Workshop: Economic Valuation of Mortality Risk Reduction: Assessing the State of the Art for Policy Applications (2002)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This two-day workshop, co-sponsored by EPA's National Center for Environmental Economics and National Center for Environmental Research, was dedicated to exploring methods for valuing mortality risk reductions. There were six sessions held in total.

Recessions, Job Loss, and Mortality Among Older US Adults

PubMed Central

Beckfield, Jason

2014-01-01

Objectives. We analyzed how recessions and job loss jointly shape mortality risks among older US adults. Methods. We used data for 50 states from the Health and Retirement Study and selected individuals who were employed at ages 45 to 66 years during 1992 to 2011. We assessed whether job loss affects mortality risks, whether recessions moderate the effect of job loss on mortality, and whether individuals who do and do not experience job loss are differentially affected by recessions. Results. Compared with individuals not experiencing job loss, mortality risks among individuals losing their job in a recession were strongly elevated (hazard ratio = 1.6; 95% confidence interval = 1.1, 2.3). Job loss during normal times or booms is not associated with mortality. For employed workers, we found a reduction in mortality risks if local labor market conditions were depressed, but this result was not consistent across different model specifications. Conclusions. Recessions increase mortality risks among older US adults who experience job loss. Health professionals and policymakers should target resources to this group during recessions. Future research should clarify which health conditions are affected by job loss during recessions and whether access to health care following job loss moderates this relation. PMID:25211731

Local Breast Cancer Spatial Patterning: A Tool for Community Health Resource Allocation to Address Local Disparities in Breast Cancer Mortality

PubMed Central

Brantley-Sieders, Dana M.; Fan, Kang-Hsien; Deming-Halverson, Sandra L.; Shyr, Yu; Cook, Rebecca S.

2012-01-01

Despite available demographic data on the factors that contribute to breast cancer mortality in large population datasets, local patterns are often overlooked. Such local information could provide a valuable metric by which regional community health resources can be allocated to reduce breast cancer mortality. We used national and statewide datasets to assess geographical distribution of breast cancer mortality rates and known risk factors influencing breast cancer mortality in middle Tennessee. Each county in middle Tennessee, and each ZIP code within metropolitan Davidson County, was scored for risk factor prevalence and assigned quartile scores that were used as a metric to identify geographic areas of need. While breast cancer mortality often correlated with age and incidence, geographic areas were identified in which breast cancer mortality rates did not correlate with age and incidence, but correlated with additional risk factors, such as mammography screening and socioeconomic status. Geographical variability in specific risk factors was evident, demonstrating the utility of this approach to identify local areas of risk. This method revealed local patterns in breast cancer mortality that might otherwise be overlooked in a more broadly based analysis. Our data suggest that understanding the geographic distribution of breast cancer mortality, and the distribution of risk factors that contribute to breast cancer mortality, will not only identify communities with the greatest need of support, but will identify the types of resources that would provide the most benefit to reduce breast cancer mortality in the community. PMID:23028869

Access to Heart Transplantation: A Proper Analysis of the Competing Risks of Death and Transplantation Is Required to Optimize Graft Allocation.

PubMed

Cantrelle, Christelle; Legeai, Camille; Latouche, Aurélien; Tuppin, Philippe; Jasseron, Carine; Sebbag, Laurent; Bastien, Olivier; Dorent, Richard

2017-08-01

Heart allocation systems are usually urgency-based, offering grafts to candidates at high risk of waitlist mortality. In the context of a revision of the heart allocation rules, we determined observed predictors of 1-year waitlist mortality in France, considering the competing risk of transplantation, to determine which candidate subgroups are favored or disadvantaged by the current allocation system. Patients registered on the French heart waitlist between 2010 and 2013 were included. Cox cause-specific hazards and Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards were used to determine candidate characteristics associated with waitlist mortality and access to transplantation. Of the 2053 candidates, 7 variables were associated with 1-year waitlist mortality by the Fine and Gray method including 4 candidate characteristics related to heart failure severity (hospitalization at listing, serum natriuretic peptide level, systolic pulmonary artery pressure, and glomerular filtration rate) and 3 characteristics not associated with heart failure severity but with lower access to transplantation (blood type, age, and body mass index). Observed waitlist mortality for candidates on mechanical circulatory support was like that of others. The heart allocation system strongly modifies the risk of pretransplant mortality related to heart failure severity. An in-depth competing risk analysis is therefore a more appropriate method to evaluate graft allocation systems. This knowledge should help to prioritize candidates in the context of a limited donor pool.

ASSESSMENT OF THE RATES OF INJURY AND MORTALITY IN WATERFOWL CAPTURED WITH FIVE METHODS OF CAPTURE AND TECHNIQUES FOR MINIMIZING RISKS.

PubMed

O'Brien, Michelle F; Lee, Rebecca; Cromie, Ruth; Brown, Martin J

2016-04-01

Swan pipes, duck decoys, cage traps, cannon netting, and roundups are widely used to capture waterfowl in order to monitor populations. These methods are often regulated in countries with national ringing or banding programs and are considered to be safe, and thus justifiable given the benefits to conservation. However, few published studies have addressed how frequently injuries and mortalities occur, or the nature of any injuries. In the present study, rates of mortality and injury during captures with the use of these methods carried out by the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust as part of conservation programs were assessed. The total rate of injury (including mild dermal abrasions) was 0.42% across all species groups, whereas total mortality was 0.1% across all capture methods. Incidence of injury varied among species groups (ducks, geese, swans, and rails), with some, for example, dabbling ducks, at greater risk than others. We also describe techniques used before, during, and after a capture to reduce stress and injury in captured waterfowl. Projects using these or other capture methods should monitor and publish their performance to allow sharing of experience and to reduce risks further.

Mortality among High Risk Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction Admitted to U.S. Teaching-Intensive Hospitals in July: A Retrospective Observational Study

PubMed Central

Jena, Anupam B.; Sun, Eric C.; Romley, John A.

2014-01-01

Background Studies of whether inpatient mortality in U.S. teaching hospitals rises in July as a result of organizational disruption and relative inexperience of new physicians (‘July effect’) find small and mixed results, perhaps because study populations primarily include low-risk inpatients whose mortality outcomes are unlikely to exhibit a July effect. Methods and Results Using the U.S. Nationwide Inpatient sample, we estimated difference-in-difference models of mortality, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) rates, and bleeding complication rates, for high and low risk patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) admitted to 98 teaching-intensive and 1353 non-teaching-intensive hospitals during May and July 2002 to 2008. Among patients in the top quartile of predicted AMI mortality (high risk), adjusted mortality was lower in May than July in teaching-intensive hospitals (18.8% in May, 22.7% in July, p<0.01), but similar in non-teaching-intensive hospitals (22.5% in May, 22.8% in July, p=0.70). Among patients in the lowest three quartiles of predicted AMI mortality (low risk), adjusted mortality was similar in May and July in both teaching-intensive hospitals (2.1% in May, 1.9% in July, p=0.45) and non-teaching-intensive hospitals (2.7% in May, 2.8% in July, p=0.21). Differences in PCI and bleeding complication rates could not explain the observed July mortality effect among high risk patients. Conclusions High risk AMI patients experience similar mortality in teaching- and non-teaching-intensive hospitals in July, but lower mortality in teaching-intensive hospitals in May. Low risk patients experience no such “July effect” in teaching-intensive hospitals. PMID:24152859

Mortality from motorcycle crashes: the baby-boomer cohort effect.

PubMed

Puac-Polanco, Victor; Keyes, Katherine M; Li, Guohua

2016-12-01

Motorcyclists are known to be at substantially higher risk per mile traveled of dying from crashes than car occupants. In 2014, motorcycling made up less than 1 % of person-miles traveled but 13 % of the total mortality from motor-vehicle crashes in the United States. We assessed the cohort effect of the baby-boomers (i.e., those born between 1946 and 1964) in motorcycle crash mortality from 1975 to 2014 in the United States. Using mortality data for motorcycle occupants from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis using the multiphase method and the intrinsic estimator method. Baby-boomers experienced the highest mortality rates from motorcycle crashes at age 20-24 years and continued to experience excess mortality after age 40 years. After removing the effects of age and period, the estimated mortality risk from motorcycle crashes for baby-boomers was 48 % higher than that of the referent cohort (those born between 1930 and 1934, rate ratio 1.48; 95 % CI: 1.01, 2.18). Results from the multiphase method and the intrinsic estimator method were consistent. The baby-boomers have experienced significantly higher mortality from motorcycle crashes than other birth cohorts. To reduce motorcycle crash mortality, intervention programs specifically tailored for the baby-boomer generation are warranted.

Validated Competing Event Model for the Stage I-II Endometrial Cancer Population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carmona, Ruben; Gulaya, Sachin; Murphy, James D.

2014-07-15

Purpose/Objectives(s): Early-stage endometrial cancer patients are at higher risk of noncancer mortality than of cancer mortality. Competing event models incorporating comorbidity could help identify women most likely to benefit from treatment intensification. Methods and Materials: 67,397 women with stage I-II endometrioid adenocarcinoma after total hysterectomy diagnosed from 1988 to 2009 were identified in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and linked SEER-Medicare databases. Using demographic and clinical information, including comorbidity, we sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict the incidence of competing mortality. Results: In the validation cohort, increasing competing mortality risk score was associated with increasedmore » risk of noncancer mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio [SDHR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-2.30) and decreased risk of endometrial cancer mortality (SDHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.55-0.78). Controlling for other variables, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) = 1 (SDHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.45-1.82) and CCI >1 (SDHR, 3.31; 95% CI, 2.74-4.01) were associated with increased risk of noncancer mortality. The 10-year cumulative incidences of competing mortality within low-, medium-, and high-risk strata were 27.3% (95% CI, 25.2%-29.4%), 34.6% (95% CI, 32.5%-36.7%), and 50.3% (95% CI, 48.2%-52.6%), respectively. With increasing competing mortality risk score, we observed a significant decline in omega (ω), indicating a diminishing likelihood of benefit from treatment intensification. Conclusion: Comorbidity and other factors influence the risk of competing mortality among patients with early-stage endometrial cancer. Competing event models could improve our ability to identify patients likely to benefit from treatment intensification.« less

Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

PubMed Central

Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

2015-01-01

Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality

PubMed Central

Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

2015-01-01

Background Recent steep declines in child mortality have been attributed in part to increased use of contraceptives and the resulting change in fertility behaviour, including an increase in the time between births. Previous observational studies have documented strong associations between short birth spacing and an increase in the risk of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality, compared to births with longer preceding birth intervals. In this analysis, we compare two methods to estimate the association between short birth intervals and mortality risk to better inform modelling efforts linking family planning and mortality in children. Objectives Our goal was to estimate the mortality risk for neonates, infants, and young children by preceding birth space using household survey data, controlling for mother-level factors and to compare the results to those from previous analyses with survey data. Design We assessed the potential for confounding when estimating the relative mortality risk by preceding birth interval and estimated mortality risk by birth interval in four categories: less than 18 months, 18–23 months, 24–35 months, and 36 months or longer. We estimated the relative risks among women who were 35 and older at the time of the survey with two methods: in a Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for potential confounders and also by stratifying Cox regression by mother, to control for all factors that remain constant over a woman's childbearing years. We estimated the overall effects for birth spacing in a meta-analysis with random survey effects. Results We identified several factors known for their associations with neonatal, infant, and child mortality that are also associated with preceding birth interval. When estimating the effect of birth spacing on mortality, we found that regression adjustment for these factors does not substantially change the risk ratio for short birth intervals compared to an unadjusted mortality ratio. For birth intervals less than 18 months, standard regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18–2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52–1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Conclusions Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality. PMID:26562139

Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality.

PubMed

Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

2015-01-01

Recent steep declines in child mortality have been attributed in part to increased use of contraceptives and the resulting change in fertility behaviour, including an increase in the time between births. Previous observational studies have documented strong associations between short birth spacing and an increase in the risk of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality, compared to births with longer preceding birth intervals. In this analysis, we compare two methods to estimate the association between short birth intervals and mortality risk to better inform modelling efforts linking family planning and mortality in children. Our goal was to estimate the mortality risk for neonates, infants, and young children by preceding birth space using household survey data, controlling for mother-level factors and to compare the results to those from previous analyses with survey data. We assessed the potential for confounding when estimating the relative mortality risk by preceding birth interval and estimated mortality risk by birth interval in four categories: less than 18 months, 18-23 months, 24-35 months, and 36 months or longer. We estimated the relative risks among women who were 35 and older at the time of the survey with two methods: in a Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for potential confounders and also by stratifying Cox regression by mother, to control for all factors that remain constant over a woman's childbearing years. We estimated the overall effects for birth spacing in a meta-analysis with random survey effects. We identified several factors known for their associations with neonatal, infant, and child mortality that are also associated with preceding birth interval. When estimating the effect of birth spacing on mortality, we found that regression adjustment for these factors does not substantially change the risk ratio for short birth intervals compared to an unadjusted mortality ratio. For birth intervals less than 18 months, standard regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18-2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52-1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality.

Causes of Death in Men With Prevalent Diabetes and Newly Diagnosed High- Versus Favorable-Risk Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D'Amico, Anthony V., E-mail: adamico@partners.or; Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J.

2010-08-01

Purpose: To determine whether prevalent diabetes mellitus (pDM) affects the presentation, extent of radiotherapy, or prostate cancer (PCa)-specific mortality (PCSM) and whether PCa aggressiveness affects the risk of non-PCSM, DM-related mortality, and all-cause mortality in men with pDM. Methods: Between October 1997 and July 2907, 5,279 men treated at the Chicago Prostate Cancer Center with radiotherapy for PCa were included in the study. Logistic and competing risk regression analyses were performed to assess whether pDM was associated with high-grade PCa, less aggressive radiotherapy, and an increased risk of PCSM. Competing risks and Cox regression analyses were performed to assess whethermore » PCa aggressiveness described by risk group in men with pDM was associated with the risk of non-PCSM, DM-related mortality, and all-cause mortality. Analyses were adjusted for predictors of high-grade PCa and factors that could affect treatment extent and mortality. Results: Men with pDM were more likely (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.7; p = .002) to present with high-grade PCa but were not treated less aggressively (p = .33) and did not have an increased risk of PCSM (p = .58) compared to men without pDM. Among the men with pDM, high-risk PCa was associated with a greater risk of non-PCSM (AHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.5; p = .035), DM-related mortality (AHR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.0-14.0; p = .001), and all-cause mortality (AHR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.7; p = .01) compared to favorable-risk PCa. Conclusion: Aggressive management of pDM is warranted in men with high-risk PCa.« less

The value of customised centiles in assessing perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size.

PubMed

Gardosi, J; Clausson, B; Francis, A

2009-09-01

We wanted to compare customised and population standards for defining smallness for gestational age (SGA) in the assessment of perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size. Population-based cohort study. Sweden. Swedish Birth Registry database 1992-1995 with 354 205 complete records. Coefficients were derived and applied to determine SGA by the fully customised method, or by adjustment for fetal sex only, and using the same fetal weight standard. Perinatal deaths and rates of small for gestational age (SGA) babies within subgroups stratified by parity, body mass index (BMI) and maternal size within the BMI range of 20.0-24.9. Perinatal mortality rates (PMR) had a U-shaped distribution in parity groups, increased proportionately with maternal BMI, and had no association with maternal size within the normal BMI range. For each of these subgroups, SGA rates determined by the customised method showed strong association with the PMR. In contrast, SGA based on uncustomised, population-based centiles had poor correlation with perinatal mortality. The increased perinatal mortality risk in pregnancies of obese mothers was associated with an increased risk of SGA using customised centiles, and a decreased risk of SGA using population-based centiles. The use of customised centiles to determine SGA improves the identification of pregnancies which are at increased risk of perinatal death.

Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at old age: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

2018-01-01

Background Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. Aims We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Method Longitudinal cohort study of 1,964 community-dwelling adults aged 65 to 79 years. Results The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% CI, 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and sex. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Conclusions Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. PMID:26941265

Comparison of methods for identifying small-for-gestational-age infants at risk of perinatal mortality among obese mothers: a hospital-based cohort study.

PubMed

Hinkle, S N; Sjaarda, L A; Albert, P S; Mendola, P; Grantz, K L

2016-11-01

To assess differences in small-for-gestational age (SGA) classifications for the detection of neonates with increased perinatal mortality risk among obese women and subsequently assess the association between prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) status and SGA. Hospital-based cohort. Twelve US clinical centres (2002-08). A total of 114 626 singleton, nonanomalous pregnancies. Data were collected using electronic medical record abstraction. Relative risks (RR) with 95% CI were estimated. SGA trends (birthweight < 10th centile) classified using population-based (SGA POP ), intrauterine (SGA IU ) and customised (SGA CUST ) references were assessed. The SGA-associated perinatal mortality risk was estimated among obese women. Using the SGA method most associated with perinatal mortality, the association between prepregnancy BMI and SGA was estimated. The overall perinatal mortality prevalence was 0.55% and this increased significantly with increasing BMI (P < 0.01). Among obese women, SGA IU detected the highest proportion of perinatal mortality cases (2.49%). Perinatal mortality was 5.32 times (95% CI 3.72-7.60) more likely among SGA IU neonates than non-SGA IU neonates. This is in comparison with the 3.71-fold (2.49-5.53) and 4.81-fold (3.41-6.80) increased risk observed when SGA POP and SGA CUST were used, respectively. Compared with women of normal weight, overweight women (RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.86) and obese women (RR = 0.80; 95% CI 0.75-0.83) had a lower risk for delivering an SGA IU neonate. Among obese women, the intrauterine reference best identified neonates at risk of perinatal mortality. Based on SGA IU , SGA is less common among obese women but these SGA babies are at a high risk of death and remain an important group for surveillance. SGA is less common among obese women but these SGA babies are at a high risk of death. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The effect of gender, age, and symptom severity in late-life depression on the risk of all-cause mortality: The Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging

PubMed Central

Diniz, Breno S.; Reynolds, Charles F.; Butters, Meryl A.; Dew, Mary Amanda; Firmo, Josélia O. A.; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Castro-Costa, Erico

2014-01-01

Background Increased mortality risk and its moderators is an important, but still under recognized, negative outcome of Late-Life Depression (LLD). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in a population-based study with over ten years of follow-up, and addressed the moderating effect of gender and symptom severity on mortality risk. Methods This analysis used data from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging. The study population comprised 1.508 (86.5%) of all eligible 1.742 elderly residents. Depressive symptoms were annually evaluated by the GHQ-12, with scores of 5 or higher indicating clinically significant depression. From 1997 to 2007, 441 participants died during 10,648 person-years of follow-up. We estimated the hazard ratio for mortality risk by Cox regression analyses. Results Depressive symptoms were a risk factor for all-cause mortality after adjusting for confounding lifestyle and clinical factors (adjusted HR=1.24 CI95% [1.00–1.55], p=0.05). Mortality risk was significantly elevated in men (adjusted HR=1.45 CI95% [1.01 – 2.07], p=0.04), but not in women (adjusted HR=1.13 CI95% [0.84 – 1.48], p=0.15). We observed a significant interaction between gender and depressive symptoms on mortality risk ((HR= 1.72 CI95% [1.18 – 2.49], p=0.004). Conclusion The present study provides evidence that LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in the elderly, especially in men. The prevention and adequate treatment of LLD may help to reduce premature disability and death among elders with depressive symptoms. PMID:24353128

Anti-Gay Prejudice and All-Cause Mortality Among Heterosexuals in the United States

PubMed Central

Bellatorre, Anna; Muennig, Peter

2014-01-01

Objectives. We determined whether individuals who harbor antigay prejudice experience elevated mortality risk. Methods. Data on heterosexual sexual orientation (n = 20 226, aged 18–89 years), antigay attitudes, and mortality risk factors came from the General Social Survey, which was linked to mortality data from the National Death Index (1988–2008). We used Cox proportional hazard models to examine whether antigay prejudice was associated with mortality risk among heterosexuals. Results. Heterosexuals who reported higher levels of antigay prejudice had higher mortality risk than those who reported lower levels (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09, 1.42), with control for multiple risk factors for mortality, including demographics, socioeconomic status, and fair or poor self-rated health. This result translates into a life expectancy difference of approximately 2.5 years (95% CI = 1.0, 4.0 years) between individuals with high versus low levels of antigay prejudice. Furthermore, in sensitivity analyses, antigay prejudice was specifically associated with increased risk of cardiovascular-related causes of death in fully adjusted models (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.04, 1.60). Conclusions. The findings contribute to a growing body of research suggesting that reducing prejudice may improve the health of both minority and majority populations. PMID:24328664

Explanatory Style in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: An Unrecognized Predictor of Mortality

PubMed Central

Crowson, Aaron D.; Colligan, Robert C.; Matteson, Eric L.; Davis, John M.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine whether pessimistic explanatory style altered the risk for and mortality of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Methods The study included subjects from a population-based cohort with incident RA and non-RA comparison cohort who completed the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI). Results Among 148 RA and 135 non-RA subjects, pessimism was associated with development of rheumatoid factor positive (RF+) RA. Pessimism was associated with an increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR]:2.88 with similar magnitude to RF+ (HR:2.28). Conclusion Pessimistic explanatory style was associated with an increased risk of developing RA and increased mortality rate in patients with RA. PMID:28148754

Meta-Analysis of Self-Reported Daytime Napping and Risk of Cardiovascular or All-Cause Mortality

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaokun; Zhang, Qi; Shang, Xiaoming

2015-01-01

Background Whether self-reported daytime napping is an independent predictor of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate self-reported daytime napping and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality by conducting a meta-analysis. Material/Methods A computerized literature search of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library was conducted up to May 2014. Only prospective studies reporting risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality with respect to baseline self-reported daytime napping were included. Results Seven studies with 98,163 subjects were included. Self-reported daytime napping was associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality (RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.07–1.24) compared with non-nappers. Risk of all-cause mortality appeared to be more pronounced among persons with nap duration >60 min (RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.04–1.27) than persons with nap duration <60 min (RR 1.10; 95% CI 0.92–1.32). The pooled RR of cardiovascular mortality was 1.19 (95% CI 0.97–1.48) comparing daytime nappers to non-nappers. Conclusions Self-reported daytime napping is a mild but statistically significant predictor for all-cause mortality, but not for cardiovascular mortality. However, whether the risk is attributable to excessive sleep duration or napping alone remains controversial. More prospective studies stratified by sleep duration, napping periods, or age are needed. PMID:25937468

Socioeconomic Status, Marital Status Continuity and Change, Marital Conflict, and Mortality

PubMed Central

Choi, Heejeong; Marks, Nadine F.

2010-01-01

Objectives We investigated (1) whether being continuously married compared to other marital status trajectories over 5 years attenuates the adverse effects of lower education and lower income on longevity, (2) whether being in higher-conflict as well as lower-conflict marriage compared to being single provides a buffer against SES inequalities in mortality, and (3) whether the conditional effects of marital factors on the SES-mortality association vary by gender. Method We estimated logistic regression models with data from adults aged 30 or older who participated in the National Survey of Families and Households 1987–2002. Results Being continuously married, compared to being continuously never married or making a transition to separation/divorce, buffered mortality risks among men with low income. Mortality risk for low income men was also lower in higher-conflict marriages compared to being never married or previously married. Discussion Marriage ameliorates mortality risks for some low income men. PMID:21273502

Factoring socioeconomic status into cardiac performance profiling for hospitals: does it matter?

PubMed

Alter, David A; Austin, Peter C; Naylor, C David; Tu, Jack V

2002-01-01

Critics of "scorecard medicine" often highlight the incompleteness of risk-adjustment methods used when accounting for baseline patient differences. Although socioeconomic status is a highly important determinant of adverse outcome for patients admitted to the hospital with acute myocardial infarction, it has not been used in most risk-adjustment models for cardiovascular report cards. To determine the incremental impact of socioeconomic status adjustments on age, sex, and illness severity for hospital-specific 30-day mortality rates after acute myocardial infarction. The authors compared the absolute and relative hospital-specific 30-day acute myocardial infarction mortality rates in 169 hospitals throughout Ontario between April 1, 1994 and March 31, 1997. Patient socioeconomic status was characterized by median neighborhood income using postal codes and 1996 Canadian census data. They examined two risk-adjustment models: the first adjusted for age, sex, and illness severity (standard), whereas the second adjusted for age, sex, illness severity, and median neighborhood income level (socioeconomic status). There was an extremely strong correlation between 'standard' and 'socioeconomic status' risk-adjusted mortality rates (r = 0.99). Absolute differences in 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates between the socioeconomic status and standard risk-adjustment models were small (median, 0.1%; 25th-75th percentile, 0.1-0.2). The agreement in the quintile rankings of hospitals between the socioeconomic status and standard risk-adjustment models was high (weighted kappa = 0.93). Despite its importance as a determinant of patient outcomes, the effect of socioeconomic status on hospital-specific mortality rates over and above standard risk-adjustment methods for acute myocardial infarction hospital profiling in Ontario was negligible.

Psychological Factors and Mortality Risk in a Rural Area of Japan

PubMed Central

Tokushima, Yasuko; Hosoda, Takenobu; Okamoto, Mikizo; Kurozawa, Youichi

2014-01-01

Background The purpose of this study is to assess the association between psychological factors and mortality risk from all causes. Methods We used follow-up data for 4,181 persons from 40 to 79 years over a period of 17.6 years from one part of the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study (JACC Study). The status of the individuals comprising the data of the study as of the end of December 2006 was determined from their registration cards and death records. We calculated the proportions of selected variables among 5 psychological factors by sex. Cox’s proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the associations between psychological factors and mortality risk from all causes. Data were adjusted for age, medical history, education, job status, marital status, drinking, smoking, physical activity, sleeping duration, body mass index and breakfast. Results During the follow-up period, a total of 791 deaths were recorded. Men who reported feelings of being trusted had a decreased risk for mortality risk from all causes compared with the risk of those who reported “maybe”, whereas those without feelings of being trusted had increased risk for mortality risk from all causes. Conclusion This study suggests that the absence of feelings of being trusted increases the risk of all causes of mortality among middle-aged and elderly men in a rural area. Our findings suggest that interpersonal relationships comprise an important factor in longevity. PMID:25324588

Prioritizing Sites for Protection and Restoration for Grizzly Bears (Ursus arctos) in Southwestern Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Braid, Andrew C R; Nielsen, Scott E

2015-01-01

As the influence of human activities on natural systems continues to expand, there is a growing need to prioritize not only pristine sites for protection, but also degraded sites for restoration. We present an approach for simultaneously prioritizing sites for protection and restoration that considers landscape patterns for a threatened population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in southwestern Alberta, Canada. We considered tradeoffs between bottom-up (food resource supply) and top-down (mortality risk from roads) factors affecting seasonal habitat quality for bears. Simulated annealing was used to prioritize source-like sites (high habitat productivity, low mortality risk) for protection, as well as sink-like sites (high habitat productivity, high mortality risk) for restoration. Priority source-like habitats identified key conservation areas where future developments should be limited, whereas priority sink-like habitats identified key areas for mitigating road-related mortality risk with access management. Systematic conservation planning methods can be used to complement traditional habitat-based methods for individual focal species by identifying habitats where conservation actions (both protection and restoration) have the highest potential utility.

Methods to Estimate Acclimatization to Urban Heat Island Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality.

PubMed

Milojevic, Ai; Armstrong, Ben G; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bohnenstengel, Sylvia I; Barratt, Benjamin; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-07-01

Investigators have examined whether heat mortality risk is increased in neighborhoods subject to the urban heat island (UHI) effect but have not identified degrees of difference in susceptibility to heat and cold between cool and hot areas, which we call acclimatization to the UHI. We developed methods to examine and quantify the degree of acclimatization to heat- and cold-related mortality in relation to UHI anomalies and applied these methods to London, UK. Case-crossover analyses were undertaken on 1993-2006 mortality data from London UHI decile groups defined by anomalies from the London average of modeled air temperature at a 1-km grid resolution. We estimated how UHI anomalies modified excess mortality on cold and hot days for London overall and displaced a fixed-shape temperature-mortality function ("shifted spline" model). We also compared the observed associations with those expected under no or full acclimatization to the UHI. The relative risk of death on hot versus normal days differed very little across UHI decile groups. A 1°C UHI anomaly multiplied the risk of heat death by 1.004 (95% CI: 0.950, 1.061) (interaction rate ratio) compared with the expected value of 1.070 (1.057, 1.082) if there were no acclimatization. The corresponding UHI interaction for cold was 1.020 (0.979, 1.063) versus 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) (actual versus expected under no acclimatization, respectively). Fitted splines for heat shifted little across UHI decile groups, again suggesting acclimatization. For cold, the splines shifted somewhat in the direction of no acclimatization, but did not exclude acclimatization. We have proposed two analytical methods for estimating the degree of acclimatization to the heat- and cold-related mortality burdens associated with UHIs. The results for London suggest relatively complete acclimatization to the UHI effect on summer heat-related mortality, but less clear evidence for cold-related mortality. Milojevic A, Armstrong BG, Gasparrini A, Bohnenstengel SI, Barratt B, Wilkinson P. 2016. Methods to estimate acclimatization to urban heat island effects on heat- and cold-related mortality. Environ Health Perspect 124:1016-1022; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510109.

An Estimation of Mortality Risks among People Living with HIV in Karnataka State, India: Learnings from an Intensive HIV/AIDS Care and Support Programme

PubMed Central

Prakash, Ravi; Isac, Shajy; Washington, Reynold; Halli, Shiva S.

2016-01-01

Background In Indian context, limited attempts have been made to estimate the mortality risks among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We estimated the rates of mortality among PLHIV covered under an integrated HIV-prevention cum care and support programme implemented in Karnataka state, India, and attempted to identify the key programme components associated with the higher likelihood of their survival. Methods Retrospective programme data of 55,801 PLHIV registered with the Samastha programme implemented in Karnataka state during 2006–11 was used. Kaplan-Meier survival methods were used to estimate the ten years expected survival probabilities and Cox-proportional hazard model was used to examine the factors associated with risk of mortality among PLHIV. We also calculated mortality rates (per 1000 person-year) across selected demographic and clinical parameters. Results Of the total PLHIV registered with the programme, about nine percent died within the 5-years of programme period with an overall death rate of 38 per 1000 person-years. The mortality rate was higher among males, aged 18 and above, among illiterates, and those residing in rural areas. While the presence of co-infections such as Tuberculosis leads to higher mortality rate, adherence to ART was significantly associated with reduction in overall death rate. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that increase in CD4 cell counts and exposure to intensive care and support programme for at least two years can bring significant reduction in risk of death among PLHIV [(hazard ratio: 0.234; CI: 0.211–0.260) & (hazard ratio: 0.062; CI: 0.054–0.071), respectively] even after adjusting the effect of other socio-demographic, economic and health related confounders. Conclusion Study confirms that while residing in rural areas and presence of co-infection significantly increases the mortality risk among PLHIV, adherence to ART and improvement in CD4 counts led to significant reduction in their mortality risk. Longer exposure to the intervention contributed significantly to reduce mortality among PLHIV. PMID:27253974

Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María Del Pilar

2017-03-09

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

Marijuana use and mortality.

PubMed Central

Sidney, S; Beck, J E; Tekawa, I S; Quesenberry, C P; Friedman, G D

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of marijuana use to mortality. METHODS: The study population comprised 65171 Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program enrollees, aged 15 through 49 years, who completed questionnaires about smoking habits, including marijuana use, between 1979 and 1985. Mortality follow-up was conducted through 1991. RESULTS: Compared with nonuse or experimentation (lifetime use six or fewer times), current marijuana use was not associated with a significantly increased risk of non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality in men (relative risk [RR] = 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89, 1.39) or of total mortality in women (RR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.80, 1.48). Current marijuana use was associated with increased risk of AIDS mortality in men (RR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.33, 2.73), an association that probably was not causal but most likely represented uncontrolled confounding by male homosexual behavior. This interpretation was supported by the lack of association of marijuana use with AIDS mortality in men from a Kaiser Permanente AIDS database. Relative risks for ever use of marijuana were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Marijuana use in a prepaid health care-based study cohort had little effect on non-AIDS mortality in men and on total mortality in women. PMID:9146436

Risk factors for early infant mortality in Sarlahi district, Nepal.

PubMed Central

Katz, Joanne; West, Keith P.; Khatry, Subarna K.; Christian, Parul; LeClerq, Steven C.; Pradhan, Elizabeth Kimbrough; Shrestha, Sharada Ram

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Early infant mortality has not declined as rapidly as child mortality in many countries. Identification of risk factors for early infant mortality may help inform the design of intervention strategies. METHODS: Over the period 1994-97, 15,469 live-born, singleton infants in rural Nepal were followed to 24 weeks of age to identify risk factors for mortality within 0-7 days, 8-28 days, and 4-24 weeks after the birth. FINDINGS: In multivariate models, maternal and paternal education reduced mortality between 4 and 24 weeks only: odds ratios (OR) 0.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12-0.66) and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.44-0.88), respectively. Miscarriage in the previous pregnancy predicted mortality in the first week of life (OR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.37-2.87), whereas prior child deaths increased the risk of post-neonatal death (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.24-2.75). A larger maternal mid-upper arm circumference reduced the risk of infant death during the first week of life (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.81-0.95). Infants of women who did not receive any tetanus vaccinations during pregnancy or who had severe illness during the third trimester were more likely to die in the neonatal period. Maternal mortality was strongly associated with infant mortality (OR = 6.43, 95% CI = 2.35-17.56 at 0-7 days; OR = 11.73, 95% CI = 3.82-36.00 at 8-28 days; and OR = 51.68, 95% CI = 20.26-131.80 at 4-24 weeks). CONCLUSION: Risk factors for early infant mortality varied with the age of the infant. Factors amenable to intervention included efforts aimed at maternal morbidity and mortality and increased arm circumference during pregnancy. PMID:14758431

Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2008-01-01

For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial factors are likely to become increasingly important. In general, models that fail to account for spatial pattern are at risk of failure as conditions change.

Impact of grouping complications on mortality in traumatic brain injury: A nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Ho, Chung-Han; Liang, Fu-Wen; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Chio, Chung-Ching; Kuo, Jinn-Rung

2018-01-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an important health issue with high mortality. Various complications of physiological and cognitive impairment may result in disability or death after TBI. Grouping of these complications could be treated as integrated post-TBI syndromes. To improve risk estimation, grouping TBI complications should be investigated, to better predict TBI mortality. This study aimed to estimate mortality risk based on grouping of complications among TBI patients. Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database was used in this study. TBI was defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes: 801-804 and 850-854. The association rule data mining method was used to analyze coexisting complications after TBI. The mortality risk of post-TBI complication sets with the potential risk factors was estimated using Cox regression. A total 139,254 TBI patients were enrolled in this study. Intracerebral hemorrhage was the most common complication among TBI patients. After frequent item set mining, the most common post-TBI grouping of complications comprised pneumonia caused by acute respiratory failure (ARF) and urinary tract infection, with mortality risk 1.55 (95% C.I.: 1.51-1.60), compared with those without the selected combinations. TBI patients with the combined combinations have high mortality risk, especially those aged <20 years with septicemia, pneumonia, and ARF (HR: 4.95, 95% C.I.: 3.55-6.88). We used post-TBI complication sets to estimate mortality risk among TBI patients. According to the combinations determined by mining, especially the combination of septicemia with pneumonia and ARF, TBI patients have a 1.73-fold increased mortality risk, after controlling for potential demographic and clinical confounders. TBI patients aged<20 years with each combination of complications also have increased mortality risk. These results could provide physicians and caregivers with important information to increase their awareness about sequences of clinical syndromes among TBI patients, to prevent possible deaths among these patients.

Pre- and Postdiagnosis Physical Activity, Television Viewing, and Mortality Among Patients With Colorectal Cancer in the National Institutes of Health–AARP Diet and Health Study

PubMed Central

Arem, Hannah; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Engels, Eric A.; Alfano, Catherine M.; Hollenbeck, Albert; Park, Yikyung; Matthews, Charles E.

2015-01-01

Purpose Physical inactivity has been associated with higher mortality risk among survivors of colorectal cancer (CRC), but the independent effects of pre- versus postdiagnosis activity are unclear, and the association between watching television (TV) and mortality in survivors of CRC is previously undefined. Methods We analyzed the associations between prediagnosis (n = 3,797) and postdiagnosis (n = 1,759) leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and TV watching and overall and disease-specific mortality among patients with CRC. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs, adjusting for known mortality risk factors. Results Comparing survivors of CRC reporting more than 7 hours per week (h/wk) of prediagnosis LTPA with those reporting no LTPA, we found a 20% lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.95; P for trend = .021). Postdiagnosis LTPA of ≥ 7 h/wk, compared with none, was associated with a 31% lower all-cause mortality risk (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.98; P for trend = .006), independent of prediagnosis activity. Compared with 0 to 2 TV hours per day (h/d) before diagnosis, those reporting ≥ 5 h/d of TV before diagnosis had a 22% increased all-cause mortality risk (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.41; P trend = .002), and more postdiagnosis TV watching was associated with a nonsignificant 25% increase in all-cause mortality risk (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.67; P for trend = .126). Conclusion LTPA was inversely associated with all-cause mortality, whereas more TV watching was associated with increased mortality risk. For both LTPA and TV watching, postdiagnosis measures independently explained the association with mortality. Clinicians should promote both minimizing TV time and increasing physical activity for longevity among survivors of CRC, regardless of previous behaviors. PMID:25488967

Effects of past and recent blood pressure and cholesterol level on coronary heart disease and stroke mortality, accounting for measurement error.

PubMed

Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Lanti, Mariapaola; Menotti, Alessandro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Tolonen, Hanna; Nissinen, Aulikki; Nedeljkovic, Srecko; Kafatos, Anthony; Kromhout, Daan

2007-02-15

The authors aimed to quantify the effects of current systolic blood pressure (SBP) and serum total cholesterol on the risk of mortality in comparison with SBP or serum cholesterol 25 years previously, taking measurement error into account. The authors reanalyzed 35-year follow-up data on mortality due to coronary heart disease and stroke among subjects aged 65 years or more from nine cohorts of the Seven Countries Study. The two-step method of Tsiatis et al. (J Am Stat Assoc 1995;90:27-37) was used to adjust for regression dilution bias, and results were compared with those obtained using more commonly applied methods of adjustment for regression dilution bias. It was found that the commonly used univariate adjustment for regression dilution bias overestimates the effects of both SBP and cholesterol compared with multivariate methods. Also, the two-step method makes better use of the information available, resulting in smaller confidence intervals. Results comparing recent and past exposure indicated that past SBP is more important than recent SBP in terms of its effect on coronary heart disease mortality, while both recent and past values seem to be important for effects of cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality and effects of SBP on stroke mortality. Associations between serum cholesterol concentration and risk of stroke mortality are weak.

Redo surgery risk in patients with cardiac prosthetic valve dysfunction

PubMed Central

Maciejewski, Marek; Piestrzeniewicz, Katarzyna; Bielecka-Dąbrowa, Agata; Piechowiak, Monika; Jaszewski, Ryszard

2011-01-01

Introduction The aim of the study was to analyse the risk factors of early and late mortality in patients undergoing the first reoperation for prosthetic valve dysfunction. Material and methods A retrospective observational study was performed in 194 consecutive patients (M = 75, F = 119; mean age 53.2 ±11 years) with a mechanical prosthetic valve (n = 103 cases; 53%) or bioprosthesis (91; 47%). Univariate and multivariate Cox statistical analysis was performed to determine risk factors of early and late mortality. Results The overall early mortality was 18.6%: 31.4% in patients with symptoms of NYHA functional class III-IV and 3.4% in pts in NYHA class I-II. Multivariate analysis identified symptoms of NYHA class III-IV and endocarditis as independent predictors of early mortality. The overall late mortality (> 30 days) was 8.2% (0.62% year/patient). Multivariate analysis identified age at the time of reoperation as a strong independent predictor of late mortality. Conclusions Reoperation in patients with prosthetic valves, performed urgently, especially in patients with symptoms of NYHA class III-IV or in the case of endocarditis, bears a high mortality rate. Risk of planned reoperation, mostly in patients with symptoms of NYHA class I-II, does not differ from the risk of the first operation. PMID:22291767

Diabetic status and the relation of the three domains of glycemic control to mortality in critically ill patients: an international multicenter cohort study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and increased glycemic variability have each been independently associated with increased risk of mortality in critically ill patients. The role of diabetic status on modulating the relation of these three domains of glycemic control with mortality remains uncertain. The purpose of this investigation was to determine how diabetic status affects the relation of hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and increased glycemic variability with the risk of mortality in critically ill patients. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data involving 44,964 patients admitted to 23 intensive care units (ICUs) from nine countries, between February 2001 and May 2012. We analyzed mean blood glucose concentration (BG), coefficient of variation (CV), and minimal BG and created multivariable models to analyze their independent association with mortality. Patients were stratified according to the diagnosis of diabetes. Results Among patients without diabetes, mean BG bands between 80 and 140 mg/dl were independently associated with decreased risk of mortality, and mean BG bands >140 mg/dl, with increased risk of mortality. Among patients with diabetes, mean BG from 80 to 110 mg/dl was associated with increased risk of mortality and mean BG from 110 to 180 mg/dl with decreased risk of mortality. An effect of center was noted on the relation between mean BG and mortality. Hypoglycemia, defined as minimum BG <70 mg/dl, was independently associated with increased risk of mortality among patients with and without diabetes and increased glycemic variability, defined as CV >20%, was independently associated with increased risk of mortality only among patients without diabetes. Derangements of more than one domain of glycemic control had a cumulative association with mortality, especially for patients without diabetes. Conclusions Although hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and increased glycemic variability is each independently associated with mortality in critically ill patients, diabetic status modulates these relations in clinically important ways. Our findings suggest that patients with diabetes may benefit from higher glucose target ranges than will those without diabetes. Additionally, hypoglycemia is independently associated with increased risk of mortality regardless of the patient's diabetic status, and increased glycemic variability is independently associated with increased risk of mortality among patients without diabetes. See related commentary by Krinsley, http://ccforum.com/content/17/2/131 See related commentary by Finfer and Billot, http://ccforum.com/content/17/2/134 PMID:23452622

Methods to Estimate Acclimatization to Urban Heat Island Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality

PubMed Central

Milojevic, Ai; Armstrong, Ben G.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bohnenstengel, Sylvia I.; Barratt, Benjamin; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-01-01

Background: Investigators have examined whether heat mortality risk is increased in neighborhoods subject to the urban heat island (UHI) effect but have not identified degrees of difference in susceptibility to heat and cold between cool and hot areas, which we call acclimatization to the UHI. Objectives: We developed methods to examine and quantify the degree of acclimatization to heat- and cold-related mortality in relation to UHI anomalies and applied these methods to London, UK. Methods: Case–crossover analyses were undertaken on 1993–2006 mortality data from London UHI decile groups defined by anomalies from the London average of modeled air temperature at a 1-km grid resolution. We estimated how UHI anomalies modified excess mortality on cold and hot days for London overall and displaced a fixed-shape temperature-mortality function (“shifted spline” model). We also compared the observed associations with those expected under no or full acclimatization to the UHI. Results: The relative risk of death on hot versus normal days differed very little across UHI decile groups. A 1°C UHI anomaly multiplied the risk of heat death by 1.004 (95% CI: 0.950, 1.061) (interaction rate ratio) compared with the expected value of 1.070 (1.057, 1.082) if there were no acclimatization. The corresponding UHI interaction for cold was 1.020 (0.979, 1.063) versus 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) (actual versus expected under no acclimatization, respectively). Fitted splines for heat shifted little across UHI decile groups, again suggesting acclimatization. For cold, the splines shifted somewhat in the direction of no acclimatization, but did not exclude acclimatization. Conclusions: We have proposed two analytical methods for estimating the degree of acclimatization to the heat- and cold-related mortality burdens associated with UHIs. The results for London suggest relatively complete acclimatization to the UHI effect on summer heat–related mortality, but less clear evidence for cold–related mortality. Citation: Milojevic A, Armstrong BG, Gasparrini A, Bohnenstengel SI, Barratt B, Wilkinson P. 2016. Methods to estimate acclimatization to urban heat island effects on heat- and cold-related mortality. Environ Health Perspect 124:1016–1022; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510109 PMID:26859738

Urinary Sodium Concentration Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in a Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Population

PubMed Central

Gand, Elise; Ragot, Stéphanie; Bankir, Lise; Piguel, Xavier; Fumeron, Frédéric; Halimi, Jean-Michel; Marechaud, Richard; Roussel, Ronan; Hadjadj, Samy; Study group, SURDIAGENE

2017-01-01

Objective. Sodium intake is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. However, no study has specifically reported an association between cardiovascular mortality and urinary sodium concentration (UNa). We examined the association of UNa with mortality in a cohort of type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. Methods. Patients were followed for all-cause death and cardiovascular death. Baseline UNa was measured from second morning spot urinary sample. We used Cox proportional hazard models to identify independent predictors of mortality. Improvement in prediction of mortality by the addition of UNa to a model including known risk factors was assessed by the relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI) index. Results. Participants (n = 1,439) were followed for a median of 5.7 years, during which 254 cardiovascular deaths and 429 all-cause deaths were recorded. UNa independently predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. An increase of one standard deviation of UNa was associated with a decrease of 21% of all-cause mortality and 22% of cardiovascular mortality. UNa improved all-cause and cardiovascular mortality prediction beyond identified risk factors (rIDI = 2.8%, P = 0.04 and rIDI = 4.6%, P = 0.02, resp.). Conclusions. In T2D, UNa was an independent predictor of mortality (low concentration is associated with increased risk) and improved modestly its prediction in addition to traditional risk factors. PMID:28255559

Risk factors of mortality in patients with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii bacteremia.

PubMed

Liu, Chang-Pan; Shih, Shou-Chuan; Wang, Nai-Yu; Wu, Alice Y; Sun, Fang-Ju; Chow, Shan-Fan; Chen, Te-Li; Yan, Tsong-Rong

2016-12-01

Identification of risks of mortality for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB), with early implementation of an appropriate therapy, is crucial for the patients' outcome. The aim of this study was to survey mortality risk factors in 182 patients with CRAB bacteremia in a medical center in Taiwan. A total of 182 isolates of CRAB bacteremia were collected from 2009 to 2012 in Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan These isolates were identified by using the genotypic method. Risk of attributable mortality analysis was carried out with a Cox proportional hazards model. The 182 CRAB isolates belonged to 38 different pulsotypes. The attributable mortality rate of the 182 patients was 58.24%. The risk factors for attributable mortality included intensive care unit stay [hazard ratio (HR): 2.27; p = 0.011], an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of >20 (HR: 2.19; p < 0.001), respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia (HR: 3.40; p < 0.001), and previous use of ceftriaxone (HR: 2.51; p = 0.011). The appropriateness of antimicrobial therapy was 18.87% (20/106) in the mortality group versus 88.16% (67/76) in the survivor group (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of CRAB to colistin was 100% and to tigecycline was 40.11%. The risk factors for mortality for CRAB included intensive care unit stay, a high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia, and previous use of ceftriaxone. Early implementation of an antimicrobial agent that had the highest in vitro activity against CRAB in patients at risk of CRAB bacteremia and high mortality may improve their outcome. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Reaction Time and Mortality from the Major Causes of Death: The NHANES-III Study

PubMed Central

Hagger-Johnson, Gareth; Deary, Ian J.; Davies, Carolyn A.; Weiss, Alexander; Batty, G. David

2014-01-01

Objective Studies examining the relation of information processing speed, as measured by reaction time, with mortality are scarce. We explored these associations in a representative sample of the US population. Methods Participants were 5,134 adults (2,342 men) aged 20–59 years from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988–94). Results Adjusted for age, sex, and ethnic minority status, a 1 SD slower reaction time was associated with a raised risk of mortality from all-causes (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.12, 1.39) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.17, 1.58). Having 1 SD more variable reaction time was also associated with greater risk of all-cause (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.19, 1.55) and CVD (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.33, 1.70) mortality. No associations were observed for cancer mortality. The magnitude of the relationships was comparable in size to established risk factors in this dataset, such as smoking. Interpretation Alongside better-established risk factors, reaction time is associated with increased risk of premature death and cardiovascular disease. It is a candidate risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. PMID:24489645

The effect of poverty, social inequity, and maternal education on infant mortality in Nicaragua, 1988-1993.

PubMed Central

Peña, R; Wall, S; Persson, L A

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the effect of poverty and social inequity on infant mortality risks in Nicaragua from 1988 to 1993 and the preventive role of maternal education. METHODS: A cohort analysis of infant survival, based on reproductive histories of a representative sample of 10,867 women aged 15 to 49 years in León, Nicaragua, was conducted. A total of 7073 infants were studied; 342 deaths occurred during 6394 infant-years of follow-up. Outcome measures were infant mortality rate (IMR) and relative mortality risks for different groups. RESULTS: IMR was 50 per 1000 live births. Poverty, expressed as unsatisfied basic needs (UBN) of the household, increased the risk of infant death (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 1.49; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15, 1.92). Social inequity, expressed as the contrast between the household UBN and the predominant UBN of the neighborhood, further increased the risk (adjusted RR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.12, 2.71). A protective effect of the mother's educational level was seen only in poor households. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from absolute level of poverty, social inequity may be an independent risk factor for infant mortality in a low-income country. In poor households, female education may contribute to preventing infant mortality. PMID:10630139

Co-morbidities associated with influenza-attributed mortality, 1994-2000, Canada.

PubMed

Schanzer, Dena L; Langley, Joanne M; Tam, Theresa W S

2008-08-26

The elderly and persons with specific chronic conditions are known to face elevated morbidity and mortality risks resulting from an influenza infection, and hence are routinely recommended for annual influenza vaccination. However, risk-specific mortality rates have not been established. We estimated age-specific influenza-attributable mortality rates stratified by the presence of chronic conditions and type of residence based on deaths of persons who were admitted to hospital with a respiratory complication captured in our national database. The majority of patients had chronic heart or respiratory conditions (80%) and were admitted from the community (80%). Influenza-attributable mortality rates clearly increase with age for all risk groups. Our influenza-specific estimates identified higher risk ratios for chronic lung or heart disease than have been suggested by other methods. These estimates identify groups most in need of improved vaccines and for whom the use of additional strategies, such as immunization of household contacts or caregivers should be considered.

Telomere length and mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study

PubMed Central

Pusceddu, Irene; Kleber, Marcus; Delgado, Graciela; Herrmann, Wolfgang; März, Winfried; Herrmann, Markus

2018-01-01

Introduction Short telomeres have been associated with adverse lifestyle factors, cardiovascular risk factors and age-related diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction, atherosclerosis, hypertension, diabetes, and also with mortality. However, previous studies report conflicting results. Objectives The aim of the present study has been to investigate the involvement of telomere length in all-cause and CVD mortality in subjects hospitalized for diagnostic coronary angiography of the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. Methods Relative telomere length (RTL) was measured with a Q-PCR based method in 3,316 participants of the LURIC study. Age-corrected RTL was calculated as the ratio between RTL and age. Median follow-up was 9.9 years. Cox regression and Kaplan-Maier analyses were performed to evaluate the role of RTL for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results RTL correlated negatively with age (r = -0.09; p<0.001). In surviving patients the correlation between age and RTL was statistically significant (r = -0.088; p<0.001), but not in patients who died during follow-up (r = -0.043; p = 0.20). Patients in quartiles 2–4 of RTL had a lower hazard ratio for all-cause mortality (HR:0.822; 95%CI 0.712–0.915; p = 0.008) and CVD-mortality (HR:0.836; 95%CI 0.722–0.969; p = 0.017) when compared to those in the 1st quartile. Adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors did not change this result, however additional adjustment for age attenuated this effect. Patients in the 4th quartile of age-corrected RTL compared to those in the 1st quartile had a lower hazard ratio for all-cause mortality, even with adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions The present study supports the hypothesis that short telomere length increases the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. Age appears to be an important co-variate that explains a substantial fraction of this effect. It remains unclear whether short telomeres contribute directly to the increase in mortality or if they are simply a surrogate marker for other adverse processes of aging. PMID:29920523

The association of substituting carbohydrates with total fat and different types of fatty acids with mortality and weight change among diabetes patients.

PubMed

Campmans-Kuijpers, Marjo J; Sluijs, Ivonne; Nöthlings, Ute; Freisling, Heinz; Overvad, Kim; Boeing, Heiner; Masala, Giovanna; Panico, Salvatore; Tumino, Rosario; Sieri, Sabina; Johansson, Ingegerd; Winkvist, Anna; Katzke, Verena A; Kuehn, Tilman; Nilsson, Peter M; Halkjær, Jytte; Tjønneland, Anne; Spijkerman, Annemieke M; Arriola, Larraitz; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Barricarte, Aurelio; May, Anne M; Beulens, Joline W

2016-10-01

Substitution of carbohydrates with fat in a diet for type 2 diabetes patients is still debated. This study aimed to investigate the association between dietary carbohydrate intake and isocaloric substitution with (i) total fat, (ii) saturated fatty acids (SFA), (iii) mono-unsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and (iv) poly-unsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) with all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality risk and 5-year weight change in patients with type 2 diabetes. The study included 6192 patients with type 2 diabetes from 15 cohorts of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at recruitment with country-specific food-frequency questionnaires. Cox and linear regression were used to estimate the associations with (CVD) mortality and weight change, adjusting for confounders and using different methods to adjust for energy intake. After a mean follow-up of 9.2 y ± SD 2.3 y, 791 (13%) participants had died, of which 268 (4%) due to CVD. Substituting 10 g or 5 energy% of carbohydrates by total fat was associated with a higher all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.07 [1.02-1.13]), or SFAs (HR 1.25 [1.11-1.40]) and a lower risk when replaced by MUFAs (HR 0.89 [0.77-1.02]). When carbohydrates were substituted with SFAs (HR 1.22 [1.00-1.49]) or PUFAs (HR 1.29 [1.02-1.63]) CVD mortality risk increased. The 5-year weight was lower when carbohydrates were substituted with total fat or MUFAs. These results were consistent over different energy adjustment methods. In diabetes patients, substitution of carbohydrates with SFAs was associated with a higher (CVD) mortality risk and substitution by total fat was associated with a higher all-cause mortality risk. Substitution of carbohydrates with MUFAs may be associated with lower mortality risk and weight reduction. Instead of promoting replacement of carbohydrates by total fat, dietary guideline should continue focusing on replacement by fat-subtypes; especially SFAs by MUFAs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

PubMed

Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

2015-04-01

We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

CD8+ T cells and Risk for Bacterial Pneumonia and All-Cause Mortality Among HIV-infected Women

PubMed Central

Gohil, Shruti; Heo, Moonseong; Schoenbaum, Ellie; Celentano, David; Pirofski, Liise-anne

2012-01-01

Background Bacterial pneumonia risk is disproportionately high among those infected with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). This risk is present across all CD4+ T cell levels (TCL), suggesting additional factors govern susceptibility. This study examines CD8+ TCL and risk for HIV-associated bacterial pneumonia and all-cause mortality. Methods Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were obtained for 885 HIV-infected (HIV+) women enrolled in the HIV Epidemiologic Research Study (HERS). Bacterial pneumonia cases were identified using clinical, microbiologic, and radiographic criteria. CD8+ TCLs were assessed at 6-month intervals. Statistical methods included Cox proportional hazards regression modeling and covariate-adjusted survival estimates. Results Relative to a referent CD8+ TCL 401–800 cells/mm3, risk for bacterial pneumonia was significantly higher when CD8+ TCLs were ≤ 400 (hazard ratio 1.65, p=0.017, 95% CI 1.10–2.49), after adjusting for age, CD4+ TCL, viral load, and antiretroviral use. There was also a significantly higher risk of death when CD8+ TCLs were ≤ 400 cells/mm3 (hazard ratio 1.45, p=0.04, 95% CI 1.02–2.06). Covariate-adjusted survival estimates revealed shorter time to pneumonia and death in this CD8+ TCL category and the overall association of the categorized CD8+TCL with bacterial pneumonia and all-cause mortality were each statistically significant (p=0.017 and p<0.0001, respectively). Conclusions CD8+ TCL ≤ 400 cells/mm3 was associated with increased risk for pneumonia and all-cause mortality in HIV-infected women in the HERS Cohort, suggesting that CD8+ TCL could serve as an adjunctive biomarker of pneumonia risk and mortality in HIV-infected individuals. PMID:22334070

Leisure-Time Running Reduces All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality Risk

PubMed Central

Lee, Duck-chul; Pate, Russell R.; Lavie, Carl J.; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S.; Blair, Steven N.

2014-01-01

Background Although running is a popular leisure-time physical activity, little is known about the long-term effects of running on mortality. The dose-response relations between running, as well as the change in running behaviors over time and mortality remain uncertain. Objectives We examined the associations of running with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks in 55,137 adults, aged 18 to 100 years (mean age, 44). Methods Running was assessed on the medical history questionnaire by leisure-time activity. Results During a mean follow-up of 15 years, 3,413 all-cause and 1,217 cardiovascular deaths occurred. Approximately, 24% of adults participated in running in this population. Compared with non-runners, runners had 30% and 45% lower adjusted risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, with a 3-year life expectancy benefit. In dose-response analyses, the mortality benefits in runners were similar across quintiles of running time, distance, frequency, amount, and speed, compared with non-runners. Weekly running even <51 minutes, <6 miles, 1-2 times, <506 metabolic equivalent-minutes, or <6 mph was sufficient to reduce risk of mortality, compared with not running. In the analyses of change in running behaviors and mortality, persistent runners had the most significant benefits with 29% and 50% lower risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, compared with never-runners. Conclusions Running, even 5-10 minutes per day and slow speeds <6 mph, is associated with markedly reduced risks of death from all causes and cardiovascular disease. This study may motivate healthy but sedentary individuals to begin and continue running for substantial and attainable mortality benefits. PMID:25082581

How Can Inequalities in Mortality Be Reduced? A Quantitative Analysis of 6 Risk Factors in 21 European Populations

PubMed Central

Eikemo, Terje A.; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Kulik, Margarete C.; Kulhánová, Ivana; Toch-Marquardt, Marlen; Menvielle, Gwenn; Looman, Caspar; Jasilionis, Domantas; Martikainen, Pekka; Lundberg, Olle; Mackenbach, Johan P.

2014-01-01

Background Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are one of the greatest challenges for health policy in all European countries, but the potential for reducing these inequalities is unclear. We therefore quantified the impact of equalizing the distribution of six risk factors for mortality: smoking, overweight, lack of physical exercise, lack of social participation, low income, and economic inactivity. Methods We collected and harmonized data on mortality and risk factors by educational level for 21 European populations in the early 2000s. The impact of the risk factors on mortality in each educational group was determined using Population Attributable Fractions. We estimated the impact on inequalities in mortality of two scenarios: a theoretical upward levelling scenario in which inequalities in the risk factor were completely eliminated, and a more realistic best practice scenario, in which inequalities in the risk factor were reduced to those seen in the country with the smallest inequalities for that risk factor. Findings In general, upward levelling of inequalities in smoking, low income and economic inactivity hold the greatest potential for reducing inequalities in mortality. While the importance of low income is similar across Europe, smoking is more important in the North and East, and overweight in the South. On the basis of best practice scenarios the potential for reducing inequalities in mortality is often smaller, but still substantial in many countries for smoking and physical inactivity. Interpretation Theoretically, there is a great potential for reducing inequalities in mortality in most European countries, for example by equity-oriented tobacco control policies, income redistribution and employment policies. Although it is necessary to achieve substantial degrees of upward levelling to make a notable difference for inequalities in mortality, the existence of best practice countries with more favourable distributions for some of these risk factors suggests that this is feasible. PMID:25369287

Prospective association between phobic anxiety and cardiac mortality in individuals with coronary heart disease

PubMed Central

Watkins, Lana L.; Blumenthal, James A.; Babyak, Michael A.; Davidson, Jonathan R.T.; McCants, Charles B.; O’Connor, Christopher; Sketch, Michael H.

2010-01-01

Objective Previous findings suggest that phobic anxiety may pose increased risk of cardiac mortality in medically healthy cohorts. The present study evaluated whether phobic anxiety is associated with increased risk of cardiac mortality in individuals with established coronary heart disease (CHD) and examined the role of reduced heart rate variability (HRV) in mediating this risk. Methods We performed a prospective cohort study in 947 CHD patients recruited during hospitalization for coronary angiography. At baseline, supine recordings of heart rate for HRV were collected, and participants completed the Crown-Crisp phobic anxiety scale. Fatal cardiac events were identified over an average period of 3 years. Results Female CHD patients reported significantly elevated levels of phobic anxiety when compared with male patients (p <.001) and survival analysis showed an interaction between gender and phobic anxiety in the prediction of cardiac mortality (p =.058) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) (p=.03). In women, phobic anxiety was associated with a 1.6-fold increased risk of cardiac mortality (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.15–2.11; p=.004) and a 2.0-fold increased risk of SCD (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.16–3.52; p=.01) and was unassociated with increased mortality risk in men (p=.56). Phobic anxiety was weakly associated with reduced high frequency HRV in female patients (r=−.14, p=.02), but reduced HRV did not alter the association between phobic anxiety on mortality. Conclusions Phobic anxiety levels are high in women with CHD and may be a risk factor for cardiac-related mortality in women diagnosed with CHD. Reduced HRV measured during rest does not appear to mediate phobic anxiety-related risk. PMID:20639390

Comparing the mortality risks of nursing professionals with diabetes and general patients with diabetes: a nationwide matched cohort study.

PubMed

Huang, Hsiu-Ling; Kung, Chuan-Yu; Pan, Cheng-Chin; Kung, Pei-Tseng; Wang, Shun-Mu; Chou, Wen-Yu; Tsai, Wen-Chen

2016-10-06

Nursing professionals have received comprehensive medical education and training. However, whether these medical professionals exhibit positive patient care attitudes and behaviors and thus reduce mortality risks when they themselves are diagnosed with chronic diseases is worth exploring. This study compared the mortality risks of female nurses and general patients with diabetes and elucidated factors that caused this difference. A total of 510,058 female patients newly diagnosed with diabetes between 1998 and 2006 as recorded in the National Health Insurance Research Database were the participants in this study. Nurses with diabetes and general population with diabetes were matched with propensity score method in a 1:10 ratio. The participants were tracked from the date of diagnosis to 2009. The Cox proportional hazards model was utilized to compare the mortality risks in the two groups. Nurses were newly diagnosed with diabetes at a younger age compared with the general public (42.01 ± 12.03 y vs. 59.29 ± 13.11 y). Nevertheless, the matching results showed that nurses had lower mortality risks (HR: 0.53, 95 % CI: 0.38-0.74) and nurses with diabetes in the < 35 and 35-44 age groups exhibited significantly lower mortality risks compared with general patients (HR: 0.23 and 0.36). A further analysis indicated that the factors that influenced the mortality risks of nurses with diabetes included age, catastrophic illnesses, and the severity of diabetes complications. Nurses with diabetes exhibited lower mortality risks possibly because they had received comprehensive medical education and training, may had more knowledge regarding chronic disease control and change their lifestyles. The results can serve as a reference for developing heath education, and for preventing occupational hazards in nurses.

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

2011-12-01

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Lifestyle Risk Factors Predict Disability and Death in Healthy Aging Adults

PubMed Central

Chakravarty, Eliza F.; Hubert, Helen B.; Krishnan, Eswar; Bruce, Bonnie B.; Lingala, Vijaya B.; Fries, James F.

2011-01-01

Background Associations between modifiable health risk factors during middle age with disability and mortality in later life are critical to maximizing longevity while preserving function. Positive health effects of maintaining normal weight, routine exercise, and non-smoking are known for the short and intermediate term. We studied the effects of these risk factors into advanced age. Methods A cohort of 2,327 college alumnae ≥60 years was followed annually (1986–2005) by questionnaires addressing health risk factors, history, and Health Assessment Questionnaire disability (HAQ-DI). Mortality data were ascertained from the National Death Index. Low, medium, and high risk groups were created based upon the number (0, 1, ≥2) of health risk factors (overweight, smoking, inactivity) at baseline. Disability and mortality for each group were estimated from unadjusted data and regression analyses. Multivariable survival analyses estimated time to disability or death. Results Medium and high-risk groups had higher disability than the low risk group throughout the study (p<0.001). Low-risk subjects had onset of moderate disability delayed 8.3 years compared with high-risk. Mortality rates were higher in the high risk group (384 versus 247 per 10,000 person-years). Multivariable survival analyses showed the number of risk factors to be associated with cumulative disability and increased mortality. Conclusions Seniors with fewer behavioral risk factors during middle age have lower disability and improved survival. These data document that the associations of lifestyle risk factors upon health continue into the ninth decade. PMID:22269623

Frequency of nut consumption and mortality risk in the PREDIMED nutrition intervention trial

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Prospective studies in non-Mediterranean populations have consistently related increasing nut consumption to lower coronary heart disease mortality. A small protective effect on all-cause and cancer mortality has also been suggested. To examine the association between frequency of nut consumption and mortality in individuals at high cardiovascular risk from Spain, a Mediterranean country with a relatively high average nut intake per person. Methods We evaluated 7,216 men and women aged 55 to 80 years randomized to 1 of 3 interventions (Mediterranean diets supplemented with nuts or olive oil and control diet) in the PREDIMED (‘PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea’) study. Nut consumption was assessed at baseline and mortality was ascertained by medical records and linkage to the National Death Index. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression and multivariable analyses with generalized estimating equation models were used to assess the association between yearly repeated measurements of nut consumption and mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 323 total deaths, 81 cardiovascular deaths and 130 cancer deaths occurred. Nut consumption was associated with a significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality (P for trend <0.05, all). Compared to non-consumers, subjects consuming nuts >3 servings/week (32% of the cohort) had a 39% lower mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR) 0.61; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.83). A similar protective effect against cardiovascular and cancer mortality was observed. Participants allocated to the Mediterranean diet with nuts group who consumed nuts >3 servings/week at baseline had the lowest total mortality risk (HR 0.37; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.66). Conclusions Increased frequency of nut consumption was associated with a significantly reduced risk of mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Please see related commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/11/165. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov. International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 35739639. Registration date: 5 October 2005. PMID:23866098

Type 2 Diabetes Genetic Predisposition, Obesity, and All-Cause Mortality Risk in the U.S.: A Multiethnic Analysis

PubMed Central

Leong, Aaron; Porneala, Bianca; Dupuis, Josée; Florez, Jose C.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with increased mortality in ethnically diverse populations, although the extent to which this association is genetically determined is unknown. We sought to determine whether T2D-related genetic variants predicted all-cause mortality, even after accounting for BMI, in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We modeled mortality risk using a genetic risk score (GRS) from a weighted sum of risk alleles at 38 T2D-related single nucleotide polymorphisms. In age-, sex-, and BMI-adjusted logistic regression models, accounting for the complex survey design, we tested the association with mortality in 6,501 participants. We repeated the analysis within ethnicities (2,528 non-Hispanic white [NHW], 1,979 non-Hispanic black [NHB], and 1,994 Mexican American [MA]) and within BMI categories (<25, 25–30, and ≥30 kg/m2). Significance was set at P < 0.05. RESULTS Over 17 years, 1,556 participants died. GRS was associated with mortality risk (OR 1.04 [95% CI 1.00–1.07] per T2D-associated risk allele, P = 0.05). Within ethnicities, GRS was positively associated with mortality risk in NHW and NHB, but not in MA (0.95 [0.90–1.01], P = 0.07). The negative trend in MA was largely driven by those with BMI <25 kg/m2 (0.91 [0.82–1.00]). In NHW, the positive association was strongest among those with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 (1.07 [1.02–1.12]). CONCLUSIONS In the U.S., a higher T2D genetic risk was associated with increased mortality risk, especially among obese NHW. The underlying genetic basis for mortality likely involves complex interactions with factors related to ethnicity, T2D, and body weight. PMID:26884474

[Gender and age dependent mortality from nervous diseases in Azerbaijan].

PubMed

Mamedbeyli, A K

2015-01-01

To assess age- and sex-related changes in the mortality from nervous diseases at the population level. Methods of descriptive statistics and analysis of qualitative traits were applied. We analyzed 13580 medical certificates of cause of death from nervous diseases (all classes of ICD-10). The mortality rate varied with age, the main trend of which was the dynamic growth. Age-specific mortality rates for men and women differed from each other: in most ages (20-24, 30-34, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 65-69), the likelihood of mortality was higher in men, and at the age of 5-9, 15-19, 60-64, 70 and more years in women. After the standardization of gender differences by age, the mortality risk of nervous illnesses disappeared (146.74 and 144.16 per 100 thousand for men and women, respectively).  There were significant differences in the proportion of nervous diseases of all-cause mortality among the population in the groups stratified by age and sex. It is believed that situational factors is a cause of actual prevailing of gender age- and sex-related mortality risks. Gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are characterized by the multidirectional dynamics of likelihood of mortality and specific weight of nervous diseases among all causes of mortality. The actual gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are generally caused by situational factors (different age structure and unequal level of the general mortality among male and female population) which disappear after standardization.

Mortality among subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma at two respiratory disease clinics in Ontario

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, Murray M; Chapman, Kenneth R; McIvor, R Andrew; Sears, Malcolm R

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common; however, mortality rates among individuals with these diseases are not well studied in North America. OBJECTIVE: To investigate mortality rates and risk factors for premature death among subjects with COPD. METHODS: Subjects were identified from the lung function testing databases of two academic respiratory disease clinics in Hamilton and Toronto, Ontario. Mortality was ascertained by linkage to the Ontario mortality registry between 1992 and 2002, inclusive. Standardized mortality ratios were computed. Poisson regression of standardized mortality ratios and proportional hazards regression were performed to examine the multivariate effect of risk factors on the standardized mortality ratios and mortality hazards. RESULTS: Compared with the Ontario population, all-cause mortality was approximately doubled among subjects with COPD, but was lower than expected among subjects with asthma. The risk of mortality in patients with COPD was related to cigarette smoking, to the presence of comorbid conditons of ischemic heart disease and diabetes, and to Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease severity scores. Individuals living closer to traffic sources showed an elevated risk of death compared with those who lived further away from traffic sources. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates among subjects diagnosed with COPD were substantially elevated. There were several deaths attributed to asthma among subjects in the present study; however, overall, patients with asthma demonstrated lower mortality rates than the general population. Subjects with COPD need to be managed with attention devoted to both their respiratory disorders and related comorbidities. PMID:22187688

Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Screening Methods and Mortality Data among Hungarian Primary Care Population: Preliminary Results of the First Government-Financed Managed Care Program.

PubMed

Móczár, Csaba; Rurik, Imre

2015-09-01

Besides participation in the primary prevention, screening as secondary prevention is an important requirement for primary care services. The effect of this work is influenced by the characteristics of individual primary care practices and doctors' screening habits, as well as by the regulation of screening processes and available financial resources. Between 1999 and 2009, a managed care program was introduced and carried out in Hungary, financed by the government. This financial support and motivation gave the opportunity to increase the number of screenings. 4,462 patients of 40 primary care practices were screened on the basis of SCORE risk assessment. The results of the screening were compared on the basis of two groups of patients, namely: those who had been pre-screened (pre-screening method) for known risk factors in their medical history (smoking, BMI, age, family cardiovascular history), and those randomly screened. The authors also compared the mortality data of participating primary care practices with the regional and national data. The average score was significantly higher in the pre-screened group of patients, regardless of whether the risk factors were considered one by one or in combination. Mortality was significantly lower in the participating primary practices than had been expected on the basis of the national mortality data. This government-financed program was a big step forward to establish a proper screening method within Hungarian primary care. Performing cardiovascular screening of a selected target group is presumably more appropriate than screening within a randomly selected population. Both methods resulted in a visible improvement in regional mortality data, though it is very likely that with pre-screening a more cost-effective selection for screening may be obtained.

Early-life mortality risks in opposite-sex and same-sex twins: a Danish cohort study of the twin testosterone transfer hypothesis

PubMed Central

Ahrenfeldt, Linda Juel; Larsen, Lisbeth Aagaard; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Skytthe, Axel; Hjelmborg, Jacob v.B.; Möller, Sören; Christensen, Kaare

2017-01-01

Purpose To investigate the twin testosterone transfer (TTT) hypothesis by comparing early-life mortality risks of opposite-sex (OS) and same-sex (SS) twins during the first 15 years of life. Methods We performed a population-based cohort study to compare mortality in OS and SS twins. We included 68,629 live-born Danish twins from 1973 to 2009 identified through the Danish Twin Registry and performed piecewise stratified Cox regression and log-binomial regression. Results Among 1933 deaths, we found significantly higher mortality for twin boys than for twin girls. For both sexes, OS twins had lower mortality than SS twins; the difference persisted for the first year of life for boys and for the first week of life for girls. Conclusions Although the mortality risk for OS boys was in the expected direction according to the TTT hypothesis, the results for OS girls pointed in the opposite direction, providing no clear evidence for the TTT hypothesis. PMID:28024904

Socioeconomic position, health behaviors, and racial disparities in cause-specific infant mortality in Michigan, USA

PubMed Central

El-Sayed, Abdulrahman M.; Finkton, Darryl W.; Paczkowski, Magdalena; Keyes, Katherine M.; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-01

Objectives Studies about racial disparities in infant mortality suggest that racial differences in socioeconomic position (SEP) and maternal risk behaviors explain some, but not all, excess infant mortality among Blacks relative to non-Hispanic Whites. We examined the contribution of these to disparities in specific causes of infant mortality. Methods We analyzed data about 2,087,191 mother–child dyads in Michigan between 1989 and 2005. First, we calculated crude Black–White infant mortality ratios independently and by specific cause of death. Second, we fit multivariable Poisson regression models of infant mortality, overall and by cause, adjusting for SEP and maternal risk behaviors. Third, Crude Black–White mortality ratios were compared to adjusted predicted probability ratios, overall and by specific cause. Results SEP and maternal risk behaviors explained nearly a third of the disparity in infant mortality overall, and over 25% of disparities in several specific causes including homicide, accident, sudden infant death syndrome, and respiratory distress syndrome. However, SEP and maternal risk behaviors had little influence on disparities in other specific causes, such as septicemia and congenital anomalies. Conclusions These findings help focus policy attention toward disparities in those specific causes of infant mortality most amenable to social and behavioral intervention, as well as research attention to disparities in specific causes unexplained by SEP and behavioral differences. PMID:25849882

Identifying and Targeting Mortality Disparities: A Framework for Sub-Saharan Africa Using Adult Mortality Data from South Africa

PubMed Central

Sartorius, Benn; Sartorius, Kurt

2013-01-01

Background Health inequities in developing countries are difficult to eradicate because of limited resources. The neglect of adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a particular concern. Advances in data availability, software and analytic methods have created opportunities to address this challenge and tailor interventions to small areas. This study demonstrates how a generic framework can be applied to guide policy interventions to reduce adult mortality in high risk areas. The framework, therefore, incorporates the spatial clustering of adult mortality, estimates the impact of a range of determinants and quantifies the impact of their removal to ensure optimal returns on scarce resources. Methods Data from a national cross-sectional survey in 2007 were used to illustrate the use of the generic framework for SSA and elsewhere. Adult mortality proportions were analyzed at four administrative levels and spatial analyses were used to identify areas with significant excess mortality. An ecological approach was then used to assess the relationship between mortality “hotspots” and various determinants. Population attributable fractions were calculated to quantify the reduction in mortality as a result of targeted removal of high-impact determinants. Results Overall adult mortality rate was 145 per 10,000. Spatial disaggregation identified a highly non-random pattern and 67 significant high risk local municipalities were identified. The most prominent determinants of adult mortality included HIV antenatal sero-prevalence, low SES and lack of formal marital union status. The removal of the most attributable factors, based on local area prevalence, suggest that overall adult mortality could be potentially reduced by ∼90 deaths per 10,000. Conclusions The innovative use of secondary data and advanced epidemiological techniques can be combined in a generic framework to identify and map mortality to the lowest administration level. The identification of high risk mortality determinants allows health authorities to tailor interventions at local level. This approach can be replicated elsewhere. PMID:23967209

Analysis of underlying and multiple-cause mortality data: the life table methods.

PubMed

Moussa, M A

1987-02-01

The stochastic compartment model concepts are employed to analyse and construct complete and abbreviated total mortality life tables, multiple-decrement life tables for a disease, under the underlying and pattern-of-failure definitions of mortality risk, cause-elimination life tables, cause-elimination effects on saved population through the gain in life expectancy as a consequence of eliminating the mortality risk, cause-delay life tables designed to translate the clinically observed increase in survival time as the population gain in life expectancy that would occur if a treatment protocol was made available to the general population and life tables for disease dependency in multiple-cause data.

Socio-Ecological Risk Factors for Prime-Age Adult Death in Two Coastal Areas of Vietnam

PubMed Central

Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Wierzba, Thomas F.

2014-01-01

Background Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. Methods and Findings The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. Conclusion Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam. PMID:24587031

Morbidity, mortality, and categorization of the risk of perioperative complications in lung cancer patients*

PubMed Central

Stanzani, Fabiana; Paisani, Denise de Moraes; de Oliveira, Anderson; de Souza, Rodrigo Caetano; Perfeito, João Aléssio Juliano; Faresin, Sonia Maria

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine morbidity and mortality rates by risk category in accordance with the American College of Chest Physicians guidelines, to determine what role pulmonary function tests play in this categorization process, and to identify risk factors for perioperative complications (PCs). METHODS: This was a historical cohort study based on preoperative and postoperative data collected for cases of lung cancer diagnosed or suspected between 2001 and 2010. RESULTS: Of the 239 patients evaluated, only 13 (5.4%) were classified as being at high risk of PCs. Predicted postoperative FEV1 (FEV1ppo) was sufficient to define the risk level in 156 patients (65.3%); however, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) was necessary for identifying those at high risk. Lung resection was performed in 145 patients. Overall morbidity and mortality rates were similar to those reported in other studies. However, morbidity and mortality rates for patients at an acceptable risk of PCs were 31.6% and 4.3%, respectively, whereas those for patients at high risk were 83.3% and 33.3%. Advanced age, COPD, lobe resection, and lower FEV1ppo were correlated with PCs. CONCLUSIONS: Although spirometry was sufficient for risk assessment in the majority of the population studied, CPET played a key role in the identification of high-risk patients, among whom the mortality rate was seven times higher than was that observed for those at an acceptable risk of PCs. The risk factors related to PCs coincided with those reported in previous studies. PMID:24626266

Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

PubMed Central

Vilaprinyo, Ester; Gispert, Rosa; Martínez-Alonso, Montserrat; Carles, Misericòrdia; Pla, Roger; Espinàs, Josep-Alfons; Rué, Montserrat

2008-01-01

Background Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia. PMID:19014473

Aprotinin May Increase Mortality in Low and Intermediate Risk but Not in High Risk Cardiac Surgical Patients Compared to Tranexamic Acid and ε-Aminocaproic Acid – A Meta-Analysis of Randomised and Observational Trials of over 30.000 Patients

PubMed Central

Meybohm, Patrick; Herrmann, Eva; Nierhoff, Julia; Zacharowski, Kai

2013-01-01

Background To compare the effect of aprotinin with the effect of lysine analogues (tranexamic acid and ε-aminocaproic acid) on early mortality in three subgroups of patients: low, intermediate and high risk of cardiac surgery. Methods and Findings We performed a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational with the following data sources: Medline, Cochrane Library, and reference lists of identified articles. The primary outcome measure was early (in-hospital/30-day) mortality. The secondary outcome measures were any transfusion of packed red blood cells within 24 hours after surgery, any re-operation for bleeding or massive bleeding, and acute renal dysfunction or failure within the selected cited publications, respectively. Out of 328 search results, 31 studies (15 trials and 16 observational studies) included 33,501 patients. Early mortality was significantly increased after aprotinin vs. lysine analogues with a pooled risk ratio (95% CI) of 1.58 (1.13–2.21), p<0.001 in the low (n = 14,297) and in the intermediate risk subgroup (1.42 (1.09–1.84), p<0.001; n = 14,427), respectively. Contrarily, in the subgroup of high risk patients (n = 4,777), the risk for mortality did not differ significantly between aprotinin and lysine analogues (1.03 (0.67–1.58), p = 0.90). Conclusion Aprotinin may be associated with an increased risk of mortality in low and intermediate risk cardiac surgery, but presumably may has no effect on early mortality in a subgroup of high risk cardiac surgery compared to lysine analogues. Thus, decisions to re-license aprotinin in lower risk patients should critically be debated. In contrast, aprotinin might probably be beneficial in high risk cardiac surgery as it reduces risk of transfusion and bleeding complications. PMID:23483965

Relative Risks of Contributing Factors to Morbidity and Mortality in Adults With Craniopharyngioma on Growth Hormone Replacement.

PubMed

Yuen, Kevin C J; Mattsson, Anders F; Burman, Pia; Erfurth, Eva-Marie; Camacho-Hubner, Cecilia; Fox, Janet L; Verhelst, Johan; Geffner, Mitchell E; Abs, Roger

2018-02-01

In adults, craniopharyngioma (CP) of either childhood-onset (CO-CP) or adult-onset (AO-CP) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but data on the relative risks (RRs) of contributing factors are lacking. To assess the RRs of factors contributing to morbidity and mortality in adults with CO-CP and AO-CP. Data on 1669 patients with CP from KIMS (Pfizer International Metabolic Database) were analyzed using univariate and multiple Poisson and Cox regression methods. When CO-CP and AO-CP groups were combined, history of stroke and hyperlipidemia increased cardiovascular risk, higher body mass index (BMI) and radiotherapy increased cerebrovascular risk, and increased waist circumference increased the risk of developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Compared with patients with CO-CP, patients with AO-CP had a threefold higher risk of tumor recurrence, whereas being female and previous radiotherapy exposure conferred lower risks. Radiotherapy and older age with every 10 years from disease onset conferred a 2.3- to 3.5-fold risk for developing new intracranial tumors, whereas older age, greater and/or increasing BMI, history of stroke, and lower insulinlike growth factor I (IGF-I) standard deviation score measured at last sampling before death were related to increased all-cause mortality. Compared with the general population, adults with CP had 9.3-, 8.1-, and 2.2-fold risks of developing DM, new intracranial tumors, and early death, respectively. Conventional factors that increase the risks of cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases and DM and risks for developing new intracranial tumors contributed to excess morbidity and mortality. In addition, lower serum IGF-I level measured from the last sample before death was inversely associated with mortality risk in patients with CP. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

Consumption of whole grains in relation to mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes

PubMed Central

Li, Bailing; Zhang, Guanxin; Tan, Mengwei; Zhao, Libo; Jin, Lei; Tang, Xiaojun; Jiang, Gengxi; Zhong, Keng

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: To investigate the correlation between consumption of whole grains and the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and diabetes-specific mortality according to a dose–response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Methods: Observational cohort studies, which reported associations between whole grains and the risk of death outcomes, were identified by searching articles in the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the reference lists of relevant articles. The search was up to November 30, 2015. Data extraction was performed by 2 independent investigators, and a consensus was reached with involvement of a third. Results: Ten prospective cohort studies (9 publications) were eligible in this meta-analysis. During follow-up periods ranging from 5.5 to 26 years, there were 92,647 deaths among 782,751 participants. Overall, a diet containing greater amounts of whole grains may be associated with a lower risk of all-cause, CVD-, and coronary heart disease (CHD)-specific mortality. The summary relative risks (RRs) were 0.93 (95% confidence intervals [CIs]: 0.91–0.95; Pheterogeneity < 0.001) for all-cause mortality, 0.95 (95% CIs: 0.92–0.98; Pheterogeneity < 0.001) for CVD-specific mortality, and 0.92 (95% CIs: 0.88–0.97; Pheterogeneity < 0.001) for CHD-specific mortality for an increment of 1 serving (30 g) a day of whole grain intake. The combined estimates were robust across subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Higher consumption of whole grains was not appreciably associated with risk of mortality from stroke and diabetes. Conclusion: Evidence from observational cohort studies indicates inverse associations of intake of whole grains with risk of mortality from all-cause, CVD, and CHD. However, no associations with risk of deaths from stroke and diabetes were observed. PMID:27537552

The Influence of Source of Social Support and Size of Social Network on All-Cause Mortality

PubMed Central

Becofsky, Katie M.; Shook, Robin P.; Sui, Xuemei; Wilcox, Sara; Lavie, Carl J.; Blair, Steven N.

