mortality coefficient of external causes is higher among men (178 per thousand inhabitants) than among women (24 per thousand inhabitants), being higher among young men (20 to 29 years old) in all regions and decreasing with aging. The mortality rate reaches almost nine times higher among men comparably to women, being higher in North and Northeast regions. The death incidence by external causes is higher among men (36.4%) than among women (10.9%), meaning 170% more risk for men. The risk is also higher among the youngest: 6.00 for men and 7.36 for women. The main kind of death by external causes among men is aggressions, followed by transport accidents, the opposite of women. Besides sex, age is the more important predictive factor of precocious death by external causes, pointing the need of many and various sectors in order to construct new identities of non violence.

Compensation and additivity of anthropogenic mortality: life-history effects and review of methods.

PubMed

Péron, Guillaume

2013-03-01

Demographic compensation, the increase in average individual performance following a perturbation that reduces population size, and, its opposite, demographic overadditivity (or superadditivity) are central processes in both population ecology and wildlife management. A continuum of population responses to changes in cause-specific mortality exists, of which additivity and complete compensation constitute particular points. The position of a population on that continuum influences its ability to sustain exploitation and predation. Here I describe a method for quantifying where a population is on the continuum. Based on variance-covariance formulae, I describe a simple metric for the rate of compensation-additivity. I synthesize the results from 10 wildlife capture-recapture monitoring programmes from the literature and online databases, reviewing current statistical methods and the treatment of common sources of bias. These results are used to test hypotheses regarding the effects of life-history strategy, population density, average cause-specific mortality and age class on the rate of compensation-additivity. This comparative analysis highlights that long-lived species compensate less than short-lived species and that populations below their carrying capacity compensate less than those above. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Biomarkers to monitor safety in people on art and risk of mortality.

PubMed

Bansi, Loveleen; Gazzard, Brian; Post, Frank; Phillips, Andrew; Johnson, Margaret; Hill, Teresa; Gilson, Richard; Leen, Clifford; Walsh, John; Fisher, Martin; Sabin, Caroline

2012-05-01

Though patients with HIV now have near normal life expectancies as a result of antiretroviral treatment, long-term adverse effects are of growing concern. Using time-updated laboratory measurements, we use several methods to derive a score that can be used to identify individuals at high risk of mortality. Patients who started highly active antiretroviral therapy after 2000 and had ≥1 CD4 count, viral load, and laboratory marker recorded after the date of starting highly active antiretroviral therapy were included in the analyses. Laboratory markers were stratified into quintiles and associations between each marker and mortality was assessed using Poisson regression. The estimates of the final model were used to construct a score for predicting short-term mortality. Several methods, including multiple imputation, were used for analyzing records with missing measurements. Of the 7232 patients included in this analysis, 247 died over 24,796 person-years of follow-up, giving an overall mortality rate of 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.87 to 1.12) per 100 person-years. Regardless of which method was used to deal with missing data, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, and hemoglobin were independently associated with mortality. Alanine transaminase was independently associated with mortality when patients with missing measurements were assumed to have measurements within the normal range. The C-statistics for all models ranged from 0.76 to 0.78. Measures of alanine transaminase, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, and hemoglobin in the normal range were predictive of mortality, and hence we suggest using a scoring system to predict mortality which relies on the raw values of these 4 laboratory markers.

Measuring hospital performance in congenital heart surgery: administrative versus clinical registry data.

PubMed

Pasquali, Sara K; He, Xia; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Jacobs, Marshall L; Gaies, Michael G; Shah, Samir S; Hall, Matthew; Gaynor, J William; Peterson, Eric D; Mayer, John E; Hirsch-Romano, Jennifer C

2015-03-01

In congenital heart surgery, hospital performance has historically been assessed using widely available administrative data sets. Recent studies have demonstrated inaccuracies in case ascertainment (coding and inclusion of eligible cases) in administrative versus clinical registry data; however, it is unclear whether this impacts assessment of performance on a hospital level. Merged data from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) database (clinical registry) and the Pediatric Health Information Systems (PHIS) database (administrative data set) for 46,056 children undergoing cardiac operations (2006-2010) were used to evaluate in-hospital mortality for 33 hospitals based on their administrative versus registry data. Standard methods to identify/classify cases were used: Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery, version 1 (RACHS-1) in the administrative data and STS-European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery (STAT) methodology in the registry. Median hospital surgical volume based on the registry data was 269 cases per year; mortality was 2.9%. Hospital volumes and mortality rates based on the administrative data were on average 10.7% and 4.7% lower, respectively, although this varied widely across hospitals. Hospital rankings for mortality based on the administrative versus registry data differed by 5 or more rank positions for 24% of hospitals, with a change in mortality tertile classification (high, middle, or low mortality) for 18% and a change in statistical outlier classification for 12%. Higher volume/complexity hospitals were most impacted. Agency for Healthcare Quality and Research (AHRQ) methods in the administrative data yielded similar results. Inaccuracies in case ascertainment in administrative versus clinical registry data can lead to important differences in assessment of hospital mortality rates for congenital heart surgery. Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can we achieve Millennium Development Goal 4? New analysis of country trends and forecasts of under-5 mortality to 2015.

PubMed

Murray, Christopher J L; Laakso, Thomas; Shibuya, Kenji; Hill, Kenneth; Lopez, Alan D

2007-09-22

Global efforts have increased the accuracy and timeliness of estimates of under-5 mortality; however, these estimates fail to use all data available, do not use transparent and reproducible methods, do not distinguish predictions from measurements, and provide no indication of uncertainty around point estimates. We aimed to develop new reproducible methods and reanalyse existing data to elucidate detailed time trends. We merged available databases, added to them when possible, and then applied Loess regression to estimate past trends and forecast to 2015 for 172 countries. We developed uncertainty estimates based on different model specifications and estimated levels and trends in neonatal, post-neonatal, and childhood mortality. Global under-5 mortality has fallen from 110 (109-110) per 1000 in 1980 to 72 (70-74) per 1000 in 2005. Child deaths worldwide have decreased from 13.5 (13.4-13.6) million in 1980 to an estimated 9.7 (9.5-10.0) million in 2005. Global under-5 mortality is expected to decline by 27% from 1990 to 2015, substantially less than the target of Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) of a 67% decrease. Several regions in Latin America, north Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and southeast Asia have had consistent annual rates of decline in excess of 4% over 35 years. Global progress on MDG4 is dominated by slow reductions in sub-Saharan Africa, which also has the slowest rates of decline in fertility. Globally, we are not doing a better job of reducing child mortality now than we were three decades ago. Further improvements in the quality and timeliness of child-mortality measurements should be possible by more fully using existing datasets and applying standard analytical strategies.

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 European countries by 2020.

PubMed

Clèries, R; Rooney, R M; Vilardell, M; Espinàs, J A; Dyba, T; Borras, J M

2018-03-01

We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010. BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted.

Early Lung Cancer Diagnosis by Biosensors

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yuqian; Yang, Dongliang; Weng, Lixing; Wang, Lianhui

2013-01-01

Lung cancer causes an extreme threat to human health, and the mortality rate due to lung cancer has not decreased during the last decade. Prognosis or early diagnosis could help reduce the mortality rate. If microRNA and tumor-associated antigens (TAAs), as well as the corresponding autoantibodies, can be detected prior to clinical diagnosis, such high sensitivity of biosensors makes the early diagnosis and prognosis of cancer realizable. This review provides an overview of tumor-associated biomarker identifying methods and the biosensor technology available today. Laboratorial researches utilizing biosensors for early lung cancer diagnosis will be highlighted. PMID:23892596

Chronic cardiovascular disease mortality in mountaintop mining areas of central Appalachian states.

PubMed

Esch, Laura; Hendryx, Michael

2011-01-01

To determine if chronic cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates are higher among residents of mountaintop mining (MTM) areas compared to mining and nonmining areas, and to examine the association between greater levels of MTM surface mining and CVD mortality. Age-adjusted chronic CVD mortality rates from 1999 to 2006 for counties in 4 Appalachian states where MTM occurs (N = 404) were linked with county coal mining data. Three groups of counties were compared: MTM, coal mining but not MTM, and nonmining. Covariates included smoking rate, rural-urban status, percent male population, primary care physician supply, obesity rate, diabetes rate, poverty rate, race/ethnicity rates, high school and college education rates, and Appalachian county. Linear regression analyses examined the association of mortality rates with mining in MTM areas and non-MTM areas and the association of mortality with quantity of surface coal mined in MTM areas. Prior to covariate adjustment, chronic CVD mortality rates were significantly higher in both mining areas compared to nonmining areas and significantly highest in MTM areas. After adjustment, mortality rates in MTM areas remained significantly higher and increased as a function of greater levels of surface mining. Higher obesity and poverty rates and lower college education rates also significantly predicted CVD mortality overall and in rural counties. MTM activity is significantly associated with elevated chronic CVD mortality rates. Future research is necessary to examine the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of MTM on health to reduce health disparities in rural coal mining areas. © 2011 National Rural Health Association.

National economic and development indicators and international variation in prostate cancer incidence and mortality: an ecological analysis.

PubMed

Neupane, Subas; Bray, Freddie; Auvinen, Anssi

2017-06-01

Macroeconomic indicators are likely associated with prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality globally, but have rarely been assessed. Data on PCa incidence in 2003-2007 for 49 countries with either nationwide cancer registry or at least two regional registries were obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Vol X and national PCa mortality for 2012 from GLOBOCAN 2012. We compared PCa incidence and mortality rates with various population-level indicators of health, economy and development in 2000. Poisson and linear regression methods were used to quantify the associations. PCa incidence varied more than 15-fold, being highest in high-income countries. PCa mortality exhibited less variation, with higher rates in many low- and middle-income countries. Healthcare expenditure (rate ratio, RR 1.46, 95 % CI 1.45-1.47) and population growth (RR 1.15, 95 % CI 1.14-1.16), as well as computer and mobile phone density, were associated with a higher PCa incidence, while gross domestic product, GDP (RR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.93-0.95) and overall mortality (RR 0.72, 95 % CI 0.71-0.73) were associated with a low incidence. GDP (RR 0.55, 95 % CI 0.46-0.66) was also associated with a low PCa mortality, while life expectancy (RR 3.93, 95 % CI 3.22-4.79) and healthcare expenditure (RR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.09-1.32) were associated with an elevated mortality. Our results show that healthcare expenditure and, thus, the availability of medical resources are an important contributor to the patterns of international variation in PCa incidence. This suggests that there is an iatrogenic component in the current global epidemic of PCa. On the other hand, higher healthcare expenditure is associated with lower PCa death rates.

Confounding by season in ecologic studies of seasonal exposures and outcomes: examples from estimates of mortality due to influenza.

PubMed

Jackson, Michael L

2009-10-01

Many health outcomes exhibit seasonal variation in incidence, including accidents, suicides, and infections. For seasonal outcomes it can be difficult to distinguish the causal roles played by factors that also vary seasonally, such as weather, air pollution, and pathogen circulation. Various approaches to estimating the association between a seasonal exposure and a seasonal outcome in ecologic studies are reviewed, using studies of influenza-related mortality as an example. Because mortality rates vary seasonally and circulation of other respiratory viruses peaks during influenza season, it is a challenge to estimate which winter deaths were caused by influenza. Results of studies that estimated the contribution of influenza to all-cause mortality using different methods on the same data are compared. Methods for estimating associations between season exposures and outcomes vary greatly in their advantages, disadvantages, and assumptions. Even when applied to identical data, different methods can give greatly different results for the expected contribution of influenza to all-cause mortality. When the association between exposures and outcomes that vary seasonally is estimated, models must be selected carefully, keeping in mind the assumptions inherent in each model.

Evaluation of an automated safety surveillance system using risk adjusted sequential probability ratio testing.

PubMed

Matheny, Michael E; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Gross, Thomas P; Marinac-Dabic, Danica; Loyo-Berrios, Nilsa; Vidi, Venkatesan D; Donnelly, Sharon; Resnic, Frederic S

2011-12-14

Automated adverse outcome surveillance tools and methods have potential utility in quality improvement and medical product surveillance activities. Their use for assessing hospital performance on the basis of patient outcomes has received little attention. We compared risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio testing (RA-SPRT) implemented in an automated tool to Massachusetts public reports of 30-day mortality after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery. A total of 23,020 isolated adult coronary artery bypass surgery admissions performed in Massachusetts hospitals between January 1, 2002 and September 30, 2007 were retrospectively re-evaluated. The RA-SPRT method was implemented within an automated surveillance tool to identify hospital outliers in yearly increments. We used an overall type I error rate of 0.05, an overall type II error rate of 0.10, and a threshold that signaled if the odds of dying 30-days after surgery was at least twice than expected. Annual hospital outlier status, based on the state-reported classification, was considered the gold standard. An event was defined as at least one occurrence of a higher-than-expected hospital mortality rate during a given year. We examined a total of 83 hospital-year observations. The RA-SPRT method alerted 6 events among three hospitals for 30-day mortality compared with 5 events among two hospitals using the state public reports, yielding a sensitivity of 100% (5/5) and specificity of 98.8% (79/80). The automated RA-SPRT method performed well, detecting all of the true institutional outliers with a small false positive alerting rate. Such a system could provide confidential automated notification to local institutions in advance of public reporting providing opportunities for earlier quality improvement interventions.

Loss to follow-up in the Australian HIV Observational Database

PubMed Central

McManus, Hamish; Petoumenos, Kathy; Brown, Katherine; Baker, David; Russell, Darren; Read, Tim; Smith, Don; Wray, Lynne; Giles, Michelle; Hoy, Jennifer; Carr, Andrew; Law, Matthew

2015-01-01

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV-positive cohorts is an important surrogate for interrupted clinical care which can potentially influence the assessment of HIV disease status and outcomes. After preliminary evaluation of LTFU rates and patient characteristics, we evaluated the risk of mortality by LTFU status in a high resource setting. Methods Rates of LTFU were measured in the Australian HIV Observational Database for a range of patient characteristics. Multivariate repeated measures regression methods were used to identify determinants of LTFU. Mortality by LTFU status was ascertained using linkage to the National Death Index. Survival following combination antiretroviral therapy initiation was investigated using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method and Cox proportional hazards models. Results Of 3,413 patients included in this analysis, 1,632 (47.8%) had at least one episode of LTFU after enrolment. Multivariate predictors of LTFU included viral load (VL)>10,000 copies/ml (Rate ratio (RR) 1.63 (95% confidence interval (CI):1.45–1.84) (ref ≤400)), time under follow-up (per year) (RR 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02–1.04)) and prior LTFU (per episode) (RR 1.15 (95% CI: 1.06–1.24)). KM curves for survival were similar by LTFU status (p=0.484). LTFU was not associated with mortality in Cox proportional hazards models (univariate hazard ratio (HR) 0.93 (95% CI: 0.69–1.26) and multivariate HR 1.04 (95% CI: 0.77–1.43)). Conclusions Increased risk of LTFU was identified amongst patients with potentially higher infectiousness. We did not find significant mortality risk associated with LTFU. This is consistent with timely re-engagement with treatment, possibly via high levels of unreported linkage to other health care providers. PMID:25377928

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

PubMed

2017-09-16

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Can better infrastructure and quality reduce hospital infant mortality rates in Mexico?

PubMed

Aguilera, Nelly; Marrufo, Grecia M

2007-02-01

Preliminary evidence from hospital discharges hints enormous disparities in infant hospital mortality rates. At the same time, public health agencies acknowledge severe deficiencies and variations in the quality of medical services across public hospitals. Despite these concerns, there is limited evidence of the contribution of hospital infrastructure and quality in explaining variations in outcomes among those who have access to medical services provided at public hospitals. This paper provides evidence to address this question. We use probabilistic econometric methods to estimate the impact of material and human resources and hospital quality on the probability that an infant dies controlling for socioeconomic, maternal and reproductive risk factors. As a measure of quality, we calculate for the first time for Mexico patient safety indicators developed by the AHRQ. We find that the probability to die is affected by hospital infrastructure and by quality. In this last regard, having been treated in a hospital with the worse quality incidence doubles the probability to die. This paper also presents evidence on the contribution of other risk factors on perinatal mortality rates. The conclusions of this paper suggest that lower infant mortality rates can be reached by implementing a set of coherent public policy actions including an increase and reorganization of hospital infrastructure, quality improvement, and increasing demand for health by poor families.

Avertable Deaths Associated With Household Income in Virginia

PubMed Central

Jones, Resa M.; Johnson, Robert E.; Phillips, Robert L.; Oliver, M. Norman; Bazemore, Andrew; Vichare, Anushree

2010-01-01

Objectives. We estimated how many deaths would be averted if the entire population of Virginia experienced the mortality rates of the 5 most affluent counties or cities. Methods. Using census data and vital statistics for the years 1990 through 2006, we applied the mortality rates of the 5 counties/cities with the highest median household income to the populations of all counties and cities in the state. Results. If the mortality rates of the reference population had applied to the entire state, 24.3% of deaths in Virginia from 1990 through 2006 (range = 21.8%–28.1%) would not have occurred. An annual mean of 12 954 deaths would have been averted (range = 10 548–14 569), totaling 220 211 deaths from 1990 through 2006. In some of the most disadvantaged areas of the state, nearly half of deaths would have been averted. Conclusions. Favorable conditions that exist in areas with high household incomes exert a major influence on mortality rates. The corollary—that health suffers when society is exposed to economic stresses—is especially timely amid the current recession. Further research must clarify the extent to which individual-level factors (e.g., earnings, education, race, health insurance) and community characteristics can improve health outcomes. PMID:20167893

The learning curve of an academic cardiac surgeon: use of the CUSUM method.

