Population attributable risks of patient, child and organizational risk factors for perinatal mortality in hospital births.

PubMed

Poeran, Jashvant; Borsboom, Gerard J J M; de Graaf, Johanna P; Birnie, Erwin; Steegers, Eric A P; Bonsel, Gouke J

2015-04-01

The main objective of this study was to estimate the contributing role of maternal, child, and organizational risk factors in perinatal mortality by calculating their population attributable risks (PAR). The primary dataset comprised 1,020,749 singleton hospital births from ≥22 weeks' gestation (The Netherlands Perinatal Registry 2000-2008). PARs for single and grouped risk factors were estimated in four stages: (1) creating a duplicate dataset for each PAR analysis in which risk factors of interest were set to the most favorable value (e.g., all women assigned 'Western' for PAR calculation of ethnicity); (2) in the primary dataset an elaborate multilevel logistic regression model was fitted from which (3) the obtained coefficients were used to predict perinatal mortality in each duplicate dataset; (4) PARs were then estimated as the proportional change of predicted- compared to observed perinatal mortality. Additionally, PARs for grouped risk factors were estimated by using sequential values in two orders: after PAR estimation of grouped maternal risk factors, the resulting PARs for grouped child, and grouped organizational factors were estimated, and vice versa. The combined PAR of maternal, child and organizational factors is 94.4 %, i.e., when all factors are set to the most favorable value perinatal mortality is expected to be reduced with 94.4 %. Depending on the order of analysis, the PAR of maternal risk factors varies from 1.4 to 13.1 %, and for child- and organizational factors 58.7-74.0 and 7.3-34.3 %, respectively. In conclusion, the PAR of maternal-, child- and organizational factors combined is 94.4 %. Optimization of organizational factors may achieve a 34.3 % decrease in perinatal mortality.

Risk factors for anastomotic leak and postoperative morbidity and mortality after elective right colectomy for cancer: results from a prospective, multicentric study of 1102 patients.

PubMed

Frasson, Matteo; Granero-Castro, Pablo; Ramos Rodríguez, José Luis; Flor-Lorente, Blas; Braithwaite, Mariela; Martí Martínez, Eva; Álvarez Pérez, Jose Antonio; Codina Cazador, Antonio; Espí, Alejandro; Garcia-Granero, Eduardo

2016-01-01

Studies focused on postoperative outcome after oncologic right colectomy are lacking. The main objective was to determine pre-/intraoperative risk factors for anastomotic leak after elective right colon resection for cancer. Secondary objectives were to determine risk factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality. Fifty-two hospitals participated in this prospective, observational study (September 2011-September 2012), including 1102 patients that underwent elective right colectomy. Forty-two pre-/intraoperative variables, related to patient, tumor, surgical procedure, and hospital, were analyzed as potential independent risk factors for anastomotic leak and postoperative morbidity and mortality. Anastomotic leak was diagnosed in 93 patients (8.4 %), and 72 (6.5 %) of them needed radiological or surgical intervention. Morbidity, mortality, and wound infection rates were 29.0, 2.6, and 13.4 %, respectively. Preoperative serum protein concentration was the only independent risk factor for anastomotic leak (p < 0.0001, OR 0.6 per g/dL). When considering only clinically relevant anastomotic leaks, stapled technique (p = 0.03, OR 2.1) and preoperative serum protein concentration (p = 0.004, OR 0.6 g/dL) were identified as the only two independent risk factors. Age and preoperative serum albumin concentration resulted to be risk factors for postoperative mortality. Male gender, pulmonary or hepatic disease, and open surgical approach were identified as risk factors for postoperative morbidity, while male gender, obesity, intraoperative complication, and end-to-end anastomosis were risk factors for wound infection. Preoperative nutritional status and the stapled anastomotic technique were the only independent risk factors for clinically relevant anastomotic leak after elective right colectomy for cancer. Age and preoperative nutritional status determined the mortality risk, while laparoscopic approach reduced postoperative morbidity.

Socioeconomic and Behavioral Risk Factors for Mortality in a National 19-Year Prospective Study of U.S. Adults

PubMed Central

Lantz, Paula M.; Golberstein, Ezra; House, James S.; Morenoff, Jeffrey D.

2012-01-01

Many demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral risk factors predict mortality in the United States. However, very few population-based longitudinal studies are able to investigate simultaneously the impact of a variety of social factors on mortality. We investigated the degree to which demographic characteristics, socioeconomic variables and major health risk factors were associated with mortality in a nationally-representative sample of 3,617 U.S. adults from 1986-2005, using data from the 4 waves of the Americans’ Changing Lives study. Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying covariates were employed to predict all-cause mortality verified through the National Death Index and death certificate review. The results revealed that low educational attainment was not associated with mortality when income and health risk behaviors were included in the model. The association of low-income with mortality remained after controlling for major behavioral risks. Compared to those in the “normal” weight category, neither overweight nor obesity was significantly associated with the risk of mortality. Among adults age 55 and older at baseline, the risk of mortality was actually reduced for those were overweight (hazard rate ratio=0.83, 95% C.I. = 0.71 – 0.98) and those who were obese (hazard rate ratio=0.68, 95% C.I. = 0.55 – 0.84), controlling for other health risk behaviors and health status. Having a low level of physical activity was a significant risk factor for mortality (hazard rate ratio=1.58, 95% C.I. = 1.20 – 2.07). The results from this national longitudinal study underscore the need for health policies and clinical interventions focusing on the social and behavioral determinants of health, with a particular focus on income security, smoking prevention/cessation, and physical activity. PMID:20226579

Lifestyle Risk Factors Predict Disability and Death in Healthy Aging Adults

PubMed Central

Chakravarty, Eliza F.; Hubert, Helen B.; Krishnan, Eswar; Bruce, Bonnie B.; Lingala, Vijaya B.; Fries, James F.

2011-01-01

Background Associations between modifiable health risk factors during middle age with disability and mortality in later life are critical to maximizing longevity while preserving function. Positive health effects of maintaining normal weight, routine exercise, and non-smoking are known for the short and intermediate term. We studied the effects of these risk factors into advanced age. Methods A cohort of 2,327 college alumnae ≥60 years was followed annually (1986–2005) by questionnaires addressing health risk factors, history, and Health Assessment Questionnaire disability (HAQ-DI). Mortality data were ascertained from the National Death Index. Low, medium, and high risk groups were created based upon the number (0, 1, ≥2) of health risk factors (overweight, smoking, inactivity) at baseline. Disability and mortality for each group were estimated from unadjusted data and regression analyses. Multivariable survival analyses estimated time to disability or death. Results Medium and high-risk groups had higher disability than the low risk group throughout the study (p<0.001). Low-risk subjects had onset of moderate disability delayed 8.3 years compared with high-risk. Mortality rates were higher in the high risk group (384 versus 247 per 10,000 person-years). Multivariable survival analyses showed the number of risk factors to be associated with cumulative disability and increased mortality. Conclusions Seniors with fewer behavioral risk factors during middle age have lower disability and improved survival. These data document that the associations of lifestyle risk factors upon health continue into the ninth decade. PMID:22269623

Reaction Time and Established Risk Factors for Total and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Comparison of Effect Estimates in the Follow-Up of a Large, UK-Wide, General-Population Based Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Beverly A.; Der, Geoff; Deary, Ian J.; Batty, G. David

2009-01-01

Higher cognitive function is associated with faster choice reaction time (CRT), and both are associated with a reduced risk of mortality from all-causes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, comparison of the predictive capacity of CRT, an emerging risk factor, with that for established "classic" risk factors for mortality, such as…

Do repeated risk factor measurements influence the impact of education on cardiovascular mortality?

PubMed

Ariansen, Inger; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Stigum, Hein; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Wills, Andrew K; Næss, Øyvind

2015-12-01

It has been questioned if the excess cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality by lower educational level can be fully explained by conventional modifiable CVD risk factors. Our objective was to examine whether repeated measures over time of risk factors (smoking, physical inactivity, blood pressure, total cholesterol and body mass index) explain more of the socioeconomic gradient in CVD mortality than if they are measured only once. A cohort of 34 884 men and women attended all three screenings (1974-1978, 1977-1983 and 1985-1988) in the Norwegian Counties Study and were followed for CVD mortality through 2009 by linkage to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR of CVD mortality was 2.32 (95% CI 1.93 to 2.80) for basic relative to tertiary educated individuals. The HR was attenuated by 48% (HR 1.54 (1.28 to 1.87)) when adjusted for CVD risk factors measured at baseline and by 56% (HR 1.45 (1.20 to 1.75)) when two repeated measurements ascertained 5 years apart were added to the model. Similarly, absolute risk difference in CVD mortality by education was attenuated by 62% when adjusted for baseline and by 72% when adjusted for repeated measurements of risk factors. In this cohort, repeated measurements of risk factors seemed to explain more of the educational gradient in CVD mortality. This suggests that a substantial part of the excess CVD mortality among those with lower education might be explained by conventional risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Applying Latent Class Analysis to Risk Stratification for Perioperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Intraabdominal General Surgery.

PubMed

Kim, Minjae; Wall, Melanie M; Li, Guohua

2016-07-01

Perioperative risk stratification is often performed using individual risk factors without consideration of the syndemic of these risk factors. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify the classes of comorbidities and risk factors associated with perioperative mortality in patients presenting for intraabdominal general surgery. The 2005 to 2010 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to obtain a cohort of patients undergoing intraabdominal general surgery. Risk factors and comorbidities were entered into LCA models to identify the latent classes, and individuals were assigned to a class based on the highest posterior probability of class membership. Relative risk regression was used to determine the associations between the latent classes and 30-day mortality, with adjustments for procedure. A 9-class model was fit using LCA on 466,177 observations. After combining classes with similar adjusted mortality risks, 5 risk classes were obtained. Compared with the class with average mortality risk (class 4), the risk ratios (95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.020 (0.014-0.027) in the lowest risk class (class 1) to 6.75 (6.46-7.02) in the highest risk class. After adjusting for procedure and ASA physical status, the latent classes remained significantly associated with 30-day mortality. The addition of the risk class variable to a model containing ASA physical status and surgical procedure demonstrated a significant increase in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.892 vs 0.915; P < 0.0001). Latent classes of risk factors and comorbidities in patients undergoing intraabdominal surgery are predictive of 30-day mortality independent of the ASA physical status and improve risk prediction with the ASA physical status.

Factors Increasing Vulnerability to Health Effects before, during and after Floods

PubMed Central

Lowe, Dianne; Ebi, Kristie L.; Forsberg, Bertil

2013-01-01

Identifying the risk factors for morbidity and mortality effects pre-, during and post-flood may aid the appropriate targeting of flood-related adverse health prevention strategies. We conducted a systematic PubMed search to identify studies examining risk factors for health effects of precipitation-related floods, among Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) member countries. Research identifying flood-related morbidity and mortality risk factors is limited and primarily examines demographic characteristics such as age and gender. During floods, females, elderly and children appear to be at greater risk of psychological and physical health effects, while males between 10 to 29 years may be at greater risk of mortality. Post-flood, those over 65 years and males are at increased risk of physical health effects, while females appear at greater risk of psychological health effects. Other risk factors include previous flood experiences, greater flood depth or flood trauma, existing illnesses, medication interruption, and low education or socio-economic status. Tailoring messages to high-risk groups may increase their effectiveness. Target populations differ for morbidity and mortality effects, and differ pre-, during, and post-flood. Additional research is required to identify the risk factors associated with pre- and post-flood mortality and post-flood morbidity, preferably using prospective cohort studies. PMID:24336027

Factors increasing vulnerability to health effects before, during and after floods.

PubMed

Lowe, Dianne; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

2013-12-11

Identifying the risk factors for morbidity and mortality effects pre-, during and post-flood may aid the appropriate targeting of flood-related adverse health prevention strategies. We conducted a systematic PubMed search to identify studies examining risk factors for health effects of precipitation-related floods, among Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) member countries. Research identifying flood-related morbidity and mortality risk factors is limited and primarily examines demographic characteristics such as age and gender. During floods, females, elderly and children appear to be at greater risk of psychological and physical health effects, while males between 10 to 29 years may be at greater risk of mortality. Post-flood, those over 65 years and males are at increased risk of physical health effects, while females appear at greater risk of psychological health effects. Other risk factors include previous flood experiences, greater flood depth or flood trauma, existing illnesses, medication interruption, and low education or socio-economic status. Tailoring messages to high-risk groups may increase their effectiveness. Target populations differ for morbidity and mortality effects, and differ pre-, during, and post-flood. Additional research is required to identify the risk factors associated with pre- and post-flood mortality and post-flood morbidity, preferably using prospective cohort studies.

[Risks factors associated with intra-partum foetal mortality in pre-term infants].

PubMed

Zeballos Sarrato, Susana; Villar Castro, Sonia; Ramos Navarro, Cristina; Zeballos Sarrato, Gonzalo; Sánchez Luna, Manuel

2017-03-01

Pre-term delivery is one of the leading causes of foetal and perinatal mortality. However, perinatal risk factors associated with intra-partum foetal death in preterm deliveries have not been well studied. To analyse foetal mortality and perinatal risk factors associated with intra-partum foetal mortality in pregnancies of less than 32 weeks gestational age. The study included all preterm deliveries between 22 and 31 +1 weeks gestational age (WGA), born in a tertiary-referral hospital, over a period of 7 years (2008-2014). A logistic regression model was used to identify perinatal risk factors associated with intra-partum foetal mortality (foetal malformations and chromosomal abnormalities were excluded). During the study period, the overall foetal mortality was 63.1% (106/168) (≥22 weeks of gestation) occurred in pregnancies of less than 32 WGA. A total of 882 deliveries between 22 and 31+6 weeks of gestation were included for analysis. The rate of foetal mortality was 11.3% (100/882). The rate of intra-partum foetal death was 2.6% (23/882), with 78.2% (18/23) of these cases occurring in hospitalised pregnancies. It was found that Assisted Reproductive Techniques, abnormal foetal ultrasound, no administration of antenatal steroids, lower gestational age, and small for gestational age, were independent risk factors associated with intra-partum foetal mortality. This study showed that there is a significant percentage intra-partum foetal mortality in infants between 22 and 31+6 WGA. The analysis of intrapartum mortality and risk factors associated with this mortality is of clinical and epidemiological interest to optimise perinatal care and improve survival of preterm infants. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Gaming in risk-adjusted mortality rates: effect of misclassification of risk factors in the benchmarking of cardiac surgery risk-adjusted mortality rates.

PubMed

Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Versteegh, Michel I M; Noyez, Luc; ter Burg, Willem Jan P P; Bots, Michiel L; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A

2013-03-01

Upcoding or undercoding of risk factors could affect the benchmarking of risk-adjusted mortality rates. The aim was to investigate the effect of misclassification of risk factors on the benchmarking of mortality rates after cardiac surgery. A prospective cohort was used comprising all adult cardiac surgery patients in all 16 cardiothoracic centers in The Netherlands from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009. A random effects model, including the logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) was used to benchmark the in-hospital mortality rates. We simulated upcoding and undercoding of 5 selected variables in the patients from 1 center. These patients were selected randomly (nondifferential misclassification) or by the EuroSCORE (differential misclassification). In the random patients, substantial misclassification was required to affect benchmarking: a 1.8-fold increase in prevalence of the 4 risk factors changed an underperforming center into an average performing one. Upcoding of 1 variable required even more. When patients with the greatest EuroSCORE were upcoded (ie, differential misclassification), a 1.1-fold increase was sufficient: moderate left ventricular function from 14.2% to 15.7%, poor left ventricular function from 8.4% to 9.3%, recent myocardial infarction from 7.9% to 8.6%, and extracardiac arteriopathy from 9.0% to 9.8%. Benchmarking using risk-adjusted mortality rates can be manipulated by misclassification of the EuroSCORE risk factors. Misclassification of random patients or of single variables will have little effect. However, limited upcoding of multiple risk factors in high-risk patients can greatly influence benchmarking. To minimize "gaming," the prevalence of all risk factors should be carefully monitored. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors Associated with Mortality and Increased Drug Costs in Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Lu, Mingliang; Sun, Gang; Zhang, Xiu-li; Zhang, Xiao-mei; Liu, Qing-sen; Huang, Qi-yang; Lau, James W Y; Yang, Yun-sheng

2015-06-01

To determine risk factors associated with mortality and increased drug costs in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We retrospectively analyzed data from patients hospitalized with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding between January 2001-December 2011. Demographic and clinical characteristics and drug costs were documented. Univariate analysis determined possible risk factors for mortality. Statistically significant variables were analyzed using a logistic regression model. Multiple linear regression analyzed factors influencing drug costs. p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The study included data from 627 patients. Risk factors associated with increased mortality were age > 60, systolic blood pressure<100 mmHg, lack of endoscopic examination, comorbidities, blood transfusion, and rebleeding. Drug costs were higher in patients with rebleeding, blood transfusion, and prolonged hospital stay. In this patient cohort, re-bleeding rate is 11.20% and mortality is 5.74%. The mortality risk in patients with comorbidities was higher than in patients without comorbidities, and was higher in patients requiring blood transfusion than in patients not requiring transfusion. Rebleeding was associ-ated with mortality. Rebleeding, blood transfusion, and prolonged hospital stay were associated with increased drug costs, whereas bleeding from lesions in the esophagus and duodenum was associated with lower drug costs.

Analysis of risk factors for infant mortality in the 1992-3 and 2002-3 birth cohorts in rural Guinea-Bissau.

PubMed

Byberg, Stine; Østergaard, Marie D; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Martins, Cesario; Benn, Christine S; Aaby, Peter; Fisker, Ane B

2017-01-01

Though still high, the infant mortality rate in Guinea-Bissau has declined. We aimed to identify risk factors including vaccination coverage, for infant mortality in the rural population of Guinea-Bissau and assess whether these risk factors changed from 1992-3 to 2002-3. The Bandim Health Project (BHP) continuously surveys children in rural Guinea-Bissau. We investigated the association between maternal and infant factors (especially DTP and measles coverage) and infant mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using Cox regression. We tested for interactions with sex, age groups (defined by current vaccination schedule) and cohort to assess whether the risk factors were the same for boys and girls, in different age groups in 1992-3 and in 2002-3. The infant mortality rate declined from 148/1000 person years (PYRS) in 1992-3 to 124/1000 PYRS in 2002-3 (HR = 0.88;95%CI:0.77-0.99); this decline was significant for girls (0.77;0.64-0.94) but not for boys (0.97;0.82-1.15) (p = 0.10 for interaction). Risk factors did not differ significantly by cohort in either distribution or effect. Mortality decline was most marked among girls aged 9-11 months (0.56;0.37-0.83). There was no significant mortality decline for girls 1.5-8 months of age (0.93;0.68-1.28) (p = 0.05 for interaction). DTP and measles coverage increased from 1992-3 to 2002-3. Risk factors did not change with the decline in mortality. Due to beneficial non-specific effects for girls, the increased coverage of measles vaccination may have contributed to the disproportional decline in mortality by sex and age group.

Psychiatric symptoms are not an independent mortality risk factor in community-living elderly people.

PubMed

Benabarre, Sergio; Olivera, Javier; Lorente, Teófilo; Rodriguez, Mariano; Barros-Loscertales, Alfonso; Pelegrín, Carmelo; Claver, Paula; Galindo, Izarbe; Labarta, María; Rodriguez, Jara

2014-06-01

Mortality risk factors have attracted great research interest in recent years. Physical illness is strongly associated with mortality risk in elderly people. Furthermore, a relationship between mortality risk and psychiatric disease in the elderly has gained research interest. This is a prospective longitudinal multicenter study. A sample of 324 participants was selected as a representative sample of community members aged 65 years and older and living in Huesca (Spain). The following information was collected: affiliation data, severity of physical illness, psychosocial, and psychiatric factors. Statistical analyses were completed with a multivariate analysis in order to control possible confounding variables related to mortality. Of the initially selected sample, 293 participants were assessed. Sixty-four participants died (21.8%, 95% CI [16.9%, 26.7%]), 5.3% annual rate, and 46.1% showed symptomatology of mental disorders. Older people have eight times greater risk of mortality. The risk increased 53 times in patients affected by several physical illness. No relationship between cognitive dysfunction and depressive symptomatology was observed. In fact, physical condition was associated with depression, and the percentage of participants with depressive symptoms increased according to the severity of physical illness. Severity of physical illness and age are independently and directly associated with mortality in the elderly people. Therefore, severity of physical illness seems to be a crucial factor in the bi-directional association between mortality and depression, acting as a risk factor independently for both. So the relationship between depression and mortality can be affected by the severity of physical illness.

Psychological Factors and Mortality Risk in a Rural Area of Japan

PubMed Central

Tokushima, Yasuko; Hosoda, Takenobu; Okamoto, Mikizo; Kurozawa, Youichi

2014-01-01

Background The purpose of this study is to assess the association between psychological factors and mortality risk from all causes. Methods We used follow-up data for 4,181 persons from 40 to 79 years over a period of 17.6 years from one part of the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study (JACC Study). The status of the individuals comprising the data of the study as of the end of December 2006 was determined from their registration cards and death records. We calculated the proportions of selected variables among 5 psychological factors by sex. Cox’s proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the associations between psychological factors and mortality risk from all causes. Data were adjusted for age, medical history, education, job status, marital status, drinking, smoking, physical activity, sleeping duration, body mass index and breakfast. Results During the follow-up period, a total of 791 deaths were recorded. Men who reported feelings of being trusted had a decreased risk for mortality risk from all causes compared with the risk of those who reported “maybe”, whereas those without feelings of being trusted had increased risk for mortality risk from all causes. Conclusion This study suggests that the absence of feelings of being trusted increases the risk of all causes of mortality among middle-aged and elderly men in a rural area. Our findings suggest that interpersonal relationships comprise an important factor in longevity. PMID:25324588

Infant mortality in Pelotas, Brazil: a comparison of risk factors in two birth cohorts.

PubMed

Menezes, Ana Maria Baptista; Hallal, Pedro Curi; Santos, Iná Silva dos; Victora, Cesar Gomes; Barros, Fernando Celso

2005-12-01

To compare two population-based birth cohorts to assess trends in infant mortality rates and the distribution of relevant risk factors, and how these changed after an 11-year period. Data from two population-based prospective birth cohorts (1982 and 1993) were analyzed. Both studies included all children born in a hospital (> 99% of all births) in the city of Pelotas, Southern Brazil. Infant mortality was monitored through surveillance of all maternity hospitals, mortality registries and cemeteries. There were 5,914 live-born children in 1982 and 5,249 in 1993. The infant mortality rate decreased by 41%, from 36.0 per 1,000 live births in 1982 to 21.1 per 1,000 in 1993. Socioeconomic and maternal factors tended to become more favorable during the study period, but there were unfavorable changes in birthweight and gestational age. Poverty, high parity, low birthweight, preterm delivery, and intrauterine growth restriction were the main risk factors for infant mortality in both cohorts. The 41% reduction in infant mortality between 1982 and 1993 would have been even greater had the prevalence of risk factors remained constant during the period studied here. There were impressive declines in infant mortality which were not due to changes in the risk factors we studied. Because no reduction was seen in the large social inequalities documented in the 1982 cohort, it is likely that the reduction in infant mortality resulted largely from improvements in health care.

Culture, risk factors and mortality: can Switzerland add missing pieces to the European puzzle?

PubMed

Faeh, D; Minder, C; Gutzwiller, F; Bopp, M

2009-08-01

The aim was to compare cause-specific mortality, self-rated health (SRH) and risk factors in the French and German part of Switzerland and to discuss to what extent variations between these regions reflect differences between France and Germany. Data were used from the general population of German and French Switzerland with 2.8 million individuals aged 45-74 years, contributing 176 782 deaths between 1990 and 2000. Adjusted mortality risks were calculated from the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal census-based record linkage study. Results were contrasted with cross-sectional analyses of SRH and risk factors (Swiss Health Survey 1992/3) and with cross-sectional national and international mortality rates for 1980, 1990 and 2000. Despite similar all-cause mortality, there were substantial differences in cause-specific mortality between Swiss regions. Deaths from circulatory disease were more common in German Switzerland, while causes related to alcohol consumption were more prevalent in French Switzerland. Many but not all of the mortality differences between the two regions could be explained by variations in risk factors. Similar patterns were found between Germany and France. Characteristic mortality and behavioural differentials between the German- and the French-speaking parts of Switzerland could also be found between Germany and France. However, some of the international variations in mortality were not in line with the Swiss regional comparison nor with differences in risk factors. These could relate to peculiarities in assignment of cause of death. With its cultural diversity, Switzerland offers the opportunity to examine cultural determinants of mortality without bias due to different statistical systems or national health policies.

Factors Associated With Mortality in Low-Risk Pediatric Critical Care Patients in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Verlaat, Carin W; Visser, Idse H; Wubben, Nina; Hazelzet, Jan A; Lemson, Joris; van Waardenburg, Dick; van der Heide, Douwe; van Dam, Nicolette A; Jansen, Nicolaas J; van Heerde, Mark; van der Starre, Cynthia; van Asperen, Roelie; Kneyber, Martin; van Woensel, Job B; van den Boogaard, Mark; van der Hoeven, Johannes

2017-04-01

To determine differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and factors associated with mortality in pediatric intensive care patients with low risk of mortality. Retrospective cohort study. Patients were selected from a national database including all admissions to the PICUs in The Netherlands between 2006 and 2012. Patients less than 18 years old admitted to the PICU with a predicted mortality risk lower than 1% according to either the recalibrated Pediatric Risk of Mortality or the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 were included. None. In total, 16,874 low-risk admissions were included of which 86 patients (0.5%) died. Nonsurvivors had more unplanned admissions (74.4% vs 38.5%; p < 0.001), had more complex chronic conditions (76.7% vs 58.8%; p = 0.001), were more often mechanically ventilated (88.1% vs 34.9%; p < 0.001), and had a longer length of stay (median, 11 [interquartile range, 5-32] d vs median, 3 [interquartile range, 2-5] d; p < 0.001) when compared with survivors. Factors significantly associated with mortality were complex chronic conditions (odds ratio, 3.29; 95% CI, 1.97-5.50), unplanned admissions (odds ratio, 5.78; 95% CI, 3.40-9.81), and admissions in spring/summer (odds ratio, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.08-2.58). Nonsurvivors in the PICU with a low predicted mortality risk have recognizable risk factors including complex chronic condition and unplanned admissions.

Educational differences in cardiovascular mortality: The role of shared family factors and cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Kjøllesdal, M K R; Ariansen, I; Mortensen, L H; Davey Smith, G; Næss, Ø

2016-12-01

To explore the confounding effects of early family factors shared by siblings and cardiovascular risk factors in midlife on the educational differences in mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Data from national and regional health surveys in Norway (1974-2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study, the National Educational Registry and the Cause of Death Registry. The study population consisted of participants with at least one full sibling among the health survey participants ( n=271,310). Data were available on CVD risk factors, including weight, height, blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking. The hazards ratio (HR) of CVD mortality was 3.44 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.98-3.96) in the lowest educational group relative to the highest. The HRs were little altered in the within-sibship analyses. Adjusted for risk factors, the HR for CVD mortality in the cohort analyses was 2.05 (CI 1.77-2.37) in the lowest educational group relative to the highest. The respective HR in the within-sibship analyses was 2.46 (CI 1.48-2.24). Using a sibling design, we did not find that the association between education and CVD mortality was confounded by early life factors shared by siblings, but it was explained to a large extent by CVD risk factors. These results suggest that reducing levels of CVD risk factors could have the greatest effect on mortality in less well-educated people.

Risk factors for early infant mortality in Sarlahi district, Nepal.

PubMed Central

Katz, Joanne; West, Keith P.; Khatry, Subarna K.; Christian, Parul; LeClerq, Steven C.; Pradhan, Elizabeth Kimbrough; Shrestha, Sharada Ram

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Early infant mortality has not declined as rapidly as child mortality in many countries. Identification of risk factors for early infant mortality may help inform the design of intervention strategies. METHODS: Over the period 1994-97, 15,469 live-born, singleton infants in rural Nepal were followed to 24 weeks of age to identify risk factors for mortality within 0-7 days, 8-28 days, and 4-24 weeks after the birth. FINDINGS: In multivariate models, maternal and paternal education reduced mortality between 4 and 24 weeks only: odds ratios (OR) 0.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12-0.66) and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.44-0.88), respectively. Miscarriage in the previous pregnancy predicted mortality in the first week of life (OR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.37-2.87), whereas prior child deaths increased the risk of post-neonatal death (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.24-2.75). A larger maternal mid-upper arm circumference reduced the risk of infant death during the first week of life (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.81-0.95). Infants of women who did not receive any tetanus vaccinations during pregnancy or who had severe illness during the third trimester were more likely to die in the neonatal period. Maternal mortality was strongly associated with infant mortality (OR = 6.43, 95% CI = 2.35-17.56 at 0-7 days; OR = 11.73, 95% CI = 3.82-36.00 at 8-28 days; and OR = 51.68, 95% CI = 20.26-131.80 at 4-24 weeks). CONCLUSION: Risk factors for early infant mortality varied with the age of the infant. Factors amenable to intervention included efforts aimed at maternal morbidity and mortality and increased arm circumference during pregnancy. PMID:14758431

Socio-Ecological Risk Factors for Prime-Age Adult Death in Two Coastal Areas of Vietnam

PubMed Central

Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Wierzba, Thomas F.

2014-01-01

Background Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. Methods and Findings The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. Conclusion Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam. PMID:24587031

Socio-ecological risk factors for prime-age adult death in two coastal areas of Vietnam.

PubMed

Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-01-01

Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam.

Accounting for Selection Bias in Studies of Acute Cardiac Events.

PubMed

Banack, Hailey R; Harper, Sam; Kaufman, Jay S

2018-06-01

In cardiovascular research, pre-hospital mortality represents an important potential source of selection bias. Inverse probability of censoring weights are a method to account for this source of bias. The objective of this article is to examine and correct for the influence of selection bias due to pre-hospital mortality on the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and all-cause mortality after an acute cardiac event. The relationship between the number of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors (0-5; smoking status, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity) and all-cause mortality was examined using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. To illustrate the magnitude of selection bias, estimates from an unweighted generalized linear model with a log link and binomial distribution were compared with estimates from an inverse probability of censoring weighted model. In unweighted multivariable analyses the estimated risk ratio for mortality ranged from 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98-1.21) for 1 CVD risk factor to 1.95 (95% CI, 1.41-2.68) for 5 CVD risk factors. In the inverse probability of censoring weights weighted analyses, the risk ratios ranged from 1.14 (95% CI, 0.94-1.39) to 4.23 (95% CI, 2.69-6.66). Estimates from the inverse probability of censoring weighted model were substantially greater than unweighted, adjusted estimates across all risk factor categories. This shows the magnitude of selection bias due to pre-hospital mortality and effect on estimates of the effect of CVD risk factors on mortality. Moreover, the results highlight the utility of using this method to address a common form of bias in cardiovascular research. Copyright © 2018 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rising Educational Gradients in Mortality: The Role of Behavioral Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Cutler, David M; Meara, Ellen; Richards-Shubik, Seth; Ruhm, Christopher J

2013-01-01

The long-standing inverse relationship between education and mortality strengthened substantially at the end of the 20th century. This paper examines the reasons for this increase. We show that behavioral risk factors are not of primary importance. Smoking declined more for the better educated, but not enough to explain the trend. Obesity rose at similar rates across education groups, and control of blood pressure and cholesterol increased fairly uniformly as well. Rather, our results show that the mortality returns to risk factors, and conditional on risk factors, the return to education, have grown over time. PMID:21925754

Risk of Mortality after Spinal Cord Injury: An 8-year Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Krause, James S.; Zhai, Yusheng; Saunders, Lee L.; Carter, Rickey E.

2011-01-01

Objective To evaluate a theoretical model for mortality after spinal cord injury (SCI) by sequentially analyzing 4 sets of risk factors in relation to mortality (i.e., adding 1 set of factors to the regression equation at a time). Design Prospective cohort study of data collected in late 1997 and early 1998 with mortality status ascertained in December 2005. We evaluated the significance of 4 successive sets of predictors (biographic and injury, psychologic and environmental, behavioral, health and secondary conditions) using Cox proportional hazards modeling and built a full model based on the optimal predictors. Setting A specialty hospital. Participants 1,386 adults with traumatic SCI, at least 1 year post-injury, participated. There were 224 deaths. After eliminating cases with missing data, there were 1,209 participants, with 179 deceased at follow-up. Interventions N/A. Main Outcome Measures Mortality status was determined using the National Death Index and the Social Security Death Index. Results The final model included one environmental variable (poverty), 2 behavioral factors (prescription medication use, binge drinking), and 4 health factors or secondary conditions (hospitalizations, fractures/amputations, surgeries for pressure ulcers, probable major depression). Conclusions The results supported the major premise of the theoretical model that risk factors are more important the more proximal they are in a theoretical chain of events leading to mortality. According to this model, mortality results from declining health, precipitated by high-risk behaviors. These findings may be used to target individuals who are at high risk for early mortality as well as directing interventions to the particular risk factor. PMID:19801060

Risk Factor Analysis for AKI Including Laboratory Indicators: a Nationwide Multicenter Study of Hospitalized Patients.

PubMed

Nie, Sasa; Feng, Zhe; Tang, Li; Wang, Xiaolong; He, Yani; Fang, Jingai; Li, Suhua; Yang, Yibin; Mao, Huijuan; Jiao, Jundong; Liu, Wenhu; Cao, Ning; Wang, Wenge; Sun, Jifeng; Shao, Fengmin; Li, Wenge; He, Qiang; Jiang, Hongli; Lin, Hongli; Fu, Ping; Zhang, Xinzhou; Liu, Yinghong; Wu, Yonggui; Xi, ChunSheng; Liang, Meng; Qu, Zhijie; Zhu, Jun; Wu, Guangli; Zheng, Yali; Na, Yu; Li, Ying; Li, Wei; Cai, Guangyan; Chen, Xiangmei

2017-01-01

Risk factor studies for acute kidney injury (AKI) in China are lacking, especially those regarding non-traditional risk factors, such as laboratory indicators. All adult patients admitted to 38 tertiary and 22 secondary hospitals in China in any one month between July and December 2014 were surveyed. AKI patients were screened according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes' definition of AKI. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for AKI, and Cox regression was used to analyze the risk of in-hospital mortality for AKI patients; additionally, a propensity score analysis was used to reconfirm the risk factors among laboratory indicators for mortality. The morbidity of AKI was 0.97%. Independent risk factors for AKI were advancing age, male gender, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. All-cause mortality was 16.5%. The predictors of mortality in AKI patients were advancing age, tumor, higher uric acid level and increases in Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. The hazard ratio (HR) for mortality with uric acid levels > 9.1 mg/dl compared with ≤ 5.2 mg/dl was 1.78 (95% CI: 1.23 to 2.58) for the AKI patients as a group, and was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.24 to 2.42) for a propensity score-matched set. In addition to traditional risk factors, uric acid level is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality after AKI. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

The effect of gender, age, and symptom severity in late-life depression on the risk of all-cause mortality: The Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging

PubMed Central

Diniz, Breno S.; Reynolds, Charles F.; Butters, Meryl A.; Dew, Mary Amanda; Firmo, Josélia O. A.; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Castro-Costa, Erico

2014-01-01

Background Increased mortality risk and its moderators is an important, but still under recognized, negative outcome of Late-Life Depression (LLD). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in a population-based study with over ten years of follow-up, and addressed the moderating effect of gender and symptom severity on mortality risk. Methods This analysis used data from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging. The study population comprised 1.508 (86.5%) of all eligible 1.742 elderly residents. Depressive symptoms were annually evaluated by the GHQ-12, with scores of 5 or higher indicating clinically significant depression. From 1997 to 2007, 441 participants died during 10,648 person-years of follow-up. We estimated the hazard ratio for mortality risk by Cox regression analyses. Results Depressive symptoms were a risk factor for all-cause mortality after adjusting for confounding lifestyle and clinical factors (adjusted HR=1.24 CI95% [1.00–1.55], p=0.05). Mortality risk was significantly elevated in men (adjusted HR=1.45 CI95% [1.01 – 2.07], p=0.04), but not in women (adjusted HR=1.13 CI95% [0.84 – 1.48], p=0.15). We observed a significant interaction between gender and depressive symptoms on mortality risk ((HR= 1.72 CI95% [1.18 – 2.49], p=0.004). Conclusion The present study provides evidence that LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in the elderly, especially in men. The prevention and adequate treatment of LLD may help to reduce premature disability and death among elders with depressive symptoms. PMID:24353128

Alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Duffy, J C

1995-02-01

Prospective studies of alcohol and mortality in middle-aged men almost universally find a U-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and risk of mortality. This review demonstrates the extent to which different studies lead to different risk estimates, analyses the putative influence of abstention as a risk factor and uses available data to produce point and interval estimates of the consumption level apparently associated with minimum risk from two studies in the UK. Data from a number of studies are analysed by means of logistic-linear modelling, taking account of the possible influence of abstention as a special risk factor. Separate analysis of British data is performed. Logistic-linear modelling demonstrates large and highly significant differences between the studies considered in the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality. The results support the identification of abstention as a special risk factor for mortality, but do not indicate that this alone explains the apparent U-shaped relationship. Separate analysis of two British studies indicates minimum risk of mortality in this population at a consumption level of about 26 (8.5 g) units of alcohol per week. The analysis supports the view that abstention may be a specific risk factor for all-cause mortality, but is not an adequate explanation of the apparent protective effect of alcohol consumption against all-cause mortality. Future analyses might better be performed on a case-by-case basis, using a change-point model to estimate the parameters of the relationship. The current misinterpretation of the sensible drinking level of 21 units per week for men in the UK as a limit is not justified, and the data suggest that alcohol consumption is a net preventive factor against premature death in this population.

Sex differences in neonatal mortality in Sarlahi, Nepal: the role of biology and environment.

PubMed

Rosenstock, Summer; Katz, Joanne; Mullany, Luke C; Khatry, Subarna K; LeClerq, Steven C; Darmstadt, Gary L; Tielsch, James M

2013-12-01

Studies in South Asia have documented increased risk of neonatal mortality among girls, despite evidence of a biological survival advantage. Associations between gender preference and mortality are cited as reasons for excess mortality among girls. This has not, however, been tested in statistical models. A secondary analysis of data from a population-based randomised controlled trial of newborn infection prevention conducted in rural southern Nepal was used to estimate sex differences in early and late neonatal mortality, with girls as the reference group. The analysis investigated which underlying biological factors (immutable factors specific to the newborn or his/her mother) and environmental factors (mutable external factors) might explain observed sex differences in mortality. Neonatal mortality was comparable by sex (Ref=girls; OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.22). When stratified by neonatal period, boys were at 20% (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02% to 1.42%) greater risk of early and girls at 43% (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51% to 0.94%) greater risk of late neonatal mortality. Biological factors, primarily respiratory depression and unconsciousness at birth, explained excess early neonatal mortality among boys. Increased late neonatal mortality among girls was explained by a three-way environmental interaction between ethnicity, sex and prior sibling composition (categorised as primiparous newborns, infants born to families with prior living boys or boys and girls, and infants born to families with only prior living girls). Risk of neonatal mortality inverted between the early and late neonatal periods. Excess risk of early neonatal death among boys was consistent with biological expectations. Excess risk for late neonatal death among girls was not explained by overarching gender preference or preferential care-seeking for boys as hypothesised, but was driven by increased risk among Madeshi girls born to families with only prior girls.

Risk factors for Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections consequences of inappropriate initial antimicrobial therapy: a systematic literature review meta-analysis.

PubMed

Merchant, Sanjay; Proudfoot, Emma M; Quadri, Hafsa N; McElroy, Heather J; Wright, William R; Gupta, Ankur; Sarpong, Eric M

2018-02-15

Treating infections of Gram-negative pathogens, in particular Pseudomonas aeruginosa, is a challenge for clinicians in the Asia-Pacific region due to inherent and acquired resistance to antimicrobials. This systematic review and meta-analysis provides updated information of the risk factors for P. aeruginosa infections in Asia-Pacific, and consequences (e.g., mortality, costs) of initial inappropriate antimicrobial therapy (IIAT). EMBASE and MEDLINE databases were searched for Asia-Pacific studies reporting the consequences of IIAT versus initial appropriate antimicrobial therapy (IAAT) in Gram-negative infections, and risk factors for serious P. aeruginosa infections. A meta-analysis of unadjusted mortality was performed using random-effects model. Twenty-two studies reporting mortality and 13 reporting risk factors were identified. The meta-analysis demonstrated that mortality was significantly lower in patients receiving IAAT versus IIAT, with 67% reduction observed for 28- or 30-day all-cause mortality (OR 0.33; 95% CI 0.20, 0.55; P <0.001). Risk factors for serious P. aeruginosa infection include previous exposure to antimicrobials, mechanical ventilation, and previous hospitalization. The high rates of antimicrobial resistance in Asia-Pacific, as well as increased mortality associated with IIAT and the presence of risk factors for serious infection, highlight the importance of access to newer and appropriate antimicrobials. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mortality of rheumatoid arthritis in Japan: a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Hakoda, M; Oiwa, H; Kasagi, F; Masunari, N; Yamada, M; Suzuki, G; Fujiwara, S

2005-10-01

To determine the mortality risk of Japanese patients with rheumatoid arthritis, taking into account lifestyle and physical factors, including comorbidity. 91 individuals with rheumatoid arthritis were identified during screening a cohort of 16 119 Japanese atomic bomb survivors in the period 1958 to 1966. These individuals and the remainder of the cohort were followed for mortality until 1999. Mortality risk of the rheumatoid patients was estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model. In addition to age and sex, lifestyle and physical factors such as smoking status, alcohol consumption, blood pressure, and comorbidity were included as adjustment factors for the analysis of total mortality and for analysis of mortality from each cause of death. 83 of the rheumatoid patients (91.2%) and 8527 of the non-rheumatoid controls (52.9%) died during mean follow up periods of 17.8 and 28.0 years, respectively. The age and sex adjusted hazard ratio for mortality in the rheumatoid patients was 1.60 (95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 1.99), p < 0.001. Multiple adjustments, including for lifestyle and physical factors, resulted in a similar mortality hazard ratio of 1.57 (1.25 to 1.94), p < 0.001. Although mortality risk tended to be higher in male than in female rheumatoid patients, the difference was not significant. Pneumonia, tuberculosis, and liver disease were significantly increased as causes of death in rheumatoid patients. Rheumatoid arthritis is an independent risk factor for mortality. Infectious events are associated with increased mortality in rheumatoid arthritis.

Survival and Associated Risk Factors for Mortality Among Infants with Critical Congenital Heart Disease in a Developing Country.

PubMed

Mat Bah, Mohd Nizam; Sapian, Mohd Hanafi; Jamil, Mohammad Tamim; Alias, Amelia; Zahari, Norazah

2018-05-14

Critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. However, data on survival of CCHD and the risk factors associated with its mortality are limited. This study examined CCHD survival and the risk factors for CCHD mortality. Using a retrospective cohort study of infants born with CCHD from 2006 to 2015, survival over 10 years was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the risk factors for mortality were analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. A total of 491 CCHD cases were included in the study, with an overall mortality rate of 34.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 30.6-39.2). The intervention/surgical mortality rate was 9.8% ≤ 30 days and 11.5% > 30 days after surgery, and 17% died before surgery or intervention. The median age at death was 2.7 months [first quartile: 1 month, third quartile: 7.3 months]. The CCHD survival rate was 90.4% (95% CI 89-91.8%) at 1 month, 69.3% (95% CI 67.2-71.4%) at 1 year, 63.4% (95% CI 61.1-65.7%) at 5 years, and 61.4% (95% CI 58.9-63.9%) at 10 years. Weight of < 2 kg at diagnosis, associated syndromes, poor pre-operative condition, and non-duct-dependent CCHD were independent risk factors for poor survival, with hazard ratios of 2.61, 2.10, 2.22, and 1.70, respectively. CCHD is associated with a high mortality rate. Low weight, poor pre-operative condition, associated syndromes, and non-duct-dependent CCHD are significant risk factors affecting the survival of infants with CCHD.

Relative Risks of Contributing Factors to Morbidity and Mortality in Adults With Craniopharyngioma on Growth Hormone Replacement.

PubMed

Yuen, Kevin C J; Mattsson, Anders F; Burman, Pia; Erfurth, Eva-Marie; Camacho-Hubner, Cecilia; Fox, Janet L; Verhelst, Johan; Geffner, Mitchell E; Abs, Roger

2018-02-01

In adults, craniopharyngioma (CP) of either childhood-onset (CO-CP) or adult-onset (AO-CP) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but data on the relative risks (RRs) of contributing factors are lacking. To assess the RRs of factors contributing to morbidity and mortality in adults with CO-CP and AO-CP. Data on 1669 patients with CP from KIMS (Pfizer International Metabolic Database) were analyzed using univariate and multiple Poisson and Cox regression methods. When CO-CP and AO-CP groups were combined, history of stroke and hyperlipidemia increased cardiovascular risk, higher body mass index (BMI) and radiotherapy increased cerebrovascular risk, and increased waist circumference increased the risk of developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Compared with patients with CO-CP, patients with AO-CP had a threefold higher risk of tumor recurrence, whereas being female and previous radiotherapy exposure conferred lower risks. Radiotherapy and older age with every 10 years from disease onset conferred a 2.3- to 3.5-fold risk for developing new intracranial tumors, whereas older age, greater and/or increasing BMI, history of stroke, and lower insulinlike growth factor I (IGF-I) standard deviation score measured at last sampling before death were related to increased all-cause mortality. Compared with the general population, adults with CP had 9.3-, 8.1-, and 2.2-fold risks of developing DM, new intracranial tumors, and early death, respectively. Conventional factors that increase the risks of cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases and DM and risks for developing new intracranial tumors contributed to excess morbidity and mortality. In addition, lower serum IGF-I level measured from the last sample before death was inversely associated with mortality risk in patients with CP. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

Excess morbidity and mortality in patients with craniopharyngioma: a hospital-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wijnen, Mark; Olsson, Daniel S; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Hammarstrand, Casper; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; van der Lely, Aart J; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

2018-01-01

Most studies in patients with craniopharyngioma did not investigate morbidity and mortality relative to the general population nor evaluated risk factors for excess morbidity and mortality. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine excess morbidity and mortality, as well as their determinants in patients with craniopharyngioma. Hospital-based retrospective cohort study conducted between 1987 and 2014. We included 144 Dutch and 80 Swedish patients with craniopharyngioma identified by a computer-based search in the medical records (105 females (47%), 112 patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma (50%), 3153 person-years of follow-up). Excess morbidity and mortality were analysed using standardized incidence and mortality ratios (SIRs and SMRs). Risk factors were evaluated univariably by comparing SIRs and SMRs between non-overlapping subgroups. Patients with craniopharyngioma experienced excess morbidity due to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (SIR: 4.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.8-6.8) and cerebral infarction (SIR: 4.9, 95% CI: 3.1-8.0) compared to the general population. Risks for malignant neoplasms, myocardial infarctions and fractures were not increased. Patients with craniopharyngioma also had excessive total mortality (SMR: 2.7, 95% CI: 2.0-3.8), and mortality due to circulatory (SMR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1-4.5) and respiratory (SMR: 6.0, 95% CI: 2.5-14.5) diseases. Female sex, childhood-onset craniopharyngioma, hydrocephalus and tumour recurrence were identified as risk factors for excess T2DM, cerebral infarction and total mortality. Patients with craniopharyngioma are at an increased risk for T2DM, cerebral infarction, total mortality and mortality due to circulatory and respiratory diseases. Female sex, childhood-onset craniopharyngioma, hydrocephalus and tumour recurrence are important risk factors. © 2018 European Society of Endocrinology.

Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Liver Transplantation in the Era of MELD-Based Liver Allocation: A Multivariate Analysis

PubMed Central

Schultze, Daniel; Hillebrand, Norbert; Hinz, Ulf; Büchler, Markus W.; Schemmer, Peter

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. While waiting list mortality can be predicted by the MELD-score, reliable scoring systems for the postoperative period do not exist. This study's objective was to identify risk factors that contribute to postoperative mortality. Methods Between December 2006 and March 2011, 429 patients underwent liver transplantation in our department. Risk factors for postoperative mortality in 266 consecutive liver transplantations were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. Patients who were <18 years, HU-listings, and split-, living related, combined or re-transplantations were excluded from the analysis. The correlation between number of risk factors and mortality was analyzed. Results A labMELD ≥20, female sex, coronary heart disease, donor risk index >1.5 and donor Na+>145 mmol/L were identified to be independent predictive factors for postoperative mortality. With increasing number of these risk-factors, postoperative 90-day and 1-year mortality increased (0–1: 0 and 0%; 2: 2.9 and 17.4%; 3: 5.6 and 16.8%; 4: 22.2 and 33.3%; 5–6: 60.9 and 66.2%). Conclusions In this analysis, a simple score was derived that adequately identified patients at risk after liver transplantation. Opening a discussion on the inclusion of these parameters in the process of organ allocation may be a worthwhile venture. PMID:24905210

Work-based predictors of mortality: a 20-year follow-up of healthy employees.

PubMed

Shirom, Arie; Toker, Sharon; Alkaly, Yasmin; Jacobson, Orit; Balicer, Ran

2011-05-01

This study investigated the effects of the Job-Demand-Control-Support (JDC-S) model's components, workload, control, peer and supervisor social support, on the risk of all-cause mortality. Also examined was the expectation that the above work-based components interact in predicting all-cause mortality. The study's hypotheses were tested after controlling for physiological variables and health behaviors known to be risk factors for mortality. The design used was prospective. Baseline data were obtained from healthy employees (N = 820) who underwent periodic health examinations in 1988. Follow-up data on all-cause mortality were obtained from the participants' computerized medical file, kept by their HMO, in 2008. The baseline data covered socioeconomic, behavioral, and biological risk factors in addition to the components of the JDC-S model. During the period of follow-up, 53 deaths were recorded. Data were analyzed using Cox regressions. Only one main effect was found: the risk of mortality was significantly lower for those reporting high levels of peer social support. The study found two significant interactions. Higher levels of control reduced the risk of mortality for the men and increased it for the women. The main effect of peer social support on mortality risk was significantly higher for those whose baseline age ranged from 38 to 43 but not for the older than 43 or the younger than 38 participants. Peer social support is a protective factor, reducing the risk of mortality, while perceived control reduces the risk of mortality among men but increases it among women. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Life course socioeconomic conditions, adulthood risk factors and cardiovascular mortality among men and women: a 17-year follow up of the GLOBE study.

PubMed

Kamphuis, Carlijn B M; Turrell, Gavin; Giskes, Katrina; Mackenbach, Johan P; van Lenthe, Frank J

2013-10-03

Our goal was to study associations between childhood socioeconomic position (SEP), adulthood SEP, adulthood risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, by investigating the critical period and pathway models. The prospective GLOBE study in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, was linked with cause of death register data from Statistics Netherlands in 2007. At baseline, respondents reported information on childhood SEP (i.e. occupational level of respondent's father), adulthood SEP (educational level), and adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, and psychosocial factors). Analyses included 4894 men and 5572 women. Data were analysed by Cox proportional hazard ratios (HR) with CVD mortality as the outcome. Childhood SEP was associated with CVD mortality among men with the lowest childhood SEP only (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.74), and not among women. The majority of childhood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality among men (88%) were explained by material, behavioural and psychosocial risk factors in adulthood, and adulthood SEP. This was mostly due to the association of childhood SEP with adulthood SEP, and the interrelations of adulthood SEP with risk factors, and partly via the direct association of childhood SEP with adulthood risk factors, independent of adulthood SEP. This study supports the pathway model for men, but found no evidence that socioeconomic conditions in childhood are critical for CVD mortality in later life independent of adulthood conditions. Developing effective methods to reduce material and behavioural risk factors among lower socioeconomic groups should be a top priority in cardiovascular disease prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

What is the association of hypothyroidism with risks of cardiovascular events and mortality? A meta-analysis of 55 cohort studies involving 1,898,314 participants.

PubMed

Ning, Yu; Cheng, Yun J; Liu, Li J; Sara, Jaskanwal D S; Cao, Zhi Y; Zheng, Wei P; Zhang, Tian S; Han, Hui J; Yang, Zhen Y; Zhang, Yi; Wang, Fei L; Pan, Rui Y; Huang, Jie L; Wu, Ling L; Zhang, Ming; Wei, Yong X

2017-02-02

Whether hypothyroidism is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular events is still disputed. We aimed to assess the association between hypothyroidism and risks of cardiovascular events and mortality. We searched PubMed and Embase from inception to 29 February 2016. Cohort studies were included with no restriction of hypothyroid states. Priori main outcomes were ischemic heart disease (IHD), cardiac mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Fifty-five cohort studies involving 1,898,314 participants were identified. Patients with hypothyroidism, compared with euthyroidism, experienced higher risks of IHD (relative risk (RR): 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.26), myocardial infarction (MI) (RR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.05-1.25), cardiac mortality (RR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.38-2.80), and all-cause mortality (RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.13-1.39); subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH; especially with thyrotropin level ≥10 mIU/L) was also associated with higher risks of IHD and cardiac mortality. Moreover, cardiac patients with hypothyroidism, compared with those with euthyroidism, experienced higher risks of cardiac mortality (RR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.28-3.83) and all-cause mortality (RR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.26-1.81). Hypothyroidism is a risk factor for IHD and cardiac mortality. Hypothyroidism is associated with higher risks of cardiac mortality and all-cause mortality compared with euthyroidism in the general public or in patients with cardiac disease.

Control beliefs and risk for 4-year mortality in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Duan-Porter, Wei; Hastings, Susan Nicole; Neelon, Brian; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

2017-01-11

Control beliefs are important psychological factors that likely contribute to heterogeneity in health outcomes for older adults. We evaluated whether control beliefs are associated with risk for 4-year mortality, after accounting for established "classic" biomedical risk factors. We also determined if an enhanced risk model with control beliefs improved identification of individuals with low vs. high mortality risk. We used nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2012) for adults 50 years or older in 2006 (n = 7313) or 2008 (n = 6301). We assessed baseline perceived global control (measured as 2 dimensions-"constraints" and "mastery"), and health-specific control. We also obtained baseline data for 12 established biomedical risk factors of 4-year mortality: age, sex, 4 medical conditions (diabetes mellitus, cancer, lung disease and heart failure), body mass index less than 25 kg/m 2 , smoking, and 4 functional difficulties (with bathing, managing finances, walking several blocks and pushing or pulling heavy objects). Deaths within 4 years of follow-up were determined through interviews with respondents' family and the National Death Index. After accounting for classic biomedical risk factors, perceived constraints were significantly associated with higher mortality risk (third quartile scores odds ratio [OR] 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.81; fourth quartile scores OR 1.45, 95% CI, 1.09-1.92), while health-specific control was significantly associated with lower risk (OR 0.69-0.78 for scores above first quartile). Higher perceived mastery scores were not consistently associated with decreased risk. The enhanced model with control beliefs found an additional 3.5% of participants (n = 222) with low predicted risk of 4-year mortality (i.e., 4% or less); observed mortality for these individuals was 1.8% during follow-up. Compared with participants predicted to have low mortality risk only by the classic biomedical model, individuals identified by only the enhanced model were older, had higher educational status, higher income, and higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus and cancer. Control beliefs were significantly associated with risk for 4-year mortality; accounting for these factors improved identification of low-risk individuals. More work is needed to determine how assessment of control beliefs could enable targeting of clinical interventions to support at-risk older adults.

Long-term mortality rates (>8-year) improve as compared to the general and obese population following bariatric surgery.

PubMed

Telem, Dana A; Talamini, Mark; Shroyer, A Laurie; Yang, Jie; Altieri, Maria; Zhang, Qiao; Gracia, Gerald; Pryor, Aurora D

2015-03-01

Sparse data are available on long-term patient mortality following bariatric surgery as compared to the general population. The purpose of this study was to assess long-term mortality rates and identify risk factors for all-cause mortality following bariatric surgery. New York State (NYS) Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) longitudinal administrative data were used to identify 7,862 adult patients who underwent a primary laparoscopic bariatric surgery from 1999 to 2005. The Social Security Death Index database identified >30-day mortalities. Risk factors for mortality were screened using a univariate Cox proportional hazard (PH) model and analyzed using a multiple PH model. Based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity, actuarial projections for NYS mortality rates obtained from Centers of Disease Control were compared to the actual post-bariatric surgery mortality rates observed. The mean bariatric mortality rate was 2.5 % with 8-14 years of follow-up. Mean time to death ranged from 4 to 6 year and did not differ by operation (p = 0.073). From 1999 to 2010, the actuarial mortality rate predicted for the general NYS population was 2.1 % versus the observed 1.5 % for the bariatric surgery population (p = 0.005). Extrapolating to 2013, demonstrated the actuarial mortality predictions at 3.1 % versus the bariatric surgery patients' observed morality rate of 2.5 % (p = 0.01). Risk factors associated with an earlier time to death included: age, male gender, Medicare/Medicaid insurance, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, pulmonary circulation disorders, and diabetes. No procedure-specific or perioperative complication impact for time-to-death was found. Long-term mortality rate of patients undergoing bariatric surgery significantly improves as compared to the general population regardless of bariatric operation performed. Additionally, perioperative complications do not increase long-term mortality risk. This study did identify specific patient risk factors for long-term mortality. Special attention and consideration should be given to these "at risk" patient sub-populations.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mortality and Repeated Measurement of Explanatory Risk Factors in a 25 Years Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Skalická, Věra; Ringdal, Kristen; Witvliet, Margot I.

2015-01-01

Background Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality can be explained by different groups of risk factors. However, little is known whether repeated measurement of risk factors can provide better explanation of socioeconomic inequalities in health. Our study examines the extent to which relative educational and income inequalities in mortality might be explained by explanatory risk factors (behavioral, psychosocial, biomedical risk factors and employment) measured at two points in time, as compared to one measurement at baseline. Methods and Findings From the Norwegian total county population-based HUNT Study (years 1984–86 and 1995–1997, respectively) 61 513 men and women aged 25–80 (82.5% of all enrolled) were followed-up for mortality in 25 years until 2009, employing a discrete time survival analysis. Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality were observed. As compared to their highest socioeconomic counterparts, the lowest educated men had an OR (odds ratio) of 1.41 (95% CI 1.29–1.55) and for the lowest income quartile OR = 1.59 (1.48–1.571), for women OR = 1.35 (1.17–1.55), and OR = 1.40 (1.28–1.52), respectively. Baseline explanatory variables attenuated the association between education and income with mortality by 54% and 54% in men, respectively, and by 69% and 18% in women. After entering time-varying variables, this attainment increased to 63% and 59% in men, respectively, and to 25% (income) in women, with no improvement in regard to education in women. Change in biomedical factors and employment did not amend the explanation. Conclusions Addition of a second measurement for risk factors provided only a modest improvement in explaining educational and income inequalities in mortality in Norwegian men and women. Accounting for change in behavior provided the largest improvement in explained inequalities in mortality for both men and women, as compared to measurement at baseline. Psychosocial factors explained the largest share of income inequalities in mortality for men, but repeated measurement of these factors contributed only to modest improvement in explanation. Further comparative research on the relative importance of explanatory pathways assessed over time is needed. PMID:25853571

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality and repeated measurement of explanatory risk factors in a 25 years follow-up.

PubMed

Skalická, Věra; Ringdal, Kristen; Witvliet, Margot I

2015-01-01

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality can be explained by different groups of risk factors. However, little is known whether repeated measurement of risk factors can provide better explanation of socioeconomic inequalities in health. Our study examines the extent to which relative educational and income inequalities in mortality might be explained by explanatory risk factors (behavioral, psychosocial, biomedical risk factors and employment) measured at two points in time, as compared to one measurement at baseline. From the Norwegian total county population-based HUNT Study (years 1984-86 and 1995-1997, respectively) 61 513 men and women aged 25-80 (82.5% of all enrolled) were followed-up for mortality in 25 years until 2009, employing a discrete time survival analysis. Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality were observed. As compared to their highest socioeconomic counterparts, the lowest educated men had an OR (odds ratio) of 1.41 (95% CI 1.29-1.55) and for the lowest income quartile OR = 1.59 (1.48-1.571), for women OR = 1.35 (1.17-1.55), and OR = 1.40 (1.28-1.52), respectively. Baseline explanatory variables attenuated the association between education and income with mortality by 54% and 54% in men, respectively, and by 69% and 18% in women. After entering time-varying variables, this attainment increased to 63% and 59% in men, respectively, and to 25% (income) in women, with no improvement in regard to education in women. Change in biomedical factors and employment did not amend the explanation. Addition of a second measurement for risk factors provided only a modest improvement in explaining educational and income inequalities in mortality in Norwegian men and women. Accounting for change in behavior provided the largest improvement in explained inequalities in mortality for both men and women, as compared to measurement at baseline. Psychosocial factors explained the largest share of income inequalities in mortality for men, but repeated measurement of these factors contributed only to modest improvement in explanation. Further comparative research on the relative importance of explanatory pathways assessed over time is needed.

Systematic review of randomised controlled trials of multiple risk factor interventions for preventing coronary heart disease.

PubMed Central

Ebrahim, S.; Smith, G. D.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of multiple risk factor intervention in reducing cardiovascular risk factors, total mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease among adults. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials in workforces and in primary care in which subjects were randomly allocated to more than one of six interventions (stopping smoking, exercise, dietary advice, weight control, antihypertensive drugs, and cholesterol lowering drugs) and followed up for at least six months. SUBJECTS: Adults aged 17-73 years, 903000 person years of observation were included in nine trials with clinical event outcomes and 303000 person years in five trials with risk factor outcomes alone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking rates, blood cholesterol concentrations, total mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Net decreases in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking prevalence, and blood cholesterol were 4.2 mm Hg (SE 0.19 mm Hg), 2.7 mm Hg (0.09 mm Hg), 4.2% (0.3%), and 0.14 mmol/l (0.01 mmol/l) respectively. In the nine trials with clinical event end points the pooled odds ratios for total and coronary heart disease mortality were 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.02) and 0.96 (0.88 to 1.04) respectively. Statistical heterogeneity between the studies with respect to changes in mortality and risk factors was due to trials focusing on hypertensive participants and those using considerable amounts of drug treatment, with only these trials showing significant reductions in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The pooled effects of multiple risk factor intervention on mortality were insignificant and a small, but potentially important, benefit of treatment (about a 10% reduction in mortality) may have been missed. Changes in risk factors were modest, were related to the amount of pharmacological treatment used, and in some cases may have been overestimated because of regression to the mean, lack of intention to treat analyses, habituation to blood pressure measurement, and use of self reports of smoking. Interventions using personal or family counselling and education with or without pharmacological treatments seem to be more effective at reducing risk factors and therefore mortality in high risk hypertensive populations. The evidence suggests that such interventions implemented through standard health education methods have limited use in the general population. Health protection through fiscal and legislative measure may be more effective. PMID:9193292

Mortality indicators and risk factors for intra-abdominal hypertension in severe acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Zhao, J G; Liao, Q; Zhao, Y P; Hu, Y

2014-01-01

This study assessed the risk factors associated with mortality and the development of intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). To identify significant risk factors, we assessed the following variables in 102 patients with SAP: age, gender, etiology, serum amylase level, white blood cell (WBC) count, serum calcium level, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, computed tomography severity index (CTSI) score, pancreatic necrosis, surgical interventions, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Statistically significant differences were identified using the Student t test and the χ (2) test. Independent risk factors for survival were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression. The following variables were significantly related to both mortality and IAH: WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, pancreatic necrosis >50%, and MODS. However, it was found that surgical intervention had no significant association with mortality. MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% were found to be independent risk factors for survival in patients with SAP. Mortality and IAH from SAP were significantly related to WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, and MODS. However, Surgical intervention did not result in higher mortality. Moreover, MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% predicted a worse prognosis in SAP patients.

Risk factors and prediction of very short term versus short/intermediate term post-stroke mortality: a data mining approach.

PubMed

Easton, Jonathan F; Stephens, Christopher R; Angelova, Maia

2014-11-01

Data mining and knowledge discovery as an approach to examining medical data can limit some of the inherent bias in the hypothesis assumptions that can be found in traditional clinical data analysis. In this paper we illustrate the benefits of a data mining inspired approach to statistically analysing a bespoke data set, the academic multicentre randomised control trial, U.K Glucose Insulin in Stroke Trial (GIST-UK), with a view to discovering new insights distinct from the original hypotheses of the trial. We consider post-stroke mortality prediction as a function of days since stroke onset, showing that the time scales that best characterise changes in mortality risk are most naturally defined by examination of the mortality curve. We show that certain risk factors differentiate between very short term and intermediate term mortality. In particular, we show that age is highly relevant for intermediate term risk but not for very short or short term mortality. We suggest that this is due to the concept of frailty. Other risk factors are highlighted across a range of variable types including socio-demographics, past medical histories and admission medication. Using the most statistically significant risk factors we build predictive classification models for very short term and short/intermediate term mortality. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Post-NICU Discharge Mortality Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

De Jesus, Lilia C.; Pappas, Athina; Shankaran, Seetha; Kendrick, Douglas; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Bell, Edward F.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Walsh, Michele C.

2012-01-01

Objective To evaluate maternal and neonatal risk factors associated with post-neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) discharge mortality among ELBW infants. Study design This is a retrospective analysis of extremely low birth weight (<1,000 g) and <27 weeks' gestational age infants born in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Neonatal Research Network sites from January 2000 to June 2007. Infants were tracked until death or 18–22 months corrected age. Infants who died between NICU discharge and the 18–22 month follow-up visit were classified as post-NICU discharge mortality. Association of maternal and infant risk factors with post-NICU discharge mortality was determined using logistic regression analysis. A prediction model with six significant predictors was developed and validated. Results 5,364 infants survived to NICU discharge. 557 (10%) infants were lost to follow-up, and 107 infants died following NICU discharge. Post-NICU discharge mortality rate was 22.3 per 1000 ELBW infants. In the prediction model, African-American race, unknown maternal health insurance, and hospital stay ≥120 days significantly increased risk, and maternal exposure to intra-partum antibiotics was associated with decreased risk of post-NICU discharge mortality. Conclusion We identified African-American race, unknown medical insurance and prolonged NICU stay as risk factors associated with post-NICU discharge mortality among ELBW infants. PMID:22325187

Risk factors for all-cause, overdose and early deaths after release from prison in Washington state.

PubMed

Binswanger, Ingrid A; Blatchford, Patrick J; Lindsay, Rebecca G; Stern, Marc F

2011-08-01

High mortality rates after release from prison have been well-documented, particularly from overdose. However, little is known about the risk factors for death after release from prison. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the demographic and incarceration-related risk factors for all-cause, overdose and early mortality after release from prison. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of inmates released from a state prison system from 1999 through 2003. The cohort included 30,237 who had a total of 38,809 releases from prison. Potential risk factors included gender, race/ethnicity, age, length of incarceration, and community supervision. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine risk factors for all-cause, overdose and early (within 30 days of release) death after release from prison. Age over 50 was associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 2.67 for each decade increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.23, 3.20) but not for overdose deaths or early deaths. Latinos were at decreased risk of death compared to Whites only for all-cause mortality (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42, 0.87). Increasing years of incarceration were associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91, 0.99) and overdose deaths (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.68, 0.95), but not early deaths. Gender and type of release were not significantly associated with all-cause, overdose or early deaths. Age, ethnicity and length of incarceration were associated with mortality after release from prison. Interventions to reduce mortality among former inmates are needed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors of mortality in patients with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii bacteremia.

PubMed

Liu, Chang-Pan; Shih, Shou-Chuan; Wang, Nai-Yu; Wu, Alice Y; Sun, Fang-Ju; Chow, Shan-Fan; Chen, Te-Li; Yan, Tsong-Rong

2016-12-01

Identification of risks of mortality for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB), with early implementation of an appropriate therapy, is crucial for the patients' outcome. The aim of this study was to survey mortality risk factors in 182 patients with CRAB bacteremia in a medical center in Taiwan. A total of 182 isolates of CRAB bacteremia were collected from 2009 to 2012 in Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan These isolates were identified by using the genotypic method. Risk of attributable mortality analysis was carried out with a Cox proportional hazards model. The 182 CRAB isolates belonged to 38 different pulsotypes. The attributable mortality rate of the 182 patients was 58.24%. The risk factors for attributable mortality included intensive care unit stay [hazard ratio (HR): 2.27; p = 0.011], an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of >20 (HR: 2.19; p < 0.001), respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia (HR: 3.40; p < 0.001), and previous use of ceftriaxone (HR: 2.51; p = 0.011). The appropriateness of antimicrobial therapy was 18.87% (20/106) in the mortality group versus 88.16% (67/76) in the survivor group (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of CRAB to colistin was 100% and to tigecycline was 40.11%. The risk factors for mortality for CRAB included intensive care unit stay, a high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia, and previous use of ceftriaxone. Early implementation of an antimicrobial agent that had the highest in vitro activity against CRAB in patients at risk of CRAB bacteremia and high mortality may improve their outcome. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Multiple risk factor interventions for primary prevention of coronary heart disease

PubMed Central

Ebrahim, Shah; Beswick, Andrew; Burke, Margaret; Smith, George Davey

2014-01-01

Background Primary prevention programmes in many countries attempt to reduce mortality and morbidity due to coronary heart disease (CHD) through risk factor modification. It is widely believed that multiple risk factor intervention using counselling and educational methods is efficacious and cost-effective and should be expanded. Recent trials examining risk factor changes have cast considerable doubt on the effectiveness of these multiple risk factor interventions. Objectives To assess the effects of multiple risk factor intervention for reducing cardiovascular risk factors, total mortality, and mortality from CHD among adults without clinical evidence of established cardiovascular disease. Search strategy MEDLINE was searched for the original review to 1995. This was updated by searching the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials on The Cochrane Library Issue 3 2001, MEDLINE(2000 to September 2001) and EMBASE (1998 to September 2001). Selection criteria Intervention studies using counselling or education to modify more than one cardiovascular risk factor in adults from general populations, occupational groups, or high risk groups. Trials of less than 6 months duration were excluded. Data collection and analysis Data were extracted by two reviewers independently. Investigators were contacted to obtain missing information. Main results A total of 39 trials were found of which ten reported clinical event data. In the ten trials with clinical event end-points, the pooled odds ratios for total and CHD mortality were 0.96 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.92 to 1.01) and 0.96 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.04) respectively. Net changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and blood cholesterol were (weighted mean differences) −3.6 mmHg (95% CI −3.9 to −3.3 mmHg), −2.8 mmHg (95% CI −2.9 to −2.6 mmHg) and −0.07 mMol/l (95% CI −0.8 to −0.06 mMol/l) respectively. Odds of reduction in smoking prevalence was 20% (95% CI 8% to 31%). Statistical heterogeneity between the studies with respect to mortality and risk factor changes was due to trials focusing on hypertensive participants and those using considerable amounts of drug treatment. Authors’ conclusions The pooled effects suggest multiple risk factor intervention has no effect on mortality. However, a small, but potentially important, benefit of treatment (about a 10% reduction in CHD mortality) may have been missed. Risk factor changes were relatively modest, were related to the amount of pharmacological treatment used, and in some cases may have been over-estimated because of regression to the mean effects, lack of intention to treat analyses, habituation to blood pressure measurement, and use of self-reports of smoking. Interventions using personal or family counselling and education with or without pharmacological treatments appear to be more effective at achieving risk factor reduction and consequent reductions in mortality in high risk hypertensive populations. The evidence suggests that such interventions have limited utility in the general population. PMID:17054138

Trends in Cardiovascular Risk Factor Levels in the Minnesota Heart Survey (1980–2002) as Compared With the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1976–2002): A Partial Explanation for Minnesota's Low Cardiovascular Disease Mortality?

PubMed Central

Wang, Huifen; Steffen, Lyn M.; Jacobs, David R.; Zhou, Xia; Blackburn, Henry; Berger, Alan K.; Filion, Kristian B.; Luepker, Russell V.

2011-01-01

The authors compared trends in and levels of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors between the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, metropolitan area (Twin Cities) and the entire US population to help explain the ongoing decline in US CHD mortality rates. The study populations for risk factors were adults aged 25–74 years enrolled in 2 population-based surveillance studies: the Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS) in 1980–1982, 1985–1987, 1990–1992, 1995–1997, and 2000–2002 and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in 1976–1980, 1988–1994, 1999–2000, and 2001–2002. The authors found a continuous decline in CHD mortality rates in the Twin Cities and nationally between 1980 and 2000. Similar decreasing rates of change in risk factors across survey years, parallel to the CHD mortality rate decline, were observed in MHS and in NHANES. Adults in MHS had generally lower levels of CHD risk factors than NHANES adults, consistent with the CHD mortality rate difference. Approximately 47% of women and 44% of men in MHS had no elevated CHD risk factors, including smoking, hypertension, high cholesterol, and obesity, versus 36% of women and 34% of men in NHANES. The better CHD risk factor profile in the Twin Cities may partly explain the lower CHD death rate there. PMID:21273396

Psychosocial and socioeconomic determinants of cardiovascular mortality in Eastern Europe: A multicentre prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tillmann, Taavi; Pikhart, Hynek; Peasey, Anne; Kubinova, Ruzena; Pajak, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Malyutina, Sofia; Steptoe, Andrew; Kivimäki, Mika; Marmot, Michael; Bobak, Martin

2017-12-01

Eastern European countries have some of the highest rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, much of which cannot be adequately accounted for by conventional CVD risk factors. Psychosocial and socioeconomic factors may affect risk of CVD, but relatively few studies on this issue have been undertaken in Eastern Europe. We investigated whether various psychosocial factors are associated with CVD mortality independently from each other and whether they can help explain differences in CVD mortality between Eastern European populations. Participants were from the Health, Alcohol and Psychological factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) cohort study in Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic, including a total of 20,867 men and women aged 43-74 years and free of CVD at baseline examination during 2002-2005. Participants were followed-up for CVD mortality after linkage to national mortality registries for a median of 7.2 years. During the follow-up, 556 participants died from CVD. After mutual adjustment, six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with increased risk of CVD death: unemployment, low material amenities, depression, being single, infrequent contacts with friends or relatives. The hazard ratios [HRs] for these six factors ranged between 1.26 [95% confidence interval 1.14-1.40] and 1.81 [95% confidence interval 1.24-2.64], fully adjusted for each other, and conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Population-attributable fractions ranged from 8% [4%-13%] to 22% [11%-31%] for each factor, when measured on average across the three cohorts. However, the prevalence of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors and their HRs were similar between the three countries. Altogether, these factors could not explain why participants from Russia had higher CVD mortality when compared to participants from Poland/Czech Republic. Limitations of this study include measurement error that could lead to residual confounding; and the possibilities for reverse causation and/or unmeasured confounding from observational studies to lead to associations that are not causal in nature. Six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with cardiovascular mortality, independent of each other. Differences in mortality between cohorts from Russia versus Poland or Check Republic remained unexplained.

Psychosocial and socioeconomic determinants of cardiovascular mortality in Eastern Europe: A multicentre prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Kubinova, Ruzena; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Marmot, Michael; Bobak, Martin

2017-01-01

Background Eastern European countries have some of the highest rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, much of which cannot be adequately accounted for by conventional CVD risk factors. Psychosocial and socioeconomic factors may affect risk of CVD, but relatively few studies on this issue have been undertaken in Eastern Europe. We investigated whether various psychosocial factors are associated with CVD mortality independently from each other and whether they can help explain differences in CVD mortality between Eastern European populations. Methods Participants were from the Health, Alcohol and Psychological factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) cohort study in Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic, including a total of 20,867 men and women aged 43–74 years and free of CVD at baseline examination during 2002–2005. Participants were followed-up for CVD mortality after linkage to national mortality registries for a median of 7.2 years. Results During the follow-up, 556 participants died from CVD. After mutual adjustment, six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with increased risk of CVD death: unemployment, low material amenities, depression, being single, infrequent contacts with friends or relatives. The hazard ratios [HRs] for these six factors ranged between 1.26 [95% confidence interval 1.14–1.40] and 1.81 [95% confidence interval 1.24–2.64], fully adjusted for each other, and conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Population-attributable fractions ranged from 8% [4%–13%] to 22% [11%–31%] for each factor, when measured on average across the three cohorts. However, the prevalence of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors and their HRs were similar between the three countries. Altogether, these factors could not explain why participants from Russia had higher CVD mortality when compared to participants from Poland/Czech Republic. Limitations of this study include measurement error that could lead to residual confounding; and the possibilities for reverse causation and/or unmeasured confounding from observational studies to lead to associations that are not causal in nature. Conclusions Six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with cardiovascular mortality, independent of each other. Differences in mortality between cohorts from Russia versus Poland or Check Republic remained unexplained. PMID:29211726

Prevalent and Incident Tuberculosis Are Independent Risk Factors for Mortality among Patients Accessing Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

PubMed Central

Gupta, Ankur; Wood, Robin; Kaplan, Richard; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Lawn, Stephen D.

2013-01-01

Background Patients with prevalent or incident tuberculosis (TB) in antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa have high mortality risk. However, published data are contradictory as to whether TB is a risk factor for mortality that is independent of CD4 cell counts and other patient characteristics. Methods/Findings This observational ART cohort study was based in Cape Town, South Africa. Deaths from all causes were ascertained among patients receiving ART for up to 8 years. TB diagnoses and 4-monthly CD4 cell counts were recorded. Mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and identify risk factors for mortality. Of 1544 patients starting ART, 464 patients had prevalent TB at baseline and 424 developed incident TB during a median of 5.0 years follow-up. Most TB diagnoses (73.6%) were culture-confirmed. A total of 208 (13.5%) patients died during ART and mortality rates were 8.84 deaths/100 person-years during the first year of ART and decreased to 1.14 deaths/100 person-years after 5 years. In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline and time-updated risk factors, both prevalent and incident TB were independent risk factors for mortality (IRR 1.7 [95% CI, 1.2–2.3] and 2.7 [95% CI, 1.9–3.8], respectively). Adjusted mortality risks were higher in the first 6 months of ART for those with prevalent TB at baseline (IRR 2.33; 95% CI, 1.5–3.5) and within the 6 months following diagnoses of incident TB (IRR 3.8; 95% CI, 2.6–5.7). Conclusions Prevalent TB at baseline and incident TB during ART were strongly associated with increased mortality risk. This effect was time-dependent, suggesting that TB and mortality are likely to be causally related and that TB is not simply an epiphenomenon among highly immunocompromised patients. Strategies to rapidly diagnose, treat and prevent TB prior to and during ART urgently need to be implemented. PMID:23418463

Management and risk factors for mortality in very elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Renilla, Alfredo; Barreiro, Manuel; Barriales, Vicente; Torres, Francisco; Alvarez, Paloma; Lambert, Jose L

2013-01-01

Elderly patients often remain underrepresented in clinical trials. The aim of our study was to analyze the treatment, clinical outcome and risk factors for mortality in patients aged ≥85 years with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). From 2005-2011, 102 patients aged ≥85 years with STEMI admitted to a coronary care unit were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical data, treatment and outcome were recorded. Reperfusion strategy and its influence in hospital morbidity and mortality were evaluated. Morbidity was defined as the presence of heart failure (Killip-Kimball >1), arrhythmias, mechanical complications, stroke or major bleeding. Risk factors for mortality were assessed by multivariate analysis. The mean age was 87.5±2.5 years (range 85-96). Therapeutic strategy on admission was: primary-angioplasty (PCI) for 33 patients (32.3%) fibrinolysis for 30 patients (29.4%) and conservative treatment for 35 patients (34.3%). In the four remaining patients, rescue angioplasty was required. A total of 29 patients (28.4%) died, and morbidity was seen in 63 patients (61.7%). The morbidity and mortality rates in the conservative treatment group (77.1% and 48.5%) were higher than that found in the reperfusion strategy group (primary-PCI and fibrinolysis; 53.7% and 17.9%; P=0.02 and P=0.002, respectively). Regarding mortality, the univariate analysis showed that heart failure on admission (P=0.0001) and previous coronary artery disease (P=0.01) were prognostic variables. Only heart failure was an independent risk factor for mortality (odds ratio=3.64, 95% CI 0.78-21.87, P<0.0001). Mortality and morbidity in very elderly patients with STEMI are very high, especially in those not receiving reperfusion therapies. Heart failure on admission was an independent risk factor for hospital mortality. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Lifestyle factors and mortality risk in individuals with diabetes mellitus: are the associations different from those in individuals without diabetes?

PubMed

Sluik, Diewertje; Boeing, Heiner; Li, Kuanrong; Kaaks, Rudolf; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Tjønneland, Anne; Arriola, Larraitz; Barricarte, Aurelio; Masala, Giovanna; Grioni, Sara; Tumino, Rosario; Ricceri, Fulvio; Mattiello, Amalia; Spijkerman, Annemieke M W; van der A, Daphne L; Sluijs, Ivonne; Franks, Paul W; Nilsson, Peter M; Orho-Melander, Marju; Fhärm, Eva; Rolandsson, Olov; Riboli, Elio; Romaguera, Dora; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Nöthlings, Ute

2014-01-01

Thus far, it is unclear whether lifestyle recommendations for people with diabetes should be different from those for the general public. We investigated whether the associations between lifestyle factors and mortality risk differ between individuals with and without diabetes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a cohort was formed of 6,384 persons with diabetes and 258,911 EPIC participants without known diabetes. Joint Cox proportional hazard regression models of people with and without diabetes were built for the following lifestyle factors in relation to overall mortality risk: BMI, waist/height ratio, 26 food groups, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, smoking. Likelihood ratio tests for heterogeneity assessed statistical differences in regression coefficients. Multivariable adjusted mortality risk among individuals with diabetes compared with those without was increased, with an HR of 1.62 (95% CI 1.51, 1.75). Intake of fruit, legumes, nuts, seeds, pasta, poultry and vegetable oil was related to a lower mortality risk, and intake of butter and margarine was related to an increased mortality risk. These associations were significantly different in magnitude from those in diabetes-free individuals, but directions were similar. No differences between people with and without diabetes were detected for the other lifestyle factors. Diabetes status did not substantially influence the associations between lifestyle and mortality risk. People with diabetes may benefit more from a healthy diet, but the directions of association were similar. Thus, our study suggests that lifestyle advice with respect to mortality for patients with diabetes should not differ from recommendations for the general population.

Impact of covariate models on the assessment of the air pollution-mortality association in a single- and multipollutant context.

PubMed

Sacks, Jason D; Ito, Kazuhiko; Wilson, William E; Neas, Lucas M

2012-10-01

With the advent of multicity studies, uniform statistical approaches have been developed to examine air pollution-mortality associations across cities. To assess the sensitivity of the air pollution-mortality association to different model specifications in a single and multipollutant context, the authors applied various regression models developed in previous multicity time-series studies of air pollution and mortality to data from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (May 1992-September 1995). Single-pollutant analyses used daily cardiovascular mortality, fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm; PM(2.5)), speciated PM(2.5), and gaseous pollutant data, while multipollutant analyses used source factors identified through principal component analysis. In single-pollutant analyses, risk estimates were relatively consistent across models for most PM(2.5) components and gaseous pollutants. However, risk estimates were inconsistent for ozone in all-year and warm-season analyses. Principal component analysis yielded factors with species associated with traffic, crustal material, residual oil, and coal. Risk estimates for these factors exhibited less sensitivity to alternative regression models compared with single-pollutant models. Factors associated with traffic and crustal material showed consistently positive associations in the warm season, while the coal combustion factor showed consistently positive associations in the cold season. Overall, mortality risk estimates examined using a source-oriented approach yielded more stable and precise risk estimates, compared with single-pollutant analyses.

The importance of early life family factors in the association between cardiovascular risk factors and early cardiovascular mortality

PubMed Central

Kjøllesdal, Marte K R; Ariansen, Inger; Mortensen, Laust H; Næss, Øyvind

2017-01-01

Objective To explore the importance of early life factors shared by siblings, such as parental socioeconomic position, parental practices, housing and neighbourhood, for the association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and mortality from CVD, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease. Methods Norwegian health surveys (1974–2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study and the Cause of Death Registry. Participants with at least one full sibling among survey participants (n=2 71 643) were included. Data on CVD risk factors, body mass index (BMI), height, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol (TC) were stratified into ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ risk, and smoking to ‘daily smoking’ and ‘not daily smoking’. Results Mean age of participants was 41 years, mean follow-up time was 19 years and during follow-up 2512 died from CVD. For each category of increased risk factor level, the per step HR of CVD mortality was increased by 1.91 (95% CI 1.78 to 2.05) for SBP, 1.67 (1.58 to 1.76) for TC, 1.44 (1.36 to 1.53) for BMI, 1.26 (1.18 to 1.35) for height and 2.89 (2.66 to 3.14) for smoking. In analyses where each sibship (groups of full siblings) had a group-specific baseline hazard, these associations were attenuated to 1.74, 1.51, 1.29, 1.18 and 2.63, respectively. The associations between risk factors and IHD mortality followed the same pattern. Conclusion Early life family factors explained a small part of the association between risk factors and mortality from CVD and IHD in a relatively young sample. PMID:28878947

The importance of early life family factors in the association between cardiovascular risk factors and early cardiovascular mortality.