2015-01-01

Objective To examine associations between relative, friend, and partner support, as well as size and source of weekly social network, on mortality risk in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS). Patients and Methods In a mail-back survey completed between January 1, 1990 and December 31, 1990, adult ACLS participants (n=12,709) answered questions regarding whether they received social support from relatives, friends, and spouse/partner (yes or no for each), and the number of friends and relatives they had contact with at least once per week. Participants were followed until December 31, 2003 or death. Cox proportional hazard regression evaluated the strength of the associations, controlling for covariates. Results Participants (25% women) averaged 53.0 years at baseline. During a median 13.5 years of follow-up, 1,139 deaths occurred. Receiving social support from relatives reduced mortality risk 19% (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68–0.95). Receiving spousal/partner support also reduced mortality risk 19% (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.66-.99). Receiving social support from friends was not associated with mortality risk (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.75–1.09), however, participants reporting social contact with 6 or 7 friends on a weekly basis had a 24% lower mortality risk than those in contact with ≤ 1 friend (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.58–0.98). Contact with 2–5 or ≥8 friends was not associated with mortality risk, nor was number of weekly relative contacts. Conclusions Receiving social support from one’s spouse/partner and relatives and maintaining weekly social interaction with 6–7 friends reduced mortality risk. Such data may inform interventions to improve long-term survival. PMID:26055526

Impact of Renal Impairment on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality After Liver Transplantation for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

VanWagner, Lisa B.; Lapin, Brittany; Skaro, Anton I.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Rinella, Mary E.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND & AIMS Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity after liver transplantation, but its impact on CVD mortality is unknown. We sought to assess the impact of NASH on CVD mortality after liver transplantation and to predict which NASH recipients are at highest risk of a CVD-related death following a liver transplant. METHODS Using the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database we examined associations between NASH and post liver transplant CVD mortality, defined as primary cause of death from thromboembolism, arrhythmia, heart failure, myocardial infarction, or stroke. A physician panel reviewed cause of death. RESULTS Of 48,360 liver transplants (2/2002–12/2011), 5,057 (10.5%) were performed for NASH cirrhosis. NASH recipients were more likely to be older, female, obese, diabetic, and have history of renal failure or prior CVD versus non-NASH (p<0.001 for all). Although there was no difference in overall all-cause mortality (log-rank p=0.96), both early (30-day) and long-term CVD-specific mortality was increased among NASH recipients (Odds ratio=1.30, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.02–1.66; Hazard ratio=1.42, 95% CI: 1.07–1.41, respectively). These associations were no longer significant after adjustment for pre-transplant diabetes, renal impairment or CVD. A risk score comprising age ≥ 55, male sex, diabetes and renal impairment was developed for prediction of post liver transplant CVD mortality (c-statistic 0.60). CONCLUSION NASH recipients have an increased risk of CVD mortality after liver transplantation explained by a high prevalence of co-morbid cardiometabolic risk factors that in aggregate identify those at highest risk of post-transplant CVD mortality. PMID:25977117

Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Liver Transplantation in the Era of MELD-Based Liver Allocation: A Multivariate Analysis

PubMed Central

Schultze, Daniel; Hillebrand, Norbert; Hinz, Ulf; Büchler, Markus W.; Schemmer, Peter

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. While waiting list mortality can be predicted by the MELD-score, reliable scoring systems for the postoperative period do not exist. This study's objective was to identify risk factors that contribute to postoperative mortality. Methods Between December 2006 and March 2011, 429 patients underwent liver transplantation in our department. Risk factors for postoperative mortality in 266 consecutive liver transplantations were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses. Patients who were <18 years, HU-listings, and split-, living related, combined or re-transplantations were excluded from the analysis. The correlation between number of risk factors and mortality was analyzed. Results A labMELD ≥20, female sex, coronary heart disease, donor risk index >1.5 and donor Na+>145 mmol/L were identified to be independent predictive factors for postoperative mortality. With increasing number of these risk-factors, postoperative 90-day and 1-year mortality increased (0–1: 0 and 0%; 2: 2.9 and 17.4%; 3: 5.6 and 16.8%; 4: 22.2 and 33.3%; 5–6: 60.9 and 66.2%). Conclusions In this analysis, a simple score was derived that adequately identified patients at risk after liver transplantation. Opening a discussion on the inclusion of these parameters in the process of organ allocation may be a worthwhile venture. PMID:24905210

A prospective study of water intake and subsequent risk of all-cause mortality in a national cohort1234

PubMed Central

Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I

2017-01-01

Background: Water, an essential nutrient, is believed to be related to a variety of health outcomes. Published studies have examined the association of fluid or beverage intake with risk of mortality from coronary diseases, diabetes, or cancer, but few studies have examined the association of total water intake with all-cause mortality. Objective: We examined prospective risk of mortality from all causes in relation to intakes of total water and each of the 3 water sources. Design: We used public-domain, mortality-linked water intake data from the NHANES conducted in 1988–1994 and 1999–2004 for this prospective cohort study (n = 12,660 women and 12,050 men; aged ≥25 y). Mortality follow-up was completed through 31 December 2011. We used sex-specific Cox proportional hazards regression methods that were appropriate for complex surveys to examine the independent associations of plain water, beverage water, water in foods, and total water with multiple covariate–adjusted risk of mortality from all causes. Results: Over a median of 11.4 y of follow-up, 3504 men and 3032 women died of any cause in this cohort. In men, neither total water intake nor each of the individual water source variables (plain water, water in beverages, and water in foods) was independently related with risk of all-cause mortality. In women, risk of mortality increased slightly in the highest quartile of total or plain water intake but did not approach the Bonferroni-corrected level of significance of P < 0.002. Conclusions: There was no survival advantage in association with higher total or plain water intake in men or women in this national cohort. The slight increase in risk of mortality noted in women with higher total and plain water intakes may be spurious and requires further investigation. PMID:27903521

A prospective study of water intake and subsequent risk of all-cause mortality in a national cohort.

PubMed

Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I

2017-01-01

Water, an essential nutrient, is believed to be related to a variety of health outcomes. Published studies have examined the association of fluid or beverage intake with risk of mortality from coronary diseases, diabetes, or cancer, but few studies have examined the association of total water intake with all-cause mortality. We examined prospective risk of mortality from all causes in relation to intakes of total water and each of the 3 water sources. We used public-domain, mortality-linked water intake data from the NHANES conducted in 1988-1994 and 1999-2004 for this prospective cohort study (n = 12,660 women and 12,050 men; aged ≥25 y). Mortality follow-up was completed through 31 December 2011. We used sex-specific Cox proportional hazards regression methods that were appropriate for complex surveys to examine the independent associations of plain water, beverage water, water in foods, and total water with multiple covariate-adjusted risk of mortality from all causes. Over a median of 11.4 y of follow-up, 3504 men and 3032 women died of any cause in this cohort. In men, neither total water intake nor each of the individual water source variables (plain water, water in beverages, and water in foods) was independently related with risk of all-cause mortality. In women, risk of mortality increased slightly in the highest quartile of total or plain water intake but did not approach the Bonferroni-corrected level of significance of P < 0.002. There was no survival advantage in association with higher total or plain water intake in men or women in this national cohort. The slight increase in risk of mortality noted in women with higher total and plain water intakes may be spurious and requires further investigation. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Dietary Fiber, Carbohydrate Quality and Quantity, and Mortality Risk of Individuals with Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Burger, Koert N. J.; Beulens, Joline W. J.; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Sluijs, Ivonne; Spijkerman, Annemieke M. W.; Sluik, Diewertje; Boeing, Heiner; Kaaks, Rudolf; Teucher, Birgit; Dethlefsen, Claus; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne; Kyrø, Cecilie; Barricarte, Aurelio; Bendinelli, Benedetta; Krogh, Vittorio; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Mattiello, Amalia; Nilsson, Peter M.; Orho-Melander, Marju; Rolandsson, Olov; Huerta, José María; Crowe, Francesca; Allen, Naomi; Nöthlings, Ute

2012-01-01

Background Dietary fiber, carbohydrate quality and quantity are associated with mortality risk in the general population. Whether this is also the case among diabetes patients is unknown. Objective To assess the associations of dietary fiber, glycemic load, glycemic index, carbohydrate, sugar, and starch intake with mortality risk in individuals with diabetes. Methods This study was a prospective cohort study among 6,192 individuals with confirmed diabetes mellitus (mean age of 57.4 years, and median diabetes duration of 4.4 years at baseline) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline (1992–2000) with validated dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, while adjusting for CVD-related, diabetes-related, and nutritional factors. Results During a median follow-up of 9.2 y, 791 deaths were recorded, 306 due to CVD. Dietary fiber was inversely associated with all-cause mortality risk (adjusted HR per SD increase, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.75–0.91]) and CVD mortality risk (0.76[0.64–0.89]). No significant associations were observed for glycemic load, glycemic index, carbohydrate, sugar, or starch. Glycemic load (1.42[1.07–1.88]), carbohydrate (1.67[1.18–2.37]) and sugar intake (1.53[1.12–2.09]) were associated with an increased total mortality risk among normal weight individuals (BMI≤25 kg/m2; 22% of study population) but not among overweight individuals (P interaction≤0.04). These associations became stronger after exclusion of energy misreporters. Conclusions High fiber intake was associated with a decreased mortality risk. High glycemic load, carbohydrate and sugar intake were associated with an increased mortality risk in normal weight individuals with diabetes. PMID:22927948

Mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults (The ELSA and Bambui cohort ageing studies)

PubMed Central

Marmot, Michael G.; Demakakos, Panayotes; Vaz de Melo Mambrini, Juliana; Peixoto, Sérgio Viana; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda

2016-01-01

Background: The main aim of this study was to quantify and compare 6-year mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults. This study represents a rare opportunity to approach the subject in two different social and economic contexts. Methods: Data from the data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing (Brazil) were used. Deaths in both cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Risk factors considered in this study were baseline smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Both age–sex adjusted hazard ratios and population attributable risks (PAR) of all-cause mortality and their 95% confidence intervals for the association between risk factors and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Participants were 3205 English and 1382 Brazilians aged 60 years and over. First, Brazilians showed much higher absolute risk of mortality than English and this finding was consistent in all age, independently of sex. Second, as a rule, hazard ratios for mortality to smoking, hypertension and diabetes showed more similarities than differences between these two populations. Third, there was strong difference among English and Brazilians on attributable deaths to hypertension. Conclusions: The findings indicate that, despite of being in more recent transitions, the attributable deaths to one or more risk factors was twofold among Brazilians relative to the English. These findings call attention for the challenge imposed to health systems to prevent and treat non-communicable diseases, particularly in populations with low socioeconomic level. PMID:26666869

Vascular Disease, ESRD, and Death: Interpreting Competing Risk Analyses

PubMed Central

Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989–1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20–2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors. PMID:22859747

Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L; Kucirka, Lauren M; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J

2012-10-01

Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.

Modelling lifetime data with multivariate Tweedie distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nor, Siti Rohani Mohd; Yusof, Fadhilah; Bahar, Arifah

2017-05-01

This study aims to measure the dependence between individual lifetimes by applying multivariate Tweedie distribution to the lifetime data. Dependence between lifetimes incorporated in the mortality model is a new form of idea that gives significant impact on the risk of the annuity portfolio which is actually against the idea of standard actuarial methods that assumes independent between lifetimes. Hence, this paper applies Tweedie family distribution to the portfolio of lifetimes to induce the dependence between lives. Tweedie distribution is chosen since it contains symmetric and non-symmetric, as well as light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions. Parameter estimation is modified in order to fit the Tweedie distribution to the data. This procedure is developed by using method of moments. In addition, the comparison stage is made to check for the adequacy between the observed mortality and expected mortality. Finally, the importance of including systematic mortality risk in the model is justified by the Pearson's chi-squared test.

Spatial variation in mortality risk for haematological malignancies near a petrochemical refinery: a population-based case-control study

PubMed Central

Di Salvo, Francesca; Meneghini, Elisabetta; Vieira, Veronica; Baili, Paolo; Mariottini, Mauro; Baldini, Marco; Micheli, Andrea; Sant, Milena

2015-01-01

Introduction The study investigated the geographic variation of mortality risk for hematological malignancies (HMs) in order to identify potential high-risk areas near an Italian petrochemical refinery. Material and methods A population-based case-control study was conducted and residential histories for 171 cases and 338 sex- and age-matched controls were collected. Confounding factors were obtained from interviews with consenting relatives for 109 HM deaths and 267 controls. To produce risk mortality maps, two different approaches were applied. We mapped (1) adptive kernel density relative risk estimation (KDE) for case-control studies which estimates a spatial relative risk function using the ratio between cases and controls’ densities, and (2) estimated odds ratios for case-control study data using generalized additive models (GAMs) to smooth the effect of location, a proxy for exposure, while adjusting for confounding variables. Results No high-risk areas for HM mortality were identified among all subjects (men and women combined), by applying both approaches. Using the adaptive KDE approach, we found a significant increase in death risk only among women in a large area 2–6 km southeast of the refinery and the application of GAMs also identified a similarly-located significant high-risk area among women only (global p-value<0.025). Potential confounding risk factors we considered in the GAM did not alter the results. Conclusion Both approaches identified a high-risk area close to the refinery among women only. Those spatial methods are useful tools for public policy management to determine priority areas for intervention. Our findings suggest several directions for further research in order to identify other potential environmental exposures that may be assessed in forthcoming studies based on detailed exposure modeling. PMID:26073202

Mortality characteristics of aortic root surgery in North America†

PubMed Central

Caceres, Manuel; Ma, Yicheng; Rankin, J. Scott; Saha-Chaudhuri, Paramita; Englum, Brian R.; Gammie, James S.; Suri, Rakesh M.; Thourani, Vinod H.; Esmailian, Fardad; Czer, Lawrence S.; Puskas, John D.; Svensson, Lars G.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES Aortic root surgery is transitioning to aortic valve sparing (AVS), but little is known about the relative early outcomes of AVS versus composite graft-valve replacement (CVR). This study assessed mortality differences for AVS versus CVR to guide future practice decisions. METHODS From January 2000 to June 2011, 31 747 patients had aortic root replacement with AVS (n = 3585; 11%) or CVR (n = 28 162; 89%). The cohort of Overall patients was divided into two subgroups: high-risk patients (n = 20 356; 6% AVS) having age >75 years, endocarditis, aortic stenosis, dialysis, multiple valves, reoperation or emergency/salvage status, and the remaining low-risk patients (n = 11 388; 21% AVS). Using logistic regression analysis, outcomes were presented as unadjusted operative mortality (UOM), risk-adjusted operative mortality (AOM) and adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for mortality. RESULTS Baseline characteristics for the Overall group (AVS versus CVR) were: mean age (52 vs 57 years), endocarditis (1 vs 11%), aortic stenosis (4 vs 36%), dialysis (1 vs 2%), multiple valves (7 vs 10%), reoperation (6 vs 17%) and emergency status (14 vs 12%) (all P < 0.0001). In high- and low-risk groups, baseline differences narrowed, and lower mortality was generally observed with AVS: (AVS versus CVR) UOM group Overall (4.5 vs 8.9%)*, group High-risk (10.5 vs 11.7%), group Low-risk (1.4 vs 3.1%)*; AOM group Overall (6.2 vs 8.6%), group High-risk (10.1 vs 11.7%), group Low-risk (2.2 vs 2.8%); AOR group Overall (0.59)*, group High-risk (0.62)*, group Low-risk (0.69). *P < 0.05. CONCLUSIONS Relative risk-adjusted mortality seemed comparable with AVS versus CVR in low- and high-risk subgroups. These data support judicious expansion of aortic valve repair in patients having aortic root replacement. PMID:24639452

Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, Brent S., E-mail: brose44@gmail.com; Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing

Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for menmore » with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.« less

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

Risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters: A national registry study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, I-Ming; Liao, Shih-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Been; Wu, Chia-Yi; Lin, Po-Hsien; Chen, Wei J

2016-05-01

Little is known about the risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters. This study aims to investigate the predictors of suicidal mortality in a prospective cohort of attempters in Taiwan, focusing on the time interval and suicide method change between the last two nonfatal attempts. The representative data retrieved from the National Suicide Surveillance System (NSSS) was linked with National Mortality Database to identify the causes of death in multiple attempters during 2006-2008. Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to calculate the hazard ratios for the predictors of suicide. Among the 55,560 attempters, 6485 (11.7%) had survived attempts ranging from one to 11 times; 861 (1.5%) eventually died by suicide. Multiple attempters were characterized by female (OR = 1.56, p < 0.0001), nonrecipient of national aftercare service (OR = 1.62, p < 0.0001), and current contact with mental health services (OR = 3.17, p < 0.0001). Most multiple attempters who survived from hanging (68.1%) and gas poisoning (61.9%) chose the same method in the following fatal episode. Predictors of suicidal death were identified as male, older age (≥ 45 years), shorter interval and not maintaining methods of low lethality in the last two nonfatal attempts. Receipt of nationwide aftercare was associated with lower risk of suicide but the effect was insignificant. The time interval of the last two nonfatal attempts and alteration in the lethality of suicide method were significant factors for completed suicide. Risk assessment involving these two factors may be necessary for multiple attempters in different clinical settings. Effective strategies for suicide prevention emphasizing this high risk population should be developed in the future. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mortality From Neurodegenerative Diseases in a Cohort of US Flight Attendants

PubMed Central

Pinkerton, Lynne E.; Hein, Misty J.; Grajewski, Barbara; Kamel, Freya

2016-01-01

Background Concern exists about the potential chronic neurological effects among aircrew of exposure to chemical contaminants from engine oil in aircraft cabin air. We evaluated mortality from neurodegenerative diseases among 11,311 former US flight attendants. Methods Vital status was ascertained through 2007, and life table analyses were conducted to obtain standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Results Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) mortality was over twice as high in the cohort as in the US general population, based on nine observed ALS deaths. There was no clear pattern in risk when SMRs for ALS were stratified by exposure duration. Mortality from other neurodegenerative diseases was not elevated. Conclusions Our findings are limited due to small numbers of observed deaths and reliance on mortality data, but suggest that flight attendants may have an increased risk of ALS. Additional research is needed. PMID:27184412

Age- and gender-specific population attributable risks of metabolic disorders on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Taiwan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The extent of attributable risks of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components on mortality remains unclear, especially with respect to age and gender. We aimed to assess the age- and gender-specific population attributable risks (PARs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality and all-cause mortality for public health planning. Methods A total of 2,092 men and 2,197 women 30 years of age and older, who were included in the 2002 Taiwan Survey of Hypertension, Hyperglycemia, and Hyperlipidemia (TwSHHH), were linked to national death certificates acquired through December 31, 2009. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios and PARs for mortality, with a median follow-up of 7.7 years. Results The respective PAR percentages of MetS for all-cause and CVD-related mortality were 11.6 and 39.2 in men, respectively, and 18.6 and 44.4 in women, respectively. Central obesity had the highest PAR for CVD mortality in women (57.5%), whereas arterial hypertension had the highest PAR in men (57.5%). For all-cause mortality, younger men and post-menopausal women had higher PARs related to Mets and its components; for CVD mortality, post-menopausal women had higher overall PARs than their pre-menopausal counterparts. Conclusions MetS has a limited application to the PAR for all-cause mortality, especially in men; its PAR for CVD mortality is more evident. For CVD mortality, MetS components have higher PARs than MetS itself, especially hypertension in men and waist circumference in post-menopausal women. In addition, PARs for diabetes mellitus and low HDL-cholesterol may exceed 20%. We suggest differential control of risk factors in different subpopulation as a strategy to prevent CVD-related mortality. PMID:22321049

Urbanization Level and Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

PubMed Central

Chen, Kai; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Ma, Zongwei; Liu, Yang; Huang, Lei; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: Although adverse effects of high temperature on mortality have been studied extensively in urban areas, little is known of the heat–mortality associations outside of cities. Objective: We investigated whether heat–mortality associations differed between urban and nonurban areas and how urbanicity affected the vulnerability to heat-related mortality. Methods: We first analyzed heat-related mortality risk in each of 102 counties in Jiangsu Province, China, during 2009–2013 using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. The county-specific estimates were then pooled for more urban (percentage of urban population ≥ 57.11%) and less urban (percentage of urban population < 57.11%) counties using a Bayesian hierarchical model. To explain the spatial variation in associations by county, county-level characteristics affecting heat vulnerability were also examined. Results: We found that the overall mortality risk comparing the 99th vs. 75th percentiles of temperature was 1.43 [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.36, 1.50] in less urban counties and 1.26 (95% PI: 1.23, 1.30) in more urban counties. The heat effects on cardiorespiratory mortality followed a similar pattern. Higher education level and prevalence of air conditioning were significantly associated with counties having lower risks, whereas percentage of elderly people was significantly associated with increased risks. Conclusion: Our findings reveal that nonurban areas have significant heat-related mortality risks in Jiangsu, China. These results suggest the need for enhanced adaptation planning in Chinese nonurban areas under a changing climate. Citation: Chen K, Zhou L, Chen X, Ma Z, Liu Y, Huang L, Bi J, Kinney PL. 2016. Urbanization level and vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1863–1869; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP204 PMID:27152420

Relationship between Subclinical Thyroid Dysfunction and the Risk of Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Sun, Jing; Yao, Liang; Fang, Yuan; Yang, Ruifei; Chen, Yaolong

2017-01-01

Background Evidence on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting. Methods and Results PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and China Biology Medicine (CBM) databases were searched from inception to July 10, 2016. A total of 16 studies were included for meta-analysis. We found that subclinical hypothyroidism was not correlated with coronary heart disease (CHD) (RR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.91–1.52), total mortality (RR = 1.02; 95% CI, 0.93–1.13), cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.06; 95% CI, 0.77–1.45), heart failure (RR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.87–1.57), and atrial fibrillation (RR = 1.05; 95% CI, 0.91–1.21), except CHD mortality (RR = 1.37; 95% CI, 1.03–1.84). Subgroup analysis indicated a higher estimation risk in CHD (RR = 1.54; 95% CI, 1.00–2.39), cardiovascular mortality (RR = 2.14; 95% CI, 1.43–3.22), and CHD mortality (RR = 1.54; 95% CI, 1.11–2.15) among participants < 65 years. Furthermore, subclinical hyperthyroidism was found to be associated with CHD (RR = 1.20; 95% CI, 1.02–1.42), total mortality (RR = 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07–1.51), and CHD mortality (RR = 1.45; 95% CI, 1.12–1.86). Conclusions Subclinical hypothyroidism is likely associated with an increased risk of CHD mortality, and subclinical hyperthyroidism is likely associated with increased risk of CHD, CHD mortality, and total mortality. PMID:29081800

Smoking and mortality in stroke survivors: can we eliminate the paradox?

PubMed

Levine, Deborah A; Walter, James M; Karve, Sudeep J; Skolarus, Lesli E; Levine, Steven R; Mulhorn, Kristine A

2014-07-01

Many studies have suggested that smoking does not increase mortality in stroke survivors. Index event bias, a sample selection bias, potentially explains this paradoxical finding. Therefore, we compared all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality by cigarette smoking status among stroke survivors using methods to account for index event bias. Among 5797 stroke survivors of 45 years or older who responded to the National Health Interview Survey years 1997-2004, an annual, population-based survey of community-dwelling US adults, linked to the National Death Index, we estimated all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality by smoking status using Cox proportional regression and propensity score analysis to account for demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors. Mean follow-up was 4.5 years. From 1997 to 2004, 18.7% of stroke survivors smoked. There were 1988 deaths in this stroke survivor cohort, with 50% of deaths because of CVD and 15% because of cancer. Current smokers had an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-1.63) and cancer mortality (HR, 3.83; 95% CI, 2.48-5.91) compared with never smokers, after controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors. Current smokers had an increased risk of CVD mortality controlling for age and sex (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.64), but this risk did not persist after controlling for socioeconomic and clinical factors (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, .88-1.50). Stroke survivors who smoke have an increased risk of all-cause mortality, which is largely because of cancer mortality. Socioeconomic and clinical factors explain stroke survivors' higher risk of CVD mortality associated with smoking. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Population-Based Long-Term Cardiac-Specific Mortality Among 34 489 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Great Britain

PubMed Central

Fidler, Miranda M.; Reulen, Raoul C.; Henson, Katherine; Kelly, Julie; Cutter, David; Levitt, Gill A.; Frobisher, Clare; Winter, David L.

2017-01-01

Background: Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34 489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends. Results: Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on. Conclusions: Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 suggests that initiatives to reduce cardiotoxicity among those treated more recently may be having a measurable impact. PMID:28082386

Design-corrected variation by centre in mortality reduction in the ERSPC randomised prostate cancer screening trial.

PubMed

Hakama, Matti; Moss, Sue M; Stenman, Ulf-Hakan; Roobol, Monique J; Zappa, Marco; Carlsson, Sigrid; Randazzo, Marco; Nelen, Vera; Hugosson, Jonas

2017-06-01

Objectives To calculate design-corrected estimates of the effect of screening on prostate cancer mortality by centre in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). Setting The ERSPC has shown a 21% reduction in prostate cancer mortality in men invited to screening with follow-up truncated at 13 years. Centres either used pre-consent randomisation (effectiveness design) or post-consent randomisation (efficacy design). Methods In six centres (three effectiveness design, three efficacy design) with follow-up until the end of 2010, or maximum 13 years, the effect of screening was estimated as both effectiveness (mortality reduction in the target population) and efficacy (reduction in those actually screened). Results The overall crude prostate cancer mortality risk ratio in the intervention arm vs control arm for the six centres was 0.79 ranging from a 14% increase to a 38% reduction. The risk ratio was 0.85 in centres with effectiveness design and 0.73 in those with efficacy design. After correcting for design, overall efficacy was 27%, 24% in pre-consent and 29% in post-consent centres, ranging between a 12% increase and a 52% reduction. Conclusion The estimated overall effect of screening in attenders (efficacy) was a 27% reduction in prostate cancer mortality at 13 years' follow-up. The variation in efficacy between centres was greater than the range in risk ratio without correction for design. The centre-specific variation in the mortality reduction could not be accounted for by the randomisation method.

[Mortality from Suicide in the Municipalities of Mainland Portugal: Spatio-Temporal Evolution between 1980 and 2015].

PubMed

Loureiro, Adriana; Almendra, Ricardo; Costa, Cláudia; Santana, Paula

2018-01-31

Suicide is considered a public health priority. It is a complex phenomenon resulting from the interaction of several factors, which do not depend solely on individual conditions. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of suicide mortality between 1980 and 2015, identifying areas of high risk, and their variation, in the 278 municipalities of Continental Portugal. Based on the number of self-inflicted injuries and deaths from suicide and the resident population, the spatio-temporal evolution of the suicide mortality rate was assessed via: i) a Poisson joinpoint regression model, and ii) spatio-temporal clustering methods. The suicide mortality rate evolution showed statistically significant increases over three periods (1980 - 1984; 1999 - 2002 and 2006 - 2015) and two statistically significant periods of decrease (1984 - 1995 and 1995 - 1999). The spatio-temporal analysis identified five clusters of high suicide risk (relative risk >1) and four clusters of low suicide risk (relative risk < 1). The periods when suicide mortality increases seem to overlap with times of economic and financial instability. The geographical pattern of suicide risk has changed: presently, the suicide rates from the municipalities in the Center and North are showing more similarity with those seen in the South, thus increasing the ruralization of the phenomenon of suicide. Between 1980 and 2015 the spacio-temporal pattern of mortality from suicide has been changing and is a phenomenon that is currently experiencing a growing trend (since 2006) and is of higher risk in rural areas.

The SLUScore: A Novel Method for Detecting Hazardous Hypotension in Adult Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgical Procedures

PubMed Central

Yuan, Hui; Dryden, Jefferson K.; Strehl, Kristen E.; Cywinski, Jacek B.; Ehrenfeld, Jesse M.; Bromley, Pamela

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that longer-term postsurgical outcome may be adversely affected by less than severe hypotension under anesthesia. However, evidence-based guidelines are unavailable. The present study was designed to develop a method for identifying patients at increased risk of death within 30 days in association with the severity and duration of intraoperative hypotension. METHODS: Intraoperative mean arterial blood pressure recordings of 152,445 adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery were analyzed for periods of time accumulated below each one of the 31 thresholds between 75 and 45 mm Hg (hypotensive exposure times). In a development cohort of 35,904 patients, the associations were sought between each of these 31 cumulative hypotensive exposure times and 30-day postsurgical mortality. On the basis of covariable-adjusted percentage increases in the odds of mortality per minute elapsed of hypotensive exposure time, certain sets of exposure time limits were calculated that portended certain percentage increases in the odds of mortality. A novel risk-scoring method was conceived by counting the number of exposure time limits that had been exceeded within each respective set, one of them being called the SLUScore. The validity of this new method in identifying patients at increased risk was tested in a multicenter validation cohort consisting of 116,541 patients from Cleveland Clinic, Vanderbilt and Saint Louis Universities. Data were expressed as 95% confidence interval, P < .05 considered significant. RESULTS: Progressively greater hypotensive exposures were associated with greater 30-day mortality. In the development cohort, covariable-adjusted (age, Charlson score, case duration, history of hypertension) exposure limits were identified for time accumulated below each of the thresholds that portended certain identical (5%–50%) percentage expected increases in the odds of mortality. These exposure time limit sets were shorter in patients with a history of hypertension. A novel risk score, the SLUScore (range 0–31), was conceived as the number of exposure limits exceeded for one of these sets (20% set). A SLUScore > 0 (average 13.8) was found in 40% of patients who had twice the mortality, adjusted odds increasing by 5% per limit exceeded. When tested in the validation cohort, a SLUScore > 0 (average 14.1) identified 35% of patients who had twice the mortality, each incremental limit exceeded portending a 5% compounding increase in adjusted odds of mortality, independent of age and Charlson score (C = 0.73, 0.72–0.74, P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The SLUScore represents a novel method for identifying nearly 1 in every 3 patients experiencing greater 30-day mortality portended by more severe intraoperative hypotensive exposures. PMID:28107274

Long-term psychosocial work environment and cardiovascular mortality among Swedish men.

PubMed Central

Johnson, J V; Stewart, W; Hall, E M; Fredlund, P; Theorell, T

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVES. This study examined the effect of cumulative exposure to work organization--psychological demands, work control, and social support on prospectively measured cardiovascular disease mortality risk. METHODS. The source population was a national sample of 12517 subjects selected from the Swedish male population by Statistics Sweden in annual surveys between 1977 and 1981. Over a 14-year follow-up period, 521 deaths from cardiovascular disease were identified. A nested case-control design was used. Work environment exposure scores were assigned to cases and controls by linking lifetime job histories with a job exposure matrix. RESULTS. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used in examining cardiovascular mortality risk in relation to work exposure after adjustment for age, year last employed, smoking, exercise, education, social class, nationality, and physical job demands. In the final multi-variable analysis, workers with low work control had a relative risk of 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19, 2.82) for cardiovascular mortality. Workers with combined exposure to low control and low support had a relative risk of 2.62 (95% CI=1.22, 5.61). CONCLUSIONS. These results indicate that long-term exposure to low work control is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease mortality. PMID:8604756

Depression and Anxiety as Risk Factors for Morbidity and Mortality after Organ Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis1

PubMed Central

Dew, Mary Amanda; Rosenberger, Emily M.; Myaskovsky, Larissa; DiMartini, Andrea F.; DeVito Dabbs, Annette J.; Posluszny, Donna M.; Steel, Jennifer; Switzer, Galen E.; Shellmer, Diana A.; Greenhouse, Joel B.

2015-01-01

Background Depression and anxiety are common mental health problems in transplant populations. There is mixed evidence concerning whether they increase morbidity and mortality risks post-transplant. If such associations exist, additional risk reduction strategies may be needed. Methods Four bibliographic databases were searched from 1981 through September, 2014 for studies prospectively examining whether depression or anxiety (determined with diagnostic evaluations or standardized symptom scales) affected risk for post-transplant mortality, graft loss, acute graft rejection, chronic rejection, cancer, infection, and rehospitalization. Results Twenty-seven studies (10 heart, total n=1,738; 6 liver, n=1,063; 5 kidney, n=49,515; 4 lung, n=584; 1 pancreas, n=80; 1 mixed recipient sample, n=205) were identified. In each, depression and/or anxiety were typically measured pre- or early post-transplant. Follow-up for outcomes was a median of 5.8 years (range:0.50–18.0). Depression increased the relative risk (RR) of mortality by 65% (RR=1.65, 95% CI:1.34,2.05; 20 studies). Meta-regression indicated that risk was stronger in studies that did (v. did not) control for potential confounders(p=.032). Risk was unaffected by type of transplant or other study characteristics. Depression increased death-censored graft loss risk (RR=1.65, CI:1.21,2.26, 3 studies). Depression was not associated with other morbidities (each morbidity assessed in 1–4 studies). Anxiety did not significantly increase mortality risk (RR=1.39, CI:0.85,2.27, 6 studies) or morbidity risks (assessed in single studies). Conclusions Depression increases risk for post-transplant mortality. Few studies considered morbidities; the depression-graft loss association suggests that linkages with morbidities deserve greater attention. Depression screening and treatment may be warranted, although whether these activities would reduce post-transplant mortality requires study. PMID:26492128

A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data.

PubMed

Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O

2018-01-01

Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010-2015 was analyzed. The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality.

Reasons for Persistently High Maternal and Perinatal Mortalities in Ethiopia: Part II-Socio-Economic and Cultural Factors

PubMed Central

Berhan, Yifru; Berhan, Asres

2014-01-01

Background The major causes of maternal and perinatal deaths are mostly pregnancy related. However, there are several predisposing factors for the increased risk of pregnancy related complications and deaths in developing countries. The objective of this review was to grossly estimate the effect of selected socioeconomic and cultural factors on maternal mortality, stillbirths and neonatal mortality in Ethiopia. Methods A comprehensive literature review was conducted focusing on the effect of total fertility rate (TFR), modern contraceptive use, harmful traditional practice, adult literacy rate and level of income on maternal and perinatal mortalities. For the majority of the data, regression analysis and Pearson correlation coefficient were used as a proxy indicator for the association of variables with maternal, fetal and neonatal mortality. Results Although there were variations in the methods for estimation, the TFR of women in Ethiopia declined from 5.9 to 4.8 in the last fifteen years, which was in the middle as compared with that of other African countries. The preference of injectable contraceptive method has increased by 7-fold, but the unmet contraceptive need was among the highest in Africa. About 50% reduction in female genital cutting (FGC) was reported although some women's attitude was positive towards the practice of FGC. The regression analysis demonstrated increased risk of stillbirths, neonatal and maternal mortality with increased TFR. The increased adult literacy rate was associated with increased antenatal care and skilled person attended delivery. Low adult literacy was also found to have a negative association with stillbirths and neonatal and maternal mortality. A similar trend was also observed with income. Conclusion Maternal mortality ratio, stillbirth rate and neonatal mortality rate had inverse relations with income and adult education. In Ethiopia, the high total fertility rate, low utilization of contraceptive methods, low adult literacy rate, low income and prevalent harmful traditional practices have probably contributed to the high maternal mortality ratio, stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates. PMID:25489187

The association between relationship markers of sexual orientation and suicide: Denmark, 1990–2001

PubMed Central

Mathy, Robin M.; Olsen, Jorn; Mays, Vickie M.

2009-01-01

Objective Minority sexual orientation has been repeatedly linked to elevated rates of suicide attempts. Whether this translates into greater risk for suicide mortality is unclear. We investigated sexual orientation-related differences in suicide mortality in Denmark during the initial 12-year period following legalization of same-sex registered domestic partnerships (RDPs). Method Using data from death certificates issued between 1990 and 2001 and population estimates from the Danish census, we estimated suicide mortality risk among individuals classified into one of three marital/cohabitation statuses: current/formerly in same-sex RDPs; current/formerly heterosexually married; or never married/registered. Results Risk for suicide mortality was associated with this proxy indicator of sexual orientation, but only significantly among men. The estimated age-adjusted suicide mortality risk for RDP men was nearly eight times greater than for men with positive histories of heterosexual marriage and nearly twice as high for men who had never married. Conclusions Suicide risk appears greatly elevated for men in same-sex partnerships in Denmark. To what extent this is true for similar gay and bisexual men who are not in such relationships is unknown, but these findings call for targeted suicide prevention programs aimed at reducing suicide risk among gay and bisexual men. PMID:20033129

Biomarkers to monitor safety in people on art and risk of mortality.

PubMed

Bansi, Loveleen; Gazzard, Brian; Post, Frank; Phillips, Andrew; Johnson, Margaret; Hill, Teresa; Gilson, Richard; Leen, Clifford; Walsh, John; Fisher, Martin; Sabin, Caroline

2012-05-01

Though patients with HIV now have near normal life expectancies as a result of antiretroviral treatment, long-term adverse effects are of growing concern. Using time-updated laboratory measurements, we use several methods to derive a score that can be used to identify individuals at high risk of mortality. Patients who started highly active antiretroviral therapy after 2000 and had ≥1 CD4 count, viral load, and laboratory marker recorded after the date of starting highly active antiretroviral therapy were included in the analyses. Laboratory markers were stratified into quintiles and associations between each marker and mortality was assessed using Poisson regression. The estimates of the final model were used to construct a score for predicting short-term mortality. Several methods, including multiple imputation, were used for analyzing records with missing measurements. Of the 7232 patients included in this analysis, 247 died over 24,796 person-years of follow-up, giving an overall mortality rate of 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.87 to 1.12) per 100 person-years. Regardless of which method was used to deal with missing data, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, and hemoglobin were independently associated with mortality. Alanine transaminase was independently associated with mortality when patients with missing measurements were assumed to have measurements within the normal range. The C-statistics for all models ranged from 0.76 to 0.78. Measures of alanine transaminase, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, and hemoglobin in the normal range were predictive of mortality, and hence we suggest using a scoring system to predict mortality which relies on the raw values of these 4 laboratory markers.

Evaluation of paediatric cardiosurgical model in Croatia by using the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment for congenital cardiac surgery-1 method.

PubMed

Dilber, Daniel; Malcic, Ivan

2010-08-01

The Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were developed and used to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. Both methods were used to compare results of procedures performed on our patients in Croatian cardiosurgical centres and results of procedures were taken abroad. The study population consisted of all patients with congenital cardiac disease born to Croatian residents between 1 October, 2002 and 1 October, 2007 undergoing a cardiovascular operation during this period. Of the 556 operations, the Aristotle basic complexity score could be assigned to 553 operations and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method to 536 operations. Procedures were performed in two institutions in Croatia and seven institutions abroad. The average complexity for cardiac procedures performed in Croatia was significantly lower. With both systems, along with the increase in complexity, there is also an increase in mortality before discharge and postoperative length of stay. Only after the adjustment for complexity there are marked differences in mortality and occurrence of postoperative complications. Both, the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were predictive of in-hospital mortality as well as prolonged postoperative length to stay, and can be used as a tool in our country to evaluate a cardiosurgical model and recognise potential problems.

Prevalent and Incident Tuberculosis Are Independent Risk Factors for Mortality among Patients Accessing Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

PubMed Central

Gupta, Ankur; Wood, Robin; Kaplan, Richard; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Lawn, Stephen D.

2013-01-01

Background Patients with prevalent or incident tuberculosis (TB) in antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa have high mortality risk. However, published data are contradictory as to whether TB is a risk factor for mortality that is independent of CD4 cell counts and other patient characteristics. Methods/Findings This observational ART cohort study was based in Cape Town, South Africa. Deaths from all causes were ascertained among patients receiving ART for up to 8 years. TB diagnoses and 4-monthly CD4 cell counts were recorded. Mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and identify risk factors for mortality. Of 1544 patients starting ART, 464 patients had prevalent TB at baseline and 424 developed incident TB during a median of 5.0 years follow-up. Most TB diagnoses (73.6%) were culture-confirmed. A total of 208 (13.5%) patients died during ART and mortality rates were 8.84 deaths/100 person-years during the first year of ART and decreased to 1.14 deaths/100 person-years after 5 years. In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline and time-updated risk factors, both prevalent and incident TB were independent risk factors for mortality (IRR 1.7 [95% CI, 1.2–2.3] and 2.7 [95% CI, 1.9–3.8], respectively). Adjusted mortality risks were higher in the first 6 months of ART for those with prevalent TB at baseline (IRR 2.33; 95% CI, 1.5–3.5) and within the 6 months following diagnoses of incident TB (IRR 3.8; 95% CI, 2.6–5.7). Conclusions Prevalent TB at baseline and incident TB during ART were strongly associated with increased mortality risk. This effect was time-dependent, suggesting that TB and mortality are likely to be causally related and that TB is not simply an epiphenomenon among highly immunocompromised patients. Strategies to rapidly diagnose, treat and prevent TB prior to and during ART urgently need to be implemented. PMID:23418463

Hospital Variation in Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Sepsis Mortality.

PubMed

Ames, Stefanie G; Davis, Billie S; Angus, Derek C; Carcillo, Joseph A; Kahn, Jeremy M

2018-05-01

With continued attention to pediatric sepsis at both the clinical and policy levels, it is important to understand the quality of hospitals in terms of their pediatric sepsis mortality. We sought to develop a method to evaluate hospital pediatric sepsis performance using 30-day risk-adjusted mortality and to assess hospital variation in risk-adjusted sepsis mortality in a large state-wide sample. Retrospective cohort study using administrative claims data. Acute care hospitals in the state of Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2013. Patients between the ages of 0-19 years admitted to a hospital with sepsis defined using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification, diagnosis and procedure codes. None. During the study period, there were 9,013 pediatric sepsis encounters in 153 hospitals. After excluding repeat visits and hospitals with annual patient volumes too small to reliably assess hospital performance, there were 6,468 unique encounters in 24 hospitals. The overall unadjusted mortality rate was 6.5% (range across all hospitals: 1.5-11.9%). The median number of pediatric sepsis cases per hospital was 67 (range across all hospitals: 30-1,858). A hierarchical logistic regression model for 30-day risk-adjusted mortality controlling for patient age, gender, emergency department admission, infection source, presence of organ dysfunction at admission, and presence of chronic complex conditions showed good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.80) and calibration (slope and intercept of calibration plot: 0.95 and -0.01, respectively). The hospital-specific risk-adjusted mortality rates calculated from this model varied minimally, ranging from 6.0% to 7.4%. Although a risk-adjustment model for 30-day pediatric sepsis mortality had good performance characteristics, the use of risk-adjusted mortality rates as a hospital quality measure in pediatric sepsis is not useful due to the low volume of cases at most hospitals. Novel metrics to evaluate the quality of pediatric sepsis care are needed.

Lights out: Impact of the August 2003 power outage on mortality in New York, NY

PubMed Central

Anderson, G. Brooke; Bell, Michelle L.

2012-01-01

Background Little is known about how power outages affect health. We investigated mortality effects of the largest US blackout to date, August 14–15, 2003 in New York, NY. Methods We estimated mortality risk in New York, NY, using a generalized linear model with data from 1987–2005. We incorporated possible confounders, including weather and long-term and seasonal mortality trends. Results During the blackout, mortality increased for accidental deaths (122% [95% confidence interval = 28%–287%]) and non-accidental (i.e., disease-related) deaths (25% [12%–41%]), resulting in approximately 90 excess deaths. Increased mortality was not from deaths being advanced by a few days; rather, mortality risk remained slightly elevated through August 2003. Discussion To our knowledge, this is the first analysis of power outages and non-accidental mortality. Understanding the impact of power outages on human health is relevant, given that increased energy demand and climate change are likely to put added strain on power grids. PMID:22252408

Mortality in US Army Gulf War Veterans Exposed to 1991 Khamisiyah Chemical Munitions Destruction

PubMed Central

Bullman, Tim A.; Mahan, Clare M.; Kang, Han K.; Page, William F.

2005-01-01

Objectives. We investigated whether US Army Gulf War veterans who were potentially exposed to nerve agents during the March 1991 weapons demolitions at Khamisiyah, Iraq, are at increased risk of cause-specific mortality. Methods. The cause-specific mortality of 100487 exposed US Army Gulf War veterans was compared with that of 224980 unexposed US Army Gulf War veterans. Exposure was determined with the Department of Defense 2000 plume model. Relative risk estimates were derived from Cox proportional hazards models. Results. The risks of most disease-related mortality were similar for exposed and unexposed veterans. However, exposed veterans had an increased risk of brain cancer deaths (relative risk [RR]=1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.12, 3.34). The risk of brain cancer death was larger among those exposed 2 or more days than those exposed 1 day when both were compared separately to all unexposed veterans (RR=3.26; 95% CI=1.33, 7.96; RR=1.72; 95% CI=0.95,3.10, respectively). Conclusions. Exposure to chemical munitions at Khamisiyah may be associated with an increased risk of brain cancer death. Additional research is required to confirm this finding. PMID:16043669

Leisure-Time Physical Activity Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Dementia-Related Mortality in Adults With and Without Psychological Distress: The Cohort of Norway.

PubMed

Zotcheva, Ekaterina; Selbæk, Geir; Bjertness, Espen; Ernstsen, Linda; Strand, Bjørn H

2018-01-01

Background: Leisure-time physical activity (PA) has been proposed as a protective factor against dementia, whereas psychological distress is associated with an increased risk of dementia. We investigated the associations of leisure-time PA and psychological distress with dementia-related mortality, and whether the association between leisure-time PA and dementia-related mortality differs according to level of psychological distress. Methods: 36,945 individuals from the Cohort of Norway aged 50-74 years at baseline (1994-2002) were included and followed up until January 1st 2015. Leisure-time PA and psychological distress were assessed through questionnaires, whereas dementia-related mortality was obtained through the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Adjusted Cox regression analyses were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: Compared to inactivity, leisure-time PA was associated with a decreased risk of dementia-related mortality; low intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.89); high intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.61, 95%CI 0.49-0.77). A statistically significant difference in dementia-related mortality risk was observed between low and high intensity leisure-time PA ( p < 0.05). Psychological distress was associated with an increased risk of dementia-related mortality (HR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.16-1.81). Among non-distressed, leisure-time PA was associated with a decreased dementia-related mortality risk; low intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.97); high intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.51-0.84). The same applied for those with psychological distress; low intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.35-0.94); high intensity leisure-time PA (HR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.22-0.82). The interaction between leisure-time PA and psychological distress on dementia-related mortality was not statistically significant ( p = 0.38). Conclusions: Participating in leisure-time PA was associated with a reduced risk of dementia-related mortality, whereas psychological distress was associated with an increased risk of dementia-related mortality. Leisure-time PA appears to be equally strongly related with dementia-related mortality among those with and without psychological distress, underlining the importance of leisure-time PA for various groups of middle-aged and older adults.

Red blood cell distribution width and mortality risk in a community-based prospective cohort: NHANES III

PubMed Central

Perlstein, Todd S; Weuve, Jennifer; Pfeffer, Marc A; Beckman, Joshua A

2011-01-01

Background The red cell distribution width (RDW), an automated measure of red blood cell size heterogeneity (e.g. anisocytosis) that is largely overlooked, is a newly recognized risk marker in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD). It is unknown whether RDW is associated with mortality in the general population, or whether this association is specific to CVD. Methods We examined the association of RDW with all-cause mortality, as well as cardiovascular, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory disease mortality among 15,852 adult participants in The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–1994), a nationally representative sample of the United States population. Mortality status was obtained by matching to the National Death Index, with follow-up through December 31, 2000. Results Estimated mortality rates increased 5-fold from the lowest to highest quintile of RDW after accounting for age, and 2-fold after multivariable adjustment (each Ptrend < 0.001). A 1- standard deviation increment in RDW (0.98) was associated with a 23% greater risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18–1.28) after multivariable adjustment. RDW was also associated with risk of death due to cardiovascular disease (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.14–1.31), cancer (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.21–1.36), and chronic lower respiratory disease (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.17–1.49). Conclusions Higher RDW was associated with increased mortality risk in this large, community-based sample, an association not specific to CVD. Study of anisocytosis may therefore yield novel pathophysiological insights, and measurement of RDW may contribute to risk assessment. PMID:19307522

Mortality in Postmenopausal Women by Sexual Orientation and Veteran Status

PubMed Central

Lehavot, Keren; Rillamas-Sun, Eileen; Weitlauf, Julie; Kimerling, Rachel; Wallace, Robert B.; Sadler, Anne G.; Woods, Nancy Fugate; Shipherd, Jillian C.; Mattocks, Kristin; Cirillo, Dominic J.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Simpson, Tracy L.

2016-01-01

Abstract Purpose of the Study: To examine differences in all-cause and cause-specific mortality by sexual orientation and Veteran status among older women. Design and Methods: Data were from the Women’s Health Initiative, with demographic characteristics, psychosocial factors, and health behaviors assessed at baseline (1993–1998) and mortality status from all available data sources through 2014. Women with baseline information on lifetime sexual behavior and Veteran status were included in the analyses ( N = 137,639; 1.4% sexual minority, 2.5% Veteran). The four comparison groups included sexual minority Veterans, sexual minority non-Veterans, heterosexual Veterans, and heterosexual non-Veterans. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate mortality risk adjusted for demographic, psychosocial, and health variables. Results: Sexual minority women had greater all-cause mortality risk than heterosexual women regardless of Veteran status (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.36) and women Veterans had greater all-cause mortality risk than non-Veterans regardless of sexual orientation (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.06–1.22), but the interaction between sexual orientation and Veteran status was not significant. Sexual minority women were also at greater risk than heterosexual women for cancer-specific mortality, with effects stronger among Veterans compared to non-Veterans (sexual minority × Veteran HR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.01–2.85). Implications: Postmenopausal sexual minority women in the United States, regardless of Veteran status, may be at higher risk for earlier death compared to heterosexuals. Sexual minority women Veterans may have higher risk of cancer-specific mortality compared to their heterosexual counterparts. Examining social determinants of longevity may be an important step to understanding and reducing these disparities. PMID:26768389

Joint association between body fat and its distribution with all-cause mortality: A data linkage cohort study based on NHANES (1988-2011)

PubMed Central

Peng, Yang; Wang, Zhiqiang; Adegbija, Odewumi; Hu, Jie; Ma, Jun; Ma, Ying-Hua

2018-01-01

Objective Although obesity is recognized as an important risk of mortality, how the amount and distribution of body fat affect mortality risk is unclear. Furthermore, whether fat distribution confers any additional risk of mortality in addition to fat amount is not understood. Methods This data linkage cohort study included 16415 participants (8554 females) aged 18 to 89 years from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (1988–1994) and its linked mortality data (31 December 2011). Cox proportional hazard models and parametric survival models were used to estimate the association between body fat percentage (BF%), based on bioelectrical impedance analysis, and waist-hip ratio (WHR) with mortality. Results A total of 4999 deaths occurred during 19-year follow-up. A U-shaped association between BF% and mortality was found in both sexes, with the adjusted hazard ratios for other groups between 1.02 (95% confidence interval: 0.89, 1.18) and 2.10 (1.47, 3.01) when BF% groups of 25–30% in males and 30–35% in females were used as references. A non-linear relationship between WHR and mortality was detected in males, with the adjusted hazard ratios among other groups ranging from 1.05 (0.94, 1.18) to 1.52 (1.15, 2.00) compared with the WHR category of 0.95–1.0. However in females, the death risk constantly increased across the WHR spectrum. Joint impact of BF% and WHR suggested males with BF% of 25–30% and WHR of 0.95–1.0 and females with BF% of 30–35% and WHR <0.9 were associated with the lowest mortality risk and longest survival age compared with their counterparts in other categories. Conclusions This study supported the use of body fat distribution in addition to fat amount in assessing the risk of all-cause mortality. PMID:29474498

AIDS-related and non-AIDS-related mortality in the Asia-Pacific region in the era of combination antiretroviral treatment.

PubMed

Falster, Kathleen; Choi, Jun Yong; Donovan, Basil; Duncombe, Chris; Mulhall, Brian; Sowden, David; Zhou, Jialun; Law, Matthew G

2009-11-13

Although studies have shown reductions in mortality from AIDS after the introduction of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART), little is known about cause-specific mortality in low-income settings in the cART era. We explored predictors of AIDS and non-AIDS mortality and compared cause-specific mortality across high-income and low-income settings in the Asia-Pacific region. We followed patients in the Asia Pacific HIV Observational Database from the date they started cART (or cohort enrolment if cART initiation was identified retrospectively), until the date of death or last follow-up visit. Competing risks methods were used to estimate the cumulative incidence, and to investigate predictors, of AIDS and non-AIDS mortality. Of 4252 patients, 215 died; 89 from AIDS, 97 from non-AIDS causes and 29 from unknown causes. Age more than 50 years [hazard ratio 4.29; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.10-8.79] and CD4 cell counts less than or equal to 100 cells/microl (hazard ratio 8.59; 95% CI 5.66-13.03) were associated with an increased risk of non-AIDS mortality. Risk factors for AIDS mortality included CD4 cell counts less than or equal to 100 cells/microl (hazard ratio 34.97; 95% CI 18.01-67.90) and HIV RNA 10 001 or more (hazard ratio 4.21; 95% CI 2.07-8.55). There was some indication of a lower risk of non-AIDS mortality in Asian high-income, and possibly low-income, countries compared to Australia. Immune deficiency is associated with an increased risk of AIDS and non-AIDS mortality. Older age predicts non-AIDS mortality in the cART era. Less conclusive was the association between country-income level and cause-specific mortality because of the relatively high proportion of unknown causes of death in low-income settings.

Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

PubMed Central

Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

2015-01-01

Introduction National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Methods Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Results The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien–Dindo grade 2–3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4–5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Discussion Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. Conclusions In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient. PMID:26468369

CPAP IMPACT: a protocol for a randomised trial of bubble continuous positive airway pressure versus standard care for high-risk children with severe pneumonia using adaptive design methods

PubMed Central

Smith, Andrew G; Eckerle, Michelle; Mvalo, Tisungane; Weir, Brian; Martinson, Francis; Chalira, Alfred; Lufesi, Norman; Mofolo, Innocent; Hosseinipour, Mina

2017-01-01

Introduction Pneumonia is a leading cause of mortality among children in low-resource settings. Mortality is greatest among children with high-risk conditions including HIV infection or exposure, severe malnutrition and/or severe hypoxaemia. WHO treatment recommendations include low-flow oxygen for children with severe pneumonia. Bubble continuous positive airway pressure (bCPAP) is a non-invasive support modality that provides positive end-expiratory pressure and oxygen. bCPAP is effective in the treatment of neonates in low-resource settings; its efficacy is unknown for high-risk children with severe pneumonia in low-resource settings. Methods and analysis CPAP IMPACT is a randomised clinical trial comparing bCPAP to low-flow oxygen in the treatment of severe pneumonia among high-risk children 1–59 months of age. High-risk children are stratified into two subgroups: (1) HIV infection or exposure and/or severe malnutrition; (2) severe hypoxaemia. The trial is being conducted in a Malawi district hospital and will enrol 900 participants. The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality rate of children treated with standard care as compared with bCPAP. Ethics and dissemination CPAP IMPACT has approval from the Institutional Review Boards of all investigators. An urgent need exists to determine whether bCPAP decreases mortality among high-risk children with severe pneumonia to inform resource utilisation in low-resource settings. Trial registration number NCT02484183; Pre-results. PMID:28883928

Intra-dialytic hypertension is associated with high mortality in hemodialysis patients

PubMed Central

Yoon, Kyu Tae; Gil, Hyo Wook; Hong, Sae Yong

2017-01-01

Background Intra-dialytic hypertension (IDH) is emerging as an important issue in hemodialysis patients. Its risk factors and clinical outcomes are unclear. Methods A total of 73 prevalent hemodialysis patients were enrolled. They included 14 (19.2%) patients with baseline IDH and 59 patients without IDH. Their clinical parameters, laboratory parameters, and mortality were investigated over 78 months. Results The risks factor of IDH included low serum potassium levels, low ultrafiltration, and low arm muscle area. Lower median survival was evident in the IDH group compared to the non-IDH group, but was not significantly different. After adjusting for relevant confounders for age, the IDH group displayed 2.846 times higher mortality rate than the non-IDH Group (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.846; 95% confidence interval: 1.081–7.490; P = 0.034). Conclusion IDH is associated with high mortality in hemodialysis patients. Clinicians should be aware of the risk factors. Future research studies are needed to explore the mechanisms involved in the association between IDH and mortality. PMID:28742805

The mortality risk score and the ADG score: two points-based scoring systems for the Johns Hopkins aggregated diagnosis groups to predict mortality in a general adult population cohort in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Walraven, Carl van

2011-10-01

Logistic regression models that incorporated age, sex, and indicator variables for the Johns Hopkins' Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADGs) categories have been shown to accurately predict all-cause mortality in adults. To develop 2 different point-scoring systems using the ADGs. The Mortality Risk Score (MRS) collapses age, sex, and the ADGs to a single summary score that predicts the annual risk of all-cause death in adults. The ADG Score derives weights for the individual ADG diagnosis groups. : Retrospective cohort constructed using population-based administrative data. All 10,498,413 residents of Ontario, Canada, between the age of 20 and 100 years who were alive on their birthday in 2007, participated in this study. Participants were randomly divided into derivation and validation samples. : Death within 1 year. In the derivation cohort, the MRS ranged from -21 to 139 (median value 29, IQR 17 to 44). In the validation group, a logistic regression model with the MRS as the sole predictor significantly predicted the risk of 1-year mortality with a c-statistic of 0.917. A regression model with age, sex, and the ADG Score has similar performance. Both methods accurately predicted the risk of 1-year mortality across the 20 vigintiles of risk. The MRS combined values for a person's age, sex, and the John Hopkins ADGs to accurately predict 1-year mortality in adults. The ADG Score is a weighted score representing the presence or absence of the 32 ADG diagnosis groups. These scores will facilitate health services researchers conducting risk adjustment using administrative health care databases.

Using spatial mark-recapture for conservation monitoring of grizzly bear populations in Alberta.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2018-03-26

One of the challenges in conservation is determining patterns and responses in population density and distribution as it relates to habitat and changes in anthropogenic activities. We applied spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) methods, combined with density surface modelling from five grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) management areas (BMAs) in Alberta, Canada, to assess SECR methods and to explore factors influencing bear distribution. Here we used models of grizzly bear habitat and mortality risk to test local density associations using density surface modelling. Results demonstrated BMA-specific factors influenced density, as well as the effects of habitat and topography on detections and movements of bears. Estimates from SECR were similar to those from closed population models and telemetry data, but with similar or higher levels of precision. Habitat was most associated with areas of higher bear density in the north, whereas mortality risk was most associated (negatively) with density of bears in the south. Comparisons of the distribution of mortality risk and habitat revealed differences by BMA that in turn influenced local abundance of bears. Combining SECR methods with density surface modelling increases the resolution of mark-recapture methods by directly inferring the effect of spatial factors on regulating local densities of animals.

Analysis of Observational Studies in the Presence of Treatment Selection Bias: Effects of Invasive Cardiac Management on AMI Survival Using Propensity Score and Instrumental Variable Methods

PubMed Central

Stukel, Thérèse A.; Fisher, Elliott S; Wennberg, David E.; Alter, David A.; Gottlieb, Daniel J.; Vermeulen, Marian J.

2007-01-01

Context Comparisons of outcomes between patients treated and untreated in observational studies may be biased due to differences in patient prognosis between groups, often because of unobserved treatment selection biases. Objective To compare 4 analytic methods for removing the effects of selection bias in observational studies: multivariable model risk adjustment, propensity score risk adjustment, propensity-based matching, and instrumental variable analysis. Design, Setting, and Patients A national cohort of 122 124 patients who were elderly (aged 65–84 years), receiving Medicare, and hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 1994–1995, and who were eligible for cardiac catheterization. Baseline chart reviews were taken from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project and linked to Medicare health administrative data to provide a rich set of prognostic variables. Patients were followed up for 7 years through December 31, 2001, to assess the association between long-term survival and cardiac catheterization within 30 days of hospital admission. Main Outcome Measure Risk-adjusted relative mortality rate using each of the analytic methods. Results Patients who received cardiac catheterization (n=73 238) were younger and had lower AMI severity than those who did not. After adjustment for prognostic factors by using standard statistical risk-adjustment methods, cardiac catheterization was associated with a 50% relative decrease in mortality (for multivariable model risk adjustment: adjusted relative risk [RR], 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50–0.52; for propensity score risk adjustment: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.53–0.55; and for propensity-based matching: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.52–0.56). Using regional catheterization rate as an instrument, instrumental variable analysis showed a 16% relative decrease in mortality (adjusted RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79–0.90). The survival benefits of routine invasive care from randomized clinical trials are between 8% and 21 %. Conclusions Estimates of the observational association of cardiac catheterization with long-term AMI mortality are highly sensitive to analytic method. All standard risk-adjustment methods have the same limitations regarding removal of unmeasured treatment selection biases. Compared with standard modeling, instrumental variable analysis may produce less biased estimates of treatment effects, but is more suited to answering policy questions than specific clinical questions. PMID:17227979

Socioeconomic factors and adolescent pregnancy outcomes: distinctions between neonatal and post-neonatal deaths?

PubMed Central

Markovitz, Barry P; Cook, Rebeka; Flick, Louise H; Leet, Terry L

2005-01-01

Background Young maternal age has long been associated with higher infant mortality rates, but the role of socioeconomic factors in this association has been controversial. We sought to investigate the relationships between infant mortality (distinguishing neonatal from post-neonatal deaths), socioeconomic status and maternal age in a large, retrospective cohort study. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study using linked birth-death certificate data for Missouri residents during 1997–1999. Infant mortality rates for all singleton births to adolescent women (12–17 years, n = 10,131; 18–19 years, n = 18,954) were compared to those for older women (20–35 years, n = 28,899). Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all potential associations. Results The risk of infant (OR 1.95, CI 1.54–2.48), neonatal (1.69, 1.24–2.31) and post-neonatal mortality (2.47, 1.70–3.59) were significantly higher for younger adolescent (12–17 years) than older (20–34 years) mothers. After adjusting for race, marital status, age-appropriate education level, parity, smoking status, prenatal care utilization, and poverty status (indicated by participation in WIC, food stamps or Medicaid), the risk of post-neonatal mortality (1.73, 1.14–2.64) but not neonatal mortality (1.43, 0.98–2.08) remained significant for younger adolescent mothers. There were no differences in neonatal or post-neonatal mortality risks for older adolescent (18–19 years) mothers. Conclusion Socioeconomic factors may largely explain the increased neonatal mortality risk among younger adolescent mothers but not the increase in post-neonatal mortality risk. PMID:16042801

Association of Coffee Consumption with Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Three Large Prospective Cohorts

PubMed Central

Ding, Ming; Satija, Ambika; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Hu, Yang; Sun, Qi; Han, Jiali; Lopez-Garcia, Esther; Willett, Walter; van Dam, Rob M.; Hu, Frank B.

2015-01-01

Background The association between consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and risk of mortality remains inconclusive. Methods and Results We examined the associations of consumption of total, caffeinated, and decaffeinated coffee with risk of subsequent total and cause-specific mortality among 74,890 women in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), 93,054 women in the NHS 2, and 40,557 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Coffee consumption was assessed at baseline using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. During 4,690,072 person-years of follow-up, 19,524 women and 12,432 men died. Consumption of total, caffeinated, and decaffeinated coffee were non-linearly associated with mortality. Compared to non-drinkers, coffee consumption one to five cups/d was associated with lower risk of mortality, while coffee consumption more than five cups/d was not associated with risk of mortality. However, when restricting to never smokers, compared to non-drinkers, the HRs of mortality were 0.94 (0.89 to 0.99) for ≤ 1 cup/d, 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97) for 1.1-3 cups/d, 0.85 (0.79 to 0.92) for 3.1-5 cups/d, and 0.88 (0.78 to 0.99) for > 5 cups/d (p for non-linearity = 0.32; p for trend < 0.001). Significant inverse associations were observed for caffeinated (p for trend < 0.001) and decaffeinated coffee (p for trend = 0.022). Significant inverse associations were observed between coffee consumption and deaths due to cardiovascular disease, neurological diseases, and suicide. No significant association between coffee consumption and total cancer mortality was found. Conclusions Higher consumption of total coffee, caffeinated coffee, and decaffeinated coffee was associated with lower risk of total mortality. PMID:26572796

Perforated peptic ulcer in southeastern Taiwan.

PubMed

Li, Chin-Hsien; Chang, Wen-Hsiung; Shih, Shou-Chuan; Lin, Shee-Chan; Bair, Ming-Jong

2010-09-01

No studies focus on the population with perforated peptic ulcer in southeastern Taiwan. The present study aimed to assess the differences between the different races and the risk factors related to mortality and morbidity in postoperative patients in southeastern Taiwan. The medical records of 237 patients were reviewed retrospectively. The following factors were analyzed: patient profiles, coexisting illnesses, diagnostic method, fever, preoperative shock, clinical data at emergency room, delay operation, site of perforation, operative method, positive ascites culture, species of microbes in ascites culture, postoperative complications, death and the length of hospital stay. Aborigines were significantly different from non-aborigines in the ratio of female cases and in the habits of alcohol drinking and betel nut chewing. There were also four significantly different variables between them: fever, hemoglobin value, site of perforation and operative method. Total postoperative complication rate was 41.3% and 39 patients (16.6%) died. In multivariate analysis, age > or = 65 years, lipase > upper normal limit and preoperative shock were independent predictors of mortality. Significant risk factors associated with morbidity were NSAIDs use, creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL and preoperative shock. Aborigines were different from non-aborigines in several categories. In southeastern Taiwan, NSAIDs use, creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL and preoperative shock were independent risk factors of morbidity, and age > or = 65 years, lipase > upper normal limit and preoperative shock were independent risk factors of mortality in postoperative perforated peptic ulcer. Lipase > upper normal limit is needed for further research on the influence on mortality.

Trends in mortality from skin diseases in the United States: skin infectious diseases are claiming more lives.

PubMed

Fleischer, Alan B

2016-07-15

BackgroundAlthough there has been some excellent work published on the mortality from non-neoplastic skin disease In the United States, further analysis of trends is limited.MethodsData from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for mortality abstracted from Death Certificates was obtained from the WONDER (wide-ranging online data for epidemiologic research) system from 1999 to 2014. Categorical variables were analyzed with Excel 2013 data analysis software using Chi-squared tests whereas regression was performed for trends.ResultsCrude death rates were highest in the South, especially in Mississippi and Louisiana. This work also confirmed that Blacks or African Americans had higher risk of death from skin disease, whereas Hispanic or Latinos had lower risk. Overall mortality from non-neoplastic diseases is increasing over time and significant increases in mortality from infectious and papulosquamous diseases were observed, whereas there appears to be decreasing mortality from dermatitis and miscellaneous skin disorders (ICD-10-CM L80-90).ConclusionsMortality is increasing from non-neoplastic diseases, especially infectious and papulosquamous diseases. Demographic factors such age race and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity also confer differential risk.

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology

PubMed Central

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-01-01

Background Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. Methods A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Conclusion Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence. PMID:19566928

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Association between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and Respiratory Disease in China.

PubMed

Sun, Jiyao; Barnes, Andrew J; He, Dongyang; Wang, Meng; Wang, Jian

2017-06-16

Objective: This study aimed to assess the quantitative effects of short-term exposure of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) on respiratory disease (RD) mortality and RD hospital admission in China through systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: A total of 29 publications were finally selected from searches in PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI and Wanfang databases. Generic inverse variance method was used to pool effect estimates. Pooled estimates were used to represent the increased risk of RD mortality and RD hospital admission per 10 μg/m³ increase in NO₂ concentration. Results: Positive correlations were found between short-term NO₂ exposure and RD in China. RD mortality and RD hospital admission respectively increased by 1.4% (95% CI: 1.1%, 1.7%) and 1.0% (95% CI: 0.5%, 1.5%) per 10 μg/m³ increase in NO₂ concentration. Differences were observed across geographic regions of China. The risk of RD mortality due to NO₂ was higher in the southern region (1.7%) than in the north (0.7%). Conclusions : Evidence was found that short-term exposure to NO₂ was associated with an increased risk of RD mortality and RD hospital admission in China and these risks were more pronounced in the southern regions of the country, due in part to a larger proportion of elderly persons with increased susceptibility to NO₂ in the population compared with the north.

Proximal risk factors and suicide methods among suicide completers from national suicide mortality data 2004-2006 in Korea.

PubMed

Im, Jeong-Soo; Choi, Soon Ho; Hong, Duho; Seo, Hwa Jeong; Park, Subin; Hong, Jin Pyo

2011-01-01

This study was conducted to examine differences in proximal risk factors and suicide methods by sex and age in the national suicide mortality data in Korea. Data were collected from the National Police Agency and the National Statistical Office of Korea on suicide completers from 2004 to 2006. The 31,711 suicide case records were used to analyze suicide rates, methods, and proximal risk factors by sex and age. Suicide rate increased with age, especially in men. The most common proximal risk factor for suicide was medical illness in both sexes. The most common proximal risk factor for subjects younger than 30 years was found to be a conflict in relationships with family members, partner, or friends. Medical illness was found to increase in prevalence as a risk factor with age. Hanging/Suffocation was the most common suicide method used by both sexes. The use of drug/pesticide poisoning to suicide increased with age. A fall from height or hanging/suffocation was more popular in the younger age groups. Because proximal risk factors and suicide methods varied with sex and age, different suicide prevention measures are required after consideration of both of these parameters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality of aircraft maintenance workers exposed to trichloroethylene and other hydrocarbons and chemicals: extended follow up

PubMed Central

Radican, Larry; Blair, Aaron; Stewart, Patricia; Wartenberg, Daniel

2009-01-01

Objective To extend follow-up of 14,455 workers from 1990 to 2000, and evaluate mortality risk from exposure to trichloroethylene (TCE) and other chemicals. Methods Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate relative risk for exposed vs. unexposed workers based on previously developed exposure surrogates. Results Among TCE exposed workers, there was no statistically significant increased risk of all-cause mortality (RR=1.04) or death from all cancers (RR=1.03). Exposure-response gradients for TCE were relatively flat and did not materially change since 1990. Statistically significant excesses were found for several chemical exposure subgroups and causes, and were generally consistent with the previous follow up. Conclusions Patterns of mortality have not changed substantially since 1990. While positive associations with several cancers were observed, and are consistent with the published literature, interpretation is limited due to the small numbers of events for specific exposures. PMID:19001957

Mortality following the Haitian earthquake of 2010: a stratified cluster survey

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Research that seeks to better understand vulnerability to earthquakes and risk factors associated with mortality in low resource settings is critical to earthquake preparedness and response efforts. This study aims to characterize mortality and associated risk factors in the 2010 Haitian earthquake. Methods In January 2011, a survey of the earthquake affected Haitian population was conducted in metropolitan Port-au-Prince. A stratified 60x20 cluster design (n = 1200 households) was used with 30 clusters sampled in both camp and neighborhood locations. Households were surveyed regarding earthquake impact, current living conditions, and unmet needs. Results Mortality was estimated at 24 deaths (confidence interval [CI]: 20–28) per 1,000 in the sample population. Using two approaches, extrapolation of the survey mortality rate to the exposed population yielded mortality estimates ranging from a low of 49,033 to a high of 86,555. No significant difference in mortality was observed by sex (p = .786); however, age was significant with adults age 50+ years facing increased mortality risk. Odds of death were not significantly higher in camps, with 27 deaths per 1,000 (CI: 22–34), compared to neighborhoods, where the death rate was 19 per 1,000 (CI: 15–25; p = 0.080). Crowding and residence in a multistory building were also associated with increased risk of death. Conclusions Haiti earthquake mortality estimates are widely varied, though epidemiologic surveys conducted to date suggest lower levels of mortality than officially reported figures. Strategies to mitigate future mortality burden in future earthquakes should consider improvements to the built environment that are feasible in urban resource-poor settings. PMID:23618373

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min

2013-01-01

Background: Climate change is anticipated to influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, estimates of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves are subject to large uncertainties and have not been projected under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated future heat wave mortality in the eastern United States (approximately 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and investigated sources of uncertainty. Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057–2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. We apportioned the sources of uncertainty in excess mortality estimates using a variance-decomposition method. Results: Estimates suggest that excess mortality attributable to heat waves in the eastern United States would result in 200–7,807 deaths/year (mean 2,379 deaths/year) in 2057–2059. Average excess mortality projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1,403 and 3,556 deaths/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern states and eastern coastal areas (excluding Maine). The major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non–heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: Mortality risks from future heat waves may be an order of magnitude higher than the mortality risks reported in 2002–2004, with thousands of heat wave–related deaths per year in the study area projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. Substantial spatial variability in county-level heat mortality estimates suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data. Citation: Wu J, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Kim YM, Liu Y. 2014. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 122:10–16; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306670 PMID:24192064

Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

PubMed Central

Smith, Jim T

2007-01-01

Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the) major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident) with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks. PMID:17407581

Risk factors influencing morbidity and mortality in perforated peptic ulcer disease

PubMed Central

Taş, İlhan; Ülger, Burak Veli; Önder, Akın; Kapan, Murat; Bozdağ, Zübeyir

2015-01-01

Objective: Peptic ulcer perforation continues to be a major surgical problem. In this study, risk factors that influence morbidity and mortality in perforated peptic ulcer disease were examined. Material and Methods: Files of 148 patients who were included in the study due to peptic ulcer perforation between January 2006 and December 2010 were retrospectively analyzed. Data regarding age, gender, complaints, time elapsed between onset of symptoms and hospital admission, physical examination findings, co-morbid diseases, laboratory and imaging findings, length of hospital stay, morbidity and mortality were recorded. Results: The study group included 129 (87.2%) male and 19 (12.8%) female patients. The mean age was 51.7±20 (15-88) years. Forty five patients (30.4%) had at least one co-morbid disease. In the postoperative period, 30 patients (20.3%) had complications. The most common complication was wound infection. Mortality was observed in 27 patients (18.2%). The most common cause of mortality was sepsis. Multivariate analysis revealed age over 60 years, presence of co-morbidities and Mannheim peritonitis index as independent risk factors for morbidity. Age over 60 years, time to admission and Mannheim peritonitis index were detected as independent risk factors for mortality. Conclusion: Early diagnosis and proper treatment are important in patients presenting with peptic ulcer perforation. PMID:25931940

The Relationship of Walking Intensity to Total and Cause-Specific Mortality. Results from the National Walkers’ Health Study

PubMed Central

Williams, Paul T.; Thompson, Paul D.

2013-01-01

Purpose Test whether: 1) walking intensity predicts mortality when adjusted for walking energy expenditure, and 2) slow walking pace (≥24-minute mile) identifies subjects at substantially elevated risk for mortality. Methods Hazard ratios from Cox proportional survival analyses of all-cause and cause-specific mortality vs. usual walking pace (min/mile) in 7,374 male and 31,607 female recreational walkers. Survival times were left censored for age at entry into the study. Other causes of death were treated as a competing risk for the analyses of cause-specific mortality. All analyses were adjusted for sex, education, baseline smoking, prior heart attack, aspirin use, diet, BMI, and walking energy expenditure. Deaths within one year of baseline were excluded. Results The National Death Index identified 1968 deaths during the average 9.4-year mortality surveillance. Each additional minute per mile in walking pace was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes (1.8% increase, P=10-5), cardiovascular diseases (2.4% increase, P=0.001, 637 deaths), ischemic heart disease (2.8% increase, P=0.003, 336 deaths), heart failure (6.5% increase, P=0.001, 36 deaths), hypertensive heart disease (6.2% increase, P=0.01, 31 deaths), diabetes (6.3% increase, P=0.004, 32 deaths), and dementia (6.6% increase, P=0.0004, 44 deaths). Those reporting a pace slower than a 24-minute mile were at increased risk for mortality due to all-causes (44.3% increased risk, P=0.0001), cardiovascular diseases (43.9% increased risk, P=0.03), and dementia (5.0-fold increased risk, P=0.0002) even though they satisfied the current exercise recommendations by walking ≥7.5 metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours per week. Conclusions The risk for mortality: 1) decreases in association with walking intensity, and 2) increases substantially in association for walking pace ≥24 minute mile (equivalent to <400m during a six-minute walk test) even among subjects who exercise regularly. PMID:24260542

All-Cause Mortality Among US Veterans of the Persian Gulf War

PubMed Central

Kang, Han K.; Bullman, Tim

2016-01-01

Objective: We determined cause-specific mortality prevalence and risks of Gulf War deployed and nondeployed veterans to determine if deployed veterans were at greater risk than nondeployed veterans for death overall or because of certain diseases or conditions up to 13 years after conflict subsided. Methods: Follow-up began when the veteran left the Gulf War theater or May 1, 1991, and ended on the date of death or December 31, 2004. We studied 621   901 veterans who served in the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War and 746   247 veterans who served but were not deployed during the Gulf War. We used Cox proportional hazard models to calculate rate ratios adjusted for age at entry to follow-up, length of follow-up, race, sex, branch of service, and military unit. We compared the mortality of (1) Gulf War veterans with non–Gulf War veterans and (2) Gulf War army veterans potentially exposed to nerve agents at Khamisiyah in March 1991 with those not exposed. We compared standardized mortality ratios of deployed and nondeployed Gulf War veterans with the US population. Results: Male Gulf War veterans had a lower risk of mortality than male non–Gulf War veterans (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95-0.99), and female Gulf War veterans had a higher risk of mortality than female non–Gulf War veterans (aRR = 1.15; 95% CI, 1.03-1.28). Khamisiyah-exposed Gulf War army veterans had >3 times the risk of mortality from cirrhosis of the liver than nonexposed army Gulf War veterans (aRR = 3.73; 95% CI, 1.64-8.48). Compared with the US population, female Gulf War veterans had a 60% higher risk of suicide and male Gulf War veterans had a lower risk of suicide (standardized mortality ratio = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.80-0.88). Conclusion: The vital status and mortality risk of Gulf War and non–Gulf War veterans should continue to be investigated. PMID:28123229

Heart rate deceleration runs for postinfarction risk prediction.

PubMed

Guzik, Przemyslaw; Piskorski, Jaroslaw; Barthel, Petra; Bauer, Axel; Müller, Alexander; Junk, Nadine; Ulm, Kurt; Malik, Marek; Schmidt, Georg

2012-01-01

A method for counting episodes of uninterrupted beat-to-beat heart rate decelerations was developed. The method was set up and evaluated using 24-hour electrocardiogram Holter recordings of 1455 (training sample) and 946 (validation sample) postinfarction patients. During a median follow-up of 24 months, 70, 46, and 19 patients of the training sample suffered from total, cardiac, and sudden cardiac mortality, respectively. In the validation sample, these numbers were 39, 25, and 15. Episodes of consecutive beat-to-beat heart rate decelerations (deceleration runs [DRs]) were characterized by their length. Deceleration runs of 2 to 10 cycles were significantly less frequent in nonsurvivors. Multivariate model of DRs of 2, 4, and 8 cycles identified low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. In these groups of the training sample, the total mortalities were 1.8%, 6.1%, and 24%, respectively. In the validation sample, these numbers were 1.8%, 4.1%, and 21.9%. Infrequent DRs during 24-hour Holter indicate high risk of postinfarction mortality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology.

PubMed

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-06-30

Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

Parental Incarceration and Child Mortality in Denmark

PubMed Central

Andersen, Signe Hald; Lee, Hedwig; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2014-01-01

Objectives. We used Danish registry data to examine the association between parental incarceration and child mortality risk. Methods. We used a sample of all Danish children born in 1991 linked with parental information. We conducted discrete-time survival analysis separately for boys (n = 30 146) and girls (n = 28 702) to estimate the association of paternal and maternal incarceration with child mortality, controlling for parental sociodemographic characteristics. We followed the children until age 20 years or death, whichever came first. Results. Results indicated a positive association between paternal and maternal imprisonment and male child mortality. Paternal imprisonment was associated with lower child mortality risks for girls. The relationship between maternal imprisonment and female child mortality changed directions depending on the model, suggesting no clear association. Conclusions. These results indicate that the incarceration of a parent may influence child mortality but that it is important to consider the gender of both the child and the incarcerated parent. PMID:24432916

Non-Malignant Respiratory Disease Among Workers in Industries Using Styrene—A Review of the Evidence

PubMed Central

Nett, Randall J.; Cox-Ganser, Jean M.; Hubbs, Ann F.; Ruder, Avima M.; Cummings, Kristin J.; Huang, Yuh-Chin T.; Kreiss, Kathleen

2017-01-01

Background Asthma and obliterative bronchiolitis (OB) cases have occurred among styrene-exposed workers. We aimed to investigate styrene as a risk factor for non-malignant respiratory disease (NMRD). Methods From a literature review, we identified case reports and assessed cross-sectional and mortality studies for strength of evidence of positive association (i.e., strong, intermediate, suggestive, none) between styrene exposure and NMRD-related morbidity and mortality. Results We analyzed 55 articles and two unpublished case reports. Ten OB cases and eight asthma cases were identified. Six (75%) asthma cases had abnormal styrene inhalation challenges. Thirteen (87%) of 15 cross-sectional studies and 12 (50%) of 24 mortality studies provided at least suggestive evidence that styrene was associated with NMRD-related morbidity or mortality. Six (66%) of nine mortality studies assessing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related mortality indicated excess mortality. Conclusions Available evidence suggests styrene exposure is a potential risk factor for NMRD. Additional studies of styrene-exposed workers are warranted. PMID:28079275

Usefulness of the addition of beta-2-microglobulin, cystatin C and C-reactive protein to an established risk factors model to improve mortality risk prediction in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

PubMed

Nead, Kevin T; Zhou, Margaret J; Caceres, Roxanne Diaz; Sharp, Stephen J; Wehner, Mackenzie R; Olin, Jeffrey W; Cooke, John P; Leeper, Nicholas J

2013-03-15

Evidence-based therapies are available to reduce the risk for death from cardiovascular disease, yet many patients go untreated. Novel methods are needed to identify those at highest risk for cardiovascular death. In this study, the biomarkers β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein were measured at baseline in a cohort of participants who underwent coronary angiography. Adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models were used to determine whether the biomarkers predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Additionally, improvements in risk reclassification and discrimination were evaluated by calculating the net reclassification improvement, C-index, and integrated discrimination improvement with the addition of the biomarkers to a baseline model of risk factors for cardiovascular disease and death. During a median follow-up period of 5.6 years, there were 78 deaths among 470 participants. All biomarkers independently predicted future all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A significant improvement in risk reclassification was observed for all-cause (net reclassification improvement 35.8%, p = 0.004) and cardiovascular (net reclassification improvement 61.9%, p = 0.008) mortality compared to the baseline risk factors model. Additionally, there was significantly increased risk discrimination with C-indexes of 0.777 (change in C-index 0.057, 95% confidence interval 0.016 to 0.097) and 0.826 (change in C-index 0.071, 95% confidence interval 0.010 to 0.133) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. Improvements in risk discrimination were further supported using the integrated discrimination improvement index. In conclusion, this study provides evidence that β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein predict mortality and improve risk reclassification and discrimination for a high-risk cohort of patients who undergo coronary angiography. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A non-exercise testing method for estimating cardiorespiratory fitness: associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a pooled analysis of eight population-based cohorts.

PubMed

Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Hamer, Mark; O'Donovan, Gary; Batty, George David; Kivimaki, Mika

2013-03-01

Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a key predictor of chronic disease, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD), but its assessment usually requires exercise testing which is impractical and costly in most health-care settings. Non-exercise testing cardiorespiratory fitness (NET-F)-estimating methods are a less resource-demanding alternative, but their predictive capacity for CVD and total mortality has yet to be tested. The objective of this study is to examine the association of a validated NET-F algorithm with all-cause and CVD mortality. The participants were 32,319 adults (14,650 men) aged 35-70 years who took part in eight Health Survey for England and Scottish Health Survey studies between 1994 and 2003. Non-exercise testing cardiorespiratory fitness (a metabolic equivalent of VO2max) was calculated using age, sex, body mass index (BMI), resting heart rate, and self-reported physical activity. We followed participants for mortality until 2008. Two thousand one hundred and sixty-five participants died (460 cardiovascular deaths) during a mean 9.0 [standard deviation (SD) = 3.6] year follow-up. After adjusting for potential confounders including diabetes, hypertension, smoking, social class, alcohol, and depression, a higher fitness score according to the NET-F was associated with a lower risk of mortality from all-causes (hazard ratio per SD increase in NET-F 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.93 in men; 0.88, 0.80-0.98 in women) and CVD (men: 0.75, 0.63-0.90; women: 0.73, 0.60-0.92). Non-exercise testing cardiorespiratory fitness had a better discriminative ability than any of its components (CVD mortality c-statistic: NET-F = 0.70-0.74; BMI = 0.45-0.59; physical activity = 0.60-0.64; resting heart rate = 0.57-0.61). The sensitivity of the NET-F algorithm to predict events occurring in the highest risk quintile was better for CVD (0.49 in both sexes) than all-cause mortality (0.44 and 0.40 for men and women, respectively). The specificity for all-cause and CVD mortality ranged between 0.80 and 0.82. The net reclassification improvement of CVD mortality risk (vs. a standardized aggregate score of the modifiable components of NET-F) was 27.2 and 21.0% for men and women, respectively. The CRF-estimating method NET-F that does not involve exercise testing showed consistent associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and it had good discrimination and excellent risk reclassification improvement. As such, it merits further attention as a practical and potentially and useful risk prediction tool.

Plasma and blood viscosity in the prediction of cardiovascular disease and mortality in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort Study.