PubMed

Novick, R J; Stitt, L W

1999-01-01

Despite the sizeable volume of research on the determinants of outcome after cardiac operations, few articles have analyzed the learning curves of individual cardiac surgeons over time. The objective of our study was to analyze statistically the learning curve of an academic cardiac surgeon in reducing operative morbidity and mortality during a 10-year interval. The study cohort of 1347 consecutive and unselected patients undergoing cardiac surgical operations from October 1988 to September 1998 were grouped into five 2-year blocks (periods 1 to 5) according to the date of operation. The main outcome measures were operative mortality rate and standardized definitions of perioperative myocardial infarction, intra-aortic balloon pump use, reoperation for bleeding, stroke, sternal wound complications, sepsis, and respiratory insufficiency. Preoperative risk factors and operative results in periods 1 to 5 were compared statistically using a chi-square test for linear trend (categorical variables) or analysis of variance with linear contrast and lack of fit tests (continuous variables). In addition, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) method was used to determine the association among operative morbidity, mortality, and prespecified 80% alert and 95% alarm boundary lines in practice years 1, 5, and 9. Of the preoperative risk factors, only patient age showed an important change during the 10 years of the study (61.3+/-0.7 to 64.3+/-0.6, p = 0.001). There were no statistically significant changes from periods 1 to 5 in overall operative mortality (4.0% to 2.2%, p = 0.56) or in the rates of perioperative stroke (1.8% to 3.8%, p = 0.33), sternal wound complications (0.4% to 0.8%, p = 0.97), sepsis (0.9% to 0.8%, p = 0.63), or respiratory failure (4.4% to 2.8%, p = 0.21). Decreases occurred in a linear fashion during periods 1 to 5 in mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (5.1% to 1.3%, p = 0.012) and in the rates of perioperative myocardial infarction (7.0% to 2.2%, p = 0.005), intra-aortic balloon pump use (7.0% to 3.0%, p = 0.05), and reoperation for bleeding (8.4% to 2.2%, p = 0.001). The number of uneventful cases between a death or complication increased from 2.82+/-0.43 in period 1 to 6.44+/-1.10 in period 5 (p < 0.001). On CUSUM analysis, the cumulative failure rate in year 1 transgressed the upper 80% alert line after 56 cases and the upper 95% alarm line after 69 cases. During years 5 and 9 the failure rate gravitated around the 80% and 95% "reassurance" lines, respectively, indicating improved results as compared to year 1. The mortality rate after coronary artery bypass grafting and select perioperative morbidity rates improved in a linear fashion from the onset of independent practice to year 10. The CUSUM method was helpful in identifying suboptimal results during the first year of practice and shows promise as a method of prospective quality control in cardiac surgery. These data support mentorship of new consultants by a senior surgeon during the first year or two of independent practice.

Health Improvements Have Been More Rapid and Widespread in China than in India: A Comparative Analysis of Health and Socioeconomic Trends from 1960 to 2011

PubMed Central

Singh, Gopal K.; Liu, Jihong

2012-01-01

Objectives We examined differences between China and India in key health and socioeconomic indicators, including life expectancy, infant and child mortality, non-communicable disease mortality from cancer, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and diabetes, Human Development Index, Gender Inequality Index, material living conditions, and health expenditure. Methods Data on health and social indicators came from various World Health Organization and United Nations databases on global health and development statistics, including the GLOBOCAN cancer database. Mortality trends were modeled by log-linear regression, and differences in rates and relative risks were tested for statistical significance. Results Although both countries have made marked improvements, India lags behind China on several key health indicators. Differential rates of mortality decline during 1960-2009 have led to a widening health gap between China and India. In 2009 the infant mortality rate in India was 50 deaths per 1,000 live births, 3 times greater than the rate for China. Sixty-six out of 1,000 Indian children died before reaching their 5th birthday, compared with 19 children in China. China’s life expectancy is 9 years longer than India’s. Life expectancy at birth in India increased from 42 years in 1960 to 65 years in 2009, while life expectancy in China increased from 47 years in 1960 to 74 years in 2009. Major health concerns for China include high rates of stomach, liver, and lung cancer, CVD, and smoking prevalence. Globally, India ranked 90th and China 102nd in life satisfaction. Conclusions and Public Health Implications India’s less favorable health profile compared to China is largely attributable to its higher rates of mortality from communicable diseases and maternal and perinatal conditions. Further health gains can be achieved by reducing social inequality, greater investments in human development and health services, and by prevention and control of chronic-disease risks such as hypertension, smoking, obesity, and physical inactivity. PMID:27621957

Does trade liberalization reduce child mortality in low- and middle-income countries? A synthetic control analysis of 36 policy experiments, 1963-2005.

PubMed

Barlow, Pepita

2018-05-01

Scholars have long argued that trade liberalization leads to lower rates of child mortality in developing countries. Yet current scholarship precludes definitive conclusions about the magnitude and direction of this relationship. Here I analyze the impact of trade liberalization on child mortality in 36 low- and middle-income countries, 1963-2005, using the synthetic control method. I test the hypothesis that trade liberalization leads to lower rates of child mortality, examine whether this association varies between countries and over time, and explore the potentially modifying role of democratic politics, historical context, and geographic location on the magnitude and direction of this relationship. My analysis shows that, on average, trade liberalization had no impact on child mortality in low- and middle-income countries between 1963 and 2005 (Average effect (AE): -0.15%; 95% CI: -2.04%-2.18%). Yet the scale, direction and statistical significance of this association varied markedly, ranging from a ∼20% reduction in child mortality in Uruguay to a ∼20% increase in the Philippines compared with synthetic controls. Trade liberalization was also followed by the largest declines in child mortality in democracies (AE 10-years post reform (AE 10 ): -3.28%), in Latin America (AE 10 : -4.15%) and in the 1970s (AE 10 : -6.85%). My findings show that trade liberalization can create an opportunity for reducing rates of child mortality, but its effects cannot be guaranteed. Inclusive and pro-growth contextual factors appear to influence whether trade liberalization actually yields beneficial consequences in developing societies. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current UK practice in emergency laparotomy

PubMed Central

Barrow, E; Varley, S; Pichel, AC; Peden, CJ; Saunders, DI; Murray, D

2013-01-01

Introduction Emergency laparotomy is a common procedure, with 30,000–50,000 performed annually in the UK. This large scale study reports the current spectrum of emergency laparotomies, and the influence of the surgical procedure, underlying pathology and subspecialty of the operating surgeon on mortality. Methods Anonymised data on consecutive patients undergoing an emergency laparotomy were submitted for a three-month period. The primary outcome measure was unadjusted 30-day mortality. Appendicectomy and cholecystectomy were among the procedures excluded. Results Data from 1,708 patients from 35 National Health Service hospitals were analysed. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 14.8%. ‘True’ emergency laparotomies (ie those classified by the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death as immediate or urgent) comprised 86.5% of cases. The mortality rate rose from 8.0% among expedited cases to 14.3% among urgent cases and to 25.7% among laparotomies termed immediate. Among the most common index procedures, small bowel resection exhibited the highest 30-day mortality rate of 21.1%. The presence of abdominal sepsis was associated with raised 30-day mortality (17.5% in the presence of sepsis vs 12.6%, p=0.027). Colorectal procedures comprised 44.3% and within this group, data suggest that mortality from laparotomy may be influenced by surgical subspecialisation. Conclusions This report of a large number of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in the UK confirms a remarkably high mortality by modern standards across the range. Very few pathologies or procedures can be considered anything other than high risk. The need for routine consultant involvement and critical care is evident, and the case distribution helps define the surgical skill set needed for a modern emergency laparotomy service. Preliminary data relating outcomes from emergency colonic surgery to surgical subspecialty require urgent further study. PMID:24165345

Variation in ICU Utilization and Mortality After Blunt Splenic Injury

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Elinore J.; Wiebe, Douglas J.; Martin, Niels D.; Pascual, Jose L.; Reilly, Patrick M.; Holena, Daniel N.

2016-01-01

Background While trauma patients are frequently cared for in the ICU, admission triage criteria are unclear and may vary among providers and institutions. The benefits of close monitoring must be weighed against the economic and opportunity costs of an ICU admission. Materials and Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients treated for blunt splenic injuries at 30 level I and II Pennsylvania trauma centers, 2011–2014. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the relationship between ICU admission and mortality, adjusting for patient characteristics, injury characteristics, and physiology. We calculated center-level observed-to-expected ratios for ICU utilization and mortality and evaluated correlations with Spearman’s rho. We compared the proportion of patients receiving critical care procedures, such as mechanical ventilation or central line placement, between high- and low-ICU-utilization centers. Results Of 2,587 patients with blunt splenic injuries, 63.9% (1,654) were admitted to the ICU. Median injury severity score (ISS) was 17 overall, 13 for non-ICU patients and 17 for ICU patients (p < 0.001). In multivariable logistic regression, ICU admission was not significantly associated with mortality. Center-level risk-adjusted ICU admission rates ranged from 17.9% to 87.3%. Risk-adjusted mortality rates ranged from 1.2% to 9.6%. There was no correlation between O:E ratios for ICU utilization and mortality (rs = −0.2595, p=0.2103). Proportionately fewer ICU patients at high-utilization centers received critical care procedures than at low-utilization centers. Conclusions Risk-adjusted ICU utilization rates for splenic trauma varied widely among trauma centers, with no clear relationship to mortality. Standardizing ICU admission criteria could improve resource utilization without increasing mortality. PMID:27363642

Decreasing trends in cardiovascular mortality in Turkey between 1988 and 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality increased in developed countries until the 1970s then started to decline. Turkey is about to complete its demographic transition, which may also influence mortality trends. This study evaluated trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality between 1988 and 2008. Methods The number of deaths by cause (ICD-8), age and sex were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) annually between 1988 and 2008. Population statistics were based on census data (1990 and 2000) and Turkstat projections. European population standardised mortality rates for CHD and stroke were calculated for men and women over 35 years old. Joinpoint Regression was used to identify the points at which a statistically significant (p < 0.05) change of the trend occurred. Results The CHD mortality rate increased by 2.9% in men and 2.0% in women annually from 1988 to 1994, then started to decline. The annual rate of decline for men was 1.7% between 1994–2008, whilst in women it was 2.8% between 1994–2000 and 6.7% between 2005–2008 (p < 0.05 for all periods). Stroke mortality declined between 1990–1994 (annual fall of 3.8% in both sexes), followed by a slight increase between 1994–2004 (0.6% in men, 1.1% in women), then a further decline until 2008 (annual reduction of 4.4% in men, 7.9% in women) (p < 0.05 for all periods). Conclusions A decrease in CVD mortality was observed from 1995 onwards in Turkey. The causes need to be explored in detail to inform future policy priorities in noncommunicable disease control. PMID:24079269

Stagnant neonatal mortality and persistent health inequality in middle-income countries: a case study of the Philippines.

PubMed

Kraft, Aleli D; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2013-01-01

The probability of survival through childhood continues to be unequal in middle-income countries. This study uses data from the Philippines to assess trends in the prevalence and distribution of child mortality and to evaluate the country's socioeconomic-related child health inequality. Using data from four Demographic and Health Surveys we estimated levels and trends of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality from 1990 to 2007. Mortality estimates at national and subnational levels were produced using both direct and indirect methods. Concentration indices were computed to measure child health inequality by wealth status. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess the contribution of interventions and socioeconomic factors to wealth-related inequality. Despite substantial reductions in national under-five and infant mortality rates in the early 1990s, the rates of declines have slowed in recent years and neonatal mortality rates remain stubbornly high. Substantial variations across urban-rural, regional, and wealth equity-markers are evident, and suggest that the gaps between the best and worst performing sub-populations will either be maintained or widen in the future. Of the variables tested, recent wealth-related inequalities are found to be strongly associated with social factors (e.g. maternal education), regional location, and access to health services, such as facility-based delivery. The Philippines has achieved substantial progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4, but this success masks substantial inequalities and stagnating neonatal mortality trends. This analysis supports a focus on health interventions of high quality--that is, not just facility-based delivery, but delivery by trained staff at well-functioning facilities and supported by a strong referral system--to re-start the long term decline in neonatal mortality and to reduce persistent within-country inequalities in child health.

Socioeconomic Factors and All Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality among Older People in Latin America, India, and China: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Ferri, Cleusa P.; Acosta, Daisy; Guerra, Mariella; Huang, Yueqin; Llibre-Rodriguez, Juan J.; Salas, Aquiles; Sosa, Ana Luisa; Williams, Joseph D.; Gaona, Ciro; Liu, Zhaorui; Noriega-Fernandez, Lisseth; Jotheeswaran, A. T.; Prince, Martin J.

2012-01-01

Background Even in low and middle income countries most deaths occur in older adults. In Europe, the effects of better education and home ownership upon mortality seem to persist into old age, but these effects may not generalise to LMICs. Reliable data on causes and determinants of mortality are lacking. Methods and Findings The vital status of 12,373 people aged 65 y and over was determined 3–5 y after baseline survey in sites in Latin America, India, and China. We report crude and standardised mortality rates, standardized mortality ratios comparing mortality experience with that in the United States, and estimated associations with socioeconomic factors using Cox's proportional hazards regression. Cause-specific mortality fractions were estimated using the InterVA algorithm. Crude mortality rates varied from 27.3 to 70.0 per 1,000 person-years, a 3-fold variation persisting after standardisation for demographic and economic factors. Compared with the US, mortality was much higher in urban India and rural China, much lower in Peru, Venezuela, and urban Mexico, and similar in other sites. Mortality rates were higher among men, and increased with age. Adjusting for these effects, it was found that education, occupational attainment, assets, and pension receipt were all inversely associated with mortality, and food insecurity positively associated. Mutually adjusted, only education remained protective (pooled hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.98). Most deaths occurred at home, but, except in India, most individuals received medical attention during their final illness. Chronic diseases were the main causes of death, together with tuberculosis and liver disease, with stroke the leading cause in nearly all sites. Conclusions Education seems to have an important latent effect on mortality into late life. However, compositional differences in socioeconomic position do not explain differences in mortality between sites. Social protection for older people, and the effectiveness of health systems in preventing and treating chronic disease, may be as important as economic and human development. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22389633

Reducing child mortality in India in the new millennium.

PubMed Central

Claeson, M.; Bos, E. R.; Mawji, T.; Pathmanathan, I.

2000-01-01

Globally, child mortality rates have been halved over the last few decades, a developmental success story. Nevertheless, progress has been uneven and in recent years mortality rates have increased in some countries. The present study documents the slowing decline in infant mortality rates in india; a departure from the longer-term trends. The major causes of childhood mortality are also reviewed and strategic options for the different states of India are proposed that take into account current mortality rates and the level of progress in individual states. The slowing decline in childhood mortality rates in India calls for new approaches that go beyond disease-, programme- and sector-specific approaches. PMID:11100614

Interaction between migration behaviour and estuarine mortality in cultivated Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts.

PubMed

Vollset, K W; Mahlum, S; Davidsen, J G; Skoglund, H; Barlaup, B T

2016-10-01

Migration behaviour and estuarine mortality of cultivated Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts in a 16 km long estuary were studied using two methods: (1) acoustic telemetry and (2) group tagging in combination with trap nets. Progression rates of surviving individuals through the estuary were relatively slow using both methods [0·38 L T (total length) s -1 v. 0·25 L T  s -1 ]. In 2012, the progression rate was slow from the river to the estuary (0·55 L T  s -1 ) and the first part of the estuary (0·31 L T  s -1 ), but increased thereafter (1·45-2·21 L T  s -1 ). In 2013, the progression rate was fast from the river to the estuary (4·31 L T  s -1 ) but was slower thereafter (0·18-0·91 L T  s -1 ). Survival to the fjord was higher in 2012 (47%) compared to 2013 (6%). Fast moving individuals were more likely to migrate successfully through the estuary compared to slower moving individuals. Adult recapture of coded-wire-tagged S. salar was generally low (0·00-0·04%). Mortality hot spots were related to topographically distinct areas such as the river outlet (in 2012) or the sill separating the estuary and the fjord (in 2013). At the sill, an aggregation of cod Gadus morhua predating on cultivated smolts was identified. The results indicate that slow progression rates through the estuary decreases the likelihood of smolts being detected outside the estuary. The highly stochastic and site-specific mortality patterns observed in this study highlight the complexity in extrapolating mortality patterns of single release groups to the entire smolt run of wild S. salar. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Mortality among people who inject drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Degenhardt, Louisa; Bucello, Chiara; Lemon, James; Wiessing, Lucas; Hickman, Mathew

2013-01-01

Abstract Objective To systematically review cohort studies of mortality among people who inject drugs, examine mortality rates and causes of death in this group, and identify participant- and study-level variables associated with a higher risk of death. Methods Tailored search strings were used to search EMBASE, Medline and PsycINFO. The grey literature was identified through online grey literature databases. Experts were consulted to obtain additional studies and data. Random effects meta-analyses were performed to estimate pooled crude mortality rates (CMRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Findings Sixty-seven cohorts of people who inject drugs were identified, 14 of them from low- and middle-income countries. The pooled CMR was 2.35 deaths per 100 person–years (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.12–2.58). SMRs were reported for 32 cohorts; the pooled SMR was 14.68 (95% CI: 13.01–16.35). Comparison of CMRs and the calculation of CMR ratios revealed mortality to be higher in low- and middle-income country cohorts, males and people who injected drugs that were positive for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). It was also higher during off-treatment periods. Drug overdose and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) were the primary causes of death across cohorts. Conclusion Compared with the general population, people who inject drugs have an elevated risk of death, although mortality rates vary across different settings. Any comprehensive approach to improving health outcomes in this group must include efforts to reduce HIV infection as well as other causes of death, particularly drug overdose. PMID:23554523

[Fertility and health in Mexico].