PubMed

Kjøllesdal, Marte K R; Ariansen, Inger; Mortensen, Laust H; Næss, Øyvind

2017-01-01

To explore the importance of early life factors shared by siblings, such as parental socioeconomic position, parental practices, housing and neighbourhood, for the association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and mortality from CVD, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease. Norwegian health surveys (1974-2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study and the Cause of Death Registry. Participants with at least one full sibling among survey participants (n=2 71 643) were included. Data on CVD risk factors, body mass index (BMI), height, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol (TC) were stratified into 'low', 'medium' and 'high' risk, and smoking to 'daily smoking' and 'not daily smoking'. Mean age of participants was 41 years, mean follow-up time was 19 years and during follow-up 2512 died from CVD. For each category of increased risk factor level, the per step HR of CVD mortality was increased by 1.91 (95% CI 1.78 to 2.05) for SBP, 1.67 (1.58 to 1.76) for TC, 1.44 (1.36 to 1.53) for BMI, 1.26 (1.18 to 1.35) for height and 2.89 (2.66 to 3.14) for smoking. In analyses where each sibship (groups of full siblings) had a group-specific baseline hazard, these associations were attenuated to 1.74, 1.51, 1.29, 1.18 and 2.63, respectively. The associations between risk factors and IHD mortality followed the same pattern. Early life family factors explained a small part of the association between risk factors and mortality from CVD and IHD in a relatively young sample.

Cardiovascular Comorbidity and Mortality in Men With Prostate Cancer Treated With Brachytherapy-Based Radiation With or Without Hormonal Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nanda, Akash, E-mail: akash.nanda@orlandohealth.com; Chen, Ming-Hui; Moran, Brian J.

Purpose: To assess the impact of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors and sequelae on the risk of all-cause mortality (ACM) in men treated for prostate cancer (PC). Methods and Materials: The study cohort comprised 5077 men with PC consecutively treated with curative intent between 1997 and 2006 at the Chicago Prostate Cancer Center. Cox and Fine and Gray's competing risks regression multivariable analyses were performed, assessing whether cardiovascular comorbidity impacted the risk of ACM and PC-specific mortality, respectively, adjusting for CAD risk factors (diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, or hypertension) and sequelae (congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction), age, year andmore » type of treatment, and known PC prognostic factors. Results: When compared with men with no comorbidity there was a significantly increased risk of ACM in men with congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.96, P<.001) and in men with diabetes mellitus (AHR 1.60, P=.03) and hypertension (AHR 1.25, P=.04). In contrast, men with hypercholesterolemia had a similar risk of ACM (AHR 0.68, P=.17) when compared with men with no comorbidity. Other factors associated with a significantly increased risk of ACM included age (AHR 1.09, P<.001), prostate-specific antigen level (AHR 1.25, P=.008), and Gleason score 8-10 disease (AHR 1.71, P=.003). Cardiovascular comorbidity did not impact the risk of PC-specific mortality. Conclusions: In addition to age and unfavorable PC prognostic factors, select CAD risk factors and sequelae are associated with an increased risk of ACM in men treated for PC. These comorbidity prognostic factors predict time courses of mortality from competing causes, which may be factored into the decision-making process when considering management options for PC in a given individual.« less

Surgical risk factors associated with lung transplantation.

PubMed

Paradela, M; González, D; Parente, I; Fernández, R; De La Torre, M M; Delgado, M; García, J A; Fieira, E; Bonhome, C; Maté, J M B

2009-01-01

Despite years of experience with lung transplantation, perioperative morbidity rates remain high. The objective of this study was to analyze our series of lung transplant recipients, seeking to identify possible intra- and postoperative risk factors associated with mortality. We performed a descriptive, retrospective study of 224 consecutive patients undergoing lung transplantation over a period of 112 months; we excluded retransplant procedures. We gathered details of the surgical procedure and postoperative period in the recovery unit. Univariate analysis using the chi-square test identified variables associated with the incidence of mortality. From 1999 to 2008, we performed 224 lung transplants, including 66% in men and 34% in women. Their overall mean age was 49.9 +/- 13.5 years. The conditions that led to transplantation were pulmonary fibrosis (38.4%); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease emphysema (29%); cystic fibrosis (10.7%); bronchiectasis (8.9%); pulmonary hypertension (3.1%); and other diseases (9.9%). A total of 124 (55.4%) patients underwent single and 100 (44.6%) received sequential bilateral lung transplantations. Surgical risk factors were identified in 51.3% of the cases, the most frequent being hemorrhage (25.3%), followed by severe pulmonary hypertension (14.7%) and cardiopulmonary bypass (12.1%). Greater perioperative mortality was detected among patients with surgical risk factors, namely, significantly related to cardiopulmonary bypass, pulmonary hypertension, and air leak. A higher frequency of surgical risk factors was observed among patients with bilateral lung transplantations and longer procedures, but they were not associated with greater perioperative mortality. Reoperation was necessary in 16 patients (7.2%), mainly owing to bleeding, it was not significantly related to mortality risk. The incidence of surgical risk factors in lung transplantation was high, especially in bilateral lung transplantations and prolonged procedures. Postoperative bleeding requiring reoperation was not frequent and not associated with increased preoperative mortality in our series.

Neighbourhoods and homicide mortality: an analysis of race/ethnic differences

PubMed Central

Krueger, P; Bond, H; Rogers, R; Hummer, R

2004-01-01

Objective: To examine whether measures of neighbourhood economic deprivation, social disorganisation, and acculturation explain homicide mortality differentials between Mexican Americans, non-Hispanic black Americans, and non-Hispanic white Americans, net of individual factors. Design: Prospective study, National Health Interview Survey (1986–1994) linked to subsequent mortality in the National Death Index (1986–1997). Setting: United States of America. Participants: A nationally representative sample of non-institutionalised Mexican Americans, non-Hispanic black Amricans, and non-Hispanic white Americans, aged 18–50 at the point of interview. Analysis: Cox proportional hazard models estimate the risk of death associated with various neighbourhood and individual factors. Main results: Both individual and neighbourhood risk factors partially account for race/ethnic disparities in homicide. Homicide mortality risks are between 20% and 50% higher for residents of areas that have economic inequality of 0.50 or greater based on the coefficient of variation, or where 4% or more of the residents are Mexican American, 10% or more of the residents are non-Hispanic black, or 20% or more of the households are headed by single parents (p⩽.05). But residents of areas where 10% or more of their neighbours are foreign born have 35% lower mortality risks than people living in areas with fewer foreign born people (p⩽0.05). These differences persist even after controlling for individual level risk factors. Conclusions: The findings support economic deprivation, social disorganisation, and acculturation theories, and suggest that both neighbourhood and individual risk factors affect race/ethnic differences in homicide mortality. Public health policies must focus on both individual and neighbourhood factors to reduce homicide risks in vulnerable populations. PMID:14966236

Risk factors for mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Lijie; Zhao, Sumei

2017-07-01

No consensus exists regarding the factors influencing mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD). This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the impact of various patient characteristics on the risk of mortality in such patients. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Central were searched for studies evaluating the risk factors for mortality in patients undergoing HD. The factors included age, gender, diabetes mellitus (DM), body mass index (BMI), previous cardiovascular disease (CVD), HD duration, hemoglobin, albumin, white blood cell, C-reactive protein (CRP), parathyroid hormone, total iron binding capacity (TIBC), iron, ln ferritin, adiponectin, apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), ApoA2, ApoA3, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), total cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), serum phosphate, troponin T (TnT), and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). Relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were derived. Data were synthesized using the random-effects model. Age (per 1-year increment), DM, previous CVD, CRP (higher versus lower), ln ferritin, adiponectin (per 10.0μg/mL increment), HbA1c (higher versus lower), TnT, and BNP were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. BMI (per 1kg/m 2 increment), hemoglobin (per 1d/dL increment), albumin (higher versus lower), TIBC, iron, ApoA2, and ApoA3 were associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality. Age (per 1-year increment), gender (women versus men), DM, previous CVD, HD duration, ln ferritin, HDL, and HbA1c (higher versus lower) significantly increased the risk of cardiac death. Albumin (higher versus lower), TIBC, and ApoA2 had a beneficial impact on the risk of cardiac death. Multiple markers and factors influence the risk of mortality and cardiac death in patients undergoing HD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

PubMed

White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

2015-09-01

Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

Comparing the impact of personal and parental risk factors, and parental lifespan on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease: findings from the Midspan Family cohort study.

PubMed

Hart, Carole; McCartney, Gerry; Gruer, Laurence; Watt, Graham

2015-10-01

We aimed to identify which personal and parental factors best explained all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). In 1996, data were collected on 2338 adult offspring of the participants in the 1972-1976 Renfrew and Paisley prospective cohort study. Recorded risk factors were assigned to 5 groups: mid-life biological and behavioural (BB), mid-life socioeconomic, parental BB, early-life socioeconomic and parental lifespan. Participants were followed up for mortality and hospital admissions to the end of 2011. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyse how well each group explained all-cause mortality or CVD. Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), a measure of goodness-of-fit, identified the most important groups. For all-cause mortality (1997 participants with complete data, 111 deaths), decreases in AIC from the null model (adjusting for age and sex) to models including mid-life BB, mid-life socioeconomic, parental BB, early-life socioeconomic and parental lifespan were 55.8, 21.6, 10.3, 7.3 and 5.9, respectively. For the CVD models (1736 participants, 276 with CVD), decreases were 37.8, 3.7, 6.7, 17.3 and 0.4. Mid-life BB factors were the most important for both all-cause mortality and CVD; mid-life socioeconomic factors were important for all-cause mortality, and early-life socioeconomic factors were important for CVD. Parental lifespan was the weakest factor. As mid-life BB risk factors best explained all-cause mortality and CVD, continued action to reduce these is warranted. Targeting adverse socioeconomic factors in mid-life and early life may contribute to reducing all-cause mortality and CVD risk, respectively. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Demographic survey of the level and determinants of perinatal mortality in Karachi, Pakistan.

PubMed

Fikree, F F; Gray, R H

1996-01-01

A demographic survey was used to estimate the level and determinants of perinatal mortality in eight lower socio-economic squatter settlements of Karachi, Pakistan. The perinatal mortality rate was 54.1 per 1000 births, with a stillbirth to early neonatal mortality ratio of 1:1. About 65% of neonatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period, and early neonatal mortality contributed 32% of all infant deaths. Risk factor assessment was conducted on 375 perinatal deaths and 6070 current survivors. Poorer socio-economic status variables such as maternal and paternal illiteracy, maternal work outside the home and fewer household assets were significantly associated with perinatal mortality as were biological factors of higher parental age, short birth intervals and poor obstetric history. Multivariable logistic analysis indicated that some socio-economic factors retained their significance after adjusting for the more proximate biological factors. Population attributable risk estimates suggest that public health measures for screening of high-risk women and use of family planning to space births will not improve perinatal mortality substantially without improvement of socio-economic conditions, particularly maternal education. The results of this study indicate that an evaluation of perinatal mortality can be conducted using pregnancy histories derived from demographic surveys.

Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality

PubMed Central

Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

2015-01-01

Background Recent steep declines in child mortality have been attributed in part to increased use of contraceptives and the resulting change in fertility behaviour, including an increase in the time between births. Previous observational studies have documented strong associations between short birth spacing and an increase in the risk of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality, compared to births with longer preceding birth intervals. In this analysis, we compare two methods to estimate the association between short birth intervals and mortality risk to better inform modelling efforts linking family planning and mortality in children. Objectives Our goal was to estimate the mortality risk for neonates, infants, and young children by preceding birth space using household survey data, controlling for mother-level factors and to compare the results to those from previous analyses with survey data. Design We assessed the potential for confounding when estimating the relative mortality risk by preceding birth interval and estimated mortality risk by birth interval in four categories: less than 18 months, 18–23 months, 24–35 months, and 36 months or longer. We estimated the relative risks among women who were 35 and older at the time of the survey with two methods: in a Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for potential confounders and also by stratifying Cox regression by mother, to control for all factors that remain constant over a woman's childbearing years. We estimated the overall effects for birth spacing in a meta-analysis with random survey effects. Results We identified several factors known for their associations with neonatal, infant, and child mortality that are also associated with preceding birth interval. When estimating the effect of birth spacing on mortality, we found that regression adjustment for these factors does not substantially change the risk ratio for short birth intervals compared to an unadjusted mortality ratio. For birth intervals less than 18 months, standard regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18–2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52–1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Conclusions Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality. PMID:26562139

Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality.

PubMed

Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

2015-01-01

Recent steep declines in child mortality have been attributed in part to increased use of contraceptives and the resulting change in fertility behaviour, including an increase in the time between births. Previous observational studies have documented strong associations between short birth spacing and an increase in the risk of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality, compared to births with longer preceding birth intervals. In this analysis, we compare two methods to estimate the association between short birth intervals and mortality risk to better inform modelling efforts linking family planning and mortality in children. Our goal was to estimate the mortality risk for neonates, infants, and young children by preceding birth space using household survey data, controlling for mother-level factors and to compare the results to those from previous analyses with survey data. We assessed the potential for confounding when estimating the relative mortality risk by preceding birth interval and estimated mortality risk by birth interval in four categories: less than 18 months, 18-23 months, 24-35 months, and 36 months or longer. We estimated the relative risks among women who were 35 and older at the time of the survey with two methods: in a Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for potential confounders and also by stratifying Cox regression by mother, to control for all factors that remain constant over a woman's childbearing years. We estimated the overall effects for birth spacing in a meta-analysis with random survey effects. We identified several factors known for their associations with neonatal, infant, and child mortality that are also associated with preceding birth interval. When estimating the effect of birth spacing on mortality, we found that regression adjustment for these factors does not substantially change the risk ratio for short birth intervals compared to an unadjusted mortality ratio. For birth intervals less than 18 months, standard regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18-2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52-1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality.

Repeatedly measured material and behavioral factors changed the explanation of socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Oude Groeniger, Joost; Kamphuis, Carlijn B; Mackenbach, Johan P; van Lenthe, Frank J

2017-11-01

We examined whether using repeatedly measured material and behavioral factors contributed differently to socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality compared to one baseline measurement. Data from the Dutch prospective GLOBE cohort were linked to mortality register data (1991-2013; N = 4,851). Socioeconomic position was measured at baseline by educational level and occupation. Material factors (financial difficulties, housing tenure, health insurance) and behavioral factors (smoking, leisure time physical activity, sports participation, and body mass index) were self-reported in 1991, 1997, and 2004. Cox proportional hazards regression and bootstrap methods were used to examine the contribution of baseline-only and time-varying risk factors to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Men and women in the lowest educational and occupational groups were at an increased risk of dying compared to the highest groups. The contribution of material factors to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality was smaller when multiple instead of baseline-only measurements were used (25%-65% vs. 49%-93%). The contribution of behavioral factors was larger when multiple measurements were used (39%-51% vs. 19%-40%). Inclusion of time-dependent risk factors contributes to understanding socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, but careful examination of the underlying mechanisms and suitability of the model is required. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Associations Between the Serum Metabolome and All-Cause Mortality Among African Americans in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

PubMed Central

Yu, Bing; Heiss, Gerardo; Alexander, Danny; Grams, Morgan E.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2016-01-01

Early and accurate identification of people at high risk of premature death may assist in the targeting of preventive therapies in order to improve overall health. To identify novel biomarkers for all-cause mortality, we performed untargeted metabolomics in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. We included 1,887 eligible ARIC African Americans, and 671 deaths occurred during a median follow-up period of 22.5 years (1987–2011). Chromatography and mass spectroscopy identified and quantitated 204 serum metabolites, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the longitudinal associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Nine metabolites, including cotinine, mannose, glycocholate, pregnendiol disulfate, α-hydroxyisovalerate, N-acetylalanine, andro-steroid monosulfate 2, uridine, and γ-glutamyl-leucine, showed independent associations with all-cause mortality, with an average risk change of 18% per standard-deviation increase in metabolite level (P < 1.23 × 10−4). A metabolite risk score, created on the basis of the weighted levels of the identified metabolites, improved the predictive ability of all-cause mortality over traditional risk factors (bias-corrected Harrell's C statistic 0.752 vs. 0.730). Mannose and glycocholate were associated with cardiovascular mortality (P < 1.23 × 10−4), but predictive ability was not improved beyond the traditional risk factors. This metabolomic analysis revealed potential novel biomarkers for all-cause mortality beyond the traditional risk factors. PMID:26956554

Smoking and mortality in stroke survivors: can we eliminate the paradox?

PubMed

Levine, Deborah A; Walter, James M; Karve, Sudeep J; Skolarus, Lesli E; Levine, Steven R; Mulhorn, Kristine A

2014-07-01

Many studies have suggested that smoking does not increase mortality in stroke survivors. Index event bias, a sample selection bias, potentially explains this paradoxical finding. Therefore, we compared all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality by cigarette smoking status among stroke survivors using methods to account for index event bias. Among 5797 stroke survivors of 45 years or older who responded to the National Health Interview Survey years 1997-2004, an annual, population-based survey of community-dwelling US adults, linked to the National Death Index, we estimated all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality by smoking status using Cox proportional regression and propensity score analysis to account for demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors. Mean follow-up was 4.5 years. From 1997 to 2004, 18.7% of stroke survivors smoked. There were 1988 deaths in this stroke survivor cohort, with 50% of deaths because of CVD and 15% because of cancer. Current smokers had an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-1.63) and cancer mortality (HR, 3.83; 95% CI, 2.48-5.91) compared with never smokers, after controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors. Current smokers had an increased risk of CVD mortality controlling for age and sex (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.64), but this risk did not persist after controlling for socioeconomic and clinical factors (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, .88-1.50). Stroke survivors who smoke have an increased risk of all-cause mortality, which is largely because of cancer mortality. Socioeconomic and clinical factors explain stroke survivors' higher risk of CVD mortality associated with smoking. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Combined associations of body weight and lifestyle factors with all cause and cause specific mortality in men and women: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Veronese, Nicola; Li, Yanping; Manson, JoAnn E; Willett, Walter C; Fontana, Luigi; Hu, Frank B

2016-11-24

 To evaluate the combined associations of diet, physical activity, moderate alcohol consumption, and smoking with body weight on risk of all cause and cause specific mortality.  Longitudinal study with up to 32 years of follow-up.  Nurses' Health Study (1980-2012) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2012).  74 582 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 39 284 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study who were free from cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline.  Exposures included body mass index (BMI), score on the alternate healthy eating index, level of physical activity, smoking habits, and alcohol drinking while outcome was mortality (all cause, cardiovascular, cancer). Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate the adjusted hazard ratios of all cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality with their 95% confidence intervals across categories of BMI, with 22.5-24.9 as the reference.  During up to 32 years of follow-up, there were 30 013 deaths (including 10 808 from cancer and 7189 from cardiovascular disease). In each of the four categories of BMI studied (18.5-22.4, 22.5-24.9, 25-29.9, ≥30), people with one or more healthy lifestyle factors had a significantly lower risk of total, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality than individuals with no low risk lifestyle factors. A combination of at least three low risk lifestyle factors and BMI between 18.5-22.4 was associated with the lowest risk of all cause (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.35 to 0.43), cancer (0.40, 0.34 to 0.47), and cardiovascular (0.37, 0.29 to 0.46) mortality, compared with those with BMI between 22.5-24.9 and none of the four low risk lifestyle factors.  Although people with a higher BMI can have lower risk of premature mortality if they also have at least one low risk lifestyle factor, the lowest risk of premature mortality is in people in the 18.5-22.4 BMI range with high score on the alternate healthy eating index, high level of physical activity, moderate alcohol drinking, and who do not smoke. It is important to consider diet and lifestyle factors in the evaluation of the association between BMI and mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

PubMed

2014-08-01

High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factor Effects and Total Mortality in Older Japanese Men in Japan and Hawaii

PubMed Central

Abbott, Robert D.; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Hozawa, Atsushi; Okamura, Tomonori; Kadowaki, Takashi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okuda, Nagako; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Okayama, Akira; Kita, Yoshikuni; Rodriguez, Beatriz L.; Yano, Katsuhiko; Curb, J. David

2017-01-01

Purpose To identify factors related to total mortality in older Japanese men in Japan and Hawaii. Methods Baseline data were collected from 1980 to 1982 in 1,379 men in Hawaii and 954 men in Japan. Ages ranged from 61 to 81 years with mortality follow-up over a 19 year period. Results Compared to Japan, men in Hawaii had a 2-fold excess of diabetes and a 4-fold excess of prevalent coronary heart disease (p<0.001). Total cholesterol and body mass index were also higher in Hawaii (p<0.001). In contrast, men in Japan had higher systolic blood pressure and were nearly 3-times more likely to smoke cigarettes (p<0.001). Although each cohort had elements of a poor risk factor profile, there was a 1.4-fold excess in the risk of death in Japan (49.4 vs. 36.2/1,000 person-years, p<0.001). While mortality was similar after risk factor adjustment, only blood pressure and cigarette smoking accounted for the higher risk of death in Japan. Conclusions Cigarette smoking and hypertension explain much of the excess mortality in Japan versus Hawaii. In this comparison of genetically similar cohorts, evidence further suggests that Japanese in Japan are equally susceptible to develop the same adverse risk factor conditions that exist in Hawaii. PMID:19041590

Fatty acids linked to cardiovascular mortality are associated with risk factors

PubMed Central

Ebbesson, Sven O. E.; Voruganti, Venkata S.; Higgins, Paul B.; Fabsitz, Richard R.; Ebbesson, Lars O.; Laston, Sandra; Harris, William S.; Kennish, John; Umans, Benjamin D.; Wang, Hong; Devereux, Richard B.; Okin, Peter M.; Weissman, Neil J.; MacCluer, Jean W.; Umans, Jason G.; Howard, Barbara V.

2015-01-01

Background Although saturated fatty acids (FAs) have been linked to cardiovascular mortality, it is not clear whether this outcome is attributable solely to their effects on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) or whether other risk factors are also associated with FAs. The Western Alaskan Native population, with its rapidly changing lifestyles, shift in diet from unsaturated to saturated fatty acids and dramatic increase in cardiovascular disease (CVD), presents an opportunity to elucidate any associations between specific FAs and known CVD risk factors. Objective We tested the hypothesis that the specific FAs previously identified as related to CVD mortality are also associated with individual CVD risk factors. Methods In this community-based, cross-sectional study, relative proportions of FAs in plasma and red blood cell membranes were compared with CVD risk factors in a sample of 758 men and women aged ≥35 years. Linear regression analyses were used to analyze relations between specific FAs and CVD risk factors (LDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body mass index, fasting glucose and fasting insulin, 2-hour glucose and 2-hour insulin). Results The specific saturated FAs previously identified as related to CVD mortality, the palmitic and myristic acids, were adversely associated with most CVD risk factors, whereas unsaturated linoleic acid (18:2n-6) and the marine n-3 FAs were not associated or were beneficially associated with CVD risk factors. Conclusions The results suggest that CVD risk factors are more extensively affected by individual FAs than hitherto recognized, and that risk for CVD, MI and stroke can be reduced by reducing the intake of palmitate, myristic acid and simple carbohydrates and improved by greater intake of linoleic acid and marine n-3 FAs. PMID:26274054

Explaining large mortality differences between adjacent counties: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Schootman, M; Chien, L; Yun, S; Pruitt, S L

2016-08-02

Extensive geographic variation in adverse health outcomes exists, but global measures ignore differences between adjacent geographic areas, which often have very different mortality rates. We describe a novel application of advanced spatial analysis to 1) examine the extent of differences in mortality rates between adjacent counties, 2) describe differences in risk factors between adjacent counties, and 3) determine if differences in risk factors account for the differences in mortality rates between adjacent counties. We conducted a cross-sectional study in Missouri, USA with 2005-2009 age-adjusted all-cause mortality rate as the outcome and county-level explanatory variables from a 2007 population-based survey. We used a multi-level Gaussian model and a full Bayesian approach to analyze the difference in risk factors relative to the difference in mortality rates between adjacent counties. The average mean difference in the age-adjusted mortality rate between any two adjacent counties was -3.27 (standard deviation = 95.5) per 100,000 population (maximum = 258.80). Six variables were associated with mortality differences: inability to obtain medical care because of cost (β = 2.6), hospital discharge rate (β = 1.03), prevalence of fair/poor health (β = 2.93), and hypertension (β = 4.75) and poverty prevalence (β = 6.08). Examining differences in mortality rates and associated risk factors between adjacent counties provides additional insight for future interventions to reduce geographic disparities.

Attributable causes of cancer in Japan in 2005--systematic assessment to estimate current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan.

PubMed

Inoue, M; Sawada, N; Matsuda, T; Iwasaki, M; Sasazuki, S; Shimazu, T; Shibuya, K; Tsugane, S

2012-05-01

To contribute to evidence-based policy decision making for national cancer control, we conducted a systematic assessment to estimate the current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan in 2005. We first estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of each cancer attributable to known risk factors from relative risks derived primarily from Japanese pooled analyses and large-scale cohort studies and the prevalence of exposure in the period around 1990. Using nationwide vital statistics records and incidence estimates, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2005. In 2005, ≈ 55% of cancer among men was attributable to preventable risk factors in Japan. The corresponding figure was lower among women, but preventable risk factors still accounted for nearly 30% of cancer. In men, tobacco smoking had the highest PAF (30% for incidence and 35% for mortality, respectively) followed by infectious agents (23% and 23%). In women, in contrast, infectious agents had the highest PAF (18% and 19% for incidence and mortality, respectively) followed by tobacco smoking (6% and 8%). In Japan, tobacco smoking and infections are major causes of cancer. Further control of these factors will contribute to substantial reductions in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.

Calf and replacement heifer mortality from birth until weaning in pasture-based dairy herds in New Zealand.

PubMed

Cuttance, E L; Mason, W A; McDermott, J; Laven, R A; McDougall, S; Phyn, C V C

2017-10-01

The aims of this study were to (1) estimate the perinatal (birth to 24 h) and postnatal (∼24 h to the mean weaning age of 13 wk) mortality risk in pasture-based dairy calves until weaning, and (2) identify associated risk factors in the 2015 calving season. A prospective survey of 32 seasonal calving dairy farms was undertaken. Farmers recorded (daily) the number and sex of the calves alive or dead in the paddocks where cows calved. All daily animal movements in and out of the calf rearing facilities, including death and euthanasia, and the identification of the animals (if applicable) were recorded, and a survey of the farm management practices was undertaken. Individual and farm-level risk factors for perinatal mortality were modeled separately using generalized logistic mixed models with a random effect fitted for herd. Postnatal mortality incidence risk was calculated using time at risk for each calf from 24 h of age, collapsed into weeks, and multiplying the incidence risk by the mean weaning age of the study population. Farm-level risk factors contributing to postnatal mortality in the first week of life were assessed using a multivariable logistic mixed regression model. The mean perinatal mortality risk was 5.7% (95% confidence interval 5.4 to 6.1%) with a range from 2.2 to 8.6% (18,437 calves, 30 farms). Perinatal calf mortality was greater for male relative to female calves (odds ratio 1.39; 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 1.59), calves born in the first week of the calving period in comparison to wk 2 to 11 (odds ratio 0.32 to 0.66), and those born on days with greater rainfall (odds ratio 1.01 per 1 mm increase; 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.02). At the farm level, perinatal mortality increased for every extra week of calving period length (odds ratio 1.12; 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.17). The mean postnatal mortality risk was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.6 to 4.6%) with a range of 0 to 11% between farms. Farm-level risk factors contributing to mortality in the first week of life included farmer-reported disease problems in calves (odds ratio 2.2; 95% confidence interval 1.62 to 2.96), or calves hand-fed colostrum in the first 12 h of life (odds ratio 1.66; 95% confidence interval 1.26 to 2.19), which was assumed to be associated with poor colostrum quality and bacterial contamination. Regional differences were also observed in both perinatal and postnatal mortality risks, indicating that weather conditions, herd size, and management variations contribute to mortality incidence. In summary, the mortality risk of perinatal calves and postnatal calves until weaning on pasture-based farms is comparable with data published from other dairying systems despite the notable management differences. Several risk factors were identified that could be managed to reduce mortality incidence of dairy calves. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychological Language on Twitter Predicts County-Level Heart Disease Mortality

PubMed Central

Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R.; Merchant, Raina M.; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A.; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E.; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

2015-01-01

Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions—especially anger—emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. PMID:25605707

Psychological language on Twitter predicts county-level heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R; Merchant, Raina M; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E; Ungar, Lyle H; Seligman, Martin E P

2015-02-01

Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions-especially anger-emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. © The Author(s) 2014.

Association of temporal trends in risk factors and treatment uptake with coronary heart disease mortality, 1994-2005.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Machado, Márcio; Farahati, Farah; Wang, Xuesong; Witteman, William; van der Velde, Gabrielle; Tu, Jack V; Lee, Douglas S; Goodman, Shaun G; Petrella, Robert; O'Flaherty, Martin; Krahn, Murray; Capewell, Simon

2010-05-12

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined substantially in Canada since 1994. To determine what proportion of this decline was associated with temporal trends in CHD risk factors and advancements in medical treatments. Prospective analytic study of the Ontario, Canada, population aged 25 to 84 years between 1994 and 2005, using an updated version of the validated IMPACT model, which integrates data on population size, CHD mortality, risk factors, and treatment uptake changes. Relative risks and regression coefficients from the published literature quantified the relationship between CHD mortality and (1) evidence-based therapies in 8 distinct CHD subpopulations (acute myocardial infarction [AMI], acute coronary syndromes, secondary prevention post-AMI, chronic coronary artery disease, heart failure in the hospital vs in the community, and primary prevention for hyperlipidemia or hypertension) and (2) population trends in 6 risk factors (smoking, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, plasma cholesterol level, exercise, and obesity). The number of deaths prevented or delayed in 2005; secondary outcome measures were improvements in medical treatments and trends in risk factors. Between 1994 and 2005, the age-adjusted CHD mortality rate in Ontario decreased by 35% from 191 to 125 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, translating to an estimated 7585 fewer CHD deaths in 2005. Improvements in medical and surgical treatments were associated with 43% (range, 11% to 124%) of the total mortality decrease, most notably in AMI (8%; range, -5% to 40%), chronic stable coronary artery disease (17%; range, 7% to 35%), and heart failure occurring while in the community (10%; range, 6% to 31%). Trends in risk factors accounted for 3660 fewer CHD deaths prevented or delayed (48% of total; range, 28% to 64%), specifically, reductions in total cholesterol (23%; range, 10% to 33%) and systolic blood pressure (20%; range, 13% to 26%). Increasing diabetes prevalence and body mass index had an inverse relationship associated with higher CHD mortality of 6% (range, 4% to 8%) and 2% (range, 1% to 4%), respectively. Between 1994 and 2005, there was a decrease in CHD mortality rates in Ontario that was associated primarily with trends in risk factors and improvements in medical treatments, each explaining about half of the decrease.

Urinary Sodium Concentration Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in a Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Population

PubMed Central

Gand, Elise; Ragot, Stéphanie; Bankir, Lise; Piguel, Xavier; Fumeron, Frédéric; Halimi, Jean-Michel; Marechaud, Richard; Roussel, Ronan; Hadjadj, Samy; Study group, SURDIAGENE

2017-01-01

Objective. Sodium intake is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. However, no study has specifically reported an association between cardiovascular mortality and urinary sodium concentration (UNa). We examined the association of UNa with mortality in a cohort of type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. Methods. Patients were followed for all-cause death and cardiovascular death. Baseline UNa was measured from second morning spot urinary sample. We used Cox proportional hazard models to identify independent predictors of mortality. Improvement in prediction of mortality by the addition of UNa to a model including known risk factors was assessed by the relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI) index. Results. Participants (n = 1,439) were followed for a median of 5.7 years, during which 254 cardiovascular deaths and 429 all-cause deaths were recorded. UNa independently predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. An increase of one standard deviation of UNa was associated with a decrease of 21% of all-cause mortality and 22% of cardiovascular mortality. UNa improved all-cause and cardiovascular mortality prediction beyond identified risk factors (rIDI = 2.8%, P = 0.04 and rIDI = 4.6%, P = 0.02, resp.). Conclusions. In T2D, UNa was an independent predictor of mortality (low concentration is associated with increased risk) and improved modestly its prediction in addition to traditional risk factors. PMID:28255559

Reaction Time and Mortality from the Major Causes of Death: The NHANES-III Study

PubMed Central

Hagger-Johnson, Gareth; Deary, Ian J.; Davies, Carolyn A.; Weiss, Alexander; Batty, G. David

2014-01-01

Objective Studies examining the relation of information processing speed, as measured by reaction time, with mortality are scarce. We explored these associations in a representative sample of the US population. Methods Participants were 5,134 adults (2,342 men) aged 20–59 years from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988–94). Results Adjusted for age, sex, and ethnic minority status, a 1 SD slower reaction time was associated with a raised risk of mortality from all-causes (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.12, 1.39) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.17, 1.58). Having 1 SD more variable reaction time was also associated with greater risk of all-cause (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.19, 1.55) and CVD (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.33, 1.70) mortality. No associations were observed for cancer mortality. The magnitude of the relationships was comparable in size to established risk factors in this dataset, such as smoking. Interpretation Alongside better-established risk factors, reaction time is associated with increased risk of premature death and cardiovascular disease. It is a candidate risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. PMID:24489645

Oak mortality risk factors and mortality estimation

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Zhaofei Fan; John M. Kabrick; Randy G. Jensen

2006-01-01

Managers are often concerned about oak mortality in maturing mixed-oak forests, but they often lack explicit information about mortality risk for oaks that differ in species, size, crown class, competitive status, and growth rate. In eastern North America, tree species in the red oak group (Quercus Section Lobatae) are typically...

Mortality and economic instability: detailed analyses for Britain and comparative analyses for selected industrialized countries.

PubMed

Brenner, M H

1983-01-01

This paper discusses a first-stage analysis of the link of unemployment rates, as well as other economic, social and environmental health risk factors, to mortality rates in postwar Britain. The results presented represent part of an international study of the impact of economic change on mortality patterns in industrialized countries. The mortality patterns examined include total and infant mortality and (by cause) cardiovascular (total), cerebrovascular and heart disease, cirrhosis of the liver, and suicide, homicide and motor vehicle accidents. Among the most prominent factors that beneficially influence postwar mortality patterns in England/Wales and Scotland are economic growth and stability and health service availability. A principal detrimental factor to health is a high rate of unemployment. Additional factors that have an adverse influence on mortality rates are cigarette consumption and heavy alcohol use and unusually cold winter temperatures (especially in Scotland). The model of mortality that includes both economic changes and behavioral and environmental risk factors was successfully applied to infant mortality rates in the interwar period. In addition, the "simple" economic change model of mortality (using only economic indicators) was applied to other industrialized countries. In Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, the simple version of the economic change model could be successfully applied only if the analysis was begun before World War II; for analysis beginning in the postwar era, the more sophisticated economic change model, including behavioral and environmental risk factors, was required. In France, West Germany, Italy, and Spain, by contrast, some success was achieved using the simple economic change model.

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments.

PubMed

Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Rastam, Samer; Saidi, Olfa; Sözmen, Kaan; Shoaibi, Azza; Husseini, Abdullatif; Fouad, Fouad; Ben Mansour, Nadia; Aissi, Wafa; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Unal, Belgin; Bandosz, Piotr; Bennett, Kathleen; Dherani, Mukesh; Al Ali, Radwan; Maziak, Wasim; Arık, Hale; Gerçeklioğlu, Gül; Altun, Deniz Utku; Şimşek, Hatice; Doganay, Sinem; Demiral, Yücel; Aslan, Özgür; Unwin, Nigel; Phillimore, Peter; Achour, Nourredine; Aissi, Waffa; Allani, Riadh; Arfa, Chokra; Abu-Kteish, Heidar; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Al Ali, Radwan; Altun, Deniz; Ahmad, Balsam; Arık, Hale; Aslan, Özgür; Beltaifa, Latifa; Ben Mansour, Nadia; Bennett, Kathleen; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Ben Salah, Nabil; Collins, Marissa; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; Dherani, Mukesh; Demiral, Yücel; Doganay, Sinem; Elias, Madonna; Ergör, Gül; Fadhil, Ibtihal; Fouad, Fouad; Gerçeklioğlu, Gül; Ghandour, Rula; Göğen, Sibel; Husseini, Abdullatif; Jaber, Samer; Kalaca, Sibel; Khatib, Rana; Khatib, Rasha; Koudsie, Saer; Kilic, Bülent; Lassoued, Olfa; Mason, Helen; Maziak, Wasim; Mayaleh, Maher Abou; Mikki, Nahed; Moukeh, Ghmaez; Flaherty, Martin O; Phillimore, Peter; Rastam, Samer; Roglic, Gojka; Saidi, Olfa; Saatli, Gül; Satman, Ilhan; Shoaibi, Azza; Şimşek, Hatice; Soulaiman, Nesrien; Sözmen, Kaan; Tlili, Faten; Unal, Belgin; Unwin, Nigel; Yardim, Nazan; Zaman, Shahaduz

2016-04-01

Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality risk stratification in severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients.

PubMed

Beliaev, A M; Marshall, R J; Smith, W; Windsor, J A

2012-03-01

The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to identify early risk factors of mortality and develop a mortality risk stratification instrument for severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. It has been shown that Jehovah's Witness patients with the Auckland Anaemia Mortality Risk Score (Auckland AMRS) of 0 to 3 had 4% mortality, Auckland AMRS 4 to 5 32%, Auckland AMRS 6 to 7 50% and Auckland AMRS 8 and above 83%. It is concluded that the Auckland AMRS predicts mortality of severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. © 2012 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and risk factors for mortality of early- and late-onset invasive candidiasis in intensive care units in China

PubMed Central

Yang, Yi; Guo, Fengmei; Kang, Yan; Zang, Bin; Cui, Wei; Qin, Bingyu; Qin, Yingzhi; Fang, Qiang; Qin, Tiehe; Jiang, Dongpo; Cai, Bojing; Li, Ruoyu; Qiu, Haibo

2017-01-01

Abstract To identify the epidemiology, treatments, outcomes, and risk factors for patients with early- or late-onset invasive candidiasis (EOIC or LOIC) in intensive care units in China. Patients were classified as EOIC (≤10 days) or LOIC (>10 days) according to the time from hospital admission to IC onset to identify distinct clinical characteristics. There were 105 EOIC cases and 201 LOIC cases in this study. EOIC was related to more severe clinical conditions at ICU admission or prior to IC. Significantly, more cases of Candida parapsilosis infection were found in patients with LOIC than in those with EOIC. The mortality of EOIC was significantly lower than that for LOIC. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score at ICI diagnosis in the EOIC group and the interval from ICU admission to ICI occurrence in the LOIC group were identified as risk factors for mortality. Susceptibility to the first-line agent was associated with a lower risk of mortality in the LOIC group. The mortality rate was significantly lower in the EOIC group, and there were more cases of non-albicans infection in the LOIC group. Susceptibility to the first-line agent was an important predictor of mortality in the LOIC group. SOFA score at ICI diagnosis in the EOIC group and interval from ICU admission to ICI occurrence in the LOIC group were identified as risk factors for mortality. PMID:29049184

A multivariable assessment quantifying effects of cohort-level factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk in cohorts of U.S. commercial feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Babcock, A H; Cernicchiaro, N; White, B J; Dubnicka, S R; Thomson, D U; Ives, S E; Scott, H M; Milliken, G A; Renter, D G

2013-01-01

Economic losses due to cattle mortality and culling have a substantial impact on the feedlot industry. Since criteria for culling may vary and may affect measures of cumulative mortality within cattle cohorts, it is important to assess both mortality and culling when evaluating cattle losses over time and among feedlots. To date, there are no published multivariable assessments of factors associated with combined mortality and culling risk. Our objective was to evaluate combined mortality and culling losses in feedlot cattle cohorts and quantify effects of commonly measured cohort-level risk factors (weight at feedlot arrival, gender, and month of feedlot arrival) using data routinely collected by commercial feedlots. We used retrospective data representing 8,904,965 animals in 54,416 cohorts from 16 U.S. feedlots from 2000 to 2007. The sum of mortality and culling counts for each cohort (given the number of cattle at risk) was used to generate the outcome of interest, the cumulative incidence of combined mortality and culling. Associations between this outcome variable and cohort-level risk factors were evaluated using a mixed effects multivariable negative binomial regression model with random effects for feedlot, year, month and week of arrival. Mean arrival weight of the cohort, gender, and arrival month and a three-way interaction (and corresponding two-way interactions) among arrival weight, gender and month were significantly (P<0.05) associated with the outcome. Results showed that as the mean arrival weight of the cohort increased, mortality and culling risk decreased, but effects of arrival weight were modified both by the gender of the cohort and the month of feedlot arrival. There was a seasonal pattern in combined mortality and culling risk for light and middle-weight male and female cohorts, with a significantly (P<0.05) higher risk for cattle arriving at the feedlot in spring and summer (March-September) than in cattle arriving during fall, and winter months (November-February). Our results quantified effects of covariate patterns that have been heretofore difficult to fully evaluate in smaller scale studies; in addition, they illustrated the importance of utilizing multivariable approaches when quantifying risk factors in heterogeneous feedlot populations. Estimated effects from our model could be useful for managing financial risks associated with adverse health events based on data that are routinely available. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive variables for mortality after acute ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Carter, Angela M; Catto, Andrew J; Mansfield, Michael W; Bamford, John M; Grant, Peter J

2007-06-01

Stroke is a major healthcare issue worldwide with an incidence comparable to coronary events, highlighting the importance of understanding risk factors for stroke and subsequent mortality. In the present study, we determined long-term (all-cause) mortality in 545 patients with ischemic stroke compared with a cohort of 330 age-matched healthy control subjects followed up for a median of 7.4 years. We assessed the effect of selected demographic, clinical, biochemical, hematologic, and hemostatic factors on mortality in patients with ischemic stroke. Stroke subtype was classified according to the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project criteria. Patients who died 30 days or less after the acute event (n=32) were excluded from analyses because this outcome is considered to be directly attributable to the acute event. Patients with ischemic stroke were at more than 3-fold increased risk of death compared with the age-matched control cohort. In multivariate analyses, age, stroke subtype, atrial fibrillation, and previous stroke/transient ischemic attack were predictive of mortality in patients with ischemic stroke. Albumin and creatinine and the hemostatic factors von Willebrand factor and beta-thromboglobulin were also predictive of mortality in patients with ischemic stroke after accounting for demographic and clinical variables. The results indicate that subjects with acute ischemic stroke are at increased risk of all-cause mortality. Advancing age, large-vessel stroke, atrial fibrillation, and previous stroke/transient ischemic attack predict mortality; and analysis of albumin, creatinine, von Willebrand factor, and beta-thromboglobulin will aid in the identification of patients at increased risk of death after stroke.

Traditional and Emerging Lifestyle Risk Behaviors and All-Cause Mortality in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: Evidence from a Large Population-Based Australian Cohort

PubMed Central

Ding, Ding; Rogers, Kris; van der Ploeg, Hidde; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Bauman, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Background Lifestyle risk behaviors are responsible for a large proportion of disease burden worldwide. Behavioral risk factors, such as smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity, tend to cluster within populations and may have synergistic effects on health. As evidence continues to accumulate on emerging lifestyle risk factors, such as prolonged sitting and unhealthy sleep patterns, incorporating these new risk factors will provide clinically relevant information on combinations of lifestyle risk factors. Methods and Findings Using data from a large Australian cohort of middle-aged and older adults, this is the first study to our knowledge to examine a lifestyle risk index incorporating sedentary behavior and sleep in relation to all-cause mortality. Baseline data (February 2006– April 2009) were linked to mortality registration data until June 15, 2014. Smoking, high alcohol intake, poor diet, physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and unhealthy (short/long) sleep duration were measured by questionnaires and summed into an index score. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used with the index score and each unique risk combination as exposure variables, adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics. During 6 y of follow-up of 231,048 participants for 1,409,591 person-years, 15,635 deaths were registered. Of all participants, 31.2%, 36.9%, 21.4%, and 10.6% reported 0, 1, 2, and 3+ risk factors, respectively. There was a strong relationship between the lifestyle risk index score and all-cause mortality. The index score had good predictive validity (c index = 0.763), and the partial population attributable risk was 31.3%. Out of all 96 possible risk combinations, the 30 most commonly occurring combinations accounted for more than 90% of the participants. Among those, combinations involving physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and/or long sleep duration and combinations involving smoking and high alcohol intake had the strongest associations with all-cause mortality. Limitations of the study include self-reported and under-specified measures, dichotomized risk scores, lack of long-term patterns of lifestyle behaviors, and lack of cause-specific mortality data. Conclusions Adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviors could reduce the risk for death from all causes. Specific combinations of lifestyle risk behaviors may be more harmful than others, suggesting synergistic relationships among risk factors. PMID:26645683

Traditional and Emerging Lifestyle Risk Behaviors and All-Cause Mortality in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: Evidence from a Large Population-Based Australian Cohort.

PubMed

Ding, Ding; Rogers, Kris; van der Ploeg, Hidde; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Bauman, Adrian E

2015-12-01

Lifestyle risk behaviors are responsible for a large proportion of disease burden worldwide. Behavioral risk factors, such as smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity, tend to cluster within populations and may have synergistic effects on health. As evidence continues to accumulate on emerging lifestyle risk factors, such as prolonged sitting and unhealthy sleep patterns, incorporating these new risk factors will provide clinically relevant information on combinations of lifestyle risk factors. Using data from a large Australian cohort of middle-aged and older adults, this is the first study to our knowledge to examine a lifestyle risk index incorporating sedentary behavior and sleep in relation to all-cause mortality. Baseline data (February 2006- April 2009) were linked to mortality registration data until June 15, 2014. Smoking, high alcohol intake, poor diet, physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and unhealthy (short/long) sleep duration were measured by questionnaires and summed into an index score. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used with the index score and each unique risk combination as exposure variables, adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics. During 6 y of follow-up of 231,048 participants for 1,409,591 person-years, 15,635 deaths were registered. Of all participants, 31.2%, 36.9%, 21.4%, and 10.6% reported 0, 1, 2, and 3+ risk factors, respectively. There was a strong relationship between the lifestyle risk index score and all-cause mortality. The index score had good predictive validity (c index = 0.763), and the partial population attributable risk was 31.3%. Out of all 96 possible risk combinations, the 30 most commonly occurring combinations accounted for more than 90% of the participants. Among those, combinations involving physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and/or long sleep duration and combinations involving smoking and high alcohol intake had the strongest associations with all-cause mortality. Limitations of the study include self-reported and under-specified measures, dichotomized risk scores, lack of long-term patterns of lifestyle behaviors, and lack of cause-specific mortality data. Adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviors could reduce the risk for death from all causes. Specific combinations of lifestyle risk behaviors may be more harmful than others, suggesting synergistic relationships among risk factors.

Depressive and anxious symptoms and 20-year mortality: Evidence from the Stirling County study.

PubMed

Colman, Ian; Kingsbury, Mila; Sucha, Ewa; Horton, Nicholas J; Murphy, Jane M; Gilman, Stephen E

2018-05-02

Depression and anxiety disorders are highly comorbid, and share significant symptom overlap. Whereas depression has been consistently associated with excess mortality, the association between anxiety and mortality is less clear. Our aim was to identify constellations of anxious and depressive symptoms and examine their associations with mortality. This study considers respondents from the 1970 (n = 1203) and 1992 (n = 1402) cohorts of the Stirling County study. Symptoms of depression and anxiety were assessed using structured at-home interviews. Vital status of participants through 2011 was determined using probabilistic linkages to the Canadian Mortality Database. Exploratory factor analysis yielded three correlated factors in each cohort. Items loading on each factor varied slightly between cohorts, but roughly corresponded to (1) depressive symptoms, (2) anxious symptoms, and (3) somatic symptoms. The depressive factor was associated with increased risk of mortality in both the 1970 (HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.62) and 1992 (HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.48) cohorts. Anxious symptoms were associated with a reduced risk of mortality in the 1992 sample (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.53, 0.90). Somatic symptoms were associated with a reduced risk of mortality in the 1970 sample (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.99), but an elevated risk of mortality in the 1992 sample (HR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.51). This study provides evidence that symptoms of depression and anxiety may have differential associations with early mortality. Somatic symptoms such as upset stomach and loss of appetite may be protective against mortality, perhaps through increased use of health care services. Conversely, symptoms such as weakness and cold sweats may be indicative of failing health. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Vascular robustness: The missing parameter in cardiovascular risk prediction.

PubMed

Kraushaar, Lutz E; Dressel, Alexander; Maßmann, Alexander

2018-03-01

Undetected high risk for premature death of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with low-to-moderate risk factor scores is an acknowledged obstacle to CVD prevention. The vasculature's functional robustness against risk factor derailment may serve as a novel discriminator of mortality risk under similar risk factor loads. To test this assumption, we hypothesized that the expected inverse robustness-mortality association is verifiable as a significant trend along the age spectrum of risk factor-challenged cohorts. This is a retrospective cohort study of 372 adults (mean age 56.1 years, range 21-92; 45% female) with a variety of CV risk factors. An arterial model (VascAssist 2, iSYMED GmbH, Germany) was used to derive global parameters of arterial function from non-invasively acquired pulse pressure waves. Participants were stratified by health status: apparently healthy (AH; n = 221); with hypertension and/or hypercholesterolemia (CC; n = 61); with history of CV event(s) (CVE; n = 90). Multivariate linear regression was used to derive a robustness score which was calibrated against the CVD mortality hazard rate of a sub-cohort of the LURIC study (n = 1369; mean age 59.1 years, range 20-75; 37% female). Robustness correlated linearly with calendar age in CC (F(1, 59) = 10.42; p  < 0.01) and CVE (F(1, 88) = 40.34; p  < 0.0001) but not in the AH strata, supporting the hypothesis of preferential elimination of less robust individuals along the aging trajectory under risk factor challenges. Vascular robustness may serve as a biomarker of vulnerability to CVD risk factor challenges, prognosticating otherwise undetectable elevated risk for premature CVD mortality.

Important Risk Factors of Mortality Among Children Aged 1-59 Months in Rural Areas of Shahroud, Iran: A Community-based Nested Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Chaman, Reza; Alami, Ali; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Naieni, Kourosh Holakouie; Mirmohammadkhani, Majid; Ahmadnezhad, Elham; Entezarmahdi, Rasool; Shati, Mohsen; Shariati, Mohammad

2012-12-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate potential risk factors of children mortality between 1-59 months of age. This nested case-control study was conducted among children born from June 1999 to March 2009 in rural areas of Shahroud, located in the central region of Iran using health care visit reports and follow-up data available in household health records. MORTALITY WAS SIGNIFICANTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BREASTFEEDING DURATION (OR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.81-0.93), total health care visits (OR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83-0.98) and low birth weight (LBW) (OR: 7.38, 95% CI: 1.37-39.67). In our study, a longer breastfeeding period and more frequent health care visits were two important protective factors, while LBW was an important risk factor for 1-59 month child mortality. It seems, that complex and multiple factors may be involved in mortality of under 5-year-old children, so combined efforts would be necessary to improve child health indicators.

Factors other than risks in the workplace as determinants of socioeconomic differences in health in Italy.

PubMed

Mamo, Carlo; Marinacci, Chiara; Demaria, Moreno; Mirabelli, Dario; Costa, Giuseppe

2005-01-01

To evaluate differences in mortality by social class and to determine the impacts of socioeconomic factors on health inequalities in Italy, mortality data from 1981-2001 were analyzed as a function of social class in Turin, controlling for occupational risks, housing conditions, and education. For general and cause-specific mortality, the weight of each socioeconomic indicator was evaluated on population-attributable fraction to social class. Among men, mortality risk was significantly higher in unskilled blue-collar workers (RR = 1.45). Among women, the differences by social class were slighter. Education and economic status mostly explain the mortality differences by social class in men, while economic status showed the highest contribution in women.

Six-fold difference in the stomach cancer mortality rate between northern and southern Iran.

PubMed

Zendehdel, Kazem; Marzban, Maryam; Nahvijou, Azin; Jafari, Nahid

2012-12-01

Stomach cancer is the most common cancer in Iran. A multi-ethnic population and wide variation in the environmental risk factors may lead to variations in cancer risk within this country. We have designed an ecological study and evaluated geographical variation regarding mortality from stomach cancer and its established risk factors in Iran.  We used the Iranian National Causes of Death Registry and estimated the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of stomach cancer in 29 Iranian provinces, stratified by sex and area of residence (rural/urban).  The average ASMR of stomach cancer among Iranian males was 15 per 100,000 and for females it was 8.1 per 100,000. The highest and lowest mortality rates were observed in Kurdistan with an ASMR of 29.1 per 100,000 in northwestern Iran and Hormozgan that had an ASMR of 5.0 per 100,000 in southern Iran. Males had approximately a two-fold higher ASMR compared to females, as did rural residents when compared with urban residents. The prevalence of H. pylori infection was about 90% in the province of Ardabil (a high-risk area) and 27% in the province of Sistan-Baluchistan (a low-risk area).  The wide geographical variation and high mortality rate of stomach cancer in Iran is likely due to differences in the exposure to the environmental risk factors among people living in the high- and low-risk areas, particularly H. pylori infection, a well-established risk factor of stomach cancer.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and classification of risk of cardiovascular disease mortality.

PubMed

Gupta, Sachin; Rohatgi, Anand; Ayers, Colby R; Willis, Benjamin L; Haskell, William L; Khera, Amit; Drazner, Mark H; de Lemos, James A; Berry, Jarett D

2011-04-05

Cardiorespiratory fitness (fitness) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, the extent to which fitness improves risk classification when added to traditional risk factors is unclear. Fitness was measured by the Balke protocol in 66 371 subjects without prior CVD enrolled in the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study between 1970 and 2006; follow-up was extended through 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of CVD mortality with a traditional risk factor model (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, and smoking) with and without the addition of fitness. The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were calculated at 10 and 25 years. Ten-year risk estimates for CVD mortality were categorized as <1%, 1% to <5%, and ≥5%, and 25-year risk estimates were categorized as <8%, 8% to 30%, and ≥30%. During a median follow-up period of 16 years, there were 1621 CVD deaths. The addition of fitness to the traditional risk factor model resulted in reclassification of 10.7% of the men, with significant net reclassification improvement at both 10 years (net reclassification improvement=0.121) and 25 years (net reclassification improvement=0.041) (P<0.001 for both). The integrated discrimination improvement was 0.010 at 10 years (P<0.001), and the relative integrated discrimination improvement was 29%. Similar findings were observed for women at 25 years. A single measurement of fitness significantly improves classification of both short-term (10-year) and long-term (25-year) risk for CVD mortality when added to traditional risk factors.

Explaining trends in coronary heart disease mortality in different socioeconomic groups in Denmark 1991-2007 using the IMPACTSEC model.

PubMed

Joensen, Albert Marni; Joergensen, Torben; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Johansen, Martin Berg; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Bandosz, Piotr; Hallas, Jesper; Prescott, Eva Irene Bossano; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2018-01-01

To quantify the contribution of changes in different risk factors population levels and treatment uptake on the decline in CHD mortality in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 in different socioeconomic groups. We used IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model using data from different population registries. All adults aged 25-84 years living in Denmark in 1991 and 2007. Deaths prevented or postponed (DPP). There were approximately 11,000 fewer CHD deaths in Denmark in 2007 than would be expected if the 1991 mortality rates had persisted. Higher mortality rates were observed in the lowest socioeconomic quintile. The highest absolute reduction in CHD mortality was seen in this group but the highest relative reduction was in the most affluent socioeconomic quintile. Overall, the IMPACTSEC model explained nearly two thirds of the decline in. Improved treatments accounted for approximately 25% with the least relative mortality reduction in the most deprived quintile. Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 40% of the mortality decrease with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. The 36% gap in explaining all DPPs may reflect inaccurate data or risk factors not quantified in the current model. According to the IMPACTSEC model, the largest contribution to the CHD mortality decline in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 was from improvements in risk factors, with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. However, we found a clear socioeconomic trend for the treatment contribution favouring the most affluent groups.

Burn-center quality improvement: are burn outcomes dependent on admitting facilities and is there a volume-outcome "sweet-spot"?

PubMed

Hranjec, Tjasa; Turrentine, Florence E; Stukenborg, George; Young, Jeffrey S; Sawyer, Robert G; Calland, James F

2012-05-01

Risk factors of mortality in burn patients such as inhalation injury, patient age, and percent of total body surface area (%TBSA) burned have been identified in previous publications. However, little is known about the variability of mortality outcomes between burn centers and whether the admitting facilities or facility volumes can be recognized as predictors of mortality. De-identified data from 87,665 acute burn observations obtained from the National Burn Repository between 2003 and 2007 were used to estimate a multivariable logistic regression model that could predict patient mortality with reference to the admitting burn facility/facility volume, adjusted for differences in age, inhalation injury, %TBSA burned, and an additional factor, percent full thickness burn (%FTB). As previously reported, all three covariates (%TBSA burned, inhalation injury, and age) were found to be highly statistically significant risk factors of mortality in burn patients (P value < 0.0001). The additional variable, %FTB, was also found to be a statistically significant determinant, although it did not greatly improve the multivariable model. The treatment/admitting facility was found to be an independent mortality predictor, with certain hospitals having increased odds of death and others showing a protective effect (decreased odds ratio). Hospitals with high burn volumes had the highest risk of mortality. Mortality outcomes of patients with similar risk factors (%TBSA burned, inhalation injury, age, and %FTB) are significantly affected by the treating facility and their admission volumes.

Risk Factors for the Mortality of Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia in Non-HIV Patients Who Required Mechanical Ventilation: A Retrospective Case Series Study.

PubMed

Kotani, Toru; Katayama, Shinshu; Miyazaki, Yuya; Fukuda, Satoshi; Sato, Yoko; Ohsugi, Koichi

2017-01-01

The risk factors for the mortality rate of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) who required mechanical ventilation (MV) remained unknown. A retrospective chart review was performed of all PCP patients admitted to our intensive care unit and treated for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure to assess the risk factors for the high mortality. Twenty patients without human immunodeficiency virus infection required mechanical ventilation; 19 received noninvasive ventilation; and 11 were intubated. PEEP was incrementally increased and titrated to maintain FIO 2 as low as possible. No mandatory ventilation was used. Sixteen patients (80%) survived. Pneumothorax developed in one patient with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Median PEEP level in the first 5 days was 10.0 cmH 2 O and not associated with death. Multivariate analysis showed the association of incidence of interstitial lung disease and increase in serum KL-6 with 90-day mortality. We found MV strategies to prevent pneumothorax including liberal use of noninvasive ventilation, and PEEP titration and disuse of mandatory ventilation may improve mortality in this setting. Underlying disease of interstitial lung disease was a risk factor and KL-6 may be a useful predictor associated with mortality in patients with RA. These findings will need to be validated in larger studies.

Risk factors influencing morbidity and mortality in perforated peptic ulcer disease

PubMed Central

Taş, İlhan; Ülger, Burak Veli; Önder, Akın; Kapan, Murat; Bozdağ, Zübeyir

2015-01-01

Objective: Peptic ulcer perforation continues to be a major surgical problem. In this study, risk factors that influence morbidity and mortality in perforated peptic ulcer disease were examined. Material and Methods: Files of 148 patients who were included in the study due to peptic ulcer perforation between January 2006 and December 2010 were retrospectively analyzed. Data regarding age, gender, complaints, time elapsed between onset of symptoms and hospital admission, physical examination findings, co-morbid diseases, laboratory and imaging findings, length of hospital stay, morbidity and mortality were recorded. Results: The study group included 129 (87.2%) male and 19 (12.8%) female patients. The mean age was 51.7±20 (15-88) years. Forty five patients (30.4%) had at least one co-morbid disease. In the postoperative period, 30 patients (20.3%) had complications. The most common complication was wound infection. Mortality was observed in 27 patients (18.2%). The most common cause of mortality was sepsis. Multivariate analysis revealed age over 60 years, presence of co-morbidities and Mannheim peritonitis index as independent risk factors for morbidity. Age over 60 years, time to admission and Mannheim peritonitis index were detected as independent risk factors for mortality. Conclusion: Early diagnosis and proper treatment are important in patients presenting with peptic ulcer perforation. PMID:25931940

Risk factors influencing morbidity and mortality in perforated peptic ulcer disease.

PubMed

Taş, İlhan; Ülger, Burak Veli; Önder, Akın; Kapan, Murat; Bozdağ, Zübeyir

2015-01-01

Peptic ulcer perforation continues to be a major surgical problem. In this study, risk factors that influence morbidity and mortality in perforated peptic ulcer disease were examined. Files of 148 patients who were included in the study due to peptic ulcer perforation between January 2006 and December 2010 were retrospectively analyzed. Data regarding age, gender, complaints, time elapsed between onset of symptoms and hospital admission, physical examination findings, co-morbid diseases, laboratory and imaging findings, length of hospital stay, morbidity and mortality were recorded. The study group included 129 (87.2%) male and 19 (12.8%) female patients. The mean age was 51.7±20 (15-88) years. Forty five patients (30.4%) had at least one co-morbid disease. In the postoperative period, 30 patients (20.3%) had complications. The most common complication was wound infection. Mortality was observed in 27 patients (18.2%). The most common cause of mortality was sepsis. Multivariate analysis revealed age over 60 years, presence of co-morbidities and Mannheim peritonitis index as independent risk factors for morbidity. Age over 60 years, time to admission and Mannheim peritonitis index were detected as independent risk factors for mortality. Early diagnosis and proper treatment are important in patients presenting with peptic ulcer perforation.

Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Maïga, Abdoulaye; Hounton, Sennen; Amouzou, Agbessi; Akinyemi, Akanni; Shiferaw, Solomon; Baya, Banza; Bahan, Dalomi; Barros, Aluisio J D; Walker, Neff; Friedman, Howard

2015-01-01

In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. The last three Demographic and Health Surveys - conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 - enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR), and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010), despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving the demand satisfied for modern contraception may result in a reduction in the percentage of women experiencing high-risk births and may also reduce child mortality.

Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso

PubMed Central

Maïga, Abdoulaye; Hounton, Sennen; Amouzou, Agbessi; Akinyemi, Akanni; Shiferaw, Solomon; Baya, Banza; Bahan, Dalomi; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Walker, Neff; Friedman, Howard

2015-01-01

Background In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. Objective This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. Design The last three Demographic and Health Surveys – conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 – enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR), and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Results Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010), despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Conclusions Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving the demand satisfied for modern contraception may result in a reduction in the percentage of women experiencing high-risk births and may also reduce child mortality. PMID:26562142

Mortality risk in a nationwide cohort of individuals with tic disorders and with tourette syndrome.

PubMed

Meier, Sandra M; Dalsgaard, Søren; Mortensen, Preben B; Leckman, James F; Plessen, Kerstin J

2017-04-01

Few studies have investigated mortality risk in individuals with tic disorders. We thus measured the risk of premature death in individuals with tic disorders and with Tourette syndrome in a prospective cohort study with 80 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated mortality rate ratios and adjusted for calendar year, age, sex, urbanicity, maternal and paternal age, and psychiatric disorders to compare individuals with and without tic disorders. The risk of premature death was higher among individuals with tic disorders (mortality rate ratio, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.49-2.66) and with Tourette syndrome (mortality rate ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.11-2.28) compared with controls. After the exclusion of individuals with comorbid attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and substance abuse, tic disorder remained associated with increased mortality risk (mortality rate ratio, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.57-3.23), as did also Tourette Syndrome (mortality rate ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.11-2.75). These results are of clinical significance for clinicians and advocacy organizations. Several factors may contribute to this increased risk of premature death, and more research mapping out these factors is needed. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Geographical Detector-Based Risk Assessment of the Under-Five Mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China

PubMed Central

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

2011-01-01

On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers. PMID:21738660

Geographical detector-based risk assessment of the under-five mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China.

PubMed

Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

2011-01-01

On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers.

Association between the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and mortality in a community sample: An artifact of the somatic complaints factor?1

PubMed Central

Pettit, Jeremy W.; Lewinsohn, Peter M.; Seeley, John R.; Roberts, Robert E.; Hibbard, Judith H.; Hurtado, Arnold V.

2009-01-01

Most previous studies of the depression-mortality association have not examined distinct depressive symptom clusters. This ex post facto study examined which aspects of depression may account for its association with mortality. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) was administered to 3,867 community dwelling adults. Cox proportional hazards procedures estimated the risk of mortality as a function of depression status and each of 4 CES-D factor scores. Depressed participants (CES-D ≥ 16) had a 1.23-fold higher risk of mortality (95% CI 1.03-1.49), adjusting for sociodemographics. Somatic Complaints (SC) was the only factor to predict mortality (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03-1.38). After excluding SC, CES-D scores no longer predicted mortality (HR .98, 95% CI .79-1.21). The association between CES-D depressive symptoms and mortality appears to be a function of the SC factor. The association between non-somatic depressive symptoms and mortality may not be as robust as past findings suggest. PMID:19936326

Association between the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and mortality in a community sample: An artifact of the somatic complaints factor?

PubMed

Pettit, Jeremy W; Lewinsohn, Peter M; Seeley, John R; Roberts, Robert E; Hibbard, Judith H; Hurtado, Arnold V

2008-05-01

Most previous studies of the depression-mortality association have not examined distinct depressive symptom clusters. This ex post facto study examined which aspects of depression may account for its association with mortality. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) was administered to 3,867 community dwelling adults. Cox proportional hazards procedures estimated the risk of mortality as a function of depression status and each of 4 CES-D factor scores. Depressed participants (CES-D ≥ 16) had a 1.23-fold higher risk of mortality (95% CI 1.03-1.49), adjusting for sociodemographics. Somatic Complaints (SC) was the only factor to predict mortality (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03-1.38). After excluding SC, CES-D scores no longer predicted mortality (HR .98, 95% CI .79-1.21). The association between CES-D depressive symptoms and mortality appears to be a function of the SC factor. The association between non-somatic depressive symptoms and mortality may not be as robust as past findings suggest.

Reasons and risk factors for beef calf and youngstock on-farm mortality in extensive cow-calf herds.

PubMed

Mõtus, K; Viltrop, A; Emanuelson, U

2017-12-26

Raising calves and youngstock is an essential part of beef production. High on-farm mortality (unassisted death and euthanasia) is a consequence of poor animal health and welfare, and is economically unfavourable. The present study aimed to identify the reasons and risk factors for beef calf and youngstock on-farm mortality, using registry data for the years 2013 to 2015. Cox regression models were applied for the data of four age groups: calves up to 30 days (n=21 075), calves 1 to 5 months (n=21 116), youngstock 6 to 19 months (n=22 637) and youngstock ⩾20 months of age (n=9582). We found that dystocia, small birth weight and older parity of the mother increased the mortality hazard in calves up to 30 days of age. A summer birth was a common protective factor against mortality for calves up to 30 days and calves 1 to 5 months of age, compared with birth in other seasons. Among calves 1 to 5 months old, being the offspring of a first-parity cow was associated with significantly higher risk of death compared with calves who were the offspring of third- or higher-parity cows. A high herd-level stillbirth rate was associated with higher mortality hazard. The most commonly reported reasons for calf mortality were digestive disorders and respiratory disease. According to the models of youngstock from 6 months of age, male sex was a risk factor for mortality. Cattle having more than 10% dairy breed experienced a higher mortality risk in the ⩾20 months age group. No significant differences were found across regions, herd size or different breeds in any of the calf or youngstock groups. Metabolic and digestive disorders, as well as traumas and accidents, were the most common causes of mortality in beef youngstock older than 6 months. We can conclude that in young calves, animal-level factors associated with calving had a high impact on mortality. Further, timing calving for the warmer spring months would benefit calf survivability. Further studies including complementary information about farm factors adapted across the whole youngstock period is highly needed to provide sound recommendations in reducing on-farm mortality.

Multidrug Resistance Acinetobacter Bacteremia Secondary to Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia: Risk Factors and Outcome.

PubMed

Brotfain, Evgeni; Borer, Abraham; Koyfman, Leonid; Saidel-Odes, Lisa; Frenkel, Amit; Gruenbaum, Shaun E; Rosenzweig, Vsevolod; Zlotnik, Alexander; Klein, Moti

2017-10-01

Acinetobacter baumannii is a multidrug resistant (MDR), gram-negative bacterium commonly implicated in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in critically ill patients. Patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) with VAP often subsequently develop A baumannii bacteremia, which may significantly worsen outcomes. In this study, we retrospectively reviewed the clinical and laboratory records of 129 ICU patients spanning 6 years with MDR A baumannii VAP; 46 (35%) of these patients had concomitant MDR A baumannii bacteremia. The ICU mortality rate was higher in patients with VAP having A baumannii bacteremia compared to nonbacteremic patients (32.4% vs 9.6% respectively, P < .005). Age >65 years, an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score higher than 20, a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score higher than 7 on the day of bacteremia, and the presence of comorbid disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] and chronic renal failure) were found to be independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in this population. Multidrug resistant A baumannii was not an independent risk factor for mortality. Although the presence of comorbid diseases (COPD and chronic renal failure) and severity of disease (APACHE > 20 and SOFA >7) were found to be independent risk factors for ICU mortality, MDR A baumannii bacteremia was not an independent risk factor for mortality in our critically ill population.

Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Ikeda, Nayu; Inoue, Manami; Iso, Hiroyasu; Ikeda, Shunya; Satoh, Toshihiko; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Imano, Hironori; Saito, Eiko; Katanoda, Kota; Sobue, Tomotaka; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Naghavi, Mohsen; Ezzati, Majid; Shibuya, Kenji

2012-01-01

Background The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan. Methods and Findings We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution. Conclusions Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22291576

Risk factors that predict mortality in patients with blunt chest wall trauma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Battle, Ceri E; Hutchings, Hayley; Evans, Phillip A

2012-01-01

The risk factors for mortality following blunt chest wall trauma have neither been well established or summarised. To summarise the risk factors for mortality in blunt chest wall trauma patients based on available evidence in the literature. A systematic review of English and non-English articles using MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from their introduction until May 2010. Additional studies were identified by hand-searching bibliographies and contacting relevant clinical experts. Grey literature was sought by searching abstracts from all Emergency Medicine conferences. Broad search terms and inclusion criteria were used to reduce the number of missed studies. A two step study selection process was used. All published and unpublished observational studies were included if they investigated estimates of association between a risk factor and mortality for blunt chest wall trauma patients. A two step data extraction process using pre-defined data fields, including study quality indicators. Each study was appraised using a previously designed quality assessment tool and the STROBE checklist. Where sufficient data were available, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Mantel-Haenszel method for the risk factors investigated. The I(2) statistic was calculated for combined studies in order to assess heterogeneity. Age, number of rib fractures, presence of pre-existing disease and pneumonia were found to be related to mortality in 29 identified studies. Combined odds ratio of 1.98 (1.86-2.11, 95% CI), 2.02 (1.89-2.15, 95% CI), 2.43 (1.03-5.72, 95% CI) and 5.24 (3.51-7.82) for mortality were calculated for blunt chest wall trauma patients aged 65 years or more, with three or more rib fractures, pre-existing conditions and pneumonia respectively. The risk factors for mortality in patients sustaining blunt chest wall trauma were a patient age of 65 years or more, three or more rib fractures and the presence of pre-existing disease especially cardiopulmonary disease. The development of pneumonia post injury was also a significant risk factor for mortality. As a result of the variable quality in the studies, the results of the selected studies should be interpreted with caution. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IQ in late adolescence/early adulthood, risk factors in middle age, and later cancer mortality in men: the Vietnam Experience Study.

PubMed

Batty, G David; Mortensen, Laust H; Gale, Catharine R; Shipley, Martin J; Roberts, Beverly A; Deary, Ian J

2009-10-01

(i) examine the relation, if any, of pre-morbid IQ scores at 20 years of age with the risk of later cancer mortality; and (ii) explore the role, if any, of potential mediating factors (e.g. smoking, obesity), assessed in middle age, in explaining the IQ-cancer relation. Cohort study of 14, 491 male, Vietnam-era, former US army personnel with IQ test scores at around 20 years of age (1965-71), who participated in a risk factor survey at around age 38 years of age (1985-6), who were then followed up for mortality experience for 15 years. There were 176 cancer deaths during mortality surveillance. We found an inverse association of IQ with later mortality from all cancers combined (age-adjusted HR(per one SD decrease in IQ); 95% confidence interval: 1.27; 1.10, 1.46) and smoking-related malignancies (1.37; 1.14, 1.64). There was some attenuation following control for mediating variables, particularly smoking and income, but the gradients generally held at conventional levels of statistical significance. Higher scores on pre-morbid IQ tests are associated with lower risk of later cancer morality. The strength of the relation was partially mediated by established risk factors.

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007.

PubMed

Bruthans, Jan; Cífková, Renata; Lánská, Věra; O'Flaherty, Martin; Critchley, Julia A; Holub, Jiří; Janský, Petr; Zvárová, Jana; Capewell, Simon

2014-07-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined substantially in the Czech Republic over the last two decades. The purpose of this study was to determine what proportion of this CHD mortality decline could be associated with temporal trends in major CHD risk factors and what proportion with advances in medical and surgical treatments. The validated IMPACT mortality model was used to combine and analyse data on uptake and effectiveness of CHD management and risk factor trends in the Czech Republic in adults aged 25-74 years between 1985 and 2007. The main sources were official statistics, national quality of care registries, published trials and meta-analyses, and the Czech MONICA and Czech post-MONICA studies. Between 1985 and 2007, age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Czech Republic decreased by 66.2% in men and 65.4% in women in the age group 25-74 years, representing 12,080 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. Changes in CHD risk factors explained approximately 52% of the total mortality decrease, and improvements in medical treatments approximately 43%. Increases in body mass index and in diabetes prevalence had a negative impact, increasing CHD mortality by approximately 1% and 5%, respectively. More than half of the very substantial fall in CHD mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007 was attributable to reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors. Improvement in treatments accounted for approximately 43% of the total mortality decrease. These findings emphasize the value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatment. © The European Society of Cardiology 2012.

Ethnicity and mortality from systemic lupus erythematosus in the US.

PubMed

Krishnan, E; Hubert, H B

2006-11-01

To study ethnic differences in mortality from systemic lupus erythematosus (lupus) in two large, population-based datasets. We analysed the national death data (1979-98) from the National Center for Health Statistics (Hyattsville, Maryland, USA) and hospitalisation data (1993-2002) from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), the largest hospitalisation database in the US. The overall, unadjusted, lupus mortality in the National Center for Health Statistics data was 4.6 per million, whereas the proportion of in-hospital mortality from the NIS was 2.9%. African-Americans had disproportionately higher mortality risk than Caucasians (all-cause mortality relative risk adjusted for age = 1.24 (women), 1.36 (men); lupus mortality relative risk = 3.91 (women), 2.40 (men)). Excess risk was found among in-hospital deaths (odds ratio adjusted for age = 1.4 (women), 1.3 (men)). Lupus death rates increased overall from 1979 to 98 (p<0.001). The proportional increase was greatest among African-Americans. Among Caucasian men, death rates declined significantly (p<0.001), but rates did not change substantially for African-American men. The African-American:Caucasian mortality ratio rose with time among men, but there was little change among women. In analyses of the NIS data adjusted for age, the in-hospital mortality risk decreased with time among Caucasian women (p<0.001). African-Americans with lupus have 2-3-fold higher lupus mortality risk than Caucasians. The magnitude of the risk disparity is disproportionately higher than the disparity in all-cause mortality. A lupus-specific biological factor, as opposed to socioeconomic and access-to-care factors, may be responsible for this phenomenon.

Sense of life worth living (ikigai) and mortality in Japan: Ohsaki Study.

PubMed

Sone, Toshimasa; Nakaya, Naoki; Ohmori, Kaori; Shimazu, Taichi; Higashiguchi, Mizuka; Kakizaki, Masako; Kikuchi, Nobutaka; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Tsuji, Ichiro

2008-07-01

To investigate the association between the sense of "life worth living (ikigai)" and the cause-specific mortality risk. The psychological factors play important roles in morbidity and mortality risks. However, the association between the negative psychological factors and the risk of mortality is inconclusive. The Ohsaki Study, a prospective cohort study, was initiated on 43,391 Japanese adults. To assess if the subjects found a sense of ikigai, they were asked the question, "Do you have ikigai in your life?" We used Cox regression analysis to calculate the hazard ratio of the all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to the sense of ikigai categories. Over 7 years' follow-up, 3048 of the subjects died. The risk of all-cause mortality was significantly higher among the subjects who did not find a sense of ikigai as compared with that in the subjects who found a sense of ikigai; the multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.5 (1.3-1.7). As for the cause-specific mortality, subjects who did not find a sense of ikigai were significantly associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (1.6; 1.3-2.0) and external cause mortality (1.9; 1.1-3.3), but not of the cancer mortality (1.3; 1.0-1.6). In this prospective cohort study, subjects who did not find a sense of ikigai were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. The increase in mortality risk was attributable to cardiovascular disease and external causes, but not cancer.

Plasma and blood viscosity in the prediction of cardiovascular disease and mortality in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort Study.

PubMed

Peters, Sanne Ae; Woodward, Mark; Rumley, Ann; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh D; Lowe, Gordon DO

2017-01-01

Background There is increasing evidence that blood viscosity and its major determinants (haematocrit and plasma viscosity) are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality; however, their predictive value for CVD and mortality is not clear. Methods We prospectively assessed the added predictive value of plasma viscosity and whole blood viscosity and haematocrit in 3386 men and women aged 30-74 years participating in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort study. Results Over a median follow-up of 17 years, 819 CVD events and 778 deaths were recorded. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for a 1 SD increase in plasma viscosity, adjusted for major CVD risk factors, were 1.12 (1.04-1.20) for CVD and 1.20 (1.12-1.29) for mortality. These remained significant after further adjustment for plasma fibrinogen: 1.09 (1.01-1.18) and 1.13 (1.04-1.22). The corresponding results for blood viscosity were 0.99 (0.90, 1.09) for CVD, and 1.11 (1.01, 1.22) for total mortality after adjustment for major CVD risk factors; and 0.97 (0.88, 1.08) and 1.06 (0.96, 1.18) after further adjustment for fibrinogen. Haematocrit showed similar associations to blood viscosity. When added to classical CVD risk factors, plasma viscosity improved the discrimination of CVD and mortality by 2.4% (0.7-4.4%) and 4.1% (2.0-6.5%). Conclusions Although plasma and blood viscosity may have a role in the pathogenesis of CVD and mortality, much of their association with CVD and mortality is due to the mutual effects of major CVD risk factors. However, plasma viscosity adds to the discrimination of CVD and mortality and might be considered for inclusion in multivariable risk scores.

An exploration of mortality risk factors in non-severe pneumonia in children using clinical data from Kenya.

PubMed

Tuti, Timothy; Agweyu, Ambrose; Mwaniki, Paul; Peek, Niels; English, Mike

2017-11-13

Childhood pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years old. Recent updates to World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines recommend outpatient care for a population of children previously classified as high risk. This revision has been challenged by policymakers in Africa, where mortality related to pneumonia is higher than in other regions and often complicated by comorbidities. This study aimed to identify factors that best discriminate inpatient mortality risk in non-severe pneumonia and explore whether these factors offer any added benefit over the current criteria used to identify children with pneumonia requiring inpatient care. We undertook a retrospective cohort study of children aged 2-59 months admitted with a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia at 14 public hospitals in Kenya between February 2014 and February 2016. Using machine learning techniques, we analysed whether clinical characteristics and common comorbidities increased the risk of inpatient mortality for non-severe pneumonia. The topmost risk factors were subjected to decision curve analysis to explore if using them as admission criteria had any net benefit above the current criteria. Out of 16,162 children admitted with pneumonia during the study period, 10,687 were eligible for subsequent analysis. Inpatient mortality within this non-severe group was 252/10,687 (2.36%). Models demonstrated moderately good performance; the partial least squares discriminant analysis model had higher sensitivity for predicting mortality in comparison to logistic regression. Elevated respiratory rate (≥70 bpm), age 2-11 months and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) < -3SD were highly discriminative of mortality. These factors ranked consistently across the different models. For a risk threshold probability of 7-14%, there is a net benefit to admitting the patient sub-populations with these features as additional criteria alongside those currently used to classify severe pneumonia. Of the population studied, 70.54% met at least one of these criteria. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the overall results were not significantly affected by variations in pneumonia severity classification criteria. Children with non-severe pneumonia aged 2-11 months or with respiratory rate ≥ 70 bpm or very low WAZ experience risks of inpatient mortality comparable to severe pneumonia. Inpatient care is warranted in these high-risk groups of children.

The association between A Body Shape Index and mortality: Results from an Australian cohort.

PubMed

Grant, Janet F; Chittleborough, Catherine R; Shi, Zumin; Taylor, Anne W

2017-01-01

It is well recognised that obesity increases the risk of premature death. A Body Shape Index (ABSI) is a formula that uses waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and height to predict risk of premature mortality, where a high score (Quartile 4) indicates that a person's WC is more than expected given their height and weight. Our study examines the association between ABSI quartiles and all-cause-, cardiovascular- and cancer-related mortality, and primary cause of death. Self-reported demographic and biomedically measured health-related risk factor and weight data was from the baseline stage of the North West Adelaide Health Study (1999-2003, n = 4056), a longitudinal cohort of Australian adults. Death-related information was obtained from the National Death Index. Primary cause of death across ABSI quartiles was examined. The association between mortality and ABSI (quartile and continuous scores) was investigated using a Cox proportional hazards survival model and adjusting for socioeconomic, and self-reported and biomedical risk factors. The proportion of all three types of mortality steadily increased from ABSI Quartile 1 through to Quartile 4. After adjusting for demographic and health-related risk factors, the risk of all-cause mortality was higher for people in ABSI Quartile 4 (HR 2.64, 95% CI 01.56-4.47), and ABSI Quartile 3 (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.15-3.33), with a moderate association for the continuous ABSI score (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.18-1.48). ABSI is therefore positively associated with mortality in Australian adults. Different combined measures of obesity such as the ABSI are useful in examining mortality risk.

Enhancing the Value of Population-Based Risk Scores for Institutional-Level Use.

PubMed

Raza, Sajjad; Sabik, Joseph F; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Idrees, Jay J; Trezzi, Matteo; Riaz, Haris; Javadikasgari, Hoda; Nowicki, Edward R; Svensson, Lars G; Blackstone, Eugene H

2016-07-01

We hypothesized that factors associated with an institution's residual risk unaccounted for by population-based models may be identifiable and used to enhance the value of population-based risk scores for quality improvement. From January 2000 to January 2010, 4,971 patients underwent aortic valve replacement (AVR), either isolated (n = 2,660) or with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (AVR+CABG; n = 2,311). Operative mortality and major morbidity and mortality predicted by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models were compared with observed values. After adjusting for patients' STS score, additional and refined risk factors were sought to explain residual risk. Differences between STS model coefficients (risk-factor strength) and those specific to our institution were calculated. Observed operative mortality was less than predicted for AVR (1.6% [42 of 2,660] vs 2.8%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (2.6% [59 of 2,311] vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001). Observed major morbidity and mortality was also lower than predicted for isolated AVR (14.6% [389 of 2,660] vs 17.5%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (20.0% [462 of 2,311] vs 25.8%, p < 0.0001). Shorter height, higher bilirubin, and lower albumin were identified as additional institution-specific risk factors, and body surface area, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate, blood urea nitrogen, and heart failure across all levels of functional class were identified as refined risk-factor variables associated with residual risk. In many instances, risk-factor strength differed substantially from that of STS models. Scores derived from population-based models can be enhanced for institutional level use by adjusting for institution-specific additional and refined risk factors. Identifying these and measuring differences in institution-specific versus population-based risk-factor strength can identify areas to target for quality improvement initiatives. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

PubMed Central

Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

Risk factors for infant mortality in rural and urban Nigeria: evidence from the national household survey.