PubMed

Peters, Sanne Ae; Woodward, Mark; Rumley, Ann; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh D; Lowe, Gordon DO

2017-01-01

Background There is increasing evidence that blood viscosity and its major determinants (haematocrit and plasma viscosity) are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality; however, their predictive value for CVD and mortality is not clear. Methods We prospectively assessed the added predictive value of plasma viscosity and whole blood viscosity and haematocrit in 3386 men and women aged 30-74 years participating in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort study. Results Over a median follow-up of 17 years, 819 CVD events and 778 deaths were recorded. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for a 1 SD increase in plasma viscosity, adjusted for major CVD risk factors, were 1.12 (1.04-1.20) for CVD and 1.20 (1.12-1.29) for mortality. These remained significant after further adjustment for plasma fibrinogen: 1.09 (1.01-1.18) and 1.13 (1.04-1.22). The corresponding results for blood viscosity were 0.99 (0.90, 1.09) for CVD, and 1.11 (1.01, 1.22) for total mortality after adjustment for major CVD risk factors; and 0.97 (0.88, 1.08) and 1.06 (0.96, 1.18) after further adjustment for fibrinogen. Haematocrit showed similar associations to blood viscosity. When added to classical CVD risk factors, plasma viscosity improved the discrimination of CVD and mortality by 2.4% (0.7-4.4%) and 4.1% (2.0-6.5%). Conclusions Although plasma and blood viscosity may have a role in the pathogenesis of CVD and mortality, much of their association with CVD and mortality is due to the mutual effects of major CVD risk factors. However, plasma viscosity adds to the discrimination of CVD and mortality and might be considered for inclusion in multivariable risk scores.

The Effects of Intra-Aortic Balloon Pumps on Mortality in Patients Undergoing High-Risk Coronary Revascularization: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and Stenting Era

PubMed Central

Wan, You-Dong; Sun, Tong-Wen; Kan, Quan-Cheng; Guan, Fang-Xia; Liu, Zi-Qi; Zhang, Shu-Guang

2016-01-01

Background Intra-aortic balloon pumps (IABP) have generally been used for patients undergoing high-risk mechanical coronary revascularization. However, there is still insufficient evidence to determine whether they can improve outcomes in reperfusion therapy patients, mainly by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with stenting or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). This study was designed to determine the difference between high-risk mechanical coronary revascularization with and without IABPs on mortality, by performing a meta-analysis on randomized controlled trials of the current era. Methods Pubmed and Embase databases were searched from inception to May 2015. Unpublished data were obtained from the investigators. Randomized clinical trials of IABP and non-IABP in high-risk coronary revascularization procedures (PCI or CABG) were included. In the case of PCI procedures, stents should be used in more than 80% of patients. Numbers of events at the short-term and long-term follow-up were extracted. Results A total of 12 randomized trials enrolling 2155 patients were included. IABPs did not significantly decrease short-term mortality (relative risk (RR) 0.66; 95% CI, 0.42–1.01), or long-term mortality (RR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.47–1.35), with low heterogeneity across the studies. The findings remained stable in patients with acute myocardial infarction with or without cardiogenic shock. But in high-risk CABG patients, IABP was associated with reduced mortality (71 events in 846 patients; RR 0.40; 95%CI 0.25–0.67). Conclusion In patients undergoing high-risk coronary revascularization, IABP did not significantly decrease mortality. But high-risk CABG patients may be benefit from IABP. Rigorous criteria should be applied to the use of IABPs. PMID:26784578

The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study

PubMed Central

Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2016-01-01

Introduction The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. Methods We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Results Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75–1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA <0.0001). Risk stratification by combining ProADM within cut-off groups and the triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Conclusions Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out). PMID:28005916

Risk Factor Effects and Total Mortality in Older Japanese Men in Japan and Hawaii

PubMed Central

Abbott, Robert D.; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Hozawa, Atsushi; Okamura, Tomonori; Kadowaki, Takashi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okuda, Nagako; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Okayama, Akira; Kita, Yoshikuni; Rodriguez, Beatriz L.; Yano, Katsuhiko; Curb, J. David

2017-01-01

Purpose To identify factors related to total mortality in older Japanese men in Japan and Hawaii. Methods Baseline data were collected from 1980 to 1982 in 1,379 men in Hawaii and 954 men in Japan. Ages ranged from 61 to 81 years with mortality follow-up over a 19 year period. Results Compared to Japan, men in Hawaii had a 2-fold excess of diabetes and a 4-fold excess of prevalent coronary heart disease (p<0.001). Total cholesterol and body mass index were also higher in Hawaii (p<0.001). In contrast, men in Japan had higher systolic blood pressure and were nearly 3-times more likely to smoke cigarettes (p<0.001). Although each cohort had elements of a poor risk factor profile, there was a 1.4-fold excess in the risk of death in Japan (49.4 vs. 36.2/1,000 person-years, p<0.001). While mortality was similar after risk factor adjustment, only blood pressure and cigarette smoking accounted for the higher risk of death in Japan. Conclusions Cigarette smoking and hypertension explain much of the excess mortality in Japan versus Hawaii. In this comparison of genetically similar cohorts, evidence further suggests that Japanese in Japan are equally susceptible to develop the same adverse risk factor conditions that exist in Hawaii. PMID:19041590

Developing a Pictorial Sisterhood Method in collaboration with illiterate Maasai traditional birth attendants in northern Tanzania.

PubMed

Roggeveen, Yadira; Schreuder, Renske; Zweekhorst, Marjolein; Manyama, Mange; Hatfield, Jennifer; Scheele, Fedde; van Roosmalen, Jos

2016-10-01

To study whether data on maternal mortality can be gathered while maintaining local ownership of data in a pastoralist setting where a scarcity of data sources and a culture of silence around maternal death amplifies limited awareness of the magnitude of maternal mortality. As part of a participatory action research project, investigators and illiterate traditional birth attendants (TBAs) collaboratively developed a quantitative participatory tool-the Pictorial Sisterhood Method-that was pilot-tested between March 12 and May 30, 2011, by researchers and TBAs in a cross-sectional study. Fourteen TBAs interviewed 496 women (sample), which led to 2241 sister units of risk and a maternal mortality ratio of 689 deaths per 100000 live births (95% confidence interval 419-959). Researchers interviewed 474 women (sample), leading to 1487 sister units of risk and a maternal mortality ratio of 484 (95% confidence interval 172-795). The Pictorial Sisterhood Method is an innovative application that might increase the participation of illiterate individuals in maternal health research and advocacy. It offers interesting opportunities to increase maternal mortality data ownership and awareness, and warrants further study and validation. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Altered blood glucose concentration is associated with risk of death among patients with community-acquired Gram-negative rod bacteremia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Altered blood glucose concentration is commonly observed in patients with sepsis, even among those without hypoglycemic treatments or history of diabetes mellitus. These alterations in blood glucose are potentially detrimental, although the precise relationship with outcome in patients with bacteremia has not been yet determined. Methods A retrospective cohort study design for analyzing patients with Gram negative rod bacteremia was employed, with the main outcome measure being in-hospital mortality. Patients were stratified in quintiles accordingly deviation of the blood glucose concentration from a central value with lowest mortality. Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used for determining the relationship of same day of bacteremia blood glucose and death. Results Of 869 patients identified 63 (7.4%) died. Same day of bacteremia blood glucose concentration had a U-shaped relationship with in-hospital mortality. The lowest mortality (2%) was detected in the range of blood glucose concentration from 150 to 160 mg/dL. Greater deviation of blood glucose concentration from the central value of this range (155 mg/dL, reference value) was directly associated with higher risk of death (p = 0.002, chi for trend). The low-risk group (quintile 1) had a mortality of 3.3%, intermediate-risk group (quintiles 2, 3 and 4) a mortality of 7.1%, and the high-risk group (quintile 5) a mortality of 12.05%. In a multivariable Cox regression model, the hazard ratio for death among patients in the intermediate-risk group as compared with that in the low risk group was 2.88 (95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 8.18; P = 0.048), and for the high risk group it was 4.26 (95% confidence interval, 1.41 to 12.94; P = 0.01). Conclusions Same day of bacteremia blood glucose concentration is related with outcome of patients with Gram-negative rod bacteremia. Lowest mortality is detected in patients with blood glucose concentration in an interval of 150-160 mg/dL. Deviations from these values are associated with an increased risk of death. PMID:20569435

The Dutch Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratio (HSMR) method and cardiac surgery: benchmarking in a national cohort using hospital administration data versus a clinical database

PubMed Central

Siregar, S; Pouw, M E; Moons, K G M; Versteegh, M I M; Bots, M L; van der Graaf, Y; Kalkman, C J; van Herwerden, L A; Groenwold, R H H

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the accuracy of data from hospital administration databases and a national clinical cardiac surgery database and to compare the performance of the Dutch hospital standardised mortality ratio (HSMR) method and the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, for the purpose of benchmarking of mortality across hospitals. Methods Information on all patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2010 in 10 centres was extracted from The Netherlands Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery database and the Hospital Discharge Registry. The number of cardiac surgery interventions was compared between both databases. The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation and hospital standardised mortality ratio models were updated in the study population and compared using the C-statistic, calibration plots and the Brier-score. Results The number of cardiac surgery interventions performed could not be assessed using the administrative database as the intervention code was incorrect in 1.4–26.3%, depending on the type of intervention. In 7.3% no intervention code was registered. The updated administrative model was inferior to the updated clinical model with respect to discrimination (c-statistic of 0.77 vs 0.85, p<0.001) and calibration (Brier Score of 2.8% vs 2.6%, p<0.001, maximum score 3.0%). Two average performing hospitals according to the clinical model became outliers when benchmarking was performed using the administrative model. Conclusions In cardiac surgery, administrative data are less suitable than clinical data for the purpose of benchmarking. The use of either administrative or clinical risk-adjustment models can affect the outlier status of hospitals. Risk-adjustment models including procedure-specific clinical risk factors are recommended. PMID:24334377

Muscle mass, BMI, and mortality among adults in the United States: A population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Hall, Charles B.; Amodu, Afolarin; Sharma, Deep; Androga, Lagu; Hawkins, Meredith

2018-01-01

Background The level of body-mass index (BMI) associated with the lowest risk of death remains unclear. Although differences in muscle mass limit the utility of BMI as a measure of adiposity, no study has directly examined the effect of muscle mass on the BMI-mortality relationship. Methods Body composition was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry in 11,687 participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2004. Low muscle mass was defined using sex-specific thresholds of the appendicular skeletal muscle mass index (ASMI). Proportional hazards models were created to model associations with all-cause mortality. Results At any level of BMI ≥22, participants with low muscle mass had higher body fat percentage (%TBF), an increased likelihood of diabetes, and higher adjusted mortality than other participants. Increases in %TBF manifested as 30–40% smaller changes in BMI than were observed in participants with preserved muscle mass. Excluding participants with low muscle mass or adjustment for ASMI attenuated the risk associated with low BMI, magnified the risk associated with high BMI, and shifted downward the level of BMI associated with the lowest risk of death. Higher ASMI was independently associated with lower mortality. Effects were similar in never-smokers and ever-smokers. Additional adjustment for waist circumference eliminated the risk associated with higher BMI. Results were unchanged after excluding unintentional weight loss, chronic illness, early mortality, and participants performing muscle-strengthening exercises or recommended levels of physical activity. Conclusions Muscle mass mediates associations of BMI with adiposity and mortality and is inversely associated with the risk of death. After accounting for muscle mass, the BMI associated with the greatest survival shifts downward toward the normal range. These results provide a concrete explanation for the obesity paradox. PMID:29641540

Metabolic Syndrome and Diabetes, Alone and in Combination, as Predictors of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Among Men

PubMed Central

Church, Timothy S.; Thompson, Angela M.; Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Sui, Xuemei; Johannsen, Neil; Earnest, Conrad P.; Blair, Steven N.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE To examine cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk in men with diabetes only, metabolic syndrome only, and concurrent metabolic syndrome and diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We examined CVD mortality risk by metabolic syndrome and diabetes status in men from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS) (mean ± SD age 45.1 ± 10.2 years). Participants were categorized as having neither diabetes nor metabolic syndrome (n = 23,770), metabolic syndrome only (n = 8,780), diabetes only (n = 532), or both (n = 1,097). The duration of follow-up was 14.6 ± 7.0 years with a total of 483,079 person-years of exposure and 1,085 CVD deaths. RESULTS Age-, examination year–, and smoking-adjusted CVD death rates (per 1,000 man-years) in men with neither metabolic syndrome nor diabetes, metabolic syndrome only, diabetes only, and both were 1.9, 3.3, 5.5, and 6.5, respectively. CVD mortality was higher in men with metabolic syndrome only (hazard ratio 1.8 [95% CI 1.5–2.0]), diabetes only (2.9 [2.1–4.0]), and both (3.4 [2.8–4.2]) compared with men with neither. The presence of metabolic syndrome was not associated (1.2 [0.8–1.7]) with higher CVD mortality risk in individuals with diabetes. In contrast, the presence of diabetes substantially increased (2.1 [1.7–2.6]) CVD mortality risk in individuals with metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS The presence of diabetes was associated with a threefold higher CVD mortality risk, and metabolic syndrome status did not modify this risk. Our findings support the fact that physicians should be aggressive in using CVD risk–reducing therapies in all diabetic patients regardless of metabolic syndrome status. PMID:19366967

Nonlinear association of BMI with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 414,587 participants in prospective studies.

PubMed

Zaccardi, Francesco; Dhalwani, Nafeesa N; Papamargaritis, Dimitris; Webb, David R; Murphy, Gavin J; Davies, Melanie J; Khunti, Kamlesh

2017-02-01

The relationship between BMI and mortality has been extensively investigated in the general population; however, it is less clear in people with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to assess the association of BMI with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. We searched electronic databases up to 1 March 2016 for prospective studies reporting associations for three or more BMI groups with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Study-specific associations between BMI and the most-adjusted RR were estimated using restricted cubic splines and a generalised least squares method before pooling study estimates with a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. We included 21 studies including 24 cohorts, 414,587 participants, 61,889 all-cause and 4470 cardiovascular incident deaths; follow-up ranged from 2.7 to 15.9 years. There was a strong nonlinear relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality in both men and women, with the lowest estimated risk from 31-35 kg/m 2 and 28-31 kg/m 2 (p value for nonlinearity <0.001) respectively. The risk of mortality at higher BMI values increased significantly only in women, whilst lower values were associated with higher mortality in both sexes. Limited data for cardiovascular mortality were available, with a possible inverse linear association with BMI (higher risk for BMI <27 kg/m 2 ). In type 2 diabetes, BMI is nonlinearly associated with all-cause mortality with lowest risk in the overweight group in both men and women. Further research is needed to clarify the relationship with cardiovascular mortality and assess causality and sex differences.

Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor in TBI-related mortality: Interrelationships between Genetics and Acute Systemic and CNS BDNF Profiles

PubMed Central

Failla, Michelle D.; Conley, Yvette P.; Wagner, Amy K.

2015-01-01

Background Older adults have higher mortality rates after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) compared to younger adults. Brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling is altered in aging and is important to TBI given its role in neuronal survival/plasticity and autonomic function. Following experimental TBI, acute BDNF administration has not been efficacious. Clinically, genetic variation in BDNF (reduced signaling alleles: rs6265, Met-carriers; rs7124442, C-carriers) were protective in acute mortality. Post-acutely, these genotypes carried lower mortality risk in older adults, and greater mortality risk among younger adults. Objective Investigate BDNF levels in mortality/outcome following severe TBI in the context of age and genetic risk. Methods CSF and serum BDNF were assessed prospectively during the first week following severe TBI (n=203), and in controls (n=10). Age, BDNF genotype, and BDNF levels were assessed as mortality/outcome predictors. Results CSF BDNF levels tended to be higher post-TBI (p=0.061) versus controls and were associated with time until death (p=0.042). In contrast, serum BDNF levels were reduced post-TBI versus controls (p<0.0001). Both gene*BDNF serum and gene*age interactions were mortality predictors post-TBI in the same multivariate model. CSF and serum BDNF tended to be negatively correlated post-TBI (p=0.07). Conclusions BDNF levels predicted mortality, in addition to gene*age interactions, suggesting levels capture additional mortality risk. Higher CSF BDNF post-TBI may be detrimental due to injury and age-related increases in pro-apoptotic BDNF target receptors. Negative CSF and serum BDNF correlations post-TBI suggest blood-brain barrier transit alterations. Understanding BDNF signaling in neuronal survival, plasticity, and autonomic function may inform treatment. PMID:25979196

Prevention of Chronic Kidney Disease and Subsequent Effect on Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Khan, Usman A.; Garg, Amit X.; Parikh, Chirag R.; Coca, Steven G.

2013-01-01

Objectives To perform a systematic review of randomized controlled trials to determine whether prevention or slowing of progression of chronic kidney disease would translate into improved mortality, and if so, the attributable risk due to CKD itself on mortality. Background CKD is associated with increased mortality. This association is largely based on evidence from the observational studies and evidence from randomized controlled trials is lacking. Methods We searched Ovid, Medline and Embase for RCTs in which an intervention was given to prevent or slow the progression of CKD and mortality was reported as primary, secondary or adverse outcomes were eligible and selected. For the first phase, pooled relative risks for renal endpoints were assessed. For the second phase, we assessed the effect on mortality in trials of interventions that definitively reduced CKD endpoints. Results Among 52 studies selected in first phase, only renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system blockade vs. placebo (n = 18 trials, 32,557 participants) met the efficacy criteria for further analysis in the second phase by reducing renal endpoints 15 to 27% compared to placebo. There was no difference in all-cause mortality (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.08) or CV death (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.21) between the treatment and control groups in these trials. There was sufficient statistical power to detect a 9% relative risk reduction in all-cause mortality and a 14% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Firm evidence is lacking that prevention of CKD translates into reductions in mortality. Larger trials with longer follow-up time are needed to determine the benefit of CKD prevention on survival. PMID:24009665

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to medical interventions: do they reflect inequalities in access or quality of health care?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Previous studies have reported large socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention, but it is unclear whether these can be attributed to inequalities in access or quality of health care, or to confounding influences such as inequalities in background risk of diseases. We therefore studied whether inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to medical intervention vary between countries in patterns which differ from those observed for other (non-amenable) causes of death. More specifically, we hypothesized that, as compared to non-amenable causes, inequalities in mortality from amenable causes are more strongly associated with inequalities in health care use and less strongly with inequalities in common risk factors for disease such as smoking. Methods Cause-specific mortality data for people aged 30–74 years were obtained for 14 countries, and were analysed by calculating age-standardized mortality rates and relative risks comparing a lower with a higher educational group. Survey data on health care use and behavioural risk factors for people aged 30–74 years were obtained for 12 countries, and were analysed by calculating age-and sex-adjusted odds ratios comparing a low with a higher educational group. Patterns of association were explored by calculating correlation coefficients. Results In most countries and for most amenable causes of death substantial inequalities in mortality were observed, but inequalities in mortality from amenable causes did not vary between countries in patterns that are different from those seen for inequalities in non-amenable mortality. As compared to non-amenable causes, inequalities in mortality from amenable causes are not more strongly associated with inequalities in health care use. Inequalities in mortality from amenable causes are also not less strongly associated with common risk factors such as smoking. Conclusions We did not find evidence that inequalities in mortality from amenable conditions are related to inequalities in access or quality of health care. Further research is needed to find the causes of socio-economic inequalities in mortality from amenable conditions, and caution should be exercised in interpreting these inequalities as indicating health care deficiencies. PMID:22578154

Symptoms of depression and all-cause mortality in farmers, a cohort study: the HUNT study, Norway

PubMed Central

Letnes, Jon Magne; Hilt, Bjørn; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Krokstad, Steinar

2016-01-01

Objectives To explore all-cause mortality and the association between symptoms of depression and all-cause mortality in farmers compared with other occupational groups, using a prospective cohort design. Methods We included adult participants with a known occupation from the second wave of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (Helseundersøkelsen i Nord-Trøndelag 2 (HUNT2) 1995–1997), Norway. Complete information on emigration and death from all causes was obtained from the National Registries. We used the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to measure symptoms of depression. We compared farmers to 4 other occupational groups. Our baseline study population comprised 32 618 participants. Statistical analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards models. Results The estimated mortality risk in farmers was lower than in all other occupations combined, with a sex and age-adjusted HR (0.91, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.00). However, farmers had an 11% increased age-adjusted and sex-adjusted mortality risk compared with the highest ranked socioeconomic group (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.25). In farmers, symptoms of depression were associated with a 13% increase in sex-adjusted and age-adjusted mortality risk (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.45). Compared with other occupations this was the lowest HR, also after adjusting for education, marital status, long-lasting limiting somatic illness and lifestyle factors (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.39). Conclusions Farmers had lower all-cause mortality compared with the other occupational groups combined. Symptoms of depression were associated with an increased mortality risk in farmers, but the risk increase was smaller compared with the other occupational groups. PMID:27188811

Marital status, labour force activity and mortality: A study of the United States and 6 European countries

PubMed Central

van Hedel, Karen; van Lenthe, Frank J; Avendano, Mauricio; Bopp, Matthias; Esnaola, Santiago; Kovács, Katalin; Martikainen, Pekka; Regidor, Enrique; Mackenbach, Johan P

2015-01-01

Aims Labour force activity and marriage share some of the pathways through which they potentially influence health. In this paper, we examine whether marriage and labour force participation interact in the way they influence mortality in the United States and six European countries. Methods We used data from the US National Health Interview Survey linked to the National Death Index, and national mortality registry data for Austria, England/Wales, Finland, Hungary, Norway and Spain (Basque country) during 1999-2007 for men and women aged 30-59 at baseline. Poisson regression was used to estimate both additive (the relative excess risk due to interaction) and multiplicative interactions between marriage and labour force activity on mortality. Results Labour force inactivity was associated with higher mortality, but this association was stronger for unmarried than married individuals. Likewise, being unmarried was associated with higher mortality, but this association was stronger for inactive than for active individuals. To illustrate, among US women out of the labour force, being unmarried was associated with a 3.98 (95%CI:3.28-4.82) times higher risk of dying than being married, whereas the relative risk was 2.49 (95%CI:2.10-2.94) for women active in the labour market. Although this interaction between marriage and labour force activity was only significant for women on a multiplicative scale, there was a significant additive interaction for both men and women. The pattern was similar across all countries. Conclusions Marriage attenuates the increased mortality risk associated with labour force inactivity, while labour force activity attenuates the mortality risk associated with being unmarried. Our study emphasizes the importance of public health and social policies that improve the health and well-being of men and women who are both unmarried and inactive. PMID:25868643

Red Meat Consumption and Mortality: Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Pan, An; Sun, Qi; Bernstein, Adam M.; Schulze, Matthias B.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Stampfer, Meir J.; Willett, Walter C.; Hu, Frank B.

2013-01-01

Background Red meat consumption has been associated with an increased risk of chronic diseases. However, its relationship with mortality remains uncertain. Methods We prospectively followed 37698 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2008) and 83644 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1980-2008), who were free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer at baseline. Diet was assessed by validated food-frequency questionnaires and updated every four years. Results We documented 23926 deaths (including 5910 CVD and 9464 cancer deaths) during 2.96 million person-years of follow-up. After multivariate adjustment for major lifestyle and dietary risk factors, the pooled hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval of total mortality was 1.13 (1.07-1.20) for 1-serving per day increase of unprocessed red meat, 1.20 (1.15-1.24) for processed red meat. The corresponding HRs were 1.18 (1.13-1.23) and 1.21 (1.13-1.31) for CVD mortality, 1.10 (1.06-1.14) and 1.16 (1.09-1.23) for cancer mortality. We estimated that substitutions of 1-serving per day of other foods (including fish, poultry, nuts, legumes, low-fat dairy, and whole grains) for 1-serving per day of red meat were associated with a 7%-19% lower mortality risk. We also estimated that 9.3% of deaths in men and 7.6% in women in our cohorts could be prevented at the end of follow-up if all individuals consumed <0.5 serving/d (≈42 g/d) of red meat. Conclusions Red meat consumption is associated with an increased risk of total, CVD and cancer mortality. Substitution of other healthy protein sources for red meat is associated with a lower mortality risk. PMID:22412075

Cause-Specific Mortality Due to Malignant and Non-Malignant Disease in Korean Foundry Workers

PubMed Central

Yoon, Jin-Ha; Ahn, Yeon-Soon

2014-01-01

Background Foundry work is associated with serious occupational hazards. Although several studies have investigated the health risks associated with foundry work, the results of these studies have been inconsistent with the exception of an increased lung cancer risk. The current study evaluated the mortality of Korean foundry workers due to malignant and non-malignant diseases. Methods This study is part of an ongoing investigation of Korean foundry workers. To date, we have observed more than 150,000 person-years in male foundry production workers. In the current study, we stratified mortality ratios by the following job categories: melting-pouring, molding-coremaking, fettling, and uncategorized production work. We calculated standard mortality ratios (SMR) of foundry workers compare to general Korean men and relative risk (RR) of mortality of foundry production workers reference to non-production worker, respectively. Results Korean foundry production workers had a significantly higher risk of mortality due to malignant disease, including stomach (RR: 3.96; 95% CI: 1.41–11.06) and lung cancer (RR: 2.08; 95% CI: 1.01–4.30), compared with non-production workers. High mortality ratios were also observed for non-malignant diseases, including diseases of the circulatory (RR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.18–3.14), respiratory (RR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.52–21.42 for uncategorized production worker), and digestive (RR: 2.27; 95% CI: 1.22–4.24) systems, as well as for injuries (RR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.52–3.66) including suicide (RR: 3.64; 95% CI: 1.32–10.01). Conclusion This study suggests that foundry production work significantly increases the risk of mortality due to some kinds of malignant and non-malignant diseases compared with non-production work. PMID:24505454

Are Sitting Occupations Associated with Increased All-Cause, Cancer, and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Risk? A Pooled Analysis of Seven British Population Cohorts

PubMed Central

Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Chau, Josephine Y.; Pedisic, Zeljko; Bauman, Adrian; Macniven, Rona; Coombs, Ngaire; Hamer, Mark

2013-01-01

Background There is mounting evidence for associations between sedentary behaviours and adverse health outcomes, although the data on occupational sitting and mortality risk remain equivocal. The aim of this study was to determine the association between occupational sitting and cardiovascular, cancer and all-cause mortality in a pooled sample of seven British general population cohorts. Methods The sample comprised 5380 women and 5788 men in employment who were drawn from five Health Survey for England and two Scottish Health Survey cohorts. Participants were classified as reporting standing, walking or sitting in their work time and followed up over 12.9 years for mortality. Data were modelled using Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for age, waist circumference, self-reported general health, frequency of alcohol intake, cigarette smoking, non-occupational physical activity, prevalent cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline, psychological health, social class, and education. Results In total there were 754 all-cause deaths. In women, a standing/walking occupation was associated with lower risk of all-cause (fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.68, 95% CI 0.52–0.89) and cancer (HR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.43–0.85) mortality, compared to sitting occupations. There were no associations in men. In analyses with combined occupational type and leisure-time physical activity, the risk of all-cause mortality was lowest in participants with non-sitting occupations and high leisure-time activity. Conclusions Sitting occupations are linked to increased risk for all-cause and cancer mortality in women only, but no such associations exist for cardiovascular mortality in men or women. PMID:24086292

Plasma levels of cytokines and chemokines and the risk of mortality in HIV-infected individuals: a case-control analysis nested in a large clinical trial

PubMed Central

French, MA; Cozzi-Lepri, A; Arduino, RC; Johnson, M; Achhra, AC; Landay, A

2015-01-01

Background All-cause mortality and serious non-AIDS events (SNAEs) in individuals with HIV-1 infection receiving antiretroviral therapy are associated with increased production of interleukin (IL)-6, which appears to be driven by monocyte/macrophage activation. Plasma levels of other cytokines or chemokines associated with immune activation might also be biomarkers of an increased risk of mortality and/or SNAEs. Methods Baseline plasma samples from 142 participants enrolled into the SMART study who subsequently died, and 284 matched controls, were assayedfor levels of 15 cytokines and chemokines. Cytokine and chemokine levels were analysed individually and when grouped according to function (innate/pro-inflammatory response, cell trafficking and cell activation/proliferation) for their association with the risk of subsequent death. Results Higher plasma levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6 and tumour necrosis factor-alpha) were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality but in analyses adjusted for potential confounders, only the association with IL-6 persisted. Increased plasma levels of the chemokine CXCL8 were also associated with all-cause mortality independently of HCV status but not when analyses were adjusted for all confounders. In contrast, higher plasma levels of cytokines mediating cell activation/proliferation were not associated with a higher mortality risk and exhibited a weak protective effect when analysed as a group. Conclusions While plasma levels of IL-6 are the most informative biomarker of cytokine dysregulation associated with all-cause mortality in individuals with HIV-1 infection, assessment of plasma levels of CXCL8 might provide information about causes of mortality and possibly SNAEs. PMID:25695873

Mortality risk and associated factors in HIV-exposed, uninfected children.

PubMed

Arikawa, Shino; Rollins, Nigel; Newell, Marie-Louise; Becquet, Renaud

2016-06-01

With increasing maternal antiretroviral treatment (ART), the number of children newly infected with HIV has declined. However, the possible increased mortality in the large number of HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) children may be of concern. We quantified mortality risks among HEU children and reviewed associated factors. Systematic search of electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus). We included all studies reporting mortality of HEU children to age 60 months and associated factors. Relative risk of mortality between HEU and HIV-unexposed, uninfected (HUU) children was extracted where relevant. Inverse variance methods were used to adjust for study size. Random-effects models were fitted to obtain pooled estimates. A total of 14 studies were included in the meta-analysis and 13 in the review of associated factors. The pooled cumulative mortality in HEU children was 5.5% (95% CI: 4.0-7.2; I(2) = 94%) at 12 months (11 studies) and 11.0% (95% CI: 7.6-15.0; I(2) = 93%) at 24 months (four studies). The pooled risk ratios for the mortality in HEU children compared to HUU children in the same setting were 1.9 (95% CI: 0.9-3.8; I(2) = 93%) at 12 months (four studies) and 2.4 (95% CI: 1.1-5.1; I(2) = 93%) at 24 months (three studies). Compared to HUU children, mortality risk in HEU children was about double at both age points, although the association was not statistically significant at 12 months. Interpretation of the pooled estimates is confounded by considerable heterogeneity between studies. Further research is needed to characterise the impact of maternal death and breastfeeding on the survival of HEU infants in the context of maternal ART, where current evidence is limited. © 2016 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Validation of prediction models: examining temporal and geographic stability of baseline risk and estimated covariate effects

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.; van Klaveren, David; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Nieboer, Daan; Lee, Douglas S.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2018-01-01

Background Stability in baseline risk and estimated predictor effects both geographically and temporally is a desirable property of clinical prediction models. However, this issue has received little attention in the methodological literature. Our objective was to examine methods for assessing temporal and geographic heterogeneity in baseline risk and predictor effects in prediction models. Methods We studied 14,857 patients hospitalized with heart failure at 90 hospitals in Ontario, Canada, in two time periods. We focussed on geographic and temporal variation in baseline risk (intercept) and predictor effects (regression coefficients) of the EFFECT-HF mortality model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients hospitalized for heart failure. We used random effects logistic regression models for the 14,857 patients. Results The baseline risk of mortality displayed moderate geographic variation, with the hospital-specific probability of 1-year mortality for a reference patient lying between 0.168 and 0.290 for 95% of hospitals. Furthermore, the odds of death were 11% lower in the second period than in the first period. However, we found minimal geographic or temporal variation in predictor effects. Among 11 tests of differences in time for predictor variables, only one had a modestly significant P value (0.03). Conclusions This study illustrates how temporal and geographic heterogeneity of prediction models can be assessed in settings with a large sample of patients from a large number of centers at different time periods. PMID:29350215

Both low and high temperature may increase the risk of stroke mortality

PubMed Central

Chen, Renjie; Wang, Cuicui; Meng, Xia; Chen, Honglei; Thach, Thuan Quoc; Wong, Chit-Ming

2013-01-01

Objective: To examine temperature in relation to stroke mortality in a multicity time series study in China. Methods: We obtained data on daily temperature and mortality from 8 large cities in China. We used quasi-Poisson generalized additive models and distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the accumulative effects of temperature on stroke mortality across multiple days, adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, day of the week, air pollution, and relative humidity. We applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to pool city-specific effect estimates. Results: Both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality. The potential effect of cold temperature might last more than 2 weeks. The pooled relative risks of extreme cold (first percentile of temperature) and cold (10th percentile of temperature) temperatures over lags 0–14 days were 1.39 (95% posterior intervals [PI] 1.18–1.64) and 1.11 (95% PI 1.06–1.17), compared with the 25th percentile of temperature. In contrast, the effect of hot temperature was more immediate. The relative risks of stroke mortality over lags 0–3 days were 1.06 (95% PI 1.02–1.10) for extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature) and 1.14 (95% PI 1.05–1.24) for hot temperature (90th percentile of temperature), compared with the 75th percentile of temperature. Conclusions: This study showed that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in China. Our findings may have important implications for stroke prevention in China. PMID:23946311

Role of calcium supplementation during pregnancy in reducing risk of developing gestational hypertensive disorders: a meta-analysis of studies from developing countries

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Hypertension in pregnancy stand alone or with proteinuria is one of the leading causes of maternal mortality and morbidity in the world. Epidemiological and clinical studies have shown that an inverse relationship exists between calcium intake and development of hypertension in pregnancy though the effect varies based on baseline calcium intake and pre-existing risk factors. The purpose of this review was to evaluate preventive effect of calcium supplementation during pregnancy on gestational hypertensive disorders and related maternal and neonatal mortality in developing countries. Methods A literature search was carried out on PubMed, Cochrane Library and WHO regional databases. Data were extracted into a standardized excel sheet. Identified studies were graded based on strengths and limitations of studies. All the included studies were from developing countries. Meta-analyses were generated where data were available from more than one study for an outcome. Primary outcomes were maternal mortality, eclampsia, pre-eclampsia, and severe preeclampsia. Neonatal outcomes like neonatal mortality, preterm birth, small for gestational age and low birth weight were also evaluated. We followed standardized guidelines of Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) to generate estimates of effectiveness of calcium supplementation during pregnancy in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality in developing countries, for inclusion in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Results Data from 10 randomized controlled trials were included in this review. Pooled analysis showed that calcium supplementation during pregnancy was associated with a significant reduction of 45% in risk of gestational hypertension [Relative risk (RR) 0.55; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.85] and 59% in the risk of pre-eclampsia [RR 0.41; 95 % CI 0.24-0.69] in developing countries. Calcium supplementation during pregnancy was also associated with a significant reduction in neonatal mortality [RR 0.70; 95 % CI 0.56-0.88] and risk of pre-term birth [RR 0.88, 95 % CI 0.78-0.99]. Recommendations for LiST for reduction in maternal mortality were based on risk reduction in gestational hypertensive related severe morbidity/mortality [RR 0.80; 95% CI 0.70-0.91] and that for neonatal mortality were based on risk reduction in all-cause neonatal mortality [RR 0.70; 95% CI 0.56-0.88]. Conclusion Calcium supplementation during pregnancy is associated with a reduction in risk of gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia neonatal mortality and pre-term birth in developing countries. PMID:21501435

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang

Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributablemore » to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.« less

External validation of Vascular Study Group of New England risk predictive model of mortality after elective abdominal aorta aneurysm repair in the Vascular Quality Initiative and comparison against established models.

PubMed

Eslami, Mohammad H; Rybin, Denis V; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Farber, Alik

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to externally validate a recently reported Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) risk predictive model of postoperative mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to compare its predictive ability across different patients' risk categories and against the established risk predictive models using the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) AAA sample. The VQI AAA database (2010-2015) was queried for patients who underwent elective AAA repair. The VSGNE cases were excluded from the VQI sample. The external validation of a recently published VSGNE AAA risk predictive model, which includes only preoperative variables (age, gender, history of coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, creatinine levels, and aneurysm size) and planned type of repair, was performed using the VQI elective AAA repair sample. The predictive value of the model was assessed via the C-statistic. Hosmer-Lemeshow method was used to assess calibration and goodness of fit. This model was then compared with the Medicare, Vascular Governance Northwest model, and Glasgow Aneurysm Score for predicting mortality in VQI sample. The Vuong test was performed to compare the model fit between the models. Model discrimination was assessed in different risk group VQI quintiles. Data from 4431 cases from the VSGNE sample with the overall mortality rate of 1.4% was used to develop the model. The internally validated VSGNE model showed a very high discriminating ability in predicting mortality (C = 0.822) and good model fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .309) among the VSGNE elective AAA repair sample. External validation on 16,989 VQI cases with an overall 0.9% mortality rate showed very robust predictive ability of mortality (C = 0.802). Vuong tests yielded a significant fit difference favoring the VSGNE over then Medicare model (C = 0.780), Vascular Governance Northwest (0.774), and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (0.639). Across the 5 risk quintiles, the VSGNE model predicted observed mortality significantly with great accuracy. This simple VSGNE AAA risk predictive model showed very high discriminative ability in predicting mortality after elective AAA repair among a large external independent sample of AAA cases performed by a diverse array of physicians nationwide. The risk score based on this simple VSGNE model can reliably stratify patients according to their risk of mortality after elective AAA repair better than other established models. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Personality and the Leading Behavioral Contributors of Mortality

PubMed Central

Turiano, Nicholas A.; Chapman, Benjamin P.; Gruenewald, Tara L.; Mroczek, Daniel K.

2014-01-01

Objective Personality traits predict both health behaviors and mortality risk across the life course. However, there are few investigations that have examined these effects in a single study. Thus, there are limitations in assessing if health behaviors explain why personality predicts health and longevity. Method Utilizing 14-year mortality data from a national sample of over 6,000 adults from the Midlife in the United States Study, we tested whether alcohol use, smoking behavior, and waist circumference mediated the personality–mortality association. Results After adjusting for demographic variables, higher levels of Conscientiousness predicted a 13% reduction in mortality risk over the follow-up. Structural equation models provided evidence that heavy drinking, smoking, and greater waist circumference significantly mediated the Conscientiousness–mortality association by 42%. Conclusion The current study provided empirical support for the health-behavior model of personality— Conscientiousness influences the behaviors persons engage in and these behaviors affect the likelihood of poor health outcomes. Findings highlight the usefulness of assessing mediation in a structural equation modeling framework when testing proportional hazards. In addition, the current findings add to the growing literature that personality traits can be used to identify those at risk for engaging in behaviors that deteriorate health and shorten the life span. PMID:24364374

Suicide Mortality Among Agricultural Workers in a Region With Intensive Tobacco Farming and Use of Pesticides in Brazil

PubMed Central

Krawczyk, Noa; Meyer, Armando; Fonseca, Maira; Lima, Jaime

2016-01-01

Objective To investigate whether suicide risk among agricultural workers is higher in regions with heavier pesticide use and/or presence of tobacco farming. Methods Suicide mortality data were gathered from residents of the Brazilian state of Alagoas. Agricultural census data were used to arrange and classify Alagoas cities into distribution groups on the basis of variables concerning pesticide use and/or tobacco farming. Mortality odds ratio calculations were then used to compare suicide risk among agricultural and nonagricultural workers in different groups. Results Suicide risk was higher among agricultural workers than among nonagricultural workers, elevated in regions that used more pesticides, and greatest in regions that produced more tobacco. Conclusions This is one of the first studies of its kind to suggest that combined effects of pesticide and tobacco exposure may be linked to higher suicide risk among agricultural workers. PMID:25046321

Biomarkers of aging in Drosophila.

PubMed

Jacobson, Jake; Lambert, Adrian J; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D; Partridge, Linda

2010-08-01

Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. Dietary restriction thus does not slow accumulation of aging-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of aging-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of aging-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of aging-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence, fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of aging-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidized and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of aging-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of aging.

Biomarkers of ageing in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Jacobson, Jake; Portero-Otín, Manuel; Pamplona, Reinald; Magwere, Tapiwanashe; Miwa, Satomi; Driege, Yasmine; Brand, Martin D.; Partridge, Linda

2015-01-01

Summary Low environmental temperature and dietary restriction (DR) extend lifespan in diverse organisms. In the fruit fly Drosophila, switching flies between temperatures alters the rate at which mortality subsequently increases with age but does not reverse mortality rate. In contrast, DR acts acutely to lower mortality risk; flies switched between control feeding and DR show a rapid reversal of mortality rate. DR thus does not slow accumulation of ageing-related damage. Molecular species that track the effects of temperatures on mortality but are unaltered with switches in diet are therefore potential biomarkers of ageing-related damage. However, molecular species that switch upon instigation or withdrawal of DR are thus potential biomarkers of mechanisms underlying risk of mortality, but not of ageing-related damage. Using this approach, we assessed several commonly used biomarkers of ageing-related damage. Accumulation of fluorescent advanced glycation end products (AGEs) correlated strongly with mortality rate of flies at different temperatures but was independent of diet. Hence fluorescent AGEs are biomarkers of ageing-related damage in flies. In contrast, five oxidised and glycated protein adducts accumulated with age, but were reversible with both temperature and diet, and are therefore not markers either of acute risk of dying or of ageing-related damage. Our approach provides a powerful method for identification of biomarkers of ageing. PMID:20367621

Life course socioeconomic conditions, adulthood risk factors and cardiovascular mortality among men and women: a 17-year follow up of the GLOBE study.

PubMed

Kamphuis, Carlijn B M; Turrell, Gavin; Giskes, Katrina; Mackenbach, Johan P; van Lenthe, Frank J

2013-10-03

Our goal was to study associations between childhood socioeconomic position (SEP), adulthood SEP, adulthood risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, by investigating the critical period and pathway models. The prospective GLOBE study in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, was linked with cause of death register data from Statistics Netherlands in 2007. At baseline, respondents reported information on childhood SEP (i.e. occupational level of respondent's father), adulthood SEP (educational level), and adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, and psychosocial factors). Analyses included 4894 men and 5572 women. Data were analysed by Cox proportional hazard ratios (HR) with CVD mortality as the outcome. Childhood SEP was associated with CVD mortality among men with the lowest childhood SEP only (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.74), and not among women. The majority of childhood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality among men (88%) were explained by material, behavioural and psychosocial risk factors in adulthood, and adulthood SEP. This was mostly due to the association of childhood SEP with adulthood SEP, and the interrelations of adulthood SEP with risk factors, and partly via the direct association of childhood SEP with adulthood risk factors, independent of adulthood SEP. This study supports the pathway model for men, but found no evidence that socioeconomic conditions in childhood are critical for CVD mortality in later life independent of adulthood conditions. Developing effective methods to reduce material and behavioural risk factors among lower socioeconomic groups should be a top priority in cardiovascular disease prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-alcoholic beverage and caffeine consumption and mortality: the Leisure World Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Paganini-Hill, Annlia; Kawas, Claudia H; Corrada, María M

2007-01-01

Objective To examine the effects of non-alcoholic beverage and caffeine consumption on all-cause mortality in older adults. Methods The Leisure World Cohort Study is a prospective study of residents of a California retirement community. A baseline postal health survey included details on coffee, tea, milk, soft drink, and chocolate consumption. Participants were followed for 23 years (1981–2004). Risk ratios (RRs) of death were calculated using Cox regression for 8644 women and 4980 men (median age at entry, 74 years) and adjusted for age, gender and multiple potential confounders. Results Caffeine consumption exhibited a U-shaped mortality curve. Moderate caffeine consumers had a significantly reduced risk of death (multivariable-adjusted RR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.90, 0.99 for 100–199 mg/day and RR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.85, 0.94 for 200–399 mg/day compared with those consuming <50 mg/day). Individuals who drank more than 1 can/week of artificially sweetened (but not sugar-sweetened) soft drink (cola and other) had a 8% increased risk (95% CI: 1.01–1.16). Neither milk nor tea had a significant effect on mortality after multivariable adjustment. Conclusions Moderate caffeine consumption appeared beneficial in risking risk of death. Attenuation in the observed associations between mortality and intake of tea and milk with adjustment for potential confounders suggests that such consumption identifies those with other mortality-associated lifestyle and health risks. The increased death risk with consumption of artificially sweetened, but not sugar-sweetened, soft drinks suggests an effect of the sweetener rather than other components of the soft drinks, although residual confounding remains a possibility. PMID:17275898

Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) risk adjuster with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality.

PubMed

Li, Pengxiang; Kim, Michelle M; Doshi, Jalpa A

2010-08-20

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW) 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM), and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS-HCC model is preferred over the Charlson and Elixhauser methods if information about the patient's diagnoses prior to the index hospitalization is available and used to code the risk adjusters. However, caution should be exercised in studies evaluating inpatient processes of care and where data on pre-index admission diagnoses are unavailable.

Municipal mortality due to thyroid cancer in Spain

PubMed Central

Lope, Virginia; Pollán, Marina; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Aragonés, Nuria; Ramis, Rebeca; Gómez-Barroso, Diana; López-Abente, Gonzalo

2006-01-01

Background Thyroid cancer is a tumor with a low but growing incidence in Spain. This study sought to depict its spatial municipal mortality pattern, using the classic model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. Methods It was possible to compile and ascertain the posterior distribution of relative risk on the basis of a single Bayesian spatial model covering all of Spain's 8077 municipal areas. Maps were plotted depicting standardized mortality ratios, smoothed relative risk (RR) estimates, and the posterior probability that RR > 1. Results From 1989 to 1998 a total of 2,538 thyroid cancer deaths were registered in 1,041 municipalities. The highest relative risks were mostly situated in the Canary Islands, the province of Lugo, the east of La Coruña (Corunna) and western areas of Asturias and Orense. Conclusion The observed mortality pattern coincides with areas in Spain where goiter has been declared endemic. The higher frequency in these same areas of undifferentiated, more aggressive carcinomas could be reflected in the mortality figures. Other unknown genetic or environmental factors could also play a role in the etiology of this tumor. PMID:17173668

Global Inequalities in Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality are Linked to Deprivation, Low Socioeconomic Status, and Human Development

PubMed Central

Singh, Gopal K.; Azuine, Romuladus E.; Siahpush, Mohammad

2012-01-01

Objectives This study examined global inequalities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates as a function of cross-national variations in the Human Development Index (HDI), socioeconomic factors, Gender Inequality Index (GII), and healthcare expenditure. Methods Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were calculated for women in 184 countries using the 2008 GLOBOCAN database, and incidence and mortality trends were analyzed using the WHO cancer mortality database. Log-linear regression was used to model annual trends, while OLS and Poisson regression models were used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic and human development factors on incidence and mortality rates. Results Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates varied widely, with many African countries such as Guinea, Zambia, Comoros, Tanzania, and Malawi having at least 10-to-20-fold higher rates than several West Asian, Middle East, and European countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Switzerland. HDI, GII, poverty rate, health expenditure per capita, urbanization, and literacy rate were all significantly related to cervical cancer incidence and mortality, with HDI and poverty rate each explaining >52% of the global variance in mortality. Both incidence and mortality rates increased in relation to lower human development and higher gender inequality levels. A 0.2 unit increase in HDI was associated with a 20% decrease in cervical cancer risk and a 33% decrease in cervical cancer mortality risk. The risk of a cervical cancer diagnosis increased by 24% and of cervical cancer death by 42% for a 0.2 unit increase in GII. Higher health expenditure levels were independently associated with decreased incidence and mortality risks. Conclusions and Public Health Implications Global inequalities in cervical cancer are clearly linked to disparities in human development, social inequality, and living standards. Reductions in cervical cancer rates are achievable by reducing inequalities in socioeconomic conditions, availability of preventive health services, and women’s social status. PMID:27621956

Subclinical Hyperthyroidism and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease and Mortality

PubMed Central

Collet, Tinh-Hai; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Bauer, Douglas C.; den Elzen, Wendy P. J.; Cappola, Anne R.; Balmer, Philippe; Iervasi, Giorgio; Åsvold, Bjørn O.; Sgarbi, José A.; Völzke, Henry; Gencer, Bariş; Maciel, Rui M. B.; Molinaro, Sabrina; Bremner, Alexandra; Luben, Robert N.; Maisonneuve, Patrick; Cornuz, Jacques; Newman, Anne B.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Westendorp, Rudi G. J.; Franklyn, Jayne A.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Walsh, John P.; Rodondi, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Background Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting. We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts. Methods Individual data on 52 674 participants were pooled from 10 cohorts. Coronary heart disease events were analyzed in 22 437 participants from 6 cohorts with available data, and incident AF was analyzed in 8711 participants from 5 cohorts. Euthyroidism was defined as thyrotropin level between 0.45 and 4.49 mIU/L and endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism as thyrotropin level lower than 0.45 mIU/L with normal free thyroxine levels, after excluding those receiving thyroid-altering medications. Results Of 52 674 participants, 2188 (4.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During follow-up, 8527 participants died (including 1896 from CHD), 3653 of 22 437 had CHD events, and 785 of 8711 developed AF. In age-and sex-adjusted analyses, subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.24, 95% CI, 1.06–1.46), CHD mortality (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.02–1.62), CHD events (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.99–1.46), and AF (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.16–2.43). Risks did not differ significantly by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease and were similar after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with attributable risk of 14.5% for total mortality to 41.5% for AF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Risks for CHD mortality and AF (but not other outcomes) were higher for thyrotropin level lower than 0.10 mIU/L compared with thyrotropin level between 0.10 and 0.44 mIU/L (for both, P value for trend, ≤.03). Conclusion Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with increased risks of total, CHD mortality, and incident AF, with highest risks of CHD mortality and AF when thyrotropin level is lower than 0.10 mIU/L. PMID:22529182

Associations of Objectively Assessed Physical Activity and Sedentary Time with All-Cause Mortality in US Adults: The NHANES Study

PubMed Central

Schmid, Daniela; Ricci, Cristian; Leitzmann, Michael F.

2015-01-01

Background Sedentary behavior is related to increased mortality risk. Whether such elevated risk can be offset by enhanced physical activity has not been examined using accelerometry data. Materials and Methods We examined the relations of sedentary time and physical activity to mortality from any cause using accelerometry data among 1,677 women and men aged 50 years or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2004 cycle with follow-up through December 31, 2006. Results During an average follow-up of 34.67 months and 4,845.42 person-years, 112 deaths occurred. In multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, greater sedentary time (≥ median of 8.60 hours/day) was associated with increased risk of mortality from any cause (relative risk (RR) = 2.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09-3.81). Low level of moderate to vigorous physical activity (< median of 6.60 minutes/day) was also related to enhanced all-cause mortality risk (RR = 3.30; 95% CI = 1.33-8.17). In combined analyses, greater time spent sedentary and low levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity predicted a substantially elevated all-cause mortality risk. As compared with the combination of a low sedentary level and a high level of moderate to vigorous physical activity, the risks of mortality from all causes were 4.38 (95% CI = 1.26-15.16) for low levels of both sedentary time and physical activity, 2.79 (95% CI = 0.77-10.12) for greater time spent sedentary and high physical activity level, and 7.79 (95% CI = 2.26-26.82) for greater time spent sedentary and low physical activity level. The interaction term between sedentary time and moderate to vigorous physical activity was not statistically significant (p = 0.508). Conclusions Both high levels of sedentary time and low levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity are strong and independent predictors of early death from any cause. Whether a high physical activity level removes the increased risk of all-cause mortality related to sedentariness requires further investigation. PMID:25768112

A review of methods to estimate cause-specific mortality in presence of competing risks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heisey, Dennis M.; Patterson, Brent R.

2006-01-01

Estimating cause-specific mortality is often of central importance for understanding the dynamics of wildlife populations. Despite such importance, methodology for estimating and analyzing cause-specific mortality has received little attention in wildlife ecology during the past 20 years. The issue of analyzing cause-specific, mutually exclusive events in time is not unique to wildlife. In fact, this general problem has received substantial attention in human biomedical applications within the context of biostatistical survival analysis. Here, we consider cause-specific mortality from a modern biostatistical perspective. This requires carefully defining what we mean by cause-specific mortality and then providing an appropriate hazard-based representation as a competing risks problem. This leads to the general solution of cause-specific mortality as the cumulative incidence function (CIF). We describe the appropriate generalization of the fully nonparametric staggered-entry Kaplan–Meier survival estimator to cause-specific mortality via the nonparametric CIF estimator (NPCIFE), which in many situations offers an attractive alternative to the Heisey–Fuller estimator. An advantage of the NPCIFE is that it lends itself readily to risk factors analysis with standard software for Cox proportional hazards model. The competing risks–based approach also clarifies issues regarding another intuitive but erroneous "cause-specific mortality" estimator based on the Kaplan–Meier survival estimator and commonly seen in the life sciences literature.

Overview of the reanalysis of the Harvard Six Cities Study and American Cancer Society Study of Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality.

PubMed

Krewski, Daniel; Burnett, Richard T; Goldberg, Mark S; Hoover, B Kristin; Siemiatycki, Jack; Jerrett, Michael; Abrahamowicz, Michal; White, Warren H

This article provides an overview of the Reanalysis Study of the Harvard Six Cities and the American Cancer Society (ACS) studies of particulate air pollution and mortality. The previous findings of the studies have been subject to debate. In response, a reanalysis team, comprised of Canadian and American researchers, was invited to participate in an independent reanalysis project to address the concerns. Phase I of the reanalysis involved the design of data audits to determine whether each study conformed to the consistency and accuracy of their data. Phase II of the reanalysis involved conducting a series of comprehensive analyses using alternative statistical methods. Alternative models were also used to identify covariates that may confound or modify the association of particulate air pollution as well as identify sensitive population subgroups. The audit demonstrated that the data in the original analyses were of high quality, as were the risk estimates reported by the original investigators. The sensitivity analysis illustrated that the mortality risk estimates reported in both studies were found to be robust against alternative Cox models. Detailed investigation of the covariate effects found a significant modifying effect of education and a relative risk of mortality associated with fine particles and declining education levels. The study team applied spatial analytic methods to the ACS data, resulting in various levels of spatial autocorrelations supporting the reported association for fine particles mortality of the original investigators as well as demonstrating a significant association between sulfur dioxide and mortality. Collectively, our reanalysis suggest that mortality may be attributable to more than one component of the complex mixture of ambient air pollutants for U.S. urban areas.

The Human Impact of Earthquakes: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Packer, Catherine; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Introduction. Population growth and increasing urbanization in earthquake-prone areas suggest that earthquake impacts on human populations will increase in the coming decades. Recent large earthquakes affecting large populations in Japan, Haiti, Chile and New Zealand are evidence of this trend and also illustrate significant variations in outcomes such damage and mortality levels. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of earthquakes on human populations in terms of mortality, injury and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of earthquakes were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to mid 2009 of earthquake events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications, ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between earthquake mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. From 1980 through 2009, there were a total of 372,634 deaths (range 314,634-412,599), 995,219 injuries (range: 845,345-1,145,093), and more than 61 million people affected by earthquakes, and mortality was greatest in Asia. Inconsistent reporting across data sources suggests that the numbers injured and affected are likely underestimates. Findings from a systematic review of the literature indicate that the primary cause of earthquake-related death was trauma due to building collapse and, the very young and the elderly were at increased mortality risk, while gender was not consistently associated with mortality risk. Conclusions. Strategies to mitigate the impact of future earthquakes should include improvements to the built environment and a focus on populations most vulnerable to mortality and injury. PMID:23857161

Variability in the measurement of hospital-wide mortality rates.

PubMed

Shahian, David M; Wolf, Robert E; Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kirle, Leslie; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

2010-12-23

Several countries use hospital-wide mortality rates to evaluate the quality of hospital care, although the usefulness of this metric has been questioned. Massachusetts policymakers recently requested an assessment of methods to calculate this aggregate mortality metric for use as a measure of hospital quality. The Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy provided four vendors with identical information on 2,528,624 discharges from Massachusetts acute care hospitals from October 1, 2004, through September 30, 2007. Vendors applied their risk-adjustment algorithms and provided predicted probabilities of in-hospital death for each discharge and for hospital-level observed and expected mortality rates. We compared the numbers and characteristics of discharges and hospitals included by each of the four methods. We also compared hospitals' standardized mortality ratios and classification of hospitals with mortality rates that were higher or lower than expected, according to each method. The proportions of discharges that were included by each method ranged from 28% to 95%, and the severity of patients' diagnoses varied widely. Because of their discharge-selection criteria, two methods calculated in-hospital mortality rates (4.0% and 5.9%) that were twice the state average (2.1%). Pairwise associations (Pearson correlation coefficients) of discharge-level predicted mortality probabilities ranged from 0.46 to 0.70. Hospital-performance categorizations varied substantially and were sometimes completely discordant. In 2006, a total of 12 of 28 hospitals that had higher-than-expected hospital-wide mortality when classified by one method had lower-than-expected mortality when classified by one or more of the other methods. Four common methods for calculating hospital-wide mortality produced substantially different results. This may have resulted from a lack of standardized national eligibility and exclusion criteria, different statistical methods, or fundamental flaws in the hypothesized association between hospital-wide mortality and quality of care. (Funded by the Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy.).

Validated Risk Score for Predicting 6-Month Mortality in Infective Endocarditis.

PubMed

Park, Lawrence P; Chu, Vivian H; Peterson, Gail; Skoutelis, Athanasios; Lejko-Zupa, Tatjana; Bouza, Emilio; Tattevin, Pierre; Habib, Gilbert; Tan, Ren; Gonzalez, Javier; Altclas, Javier; Edathodu, Jameela; Fortes, Claudio Querido; Siciliano, Rinaldo Focaccia; Pachirat, Orathai; Kanj, Souha; Wang, Andrew

2016-04-18

Host factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6-month mortality in IE. Using a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]-Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000-2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6-month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE-PLUS, 2008-2012, n=1197). The 6-month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE-PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE-PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left-sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6-month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables. Six-month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Association of Anxiety and Depression With All‐Cause Mortality in Individuals With Coronary Heart Disease

PubMed Central

Watkins, Lana L.; Koch, Gary G.; Sherwood, Andrew; Blumenthal, James A.; Davidson, Jonathan R.T.; O'Connor, Christopher; Sketch, Michael H.

2013-01-01

Background Depression has been related to mortality in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients, but few studies have evaluated the role of anxiety or the role of the co‐occurrence of depression and anxiety. We examined whether anxiety is associated with increased risk of mortality after accounting for depression in individuals with established CHD. Methods and Results The cohort was composed of 934 men and women with confirmed CHD (mean age, 62±11 years) who completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (HADS) during hospitalization for coronary angiography. Over the 3‐year follow‐up period, there were 133 deaths. Elevated scores on the HADS anxiety subscale (HADS‐A≥8) were associated with increased risk of mortality after accounting for established risk factors including age, congestive heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction, 3‐vessel disease, and renal disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27; 95% CI, 1.55 to 3.33; P<0.001). Elevated scores on the HADS depression subscale (HADS‐D≥8) were also associated with increased risk of mortality (HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.47 to 3.22; P<0.001). When both psychosocial factors were included in the model, each maintained an association with mortality (anxiety, HR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.83; P=0.006; depression, HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.58; P=0.025). Estimation of the HR for patients with both anxiety and depression versus those with neither revealed a larger HR than for patients with either factor alone (HR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.95 to 4.94; P<0.001). Conclusions Anxiety is associated with increased risk of mortality in CHD patients, particularly when comorbid with depression. Future studies should focus on the co‐occurrence of these psychosocial factors as markers of increased mortality risk. PMID:23537805

Fine particulate air pollution and all-cause mortality within the Harvard Six-Cities Study: variations in risk by period of exposure.

PubMed

Villeneuve, Paul J; Goldberg, Mark S; Krewski, Daniel; Burnett, Richard T; Chen, Yue

2002-11-01

We used Poisson regression methods to examine the relation between temporal changes in the levels of fine particulate air pollution (PM(2.5)) and the risk of mortality among participants of the Harvard Six Cities longitudinal study. Our analyses were based on 1430 deaths that occurred between 1974 and 1991 in a cohort that accumulated 105,714 person-years of follow-up. For each city, indices of PM(2.5) were derived using daily samples. Individual level data were collected on several risk factors including: smoking, education, body mass index (BMI), and occupational exposure to dusts. Time-dependent indices of PM(2.5) were created across 13 calendar periods (< 1979, 1979, 1980, em leader, 1989, >/= 1990) to explore whether recent or chronic exposures were more important predictors of mortality. The relative risk (RR) of mortality calculated using Poisson regression based on average city-specific exposures that remained constant during follow-up was 1.31 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.12-1.52] per 18.6 microg/m(3) of PM(2.5). This result was similar to the risk calculated using the Cox model (RR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.08-1.46). The RR of mortality was attenuated when the Poisson regression model included a time-dependent estimate of exposure (RR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.04-1.36). There was little variation in RR across time-dependent indices of PM(2.5). The attenuated risk of mortality that was observed with a time-dependent index of PM(2.5) is due to the combined influence of city-specific variations in mortality rates and decreasing levels of air pollution that occurred during follow-up. The RR of mortality associated with PM(2.5) did not depend on when exposure occurred in relation to death, possibly because of little variation between the time-dependent city-specific exposure indices.

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952–2006: an age-period-cohort analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. Methods Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Results Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950–1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. Conclusions While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study. PMID:24725381

Relationships between social isolation, neighborhood poverty, and cancer mortality in a population-based study of US adults

PubMed Central

Illescas, Alex H.; Hohl, Bernadette C.; Llanos, Adana A. M.

2017-01-01

Background Social isolation is an important determinant of all-cause mortality, with evidence suggesting an association with cancer-specific mortality as well. In this study, we examined the associations between social isolation and neighborhood poverty (independently and jointly) on cancer mortality in a population-based sample of US adults. Methods Using data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III; 1988–1994), NHANES III Linked Mortality File (through 2011) and 1990 Census, we estimated the relationship between social isolation and high neighborhood poverty and time-to-cancer death using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. We examined the associations of each factor independently and explored the multiplicative and additive interaction effects on cancer mortality risk and also analyzed these associations by sex. Results Among 16 044 US adults with 17–23 years of follow-up, there were 1133 cancer deaths. Social isolation (HR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.01–1.54) and high neighborhood poverty (HR 1.31, 95% CI: 1.08–1.60) were associated with increased risk of cancer mortality adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity; in sex-specific estimates this increase in risk was evident among females only (HR 1.39, 95% CI: 1.04–1.86). These associations were attenuated upon further adjustment for socioeconomic status. There was no evidence of joint effects of social isolation and high neighborhood poverty on cancer mortality overall or in the sex-stratified models. Conclusions These findings suggest that social isolation and higher neighborhood poverty are independently associated with increased risk of cancer mortality, although there is no evidence to support our a priori hypothesis of a joint effect. PMID:28273125

Household Fuel Use and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Golestan Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Mitter, Sumeet S.; Vedanthan, Rajesh; Islami, Farhad; Pourshams, Akram; Khademi, Hooman; Kamangar, Farin; Abnet, Christian C.; Dawsey, Sanford M.; Pharoah, Paul D.; Brennan, Paul; Fuster, Valentin; Boffetta, Paolo; Malekzadeh, Reza

2016-01-01

Background Household air pollution is the third largest risk factor for global disease burden, but direct links with cardiovascular disease mortality are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between household fuel use and cardiovascular disease mortality. Methods and Results The Golestan Cohort Study in northeastern Iran enrolled 50045 individuals aged 40 to 75 years between 2004 and 2008, and collected data on lifetime household fuel use and other baseline exposures. Participants were followed through 2012 with a 99% successful follow-up rate. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for associations between pehen (local dung), wood, kerosene/diesel, or natural gas burning for cooking and heating and all-cause and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for lifetime exposure to each of these fuels and potential confounders. 3073 participants (6%) died during follow-up, 78% of which were attributable to non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular, oncologic and respiratory illnesses. Adjusted 10-year HRs from kerosene/diesel burning were 1.06 (95% CI 1.02-1.10), and 1.11 (1.06-1.17), respectively, for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Subtype-specific analyses revealed a significant increase in ischemic heart disease (10-year HR 1.14 (1.06-1.21)) and a trend toward cerebrovascular accident (10-year HR 1.08 (0.99-1.17)) mortality. Stratification by sex revealed a potential signal for increased risk for all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality among women versus men, with similar risk for ischemic heart disease mortality. Conclusions Household exposure to high-pollution fuels was associated with increased risk for all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. Replicating these results worldwide would support efforts to reduce such exposures. PMID:27297340

Depressive symptoms, physical inactivity and risk of cardiovascular mortality in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Win, Sithu; Parakh, Kapil; Eze-Nliam, Chete M; Gottdiener, John S; Kop, Willem J

2011-01-01

Background Depressed older individuals have a higher mortality than older persons without depression. Depression is associated with physical inactivity, and low levels of physical activity have been shown in some cohorts to be a partial mediator of the relationship between depression and cardiovascular events and mortality. Methods A cohort of 5888 individuals (mean 72.8±5.6 years, 58% female, 16% African-American) from four US communities was followed for an average of 10.3 years. Self-reported depressive symptoms (10-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) were assessed annually and self-reported physical activity was assessed at baseline and at 3 and 7 years. To estimate how much of the increased risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with depressive symptoms was due to physical inactivity, Cox regression with time-varying covariates was used to determine the percentage change in the log HR of depressive symptoms for cardiovascular mortality after adding physical activity variables. Results At baseline, 20% of participants scored above the cut-off for depressive symptoms. There were 2915 deaths (49.8%), of which 1176 (20.1%) were from cardiovascular causes. Depressive symptoms and physical inactivity each independently increased the risk of cardiovascular mortality and were strongly associated with each other (all p<0.001). Individuals with both depressive symptoms and physical inactivity had greater cardiovascular mortality than those with either individually (p<0.001, log rank test). Physical inactivity reduced the log HR of depressive symptoms for cardiovascular mortality by 26% after adjustment. This was similar for persons with (25%) and without (23%) established coronary heart disease. Conclusions Physical inactivity accounted for a significant proportion of the risk of cardiovascular mortality due to depressive symptoms in older adults, regardless of coronary heart disease status. PMID:21339320

The impact of obesity on US mortality levels: the importance of age and cohort factors in population estimates.

PubMed

Masters, Ryan K; Reither, Eric N; Powers, Daniel A; Yang, Y Claire; Burger, Andrew E; Link, Bruce G

2013-10-01

To estimate the percentage of excess death for US Black and White men and women associated with high body mass, we examined the combined effects of age variation in the obesity-mortality relationship and cohort variation in age-specific obesity prevalence. We examined 19 National Health Interview Survey waves linked to individual National Death Index mortality records, 1986-2006, for age and cohort patterns in the population-level association between obesity and US adult mortality. The estimated percentage of adult deaths between 1986 and 2006 associated with overweight and obesity was 5.0% and 15.6% for Black and White men, and 26.8% and 21.7% for Black and White women, respectively. We found a substantially stronger association than previous research between obesity and mortality risk at older ages, and an increasing percentage of mortality attributable to obesity across birth cohorts. Previous research has likely underestimated obesity's impact on US mortality. Methods attentive to cohort variation in obesity prevalence and age variation in obesity's effect on mortality risk suggest that obesity significantly shapes US mortality levels, placing it at the forefront of concern for public health action.

Inequalities in health: living conditions and infant mortality in Northeastern Brazil

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Renata Alves da Silva; Santos, Victor Santana; de Melo, Cláudia Moura; Gurgel, Ricardo Queiroz; Oliveira, Cristiane Costa da Cunha

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze the variation of infant mortality as per condition of life in the urban setting. METHODS Ecological study performed with data regarding registered deaths of children under the age of one who resided in Aracaju, SE, Northeastern Brazil, from 2001 to 2010. Infant mortality inequalities were assessed based on the spatial distribution of the Living Conditions Index for each neighborhood, classified into four strata. The average mortality rates of 2001-2005 and 2006-2010 were compared using the Student’s t-test. RESULTS Average infant mortality rates decreased from 25.3 during 2001-2005 to 17.7 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2006-2010. Despite the decrease in the rates in all the strata during that decade, inequality of infant mortality risks increased in neighborhoods with worse living conditions compared with that in areas with better living conditions. CONCLUSIONS Infant mortality rates in Aracaju showed a decline, but with important differences among neighborhoods. The assessment based on a living condition perspective can explain the differences in the risks of infant mortality rates in urban areas, highlighting health inequalities in infant mortality as a multidimensional issue. PMID:25741650

Relationship between polycythemia and in-hospital mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with low-risk pulmonary embolism

PubMed Central

Guo, Lu; Chughtai, Aamer Rasheed; Jiang, Hongli; Gao, Lingyun; Yang, Yan; Yang, Yang; Liu, Yuejian

2016-01-01

Backgrounds Pulmonary embolism (PE) is frequent in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and associated with high mortality. This multi-center retrospective study was performed to investigate if secondary polycythemia is associated with in-hospital mortality in COPD patients with low-risk PE. Methods We identified COPD patients with proven PE between October, 2005 and October, 2015. Patients in risk classes III–V on the basis of the PESI score were excluded. We extracted demographic, clinical and laboratory information at the time of admission from medical records. All subjects were followed until hospital discharge to identify all-cause mortality. Results We enrolled 629 consecutive patients with COPD and PE at low risk: 132 of them (21.0%) with and 497 (79.0%) without secondary polycythemia. Compared with those without polycythemia, the polycythemia group had significantly lower forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) level (0.9±0.3 vs. 1.4±0.5, P=0.000), lower PaO2 and SpO2 as well as higher PaCO2 (P=0.03, P=0.03 and P=0.000, respectively). COPD patients with polycythemia had a higher proportion of arrhythmia in electrocardiogram (ECG) (49.5% vs. 35.7%, P=0.02), a longer hospital duration time (15.3±10.1 vs. 9.7±9.1, P=0.001), a higher mechanical ventilation rate (noninvasive and invasive, 51.7% vs. 30.3%, P=0.04 and 31.0% vs. 7.9%, P=0.04, respectively), and a higher in-hospital mortality (12.1% vs. 6.6%, P=0.04). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that polycythemia was associated with mortality in COPD patients with low-risk PE (adjusted OR 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.66). Conclusions Polycythemia is an independent risk factor for all-cause in-hospital mortality in COPD patients with PE at low risk. PMID:28066591

Accuracy and Calibration of Computational Approaches for Inpatient Mortality Predictive Modeling.

PubMed

Nakas, Christos T; Schütz, Narayan; Werners, Marcus; Leichtle, Alexander B

2016-01-01

Electronic Health Record (EHR) data can be a key resource for decision-making support in clinical practice in the "big data" era. The complete database from early 2012 to late 2015 involving hospital admissions to Inselspital Bern, the largest Swiss University Hospital, was used in this study, involving over 100,000 admissions. Age, sex, and initial laboratory test results were the features/variables of interest for each admission, the outcome being inpatient mortality. Computational decision support systems were utilized for the calculation of the risk of inpatient mortality. We assessed the recently proposed Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score (ALaRMS) model, and further built generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, artificial neural networks, and decision tree systems for the predictive modeling of the risk of inpatient mortality. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for ALaRMS marginally corresponded to the anticipated accuracy (AUC = 0.858). Penalized logistic regression methodology provided a better result (AUC = 0.872). Decision tree and neural network-based methodology provided even higher predictive performance (up to AUC = 0.912 and 0.906, respectively). Additionally, decision tree-based methods can efficiently handle Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that have a significant amount of missing records (in up to >50% of the studied features) eliminating the need for imputation in order to have complete data. In conclusion, we show that statistical learning methodology can provide superior predictive performance in comparison to existing methods and can also be production ready. Statistical modeling procedures provided unbiased, well-calibrated models that can be efficient decision support tools for predicting inpatient mortality and assigning preventive measures.

Systematic review of randomised controlled trials of multiple risk factor interventions for preventing coronary heart disease.

PubMed Central

Ebrahim, S.; Smith, G. D.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of multiple risk factor intervention in reducing cardiovascular risk factors, total mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease among adults. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials in workforces and in primary care in which subjects were randomly allocated to more than one of six interventions (stopping smoking, exercise, dietary advice, weight control, antihypertensive drugs, and cholesterol lowering drugs) and followed up for at least six months. SUBJECTS: Adults aged 17-73 years, 903000 person years of observation were included in nine trials with clinical event outcomes and 303000 person years in five trials with risk factor outcomes alone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking rates, blood cholesterol concentrations, total mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Net decreases in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking prevalence, and blood cholesterol were 4.2 mm Hg (SE 0.19 mm Hg), 2.7 mm Hg (0.09 mm Hg), 4.2% (0.3%), and 0.14 mmol/l (0.01 mmol/l) respectively. In the nine trials with clinical event end points the pooled odds ratios for total and coronary heart disease mortality were 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.02) and 0.96 (0.88 to 1.04) respectively. Statistical heterogeneity between the studies with respect to changes in mortality and risk factors was due to trials focusing on hypertensive participants and those using considerable amounts of drug treatment, with only these trials showing significant reductions in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The pooled effects of multiple risk factor intervention on mortality were insignificant and a small, but potentially important, benefit of treatment (about a 10% reduction in mortality) may have been missed. Changes in risk factors were modest, were related to the amount of pharmacological treatment used, and in some cases may have been overestimated because of regression to the mean, lack of intention to treat analyses, habituation to blood pressure measurement, and use of self reports of smoking. Interventions using personal or family counselling and education with or without pharmacological treatments seem to be more effective at reducing risk factors and therefore mortality in high risk hypertensive populations. The evidence suggests that such interventions implemented through standard health education methods have limited use in the general population. Health protection through fiscal and legislative measure may be more effective. PMID:9193292

A cohort study of mortality among Ontario pipe trades workers

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, M; Verma, D

2004-01-01

Aims: To study mortality in a cohort of members of the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry of the United States and Canada and to compare results with two previous proportional mortality studies. Methods: A cohort of 25 285 workers who entered the trade after 1949 was assembled from records of the international head office. Mortality was ascertained by linkage to the Canadian Mortality Registry at Statistics Canada. Standardised mortality ratios were computed using Ontario general population mortality rates as the reference. Results: There were significant increases in lung cancer mortality rates (SMR 1.27; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.42). Increased lung cancer risk was observed among plumbers, pipefitters, and sprinkler fitters. Increased risk was observed among workers joining the Union as late as the 1970s. A random effects meta-analysis of this study and the two PMR studies found significant increases in oesophageal (RR 1.24; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.53), lung (RR 1.31; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.44), and haematological/lymphatic (RR 1.21; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.35) malignancies. Conclusions: The mortality pattern is consistent with the effects of occupational exposure to asbestos. Increased risk due to other respiratory carcinogens such as welding fume cannot be excluded. There are substantial amounts of asbestos in place in industrial and commercial environments. The education and training of workers to protect themselves against inhalation hazards will be necessary well into the future. PMID:15317913

Lower Performance in Orientation to Time and Place Associates with Greater Risk of Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in the Oldest Old: Leiden 85-Plus Study.

PubMed

Rostamian, Somayeh; van Buchem, Mark A; Jukema, J Wouter; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Poortvliet, Rosalinde K E; de Cren, Anton J M; Sabayan, Behnam

2017-01-01

Background: Impairment in orientation to time and place is commonly observed in community-dwelling older individuals. Nevertheless, the clinical significance of this has been not fully explored. In this study, we investigated the link between performance in orientation domains and future risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in a non-hospital setting of the oldest old adults. Methods: We included 528 subjects free of myocardial infarction (Group A), 477 individuals free of stroke/transient ischemic attack (Group B), and 432 subjects free of both myocardial infarction and stroke/transient ischemic attack (Group C) at baseline from the population-based Leiden 85-plus cohort study. Participants were asked to answer five questions related to orientation to time and five questions related to orientation to place. 5-year risks of first-time fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal stroke, as well as cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality, were estimated using the multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: In the multivariable analyses, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors, each point lower performance in "orientation to time" was significantly associated with higher risk of first-time myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.67, P = 0.007), first-time stroke (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.12-1.64, P = 0.002), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.06-1.54, P = 0.009) and non-cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.20-1.56, P < 0.001). Similarly, each point lower performance in "orientation to place" was significantly associated with higher risk of first-time myocardial infarction (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.25-2.22, P = 0.001), first-time stroke (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05-1.82, P = 0.016), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.00-1.82, P = 0.054) and non-cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.20-1.77, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Lower performance in orientation to time and place in advanced age is independently related to higher risk of myocardial infarction, stroke and mortality. Impaired orientation might be an early sign of covert vascular injuries, putting subjects at greater risk of cardiovascular events and mortality.

A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE CONCERNING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OBESITY AND MORTALITY IN THE ELDERLY

PubMed Central

DONINI, L. M.; SAVINA, C.; GENNARO, E.; DE FELICE, M. R.; ROSANO, A.; PANDOLFO, M. M.; BALZO, V. DEL; CANNELLA, C.; RITZ, P.; CHUMLEA, WM. C.

2014-01-01

Introduction Obesity is a risk factor for chronic diseases and premature mortality, but the extent of these associations among the elderly is under debate. The aim of this systematic literature review (SR) is to collate and critically assess the available information of the impact of obesity on mortality in the elderly. Methods In PubMed, there are three-hundred twelve papers on the relationship between obesity and mortality among older adults. These papers were analysed on the basis of their abstracts, and sixteen studies were considered suitable for the purpose of the study. It was possible to perform a pooled estimate for aggregated data in three different studies. Conclusion The results of this SR document that an increased mortality in obese older adults. The limitation of BMI to index obesity and the noted protective action of a moderate increase in BMI on mortality are highlighted. Waist circumference is an indicator of central adiposity and potentially as good a risk factor for mortality as BMI in obese elderly adults. PMID:22238007

Mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians and associated factors

PubMed Central

Hyde, Zoë; Smith, Kate; Flicker, Leon; Atkinson, David; Almeida, Osvaldo P.; Lautenschlager, Nicola T.; Dwyer, Anna

2018-01-01

Objectives We aimed to describe mortality in a cohort of remote-living Aboriginal Australians using electronic record linkage. Methods Between 2004 and 2006, 363 Aboriginal people living in remote Western Australia (WA) completed a questionnaire assessing medical history and behavioural risk factors. We obtained mortality records for the cohort from the WA Data Linkage System and compared them to data for the general population. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of mortality over a 9-year follow-up period. Results The leading causes of mortality were diabetes, renal failure, and ischaemic heart disease. Diabetes and renal failure accounted for 28% of all deaths. This differed from both the Australian population as a whole, and the general Indigenous Australian population. The presence of chronic disease did not predict mortality, nor did behaviours such as smoking. Only age, male sex, poor mobility, and cognitive impairment were risk factors. Conclusions To reduce premature mortality, public health practitioners should prioritise the prevention and treatment of diabetes and renal disease in Aboriginal people in remote WA. This will require a sustained and holistic approach. PMID:29621272

Fish, omega-3 long-chain fatty acids, and all-cause mortality in a low-income US population: results from the Southern Community Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Villegas, R; Takata, Y; Murff, H; Blot, WJ

2015-01-01

Background We examined associations between fish and n-3 LCFA and mortality in a prospective study with a large proportion of blacks with low socio-economic status. Methods and Results We observed 6,914 deaths among 77,604 participants with dietary data (follow-up time 5.5 years). Of these, 77,100 participants had available time-to-event data. We investigated associations between mortality with fish and n-3 LCFA intake, adjusting for age, race, sex, kcals/day, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, income, education, chronic disease, insurance coverage, and meat intake. Intakes of fried fish, baked/grilled fish and total fish, but not tuna, were associated with lower mortality among all participants. Analysis of trends in overall mortality by quintiles of intake showed that intakes of fried fish, baked/grilled fish and total fish, but not tuna, were associated with lower risk of total mortality among all participants. When participants with chronic disease were excluded, the observed association remained only between intakes of baked/grilled fish, while fried fish was associated with lower risk of mortality in participants with prevalent chronic disease. The association between n-3 LCFA intake and lower risk of mortality was significant among those with diabetes at baseline. There was an inverse association of mortality with fried fish intake in men, but not women. Total fish and baked/grilled fish intakes were associated with lower mortality among blacks while fried fish intake was associated with lower mortality among whites. Effect modifications were not statistically significant. Conclusion Our findings suggest a modest benefit of fish consumption on mortality. PMID:26026210

An Overview of Infant Mortality Trends in Qatar from 2004 to 2014

PubMed Central

Al-Thani, Mohammed; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Toumi, Amine; Khalifa, Shams Eldin

2017-01-01

Background Infant mortality is an important health indicator that estimates population well-being. Infant mortality has declined globally but is still a major public health challenge. This article provides the characteristics, causes, burden, and trends of infant mortality in Qatar. Methods Frequencies, percentages, and rates were calculated using data from birth-death registries over 2004–2014 to describe infant mortality by nationality, gender, and age group. We calculated the relative risks of the top causes of infant mortality among subgroups according to the 10th Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10, Version 2016). Results During 2004–2014, 204,224 live births and 1,505 infant deaths were recorded. The infant mortality rate (IMR) averaged 7.4/1000 live births (males 8.1, females 6.6, non-Qataris 7.7, and Qataris 6.8). IMR declined 20% from 2004 to 2014. The decline in IMR was significant for the overall population of infants (p=0.006), male infants (p=0.04), females (p=0.006), and for non-Qatari males (p=0.007) and non-Qatari females (p=0.007). The leading causes of infant mortality were congenital malformations (all types) (34.5%), low birth weight (LBW) (27%), and respiratory distress of newborns (2.8%). Male infants had a higher risk of mortality than female infants due to a congenital malformation of lungs (p=0.02), other congenital malformations, not elsewhere classified (p=0.01), and cardiovascular disorders (p=0.05). Conclusion The study shows that infant mortality among male infants is high due to the top infant mortality-related disorders, and male infants have a higher risk of mortality than female infants. PMID:29152426

An Overview of Infant Mortality Trends in Qatar from 2004 to 2014.

PubMed

Al-Thani, Mohammed; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Toumi, Amine; Khalifa, Shams Eldin; Akram, Hammad

2017-09-09

Background Infant mortality is an important health indicator that estimates population well-being. Infant mortality has declined globally but is still a major public health challenge. This article provides the characteristics, causes, burden, and trends of infant mortality in Qatar. Methods Frequencies, percentages, and rates were calculated using data from birth-death registries over 2004-2014 to describe infant mortality by nationality, gender, and age group. We calculated the relative risks of the top causes of infant mortality among subgroups according to the 10 th Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10, Version 2016). Results During 2004-2014, 204,224 live births and 1,505 infant deaths were recorded. The infant mortality rate (IMR) averaged 7.4/1000 live births (males 8.1, females 6.6, non-Qataris 7.7, and Qataris 6.8). IMR declined 20% from 2004 to 2014. The decline in IMR was significant for the overall population of infants (p=0.006), male infants (p=0.04), females (p=0.006), and for non-Qatari males (p=0.007) and non-Qatari females (p=0.007). The leading causes of infant mortality were congenital malformations (all types) (34.5%), low birth weight (LBW) (27%), and respiratory distress of newborns (2.8%). Male infants had a higher risk of mortality than female infants due to a congenital malformation of lungs (p=0.02), other congenital malformations, not elsewhere classified (p=0.01), and cardiovascular disorders (p=0.05). Conclusion The study shows that infant mortality among male infants is high due to the top infant mortality-related disorders, and male infants have a higher risk of mortality than female infants.

Small area study of mortality among people living near multiple sources of air pollution

PubMed Central

Michelozzi, P.; Fusco, D.; Forastiere, F.; Ancona, C.; Dell'Orco, V.; Perucci, C. A.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVE: In the area of Malagrotta, a suburb of Rome (Italy), a large waste disposal site, a waste incinerator plant, and an oil refinery plant became operational in the early 1960s and have represented three major sources of air pollution. To evaluate the potential health risk due to airborne contamination around these point sources, a small area analysis of mortality was conducted. Cancer of the liver, larynx, lung, kidney, lymphatic, and haematopoietic systems were evaluated. METHODS: Sex and age specific mortality (1987-93) and population denominators (1991) were available for the census tracts of the metropolitan area of Rome. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed separately for males and females in bands of increasing distance from the plants, up to a radius of 10 km. Stone's test for the decline in risk with distance was performed with increments in radius of 1 km; SMRs were also computed after adjusting for a four level index of socioeconomic status. RESULTS: No overall excess or decline in risk with distance was found for liver, lung, and lymphohaematopoietic cancers in either sex. For laryngeal cancer, an increased but not significant risk was found at 0-3 km and at 3-8 km. A significant decline with distance in mortality from laryngeal cancer was found among men (p = 0.03); the trend remained after adjusting for the socioeconomic index (p = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: The study showed no association between proximity to the industrial sites and mortality for most of the several conditions considered. However, mortality from laryngeal cancer declined with distance from the sources of pollution. This result is interesting, as previous findings of an increased risk of laryngeal cancer near incinerators have been controversial.   PMID:9861183

Atrial Fibrillation in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Prevalence, Clinical Correlations, and Mortality in a Large High‐Risk Population

PubMed Central

Siontis, Konstantinos C.; Geske, Jeffrey B.; Ong, Kevin; Nishimura, Rick A.; Ommen, Steve R.; Gersh, Bernard J.