PubMed

Urbina-Fuentes, M; Echánove-Fernández, E

1989-01-01

Fertility, health, and family planning are not independent factors, but rather involve a series of biological and social mechanisms in close interaction with one another. The impact that a high fertility rate has on health is reflected mainly in a rise in the rates of maternal and child mortality. Similarly, fertility has a greater negative effect upon the health of groups characterized by high reproductive risk, high parity, short intergenesic intervals, and unwanted pregnancies. On the other hand, family planning -and specifically the use of contraceptive methods-helps to achieve a lowering of the fertility rate and also has a positive effect on maternal-child health. This situation can be observed in the case of Mexico, where fertility rates and tendencies, as well as maternal and child mortality, have been reduced during the past decade.

Injury-related mortality in South Africa: a retrospective descriptive study of postmortem investigations

PubMed Central

Prinsloo, Megan; Pillay-van Wyk, Victoria; Gwebushe, Nomonde; Mathews, Shanaaz; Martin, Lorna J; Laubscher, Ria; Abrahams, Naeemah; Msemburi, William; Lombard, Carl; Bradshaw, Debbie

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate injury-related mortality in South Africa using a nationally representative sample and compare the results with previous estimates. Methods We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of medico-legal postmortem investigation data from mortuaries using a multistage random sample, stratified by urban and non-urban areas and mortuary size. We calculated age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for external causes of death. Findings Postmortem reports revealed 52 493 injury-related deaths in 2009 (95% confidence interval, CI: 46 930–58 057). Almost half (25 499) were intentionally inflicted. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 population were as follows: all injuries: 109.0 (95% CI: 97.1–121.0); homicide 38.4 (95% CI: 33.8–43.0; suicide 13.4 (95% CI: 11.6–15.2) and road-traffic injury 36.1 (95% CI: 30.9–41.3). Using postmortem reports, we found more than three times as many deaths from homicide and road-traffic injury than had been recorded by vital registration for this period. The homicide rate was similar to the estimate for South Africa from a global analysis, but road-traffic and suicide rates were almost fourfold higher. Conclusion This is the first nationally representative sample of injury-related mortality in South Africa. It provides more accurate estimates and cause-specific profiles that are not available from other sources. PMID:26229201

Morbidity, mortality, and categorization of the risk of perioperative complications in lung cancer patients*

PubMed Central

Stanzani, Fabiana; Paisani, Denise de Moraes; de Oliveira, Anderson; de Souza, Rodrigo Caetano; Perfeito, João Aléssio Juliano; Faresin, Sonia Maria

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine morbidity and mortality rates by risk category in accordance with the American College of Chest Physicians guidelines, to determine what role pulmonary function tests play in this categorization process, and to identify risk factors for perioperative complications (PCs). METHODS: This was a historical cohort study based on preoperative and postoperative data collected for cases of lung cancer diagnosed or suspected between 2001 and 2010. RESULTS: Of the 239 patients evaluated, only 13 (5.4%) were classified as being at high risk of PCs. Predicted postoperative FEV1 (FEV1ppo) was sufficient to define the risk level in 156 patients (65.3%); however, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) was necessary for identifying those at high risk. Lung resection was performed in 145 patients. Overall morbidity and mortality rates were similar to those reported in other studies. However, morbidity and mortality rates for patients at an acceptable risk of PCs were 31.6% and 4.3%, respectively, whereas those for patients at high risk were 83.3% and 33.3%. Advanced age, COPD, lobe resection, and lower FEV1ppo were correlated with PCs. CONCLUSIONS: Although spirometry was sufficient for risk assessment in the majority of the population studied, CPET played a key role in the identification of high-risk patients, among whom the mortality rate was seven times higher than was that observed for those at an acceptable risk of PCs. The risk factors related to PCs coincided with those reported in previous studies. PMID:24626266

A cohort study of mortality among Ontario pipe trades workers

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, M; Verma, D

2004-01-01

Aims: To study mortality in a cohort of members of the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry of the United States and Canada and to compare results with two previous proportional mortality studies. Methods: A cohort of 25 285 workers who entered the trade after 1949 was assembled from records of the international head office. Mortality was ascertained by linkage to the Canadian Mortality Registry at Statistics Canada. Standardised mortality ratios were computed using Ontario general population mortality rates as the reference. Results: There were significant increases in lung cancer mortality rates (SMR 1.27; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.42). Increased lung cancer risk was observed among plumbers, pipefitters, and sprinkler fitters. Increased risk was observed among workers joining the Union as late as the 1970s. A random effects meta-analysis of this study and the two PMR studies found significant increases in oesophageal (RR 1.24; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.53), lung (RR 1.31; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.44), and haematological/lymphatic (RR 1.21; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.35) malignancies. Conclusions: The mortality pattern is consistent with the effects of occupational exposure to asbestos. Increased risk due to other respiratory carcinogens such as welding fume cannot be excluded. There are substantial amounts of asbestos in place in industrial and commercial environments. The education and training of workers to protect themselves against inhalation hazards will be necessary well into the future. PMID:15317913

Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2008-01-01

For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial factors are likely to become increasingly important. In general, models that fail to account for spatial pattern are at risk of failure as conditions change.

An ecological study of prostate cancer mortality in the USA and UK, 1975-2004: are divergent trends a consequence of treatment, screening or artefact?

PubMed Central

Collin, Simon M; Martin, Richard M; Metcalfe, Chris; Gunnell, David; Albertsen, Peter; Neal, David; Hamdy, Freddie; Stephens, Peter; Lane, J Athene; Moore, Rollo; Donovan, Jenny

2009-01-01

Background There is no conclusive evidence that screening based on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) tests reduces prostate cancer mortality. In the USA uptake of PSA testing has been rapid, but is much less common in the UK. Purpose To investigate trends in prostate cancer mortality and incidence in the USA and UK from 1975-2004, contrasting these with trends in screening and treatment. Methods Joinpoint regression analysis of cancer mortality statistics from Cancer Research UK and the USA National Cancer Institute Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program was used to estimate the annual percentage change in prostate cancer mortality in each country and the points in time when trends changed. Results Age-specific and age-adjusted prostate cancer mortality peaked in the early 1990s at almost identical rates in both countries, but age-adjusted mortality in the USA subsequently declined by 4.2% (95% CI 4.0-4.3%) per annum, four times the rate of decline in the UK (1.1%; 0.8-1.4%). The mortality decline in the USA was greatest and most sustained in those ≥75 years, whereas death rates had plateaued in this age group in the UK by 2000. Conclusion The striking decline in prostate cancer mortality in the USA compared with the UK between 1994-2004 coincided with much higher uptake of PSA screening in the USA. Explanations for the different trends in mortality include the possibility of an early impact of initial screening rounds on men with more aggressive asymptomatic disease in the USA, different approaches to treatment in the two countries, and bias related to the misattribution of cause of death. Speculation over the role of screening will continue until evidence from randomised controlled trials is published. PMID:18424233

Quantitative versus qualitative cultures of respiratory secretions for clinical outcomes in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia.

PubMed

Berton, Danilo Cortozi; Kalil, Andre C; Cavalcanti, Manuela; Teixeira, Paulo José Zimermann

2008-10-08

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common infectious disease in intensive care units (ICUs). The best diagnostic approach to resolve this condition remains uncertain. To evaluate whether quantitative cultures of respiratory secretions are effective in reducing mortality in immunocompetent patients with VAP, compared with qualitative cultures. We also considered changes in antibiotic use, length of ICU stay and mechanical ventilation. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2007, issue 4), which contains the Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialized Register; MEDLINE (1966 to December 2007); EMBASE (1974 to December 2007); and LILACS (1982 to December 2007). Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing respiratory samples processed quantitatively or qualitatively, obtained by invasive or non-invasive methods from immunocompetent patients with VAP, and which analyzed the impact of these methods on antibiotic use and mortality rates. Two review authors independently reviewed and selected trials from the search results, and assessed studies for suitability, methodology and quality. We analyzed data using Review Manager software. We pooled the included studies to yield the risk ratio (RR) for mortality and antibiotic change with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Of the 3931 references identified from the electronic databases, five RCTs (1367 patients) met the inclusion criteria. Three studies compared invasive methods using quantitative cultures versus non-invasive methods using qualitative cultures, and were used to answer the main objective of this review. The other two studies compared invasive versus non-invasive methods, both using quantitative cultures. All five studies were combined to compare invasive versus non-invasive interventions for diagnosing VAP. The studies that compared quantitative and qualitative cultures (1240 patients) showed no statistically significant differences in mortality rates (RR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.11). The analysis of all five RCTs showed there was no evidence of mortality reduction in the invasive group versus the non-invasive group (RR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.11). There were no significant differences between the interventions with respect to the number of days on mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay or antibiotic change. There is no evidence that the use of quantitative cultures of respiratory secretions results in reduced mortality, reduced time in ICU and on mechanical ventilation, or higher rates of antibiotic change when compared to qualitative cultures in patients with VAP. Similar results were observed when invasive strategies were compared with non-invasive strategies.

Explanatory Style in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: An Unrecognized Predictor of Mortality

PubMed Central

Crowson, Aaron D.; Colligan, Robert C.; Matteson, Eric L.; Davis, John M.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine whether pessimistic explanatory style altered the risk for and mortality of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Methods The study included subjects from a population-based cohort with incident RA and non-RA comparison cohort who completed the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI). Results Among 148 RA and 135 non-RA subjects, pessimism was associated with development of rheumatoid factor positive (RF+) RA. Pessimism was associated with an increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR]:2.88 with similar magnitude to RF+ (HR:2.28). Conclusion Pessimistic explanatory style was associated with an increased risk of developing RA and increased mortality rate in patients with RA. PMID:28148754

Trend in infant mortality rate in Argentina within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Juliana Z; Duhau, Mariana; Speranza, Ana

2016-06-01

Infant mortality rate (IMR) is an indicator of the health status of a population and of the quality of and access to health care services. In 2000, and within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals, Argentina committed to achieve by 2015 a reduction by two thirds of its 1990 infant mortality rate, and to identify and close inter-jurisdictional gaps. The objective of this article is to describe the trend in infant mortality rate in Argentina and interjurisdictional gaps, infant mortality magnitude and causes, in compliance with the Millennium Development Goals. A descriptive study on infant mortality was conducted in Argentina in 1990 and between 2000 and 2013, based on vital statistics data published by the Health Statistics and Information Department of the Ministry of Health of Argentina. The following reductions were confirmed: 57.8% in IMR, 52.6% in neonatal mortality rate and 63.8% in post-neonatal mortality rate. The inter-provincial Gini coefficient for IMR decreased by 27%. The population attributable risk decreased by 16.6% for IMR, 38.8% for neonatal mortality rate and 51.5% for post-neonatal mortality rate in 2013 versus 1990. A significant reduction in infant mortality and its components has been shown, but not enough to meet the Millennium Development Goals. The reduction in IMR gaps reached the set goal; however, inequalities still persist. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

Disease and mortality in small ruminants in the North West Province of Cameroon.

PubMed

Ndamukong, K J; Sewell, M M; Asanji, M F

1989-08-01

Mortality rates and the prevalence of disease were assessed in 115 flocks of traditionally managed sheep and goats in two Divisions of the North West Province of Cameroon by means of a questionnaire to the owners. The mortality rate was significantly higher in sheep than in goats and also higher in young stock than in adults. Tethering the animals during the day resulted in significantly lower mortality in both adult and young sheep and also in kids. Disease problems of small ruminants, identified on the basis of signs reported by their owners, included intestinal parasitism, especially helminthiasis, tick infestation and associated diseases, pneumonia, goat plague (peste des petits ruminants) and Oestrus ovis infestation. Treatment of sick animals was only practised on a very small scale, often by possibly ineffective traditional methods. The owners identified tick infestation and diarrhoea as common causes of death. Recommendations are made on control measures suitable for application in this area.

The effect of healthcare delivery privatisation on avoidable mortality: longitudinal cross-regional results from Italy, 1993-2003.

PubMed

Quercioli, Cecilia; Messina, Gabriele; Basu, Sanjay; McKee, Martin; Nante, Nicola; Stuckler, David

2013-02-01

During the 1990s, Italy privatised a significant portion of its healthcare delivery. The authors compared the effectiveness of private and public sector healthcare delivery in reducing avoidable mortality (deaths that should not occur in the presence of effective medical care). The authors calculated the average rate of change in age-standardised avoidable mortality rates in 19 of Italy's regions from 1993 to 2003. Multivariate regression models were used to analyse the relationship between rates of change in avoidable mortality and levels of spending on public versus private healthcare delivery, controlling for potential demographic and economic confounders. Greater spending on public delivery of health services corresponded to faster reductions in avoidable mortality rates. Each €100 additional public spending per capita on NHS delivery was independently associated with a 1.47% reduction in the rate of avoidable mortality (p=0.003). In contrast, spending on private sector services had no statistically significant effect on avoidable mortality rates (p=0.557). A higher percentage of spending on private sector delivery was associated with higher rates of avoidable mortality (p=0.002). The authors found that neither public nor private sector delivery spending was significantly associated with non-avoidable mortality rates, plausibly because non-avoidable mortality is insensitive to healthcare services. Public spending was significantly associated with reductions in avoidable mortality rates over time, while greater private sector spending was not at the regional level in Italy.

Global Incidence and Mortality for Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Trends in 36 Countries.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Goggins, William B; Wang, Harry H X; Fung, Franklin D H; Leung, Colette; Wong, Samuel Y S; Ng, Chi Fai; Sung, Joseph J Y

2016-11-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, but its specific geographic patterns and temporal trends are under-researched. To test the hypotheses that PCa incidence is higher and PCa mortality is lower in countries with higher socioeconomic development, and that temporal trends for PCa incidence have increased while mortality has decreased over time. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 36 countries using data obtained from Cancer incidence in five continents volumes I-X and the World Health Organization mortality database. Correlations between incidence or mortality rates and socioeconomic indicators (human development index [HDI] and gross domestic product [GDP]) were evaluated. The average annual percent change in PCa incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 yr according to join-point regression. Reported PCa incidence rates varied more than 25-fold worldwide in 2012, with the highest incidence rates observed in Micronesia/Polynesia, the USA, and European countries. Mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates except for Africa, where PCa mortality rates were the highest. Countries with higher HDI (r=0.58) and per capita GDP (r=0.62) reported greater incidence rates. According to the most recent 10-yr temporal data available, most countries experienced increases in incidence, with sharp rises in incidence rates in Asia and Northern and Western Europe. A substantial reduction in mortality rates was reported in most countries, except in some Asian countries and Eastern Europe, where mortality increased. Data in regional registries could be underestimated. PCa incidence has increased while PCa mortality has decreased in most countries. The reported incidence was higher in countries with higher socioeconomic development. The incidence of prostate cancer has shown high variations geographically and over time, with smaller variations in mortality. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Death rate by malnutrition in children under the age of five, Colombia].

PubMed

Quiroga, Edwin Fernando

2012-01-01

Much higher mortalities occur in children under five in developing countries with high poverty rates compared with developed countries. Causes of death are related to perinatal conditions, measles, HIV/AIDS, diarrhea, respiratory diseases and others. Throughout the world, malnutrition has been identified as the underlying cause of approximately half of these deaths. Death rate due to malnutrition was described using an adjusted method that takes into account the difficulties of identifying malnutrition as a direct cause of death. A descriptive study included analysis of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) vital statistics from 2003-2007. Death rates were estimated, a method of analysis of multiple causes was applied for infectious diseases, along with calculations of death probabilities. Malnutrition was associated with infectious diseases. The frequency of infectious disease as a direct cause of death was almost seven times higher in cases with the antecedent of malnutrition. When adjusted death rate values were used, the initial value increased nearly five times. The probability of death after the adjustment for inadequate classification increased approximately four times. The Analysis of Multiple Causes Method was established as an effective method in analyzing malnutrition and infectious diesease mortality in Colombia. Malnutrition may be a direct underlying cause of death in one of eight deaths in children <1 year old and one of three deaths in 1-4-year-olds.