PubMed

Adewuyi, Emmanuel Olorunleke; Zhao, Yun; Lamichhane, Reeta

2017-07-01

This study investigates the rural-urban differences in infant mortality rates (IMRs) and the associated risk factors in Nigeria. The dataset from the 2013 Nigeria demographic and health survey (NDHS), disaggregated by rural-urban residence, was analyzed using complex samples statistics. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was computed to explore the adjusted relationship and identify risk factors for infant mortality. In rural and urban Nigeria, IMRs were 70 and 49 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. Risk factors in rural residence were past maternal marital union (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.625, p = 0.020), small birth size (AOR: 1.550, p < 0.001), birth interval <24 months (AOR: 2.057, p < 0.001), residence in North-East (AOR: 1.346, p = 0.038) and North-West (AOR: 1.653, p < 0.001) regions, and cesarean delivery (AOR: 2.922, p = 0.001). Risk factors in urban residence were poor wealth index (AOR: 2.292, p < 0.001), small birth size (AOR: 2.276, p < 0.001), male gender (AOR: 1.416, p = 0.022), birth interval <24 months (AOR: 1.605, p = 0.002), maternal obesity (AOR: 1.641, p = 0.008), and cesarean delivery (AOR: 1.947, p = 0.032). Infants in rural residence had higher rates of mortality than their urban counterparts and disparities in risk factors exist between the residences.

Factors affecting mortality in older trauma patients-A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sammy, Ian; Lecky, Fiona; Sutton, Anthea; Leaviss, Joanna; O'Cathain, Alicia

2016-06-01

Major trauma in older people is a significant health burden in the developed world. The aging of the population has resulted in larger numbers of older patients suffering serious injury. Older trauma patients are at greater risk of death from major trauma, but the reasons for this are less well understood. The aim of this review was to identify the factors affecting mortality in older patients suffering major injury. A systematic review of Medline, Cinhal and the Cochrane database, supplemented by a manual search of relevant papers was undertaken, with meta-analysis. Multi-centre cohort studies of existing trauma registries that reported risk-adjusted mortality (adjusted odds ratios, AOR) in their outcomes and which analysed patients aged 65 and older as a separate cohort were included in the review. 3609 papers were identified from the electronic databases, and 28 from manual searches. Of these, 15 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Demographic variables (age and gender), pre-existing conditions (comorbidities and medication), and injury-related factors (injury severity, pattern and mechanism) were found to affect mortality. The 'oldest old', aged 75 and older, had higher mortality rates than younger patients, aged 65-74 years. Older men had a significantly higher mortality rate than women (cumulative odds ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.37-1.66). Three papers reported a higher risk of death in patients with pre-existing conditions. Two studies reported increased mortality in patients on warfarin (cumulative odds ratio 1.32, 95% CI 1.05-1.66). Higher mortality was seen in patients with lower Glasgow coma scores and systolic blood pressures. Mortality increased with increased injury severity and number of injuries sustained. Low level falls were associated with higher mortality than motor vehicle collisions (cumulative odds ratio 2.88, 95% CI 1.26-6.60). Multiple factors contribute to mortality risk in older trauma patients. The relation between these factors and mortality is complex, and a fuller understanding of the contribution of each factor is needed to develop a better predictive model for trauma outcomes in older people. More research is required to identify patient and process factors affecting mortality in older patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Thirty-Day Morbidity and Mortality in Extradural Lumbar Spine Tumor Resection.

PubMed

Sarkiss, Christopher A; Hersh, Eliza H; Ladner, Travis R; Lee, Nathan; Kothari, Parth; Lakomkin, Nikita; Caridi, John M

2018-06-01

Epidural tumors in the lumbar spine represent a unique cohort of lesions with individual risks and challenges to resection. Knowledge of modifiable risk factors are important in minimizing postoperative complications. To determine the risk factors for 30-day morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing extradural lumbar tumor resection. A retrospective study of prospectively collected data using the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Program database was performed. Adults who underwent laminectomy for excision of lumbar spine tumors between 2011 and 2014 were included in the study. Demographics and medical comorbidities were collected, along with morbidities and mortalities within 30 postoperative days. A multivariate binary logistic analysis of these clinical variables was performed to determine covariates of morbidity and mortality. The database search yielded 300 patients, of whom 118 (39.3%) were female. Overall, complications within 30 days of surgery occurred in 102 (34%) patients. Significant risk factors for morbidity included preoperative anemia (P < 0.0001), the need for preoperative blood transfusion (P = 0.034), preoperative hypoalbuminemia (P = 0.002), American Society of Anesthesiologists score 3 or 4 (P = 0.0002), and operative time >4 hours (P < 0.0001). Thirty-day mortality occurred in 15 (5%) patients and was independently associated with preoperative anemia (odds ratio 3.4, 95% confidence interval 1.8-6.5) and operative time >4 hours (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.1-6.0). Excision of epidural lumbar spinal tumors carries a relatively high complication rate. This series reveals distinct risk factors that contribute to 30-day morbidity and mortality, which may be optimized preoperatively to improve surgical safety. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults (The ELSA and Bambui cohort ageing studies)

PubMed Central

Marmot, Michael G.; Demakakos, Panayotes; Vaz de Melo Mambrini, Juliana; Peixoto, Sérgio Viana; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda

2016-01-01

Background: The main aim of this study was to quantify and compare 6-year mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults. This study represents a rare opportunity to approach the subject in two different social and economic contexts. Methods: Data from the data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing (Brazil) were used. Deaths in both cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Risk factors considered in this study were baseline smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Both age–sex adjusted hazard ratios and population attributable risks (PAR) of all-cause mortality and their 95% confidence intervals for the association between risk factors and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Participants were 3205 English and 1382 Brazilians aged 60 years and over. First, Brazilians showed much higher absolute risk of mortality than English and this finding was consistent in all age, independently of sex. Second, as a rule, hazard ratios for mortality to smoking, hypertension and diabetes showed more similarities than differences between these two populations. Third, there was strong difference among English and Brazilians on attributable deaths to hypertension. Conclusions: The findings indicate that, despite of being in more recent transitions, the attributable deaths to one or more risk factors was twofold among Brazilians relative to the English. These findings call attention for the challenge imposed to health systems to prevent and treat non-communicable diseases, particularly in populations with low socioeconomic level. PMID:26666869

Differences between Risk Factors Associated with Tuberculosis Treatment Abandonment and Mortality

PubMed Central

Gomes, Nathália Mota de Faria; Bastos, Meire Cardoso da Mota; Marins, Renata Magliano; Barbosa, Aline Alves; Soares, Luiz Clóvis Parente; de Abreu, Annelise Maria de Oliveira Wilken; Souto Filho, João Tadeu Damian

2015-01-01

Objectives. To identify the risk factors that were associated with abandonment of treatment and mortality in tuberculosis (TB) patients. Methods. This study was a retrospective longitudinal cohort study involving tuberculosis patients treated between 2002 and 2008 in a TB reference center. Results. A total of 1,257 patients were evaluated, with 69.1% men, 54.4% under 40 years of age, 18.9% with extrapulmonary disease, and 9.3% coinfected with HIV. The risk factors that were associated with abandonment of treatment included male gender (OR = 2.05; 95% CI = 1.15–3.65) and nonadherence to previous treatment (OR = 3.14; 95% CI = 1.96–5.96). In addition, the presence of extrapulmonary TB was a protective factor (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.14–0.76). The following risk factors were associated with mortality: age over 40 years (OR = 2.61, 95% CI = 1.76–3.85), coinfection with HIV (OR = 6.01, 95% CI = 3.78–9.56), illiteracy (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.27–2.75), the presence of severe extrapulmonary TB (OR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.24–4.38), and retreatment after relapse (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.01–3.75). Conclusions. Male gender and retreatment after abandonment were independent risk factors for nonadherence to TB treatment. Furthermore, age over 40 years, coinfection with HIV, illiteracy, severe extrapulmonary TB, and retreatment after relapse were associated with higher TB mortality. Therefore, we suggest the implementation of direct measures that will control the identified risk factors to reduce the rates of treatment failure and TB-associated mortality. PMID:26600948

Mortality risk and associated factors in HIV-exposed, uninfected children.

PubMed

Arikawa, Shino; Rollins, Nigel; Newell, Marie-Louise; Becquet, Renaud

2016-06-01

With increasing maternal antiretroviral treatment (ART), the number of children newly infected with HIV has declined. However, the possible increased mortality in the large number of HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) children may be of concern. We quantified mortality risks among HEU children and reviewed associated factors. Systematic search of electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus). We included all studies reporting mortality of HEU children to age 60 months and associated factors. Relative risk of mortality between HEU and HIV-unexposed, uninfected (HUU) children was extracted where relevant. Inverse variance methods were used to adjust for study size. Random-effects models were fitted to obtain pooled estimates. A total of 14 studies were included in the meta-analysis and 13 in the review of associated factors. The pooled cumulative mortality in HEU children was 5.5% (95% CI: 4.0-7.2; I(2) = 94%) at 12 months (11 studies) and 11.0% (95% CI: 7.6-15.0; I(2) = 93%) at 24 months (four studies). The pooled risk ratios for the mortality in HEU children compared to HUU children in the same setting were 1.9 (95% CI: 0.9-3.8; I(2) = 93%) at 12 months (four studies) and 2.4 (95% CI: 1.1-5.1; I(2) = 93%) at 24 months (three studies). Compared to HUU children, mortality risk in HEU children was about double at both age points, although the association was not statistically significant at 12 months. Interpretation of the pooled estimates is confounded by considerable heterogeneity between studies. Further research is needed to characterise the impact of maternal death and breastfeeding on the survival of HEU infants in the context of maternal ART, where current evidence is limited. © 2016 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[1991-2004 follow-up of a Spanish general population cohort. Mortality and raising risk factors in the DRECE III Study (Diet and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases in Spain)].

PubMed

Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Rubio Herrera, Miguel Angel; Gutiérrez Fuentes, José Antonio; Gómez Gerique, Juan Antonio; del Campo, Jorge; Jurado Valenzuela, César; Lapetra Peralta, José; Menús Palazón, Elena; Rodríguez Pascual, Nieves

2008-01-01

The DRECE III study is based on the follow up of a cohort representative of the Spanish general population. The mortality, its main causes and relevant risk factors have been analyzed. The DRECE cohort is composed of 4783 subjects followed since 1991 to 2004 (70930 person-years). In 1991 a general medical exam including blood analysis and nutritional questionnaire was undertaken. Currently the age spam is from 18 to 73 years. Vital status and mortality causes were provided by the National Institute of Statistics. In this period, 125 deaths were registered: 53 persons (42.4%) due to cancer; 31 persons (24.8%) due to circulatory causes, of which 24 were due to cardiovascular origin. The remaining 41 (32.8%) deaths were included under the ICD 10 "Other chapters". For the all causes mortality the independent associated variables were: creatinina 1.5 mgr/dl, HR 3.78 (95% CI: 1.52-9.40); diabetes, HR 2.80 (95% CI: 1.74-4.46); male sex, HR 2.39 (I95% CI: 1.61-3.55); age, HR 1.08 (I95% CI: 1.07-1.10); and gammaglutamil transpeptidasa, HR 1.001 (I95% CI: 1.000-1.003). In the case of cancer mortality the risk factors founded were: age, HR 1.12 (I95% CI: 1.09-1.16); and tobacco, HR 1.33 (I95% CI: 1.14-1.54). For cardiovascular mortality were creatinina 1.5 mg/dl, HR 19.40 (I95% CI: 5.45-69.12); diabetes, HR 9.82 (I95% CI: 4.19-23.04); and age, HR 1.10 (I95% CI: 1.05-1.15). We obtain a mortality pattern where cancer is the most frequent cause. Classic risk factors appear associated to main death causes. Diabetes mellitus has an outstanding role as risk factor associated to early mortality. No specific diet data was associated neither to all causes mortality, nor to cardiovascular or cancer.

Mortality in patients with acute aortic dissection type A: analysis of pre- and intraoperative risk factors from the German Registry for Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA).

PubMed

Conzelmann, Lars Oliver; Weigang, Ernst; Mehlhorn, Uwe; Abugameh, Ahmad; Hoffmann, Isabell; Blettner, Maria; Etz, Christian D; Czerny, Martin; Vahl, Christian F

2016-02-01

Acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) is an emergency with excessive mortality if surgery is delayed. Knowledge about independent predictors of mortality on surgically treated AADA patients is scarce. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify pre- and intraoperative risk factors for death. Between July 2006 and June 2010, 2137 surgically treated patients with AADA were enrolled in a multicentre, prospective German Registry for Acute Aortic Dissection type A (GERAADA), presenting perioperative status, operative strategies, postoperative outcomes and AADA-related risk factors for death. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the influence of different parameters on 30-day mortality. Overall 30-day mortality (16.9%) increased with age [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.121] and among patients who were comatose (adjusted OR = 3.501) or those who underwent cardiopulmonary resuscitation (adjusted OR = 3.751; all P < 0.0001). The higher the number of organs that were malperfused, the risk for death was (adjusted OR for one organ = 1.651, two organs = 2.440, three organs or more = 3.393, P < 0.0001). Mortality increased with longer operating times (total, cardiopulmonary bypass, cardiac ischaemia and circulatory arrest; all P < 0.02). Arterial cannulation site for extracorporeal circulation, operative techniques and arch interventions had no significant impact on 30-day mortality (all P > 0.1). No significant risk factors, but relevant increases in mortality, were determined in patients suffering from hemiparesis pre- and postoperatively (each P < 0.01), and in patients experiencing paraparesis after surgery (P < 0.02). GERAADA could detect significant disease- and surgery-related risk factors for death in AADA, influencing the outcome of surgically treated AADA patients. Comatose and resuscitated patients have the poorest outcome. Cannulation sites and operative techniques did not seem to affect mortality. Short operative times are associated with better outcomes. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Infant mortality in South Africa - distribution, associations and policy implications, 2007: an ecological spatial analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Many sub-Saharan countries are confronted with persistently high levels of infant mortality because of the impact of a range of biological and social determinants. In particular, infant mortality has increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The geographic distribution of health problems and their relationship to potential risk factors can be invaluable for cost effective intervention planning. The objective of this paper is to determine and map the spatial nature of infant mortality in South Africa at a sub district level in order to inform policy intervention. In particular, the paper identifies and maps high risk clusters of infant mortality, as well as examines the impact of a range of determinants on infant mortality. A Bayesian approach is used to quantify the spatial risk of infant mortality, as well as significant associations (given spatial correlation between neighbouring areas) between infant mortality and a range of determinants. The most attributable determinants in each sub-district are calculated based on a combination of prevalence and model risk factor coefficient estimates. This integrated small area approach can be adapted and applied in other high burden settings to assist intervention planning and targeting. Results Infant mortality remains high in South Africa with seemingly little reduction since previous estimates in the early 2000's. Results showed marked geographical differences in infant mortality risk between provinces as well as within provinces as well as significantly higher risk in specific sub-districts and provinces. A number of determinants were found to have a significant adverse influence on infant mortality at the sub-district level. Following multivariable adjustment increasing maternal mortality, antenatal HIV prevalence, previous sibling mortality and male infant gender remained significantly associated with increased infant mortality risk. Of these antenatal HIV sero-prevalence, previous sibling mortality and maternal mortality were found to be the most attributable respectively. Conclusions This study demonstrates the usefulness of advanced spatial analysis to both quantify excess infant mortality risk at the lowest administrative unit, as well as the use of Bayesian modelling to quantify determinant significance given spatial correlation. The "novel" integration of determinant prevalence at the sub-district and coefficient estimates to estimate attributable fractions further elucidates the "high impact" factors in particular areas and has considerable potential to be applied in other locations. The usefulness of the paper, therefore, not only suggests where to intervene geographically, but also what specific interventions policy makers should prioritize in order to reduce the infant mortality burden in specific administration areas. PMID:22093084

Variation in Risk-Standardized Mortality of Stroke among Hospitals in Japan.

PubMed

Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Yasunaga, Hideo

2015-01-01

Despite recent advances in care, stroke remains a life-threatening disease. Little is known about current hospital mortality with stroke and how it varies by hospital in a national clinical setting in Japan. Using the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database (a national inpatient database in Japan), we identified patients aged ≥ 20 years who were admitted to the hospital with a primary diagnosis of stroke within 3 days of stroke onset from April 2012 to March 2013. We constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to predict in-hospital death for each patient with patient-level factors, including age, sex, type of stroke, Japan Coma Scale, and modified Rankin Scale. We defined risk-standardized mortality ratio as the ratio of the actual number of in-hospital deaths to the expected number of such deaths for each hospital. A hospital-level multivariable linear regression was modeled to analyze the association between risk-standardized mortality ratio and hospital-level factors. We performed a patient-level Cox regression analysis to examine the association of in-hospital death with both patient-level and hospital-level factors. Of 176,753 eligible patients from 894 hospitals, overall in-hospital mortality was 10.8%. The risk-standardized mortality ratio for stroke varied widely among the hospitals; the proportions of hospitals with risk-standardized mortality ratio categories of ≤ 0.50, 0.51-1.00, 1.01-1.50, 1.51-2.00, and >2.00 were 3.9%, 47.9%, 41.4%, 5.2%, and 1.5%, respectively. Academic status, presence of a stroke care unit, higher hospital volume and availability of endovascular therapy had a significantly lower risk-standardized mortality ratio; distance from the patient's residence to the hospital was not associated with the risk-standardized mortality ratio. Our results suggest that stroke-ready hospitals play an important role in improving stroke mortality in Japan.

Three-year mortality rate of suicide attempters in consultation-liaison service.

PubMed

Chen, Hong-Ming; Hung, Tai-Hsin; Chou, Shih-Yong; Tsai, Ching-Shu; Su, Jian-An

2016-11-01

Suicide attempters might be sent to the emergency room for urgent medical intervention. Some with more severe physical morbidity may be hospitalised, and psychiatrists might be consulted for suicide evaluation. The aim of our study was to investigate the three-year all-cause mortality rate of hospitalised suicide attempters with regard to the effect of consultation-liaison services, and to identify any risk factors associated with mortality. Between 2002 and 2006, 196 inpatients from medical or surgical wards in a general hospital who had consulted psychiatrists because of suicide attempts were collected consecutively. We traced their mortality incidence during a three-year period, and calculated the mortality rate and time (days) to death. Three-year all-cause mortality was 20.4%, and there was a higher risk of mortality in the first two years after the index suicide attempt. In the adjusted Cox regression model, associated risks included male gender, older age, diagnosis of depressive disorders and lack of psychiatric follow-up. We found that hospitalised suicide attempters had higher all-cause mortality after discharge, and determined that psychiatric follow-up is helpful. More attention should be paid to those with potential risk factors, and timely intervention is suggested in order to reduce mortality.

Prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk factors for advanced fibrosis and mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Le, Michael H; Devaki, Pardha; Ha, Nghiem B; Jun, Dae Won; Te, Helen S; Cheung, Ramsey C; Nguyen, Mindie H

2017-01-01

In the United States, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease and associated with higher mortality according to data from earlier National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1988-1994. Our goal was to determine the NAFLD prevalence in the recent 1999-2012 NHANES, risk factors for advanced fibrosis (stage 3-4) and mortality. NAFLD was defined as having a United States Fatty Liver Index (USFLI) > 30 in the absence of heavy alcohol use and other known liver diseases. The probability of low/high risk of having advanced fibrosis was determined by the NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS). In total, 6000 persons were included; of which, 30.0% had NAFLD and 10.3% of these had advanced fibrosis. Five and eight-year overall mortality in NAFLD subjects with advanced fibrosis was significantly higher than subjects without NAFLD ((18% and 35% vs. 2.6% and 5.5%, respectively) but not NAFLD subjects without advanced fibrosis (1.1% and 2.8%, respectively). NAFLD with advanced fibrosis (but not those without) is an independent predictor for mortality on multivariate analysis (HR = 3.13, 95% CI 1.93-5.08, p<0.001). In conclusion, in this most recent NHANES, NAFLD prevalence remains at 30% with 10.3% of these having advanced fibrosis. NAFLD per se was not a risk factor for increased mortality, but NAFLD with advanced fibrosis was. Mexican American ethnicity was a significant risk factor for NAFLD but not for advanced fibrosis or increased mortality.

Trends in coronary risk factors and electrocardiogram findings from 1977 to 2009 with 10-year mortality in Japanese elderly males - The Tanushimaru Study.

PubMed

Nakamura, Sachiko; Adachi, Hisashi; Enomoto, Mika; Fukami, Ako; Kumagai, Eita; Nohara, Yume; Kono, Shoko; Nakao, Erika; Sakaue, Akiko; Tsuru, Tomoko; Morikawa, Nagisa; Fukumoto, Yoshihiro

2017-10-01

An understanding of the trends in regard to coronary risk factors and electrocardiogram (ECG) findings has an important role in public health. We investigated the trends in coronary risk factors and main ECG findings in 1977, 1989, 1999, and 2009 in the Japanese cohort of the Seven Countries Study, in Tanushimaru, a typical farming town on Kyushu Island. A total of 1397 subjects (231 in 1977, 332 in 1989, 389 in 1999, and 445 in 2009) were enrolled in this study, and all of them were males aged over 65 years. In coronary risk factors, total cholesterol levels, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, and uric acid significantly increased during these 3 decades. The prevalence of smokers markedly decreased from 56.7% in 1977 to 16.8% in 2009. ECG changes during 3 decades were wider QRS interval, increased prevalence of major abnormality, reduced heart rate, shortened PR interval and corrected QT, and decreased prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy. Age, smoking habits, major and minor abnormalities in ECG were associated with mortality in 1977-1987. Age, total cholesterol levels (inversely) and corrected QT were associated with mortality in 1989-1999. Age, smoking habits, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure were associated with mortality in 1999-2009. Predictors of mortality have changed with the times. Coronary risk factors such as smoking, increased heart rate, and elevated blood pressure have been recently associated with mortalities in elderly male Japanese general population. Copyright © 2016 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular disease risk factors in relation to suicide mortality in Asia: prospective cohort study of over one million Korean men and women

PubMed Central

Jee, Sun Ha; Kivimaki, Mika; Kang, Hee-Cheol; Park, Il Su; Samet, Jonathan M.; Batty, G. David

2011-01-01

Aims A potential role for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in the aetiology of suicide has not been comprehensively examined. In addition to being small in scale and poorly characterized, existing studies very rarely sample Asian populations in whom risk factor–suicide relationships may plausibly differ to Caucasian groups. We examined the association between a series of CVD risk factors and future mortality from suicide. Methods and results The Korean Cancer Prevention Study is a prospective cohort study comprising 1 234 927 individuals (445 022 women) aged 30–95 years with extensive measurement of established CVD risk factors at baseline and subsequent mortality surveillance. Fourteen years of follow-up gave rise to 472 deaths (389 in men and 83 in women) from suicide. After adjustment for a range of covariates, in men, smoking hazard ratio; 95% CI: (current vs. never: 1.69; 1.27, 2.24), alcohol intake (1–24 g/day vs. none: 1.29; 1.00, 1.66), blood cholesterol (≥240 vs. <200 mg/dL: 0.54; 0.36, 0.80), body mass index (underweight vs. normal weight: 2.08; 1.26, 3.45), stature [quartile 1(lowest) vs. 4: 1.68; 1.23, 2.30], socioeconomic status [quartile 1(lowest) vs. 4: 1.65; 1.21, 2.24], and martial status (unmarried vs. other: 1.60; 0.83, 3.06) were related to suicide mortality risk. These associations were generally apparent in women, although of lower magnitude. Exercise and blood pressure were not associated with completed suicide. Conclusion In this cohort of Korean men and women, a series of CVD risk factors were associated with an elevated risk of future suicide mortality. PMID:21911340

Psychological factors and mortality in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer (JACC).

PubMed

Tanno, Kozo; Sakata, Kiyomi

2007-01-01

Psychological factors may have an influence on disease processes and therefore they were investigated in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study. Overall there were very few consistent associations with cancer death. Persons with 'ikigai', defined as 'that which most makes one's life seem worth living', demonstrated decreased risk of mortality from all causes, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD).There was no consistent link with being quick to judge, although those answering no to quick judgement were at increased risk of all cause, IHD and CVD mortality. psychological stress was related to a slightly elevated risk of all cause death, IHD in men and CVD in women. However, a sense of hurry was linked to a slightly reduced risk for mortality from all causes and CVD. Persons who were likely to be angry had an increased risk for mortality from all causes. In women not likely to be angry there were also positive links to death from cancers like breast. Joyfulness was associated with decreased mortality, especially from CVD. A feeling of being trusted was also protective, again particularly for CVD.

The Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Mortality in Brazil.

PubMed

Otto, Marcia C de Oliveira; Afshin, Ashkan; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Fahimi, Saman; Singh, Gitanjali; Danaei, Goodarz; Sichieri, Rosely; Monteiro, Carlos A; Louzada, Maria L C; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-01-01

Trends in food availability and metabolic risk factors in Brazil suggest a shift toward unhealthy dietary patterns and increased cardiometabolic disease risk, yet little is known about the impact of dietary and metabolic risk factors on cardiometabolic mortality in Brazil. Based on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we used comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors on mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in Brazil in 2010. Information on national diets and metabolic risks were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey, the Food and Agriculture Organization database, and large observational studies including Brazilian adults. Relative risks for each risk factor were obtained from meta-analyses of randomized trials or prospective cohort studies; and disease-specific mortality from the GBD 2010 database. We quantified uncertainty using probabilistic simulation analyses, incorporating uncertainty in dietary and metabolic data and relative risks by age and sex. Robustness of findings was evaluated by sensitivity to varying feasible optimal levels of each risk factor. In 2010, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and suboptimal diet were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths in Brazil, responsible for 214,263 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 195,073 to 233,936) and 202,949 deaths (95% UI: 194,322 to 211,747), respectively. Among individual dietary factors, low intakes of fruits and whole grains and high intakes of sodium were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths. For premature cardiometabolic deaths (before age 70 years, representing 40% of cardiometabolic deaths), the leading risk factors were suboptimal diet (104,169 deaths; 95% UI: 99,964 to 108,002), high SBP (98,923 deaths; 95%UI: 92,912 to 104,609) and high body-mass index (BMI) (42,643 deaths; 95%UI: 40,161 to 45,111). suboptimal diet, high SBP, and high BMI are major causes of cardiometabolic death in Brazil, informing priorities for policy initiatives.

The Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Mortality in Brazil

PubMed Central

de Oliveira Otto, Marcia C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Fahimi, Saman; Singh, Gitanjali; Danaei, Goodarz; Sichieri, Rosely; Monteiro, Carlos A; Louzada, Maria L. C.; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-01-01

Background Trends in food availability and metabolic risk factors in Brazil suggest a shift toward unhealthy dietary patterns and increased cardiometabolic disease risk, yet little is known about the impact of dietary and metabolic risk factors on cardiometabolic mortality in Brazil. Methods Based on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we used comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors on mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in Brazil in 2010. Information on national diets and metabolic risks were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey, the Food and Agriculture Organization database, and large observational studies including Brazilian adults. Relative risks for each risk factor were obtained from meta-analyses of randomized trials or prospective cohort studies; and disease-specific mortality from the GBD 2010 database. We quantified uncertainty using probabilistic simulation analyses, incorporating uncertainty in dietary and metabolic data and relative risks by age and sex. Robustness of findings was evaluated by sensitivity to varying feasible optimal levels of each risk factor. Results In 2010, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and suboptimal diet were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths in Brazil, responsible for 214,263 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 195,073 to 233,936) and 202,949 deaths (95% UI: 194,322 to 211,747), respectively. Among individual dietary factors, low intakes of fruits and whole grains and high intakes of sodium were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths. For premature cardiometabolic deaths (before age 70 years, representing 40% of cardiometabolic deaths), the leading risk factors were suboptimal diet (104,169 deaths; 95% UI: 99,964 to 108,002), high SBP (98,923 deaths; 95%UI: 92,912 to 104,609) and high body-mass index (BMI) (42,643 deaths; 95%UI: 40,161 to 45,111). Conclusion suboptimal diet, high SBP, and high BMI are major causes of cardiometabolic death in Brazil, informing priorities for policy initiatives. PMID:26990765

Range of Risk Factor Levels: Control, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Rawshani, Aidin; Rawshani, Araz; Franzén, Stefan; Eliasson, Björn; Svensson, Ann-Marie; Miftaraj, Mervete; McGuire, Darren K; Sattar, Naveed; Rosengren, Annika; Gudbjörnsdottir, Soffia

2017-04-18

Individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) have a high risk of cardiovascular complications, but it is unknown to what extent fulfilling all cardiovascular treatment goals is associated with residual risk of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in those with T1DM compared with the general population. We included all patients ≥18 years of age with T1DM who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2014, a total of 33 333 patients, each matched for age and sex with 5 controls without diabetes mellitus randomly selected from the population. Patients with T1DM were categorized according to number of risk factors not at target: glycohemoglobin, blood pressure, albuminuria, smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Risk of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure hospitalization, and stroke was examined in relation to the number of risk factors at target. The mean follow-up was 10.4 years in the diabetes group. Overall, 2074 of 33 333 patients with diabetes mellitus and 4141 of 166 529 controls died. Risk for all outcomes increased stepwise for each additional risk factor not at target. Adjusted hazard ratios for patients achieving all risk factor targets compared with controls were 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-1.85) for all-cause mortality, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.15-2.88) for acute myocardial infarction, 1.97 (95% CI, 1.04-3.73) for heart failure hospitalization, and 1.17 (95% CI, 0.51-2.68) for stroke. The hazard ratio for patients versus controls with none of the risk factors meeting target was 7.33 (95% CI, 5.08-10.57) for all-cause mortality, 12.34 (95% CI, 7.91-19.48) for acute myocardial infarction, 15.09 (95% CI, 9.87-23.09) for heart failure hospitalization, and 12.02 (95% CI, 7.66-18.85) for stroke. A steep-graded association exists between decreasing number of cardiovascular risk factors at target and major adverse cardiovascular outcomes among patients with T1DM. However, risks for all outcomes were numerically higher for patients with T1DM compared with controls, even when all risk factors were at target, with risk for acute myocardial infarction and heart failure hospitalization statistically significantly higher. © 2017 The Authors.

Lifestyle factors and subsequent ischemic heart disease risk after hematopoietic cell transplantation.

PubMed

Leger, Kasey J; Baker, K Scott; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L; Flowers, Mary E D; Leisenring, Wendy M; Martin, Paul J; Mendoza, Jason A; Reding, Kerryn W; Syrjala, Karen L; Lee, Stephanie J; Chow, Eric J

2018-04-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate whether modifiable cardiovascular risk conditions and lifestyle factors were temporally associated with an increased risk for ischemic heart disease and overall mortality in a cohort of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) survivors. HCT recipients who had survived for ≥1 year, were ≥20 years old, and had undergone transplantation between 1970 and 2010 at a transplant referral center were surveyed in 2010-2011 about cardiovascular health and lifestyle factors (n = 3833). Respondents (n = 2360 [61.6%]) were followed to 2016 for incident ischemic heart disease and overall mortality. Among the 2360 transplant survivors (median age at the baseline survey, 55.9 years; median time since transplantation, 10.8 years), 162 (6.9%) reported ischemic heart disease at the baseline survey. Among those without ischemic heart disease at the baseline survey (n = 2198), the 5-year cumulative incidence of subsequent ischemic heart disease was 4.3%. Obesity, dyslipidemia, diabetes, and physical inactivity at baseline were associated with an increased risk for subsequent ischemic heart disease (hazard ratio [HRs] ≥ 1.8). Greater physical activity and fruit/vegetable intake at baseline were associated with subsequent lower overall mortality (HRs ≤ 0.7). When jointly considered, each additional cardiovascular risk condition and each adverse lifestyle factor were independently associated with subsequent ischemic heart disease (HR for risk conditions, 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-1.9; HR for lifestyle factors, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2-2.9), and adverse lifestyle factors remained associated with overall mortality (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.5-2.3). These results support strong efforts to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors and to treat cardiovascular risk factors aggressively in HCT survivors. This may reduce future ischemic heart disease and overall mortality in this high-risk population. Cancer 2018;124:1507-15. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

[WHO programs "Acute Myocardial Infarction Register", MONICA: thirty years (1977-2006) of epidemiological studies of myocardial infarction in a high-risk population].

PubMed

Gafarov, V V; Gafarova, A V

2011-01-01

To reveal 30 year (1977-2006) trends of myocardial infarction (MI) morbidity, lethality and mortality in population of the West Siberia megapolis (Novosibirsk). WHO programs "Acute Myocardial Infarction Register (AMIR) and MONICA covered 3 districts of Novosibirsk. MI morbidity in 25-64 year old population of Novosibirsk (high-risk population) in Russia is one of the highest in the world. MI morbidity was stable for 30 years excluding in 1988, 1994 and 1998 when it rose and in 2002-2004, 2006 when it lowered. Changes in mortality and lethality resemble changes in morbidity trend excluding 1977-1978 (fall) and 2002-2005 (rise). Prehospital mortality and lethality were much higher than those in hospital. Mortality and lethality in 1988, 1994, 1998 and 2002-2005 increased due to prehospital lethality and mortality, while it decreased in 1977-1978 due to hospital one. Reduction of mortality and lethality in stable MI morbidity shows improvement of medical care for MI patients, increased lethality and mortality in MI morbidity decline reflect deterioration of such care. Changes in behavioral and somatic factors of cardiovascular risk in population of Novosibirsk for 30 years were not observed while psychosocial risk factors gain a significant importance. By indirect indications, MI morbidity, mortality and lethality mark growing social stress in the population. MI mortality is 2-3 times higher than that of alcohol and is a basic factor of mortality increase in the population of Russia. MI morbidity, mortality and lethality are markers of social stress in population.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular mortality and the role of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors: a prospective cohort study with 17-years of follow up

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The mechanisms underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are largely unknown. We studied the contribution of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors to inequalities in CVD mortality in adulthood. Methods The prospective GLOBE study was carried out in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, and linked with the cause of death register in 2007. At baseline, participants reported on adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) (own educational level), childhood socioeconomic conditions (occupational level of respondent’s father), and a broad range of adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, psychosocial factors). This present study is based on 5,395 men and 6,306 women, and the data were analysed using Cox regression models and hazard ratios (HR). Results A low adulthood SEP was associated with increased CVD mortality for men (HR 1.84; 95% CI: 1.41-2.39) and women (HR 1.80; 95%CI: 1.04-3.10). Those with poorer childhood socioeconomic conditions were more likely to die from CVD in adulthood, but this reached statistical significance only among men with the poorest childhood socioeconomic circumstances. About half of the investigated adulthood risk factors showed significant associations with CVD mortality among both men and women, namely renting a house, experiencing financial problems, smoking, physical activity and marital status. Alcohol consumption and BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with CVD mortality among women, with the risk being significantly greater for both abstainers and heavy drinkers, and among women who were underweight or obese. Among men, being single or divorced and using sleep/anxiety drugs increased the risk of CVD mortality. In explanatory models, the largest contributor to adulthood CVD inequalities were material conditions for men (42%; 95% CI: −73 to −20) and behavioural factors for women (55%; 95% CI: -191 to −28). Simultaneous adjustment for adulthood risk factors and childhood socioeconomic conditions attenuated the HR for the lowest adulthood SEP to 1.34 (95% CI: 0.99-1.82) for men and 1.19 (95% CI: 0.65-2.15) for women. Conclusions Adulthood material, behavioural and psychosocial factors played a major role in the explanation of adulthood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances made a modest contribution, mainly via their association with adulthood risk factors. Policies and interventions to reduce health inequalities are likely to be most effective when considering the influence of socioeconomic circumstances across the entire life course and in particular, poor material conditions and unhealthy behaviours in adulthood. PMID:23217053

Diesel engine exhaust and lung cancer mortality: time-related factors in exposure and risk.

PubMed

Moolgavkar, Suresh H; Chang, Ellen T; Luebeck, Georg; Lau, Edmund C; Watson, Heather N; Crump, Kenny S; Boffetta, Paolo; McClellan, Roger

2015-04-01

To develop a quantitative exposure-response relationship between concentrations and durations of inhaled diesel engine exhaust (DEE) and increases in lung cancer risks, we examined the role of temporal factors in modifying the estimated effects of exposure to DEE on lung cancer mortality and characterized risk by mine type in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort, which followed 12,315 workers through December 1997. We analyzed the data using parametric functions based on concepts of multistage carcinogenesis to directly estimate the hazard functions associated with estimated exposure to a surrogate marker of DEE, respirable elemental carbon (REC). The REC-associated risk of lung cancer mortality in DEMS is driven by increased risk in only one of four mine types (limestone), with statistically significant heterogeneity by mine type and no significant exposure-response relationship after removal of the limestone mine workers. Temporal factors, such as duration of exposure, play an important role in determining the risk of lung cancer mortality following exposure to REC, and the relative risk declines after exposure to REC stops. There is evidence of effect modification of risk by attained age. The modifying impact of temporal factors and effect modification by age should be addressed in any quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of DEE. Until there is a better understanding of why the risk appears to be confined to a single mine type, data from DEMS cannot reliably be used for QRA. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cardiovascular Disease Prevalence and Risk Factors of Persons with Mental Retardation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Draheim, Christopher C.

2006-01-01

This paper reviews the recent literature on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevalence, CVD-related mortality, physiological CVD risk factors, and behavioral CVD risk factors in adults with mental retardation (MR). The literature on the potential influences of modifiable behavioral CVD risk factors and the physiological CVD risk factors are also…

A novel index for quantifying the risk of early complications for patients undergoing cervical spine surgeries.

PubMed

Passias, Peter G; Diebo, Bassel G; Marascalchi, Bryan J; Jalai, Cyrus M; Horn, Samantha R; Zhou, Peter L; Paltoo, Karen; Bono, Olivia J; Worley, Nancy; Poorman, Gregory W; Challier, Vincent; Dixit, Anant; Paulino, Carl; Lafage, Virginie

2017-11-01

OBJECTIVE It is becoming increasingly necessary for surgeons to provide evidence supporting cost-effectiveness of surgical treatment for cervical spine pathology. Anticipating surgical risk is critical in accurately evaluating the risk/benefit balance of such treatment. Determining the risk and cost-effectiveness of surgery, complications, revision procedures, and mortality rates are the most significant limitations. The purpose of this study was to determine independent risk factors for medical complications (MCs), surgical complications (SCs), revisions, and mortality rates following surgery for patients with cervical spine pathology. The most relevant risk factors were used to structure an index that will help quantify risk and anticipate failure for such procedures. METHODS The authors of this study performed a retrospective review of the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database for patients treated surgically for cervical spine pathology between 2001 and 2010. Multivariate models were performed to calculate the odds ratio (OR) of the independent risk factors that led to MCs and repeated for SCs, revisions, and mortality. The models controlled for age (< and > 65 years old), sex, race, revision status (except for revision analysis), surgical approach, number of levels fused/re-fused (2-3, 4-8, ≥ 9), and osteotomy utilization. ORs were weighted based on their predictive category: 2 times for revision surgery predictors and 4 times for mortality predictors. Fifty points were distributed among the predictors based on their cumulative OR to establish a risk index. RESULTS Discharges for 362,989 patients with cervical spine pathology were identified. The mean age was 52.65 years, and 49.47% of patients were women. Independent risk factors included medical comorbidities, surgical parameters, and demographic factors. Medical comorbidities included the following: pulmonary circulation disorder, coagulopathy, metastatic cancer, renal failure, congestive heart failure, alcohol abuse, neurological disorder, nonmetastatic cancer, liver disease, rheumatoid arthritis/collagen vascular diseases, and chronic blood loss/anemia. Surgical parameters included posterior approach to fusion/re-fusion, ≥ 9 levels fused/re-fused, corpectomy, 4-8 levels fused/re-fused, and osteotomy; demographic variables included age ≥ 65 years. These factors increased the risk of at least 1 of MC, SC, revision, or mortality (risk of death). A total of 50 points were distributed among the factors based on the cumulative risk ratio of every factor in proportion to the total risk ratios. CONCLUSIONS This study proposed an index to quantify the potential risk of morbidity and mortality prior to surgical intervention for patients with cervical spine pathology. This index may be useful for surgeons in patient counseling efforts as well as for health insurance companies and future socioeconomics studies in assessing surgical risks and benefits for patients undergoing surgical treatment of the cervical spine.

The potential impact of a social redistribution of specific risk factors on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality: illustration of a method based on population attributable fractions.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje Andreas; Kulhánová, Ivana; Dahl, Espen; Deboosere, Patrick; Dzúrová, Dagmar; van Oyen, Herman; Rychtaríková, Jitka; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Mackenbach, Johan P

2013-01-01

Socioeconomic differences in health are a major challenge for public health. However, realistic estimates to what extent they are modifiable are scarce. This problem can be met through the systematic application of the population attributable fraction (PAF) to socioeconomic health inequalities. The authors used cause-specific mortality data by educational level from Belgium, Norway and Czech Republic and data on the prevalence of smoking, alcohol, lack of physical activity and high body mass index from national health surveys. Information on the impact of these risk factors on mortality comes from the epidemiological literature. The authors calculated PAFs to quantify the impact on socioeconomic health inequalities of a social redistribution of risk factors. The authors developed an Excel tool covering a wide range of possible scenarios and the authors compare the results of the PAF approach with a conventional regression. In a scenario where the whole population gets the risk factor prevalence currently seen among the highly educated inequalities in mortality can be reduced substantially. According to the illustrative results, the reduction of inequality for all risk factors combined varies between 26% among Czech men and 94% among Norwegian men. Smoking has the highest impact for both genders, and physical activity has more impact among women. After discussing the underlying assumptions of the PAF, the authors concluded that the approach is promising for estimating the extent to which health inequalities can be potentially reduced by interventions on specific risk factors. This reduction is likely to differ substantially between countries, risk factors and genders.

Anti-Gay Prejudice and All-Cause Mortality Among Heterosexuals in the United States

PubMed Central

Bellatorre, Anna; Muennig, Peter

2014-01-01

Objectives. We determined whether individuals who harbor antigay prejudice experience elevated mortality risk. Methods. Data on heterosexual sexual orientation (n = 20 226, aged 18–89 years), antigay attitudes, and mortality risk factors came from the General Social Survey, which was linked to mortality data from the National Death Index (1988–2008). We used Cox proportional hazard models to examine whether antigay prejudice was associated with mortality risk among heterosexuals. Results. Heterosexuals who reported higher levels of antigay prejudice had higher mortality risk than those who reported lower levels (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09, 1.42), with control for multiple risk factors for mortality, including demographics, socioeconomic status, and fair or poor self-rated health. This result translates into a life expectancy difference of approximately 2.5 years (95% CI = 1.0, 4.0 years) between individuals with high versus low levels of antigay prejudice. Furthermore, in sensitivity analyses, antigay prejudice was specifically associated with increased risk of cardiovascular-related causes of death in fully adjusted models (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.04, 1.60). Conclusions. The findings contribute to a growing body of research suggesting that reducing prejudice may improve the health of both minority and majority populations. PMID:24328664

Anti-gay prejudice and all-cause mortality among heterosexuals in the United States.

PubMed

Hatzenbuehler, Mark L; Bellatorre, Anna; Muennig, Peter

2014-02-01

We determined whether individuals who harbor antigay prejudice experience elevated mortality risk. Data on heterosexual sexual orientation (n = 20,226, aged 18-89 years), antigay attitudes, and mortality risk factors came from the General Social Survey, which was linked to mortality data from the National Death Index (1988-2008). We used Cox proportional hazard models to examine whether antigay prejudice was associated with mortality risk among heterosexuals. Heterosexuals who reported higher levels of antigay prejudice had higher mortality risk than those who reported lower levels (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09, 1.42), with control for multiple risk factors for mortality, including demographics, socioeconomic status, and fair or poor self-rated health. This result translates into a life expectancy difference of approximately 2.5 years (95% CI = 1.0, 4.0 years) between individuals with high versus low levels of antigay prejudice. Furthermore, in sensitivity analyses, antigay prejudice was specifically associated with increased risk of cardiovascular-related causes of death in fully adjusted models (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.04, 1.60). The findings contribute to a growing body of research suggesting that reducing prejudice may improve the health of both minority and majority populations.

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006.

PubMed

Rastam, Samer; Al Ali, Radwan; Maziak, Wasim; Mzayek, Fawaz; Fouad, Fouad M; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon

2012-09-09

Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.

Food Habits, Lifestyle Factors and Mortality among Oldest Old Chinese: The Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS).

PubMed

Shi, Zumin; Zhang, Tuohong; Byles, Julie; Martin, Sean; Avery, Jodie C; Taylor, Anne W

2015-09-09

There are few studies reporting the association between lifestyle and mortality among the oldest old in developing countries. We examined the association between food habits, lifestyle factors and all-cause mortality in the oldest old (≥80 years) using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). In 1998/99, 8959 participants aged 80 years and older took part in the baseline survey. Follow-up surveys were conducted every two to three years until 2011. Food habits were assessed using an in-person interview. Deaths were ascertained from family members during follow-up. Cox and Laplace regression were used to assess the association between food habits, lifestyle factors and mortality risk. There were 6626 deaths during 31,926 person-years of follow-up. Type of staple food (rice or wheat) was not associated with mortality. Daily fruit and vegetable intake was inversely associated with a higher mortality risk (hazard ratios (HRs): 0.85 (95% CI (confidence interval) 0.77-0.92), and 0.74 (0.66-0.83) for daily intake of fruit and vegetables, respectively). There was a positive association between intake of salt-preserved vegetables and mortality risk (consumers had about 10% increase of HR for mortality). Fruit and vegetable consumption were inversely, while intake of salt-preserved vegetables positively, associated with mortality risk among the oldest old. Undertaking physical activity is beneficial for the prevention of premature death.

Explaining trends in coronary heart disease mortality in different socioeconomic groups in Denmark 1991-2007 using the IMPACTSEC model

PubMed Central

Joergensen, Torben; Bandosz, Piotr; Hallas, Jesper; Prescott, Eva Irene Bossano; Capewell, Simon

2018-01-01

Aim To quantify the contribution of changes in different risk factors population levels and treatment uptake on the decline in CHD mortality in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 in different socioeconomic groups. Design We used IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model using data from different population registries. Participants All adults aged 25–84 years living in Denmark in 1991 and 2007. Main outcome measure Deaths prevented or postponed (DPP). Results There were approximately 11,000 fewer CHD deaths in Denmark in 2007 than would be expected if the 1991 mortality rates had persisted. Higher mortality rates were observed in the lowest socioeconomic quintile. The highest absolute reduction in CHD mortality was seen in this group but the highest relative reduction was in the most affluent socioeconomic quintile. Overall, the IMPACTSEC model explained nearly two thirds of the decline in. Improved treatments accounted for approximately 25% with the least relative mortality reduction in the most deprived quintile. Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 40% of the mortality decrease with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. The 36% gap in explaining all DPPs may reflect inaccurate data or risk factors not quantified in the current model. Conclusions According to the IMPACTSEC model, the largest contribution to the CHD mortality decline in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 was from improvements in risk factors, with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. However, we found a clear socioeconomic trend for the treatment contribution favouring the most affluent groups. PMID:29672537

Sunlight Has Cardiovascular Benefits Independently of Vitamin D.

PubMed

Weller, Richard B

2016-01-01

High blood pressure (BP) is the leading risk factor for disability adjusted life years lost globally. Epidemiological data show a correlation between increased sun exposure and reduced population BP and cardiovascular mortality. Individuals with high serum vitamin D levels are at reduced risk of hypertension, cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome, yet multiple trial data show that oral vitamin D supplementation has no effect on these endpoints. Sunlight is a risk factor for skin cancers, but no link has been shown with increased all-cause mortality. Cohort studies from Scandinavia show a dose-dependent fall in mortality with increased sun-seeking behaviour. Skin contains significant stores of nitrogen oxides, which can be converted to NO by UV radiation and exported to the systemic circulation. Human studies show that this pathway can cause arterial vasodilatation and reduced BP. Murine studies suggest the same mechanism may reduce metabolic syndrome. Sunlight has beneficial effects on cardiovascular risk factors independently of vitamin D. All-cause mortality should be the primary determinant of public health messages. Sunlight is a risk factor for skin cancer, but sun avoidance may carry more of a cost than benefit for overall good health. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases and National Strategies to Control Them in Korea

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the most important causes of premature mortality and disability-adjusted life years in Korea. NCDs are also the main contributor to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality and life expectancy. Reduction of NCDs and NCD inequalities would result in significant improvement in healthy life expectancy and health equity in Korea. Major NCD risk factors such as dietary risks (including salt intake), alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, and high blood pressure were found to be the leading modifiable risk factors of disability-adjusted life years in Korea, based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study. Several Korean studies have shown that these risk factors play an important role in creating socioeconomic inequalities in NCD mortality and total mortality. Current international discussions on NCD policies in the United Nations and the World Health Organization would provide better opportunities for developing aggressive population-wide policy measures in Korea. Considering the paucity of population-wide policies to control major NCD risk factors in Korea, rigorous population approaches such as taxation and regulation of unhealthy commodities as well as public education and mass campaigns should be further developed in Korea. PMID:23946873

The Impact of Operative Approach on Postoperative Complications Following Colectomy for Colon Caner.

PubMed

Mungo, Benedetto; Papageorge, Christina M; Stem, Miloslawa; Molena, Daniela; Lidor, Anne O

2017-08-01

Colectomy is one of the most common major abdominal procedures performed in the USA. A better understanding of risk factors and the effect of operative approach on adverse postoperative outcomes may significantly improve quality of care. Adult patients with a primary diagnosis of colon cancer undergoing colectomy were selected from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2013-2015 targeted colectomy database. Patients were stratified into five groups based on specific operative approach. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to compare the five groups and identify risk factors for 30-day anastomotic leak, readmission, and mortality. In total, 25,097 patients were included in the study, with a 3.32% anastomotic leak rate, 1.20% mortality rate, and 9.57% readmission rate. After adjusting for other factors, open surgery and conversion to open significantly increased the odds for leak, mortality, and readmission compared to laparoscopy. Additionally, smoking and chemotherapy increased the risk for leak and readmission, while total resection was associated with increased mortality and leak. Operative approach and several other potentially modifiable perioperative factors have a significant impact on risk for adverse postoperative outcomes following colectomy. To improve quality of care for these patients, efforts should be made to identify and minimize the influence of such risk factors.

Association of Anxiety and Depression With All‐Cause Mortality in Individuals With Coronary Heart Disease

PubMed Central

Watkins, Lana L.; Koch, Gary G.; Sherwood, Andrew; Blumenthal, James A.; Davidson, Jonathan R.T.; O'Connor, Christopher; Sketch, Michael H.

2013-01-01

Background Depression has been related to mortality in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients, but few studies have evaluated the role of anxiety or the role of the co‐occurrence of depression and anxiety. We examined whether anxiety is associated with increased risk of mortality after accounting for depression in individuals with established CHD. Methods and Results The cohort was composed of 934 men and women with confirmed CHD (mean age, 62±11 years) who completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (HADS) during hospitalization for coronary angiography. Over the 3‐year follow‐up period, there were 133 deaths. Elevated scores on the HADS anxiety subscale (HADS‐A≥8) were associated with increased risk of mortality after accounting for established risk factors including age, congestive heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction, 3‐vessel disease, and renal disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27; 95% CI, 1.55 to 3.33; P<0.001). Elevated scores on the HADS depression subscale (HADS‐D≥8) were also associated with increased risk of mortality (HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.47 to 3.22; P<0.001). When both psychosocial factors were included in the model, each maintained an association with mortality (anxiety, HR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.83; P=0.006; depression, HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.58; P=0.025). Estimation of the HR for patients with both anxiety and depression versus those with neither revealed a larger HR than for patients with either factor alone (HR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.95 to 4.94; P<0.001). Conclusions Anxiety is associated with increased risk of mortality in CHD patients, particularly when comorbid with depression. Future studies should focus on the co‐occurrence of these psychosocial factors as markers of increased mortality risk. PMID:23537805

Extended spectrum beta-lactamase producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae bacteremia. Risk factors and outcome in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Memon, Javed I; Rehmani, Rifat S; Ahmed, Mughis U; Elgendy, Ahmad M; Nizami, Imran Y

2009-06-01

To study the risk factors for bacteremia caused by Escherichia coli (E. coli) or Klebsiella pneumoniae (K. pneumoniae) producing extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) and their outcome. A case-control study was conducted in King Abdul-Aziz National Guard Hospital, Al-Ahsa, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from January 2006 through December 2007. All adult patients for whom culture results were positive for E. coli or K. pneumoniae were eligible. Twenty-nine patients with ESBL producing bacteremia (cases) were compared with 80 patients with non-ESBL producing bacteremia controls. Hospital mortality was the primary end point. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were performed to analyze risk factors for ESBL bacteremia and its 30-day mortality. A total of 109 patients with bacteremia were enrolled that included 29 cases and 80 controls. Forty-nine percent of the patients were male. The mean age was 60.2+/-21.1 years. Nosocomial infection was the only independent risk factor for bacteremia due to ESBL-producing pathogens (odds ratio [OR] 3.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-8.44, p=0.02). Overall 30-day mortality was 22%, and was similar in both groups. The nosocomial infection (OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.48-6.94, p=0.01), presentation with septic shock (OR 48.88, 95% CI 6.01-397.32, p=0.004), and intensive care unit care (OR 7.40, 95% CI 1.94 -28.34, p=0.001) were the independent risk factors for 30-day mortality. The ESBL rate is high in our study among the bacteremic patients. Nosocomial infection is identified both as a risk factor for ESBL bacteremia and mortality.

Risk factors and mortality for nosocomial bloodstream infections in elderly patients.

PubMed

Reunes, S; Rombaut, V; Vogelaers, D; Brusselaers, N; Lizy, C; Cankurtaran, M; Labeau, S; Petrovic, M; Blot, S

2011-10-01

To determine risk factors for nosocomial bloodstream infection (BSI) and associated mortality in geriatric patients in geriatric and internal medicine wards at a university hospital. Single-center retrospective (1992-2007), pairwise-matched (1:1-ratio) cohort study. Geriatric patients with nosocomial BSI were matched with controls without BSI on year of admission and length of hospitalization before onset of BSI. Demographic, microbiological, and clinical data are collected. One-hundred forty-two BSI occurred in 129 patients. Predominant microorganisms were Escherichia coli (23.2%), coagulase-negative Staphylococci (19.4%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (8.4%), Staphylococcus aureus (7.1%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (5.8%) and Candida spp. (5.8%). Matching was successful for 109 cases. Compared to matched control subjects, cases were more frequently female, suffered more frequently from arthrosis, angina pectoris and pressure ulcers, had worse Activities of Daily Living-scores, had more often an intravenous or bladder catheter, and were more often bedridden. Logistic regression demonstrated presence of an intravenous catheter (odds ratio [OR] 7.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-22.9) and being bedridden (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.6-5.3) as independent risk factors for BSI. In univariate analysis nosocomial BSI was associated with increased mortality (22.0% vs. 11.0%; P=0.029). After adjustment for confounding co-variates, however, nosocomial BSI was not associated with mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% CI 0.6-2.6). Being bedridden and increasing age were independent risk factors for death. Intravenous catheters and being bedridden are the main risk factors for nosocomial BSI. Although associated with higher mortality, this infectious complication seems not to be an independent risk factor for death in geriatric patients. Copyright © 2011 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intra-dialytic hypertension is associated with high mortality in hemodialysis patients

PubMed Central

Yoon, Kyu Tae; Gil, Hyo Wook; Hong, Sae Yong

2017-01-01

Background Intra-dialytic hypertension (IDH) is emerging as an important issue in hemodialysis patients. Its risk factors and clinical outcomes are unclear. Methods A total of 73 prevalent hemodialysis patients were enrolled. They included 14 (19.2%) patients with baseline IDH and 59 patients without IDH. Their clinical parameters, laboratory parameters, and mortality were investigated over 78 months. Results The risks factor of IDH included low serum potassium levels, low ultrafiltration, and low arm muscle area. Lower median survival was evident in the IDH group compared to the non-IDH group, but was not significantly different. After adjusting for relevant confounders for age, the IDH group displayed 2.846 times higher mortality rate than the non-IDH Group (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.846; 95% confidence interval: 1.081–7.490; P = 0.034). Conclusion IDH is associated with high mortality in hemodialysis patients. Clinicians should be aware of the risk factors. Future research studies are needed to explore the mechanisms involved in the association between IDH and mortality. PMID:28742805

Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Case Study of the Minimum Provable Risk Considering the Variation in Background Risk: Effect of Residual Risk on Epidemiological Studies and a Comparative Assessment of Fatal Disease Risk Due to Radiation Exposure.

PubMed

Sasaki, Michiya; Ogino, Haruyuki; Hattori, Takatoshi

2018-06-08

In order to prove a small increment in a risk of concern in an epidemiological study, a large sample of a population is generally required. Since the background risk of an end point of interest, such as cancer mortality, is affected by various factors, such as lifestyle (diet, smoking, etc.), adjustment for such factors is necessary. However, it is impossible to inclusively and completely adjust for such factors; therefore, uncertainty in the background risk remains for control and exposed populations, indicating that there is a minimum limit to the lower bound for the provable risk regardless of the sample size. In this case study, we developed and discussed the minimum provable risk considering the uncertainty in background risk for hypothetical populations by referring to recent Japanese statistical information to grasp the extent of the minimum provable risk. Risk of fatal diseases due to radiation exposure, which has recently been the focus of radiological protection, was also examined by comparative assessment of the minimum provable risk for cancer and circulatory diseases. It was estimated that the minimum provable risk for circulatory disease mortality was much greater than that for cancer mortality, approximately five to seven times larger; circulatory disease mortality is more difficult to prove as a radiation risk than cancer mortality under the conditions used in this case study.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal.

A cohort study: temporal trends in prevalence of antecedents, comorbidities and mortality in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians with first heart failure hospitalization, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Teng, Tiew-Hwa Katherine; Katzenellenbogen, Judith M; Hung, Joseph; Knuiman, Matthew; Sanfilippo, Frank M; Geelhoed, Elizabeth; Bessarab, Dawn; Hobbs, Michael; Thompson, Sandra C

2015-08-12

Little is known about trends in risk factors and mortality for Aboriginal Australians with heart failure (HF). This population-based study evaluated trends in prevalence of risk factors, 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality following first HF hospitalization among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Western Australians in the decade 2000-2009. Linked-health data were used to identify patients (20-84 years), with a first-ever HF hospitalization. Trends in demographics, comorbidities, interventions and risk factors were evaluated. Logistic and Cox regression models were fitted to test and compare trends over time in 30-day and 1-year mortality. Of 17,379 HF patients, 1,013 (5.8%) were Aboriginal. Compared with 2000-2002, the prevalence (as history) of myocardial infarction and hypertension increased more markedly in 2006-2009 in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) patients, while diabetes and chronic kidney disease remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal patients. Risk factor trends, including the Charlson comorbidity index, increased over time in younger Aboriginal patients. Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality did not change over the decade in either group. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality (in 30-day survivors) was non-significantly higher in Aboriginal patients in 2006-2008 compared with 2000-2002 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.44; 95% CI 0.85-2.41; p-trend = 0.47) whereas it decreased in non-Aboriginal patients (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.78-0.97; p-trend = 0.01). Between 2000 and 2009, the prevalence of HF antecedents increased and remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) HF patients. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality did not improve in Aboriginal patients over the period in contrast with non-Aboriginal patients. These findings highlight the need for better prevention and post-HF care in Aboriginal Australians.

Fibrosis-Related Biomarkers and Risk of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality

PubMed Central

Agarwal, Isha; Glazer, Nicole L.; Barasch, Eddy; Biggs, Mary L.; Djoussé, Luc; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Gottdiener, John S.; Ix, Joachim H.; Kizer, Jorge R.; Rimm, Eric B.; Siscovick, David S.; Tracy, Russell P.; Zieman, Susan J.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

2014-01-01

Fibrosis has been implicated in diverse diseases of the liver, kidney, lungs, and heart, but its importance as a risk factor for mortality remains unconfirmed. We determined the prospective associations of 2 complementary biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with total and cause-specific mortality risks among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (1996–2010). We measured circulating TGF-β and PIIINP levels in plasma samples collected in 1996 and ascertained the number of deaths through 2010. Both TGF-β and PIIINP were associated with elevated risks of total and pulmonary mortality after adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors. For total mortality, the hazard ratios per doubling of TGF-β and PIIINP were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.17; P = 0.02) and 1.14 (CI: 1.03, 1.27; P = 0.01), respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for pulmonary mortality were 1.27 (CI: 1.01, 1.60; P = 0.04) for TGF-β and 1.52 (CI: 1.11, 2.10; P = 0.01) for PIIINP. Associations of TGF-β and PIIINP with total and pulmonary mortality were strongest among individuals with higher C-reactive protein concentrations (P for interaction < 0.05). Our findings provide some of the first large-scale prospective evidence that circulating biomarkers of fibrosis measured late in life are associated with death. PMID:24771724

Clinical risk factors for death after release from prison in Washington State: A nested case control study

PubMed Central

Binswanger, Ingrid A.; Stern, Marc F.; Yamashita, Traci E.; Mueller, Shane R.; Baggett, Travis P.; Blatchford, Patrick J.

2015-01-01

Background and aims While mortality rates after prison release are high, little is known about clinical risk factors for death. We sought to identify risk and protective factors for all-cause and accidental poisoning (overdose) death. Design Nested case control study of people released from prison. Setting Washington State Department of Corrections, Washington, USA. Participants Cases (699 all-cause deaths, of which 88 were among women, and 206 additional overdose deaths, of which 76 were among women) between 1999 and 2009 matched 1:1 to controls on sex, age and year of release using risk set sampling. Measurements Prison medical charts were abstracted for clinical information. Independent associations between clinical characteristics and all-cause and overdose mortality were assessed using conditional logistic regression. Findings Key independent risk factors for all-cause mortality included homelessness (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.53, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.06, 2.23), injection drug use (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.15, 2.05), tobacco use (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.06, 2.12), cirrhosis (OR 4.42, 95% CI 1.63, 11.98), and psychiatric medications before release (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.71, 3.29). Independent risk factors for overdose mortality included substance dependence (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.32, 4.11), injection drug use (OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.53, 3.86), panic disorder (OR 3.87, 95% CI 1.62, 9.21), psychiatric prescriptions before release (OR 2.44, 95% CI 1.55, 3.85), and problems with opiates/sedatives (OR 2.81, 95% CI 1.40, 5.63). Substance use disorder treatment during the index incarceration was protective for all-cause (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.49, 0.91) and overdose (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.35, 0.90) mortality. Conclusions Injection drug use and substance use disorders are risk factors for death after release from prison. In-prison substance use treatment services may reduce the risk. PMID:26476210

Contemporary epidemiology of renal cell carcinoma: perspectives of primary prevention.

PubMed

Weikert, Steffen; Ljungberg, Börje

2010-06-01

Epidemiological research of recent years has produced evidence for a role of lifestyle-associated risk factors in the etiology of renal cell carcinoma (RCC), the most common renal tumor. In this review, we give an overview of recent trends in incidence and mortality and summarize the current knowledge on risk factors of RCC. Data on incidence and mortality in the literature were reviewed. Global incidence data were derived from the Globocan database. A literature review of epidemiological studies on risk factors of kidney cancer was performed, with special emphasis on recent studies with high level of evidence, i.e., meta-analyses and prospective cohort studies. The incidence of renal malignancies has increased over recent decades in the context of the more widespread use of diagnostic imaging. However, time trends and geographic variations in incidence and mortality may also relate to changes in the prevalence of risk factors. Cigarette smoking, excess body weight and uncontrolled blood pressure are the most important and modifiable risk factors for RCC with a high prevalence in the general population. Moreover, dietary habits associated with a Western lifestyle were proposed as potential risk factors, but no food or food group has consistently been related to RCC risk. Based on the current evidence, reductions in the prevalence of cigarette smoking, overweight and hypertension are preventive strategies for RCC. More research is needed to establish the underlying mechanisms linking these risk factors and renal carcinogenesis.

Socioeconomic factors and adolescent pregnancy outcomes: distinctions between neonatal and post-neonatal deaths?

PubMed Central

Markovitz, Barry P; Cook, Rebeka; Flick, Louise H; Leet, Terry L

2005-01-01

Background Young maternal age has long been associated with higher infant mortality rates, but the role of socioeconomic factors in this association has been controversial. We sought to investigate the relationships between infant mortality (distinguishing neonatal from post-neonatal deaths), socioeconomic status and maternal age in a large, retrospective cohort study. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study using linked birth-death certificate data for Missouri residents during 1997–1999. Infant mortality rates for all singleton births to adolescent women (12–17 years, n = 10,131; 18–19 years, n = 18,954) were compared to those for older women (20–35 years, n = 28,899). Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all potential associations. Results The risk of infant (OR 1.95, CI 1.54–2.48), neonatal (1.69, 1.24–2.31) and post-neonatal mortality (2.47, 1.70–3.59) were significantly higher for younger adolescent (12–17 years) than older (20–34 years) mothers. After adjusting for race, marital status, age-appropriate education level, parity, smoking status, prenatal care utilization, and poverty status (indicated by participation in WIC, food stamps or Medicaid), the risk of post-neonatal mortality (1.73, 1.14–2.64) but not neonatal mortality (1.43, 0.98–2.08) remained significant for younger adolescent mothers. There were no differences in neonatal or post-neonatal mortality risks for older adolescent (18–19 years) mothers. Conclusion Socioeconomic factors may largely explain the increased neonatal mortality risk among younger adolescent mothers but not the increase in post-neonatal mortality risk. PMID:16042801

Exposure to an atomic bomb explosion is a risk factor for in-hospital death after esophagectomy to treat esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Nakashima, Y; Takeishi, K; Guntani, A; Tsujita, E; Yoshinaga, K; Matsuyama, A; Hamatake, M; Maeda, T; Tsutsui, S; Matsuda, H; Ishida, T

2015-01-01

Esophagectomy, one of the most invasive of all gastrointestinal operations, is associated with a high frequency of postoperative complications and in-hospital mortality. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether exposure to the atomic bomb explosion at Hiroshima in 1945 might be a preoperative risk factor for in-hospital mortality after esophagectomy in esophageal cancer patients. We thus reviewed the outcomes of esophagectomy in 31 atomic bomb survivors with esophageal cancer and 96 controls (also with cancer but without atomic bomb exposure). We compared the incidences of postoperative complications and in-hospital mortality. Of the clinicopathological features studied, mean patient age was significantly higher in atomic bomb survivors than in controls. Of the postoperative complications noted, atomic bomb survivors experienced a longer mean period of endotracheal intubation and higher incidences of severe pulmonary complications, severe anastomotic leakage, and surgical site infection. The factors associated with in-hospital mortality were exposure to the atomic bomb explosion, pulmonary comorbidities, and electrocardiographic abnormalities. Multivariate analysis revealed that exposure to the atomic bomb explosion was an independent significant preoperative risk factor for in-hospital mortality. Exposure to the atomic bomb explosion is thus a preoperative risk factor for in-hospital death after esophagectomy to treat esophageal cancer. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Risk factors for injury acute renal in patients with severe trauma and its effect on mortality.

PubMed

Baitello, André Luciano; Marcatto, Gustavo; Yagi, Roberto Kaoru

2013-01-01

The studies which associated acute kidney injury (AKI) and trauma emerged during the Second World War, and since then we have seen a progressive evolution of healthcare aiming at AKI prevention. However, establishing the risk factors for post-trauma AKI development remains crucial and may help reduce this complication. This study aims at identifying risk factors vis-à-vis the development of AKI in patients with severe trauma and its impact on mortality. This is a retrospective study of 75 patients with severe trauma. Six were taken off because they arrived at the hospital past the point of resuscitation. The variables considered were age, gender, trauma severity according to the Injury Severity Score (ISS) and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), trauma mechanism, mean blood pressure upon admission, fluid replacement in the first 24 hours, serum creatinine levels, use of nephrotoxic antibiotics, length of hospital stay, need for ICU admission and mortality. The prevalence of AKI in severe trauma patients was 17.3%, and the factors associated with ARF in this sample were Head Injury and GCS < 10. Mortality, length of hospital stay and the need for ICU were significantly higher in patients who developed AKI. The identification of these risk factors is of paramount importance for the development of care strategies for patients suffering from severe trauma, for the prevention of acute kidney injury and the associated high mortality.

Risk factors in cardiovascular disease mortality associated with high exposure to vehicular traffic.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Poliany Cristiny de Oliveira; Santos, Emerson Soares Dos; Hacon, Sandra de Souza; Ignotti, Eliane

2017-01-01

To identify areas and risk factors in cardiovascular disease (CD) mortality associated with air pollution from high exposure to vehicular traffic. Cross-sectional study of CD mortality in 2,617 individuals aged 45-85 years living in the urban area of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande, Mato Grosso State, Brazil, between 2009 and 2011. We used the residential proximity of up to 150 meters to a roadway of great vehicle flow as a proxy of high exposure to air pollution from vehicular traffic. The association between age, gender, income, and traffic intensity with vehicular traffic exposure was assessed through the multiple logistic regression. We conducted stratified analyses to observe the influence of seasons and groups of causes. We used Bernoulli's spatial model of probability to identify high-risk clusters. Risk factors for CD mortality associated with high exposure to vehicular traffic were: living in census tracts with very unequal income (OR = 1.78; 95%CI 1.36 - 2.33), heavy traffic (OR = 1.20; 95%CI 1.01 - 1.43), and female gender (OR = 1.18; 95%CI 1.01 - 1.38). The CD mortality risk increases about 10% during the dry season period. We identified nine areas of risk. High exposure to traffic is associated with CD mortality in Cuiabá and Várzea Grande. Income inequality, traffic intensity, and female gender presented as the main determiners for this exposure. The dry season period enhances the effects of traffic exposure.

Perioperative risk assessment in robotic general surgery: lessons learned from 884 cases at a single institution.

PubMed

Buchs, Nicolas C; Addeo, Pietro; Bianco, Francesco M; Gorodner, Veronica; Ayloo, Subhashini M; Elli, Enrique F; Oberholzer, José; Benedetti, Enrico; Giulianotti, Pier C

2012-08-01

To assess factors associated with morbidity and mortality following the use of robotics in general surgery. Case series. University of Illinois at Chicago. Eight hundred eighty-four consecutive patients who underwent a robotic procedure in our institution between April 2007 and July 2010. Perioperative morbidity and mortality. During the study period, 884 patients underwent a robotic procedure. The conversion rate was 2%, the mortality rate was 0.5%, and the overall postoperative morbidity rate was 16.7%. The reoperation rate was 2.4%. Mean length of stay was 4.5 days (range, 0.2-113 days). In univariate analysis, several factors were associated with increased morbidity and included either patient-related (cardiovascular and renal comorbidities, American Society of Anesthesiologists score ≥ 3, body mass index [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared] <30, age ≥ 70 years, and malignant disease) or procedure-related (blood loss ≥ 500 mL, transfusion, multiquadrant operation, and advanced procedure) factors. In multivariate analysis, advanced procedure, multiquadrant surgery, malignant disease, body mass index of less than 30, hypertension, and transfusion were factors significantly associated with a higher risk for complications. American Society of Anesthesiologists score of 3 or greater, age 70 years or older, cardiovascular comorbidity, and blood loss of 500 mL or more were also associated with increased risk for mortality. Use of the robotic approach for general surgery can be achieved safely with low morbidity and mortality. Several risk factors have been identified as independent causes for higher morbidity and mortality. These can be used to identify patients at risk before and during the surgery and, in the future, to develop a scoring system for the use of robotic general surgery

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in the Slovak Republic between 1993-2008.

PubMed

Psota, Marek; Bandosz, Piotr; Gonçalvesová, Eva; Avdičová, Mária; Bucek Pšenková, Mária; Studenčan, Martin; Pekarčíková, Jarmila; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2018-01-01

Between the years 1993 and 2008, mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Slovak Republic have decreased by almost one quarter. However, this was a smaller decline than in neighbouring countries. The aim of this modelling study was therefore to quantify the contributions of risk factor changes and the use of evidence-based medical therapies to the CHD mortality decline between 1993 and 2008. We identified, obtained and scrutinised the data required for the model. These data detailed trends in the major population cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes prevalence, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity levels), and also the uptake of all standard CHD treatments. The main data sources were official statistics (National Health Information Centre and Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) and national representative studies (AUDIT, SLOVAKS, SLOVASeZ, CINDI, EHES, EHIS). The previously validated IMPACT policy model was then used to combine and integrate these data with effect sizes from published meta-analyses quantifying the effectiveness of specific evidence-based treatments, and population-wide changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Results were expressed as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) attributable to risk factor changes or treatments. Uncertainties were explored using sensitivity analyses. Between 1993 and 2008 age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Slovak Republic (SR) decreased by 23% in men and 26% in women aged 25-74 years. This represented some 1820 fewer CHD deaths in 2008 than expected if mortality rates had not fallen. The IMPACT model explained 91% of this mortality decline. Approximately 50% of the decline was attributable to changes in acute phase and secondary prevention treatments, particularly acute and chronic treatments for heart failure (≈12%), acute coronary syndrome treatments (≈9%) and secondary prevention following AMI and revascularisation (≈8%). Changes in CHD risk factors explained approximately 41% of the total mortality decrease, mainly reflecting reductions in total serum cholesterol. However, other risk factors demonstrated adverse trends and thus generated approximately 740 additional deaths. Our analysis suggests that approximately half the CHD mortality fall recently observed in the SR may be attributable to the increased use of evidence-based treatments. However, the adverse trends observed in all the major cardiovascular risk factors (apart from total cholesterol) are deeply worrying. They highlight the need for more energetic population-wide prevention policies such as tobacco control, reducing salt and industrial trans fats content in processed food, clearer food labelling and regulated marketing of processed foods and sugary drinks.

Adult mortality of diseases and injuries attributable to selected metabolic, lifestyle, environmental, and infectious risk factors in Taiwan: a comparative risk assessment.

PubMed

Lo, Wei-Cheng; Ku, Chu-Chang; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chan, Chang-Chuan; Chen, Chi-Ling; Lai, Mei-Shu; Lin, Hsien-Ho

2017-05-03

To facilitate priority-setting in health policymaking, we compiled the best available information to estimate the adult mortality (>30 years) burden attributable to 13 metabolic, lifestyle, infectious, and environmental risk factors in Taiwan. We obtained data on risk factor exposure from nationally representative health surveys, cause-specific mortality from the National Death Registry, and relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate mortality burden attributable to individual risk factors or risk factor clusters. In 2009, high blood glucose accounted for 14,900 deaths (95% UI: 11,850-17,960), or 10.4% of all deaths in that year. It was followed by tobacco smoking (13,340 deaths, 95% UI: 10,330-16,450), high blood pressure (11,190 deaths, 95% UI: 8,190-14,190), ambient particulate matter pollution (8,600 deaths, 95% UI: 7,370-9,840), and dietary risks (high sodium intake and low intake of fruits and vegetables, 7,890 deaths, 95% UI: 5,970-9,810). Overweight-obesity and physical inactivity accounted for 7,620 deaths (95% UI: 6,040-9,190), and 7,400 deaths (95% UI: 6,670-8,130), respectively. The cardiometabolic risk factors of high blood pressure, high blood glucose, high cholesterol, and overweight-obesity jointly accounted for 12,120 deaths (95% UI: 11,220-13,020) from cardiovascular diseases. For domestic risk factors, infections from hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) were responsible for 6,300 deaths (95% UI: 5,610-6,980) and 3,170 deaths (95% UI: 1,860-4,490), respectively, and betel nut use was associated with 1,780 deaths from oral, laryngeal, and esophageal cancer (95% UI: 1,190-2,360). The leading risk factors for years of life lost were similar, but the impact of tobacco smoking and alcohol use became larger because the attributable deaths from these risk factors occurred among young adults aged less than 60 years. High blood glucose, tobacco smoking, and high blood pressure are the major risk factors for deaths from diseases and injuries among Taiwanese adults. A large number of years of life would be gained if the 13 modifiable risk factors could be removed or reduced to the optimal level.

Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

PubMed Central

Smith, Jim T

2007-01-01

Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the) major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident) with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks. PMID:17407581

The Geography of the Alzheimer's Disease Mortality in Spain: Should We Focus on Industrial Pollutants Prevention?

PubMed

2017-11-25

Alzheimer's disease (AD) has a high worldwide prevalence but little is known about its aetiology and risk factors. Recent research suggests environmental factors might increase AD risk. We aim to describe the association between AD mortality and the presence of highly polluting industry in small areas in Spain between 1999 and 2010. We calculated AD age-adjusted Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), stratified by sex, grouped by industrial pollution density, compared for each small area of Spain. In the small areas with the highest mortality, the SMR among women was at least 25% greater than the national average (18% in men). The distribution of AD mortality was generally similar to that of high industrial pollution (higher mortality in the north, the Mediterranean coast and in some southern areas). The risk of AD mortality among women was 140% higher (123% among men) in areas with the highest industrial density in comparison to areas without polluting industries. This study has identified a geographical pattern of small areas with higher AD mortality risk and an ecological positive association with the density of highly polluting industry. Further research is needed on the potential impact of this type of industry pollution on AD aetiology and mortality.

Differences in open versus laparoscopic gastric bypass mortality risk using the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS).

PubMed

Brolin, Robert E; Cody, Ronald P; Marcella, Stephen W

2015-01-01

The Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS) was developed to ascertain preoperative mortality risk of patients having bariatric surgery. To date there has not been a comparison between open and laparoscopic operations using the OS-MRS. To determine whether there are differences in mortality risk between open and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass (RYGB) using the OS-MRS. Three university-affiliated hospitals. The 90-day mortality of 2467 consecutive patients who had primary open (1574) or laparoscopic (893) RYGB performed by one surgeon was determined. Univariate and multivariate analysis using 5 OS-MRS risk factors including body mass index (BMI) gender, age>45, presence of hypertension and preoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) risk was performed in each group. Each patient was placed in 1 of 3 OS-MRS risk classes based on the number of risks: A (0-1), B (2-3), and C (4-5). Preoperative BMI and DVT risk factors were significantly greater in the open group (OG). Preoperative age was significantly greater in the laparoscopic group (LG). There were significantly more class B and C patients in LG. Ninety-day mortality rates for OG and LG patients were 1.0% and .9%, respectively. Pulmonary embolism was the most common cause of death. All deaths in LG occurred during first 4 years of that experience. Mortality rate by class was A = .1%; B = 1.5%; C = 2.3%. The difference in mortality between class B and C patients was not significant. Univariate analysis in the OG indicated that BMI, age, gender, and DVT risk were significant predictors of mortality. In the LG only BMI and DVT were significant predictors of death. Presence of hypertension was not a significant predictor in either group. Multivariate analysis excluding hypertension found that age was predictive of mortality in the OG while BMI (P = .057) and gender (P = .065) approached statistical significance. Conversely, only BMI was predictive of mortality in the LG with age approaching significance (P = .058). In multivariate analysis DVT risk was not predictive of mortality in either group. There are significant differences in the predictive value of the OS-MRS between open and laparoscopic RYGB. Although laparoscopic patients were significantly older versus the open patients, age was not predictive of mortality after laparoscopic RYGB. BMI trended toward increased mortality risk in both groups. Changes in technique and protocol likely contributed toward no mortality during the last 6 years of our laparoscopic experience. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Outcomes for endocarditis surgery in North America: a simplified risk scoring system.

PubMed

Gaca, Jeffrey G; Sheng, Shubin; Daneshmand, Mani A; O'Brien, Sean; Rankin, J Scott; Brennan, J Matthew; Hughes, G Chad; Glower, Donald D; Gammie, James S; Smith, Peter K

2011-01-01

Operation for infective endocarditis is associated with the highest mortality of any valve disease, with overall rates of in-hospital mortality exceeding 20%. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database was examined to develop a simple risk scoring system and identify areas for quality improvement. From 2002 through 2008, 19,543 operations were performed for infective endocarditis. Logistic regression analysis related baseline characteristics to both operative mortality and a composite of mortality and major morbidity within 30 days. Points were assigned to each risk factor, and estimated risk was obtained by averaging events for all patients having the same number of points. Overall unadjusted mortality was 8.2%, and complications occurred in 53%. Significant preoperative risk factors for mortality (associated points) were as follows: emergency, salvage status, or cardiogenic shock (17), preoperative hemodialysis, renal failure, or creatinine level less than 2.0 (12), preoperative inotropic or balloon pump support (10), active (vs treated) endocarditis (10), multiple valve involvement (9), insulin-dependent diabetes (8), arrhythmia (8), previous cardiac surgery (7), urgent status without cardiogenic shock (6), non-insulin-dependent diabetes (6), hypertension (5), and chronic lung disease (5), with a C statistic of 0.7578 (all P < .001). Risk-adjusted mortality and major morbidity were unchanged over the course of the study. In the entire data set, mortality was better if "any valve" was repaired (odds ratio = 0.76; P = .0023). Operative mortality for surgically treated infective endocarditis is substantially lower than reported in-hospital mortality rates for infective endocarditis. The described risk scoring system will inform clinical decision-making in these complex patients. Published by Mosby, Inc.

A Prognostic Model for One-year Mortality in Patients Requiring Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation

PubMed Central

Carson, Shannon S.; Garrett, Joanne; Hanson, Laura C.; Lanier, Joyce; Govert, Joe; Brake, Mary C.; Landucci, Dante L.; Cox, Christopher E.; Carey, Timothy S.

2009-01-01

Objective A measure that identifies patients who are at high risk of mortality after prolonged ventilation will help physicians communicate prognosis to patients or surrogate decision-makers. Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model for 1-year mortality in patients ventilated for 21 days or more. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting University-based tertiary care hospital Patients 300 consecutive medical, surgical, and trauma patients requiring mechanical ventilation for at least 21 days were prospectively enrolled. Measurements and Main Results Predictive variables were measured on day 21 of ventilation for the first 200 patients and entered into logistic regression models with 1-year and 3-month mortality as outcomes. Final models were validated using data from 100 subsequent patients. One-year mortality was 51% in the development set and 58% in the validation set. Independent predictors of mortality included requirement for vasopressors, hemodialysis, platelet count ≤150 ×109/L, and age ≥50. Areas under the ROC curve for the development model and validation model were 0.82 (se 0.03) and 0.82 (se 0.05) respectively. The model had sensitivity of 0.42 (se 0.12) and specificity of 0.99 (se 0.01) for identifying patients who had ≥90% risk of death at 1 year. Observed mortality was highly consistent with both 3- and 12-month predicted mortality. These four predictive variables can be used in a simple prognostic score that clearly identifies low risk patients (no risk factors, 15% mortality) and high risk patients (3 or 4 risk factors, 97% mortality). Conclusions Simple clinical variables measured on day 21 of mechanical ventilation can identify patients at highest and lowest risk of death from prolonged ventilation. PMID:18552692

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

PubMed Central

Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

2016-01-01

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

GT-repeat polymorphism in the heme oxygenase-1 gene promoter is associated with cardiovascular mortality risk in an arsenic-exposed population in northeastern Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Meei-Maan, E-mail: mmwu@tmu.edu.t; Graduate Institute of Oncology, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Basic Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu-Jen Catholic University, Taipei, Taiwan

2010-11-01

Inorganic arsenic has been associated with increased risk of atherosclerotic vascular disease and mortality in humans. A functional GT-repeat polymorphism in the heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) gene promoter is inversely correlated with the development of coronary artery disease and restenosis after clinical angioplasty. The relationship of HO-1 genotype with arsenic-associated cardiovascular disease has not been studied. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between the HO-1 GT-repeat polymorphism and cardiovascular mortality in an arsenic-exposed population. A total of 504 study participants were followed up for a median of 10.7 years for occurrence of cardiovascular deaths (coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, andmore » peripheral arterial disease). Cardiovascular risk factors and DNA samples for determination of HO-1 GT repeats were obtained at recruitment. GT repeats variants were grouped into the S (< 27 repeats) or L allele ({>=} 27 repeats). Relative mortality risk was estimated using Cox regression analysis, adjusted for competing risk of cancer and other causes. For the L/L, L/S, and S/S genotype groups, the crude mortalities for cardiovascular disease were 8.42, 3.10, and 2.85 cases/1000 person-years, respectively. After adjusting for conventional cardiovascular risk factors and competing risk of cancer and other causes, carriers with class S allele (L/S or S/S genotypes) had a significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to non-carriers (L/L genotype) [OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.16-0.90]. In contrast, no significant association was observed between HO-1 genotype and cancer mortality or mortality from other causes. Shorter (GT)n repeats in the HO-1 gene promoter may confer protective effects against cardiovascular mortality related to arsenic exposure.« less

Excess mortality among people who report lifetime use of illegal drugs in the United States: A 20-year follow-up of a nationally representative survey.