2014-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common sequela of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but evidence on its prevalence, risk factors, and effect on mortality is sparse. We sought to evaluate the prevalence of AF, identify clinical and echocardiographic correlates, and assess its effect on mortality in a large high‐risk HCM population. Methods and Results We identified HCM patients who underwent evaluation at our institution from 1975 to 2012. AF was defined by known history (either chronic or paroxysmal), electrocardiogram, or Holter monitoring at index visit. We examined clinical and echocardiographic variables in association with AF. The effect of AF on overall and cause‐specific mortality was evaluated with multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Of 3673 patients with HCM, 650 (18%) had AF. Patients with AF were older and more symptomatic (P<0.001). AF was less common among patients with obstructive HCM phenotype and was associated with larger left atria, higher E/e’ ratios, and worse cardiopulmonary exercise tolerance (all P values<0.001). During median (interquartile range) follow‐up of 4.1 (0.2 to 10) years, 1069 (29%) patients died. Patients with AF had worse survival compared to those without AF (P<0.001). In multivariate analysis adjusted for established risk factors of mortality in HCM, the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for the effect of AF on overall mortality was 1.48 (1.27 to 1.71). AF did not have an effect on sudden or nonsudden cardiac death. Conclusions In this large referral HCM population, approximately 1 in 5 patients had AF. AF was a strong predictor of mortality, even after adjustment for established risk factors. PMID:24965028

Endotoxemia and mortality prediction in ICU and other settings: underlying risk and co-detection of gram negative bacteremia are confounders

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction The interdependence between endotoxemia, gram negative (GN) bacteremia and mortality has been extensively studied. Underlying patient risk and GN bacteremia types are possible confounders of the relationship. Methods Published studies with ≥10 patients in either ICU or non-ICU settings, endotoxemia detection by limulus assay, reporting mortality proportions and ≥1 GN bacteremia were included. Summary odds ratios (OR) for mortality were derived across all studies by meta-analysis for the following contrasts: sub-groups with either endotoxemia (group three), GN bacteremia (group two) or both (group one) each versus the group with neither detected (group four; reference group). The mortality proportion for group four is the proxy measure of study level risk within L'Abbé plots. Results Thirty-five studies were found. Among nine studies in an ICU setting, the OR for mortality was borderline (OR <2) or non-significantly increased for groups two (GN bacteremia alone) and three (endotoxemia alone) and patient group one (GN bacteremia and endotoxemia co-detected) each versus patient group four (neither endotoxemia nor GN bacteremia detected). The ORs were markedly higher for group one versus group four (OR 6.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.4 -to 11.0 when derived from non-ICU studies. The distributions of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Escherichia coli bacteremias among groups one versus two are significantly unequal. Conclusions The co-detection of GN bacteremia and endotoxemia is predictive of increased mortality risk versus the detection of neither but only in studies undertaken in a non-ICU setting. Variation in GN bacteremia species types and underlying risk are likely unrecognized confounders in the individual studies. PMID:22871090

Inhospital Mortality in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Prospective Cohort Study in Lima, Peru.

PubMed

Zelada, Henry; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio; Manrique, Helard

2016-01-01

Objective. To estimate cause of death and to identify factors associated with risk of inhospital mortality among patients with T2D. Methods. Prospective cohort study performed in a referral public hospital in Lima, Peru. The outcome was time until event, elapsed from hospital admission to discharge or death, and the exposure was the cause of hospital admission. Cox regression was used to evaluate associations of interest reporting Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals. Results. 499 patients were enrolled. Main causes of death were exacerbation of chronic renal failure (38.1%), respiratory infections (35.7%), and stroke (16.7%). During hospital stay, 42 (8.4%) patients died. In multivariable models, respiratory infections (HR = 6.55, p < 0.001), stroke (HR = 7.05, p = 0.003), and acute renal failure (HR = 16.9, p = 0.001) increased the risk of death. In addition, having 2+ (HR = 7.75, p < 0.001) and 3+ (HR = 21.1, p < 0.001) conditions increased the risk of dying. Conclusion. Respiratory infections, stroke, and acute renal disease increased the risk of inhospital mortality among hospitalized patients with T2D. Infections are not the only cause of inhospital mortality. Certain causes of hospitalization require standardized and aggressive management to decrease mortality.

Inhospital Mortality in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Prospective Cohort Study in Lima, Peru

PubMed Central

Zelada, Henry; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio; Manrique, Helard

2016-01-01

Objective. To estimate cause of death and to identify factors associated with risk of inhospital mortality among patients with T2D. Methods. Prospective cohort study performed in a referral public hospital in Lima, Peru. The outcome was time until event, elapsed from hospital admission to discharge or death, and the exposure was the cause of hospital admission. Cox regression was used to evaluate associations of interest reporting Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals. Results. 499 patients were enrolled. Main causes of death were exacerbation of chronic renal failure (38.1%), respiratory infections (35.7%), and stroke (16.7%). During hospital stay, 42 (8.4%) patients died. In multivariable models, respiratory infections (HR = 6.55, p < 0.001), stroke (HR = 7.05, p = 0.003), and acute renal failure (HR = 16.9, p = 0.001) increased the risk of death. In addition, having 2+ (HR = 7.75, p < 0.001) and 3+ (HR = 21.1, p < 0.001) conditions increased the risk of dying. Conclusion. Respiratory infections, stroke, and acute renal disease increased the risk of inhospital mortality among hospitalized patients with T2D. Infections are not the only cause of inhospital mortality. Certain causes of hospitalization require standardized and aggressive management to decrease mortality. PMID:26788522

Terminal illness and the increased mortality risk of conventional antipsychotics in observational studies: a systematic review.

PubMed

Luijendijk, Hendrika J; de Bruin, Niels C; Hulshof, Tessa A; Koolman, Xander

2016-02-01

Numerous large observational studies have shown an increased risk of mortality in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. Health authorities have warned against use of these drugs. However, terminal illness is a potentially strong confounder of the observational findings. So, the objective of this study was to systematically assess whether terminal illness may have biased the observational association between conventional antipsychotics and risk of mortality in elderly patients. Studies were searched in PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, the references of selected studies and articles referring to selected studies (Web of Science). Inclusion criteria were (i) observational studies that estimated (ii) the risk of all-cause mortality in (iii) new elderly users of (iv) conventional antipsychotics compared with atypical antipsychotics or no use. Two investigators assessed the characteristics of the exposure and reference groups, main results, measured confounders and methods used to adjust for unmeasured confounders. We identified 21 studies. All studies were based on administrative medical and pharmaceutical databases. Sicker and older patients received conventional antipsychotics more often than new antipsychotics. The risk of dying was especially high in the first month of use, and when haloperidol was administered per injection or in high doses. Terminal illness was not measured in any study. Instrumental variables that were used were also confounded by terminal illness. We conclude that terminal illness has not been adjusted for in observational studies that reported an increased risk of mortality risk in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. As the validity of the evidence is questionable, so is the warning based on it. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors – Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

2016-01-01

Background: There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. Objectives: We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Methods: Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. Results: We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. Conclusions: There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223–229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151 PMID:27286002

Applying under-sampling techniques and cost-sensitive learning methods on risk assessment of breast cancer.

PubMed

Hsu, Jia-Lien; Hung, Ping-Cheng; Lin, Hung-Yen; Hsieh, Chung-Ho

2015-04-01

Breast cancer is one of the most common cause of cancer mortality. Early detection through mammography screening could significantly reduce mortality from breast cancer. However, most of screening methods may consume large amount of resources. We propose a computational model, which is solely based on personal health information, for breast cancer risk assessment. Our model can be served as a pre-screening program in the low-cost setting. In our study, the data set, consisting of 3976 records, is collected from Taipei City Hospital starting from 2008.1.1 to 2008.12.31. Based on the dataset, we first apply the sampling techniques and dimension reduction method to preprocess the testing data. Then, we construct various kinds of classifiers (including basic classifiers, ensemble methods, and cost-sensitive methods) to predict the risk. The cost-sensitive method with random forest classifier is able to achieve recall (or sensitivity) as 100 %. At the recall of 100 %, the precision (positive predictive value, PPV), and specificity of cost-sensitive method with random forest classifier was 2.9 % and 14.87 %, respectively. In our study, we build a breast cancer risk assessment model by using the data mining techniques. Our model has the potential to be served as an assisting tool in the breast cancer screening.

Risk modeling for ventricular assist device support in post-cardiotomy shock.

PubMed

Alsoufi, Bahaaldin; Rao, Vivek; Tang, Augustine; Maganti, Manjula; Cusimano, Robert

2012-04-01

Post-cardiotomy shock (PCS) has a complex etiology. Although treatment with inotrops and intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) support improves cardiac performance, end-organ injuries are common and lead to prolonged ICU stay, extended hospitalization and increased mortality. Early consideration of mechanical circulatory support may prevent such complications and improve outcome. Between January 1997 and January 2002, 321 patients required IABP and inotropic support for PCS following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) at our institution. Perioperative variables including age, mixed venous saturation (MVO2), inotropic requirements and LV function were analyzed using multivariate statistical methods. All explanatory variables with a univariate p value <0.10 were entered into a stepwise logistic regression model to predict hospital mortality. Odds ratios from significant variables (p < 0.05) in the regression model were used to compose a risk score. Overall hospital mortality was 16%. The independent risk factors for mortality in this population were: MVO2 < 60% (OR = 3.2), milrinone > 0.5 μg/kg/min (OR = 3.2), age > 75 (OR = 2.7), adrenaline > 0.1 μg/kg/min (OR = 1.5). A 15-point risk score was developed based on the regression model. Hospital mortality in patients with a score >6 was 46% (n = 13/28), 3-6 was 31% (n = 9/29) and <3 was 11% (n = 29/264). A significant proportion of patients with PCS continue to face high mortality despite IABP and inotropic support. Advanced age, heavy inotropic dependency and poor oxygen delivery all predicted increased risk for death. Further investigation is needed to assess whether early institution of VAD support could improve outcome in this high-risk group of patients.

Genetic Variation in Complement Component 2 of the Classical Complement Pathway is Associated with Increased Mortality and Infection: A Study of 627 Trauma Patients

PubMed Central

Morris, John A.; Francois, Cedric; Olson, Paul K.; Cotton, Bryan A.; Summar, Marshall; Jenkins, Judith M.; Norris, Patrick R.; Moore, Jason H.; Williams, Anna E.; McNew, Brent S.; Canter, Jeffrey A.

2009-01-01

Trauma is a disease of inflammation. Complement Component 2 (C2) is a protease involved in activation of complement through the classical pathway and has been implicated in a variety of chronic inflammatory diseases. We hypothesized that genetic variation in C2 (E318D) identifies a high-risk subgroup of trauma patients reflecting increased mortality and infection (Ventilator associated pneumonia: VAP). Consequently, genetic variation in C2 may stratify patient risk and illuminate underlying mechanisms for therapeutic intervention. Methods DNA samples from 702 trauma patients were genotyped for C2 E318D and linked with covariates (age: mean 42.8 years, gender: 74% male, ethnicity: 80% Caucasian, mechanism: 84% blunt, ISS: mean 25.0, admission lactate: mean 3.13 mEq/L) and outcomes: mortality 9.9% and VAP: 18.5%. VAP was defined by quantitative bronchoalveolar lavage (>104). Multivariate regression determined the relationship of genotype and covariates to risk of death and VAP. However, patients with ISS ≥ 45 were excluded from the multivariate analysis, as magnitude of injury overwhelms genetics and covariates in determining outcome. Results 52 patients (8.3%) had the high-risk heterozygous genotype, associated with a significant increase in mortality and VAP. Conclusion In 702 trauma patients, 8.3% had a high-risk genetic variation in C2 associated with increased mortality (OR=2.65) and infection (OR=2.00). This variation: 1) Identifies a previously unknown high risk group for infection and mortality; 2) Can be determined on admission; 3) May provide opportunity for early therapeutic intervention; and 4) Requires validation in a distinct cohort of patients. PMID:19430225

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mortality and Repeated Measurement of Explanatory Risk Factors in a 25 Years Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Skalická, Věra; Ringdal, Kristen; Witvliet, Margot I.

2015-01-01

Background Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality can be explained by different groups of risk factors. However, little is known whether repeated measurement of risk factors can provide better explanation of socioeconomic inequalities in health. Our study examines the extent to which relative educational and income inequalities in mortality might be explained by explanatory risk factors (behavioral, psychosocial, biomedical risk factors and employment) measured at two points in time, as compared to one measurement at baseline. Methods and Findings From the Norwegian total county population-based HUNT Study (years 1984–86 and 1995–1997, respectively) 61 513 men and women aged 25–80 (82.5% of all enrolled) were followed-up for mortality in 25 years until 2009, employing a discrete time survival analysis. Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality were observed. As compared to their highest socioeconomic counterparts, the lowest educated men had an OR (odds ratio) of 1.41 (95% CI 1.29–1.55) and for the lowest income quartile OR = 1.59 (1.48–1.571), for women OR = 1.35 (1.17–1.55), and OR = 1.40 (1.28–1.52), respectively. Baseline explanatory variables attenuated the association between education and income with mortality by 54% and 54% in men, respectively, and by 69% and 18% in women. After entering time-varying variables, this attainment increased to 63% and 59% in men, respectively, and to 25% (income) in women, with no improvement in regard to education in women. Change in biomedical factors and employment did not amend the explanation. Conclusions Addition of a second measurement for risk factors provided only a modest improvement in explaining educational and income inequalities in mortality in Norwegian men and women. Accounting for change in behavior provided the largest improvement in explained inequalities in mortality for both men and women, as compared to measurement at baseline. Psychosocial factors explained the largest share of income inequalities in mortality for men, but repeated measurement of these factors contributed only to modest improvement in explanation. Further comparative research on the relative importance of explanatory pathways assessed over time is needed. PMID:25853571

Educational Differences in U.S. Adult Mortality: A Cohort Perspective*

PubMed Central

Masters, Ryan K.; Hummer, Robert A.; Powers, Daniel A.

2014-01-01

We use hierarchical cross-classified random-effects models to simultaneously measure age, period, and cohort patterns of mortality risk between 1986 and 2006 for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women with less than a high school education, a high school education, and more than a high school education. We examine all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease, lung cancer, and unpreventable cancers. Findings reveal that temporal reductions in black and white men’s and women’s mortality rates were driven entirely by cohort changes in mortality. Findings also demonstrate that disparate cohort effects between education groups widened the education gap in all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease and lung cancer across this time period. Educational disparities in mortality risk from unpreventable cancers, however, did not change. This research uncovers widening educational differences in adult mortality and demonstrates that a cohort perspective provides valuable insights for understanding recent temporal changes in U.S. mortality risk. PMID:25346542

A Prognostic Indicator for Patients Hospitalized with Heart Failure.

PubMed

Snow, Richard; Vogel, Karen; Vanderhoff, Bruce; Kelch, Benjamin P; Ferris, Frank D

2016-12-01

Current methods for identifying patients at risk of dying within six months suffer from clinician biases resulting in underestimation of this risk. As a result, patients who are potentially eligible for hospice and palliative care services frequently do not benefit from these services until they are very close to the end of their lives. To develop a prospective prognostic indicator based on actual survival within Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) claims data that identifies patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) who are at risk of six-month mortality. CMS claims data from January 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009 were reviewed to find the first hospitalization for CHF patients with episode of care diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) 291, 292, and 293. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to determine the associations between demographic and clinical factors and six-month mortality. The resulting model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration. The resulting prospective prognostic model demonstrated fair discrimination with an ROC of 0.71 and good calibration with a Hosmer-Lemshow statistic of 0.98. Across all DRGs, 5% of discharged patients had a six-month mortality risk of greater than 50%. This prospective approach appears to provide a method to identify patients with CHF who would potentially benefit from a clinical evaluation for referral to hospice care or for a palliative care consult due to high predicted risk of dying within 180 days after discharge from a hospital. This approach can provide a model to match at-risk patients with evidenced-based care in a more consistent manner. This method of identifying patients at risk needs further prospective evaluation to see if it has value for clinicians, increases referrals to hospice and palliative care services, and benefits patients and families.

Violence against women increases the risk of infant and child mortality: a case-referent study in Nicaragua.

PubMed Central

Asling-Monemi, Kajsa; Peña, Rodolfo; Ellsberg, Mary Carroll; Persson, Lars Ake

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of violence against mothers on mortality risks for their offspring before 5 years of age in Nicaragua. METHODS: From a demographic database covering a random sample of urban and rural households in Le n, Nicaragua, we identified all live births among women aged 15-49 years. Cases were defined as those who had died before the age of 5 years, between January 1993 and June 1996. For each case, two referents, matched for sex and age at death, were selected from the database. A total of 110 mothers of the cases and 203 mothers of the referents were interviewed using a standard questionnaire covering mothers' experience of physical and sexual violence. The data were analysed for the risk associated with maternal experience of violence of infant and under-5 mortality. FINDINGS: A total of 61% of mothers of cases had a lifetime experience of physical and/or sexual violence compared with 37% of mothers of referents, with a significant association being found between such experiences and mortality among their offspring. Other factors associated with higher infant and under-5 mortality were mother's education (no formal education), age (older), and parity (multiparity). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest an association between physical and sexual violence against mothers, either before or during pregnancy, and an increased risk of under-5 mortality of their offspring. The type and severity of violence was probably more relevant to the risk than the timing, and violence may impact child health through maternal stress or care-giving behaviours rather than through direct trauma itself. PMID:12640470

Cardiovascular disease risk factors in relation to suicide mortality in Asia: prospective cohort study of over one million Korean men and women

PubMed Central

Jee, Sun Ha; Kivimaki, Mika; Kang, Hee-Cheol; Park, Il Su; Samet, Jonathan M.; Batty, G. David

2011-01-01

Aims A potential role for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in the aetiology of suicide has not been comprehensively examined. In addition to being small in scale and poorly characterized, existing studies very rarely sample Asian populations in whom risk factor–suicide relationships may plausibly differ to Caucasian groups. We examined the association between a series of CVD risk factors and future mortality from suicide. Methods and results The Korean Cancer Prevention Study is a prospective cohort study comprising 1 234 927 individuals (445 022 women) aged 30–95 years with extensive measurement of established CVD risk factors at baseline and subsequent mortality surveillance. Fourteen years of follow-up gave rise to 472 deaths (389 in men and 83 in women) from suicide. After adjustment for a range of covariates, in men, smoking hazard ratio; 95% CI: (current vs. never: 1.69; 1.27, 2.24), alcohol intake (1–24 g/day vs. none: 1.29; 1.00, 1.66), blood cholesterol (≥240 vs. <200 mg/dL: 0.54; 0.36, 0.80), body mass index (underweight vs. normal weight: 2.08; 1.26, 3.45), stature [quartile 1(lowest) vs. 4: 1.68; 1.23, 2.30], socioeconomic status [quartile 1(lowest) vs. 4: 1.65; 1.21, 2.24], and martial status (unmarried vs. other: 1.60; 0.83, 3.06) were related to suicide mortality risk. These associations were generally apparent in women, although of lower magnitude. Exercise and blood pressure were not associated with completed suicide. Conclusion In this cohort of Korean men and women, a series of CVD risk factors were associated with an elevated risk of future suicide mortality. PMID:21911340

Sleep duration and all-cause mortality: a critical review of measurement and associations

PubMed Central

Kurina, Lianne M.; McClintock, Martha K.; Chen, Jen-Hao; Waite, Linda J.; Thisted, Ronald A.; Lauderdale, Diane S.

2013-01-01

Purpose Variation in sleep duration has been linked with mortality risk. The purpose of this review is to provide an updated evaluation of the literature on sleep duration and mortality, including a critical examination of sleep duration measurement and an examination of correlates of self-reported sleep duration. Methods We did a systematic search of studies reporting associations between sleep duration and all-cause mortality and extracted the sleep duration measure and the measure(s) of association. Results We identified 42 prospective studies of sleep duration and mortality drawing on 35 distinct study populations across the globe. Unlike previous reviews, we find that the published literature does not support a consistent finding of an association between self-reported sleep duration and mortality. Most studies have employed survey measures of sleep duration, which are not highly correlated with estimates based on physiologic measures. Conclusions Despite a large body of literature, it is premature to conclude, as previous reviews have, that a robust, U-shaped association between sleep duration and mortality risk exists across populations. Careful attention must be paid to measurement, response bias, confounding, and reverse causation in the interpretation of associations between sleep duration and mortality. PMID:23622956

Surgery for left ventricular aneurysm: early and late survival after simple linear repair and endoventricular patch plasty.

PubMed

Lundblad, Runar; Abdelnoor, Michel; Svennevig, Jan Ludvig

2004-09-01

Simple linear resection and endoventricular patch plasty are alternative techniques to repair postinfarction left ventricular aneurysm. The aim of the study was to compare these 2 methods with regard to early mortality and long-term survival. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients undergoing operations between 1989 and 2003. The epidemiologic design was of an exposed (simple linear repair, n = 74) versus nonexposed (endoventricular patch plasty, n = 85) cohort with 2 endpoints: early mortality and long-term survival. The crude effect of aneurysm repair technique versus endpoint was estimated by odds ratio, rate ratio, or relative risk and their 95% confidence intervals. Stratification analysis by using the Mantel-Haenszel method was done to quantify confounders and pinpoint effect modifiers. Adjustment for multiconfounders was performed by using logistic regression and Cox regression analysis. Survival curves were analyzed with the Breslow test and the log-rank test. Early mortality was 8.2% for all patients, 13.5% after linear repair and 3.5% after endoventricular patch plasty. When adjusted for multiconfounders, the risk of early mortality was significantly higher after simple linear repair than after endoventricular patch plasty (odds ratio, 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-17.8). Mean follow-up was 5.8 +/- 3.8 years (range, 0-14.0 years). Overall 5-year cumulative survival was 78%, 70.1% after linear repair and 91.4% after endoventricular patch plasty. The risk of total mortality was significantly higher after linear repair than after endoventricular patch plasty when controlled for multiconfounders (relative risk, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-9.7). Linear repair dominated early in the series and patch plasty dominated later, giving a possible learning-curve bias in favor of patch plasty that could not be adjusted for in the regression analysis. Postinfarction left ventricular aneurysm can be repaired with satisfactory early and late results. Surgical risk was lower and long-term survival was higher after endoventricular patch plasty than simple linear repair. Differences in outcome should be interpreted with care because of the retrospective study design and the chronology of the 2 repair methods.

Drought and the risk of hospital admissions and mortality in older adults in western USA from 2000 to 2013: a retrospective study

PubMed Central

Berman, Jesse D; Ebisu, Keita; Peng, Roger D; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L

2017-01-01

Background Occurrence, severity and geographic extent of droughts are anticipated to increase under climate change, but the health consequences of drought conditions are unknown. We estimate risks of cardiovascular and respiratory-related hospitalization and mortality associated with drought conditions for the western U.S. elderly population. Methods For counties in the western U.S. (N=618) and for the period 2000 to 2013, we use data from the U.S. Drought Monitor to identify: 1) full drought periods; 2) non-drought periods; and 3) worsening drought periods stratified by low- and high-severity. We use Medicare claims to calculate daily rates of cardiovascular admissions, respiratory admissions, and deaths among adults 65 years or older. Using a two-stage hierarchical model, we estimated the percentage change in health risks when comparing drought to non-drought period days controlling for daily weather and seasonal trends. Findings On average there were 2·1 million days and 0·6 million days classified as non-drought periods and drought periods, respectively. Compared to non-drought periods, respiratory admissions significantly decreased by −1·99% (95% posterior interval (PI): −3·56, −0·38) during the full drought period, but not during worsening drought conditions. Mortality risk significantly increased by 1·55% (95% PI: 0·17, 2·95) during the high-severity worsening drought period, but not the full drought period. Cardiovascular admissions did not differ significantly during either drought or worsening drought periods. In counties where drought occurred less frequently, we found risks for cardiovascular disease and mortality to increase during worsening drought conditions. Interpretations Drought conditions increased risk of mortality during high-severity worsening drought, but decreased the risk of respiratory admissions during full drought periods among older adults. Counties that experience fewer drought events show larger risk for mortality and cardiovascular disease. This research describes an understudied environmental association with global health significance. PMID:29057392

Coronary revascularization vs. medical therapy following coronary-computed tomographic angiography in patients with low-, intermediate- and high-risk coronary artery disease: results from the CONFIRM long-term registry

PubMed Central

Schulman-Marcus, Joshua; Lin, Fay Y.; Gransar, Heidi; Berman, Daniel; Callister, Tracy; DeLago, Augustin; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Budoff, Matthew; Kaufmann, Philipp; Achenbach, Stephan; Raff, Gilbert; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Cademartiri, Filippo; Maffei, Erica; Villines, Todd; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Pontone, Gianluca; Andreini, Daniele; Marques, Hugo; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chow, Benjamin J.W.; Cury, Ricardo C.; Dunning, Allison; Shaw, Leslee; Min, James K.

2017-01-01

Abstract Aims To identify the effect of early revascularization on 5-year survival in patients with CAD diagnosed by coronary-computed tomographic angiography (CCTA). Methods and results We examined 5544 stable patients with suspected CAD undergoing CCTA who were followed a median of 5.5 years in a large international registry. Patients were categorized as having low-, intermediate-, or high-risk CAD based on CCTA findings. Two treatment groups were defined: early revascularization within 90 days of CCTA (n = 1171) and medical therapy (n = 4373). To account for the non-randomized referral to revascularization, we developed a propensity score by logistic regression. This score was incorporated into Cox proportional hazard models to calculate the effect of revascularization on all-cause mortality. Death occurred in 363 (6.6%) patients and was more frequent in medical therapy. In multivariable models, when compared with medical therapy, the mortality benefit of revascularization varied significantly over time and by CAD risk (P for interaction 0.04). In high-risk CAD, revascularization was significantly associated with lower mortality at 1 year (hazard ratio [HR] 0.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.11–0.47) and 5 years (HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.18–0.54). For intermediate-risk CAD, revascularization was associated with reduced mortality at 1 year (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.22–0.93) but not 5 years (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.33–1.20). For low-risk CAD, there was no survival benefit at either time point. Conclusions Early revascularization was associated with reduced 1-year mortality in intermediate- and high-risk CAD detected by CCTA, but this association only persisted for 5-year mortality in high-risk CAD. PMID:28329294

Effect of increased leptin and C-reactive protein levels on mortality: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

PubMed

Amrock, Stephen M; Weitzman, Michael

2014-09-01

Leptin and C-reactive protein (CRP) have each been linked to adverse cardiovascular events, and prior cross-sectional research suggests that increased levels of both biomarkers pose an even greater risk. The effect of increased levels of both leptin and CRP on mortality has not, however, been previously assessed. We used data from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) to estimate the mortality effect of high leptin and high CRP levels. Outcomes were compared with the use of inverse-probability-weighting adjustment. Among 6259 participants included in the analysis, 766 were in their sex-specific, population-weighted highest quartiles of both leptin and CRP. Median follow-up time was 14.3 years. There was no significant difference in adjusted all-cause mortality between the groups (risk ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-1.54). Similar results were noted with the use of several different analytic methods and in many subgroups, though high leptin and CRP levels may increase all-cause mortality in males (hazard ratio, 1.80, 95% CI, 1.32-2.46; P for interaction, 0.011). A significant difference in cardiovascular mortality was also noted (risk ratio, 1.54, 95% CI, 1.08-2.18), though that finding was not confirmed in all sensitivity analyses.. In this observational study, no significant difference in overall all-cause mortality rates in those with high leptin and high CRP levels was found, though high leptin and CRP levels appear associated with increased mortality in males. High leptin and CRP levels also likely increase risk for cardiovascular death.. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality: Impact of Impaired Health-Related Functioning and Diabetes

PubMed Central

Williams, Emily D.; Rawal, Lal; Oldenburg, Brian F.; Renwick, Carla; Shaw, Jonathan E.; Tapp, Robyn J.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE There is an established link between health-related functioning (HRF) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and it is known that those with diabetes predominantly die of CVD. However, few studies have determined the combined impact of diabetes and impaired HRF on CVD mortality. We investigated whether this combination carries a higher CVD risk than either component alone. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study included 11,247 adults aged ≥25 years from 42 randomly selected areas of Australia. At baseline (1999–2000), diabetes status was defined using the World Health Organization criteria and HRF was assessed using the SF-36 questionnaire. RESULTS Overall, after 7.4 years of follow-up, 57 persons with diabetes and 105 without diabetes had died from CVD. In individuals with and without diabetes, HRF measures were significant predictors of increased CVD mortality. The CVD mortality risks among those with diabetes or impaired physical health component summary (PCS) alone were similar (diabetes only: hazard ratio 1.4 [95% CI 0.7–2.7]; impaired PCS alone: 1.5 [1.0–2.4]), while those with both diabetes and impaired PCS had a much higher CVD mortality (2.8 [1.6–4.7]) compared with those without diabetes and normal PCS (after adjustment for multiple covariates). Similar results were found for the mental health component summary. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates that the combination of diabetes and impaired HRF is associated with substantially higher CVD mortality. This suggests that, among those with diabetes, impaired HRF is likely to be important in the identification of individuals at increased risk of CVD mortality. PMID:22446177

Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS): A novel severity score to predict mortality among hospitalized patients with Clostridium difficile infection

PubMed Central

Kassam, Zain; Fabersunne, Camila Cribb; Smith, Mark B.; Alm, Eric J.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.

2016-01-01

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. Aims To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS). Methods We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalizations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of mortality. CARDS was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. Results We identified 77,776 hospitalizations, yielding an estimate of 374,747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the United States, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The 8 severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from −1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Conclusion CARDS is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalized with CDI. PMID:26849527

Mortality at older ages and moves in residential and sheltered housing: evidence from the UK

PubMed Central

Robards, James; Evandrou, Maria; Falkingham, Jane; Vlachantoni, Athina

2014-01-01

Background The study examines the relationship between transitions to residential and sheltered housing and mortality. Past research has focused on housing moves over extended time periods and subsequent mortality. In this paper, annual housing transitions allow the identification of the patterning of housing moves, the duration of stay in each sector and the assessment of the relationship of preceding moves to a heightened risk of dying. Methods The study uses longitudinal data constructed from pooled observations from the British Household Panel Survey (waves 1993–2008). Records were pooled for all cases where the survey member is 65 years or over and living in private housing at baseline and observed at three consecutive time points, including baseline (N=23 727). Binary logistic regression (death as outcome three waves after baseline) explored the relative strength of different housing transitions, controlling for sociodemographic predictors. Results (1) Transition to residential housing within the previous 12 months was associated with the highest mortality risk. (2) Results support existing findings showing an interaction between marital status and mortality, whereby unmarried persons were more likely to die. (3) Higher male mortality was observed across all housing transitions. Conclusions An older person's move to residential housing is associated with a higher risk of mortality within 12 months of the move. Survivors living in residential housing for more than a year, show a similar probability of dying to those living in sheltered housing. Results highlight that it is the type of accommodation that affects an older person's mortality risk, and the length of time they spend there. PMID:24638058

Social Cohesion and Mortality: A Survival Analysis of Older Adults in Japan

PubMed Central

Yorifuji, Takashi; Takao, Soshi; Doi, Hiroyuki; Kawachi, Ichiro

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined the association between social cohesion and mortality in a sample of older adults in Japan. Methods. Data were derived from a cohort study of elderly individuals (65–84 years) in Shizuoka Prefecture; 14 001 participants were enrolled at baseline (1999) and followed up in 2002, 2006, and 2009. Among the 11 092 participants for whom we had complete data, 1427 had died during follow-up. We examined the association between social cohesion (assessed at both the community and individual levels) and subsequent mortality after control for baseline and time-varying covariates. We used clustered proportional hazard regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs). Results. After control for individual characteristics, individual perceptions of community cohesion were associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.73, 0.84) as well as mortality from cardiovascular disease (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.67, 0.84), pulmonary disease (HR = 0.66; 95% CI = 0.58, 0.75), and all other causes (HR = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.66, 0.89). However, no statistically significant relationship was found between community cohesion and mortality risk. Conclusions. Among the elderly in Japan, more positive individual perceptions of community cohesion are associated with reduced risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. PMID:24134379

Body Mass Trajectories and Mortality Among Older Adults: A Joint Growth Mixture–Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Zajacova, Anna

2014-01-01

Purpose of the Study: The aim of this study was to investigate heterogeneity in body weight trajectories among older adults and their association with mortality risks. Design and Methods: Information on body mass index (BMI) and survival come from nine waves of the Health and Retirement Study, a 16-year survey of adults aged 51–61 at baseline (N = 9,703). We used a sex-stratified joint growth mixture-discrete time survival model to characterize BMI trajectory groups and their associated mortality. Results: Three distinct classes of BMI trajectories were identified: “stable overweight,” “obese gaining,” and “obese losing.” Relative to the stable overweight class, which comprised about 90% of the sample, the obese gaining class had approximately 50% higher mortality risk; the highest mortality was found in the obese losing category (OR > 2.7, p < .001). The results were similar for men and women. Implications: The findings highlight substantial heterogeneity in weight trajectories of older Americans, as well as large survival differentials across the classes. The direction of weight changes appears inextricably linked to the overall BMI level in terms of predicting older adults’ longevity. Weight loss is associated with particularly high mortality risk even when the typical BMI change is from obesity to overweight. PMID:23355450

Repeatedly measured material and behavioral factors changed the explanation of socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Oude Groeniger, Joost; Kamphuis, Carlijn B; Mackenbach, Johan P; van Lenthe, Frank J

2017-11-01

We examined whether using repeatedly measured material and behavioral factors contributed differently to socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality compared to one baseline measurement. Data from the Dutch prospective GLOBE cohort were linked to mortality register data (1991-2013; N = 4,851). Socioeconomic position was measured at baseline by educational level and occupation. Material factors (financial difficulties, housing tenure, health insurance) and behavioral factors (smoking, leisure time physical activity, sports participation, and body mass index) were self-reported in 1991, 1997, and 2004. Cox proportional hazards regression and bootstrap methods were used to examine the contribution of baseline-only and time-varying risk factors to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Men and women in the lowest educational and occupational groups were at an increased risk of dying compared to the highest groups. The contribution of material factors to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality was smaller when multiple instead of baseline-only measurements were used (25%-65% vs. 49%-93%). The contribution of behavioral factors was larger when multiple measurements were used (39%-51% vs. 19%-40%). Inclusion of time-dependent risk factors contributes to understanding socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, but careful examination of the underlying mechanisms and suitability of the model is required. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonmelanoma skin cancer and risk of all-cause and cancer-related mortality: a systematic review.

PubMed

Barton, Virginia; Armeson, Kent; Hampras, Shalaka; Ferris, Laura K; Visvanathan, Kala; Rollison, Dana; Alberg, Anthony J

2017-05-01

Some reports suggest that a history of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) may be associated with increased mortality. NMSCs have very low fatality rates, but the high prevalence of NMSC elevates the importance of the possibility of associated subsequent mortality from other causes. The variable methods and findings of existing studies leave the significance of these results uncertain. To provide clarity, we conducted a systematic review to characterize the evidence on the associations of NMSC with: (1) all-cause mortality, (2) cancer-specific mortality, and (3) cancer survival. Bibliographic databases were searched through February 2016. Cohort studies published in English were included if adequate data were provided to estimate mortality ratios in patients with-versus-without NMSC. Data were abstracted from the total of eight studies from independent data sources that met inclusion criteria (n = 3 for all-cause mortality, n = 2 for cancer-specific mortality, and n = 5 for cancer survival). For all-cause mortality, a significant increased risk was observed for patients with a history of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (mortality ratio estimates (MR) 1.25 and 1.30), whereas no increased risk was observed for patients with a history of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) (MRs 0.96 and 0.97). Based on one study, the association with cancer-specific mortality was stronger for SCC (MR 2.17) than BCC (MR 1.15). Across multiple types of cancer both SCC and BCC tended to be associated with poorer survival from second primary malignancies. Multiple studies support an association between NMSC and fatal outcomes; the associations tend to be more potent for SCC than BCC. Additional investigation is needed to more precisely characterize these associations and elucidate potential underlying mechanisms.

Area-based socioeconomic status, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular mortality in Scotland

PubMed Central

Jackson, CA; Jones, NRV; Walker, JJ; Fischbacher, CM; Colhoun, HM; Leese, GP; Lindsay, RS; McKnight, JA; Morris, AD; Petrie, JR; Sattar, N; Wild, SH

2014-01-01

Aims To explore the relationships between type 2 diabetes mellitus, area-based socioeconomic status (SES) and cardiovascular disease mortality in Scotland. Methods We used an area-based measure of SES, Scottish national diabetes register data linked to mortality records, and general population cause-specific mortality data to investigate the relationships between SES, type 2 diabetes and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CbVD) mortality, for 2001-2007. We used negative binomial regression to obtain age-adjusted relative risks (RRs) of mortality (by sex), comparing people with type 2 diabetes to the non-diabetic population. Results Among 216,652 people aged 40 years or older with type 2 diabetes (980,687 person-years), there were 10,554 IHD deaths and 4,378 CbVD deaths. Age-standardised mortality increased with increasing deprivation, and was higher among men. IHD mortality RRs were highest among the least deprived quintile and lowest in the most deprived quintile (Men, least deprived: RR 1.94 95% CI 1.61, 2.33; most deprived: RR 1.46 95% CI 1.23, 1.74) and were higher in women than men (Women, least deprived: RR 2.84 95% CI 2.12, 3.80; most deprived: RR 2.04 95% CI 1.55, 2.69). A similar, weaker, pattern was observed for cerebrovascular mortality. Conclusions Absolute risk of cardiovascular mortality is higher in people with diabetes than the non-diabetic population, and increases with increasing deprivation. The relative impact of diabetes on cardiovascular mortality differs by SES and further efforts to reduce cardiovascular risk both in deprived groups and people with diabetes are required. Prevention of diabetes may reduce socioeconomic health inequalities. PMID:22893029

Inferring frail life expectancies in Chicago from daily fluctuations in elderly mortality.

PubMed

Murray, Christian J; Lipfert, Frederick W

2013-07-01

Susceptible sub-populations with existing disease have exhibited stronger relationships between air quality and mortality in time-series studies, but their associated life expectancies have largely been overlooked. Murray and Nelson developed a new time-series model that estimated a small unobserved (frail) sub-population and their resulting life expectancies in Philadelphia, including environment relationships. As a further example in a different geographic area, we used this model with 1987-2000 daily mortality data in Chicago and found a stable frail population at risk of ∼900 persons with a mean life expectancy of ∼11 days; fewer than two daily deaths were associated with air pollution. We considered daily concentrations of CO, NO₂, O₃, PM₁₀ and SO₂, and found PM₁₀ and O₃ to have stronger associations with frail mortality. Our estimates of life expectancy and air pollution and temperature relationships are similar to those found in other studies that used different methods. Temperature was more important than air pollution during the 1995 heat wave, when mortality risks increased dramatically after 2 d exposure and life expectancies decreased to 3-5 d. Modeling this event separately had substantial effects on lagged mortality--air pollution relationships and the population at risk. The premises of the Murray-Nelson model were supported by simultaneously considering an additional subgroup of non-frail individuals; they contributed only ∼1% of total elderly deaths. We conclude that frail life expectancies estimated by the Murray-Nelson model are robust, and that under these conditions non-frail persons have little risk of acute mortality, with or without contributions from air pollution.

Vitamin D and mortality: Individual participant data meta-analysis of standardized 25-hydroxyvitamin D in 26916 individuals from a European consortium

PubMed Central

Gaksch, Martin; Jorde, Rolf; Grimnes, Guri; Joakimsen, Ragnar; Schirmer, Henrik; Wilsgaard, Tom; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.; Njølstad, Inger; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; März, Winfried; Kleber, Marcus E.; Tomaschitz, Andreas; Grübler, Martin; Eiriksdottir, Gudny; Gudmundsson, Elias F.; Harris, Tamara B.; Cotch, Mary F.; Aspelund, Thor; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Rutters, Femke; Beulens, Joline W. J.; van ‘t Riet, Esther; Nijpels, Giel; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Grove-Laugesen, Diana; Rejnmark, Lars; Busch, Markus A.; Mensink, Gert B. M.; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Thamm, Michael; Swart, Karin M. A.; Brouwer, Ingeborg A.; Lips, Paul; van Schoor, Natasja M.; Sempos, Christopher T.; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramón A.; Škrabáková, Zuzana; Dowling, Kirsten G.; Cashman, Kevin D.; Kiely, Mairead; Pilz, Stefan

2017-01-01

Background Vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for mortality but previous meta-analyses lacked standardization of laboratory methods for 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and used aggregate data instead of individual participant data (IPD). We therefore performed an IPD meta-analysis on the association between standardized serum 25(OH)D and mortality. Methods In a European consortium of eight prospective studies, including seven general population cohorts, we used the Vitamin D Standardization Program (VDSP) protocols to standardize 25(OH)D data. Meta-analyses using a one step procedure on IPD were performed to study associations of 25(OH)D with all-cause mortality as the primary outcome, and with cardiovascular and cancer mortality as secondary outcomes. This meta-analysis is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02438488. Findings We analysed 26916 study participants (median age 61.6 years, 58% females) with a median 25(OH)D concentration of 53.8 nmol/L. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 6802 persons died. Compared to participants with 25(OH)D concentrations of 75 to 99.99 nmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence interval) for mortality in the 25(OH)D groups with 40 to 49.99, 30 to 39.99, and <30 nmol/L were 1.15 (1.00–1.29), 1.33 (1.16–1.51), and 1.67 (1.44–1.89), respectively. We observed similar results for cardiovascular mortality, but there was no significant linear association between 25(OH)D and cancer mortality. There was also no significantly increased mortality risk at high 25(OH)D levels up to 125 nmol/L. Interpretation In the first IPD meta-analysis using standardized measurements of 25(OH)D we observed an association between low 25(OH)D and increased risk of all-cause mortality. It is of public health interest to evaluate whether treatment of vitamin D deficiency prevents premature deaths. PMID:28207791

Traditional and Emerging Lifestyle Risk Behaviors and All-Cause Mortality in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: Evidence from a Large Population-Based Australian Cohort

PubMed Central

Ding, Ding; Rogers, Kris; van der Ploeg, Hidde; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Bauman, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Background Lifestyle risk behaviors are responsible for a large proportion of disease burden worldwide. Behavioral risk factors, such as smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity, tend to cluster within populations and may have synergistic effects on health. As evidence continues to accumulate on emerging lifestyle risk factors, such as prolonged sitting and unhealthy sleep patterns, incorporating these new risk factors will provide clinically relevant information on combinations of lifestyle risk factors. Methods and Findings Using data from a large Australian cohort of middle-aged and older adults, this is the first study to our knowledge to examine a lifestyle risk index incorporating sedentary behavior and sleep in relation to all-cause mortality. Baseline data (February 2006– April 2009) were linked to mortality registration data until June 15, 2014. Smoking, high alcohol intake, poor diet, physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and unhealthy (short/long) sleep duration were measured by questionnaires and summed into an index score. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used with the index score and each unique risk combination as exposure variables, adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics. During 6 y of follow-up of 231,048 participants for 1,409,591 person-years, 15,635 deaths were registered. Of all participants, 31.2%, 36.9%, 21.4%, and 10.6% reported 0, 1, 2, and 3+ risk factors, respectively. There was a strong relationship between the lifestyle risk index score and all-cause mortality. The index score had good predictive validity (c index = 0.763), and the partial population attributable risk was 31.3%. Out of all 96 possible risk combinations, the 30 most commonly occurring combinations accounted for more than 90% of the participants. Among those, combinations involving physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and/or long sleep duration and combinations involving smoking and high alcohol intake had the strongest associations with all-cause mortality. Limitations of the study include self-reported and under-specified measures, dichotomized risk scores, lack of long-term patterns of lifestyle behaviors, and lack of cause-specific mortality data. Conclusions Adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviors could reduce the risk for death from all causes. Specific combinations of lifestyle risk behaviors may be more harmful than others, suggesting synergistic relationships among risk factors. PMID:26645683

Non-linear feature extraction from HRV signal for mortality prediction of ICU cardiovascular patient.

PubMed

Karimi Moridani, Mohammad; Setarehdan, Seyed Kamaledin; Motie Nasrabadi, Ali; Hajinasrollah, Esmaeil

2016-01-01

Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are at risk of in-ICU morbidities and mortality, making specific systems for identifying at-risk patients a necessity for improving clinical care. This study presents a new method for predicting in-hospital mortality using heart rate variability (HRV) collected from the times of a patient's ICU stay. In this paper, a HRV time series processing based method is proposed for mortality prediction of ICU cardiovascular patients. HRV signals were obtained measuring R-R time intervals. A novel method, named return map, is then developed that reveals useful information from the HRV time series. This study also proposed several features that can be extracted from the return map, including the angle between two vectors, the area of triangles formed by successive points, shortest distance to 45° line and their various combinations. Finally, a thresholding technique is proposed to extract the risk period and to predict mortality. The data used to evaluate the proposed algorithm obtained from 80 cardiovascular ICU patients, from the first 48 h of the first ICU stay of 40 males and 40 females. This study showed that the angle feature has on average a sensitivity of 87.5% (with 12 false alarms), the area feature has on average a sensitivity of 89.58% (with 10 false alarms), the shortest distance feature has on average a sensitivity of 85.42% (with 14 false alarms) and, finally, the combined feature has on average a sensitivity of 92.71% (with seven false alarms). The results showed that the last half an hour before the patient's death is very informative for diagnosing the patient's condition and to save his/her life. These results confirm that it is possible to predict mortality based on the features introduced in this paper, relying on the variations of the HRV dynamic characteristics.

Small-area spatiotemporal analysis of heatwave impacts on elderly mortality in Paris: A cluster analysis approach.

PubMed

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Kihal-Talantikite, Wahida; Ragettli, Martina S; Deguen, Séverine

2017-08-15

Heat-waves have a substantial public health burden. Understanding spatial heterogeneity at a fine spatial scale in relation to heat and related mortality is central to target interventions towards vulnerable communities. To determine the spatial variability of heat-wave-related mortality risk among elderly in Paris, France at the census block level. We also aimed to assess area-level social and environmental determinants of high mortality risk within Paris. We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009 among people aged >65 at the French census block level within Paris. We used two heat wave days' definitions that were compared to non-heat wave days. A Bernoulli cluster analysis method was applied to identify high risk clusters of mortality during heat waves. We performed random effects meta-regression analyses to investigate factors associated with the magnitude of the mortality risk. The spatial approach revealed a spatial aggregation of death cases during heat wave days. We found that small scale chronic PM 10 exposure was associated with a 0.02 (95% CI: 0.001; 0.045) increase of the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We also found a positive association with the percentage of foreigners and the percentage of labor force, while the proportion of elderly people living in the neighborhood was negatively associated. We also found that green space density had a protective effect and inversely that the density of constructed feature increased the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We showed that a spatial variation in terms of heat-related vulnerability exists within Paris and that it can be explained by some contextual factors. This study can be useful for designing interventions targeting more vulnerable areas and reduce the burden of heat waves. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variations in mortality rates among Canadian neonatal intensive care units

PubMed Central

Sankaran, Koravangattu; Chien, Li-Yin; Walker, Robin; Seshia, Mary; Ohlsson, Arne; Lee, Shoo K.

2002-01-01

Background Most previous reports of variations in mortality rates for infants admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) have involved small groups of subpopulations, such as infants with very low birth weight. Our aim was to examine the incidence and causes of death and the risk-adjusted variation in mortality rates for a large group of infants of all birth weights admitted to Canadian NICUs. Methods We examined the deaths that occurred among all 19 265 infants admitted to 17 tertiary-level Canadian NICUs from January 1996 to October 1997. We used multivariate analysis to examine the risk factors associated with death and the variations in mortality rates, adjusting for risks in the baseline population, severity of illness on admission and whether the infant was outborn (born at a different hospital from the one where the NICU was located). Results The overall mortality rate was 4% (795 infants died). Forty percent of the deaths (n = 318) occurred within 2 days of NICU admission, 50% (n = 397) within 3 days and 75% (n = 596) within 12 days. The major conditions associated with death were gestational age less than 24 weeks (59 deaths [7%]), gestational age 24–28 weeks (325 deaths [41%]), outborn status (340 deaths [42%]), congenital anomalies (270 deaths [34%]), surgery (141 deaths [18%]), infection (108 deaths [14%]), hypoxic–ischemic encephalopathy (128 deaths [16%]) and small for gestational age (i.e., less than the third percentile) (77 deaths [10%]). There was significant variation in the risk-adjusted mortality rates (range 1.6% to 5.5%) among the 17 NICUs. Interpretation Most NICU deaths occurred within the first few days after admission. Preterm birth, outborn status and congenital anomalies were the conditions most frequently associated with death in the NICU. The significant variation in risk-adjusted mortality rates emphasizes the importance of risk adjustment for valid comparison of NICU outcomes. PMID:11826939

Mediterranean diet and Alzheimer disease mortality

PubMed Central

Scarmeas, Nikolaos; Luchsinger, Jose A.; Mayeux, Richard; Stern, Yaakov

2009-01-01

Background We previously reported that the Mediterranean diet (MeDi) is related to lower risk for Alzheimer disease (AD). Whether MeDi is associated with subsequent AD course and outcomes has not been investigated. Objectives To examine the association between MeDi and mortality in patients with AD. Methods A total of 192 community-based individuals in New York who were diagnosed with AD were prospectively followed every 1.5 years. Adherence to the MeDi (0- to 9-point scale with higher scores indicating higher adherence) was the main predictor of mortality in Cox models that were adjusted for period of recruitment, age, gender, ethnicity, education, APOE genotype, caloric intake, smoking, and body mass index. Results Eighty-five patients with AD (44%) died during the course of 4.4 (±3.6, 0.2 to 13.6) years of follow-up. In unadjusted models, higher adherence to MeDi was associated with lower mortality risk (for each additional MeDi point hazard ratio 0.79; 95% CI 0.69 to 0.91; p = 0.001). This result remained significant after controlling for all covariates (0.76; 0.65 to 0.89; p = 0.001). In adjusted models, as compared with AD patients at the lowest MeDi adherence fertile, those at the middle fertile had lower mortality risk (0.65; 0.38 to 1.09; 1.33 years’ longer survival), whereas subjects at the highest fertile had an even lower risk (0.27; 0.10 to 0.69; 3.91 years’ longer survival; p for trend = 0.003). Conclusion Adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MeDi) may affect not only risk for Alzheimer disease (AD) but also subsequent disease course: Higher adherence to the MeDi is associated with lower mortality in AD. The gradual reduction in mortality risk for higher MeDi adherence tertiles suggests a possible dose–response effect. PMID:17846408

Study of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma mortality associated with industrial pollution in Spain, using Poisson models

PubMed Central

Ramis, Rebeca; Vidal, Enrique; García-Pérez, Javier; Lope, Virginia; Aragonés, Nuria; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Pollán, Marina; López-Abente, Gonzalo

2009-01-01

Background Non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHLs) have been linked to proximity to industrial areas, but evidence regarding the health risk posed by residence near pollutant industries is very limited. The European Pollutant Emission Register (EPER) is a public register that furnishes valuable information on industries that release pollutants to air and water, along with their geographical location. This study sought to explore the relationship between NHL mortality in small areas in Spain and environmental exposure to pollutant emissions from EPER-registered industries, using three Poisson-regression-based mathematical models. Methods Observed cases were drawn from mortality registries in Spain for the period 1994–2003. Industries were grouped into the following sectors: energy; metal; mineral; organic chemicals; waste; paper; food; and use of solvents. Populations having an industry within a radius of 1, 1.5, or 2 kilometres from the municipal centroid were deemed to be exposed. Municipalities outside those radii were considered as reference populations. The relative risks (RRs) associated with proximity to pollutant industries were estimated using the following methods: Poisson Regression; mixed Poisson model with random provincial effect; and spatial autoregressive modelling (BYM model). Results Only proximity of paper industries to population centres (>2 km) could be associated with a greater risk of NHL mortality (mixed model: RR:1.24, 95% CI:1.09–1.42; BYM model: RR:1.21, 95% CI:1.01–1.45; Poisson model: RR:1.16, 95% CI:1.06–1.27). Spatial models yielded higher estimates. Conclusion The reported association between exposure to air pollution from the paper, pulp and board industry and NHL mortality is independent of the model used. Inclusion of spatial random effects terms in the risk estimate improves the study of associations between environmental exposures and mortality. The EPER could be of great utility when studying the effects of industrial pollution on the health of the population. PMID:19159450

[Relationship between hyperuricemia and prognosis in patients with heart failure of coronary heart disease after revascularization].

PubMed

Peng, D; Wang, S P; Zhao, D H; Fan, Q C; Shu, J; Liu, J H

2018-05-08

Objective: To explore the effect of hyperuricemia on prognosis in patients with heart failure of coronary heart disease (CHD) after revascularization. Methods: A single-center retrospective study of all subjects who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) as revascularization for CHD at Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, between January 2005 and December 2014 was performed.Patients were divided into two groups by with or without hyperuricemia.The average follow-up was 1 818 d. Results: The Logistic regression analysis revealed that hyperuricemia was independent risk factors of readmission of heart failure( P =0.018, OR =1.499, 95% CI 1.071-2.098). The Cox regression analysis revealed that hyperuricemia was independent risk factor of all-cause mortality( P =0.002, RR =1.520, 95% CI 1.166-1.982), cardiovascular ( CV ) mortality( P =0.001, RR =1.811, 95% CI 1.279-2.566), heart failure mortality( P =0.006, RR =2.151, 95% CI 1.247-3.711). Conclusions: There is negative correlation between level of uric acid and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). The patients with heart failure of coronary heart disease complicated with hyperuricemia have high risk of readmission of heart failure, all-cause mortality, CV mortality andheart failure mortality than patients with normal uric acid level. Hyperuricemia is an independent risk factor for patients with heart failure of coronary heart disease after revascularization.

Do the psychosocial risks associated with television viewing increase mortality? Evidence from the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index Dataset

PubMed Central

Rosen, Zohn; Johnson, Gretchen

2013-01-01

Background Television viewing is associated with an increased risk of mortality, which could be caused by a sedentary lifestyle, the content of television programming (e.g., cigarette product placement or stress-inducing content), or both. Methods We examined the relationship between self-reported hours of television viewing and mortality risk over 30 years in a representative sample of the American adult population using the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index dataset. We also explored the intervening variable effect of various emotional states (e.g., happiness) and beliefs (e.g., trust in government) of the relationship between television viewing and mortality. Results We find that for each additional hour of viewing, mortality risks increased 4%. Given the mean duration of television viewing in our sample, this amounted to about 1.2 years of life expectancy in the US. This association was tempered by a number of potential psychosocial mediators, including self-reported measures of happiness, social capital, or confidence in institutions. While none of these were clinically significant, the combined mediation power was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Conclusions Television viewing among healthy adults is correlated with premature mortality in a nationally-representative sample of US adults, and this association may be partially mediated by programming content related to beliefs or affective states. However, this mediation effect is the result of many small changes in psychosocial states rather than large effects from a few factors. PMID:23683712

Poor Decision Making is Associated with an Increased Risk of Mortality Among Community-Dwelling Older Persons without Dementia

PubMed Central

Boyle, Patricia A.; Wilson, Robert S.; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S.; Bennett, David A.

2013-01-01

Background Decision making is thought to be an important determinant of health and well-being across the lifespan, but little is known about the association of decision making with mortality. Methods Participants were 675 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Baseline assessments of decision making were used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 4 years of follow-up. Results The mean score on the decision making measure at baseline was 7.1 (SD=2.9, range: 0-12), with lower scores indicating poorer decision making. During up to 4 years of follow-up (mean=1.7 years), 40 (6% of 675) persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, and education, the risk of mortality increased by about 20% for each additional decision making error (HR=1.19, 95% CI 1.07, 1.32, p=0.002). Thus, a person who performed poorly on the measure of decision making (score=3, 10th percentile) was about four times more likely to die compared to a person who performed well (score=11, 90th percentile). Further, the association of decision making with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of cognitive function. Conclusion Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age even after accounting for cognitive function. PMID:23364306

Cadmium and lung cancer mortality accounting for simultaneous arsenic exposure

PubMed Central

Park, Robert M; Stayner, Leslie T; Petersen, Martin R; Finley-Couch, Melissa; Hornung, Richard; Rice, Carol

2015-01-01

Objectives Prior investigations identified an association between airborne cadmium and lung cancer but questions remain regarding confounding by arsenic, a well-established lung carcinogen. Methods A cadmium smelter population exhibiting excess lung cancer was re-analysed using a retrospective exposure assessment for arsenic (As), updated mortality (1940–2002), a revised cadmium (Cd) exposure matrix and improved work history information. Results Cumulative exposure metrics for both cadmium and arsenic were strongly associated making estimation of their independent effects difficult. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were modelled with Poisson regression with the contribution of arsenic to lung cancer risk constrained by exposure–response estimates previously reported. The results demonstrate (1) a statistically significant effect of Cd independent of As (SMR=3.2 for 10 mg-year/m3 Cd, p=0.012), (2) a substantial healthy worker effect for lung cancer (for unexposed workers, SMR=0.69) and (3) a large deficit in lung cancer mortality among Hispanic workers (SMR=0.27, p=0.009), known to have low lung cancer rates. A supralinear dose-rate effect was observed (contribution to risk with increasing exposure intensity has declining positive slope). Lung cancer mortality was somewhat better predicted using a cadmium burden metric with a half-life of about 20–25 years. Conclusions These findings support an independent effect for cadmium in risk of lung cancer mortality. 1/1000 excess lifetime risk of lung cancer death is predicted from an airborne exposure of about 2.4 μg/m3 Cd. PMID:22271639

Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality of Perforated Peptic Ulcer: Retrospective Cohort Study of Risk Factors among Black Africans in Côte d'Ivoire.

PubMed

Gona, Soro Kountele; Alassan, Mahassadi Kouamé; Marcellin, Koffi Gnangoran; Henriette, Kissi Ya; Adama, Coulibaly; Toussaint, Assohoun; Manuela, Ehua Adjoba; Sylvain, Seu Gagon; Anthony, Afum-Adjei Awuah; Francis, Ehua Somian

2016-01-01

Introduction. Surgical treatment of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is a challenge for surgeons in Africa. Aim. To determine risk factors of postoperative complications or mortality among black Ivoirian patients with PPU. Methods. All 161 patients (median age = 34 years, 90.7 male) operated on for PPU in the visceral and general surgery unit were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study. Variables were studied with Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazard models. Results. Among 161 patients operated on for PPU, 36 (27.5%) experienced complications and 31 (19.3%) died. Follow-up results were the incidence of complications and mortality of 6.4 (95% CI: 4.9-8.0) per 100 person-days and 3.0 (95% CI: 1.9-4.0) per 100 person-days for incidence of mortality. In multivariate analysis, risk factors of postoperative complications or mortality were comorbidities (HR = 2.1, P = 0.03), tachycardia (pulse rate > 100/minutes) (HR = 2.4, P = 0.02), purulent intra-abdominal fluid collection (HR = 2.1, P = 0.04), hyponatremia (median value ≤ 134 mEq/L) (HR = 2.3, P = 0.01), delayed time of hospital admission > 72 hours (HR = 2.6, P < 0.0001), and delayed time of surgical intervention between 24 and 48 hours (HR = 3.8, P < 0.0001). Conclusion. The delayed hospital admission or surgical intervention and hyponatremia may be considered as additional risk of postoperative complications or mortality in Black African patients with PPU.

Cardiovascular Comorbidity and Mortality in Men With Prostate Cancer Treated With Brachytherapy-Based Radiation With or Without Hormonal Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nanda, Akash, E-mail: akash.nanda@orlandohealth.com; Chen, Ming-Hui; Moran, Brian J.

Purpose: To assess the impact of coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors and sequelae on the risk of all-cause mortality (ACM) in men treated for prostate cancer (PC). Methods and Materials: The study cohort comprised 5077 men with PC consecutively treated with curative intent between 1997 and 2006 at the Chicago Prostate Cancer Center. Cox and Fine and Gray's competing risks regression multivariable analyses were performed, assessing whether cardiovascular comorbidity impacted the risk of ACM and PC-specific mortality, respectively, adjusting for CAD risk factors (diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, or hypertension) and sequelae (congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction), age, year andmore » type of treatment, and known PC prognostic factors. Results: When compared with men with no comorbidity there was a significantly increased risk of ACM in men with congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.96, P<.001) and in men with diabetes mellitus (AHR 1.60, P=.03) and hypertension (AHR 1.25, P=.04). In contrast, men with hypercholesterolemia had a similar risk of ACM (AHR 0.68, P=.17) when compared with men with no comorbidity. Other factors associated with a significantly increased risk of ACM included age (AHR 1.09, P<.001), prostate-specific antigen level (AHR 1.25, P=.008), and Gleason score 8-10 disease (AHR 1.71, P=.003). Cardiovascular comorbidity did not impact the risk of PC-specific mortality. Conclusions: In addition to age and unfavorable PC prognostic factors, select CAD risk factors and sequelae are associated with an increased risk of ACM in men treated for PC. These comorbidity prognostic factors predict time courses of mortality from competing causes, which may be factored into the decision-making process when considering management options for PC in a given individual.« less

High maternal mortality in Jigawa State, Northern Nigeria estimated using the sisterhood method.

PubMed

Sharma, Vandana; Brown, Willa; Kainuwa, Muhammad Abdullahi; Leight, Jessica; Nyqvist, Martina Bjorkman

2017-06-02

Maternal mortality is extremely high in Nigeria. Accurate estimation of maternal mortality is challenging in low-income settings such as Nigeria where vital registration is incomplete. The objective of this study was to estimate the lifetime risk (LTR) of maternal death and the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in Jigawa State, Northern Nigeria using the Sisterhood Method. Interviews with 7,069 women aged 15-49 in 96 randomly selected clusters of communities in 24 Local Government Areas (LGAs) across Jigawa state were conducted. A retrospective cohort of their sisters of reproductive age was constructed to calculate the lifetime risk of maternal mortality. Using most recent estimates of total fertility for the state, the MMR was estimated. The 7,069 respondents reported 10,957 sisters who reached reproductive age. Of the 1,026 deaths in these sisters, 300 (29.2%) occurred during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days after delivery. This corresponds to a LTR of 6.6% and an estimated MMR for the study areas of 1,012 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI: 898-1,126) with a time reference of 2001. Jigawa State has an extremely high maternal mortality ratio underscoring the urgent need for health systems improvement and interventions to accelerate reductions in MMR. The trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT01487707 ). Initially registered on December 6, 2011.

On forecasting mortality.

PubMed

Olshansky, S J

1988-01-01

Official forecasts of mortality made by the U.S. Office of the Actuary throughout this century have consistently underestimated observed mortality declines. This is due, in part, to their reliance on the static extrapolation of past trends, an atheoretical statistical method that pays scant attention to the behavioral, medical, and social factors contributing to mortality change. A "multiple cause-delay model" more realistically portrays the effects on mortality of the presence of more favorable risk factors at the population level. Such revised assumptions produce large increases in forecasts of the size of the elderly population, and have a dramatic impact on related estimates of population morbidity, disability, and health care costs.

Mortality predictors in a 60-year follow-up of adolescent males: exploring delinquency, socioeconomic status, IQ, high-school drop-out status, and personality.

PubMed

Trumbetta, Susan L; Seltzer, Benjamin K; Gottesman, Irving I; McIntyre, Kathleen M

2010-01-01

To examine whether socioeconomic status (SES), high school (HS) completion, IQ, and personality traits that predict delinquency in adolescence also could explain men's delinquency-related (Dq-r) mortality risk across the life span. Through a 60-year Social Security Death Index (SSDI) follow-up of 1812 men from Hathaway's adolescent normative Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) sample, we examined mortality risk at various ages and at various levels of prior delinquency severity. We examined SES (using family rent level), HS completion, IQ, and MMPI indicators simultaneously as mortality predictors and tested for SES (rent level) interactions with IQ and personality. We ascertained 418 decedents. Dq-r mortality peaked between ages 45 years to 64 years and continued through age 75 years, with high delinquency severity showing earlier and higher mortality risk. IQ and rent level failed to explain Dq-r mortality. HS completion robustly conferred mortality protection through ages 55 years and 75 years, explained IQ and rent level-related risk, but did not fully explain Dq-r risk. Dq-r MMPI scales, Psychopathic Deviate, and Social Introversion, respectively, predicted risk for and protection from mortality by age 75 years, explaining mortality risk otherwise attributable to delinquency. Wiggins' scales also explained Dq-r mortality risk, as Authority Conflict conferred risk for and Social Maladjustment and Hypomania conferred protection from mortality by age 75 years. HS completion robustly predicts mortality by ages 55 years and 75 years. Dq-r personality traits predict mortality by age 75 years, accounting, in part, for Dq-r mortality.

Association of Coexisting Diabetes and Depression With Mortality After Myocardial Infarction

PubMed Central

Bot, Mariska; Pouwer, François; Zuidersma, Marij; van Melle, Joost P.; de Jonge, Peter

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE Diabetes and depression are both linked to an increased mortality risk after myocardial infarction (MI). Population-based studies suggest that having both diabetes and depression results in an increased mortality risk, beyond that of having diabetes or depression alone. The purpose of this study was to examine the joint association of diabetes and depression with mortality in MI patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data were derived from two multicenter cohort studies in the Netherlands, comprising 2,704 patients who were hospitalized for MI. Depression, defined as a Beck Depression Inventory score ≥10, and diabetes were assessed during hospitalization. Mortality data were retrieved for 2,525 patients (93%). RESULTS During an average follow-up of 6.2 years, 439 patients died. The mortality rate was 14% (226 of 1,673) in patients without diabetes and depression, 23% (49 of 210) in patients with diabetes only, 22% (118 of 544) in patients with depression only, and 47% (46 of 98) in patients with both diabetes and depression. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, hypertension, left ventricular ejection fraction, prior MI, and Killip class, hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.38 (95% CI 1.00–1.90) for patients with diabetes only, 1.39 (1.10–1.76) for patients with depression only, and as much as 2.90 (2.07–4.07) for patients with both diabetes and depression. CONCLUSIONS We observed an increased mortality risk in post-MI patients with both diabetes and depression, beyond the association with mortality of diabetes and depression alone. PMID:22301118

Long-term mortality among older adults with burn injury: a population-based study in Australia

PubMed Central

Boyd, James H; Rea, Suzanne; Randall, Sean M; Wood, Fiona M

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess if burn injury in older adults is associated with changes in long-term all-cause mortality and to estimate the increased risk of death attributable to burn injury. Methods We conducted a population-based matched longitudinal study – based on administrative data from Western Australia’s hospital morbidity data system and death register. A cohort of 6014 individuals who were aged at least 45 years when hospitalized for a first burn injury in 1980–2012 was identified. A non-injury comparison cohort, randomly selected from Western Australia’s electoral roll (n = 25 759), was matched to the patients. We used Kaplan–Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards regression to analyse the data and generated mortality rate ratios and attributable risk percentages. Findings For those hospitalized with burns, 180 (3%) died in hospital and 2498 (42%) died after discharge. Individuals with burn injury had a 1.4-fold greater mortality rate than those with no injury (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.3–1.5). In this cohort, the long-term mortality attributable to burn injury was 29%. Mortality risk was increased by both severe and minor burns, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1–1.9) and 2.1 (95% CI: 1.9–2.3), respectively. Conclusion Burn injury is associated with increased long-term mortality. In our study population, sole reliance on data on in-hospital deaths would lead to an underestimate of the true mortality burden associated with burn injury. PMID:26240461

Retrospective analysis of trends and production factors associated with sow mortality on swine-breeding farms in USA.

PubMed

Koketsu, Y

2000-09-01

Of the 825 pig farms in USA that mailed in their electronic file containing production records, 604 farms were used to observe breeding-female mortality risk and related factors (herd size, lactation length, parity and season). Multiple regression was used to determine factors associated with annual mortality risk. Analyses of variance were used for comparisons of mortality risks among parity and season groups. Average annual mortality risks during the 1997 period was 5.68%. Average breeding-female inventories and average lactation length on USA farms were 733 and 18.3 days, respectively. Higher annual breeding-female mortality risk was associated with larger herd size, greater parity at farrowing and shorter lactation length (P<0.02). For example, as herd size increases by 500 females, mortality risk increases by 0.44%. Older parity was associated with higher mortality risks. Summer season was also associated with higher mortality risk. Using five-years' records on 270 farms, annual mortality risk in 1997 was higher than those of 1993 and 1994, while average breeding-female inventory increased and lactation length decreased. It is recommended that producers, especially in large herds, pay more attention to breeding females.

Unintentional Child and Adolescent Drowning Mortality from 2000 to 2013 in 21 Countries: Analysis of the WHO Mortality Database.

PubMed

Wu, Yue; Huang, Yun; Schwebel, David C; Hu, Guoqing

2017-08-04

Limited research considers change over time for drowning mortality among individuals under 20 years of age, or the sub-cause (method) of those drownings. We assessed changes in under-20 drowning mortality from 2000 to 2013 among 21 countries. Age-standardized drowning mortality data were obtained through the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database. Twenty of the 21 included countries experienced a reduction in under-20 drowning mortality rate between 2000 and 2013, with decreases ranging from -80 to -13%. Detailed analysis by drowning method presented large variations in the cause of drowning across countries. Data were missing due to unspecified methods in some countries but, when known, drowning in natural bodies of water was the primary cause of child and adolescent drowning in Poland (56-92%), Cuba (53-81%), Venezuela (43-56%), and Japan (39-60%), while drowning in swimming pools and bathtubs was common in the United States (26-37%) and Japan (28-39%), respectively. We recommend efforts to raise the quality of drowning death reporting systems and discuss prevention strategies that may reduce child and adolescent drowning risk, both in individual countries and globally.

Comparing the association of GFR estimated by the CKD-EPI and MDRD study equations and mortality: the third national health and nutrition examination survey (NHANES III)

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation for estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFRCKD-EPI) improves GFR estimation compared with the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation (eGFRMDRD) but its association with mortality in a nationally representative population sample in the US has not been studied. Methods We examined the association between eGFR and mortality among 16,010 participants of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Primary predictors were eGFRCKD-EPI and eGFRMDRD. Outcomes of interest were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Improvement in risk categorization with eGFRCKD-EPI was evaluated using adjusted relative hazard (HR) and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Results Overall, 26.9% of the population was reclassified to higher eGFR categories and 2.2% to lower eGFR categories by eGFRCKD-EPI, reducing the proportion of prevalent CKD classified as stage 3–5 from 45.6% to 28.8%. There were 3,620 deaths (1,540 from CVD) during 215,082 person-years of follow-up (median, 14.3 years). Among those with eGFRMDRD 30–59 ml/min/1.73 m2, 19.4% were reclassified to eGFRCKD-EPI 60–89 ml/min/1.73 m2 and these individuals had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.34-0.84) and CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.96) compared with those not reclassified. Among those with eGFRMDRD >60 ml/min/1.73 m2, 0.5% were reclassified to lower eGFRCKD-EPI and these individuals had a higher risk of all-cause (adjusted HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69) and CVD (adjusted HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.01-1.99) mortality compared with those not reclassified. Risk prediction improved with eGFRCKD-EPI; NRI was 0.21 for all-cause mortality (p < 0.001) and 0.22 for CVD mortality (p < 0.001). Conclusions eGFRCKD-EPI categories improve mortality risk stratification of individuals in the US population. If eGFRCKD-EPI replaces eGFRMDRD in the US, it will likely improve risk stratification. PMID:22702805

Effect of conjugal bereavement on mortality of the bereaved spouse in participants of the Renfrew/Paisley Study

PubMed Central

Hart, Carole L; Hole, David J; Lawlor, Debbie A; Smith, George Davey; Lever, Tony F

2007-01-01

Objectives To investigate how loss of a spouse affects mortality risk in the bereaved partner. Design and setting Prospective cohort study in Renfrew and Paisley in Scotland. Participants 4395 married couples aged 45–64 years when the study was carried out between 1972 and 1976. Methods The date of bereavement for the bereaved spouse was the date of death of his or her spouse. Bereavement could occur at any time during the follow‐up period, so it was considered as a time‐dependent exposure variable and the Cox proportional hazards model for time‐dependent variables was used. The relative rate (RR) of mortality was calculated for bereaved versus non‐bereaved spouses and adjusted for confounding variables. Main outcome measures Causes of death to 31 March 2004. Results Bereaved participants were at higher risk than non‐bereaved participants of dying from any cause (RR 1.27; 95% CI 1.2 to 1.35). These risks remained but were attenuated after adjustment for confounding variables. There were raised RRs for bereaved participants dying of cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, all cancer, lung cancer, smoking‐related cancer, and accidents or violence. After adjustment for confounding variables, RRs remained higher for bereaved participants for all these causes except for mortality from lung cancer. There was no strong statistical evidence that the increased risks of death associated with bereavement changed with time after bereavement. Conclusions Conjugal bereavement, in addition to existing risk factors, is related to mortality risk for major causes of death. PMID:17435215

Blood Transfusion and Increased Perioperative Risk in Coronary Artery Bypass Grafts

PubMed Central

Campos, Igor C.; Tanganelli, Valessa; Maues, Hugo P.; Coelho, Marcio C. M.; Martins, Fernanda A.; Munhoz, Giovana; Egito, Julyana G. T.; Souza, Hayala C. C.; Giannini, Cássio M. C.; Farsky, Pedro S.

2017-01-01

Objective To correlate blood transfusions and clinical outcomes during hospitalization in coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). Methods Transfusion, clinical and hematological data were collected for 1,378 patients undergoing isolated or combined CABG between January 2011 and December 2012. The effect of blood transfusions was evaluated through multivariate analysis to predict three co-primary outcomes: composite ischemic events, composite infectious complications and hospital mortality. Because higher risk patients receive more transfusions, the hospital mortality outcome was also tested on a stratum of low-risk patients to isolate the effect of preoperative risk on the results. Results The transfusion rate was 63.9%. The use of blood products was associated with a higher incidence of the three coprimary outcomes: composite infectious complications (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.70 to 4.19; P<0.001), composite ischemic events (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.70 to 3.46; P<0.001) and hospital mortality (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.53 to 6.13; P<0.001). When only patients with logistic EuroSCORE ≤ 2% were evaluated, i.e., low-risk individuals, the mortality rate and the incidence of ischemic events and infectious complications composites remained higher among the transfused patients [6% vs. 0.4% (P<0.001), 11.7% vs. 24,3% (P<0.001) and 6.5% vs. 12.7% (P=0.002), respectively]. Conclusion The use of blood components in patients undergoing CABG was associated with ischemic events, infectious complications and hospital mortality, even in low-risk patients. PMID:29211220

Predictive values of D-dimer assay, GRACE scores and TIMI scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Satilmisoglu, Muhammet Hulusi; Ozyilmaz, Sinem Ozbay; Gul, Mehmet; Ak Yildirim, Hayriye; Kayapinar, Osman; Gokturk, Kadir; Aksu, Huseyin; Erkanli, Korhan; Eksik, Abdurrahman

2017-01-01

Purpose To determine the predictive values of D-dimer assay, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for adverse outcome in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Patients and methods A total of 234 patients (mean age: 57.2±11.7 years, 75.2% were males) hospitalized with NSTEMI were included. Data on D-dimer assay, GRACE and TIMI risk scores were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the risk factors predicting increased mortality. Results Median D-dimer levels were 349.5 (48.0–7,210.0) ng/mL, the average TIMI score was 3.2±1.2 and the GRACE score was 90.4±27.6 with high GRACE scores (>118) in 17.5% of patients. The GRACE score was correlated positively with both the D-dimer assay (r=0.215, P=0.01) and TIMI scores (r=0.504, P=0.000). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that higher creatinine levels (odds ratio =18.465, 95% confidence interval: 1.059–322.084, P=0.046) constituted the only significant predictor of increased mortality risk with no predictive values for age, D-dimer assay, ejection fraction, glucose, hemoglobin A1c, sodium, albumin or total cholesterol levels for mortality. Conclusion Serum creatinine levels constituted the sole independent determinant of mortality risk, with no significant values for D-dimer assay, GRACE or TIMI scores for predicting the risk of mortality in NSTEMI patients. PMID:28408834

The striking geographical pattern of gastric cancer mortality in Spain: environmental hypotheses revisited

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Gastric cancer is decreasing in most countries. While socioeconomic development is the main factor to which this decline has been attributed, enormous differences among countries and within regions are still observed, with the main contributing factors remaining elusive. This study describes the geographic distribution of gastric cancer mortality at a municipal level in Spain, from 1994-2003. Methods Smoothed relative risks of stomach cancer mortality were obtained, using the Besag-York-Molliè autoregressive spatial model. Maps depicting relative risk (RR) estimates and posterior probabilities of RR being greater than 1 were plotted. Results From 1994-2003, 62184 gastric cancer deaths were registered in Spain (7 percent of all deaths due to malignant tumors). The geographic pattern was similar for both sexes. RRs displayed a south-north and coast-inland gradient, with lower risks being observed in Andalusia, the Mediterranean coastline, the Balearic and Canary Islands and the Cantabrian seaboard. The highest risk was concentrated along the west coast of Galicia, broad areas of the Castile & Leon Autonomous community, the province of Cáceres in Extremadura, Lleida and other areas of Catalonia. Conclusion In Spain, risk of gastric cancer mortality displays a striking geographic distribution. With some differences, this persistent and unique pattern is similar across the sexes, suggesting the implication of environmental exposures from sources, such as diet or ground water, which could affect both sexes and delimited geographic areas. Also, the higher sex-ratios found in some areas with high risk of smoking-related cancer mortality in males support the role of tobacco in gastric cancer etiology. PMID:19737377

Stress, stress reduction and hypercholesterolemia in African Americans: a review.

PubMed

Calderon, R; Schneider, R H; Alexander, C N; Myers, H F; Nidich, S I; Haney, C

1999-01-01

Psychological stress may directly contribute to the disproportionately high rates of coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality and its etiologic risk factors in African Americans. Specifically, acute and chronic stress have been shown to raise serum lipids and are associated with clinical coronary events. The mechanisms by which stress contributes to alterations in lipid levels are not fully known, but various pathways (ie, hormonal, dietary, etc) have been implicated. Traditional methods for reducing blood serum lipids include diet, drugs or both. These methods have been criticized because of issues of compliance, side effects, and cost. Because of these limitations, nondrug behavioral methods are recommended by the National Cholesterol Education Program as the first line of prevention and treatment for hypercholesterolemia and other risk factors. Research shows that CHD morbidity and mortality and major risk factors may be modifiable by behavioral intervention. Specifically, the Transcendental Meditation technique, an effective antidote to stress, reduces levels of major CHD risk factors including hypercholesterolemia, as well as blood pressure and smoking. Using an effective stress reduction approach for prevention and treatment of CHD and its risk factors in African Americans may prove to be a valuable asset for this underserved population.

[Effect of different anesthetic methods on postoperative outcomes in elderly patients undergoing hip fracture surgery].

PubMed

Wei, B; Zhang, H; Xu, M; Li, M; Wang, J; Zhang, L P; Guo, X Y; Zhao, Y M; Zhou, F

2017-12-18

To investigate the effect of general or regional anesthesia on postoperative cardiopulmonary complications and inpatient mortality after hip fracture surgery in elderly patients. A retrospective analysis was conducted according to the medical records of 572 elderly patients with hip fractures admitted to our hospital from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2014. The age, gender, preoperative comorbidities, length of preoperative bedridden time, mechanism of injury, surgical types, anesthetic methods, major postoperative complications and inpatient mortality were recorded. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was applied to analyze the impact of different anesthetic methods on inpatient mortality in these patients. Of the 572 patients, 392 (68.5%) received regional anesthesia. Inpatient death occurred in 8 (8/572, mortality: 1.4%), including 5 cases of RA group (5/392, mortality: 1.3%) and 3 cases of GA group (3/180, mortality: 1.7%). There was no statistically significant difference between the two groups in inpatient mortality (P>0.05). Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that gender (odds ratio: 0.18, 95% CI: 0.03-1.05, P=0.057), age (odds ratio: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.07-1.38, P=0.002), preoperative pulmonary comorbidities (odds ratio: 12.09, 95% CI: 2.28-64.12, P=0.003) and surgical types (odds ratio: 9.36, 95% CI: 1.34-64.26, P=0.024) were risk factors for inpatient mortality. Postoperative cardiovascular complications occurred in 36 patients (36/572, morbidity: 6.3%), with 19 patients in RA group (19/392, morbidity: 4.8%),and 17 patients in GA group (17/180, morbidity: 9.4%). Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07-1.19, P<0.001), hypertension (odds ratio: 2.72, 95% CI: 1.24-5.96, P=0.012) and preoperative cerebral comorbidities (odds ratio: 2.11, 95% CI: 0.99-4.52, P=0.054) were risk factors for postoperative cardiovascular complications. Postoperative pulmonary complications occurred in 56 patients (56/572, morbidity: 9.8%), with 19 patients in RA group (19/392, morbidity: 4.8%), and 37 patients in GA group (37/180, morbidity: 20.6%). Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07-1.19, P<0.001), preoperative pulmonary comorbidities (odds ratio: 2.89, 95% CI: 1.28-7.05, P=0.020), length of preoperative bedridden time (odds ratio: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04-1.18, P=0.003) and anesthetic methods (odds ratio: 5.86, 95% CI: 2.98-11.53, P<0.001) were risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications. General anesthesia may not affect the inpatient mortality after hip fracture surgery in elderly patients. Regional anesthesia is associated with a lower risk of pulmonary complications after surgical procedure compared with general anesthesia.

Clinical Risk Stratification for Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators

PubMed Central

Hardy, Judy; Yee, Raymond; Healey, Jeffrey S.; Birnie, David; Simpson, Christopher S.; Crystal, Eugene; Mangat, Iqwal; Nanthakumar, Kumaraswamy; Wang, Xuesong; Krahn, Andrew D.; Dorian, Paul; Austin, Peter C.; Tu, Jack V.

2015-01-01

Background— A conceptualized model may be useful for understanding risk stratification of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators considering the competing risks of appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator shock versus mortality. Methods and Results— In a prospective, multicenter, population-based cohort with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% referred for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator, we developed dual risk stratification models to determine the competing risks of appropriate defibrillator shock versus mortality using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model. Among 7020 patients referred, 3445 underwent defibrillator implant (79.7% men, median, 66 years [25th, 75th: 58–73]). During 5918 person-years of follow-up, appropriate shock occurred in 204 patients (3.6 shocks/100 person-years) and 292 died (4.9 deaths/100 person-years). Competing risk predictors of appropriate shock included nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, atrial fibrillation, serum creatinine concentration, digoxin or amiodarone use, and QRS duration near 130-ms peak. One-year cumulative incidence of appropriate shock was 0.9% in the lowest risk category, and 1.7%, 2.5%, 4.9%, and 9.3% in low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Hazard ratios for appropriate shock ranged from 4.04 to 7.79 in the highest 3 deciles (all P≤0.001 versus lowest risk). Cumulative incidence of 1-year death was 0.6%, 1.9%, 3.3%, 6.2%, and 17.7% in lowest, low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Mortality hazard ratios ranged from 11.48 to 36.22 in the highest 3 deciles (all P<0.001 versus lowest risk). Conclusions— Simultaneous estimation of risks of appropriate shock and mortality can be performed using clinical variables, providing a potential framework for identification of patients who are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillator. PMID:26224792

Infant Maltreatment-Related Mortality in Alaska: Correcting the Count and Using Birth Certificates to Predict Mortality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parrish, Jared W.; Gessner, Bradford D.

2010-01-01

Objectives: To accurately count the number of infant maltreatment-related fatalities and to use information from the birth certificates to predict infant maltreatment-related deaths. Methods: A population-based retrospective cohort study of infants born in Alaska for the years 1992 through 2005 was conducted. Risk factor variables were ascertained…

What is the association of hypothyroidism with risks of cardiovascular events and mortality? A meta-analysis of 55 cohort studies involving 1,898,314 participants.

PubMed

Ning, Yu; Cheng, Yun J; Liu, Li J; Sara, Jaskanwal D S; Cao, Zhi Y; Zheng, Wei P; Zhang, Tian S; Han, Hui J; Yang, Zhen Y; Zhang, Yi; Wang, Fei L; Pan, Rui Y; Huang, Jie L; Wu, Ling L; Zhang, Ming; Wei, Yong X

2017-02-02

Whether hypothyroidism is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular events is still disputed. We aimed to assess the association between hypothyroidism and risks of cardiovascular events and mortality. We searched PubMed and Embase from inception to 29 February 2016. Cohort studies were included with no restriction of hypothyroid states. Priori main outcomes were ischemic heart disease (IHD), cardiac mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Fifty-five cohort studies involving 1,898,314 participants were identified. Patients with hypothyroidism, compared with euthyroidism, experienced higher risks of IHD (relative risk (RR): 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.26), myocardial infarction (MI) (RR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.05-1.25), cardiac mortality (RR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.38-2.80), and all-cause mortality (RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.13-1.39); subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH; especially with thyrotropin level ≥10 mIU/L) was also associated with higher risks of IHD and cardiac mortality. Moreover, cardiac patients with hypothyroidism, compared with those with euthyroidism, experienced higher risks of cardiac mortality (RR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.28-3.83) and all-cause mortality (RR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.26-1.81). Hypothyroidism is a risk factor for IHD and cardiac mortality. Hypothyroidism is associated with higher risks of cardiac mortality and all-cause mortality compared with euthyroidism in the general public or in patients with cardiac disease.

Consequences of household air pollution on child survival: evidence from demographic and health surveys in 47 countries

PubMed Central

Patel, Archana B.; Borkar, Jitesh A.; Hibberd, Patricia L.

2015-01-01

Background: Over one-third of the world’s population is exposed to household air pollution (HAP) but the separate effects of cooking with solid fuel and kerosene on childhood mortality are unclear. Objectives: To evaluate the effects of both solid fuels and kerosene on neonatal (0-28 days) and child (29 days-59 months) mortality. Methods: We used Demographic and Health Surveys from 47 countries and calculated adjusted relative risks (aRR) using Poisson regression models. Results: The aRR of neonatal and child mortality in households exposed to solid fuels were 1.24 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.34) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.30), respectively, and the aRR for neonatal and child mortality in households exposed to kerosene were 1.34 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.52) and 1.12 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.27), controlling for individual, household, and country-level predictors of mortality. Conclusions: Kerosene should not be classified as a clean fuel. Neonates are at risk for mortality from exposure to solid fuels and kerosene. PMID:25843087

Estimation of PM2.5 Concentration Efficiency and Potential Public Mortality Reduction in Urban China

PubMed Central

Yu, Anyu; Jia, Guangshe; You, Jianxin

2018-01-01

The particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) is a serious air-pollutant emission in China, which has caused serious risks to public health. To reduce the pollution and corresponding public mortality, this paper proposes a method by incorporating slacks-based data envelopment analysis (DEA) and an integrated exposure risk (IER) model. By identifying the relationship between the PM2.5 concentration and mortality, the potential PM2.5 concentration efficiency and mortality reduction were measured. The proposed method has been applied to China’s 243 cities in 2015. Some implications are achieved. (1) There are urban disparities in estimated results around China. The geographic distribution of urban mortality reduction is consistent with that of the PM2.5 concentration efficiency, but some inconsistency also exists. (2) The pollution reduction and public health improvement should be addressed among China’s cities, especially for those in northern coastal, eastern coastal, and middle Yellow River areas. The reduction experience of PM2.5 concentration in cities of the southern coastal area could be advocated in China. (3) Environmental consideration should be part of the production adjustment of urban central China. The updating of technology is suggested for specific cities and should be considered by the policymaker. PMID:29543783

The importance of early life family factors in the association between cardiovascular risk factors and early cardiovascular mortality

PubMed Central

Kjøllesdal, Marte K R; Ariansen, Inger; Mortensen, Laust H; Næss, Øyvind

2017-01-01

Objective To explore the importance of early life factors shared by siblings, such as parental socioeconomic position, parental practices, housing and neighbourhood, for the association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and mortality from CVD, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease. Methods Norwegian health surveys (1974–2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study and the Cause of Death Registry. Participants with at least one full sibling among survey participants (n=2 71 643) were included. Data on CVD risk factors, body mass index (BMI), height, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol (TC) were stratified into ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ risk, and smoking to ‘daily smoking’ and ‘not daily smoking’. Results Mean age of participants was 41 years, mean follow-up time was 19 years and during follow-up 2512 died from CVD. For each category of increased risk factor level, the per step HR of CVD mortality was increased by 1.91 (95% CI 1.78 to 2.05) for SBP, 1.67 (1.58 to 1.76) for TC, 1.44 (1.36 to 1.53) for BMI, 1.26 (1.18 to 1.35) for height and 2.89 (2.66 to 3.14) for smoking. In analyses where each sibship (groups of full siblings) had a group-specific baseline hazard, these associations were attenuated to 1.74, 1.51, 1.29, 1.18 and 2.63, respectively. The associations between risk factors and IHD mortality followed the same pattern. Conclusion Early life family factors explained a small part of the association between risk factors and mortality from CVD and IHD in a relatively young sample. PMID:28878947

Levels and trends of child and adult mortality rates in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1990-2013; protocol of the NASBOD study.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Younes; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Farzadfar, Farshad; Kasaeian, Amir; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Sheidaei, Ali; Mansouri, Anita; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Djalalinia, Shirin; Mahmoudi, Mahmood; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Yazdani, Kamran

2014-03-01

Calculation of burden of diseases and risk factors is crucial to set priorities in the health care systems. Nevertheless, the reliable measurement of mortality rates is the main barrier to reach this goal. Unfortunately, in many developing countries the vital registration system (VRS) is either defective or does not exist at all. Consequently, alternative methods have been developed to measure mortality. This study is a subcomponent of NASBOD project, which is currently conducting in Iran. In this study, we aim to calculate incompleteness of the Death Registration System (DRS) and then to estimate levels and trends of child and adult mortality using reliable methods. In order to estimate mortality rates, first, we identify all possible data sources. Then, we calculate incompleteness of child and adult morality separately. For incompleteness of child mortality, we analyze summary birth history data using maternal age cohort and maternal age period methods. Then, we combine these two methods using LOESS regression. However, these estimates are not plausible for some provinces. We use additional information of covariates such as wealth index and years of schooling to make predictions for these provinces using spatio-temporal model. We generate yearly estimates of mortality using Gaussian process regression that covers both sampling and non-sampling errors within uncertainty intervals. By comparing the resulted estimates with mortality rates from DRS, we calculate child mortality incompleteness. For incompleteness of adult mortality, Generalized Growth Balance, Synthetic Extinct Generation and a hybrid of two mentioned methods are used. Afterwards, we combine incompleteness of three methods using GPR, and apply it to correct and adjust the number of deaths. In this study, we develop a conceptual framework to overcome the existing challenges for accurate measuring of mortality rates. The resulting estimates can be used to inform policy-makers about past, current and future mortality rates as a major indicator of health status of a population.

[Anaesthetic security: evolution of ideas].

PubMed

Cherif, Ali; Daghfous, Mounir; Saîdi, Yosri

2008-11-01

The concept of risk has not clear neither in the media nor in the medical field. It appears important to us to bring details relating some definitions in the field of anaesthesia safety. This work aims to clarify the concepts of safety, of risk in a medical activity like the Anaesthesia. A search was carried out on Medline with the following key words: Risk anaesthetic, anaesthetic Safety, anaesthetic mortality. The definitions of risk, of acceptable risk taking account of social and economic considerations are brought in this text. The ways to evaluate safety and the methods to achieve it was developed. The indicator of quality more used to evaluate safety is anaesthetic mortality. Many difficulties exist with the interpretation of data on mortality. The standards of care are normally established according to the degree of necessary safety. Concurrently to these standards exist certainly the human error which is a phenomenon towards which must direct all the efforts of improvement of safety but more especially the errors of system which are found regularly in the analysis of accidents and incident. The identification of the failures is the mandatory step to achieve safety.

Directly Observed Therapy Reduces Tuberculosis-Specific Mortality: A Population-Based Follow-Up Study in Taipei, Taiwan

PubMed Central

Yen, Yung-Feng; Yen, Muh-Yong; Lin, Yi-Ping; Shih, Hsiu-Chen; Li, Lan-Huei; Chou, Pesus; Deng, Chung-Yeh

2013-01-01

Objectives To determine the effect of directly observed therapy (DOT) on tuberculosis-specific mortality and non-TB-specific mortality and identify prognostic factors associated with mortality among adults with culture-positive pulmonary TB (PTB). Methods All adult Taiwanese with PTB in Taipei, Taiwan were included in a retrospective cohort study in 2006–2010. Backward stepwise multinomial logistic regression was used to identify risk factors associated with each mortality outcome. Results Mean age of the 3,487 patients was 64.2 years and 70.4% were male. Among 2471 patients on DOT, 4.2% (105) died of TB-specific causes and 15.4% (381) died of non-TB-specific causes. Among 1016 patients on SAT, 4.4% (45) died of TB-specific causes and 11.8% (120) died of non-TB-specific causes. , After adjustment for potential confounders, the odds ratio for TB-specific mortality was 0.45 (95% CI: 0.30–0.69) among patients treated with DOT as compared with those on self-administered treatment. Independent predictors of TB-specific and non-TB-specific mortality included older age (ie, 65–79 and ≥80 years vs. 18–49 years), being unemployed, a positive sputum smear for acid-fast bacilli, and TB notification from a general ward or intensive care unit (reference: outpatient services). Male sex, end-stage renal disease requiring dialysis, malignancy, and pleural effusion on chest radiography were associated with increased risk of non-TB-specific mortality, while presence of lung cavities on chest radiography was associated with lower risk. Conclusions DOT reduced TB-specific mortality by 55% among patients with PTB, after controlling for confounders. DOT should be given to all TB patients to further reduce TB-specific mortality. PMID:24278152

Does unemployment cause long-term mortality? Selection and causation after the 1992–96 deep Swedish recession

PubMed Central

Garcy, Anthony M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Mass unemployment in Europe is endemic, especially among the young. Does it cause mortality? Methods: We analyzed long-term effects of unemployment occurring during the deep Swedish recession 1992–96. Mortality from all and selected causes was examined in the 6-year period after the recession among those employed in 1990 (3.4 million). Direct health selection was analyzed as risk of unemployment by prior medical history based on all hospitalizations 1981–91. Unemployment effects on mortality were estimated with and without adjustment for prior social characteristics and for prior medical history. Results: A prior circulatory disease history did not predict unemployment; a history of alcohol-related disease or suicide attempts did, in men and women. Unemployment predicted excess male, but not female, mortality from circulatory disease, both ischemic heart disease and stroke, and from all causes combined, after full adjustment. Adjustment for prior social characteristics reduced estimates considerably; additional adjustment for prior medical history did not. Mortality from external and alcohol-related causes was raised in men and women experiencing unemployment, after adjustment for social characteristics and medical history. For the youngest birth cohorts fully adjusted alcohol mortality HRs were substantial (male HR = 4.44; female HR = 5.73). The effect of unemployment on mortality was not uniform across the population; men, those with a low education, low income, unmarried or in urban employment were more vulnerable. Conclusions: Direct selection by medical history explains a modest fraction of any increased mortality risk following unemployment. Mass unemployment imposes long-term mortality risk on a sizeable segment of the population. PMID:27085193

A cut-off of daily sedentary time and all-cause mortality in adults: a meta-regression analysis involving more than 1 million participants.

PubMed

Ku, Po-Wen; Steptoe, Andrew; Liao, Yung; Hsueh, Ming-Chun; Chen, Li-Jung

2018-05-25

The appropriate limit to the amount of daily sedentary time (ST) required to minimize mortality is uncertain. This meta-analysis aimed to quantify the dose-response association between daily ST and all-cause mortality and to explore the cut-off point above which health is impaired in adults aged 18-64 years old. We also examined whether there are differences between studies using self-report ST and those with device-based ST. Prospective cohort studies providing effect estimates of daily ST (exposure) on all-cause mortality (outcome) were identified via MEDLINE, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases until January 2018. Dose-response relationships between daily ST and all-cause mortality were examined using random-effects meta-regression models. Based on the pooled data for more than 1 million participants from 19 studies, the results showed a log-linear dose-response association between daily ST and all-cause mortality. Overall, more time spent in sedentary behaviors is associated with increased mortality risks. However, the method of measuring ST moderated the association between daily ST and mortality risk (p < 0.05). The cut-off of daily ST in studies with self-report ST was 7 h/day in comparison with 9 h/day for those with device-based ST. Higher amounts of daily ST are log-linearly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in adults. On the basis of a limited number of studies using device-based measures, the findings suggest that it may be appropriate to encourage adults to engage in less sedentary behaviors, with fewer than 9 h a day being relevant for all-cause mortality.

Global cardiovascular mortality risk in the adult Polish population: prospective assessment of the cohorts studied in multicentre national WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior studies.

PubMed

Piotrowski, Walerian; Waśkiewicz, Anna; Cicha-Mikołajczyk, Alicja

2016-01-01

To develop a global cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk model for the Polish population and to verify these data in the context of the SCORE risk algorithm. We analysed data obtained in two multicentre national population studies, the WOBASZ study which was conducted in 2003-2005 and included 14,769 subjects aged 20-74 years, and the WOBASZ Senior study which was conducted in 2007 and included 1096 subjects above 74 years of age. All these subjects were followed for survival status until 2012 and the cause of death was determined. The mean duration of follow-up was 8.2 years for WOBASZ study participants and about 5 years for WOBASZ Senior study participants. Overall, 1436 subjects died, including 568 due to CVD. For the purpose of our analysis of overall and CVD mortality, 15 established risk factors were selected. Survival was analysed separately in WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants. Statistical methods included descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional hazard models, and the SCORE risk algorithm. Measure of incompatibility of the SCORE risk model to the Polish population was determined as the difference between mortality rates by the SCORE risk quartiles and the Cox approach. During the 8-year follow-up of the WOBASZ study population, mortality due to CVD was 38% among men and 31% among women. The most common causes of CVD mortality were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 33%) followed by cerebro-vascular disease (17%) in men, and cerebrovascular disease (31%) followed by IHD (23%) in women. We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for both overall mortality and CVD mortality (p < 0.0001). For overall mortality among men and women, nearly all selected risk factors were shown to be significant in univariate analyses, except for high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level and the total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio in men, and smoking status in women. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors in men included age, glucose level, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status. In women, independent predictors were age, smoking status, and diabetes. During the 5-year follow-up of the WOBASZ Senior study population, mortality due to CVD was 48% among men and 58% among women. The most common cause of CVD mortality in both men and women was IHD (29% and 24%, respectively), followed by cerebrovascular disease (16% and 21%, respectively). We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for overall mortality (p < 0.0001) but not for CVD mortality (p = 0.0755). Due to the fact that survival curves for CVD mortality did not differ between men and women, we estimated the cut-off age for no survival difference in the WOBASZ study. By selecting the oldest patients and adding them to the WOBASZ Senior cohort, we obtained the cut-off age of 70 years above which the survival curves were not significantly different between men and women. In univariate analyses, independent predictors in men were age and creatinine level. These factors remained significant in multivariate analysis. In women above 74 years of age, independent predictors in univariate analyses included age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio, and smoking status. Age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, and smoking status remained independent predictors of overall mortality in multivariate analysis. For CVD mortality, significant predictors were the same as for overall mortality. In women, significant predictors in uni- and multivariate analyses were age and smoking status. Overall disagreement between CVD mortality rates by the SCORE risk model and the Cox model was 5.7% in men and 2% in women. 1. Long-term follow-up of WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants allowed assessment of the inde-pendent association of the evaluated cardiovascular risk factors with CVD mortality in the Polish population. 2. Validation of the SCORE risk algorithm to estimate individual global CVD risk in the Polish population showed a high predictive value of this algorithm.

Olive oil intake and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in the PREDIMED Study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background It is unknown whether individuals at high cardiovascular risk sustain a benefit in cardiovascular disease from increased olive oil consumption. The aim was to assess the association between total olive oil intake, its varieties (extra virgin and common olive oil) and the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Methods We included 7,216 men and women at high cardiovascular risk, aged 55 to 80 years, from the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) study, a multicenter, randomized, controlled, clinical trial. Participants were randomized to one of three interventions: Mediterranean Diets supplemented with nuts or extra-virgin olive oil, or a control low-fat diet. The present analysis was conducted as an observational prospective cohort study. The median follow-up was 4.8 years. Cardiovascular disease (stroke, myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death) and mortality were ascertained by medical records and National Death Index. Olive oil consumption was evaluated with validated food frequency questionnaires. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards and generalized estimating equations were used to assess the association between baseline and yearly repeated measurements of olive oil intake, cardiovascular disease and mortality. Results During follow-up, 277 cardiovascular events and 323 deaths occurred. Participants in the highest energy-adjusted tertile of baseline total olive oil and extra-virgin olive oil consumption had 35% (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.89) and 39% (HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.44 to 0.85) cardiovascular disease risk reduction, respectively, compared to the reference. Higher baseline total olive oil consumption was associated with 48% (HR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.93) reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality. For each 10 g/d increase in extra-virgin olive oil consumption, cardiovascular disease and mortality risk decreased by 10% and 7%, respectively. No significant associations were found for cancer and all-cause mortality. The associations between cardiovascular events and extra virgin olive oil intake were significant in the Mediterranean diet intervention groups and not in the control group. Conclusions Olive oil consumption, specifically the extra-virgin variety, is associated with reduced risks of cardiovascular disease and mortality in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Trial registration This study was registered at controlled-trials.com (http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN35739639). International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 35739639. Registration date: 5 October 2005. PMID:24886626

Career Excess Mortality Risk from Diagnostic Radiological Exams Required for Crewmembers Participating in Long Duration Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dodge, C. W.; Gonzalez, S. M.; Picco, C. E.; Johnston, S. L.; Shavers, M. R.; VanBaalen, M.

2008-01-01

NASA requires astronauts to undergo diagnostic x-ray examinations as a condition for their employment. The purpose of these procedures is to assess the astronaut s overall health and to diagnose conditions that could jeopardize the success of long duration space missions. These include exams for acceptance into the astronaut corps, routine periodic exams, as well as evaluations taken pre and post missions. Issues: According to NASA policy these medical examinations are considered occupational radiological exposures, and thus, are included when computing the astronaut s overall radiation dose and associated excess cancer mortality risk. As such, astronauts and administrators are concerned about the amount of radiation received from these procedures due to the possibility that these additional doses may cause astronauts to exceed NASA s administrative limits, thus disqualifying them from future flights. Methods: Radiation doses and cancer mortality risks following required medical radiation exposures are presented herein for representative male and female astronaut careers. Calculation of the excess cancer mortality risk was performed by adapting NASA s operational risk assessment model. Averages for astronaut height, weight, number of space missions and age at selection into the astronaut corps were used as inputs to the NASA risk model. Conclusion: The results show that the level of excess cancer mortality imposed by all required medical procedures over an entire astronaut s career is approximately the same as that resulting from a single short duration space flight (i.e. space shuttle mission). In short the summation of all medical procedures involving ionizing radiation should have no impact on the number of missions an astronaut can fly over their career. Learning Objectives: 1. The types of diagnostic medical exams which astronauts are subjected to will be presented. 2. The level of radiation dose and excess mortality risk to the average male and female astronaut will be presented.

Increased Risks of Mortality and Atherosclerotic Complications in Incident Hemodialysis Patients Subsequently with Bone Fractures: A Nationwide Case-Matched Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Kuo, Chiu-Huang; Hsieh, Tsung-Cheng; Wang, Chih-Hsien; Chou, Chu-Lin; Lai, Yu-Hsien; Chen, Yi-Ya; Lin, Yu-Li; Wu, Sheng-Teng; Fang, Te-Chao

2015-01-01

Background Hemodialysis (HD) patients with bone fractures have an increased risk for death. However, the risks for mortality and atherosclerotic complications in incident HD patients subsequently with bone fractures are unknown. Methods Data derived from the Taiwan National Health Institute Research Database between January 1997 and December 2008 was analyzed. The enrolled patients included 3,008 incident HD patients subsequently with a single long bone fracture (LB Fx) and 2,070 incident HD patients subsequently with a single non-long bone fracture (NLB Fx). These patients were matched (1:5 ratio) for age, sex, and same duration of HD with incident HD patients who had no fractures and outcomes were measured over a 3-year follow-up. Results After demographic and co-morbidity adjustment, LB Fx increased the risk for overall mortality (HR = 1.59, p < 0.001) and stroke (HR = 1.09, p = 0.028) in incident HD patients. NLB Fx increased the risk for overall mortality (HR = 1.52, p < 0.001), stroke (HR = 1.19, p < 0.001), coronary artery disease (CAD), (HR = 1.13, p = 0.003), and peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD), (HR = 1.41, p < 0.001) in incident HD patients. Moreover, incident patients subsequently with NLB Fx had significantly higher risks of CAD and PAOD than those subsequently with LB Fx. Conclusions The rates of mortality and stroke were significantly higher in incident HD patients subsequently with bone fractures than in matched patients without bone fractures. Incident HD patients subsequently with NLB Fx had significantly higher risks of CAD and PAOD than those subsequently with LB Fx and without bone fractures. Thus, incident HD patients subsequently with bone fractures should be closely followed for a higher mortality and possible development of atherosclerotic complications. PMID:25874794

Polyphenol intake and mortality risk: a re-analysis of the PREDIMED trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Polyphenols may lower the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other chronic diseases due to their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, as well as their beneficial effects on blood pressure, lipids and insulin resistance. However, no previous epidemiological studies have evaluated the relationship between the intake of total polyphenols intake and polyphenol subclasses with overall mortality. Our aim was to evaluate whether polyphenol intake is associated with all-cause mortality in subjects at high cardiovascular risk. Methods We used data from the PREDIMED study, a 7,447-participant, parallel-group, randomized, multicenter, controlled five-year feeding trial aimed at assessing the effects of the Mediterranean Diet in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Polyphenol intake was calculated by matching food consumption data from repeated food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) with the Phenol-Explorer database on the polyphenol content of each reported food. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between polyphenol intake and mortality were estimated using time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models. Results Over an average of 4.8 years of follow-up, we observed 327 deaths. After multivariate adjustment, we found a 37% relative reduction in all-cause mortality comparing the highest versus the lowest quintiles of total polyphenol intake (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.63; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.12). Among the polyphenol subclasses, stilbenes and lignans were significantly associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR =0.48; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.91; P for trend = 0.04 and HR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.03, respectively), with no significant associations apparent in the rest (flavonoids or phenolic acids). Conclusions Among high-risk subjects, those who reported a high polyphenol intake, especially of stilbenes and lignans, showed a reduced risk of overall mortality compared to those with lower intakes. These results may be useful to determine optimal polyphenol intake or specific food sources of polyphenols that may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality. Clinical trial registration ISRCTN35739639. PMID:24886552

Mortality and Its Risk Factors in Patients with Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder

PubMed Central

Zhou, Junying; Zhang, Jihui; Lam, Siu Ping; Mok, Vincent; Chan, Anne; Li, Shirley Xin; Liu, Yaping; Tang, Xiangdong; Yung, Wing Ho; Wing, Yun Kwok

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: To determine the mortality and its risk factors in patients with rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD). Methods: A total of 205 consecutive patients with video-polysomnography confirmed RBD (mean age = 66.4 ± 10.0 y, 78.5% males) were recruited. Medical records and death status were systematically reviewed in the computerized records of the health care system. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was used to calculate the risk ratio of mortality in RBD with reference to the general population. Results: Forty-three patients (21.0%) died over a mean follow-up period of 7.1 ± 4.5 y. The SMR was not increased in the overall sample, SMR (95% confidence interval [CI]) = 1.00 (0.73–1.33). However, SMR (95% CI) increased to 1.80 (1.21–2.58) and 1.75 (1.11–2.63) for RBD patients in whom neurodegenerative diseases and dementia, respectively, eventually developed. In the Cox regression model, mortality risk was significantly associated with age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01–1.10), living alone (HR = 2.04; 95% CI, 1.39–2.99), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.21–9.46), cancer (HR = 10.09; 95% CI, 2.65–38.42), periodic limb movements during sleep (HR = 3.06; 95% CI, 1.50–6.24), and development of neurodegenerative diseases (HR = 2.84; 95% CI, 1.47–5.45) and dementia (HR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.39–5.08). Conclusions: Patients with RBD have a higher mortality rate than the general population only if neurodegenerative diseases develop. Several risk factors on clinical and sleep aspects are associated with mortality in RBD patients. Our findings underscore the necessity of timely neuroprotective interventions in the early phase of RBD before the development of neurodegenerative diseases. Citation: Zhou J, Zhang J, Lam SP, Mok V, Chan A, Li SX, Liu Y, Tang X, Yung WH, Wing YK. Mortality and its risk factors in patients with rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder. SLEEP 2016;39(8):1543–1550. PMID:27306273

Chocolate and Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Ding, Eric L; Hutfless, Susan M; Ding, Xin; Girotra, Saket

2006-01-01

Background Consumption of chocolate has been often hypothesized to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) due to chocolate's high levels of stearic acid and antioxidant flavonoids. However, debate still lingers regarding the true long term beneficial cardiovascular effects of chocolate overall. Methods We reviewed English-language MEDLINE publications from 1966 through January 2005 for experimental, observational, and clinical studies of relations between cocoa, cacao, chocolate, stearic acid, flavonoids (including flavonols, flavanols, catechins, epicatechins, and procynadins) and the risk of cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke). A total of 136 publications were selected based on relevance, and quality of design and methods. An updated meta-analysis of flavonoid intake and CHD mortality was also conducted. Results The body of short-term randomized feeding trials suggests cocoa and chocolate may exert beneficial effects on cardiovascular risk via effects on lowering blood pressure, anti-inflammation, anti-platelet function, higher HDL, decreased LDL oxidation. Additionally, a large body of trials of stearic acid suggests it is indeed cholesterol-neutral. However, epidemiologic studies of serum and dietary stearic acid are inconclusive due to many methodologic limitations. Meanwhile, the large body of prospective studies of flavonoids suggests the flavonoid content of chocolate may reduce risk of cardiovascular mortality. Our updated meta-analysis indicates that intake of flavonoids may lower risk of CHD mortality, RR = 0.81 (95% CI: 0.71–0.92) comparing highest and lowest tertiles. Conclusion Multiple lines of evidence from laboratory experiments and randomized trials suggest stearic acid may be neutral, while flavonoids are likely protective against CHD mortality. The highest priority now is to conduct larger randomized trials to definitively investigate the impact of chocolate consumption on long-term cardiovascular outcomes. PMID:16390538

The Prediction of the Risk Level of Pulmonary Embolism and Deep Vein Thrombosis through Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

Agharezaei, Laleh; Agharezaei, Zhila; Nemati, Ali; Bahaadinbeigy, Kambiz; Keynia, Farshid; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Iranpour, Abedin; Agharezaei, Moslem

2016-01-01

Background: Venous thromboembolism is a common cause of mortality among hospitalized patients and yet it is preventable through detecting the precipitating factors and a prompt diagnosis by specialists. The present study has been carried out in order to assist specialists in the diagnosis and prediction of the risk level of pulmonary embolism in patients, by means of artificial neural network. Method: A number of 31 risk factors have been used in this study in order to evaluate the conditions of 294 patients hospitalized in 3 educational hospitals affiliated with Kerman University of Medical Sciences. Two types of artificial neural networks, namely Feed-Forward Back Propagation and Elman Back Propagation, were compared in this study. Results: Through an optimized artificial neural network model, an accuracy and risk level index of 93.23 percent was achieved and, subsequently, the results have been compared with those obtained from the perfusion scan of the patients. 86.61 percent of high risk patients diagnosed through perfusion scan diagnostic method were also diagnosed correctly through the method proposed in the present study. Conclusions: The results of this study can be a good resource for physicians, medical assistants, and healthcare staff to diagnose high risk patients more precisely and prevent the mortalities. Additionally, expenses and other unnecessary diagnostic methods such as perfusion scans can be efficiently reduced. PMID:28077893

Psychiatric Comorbidity and Its Impact on Mortality in Patients Who Attempted Suicide by Paraquat Poisoning during 2000–2010

PubMed Central

Lin, Chemin; Yen, Tzung-Hai; Juang, Yeong-Yuh; Lin, Ja-Liang; Lee, Shwu-Hua

2014-01-01

Background Paraquat poisoning is a lethal method of suicide used around the world. Although restricting its accessibility had been widely discussed, the underlying psychopathological mechanism of paraquat self-poisoning and its association with mortality have not yet been explicitly evaluated. Methods We included all patients admitted to a tertiary general hospital in Taiwan between 2000 and 2010 following a suicide attempt by paraquat self-administration. Diagnoses were made upon psychiatric consultation based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria. The risk of mortality was calculated by logistic regression with various psychiatric or medical covariates. Results The consultation-liaison psychiatry team assessed 157 patients who attempted suicide by paraquat poisoning. Mood disorders (54.0%), including dysthymic (26.7%) and major depressive disorders (24.7%), were the most common psychiatric diagnoses among the self-poisoning patients. Among those who attempted suicide, 87 patients (58.0%) died and dysthymic disorder (OR = 5.58, 95% CI: 1.13–27.69; p<0.05) significantly increased the mortality risk after adjustment for relevant medical variables, including age, gender, severity index of paraquat poisoning (SIPP), and risk for respiratory failure. Conclusions Awareness of comorbid psychiatric illnesses, especially dysthymic disorder, is vital in the prevention and treatment of suicide by paraquat poisoning. PMID:25386676

Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

PubMed

Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

2016-03-01

Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Associations of kidney disease measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease in individuals with and without hypertension: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Mahmoodi, Bakhtawar K.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Woodward, Mark; Blankestijn, Peter J.; Cirillo, Massimo; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Rossing, Peter; Sarnak, Mark J.; Stengel, Bénédicte; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Yamashita, Kentaro; Zhang, Luxia; Coresh, Josef; de Jong, Paul E.; Astor, Brad C.

2014-01-01

Background Hypertension is the most prevalent comorbidity in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). It is unknown, however, whether the association of the CKD measures, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria, with mortality or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) differs by hypertensive status. Methods We performed a meta-analysis of 45 cohorts (25 general population, 7 high-risk and 13 CKD cohorts), including 1,127,656 participants (364,344 with hypertension). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality (84,078 deaths from 40 cohorts) and ESRD (7,587 events from 21 cohorts) by hypertensive status were obtained for each study and pooled using random-effects models. Findings Low eGFR and high albuminuria were associated with mortality in both non-hypertensive and hypertensive individuals in the general population and high-risk cohorts. Mortality risk was higher in hypertensives as compared to non-hypertensives at preserved eGFR but a steeper relative risk gradient among non-hypertensives than hypertensives at eGFR range 45-75 ml/min/1.73m2 led to similar mortality risk at lower eGFR. With a reference eGFR of 95 mL/min/1.73m2 in each group to explicitly assess interaction, adjusted HR for all-cause mortality at eGFR 45 mL/min/1.73m2 was 1.77 (95% CI, 1.57-1.99) in non-hypertensives versus 1.24 (1.11-1.39) in hypertensives (P for overall interaction =0.0003). Similarly, for albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) of 300 mg/g (vs. 5 mg/g), HRs were 2.30 (1.98-2.68) in non-hypertensives versus 2.08 (1.84-2.35) in hypertensives (P for overall interaction=0.019). Similar results were observed for cardiovascular mortality. The associations of eGFR and albuminuria with ESRD, however, did not differ by hypertensive status. Results in CKD cohorts were comparable to results in general and high-risk population cohorts. Interpretation Low eGFR and elevated albuminuria were more strongly associated with mortality among individuals without hypertension than in those with hypertension, but the associations with ESRD were similar. CKD should be considered at least an equally relevant risk factor for mortality and ESRD in non-hypertensive as it is in hypertensive individuals. Funding The US National Kidney Foundation (sources include Abbott and Amgen). PMID:23013600

Metabolic acidosis status and mortality in patients on the end stage of renal disease.

PubMed

Raikou, Vaia D

2016-12-01

Uncorrected metabolic acidosis leads to higher death risk in dialysis patients. We observed the relationship between metabolic acidosis status and mortality rate in patients on renal replacement therapy during a median follow up time of 60 months. We studied 76 patients on an on-line hemodiafiltration. The dialysis adequacy was defined by Kt/V for urea. The Framingham risk score (FRS) points were used to determine the 10-year risk for coronary heart disease. We examined the impact of high or low serum bicarbonate concentrations on mortality rate and on 10-year risk for coronary heart disease via the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox's model was used to evaluate a combination of prognostic variables, such as dialysis adequacy defined by Kt/V for urea, age and serum bicarbonate concentrations. We divided the enrolled patients in three groups according to serum bicarbonate concentrations (< 20 mmol/L, 20-22 mmol/L and > 22 mmol/L). Kaplan-Meier survival curve for the impact of serum bicarbonate concentrations on overall mortality was found significant (log-rank = 7.8, P = 0.02). The prevalence of serum bicarbonate less or more than 20 mmol/L on high FRS (> 20%) by Kaplan-Meier curve was also found significant (log-rank = 4.9, P = 0.02). Cox's model revealed the significant predictive effect of serum bicarbonate on overall mortality ( P = 0.006, OR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.12-1.98) in combination to Kt/V for urea and age. Uncorrected severe metabolic acidosis, defined by serum bicarbonate concentrations less than 20 mmol/L, is associated with a 10-year risk for coronary heart disease more than 20% and high overall mortality in patients on renal replacement therapy.

The Combined Effect of Individual and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status on Cancer Survival Rates

PubMed Central

Lai, Ning-Sheng; Huang, Kuang-Yung; Chien, Sou-Hsin; Chang, Yu-Han; Lian, Wei-Cheng; Hsu, Ta-Wen; Lee, Ching-Chih

2012-01-01

Background This population-based study investigated the relationship between individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and mortality rates for major cancers in Taiwan. Methods A population-based follow-up study was conducted with 20,488 cancer patients diagnosed in 2002. Each patient was traced to death or for 5 years. The individual income-related insurance payment amount was used as a proxy measure of individual SES for patients. Neighborhood SES was defined by income, and neighborhoods were grouped as living in advantaged or disadvantaged areas. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the death-free survival rates between the different SES groups after adjusting for possible confounding and risk factors. Results After adjusting for patient characteristics (age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index Score, urbanization, and area of residence), tumor extent, treatment modalities (operation and adjuvant therapy), and hospital characteristics (ownership and teaching level), colorectal cancer, and head and neck cancer patients under 65 years old with low individual SES in disadvantaged neighborhoods conferred a 1.5 to 2-fold higher risk of mortality, compared with patients with high individual SES in advantaged neighborhoods. A cross-level interaction effect was found in lung cancer and breast cancer. Lung cancer and breast cancer patients less than 65 years old with low SES in advantaged neighborhoods carried the highest risk of mortality. Prostate cancer patients aged 65 and above with low SES in disadvantaged neighborhoods incurred the highest risk of mortality. There was no association between SES and mortality for cervical cancer and pancreatic cancer. Conclusions Our findings indicate that cancer patients with low individual SES have the highest risk of mortality even under a universal health-care system. Public health strategies and welfare policies must continue to focus on this vulnerable group. PMID:22957007

Repeated Measurement of the Intermountain Risk Score Enhances Prognostication for Mortality

PubMed Central

Horne, Benjamin D.; Lappé, Donald L.; Muhlestein, Joseph B.; May, Heidi T.; Ronnow, Brianna S.; Brunisholz, Kimberly D.; Kfoury, Abdallah G.; Bunch, T. Jared; Alharethi, Rami; Budge, Deborah; Whisenant, Brian K.; Bair, Tami L.; Jensen, Kurt R.; Anderson, Jeffrey L.

2013-01-01

Background The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS), composed of the complete blood count (CBC) and basic metabolic profile (BMP), predicts mortality and morbidity in medical and general populations. Whether longitudinal repeated measurement of IMRS is useful for prognostication is an important question for its clinical applicability. Methods Females (N = 5,698) and males (N = 5,437) with CBC and BMP panels measured 6 months to 2.0 years apart (mean 1.0 year) had baseline and follow-up IMRS computed. Survival analysis during 4.0±2.5 years (maximum 10 years) evaluated mortality (females: n = 1,255 deaths; males: n = 1,164 deaths) and incident major events (myocardial infarction, heart failure [HF], and stroke). Results Both baseline and follow-up IMRS (categorized as high-risk vs. low-risk) were independently associated with mortality (all p<0.001) in bivariable models. For females, follow-up IMRS had hazard ratio (HR) = 5.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.11, 6.64) and baseline IMRS had HR = 3.66 (CI = 2.94, 4.55). Among males, follow-up IMRS had HR = 4.28 (CI = 3.51, 5.22) and baseline IMRS had HR = 2.32 (CI = 1.91, 2.82). IMRS components such as RDW, measured at both time points, also predicted mortality. Baseline and follow-up IMRS strongly predicted incident HF in both genders. Conclusions Repeated measurement of IMRS at baseline and at about one year of follow-up were independently prognostic for mortality and incident HF among initially hospitalized patients. RDW and other CBC and BMP values were also predictive of outcomes. Further research should evaluate the utility of IMRS as a tool for clinical risk adjustment. PMID:23874899

Stroke Patients with a Past History of Cancer Are at Increased Risk of Recurrent Stroke and Cardiovascular Mortality

PubMed Central

Lau, Kui-Kai; Wong, Yuen-Kwun; Teo, Kay-Cheong; Chang, Richard Shek-Kwan; Hon, Sonny Fong-Kwong; Chan, Koon-Ho; Cheung, Raymond Tak-Fai; Li, Leonard Sheung-Wai; Tse, Hung-Fat; Ho, Shu-Leong; Siu, Chung-Wah

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Cancer patients are at increased risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. It is unclear whether cancer confers any additional risk for recurrent stroke or cardiovascular mortality after stroke. Methods This was a single center, observational study of 1,105 consecutive Chinese ischemic stroke patients recruited from a large stroke rehabilitation unit based in Hong Kong. We sought to determine whether patients with cancer are at higher risk of recurrent stroke and cardiovascular mortality. Results Amongst 1,105 patients, 58 patients (5.2%) had cancer, of whom 74% were in remission. After a mean follow-up of 76±18 months, 241 patients developed a recurrent stroke: 22 in patients with cancer (38%, annual incidence 13.94%/year), substantially more than those without cancer (21%, 4.65%/year) (p<0.01). In a Cox regression model, cancer, age and atrial fibrillation were the 3 independent predictors of recurrent stroke with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.42 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.54–3.80), 1.01 (1.00–1.03) and 1.35 (1.01–1.82) respectively. Likewise, patients with cancer had a higher cardiovascular mortality compared with those without cancer (4.30%/year vs. 2.35%/year, p = 0.08). In Cox regression analysis, cancer (HR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.08–4.02), age (HR: 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.06), heart failure (HR: 3.06, 95% CI 1.72–5.47) and significant carotid atherosclerosis (HR: 1.55, 95% CI 1.02–2.36) were independent predictors for cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Stroke patients with a past history of cancer are at increased risk of recurrent stroke and cardiovascular mortality. PMID:24523883

Trends in Hospital Volume and Operative Mortality for High-Risk Surgery

PubMed Central

Finks, Jonathan F.; Osborne, Nicholas H.; Birkmeyer, John D.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND There were numerous efforts in the United States during the previous decade to concentrate selected surgical procedures in high-volume hospitals. It remains unknown whether referral patterns for high-risk surgery have changed as a result and how operative mortality has been affected. METHODS We used national Medicare data to study patients undergoing one of eight different cancer and cardiovascular operations from 1999 through 2008. For each procedure, we examined trends in hospital volume and market concentration, defined as the proportion of Medicare patients undergoing surgery in the top decile of hospitals by volume per year. We used regression-based techniques to assess the effects of volume and market concentration on mortality over time, adjusting for case mix. RESULTS Median hospital volumes of four cancer resections (lung, esophagus, pancreas, and bladder) and of repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rose substantially. Depending on the procedure, higher hospital volumes were attributable to an increasing number of cases nationwide, an increasing market concentration, or both. Hospital volumes rose slightly for aortic-valve replacement but fell for coronary-artery bypass grafting and carotid endarterectomy. Operative mortality declined for all eight procedures, ranging from a relative decline of 8% for carotid endarterectomy (1.3% mortality in 1999 and 1.2% in 2008) to 36% for AAA repair (4.4% in 1999 and 2.8% in 2008). Higher hospital volumes explained a large portion of the decline in mortality for pancreatectomy (67% of the decline), cystectomy (37%), and esophagectomy (32%), but not for the other procedures. CONCLUSIONS Operative mortality with high-risk surgery fell substantially during the previous decade. Although increased market concentration and hospital volume have contributed to declining mortality with some high-risk cancer operations, declines in mortality with other procedures are largely attributable to other factors. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging.) PMID:21631325

Housework Reduces All-Cause and Cancer Mortality in Chinese Men

PubMed Central

Yu, Ruby; Leung, Jason; Woo, Jean

2013-01-01

Background Leisure time physical activity has been extensively studied. However, the health benefits of non-leisure time physical activity, particular those undertaken at home on all-cause and cancer mortality are limited, particularly among the elderly. Methods We studied physical activity in relation to all-cause and cancer mortality in a cohort of 4,000 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 and older. Leisure time physical activity (sport/recreational activity and lawn work/yard care/gardening) and non-leisure time physical activity (housework, home repairs and caring for another person) were self-reported on the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly. Subjects with heart diseases, stroke, cancer or diabetes at baseline were excluded (n = 1,133). Results Among the 2,867 subjects with a mean age of 72 years at baseline, 452 died from all-cause and 185 died from cancer during the follow-up period (2001–2012). With the adjustment for age, education level and lifestyle factors, we found an inverse association between risk of all-cause mortality and heavy housework among men, with the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.72 (95%CI = 0.57–0.92). Further adjustment for BMI, frailty index, living arrangement, and leisure time activity did not change the result (HR = 0.71, 95%CI = 0.56–0.91). Among women, however, heavy housework was not associated with all-cause mortality. The risk of cancer mortality was significantly lower among men who participated in heavy housework (HR = 0.52, 95%CI = 0.35–0.78), whereas among women the risk was not significant. Men participated in light housework also were at lower risk of cancer mortality than were their counterparts, however, the association was not significant. Leisure time physical activity was not related to all-cause or cancer mortality in either men or women. Conclusion Heavy housework is associated with reduced mortality and cancer deaths over a 9-year period. The underlying mechanism needs further study. PMID:23667441

Examination of the association between mental health, morbidity, and mortality in late life: findings from longitudinal community surveys.

PubMed

Burns, Richard A; Butterworth, Peter; Browning, Colette; Byles, Julie; Luszcz, Mary; Mitchell, Paul; Shaw, Jonathan; Anstey, Kaarin J

2015-05-01

Physical health has been demonstrated to mediate the mental health and mortality risk association. The current study examines an alternative hypothesis that mental health mediates the effect of physical health on mortality risk. Participants (N = 14,019; women = 91%), including eventual decedents (n = 3,752), were aged 70 years and older, and drawn from the Dynamic Analyses to Optimise Ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Participants were observed on two to four occasions, over a 10-year period. Mediation analysis compared the converse mediation of physical and mental health on mortality risk. For men, neither physical nor mental health was associated with mortality risk. For women, poor mental health reported only a small effect on mortality risk (Hazard Risk (HR) = 1.01; p < 0.001); more substantive was the risk of low physical health (HR = 1.04; p < 0.001). No mediation effects were observed. Mental health effects on mortality were fully attenuated by physical health in men, and partially so in women. Neither mental nor physical health mediated the effect of each other on mortality risk for either gender. We conclude that physical health is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than mental health.

General outcomes and risk factors for minor and major amputations in Brazil.

PubMed

Leite, Jose O; Costa, Leandro O; Fonseca, Walter M; Souza, Debora U; Goncalves, Barbara C; Gomes, Gabriela B; Cruz, Lucas A; Nister, Nilder; Navarro, Tulio P; Bath, Jonathan; Dardik, Alan

2018-06-01

Objectives Major and minor amputations are associated with significant rates of mortality. However, little is known about the impact of unplanned redo-amputation during the same hospitalization on outcomes. The objectives of this study were to identify the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality after both major and minor amputations as well as the results of unplanned redo-amputation on outcome. Methods Retrospective study of 342 consecutive patients who were treated with lower extremity amputation in Brazil between January 2013 and October 2014. Results The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in major compared to minor amputation (25.6% vs. 4.1%; p < 0.0001). Whereas chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and planned staged amputation predicted in-hospital mortality after major amputation, age, and congestive heart failure predicted mortality after minor amputation. The white blood cell count predicted in-hospital mortality following both major and minor amputation. However, postoperative infection predicted in-hospital mortality only following major amputation. Conclusions In-hospital mortality was high after major amputations. Unplanned redo-amputation was not a predictor of in-hospital mortality after major or minor amputation. Planned staged amputation was associated with reduced survival after major but not minor amputation. Postoperative infection predicted mortality after major amputation. Systemic diseases and postoperative white blood cell were associated with in-hospital mortality. This study suggests a possible link between a pro-inflammatory state and increased in-hospital mortality following amputation.

Asymmetric and Symmetric Dimethylarginine as Risk Markers for Total Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

PubMed Central

Schlesinger, Sabrina; Sonntag, Svenja R.

2016-01-01

Background A growing number of studies linked elevated concentrations of circulating asymmetric (ADMA) and symmetric (SDMA) dimethylarginine to mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. To summarize the evidence, we conducted a systematic review and quantified associations of ADMA and SDMA with the risks of all-cause mortality and incident CVD in meta-analyses accounting for different populations and methodological approaches of the studies. Methods Relevant studies were identified in PubMed until February 2015. We used random effect models to obtain summary relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs), comparing top versus bottom tertiles. Dose-response relations were assessed by restricted cubic spline regression models and potential non-linearity was evaluated using a likelihood ratio test. Heterogeneity between subgroups was assessed by meta-regression analysis. Results For ADMA, 34 studies (total n = 32,428) investigating associations with all-cause mortality (events = 5,035) and 30 studies (total n = 30,624) investigating the association with incident CVD (events = 3,396) were included. The summary RRs (95%CI) for all-cause mortality were 1.52 (1.37–1.68) and for CVD 1.33 (1.22–1.45), comparing high versus low ADMA concentrations. Slight differences were observed across study populations and methodological approaches, with the strongest association of ADMA being reported with all-cause mortality in critically ill patients. For SDMA, 17 studies (total n = 18,163) were included for all-cause mortality (events = 2,903), and 13 studies (total n = 16,807) for CVD (events = 1,534). High vs. low levels of SDMA, were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality [summary RR (95%CI): 1.31 (1.18–1.46)] and CVD [summary RR (95%CI): 1.36 (1.10–1.68) Strongest associations were observed in general population samples. Conclusions The dimethylarginines ADMA and SDMA are independent risk markers for all-cause mortality and CVD across different populations and methodological approaches. PMID:27812151

Psychosocial and socioeconomic determinants of cardiovascular mortality in Eastern Europe: A multicentre prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Kubinova, Ruzena; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Marmot, Michael; Bobak, Martin

2017-01-01

Background Eastern European countries have some of the highest rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, much of which cannot be adequately accounted for by conventional CVD risk factors. Psychosocial and socioeconomic factors may affect risk of CVD, but relatively few studies on this issue have been undertaken in Eastern Europe. We investigated whether various psychosocial factors are associated with CVD mortality independently from each other and whether they can help explain differences in CVD mortality between Eastern European populations. Methods Participants were from the Health, Alcohol and Psychological factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) cohort study in Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic, including a total of 20,867 men and women aged 43–74 years and free of CVD at baseline examination during 2002–2005. Participants were followed-up for CVD mortality after linkage to national mortality registries for a median of 7.2 years. Results During the follow-up, 556 participants died from CVD. After mutual adjustment, six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with increased risk of CVD death: unemployment, low material amenities, depression, being single, infrequent contacts with friends or relatives. The hazard ratios [HRs] for these six factors ranged between 1.26 [95% confidence interval 1.14–1.40] and 1.81 [95% confidence interval 1.24–2.64], fully adjusted for each other, and conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Population-attributable fractions ranged from 8% [4%–13%] to 22% [11%–31%] for each factor, when measured on average across the three cohorts. However, the prevalence of psychosocial and socioeconomic risk factors and their HRs were similar between the three countries. Altogether, these factors could not explain why participants from Russia had higher CVD mortality when compared to participants from Poland/Czech Republic. Limitations of this study include measurement error that could lead to residual confounding; and the possibilities for reverse causation and/or unmeasured confounding from observational studies to lead to associations that are not causal in nature. Conclusions Six psychosocial and socioeconomic factors were associated with cardiovascular mortality, independent of each other. Differences in mortality between cohorts from Russia versus Poland or Check Republic remained unexplained. PMID:29211726

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

PubMed Central

Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

2016-01-01

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010-2012.

PubMed

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Hand, Karen; Kelton, David F

2015-11-27

Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 °C or above, are an increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario. Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Heat stress indices (HSIs) are generally based on temperature and humidity and provide a relative measure of discomfort which can be used to predict increased risk of on-farm dairy cow mortality. In what follows, the heat stress distribution was described over space and presented with maps. Similarly, on-farm mortality was described and mapped. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that heat waves and related HSI increases during 2010-2012 were associated with increased on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Mortality records and farm locations for all farms registered in the CanWest Dairy Herd Improvement Program in Southern Ontario were retrieved for 3 heat waves and 6 three-day control periods from 2010 to 2012. A random sample of controls (2:1) was taken from the data set to create a risk-based hybrid design. On-farm heat stress was estimated using data from 37 weather stations and subsequently interpolated across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. A Poisson regression model was applied to assess the on-farm mortality in relation to varying levels of the HSI. For every one unit increase in HSI the on-farm mortality rate across Southern Ontario increases by 1.03 times (CI95% (IRR) = (1.025,1.035); p = ≤ 0.001). With a typical 8.6 unit increase in HSI from a control period to a heat wave, mortality rates are predicted to increase by 1.27 times. Southern Ontario was affected by heat waves, as demonstrated by high levels of heat stress and increased on-farm mortality. Farmers should be aware of these risks, and informed of appropriate methods to mitigate such risks.

Self-esteem and Mortality: Prospective Evidence from a Population-based Study

PubMed Central

STAMATAKIS, KATHERINE A.; LYNCH, JOHN; EVERSON, SUSAN A.; RAGHUNATHAN, TRIVELLORE; SALONEN, JUKKA T.; KAPLAN, GEORGE A.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE Self-esteem is considered to be importantly associated with both psychosocial states such as depression as well as physical health. There are no population-based studies that examine the association between self-esteem and mortality. The objective of this study was to assess whether low self-esteem was prospectively associated with increased risk of death in a population-based sample of Finnish men. METHODS A sample of 2682 male residents of Kuopio, Finland were interviewed and followed prospectively as part of the Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study (KIHD). Characteristics of the KIHD sample at baseline included self-esteem, measured by the Rosenberg ten-item scale, socioeconomic factors, behavioral risk factors, other psychosocial characteristics, and prevalent diseases. Mortality was ascertained through linkage to the Finnish national death registry. We assessed the relationship between self-esteem and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS Low self-esteem was associated with a two-fold [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.3–3.2] increase in age-adjusted mortality. This relationship was partially explained by behavioral and socioeconomic factors, and prevalent diseases, and fully explained by other psychosocial characteristics (hopelessness, depression, cynical hostility, and sullenness). When adjusted for hopelessness alone there was no increased risk associated with low self-esteem (HR = 1.3, 95% CI = 0.8–2.2). CONCLUSIONS This study found no association between self-esteem and all-cause mortality after adjustment for other psychosocial characteristics, primarily hopelessness. Our understanding of the observed relationships between some psychosocial factors and mortality may be improved by simultaneous measurement of multiple psychosocial domains, thus diminishing the potential for residual confounding. PMID:14664781

The association of weather and mortality in Bangladesh from 1983–2009

PubMed Central

Alam, Nurul; Begum, Dilruba; Streatfield, Peter Kim

2012-01-01

Introduction The association of weather and mortality have not been widely studied in subtropical monsoon regions, particularly in Bangladesh. This study aims to assess the association of weather and mortality (measured with temperature and rainfall), adjusting for time trend and seasonal patterns in Abhoynagar, Bangladesh. Material and methods A sample vital registration system (SVRS) was set up in 1982 to facilitate operational research in family planning and maternal and child health. SVRS provided data on death counts and population from 1983–2009. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department provided data on daily temperature and rainfall for the same period. Time series Poisson regression with cubic spline functions was used, allowing for over-dispersion, including lagged weather parameters, and adjusting for time trends and seasonal patterns. Analysis was carried out using R statistical software. Results Both weekly mean temperature and rainfall showed strong seasonal patterns. After adjusting for seasonal pattern and time trend, weekly mean temperatures (lag 0) below the 25th percentile and between the 25th and 75th percentiles were associated with increased mortality risk, particularly in females and adults aged 20–59 years by 2.3–2.4% for every 1°C decrease. Temperature above the 75th percentile did not increase the risk. Every 1 mm increase in rainfall up to 14 mm of weekly average rainfall over lag 0–4 weeks was associated with decreased mortality risks. Rainfall above 14 mm was associated with increased mortality risk. Conclusion The relationships between temperature, rainfall and mortality reveal the importance of understanding the current factors contributing to adaptation and acclimatization, and how these can be enhanced to reduce negative impacts from weather. PMID:23195512

Relationship between glycated hemoglobin, Intensive Care Unit admission blood sugar and glucose control with ICU mortality in critically ill patients

PubMed Central

Mahmoodpoor, Ata; Hamishehkar, Hadi; Shadvar, Kamran; Beigmohammadi, Mohammadtaghi; Iranpour, Afshin; Sanaie, Sarvin

2016-01-01

Background and Aims: The association between hyperglycemia and mortality is believed to be influenced by the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM). In this study, we evaluated the effect of preexisting hyperglycemia on the association between acute blood glucose management and mortality in critically ill patients. The primary objective of the study was the relationship between HbA1c and mortality in critically ill patients. Secondary objectives of the study were relationship between Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission blood glucose and glucose control during ICU stay with mortality in critically ill patients. Materials and Methods: Five hundred patients admitted to two ICUs were enrolled. Blood sugar and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) concentrations on ICU admission were measured. Age, sex, history of DM, comorbidities, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, sequential organ failure assessment score, hypoglycemic episodes, drug history, mortality, and development of acute kidney injury and liver failure were noted for all patients. Results: Without considering the history of diabetes, nonsurvivors had significantly higher HbA1c values compared to survivors (7.25 ± 1.87 vs. 6.05 ± 1.22, respectively, P < 0.001). Blood glucose levels in ICU admission showed a significant correlation with risk of death (P < 0.006, confidence interval [CI]: 1.004–1.02, relative risk [RR]: 1.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that HbA1c increased the risk of death; with each increase in HbA1c level, the risk of death doubled. However, this relationship was not statistically significant (P: 0.161, CI: 0.933–1.58, RR: 1.2). Conclusions: Acute hyperglycemia significantly affects mortality in the critically ill patients; this relation is also influenced by chronic hyperglycemia. PMID:27076705

Macrosomia, Perinatal and Infant Mortality in Cree Communities in Quebec, 1996-2010

PubMed Central

Xiao, Lin; Zhang, Dan-Li; Torrie, Jill; Auger, Nathalie; McHugh, Nancy Gros-Louis; Luo, Zhong-Cheng

2016-01-01

Background Cree births in Quebec are characterized by the highest reported prevalence of macrosomia (~35%) in the world. It is unclear whether Cree births are at greater elevated risk of perinatal and infant mortality than other First Nations relative to non-Aboriginal births in Quebec, and if macrosomia may be related. Methods This was a population-based retrospective birth cohort study using the linked birth-infant death database for singleton births to mothers from Cree (n = 5,340), other First Nations (n = 10,810) and non-Aboriginal (n = 229,960) communities in Quebec, 1996–2010. Community type was ascertained by residential postal code and municipality name. The primary outcomes were perinatal and infant mortality. Results Macrosomia (birth weight for gestational age >90th percentile) was substantially more frequent in Cree (38.0%) and other First Nations (21.9%) vs non-Aboriginal (9.4%) communities. Comparing Cree and other First Nations vs non-Aboriginal communities, perinatal mortality rates were 1.52 (95% confidence intervals 1.17, 1.98) and 1.34 (1.10, 1.64) times higher, and infant mortality rates 2.27 (1.71, 3.02) and 1.49 (1.16, 1.91) times higher, respectively. The risk elevations in perinatal and infant death in Cree communities attenuated after adjusting for maternal characteristics (age, education, marital status, parity), but became greater after further adjustment for birth weight (small, appropriate, or large for gestational age). Conclusions Cree communities had greater risk elevations in perinatal and infant mortality than other First Nations relative to non-Aboriginal communities in Quebec. High prevalence of macrosomia did not explain the elevated risk of perinatal and infant mortality in Cree communities. PMID:27517613

Geographical Inequalities and Social and Environmental Risk Factors for Under-Five Mortality in Ghana in 2000 and 2010: Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Census Data

PubMed Central

Arku, Raphael E.; Bennett, James E.; Agyeman-Duah, Kofi; Mintah, Samilia E.; Spengler, John D.; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel

2016-01-01

Background Under-five mortality is declining in Ghana and many other countries. Very few studies have measured under-five mortality—and its social and environmental risk factors—at fine spatial resolutions, which is relevant for policy purposes. Our aim was to estimate under-five mortality and its social and environmental risk factors at the district level in Ghana. Methods and Findings We used 10% random samples of Ghana’s 2000 and 2010 National Population and Housing Censuses. We applied indirect demographic methods and a Bayesian spatial model to the information on total number of children ever born and children surviving to estimate under-five mortality (probability of dying by 5 y of age, 5q0) for each of Ghana’s 110 districts. We also used the census data to estimate the distributions of households or persons in each district in terms of fuel used for cooking, sanitation facility, drinking water source, and parental education. Median district 5q0 declined from 99 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 70 in 2010. The decline ranged from <5% in some northern districts, where 5q0 had been higher in 2000, to >40% in southern districts, where it had been lower in 2000, exacerbating existing inequalities. Primary education increased in men and women, and more households had access to improved water and sanitation and cleaner cooking fuels. Higher use of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking was associated with lower 5q0 in multivariate analysis. Conclusions Under-five mortality has declined in all of Ghana’s districts, but the cross-district inequality in mortality has increased. There is a need for additional data, including on healthcare, and additional environmental and socioeconomic measurements, to understand the reasons for the variations in mortality levels and trends. PMID:27327774

Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

Do causal concentration-response functions exist? A critical review of associational and causal relations between fine particulate matter and mortality.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2017-08-01

Concentration-response (C-R) functions relating concentrations of pollutants in ambient air to mortality risks or other adverse health effects provide the basis for many public health risk assessments, benefits estimates for clean air regulations, and recommendations for revisions to existing air quality standards. The assumption that C-R functions relating levels of exposure and levels of response estimated from historical data usefully predict how future changes in concentrations would change risks has seldom been carefully tested. This paper critically reviews literature on C-R functions for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality risks. We find that most of them describe historical associations rather than valid causal models for predicting effects of interventions that change concentrations. The few papers that explicitly attempt to model causality rely on unverified modeling assumptions, casting doubt on their predictions about effects of interventions. A large literature on modern causal inference algorithms for observational data has been little used in C-R modeling. Applying these methods to publicly available data from Boston and the South Coast Air Quality Management District around Los Angeles shows that C-R functions estimated for one do not hold for the other. Changes in month-specific PM2.5 concentrations from one year to the next do not help to predict corresponding changes in average elderly mortality rates in either location. Thus, the assumption that estimated C-R relations predict effects of pollution-reducing interventions may not be true. Better causal modeling methods are needed to better predict how reducing air pollution would affect public health.

A Comparison of Mortality Rates in a Large Population of Smokers and Non-smokers: based on the Presence or Absence of Coronary Artery Calcification

PubMed Central

McEvoy, John W; Blaha, Michael J; Rivera, Juan J; Budoff, Matthew J; Khan, Atif N; Shaw, Leslee J; Berman, Daniel S; Raggi, Paolo; Min, James K; Rumberger, John A; Callister, Tracy Q; Blumenthal, Roger S.; Nasir, Khurram

2015-01-01

Objectives To further study the interplay between smoking status, Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) and all-cause mortality. Background Prior studies have not directly compared the relative prognostic impact of CAC in smokers versus non-smokers. In particular, while zero CAC is a known favorable prognostic-marker, whether smokers without CAC have as good a prognosis as non-smokers without CAC is unknown. Given computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer appears effective in smokers, the relative prognostic implications of visualizing any CAC versus no CAC on such screening also deserve study. Methods Our study cohort consisted of 44,042 asymptomatic individuals referred for non-contrast cardiac CT (age 54±11 years, 54% males). Subjects were followed for a mean of 5.6 years. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Results Approximately 14% (n=6020) of subjects were active smokers at enrollment. There were 901 deaths (2.05%) overall, with increased mortality in smokers vs. non-smokers (4.3% vs. 1.7%, p<0.0001). Smoking remained a risk factor for mortality across increasing strata of CAC scores (1-100, 101-400, and >400). In multivariable analysis within these strata, we found mortality hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.8 (95% CI, 2.8-5.2), 3.5 (2.6-4.9), and 2.7 (2.1-3.5), respectively, in smokers compared to nonsmokers. At each stratum of elevated CAC score, mortality in smokers was consistently higher than mortality in non-smokers from the CAC stratum above. However, among the 19,898 individuals with CAC=0, the mortality HR for smokers without CAC was 3.6 (95% CI, 2.3-5.7), compared to non-smokers without CAC. Conclusion Smoking is a risk factor for death across the entire spectrum of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. Smokers with any coronary calcification are at significantly increased future mortality risk than smokers without CAC. However, the absence of CAC may not be as useful a “negative risk factor” in active smokers; as this group has mortality rates similar to non-smokers with mild to moderate atherosclerosis. PMID:23058072

The microbiological profile and presence of bloodstream infection influence mortality rates in necrotizing fasciitis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a life threatening infectious disease with a high mortality rate. We carried out a microbiological characterization of the causative pathogens. We investigated the correlation of mortality in NF with bloodstream infection and with the presence of co-morbidities. Methods In this retrospective study, we analyzed 323 patients who presented with necrotizing fasciitis at two different institutions. Bloodstream infection (BSI) was defined as a positive blood culture result. The patients were categorized as survivors and non-survivors. Eleven clinically important variables which were statistically significant by univariate analysis were selected for multivariate regression analysis and a stepwise logistic regression model was developed to determine the association between BSI and mortality. Results Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that patients with hypotension, heart disease, liver disease, presence of Vibrio spp. in wound cultures, presence of fungus in wound cultures, and presence of Streptococcus group A, Aeromonas spp. or Vibrio spp. in blood cultures, had a significantly higher risk of in-hospital mortality. Our multivariate logistic regression analysis showed a higher risk of mortality in patients with pre-existing conditions like hypotension, heart disease, and liver disease. Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that presence of Vibrio spp in wound cultures, and presence of Streptococcus Group A in blood cultures were associated with a high risk of mortality while debridement > = 3 was associated with improved survival. Conclusions Mortality in patients with necrotizing fasciitis was significantly associated with the presence of Vibrio in wound cultures and Streptococcus group A in blood cultures. PMID:21693053

Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol was Inversely Associated with 3-Year All-Cause Mortality among Chinese Oldest Old: Data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey

PubMed Central

LV, Yue-Bin; YIN, Zhao-Xue; CHEI, Choy-Lye; QIAN, Han-Zhu; Kraus, Virginia Byers; ZHANG, Juan; Brasher, Melanie Sereny; SHI, Xiao-Ming; Matchar, David Bruce; ZENG, Yi

2015-01-01

Objective Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a risk factor for survival in middle-aged individuals, but conflicting evidence exists on the relationship between LDL-C and all-cause mortality among the elderly. The goal of this study was to assess the relationship between LDL-C and all-cause mortality among Chinese oldest old (aged 80 and older) in a prospective cohort study. Methods LDL-C concentration was measured at baseline and all-cause mortality was calculated over a 3-year period. Multiple statistical models were used to adjust for demographic and biological covariates. Results During three years of follow-up, 447 of 935 participants died, and the overall all-cause mortality was 49.8%. Each 1 mmol/L increase of LDL-C concentration corresponded to a 19% decrease in 3-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71–0.92). The crude HR for abnormally higher LDL-C concentration (≥3.37 mmol/L) was 0.65 (0.41–1.03); and the adjusted HR was statistically significant around 0.60 (0.37–0.95) when adjusted for different sets of confounding factors. Results of sensitivity analysis also showed a significant association between higher LDL-C and lower mortality risk. Conclusions Among the Chinese oldest old, higher LDL-C level was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality. Our findings suggested the necessity of re-evaluating the optimal level of LDL-C among the oldest old. PMID:25602855

Long-term mortality of acetaminophen poisoning: a nationwide population-based cohort study with 10-year follow-up in Taiwan.

PubMed

Huang, Hung-Sheng; Ho, Chung-Han; Weng, Shih-Feng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Su, Shih-Bin; Lin, Hung-Jung; Huang, Chien-Cheng

2018-01-08

The long-term mortality of acetaminophen (APAP) poisoning has not yet been well studied; hence, we conducted this study to gain understanding of this issue. We conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study by identifying 3235 participants with APAP poisoning and 9705 participants without APAP poisoning in Taiwan between 2003 and 2012 in the Nationwide Poisoning Database and Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000. Participants with APAP poisoning and control subjects were compared for the risk of all-cause mortality by follow-up until 2013. Two hundred forty-one participants with APAP poisoning (7.5%) and ninety-four control subjects (1.0%) died during the follow-up. Participants with APAP poisoning had a higher risk of all-cause mortality than the control subjects (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 8.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.3-10.2), especially in the subgroup aged 20 years and younger (IRR, 27.3; 95% CI, 3.5-215.5) and in the first 12 months after poisoning (IRR, 16.0; 95% CI, 9.9-25.7). The increased risk of all-cause mortality was found even up to 2 years after the index poisoning. APAP poisoning was associated with increased long-term mortality. Early referral for intensive aftercare and associated interventions are suggested; however, further studies of the method are needed for clarification.

Clinical Utility of Five Genetic Variants for Predicting Prostate Cancer Risk and Mortality

PubMed Central

Salinas, Claudia A.; Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Kwon, Erika M.; FitzGerald, Liesel; Lin, Daniel W.; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Feng, Ziding; Stanford, Janet L.

2009-01-01

Background A recent report suggests that the combination of five single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 8q24, 17q12, 17q24.3 and a family history of the disease may predict risk of prostate cancer. The present study tests the performance of these factors in prediction models for prostate cancer risk and prostate cancer-specific mortality. Methods SNPs were genotyped in population-based samples from Caucasians in King County, Washington. Incident cases (n=1308), aged 35–74, were compared to age-matched controls (n=1266) using logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) associated with genotypes and family history. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios for prostate cancer-specific mortality according to genotypes. Results The combination of SNP genotypes and family history was significantly associated with prostate cancer risk (ptrend=1.5 × 10−20). Men with ≥ five risk factors had an OR of 4.9 (95% CI 1.6 to 18.5) compared to men with none. However, this combination of factors did not improve the ROC curve after accounting for known risk predictors (i.e., age, serum PSA, family history). Neither the individual nor combined risk factors was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality. Conclusion Genotypes for five SNPs plus family history are associated with a significant elevation in risk for prostate cancer and may explain up to 45% of prostate cancer in our population. However, they do not improve prediction models for assessing who is at risk of getting or dying from the disease, once known risk or prognostic factors are taken into account. Thus, this SNP panel may have limited clinical utility. PMID:19058137

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study

PubMed Central

Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F.; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M.; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L.; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M.; Ascaso, Juan F.; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

2017-01-01

Introduction The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. Methods This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008–2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. Results 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. Conclusions In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers. PMID:29045483

Fatty acids linked to cardiovascular mortality are associated with risk factors

PubMed Central

Ebbesson, Sven O. E.; Voruganti, Venkata S.; Higgins, Paul B.; Fabsitz, Richard R.; Ebbesson, Lars O.; Laston, Sandra; Harris, William S.; Kennish, John; Umans, Benjamin D.; Wang, Hong; Devereux, Richard B.; Okin, Peter M.; Weissman, Neil J.; MacCluer, Jean W.; Umans, Jason G.; Howard, Barbara V.

2015-01-01

Background Although saturated fatty acids (FAs) have been linked to cardiovascular mortality, it is not clear whether this outcome is attributable solely to their effects on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) or whether other risk factors are also associated with FAs. The Western Alaskan Native population, with its rapidly changing lifestyles, shift in diet from unsaturated to saturated fatty acids and dramatic increase in cardiovascular disease (CVD), presents an opportunity to elucidate any associations between specific FAs and known CVD risk factors. Objective We tested the hypothesis that the specific FAs previously identified as related to CVD mortality are also associated with individual CVD risk factors. Methods In this community-based, cross-sectional study, relative proportions of FAs in plasma and red blood cell membranes were compared with CVD risk factors in a sample of 758 men and women aged ≥35 years. Linear regression analyses were used to analyze relations between specific FAs and CVD risk factors (LDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body mass index, fasting glucose and fasting insulin, 2-hour glucose and 2-hour insulin). Results The specific saturated FAs previously identified as related to CVD mortality, the palmitic and myristic acids, were adversely associated with most CVD risk factors, whereas unsaturated linoleic acid (18:2n-6) and the marine n-3 FAs were not associated or were beneficially associated with CVD risk factors. Conclusions The results suggest that CVD risk factors are more extensively affected by individual FAs than hitherto recognized, and that risk for CVD, MI and stroke can be reduced by reducing the intake of palmitate, myristic acid and simple carbohydrates and improved by greater intake of linoleic acid and marine n-3 FAs. PMID:26274054

The Surgical Mortality Probability Model: derivation and validation of a simple risk prediction rule for noncardiac surgery.

PubMed

Glance, Laurent G; Lustik, Stewart J; Hannan, Edward L; Osler, Turner M; Mukamel, Dana B; Qian, Feng; Dick, Andrew W

2012-04-01

To develop a 30-day mortality risk index for noncardiac surgery that can be used to communicate risk information to patients and guide clinical management at the "point-of-care," and that can be used by surgeons and hospitals to internally audit their quality of care. Clinicians rely on the Revised Cardiac Risk Index to quantify the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Because mortality from noncardiac causes accounts for many perioperative deaths, there is also a need for a simple bedside risk index to predict 30-day all-cause mortality after noncardiac surgery. Retrospective cohort study of 298,772 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery during 2005 to 2007 using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. The 9-point S-MPM (Surgical Mortality Probability Model) 30-day mortality risk index was derived empirically and includes three risk factors: ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) physical status, emergency status, and surgery risk class. Patients with ASA physical status I, II, III, IV or V were assigned either 0, 2, 4, 5, or 6 points, respectively; intermediate- or high-risk procedures were assigned 1 or 2 points, respectively; and emergency procedures were assigned 1 point. Patients with risk scores less than 5 had a predicted risk of mortality less than 0.50%, whereas patients with a risk score of 5 to 6 had a risk of mortality between 1.5% and 4.0%. Patients with a risk score greater than 6 had risk of mortality more than 10%. S-MPM exhibited excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.897) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 13.0, P = 0.023) in the validation data set. Thirty-day mortality after noncardiac surgery can be accurately predicted using a simple and accurate risk score based on information readily available at the bedside. This risk index may play a useful role in facilitating shared decision making, developing and implementing risk-reduction strategies, and guiding quality improvement efforts.

Perforated Duodenal Ulcer in High Risk Patients: Is Percutaneous Drainage Justified?

PubMed Central

Saber, Aly; Gad, Mohammad A; Ellabban, Gouda M

2012-01-01

Background: Conservative treatment was recommended as the treatment of choice in perforated acute peptic ulcer. Here, we adjunct percutaneous peritoneal drainage with nonoperative conservative treatment in high risk elderly patients with perforated duodenal ulcer. Aim: The work was to study the efficacy of percutaneous peritoneal drainage under local anesthesia supported by conservative measures in high risk elderly patients, according to the American Society of Anesthesiologists grading, with perforated duodenal ulcer. Patients and Methods: Twenty four high risk patients with age >65 years having associated medical illness with evidence of perforated duodenal ulcer. Results: The overall morbidity and mortality were comparable with those treated by conservative measures alone. Conclusion: In high risk patients with perforated peptic ulcer and established peritonitis, percutaneous peritoneal drainage under local anesthesia seems to be effective with least operative trauma and mortality rate. PMID:22393546

Ambient temperature and cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Moghadamnia, Mohammad Taghi; Keshtkar, Abbas; Naddafi, Kazem; Yekaninejad, Mir Saeed

2017-01-01

Introduction Our study aims at identifying and quantifying the relationship between the cold and heat exposure and the risk of cardiovascular mortality through a systematic review and meta-analysis. Material and Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. Peer-reviewed studies about the temperature and cardiovascular mortality were retrieved in the MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Scopus databases from January 2000 up to the end of 2015. The pooled effect sizes of short-term effect were calculated for the heat exposure and cold exposure separately. Also, we assessed the dose–response relationship of temperature-cardiovascular mortality by a change in units of latitudes, longitude, lag days and annual mean temperature by meta-regression. Result After screening the titles, abstracts and full texts, a total of 26 articles were included in the meta-analysis. The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased by 5% (RR, 1.055; 95% CI [1.050–1.060]) for the cold exposure and 1.3% (RR, 1.013; 95% CI [1.011–1.015]) for the heat exposure. The short-term effects of cold and heat exposure on the risk of cardiovascular mortality in males were 3.8% (RR, 1.038; 95% CI [1.034–1.043]) and 1.1%( RR, 1.011; 95% CI [1.009–1.013]) respectively. Moreover, the effects of cold and heat exposure on risk of cardiovascular mortality in females were 4.1% (RR, 1.041; 95% CI [1.037–1.045]) and 1.4% (RR, 1.014; 95% CI [1.011–1.017]) respectively. In the elderly, it was at an 8.1% increase and a 6% increase in the heat and cold exposure, respectively. The greatest risk of cardiovascular mortality in cold temperature was in the 14 lag days (RR, 1.09; 95% CI [1.07–1.010]) and in hot temperatures in the seven lag days (RR, 1.14; 95% CI [1.09–1.17]). The significant dose–response relationship of latitude and longitude in cold exposure with cardiovascular mortality was found. The results showed that the risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with each degree increased significantly in latitude and longitude in cold exposure (0.2%, 95% CI [0.006–0.035]) and (0.07%, 95% CI [0.0003–0.014]) respectively. The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with each degree increase in latitude in heat exposure (0.07%, 95% CI [0.0008–0.124]). Conclusion Our findings indicate that the increase and decrease in ambient temperature had a relationship with the cardiovascular mortality. To prevent the temperature- related mortality, persons with cardiovascular disease and the elderly should be targeted. The review has been registered with PROSPERO (registration number CRD42016037673). PMID:28791197

Impact of Competing Risk of Mortality on Association of Weight Loss with Risk of Central Body Fractures in Older Men: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Ensrud, Kristine E.; Harrison, Stephanie L.; Cauley, Jane A.; Langsetmo, Lisa; Schousboe, John T.; Kado, Deborah M.; Gourlay, Margaret L.; Lyons, Jennifer G.; Fredman, Lisa; Napoli, Nicolas; Crandall, Carolyn J.; Lewis, Cora E.; Orwoll, Eric S.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Cawthon, Peggy M.

2017-01-01

To determine the association of weight loss with risk of clinical fractures at the hip, spine and pelvis (central body fractures [CBF]) in older men with and without accounting for the competing risk of mortality, we used data from 4,523 men (mean age 77.5 years). Weight change between baseline and follow-up (mean 4.5 years between examinations) was categorized as moderate loss (loss ≥10%), mild loss (loss 5% to <10%), stable (<5% change) or gain (gain ≥5%). Participants were contacted every 4 months after the follow-up examination to ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates) and ask about fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports). Absolute probability of CBF by weight change category was estimated using traditional Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence function accounting for competing mortality risk. Risk of CBF by weight change category was determined using conventional Cox proportional hazards regression and subdistribution hazards models with death as a competing risk. During an average of 8 years, 337 men (7.5%) experienced CBF and 1,569 (34.7%) died before experiencing this outcome. Among men with moderate weight loss, CBF probability was 6.8% at 5 years and 16.9% at 10 years using Kaplan-Meier vs. 5.7% at 5 years and 10.2% at 10 years using a competing risk approach. Men with moderate weight loss compared with those with stable weight had a 1.6-fold higher adjusted risk of CBF (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.06–2.38) using Cox models that was substantially attenuated in models accounting for competing mortality risk and no longer significant (subdistribution HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.77–1.75). Results were similar in analyses substituting hip fracture for CBF. Older men with weight loss who survive are at increased risk of CBF, including hip fracture. However, ignoring the competing mortality risk among men with weight loss substantially overestimates their longterm fracture probability and relative fracture risk. PMID:27739103

Impact of Competing Risk of Mortality on Association of Weight Loss With Risk of Central Body Fractures in Older Men: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Ensrud, Kristine E; Harrison, Stephanie L; Cauley, Jane A; Langsetmo, Lisa; Schousboe, John T; Kado, Deborah M; Gourlay, Margaret L; Lyons, Jennifer G; Fredman, Lisa; Napoli, Nicolas; Crandall, Carolyn J; Lewis, Cora E; Orwoll, Eric S; Stefanick, Marcia L; Cawthon, Peggy M

2017-03-01

To determine the association of weight loss with risk of clinical fractures at the hip, spine, and pelvis (central body fractures [CBFs]) in older men with and without accounting for the competing risk of mortality, we used data from 4523 men (mean age 77.5 years). Weight change between baseline and follow-up (mean 4.5 years between examinations) was categorized as moderate loss (loss ≥10%), mild loss (loss 5% to <10%), stable (<5% change) or gain (gain ≥5%). Participants were contacted every 4 months after the follow-up examination to ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates) and ask about fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports). Absolute probability of CBF by weight change category was estimated using traditional Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence function accounting for competing mortality risk. Risk of CBF by weight change category was determined using conventional Cox proportional hazards regression and subdistribution hazards models with death as a competing risk. During an average of 8 years, 337 men (7.5%) experienced CBF and 1569 (34.7%) died before experiencing this outcome. Among men with moderate weight loss, CBF probability was 6.8% at 5 years and 16.9% at 10 years using Kaplan-Meier versus 5.7% at 5 years and 10.2% at 10 years using a competing risk approach. Men with moderate weight loss compared with those with stable weight had a 1.6-fold higher adjusted risk of CBF (HR 1.59; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.38) using Cox models that was substantially attenuated in models accounting for competing mortality risk and no longer significant (subdistribution HR 1.16; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.75). Results were similar in analyses substituting hip fracture for CBF. Older men with weight loss who survive are at increased risk of CBF, including hip fracture. However, ignoring the competing mortality risk among men with weight loss substantially overestimates their long-term fracture probability and relative fracture risk. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Risk factors that predict mortality in patients with blunt chest wall trauma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Battle, Ceri E; Hutchings, Hayley; Evans, Phillip A

2012-01-01

The risk factors for mortality following blunt chest wall trauma have neither been well established or summarised. To summarise the risk factors for mortality in blunt chest wall trauma patients based on available evidence in the literature. A systematic review of English and non-English articles using MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from their introduction until May 2010. Additional studies were identified by hand-searching bibliographies and contacting relevant clinical experts. Grey literature was sought by searching abstracts from all Emergency Medicine conferences. Broad search terms and inclusion criteria were used to reduce the number of missed studies. A two step study selection process was used. All published and unpublished observational studies were included if they investigated estimates of association between a risk factor and mortality for blunt chest wall trauma patients. A two step data extraction process using pre-defined data fields, including study quality indicators. Each study was appraised using a previously designed quality assessment tool and the STROBE checklist. Where sufficient data were available, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Mantel-Haenszel method for the risk factors investigated. The I(2) statistic was calculated for combined studies in order to assess heterogeneity. Age, number of rib fractures, presence of pre-existing disease and pneumonia were found to be related to mortality in 29 identified studies. Combined odds ratio of 1.98 (1.86-2.11, 95% CI), 2.02 (1.89-2.15, 95% CI), 2.43 (1.03-5.72, 95% CI) and 5.24 (3.51-7.82) for mortality were calculated for blunt chest wall trauma patients aged 65 years or more, with three or more rib fractures, pre-existing conditions and pneumonia respectively. The risk factors for mortality in patients sustaining blunt chest wall trauma were a patient age of 65 years or more, three or more rib fractures and the presence of pre-existing disease especially cardiopulmonary disease. The development of pneumonia post injury was also a significant risk factor for mortality. As a result of the variable quality in the studies, the results of the selected studies should be interpreted with caution. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality rates and risk factors for emergent open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms in the endovascular era.

PubMed

Pecoraro, Felice; Gloekler, Steffen; Mader, Caecilia E; Roos, Malgorzata; Chaykovska, Lyubov; Veith, Frank J; Cayne, Neal S; Mangialardi, Nicola; Neff, Thomas; Lachat, Mario

2018-03-01

The background of this paper is to report the mortality at 30 and 90 days and at mean follow-up after open abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) emergent repair and to identify predictive risk factors for 30- and 90-day mortality. Between 1997 and 2002, 104 patients underwent emergent AAA open surgery. Symptomatic and ruptured AAAs were observed, respectively, in 21 and 79% of cases. Mean patient age was 70 (SD 9.2) years. Mean aneurysm maximal diameter was 7.4 (SD 1.6) cm. Primary endpoints were 30- and 90-day mortality. Significant mortality-related risk factor identification was the secondary endpoint. Open repair trend and its related perioperative mortality with a per-year analysis and a correlation subanalysis to identify predictive mortality factor were performed. Mean follow-up time was 23 (SD 23) months. Overall, 30-day mortality was 30%. Significant mortality-related risk factors were the use of computed tomography (CT) as a preoperative diagnostic tool, AAA rupture, preoperative shock, intraoperative cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), use of aortic balloon occlusion, intraoperative massive blood transfusion (MBT), and development of abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS). Previous abdominal surgery was identified as a protective risk factor. The mortality rate at 90 days was 44%. Significant mortality-related risk factors were AAA rupture, aortocaval fistula, peripheral artery disease (PAD), preoperative shock, CPR, MBT, and ACS. The mortality rate at follow-up was 45%. Correlation analysis showed that MBT, shock, and ACS are the most relevant predictive mortality factor at 30 and 90 days. During the transition period from open to endovascular repair, open repair mortality outcomes remained comparable with other contemporary data despite a selection bias for higher risk patients. MBT, shock, and ACS are the most pronounced predictive mortality risk factors.

The ADOPT-LC score: a novel predictive index of in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following surgical procedures, based on a national survey.

PubMed

Sato, Masaya; Tateishi, Ryosuke; Yasunaga, Hideo; Horiguchi, Hiromasa; Matsui, Hiroki; Yoshida, Haruhiko; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Koike, Kazuhiko

2017-03-01

We aimed to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following major surgical procedures using a large sample of patients derived from a Japanese nationwide administrative database. We enrolled 2197 cirrhotic patients who underwent elective (n = 1973) or emergency (n = 224) surgery. We analyzed the risk factors for postoperative mortality and established a scoring system for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients using a split-sample method. In-hospital mortality rates following elective or emergency surgery were 4.7% and 20.5%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, patient age, Child-Pugh (CP) class, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and duration of anesthesia in elective surgery were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. In emergency surgery, CP class and duration of anesthesia were significant factors. Based on multivariate analysis in the training set (n = 987), the Adequate Operative Treatment for Liver Cirrhosis (ADOPT-LC) score that used patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia to predict in-hospital mortality following elective surgery was developed. This scoring system was validated in the testing set (n = 986) and produced an area under the curve of 0.881. We also developed iOS/Android apps to calculate ADOPT-LC scores to allow easy access to the current evidence in daily clinical practice. Patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia were identified as important risk factors for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients. The ADOPT-LC score effectively predicts in-hospital mortality following elective surgery and may assist decisions regarding surgical procedures in cirrhotic patients based on a quantitative risk assessment. © 2016 The Authors Hepatology Research published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Society of Hepatology.

Analysis of Surgical Mortality for Congenital Heart Defects Using RACHS-1 Risk Score in a Brazilian Single Center

PubMed Central

Cavalcante, Candice Torres de Melo Bezerra; de Souza, Nayana Maria Gomes; Pinto Júnior, Valdester Cavalcante; Branco, Klébia Magalhães Pereira Castello; Pompeu, Ronald Guedes; Teles, Andreia Consuelo de Oliveira; Cavalcante, Rodrigo Cardoso; de Andrade, Giselle Viana

2016-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery 1 (RACHS-1) score is a simple model that can be easily applied and has been widely used for mortality comparison among pediatric cardiovascular services. It is based on the categorization of several surgical palliative or corrective procedures, which have similar mortality in the treatment of congenital heart disease. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the in-hospital mortality in pediatric patients (<18 years) submitted to cardiac surgery for congenital heart disease based on RACHS-1 score, during a 12-year period. METHODS: A retrospective date analysis was performed from January 2003 to December 2014. The survey was divided in two periods of six years long each, to check for any improvement in the results. We evaluated the numbers of procedures performed, complexity of surgery and hospital mortality. RESULTS: Three thousand and two hundred and one surgeries were performed. Of these, 3071 were able to be classified according to the score RACHS-1. Among the patients, 51.7% were male and 47.5% were younger than one year of age. The most common RACHS-1 category was 3 (35.5%). The mortality was 1.8%, 5.5%, 14.9%, 32.5% and 68.6% for category 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6, respectively. There was a significant increase in the number of surgeries (48%) and a significant reduction in the mortality in the last period analysed (13.3% in period I and 10.4% in period II; P=0.014). CONCLUSION: RACHS-1 score was a useful score for mortality risk in our service, although we are aware that other factors have an impact on the total mortality. PMID:27737404

[Evaluation of the capacity of the APR-DRG classification system to predict hospital mortality].