Are the Poor Dying Younger in Malaysia? An Examination of the Socioeconomic Gradient in Mortality

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Introduction Socioeconomic inequalities in health represent unfairness in the health distribution of a population. Efforts to produce information on mortality distributions in many low and middle income countries (LMICs) are mostly hampered by lack of data disaggregated by socioeconomic groups. In this paper we describe how mortality statistics obtained from multiple data sources were combined to provide an evaluation of the socioeconomic distribution of mortality in Malaysia, a LMIC located in the Asia Pacific region. Methods This study has an ecological design. As a measure of socioeconomic status, we used principal component analysis to construct a socioeconomic index using census data. Districts were ranked according to the standardised median index of households and assigned to each individual in the 5-year mortality data. The mortality indicators of interest were potential years of life lost (PYLL), standardised mortality ratio (SMR), infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Both socioeconomic status and mortality outcomes were used compute the concentration index which provided the summary measure of the magnitude of inequality. Results Socially disadvantaged districts were found to have worse mortality outcomes compared to more advantaged districts. The values of the concentration index for the overall population of the Peninsula are C = -0.1334 (95% CI: -0.1605 to -0.1063) for the PYLL, C = -0.0685 (95% CI: -0.0928 to -0.0441) for the SMR, C = -0.0997 (95% CI: -0.1343 to -0.0652) for the IMR and C = -0.1207 (95% CI: -0.1523 to -0.0891) for the U5MR. Mortality outcomes within ethnic groups were also found to be less favourable among the poor. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that socioeconomic inequalities disfavouring the poor exist in Malaysia. PMID:27362581

An Overview of Infant Mortality Trends in Qatar from 2004 to 2014

PubMed Central

Al-Thani, Mohammed; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Toumi, Amine; Khalifa, Shams Eldin

2017-01-01

Background Infant mortality is an important health indicator that estimates population well-being. Infant mortality has declined globally but is still a major public health challenge. This article provides the characteristics, causes, burden, and trends of infant mortality in Qatar. Methods Frequencies, percentages, and rates were calculated using data from birth-death registries over 2004–2014 to describe infant mortality by nationality, gender, and age group. We calculated the relative risks of the top causes of infant mortality among subgroups according to the 10th Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10, Version 2016). Results During 2004–2014, 204,224 live births and 1,505 infant deaths were recorded. The infant mortality rate (IMR) averaged 7.4/1000 live births (males 8.1, females 6.6, non-Qataris 7.7, and Qataris 6.8). IMR declined 20% from 2004 to 2014. The decline in IMR was significant for the overall population of infants (p=0.006), male infants (p=0.04), females (p=0.006), and for non-Qatari males (p=0.007) and non-Qatari females (p=0.007). The leading causes of infant mortality were congenital malformations (all types) (34.5%), low birth weight (LBW) (27%), and respiratory distress of newborns (2.8%). Male infants had a higher risk of mortality than female infants due to a congenital malformation of lungs (p=0.02), other congenital malformations, not elsewhere classified (p=0.01), and cardiovascular disorders (p=0.05). Conclusion The study shows that infant mortality among male infants is high due to the top infant mortality-related disorders, and male infants have a higher risk of mortality than female infants. PMID:29152426

An Overview of Infant Mortality Trends in Qatar from 2004 to 2014.

PubMed

Al-Thani, Mohammed; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Toumi, Amine; Khalifa, Shams Eldin; Akram, Hammad

2017-09-09

Background Infant mortality is an important health indicator that estimates population well-being. Infant mortality has declined globally but is still a major public health challenge. This article provides the characteristics, causes, burden, and trends of infant mortality in Qatar. Methods Frequencies, percentages, and rates were calculated using data from birth-death registries over 2004-2014 to describe infant mortality by nationality, gender, and age group. We calculated the relative risks of the top causes of infant mortality among subgroups according to the 10 th Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10, Version 2016). Results During 2004-2014, 204,224 live births and 1,505 infant deaths were recorded. The infant mortality rate (IMR) averaged 7.4/1000 live births (males 8.1, females 6.6, non-Qataris 7.7, and Qataris 6.8). IMR declined 20% from 2004 to 2014. The decline in IMR was significant for the overall population of infants (p=0.006), male infants (p=0.04), females (p=0.006), and for non-Qatari males (p=0.007) and non-Qatari females (p=0.007). The leading causes of infant mortality were congenital malformations (all types) (34.5%), low birth weight (LBW) (27%), and respiratory distress of newborns (2.8%). Male infants had a higher risk of mortality than female infants due to a congenital malformation of lungs (p=0.02), other congenital malformations, not elsewhere classified (p=0.01), and cardiovascular disorders (p=0.05). Conclusion The study shows that infant mortality among male infants is high due to the top infant mortality-related disorders, and male infants have a higher risk of mortality than female infants.

Hemostatic Changes Associated With Increased Mortality Rates in Hospitalized Patients With HIV-Associated Tuberculosis: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Schutz, Charlotte; Ward, Amy M.; Huson, Mischa A. M.; Wilkinson, Robert J.; Burton, Rosie; Maartens, Gary; Wilkinson, Katalin A.; Meijers, Joost C. M.; Lutter, René; Grobusch, Martin P.; Meintjes, Graeme; van der Poll, Tom

2017-01-01

Background Mortality rates remain high for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–associated tuberculosis, and our knowledge of contributing mechanisms is limited. We aimed to determine whether hemostatic changes in HIV-tuberculosis were associated with mortality or decreased survival time and the contribution of mycobacteremia to these effects. Methods We conducted a prospective study in Khayelitsha, South Africa, in hospitalized HIV-infected patients with CD4 cell counts <350/µL and microbiologically proved tuberculosis. HIV-infected outpatients without tuberculosis served as controls. Plasma biomarkers reflecting activation of procoagulation and anticoagulation, fibrinolysis, endothelial cell activation, matricellular protein release, and tissue damage were measured at admission. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess variables associated with 12-week mortality rates. Results Of 59 patients with HIV-tuberculosis, 16 (27%) died after a median of 12 days (interquartile range, 0–24 days); 29 (64%) of the 45 not receiving anticoagulants fulfilled criteria for disseminated intravascular coagulation. Decreased survival time was associated with higher concentrations of markers of fibrinolysis, endothelial activation, matricellular protein release, and tissue damage and with decreased concentrations for markers of anticoagulation. In patients who died, coagulation factors involved in the common pathway were depleted (factor II, V, X), which corresponded to increased plasma clotting times. Mycobacteremia modestly influenced hemostatic changes without affecting mortality. Conclusions Patients with severe HIV-tuberculosis display a hypercoagulable state and activation of the endothelium, which is associated with mortality. PMID:28363198

Mortality from Parkinson's disease and other causes among a workforce manufacturing paraquat: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Campbell, Clive

2011-01-01

Objective To assess the risk of Parkinson's disease (PD) and update information on mortality from major causes of death among a UK workforce who manufactured paraquat (PQ) between 1961 and 1995. There have been no previous studies of the incidence of PD among PQ production workers, although much epidemiological literature exists concerning the relationship between pesticides and PD, and interest has focused on PQ and its users. Methods The cohort included all employees who had ever worked on any of the four plants at Widnes where PQ was manufactured between 1961 and 1995, and 926 male and 42 female workers were followed through 30 June 2009. Mortalities for males were compared with national and local rates, including rates for PD as a mentioned cause of death. Results Overall, 307 workers had died by 30 June 2009. One male death was due to PD, and no other death certificate mentioned PD. At least 3.3 death certificates of male employees would have been expected to have mentioned PD (standardised mortality ratio=31; 95% CI 1 to 171). Personal monitoring results were indicative that the exposure of a PQ production worker on a daily basis was at least comparable with that of a PQ sprayer or mixer/loader. Reduced mortalities compared with local rates were found for major causes of death. Conclusions The study provided no evidence of an increased risk of PD, or increased mortalities from other causes. PMID:22080539

Factors Influencing The Six-Month Mortality Rate In Patients With A Hip Fracture

PubMed Central

Ristic, Branko; Rancic, Nemanja; Bukumiric, Zoran; Zeljko, Stepanovic; Ignjatovic-Ristic, Dragana

2016-01-01

Abstract Background There are several potential risk factors in patients with a hip fracture for a higher rate of mortality that include: comorbid disorders, poor general health, age, male gender, poor mobility prior to injury, type of fracture, poor cognitive status, place of residence. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of potential risk factors for six-month mortality in hip fracture patients. Methods The study included all patients with a hip fracture older than 65 who had been admitted to the Clinic for orthopaedic surgery during one year. One hundred and ninety-two patients were included in the study. Results Six months after admission due to a hip fracture, 48 patients had died (6-month mortality rate was 25%). The deceased were statistically older than the patients who had survived. Univariate regression analysis indicated that six variables had a significant effect on hip fracture patients’ survival: age, mobility prior to the fracture, poor cognitive status, activity of daily living, comorbidities and the place where they had fallen. Multivariate regression modelling showed that the following factors were independently associated with mortality at 6 months post fracture: poor cognitive status, poor mobility prior to the fracture, comorbid disease. Conclusion Poor cognitive status appeared to be the strongest mortality predictor. The employment of brief tests for cognitive status evaluation would enable orthopaedists to have good criteria for the choice of treatment for each patient screened. PMID:27284379

Is there a survival benefit within a German primary care-based disease management program?

PubMed

Miksch, Antje; Laux, Gunter; Ose, Dominik; Joos, Stefanie; Campbell, Stephen; Riens, Burgi; Szecsenyi, Joachim

2010-01-01

To compare the mortality rate of patients with type 2 diabetes who were enrolled in the German diabetes disease management program (DMP) with the mortality rate of those who were not enrolled. This observational study was part of the ELSID study (Evaluation of a Large Scale Implementation of disease management programs) in Germany. Participants had type 2 diabetes and were either enrolled or not enrolled in the DMP. The DMP provides systems-based, multifaceted, and patient-centered interventions. To reduce imbalances between the groups, a matched sample was created using sex, age, retirement status, federal state, pharmacy-based cost groups, and diagnostic-cost groups as matching criteria. Cox proportional hazards regression model and the Kaplan-Meier method were used to assess overall mortality. The observation period was 3 years beginning on January 1, 2006. A total of 11,079 patients were included in the analysis. As of January 1, 2006, 2300 patients were enrolled in the DMP and 8779 were receiving routine care. There were 1927 matched pairs of patients in the DMP group and the non-DMP group. The overall mortality rate was 11.3% in the DMP and 14.4% in the non-DMP group (log-rank test P <.01). We found an association between participation in the German diabetes DMP and reduced mortality. This reduced mortality cannot be attributed directly to the DMP. However, further research should evaluate whether a primary care-based DMP contributes to increased life expectancy in patients with diabetes.

[Mortality from Suicide in the Municipalities of Mainland Portugal: Spatio-Temporal Evolution between 1980 and 2015].

PubMed

Loureiro, Adriana; Almendra, Ricardo; Costa, Cláudia; Santana, Paula

2018-01-31

Suicide is considered a public health priority. It is a complex phenomenon resulting from the interaction of several factors, which do not depend solely on individual conditions. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of suicide mortality between 1980 and 2015, identifying areas of high risk, and their variation, in the 278 municipalities of Continental Portugal. Based on the number of self-inflicted injuries and deaths from suicide and the resident population, the spatio-temporal evolution of the suicide mortality rate was assessed via: i) a Poisson joinpoint regression model, and ii) spatio-temporal clustering methods. The suicide mortality rate evolution showed statistically significant increases over three periods (1980 - 1984; 1999 - 2002 and 2006 - 2015) and two statistically significant periods of decrease (1984 - 1995 and 1995 - 1999). The spatio-temporal analysis identified five clusters of high suicide risk (relative risk >1) and four clusters of low suicide risk (relative risk < 1). The periods when suicide mortality increases seem to overlap with times of economic and financial instability. The geographical pattern of suicide risk has changed: presently, the suicide rates from the municipalities in the Center and North are showing more similarity with those seen in the South, thus increasing the ruralization of the phenomenon of suicide. Between 1980 and 2015 the spacio-temporal pattern of mortality from suicide has been changing and is a phenomenon that is currently experiencing a growing trend (since 2006) and is of higher risk in rural areas.

Gender bias in under-five mortality in low/middle-income countries.

PubMed

Costa, Janaína Calu; da Silva, Inacio Crochemore Mohnsam; Victora, Cesar Gomes

2017-01-01

Due to biological reasons, boys are more likely to die than girls. The detection of gender bias requires knowing the expected relation between male and female mortality rates at different levels of overall mortality, in the absence of discrimination. Our objective was to compare two approaches aimed at assessing excess female under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in low/middle-income countries. We compared the two approaches using data from 60 Demographic and Health Surveys (2005-2014). The prescriptive approach compares observed mortality rates with historical patterns in Western societies where gender discrimination was assumed to be low or absent. The descriptive approach is derived from global estimates of all countries with available data, including those affected by gender bias. The prescriptive approach showed significant excess female U5MR in 20 countries, compared with only one country according to the descriptive approach. Nevertheless, both models showed similar country rankings. The 13 countries with the highest and the 10 countries with the lowest rankings were the same according to both approaches. Differences in excess female mortality among world regions were significant, but not among country income groups. Both methods are useful for monitoring time trends, detecting gender-based inequalities and identifying and addressing its causes. The prescriptive approach seems to be more sensitive in the identification of gender bias, but needs to be updated using data from populations with current-day structures of causes of death.

International Ranking of Infant Mortality Rates: Taiwan Compared with European Countries.

PubMed

Liang, Fu-Wen; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Wu, Mei-Hwan; Lue, Hung-Chi; Chiang, Tung-Liang; Huang, Ya-Li; Chen, Lea-Hua

2016-08-01

Rankings of infant mortality rates are commonly cited international comparisons to assess the health status of individual countries. We compared the infant mortality rate of Taiwan with those of European countries for 2004 according to two definitions. First, the countries were ranked on the basis of crude infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality rates. The countries were then ranked according to the mortality rates calculated after exclusion of live births with a known birth weight of <1000 g, which is the definition set by the World Health Organization. Taiwan was ranked 11(th), 12(th), and 15(th) among 26 high-income countries for crude infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality rates, respectively. The ranks were 12(th), 16(th), and 15(th), respectively, for mortality rates, excluding live births with a birth weight of <1000 g. However, in only seven, four, and 10 countries were the mortality rate ratios statistically significantly lower than Taiwan in infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality, respectively, according to the second definition. The ranking of Taiwan was similar (11(th) vs. 12(th)) according the two definitions. However, after consideration of the confidence interval, only six countries (Sweden, Finland, Czech Republic, Belgium, Austria, and Germany) had infant mortality rates statistically significantly lower than those of Taiwan in 2004. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Patterns of mortality rates in Darfur conflict.

PubMed

Degomme, Olivier; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2010-01-23

Several mortality estimates for the Darfur conflict have been reported since 2004, but few accounted for conflict dynamics such as changing displacement and causes of deaths. We analyse changes over time for crude and cause-specific mortality rates, and assess the effect of displacement on mortality rates. Retrospective mortality surveys were gathered from an online database. Quasi-Poisson models were used to assess mortality rates with place and period in which the survey was done, and the proportions of displaced people in the samples were the explanatory variables. Predicted mortality rates for five periods were computed and applied to population data taken from the UN's series about Darfur to obtain the number of deaths. 63 of 107 mortality surveys met all criteria for analysis. Our results show significant reductions in mortality rates from early 2004 to the end of 2008, although rates were higher during deployment of fewer humanitarian aid workers. In general, the reduction in rate was more important for violence-related than for diarrhoea-related mortality. Displacement correlated with increased rates of deaths associated with diarrhoea, but also with reduction in violent deaths. We estimated the excess number of deaths to be 298 271 (95% CI 178 258-461 520). Although violence was the main cause of death during 2004, diseases have been the cause of most deaths since 2005, with displaced populations being the most susceptible. Any reduction in humanitarian assistance could lead to worsening mortality rates, as was the case between mid 2006 and mid 2007. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient outcomes following discharge from secure psychiatric hospitals: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Fazel, Seena; Fimińska, Zuzanna; Cocks, Christopher; Coid, Jeremy

2016-01-01

Background Secure hospitals are a high-cost, low-volume service consuming around a fifth of the overall mental health budget in England and Wales. Aims A systematic review and meta-analysis of adverse outcomes after discharge along with a comparison with rates in other clinical and forensic groups in order to inform public health and policy. Method We searched for primary studies that followed patients discharged from a secure hospital, and reported mortality, readmissions or reconvictions. We determined crude rates for all adverse outcomes. Results In total, 35 studies from 10 countries were included, involving 12 056 patients out of which 53% were violent offenders. The crude death rate for all-cause mortality was 1538 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 1175–1901). For suicide, the crude death rate was 325 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 235–415). The readmission rate was 7208 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 5916–8500). Crude reoffending rates were 4484 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 3679–5287), with lower rates in more recent studies. Conclusions There is some evidence that patients discharged from forensic psychiatric services have lower offending outcomes than many comparative groups. Services could consider improving interventions aimed at reducing premature mortality, particularly suicide, in discharged patients. PMID:26729842

29 CFR 4022.8 - Form of payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

.... Unisex mortality rates that are a fixed blend of 50 percent of the male mortality rates and 50 percent of the female mortality rates from the 1983 Group Annuity Mortality Table as prescribed in Rev. Rul. 95-6... Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402); and (ii) Interest. An interest rate of six...

29 CFR 4022.8 - Form of payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

.... Unisex mortality rates that are a fixed blend of 50 percent of the male mortality rates and 50 percent of the female mortality rates from the 1983 Group Annuity Mortality Table as prescribed in Rev. Rul. 95-6... Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402); and (ii) Interest. An interest rate of six...