PubMed

Walker, Elizabeth Reisinger; Pratt, Laura A; Schoenborn, Charlotte A; Druss, Benjamin G

2017-02-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the mortality risks, over 20 years of follow-up in a nationally representative sample, associated with illegal drug use and to describe risk factors for mortality. We analyzed data from the 1991 National Health Interview Survey, which is a nationally representative household survey in the United States, linked to the National Death Index through 2011. This study included 20,498 adults, aged 18-44 years in 1991, with 1047 subsequent deaths. A composite variable of self-reported lifetime illegal drug use was created (hierarchical categories of heroin, cocaine, hallucinogens/inhalants, and marijuana use). Mortality risk was significantly elevated among individuals who reported lifetime use of heroin (HR=2.40, 95% CI: 1.65-3.48) and cocaine (HR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.04-1.55), but not for those who used hallucinogens/inhalants or marijuana, when adjusting for demographic characteristics. Baseline health risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, and BMI) explained the greatest amount of this mortality risk. After adjusting for all baseline covariates, the association between heroin or cocaine use and mortality approached significance. In models adjusted for demographics, people who reported lifetime use of heroin or cocaine had an elevated mortality risk due to external causes (poisoning, suicide, homicide, and unintentional injury). People who had used heroin, cocaine, or hallucinogens/inhalants had an elevated mortality risk due to infectious diseases. Heroin and cocaine are associated with considerable excess mortality, particularly due to external causes and infectious diseases. This association can be explained mainly by health risk behaviors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personality and mortality after myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Denollet, J; Sys, S U; Brutsaert, D L

1995-01-01

Previous research showed: a) emotional distress is a risk factor for mortality after myocardial infarction (MI) and b) emotional distress is linked to stable personality traits. In this study, we examined the role of these personality traits in mortality after MI. Subjects were 105 men, 45 to 60 years of age, who survived a recent MI. Baseline assessment included biomedical and psychosocial risk factors, as well as each patient's personality type. After 2 to 5 (mean, 3.8) years of follow-up, 15 patients (14%) had died. Rate of death for patients with a distressed personality type (11/28 = 39%) was significantly greater than that for patients with other personality types (4/77 = 5%) (p < .0001). Patients with this personality type tend simultaneously to experience distress and inhibit expression of emotions. Low exercise tolerance, previous MI (p < .005), anterior MI, smoking, and age (p < .05) were also associated with mortality. A logistic regression model including these biomedical factors had a sensitivity for mortality of only 27%. The addition of distressed personality type in this model more than doubled its sensitivity. Of note, among patients with poor physical health, those with a distressed personality type had a five-fold mortality risk (p < .005). Consistent with the findings of other investigators, depression (p < .005), life stress, use of benzodiazepines (p < .01), and somatization (p < .05) were also related to post-MI mortality. These psychosocial risk factors were more prevalent in the distressed personality type than in the other personality types (p < .001-.05). Multiple logistic regression indicated that these psychosocial factors did not add to the predictive value of the distressed personality type. Hence, an important personality effect was observed despite the low power. This suggests that personality traits may play a role in the detrimental effect of emotional distress in MI patients.

Self-esteem and Mortality: Prospective Evidence from a Population-based Study

PubMed Central

STAMATAKIS, KATHERINE A.; LYNCH, JOHN; EVERSON, SUSAN A.; RAGHUNATHAN, TRIVELLORE; SALONEN, JUKKA T.; KAPLAN, GEORGE A.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE Self-esteem is considered to be importantly associated with both psychosocial states such as depression as well as physical health. There are no population-based studies that examine the association between self-esteem and mortality. The objective of this study was to assess whether low self-esteem was prospectively associated with increased risk of death in a population-based sample of Finnish men. METHODS A sample of 2682 male residents of Kuopio, Finland were interviewed and followed prospectively as part of the Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study (KIHD). Characteristics of the KIHD sample at baseline included self-esteem, measured by the Rosenberg ten-item scale, socioeconomic factors, behavioral risk factors, other psychosocial characteristics, and prevalent diseases. Mortality was ascertained through linkage to the Finnish national death registry. We assessed the relationship between self-esteem and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS Low self-esteem was associated with a two-fold [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.3–3.2] increase in age-adjusted mortality. This relationship was partially explained by behavioral and socioeconomic factors, and prevalent diseases, and fully explained by other psychosocial characteristics (hopelessness, depression, cynical hostility, and sullenness). When adjusted for hopelessness alone there was no increased risk associated with low self-esteem (HR = 1.3, 95% CI = 0.8–2.2). CONCLUSIONS This study found no association between self-esteem and all-cause mortality after adjustment for other psychosocial characteristics, primarily hopelessness. Our understanding of the observed relationships between some psychosocial factors and mortality may be improved by simultaneous measurement of multiple psychosocial domains, thus diminishing the potential for residual confounding. PMID:14664781

Impact of carbapenem resistance on the outcome of patients' hospital-acquired bacteraemia caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae.

PubMed

Hussein, K; Raz-Pasteur, A; Finkelstein, R; Neuberger, A; Shachor-Meyouhas, Y; Oren, I; Kassis, I

2013-04-01

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, especially Klebsiella spp., have become a major health problem recently worldwide. Since 2006 the incidence of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infections has increased substantially in Israel. Bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by these strains have been associated with high rates of treatment failure and mortality. This study was designed to identify risk factors for carbapenem resistance among patients with healthcare-related (HCR) K. pneumoniae bacteraemia and predictors of mortality associated with HCR-CRKP bacteraemia compared with carbapenem-susceptible K. pneumoniae (CSKP). In this retrospective case-control study, all cases of K. pneumoniae bacteraemia during 2006-2008 were identified. Resistance patterns, underlying morbidities, risk factors for drug resistance and mortality rates were compared for patients with CRKP and CSKP bacteraemia. Two hundred and fourteen patients with CSKP bacteraemia were compared with 103 patients with CRKP bacteraemia. Severe, chronic comorbidities and prior antibiotic use were more frequent among patients with CRKP bacteraemia. On multivariate analysis prior use of macrolides and antibiotic exposure for ≥14 days remained the only independent factors associated with CRKP bacteraemia. Mortality rates of CRKP patients were significantly higher than those of CSKP patients. On multivariate analyses: bedridden status, chronic liver disease, Charlson comorbidity index ≥5, mechanical ventilation, and haemodialysis remained independently associated with mortality among patients with K. pneumoniae bacteraemia. Carbapenem resistance was not a risk factor for mortality. Previous antibiotic exposure is a risk factor for CRKP-BSI. Mortality among patients with K. pneumoniae bacteraemia is associated with serious comorbidities, but not with carbapenem resistance. Copyright © 2012 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patient selection for day case-eligible surgery: identifying those at high risk for major complications.

PubMed

Mathis, Michael R; Naughton, Norah N; Shanks, Amy M; Freundlich, Robert E; Pannucci, Christopher J; Chu, Yijia; Haus, Jason; Morris, Michelle; Kheterpal, Sachin

2013-12-01

Due to economic pressures and improvements in perioperative care, outpatient surgical procedures have become commonplace. However, risk factors for outpatient surgical morbidity and mortality remain unclear. There are no multicenter clinical data guiding patient selection for outpatient surgery. The authors hypothesize that specific risk factors increase the likelihood of day case-eligible surgical morbidity or mortality. The authors analyzed adults undergoing common day case-eligible surgical procedures by using the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2005 to 2010. Common day case-eligible surgical procedures were identified as the most common outpatient surgical Current Procedural Terminology codes provided by Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan and Medicare publications. Study variables included anthropometric data and relevant medical comorbidities. The primary outcome was morbidity or mortality within 72 h. Intraoperative complications included adverse cardiovascular events; postoperative complications included surgical, anesthetic, and medical adverse events. Of 244,397 surgeries studied, 232 (0.1%) experienced early perioperative morbidity or mortality. Seven independent risk factors were identified while controlling for surgical complexity: overweight body mass index, obese body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of transient ischemic attack/stroke, hypertension, previous cardiac surgical intervention, and prolonged operative time. The demonstrated low rate of perioperative morbidity and mortality confirms the safety of current day case-eligible surgeries. The authors obtained the first prospectively collected data identifying risk factors for morbidity and mortality with day case-eligible surgery. The results of the study provide new data to advance patient-selection processes for outpatient surgery.

Novel Risk Engine for Diabetes Progression and Mortality in USA: Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO).

PubMed

Shao, Hui; Fonseca, Vivian; Stoecker, Charles; Liu, Shuqian; Shi, Lizheng

2018-05-03

There is an urgent need to update diabetes prediction, which has relied on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) that dates back to 1970 s' European populations. The objective of this study was to develop a risk engine with multiple risk equations using a recent patient cohort with type 2 diabetes mellitus reflective of the US population. A total of 17 risk equations for predicting diabetes-related microvascular and macrovascular events, hypoglycemia, mortality, and progression of diabetes risk factors were estimated using the data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial (n = 10,251). Internal and external validation processes were used to assess performance of the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) risk engine. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of risk factors on mortality at the population level. The BRAVO risk engine added several risk factors including severe hypoglycemia and common US racial/ethnicity categories compared with the UKPDS risk engine. The BRAVO risk engine also modeled mortality escalation associated with intensive glycemic control (i.e., glycosylated hemoglobin < 6.5%). External validation showed a good prediction power on 28 endpoints observed from other clinical trials (slope = 1.071, R 2  = 0.86). The BRAVO risk engine for the US diabetes cohort provides an alternative to the UKPDS risk engine. It can be applied to assist clinical and policy decision making such as cost-effective resource allocation in USA.

Successful Endoscopic Hemostasis Is a Protective Factor for Rebleeding and Mortality in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Han, Yong Jae; Cha, Jae Myung; Park, Jae Hyun; Jeon, Jung Won; Shin, Hyun Phil; Joo, Kwang Ro; Lee, Joung Il

2016-07-01

Rebleeding and mortality rates remain high in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To identify clinical and endoscopic risk factors for rebleeding and mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. This study was performed in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding who underwent upper endoscopic procedures between July 2006 and February 2013. Clinical and endoscopic characteristics were compared among patients with and without rebleeding and mortality. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent risk factors for rebleeding and mortality. After excluding 64 patients, data for 689 patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding were analyzed. Peptic ulcer (62.6 %) was by far the most common source of bleeding. Endoscopic intervention was performed within 24 h in 99.0 % of patients, and successful endoscopic hemostasis was possible in 80.7 % of patients. The 30-day rebleeding rate was 13.1 % (n = 93). Unsuccessful endoscopic hemostasis was found to be the only independent risk factor for rebleeding (odds ratio 79.6; 95 % confidence interval 37.8-167.6; p = 0.000). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 3.2 % (n = 23). Unsuccessful endoscopic hemostasis (odds ratio 4.9; 95 % confidence interval 1.7-13.9; p = 0.003) was also associated with increased 30-day mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Successful endoscopic hemostasis is an independent protective factor for both rebleeding and mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Telomere length and mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study

PubMed Central

Pusceddu, Irene; Kleber, Marcus; Delgado, Graciela; Herrmann, Wolfgang; März, Winfried; Herrmann, Markus

2018-01-01

Introduction Short telomeres have been associated with adverse lifestyle factors, cardiovascular risk factors and age-related diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction, atherosclerosis, hypertension, diabetes, and also with mortality. However, previous studies report conflicting results. Objectives The aim of the present study has been to investigate the involvement of telomere length in all-cause and CVD mortality in subjects hospitalized for diagnostic coronary angiography of the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. Methods Relative telomere length (RTL) was measured with a Q-PCR based method in 3,316 participants of the LURIC study. Age-corrected RTL was calculated as the ratio between RTL and age. Median follow-up was 9.9 years. Cox regression and Kaplan-Maier analyses were performed to evaluate the role of RTL for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results RTL correlated negatively with age (r = -0.09; p<0.001). In surviving patients the correlation between age and RTL was statistically significant (r = -0.088; p<0.001), but not in patients who died during follow-up (r = -0.043; p = 0.20). Patients in quartiles 2–4 of RTL had a lower hazard ratio for all-cause mortality (HR:0.822; 95%CI 0.712–0.915; p = 0.008) and CVD-mortality (HR:0.836; 95%CI 0.722–0.969; p = 0.017) when compared to those in the 1st quartile. Adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors did not change this result, however additional adjustment for age attenuated this effect. Patients in the 4th quartile of age-corrected RTL compared to those in the 1st quartile had a lower hazard ratio for all-cause mortality, even with adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions The present study supports the hypothesis that short telomere length increases the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. Age appears to be an important co-variate that explains a substantial fraction of this effect. It remains unclear whether short telomeres contribute directly to the increase in mortality or if they are simply a surrogate marker for other adverse processes of aging. PMID:29920523

Morbidity and mortality risk among patients with screening-detected severe hypertension in the Malmö Preventive Project.

PubMed

Westerdahl, Christina; Zöller, Bengt; Arslan, Eren; Erdine, Serap; Nilsson, Peter M

2014-12-01

Screening of hypertension has been advocated for early detection and treatment. Severe hypertension (grade 3 hypertension) is a strong predictor for cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to evaluate not only the risk factors for developing severe hypertension, but also the prospective morbidity and mortality risk associated with severe hypertension in a population-based screening and intervention programme. In all, 18,200 individuals from a population-based cohort underwent a baseline examination in 1972-1992 and were re-examined in 2002-2006 in Malmö, Sweden. In total, 300 (1.6%) patients with severe hypertension were identified at re-examination, and predictive risk factors from baseline were calculated. Total and cause-specific morbidity and mortality were followed in national registers in all severe hypertension patients, as well as in age and sex-matched normotensive controls. Cox analyses for hazard ratios were used. Men developing severe hypertension differed from matched controls in baseline variables associated with the metabolic syndrome, as well as paternal history of hypertension (P < 0.001). Women with later severe hypertension were characterized by elevated BMI and a positive maternal history for hypertension at baseline. The risk of mortality, coronary events, stroke and diabetes during follow-up was higher among severe hypertension patients compared to controls. For coronary events, the risk remained elevated adjusted for other risk factors [hazard ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-4.40, P = 0.011]. Family history and variables associated with metabolic syndrome are predictors for severe hypertension after a long-term follow-up. Severe hypertension is associated with increased mortality, cardiovascular morbidity and incident diabetes in spite of treatment. This calls for improved risk factor control in patients with severe hypertension.

Clinical Utility of Five Genetic Variants for Predicting Prostate Cancer Risk and Mortality

PubMed Central

Salinas, Claudia A.; Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Kwon, Erika M.; FitzGerald, Liesel; Lin, Daniel W.; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Feng, Ziding; Stanford, Janet L.

2009-01-01

Background A recent report suggests that the combination of five single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 8q24, 17q12, 17q24.3 and a family history of the disease may predict risk of prostate cancer. The present study tests the performance of these factors in prediction models for prostate cancer risk and prostate cancer-specific mortality. Methods SNPs were genotyped in population-based samples from Caucasians in King County, Washington. Incident cases (n=1308), aged 35–74, were compared to age-matched controls (n=1266) using logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) associated with genotypes and family history. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios for prostate cancer-specific mortality according to genotypes. Results The combination of SNP genotypes and family history was significantly associated with prostate cancer risk (ptrend=1.5 × 10−20). Men with ≥ five risk factors had an OR of 4.9 (95% CI 1.6 to 18.5) compared to men with none. However, this combination of factors did not improve the ROC curve after accounting for known risk predictors (i.e., age, serum PSA, family history). Neither the individual nor combined risk factors was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality. Conclusion Genotypes for five SNPs plus family history are associated with a significant elevation in risk for prostate cancer and may explain up to 45% of prostate cancer in our population. However, they do not improve prediction models for assessing who is at risk of getting or dying from the disease, once known risk or prognostic factors are taken into account. Thus, this SNP panel may have limited clinical utility. PMID:19058137

Redo surgery risk in patients with cardiac prosthetic valve dysfunction

PubMed Central

Maciejewski, Marek; Piestrzeniewicz, Katarzyna; Bielecka-Dąbrowa, Agata; Piechowiak, Monika; Jaszewski, Ryszard

2011-01-01

Introduction The aim of the study was to analyse the risk factors of early and late mortality in patients undergoing the first reoperation for prosthetic valve dysfunction. Material and methods A retrospective observational study was performed in 194 consecutive patients (M = 75, F = 119; mean age 53.2 ±11 years) with a mechanical prosthetic valve (n = 103 cases; 53%) or bioprosthesis (91; 47%). Univariate and multivariate Cox statistical analysis was performed to determine risk factors of early and late mortality. Results The overall early mortality was 18.6%: 31.4% in patients with symptoms of NYHA functional class III-IV and 3.4% in pts in NYHA class I-II. Multivariate analysis identified symptoms of NYHA class III-IV and endocarditis as independent predictors of early mortality. The overall late mortality (> 30 days) was 8.2% (0.62% year/patient). Multivariate analysis identified age at the time of reoperation as a strong independent predictor of late mortality. Conclusions Reoperation in patients with prosthetic valves, performed urgently, especially in patients with symptoms of NYHA class III-IV or in the case of endocarditis, bears a high mortality rate. Risk of planned reoperation, mostly in patients with symptoms of NYHA class I-II, does not differ from the risk of the first operation. PMID:22291767

Cardiovascular risk across the histological spectrum and the clinical manifestations of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An update

PubMed Central

Athyros, Vasilios G; Tziomalos, Konstantinos; Katsiki, Niki; Doumas, Michael; Karagiannis, Asterios; Mikhailidis, Dimitri P

2015-01-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered to be an independent cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor. However, simple steatosis has a benign clinical course without excess mortality. In contrast, the advanced form of NAFLD, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with liver fibrosis increases mortality by approximately 70%, due to an increase in CVD mortality by approximately 300%. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) may be caused by NAFLD/NASH and it substantially increases CVD risk, especially in the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Moreover, CKD may trigger NAFLD/NASH deterioration in a vicious cycle. NAFLD/NASH is also related to increased arterial stiffness (AS), an independent CVD risk factor that further raises CVD risk. Diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis (mainly by simple non-invasive tests), CKD, and increased AS should be made early in the course of NAFLD and treated appropriately. Lifestyle measures and statin treatment may help resolve NAFLD/NASH and beneficially affect the CVD risk factors mentioned above. PMID:26078558

Current Epidemiology and Outcome of Infective Endocarditis

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Patricia; Kestler, Martha; De Alarcon, Arístides; Miro, José María; Bermejo, Javier; Rodríguez-Abella, Hugo; Fariñas, Maria Carmen; Cobo Belaustegui, Manuel; Mestres, Carlos; Llinares, Pedro; Goenaga, Miguel; Navas, Enrique; Oteo, José Antonio; Tarabini, Paola; Bouza, Emilio

2015-01-01

Abstract The aim of the study was to describe the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics and identify the risk factors of short-term and 1-year mortality in a recent cohort of patients with infective endocarditis (IE). From January 2008, multidisciplinary teams have prospectively collected all consecutive cases of IE, diagnosed according to the Duke criteria, in 25 Spanish hospitals. Overall, 1804 patients were diagnosed. The median age was 69 years (interquartile range, 55–77), 68.0% were men, and 37.1% of the cases were nosocomial or health care-related IE. Gram-positive microorganisms accounted for 79.3% of the episodes, followed by Gram-negative (5.2%), fungi (2.4%), anaerobes (0.9%), polymicrobial infections (1.9%), and unknown etiology (9.1%). Heart surgery was performed in 44.2%, and in-hospital mortality was 28.8%. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality were age, previous heart surgery, cerebrovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, Staphylococcus or Candida etiology, intracardiac complications, heart failure, and septic shock. The 1-year independent risk factors for mortality were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02), neoplasia (OR, 2.46), renal insufficiency (OR, 1.59), and heart failure (OR, 4.42). Surgery was an independent protective factor for 1-year mortality (OR, 0.44). IE remains a severe disease with a high rate of in-hospital (28.9%) and 1-year mortality (11.2%). Surgery was the only intervention that significantly reduced 1-year mortality. PMID:26512582

Current Epidemiology and Outcome of Infective Endocarditis: A Multicenter, Prospective, Cohort Study.

PubMed

Muñoz, Patricia; Kestler, Martha; De Alarcon, Arístides; Miro, José María; Bermejo, Javier; Rodríguez-Abella, Hugo; Fariñas, Maria Carmen; Cobo Belaustegui, Manuel; Mestres, Carlos; Llinares, Pedro; Goenaga, Miguel; Navas, Enrique; Oteo, José Antonio; Tarabini, Paola; Bouza, Emilio

2015-10-01

The aim of the study was to describe the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics and identify the risk factors of short-term and 1-year mortality in a recent cohort of patients with infective endocarditis (IE).From January 2008, multidisciplinary teams have prospectively collected all consecutive cases of IE, diagnosed according to the Duke criteria, in 25 Spanish hospitals.Overall, 1804 patients were diagnosed. The median age was 69 years (interquartile range, 55-77), 68.0% were men, and 37.1% of the cases were nosocomial or health care-related IE. Gram-positive microorganisms accounted for 79.3% of the episodes, followed by Gram-negative (5.2%), fungi (2.4%), anaerobes (0.9%), polymicrobial infections (1.9%), and unknown etiology (9.1%). Heart surgery was performed in 44.2%, and in-hospital mortality was 28.8%. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality were age, previous heart surgery, cerebrovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, Staphylococcus or Candida etiology, intracardiac complications, heart failure, and septic shock. The 1-year independent risk factors for mortality were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02), neoplasia (OR, 2.46), renal insufficiency (OR, 1.59), and heart failure (OR, 4.42). Surgery was an independent protective factor for 1-year mortality (OR, 0.44).IE remains a severe disease with a high rate of in-hospital (28.9%) and 1-year mortality (11.2%). Surgery was the only intervention that significantly reduced 1-year mortality.

The New York risk score for in-hospital and 30-day mortality for coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Wechsler, Andrew; Jordan, Desmond; Lahey, Stephen J; Culliford, Alfred T; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R

2013-01-01

Simplified risk scores for coronary artery bypass graft surgery are frequently in lieu of more complicated statistical models and are valuable for informed consent and choice of intervention. Previous risk scores have been based on in-hospital mortality, but a substantial number of patients die within 30 days of the procedure. These deaths should also be accounted for, so we have developed a risk score based on in-hospital and 30-day mortality. New York's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital and 30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 2009, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that provides estimated in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for different values of the score. The accuracy of the risk score in predicting mortality was tested. This score was also validated by applying it to 2008 New York coronary artery bypass graft data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the risk score to predict complications and length of stay. The overall in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for the 10,148 patients in the study was 1.79%. There are seven risk factors comprising the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 5, and the highest possible total score is 23. The score accurately predicted mortality in 2009 as well as in 2008, and was strongly correlated with complications and length of stay. The risk score is a simple way of estimating short-term mortality that accurately predicts mortality in the year the model was developed as well as in the previous year. Perioperative complications and length of stay are also well predicted by the risk score. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B

2013-06-01

This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. Methods The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Results Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Conclusion Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD. PMID:22958443

Usefulness of the addition of beta-2-microglobulin, cystatin C and C-reactive protein to an established risk factors model to improve mortality risk prediction in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

PubMed

Nead, Kevin T; Zhou, Margaret J; Caceres, Roxanne Diaz; Sharp, Stephen J; Wehner, Mackenzie R; Olin, Jeffrey W; Cooke, John P; Leeper, Nicholas J

2013-03-15

Evidence-based therapies are available to reduce the risk for death from cardiovascular disease, yet many patients go untreated. Novel methods are needed to identify those at highest risk for cardiovascular death. In this study, the biomarkers β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein were measured at baseline in a cohort of participants who underwent coronary angiography. Adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models were used to determine whether the biomarkers predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Additionally, improvements in risk reclassification and discrimination were evaluated by calculating the net reclassification improvement, C-index, and integrated discrimination improvement with the addition of the biomarkers to a baseline model of risk factors for cardiovascular disease and death. During a median follow-up period of 5.6 years, there were 78 deaths among 470 participants. All biomarkers independently predicted future all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A significant improvement in risk reclassification was observed for all-cause (net reclassification improvement 35.8%, p = 0.004) and cardiovascular (net reclassification improvement 61.9%, p = 0.008) mortality compared to the baseline risk factors model. Additionally, there was significantly increased risk discrimination with C-indexes of 0.777 (change in C-index 0.057, 95% confidence interval 0.016 to 0.097) and 0.826 (change in C-index 0.071, 95% confidence interval 0.010 to 0.133) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. Improvements in risk discrimination were further supported using the integrated discrimination improvement index. In conclusion, this study provides evidence that β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein predict mortality and improve risk reclassification and discrimination for a high-risk cohort of patients who undergo coronary angiography. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors - Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Little, Mark P; McElvenny, Damien M

2017-02-01

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors - differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223-229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151.

Occupational risks for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Pinheiro, Germania A; Antao, Vinicius C; Wood, John M; Wassell, James T

2008-01-01

Metal and wood dust exposures have been identified as possible occupational risk factors for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We analyzed mortality data using ICD-10 code J84.1--"Other interstitial pulmonary diseases with fibrosis," derived age-adjusted mortality rates for 1999-2003, and assessed occupational risks for 1999, by calculating proportionate mortality ratios (PMRs) and mortality odds ratios (MORs) using a matched case-control approach. We identified 84,010 IPF deaths, with an age-adjusted mortality rate of 75.7 deaths/million. Mortality rates were highest among males, whites, and those aged 85 and older. Three industry categories with potential occupational exposures recognized as risk factors for IPF were identified: "Wood buildings and mobile homes" (PMR = 4.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-11.6 and MOR = 5.3, 95% CI 1.2-23.8), "Metal mining" (PMR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.3-4.0 and MOR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.4), and "Fabricated structural metal products" (PMR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.1 and MOR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-3.1). Workers in these industry categories may benefit from toxicological studies and improved surveillance for this disease.

Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

PubMed

Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

2015-04-01

We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

Income differentials in functional disability in old age: relative risks of onset, recovery, decline, attrition and mortality.

PubMed

Broese van Groenou, Marjolein I; Deeg, Dorly J H; Penninx, Brenda W J H

2003-04-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) differences in health decline in late life may be underestimated, because the relatively higher risks of attrition of lower-SES persons are seldom taken into account. This longitudinal study aimed at comparing income differences in the course of disability, non-mortality attrition and mortality in older adults. A sample population of 3107 older adults who participated in the 1992/1993 baseline of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam was examined regarding changes in functional disability in 1998/1999. SES was indicated by household income. Multinomial regression analyses revealed that, for men without disability at baseline, the relative rate for attrition was four times higher and the mortality rate was twice as high for low-income vs high-income persons. For non-disabled women, the relative risk for the onset of disability was nearly twice as high for low-income vs high-income persons. For both men and women, these risks decreased only slightly when behavioral and psychosocial risk factors were taken into account. Among persons with disability at baseline, the relative risks for attrition (for women) and mortality (for men) were twice as high for low-income persons, but no income differences were found with respect to recovery and decline. Adjustment for risk factors decreased the relative risks for attrition and mortality to a non-significant level. Income inequality in health in late life is to a large degree explained by the higher incidence of disability among lower-status women and by the higher attrition and mortality risks among lower-status men.

Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2008-01-01

For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial factors are likely to become increasingly important. In general, models that fail to account for spatial pattern are at risk of failure as conditions change.

A critical analysis of early death after adult liver transplants.

PubMed

Rana, Abbas; Kaplan, Bruce; Jie, Tun; Porubsky, Marian; Habib, Shahid; Rilo, Horacio; Gruessner, Angelika C; Gruessner, Rainer W G

2013-01-01

The 15% mortality rate of liver transplant recipients at one yr may be viewed as a feat in comparison with the waiting list mortality, yet it nonetheless leaves room for much improvement. Our aim was to critically examine the mortality rates to identify high-risk periods and to incorporate cause of death into the analysis of post-transplant survival. We performed a retrospective analysis on United Network for Organ Sharing data for all adult recipients of liver transplants from January 1, 2002 to October 31, 2011. Our analysis included multivariate logistic regression where the primary outcome measure was patient death of 49,288 recipients. The highest mortality rate by day post-transplant was on day 0 (0.9%). The most significant risk factors were as follows: for one-d mortality from technical failure, intensive care unit admission odds ratio (OR 3.2); for one-d mortality from graft failure, warm ischemia >75 min (OR 5.6); for one-month mortality from infection, a previous transplant (OR 3.3); and for one-month mortality from graft failure, a previous transplant (OR 3.7). We found that the highest mortality rate after liver transplantation is within the first day and the first month post-transplant. Those two high-risk periods have common, as well as different, risk factors for mortality. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

The Association between Triglyceride/High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio and All-Cause Mortality in Acute Coronary Syndrome after Coronary Revascularization

PubMed Central

Wan, Ke; Zhao, Jianxun; Huang, Hao; Zhang, Qing; Chen, Xi; Zeng, Zhi; Zhang, Li; Chen, Yucheng

2015-01-01

Aims High triglycerides (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are cardiovascular risk factors. A positive correlation between elevated TG/HDL-C ratio and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events exists in women. However, utility of TG to HDL-C ratio for prediction is unknown among acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods Fasting lipid profiles, detailed demographic data, and clinical data were obtained at baseline from 416 patients with ACS after coronary revascularization. Subjects were stratified into three levels of TG/HDL-C. We constructed multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models for all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of 3 years using log TG to HDL-C ratio as a predictor variable and analyzing traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We constructed a logistic regression model for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) to prove that the TG/HDL-C ratio is a risk factor. Results The subject’s mean age was 64 ± 11 years; 54.5% were hypertensive, 21.8% diabetic, and 61.0% current or prior smokers. TG/HDL-C ratio ranged from 0.27 to 14.33. During the follow-up period, there were 43 deaths. In multivariate Cox models after adjusting for age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and severity of angiographic coronary disease, patients in the highest tertile of ACS had a 5.32-fold increased risk of mortality compared with the lowest tertile. After adjusting for conventional coronary heart disease risk factors by the logistic regression model, the TG/HDL-C ratio was associated with MACEs. Conclusion The TG to HDL-C ratio is a powerful independent predictor of all-cause mortality and is a risk factor of cardiovascular events. PMID:25880982

Socioeconomic status and the 25 × 25 risk factors as determinants of premature mortality: a multicohort study and meta-analysis of 1·7 million men and women.

PubMed

Stringhini, Silvia; Carmeli, Cristian; Jokela, Markus; Avendaño, Mauricio; Muennig, Peter; Guida, Florence; Ricceri, Fulvio; d'Errico, Angelo; Barros, Henrique; Bochud, Murielle; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Costa, Giuseppe; Delpierre, Cyrille; Fraga, Silvia; Goldberg, Marcel; Giles, Graham G; Krogh, Vittorio; Kelly-Irving, Michelle; Layte, Richard; Lasserre, Aurélie M; Marmot, Michael G; Preisig, Martin; Shipley, Martin J; Vollenweider, Peter; Zins, Marie; Kawachi, Ichiro; Steptoe, Andrew; Mackenbach, Johan P; Vineis, Paolo; Kivimäki, Mika

2017-03-25

In 2011, WHO member states signed up to the 25 × 25 initiative, a plan to cut mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 25% by 2025. However, socioeconomic factors influencing non-communicable diseases have not been included in the plan. In this study, we aimed to compare the contribution of socioeconomic status to mortality and years-of-life-lost with that of the 25 × 25 conventional risk factors. We did a multicohort study and meta-analysis with individual-level data from 48 independent prospective cohort studies with information about socioeconomic status, indexed by occupational position, 25 × 25 risk factors (high alcohol intake, physical inactivity, current smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity), and mortality, for a total population of 1 751 479 (54% women) from seven high-income WHO member countries. We estimated the association of socioeconomic status and the 25 × 25 risk factors with all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality by calculating minimally adjusted and mutually adjusted hazard ratios [HR] and 95% CIs. We also estimated the population attributable fraction and the years of life lost due to suboptimal risk factors. During 26·6 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 13·3 years [SD 6·4 years]), 310 277 participants died. HR for the 25 × 25 risk factors and mortality varied between 1·04 (95% CI 0·98-1·11) for obesity in men and 2 ·17 (2·06-2·29) for current smoking in men. Participants with low socioeconomic status had greater mortality compared with those with high socioeconomic status (HR 1·42, 95% CI 1·38-1·45 for men; 1·34, 1·28-1·39 for women); this association remained significant in mutually adjusted models that included the 25 × 25 factors (HR 1·26, 1·21-1·32, men and women combined). The population attributable fraction was highest for smoking, followed by physical inactivity then socioeconomic status. Low socioeconomic status was associated with a 2·1-year reduction in life expectancy between ages 40 and 85 years, the corresponding years-of-life-lost were 0·5 years for high alcohol intake, 0·7 years for obesity, 3·9 years for diabetes, 1·6 years for hypertension, 2·4 years for physical inactivity, and 4·8 years for current smoking. Socioeconomic circumstances, in addition to the 25 × 25 factors, should be targeted by local and global health strategies and health risk surveillance to reduce mortality. European Commission, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Swiss National Science Foundation, the Medical Research Council, NordForsk, Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The complex impact of risk and protective factors on suicide mortality: a study of the Ukrainian general population.

PubMed

Yur'yev, Andriy; Yur'yeva, Lyudmyla; Värnik, Peeter; Lumiste, Kaur; Värnik, Airi

2015-01-01

This study assesses the complex impact of risk and protective factors on suicide mortality in the Ukrainian general population. Data on suicide rates and socioeconomic and medical factors were obtained from the Ukrainian State Statistical Office, WHO, and the European Social Survey. Structural equation modeling was used for data analysis. Religion and education were negatively associated with suicide. The relationship between drug addiction/alcoholism and suicide was positive. The association between urbanization and suicide mortality was negative. The relationship between gross regional product (GRP) and female suicide was slightly negative. Religiosity was the protective factor most strongly linked with suicide mortality followed by urbanization. The harmful role of drug addiction and alcoholism was confirmed. The role of education and GRP is controversial. No striking gender differences were found.

Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

PubMed

Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-09-01

Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

Mortality After Pediatric Arterial Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Beslow, Lauren A; Dowling, Michael M; Hassanein, Sahar M A; Lynch, John K; Zafeiriou, Dimitrios; Sun, Lisa R; Kopyta, Ilona; Titomanlio, Luigi; Kolk, Anneli; Chan, Anthony; Biller, Jose; Grabowski, Eric F; Abdalla, Abdalla A; Mackay, Mark T; deVeber, Gabrielle

2018-05-01

Cerebrovascular disease is among the top 10 causes of death in US children, but risk factors for mortality are poorly understood. Within an international registry, we identify predictors of in-hospital mortality after pediatric arterial ischemic stroke (AIS). Neonates (0-28 days) and children (29 days-<19 years) with AIS were enrolled from January 2003 to July 2014 in a multinational stroke registry. Death during hospitalization and cause of death were ascertained from medical records. Logistic regression was used to analyze associations between risk factors and in-hospital mortality. Fourteen of 915 neonates (1.5%) and 70 of 2273 children (3.1%) died during hospitalization. Of 48 cases with reported causes of death, 31 (64.6%) were stroke-related, with remaining deaths attributed to medical disease. In multivariable analysis, congenital heart disease (odds ratio [OR]: 3.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-12.29; P = .021), posterior plus anterior circulation stroke (OR: 5.36; 95% CI: 1.70-16.85; P = .004), and stroke presentation without seizures (OR: 3.95; 95% CI: 1.26-12.37; P = .019) were associated with in-hospital mortality for neonates. Hispanic ethnicity (OR: 3.12; 95% CI: 1.56-6.24; P = .001), congenital heart disease (OR: 3.14; 95% CI: 1.75-5.61; P < .001), and posterior plus anterior circulation stroke (OR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.40-5.25; P = .003) were associated with in-hospital mortality for children. In-hospital mortality occurred in 2.6% of pediatric AIS cases. Most deaths were attributable to stroke. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality included congenital heart disease and posterior plus anterior circulation stroke. Presentation without seizures and Hispanic ethnicity were also associated with mortality for neonates and children, respectively. Awareness and study of risk factors for mortality represent opportunities to increase survival. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Quantifying policy options for reducing future coronary heart disease mortality in England: a modelling study.

PubMed

Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O'Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind

2013-01-01

To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies.

CVD and obesity in transitional Syria: a perspective from the Middle East

PubMed Central

Barakat, Hani; Barakat, Hanniya; Baaj, Mohamad K

2012-01-01

Purpose Syria is caught in the middle of a disruptive nutritional transition. Its healthcare system is distracted by challenges and successes in other areas while neglecting to address the onslaught of Syria’s cardiovascular disease (CVD) epidemic. Despite the official viewpoint touting improvement in health indicators, current trends jeopardize population health, and several surveys in the Syrian population signal the epidemic spreading far and wide. The goal is to counteract the indifference towards obesity as a threat to Syrian’s health, as the country is slowly becoming a leader in CVD mortality globally. Methods PubMed, World Health Organization, and official government websites were searched for primary surveys in Syria related to CVD morbidity, mortality, and risk factors. Inclusion criteria ensured that results maximized relevance while producing comparable studies. Statistical analysis was applied to detect the most common risk factor and significant differences in risk factor prevalence and CVD rates. Results Obesity remained the prevailing CVD risk factor except in older Syrian men, where smoking and hypertension were more common. CVD mortality was more common in males due to coronary disease, while stroke dominated female mortality. The young workforce is especially impacted, with 50% of CVD mortality occurring before age 65 years and an 81% prevalence of obesity in women over 45 years. Conclusion Syria can overcome its slow response to the CVD epidemic and curb further deterioration by reducing obesity and, thus, inheritance and clustering of risk factors. This can be achieved via multilayered awareness and intensive parental and familial involvement. Extinguishing the CVD epidemic is readily achievable as demonstrated in other countries. PMID:22454558

Quantifying Policy Options for Reducing Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England: A Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O’Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind

2013-01-01

Aims To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Methods and Results Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. Conclusions CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies. PMID:23936122

CVD and obesity in transitional Syria: a perspective from the Middle East.

PubMed

Barakat, Hani; Barakat, Hanniya; Baaj, Mohamad K

2012-01-01

Syria is caught in the middle of a disruptive nutritional transition. Its healthcare system is distracted by challenges and successes in other areas while neglecting to address the onslaught of Syria's cardiovascular disease (CVD) epidemic. Despite the official viewpoint touting improvement in health indicators, current trends jeopardize population health, and several surveys in the Syrian population signal the epidemic spreading far and wide. The goal is to counteract the indifference towards obesity as a threat to Syrian's health, as the country is slowly becoming a leader in CVD mortality globally. PubMed, World Health Organization, and official government websites were searched for primary surveys in Syria related to CVD morbidity, mortality, and risk factors. Inclusion criteria ensured that results maximized relevance while producing comparable studies. Statistical analysis was applied to detect the most common risk factor and significant differences in risk factor prevalence and CVD rates. Obesity remained the prevailing CVD risk factor except in older Syrian men, where smoking and hypertension were more common. CVD mortality was more common in males due to coronary disease, while stroke dominated female mortality. The young workforce is especially impacted, with 50% of CVD mortality occurring before age 65 years and an 81% prevalence of obesity in women over 45 years. Syria can overcome its slow response to the CVD epidemic and curb further deterioration by reducing obesity and, thus, inheritance and clustering of risk factors. This can be achieved via multilayered awareness and intensive parental and familial involvement. Extinguishing the CVD epidemic is readily achievable as demonstrated in other countries.

Metabolic acidosis as a risk factor for the development of acute kidney injury and hospital mortality.

PubMed

Hu, Jiachang; Wang, Yimei; Geng, Xuemei; Chen, Rongyi; Xu, Xialian; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Lin, Jing; Teng, Jie; Ding, Xiaoqiang

2017-05-01

Metabolic acidosis has been proved to be a risk factor for the progression of chronic kidney disease, but its relation to acute kidney injury (AKI) has not been investigated. In general, a diagnosis of metabolic acidosis is based on arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis, but the diagnostic role of carbon dioxide combining power (CO 2 CP) in the venous blood may also be valuable to non-respiratory patients. This retrospective study included all adult non-respiratory patients admitted consecutively to our hospital between October 01, 2014 and September 30, 2015. A total of 71,089 non-respiratory patients were included, and only 4,873 patients were evaluated by ABG analysis at admission. In patients with ABG, acidosis, metabolic acidosis, decreased HCO 3 - and hypocapnia at admission was associated with the development of AKI, while acidosis and hypocapnia were independent predictors of hospital mortality. Among non-respiratory patients, decreased CO 2 CP at admission was an independent risk factor for AKI and hospital mortality. ROC curves indicated that CO 2 CP was a reasonable biomarker to exclude metabolic acidosis, dual and triple acid-base disturbances. The effect sizes of decreased CO 2 CP on AKI and hospital mortality varied according to age and different underlying diseases. Metabolic acidosis is an independent risk factor for the development of AKI and hospital mortality. In non-respiratory patient, decreased CO 2 CP is also an independent contributor to AKI and mortality and can be used as an indicator of metabolic acidosis.

Inclusion of Functional Status Measures in the Risk Adjustment of 30-Day Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT Registry.

PubMed

Arnold, Suzanne V; O'Brien, Sean M; Vemulapalli, Sreekanth; Cohen, David J; Stebbins, Amanda; Brennan, J Matthew; Shahian, David M; Grover, Fred L; Holmes, David R; Thourani, Vinod H; Peterson, Eric D; Edwards, Fred H

2018-03-26

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) that accounted for both standard clinical factors and pre-procedural health status and frailty. Assessment of risk for TAVR is important both for patient selection and provider comparisons. Prior efforts for risk adjustment have focused on in-hospital mortality, which is easily obtainable but can be biased because of early discharge of ill patients. Using data from patients who underwent TAVR as part of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry (June 2013 to May 2016), a hierarchical logistic regression model to estimate risk for 30-day mortality after TAVR based only on pre-procedural factors and access site was developed and internally validated. The model included factors from the original TVT Registry in-hospital mortality model but added the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (health status) and gait speed (5-m walk test). Among 21,661 TAVR patients at 188 sites, 1,025 (4.7%) died within 30 days. Independent predictors of 30-day death included older age, low body weight, worse renal function, peripheral artery disease, home oxygen, prior myocardial infarction, left main coronary artery disease, tricuspid regurgitation, nonfemoral access, worse baseline health status, and inability to walk. The predicted 30-day mortality risk ranged from 1.1% (lowest decile of risk) to 13.8% (highest decile of risk). The model was able to stratify risk on the basis of patient factors with good discrimination (C = 0.71 [derivation], C = 0.70 [split-sample validation]) and excellent calibration, both overall and in key patient subgroups. A clinical risk model was developed for 30-day death after TAVR that included clinical data as well as health status and frailty. This model will facilitate tracking outcomes over time as TAVR expands to lower risk patients and to less experienced sites and will allow an objective comparison of short-term mortality rates across centers. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

C-reactive protein concentration and risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kaptoge, Stephen; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Lowe, Gordon; Pepys, Mark B; Thompson, Simon G; Collins, Rory; Danesh, John

2010-01-09

Associations of C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration with risk of major diseases can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. We assessed the associations of CRP concentration with risk of vascular and non-vascular outcomes under different circumstances. We meta-analysed individual records of 160 309 people without a history of vascular disease (ie, 1.31 million person-years at risk, 27 769 fatal or non-fatal disease outcomes) from 54 long-term prospective studies. Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation in risk factor levels. Log(e) CRP concentration was linearly associated with several conventional risk factors and inflammatory markers, and nearly log-linearly with the risk of ischaemic vascular disease and non-vascular mortality. Risk ratios (RRs) for coronary heart disease per 1-SD higher log(e) CRP concentration (three-fold higher) were 1.63 (95% CI 1.51-1.76) when initially adjusted for age and sex only, and 1.37 (1.27-1.48) when adjusted further for conventional risk factors; 1.44 (1.32-1.57) and 1.27 (1.15-1.40) for ischaemic stroke; 1.71 (1.53-1.91) and 1.55 (1.37-1.76) for vascular mortality; and 1.55 (1.41-1.69) and 1.54 (1.40-1.68) for non-vascular mortality. RRs were largely unchanged after exclusion of smokers or initial follow-up. After further adjustment for fibrinogen, the corresponding RRs were 1.23 (1.07-1.42) for coronary heart disease; 1.32 (1.18-1.49) for ischaemic stroke; 1.34 (1.18-1.52) for vascular mortality; and 1.34 (1.20-1.50) for non-vascular mortality. CRP concentration has continuous associations with the risk of coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, vascular mortality, and death from several cancers and lung disease that are each of broadly similar size. The relevance of CRP to such a range of disorders is unclear. Associations with ischaemic vascular disease depend considerably on conventional risk factors and other markers of inflammation. British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, BUPA Foundation, and GlaxoSmithKline. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Psychosis, cardiovascular risk and associated mortality: are we on the right track?].

PubMed

Castillo Sánchez, Miguel; Fàbregas Escurriola, Mireia; Bergè Baquero, Daniel; Goday Arno, Albert; Vallès Callol, Joan Antoni

2014-01-01

Patients with psychotic disorders have a higher risk of early mortality. In addition to unnatural causes (accidents, suicide), death due to cardiovascular (CV) reasons is two to four times more prevalent in these patients than in the general population. This non-systematic review of MEDLINE aims to clarify the role of all the determining factors are involved. Psychotic disorders are related to unhealthy life habits such as smoking, poor diet and physical inactivity. Neuroleptic drugs have also been studied as triggers of obesity and metabolic syndrome. Therefore, psychotic patients seem predisposed to suffer from several of the «classic» CV risk factors. It is not surprising that their scores on the CV risk scales (Framingham, SCORE) are higher than the general population. We also found publications that showed poorer management of primary and secondary prevention of CV disease. In addition, some biochemical factors (plasma levels of cortisol, ACTH, homocysteine, PCR) may indicate a vulnerability in psychosis per se, as well as the findings on hyperglycemia and insulin resistance in psychotic "drug naive" patients. These "non-classical" factors could alter the validity of CV risk scales designed for the general population. Furthermore, antipsychotic drugs could control intrinsic factors of psychosis (they have shown to reduce global mortality), and their role in CV mortality is not clear. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. y SEA. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for on-farm mortality in beef suckler cows under extensive keeping management.

PubMed

Mõtus, Kerli; Emanuelson, Ulf

2017-08-01

The on-farm mortality of cows in cow-calf herds has a significant influence on the economic efficiency of the farm. It is also an indicator of suboptimal animal health and welfare. The present study analysed the registry data of beef cows in Estonia from the years 2013 to 2015. The datasets incorporated 8084 parturitions of primiparous cows and 21,283 parturitions of 9234 multiparous cows. A Weibull proportional hazard random effect model was used for risk factor analysis, in which the on-farm mortality, including death and euthanasia, was the event of interest. The first 30days post-calving were associated with the highest mortality hazard for primiparous and multiparous cows (including 28.9% and 21.1% of deaths, respectively). In multiparous cows, the lowest mortality hazard was confirmed for animals with parity of three to five, increasing significantly after that. Primiparous cows that did not have a stillborn calf had a significantly higher mortality hazard when calving over 44months of age compared to cows calving younger than 36months. Stillbirth and abortion were significant risk factors for mortality. Cows with dystocia experienced a higher mortality hazard, especially during the first week post-calving. In multiparous cows, a higher herd mean age at first calving was associated with a higher mortality hazard. This study highlights the fact that the early post-partum period and factors associated with calving, such as age at first calving, dystocia, stillbirth and abortion, are critical for beef cow survival. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent work-related impairment.

PubMed

Scott-Marshall, Heather K; Tompa, Emile; Wang, Ying; Liao, Qing

2014-07-11

Recent estimates indicate that at least one in five activity-limiting injuries occurs at work. Of individuals who suffer these injuries approximately 10% experience some degree of functional impairment. We were interested in investigating long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent impairment from work injury and to examine whether work disability is a significant explanatory factor. We used a retrospective matched cohort methodology to examine differences in mortality rates between individuals with permanent impairment from a work injury and a group of non-injured controls over a 19-year period. We used a sample of impaired workers to investigate the impact of work disability on mortality risk using percentage of earnings recovery after injury as the key proxy measure. All analyses were stratified by sex. Permanent impairment from a work injury was predictive of premature mortality in both male and female claimants, though the risk was slightly higher among women. Work disability was a key explanatory factor in the rate of death among impaired workers, the effects being more pronounced in men. We also found that higher impairment level was associated with mortality in men but not in women. The study demonstrates the impact of permanent work-related impairment on longevity and identifies work disability as an important determinant of mortality risk. Given the disconnect between impairment ratings derived from standard diagnostic tools and labour-market activity after accident, more research is needed on the specific factors that contribute to work disability, particularly those related to psycho-social health and well-being.

A Risk Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Suspected Myocarditis

PubMed Central

Xu, Duo; Zhao, Ruo-Chi; Gao, Wen-Hui; Cui, Han-Bin

2017-01-01

Background: Myocarditis is an inflammatory disease of the myocardium that may lead to cardiac death in some patients. However, little is known about the predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis by establishing a risk prediction model. Methods: A retrospective study was performed to analyze the clinical medical records of 403 consecutive patients with suspected myocarditis who were admitted to Ningbo First Hospital between January 2003 and December 2013. A total of 238 males (59%) and 165 females (41%) were enrolled in this study. We divided the above patients into two subgroups (survival and nonsurvival), according to their clinical in-hospital outcomes. To maximize the effectiveness of the prediction model, we first identified the potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected myocarditis, based on data pertaining to previously established risk factors and basic patient characteristics. We subsequently established a regression model for predicting in-hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Finally, we identified the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality using our risk prediction model. Results: The following prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis, including creatinine clearance rate (Ccr), age, ventricular tachycardia (VT), New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, gender and cardiac troponin T (cTnT), was established in the study: P = ea/(1 + ea) (where e is the exponential function, P is the probability of in-hospital death, and a = −7.34 + 2.99 × [Ccr <60 ml/min = 1, Ccr ≥60 ml/min = 0] + 2.01 × [age ≥50 years = 1, age <50 years = 0] + 1.93 × [VT = 1, no VT = 0] + 1.39 × [NYHA ≥3 = 1, NYHA <3 = 0] + 1.25 × [male = 1, female = 0] + 1.13 × [cTnT ≥50 μg/L = 1, cTnT <50 μg/L = 0]). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.96 (standard error = 0.015, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-0.99). The model demonstrated that a Ccr <60 ml/min (odds ratio [OR] = 19.94, 95% CI: 5.66–70.26), an age ≥50 years (OR = 7.43, 95% CI: 2.18–25.34), VT (OR = 6.89, 95% CI: 1.86–25.44), a NYHA classification ≥3 (OR = 4.03, 95% CI: 1.13–14.32), male gender (OR = 3.48, 95% CI: 0.99–12.20), and a cTnT level ≥50 μg/L (OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 0.91–10.62) were the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: A Ccr <60 ml/min, an age ≥50 years, VT, an NYHA classification ≥3, male gender, and a cTnT level ≥50 μg/L were the independent risk factors resulting from the prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. In addition, sufficient life support during the early stage of the disease might improve the prognoses of patients with suspected myocarditis with multiple risk factors for in-hospital mortality. PMID:28345541

Hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes compared: stroke severity, mortality, and risk factors.

PubMed

Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Kammersgaard, Lars Peter

2009-06-01

Stroke patients with hemorrhagic (HS) and ischemic strokes were compared with regard to stroke severity, mortality, and cardiovascular risk factors. A registry started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, now holds information for 39,484 patients. The patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity (Scandinavian Stroke Scale), CT, and cardiovascular risk factors. They were followed-up from admission until death or censoring in 2007. Independent predictors of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 25,123 individuals with a complete data set. Of the patients 3993 (10.1%) had HS. Stroke severity was almost linearly related to the probability of having HS (2% in patients with the mildest stroke and 30% in those with the most severe strokes). Factors favoring ischemic strokes vs HS were diabetes, atrial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, and intermittent arterial claudication. Smoking and alcohol consumption favored HS, whereas age, sex, and hypertension did not herald stroke type. Compared with ischemic strokes, HS was associated with an overall higher mortality risk (HR, 1.564; 95% CI, 1.441-1.696). The increased risk was, however, time-dependent; initially, risk was 4-fold, after 1 week it was 2.5-fold, and after 3 weeks it was 1.5-fold. After 3 months stroke type did not correlate to mortality. Strokes are generally more severe in patients with HS. Within the first 3 months after stroke, HS is associated with a considerable increase of mortality, which is specifically associated with the hemorrhagic nature of the lesion.

A systematic review of risk factors for neonatal mortality in adolescent mother's in Sub Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Ramaiya, Astha; Kiss, Ligia; Baraitser, Paula; Mbaruku, Godfrey; Hildon, Zoe

2014-10-23

Worldwide, approximately 14 million mothers aged 15 - 19 years give birth annually. The number of teenage births in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is particularly high with an estimated 50% of mothers under the age of 20. Adolescent mothers have a significantly higher risk of neonatal mortality in comparison to adults. The objective of this review was to compare perinatal/neonatal mortality in Sub Saharan Africa and it's associated risk factors between adolescents and adults. We systematically searched six databases to determine risk factors for perinatal/neonatal mortality, and pregnancy outcomes, between adolescent and adults in SSA. Article's quality was assessed and synthesized as a narrative. Being single and having a single parent household is more prevalent amongst adolescents than adults. Nearly all the adolescent mothers (97%) were raised in single parent households. These single life factors could be interconnected and catalyze other risky behaviors. Accordingly, having co-morbidities such as Sexually Transmitted Infections, or not going to school was more prevalent in younger mothers. Inter-generational support for single mothers in SSA communities appears essential in preventing both early pregnancies and ensuring healthy outcomes when they occur during adolescence. Future studies should test related hypothesis and seek to unpack the processes that underpin the relationships between being single and other risk indicators for neonatal mortality in young mothers. Current policy initiatives should account for the context of single African women's lives, low opportunity, status and little access to supportive relationships, or practical help.

Cancer mortality disparities among New York City's Upper Manhattan neighborhoods.

PubMed

Hashim, Dana; Manczuk, Marta; Holcombe, Randall; Lucchini, Roberto; Boffetta, Paolo

2017-11-01

The East Harlem (EH), Central Harlem (CH), and Upper East Side (UES) neighborhoods of New York City are geographically contiguous to tertiary medical care, but are characterized by cancer mortality rate disparities. This ecological study aims to disentangle the effects of race and neighborhood on cancer deaths. Mortality-to-incidence ratios were determined using neighborhood-specific data from the New York State Cancer Registry and Vital Records Office (2007-2011). Ecological data on modifiable cancer risk factors from the New York City Community Health Survey (2002-2006) were stratified by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood and modeled against stratified mortality rates to disentangle race/ethnicity and neighborhood using logistic regression. Significant gaps in mortality rates were observed between the UES and both CH and EH across all cancers, favoring UES. Mortality-to-incidence ratios of both CH and EH were similarly elevated in the range of 0.41-0.44 compared with UES (0.26-0.30). After covariate and multivariable adjustment, black race (odds ratio=1.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.46-1.93) and EH residence (odds ratio=1.20; 95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.35) remained significant risk factors in all cancers' combined mortality. Mortality disparities remain among EH, CH, and UES neighborhoods. Both neighborhood and race are significantly associated with cancer mortality, independent of each other. Multivariable adjusted models that include Community Health Survey risk factors show that this mortality gap may be avoidable through community-based public health interventions.

Sepsis-Related Mortality of Very Low Birth Weight Brazilian Infants: The Role of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

PubMed Central

Pereira, Sylvia Maria Porto; Cardoso, Maria Helena Cabral de Almeida; Figuexeds, Ana Lucia; Mattos, Haroldo; Rozembaum, Ronaldo; Ferreira, Vanessa Isidoro; Portinho, Maria Antonieta; Gonçalves, Ana Cristina; da Costa, Elaine Sobral

2009-01-01

The aim of this study is to identify risk factors for sepsis-related mortality in low birth weight (<1500 g) infants. We performed retrospective cohort study to investigate risk factors for sepsis-related mortality in all neonates birth weight <1500 g admitted to Level III neonatal intensive care unit, Brazil, April 2001/September 2004. Of the 203 cases, 71 (35%) had sepsis. Of those, gram-positive was identified in 52/87 blood cultures (59.8%), the most common Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (31/87; 35.5%). Gram-negative was present in 29 of the 87 positive blood cultures (33.3%), with Pseudomonas aeruginosa (8/87; 9.1%), the most frequent agent. Overall 21 of 71 infants with sepsis (29.6%) died. Risk factors for sepsis-related mortality were gestational age ≤28 weeks, birth weight ≤1000 g (9.6 times more often than birth weight >1000 g), five-minute Apgar ≤7, gram-negative sepsis, mechanical ventilation (6.7 times higher than no use), and intravascular catheter. Sepsis-related mortality was due, mainly, to Pseudomonas aeruginosa; birth weight ≤1000 g and mechanical ventilation were strong sepsis-related mortality predictors. PMID:20182631

Does IQ explain socio-economic differentials in total and cardiovascular disease mortality? Comparison with the explanatory power of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Vietnam Experience Study.

PubMed

Batty, G David; Shipley, Martin J; Dundas, Ruth; Macintyre, Sally; Der, Geoff; Mortensen, Laust H; Deary, Ian J

2009-08-01

The aim of this study was to examine the explanatory power of intelligence (IQ) compared with traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in the relationship of socio-economic disadvantage with total and CVD mortality, that is the extent to which IQ may account for the variance in this well-documented association. Cohort study of 4289 US male former military personnel with data on four widely used markers of socio-economic position (early adulthood and current income, occupational prestige, and education), IQ test scores (early adulthood and middle-age), a range of nine established CVD risk factors (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total blood cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, body mass index, smoking, blood glucose, resting heart rate, and forced expiratory volume in 1 s), and later mortality. We used the relative index of inequality (RII) to quantify the relation between each index of socio-economic position and mortality. Fifteen years of mortality surveillance gave rise to 237 deaths (62 from CVD and 175 from 'other' causes). In age-adjusted analyses, as expected, each of the four indices of socio-economic position was inversely associated with total, CVD, and 'other' causes of mortality, such that elevated rates were evident in the most socio-economically disadvantaged men. When IQ in middle-age was introduced to the age-adjusted model, there was marked attenuation in the RII across the socio-economic predictors for total mortality (average 50% attenuation in RII), CVD (55%), and 'other' causes of death (49%). When the nine traditional risk factors were added to the age-adjusted model, the comparable reduction in RII was less marked than that seen after IQ adjustment: all-causes (40%), CVD (40%), and 'other' mortality (43%). Adding IQ to the latter model resulted in marked, additional explanatory power for all outcomes in comparison to the age-adjusted analyses: all-causes (63%), CVD (63%), and 'other' mortality (65%). When we utilized IQ in early adulthood rather than middle-age as an explanatory variable, the attenuating effect on the socio-economic gradient was less pronounced although the same pattern was still present. In the present analyses of socio-economic gradients in total and CVD mortality, IQ appeared to offer greater explanatory power than that apparent for traditional CVD risk factors.

Race Matters: Analyzing the Relationship between Colorectal Cancer Mortality Rates and Various Factors within Respective Racial Groups.

PubMed

Veach, Emma; Xique, Ismael; Johnson, Jada; Lyle, Jessica; Almodovar, Israel; Sellers, Kimberly F; Moore, Calandra T; Jackson, Monica C

2014-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cause of mortality due to cancer (with over 50,000 deaths annually), representing 9% of all cancer deaths in the United States (1). In particular, the African-American CRC mortality rate is among the highest reported for any race/ethnic group. Meanwhile, the CRC mortality rate for Hispanics is 15-19% lower than that for non-Hispanic Caucasians (2). While factors such as obesity, age, and socio-economic status are known to associate with CRC mortality, do these and other potential factors correlate with CRC death in the same way across races? This research linked CRC mortality data obtained from the National Cancer Institute with data from the United States Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Solar Radiation Database to examine geographic and racial/ethnic differences, and develop a spatial regression model that adjusted for several factors that may attribute to health disparities among ethnic/racial groups. This analysis showed that sunlight, obesity, and socio-economic status were significant predictors of CRC mortality. The study is significant because it not only verifies known factors associated with the risk of CRC death but, more importantly, demonstrates how these factors vary within different racial groups. Accordingly, education on reducing risk factors for CRC should be directed at specific racial groups above and beyond creating a generalized education plan.

Impact of Individual and Neighborhood Factors on Cardiovascular Risk in White Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Women and Men.

PubMed

Cohn, Tanya; Miller, Arlene; Fogg, Louis; Braun, Lynne T; Coke, Lola

2017-04-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality for adults in the US, regardless of ethnicity. A cross-sectional correlational design was used to describe and compare CVD risk and cardiac mortality in White Hispanic and non-Hispanic women and men. Data from 3,317 individuals (1,523 women and 1,794 men) hospitalized for non-cardiac causes during 2012-2013, and data from the 2010 United States Census were included. The sex-specific 10-year Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score (FRS-10) was used to estimate long-term risk for major cardiac events. Approximately three-quarters of the sample was White Hispanic. FRS-10 scores were generally low, but a high prevalence of risk factors not included in the standard FRS-10 scoring formula was seen. White Hispanic women had significantly lower estimated CVD risk scores compared to White Hispanic and non-Hispanic men despite higher non-FRS-10 risks. Neighborhood median household income had a significant negative relationship and Hispanic neighborhood concentration had a significant positive relationship with cardiac mortality. Hispanic concentration was the only predictor of estimated CVD risk in a multilevel model. CVD risk assessment tools that are calibrated for ethnic groups and socioeconomic status may be more appropriate for Hispanic individuals than the FRS-10. Neighborhood-level factors should be included in clinical cardiac assessment in addition to individual characteristics and behavioral risks. Researchers should continue to seek additional risk factors that may contribute to or protect against CVD in order to close the gap between estimated CVD risk and actual cardiac mortality for Hispanics in the US. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to medical interventions: do they reflect inequalities in access or quality of health care?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Previous studies have reported large socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention, but it is unclear whether these can be attributed to inequalities in access or quality of health care, or to confounding influences such as inequalities in background risk of diseases. We therefore studied whether inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention vary between countries in patterns which differ from those observed for other (non-amenable) causes of death. More specifically, we hypothesized that, as compared to non-amenable causes, inequalities in mortality from amenable causes are more strongly associated with inequalities in health care use and less strongly with inequalities in common risk factors for disease such as smoking. Methods Cause-specific mortality data for people aged 30–74 years were obtained for 14 countries, and were analysed by calculating age-standardized mortality rates and relative risks comparing a lower with a higher educational group. Survey data on health care use and behavioural risk factors for people aged 30–74 years were obtained for 12 countries, and were analysed by calculating age-and sex-adjusted odds ratios comparing a low with a higher educational group. Patterns of association were explored by calculating correlation coefficients. Results In most countries and for most amenable causes of death substantial inequalities in mortality were observed, but inequalities in mortality from amenable causes did not vary between countries in patterns that are different from those seen for inequalities in non-amenable mortality. As compared to non-amenable causes, inequalities in mortality from amenable causes are not more strongly associated with inequalities in health care use. Inequalities in mortality from amenable causes are also not less strongly associated with common risk factors such as smoking. Conclusions We did not find evidence that inequalities in mortality from amenable conditions are related to inequalities in access or quality of health care. Further research is needed to find the causes of socio-economic inequalities in mortality from amenable conditions, and caution should be exercised in interpreting these inequalities as indicating health care deficiencies. PMID:22578154

Reduced 30-Day Mortality After Laparoscopic Colorectal Cancer Surgery: A Population Based Study From the Dutch Surgical Colorectal Audit (DSCA).

PubMed

Gietelink, Lieke; Wouters, Michel W J M; Bemelman, Willem A; Dekker, Jan Willem; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Tanis, Pieter J

2016-07-01

To evaluate the impact of a laparoscopic resection on postoperative mortality after colorectal cancer surgery. The question whether laparoscopic resection (LR) compared with open surgery [open resection (OR)] for colorectal cancer influences the risk of postoperative mortality remains unresolved. Several meta-analyses showed a trend but failed to reach statistical significance. The exclusion of high-risk patients and insufficient power might be responsible for that. We analyzed the influence of LR on postoperative mortality in a risk-stratified comparison and secondly, we studied the effect of LR on postoperative morbidity. Data from the Dutch Surgical Colorectal Audit (2010-2013) were used. Homogenous subgroups of patients were defined on the basis of factors influencing the choice of surgical approach and risk factors for postoperative mortality. Crude mortality rates were compared between LR and OR. The influence of LR on postoperative complications was evaluated using both univariable and multivariable analyses. In patients undergoing elective surgery for nonlocally advanced, nonmetastasized colon cancer, LR was associated with a significant lower risk of postoperative mortality than OR in 20/22 subgroups. LR was independently associated with a lower risk of cardiac (odds ratio: 0.73, 95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.82) and respiratory (odds ratio: 0.73, 95% confidence interval: 0.64-0.84) complications. LR reduces the risk of postoperative mortality compared with OR in elective setting in patients with nonlocally advanced, nonmetastasized colorectal cancer. Especially elderly frail patients seem to benefit because of reduced cardiopulmonary complications. These findings support widespread implementation of LR for colorectal cancer also in patients at high operative risk.

Comparing the mortality risks of nursing professionals with diabetes and general patients with diabetes: a nationwide matched cohort study.

PubMed

Huang, Hsiu-Ling; Kung, Chuan-Yu; Pan, Cheng-Chin; Kung, Pei-Tseng; Wang, Shun-Mu; Chou, Wen-Yu; Tsai, Wen-Chen

2016-10-06

Nursing professionals have received comprehensive medical education and training. However, whether these medical professionals exhibit positive patient care attitudes and behaviors and thus reduce mortality risks when they themselves are diagnosed with chronic diseases is worth exploring. This study compared the mortality risks of female nurses and general patients with diabetes and elucidated factors that caused this difference. A total of 510,058 female patients newly diagnosed with diabetes between 1998 and 2006 as recorded in the National Health Insurance Research Database were the participants in this study. Nurses with diabetes and general population with diabetes were matched with propensity score method in a 1:10 ratio. The participants were tracked from the date of diagnosis to 2009. The Cox proportional hazards model was utilized to compare the mortality risks in the two groups. Nurses were newly diagnosed with diabetes at a younger age compared with the general public (42.01 ± 12.03 y vs. 59.29 ± 13.11 y). Nevertheless, the matching results showed that nurses had lower mortality risks (HR: 0.53, 95 % CI: 0.38-0.74) and nurses with diabetes in the < 35 and 35-44 age groups exhibited significantly lower mortality risks compared with general patients (HR: 0.23 and 0.36). A further analysis indicated that the factors that influenced the mortality risks of nurses with diabetes included age, catastrophic illnesses, and the severity of diabetes complications. Nurses with diabetes exhibited lower mortality risks possibly because they had received comprehensive medical education and training, may had more knowledge regarding chronic disease control and change their lifestyles. The results can serve as a reference for developing heath education, and for preventing occupational hazards in nurses.

Cardiovascular Event Prediction and Risk Reclassification by Coronary, Aortic, and Valvular Calcification in the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Udo; Massaro, Joseph M; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Kathiresan, Sekar; Fox, Caroline S; O'Donnell, Christopher J

2016-02-22

We determined whether vascular and valvular calcification predicted incident major coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors in the community-based Framingham Heart Study. Coronary artery calcium (CAC), thoracic and abdominal aortic calcium, and mitral or aortic valve calcium were measured by cardiac computed tomography in participants free of CVD. Participants were followed for a median of 8 years. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine association of CAC, thoracic and abdominal aortic calcium, and mitral and aortic valve calcium with end points. Improvement in discrimination beyond risk factors was tested via the C-statistic and net reclassification index. In this cohort of 3486 participants (mean age 50±10 years; 51% female), CAC was most strongly associated with major coronary heart disease, followed by major CVD, and all-cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors. Among noncoronary calcifications, mitral valve calcium was associated with major CVD and all-cause mortality independent of Framingham risk factors and CAC. CAC significantly improved discriminatory value beyond risk factors for coronary heart disease (area under the curve 0.78-0.82; net reclassification index 32%, 95% CI 11-53) but not for CVD. CAC accurately reclassified 85% of the 261 patients who were at intermediate (5-10%) 10-year risk for coronary heart disease based on Framingham risk factors to either low risk (n=172; no events observed) or high risk (n=53; observed event rate 8%). CAC improves discrimination and risk reclassification for major coronary heart disease and CVD beyond risk factors in asymptomatic community-dwelling persons and accurately reclassifies two-thirds of the intermediate-risk population. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Cow- and herd-level risk factors for on-farm mortality in Midwest US dairy herds.

PubMed

Shahid, M Q; Reneau, J K; Chester-Jones, H; Chebel, R C; Endres, M I

2015-07-01

The objectives of this study were to describe on-farm mortality and to investigate cow- and herd-level risk factors associated with on-farm mortality in Midwest US dairy herds using lactation survival analysis. We analyzed a total of approximately 5.9 million DHIA lactation records from 10 Midwest US states from January 2006 to December 2010. The cow-level independent variables used in the models were first test-day milk yield, milk fat percent, milk protein percent, fat-to-protein ratio, milk urea nitrogen, somatic cell score, previous dry period, previous calving interval, stillbirth, calf sex, twinning, calving difficulty, season of calving, parity, and breed. The herd-level variables included herd size, calving interval, somatic cell score, 305-d mature-equivalent milk yield, and herd stillbirth percentage. Descriptive analysis showed that overall cow-level mortality rate was 6.4 per 100 cow-years and it increased from 5.9 in 2006 to 6.8 in 2010. Mortality was the primary reason of leaving the herd (19.4% of total culls) followed by reproduction (14.6%), injuries and other (14.0%), low production (12.3%), and mastitis (10.5%). Risk factor analysis showed that increased hazard for mortality was associated with higher fat-to-protein ratio (>1.6 vs. 1 to 1.6), higher milk fat percent, lower milk protein percent, cows with male calves, cows carrying multiple calves, higher milk urea nitrogen, increasing parity, longer previous calving interval, higher first test-day somatic cell score, increased calving difficulty score, and breed (Holstein vs. others). Decreased hazard for mortality was associated with higher first test-day milk yield, higher milk protein, and shorter dry period. For herd-level factors, increased hazard for mortality was associated with increased herd size, increased percentage of stillbirths, higher somatic cell score, and increased herd calving interval. Cows in herds with higher milk yield had lower mortality hazard. Results of the study indicated that first test-day records, especially those indicative of negative energy balance in cows, could be helpful to identify animals at high risk for mortality. Higher milk yield per cow did not have a negative association with mortality. In addition, the association between herd-level factors and mortality indicated that management quality could be an important factor in lowering on-farm mortality, thereby improving cow welfare. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Gender and age dependent mortality from nervous diseases in Azerbaijan].

PubMed

Mamedbeyli, A K

2015-01-01

To assess age- and sex-related changes in the mortality from nervous diseases at the population level. Methods of descriptive statistics and analysis of qualitative traits were applied. We analyzed 13580 medical certificates of cause of death from nervous diseases (all classes of ICD-10). The mortality rate varied with age, the main trend of which was the dynamic growth. Age-specific mortality rates for men and women differed from each other: in most ages (20-24, 30-34, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 65-69), the likelihood of mortality was higher in men, and at the age of 5-9, 15-19, 60-64, 70 and more years in women. After the standardization of gender differences by age, the mortality risk of nervous illnesses disappeared (146.74 and 144.16 per 100 thousand for men and women, respectively).  There were significant differences in the proportion of nervous diseases of all-cause mortality among the population in the groups stratified by age and sex. It is believed that situational factors is a cause of actual prevailing of gender age- and sex-related mortality risks. Gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are characterized by the multidirectional dynamics of likelihood of mortality and specific weight of nervous diseases among all causes of mortality. The actual gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are generally caused by situational factors (different age structure and unequal level of the general mortality among male and female population) which disappear after standardization.

Mortality among subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma at two respiratory disease clinics in Ontario

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, Murray M; Chapman, Kenneth R; McIvor, R Andrew; Sears, Malcolm R

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common; however, mortality rates among individuals with these diseases are not well studied in North America. OBJECTIVE: To investigate mortality rates and risk factors for premature death among subjects with COPD. METHODS: Subjects were identified from the lung function testing databases of two academic respiratory disease clinics in Hamilton and Toronto, Ontario. Mortality was ascertained by linkage to the Ontario mortality registry between 1992 and 2002, inclusive. Standardized mortality ratios were computed. Poisson regression of standardized mortality ratios and proportional hazards regression were performed to examine the multivariate effect of risk factors on the standardized mortality ratios and mortality hazards. RESULTS: Compared with the Ontario population, all-cause mortality was approximately doubled among subjects with COPD, but was lower than expected among subjects with asthma. The risk of mortality in patients with COPD was related to cigarette smoking, to the presence of comorbid conditons of ischemic heart disease and diabetes, and to Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease severity scores. Individuals living closer to traffic sources showed an elevated risk of death compared with those who lived further away from traffic sources. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates among subjects diagnosed with COPD were substantially elevated. There were several deaths attributed to asthma among subjects in the present study; however, overall, patients with asthma demonstrated lower mortality rates than the general population. Subjects with COPD need to be managed with attention devoted to both their respiratory disorders and related comorbidities. PMID:22187688

Impact of healthy lifestyle on mortality in people with normal blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and C-reactive protein.

PubMed

King, Dana E; Mainous, Arch G; Matheson, Eric M; Everett, Charles J

2013-02-01

To investigate the impact of healthy lifestyle on cardiovascular risk and mortality in people without a history of cardiovascular disease and without elevation of lipid, blood pressure, or inflammatory markers. Cohort study. Study of a diverse sample of adults in the NHANES III follow-up Mortality Survey, to determine the benefit of adhering to healthy lifestyle habits (five or more fruits and vegetables/day, regular exercise, or being non-obese (body mass index 18.5-29.9 kg/m(2)), no current smoking, moderate alcohol consumption) in adults without common cardiovascular risk factors such as elevated cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein, LDL, cholesterol >130 mg/dl), inflammation (C-reactive protein, CRP, >3.0 mg/l, or hypertension (blood pressure >140/90 mmHg). Of 11,841 participants, 14.9% were adherent to all five healthy habits. After controlling for age, race, and gender, individuals with lower LDL cholesterol (HR 6.33, 95% CI 2.80-14.30), low CRP (HR 3.48, 95% CI 2.23-5.41), or normal blood pressure (HR 2.87, 95% CI 1.58-5.20) and 0-1 healthy habits had significantly higher all-cause (shown) and cardiovascular mortality than people adhering to all five healthy habits. People without common risk factors and lacking only 1-2 of the healthy habits remained at higher risk of all-cause mortality. People without a history of cardiovascular disease who lack common cardiovascular risk factors remain at significantly greater risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality if they do not adhere to a healthy lifestyle. Strategies to encourage adopting healthy lifestyles should be implemented among individuals across all risk levels.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Cause-Specific Mortality in the General Population: The Northern Manhattan Study

PubMed Central

Souma, Nao; Isakova, Tamara; Lipiszko, David; Sacco, Ralph L.; Elkind, Mitchell S. V.; DeRosa, Janet T.; Silverberg, Shonni J.; Mendez, Armando J.; Dong, Chuanhui

2016-01-01

Context: An elevated fibroblast growth factor (FGF) 23 is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality in patients with kidney disease. The relationship between FGF23 and cause-specific mortality in the general population is unknown. Objective: To investigate the association of elevated FGF23 with the risk of cause-specific mortality in a racially and ethnically diverse urban general population. Design, Setting, Participants: The Northern Manhattan Study is a population-based prospective cohort study. Residents who were > 39 years old and had no history of stroke were enrolled between 1993 and 2001. Participants with available blood samples for baseline FGF23 testing were included in the current study (n = 2525). Main Outcome Measures: Cause-specific death events. Results: A total of 1198 deaths (474 vascular, 612 nonvascular, 112 unknown cause) occurred during a median follow-up of 14 years. Compared to participants in the lowest FGF23 quintile, those in the highest quintile had a 2.07-fold higher risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45, 2.94) of vascular death and a 1.64-fold higher risk (95% CI, 1.22, 2.20) of nonvascular death in fully adjusted models. Higher FGF23 was independently associated with increased risk of mortality due to cancer, but only in Hispanic participants (hazard ratio per 1 unit increase in ln FGF23 of 1.87; 95% CI, 1.40, 2.50; P for interaction = .01). Conclusions: Elevated FGF23 was independently associated with increased risk of vascular and nonvascular mortality in a diverse general population and with increased risk of cancer death specifically in Hispanic individuals. PMID:27501282

Predictors of mortality in patients with emphysema and severe airflow obstruction.

PubMed

Martinez, Fernando J; Foster, Gregory; Curtis, Jeffrey L; Criner, Gerard; Weinmann, Gail; Fishman, Alfred; DeCamp, Malcolm M; Benditt, Joshua; Sciurba, Frank; Make, Barry; Mohsenifar, Zab; Diaz, Philip; Hoffman, Eric; Wise, Robert

2006-06-15

Limited data exist describing risk factors for mortality in patients having predominantly emphysema. A total of 609 patients with severe emphysema (ages 40-83 yr; 64.2% male) randomized to the medical therapy arm of the National Emphysema Treatment Trial formed the study group. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors for all-cause mortality. Risk factors examined included demographics, body mass index, physiologic data, quality of life, dyspnea, oxygen utilization, hemoglobin, smoking history, quantitative emphysema markers on computed tomography, and a modification of a recently described multifunctional index (modified BODE). Overall, high mortality was seen in this cohort (12.7 deaths per 100 person-years; 292 total deaths). In multivariate analyses, increasing age (p=0.001), oxygen utilization (p=0.04), lower total lung capacity % predicted (p=0.05), higher residual volume % predicted (p=0.04), lower maximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing workload (p=0.002), greater proportion of emphysema in the lower lung zone versus the upper lung zone (p=0.005), and lower upper-to-lower-lung perfusion ratio (p=0.007), and modified BODE (p=0.02) were predictive of mortality. FEV1 was a significant predictor of mortality in univariate analysis (p=0.005), but not in multivariate analysis (p=0.21). Although patients with advanced emphysema experience significant mortality, subgroups based on age, oxygen utilization, physiologic measures, exercise capacity, and emphysema distribution identify those at increased risk of death.

Predictors of Long-Term Mortality in Oldest Old Patients (90+) Hospitalized to Medical Wards via the Emergency Department: The SAFES Cohort.

PubMed

de Boissieu, P; Mahmoudi, R; Hentzien, M; Toquet, S; Novella, J-L; Blanchard, F; Jolly, D; Dramé, M

2015-06-01

To identify risk factors for long-term mortality in patients aged 90 years and over who are admitted to hospital through the emergency department. Prospective cohort study (SAFES cohort; Sujet Agé Fragile - Évaluation Suivi). 8 university teaching hospitals and one regional, non-academic hospital in France. Among 1306 patients in the SAFES cohort, 291 patients aged 90 or over were included. At inclusion, we recorded socio-demographic data (age, sex, level of education, living alone or in an institution, number of children, presence of helper/caregiver), and data from geriatric evaluation (dependence status, risk of depression, dementia, delirium, nutritional status, walking disorders, risk of falls, comorbidities, risk of pressure sores). Vital status at 36 months was obtained from the treating physician, the general practitioner, administrative registers, or during follow-up consultations. Among 291 patients included, 190 (65.3%) had died at 36 months. Risk factors for mortality at 36 months identified by multivariate analysis were risk of malnutrition (HR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3, p=0.004) and delirium (HR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3, p=0.01). Risk of malnutrition and presence of delirium are risk factors for mortality at 36 months in subjects aged 90 years and over hospitalized through the emergency department.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918–19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality. PMID:24996457

Mortality risk factors for calves entering a multi-location white veal farm in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Winder, Charlotte B; Kelton, David F; Duffield, Todd F

2016-12-01

Mortality in preweaned dairy-breed calves, whether they are replacement dairy heifers, veal animals, or dairy beef animals, represents both a welfare issue and a source of economic loss for the industries involved. Studies describing morbidity and mortality in veal calves have illustrated different management practices and requirements in terms of housing and nutrition around the world. Studies examining the rearing of replacement dairy heifers have shown that rates of morbidity and mortality can vary dramatically between farms, perhaps reflecting differences in management strategies. It has been over 2 decades since morbidity and mortality in veal calves in Ontario were described. The objective of this retrospective population cohort study was to describe mortality and determine whether on-arrival information could be used to predict mortality risk. Predictors could be used to both better classify and group calves on arrival and provide feedback to suppliers about the characteristics of the highest- and lowest-risk calves. We collected data from 10,910 calves entering 7 barns of a single white veal farm, all in Ontario, from January 1 to December 31, 2014. Calves were followed until death or marketing (typically 140 to 150 d). We developed logistic regression models to determine the effects of weight on arrival, season of arrival, supplier, sex, barn, and purchase price on the risk of total mortality, early mortality (0-21d after arrival), and late mortality (>21d after arrival). We identified significant associations between season, barn, supplier, weight, and total mortality risk, with lighter-weight calves arriving in winter being at increased risk. Early mortality was significantly associated with weight, season, barn, and supplier, and tended to be associated with standardized price; lighter-weight calves arriving in winter at lower prices were at increased risk. Late mortality was significantly associated with season of arrival, barn, and supplier. On-arrival measures better predicted early mortality compared with late or total mortality. A further exploration of risk factors from the dairy farm of origin for veal calf mortality would serve to improve the productivity and welfare of calves of both sexes born on dairy farms. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On-farm mortality, causes and risk factors in Estonian beef cow-calf herds.

PubMed

Mõtus, Kerli; Reimus, Kaari; Orro, Toomas; Viltrop, Arvo; Emanuelson, Ulf

2017-04-01

High on-farm mortality is associated with lower financial return of production and poor animal health and welfare. Understanding the reasons for on-farm mortality and related risk factors allows focus on specific prevention measures. This retrospective cohort study used cattle registry data from the years 2013 and 2014, collected from cattle from all Estonian cow-calf beef herds. The dataset contained 78,605 animal records from 1321 farms in total. Including unassisted deaths and euthanasia (2199 in total) the on-farm mortality rate was 2.14 per 100 animal-years. Across all age groups of both sexes the mortality rate (MR) was highest for bull calves up to three months old (MR=7.78 per 100 animal-years, 95% CI 6.97; 8.68) followed by that for heifer calves (MR=6.21 per 100 animal-years, 95% CI 5.49; 7.02). For female cattle the mortality risk declined after three months of age but increased again among animals over 18 months. The reason for death stated by the farmers was analysed for cattle under animal performance testing. Other/unknown reasons, trauma and accidents, as well as metabolic and digestive disorders, formed the three most commonly reported reasons for death in cattle of all age groups. Weibull proportional hazard models with farm frailty effects were applied in three age categories (calves up to three months, youngstock from three to 18 months and cattle aged over 18 months) to identify factors associated with the risk of mortality. Male sex was associated with increased risk of mortality in cattle up to 18 months of age. No difference between breeds was found for cattle up to 18 months of age. Beef cattle breeds rarely represented or dairy breeds (breed category 'Other') had the highest mortality hazard (HR=1.41, 95% CI 1.11; 1.78) compared to Hereford. The hazard of mortality generally increased with herd size for calves, young stock and older bulls. In female cattle over 18 months of age there was no difference in mortality hazard over herd size categories. Herd location was controlled in the models and regional differences in mortality hazard were found. Common to all age groups, calving season was associated with increased risk of mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Has patient survival following renal transplantation improved in the era of modern immunosuppression?