PubMed

De Marco, Maria Francesca; Lorenzoni, Luca; Addari, Piero; Nante, Nicola

2002-01-01

Inpatient mortality has increasingly been used as an hospital outcome measure. Comparing mortality rates across hospitals requires adjustment for patient risks before making inferences about quality of care based on patient outcomes. Therefore it is essential to dispose of well performing severity measures. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the All Patient Refined DRG system to predict inpatient mortality for congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, pneumonia and ischemic stroke. Administrative records were used in this analysis. We used two statistics methods to assess the ability of the APR-DRG to predict mortality: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (referred to as the c-statistic) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The database for the study included 19,212 discharges for stroke, pneumonia, myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure from fifteen hospital participating in the Italian APR-DRG Project. A multivariate analysis was performed to predict mortality for each condition in study using age, sex and APR-DRG risk mortality subclass as independent variables. Inpatient mortality rate ranges from 9.7% (pneumonia) to 16.7% (stroke). Model discrimination, calculated using the c-statistic, was 0.91 for myocardial infarction, 0.68 for stroke, 0.78 for pneumonia and 0.71 for congestive heart failure. The model calibration assessed using the Hosmer-Leme-show test was quite good. The performance of the APR-DRG scheme when used on Italian hospital activity records is similar to that reported in literature and it seems to improve by adding age and sex to the model. The APR-DRG system does not completely capture the effects of these variables. In some cases, the better performance might be due to the inclusion of specific complications in the risk-of-mortality subclass assignment.

Major bleeding after percutaneous coronary intervention and risk of subsequent mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kwok, Chun Shing; Rao, Sunil V; Myint, Phyo K; Keavney, Bernard; Nolan, James; Ludman, Peter F; de Belder, Mark A; Loke, Yoon K; Mamas, Mamas A

2014-01-01

Objectives To examine the relationship between periprocedural bleeding complications and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and mortality outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and study differences in the prognostic impact of different bleeding definitions. Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of PCI studies that evaluated periprocedural bleeding complications and their impact on MACEs and mortality outcomes. A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE was conducted to identify relevant studies. Data from relevant studies were extracted and random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the risk of adverse outcomes with periprocedural bleeding. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed by considering the I2 statistic. Results 42 relevant studies were identified including 533 333 patients. Meta-analysis demonstrated that periprocedural major bleeding complications was independently associated with increased risk of mortality (OR 3.31 (2.86 to 3.82), I2=80%) and MACEs (OR 3.89 (3.26 to 4.64), I2=42%). A differential impact of major bleeding as defined by different bleeding definitions on mortality outcomes was observed, in which the REPLACE-2 (OR 6.69, 95% CI 2.26 to 19.81), STEEPLE (OR 6.59, 95% CI 3.89 to 11.16) and BARC (OR 5.40, 95% CI 1.74 to 16.74) had the worst prognostic impacts while HORIZONS-AMI (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.05) had the least impact on mortality outcomes. Conclusions Major bleeding after PCI is independently associated with a threefold increase in mortality and MACEs outcomes. Different contemporary bleeding definitions have differential impacts on mortality outcomes, with 1.5–6.7-fold increases in mortality observed depending on the definition of major bleeding used. PMID:25332786

Influence of Lung Function and Sleep-disordered Breathing on All-Cause Mortality. A Community-based Study

PubMed Central

Putcha, Nirupama; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Norato, Gina; Samet, Jonathan; Quan, Stuart F.; Gottlieb, Daniel J.; Redline, Susan

2016-01-01

Rationale: Whether sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) severity and diminished lung function act synergistically to heighten the risk of adverse health outcomes remains a topic of significant debate. Objectives: The current study sought to determine whether the association between lower lung function and mortality would be stronger in those with increasing severity of SDB in a community-based cohort of middle-aged and older adults. Methods: Full montage home sleep testing and spirometry data were analyzed on 6,173 participants of the Sleep Heart Health Study. Proportional hazards models were used to calculate risk for all-cause mortality, with FEV1 and apnea–hypopnea index (AHI) as the primary exposure indicators along with several potential confounders. Measurements and Main Results: All-cause mortality rate was 26.9 per 1,000 person-years in those with SDB (AHI ≥5 events/h) and 18.2 per 1,000 person-years in those without (AHI <5 events/h). For every 200-ml decrease in FEV1, all-cause mortality increased by 11.0% in those without SDB (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.08–1.13). In contrast, for every 200-ml decrease in FEV1, all-cause mortality increased by only 6.0% in participants with SDB (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.09). Additionally, the incremental influence of lung function on all-cause mortality was less with increasing severity of SDB (P value for interaction between AHI and FEV1, 0.004). Conclusions: Lung function was associated with risk for all-cause mortality. The incremental contribution of lung function to mortality diminishes with increasing severity of SDB. PMID:27105053

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. Methods The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Results Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Conclusion Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD. PMID:22958443

Evaluating cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetes patients: an analysis based on competing risks Markov chains and additive regression models.

PubMed

Rosato, Rosalba; Ciccone, G; Bo, S; Pagano, G F; Merletti, F; Gregori, D

2007-06-01

Type 2 diabetes represents a condition significantly associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. The aims of the study are: (i) to estimate the cumulative incidence function for cause-specific mortality using Cox and Aalen model; (ii) to describe how the prediction of cardiovascular or other causes mortality changes for patients with different pattern of covariates; (iii) to show if different statistical methods may give different results. Cox and Aalen additive regression model through the Markov chain approach, are used to estimate the cause-specific hazard for cardiovascular or other causes mortality in a cohort of 2865 type 2 diabetic patients without insulin treatment. The models are compared in the estimation of the risk of death for patients of different severity. For younger patients with a better covariates profile, the Cumulative Incidence Function estimated by Cox and Aalen model was almost the same; for patients with the worst covariates profile, models gave different results: at the end of follow-up cardiovascular mortality rate estimated by Cox and Aalen model was 0.26 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.21-0.31] and 0.14 (95% CI = 0.09-0.18). Standard Cox and Aalen model capture the risk process for patients equally well with average profiles of co-morbidities. The Aalen model, in addition, is shown to be better at identifying cause-specific risk of death for patients with more severe clinical profiles. This result is relevant in the development of analytic tools for research and resource management within diabetes care.

Variation in Outcomes for Risk-Stratified Pediatric Cardiac Surgical Operations: An Analysis of the STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database

PubMed Central

Jacobs, Jeffrey Phillip; O'Brien, Sean M.; Pasquali, Sara K.; Jacobs, Marshall Lewis; Lacour-Gayet, François G.; Tchervenkov, Christo I.; Austin III, Erle H.; Pizarro, Christian; Pourmoghadam, Kamal K.; Scholl, Frank G.; Welke, Karl F.; Gaynor, J. William; Clarke, David R.; Mayer, John E.; Mavroudis, Constantine

2013-01-01

Background. We evaluated outcomes for groups of risk-stratified operations in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database to provide contemporary benchmarks and examine variation between centers. Methods. Patients undergoing surgery from 2005 to 2009 were included. Centers with more than 10% missing data were excluded. Discharge mortality and postoperative length of stay (PLOS) among patients discharged alive were calculated for groups of risk-stratified operations using the five Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery Congenital Heart Surgery mortality categories (STAT Mortality Categories). Power for analyzing between-center differences in outcome was determined for each STAT Mortality Category. Variation was evaluated using funnel plots and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Results. In this analysis of risk-stratified operations, 58,506 index operations at 73 centers were included. Overall discharge mortality (interquartile range among programs with more than 10 cases) was as follows: STAT Category 1 = 0.55% (0% to 1.0%), STAT Category 2 = 1.7% (1.0% to 2.2%), STAT Category 3 = 2.6% (1.1% to 4.4%), STAT Category 4 = 8.0% (6.3% to 11.1%), and STAT Category 5 = 18.4% (13.9% to 27.9%). Funnel plots with 95% prediction limits revealed the number of centers characterized as outliers by STAT Mortality Categories was as follows: Category 1 = 3 (4.1%), Category 2 = 1 (1.4%), Category 3 = 7 (9.7%), Category 4 = 13 (17.8%), and Category 5 = 13 (18.6%). Between-center variation in PLOS was analyzed for all STAT Categories and was greatest for STAT Category 5 operations. Conclusions. This analysis documents contemporary benchmarks for risk-stratified pediatric cardiac surgical operations grouped by STAT Mortality Categories and the range of outcomes among centers. Variation was greatest for the more complex operations. These data may aid in the design and planning of quality assessment and quality improvement initiatives. PMID:22704799

Rockall score in predicting outcomes of elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

PubMed Central

Wang, Chang-Yuan; Qin, Jian; Wang, Jing; Sun, Chang-Yi; Cao, Tao; Zhu, Dan-Dan

2013-01-01

AIM: To validate the clinical Rockall score in predicting outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) in elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken in 341 patients admitted to the emergency room and Intensive Care Unit of Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The Rockall scores were calculated, and the association between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) was assessed. Based on the Rockall scores, patients were divided into three risk categories: low risk ≤ 3, moderate risk 3-4, high risk ≥ 4, and the percentages of rebleeding/death/surgery in each risk category were compared. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to assess the validity of the Rockall system in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality of patients with AUGIB. RESULTS: A positive linear correlation between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes in terms of rebleeding, surgery and mortality was observed (r = 0.962, 0.955 and 0.946, respectively, P = 0.001). High clinical Rockall scores > 3 were associated with adverse outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and death). There was a significant correlation between high Rockall scores and the occurrence of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in the entire patient population (χ2 = 49.29, 23.10 and 27.64, respectively, P = 0.001). For rebleeding, the area under the ROC curve was 0.788 (95%CI: 0.726-0.849, P = 0.001); For surgery, the area under the ROC curve was 0.752 (95%CI: 0.679-0.825, P = 0.001) and for mortality, the area under the ROC curve was 0.787 (95%CI: 0.716-0.859, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The Rockall score is clinically useful, rapid and accurate in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality outcomes in elderly patients with AUGIB. PMID:23801840

Out of control mortality matters: the effect of perceived uncontrollable mortality risk on a health-related decision.

PubMed

Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-01-01

Prior evidence from the public health literature suggests that both control beliefs and perceived threats to life are important for health behaviour. Our previously presented theoretical model generated the more specific hypothesis that uncontrollable, but not controllable, personal mortality risk should alter the payoff from investment in health protection behaviours. We carried out three experiments to test whether altering the perceived controllability of mortality risk would affect a health-related decision. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a mortality prime could be used to alter a health-related decision: the choice between a healthier food reward (fruit) and an unhealthy alternative (chocolate). Experiment 2 demonstrated that it is the controllability of the mortality risk being primed that generates the effect, rather than mortality risk per se. Experiment 3 showed that the effect could be seen in a surreptitious experiment that was not explicitly health related. Our results suggest that perceptions about the controllability of mortality risk may be an important factor in people's health-related decisions. Thus, techniques for adjusting perceptions about mortality risk could be important tools for use in health interventions. More importantly, tackling those sources of mortality that people perceive to be uncontrollable could have a dual purpose: making neighbourhoods and workplaces safer would have the primary benefit of reducing uncontrollable mortality risk, which could lead to a secondary benefit from improved health behaviours.

National record linkage study of mortality for a large cohort of opioid users ascertained by drug treatment or criminal justice sources in England, 2005–2009

PubMed Central

Pierce, Matthias; Bird, Sheila M.; Hickman, Matthew; Millar, Tim

2015-01-01

Background Globally, opioid drug use is an important cause of premature mortality. In many countries, opioid using populations are ageing. The current study investigates mortality in a large cohort of opioid users; with a focus on testing whether excess mortality changes with age. Methods 198,247 opioid users in England were identified from drug treatment and criminal justice sources (April, 2005 to March, 2009) and linked to mortality records. Mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated by age-group and gender. Results There were 3974 deaths from all causes (SMR 5.7, 95% Confidence Interval: 5.5 to 5.9). Drug-related poisonings (1715) accounted for 43% of deaths. Relative to gender-and-age-appropriate expectation, mortality was elevated for a range of major causes including: infectious, respiratory, circulatory, liver disease, suicide, and homicide. Drug-related poisoning mortality risk continued to increase beyond 45 years and there were age-related increases in SMRs for specific causes of death (infectious, cancer, liver cirrhosis, and homicide). A gender by age-group interaction revealed that whilst men have a greater drug-related poisoning mortality risk than women at younger ages, the difference narrows with increasing age. Conclusion Opioid users’ excess mortality persists into old age and for some causes is exacerbated. This study highlights the importance of managing the complex health needs of older opioid users. PMID:25454405

Impact of statin adherence on cardiovascular disease and mortality outcomes: a systematic review

PubMed Central

De Vera, Mary A; Bhole, Vidula; Burns, Lindsay C; Lacaille, Diane

2014-01-01

Aims While suboptimal adherence to statin medication has been quantified in real-world patient settings, a better understanding of its impact is needed, particularly with respect to distinct problems of medication taking. Our aim was to synthesize current evidence on the impacts of statin adherence, discontinuation and persistence on cardiovascular disease and mortality outcomes. Methods We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies using a mapped search of Medline, Embase and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts databases. Observational studies that met the following criteria were included: defined patient population; statin adherence exposure; defined study outcome [i.e. cardiovascular disease (CVD), mortality]; and reporting of statin-specific results. Results Overall, 28 studies were included, with 19 studies evaluating outcomes associated with statin adherence, six with statin discontinuation and three with statin persistence. Among adherence studies, the proportion of days covered was the most widely used measure, with the majority of studies reporting increased risk of CVD (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.22 to 5.26) and mortality (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.25 to 2.54) among non-adherent individuals. There was greater methodological variability in discontinuation and persistence studies. However, findings of increased CVD (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.22 to 1.67) and mortality (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.79 to 5.00) among nonpersistent individuals were also consistently reported. Conclusions Observational studies consistently report an increased risk of adverse outcomes associated with poor statin adherence. These findings have important implications for patients and physicians and emphasize the importance of monitoring and encouraging adherence to statin therapy. PMID:25364801

Firearm Homicide and Other Causes of Death in Delinquents: A 16-Year Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Jakubowski, Jessica A.; Abram, Karen M.; Olson, Nichole D.; Stokes, Marquita L.; Welty, Leah J.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Delinquent youth are at risk for early violent death after release from detention. However, few studies have examined risk factors for mortality. Previous investigations studied only serious offenders (a fraction of the juvenile justice population) and provided little data on females. METHODS: The Northwestern Juvenile Project is a prospective longitudinal study of health needs and outcomes of a stratified random sample of 1829 youth (657 females, 1172 males; 524 Hispanic, 1005 African American, 296 non-Hispanic white, 4 other race/ethnicity) detained between 1995 and 1998. Data on risk factors were drawn from interviews; death records were obtained up to 16 years after detention. We compared all-cause mortality rates and causes of death with those of the general population. Survival analyses were used to examine risk factors for mortality after youth leave detention. RESULTS: Delinquent youth have higher mortality rates than the general population to age 29 years (P < .05), irrespective of gender or race/ethnicity. Females died at nearly 5 times the general population rate (P < .05); Hispanic males and females died at 5 and 9 times the general population rates, respectively (P < .05). Compared with the general population, significantly more delinquent youth died of homicide and its subcategory, homicide by firearm (P < .05). Among delinquent youth, racial/ethnic minorities were at increased risk of homicide compared with non-Hispanic whites (P < .05). Significant risk factors for external-cause mortality and homicide included drug dealing (up to 9 years later), alcohol use disorder, and gang membership (up to a decade later). CONCLUSIONS: Delinquent youth are an identifiable target population to reduce disparities in early violent death. PMID:24936005

Sleep duration and risk of stroke mortality among Chinese adults: the Singapore Chinese Health Study

PubMed Central

Pan, An; De Silva, Deidre Anne; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose Prospective relation between sleep duration and stroke risk is less studied, particularly in Asians. We examined the association between sleep duration and stroke mortality among Chinese adults. Methods The Singapore Chinese Health Study is a population-based cohort of 63,257 Chinese adults aged 45-74 years enrolled during 1993 through 1998. Sleep duration at baseline was assessed via in-person interview, and death information during follow-up was ascertained via record linkage with the death registry up to December 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with adjustment for other comorbidities and lifestyle risk factors of stroke mortality. Results During 926,752 person-years of follow-up, we documented 1,381 stroke deaths (322 from hemorrhagic and 1,059 from ischemic or non-specified strokes). Compared to individuals with 7 hours/day of sleep, the multivariate-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval) of total stroke mortality was 1.25 (1.05-1.50) for ≤5 hours/day (short duration), 1.01 (0.87-1.18) for 6 hours/day, 1.09 (0.95-1.26) for 8 hours/day, and 1.54 (1.28-1.85) for ≥9 hours/day (long duration). The increased risk of stroke death with short (1.54; 1.16-2.03) and long duration of sleep (1.95; 1.48-2.57) was seen among subjects with a history of hypertension, but not in those without hypertension. These findings were limited to risk of death from ischemic or non-specified stroke, but not observed for hemorrhagic stroke. Conclusions Both short and long sleep durations are associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in a Chinese population, particularly among those with a history of hypertension. PMID:24743442

Elevated Hemostasis Markers after Pneumonia Increases One-Year Risk of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Deaths

PubMed Central

Yende, Sachin; D'Angelo, Gina; Mayr, Florian; Kellum, John A.; Weissfeld, Lisa; Kaynar, A. Murat; Young, Tammy; Irani, Kaikobad; Angus, Derek C.

2011-01-01

Background Acceleration of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease, may increase long-term mortality after community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), but underlying mechanisms are unknown. Persistence of the prothrombotic state that occurs during an acute infection may increase risk of subsequent atherothrombosis in patients with pre-existing cardiovascular disease and increase subsequent risk of death. We hypothesized that circulating hemostasis markers activated during CAP persist at hospital discharge, when patients appear to have recovered clinically, and are associated with higher mortality, particularly due to cardiovascular causes. Methods In a cohort of survivors of CAP hospitalization from 28 US sites, we measured D-Dimer, thrombin-antithrombin complexes [TAT], Factor IX, antithrombin, and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 at hospital discharge, and determined 1-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results Of 893 subjects, most did not have severe pneumonia (70.6% never developed severe sepsis) and only 13.4% required intensive care unit admission. At discharge, 88.4% of subjects had normal vital signs and appeared to have clinically recovered. D-dimer and TAT levels were elevated at discharge in 78.8% and 30.1% of all subjects, and in 51.3% and 25.3% of those without severe sepsis. Higher D-dimer and TAT levels were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (range of hazard ratios were 1.66-1.17, p = 0.0001 and 1.46-1.04, p = 0.001 after adjusting for demographics and comorbid illnesses) and cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.009 and 0.003 in competing risk analyses). Conclusions Elevations of TAT and D-dimer levels are common at hospital discharge in patients who appeared to have recovered clinically from pneumonia and are associated with higher risk of subsequent deaths, particularly due to cardiovascular disease. PMID:21853050

The Association between Triglyceride/High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio and All-Cause Mortality in Acute Coronary Syndrome after Coronary Revascularization

PubMed Central

Wan, Ke; Zhao, Jianxun; Huang, Hao; Zhang, Qing; Chen, Xi; Zeng, Zhi; Zhang, Li; Chen, Yucheng

2015-01-01

Aims High triglycerides (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are cardiovascular risk factors. A positive correlation between elevated TG/HDL-C ratio and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events exists in women. However, utility of TG to HDL-C ratio for prediction is unknown among acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods Fasting lipid profiles, detailed demographic data, and clinical data were obtained at baseline from 416 patients with ACS after coronary revascularization. Subjects were stratified into three levels of TG/HDL-C. We constructed multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models for all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of 3 years using log TG to HDL-C ratio as a predictor variable and analyzing traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We constructed a logistic regression model for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) to prove that the TG/HDL-C ratio is a risk factor. Results The subject’s mean age was 64 ± 11 years; 54.5% were hypertensive, 21.8% diabetic, and 61.0% current or prior smokers. TG/HDL-C ratio ranged from 0.27 to 14.33. During the follow-up period, there were 43 deaths. In multivariate Cox models after adjusting for age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and severity of angiographic coronary disease, patients in the highest tertile of ACS had a 5.32-fold increased risk of mortality compared with the lowest tertile. After adjusting for conventional coronary heart disease risk factors by the logistic regression model, the TG/HDL-C ratio was associated with MACEs. Conclusion The TG to HDL-C ratio is a powerful independent predictor of all-cause mortality and is a risk factor of cardiovascular events. PMID:25880982

Sickness absence and disability pension due to otoaudiological diagnoses: risk of premature death – a nationwide prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background It is estimated that hearing difficulties will be one of the top ten leading burdens of disease by 2030. Knowledge of mortality among individuals on sick leave or disability pension due to hearing diagnoses is virtually non-existent. We aimed prospectively to examine the associations of diagnosis-specific sick leave and disability pension due to different otoaudiological diagnoses with risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Methods A cohort, based on Swedish registry data, including all 5 248 672 individuals living in Sweden in 2005, aged 20–64, and not on old-age pension, was followed through 2010. Otoaudiological diagnoses were placed in the following categories: otological, hearing, vertigo, and tinnitus. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models; individuals on sick leave or disability pension due to different otoaudiological diagnoses during 2005 were compared with those not on sick leave or disability pension. Results In multivariable models, individuals with sickness absence due to otoaudiological diagnoses showed a lower risk of mortality, while individuals on disability pension due to otoaudiological diagnoses showed a 14% (95% CI 1-29%) increased risk of mortality, compared with individuals not on sick leave or disability pension. The risk increase among individuals on disability pension was largely attributable to otological (HR 1.56; 95% CI = 1.04-2.33) and hearing diagnoses (HR 1.20; 95% CI = 1.00-1.43). Conclusion This large nationwide population-based cohort study suggests an increased risk of mortality among individuals on disability pension due to otoaudiological diagnoses. PMID:24507477

Differences between Risk Factors Associated with Tuberculosis Treatment Abandonment and Mortality

PubMed Central

Gomes, Nathália Mota de Faria; Bastos, Meire Cardoso da Mota; Marins, Renata Magliano; Barbosa, Aline Alves; Soares, Luiz Clóvis Parente; de Abreu, Annelise Maria de Oliveira Wilken; Souto Filho, João Tadeu Damian

2015-01-01

Objectives. To identify the risk factors that were associated with abandonment of treatment and mortality in tuberculosis (TB) patients. Methods. This study was a retrospective longitudinal cohort study involving tuberculosis patients treated between 2002 and 2008 in a TB reference center. Results. A total of 1,257 patients were evaluated, with 69.1% men, 54.4% under 40 years of age, 18.9% with extrapulmonary disease, and 9.3% coinfected with HIV. The risk factors that were associated with abandonment of treatment included male gender (OR = 2.05; 95% CI = 1.15–3.65) and nonadherence to previous treatment (OR = 3.14; 95% CI = 1.96–5.96). In addition, the presence of extrapulmonary TB was a protective factor (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.14–0.76). The following risk factors were associated with mortality: age over 40 years (OR = 2.61, 95% CI = 1.76–3.85), coinfection with HIV (OR = 6.01, 95% CI = 3.78–9.56), illiteracy (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.27–2.75), the presence of severe extrapulmonary TB (OR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.24–4.38), and retreatment after relapse (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.01–3.75). Conclusions. Male gender and retreatment after abandonment were independent risk factors for nonadherence to TB treatment. Furthermore, age over 40 years, coinfection with HIV, illiteracy, severe extrapulmonary TB, and retreatment after relapse were associated with higher TB mortality. Therefore, we suggest the implementation of direct measures that will control the identified risk factors to reduce the rates of treatment failure and TB-associated mortality. PMID:26600948

Motives for volunteering are associated with mortality risk in older adults.

PubMed

Konrath, Sara; Fuhrel-Forbis, Andrea; Lou, Alina; Brown, Stephanie

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of motives for volunteering on respondents' mortality risk 4 years later. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine whether motives for volunteering predicted later mortality risk, above and beyond volunteering itself, in older adults from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Covariates included age, gender, socioeconomic variables, physical, mental, and cognitive health, health risk behaviors, personality traits, received social support, and actual volunteering behavior. Replicating prior work, respondents who volunteered were at lower risk for mortality 4 years later, especially those who volunteered more regularly and frequently. However, volunteering behavior was not always beneficially related to mortality risk: Those who volunteered for self-oriented reasons had a mortality risk similar to nonvolunteers. Those who volunteered for other-oriented reasons had a decreased mortality risk, even in adjusted models. This study adds to the existing literature on the powerful effects of social interactions on health and is the first study to our knowledge to examine the effect of motives on volunteers' subsequent mortality. Volunteers live longer than nonvolunteers, but this is only true if they volunteer for other-oriented reasons.

Multiple risk factor interventions for primary prevention of coronary heart disease

PubMed Central

Ebrahim, Shah; Beswick, Andrew; Burke, Margaret; Smith, George Davey

2014-01-01

Background Primary prevention programmes in many countries attempt to reduce mortality and morbidity due to coronary heart disease (CHD) through risk factor modification. It is widely believed that multiple risk factor intervention using counselling and educational methods is efficacious and cost-effective and should be expanded. Recent trials examining risk factor changes have cast considerable doubt on the effectiveness of these multiple risk factor interventions. Objectives To assess the effects of multiple risk factor intervention for reducing cardiovascular risk factors, total mortality, and mortality from CHD among adults without clinical evidence of established cardiovascular disease. Search strategy MEDLINE was searched for the original review to 1995. This was updated by searching the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials on The Cochrane Library Issue 3 2001, MEDLINE(2000 to September 2001) and EMBASE (1998 to September 2001). Selection criteria Intervention studies using counselling or education to modify more than one cardiovascular risk factor in adults from general populations, occupational groups, or high risk groups. Trials of less than 6 months duration were excluded. Data collection and analysis Data were extracted by two reviewers independently. Investigators were contacted to obtain missing information. Main results A total of 39 trials were found of which ten reported clinical event data. In the ten trials with clinical event end-points, the pooled odds ratios for total and CHD mortality were 0.96 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.92 to 1.01) and 0.96 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.04) respectively. Net changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and blood cholesterol were (weighted mean differences) −3.6 mmHg (95% CI −3.9 to −3.3 mmHg), −2.8 mmHg (95% CI −2.9 to −2.6 mmHg) and −0.07 mMol/l (95% CI −0.8 to −0.06 mMol/l) respectively. Odds of reduction in smoking prevalence was 20% (95% CI 8% to 31%). Statistical heterogeneity between the studies with respect to mortality and risk factor changes was due to trials focusing on hypertensive participants and those using considerable amounts of drug treatment. Authors’ conclusions The pooled effects suggest multiple risk factor intervention has no effect on mortality. However, a small, but potentially important, benefit of treatment (about a 10% reduction in CHD mortality) may have been missed. Risk factor changes were relatively modest, were related to the amount of pharmacological treatment used, and in some cases may have been over-estimated because of regression to the mean effects, lack of intention to treat analyses, habituation to blood pressure measurement, and use of self-reports of smoking. Interventions using personal or family counselling and education with or without pharmacological treatments appear to be more effective at achieving risk factor reduction and consequent reductions in mortality in high risk hypertensive populations. The evidence suggests that such interventions have limited utility in the general population. PMID:17054138

Malnutrition as an underlying cause of childhood deaths associated with infectious diseases in developing countries.

PubMed Central

Rice, A. L.; Sacco, L.; Hyder, A.; Black, R. E.

2000-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Recent estimates suggest that malnutrition (measured as poor anthropometric status) is associated with about 50% of all deaths among children. Although the association between malnutrition and all-cause mortality is well documented, the malnutrition-related risk of death associated with specific diseases is less well described. We reviewed published literature to examine the evidence for a relation between malnutrition and child mortality from diarrhoea, acute respiratory illness, malaria and measles, conditions that account for over 50% of deaths in children worldwide. METHODS: MEDLINE was searched for suitable review articles and original reports of community-based and hospital-based studies. Findings from cohort studies and case-control studies were reviewed and summarized. RESULTS: The strongest and most consistent relation between malnutrition and an increased risk of death was observed for diarrhoea and acute respiratory infection. The evidence, although limited, also suggests a potentially increased risk for death from malaria. A less consistent association was observed between nutritional status and death from measles. Although some hospital-based studies and case-control studies reported an increased risk of mortality from measles, few community-based studies reported any association. DISCUSSION: The risk of malnutrition-related mortality seems to vary for different diseases. These findings have important implications for the evaluation of nutritional intervention programmes and child survival programmes being implemented in settings with different disease profiles. PMID:11100616

Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and In-Hospital Mortality of Venous Thromboembolism in Liver Cirrhosis: A Single-Center Retrospective Observational Study

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xintong; Qi, Xingshun; De Stefano, Valerio; Hou, Feifei; Ning, Zheng; Zhao, Jiancheng; Peng, Ying; Li, Jing; Deng, Han; Li, Hongyu; Guo, Xiaozhong

2016-01-01

Background Risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), may be increased in liver cirrhosis. We conducted a single-center study to explore the epidemiology, risk factors, and in-hospital mortality of VTE in Chinese patients with liver cirrhosis. Material/Methods All patients with liver cirrhosis who were consecutively admitted to our hospital between January 2011 and December 2013 were retrospectively included. Results Of 2006 patients with liver cirrhosis included, 9 patients were diagnosed with or developed VTE during hospitalization, including 5 patients with a previous history of DVT, 1 patient with either a previous history of DVT or new onset of PE, and 3 patients with new onset of VTE (PE, n=1; DVT, n=2). Risk factors for VTE included a significantly higher proportion of hypertension and significantly higher red blood cells, hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, prothrombin time (PT), international normalized ratio (INR), D-dimer, and Child-Pugh scores. The in-hospital mortality was significantly higher in patients with VTE than those without VTE (33.3% [3/9] versus 3.4% [67/1997], P<0.001). Conclusions VTE was observed in 0.4% of patients with liver cirrhosis during hospitalization and it significantly increased the in-hospital mortality. Elevated PT/INR aggravated the risk of VTE. PMID:27009380

Anthropometric trends and the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in a Lithuanian urban population aged 45–64 years

PubMed Central

Luksiene, Dalia; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Virviciute, Dalia; Bernotiene, Gailute; Peasey, Anne

2015-01-01

Aims: To estimate trends in anthropometric indexes from 1992 to 2008 and to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in relation to anthropometric indexes (body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio, waist:height ratio). Methods: Data from the three surveys (1992–2008) are presented. A random sample of 5147 subjects aged 45–64 years was selected for statistical analysis. During follow-up there were 141 deaths from cardiovascular disease (excluding those with cardiovascular disease at entry). Cox’s regression was used to estimate the associations between anthropometric indexes and cardiovascular disease mortality. Results: During a 17-year period among men, the prevalence of obesity (body mass index ⩾30 kg/m2) increased from 18.4% to 32.1% (p<0.001) and a high level of waist:hip ratio (>0.9) from 59.3% to 72.9% (p<0.001). The risk profile of obesity did not change in women, but prevalence of a high level of waist:hip ratio (>0.85) increased from 25.9% to 41.5% (p<0.001). Multivariable-adjusted Cox’s regression models showed that body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio, waist:height ratio were associated with cardiovascular disease mortality risk only in men (hazard ratios 1.40, 1.45, 1.49, 1.46 respectively (p<0.01)). Conclusions: Our data indicate that anthropometric measures such as body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio and waist:height ratio are good indicators of cardiovascular disease mortality risk only in men aged 45–64 years. PMID:26261188

Marriage is a dependent risk factor for mortality of colon adenocarcinoma without a time-varying effect

PubMed Central

Yu, Wei; Chen, Jie; Xiong, Weibin; Chen, Shuang; Yu, Li

2017-01-01

Background It has been well recognized that the effects of many prognostic factors could change during long-term follow-up. Although marriage has been proven to be a significant prognostic factor for the survival of colon cancer, whether the effect of marriage is constant with time remain unknown. This study analyzed the impact of marital status on the mortality of colon cancer patients with an extended Cox model that allowed for time-varying effects. Methods We identified 71,955 patients who underwent colectomy between 2004 and 2009 to treat colon adenocarcinoma from the Surveilance, Epidemiology and End Results Database. The multivariate extended Cox model was used to evaluate the effect of marital status on all-cause mortality, while the Fine-Gray competing risks model was used for colon cancer-specific mortality, with death from other causes as the competing risk. Results The unmarried patients carried a 1.37-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with the married patients (95%CI: 1.33-1.40; p<0.001), and the hazard ratio remained constant over time. Being unmarried was at a higher risk of death from colon adenocarcinoma as well as death from other causes. Four variables including tumor site, tumor grade, sex and TNM stage were proved to have time-varying effects on survival. Conclusions Marriage is a dependent prognosis factor for survival of surgically treated colon adenocarcinoma patients. Psychological interventions are suggested to improve receipt of treatment among unmarried patients, as their poor survival may be due to the inefficient treatment. PMID:28423614

CVD and obesity in transitional Syria: a perspective from the Middle East

PubMed Central

Barakat, Hani; Barakat, Hanniya; Baaj, Mohamad K

2012-01-01

Purpose Syria is caught in the middle of a disruptive nutritional transition. Its healthcare system is distracted by challenges and successes in other areas while neglecting to address the onslaught of Syria’s cardiovascular disease (CVD) epidemic. Despite the official viewpoint touting improvement in health indicators, current trends jeopardize population health, and several surveys in the Syrian population signal the epidemic spreading far and wide. The goal is to counteract the indifference towards obesity as a threat to Syrian’s health, as the country is slowly becoming a leader in CVD mortality globally. Methods PubMed, World Health Organization, and official government websites were searched for primary surveys in Syria related to CVD morbidity, mortality, and risk factors. Inclusion criteria ensured that results maximized relevance while producing comparable studies. Statistical analysis was applied to detect the most common risk factor and significant differences in risk factor prevalence and CVD rates. Results Obesity remained the prevailing CVD risk factor except in older Syrian men, where smoking and hypertension were more common. CVD mortality was more common in males due to coronary disease, while stroke dominated female mortality. The young workforce is especially impacted, with 50% of CVD mortality occurring before age 65 years and an 81% prevalence of obesity in women over 45 years. Conclusion Syria can overcome its slow response to the CVD epidemic and curb further deterioration by reducing obesity and, thus, inheritance and clustering of risk factors. This can be achieved via multilayered awareness and intensive parental and familial involvement. Extinguishing the CVD epidemic is readily achievable as demonstrated in other countries. PMID:22454558

Quantifying Policy Options for Reducing Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England: A Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Scholes, Shaun; Bajekal, Madhavi; Norman, Paul; O’Flaherty, Martin; Hawkins, Nathaniel; Kivimäki, Mika; Capewell, Simon; Raine, Rosalind

2013-01-01

Aims To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Methods and Results Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. Conclusions CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies. PMID:23936122

Electronic fetal heart rate monitoring and its relationship to neonatal and infant mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Chen, Han-Yang; Chauhan, Suneet P; Ananth, Cande V; Vintzileos, Anthony M; Abuhamad, Alfred Z

2011-06-01

To examine the association between electronic fetal heart rate monitoring and neonatal and infant mortality, as well as neonatal morbidity. We used the United States 2004 linked birth and infant death data. Multivariable log-binomial regression models were fitted to estimate risk ratio for association between electronic fetal heart rate monitoring and mortality, while adjusting for potential confounders. In 2004, 89% of singleton pregnancies had electronic fetal heart rate monitoring. Electronic fetal heart rate monitoring was associated with significantly lower infant mortality (adjusted relative risk, 0.75); this was mainly driven by the lower risk of early neonatal mortality (adjusted relative risk, 0.50). In low-risk pregnancies, electronic fetal heart rate monitoring was associated with decreased risk for Apgar scores <4 at 5 minutes (relative risk, 0.54); in high-risk pregnancies, with decreased risk of neonatal seizures (relative risk, 0.65). In the United States, the use of electronic fetal heart rate monitoring was associated with a substantial decrease in early neonatal mortality and morbidity that lowered infant mortality. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Racial Prejudice on the Health of Communities: A Multilevel Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Muennig, Peter; Kawachi, Ichiro; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether and how racial prejudice at both the individual and community levels contributes to mortality risk among majority as well as minority group members. Methods. We used data on racial attitudes from the General Social Survey (1993–2002) prospectively linked to mortality data from the National Death Index through 2008. Results. Whites and Blacks living in communities with higher levels of racial prejudice were at an elevated risk of mortality, independent of individual and community sociodemographic characteristics and individually held racist beliefs (odds ratio = 1.24; 95% confidence interval = 1.04, 1.49). Living in a highly prejudiced community had similar harmful effects among both Blacks and Whites. Furthermore, the interaction observed between individual- and community-level racial prejudice indicated that respondents with higher levels of racial prejudice had lower survival rates if they lived in communities with low degrees of racial prejudice. Community-level social capital explained the relationship between community racial prejudice and mortality. Conclusions. Community-level racial prejudice may disrupt social capital, and reduced social capital is associated with increased mortality risk among both Whites and Blacks. Our results contribute to an emerging body of literature documenting the negative consequences of prejudice for population health. PMID:26378850

Socioeconomic factors and cervical cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1989-1997.

PubMed

Morales Suarez-Varela, M M; Jiménez-López, M C; Llópis-González, A

2004-01-01

A study was made of cervical cancer (CC) mortality trends in Spain during the period 1989-1997 at National, Autonomous Community and Provincial levels, in relation to different socioeconomic factors. Data were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, INE). The crude mortality rates were age-adjusted using the indirect method and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as socioeconomic status (SES) indicator. National CC age-adjusted mortality rates have increasing slightly, varying from 3.09 deaths/100000 women in 1989 to 3.42 in 1996. The highest age-adjusted mortality rates corresponded to Seville, Palencia and Orense, with 4.13, 4.06 and 3.98 cases/100000 women, respectively. The lowest mortality rates were found in Las Palmas, Cantabria and Alicante with 2.63, 2.77 and 2.80 deaths/100000 women, respectively. A relative risk (RR) of 1.14 (95%CI: 0.98-1.32) ( P=0.048) was observed between the provinces with the lowest SES and highest mortality rate, and those with the highest SES and lowest mortality rate. The results of our study show a slight increasing trend in CC mortality rates in Spain during the period 1989-1997, and suggest that the variations among provinces and Autonomous Communities could be due to CC risk factors (SES related to human papillomavirus, parity, diet, etc.) and differences in early diagnosis.

Use of Age and Medical Comorbidity to Assess Long-term Other-cause Mortality Risk in a Cohort of Men Undergoing Prostate Biopsy at an Academic Medical Center.

PubMed

Kominsky, Hal D; Bashline, Michael; Eun, Daniel; Pontari, Michel A; Mydlo, Jack H; Reese, Adam C

2017-02-01

To assess life expectancy and biopsy outcomes in men undergoing prostate biopsy at an academic medical center. We analyzed men who underwent prostate biopsy at our medical center between July 2012 and June 2014. Long-term other-cause mortality risk was determined using survival tables. Indications for biopsy and biopsy outcomes were assessed, and compared among men with varying mortality risks. A total of 417 men underwent prostate biopsy, in whom 14-year other-cause mortality risk ranged from 9% to 74%. One hundred ninety-three men (46.3%) were considered low-mortality risk (<40% risk of 14-year mortality), 131 (31.4%) intermediate risk (41%-55% 14-year mortality), and 93 (22.3%) high risk (>55% 14-year mortality). Of the 417 patients who underwent biopsy, 149 (35.7%) were found to have prostate cancer. There was no significant difference in the rate of positive biopsies (P = .72), distribution of Gleason scores (P = .60), or percentage of positive biopsy cores (P = .74) between mortality risk groups. However, by UCSF Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score, there was significant trend toward higher-risk prostate cancer in men with intermediate and high-mortality risk (P = .04). In this analysis, a large number of men with limited life expectancies underwent prostate biopsy. The majority of these men had negative biopsies or low-risk cancers, suggesting that they were unlikely to benefit from biopsy. To avoid potentially unnecessary prostate biopsies, the practitioner must give serious consideration to a patient's age and medical comorbidities before making a recommendation as to whether biopsy should be performed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stratification of complexity in congenital heart surgery: comparative study of the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method, Aristotle basic score and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio- Thoracic Surgery (STS-EACTS) mortality score

PubMed Central

Cavalcanti, Paulo Ernando Ferraz; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; dos Santos, Cecília Andrade; Esmeraldo, Isaac Melo; Chaves, Mariana Leal; Lins, Ricardo Felipe de Albuquerque; Lima, Ricardo de Carvalho

2015-01-01

Objective To determine whether stratification of complexity models in congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1, Aristotle basic score and STS-EACTS mortality score) fit to our center and determine the best method of discriminating hospital mortality. Methods Surgical procedures in congenital heart diseases in patients under 18 years of age were allocated to the categories proposed by the stratification of complexity methods currently available. The outcome hospital mortality was calculated for each category from the three models. Statistical analysis was performed to verify whether the categories presented different mortalities. The discriminatory ability of the models was determined by calculating the area under the ROC curve and a comparison between the curves of the three models was performed. Results 360 patients were allocated according to the three methods. There was a statistically significant difference between the mortality categories: RACHS-1 (1) - 1.3%, (2) - 11.4%, (3)-27.3%, (4) - 50 %, (P<0.001); Aristotle basic score (1) - 1.1%, (2) - 12.2%, (3) - 34%, (4) - 64.7%, (P<0.001); and STS-EACTS mortality score (1) - 5.5 %, (2) - 13.6%, (3) - 18.7%, (4) - 35.8%, (P<0.001). The three models had similar accuracy by calculating the area under the ROC curve: RACHS-1- 0.738; STS-EACTS-0.739; Aristotle- 0.766. Conclusion The three models of stratification of complexity currently available in the literature are useful with different mortalities between the proposed categories with similar discriminatory capacity for hospital mortality. PMID:26107445

Maternal obesity and gestational weight gain are risk factors for infant death

PubMed Central

Bodnar, Lisa M.; Siminerio, Lara L.; Himes, Katherine P.; Hutcheon, Jennifer A.; Lash, Timothy L.; Parisi, Sara M.; Abrams, Barbara

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the joint and independent relationships of gestational weight gain and prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) on risk of infant mortality. Methods We used Pennsylvania linked birth-infant death records (2003–2011) from infants without anomalies to underweight (n=58,973), normal weight (n=610,118), overweight (n=296,630), grade 1 obese (n=147,608), grade 2 obese (n=71,740), and grade 3 obese (n=47,277) mothers. Multivariable logistic regression models stratified by BMI category were used to estimate dose-response associations between z-scores of gestational weight gain and infant death after confounder adjustment. Results Infant mortality risk was lowest among normal weight women and increased with rising BMI category. For all BMI groups except for grade 3 obesity, there were U-shaped associations between gestational weight gain and risk of infant death. Weight loss and very low weight gain among women with grade 1 and 2 obesity were associated with high risks of infant mortality. However, even when gestational weight gain in women with obesity was optimized, the predicted risk of infant death remained higher than that of normal weight women. Conclusions Interventions aimed at substantially reducing preconception weight among women with obesity and avoiding very low or very high gestational weight gain may reduce risk of infant death. PMID:26572932

What weather variables are important in predicting heat-related mortality? A new application of statistical learning methods

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kai; Li, Yun; Schwartz, Joel D.; O'Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

Hot weather increases risk of mortality. Previous studies used different sets of weather variables to characterize heat stress, resulting in variation in heat-mortality- associations depending on the metric used. We employed a statistical learning method – random forests – to examine which of various weather variables had the greatest impact on heat-related mortality. We compiled a summertime daily weather and mortality counts dataset from four U.S. cities (Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; Philadelphia, PA; and Phoenix, AZ) from 1998 to 2006. A variety of weather variables were ranked in predicting deviation from typical daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts. Ranks of weather variables varied with city and health outcome. Apparent temperature appeared to be the most important predictor of heat-related mortality for all-cause mortality. Absolute humidity was, on average, most frequently selected one of the top variables for all-cause mortality and seven cause-specific mortality categories. Our analysis affirms that apparent temperature is a reasonable variable for activating heat alerts and warnings, which are commonly based on predictions of total mortality in next few days. Additionally, absolute humidity should be included in future heat-health studies. Finally, random forests can be used to guide choice of weather variables in heat epidemiology studies. PMID:24834832

Prognosis of Parkinson disease: risk of dementia and mortality: the Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

de Lau, Lonneke M L; Schipper, C Maarten A; Hofman, Albert; Koudstaal, Peter J; Breteler, Monique M B

2005-08-01

Most prognostic studies on Parkinson disease have been hospital based or have applied register-based case-finding methods. Potential under-representation of mild cases may have given biased results. To evaluate whether Parkinson disease is associated with an increased risk of dementia and death. Population-based cohort study. Parkinson disease and dementia were assessed through in-person examination at baseline (1990-1993) and 2 follow-up visits (1993-1994 and 1997-1999). Computerized linkage to medical and municipality records provided additional information on disease outcomes and mortality. General population. A total of 6969 participants, including 99 prevalent and 67 incident cases of Parkinson disease. Incident dementia and death. Adjusted hazard ratios were calculated through Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Patients with Parkinson disease had an increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio, 2.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-4.4), which was especially pronounced in participants carrying at least 1 apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) epsilon2 allele (13.5; 4.5-40.6). Parkinson disease was associated with an increased mortality risk (1.8; 1.5-2.3). The association consistently diminished when analyses were sequentially restricted to patients with shorter disease duration and after adjustment for the occurrence of dementia. Especially patients with Parkinson disease who carry an APOE epsilon2 allele have an increased risk of developing dementia. Increased mortality risk in Parkinson disease is dependent on disease duration and is only modest in the absence of dementia.

Association of BMI with risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Kee, Chee Cheong; Sumarni, Mohd Ghazali; Lim, Kuang Hock; Selvarajah, Sharmini; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Tee, Guat Hiong Helen; Gurpreet, Kaur; Faudzi, Yusoff Ahmad; Amal, Nasir Mustafa

2017-05-01

To determine the relationship between BMI and risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality among Malaysian adults. Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Participants were followed up for 5 years from 2006 to 2010. Mortality data were obtained via record linkages with the Malaysian National Registration Department. Multiple Cox regression was applied to compare risk of CVD and all-cause mortality between BMI categories adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity. Models were generated for all participants, all participants the first 2 years of follow-up, healthy participants, healthy never smokers, never smokers, current smokers and former smokers. All fourteen states in Malaysia. Malaysian adults (n 32 839) aged 18 years or above from the third National Health and Morbidity Survey. Total follow-up time was 153 814 person-years with 1035 deaths from all causes and 225 deaths from CVD. Underweight (BMI<18·5 kg/m2) was associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality, while obesity (BMI ≥30·0 kg/m2) was associated with a heightened risk of CVD mortality. Overweight (BMI=25·0-29·9 kg/m2) was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality. Underweight was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in all models except for current smokers. Overweight was inversely associated with all-cause mortality in all participants. Although a positive trend was observed between BMI and CVD mortality in all participants, a significant association was observed only for severe obesity (BMI≥35·0 kg/m2). Underweight was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and obesity with increased risk of CVD mortality. Therefore, maintaining a normal BMI through leading an active lifestyle and healthy dietary habits should continue to be promoted.

Mortality in traffic accidents with older adults in Colombia

PubMed Central

Cardona, Angela Maria Segura; Arango, Doris Cardona; Fernández, Dedsy Yajaira Berbesí; Martínez, Alejandra Agudelo

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the traffic accident mortality in the Colombian older adults during the 1998-2012 period and show the loss of productive years and mortality from this cause. METHODS Quantitative study of the trend analysis of deaths in Colombia in traffic accidents, from 1998 to 2012, according to death records and population projected by the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics. Frequency distribution profile of the deceased, death rates per hundred thousand inhabitants, potential years of life lost and calculation of excess mortality by age in the over 60 were made. RESULTS In the study period 100,758 deaths occurred in traffic accidents, 6,717 annual average, of which 18.5% occurred in people aged 60 years and over. The predominated deaths were men; the risk of dying was 32.15 per hundred thousand people in this age range, with double risk of dying those under 60 years. CONCLUSIONS The young population has a higher proportion of deaths, but those over 60 years are at increased risk of death, leading to the need to turn our gaze to the improvement of road infrastructure and standards, to educate the population in self-care and compliance with safety measures and prepare society for an ever more adult population, more numerous and more prone to take risks. PMID:28355347

Stratification of complexity in congenital heart surgery: comparative study of the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method, Aristotle basic score and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio- Thoracic Surgery (STS-EACTS) mortality score.

PubMed

Cavalcanti, Paulo Ernando Ferraz; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; Santos, Cecília Andrade dos; Esmeraldo, Isaac Melo; Chaves, Mariana Leal; Lins, Ricardo Felipe de Albuquerque; Lima, Ricardo de Carvalho

2015-01-01

To determine whether stratification of complexity models in congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1, Aristotle basic score and STS-EACTS mortality score) fit to our center and determine the best method of discriminating hospital mortality. Surgical procedures in congenital heart diseases in patients under 18 years of age were allocated to the categories proposed by the stratification of complexity methods currently available. The outcome hospital mortality was calculated for each category from the three models. Statistical analysis was performed to verify whether the categories presented different mortalities. The discriminatory ability of the models was determined by calculating the area under the ROC curve and a comparison between the curves of the three models was performed. 360 patients were allocated according to the three methods. There was a statistically significant difference between the mortality categories: RACHS-1 (1) - 1.3%, (2) - 11.4%, (3)-27.3%, (4) - 50 %, (P<0.001); Aristotle basic score (1) - 1.1%, (2) - 12.2%, (3) - 34%, (4) - 64.7%, (P<0.001); and STS-EACTS mortality score (1) - 5.5 %, (2) - 13.6%, (3) - 18.7%, (4) - 35.8%, (P<0.001). The three models had similar accuracy by calculating the area under the ROC curve: RACHS-1- 0.738; STS-EACTS-0.739; Aristotle- 0.766. The three models of stratification of complexity currently available in the literature are useful with different mortalities between the proposed categories with similar discriminatory capacity for hospital mortality.

QUALIFYING VARIATION IN RISKS ACROSS SPACE AND TIME TO POPULATIONS OF THE COMMON LOON

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a larger project to evaluate methods for assessing risks to wildlife populations we are investigating patterns of mortality in populations of the common loon (Gavia immer) in New England. Regionally, loon populations have declined from historic levels and despite rece...

The HbA1c and All-Cause Mortality Relationship in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes is J-Shaped: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

PubMed Central

Arnold, Luke W.; Wang, Zhiqiang

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Low blood glucose and HbA1c levels are recommended in the literature on management of diabetes. However, data have shown that low blood glucose is associated with serious adverse effects for the patients and the recommendation has been criticized. Therefore, this article revisits the relationship between HbA1c and all-cause mortality by a meta-analysis of observational studies. AIM: The aim of this study is to determine whether there is a J- or U-shaped non-linear relationship between HbA1c and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes patients, implying an increased risk to premature all-cause mortality at high and low levels of HbA1c. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted using PubMed, Medline, and Cochrane Library databases with strict inclusion/exclusion criteria. The published adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals of all-cause mortality for each HbA1c category and per study were analyzed. Fractional polynomial regression was used with random effect modeling to assess the non-linear relationship of the HR trends between studies. Seven eligible observational studies with a total of 147,424 participants were included in the study. RESULTS: A significant J-shaped relationship was observed between HbA1c and all-cause mortality. Crude relative risk for all-cause mortality identified a decreased risk per 1% increase in HbA1c below 7.5% (58 mmol/mol) (0.90, CI 0.86-0.94) and an increased risk per 1% increase in HbA1c above 7.5% (58 mmol/mol) (1.04, CI 1.01-1.06). Observational studies revealed a J-shaped relationship between HbA1c and all-cause mortality, equivalent to an increased risk of mortality at high and low HbA1c levels. CONCLUSIONS: This increased mortality at high and low HbA1c levels has significant implications on investigating optimum clinical HbA1c targets as it suggests that there are upper and lower limits for creating a 'security zone' for diabetes management. PMID:25396402

Patients with Testicular Cancer Undergoing CT Surveillance Demonstrate a Pitfall of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Estimates: The Timing Paradox

PubMed Central

Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Lee, Richard J.; Gilmore, Michael E.; Turan, Ekin A.; Singh, Sarabjeet; Kalra, Mannudeep K.; Liu, Bob; Kong, Chung Yin; Gazelle, G. Scott

2013-01-01

Purpose: To demonstrate a limitation of lifetime radiation-induced cancer risk metrics in the setting of testicular cancer surveillance—in particular, their failure to capture the delayed timing of radiation-induced cancers over the course of a patient’s lifetime. Materials and Methods: Institutional review board approval was obtained for the use of computed tomographic (CT) dosimetry data in this study. Informed consent was waived. This study was HIPAA compliant. A Markov model was developed to project outcomes in patients with testicular cancer who were undergoing CT surveillance in the decade after orchiectomy. To quantify effects of early versus delayed risks, life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to testicular cancer were compared with life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to radiation-induced cancers from CT. Projections of life expectancy loss, unlike lifetime risk estimates, account for the timing of risks over the course of a lifetime, which enabled evaluation of the described limitation of lifetime risk estimates. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the uncertainty of the results. Results: As an example of evidence yielded, 33-year-old men with stage I seminoma who were undergoing CT surveillance were projected to incur a slightly higher lifetime mortality risk from testicular cancer (598 per 100 000; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 302, 894) than from radiation-induced cancers (505 per 100 000; 95% UI: 280, 730). However, life expectancy loss attributable to testicular cancer (83 days; 95% UI: 42, 124) was more than three times greater than life expectancy loss attributable to radiation-induced cancers (24 days; 95% UI: 13, 35). Trends were consistent across modeled scenarios. Conclusion: Lifetime radiation risk estimates, when used for decision making, may overemphasize radiation-induced cancer risks relative to short-term health risks. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.12121015/-/DC1 PMID:23249573

[Mortality in early-stage, surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer less than 3 cm of size: Competing risk analysis].

PubMed

Jordá Aragón, Carlos; Peñalver Cuesta, Juan Carlos; Mancheño Franch, Nuria; de Aguiar Quevedo, Karol; Vera Sempere, Francisco; Padilla Alarcón, José

2015-09-07

Survival studies of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are usually based on the Kaplan-Meier method. However, other factors not covered by this method may modify the observation of the event of interest. There are models of cumulative incidence (CI), that take into account these competing risks, enabling more accurate survival estimates and evaluation of the risk of death from other causes. We aimed to evaluate these models in resected early-stage NSCLC patients. This study included 263 patients with resected NSCLC whose diameter was ≤ 3 cm without node involvement (N0). Demographic, clinical, morphopathological and surgical variables, TNM classification and long-term evolution were analysed. To analyse CI, death by another cause was considered to be competitive event. For the univariate analysis, Gray's method was used, while Fine and Gray's method was employed for the multivariate analysis. Mortality by NSCLC was 19.4% at 5 years and 14.3% by another cause. Both curves crossed at 6.3 years, and probability of death by another cause became greater from this point. In multivariate analysis, cancer mortality was conditioned by visceral pleural invasion (VPI) (P=.001) and vascular invasion (P=.020), with age>50 years (P=.034), smoking (P=.009) and the Charlson index ≥ 2 (P=.000) being by no cancer. By the method of CI, VPI and vascular invasion conditioned cancer death in NSCLC >3 cm, while non-tumor causes of long-term death were determined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Increased Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) Portends High Mortality Risk Independent of Glycemic Control in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Wilson Tang, W. H.; Wang, Zeneng; Li, Xinmin S.; Fan, Yiying; Li, Daniel S.; Wu, Yuping; Hazen, Stanley L.

2017-01-01

Background Recent studies show a mechanistic link between intestinal microbial metabolism of dietary phosphatidylcholine and coronary artery disease pathogenesis. Concentrations of a pro-atherogenic gut microbe-generated metabolite, trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO), predict increased incident cardiovascular disease risks in multiple cohorts. TMAO concentrations are increased in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but their prognostic value and relation to glycemic control are unclear. Methods We examined the relationship between fasting TMAO and two of its nutrient precursors, choline and betaine, versus 3-year major adverse cardiac events and 5-year mortality in 1,216 stable patients with T2DM who underwent elective diagnostic coronary angiography. Results TMAO (4.4 µmol/L [interquartile range 2.8–7.7µmol/L] vs. 3.6[2.3–5.7µmol/L]; P<0.001) and choline concentrations were higher in individuals with T2DM versus healthy controls. Within T2DM patients, higher plasma TMAO was associated with a significant 3.0-fold increased 3-year major adverse cardiac events risk (P<0.001) and a 3.6-fold increased 5-year mortality risk (P<0.001). Following adjustments for traditional risk factors and high sensitivity C-reactive protein, glycated hemoglobin and estimated glomerular filtration rate, increased TMAO concentrations remained predictive of both major adverse cardiac events and mortality risks in T2DM patients (e.g. Quartiles 4 vs. 1, hazard ratio 2.05[95%CI 1.31–3.20], P<0.001; and 2.07[95%CI 1.37–3.14], P<0.001, respectively). Conclusion Fasting plasma concentrations of the pro-atherogenic gut microbe-generated metabolite TMAO are higher in diabetic patients and portend higher major adverse cardiac events and mortality risks independent of traditional risk factors, renal function, and relationship to glycemic control. PMID:27864387

2014 CRL Blood Pressure Study of Life Insurance Applicants.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Dolan, Vera F; Stout, Robert L

2015-01-01

Objective .- Define the relative mortality risk by systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in a relatively healthy cohort split by age and sex with adjustment for smoking status, other findings and admitted heart disease history. Method .- Blood pressure (BP in mm Hg), build, laboratory studies and limited medical history are collected when people apply for individual life insurance. Information on 2,472,706 applicants tested by Clinical Reference Laboratory from 1993 to 2007 was utilized with follow-up for vital status using the September 2011 Social Security Death Master File identifying 31,033 deaths. Data was analyzed by SBP and DBP split by age and sex accounting for smoking and for BMI, urine protein/creatinine ratio and history of heart disease in a Cox multivariate survival analysis. Separate analysis by admitted hypertension history was also conducted. Results are presented by SBP and DBP for 4 age-sex groups with and without added covariates beyond age and smoking status. Results .- Relative mortality progressively increased by SBP level from the 90 to 119 band (down to 80 in younger women) upward with little additional impact by DBP. Addition of covariates beyond age and smoking resulted in a 5% to 10% reduction in relative risk. Although high DBP had limited impact, a pulse pressure/SBP ratio >½ identified 1% of applicants at high mortality risk, with little difference in risk for ratios ≤½. Hypertension history with current BP control was associated with a 10% to 25% increase in relative mortality risk as compared to those with similar BP but no such history. Conclusion .- Increasing SBP is closely associated with increasing relative mortality, starting from the lowest SBP. Increasing DBP has little additional impact, but a pulse pressure/SBP ratio >½ is a potent marker of increased risk as well. Accounting for build and other laboratory findings reduces risk modestly. A history of hypertension with current control increases risk.

Dietary Protein Sources and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: The Golestan Cohort Study in Iran

PubMed Central

Farvid, Maryam S.; Malekshah, Akbar F.; Pourshams, Akram; Poustchi, Hossein; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Sharafkhah, Maryam; Khoshnia, Masoud; Farvid, Mojtaba; Abnet, Christian C.; Kamangar, Farin; Dawsey, Sanford M.; Brennan, Paul; Pharoah, Paul D.; Boffetta, Paolo; Willett, Walter C.; Malekzadeh, Reza

2016-01-01

Introduction Dietary protein comes from foods with greatly different compositions that may not relate equally with mortality risk. Few cohort studies from non-Western countries have examined the association between various dietary protein sources and cause-specific mortality. Therefore, the associations between dietary protein sources and all-cause, cardiovascular disease, and cancer mortality were evaluated in the Golestan Cohort Study in Iran. Methods Among 42,403 men and women who completed a dietary questionnaire at baseline, 3,291 deaths were documented during 11 years of follow up (2004–2015). Cox proportional hazards models estimated age-adjusted and multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for all- cause and disease-specific mortality in relation to dietary protein sources. Data were analyzed from 2015 to 2016. Results Comparing the highest versus the lowest quartile, egg consumption was associated with lower all-cause mortality risk (HR=0.88, 95% CI=0.79, 0.97, ptrend=0.03). In multivariate analysis, the highest versus the lowest quartile of fish consumption was associated with reduced risk of total cancer (HR=0.79, 95% CI=0.64, 0.98, ptrend=0.03) and gastrointestinal cancer (HR=0.75, 95% CI=0.56, 1.00, ptrend=0.02) mortality. The highest versus the lowest quintile of legume consumption was associated with reduced total cancer (HR=0.72, 95% CI=0.58, 0.89, ptrend=0.004), gastrointestinal cancer (HR=0.76, 95% CI=0.58, 1.01, ptrend=0.05), and other cancer (HR=0.66, 95% CI=0.47, 0.93, ptrend=0.04) mortality. Significant associations between total red meat and poultry intake and all- cause, cardiovascular disease, or cancer mortality rate were not observed among all participants. Conclusions These findings support an association of higher fish and legume consumption with lower cancer mortality, and higher egg consumption with lower all-cause mortality. PMID:28109460

Depressive symptoms and Cardiovascular Mortality in Older African-American and White Adults: Evidence for a Differential Association by Race

PubMed Central

Lewis, Tené T.; Guo, Hongfei; Lunos, Scott; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F.; Skarupski, Kimberly A.; Evans, Denis A.; Everson-Rose, Susan A.

2011-01-01

Background An emerging body of research suggests that depressive symptoms may confer an “accelerated risk” for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in African-Americans, compared with whites. Research in this area has been limited to cardiovascular risk factors and early markers; less is known about black-white differences in associations with important clinical endpoints. Methods The authors examined the association between depressive symptoms and overall CVD mortality, ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality, and stroke mortality in a sample of 6,158 (62% African-American; 61% female) community-dwelling older adults. Cox proportional hazards models were used to model time-to-CVD, IHD and stroke death over follow-up. Results In race-stratified models adjusted for age and sex, elevated depressive symptoms were associated with CVD mortality over follow-up in African-Americans (HR=1.95, 95% CI= 1.61-2.36, p<.001), but were not significantly associated with CVD mortality in whites (HR=1.26, 95% CI=.95-1.68, p=.11; race by depressive symptoms interaction p=.03). Similar findings were observed for IHD mortality (African-American HR=1.99, 95% CI=1.49-2.64, p<.001; white HR=1.28, 95% CI=.86-1.89, p=.23); and stroke mortality (African-American HR=2.08, 95% CI=1.32-3.27, p=.002; white HR=1.32, 95% CI=.69-2.52, p=.40). Findings for total CVD mortality and IHD mortality were attenuated, but remained significant after adjusting for standard risk factors. Findings for stroke were reduced to marginal significance. Conclusions Elevated depressive symptoms were associated with multiple indicators of CVD mortality in older African-Americans, but not whites. Findings were not completely explained by standard risk factors. Efforts aimed at reducing depressive symptoms in African-Americans may ultimately prove beneficial for their cardiovascular health. PMID:21505153

Obesity Indexes and Total Mortality among Elderly Subjects at High Cardiovascular Risk: The PREDIMED Study

PubMed Central

Martínez-González, Miguel A.; García-Arellano, Ana; Toledo, Estefanía; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Bulló, Mónica; Corella, Dolores; Fito, Montserrat; Ros, Emilio; Lamuela-Raventós, Rosa Maria; Rekondo, Javier; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Fiol, Miquel; Santos-Lozano, Jose Manuel; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Martínez, J. Alfredo; Eguaras, Sonia; Sáez-Tormo, Guillermo; Pintó, Xavier; Estruch, Ramon

2014-01-01

Background Different indexes of regional adiposity have been proposed for identifying persons at higher risk of death. Studies specifically assessing these indexes in large cohorts are scarce. It would also be interesting to know whether a dietary intervention may counterbalance the adverse effects of adiposity on mortality. Methods We assessed the association of four different anthropometric indexes (waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and height) with all-cause mortality in 7447 participants at high cardiovascular risk from the PREDIMED trial. Forty three percent of them were men (55 to 80 years) and 57% were women (60 to 80 years). All of them were initially free of cardiovascular disease. The recruitment took place in 11 recruiting centers between 2003 and 2009. Results After adjusting for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, intervention group, family history of coronary heart disease, and leisure-time physical activity, WC and WHtR were found to be directly associated with a higher mortality after 4.8 years median follow-up. The multivariable-adjusted HRs for mortality of WHtR (cut-off points: 0.60, 0.65, 0.70) were 1.02 (0.78–1.34), 1.30 (0.97–1.75) and 1.55 (1.06–2.26). When we used WC (cut-off points: 100, 105 and 110 cm), the multivariable adjusted Hazard Ratios (HRs) for mortality were 1.18 (0.88–1.59), 1.02 (0.74–1.41) and 1.57 (1.19–2.08). In all analyses, BMI exhibited weaker associations with mortality than WC or WHtR. The direct association between WHtR and overall mortality was consistent within each of the three intervention arms of the trial. Conclusions Our study adds further support to a stronger association of abdominal obesity than BMI with total mortality among elderly subjects at high risk of cardiovascular disease. We did not find evidence to support that the PREDIMED intervention was able to counterbalance the harmful effects of increased adiposity on total mortality. Trial Registration Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN35739639 PMID:25072784

Nucleated red blood cells as predictors of mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS): an observational study.

PubMed

Menk, Mario; Giebelhäuser, Lena; Vorderwülbecke, Gerald; Gassner, Martina; Graw, Jan A; Weiss, Björn; Zimmermann, Mathias; Wernecke, Klaus-D; Weber-Carstens, Steffen

2018-03-27

Nucleated red blood cells (NRBCs) in critically ill patients are associated with increased mortality and poor outcome. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive value of NRBCs in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). This observational study was conducted at an ARDS referral center and included patients from 2007 to 2014. Daily NRBC counts were assessed and the predictive validity of NRBCs on mortality was statistically evaluated. A cutoff for prediction of mortality based on NRBCs was evaluated using ROC analysis and specified according to Youden's method. Multivariate nonparametric analysis for longitudinal data was applied to prove for differences between groups over the whole time course. Independent predictors of mortality were identified with multiple logistic and Cox' regression analyses. Kaplan-Meier estimations visualized the survival; the corresponding curves were tested for differences with the log-rank test. A total of 404 critically ill ARDS patients were analyzed. NRBCs were found in 75.5% of the patients, which was associated with longer length of ICU stay [22 (11; 39) vs. 14 (7; 26) days; p < 0.05] and higher mortality rates (50.8 vs. 27.3%; p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis with mortality as response showed NRBC positivity per se to be an independent risk factor for mortality in ARDS with a doubled risk for ICU death (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.16-3.55; p < 0.05). Also, NRBC value at ICU admission was found to be an independent risk factor for mortality (OR 3.25; 95% CI 1.09-9.73, p = 0.035). A cutoff level of 220 NRBC/µl was associated with a more than tripled risk of ICU death (OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.93-5.35; p < 0.0001). ARDS patients below this threshold level had a significant survival advantage (median survival 85 days vs. 29 days; log rank p < 0.001). Presence of a severe ARDS was identified as independent risk factor for the occurrence of NRBCs > 220/µl (OR 1.81; 95% CI 1.1-2.97; p < 0.05). NRBCs may predict mortality in ARDS with high prognostic power. The presence of NRBCs in the blood might be regarded as a marker of disease severity indicating a higher risk of ICU death.

Cluster analysis of social and environment inequalities of infant mortality. A spatial study in small areas revealed by local disease mapping in France

PubMed Central

Padilla, Cindy M.; Deguen, Severine; Lalloue, Benoit; Blanchard, Olivier; Beaugard, Charles; Troude, Florence; Navier, Denis Zmirou; Vieira, Verónica M.

2014-01-01

Mapping spatial distributions of disease occurrence can serve as a useful tool for identifying exposures of public health concern. Infant mortality is an important indicator of the health status of a population. Recent literature suggests that neighborhood deprivation status can modify the effect of air pollution on preterm delivery, a known risk factor for infant mortality. We investigated the effect of neighborhood social deprivation on the association between exposure to ambient air NO2 and infant mortality in the Lille and Lyon metropolitan areas, north and center of France, respectively, between 2002 and 2009. We conducted an ecological study using a neighborhood deprivation index estimated at the French census block from the 2006 census data. Infant mortality data were collected from local councils and geocoded using the address of residence. We generated maps using generalized additive models, smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for covariates. We used permutation tests to examine the overall importance of location in the model and identify areas of increased and decreased risk. The average death rate was 4.2‰ and 4.6‰ live births for the Lille and Lyon metropolitan areas during the period. We found evidence of statistically significant precise clusters of elevated infant mortality for Lille and an east-west gradient of infant mortality risk for Lyon. Exposure to NO2 did not explain the spatial relationship. The Lille MA, socioeconomic deprivation index explained the spatial variation observed. These techniques provide evidence of clusters of significantly elevated infant mortality risk in relation with the neighborhood socioeconomic status. This method could be used for public policy management to determine priority areas for interventions. Moreover, taking into account the relationship between social and environmental exposure may help identify areas with cumulative inequalities. PMID:23563257

Left dominant circulation increases mortality in acute coronary syndrome: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies involving 255,718 patients.

PubMed

Khan, Abdur R; Khan Luni, Faraz; Bavishi, Chirag; Khan, Sobia; Eltahawy, Ehab A

2016-08-01

The effect of coronary dominance on mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains unclear. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of coronary dominance in patients with ACS. Several data sources were searched for studies which compared studies that compared outcomes between right and left dominant coronary circulation in patients with ACS. The measured outcomes were in-hospital, 30-day or long-term mortality as reported in individual studies. The Generic inverse variance method was used in a random-effects model to pool mortality as an outcome. Odds ratio (OR) was calculated for mortality in the left dominant circulation relative to a right dominant one. Sub-group analysis was performed after stratification of mortality by duration. A total of 5 studies with 8 comparisons and 255,718 participants revealed an increased risk mortality (OR = 1.27 (95% CI: 1.13 - 1.42; P < 0.0001; I(2)  = 34%). Sub-group analysis revealed that the increased risk was evident at all time periods after the ACS; in-hospital (OR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.07 - 1.76; P = 0.01; I(2)  = 50%), at 30 days (OR = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.14 - 2.52; P = 0.009; I(2)  = 18%) and long-term (OR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.03 - 1.28; P = 0.01; I(2)  = 0%). In this meta-analysis we found that there is an increased risk of mortality with LD coronary circulation in patients with ACS. The knowledge of coronary dominance may not only be helpful as an incremental prognostic factor beyond pre-procedural risk scores in all patients with ACS, but may also aid in clinical decision making in a subset of these patients. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Bronchiectasis Severity Index. An International Derivation and Validation Study

PubMed Central

Goeminne, Pieter; Aliberti, Stefano; McDonnell, Melissa J.; Lonni, Sara; Davidson, John; Poppelwell, Lucy; Salih, Waleed; Pesci, Alberto; Dupont, Lieven J.; Fardon, Thomas C.; De Soyza, Anthony; Hill, Adam T.

2014-01-01

Rationale: There are no risk stratification tools for morbidity and mortality in bronchiectasis. Identifying patients at risk of exacerbations, hospital admissions, and mortality is vital for future research. Objectives: This study describes the derivation and validation of the Bronchiectasis Severity Index (BSI). Methods: Derivation of the BSI used data from a prospective cohort study (Edinburgh, UK, 2008–2012) enrolling 608 patients. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality and hospitalization over 4-year follow-up. The score was validated in independent cohorts from Dundee, UK (n = 218); Leuven, Belgium (n = 253); Monza, Italy (n = 105); and Newcastle, UK (n = 126). Measurements and Main Results: Independent predictors of future hospitalization were prior hospital admissions, Medical Research Council dyspnea score greater than or equal to 4, FEV1 < 30% predicted, Pseudomonas aeruginosa colonization, colonization with other pathogenic organisms, and three or more lobes involved on high-resolution computed tomography. Independent predictors of mortality were older age, low FEV1, lower body mass index, prior hospitalization, and three or more exacerbations in the year before the study. The derived BSI predicted mortality and hospitalization: area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.74–0.86) for mortality and AUC 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.84–0.91) for hospitalization, respectively. There was a clear difference in exacerbation frequency and quality of life using the St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire between patients classified as low, intermediate, and high risk by the score (P < 0.0001 for all comparisons). In the validation cohorts, the AUC for mortality ranged from 0.81 to 0.84 and for hospitalization from 0.80 to 0.88. Conclusions: The BSI is a useful clinical predictive tool that identifies patients at risk of future mortality, hospitalization, and exacerbations across healthcare systems. PMID:24328736

Differences in open versus laparoscopic gastric bypass mortality risk using the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS).

PubMed

Brolin, Robert E; Cody, Ronald P; Marcella, Stephen W

2015-01-01

The Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS) was developed to ascertain preoperative mortality risk of patients having bariatric surgery. To date there has not been a comparison between open and laparoscopic operations using the OS-MRS. To determine whether there are differences in mortality risk between open and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass (RYGB) using the OS-MRS. Three university-affiliated hospitals. The 90-day mortality of 2467 consecutive patients who had primary open (1574) or laparoscopic (893) RYGB performed by one surgeon was determined. Univariate and multivariate analysis using 5 OS-MRS risk factors including body mass index (BMI) gender, age>45, presence of hypertension and preoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) risk was performed in each group. Each patient was placed in 1 of 3 OS-MRS risk classes based on the number of risks: A (0-1), B (2-3), and C (4-5). Preoperative BMI and DVT risk factors were significantly greater in the open group (OG). Preoperative age was significantly greater in the laparoscopic group (LG). There were significantly more class B and C patients in LG. Ninety-day mortality rates for OG and LG patients were 1.0% and .9%, respectively. Pulmonary embolism was the most common cause of death. All deaths in LG occurred during first 4 years of that experience. Mortality rate by class was A = .1%; B = 1.5%; C = 2.3%. The difference in mortality between class B and C patients was not significant. Univariate analysis in the OG indicated that BMI, age, gender, and DVT risk were significant predictors of mortality. In the LG only BMI and DVT were significant predictors of death. Presence of hypertension was not a significant predictor in either group. Multivariate analysis excluding hypertension found that age was predictive of mortality in the OG while BMI (P = .057) and gender (P = .065) approached statistical significance. Conversely, only BMI was predictive of mortality in the LG with age approaching significance (P = .058). In multivariate analysis DVT risk was not predictive of mortality in either group. There are significant differences in the predictive value of the OS-MRS between open and laparoscopic RYGB. Although laparoscopic patients were significantly older versus the open patients, age was not predictive of mortality after laparoscopic RYGB. BMI trended toward increased mortality risk in both groups. Changes in technique and protocol likely contributed toward no mortality during the last 6 years of our laparoscopic experience. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Baseline renal insufficiency and risk of death among HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia

PubMed Central

Mulenga, Lloyd B.; Kruse, Gina; Lakhi, Shabir; Cantrell, Ronald A.; Reid, Stewart E.; Zulu, Isaac; Stringer, Elizabeth M.; Krishnasami, Zipporah; Mwinga, Alwyn; Saag, Michael S.; Stringer, Jeffrey S. A.; Chi, Benjamin H.

2009-01-01

Objective To examine the association between baseline renal insufficiency and mortality among adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in urban African setting. Design Open cohort evaluation Methods We examined mortality according to baseline renal function among adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia. Renal function was assessed by the Cockcroft-Gault method, the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation, and serum creatinine. Results From April 2004 to September 2007, 25,779 individuals started ART with an available creatinine measurement at baseline. When creatinine clearance was calculated by the Cockcroft-Gault method, 8,456 (33.5%) had renal insufficiency: 73.5% were mild (60-89 mL/min), 23.4% moderate (30-59 mL/min), and 3.1% severe (<30 mL/min). Risk for mortality at or before 90 days was elevated for those with mildly (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]=1.7; 95%CI=1.5-1.9), moderately (AHR=2.3; 95%CI=2.0-2.7), and severely (AHR=4.1; 95%CI=3.1-5.5) reduced creatinine clearance. Mild (AHR=1.4; 95%CI=1.2-1.6), moderate (AHR=1.9; 95%CI=1.5-2.3), and severe (AHR=3.6; 95%CI=2.4-5.5) insufficiency were also associated with increased mortality after 90 days, when compared to those with normal renal function. Trends were similar when renal function was estimated with MDRD or serum creatinine. Conclusions Renal insufficiency at time of ART initiation was prevalent and associated with increased mortality risk among adults in this population. These results have particular relevance for settings like Zambia, where tenofovir - a drug with known nephrotoxicity - has been adopted as part of first-line therapy. This emphasizes the need for resource-appropriate screening algorithms for renal disease, both as part of ART eligibility and pre-treatment assessment. PMID:18753939

Evaluation of Death among the Patients Undergoing Permanent Pacemaker Implantation: A Competing Risks Analysis

PubMed Central

GHAEM, Haleh; GHORBANI, Mohammad; ZARE DORNIANI, Samira

2017-01-01

Background: Permanent artificial pacemaker is one of the important therapies for treatment of cardiac conduction system problems. The present study aimed to determine the association between some predictive variables and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the patients who had undergone pacemaker implantation. Methods: This study was conducted on 1207 patients who had undergone permanent pacemaker implantation in the hospitals affiliated with Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Iran, from Mar 2002 to Mar 2012. The variables that existed in the patients’ medical records included sex, diabetes mellitus, obesity, cerebrovascular accident, cardiomegaly, smoking, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, congenital heart disease, sick sinus syndrome, and atrial fibrillation. Competing risks model was used to assess the association between the predictive variables and cause-specific (i.e., cardiac and vascular) mortality. Results: The patients’ mean age was 66.32±17.92 yr (70.62±14.45 yr in the patients with single-chamber pacemakers vs. 61.91±17.69 yr in those with two-chamber pacemakers) (P<0.001). Sick sinus syndrome and age increased the risk of all-cause mortality, while two-chamber pacemaker decreased this risk. Obesity increased the risk of cardiac death, and diabetes mellitus and heart valve disease increased the risk of vascular death. Conclusion: The variables predicting mortality in all-cause model were completely different from those in cause-specific model. Moreover, death in such patients may occur due to reasons other than pacemaker. Therefore, future studies, particularly prospective ones, are recommended to use competing risks models. PMID:28828325

The potential impact of a social redistribution of specific risk factors on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality: illustration of a method based on population attributable fractions.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje Andreas; Kulhánová, Ivana; Dahl, Espen; Deboosere, Patrick; Dzúrová, Dagmar; van Oyen, Herman; Rychtaríková, Jitka; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Mackenbach, Johan P

2013-01-01

Socioeconomic differences in health are a major challenge for public health. However, realistic estimates to what extent they are modifiable are scarce. This problem can be met through the systematic application of the population attributable fraction (PAF) to socioeconomic health inequalities. The authors used cause-specific mortality data by educational level from Belgium, Norway and Czech Republic and data on the prevalence of smoking, alcohol, lack of physical activity and high body mass index from national health surveys. Information on the impact of these risk factors on mortality comes from the epidemiological literature. The authors calculated PAFs to quantify the impact on socioeconomic health inequalities of a social redistribution of risk factors. The authors developed an Excel tool covering a wide range of possible scenarios and the authors compare the results of the PAF approach with a conventional regression. In a scenario where the whole population gets the risk factor prevalence currently seen among the highly educated inequalities in mortality can be reduced substantially. According to the illustrative results, the reduction of inequality for all risk factors combined varies between 26% among Czech men and 94% among Norwegian men. Smoking has the highest impact for both genders, and physical activity has more impact among women. After discussing the underlying assumptions of the PAF, the authors concluded that the approach is promising for estimating the extent to which health inequalities can be potentially reduced by interventions on specific risk factors. This reduction is likely to differ substantially between countries, risk factors and genders.

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

PubMed Central

Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

2015-01-01

Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

Associations Between Income Inequality and Mortality Among US States: The Importance of Time Period and Source of Income Data

PubMed Central

Lynch, John; Harper, Sam; Kaplan, George A.; Davey Smith, George

2005-01-01

Objectives. We used census data to examine associations between income inequality and mortality among US states for each decade from 1949 to 1999 and tax return income data to estimate associations for 1989. Methods. Cross-sectional correlation analyses were used to assess income inequality–mortality relationships. Results. Census income analyses revealed little association between income inequality and mortality for 1949, 1959, or 1969. An association emerged for 1979 and strengthened for 1989 but weakened for 1999. When income inequality was based on tax return data, associations were weaker for both 1989 and 1999. Conclusions. The strong association between income inequality and mortality observed among US states for 1989 was not observed for other periods from 1949 through 1999. In addition, when tax return rather than census data were used, the association was weaker for 1989 and 1999. The potential for distal social determinants of population health (e.g., income inequality) to affect mortality is contingent on how such determinants influence levels of proximal risk factors and the time lags between exposure to those risk factors and effects on specific health outcomes. PMID:16006417

Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers.

PubMed

Gasparrini, Antonio; Pizzo, Anna Maria; Gorini, Giuseppe; Seniori Costantini, Adele; Silvestri, Stefano; Ciapini, Cesare; Innocenti, Andrea; Berry, Geoffrey

2008-01-01

Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups. To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers. The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung. The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005-2050 was 15-30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23-35 for mesothelioma. This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts.

Daytime Napping and the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Study and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Yamada, Tomohide; Hara, Kazuo; Shojima, Nobuhiro; Yamauchi, Toshimasa; Kadowaki, Takashi

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: To summarize evidence about the association between daytime napping and the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, and to quantify the potential dose-response relation. Design: Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Methods and Results: Electronic databases were searched for articles published up to December 2014 using the terms nap, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. We selected well-adjusted prospective cohort studies reporting risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality related to napping. Eleven prospective cohort studies were identified with 151,588 participants (1,625,012 person-years) and a mean follow-up period of 11 years (60% women, 5,276 cardiovascular events, and 18,966 all-cause deaths). Pooled analysis showed that a long daytime nap (≥ 60 min/day) was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (rate ratio [RR]: 1.82 [1.22–2.71], P = 0.003, I2 = 37%) compared with not napping. All-cause mortality was associated with napping for ≥ 60 min/day (RR: 1.27 [1.11–1.45], P < 0.001, I2 = 0%) compared with not napping. In contrast, napping for < 60 min/day was not associated with cardiovascular disease (P = 0.98) or all-cause mortality (P = 0.08). Meta-analysis demonstrated a significant J-curve dose-response relation between nap time and cardiovascular disease (P for nonlinearity = 0.01). The RR initially decreased from 0 to 30 min/day. Then it increased slightly until about 45 min/day, followed by a sharp increase at longer nap times. There was also a positive linear relation between nap time and all-cause mortality (P for non-linearity = 0.97). Conclusions: Nap time and cardiovascular disease may be associated via a J-curve relation. Further studies are needed to confirm the efficacy of a short nap. Citation: Yamada T, Hara K, Shojima N, Yamauchi T, Kadowaki T. Daytime napping and the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: a prospective study and dose-response meta-analysis. SLEEP 2015;38(12):1945–1953. PMID:26158892

2014 CRL Build Study of Life Insurance Applicants.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Dolan, Vera F; Stout, Robert L

2016-01-01

Objective .- Determine the impact of build on insurance applicant mortality accounting for smoking, laboratory test values and blood pressure. Method .- The study consisted of 2,051,370 applicants tested at Clinical Reference Laboratory between 1993 and 2007 with build and cotinine measurements available whose body mass index (BMI) was between 15 and 47. Vital status was determined as of September, 2011 by the Social Security Death Master File. Excluded from the primary study were applicants with HbA1c values ≥6.5%, systolic BP ≥141 mmHg, albumin values ≤3.3 g/dL or total cholesterol values ≤130 mg/dL. Relative mortality was determined by Cox regression analysis for bands of BMI split by age, sex and smoking status (urine cotinine positive). Results .- A majority of applicants had BMI >24 (overweight or obese by WHO criteria). After the exclusions noted above, relative mortality does not increase by >34% unless BMI is <20 (<18 for female non-smokers age 18 to 59) or BMI is >34. BMI values in the range of 22 to 24 and 25 to 29, overall, had similar and the lowest relative risks. For most nonsmokers, risk was lowest in the lower of these two BMI bands but for smokers (and non-smoking males age 60 to 89) risk was lowest in the higher BMI band. Additional analysis showed limited reduction in relative risk by accounting for all laboratory test values as well as continuing the exclusions. Eliminating the exclusions resulted in only a modest increase in relative risk because the mortality rate of the reference band increased as well. Conclusion .- After excluding elevated HbA1c and blood pressure (associated with high BMI) and low albumin and cholesterol (associated with low BMI) which are usually evaluated separately, mortality varies by a limited degree for BMI 20 to 34. Accounting for the mortality impact of other test values, in addition to the exclusions noted, reduced mortality associated with high BMI to a limited extent, but had little impact on mortality associated with low BMI.

Gender inequalities in external cause mortality in Brazil, 2010.

PubMed

de Moura, Erly Catarina; Gomes, Romeu; Falcão, Marcia Thereza Couto; Schwarz, Eduardo; das Neves, Alice Cristina Medeiros; Santos, Wallace

2015-03-01

To estimate mortality rate by external causes in Brazil. Mortality national 2010's data corrected by underreport and adjusted by direct method were evaluated by sex according to age, region of residence, race/skin color, education and conjugal situation. The standardized mortality coefficient of external causes is higher among men (178 per thousand inhabitants) than among women (24 per thousand inhabitants), being higher among young men (20 to 29 years old) in all regions and decreasing with aging. The mortality rate reaches almost nine times higher among men comparably to women, being higher in North and Northeast regions. The death incidence by external causes is higher among men (36.4%) than among women (10.9%), meaning 170% more risk for men. The risk is also higher among the youngest: 6.00 for men and 7.36 for women. The main kind of death by external causes among men is aggressions, followed by transport accidents, the opposite of women. Besides sex, age is the more important predictive factor of precocious death by external causes, pointing the need of many and various sectors in order to construct new identities of non violence.

Changing the "Normal Range" for Blood Pressure from 140/90 to 130/Any Improves Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2015-01-01

Objective .- Redefine the "normal" reference range for blood pressure from <140/90 to one that more effectively identifies individuals with increased mortality risk. Method .- Data from the recently published 2014 CRL blood pressure study was used. It includes 2,472,706 life insurance applicants tested by Clinical Reference Laboratory from 1993 to 2007 with follow-up for vital status using the September 2011 Social Security Death Master File. Various upper limits of blood pressure (BP in mm Hg) were evaluated to determine if any was superior to the current, commonly used limit of 140/90 in identifying individuals with increased mortality risk. Results .- An alternative reference range using a systolic BP (SBP) <130 with any diastolic BP (DBP) included 84% of life insurance applicants. It had a lower mortality rate and narrower range of relative risk than <140/90, including 89% as many applicants but only 68% as many deaths. This pattern of lives and deaths was consistent across age and sex. Conclusion .- Switching to a "normal" reference range of SBP <130 offers superior risk assessment relative to using BP <140/90 while still including a sufficient percentage of the population.

Age-Based Methods to Explore Time-Related Variables in Occupational Epidemiology Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janice P. Watkins, Edward L. Frome, Donna L. Cragle

2005-08-31

Although age is recognized as the strongest predictor of mortality in chronic disease epidemiology, a calendar-based approach is often employed when evaluating time-related variables. An age-based analysis file, created by determining the value of each time-dependent variable for each age that a cohort member is followed, provides a clear definition of age at exposure and allows development of diverse analytic models. To demonstrate methods, the relationship between cancer mortality and external radiation was analyzed with Poisson regression for 14,095 Oak Ridge National Laboratory workers. Based on previous analysis of this cohort, a model with ten-year lagged cumulative radiation doses partitionedmore » by receipt before (dose-young) or after (dose-old) age 45 was examined. Dose-response estimates were similar to calendar-year-based results with elevated risk for dose-old, but not when film badge readings were weekly before 1957. Complementary results showed increasing risk with older hire ages and earlier birth cohorts, since workers hired after age 45 were born before 1915, and dose-young and dose-old were distributed differently by birth cohorts. Risks were generally higher for smokingrelated than non-smoking-related cancers. It was difficult to single out specific variables associated with elevated cancer mortality because of: (1) birth cohort differences in hire age and mortality experience completeness, and (2) time-period differences in working conditions, dose potential, and exposure assessment. This research demonstrated the utility and versatility of the age-based approach.« less

The Human Impact of Tsunamis: a Historical Review of Events 1900-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Introduction. Although rare, tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable loss of life and injury as well as widespread damage to the natural and built environments. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of tsunamis on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of tsunamis were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1900 to mid 2009 of tsunami events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review to October 2012 of publications. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between tsunami mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. There were 255,195 deaths (range 252,619-275,784) and 48,462 injuries (range 45,466-51,457) as a result of tsunamis from 1900 to 2009. The majority of deaths (89%) and injuries reported during this time period were attributed to a single event –the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Findings from the systematic literature review indicate that the primary cause of tsunami-related mortality is drowning, and that females, children and the elderly are at increased mortality risk. The few studies that reported on tsunami-related injury suggest that males and young adults are at increased injury-risk. Conclusions. Early warning systems may help mitigate tsunami-related loss of life. PMID:23857277

The human impact of tsunamis: a historical review of events 1900-2009 and systematic literature review.

PubMed

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D

2013-04-16

Introduction. Although rare, tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable loss of life and injury as well as widespread damage to the natural and built environments. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of tsunamis on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of tsunamis were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1900 to mid 2009 of tsunami events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review to October 2012 of publications. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between tsunami mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. There were 255,195 deaths (range 252,619-275,784) and 48,462 injuries (range 45,466-51,457) as a result of tsunamis from 1900 to 2009. The majority of deaths (89%) and injuries reported during this time period were attributed to a single event -the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Findings from the systematic literature review indicate that the primary cause of tsunami-related mortality is drowning, and that females, children and the elderly are at increased mortality risk. The few studies that reported on tsunami-related injury suggest that males and young adults are at increased injury-risk. Conclusions. Early warning systems may help mitigate tsunami-related loss of life.

The association of coffee intake with liver cancer incidence and chronic liver disease mortality in male smokers.

PubMed

Lai, G Y; Weinstein, S J; Albanes, D; Taylor, P R; McGlynn, K A; Virtamo, J; Sinha, R; Freedman, N D

2013-09-03

Coffee intake is associated with reduced risk of liver cancer and chronic liver disease as reported in previous studies, including prospective ones conducted in Asian populations where hepatitis B viruses (HBVs) and hepatitis C viruses (HCVs) are the dominant risk factors. Yet, prospective studies in Western populations with lower HBV and HCV prevalence are sparse. Also, although preparation methods affect coffee constituents, it is unknown whether different methods affect disease associations. We evaluated the association of coffee intake with incident liver cancer and chronic liver disease mortality in 27,037 Finnish male smokers, aged 50-69, in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study, who recorded their coffee consumption and were followed up to 24 years for incident liver cancer or chronic liver disease mortality. Multivariate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models. Coffee intake was inversely associated with incident liver cancer (RR per cup per day=0.82, 95% CI: 0.73-0.93; P-trend across categories=0.0007) and mortality from chronic liver disease (RR=0.55, 95% CI: 0.48-0.63; P-trend<0.0001). Inverse associations persisted in those without diabetes, HBV- and HCV-negative cases, and in analyses stratified by age, body mass index, alcohol and smoking dose. We observed similar associations for those drinking boiled or filtered coffee. These findings suggest that drinking coffee may have benefits for the liver, irrespective of whether coffee was boiled or filtered.

Cancer mortality in German carbon black workers 1976–98

PubMed Central

Wellmann, J; Weiland, S K; Neiteler, G; Klein, G; Straif, K

2006-01-01

Background Few studies have investigated cancer risks in carbon black workers and the findings were inconclusive. Methods The current study explores the mortality of a cohort of 1535 male German blue‐collar workers employed at a carbon black manufacturing plant for at least one year between 1960 and 1998. Vital status and causes of death were assessed for the period 1976–98. Occupational histories and information on smoking were abstracted from company records. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and Poisson regression models were calculated. Results The SMRs for all cause mortality (observed deaths (obs) 332, SMR 120, 95% CI 108 to 134), and mortality from lung cancer (obs 50, SMR 218, 95% CI 161 to 287) were increased using national rates as reference. Comparisons to regional rates from the federal state gave SMRs of 120 (95% CI 107 to 133) and 183 (95% CI 136 to 241), respectively. However, there was no apparent dose response relationship between lung cancer mortality and several indicators of occupational exposure, including years of employment and carbon black exposure. Conclusions The mortality from lung cancer among German carbon black workers was increased. The high lung cancer SMR can not fully be explained by selection, smoking, or other occupational risk factors, but the results also provide little evidence for an effect of carbon black exposure. PMID:16497850

Large Daily Stock Variation Is Associated with Cardiovascular Mortality in Two Cities of Guangdong, China

PubMed Central

Lin, Hualiang; Zhang, Yonghui; Xu, Yanjun; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Luo, Yuan; Xu, Xiaojun; He, Yanhui; Ma, Wenjun

2013-01-01

Objective The current study aimed to examine the effects of daily change of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index on cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou and Taishan, China. Methods Daily mortality and stock performance data during 2006–2010 were collected to construct the time series for the two cities. A distributed lag non-linear model was utilized to examine the effect of daily stock index changes on cardiovascular mortality after controlling for potential confounding factors. Results We observed a delayed non-linear effect of the stock index change on cardiovascular mortality: both rising and declining of the stock index were associated with increased cardiovascular deaths. In Guangzhou, the 15–25 lag days cumulative relative risk of an 800 index drop was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.38–3.14), and 2.38 (95% CI: 1.31–4.31) for an 800 stock index increase on the cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In Taishan, the cumulative relative risk over 15–25 days lag was 1.65 (95% CI: 1.13–2.42) for an 800 index drop and 2.08 (95% CI: 1.26–3.42) for an 800 index rising, respectively. Conclusions Large ups and downs in daily stock index might be important predictor of cardiovascular mortality. PMID:23874619

Mortality associated with lithium and valproate treatment of US Veterans Health Administration patients with mental disorders.

PubMed

Smith, Eric G; Austin, Karen L; Kim, Hyungjin Myra; Eisen, Susan V; Kilbourne, Amy M; Miller, Donald R; Zivin, Kara; Hannemann, Claire; Sauer, Brian C; Valenstein, Marcia

2015-07-01

BackgroundThe mood stabilisers lithium and valproate might plausibly have differing associations with mortality because of differing effects on mental health and various physiological indicators.AimsTo assess associations between lithium, valproate and non-suicide mortality.MethodIntention-to-treat, propensity score-matched cohort study.ResultsLithium was associated with significantly reduced non-suicide mortality in the intent-to-treat cohort over 0-90 days (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.67, 95% CI 0.51-0.87) but not longer. In secondary analyses, a sizeable reduction in mortality was observed during active treatment with lithium across all time periods studied (for example 365-day HR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.84), but significantly increased risks were observed among patients discontinuing lithium by 180 days (HR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.01-2.37).ConclusionsPatients initiating lithium had lower non-suicide mortality over 0-90 days than patients initiating valproate and consistently lower non-suicide mortality among patients maintaining treatment, but elevated risk among patients discontinuing treatment by 180 days. Although residual confounding or selection effects cannot be excluded, this study suggests potential benefits to enhancing lithium treatment persistence and the monitoring of patients discontinuing lithium. There is a need for further research. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Death and suicide among former child and adolescent psychiatric patients

PubMed Central

Engqvist, Ulf; Rydelius, Per-Anders

2006-01-01

Background Increased mortality rates among previous child and adolescent psychiatry (CAP) patients have been found in Scandinavian studies up to the 1980s. The suicide risk in this group has been estimated to be almost five times higher than expected. This article addresses two questions: Do Swedish CAP patients continue to risk premature death and what kind of information related to psychiatric symptoms and/or behavior problems can predict later suicide? Methods Hospital files, Sweden's census databases (including immigration and emigration) and administrative databases (including the Swedish Hospital Discharge register and the Persons Convicted of Offences register), and the Cause of Death register were examined to determine the mortality rate in a group of 1,400 former CAP inpatients and outpatients over a period of 12–33 years. Observed and expected numbers of deceased were calculated with the prospective method and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) method. The relative risk or the risk ratio (RR) is presented with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Significance level tests were made using two-by-two tables and chi-square tests. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used for survival analysis. Results Twenty-four males and 14 females died. Compared with the general population, the standardized mortality ratio in this group of CAP patients was significantly higher in both sexes. Behavioral problems, school problems, and co-morbid alcohol or drug abuse and criminality (including alcohol-related crimes) were found to be important predictors. Thirty-two deaths were attributed to suicide, intoxication, drug overdose, or accident; one patient died of an alcohol abuse-related disorder, and five patients died of natural causes. Suicide was the most common cause of death, but only 2 of these 19 cases were initially admitted for attempted suicide. Conclusion We suggest that suicide and death prevention among CAP patients may not be a psychiatric issue per se but a future function of society's juvenile social-welfare investments and juvenile-delinquency prevention programs. PMID:17081290

Loss to follow-up in the Australian HIV Observational Database

PubMed Central

McManus, Hamish; Petoumenos, Kathy; Brown, Katherine; Baker, David; Russell, Darren; Read, Tim; Smith, Don; Wray, Lynne; Giles, Michelle; Hoy, Jennifer; Carr, Andrew; Law, Matthew

2015-01-01

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV-positive cohorts is an important surrogate for interrupted clinical care which can potentially influence the assessment of HIV disease status and outcomes. After preliminary evaluation of LTFU rates and patient characteristics, we evaluated the risk of mortality by LTFU status in a high resource setting. Methods Rates of LTFU were measured in the Australian HIV Observational Database for a range of patient characteristics. Multivariate repeated measures regression methods were used to identify determinants of LTFU. Mortality by LTFU status was ascertained using linkage to the National Death Index. Survival following combination antiretroviral therapy initiation was investigated using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method and Cox proportional hazards models. Results Of 3,413 patients included in this analysis, 1,632 (47.8%) had at least one episode of LTFU after enrolment. Multivariate predictors of LTFU included viral load (VL)>10,000 copies/ml (Rate ratio (RR) 1.63 (95% confidence interval (CI):1.45–1.84) (ref ≤400)), time under follow-up (per year) (RR 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02–1.04)) and prior LTFU (per episode) (RR 1.15 (95% CI: 1.06–1.24)). KM curves for survival were similar by LTFU status (p=0.484). LTFU was not associated with mortality in Cox proportional hazards models (univariate hazard ratio (HR) 0.93 (95% CI: 0.69–1.26) and multivariate HR 1.04 (95% CI: 0.77–1.43)). Conclusions Increased risk of LTFU was identified amongst patients with potentially higher infectiousness. We did not find significant mortality risk associated with LTFU. This is consistent with timely re-engagement with treatment, possibly via high levels of unreported linkage to other health care providers. PMID:25377928

Population‐based survey methods to quantify associations between human rights violations and health outcomes among internally displaced persons in eastern Burma

PubMed Central

Mullany, Luke C; Richards, Adam K; Lee, Catherine I; Suwanvanichkij, Voravit; Maung, Cynthia; Mahn; Beyrer, Chris; Lee, Thomas J

2007-01-01

Background Case reports of human rights violations have focused on individuals' experiences. Population‐based quantification of associations between rights indicators and health outcomes is rare and has not been documented in eastern Burma. Objective We describe the association between mortality and morbidity and the household‐level experience of human rights violations among internally displaced persons in eastern Burma. Methods Mobile health workers in conflict zones of eastern Burma conducted 1834 retrospective household surveys in 2004. Workers recorded data on vital events, mid‐upper arm circumference of young children, malaria parasitaemia status of respondents and household experience of various human rights violations during the previous 12 months. Results Under‐5 mortality was 218 (95% confidence interval 135 to 301) per 1000 live births. Almost one‐third of households reported forced labour (32.6%). Forced displacement (8.9% of households) was associated with increased child mortality (odds ratio = 2.80), child malnutrition (odds ratio = 3.22) and landmine injury (odds ratio = 3.89). Theft or destruction of the food supply (reported by 25.2% of households) was associated with increased crude mortality (odds ratio = 1.58), malaria parasitaemia (odds ratio = 1.82), child malnutrition (odds ratio = 1.94) and landmine injury (odds ratio = 4.55). Multiple rights violations (14.4% of households) increased the risk of child (incidence rate ratio = 2.18) and crude (incidence rate ratio = 1.75) mortality and the odds of landmine injury (odds ratio = 19.8). Child mortality risk was increased more than fivefold (incidence rate ratio = 5.23) among families reporting three or more rights violations. Conclusions Widespread human rights violations in conflict zones in eastern Burma are associated with significantly increased morbidity and mortality. Population‐level associations can be quantified using standard epidemiological methods. This approach requires further validation and refinement elsewhere. PMID:17873229

Stratification of the Risk of Sudden Death in Nonischemic Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Pimentel, Maurício; Zimerman, Leandro Ioschpe; Rohde, Luis Eduardo

2014-01-01

Despite significant therapeutic advancements, heart failure remains a highly prevalent clinical condition associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In 30%-40% patients, the etiology of heart failure is nonischemic. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is capable of preventing sudden death and decreasing total mortality in patients with nonischemic heart failure. However, a significant number of patients receiving ICD do not receive any kind of therapy during follow-up. Moreover, considering the situation in Brazil and several other countries, ICD cannot be implanted in all patients with nonischemic heart failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify patients at an increased risk of sudden death because these would benefit more than patients at a lower risk, despite the presence of heart failure in both risk groups. In this study, the authors review the primary available methods for the stratification of the risk of sudden death in patients with nonischemic heart failure. PMID:25352509

Estimated mortality of adult HIV-infected patients starting treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

Yiannoutsos, Constantin Theodore; Johnson, Leigh Francis; Boulle, Andrew; Musick, Beverly Sue; Gsponer, Thomas; Balestre, Eric; Law, Matthew; Shepherd, Bryan E; Egger, Matthias

2012-01-01

Objective To provide estimates of mortality among HIV-infected patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy. Methods We report on the death rates from 122 925 adult HIV-infected patients aged 15 years or older from East, Southern and West Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America. We use two methods to adjust for biases in mortality estimation resulting from loss from follow-up, based on double-sampling methods applied to patient outreach (Kenya) and linkage with vital registries (South Africa), and apply these to mortality estimates in the other three regions. Age, gender and CD4 count at the initiation of therapy were the factors considered as predictors of mortality at 6, 12, 24 and >24 months after the start of treatment. Results Patient mortality was high during the first 6 months after therapy for all patient subgroups and exceeded 40 per 100 patient years among patients who started treatment at low CD4 count. This trend was seen regardless of region, demographic or disease-related risk factor. Mortality was under-reported by up to or exceeding 100% when comparing estimates obtained from passive monitoring of patient vital status. Conclusions Despite advances in antiretroviral treatment coverage many patients start treatment at very low CD4 counts and experience significant mortality during the first 6 months after treatment initiation. Active patient tracing and linkage with vital registries are critical in adjusting estimates of mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income settings. PMID:23172344

Risk factors for mortality during the 2002 landslides in Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia.

PubMed

Sanchez, Carlos; Lee, Tze-San; Young, Stacy; Batts, Dahna; Benjamin, Jefferson; Malilay, Josephine

2009-10-01

This study examines health effects resulting from landslides in Chuuk during Tropical Storm Chata'an in July 2002, and suggests strategies to prevent future mortality. In August 2002, we conducted a cross-sectional survey to identify risk factors for mortality during landslides, which included 52 survivors and 40 surrogates for 43 decedents to identify risk factors for death. Findings suggest that 1) females had a higher mortality rate from this event than males, and 2) children aged 5-14 years had a 10-fold increase in mortality when compared with annual mortality rates from all causes. Awareness of landslides occurring elsewhere and knowledge of natural warning signs were significantly associated with lower risks of death; being outside during landslides was not associated with reduced mortality. In Chuuk, improving communication systems during tropical storms and increasing knowledge of natural warnings can reduce the risk for mortality during landslides.

[Estimation of the excess of lung cancer mortality risk associated to environmental tobacco smoke exposure of hospitality workers].

PubMed

López, M José; Nebot, Manel; Juárez, Olga; Ariza, Carles; Salles, Joan; Serrahima, Eulàlia

2006-01-14

To estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with environmental tobacco (ETS) smoke exposure among hospitality workers. The estimation was done using objective measures in several hospitality settings in Barcelona. Vapour phase nicotine was measured in several hospitality settings. These measurements were used to estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure for a 40 year working life, using the formula developed by Repace and Lowrey. Excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure was higher than 145 deaths per 100,000 workers in all places studied, except for cafeterias in hospitals, where excess lung cancer mortality risk was 22 per 100,000. In discoteques, for comparison, excess lung cancer mortality risk is 1,733 deaths per 100,000 workers. Hospitality workers are exposed to ETS levels related to a very high excess lung cancer mortality risk. These data confirm that ETS control measures are needed to protect hospital workers.

Long-Term Effects of Changes in Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Body Mass Index on All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Men: The Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Lee, Duck-chul; Sui, Xuemei; Artero, Enrique G.; Lee, I-Min; Church, Timothy S.; McAuley, Paul A.; Stanford, Fatima C.; Kohl, Harold W.; Blair, Steven N.

2011-01-01

Background The combined associations of changes in cardiorespiratory fitness and body mass index (BMI) with mortality remain controversial and uncertain. Methods and Results We examined the independent and combined associations of changes in fitness and BMI with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in 14 345 men (mean age 44 years) with at least two medical examinations. Fitness, in metabolic equivalents (METs), was estimated from a maximal treadmill test. BMI was calculated using measured weight and height. Changes in fitness and BMI between the baseline and last examinations over 6.3 years were classified into loss, stable, or gain groups. During 11.4 years of follow-up after the last examination, 914 all-cause and 300 CVD deaths occurred. The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of all-cause and CVD mortality were 0.70 (0.59 to 0.83) and 0.73 (0.54 to 0.98) for stable fitness, and 0.61 (0.51 to 0.73) and 0.58 (0.42 to 0.80) for fitness gain, respectively, compared with fitness loss in multivariable analyses including BMI change. Every 1-MET improvement was associated with 15% and 19% lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively. BMI change was not associated with all-cause or CVD mortality after adjusting for possible confounders and fitness change. In the combined analyses, men who lost fitness had higher all-cause and CVD mortality risks regardless of BMI change. Conclusions Maintaining or improving fitness is associated with a lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality in men. Preventing age-associated fitness loss is important for longevity regardless of BMI change. PMID:22144631

Validation of the DECAF score to predict hospital mortality in acute exacerbations of COPD

PubMed Central

Echevarria, C; Steer, J; Heslop-Marshall, K; Stenton, SC; Hickey, PM; Hughes, R; Wijesinghe, M; Harrison, RN; Steen, N; Simpson, AJ; Gibson, GJ; Bourke, SC

2016-01-01

Background Hospitalisation due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is common, and subsequent mortality high. The DECAF score was derived for accurate prediction of mortality and risk stratification to inform patient care. We aimed to validate the DECAF score, internally and externally, and to compare its performance to other predictive tools. Methods The study took place in the two hospitals within the derivation study (internal validation) and in four additional hospitals (external validation) between January 2012 and May 2014. Consecutive admissions were identified by screening admissions and searching coding records. Admission clinical data, including DECAF indices, and mortality were recorded. The prognostic value of DECAF and other scores were assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results In the internal and external validation cohorts, 880 and 845 patients were recruited. Mean age was 73.1 (SD 10.3) years, 54.3% were female, and mean (SD) FEV1 45.5 (18.3) per cent predicted. Overall mortality was 7.7%. The DECAF AUROC curve for inhospital mortality was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.87) in the internal cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87) in the external cohort, and was superior to other prognostic scores for inhospital or 30-day mortality. Conclusions DECAF is a robust predictor of mortality, using indices routinely available on admission. Its generalisability is supported by consistent strong performance; it can identify low-risk patients (DECAF 0–1) potentially suitable for Hospital at Home or early supported discharge services, and high-risk patients (DECAF 3–6) for escalation planning or appropriate early palliation. Trial registration number UKCRN ID 14214. PMID:26769015

Sedentary Behavior and Mortality in Older Women

PubMed Central

Seguin, Rebecca; Buchner, David M.; Liu, Jingmin; Allison, Matthew; Manini, Todd; Wang, Ching-Yun; Manson, JoAnn E.; Messina, Catherine R.; Patel, Mahesh J.; Moreland, Larry; Stefanick, Marcia L.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.

2013-01-01

Background Although epidemiologic studies have shown associations between sedentary behavior and mortality, few have focused on older women with adequate minority representation and few have controlled for both physical activity and functional status. Purpose The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between sedentary time and total; cardiovascular disease (CVD); coronary heart disease (CHD); and cancer mortality in a prospective, multiethnic cohort of postmenopausal women. Methods The study population included 92,234 women aged 50–79 years at baseline (1993–1998) who participated in the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study through September 2010. Self-reported sedentary time was assessed by questionnaire and examined in 4 categories (≤4, >4–8, ≥8–11, >11 hours). Mortality risks were examined using Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for confounders. Models were also stratified by age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, physical activity, physical function, and chronic disease to examine possible effect modification. Analyses were conducted in 2012–2013. Results The mean follow-up period was 12 years. Compared with women who reported the least sedentary time, women reporting the highest sedentary time had increased risk of all-cause mortality in the multivariate model (HR=1.12, 95% CI=1.05, 1.21). Results comparing the highest versus lowest categories for CVD, CHD, and cancer mortality were as follows: HR=1.13, 95% CI=0.99, 1.29; HR=1.27, 95% CI=1.04, 1.55; and HR=1.21, 95% CI=1.07, 1.37, respectively. For all mortality outcomes, there were significant linear tests for trend. Conclusions There was a linear relationship between greater amounts of sedentary time and mortality risk after controlling for multiple potential confounders. PMID:24439345

Fatalism, optimism, spirituality, depressive symptoms and stroke outcome: A population-based analysis

PubMed Central

Morgenstern, Lewis B.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Skolarus, Lesli E.; Garcia, Nelda; Risser, Jan M.H.; Wing, Jeffrey J.; Smith, Melinda A.; Zahuranec, Darin B.; Lisabeth, Lynda D.

2011-01-01

Background and Purpose We sought to describe the association of spirituality, optimism, fatalism and depressive symptoms with initial stroke severity, stroke recurrence and post-stroke mortality. Methods Stroke cases June 2004–December 2008 were ascertained in Nueces County, Texas. Patients without aphasia were queried on their recall of depressive symptoms, fatalism, optimism, and non-organizational spirituality before stroke using validated scales. The association between scales and stroke outcomes was studied using multiple linear regression with log-transformed NIHSS and Cox proportional hazards regression for recurrence and mortality. Results 669 patients participated, 48.7% were women. In fully adjusted models, an increase in fatalism from the first to third quartile was associated with all-cause mortality (HR=1.41, 95%CI: 1.06, 1.88), marginally associated with risk of recurrence (HR=1.35, 95%CI: 0.97, 1.88), but not stroke severity. Similarly, an increase in depressive symptoms was associated with increased mortality (HR=1.32, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.72), marginally associated with stroke recurrence (HR=1.22, CI: 0.93, 1.62), and with a 9.0% increase in stroke severity (95%CI: 0.01, 18.0). Depressive symptoms altered the fatalism-mortality association such that the association of fatalism and mortality was more pronounced for patients reporting no depressive symptoms. Neither spirituality nor optimism conferred a significant effect on stroke severity, recurrence or mortality. Conclusions Among patients who have already had a stroke, self-described pre-stroke depressive symptoms and fatalism, but not optimism or spirituality, are associated with increased risk of stroke recurrence and mortality. Unconventional risk factors may explain some of the variability in stroke outcomes observed in populations, and may be novel targets for intervention. PMID:21940963

Variation in ICU Utilization and Mortality After Blunt Splenic Injury

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Elinore J.; Wiebe, Douglas J.; Martin, Niels D.; Pascual, Jose L.; Reilly, Patrick M.; Holena, Daniel N.

2016-01-01

Background While trauma patients are frequently cared for in the ICU, admission triage criteria are unclear and may vary among providers and institutions. The benefits of close monitoring must be weighed against the economic and opportunity costs of an ICU admission. Materials and Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients treated for blunt splenic injuries at 30 level I and II Pennsylvania trauma centers, 2011–2014. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the relationship between ICU admission and mortality, adjusting for patient characteristics, injury characteristics, and physiology. We calculated center-level observed-to-expected ratios for ICU utilization and mortality and evaluated correlations with Spearman’s rho. We compared the proportion of patients receiving critical care procedures, such as mechanical ventilation or central line placement, between high- and low-ICU-utilization centers. Results Of 2,587 patients with blunt splenic injuries, 63.9% (1,654) were admitted to the ICU. Median injury severity score (ISS) was 17 overall, 13 for non-ICU patients and 17 for ICU patients (p < 0.001). In multivariable logistic regression, ICU admission was not significantly associated with mortality. Center-level risk-adjusted ICU admission rates ranged from 17.9% to 87.3%. Risk-adjusted mortality rates ranged from 1.2% to 9.6%. There was no correlation between O:E ratios for ICU utilization and mortality (rs = −0.2595, p=0.2103). Proportionately fewer ICU patients at high-utilization centers received critical care procedures than at low-utilization centers. Conclusions Risk-adjusted ICU utilization rates for splenic trauma varied widely among trauma centers, with no clear relationship to mortality. Standardizing ICU admission criteria could improve resource utilization without increasing mortality. PMID:27363642

Mortality in Patients with Myalgic Encephalomyelitis and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

PubMed Central

McManimen, Stephanie L.; Devendorf, Andrew R.; Brown, Abigail A.; Moore, Billie C.; Moore, James H.; Jason, Leonard A.

2016-01-01

Background There is a dearth of research examining mortality in individuals with myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME) and chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). Some studies suggest there is an elevated risk of suicide and earlier mortality compared to national norms. However, findings are inconsistent as other researchers have not found significant increases in all-cause mortality for patients. Objective This study sought to determine if patients with ME or CFS are reportedly dying earlier than the overall population from the same cause. Methods Family, friends, and caregivers of deceased individuals with ME or CFS were recruited through social media, patient newsletters, emails, and advocate websites. This study analyzed data including cause and age of death for 56 individuals identified as having ME or CFS. Results The findings suggest patients in this sample are at a significantly increased risk of earlier all-cause (M = 55.9 years) and cardiovascular-related (M = 58.8 years) mortality, and they had a directionally lower mean age of death for suicide (M = 41.3 years) and cancer (M =66.3 years) compared to the overall U.S. population [M = 73.5 (all-cause), 77.7 (cardiovascular), 47.4 (suicide), and 71.1 (cancer) years of age]. Conclusions The results suggest there is an increase in risk for earlier mortality in patients with ME and CFS. Due to the small sample size and over-representation of severely ill patients, the findings should be replicated to determine if the directional differences for suicide and cancer mortality are significantly different from the overall U.S. population. PMID:28070451

Serum potassium, mortality, and kidney outcomes in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

PubMed Central

Chen, Yan; Chang, Alex R.; McAdams DeMarco, Mara A.; Inker, Lesley A.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Ballew, Shoshana H.; Coresh, Josef; Grams, Morgan E.

2017-01-01

Objectives To investigate the association between serum potassium, mortality, and kidney outcomes in the general population and whether potassium-altering medications modify these associations. Patients and Methods We studied 15,539 adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to investigate the association of serum potassium at baseline (1987–1989), evaluated categorically (hypokalemia, <3.5 mmol/L; normokalemia, ≥3.5 and < 5.5 mmol/L; hyperkalemia, ≥5.5 mmol/L) and continuously using linear spline terms (knots at 3.5 and 5.5 mmol/L), with mortality, sudden cardiac death (SCD), incident chronic kidney disease (CKD), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The end date of follow up for all outcomes was December 31, 2012. We also evaluated whether classes of potassium-altering medications modified the association between serum potassium and adverse outcomes. Results Overall, 2.7% of the participants had hypokalemia and 2.1% had hyperkalemia. In a fully adjusted model, hyperkalemia was significantly associated with mortality (HR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.04–1.49) but not SCD, CKD, or ESRD. Hypokalemia as a categorical variable was not associated with any outcome; however, associations of hypokalemia with all-cause mortality and kidney outcomes were observed among those who were not taking potassium-wasting diuretics (all P for interaction <.001). Conclusions Higher values of serum potassium were associated with higher risk of mortality in the general population. Lower levels of potassium were associated with adverse kidney outcomes and mortality among participants not taking potassium-wasting diuretics. PMID:27499535

Quantitative estimated exposure to vinyl chloride and risk of angiosarcoma of the liver and hepatocellular cancer in the US industry-wide vinyl chloride cohort: mortality update through 2013

PubMed Central

Mundt, Kenneth A; Dell, Linda D; Crawford, Lori; Gallagher, Alexa E

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate mortality risks of angiosarcoma of the liver (ASL), primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and other cancers among 9951 men employed between 1942 and 1972 at 35 US vinyl chloride (VC) or polyvinyl chloride plants followed for mortality through 31 December 2013. Methods SMR and time-dependent Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to evaluate mortality risks by cumulative VC exposure. Results Liver cancer mortality was elevated (SMR=2.87, 95% CI 2.40 to 3.40), and ASL and HCC were strongly associated with cumulative VC exposure ≥865 parts per million-years (ppm-years) (ASL: HR=36.3, 95% CI 13.1 to 100.5; and HCC: HR=5.3, 95% CI 1.6 to 17.7 for ≥2271 ppm-years). Excess deaths due to connective and soft tissue cancers (SMR=2.43, 95% CI 1.48 to 3.75), mesothelioma (SMR=2.29, 95% CI 1.18 to 4.00) and explosions (SMR=3.43, 95% CI 1.25 to 7.47) were seen. Mortalities due to melanoma, brain cancer, lung cancer and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma were not increased or associated with VC exposure. Conclusion The association between VC and ASL first reported in this cohort 44 years ago persisted and was strongest among workers most highly exposed. VC exposure also was associated with HCC mortality, although it remains possible that misdiagnosis of early ASLs influenced findings. PMID:28490663

The Prediction of the Risk Level of Pulmonary Embolism and Deep Vein Thrombosis through Artificial Neural Network.

PubMed

Agharezaei, Laleh; Agharezaei, Zhila; Nemati, Ali; Bahaadinbeigy, Kambiz; Keynia, Farshid; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Iranpour, Abedin; Agharezaei, Moslem

2016-10-01

Venous thromboembolism is a common cause of mortality among hospitalized patients and yet it is preventable through detecting the precipitating factors and a prompt diagnosis by specialists. The present study has been carried out in order to assist specialists in the diagnosis and prediction of the risk level of pulmonary embolism in patients, by means of artificial neural network. A number of 31 risk factors have been used in this study in order to evaluate the conditions of 294 patients hospitalized in 3 educational hospitals affiliated with Kerman University of Medical Sciences. Two types of artificial neural networks, namely Feed-Forward Back Propagation and Elman Back Propagation, were compared in this study. Through an optimized artificial neural network model, an accuracy and risk level index of 93.23 percent was achieved and, subsequently, the results have been compared with those obtained from the perfusion scan of the patients. 86.61 percent of high risk patients diagnosed through perfusion scan diagnostic method were also diagnosed correctly through the method proposed in the present study. The results of this study can be a good resource for physicians, medical assistants, and healthcare staff to diagnose high risk patients more precisely and prevent the mortalities. Additionally, expenses and other unnecessary diagnostic methods such as perfusion scans can be efficiently reduced.

Mortality risk stratification in severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients.

PubMed

Beliaev, A M; Marshall, R J; Smith, W; Windsor, J A

2012-03-01

The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to identify early risk factors of mortality and develop a mortality risk stratification instrument for severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. It has been shown that Jehovah's Witness patients with the Auckland Anaemia Mortality Risk Score (Auckland AMRS) of 0 to 3 had 4% mortality, Auckland AMRS 4 to 5 32%, Auckland AMRS 6 to 7 50% and Auckland AMRS 8 and above 83%. It is concluded that the Auckland AMRS predicts mortality of severely anaemic Jehovah's Witness patients. © 2012 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

The human impact of volcanoes: a historical review of events 1900-2009 and systematic literature review.

PubMed

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Dooling, Shayna; Gorokhovich, Yuri

2013-04-16

Introduction. More than 500 million people live within the potential exposure range of a volcano. The risk of catastrophic losses in future eruptions is significant given population growth, proximities of major cities to volcanoes, and the possibility of larger eruptions. The objectives of this review are to describe the impact of volcanoes on the human population, in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of volcanoes were compiled using two methods, a historical review of volcano events from 1900 to 2009 from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between volcano mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. There were a total of 91,789 deaths (range: 81,703-102,372), 14,068 injuries (range 11,541-17,922), and 4.72 million people affected by volcanic events between 1900 and 2008. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of numbers injured and affected. The primary causes of mortality in recent volcanic eruptions were ash asphyxiation, thermal injuries from pyroclastic flow, and trauma. Mortality was concentrated with the ten deadliest eruptions accounting for more than 80% of deaths; 84% of fatalities occurred in four locations (the Island of Martinique (France), Colombia, Indonesia, and Guatemala). Conclusions. Changes in land use practices and population growth provide a background for increasing risk; in conjunction with increasing urbanization in at risk areas, this poses a challenge for future volcano preparedness and mitigation efforts.

The Human Impact of Volcanoes: a Historical Review of Events 1900-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Dooling, Shayna; Gorokhovich, Yuri

2013-01-01

Introduction. More than 500 million people live within the potential exposure range of a volcano. The risk of catastrophic losses in future eruptions is significant given population growth, proximities of major cities to volcanoes, and the possibility of larger eruptions. The objectives of this review are to describe the impact of volcanoes on the human population, in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of volcanoes were compiled using two methods, a historical review of volcano events from 1900 to 2009 from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between volcano mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. There were a total of 91,789 deaths (range: 81,703-102,372), 14,068 injuries (range 11,541-17,922), and 4.72 million people affected by volcanic events between 1900 and 2008. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of numbers injured and affected. The primary causes of mortality in recent volcanic eruptions were ash asphyxiation, thermal injuries from pyroclastic flow, and trauma. Mortality was concentrated with the ten deadliest eruptions accounting for more than 80% of deaths; 84% of fatalities occurred in four locations (the Island of Martinique (France), Colombia, Indonesia, and Guatemala). Conclusions. Changes in land use practices and population growth provide a background for increasing risk; in conjunction with increasing urbanization in at risk areas, this poses a challenge for future volcano preparedness and mitigation efforts. PMID:23857374

A novel visualisation tool for climate services: a case study of temperature extremes and human mortality in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, R.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J.; Herrmann, F. R.; Jupp, T. E.; Stephenson, D.; Rodó, X.

2013-12-01

Users of climate information often require probabilistic information on which to base their decisions. However, communicating information contained within a probabilistic forecast presents a challenge. In this paper we demonstrate a novel visualisation technique to display ternary probabilistic forecasts on a map in order to inform decision making. In this method, ternary probabilistic forecasts, which assign probabilities to a set of three outcomes (e.g. low, medium, and high risk), are considered as a point in a triangle of barycentric coordinates. This allows a unique colour to be assigned to each forecast from a continuum of colours defined on the triangle. Colour saturation increases with information gain relative to the reference forecast (i.e. the long term average). This provides additional information to decision makers compared with conventional methods used in seasonal climate forecasting, where one colour is used to represent one forecast category on a forecast map (e.g. red = ';dry'). We use the tool to present climate-related mortality projections across Europe. Temperature and humidity are related to human mortality via location-specific transfer functions, calculated using historical data. Daily mortality data at the NUTS2 level for 16 countries in Europe were obtain from 1998-2005. Transfer functions were calculated for 54 aggregations in Europe, defined using criteria related to population and climatological similarities. Aggregations are restricted to fall within political boundaries to avoid problems related to varying adaptation policies between countries. A statistical model is fit to cold and warm tails to estimate future mortality using forecast temperatures, in a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Using predefined categories of temperature-related mortality risk, we present maps of probabilistic projections for human mortality at seasonal to decadal time scales. We demonstrate the information gained from using this technique compared to more traditional methods to display ternary probabilistic forecasts. This technique allows decision makers to identify areas where the model predicts with certainty area-specific heat waves or cold snaps, in order to effectively target resources to those areas most at risk, for a given season or year. It is hoped that this visualisation tool will facilitate the interpretation of the probabilistic forecasts not only for public health decision makers but also within a multi-sectoral climate service framework.

Premature mortality in active convulsive epilepsy in rural Kenya

PubMed Central

Bottomley, Christian; Fegan, Gregory; Chengo, Eddie; Odhiambo, Rachael; Bauni, Evasius; Neville, Brian; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Sander, Josemir W.; Newton, Charles R.

2014-01-01

Objective: We estimated premature mortality and identified causes of death and associated factors in people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) in rural Kenya. Methods: In this prospective population-based study, people with ACE were identified in a cross-sectional survey and followed up regularly for 3 years, during which information on deaths and associated factors was collected. We used a validated verbal autopsy tool to establish putative causes of death. Age-specific rate ratios and standardized mortality ratios were estimated. Poisson regression was used to identify mortality risk factors. Results: There were 61 deaths among 754 people with ACE, yielding a rate of 33.3/1,000 persons/year. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 6.5. Mortality was higher across all ACE age groups. Nonadherence to antiepileptic drugs (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 3.37), cognitive impairment (aRR 4.55), and age (50+ years) (rate ratio 4.56) were risk factors for premature mortality. Most deaths (56%) were directly related to epilepsy, with prolonged seizures/possible status epilepticus (38%) most frequently associated with death; some of these may have been due to sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). Possible SUDEP was the likely cause in another 7%. Conclusion: Mortality in people with ACE was more than 6-fold greater than expected. This may be reduced by improving treatment adherence and prompt management of prolonged seizures and supporting those with cognitive impairment. PMID:24443454

Diabetic status and the relation of the three domains of glycemic control to mortality in critically ill patients: an international multicenter cohort study.

PubMed

Krinsley, James S; Egi, Moritoki; Kiss, Alex; Devendra, Amin N; Schuetz, Philipp; Maurer, Paula M; Schultz, Marcus J; van Hooijdonk, Roosmarijn T M; Kiyoshi, Morita; Mackenzie, Iain M J; Annane, Djillali; Stow, Peter; Nasraway, Stanley A; Holewinski, Sharon; Holzinger, Ulrike; Preiser, Jean-Charles; Vincent, Jean-Louis; Bellomo, Rinaldo

2013-03-01

Hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and increased glycemic variability have each been independently associated with increased risk of mortality in critically ill patients. The role of diabetic status on modulating the relation of these three domains of glycemic control with mortality remains uncertain. The purpose of this investigation was to determine how diabetic status affects the relation of hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and increased glycemic variability with the risk of mortality in critically ill patients. This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data involving 44,964 patients admitted to 23 intensive care units (ICUs) from nine countries, between February 2001 and May 2012. We analyzed mean blood glucose concentration (BG), coefficient of variation (CV), and minimal BG and created multivariable models to analyze their independent association with mortality. Patients were stratified according to the diagnosis of diabetes. Among patients without diabetes, mean BG bands between 80 and 140 mg/dl were independently associated with decreased risk of mortality, and mean BG bands>or=140 mg/dl, with increased risk of mortality. Among patients with diabetes, mean BG from 80 to 110 mg/dl was associated with increased risk of mortality and mean BG from 110 to 180 mg/dl with decreased risk of mortality. An effect of center was noted on the relation between mean BG and mortality. Hypoglycemia, defined as minimum BG<70 mg/dl, was independently associated with increased risk of mortality among patients with and without diabetes and increased glycemic variability, defined as CV>or=20%, was independently associated with increased risk of mortality only among patients without diabetes. Derangements of more than one domain of glycemic control had a cumulative association with mortality, especially for patients without diabetes. Although hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and increased glycemic variability is each independently associated with mortality in critically ill patients, diabetic status modulates these relations in clinically important ways. Our findings suggest that patients with diabetes may benefit from higher glucose target ranges than will those without diabetes. Additionally, hypoglycemia is independently associated with increased risk of mortality regardless of the patient's diabetic status, and increased glycemic variability is independently associated with increased risk of mortality among patients without diabetes.

Fragmented QRS and mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous intervention for ST-elevation myocardial infarction: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kanjanahattakij, Napatt; Rattanawong, Pattara; Riangwiwat, Tanawan; Prasitlumkum, Narut; Limpruttidham, Nath; Chongsathidkiet, Pakawat; Vutthikraivit, Wasawat; Crossey, Erin

2018-06-22

Fragmented QRS reflects disturbances in the myocardium predisposing the heart to ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Recent studies suggest that fragmented QRS (fQRS) is associated with mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature has not been done. We assessed the association between fQRS and overall mortality in STEMI patients who subsequently underwent PCI by a systematic review and meta-analysis. We comprehensively searched the databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to September 2017. Studies included in our analysis were published cohort (prospective or retrospective) and case-control studies that compared overall mortality among STEMI patient with and without fQRS who underwent PCI. Data from each study were combined using the random-effects, generic inverse variance method of DerSimonian, and Laird to calculate risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Six studies from 2014 to 2017 were included in this meta-analysis involving 2,516 subjects with STEMI who underwent PCI (888 fQRS and 1,628 non-fQRS). Fragmented QRS was associated with overall mortality in STEMI patients who underwent PCI (pooled risk ratio = 3.87; 95% CI 1.96-7.66, I 2  = 43%). Fragmented QRS was associated with increased overall mortality up to threefold. Our study suggests that fQRS could be an important tool for risk assessment in STEMI patients who underwent PCI. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Clinical predictors of mortality following rotational atherectomy and stent implantation in high‐risk patients: A single center experience

PubMed Central

Édes, István F.; Ruzsa, Zoltán; Szabó, György; Nardai, Sándor; Becker, Dávid; Benke, Kálmán; Szilveszter, Bálint

2015-01-01

Objectives Our aim was to assess the procedural success and determine the clinical predictors of postprocedure mortality, following rotational atherectomy (RA) and stenting in high‐risk patients. Background RA is mainly used to facilitate stenting in complex lesions. Outcomes involving RA and stenting have been investigated, yet high‐risk patients have not been adequately described. Methods Data of 218 consecutive patients who underwent RA were evaluated in a prospective register. Primary endpoints were the angiographic success and long‐term mortality. Secondary endpoints were procedural success, consumption of the angioplasty equipment, and periprocedural major adverse cardiac events. The impact of the relevant angiographic and clinical characteristics on long‐term mortality was analyzed using uni‐ and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results Mean age of the patients was 70 ± 8.2 years, diabetes was present in 44%, and chronic renal failure in 29%. Prior myocardial infarction and three‐vessel disease amounted to 42.2% and 32.6%, respectively. Altogether, 52.8% of patients underwent RA after a failed, non‐RA intervention attempt, and 30.7% of cases presented as acute coronary syndromes. Angiographic success was 100%, and all patients received stents after RA. Periprocedural major adverse cardiac events occurred in five (2.3%) patients. Postprocedural death was investigated, with a mean follow‐up of 36 months. Mortality amounted to 37.2%. Multivariate analysis revealed that left ventricular ejection fraction < 50%, glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min, cardiogenic shock, and diabetes were the only independent mortality predictors. Conclusions We have found that RA and stenting is feasible and viable in an elderly high‐risk population, with exceptional procedural success and acceptable long‐term results. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26032270

The association between postdiagnosis dietary supplement use and total mortality differs by diet quality among older female cancer survivors

PubMed Central

Inoue-Choi, Maki; Greenlee, Heather; Oppeneer, Sarah J.; Robien, Kim

2014-01-01

Background Dietary supplements are widely used by cancer survivors. However, health effects among older cancer survivors are unclear. Methods We used the Iowa Women’s Health Study, a prospective cohort study with 2,118 postmenopausal women with a confirmed cancer diagnosis (1986–2002), to evaluate the association between postdiagnosis dietary supplement use assessed in 2004 and subsequent all-cause mortality. Risk of death was evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. We performed stratified analyses by diet quality score, dietary micronutrient intake, and perceived general health. Results Through 2010, 608 deaths were identified. Approximately 85% of the cancer survivors used dietary supplements. Overall supplement use and multivitamin (MV) use were not associated with mortality. Iron supplement use was associated with 39% higher risk of death (95%CI=1.09–1.77). This association was stronger among survivors with deteriorating general health. Folic acid supplement use was associated with higher risk of death, only among survivors reporting low quality diets (HR=2.33, 95%CI=1.33–4.08, pinteraction=0.006). MV use and using a greater number of supplements was associated with a trend towards higher mortality only among those with poor diet quality. Using vitamin E supplements in combination with MV was associated with lower risk of death only among survivors with higher dietary vitamin E intake (HR=0.61, 95%CI=0.39–0.94, pinteraction=0.02). Conclusions Postdiagnosis supplement use was associated with higher mortality among older female cancer survivors with poor general health and/or poor dietary intake. Impact The association between postdiagnosis dietary supplement use and mortality may differ by diet quality and health status among older female cancer survivors. PMID:24621441

Effect of end-stage renal disease on long-term survival after a first-ever mechanical ventilation: a population-based study.

PubMed

Chen, Chin-Ming; Lai, Chih-Cheng; Cheng, Kuo-Chen; Weng, Shih-Feng; Liu, Wei-Lun; Shen, Hsiu-Nien

2015-10-01

Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD(Pos)) usually have multiple comorbidities and are predisposed to acute organ failure and in-hospital mortality. We assessed the effect of ESRD on the poorly understood long-term mortality risk after a first-ever mechanical ventilation (1-MV) for acute respiratory failure. The data source was Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) Research Database. All patients given a 1-MV between 1999 and 2008 from one million randomly selected NHI beneficiaries were identified (n = 38,659). Patients with or without ESRD (ESRD(Neg)) after a 1-MV between 1999 and 2008 were retrospectively compared and followed from the index admission date to death or the end of 2011. ESRD(Pos) patients (n = 1185; mean age: 65.9 years; men: 51.5 %) were individually matched to ESRD(Neg) patients (ratio: 1:8) using a propensity score method. The primary outcome was death after a 1-MV. The effect of ESRD on the risk of death after MV was assessed. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to assess how ESRD affected the mortality risk after a 1-MV. The baseline characteristics of the two cohorts were balanced, but the incidence of mortality was higher in ESRD(Pos) patients than in ESRD(Neg) patients (342.30 versus 179.67 per 1000 person-years; P <0.001; covariate-adjusted hazard ratio: 1.43; 95 % confidence interval: 1.31-1.51). For patients who survived until discharge, ESRD was not associated with long-term (>4 years) mortality. ESRD increased the mortality risk after a 1-MV, but long-term survival seemed similar.

Impact of Molecular Epidemiology and Reduced Susceptibility to Glycopeptides and Daptomycin on Outcomes of Patients with Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia

PubMed Central

Lee, Hao-Yuan; Chen, Chyi-Liang; Liu, Shu-Ying; Yan, Yu-Shan; Chang, Chee-Jen; Chiu, Cheng-Hsun

2015-01-01

Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteremia was associated with high mortality, but the risk factors associated with mortality remain controversial. Methods A retrospective cohort study was designed. All patients with MRSA bacteremia admitted were screened and collected for their clinical presentations and laboratory characteristics. Minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) type of bacterial isolates were determined. Risk factors for mortality were analyzed. Results Most MRSA isolates from the 189 enrolled patients showed reduced susceptibility to antibiotics, including MIC of vancomycin ≥ 1.5 mg/L (79.9%), teicoplanin ≥ 2 mg/L (86.2%), daptomycin ≥ 0.38 mg/L (73.0%) and linezolid ≥ 1.5 mg/L (64.0%). MRSA with vancomycin MIC ≥ 1.5 mg/L and inappropriate initial therapy were the two most important risk factors for mortality (both P < 0.05; odds ratio = 7.88 and 6.78). Hospital-associated MRSA (HA-MRSA), carrying SCCmec type I, II, or III, was associated with reduced susceptibility to vancomycin, teicoplanin or daptomycin and also with higher attributable mortality (all P < 0.05). Creeping vancomycin MIC was linked to higher MIC of teicoplanin and daptomycin (both P < 0.001), but not linezolid (P = 0.759). Conclusions Giving empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics for at least 5 days to treat catheter-related infections, pneumonia, soft tissue infection and other infections was the most important risk factor for acquiring subsequent HA-MRSA infection. Choice of effective anti-MRSA agents for treating MRSA bacteremia should be based on MIC of vancomycin, teicoplanin and daptomycin. Initiation of an effective anti-MRSA agent without elevated MIC in 2 days is crucial for reducing mortality. PMID:26295150

The Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Mortality in Brazil

PubMed Central

de Oliveira Otto, Marcia C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Fahimi, Saman; Singh, Gitanjali; Danaei, Goodarz; Sichieri, Rosely; Monteiro, Carlos A; Louzada, Maria L. C.; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-01-01

Background Trends in food availability and metabolic risk factors in Brazil suggest a shift toward unhealthy dietary patterns and increased cardiometabolic disease risk, yet little is known about the impact of dietary and metabolic risk factors on cardiometabolic mortality in Brazil. Methods Based on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we used comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors on mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in Brazil in 2010. Information on national diets and metabolic risks were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey, the Food and Agriculture Organization database, and large observational studies including Brazilian adults. Relative risks for each risk factor were obtained from meta-analyses of randomized trials or prospective cohort studies; and disease-specific mortality from the GBD 2010 database. We quantified uncertainty using probabilistic simulation analyses, incorporating uncertainty in dietary and metabolic data and relative risks by age and sex. Robustness of findings was evaluated by sensitivity to varying feasible optimal levels of each risk factor. Results In 2010, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and suboptimal diet were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths in Brazil, responsible for 214,263 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 195,073 to 233,936) and 202,949 deaths (95% UI: 194,322 to 211,747), respectively. Among individual dietary factors, low intakes of fruits and whole grains and high intakes of sodium were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths. For premature cardiometabolic deaths (before age 70 years, representing 40% of cardiometabolic deaths), the leading risk factors were suboptimal diet (104,169 deaths; 95% UI: 99,964 to 108,002), high SBP (98,923 deaths; 95%UI: 92,912 to 104,609) and high body-mass index (BMI) (42,643 deaths; 95%UI: 40,161 to 45,111). Conclusion suboptimal diet, high SBP, and high BMI are major causes of cardiometabolic death in Brazil, informing priorities for policy initiatives. PMID:26990765

Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

PubMed

Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

2006-02-01

A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of risk-adjusted mortality data with an E-O plot and a risk-adjusted p chart is feasible and allows the rapid detection of changes in risk-adjusted outcome of intensive care patients. This complements the centralised national database, which is more archival and comparative in nature.

The Role of Pre-Existing Diabetes Mellitus on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Occurrence and Prognosis: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Bray, Freddie; Gao, Shan; Gao, Jing; Li, Hong-Lan; Xiang, Yong-Bing

2011-01-01

Background The impact of pre-existing diabetes mellitus (DM) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and prognosis is complex and unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the association between pre-existing diabetes mellitus and hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and prognosis. Methods We searched PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library from their inception to January, 2011 for prospective epidemiological studies assessing the effect of pre-existing diabetes mellitus on hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence, mortality outcomes, cancer recurrence, and treatment-related complications. Study-specific risk estimates were combined by using fixed effect or random effect models. Results The database search generated a total of 28 prospective studies that met the inclusion criteria. Among these studies, 14 reported the risk of HCC incidence and 6 studies reported risk of HCC specific mortality. Six studies provided a total of 8 results for all-cause mortality in HCC patients. Four studies documented HCC recurrence risks and 2 studies reported risks for hepatic decomposition occurrence in HCC patients. Meta-analysis indicated that pre-existing diabetes mellitus (DM) was significantly associated with increased risk of HCC incidence [meta-relative risk (RR) = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15–2.27] and HCC-specific mortality (meta-RR = 1.88, 95%CI: 1.39–2.55) compared with their non-DM counterparts. HCC patients with pre-existing DM had a 38% increased (95% CI: 1.13–1.48) risk of death from all-causes and 91% increased (95%CI: 1.41–2.57) risk of hepatic decomposition occurrence compared to those without DM. In DM patients, the meta-RR for HCC recurrence-free survival was 1.93(95%CI: 1.12–3.33) compared with non-diabetic patients. Conclusion The findings from the current meta-analysis suggest that DM may be both associated with elevated risks of both HCC incidence and mortality. Furthermore, HCC patients with pre-existing diabetes have a poorer prognosis relative to their non-diabetic counterparts. PMID:22205924

[Impact of daily mean temperature, cold spells, and heat waves on stroke mortality a multivariable Meta-analysis from 12 counties of Hubei province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Y Q; Yu, C H; Bao, J Z

2017-04-10

Objective: To assess the acute effects of daily mean temperature, cold spells, and heat waves on stroke mortality in 12 counties across Hubei province, China. Methods: Data related to daily mortality from stroke and meteorology in 12 counties across Hubei province during 2009-2012, were gathered. Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was first used, to estimate the county-specific associations between daily mean temperature, cold spells, heat waves and stroke mortality. Multivariate Meta-analysis was then applied to pool the community-specific relationships between temperature and stroke mortality (exposure-response relationship) as well as both cold- and- heat-associated risks on mortality at different lag days (lag-response relationship). Results: During 2009-2012, a total population of 6.7 million was included in this study with 42 739 persons died of stroke. An average of 2.7 (from 0.5 to 6.0) stroke deaths occurred daily in each county, with annual average mean temperature as 16.6 ℃ (from 14.7 ℃ to 17.4 ℃) during the study period. An inverse J-shaped association between temperature and stroke mortality was observed at the provincial level. Pooled mortality effect of cold spells showed a 2-3-day delay and lasted about 10 days, while effect of heat waves appeared acute but attenuated within a few days. The mortality risks on cold-spell days ranged from 0.968 to 1.523 in 12 counties at lag 3-14, with pooled effect as 1.180 (95 %CI: 1.043-1.336). The pooled mortality risk (ranged from 0.675 to 2.066) on heat-wave days at lag 0-2 was 1.114 (95 %CI: 1.012-1.227). Conclusions: An inverse J-shaped association between temperature and stroke mortality was observed in Hubei province, China. Both cold spells and heat waves were associated with increased stroke mortality, while different lag patterns were observed in the mortality effects of heat waves and cold spells.

Increased Mortality Risk in Older Adults with Persistently Low or Declining Feelings of Usefulness to Others

PubMed Central

Gruenewald, Tara L.; Karlamangla, Arun S.; Greendale, Gail A.; Singer, Burton H.; Seeman, Teresa E.

2009-01-01

Objectives To determine if persistently low or declining feelings of usefulness to others in later life predicts increased mortality hazard in older adults. Methods Data on change in perceptions of usefulness, health, behavioral and psychosocial covariate factors, and mortality originate from the MacArthur Study of Successful Aging, a prospective study of 1,189 older adults (age 70–79 years). Results Older adults with persistently low feelings of usefulness or who experienced a decline to low feelings of usefulness over the first 3-years of the study experienced a greater hazard of mortality (sociodemographic adjusted HR = 1.75 (95% CI = 1.22 to 2.51)) over a subsequent 9-year follow-up as compared to older adults with persistently high feelings of usefulness. Discussion Older adults with persistently low perceived usefulness or feelings of usefulness that decline to a low level may be a vulnerable group with increased risk for poor health outcomes in later life. PMID:19104034

Long-Term Outcomes Among Adult Survivors of Childhood Central Nervous System Malignancies in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PubMed Central

Liu, Qi; Yasui, Yutaka; Huang, Sujuan; Ness, Kirsten K.; Leisenring, Wendy; Hudson, Melissa M.; Donaldson, Sarah S.; King, Allison A.; Stovall, Marilyn; Krull, Kevin R.; Robison, Leslie L.; Packer, Roger J.

2009-01-01

Background Adult survivors of childhood central nervous system (CNS) malignancies are at high risk for long-term morbidity and late mortality. However, patterns of late mortality, the long-term risks of subsequent neoplasms and debilitating medical conditions, and sociodemographic outcomes have not been comprehensively characterized for individual diagnostic and treatment groups. Methods We collected information on treatment, mortality, chronic medical conditions, and neurocognitive functioning of adult 5-year survivors of CNS malignancies diagnosed between 1970 and 1986 within the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Using competing risk framework, we calculated cumulative mortality according to cause of death and cumulative incidence of subsequent neoplasms according to exposure and dose of cranial radiation therapy (RT). Neurocognitive impairment and socioeconomic outcomes were assessed with respect to dose of CNS radiotherapy to specific brain regions. Cumulative incidence of chronic medical conditions was compared between survivors and siblings using Cox regression models. All tests of statistical significance were two-sided. Results Among all eligible 5-year survivors (n = 2821), cumulative late mortality at 30 years was 25.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 23.4% to 28.3%), due primarily to recurrence and/or progression of primary disease. Patients who received cranial RT of 50 Gy or more (n = 813) had a cumulative incidence of a subsequent neoplasm within the CNS of 7.1% (95% CI = 4.5% to 9.6%) at 25 years from diagnosis compared with 1.0% (95% CI = 0% to 2.3%) for patients who had no RT. Survivors had higher risk than siblings of developing new endocrine, neurological, or sensory complications 5 or more years after diagnosis. Neurocognitive impairment was high and proportional to radiation dose for specific tumor types. There was a dose-dependent association between RT to the frontal and/or temporal lobes and lower rates of employment, and marriage. Conclusions Survivors of childhood CNS malignancies are at high risk for late mortality and for developing subsequent neoplasms and chronic medical conditions. Care providers should be informed of these risks so they can provide risk-directed care and develop screening guidelines. PMID:19535780

The association of clinical indication for exercise stress testing with all-cause mortality: the FIT Project

PubMed Central

Kim, Joonseok; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Juraschek, Stephen P.; Brawner, Clinton; Keteyian, Steve J.; Nasir, Khurram; Dardari, Zeina A.; Blumenthal, Roger S.

2016-01-01

Introduction We hypothesized that the indication for stress testing provided by the referring physician would be an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. Material and methods We studied 48,914 patients from The Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project (The FIT Project) without known congestive heart failure who were referred for a clinical treadmill stress test and followed for 11 ±4.7 years. The reason for stress test referral was abstracted from the clinical test order, and should be considered the primary concerning symptom or indication as stated by the ordering clinician. Hierarchical multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was performed, after controlling for potential confounders including demographics, risk factors, and medication use as well as additional adjustment for exercise capacity in the final model. Results A total of 67% of the patients were referred for chest pain, 12% for shortness of breath (SOB), 4% for palpitations, 3% for pre-operative evaluation, 6% for abnormal prior testing, and 7% for risk factors only. There were 6,211 total deaths during follow-up. Compared to chest pain, those referred for palpitations (HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60–0.86) and risk factors only (HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63–0.82) had a lower risk of all-cause mortality, whereas those referred for SOB (HR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.07–1.23) and pre-operative evaluation (HR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.94–2.30) had an increased risk. In subgroup analysis, referral for palpitations was protective only in those without coronary artery disease (CAD) (HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.62–0.90), while SOB increased mortality risk only in those with established CAD (HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.10–1.44). Conclusions The indication for stress testing is an independent predictor of mortality, showing an interaction with CAD status. Importantly, SOB may be associated with higher mortality risk than chest pain, particularly in patients with CAD. PMID:27186173

Intraseasonal variation in survival and probable causes of mortality in greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blomberg, Erik J.; Gibson, Daniel; Sedinger, James S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.

2013-01-01

The mortality process is a key component of avian population dynamics, and understanding factors that affect mortality is central to grouse conservation. Populations of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus have declined across their range in western North America. We studied cause-specific mortality of radio-marked sage-grouse in Eureka County, Nevada, USA, during two seasons, nesting (2008-2012) and fall (2008-2010), when survival was known to be lower compared to other times of the year. We used known-fate and cumulative incidence function models to estimate weekly survival rates and cumulative risk of cause-specific mortalities, respectively. These methods allowed us to account for temporal variation in sample size and staggered entry of marked individuals into the sample to obtain robust estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality. We monitored 376 individual sage-grouse during the course of our study, and investigated 87 deaths. Predation was the major source of mortality, and accounted for 90% of all mortalities during our study. During the nesting season (1 April - 31 May), the cumulative risk of predation by raptors (0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and mammals (0.08; 95% CI: 0.03-013) was relatively equal. In the fall (15 August - 31 October), the cumulative risk of mammal predation was greater (M(mam) = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.04-0.19) than either predation by raptors (M(rap) = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.00-0.10) or hunting harvest (M(hunt) = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.0-0.06). During both seasons, we observed relatively few additional sources of mortality (e.g. collision) and observed no evidence of disease-related mortality (e.g. West Nile Virus). In general, we found little evidence for intraseasonal temporal variation in survival, suggesting that the nesting and fall seasons represent biologically meaningful time intervals with respect to sage-grouse survival.

Declines in stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Europe between 2004 and 2010: results from the Euro-Peristat project

PubMed Central

Zeitlin, Jennifer; Mortensen, Laust; Cuttini, Marina; Lack, Nicholas; Nijhuis, Jan; Haidinger, Gerald; Blondel, Béatrice; Hindori-Mohangoo, Ashna D

2016-01-01

Background Stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates declined in Europe between 2004 and 2010. We hypothesised that declines might be greater for countries with higher mortality in 2004 and disproportionally affect very preterm infants at highest risk. Methods Data about live births, stillbirths and neonatal deaths by gestational age (GA) were collected using a common protocol by the Euro-Peristat project in 2004 and 2010. We analysed stillbirths at ≥28 weeks GA in 22 countries and live births ≥24 weeks GA for neonatal mortality in 18 countries. Per cent changes over time were assessed by calculating risk ratios (RR) for stillbirth, neonatal mortality and preterm birth rates in 2010 vs 2004. We used meta-analysis techniques to derive pooled RR using random-effects models overall, by GA subgroups and by mortality level in 2004. Results Between 2004 and 2010, stillbirths declined by 17% (95% CI 10% to 23%), with a range from 1% to 39% by country. Neonatal mortality declined by 29% (95% CI 23% to 35%) with a range from 9% to 67%. Preterm birth rates did not change: 0% (95% CI −3% to 3%). Mortality declines were of a similar magnitude at all GA; mortality levels in 2004 were not associated with RRs. Conclusions Stillbirths and neonatal deaths declined at all gestational ages in countries with both high and low levels of mortality in 2004. These results raise questions about how low-mortality countries achieve continued declines and highlight the importance of improving care across the GA spectrum. PMID:26719590

High mortality after ALPPS for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma: case-control analysis including the first series from the international ALPPS registry

PubMed Central

Olthof, Pim B.; Coelen, Robert J.S.; Wiggers, Jimme K.; Koerkamp, Bas Groot; Malago, Massimo; Hernandez-Alejandro, Roberto; Topp, Stefan A.; Vivarelli, Marco; Aldrighetti, Luca A.; Campos, Ricardo Robles; Oldhafer, Karl J.; Jarnagin, William R.; van Gulik, Thomas M.

2017-01-01

Introduction Resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) entails high-risk surgery with substantial postoperative mortality reported up to 18%, even in specialized centers. The aim of this study was to compare outcomes of PHC patients who underwent associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy (ALPPS) to patients with a small functional liver remnant who underwent resection without ALPSS. Methods All patients who underwent ALPPS for PHC were identified from the international ALPPS registry and matched controls were selected from a standard resection cohort from two centers based on future remnant liver size. Outcomes included morbidity, mortality, and overall survival. Results Of the 37 patients who had undergone ALPPS for PHC in the registry, 29 had sufficient data for analyses. ALPPS for PHC was associated with a 48% (14/29) 90-day mortality and median OS of 6 months. A total of 257 patients underwent major liver resection for PHC without ALPPS. The 90-day mortality was 13% and median OS 46 months. The 29 ALPPS patients were matched to 29 patients resected without ALPPS, with similar future liver remnant volume (P=0.480). Mortality in the matched control group was 24% (P=0.100) and median OS was 27 months (P = 0.064). Discussion Outcomes of ALPPS for PHC appear inferior when compared to standard extended resections in high-risk patients. Considering these outcomes, portal vein embolization should remain the preferred method to increase future remnant liver volume in PHC patients. ALPPS is not recommended for PHC due to the 48% 90-day mortality in expert centers. PMID:28279621

Individual and Center-Level Factors Affecting Mortality Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

Alleman, Brandon W.; Li, Lei; Dagle, John M.; Smith, P. Brian; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Laughon, Matthew M.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Goldberg, Ronald N.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Murray, Jeffrey C.; Cotten, C. Michael; Shankaran, Seetha; Walsh, Michele C.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Ellsbury, Dan L.; Hale, Ellen C.; Newman, Nancy S.; Wallace, Dennis D.; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine factors affecting center differences in mortality for extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. METHODS: We analyzed data for 5418 ELBW infants born at 16 Neonatal Research Network centers during 2006–2009. The primary outcomes of early mortality (≤12 hours after birth) and in-hospital mortality were assessed by using multilevel hierarchical models. Models were developed to investigate associations of center rates of selected interventions with mortality while adjusting for patient-level risk factors. These analyses were performed for all gestational ages (GAs) and separately for GAs <25 weeks and ≥25 weeks. RESULTS: Early and in-hospital mortality rates among centers were 5% to 36% and 11% to 53% for all GAs, 13% to 73% and 28% to 90% for GAs <25 weeks, and 1% to 11% and 7% to 26% for GAs ≥25 weeks, respectively. Center intervention rates significantly predicted both early and in-hospital mortality for infants <25 weeks. For infants ≥25 weeks, intervention rates did not predict mortality. The variance in mortality among centers was significant for all GAs and outcomes. Center use of interventions and patient risk factors explained some but not all of the center variation in mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Center intervention rates explain a portion of the center variation in mortality, especially for infants born at <25 weeks’ GA. This finding suggests that deaths may be prevented by standardizing care for very early GA infants. However, differences in patient characteristics and center intervention rates do not account for all of the observed variability in mortality; and for infants with GA ≥25 weeks these differences account for only a small part of the variation in mortality. PMID:23753096

Association of blood pressure in late adolescence with subsequent mortality: cohort study of Swedish male conscripts

PubMed Central

Neovius, Martin; Tynelius, Per; Rasmussen, Finn

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate the nature and magnitude of relations of systolic and diastolic blood pressures in late adolescence to mortality. Design Nationwide cohort study. Setting General community in Sweden. Participants Swedish men (n=1 207 141) who had military conscription examinations between 1969 and 1995 at a mean age of 18.4 years, followed up for a median of 24 (range 0-37) years. Main outcome measures Total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and non-cardiovascular mortality. Results During follow-up, 28 934 (2.4%) men died. The relation of systolic blood pressure to total mortality was U shaped, with the lowest risk at a systolic blood pressure of about 130 mm Hg. This pattern was driven by the relation to non-cardiovascular mortality, whereas the relation to cardiovascular mortality was monotonically increasing (higher risk with higher blood pressure). The relation of diastolic blood pressure to mortality risk was monotonically increasing and stronger than that of systolic blood pressure, in terms of both relative risk and population attributable fraction (deaths that could be avoided if blood pressure was in the optimal range). Relations to cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality were similar, with an apparent risk threshold at a diastolic blood pressure of about 90 mm Hg, below which diastolic blood pressure and mortality were unrelated, and above which risk increased steeply with higher diastolic blood pressures. Conclusions In adolescent men, the relation of diastolic blood pressure to mortality was more consistent than that of systolic blood pressure. Considering current efforts for earlier detection and prevention of risk, these observations emphasise the risk associated with high diastolic blood pressure in young adulthood. PMID:21343202

Circulating Omega-6 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids and Total and Cause-Specific Mortality: The Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Wu, Jason HY; Lemaitre, Rozenn N; King, Irena B; Song, Xiaoling; Psaty, Bruce M; Siscovick, David S; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2014-01-01

Background While omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids(n-6 PUFA) have been recommended to reduce CHD, controversy remains about benefits vs. harms, including concerns over theorized pro-inflammatory effects of n-6 PUFA. We investigated associations of circulating n-6 PUFA including linoleic acid(LA, the major dietary PUFA), γ-linolenic acid(GLA), dihomo-γ-linolenic acid(DGLA), and arachidonic acid(AA),with total and cause-specific mortality in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a community-based US cohort. Methods and Results Among 2,792 participants(age≥65y) free of CVD at baseline, plasma phospholipid n-6 PUFAwere measured at baseline using standardized methods. All-cause and cause-specific mortality, and total incident CHD and stroke, were assessed and adjudicated centrally. Associations of PUFA with risk were assessed by Cox regression. During 34,291 person-years of follow-up(1992–2010), 1,994 deaths occurred(678 cardiovascular deaths), with 427 fatal and 418 nonfatal CHD, and 154 fatal and 399 nonfatal strokes. In multivariable models, higher LA was associated with lower total mortality, with extreme-quintile HR=0.87(P-trend=0.005). Lower death was largely attributable to CVD causes, especially nonarrhythmic CHD mortality(HR=0.51, 95%CI=0.32–0.82, P-trend=0.001). Circulating GLA, DGLA, and AA were not significantly associated with total or cause-specific mortality; e.g., for AA and CHD death, the extreme-quintile HR was 0.97 (95%CI=0.70–1.34, P-trend=0.87). Evaluated semi-parametrically, LA showed graded inverse associations with total mortality(P=0.005). There was little evidence that associations of n-6 PUFA with total mortality varied by age, sex, race, or plasma n-3 PUFA. Evaluating both n-6 and n-3 PUFA, lowest risk was evident with highest levels of both. Conclusions High circulating LA, but not other n-6 PUFA, was inversely associated with total and CHD mortality in older adults. PMID:25124495

The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions.

PubMed

Ambler, Graeme K; Gohel, Manjit S; Mitchell, David C; Loftus, Ian M; Boyle, Jonathan R

2015-01-01

Accurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data. Using data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. A total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P < .001 and P = .001, respectively). Discrimination remained excellent when only elective procedures were considered. There was no evidence of miscalibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. We have developed accurate models to assess risk of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Rural Residential Fires

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen; Zwerling, Craig

2007-01-01

Context and Purpose: Rural households report high fire-related mortality and injury rates, but few studies have examined the risk factors for fires. This study aims to identify occupant and household characteristics that are associated with residential fires in a rural cohort. Methods: Of 1,005 households contacted in a single rural county, 691…

Two denominators for one numerator: the example of neonatal mortality.

PubMed

Harmon, Quaker E; Basso, Olga; Weinberg, Clarice R; Wilcox, Allen J

2018-06-01

Preterm delivery is one of the strongest predictors of neonatal mortality. A given exposure may increase neonatal mortality directly, or indirectly by increasing the risk of preterm birth. Efforts to assess these direct and indirect effects are complicated by the fact that neonatal mortality arises from two distinct denominators (i.e. two risk sets). One risk set comprises fetuses, susceptible to intrauterine pathologies (such as malformations or infection), which can result in neonatal death. The other risk set comprises live births, who (unlike fetuses) are susceptible to problems of immaturity and complications of delivery. In practice, fetal and neonatal sources of neonatal mortality cannot be separated-not only because of incomplete information, but because risks from both sources can act on the same newborn. We use simulations to assess the repercussions of this structural problem. We first construct a scenario in which fetal and neonatal factors contribute separately to neonatal mortality. We introduce an exposure that increases risk of preterm birth (and thus neonatal mortality) without affecting the two baseline sets of neonatal mortality risk. We then calculate the apparent gestational-age-specific mortality for exposed and unexposed newborns, using as the denominator either fetuses or live births at a given gestational age. If conditioning on gestational age successfully blocked the mediating effect of preterm delivery, then exposure would have no effect on gestational-age-specific risk. Instead, we find apparent exposure effects with either denominator. Except for prediction, neither denominator provides a meaningful way to define gestational-age-specific neonatal mortality.

Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials

PubMed Central

Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Anderson, Stewart J.; Bergh, Jonas; Dodwell, David; Ewertz, Marianne; Gray, Richard; Jagsi, Reshma; Pierce, Lori; Pritchard, Kathleen I.; Swain, Sandra; Wang, Zhe; Wang, Yaochen; Whelan, Tim; Peto, Richard; McGale, Paul

2017-01-01

Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence, smoking can determine the net effect of radiotherapy on mortality, but smoking cessation substantially reduces radiotherapy risk. PMID:28319436

Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials.

PubMed

Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K; Aznar, Marianne C; Anderson, Stewart J; Bergh, Jonas; Dodwell, David; Ewertz, Marianne; Gray, Richard; Jagsi, Reshma; Pierce, Lori; Pritchard, Kathleen I; Swain, Sandra; Wang, Zhe; Wang, Yaochen; Whelan, Tim; Peto, Richard; McGale, Paul

2017-05-20

Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence, smoking can determine the net effect of radiotherapy on mortality, but smoking cessation substantially reduces radiotherapy risk.

Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Ikeda, Nayu; Inoue, Manami; Iso, Hiroyasu; Ikeda, Shunya; Satoh, Toshihiko; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Imano, Hironori; Saito, Eiko; Katanoda, Kota; Sobue, Tomotaka; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Naghavi, Mohsen; Ezzati, Majid; Shibuya, Kenji

2012-01-01

Background The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan. Methods and Findings We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution. Conclusions Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22291576

Association of Host Genetic Risk Factors with the Course of Cytomegalovirus Retinitis in Patients Infected with HIV

PubMed Central

Sezgin, Efe; Van Natta, Mark L.; Ahuja, Alka; Lyon, Alice; Srivastava, Sunil; Troyer, Jennifer L.; O’Brien, Stephen J.; Jabs, Douglas A.

2010-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the effects of previously reported host genetics factors that influence cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis incidence, progression to AIDS, and efficacy of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for mortality, retinitis progression, and retinal detachment in patients with CMV retinitis and AIDS in the era of HAART. Design Prospective, multicenter, observational study. Methods Cox proportional hazards model based genetic association tests examined the influence of IL-10R1_S420L, CCR5Δ32, CCR2-V64I, CCR5 P1, and SDF-3`A polymorphisms among patients with mortality, retinitis progression, and retinal detachment. Participants were 203 European American and 117 African American patients with AIDS and CMV retinitis. Results European American patients with the CCR5 +.P1.+ promoter haplotype showed increased risk for mortality (HR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.00–3.40; P=0.05). Although the same haplotype also trended for increased risk for mortality in African American patients, the result was not significant (HR=2.28; 95% CI: 0.93–5.60; P=0.07). However, this haplotype was associated with faster retinitis progression in African Americans (HR=5.22; 95% CI: 1.54–17.71; P=0.007). Increased risk of retinitis progression was also evident for African American patients with the SDF1-3′A variant (HR=3.89; 95% CI: 1.42–10.60; P=0.008). In addition, the SDF1-3′A variant increased the retinal detachment risk in this patient group (HR=3.05; 95% CI: 1.01–9.16; P=0.05). Conclusion Besides overall immune health, host genetic factors influence mortality, retinitis progression, and retinal detachment in patients with AIDS and CMV retinitis that are receiving HAART. PMID:21396623

Transient post-operative atrial fibrillation predicts short and long term adverse events following CABG

PubMed Central

Becker, Matthew; Galla, John; Blackstone, Eugene; Kapadia, Samir R.

2014-01-01

Objective To assess the relationship between the development of transient post-operative atrial fibrillation (TPOAF) following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and risk of long-term mortality. Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) following CABG is common and associated with increased morbidity and mortality in the perioperative period. However the impact of TPOAF and its management on long-term morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG surgery remains unclear. Methods The Cleveland Clinic Cardiovascular Information Registry was used to identify 5,205 consecutive patients who underwent CABG between January 1993 and December 2005. Patients with TPOAF (n=1,490) were compared to those without post-operative AF (n=3,645) for the endpoints of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke at 1 year. Results Overall rates of 1-year mortality, MI and stroke were 3.7%, 0.8%, and 2.6%, respectively. Patients with TPOAF had an increased risk of death at 1 year as compared to patients without POAF (6.4% vs. 2.7%; P<0.001), but there was not an increased risk of stroke or MI. Multivariate analysis identified TPOAF as an independent predictor of death at 1 year (HR 1.89, 95% CI, 1.42-2.53; P<0.001). After propensity matching, patients who developed TPOAF experienced a significantly increased risk of death compared with those without TPOAF (HR 1.96, 95% CI, 1.34-2.86; P<0.001). Conclusions In patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG, the presence of TPOAF identifies a subgroup of patients at increased risk for all-cause mortality. Future prospective studies to determine potential beneficial interventions in this large population are warranted. PMID:25414823

The Importance of Abnormal Chloride Homeostasis in Stable Chronic Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Grodin, Justin L.; Verbrugge, Frederik H.; Ellis, Stephen G.; Mullens, Wilfried; Testani, Jeffrey M.; Wilson Tang MD, W. H.

2015-01-01

Background The aim of this analysis was to determine the long-term prognostic value of lower serum chloride in patients with stable chronic heart failure. Electrolyte abnormalities are prevalent in patients with chronic heart failure. Little is known regarding the prognostic implications of lower serum chloride. Methods and Results Serum chloride was measured in 1,673 consecutively consented stable patients with a history of heart failure undergoing elective diagnostic coronary angiography. All patients were followed for 5-year all-cause mortality, and survival models were adjusted for variables that confounded the chloride-risk relationship. The average chloride level was 102±4 mEq/L. Over 6,772 person-years of follow-up, there were 547 deaths. Lower chloride (per standard deviation decrease) was associated with a higher adjusted risk of mortality (HR 1.29, 95%CI 1.12–1.49, P<0.001). Chloride levels net-reclassified risk in 10.4% (P=0.03) when added to a multivariable model (with a resultant C-statistic of 0.70), in which sodium levels were not prognostic (P=0.30). In comparison to those with above first quartile chloride (≥101 mEq/L) and sodium (≥138 meq/L), subjects with first quartile chloride had a higher adjusted mortality risk, whether they had first quartile sodium (HR 1.35, 95%CI 1.08–1.69, P=0.008) or higher (HR 1.43, 95%CI 1.12–1.85, P=0.005). However, subjects with first quartile sodium but above first quartile chloride had no association with mortality (P=0.67). Conclusions Lower serum chloride levels are independently and incrementally associated with increased mortality risk in patients with chronic heart failure. A better understanding of the biological role of serum chloride is warranted. PMID:26721916

Determinants of neonatal mortality in rural and urban Nigeria: Evidence from a population-based national survey.

PubMed

Adewuyi, Emmanuel O; Zhao, Yun

2017-02-01

Significant reduction in the global burden of neonatal mortality was achieved through the millennium development goals. In Nigeria, however, only a marginal reduction was realized. This study assesses the rural-urban differences in neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and the associated risk factors in Nigeria. The dataset from the 2013 Nigeria demographic and health survey (NDHS), disaggregated by rural-urban residence (n = 20 449 and 9935, respectively), was explored using univariate, bivariate, and multivariable analysis. Complex samples analysis was applied to adjust for the unequal selection probabilities due to the multi-stage cluster sampling method used in the 2013 NDHS. The adjusted relationship between the outcome and predictor variables was assessed on multi-level logistic regression analysis. NMR for rural and urban populations was 36 and 28 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. Risk factors in urban residence were lack of electricity access (adjusted OR [AOR], 1.555; 95%CI: 1.089-2.220), small birth size (as a proxy for low birthweight; AOR, 3.048; 95%CI: 2.047-4.537), and male gender (AOR, 1.666; 95%CI: 1.215-2.284). Risk factors in rural residence were small birth size (a proxy for low birthweight; AOR, 2.118; 95%CI: 1.600-2.804), and birth interval <2 years (AOR, 2.149; 95%CI: 1.760-2.624). Cesarean delivery was a risk factor both in rural (AOR, 5.038; 95%CI: 2.617-9.700) and urban Nigeria (AOR, 2.632; 95%CI: 1.543-4.489). Determinants of neonatal mortality were different in rural and urban Nigeria, and rural neonates had greater risk of mortality than their urban counterparts. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

Is 30-day Posthospitalization Mortality Lower Among Racial/Ethnic Minorities?: A Reexamination.

PubMed

Lin, Meng-Yun; Kressin, Nancy R; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K; Kim, Eun Ji; López, Lenny; Rosen, Jennifer E; Hanchate, Amresh D

2018-06-05

Multiple studies have reported that risk-adjusted rates of 30-day mortality after hospitalization for an acute condition are lower among blacks compared with whites. To examine if previously reported lower mortality for minorities, relative to whites, is accounted for by adjustment for do-not-resuscitate status, potentially unconfirmed admission diagnosis, and differential risk of hospitalization. Using inpatient discharge and vital status data for patients aged 18 and older in California, we examined all admissions from January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011 for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, pneumonia, acute stroke, gastrointestinal bleed, and hip fracture and estimated relative risk of mortality for Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks, non-Hispanic Asians, and non-Hispanic whites. Multiple mortality measures were examined: inpatient, 30-, 90-, and 180 day. Adding census data we estimated population risks of hospitalization and hospitalization with inpatient death. Across all mortality outcomes, blacks had lower mortality rate, relative to whites even after exclusion of patients with do-not-resuscitate status and potentially unconfirmed diagnosis. Compared with whites, the population risk of hospitalization was 80% higher and risk of hospitalization with inpatient mortality was 30% higher among blacks. Among Hispanics and Asians, disparities varied with mortality measure. Lower risk of posthospitalization mortality among blacks, relative to whites, may be associated with higher rate of hospitalizations and differences in unobserved patient acuity. Disparities for Hispanics and Asians, relative to whites, vary with the mortality measure used.

Mortality in the Year Following Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in HIV-Infected Adults and Children in Uganda and Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Walker, A. Sarah; Prendergast, Andrew J.; Mugyenyi, Peter; Munderi, Paula; Hakim, James; Kekitiinwa, Addy; Katabira, Elly; Gilks, Charles F.; Kityo, Cissy; Nahirya-Ntege, Patricia; Nathoo, Kusum; Gibb, Diana M.