29 CFR 4022.8 - Form of payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

.... Unisex mortality rates that are a fixed blend of 50 percent of the male mortality rates and 50 percent of the female mortality rates from the 1983 Group Annuity Mortality Table as prescribed in Rev. Rul. 95-6... Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402); and (ii) Interest. An interest rate of six...

Prediction of road traffic death rate using neural networks optimised by genetic algorithm.

PubMed

Jafari, Seyed Ali; Jahandideh, Sepideh; Jahandideh, Mina; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari

2015-01-01

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are realised as a main cause of public health problems at global, regional and national levels. Therefore, prediction of road traffic death rate will be helpful in its management. Based on this fact, we used an artificial neural network model optimised through Genetic algorithm to predict mortality. In this study, a five-fold cross-validation procedure on a data set containing total of 178 countries was used to verify the performance of models. The best-fit model was selected according to the root mean square errors (RMSE). Genetic algorithm, as a powerful model which has not been introduced in prediction of mortality to this extent in previous studies, showed high performance. The lowest RMSE obtained was 0.0808. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the use of Genetic algorithm as a powerful optimiser which selects the best input feature set to be fed into the neural networks. Seven factors have been known as the most effective factors on the road traffic mortality rate by high accuracy. The gained results displayed that our model is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better method for assessing the influence of road traffic mortality risk factors.

Self-Rated Health Changes and Oldest-Old Mortality

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objectives. This study explores how 2 measures of self-rated health (SRH) change are related to mortality among oldest-old adults. In doing so, it also considers how associations between SRH and mortality may depend on prior SRH. Method. Data come from the Asset and Health Dynamics survey—the oldest-old portion of the Health and Retirement Study—and follow 6,233 individuals across 13 years. I use parametric hazard models to examine relationships between death and 2 measures of short-term SRH change—a computed measure comparing SRH at time t–1 and t, and a respondent-provided retrospectively reported change. Results. Respondents who demonstrate or report any SRH change between survey waves died at a greater rate than those with consistent SRH. After controlling for morbidity, individual characteristics, and SRH, those who changed SRH categories between survey waves and those who retrospectively reported an improvement in health continue to have a greater risk of death, when compared with those with no change. Discussion. These findings suggest that the well-established associations between SRH status and mortality may understate the risk of death for oldest-old individuals with recent subjective health improvements. PMID:24589929

Fertility and mortality in India during 1951-1971.

PubMed

Sinha, U P

1976-03-01

Statistical corrections found necessary to draw up a set of life tab les for the International Institute for Population Studies are discussed . The 1971 Census of India enumerated 547,949,809 persons, 13 million short of the estimate by the Census Actuary. Although the fluid migration situation may have complicated the figures, the real problem seems to be overestimation of the drop in death rates and underestimation of the adoption of family planning. Also, the Census Actuary borrowed infant mortality rates observed by the National Sample Survey without adjusting for underestimation of vital events. This results in underestimation of childhood mortality. The smoothed age distributions of 1961 seem different from the ones of 1951. There is a 2% difference in the proportion of children below 5 years of age, a figure that does not seem possible due to mortality decline alone in the 10-year period. Population projections using the method derived have been very close to enumerated populations and the vital rates are close to estimates of other authors and surveys. It is possible the Sample Re gistration Scheme did not make adjustments for events missed by the enumerator and, subsequently, by the supervisor.

Heart Rate at Hospital Discharge in Patients With Heart Failure Is Associated With Mortality and Rehospitalization

PubMed Central

Laskey, Warren K.; Alomari, Ihab; Cox, Margueritte; Schulte, Phillip J.; Zhao, Xin; Hernandez, Adrian F.; Heidenreich, Paul A.; Eapen, Zubin J.; Yancy, Clyde; Bhatt, Deepak L.; Fonarow, Gregg C.

2015-01-01

Background Whether heart rate upon discharge following hospitalization for heart failure is associated with long‐term adverse outcomes and whether this association differs between patients with sinus rhythm (SR) and atrial fibrillation (AF) have not been well studied. Methods and Results We conducted a retrospective cohort study from clinical registry data linked to Medicare claims for 46 217 patients participating in Get With The Guidelines®–Heart Failure. Cox proportional‐hazards models were used to estimate the association between discharge heart rate and all‐cause mortality, all‐cause readmission, and the composite outcome of mortality/readmission through 1 year. For SR and AF patients with heart rate ≥75, the association between heart rate and mortality (expressed as hazard ratio [HR] per 10 beats‐per‐minute increment) was significant at 0 to 30 days (SR: HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.39; AF: HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.29) and 31 to 365 days (SR: HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.20; AF: HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.08). Similar associations between heart rate and all‐cause readmission and the composite outcome were obtained for SR and AF patients from 0 to 30 days but only in the composite outcome for SR patients over the longer term. The HR from 0 to 30 days exceeded that from 31 to 365 days for both SR and AF patients. At heart rates <75, an association was significant for mortality only for both SR and AF patients. Conclusions Among older patients hospitalized with heart failure, higher discharge heart rate was associated with increased risks of death and rehospitalization, with higher risk in the first 30 days and for SR compared with AF. PMID:25904590

Social capital in a changing society: cross sectional associations with middle aged female and male mortality rates.

PubMed

Skrabski, A; Kopp, M; Kawachi, I

2003-02-01

Social capital has been linked to self rated health and mortality rates. The authors examined the relations between measures of social capital and male/female mortality rates across counties in Hungary. Cross sectional, ecological study. 20 counties of Hungary. 12,640 people were interviewed in 1995 (the "Hungarostudy II" survey), representing the Hungarian population according to sex, age, and county. Social capital was measured by three indicators: lack of social trust, reciprocity between citizens, and help received from civil organisations. Covariates included county GDP, personal income, education, unemployment, smoking, and alcohol spirit consumption. Gender specific mortality rates were calculated for the middle aged population (45-64 years) in the 20 counties of Hungary. All of the social capital variables were significantly associated with middle age mortality, but levels of mistrust showed the strongest association. Several gender differences were observed, namely male mortality rates were more closely associated with lack of help from civic organisations, while female mortality rates were more closely connected with perceptions of reciprocity. There are gender differences in the relations of specific social capital indicators to mortality rates. At the same time, perceptions of social capital within each sex were associated with mortality rates in the opposite sex.

[Public spending on health and population health in Algeria: an econometric analysis].

PubMed

Messaili, Moussa; Kaïd Tlilane, Nouara

2017-07-10

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of public spending on health, among other determinants of health, on the health of the population in Algeria, using life expectancy (men and women) and infant mortality rates as indicators of health status. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal study over the period from 1974 to 2010 using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags) approach to co-integration to estimate the short-term and long-term relationship. Results: Public spending on health has a positive, but not statistically significant impact, in the long and short term, on life expectancy (men and women). However, public spending significantly reduces the infant mortality rate. The long-term impact of the number of hospital beds is significant for the life expectancy of men, but not for women and infant mortality, but is significant for all indicators in the short-term relationship. The most important variables in improving the health of the population are real GDP per capita and fertility rate.

Beverage-specific alcohol sales and violent mortality in Russia.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury Evgeny

2010-01-01

High violent mortality rate in Russia and its profound fluctuation over recent decades have attracted considerable interest. A mounting body of evidence points to the binge drinking pattern as a potentially important contributor to the violent mortality crisis in Russia. In line with this evidence, we assume that higher level of vodka consumption in conjunction with binge drinking pattern results in close aggregate-level association between vodka sales and violent mortality rates in Russia. To test this hypothesis, trends in beverage-specific alcohol sales per capita and mortality rates from external causes in Russia between 1980 and 2005 were analyzed by means of ARIMA time-series analysis. Results of the analysis indicate that violent mortality rates tend to be more responsive to change in vodka sales per capita than to change in total level of alcohol sales. The analysis suggests that a 1-litre increase in vodka sales per capita would result in a 5% increase in violent mortality rate, an 11.3% increase in accidents and injuries mortality rate, a 9.2% increase in suicide rate, a 12.5% increase in homicide rate, and a 21.9% increase in fatal alcohol poisoning rate. The outcomes of this study provide support for the hypothesis that alcohol played a crucial role in the fluctuation in violent mortality rate in Russia in recent decades. Assuming that drinking vodka is usually associated with intoxication episodes, these findings provide additional evidence that the binge drinking pattern is an important determinant of the violent mortality crisis in Russia.

[Comparison of molluscicidal effects of two snail control methods with plastic film covering in hilly regions].

PubMed

Zhou, Yun; Zhang, Biao; Wang, Zhi-Mei; Zhao, Jia-Huei; Mao, Shu; Xie, De-Bing; Mei, Zhi-Zhong; Zhang, Jun; Hong, Qing-Biao; Wang, Wei; Sun, Le-Ping

2013-12-01

To evaluate and compare the molluscicidal effects of colorless and black plastic film covering methods against Oncomelania hupensis snails in hilly regions. A hilly setting with high snail density was selected as the study area, and three groups including the colorless plastic film covering method, black plastic film covering method and control were designed. The snail surveys were conducted 1, 3, 7, 15 days and 30 days in each group following plastic film covering, and the mortality of snails and reduction of snail density were investigated. The air temperature, soil surface temperature in the control group, as well as the soil surface temperature and the temperatures 5 cm and 15 cm under the soil within the film were recorded. The mortality rates of snails were 36.84%, 78.94%, 95.92%, 100.00% and 99.45% 1, 3, 7, 15 days and 30 days following colorless plastic film covering, respectively, and the snail density after 30 days of covering reduced by 99.36% as compared to that before covering, while the mortality rates of snails were 10.08%, 8.94%, 6.11%, 26.15% and 49.32% 1, 3, 7, 15 days and 30 days following black plastic film covering, respectively, and the snail density after 30 days of covering reduced by 58.10% as compared to that before covering. There were significant differences in the 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-day and 30-day snail mortality rates between the colorless and black film covering groups (all P values <0.01), and a significant difference was detected in the snail density between the two groups 30 days after the film covering (P < 0.001). In addition, the speed, amplitude and duration of the rise in the soil surface temperature within the colorless film were all greater than those within the black film. The short-term molluscicidal effect of the colorless plastic film covering method is significantly superior to that of the black plastic film covering method in summer in hilly regions.

[The analysis of the trend of mortality rate of falls in China from 1990 to 2015].

PubMed

Ye, P P; Er, Y L; Jin, Y; Duan, L L

2018-05-06

Objective: To understand the status and trend of the mortality rate of falls in different gender, age groups and provinces in China from 1990 to 2015, to explore the number of subgroups of different trends in all provinces, and to determine the different trajectory of subgroups. Methods: Using the mortality rate of falls in China from 1990 to 2015 from the Global Disease Burden 2015 (data covers 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, as well as Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan Province) to describe the status of the mortality rate of falls in different gender, age group and provinces in China 2015 and to calculate the corresponding relative change. Using log linear model to calculate the annual percent changes from 1990 to 2015. The number of subgroups and corresponding characteristics of different trajectories were analyzed by trajectory model to analyze with four indicators, P value of the coefficient of independent variables with different orders in all subgroups, Bayesian information criterion, log Bayes factor and average posterior probability. Results: In 2015, the age standardized mortality rate of falls in China was 8.38/100 000 (95 %UI : 5.54/100 000-9.30/100 000), which was higher in men (10.81/100 000, 95 %UI : 6.58/100 000-12.14/100 000) than that in women (5.84/100 000,95 %UI : 3.41/100 000-6.62/100 000), and in the elderly aged 70-year-old and above (60.50/100 000, 95 %UI : 38.36/100 000-67.75/100 000) than that in other age groups. From 1990 to 2015, there was no obvious change in the age standardized mortality rate of falls in total population, men and women with average percent change about 0.37 (95 %UI : -0.08-0.83), 0.45 (95 %UI : 0.05-0.84) and 0.31 (95 %UI : -0.26-0.87) respectively, but a significant decrease and increase could be seen in children under 15-year-old, especially under 5-year-old with average percent change about -4.07 (95 %UI : -5.62--2.51), and the elderly aged 70-year-old and above with average percent change about 1.89 (95 %UI : 1.42-2.37) respectively. Four types of trajectories could be categorized for different trends of age standardized mortality rate of falls in all provinces. The first group had the lowest fall mortality with a downward trend. The fall mortality was close in the second and third group but with different change tendency, a decreasing propensity in the former and an increasing one in the latter. The fourth group had the highest fall morality with obvious fluctuation. Conclusion: There was no significant change in the age standardized mortality rate of falls in China from 1990 to 2015. However, the trend of age standardized mortality rate of falls varied in different age and provinces during the same period of time.

Epidemiology and Outcomes After In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Gupta, Punkaj; Jacobs, Jeffrey P.; Pasquali, Sara K.; Hill, Kevin D.; Gaynor, J. William; O’Brien, Sean M.; He, Max; Sheng, Shubin; Schexnayder, Stephen M.; Berg, Robert A.; Nadkarni, Vinay M.; Imamura, Michiaki; Jacobs, Marshall L.

2014-01-01

Background Multicenter data regarding cardiac arrest in children undergoing heart operations are limited. We describe epidemiology and outcomes associated with postoperative cardiac arrest in a large multiinstitutional cohort. Methods Patients younger than 18 years in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (2007 through 2012) were included. Patient factors, operative characteristics, and outcomes were described for patients with and without postoperative cardiac arrest. Multivariable models were used to evaluate the association of center volume with cardiac arrest rate and mortality after cardiac arrest, adjusting for patient and procedural factors. Results Of 70,270 patients (97 centers), 1,843 (2.6%) had postoperative cardiac arrest. Younger age, lower weight, and presence of preoperative morbidities (all p < 0.0001) were associated with cardiac arrest. Arrest rate increased with procedural complexity across common benchmark operations, ranging from 0.7% (ventricular septal defect repair) to 12.7% (Norwood operation). Cardiac arrest was associated with significant mortality risk across procedures, ranging from 15.4% to 62.3% (all p < 0.0001). In multivariable analysis, arrest rate was not associated with center volume (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.71 to 1.57 in low- versus high-volume centers). However, mortality after cardiac arrest was higher in low-volume centers (odds ratio, 2.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.52 to 2.63). This association was present for both high- and low-complexity operations. Conclusions Cardiac arrest carries a significant mortality risk across the stratum of procedural complexity. Although arrest rates are not associated with center volume, lower-volume centers have increased mortality after cardiac arrest. Further study of mechanisms to prevent cardiac arrest and to reduce mortality in those with an arrest is warranted. PMID:25443018

All‐cause and cause‐specific mortality in rheumatoid arthritis are not greater than expected when treated with tumour necrosis factor antagonists

PubMed Central

Carmona, Loreto; Descalzo, Miguel Ángel; Perez‐Pampin, Eva; Ruiz‐Montesinos, Dolores; Erra, Alba; Cobo, Tatiana; Gómez‐Reino, Juan J

2007-01-01

Background Mortality is increased in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), mainly because of cardiovascular (CV) events, cancer and infections. Recent data suggest that treatment with tumour necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists may affect this trend. Objective To assess whether treatment with TNF antagonists is associated with reduction in CV events, cancer and infection rates, and in mortality in patients with RA treated and not treated with TNF antagonists. Methods BIOBADASER is a registry for active long‐term follow‐up of safety of biological treatments in patients with RA. It includes 4459 patients with RA treated with TNF antagonists. EMECAR is an external RA cohort (n = 789) established to define the characteristics of the disease in Spain and to assess comorbidity. The incidence density (ischaemic heart disease) of CV events, cancer and infections was estimated and compared. The standardised mortality ratio was compared with the rate in the general population. A propensity score was used to match cohorts by the probability of being treated. Results Rates of CV and cancer events are significantly higher in EMECAR than in BIOBADASER (RR 5–7 for different CV events, and RR 2.9 for cancer), whereas the rate of serious infections is significantly higher in BIOBADASER (RR 1.6). Mortality ratio of BIOBADASER by EMECAR is 0.32 (0.20–0.53) for all causes of death, 0.58 (0.24–1.41) for CV events, 0.52 (0.21–1.29) for infection and 0.36 (0.10–1.30) for cancer‐related deaths. Conclusion Morbidity, other than infection, and mortality are not higher than expected in patients with RA treated with TNF antagonists. PMID:17324968

Drowning deaths between 1861 and 2000 in Victoria, Australia

PubMed Central

Ozanne-Smith, Joan

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To identify the long-term patterns of drowning mortality in the state of Victoria, Australia, and to describe the historical context in which the decrease occurred. Methods We obtained data on drowning deaths and population statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and its predecessors for the period 1861 to 2000. From these data, we calculated drowning death rates per 100 000 population per year, by gender and age. We reviewed primary and secondary historical resources, such as government and newspaper archives, books and the Internet, to identify changes or events in the state that may have affected drowning mortality. Findings From 1861 to 2000, at least 18 070 people drowned in Victoria. Male drowning rates were higher than those for females in all years and for all ages. Both sexes experienced the highest drowning rate in 1863 (79.5 male deaths per 100 000 population and 18.8 female death per 100 000 population). The lowest drowning rate was documented in 2000 (1.4 male deaths per 100 000 population and 0.3 female deaths per 100 000 population). The reduction patterns of drowning mortality occurred within a historical context of factors that directly affected drowning mortality, such as the improvement in people’s water safety skills, or those that incidentally affected drowning mortality, like infrastructure development. Conclusion We identified patterns of reduction in drowning mortality, both in males and females and across age groups. These patterns could be linked to events and factors that happened in Victoria during this period. These findings may have relevance to current developing communities. PMID:28250530

Is the high ischemic heart disease mortality rate in New York State just an urban effect?

PubMed Central

McNutt, L A; Strogatz, D S; Coles, F B; Fehrs, L J

1994-01-01

To determine whether New York State's high ischemic heart disease mortality rate was due primarily to an urban effect, rates for regions in the State were compared with each other and with national data. New York State mortality rates for the period 1980-87 were highest for New York City (344.5 per 100,000 residents), followed by upstate urban and rural areas (267.1-285.1), and New York City suburbs (272.5). However, the overall 1986 age-adjusted rate for the New York State region with the lowest mortality rate (265.7) exceeded that of 42 States. New York State's number one ischemic heart disease mortality ranking reflects the need for statewide intervention programs, because even regions with relatively low mortality rates are high when they are compared with national rates. PMID:8041858

The trend in mental health-related mortality rates in Australia 1916-2004: implications for policy

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background This study determines the trend in mental health-related mortality (defined here as the aggregation of suicide and deaths coded as "mental/behavioural disorders"), and its relative numerical importance, and to argue that this has importance to policy-makers. Its results will have policy relevance because policy-makers have been predominantly concerned with cost-containment, but a re-appraisal of this issue is occurring, and the trade-off between health expenditures and valuable gains in longevity is being emphasised now. This study examines longevity gains from mental health-related interventions, or their absence, at the population level. The study sums mortality data for suicide and mental/behavioural disorders across the relevant ICD codes through time in Australia for the period 1916-2004. There are two measures applied to the mortality rates: the conventional age-standardised headcount; and the age-standardised Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL), a measure of premature mortality. Mortality rates formed from these data are analysed via comparisons with mortality rates for All Causes, and with circulatory diseases, cancer and motor vehicle accidents, measured by both methods. Results This study finds the temporal trend in mental health-related mortality rates (which reflects the longevity of people with mental illness) has worsened through time. There are no gains. This trend contrasts with the (known) gains in longevity from All Causes, and the gains from decreases achieved in previously rising mortality rates from circulatory diseases and motor vehicle accidents. Also, PYLL calculation shows mental health-related mortality is a proportionately greater cause of death compared with applying headcount metrics. Conclusions There are several factors that could reverse this trend. First, improved access to interventions or therapies for mental disorders could decrease the mortality analysed here. Second, it is important also that new efficacious therapies for various mental disorders be developed. Furthermore, it is also important that suicide prevention strategies be implemented, particularly for at-risk groups. To bring the mental health sector into parity with many other parts of the health system will require knowledge of the causative factors that underlie mental disorders, which can, in turn, lead to efficacious therapies. As in any case of a knowledge deficit, what is needed are resources to address that knowledge gap. Conceiving the problem in this way, ie as a knowledge gap, indicates the crucial role of research and development activity. This term implies a concern, not simply with basic research, but also with applied research. It is commonplace in other sectors of the economy to emphasise the trichotomy of invention, innovation and diffusion of new products and processes. This three-fold conception is also relevant to addressing the knowledge gap in the mental health sector. PMID:20145728

Trends in Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Infant Mortality Rates in the United States, 1989–2006

PubMed Central

Rossen, Lauren M.; Schoendorf, Kenneth C.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We sought to measure overall disparities in pregnancy outcome, incorporating data from the many race and ethnic groups that compose the US population, to improve understanding of how disparities may have changed over time. Methods. We used Birth Cohort Linked Birth–Infant Death Data Files from US Vital Statistics from 1989–1990 and 2005–2006 to examine multigroup indices of racial and ethnic disparities in the overall infant mortality rate (IMR), preterm birth rate, and gestational age–specific IMRs. We calculated selected absolute and relative multigroup disparity metrics weighting subgroups equally and by population size. Results. Overall IMR decreased on the absolute scale, but increased on the population-weighted relative scale. Disparities in the preterm birth rate decreased on both the absolute and relative scales, and across equally weighted and population-weighted indices. Disparities in preterm IMR increased on both the absolute and relative scales. Conclusions. Infant mortality is a common bellwether of general and maternal and child health. Despite significant decreases in disparities in the preterm birth rate, relative disparities in overall and preterm IMRs increased significantly over the past 20 years. PMID:24028239

Microbial Mortality Rates in Support of Model Development in Three Distinct Ocean Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Connell, P. E.; Gellene, A. G.; Campbell, V.; Hu, S. K.; Arrigo, K. R.; Caron, D. A.

2016-02-01

Quantitative assessments of trophic interactions have become increasingly important in plankton research with the recognition that delicate balances between predators and prey strongly influence biogeochemical cycles. As the modeling community continues to increase the complexity of ecosystem models in order to improve their predictive power, understanding the balances of production and loss across spatial and seasonal scales is critical. We measured the growth and mortality rates of the total phytoplankton community and key picophytoplankton groups (Synechococcus, Prochlorococcus, and photosynthetic picoeukaryotes) using a modified dilution method, as well as bacterial mortality rates via FLB (fluorescently-labeled bacteria) disappearance incubations. Community composition was assessed using microscopy and flow cytometry. Measurements were conducted in three climatic regions: coastal waters of the Southern California Bight, The Chukchi Sea, and the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. Local seasonal variability was also assessed quarterly (January, April, July, October) in the Bight. These measurements provided insight into the relative turnover rates of key microbial groups and the microbial population dynamics of disparate ocean regimes. This study will aid our ability to construct predictive ecosystem models through the application of community composition and rate data to model parameterization.

An ecological quantification of the relationships between water, sanitation and infant, child, and maternal mortality

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Water and sanitation access are known to be related to newborn, child, and maternal health. Our study attempts to quantify these relationships globally using country-level data: How much does improving access to water and sanitation influence infant, child, and maternal mortality? Methods Data for 193 countries were abstracted from global databases (World Bank, WHO, and UNICEF). Linear regression was used for the outcomes of under-five mortality rate and infant mortality rate (IMR). These results are presented as events per 1000 live births. Ordinal logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios for the outcome of maternal mortality ratio (MMR). Results Under-five mortality rate decreased by 1.17 (95%CI 1.08-1.26) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001, for every quartile increase in population water access after adjustments for confounders. There was a similar relationship between quartile increase of sanitation access and under-five mortality rate, with a decrease of 1.66 (95%CI 1.11-1.32) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001. Improved water access was also related to IMR, with the IMR decreasing by 1.14 (95%CI 1.05-1.23) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001, with increasing quartile of access to improved water source. The significance of this relationship was retained with quartile improvement in sanitation access, where the decrease in IMR was 1.66 (95%CI 1.11-1.32) deaths per 1000, p < 0.001. The estimated odds ratio that increased quartile of water access was significantly associated with increased quartile of MMR was 0.58 (95%CI 0.39-0.86), p = 0.008. The corresponding odds ratio for sanitation was 0.52 (95%CI 0.32-0.85), p = 0.009, both suggesting that better water and sanitation were associated with decreased MMR. Conclusions Our analyses suggest that access to water and sanitation independently contribute to child and maternal mortality outcomes. If the world is to seriously address the Millennium Development Goals of reducing child and maternal mortality, then improved water and sanitation accesses are key strategies. PMID:22280473

Associations of Spatial Disparities of Alzheimer's Disease Mortality Rates with Soil Selenium and Sulfur Concentrations and Four Common Risk Factors in the United States.

PubMed

Sun, Hongbing

2017-01-01

Associations between environmental factors and spatial disparity of mortality rates of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the US are not well understood. To find associations between 41 trace elements, four common risk factors, and AD mortality rates in the48 contiguous states. Isopleth maps of AD mortality rates of the 48 states and associated factors were examined. Correlations between state average AD mortality rates and concentrations of 41 soil elements, wine consumption, percentage of current smokers, obesity, and diagnosed diabetes of the 48 states between 1999 and 2014 were analyzed. Among 41 elements, soil selenium concentrations have the most significant inverse correlations with AD mortality rates. Rate ratio (RR) of the 6 states with the lowest product of soil selenium and sulfur concentrations is 53% higher than the 6 states with the highest soil selenium sulfur product in the 48 states (RR = 1.53, CI95% 1.51-1.54). Soil tin concentrations have the most significant inverse correlation with AD mortality growth rates between 1999 and 2014, followed by soil sulfur concentrations. Percentages of obesity, diagnosed diabetes, smoking, and wine consumption per capita also correlate significantly with AD mortality growth rates. High soil selenium and sulfur concentrations and wine consumption are associated with low AD mortality rates. Given that average soil selenium and sulfur concentrations are indicators of their intakes from food, water, and air by people in a region, long-term exposure to high soil selenium and sulfur concentrations might be beneficial to AD mortality rate reduction in a region.

Population and biological parameters of selected fish species from the middle Xingu River, Amazon Basin.

PubMed

Camargo, M; Giarrizzo, T; Isaac, V J

2015-08-01

This study estimates the main biological parameters, including growth rates, asymptotic length, mortality, consumption by biomass, biological yield, and biomass, for the most abundant fish species found on the middle Xingu River, prior to the construction of the Belo Monte Dam. The specimens collected in experimental catches were analysed with empirical equations and length-based FISAT methods. For the 63 fish species studied, high growth rates (K) and high natural mortality (M) were related to early sexual maturation and low longevity. The predominance of species with short life cycles and a reduced number of age classes, determines high rates of stock turnover, which indicates high productivity for fisheries, and a low risk of overfishing.

Methods to Estimate Acclimatization to Urban Heat Island Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality.

PubMed

Milojevic, Ai; Armstrong, Ben G; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bohnenstengel, Sylvia I; Barratt, Benjamin; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-07-01

Investigators have examined whether heat mortality risk is increased in neighborhoods subject to the urban heat island (UHI) effect but have not identified degrees of difference in susceptibility to heat and cold between cool and hot areas, which we call acclimatization to the UHI. We developed methods to examine and quantify the degree of acclimatization to heat- and cold-related mortality in relation to UHI anomalies and applied these methods to London, UK. Case-crossover analyses were undertaken on 1993-2006 mortality data from London UHI decile groups defined by anomalies from the London average of modeled air temperature at a 1-km grid resolution. We estimated how UHI anomalies modified excess mortality on cold and hot days for London overall and displaced a fixed-shape temperature-mortality function ("shifted spline" model). We also compared the observed associations with those expected under no or full acclimatization to the UHI. The relative risk of death on hot versus normal days differed very little across UHI decile groups. A 1°C UHI anomaly multiplied the risk of heat death by 1.004 (95% CI: 0.950, 1.061) (interaction rate ratio) compared with the expected value of 1.070 (1.057, 1.082) if there were no acclimatization. The corresponding UHI interaction for cold was 1.020 (0.979, 1.063) versus 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) (actual versus expected under no acclimatization, respectively). Fitted splines for heat shifted little across UHI decile groups, again suggesting acclimatization. For cold, the splines shifted somewhat in the direction of no acclimatization, but did not exclude acclimatization. We have proposed two analytical methods for estimating the degree of acclimatization to the heat- and cold-related mortality burdens associated with UHIs. The results for London suggest relatively complete acclimatization to the UHI effect on summer heat-related mortality, but less clear evidence for cold-related mortality. Milojevic A, Armstrong BG, Gasparrini A, Bohnenstengel SI, Barratt B, Wilkinson P. 2016. Methods to estimate acclimatization to urban heat island effects on heat- and cold-related mortality. Environ Health Perspect 124:1016-1022; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510109.

Evaluation of Acute Aortic Dissection Type a Factors and Comparison the Postoperative Clinical Outcomes between Two Surgical Methods.

PubMed

Shemirani, Hasan; Mirmohamadsadeghi, Amir; Mahaki, Behzad; Farhadi, Sadaf; Badalabadi, Reza Mohseni; Bidram, Peyman; Badalabadi, Mehdi Mohseni

2017-01-01

Although aortic dissection is a rare disease, it causes high level of mortality. If ascending aorta gets involved in this disease, it is known as type A. According to small number of studies about this disease in Iran, this study conducted to detect the factors related to acute aortic dissection type A, its surgery consequences and the factors affecting them. In this historical cohort study, all patients having acute aortic dissection type A referring to Chamran Hospital from 2006 to 2012 were studied. The impact of two surgical methods including antegrade cerebral perfusion (ACP) and retrograde cerebral one (RCP) on surgical and long-term mortality and recurrence of dissection was determined. The relation of mortality rate and hemodynamic instability before surgery, age more than 70 years old, ejection fraction lower than 50%, prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass pump (CPBP) time and excessive blood transfusion, was assessed. Surgery and long-term mortality and recurrence of dissection were 35.3%, 30.8% and 30.4%. Surgical and long-term death in the patients being operated by ACP method was lower than those one being operated by RCP ( P < 0.001). Excessive blood transfusion and unstable hemodynamic condition had significant effect on surgical mortality ( P = 0.014, 0.030, respectively). CPBP time and unstable hemodynamic condition affected long-term mortality significantly ( P = 0.002). The result found that ACP is the preferable kind of surgery in comparison with RCP according to the surgical and long-term mortality.

Anesthesia-related mortality in pediatric patients: a systematic review.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Leopoldo Palheta; Pignaton, Wangles; Kusano, Priscila Sayuri; Módolo, Norma Sueli Pinheiro; Braz, José Reinaldo Cerqueira; Braz, Leandro Gobbo

2012-01-01

This systematic review of the Brazilian and worldwide literature aimed to evaluate the incidence and causes of perioperative and anesthesia-related mortality in pediatric patients. Studies were identified by searching EMBASE (1951-2011), PubMed (1966-2011), LILACS (1986-2011), and SciElo (1995-2011). Each paper was revised to identify the author(s), the data source, the time period, the number of patients, the time of death, and the perioperative and anesthesia-related mortality rates. Twenty trials were assessed. Studies from Brazil and developed countries worldwide documented similar total anesthesia-related mortality rates (<1 death per 10,000 anesthetics) and declines in anesthesia-related mortality rates in the past decade. Higher anesthesia-related mortality rates (2.4-3.3 per 10,000 anesthetics) were found in studies from developing countries over the same time period. Interestingly, pediatric perioperative mortality rates have increased over the past decade, and the rates are higher in Brazil (9.8 per 10,000 anesthetics) and other developing countries (10.7-15.9 per 10,000 anesthetics) compared with developed countries (0.41-6.8 per 10,000 anesthetics), with the exception of Australia (13.4 per 10,000 anesthetics). The major risk factors are being newborn or less than 1 year old, ASA III or worse physical status, and undergoing emergency surgery, general anesthesia, or cardiac surgery. The main causes of mortality were problems with airway management and cardiocirculatory events. Our systematic review of the literature shows that the pediatric anesthesia-related mortality rates in Brazil and in developed countries are similar, whereas the pediatric perioperative mortality rates are higher in Brazil compared with developed countries. Most cases of anesthesia-related mortality are associated with airway and cardiocirculatory events. The data regarding anesthesia-related and perioperative mortality rates may be useful in developing prevention strategies.

Factors related to mortality after osteoporotic hip fracture treatment at Chiang Mai University Hospital, Thailand, during 2006 and 2007.

PubMed

Chaysri, Rathasart; Leerapun, Taninnit; Klunklin, Kasisin; Chiewchantanakit, Siripong; Luevitoonvechkij, Sirichai; Rojanasthien, Sattaya

2015-01-01

To investigate the one-year mortality rate after osteoporotic hip fracture and to identify factors associated with that mortality rate. A retrospective review of 275 osteoporotic patients who sustained a low-trauma hip fracture and were admitted in Chiang Mai University Hospital during January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2007 was accomplished. Eligibility criteria were defined as age over 50 years, fracture caused by a simple fall and not apathologicalfracture caused by cancer or infection. Results of this one-year mortality rate study were compared to studies of hip fracture patient mortality in 1997 and the period 1998-2003. The average one-year mortality rate in 2006-2007 was 21.1%. Factors correlated with higher mortality were non-operative treatment, delayed surgical treatment, and absence of medical treatment for osteoporosis. The 2006-2007 mortality rate was slightly higher than for the 1997 and 1998-2003 periods. The one-year mortality rate after osteoporotic hip fracture of 21.1% was approximately 9.3 times the mortality rate for the same age group in the general population, indicating that treatment of osteoporosis as a means of helping prevent hip fracture is very important for the individual, the family, and society as a whole.

Warmer is healthier: effects on mortality rates of changes in average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and temperatures in 100 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Cox, Louis A; Popken, Douglas A; Ricci, Paolo F

2013-08-01

Recent studies have indicated that reducing particulate pollution would substantially reduce average daily mortality rates, prolonging lives, especially among the elderly (age ≥ 75). These benefits are projected by statistical models of significant positive associations between levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels and daily mortality rates. We examine the empirical correspondence between changes in average PM2.5 levels and temperatures from 1999 to 2000, and corresponding changes in average daily mortality rates, in each of 100 U.S. cities in the National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) data base, which has extensive PM2.5, temperature, and mortality data for those 2 years. Increases in average daily temperatures appear to significantly reduce average daily mortality rates, as expected from previous research. Unexpectedly, reductions in PM2.5 do not appear to cause any reductions in mortality rates. PM2.5 and mortality rates are both elevated on cold winter days, creating a significant positive statistical relation between their levels, but we find no evidence that reductions in PM2.5 concentrations cause reductions in mortality rates. For all concerned, it is crucial to use causal relations, rather than statistical associations, to project the changes in human health risks due to interventions such as reductions in particulate air pollution. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality in Patients with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: A Collaborative Analysis of Prospective Studies

PubMed Central

Boulle, Andrew; Schomaker, Michael; May, Margaret T.; Hogg, Robert S.; Shepherd, Bryan E.; Monge, Susana; Keiser, Olivia; Lampe, Fiona C.; Giddy, Janet; Ndirangu, James; Garone, Daniela; Fox, Matthew; Ingle, Suzanne M.; Reiss, Peter; Dabis, Francois; Costagliola, Dominique; Castagna, Antonella; Ehren, Kathrin; Campbell, Colin; Gill, M. John; Saag, Michael; Justice, Amy C.; Guest, Jodie; Crane, Heidi M.; Egger, Matthias; Sterne, Jonathan A. C.

2014-01-01

Background High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America. Methods and Findings Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0–3, 3–6, 6–12, 12–24, and 24–48 months on ART for the period 2001–2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37–0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27–2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage. Conclusions After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:25203931

Increased Heart Rate Is Associated With Higher Mortality in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation (AF): Results From the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of AF (ORBIT-AF)

PubMed Central

Steinberg, Benjamin A; Kim, Sunghee; Thomas, Laine; Fonarow, Gregg C; Gersh, Bernard J; Holmqvist, Fredrik; Hylek, Elaine; Kowey, Peter R; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Naccarelli, Gerald; Reiffel, James A; Chang, Paul; Peterson, Eric D; Piccini, Jonathan P

2015-01-01

Background Most patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) require rate control; however, the optimal target heart rate remains under debate. We aimed to assess rate control and subsequent outcomes among patients with permanent AF. Methods and Results We studied 2812 US outpatients with permanent AF in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation. Resting heart rate was measured longitudinally and used as a time-dependent covariate in multivariable Cox models of all-cause and cause-specific mortality during a median follow-up of 24 months. At baseline, 7.4% (n=207) had resting heart rate <60 beats per minute (bpm), 62% (n=1755) 60 to 79 bpm, 29% (n=817) 80 to 109 bpm, and 1.2% (n=33) ≥110 bpm. Groups did not differ by age, previous cerebrovascular disease, heart failure status, CHA2DS2-VASc scores, renal function, or left ventricular function. There were significant differences in race (P=0.001), sinus node dysfunction (P=0.004), and treatment with calcium-channel blockers (P=0.006) and anticoagulation (P=0.009). In analyses of continuous heart rates, lower heart rate ≤65 bpm was associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.15 per 5-bpm decrease; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.32; P=0.04). Similarly, increasing heart rate >65 bpm was associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.10 per 5-bpm increase; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.15; P<0.0001). This relationship was consistent across endpoints and in a broader sensitivity analysis of permanent and nonpermanent AF patients. Conclusions Among patients with permanent AF, there is a J-shaped relationship between heart rate and mortality. These data support current guideline recommendations, and clinical trials are warranted to determine optimal rate control. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT01165710. PMID:26370445

Mortality following the Haitian earthquake of 2010: a stratified cluster survey

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Research that seeks to better understand vulnerability to earthquakes and risk factors associated with mortality in low resource settings is critical to earthquake preparedness and response efforts. This study aims to characterize mortality and associated risk factors in the 2010 Haitian earthquake. Methods In January 2011, a survey of the earthquake affected Haitian population was conducted in metropolitan Port-au-Prince. A stratified 60x20 cluster design (n = 1200 households) was used with 30 clusters sampled in both camp and neighborhood locations. Households were surveyed regarding earthquake impact, current living conditions, and unmet needs. Results Mortality was estimated at 24 deaths (confidence interval [CI]: 20–28) per 1,000 in the sample population. Using two approaches, extrapolation of the survey mortality rate to the exposed population yielded mortality estimates ranging from a low of 49,033 to a high of 86,555. No significant difference in mortality was observed by sex (p = .786); however, age was significant with adults age 50+ years facing increased mortality risk. Odds of death were not significantly higher in camps, with 27 deaths per 1,000 (CI: 22–34), compared to neighborhoods, where the death rate was 19 per 1,000 (CI: 15–25; p = 0.080). Crowding and residence in a multistory building were also associated with increased risk of death. Conclusions Haiti earthquake mortality estimates are widely varied, though epidemiologic surveys conducted to date suggest lower levels of mortality than officially reported figures. Strategies to mitigate future mortality burden in future earthquakes should consider improvements to the built environment that are feasible in urban resource-poor settings. PMID:23618373

Leading Causes of Death and All-Cause Mortality in American Indians and Alaska Natives

PubMed Central

Jim, Melissa A.; Cobb, Nathaniel; Bartholomew, Michael; Becker, Tom; Haverkamp, Don; Plescia, Marcus

2014-01-01

Objectives. We present regional patterns and trends in all-cause mortality and leading causes of death in American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs). Methods. US National Death Index records were linked with Indian Health Service (IHS) registration records to identify AI/AN deaths misclassified as non-AI/AN. We analyzed temporal trends for 1990 to 2009 and comparisons between non-Hispanic AI/AN and non-Hispanic White persons by geographic region for 1999 to 2009. Results focus on IHS Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties in which less race misclassification occurs. Results. From 1990 to 2009 AI/AN persons did not experience the significant decreases in all-cause mortality seen for Whites. For 1999 to 2009 the all-cause death rate in CHSDA counties for AI/AN persons was 46% more than that for Whites. Death rates for AI/AN persons varied as much as 50% among regions. Except for heart disease and cancer, subsequent ranking of specific causes of death differed considerably between AI/AN and White persons. Conclusions. AI/AN populations continue to experience much higher death rates than Whites. Patterns of mortality are strongly influenced by the high incidence of diabetes, smoking prevalence, problem drinking, and social determinants. Much of the observed excess mortality can be addressed through known public health interventions. PMID:24754554

Acute hospital admissions among nursing home residents: a population-based observational study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Nursing home residents are prone to acute illness due to their high age, underlying illnesses and immobility. We examined the incidence of acute hospital admissions among nursing home residents versus the age-matched community dwelling population in a geographically defined area during a two years period. The hospital stays of the nursing home population are described according to diagnosis, length of stay and mortality. Similar studies have previously not been reported in Scandinavia. Methods The acute hospitalisations of the nursing home residents were identified through ambulance records. These were linked to hospital patient records for inclusion of demographics, diagnosis at discharge, length of stay and mortality. Incidence of hospitalisation was calculated based on patient-time at risk. Results The annual hospital admission incidence was 0.62 admissions per person-year among the nursing home residents and 0.26 among the community dwellers. In the nursing home population we found that dominant diagnoses were respiratory diseases, falls-related and circulatory diseases, accounting for 55% of the cases. The median length of stay was 3 days (interquartile range = 4). The in-hospital mortality rate was 16% and 30 day mortality after discharge 30%. Conclusion Acute hospital admission rate among nursing home residents was high in this Scandinavian setting. The pattern of diagnoses causing the admissions appears to be consistent with previous research. The in-hospital and 30 day mortality rates are high. PMID:21615911

Predictors of Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump Insertion in Coronary Surgery and Mid-Term Results

PubMed Central

Yurekli, Ismail; Celik, Ersin; Yetkin, Ufuk; Yilik, Levent; Gurbuz, Ali

2013-01-01

Background We aimed to investigate the preoperative, operative, and postoperative factors affecting intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) insertion in patients undergoing isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). We also investigated factors affecting morbidity, mortality, and survival in patients with IABP support. Methods Between January 2002 and December 2009, 1,657 patients underwent isolated CABG in İzmir Katip Celebi University Atatürk Training and Research Hospital. The number of patients requiring support with IABP was 134 (8.1%). Results In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time and prolonged operation time were independent predictive factors of IABP insertion. The postoperative mortality rate was 35.8% and 1% in patients with and without IABP support, respectively (p=0.000). Postoperative renal insufficiency, prolonged ventilatory support, and postoperative atrial fibrillation were independent predictive factors of postoperative mortality in patients with IABP support. The mean follow-up time was 38.55±22.70 months and 48.78±25.20 months in patients with and without IABP support, respectively. The follow-up mortality rate was 3% (n=4) and 5.3% (n=78) in patients with and without IABP support, respectively. Conclusion The patients with IABP support had a higher postoperative mortality rate and a longer length of intensive care unit and hospital stay. The mid-term survival was good for patients surviving the early postoperative period. PMID:24368971

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2018

PubMed Central

Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Lee, Eun Sook

2018-01-01

Purpose This study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2018 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden. Materials and Methods Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2015 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2016 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly, we only used the data of the latest trend. Results A total of 204,909 new cancer cases and 82,155 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2018. The most common cancer sites were lung, followed by stomach, colorectal, breast and liver. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For mortality, the most common sites were lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, stomach and pancreas. Conclusion The incidence rate of all cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually, mainly due to decrease of thyroid cancer. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluation of cancer-control programs. PMID:29566480

Changes in the Geographic Patterns of Heart Disease Mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Casper, Michele; Kramer, Michael R.; Quick, Harrison; Schieb, Linda J.; Vaughan, Adam S.; Greer, Sophia

2016-01-01

Background Although many studies have documented the dramatic declines in heart disease mortality in the United States at the national level, little attention has been given to the temporal changes in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality. Methods and Results Age-adjusted and spatially smoothed county-level heart disease death rates were calculated for 2-year intervals from 1973 to 1974 to 2009 to 2010 for those aged ≥35 years. Heart disease deaths were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases codes for diseases of the heart in the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. A fully Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to produce precise rate estimates, even in counties with small populations. A substantial shift in the concentration of high-rate counties from the Northeast to the Deep South was observed, along with a concentration of slow-decline counties in the South and a nearly 2-fold increase in the geographic inequality among counties. Conclusions The dramatic change in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality during 40 years highlights the importance of small-area surveillance to reveal patterns that are hidden at the national level, gives communities the historical context for understanding their current burden of heart disease, and provides important clues for understanding the determinants of the geographic disparities in heart disease mortality. PMID:27002081

Impact of consanguineous marriages and degrees of inbreeding on fertility, child mortality, secondary sex ratio, selection intensity, and genetic load: a cross-sectional study from Northern India.

PubMed

Fareed, Mohd; Kaisar Ahmad, Mir; Azeem Anwar, Malik; Afzal, Mohammad

2017-01-01

The aim of our study was to understand the relationship between consanguineous marriages and reproductive outcomes. A total of 999 families were recruited from five Muslim populations of Jammu region. Family pedigrees were drawn to access the family history and inbreeding status in terms of coefficient of inbreeding (F). Fertility, mortality, secondary sex ratio, selection intensity, and lethal equivalents were measured using standard methods. The significant differences for gross fertility was found to be higher among inbred groups as compared to the unrelated families (P < 0.05) and higher mortality rates were observed among consanguineous families of all populations in comparison with the non-consanguineous family groups. Moreover, the prenatal and postnatal child mortality rates (i.e., U5MR and U18MR) have presented a persuasive increase with an upsurge in the homozygosity level. The mortality rate was found to be maximum among families with the highest value of coefficient of inbreeding (F). The selection intensity (SI) also showed inflations among families with respect to their increasing inbreeding coefficients. The greater values of lethal equivalents per gamete (LEs/gamete) were observed for autosomal inheritance in comparison with sex-linked inheritance. Our conclusive assessment brings out the deleterious consequence of consanguineous marriages on reproductive outcomes.

[Demographic characteristics and mortality among indigenous peoples in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil].

PubMed

Ferreira, Maria Evanir Vicente; Matsuo, Tiemi; Souza, Regina Kazue Tanno de

2011-12-01

The present study aimed to assess mortality rates and related demographic factors among indigenous peoples in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Central-West Brazil, compared to the State's general population. Mortality rates were estimated based on data obtained from the Health Care Database for Indigenous Peoples and monthly patient care records as well as demographic data from the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) and mortality data from the SUS Mortality Database. Compared to the overall population, among indigenous peoples there were proportionally more individuals under 15 years of age and fewer elderly, besides higher mortality rates at early ages and from infectious and parasitic diseases. Indigenous men showed significantly higher mortality rates from external causes and respiratory and infectious diseases, while among women the mortality rates from external causes and infectious diseases were higher. Suicide rates among young indigenous individuals were also particularly alarming. Indigenous people's health conditions are worse than those of the general population in Mato Grosso do Sul.

The relationship between social stratification and all-cause mortality among children in the United States: 1968-1992.

PubMed

DiLiberti, J H

2000-01-01

US childhood poverty rates have increased for most of the past 2 decades. Although overall mortality among children has apparently fallen during this interval, these aggregate mortality rates may hide a disproportionate burden imposed on the least advantaged. This study assessed the impact of social stratification on long-term US childhood mortality rates and examined the temporal relationship between mortality attributable to social stratification and childhood poverty rates. Using US childhood mortality data obtained from the Compressed Mortality File (National Center for Health Statistics) and a county-level measure of social stratification (residential telephone availability), I evaluated the impact of social stratification on long-term trends (1968-1992) in age-adjusted mortality and compared the resulting attributable proportions to trends in childhood poverty rates. Between 1968 and 1987 the proportion of US childhood deaths attributable to social stratification decreased from.22 to.17. Subsequently, it increased to.24 in 1992, despite continuous declines in overall childhood mortality rates. These proportions correlated strongly with earlier childhood poverty rates, taking into account an apparent 9-year lag. Among black children comparable trends were not observed, although throughout this time period their mortality rates were far higher than among the rest of the population and declined more slowly. Despite declining childhood mortality rates between 1968 and 1992, children living in the least advantaged counties continued to die at higher rates than those living in the most advantaged counties. This differential worsened considerably after 1987, and by 1992 had a substantive impact on US life expectancy at birth, resulting in perhaps the most significant (in terms of years of life lost) reversal in the health of the US public in the 20th century.

Exploring the relationship between nursing hours per patient day and mortality rate of hospitalised patients in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Chun; Yen, Miaofen; Chang, Sheng-Mao; Liu, Ya-Ming

2017-03-01

To investigate the relationship between nursing hours per patient day and the inpatient mortality rate in Taiwan. Nursing hours per patient day has been associated with better patient outcomes. The literature is inconclusive on the relationship between nursing hours per patient day and the inpatient mortality rate, and no studies have yet examined this issue in Taiwan. A retrospective longitudinal study analysed data from the 'Nursing Utilization of Resources, Staffing and Environment on Outcome Study: NURSE-outcome study'. Hierarchical regression estimated the relationship between nursing hours per patient day and in-hospital mortality rate after controlling for confounding variables. The mean nursing hours per patient day in Taiwan was 2.3, while the mean inpatient mortality rate was 0.73% higher nursing hours per patient day was associated with a lower inpatient mortality rate after controlling for confounding variables. The total explained variance of this study in inpatient mortality rate was 19.9%. Significant relationships to inpatient mortality were found in levels of hospitals, seasonal variation and nurses' work experience. Nursing hours per patient day affects the mortality rate among hospitalised patients in Taiwan. According to the results, we suggested the government and managers in Taiwan double the nursing hours per patient day so that the inpatient mortality rate will decline by 1.1%. This might be the optimal nurse configuration that could provide a balance between cost-effectiveness and patient safety. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Mortality due to pesticide poisoning in Colombia, 1998-2011].

PubMed

Chaparro-Narváez, Pablo; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos

2015-08-01

Poisoning due to pesticides is an important public health problem worldwide due its morbidity and mortality. In Colombia, there are no exact data on mortality due to pesticide poisoning. To estimate the trend of mortality rate due to pesticide poisoning in Colombia between 1998 and 2011. We carried out a descriptive analysis with the database reports of death as unintentional poisoning, self-inflicted intentional poisoning, aggression with pesticides, and poisoning with non-identified intentionality, population projections between 1998 and 2011, and rurality indexes. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates were estimated and trends and Spearman coefficients were evaluated. A total of 4,835 deaths were registered (age-adjusted mortality rate of 2.38 deaths per 100,000 people). Mortality rates were higher in rural areas, for self-inflicted intentional poisoning, in men and in age groups between 15 and 39 years old. The trend has been decreasing since 2002. Municipality mortality rates due to unintentional poisoning and aggression correlated significantly with the rurality index in less rural municipalities. Mortality rates due to pesticide poisoning presented a mild decrease between 1998 and 2011. It is necessary to adjust and reinforce the measures conducive to reducing pesticide exposure in order to avoid poisoning and reduce mortality.

Identifying the determinants of premature mortality in Russia: overcoming a methodological challenge

PubMed Central

Tomkins, Susannah; Shkolnikov, Vladimir; Andreev, Evgueni; Kiryanov, Nikolay; Leon, David A; McKee, Martin; Saburova, Lyudmila

2007-01-01

Background It is thought that excessive alcohol consumption is related to the high mortality among working age men in Russia. Moreover it has been suggested that alcohol is a key proximate driver of the very sharp fluctuations in mortality seen in this group since the mid-1980s. Designing an individual-level study suitable to address the potential acute effects of alcohol consumption on mortality in Russia has posed a challenge to epidemiologists, especially because of the need to identify factors that could underlie the rapid changes up and down in mortality rates that have been such a distinctive feature of the Russian mortality crisis. In order to address this study question which focuses on exposures acting shortly before sudden death, a cohort would be unfeasibly large and would suffer from recruitment bias. Methods Although the situation in Russia is unusual, with a very high death rate characterised by many sudden and apparently unexpected deaths in young men, the methodological problem is common to research on any cause of death where many deaths are sudden. Results We describe the development of an innovative approach that has overcome some of these challenges: a case-control study employing proxy informants and external data sources to collect information about proximate determinants of mortality. Conclusion This offers a set of principles that can be adopted by epidemiologists studying sudden and unexpected deaths in other settings. PMID:18045487

Mortality and its risk factors in Malawian children admitted to hospital with clinical pneumonia, 2001–12: a retrospective observational study

PubMed Central

Lazzerini, Marzia; Seward, Nadine; Lufesi, Norman; Banda, Rosina; Sinyeka, Sophie; Masache, Gibson; Nambiar, Bejoy; Makwenda, Charles; Costello, Anthony; McCollum, Eric D; Colbourn, Tim

2017-01-01

Summary Background Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012. Methods Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi’s Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children’s clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2–11 months of age, and 12–59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models. Findings Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113 154 pneumonia cases, 104 932 (92.7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6.6% (95% CI 6.4–6.7). The case fatality rate significantly decreased between 2001 (15.2% [13.4–17.1]) and 2012 (4.5% [4.1–4.9]; ptrend<0.0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors significantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2–11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11.8%), severe undernutrition (15.4%), severe acute malnutrition (34.8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9.0%). Interpretation Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specific subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of sufficient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of effective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi. PMID:26718810

Mortality Among Very Low-Birthweight Infants in Hospitals Serving Minority Populations

PubMed Central

Morales, Leo S.; Staiger, Douglas; Horbar, Jeffrey D.; Carpenter, Joseph; Kenny, Michael; Geppert, Jeffrey; Rogowski, Jeannette

2005-01-01

Objective. We investigated whether the proportion of Black very low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants treated by hospitals is associated with neonatal mortality for Black and White VLBW infants. Methods. We analyzed medical records linked to secondary data sources for 74050 Black and White VLBW infants (501 g to 1500 g) treated by 332 hospitals participating in the Vermont Oxford Network from 1995 to 2000. Hospitals where more than 35% of VLBW infants treated were Black were defined as “minority-serving.” Results. Compared with hospitals where less than 15% of the VLBW infants were Black, minority-serving hospitals had significantly higher risk-adjusted neonatal mortality rates (White infants: odds ratio [OR]=1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09, 1.56; Black infants: OR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.64; Pooled: OR = 1.28, 95% CI=1.10, 1.50). Higher neonatal mortality in minority-serving hospitals was not explained by either hospital or treatment variables. Conclusions. Minority-serving hospitals may provide lower quality of care to VLBW infants compared with other hospitals. Because VLBW Black infants are disproportionately treated by minority-serving hospitals, higher neonatal mortality rates at these hospitals may contribute to racial disparities in infant mortality in the United States. PMID:16304133

Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.; Byrne, J.C.; Daniels, L.D.; Franklin, J.F.; Fule, P.Z.; Harmon, M.E.; Larson, A.J.; Smith, Joseph M.; Taylor, A.H.; Veblen, T.T.

2009-01-01

Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. Our analyses of longitudinal data from unmanaged old forests in the western United States showed that background (noncatastrophic) mortality rates have increased rapidly in recent decades, with doubling periods ranging from 17 to 29 years among regions. Increases were also pervasive across elevations, tree sizes, dominant genera, and past fire histories. Forest density and basal area declined slightly, which suggests that increasing mortality was not caused by endogenous increases in competition. Because mortality increased in small trees, the overall increase in mortality rates cannot be attributed solely to aging of large trees. Regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits are likely contributors to the increases in tree mortality rates.

Widening Educational Disparities in Premature Death Rates in Twenty Six States in the United States, 1993–2007

PubMed Central

Ma, Jiemin; Xu, Jiaquan; Anderson, Robert N.; Jemal, Ahmedin

2012-01-01

Background Eliminating socioeconomic disparities in health is an overarching goal of the U.S. Healthy People decennial initiatives. We present recent trends in mortality by education among working-aged populations. Methods and Findings Age-standardized death rates and their average annual percent change for all-cause and five major causes (cancer, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and accidents) were calculated from 1993 through 2007 for individuals aged 25–64 years by educational attainment as a marker of socioeconomic status, using national vital registration data for 26 states with consistent educational information on the death certificates. Rate ratios and rate differences were used to assess disparities (≤12 versus ≥16 years of education) for 1993 through 2007. From 1993 through 2007, relative educational disparities in all-cause mortality continued to increase among working-aged men and women in the U.S., due to larger decreases of mortality rates among the most educated coupled with smaller decreases or even worsening trends in the less educated. For example, the rate ratios of all-cause mortality increased from 2.5 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.4–2.6) in 1993 to 3.6 (95% CI, 3.5–3.7) in 2007 in men and from 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8–2.0) to 3.0 (95% CI, 2.9–3.1) in women. Generally, the rate differences (per 100,000 persons) of all-cause mortality increased from 415.5 (95% CI, 399.1–431.9) in 1993 to 472.7 (95% CI, 460.2–485.2) in 2007 in men and from 165.4 (95% CI, 154.5–176.2) to 256.2 (95% CI, 248.3–264.2) in women. Disparity patterns varied largely across the five specific causes considered in this study, with the largest increases of relative disparities for accidents, especially in women. Conclusions Relative educational differentials in mortality continued to widen among men and women despite emphasis on reducing disparities in the U.S. Healthy People decennial initiatives. PMID:22911814

Ischaemic heart disease in the former Soviet Union 1990–2015 according to the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study

PubMed Central

Murphy, Adrianna; Johnson, Catherine O; Roth, Gregory A; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Naghavi, Mohsen; Ng, Marie; Pogosova, Nana; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Moran, Andrew E

2018-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to compare ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and risk factor burden across former Soviet Union (fSU) and satellite countries and regions in 1990 and 2015. Methods The fSU and satellite countries were grouped into Central Asian, Central European and Eastern European regions. IHD mortality data for men and women of any age were gathered from national vital registration, and age, sex, country, year-specific IHD mortality rates were estimated in an ensemble model. IHD morbidity and mortality burden attributable to risk factors was estimated by comparative risk assessment using population attributable fractions. Results In 2015, age-standardised IHD death rates in Eastern European and Central Asian fSU countries were almost two times that of satellite states of Central Europe. Between 1990 and 2015, rates decreased substantially in Central Europe (men −43.5% (95% uncertainty interval −45.0%, −42.0%); women −42.9% (−44.0%, −41.0%)) but less in Eastern Europe (men −5.6% (−9.0, –3.0); women −12.2% (−15.5%, −9.0%)). Age-standardised IHD death rates also varied within regions: within Eastern Europe, rates decreased −51.7% in Estonian men (−54.0, −47.0) but increased +19.4% in Belarusian men (+12.0, +27.0). High blood pressure and cholesterol were leading risk factors for IHD burden, with smoking, body mass index, dietary factors and ambient air pollution also ranking high. Conclusions Some fSU countries continue to experience a high IHD burden, while others have achieved remarkable reductions in IHD mortality. Control of blood pressure, cholesterol and smoking are IHD prevention priorities. PMID:28883037

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

PubMed Central

Haagsma, Juanita A; Graetz, Nicholas; Bolliger, Ian; Naghavi, Mohsen; Higashi, Hideki; Mullany, Erin C; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraham, Jerry Puthenpurakal; Adofo, Koranteng; Alsharif, Ubai; Ameh, Emmanuel A; Ammar, Walid; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Barrero, Lope H; Bekele, Tolesa; Bose, Dipan; Brazinova, Alexandra; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Derrett, Sarah; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Driscoll, Tim R; Duan, Leilei; Petrovich Ermakov, Sergey; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L; Gabbe, Belinda; Gosselin, Richard A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hijar, Martha; Hu, Guoqing; Jayaraman, Sudha P; Jiang, Guohong; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Kulkarni, Chanda; Lecky, Fiona E; Leung, Ricky; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan Anthony; Majdan, Marek; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Matzopoulos, Richard; Meaney, Peter A; Mekonnen, Wubegzier; Miller, Ted R; Mock, Charles N; Norman, Rosana E; Polinder, Suzanne; Pourmalek, Farshad; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Refaat, Amany; Rojas-Rueda, David; Roy, Nobhojit; Schwebel, David C; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Skirbekk, Vegard; Søreide, Kjetil; Soshnikov, Sergey; Stein, Dan J; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Temesgen, Awoke Misganaw; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah; Theadom, Alice M; Tran, Bach Xuan; Vasankari, Tommi J; Vavilala, Monica S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; Murray, Christopher J L; Vos, Theo

2016-01-01

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made. PMID:26635210

Prevalence and underlying etiologies of neonatal hypoglycemia.

PubMed

Najati, N; Saboktakin, L

2010-08-01

This study aims at determining the prevalence of neonatal hypoglycemia and its underlying causes. In this prospective study 14168 newborns delivered in Tabriz Alzahra Hospital during 2 years were evaluated in regard to blood glucose level at first 24 h of life. Glucose oxidase method with 4-aminophenazone with a Greiner G-300 was the used method for determining the blood glucose level. Cases with blood glucose < 50 mg dL(-1) were considered as hypoglycemic newborns. Underlying causes of this condition, as well as the short-term mortality rate were determined. Prevalence of neonatal hypoglycemia was 0.4% (52 newborns). Underlying causes of hypoglycemia were prematurity (61.5%), diabetic mother (13.6%), septicemia (9.6%), perinatal asphyxia (9.6%), stress (3.8%) and neonatal hyperinsulinism (1.9%). The mortality rate was 53.8%, with prematurity as the leading cause of death.

Do Mortality Rates in Eating Disorders Change over Time? A Longitudinal Look at Anorexia Nervosa and Bulimia Nervosa

PubMed Central

Franko, Debra L.; Keshaviah, Aparna; Eddy, Kamryn T.; Krishna, Meera; Davis, Martha C.; Keel, Pamela K.; Herzog, David B.

2014-01-01

Objective Although anorexia nervosa has a high mortality rate, our understanding of the timing and predictors of mortality in eating disorders is limited. The authors investigated mortality in a long-term study of patients with eating disorders. Method Beginning in 1987, 246 treatment-seeking women with anorexia nervosa or bulimia nervosa were interviewed every 6 months for a median of 9.5 years to obtain weekly ratings of eating disorder symptoms, comorbidity, treatment participation, and psychosocial functioning. From January 2007 to December 2010 (median follow-up of 20 years), vital status was ascertained with a National Death Index search. Results Sixteen deaths (6.5%) were recorded (lifetime anorexia nervosa, N=14; bulimia nervosa with no history of anorexia nervosa, N=2). The standardized mortality ratio was 4.37 [95% CI=2.4-7.3] for lifetime anorexia nervosa and 2.33 [95% CI=0.3-8.4] for bulimia nervosa with no history of anorexia nervosa. Risk of premature death among women with lifetime anorexia nervosa peaked within the first 10 years of follow-up resulting in a standardized mortality ratio of 7.7 [95% CI=3.7-14.2]. The standardized mortality ratio varied by duration of illness and was 3.2 [95% CI=0.9-8.3] for women with lifetime anorexia nervosa for 0-15 years (4/119 died), and 6.6 [95% CI=3.2-12.1] for women with lifetime anorexia nervosa for >15-30 years (10/67 died). Multivariate predictors of mortality included alcohol abuse (p<0.0001), low body mass index (p=0.0005), and poor social adjustment (p=0.0090). Conclusions These findings highlight the need for early identification and intervention and suggest that a long duration of illness, substance abuse, low weight, and/or poor psychosocial functioning raise the risk for mortality in anorexia nervosa. PMID:23771148

Hospital Variation in Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Sepsis Mortality.

PubMed

Ames, Stefanie G; Davis, Billie S; Angus, Derek C; Carcillo, Joseph A; Kahn, Jeremy M

2018-05-01

With continued attention to pediatric sepsis at both the clinical and policy levels, it is important to understand the quality of hospitals in terms of their pediatric sepsis mortality. We sought to develop a method to evaluate hospital pediatric sepsis performance using 30-day risk-adjusted mortality and to assess hospital variation in risk-adjusted sepsis mortality in a large state-wide sample. Retrospective cohort study using administrative claims data. Acute care hospitals in the state of Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2013. Patients between the ages of 0-19 years admitted to a hospital with sepsis defined using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification, diagnosis and procedure codes. None. During the study period, there were 9,013 pediatric sepsis encounters in 153 hospitals. After excluding repeat visits and hospitals with annual patient volumes too small to reliably assess hospital performance, there were 6,468 unique encounters in 24 hospitals. The overall unadjusted mortality rate was 6.5% (range across all hospitals: 1.5-11.9%). The median number of pediatric sepsis cases per hospital was 67 (range across all hospitals: 30-1,858). A hierarchical logistic regression model for 30-day risk-adjusted mortality controlling for patient age, gender, emergency department admission, infection source, presence of organ dysfunction at admission, and presence of chronic complex conditions showed good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.80) and calibration (slope and intercept of calibration plot: 0.95 and -0.01, respectively). The hospital-specific risk-adjusted mortality rates calculated from this model varied minimally, ranging from 6.0% to 7.4%. Although a risk-adjustment model for 30-day pediatric sepsis mortality had good performance characteristics, the use of risk-adjusted mortality rates as a hospital quality measure in pediatric sepsis is not useful due to the low volume of cases at most hospitals. Novel metrics to evaluate the quality of pediatric sepsis care are needed.

Slowdown in the decline of stroke mortality in the United States, 1978-1986.

PubMed

Cooper, R; Sempos, C; Hsieh, S C; Kovar, M G

1990-09-01

The gradual decline in stroke mortality rates observed in the United States since 1900 accelerated markedly around 1973 for whites and around 1968 for blacks. During the next decade stroke mortality rates decreased by almost 50% so that the United States now experiences one of the lowest stroke mortality rates in the world. Beginning in 1979, however the annual rate of decline in stroke mortality began to slow considerably. Comparing the period 1979-1986 with the previous decade, a 57% slowing in the absolute rate of decline (as estimated by the slope of the linear portion of the mortality curve) was observed for white men; the corresponding slowdowns in the rate of decline were 58% for white women, 44% for black men, and 62% for black women. If the decline during the 1980s had continued at the rate observed for the period 1968/73-1978, there would have been 131,000 fewer stroke deaths during the period 1979-1986, 28,000 fewer in 1986 alone. This slowdown in the rate of decline in stroke mortality is occurring while mortality rates for both coronary heart disease and all causes are leveling off. The reasons for this change in the mortality trend remain unknown, and corresponding trends in the treatment and control of hypertension do not provide an entirely satisfactory explanation.

Buprenorphine physician supply: Relationship with state-level prescription opioid mortality

PubMed Central

Havens, Jennifer R.; Lofwall, Michelle R.; Studts, Jamie L.; Walsh, Sharon L.

2017-01-01

Background Buprenorphine is an effective treatment for opioid use disorder but the supply of buprenorphine physicians is currently inadequate to address the nation’s prescription opioid crisis. Perception of need due to rising opioid overdose rates is one possible reason for physicians to adopt buprenorphine. This study examined associations between rates of growth in buprenorphine physicians and prescription opioid overdose mortality rates in US states. Methods The total buprenorphine physician supply and number of physicians approved to treat 100 patients (per 100,000 population) were measured from June, 2013 to January, 2016. States were divided into two groups: those with rates of prescription opioid overdose mortality in 2013 at or above the median (>5.5 deaths per 100,000 population) and those with rates below the median. State-level growth curves were estimated using mixed-effects regression to compare rates of growth between high and low overdose states. Results The total supply and the supply of 100-patient buprenorphine physicians grew significantly (total supply from 7.7 to 9.9 per 100,000 population, p<.001; 100-patient supply from 2.2 to 3.4 per 100,000 population, p<.001). Rates of growth were significantly greater in high overdose states when compared to low overdose states (total supply b=.033, p<.01; 100-patient b=.022, p<.01). Conclusions The magnitude of the US prescription opioid crisis, as measured by the rate of prescription opioid overdose mortality, is associated with growth in the number of buprenorphine physicians. Because this observational design cannot establish causality, further research is needed to elucidate the factors influencing physicians’ decisions to begin prescribing buprenorphine. PMID:28363321

Suicide in young men.

PubMed

Pitman, Alexandra; Krysinska, Karolina; Osborn, David; King, Michael

2012-06-23

Suicide is second to only accidental death as the leading cause of mortality in young men across the world. Although suicide rates for young men have fallen in some high-income and middle-income countries since the 1990s, wider mortality measures indicate that rates remain high in specific regions, ethnic groups, and socioeconomic groups within those nations where rates have fallen, and that young men account for a substantial proportion of the economic cost of suicide. High-lethality methods of suicide are preferred by young men: hanging and firearms in high-income countries, pesticide poisoning in the Indian subcontinent, and charcoal-burning in east Asia. Risk factors for young men include psychiatric illness, substance misuse, lower socioeconomic status, rural residence, and single marital status. Population-level factors include unemployment, social deprivation, and media reporting of suicide. Few interventions to reduce suicides in young men have been assessed. Efforts to change help-seeking behaviour and to restrict access to frequently used methods hold the most promise. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.