PubMed

Hernández, Domingo; Moreso, Francesc

2013-01-01

Renal transplantation (TX) is the treatment of choice in the majority of patients with chronic kidney disease. But, these patients have a high mortality rate with respect to the general population despite new immunosuppression treatments and improved clinical management. This justifies that the excellent results obtained in the short terms do not have a parallel clinical benefit in the long term. This worrying situation is probably due to a high prevalence of cardiovascular conditions and infectious and neoplastic entities amongst this population against a backdrop of immunosuppression treatment. Furthermore, there is interaction between these processes, which share causal factors and common pathogenic mechanisms. Mortality thus increases. Therefore, identifying the causes of death and the risk factors, applying morbidity and mortality predictive models and intervening in causal factors could constitute some of the strategies for improving renal transplantation results in terms of survival. This review analyses some of the evidence conditioning this high mortality rate following TX, as well and the therapeutic and prognostic aspects associated with co-morbidity: 1) Magnitude of the problem and causes of death among sufferers; 2) Identification of mortality risk factors; 3) Therapeutic strategies for decrease post-TX mortality and; 4) Prediction of mortality and ischaemic heart disease.

Mortality and Its Risk Factors in Patients with Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder

PubMed Central

Zhou, Junying; Zhang, Jihui; Lam, Siu Ping; Mok, Vincent; Chan, Anne; Li, Shirley Xin; Liu, Yaping; Tang, Xiangdong; Yung, Wing Ho; Wing, Yun Kwok

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: To determine the mortality and its risk factors in patients with rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD). Methods: A total of 205 consecutive patients with video-polysomnography confirmed RBD (mean age = 66.4 ± 10.0 y, 78.5% males) were recruited. Medical records and death status were systematically reviewed in the computerized records of the health care system. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was used to calculate the risk ratio of mortality in RBD with reference to the general population. Results: Forty-three patients (21.0%) died over a mean follow-up period of 7.1 ± 4.5 y. The SMR was not increased in the overall sample, SMR (95% confidence interval [CI]) = 1.00 (0.73–1.33). However, SMR (95% CI) increased to 1.80 (1.21–2.58) and 1.75 (1.11–2.63) for RBD patients in whom neurodegenerative diseases and dementia, respectively, eventually developed. In the Cox regression model, mortality risk was significantly associated with age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01–1.10), living alone (HR = 2.04; 95% CI, 1.39–2.99), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.21–9.46), cancer (HR = 10.09; 95% CI, 2.65–38.42), periodic limb movements during sleep (HR = 3.06; 95% CI, 1.50–6.24), and development of neurodegenerative diseases (HR = 2.84; 95% CI, 1.47–5.45) and dementia (HR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.39–5.08). Conclusions: Patients with RBD have a higher mortality rate than the general population only if neurodegenerative diseases develop. Several risk factors on clinical and sleep aspects are associated with mortality in RBD patients. Our findings underscore the necessity of timely neuroprotective interventions in the early phase of RBD before the development of neurodegenerative diseases. Citation: Zhou J, Zhang J, Lam SP, Mok V, Chan A, Li SX, Liu Y, Tang X, Yung WH, Wing YK. Mortality and its risk factors in patients with rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder. SLEEP 2016;39(8):1543–1550. PMID:27306273

Mortality after prison release: opioid overdose and other causes of death, risk factors, and time trends from 1999 to 2009.

PubMed

Binswanger, Ingrid A; Blatchford, Patrick J; Mueller, Shane R; Stern, Marc F

2013-11-05

Among former prisoners, a high rate of death has been documented in the early postrelease period, particularly from drug-related causes. Little is known about risk factors and trends in postrelease mortality in the past decade, especially given general population increases in overdose deaths from pharmaceutical opioids. To determine postrelease mortality between 1999 and 2009; cause-specific mortality rates; and whether sex, calendar year, and custody factors were risk factors for all-cause, overdose, and opioid-related deaths. Cohort study. Prison system of the Washington State Department of Corrections. 76 208 persons released from prison. Identities were linked probabilistically to the National Death Index to identify deaths and causes of death, and mortality rates were calculated. Cox proportional hazards regression estimated the effect of age, sex, race or ethnicity, whether the incarceration resulted from a violation of terms of the person's community supervision, length of incarceration, release type, and calendar year on the hazard ratio (HR) for death. The all-cause mortality rate was 737 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 708 to 766) (n = 2462 deaths). Opioids were involved in 14.8% of all deaths. Overdose was the leading cause of death (167 per 100 000 person-years [CI, 153 to 181]), and overdose deaths in former prisoners accounted for 8.3% of the overdose deaths among persons aged 15 to 84 years in Washington from 2000 to 2009. Women were at increased risk for overdose (HR, 1.38 [CI, 1.12 to 1.69]) and opioid-related deaths (HR, 1.39 [CI, 1.09 to 1.79]). The study was done in only 1 state. Innovation is needed to reduce the risk for overdose among former prisoners. National Institute on Drug Abuse and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Attributable causes of colorectal cancer in China.

PubMed

Gu, Meng-Jia; Huang, Qiu-Chi; Bao, Cheng-Zhen; Li, Ying-Jun; Li, Xiao-Qin; Ye, Ding; Ye, Zhen-Hua; Chen, Kun; Wang, Jian-Bing

2018-01-05

Colorectal cancer is the 4th common cancer in China. Most colorectal cancers are due to modifiable lifestyle factors, but few studies have provided a systematic evidence-based assessment of the burden of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality attributable to the known risk factors in China. We estimated the population attributable faction (PAF) for each selected risk factor in China, based on the prevalence of exposure around 2000 and relative risks from cohort studies and meta-analyses. Among 245,000 new cases and 139,000 deaths of colorectal cancer in China in 2012, we found that 115,578 incident cases and 63,102 deaths of colorectal cancer were attributable to smoking, alcohol drinking, overweight and obesity, physical inactivity and dietary factors. Low vegetable intake was the main risk factor for colorectal cancer with a PAF of 17.9%. Physical inactivity was responsible for 8.9% of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. The remaining factors, including high red and processed meat intake, low fruit intake, alcohol drinking, overweight/obesity and smoking, accounted for 8.6%, 6.4%, 5.4%, 5.3% and 4.9% of colorectal cancer, respectively. Overall, 45.5% of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality were attributable to the joint effects of these seven risk factors. Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity, low vegetable intake, low fruit intake, and high red and processed meat intake were responsible for nearly 46% of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in China in 2012. Our findings could provide a basis for developing guidelines of colorectal cancer prevention and control in China.

Out of control mortality matters: the effect of perceived uncontrollable mortality risk on a health-related decision.

PubMed

Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-01-01

Prior evidence from the public health literature suggests that both control beliefs and perceived threats to life are important for health behaviour. Our previously presented theoretical model generated the more specific hypothesis that uncontrollable, but not controllable, personal mortality risk should alter the payoff from investment in health protection behaviours. We carried out three experiments to test whether altering the perceived controllability of mortality risk would affect a health-related decision. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a mortality prime could be used to alter a health-related decision: the choice between a healthier food reward (fruit) and an unhealthy alternative (chocolate). Experiment 2 demonstrated that it is the controllability of the mortality risk being primed that generates the effect, rather than mortality risk per se. Experiment 3 showed that the effect could be seen in a surreptitious experiment that was not explicitly health related. Our results suggest that perceptions about the controllability of mortality risk may be an important factor in people's health-related decisions. Thus, techniques for adjusting perceptions about mortality risk could be important tools for use in health interventions. More importantly, tackling those sources of mortality that people perceive to be uncontrollable could have a dual purpose: making neighbourhoods and workplaces safer would have the primary benefit of reducing uncontrollable mortality risk, which could lead to a secondary benefit from improved health behaviours.

Morbidity, mortality, and categorization of the risk of perioperative complications in lung cancer patients*

PubMed Central

Stanzani, Fabiana; Paisani, Denise de Moraes; de Oliveira, Anderson; de Souza, Rodrigo Caetano; Perfeito, João Aléssio Juliano; Faresin, Sonia Maria

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine morbidity and mortality rates by risk category in accordance with the American College of Chest Physicians guidelines, to determine what role pulmonary function tests play in this categorization process, and to identify risk factors for perioperative complications (PCs). METHODS: This was a historical cohort study based on preoperative and postoperative data collected for cases of lung cancer diagnosed or suspected between 2001 and 2010. RESULTS: Of the 239 patients evaluated, only 13 (5.4%) were classified as being at high risk of PCs. Predicted postoperative FEV1 (FEV1ppo) was sufficient to define the risk level in 156 patients (65.3%); however, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) was necessary for identifying those at high risk. Lung resection was performed in 145 patients. Overall morbidity and mortality rates were similar to those reported in other studies. However, morbidity and mortality rates for patients at an acceptable risk of PCs were 31.6% and 4.3%, respectively, whereas those for patients at high risk were 83.3% and 33.3%. Advanced age, COPD, lobe resection, and lower FEV1ppo were correlated with PCs. CONCLUSIONS: Although spirometry was sufficient for risk assessment in the majority of the population studied, CPET played a key role in the identification of high-risk patients, among whom the mortality rate was seven times higher than was that observed for those at an acceptable risk of PCs. The risk factors related to PCs coincided with those reported in previous studies. PMID:24626266

Trends in one-year mortality for stroke in a tertiary academic center in Saudi Arabia: a 5-year retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Almekhlafi, Mohammed A

2016-01-01

Numerous studies have reported a decline in stroke-related mortality in developed countries. To assess trends in one-year mortality following a stroke diagnosis in Saudi Arabia. Retrospective longitudinal cohort study. Single tertiary care center from 2010 through 2014. All patients admitted with a primary admitting diagnosis of stroke. Demographic data (age, gender, nationality), risk factor profile, stroke subtypes, in-hospital complications and mortality data as well as cause of death were collected for all patients. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess factors associated with one-year mortality following a stroke admission. One-year mortality. In 548 patients with a mean age of 62.9 years (SD 16.9), the most frequent vascular risk factors were hypertension (90.6%), diabetes (65.5%), and hyperlipidemia (27.2%). Hemorrhagic stroke was diagnosed in 9.9%. The overall mortality risk was 26.9%. Non-Saudis had a significantly higher one-year mortality risk compared with Saudis (25% vs. 16.8%, respectively; P=.025). The most frequently reported causes of mortality were neurological and related to the underlying stroke (32%), sepsis (30%), and cardiac or other organ dysfunction-related (each 9%) in addition to other etiologies (collectively 9.5%) such as pulmonary embolism or an underlying malignancy. Significant predictors in the multivariate model were age (P < .0001), non-Saudi nationality (OR 1.8, CI 95 1.1 to 2.9; P=.019), and hospital length of stay (OR 1.01, CI 95 1 to 1.004; P=.001). We observed no decline in stroke mortality in our center over the 5-year span. The establishment of stroke systems of care, use of thrombolytic agents, and opening of a stroke unit should play an important role in a decline in stroke mortality. Retrospective single center study. Mortality data were available only for patients who died in our hospital.

Metabolic syndrome, major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, and ten-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in middle aged and elderly patients.

PubMed

Butnoriene, Jurate; Bunevicius, Adomas; Saudargiene, Ausra; Nemeroff, Charles B; Norkus, Antanas; Ciceniene, Vile; Bunevicius, Robertas

2015-01-01

Studies investigating specifically whether metabolic syndrome (MetS) and common psychiatric disorders are independently associated with mortality are lacking. In a middle-aged general population, we investigated the association of the MetS, current major depressive episode (MDE), lifetime MDE, and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) with ten-year all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. From February 2003 until January 2004, 1115 individuals aged 45 years and older were randomly selected from a primary care practice and prospectively evaluated for: (1) MetS (The World Health Organization [WHO], National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III and International Diabetes Federation [IDF] definitions); (2) current MDE and GAD, and lifetime MDE (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview); and (3) conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Follow-up continued through January, 2013. During the 9.32 ± 0.47 years of follow-up, there were 248 deaths, of which 148 deaths were attributed to cardiovascular causes. In women, WHO-MetS and IDF-MetS were associated with greater all-cause (HR-values range from 1.77 to 1.91; p-values ≤ 0.012) and cardiovascular (HR-values range from 1.83 to 2.77; p-values ≤ 0.013) mortality independent of cardiovascular risk factors and MDE/GAD. Current GAD predicted greater cardiovascular mortality (HR-values range from 1.86 to 1.99; p-values ≤ 0.025) independently from MetS and cardiovascular risk factors. In men, the MetS and MDE/GAD were not associated with mortality. In middle aged women, the MetS and GAD predicted greater 10-year cardiovascular mortality independently from each other; 10-year all-cause mortality was independently predicted by the MetS. MetS and GAD should be considered important and independent mortality risk factors in women. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Racial differences in colorectal cancer mortality. The importance of stage and socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Marcella, S; Miller, J E

2001-04-01

This investigation studies racial and socioeconomic differences in mortality from colorectal cancer, and how they vary by stage and age at diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio of dying from colorectal cancer, controlling for tumor characteristics and sociodemographic factors. Black adults had a greater risk of death from colorectal cancer, especially in early stages. The gender gap in mortality is wider among blacks than whites. Differences in tumor characteristics and socioeconomic factors each accounted for approximately one third of the excess risk of death among blacks. Effects of socioeconomic factors and race varied significantly by age. Higher stage-specific mortality rates and more advanced stage at diagnosis both contribute to the higher case-fatality rates from colorectal cancer among black adults, only some of which is due to socioeconomic differences. Socioeconomic and racial factors have their most significant effects in different age groups.

Work stress and risk of death in men and women with and without cardiometabolic disease: a multicohort study.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Pentti, Jaana; Ferrie, Jane E; Batty, G David; Nyberg, Solja T; Jokela, Markus; Virtanen, Marianna; Alfredsson, Lars; Dragano, Nico; Fransson, Eleonor I; Goldberg, Marcel; Knutsson, Anders; Koskenvuo, Markku; Koskinen, Aki; Kouvonen, Anne; Luukkonen, Ritva; Oksanen, Tuula; Rugulies, Reiner; Siegrist, Johannes; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Suominen, Sakari; Theorell, Töres; Väänänen, Ari; Vahtera, Jussi; Westerholm, Peter J M; Westerlund, Hugo; Zins, Marie; Strandberg, Timo; Steptoe, Andrew; Deanfield, John

2018-06-05

Although some cardiovascular disease prevention guidelines suggest a need to manage work stress in patients with established cardiometabolic disease, the evidence base for this recommendation is weak. We sought to clarify the status of stress as a risk factor in cardiometabolic disease by investigating the associations between work stress and mortality in men and women with and without pre-existing cardiometabolic disease. In this multicohort study, we used data from seven cohort studies in the IPD-Work consortium, initiated between 1985 and 2002 in Finland, France, Sweden, and the UK, to examine the association between work stress and mortality. Work stress was denoted as job strain or effort-reward imbalance at work. We extracted individual-level data on prevalent cardiometabolic diseases (coronary heart disease, stroke, or diabetes [without differentiation by diabetes type]) at baseline. Work stressors, socioeconomic status, and conventional and lifestyle risk factors (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, smoking status, BMI, physical activity, and alcohol consumption) were also assessed at baseline. Mortality data, including date and cause of death, were obtained from national death registries. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to study the associations of work stressors with mortality in men and women with and without cardiometabolic disease. We identified 102 633 individuals with 1 423 753 person-years at risk (mean follow-up 13·9 years [SD 3·9]), of whom 3441 had prevalent cardiometabolic disease at baseline and 3841 died during follow-up. In men with cardiometabolic disease, age-standardised mortality rates were substantially higher in people with job strain (149·8 per 10 000 person-years) than in those without (97·7 per 10 000 person-years; mortality difference 52·1 per 10 000 person-years; multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·68, 95% CI 1·19-2·35). This mortality difference for job strain was almost as great as that for current smoking versus former smoking (78·1 per 10 000 person-years) and greater than those due to hypertension, high total cholesterol concentration, obesity, physical inactivity, and high alcohol consumption relative to the corresponding lower risk groups (mortality difference 5·9-44·0 per 10 000 person-years). Excess mortality associated with job strain was also noted in men with cardiometabolic disease who had achieved treatment targets, including groups with a healthy lifestyle (HR 2·01, 95% CI 1·18-3·43) and those with normal blood pressure and no dyslipidaemia (6·17, 1·74-21·9). In all women and in men without cardiometabolic disease, relative risk estimates for the work stress-mortality association were not significant, apart from effort-reward imbalance in men without cardiometabolic disease (mortality difference 6·6 per 10 000 person-years; multivariable-adjusted HR 1·22, 1·06-1·41). In men with cardiometabolic disease, the contribution of job strain to risk of death was clinically significant and independent of conventional risk factors and their treatment, and measured lifestyle factors. Standard care targeting conventional risk factors is therefore unlikely to mitigate the mortality risk associated with job strain in this population. NordForsk, UK Medical Research Council, and Academy of Finland. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Rural-metropolitan disparities in ovarian cancer survival: a statewide population-based study.

PubMed

Park, Jihye; Blackburn, Brenna E; Rowe, Kerry; Snyder, John; Wan, Yuan; Deshmukh, Vikrant; Newman, Michael; Fraser, Alison; Smith, Ken; Herget, Kim; Burt, Lindsay; Werner, Theresa; Gaffney, David K; Lopez, Ana Maria; Mooney, Kathi; Hashibe, Mia

2018-06-01

To investigate rural-metropolitan disparities in ovarian cancer survival, we assessed ovarian cancer mortality and differences in prognostic factors by rural-metropolitan residence. The Utah Population Database was used to identify ovarian cancer cases diagnosed between 1997 and 2012. Residential location information at the time of cancer diagnosis was used to stratify rural-metropolitan residence. All-cause death and ovarian cancer death risks were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Among 1661 patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer, 11.8% were living in rural counties of Utah. Although ovarian cancer patients residing in rural counties had different characteristics compared with metropolitan residents, we did not observe an association between rural residence and risk of all-cause nor ovarian cancer-specific death after adjusting for confounders. However, among rural residents, ovarian cancer mortality risk was very high in older age at diagnosis and for mucinous carcinoma, and low in overweight at baseline. Rural residence was not significantly associated with the risk of ovarian cancer death. Nevertheless, patients residing in rural-metropolitan areas had different factors affecting the risk of all-cause mortality and cancer-specific death. Further research is needed to quantify how mortality risk can differ by residential location accounting for degree of health care access and lifestyle-related factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suicide mortality and risk factors in the 12 months after discharge from psychiatric inpatient care in Korea: 1989-2006.

PubMed

Park, Subin; Choi, Jae Won; Kyoung Yi, Ki; Hong, Jin Pyo

2013-07-30

This study aimed to determine the suicide mortality within 1 year after discharge from psychiatric inpatient care and identify the risk factors for suicide completion during this period. A total of 8403 patients were admitted to general hospitals in Seoul, Korea, for psychiatric disorders from January 1989 to December 2006. The suicide mortality risk of these patients within 1 year of discharge was compared with that of gender- and age-matched subjects from the general population of Korea. The standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for suicide in the year following discharge were 49.7 for males and 45.5 for females. Patients aged 15-24 years had the highest risk for suicide. Among the different diagnostic groups, patients with personality disorders, schizophrenia, or affective disorders had the highest risk for suicide completion. Suicidal ideation at admission and inpatient stay more than 1 month were also associated with increased risk of suicide. In Korean psychiatric patients, the SMR is much higher in young female patients, a high percentage of patients commit suicide by jumping, and there is a stronger association of long duration of hospitalization and suicide. These factors should be considered in the development and implementation of suicide prevention strategies for Korean psychiatric patients. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Sleep duration and ischemic heart disease and all-cause mortality: prospective cohort study on effects of tranquilizers/hypnotics and perceived stress.

PubMed

Garde, Anne Helene; Hansen, Åse Marie; Holtermann, Andreas; Gyntelberg, Finn; Suadicani, Poul

2013-11-01

This prospective study aimed to examine if sleep duration is a risk indicator for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all-cause mortality, and how perceived stress during work and leisure time and use of tranquilizers/hypnotics modifies the association. A 30-year follow-up study was carried out in the Copenhagen Male Study comprising 5249 men (40-59 years old). Confounders included lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol, and leisure-time physical activity), clinical and health-related factors (body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, and physical fitness) and social class. Men with a history of cardiovascular disease at baseline were excluded. During follow-up, 587 men (11.9%) died from IHD and 2663 (53.9%) due to all-cause mortality. There were 276 short (<6 hours), 3837 medium (6-7 hours), and 828 long (≥8 hours) sleepers. Men who slept <6 hours had an increased risk of IHD mortality but not all-cause mortality, when referencing medium sleepers. Perceived psychological pressure during work and leisure was not a significant effect modifier for the association between sleep duration and IHD mortality. In contrast, among men using tranquilizers/hypnotics (rarely or regularly), short sleepers had a two-to-three fold increased risk of IHD mortality compared to medium sleepers. Among those never using tranquilizers/hypnotics, no association was observed between sleep duration and IHD mortality. Short sleep duration is a risk factor for IHD mortality among middle-aged and elderly men, particularly those using tranquilizers/hypnotics on a regular or even a rare basis, but not among men not using tranquilizers/hypnotics.

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952–2006: an age-period-cohort analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. Methods Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Results Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950–1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. Conclusions While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study. PMID:24725381

Risk Factors for Mortality in Reoperations for Pediatric and Congenital Heart Surgery in a Developing Country.

PubMed

Villa-Hincapie, Carlos A; Carreno-Jaimes, Marisol; Obando-Lopez, Carlos E; Camacho-Mackenzie, Jaime; Umaña-Mallarino, Juan P; Sandoval-Reyes, Nestor F

2017-07-01

The survival of patients with congenital heart disease has increased in the recent years, because of enhanced diagnostic capabilities, better surgical techniques, and improved perioperative care. Many patients will require reoperation as part of staged procedures or to treat grafts deterioration and residual or recurrent lesions. Reoperations favor the formation of cardiac adhesions and consequently increase surgery time; however, the impact on morbidity and operative mortality is certain. The objective of the study was to describe the risk factors for mortality in pediatric patients undergoing a reoperation for congenital heart disease. Historic cohort of patients who underwent reoperation after pediatric cardiac surgery from January 2009 to December 2015. Operations with previous surgical approach different to sternotomy were excluded from the analysis. In seven years, 3,086 surgeries were performed, 481 were reoperations, and 238 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Mean number of prior surgeries was 1.4 ± 0.6. Median age at the time of reoperation was 6.4 years. The most common surgical procedures were staged palliation for functionally univentricular heart (17.6%). Median cross-clamp time was 66 minutes. Younger age at the moment of resternotomy, longer cross-clamp time, and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery Congenital Heart Surgery (STAT) Mortality Categories risk category greater than three were risk factors for mortality. The number of resternotomies was not associated with mortality. Mortality prior to hospital discharge was 4.6%, and mortality after discharge but prior to 30 days after surgery was 0.54%. Operative mortality was 5.1%. Resternotomy in pediatric cardiac surgery is a safe procedure in our center.

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952-2006: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Seoane-Mato, Daniel; Aragonés, Nuria; Ferreras, Eva; García-Pérez, Javier; Cervantes-Amat, Marta; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; López-Abente, Gonzalo

2014-04-11

Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950-1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study.

Risk factors in surgical management of thoracic empyema in elderly patients.

PubMed

Hsieh, Ming-Ju; Liu, Yun-Hen; Chao, Yin-Kai; Lu, Ming-Shian; Liu, Hui-Ping; Wu, Yi-Cheng; Lu, Hung-I; Chu, Yen

2008-06-01

Although elderly patients with thoracic disease were considered to be poor candidates for thoracotomy before, recent advances in preoperative and postoperative care as well as surgical techniques have improved outcomes of thoracotomies in this patient group. The aim of this study was to investigate surgical risk factors and results in elderly patients (aged > or =70 years) with thoracic empyema. Seventy-one elderly patients with empyema thoracis were enrolled and evaluated from July 2000 to April 2003. The following characteristics and clinical data were analysed: age, sex, aetiology of empyema, comorbid diseases, preoperative conditions, postoperative days of intubation, length of hospital stay after surgery, complications and mortality. Surgical intervention, including total pneumonolysis and evacuation of the pleura empyema cavity, was carried out in all patients. Possible influent risk factors on the outcome were analysed. The sample group included 54 men and 17 women with an average age of 76.8 years. The causes of empyema included parapneumonic effusion (n = 43), lung abscess (n = 8), necrotizing pneumonitis (n = 8), malignancy (n = 5), cirrhosis (n = 2), oesophageal perforation (n = 2), post-traumatic empyema (n = 2) and post-thoracotomy complication (n = 1). The 30-day mortality rate was 11.3% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 18.3% (13 of 71). Mean follow up was 9.4 months and mean duration of postoperative hospitalization was 35.8 days. Analysis of risk factors showed that patients with necrotizing pneumonitis or abscess had the highest mortality rate (10 of 18, 62.6%). The second highest risk factor was preoperative intubation or ventilator-dependency (8 of 18, 44.4%). This study presents the clinical features and outcomes of 71 elderly patients with empyema thoracis who underwent surgical treatment. The 30-day surgical mortality rate was 11.3%. Significant risk factors in elderly patients with empyema thoracis were necrotizing pneumonitis, abscess and preoperative intubation/ventilation. This study also suggested that surgical treatment of empyema thoracic in elderly patients is recommended after failed conservative treatment because of the acceptably postoperative complication and mortality rate.

[Estimation of the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases mortality, life expectancy and the labor force lost in China in 2030].

PubMed

Zeng, X Y; Li, Y C; Liu, J M; Liu, Y N; Liu, S W; Qi, J L; Zhou, M G

2017-12-06

Objective: To estimate the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) mortality, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost in China in 2030. Methods: We used the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, according to the correlation between death of NCDs and exposure of risk factors and the comparative risk assessment theory, to calculate population attributable fraction (PAF) and disaggregate deaths of NCDs into parts attributable and un-attributable. We used proportional change model to project risk factors exposure and un-attributable deaths of NCDs in 2030, then to get deaths of NCDs in 2030. Simulated scenarios according to the goals of global main NCDs risk factors control proposed by WHO were constructed to calculate the impact of risk factors control on NCDs death, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost. Results: If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, compared to the numbers (8.499 million) and mortality rate (613.5/100 000) of NCDs in 2013, the death number (12.161 million) and mortality rate (859.2/100 000) would increase by 43.1% and 40.0% respectively in 2030, among which, ischemic stroke (increasing by 103.3% for death number and 98.8% for mortality rate) and ischemic heart disease (increasing by 85.0% for death number and 81.0% for mortality rate) would increase most quickly. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, the NCDs deaths would reduce 2 631 thousands. If only one risk factor gets the goal, blood pressure (1 484 thousands NCDs deaths reduction), smoking (717 thousands reduction) and BMI (274 thousands reduction) would be the most important factors affecting NCDs death. Blood pressure control would have greater impact on ischemic heart disease (662 thousands reduction) and hemorrhagic stroke (449 thousands reduction). Smoking control would have the greatest effect on lung cancer (251 thousands reduction) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (201 thousands reduction). BMI control would have the greatest impact on ischemic heart disease (86 thousands reduction) and hypertensive heart disease (45 thousands reduction). If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, in 2030, the life expectancy of Chinese population would reach to 79.0 years old, compared to 2013, increasing by 3.3 years old, the labor force at the age of 15-64 years old would loss 1.932 million. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, life expectancy would increase to 81.7 years old and the number of labor force lost would decrease to 1.467 million. Blood pressure, smoking and BMI control would have much greater impact on life expectancy (4.9, 4.0 and 3.8 years old respectively) and labor force lost (630 thousands, 496 thousands and 440 thousands respectively). Conclusion: Risk factors control would play an important role in reducing NCD death, improving life expectancy of residents and reducing loss of labor force. Among them, the control of blood pressure raising, smoking and BMI raising would have a greater contribution to the improvement of population health status.

Comparison of cardiovascular risk factors and survival in patients with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke.

PubMed

Henriksson, Karin M; Farahmand, Bahman; Åsberg, Signild; Edvardsson, Nils; Terént, Andreas

2012-06-01

Differences in risk factor profiles between patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke may have an impact on subsequent mortality. To explore cardiovascular disease risk factors, including the CHADS(2) score, with survival after ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. Between 2001 and 2005, 87 111 (83%) ischemic stroke, 12 497 (12%) hemorrhagic stroke, and 5435 (5%) patients with unspecified stroke were identified in the Swedish Stroke Register. Data on gender, age, and cardiovascular disease risk factors were linked to the Swedish Hospital Discharge and Cause of Death Registers. Adjusted odds and hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval were calculated using logistic and Cox proportional hazard regression models. Hemorrhagic stroke patients were younger than ischemic stroke patients. All cardiovascular disease risk factors studied, alone or combined in the CHADS(2) score, were associated with higher odds ratios for ischemic stroke vs. hemorrhagic stroke. Higher CHADS(2) scores and all studied risk factors except hypertension were associated with higher odds ratio for death by ischemic stroke than hemorrhagic stroke. Ischemic stroke was associated with lower early mortality (within 30 days) vs. hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio = 0·28, confidence interval 0·27 to 0·29). Patients with hemorrhagic stroke had a higher risk of dying within the first 30 days after stroke, but the risk of death was similar in the two groups after one-month. Hypertension was the only cardiovascular disease risk factor associated with an increased mortality rate for hemorrhagic stroke as compared to ischemic stroke. © 2011 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2011 World Stroke Organization.

Validated Risk Score for Predicting 6-Month Mortality in Infective Endocarditis.

PubMed

Park, Lawrence P; Chu, Vivian H; Peterson, Gail; Skoutelis, Athanasios; Lejko-Zupa, Tatjana; Bouza, Emilio; Tattevin, Pierre; Habib, Gilbert; Tan, Ren; Gonzalez, Javier; Altclas, Javier; Edathodu, Jameela; Fortes, Claudio Querido; Siciliano, Rinaldo Focaccia; Pachirat, Orathai; Kanj, Souha; Wang, Andrew

2016-04-18

Host factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6-month mortality in IE. Using a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]-Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000-2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6-month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE-PLUS, 2008-2012, n=1197). The 6-month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE-PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE-PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left-sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6-month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables. Six-month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Where does distance matter? Distance to the closest maternity unit and risk of foetal and neonatal mortality in France.

PubMed

Pilkington, Hugo; Blondel, Béatrice; Drewniak, Nicolas; Zeitlin, Jennifer

2014-12-01

The number of maternity units has declined in France, raising concerns about the possible impact of increasing travel distances on perinatal health outcomes. We investigated impact of distance to closest maternity unit on perinatal mortality. Data from the French National Vital Statistics Registry were used to construct foetal and neonatal mortality rates over 2001-08 by distance from mother's municipality of residence and the closest municipality with a maternity unit. Data from French neonatal mortality certificates were used to compute neonatal death rates after out-of-hospital birth. Relative risks by distance were estimated, adjusting for individual and municipal-level characteristics. Seven percent of births occurred to women residing at ≥30 km from a maternity unit and 1% at ≥45 km. Foetal and neonatal mortality rates were highest for women living at <5 km from a maternity unit. For foetal mortality, rates increased at ≥45 km compared with 5-45 km. In adjusted models, long distance to a maternity unit had no impact on overall mortality but women living closer to a maternity unit had a higher risk of neonatal mortality. Neonatal deaths associated with out-of-hospital birth were rare but more frequent at longer distances. At the municipal-level, higher percentages of unemployment and foreign-born residents were associated with increased mortality. Overall mortality was not associated with living far from a maternity unit. Mortality was elevated in municipalities with social risk factors and located closest to a maternity unit, reflecting the location of maternity units in deprived areas with risk factors for poor outcome. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

Premature mortality in active convulsive epilepsy in rural Kenya: causes and associated factors.

PubMed

Ngugi, Anthony K; Bottomley, Christian; Fegan, Gregory; Chengo, Eddie; Odhiambo, Rachael; Bauni, Evasius; Neville, Brian; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Sander, Josemir W; Newton, Charles R

2014-02-18

We estimated premature mortality and identified causes of death and associated factors in people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) in rural Kenya. In this prospective population-based study, people with ACE were identified in a cross-sectional survey and followed up regularly for 3 years, during which information on deaths and associated factors was collected. We used a validated verbal autopsy tool to establish putative causes of death. Age-specific rate ratios and standardized mortality ratios were estimated. Poisson regression was used to identify mortality risk factors. There were 61 deaths among 754 people with ACE, yielding a rate of 33.3/1,000 persons/year. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 6.5. Mortality was higher across all ACE age groups. Nonadherence to antiepileptic drugs (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 3.37), cognitive impairment (aRR 4.55), and age (50+ years) (rate ratio 4.56) were risk factors for premature mortality. Most deaths (56%) were directly related to epilepsy, with prolonged seizures/possible status epilepticus (38%) most frequently associated with death; some of these may have been due to sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). Possible SUDEP was the likely cause in another 7%. Mortality in people with ACE was more than 6-fold greater than expected. This may be reduced by improving treatment adherence and prompt management of prolonged seizures and supporting those with cognitive impairment.

Community-acquired pneumonia in patients with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Molinos, L; Clemente, M G; Miranda, B; Alvarez, C; del Busto, B; Cocina, B R; Alvarez, F; Gorostidi, J; Orejas, C

2009-06-01

The purpose of this study was to analyse the possible differences, especially those regarding mortality, between patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and the risk factors related to mortality in the COPD group. 710 patients with CAP were included in a prospective multicenter observational study. 244 of the patients had COPD confirmed by spirometry. COPD was associated with mortality in patients with CAP (OR=2.62 CI: 1.08-6.39). Patients with COPD and CAP had a significantly higher 30-day mortality rate as compared to patients without COPD. Multivariate analysis showed that PaO(2)< or =60 mmHg (OR=7.95; 95% CI: 3.40-27.5), PaCO(2)> or =45 mmHg (OR=4.6; CI: 2.3-15.1); respiratory rate > or =30/min (OR=12.25; CI: 3.45-35.57), pleural effusion (OR=8.6; 95% CI: 2.01-24.7), septic shock (OR=12.6; 95% CI: 3.4-45.66) and renal failure (OR=13.4; 95% CI: 3.2-37.8) were significantly related to mortality. Purulent sputum and fever were considered as protective factors. COPD was an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with CAP. Hypoxemia and hypercapnia are associated with mortality in patients with CAP with and without COPD. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and PaCO(2) value could be useful prognostic factors and should be incorporated in risk stratification in patients with CAP.

East meets West: the influence of racial, ethnic and cultural risk factors on cardiac surgical risk model performance.

PubMed

Soo-Hoo, Sarah; Nemeth, Samantha; Baser, Onur; Argenziano, Michael; Kurlansky, Paul

2018-01-01

To explore the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the performance of cardiac surgical risk models, the Chinese SinoSCORE was compared with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model in a diverse American population. The SinoSCORE risk model was applied to 13 969 consecutive coronary artery bypass surgery patients from twelve American institutions. SinoSCORE risk factors were entered into a logistic regression to create a 'derived' SinoSCORE whose performance was compared with that of the STS risk model. Observed mortality was 1.51% (66% of that predicted by STS model). The SinoSCORE 'low-risk' group had a mortality of 0.15%±0.04%, while the medium-risk and high-risk groups had mortalities of 0.35%±0.06% and 2.13%±0.14%, respectively. The derived SinoSCORE model had a relatively good discrimination (area under of the curve (AUC)=0.785) compared with that of the STS risk score (AUC=0.811; P=0.18 comparing the two). However, specific factors that were significant in the original SinoSCORE but that lacked significance in our derived model included body mass index, preoperative atrial fibrillation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SinoSCORE demonstrated limited discrimination when applied to an American population. The derived SinoSCORE had a discrimination comparable with that of the STS, suggesting underlying similarities of physiological substrate undergoing surgery. However, differential influence of various risk factors suggests that there may be varying degrees of importance and interactions between risk factors. Clinicians should exercise caution when applying risk models across varying populations due to potential differences that racial, ethnic and geographic factors may play in cardiac disease and surgical outcomes.

Risks associated with preweaning mortality in 855 litters on 39 commercial outdoor pig farms in England

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A prospective longitudinal study was carried out on 39 outdoor breeding pig farms in England to investigate the risks associated with mortality in preweaning piglets. Risk factor data were collected from a questionnaire with the farmer and observations of the farm made by the researcher. Prospectiv...

Risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted to a regional trauma center after sustaining a fall.

PubMed

Cartagena, L J; Kang, A; Munnangi, S; Jordan, A; Nweze, I C; Sasthakonar, V; Boutin, A; George Angus, L D

2017-06-01

Falls are a significant cause of mortality in the elderly patients. Despite this, the literature on in-hospital mortality related to elderly falls remains sparse. Our study aims to determine the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted to a regional trauma center after sustaining a fall. All elderly case records with fall-related injuries between 2003 and 2013 were retrospectively analyzed for demographic characteristics, injury severities, comorbidity factors and clinical outcomes. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. In total, 1026 elderly patients with fall-related injuries were included in the study. The average age of patients was 80.94 ± 8.16 years. Seventy seven percent of the patients had at least one comorbid condition. Majority of the falls occurred at home. More than half of the patients fell from ground level. Overall, the in-hospital mortality rate was 16 %. Head injury constituted the most common injury sustained in patients who died (77 %). In addition to age, ISS, GCS, ICU admission and anemia were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with in-hospital deaths in elderly fall patients. Ground-level falls in the elderly can be devastating and carry a significant mortality rate. Elderly patients with anemia were two times more likely to die in the hospital after sustaining a fall in our study population. Increased focus on anemia which is often underappreciated in elderly fall patients can be beneficial in improving outcomes and reducing in-hospital mortality.

The risk factors for mortality and septic shock in liver transplant recipients with ESKAPE bacteremia.

PubMed

Ouyang, Wen; Li, Xiaoxiao; Wan, Qiquan; Ye, Qifa

2015-01-01

Although bacteremias due to the six ESKAPE pathogens have recently been identified as a serious emerging problems in solid organ transplant (SOT), no information in liver transplant recipients is available. We sought to investigate the risk factors for mortality and septic shock in liver transplant recipients with ESKAPE bacteremia. A retrospective analysis of bacteremia after liver transplantation was reviewed. Risk factors for mortality and septic shock caused by ESKAPE bacteremia were identified. Forty-nine episodes ofbacteremia in 37 liver transplant recipients were due to ESKAPE strains. The only factor for bacteremia-related mortality independently associated with ESKAPE was septic shock (odds ratio [OR] = 67.500, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 8.464-538.300, P < .001). The factors for septic shock independently associated with ESKAPE were white blood cells count > 15,000/mm3 (OR = 15.205, 95% CI = 2.271-101.799, P = .005) and temperature of 39 °C or greater (OR = 10.959, 95% CI = 1.592-75.450, P = .015). To improve the results of liver transplantation, more effectively therapeutic treatments are of paramount importance when liver transplant recipients with ESKAPE bacteremia present with septic shock, elevated white blood cells count and high body temperature.

Mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians and associated factors.

PubMed

Hyde, Zoë; Smith, Kate; Flicker, Leon; Atkinson, David; Almeida, Osvaldo P; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Dwyer, Anna; LoGiudice, Dina

2018-01-01

We aimed to describe mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians using electronic record linkage. Between 2004 and 2006, 363 Aboriginal people living in remote Western Australia (WA) completed a questionnaire assessing medical history and behavioural risk factors. We obtained mortality records for the cohort from the WA Data Linkage System and compared them to data for the general population. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of mortality over a 9-year follow-up period. The leading causes of mortality were diabetes, renal failure, and ischaemic heart disease. Diabetes and renal failure accounted for 28% of all deaths. This differed from both the Australian population as a whole, and the general Indigenous Australian population. The presence of chronic disease did not predict mortality, nor did behaviours such as smoking. Only age, male sex, poor mobility, and cognitive impairment were risk factors. To reduce premature mortality, public health practitioners should prioritise the prevention and treatment of diabetes and renal disease in Aboriginal people in remote WA. This will require a sustained and holistic approach.

Mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians and associated factors

PubMed Central

Hyde, Zoë; Smith, Kate; Flicker, Leon; Atkinson, David; Almeida, Osvaldo P.; Lautenschlager, Nicola T.; Dwyer, Anna

2018-01-01

Objectives We aimed to describe mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians using electronic record linkage. Methods Between 2004 and 2006, 363 Aboriginal people living in remote Western Australia (WA) completed a questionnaire assessing medical history and behavioural risk factors. We obtained mortality records for the cohort from the WA Data Linkage System and compared them to data for the general population. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of mortality over a 9-year follow-up period. Results The leading causes of mortality were diabetes, renal failure, and ischaemic heart disease. Diabetes and renal failure accounted for 28% of all deaths. This differed from both the Australian population as a whole, and the general Indigenous Australian population. The presence of chronic disease did not predict mortality, nor did behaviours such as smoking. Only age, male sex, poor mobility, and cognitive impairment were risk factors. Conclusions To reduce premature mortality, public health practitioners should prioritise the prevention and treatment of diabetes and renal disease in Aboriginal people in remote WA. This will require a sustained and holistic approach. PMID:29621272

Obesity and vehicle type as risk factors for injury caused by motor vehicle collision.

PubMed

Donnelly, John P; Griffin, Russell Lee; Sathiakumar, Nalini; McGwin, Gerald

2014-04-01

This study sought to describe variations in the risk of motor vehicle collision (MVC) injury and death by occupant body mass index (BMI) class and vehicle type. We hypothesized that the relationship between BMI and the risk of MVC injury or mortality would be modified by vehicle type. This is a retrospective cohort study of occupants involved in MVCs using data from the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network and the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System. Occupants were grouped based on vehicle body style (passenger car, sport utility vehicle, or light truck) and vehicle size (compact or normal, corresponding to below- or above-average curb weight). The relationship between occupant BMI class (underweight, normal weight, overweight, or obese) and risk of injury or mortality was examined for each vehicle type. Odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for various occupant and collision characteristics were estimated. Of an estimated 44 million occupants of MVCs sampled from 2000 to 2009, 37.1% sustained an injury. We limited our analysis to injuries achieving an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of 2 or more severe, totaling 17 million injuries. Occupants differed substantially in terms of demographic and collision characteristics. After adjustment for confounding factors, we found that obesity was a risk factor for mortality caused by MVC (OR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-2.0). When stratified by vehicle type, we found that obesity was a risk factor for mortality in larger vehicles, including any-sized light trucks (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3-3.5), normal-sized passenger cars (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.3), and normal-sized sports utility vehicles or vans (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0-3.8). Being overweight was a risk factor in any-sized light trucks (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1). We identified a significant interaction between occupant BMI class and vehicle type in terms of MVC-related mortality risk. Both factors should be taken into account when considering occupant safety, and additional study is needed to determine underlying causes of the observed relationships. Epidemiologic study, level III.

Mild to moderate cognitive impairment is a major risk factor for mortality and nursing home admission in the first year after hip fracture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It is not well established if and to what extent mild to moderate cognitive impairment predicts mortality and risk of nursing home admission after hip fracture. To investigate prospectively whether and to what extent mild to moderate cognitive impairment, contributes to mortality and admission to nu...

[Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province].

PubMed

Xu, Ai-qiang; Sun, Jian-dong; Lu, Zi-long; Ma, Ji-xiang; Fu, Zhen-tao; Guo, Xiao-lei

2008-10-01

To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making, using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD methodology. Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study. The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. 51.09% of the total deaths and 31.83% of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors. High blood pressure, smoking, low fruit and vegetable intake, alcohol consumption, indoor smoke from solid fuels, high cholesterol, urban air pollution, physical inactivity, overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk factors for mortality which together caused 50.21% of the total deaths. Alcohol use, smoking, high blood pressure, low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity, high cholesterol, physical inactivity, urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04% of the total DALYs. Alcohol use, smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

Risk-adjusted outcome measurement in pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Matthes-Martin, Susanne; Pötschger, Ulrike; Bergmann, Kirsten; Frommlet, Florian; Brannath, Werner; Bauer, Peter; Klingebiel, Thomas

2008-03-01

The purpose of the study was to define a risk score for 1-year treatment-related mortality (TRM) in children undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation as a basis for risk-adjusted outcome assessment. We analyzed 1364 consecutive stem cell transplants performed in 24 German and Austrian centers between 1998 and 2003. Five well-established risk factors were tested by multivariate logistic regression for predictive power: patient age, disease status, donor other than matched sibling donor, T cell depletion (TCD), and preceding stem cell transplantation. The risk score was defined by rounding the parameter estimates of the significant risk factors to the nearest integer. Crossvalidation was performed on the basis of 5 randomly extracted equal-sized parts from the database. Additionally, the score was validated for different disease entities and for single centers. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant correlation of TRM with 3 risk factors: age >10 years, advanced disease, and alternative donor. The parameter estimates were 0.76 for age, 0.73 for disease status, and 0.97 for donor type. Rounding the estimates resulted in a score with 1 point for each risk factor. One-year TRM (overall survival [OS]) were 5% (89%) with a score of 0, 18% (74%) with 1, 28% (54%) with 2, and 53% (27%) with 3 points. Crossvalidation showed stable results with a good correlation between predicted and observed mortality but moderate discrimination. The score seems to be a simple instrument to estimate the expected mortality for each risk group and for each center. Measuring TRM risk-adjusted and the comparison between expected and observed mortality may be an additional tool for outcome assessment in pediatric stem cell transplantation.

Factors affecting early and long-term outcomes after completion pneumonectomy.

PubMed

Chataigner, Olivier; Fadel, Elie; Yildizeli, Bedrettin; Achir, Abdallah; Mussot, Sacha; Fabre, Dominique; Mercier, Olaf; Dartevelle, Philippe G

2008-05-01

To identify factors that affect operative mortality and morbidity and long-term survival after completion pneumonectomy. We retrospectively reviewed the charts of consecutive patients who underwent completion pneumonectomy at our cardiothoracic surgery department from January 1996 to December 2005. We identified 69 patients, who accounted for 17.8% of all pneumonectomies during the study period; 22 had benign disease and 47 malignant disease (second primary lung cancer, n=19; local recurrence, n=17; or metastasis, n=11). There were 50 males and 19 females with a mean age of 60 years (range, 29-80 years). Postoperative mortality was 12% and postoperative morbidity 41%. Factors associated with postoperative mortality included obesity (p=0.005), coronary artery disease (p=0.03), removal of the right lung (p=0.02), advanced age (p=0.02), and renal failure (p<0.0001). Preoperative renal failure was the only significant risk factor for mortality by multivariate analysis (p=0.036). Bronchopleural fistula developed in seven patients (10%), with risk factors being removal of the right lung (p=0.04) and mechanical stump closure (p=0.03). Overall survival was 65% after 3 years and 46% after 5 years. Long-term survival was not affected by the reason for completion pneumonectomy. Although long-term survival was acceptable, postoperative mortality and morbidity rates remained high, confirming the reputation of completion pneumonectomy as a challenging procedure. Significant comorbidities and removal of the right lung were the main risk factors for postoperative mortality. Improved patient selection and better management of preoperative renal failure may improve the postoperative outcomes of this procedure, which offers a chance for prolonged survival.

State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

PubMed

Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

2009-05-01

To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are potentially modifiable, significantly contributed to differences in state IMR. State risk adjusted IMR indicate that other factors impact infant mortality after adjustment by race/ethnicity and other risk factors.

The Magnitude of Mortality from Ischemic Heart Disease Attributed to Occupational Factors in Korea - Attributable Fraction Estimation Using Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ha, Jaehyeok; Kim, Soo-Geun; Paek, Domyung; Park, Jungsun

2011-03-01

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a major cause of death in Korea and known to result from several occupational factors. This study attempted to estimate the current magnitude of IHD mortality due to occupational factors in Korea. After selecting occupational risk factors by literature investigation, we calculated attributable fractions (AFs) from relative risks and exposure data for each factor. Relative risks were estimated using meta-analysis based on published research. Exposure data were collected from the 2006 Survey of Korean Working Conditions. Finally, we estimated 2006 occupation-related IHD mortality. FOR THE FACTORS CONSIDERED, WE ESTIMATED THE FOLLOWING RELATIVE RISKS: noise 1.06, environmental tobacco smoke 1.19 (men) and 1.22 (women), shift work 1.12, and low job control 1.15 (men) and 1.08 (women). Combined AFs of those factors in the IHD were estimated at 9.29% (0.3-18.51%) in men and 5.78% (-7.05-19.15%) in women. Based on these fractions, Korea's 2006 death toll from occupational IHD between the age of 15 and 69 was calculated at 353 in men (total 3,804) and 72 in women (total 1,246). We estimated occupational IHD mortality of Korea with updated data and more relevant evidence. Despite the efforts to obtain reliable estimates, there were many assumptions and limitations that must be overcome. Future research based on more precise design and reliable evidence is required for more accurate estimates.

The importance of waist circumference in the definition of metabolic syndrome: prospective analyses of mortality in men.

PubMed

Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Janssen, Ian; Ross, Robert; Church, Timothy S; Blair, Steven N

2006-02-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive ability of the National Cholesterol Education Panel (NCEP), revised NCEP (NCEP-R), and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) metabolic syndrome criteria for mortality risk, and to examine the effects of waist circumference on mortality within the context of these criteria. The sample included 20,789 white, non-Hispanic men 20-83 years of age from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. The main outcome measures were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality over 11.4 years of follow-up. The proportions of men with the metabolic syndrome were 19.7, 27, and 30% at baseline, respectively, according to NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF criteria. A total of 632 deaths (213 CVD) occurred. The relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs of all-cause mortality were 1.36 (1.14-1.62), 1.31 (1.11-1.54), and 1.26 (1.07-1.49) for the NCEP, NCEP-R, and IDF definitions, respectively. The corresponding RRs for CVD mortality were 1.79 (1.35-2.37), 1.67 (1.27-2.19), and 1.67 (1.27-2.20). Additionally, there was a significant trend for a higher risk of CVD mortality across waist circumference categories (<94, 94-102, and >102 cm) among men with at least two additional metabolic syndrome risk factors (P = 0.01). The prediction of mortality with IDF and NCEP metabolic syndrome criteria was comparable in men. Waist circumference is a valuable component of metabolic syndrome; however, the IDF requirement of an elevated waist circumference warrants caution given that a large proportion of men with normal waist circumference have multiple risk factors and an increased risk of mortality.

Impact of Renal Impairment on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality After Liver Transplantation for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

VanWagner, Lisa B.; Lapin, Brittany; Skaro, Anton I.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Rinella, Mary E.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND & AIMS Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity after liver transplantation, but its impact on CVD mortality is unknown. We sought to assess the impact of NASH on CVD mortality after liver transplantation and to predict which NASH recipients are at highest risk of a CVD-related death following a liver transplant. METHODS Using the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database we examined associations between NASH and post liver transplant CVD mortality, defined as primary cause of death from thromboembolism, arrhythmia, heart failure, myocardial infarction, or stroke. A physician panel reviewed cause of death. RESULTS Of 48,360 liver transplants (2/2002–12/2011), 5,057 (10.5%) were performed for NASH cirrhosis. NASH recipients were more likely to be older, female, obese, diabetic, and have history of renal failure or prior CVD versus non-NASH (p<0.001 for all). Although there was no difference in overall all-cause mortality (log-rank p=0.96), both early (30-day) and long-term CVD-specific mortality was increased among NASH recipients (Odds ratio=1.30, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.02–1.66; Hazard ratio=1.42, 95% CI: 1.07–1.41, respectively). These associations were no longer significant after adjustment for pre-transplant diabetes, renal impairment or CVD. A risk score comprising age ≥ 55, male sex, diabetes and renal impairment was developed for prediction of post liver transplant CVD mortality (c-statistic 0.60). CONCLUSION NASH recipients have an increased risk of CVD mortality after liver transplantation explained by a high prevalence of co-morbid cardiometabolic risk factors that in aggregate identify those at highest risk of post-transplant CVD mortality. PMID:25977117

Perioperative risk factors for mortality and length of hospitalization in mares with dystocia undergoing general anesthesia: A retrospective study

PubMed Central

Rioja, Eva; Cernicchiaro, Natalia; Costa, Maria Carolina; Valverde, Alexander

2012-01-01

This study investigated associations between perioperative factors and probability of death and length of hospitalization of mares with dystocia that survived following general anesthesia. Demographics and perioperative characteristics from 65 mares were reviewed retrospectively and used in a risk factor analysis. Mortality rate was 21.5% during the first 24 h post-anesthesia. The mean ± standard deviation number of days of hospitalization of surviving mares was 6.3 ± 5.4 d. Several factors were found in the univariable analysis to be significantly associated (P < 0.1) with increased probability of perianesthetic death, including: low preoperative total protein, high temperature and severe dehydration on presentation, prolonged dystocia, intraoperative hypotension, and drugs used during recovery. Type of delivery and day of the week the surgery was performed were significantly associated with length of hospitalization in the multivariable mixed effects model. The study identified some risk factors that may allow clinicians to better estimate the probability of mortality and morbidity in these mares. PMID:23115362

Impact of traditional therapies and biologics on cardiovascular diseases in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Boyer, Jean-Frédéric; Cantagrel, Alain; Constantin, Arnaud

2008-07-01

In chronic inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), systemic inflammation appears as an independent risk factor, contributing to increased cardiovascular mortality. This high cardiovascular mortality reveals the existence of accelerated atherosclerosis, the pathogenesis of which may be associated with traditional risk factors such as smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, deterioration of insulin sensitivity, and less traditional risk factors such as hyperhomocysteinemia, inflammatory conditions and endothelial dysfunction. Control of systemic inflammation theoretically provides a means of preventing this higher cardiovascular mortality among RA patients. In this review we address the question of the impact of anti-rheumatic drugs currently used in RA, such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (e.g. non-selective or cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitors), steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (glucocorticoids), traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (e.g. methotrexate) or biologics (e.g. anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha) on cardiovascular diseases in RA patients. We also discuss the specific mechanisms involved in the differential cardiovascular effects of these therapeutic agents.

Socioeconomic deprivation impact on meat intake and mortality: NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

PubMed

Major, Jacqueline M; Cross, Amanda J; Doubeni, Chyke A; Park, Yikyung; Lian, Min; Hollenbeck, Albert R; Schatzkin, Arthur; Graubard, Barry I; Sinha, Rashmi

2011-12-01

Previous studies have not examined potential interactions between meat intake and characteristics of the local environment on the risk of mortality. This study examined the impact of area socioeconomic deprivation on the association between meat intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality after accounting for individual-level risk factors. In the prospective NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, we analyzed data from adults, ages 50-71 years at baseline (1995-1996). Individual-level dietary intake and health risk information were linked to the demographic and socioeconomic context of participants' local environment based on census tract data. Deaths (n = 33,831) were identified through December 2005. Multilevel Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quintiles of area deprivation scores. Associations of red and processed meats with mortality were consistent across deprivation quintiles. Men residing in least-deprived neighborhoods had a stronger protective effect for white meat consumption. No differences by deprivation index were observed for women. Red and processed meat intake increases mortality risk regardless of level of deprivation within a given neighborhood suggesting biological mechanisms rather than neighborhood contextual factors may underlie these meat-mortality associations. The effect of white meat intake on cancer mortality was modified by area deprivation among men.

Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

PubMed Central

Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

Mortality in patients with psoriasis. A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Rossi, Emiliano; Galimberti, María Laura; Krauss, Juan; Navarro Estrada, José; Galimberti, Ricardo; Cagide, Arturo

2017-06-07

The immune and inflammatory pathways involved in psoriasis could favor the development of atherosclerosis, consequently increasing mortality. The objectives of this study were: 1) to assess the mortality of a population with psoriasis compared to a control group, and 2) to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. A retrospective cohort was analyzed from a secondary database (electronic medical record). All patients with a diagnosis of psoriasis at 1-01-2010 were included in the study and compared to a control group of the same health system, selected randomly (1:1). Subjects with a history of cardiovascular disease were excluded from the study. A survival analysis was performed considering death from any cause as an event. Follow-up was extended until 30-06-2015. We included 1,481 subjects with psoriasis and 1,500 controls. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors was higher in the group with psoriasis. The average follow-up time was 4.6±1.7 years. Mortality was higher in psoriasis patients compared to controls (15.1 vs. 9.6 events per 1,000 person-year, P<.005). Psoriasis was seen to be significantly associated with increased mortality rates compared to the control group in the univariate analysis (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.16-2.15, P=.004) and after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.08-2.3, P=.014). In this population, patients with psoriasis showed a higher prevalence for the onset of cardiovascular risk factors as well as higher mortality rates during follow-up. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Continuous decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Japan despite a continuous and marked rise in total cholesterol: Japanese experience after the Seven Countries Study.

PubMed

Sekikawa, Akira; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Miura, Katsuyuki; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Willcox, Bradley J; Masaki, Kamal H; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Tracy, Russell P; Okamura, Tomonori; Kuller, Lewis H

2015-10-01

The Seven Countries Study in the 1960s showed very low mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Japan, which was attributed to very low levels of total cholesterol. Studies of migrant Japanese to the USA in the 1970s documented increase in CHD rates, thus CHD mortality in Japan was expected to increase as their lifestyle became Westernized, yet CHD mortality has continued to decline since 1970. This study describes trends in CHD mortality and its risk factors since 1980 in Japan, contrasting those in other selected developed countries. We selected Australia, Canada, France, Japan, Spain, Sweden, the UK and the USA. CHD mortality between 1980 and 2007 was obtained from WHO Statistical Information System. National data on traditional risk factors during the same period were obtained from literature and national surveys. Age-adjusted CHD mortality continuously declined between 1980 and 2007 in all these countries. The decline was accompanied by a constant fall in total cholesterol except Japan where total cholesterol continuously rose. In the birth cohort of individuals currently aged 50-69 years, levels of total cholesterol have been higher in Japan than in the USA, yet CHD mortality in Japan remained the lowest: >67% lower in men and > 75% lower in women compared with the USA. The direction and magnitude of changes in other risk factors were generally similar between Japan and the other countries. Decline in CHD mortality despite a continuous rise in total cholesterol is unique. The observation may suggest some protective factors unique to Japanese. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

WHipple-ABACUS, a simple, validated risk score for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy developed using the ACS-NSQIP database.

PubMed

Gleeson, Elizabeth M; Shaikh, Mohammad F; Shewokis, Patricia A; Clarke, John R; Meyers, William C; Pitt, Henry A; Bowne, Wilbur B

2016-11-01

Pancreaticoduodenectomy needs simple, validated risk models to better identify 30-day mortality. The goal of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy. We reviewed cases of pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2005-2012 in the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program databases. Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative risk factors for morbidity and mortality from a development cohort. Scores were created using weighted beta coefficients, and predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort using receiver operator characteristic curves and measuring area under the curve. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.7% for patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 14,993). We identified 8 independent risk factors. The score created from weighted beta coefficients had an area under the curve of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.77) on the validation cohort. Using the score WHipple-ABACUS (hypertension With medication + History of cardiac surgery + Age >62 + 2 × Bleeding disorder + Albumin <3.5 g/dL + 2 × disseminated Cancer + 2 × Use of steroids + 2 × Systemic inflammatory response syndrome), mortality rates increase with increasing score (P < .001). While other risk scores exist for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy, we present a simple, validated score developed using exclusively preoperative predictors surgeons could use to identify patients at risk for this procedure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atrial Fibrillation in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Prevalence, Clinical Correlations, and Mortality in a Large High‐Risk Population

PubMed Central

Siontis, Konstantinos C.; Geske, Jeffrey B.; Ong, Kevin; Nishimura, Rick A.; Ommen, Steve R.; Gersh, Bernard J.

2014-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common sequela of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but evidence on its prevalence, risk factors, and effect on mortality is sparse. We sought to evaluate the prevalence of AF, identify clinical and echocardiographic correlates, and assess its effect on mortality in a large high‐risk HCM population. Methods and Results We identified HCM patients who underwent evaluation at our institution from 1975 to 2012. AF was defined by known history (either chronic or paroxysmal), electrocardiogram, or Holter monitoring at index visit. We examined clinical and echocardiographic variables in association with AF. The effect of AF on overall and cause‐specific mortality was evaluated with multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Of 3673 patients with HCM, 650 (18%) had AF. Patients with AF were older and more symptomatic (P<0.001). AF was less common among patients with obstructive HCM phenotype and was associated with larger left atria, higher E/e’ ratios, and worse cardiopulmonary exercise tolerance (all P values<0.001). During median (interquartile range) follow‐up of 4.1 (0.2 to 10) years, 1069 (29%) patients died. Patients with AF had worse survival compared to those without AF (P<0.001). In multivariate analysis adjusted for established risk factors of mortality in HCM, the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for the effect of AF on overall mortality was 1.48 (1.27 to 1.71). AF did not have an effect on sudden or nonsudden cardiac death. Conclusions In this large referral HCM population, approximately 1 in 5 patients had AF. AF was a strong predictor of mortality, even after adjustment for established risk factors. PMID:24965028

Association between maternal nutritional extremes and offspring mortality: A population-based cross-sectional study, Brazil, Demographic Health Survey 2006.

PubMed

Felisbino-Mendes, Mariana Santos; Moreira, Alexandra Dias; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo

2015-09-01

to estimate the association between maternal nutritional extremes and offspring mortality in the Brazilian population. this cross-sectional study used secondary data from Brazilian women of reproductive age obtained from the National Demographic and Health Survey 2006. Maternal anthropometric indices were used: height, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference. Logistic regression modelling was used to evaluate the relationship between obesity and offspring mortality. The data analysis was appropriate for the complex sample design. children of mothers of short stature were at greater risk of death in the postnatal period than children of mothers of normal height, even after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics [odds ratio (OR) 4.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31-15.77]. Maternal obesity was associated with mortality, and children whose mothers were abdominally obese were at greater risk of dying in the neonatal period (OR 3.19, 95% CI 1.23-8.27). Children of mothers who were overweight or obese (BMI≥25kg/m(2)) were at greater risk of dying in the neonatal period (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.12-5.16), and children of malnourished mothers (BMI<18.5kg/m(2)) were at greater risk of dying during the postneonatal period (OR 9.47, 95% CI 2.07-43.41). maternal obesity is a risk factor for neonatal death, maternal malnutrition is a risk factor for postneonatal death, and maternal short stature is a risk factor for mortality among Brazilian children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Family history of premature myocardial infarction, life course socioeconomic position and coronary heart disease mortality--A Cohort of Norway (CONOR) study.

PubMed

Fiskå, Bendik S; Ariansen, Inger; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Tell, Grethe S; Egeland, Grace M; Næss, Øyvind

2015-01-01

To investigate self-reported family history (FH) of premature myocardial infarction (MI) in first-degree relatives as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, and assess whether any observed effect could be explained by current or life course socioeconomic position. 130,066 participants from Cohort of Norway were examined during 1994-2003. A subgroup (n=84,631) had additional life course socioeconomic data. Using Cox proportional hazard analyses, we calculated hazard ratios (HR) for CHD mortality, assessed by linkages to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry through 2009. For subgroup analyses, we created an index of life course socioeconomic position, and assessed its role as a potential confounder in the association of FH with CHD. For men, MI in parents and siblings were both a significant risk factor for CHD mortality after adjusting for established risk factors and current socioeconomic conditions; the highest risk was with MI in siblings (HR: 1.44 [1.19-1.75]). For women, FH constituted significant risk after similar adjustment only for those with MI in parents plus siblings (HR: 1.78 [1.16-2.73]). Adjusting for current and life course socioeconomic conditions only marginally lowered the estimates, and those with FH did not have worse life course socioeconomic position than those without. FH of premature MI is an independent risk factor for CHD mortality that differs in magnitude of effect by the sex of the index person and type of familial relationship. Life course socioeconomic position has little impact on the association between FH and CHD, suggesting the effect is not confounded by this. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Firearm Homicide and Other Causes of Death in Delinquents: A 16-Year Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Jakubowski, Jessica A.; Abram, Karen M.; Olson, Nichole D.; Stokes, Marquita L.; Welty, Leah J.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Delinquent youth are at risk for early violent death after release from detention. However, few studies have examined risk factors for mortality. Previous investigations studied only serious offenders (a fraction of the juvenile justice population) and provided little data on females. METHODS: The Northwestern Juvenile Project is a prospective longitudinal study of health needs and outcomes of a stratified random sample of 1829 youth (657 females, 1172 males; 524 Hispanic, 1005 African American, 296 non-Hispanic white, 4 other race/ethnicity) detained between 1995 and 1998. Data on risk factors were drawn from interviews; death records were obtained up to 16 years after detention. We compared all-cause mortality rates and causes of death with those of the general population. Survival analyses were used to examine risk factors for mortality after youth leave detention. RESULTS: Delinquent youth have higher mortality rates than the general population to age 29 years (P < .05), irrespective of gender or race/ethnicity. Females died at nearly 5 times the general population rate (P < .05); Hispanic males and females died at 5 and 9 times the general population rates, respectively (P < .05). Compared with the general population, significantly more delinquent youth died of homicide and its subcategory, homicide by firearm (P < .05). Among delinquent youth, racial/ethnic minorities were at increased risk of homicide compared with non-Hispanic whites (P < .05). Significant risk factors for external-cause mortality and homicide included drug dealing (up to 9 years later), alcohol use disorder, and gang membership (up to a decade later). CONCLUSIONS: Delinquent youth are an identifiable target population to reduce disparities in early violent death. PMID:24936005

Ethnicity Modifies Associations between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Disease Severity in Parallel Dutch and Singapore Coronary Cohorts

PubMed Central

Gijsberts, Crystel M.; Seneviratna, Aruni; de Carvalho, Leonardo P.; den Ruijter, Hester M.; Vidanapthirana, Puwalani; Sorokin, Vitaly; Stella, Pieter; Agostoni, Pierfrancesco; Asselbergs, Folkert W.; Richards, A. Mark; Low, Adrian F.; Lee, Chi-Hang; Tan, Huay Cheem; Hoefer, Imo E.; Pasterkamp, Gerard; de Kleijn, Dominique P. V.; Chan, Mark Y.

2015-01-01

Background In 2020 the largest number of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) will be found in Asia. Published epidemiological and clinical reports are overwhelmingly derived from western (White) cohorts and data from Asia are scant. We compared CAD severity and all-cause mortality among 4 of the world’s most populous ethnicities: Whites, Chinese, Indians and Malays. Methods The UNIted CORoNary cohort (UNICORN) simultaneously enrolled parallel populations of consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography or intervention for suspected CAD in the Netherlands and Singapore. Using multivariable ordinal regression, we investigated the independent association of ethnicity with CAD severity and interactions between risk factors and ethnicity on CAD severity. Also, we compared all-cause mortality among the ethnic groups using multivariable Cox regression analysis. Results We included 1,759 White, 685 Chinese, 201 Indian and 224 Malay patients undergoing coronary angiography. We found distinct inter-ethnic differences in cardiovascular risk factors. Furthermore, the associations of gender and diabetes with severity of CAD were significantly stronger in Chinese than Whites. Chinese (OR 1.3 [1.1–1.7], p = 0.008) and Malay (OR 1.9 [1.4–2.6], p<0.001) ethnicity were independently associated with more severe CAD as compared to White ethnicity. Strikingly, when stratified for diabetes status, we found a significant association of all three Asian ethnic groups as compared to White ethnicity with more severe CAD among diabetics, but not in non-diabetics. Crude all-cause mortality did not differ, but when adjusted for covariates mortality was higher in Malays than the other ethnic groups. Conclusion In this population of individuals undergoing coronary angiography, ethnicity is independently associated with the severity of CAD and modifies the strength of association between certain risk factors and CAD severity. Furthermore, mortality differs among ethnic groups. Our data provide insight in inter-ethnic differences in CAD risk factors, CAD severity and mortality. PMID:26147693

One-hour glucose value as a long-term predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: the Malmö Preventive Project.

PubMed

Nielsen, Mette L; Pareek, Manan; Leósdóttir, Margrét; Eriksson, Karl-Fredrik; Nilsson, Peter M; Olsen, Michael H

2018-03-01

To examine the predictive capability of a 1-h vs 2-h postload glucose value for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Prospective, population-based cohort study (Malmö Preventive Project) with subject inclusion 1974-1992. 4934 men without known diabetes and cardiovascular disease, who had blood glucose (BG) measured at 0, 20, 40, 60, 90 and 120 min during an OGTT (30 g glucose per m 2 body surface area), were followed for 27 years. Data on cardiovascular events and death were obtained through national and local registries. Predictive capabilities of fasting BG (FBG) and glucose values obtained during OGTT alone and added to a clinical prediction model comprising traditional cardiovascular risk factors were assessed using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Median age was 48 (25th-75th percentile: 48-49) years and mean FBG 4.6 ± 0.6 mmol/L. FBG and 2-h postload BG did not independently predict cardiovascular events or death. Conversely, 1-h postload BG predicted cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and remained an independent predictor of cardiovascular death (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01-1.17, P  = 0.02) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.05-1.16, P  < 0.0001) after adjusting for various traditional risk factors. Clinical risk factors with added 1-h postload BG performed better than clinical risk factors alone, in predicting cardiovascular death (likelihood-ratio test, P  = 0.02) and all-cause mortality (likelihood-ratio test, P  = 0.0001; significant IDI, P  = 0.0003). Among men without known diabetes, addition of 1-h BG, but not FBG or 2-h BG, to clinical risk factors provided incremental prognostic yield for prediction of cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality. © 2018 European Society of Endocrinology.

Body Mass Index (BMI) and All-Cause Mortality Pooling Project

Cancer.gov

The BMI and All-Cause Mortality Pooling Project quantified the risk associated with being overweight and the extent to which the relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality varies by certain factors.

Marriage is a dependent risk factor for mortality of colon adenocarcinoma without a time-varying effect

PubMed Central

Yu, Wei; Chen, Jie; Xiong, Weibin; Chen, Shuang; Yu, Li

2017-01-01

Background It has been well recognized that the effects of many prognostic factors could change during long-term follow-up. Although marriage has been proven to be a significant prognostic factor for the survival of colon cancer, whether the effect of marriage is constant with time remain unknown. This study analyzed the impact of marital status on the mortality of colon cancer patients with an extended Cox model that allowed for time-varying effects. Methods We identified 71,955 patients who underwent colectomy between 2004 and 2009 to treat colon adenocarcinoma from the Surveilance, Epidemiology and End Results Database. The multivariate extended Cox model was used to evaluate the effect of marital status on all-cause mortality, while the Fine-Gray competing risks model was used for colon cancer-specific mortality, with death from other causes as the competing risk. Results The unmarried patients carried a 1.37-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with the married patients (95%CI: 1.33-1.40; p<0.001), and the hazard ratio remained constant over time. Being unmarried was at a higher risk of death from colon adenocarcinoma as well as death from other causes. Four variables including tumor site, tumor grade, sex and TNM stage were proved to have time-varying effects on survival. Conclusions Marriage is a dependent prognosis factor for survival of surgically treated colon adenocarcinoma patients. Psychological interventions are suggested to improve receipt of treatment among unmarried patients, as their poor survival may be due to the inefficient treatment. PMID:28423614

Marriage is a dependent risk factor for mortality of colon adenocarcinoma without a time-varying effect.

PubMed

Liu, Minling; Li, Lixian; Yu, Wei; Chen, Jie; Xiong, Weibin; Chen, Shuang; Yu, Li

2017-03-21

It has been well recognized that the effects of many prognostic factors could change during long-term follow-up. Although marriage has been proven to be a significant prognostic factor for the survival of colon cancer, whether the effect of marriage is constant with time remain unknown. This study analyzed the impact of marital status on the mortality of colon cancer patients with an extended Cox model that allowed for time-varying effects. We identified 71,955 patients who underwent colectomy between 2004 and 2009 to treat colon adenocarcinoma from the Surveilance, Epidemiology and End Results Database. The multivariate extended Cox model was used to evaluate the effect of marital status on all-cause mortality, while the Fine-Gray competing risks model was used for colon cancer-specific mortality, with death from other causes as the competing risk. The unmarried patients carried a 1.37-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with the married patients (95%CI: 1.33-1.40; p<0.001), and the hazard ratio remained constant over time. Being unmarried was at a higher risk of death from colon adenocarcinoma as well as death from other causes. Four variables including tumor site, tumor grade, sex and TNM stage were proved to have time-varying effects on survival. Marriage is a dependent prognosis factor for survival of surgically treated colon adenocarcinoma patients. Psychological interventions are suggested to improve receipt of treatment among unmarried patients, as their poor survival may be due to the inefficient treatment.

Depressive symptoms and cardiovascular mortality in older black and white adults: evidence for a differential association by race.

PubMed

Lewis, Tené T; Guo, Hongfei; Lunos, Scott; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F; Skarupski, Kimberly A; Evans, Denis A; Everson-Rose, Susan A

2011-05-01

An emerging body of research suggests that depressive symptoms may confer an "accelerated risk" for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in blacks compared with whites. Research in this area has been limited to cardiovascular risk factors and early markers; less is known about black-white differences in associations with important clinical end points. The authors examined the association between depressive symptoms and overall CVD mortality, ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality, and stroke mortality in a sample of 6158 (62% black; 61% female) community-dwelling older adults. Cox proportional hazards models were used to model time-to-CVD, IHD, and stroke death over a 9- to 12-year follow-up. In race-stratified models adjusted for age and sex, elevated depressive symptoms were associated with CVD mortality in blacks (hazard ratio [HR], 1.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.61 to 2.36; P<0.001) but were not significantly associated with CVD mortality in whites (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.68; P=0.11; race by depressive symptoms interaction, P=0.03). Similar findings were observed for IHD mortality (black: HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.49 to 2.64; P<0.001; white: HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.89; P=0.23) and stroke mortality (black: HR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.32 to 3.27; P=0.002; white: HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.69 to 2.52; P=0.40). Findings for total CVD mortality and IHD mortality were attenuated but remained significant after adjusting for standard risk factors. Findings for stroke were reduced to marginal significance. Elevated depressive symptoms were associated with multiple indicators of CVD mortality in older blacks but not in whites. Findings were not completely explained by standard risk factors. Efforts aimed at reducing depressive symptoms in blacks may ultimately prove beneficial for their cardiovascular health.

A comparison of risk factors and severity of ischemic stroke in female and male genders in North-West Iran: A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Talebi, Mahnaz; Ghertasi, Mohammad; Taheraghdam, Aliakbar; Andalib, Sasan; Sharifipour, Ehsan

2014-01-01

Background: Gender difference has been reported in stroke risk factors and disease history. The aim of this study was to compare risk factors and the severity of ischemic stroke based upon modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and hospital mortality between two genders. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 341 patients (44% males and 56% females with a mean age of 68.94 ± 12.74 years) with ischemic stroke, who were hospitalized in the neurology wards of two referral university hospital of North-West Iran (Imam Reza and Razi Hospitals), from the beginning to the end of 2011 were selected and assessed. Gender difference in terms of demographic findings, vascular risk factors, 7th day mRS, and hospital mortality (during admission) were evaluated. Results: In 2.6% of cases, mRS was found to be less than 2 (favorable) and in 97.4% of cases; mRS was 2-5 (with disability). No significant difference in ischemic stroke severity based on mRS was observed between two genders. There was a significant difference in the rate of hypertension (females = 72.3%, males = 59.3%, P = 0.010), diabetes (females = 28.8%, males = 18.7%, P = 0.030), smoking (females = 6.3%, males = 35.3%, P < 0.001). No significant difference was seen in other risk factors between two genders. There was no significant difference in the mortality rate, which constituted 8.9% and 4.7% in females and males respectively (P = 0.140). Conclusion: The evidence from the present study suggests that despite the existence of some difference between risk-factors in two genders, there was no difference in terms of ischemic stroke severity and mortality rate between two genders. PMID:25632333

A comparison of risk factors and severity of ischemic stroke in female and male genders in North-West Iran: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Talebi, Mahnaz; Ghertasi, Mohammad; Taheraghdam, Aliakbar; Andalib, Sasan; Sharifipour, Ehsan

2014-10-06

Gender difference has been reported in stroke risk factors and disease history. The aim of this study was to compare risk factors and the severity of ischemic stroke based upon modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and hospital mortality between two genders. In a cross-sectional study, 341 patients (44% males and 56% females with a mean age of 68.94 ± 12.74 years) with ischemic stroke, who were hospitalized in the neurology wards of two referral university hospital of North-West Iran (Imam Reza and Razi Hospitals), from the beginning to the end of 2011 were selected and assessed. Gender difference in terms of demographic findings, vascular risk factors, 7(th) day mRS, and hospital mortality (during admission) were evaluated. In 2.6% of cases, mRS was found to be less than 2 (favorable) and in 97.4% of cases; mRS was 2-5 (with disability). No significant difference in ischemic stroke severity based on mRS was observed between two genders. There was a significant difference in the rate of hypertension (females = 72.3%, males = 59.3%, P = 0.010), diabetes (females = 28.8%, males = 18.7%, P = 0.030), smoking (females = 6.3%, males = 35.3%, P < 0.001). No significant difference was seen in other risk factors between two genders. There was no significant difference in the mortality rate, which constituted 8.9% and 4.7% in females and males respectively (P = 0.140). The evidence from the present study suggests that despite the existence of some difference between risk-factors in two genders, there was no difference in terms of ischemic stroke severity and mortality rate between two genders.

Baseline and pre-operative 1-year mortality risk factors in a cohort of 509 hip fracture patients consecutively admitted to a co-managed orthogeriatric unit (FONDA Cohort).

PubMed

Menéndez-Colino, Rocío; Alarcon, Teresa; Gotor, Pilar; Queipo, Rocío; Ramírez-Martín, Raquel; Otero, Angel; González-Montalvo, Juan I

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to determine the patient characteristics that predict 1-year mortality after a hip fracture (HF). All patients admitted consecutively with fragility HF during 1 year in a co-managed orthogeriatric unit of a university hospital (FONDA cohort) were assesed. Baseline and admission demographic, clinical, functional, analytical and body-composition variables were collected in the first 72 h after admission. A protocol designed to minimize the consequences of the HF was applied. One year after the fracture patients or their carers were contacted by telephone to ascertain their vital status. A total of 509 patients with a mean age of 85.6 years were included. One-year mortality was 23.2%. The final multivariate model included 8 independent mortality risk factors: age >85 years, baseline functional impairment in basic activities of daily living, low body mass index, cognitive impairment, heart disease, low hand-grip strength, anaemia at admission, and secondary hyperparathyroidism associated with vitamin D deficiency. The association of several of these factors greatly increased mortality risk, with an OR (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 5.372 (3.227-8.806) in patients with 4 to 5 factors, and an OR (95% CI) of 11.097 (6.432-19.144) in those with 6 or more factors. In addition to previously known factors (such as age, impairment in basic activities of daily living, cognitive impairment, malnutrition and anaemia at admission), other factors, such as muscle strength and hyperparathyroidism associated with vitamin D deficiency, are associated with greater 1-year mortality after a HF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Frequency and clinical outcomes of ESKAPE bacteremia in solid organ transplantation and the risk factors for mortality.

PubMed

Ye, Q F; Zhao, J; Wan, Q Q; Qiao, B B; Zhou, J D

2014-10-01

Although bacteremias caused by the 6 ESKAPE pathogens (Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterobacter species) have recently been highlighted as a serious complication in solid organ transplant (SOT), more information is urgently needed. We sought to investigate the frequency and clinical outcomes of ESKAPE bacteremia in SOT and determine the risk factors for mortality. A retrospective analysis of bacteremia after SOT was reviewed. Risk factors for mortality caused by ESKAPE bacteremia were identified. Eighty-four episodes of bacteremia were caused by ESKAPE strains. Of these strains, 41 were caused by resistant ESKAPE (rESKAPE) organisms. The only factor for bacteremia-related mortality independently associated with ESKAPE was septic shock (odds ratio [OR] = 21.017, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.038-87.682, P < 0.001). The factors for bacteremia-related mortality independently associated with rESKAPE bacteremia were septic shock (OR = 16.558, 95% CI = 6.620-104.668, P = 0.003) and age ≥40 years (OR = 7.521, 95% CI = 1.196-47.292, P = 0.031). To improve the outcomes of transplantation, more effective therapeutic treatments are of paramount importance when older SOT recipients with bacteremia due to ESKAPE/rESKAPE organisms present with septic shock. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk factors for suicide in blacks and whites: an analysis of data from the 1993 National Mortality Followback Survey.

PubMed

Castle, Kathryn; Duberstein, Paul R; Meldrum, Sean; Conner, Kenneth R; Conwell, Yeates

2004-03-01

Data on risk factors for suicide in blacks in the United States are needed, given the dramatic increase in the black suicide rate from 1980 to 1997. The 1993 National Mortality Followback Survey represented an unprecedented opportunity to identify risk factors for suicide in blacks and to determine whether race differences (black versus white) in risk factors exist. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to compare cases of suicide (150 suicides in blacks and 1,279 suicides in whites) with cases of accidental deaths (737 cases in blacks and 3,458 cases in whites). Predictors of interest were 18 items tapping four domains: antisocial behavior, substance use/abuse, depressive symptoms, and psychotic symptoms. Four items distinguished suicides from accidental deaths in both black and whites: death ideation, suicidal ideation, bizarre behavior, and making violent threats. Items in two of the four domains discriminated risk for suicide in whites more strongly than in blacks: reports of community complaints and problem drinking. No variable conferred greater risk for suicide in blacks than in whites. The current study underscores the need for examination of race differences in risk factors for suicide. It is also essential to examine variables that were unavailable in the National Mortality Followback Survey data set, particularly racism, perceived discrimination, and feelings of alienation from the dominant culture.

Risk factors for mortality in liver transplant recipients with ESKAPE infection.

PubMed

Song, S H; Li, X X; Wan, Q Q; Ye, Q F

2014-12-01

Although infections caused by the pathogens Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterobacter spp (ESKAPE) have recently been identified as serious emerging problems in solid organ transplant, no information in liver transplant (LT) recipients is available. We sought to investigate the risk factors for associated mortality in LT recipients with ESKAPE infections. A retrospective analysis of infection after LT was reviewed. Risk factors for mortality caused by ESKAPE infection were identified. Fifty-three episodes of infections caused by ESKAPE were documented in 51 LT recipients. The main sites of infection were the bloodstream (49.0%), the lungs (33.3%), and the intra-abdominal/biliary tract (17.6%). The risk factors for mortality independently associated with ESKAPE infection were female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 6.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1-40.8, P = .042), septic shock (OR = 30.1, 95% CI = 3.7-244.8, P = .001), and lymphocyte counts <300/mm(3) (OR = 20.2, 95% CI = 2.9-142.2, P = .003). To improve the results of LT, more effective therapeutic treatments are of paramount importance when female LT recipients with ESKAPE infection present with septic shock and decreased lymphocyte counts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Placenta accreta is an independent risk factor for late pre-term birth and perinatal mortality.

PubMed

Vinograd, Adi; Wainstock, Tamar; Mazor, Moshe; Beer-Weisel, Ruthy; Klaitman, Vered; Dukler, Doron; Hamou, Batel; Novack, Lena; Ben-Shalom Tirosh, Neta; Vinograd, Ofir; Erez, Offer

2015-08-01

This study is aimed to identify the risk factors for the development of placenta accreta (PA) and characterize its effect on maternal and perinatal outcomes. This population-based retrospective cohort study included all deliveries at our medical center during the study period. Those with placenta accreta (n = 551) comprised the study group, while the rest of the deliveries (n = 239 089) served as a comparison group. The prevalence of placenta accerta is 0.2%. Women with this complication had higher rates of ≥2 previous CS (p < 0.001), recurrent abortions (p = 0.03), and previous placenta accreta [p < 0.001]. The rates of placenta previa and peripartum hemorrhage necessitating blood transfusion were higher in women with placenta accreta than in the comparison group. PTB before 34 and 37 weeks of gestation was more common among women with placenta accreta (p < 0.01), as was the rate of perinatal mortality (p < 0.001). Placenta accreta was an independent risk factor for perinatal mortality (adj. OR 8.2; 95% CI 6.4-10.4, p < 0.001) and late PTB (adj. OR 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.7, p = 0.002). Placenta accreta is an independent risk factor for late PTB and perinatal mortality.

Does the mortality risk of social isolation depend upon socioeconomic factors?

PubMed

Patterson, Andrew C

2016-10-01

This study considers whether socioeconomic status influences the impact of social isolation on mortality risk. Using data from the Alameda County Study, Cox proportional hazard models indicate that having a high income worsens the mortality risk of social isolation. Education may offset risk, however, and the specific pattern that emerges depends on which measures for socioeconomic status and social isolation are included. Additionally, lonely people who earn high incomes suffer especially high risk of accidents and suicides as well as cancer. Further research is needed that contextualizes the health risks of social isolation within the broader social environment. © The Author(s) 2015.

[Risk of death 4 years after a 1st cerebral infarction: prospective study in Barquisimeto, Estado Lara, Venezuela].