2012-01-01

Background. Adult mortality in the first 3 months on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in low-income than in high-income countries, with more similar mortality after 6 months. However, the specific patterns of changing risk and causes of death have rarely been investigated in adults, nor compared with children in low-income countries. Methods. We used flexible parametric hazard models to investigate how mortality risks varied over the first year on ART in human immunodeficiency virus–infected adults (aged 18–73 years) and children (aged 4 months to 15 years) in 2 trials in Zimbabwe and Uganda. Results. One hundred seventy-nine of 3316 (5.4%) adults and 39 of 1199 (3.3%) children died; half of adult/pediatric deaths occurred in the first 3 months. Mortality variation over year 1 was similar; at all CD4 counts/CD4%, mortality risk was greatest between days 30 and 50, declined rapidly to day 180, then declined more slowly. One-year mortality after initiating ART with 0–49, 50–99 or ≥100 CD4 cells/μL was 9.4%, 4.5%, and 2.9%, respectively, in adults, and 10.1%, 4.4%, and 1.3%, respectively, in children aged 4–15 years. Mortality in children aged 4 months to 3 years initiating ART in equivalent CD4% strata was also similar (0%–4%: 9.1%; 5%–9%: 4.5%; ≥10%: 2.8%). Only 10 of 179 (6%) adult deaths and 1 of 39 (3%) child deaths were probably medication-related. The most common cause of death was septicemia/meningitis in adults (20%, median 76 days) and children (36%, median 79 days); pneumonia also commonly caused child deaths (28%, median 41 days). Conclusions. Children ≥4 years and adults with low CD4 values have remarkably similar, and high, mortality risks in the first 3 months after ART initiation in low-income countries, similar to cohorts of untreated individuals. Bacterial infections are a major cause of death in both adults and children; targeted interventions could have important benefits. PMID:22972859

The Human Impact of Tropical Cyclones: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Dick, Anna; Daniels, Amy; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Background. Cyclones have significantly affected populations in Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Americas over the past quarter of a century. Future vulnerability to cyclones will increase due to factors including population growth, urbanization, increasing coastal settlement, and global warming. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of cyclones on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of cyclones were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to 2009 of cyclone events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between cyclone characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 412,644 deaths, 290,654 injured, and 466.1 million people affected by cyclones between 1980 and 2009, and the mortality and injury burden was concentrated in less developed nations of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of cyclone-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries male gender was associated with increased mortality risk, whereas females experienced higher mortality in less developed countries. Conclusions. Additional attention to preparedness and early warning, particularly in Asia, can lessen the impact of future cyclones. PMID:23857074

A novel index for quantifying the risk of early complications for patients undergoing cervical spine surgeries.

PubMed

Passias, Peter G; Diebo, Bassel G; Marascalchi, Bryan J; Jalai, Cyrus M; Horn, Samantha R; Zhou, Peter L; Paltoo, Karen; Bono, Olivia J; Worley, Nancy; Poorman, Gregory W; Challier, Vincent; Dixit, Anant; Paulino, Carl; Lafage, Virginie

2017-11-01

OBJECTIVE It is becoming increasingly necessary for surgeons to provide evidence supporting cost-effectiveness of surgical treatment for cervical spine pathology. Anticipating surgical risk is critical in accurately evaluating the risk/benefit balance of such treatment. Determining the risk and cost-effectiveness of surgery, complications, revision procedures, and mortality rates are the most significant limitations. The purpose of this study was to determine independent risk factors for medical complications (MCs), surgical complications (SCs), revisions, and mortality rates following surgery for patients with cervical spine pathology. The most relevant risk factors were used to structure an index that will help quantify risk and anticipate failure for such procedures. METHODS The authors of this study performed a retrospective review of the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database for patients treated surgically for cervical spine pathology between 2001 and 2010. Multivariate models were performed to calculate the odds ratio (OR) of the independent risk factors that led to MCs and repeated for SCs, revisions, and mortality. The models controlled for age (< and > 65 years old), sex, race, revision status (except for revision analysis), surgical approach, number of levels fused/re-fused (2-3, 4-8, ≥ 9), and osteotomy utilization. ORs were weighted based on their predictive category: 2 times for revision surgery predictors and 4 times for mortality predictors. Fifty points were distributed among the predictors based on their cumulative OR to establish a risk index. RESULTS Discharges for 362,989 patients with cervical spine pathology were identified. The mean age was 52.65 years, and 49.47% of patients were women. Independent risk factors included medical comorbidities, surgical parameters, and demographic factors. Medical comorbidities included the following: pulmonary circulation disorder, coagulopathy, metastatic cancer, renal failure, congestive heart failure, alcohol abuse, neurological disorder, nonmetastatic cancer, liver disease, rheumatoid arthritis/collagen vascular diseases, and chronic blood loss/anemia. Surgical parameters included posterior approach to fusion/re-fusion, ≥ 9 levels fused/re-fused, corpectomy, 4-8 levels fused/re-fused, and osteotomy; demographic variables included age ≥ 65 years. These factors increased the risk of at least 1 of MC, SC, revision, or mortality (risk of death). A total of 50 points were distributed among the factors based on the cumulative risk ratio of every factor in proportion to the total risk ratios. CONCLUSIONS This study proposed an index to quantify the potential risk of morbidity and mortality prior to surgical intervention for patients with cervical spine pathology. This index may be useful for surgeons in patient counseling efforts as well as for health insurance companies and future socioeconomics studies in assessing surgical risks and benefits for patients undergoing surgical treatment of the cervical spine.

Crohn's disease: increased mortality 10 years after diagnosis in a Europe-wide population based cohort.

PubMed

Wolters, F L; Russel, M G; Sijbrandij, J; Schouten, L J; Odes, S; Riis, L; Munkholm, P; Bodini, P; O'Morain, C; Mouzas, I A; Tsianos, E; Vermeire, S; Monteiro, E; Limonard, C; Vatn, M; Fornaciari, G; Pereira, S; Moum, B; Stockbrügger, R W

2006-04-01

No previous correlation between phenotype at diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD) and mortality has been performed. We assessed the predictive value of phenotype at diagnosis on overall and disease related mortality in a European cohort of CD patients. Overall and disease related mortality were recorded 10 years after diagnosis in a prospectively assembled, uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of 380 CD patients diagnosed between 1991 and 1993. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for geographic and phenotypic subgroups at diagnosis. Thirty seven deaths were observed in the entire cohort whereas 21.5 deaths were expected (SMR 1.85 (95% CI 1.30-2.55)). Mortality risk was significantly increased in both females (SMR 1.93 (95% CI 1.10-3.14)) and males (SMR 1.79 (95% CI 1.11-2.73)). Patients from northern European centres had a significant overall increased mortality risk (SMR 2.04 (95% CI 1.32-3.01)) whereas a tendency towards increased overall mortality risk was also observed in the south (SMR 1.55 (95% CI 0.80-2.70)). Mortality risk was increased in patients with colonic disease location and with inflammatory disease behaviour at diagnosis. Mortality risk was also increased in the age group above 40 years at diagnosis for both total and CD related causes. Excess mortality was mainly due to gastrointestinal causes that were related to CD. This European multinational population based study revealed an increased overall mortality risk in CD patients 10 years after diagnosis, and age above 40 years at diagnosis was found to be the sole factor associated with increased mortality risk.

Increased mortality risk among the visually impaired: the roles of mental well-being and preventive care practices.

PubMed

Zheng, D Diane; Christ, Sharon L; Lam, Byron L; Arheart, Kristopher L; Galor, Anat; Lee, David J

2012-05-14

Mechanisms by which visual impairment (VI) increases mortality risk are poorly understood. We estimated the direct and indirect effects of self-rated VI on risk of mortality through mental well-being and preventive care practice mechanisms. Using complete data from 12,987 adult participants of the 2000 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey with mortality linkage through 2006, we undertook structural equation modeling using two latent variables representing mental well-being and poor preventive care to examine multiple effect pathways of self-rated VI on all-cause mortality. Generalized linear structural equation modeling was used to simultaneously estimate pathways including the latent variables and Cox regression model, with adjustment for controls and the complex sample survey design. VI increased the risk of mortality directly after adjusting for mental well-being and other covariates (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25 [95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.55]). Poor preventive care practices were unrelated to VI and to mortality. Mental well-being decreased mortality risk (HR = 0.68 [0.64, 0.74], P < 0.001). VI adversely affected mental well-being (β = -0.54 [-0.65, -0.43]; P < 0.001). VI also increased mortality risk indirectly through mental well-being (HR = 1.23 [1.16, 1.30]). The total effect of VI on mortality including its influence through mental well-being was HR 1.53 [1.24, 1.90]. Similar but slightly stronger patterns of association were found when examining cardiovascular disease-related mortality, but not cancer-related mortality. VI increases the risk of mortality directly and indirectly through its adverse impact on mental well-being. Prevention of disabling ocular conditions remains a public health priority along with more aggressive diagnosis and treatment of depression and other mental health conditions in those living with VI.

Mortality in Incident Cognitive Impairment: Results of the Prospective AgeCoDe Study.

PubMed

Luck, Tobias; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Roehr, Susanne; Wiese, Birgitt; van der Leeden, Carolin; Heser, Kathrin; Bickel, Horst; Pentzek, Michael; König, Hans-Helmut; Werle, Jochen; Mamone, Silke; Mallon, Tina; Wolfsgruber, Steffen; Weeg, Dagmar; Fuchs, Angela; Brettschneider, Christian; Scherer, Martin; Maier, Wolfgang; Weyerer, Siegfried

2017-04-01

To investigate mortality risk and survival time in new-incident cases of cognitive impairment (CI) in old age. Prospective cohort study in six German cities. German Study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe). Two thousand eighty-nine nondemented GP patients aged 75+. Every 18 months, trained psychologists and physicians conducted structured clinical interviews at the participants' homes. Dates of death were obtained from relatives, general practitioner (GP), or the local registry offices. We used the Kaplan-Meier survival method to estimate survival times of individuals with and without incident CI and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions to assess the association between CI and mortality risk, controlled for covariates. Out of the 2,089 included patients at follow-up I, 859 (41.1%) died during the subsequent mean observation period of 8.0 years. Patients with incident CI at follow-up I showed a significantly higher case-fatality rate per 1,000 person-years (74.2, 95% CI = 64.2-84.2 vs 47.8, 95% CI = 44.6-51.0) and a significantly shorter mean survival time in the observation period than those without (7.8 vs 9.1 years; P < .001). The association between incident CI and mortality remained significant in the multivariable Cox analyses-incident CI was associated with a 42% increased, incident severe CI with a 75% increased mortality risk. Our findings suggest an elevated mortality risk in newly acquired cognitive deficits in old age. Even though further studies are required to analyze potential underlying mechanisms, our findings support the notion that such cognitive deficits should be taken seriously in clinical practice not only for an increased risk of developing dementia but also for a broader range of possible adverse health outcomes. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Association of Peak Changes in Plasma Cystatin C and Creatinine with Mortality post Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Park, Meyeon; Shlipak, Michael G.; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Garg, Amit X.; Koyner, Jay L.; Coca, Steven G.; Parikh, Chirag R.

2015-01-01

Background Acute kidney injury is a risk factor for mortality in cardiac surgery patients. Plasma cystatin C and creatinine have different temporal profiles in the post-operative setting, but the associations of simultaneous changes in both filtration markers as compared to change in only one marker with prognosis following hospital discharge are not well described. Methods This is a longitudinal study of 1199 high-risk adult cardiac surgery patients in the TRIBE-AKI (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints for Acute Kidney Injury) Consortium who survived hospitalization. We examined in-hospital peak changes of cystatin C and creatinine in the 3 days following cardiac surgery. We evaluated associations of these filtration markers with mortality, adjusting for demographics, operative characteristics, medical comorbidities, pre-operative estimated glomerular filtration rate, pre-operative urinary albumin to creatinine ratio, and site. Results During the first 3 days of hospitalization, nearly twice as many patients had a ≥ 25% rise in creatinine (30%) compared to a ≥ 25% peak rise in cystatin C (15%). Those with elevations in either cystatin C or creatinine had higher mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio cystatin C 1.83 (95% CI 1.4–2.37) and creatinine 1.90 (95% CI 1.32–2.72)) compared with persons who experienced a post-operative decrease in either filtration marker, respectively. Patients who had simultaneous elevations of ≥ 25% in both cystatin C and creatinine were at similar adjusted risk for 3 year mortality (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.03–3.1) as those with ≥ 25% increase in cystatin C alone (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.09–4.47). Conclusions Elevations in creatinine post-operatively are more common than elevations in cystatin C. However, elevations in cystatin C appeared to be associated with higher risk of mortality after hospital discharge. PMID:26921980

Ethnicity Modifies Associations between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Disease Severity in Parallel Dutch and Singapore Coronary Cohorts

PubMed Central

Gijsberts, Crystel M.; Seneviratna, Aruni; de Carvalho, Leonardo P.; den Ruijter, Hester M.; Vidanapthirana, Puwalani; Sorokin, Vitaly; Stella, Pieter; Agostoni, Pierfrancesco; Asselbergs, Folkert W.; Richards, A. Mark; Low, Adrian F.; Lee, Chi-Hang; Tan, Huay Cheem; Hoefer, Imo E.; Pasterkamp, Gerard; de Kleijn, Dominique P. V.; Chan, Mark Y.

2015-01-01

Background In 2020 the largest number of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) will be found in Asia. Published epidemiological and clinical reports are overwhelmingly derived from western (White) cohorts and data from Asia are scant. We compared CAD severity and all-cause mortality among 4 of the world’s most populous ethnicities: Whites, Chinese, Indians and Malays. Methods The UNIted CORoNary cohort (UNICORN) simultaneously enrolled parallel populations of consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography or intervention for suspected CAD in the Netherlands and Singapore. Using multivariable ordinal regression, we investigated the independent association of ethnicity with CAD severity and interactions between risk factors and ethnicity on CAD severity. Also, we compared all-cause mortality among the ethnic groups using multivariable Cox regression analysis. Results We included 1,759 White, 685 Chinese, 201 Indian and 224 Malay patients undergoing coronary angiography. We found distinct inter-ethnic differences in cardiovascular risk factors. Furthermore, the associations of gender and diabetes with severity of CAD were significantly stronger in Chinese than Whites. Chinese (OR 1.3 [1.1–1.7], p = 0.008) and Malay (OR 1.9 [1.4–2.6], p<0.001) ethnicity were independently associated with more severe CAD as compared to White ethnicity. Strikingly, when stratified for diabetes status, we found a significant association of all three Asian ethnic groups as compared to White ethnicity with more severe CAD among diabetics, but not in non-diabetics. Crude all-cause mortality did not differ, but when adjusted for covariates mortality was higher in Malays than the other ethnic groups. Conclusion In this population of individuals undergoing coronary angiography, ethnicity is independently associated with the severity of CAD and modifies the strength of association between certain risk factors and CAD severity. Furthermore, mortality differs among ethnic groups. Our data provide insight in inter-ethnic differences in CAD risk factors, CAD severity and mortality. PMID:26147693

Antidepressant Medication Use and its Association with Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in the Reasons for Geographic and Ethnic Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study

PubMed Central

Hansen, Richard A.; Khodneva, Yulia; Glasser, Stephen P.; Qian, Jingjing; Redmond, Nicole; Safford, Monika M.

2018-01-01

Background Mixed evidence suggests second-generation antidepressants may increase risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. Objective Assess whether antidepressant use is associated with acute coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular disease death, and all-cause mortality. Methods Secondary analyses of the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) longitudinal cohort study were conducted. Use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, bupropion, nefazodone, and trazodone was measured during the baseline (2003-2007) in-home visit. Outcomes of coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular disease death, and all-cause mortality were assessed every 6 months and adjudicated by medical record review. Cox proportional hazards time-to-event analysis followed patients until their first event on or before December 31, 2011, iteratively adjusting for covariates. Results Among 29,616 participants, 3,458 (11.7%) used an antidepressant of interest. Intermediate models adjusting for everything but physical and mental health found an increased risk of acute coronary heart disease (Hazard Ratio=1.21; 95% CI 1.04-1.41), stroke (Hazard Ratio=1.28; 95% CI 1.02-1.60), cardiovascular disease death (Hazard Ratio =1.29; 95% CI 1.09-1.53), and all-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio=1.27; 95% CI 1.15-1.41) for antidepressant users. Risk estimates trended in this direction for all outcomes in the fully adjusted model, but only remained statistically associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio=1.12; 95% CI 1.01-1.24). This risk was attenuated in sensitivity analyses censoring follow-up time at 2-years (Hazard Ratio=1.37; 95% CI 1.11-1.68). Conclusions In fully adjusted models antidepressant use was associated with a small increase in all-cause mortality. PMID:26783360

Placental Abruption and Perinatal Mortality With Preterm Delivery as a Mediator: Disentangling Direct and Indirect Effects

PubMed Central

Ananth, Cande V.; VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2011-01-01

The authors use recent methodology in causal inference to disentangle the direct and indirect effects that operate through a mediator in an exposure-response association paradigm. They demonstrate how total effects can be partitioned into direct and indirect effects even when the exposure and mediator interact. The impact of bias due to unmeasured confounding on the exposure-response association is assessed through a series of sensitivity analyses. These methods are applied to a problem in perinatal epidemiology to examine the extent to which the effect of abruption on perinatal mortality is mediated through preterm delivery. Data on over 26 million US singleton births (1995–2002) were utilized. Risks of mortality among abruption and nonabruption births were 102.7 and 6.2 per 1,000 births, respectively. Risk ratios of the natural direct and indirect (preterm delivery-mediated) effects of abruption on mortality were 10.18 (95% confidence interval: 9.80, 10.58) and 1.35 (95% confidence interval: 1.33, 1.38), respectively. The proportion of increased mortality risk mediated through preterm delivery was 28.1%, with even higher proportions associated with deliveries at earlier gestational ages. Sensitivity analyses underscore that the qualitative conclusions of some mediated effects and substantial direct effects are reasonably robust to unmeasured confounding of a fairly considerable magnitude. PMID:21430195

[Application of a simple methodological approach to analyze health inequalities: the case of infant mortality in Chile].

PubMed

Frenz, Patricia; González, Claudia

2010-09-01

the infant mortality gradient by maternal education is a good indicator of the health impact of the social inequalities that prevail in Chile. to propose a systematic method of analysis, using simple epidemiological measures, for the comparison of differential health risks between social groups that change over time. data and statistics on births and infant deaths, obtained from the Ministry of Health, were used. Five strata of maternal schooling were defined and various measures were calculated to compare infant mortality, according to maternal education in the periods 1998-2001 and 2001-2003. of particular interest is the distinction between a measure of effect, Relative Risk (RR), which indicates the size of the gap between socioeconomic extremes and the etiological strength of low maternal schooling on infant mortality, and a measure of global impact, the Population Attributable Risk (PAR%), which takes into account the whole socioeconomic distribution and permits comparisons over time independently of the variability in the proportions of the different social strata. The comparison of these measures in the two periods studied, reveals an increase in the infant mortality gap between maternal educational extremes measured by the RR, but a stabilization in the population impact of low maternal schooling. these results can be explained by a decline in the proportion of mothers in the lowest educational level and an increase in the proportion in the highest group.

Intensive glycaemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes: systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis of randomised clinical trials.

PubMed

Hemmingsen, Bianca; Lund, Søren S; Gluud, Christian; Vaag, Allan; Almdal, Thomas; Hemmingsen, Christina; Wetterslev, Jørn

2011-11-24

To assess the effect of targeting intensive glycaemic control versus conventional glycaemic control on all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, microvascular complications, and severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. Systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses of randomised trials. Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, LILACS, and CINAHL to December 2010; hand search of reference lists and conference proceedings; contacts with authors, relevant pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration. Randomised clinical trials comparing targeted intensive glycaemic control with conventional glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes. Published and unpublished trials in all languages were included, irrespective of predefined outcomes. Two reviewers independently assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data related to study methods, interventions, outcomes, risk of bias, and adverse events. Risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated with fixed and random effects models. Fourteen clinical trials that randomised 28,614 participants with type 2 diabetes (15,269 to intensive control and 13,345 to conventional control) were included. Intensive glycaemic control did not significantly affect the relative risks of all cause (1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.13; 28,359 participants, 12 trials) or cardiovascular mortality (1.11, 0.92 to 1.35; 28,359 participants, 12 trials). Trial sequential analyses rejected a relative risk reduction above 10% for all cause mortality and showed insufficient data on cardiovascular mortality. The risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction may be reduced (relative risk 0.85, 0.76 to 0.95; P=0.004; 28,111 participants, 8 trials), but this finding was not confirmed in trial sequential analysis. Intensive glycaemic control showed a reduction of the relative risks for the composite microvascular outcome (0.88, 0.79 to 0.97; P=0.01; 25,600 participants, 3 trials) and retinopathy (0.80, 0.67 to 0.94; P=0.009; 10,793 participants, 7 trials), but trial sequential analyses showed that sufficient evidence had not yet been reached. The estimate of an effect on the risk of nephropathy (relative risk 0.83, 0.64 to 1.06; 27,769 participants, 8 trials) was not statistically significant. The risk of severe hypoglycaemia was significantly increased when intensive glycaemic control was targeted (relative risk 2.39, 1.71 to 3.34; 27,844 participants, 9 trials); trial sequential analysis supported a 30% increased relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia. Intensive glycaemic control does not seem to reduce all cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Data available from randomised clinical trials remain insufficient to prove or refute a relative risk reduction for cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, composite microvascular complications, or retinopathy at a magnitude of 10%. Intensive glycaemic control increases the relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia by 30%.

Mortality Risk After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry Risk Assessment Model.

PubMed

Codner, Pablo; Malick, Waqas; Kouz, Remi; Patel, Amisha; Chen, Cheng-Han; Terre, Juan; Landes, Uri; Vahl, Torsten Peter; George, Isaac; Nazif, Tamim; Kirtane, Ajay J; Khalique, Omar K; Hahn, Rebecca T; Leon, Martin B; Kodali, Susheel

2018-05-08

Risk assessment tools currently used to predict mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were designed for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess the accuracy of the TAVI dedicated American College of Cardiology / Transcatheter Valve Therapies (ACC/TVT) risk score in predicting mortality outcomes. Consecutive patients (n=1038) undergoing TAVI at a single institution from 2014 to 2016 were included. The ACC/TVT registry mortality risk score, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons - Patient Reported Outcomes (STS-PROM) score and the EuroSCORE II were calculated for all patients. In hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The ACC/TVT risk stratification tool scored higher for patients who died in-hospital than in those who survived the index hospitalization (6.4 ± 4.6 vs. 3.5 ± 1.6, p = 0.03; respectively). The ACC/TVT score showed a high level of discrimination, C-index for in-hospital mortality 0.74, 95% CI [0.59 - 0.88]. There were no significant differences between the performance of the ACC/TVT registry risk score, the EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM for in hospital and 30-day mortality rates. The ACC/TVT registry risk model is a dedicated tool to aid in the prediction of in-hospital mortality risk after TAVI.

Identifying mortality risks in patients with opioid use disorder using brief screening assessment: Secondary mental health clinical records analysis.

PubMed

Bogdanowicz, Karolina Magda; Stewart, Robert; Chang, Chin-Kuo; Downs, Johnny; Khondoker, Mizanur; Shetty, Hitesh; Strang, John; Hayes, Richard Derek

2016-07-01

Risk assessments are widely used, but their ability to predict outcomes in opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment remains unclear. Therefore, the aim was to investigate if addiction-specific brief risk screening is effective in identifying high mortality risk groups and if subsequent clinical actions following risk assessment impacts on mortality levels. Opioid use disorder (OUD) patients were identified in the South London and Maudsley Case Register. Deaths were identified through database linkage to the national mortality dataset. Cox and competing-risk regression were used to model associations between brief risk assessment domains and all-cause and overdose mortality in 4488 OUD patients, with up-to 6-year follow-up time where 227 deaths were registered. Data were stratified by admission to general mental health services. All-cause mortality was significantly associated with unsafe injecting (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.10-2.11) and clinically appraised likelihood of accidental overdose (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.00-2.19). Overdose-mortality was significantly associated with unsafe injecting (SHR 2.52, 95% CI 1.11-5.70) and clinically appraised suicidality (SHR 2.89, 95% CI 1.38-6.03). Suicidality was associated with a twofold increase in mortality risk among OUD patients who were not admitted to mental health services within 2 months of their risk assessment (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.67-3.24). Diagnosis-specific brief risk screening can identify OUD patient subgroups at increased risk of all-cause and overdose mortality. OUD patients, where suicidality is evident, who are not admitted into services are particularly vulnerable. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Readmissions After Colon Cancer Surgery: Does It Matter Where Patients Are Readmitted?

PubMed Central

Hussain, Tanvir; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Pfoh, Elizabeth; Pollack, Craig Evan

2016-01-01

Purpose: Readmissions to a different hospital may place patients at increased risk for poor outcomes and may increase their overall costs of care. We evaluated whether mortality and costs differ for patients with colon cancer on the basis of whether patients are readmitted to the index hospital or to a different hospital within 30 days of discharge. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis using SEER-Medicare linked claims data for patients with stage I to III colon cancer diagnosed between 2000 and2009 who were readmitted within 30 days (N = 3,399). Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality, which was modeled by using Cox proportional hazards. Secondary outcomes included colon cancer–specific mortality, 90-day mortality, and costs of care. We used subhazard ratios for colon cancer– specific mortality and generalized linear models for costs. For each model, we used a propensity score–weighted doubly robust approach to adjust for patient, physician, and hospital characteristics. Results: Approximately 23% (n = 769) of readmitted patients were readmitted to a different hospital than where they were initially discharged. After adjustment, there was no difference in all-cause mortality, colon cancer–specific mortality, or cost of care for patients readmitted to a different hospital. Patient readmitted to a different hospital did have a higher risk of short-term mortality (90-day all-cause mortality; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.38). Conclusion: Readmission to a different hospital after colon cancer surgery is associated with short-term mortality but not with long-term mortality nor with post-discharge costs of care. Additional investigation is needed to determine how to improve short-term mortality among patients readmitted to different hospitals. PMID:27048614

Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

PubMed

Stanišić Stojić, Svetlana; Stanišić, Nemanja; Stojić, Andreja

2016-07-11

To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data. The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures. These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

Epidemiology of patients hospitalised for pneumonia in 2011: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

PubMed

Wenisch, Christoph; Weiss, Günter; Lechner, Arno; Meilinger, Michael; Rittler, Karl; Muzatko, Nina; Pomogyi, Beate; Kutilek, Mathilde; Bellmann-Weiler, Rosa; Fürst, Ursula-Maria; Andorfer, Alexander; Wenisch, Judith Maria

2013-10-01

This study was conducted to investigate the age dependent epidemiology of pneumonia and risk factors for mortality.The data were derived from the Austrian Pneumonia Network (APNET), comprising nine Departments for Internal Medicine with a total of 1,011 hospital beds. All inpatients diagnosed with pneumonia during 2011 were followed until discharge. Identification of microorganisms was performed according to local standard methods. Data of patients < 65 years and ≥ 65 years were compared by Mann-Whitney and the Chi-square tests. Risk factors for hospital mortality were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses.Overall, 1,956 patients were included. The hospital mortality was 10.4 %, and was higher in patients ≥ 65 (12.7 %) than in patients < 65 years of age (5.0 %; p < 0.001). Streptococcus (S.) pneumoniae was the most important pathogen. Enterobacteriacaeae were revealed significantly more often in patients ≥ 65 years. Age ≥ 65 years, chronic heart failure (CHF) and neurological disease increased the risk of hospital mortality 1.96 (95 % CI 1.19-3.20), 1.59 (95 % CI 1.10-2.29), and 1.7 (95 % CI 1.19-2.41)-fold, respectively.In conclusion, pneumonia patients with CHF, neurological disease and age ≥ 65 years could benefit from intensified care due to increased risk of in-hospital death.

Physical fitness and perceived psychological pressure at work: 30-year ischemic heart disease and all-cause mortality in the Copenhagen Male Study.

PubMed

Holtermann, Andreas; Mortensen, Ole Steen; Burr, Hermann; Søgaard, Karen; Gyntelberg, Finn; Suadicani, Poul

2011-07-01

Investigate if workers with low physical fitness have an increased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality from regular psychological work pressure. Thirty-year follow-up of 5249 middle-aged men without cardiovascular disease. Men perceiving regular psychological work pressure had no higher risk of IHD mortality than those who did not. Both among men perceiving regular and rare psychological work pressure, the physically fit had a reduced risk of IHD mortality referencing men with low physical fitness. For all-cause mortality, a stronger inverse association was found among men perceiving regular compared to rare psychological pressure at work. Physical fitness is equally important for the risk of IHD mortality among men experiencing regular and rare psychological pressure at work, but stronger associated to risk of all-cause mortality among men experiencing regular psychological pressure at work.

Re-Evaluating the Possible Increased Risk of HIV Acquisition With Progestin-Only Injectables Versus Maternal Mortality and Life Expectancy in Africa: A Decision Analysis.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Maria Isabel; Gaffield, Mary E; Han, Leo; Caughey, Aaron B

2017-12-28

The association between increased risk of HIV acquisition and use of progestin-only injectables (POIs) is controversial. We sought to compare the competing risks of maternal mortality and HIV acquisition with use of POIs using updated data on this association and considering an expanded number of African countries. We designed a decision-analytic model to compare the benefits and risks of POIs on the competing risks of maternal mortality and HIV acquisition on life expectancy for women in 9 African countries. For the purposes of this analysis, we assumed that POIs were associated with an increased risk of HIV acquisition (hazards ratio of 1.4). Our primary outcome was life-years and the population was women of reproductive age (15-49 years) in these countries, who did not have HIV infection and were not currently planning a pregnancy. Probabilities for each variable included in the model, such as HIV incidence, access to antiretroviral therapy, and contraceptive prevalence, were obtained from the literature. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to check model assumptions and explore how uncertainty in estimates would affect the model results. In all countries, discontinuation of POIs without replacement with an equally effective contraceptive method would result in decreased life expectancy due to a significant increase in maternal deaths. While the removal of POIs from the market would result in the prevention of some new cases of HIV, the life-years gained from this are mitigated due to the marked increase in neonatal HIV cases and maternal mortality with associated life-years lost. In all countries, except South Africa, typical-use contraceptive failure rates with POIs would need to exceed 39%, and more than half of women currently using POIs would have to switch to another effective method, for the removal of POIs to demonstrate an increase in total life-years. Women living in sub-Saharan Africa cope with both high rates of HIV infection and high rates of pregnancy-related maternal death relative to the rest of the world. Based on the most current estimates, our model suggests that removal of POI contraception from the market without effective and acceptable contraception replacement would have a net negative effect on maternal health, life expectancy, and mortality under a variety of scenarios. © Rodriguez et al.

Colorectal cancer association with metabolic syndrome and its components: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Esposito, Katherine; Chiodini, Paolo; Capuano, Annalisa; Bellastella, Giuseppe; Maiorino, Maria Ida; Rafaniello, Concetta; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Giugliano, Dario

2013-12-01

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the empirical evidence on the association of metabolic syndrome and its components with colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. A systematic literature search of multiple electronic databases was conducted and complemented by cross-referencing to identify studies published before 31 October 2012. Every included study was to report risk estimates with 95 % confidence intervals for the association between metabolic syndrome and colorectal cancer (incidence or mortality). Core items of identified studies were independently extracted by two reviewers, and results were summarized by standard methods of meta-analysis. We identified 17 studies, which reported on 49 data sets with 11,462 cancer cases. Metabolic syndrome was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in both men (RR: 1.33, 95 % CI 1.18-1.50, and 1.36, 1.25-1.48, respectively) and women (RR: 1.41, 1.18-1.70, and 1.16, 1.03-1.30, respectively). The risk estimates changed little depending on type of study (cohort vs non cohort), populations (US, Europe, Asia), cancer site (colon and rectum), or definition of the syndrome. The risk estimates for any single factor of the syndrome were significant for higher values of BMI/waist (RR: 1.19, 95 % CI 1.10-1.28), dysglycemia (RR: 1.29, 1.11-1.49), and higher blood pressure (RR: 1.09, 1.01-1.18). Dysglycemia and/or higher BMI/waist explained most of the risk associated with metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in both sexes. The risk conveyed by the full syndrome is not superior to the sum of its parts.

Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

PubMed

Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

2015-08-01

Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Opioid Substitution Treatment and Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy on the Cause-Specific Risk of Mortality Among HIV-Positive People Who Inject Drugs.

PubMed

Nosyk, Bohdan; Min, Jeong E; Evans, Elizabeth; Li, Libo; Liu, Lei; Lima, Viviane D; Wood, Evan; Montaner, Julio S G

2015-10-01

Prior studies indicated opioid substitution treatment (OST) reduces mortality risk and improves the odds of accessing highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART); however, the relative effects of these treatments for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive people who inject drugs (PWID) are unclear. We determine the independent and joint effects of OST and HAART on mortality, by cause, within a population of HIV-positive PWID initiating HAART. Using a linked population-level database for British Columbia, Canada, we used time-to-event analytic methods, including competing risks models, proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates, and marginal structural models, to identify the independent and joint effects of OST and HAART on all-cause as well as drug- and HIV-related mortality, controlling for covariates. Among 1727 HIV-positive PWID, 493 (28.5%) died during a median 5.1 years (interquartile range, 2.1-9.1) of follow-up: 18.7% due to drug-related causes, 55.8% due to HIV-related causes, and 25.6% due to other causes. Standardized mortality ratios were 12.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.8, 15.0) during OST and 30.0 (27.1, 33.1) during periods out of OST. Both OST (adjusted hazard, 0.34; 95% CI, .23, .49) and HAART (0.39 [0.31, 0.48]) decreased the hazard of all-cause mortality; however, individuals were at lowest risk of death when these medications were used jointly (0.16 [0.10, 0.26]). Both OST and HAART independently protected against HIV-related death, drug-related death and death due to other causes. While both OST and HAART are life-saving treatments, joint administration is urgently needed to protect against both drug- and HIV-related mortality. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10 and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality.

PubMed

Pinheiro, Samya de Lara Lins de Araujo; Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento; Schwartz, Joel; Zanobetti, Antonella

2014-12-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.

Depressive Trajectories and Risk of Disability and Mortality in Older Adults: Longitudinal Findings From the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

PubMed Central

Hagaman, Ashley K.; Reinders, Ilse; Steeves, Jeremy A.; Newman, Anne B.; Rubin, Susan M.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Kritchevsky, Stephen B.; Yaffe, Kristine; Ayonayon, Hilsa N.; Nagin, Daniel S.; Simonsick, Eleanor M.; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.; Harris, Tamara B.

2016-01-01

Background. Depression and disability are closely linked. Less is known regarding clinical and subclinical depressive symptoms over time and risk of disability and mortality. Methods. Responses to the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Short Depression scale (CES-D10) were assessed over a 4-year period in men (n = 1032) and women (n = 1070) aged 70–79 years initially free from disability. Depressive symptom trajectories were defined with group-based models. Disability (2 consecutive reports of severe difficulty walking one-quarter mile or climbing 10 steps) and mortality were determined for 9 subsequent years. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards adjusted for covariates. Results. Three trajectories were identified: persistently nondepressed (54% of men, 54% of women, mean baseline CES-D10: 1.16 and 1.46), mildly depressed and increasing (40% of men, 38% of women, mean baseline CES-D10: 3.60 and 4.35), and depressed and increasing (6% of men, 8% of women, mean baseline CES-D10: 7.44 and 9.61). Disability and mortality rates per 1,000 person years were 41.4 and 60.3 in men and 45.8 and 41.9 in women. Relative to nondepressed, men in the mildly depressed (HR = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11–1.89) and depressed trajectories (HR = 2.12, 95% CI 1.33–3.38) had increased disability; women in the depressed trajectory had increased disability (HR = 2.02, 95% CI 1.37–2.96). Men in the mildly depressed (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.52) and depressed trajectories (HR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.10–2.41) had elevated mortality risk; women exhibited no mortality risk. Conclusions. Trajectories of depressive symptoms without recovery may predict disability and mortality in apparently healthy older populations, thus underscoring the importance of monitoring depressive symptoms in geriatric care. PMID:26273025

Mortality among high-risk patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted to U.S. teaching-intensive hospitals in July: a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Jena, Anupam B; Sun, Eric C; Romley, John A

2013-12-24

Studies of whether inpatient mortality in US teaching hospitals rises in July as a result of organizational disruption and relative inexperience of new physicians (July effect) find small and mixed results, perhaps because study populations primarily include low-risk inpatients whose mortality outcomes are unlikely to exhibit a July effect. Using the US Nationwide Inpatient sample, we estimated difference-in-difference models of mortality, percutaneous coronary intervention rates, and bleeding complication rates, for high- and low-risk patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted to 98 teaching-intensive and 1353 non-teaching-intensive hospitals during May and July 2002 to 2008. Among patients in the top quartile of predicted acute myocardial infarction mortality (high risk), adjusted mortality was lower in May than July in teaching-intensive hospitals (18.8% in May, 22.7% in July, P<0.01), but similar in non-teaching-intensive hospitals (22.5% in May, 22.8% in July, P=0.70). Among patients in the lowest three quartiles of predicted acute myocardial infarction mortality (low risk), adjusted mortality was similar in May and July in both teaching-intensive hospitals (2.1% in May, 1.9% in July, P=0.45) and non-teaching-intensive hospitals (2.7% in May, 2.8% in July, P=0.21). Differences in percutaneous coronary intervention and bleeding complication rates could not explain the observed July mortality effect among high risk patients. High-risk acute myocardial infarction patients experience similar mortality in teaching- and non-teaching-intensive hospitals in July, but lower mortality in teaching-intensive hospitals in May. Low-risk patients experience no such July effect in teaching-intensive hospitals.

Measurement of liver function using hepatobiliary scintigraphy improves risk assessment in patients undergoing major liver resection.

PubMed

Cieslak, Kasia P; Bennink, Roelof J; de Graaf, Wilmar; van Lienden, Krijn P; Besselink, Marc G; Busch, Olivier R C; Gouma, Dirk J; van Gulik, Thomas M

2016-09-01

(99m)Tc-mebrofenin-hepatobiliary-scintigraphy (HBS) enables measurement of future remnant liver (FRL)-function and was implemented in our preoperative routine after calculation of the cut-off value for prediction of postoperative liver failure (LF). This study evaluates our results since the implementation of HBS. Additionally, CT-volumetric methods of FRL-assessment, standardized liver volumetry and FRL/body-weight ratio (FRL-BWR), were evaluated. 163 patients who underwent major liver resection were included. Insufficient FRL-volume and/or FRL-function <2.7%/min/m(2) were indications for portal vein embolization (PVE). Non-PVE patients were compared with a historical cohort (n = 55). Primary endpoints were postoperative LF and LF related mortality. Secondary endpoint was preoperative identification of patients at risk for LF using the CT-volumetric methods. 29/163 patients underwent PVE; 8/29 patients because of insufficient FRL-function despite sufficient FRL-volume. According to FRL-BWR and standardized liver volumetry, 16/29 and 11/29 patients, respectively, would not have undergone PVE. LF and LF related mortality were significantly reduced compared to the historical cohort. HBS appeared superior in the identification of patients with increased surgical risk compared to the CT-volumetric methods. Implementation of HBS in the preoperative work-up led to a function oriented use of PVE and was associated with a significant decrease in postoperative LF and LF related mortality. Copyright © 2016 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic and Behavioral Risk Factors for Mortality in a National 19-Year Prospective Study of U.S. Adults

PubMed Central

Lantz, Paula M.; Golberstein, Ezra; House, James S.; Morenoff, Jeffrey D.

2012-01-01

Many demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral risk factors predict mortality in the United States. However, very few population-based longitudinal studies are able to investigate simultaneously the impact of a variety of social factors on mortality. We investigated the degree to which demographic characteristics, socioeconomic variables and major health risk factors were associated with mortality in a nationally-representative sample of 3,617 U.S. adults from 1986-2005, using data from the 4 waves of the Americans’ Changing Lives study. Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying covariates were employed to predict all-cause mortality verified through the National Death Index and death certificate review. The results revealed that low educational attainment was not associated with mortality when income and health risk behaviors were included in the model. The association of low-income with mortality remained after controlling for major behavioral risks. Compared to those in the “normal” weight category, neither overweight nor obesity was significantly associated with the risk of mortality. Among adults age 55 and older at baseline, the risk of mortality was actually reduced for those were overweight (hazard rate ratio=0.83, 95% C.I. = 0.71 – 0.98) and those who were obese (hazard rate ratio=0.68, 95% C.I. = 0.55 – 0.84), controlling for other health risk behaviors and health status. Having a low level of physical activity was a significant risk factor for mortality (hazard rate ratio=1.58, 95% C.I. = 1.20 – 2.07). The results from this national longitudinal study underscore the need for health policies and clinical interventions focusing on the social and behavioral determinants of health, with a particular focus on income security, smoking prevention/cessation, and physical activity. PMID:20226579

Mortality and prostate cancer risk in 19,598 men after surgery for benign prostatic hyperplasia.

PubMed

Holman, C D; Wisniewski, Z S; Semmens, J B; Rouse, I L; Bass, A J

1999-07-01

To examine postoperative mortality and prostate cancer risk after the first prostatectomy for benign prostatic hypertrophy over a 17-year period in a population-based cohort of men in Western Australia, using improved methods to adjust for comorbidity. The relative survival from death and prostate cancer incidence was calculated against the background population rates. The outcomes of transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) and open prostatectomy (OP) were compared adjusting for calendar year, age, admission type and comorbidity using Cox regression. Fractional polynomials were used to take account of nonlinearity in confounder effects. At 10 years, the relative survival was 116.5% in TURP patients and 123.5% after OP. Adjusting only for confounding by age, calendar year and admission type, TURP had a higher mortality rate than OP (rate ratio, RR, 1. 20; 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.34). The RR fell to 1.10 (0.99-1. 23) after adjustment for comorbidity and to 1.07 (0.95-1.19) when accounting for nonlinearity. The relative survival from the incidence of prostate cancer at 10 years was 103.7% after TURP and 104.5% after OP. The RR adjusted for age and calendar year was 1.44 (0.94-2.21) for incidence and 1.37 (0.81-2.29) for prostate cancer mortality. There is at most a small and clinically unimportant excess mortality risk from TURP; any difference could be due to a protective effect of OP on the long-term risk of prostate cancer and a lower rate of repeat prostatectomy.

Risk of death following pregnancy in rural Nepal.

PubMed Central

Pradhan, Elizabeth Kimbrough; West, Keith P.; Katz, Joanne; Christian, Parul; Khatry, Subarna K.; Leclerq, Steven C.; Dali, Sanu Maiya; Shrestha, Sharada Ram

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the length of time following pregnancy during which the risk of mortality was elevated among women in rural Nepal. METHODS: An analysis was performed of prospective data on women participating in the control group of a large, population-based trial. Weekly visits were made for three years to 14805 women aged 14-45 years. Pregnancy and vital status were assessed. A total of 7325 pregnancies were followed. Mortality during and following pregnancy, expressed on a person-time basis, was compared to referent mortality unrelated to pregnancy (52 weeks after pregnancy) in the same cohort. FINDINGS: The relative risk (RR) of death during pregnancy but before the onset of labour was 0.93 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38-2.32). During the perinatal period, defined as lasting from the onset of labour until seven days after outcome, the RR of death was 37.02 (95% CI: 15.03-90.92). The RR for 2 to 6 weeks, 7 to 12 weeks, and 13 to 52 weeks after pregnancy were 4.82, 2.59 and 1.01 with 95% CI of 1.77-13.07, 0.81-8.26 and 0.40-2.53, respectively. The RR of death was 2.21 (95% CI. 1.03-4.71) during the conventional maternal mortality period (pregnancy until 6 weeks after outcome). It was 2.26 (95% CI: 1.05-4.90) when the period was extended to 12 weeks after pregnancy outcome. CONCLUSION: The risk of mortality associated with pregnancy should be assessed over the first 12 weeks following outcome instead of over the first 6 weeks. PMID:12481211

Outcomes of surgery in patients aged ≥90 years in the general surgical setting.

PubMed

Sudlow, A; Tuffaha, H; Stearns, A T; Shaikh, I A

2018-03-01

Introduction An increasing proportion of the population is living into their nineties and beyond. These high risk patients are now presenting more frequently to both elective and emergency surgical services. There is limited research looking at outcomes of general surgical procedures in nonagenarians and centenarians to guide surgeons assessing these cases. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted of all patients aged ≥90 years undergoing elective and emergency general surgical procedures at a tertiary care facility between 2009 and 2015. Vascular, breast and endocrine procedures were excluded. Patient demographics and characteristics were collated. Primary outcomes were 30-day and 90-day mortality rates. The impact of ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) grade, operation severity and emergency presentation was assessed using multivariate analysis. Results Overall, 161 patients (58 elective, 103 emergency) were identified for inclusion in the study. The mean patient age was 92.8 years (range: 90-106 years). The 90-day mortality rates were 5.2% and 19.4% for elective and emergency procedures respectively (p=0.013). The median survival was 29 and 19 months respectively (p=0.001). Emergency and major gastrointestinal operations were associated with a significant increase in mortality. Patients undergoing emergency major colonic or upper gastrointestinal surgery had a 90-day mortality rate of 53.8%. Conclusions The risk for patients aged over 90 years having an elective procedure differs significantly in the short term from those having emergency surgery. In selected cases, elective surgery carries an acceptable mortality risk. Emergency surgery is associated with a significantly increased risk of death, particularly after major gastrointestinal resections.

Portsmouth physiological and operative severity score for the Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system in general surgical practice and identifying risk factors for poor outcome

PubMed Central

Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali

2017-01-01

Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670

Educational inequalities in mortality and associated risk factors: German--versus French-speaking Switzerland.

PubMed

Faeh, David; Bopp, Matthias

2010-09-22

Between the French- and German-speaking areas of Switzerland, there are distinct differences in mortality, similar to those between Germany and France. Assessing corresponding inequalities may elucidate variations in mortality and risk factors, thereby uncovering public health potential. Our aim was to analyze educational inequalities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the two Swiss regions and to compare this with inequalities in behavioural risk factors and self-rated health. The Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal census-based record linkage study, provided mortality and survival time data (3.5 million individuals, 40-79 years, 261,314 deaths, 1990-2000). The Swiss Health Survey 1992/93 provided cross-sectional data on risk factors. Inequalities were calculated as percentage of change in mortality rate (survival time, hazard ratio) or risk factor prevalence (odds ratio) per year of additional education using multivariable Cox and logistic regression. Significant inequalities in mortality were found for all causes of death in men and for most causes in women. Inequalities were largest in men for causes related to smoking and alcohol use and in women for circulatory diseases. Gradients in all-cause mortality were more pronounced in younger and middle-aged men, especially in German-speaking Switzerland. Mortality inequalities tended to be larger in German-speaking Switzerland whereas inequalities in associated risk factors were generally more pronounced in French-speaking Switzerland. With respect to inequalities in mortality and associated risk factors, we found characteristic differences between German- and French-speaking Switzerland, some of which followed gradients described in Europe. These differences only partially reflected inequalities in associated risk factors.

Work-based predictors of mortality: a 20-year follow-up of healthy employees.

PubMed

Shirom, Arie; Toker, Sharon; Alkaly, Yasmin; Jacobson, Orit; Balicer, Ran

2011-05-01

This study investigated the effects of the Job-Demand-Control-Support (JDC-S) model's components, workload, control, peer and supervisor social support, on the risk of all-cause mortality. Also examined was the expectation that the above work-based components interact in predicting all-cause mortality. The study's hypotheses were tested after controlling for physiological variables and health behaviors known to be risk factors for mortality. The design used was prospective. Baseline data were obtained from healthy employees (N = 820) who underwent periodic health examinations in 1988. Follow-up data on all-cause mortality were obtained from the participants' computerized medical file, kept by their HMO, in 2008. The baseline data covered socioeconomic, behavioral, and biological risk factors in addition to the components of the JDC-S model. During the period of follow-up, 53 deaths were recorded. Data were analyzed using Cox regressions. Only one main effect was found: the risk of mortality was significantly lower for those reporting high levels of peer social support. The study found two significant interactions. Higher levels of control reduced the risk of mortality for the men and increased it for the women. The main effect of peer social support on mortality risk was significantly higher for those whose baseline age ranged from 38 to 43 but not for the older than 43 or the younger than 38 participants. Peer social support is a protective factor, reducing the risk of mortality, while perceived control reduces the risk of mortality among men but increases it among women. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Similar support for three different life course socioeconomic models on predicting premature cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality

PubMed Central

Rosvall, Maria; Chaix, Basile; Lynch, John; Lindström, Martin; Merlo, Juan

2006-01-01

Background There are at least three broad conceptual models for the impact of the social environment on adult disease: the critical period, social mobility, and cumulative life course models. Several studies have shown an association between each of these models and mortality. However, few studies have investigated the importance of the different models within the same setting and none has been performed in samples of the whole population. The purpose of the present study was to study the relation between socioeconomic position (SEP) and mortality using different conceptual models in the whole population of Scania. Methods In the present investigation we use socioeconomic information on all men (N = 48,909) and women (N = 47,688) born between 1945 and 1950, alive on January, 1st,1990, and living in the Region of Scania, in Sweden. Focusing on three specific life periods (i.e., ages 10–15, 30–35 and 40–45), we examined the association between SEP and the 12-year risk of premature cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality. Results There was a strong relation between SEP and mortality among those inside the workforce, irrespective of the conceptual model used. There was a clear upward trend in the mortality hazard rate ratios (HRR) with accumulated exposure to manual SEP in both men (p for trend < 0.001 for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality) and women (p for trend = 0.01 for cardiovascular mortality) and (p for trend = 0.003 for all-cause mortality). Inter- and intragenerational downward social mobility was associated with an increased mortality risk. When applying similar conceptual models based on workforce participation, it was shown that mortality was affected by the accumulated exposure to being outside the workforce. Conclusion There was a strong relation between SEP and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, irrespective of the conceptual model used. The critical period, social mobility, and cumulative life course models, showed the same fit to the data. That is, one model could not be pointed out as "the best" model and even in this large unselected sample it was not possible to adjudicate which theories best describe the links between life course SEP and mortality risk. PMID:16889658

Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

PubMed

Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-09-01

Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

Cardiovascular Disease Mortality After Chemotherapy or Surgery for Testicular Nonseminoma: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Fung, Chunkit; Fossa, Sophie D.; Milano, Michael T.; Sahasrabudhe, Deepak M.; Peterson, Derick R.; Travis, Lois B.

2015-01-01

Purpose Increased risks of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with testicular cancer (TC) given chemotherapy in European studies were largely restricted to long-term survivors and included patients from the 1960s. Few population-based investigations have quantified CVD mortality during, shortly after, and for two decades after TC diagnosis in the era of cisplatin-based chemotherapy. Patients and Methods Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for CVD and absolute excess risks (AERs; number of excess deaths per 10,000 person-years) were calculated for 15,006 patients with testicular nonseminoma reported to the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (1980 to 2010) who initially received chemotherapy (n = 6,909) or surgery (n = 8,097) without radiotherapy and accrued 60,065 and 81,227 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Multivariable modeling evaluated effects of age, treatment, extent of disease, and other factors on CVD mortality. Results Significantly increased CVD mortality occurred after chemotherapy (SMR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.78; n = 54) but not surgery (SMR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.07; n = 50). Significant excess deaths after chemotherapy were restricted to the first year after TC diagnosis (SMR, 5.31; AER, 13.90; n = 11) and included cerebrovascular disease (SMR, 21.72; AER, 7.43; n = 5) and heart disease (SMR, 3.45; AER, 6.64; n = 6). In multivariable analyses, increased CVD mortality after chemotherapy was confined to the first year after TC diagnosis (hazard ratio, 4.86; 95% CI, 1.25 to 32.08); distant disease (P < .05) and older age at diagnosis (P < .01) were independent risk factors. Conclusion This is the first population-based study, to our knowledge, to quantify short- and long-term CVD mortality after TC diagnosis. The increased short-term risk of CVD deaths should be further explored in analytic studies that enumerate incident events and can serve to develop comprehensive evidence-based approaches for risk stratification and application of preventive and interventional efforts. PMID:26240226

Identifying unusual performance in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units from 2000 to 2010

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Adult Patient Database (APD) collects voluntary data on patient admissions to Australian and New Zealand intensive care units (ICUs). This paper presents an in-depth statistical analysis of risk-adjusted mortality of ICU admissions from 2000 to 2010 for the purpose of identifying ICUs with unusual performance. Methods A cohort of 523,462 patients from 144 ICUs was analysed. For each ICU, the natural logarithm of the standardised mortality ratio (log-SMR) was estimated from a risk-adjusted, three-level hierarchical model. This is the first time a three-level model has been fitted to such a large ICU database anywhere. The analysis was conducted in three stages which included the estimation of a null distribution to describe usual ICU performance. Log-SMRs with appropriate estimates of standard errors are presented in a funnel plot using 5% false discovery rate thresholds. False coverage-statement rate confidence intervals are also presented. The observed numbers of deaths for ICUs identified as unusual are compared to the predicted true worst numbers of deaths under the model for usual ICU performance. Results Seven ICUs were identified as performing unusually over the period 2000 to 2010, in particular, demonstrating high risk-adjusted mortality compared to the majority of ICUs. Four of the seven were ICUs in private hospitals. Our three-stage approach to the analysis detected outlying ICUs which were not identified in a conventional (single) risk-adjusted model for mortality using SMRs to compare ICUs. We also observed a significant linear decline in mortality over the decade. Distinct yearly and weekly respiratory seasonal effects were observed across regions of Australia and New Zealand for the first time. Conclusions The statistical approach proposed in this paper is intended to be used for the review of observed ICU and hospital mortality. Two important messages from our study are firstly, that comprehensive risk-adjustment is essential in modelling patient mortality for comparing performance, and secondly, that the appropriate statistical analysis is complicated. PMID:24755369

The effect of surgeon specialization on outcomes after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

PubMed

Hawkins, Alexander T; Smith, Ann D; Schaumeier, Maria J; de Vos, Marit S; Hevelone, Nathanael D; Nguyen, Louis L

2014-09-01

Although mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair has steadily declined, operative mortality for a ruptured AAA (rAAA) remains high. Repair of rAAA at hospitals with a higher elective aneurysm workload has been associated with lower mortality rates irrespective of the mode of treatment. This study sought to determine the association between surgeon specialization and outcomes after rAAA repair. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project database from 2005 to 2010 was used to examine the 30-day mortality and morbidity outcomes of patients undergoing rAAA repair by vascular and general surgeons. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed for each death and morbidity, adjusting for all independently predictive preoperative risk factors. Survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. We identified 1893 repairs of rAAAs, of which 1767 (96.1%) were performed by vascular surgeons and 72 (3.9%) were performed by general surgeons. There were no significant differences between patients operated on by general vs vascular surgeons in preoperative risk factors or method of repair. Overall 30-day mortality was 34.3% (649 of 1893). After risk adjustment, mortality was significantly lower in the vascular surgery group compared with the general surgery group (odds ratio [OR], 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30-0.86; P = .011). The risk of returning to the operating room (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.35-0.97; P = .038), renal failure (OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.31-0.95; P = .034), and a cardiac complication (OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.28-0.99; P = .047) were all significantly less in the vascular surgery group. Despite similar preoperative risk factors profiles, patients who were operated on by vascular surgeons had lower mortality, less frequent returns to the operating room, and decreased incidences of postoperative renal failure and cardiac events. These data add weight to the case for further centralization of vascular services. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Guideline-Based Statin Eligibility, Cancer Events, and Noncardiovascular Mortality in the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Pursnani, Amit; Massaro, Joseph M; D'Agostino, Ralph B; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Hoffmann, Udo

2017-09-01

Purpose Cancer and cardiovascular disease share risk factors, and there is some evidence that statins reduce cancer mortality. We sought to determine the accuracy of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association statin eligibility criteria to identify individuals at a higher risk of developing cancer or of dying as a result of cancer or other noncardiovascular causes. Methods We included 2,196 participants (50.5 ± 8.1 years of age; 55% female) who were statin naïve and free of cancer at baseline from the offspring and third-generation cohorts of the community-based longitudinal Framingham Heart Study. Statin eligibility was determined per American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines, and subclinical coronary atherosclerosis was assessed by computed tomography. The primary outcome was incident cancer at a median of 10.0 years (interquartile range, 9.1-10.6 years) of follow-up, and secondary outcomes were cancer mortality and noncardiovascular mortality. Results The incident cancer rate was 11.2% (247 of 2,196), with 58 noncardiovascular deaths, including 39 cancer deaths (1.8%). Overall, 37% (812 of 2,196) were statin eligible. Incident cancer occurred in 125 (15%) of the 812 statin-eligible participants versus 122 (8.8%) of the 1,384 of noneligible participants (subdistribution hazard ratio [SDHR], 1.8 [1.4 to 2.3]; P < .001). Cancer mortality occurred in 34 (4.2%) of the 812 statin-eligible participants versus five (0.4%) of the 1,384 noneligible participants (SDHR, 12.1 [4.7 to 31]; P < .001). Noncardiovascular mortality occurred in 49 (6.0%) of the 812 statin-eligible participants versus nine (0.7%) of the 1,384 noneligible participants (SDHR, 10.1 [5.0 to 21]; P < .001). In stratified analyses, these findings were independent of any individual causative risk factor such as body mass index, age, or smoking status. Conclusion In this community-based primary prevention cohort, guideline-based statin eligibility accurately identified patients at a higher risk of developing cancer and cancer-related mortality. Shared risk profiles and potential benefits of statins between cancer and cardiovascular outcomes may provide a unique opportunity to improve population health.

Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

PubMed

Carr, Brendan M; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C; Zhu, Wei; Shroyer, A Laurie

2016-01-01

Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Long-term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c-index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one-, three-, and five years, respectively (median follow-up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long-term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Long-term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long-term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher-risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow-up care. More research appears warranted to refine long-term CABG clinical risk models. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ethnicity and mortality from systemic lupus erythematosus in the US.

PubMed

Krishnan, E; Hubert, H B

2006-11-01

To study ethnic differences in mortality from systemic lupus erythematosus (lupus) in two large, population-based datasets. We analysed the national death data (1979-98) from the National Center for Health Statistics (Hyattsville, Maryland, USA) and hospitalisation data (1993-2002) from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), the largest hospitalisation database in the US. The overall, unadjusted, lupus mortality in the National Center for Health Statistics data was 4.6 per million, whereas the proportion of in-hospital mortality from the NIS was 2.9%. African-Americans had disproportionately higher mortality risk than Caucasians (all-cause mortality relative risk adjusted for age = 1.24 (women), 1.36 (men); lupus mortality relative risk = 3.91 (women), 2.40 (men)). Excess risk was found among in-hospital deaths (odds ratio adjusted for age = 1.4 (women), 1.3 (men)). Lupus death rates increased overall from 1979 to 98 (p<0.001). The proportional increase was greatest among African-Americans. Among Caucasian men, death rates declined significantly (p<0.001), but rates did not change substantially for African-American men. The African-American:Caucasian mortality ratio rose with time among men, but there was little change among women. In analyses of the NIS data adjusted for age, the in-hospital mortality risk decreased with time among Caucasian women (p<0.001). African-Americans with lupus have 2-3-fold higher lupus mortality risk than Caucasians. The magnitude of the risk disparity is disproportionately higher than the disparity in all-cause mortality. A lupus-specific biological factor, as opposed to socioeconomic and access-to-care factors, may be responsible for this phenomenon.

Sense of life worth living (ikigai) and mortality in Japan: Ohsaki Study.

PubMed

Sone, Toshimasa; Nakaya, Naoki; Ohmori, Kaori; Shimazu, Taichi; Higashiguchi, Mizuka; Kakizaki, Masako; Kikuchi, Nobutaka; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Tsuji, Ichiro

2008-07-01

To investigate the association between the sense of "life worth living (ikigai)" and the cause-specific mortality risk. The psychological factors play important roles in morbidity and mortality risks. However, the association between the negative psychological factors and the risk of mortality is inconclusive. The Ohsaki Study, a prospective cohort study, was initiated on 43,391 Japanese adults. To assess if the subjects found a sense of ikigai, they were asked the question, "Do you have ikigai in your life?" We used Cox regression analysis to calculate the hazard ratio of the all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to the sense of ikigai categories. Over 7 years' follow-up, 3048 of the subjects died. The risk of all-cause mortality was significantly higher among the subjects who did not find a sense of ikigai as compared with that in the subjects who found a sense of ikigai; the multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.5 (1.3-1.7). As for the cause-specific mortality, subjects who did not find a sense of ikigai were significantly associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (1.6; 1.3-2.0) and external cause mortality (1.9; 1.1-3.3), but not of the cancer mortality (1.3; 1.0-1.6). In this prospective cohort study, subjects who did not find a sense of ikigai were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. The increase in mortality risk was attributable to cardiovascular disease and external causes, but not cancer.

Trends in brain cancer mortality among U.S. Gulf War veterans: 21 year follow-up.

PubMed

Barth, Shannon K; Dursa, Erin K; Bossarte, Robert M; Schneiderman, Aaron I

2017-10-01

Previous mortality studies of U.S. Gulf War veterans through 2000 and 2004 have shown an increased risk of brain cancer mortality among some deployed individuals. When veterans possibly exposed to environmental contaminants associated with demolition of the Khamisiyah Ammunition Storage Facility at Khamisiyah, Iraq, have been compared to contemporaneously deployed unexposed veterans, the results have suggested increased risk for mortality from brain cancer among the exposed. Brain cancer mortality risk in this cohort has not been updated since 2004. This study analyzes the risk for brain cancer mortality between 1991-2011 through two series of comparisons: U.S. Gulf War deployed and non-deployed veterans from the same era; and veterans possibly exposed to environmental contaminants at Khamisiyah compared to contemporaneously deployed but unexposed U.S. Gulf War veterans. Risk of brain cancer mortality was determined using logistic regression. Life test hazard models were created to plot comparisons of annual hazard rates. Joinpoint regression models were applied to assess trends in hazard rates for brain cancer mortality. U.S. Army veterans possibly exposed at Khamisiyah had similar rates of brain cancer mortality compared to those not possibly exposed; however, veterans possibly exposed had a higher risk of brain cancer in the time period immediately following the Gulf War. Results from these analyses suggest that veterans possibly exposed at Khamisiyah experienced different patterns of brain cancer mortality risk compared to the other groups. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918–19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality. PMID:24996457

Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

PubMed

Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

2018-06-01

Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death score has many attractive attributes that address the key barriers to adoption of ICU risk adjustment algorithms and performs comparably to existing human-intensive algorithms. Automated risk adjustment algorithms have the potential to obviate known barriers to adoption such as cost-prohibitive licensing fees and significant direct labor costs. Further evaluation is needed to ensure that the level of performance observed in this study could be achieved at independent sites.

Diabetes mortality in Panama and related biological and socioeconomic risk factors.

PubMed

Motta, Jorge A; Ortega-Paz, Luis G; Gordón, Carlos A; Gómez, Beatriz; Castillo, Eva; Herrera Ballesteros, Víctor; Pereira, Manuel

2013-08-01

To estimate mortality from diabetes mellitus (DM) for the period 2001-2011 in the Republic of Panama, by province/indigenous territory, and determine its relationship with biological and socioeconomic risk factors. Cases for the years 2001-2011 with DM listed as the principal cause of death were selected from Panama's National Mortality Registry. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were generated by sex, age, and geographic area. Linear regression analyses were performed to determine the relationship between DM mortality and biological and socioeconomic risk factors. A composite health index (CHI) calculated from biological and socioeconomic risk factors was estimated for each province/indigenous territory in Panama. DM mortality rates did not increase for men or women during 2001-2011. Of the biological risk factors, being overweight had the strongest association with DM mortality. Of the socioeconomic risk factors, earning less than US$ 100 per month had the strongest association with DM mortality. The highest socioeconomic CHI scores were found in a province that is predominantly rural and in areas with indigenous populations. The highest biological CHI scores were found in urban-rural provinces and those with the highest percentage of elderly people. Regional disparities in the association between DM mortality and DM risk factors reaffirm the heterogeneous composition of the Panamanian population and the uneven distribution of biological and social determinant risk factors in the country and point to the need to vary management strategies by geographic area for this important cause of disability and death in Panama.

Blunted cyclic variation of heart rate predicts mortality risk in post-myocardial infarction, end-stage renal disease, and chronic heart failure patients

PubMed Central

Hayano, Junichiro; Yasuma, Fumihiko; Watanabe, Eiichi; Carney, Robert M.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Blumenthal, James A.; Arsenos, Petros; Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A.; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Ishii, Hideki; Kiyono, Ken; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu; Yoshida, Yutaka; Yuda, Emi; Kodama, Itsuo

2017-01-01

Abstract Aims Cyclic variation of heart rate (CVHR) associated with sleep-disordered breathing is thought to reflect cardiac autonomic responses to apnoeic/hypoxic stress. We examined whether blunted CVHR observed in ambulatory ECG could predict the mortality risk. Methods and results CVHR in night-time Holter ECG was detected by an automated algorithm, and the prognostic relationships of the frequency (FCV) and amplitude (ACV) of CVHR were examined in 717 patients after myocardial infarction (post-MI 1, 6% mortality, median follow-up 25 months). The predictive power was prospectively validated in three independent cohorts: a second group of 220 post-MI patients (post-MI 2, 25.5% mortality, follow-up 45 months); 299 patients with end-stage renal disease on chronic haemodialysis (ESRD, 28.1% mortality, follow-up 85 months); and 100 patients with chronic heart failure (CHF, 35% mortality, follow-up 38 months). Although CVHR was observed in ≥96% of the patients in all cohorts, FCV did not predict mortality in any cohort. In contrast, decreased ACV was a powerful predictor of mortality in the post-MI 1 cohort (hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1 ln [ms] decrement, 2.9 [2.2–3.7], P < 0.001). This prognostic relationship was validated in the post-MI 2 (1.8 [1.4–2.2], P < 0.001), ESRD (1.5 [1.3–1.8], P < 0.001), and CHF (1.4 [1.1–1.8], P = 0.02) cohorts. The prognostic value of ACV was independent of age, gender, diabetes, β-blocker therapy, left ventricular ejection fraction, sleep-time mean R-R interval, and FCV. Conclusion Blunted CVHR detected by decreased ACV in a night-time Holter ECG predicts increased mortality risk in post-MI, ESRD, and CHF patients. PMID:27789562

Inter-arm blood pressure difference and mortality: a cohort study in an asymptomatic primary care population at elevated cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Clark, Christopher E; Taylor, Rod S; Butcher, Isabella; Stewart, Marlene CW; Price, Jackie; Fowkes, F Gerald R; Shore, Angela C; Campbell, John L

2016-01-01

Background Differences in blood pressure between arms are associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in cohorts with established vascular disease or substantially elevated cardiovascular risk. Aim To explore the association of inter-arm difference (IAD) with mortality in a community-dwelling cohort that is free of cardiovascular disease. Design and setting Cohort analysis of a randomised controlled trial in central Scotland, from April 1998 to October 2008. Method Volunteers from Lanarkshire, Glasgow, and Edinburgh, free of pre-existing vascular disease and with an ankle-brachial index ≤0.95, had systolic blood pressure measured in both arms at recruitment. Inter-arm blood pressure differences were calculated and examined for cross-sectional associations and differences in prospective survival. Outcome measures were cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality during mean follow-up of 8.2 years. Results Based on a single pair of measurements, 60% of 3350 participants had a systolic IAD ≥5 mmHg and 38% ≥10 mmHg. An IAD ≥5 mmHg was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19 to 3.07) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.44, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.79). Within the subgroup of 764 participants who had hypertension, IADs of ≥5 mmHg or ≥10 mmHg were associated with both cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR 2.63, 95% CI = 0.97 to 7.02, and adjusted HR 2.96, 95% CI = 1.27 to 6.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.67, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.66, and adjusted HR 1.63, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.50, respectively). IADs ≥15 mmHg were not associated with survival differences in this population. Conclusion Systolic IADs in blood pressure are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, including mortality, in a large cohort of people free of pre-existing vascular disease. PMID:27080315

Association of Cardiorespiratory Fitness With Total, Cardiovascular, and Noncardiovascular Mortality Across 3 Decades of Follow-Up in Men and Women

PubMed Central

Vigen, Rebecca; Ayers, Colby; Willis, Benjamin; DeFina, Laura; Berry, Jarett D.

2013-01-01

Background The inverse, dose-dependent association between cardiorespiratory fitness and mortality is well-established; however, the pattern of the association between low fitness and mortality across short- (0 to 10 years), intermediate- (10 to 20 years), and long-term (>20 years) follow-up has not been studied. Methods and Results We included 46 575 men and 16 151 women (mean age 44 years) from the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study. Participants were categorized as either “low fit” or “not low fit,” based on age- and sex- adjusted treadmill times, and were followed for mortality, determined from the National Death Index. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to compare the association between fitness and traditional risk factors, with mortality outcomes across short-, intermediate-, and long-term follow-up. After a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 1295 cardiovascular disease and 2840 noncardiovascular disease deaths. Low fitness was associated with all-cause mortality across all periods in men [0 to 10 years: hazard ratios (HR), 1.99 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.66 to 2.40); 10 to 20 years: HR, 1.61 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.84); and >20 years: HR, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.60)] and in women [0 to 10 years: HR, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.27 to 3.10); 10 to 20 years: HR, 1.90 (95% CI, 1.40 to 2.56); and >20 years: HR, 1.54 (95% CI, 1.15 to 2.07)]. Similar results were seen for both cardiovascular disease and noncardiovascular disease mortality. Although these associations were also consistent across most subgroups, low fitness appeared to be most strongly associated with mortality in the short term among individuals at highest short-term risk (ie, older age, abnormal exercise test). Conclusions Similar to traditional risk factors, fitness is associated with mortality across short-, intermediate-, and long-term follow-up. PMID:22474246

Trends in geographical disparities for cervical cancer mortality in China from 1973 to 2013: a subnational spatio-temporal study

PubMed Central

Xia, Changfa; Ding, Chao; Zheng, Rongshou; Zhang, Siwei; Zeng, Hongmei; Wang, Jinfeng; Liao, Yilan; Zhang, Ningxu; Yang, Zhixun; Chen, Wanqing

2017-01-01

Objective This study was designed to explore the time trends in geographical variations of cervical cancer mortality in mainland China over the period 1973 to 2013, to provide subnational spatio-temporal patterns for targeted promotion of human papillomavirus vaccine in China. Methods Data were extracted from three national retrospective death surveys and cancer registry. The rate ratio (RR) was estimated for the aggregated data for seven geographical regions using generalized linear models to evaluate time trends in geographical disparities of cervical cancer mortality. Results There was a significant decrease in cervical cancer mortality in China from 1973–1975 to 2004–2005, but leveled off thereafter to 2011–2013. Compared to the period 1973–1975 the RR for the three last time periods were 0.33 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.30–0.37] for 1990–1992, 0.21 (95% CI: 0.19–0.24) for 2004–2005 and 0.24 (95% CI: 0.22–0.26) for 2011–2013. Females living in the Northwest China and Central China have a high risk of mortality from cervical cancer compared to the nationwide, with the RR being 2.09 (95% CI: 1.83–2.38) and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.11–1.44) respectively, while the RRs for South China, Northeast China and Southwest China were below 1.00, indicating the lower death risk. Despite the mortality rate had increased slightly from 2004 to 2013, there was an encouraging sign that the geographical disparities in cervical cancer mortality had gradually narrowed over time across China. Conclusions Although cervical cancer mortality in China has reduced to very low levels, the high risk of cervical cancer in Northwest China and Central China is still noteworthy. Public health policies including the promotion of vaccine should be targeted to further reduction of geographical disparities in cervical cancer mortality. PMID:29353971

Cancer mortality in a Chinese population exposed to hexavalent chromium in drinking water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beaumont, J.J.; Sedman, R.M.; Reynolds, S.D.; Sherman, C.D.; Li, L.-H.; Howd, R.A.; Sandy, M.S.; Zeise, L.; Alexeeff, G.V.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: In 1987, investigators in Liaoning Province, China, reported that mortality rates for all cancer, stomach cancer, and lung cancer in 1970-1978 were higher in villages with hexavalent chromium (Cr)-contaminated drinking water than in the general population. The investigators reported rates, but did not report statistical measures of association or precision. METHODS: Using reports and other communications from investigators at the local Jinzhou Health and Anti-Epidemic Station, we obtained data on Cr contamination of groundwater and cancer mortality in 9 study regions near a ferrochromium factory. We estimated:(1) person-years at risk in the study regions, based on census and population growth rate data, (2) mortality counts, based on estimated person-years at risk and previously reported mortality rates, and (3) rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: The all-cancer mortality rate in the combined 5 study regions with Cr-contaminated water was negligibly elevated in comparison with the rate in the 4 combined study regions without contaminated water (rate ratio = 1.13; 95% confidence interval = 0.86-1.46), but was somewhat more elevated in comparison with the whole province (1.23; 0.97-1.53). Stomach cancer mortality in the regions with contaminated water was more substantially elevated in comparison with the regions without contaminated water (1.82; 1.11-2.91) and the whole province (1.69; 1.12-2.44). Lung cancer mortality was slightly elevated in comparison with the unexposed study regions (1.15; 0.62-2.07), and more strongly elevated in comparison with the whole province (1.78; 1.03-2.87). Mortality from other cancers combined was not elevated in comparison with either the unexposed study regions (0.86; 0.53-1.36) or the whole province (0.92; 0.58-1.38). CONCLUSIONS: While these data are limited, they are consistent with increased stomach cancer risk in a population exposed to Cr in drinking water. ?? 2008 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Validation of the GRACE Risk score for hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome in the Arab Middle East.

PubMed

Yusufali, Afzalhussein; Zubaid, Mohammad; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim; Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi A; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Al Suwaidi, Jassim; AlMahmeed, Wael; Rashed, Wafa; Sulaiman, Kadhim; Amin, Haitham

2011-07-01

Our objective was to validate the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score for in-hospital mortality in a Middle Eastern acute coronary syndrome (ACS) population enrolled in the Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events (Gulf RACE). Out of 8176, unselected, consecutive patients with ACS, during 6 months in 2006 and 2007 from 63 hospitals in 6 Arab countries in the Middle East Gulf region, 7709 (94.3%) with available data were included. The main outcome measures were discriminatory performance (using C-index) and calibration of the GRACE risk score (in-hospital mortality predicted by GRACE risk score versus the actual mortality). In-hospital mortality in the Gulf RACE was 3.09% (n = 238). The discriminatory performance of the GRACE risk scores in the Gulf RACE was good overall (C-index = 0.86). Observed and predicted risk corresponded well in each stratum of risk of in-hospital mortality. This suggests its suitability for clinical use in this patient population.

Perinatal Outcomes, Including Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV, and Child Mortality and Their Association with Maternal Vitamin D Status in Tanzania

PubMed Central

Mehta, Saurabh; Hunter, David J.; Mugusi, Ferdinand M.; Spiegelman, Donna; Manji, Karim P.; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Hertzmark, Ellen; Msamanga, Gernard I.; Fawzi, Wafaie W.

2009-01-01

Background Vitamin D is a strong immunomodulator and may protect against adverse pregnancy outcomes, mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and child mortality. Methods A total of 884 HIV-infected pregnant women who were participating in a vitamin supplementation trial in Tanzania were monitored to assess pregnancy outcomes and child mortality. The association of these outcomes with maternal vitamin D status at enrollment was examined in an observational analysis. Results No association was observed between maternal vitamin D status and adverse pregnancy outcomes, including low birth weight and preterm birth. In multivariate models, a low maternal vitamin D level (<32 ng/mL) was associated with a 50% higher risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 2%–120%) of MTCT of HIV at 6 weeks, a 2-fold higher risk of MTCT of HIV through breast-feeding among children who were HIV uninfected at 6 weeks (95% CI, 1.08–3.82), and a 46% higher overall risk of HIV infection (95% CI, 11%–91%). Children born to women with a low vitamin D level had a 61% higher risk of dying during follow-up (95% CI, 25%–107%). Conclusions If found to be efficacious in randomized trials, vitamin D supplementation could prove to be an inexpensive method of reducing the burden of HIV infection and death among children, particularly in resource-limited settings. PMID:19673647

Life-time risk of mortality due to different levels of alcohol consumption in seven European countries: implications for low-risk drinking guidelines.

PubMed

Shield, Kevin D; Gmel, Gerrit; Gmel, Gerhard; Mäkelä, Pia; Probst, Charlotte; Room, Robin; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-09-01

Low-risk alcohol drinking guidelines require a scientific basis that extends beyond individual or group judgements of risk. Life-time mortality risks, judged against established thresholds for acceptable risk, may provide such a basis for guidelines. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate alcohol mortality risks for seven European countries based on different average daily alcohol consumption amounts. The maximum acceptable voluntary premature mortality risk was determined to be one in 1000, with sensitivity analyses of one in 100. Life-time mortality risks for different alcohol consumption levels were estimated by combining disease-specific relative risk and mortality data for seven European countries with different drinking patterns (Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy and Poland). Alcohol consumption data were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, relative risk data from meta-analyses and mortality information from the World Health Organization. The variation in the life-time mortality risk at drinking levels relevant for setting guidelines was less than that observed at high drinking levels. In Europe, the percentage of adults consuming above a risk threshold of one in 1000 ranged from 20.6 to 32.9% for women and from 35.4 to 54.0% for men. Life-time risk of premature mortality under current guideline maximums ranged from 2.5 to 44.8 deaths per 1000 women in Finland and Estonia, respectively, and from 2.9 to 35.8 deaths per 1000 men in Finland and Estonia, respectively. If based upon an acceptable risk of one in 1000, guideline maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men. If low-risk alcohol guidelines were based on an acceptable risk of one in 1000 premature deaths, then maximums for Europe should be 8-10 g/day for women and 15-20 g/day for men, and some of the current European guidelines would require downward revision. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Risk factors for in-hospital post-hip fracture mortality.

PubMed

Frost, Steven A; Nguyen, Nguyen D; Black, Deborah A; Eisman, John A; Nguyen, Tuan V

2011-09-01

Approximately 10% of hip fracture patients die during hospitalization; however, it is not clear what risk factors contribute to the excess mortality. This study sought to examine risk factors of, and to develop prognostic model for, predicting in-hospital mortality among hip fracture patients. We studied outcomes among 410 men and 1094 women with a hip fracture who were admitted to a major-teaching-hospital in Sydney (Australia) between 1997 and 2007. Clinical data, including concomitant illnesses, were obtained from inpatient data. The primary outcome of the study was in-hospital mortality regardless of length of stay. A Log-binomial regression model was used to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Using the identified risk factors, prognostic nomograms were developed for predicting short term risk of mortality for an individual. The median duration of hospitalization was 9 days. During hospitalization, the risk of mortality was higher in men (9%) than in women (4%). After adjusting for multiple risk factors, increased risk of in-hospital mortality was associated with advancing age (rate ratio [RR] for each 10-year increase in age: 1.91 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.47 to 2.49), in men (RR 2.13; 95% CI 1.41 to 3.22), and the presence of comorbid conditions on admission (RR for one or more comorbid conditions vs. none: 2.30; 95% CI 1.52 to 3.48). Specifically, the risk of mortality was increased in patients with a pre-existing congestive heart failure (RR 3.02; 95% CI: 1.65 to 5.54), and liver disease (RR 4.75; 95% CI: 1.87 to 12.1). These factors collectively accounted for 69% of the risk for in-hospital mortality. A nomogram was developed from these risk factors to individualize the risk of in-hospital death following a hip fracture. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final model containing age, sex and comorbid conditions was 0.76. These data suggest that among hip fracture patients, advancing age, gender (men), and pre-existing concomitant diseases such as congestive heart failure and liver disease were the main risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The nomogram developed from this study can be used to convey useful prognostic information to help guide treatment decisions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Wells, Brian J; Roth, Rachel; Nowacki, Amy S; Arrigain, Susana; Yu, Changhong; Rosenkrans, Wayne A; Kattan, Michael W

2013-01-01

Introduction. The objective of this study was to create a tool that accurately predicts the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes according to an oral hypoglycemic agent. Materials and Methods. The model was based on a cohort of 33,067 patients with type 2 diabetes who were prescribed a single oral hypoglycemic agent at the Cleveland Clinic between 1998 and 2006. Competing risk regression models were created for coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure, and stroke, while a Cox regression model was created for mortality. Propensity scores were used to account for possible treatment bias. A prediction tool was created and internally validated using tenfold cross-validation. The results were compared to a Framingham model and a model based on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) for CHD and stroke, respectively. Results and Discussion. Median follow-up for the mortality outcome was 769 days. The numbers of patients experiencing events were as follows: CHD (3062), heart failure (1408), stroke (1451), and mortality (3661). The prediction tools demonstrated the following concordance indices (c-statistics) for the specific outcomes: CHD (0.730), heart failure (0.753), stroke (0.688), and mortality (0.719). The prediction tool was superior to the Framingham model at predicting CHD and was at least as accurate as the UKPDS model at predicting stroke. Conclusions. We created an accurate tool for predicting the risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The calculator is available online at http://rcalc.ccf.org under the heading "Type 2 Diabetes" and entitled, "Predicting 5-Year Morbidity and Mortality." This may be a valuable tool to aid the clinician's choice of an oral hypoglycemic, to better inform patients, and to motivate dialogue between physician and patient.

Are pre-existing markers of chronic kidney disease associated with short-term mortality following acute community-acquired pneumonia and sepsis? A cohort study among older people with diabetes using electronic health records

PubMed Central

McDonald, Helen I.; Nitsch, Dorothea; Millett, Elizabeth R. C.; Sinclair, Alan; Thomas, Sara L.

2015-01-01

Background We aimed to examine whether pre-existing impaired estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria were associated with mortality following community-acquired pneumonia or sepsis among people aged ≥65 years with diabetes mellitus, without end-stage renal disease. Methods Patients were followed up from onset of first community-acquired pneumonia or sepsis episode in a cohort study using large, linked electronic health databases. Follow-up was for up to 90 days, unlimited by hospital discharge. We used generalized linear models with log link, normal distribution and robust standard errors to calculate risk ratios (RRs) for all-cause 28- and 90-day mortality according to two markers of chronic kidney disease: eGFR and proteinuria. Results All-cause mortality among the 4743 patients with pneumonia was 29.6% after 28 days and 37.4% after 90 days. Among the 1058 patients with sepsis, all-cause 28- and 90-day mortality were 35.6 and 44.2%, respectively. eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 was a risk marker of higher 28-day mortality for pneumonia (RR 1.27: 95% CI 1.12–1.43) and sepsis (RR 1.32: 95% CI 1.07–1.64), adjusted for age, sex, socio-economic status, smoking status and co-morbidities. Neither moderately impaired eGFR nor proteinuria were associated with short-term mortality following either infection. Conclusions People with pre-existing low eGFR but not on dialysis are at higher risk of death following pneumonia and sepsis. This association was not explained by existing co-morbidities. These patients need to be carefully monitored to prevent modifiable causes of death. PMID:25605811

Preconception maternal bereavement and infant and childhood mortality: A Danish population-based study

PubMed Central

Class, Quetzal A.; Mortensen, Preben B.; Henriksen, Tine B.; Dalman, Christina; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Khashan, Ali S.

2015-01-01

Objectives Preconception maternal bereavement may be associated with an increased risk for infant mortality, though these previously reported findings have not been replicated. We sought to examine if the association could be replicated and explore if risk extended into childhood. Methods Using a Danish population-based sample of offspring born 1979–2009 (N=1,865,454), we predicted neonatal (0–28 days), post-neonatal infant (29–364 days), and early childhood (1–5 years) mortality following maternal bereavement in the preconception (6–0 months before pregnancy) and prenatal (between conception and birth) periods. Maternal bereavement was defined as death of a first degree relative of the mother. Analyses were conducted using logistic and log-linear Poisson regression that were adjusted for offspring, mother, and father sociodemographic and health factors. Results We identified 6,541 (0.004%) neonates, 3,538 (0.002%) post-neonates, and 2,132 (0.001%) children between the ages of 1 to 5 years who died. After adjusting for covariates, bereavement during the preconception period was associated with an increased odds of neonatal (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.53–2.30) and post-neonatal infant mortality (aOR=1.52, 95% CI: 1.15–2.02). Associations were timing-specific (6 months prior to pregnancy only) and consistent across sensitivity analyses. Bereavement during the prenatal period was not consistently associated with increased risk of offspring mortality, however this may reflect relatively low statistical power. Conclusions Results support and extend previous findings linking bereavement during the preconception period with increased odds of early offspring mortality. The period immediately prior to pregnancy may be a sensitive period with potential etiological implications and ramifications for offspring mortality. PMID:26374948