PubMed

Poni, E; Granero, R; Escobar, B

1995-12-01

Stroke, the 5th. cause of death in Venezuela, has been associated to cerebral infarction. However, there is little information concerning lethality factors. 33 atherothrombotic subtype stroke patients, 31 (96%) Latino and 2(4%) white, were admitted into a prospective study to analyze the role of 11 mortality risk factors for those patients. A mortality relative risk (RR) > 1.5 or < 1 (protective) was considered clinically important if 1 was excluded from the 95% confidence interval (95%CI). The Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square procedure was use to test statistical significance (p < 0.05). Mortality RR for patients age 65 and over (RR = 2.95) and 4 year mortality RR for male patients (RR = 2.04) were clinically and statistically significant. History of high blood pressure was protective (RR = 0.62) probably due to good medical control. Cumulative mortality was higher than that of comparable studies, even from the first week of follow-up, reaching 67% at the 4th year.

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors – Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

2016-01-01

Background: There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. Objectives: We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Methods: Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. Results: We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. Conclusions: There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223–229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151 PMID:27286002

Mortality after percutaneous coronary revascularization: Prior cardiovascular risk factor control and improved outcomes in patients with diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Noman, Awsan; Balasubramaniam, Karthik; Alhous, M Hafez A; Lee, Kelvin; Jesudason, Peter; Rashid, Muhammad; Mamas, Mamas A; Zaman, Azfar G

2017-06-01

To assess the mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) according to their insulin requirement and PCI setting (elective, urgent, and emergency). DM is a major risk factor to develop coronary artery disease (CAD). It is unclear if meticulous glycemic control and aggressive risk factor management in patients with DM has improved outcomes following PCI. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on 9,224 patients treated with PCI at a regional tertiary center between 2008 and 2011. About 7,652 patients were nondiabetics (non-DM), 1,116 had non-insulin treated diabetes mellitus (NITDM) and 456 had ITDM. Multi-vessel coronary artery disease, renal impairment and non-coronary vascular disease were more prevalent in DM patients. Overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.4%. In a logistic regression model, the adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for 30-day mortality were 1.28 (0.81-2.03, P = 0.34) in NITDM and 2.82 (1.61-4.94, P < 0.001) in ITDM compared with non-DM. During a median follow-up period of 641 days, longer-term post-30 day mortality rate was 5.3%. In the Cox's proportional hazard model, the hazard ratios (95% CI) for longer-term mortality were 1.15 (0.88-1.49, P = 0.31) in NITDM and 1.88 (1.38-2.55, P < 0.001) in ITDM compared with non-DM group. Similar result was observed in all three different PCI settings. In the modern era of aggressive cardiovascular risk factor control in diabetes, this study reveals higher mortality only in insulin-treated diabetic patients following PCI for stable coronary artery disease and acute coronary syndrome. Importantly, diabetic patients with good risk factor control and managed on diet or oral hypoglycemics have similar outcomes to the non-diabetic population. © 2016 The Authors Catheterization and Cardiovascular Interventions Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors Catheterization and Cardiovascular Interventions Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Associations of ikigai as a positive psychological factor with all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality among middle-aged and elderly Japanese people: findings from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study.

PubMed

Tanno, Kozo; Sakata, Kiyomi; Ohsawa, Masaki; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Yaegashi, Yumi; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2009-07-01

To determine whether presence of ikigai as a positive psychological factor is associated with decreased risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality among middle-aged and elderly Japanese men and women. From 1988 to 1990, a total of 30,155 men and 43,117 women aged 40 to 79 years completed a lifestyle questionnaire including a question about ikigai. Mortality follow-up was available for a mean of 12.5 years and was classified as having occurred in the first 5 years or the subsequent follow-up period. Associations between ikigai and all-cause and cause-specific mortality were assessed using a Cox's regression model. Multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for age, body mass index, drinking and smoking status, physical activity, sleep duration, education, occupation, marital status, perceived mental stress, and medical history. During the follow-up period, 10,021 deaths were recorded. Men and women with ikigai had decreased risks of mortality from all causes in the long-term follow-up period; multivariate HRs (95% confidence intervals, CIs) were 0.85 (0.80-0.90) for men and 0.93 (0.86-1.00) for women. The risk of cardiovascular mortality was reduced in men with ikigai; the multivariate HR (95% CI) was 0.86 (0.76-0.97). Furthermore, men and women with ikigai had a decreased risk for mortality from external causes; multivariate HRs (95% CIs) were 0.74 (0.59-0.93) for men and 0.67 (0.51-0.88) for women. The findings suggest that a positive psychological factor such as ikigai is associated with longevity among Japanese people.

Proposal for a bariatric mortality risk classification system for patients undergoing bariatric surgery.

PubMed

Nguyen, Ninh T; Nguyen, Brian; Smith, Brian; Reavis, Kevin M; Elliott, Christian; Hohmann, Samuel

2013-01-01

An obesity surgery mortality risk score derived from a single clinical series can be used to stratify the mortality risk of patients undergoing gastric bypass. However, such a scoring system does not take into account 2 important factors in contemporary bariatric surgery--increased use of the laparoscopic approach and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding. The present study analyzed the preoperative factors that might predict in-hospital mortality after bariatric surgery using data from academic medical centers and proposes a classification system for predicting mortality. Using the "International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision," diagnosis and procedural codes, the data for all patients who underwent bariatric surgery for the treatment of morbid obesity from 2002 to 2009 were obtained from the University HealthSystem Consortium database. The limitations of this database included the lack of the body mass index and the underestimation of some co-morbidities, such as sleep apnea. Multiple regression analyses were performed to determine the factors predictive of greater in-hospital mortality. The factors examined included race, gender, age, co-morbidities, surgical technique (laparoscopic versus open), bariatric operation (gastric bypass versus nongastric bypass), and payer type. A scoring system was devised by assigning 1 point for each major factor (those with an adjusted odds ratio [AOR] of ≥2.0) and .5 point for each minor factor (those with an AOR <2.0). Using contemporary data from 2007 to 2009, the in-hospital mortality was analyzed according to the classification: class I, 0-0.5 point; class II, 1.0-1.5 points; class III, 2.0-3.0 points; and class IV, ≥3.5 points. During the 8-year period, 105,287 patients underwent bariatric surgery. The operations included laparoscopic gastric bypass (45%), open gastric bypass (41%), and laparoscopic gastric banding or gastroplasty (14%). The overall in-hospital mortality rate was .17%. The number of deaths per 1000 bariatric operations decreased from 4.0 in 2002 to .6 in 2009. Using regression analyses, the factors predictive of greater in-hospital mortality were male gender (AOR 3.2), gastric bypass procedure (AOR 5.8), open surgical technique (AOR 4.8), Medicare payer (AOR 3.0), diabetes (AOR 1.6), and age >60 years (AOR 1.9). The mortality rate was .10% for class I patients, .15% for class II, .33% for class III, and .70% for class IV (P < .05 among all classes). Within the context of academic centers, the mortality after bariatric surgery has decreased substantially since 2002, with an increase in the use of the laparoscopic technique and laparoscopic gastric banding. A bariatric mortality risk classification system was developed to stratify mortality, given the limits of this database, which does not include the body mass index and underestimates the incidence of sleep apnea. It might be useful to aid surgeons in surgical decision-making, to inform patients of their risks, and for quality improvement reporting purposes. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Differences in the association of cardiovascular risk factors with education: a comparison of Costa Rica (CRELES) and the USA (NHANES).

PubMed

Rehkopf, David H; Dow, William H; Rosero-Bixby, Luis

2010-09-01

Despite different levels of economic development, Costa Rica and the USA have similar mortalities among adults. However, in the USA there are substantial differences in mortality by educational attainment, and in Costa Rica there are only minor differences. This contrast motivates an examination of behavioural and biological correlates underlying this difference. The authors used data on adults aged 60 and above from the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Ageing Study (CRELES) (n=2827) and from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n=5607) to analyse the cross-sectional association between educational level and the following risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD): ever smoked, current smoker, sedentary, high saturated fat, high carbohydrates, high calorie diet, obesity, severe obesity, large waist circumference, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, fasting glucose, C-reactive protein, systolic blood pressure and BMI. There were significantly fewer hazardous levels of risk biomarkers at higher levels of education for more than half (10 out of 17) of the risk factors in the USA, but for less than a third of the outcomes in Costa Rica (five out of 17). These results are consistent with the context-specific nature of educational differences in risk factors for CVD and with a non-uniform nature of association of CVD risk factors with education within countries. Our results also demonstrate that social equity in mortality is achieved without uniform equity in all risk factors.

Long-term mortality from cardiac causes after adjuvant hypofractionated vs. conventional radiotherapy for localized left-sided breast cancer.

PubMed

Chan, Elisa K; Woods, Ryan; Virani, Sean; Speers, Caroline; Wai, Elaine S; Nichol, Alan; McBride, Mary L; Tyldesley, Scott

2015-01-01

Ongoing concern remains regarding cardiac injury with hypofractionated whole breast/chest-wall radiotherapy (HF-WBI) compared to conventional radiotherapy (CF-WBI) in left-sided breast cancer patients. The purpose was to determine if cardiac mortality increases with HF-WBI relative to CF-WBI. Between 1990 and 1998, 5334 women with early-stage breast cancer received post-operative radiotherapy to the breast/chest wall alone. A population-based database recorded baseline patient, tumor and treatment factors. Baseline cardiovascular risk factors were identified from hospital administrative records. A propensity-score model balanced risk factors between radiotherapy groups. Cause of death was coded as breast cancer, cardiac or other cause. Cumulative mortality from each cause after radiotherapy was estimated using a competing risk approach. For left-sided cases, median follow-up was 14.2 years. 485 women received CF-WBI, 2221 women received HF-WBI. There was no difference in 15-year mortality from cardiac causes: 4.8% with HF-WBI and 4.2% with CF-WBI (p=0.74), even after propensity-score adjustment (p=0.45). There was no difference in breast cancer mortality or other cause mortality. For right-sided cases, there was no difference in mortality for the three causes of death. At 15-years follow-up, cardiac mortality is not statistically different among left-sided breast cancer patients treated with HF-WBI or CF-WBI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple risk factor control, mortality and cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Gulliford, Martin C

2018-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of multiple risk factor control (MRFC) at reducing mortality and cardiovascular events in diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in clinical practice. Design Population-based cohort study. Setting Primary care database in the UK, linked with inpatient and mortality data. Participants Participants aged 40–79 years with type 2 diabetes and valid serum creatinine measurements, including 11 431 participants with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate: eGFR 15–59 mL/min/1.73 m2) and 36 429 participants with non-CKD (eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Exposures MRFC consisted of four components: Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) <53 mmol/mol (<7.0%), blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg, total cholesterol <5 mmol/L and no smoking. The main exposure variable was the number of risk factors controlled at baseline. Outcome measures All-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the overall participants. Cardiovascular events, including coronary heart disease and stroke, in participants limited to those without a history of cardiovascular diseases at baseline. Results In participants with CKD, 37% or 13% met three or four MRFC criteria, respectively. Increasing numbers of risk factors controlled were associated with lower relative hazards for all outcomes studied compared with those meeting no or one criterion. For participants with CKD meeting four criteria, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0.60 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.69) and the adjusted subdistribution HR for cardiovascular mortality was 0.60 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.70), considering a competing risk of non-cardiovascular death. Participants meeting four criteria also had lower relative hazards for coronary heart disease (adjusted subdistribution HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.91) and stroke (0.63, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.89), considering death as a competing risk. Conclusions MRFC may lower the increased risks for mortality and cardiovascular events in people with diabetes and CKD. Further research is needed to evaluate appropriateness of MRFC according to individual participants’ health status for improved management of cardiovascular risks in this population. PMID:29739781

Cardiovascular disease biomarkers on cognitive function in older adults: Joint effects of cardiovascular disease biomarkers and cognitive function on mortality risk.

PubMed

Loprinzi, Paul D; Crush, Elizabeth; Joyner, Chelsea

2017-01-01

Previous research demonstrates an inverse association between age and cardiovascular disease (CVD) biomarkers with cognitive function; however, little is known about the combined associations of CVD risk factors and cognitive function with all-cause mortality in an older adult population, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 1999-2002 NHANES were used (N=2,097; 60+yrs), with mortality follow-up through 2011. Evaluated individual biomarkers included mean arterial pressure (MAP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), HDL-C, total cholesterol (TC), A1C, and measured body mass index (BMI). Cognitive function was assessed using the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST). Further, 4 groups were created based on CVD risk and cognitive function. Group 1: high cognitive function and low CVD risk; Group 2: high cognitive function and high CVD risk; Group 3: low cognitive function and low CVD risk; Group 4: low cognitive function and high CVD risk. An inverse relationship was observed where those with more CVD risk factors had a lower (worse) cognitive function score. Compared to those in Group 1, only those in Group 3 and 4 had an increase mortality risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Physical Activity, Health Benefits, and Mortality Risk

PubMed Central

Kokkinos, Peter

2012-01-01

A plethora of epidemiologic evidence from large studies supports unequivocally an inverse, independent, and graded association between volume of physical activity, health, and cardiovascular and overall mortality. This association is evident in apparently healthy individuals, patients with hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease, regardless of body weight. Moreover, the degree of risk associated with physical inactivity is similar to, and in some cases even stronger than, the more traditional cardiovascular risk factors. The exercise-induced health benefits are in part related to favorable modulations of cardiovascular risk factors observed by increased physical activity or structured exercise programs. Although the independent contribution of the exercise components, intensity, duration, and frequency to the reduction of mortality risk is not clear, it is well accepted that an exercise volume threshold defined at caloric expenditure of approximately 1,000 Kcal per week appears to be necessary for significant reduction in mortality risk. Further reductions in risk are observed with higher volumes of energy expenditure. Physical exertion is also associated with a relatively low and transient increase in risk for cardiac events. This risk is significantly higher for older and sedentary individuals. Therefore, such individuals should consult their physician prior to engaging in exercise. “Walking is man’s best medicine”Hippocrates PMID:23198160

Intraoperative transfusion of 1 U to 2 U packed red blood cells is associated with increased 30-day mortality, surgical-site infection, pneumonia, and sepsis in general surgery patients.

PubMed

Bernard, Andrew C; Davenport, Daniel L; Chang, Phillip K; Vaughan, Taylor B; Zwischenberger, Joseph B

2009-05-01

Transfusion of packed red blood cells (PRBCs) increases morbidity and mortality in select surgical specialty patients. The impact of low-volume, leukoreduced RBC transfusion on general surgery patients is less well understood. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program participant use file was queried for general surgery patients recorded in 2005 to 2006 (n = 125,223). Thirty-day morbidity (21 uniformly defined complications) and mortality, demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative risk variables were obtained. Infectious complications and composite morbidity and mortality were stratified across intraoperative PRBCs units received. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess influence of transfusion on outcomes, while adjusting for transfusion propensity, procedure type, wound class, operative duration, and 30+ patient risk factors. After adjustment for transfusion propensity, procedure group, wound class, operative duration, and all other important risk variables, 1 U PRBCs significantly (p < 0.05) increased risk of 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] = 1.32), composite morbidity (OR = 1.23), pneumonia (OR = 1.24), and sepsis/shock (OR = 1.29). Transfusion of 2 U additionally increased risk for these outcomes (OR = 1.38, 1.40, 1.25, 1.53, respectively; p

[Chronic renal disease as cardiovascular risk factor].

PubMed

Hermans, M M H; Kooman, J P; Stehouwer, C D A

2008-07-19

A lowering of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and/or the presence of albuminuria are signs of chronic renal disease. Both variables are for the most part independently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Albuminuria is a marker of endothelial dysfunction. A decrease of the GFR is associated with non-traditional risk factors, e.g. renal anaemia, uraemic toxins due to a decrease of the renal clearance, hyperhomocysteinaemia caused by a diminished homocysteine metabolism, excessive activation of the sympathetic nervous system which is related to sleep apnoea syndrome, oxidative stress and dyslipidaemia associated with the formation of vasotoxic, oxidised LDL cholesterol. These non-traditional risk factors may, alone or in combination with traditional atherogenic risk factors (e.g. age, male gender, smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, obesity, positive family history and diabetes mellitus), partially via endothelial dysfunction, result in harmful effects on arterial function, increasing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Different stages of chronic kidney disease are associated with specific risk factors, making a specific therapeutic approach essential.

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data

PubMed Central

Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O.

2018-01-01

Background Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. Methods We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010–2015 was analyzed. Results The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. Conclusions The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality. PMID:29558486

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data.

PubMed

Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O

2018-01-01

Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010-2015 was analyzed. The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality.

[Relationship between hyperuricemia and prognosis in patients with heart failure of coronary heart disease after revascularization].

PubMed

Peng, D; Wang, S P; Zhao, D H; Fan, Q C; Shu, J; Liu, J H

2018-05-08

Objective: To explore the effect of hyperuricemia on prognosis in patients with heart failure of coronary heart disease (CHD) after revascularization. Methods: A single-center retrospective study of all subjects who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) as revascularization for CHD at Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, between January 2005 and December 2014 was performed.Patients were divided into two groups by with or without hyperuricemia.The average follow-up was 1 818 d. Results: The Logistic regression analysis revealed that hyperuricemia was independent risk factors of readmission of heart failure( P =0.018, OR =1.499, 95% CI 1.071-2.098). The Cox regression analysis revealed that hyperuricemia was independent risk factor of all-cause mortality( P =0.002, RR =1.520, 95% CI 1.166-1.982), cardiovascular ( CV ) mortality( P =0.001, RR =1.811, 95% CI 1.279-2.566), heart failure mortality( P =0.006, RR =2.151, 95% CI 1.247-3.711). Conclusions: There is negative correlation between level of uric acid and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). The patients with heart failure of coronary heart disease complicated with hyperuricemia have high risk of readmission of heart failure, all-cause mortality, CV mortality andheart failure mortality than patients with normal uric acid level. Hyperuricemia is an independent risk factor for patients with heart failure of coronary heart disease after revascularization.

The geriatric polytrauma: Risk profile and prognostic factors.

PubMed

Rupprecht, Holger; Heppner, Hans Jürgen; Wohlfart, Kristina; Türkoglu, Alp

2017-03-01

In the German population, the percentage of elderly patients is increasing, and consequently there are more elderly patients among trauma cases, and particularly cases of polytrauma. The aim of this study was to present clinical results and a risk profile for geriatric polytrauma patients. Review of 140 geriatric (over 65 years of age) polytrauma patients who received prehospital treatment was performed. Severity of trauma was retrospectively assessed with Hannover Polytrauma Score (HPTS). Age, hemoglobin (Hb) level, systolic blood pressure (BP), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, timing of and necessity for intubation were analyzed in relation to mortality and in comparison with younger patients. Geriatric polytrauma patients (n=140) had overall mortality rate of 65%, whereas younger patients (n=1468) had mortality rate of 15.9%. Despite equivalent severity of injury (HPTS less age points) in geriatric and non-geriatric groups, mortality rate was 4 times higher in geriatric group. Major blood loss with Hb <8 g/dL was revealed to be 3 times more fatal than moderate or minor blood loss (Hb ≥8 g/dL). GCS score <12 corresponded to double mortality rate (39% vs 83%). Age by itself is significant risk factor and predictor of increased mortality in polytrauma patients. Additional risk factors include very low GCS score and systolic BP <80 mm Hg, for instance, as potential clinical indicators of massive bleeding and traumatic brain injury. Such parameters demand early and rapid treatment at prehospital stage and on admission.

Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality of Perforated Peptic Ulcer: Retrospective Cohort Study of Risk Factors among Black Africans in Côte d'Ivoire.

PubMed

Gona, Soro Kountele; Alassan, Mahassadi Kouamé; Marcellin, Koffi Gnangoran; Henriette, Kissi Ya; Adama, Coulibaly; Toussaint, Assohoun; Manuela, Ehua Adjoba; Sylvain, Seu Gagon; Anthony, Afum-Adjei Awuah; Francis, Ehua Somian

2016-01-01

Introduction. Surgical treatment of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is a challenge for surgeons in Africa. Aim. To determine risk factors of postoperative complications or mortality among black Ivoirian patients with PPU. Methods. All 161 patients (median age = 34 years, 90.7 male) operated on for PPU in the visceral and general surgery unit were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study. Variables were studied with Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazard models. Results. Among 161 patients operated on for PPU, 36 (27.5%) experienced complications and 31 (19.3%) died. Follow-up results were the incidence of complications and mortality of 6.4 (95% CI: 4.9-8.0) per 100 person-days and 3.0 (95% CI: 1.9-4.0) per 100 person-days for incidence of mortality. In multivariate analysis, risk factors of postoperative complications or mortality were comorbidities (HR = 2.1, P = 0.03), tachycardia (pulse rate > 100/minutes) (HR = 2.4, P = 0.02), purulent intra-abdominal fluid collection (HR = 2.1, P = 0.04), hyponatremia (median value ≤ 134 mEq/L) (HR = 2.3, P = 0.01), delayed time of hospital admission > 72 hours (HR = 2.6, P < 0.0001), and delayed time of surgical intervention between 24 and 48 hours (HR = 3.8, P < 0.0001). Conclusion. The delayed hospital admission or surgical intervention and hyponatremia may be considered as additional risk of postoperative complications or mortality in Black African patients with PPU.

Environmental factors associated with crash-related mortality and injury among taxi drivers in New South Wales, Australia.

PubMed

Lam, Lawrence T

2004-09-01

This exploratory study aims to investigate the associations between some environmental factors and the increased risk of motor vehicle crash-related injuries among taxi drivers. Information utilised in the study are obtained from police reports of all road traffic accidents that occurred on the roads between 1996 and 2000 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Of the 7923 taxi drivers who involved in crashes, nearly 10% (n = 750) were killed or injured. Results indicate sex, and two environmental factors are significantly associated with an increased risk of crash-related mortality and injury among taxi drivers. The adjusted relative risk of crash-related mortality and injury is increased by 60% for those who work the night shift (OR = 1.59, 95%CI = 1.35-1.88), and by 20% for those who do not carry any passenger on board (OR = 1.20, 95%CI = 1.02-1.41) should these drivers involve in a crash. The increased relative risk of crash-related mortality and injury is nearly 2.5 times for female taxi drivers (OR = 2.30, 95%CI = 1.45-3.65) when compared with their male counterparts. Copyright 2003 Elsevier Ltd.

Global cardiovascular mortality risk in the adult Polish population: prospective assessment of the cohorts studied in multicentre national WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior studies.

PubMed

Piotrowski, Walerian; Waśkiewicz, Anna; Cicha-Mikołajczyk, Alicja

2016-01-01

To develop a global cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk model for the Polish population and to verify these data in the context of the SCORE risk algorithm. We analysed data obtained in two multicentre national population studies, the WOBASZ study which was conducted in 2003-2005 and included 14,769 subjects aged 20-74 years, and the WOBASZ Senior study which was conducted in 2007 and included 1096 subjects above 74 years of age. All these subjects were followed for survival status until 2012 and the cause of death was determined. The mean duration of follow-up was 8.2 years for WOBASZ study participants and about 5 years for WOBASZ Senior study participants. Overall, 1436 subjects died, including 568 due to CVD. For the purpose of our analysis of overall and CVD mortality, 15 established risk factors were selected. Survival was analysed separately in WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants. Statistical methods included descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional hazard models, and the SCORE risk algorithm. Measure of incompatibility of the SCORE risk model to the Polish population was determined as the difference between mortality rates by the SCORE risk quartiles and the Cox approach. During the 8-year follow-up of the WOBASZ study population, mortality due to CVD was 38% among men and 31% among women. The most common causes of CVD mortality were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 33%) followed by cerebro-vascular disease (17%) in men, and cerebrovascular disease (31%) followed by IHD (23%) in women. We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for both overall mortality and CVD mortality (p < 0.0001). For overall mortality among men and women, nearly all selected risk factors were shown to be significant in univariate analyses, except for high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level and the total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio in men, and smoking status in women. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors in men included age, glucose level, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status. In women, independent predictors were age, smoking status, and diabetes. During the 5-year follow-up of the WOBASZ Senior study population, mortality due to CVD was 48% among men and 58% among women. The most common cause of CVD mortality in both men and women was IHD (29% and 24%, respectively), followed by cerebrovascular disease (16% and 21%, respectively). We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for overall mortality (p < 0.0001) but not for CVD mortality (p = 0.0755). Due to the fact that survival curves for CVD mortality did not differ between men and women, we estimated the cut-off age for no survival difference in the WOBASZ study. By selecting the oldest patients and adding them to the WOBASZ Senior cohort, we obtained the cut-off age of 70 years above which the survival curves were not significantly different between men and women. In univariate analyses, independent predictors in men were age and creatinine level. These factors remained significant in multivariate analysis. In women above 74 years of age, independent predictors in univariate analyses included age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio, and smoking status. Age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, and smoking status remained independent predictors of overall mortality in multivariate analysis. For CVD mortality, significant predictors were the same as for overall mortality. In women, significant predictors in uni- and multivariate analyses were age and smoking status. Overall disagreement between CVD mortality rates by the SCORE risk model and the Cox model was 5.7% in men and 2% in women. 1. Long-term follow-up of WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants allowed assessment of the inde-pendent association of the evaluated cardiovascular risk factors with CVD mortality in the Polish population. 2. Validation of the SCORE risk algorithm to estimate individual global CVD risk in the Polish population showed a high predictive value of this algorithm.

Cervical cancer, a disease of poverty: mortality differences between urban and rural areas in Mexico.

PubMed

Palacio-Mejía, Lina Sofía; Rangel-Gómez, Gudelia; Hernández-Avila, Mauricio; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo

2003-01-01

To examine cervical cancer mortality rates in Mexican urban and rural communities, and their association with poverty-related factors, during 1990-2000. We analyzed data from national databases to obtain mortality trends and regional variations using a Poisson regression model based on location (urban-rural). During 1990-2000 a total of 48,761 cervical cancer (CC) deaths were reported in Mexico (1990 = 4,280 deaths/year; 2000 = 4,620 deaths/year). On average, 12 women died every 24 hours, with 0.76% yearly annual growth in CC deaths. Women living in rural areas had 3.07 higher CC mortality risks compared to women with urban residence. Comparison of state CC mortality rates (reference = Mexico City) found higher risk in states with lower socio-economic development (Chiapas, relative risk [RR] = 10.99; Nayarit, RR = 10.5). Predominantly rural states had higher CC mortality rates compared to Mexico City (lowest rural population). CC mortality is associated with poverty-related factors, including lack of formal education, unemployment, low socio-economic level, rural residence and insufficient access to healthcare. This indicates the need for eradication of regional differences in cancer detection. This paper is available too at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html.

The relationship between prior suicidal behavior and mortality among individuals in community corrections.

PubMed

Clark, C Brendan; Waesche, Matthew C; Hendricks, Peter S; McCullumsmith, Cheryl B; Redmond, Nicole; Katiyar, Nandan; Lawler, Robert Marsh; Cropsey, Karen L

2013-01-01

Individuals under community corrections have multiple risk factors for mortality including exposure to a criminal environment, drug use, social stress, and a lack of medical care that predispose them to accidents, homicides, medical morbidities, and suicide. The literature suggests that prior suicidal behavior may be a particularly potent risk factor for mortality among individuals in the criminal justice system. This study looked to extend the link between history of a suicide attempt and future mortality in a community corrections population. Using an archival dataset (N = 18,260) collected from 2002 to 2007 of individuals being monitored under community corrections supervision for an average of 217 days (SD = 268), we examined the association between past history of a suicide attempt and mortality. A Cox Proportional Hazard Model controlling for age, race, gender, and substance dependence indicated that past history of a suicide attempt was independently associated with time to mortality, and demonstrated the second greatest effect after gender. These data suggest the need for a greater focus on screening and preventive services, particularly for individuals with a history of suicidal behavior, so as to reduce the risk of mortality in community corrections populations.

Independent predictors of morbidity and mortality in blunt colon trauma.

PubMed

Ricciardi, R; Paterson, C A; Islam, S; Sweeney, W B; Baker, S P; Counihan, T C

2004-01-01

We sought to determine the impact of (1) grade of the colon injury, (2) the formation of an ostomy, and (3) associated injuries on outcomes such as morbidity and mortality after blunt colon injuries. We retrospectively reviewed 16,814 cases of blunt abdominal trauma. Patients with colonic injuries were selected and charts reviewed for demographic, clinical, and outcomes data. Injuries were grouped by the Colon Injury Scale (grades I-V). Independent risk factors of morbidity included spine and lung injuries, as well as increased age. A higher grade of colon injury trended toward a significant association with intra-abdominal complications. Independent risk factors of mortality included liver, heart, and lung injuries, as well as intracerebral blood and female gender. The grade of colon injury, the formation of an ostomy, and management of the colon trauma did not independently predict increased intra-abdominal complications, morbidity, or mortality. These results indicate that patients afflicted with blunt colon trauma experience a high rate of morbidity and mortality from associated injuries and or increased age. Treatment regimens directed at these factors will be most helpful in reducing the high morbidity and mortality after blunt colon trauma. Factors such as ostomy formation and management strategy are not associated with increased morbidity or mortality after blunt colon trauma.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model: Part 1—Statistical Methodology

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Sean M.; Jacobs, Jeffrey P.; Pasquali, Sara K.; Gaynor, J. William; Karamlou, Tara; Welke, Karl F.; Filardo, Giovanni; Han, Jane M.; Kim, Sunghee; Shahian, David M.; Jacobs, Marshall L.

2016-01-01

Background This study’s objective was to develop a risk model incorporating procedure type and patient factors to be used for case-mix adjustment in the analysis of hospital-specific operative mortality rates after congenital cardiac operations. Methods Included were patients of all ages undergoing cardiac operations, with or without cardiopulmonary bypass, at centers participating in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database during January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013. Excluded were isolated patent ductus arteriosus closures in patients weighing less than or equal to 2.5 kg, centers with more than 10% missing data, and patients with missing data for key variables. Data from the first 3.5 years were used for model development, and data from the last 0.5 year were used for assessing model discrimination and calibration. Potential risk factors were proposed based on expert consensus and selected after empirically comparing a variety of modeling options. Results The study cohort included 52,224 patients from 86 centers with 1,931 deaths (3.7%). Covariates included in the model were primary procedure, age, weight, and 11 additional patient factors reflecting acuity status and comorbidities. The C statistic in the validation sample was 0.858. Plots of observed-vs-expected mortality rates revealed good calibration overall and within subgroups, except for a slight overestimation of risk in the highest decile of predicted risk. Removing patient preoperative factors from the model reduced the C statistic to 0.831 and affected the performance classification for 12 of 86 hospitals. Conclusions The risk model is well suited to adjust for case mix in the analysis and reporting of hospital-specific mortality for congenital heart operations. Inclusion of patient factors added useful discriminatory power and reduced bias in the calculation of hospital-specific mortality metrics. PMID:26245502

Social networks and mortality based on the Komo-Ise cohort study in Japan.

PubMed

Iwasaki, Motoki; Otani, Tetsuya; Sunaga, Rumiko; Miyazaki, Hiroko; Xiao, Liu; Wang, Naren; Yosiaki, Sasazawa; Suzuki, Shosuke

2002-12-01

No prospective studies have examined the association between social networks and all-cause and cause-specific mortality among middle-aged Japanese. The study of varied populations may contribute to clarifying the robustness of the observed effects of social networks and extend their generalizability. To clarify the association between social networks and mortality among middle-aged and elderly Japanese, a community-based prospective study, the Komo-Ise Study, was conducted in two areas of Gunma Prefecture, Japan. A total of 11 565 subjects aged 40-69 years at baseline in 1993 completed a self-administered questionnaire. During the 7-year follow-up period, 335 men and 155 women died and the relative risk (RR) of each social network item was estimated by the Cox proportional hazard model. Single women had significantly increased risks of all-cause (multivariate RR = 2.2), and all circulatory system disease (age-area adjusted RR = 2.6) mortality. Men who did not participate in hobbies, club activities, or community groups had significantly higher multivariate RR for all-cause (RR = 1.5), all circulatory system disease (RR = 1.6) and non-cancer and non-circulatory system disease (RR = 2.3) mortality. Urban women who rarely or never met close relatives had significantly elevated risks of all-cause (RR = 2.4), all cancer (RR = 2.6), and non-cancer and non-circulatory system disease (RR = 2.7) mortality after adjustment for established risk factors. This study provides evidence that social networks are an important predictor of mortality risk for middle-aged and elderly Japanese men and women. Lack of participation, for men, and being single and lack of meeting close relatives, for women, were independent risk factors for mortality.

Resting heart rate is a risk factor for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but not for exacerbations or pneumonia.

PubMed

Warnier, Miriam J; Rutten, Frans H; de Boer, Anthonius; Hoes, Arno W; De Bruin, Marie L

2014-01-01

Although it is known that patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) generally do have an increased heart rate, the effects on both mortality and non-fatal pulmonary complications are unclear. We assessed whether heart rate is associated with all-cause mortality, and non-fatal pulmonary endpoints. A prospective cohort study of 405 elderly patients with COPD was performed. All patients underwent extensive investigations, including electrocardiography. Follow-up data on mortality were obtained by linking the cohort to the Dutch National Cause of Death Register and information on complications (exacerbation of COPD or pneumonia) by scrutinizing patient files of general practitioners. Multivariable cox regression analysis was performed. During the follow-up 132 (33%) patients died. The overall mortality rate was 50/1000 py (42-59). The major causes of death were cardiovascular and respiratory. The relative risk of all-cause mortality increased with 21% for every 10 beats/minute increase in heart rate (adjusted HR: 1.21 [1.07-1.36], p = 0.002). The incidence of major non-fatal pulmonary events was 145/1000 py (120-168). The risk of a non-fatal pulmonary complication increased non-significantly with 7% for every 10 beats/minute increase in resting heart rate (adjusted HR: 1.07 [0.96-1.18], p = 0.208). Increased resting heart rate is a strong and independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in elderly patients with COPD. An increased resting heart rate did not result in an increased risk of exacerbations or pneumonia. This may indicate that the increased mortality risk of COPD is related to non-pulmonary causes. Future randomized controlled trials are needed to investigate whether heart-rate lowering agents are worthwhile for COPD patients.

Clinical, socioeconomic, and behavioural factors at age 50 years and risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and mortality: A cohort study.

PubMed

Singh-Manoux, Archana; Fayosse, Aurore; Sabia, Séverine; Tabak, Adam; Shipley, Martin; Dugravot, Aline; Kivimäki, Mika

2018-05-01

Multimorbidity is increasingly common and is associated with adverse health outcomes, highlighting the need to broaden the single-disease framework that dominates medical research. We examined the role of midlife clinical characteristics, socioeconomic position, and behavioural factors in the development of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (at least 2 of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke), along with how these factors modify risk of mortality. Data on 8,270 men and women were drawn from the Whitehall II cohort study, with mean follow-up of 23.7 years (1985 to 2017). Three sets of risk factors were assessed at age 50 years, each on a 5-point scale: clinical profile (hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, overweight/obesity, family history of cardiometabolic disease), occupational position, and behavioural factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity). The outcomes examined were cardiometabolic disease (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke), cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and mortality. We used multi-state models to examine the role of risk factors in 5 components of the cardiometabolic disease trajectory: from healthy state to first cardiometabolic disease, from first cardiometabolic disease to cardiometabolic multimorbidity, from healthy state to death, from first cardiometabolic disease to death, and from cardiometabolic multimorbidity to death. A total of 2,501 participants developed 1 of the 3 cardiometabolic diseases, 511 developed cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and 1,406 died. When behavioural and clinical risk factors were considered individually, only smoking was associated with all five transitions. In a model containing all 3 risk factor scales, midlife clinical profile was the strongest predictor of first cardiometabolic disease (hazard ratio for the least versus most favourable profile: 3.74; 95% CI: 3.14-4.45) among disease-free participants. Among participants with 1 cardiometabolic disease, adverse midlife socioeconomic (1.54; 95% CI: 1.10-2.15) and behavioural factors (2.00; 95% CI: 1.40-2.85), but not clinical characteristics, were associated with progression to cardiometabolic multimorbidity. Only midlife behavioural factors predicted mortality among participants with cardiometabolic disease (2.12; 95% CI: 1.41-3.18) or cardiometabolic multimorbidity (3.47; 95% CI: 1.81-6.66). A limitation is that the study was not large enough to estimate transitions between each disease and subsequent outcomes and between all possible pairs of diseases. The importance of specific midlife factors in disease progression, from disease-free state to single disease, multimorbidity, and death, varies depending on the disease stage. While clinical risk factors at age 50 determine the risk of incident cardiometabolic disease in a disease-free population, midlife socioeconomic and behavioural factors are stronger predictors of progression to multimorbidity and mortality in people with cardiometabolic disease.

Population-Level Seasonality in Cardiovascular Mortality, Blood Pressure, BMI and Inflammatory Cells in UK Biobank.

PubMed

Wyse, Cathy A; Celis Morales, Carlos A; Ward, Joey; Lyall, Donald; Smith, Daniel J; Mackay, Daniel; Curtis, Annie M; Bailey, Mark E S; Biello, Stephany; Gill, Jason M R; Pell, J P

2018-05-03

Introduction The risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) is higher in wintertime throughout the world, but it is not known if this reflects annual changes in diet or lifestyle, or an endogenous photoperiodic mechanism that is sensitive to changes in daylength. Methods Phenotypic data on cardiometabolic and lifestyle factors were collected throughout a 4 year time period from 502,642 middle-aged participants in UK Biobank. To assess the impact of seasonal environmental changes on cardiovascular risk factors, we linked these data to the outdoor temperature and day length at the time of assessment. Self-reported information on physical activity, diet and disease status were used to adjust for confounding factors related to health and lifestyle. Results Mortality related to CVD was higher in winter, as were risk factors for this condition including blood pressure, markers of inflammation and BMI. These seasonal rhythms were significantly related to day length after adjustment for other factors that might affect seasonality including physical activity, diet and outdoor temperature. Conclusions The risk of CVD may be modulated by day length at temperate latitudes, and the implications of seasonality should be considered in all studies of human cardiometabolic health.

Serum creatinine and bilirubin predict renal failure and mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Terg, Rubén; Gadano, Adrian; Cartier, Mariano; Casciato, Paola; Lucero, Romina; Muñoz, Alberto; Romero, Gustavo; Levi, Diana; Terg, Gonzalo; Miguez, Carlos; Abecasis, Raquel

2009-03-01

Patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) are at a high risk for renal failure and death despite successful treatment of infection. Intravenous (IV) albumin administration combined with antibiotic treatment has been shown to significantly decrease these risks. Clinical evidence is lacking on which patients are appropriate candidates for albumin treatment. To retrospectively analyse the usefulness of serum creatinine and bilirubin levels in predicting renal failure and mortality of patients hospitalized for SBP. Between March 1995 and September 1998, 127 cirrhotic patients with SBP who had not received plasma expansion were evaluated. Eighty-one patients (64%) were classified as having a high risk for renal failure and mortality (serum bilirubin >4 mg/dl or serum creatinine >1 mg/dl) and 46 (36%) as having a low risk. At admission, 36.3% of all patients presented renal failure. Mortality during their hospitalization was 23% among those with a high risk and 6.5% among those with a low risk (P=0.01). Renal failure occurred in 23% of the high-risk patients, compared with 2.6% of the low-risk patients (P=0.006). The presence of hyponatraemia was significantly associated with higher mortality and renal failure in the high-risk group. Our retrospective review of patients with SBP suggests that serum bilirubin levels >4 mg and serum creatinine levels >1 mg/dl at the time of diagnosis represent significant risk factors for the clinical outcomes of patients with SBP. Patients without these risk factors may have a very low likelihood of death or renal failure.

Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Layton, J Bradley

2010-07-27

The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44). The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Mediterranean diet, lifestyle factors, and 10-year mortality in elderly European men and women: the HALE project.

PubMed

Knoops, Kim T B; de Groot, Lisette C P G M; Kromhout, Daan; Perrin, Anne-Elisabeth; Moreiras-Varela, Olga; Menotti, Alessandro; van Staveren, Wija A

2004-09-22

Dietary patterns and lifestyle factors are associated with mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer, but few studies have investigated these factors in combination. To investigate the single and combined effect of Mediterranean diet, being physically active, moderate alcohol use, and nonsmoking on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in European elderly individuals. The Healthy Ageing: a Longitudinal study in Europe (HALE) population, comprising individuals enrolled in the Survey in Europe on Nutrition and the Elderly: a Concerned Action (SENECA) and the Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Elderly (FINE) studies, includes 1507 apparently healthy men and 832 women, aged 70 to 90 years in 11 European countries. This cohort study was conducted between 1988 and 2000. Ten-year mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. During follow-up, 935 participants died: 371 from cardiovascular diseases, 233 from cancer, and 145 from other causes; for 186, the cause of death was unknown. Adhering to a Mediterranean diet (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68-0.88), moderate alcohol use (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.91), physical activity (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.55-0.72), and nonsmoking (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.57-0.75) were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HRs controlled for age, sex, years of education, body mass index, study, and other factors). Similar results were observed for mortality from coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. The combination of 4 low risk factors lowered the all-cause mortality rate to 0.35 (95% CI, 0.28-0.44). In total, lack of adherence to this low-risk pattern was associated with a population attributable risk of 60% of all deaths, 64% of deaths from coronary heart disease, 61% from cardiovascular diseases, and 60% from cancer. Among individuals aged 70 to 90 years, adherence to a Mediterranean diet and healthful lifestyle is associated with a more than 50% lower rate of all-causes and cause-specific mortality.

Premature mortality in active convulsive epilepsy in rural Kenya

PubMed Central

Bottomley, Christian; Fegan, Gregory; Chengo, Eddie; Odhiambo, Rachael; Bauni, Evasius; Neville, Brian; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Sander, Josemir W.; Newton, Charles R.

2014-01-01

Objective: We estimated premature mortality and identified causes of death and associated factors in people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) in rural Kenya. Methods: In this prospective population-based study, people with ACE were identified in a cross-sectional survey and followed up regularly for 3 years, during which information on deaths and associated factors was collected. We used a validated verbal autopsy tool to establish putative causes of death. Age-specific rate ratios and standardized mortality ratios were estimated. Poisson regression was used to identify mortality risk factors. Results: There were 61 deaths among 754 people with ACE, yielding a rate of 33.3/1,000 persons/year. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 6.5. Mortality was higher across all ACE age groups. Nonadherence to antiepileptic drugs (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 3.37), cognitive impairment (aRR 4.55), and age (50+ years) (rate ratio 4.56) were risk factors for premature mortality. Most deaths (56%) were directly related to epilepsy, with prolonged seizures/possible status epilepticus (38%) most frequently associated with death; some of these may have been due to sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). Possible SUDEP was the likely cause in another 7%. Conclusion: Mortality in people with ACE was more than 6-fold greater than expected. This may be reduced by improving treatment adherence and prompt management of prolonged seizures and supporting those with cognitive impairment. PMID:24443454

Perceptions of race/ethnic discrimination in relation to mortality among Black women: results from the Black Women's Health Study.

PubMed

Albert, Michelle A; Cozier, Yvette; Ridker, Paul M; Palmer, Julie R; Glynn, Robert J; Rose, Lynda; Halevy, Nitsan; Rosenberg, Lynn

2010-05-24

Because racial discrimination is a form of chronic psychological stress that might unfavorably affect health, we examined whether perceived experiences of racism among black women are associated with mortality. We followed 48 924 participants in the Black Women's Health Study (mean age, 40.5 years) for 8 years to assess the risk of all-cause mortality associated with perceived experiences of racism. Subanalyses of cancer and cardiovascular mortality were also conducted. Perceived racism was evaluated by 8 questions about institutionalized racism (unfair treatment on the job, in housing, or by the police) and everyday experiences of racism (eg, others acting as if the woman was not intelligent). We estimated the relative risk of death with Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for traditional and socioenvironmental risk factors. During 412 224 person years of follow-up from 1997 to 2005, there were 920 deaths, including 277 due to cancer and 195 due to cardiovascular causes. All-cause mortality was not associated with institutionalized racism (relative risk, 1.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.2) for the highest category vs the lowest or with everyday racism (relative risk, 0.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.2) for the highest quartile compared with the lowest. Risk estimates for the highest categories of perceived racism relative to the lowest were greater than 1.0 for cancer deaths and less than 1.0 for cardiovascular disease death but were not statistically significant. In this large prospective study of black women, reported experiences of racism were not significantly related to mortality. Longer follow-up of this relatively young cohort and further work is warranted in this complex area of research because continued race/ethnic disparities in mortality are not entirely explained by traditional risk factors.

The Life-Long Mortality Risks Of World War II Experiences

PubMed Central

Elder, Glen H.; Brown, James Scott; Martin, Leslie R.; Friedman, Howard W.

2009-01-01

Objective This longitudinal study of American veterans investigated the mortality risks of five World War II military experiences (i.e., combat exposure) and their variation among veterans in the post-war years. Methods The male subjects (N=854) are members of the Stanford-Terman study, and 38 percent served in World War II. Cox models (proportional hazards regressions) compared the relative mortality risk associated with each military experience. Results Overseas duty, service in the Pacific and exposure to combat significantly increased the mortality risks of veterans in the study. Individual differences in education, mental health in 1950, and age at entry into the military, as well as personality factors made no difference in these results. Conclusions A gradient is observable such that active duty on the home front, followed by overseas duty, service in the Pacific, and combat exposure markedly increased the risk of relatively early mortality. Potential linking mechanisms include heavy drinking. PMID:20161074

[Liver cirrhosis mortality in Mexico. II. Excess mortality and pulque consumption].

PubMed

Narro-Robles, J; Gutiérrez-Avila, J H; López-Cervantes, M; Borges, G; Rosovsky, H

1992-01-01

Over the years high cirrhosis mortality rates have been reported in Mexico City and in the surrounding states (Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla and the State of Mexico); on the contrary, well defined areas, such as the northern states, have shown a considerably lower mortality rate. This situation may indicate that some factors such as the pattern of alcoholic intake and other environmental characteristics could explain this striking difference. To determine the role of alcohol, the availability and consumption of alcohol at regional and state level were compared with cirrhosis mortality rates. A high and statistically significant correlation was found with pulque availability and consumption (r = 72-92%, p less than 0.01) in all periods of time under examination. On the contrary, a statistically significant negative association was observed with beer consumption and a positive, but not significant correlation, with distilled alcoholic beverages. Infectious hepatitis incidence, prevalence of exclusive use of native languages (as an indirect index of ethnic background) and nutritional deficiencies were also studied as possible risk factors. Nutritional deficiencies and the prevalence of exclusive use of náhuatl and otomí languages were positively correlated. These results can be useful to conduct further epidemiological studies still needed to determine the etiologic role of pulque consumption as well as of the other risk factors. Nonetheless, the current data stress the need to implement public health programs to reduce alcohol consumption, especially pulque, and to minimize the impact of these risk factors in high mortality areas.

Continuous relationships between non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and both cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study.

PubMed

Barr, E L M; Boyko, E J; Zimmet, P Z; Wolfe, R; Tonkin, A M; Shaw, J E

2009-03-01

Hyperglycaemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in individuals without diabetes. We investigated: (1) whether the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality extended continuously throughout the range of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h plasma glucose (2hPG) and HbA(1c) values; and (2) the ability of these measures to improve risk prediction for mortality. Data on 10,026 people aged >or=25 years without diagnosed diabetes were obtained from the population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Between 1999 and 2000, FPG, 2hPG and HbA(1c) were assessed and all-cause (332 deaths) and CVD (88 deaths) mortality were obtained after 7 years. Both 2hPG and HbA(1c) exhibited linear relationships with all-cause and CVD mortality, whereas FPG showed J-shaped relationships. The adjusted HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality per SD increase was 1.2 (1.1-1.3) for 2hPG and 1.1 (1.0-1.2) for HbA(1c). The HR for FPG <5.1 mmol/l (per SD decrease) was 2.0 (1.3-3.0); for FPG >or=5.1 mmol/l (per SD increase) the HR was 1.1 (1.0-1.2). Corresponding HRs for CVD mortality were 1.2 (1.0-1.4), 1.2 (1.0-1.3), 4.0 (2.1-7.6) and 1.3 (1.1-1.4). The discriminative ability of each measure was similar; no measure substantially improved individual risk identification over traditional risk factors. In individuals without diagnosed diabetes, 2hPG and FPG, but not HbA(1c) were significant predictors of all-cause mortality, whereas all measures were significant predictors of CVD mortality. However, these glucose measures did not substantially improve individual risk identification.

Two denominators for one numerator: the example of neonatal mortality.

PubMed

Harmon, Quaker E; Basso, Olga; Weinberg, Clarice R; Wilcox, Allen J

2018-06-01

Preterm delivery is one of the strongest predictors of neonatal mortality. A given exposure may increase neonatal mortality directly, or indirectly by increasing the risk of preterm birth. Efforts to assess these direct and indirect effects are complicated by the fact that neonatal mortality arises from two distinct denominators (i.e. two risk sets). One risk set comprises fetuses, susceptible to intrauterine pathologies (such as malformations or infection), which can result in neonatal death. The other risk set comprises live births, who (unlike fetuses) are susceptible to problems of immaturity and complications of delivery. In practice, fetal and neonatal sources of neonatal mortality cannot be separated-not only because of incomplete information, but because risks from both sources can act on the same newborn. We use simulations to assess the repercussions of this structural problem. We first construct a scenario in which fetal and neonatal factors contribute separately to neonatal mortality. We introduce an exposure that increases risk of preterm birth (and thus neonatal mortality) without affecting the two baseline sets of neonatal mortality risk. We then calculate the apparent gestational-age-specific mortality for exposed and unexposed newborns, using as the denominator either fetuses or live births at a given gestational age. If conditioning on gestational age successfully blocked the mediating effect of preterm delivery, then exposure would have no effect on gestational-age-specific risk. Instead, we find apparent exposure effects with either denominator. Except for prediction, neither denominator provides a meaningful way to define gestational-age-specific neonatal mortality.

Atrial fibrillation in cardiac resynchronization therapy with a defibrillator: a risk factor for mortality, appropriate and inappropriate shocks.

PubMed

van Boven, Nick; Theuns, Dominic; Bogaard, Kjell; Ruiter, Jaap; Kimman, Geert; Berman, Lily; VAN DER Ploeg, Tjeerd; Kardys, Isabella; Umans, Victor

2013-10-01

Knowledge about predictive factors for mortality and (in)appropriate shocks in cardiac resynchronization therapy with a defibrillator (CRT-D) should be available and updated to predict clinical outcome. We retrospectively analyzed 543 consecutive patients assigned to CRT-D in 2 tertiary medical centers. The aim of this study was to assess risk factors for all-cause mortality, appropriate and inappropriate shocks. Mean follow-up time was 3.2 (±1.8) years. A total of 110 (20%) patients died, 71 (13%) received ≥1 appropriate shocks, and 33 (6.1%) received ≥1 inappropriate shocks. No patients received a His bundle ablation and biventricular pacing percentage was not analyzed. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that a history of atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR 1.74 CI 1.06-2.86), higher creatinine (HR 1.12; CI 1.08-1.16), and a poorer left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HR 0.97; CI 0.94-1.01) independently predict all-cause mortality. In the entire cohort, history of AF and secondary prevention were independent predictors of appropriate shocks and variables associated with inappropriate shocks were history of AF and QRS ≥150 milliseconds. In primary prevention patients, history of AF also predicted appropriate shocks as did ischemic cardiomyopathy and poorer LVEF. History of AF, QRS ≥150 milliseconds, and lower creatinine were associated with inappropriate shocks in this subgroup. Appropriate shocks increased mortality risk, but inappropriate shocks did not. In symptomatic CHF patients treated with CRT-D, history of AF is an independent risk factor not only for mortality, but also for appropriate and inappropriate shocks. Further efforts in AF management may optimize the care in CRT-D patients. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Depression as a risk factor for poor prognosis among patients with acute coronary syndrome: systematic review and recommendations: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association.

PubMed

Lichtman, Judith H; Froelicher, Erika S; Blumenthal, James A; Carney, Robert M; Doering, Lynn V; Frasure-Smith, Nancy; Freedland, Kenneth E; Jaffe, Allan S; Leifheit-Limson, Erica C; Sheps, David S; Vaccarino, Viola; Wulsin, Lawson

2014-03-25

Although prospective studies, systematic reviews, and meta-analyses have documented an association between depression and increased morbidity and mortality in a variety of cardiac populations, depression has not yet achieved formal recognition as a risk factor for poor prognosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome by the American Heart Association and other health organizations. The purpose of this scientific statement is to review available evidence and recommend whether depression should be elevated to the status of a risk factor for patients with acute coronary syndrome. Writing group members were approved by the American Heart Association's Scientific Statement and Manuscript Oversight Committees. A systematic literature review on depression and adverse medical outcomes after acute coronary syndrome was conducted that included all-cause mortality, cardiac mortality, and composite outcomes for mortality and nonfatal events. The review assessed the strength, consistency, independence, and generalizability of the published studies. A total of 53 individual studies (32 reported on associations with all-cause mortality, 12 on cardiac mortality, and 22 on composite outcomes) and 4 meta-analyses met inclusion criteria. There was heterogeneity across studies in terms of the demographic composition of study samples, definition and measurement of depression, length of follow-up, and covariates included in the multivariable models. Despite limitations in some individual studies, our review identified generally consistent associations between depression and adverse outcomes. Despite the heterogeneity of published studies included in this review, the preponderance of evidence supports the recommendation that the American Heart Association should elevate depression to the status of a risk factor for adverse medical outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

A prospective study of treatment of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae infections and risk factors associated with outcome.

PubMed

de Maio Carrilho, Claudia M D; de Oliveira, Larissa Marques; Gaudereto, Juliana; Perozin, Jamile S; Urbano, Mariana Ragassi; Camargo, Carlos H; Grion, Cintia M C; Levin, Anna Sara S; Costa, Silvia F

2016-11-03

To describe the clinical and microbiological data of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) infections, the treatment used, hospital- and infection-related mortality, and risk factors for death. A prospective cohort conducted from March 2011 to December 2012. Clinical, demographic, and microbiological data such as in vitro sensitivity, clonality, carbapenemase gene mortality related to infection, and overall mortality were evaluated. Data were analyzed using Epi Info version 7.0 (CDC, Atlanta, GA, USA) and SPSS (Chicago, IL, USA). One hundred and twenty-seven patients were evaluated. Pneumonia, 52 (42 %), and urinary tract infections (UTI), 51 (40.2 %), were the most frequent sites of infection. The isolates were polyclonal; the Bla KPC gene was found in 75.6 % of isolates, and 27 % of isolates were resistant to colistin. Mortality related to infection was 34.6 %, and was higher among patients with pneumonia (61.4 %). Combination therapy was used in 98 (77.2 %), and monotherapy in 22.8 %; 96.5 % of them were UTI patients. Shock, age, and dialysis were independent risk factors for death. There was no difference in infection-related death comparing colistin-susceptible and colistin-resistant infections (p = 0.46); neither in survival rate comparing the use of combination therapy with two drugs or more than two drugs (p = 0.32). CRE infection mortality was higher among patients with pneumonia. Infections caused by colistin-resistant isolates did not increase mortality. The use of more than two drugs on combination therapy did not show a protective effect on outcome. The isolates were polyclonal, and the bla KPC gene was the only carbapenemase found. Shock, dialysis, and age over 60 years were independent risk factors for death.

Impact of Molecular Epidemiology and Reduced Susceptibility to Glycopeptides and Daptomycin on Outcomes of Patients with Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia

PubMed Central

Lee, Hao-Yuan; Chen, Chyi-Liang; Liu, Shu-Ying; Yan, Yu-Shan; Chang, Chee-Jen; Chiu, Cheng-Hsun

2015-01-01

Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteremia was associated with high mortality, but the risk factors associated with mortality remain controversial. Methods A retrospective cohort study was designed. All patients with MRSA bacteremia admitted were screened and collected for their clinical presentations and laboratory characteristics. Minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) type of bacterial isolates were determined. Risk factors for mortality were analyzed. Results Most MRSA isolates from the 189 enrolled patients showed reduced susceptibility to antibiotics, including MIC of vancomycin ≥ 1.5 mg/L (79.9%), teicoplanin ≥ 2 mg/L (86.2%), daptomycin ≥ 0.38 mg/L (73.0%) and linezolid ≥ 1.5 mg/L (64.0%). MRSA with vancomycin MIC ≥ 1.5 mg/L and inappropriate initial therapy were the two most important risk factors for mortality (both P < 0.05; odds ratio = 7.88 and 6.78). Hospital-associated MRSA (HA-MRSA), carrying SCCmec type I, II, or III, was associated with reduced susceptibility to vancomycin, teicoplanin or daptomycin and also with higher attributable mortality (all P < 0.05). Creeping vancomycin MIC was linked to higher MIC of teicoplanin and daptomycin (both P < 0.001), but not linezolid (P = 0.759). Conclusions Giving empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics for at least 5 days to treat catheter-related infections, pneumonia, soft tissue infection and other infections was the most important risk factor for acquiring subsequent HA-MRSA infection. Choice of effective anti-MRSA agents for treating MRSA bacteremia should be based on MIC of vancomycin, teicoplanin and daptomycin. Initiation of an effective anti-MRSA agent without elevated MIC in 2 days is crucial for reducing mortality. PMID:26295150

Increased Vascular Disease Mortality Risk in Prediabetic Korean Adults Is Mainly Attributable to Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Kim, Nam Hoon; Kwon, Tae Yeon; Yu, Sungwook; Kim, Nan Hee; Choi, Kyung Mook; Baik, Sei Hyun; Park, Yousung; Kim, Sin Gon

2017-04-01

Prediabetes is a known risk factor for vascular diseases; however, its differential contribution to mortality risk from various vascular disease subtypes is not known. The subjects of the National Health Insurance Service in Korea (2002-2013) nationwide cohort were stratified into normal glucose tolerance (fasting glucose <100 mg/dL), impaired fasting glucose (IFG) stage 1 (100-109 mg/dL), IFG stage 2 (110-125 mg/dL), and diabetes mellitus groups based on the fasting glucose level. A Cox regression analysis with counting process formulation was used to assess the mortality risk for vascular disease and its subtypes-ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. When adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index, IFG stage 2, but not stage 1, was associated with significantly higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.34) and vascular disease mortality (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.08-1.49) compared with normal glucose tolerance. Among the vascular disease subtypes, mortality from ischemic stroke was significantly higher (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.18-2.18) in subjects with IFG stage 2 but not from ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke. The ischemic stroke mortality associated with IFG stage 2 remained significantly high when adjusted other modifiable vascular disease risk factors (HR, 1.51; 95% CI: 1.10-2.09) and medical treatments (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.19-2.57). Higher IFG degree (fasting glucose, 110-125 mg/dL) was associated with increased all-cause and vascular disease mortality. The increased vascular disease mortality in IFG stage 2 was attributable to ischemic stroke, but not ischemic heart disease or hemorrhagic stroke in Korean adults. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Non-Malignant Respiratory Disease Among Workers in Industries Using Styrene—A Review of the Evidence

PubMed Central

Nett, Randall J.; Cox-Ganser, Jean M.; Hubbs, Ann F.; Ruder, Avima M.; Cummings, Kristin J.; Huang, Yuh-Chin T.; Kreiss, Kathleen

2017-01-01

Background Asthma and obliterative bronchiolitis (OB) cases have occurred among styrene-exposed workers. We aimed to investigate styrene as a risk factor for non-malignant respiratory disease (NMRD). Methods From a literature review, we identified case reports and assessed cross-sectional and mortality studies for strength of evidence of positive association (i.e., strong, intermediate, suggestive, none) between styrene exposure and NMRD-related morbidity and mortality. Results We analyzed 55 articles and two unpublished case reports. Ten OB cases and eight asthma cases were identified. Six (75%) asthma cases had abnormal styrene inhalation challenges. Thirteen (87%) of 15 cross-sectional studies and 12 (50%) of 24 mortality studies provided at least suggestive evidence that styrene was associated with NMRD-related morbidity or mortality. Six (66%) of nine mortality studies assessing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related mortality indicated excess mortality. Conclusions Available evidence suggests styrene exposure is a potential risk factor for NMRD. Additional studies of styrene-exposed workers are warranted. PMID:28079275

Food Sources of Saturated Fat and the Association With Mortality: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

O’Sullivan, Therese A.; Mitrou, Francis; Lawrence, David

2013-01-01

We summarized the data related to foods high in saturated fat and risk of mortality. We searched Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and ProQuest for studies from January 1952 to May 2012. We identified 26 publications with individual dietary data and all-cause, total cancer, or cardiovascular mortality as endpoints. Pooled relative risk estimates demonstrated that high intakes of milk, cheese, yogurt, and butter were not associated with a significantly increased risk of mortality compared with low intakes. High intakes of meat and processed meat were significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality but were associated with a decreased risk in a subanalysis of Asian studies. The overall quality of studies was variable. Associations varied by food group and population. This may be because of factors outside saturated fat content of individual foods. There is an ongoing need for improvement in assessment tools and methods that investigate food sources of saturated fat and mortality to inform dietary guidelines. PMID:23865702

The Surgical Mortality Probability Model: derivation and validation of a simple risk prediction rule for noncardiac surgery.

PubMed

Glance, Laurent G; Lustik, Stewart J; Hannan, Edward L; Osler, Turner M; Mukamel, Dana B; Qian, Feng; Dick, Andrew W

2012-04-01

To develop a 30-day mortality risk index for noncardiac surgery that can be used to communicate risk information to patients and guide clinical management at the "point-of-care," and that can be used by surgeons and hospitals to internally audit their quality of care. Clinicians rely on the Revised Cardiac Risk Index to quantify the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Because mortality from noncardiac causes accounts for many perioperative deaths, there is also a need for a simple bedside risk index to predict 30-day all-cause mortality after noncardiac surgery. Retrospective cohort study of 298,772 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery during 2005 to 2007 using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. The 9-point S-MPM (Surgical Mortality Probability Model) 30-day mortality risk index was derived empirically and includes three risk factors: ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) physical status, emergency status, and surgery risk class. Patients with ASA physical status I, II, III, IV or V were assigned either 0, 2, 4, 5, or 6 points, respectively; intermediate- or high-risk procedures were assigned 1 or 2 points, respectively; and emergency procedures were assigned 1 point. Patients with risk scores less than 5 had a predicted risk of mortality less than 0.50%, whereas patients with a risk score of 5 to 6 had a risk of mortality between 1.5% and 4.0%. Patients with a risk score greater than 6 had risk of mortality more than 10%. S-MPM exhibited excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.897) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 13.0, P = 0.023) in the validation data set. Thirty-day mortality after noncardiac surgery can be accurately predicted using a simple and accurate risk score based on information readily available at the bedside. This risk index may play a useful role in facilitating shared decision making, developing and implementing risk-reduction strategies, and guiding quality improvement efforts.

Individual and Center-Level Factors Affecting Mortality Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

Alleman, Brandon W.; Li, Lei; Dagle, John M.; Smith, P. Brian; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Laughon, Matthew M.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Goldberg, Ronald N.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Murray, Jeffrey C.; Cotten, C. Michael; Shankaran, Seetha; Walsh, Michele C.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Ellsbury, Dan L.; Hale, Ellen C.; Newman, Nancy S.; Wallace, Dennis D.; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine factors affecting center differences in mortality for extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. METHODS: We analyzed data for 5418 ELBW infants born at 16 Neonatal Research Network centers during 2006–2009. The primary outcomes of early mortality (≤12 hours after birth) and in-hospital mortality were assessed by using multilevel hierarchical models. Models were developed to investigate associations of center rates of selected interventions with mortality while adjusting for patient-level risk factors. These analyses were performed for all gestational ages (GAs) and separately for GAs <25 weeks and ≥25 weeks. RESULTS: Early and in-hospital mortality rates among centers were 5% to 36% and 11% to 53% for all GAs, 13% to 73% and 28% to 90% for GAs <25 weeks, and 1% to 11% and 7% to 26% for GAs ≥25 weeks, respectively. Center intervention rates significantly predicted both early and in-hospital mortality for infants <25 weeks. For infants ≥25 weeks, intervention rates did not predict mortality. The variance in mortality among centers was significant for all GAs and outcomes. Center use of interventions and patient risk factors explained some but not all of the center variation in mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Center intervention rates explain a portion of the center variation in mortality, especially for infants born at <25 weeks’ GA. This finding suggests that deaths may be prevented by standardizing care for very early GA infants. However, differences in patient characteristics and center intervention rates do not account for all of the observed variability in mortality; and for infants with GA ≥25 weeks these differences account for only a small part of the variation in mortality. PMID:23753096

Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Baker, Mark; Harris, Tyler; Stephenson, David

2015-03-01

Actual and perceived social isolation are both associated with increased risk for early mortality. In this meta-analytic review, our objective is to establish the overall and relative magnitude of social isolation and loneliness and to examine possible moderators. We conducted a literature search of studies (January 1980 to February 2014) using MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Social Work Abstracts, and Google Scholar. The included studies provided quantitative data on mortality as affected by loneliness, social isolation, or living alone. Across studies in which several possible confounds were statistically controlled for, the weighted average effect sizes were as follows: social isolation odds ratio (OR) = 1.29, loneliness OR = 1.26, and living alone OR = 1.32, corresponding to an average of 29%, 26%, and 32% increased likelihood of mortality, respectively. We found no differences between measures of objective and subjective social isolation. Results remain consistent across gender, length of follow-up, and world region, but initial health status has an influence on the findings. Results also differ across participant age, with social deficits being more predictive of death in samples with an average age younger than 65 years. Overall, the influence of both objective and subjective social isolation on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. © The Author(s) 2015.

Elevated fasting glucose and albuminuria may be a marker for all-cause mortality in Indigenous adults in North Queensland - a follow up study, 1998-2006.

PubMed

Li, Ming; McDermott, Robyn

2017-04-01

To document risk factors of all-cause mortality in a cohort of indigenous Australians from 23 communities of North Queensland during 1998-2006. Among 2787 indigenous adults, baseline weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting glucose, lipids, gamma-glutamyl transferase, urine albumin creatinine ratio, smoking, alcohol intake and physical activity were measured in 1998-2000. Deaths were ascertained from State Registry of Deaths, hospitalization and clinical records till 2006. Mortality risk factors were assessed using a Cox proportional-hazards model. The standardized all-cause mortality rate was 23.2/1000 person-years (95% CI 20.3-26.3/1000 pys). After adjusting for age, sex, and ethnicity, baseline plasm fasting glucose >=5.5mmol/L was associated with a 50% increased risk of death (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-2.0). Albuminuria was associated with all-cause mortality with a hazards ratio of 1.4 for microalbuminuria (95% CI 1.0-1.9) and 2.6 (95% CI 1.8-3.7) for macroalbuminuria. Gamma-glutamyl transferase >=50IU was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality by 40% (95% CI 1.04-1.8). Fasting glycaemia, albuminuria, and gamma-glutamyl transferase, may be a marker for all-cause mortality within this cohort. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of risk factors for mortality from heart failure in Asian and non-Asian populations: An overview of individual participant data from 32 prospective cohorts from the Asia-Pacific Region

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Most of what is known regarding the epidemiology of mortality from heart failure (HF) comes from studies within Western populations with few data available from the Asia-Pacific region where the burden of heart failure is increasing. Methods Individual level data from 543694 (85% Asian; 36% female) participants from 32 cohorts in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration were included in the analysis. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for mortality from HF were estimated separately for Asians and non-Asians for a quintet of cardiovascular risk factors: systolic blood pressure, diabetes, body mass index, cigarette smoking and total cholesterol. All analyses were stratified by sex and study. Results During 3,793,229 person years of follow-up there were 614 HF deaths (80% Asian). The positive associations between elevated blood pressure, obesity, and cigarette smoking were consistent for Asians and non-Asians. There was evidence to indicate that diabetes was a weaker risk factor for death from HF for Asians compared with non-Asians: HR 1.26 (95% CI: 0.74-2.13) versus 3.04 (95% CI 1.76-5.25) respectively; p for interaction = 0.022. Additional adjustment for covariates did not materially change the overall associations. There was no good evidence to indicate that total cholesterol was a risk factor for HF mortality in either population. Conclusions Most traditional cardiovascular risk factors including elevated blood pressure, obesity and cigarette smoking appear to operate similarly to increase the risk of death from HF in Asians and non-Asians populations alike. PMID:24884382

Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors.

PubMed

Chung, Yeonseung; Yang, Daewon; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Fook Sheng Ng, Chris; Kim, Yoonhee; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro

2018-05-02

Previous studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes. Our objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables. We first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors. MMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated ( p <0.01) with lower heat risk, whereas higher humidity was associated with higher cold risk. A higher percentage of elderly people was associated with a higher cold risk, whereas higher economic strength of the prefecture was related to lower cold risk. Population susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546.

Profile of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Mortality in Patients with Symptomatic Peripheral Arterial Disease

PubMed Central

Zanati, Silméia Garcia; Mouraria, Guilherme Grisi; Matsubara, Luiz Shigero; Giannini, Mariângela; Matsubara, Beatriz B

2009-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The present study examines cardiovascular risk factor profiles and 24-month mortality in patients with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease. DESIGN STUDY: Prospective observational study including 75 consecutive patients with PAD (67 ± 9.7 years of age; 52 men and 23 women) hospitalized for planned peripheral vascular reconstruction. Doppler echocardiograms were performed before surgery in 54 cases. Univariate analyses were performed using Student’s t-test or Fisher’s exact test. Survival analysis at 24-month follow-up was performed using the Cox regression model and Kaplan-Meier method including age and chronic use of aspirin as covariates. Survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. RESULTS: Hypertension and smoking were the most frequent risk factors (52 cases and 51 cases, respectively), followed by diabetes (32 cases). Undertreated dyslipidemia was found in 26 cases. Fasting glycine levels (131 ± 69.1 mg/dl) were elevated in 29 cases. Myocardial hypertrophy was found in 18 out of 54 patients. Thirty-four patients had been treated with aspirin. Overall mortality over 24 months was 24% and was associated with age (HR: 0.064; CI95: 0.014–0.115; p=0.013) and lack of use of aspirin, as no deaths occurred among those using this drug (p<0.001). No association was found between cardiovascular death (11 cases) and the other risk factors. CONCLUSION: There is a high prevalence of uncontrolled (treated or untreated) cardiovascular risk factors in patients undergoing planned peripheral vascular reconstruction, and chronic use of aspirin is associated with reduced all-cause mortality in these patients. PMID:19488590

Risk factors and treatment outcomes of bloodstream infection caused by extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacter species in adults with cancer.

PubMed

Huh, Kyungmin; Kang, Cheol-In; Kim, Jungok; Cho, Sun Young; Ha, Young Eun; Joo, Eun-Jeong; Chung, Doo Ryeon; Lee, Nam Yong; Peck, Kyong Ran; Song, Jae-Hoon

2014-02-01

Treatment of Enterobacter infection is complicated due to its intrinsic resistance to cephalosporins. Medical records of 192 adults with cancer who had Enterobacter bacteremia were analyzed retrospectively to evaluate the risk factors for and the treatment outcomes in extended-spectrum cephalosporin (ESC)-resistant Enterobacter bacteremia in adults with cancer. The main outcome measure was 30-day mortality. Of the 192 patients, 53 (27.6%) had bloodstream infections caused by ESC-resistant Enterobacter species. Recent use of a third-generation cephalosporin, older age, tumor progression at last evaluation, recent surgery, and nosocomial acquisition were associated with ESC-resistant Enterobacter bacteremia. The 30-day mortality rate was significantly higher in the resistant group. Multivariate analysis showed that respiratory tract infection, tumor progression, septic shock at presentation, Enterobacter aerogenes as the culprit pathogen, and diabetes mellitus were independent risk factors for mortality. ESC resistance was significantly associated with mortality in patients with E. aerogenes bacteremia, although not in the overall patient population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determinants of neonatal mortality in rural and urban Nigeria: Evidence from a population-based national survey.

PubMed

Adewuyi, Emmanuel O; Zhao, Yun

2017-02-01

Significant reduction in the global burden of neonatal mortality was achieved through the millennium development goals. In Nigeria, however, only a marginal reduction was realized. This study assesses the rural-urban differences in neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and the associated risk factors in Nigeria. The dataset from the 2013 Nigeria demographic and health survey (NDHS), disaggregated by rural-urban residence (n = 20 449 and 9935, respectively), was explored using univariate, bivariate, and multivariable analysis. Complex samples analysis was applied to adjust for the unequal selection probabilities due to the multi-stage cluster sampling method used in the 2013 NDHS. The adjusted relationship between the outcome and predictor variables was assessed on multi-level logistic regression analysis. NMR for rural and urban populations was 36 and 28 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. Risk factors in urban residence were lack of electricity access (adjusted OR [AOR], 1.555; 95%CI: 1.089-2.220), small birth size (as a proxy for low birthweight; AOR, 3.048; 95%CI: 2.047-4.537), and male gender (AOR, 1.666; 95%CI: 1.215-2.284). Risk factors in rural residence were small birth size (a proxy for low birthweight; AOR, 2.118; 95%CI: 1.600-2.804), and birth interval <2 years (AOR, 2.149; 95%CI: 1.760-2.624). Cesarean delivery was a risk factor both in rural (AOR, 5.038; 95%CI: 2.617-9.700) and urban Nigeria (AOR, 2.632; 95%CI: 1.543-4.489). Determinants of neonatal mortality were different in rural and urban Nigeria, and rural neonates had greater risk of mortality than their urban counterparts. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

Association between all-cause mortality and severity of depressive symptoms in patients with type 2 diabetes: Analysis from the Japan Diabetes Complications Study (JDCS).

PubMed

Matsunaga, Satoshi; Tanaka, Shiro; Fujihara, Kazuya; Horikawa, Chika; Iimuro, Satoshi; Kitaoka, Masafumi; Sato, Asako; Nakamura, Jiro; Haneda, Masakazu; Shimano, Hitoshi; Akanuma, Yasuo; Ohashi, Yasuo; Sone, Hirohito

2017-08-01

The aims of this study are to confirm whether the excess mortality caused by depressive symptoms is independent of severe hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to evaluate the association between all-cause mortality and degrees of severity of depressive symptoms in Japanese patients with T2DM. A total of 1160 Japanese patients with T2DM were eligible for this analysis. Participants were followed prospectively for 3years and their depressive states were evaluated at baseline by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the relative risk of all-cause mortality and was adjusted by possible confounding factors, including severe hypoglycemia, all of which are known as risk factors for both depression and mortality. After adjustment for severe hypoglycemia, each 5-point increase in the CES-D score was significantly associated with excess all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.69 [95% CI 1.26-2.17]). The spline curve of HRs for mortality according to total CES-D scores showed that mortality risk was slightly increased at lower scores but was sharply elevated at higher scores. A high score on the CES-D at baseline was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in patients with T2DM after adjusting for confounders including severe hypoglycemia. However, only a small effect on mortality risk was found at relatively lower levels of depressive symptoms in this population. Further research is needed to confirm this relationship between the severity of depressive symptoms and mortality in patients with T2DM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality following the Haitian earthquake of 2010: a stratified cluster survey

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Research that seeks to better understand vulnerability to earthquakes and risk factors associated with mortality in low resource settings is critical to earthquake preparedness and response efforts. This study aims to characterize mortality and associated risk factors in the 2010 Haitian earthquake. Methods In January 2011, a survey of the earthquake affected Haitian population was conducted in metropolitan Port-au-Prince. A stratified 60x20 cluster design (n = 1200 households) was used with 30 clusters sampled in both camp and neighborhood locations. Households were surveyed regarding earthquake impact, current living conditions, and unmet needs. Results Mortality was estimated at 24 deaths (confidence interval [CI]: 20–28) per 1,000 in the sample population. Using two approaches, extrapolation of the survey mortality rate to the exposed population yielded mortality estimates ranging from a low of 49,033 to a high of 86,555. No significant difference in mortality was observed by sex (p = .786); however, age was significant with adults age 50+ years facing increased mortality risk. Odds of death were not significantly higher in camps, with 27 deaths per 1,000 (CI: 22–34), compared to neighborhoods, where the death rate was 19 per 1,000 (CI: 15–25; p = 0.080). Crowding and residence in a multistory building were also associated with increased risk of death. Conclusions Haiti earthquake mortality estimates are widely varied, though epidemiologic surveys conducted to date suggest lower levels of mortality than officially reported figures. Strategies to mitigate future mortality burden in future earthquakes should consider improvements to the built environment that are feasible in urban resource-poor settings. PMID:23618373

Risk of death and readmission of hospital-admitted COPD exacerbations: European COPD Audit.

PubMed

Hartl, Sylvia; Lopez-Campos, Jose Luis; Pozo-Rodriguez, Francisco; Castro-Acosta, Ady; Studnicka, Michael; Kaiser, Bernhard; Roberts, C Michael

2016-01-01

Studies report high in-hospital and post-discharge mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations varying depending upon patient characteristics, hospital resources and treatment standards. This study aimed to investigate the patient, resource and organisational factors associated with in-hospital and 90-day post-discharge mortality and readmission of COPD exacerbations within the European COPD Audit. The audit collected data of COPD exacerbation admissions from 13 European countries.On admission, only 49.7% of COPD patients had spirometry results available and only 81.6% had blood gases taken. Using logistic regression analysis, the risk associated with in-hospital and post-discharge mortality was higher age, presence of acidotic respiratory failure, subsequent need for ventilatory support and presence of comorbidity. In addition, the 90-day risk of COPD readmission was associated with previous admissions. Only the number of respiratory specialists per 1000 beds, a variable related to hospital resources, decreased the risk of post-discharge mortality.The European COPD Audit identifies risk factors associated with in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and COPD readmission. Addressing the deficiencies in acute COPD care such as making spirometry available and measuring blood gases and providing noninvasive ventilation more regularly would provide opportunities to improve COPD outcomes. Copyright ©ERS 2016.

The influence of mortality and socioeconomic status on risk and delayed rewards: a life history theory approach.

PubMed

Griskevicius, Vladas; Tybur, Joshua M; Delton, Andrew W; Robertson, Theresa E

2011-06-01

Why do some people take risks and live for the present, whereas others avoid risks and save for the future? The evolutionary framework of life history theory predicts that preferences for risk and delay in gratification should be influenced by mortality and resource scarcity. A series of experiments examined how mortality cues influenced decisions involving risk preference (e.g., $10 for sure vs. 50% chance of $20) and temporal discounting (e.g., $5 now vs. $10 later). The effect of mortality depended critically on whether people grew up in a relatively resource-scarce or resource-plentiful environment. For individuals who grew up relatively poor, mortality cues led them to value the present and gamble for big immediate rewards. Conversely, for individuals who grew up relatively wealthy, mortality cues led them to value the future and avoid risky gambles. Overall, mortality cues appear to propel individuals toward diverging life history strategies as a function of childhood socioeconomic status, suggesting important implications for how environmental factors influence economic decisions and risky behaviors. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Is Previous Cardiac Surgery a Risk Factor for Short and Mid-term Mortality Following Total Aortic Arch Replacement in Patients with Stanford Type A Aortic Dissection?

PubMed

Ge, Yi-Peng; Li, Cheng-Nan; Chen, Lei; Liu, Wei; Cheng, Li-Jian; Liu, Yong-Min; Zheng, Jun; Ma, Wei-Guo; Zhu, Jun-Ming; Sun, Li-Zhong

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate if the previous cardiac surgery (PCS) is the risk factor for short- and mid-term mortality following total aortic arch replacement in patients with Stanford type A aortic dissection. Between February 2009 and February 2012, a total of 384 patients who suffered Stanford type A aortic dissection involving aortic arch underwent total aortic arch replacement with frozen elephant trunk. Of these patients, 36 patients had PCS. Logistic regression was used to identify if the previous cardiac surgery was the risk factor for in-hospital mortality. Propensity score-matching (1:1 match) was used to yield patients from the primary surgery group who matched PCS group with respect to pre-operative clinical characteristics and post-operative complications. Survival analysis and differences between the two groups were performed by the Kaplan-Meier estimate and the log-rank test. The overall in-hospital mortality was 8%. Logistic multiple regression identified that cardiopulmonary bypass time≥ 300minutes (OR=12.05, p<0.001) and surgical period from symptom onset shorter than one week (OR=2.43, p=0.04) were final risk factors for in-hospital mortality and PCS was not the final risk factor. Of 36 patients with PCS, three patients died in the hospital and 33 patients were discharged from the hospital. Of these 33 patients, 32 patients matched primary surgery group successfully. During the follow-up period, two patients died in PCS group, one patient died in primary surgery group. The mean follow-up time was 35.38±14.12 months. The five-year survival was 96% for the primary surgery group. Previous cardiac surgery group five-year survival was 73%. Five-year survival was not significantly different between the two groups (p=0.84 log-rank test). PCS is not the risk factor for short- and mid-term mortality following total aortic arch replacement in patients with Stanford type A aortic dissection. Copyright © 2015 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cognitive Impairment, Vulnerability, and Mortality Post Ischemic Stroke: A Five-Year Follow-Up of the Action on Secondary Prevention Interventions and Rehabilitation in Stroke (ASPIRE-S) Cohort.

PubMed

Gaynor, Eva; Rohde, Daniela; Large, Margaret; Mellon, Lisa; Hall, Patricia; Brewer, Linda; Conway, Orla; Hickey, Anne; Bennett, Kathleen; Dolan, Eamon; Callaly, Elizabeth; Williams, David

2018-05-23

The aim of this study was to examine predictors of mortality in patients 5 years after ischemic stroke, focusing on cognitive impairment, vulnerability, and vascular risk factors assessed at 6 months post stroke. Patients from the Action on Secondary Prevention Interventions and Rehabilitation in Stroke (ASPIRE-S) cohort were followed up 5 years post ischemic stroke. Vascular risk factors, cognitive impairment, and vulnerability were assessed at 6 months post stroke. Cognitive impairment was assessed using a cutoff score lower than 26 on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Vulnerability was defined as a score of 3 or higher on the Vulnerable Elders Scale (VES). Mortality and date of death were ascertained using hospital records, death notifications, and contact with general practitioners. Predictors of mortality were explored using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented. Sixty-three of 256 patients (24.6%) assessed at 6 months post stroke had died within 5 years. Cognitive impairment (HR [95% CI]: 2.19 [1.42-3.39]), vulnerability (HR [95% CI]: 5.23 [2.92-9.36]), atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR [95% CI]: 2.31 [1.80-2.96]), and dyslipidemia (HR [95% CI]: 1.90 [1.10-3.27]) were associated with increased risk of 5-year mortality. Vulnerability, cognitive impairment, AF, and dyslipidemia at 6 months were associated with increased risks of mortality 5 years post ischemic stroke. Identification and management of these risk factors should be emphasized in poststroke care. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic Status (SES) and Childhood Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) Mortality

PubMed Central

Knoble, Naomi B.; Alderfer, Melissa A.; Hossain, Md Jobayer

2016-01-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) is a complex construct of multiple indicators, known to impact cancer outcomes, but has not been adequately examined among pediatric AML patients. This study aimed to identify the patterns of co-occurrence of multiple community-level SES indicators and to explore associations between various patterns of these indicators and pediatric AML mortality risk. A nationally representative US sample of 3,651 pediatric AML patients, aged 0–19 years at diagnosis was drawn from 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database registries created between 1973 and 2012. Factor analysis, cluster analysis, stratified univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used. Four SES factors accounting for 87% of the variance in SES indicators were identified: F1) economic/educational disadvantage, less immigration; F2) immigration-related features (foreign-born, language-isolation, crowding), less mobility F3) housing instability; and, F4) absence of moving. F1 and F3 showed elevated risk of mortality, adjusted hazards ratios (aHR) (95% CI): 1.07(1.02–1.12) and 1.05(1.00–1.10), respectively. Seven SES-defined cluster groups were identified. Cluster 1: (low economic/educational disadvantage, few immigration-related features, and residential-stability) showed the minimum risk of mortality. Compared to Cluster 1, Cluster 3: (high economic/educational disadvantage, high-mobility) and Cluster 6: (moderately-high economic/educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features) exhibited substantially greater risk of mortality, aHR(95% CI) = 1.19(1.0–1.4) and 1.23 (1.1–1.5), respectively. Factors of correlated SES-indicators and their pattern-based groups demonstrated differential risks in the pediatric AML mortality indicating the need of special public-health attention in areas with economic-educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features. PMID:27543948

Predictive factors of mortality in pediatric patients with acute renal injury associated with sepsis.

PubMed

Riyuzo, Marcia C; Silveira, Liciana V de A; Macedo, Célia S; Fioretto, José R

To evaluate the prognosis factors of children with sepsis and acute kidney injury. This was a retrospective study of children with sepsis and acute kidney injury that were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of a tertiary hospital. A multivariate analysis was performed to compare risk factors for mortality. Seventy-seven children (47 males) were retrospectively studied, median age of 4 months. Mean length of hospital stay was 7.33±0.16 days, 68.9% of patients received mechanical ventilation, 25.9% had oligo-anuria, and peritoneal dialysis was performed in 42.8%. The pRIFLE criteria were: injury (5.2%) and failure (94.8%), and the staging system criteria were: stage 1 (14.3%), stage 2 (29.9%), and stage 3 (55.8%). The mortality rate was 33.7%. In the multivariate analysis, the risk factors for mortality were PICU length of stay (OR=0.615, SE=0.1377, 95% CI=0.469-0.805, p=0.0004); invasive mechanical ventilation (OR=14.599, SE=1.1178, 95% CI=1.673-133.7564, p=0.0155); need for dialysis (OR=9.714, SE=0.8088, 95% CI=1.990-47.410, p=0.0049), and hypoalbuminemia (OR=10.484, SE=1.1147, 95% CI=1.179-93.200, p=0.035). The risk factors for mortality in children with acute kidney injury were associated with sepsis severity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda.

Ventilator associated pneumonia: perspectives on the burden of illness.

PubMed

Cook, D

2000-01-01

The objective of this narrative review is to summarize selected current concepts and clinical evidence regarding the burden of illness of VAP, including its epidemiology, diagnosis, attributable mortality and risk factors. Studies were identified through MEDLINE, EMBASE, bibliographies of primary and review articles and personal files. While cross sectional studies inform us about VAP prevalence, longitudinal studies inform us of the cumulative risk and conditional risk of developing VAP. Reported VAP rates are modulated by factors related to case mix, causative microorganisms, interventions that influence risk over time, and VAP definitions employed. Population-specific and organism-specific VAP rates are needed to avoid misleading benchmarking between different ICUs, and to minimize inappropriate between-study comparisons. Observational studies have shown that invasive sampling techniques versus non-invasive approaches to diagnose VAP facilitates more targeted antibiotic treatment; however, the influence of the diagnostic method on endpoints such as mortality is less clear. VAP is associated with approximately a 4 day increase in length of ICU stay and an attributable mortality of approximately 20-30%. Fixed VAP risk factors include underlying cardiorespiratory disease, neurologic injury and trauma. Modifiable VAP risk factors include supine body position, witnessed aspiration, paralytic agents and antibiotic exposure. If modifiable risk factors tested in randomized trials lower VAP rates, such as semirecumbency versus supine positioning, these represent effective VAP prevention strategies. Ventilator-associated pneumonia is a major morbid outcome among critically ill patients. Studies evaluating more effective prevention and treatment strategies are needed.

Pediatric burns mortality risk factors in a developing country’s tertiary burns intensive care unit

PubMed Central

Agbenorku, Pius; Agbenorku, Manolo; Fiifi-Yankson, Papa Kwesi

2013-01-01

Aim: This study aimed at identifying risk factors related to pediatric burns mortality in a middle income country such as Ghana. Methods: The data for the three years retrospective study (May 2009 – April 2012) was obtained from the pediatric burn admissions records and patients’ folders of the Reconstructive Plastic Surgery & Burns Unit (RPSBU), Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital (KATH), Ghana. Data retrieved included: Demographic features, Total Burned Surface Area (TBSA) incurred; Aetiology of burns; Duration of the admission; Outcome of admission; Part of the body affected and Cost incurred. Ethical approval for this study was obtained from the KNUST-SMS/KATH Committee on Human Research, Publications and Ethics. Data analyses were performed with SPSS 17.0 version. Results: Information on 197 patients was completely retrieved for the study. Burns mortality rate for the study was identified to be 21.3% (N=42). The mean age of the 42 dead patients was 3.7±0.3 years, ranging from 0-13 years, while, males (54.8%, N= 23) outnumbered females (45.2%, N=19). The TBSA burned interquartile range was 48%. In terms of etiology of burns Scald (73.8%, N=31) was the commonest cause of injury. Mortality risk factors identified were Age <6 years (P=0.028); Scald especially hot water and soup (P=0.016); TBSA >36% (P=0.028) and Inhalation injury (P=0.040). Conclusion: Age, scald, TBSA and Inhalation Injury were identified as pediatric burns mortality risk factors in a developing country such as Ghana’s RPSBU. These identified factors will serve as a guideline for plastic surgeons and other health professionals practicing in countries such as Ghana. PMID:23875121

Risk factors for carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae bloodstream infection and predictors of mortality in Chinese paediatric patients.

PubMed

Zhang, Ye; Guo, Ling-Yun; Song, Wen-Qi; Wang, Yan; Dong, Fang; Liu, Gang

2018-05-31

Bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKP) are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Early identification of patients at highest risk is very important. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics and mortality of K. pneumoniae BSI and to identify risk factors associated with CRKP BSI among paediatric patients. From January 2011 to December 2014, a retrospective case-control study was conducted at Beijing Children's Hospital, China. Risk factors for CRKP BSI and for K. pneumoniae BSI-related death were evaluated. Patients with BSI caused by K. pneumoniae were identified from the microbiology laboratory database. Data regarding demographic, microbiological and clinical characteristics, therapy and outcome were collected from the medical records. A total of 138 patients with K. pneumoniae BSI were enrolled, including 54 patients with CRKP BSI and 84 patients with carbapenem-susceptible K. pneumoniae (CSKP) BSI. Most of the BSI (114; 82.6%) were healthcare-associated, while the rest (24; 17.4%) were community-acquired. Hematologic malignancies (odds ratio (OR):4.712, [95% CI: 2.181-10.180], P <  0.001) and previous cephalosporin administration (OR: 3.427, [95% CI: 1.513-7.766], P = 0.003) were found to be associated with the development of CRKP BSI. 28-day mortality of K. pneumoniae BSI was 8.7%. Mechanical ventilation (OR:9.502, [95% CI: 2.098-43.033], P = 0.003), septic shock (OR:6.418, [95% CI: 1.342-30.686], P = 0.020), and isolation of CRKP (OR:9.171, [95% CI: 1.546-54.416], P = 0.015) were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of K. pneumoniae BSI. Hematologic malignancies and previous cephalosporin administration were associated with the development of CRKP BSI, while mechanical ventilation, septic shock and CRKP infection were independent mortality predictors for K. pneumoniae BSI. More attention should be paid to CRKP BSI in the paediatric population.

Sleep duration and mortality: The effect of short or long sleep duration on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in working men and women.

PubMed

Heslop, Pauline; Smith, George Davey; Metcalfe, Chris; Macleod, John; Hart, Carole

2002-07-01

There is evidence to suggest that insufficient sleep may have an adverse effect on physical and psychological health. Previous studies have reported that when adjusting for major risk factors for cardiovascular disease and a number of demographic and social variables, sleeping 7-8 h each night is associated with lower mortality. These studies, however, have excluded any consideration of stress, which is known to be related to a number of behavioural risk factors for disease and, like sleep, may influence neurochemical, hormonal and immunological functioning. This study revisits the associations between sleep duration, cardiovascular disease risk factors and mortality, taking into account the perceived stress of individuals. The data come from a cohort of working Scottish men and women recruited between 1970 and 1973; approximately half of the cohort was screened for a second time, 4-7 years after the baseline examination. For both men and women, higher self-perceived stress was associated with a reduction in the hours of sleep reported. The pattern of mortality from all causes and the pattern of mortality from cardiovascular disease were consistent for both men and women. When sleep was measured on one occasion only, the risk of dying was reduced for men sleeping more than 8 h in every 24 h compared with those sleeping 7-8 h over the same period. This was after adjustment had been made for age, marital status, social class, cardiovascular risk factors and stress. The risk of dying was increased for women sleeping less than 7 h in every 24 h compared with those sleeping 7-8 h over the same period, after similar adjustments. When the data from the 1st and 2nd screening were considered longitudinally, both men and women who reported that they slept less than 7 h on both occasions that they were questioned, had a greater risk of dying from any cause than those who had reported sleeping 7-8 h at both screenings, after adjusting for age, marital status, social class and stress. Short sleep over a prolonged period may be associated with an increased risk of mortality: men and women who reported sleeping fewer than 7 h in 24 on two occasions between 4 and 7 years apart, had greater risk of dying from any cause over a 25 year period than those who reported sleeping 7-8 h on both occasions that they were questioned.

Improved 1-year mortality in elderly patients with a hip fracture following integrated orthogeriatric treatment.

PubMed

Folbert, E C; Hegeman, J H; Vermeer, M; Regtuijt, E M; van der Velde, D; Ten Duis, H J; Slaets, J P

2017-01-01

To improve the quality of care and reduce the healthcare costs of elderly patients with a hip fracture, surgeons and geriatricians collaborated intensively due to the special needs of these patients. After treatment at the Centre for Geriatric Traumatology (CvGT), we found a significant decrease in the 1-year mortality rate in frail elderly patients compared to the historical control patients who were treated with standard care. The study aimed to evaluate the effect of an orthogeriatric treatment model on elderly patients with a hip fracture on the 1-year mortality rate and identify associated risk factors. This study included patients, aged 70 years and older, who were admitted with a hip fracture and treated in accordance with the integrated orthogeriatric treatment model of the CvGT at the Hospital Group Twente (ZGT) between April 2008 and October 2013. Data registration was carried out by several disciplines using the clinical pathways of the CvGT database. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for 1-year mortality. The outcome measures for the 850 patients were compared with those of 535 historical control patients who were managed under standard care between October 2002 and March 2008. The analysis demonstrated that the 1-year mortality rate was 23.2 % (n = 197) in the CvGT group compared to 35.1 % (n = 188) in the historical control group (p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for 1-year mortality were male gender (odds ratio (OR) 1.68), increasing age (OR 1.06), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (ASA 3 OR 2.43, ASA 4-5 OR 7.05), higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (CCI 1-2 OR 1.46, CCI 3-4 OR 1.59, CCI 5 OR 2.71), malnutrition (OR 2.01), physical limitations in activities of daily living (OR 2.35), and decreasing Barthel Index (BI) (OR 0.96). After integrated orthogeriatric treatment, a significant decrease was seen in the 1-year mortality rate in the frail elderly patients with a hip fracture compared to the historical control patients who were treated with standard care. The most important risk factors for 1-year mortality were male gender, increasing age, malnutrition, physical limitations, increasing BI, and medical conditions. Awareness of risk factors that affect the 1-year mortality can be useful in optimizing care and outcomes. Orthogeriatric treatment should be standard for elderly patients with hip fractures due to the multidimensional needs of these patients.

Perforated peptic ulcer in southeastern Taiwan.

PubMed

Li, Chin-Hsien; Chang, Wen-Hsiung; Shih, Shou-Chuan; Lin, Shee-Chan; Bair, Ming-Jong

2010-09-01

No studies focus on the population with perforated peptic ulcer in southeastern Taiwan. The present study aimed to assess the differences between the different races and the risk factors related to mortality and morbidity in postoperative patients in southeastern Taiwan. The medical records of 237 patients were reviewed retrospectively. The following factors were analyzed: patient profiles, coexisting illnesses, diagnostic method, fever, preoperative shock, clinical data at emergency room, delay operation, site of perforation, operative method, positive ascites culture, species of microbes in ascites culture, postoperative complications, death and the length of hospital stay. Aborigines were significantly different from non-aborigines in the ratio of female cases and in the habits of alcohol drinking and betel nut chewing. There were also four significantly different variables between them: fever, hemoglobin value, site of perforation and operative method. Total postoperative complication rate was 41.3% and 39 patients (16.6%) died. In multivariate analysis, age > or = 65 years, lipase > upper normal limit and preoperative shock were independent predictors of mortality. Significant risk factors associated with morbidity were NSAIDs use, creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL and preoperative shock. Aborigines were different from non-aborigines in several categories. In southeastern Taiwan, NSAIDs use, creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL and preoperative shock were independent risk factors of morbidity, and age > or = 65 years, lipase > upper normal limit and preoperative shock were independent risk factors of mortality in postoperative perforated peptic ulcer. Lipase > upper normal limit is needed for further research on the influence on mortality.

Cardiovascular health among adults in Syria: a model from developing countries.

PubMed

Maziak, Wasim; Rastam, Samer; Mzayek, Fawaz; Ward, Kenneth D; Eissenberg, Thomas; Keil, Ulrich

2007-09-01

Despite the considerable mortality and morbidity associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), many developing countries lack reliable surveillance of these ailments and their risk factors to guide intervention. This study aims to provide the first population-based estimates of CVD morbidity and mortality among adults in Aleppo, Syria and the distribution of their risk factors. A cross-sectional survey of adults 18 to 65 years old residing in Aleppo, Syria was carried out in 2004, involving 2038 household representatives (45.2% men; mean age, 35.3 years; response rate, 86%). Main outcomes of interest were physician-diagnosed CVD (infarction, angina, failure, stroke) among survey participants, and past 5-year mortality due to CVD among their household members older than 20 years of age (N = 6252, 49.5% men). Measurement of blood pressure (BP), height and weight, and smoking history were obtained as well. Prevalence of CVD was 4.8% for heart disease and 1.0% for stroke. CVD was responsible for 45.0% of overall mortality reported in the past 5 years, whereby 49% of CVD deaths occurred before the age of 65 years. Mean age of death was 62.6 years (63.6 years for heart disease and 61.4 years for stroke). Annual crude death rate due to CVD was 314 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 215-414); of these, 179 were due to heart disease, and 135 due to stroke. More men than women died from heart disease, whereas the opposite was true for stroke. Hypertension was detected in 40.6% (47.7% men, 34.9%women), obesity in 38.2% (28.8% men, 46.4% women), and smoking (cigarettes or waterpipe) in 38.7% (63.6% men, 19.2% women) of participants. Of those surveyed, 39.3% had one CVD risk factor, 27.4% had two risk factors, and 8.3% had 3 risk factors. Main predictors of clustering of risk factors were older age, male gender, and low education. Syria is currently undergoing a stage in which morbidity and mortality from CVD are high but likely to increase based on the population's risk profile. CVD risk distribution in Syrian society highlights the non-generalizability of CVD models from developed societies, and calls for local studies to inform effective interventions and policies.

Cardiovascular health among adults in Syria: a model from developing countries

PubMed Central

Maziak, Wasim; Rastam, Samer; Mzayek, Fawaz; Ward, Kenneth D; Eissenberg, Thomas; Keil, Ulrich

2007-01-01

Background Despite the considerable mortality and morbidity associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) many developing countries lack reliable surveillance of these ailments and their risk factors to guide intervention. This study aims to provide the first population-based estimates of CVD morbidity and mortality among adults in Aleppo-Syria and the distribution of their risk factors. Methods A cross-sectional survey of adults 18-65 years old residing in Aleppo-Syria was carried out in 2004 involving 2038 household representatives (45.2% men, mean age 35.3 years, response rate 86%). Main outcomes of interest were physician-diagnosed CVD (infarction, angina, failure, stroke) among survey participants, and past 5 year mortality due to CVD among their household members > 20 years of age (n=6252, 49.5% men). Measurement of blood pressure (BP), height and weight, and smoking history were obtained as well. Findings Prevalence of CVD was 4.8% for heart disease and 1.0% for stroke. CVD was responsible for 45.0% of overall mortality reported in the past 5 years, whereby 49% of CVD deaths occurred before the age of 65 year. Mean age of death was 62.6 years (63.6 years for HD and 61.4 years for stroke). Annual crude death rate due to CVD was 314 per 100,000 (95%CI: 215-414), of these 179 were due to heart disease, and 135 due to stroke. More men died from heart disease than women, while the opposite was true for stroke. Hypertension was detected in 40.6% (47.7% men, 34.9%women), obesity in 38.2% (28.8% men, 46.4% women), and smoking (cigarettes or waterpipe) in 38.7% (63.6% men, 19.2% women) of participants. Of those surveyed, 39.3% had 1 CVD risk factor, 27.4% had 2 risk factors, and 8.3% had 3 risk factors. Main predictors of clustering of risk factors were older age, male gender, and low education. Conclusions Syria is currently undergoing a stage, where morbidity and mortality from CVD are high but likely to increase based on the population's risk profile. CVD risk distribution in the Syrian society highlights the non-generalizability of CVD models from developed societies, and calls for local studies to inform effective interventions and policies. PMID:17553700

South Asian ethnicity and cardiovascular risk: the known, the unknown, and the paradox.

PubMed

Ahmed, Emad; El-Menyar, Ayman

2015-05-01

South Asians (SAs), in their countries or after migration, are at high risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) and mortality compared to other ethnic groups. It has been shown that >90% of CAD global risk could be attributed to 9 modifiable risk factors (RFs) worldwide. However, these conventional RFs may not fully explain this high risk of CAD among SAs. Therefore, attention has been directed toward nonconventional RFs. In this narrative review, we evaluate the conventional and emerging cardiovascular RFs characterizing SAs. These factors may explain the high morbidity and mortality among SAs. Further prospective studies are urgently needed to set algorithms for the optimal management of these RFs in high-risk populations like SAs. © The Author(s) 2014.

Clinical Features of Non-clostridial Gas Gangrene and Risk Factors for In-hospital Mortality.

PubMed

Takazawa, Kensuke; Otsuka, Hiroyuki; Nakagawa, Yoshihide; Inokuchi, Sadaki

2015-09-20

To examine the clinical features of patients with non-clostridial gas gangrene (NCGG) at our hospital and identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality. This study included 24 patients with NCGG who were hospitalized in our medical facility from April 2005 to March 2015. The clinical features of NCGG were reviewed, and the characteristics of 6 patients who died in hospital and 18 who survived were compared to investigate risk factors. The median time from symptom onset to hospital arrival was 168 h. The causative agent was Klebsiella pneumoniae in 8.3% and mixed infection in 91.7%; 83.3% of patients had diabetes, and one patient had no obvious underlying disease. The site of infection was the neck in 4.2%, the thoracoabdominal wall and retroperitoneum in 12.5% each, the back in 33.3%, the buttocks in 25.0%, the perineum in 20.8%, and the extremities in 45.8%. Retroperitoneal infection, blood lactate ≥ 4.0 mmol/L, and Japanese Association for Acute Medicine disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) score ≥ 4 on emergency department (ED) arrival were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors. NCGG tends to develop in patients with diabetes, and in-hospital mortality rates are still high. Retroperitoneal infection, hyperlactatemia, and DIC on ED arrival are risk factors for in-hospital mortality.

East-West gradient in cardio-vascular mortality in Austria: how much can we explain by following the pattern of risk factors?

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Various studies show major regional differences in the prevalence of cardio-vascular disease morbidity and mortality, both in Europe and within European countries. In Austria, these differences are documented by an East-West gradient with declining morbidity and mortality rates when moving from the East to the West of the country. It was the aim of this study to analyse if, and to what extent, socio-demographic and socio-economic determinants, social resources and health behaviour can contribute to the clarification of this East-West gradient by conducting secondary analyses of an existing Austrian health dataset. Results The data were analysed using bivariate analyses, as well as univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. These analyses revealed significant East-West gradients for various risk factors, as well as socio-demographic and socio-economic health determinants. There was a gradual decrease of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, and psycho-social discomfort in both sexes, with the highest prevalences in those Austrian regions with the highest cardio-vascular mortality and a stepwise decrease to the regions with the lowest cardio-vascular mortality. Controlling for educational level significantly raised the odds for diabetes, hypertension and obesity. In the results of the multivariate analyses, factors that significantly and independently predicted diabetes mellitus were geographic location, psycho-social discomfort, lack of physical exercise, and age in both sexes. For women these factors additionally included a low educational level, lack of social support, and being born abroad. Conclusions Our study shows a clear gradual decline of cardio-vascular mortality and some of its risk factors from East to West in Austria. Concerning these risk factors, the geographic region and psycho-social discomfort showed the greatest association with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and obesity. Hence, they contribute to the explanation of the variance in spatial cardio-vascular disease mortality. Yet, a large proportion of this variance remains unexplained. It would be of great importance to public health and preventive measures to take a closer look at spatial differences in cardio-vascular disease morbidity and mortality to better tailor programmes to the regional environments and settings. Our results also call for a greater importance of preventative measures for psycho-social discomfort and increase of social support. PMID:22082341

Impact of hyperglycemia on outcomes of patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia.

PubMed

Patel, Twisha S; Cottreau, Jessica M; Hirsch, Elizabeth B; Tam, Vincent H

2016-02-01

Bacteremia caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In other bacterial infections, hyperglycemia has been identified as a risk factor for mortality in nondiabetic patients. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of early hyperglycemia on outcomes in diabetic and nondiabetic patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. A retrospective cohort study was performed in adult patients (≥18 years old) with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Patients received at least 1 drug empirically to which the isolate was susceptible in vitro. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to determine the threshold breakpoint for average blood glucose concentration within 48 hours of positive blood culture (BG48). Logistic regression was used to explore independent risk factors for 30-day mortality. A total of 176 bacteremia episodes were identified; patients in 66 episodes were diabetic. Diabetic patients had higher BG48 (165.2±64.8 mg/dL versus 123.7±31.5 mg/dL, P<0.001) and lower 30-day mortality (10.7% versus 22.7%, P=0.046) than nondiabetic patients. Multivariate regression revealed 30-day mortality in nondiabetic patients was associated with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (odds ratio [OR] 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-1.2) and BG48 >168 mg/dL (OR 6.3; 95% CI 1.7-23.3). However, blood glucose concentration was not identified as an independent risk factor for mortality in diabetic patients by multivariate regression analysis. Hyperglycemia did not appear to affect outcomes in diabetic patients, whereas nondiabetic patients had a higher risk of mortality from P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Prospective studies evaluating the impact of glycemic control in these patients are needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality of subjects with mood disorders in the Lundby community cohort: a follow-up over 50 years.

PubMed

Mattisson, C; Bogren, M; Brådvik, L; Horstmann, V

2015-06-01

To compare causes of death and mortality among subjects with and without mood disorder in the Lundby Cohort and to analyse additional mental disorders as risk factors for mortality in subjects with mood disorders. The Lundby study is a longitudinal study that investigated mental health in an unselected population. The study commenced in 1947; the population was further investigated in 1957, 1972, and 1997. Experienced psychiatrists performed semi-structured diagnostic interviews, and best estimate consensus diagnoses of mental disorders were assessed at each field investigation. Subjects with mood disorder (n=508, 195 males, 313 females) were identified until 1997. Causes and dates of death between 1947 and 2011 were obtained from the Swedish cause of death register and were compared between subjects diagnosed with mood disorder and other participants. Mortality was compared between those with mood disorders and the remaining cohort with Cox regression analyses. Other mental disorders were considered as risk factors for death for subjects with mood disorders. The hazard ratio for mortality in mood disorders was HR=1.18. However, the mortality was elevated only for males, HR=1.5. Comorbid anxiety disorders, organic disorders, dementia and psychotic disorders were significant risk factors for death. A total of 6.3% of the participants with mood disorder and 1.2% of the remaining participants committed suicide. As expected, the suicide rate was higher among participants with mood disorders. Only males with mood disorders had elevated mortality. The impact on mortality from other mental disorders seems to vary between the genders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Associations of Spatial Disparities of Alzheimer's Disease Mortality Rates with Soil Selenium and Sulfur Concentrations and Four Common Risk Factors in the United States.

PubMed

Sun, Hongbing

2017-01-01

Associations between environmental factors and spatial disparity of mortality rates of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the US are not well understood. To find associations between 41 trace elements, four common risk factors, and AD mortality rates in the48 contiguous states. Isopleth maps of AD mortality rates of the 48 states and associated factors were examined. Correlations between state average AD mortality rates and concentrations of 41 soil elements, wine consumption, percentage of current smokers, obesity, and diagnosed diabetes of the 48 states between 1999 and 2014 were analyzed. Among 41 elements, soil selenium concentrations have the most significant inverse correlations with AD mortality rates. Rate ratio (RR) of the 6 states with the lowest product of soil selenium and sulfur concentrations is 53% higher than the 6 states with the highest soil selenium sulfur product in the 48 states (RR = 1.53, CI95% 1.51-1.54). Soil tin concentrations have the most significant inverse correlation with AD mortality growth rates between 1999 and 2014, followed by soil sulfur concentrations. Percentages of obesity, diagnosed diabetes, smoking, and wine consumption per capita also correlate significantly with AD mortality growth rates. High soil selenium and sulfur concentrations and wine consumption are associated with low AD mortality rates. Given that average soil selenium and sulfur concentrations are indicators of their intakes from food, water, and air by people in a region, long-term exposure to high soil selenium and sulfur concentrations might be beneficial to AD mortality rate reduction in a region.

Thirty day all-cause mortality in patients with Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England.

PubMed

Abernethy, J K; Johnson, A P; Guy, R; Hinton, N; Sheridan, E A; Hope, R J

2015-03-01

Escherichia coli is the commonest cause of bacteraemia in England, with an incidence of 50.7 cases per 100 000 population in 2011. We undertook a large national study to estimate and identify risk factors for 30-day all-cause mortality in E. coli bacteraemia patients. Records for patients with E. coli bacteraemia reported to the English national mandatory surveillance system between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2012 were linked to death registrations to determine 30-day all-cause mortality. A multivariable regression model was used to identify factors associated with 30-day all-cause mortality. There were 5220 deaths in 28 616 E. coli bacteraemia patients, a mortality rate of 18.2% (95% CI 17.8-18.7%). Three-quarters of deaths occurred within 14 days of specimen collection. Factors independently associated with increased mortality were: age < 1 year or > 44 years; an underlying respiratory or unknown infection focus; ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility; hospital-onset infection or not being admitted; and bacteraemia occurring in the winter. Female gender and a urogenital focus were associated with a reduction in mortality. This is the first national study of mortality among E. coli bacteraemia patients in England. Interventions to reduce mortality need to be multifaceted and include both primary and secondary healthcare providers. Greater awareness of the risk factors for and symptoms of E. coli bacteraemia may prompt earlier diagnosis and treatment. Changes in antimicrobial resistance patterns need to be monitored for their potential impact on infection and mortality. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10 and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality.

PubMed

Pinheiro, Samya de Lara Lins de Araujo; Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento; Schwartz, Joel; Zanobetti, Antonella

2014-12-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.

Causes and risk factors for infant mortality in Nunavut, Canada 1999-2011.

PubMed

Collins, Sorcha A; Surmala, Padma; Osborne, Geraldine; Greenberg, Cheryl; Bathory, Laakkuluk Williamson; Edmunds-Potvin, Sharon; Arbour, Laura

2012-12-12

The northern territory Nunavut has Canada's largest jurisdictional land mass with 33,322 inhabitants, of which 85% self-identify as Inuit. Nunavut has rates of infant mortality, postneonatal mortality and hospitalisation of infants for respiratory infections that greatly exceed those for the rest of Canada. The infant mortality rate in Nunavut is 3 times the national average, and twice that of the neighbouring territory, the Northwest Territories. Nunavut has the largest Inuit population in Canada, a population which has been identified as having high rates of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) and infant deaths due to infections. To determine the causes and potential risk factors of infant mortality in Nunavut, we reviewed all infant deaths (<1 yr) documented by the Nunavut Chief Coroner's Office and the Nunavut Bureau of Statistics (n=117; 1999-2011). Rates were compared to published data for Canada. Sudden death in infancy (SIDS/SUDI; 48%) and infection (21%) were the leading causes of infant death, with rates significantly higher than for Canada (2003-2007). Of SIDS/SUDI cases with information on sleep position (n=42) and bed-sharing (n=47), 29 (69%) were sleeping non-supine and 33 (70%) were bed-sharing. Of those bed-sharing, 23 (70%) had two or more additional risk factors present, usually non-supine sleep position. CPT1A P479L homozygosity, which has been previously associated with infant mortality in Alaska Native and British Columbia First Nations populations, was associated with unexpected infant death (SIDS/SUDI, infection) throughout Nunavut (OR:3.43, 95% CI:1.30-11.47). Unexpected infant deaths comprise the majority of infant deaths in Nunavut. Although the CPT1A P479L variant was associated with unexpected infant death in Nunavut as a whole, the association was less apparent when population stratification was considered. Strategies to promote safe sleep practices and further understand other potential risk factors for infant mortality (P479L variant, respiratory illness) are underway with local partners.

Why choice of metric matters in public health analyses: a case study of the attribution of credit for the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the US and other populations.

PubMed

Gouda, Hebe N; Critchley, Julia; Powles, John; Capewell, Simon

2012-01-28

Reasons for the widespread declines in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in high income countries are controversial. Here we explore how the type of metric chosen for the analyses of these declines affects the answer obtained. The analyses we reviewed were performed using IMPACT, a large Excel based model of the determinants of temporal change in mortality from CHD. Assessments of the decline in CHD mortality in the USA between 1980 and 2000 served as the central case study. Analyses based in the metric of number of deaths prevented attributed about half the decline to treatments (including preventive medications) and half to favourable shifts in risk factors. However, when mortality change was expressed in the metric of life-years-gained, the share attributed to risk factor change rose to 65%. This happened because risk factor changes were modelled as slowing disease progression, such that the hypothetical deaths averted resulted in longer average remaining lifetimes gained than the deaths averted by better treatments. This result was robust to a range of plausible assumptions on the relative effect sizes of changes in treatments and risk factors. Time-based metrics (such as life years) are generally preferable because they direct attention to the changes in the natural history of disease that are produced by changes in key health determinants. The life-years attached to each death averted will also weight deaths in a way that better reflects social preferences.

Risk factors of early and late mortality after thoracic endovascular aortic repair for complicated stanford B acute aortic dissection.

PubMed

Ruan, Zhong-Bao; Zhu, Li; Yin, Yi-Gang; Chen, Ge-Cai

2014-07-01

The risk factors associated with death in complicated Stanford B acute aortic dissection (AAD) after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate the early and late events and mortality of complicated Stanford B AAD associated with TEVAR. Sixty-two patients with complicated Stanford B AAD undergoing TEVAR were included in this study. Primary technical success of TEVAR was achieved in 61 (98.39%) cases. The early mortality rate was 9.68%. Procedural type I endoleak (p = 0.007, OR = 7.71, 95% CI: 1.75-34.01) and cardiac tamponade (p = 0.010, OR = 8.86, 95% CI: 1.70-4 6.14) were the significant predictors of early death in the multivariate model. The late mortality was 16.07%. Cox regression analysis revealed rupture of false lumen (p = 0.001, hazard ratio = 21.96, 95% CI: 3.02-82.12), postoperative myocardial infarction (p = 0.001, hazard ratio = 9.86, 95% CI: 2.12-39.64), and acute renal failure (p = 0.024, hazard ratio = 3.98, 95% CI: 1.26-12.11) to be independent risk factors of late mortality. Type I procedural endoleak and cardiac tamponade were the significant predictors of early death in patients of complicated Stanford B AAD undergoing TEVAR. Rupture of false lumen, postoperative myocardial infarction, and acute renal failure were the independent risk factors for late death after TEVAR. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sleep: important considerations for the prevention of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Grandner, Michael A; Alfonso-Miller, Pamela; Fernandez-Mendoza, Julio; Shetty, Safal; Shenoy, Sundeep; Combs, Daniel

2016-09-01

Sleep plays many roles in maintenance of cardiovascular health. This review summarizes the literature across several areas of sleep and sleep disorders in relation to cardiometabolic disease risk factors. Insufficient sleep duration is prevalent in the population and is associated with weight gain and obesity, inflammation, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and mortality. Insomnia is also highly present and represents an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease, especially when accompanied by short sleep duration. Sleep apnea is a well-characterized risk factor for cardiometabolic disease and cardiovascular mortality. Other issues are relevant as well. For example, sleep disorders in pediatric populations may convey cardiovascular risks. Also, sleep may play an important role in cardiovascular health disparities. Sleep and sleep disorders are implicated in cardiometabolic disease risk. This review addresses these and other issues, concluding with recommendations for research and clinical practice.

Risk factors affecting survival in heart transplant patients.

PubMed

Almenar, L; Cardo, M L; Martínez-Dolz, L; García-Palomar, C; Rueda, J; Zorio, E; Arnau, M A; Osa, A; Palencia, M

2005-11-01

Certain cardiovascular risk factors have been linked to morbidity and mortality in heart transplant (HT) patients. The sum of various risk factors may have a large cumulative negative effect, leading to a substantially worse prognosis and the need to consider whether HT is contraindicated. The objective of this study was to determine whether the risk factors usually available prior to HT result in an excess mortality in our setting that contraindicates transplantation. Consecutive patients who underwent heart transplantation from November 1987 to January 2004 were included. Heart-lung transplants, retransplants, and pediatric transplants were excluded. Of the 384 patients, 89% were men. Mean age was 52 years (range, 12 to 67). Underlying disease included ischemic heart disease (52%), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (36%), valvular disease (8%), and other (4%). Variables considered risk factors were obesity (BMI >25), dyslipidemia, hypertension, prior thoracic surgery, diabetes, and history of ischemic heart disease. Survival curves by number of risk factors using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank for comparison of curves. Overall patient survival at 1, 5, 10, and 13 years was 76%, 68%, 54%, and 47%, respectively. Survival at 10 years, if fewer than two risk factors were present, was 69%; 59% if two or three factors were present; and 37% if more than three associated risk factors were present (P = .04). The presence of certain risk factors in patients undergoing HT resulted in lower survival rates. The combination of various risk factors clearly worsened outcomes. However, we do not believe this should be an absolute contraindication for transplantation.

Birth weight and mortality: causality or confounding?

PubMed

Basso, Olga; Wilcox, Allen J; Weinberg, Clarice R

2006-08-15

The association between birth weight and mortality is among the strongest seen in epidemiology. While preterm delivery causes both small babies and high mortality, it does not explain this association. Fetal growth restriction has also been proposed, although its features are unclear because it lacks a definition independent of weight. If, as some postulate, birth weight is not itself on the causal path to mortality, its relation with mortality would have to be explained by confounding factors that decrease birth weight and increase mortality. In this paper, the authors explore the characteristics such confounders would require in order to achieve the observed association between birth weight and mortality. Through a simple simulation, they found that the observed steep gradient of risk for small babies at term can be produced by a rare condition or conditions (with a total prevalence of 0.5%) having profound effects on both fetal growth (-1.7 standard deviations) and mortality (relative risk = 160). Candidate conditions might include malformations, fetal or placental aneuploidy, infections, or imprinting disorders. If such rare factors underlie the association of birth weight with mortality, it would have broad implications for the study of fetal growth restriction and birth weight, and for the prevention of infant mortality.

The "weekend warrior" and risk of mortality.

PubMed

Lee, I-Min; Sesso, Howard D; Oguma, Yuko; Paffenbarger, Ralph S

2004-10-01

Physical activity improves health, and current recommendations encourage daily exercise. However, little is known about any health benefits associated with infrequent bouts of exercise (e.g., 1-2 episodes/week) that generate the recommended energy expenditure. The authors conducted a prospective cohort study among 8,421 men (mean age, 66 years) in the Harvard Alumni Health Study, without major chronic diseases, who provided details about physical activity on mailed questionnaires in 1988 and 1993. Men were classified as "sedentary" (expending <500 kcal/week), "insufficiently active" (500-999 kcal/week), "weekend warriors" (>/=1,000 kcal/week from sports/recreation 1-2 times/week), or "regularly active" (all others expending >/=1,000 kcal/week). Between 1988 and 1997, 1,234 men died. The multivariate relative risks for mortality among the sedentary, insufficiently active, weekend warriors, and regularly active men were 1.00 (referent), 0.75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62, 0.91), 0.85 (95% CI: 0.65, 1.11), and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.73), respectively. In stratified analysis, among men without major risk factors, weekend warriors had a lower risk of dying, compared with sedentary men (relative risk = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.81). This was not seen among men with at least one major risk factor (corresponding relative risk = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.75, 1.38). These results suggest that regular physical activity generating 1,000 kcal/week or more should be recommended for lowering mortality rates. However, among those with no major risk factors, even 1-2 episodes/week generating 1,000 kcal/week or more can postpone mortality.

Regional Variation in Disparities in Breast Cancer Specific Mortality Due to Race/Ethnicity, Socioeconomic Status, and Urbanization.

PubMed

Parise, Carol A; Caggiano, Vincent

2017-08-01

Disparities in breast cancer mortality due to race/ethnicity, area socioeconomic status (SES), and urbanization have been documented. This study examined if disparities in the risk of breast cancer specific mortality due to race/ethnicity, SES, and urbanization varied within diverse regions of California. We identified 163,569 cases of first primary female invasive breast cancer from the California Cancer Registry diagnosed between January, 2000 and December, 2013. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals for race/ethnicity, SES, and urbanization within eight regions of California. Blacks had an increased risk of mortality in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) (HR = 1.37; 1.22-1.55), Desert Sierra (HR = 1.27; 1.08-1.49), San Diego/Orange (HR = 1.43; 1.19-1.71), and Los Angeles (LA) (HR = 1.31; 1.20-1.44). Japanese (HR = 0.62; 0.47-0.81), Chinese (HR = 0.71; 0.58-0.87), and Filipino (HR = 0.81; 0.69-0.95) women had a decreased risk of mortality in LA. Southeast Asians had a decreased risk in San Diego/Orange (HR = 0.72; 0.57-0.90) and in the SFBA (HR = 0.81; 0.67-0.98). Hispanics had a decreased risk (HR = 0.73; 0.57-0.93) and American Indians had an increased risk (HR = 2.32; 1.08-4.98) in the Tri-County region. SES was a significant risk factor for mortality in all regions except the North and Tri-County. Urbanization was a statistically significant factor for mortality only in LA (HR = 1.32; 1.08-1.60). Disparities in breast cancer mortality, due to race/ethnicity, SES, and urbanization vary by region which suggests that further research is warranted concerning the role of geographic regions and neighborhoods in cancer outcomes.

Healthcare-associated infections among pediatric oncology patients in Pakistan: risk factors and outcome.

PubMed

Siddiqui, Naveed-ur-Rehman; Wali, Rabia; Haque, Anwar-ul; Fadoo, Zehra

2012-05-14

Pediatric oncology patients are at increased risk of contracting healthcare-associated infections (HAIs), which are responsible for increased morbidity and mortality rates as well as treatment costs.  This study aimed to identify the frequency of HAIs among pediatric oncology patients and their outcome. Pediatric oncology patients admitted between January 2009 and June 2010 in a pediatric ward at Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan, who developed HAIs, were analyzed. A total of 90 HAIs were identified in 32 patients in 70 admissions. The HAI rate among pediatric oncology patients was 3.1/100 admission episodes. Bloodstream infections (63 episodes, 90.0%) were the most common, followed by urinary tract infection (two episodes, 2.9%). Gram-positive infections were seen in 54 (60%) patients, followed by Gram-negative infection in 34 (37.8%), and fungi in 2 (2.8%) cases. Coagulase negative staphylococci was the most common Gram-positive and Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were most common Gram-negative infections. Mortality rate among pediatric oncology patients who developed HAIs was 12.5% (4/32). Total parental nutrition use and length of stay longer than 30 days were the identified risk factors associated with increased mortality among pediatric oncology patients who developed HAIs. We report an HAI rate among pediatric oncology patients of 3.1/100 admission episodes with a mortality rate of 12.5% in Pakistan. Further studies should be done, especially in the developing world, to identify the risk factors associated with increased mortality among pediatric oncology patients so that adequate measures can be taken to reduce the mortality among these patients.

Association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and diabetes mortality in the US.

PubMed

Lim, Chris C; Hayes, Richard B; Ahn, Jiyoung; Shao, Yongzhao; Silverman, Debra T; Jones, Rena R; Garcia, Cynthia; Thurston, George D

2018-05-17

Recent mechanistic and epidemiological evidence implicates air pollution as a potential risk factor for diabetes; however, mortality risks have not been evaluated in a large US cohort assessing exposures to multiple pollutants with detailed consideration of personal risk factors for diabetes. We assessed the effects of long-term ambient air pollution exposures on diabetes mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, a cohort of approximately a half million subjects across the contiguous U.S. The cohort, with a follow-up period between 1995 and 2011, was linked to residential census tract estimates for annual mean concentration levels of PM 2.5 , NO 2 , and O 3 . Associations between the air pollutants and the risk of diabetes mortality (N = 3598) were evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for both individual-level and census-level contextual covariates. Diabetes mortality was significantly associated with increasing levels of both PM 2.5 (HR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.03-1.39 per 10 μg/m 3 ) and NO 2 (HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01-1.18 per 10 ppb). The strength of the relationship was robust to alternate exposure assessments and model specifications. We also observed significant effect modification, with elevated mortality risks observed among those with higher BMI and lower levels of fruit consumption. We found that long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and NO 2 , but not O 3 , is related to increased risk of diabetes mortality in the U.S, with attenuation of adverse effects by lower BMI and higher fruit consumption, suggesting that air pollution is involved in the etiology and/or control of diabetes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The ADOPT-LC score: a novel predictive index of in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following surgical procedures, based on a national survey.

PubMed

Sato, Masaya; Tateishi, Ryosuke; Yasunaga, Hideo; Horiguchi, Hiromasa; Matsui, Hiroki; Yoshida, Haruhiko; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Koike, Kazuhiko

2017-03-01

We aimed to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following major surgical procedures using a large sample of patients derived from a Japanese nationwide administrative database. We enrolled 2197 cirrhotic patients who underwent elective (n = 1973) or emergency (n = 224) surgery. We analyzed the risk factors for postoperative mortality and established a scoring system for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients using a split-sample method. In-hospital mortality rates following elective or emergency surgery were 4.7% and 20.5%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, patient age, Child-Pugh (CP) class, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and duration of anesthesia in elective surgery were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. In emergency surgery, CP class and duration of anesthesia were significant factors. Based on multivariate analysis in the training set (n = 987), the Adequate Operative Treatment for Liver Cirrhosis (ADOPT-LC) score that used patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia to predict in-hospital mortality following elective surgery was developed. This scoring system was validated in the testing set (n = 986) and produced an area under the curve of 0.881. We also developed iOS/Android apps to calculate ADOPT-LC scores to allow easy access to the current evidence in daily clinical practice. Patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia were identified as important risk factors for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients. The ADOPT-LC score effectively predicts in-hospital mortality following elective surgery and may assist decisions regarding surgical procedures in cirrhotic patients based on a quantitative risk assessment. © 2016 The Authors Hepatology Research published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Society of Hepatology.

Clozapine, Diabetes Mellitus, Cardiovascular Risk and Mortality: Results of a 21-year Naturalistic Study in Patients with Schizophrenia and Schizoaffective Disorder.

PubMed

Nemani, Katlyn L; Greene, M Claire; Ulloa, Melissa; Vincenzi, Brenda; Copeland, Paul M; Al-Khadari, Sulaiman; Henderson, David C

2017-11-22

The goal of this 21-year naturalistic study of clozapine treated patients was to examine the cardiovascular risk factors following clozapine initiation and resultant mortality estimates from cardiovascular disease. Data was collected from medical records of clozapine treated patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder from January 1992 to February 2012. Demographics, clozapine dosage and laboratory results were extracted at 12-month intervals. At clozapine initiation, the mean age of 96 patients was 36.4 years ±7.6 years; N=27(28%) were women. The mean duration of clozapine use was 13 years. The Kaplan-Meier estimate for 21-year cardiovascular events was 29%, while the Kaplan-Meier estimate for 21-year mortality from cardiovascular disease was 10%. The mean cardiovascular risk increased during the first ten years (p<.01), while a slight decrease occurred beyond ten years (p<.01). Patients involved in cardiometabolic research showed a greater decrease in cardiovascular risk factors over 21 years (p = .05). The Kaplan-Meier estimate for 21-year all-cause mortality was 22%. Forty-one patients were diagnosed with diabetes (42.7%), compared to a nationwide prevalence of 13.7% in a similar age group. These results support the hypothesis that clozapine-treated patients are at risk for cardiovascular events and death secondary to an increased risk of medical disorders. Interventions that target weight loss, smoking cessation, and lipid profile improvement may alleviate the increased risk of cardiovascular mortality.

Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor in TBI-related mortality: Interrelationships between Genetics and Acute Systemic and CNS BDNF Profiles

PubMed Central

Failla, Michelle D.; Conley, Yvette P.; Wagner, Amy K.

2015-01-01

Background Older adults have higher mortality rates after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) compared to younger adults. Brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling is altered in aging and is important to TBI given its role in neuronal survival/plasticity and autonomic function. Following experimental TBI, acute BDNF administration has not been efficacious. Clinically, genetic variation in BDNF (reduced signaling alleles: rs6265, Met-carriers; rs7124442, C-carriers) were protective in acute mortality. Post-acutely, these genotypes carried lower mortality risk in older adults, and greater mortality risk among younger adults. Objective Investigate BDNF levels in mortality/outcome following severe TBI in the context of age and genetic risk. Methods CSF and serum BDNF were assessed prospectively during the first week following severe TBI (n=203), and in controls (n=10). Age, BDNF genotype, and BDNF levels were assessed as mortality/outcome predictors. Results CSF BDNF levels tended to be higher post-TBI (p=0.061) versus controls and were associated with time until death (p=0.042). In contrast, serum BDNF levels were reduced post-TBI versus controls (p<0.0001). Both gene*BDNF serum and gene*age interactions were mortality predictors post-TBI in the same multivariate model. CSF and serum BDNF tended to be negatively correlated post-TBI (p=0.07). Conclusions BDNF levels predicted mortality, in addition to gene*age interactions, suggesting levels capture additional mortality risk. Higher CSF BDNF post-TBI may be detrimental due to injury and age-related increases in pro-apoptotic BDNF target receptors. Negative CSF and serum BDNF correlations post-TBI suggest blood-brain barrier transit alterations. Understanding BDNF signaling in neuronal survival, plasticity, and autonomic function may inform treatment. PMID:25979196

Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in Traumatic Brain Injury-Related Mortality: Interrelationships Between Genetics and Acute Systemic and Central Nervous System BDNF Profiles.

PubMed

Failla, Michelle D; Conley, Yvette P; Wagner, Amy K

2016-01-01

Older adults have higher mortality rates after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) compared to younger adults. Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling is altered in aging and is important to TBI given its role in neuronal survival/plasticity and autonomic function. Following experimental TBI, acute BDNF administration has not been efficacious. Clinically, genetic variation in BDNF (reduced signaling alleles: rs6265, Met-carriers; rs7124442, C-carriers) can be protective against acute mortality. Postacutely, these genotypes carry lower mortality risk in older adults and greater mortality risk among younger adults. Investigate BDNF levels in mortality/outcome following severe TBI in the context of age and genetic risk. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum BDNF were assessed prospectively during the first week following severe TBI (n = 203) and in controls (n = 10). Age, BDNF genotype, and BDNF levels were assessed as mortality/outcome predictors. CSF BDNF levels tended to be higher post-TBI (P = .061) versus controls and were associated with time until death (P = .042). In contrast, serum BDNF levels were reduced post-TBI versus controls (P < .0001). Both gene * BDNF serum and gene * age interactions were mortality predictors post-TBI in the same multivariate model. CSF and serum BDNF tended to be negatively correlated post-TBI (P = .07). BDNF levels predicted mortality, in addition to gene * age interactions, suggesting levels capture additional mortality risk. Higher CSF BDNF post-TBI may be detrimental due to injury and age-related increases in pro-apoptotic BDNF target receptors. Negative CSF and serum BDNF correlations post-TBI suggest blood-brain barrier transit alterations. Understanding BDNF signaling in neuronal survival, plasticity, and autonomic function may inform treatment. © The Author(s) 2015.

Influence of antibiotic-regimens on intensive-care unit-mortality and liver-cirrhosis as risk factor.

PubMed

Friedrich-Rust, Mireen; Wanger, Beate; Heupel, Florian; Filmann, Natalie; Brodt, Reinhard; Kempf, Volkhard Aj; Kessel, Johanna; Wichelhaus, Thomas A; Herrmann, Eva; Zeuzem, Stefan; Bojunga, Joerg

2016-04-28

To assess the rate of infection, appropriateness of antimicrobial-therapy and mortality on intensive care unit (ICU). Special focus was drawn on patients with liver cirrhosis. The study was approved by the local ethical committee. All patients admitted to the Internal Medicine-ICU between April 1, 2007 and December 31, 2009 were included. Data were extracted retrospectively from all patients using patient charts and electronic documentations on infection, microbiological laboratory reports, diagnosis and therapy. Due to the large hepatology department and liver transplantation center, special interest was on the subgroup of patients with liver cirrhosis. The primary statistical-endpoint was the evaluation of the influence of appropriate versus inappropriate antimicrobial-therapy on in-hospital-mortality. Charts of 1979 patients were available. The overall infection-rate was 53%. Multiresistant-bacteria were present in 23% of patients with infection and were associated with increased mortality (P < 0.000001). Patients with infection had significantly increased in-hospital-mortality (34% vs 17%, P < 0.000001). Only 9% of patients with infection received inappropriate initial antimicrobial-therapy, no influence on mortality was observed. Independent risk-factors for in-hospital-mortality were the presence of septic-shock, prior chemotherapy for malignoma and infection with Pseudomonas spp. Infection and mortality-rate among 175 patients with liver-cirrhosis was significantly higher than in patients without liver-cirrhosis. Infection increased mortality 2.24-fold in patients with cirrhosis. Patients with liver cirrhosis were at an increased risk to receive inappropriate initial antimicrobial therapy. The results of the present study report the successful implementation of early-goal-directed therapy. Liver cirrhosis patients are at increased risk of infection, mortality and to receive inappropriate therapy. Increasing burden are multiresistant-bacteria.

Risk factors associated with capture-related death in eastern wild turkey hens

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholson, D.S.; Lochmiller, R.L.; Stewart, M.D.; Masters, R.E.; Leslie, David M.

2000-01-01

Capture-related mortality has been a notable risk in the handling of eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris). Our objective was to evaluate how environmental factors influence risk and identify physiological correlates that could be used to identify susceptible birds. During winter (January-March) 1995-97, 130 eastern wild turkey hens were captured in southeastern Oklahoma and radiocollared. Of those, 20 hens died ??? 14 days of capture. Serum creatine kinase activity (CK; P < 0.01), body temperature (P < 0.01), processing time (P = 0.02), and ambient temperature (P < 0.01) showed a positive relationship with mortality that occurred within 14 days of capture. Plasma corticosterone concentration (P = 0.08) and relative humidity (P < 0.01) showed a negative relationship with mortalities that occurred within 14 days post-capture. Stepwise logistic regression selected CK activity, relative humidity, and ambient temperature as the best predictors of mortality within 14 days post-capture. Our data suggest that susceptible individuals may be identified from CK activity and that capture-related mortality may be minimized by establishing guidelines of when to curtail capture operations based on various weather conditions.

Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular and Diabetes Mortality in South Asia: Analysis From the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

PubMed

Yakoob, Mohammad Y; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Singh, Gitanjali M; Shi, Peilin; Ahsan, Habibul; Balakrishna, Nagalla; Brahmam, Ginnela N V; Chen, Yu; Afshin, Ashkan; Fahimi, Saman; Danaei, Goodarz; Powles, John W; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-12-01

To quantify cardiovascular disease and diabetes deaths attributable to dietary and metabolic risks by country, age, sex, and time in South Asian countries. We used the 2010 Global Burden of Disease national surveys to characterize risk factor levels by age and sex. We derived etiological effects of risk factors-disease endpoints, by age, from meta-analyses. We defined optimal levels. We combined these inputs with cause-specific mortality rates to compute population-attributable fractions as a percentage of total cardiometabolic deaths. Suboptimal diet was the leading cause of cardiometabolic mortality in 4 of 5 countries, with population-attributable fractions from 40.7% (95% uncertainty interval = 37.4, 44.1) in Bangladesh to 56.9% (95% uncertainty interval = 52.4, 61.5) in Pakistan. High systolic blood pressure was the second leading cause, except in Bangladesh, where it superseded suboptimal diet. This was followed in all nations by high fasting plasma glucose, low fruit intake, and low whole grain intake. Other prominent burdens were more variable, such as low intake of vegetables, low omega-3 fats, and high sodium intake in India, Nepal, and Pakistan. Important similarities and differences are evident in cardiometabolic mortality burdens of modifiable dietary and metabolic risks across these countries, informing health policy and program priorities.

Gut Colonization with Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae Adversely Impacts the Outcome in Patients with Hematological Malignancies: Results of A Prospective Surveillance Study.

PubMed

Jaiswal, Sarita Rani; Gupta, Satyanker; Kumar, Rekha Saji; Sherawat, Amit; Rajoreya, Ashok; Dash, Saroj K; Bhagwati, Gitali; Chakrabarti, Suparno

2018-01-01

Gut colonisation with carbapenem-resistant enterobacteriaceae (CRE) is a risk factor for CRE bacteremia and patients with haematological malignancies (HM) are at the highest risk of mortality. We conducted a prospective surveillance study of gut colonisation with CRE and its impact on the outcome of 225 consecutive patients of HM over 28 months. The median age of the cohort was 46 years, the majority with acute leukaemia. 48 (21%) patients were colonised with CRE on admission (CAD). Another 46 patients were colonised with CRE in the hospital (CIH). The risk factors for CAD and CIH were a diagnosis of acute leukaemia and duration of hospital stay respectively. CRE accounted for 77% of infection-related mortality (IRM). The incidence of CRE bacteremia in CRE positive patients was 18% (17/94), and mortality in those with CRE bacteremia was 100%. IRM was 35.3% in CIH group compared to 10.5% in the CAD group (p=0.0001). IRM was highest in those with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and CIH (54.9% p=0.0001). On multivariate analysis, CIH was the most important risk factor for IRM (HR-7.2). Our data demonstrate that a substantial proportion of patients with HM are colonised with CRE without prior hospitalisation, but those with nosocomial colonisation have the highest risk of mortality, particularly in those with AML.

Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and In-Hospital Mortality of Venous Thromboembolism in Liver Cirrhosis: A Single-Center Retrospective Observational Study

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xintong; Qi, Xingshun; De Stefano, Valerio; Hou, Feifei; Ning, Zheng; Zhao, Jiancheng; Peng, Ying; Li, Jing; Deng, Han; Li, Hongyu; Guo, Xiaozhong

2016-01-01

Background Risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), may be increased in liver cirrhosis. We conducted a single-center study to explore the epidemiology, risk factors, and in-hospital mortality of VTE in Chinese patients with liver cirrhosis. Material/Methods All patients with liver cirrhosis who were consecutively admitted to our hospital between January 2011 and December 2013 were retrospectively included. Results Of 2006 patients with liver cirrhosis included, 9 patients were diagnosed with or developed VTE during hospitalization, including 5 patients with a previous history of DVT, 1 patient with either a previous history of DVT or new onset of PE, and 3 patients with new onset of VTE (PE, n=1; DVT, n=2). Risk factors for VTE included a significantly higher proportion of hypertension and significantly higher red blood cells, hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, prothrombin time (PT), international normalized ratio (INR), D-dimer, and Child-Pugh scores. The in-hospital mortality was significantly higher in patients with VTE than those without VTE (33.3% [3/9] versus 3.4% [67/1997], P<0.001). Conclusions VTE was observed in 0.4% of patients with liver cirrhosis during hospitalization and it significantly increased the in-hospital mortality. Elevated PT/INR aggravated the risk of VTE. PMID:27009380

Potency factors for risk assessment at Libby, Montana.

PubMed

Moolgavkar, Suresh H; Turim, Jay; Alexander, Dominik D; Lau, Edmund C; Cushing, Colleen A

2010-08-01

We reanalyzed the Libby vermiculite miners' cohort assembled by Sullivan to estimate potency factors for lung cancer, mesothelioma, nonmalignant respiratory disease (NMRD), and all-cause mortality associated with exposure to Libby fibers. Our principal statistical tool for analyses of lung cancer, NMRD, and total mortality in the cohort was the time-dependent proportional hazards model. For mesothelioma, we used an extension of the Peto formula. For a cumulative exposure to Libby fiber of 100 f/mL-yr, our estimates of relative risk (RR) are as follows: lung cancer, RR = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) =[1.06, 1.17]; NMRD, RR = 1.14, 95% CI =[1.09, 1.18]; total mortality, RR = 1.06, 95% CI =[1.04, 1.08]. These estimates were virtually identical when analyses were restricted to the subcohort of workers who were employed for at least one year. For mesothelioma, our estimate of potency is K(M) = 0.5 x 10(-8), 95% CI =[0.3 x 10(-8), 0.8 x 10(-8)]. Finally, we estimated the mortality ratios standardized against the U.S. population for lung cancer, NMRD, and total mortality and obtained estimates that were in good agreement with those reported by Sullivan. The estimated potency factors form the basis for a quantitative risk assessment at Libby.

Risk factors for contrast-induced nephropathy and their association with mortality in patients with blunt splenic injuries.

PubMed

Hsieh, Ting-Min; Tsai, Tzu-Hsien; Liu, Yueh-Wei; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2016-11-01

Although angioembolization increases the success rate of non-operative management in patients with blunt splenic injuries (BSI), the issue of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) due to serial administration of contrast medium remains unclear. We aimed to examine the risk factors of CIN and their clinical effect on mortality in patients with BSI. We retrospectively studied the complete data on 377 trauma patients with BSI who survived more than 48 h between July 2003 and June 2015. CIN was defined as the relative (≥25%) or absolute (≥0.5 mg/dL) increase in serum creatinine within 48 h after contrast administration. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the independent predictors of CIN and mortality. CIN was independently associated with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m 2 (odds ratio [OR]: 3.25, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-8.76), injury severity score (ISS) ≥ 25 (OR: 6.08, 95% CI: 2.76-13.53), and 24-h hemoglobin (Hb) < 10 g/dL (OR: 3.16, 95% CI: 1.46-6.81). CIN (OR: 19.04, 95% CI: 6.15-58.94) and diabetes (OR: 3.43, 95% CI: 1.04-11.26) were also identified as independent predictors for mortality. In this study, we found that BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 , ISS ≥ 25, and 24-h Hb < 10 g/dL were independent risk factors for the occurrence of CIN in patients with BSI. However, angioembolization was not identified to be an independent risk factor for CIN. In addition, CIN and diabetes mellitus were identified as independent risk factors for mortality in patients with BSI. Copyright © 2016 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifestyle Changes in Young Adulthood and Middle Age and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality: The Doetinchem Cohort Study.

PubMed

Hulsegge, Gerben; Looman, Moniek; Smit, Henriëtte A; Daviglus, Martha L; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Verschuren, W M Monique

2016-01-13

The associations between overall lifestyle profile and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death have been mainly investigated in cross-sectional studies. The full benefits of a healthy lifestyle may therefore be underestimated, and the magnitude of benefits associated with changes in lifestyle remains unclear. We quantified the association of changes in lifestyle profiles over 5 years with risk of CVD and all-cause mortality. Lifestyle factors (ie, diet, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption) and body mass index were assessed and dichotomized as healthy/unhealthy among 5263 adults ages 26 to 66 in 1993-1997 and 5 years later (1998-2002). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to quantify associations of change in lifestyle with fatal/nonfatal CVD and all-cause mortality that occurred 8 to 15 years after 1998-2002. Independent of baseline lifestyles, each decrement in number of healthy lifestyle factors was, on average, associated with 35% higher risk of CVD (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.12-1.63) and 37% higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.10-1.70); no association was noted with increase in the number of healthy lifestyle factors (P>0.5). Individuals who maintained 4 to 5 healthy lifestyle factors had 2.5 times lower risk of CVD (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.25-0.63) and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.22-0.73) than those who maintained only 0 to 1 healthy lifestyle factor. Our findings suggest that the benefits of healthy lifestyles may be easier lost than gained over a 5-year period. This underscores the need for efforts to promote maintenance of healthy lifestyles throughout the life course. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

How Do Social Factors Explain Outcomes in Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer Among Hispanics in California? Explaining the Hispanic Paradox

PubMed Central

Patel, Manali I.; Schupp, Clayton W.; Gomez, Scarlett L.; Chang, Ellen T.; Wakelee, Heather A.

2013-01-01

Purpose Hispanics in the United States have lower age-adjusted mortality resulting from non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) compared with non-Hispanic whites (NHWs). The purpose of this study was to evaluate individual, clinical, and neighborhood factors in survival among Hispanics with NSCLC. Patients and Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of NHWs and Hispanics with NSCLC between 1998 and 2007 in the California Cancer Registry (follow-up to December 2009). Kaplan-Meier curves depict survival by nativity for Hispanics with NSCLC. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard of mortality by race with adjustment for individual (age, sex, marital status), clinical (histologic grade, surgery, irradiation, chemotherapy), and neighborhood factors (neighborhood socioeconomic status, ethnic enclave). Results We included 14,280 Hispanic patients with NSCLC. Foreign-born Hispanics had 15% decreased risk of disease-specific mortality resulting from NSCLC compared with NHWs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.88) after adjustment for individual, clinical, and neighborhood factors. After adjustment for individual factors, compared with US-born Hispanics, foreign-born Hispanics had 10% decreased risk of disease-specific mortality (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.96). Clinical and neighborhood factors slightly moderated the survival benefit for foreign-born patients. A modestly more pronounced survival advantage was seen for foreign-born Hispanics living in low socioeconomic and high Hispanic enclave neighborhoods as compared with US-born Hispanics (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.90). Conclusion Foreign-born Hispanics with NSCLC have a decreased risk of disease-specific mortality compared with NHWs and US-born Hispanics with NSCLC. Neighborhood factors slightly moderate this survival advantage. This survival advantage is slightly more pronounced in lower socioeconomic and higher Hispanic enclave neighborhoods. PMID:23960183

Crohn's disease: increased mortality 10 years after diagnosis in a Europe‐wide population based cohort

PubMed Central

Wolters, F L; Russel, M G; Sijbrandij, J; Schouten, L J; Odes, S; Riis, L; Munkholm, P; Bodini, P; O'Morain, C; Mouzas, I A; Tsianos, E; Vermeire, S; Monteiro, E; Limonard, C; Vatn, M; Fornaciari, G; Pereira, S; Moum, B; Stockbrügger, R W

2006-01-01

Background No previous correlation between phenotype at diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD) and mortality has been performed. We assessed the predictive value of phenotype at diagnosis on overall and disease related mortality in a European cohort of CD patients. Methods Overall and disease related mortality were recorded 10 years after diagnosis in a prospectively assembled, uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of 380 CD patients diagnosed between 1991 and 1993. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for geographic and phenotypic subgroups at diagnosis. Results Thirty seven deaths were observed in the entire cohort whereas 21.5 deaths were expected (SMR 1.85 (95% CI 1.30–2.55)). Mortality risk was significantly increased in both females (SMR 1.93 (95% CI 1.10–3.14)) and males (SMR 1.79 (95% CI 1.11–2.73)). Patients from northern European centres had a significant overall increased mortality risk (SMR 2.04 (95% CI 1.32–3.01)) whereas a tendency towards increased overall mortality risk was also observed in the south (SMR 1.55 (95% CI 0.80–2.70)). Mortality risk was increased in patients with colonic disease location and with inflammatory disease behaviour at diagnosis. Mortality risk was also increased in the age group above 40 years at diagnosis for both total and CD related causes. Excess mortality was mainly due to gastrointestinal causes that were related to CD. Conclusions This European multinational population based study revealed an increased overall mortality risk in CD patients 10 years after diagnosis, and age above 40 years at diagnosis was found to be the sole factor associated with increased mortality risk. PMID:16150857

Crohn's disease: increased mortality 10 years after diagnosis in a Europe-wide population based cohort.

PubMed

Wolters, F L; Russel, M G; Sijbrandij, J; Schouten, L J; Odes, S; Riis, L; Munkholm, P; Bodini, P; O'Morain, C; Mouzas, I A; Tsianos, E; Vermeire, S; Monteiro, E; Limonard, C; Vatn, M; Fornaciari, G; Pereira, S; Moum, B; Stockbrügger, R W

2006-04-01

No previous correlation between phenotype at diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD) and mortality has been performed. We assessed the predictive value of phenotype at diagnosis on overall and disease related mortality in a European cohort of CD patients. Overall and disease related mortality were recorded 10 years after diagnosis in a prospectively assembled, uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of 380 CD patients diagnosed between 1991 and 1993. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for geographic and phenotypic subgroups at diagnosis. Thirty seven deaths were observed in the entire cohort whereas 21.5 deaths were expected (SMR 1.85 (95% CI 1.30-2.55)). Mortality risk was significantly increased in both females (SMR 1.93 (95% CI 1.10-3.14)) and males (SMR 1.79 (95% CI 1.11-2.73)). Patients from northern European centres had a significant overall increased mortality risk (SMR 2.04 (95% CI 1.32-3.01)) whereas a tendency towards increased overall mortality risk was also observed in the south (SMR 1.55 (95% CI 0.80-2.70)). Mortality risk was increased in patients with colonic disease location and with inflammatory disease behaviour at diagnosis. Mortality risk was also increased in the age group above 40 years at diagnosis for both total and CD related causes. Excess mortality was mainly due to gastrointestinal causes that were related to CD. This European multinational population based study revealed an increased overall mortality risk in CD patients 10 years after diagnosis, and age above 40 years at diagnosis was found to be the sole factor associated with increased mortality risk.

Risk factors of treatment failure and 30-day mortality in patients with bacteremia due to MRSA with reduced vancomycin susceptibility.

PubMed

Yang, Chien-Chang; Sy, Cheng-Len; Huang, Yhu-Chering; Shie, Shian-Sen; Shu, Jwu-Ching; Hsieh, Pang-Hsin; Hsiao, Ching-Hsi; Chen, Chih-Jung

2018-05-18

Bacteremia caused by MRSA with reduced vancomycin susceptibility (MRSA-RVS) frequently resulted in treatment failure and mortality. The relation of bacterial factors and unfavorable outcomes remains controversial. We retrospectively reviewed clinical data of patients with bacteremia caused by MRSA with vancomycin MIC = 2 mg/L from 2009 to 2012. The significance of bacterial genotypes, agr function and heterogeneous vancomycin-intermediate S. aureus (hIVSA) phenotype in predicting outcomes were determined after clinical covariates adjustment with multivariate analysis. A total of 147 patients with mean age of 63.5 (±18.1) years were included. Seventy-nine (53.7%) patients failed treatment. Forty-seven (31.9%) patients died within 30 days of onset of MRSA bacteremia. The Charlson index, Pitt bacteremia score and definitive antibiotic regimen were independent factors significantly associated with either treatment failure or mortality. The hVISA phenotype was a potential risk factor predicting treatment failure (adjusted odds ratio 2.420, 95% confidence interval 0.946-6.191, P = 0.0652). No bacterial factors were significantly associated with 30-day mortality. In conclusion, the comorbidities, disease severity and antibiotic regimen remained the most relevant factors predicting treatment failure and 30-day mortality in patients with MRSA-RVS bacteremia. hIVSA phenotype was the only bacterial factor potentially associated with unfavorable outcome in this cohort.

Spatial variability of excess mortality during prolonged dust events in a high-density city: a time-stratified spatial regression approach.

PubMed

Wong, Man Sing; Ho, Hung Chak; Yang, Lin; Shi, Wenzhong; Yang, Jinxin; Chan, Ta-Chien

2017-07-24

Dust events have long been recognized to be associated with a higher mortality risk. However, no study has investigated how prolonged dust events affect the spatial variability of mortality across districts in a downwind city. In this study, we applied a spatial regression approach to estimate the district-level mortality during two extreme dust events in Hong Kong. We compared spatial and non-spatial models to evaluate the ability of each regression to estimate mortality. We also compared prolonged dust events with non-dust events to determine the influences of community factors on mortality across the city. The density of a built environment (estimated by the sky view factor) had positive association with excess mortality in each district, while socioeconomic deprivation contributed by lower income and lower education induced higher mortality impact in each territory planning unit during a prolonged dust event. Based on the model comparison, spatial error modelling with the 1st order of queen contiguity consistently outperformed other models. The high-risk areas with higher increase in mortality were located in an urban high-density environment with higher socioeconomic deprivation. Our model design shows the ability to predict spatial variability of mortality risk during an extreme weather event that is not able to be estimated based on traditional time-series analysis or ecological studies. Our spatial protocol can be used for public health surveillance, sustainable planning and disaster preparation when relevant data are available.

Socioeconomic factors and cervical cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1989-1997.

PubMed

Morales Suarez-Varela, M M; Jiménez-López, M C; Llópis-González, A

2004-01-01

A study was made of cervical cancer (CC) mortality trends in Spain during the period 1989-1997 at National, Autonomous Community and Provincial levels, in relation to different socioeconomic factors. Data were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, INE). The crude mortality rates were age-adjusted using the indirect method and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as socioeconomic status (SES) indicator. National CC age-adjusted mortality rates have increasing slightly, varying from 3.09 deaths/100000 women in 1989 to 3.42 in 1996. The highest age-adjusted mortality rates corresponded to Seville, Palencia and Orense, with 4.13, 4.06 and 3.98 cases/100000 women, respectively. The lowest mortality rates were found in Las Palmas, Cantabria and Alicante with 2.63, 2.77 and 2.80 deaths/100000 women, respectively. A relative risk (RR) of 1.14 (95%CI: 0.98-1.32) ( P=0.048) was observed between the provinces with the lowest SES and highest mortality rate, and those with the highest SES and lowest mortality rate. The results of our study show a slight increasing trend in CC mortality rates in Spain during the period 1989-1997, and suggest that the variations among provinces and Autonomous Communities could be due to CC risk factors (SES related to human papillomavirus, parity, diet, etc.) and differences in early diagnosis.

Mortality and Its Risk Factors in Patients with Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder.

PubMed

Zhou, Junying; Zhang, Jihui; Lam, Siu Ping; Mok, Vincent; Chan, Anne; Li, Shirley Xin; Liu, Yaping; Tang, Xiangdong; Yung, Wing Ho; Wing, Yun Kwok

2016-08-01

To determine the mortality and its risk factors in patients with rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD). A total of 205 consecutive patients with video-polysomnography confirmed RBD (mean age = 66.4 ± 10.0 y, 78.5% males) were recruited. Medical records and death status were systematically reviewed in the computerized records of the health care system. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was used to calculate the risk ratio of mortality in RBD with reference to the general population. Forty-three patients (21.0%) died over a mean follow-up period of 7.1 ± 4.5 y. The SMR was not increased in the overall sample, SMR (95% confidence interval [CI]) = 1.00 (0.73-1.33). However, SMR (95% CI) increased to 1.80 (1.21-2.58) and 1.75 (1.11-2.63) for RBD patients in whom neurodegenerative diseases and dementia, respectively, eventually developed. In the Cox regression model, mortality risk was significantly associated with age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10), living alone (HR = 2.04; 95% CI, 1.39-2.99), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.21-9.46), cancer (HR = 10.09; 95% CI, 2.65-38.42), periodic limb movements during sleep (HR = 3.06; 95% CI, 1.50-6.24), and development of neurodegenerative diseases (HR = 2.84; 95% CI, 1.47-5.45) and dementia (HR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.39-5.08). Patients with RBD have a higher mortality rate than the general population only if neurodegenerative diseases develop. Several risk factors on clinical and sleep aspects are associated with mortality in RBD patients. Our findings underscore the necessity of timely neuroprotective interventions in the early phase of RBD before the development of neurodegenerative diseases. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Perforated peptic ulcer: how to improve outcome?

PubMed

Møller, Morten Hylander; Adamsen, Sven; Wøjdemann, Morten; Møller, Ann Merete

2009-01-01

Despite the introduction of histamine H2-receptor antagonists, proton-pump inhibitors and the discovery of Helicobacter pylori, both the incidence of emergency surgery for perforated peptic ulcer and the mortality rate for patients undergoing surgery for peptic ulcer perforation have increased. This increase has occurred despite improvements in perioperative treatment and monitoring. To improve the outcome of these patients, it is necessary to investigate the reasons behind this high mortality rate. In this review we evaluate the existing evidence in order to identify significant risk factors with an emphasis on risks that are preventable. A systematic review including randomized studies was carried out. There are a limited number of studies of patients with peptic ulcer perforation. Most of these studies are of low evident status. Only a few randomized, controlled trials have been published. The mortality rate and the extent of postoperative complications are fairly high but the reasons for this have not been thoroughly explained, even though a number of risk factors have been identified. Some of these risk factors can be explained by the septic state of the patient on admission. In order to improve the outcome of patients with peptic ulcer perforation, sepsis needs to be factored into the existing knowledge and treatment.

Risk factors predicting mortality in patients with lung abscess in a public tertiary care center in Karachi, Pakistan.

PubMed

Ghazal, Shaista; Kumar, Ashok; Shrestha, Binav; Sajid, Sana; Malik, Maria; Rizvi, Nadeen

2013-01-01

Lung abscess is a commonly encountered entity in South-East Asia but not much data regarding its outcome is available. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with increased mortality in patients diagnosed with lung abscess in a tertiary care center of Karachi, Pakistan. A retrospective case analysis was performed via hospital records, on patients admitted with lung abscess between January 2009 and January 2011 at the largest state-owned tertiary care centre in Karachi, Pakistan. Out of the 41 patients hospitalized, 17 could not survive and were evaluated for clinical, radiological and microbiological factors to determine association with heightened mortality. Mortality due to lung abscess stood at 41.4% (17 of 41 cases). Adult male patients were found to have higher mortality with 13 out of 17 (43%) dead patients being male. A majority (21/41, 51.2%) of the cases belonged to the 41-60 year old age group. Highest mortality was seen in patients<20 years of age (3/4, 75%). Patients with blood sugar levels of >200 mg/dL (56%) succumb to disease. Patients with a positive history of smoking, diabetes mellitus, and alcohol intake expressed mortality rates of 44%, 56%, and 50% respectively; while 29.4% of the mortalities were positive for Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum culture. A significant association was found with elevated mortality and low haemoglobin levels at time of admission; mortality was 58% (p=0.005) in patients with Hb less than or equal to 10 mg/dL. The risk factors involved with heightened mortality included male gender and history of smoking, diabetes and alcohol intake. High blood sugar levels and detection of Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum cultures were also implicated. Anemia (Hb level less than or equal to 10 mg/dl) was statistically significant predictive factor for increased mortality.

Double jeopardy: twin infant mortality in the United States, 1983 and 1984.

PubMed

Fowler, M G; Kleinman, J C; Kiely, J L; Kessel, S S

1991-07-01

The United States Linked Birth/Infant Death Data Sets: 1983 and 1984 Birth Cohorts from the National Center for Health Statistics were used to identify maternal and infant characteristics related to twin infant mortality; 41,554 white and 10,062 black live-born matched twin pairs were evaluated. Twin birth weight distribution was skewed with 48% of white and 63% of black twins born weighing less than 2500 gm. Overall infant mortality rates were 47.1 and 79.3 deaths per 1000 live births for white and black twins, respectively (five times the rates for singletons). Three fourths of deaths were among twins weighing less than 1500 gm. White like-gender twins had about twice the risk of both twins dying compared with unlike-gender twins. Likewise, white twin pairs with greater than 25% birth weight disparity had a 40% to 80% increased risk of both twins dying, compared with twins whose weights were within 10% of each other. Twins born to high-risk women (on the basis of demographic factors) were twice as likely to die as twins born to low-risk women. Thus strategies to decrease twin infant mortality must address both maternal and infant risk factors.

Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review

PubMed Central

Layton, J. Bradley

2010-01-01

Background The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. Objectives This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data Extraction Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Results Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44). Conclusions The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20668659

Mortality differences between black and white men in the USA: contribution of income and other risk factors among men screened for the MRFIT. MRFIT Research Group. Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

PubMed

Davey Smith, G; Neaton, J D; Wentworth, D; Stamler, R; Stamler, J

1998-03-28

Studies of underlying differences in adult mortality between black and white individuals in the USA have been constrained by limitations of data or small study size. We investigated the extent to which differences in socioeconomic position between black and white men contribute to differences in all-cause and cause-specific mortality. 361,662 men were screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial between 1973 and 1975, in 22 sites. Median family income of households by zipcode (postal) area of residence was available for 20,224 black and 300,685 white men as well as data on age, cigarette smoking, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, previous heart attack, and treatment for diabetes. We classified deaths during 16 years of follow-up into specific causes and compared differences in death rates between black men and white men, before and after adjustment for differences in income and other risk factors. Age-adjusted relative risk of death (black vs white) was 1.47 (95% CI 1.42-1.53). Adjustment for diastolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, cigarette smoking, medication for diabetes, and previous admission to hospital for heart attack decreased the relative risk to 1.40 (1.35-1.46). Adjustment for income but not the other risk factors decreased the risk to 1.19 (1.14-1.24) and adjustment for other risk factors did not alter this estimate. For cardiovascular death, relative risk on adjustment for income was decreased from 1.36 to 1.09; for cancer from 1.47 to 1.25; and for non-cardiovascular and non-cancer deaths from 1.71 to 1.26. For some specific causes of death, including prostate cancer, myeloma, and hypertensive heart disease, the higher death rates among black men did not seem to reflect differences in income. Rates of death for suicide and melanoma were lower among black than white men, as were those for coronary heart disease after adjustment for income. Socioeconomic position is the major contributor to differences in death rates between black and white men. Differentials in mortality from some specific causes do not simply reflect differences in income, however, and more detailed investigations are needed of how differences are influenced by environmental exposures, lifetime socioeconomic conditions, lifestyle, racism, and other sociocultural and biological factors.

POSSUM and P-POSSUM for risk assessment in general surgery in the elderly.

PubMed

Igari, Kimihiro; Ochiai, Takanori; Yamazaki, Shigeru

2013-09-01

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) use preoperative and intraoperative factors to evaluate risk. We examined our surgical results to investigate predictive factors for morbidity and mortality, and evaluate the accuracy of the POSSUM and P-POSSUM. Patients (n = 593) aged ≥80 years, undergoing general surgical procedures were enrolled. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent predictors. The predicted outcomes using POSSUM and P-POSSUM were also compared with actual outcomes. Physiological score (PS) and operative severity score (OS) were independent predictors of morbidity and mortality. Using POSSUM, the observed/expected (O/E) morbidity ratio was 1.44 and O/E mortality ratio was 0.98. Using P-POSSUM, the O/E mortality ratio was 1.0. Even though POSSUM tended to underestimate the morbidity rate, POSSUM and P-POSSUM accurately predicted the mortality rate after general surgical procedures.

Lifetime socioeconomic position and mortality: prospective observational study.

PubMed Central

Smith, G. D.; Hart, C.; Blane, D.; Gillis, C.; Hawthorne, V.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To assess the influence of socioeconomic position over a lifetime on risk factors for cardiovascular disease, on morbidity, and on mortality from various causes. DESIGN: Prospective observational study with 21 years of follow up. Social class was determined as manual or non-manual at three stages of participants' lives: from the social class of their father's job, the social class of their first job, and the social class of their job at the time of screening. A cumulative social class indicator was constructed, ranging from non-manual social class at all three stages of life to manual social class at all three stages. SETTING: 27 workplaces in the west of Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 5766 men aged 35-64 at the time of examination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and level of risk factors for cardiovascular disease; morbidity; and mortality from broad causes of death. RESULTS: From non-manual social class locations at all three life stages to manual at all stages there were strong positive trends for blood pressure, body mass index, current cigarette smoking, angina, and bronchitis. Inverse trends were seen for height, cholesterol concentration, lung function, and being an ex-smoker. 1580 men died during follow up. Age adjusted relative death rates in comparison with the men of non-manual social class locations at all three stages of life were 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.56) in men of two non-manual and one manual social class; 1.45 (1.21 to 1.73) in men of two manual and one non-manual social class; and 1.71 (1.46 to 2.01) in men of manual social class at all three stages. Mortality from cardiovascular disease showed a similar graded association with cumulative social class. Mortality from cancer was mainly raised among men of manual social class at all three stages. Adjustment for a wide range of risk factors caused little attenuation in the association of cumulative social class with mortality from all causes and from cardiovascular disease; greater attenuation was seen in the association with mortality from non-cardiovascular, non-cancer disease. Fathers having a manual [corrected] occupation was strongly associated with mortality from cardiovascular disease: relative rate 1.41 (1.15 to 1.72). Participants' social class at the time of screening was more strongly associated than the other social class indicators with mortality from cancer and from non-cardiovascular, non-cancer causes. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic factors acting over the lifetime affect health and risk of premature death. The relative importance of influences at different stages varies for the cause of death. Studies with data on socioeconomic circumstances at only one stage of life are inadequate for fully elucidating the contribution of socioeconomic factors to health and mortality risk. PMID:9055712

How to define severely injured patients? -- an Injury Severity Score (ISS) based approach alone is not sufficient.

PubMed

Paffrath, Thomas; Lefering, Rolf; Flohé, Sascha

2014-10-01

Multiple injured patients, polytrauma or severely injured patients are terms used as synonyms in international literature describing injured patients with a high risk of mortality and cost consuming therapeutic demands. In order to advance the definition of these terms, we analysed a large trauma registry. In detail, we compared critically ill trauma patients first specified on a pure anatomical base according to the ISS or NISS, second in the original "polytrauma definition" with two body regions affected and finally all of them combined with a physiological component. Records that were collected in the TraumaRegister DGU(®) of the German Trauma Society (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie, DGU) between 1993 and 2011 (92,479 patients) were considered for this study. All patients with primary admission from scene with a minimum hospital stay of 48 h and an Injury Severity Score (ISS)≥ 16 were included. Pre-hospital and early admission data were used to determine physiological risk factors and calculate individual risk of death using the Revised Injury Severity Classification (RISC). 45,350 patients met inclusion criteria. The overall hospital mortality rate was 20.4%. The predicted mortality according to the RISC-Score was 21.6%. 36,897 patients (81.4%) had injuries in several body regions. The prevalence of the five physiological risk factors varied between 17% (high age) and 34% (unconsciousness). There were 17,617 patients (38.8%) without any risk factor present on admission, while 30.6% (n=13,890) of the patients had one and 30.5% (n=13,843) had two or more factors present. Patients with ISS ≥ 16 but no physiological risk factor present had a very low mortality rate of 3.1% (542 of 17,617). With an increasing number of physiological factors there was an almost linear increase in mortality up to an 86% rate in patients with all five factors present. The 'polytrauma' definition of Butcher and colleagues with AIS ≥ 3 in at least two different body regions would apply to only 56.2% of patients in the present group with ISS ≥ 16. The mortality in this subgroup is only marginally higher (21.8%; 5559 of 25,494) than in the group of patients with only one severely affected body region (18.5%; 3675 of 19,875). In our opinion the principle of sharpening an anatomically based definition by a defined physiological problem will help to specify the really critically ill trauma patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for competing noncancer mortality after definitive treatment for advanced-stage head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Kim, Yong Han; Roh, Jong-Lyel; Kim, Sung-Bae; Choi, Seung-Ho; Nam, Soon Yuhl; Kim, Sang Yoon

2018-05-27

Patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) can die of index tumor progression and second tumor or noncancer causes. Here, we investigated the risk factors for competing noncancer mortality (NCM) in a prospective cohort of patients with advanced-stage HNC. A prospective observational study was conducted with 604 patients who underwent definitive treatment for advanced-stage HNC between 2010 and 2015. Main outcomes were NCM and cancer mortality (CM) defined as death from noncancer causes and HNC or second cancers, respectively. Cumulative incidence and cause-specific hazard functions were used to analyze the risk factors of NCM and CM. Age, smoking, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), performance status, body mass index, rural residence, education and hemoglobin level at diagnosis, and chemotherapy were significantly associated with NCM (all P<0.05). Multivariate analyses showed that age, CCI, and hemoglobin were independent factors of NCM. Age (≥65 years), CCI (≥2), and hemoglobin (<11 g/dL) were related to 4.5-, 3.2-, and 2.7-fold increased adjusted risk of NCM, respectively. Old age, comorbidity, and hemoglobin at diagnosis were independent predictors of NCM. The risk factors could be used to predict noncancer death after definitive treatment for advanced-stage HNC. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

[An analysis of clinical characteristic and related risk factors in 208 cirrhotic patients complicated with infections].

PubMed

Zhang, G H; Wang, M; Wang, L; Wang, X M; Wang, Y; Ou, X J; Jia, J D

2018-02-01

Objective: To analyze the clinical features and risk factors of cirrhotic patients complicated with infections. Methods: The clinical and laboratory characteristics of cirrhotic patients complicated with infections hospitalized from April 2014 to June 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Relevant risk factors for infection and mortality were explored. Results: The overall incidence of infections was 17.6% in 1 670 hospitalized cirrhotic patients. Among the recruited 208 patients in this study, alcoholic, viral hepatitis B or C and autoimmune liver diseases accounted for 29.8% (62/208), 26.0% (54/208), and 22.1% (46/208), respectively. The most common infection site was respiratory tract (70.2%), followed by urinary tract, intestinal and intra-abdomen. Forty-six pathogens were isolated from 32 patients, including 22 (47.8%) Gram negative bacteria, 16 (34.8%) Gram positive bacteria and 2(4.3%) mycobacterium tuberculosis, 5 (10.9%) fungi and 1 (2.2%) mycoplasma. The mortality in patients with nosocomial infections (16.7%,7/42) was higher than that in patients with community-acquired infections (6.0%,10/166, P =0.025). All 17 deaths occurred in decompensated cirrhosis. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that hepatic encephalopathy and prothrombin time were independent risk factors of mortality. Conclusions: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis are more susceptible to infections. Hepatic encephalopathy and prothrombin time are independent risk factors for death.

[Risk factors for postoperative acute kidney injury in a cohort of 2378 patients from 59 hospitals].

PubMed

Sabaté, S; Gomar, C; Canet, J; Sierra, P; Castillo, J

2011-11-01

To assess risk factors for postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in adults with normal renal function hospitalized for major surgery. To analyze mortality and length of hospital stay in patients who develop postoperative AKI. Data for analysis were drawn from the 2006 ARISCAT study. The dependent variable was postoperative AKI defined as a decline in renal function demonstrated by a rise in plasma creatinine level to twice the baseline measurement or a 50% reduction in the glomerular filtration rate. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify preoperative and intraoperative risk factors. We analyzed 2378 of the ARISCAT cases, which had been enrolled from 59 participating hospitals; 25 patients (1.1%) developed AKI. Analysis identified 5 risk factors: age, peripheral arterial disease, type of surgical incision, blood loss, and infusion of colloids. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88% (95% confidence interval, 0.79%-0.69%). Duration of hospital stay was longer for patients with postoperative AKI (21.8 days, vs 5.5 days for other patients; P=.007). Mortality was higher in patients with AKI at 30 days (36% vs 0.9%) and at 3 months (48% vs 1.7%). The incidence of postoperative AKI was slightly over 1%. Knowledge of postoperative AKI risk factors can facilitate the planning of surgical interventions and anesthesia to reduce subsequent morbidity and mortality and length of hospital stay.

Mortality and its risk factors in Malawian children admitted to hospital with clinical pneumonia, 2001–12: a retrospective observational study

PubMed Central

Lazzerini, Marzia; Seward, Nadine; Lufesi, Norman; Banda, Rosina; Sinyeka, Sophie; Masache, Gibson; Nambiar, Bejoy; Makwenda, Charles; Costello, Anthony; McCollum, Eric D; Colbourn, Tim

2017-01-01

Summary Background Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012. Methods Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi’s Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children’s clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2–11 months of age, and 12–59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models. Findings Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113 154 pneumonia cases, 104 932 (92.7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6.6% (95% CI 6.4–6.7). The case fatality rate significantly decreased between 2001 (15.2% [13.4–17.1]) and 2012 (4.5% [4.1–4.9]; ptrend<0.0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors significantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2–11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11.8%), severe undernutrition (15.4%), severe acute malnutrition (34.8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9.0%). Interpretation Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specific subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of sufficient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of effective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi. PMID:26718810

Preoperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality and validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score and Hardman index in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

PubMed

Kurc, Erol; Sanioglu, Soner; Ozgen, Ayca; Aka, Serap Aykut; Yekeler, Ibrahim

2012-06-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) and Hardman index in patients operated on because of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA), and determining preoperative risk factors that affect in-hospital mortality. One hundred one patients operated on to repair a rAAA within the last 10 years were included. The GAS and Hardman index were calculated for each patient separately. The relation between in-hospital mortality and the Hardman index and GAS was analyzed by means of the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Univariate and multivariate methods of analyses were used to determine preoperative risk factors. Average age was 69 ± 8, and in-hospital mortality rate was 51.5%. Analysis of the ROC curve showed that the Hardman index had an area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.593-0.800, P = 0.0002) for predicting in-hospital mortality. The GAS had an AUC = 0.77 (95% CI, 0.680-0.851, P < 0.0001). The results of multivariate analysis revealed the presence of the following preoperative risk factors: age more than 63 years (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% CI, 1.17-16.49, P = 0.028); loss of consciousness (OR, 9.33; 95% CI, 1.94-44.86, P = 0.005); creatinine higher than 1.7 mg/dL (OR, 5.52; 95% CI, 1.92-15.85, P = 0.001); and pH lower than 7.31 (OR, 3.77; 95% CI, 1.18-11.99, P = 0.024). In conclusion, the Hardman index and GAS have a significant correlation with in-hospital mortality rates. Nevertheless, a high score does not necessarily correspond with a definite mortality. This is why scoring systems could not be considered as the sole criterion for choosing patients for this study. Clinical experience was still the leading factor in deciding against or in favor of surgery.

The Value of Continued Followup in a Preventive Medicine Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Villafana, C.; Mockbee, J.

1970-01-01

Continued monitoring of hypertension and cholesterol levels in NASA employees by regularly scheduled medical examinations prevents an increase in employee disability and cardiovascular mortality rates. Adequate therapeutic control for younger hypertensive employees is demonstrated by records on mortality and heart diseases over a period of 28 months. It confirmed the importance of systolic blood pressure as diagnostic tool for the inherent risk factor. The prevalence of additional coronary risk factors among employees with hypercholesterolemia is considerably less than in employees with hypertension.

Association of dietary nitrate with atherosclerotic vascular disease mortality: a prospective cohort study of older adult women.

PubMed

Blekkenhorst, Lauren C; Bondonno, Catherine P; Lewis, Joshua R; Devine, Amanda; Woodman, Richard J; Croft, Kevin D; Lim, Wai H; Wong, Germaine; Beilin, Lawrence J; Prince, Richard L; Hodgson, Jonathan M

2017-07-01

Background: Nitrate-rich vegetables lower blood pressure and improve endothelial function in humans. It is not known, however, whether increased consumption of nitrate-rich vegetables translates to a lower risk of atherosclerotic vascular disease (ASVD) mortality. Objective: The objective was to investigate the association of nitrate intake from vegetables with ASVD mortality. Design: A total of 1226 Australian women aged 70-85 y without prevalent ASVD and/or diabetes were recruited in 1998 and were studied for 15 y. We assessed demographic and ASVD risk factors at baseline (1998), and we used a validated food-frequency questionnaire to evaluate dietary intake. Nitrate intake from vegetables was calculated by use of a newly developed comprehensive database. The primary outcome was any death attributed to ASVD ascertained by using linked data that were provided via the Western Australian Data Linkage system. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to examine the association between nitrate intake and ASVD mortality before and after adjustment for lifestyle and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Results: During a follow-up period of 15,947 person-years, 238 of 1226 (19.4%) women died of ASVD-related causes. The mean ± SD vegetable nitrate intake was 67.0 ± 29.2 mg/d. Each SD higher vegetable nitrate intake was associated with a lower risk of ASVD mortality in both unadjusted [HR: 0.80 (95% CI: 0.70, 0.92), P = 0.002] and multivariable-adjusted [HR: 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.93), P = 0.004] analyses. This relation was attenuated after further adjustment for diet quality [HR: 0.85 (95% CI: 0.72, 1.01), P = 0.072]. Higher vegetable nitrate intake (per SD) also was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality [multivariable-adjusted HR: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.97), P = 0.011]. Conclusions: Nitrate intake from vegetables was inversely associated with ASVD mortality independent of lifestyle and cardiovascular disease risk factors in this population of older adult women without prevalent ASVD or diabetes. These results support the concept that nitrate-rich vegetables may reduce the risk of age-related ASVD mortality. This trial was registered at www.anzctr.org.au as ACTRN12617000640303. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

[The risk factors for worsening renal function in patients with chronic heart failure].

PubMed

Yang, Xiao-hong; Sun, Zhi-jun; Zheng, Li-qiang; Jia, Yuan-chun; Dong, Ling-ling

2011-07-01

To investigate the risk factors of worsening renal function (WRF) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) and WRF influence on prognosis. A case-control study were undertaken to analyze independent risk factor statistically related to incidence of WRF, and to assess the influence of WRF on prognosis. The independent predictors of WRF were creatinine level at admission (OR 2.248, 95%CI 1.088 - 4.647, P = 0.029) and NYHA class on admission (OR 2.485, 95%CI 1.385 - 4.459, P = 0.002). The mortality of patient with WRF was obviously higher than that of control group during hospitalization (OR 3.824, 95%CI 2.452 - 5.637, P < 0.015). WRF is a common complication among patients hospitalized for CHF, and is obviously associated with mortality during hospitalization. Higher creatinine level and weak heart function are independent risk factors for incidence of WRF of patients with CHF.

Quantifying risk of death and disability associated with raised blood pressure.

PubMed

Elliott, P; Nichols, R; Chee, D

1999-01-01

Raised blood pressure is one of the most important underlying risk factors for morbidity and mortality in the world today, ranking alongside tobacco in estimates of the worldwide attributable burden of mortality. It is a major risk factor for coronary heart disease and the major risk factor for stroke. Taken together, the cardiovascular diseases are estimated to account for some 28% of all deaths in the world. Already many more of such deaths are occurring in the developing than the developed world, and this burden of disease is set to worsen as a result of demographic changes in the poorer countries, together with adoption of Western lifestyle. The development of unfavourable blood pressure patterns in populations is a key factor underlying this worldwide epidemic. Both primary prevention (for example through improved diet) and secondary prevention (through drug treatment and non-pharmacologic approaches) are needed.

Serum peroxiredoxin 4: a marker of oxidative stress associated with mortality in type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-28).

PubMed

Gerrits, Esther G; Alkhalaf, Alaa; Landman, Gijs W D; van Hateren, Kornelis J J; Groenier, Klaas H; Struck, Joachim; Schulte, Janin; Gans, Reinold O B; Bakker, Stephan J L; Kleefstra, Nanne; Bilo, Henk J G

2014-01-01

Oxidative stress plays an underlying pathophysiologic role in the development of diabetes complications. The aim of this study was to investigate peroxiredoxin 4 (Prx4), a proposed novel biomarker of oxidative stress, and its association with and capability as a biomarker in predicting (cardiovascular) mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Prx4 was assessed in baseline serum samples of 1161 type 2 diabetes patients. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the relationship between Prx4 and (cardiovascular) mortality. Risk prediction capabilities of Prx4 for (cardiovascular) mortality were assessed with Harrell's C statistic, the integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement. Mean age was 67 and the median diabetes duration was 4.0 years. After a median follow-up period of 5.8 years, 327 patients died; 137 cardiovascular deaths. Prx4 was associated with (cardiovascular) mortality. The Cox proportional hazard models added the variables: Prx4 (model 1); age and gender (model 2), and BMI, creatinine, smoking, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol-HDL ratio, history of macrovascular complications, and albuminuria (model 3). Hazard ratios (HR) (95% CI) for cardiovascular mortality were 1.93 (1.57 - 2.38), 1.75 (1.39 - 2.20), and 1.63 (1.28 - 2.09) for models 1, 2 and 3, respectively. HR for all-cause mortality were 1.73 (1.50 - 1.99), 1.50 (1.29 - 1.75), and 1.44 (1.23 - 1.67) for models 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Addition of Prx4 to the traditional risk factors slightly improved risk prediction of (cardiovascular) mortality. Prx4 is independently associated with (cardiovascular) mortality in type 2 diabetes patients. After addition of Prx4 to the traditional risk factors, there was a slightly improvement in risk prediction of (cardiovascular) mortality in this patient group.

Fifty-Year Trends in Atrial Fibrillation Prevalence, Incidence, Risk Factors, and Mortality in the Community

PubMed Central

Schnabel, Renate B.; Yin, Xiaoyan; PhilimonGona; Larson, Martin G.; Beiser, Alexa S.; McManus, David D.; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Lubitz, Steven A.; Magnani, Jared W.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; SudhaSeshadri; Wolf, Philip A; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Levy, Daniel

2015-01-01

Summary Background Comprehensive long-term data on atrial fibrillation trends in men and women are scant. Methods We investigated trends in atrial fibrillation incidence, prevalence, and risk factors, and in stroke and mortality following its onset in Framingham Heart Study participants (n=9511) from 1958 to 2007. To accommodate sex differences in atrial fibrillation risk factors and disease manifestations, sex-stratified analyses were performed. Findings During 50 years of observation (202,417 person-years), there were 1,544 new-onset atrial fibrillation cases (46.8% women). We observed about a fourfold increase in the age-adjusted prevalence and more than a tripling in age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation (prevalence 20.4 versus 96.2 per 1000 person-years in men; 13.7 versus 49.4 in women; incidence rates in first versus last decade 3.7 versus 13.4 per 1000 person-years in men; 2.5 versus 8.6 in women, ptrend<0.0001). For atrial fibrillation diagnosed by ECG during routine Framingham examinations, age-adjusted prevalence increased (12.6versus 25.7 per 1000 person-years in men; 8.1 versus 11.8 in women, ptrend<0.0001). The age-adjusted incidence increased, but did not achieve statistical significance. Although the prevalence of most risk factors changed over time, their associated hazards for atrial fibrillation changed little. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models revealed a 73.5% decline in stroke and a 25.4% decline in mortality following atrial fibrillation onset (ptrend=0.0001, ptrend=0.003, respectively). Interpretation Our data suggest that observed trends of increased incidence of atrial fibrillation in the community were partially due to enhanced surveillance. Stroke occurrence and mortality following atrial fibrillation onset declined over the decades, and prevalence increased approximately fourfold. The hazards for atrial fibrillation risk factors remained fairly constant. Our data indicate a need for measures to enhance early detection of atrial fibrillation through increased awareness coupled with targeted screening programs, and risk factor-specific prevention. PMID:25960110

Explanatory Style in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: An Unrecognized Predictor of Mortality

PubMed Central

Crowson, Aaron D.; Colligan, Robert C.; Matteson, Eric L.; Davis, John M.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine whether pessimistic explanatory style altered the risk for and mortality of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Methods The study included subjects from a population-based cohort with incident RA and non-RA comparison cohort who completed the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI). Results Among 148 RA and 135 non-RA subjects, pessimism was associated with development of rheumatoid factor positive (RF+) RA. Pessimism was associated with an increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR]:2.88 with similar magnitude to RF+ (HR:2.28). Conclusion Pessimistic explanatory style was associated with an increased risk of developing RA and increased mortality rate in patients with RA. PMID:28148754

Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

2010-01-01

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

Determinants of the risk of dying of HIV/AIDS in a rural South African community over the period of the decentralised roll-out of antiretroviral therapy: a longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Mee, Paul; Collinson, Mark A.; Madhavan, Sangeetha; Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa; Gómez-Olivé, Francesc Xavier; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen M.; Hargreaves, James; Byass, Peter

2014-01-01

Background Antiretroviral treatment (ART) has significantly reduced HIV mortality in South Africa. The benefits have not been experienced by all groups. Here we investigate the factors associated with these inequities. Design This study was located in a rural South African setting and used data collected from 2007 to 2010, the period when decentralised ART became available. Approximately one-third of the population were of Mozambican origin. There was a pattern of repeated circular migration between urban areas and this community. Survival analysis models were developed to identify demographic, socioeconomic, and spatial risk factors for HIV mortality. Results Among the study population of 105,149 individuals, there were 2,890 deaths. The HIV/TB mortality rate decreased by 27% between 2007–2008 and 2009–2010. For other causes of death, the reduction was 10%. Bivariate analysis found that the HIV/TB mortality risk was lower for: those living within 5 km of the Bhubezi Community Health Centre; women; young adults; in-migrants with a longer period of residence; permanent residents; and members of households owning motorised transport, holding higher socioeconomic positions, and with higher levels of education. Multivariate modelling showed, in addition, that those with South Africa as their country of origin had an increased risk of HIV/TB mortality compared to those with Mozambican origins. For males, those of South African origin, and recent in-migrants, the risk of death associated with HIV/TB was significantly greater than that due to other causes. Conclusions In this community, a combination of factors was associated with an increased risk of dying of HIV/TB over the period of the roll-out of ART. There is evidence for the presence of barriers to successful treatment for particular sub-groups in the population, which must be addressed if the recent improvements in population-level mortality are to be maintained. PMID:25416322

Socioeconomic status (SES) and childhood acute myeloid leukemia (AML) mortality risk: Analysis of SEER data.

PubMed

Knoble, Naomi B; Alderfer, Melissa A; Hossain, Md Jobayer

2016-10-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) is a complex construct of multiple indicators, known to impact cancer outcomes, but has not been adequately examined among pediatric AML patients. This study aimed to identify the patterns of co-occurrence of multiple community-level SES indicators and to explore associations between various patterns of these indicators and pediatric AML mortality risk. A nationally representative US sample of 3651 pediatric AML patients, aged 0-19 years at diagnosis was drawn from 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database registries created between 1973 and 2012. Factor analysis, cluster analysis, stratified univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used. Four SES factors accounting for 87% of the variance in SES indicators were identified: F1) economic/educational disadvantage, less immigration; F2) immigration-related features (foreign-born, language-isolation, crowding), less mobility; F3) housing instability; and, F4) absence of moving. F1 and F3 showed elevated risk of mortality, adjusted hazards ratios (aHR) (95% CI): 1.07(1.02-1.12) and 1.05(1.00-1.10), respectively. Seven SES-defined cluster groups were identified. Cluster 1 (low economic/educational disadvantage, few immigration-related features, and residential-stability) showed the minimum risk of mortality. Compared to Cluster 1, Cluster 3 (high economic/educational disadvantage, high-mobility) and Cluster 6 (moderately-high economic/educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features) exhibited substantially greater risk of mortality, aHR(95% CI)=1.19(1.0-1.4) and 1.23 (1.1-1.5), respectively. Factors of correlated SES-indicators and their pattern-based groups demonstrated differential risks in the pediatric AML mortality indicating the need of special public-health attention in areas with economic-educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validated Competing Event Model for the Stage I-II Endometrial Cancer Population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carmona, Ruben; Gulaya, Sachin; Murphy, James D.

2014-07-15

Purpose/Objectives(s): Early-stage endometrial cancer patients are at higher risk of noncancer mortality than of cancer mortality. Competing event models incorporating comorbidity could help identify women most likely to benefit from treatment intensification. Methods and Materials: 67,397 women with stage I-II endometrioid adenocarcinoma after total hysterectomy diagnosed from 1988 to 2009 were identified in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and linked SEER-Medicare databases. Using demographic and clinical information, including comorbidity, we sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict the incidence of competing mortality. Results: In the validation cohort, increasing competing mortality risk score was associated with increasedmore » risk of noncancer mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio [SDHR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-2.30) and decreased risk of endometrial cancer mortality (SDHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.55-0.78). Controlling for other variables, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) = 1 (SDHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.45-1.82) and CCI >1 (SDHR, 3.31; 95% CI, 2.74-4.01) were associated with increased risk of noncancer mortality. The 10-year cumulative incidences of competing mortality within low-, medium-, and high-risk strata were 27.3% (95% CI, 25.2%-29.4%), 34.6% (95% CI, 32.5%-36.7%), and 50.3% (95% CI, 48.2%-52.6%), respectively. With increasing competing mortality risk score, we observed a significant decline in omega (ω), indicating a diminishing likelihood of benefit from treatment intensification. Conclusion: Comorbidity and other factors influence the risk of competing mortality among patients with early-stage endometrial cancer. Competing event models could improve our ability to identify patients likely to benefit from treatment intensification.« less

Geographic variation of gallbladder cancer mortality and risk factors in Chile: a population-based ecologic study

PubMed Central

Andia, Marcelo E.; Hsing, Ann W.; Andreotti, Gabriella; Ferreccio, Catterina

2010-01-01

Chile’s gallbladder cancer rates are among the highest in the world, being the first cancer killer among Chilean women. To provide insights into the etiology of gallbladder cancer, we conducted an ecologic study examining the geographical variation of gallbladder cancer and several putative risk factors. The relative risk of dying from gallbladder cancer (relative to the national average mortality rate) between 1985 and 2003 was estimated for each of the 333 Chilean counties, using a hierarchical Poisson regression model, adjusting for age, sex, and geographical location. The risk of gallbladder cancer mortality was analyzed in relation to region (costal, inland, northern, and southern), poverty, Amerindian (Mapuche) population, typhoid fever, and access to cholecystectomy, using logistic regression analysis. There were 27,183 gallbladder cancer deaths, age-sex-adjusted county mortality rates ranging from 8.2 to 12.4 per 100,000 inhabitants, being higher in inland and southern regions; compare to the north-coastal, the northern-inland region had a 10-fold risk odds ratio (OR) (95% of confidence interval (95% CI): 2.4–42.2) and the southern-inland region had a 26-fold risk (OR 95%CI: 6.0–114.2). Independent risk factors for gallbladder cancer were: ethnicity (Mapuche) OR:3.9 (95%CI 1.8–8.7), typhoid fever OR:2.9 (95%CI 1.2–6.9), poverty OR:5.1 (95%CI 1.6–15.9), low access to cholecystectomy OR:3.9 (95%CI 1.5–10.1), low access to hospital care OR:14.2 (95%CI 4.2–48.7) and high urbanization OR:8.0 (95%CI 3.4–18.7). Our results suggest that gallbladder cancer in Chile may be related to both genetic factors and poor living conditions. Future analytic studies are needed to further clarify the role of these factors in gallbladder cancer etiology. PMID:18566990

Epidemiology and Long-term Clinical and Biologic Risk Factors for Pneumonia in Community-Dwelling Older Americans

PubMed Central

Alvarez, Karina; Loehr, Laura; Folsom, Aaron R.; Newman, Anne B.; Weissfeld, Lisa A.; Wunderink, Richard G.; Kritchevsky, Stephen B.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.; London, Stephanie J.; Harris, Tamara B.; Bauer, Doug C.; Angus, Derek C.

2013-01-01

Background: Preventing pneumonia requires better understanding of incidence, mortality, and long-term clinical and biologic risk factors, particularly in younger individuals. Methods: This was a cohort study in three population-based cohorts of community-dwelling individuals. A derivation cohort (n = 16,260) was used to determine incidence and survival and develop a risk prediction model. The prediction model was validated in two cohorts (n = 8,495). The primary outcome was 10-year risk of pneumonia hospitalization. Results: The crude and age-adjusted incidences of pneumonia were 6.71 and 9.43 cases/1,000 person-years (10-year risk was 6.15%). The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 16.5% and 31.5%. Although age was the most important risk factor (range of crude incidence rates, 1.69-39.13 cases/1,000 person-years for each 5-year increment from 45-85 years), 38% of pneumonia cases occurred in adults < 65 years of age. The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 12.5% and 25.7% in those < 65 years of age. Although most comorbidities were associated with higher risk of pneumonia, reduced lung function was the most important risk factor (relative risk = 6.61 for severe reduction based on FEV1 by spirometry). A clinical risk prediction model based on age, smoking, and lung function predicted 10-year risk (area under curve [AUC] = 0.77 and Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] C statistic = 0.12). Model discrimination and calibration were similar in the internal validation cohort (AUC = 0.77; HL C statistic, 0.65) but lower in the external validation cohort (AUC = 0.62; HL C statistic, 0.45). The model also calibrated well in blacks and younger adults. C-reactive protein and IL-6 were associated with higher pneumonia risk but did not improve model performance. Conclusions: Pneumonia hospitalization is common and associated with high mortality, even in younger healthy adults. Long-term risk of pneumonia can be predicted in community-dwelling adults with a simple clinical risk prediction model. PMID:23744106

Clinical Features, Short-Term Mortality, and Prognostic Risk Factors of Septic Patients Admitted to Internal Medicine Units

PubMed Central

Mazzone, Antonino; Dentali, Francesco; La Regina, Micaela; Foglia, Emanuela; Gambacorta, Maurizia; Garagiola, Elisabetta; Bonardi, Giorgio; Clerici, Pierangelo; Concia, Ercole; Colombo, Fabrizio; Campanini, Mauro

2016-01-01

Abstract Only a few studies provided data on the clinical history of sepsis within internal Medicine units. The aim of the study was to assess the short-term mortality and to evaluate the prognostic risk factors in a large cohort of septic patients treated in internal medicine units. Thirty-one internal medicine units participated to the study. Within each participating unit, all admitted patients were screened for the presence of sepsis. A total of 533 patients were included; 78 patients (14.6%, 95%CI 11.9, 18.0%) died during hospitalization; mortality rate was 5.5% (95% CI 3.1, 9.6%) in patients with nonsevere sepsis and 20.1% (95%CI 16.2, 28.8%) in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. Severe sepsis or septic shock (OR 4.41, 95%CI 1.93, 10.05), immune system weakening (OR 2.10, 95%CI 1.12, 3.94), active solid cancer (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.16, 3.94), and age (OR 1.03 per year, 95% CI 1.01, 1.06) were significantly associated with an increased mortality risk, whereas blood culture positive for Escherichia coli was significantly associated with a reduced mortality risk (OR 0.46, 95%CI 0.24, 0.88). In-hospital mortality of septic patients treated in internal medicine units appeared similar to the mortality rate obtained in recent studies conducted in the ICU setting. PMID:26825876

Clinical Features, Short-Term Mortality, and Prognostic Risk Factors of Septic Patients Admitted to Internal Medicine Units: Results of an Italian Multicenter Prospective Study.

PubMed

Mazzone, Antonino; Dentali, Francesco; La Regina, Micaela; Foglia, Emanuela; Gambacorta, Maurizia; Garagiola, Elisabetta; Bonardi, Giorgio; Clerici, Pierangelo; Concia, Ercole; Colombo, Fabrizio; Campanini, Mauro

2016-01-01

Only a few studies provided data on the clinical history of sepsis within internal Medicine units. The aim of the study was to assess the short-term mortality and to evaluate the prognostic risk factors in a large cohort of septic patients treated in internal medicine units. Thirty-one internal medicine units participated to the study. Within each participating unit, all admitted patients were screened for the presence of sepsis. A total of 533 patients were included; 78 patients (14.6%, 95%CI 11.9, 18.0%) died during hospitalization; mortality rate was 5.5% (95% CI 3.1, 9.6%) in patients with nonsevere sepsis and 20.1% (95%CI 16.2, 28.8%) in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. Severe sepsis or septic shock (OR 4.41, 95%CI 1.93, 10.05), immune system weakening (OR 2.10, 95%CI 1.12, 3.94), active solid cancer (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.16, 3.94), and age (OR 1.03 per year, 95% CI 1.01, 1.06) were significantly associated with an increased mortality risk, whereas blood culture positive for Escherichia coli was significantly associated with a reduced mortality risk (OR 0.46, 95%CI 0.24, 0.88). In-hospital mortality of septic patients treated in internal medicine units appeared similar to the mortality rate obtained in recent studies conducted in the ICU setting.

Type of employment relationship and mortality: prospective study among Finnish employees in 1984-2000.

PubMed

Nätti, Jouko; Kinnunen, Ulla; Mäkikangas, Anne; Mauno, Saija

2009-04-01

The study investigated the relationship between the type of employment (permanent/temporary) contract and mortality. Factors through which temporary employment was expected to be associated with increased mortality were the degree of satisfaction with the uncertainty related to temporary work situation (Study 1) and the voluntary/involuntary basis for temporary work (Study 2). In Study 1 the data consisted of representative survey on Finnish employees in 1984 (n = 4502), which was merged with register-based follow-up data in Statistics Finland covering years 1985-2000. In Study 2 the data consisted of representative survey on Finnish employees in 1990 (n = 3502) with register-based follow-up data covering years 1991-2000. The relative risk of death was examined by conducting Cox proportional hazards analyses for the permanent and the two temporary employment groups, respectively. In Study 1 temporary employees feeling the insecure situation unsatisfactory had a 1.95-fold higher risk of mortality than permanent employees (95% CI 1.13-3.35) after adjusted for background, health- and work-related factors. In Study 2 employees in the position of having a temporary job on the involuntarily basis had a 2.59-fold higher risk of mortality than permanent employees (95% CI 1.16-5.80). The present study confirmed that temporary employees are not a homogeneous group, which holds true even for mortality. Those temporary employees, who either felt the insecure situation unsatisfactory or who worked in temporary work involuntarily, had higher risk of mortality than permanent employees.

Geographic dimensions of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities.

PubMed

Hondula, David M; Davis, Robert E; Saha, Michael V; Wegner, Carleigh R; Veazey, Lindsay M

2015-04-01

Spatially targeted interventions may help protect the public when extreme heat occurs. Health outcome data are increasingly being used to map intra-urban variability in heat-health risks, but there has been little effort to compare patterns and risk factors between cities. We sought to identify places within large metropolitan areas where the mortality rate is highest on hot summer days and determine if characteristics of high-risk areas are consistent from one city to another. A Poisson regression model was adapted to quantify temperature-mortality relationships at the postal code scale based on 2.1 million records of daily all-cause mortality counts from seven U.S. cities. Multivariate spatial regression models were then used to determine the demographic and environmental variables most closely associated with intra-city variability in risk. Significant mortality increases on extreme heat days were confined to 12-44% of postal codes comprising each city. Places with greater risk had more developed land, young, elderly, and minority residents, and lower income and educational attainment, but the key explanatory variables varied from one city to another. Regression models accounted for 14-34% of the spatial variability in heat-related mortality. The results emphasize the need for public health plans for heat to be locally tailored and not assume that pre-identified vulnerability indicators are universally applicable. As known risk factors accounted for no more than one third of the spatial variability in heat-health outcomes, consideration of health outcome data is important in efforts to identify and protect residents of the places where the heat-related health risks are the highest. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early complications after pneumonectomy: retrospective study of 168 patients.

PubMed

Alloubi, Ihsan; Jougon, Jacques; Delcambre, Frédéric; Baste, Jean Marc; Velly, Jean François

2010-08-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the mortality and risk factors of complications after pneumonectomy for lung cancer. Between 1996 and 2001, we reviewed and analysed the demographic, clinical, functional, and surgical variables of 168 patients to identify risk factors of postoperative complications by univariate and multivariate analyses with Medlog software system. The mean age was 60+/-10 years, overall mortality and morbidity rates were 4.17% and 41.6%, respectively. All frequencies of respiratory complications were 1.2% for acute respiratory failure, 10.1% for pneumonia, 2.4% for acute pulmonary oedema, 4.17% for bronchopleural fistula, 2.4% for thoracic empyema and 18.5% for left recurrent nerve injuries. Postoperative arrhythmias developed in 46% of our patients. The risk factors for cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality with univariate analysis were advanced age (P<0.01), preoperative poor performance status (P<0.015), and chronic artery disease (P<0.008). Factors adversely affecting morbidity with multivariate analysis included age (P=0.0001), associated cardiovascular disease (P=0.001), and altered forced expiratory volume in 1 s (P=0.0005). Complications after pneumonectomy are associated with high mortality. Careful attention must be paid to patients with advanced age and heart disease. Chest physiotherapy is paramount to have uneventful outcomes.

Modeling the sssociation between 25[OH]D and all-cause mortality in a representative US population sample

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Vitamin D has been identified as a potential key risk factor for several chronic diseases and mortality. The association between all-cause mortality and circulating levels of 25-ydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) has been described as non-monotonic with excess mortality at both low and high levels (1). Howev...

Predictors of in-hospital mortality amongst octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgery: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wilson, Iain; Paul Barrett, Michael; Sinha, Ashish; Chan, Shirley

2014-11-01

Elderly patients are often judged to be fit for emergency surgery based on age alone. This study identified risk factors predictive of in-hospital mortality amongst octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgery. A retrospective review of octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgery over 3 years was performed. Parametric survival analysis using Cox multivariate regression model was used to identify risk factors predictive of in-hospital mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval were calculated. Seventy-three patients with a median age of 84 years were identified. Twenty-eight (38%) patients died post-operatively. Multivariate analysis identified ASA grade (ASA 5 HR 23.4 95% CI 2.38-230, p = 0.007) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (HR 3.35 95% CI 1.15-9.69, p = 0.026) to be the only significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. Identification of high risk surgical patients should be based on physiological fitness for surgery rather than chronological age. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Excess mortality in persons with severe mental disorders: a multilevel intervention framework and priorities for clinical practice, policy and research agendas

PubMed Central

Liu, Nancy H.; Daumit, Gail L.; Dua, Tarun; Aquila, Ralph; Charlson, Fiona; Cuijpers, Pim; Druss, Benjamin; Dudek, Kenn; Freeman, Melvyn; Fujii, Chiyo; Gaebel, Wolfgang; Hegerl, Ulrich; Levav, Itzhak; Munk Laursen, Thomas; Ma, Hong; Maj, Mario; Elena Medina‐Mora, Maria; Nordentoft, Merete; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Pratt, Karen; Prince, Martin; Rangaswamy, Thara; Shiers, David; Susser, Ezra; Thornicroft, Graham; Wahlbeck, Kristian; Fekadu Wassie, Abe; Whiteford, Harvey; Saxena, Shekhar

2017-01-01

Excess mortality in persons with severe mental disorders (SMD) is a major public health challenge that warrants action. The number and scope of truly tested interventions in this area remain limited, and strategies for implementation and scaling up of programmes with a strong evidence base are scarce. Furthermore, the majority of available interventions focus on a single or an otherwise limited number of risk factors. Here we present a multilevel model highlighting risk factors for excess mortality in persons with SMD at the individual, health system and socio‐environmental levels. Informed by that model, we describe a comprehensive framework that may be useful for designing, implementing and evaluating interventions and programmes to reduce excess mortality in persons with SMD. This framework includes individual‐focused, health system‐focused, and community level and policy‐focused interventions. Incorporating lessons learned from the multilevel model of risk and the comprehensive intervention framework, we identify priorities for clinical practice, policy and research agendas. PMID:28127922

Trends and disparities in coronary heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases in the United States: findings of the national conference on cardiovascular disease prevention.

PubMed

Cooper, R; Cutler, J; Desvigne-Nickens, P; Fortmann, S P; Friedman, L; Havlik, R; Hogelin, G; Marler, J; McGovern, P; Morosco, G; Mosca, L; Pearson, T; Stamler, J; Stryer, D; Thom, T

2000-12-19

A workshop was held September 27 through 29, 1999, to address issues relating to national trends in mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular diseases; the apparent slowing of declines in mortality from cardiovascular diseases; levels and trends in risk factors for cardiovascular diseases; disparities in cardiovascular diseases by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography; trends in cardiovascular disease preventive and treatment services; and strategies for efforts to reduce cardiovascular diseases overall and to reduce disparities among subpopulations. The conference concluded that coronary heart disease mortality is still declining in the United States as a whole, although perhaps at a slower rate than in the 1980s; that stroke mortality rates have declined little, if at all, since 1990; and that there are striking differences in cardiovascular death rates by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography. Trends in risk factors are consistent with a slowing of the decline in mortality; there has been little recent progress in risk factors such as smoking, physical inactivity, and hypertension control. There are increasing levels of obesity and type 2 diabetes, with major differences among subpopulations. There is considerable activity in population-wide prevention, primary prevention for higher risk people, and secondary prevention, but wide disparities exist among groups on the basis of socioeconomic status and geography, pointing to major gaps in efforts to use available, proven approaches to control cardiovascular diseases. Recommendations for strategies to attain the year 2010 health objectives were made.

Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

PubMed

Carr, Brendan M; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C; Zhu, Wei; Shroyer, A Laurie

2016-01-01

Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Long-term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c-index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one-, three-, and five years, respectively (median follow-up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long-term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Long-term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long-term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher-risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow-up care. More research appears warranted to refine long-term CABG clinical risk models. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

PubMed Central

Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

2015-01-01

Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

EDUCATIONAL DIFFERENTIALS IN U.S. ADULT MORTALITY: AN EXAMINATION OF MEDIATING FACTORS

PubMed Central

Rogers, Richard G.; Hummer, Robert A.; Everett, Bethany G.

2016-01-01

We use human capital theory to develop hypotheses regarding the extent to which the association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality is mediated by such economic and social resources as family income and social support; such health behaviors as inactivity, smoking, and excessive drinking; and such physiological measures as obesity, inflammation, and cardiovascular risk factors. We employ the NHANES Linked Mortality File, a large nationally representative prospective data set that includes an extensive number of factors thought to be important in mediating the education-mortality association. We find that educational differences in mortality for the total population and for specific causes of death are most prominently explained by family income and health behaviors. However, there are age-related differences in the effects of the mediating factors. Higher education enables individuals to effectively coalesce and leverage their diverse and substantial resources to reduce their mortality and increase their longevity. PMID:23347488

Scale-dependence of desease impacts on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality risk in the southwestern U.S.

Treesearch

David M. Bell; John B. Bradford; William K. Lauenroth

2015-01-01

Depending on how disease impacts tree exposure to risk, both the prevalence of disease and disease effects on survival may contribute to patterns of mortality risk across a species’ range. Disease may accelerate tree species’ declines in response to global change factors, such as drought, biotic interactions, such as competition, or functional traits, such as allometry...

Risk Factors for Hip Fracture in Older Men: The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS)

PubMed Central

Cauley, Jane A; Cawthon, Peggy M; Peters, Katherine E; Cummings, Steven R; Ensrud, Kristine E; Bauer, Douglas C; Taylor, Brent C; Shikany, James M; Hoffman, Andrew R; Lane, Nancy E; Kado, Deborah M; Stefanick, Marcia L; Orwoll, Eric S

2017-01-01

Almost 30% of hip fractures occur in men; the mortality, morbidity, and loss of independence after hip fractures are greater in men than in women. To comprehensively evaluate risk factors for hip fracture in older men, we performed a prospective study of 5994 men, primarily white, age 65+ years recruited at six US clinical centers. During a mean of 8.6 years of 97% complete follow-up, 178 men experienced incident hip fractures. Information on risk factors including femoral neck bone mineral density (FNBMD) was obtained at the baseline visit. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals; Fine and Gray models adjusted for competing mortality risk. Older age (≥75 years), low FNBMD, currently smoking, greater height and height loss since age 25 years, history of fracture, use of tricyclic antidepressants, history of myocardial infarction or angina, hyperthyroidism or Parkinson’s disease, lower protein intake, and lower executive function were all associated with an increased hip fracture risk. Further adjustment for competing mortality attenuated HR for smoking, hyperthyroidism, and Parkinson’s disease. The incidence rate of hip fracture per 1000 person-years (PY) was greatest in men with FNBMD T-scores <−2.5 (white women reference database) who also had 4+ risk factors, 33.4. Men age ≥80 years with 3+ major comorbidities experienced hip fracture at rates of 14.52 versus 0.88 per 1000 PY in men age <70 years with zero comorbidities. Older men with low FNBMD, multiple risk factors, and multimorbidity have a high risk of hip fracture. Many of these assessments can easily be incorporated into routine clinical practice and may lead to improved risk stratification. PMID:26988112

Mortality risk factor analysis in colonic perforation: would retroperitoneal contamination increase mortality in colonic perforation?

PubMed

Yoo, Ri Na; Kye, Bong-Hyeon; Kim, Gun; Kim, Hyung Jin; Cho, Hyeon-Min

2017-10-01

Colonic perforation is a lethal condition presenting high morbidity and mortality in spite of urgent surgical treatment. This study investigated the surgical outcome of patients with colonic perforation associated with retroperitoneal contamination. Retrospective analysis was performed for 30 patients diagnosed with colonic perforation caused by either inflammation or ischemia who underwent urgent surgical treatment in our facility from January 2005 to December 2014. Patient characteristics were analyzed to find risk factors correlated with increased postoperative mortality. Using the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) audit system, the mortality and morbidity rates were estimated to verify the surgical outcomes. Patients with retroperitoneal contamination, defined by the presence of retroperitoneal air in the preoperative abdominopelvic CT, were compared to those without retroperitoneal contamination. Eight out of 30 patients (26.7%) with colonic perforation had died after urgent surgical treatment. Factors associated with mortality included age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, and the ischemic cause of colonic perforation. Three out of 6 patients (50%) who presented retroperitoneal contamination were deceased. Although the patients with retroperitoneal contamination did not show significant increase in the mortality rate, they showed significantly higher ASA physical status classification than those without retroperitoneal contamination. The mortality rate predicted from Portsmouth POSSUM was higher in the patients with retroperitoneal contamination. Patients presenting colonic perforation along with retroperitoneal contamination demonstrated severe comorbidity. However, retroperitoneal contamination was not found to be correlated with the mortality rate.

Depressive symptoms and Cardiovascular Mortality in Older African-American and White Adults: Evidence for a Differential Association by Race

PubMed Central

Lewis, Tené T.; Guo, Hongfei; Lunos, Scott; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F.; Skarupski, Kimberly A.; Evans, Denis A.; Everson-Rose, Susan A.

2011-01-01

Background An emerging body of research suggests that depressive symptoms may confer an “accelerated risk” for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in African-Americans, compared with whites. Research in this area has been limited to cardiovascular risk factors and early markers; less is known about black-white differences in associations with important clinical endpoints. Methods The authors examined the association between depressive symptoms and overall CVD mortality, ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality, and stroke mortality in a sample of 6,158 (62% African-American; 61% female) community-dwelling older adults. Cox proportional hazards models were used to model time-to-CVD, IHD and stroke death over follow-up. Results In race-stratified models adjusted for age and sex, elevated depressive symptoms were associated with CVD mortality over follow-up in African-Americans (HR=1.95, 95% CI= 1.61-2.36, p<.001), but were not significantly associated with CVD mortality in whites (HR=1.26, 95% CI=.95-1.68, p=.11; race by depressive symptoms interaction p=.03). Similar findings were observed for IHD mortality (African-American HR=1.99, 95% CI=1.49-2.64, p<.001; white HR=1.28, 95% CI=.86-1.89, p=.23); and stroke mortality (African-American HR=2.08, 95% CI=1.32-3.27, p=.002; white HR=1.32, 95% CI=.69-2.52, p=.40). Findings for total CVD mortality and IHD mortality were attenuated, but remained significant after adjusting for standard risk factors. Findings for stroke were reduced to marginal significance. Conclusions Elevated depressive symptoms were associated with multiple indicators of CVD mortality in older African-Americans, but not whites. Findings were not completely explained by standard risk factors. Efforts aimed at reducing depressive symptoms in African-Americans may ultimately prove beneficial for their cardiovascular health. PMID:21505153

Impact of lifestyle-related factors on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes: the Taichung Diabetes Study.

PubMed

Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Li, Chia-Ing; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Lin, Wen-Yuan; Fuh, Martin Mao-Tsu; Yang, Sing-Yu; Lee, Cheng-Chun; Li, Tsai-Chung

2012-01-01

To examine whether combined lifestyle behaviors have an impact on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in patients aged 30-94 years with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Participants included 5,686 patients >30 years old with T2DM who were enrolled in a Diabetes Care Management Program at a medical center in central Taiwan before 2007. Lifestyle behaviors consisted of smoking, alcohol drinking, physical inactivity, and carbohydrate intake. The main outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between combined lifestyle behaviors and mortality. The mortality rate among men was 24.10 per 1,000 person-years, and that among women was 17.25 per 1,000 person-years. After adjusting for the traditional risk factors, we found that combined lifestyle behavior was independently associated with all-cause mortality and mortality due to diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Patients with three or more points were at a 3.50-fold greater risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI 2.06-5.96) and a 4.94-fold (1.62-15.06), 4.24-fold (1.20-14.95), and 1.31-fold (0.39-4.41) greater risk of diabetes-specific, CVD-specific, and cancer-specific mortality, respectively, compared with patients with zero points. Among these associations, the combined lifestyle behavior was not significantly associated with cancer mortality. Combined lifestyle behavior is a strong predictor of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in patients with T2DM.

The psychosocial effect of thoughts of personal mortality on cardiac risk assessment.

PubMed

Arndt, Jamie; Vess, Matthew; Cox, Cathy R; Goldenberg, Jamie L; Lagle, Stephen

2009-01-01

Prejudice by medical providers has been found to contribute to differential cardiac risk estimates. As such, empirical examinations of psychological factors associated with such biases are warranted. Considerable psychological research implicates concerns with personal mortality in motivating prejudicial biases. The authors sought to examine whether provoking thoughts of mortality among medical students would engender more cautious cardiac risk assessments for a hypothetical Christian than for a Muslim patient. During the spring of 2007, university medical students (N=47) were randomly assigned to conditions in a 2 (mortality salience) x 2 (patient religion) full factorial experimental design. In an online survey, participants answered questions about their mortality or about future uncertainty, inspected emergency room admittance forms for a Muslim or Christian patient complaining of chest pain, and subsequently estimated risk for coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and the combined risk of either of the two. A composite risk index was formed based on the responses (on a scale of 0-100) to each of the 3 cardiac risk questions. Reminders of mortality interacted with patient religion to influence risk assessments, F(1,41)=11.57, P=0.002, eta2 =.22. After being reminded of mortality, participants rendered more serious cardiac risk estimates for a Christian patient (F1,41 =8:66, P=0:01) and less serious estimates for a Muslim patient (F(1,41)=4.08, P=0.05). Reminders of personal mortality can lead to biased patient risk assessment as medical providers use their cultural identification to psychologically manage their awareness of death.

Heart rate variability is a predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease: a report from the CRIC Study.

PubMed

Drawz, Paul E; Babineau, Denise C; Brecklin, Carolyn; He, Jiang; Kallem, Radhakrishna R; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Xie, Dawei; Appleby, Dina; Anderson, Amanda H; Rahman, Mahboob

2013-01-01

Low heart rate variability (HRV) is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in the general population. We aimed to determine the factors associated with HRV and evaluate the association between low HRV and clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). A 10-second electrocardiogram was obtained at baseline in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. HRV was measured by the standard deviation of all R-R intervals (SDNN) and the root mean square of successive differences between R-R intervals (RMSSD). In 3,245 CRIC participants with available baseline SDNN and RMSSD, lower HRV was associated with older age, lack of exercise, heart failure, elevated phosphorus and hemoglobin A1c, and low estimated glomerular filtration rate. After a median follow-up of 4.2 years, in fully adjusted models, lower HRV was not associated with renal [SDNN: hazard rate, HR = 0.96 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.88-1.05); RMSSD: HR = 0.97 (95% CI 0.88-1.07)] or cardiovascular outcomes [SDNN: HR = 1.02 (95% CI 0.92-1.13); RMSSD: HR = 1.00 (95% CI 0.90-1.10)]. There was a nonlinear relationship between RMSSD and all-cause mortality with increased risk with both low and high RMSSD (p = 0.04). In a large cohort of patients with CKD, multiple risk factors for renal and cardiovascular diseases were associated with lower HRV. Lower HRV was not associated with increased risk for renal or cardiovascular outcomes, but both low and high RMSSD were associated with increased risk for all-cause mortality. In conclusion, HRV measured by RMSSD may be a novel and independent risk factor for mortality in CKD patients. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE CONCERNING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OBESITY AND MORTALITY IN THE ELDERLY

PubMed Central

DONINI, L. M.; SAVINA, C.; GENNARO, E.; DE FELICE, M. R.; ROSANO, A.; PANDOLFO, M. M.; BALZO, V. DEL; CANNELLA, C.; RITZ, P.; CHUMLEA, WM. C.

2014-01-01

Introduction Obesity is a risk factor for chronic diseases and premature mortality, but the extent of these associations among the elderly is under debate. The aim of this systematic literature review (SR) is to collate and critically assess the available information of the impact of obesity on mortality in the elderly. Methods In PubMed, there are three-hundred twelve papers on the relationship between obesity and mortality among older adults. These papers were analysed on the basis of their abstracts, and sixteen studies were considered suitable for the purpose of the study. It was possible to perform a pooled estimate for aggregated data in three different studies. Conclusion The results of this SR document that an increased mortality in obese older adults. The limitation of BMI to index obesity and the noted protective action of a moderate increase in BMI on mortality are highlighted. Waist circumference is an indicator of central adiposity and potentially as good a risk factor for mortality as BMI in obese elderly adults. PMID:22238007

Sleep: Important Considerations for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

Grandner, Michael A.; Alfonso-Miller, Pamela; Fernandez-Mendoza, Julio; Shetty, Safal; Shenoy, Sundeep; Combs, Daniel

2016-01-01

Purpose of Review Sleep plays many roles in maintenance of cardiovascular health. This review summarizes the literature across several areas of sleep and sleep disorders in relation to cardiometabolic disease risk factors. Current Findings Insufficient sleep duration is prevalent in the population and is associated with weight gain and obesity, inflammation, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and mortality. Insomnia is also highly present and represents an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease, especially when accompanied by short sleep duration. Sleep apnea is a well-characterized risk factor for cardiometabolic disease and cardiovascular mortality. Other issues are relevant as well. For example, sleep disorders in pediatric populations may convey cardiovascular risks. Also, sleep may play an important role in cardiovascular health disparities. Summary Sleep and sleep disorders are implicated in cardiometabolic disease risk. This review addresses these and other issues, concluding with recommendations for research and clinical practice. PMID:27467177

Predictive Factors of Mortality in Burn Patients

PubMed Central

Fazeli, Shahram; Karami-Matin, Reza; Kakaei, Neda; Pourghorban, Samira; Safari-Faramani, Roya; Safari-Faramani, Bahare

2014-01-01

Background: Burn injuries impose a considerable burden on healthcare systems in Iran. It is among the top ten causes of mortality and a main cause of disability. Objectives: This study aimed to examine factors influencing mortality in burn patients admitted to the main educational tertiary referral hospital in Kermanshah. Patients and Methods: All patients admitted to the Imam Khomeini Hospital (from March 2011 to March 2012), due to thermal burn injuries were included in the study. We applied multiple logistic regressions to identify risk and protective factors of mortality. Also we calculated lethal area fifty percent (LA50), as an aggregate index for hospital quality. Results: During the study period, 540 burn patients were admitted. Male to female ratio was 1.12:1. Twenty three percent of the patients were less than 15 years-old. Median of age was 25 years (Inter Quartile Range, 16 - 37). Overall, probability of death was 25.8%. Lethal area fifty percent (LA50) was 50.82 (CI 95%: 47.76 - 54.48). In the final model, after adjustment of sex, age, total body surface area (TBSA), cause of burn and it’s severity, female gender (P < 0.05), age ≥ 60 years (in comparison with age less than 15 years, P < 0.05) and larger burn size (P < 0.0001) were identified as the main risk factors of death in these patients. Conclusions: Findings showed that the main risk factors of death were female gender, burn size and old age. Directing more attention to these vulnerable patients is required to reduce mortality and improve patient survival. PMID:24719826

Proximal risk factors and suicide methods among suicide completers from national suicide mortality data 2004-2006 in Korea.

PubMed

Im, Jeong-Soo; Choi, Soon Ho; Hong, Duho; Seo, Hwa Jeong; Park, Subin; Hong, Jin Pyo

2011-01-01

This study was conducted to examine differences in proximal risk factors and suicide methods by sex and age in the national suicide mortality data in Korea. Data were collected from the National Police Agency and the National Statistical Office of Korea on suicide completers from 2004 to 2006. The 31,711 suicide case records were used to analyze suicide rates, methods, and proximal risk factors by sex and age. Suicide rate increased with age, especially in men. The most common proximal risk factor for suicide was medical illness in both sexes. The most common proximal risk factor for subjects younger than 30 years was found to be a conflict in relationships with family members, partner, or friends. Medical illness was found to increase in prevalence as a risk factor with age. Hanging/Suffocation was the most common suicide method used by both sexes. The use of drug/pesticide poisoning to suicide increased with age. A fall from height or hanging/suffocation was more popular in the younger age groups. Because proximal risk factors and suicide methods varied with sex and age, different suicide prevention measures are required after consideration of both of these parameters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends and risk factors of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Eastern Uganda (1982-2011): a cross-sectional, population-based study.

PubMed

Kujala, Sanni; Waiswa, Peter; Kadobera, Daniel; Akuze, Joseph; Pariyo, George; Hanson, Claudia

2017-01-01

To identify mortality trends and risk factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths 1982-2011. Population-based cross-sectional study based on reported pregnancy history in Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Uganda. A pregnancy history survey was conducted among women aged 15-49 years living in the HDSS during May-July 2011 (n = 10 540). Time trends were analysed with cubic splines and linear regression. Potential risk factors were examined with multilevel logistic regression with adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). 34 073 births from 1982 to 2011 were analysed. The annual rate of decrease was 0.9% for stillbirths and 1.8% for neonatal mortality. Stillbirths were associated with several risk factors: multiple births (AOR 2.57, CI 1.66-3.99), previous adverse outcome (AOR 6.16, CI 4.26-8.88) and grand multiparity among 35- to 49-year-olds (AOR 1.97, CI 1.32-2.89). Neonatal deaths were associated with multiple births (AOR 6.16, CI 4.80-7.92) and advanced maternal age linked with parity of 1-4 (AOR 2.34, CI 1.28-4.25) and grand multiparity (AOR 1.44, CI 1.09-1.90). Education, marital status and household wealth were not associated with the outcomes. The slow decline in mortality rates and easily identifiable risk factors calls for improving quality of care at birth and a rethinking of how to address obstetric risks, potentially a revival of the risk approach in antenatal care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[HIV/AIDS related mortality in southern Shanxi province and its risk factors].

PubMed

Ning, Shaoping; Xue, Zidong; Wei, Jun; Mu, Shengcai; Xu, Yajuan; Jia, Shaoxian; Qiu, Chao; Xu, Jianqing

2015-03-01

To explore factors influencing mortality rate of HIV/AIDS and to improve the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART). By means of retrospective cohort study and the AIDS control information system, HIV/AIDS case reports and antiviral treatment information of 4 cities in southern Shanxi province up to end of December 2012 were selected, to calculate the mortality rate and treatment coverage based on further data collected, along with analysis using the Cox proportional hazards survival regression. 4 040 cases confirmed of HIV/AIDS were included in this study. The average age was (36.0 ± 12.9) years, with 65.3% being male, 56.5% being married, 73.5% having junior high school education or lower, 58.4% being peasants, 54.3% with sexually transmitted infection (40.1% were heterosexual, 14.2% were homosexual), and 38.9% were infected via blood transmission (20.2% were former plasma donors, 16.2% blood transfusion or products recipients, 2.4% were injection drug users). Overall mortality decreased from 40.2 per 100 person/year in 2004 to 6.3 per 100 person/year in 2012, with treatment coverage concomitantly increasing from almost 14.8% to 63.4%. Cox proportional hazards survival regression was used on 4 040 qualified cases, demonstrating the top mortality risk factor was without antiretroviral therapy (RR = 14.9, 95% CI: 12.7-17.4). Cox proportional hazards survival regression was made on 1 938 cases of antiviral treatment, demonstrating that the mortality risk of underweight or obese before treatment was higher than those of normal and overweight cases (RR = 2.7, 95% CI: 1.6-4.5), and the mortality of those having a CD4(+) T-lymphocyte count ≤ 50 cells per µl before treatment was more than 50 cases (RR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.5-4.5); Cox proportional hazards survival regression was made on 2 102 cases of untreated cases, demonstrating the mortality risk of those initially diagnosed as AIDS was higher than those initially diagnosed as HIV (RR = 3.4, 95% CI: 2.9-4.0). The ART could successfully make lower HIV/AIDS mortality rate, indicating effective ART can further decrease mortality.

Global Inequalities in Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality are Linked to Deprivation, Low Socioeconomic Status, and Human Development

PubMed Central

Singh, Gopal K.; Azuine, Romuladus E.; Siahpush, Mohammad

2012-01-01

Objectives This study examined global inequalities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates as a function of cross-national variations in the Human Development Index (HDI), socioeconomic factors, Gender Inequality Index (GII), and healthcare expenditure. Methods Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were calculated for women in 184 countries using the 2008 GLOBOCAN database, and incidence and mortality trends were analyzed using the WHO cancer mortality database. Log-linear regression was used to model annual trends, while OLS and Poisson regression models were used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic and human development factors on incidence and mortality rates. Results Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates varied widely, with many African countries such as Guinea, Zambia, Comoros, Tanzania, and Malawi having at least 10-to-20-fold higher rates than several West Asian, Middle East, and European countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Switzerland. HDI, GII, poverty rate, health expenditure per capita, urbanization, and literacy rate were all significantly related to cervical cancer incidence and mortality, with HDI and poverty rate each explaining >52% of the global variance in mortality. Both incidence and mortality rates increased in relation to lower human development and higher gender inequality levels. A 0.2 unit increase in HDI was associated with a 20% decrease in cervical cancer risk and a 33% decrease in cervical cancer mortality risk. The risk of a cervical cancer diagnosis increased by 24% and of cervical cancer death by 42% for a 0.2 unit increase in GII. Higher health expenditure levels were independently associated with decreased incidence and mortality risks. Conclusions and Public Health Implications Global inequalities in cervical cancer are clearly linked to disparities in human development, social inequality, and living standards. Reductions in cervical cancer rates are achievable by reducing inequalities in socioeconomic conditions, availability of preventive health services, and women’s social status. PMID:27621956

Global Inequalities in Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality are Linked to Deprivation, Low Socioeconomic Status, and Human Development.

PubMed

Singh, Gopal K; Azuine, Romuladus E; Siahpush, Mohammad

2012-01-01

This study examined global inequalities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates as a function of cross-national variations in the Human Development Index (HDI), socioeconomic factors, Gender Inequality Index (GII), and healthcare expenditure. Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were calculated for women in 184 countries using the 2008 GLOBOCAN database, and incidence and mortality trends were analyzed using the WHO cancer mortality database. Log-linear regression was used to model annual trends, while OLS and Poisson regression models were used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic and human development factors on incidence and mortality rates. Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates varied widely, with many African countries such as Guinea, Zambia, Comoros, Tanzania, and Malawi having at least 10-to-20-fold higher rates than several West Asian, Middle East, and European countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Switzerland. HDI, GII, poverty rate, health expenditure per capita, urbanization, and literacy rate were all significantly related to cervical cancer incidence and mortality, with HDI and poverty rate each explaining >52% of the global variance in mortality. Both incidence and mortality rates increased in relation to lower human development and higher gender inequality levels. A 0.2 unit increase in HDI was associated with a 20% decrease in cervical cancer risk and a 33% decrease in cervical cancer mortality risk. The risk of a cervical cancer diagnosis increased by 24% and of cervical cancer death by 42% for a 0.2 unit increase in GII. Higher health expenditure levels were independently associated with decreased incidence and mortality risks. Global inequalities in cervical cancer are clearly linked to disparities in human development, social inequality, and living standards. Reductions in cervical cancer rates are achievable by reducing inequalities in socioeconomic conditions, availability of preventive health services, and women's social status.

Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, S. B.; Nealy, J. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Chatterjee, A. (Principal Investigator)

1995-01-01

Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earth's magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

Causes of Death in Men With Prevalent Diabetes and Newly Diagnosed High- Versus Favorable-Risk Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D'Amico, Anthony V., E-mail: adamico@partners.or; Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J.

2010-08-01

Purpose: To determine whether prevalent diabetes mellitus (pDM) affects the presentation, extent of radiotherapy, or prostate cancer (PCa)-specific mortality (PCSM) and whether PCa aggressiveness affects the risk of non-PCSM, DM-related mortality, and all-cause mortality in men with pDM. Methods: Between October 1997 and July 2907, 5,279 men treated at the Chicago Prostate Cancer Center with radiotherapy for PCa were included in the study. Logistic and competing risk regression analyses were performed to assess whether pDM was associated with high-grade PCa, less aggressive radiotherapy, and an increased risk of PCSM. Competing risks and Cox regression analyses were performed to assess whethermore » PCa aggressiveness described by risk group in men with pDM was associated with the risk of non-PCSM, DM-related mortality, and all-cause mortality. Analyses were adjusted for predictors of high-grade PCa and factors that could affect treatment extent and mortality. Results: Men with pDM were more likely (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.7; p = .002) to present with high-grade PCa but were not treated less aggressively (p = .33) and did not have an increased risk of PCSM (p = .58) compared to men without pDM. Among the men with pDM, high-risk PCa was associated with a greater risk of non-PCSM (AHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.5; p = .035), DM-related mortality (AHR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.0-14.0; p = .001), and all-cause mortality (AHR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.7; p = .01) compared to favorable-risk PCa. Conclusion: Aggressive management of pDM is warranted in men with high-risk PCa.« less

Socioeconomic Status, Marital Status Continuity and Change, Marital Conflict, and Mortality

PubMed Central

Choi, Heejeong; Marks, Nadine F.

2010-01-01

Objectives We investigated (1) whether being continuously married compared to other marital status trajectories over 5 years attenuates the adverse effects of lower education and lower income on longevity, (2) whether being in higher-conflict as well as lower-conflict marriage compared to being single provides a buffer against SES inequalities in mortality, and (3) whether the conditional effects of marital factors on the SES-mortality association vary by gender. Method We estimated logistic regression models with data from adults aged 30 or older who participated in the National Survey of Families and Households 1987–2002. Results Being continuously married, compared to being continuously never married or making a transition to separation/divorce, buffered mortality risks among men with low income. Mortality risk for low income men was also lower in higher-conflict marriages compared to being never married or previously married. Discussion Marriage ameliorates mortality risks for some low income men. PMID:21273502

Socioeconomic status, marital status continuity and change, marital conflict, and mortality.

PubMed

Choi, Heejeong; Marks, Nadine F

2011-06-01

The authors investigated (a) whether being continuously married compared with other marital status trajectories over 5 years attenuates the adverse effects of lower education and lower income on longevity, (b) whether being in higher conflict as well as lower conflict marriage compared with being single provides a buffer against socioeconomic status inequalities in mortality, and (c) whether the conditional effects of marital factors on the SES-mortality association vary by gender. The authors estimated logistic regression models with data from adults aged 30 or above who participated in the National Survey of Families and Households 1987- 2002. Being continuously married, compared with being continuously never married or making a transition to separation/divorce, buffered mortality risks among men with low income. Mortality risk for low-income men was also lower in higher conflict marriages compared with being never married or previously married. Marriage ameliorates mortality risks for some low-income men.

Risk and prognostic factors of ventilator-associated pneumonia in trauma patients.

PubMed

Cavalcanti, Manuela; Ferrer, Miquel; Ferrer, Ricard; Morforte, Ramon; Garnacho, Angel; Torres, Antoni

2006-04-01

To assess the risk and prognostic factors of ventilator-associated pneumonia in trauma patients, with an emphasis on the inflammatory response. Case-control study. Trauma intensive care unit. Of 190 consecutive mechanically ventilated patients, those with microbiologically confirmed pneumonia (n = 62) were matched with 62 controls without pneumonia. None. Clinical, microbiological, and outcome variables were recorded. Cytokines were measured in serum and blind bronchoalveolar lavage specimens at onset of pneumonia. Multivariate analyses of risk and prognostic factors for ventilator-associated pneumonia were done. Increased severity of head and neck injury (odds ratio, 11.9; p < .001) was the only independent predictor of pneumonia. Among patients with pneumonia, serum levels of interleukin-6 (p = .019) and interleukin-8 (p = .036) at onset of pneumonia were higher in nonresponders to treatment. Moreover, serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (p = .028) and interleukin-6 (p = .007) at onset of pneumonia were higher in nonsurvivors. Mortality in the intensive care unit was 23% in cases and controls. Nonresponse to antimicrobial treatment (odds ratio, 22.2; p = .001) and the use of hyperventilation (p = .021) were independent predictors of mortality in the intensive care unit for patients with pneumonia. Severe head and neck trauma is strongly associated with ventilator-associated pneumonia. A higher inflammatory response is associated with nonresponse to treatment and mortality among patients with pneumonia. Although pneumonia did not influence mortality, nonresponse to treatment independently predicted mortality among these patients.

Cognition and mortality in older people: the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study.

PubMed

Connors, Michael H; Sachdev, Perminder S; Kochan, Nicole A; Xu, Jing; Draper, Brian; Brodaty, Henry

2015-11-01

Both cognitive ability and cognitive decline have been shown to predict mortality in older people. As dementia, a major form of cognitive decline, has an established association with shorter survival, it is unclear the extent to which cognitive ability and cognitive decline predict mortality in the absence of dementia. To determine whether cognitive ability and decline in cognitive ability predict mortality in older individuals without dementia. The Sydney Memory and Ageing Study is an observational population-based cohort study. Participants completed detailed neuropsychological assessments and medical examinations to assess for risk factors such as depression, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, smoking and physical activity. Participants were regularly assessed at 2-year intervals over 8 years. A community sample in Sydney, Australia. One thousand and thirty-seven elderly people without dementia. Overall, 236 (22.8%) participants died within 8 years. Both cognitive ability at baseline and decline in cognitive ability over 2 years predicted mortality. Decline in cognitive ability, but not baseline cognitive ability, was a significant predictor of mortality when depression and other medical risk factors were controlled for. These relationships also held when excluding incident cases of dementia. The findings indicate that decline in cognition is a robust predictor of mortality in older people without dementia at a population level. This relationship is not accounted for by co-morbid depression or other established biomedical risk factors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Use of the Animal Trauma Triage Score, RibScore, Modified RibScore and Other Clinical Factors for Prognostication in Canine Rib Fractures.

PubMed

McCarthy, Daniel; Bacek, Lenore; Kim, Kyoung; Miller, George; Gaillard, Philippe; Kuo, Kendon

2018-06-11

 To characterize the clinical features among dogs sustaining rib fractures and to determine if age, type and severity of injury, entry blood lactate, trauma score and rib fracture score were associated with outcome.  A retrospective study was performed to include dogs that were presented with rib fractures. Risk factors evaluation included breed, age, body weight, diagnosis, presence of a flail chest, bandage use, puncture wound presence, rib fracture number, location of the fracture along the thoracic wall, hospital stay length, body weight, other fractures, pleural effusion, pulmonary contusions, pneumothorax and occurrence of an anaesthetic event. A retrospective calculation of an animal trauma triage (ATT) score, RibScore and Modified RibScore was assigned.  Forty-one medical records were collected. Motor vehicular trauma represented 56% of the rib fracture aetiology, 41% of patients sustained dog bites and one case was of an unknown aetiology. Significant correlations with risk factors were found only with the ATT score. All patients that died had an ATT score ≥ 5. The ATT score correlated positively with mortality ( p  < 0.05) with an ATT score ≥ 7 was 88% sensitive and 81% specific for predicting mortality. A 1-point increase in ATT score corresponded to 2.1 times decreased likelihood of survival. Mean hospital stay was 3 days longer for dog bite cases.  There was no increased mortality rate in canine patients that presented with the suspected risk factors. The only risk factor that predicted mortality was the ATT score. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Changes in the distribution of high-risk births associated with changes in contraceptive prevalence.

PubMed

Stover, John; Ross, John

2013-01-01

Several birth characteristics are associated with high mortality risk: very young or old mothers, short birth intervals and high birth order. One justification for family planning programs is the health benefits associated with better spacing and timing of births. This study examines the extent to which the prevalence of these risk factors changes as a country transitions from high to low fertility. We use data from 194 national surveys to examine both cross section and within-country variation in these risk factors as they relate to the total fertility rate. Declines in the total fertility rate are associated with large declines in the proportion of high order births, those to mothers over the age of 34 and those with multiple risk factors; as well as to increasing proportions of first order births. There is little change in the proportion of births with short birth intervals except in sub-Saharan Africa. The use of family planning is strongly associated with fertility declines. The proportion of second and higher order births with demographic risk factors declines substantially as fertility declines. This creates a potential for reducing child mortality rates. Some of the reduction comes from modifying the birth interval distribution or by bringing maternal age at the time of birth into the 'safe' range of 18-35 years, and some comes from the actual elimination of births that would have a high mortality risk (high parity births).

An assessment of ventilator-associated pneumonias and risk factors identified in the Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Karatas, Mevlut; Saylan, Sedat; Kostakoglu, Ugur; Yilmaz, Gurdal

2016-01-01

Objectives: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a significant cause of hospital-related infections, one that must be prevented due to its high morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the incidence and risk factors in patients developing VAP in our intensive care units (ICUs). Methods: This retrospective cohort study involved in mechanically ventilated patients hospitalized for more than 48 hours. VAP diagnosed patients were divided into two groups, those developing pneumonia (VAP(+)) and those not (VAP(-)).\\ Results: We researched 1560 patients in adult ICUs, 1152 (73.8%) of whom were mechanically ventilated. The MV use rate was 52%. VAP developed in 15.4% of patients. The VAP rate was calculated as 15.7/1000 ventilator days. Mean length of stay in the ICU for VAP(+) and VAP(-) patients were (26.7±16.3 and 18.1±12.7 days (p<0.001)) and mean length of MV use was (23.5±10.3 and 12.6±7.4 days (p<0.001)). High APACHE II and Charlson co-morbidity index scores, extended length of hospitalization and MV time, previous history of hospitalization and antibiotherapy, reintubation, enteral nutrition, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes mellitus and organ failure were determined as significant risk factors for VAP. The mortality rate in the VAP(+) was 65.2%, with 23.6% being attributed to VAP. Conclusion: VAPs are prominent nosocomial infections that can cause considerable morbidity and mortality in ICUs. Patient care procedures for the early diagnosis of patients with a high risk of VAP and for the reduction of risk factors must be implemented by providing training concerning risk factors related to VAP for ICU personnel, and preventable risk factors must be reduced to a minimum. PMID:27648020

Dietary Patterns and Risk of Esophageal Cancer Mortality: The Japan Collaborative Cohort Study.

PubMed

Okada, Emiko; Nakamura, Koshi; Ukawa, Shigekazu; Sakata, Kiyomi; Date, Chigusa; Iso, Hiroyasu; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2016-01-01

Several case-control studies have associated dietary patterns with esophageal cancer (EC) risk, but prospective studies are scarce. We investigated dietary pattern and EC mortality risk associations by smoking status. Participants were 26,562 40- to 79-yr-old Japanese men, who enrolled in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study between 1988 and 1990. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for EC mortality in nonsmokers and smokers were estimated using Cox proportional models. During follow-up (1988-2009), 132 participants died of EC. Using a baseline food frequency questionnaire and factor analysis, vegetable, animal, and dairy product food patterns were identified. EC risk decreased significantly with a higher factor score for the dairy product pattern (Ptrend = 0.042) and was more pronounced in smokers [multivariable HR (4th vs. 1st quartiles) = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.30, 1.09; Ptrend = 0.021]. Neither vegetable nor animal food patterns were significant overall; however, EC risk increased with a higher factor score for the animal food pattern in nonsmokers [multivariable HR (4th vs. 1st quartiles) = 6.01, 95% CI: 1.17, 30.88; Ptrend = 0.021], although the small number of events was a limitation. Our findings suggest a dairy product pattern may reduce EC risk in Japanese men, especially smokers.

Perinatal Decision Making for Preterm Infants with Congenital Heart Disease: Determinable Risk Factors for Mortality.

PubMed

Lynema, Stephanie; Fifer, Carlen G; Laventhal, Naomi T

2016-06-01

For premature infants with congenital heart disease (CHD), it may be unclear when the burdens of treatment outweigh potential benefits. Parents may thus have to choose between comfort care at birth and medical stabilization until surgical repair is feasible. Better defined outcome data, including risk factors for mortality, are needed to counsel expectant parents who are considering intensive care for premature infants with CHD. We sought to evaluate outcomes in this population to inform expectant parents considering intensive versus palliative care at birth. We performed a retrospective cohort study of infants born <34 weeks who received intensive care with critical or moderately severe CHD predicted to require surgery in the neonatal period or the first 6 months of life. 46 % of 54 infants survived. Among non-survivors, 74 % died prior to surgery (median age 24 days). Of the infants that underwent surgery, 75 % survived. Survival was lower among infants <32 weeks gestational age (GA) (p = 0.013), with birth weight (BW) <1500 g (p = 0.011), or with extra-cardiac anomalies (ECA) (p = 0.015). GA and ECA remained significant risk factors for mortality in multiple logistic regression analysis. In summary, GA < 32 weeks, BW < 1500 g, and ECA are determinable prenatally and were significant risk factors for mortality. The majority of infants who survived to cardiac intervention survived neonatal hospitalization, whereas most of the infants who died did so prior to surgery. For some expectant parents, this early declaration of mortality may support a trial of intensive care while avoiding burdensome interventions.

Ischaemic heart disease in the former Soviet Union 1990–2015 according to the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study

PubMed Central

Murphy, Adrianna; Johnson, Catherine O; Roth, Gregory A; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Naghavi, Mohsen; Ng, Marie; Pogosova, Nana; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Moran, Andrew E

2018-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to compare ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and risk factor burden across former Soviet Union (fSU) and satellite countries and regions in 1990 and 2015. Methods The fSU and satellite countries were grouped into Central Asian, Central European and Eastern European regions. IHD mortality data for men and women of any age were gathered from national vital registration, and age, sex, country, year-specific IHD mortality rates were estimated in an ensemble model. IHD morbidity and mortality burden attributable to risk factors was estimated by comparative risk assessment using population attributable fractions. Results In 2015, age-standardised IHD death rates in Eastern European and Central Asian fSU countries were almost two times that of satellite states of Central Europe. Between 1990 and 2015, rates decreased substantially in Central Europe (men −43.5% (95% uncertainty interval −45.0%, −42.0%); women −42.9% (−44.0%, −41.0%)) but less in Eastern Europe (men −5.6% (−9.0, –3.0); women −12.2% (−15.5%, −9.0%)). Age-standardised IHD death rates also varied within regions: within Eastern Europe, rates decreased −51.7% in Estonian men (−54.0, −47.0) but increased +19.4% in Belarusian men (+12.0, +27.0). High blood pressure and cholesterol were leading risk factors for IHD burden, with smoking, body mass index, dietary factors and ambient air pollution also ranking high. Conclusions Some fSU countries continue to experience a high IHD burden, while others have achieved remarkable reductions in IHD mortality. Control of blood pressure, cholesterol and smoking are IHD prevention priorities. PMID:28883037

Acute kidney injury in a single neonatal intensive care unit in Turkey.

PubMed

Bolat, Fatih; Comert, Serdar; Bolat, Guher; Kucuk, Oznur; Can, Emrah; Bulbul, Ali; Uslu, Hasan Sinan; Nuhoglu, Asiye

2013-11-01

Although advances in perinatal medicine have increased the survival rates of critically ill neonates, acute kidney injury (AKI) is still one of the major causes of mortality and morbidity in neonatal intensive care units. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of AKI and analyze demographic data and risk factors associated with the mortality or morbidity. Of 1992 neonates hospitalized between January 2009 and January 2011, 168 with AKI were reviewed in the study. The diagnosis of AKI was based on plasma creatinine level >1.5 mg/dL, which persists for more than 24 hours or increases more than 0.3 mg/dL per day after the first 48 hours of birth while showing normal maternal renal function. The prevalence of AKI was 8.4%. The common cause of AKI was respiratory distress syndrome, followed by sepsis, asphyxia, dehydration, congenital anomalies of the urinary tract, congenital heart disease, and medication. The prevalence of AKI in neonates with birth weight lower than 1500 g was about three-fold higher than in those with birth weight higher than 1500 g (P<0.05). Pregnancy-induced hypertension, preterm prolonged rupture of membranes, and administration of antenatal corticosteroid were associated with increased risk of AKI (P<0.05). Umbilical vein catheterization, mechanical ventilation and ibuprofen therapy for patent ductus arteriosus closure were found to be associated with AKI (P<0.05). The overall mortality rate was 23.8%. Multivariate analysis revealed that birth weight less than 1500 g, mechanical ventilation, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, anuria, and dialysis were the risk factors for the mortality of infants with AKI. Prenatal factors and medical devices were significantly associated with AKI. Early detection of risk factors can reduce the mortality of AKI patients.

[Risk factors associated to preclampsia].

PubMed

López-Carbajal, Mario Joaquín; Manríquez-Moreno, María Esther; Gálvez-Camargo, Daniela; Ramírez-Jiménez, Evelia

2012-01-01

preeclampsia constitutes one of the main causes of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated to the developmental of preeclampsia mild-moderate and severe, as well as the force of association of these factors in a hospital of second-level medical care. study of cases and controls, a relation 1:1, in women withdrawn of the Service of Gynecology and Obstetrics during 2004 to 2007. Pregnant women with more than 20 weeks gestation were included. In the cases group we included patients with diagnosis of preeclampsia mild-moderate or severe (corroborated clinical and laboratory). In the controls group that had a normal childbirth without pathology during the pregnancy. 42 cases and 42 controls. The average age was of 27 years. The associated risk factors were overweight, obesity, irregular prenatal control, short or long intergenesic period, history of caesarean or preeclampsia in previous pregnancies. the knowledge of the risk factors will allow the accomplishment of preventive measures and decrease the fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality due to preeclampsia.

Specific Clinical Profile and Risk Factors for Mortality in General Surgery Patients with Infections by Multi-Drug-Resistant Gram-Negative Bacteria.

PubMed

Rubio-Perez, Ines; Martin-Perez, Elena; Domingo-García, Diego; Garcia-Olmo, Damian

2017-07-01

The incidence of gram-negative multi-drug-resistant (MDR) infections is increasing worldwide. This study sought to determine the incidence, clinical profiles, risk factors, and mortality of these infections in general surgery patients. All general surgery patients with a clinical infection by gram-negative MDR bacteria were studied prospectively for a period of five years (2007-2011). Clinical, surgical, and microbiologic parameters were recorded, with a focus on the identification of risk factors for MDR infection and mortality. Incidence of MDR infections increased (5.6% to 15.2%) during the study period; 106 patients were included, 69.8% presented nosocomial infections. Mean age was 65 ± 15 years, 61% male. Extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBL) Escherichia coli was the most frequent MDR bacteria. Surgical site infections and abscesses were the most common culture locations. The patients presented multiple pre-admission risk factors and invasive measures during hospitalization. Mortality was 15%, and related to older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.07), malnutrition (OR 13.5), chronic digestive conditions (OR 4.7), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 3.9), and surgical re-intervention (OR 9.2). Multi-drug resistant infections in the surgical population are increasing. The most common clinical profile is a 65-year-old male, with previous comorbidities, who has undergone a surgical intervention, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and invasive procedures and who has acquired the MDR infection in the nosocomial setting.

Survival affects decision making for fenestrated and branched endovascular aortic repair.

PubMed

Beach, Jocelyn M; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Parodi, F Ezequiel; Kuramochi, Yuki; Brier, Corey; Blackstone, Eugene; Eagleton, Matthew J

2018-03-01

Repair options for complex abdominal and thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms (TAAAs) are evolving with increased experience and availability of less invasive endovascular techniques. Identifying risk factors for mortality after fenestrated and branched endovascular aortic repair (F/B-EVAR) could improve patient selection and facilitate decision making regarding who may benefit from prophylactic F/B-EVAR. We evaluated 1091 patients in a prospective investigational device exemption trial who underwent F/B-EVAR from August 2001 to June 2015 for complex aortic aneurysms (CAAs). Multivariable analysis of risk factors for death was performed using a nonproportional hazards model and a nonparametric analysis using random survival forest technology. Operative mortality after F/B-EVAR was low (3.7%), with high CAA-related survival at 30 day and 5 years (96.8% and 94.0%, respectively). All-cause 5-year survival, however, was 46.2% and older age, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal disease, anemia, and coagulation disorders were risk factors. Risk was highest for those undergoing type I/II TAAA repairs and those with larger aneurysms. Patients with multiple comorbidities and those undergoing type I or II TAAA repair are at greatest risk of mortality; however, in this high-risk population, F/B-EVAR offers greater survival compared with that reported for the natural history of untreated aneurysms. Operative and early mortality is lower than the best-reported open repair outcomes, even in this high-risk population, suggesting a potential benefit in extending the use of F/B-EVAR to low-to-average risk CAA patients. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial-temporal dynamics and structural determinants of child and maternal mortality in a rural, high HIV burdened South African population, 2000-2014: a study protocol.

PubMed

Tlou, B; Sartorius, B; Tanser, F

2016-07-15

Child (infant and under-5) and maternal mortality rates are key indicators for assessing the health status of populations. South Africa's maternal and child mortality rates are high, and the country mirrors the continental trend of slow progress towards its Millennium Development Goals. Rural areas are often more affected regarding child and maternal mortalities, specifically in areas with a high HIV burden. This study aims to understand the factors affecting child and maternal mortality in the Africa Centre Demographic Surveillance Area (DSA) from 2003 to 2014 towards developing tailored interventions to reduce the deaths in resource poor settings. This will be done by identifying child and maternal mortality 'hotspots' and their associated risk factors. This retrospective study will use data for 2003-2014 from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. All homesteads in the study area have been mapped to an accuracy of <2 m, all deaths recorded and the assigned cause of death established using a verbal autopsy interview. Advanced spatial-temporal clustering techniques (both regular (Kulldorff) and irregular (FleXScan)) will be used to identify mortality 'hotspots'. Various advanced statistical modelling approaches will be tested and used to identify significant risk factors for child and maternal mortality. Differences in attributability and risk factors profiles in identified 'hotspots' will be assessed to enable tailored intervention guidance/development. This multicomponent study will enable a refined intervention model to be developed for typical rural populations with a high HIV burden. Ethical approval was received from the Biomedical Research Ethics Committee (BREC) of the University of KwaZulu-Natal (BE 169/15). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Potential health gains and health losses in eleven EU countries attainable through feasible prevalences of the life-style related risk factors alcohol, BMI, and smoking: a quantitative health impact assessment.

PubMed

Lhachimi, Stefan K; Nusselder, Wilma J; Smit, Henriette A; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Mackenbach, Johan P

2016-08-05

Influencing the life-style risk-factors alcohol, body mass index (BMI), and smoking is an European Union (EU) wide objective of public health policy. The population-level health effects of these risk-factors depend on population specific characteristics and are difficult to quantify without dynamic population health models. For eleven countries-approx. 80 % of the EU-27 population-we used evidence from the publicly available DYNAMO-HIA data-set. For each country the age- and sex-specific risk-factor prevalence and the incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of nine chronic diseases are utilized; including the corresponding relative risks linking risk-factor exposure causally to disease incidence and all-cause mortality. Applying the DYNAMO-HIA tool, we dynamically project the country-wise potential health gains and losses using feasible, i.e. observed elsewhere, risk-factor prevalence rates as benchmarks. The effects of the "worst practice", "best practice", and the currently observed risk-factor prevalence on population health are quantified and expected changes in life expectancy, morbidity-free life years, disease cases, and cumulative mortality are reported. Applying the best practice smoking prevalence yields the largest gains in life expectancy with 0.4 years for males and 0.3 year for females (approx. 332,950 and 274,200 deaths postponed, respectively) while the worst practice smoking prevalence also leads to the largest losses with 0.7 years for males and 0.9 year for females (approx. 609,400 and 710,550 lives lost, respectively). Comparing morbidity-free life years, the best practice smoking prevalence shows the highest gains for males with 0.4 years (342,800 less disease cases), whereas for females the best practice BMI prevalence yields the largest gains with 0.7 years (1,075,200 less disease cases). Smoking is still the risk-factor with the largest potential health gains. BMI, however, has comparatively large effects on morbidity. Future research should aim to improve knowledge of how policies can influence and shape individual and aggregated life-style-related risk-factor behavior.

Neonatal cerebral sinovenous thrombosis: Two cases, two different gene polymorphisms and risk factors.

PubMed

Turan, Özden; Anuk-İnce, Deniz; Olcay, Lale; Sezer, Taner; Gülleroğlu, Kaan; Yılmaz-Çelik, Zerrin; Ecevit, Ayşe

2017-01-01

Turan Ö, Anuk-İnce D, Olcay L, Sezer T, Gülleroğlu K, Yılmaz-Çelik Z, Ecevit A. Neonatal cerebral sinovenous thrombosis: Two cases, two different gene polymorphisms and risk factors. Turk J Pediatr 2017; 59: 71-75. Cerebral sinovenous thrombosis (CSVT) is a rare disease in the neonatal period and also the greatest risk of neonatal mortality and morbidity. In this report, we presented two cases with CSVT and different risk factors. One of these cases had methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T homozygous polymorphism and the other case had both MTHFR A1298C homozygous polymorphism, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) 4G/ 5G polymorphism and elevated lipoprotein a. Early diagnosis and prompt initiation of therapy of neonatal CSVT may prevent neonatal mortality and poor long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes.