A binary motor imagery tasks based brain-computer interface for two-dimensional movement control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Bin; Cao, Lei; Maysam, Oladazimi; Li, Jie; Xie, Hong; Su, Caixia; Birbaumer, Niels

2017-12-01

Objective. Two-dimensional movement control is a popular issue in brain-computer interface (BCI) research and has many applications in the real world. In this paper, we introduce a combined control strategy to a binary class-based BCI system that allows the user to move a cursor in a two-dimensional (2D) plane. Users focus on a single moving vector to control 2D movement instead of controlling vertical and horizontal movement separately. Approach. Five participants took part in a fixed-target experiment and random-target experiment to verify the effectiveness of the combination control strategy under the fixed and random routine conditions. Both experiments were performed in a virtual 2D dimensional environment and visual feedback was provided on the screen. Main results. The five participants achieved an average hit rate of 98.9% and 99.4% for the fixed-target experiment and the random-target experiment, respectively. Significance. The results demonstrate that participants could move the cursor in the 2D plane effectively. The proposed control strategy is based only on a basic two-motor imagery BCI, which enables more people to use it in real-life applications.

Prevention of EP Migratory Contamination in a Cluster Randomized Trial to Increase tPA Use in Stroke (The INSTINCT Trial)

PubMed Central

Weston, Victoria C.; Meurer, William J.; Frederiksen, Shirley M.; Fox, Allison K.; Scott, Phillip A.

2016-01-01

Objectives Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are increasingly utilized to evaluate quality improvement interventions aimed at healthcare providers. In trials testing emergency department interventions, migration of emergency physicians (EPs) between hospitals is an important concern, as contamination may affect both internal and external validity. We hypothesized that geographically isolating emergency departments would prevent migratory contamination in a CRT designed to increase ED delivery of tPA in stroke (The INSTINCT Trial). Methods INSTINCT was a prospective, cluster randomized, controlled trial. 24 Michigan community hospitals were randomly selected in matched pairs for study. Contamination was defined at the cluster level, with substantial contamination defined a priori as >10% of EPs affected. Non-adherence, total crossover (contamination + non-adherence), migration distance and characteristics were determined. Results 307 emergency physicians were identified at all sites. Overall, 7 (2.3%) changed study sites. 1 moved between control sites, leaving 6 (2.0%) total crossovers. Of these, 2 (0.7%) moved from intervention to control (contamination) and 4 (1.3%) moved from control to intervention (non-adherence). Contamination was observed in 2 of 12 control sites, with 17% and 9% contamination of the total site EP workforce at follow-up, respectively. Average migration distance was 42 miles for all EPs moving in the study and 35 miles for EPs moving from intervention to control sites. Conclusion The mobile nature of emergency physicians should be considered in the design of quality improvement CRTs. Increased reporting of contamination in CRTs is encouraged to clarify thresholds and facilitate CRT design. PMID:25440230

Effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions.

PubMed

Farhat, S C L; Paulo, R L P; Shimoda, T M; Conceição, G M S; Lin, C A; Braga, A L F; Warth, M P N; Saldiva, P H N

2005-02-01

In order to assess the effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory morbidity, we carried out a time series study using daily levels of PM10, SO2, NO2, ozone, and CO and daily numbers of pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions at the Children's Institute of the University of Sao Paulo Medical School, from August 1996 to August 1997. In this period there were 43,635 hospital emergency room visits, 4534 of which were due to lower respiratory tract disease. The total number of hospital admissions was 6785, 1021 of which were due to lower respiratory tract infectious and/or obstructive diseases. The three health end-points under investigation were the daily number of emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases, hospital admissions due to pneumonia, and hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were fitted, controlling for smooth functions of time, temperature and humidity, and an indicator of weekdays. NO2 was positively associated with all outcomes. Interquartile range increases (65.04 microg/m3) in NO2 moving averages were associated with an 18.4% increase (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 12.5-24.3) in emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases (4-day moving average), a 17.6% increase (95% CI = 3.3-32.7) in hospital admissions due to pneumonia or bronchopneumonia (3-day moving average), and a 31.4% increase (95% CI = 7.2-55.7) in hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis (2-day moving average). The study showed that air pollution considerably affects children's respiratory morbidity, deserving attention from the health authorities.

25 CFR 700.173 - Average net earnings of business or farm.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 25 Indians 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Average net earnings of business or farm. 700.173 Section... PROCEDURES Moving and Related Expenses, Temporary Emergency Moves § 700.173 Average net earnings of business or farm. (a) Computing net earnings. For purposes of this subpart, the average annual net earnings of...

25 CFR 700.173 - Average net earnings of business or farm.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Average net earnings of business or farm. 700.173 Section... PROCEDURES Moving and Related Expenses, Temporary Emergency Moves § 700.173 Average net earnings of business or farm. (a) Computing net earnings. For purposes of this subpart, the average annual net earnings of...

Identification of moving vehicle forces on bridge structures via moving average Tikhonov regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Chu-Dong; Yu, Ling; Liu, Huan-Lin

2017-08-01

Traffic-induced moving force identification (MFI) is a typical inverse problem in the field of bridge structural health monitoring. Lots of regularization-based methods have been proposed for MFI. However, the MFI accuracy obtained from the existing methods is low when the moving forces enter into and exit a bridge deck due to low sensitivity of structural responses to the forces at these zones. To overcome this shortcoming, a novel moving average Tikhonov regularization method is proposed for MFI by combining with the moving average concepts. Firstly, the bridge-vehicle interaction moving force is assumed as a discrete finite signal with stable average value (DFS-SAV). Secondly, the reasonable signal feature of DFS-SAV is quantified and introduced for improving the penalty function (∣∣x∣∣2 2) defined in the classical Tikhonov regularization. Then, a feasible two-step strategy is proposed for selecting regularization parameter and balance coefficient defined in the improved penalty function. Finally, both numerical simulations on a simply-supported beam and laboratory experiments on a hollow tube beam are performed for assessing the accuracy and the feasibility of the proposed method. The illustrated results show that the moving forces can be accurately identified with a strong robustness. Some related issues, such as selection of moving window length, effect of different penalty functions, and effect of different car speeds, are discussed as well.

Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies.

PubMed

Chan Phooi M'ng, Jacinta; Zainudin, Rozaimah

2016-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the trends in the exchange rate markets of the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia (IDR), Malaysia (MYR), the Philippines (PHP), Singapore (SGD), and Thailand (THB)) through the application of dynamic moving average trading systems. This research offers evidence of the usefulness of the time-varying volatility technical analysis indicator, Adjustable Moving Average (AMA') in deciphering trends in these ASEAN-5 exchange rate markets. This time-varying volatility factor, referred to as the Efficacy Ratio in this paper, is embedded in AMA'. The Efficacy Ratio adjusts the AMA' to the prevailing market conditions by avoiding whipsaws (losses due, in part, to acting on wrong trading signals, which generally occur when there is no general direction in the market) in range trading and by entering early into new trends in trend trading. The efficacy of AMA' is assessed against other popular moving-average rules. Based on the January 2005 to December 2014 dataset, our findings show that the moving averages and AMA' are superior to the passive buy-and-hold strategy. Specifically, AMA' outperforms the other models for the United States Dollar against PHP (USD/PHP) and USD/THB currency pairs. The results show that different length moving averages perform better in different periods for the five currencies. This is consistent with our hypothesis that a dynamic adjustable technical indicator is needed to cater for different periods in different markets.

Measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sites using open-path optical remote sensing method.

PubMed

Ro, Kyoung S; Johnson, Melvin H; Varma, Ravi M; Hashmonay, Ram A; Hunt, Patrick

2009-08-01

Improved characterization of distributed emission sources of greenhouse gases such as methane from concentrated animal feeding operations require more accurate methods. One promising method is recently used by the USEPA. It employs a vertical radial plume mapping (VRPM) algorithm using optical remote sensing techniques. We evaluated this method to estimate emission rates from simulated distributed methane sources. A scanning open-path tunable diode laser was used to collect path-integrated concentrations (PICs) along different optical paths on a vertical plane downwind of controlled methane releases. Each cycle consists of 3 ground-level PICs and 2 above ground PICs. Three- to 10-cycle moving averages were used to reconstruct mass equivalent concentration plum maps on the vertical plane. The VRPM algorithm estimated emission rates of methane along with meteorological and PIC data collected concomitantly under different atmospheric stability conditions. The derived emission rates compared well with actual released rates irrespective of atmospheric stability conditions. The maximum error was 22 percent when 3-cycle moving average PICs were used; however, it decreased to 11% when 10-cycle moving average PICs were used. Our validation results suggest that this new VRPM method may be used for improved estimations of greenhouse gas emission from a variety of agricultural sources.

Leg kinematics and muscle activity during treadmill running in the cockroach, Blaberus discoidalis: I. Slow running.

PubMed

Watson, J T; Ritzmann, R E

1998-01-01

We have combined high-speed video motion analysis of leg movements with electromyogram (EMG) recordings from leg muscles in cockroaches running on a treadmill. The mesothoracic (T2) and metathoracic (T3) legs have different kinematics. While in each leg the coxa-femur (CF) joint moves in unison with the femurtibia (FT) joint, the relative joint excursions differ between T2 and T3 legs. In T3 legs, the two joints move through approximately the same excursion. In T2 legs, the FT joint moves through a narrower range of angles than the CF joint. In spite of these differences in motion, no differences between the T2 and T3 legs were seen in timing or qualitative patterns of depressor coxa and extensor tibia activity. The average firing frequencies of slow depressor coxa (Ds) and slow extensor tibia (SETi) motor neurons are directly proportional to the average angular velocity of their joints during stance. The average Ds and SETi firing frequency appears to be modulated on a cycle-by-cycle basis to control running speed and orientation. In contrast, while the frequency variations within Ds and SETi bursts were consistent across cycles, the variations within each burst did not parallel variations in the velocity of the relevant joints.

A Posteriori Quantification of Rate-Controlling Effects from High-Intensity Turbulence-Flame Interactions Using 4D Measurements

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-22

Unclassified REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1...compact at all conditions tested, as indicated by the overlap of OH and CH2O distributions. 5. We developed analytical techniques for pseudo- Lagrangian ...condition in a constant density flow requires that the flow divergence is zero, ∇ · ~u = 0. Three smoothing schemes were examined, a moving average (i.e

Prevention of emergency physician migratory contamination in a cluster randomized trial to increase tissue plasminogen activator use in stroke (the INSTINCT trial).

PubMed

Weston, Victoria C; Meurer, William J; Frederiksen, Shirley M; Fox, Allison K; Scott, Phillip A

2014-12-01

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are increasingly used to evaluate quality improvement interventions aimed at health care providers. In trials testing emergency department (ED) interventions, migration of emergency physicians (EPs) between hospitals is an important concern, as contamination may affect both internal and external validity. We hypothesized that geographically isolating EDs would prevent migratory contamination in a CRT designed to increase ED delivery of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in stroke (the INSTINCT trial). INSTINCT was a prospective, cluster randomized, controlled trial. Twenty-four Michigan community hospitals were randomly selected in matched pairs for study. Contamination was defined at the cluster level, with substantial contamination defined a priori as greater than 10% of EPs affected. Nonadherence, total crossover (contamination+nonadherence), migration distance, and characteristics were determined. Three hundred seven EPs were identified at all sites. Overall, 7 (2.3%) changed study sites. One moved between control sites, leaving 6 (2.0%) total crossovers. Of these, 2 (0.7%) moved from intervention to control (contamination); and 4 (1.3%) moved from control to intervention (nonadherence). Contamination was observed in 2 of 12 control sites, with 17% and 9% contamination of the total site EP workforce at follow-up, respectively. Average migration distance was 42 miles for all EPs moving in the study and 35 miles for EPs moving from intervention to control sites. The mobile nature of EPs should be considered in the design of quality improvement CRTs. Increased reporting of contamination in CRTs is encouraged to clarify thresholds and facilitate CRT design. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the trends in the exchange rate markets of the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia (IDR), Malaysia (MYR), the Philippines (PHP), Singapore (SGD), and Thailand (THB)) through the application of dynamic moving average trading systems. This research offers evidence of the usefulness of the time-varying volatility technical analysis indicator, Adjustable Moving Average (AMA′) in deciphering trends in these ASEAN-5 exchange rate markets. This time-varying volatility factor, referred to as the Efficacy Ratio in this paper, is embedded in AMA′. The Efficacy Ratio adjusts the AMA′ to the prevailing market conditions by avoiding whipsaws (losses due, in part, to acting on wrong trading signals, which generally occur when there is no general direction in the market) in range trading and by entering early into new trends in trend trading. The efficacy of AMA′ is assessed against other popular moving-average rules. Based on the January 2005 to December 2014 dataset, our findings show that the moving averages and AMA′ are superior to the passive buy-and-hold strategy. Specifically, AMA′ outperforms the other models for the United States Dollar against PHP (USD/PHP) and USD/THB currency pairs. The results show that different length moving averages perform better in different periods for the five currencies. This is consistent with our hypothesis that a dynamic adjustable technical indicator is needed to cater for different periods in different markets. PMID:27574972

Timescale Halo: Average-Speed Targets Elicit More Positive and Less Negative Attributions than Slow or Fast Targets

PubMed Central

Hernandez, Ivan; Preston, Jesse Lee; Hepler, Justin

2014-01-01

Research on the timescale bias has found that observers perceive more capacity for mind in targets moving at an average speed, relative to slow or fast moving targets. The present research revisited the timescale bias as a type of halo effect, where normal-speed people elicit positive evaluations and abnormal-speed (slow and fast) people elicit negative evaluations. In two studies, participants viewed videos of people walking at a slow, average, or fast speed. We find evidence for a timescale halo effect: people walking at an average-speed were attributed more positive mental traits, but fewer negative mental traits, relative to slow or fast moving people. These effects held across both cognitive and emotional dimensions of mind and were mediated by overall positive/negative ratings of the person. These results suggest that, rather than eliciting greater perceptions of general mind, the timescale bias may reflect a generalized positivity toward average speed people relative to slow or fast moving people. PMID:24421882

Use of spatiotemporal characteristics of ambient PM2.5 in rural South India to infer local versus regional contributions.

PubMed

Kumar, M Kishore; Sreekanth, V; Salmon, Maëlle; Tonne, Cathryn; Marshall, Julian D

2018-08-01

This study uses spatiotemporal patterns in ambient concentrations to infer the contribution of regional versus local sources. We collected 12 months of monitoring data for outdoor fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in rural southern India. Rural India includes more than one-tenth of the global population and annually accounts for around half a million air pollution deaths, yet little is known about the relative contribution of local sources to outdoor air pollution. We measured 1-min averaged outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations during June 2015-May 2016 in three villages, which varied in population size, socioeconomic status, and type and usage of domestic fuel. The daily geometric-mean PM 2.5 concentration was ∼30 μg m -3 (geometric standard deviation: ∼1.5). Concentrations exceeded the Indian National Ambient Air Quality standards (60 μg m -3 ) during 2-5% of observation days. Average concentrations were ∼25 μg m -3 higher during winter than during monsoon and ∼8 μg m -3 higher during morning hours than the diurnal average. A moving average subtraction method based on 1-min average PM 2.5 concentrations indicated that local contributions (e.g., nearby biomass combustion, brick kilns) were greater in the most populated village, and that overall the majority of ambient PM 2.5 in our study was regional, implying that local air pollution control strategies alone may have limited influence on local ambient concentrations. We compared the relatively new moving average subtraction method against a more established approach. Both methods broadly agree on the relative contribution of local sources across the three sites. The moving average subtraction method has broad applicability across locations. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Examination of the Armagh Observatory Annual Mean Temperature Record, 1844-2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2006-01-01

The long-term annual mean temperature record (1844-2004) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom) is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar/geomagnetic forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both are apparent in the temperature record. Moving averages for 10 years of temperature are found to highly correlate against both 10-year moving averages of the aa-geomagnetic index and sunspot number, having correlation coefficients of approx. 0.7, inferring that nearly half the variance in the 10-year moving average of temperature can be explained by solar/geomagnetic forcing. The residuals appear episodic in nature, with cooling seen in the 1880s and again near 1980. Seven of the last 10 years of the temperature record has exceeded 10 C, unprecedented in the overall record. Variation of sunspot cyclic averages and 2-cycle moving averages of temperature strongly associate with similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle, with the residuals displaying an apparent 9-cycle variation and a steep rise in temperature associated with cycle 23. Hale cycle averages of temperature for even-odd pairs of sunspot cycles correlate against similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle and, especially, against the length of the Hale cycle. Indications are that annual mean temperature will likely exceed 10 C over the next decade.

Use of tylvalosin in the control of porcine enzootic pneumonia.

PubMed

Pallarés, F J; Lasa, C; Roozen, M; Ramis, G

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficacy of tylvalosin (Aivlosin Water Soluble Granules, ECO Animal Health) in drinking water for control of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae (M hyo) on a farm with chronic enzootic pneumonia (EP) problems and high prevalence of mycoplasma-like lesions at slaughter. On a 4000-sow farm in the southeast of Spain, 1500 animals of same age were randomly divided into two groups: 900 pigs in the treated group (TG) and 600 pigs in the non-treated control group (CG). TG was medicated for seven days with tylvalosin in drinking water (2.5 mg tylvalosin/kg bodyweight (BW)) at weaning (from 21st to 28th day of life) and a second treatment when moved to finisher barn (from 63rd to 70th day of life). In the TG, there was a significant reduction in the severity (P<0.001) and number of animals with lung lesions (P<0.001) compared with CG. TG had an increased average daily gain and decreased average number of days in finishing. TG had a lower average carcase weight, but improved homogeneity. M hyo was not detected by q-PCR in samples, taken from lungs with characteristic EP lesions in the TG (0/9), in contrast to the CG (8/9 positive). A strategic medication with Aivlosin at 2.5 mg tylvalosin/kg BW in drinking water for seven days at weaning and when moved to finisher barn significantly reduces mycoplasma-like lung lesions and improves productivity parameters.

Automated digital magnetofluidics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, J.; Garcia, A. A.; Marquez, M.

2008-08-01

Drops can be moved in complex patterns on superhydrophobic surfaces using a reconfigured computer-controlled x-y metrology stage with a high degree of accuracy, flexibility, and reconfigurability. The stage employs a DMC-4030 controller which has a RISC-based, clock multiplying processor with DSP functions, accepting encoder inputs up to 22 MHz, provides servo update rates as high as 32 kHz, and processes commands at rates as fast as 40 milliseconds. A 6.35 mm diameter cylindrical NdFeB magnet is translated by the stage causing water drops to move by the action of induced magnetization of coated iron microspheres that remain in the drop and are attracted to the rare earth magnet through digital magnetofluidics. Water drops are easily moved in complex patterns in automated digital magnetofluidics at an average speed of 2.8 cm/s over a superhydrophobic polyethylene surface created by solvent casting. With additional components, some potential uses for this automated microfluidic system include characterization of superhydrophobic surfaces, water quality analysis, and medical diagnostics.

In-use activity, fuel use, and emissions of heavy-duty diesel roll-off refuse trucks.

PubMed

Sandhu, Gurdas S; Frey, H Christopher; Bartelt-Hunt, Shannon; Jones, Elizabeth

2015-03-01

The objectives of this study were to quantify real-world activity, fuel use, and emissions for heavy duty diesel roll-off refuse trucks; evaluate the contribution of duty cycles and emissions controls to variability in cycle average fuel use and emission rates; quantify the effect of vehicle weight on fuel use and emission rates; and compare empirical cycle average emission rates with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES emission factor model predictions. Measurements were made at 1 Hz on six trucks of model years 2005 to 2012, using onboard systems. The trucks traveled 870 miles, had an average speed of 16 mph, and collected 165 tons of trash. The average fuel economy was 4.4 mpg, which is approximately twice previously reported values for residential trash collection trucks. On average, 50% of time is spent idling and about 58% of emissions occur in urban areas. Newer trucks with selective catalytic reduction and diesel particulate filter had NOx and PM cycle average emission rates that were 80% lower and 95% lower, respectively, compared to older trucks without. On average, the combined can and trash weight was about 55% of chassis weight. The marginal effect of vehicle weight on fuel use and emissions is highest at low loads and decreases as load increases. Among 36 cycle average rates (6 trucks×6 cycles), MOVES-predicted values and estimates based on real-world data have similar relative trends. MOVES-predicted CO2 emissions are similar to those of the real world, while NOx and PM emissions are, on average, 43% lower and 300% higher, respectively. The real-world data presented here can be used to estimate benefits of replacing old trucks with new trucks. Further, the data can be used to improve emission inventories and model predictions. In-use measurements of the real-world activity, fuel use, and emissions of heavy-duty diesel roll-off refuse trucks can be used to improve the accuracy of predictive models, such as MOVES, and emissions inventories. Further, the activity data from this study can be used to generate more representative duty cycles for more accurate chassis dynamometer testing. Comparisons of old and new model year diesel trucks are useful in analyzing the effect of fleet turnover. The analysis of effect of haul weight on fuel use can be used by fleet managers to optimize operations to reduce fuel cost.

A monitoring tool for performance improvement in plastic surgery at the individual level.

PubMed

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Duclos, Antoine; Orgill, Dennis; Carty, Matthew J

2013-05-01

The assessment of performance in surgery is expanding significantly. Application of relevant frameworks to plastic surgery, however, has been limited. In this article, the authors present two robust graphic tools commonly used in other industries that may serve to monitor individual surgeon operative time while factoring in patient- and surgeon-specific elements. The authors reviewed performance data from all bilateral reduction mammaplasties performed at their institution by eight surgeons between 1995 and 2010. Operative time was used as a proxy for performance. Cumulative sum charts and exponentially weighted moving average charts were generated using a train-test analytic approach, and used to monitor surgical performance. Charts mapped crude, patient case-mix-adjusted, and case-mix and surgical-experience-adjusted performance. Operative time was found to decline from 182 minutes to 118 minutes with surgical experience (p < 0.001). Cumulative sum and exponentially weighted moving average charts were generated using 1995 to 2007 data (1053 procedures) and tested on 2008 to 2010 data (246 procedures). The sensitivity and accuracy of these charts were significantly improved by adjustment for case mix and surgeon experience. The consideration of patient- and surgeon-specific factors is essential for correct interpretation of performance in plastic surgery at the individual surgeon level. Cumulative sum and exponentially weighted moving average charts represent accurate methods of monitoring operative time to control and potentially improve surgeon performance over the course of a career.

Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Cristina Teresa

2015-02-01

The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

THE VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION OF NEARBY STARS FROM HIPPARCOS DATA. II. THE NATURE OF THE LOW-VELOCITY MOVING GROUPS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bovy, Jo; Hogg, David W., E-mail: jo.bovy@nyu.ed

2010-07-10

The velocity distribution of nearby stars ({approx}<100 pc) contains many overdensities or 'moving groups', clumps of comoving stars, that are inconsistent with the standard assumption of an axisymmetric, time-independent, and steady-state Galaxy. We study the age and metallicity properties of the low-velocity moving groups based on the reconstruction of the local velocity distribution in Paper I of this series. We perform stringent, conservative hypothesis testing to establish for each of these moving groups whether it could conceivably consist of a coeval population of stars. We conclude that they do not: the moving groups are neither trivially associated with their eponymousmore » open clusters nor with any other inhomogeneous star formation event. Concerning a possible dynamical origin of the moving groups, we test whether any of the moving groups has a higher or lower metallicity than the background population of thin disk stars, as would generically be the case if the moving groups are associated with resonances of the bar or spiral structure. We find clear evidence that the Hyades moving group has higher than average metallicity and weak evidence that the Sirius moving group has lower than average metallicity, which could indicate that these two groups are related to the inner Lindblad resonance of the spiral structure. Further, we find weak evidence that the Hercules moving group has higher than average metallicity, as would be the case if it is associated with the bar's outer Lindblad resonance. The Pleiades moving group shows no clear metallicity anomaly, arguing against a common dynamical origin for the Hyades and Pleiades groups. Overall, however, the moving groups are barely distinguishable from the background population of stars, raising the likelihood that the moving groups are associated with transient perturbations.« less

Development of a fuel cell plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and vehicle simulator for energy management assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meintz, Andrew Lee

This dissertation offers a description of the development of a fuel cell plug-in hybrid electric vehicle focusing on the propulsion architecture selection, propulsion system control, and high-level energy management. Two energy management techniques have been developed and implemented for real-time control of the vehicle. The first method is a heuristic method that relies on a short-term moving average of the vehicle power requirements. The second method utilizes an affine function of the short-term and long-term moving average vehicle power requirements. The development process of these methods has required the creation of a vehicle simulator capable of estimating the effect of changes to the energy management control techniques on the overall vehicle energy efficiency. Furthermore, the simulator has allowed for the refinement of the energy management methods and for the stability of the method to be analyzed prior to on-road testing. This simulator has been verified through on-road testing of a constructed prototype vehicle under both highway and city driving schedules for each energy management method. The results of the finalized vehicle control strategies are compared with the simulator predictions and an assessment of the effectiveness of both strategies is discussed. The methods have been evaluated for energy consumption in the form of both hydrogen fuel and stored electricity from grid charging.

Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process.

PubMed

Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

2013-05-24

Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995-2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) "in-control" status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag40 and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag40; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals which were in-control with respect to EWMA control limits and one-step prediction error limits (3SE). The expected series was modelled with a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive model. The data generating process of monthly raw mortality series at the ICU level displayed autocorrelation, seasonality and volatility. False-positive signalling of the raw mortality series was evident with respect to RA-EWMA control limits. A time series approach using residual control charts resolved these issues.

On the Relationship between Solar Wind Speed, Earthward-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Sunspot Cycle Using 12-Month Moving Averages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2008-01-01

For 1996 .2006 (cycle 23), 12-month moving averages of the aa geomagnetic index strongly correlate (r = 0.92) with 12-month moving averages of solar wind speed, and 12-month moving averages of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (halo and partial halo events) strongly correlate (r = 0.87) with 12-month moving averages of sunspot number. In particular, the minimum (15.8, September/October 1997) and maximum (38.0, August 2003) values of the aa geomagnetic index occur simultaneously with the minimum (376 km/s) and maximum (547 km/s) solar wind speeds, both being strongly correlated with the following recurrent component (due to high-speed streams). The large peak of aa geomagnetic activity in cycle 23, the largest on record, spans the interval late 2002 to mid 2004 and is associated with a decreased number of halo and partial halo CMEs, whereas the smaller secondary peak of early 2005 seems to be associated with a slight rebound in the number of halo and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed aaM during the declining portion of cycle 23, RM for cycle 24 is predicted to be larger than average, being about 168+/-60 (the 90% prediction interval), whereas based on the expected aam for cycle 24 (greater than or equal to 14.6), RM for cycle 24 should measure greater than or equal to 118+/-30, yielding an overlap of about 128+/-20.

Neural network-based run-to-run controller using exposure and resist thickness adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geary, Shane; Barry, Ronan

2003-06-01

This paper describes the development of a run-to-run control algorithm using a feedforward neural network, trained using the backpropagation training method. The algorithm is used to predict the critical dimension of the next lot using previous lot information. It is compared to a common prediction algorithm - the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and is shown to give superior prediction performance in simulations. The manufacturing implementation of the final neural network showed significantly improved process capability when compared to the case where no run-to-run control was utilised.

An analysis of underlying factors for seasonal variation in gonorrhoea in India: a 6-year statistical assessment.

PubMed

Kakran, M; Bala, M; Singh, V

2015-01-01

A statistical assessment of a disease is often necessary before resources can be allocated to any control programme. No literature on seasonal trends of gonorrhoea is available from India. The objectives were (1) to determine, if any, seasonal trends were present in India (2) to describe factors contributing to seasonality of gonorrhoea (3) to formulate approaches for gonorrhoea control at the national level. Seasonal indices for gonorrhoea were calculated quarterly in terms of a seasonal index between 2005 and 2010. Ratio-to-moving average method was used to determine the seasonal variation. The original data values in the time-series were expressed as percentages of moving averages. Results were also analyzed by second statistical method i.e. seasonal subseries plot. The seasonally adjusted average for culture-positive gonorrhoea cases was highest in the second quarter (128.61%) followed by third quarter (108.48%) while a trough was observed in the first (96.05%) and last quarter (64.85%). The second quarter peak was representative of summer vacations in schools and colleges. Moreover, April is the harvesting month followed by celebrations and social gatherings. Both these factors are associated with increased sexual activity and partner change. A trough in first and last quarter was indicative of festival season and winter leading to less patients reporting to the hospital. The findings highlight the immediate need to strengthen sexual health education among young people in schools and colleges and education on risk-reduction practices especially at crucial points in the calendar year for effective gonorrhoea control.

Use of tylvalosin in the control of porcine enzootic pneumonia

PubMed Central

Pallarés, F. J.; Lasa, C.; Roozen, M.; Ramis, G.

2015-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficacy of tylvalosin (Aivlosin Water Soluble Granules, ECO Animal Health) in drinking water for control of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae (M hyo) on a farm with chronic enzootic pneumonia (EP) problems and high prevalence of mycoplasma-like lesions at slaughter. Design On a 4000-sow farm in the southeast of Spain, 1500 animals of same age were randomly divided into two groups: 900 pigs in the treated group (TG) and 600 pigs in the non-treated control group (CG). TG was medicated for seven days with tylvalosin in drinking water (2.5 mg tylvalosin/kg bodyweight (BW)) at weaning (from 21st to 28th day of life) and a second treatment when moved to finisher barn (from 63rd to 70th day of life). Results In the TG, there was a significant reduction in the severity (P<0.001) and number of animals with lung lesions (P<0.001) compared with CG. TG had an increased average daily gain and decreased average number of days in finishing. TG had a lower average carcase weight, but improved homogeneity. M hyo was not detected by q-PCR in samples, taken from lungs with characteristic EP lesions in the TG (0/9), in contrast to the CG (8/9 positive). Conclusions A strategic medication with Aivlosin at 2.5 mg tylvalosin/kg BW in drinking water for seven days at weaning and when moved to finisher barn significantly reduces mycoplasma-like lung lesions and improves productivity parameters. PMID:26392896

REVIEW ARTICLE: Hither and yon: a review of bi-directional microtubule-based transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, Steven P.

2004-06-01

Active transport is critical for cellular organization and function, and impaired transport has been linked to diseases such as neuronal degeneration. Much long distance transport in cells uses opposite polarity molecular motors of the kinesin and dynein families to move cargos along microtubules. It is increasingly clear that many cargos are moved by both sets of motors, and frequently reverse course. This review compares this bi-directional transport to the more well studied uni-directional transport. It discusses some bi-directionally moving cargos, and critically evaluates three different physical models for how such transport might occur. It then considers the evidence for the number of active motors per cargo, and how the net or average direction of transport might be controlled. The likelihood of a complex linking the activities of kinesin and dynein is also discussed. The paper concludes by reviewing elements of apparent universality between different bi-directionally moving cargos and by briefly considering possible reasons for the existence of bi-directional transport.

The Use of an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Prediction of the Incidence of Dysentery in Jiangsu, China.

PubMed

Wang, Kewei; Song, Wentao; Li, Jinping; Lu, Wu; Yu, Jiangang; Han, Xiaofeng

2016-05-01

The aim of this study is to forecast the incidence of bacillary dysentery with a prediction model. We collected the annual and monthly laboratory data of confirmed cases from January 2004 to December 2014. In this study, we applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast bacillary dysentery incidence in Jiangsu, China. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) × (1, 1, 2)12 model fitted exactly with the number of cases during January 2004 to December 2014. The fitted model was then used to predict bacillary dysentery incidence during the period January to August 2015, and the number of cases fell within the model's CI for the predicted number of cases during January-August 2015. This study shows that the ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in bacillary dysentery frequency, and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to bacillary dysentery prevention and control. © 2016 APJPH.

Flow separation in a computational oscillating vocal fold model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alipour, Fariborz; Scherer, Ronald C.

2004-09-01

A finite-volume computational model that solves the time-dependent glottal airflow within a forced-oscillation model of the glottis was employed to study glottal flow separation. Tracheal input velocity was independently controlled with a sinusoidally varying parabolic velocity profile. Control parameters included flow rate (Reynolds number), oscillation frequency and amplitude of the vocal folds, and the phase difference between the superior and inferior glottal margins. Results for static divergent glottal shapes suggest that velocity increase caused glottal separation to move downstream, but reduction in velocity increase and velocity decrease moved the separation upstream. At the fixed frequency, an increase of amplitude of the glottal walls moved the separation further downstream during glottal closing. Increase of Reynolds number caused the flow separation to move upstream in the glottis. The flow separation cross-sectional ratio ranged from approximately 1.1 to 1.9 (average of 1.47) for the divergent shapes. Results suggest that there may be a strong interaction of rate of change of airflow, inertia, and wall movement. Flow separation appeared to be ``delayed'' during the vibratory cycle, leading to movement of the separation point upstream of the glottal end only after a significant divergent angle was reached, and to persist upstream into the convergent phase of the cycle.

Annual forest inventory estimates based on the moving average

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch; James R. Steinman; Michael T. Thompson

2002-01-01

Three interpretations of the simple moving average estimator, as applied to the USDA Forest Service's annual forest inventory design, are presented. A corresponding approach to composite estimation over arbitrarily defined land areas and time intervals is given for each interpretation, under the assumption that the investigator is armed with only the spatial/...

78 FR 26879 - Medicare Program; Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Prospective Payment System for Federal Fiscal...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-08

...: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), HHS. ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: This proposed rule..., especially the teaching status adjustment factor. Therefore, we implemented a 3-year moving average approach... moving average to calculate the facility-level adjustment factors. For FY 2011, we issued a notice to...

Allethrin-Based Mosquito Control Device Causing Knockdown, Morbidity, and Mortality in Four Species of Field-Caught Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae).

PubMed

Bibbs, Christopher S; Fulcher, Ali; Xue, Rui-De

2015-07-01

A mosquito control device marketed for spatial repellency, the ThermaCELL Mosquito Repellent Appliance, was evaluated in semifield trials against multiple field-caught species of mosquito. Using paper and mesh cages, mosquito test groups of at least 30 mosquitoes were suspended in a 2,337 cubic foot outdoor space while two ThermaCELL repellent devices were active. After 30 min of treatment, cages were moved to the laboratory to observe knockdown, morbidity, and mortality for 24 h. Species tested included Aedes atlanticus Dyar and Knab (98% average mortality), Psorophora ferox Humboldt (97% average mortality), Psorophora columbiae Dyar and Knab (96% average mortality), and Aedes taeniorhynchus Wiedemann (84% average mortality). The repellent devices showed effectiveness with high knockdown and mortality across all species tested. Mosquito control devices like the ThermaCELL Mosquito Repellent Appliance may have further practical applications to help combat viral exposures by limiting host mosquitoes. Such devices may provide a functional alternative to DEET dependence in the current state of mosquito management. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2008-01-01

Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize the probable levels of atrazine for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks. Sites with a high probability of exceeding a benchmark for human health or aquatic life can be prioritized for monitoring.

Correcting for day of the week and public holiday effects: improving a national daily syndromic surveillance service for detecting public health threats.

PubMed

Buckingham-Jeffery, Elizabeth; Morbey, Roger; House, Thomas; Elliot, Alex J; Harcourt, Sally; Smith, Gillian E

2017-05-19

As service provision and patient behaviour varies by day, healthcare data used for public health surveillance can exhibit large day of the week effects. These regular effects are further complicated by the impact of public holidays. Real-time syndromic surveillance requires the daily analysis of a range of healthcare data sources, including family doctor consultations (called general practitioners, or GPs, in the UK). Failure to adjust for such reporting biases during analysis of syndromic GP surveillance data could lead to misinterpretations including false alarms or delays in the detection of outbreaks. The simplest smoothing method to remove a day of the week effect from daily time series data is a 7-day moving average. Public Health England developed the working day moving average in an attempt also to remove public holiday effects from daily GP data. However, neither of these methods adequately account for the combination of day of the week and public holiday effects. The extended working day moving average was developed. This is a further data-driven method for adding a smooth trend curve to a time series graph of daily healthcare data, that aims to take both public holiday and day of the week effects into account. It is based on the assumption that the number of people seeking healthcare services is a combination of illness levels/severity and the ability or desire of patients to seek healthcare each day. The extended working day moving average was compared to the seven-day and working day moving averages through application to data from two syndromic indicators from the GP in-hours syndromic surveillance system managed by Public Health England. The extended working day moving average successfully smoothed the syndromic healthcare data by taking into account the combined day of the week and public holiday effects. In comparison, the seven-day and working day moving averages were unable to account for all these effects, which led to misleading smoothing curves. The results from this study make it possible to identify trends and unusual activity in syndromic surveillance data from GP services in real-time independently of the effects caused by day of the week and public holidays, thereby improving the public health action resulting from the analysis of these data.

Method and Apparatus for the Portable Identification of Material Thickness and Defects Using Spatially Controlled Heat Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cramer, K. Elliott (Inventor); Winfree, William P. (Inventor)

1999-01-01

A method and a portable apparatus for the nondestructive identification of defects in structures. The apparatus comprises a heat source and a thermal imager that move at a constant speed past a test surface of a structure. The thermal imager is off set at a predetermined distance from the heat source. The heat source induces a constant surface temperature. The imager follows the heat source and produces a video image of the thermal characteristics of the test surface. Material defects produce deviations from the constant surface temperature that move at the inverse of the constant speed. Thermal noise produces deviations that move at random speed. Computer averaging of the digitized thermal image data with respect to the constant speed minimizes noise and improves the signal of valid defects. The motion of thermographic equipment coupled with the high signal to noise ratio render it suitable for portable, on site analysis.

Moving in the Right Direction: Helping Children Cope with a Relocation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kruse, Tricia

2012-01-01

According to national figures, 37.1 million people moved in 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). In fact, the average American will move 11.7 times in their lifetime. Why are Americans moving so much? There are a variety of reasons. Regardless of the reason, moving is a common experience for children. If one looks at the developmental characteristics…

Neural controller for adaptive movements with unforeseen payloads.

PubMed

Kuperstein, M; Wang, J

1990-01-01

A theory and computer simulation of a neural controller that learns to move and position a link carrying an unforeseen payload accurately are presented. The neural controller learns adaptive dynamic control from its own experience. It does not use information about link mass, link length, or direction of gravity, and it uses only indirect uncalibrated information about payload and actuator limits. Its average positioning accuracy across a large range of payloads after learning is 3% of the positioning range. This neural controller can be used as a basis for coordinating any number of sensory inputs with limbs of any number of joints. The feedforward nature of control allows parallel implementation in real time across multiple joints.

A comparison of several techniques for imputing tree level data

Treesearch

David Gartner

2002-01-01

As Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) changes from periodic surveys to the multipanel annual survey, new analytical methods become available. The current official statistic is the moving average. One alternative is an updated moving average. Several methods of updating plot per acre volume have been discussed previously. However, these methods may not be appropriate...

The Effect on Non-Normal Distributions on the Integrated Moving Average Model of Time-Series Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doerann-George, Judith

The Integrated Moving Average (IMA) model of time series, and the analysis of intervention effects based on it, assume random shocks which are normally distributed. To determine the robustness of the analysis to violations of this assumption, empirical sampling methods were employed. Samples were generated from three populations; normal,…

Relationship research between meteorological disasters and stock markets based on a multifractal detrending moving average algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qingchen; Cao, Guangxi; Xu, Wei

2018-01-01

Based on a multifractal detrending moving average algorithm (MFDMA), this study uses the fractionally autoregressive integrated moving average process (ARFIMA) to demonstrate the effectiveness of MFDMA in the detection of auto-correlation at different sample lengths and to simulate some artificial time series with the same length as the actual sample interval. We analyze the effect of predictable and unpredictable meteorological disasters on the US and Chinese stock markets and the degree of long memory in different sectors. Furthermore, we conduct a preliminary investigation to determine whether the fluctuations of financial markets caused by meteorological disasters are derived from the normal evolution of the financial system itself or not. We also propose several reasonable recommendations.

[Establishing and applying of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict the incidence rate of dysentery in Shanghai].

PubMed

Li, Jian; Wu, Huan-Yu; Li, Yan-Ting; Jin, Hui-Ming; Gu, Bao-Ke; Yuan, Zheng-An

2010-01-01

To explore the feasibility of establishing and applying of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the incidence rate of dysentery in Shanghai, so as to provide the theoretical basis for prevention and control of dysentery. ARIMA model was established based on the monthly incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai from 1990 to 2007. The parameters of model were estimated through unconditional least squares method, the structure was determined according to criteria of residual un-correlation and conclusion, and the model goodness-of-fit was determined through Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC). The constructed optimal model was applied to predict the incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai in 2008 and evaluate the validity of model through comparing the difference of predicted incidence rate and actual one. The incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 was predicted by ARIMA model based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009. The model ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)(12) had a good fitness to the incidence rate with both autoregressive coefficient (AR1 = 0.443) during the past time series, moving average coefficient (MA1 = 0.806) and seasonal moving average coefficient (SMA1 = 0.543, SMA2 = 0.321) being statistically significant (P < 0.01). AIC and SBC were 2.878 and 16.131 respectively and predicting error was white noise. The mathematic function was (1-0.443B) (1-B) (1-B(12))Z(t) = (1-0.806B) (1-0.543B(12)) (1-0.321B(2) x 12) micro(t). The predicted incidence rate in 2008 was consistent with the actual one, with the relative error of 6.78%. The predicted incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009 would be 9.390 per 100 thousand. ARIMA model can be used to fit the changes of incidence rate of dysentery and to forecast the future incidence rate in Shanghai. It is a predicted model of high precision for short-time forecast.

Generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models for count data with application to malaria time series with low case numbers.

PubMed

Briët, Olivier J T; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-01-01

With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions' impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during "consolidation" and "pre-elimination" phases. Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years. The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series. G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low.

Generalized Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models for Count Data with Application to Malaria Time Series with Low Case Numbers

PubMed Central

Briët, Olivier J. T.; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H.; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-01-01

Introduction With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions’ impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during “consolidation” and “pre-elimination” phases. Methods Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years. Results The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series. Conclusions G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low. PMID:23785448

Finite-Dimensional Representations for Controlled Diffusions with Delay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Federico, Salvatore, E-mail: salvatore.federico@unimi.it; Tankov, Peter, E-mail: tankov@math.univ-paris-diderot.fr

2015-02-15

We study stochastic delay differential equations (SDDE) where the coefficients depend on the moving averages of the state process. As a first contribution, we provide sufficient conditions under which the solution of the SDDE and a linear path functional of it admit a finite-dimensional Markovian representation. As a second contribution, we show how approximate finite-dimensional Markovian representations may be constructed when these conditions are not satisfied, and provide an estimate of the error corresponding to these approximations. These results are applied to optimal control and optimal stopping problems for stochastic systems with delay.

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia: time domain characterization using autoregressive moving average analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Triedman, J. K.; Perrott, M. H.; Cohen, R. J.; Saul, J. P.

1995-01-01

Fourier-based techniques are mathematically noncausal and are therefore limited in their application to feedback-containing systems, such as the cardiovascular system. In this study, a mathematically causal time domain technique, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) analysis, was used to parameterize the relations of respiration and arterial blood pressure to heart rate in eight humans before and during total cardiac autonomic blockade. Impulse-response curves thus generated showed the relation of respiration to heart rate to be characterized by an immediate increase in heart rate of 9.1 +/- 1.8 beats.min-1.l-1, followed by a transient mild decrease in heart rate to -1.2 +/- 0.5 beats.min-1.l-1 below baseline. The relation of blood pressure to heart rate was characterized by a slower decrease in heart rate of -0.5 +/- 0.1 beats.min-1.mmHg-1, followed by a gradual return to baseline. Both of these relations nearly disappeared after autonomic blockade, indicating autonomic mediation. Maximum values obtained from the respiration to heart rate impulse responses were also well correlated with frequency domain measures of high-frequency "vagal" heart rate control (r = 0.88). ARMA analysis may be useful as a time domain representation of autonomic heart rate control for cardiovascular modeling.

Quantifying rapid changes in cardiovascular state with a moving ensemble average.

PubMed

Cieslak, Matthew; Ryan, William S; Babenko, Viktoriya; Erro, Hannah; Rathbun, Zoe M; Meiring, Wendy; Kelsey, Robert M; Blascovich, Jim; Grafton, Scott T

2018-04-01

MEAP, the moving ensemble analysis pipeline, is a new open-source tool designed to perform multisubject preprocessing and analysis of cardiovascular data, including electrocardiogram (ECG), impedance cardiogram (ICG), and continuous blood pressure (BP). In addition to traditional ensemble averaging, MEAP implements a moving ensemble averaging method that allows for the continuous estimation of indices related to cardiovascular state, including cardiac output, preejection period, heart rate variability, and total peripheral resistance, among others. Here, we define the moving ensemble technique mathematically, highlighting its differences from fixed-window ensemble averaging. We describe MEAP's interface and features for signal processing, artifact correction, and cardiovascular-based fMRI analysis. We demonstrate the accuracy of MEAP's novel B point detection algorithm on a large collection of hand-labeled ICG waveforms. As a proof of concept, two subjects completed a series of four physical and cognitive tasks (cold pressor, Valsalva maneuver, video game, random dot kinetogram) on 3 separate days while ECG, ICG, and BP were recorded. Critically, the moving ensemble method reliably captures the rapid cyclical cardiovascular changes related to the baroreflex during the Valsalva maneuver and the classic cold pressor response. Cardiovascular measures were seen to vary considerably within repetitions of the same cognitive task for each individual, suggesting that a carefully designed paradigm could be used to capture fast-acting event-related changes in cardiovascular state. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

The Performance of Multilevel Growth Curve Models under an Autoregressive Moving Average Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Daniel L.; Pituch, Keenan A.

2009-01-01

The authors examined the robustness of multilevel linear growth curve modeling to misspecification of an autoregressive moving average process. As previous research has shown (J. Ferron, R. Dailey, & Q. Yi, 2002; O. Kwok, S. G. West, & S. B. Green, 2007; S. Sivo, X. Fan, & L. Witta, 2005), estimates of the fixed effects were unbiased, and Type I…

Using Baidu Search Index to Predict Dengue Outbreak in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kangkang; Wang, Tao; Yang, Zhicong; Huang, Xiaodong; Milinovich, Gabriel J.; Lu, Yi; Jing, Qinlong; Xia, Yao; Zhao, Zhengyang; Yang, Yang; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao; Lu, Jiahai

2016-12-01

This study identified the possible threshold to predict dengue fever (DF) outbreaks using Baidu Search Index (BSI). Time-series classification and regression tree models based on BSI were used to develop a predictive model for DF outbreak in Guangzhou and Zhongshan, China. In the regression tree models, the mean autochthonous DF incidence rate increased approximately 30-fold in Guangzhou when the weekly BSI for DF at the lagged moving average of 1-3 weeks was more than 382. When the weekly BSI for DF at the lagged moving average of 1-5 weeks was more than 91.8, there was approximately 9-fold increase of the mean autochthonous DF incidence rate in Zhongshan. In the classification tree models, the results showed that when the weekly BSI for DF at the lagged moving average of 1-3 weeks was more than 99.3, there was 89.28% chance of DF outbreak in Guangzhou, while, in Zhongshan, when the weekly BSI for DF at the lagged moving average of 1-5 weeks was more than 68.1, the chance of DF outbreak rose up to 100%. The study indicated that less cost internet-based surveillance systems can be the valuable complement to traditional DF surveillance in China.

Comparison between wavelet transform and moving average as filter method of MODIS imagery to recognize paddy cropping pattern in West Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwi Nugroho, Kreshna; Pebrianto, Singgih; Arif Fatoni, Muhammad; Fatikhunnada, Alvin; Liyantono; Setiawan, Yudi

2017-01-01

Information on the area and spatial distribution of paddy field are needed to support sustainable agricultural and food security program. Mapping or distribution of cropping pattern paddy field is important to obtain sustainability paddy field area. It can be done by direct observation and remote sensing method. This paper discusses remote sensing for paddy field monitoring based on MODIS time series data. In time series MODIS data, difficult to direct classified of data, because of temporal noise. Therefore wavelet transform and moving average are needed as filter methods. The Objective of this study is to recognize paddy cropping pattern with wavelet transform and moving average in West Java using MODIS imagery (MOD13Q1) from 2001 to 2015 then compared between both of methods. The result showed the spatial distribution almost have the same cropping pattern. The accuracy of wavelet transform (75.5%) is higher than moving average (70.5%). Both methods showed that the majority of the cropping pattern in West Java have pattern paddy-fallow-paddy-fallow with various time planting. The difference of the planting schedule was occurs caused by the availability of irrigation water.

Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. Methods Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995–2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) “in-control” status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. Results The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag40 and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag40; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals which were in-control with respect to EWMA control limits and one-step prediction error limits (3SE). The expected series was modelled with a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive model. Conclusions The data generating process of monthly raw mortality series at the ICU level displayed autocorrelation, seasonality and volatility. False-positive signalling of the raw mortality series was evident with respect to RA-EWMA control limits. A time series approach using residual control charts resolved these issues. PMID:23705957

Capillary Electrophoresis Sensitivity Enhancement Based on Adaptive Moving Average Method.

PubMed

Drevinskas, Tomas; Telksnys, Laimutis; Maruška, Audrius; Gorbatsova, Jelena; Kaljurand, Mihkel

2018-06-05

In the present work, we demonstrate a novel approach to improve the sensitivity of the "out of lab" portable capillary electrophoretic measurements. Nowadays, many signal enhancement methods are (i) underused (nonoptimal), (ii) overused (distorts the data), or (iii) inapplicable in field-portable instrumentation because of a lack of computational power. The described innovative migration velocity-adaptive moving average method uses an optimal averaging window size and can be easily implemented with a microcontroller. The contactless conductivity detection was used as a model for the development of a signal processing method and the demonstration of its impact on the sensitivity. The frequency characteristics of the recorded electropherograms and peaks were clarified. Higher electrophoretic mobility analytes exhibit higher-frequency peaks, whereas lower electrophoretic mobility analytes exhibit lower-frequency peaks. On the basis of the obtained data, a migration velocity-adaptive moving average algorithm was created, adapted, and programmed into capillary electrophoresis data-processing software. Employing the developed algorithm, each data point is processed depending on a certain migration time of the analyte. Because of the implemented migration velocity-adaptive moving average method, the signal-to-noise ratio improved up to 11 times for sampling frequency of 4.6 Hz and up to 22 times for sampling frequency of 25 Hz. This paper could potentially be used as a methodological guideline for the development of new smoothing algorithms that require adaptive conditions in capillary electrophoresis and other separation methods.

An improved moving average technical trading rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papailias, Fotis; Thomakos, Dimitrios D.

2015-06-01

This paper proposes a modified version of the widely used price and moving average cross-over trading strategies. The suggested approach (presented in its 'long only' version) is a combination of cross-over 'buy' signals and a dynamic threshold value which acts as a dynamic trailing stop. The trading behaviour and performance from this modified strategy are different from the standard approach with results showing that, on average, the proposed modification increases the cumulative return and the Sharpe ratio of the investor while exhibiting smaller maximum drawdown and smaller drawdown duration than the standard strategy.

Modeling the effects of high-G stress on pilots in a tracking task

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korn, J.; Kleinman, D. L.

1978-01-01

Air-to-air tracking experiments were conducted at the Aerospace Medical Research Laboratories using both fixed and moving base dynamic environment simulators. The obtained data, which includes longitudinal error of a simulated air-to-air tracking task as well as other auxiliary variables, was analyzed using an ensemble averaging method. In conjunction with these experiments, the optimal control model is applied to model a human operator under high-G stress.

Experimental landscape reduction of wild rodents increases movements in the invasive brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, Michelle; Savidge, Julie A.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.; Gragg, James E.; Rodda, Gordon H.

2017-01-01

Experimental studies evaluating the effects of food availability on the movement of free-ranging animals generally involve food supplementation rather than suppression. Both approaches can yield similar insights, but we were interested in the potential for using food suppression for the management and control of invasive predators, in particular, the brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on Guam. However, understanding a species’ response to food resources is critical before employing such a strategy. We studied the movements of 24 radio-tagged B. irregularis initially caught within four 4-ha unfenced plots in rodent-abundant (control) and rodent-suppressed (treatment) grassland habitats over a 40-day period. Because monitoring duration differed among snakes, we also analyzed short-term (16-day) activity areas. Over the 16 days, snakes associated with rodent-suppressed plots had 86% larger activity areas (ha), 94% greater dispersal distances (m), and 43% greater movement rates (m/h) than snakes associated with control plots. Boiga irregularis moved extensively, but these movements were not always reflected in the size of the snake’s total activity area. Movement rates did not differ between sexes, but snakes in above-average body condition moved greater distances per hour than those in below-average condition irrespective of treatment. Our study indicates that a relatively small prey suppression effort can cause almost immediate and significant changes in B. irregularismovement. On Guam, prey suppression might enhance control efforts by either increasing trap capture success or discouraging snakes from entering areas of conservation or management concern. However, the outcome of using prey suppression as a control tool in areas threatened with the accidental introduction of the brown treesnake is more difficult to predict and might have negative consequences such as elevated dispersal rates.

SM91: Observations of interchange between acceleration and thermalization processes in auroral electrons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pongratz, M.

1972-01-01

Results from a Nike-Tomahawk sounding rocket flight launched from Fort Churchill are presented. The rocket was launched into a breakup aurora at magnetic local midnight on 21 March 1968. The rocket was instrumented to measure electrons with an electrostatic analyzer electron spectrometer which made 29 measurements in the energy interval 0.5 KeV to 30 KeV. Complete energy spectra were obtained at a rate of 10/sec. Pitch angle information is presented via 3 computed average per rocket spin. The dumped electron average corresponds to averages over electrons moving nearly parallel to the B vector. The mirroring electron average corresponds to averages over electrons moving nearly perpendicular to the B vector. The average was also computed over the entire downward hemisphere (the precipitated electron average). The observations were obtained in an altitude range of 10 km at 230 km altitude.

Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

2017-12-01

In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

Neural net forecasting for geomagnetic activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hernandez, J. V.; Tajima, T.; Horton, W.

1993-01-01

We use neural nets to construct nonlinear models to forecast the AL index given solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data. We follow two approaches: (1) the state space reconstruction approach, which is a nonlinear generalization of autoregressive-moving average models (ARMA) and (2) the nonlinear filter approach, which reduces to a moving average model (MA) in the linear limit. The database used here is that of Bargatze et al. (1985).

Queues with Choice via Delay Differential Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pender, Jamol; Rand, Richard H.; Wesson, Elizabeth

Delay or queue length information has the potential to influence the decision of a customer to join a queue. Thus, it is imperative for managers of queueing systems to understand how the information that they provide will affect the performance of the system. To this end, we construct and analyze two two-dimensional deterministic fluid models that incorporate customer choice behavior based on delayed queue length information. In the first fluid model, customers join each queue according to a Multinomial Logit Model, however, the queue length information the customer receives is delayed by a constant Δ. We show that the delay can cause oscillations or asynchronous behavior in the model based on the value of Δ. In the second model, customers receive information about the queue length through a moving average of the queue length. Although it has been shown empirically that giving patients moving average information causes oscillations and asynchronous behavior to occur in U.S. hospitals, we analytically and mathematically show for the first time that the moving average fluid model can exhibit oscillations and determine their dependence on the moving average window. Thus, our analysis provides new insight on how operators of service systems should report queue length information to customers and how delayed information can produce unwanted system dynamics.

Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

PubMed

Biswas, Paritosh K; Islam, Md Zohorul; Debnath, Nitish C; Yamage, Mat

2014-01-01

The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s) as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH) was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA) order at lag 1 month is considered.

GPC-Based Stable Reconfigurable Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soloway, Don; Shi, Jian-Jun; Kelkar, Atul

2004-01-01

This paper presents development of multi-input multi-output (MIMO) Generalized Pre-dictive Control (GPC) law and its application to reconfigurable control design in the event of actuator saturation. A Controlled Auto-Regressive Integrating Moving Average (CARIMA) model is used to describe the plant dynamics. The control law is derived using input-output description of the system and is also related to the state-space form of the model. The stability of the GPC control law without reconfiguration is first established using Riccati-based approach and state-space formulation. A novel reconfiguration strategy is developed for the systems which have actuator redundancy and are faced with actuator saturation type failure. An elegant reconfigurable control design is presented with stability proof. Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the application of various results.

Monitoring Poisson observations using combined applications of Shewhart and EWMA charts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abujiya, Mu'azu Ramat

2017-11-01

The Shewhart and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts for nonconformities are the most widely used procedures of choice for monitoring Poisson observations in modern industries. Individually, the Shewhart EWMA charts are only sensitive to large and small shifts, respectively. To enhance the detection abilities of the two schemes in monitoring all kinds of shifts in Poisson count data, this study examines the performance of combined applications of the Shewhart, and EWMA Poisson control charts. Furthermore, the study proposes modifications based on well-structured statistical data collection technique, ranked set sampling (RSS), to detect shifts in the mean of a Poisson process more quickly. The relative performance of the proposed Shewhart-EWMA Poisson location charts is evaluated in terms of the average run length (ARL), standard deviation of the run length (SDRL), median run length (MRL), average ratio ARL (ARARL), average extra quadratic loss (AEQL) and performance comparison index (PCI). Consequently, all the new Poisson control charts based on RSS method are generally more superior than most of the existing schemes for monitoring Poisson processes. The use of these combined Shewhart-EWMA Poisson charts is illustrated with an example to demonstrate the practical implementation of the design procedure.

MARD—A moving average rose diagram application for the geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munro, Mark A.; Blenkinsop, Thomas G.

2012-12-01

MARD 1.0 is a computer program for generating smoothed rose diagrams by using a moving average, which is designed for use across the wide range of disciplines encompassed within the Earth Sciences. Available in MATLAB®, Microsoft® Excel and GNU Octave formats, the program is fully compatible with both Microsoft® Windows and Macintosh operating systems. Each version has been implemented in a user-friendly way that requires no prior experience in programming with the software. MARD conducts a moving average smoothing, a form of signal processing low-pass filter, upon the raw circular data according to a set of pre-defined conditions selected by the user. This form of signal processing filter smoothes the angular dataset, emphasising significant circular trends whilst reducing background noise. Customisable parameters include whether the data is uni- or bi-directional, the angular range (or aperture) over which the data is averaged, and whether an unweighted or weighted moving average is to be applied. In addition to the uni- and bi-directional options, the MATLAB® and Octave versions also possess a function for plotting 2-dimensional dips/pitches in a single, lower, hemisphere. The rose diagrams from each version are exportable as one of a selection of common graphical formats. Frequently employed statistical measures that determine the vector mean, mean resultant (or length), circular standard deviation and circular variance are also included. MARD's scope is demonstrated via its application to a variety of datasets within the Earth Sciences.

Visualizing disease associations: graphic analysis of frequency distributions as a function of age using moving average plots (MAP) with application to Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Payami, Haydeh; Kay, Denise M; Zabetian, Cyrus P; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Factor, Stewart A; McCulloch, Colin C

2010-01-01

Age-related variation in marker frequency can be a confounder in association studies, leading to both false-positive and false-negative findings and subsequently to inconsistent reproducibility. We have developed a simple method, based on a novel extension of moving average plots (MAP), which allows investigators to inspect the frequency data for hidden age-related variations. MAP uses the standard case-control association data and generates a birds-eye view of the frequency distributions across the age spectrum; a picture in which one can see if, how, and when the marker frequencies in cases differ from that in controls. The marker can be specified as an allele, genotype, haplotype, or environmental factor; and age can be age-at-onset, age when subject was last known to be unaffected, or duration of exposure. Signature patterns that emerge can help distinguish true disease associations from spurious associations due to age effects, age-varying associations from associations that are uniform across all ages, and associations with risk from associations with age-at-onset. Utility of MAP is illustrated by application to genetic and epidemiological association data for Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease. MAP is intended as a descriptive method, to complement standard statistical techniques. Although originally developed for age patterns, MAP is equally useful for visualizing any quantitative trait.

Moving standard deviation and moving sum of outliers as quality tools for monitoring analytical precision.

PubMed

Liu, Jiakai; Tan, Chin Hon; Badrick, Tony; Loh, Tze Ping

2018-02-01

An increase in analytical imprecision (expressed as CV a ) can introduce additional variability (i.e. noise) to the patient results, which poses a challenge to the optimal management of patients. Relatively little work has been done to address the need for continuous monitoring of analytical imprecision. Through numerical simulations, we describe the use of moving standard deviation (movSD) and a recently described moving sum of outlier (movSO) patient results as means for detecting increased analytical imprecision, and compare their performances against internal quality control (QC) and the average of normal (AoN) approaches. The power of detecting an increase in CV a is suboptimal under routine internal QC procedures. The AoN technique almost always had the highest average number of patient results affected before error detection (ANPed), indicating that it had generally the worst capability for detecting an increased CV a . On the other hand, the movSD and movSO approaches were able to detect an increased CV a at significantly lower ANPed, particularly for measurands that displayed a relatively small ratio of biological variation to CV a. CONCLUSION: The movSD and movSO approaches are effective in detecting an increase in CV a for high-risk measurands with small biological variation. Their performance is relatively poor when the biological variation is large. However, the clinical risks of an increase in analytical imprecision is attenuated for these measurands as an increased analytical imprecision will only add marginally to the total variation and less likely to impact on the clinical care. Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Naive vs. Sophisticated Methods of Forecasting Public Library Circulations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, Terrence A.

1984-01-01

Two sophisticated--autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), straight-line regression--and two naive--simple average, monthly average--forecasting techniques were used to forecast monthly circulation totals of 34 public libraries. Comparisons of forecasts and actual totals revealed that ARIMA and monthly average methods had smallest mean…

Control of a 7-DOF Robotic Arm System With an SSVEP-Based BCI.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaogang; Zhao, Bing; Wang, Yijun; Xu, Shengpu; Gao, Xiaorong

2018-04-12

Although robot technology has been successfully used to empower people who suffer from motor disabilities to increase their interaction with their physical environment, it remains a challenge for individuals with severe motor impairment, who do not have the motor control ability to move robots or prosthetic devices by manual control. In this study, to mitigate this issue, a noninvasive brain-computer interface (BCI)-based robotic arm control system using gaze based steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP) was designed and implemented using a portable wireless electroencephalogram (EEG) system. A 15-target SSVEP-based BCI using a filter bank canonical correlation analysis (FBCCA) method allowed users to directly control the robotic arm without system calibration. The online results from 12 healthy subjects indicated that a command for the proposed brain-controlled robot system could be selected from 15 possible choices in 4[Formula: see text]s (i.e. 2[Formula: see text]s for visual stimulation and 2[Formula: see text]s for gaze shifting) with an average accuracy of 92.78%, resulting in a 15 commands/min transfer rate. Furthermore, all subjects (even naive users) were able to successfully complete the entire move-grasp-lift task without user training. These results demonstrated an SSVEP-based BCI could provide accurate and efficient high-level control of a robotic arm, showing the feasibility of a BCI-based robotic arm control system for hand-assistance.

Characteristics of typical non-road machinery emissions in China by using portable emission measurement system.

PubMed

Fu, Mingliang; Ge, Yunshan; Tan, Jianwei; Zeng, Tao; Liang, Bin

2012-10-15

Non-road machinery, especially construction equipment could be an important pollutant source of the deterioration in air quality in Chinese urban areas due to its large quantity and to the absence of stringent emission requirements. In this study, emission tests were performed on 12 excavators and 8 wheel loaders by using portable emission measurement system (PEMS) to determine their emission characteristics. The typical operating modes were categorized as idling mode, moving mode and working mode. Compared with those during idling and moving modes, the average time-based emission factors during working mode of HC were 2.61 and 1.27 times higher, NO(x) were 3.66 and 1.36 times higher, and PM were 4.05 and 1.95 times higher, respectively. Under all conditions, categories of the measured emissions increased with the rise in engine power. Compared with those of Stage I emission standard equipment, gaseous emissions and PM emitted from Stage II emission standard equipment were lower. The results indicated that, from Stage I to Stage II, the average reductions of HC, NO(x) and PM were 56%, 37% and 29% for the working mode, respectively. Those results also demonstrated the effectiveness of emission control regulation and the improvement of emission control technology. The data and tests show that the longer the accumulated working hours, the higher HC and NO(x) average fuel-based emission factors are. The emissions measured from the construction vehicles employed in this study were higher than the data collected in previous studies, which shows that it is critical for the government to put into effect more stringent emission regulations to further improve the air quality in Chinese urban areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Baseline repeated measures from controlled human exposure studies: associations between ambient air pollution exposure and the systemic inflammatory biomarkers IL-6 and fibrinogen.

PubMed

Thompson, Aaron M S; Zanobetti, Antonella; Silverman, Frances; Schwartz, Joel; Coull, Brent; Urch, Bruce; Speck, Mary; Brook, Jeffrey R; Manno, Michael; Gold, Diane R

2010-01-01

Systemic inflammation may be one of the mechanisms mediating the association between ambient air pollution and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and fibrinogen are biomarkers of systemic inflammation that are independent risk factors for cardio-vascular disease. We investigated the association between ambient air pollution and systemic inflammation using baseline measurements of IL-6 and fibrinogen from controlled human exposure studies. In this retrospective analysis we used repeated-measures data in 45 nonsmoking subjects. Hourly and daily moving averages were calculated for ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter

Iterative Procedures for Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the First-Order Gaussian Moving Average Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

1 = Q- 1 - 1 QlaaQ- 1.1 + a’Q-1a This is a simple case of a general formula called Woodbury’s formula by some authors; see, for example, Phadke and...1 2. The First-Order Moving Average Model ..... .................. 3. Some Approaches to the Iterative...the approximate likelihood function in some time series models. Useful suggestions have been the Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix and

Forecasting Instability Indicators in the Horn of Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

further than 2 (Makridakis, et al, 1983, 359). 2-32 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ( ARIMA ) Model . Similar to the ARMA model except for...stationary process. ARIMA models are described as ARIMA (p,d,q), where p is the order of the autoregressive process, d is the degree of the...differential process, and q is the order of the moving average process. The ARMA (1,1) model shown above is equivalent to an ARIMA (1,0,1) model . An ARIMA

Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones (1950-1999)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2001-01-01

Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for 'named storms,' tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin suggest that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity, marked by seasonal rates typically equal to or above respective long-term median rates. As an example, the 10-year moving average of the seasonal rates for named storms is now higher than for any previous year over the past 50 years, measuring 10.65 in 1994, or 2.65 units higher than its median rate of 8. Also, the 10-year moving average for tropical storms has more than doubled, from 2.15 in 1955 to 4.60 in 1992, with 16 of the past 20 years having a seasonal rate of three or more (the median rate). For hurricanes and major hurricanes, their respective 10-year moving averages turned upward, rising above long-term median rates (5.5 and 2, respectively) in 1992, a response to the abrupt increase in seasonal rates that occurred in 1995. Taken together, the outlook for future hurricane seasons is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above long-term median rates, especially during non-El Nino-related seasons. Only during El Nino-related seasons does it appear likely that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

Motile and non-motile sperm diagnostic manipulation using optoelectronic tweezers.

PubMed

Ohta, Aaron T; Garcia, Maurice; Valley, Justin K; Banie, Lia; Hsu, Hsan-Yin; Jamshidi, Arash; Neale, Steven L; Lue, Tom; Wu, Ming C

2010-12-07

Optoelectronic tweezers was used to manipulate human spermatozoa to determine whether their response to OET predicts sperm viability among non-motile sperm. We review the electro-physical basis for how live and dead human spermatozoa respond to OET. The maximal velocity that non-motile spermatozoa could be induced to move by attraction or repulsion to a moving OET field was measured. Viable sperm are attracted to OET fields and can be induced to move at an average maximal velocity of 8.8 ± 4.2 µm s(-1), while non-viable sperm are repelled to OET, and are induced to move at an average maximal velocity of -0.8 ± 1.0 µm s(-1). Manipulation of the sperm using OET does not appear to result in increased DNA fragmentation, making this a potential method by which to identify viable non-motile sperm for assisted reproductive technologies.

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-01-01

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-02-03

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

[A new kinematics method of determing elbow rotation axis and evaluation of its feasibility].

PubMed

Han, W; Song, J; Wang, G Z; Ding, H; Li, G S; Gong, M Q; Jiang, X Y; Wang, M Y

2016-04-18

To study a new positioning method of elbow external fixation rotation axis, and to evaluate its feasibility. Four normal adult volunteers and six Sawbone elbow models were brought into this experiment. The kinematic data of five elbow flexion were collected respectively by optical positioning system. The rotation axes of the elbow joints were fitted by the least square method. The kinematic data and fitting results were visually displayed. According to the fitting results, the average moving planes and rotation axes were calculated. Thus, the rotation axes of new kinematic methods were obtained. By using standard clinical methods, the entrance and exit points of rotation axes of six Sawbone elbow models were located under X-ray. And The kirschner wires were placed as the representatives of rotation axes using traditional positioning methods. Then, the entrance point deviation, the exit point deviation and the angle deviation of two kinds of located rotation axes were compared. As to the four volunteers, the indicators represented circular degree and coplanarity of elbow flexion movement trajectory of each volunteer were both about 1 mm. All the distance deviations of the moving axes to the average moving rotation axes of the five volunteers were less than 3 mm. All the angle deviations of the moving axes to the average moving rotation axes of the five volunteers were less than 5°. As to the six Sawbone models, the average entrance point deviations, the average exit point deviations and the average angle deviations of two different rotation axes determined by two kinds of located methods were respectively 1.697 2 mm, 1.838 3 mm and 1.321 7°. All the deviations were very small. They were all in an acceptable range of clinical practice. The values that represent circular degree and coplanarity of volunteer's elbow single curvature movement trajectory are very small. The result shows that the elbow single curvature movement can be regarded as the approximate fixed axis movement. The new method can replace the traditional method in accuracy. It can make up the deficiency of the traditional fixed axis method.

Successful technical trading agents using genetic programming.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Othling, Andrew S.; Kelly, John A.; Pryor, Richard J.

2004-10-01

Genetic programming (GP) has proved to be a highly versatile and useful tool for identifying relationships in data for which a more precise theoretical construct is unavailable. In this project, we use a GP search to develop trading strategies for agent based economic models. These strategies use stock prices and technical indicators, such as the moving average convergence/divergence and various exponentially weighted moving averages, to generate buy and sell signals. We analyze the effect of complexity constraints on the strategies as well as the relative performance of various indicators. We also present innovations in the classical genetic programming algorithm thatmore » appear to improve convergence for this problem. Technical strategies developed by our GP algorithm can be used to control the behavior of agents in economic simulation packages, such as ASPEN-D, adding variety to the current market fundamentals approach. The exploitation of arbitrage opportunities by technical analysts may help increase the efficiency of the simulated stock market, as it does in the real world. By improving the behavior of simulated stock markets, we can better estimate the effects of shocks to the economy due to terrorism or natural disasters.« less

Focus on Teacher Salaries: An Update on Average Salaries and Recent Legislative Actions in the SREB States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaines, Gale F.

Focused state efforts have helped teacher salaries in Southern Regional Education Board (SREB) states move toward the national average. Preliminary 2000-01 estimates put SREB's average teacher salary at its highest point in 22 years compared to the national average. The SREB average teacher salary is approximately 90 percent of the national…

Mechanistic approach to generalized technical analysis of share prices and stock market indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausloos, M.; Ivanova, K.

2002-05-01

Classical technical analysis methods of stock evolution are recalled, i.e. the notion of moving averages and momentum indicators. The moving averages lead to define death and gold crosses, resistance and support lines. Momentum indicators lead the price trend, thus give signals before the price trend turns over. The classical technical analysis investment strategy is thereby sketched. Next, we present a generalization of these tricks drawing on physical principles, i.e. taking into account not only the price of a stock but also the volume of transactions. The latter becomes a time dependent generalized mass. The notion of pressure, acceleration and force are deduced. A generalized (kinetic) energy is easily defined. It is understood that the momentum indicators take into account the sign of the fluctuations, while the energy is geared toward the absolute value of the fluctuations. They have different patterns which are checked by searching for the crossing points of their respective moving averages. The case of IBM evolution over 1990-2000 is used for illustrations.

Interactive Multiple Object Tracking (iMOT)

PubMed Central

Thornton, Ian M.; Bülthoff, Heinrich H.; Horowitz, Todd S.; Rynning, Aksel; Lee, Seong-Whan

2014-01-01

We introduce a new task for exploring the relationship between action and attention. In this interactive multiple object tracking (iMOT) task, implemented as an iPad app, participants were presented with a display of multiple, visually identical disks which moved independently. The task was to prevent any collisions during a fixed duration. Participants could perturb object trajectories via the touchscreen. In Experiment 1, we used a staircase procedure to measure the ability to control moving objects. Object speed was set to 1°/s. On average participants could control 8.4 items without collision. Individual control strategies were quite variable, but did not predict overall performance. In Experiment 2, we compared iMOT with standard MOT performance using identical displays. Object speed was set to 2°/s. Participants could reliably control more objects (M = 6.6) than they could track (M = 4.0), but performance in the two tasks was positively correlated. In Experiment 3, we used a dual-task design. Compared to single-task baseline, iMOT performance decreased and MOT performance increased when the two tasks had to be completed together. Overall, these findings suggest: 1) There is a clear limit to the number of items that can be simultaneously controlled, for a given speed and display density; 2) participants can control more items than they can track; 3) task-relevant action appears not to disrupt MOT performance in the current experimental context. PMID:24498288

The impact of using weight estimated from mammographic images vs. self-reported weight on breast cancer risk calculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, Kalyani P.; Harkness, Elaine F.; Gadde, Soujanye; Lim, Yit Y.; Maxwell, Anthony J.; Moschidis, Emmanouil; Foden, Philip; Cuzick, Jack; Brentnall, Adam; Evans, D. Gareth; Howell, Anthony; Astley, Susan M.

2017-03-01

Personalised breast screening requires assessment of individual risk of breast cancer, of which one contributory factor is weight. Self-reported weight has been used for this purpose, but may be unreliable. We explore the use of volume of fat in the breast, measured from digital mammograms. Volumetric breast density measurements were used to determine the volume of fat in the breasts of 40,431 women taking part in the Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study. Tyrer-Cuzick risk using self-reported weight was calculated for each woman. Weight was also estimated from the relationship between self-reported weight and breast fat volume in the cohort, and used to re-calculate Tyrer-Cuzick risk. Women were assigned to risk categories according to 10 year risk (below average <2%, average 2-3.49%, above average 3.5-4.99%, moderate 5-7.99%, high >=8%) and the original and re-calculated Tyrer-Cuzick risks were compared. Of the 716 women diagnosed with breast cancer during the study, 15 (2.1%) moved into a lower risk category, and 37 (5.2%) moved into a higher category when using weight estimated from breast fat volume. Of the 39,715 women without a cancer diagnosis, 1009 (2.5%) moved into a lower risk category, and 1721 (4.3%) into a higher risk category. The majority of changes were between below average and average risk categories (38.5% of those with a cancer diagnosis, and 34.6% of those without). No individual moved more than one risk group. Automated breast fat measures may provide a suitable alternative to self-reported weight for risk assessment in personalized screening.

Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

2009-04-01

Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

Heterodyne laser Doppler distance sensor with phase coding measuring stationary as well as laterally and axially moving objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, T.; Günther, P.; Nöthen, M.; Czarske, J.

2010-02-01

Both in production engineering and process control, multidirectional displacements, deformations and vibrations of moving or rotating components have to be measured dynamically, contactlessly and with high precision. Optical sensors would be predestined for this task, but their measurement rate is often fundamentally limited. Furthermore, almost all conventional sensors measure only one measurand, i.e. either out-of-plane or in-plane distance or velocity. To solve this problem, we present a novel phase coded heterodyne laser Doppler distance sensor (PH-LDDS), which is able to determine out-of-plane (axial) position and in-plane (lateral) velocity of rough solid-state objects simultaneously and independently with a single sensor. Due to the applied heterodyne technique, stationary or purely axially moving objects can also be measured. In addition, it is shown theoretically as well as experimentally that this sensor offers concurrently high temporal resolution and high position resolution since its position uncertainty is in principle independent of the lateral object velocity in contrast to conventional distance sensors. This is a unique feature of the PH-LDDS enabling precise and dynamic position and shape measurements also of fast moving objects. With an optimized sensor setup, an average position resolution of 240 nm was obtained.

Dynamics of actin-based movement by Rickettsia rickettsii in vero cells.

PubMed

Heinzen, R A; Grieshaber, S S; Van Kirk, L S; Devin, C J

1999-08-01

Actin-based motility (ABM) is a virulence mechanism exploited by invasive bacterial pathogens in the genera Listeria, Shigella, and Rickettsia. Due to experimental constraints imposed by the lack of genetic tools and their obligate intracellular nature, little is known about rickettsial ABM relative to Listeria and Shigella ABM systems. In this study, we directly compared the dynamics and behavior of ABM of Rickettsia rickettsii and Listeria monocytogenes. A time-lapse video of moving intracellular bacteria was obtained by laser-scanning confocal microscopy of infected Vero cells synthesizing beta-actin coupled to green fluorescent protein (GFP). Analysis of time-lapse images demonstrated that R. rickettsii organisms move through the cell cytoplasm at an average rate of 4.8 +/- 0.6 micrometer/min (mean +/- standard deviation). This speed was 2.5 times slower than that of L. monocytogenes, which moved at an average rate of 12.0 +/- 3.1 micrometers/min. Although rickettsiae moved more slowly, the actin filaments comprising the actin comet tail were significantly more stable, with an average half-life approximately three times that of L. monocytogenes (100.6 +/- 19.2 s versus 33.0 +/- 7.6 s, respectively). The actin tail associated with intracytoplasmic rickettsiae remained stationary in the cytoplasm as the organism moved forward. In contrast, actin tails of rickettsiae trapped within the nucleus displayed dramatic movements. The observed phenotypic differences between the ABM of Listeria and Rickettsia may indicate fundamental differences in the mechanisms of actin recruitment and polymerization.

Books average previous decade of economic misery.

PubMed

Bentley, R Alexander; Acerbi, Alberto; Ormerod, Paul; Lampos, Vasileios

2014-01-01

For the 20(th) century since the Depression, we find a strong correlation between a 'literary misery index' derived from English language books and a moving average of the previous decade of the annual U.S. economic misery index, which is the sum of inflation and unemployment rates. We find a peak in the goodness of fit at 11 years for the moving average. The fit between the two misery indices holds when using different techniques to measure the literary misery index, and this fit is significantly better than other possible correlations with different emotion indices. To check the robustness of the results, we also analysed books written in German language and obtained very similar correlations with the German economic misery index. The results suggest that millions of books published every year average the authors' shared economic experiences over the past decade.

Application of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model in forecasting the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Wuhan, China.

PubMed

Peng, Ying; Yu, Bin; Wang, Peng; Kong, De-Guang; Chen, Bang-Hua; Yang, Xiao-Bing

2017-12-01

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month (from January 2009 to December 2015) retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as (1,0,1)(0,1,1) 12 , with the largest coefficient of determination (R 2 =0.743) and lowest normalized BIC (BIC=3.645) value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations (P Box-Ljung (Q) =0.299). The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.

Up-down Asymmetries in Speed Perception

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Peter; Stone, Leland S.

1997-01-01

We compared speed matches for pairs of stimuli that moved in opposite directions (upward and downward). Stimuli were elliptical patches (2 deg horizontally by 1 deg vertically) of horizontal sinusoidal gratings of spatial. frequency 2 cycles/deg. Two sequential 380 msec reveal presentations were compared. One of each pair of gratings (the standard) moved at 4 Hz (2 deg/sec), the other (the test) moved at a rate determined by a simple up-down staircase. The point of subjectively equal speed was calculated from the average of the last eight reversals. The task was to fixate a central point and to determine which one of the pair appeared to move faster. Eight of 10 observers perceived the upward drifting grating as moving faster than a grating moving downward but otherwise identical. on average (N = 10), when the standard moved downward, it was matched by a test moving upward at 94.7+/-1.7(SE)% of the standard speed, and when the standard moved upward it was matched by a test moving downward at 105.1+/-2.3(SE)% of the standard speed. Extending this paradigm over a range of spatial (1.5 to 13.5 c/d) and temporal (1.5 to 13.5 Hz) frequencies, preliminary results (N = 4) suggest that, under the conditions of our experiment, upward matter is seen as faster than downward for speeds greater than approx.1 deg/sec, but the effect appears to reverse at speeds below approx.1 deg/sec with downward motion perceived as faster. Given that an up-down asymmetry has been observed for the optokinetic response, both perceptual and oculomotor contributions to this phenomenon deserve exploration.

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2016-01-01

This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed () and average lowest pressure (); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal () and west longitudinal () positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index (); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy (); (7) sum and average number of storm days (); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of several climatic factors, including the (1) oceanic Nino index (); (2) Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation () index; (3) Atlantic meridional mode () index; (4) global land-ocean temperature index (); and (5) quasi-biennial oscillation () index. Lastly, the associational aspects (using both linear and nonparametric statistical tests) between selected tropical cyclone parameters and the climatic factors are examined based on their 10-year moving average trend values.

Kinesin-microtubule interactions during gliding assays under magnetic force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallesen, Todd L.

Conventional kinesin is a motor protein capable of converting the chemical energy of ATP into mechanical work. In the cell, this is used to actively transport vesicles through the intracellular matrix. The relationship between the velocity of a single kinesin, as it works against an increasing opposing load, has been well studied. The relationship between the velocity of a cargo being moved by multiple kinesin motors against an opposing load has not been established. A major difficulty in determining the force-velocity relationship for multiple motors is determining the number of motors that are moving a cargo against an opposing load. Here I report on a novel method for detaching microtubules bound to a superparamagnetic bead from kinesin anchor points in an upside down gliding assay using a uniform magnetic field perpendicular to the direction of microtubule travel. The anchor points are presumably kinesin motors bound to the surface which microtubules are gliding over. Determining the distance between anchor points, d, allows the calculation of the average number of kinesins, n, that are moving a microtubule. It is possible to calculate the fraction of motors able to move microtubules as well, which is determined to be ˜ 5%. Using a uniform magnetic field parallel to the direction of microtubule travel, it is possible to impart a uniform magnetic field on a microtubule bound to a superparamagnetic bead. We are able to decrease the average velocity of microtubules driven by multiple kinesin motors moving against an opposing force. Using the average number of kinesins on a microtubule, we estimate that there are an average 2-7 kinesins acting against the opposing force. By fitting Gaussians to the smoothed distributions of microtubule velocities acting against an opposing force, multiple velocities are seen, presumably for n, n-1, n-2, etc motors acting together. When these velocities are scaled for the average number of motors on a microtubule, the force-velocity relationship for multiple motors follows the same trend as for one motor, supporting the hypothesis that multiple motors share the load.

Motion tracing system for ultrasound guided HIFU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Xu; Jiang, Tingyi; Corner, George; Huang, Zhihong

2017-03-01

One main limitation in HIFU treatment is the abdominal movement in liver and kidney caused by respiration. The study has set up a tracking model which mainly compromises of a target carrying box and a motion driving balloon. A real-time B-mode ultrasound guidance method suitable for tracking of the abdominal organ motion in 2D was established and tested. For the setup, the phantoms mimicking moving organs are carefully prepared with agar surrounding round-shaped egg-white as the target of focused ultrasound ablation. Physiological phantoms and animal tissues are driven moving reciprocally along the main axial direction of the ultrasound image probe with slightly motion perpendicular to the axial direction. The moving speed and range could be adjusted by controlling the inflation and deflation speed and amount of the balloon driven by a medical ventilator. A 6-DOF robotic arm was used to position the focused ultrasound transducer. The overall system was trying to estimate to simulate the actual movement caused by human respiration. HIFU ablation experiments using phantoms and animal organs were conducted to test the tracking effect. Ultrasound strain elastography was used to post estimate the efficiency of the tracking algorithms and system. In moving state, the axial size of the lesion (perpendicular to the movement direction) are averagely 4mm, which is one third larger than the lesion got when the target was not moving. This presents the possibility of developing a low-cost real-time method of tracking organ motion during HIFU treatment in liver or kidney.

Books Average Previous Decade of Economic Misery

PubMed Central

Bentley, R. Alexander; Acerbi, Alberto; Ormerod, Paul; Lampos, Vasileios

2014-01-01

For the 20th century since the Depression, we find a strong correlation between a ‘literary misery index’ derived from English language books and a moving average of the previous decade of the annual U.S. economic misery index, which is the sum of inflation and unemployment rates. We find a peak in the goodness of fit at 11 years for the moving average. The fit between the two misery indices holds when using different techniques to measure the literary misery index, and this fit is significantly better than other possible correlations with different emotion indices. To check the robustness of the results, we also analysed books written in German language and obtained very similar correlations with the German economic misery index. The results suggest that millions of books published every year average the authors' shared economic experiences over the past decade. PMID:24416159

Studies on the dynamic stability of an axially moving nanobeam based on the nonlocal strain gradient theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jing; Shen, Huoming; Zhang, Bo; Liu, Juan

2018-06-01

In this paper, we studied the parametric resonance issue of an axially moving viscoelastic nanobeam with varying velocity. Based on the nonlocal strain gradient theory, we established the transversal vibration equation of the axially moving nanobeam and the corresponding boundary condition. By applying the average method, we obtained a set of self-governing ordinary differential equations when the excitation frequency of the moving parameters is twice the intrinsic frequency or near the sum of certain second-order intrinsic frequencies. On the plane of parametric excitation frequency and excitation amplitude, we can obtain the instability region generated by the resonance, and through numerical simulation, we analyze the influence of the scale effect and system parameters on the instability region. The results indicate that the viscoelastic damping decreases the resonance instability region, and the average velocity and stiffness make the instability region move to the left- and right-hand sides. Meanwhile, the scale effect of the system is obvious. The nonlocal parameter exhibits not only the stiffness softening effect but also the damping weakening effect, while the material characteristic length parameter exhibits the stiffness hardening effect and damping reinforcement effect.

Time series modelling of increased soil temperature anomalies during long period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvani, Amin; Moradi, Farzad; Moosavi, Ali Akbar

2015-10-01

Soil temperature just beneath the soil surface is highly dynamic and has a direct impact on plant seed germination and is probably the most distinct and recognisable factor governing emergence. Autoregressive integrated moving average as a stochastic model was developed to predict the weekly soil temperature anomalies at 10 cm depth, one of the most important soil parameters. The weekly soil temperature anomalies for the periods of January1986-December 2011 and January 2012-December 2013 were taken into consideration to construct and test autoregressive integrated moving average models. The proposed model autoregressive integrated moving average (2,1,1) had a minimum value of Akaike information criterion and its estimated coefficients were different from zero at 5% significance level. The prediction of the weekly soil temperature anomalies during the test period using this proposed model indicated a high correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted data - that was 0.99 for lead time 1 week. Linear trend analysis indicated that the soil temperature anomalies warmed up significantly by 1.8°C during the period of 1986-2011.

Monthly streamflow forecasting with auto-regressive integrated moving average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, Najah; Samsudin, Ruhaidah; Shabri, Ani

2017-09-01

Forecasting of streamflow is one of the many ways that can contribute to better decision making for water resource management. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was selected in this research for monthly streamflow forecasting with enhancement made by pre-processing the data using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). This study also proposed an extension of the SSA technique to include a step where clustering was performed on the eigenvector pairs before reconstruction of the time series. The monthly streamflow data of Sungai Muda at Jeniang, Sungai Muda at Jambatan Syed Omar and Sungai Ketil at Kuala Pegang was gathered from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia. A ratio of 9:1 was used to divide the data into training and testing sets. The ARIMA, SSA-ARIMA and Clustered SSA-ARIMA models were all developed in R software. Results from the proposed model are then compared to a conventional auto-regressive integrated moving average model using the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error values. It was found that the proposed model can outperform the conventional model.

TERMA Framework for Biomedical Signal Analysis: An Economic-Inspired Approach.

PubMed

Elgendi, Mohamed

2016-11-02

Biomedical signals contain features that represent physiological events, and each of these events has peaks. The analysis of biomedical signals for monitoring or diagnosing diseases requires the detection of these peaks, making event detection a crucial step in biomedical signal processing. Many researchers have difficulty detecting these peaks to investigate, interpret and analyze their corresponding events. To date, there is no generic framework that captures these events in a robust, efficient and consistent manner. A new method referred to for the first time as two event-related moving averages ("TERMA") involves event-related moving averages and detects events in biomedical signals. The TERMA framework is flexible and universal and consists of six independent LEGO building bricks to achieve high accuracy detection of biomedical events. Results recommend that the window sizes for the two moving averages ( W 1 and W 2 ) have to follow the inequality ( 8 × W 1 ) ≥ W 2 ≥ ( 2 × W 1 ) . Moreover, TERMA is a simple yet efficient event detector that is suitable for wearable devices, point-of-care devices, fitness trackers and smart watches, compared to more complex machine learning solutions.

Statistical process control based chart for information systems security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Mansoor S.; Cui, Lirong

2015-07-01

Intrusion detection systems have a highly significant role in securing computer networks and information systems. To assure the reliability and quality of computer networks and information systems, it is highly desirable to develop techniques that detect intrusions into information systems. We put forward the concept of statistical process control (SPC) in computer networks and information systems intrusions. In this article we propose exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) type quality monitoring scheme. Our proposed scheme has only one parameter which differentiates it from the past versions. We construct the control limits for the proposed scheme and investigate their effectiveness. We provide an industrial example for the sake of clarity for practitioner. We give comparison of the proposed scheme with EWMA schemes and p chart; finally we provide some recommendations for the future work.

A strategy to decide whether to move the last case of the day in an operating room to another empty operating room to decrease overtime labor costs.

PubMed

Dexter, F

2000-10-01

We examined how to program an operating room (OR) information system to assist the OR manager in deciding whether to move the last case of the day in one OR to another OR that is empty to decrease overtime labor costs. We first developed a statistical strategy to predict whether moving the case would decrease overtime labor costs for first shift nurses and anesthesia providers. The strategy was based on using historical case duration data stored in a surgical services information system. Second, we estimated the incremental overtime labor costs achieved if our strategy was used for moving cases versus movement of cases by an OR manager who knew in advance exactly how long each case would last. We found that if our strategy was used to decide whether to move cases, then depending on parameter values, only 2.0 to 4.3 more min of overtime would be required per case than if the OR manager had perfect retrospective knowledge of case durations. The use of other information technologies to assist in the decision of whether to move a case, such as real-time patient tracking information systems, closed-circuit cameras, or graphical airport-style displays can, on average, reduce overtime by no more than only 2 to 4 min per case that can be moved. The use of other information technologies to assist in the decision of whether to move a case, such as real-time patient tracking information systems, closed-circuit cameras, or graphical airport-style displays, can, on average, reduce overtime by no more than only 2 to 4 min per case that can be moved.

Academic profile of students who transferred to Zagreb School of Medicine from other medical schools in Croatia.

PubMed

Dusek, Davorka; Dolovcak, Svjetlana; Kljaković-Gaspić, Marko

2004-02-01

To assess the academic performance of students who transferred to the Zagreb School of Medicine from other three medical schools in Croatia. Academic performance of medical students who moved from Rijeka, Osijek, or Split University Medical Schools to the Zagreb University School of Medicine at the second or third year was compared with academic performance of students enrolled at the Zagreb University School of Medicine. Using the Zagreb Medical School's registry, we made a list of 57 transfer students to Zagreb Medical School in the 1985-1994 period. Control group was formed of students enrolled at the Zagreb School of Medicine in the same period, whose names followed in alphabetical order after the names of transfer students. Students' performance was analyzed according to their grade average before transfer, grade average in the first year after transfer, total grade average after transfer, overall grade average, and duration of studies. We also analyzed the proportion of students in each group who did not pass the admission test at the Zagreb School of Medicine in the year before the enrollment in Zagreb, Osijek, Rijeka, and Split Medical Schools. Nineteen transfer students, transferred between 1985 and 1988, and their controls were excluded from the analysis because of incomplete data. Transfer students had significantly lower grade average before transfer (3.2-/+0.6 vs 3.5-/+0.7, p=0.03, Student t-test), lower grade average in the first year after transfer (3.2-/+0.6 vs 3.5-/+0.7, p=0.03), lower total grade average after transfer (3.6-/+0.5 vs 4.0-/+0.6, p<0.001), and lower overall grade average (3.5-/+0.5 vs 3.9-/+0.6, p<0.001) than control students. Median time to graduate for transfer students was 7 years (range, 5-9) and 6 years (range, 5-9) for control students (p=0.375, Mann-Whitney test). There were significantly more students among transfer students who did not pass the admission test at the Zagreb School of Medicine in the year before the final enrollment than their controls (15/38 vs 4/38, p=0.009, chi-square test). Transfer students had poorer academic performance than students who passed the admission test and were enrolled at the Zagreb School of Medicine from the first year of studies.

Peak Running Intensity of International Rugby: Implications for Training Prescription.

PubMed

Delaney, Jace A; Thornton, Heidi R; Pryor, John F; Stewart, Andrew M; Dascombe, Ben J; Duthie, Grant M

2017-09-01

To quantify the duration and position-specific peak running intensities of international rugby union for the prescription and monitoring of specific training methodologies. Global positioning systems (GPS) were used to assess the activity profile of 67 elite-level rugby union players from 2 nations across 33 international matches. A moving-average approach was used to identify the peak relative distance (m/min), average acceleration/deceleration (AveAcc; m/s 2 ), and average metabolic power (P met ) for a range of durations (1-10 min). Differences between positions and durations were described using a magnitude-based network. Peak running intensity increased as the length of the moving average decreased. There were likely small to moderate increases in relative distance and AveAcc for outside backs, halfbacks, and loose forwards compared with the tight 5 group across all moving-average durations (effect size [ES] = 0.27-1.00). P met demands were at least likely greater for outside backs and halfbacks than for the tight 5 (ES = 0.86-0.99). Halfbacks demonstrated the greatest relative distance and P met outputs but were similar to outside backs and loose forwards in AveAcc demands. The current study has presented a framework to describe the peak running intensities achieved during international rugby competition by position, which are considerably higher than previously reported whole-period averages. These data provide further knowledge of the peak activity profiles of international rugby competition, and this information can be used to assist coaches and practitioners in adequately preparing athletes for the most demanding periods of play.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest virus disease in the Gladstone region, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; McMichael, Anthony J; Dale, Pat; Tong, Shilu

2006-05-01

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (b=0.15, p-value<0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (b=-1.03, p-value=0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Neighborhood greenspace and health in a large urban center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kardan, Omid; Gozdyra, Peter; Misic, Bratislav; Moola, Faisal; Palmer, Lyle J.; Paus, Tomáš; Berman, Marc G.

2015-07-01

Studies have shown that natural environments can enhance health and here we build upon that work by examining the associations between comprehensive greenspace metrics and health. We focused on a large urban population center (Toronto, Canada) and related the two domains by combining high-resolution satellite imagery and individual tree data from Toronto with questionnaire-based self-reports of general health perception, cardio-metabolic conditions and mental illnesses from the Ontario Health Study. Results from multiple regressions and multivariate canonical correlation analyses suggest that people who live in neighborhoods with a higher density of trees on their streets report significantly higher health perception and significantly less cardio-metabolic conditions (controlling for socio-economic and demographic factors). We find that having 10 more trees in a city block, on average, improves health perception in ways comparable to an increase in annual personal income of $10,000 and moving to a neighborhood with $10,000 higher median income or being 7 years younger. We also find that having 11 more trees in a city block, on average, decreases cardio-metabolic conditions in ways comparable to an increase in annual personal income of $20,000 and moving to a neighborhood with $20,000 higher median income or being 1.4 years younger.

Computational problems in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agarwal, G. C.; Goodarzi, S. M.; Oneill, W. D.; Gottlieb, G. L.

1981-01-01

The choice of the sampling interval and the selection of the order of the model in time series analysis are considered. Band limited (up to 15 Hz) random torque perturbations are applied to the human ankle joint. The applied torque input, the angular rotation output, and the electromyographic activity using surface electrodes from the extensor and flexor muscles of the ankle joint are recorded. Autoregressive moving average models are developed. A parameter constraining technique is applied to develop more reliable models. The asymptotic behavior of the system must be taken into account during parameter optimization to develop predictive models.

Beyond long memory in heart rate variability: An approach based on fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leite, Argentina; Paula Rocha, Ana; Eduarda Silva, Maria

2013-06-01

Heart Rate Variability (HRV) series exhibit long memory and time-varying conditional variance. This work considers the Fractionally Integrated AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARFIMA) models with Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) errors. ARFIMA-GARCH models may be used to capture and remove long memory and estimate the conditional volatility in 24 h HRV recordings. The ARFIMA-GARCH approach is applied to fifteen long term HRV series available at Physionet, leading to the discrimination among normal individuals, heart failure patients, and patients with atrial fibrillation.

PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (PARMA) MODELING WITH APPLICATIONS TO WATER RESOURCES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

Results involving correlation properties and parameter estimation for autogressive-moving average models with periodic parameters are presented. A multivariate representation of the PARMA model is used to derive parameter space restrictions and difference equations for the periodic autocorrelations. Close approximation to the likelihood function for Gaussian PARMA processes results in efficient maximum-likelihood estimation procedures. Terms in the Fourier expansion of the parameters are sequentially included, and a selection criterion is given for determining the optimal number of harmonics to be included. Application of the techniques is demonstrated through analysis of a monthly streamflow time series.

A Spatial Correlation Model of Permeability on the Columbia River Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayne, R., Jr.; Pollyea, R. M.

2017-12-01

This study presents a spatial correlation model of regional scale permeability variability within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The data were compiled from the literature, and include 893 aquifer test results from 598 individual wells. In order to quantify the spatial variation of permeability within the CRBG, three experimental variograms (two horizontal and one vertical) are calculated and then fit with a linear combination of mathematical models. The horizontal variograms show there is a 4.5:1 anisotropy ratio for the permeability correlation structure with a long-range correlation of 35 km at N40°E. The km-scale range of these variograms suggests that there is regional control on permeability within the CRBG. One plausible control on the permeability distribution is that rapid crustal loading during CRBG emplacement ( 80% over 1M years) resulted in an isostatic response where the Columbia Plateau had previously undergone subsidence. To support this hypothesis, we calculate a 200 m moving average of all permeability values with depth. This calculation shows that permeability generally follows a systematic decay until 1,100 m depth, beyond which the 200 m moving average permeability increases 3 orders of magnitude. Since basalt fracture networks govern permeability on Columbia River Plateau, this observation is consistent with basal flexure causing tensile stress that counteract lithostatic loading, thus maintaining higher than expected permeability at depth within the Columbia River Basalt Group. These results may have important implications for regional CRBG groundwater management, as well as engineered reservoirs for carbon capture and sequestration and nuclear waste storage.

Application of a new hybrid model with seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) in forecasting incidence cases of HFMD in Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Yu, Lijing; Zhou, Lingling; Tan, Li; Jiang, Hongbo; Wang, Ying; Wei, Sheng; Nie, Shaofa

2014-01-01

Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported for many times in Asia during the last decades. This emerging disease has drawn worldwide attention and vigilance. Nowadays, the prevention and control of HFMD has become an imperative issue in China. Early detection and response will be helpful before it happening, using modern information technology during the epidemic. In this paper, a hybrid model combining seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (NARNN) is proposed to predict the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, using the retrospective observations obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2008 to November 2012. The best-fitted hybrid model was combined with seasonal ARIMA [Formula: see text] and NARNN with 15 hidden units and 5 delays. The hybrid model makes the good forecasting performance and estimates the expected incidence cases from December 2012 to May 2013, which are respectively -965.03, -1879.58, 4138.26, 1858.17, 4061.86 and 6163.16 with an obviously increasing trend. The model proposed in this paper can predict the incidence trend of HFMD effectively, which could be helpful to policy makers. The usefulness of expected cases of HFMD perform not only in detecting outbreaks or providing probability statements, but also in providing decision makers with a probable trend of the variability of future observations that contains both historical and recent information.

Implementation and application of moving average as continuous analytical quality control instrument demonstrated for 24 routine chemistry assays.

PubMed

Rossum, Huub H van; Kemperman, Hans

2017-07-26

General application of a moving average (MA) as continuous analytical quality control (QC) for routine chemistry assays has failed due to lack of a simple method that allows optimization of MAs. A new method was applied to optimize the MA for routine chemistry and was evaluated in daily practice as continuous analytical QC instrument. MA procedures were optimized using an MA bias detection simulation procedure. Optimization was graphically supported by bias detection curves. Next, all optimal MA procedures that contributed to the quality assurance were run for 100 consecutive days and MA alarms generated during working hours were investigated. Optimized MA procedures were applied for 24 chemistry assays. During this evaluation, 303,871 MA values and 76 MA alarms were generated. Of all alarms, 54 (71%) were generated during office hours. Of these, 41 were further investigated and were caused by ion selective electrode (ISE) failure (1), calibration failure not detected by QC due to improper QC settings (1), possible bias (significant difference with the other analyzer) (10), non-human materials analyzed (2), extreme result(s) of a single patient (2), pre-analytical error (1), no cause identified (20), and no conclusion possible (4). MA was implemented in daily practice as a continuous QC instrument for 24 routine chemistry assays. In our setup when an MA alarm required follow-up, a manageable number of MA alarms was generated that resulted in valuable MA alarms. For the management of MA alarms, several applications/requirements in the MA management software will simplify the use of MA procedures.

Comparison of tongue interface with keyboard for control of an assistive robotic arm.

PubMed

Struijk, Lotte N S Andreasen; Lontis, Romulus

2017-07-01

This paper demonstrates how an assistive 6 DoF robotic arm with a gripper can be controlled manually using a tongue interface. The proposed method suggests that it possible for a user to manipulate the surroundings with his or her tongue using the inductive tongue control system as deployed in this study. The sensors of an inductive tongue-computer interface were mapped to the Cartesian control of an assistive robotic arm. The resulting control system was tested manually in order to compare manual control of the robot using a standard keyboard and using the tongue interface. Two healthy subjects controlled the robotic arm to precisely move a bottle of water from one location to another. The results shows that the tongue interface was able to fully control the robotic arm in a similar manner as the standard keyboard resulting in the same number of successful manipulations and an average increase in task duration of up to 30% as compared with the standard keyboard.

Nonlinear time-series-based adaptive control applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohler, R. R.; Rajkumar, V.; Zakrzewski, R. R.

1991-01-01

A control design methodology based on a nonlinear time-series reference model is presented. It is indicated by highly nonlinear simulations that such designs successfully stabilize troublesome aircraft maneuvers undergoing large changes in angle of attack as well as large electric power transients due to line faults. In both applications, the nonlinear controller was significantly better than the corresponding linear adaptive controller. For the electric power network, a flexible AC transmission system with series capacitor power feedback control is studied. A bilinear autoregressive moving average reference model is identified from system data, and the feedback control is manipulated according to a desired reference state. The control is optimized according to a predictive one-step quadratic performance index. A similar algorithm is derived for control of rapid changes in aircraft angle of attack over a normally unstable flight regime. In the latter case, however, a generalization of a bilinear time-series model reference includes quadratic and cubic terms in angle of attack.

Neural control of finger movement via intracortical brain-machine interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irwin, Z. T.; Schroeder, K. E.; Vu, P. P.; Bullard, A. J.; Tat, D. M.; Nu, C. S.; Vaskov, A.; Nason, S. R.; Thompson, D. E.; Bentley, J. N.; Patil, P. G.; Chestek, C. A.

2017-12-01

Objective. Intracortical brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) are a promising source of prosthesis control signals for individuals with severe motor disabilities. Previous BMI studies have primarily focused on predicting and controlling whole-arm movements; precise control of hand kinematics, however, has not been fully demonstrated. Here, we investigate the continuous decoding of precise finger movements in rhesus macaques. Approach. In order to elicit precise and repeatable finger movements, we have developed a novel behavioral task paradigm which requires the subject to acquire virtual fingertip position targets. In the physical control condition, four rhesus macaques performed this task by moving all four fingers together in order to acquire a single target. This movement was equivalent to controlling the aperture of a power grasp. During this task performance, we recorded neural spikes from intracortical electrode arrays in primary motor cortex. Main results. Using a standard Kalman filter, we could reconstruct continuous finger movement offline with an average correlation of ρ  =  0.78 between actual and predicted position across four rhesus macaques. For two of the monkeys, this movement prediction was performed in real-time to enable direct brain control of the virtual hand. Compared to physical control, neural control performance was slightly degraded; however, the monkeys were still able to successfully perform the task with an average target acquisition rate of 83.1%. The monkeys’ ability to arbitrarily specify fingertip position was also quantified using an information throughput metric. During brain control task performance, the monkeys achieved an average 1.01 bits s-1 throughput, similar to that achieved in previous studies which decoded upper-arm movements to control computer cursors using a standard Kalman filter. Significance. This is, to our knowledge, the first demonstration of brain control of finger-level fine motor skills. We believe that these results represent an important step towards full and dexterous control of neural prosthetic devices.

Distractor Interference during Smooth Pursuit Eye Movements

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spering, Miriam; Gegenfurtner, Karl R.; Kerzel, Dirk

2006-01-01

When 2 targets for pursuit eye movements move in different directions, the eye velocity follows the vector average (S. G. Lisberger & V. P. Ferrera, 1997). The present study investigates the mechanisms of target selection when observers are instructed to follow a predefined horizontal target and to ignore a moving distractor stimulus. Results show…

Sound source identification and sound radiation modeling in a moving medium using the time-domain equivalent source method.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao-Zheng; Bi, Chuan-Xing; Zhang, Yong-Bin; Xu, Liang

2015-05-01

Planar near-field acoustic holography has been successfully extended to reconstruct the sound field in a moving medium, however, the reconstructed field still contains the convection effect that might lead to the wrong identification of sound sources. In order to accurately identify sound sources in a moving medium, a time-domain equivalent source method is developed. In the method, the real source is replaced by a series of time-domain equivalent sources whose strengths are solved iteratively by utilizing the measured pressure and the known convective time-domain Green's function, and time averaging is used to reduce the instability in the iterative solving process. Since these solved equivalent source strengths are independent of the convection effect, they can be used not only to identify sound sources but also to model sound radiations in both moving and static media. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the influence of noise on the solved equivalent source strengths and the effect of time averaging on reducing the instability, and to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method on the source identification and sound radiation modeling.

Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure and Respiratory, Cancer, and Cardiovascular Mortality in Older US Adults.

PubMed

Pun, Vivian C; Kazemiparkouhi, Fatemeh; Manjourides, Justin; Suh, Helen H

2017-10-15

The impact of chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5)) on respiratory disease and lung cancer mortality is poorly understood. In a cohort of 18.9 million Medicare beneficiaries (4.2 million deaths) living across the conterminous United States between 2000 and 2008, we examined the association between chronic PM2.5 exposure and cause-specific mortality. We evaluated confounding through adjustment for neighborhood behavioral covariates and decomposition of PM2.5 into 2 spatiotemporal scales. We found significantly positive associations of 12-month moving average PM2.5 exposures (per 10-μg/m3 increase) with respiratory, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia mortality, with risk ratios ranging from 1.10 to 1.24. We also found significant PM2.5-associated elevated risks for cardiovascular and lung cancer mortality. Risk ratios generally increased with longer moving averages; for example, an elevation in 60-month moving average PM2.5 exposures was linked to 1.33 times the lung cancer mortality risk (95% confidence interval: 1.24, 1.40), as compared with 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.15) for 12-month moving average exposures. Observed associations were robust in multivariable models, although evidence of unmeasured confounding remained. In this large cohort of US elderly, we provide important new evidence that long-term PM2.5 exposure is significantly related to increased mortality from respiratory disease, lung cancer, and cardiovascular disease. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reduction of time-averaged irradiation speckle nonuniformity in laser-driven plasmas due to target ablation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epstein, R.

1997-09-01

In inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments, irradiation uniformity is improved by passing laser beams through distributed phase plates (DPPs), which produce focused intensity profiles with well-controlled, reproducible envelopes modulated by fine random speckle. [C. B. Burckhardt, Appl. Opt. {bold 9}, 695 (1970); Y. Kato and K. Mima, Appl. Phys. B {bold 29}, 186 (1982); Y. Kato {ital et al.}, Phys. Rev. Lett. {bold 53}, 1057 (1984); Laboratory for Laser Energetics LLE Review 33, NTIS Document No. DOE/DP/40200-65, 1987 (unpublished), p. 1; Laboratory for Laser Energetics LLE Review 63, NTIS Document No. DOE/SF/19460-91, 1995 (unpublished), p. 1.] A uniformly ablating plasmamore » atmosphere acts to reduce the contribution of the speckle to the time-averaged irradiation nonuniformity by causing the intensity distribution to move relative to the absorption layer of the plasma. This occurs most directly as the absorption layer in the plasma moves with the ablation-driven flow, but it is shown that the effect of the accumulating ablated plasma on the phase of the laser light also makes a quantitatively significant contribution. Analytical results are obtained using the paraxial approximation applied to the beam propagation, and a simple statistical model is assumed for the properties of DPPs. The reduction in the time-averaged spatial spectrum of the speckle due to these effects is shown to be quantitatively significant within time intervals characteristic of atmospheric hydrodynamics under typical ICF irradiation intensities. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}« less

Dog days of summer: Influences on decision of wolves to move pups

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ausband, David E.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Bassing, Sarah B.; Nordhagen, Matthew; Smith, Douglas W.; Stahler, Daniel R.

2016-01-01

For animals that forage widely, protecting young from predation can span relatively long time periods due to the inability of young to travel with and be protected by their parents. Moving relatively immobile young to improve access to important resources, limit detection of concentrated scent by predators, and decrease infestations by ectoparasites can be advantageous. Moving young, however, can also expose them to increased mortality risks (e.g., accidents, getting lost, predation). For group-living animals that live in variable environments and care for young over extended time periods, the influence of biotic factors (e.g., group size, predation risk) and abiotic factors (e.g., temperature and precipitation) on the decision to move young is unknown. We used data from 25 satellite-collared wolves ( Canis lupus ) in Idaho, Montana, and Yellowstone National Park to evaluate how these factors could influence the decision to move pups during the pup-rearing season. We hypothesized that litter size, the number of adults in a group, and perceived predation risk would positively affect the number of times gray wolves moved pups. We further hypothesized that wolves would move their pups more often when it was hot and dry to ensure sufficient access to water. Contrary to our hypothesis, monthly temperature above the 30-year average was negatively related to the number of times wolves moved their pups. Monthly precipitation above the 30-year average, however, was positively related to the amount of time wolves spent at pup-rearing sites after leaving the natal den. We found little relationship between risk of predation (by grizzly bears, humans, or conspecifics) or group and litter sizes and number of times wolves moved their pups. Our findings suggest that abiotic factors most strongly influence the decision of wolves to move pups, although responses to unpredictable biotic events (e.g., a predator encountering pups) cannot be ruled out.

Foraging Distance of the Argentine Ant in California Vineyards.

PubMed

Hogg, Brian N; Nelson, Erik H; Hagler, James R; Daane, Kent M

2018-04-02

Argentine ants, Linepithema humile (Mayr) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), form mutualisms with hemipteran pests in crop systems. In vineyards, they feed on honeydew produced by mealybugs and soft scales, which they tend and protect from natural enemies. Few options for controlling Argentine ants are available; one of the more effective approaches is to use liquid baits containing a low dose of an insecticide. Knowledge of ant foraging patterns is required to estimate how many bait stations to deploy per unit area. To measure how far ants move liquid bait in vineyards, we placed bait stations containing sugar water and a protein marker in plots for 6 d, and then collected ants along transects extending away from bait stations. The ants moved an average of 16.08 m and 12.21 m from bait stations in the first and second years of the study, respectively. Marked ants were found up to 63 m from bait stations; however, proportions of marked ants decreased exponentially as distance from the bait station increased. Results indicate that Argentine ants generally forage at distances <36 m in California vineyards, thus suggesting that insecticide bait stations must be deployed at intervals of 36 m or less to control ants. We found no effect of insecticide on distances that ants moved the liquid bait, but this may have been because bait station densities were too low to affect the high numbers of Argentine ants that were present at the study sites.

Preliminary Retrospective Analysis of Daily Tomotherapy Output Constancy Checks Using Statistical Process Control.

PubMed

Mezzenga, Emilio; D'Errico, Vincenzo; Sarnelli, Anna; Strigari, Lidia; Menghi, Enrico; Marcocci, Francesco; Bianchini, David; Benassi, Marcello

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the results from a Helical TomoTherapy Hi-Art treatment system relating to quality controls based on daily static and dynamic output checks using statistical process control methods. Individual value X-charts, exponentially weighted moving average charts, and process capability and acceptability indices were used to monitor the treatment system performance. Daily output values measured from January 2014 to January 2015 were considered. The results obtained showed that, although the process was in control, there was an out-of-control situation in the principal maintenance intervention for the treatment system. In particular, process capability indices showed a decreasing percentage of points in control which was, however, acceptable according to AAPM TG148 guidelines. Our findings underline the importance of restricting the acceptable range of daily output checks and suggest a future line of investigation for a detailed process control of daily output checks for the Helical TomoTherapy Hi-Art treatment system.

Percentiles of the run-length distribution of the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) median chart

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, K. L.; Chong, Z. L.; Khoo, M. B. C.; Teoh, W. L.; Teh, S. Y.

2017-09-01

Quality control is crucial in a wide variety of fields, as it can help to satisfy customers’ needs and requirements by enhancing and improving the products and services to a superior quality level. The EWMA median chart was proposed as a useful alternative to the EWMA \\bar{X} chart because the median-type chart is robust against contamination, outliers or small deviation from the normality assumption compared to the traditional \\bar{X}-type chart. To provide a complete understanding of the run-length distribution, the percentiles of the run-length distribution should be investigated rather than depending solely on the average run length (ARL) performance measure. This is because interpretation depending on the ARL alone can be misleading, as the process mean shifts change according to the skewness and shape of the run-length distribution, varying from almost symmetric when the magnitude of the mean shift is large, to highly right-skewed when the process is in-control (IC) or slightly out-of-control (OOC). Before computing the percentiles of the run-length distribution, optimal parameters of the EWMA median chart will be obtained by minimizing the OOC ARL, while retaining the IC ARL at a desired value.

Control of humanoid robot via motion-onset visual evoked potentials

PubMed Central

Li, Wei; Li, Mengfan; Zhao, Jing

2015-01-01

This paper investigates controlling humanoid robot behavior via motion-onset specific N200 potentials. In this study, N200 potentials are induced by moving a blue bar through robot images intuitively representing robot behaviors to be controlled with mind. We present the individual impact of each subject on N200 potentials and discuss how to deal with individuality to obtain a high accuracy. The study results document the off-line average accuracy of 93% for hitting targets across over five subjects, so we use this major component of the motion-onset visual evoked potential (mVEP) to code people's mental activities and to perform two types of on-line operation tasks: navigating a humanoid robot in an office environment with an obstacle and picking-up an object. We discuss the factors that affect the on-line control success rate and the total time for completing an on-line operation task. PMID:25620918

Verification of out-of-control situations detected by "average of normal" approach.

PubMed

Liu, Jiakai; Tan, Chin Hon; Loh, Tze Ping; Badrick, Tony

2016-11-01

"Average of normal" (AoN) or "moving average" is increasingly used as an adjunct quality control tool in laboratory practice. Little guidance exists on how to verify if an out-of-control situation in the AoN chart is due to a shift in analytical performance, or underlying patient characteristics. Through simulation based on clinical data, we examined 1) the location of the last apparently stable period in the AoN control chart after an analytical shift, and 2) an approach to verify if the observed shift is related to an analytical shift by repeat testing of archived patient samples from the stable period for 21 common analytes. The number of blocks of results to look back for the stable period increased with the duration of the analytical shift, and was larger when smaller AoN block sizes were used. To verify an analytical shift, 3 archived samples from the analytically stable period should be retested. In particular, the process is deemed to have shifted if a difference of >2 analytical standard deviations (i.e. 1:2s rejection rule) between the original and retested results are observed in any of the 3 samples produced. The probability of Type-1 error (i.e., false rejection) and power (i.e., detecting true analytical shift) of this rule are <0.1 and >0.9, respectively. The use of appropriately archived patient samples to verify an apparent analytical shift is preferred to quality control materials. Nonetheless, the above findings may also apply to quality control materials, barring matrix effects. Copyright © 2016 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using a traffic simulation model (VISSIM) with an emissions model (MOVES) to predict emissions from vehicles on a limited-access highway.

PubMed

Abou-Senna, Hatem; Radwan, Essam; Westerlund, Kurt; Cooper, C David

2013-07-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that baseline global GHG emissions may increase 25-90% from 2000 to 2030, with carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions growing 40-110% over the same period. On-road vehicles are a major source of CO2 emissions in all the developed countries, and in many of the developing countries in the world. Similarly, several criteria air pollutants are associated with transportation, for example, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and particulate matter (PM). Therefore, the need to accurately quantify transportation-related emissions from vehicles is essential. The new US. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mobile source emissions model, MOVES2010a (MOVES), can estimate vehicle emissions on a second-by-second basis, creating the opportunity to combine a microscopic traffic simulation model (such as VISSIM) with MOVES to obtain accurate results. This paper presents an examination of four different approaches to capture the environmental impacts of vehicular operations on a 10-mile stretch of Interstate 4 (I-4), an urban limited-access highway in Orlando, FL. First (at the most basic level), emissions were estimated for the entire 10-mile section "by hand" using one average traffic volume and average speed. Then three advanced levels of detail were studied using VISSIM/MOVES to analyze smaller links: average speeds and volumes (AVG), second-by-second link drive schedules (LDS), and second-by-second operating mode distributions (OPMODE). This paper analyzes how the various approaches affect predicted emissions of CO, NO(x), PM2.5, PM10, and CO2. The results demonstrate that obtaining precise and comprehensive operating mode distributions on a second-by-second basis provides more accurate emission estimates. Specifically, emission rates are highly sensitive to stop-and-go traffic and the associated driving cycles of acceleration, deceleration, and idling. Using the AVG or LDS approach may overestimate or underestimate emissions, respectively, compared to an operating mode distribution approach. Transportation agencies and researchers in the past have estimated emissions using one average speed and volume on a long stretch of roadway. With MOVES, there is an opportunity for higher precision and accuracy. Integrating a microscopic traffic simulation model (such as VISSIM) with MOVES allows one to obtain precise and accurate emissions estimates. The proposed emission rate estimation process also can be extended to gridded emissions for ozone modeling, or to localized air quality dispersion modeling, where temporal and spatial resolution of emissions is essential to predict the concentration of pollutants near roadways.

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

PubMed Central

Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

PubMed

Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

Optimal design and experimental analyses of a new micro-vibration control payload-platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaoqing; Yang, Bintang; Zhao, Long; Sun, Xiaofen

2016-07-01

This paper presents a new payload-platform, for precision devices, which possesses the capability of isolating the complex space micro-vibration in low frequency range below 5 Hz. The novel payload-platform equipped with smart material actuators is investigated and designed through optimization strategy based on the minimum energy loss rate, for the aim of achieving high drive efficiency and reducing the effect of the magnetic circuit nonlinearity. Then, the dynamic model of the driving element is established by using the Lagrange method and the performance of the designed payload-platform is further discussed through the combination of the controlled auto regressive moving average (CARMA) model with modified generalized prediction control (MGPC) algorithm. Finally, an experimental prototype is developed and tested. The experimental results demonstrate that the payload-platform has an impressive potential of micro-vibration isolation.

Distributed parameter system coupled ARMA expansion identification and adaptive parallel IIR filtering - A unified problem statement. [Auto Regressive Moving-Average

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, C. R., Jr.; Balas, M. J.

1980-01-01

A novel interconnection of distributed parameter system (DPS) identification and adaptive filtering is presented, which culminates in a common statement of coupled autoregressive, moving-average expansion or parallel infinite impulse response configuration adaptive parameterization. The common restricted complexity filter objectives are seen as similar to the reduced-order requirements of the DPS expansion description. The interconnection presents the possibility of an exchange of problem formulations and solution approaches not yet easily addressed in the common finite dimensional lumped-parameter system context. It is concluded that the shared problems raised are nevertheless many and difficult.

Maximum likelihood estimation for periodic autoregressive moving average models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

A useful class of models for seasonal time series that cannot be filtered or standardized to achieve second-order stationarity is that of periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models, which are extensions of ARMA models that allow periodic (seasonal) parameters. An approximation to the exact likelihood for Gaussian PARMA processes is developed, and a straightforward algorithm for its maximization is presented. The algorithm is tested on several periodic ARMA(1, 1) models through simulation studies and is compared to moment estimation via the seasonal Yule-Walker equations. Applicability of the technique is demonstrated through an analysis of a seasonal stream-flow series from the Rio Caroni River in Venezuela.

Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

2018-04-01

The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

A fixed-memory moving, expanding window for obtaining scatter corrections in X-ray CT and other stochastic averages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, Zachary H.; Pintar, Adam L.

2015-11-01

A simple algorithm for averaging a stochastic sequence of 1D arrays in a moving, expanding window is provided. The samples are grouped in bins which increase exponentially in size so that a constant fraction of the samples is retained at any point in the sequence. The algorithm is shown to have particular relevance for a class of Monte Carlo sampling problems which includes one characteristic of iterative reconstruction in computed tomography. The code is available in the CPC program library in both Fortran 95 and C and is also available in R through CRAN.

Detrending moving average algorithm for multifractals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-07-01

The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is a widely used technique to quantify the long-term correlations of nonstationary time series and the long-range correlations of fractal surfaces, which contains a parameter θ determining the position of the detrending window. We develop multifractal detrending moving average (MFDMA) algorithms for the analysis of one-dimensional multifractal measures and higher-dimensional multifractals, which is a generalization of the DMA method. The performance of the one-dimensional and two-dimensional MFDMA methods is investigated using synthetic multifractal measures with analytical solutions for backward (θ=0) , centered (θ=0.5) , and forward (θ=1) detrending windows. We find that the estimated multifractal scaling exponent τ(q) and the singularity spectrum f(α) are in good agreement with the theoretical values. In addition, the backward MFDMA method has the best performance, which provides the most accurate estimates of the scaling exponents with lowest error bars, while the centered MFDMA method has the worse performance. It is found that the backward MFDMA algorithm also outperforms the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. The one-dimensional backward MFDMA method is applied to analyzing the time series of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and its multifractal nature is confirmed.

[Comparison of predictive effect between the single auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the ARIMA-generalized regression neural network (GRNN) combination model on the incidence of scarlet fever].

PubMed

Zhu, Yu; Xia, Jie-lai; Wang, Jing

2009-09-01

Application of the 'single auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model' and the 'ARIMA-generalized regression neural network (GRNN) combination model' in the research of the incidence of scarlet fever. Establish the auto regressive integrated moving average model based on the data of the monthly incidence on scarlet fever of one city, from 2000 to 2006. The fitting values of the ARIMA model was used as input of the GRNN, and the actual values were used as output of the GRNN. After training the GRNN, the effect of the single ARIMA model and the ARIMA-GRNN combination model was then compared. The mean error rate (MER) of the single ARIMA model and the ARIMA-GRNN combination model were 31.6%, 28.7% respectively and the determination coefficient (R(2)) of the two models were 0.801, 0.872 respectively. The fitting efficacy of the ARIMA-GRNN combination model was better than the single ARIMA, which had practical value in the research on time series data such as the incidence of scarlet fever.

An Optimization of Inventory Demand Forecasting in University Healthcare Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bon, A. T.; Ng, T. K.

2017-01-01

Healthcare industry becomes an important field for human beings nowadays as it concerns about one’s health. With that, forecasting demand for health services is an important step in managerial decision making for all healthcare organizations. Hence, a case study was conducted in University Health Centre to collect historical demand data of Panadol 650mg for 68 months from January 2009 until August 2014. The aim of the research is to optimize the overall inventory demand through forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting or time series forecasting model was used in the case study to forecast future data as a function of past data. Furthermore, the data pattern needs to be identified first before applying the forecasting techniques. Trend is the data pattern and then ten forecasting techniques are applied using Risk Simulator Software. Lastly, the best forecasting techniques will be find out with the least forecasting error. Among the ten forecasting techniques include single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double moving average, double exponential smoothing, regression, Holt-Winter’s additive, Seasonal additive, Holt-Winter’s multiplicative, seasonal multiplicative and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). According to the forecasting accuracy measurement, the best forecasting technique is regression analysis.

TERMA Framework for Biomedical Signal Analysis: An Economic-Inspired Approach

PubMed Central

Elgendi, Mohamed

2016-01-01

Biomedical signals contain features that represent physiological events, and each of these events has peaks. The analysis of biomedical signals for monitoring or diagnosing diseases requires the detection of these peaks, making event detection a crucial step in biomedical signal processing. Many researchers have difficulty detecting these peaks to investigate, interpret and analyze their corresponding events. To date, there is no generic framework that captures these events in a robust, efficient and consistent manner. A new method referred to for the first time as two event-related moving averages (“TERMA”) involves event-related moving averages and detects events in biomedical signals. The TERMA framework is flexible and universal and consists of six independent LEGO building bricks to achieve high accuracy detection of biomedical events. Results recommend that the window sizes for the two moving averages (W1 and W2) have to follow the inequality (8×W1)≥W2≥(2×W1). Moreover, TERMA is a simple yet efficient event detector that is suitable for wearable devices, point-of-care devices, fitness trackers and smart watches, compared to more complex machine learning solutions. PMID:27827852

Heterogeneous CPU-GPU moving targets detection for UAV video

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Maowen; Tang, Linbo; Han, Yuqi; Yu, Chunlei; Zhang, Chao; Fu, Huiquan

2017-07-01

Moving targets detection is gaining popularity in civilian and military applications. On some monitoring platform of motion detection, some low-resolution stationary cameras are replaced by moving HD camera based on UAVs. The pixels of moving targets in the HD Video taken by UAV are always in a minority, and the background of the frame is usually moving because of the motion of UAVs. The high computational cost of the algorithm prevents running it at higher resolutions the pixels of frame. Hence, to solve the problem of moving targets detection based UAVs video, we propose a heterogeneous CPU-GPU moving target detection algorithm for UAV video. More specifically, we use background registration to eliminate the impact of the moving background and frame difference to detect small moving targets. In order to achieve the effect of real-time processing, we design the solution of heterogeneous CPU-GPU framework for our method. The experimental results show that our method can detect the main moving targets from the HD video taken by UAV, and the average process time is 52.16ms per frame which is fast enough to solve the problem.

Industrial Based Migration in India. A Case Study of Dumdum "Dunlop Industrial Zone"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Biplab; Bandyopadhyay, Aditya; Sen, Jayashree

2012-10-01

Migration is a very important part in our present society. Basically Millions of people moved during the industrial revolution. Some simply moved from a village to a town in the hope of finding work whilst others moved from one country to another in search of a better way of life. The main reason for moving home during the 19th century was to find work. On one hand this involved migration from the countryside to the growing industrial cities, on the other it involved rates of migration, emigration, and the social changes that were drastically affecting factors such as marriage,birth and death rates. These social changes taking place as a result of capitalism had far ranging affects, such as lowering the average age of marriage and increasing the size of the average family.Migration was not just people moving out of the country, it also invloved a lot of people moving into Britain. In the 1840's Ireland suffered a terrible famine. Faced with a massive cost of feeding the starving population many local landowners paid for labourers to emigrate.There was a shift away from agriculturally based rural dwelling towards urban habitation to meet the mass demand for labour that new industry required. There became great regional differences in population levels and in the structure of their demography. This was due to rates of migration, emigration, and the social changes that were drastically affecting factors such as marriage, birth and death rates. These social changes taking place as a result of capitalism had far ranging affects, such as lowering the average age of marriage and increasing the size of the average family. There is n serious disagreement as to the extent of the population changes that occurred but one key question that always arouses debate is that of whether an expanding population resulted in economic growth or vice versa, i.e. was industrialization a catalyst for population growth? A clear answer is difficult to decipher as the two variables are so closely and fundamentally interlinked, but it seems that both factors provided impetus for each otherís take off. If anything, population and economic growth were complimentary towards one another rather than simply being causative factors.

The Lateral Tracking Control for the Intelligent Vehicle Based on Adaptive PID Neural Network.

PubMed

Han, Gaining; Fu, Weiping; Wang, Wen; Wu, Zongsheng

2017-05-30

The intelligent vehicle is a complicated nonlinear system, and the design of a path tracking controller is one of the key technologies in intelligent vehicle research. This paper mainly designs a lateral control dynamic model of the intelligent vehicle, which is used for lateral tracking control. Firstly, the vehicle dynamics model (i.e., transfer function) is established according to the vehicle parameters. Secondly, according to the vehicle steering control system and the CARMA (Controlled Auto-Regression and Moving-Average) model, a second-order control system model is built. Using forgetting factor recursive least square estimation (FFRLS), the system parameters are identified. Finally, a neural network PID (Proportion Integral Derivative) controller is established for lateral path tracking control based on the vehicle model and the steering system model. Experimental simulation results show that the proposed model and algorithm have the high real-time and robustness in path tracing control. This provides a certain theoretical basis for intelligent vehicle autonomous navigation tracking control, and lays the foundation for the vertical and lateral coupling control.

The Lateral Tracking Control for the Intelligent Vehicle Based on Adaptive PID Neural Network

PubMed Central

Han, Gaining; Fu, Weiping; Wang, Wen; Wu, Zongsheng

2017-01-01

The intelligent vehicle is a complicated nonlinear system, and the design of a path tracking controller is one of the key technologies in intelligent vehicle research. This paper mainly designs a lateral control dynamic model of the intelligent vehicle, which is used for lateral tracking control. Firstly, the vehicle dynamics model (i.e., transfer function) is established according to the vehicle parameters. Secondly, according to the vehicle steering control system and the CARMA (Controlled Auto-Regression and Moving-Average) model, a second-order control system model is built. Using forgetting factor recursive least square estimation (FFRLS), the system parameters are identified. Finally, a neural network PID (Proportion Integral Derivative) controller is established for lateral path tracking control based on the vehicle model and the steering system model. Experimental simulation results show that the proposed model and algorithm have the high real-time and robustness in path tracing control. This provides a certain theoretical basis for intelligent vehicle autonomous navigation tracking control, and lays the foundation for the vertical and lateral coupling control. PMID:28556817

SU-F-T-497: Spatiotemporally Optimal, Personalized Prescription Scheme for Glioblastoma Patients Using the Proliferation and Invasion Glioma Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, M; Rockhill, J; Phillips, M

Purpose: To investigate a spatiotemporally optimal radiotherapy prescription scheme and its potential benefit for glioblastoma (GBM) patients using the proliferation and invasion (PI) glioma model. Methods: Standard prescription for GBM was assumed to deliver 46Gy in 23 fractions to GTV1+2cm margin and additional 14Gy in 7 fractions to GTV2+2cm margin. We simulated the tumor proliferation and invasion in 2D according to the PI glioma model with a moving velocity of 0.029(slow-move), 0.079(average-move), and 0.13(fast-move) mm/day for GTV2 with a radius of 1 and 2cm. For each tumor, the margin around GTV1 and GTV2 was varied to 0–6 cm and 1–3more » cm respectively. Total dose to GTV1 was constrained such that the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) to normal brain equals EUD with the standard prescription. A non-stationary dose policy, where the fractional dose varies, was investigated to estimate the temporal effect of the radiation dose. The efficacy of an optimal prescription scheme was evaluated by tumor cell-surviving fraction (SF), EUD, and the expected survival time. Results: Optimal prescription for the slow-move tumors was to use 3.0(small)-3.5(large) cm margins to GTV1, and 1.5cm margin to GTV2. For the average- and fast-move tumors, it was optimal to use 6.0cm margin for GTV1 suggesting that whole brain therapy is optimal, and then 1.5cm (average-move) and 1.5–3.0cm (fast-move, small-large) margins for GTV2. It was optimal to deliver the boost sequentially using a linearly decreasing fractional dose for all tumors. Optimal prescription led to 0.001–0.465% of the tumor SF resulted from using the standard prescription, and increased tumor EUD by 25.3–49.3% and the estimated survival time by 7.6–22.2 months. Conclusion: It is feasible to optimize a prescription scheme depending on the individual tumor characteristics. A personalized prescription scheme could potentially increase tumor EUD and the expected survival time significantly without increasing EUD to normal brain.« less

Feedback control of arm movements using Neuro-Muscular Electrical Stimulation (NMES) combined with a lockable, passive exoskeleton for gravity compensation

PubMed Central

Klauer, Christian; Schauer, Thomas; Reichenfelser, Werner; Karner, Jakob; Zwicker, Sven; Gandolla, Marta; Ambrosini, Emilia; Ferrante, Simona; Hack, Marco; Jedlitschka, Andreas; Duschau-Wicke, Alexander; Gföhler, Margit; Pedrocchi, Alessandra

2014-01-01

Within the European project MUNDUS, an assistive framework was developed for the support of arm and hand functions during daily life activities in severely impaired people. This contribution aims at designing a feedback control system for Neuro-Muscular Electrical Stimulation (NMES) to enable reaching functions in people with no residual voluntary control of the arm and shoulder due to high level spinal cord injury. NMES is applied to the deltoids and the biceps muscles and integrated with a three degrees of freedom (DoFs) passive exoskeleton, which partially compensates gravitational forces and allows to lock each DOF. The user is able to choose the target hand position and to trigger actions using an eyetracker system. The target position is selected by using the eyetracker and determined by a marker-based tracking system using Microsoft Kinect. A central controller, i.e., a finite state machine, issues a sequence of basic movement commands to the real-time arm controller. The NMES control algorithm sequentially controls each joint angle while locking the other DoFs. Daily activities, such as drinking, brushing hair, pushing an alarm button, etc., can be supported by the system. The robust and easily tunable control approach was evaluated with five healthy subjects during a drinking task. Subjects were asked to remain passive and to allow NMES to induce the movements. In all of them, the controller was able to perform the task, and a mean hand positioning error of less than five centimeters was achieved. The average total time duration for moving the hand from a rest position to a drinking cup, for moving the cup to the mouth and back, and for finally returning the arm to the rest position was 71 s. PMID:25228853

Feedback control of arm movements using Neuro-Muscular Electrical Stimulation (NMES) combined with a lockable, passive exoskeleton for gravity compensation.

PubMed

Klauer, Christian; Schauer, Thomas; Reichenfelser, Werner; Karner, Jakob; Zwicker, Sven; Gandolla, Marta; Ambrosini, Emilia; Ferrante, Simona; Hack, Marco; Jedlitschka, Andreas; Duschau-Wicke, Alexander; Gföhler, Margit; Pedrocchi, Alessandra

2014-01-01

Within the European project MUNDUS, an assistive framework was developed for the support of arm and hand functions during daily life activities in severely impaired people. This contribution aims at designing a feedback control system for Neuro-Muscular Electrical Stimulation (NMES) to enable reaching functions in people with no residual voluntary control of the arm and shoulder due to high level spinal cord injury. NMES is applied to the deltoids and the biceps muscles and integrated with a three degrees of freedom (DoFs) passive exoskeleton, which partially compensates gravitational forces and allows to lock each DOF. The user is able to choose the target hand position and to trigger actions using an eyetracker system. The target position is selected by using the eyetracker and determined by a marker-based tracking system using Microsoft Kinect. A central controller, i.e., a finite state machine, issues a sequence of basic movement commands to the real-time arm controller. The NMES control algorithm sequentially controls each joint angle while locking the other DoFs. Daily activities, such as drinking, brushing hair, pushing an alarm button, etc., can be supported by the system. The robust and easily tunable control approach was evaluated with five healthy subjects during a drinking task. Subjects were asked to remain passive and to allow NMES to induce the movements. In all of them, the controller was able to perform the task, and a mean hand positioning error of less than five centimeters was achieved. The average total time duration for moving the hand from a rest position to a drinking cup, for moving the cup to the mouth and back, and for finally returning the arm to the rest position was 71 s.

Coordinated control of micro-grid based on distributed moving horizon control.

PubMed

Ma, Miaomiao; Shao, Liyang; Liu, Xiangjie

2018-05-01

This paper proposed the distributed moving horizon coordinated control scheme for the power balance and economic dispatch problems of micro-grid based on distributed generation. We design the power coordinated controller for each subsystem via moving horizon control by minimizing a suitable objective function. The objective function of distributed moving horizon coordinated controller is chosen based on the principle that wind power subsystem has the priority to generate electricity while photovoltaic power generation coordinates with wind power subsystem and the battery is only activated to meet the load demand when necessary. The simulation results illustrate that the proposed distributed moving horizon coordinated controller can allocate the output power of two generation subsystems reasonably under varying environment conditions, which not only can satisfy the load demand but also limit excessive fluctuations of output power to protect the power generation equipment. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landslide kinematics and their potential controls from hourly to decadal timescales: Insights from integrating ground-based InSAR measurements with structural maps and long-term monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schulz, William; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Ricci, P.P; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Shurtleff, Brett L; Panosky, J

2017-01-01

Knowledge of kinematics is rudimentary for understanding landslide controls and is increasingly valuable with greater spatiotemporal coverage. However, characterizing landslide-wide kinematics is rare, especially at broadly ranging timescales. We used highly detailed kinematic data obtained using photogrammetry and field mapping during the 1980s and 1990s and our 4.3-day ground-based InSAR survey during 2010 to study kinematics of the large, persistently moving Slumgullion landslide. The landslide was segregated into 11 kinematic elements using the 1980s–1990s data and the InSAR survey revealed most of these elements within a few hours. Averages of InSAR-derived displacement point measures within each element agreed well with higher quality in situ observations; averaging was deemed necessary because adverse look angles for the radar coupled with tree cover on the landslide introduced error in the InSAR results. We found that the landslide moved during 2010 at about half its 1985–1990 speed, but slowing was most pronounced at the landslide head. Gradually decreased precipitation and increased temperature between the periods likely resulted in lower groundwater levels and consequent slowing of the landslide. We used GPS survey results and limit-equilibrium modeling to analyze changing stability of the landslide head from observed thinning and found that its stability increased between the two periods, which would result in its slowing, and the consequent slowing of the entire landslide. Additionally, InSAR results suggested movement of kinematic element boundaries in the head region and our field mapping verified that they moved and changed character, likely because of the long-term increasing head stability. On an hourly basis, InSAR results were near error bounds but suggested landslide acceleration in response to seemingly negligible rainfall. Pore-pressure diffusion modeling suggested that rainfall infiltration affected frictional strength only to shallow depths along the landslide's marginal faults, highlighting their importance in controlling landslide stability. Hourly results also suggested that motion propagated along the 3.9-km length of the active landslide, even following sub-millimeter displacements, while strengthening of landslide shear boundaries during faster movement was likely critical in regulating the landslide's motion. Hence, detailed kinematic characterizations obtained from traditional and emerging approaches helped to reveal that mechanisms controlling landslide movement and evolution over decades also are critical to sub-millimeter movement on a nearly continuous basis.

Landslide kinematics and their potential controls from hourly to decadal timescales: Insights from integrating ground-based InSAR measurements with structural maps and long-term monitoring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, William H.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Ricci, Pier P.; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Shurtleff, Brett L.; Panosky, Joanna

2017-05-01

Knowledge of kinematics is rudimentary for understanding landslide controls and is increasingly valuable with greater spatiotemporal coverage. However, characterizing landslide-wide kinematics is rare, especially at broadly ranging timescales. We used highly detailed kinematic data obtained using photogrammetry and field mapping during the 1980s and 1990s and our 4.3-day ground-based InSAR survey during 2010 to study kinematics of the large, persistently moving Slumgullion landslide. The landslide was segregated into 11 kinematic elements using the 1980s-1990s data and the InSAR survey revealed most of these elements within a few hours. Averages of InSAR-derived displacement point measures within each element agreed well with higher quality in situ observations; averaging was deemed necessary because adverse look angles for the radar coupled with tree cover on the landslide introduced error in the InSAR results. We found that the landslide moved during 2010 at about half its 1985-1990 speed, but slowing was most pronounced at the landslide head. Gradually decreased precipitation and increased temperature between the periods likely resulted in lower groundwater levels and consequent slowing of the landslide. We used GPS survey results and limit-equilibrium modeling to analyze changing stability of the landslide head from observed thinning and found that its stability increased between the two periods, which would result in its slowing, and the consequent slowing of the entire landslide. Additionally, InSAR results suggested movement of kinematic element boundaries in the head region and our field mapping verified that they moved and changed character, likely because of the long-term increasing head stability. On an hourly basis, InSAR results were near error bounds but suggested landslide acceleration in response to seemingly negligible rainfall. Pore-pressure diffusion modeling suggested that rainfall infiltration affected frictional strength only to shallow depths along the landslide's marginal faults, highlighting their importance in controlling landslide stability. Hourly results also suggested that motion propagated along the 3.9-km length of the active landslide, even following sub-millimeter displacements, while strengthening of landslide shear boundaries during faster movement was likely critical in regulating the landslide's motion. Hence, detailed kinematic characterizations obtained from traditional and emerging approaches helped to reveal that mechanisms controlling landslide movement and evolution over decades also are critical to sub-millimeter movement on a nearly continuous basis.

Retention time and flow patterns in Lake Marion, South Carolina, 1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patterson, G.G.; Harvey, R.M.

1995-01-01

In 1984, six dye tracer tests were made on Lake Marion to determine flow patterns and retention times under conditions of high and low flow. During the high-flow tests, with an average inflow of about 29,000 cubic feet per second, the approximate travel time through the lake for the peak tracer concentration was 14 days. The retention time was about 20 days. During the low-flow tests, with an average inflow of about 9,000 cubic feet per second, the approximate travel time was 41 days, and the retention time was about 60 days. The primary factors controlling movement of water in the lake are lake inflow and outflow. The tracer cloud moved consistently downstream, slowing as the lake widened. Flow patterns in most of the coves, and in some areas along the northeastern shore, are influenced more by tributary inflow than by factors attributable to water from the main body of the lake.

The sensitivity in the IR spectrum of the intact and pathological tissues by laser biophotometry.

PubMed

Ravariu, Cristian; Bondarciuc, Ala

2014-03-01

In this paper, we use the laser biophotometry for in vivo investigations, searching the most sensitive interactions of the near-infrared spectrum with different tissues. The experimental methods are based on the average reflection coefficient (ARC) measurements. For healthy persons, ARC is the average of five values provided by the biophotometer. The probe is applied on dry skin with minimum pilosity, in five regions: left-right shank, left-right forearm, and epigastrium. For the pathological tissues, the emitting terminal is moved over the suspected area, controlling the reflection coefficient level, till a minimum value occurs, as ARC-Pathological. Then, the probe is moved on the symmetrical healthy region of the body to read the complementary coefficient from intact tissue, ARC-Intact, from the same patient. The experimental results show an ARC range between 67 and 59 mW for intact tissues and a lower range, up to 58-42 mW, for pathological tissues. The method is efficient only in those pathological processes accompanied by variable skin depigmentation, water retention, inflammation, thrombosis, or swelling. Frequently, the ARC ranges are overlapping for some diseases. This induces uncertain diagnosis. Therefore, a statistical algorithm is adopted for a differential diagnosis. The laser biophotometry provides a quantitative biometric parameter, ARC, suitable for fast diagnosis in the internal and emergency medicine. These laser biophotometry measurements are representatives for the Romanian clinical trials.

Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; McMichael, Anthony J.; Dale, Pat; Tong, Shilu

2006-01-01

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention. PMID:16675420

[Model of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and its application in prediction of the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Changsha].

PubMed

Tan, Ting; Chen, Lizhang; Liu, Fuqiang

2014-11-01

To establish multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) according to the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Changsha, and to explore the feasibility of the multiple seasonal ARIMA in predicting the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence. EVIEWS 6.0 was used to establish multiple seasonal ARIMA according to the hand-foot- mouth disease incidence from May 2008 to August 2013 in Changsha, and the data of the hand- foot-mouth disease incidence from September 2013 to February 2014 were served as the examined samples of the multiple seasonal ARIMA, then the errors were compared between the forecasted incidence and the real value. Finally, the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease from March 2014 to August 2014 was predicted by the model. After the data sequence was handled by smooth sequence, model identification and model diagnosis, the multiple seasonal ARIMA (1, 0, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 was established. The R2 value of the model fitting degree was 0.81, the root mean square prediction error was 8.29 and the mean absolute error was 5.83. The multiple seasonal ARIMA is a good prediction model, and the fitting degree is good. It can provide reference for the prevention and control work in hand-foot-mouth disease.

Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China

PubMed Central

Liang, Hao; Gao, Lian; Liang, Bingyu; Huang, Jiegang; Zang, Ning; Liao, Yanyan; Yu, Jun; Lai, Jingzhen; Qin, Fengxiang; Su, Jinming; Ye, Li; Chen, Hui

2016-01-01

Background Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease. Methods The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models. Results The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models. Conclusions The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County. PMID:27258555

Gesture Based Control and EMG Decomposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Kevin R.; Chang, Mindy H.; Knuth, Kevin H.

2005-01-01

This paper presents two probabilistic developments for use with Electromyograms (EMG). First described is a new-electric interface for virtual device control based on gesture recognition. The second development is a Bayesian method for decomposing EMG into individual motor unit action potentials. This more complex technique will then allow for higher resolution in separating muscle groups for gesture recognition. All examples presented rely upon sampling EMG data from a subject's forearm. The gesture based recognition uses pattern recognition software that has been trained to identify gestures from among a given set of gestures. The pattern recognition software consists of hidden Markov models which are used to recognize the gestures as they are being performed in real-time from moving averages of EMG. Two experiments were conducted to examine the feasibility of this interface technology. The first replicated a virtual joystick interface, and the second replicated a keyboard. Moving averages of EMG do not provide easy distinction between fine muscle groups. To better distinguish between different fine motor skill muscle groups we present a Bayesian algorithm to separate surface EMG into representative motor unit action potentials. The algorithm is based upon differential Variable Component Analysis (dVCA) [l], [2] which was originally developed for Electroencephalograms. The algorithm uses a simple forward model representing a mixture of motor unit action potentials as seen across multiple channels. The parameters of this model are iteratively optimized for each component. Results are presented on both synthetic and experimental EMG data. The synthetic case has additive white noise and is compared with known components. The experimental EMG data was obtained using a custom linear electrode array designed for this study.

Carbon-ion scanning lung treatment planning with respiratory-gated phase-controlled rescanning: simulation study using 4-dimensional CT data.

PubMed

Takahashi, Wataru; Mori, Shinichiro; Nakajima, Mio; Yamamoto, Naoyoshi; Inaniwa, Taku; Furukawa, Takuji; Shirai, Toshiyuki; Noda, Koji; Nakagawa, Keiichi; Kamada, Tadashi

2014-11-11

To moving lung tumors, we applied a respiratory-gated strategy to carbon-ion pencil beam scanning with multiple phase-controlled rescanning (PCR). In this simulation study, we quantitatively evaluated dose distributions based on 4-dimensional CT (4DCT) treatment planning. Volumetric 4DCTs were acquired for 14 patients with lung tumors. Gross tumor volume, clinical target volume (CTV) and organs at risk (OARs) were delineated. Field-specific target volumes (FTVs) were calculated, and 48Gy(RBE) in a single fraction was prescribed to the FTVs delivered from four beam angles. The dose assessment metrics were quantified by changing the number of PCR and the results for the ungated and gated scenarios were then compared. For the ungated strategy, the mean dose delivered to 95% of the volume of the CTV (CTV-D95) was in average 45.3 ± 0.9 Gy(RBE) even with a single rescanning (1 × PCR). Using 4 × PCR or more achieved adequate target coverage (CTV-D95 = 46.6 ± 0.3 Gy(RBE) for ungated 4 × PCR) and excellent dose homogeneity (homogeneity index =1.0 ± 0.2% for ungated 4 × PCR). Applying respiratory gating, percentage of lung receiving at least 20 Gy(RBE) (lung-V20) and heart maximal dose, averaged over all patients, significantly decreased by 12% (p < 0.05) and 13% (p < 0.05), respectively. Four or more PCR during PBS-CIRT improved dose conformation to moving lung tumors without gating. The use of a respiratory-gated strategy in combination with PCR reduced excessive doses to OARs.

[Motion control of moving mirror based on fixed-mirror adjustment in FTIR spectrometer].

PubMed

Li, Zhong-bing; Xu, Xian-ze; Le, Yi; Xu, Feng-qiu; Li, Jun-wei

2012-08-01

The performance of the uniform motion of the moving mirror, which is the only constant motion part in FTIR spectrometer, and the performance of the alignment of the fixed mirror play a key role in FTIR spectrometer, and affect the interference effect and the quality of the spectrogram and may restrict the precision and resolution of the instrument directly. The present article focuses on the research on the uniform motion of the moving mirror and the alignment of the fixed mirror. In order to improve the FTIR spectrometer, the maglev support system was designed for the moving mirror and the phase detection technology was adopted to adjust the tilt angle between the moving mirror and the fixed mirror. This paper also introduces an improved fuzzy PID control algorithm to get the accurate speed of the moving mirror and realize the control strategy from both hardware design and algorithm. The results show that the development of the moving mirror motion control system gets sufficient accuracy and real-time, which can ensure the uniform motion of the moving mirror and the alignment of the fixed mirror.

Time Series ARIMA Models of Undergraduate Grade Point Average.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Bruce G.

The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models, often referred to as Box-Jenkins models, are regression methods for analyzing sequential dependent observations with large amounts of data. The Box-Jenkins approach, a three-stage procedure consisting of identification, estimation and diagnosis, was used to select the most appropriate…

Are Math Grades Cyclical?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Gerald J.; Dial, Micah

1998-01-01

The cyclical nature of mathematics grades was studied for a cohort of elementary school students from a large metropolitan school district in Texas over six years (average cohort size of 8495). The study used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Results indicate that grades do exhibit a significant cyclical pattern. (SLD)

Evidence of redshifts in the average solar line profiles of C IV and Si IV from OSO-8 observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roussel-Dupre, D.; Shine, R. A.

1982-01-01

Line profiles of C IV and Si V obtained by the Colorado spectrometer on OSO-8 are presented. It is shown that the mean profiles are redshifted with a magnitude varying from 6-20 km/s, and with a mean of 12 km/s. An apparent average downflow of material in the 50,000-100,000 K temperature range is measured. The redshifts are observed in the line center positions of spatially and temporally averaged profiles and are measured either relative to chromospheric Si I lines or from a comparison of sun center and limb profiles. The observations of 6-20 km/s redshifts place constraints on the mechanisms that dominate EUV line emission since it requires a strong weighting of the emission in regions of downward moving material, and since there is little evidence for corresponding upward moving materials in these lines.

Nonlinear Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Control for Energy Distribution of a Fuel Cell Powered Robot

PubMed Central

Chen, Qihong; Long, Rong; Quan, Shuhai

2014-01-01

This paper presents a neural network predictive control strategy to optimize power distribution for a fuel cell/ultracapacitor hybrid power system of a robot. We model the nonlinear power system by employing time variant auto-regressive moving average with exogenous (ARMAX), and using recurrent neural network to represent the complicated coefficients of the ARMAX model. Because the dynamic of the system is viewed as operating- state- dependent time varying local linear behavior in this frame, a linear constrained model predictive control algorithm is developed to optimize the power splitting between the fuel cell and ultracapacitor. The proposed algorithm significantly simplifies implementation of the controller and can handle multiple constraints, such as limiting substantial fluctuation of fuel cell current. Experiment and simulation results demonstrate that the control strategy can optimally split power between the fuel cell and ultracapacitor, limit the change rate of the fuel cell current, and so as to extend the lifetime of the fuel cell. PMID:24707206

A New Trend-Following Indicator: Using SSA to Design Trading Rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leles, Michel Carlo Rodrigues; Mozelli, Leonardo Amaral; Guimarães, Homero Nogueira

Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a non-parametric approach that can be used to decompose a time-series as trends, oscillations and noise. Trend-following strategies rely on the principle that financial markets move in trends for an extended period of time. Moving Averages (MAs) are the standard indicator to design such strategies. In this study, SSA is used as an alternative method to enhance trend resolution in comparison with the traditional MA. New trading rules using SSA as indicator are proposed. This paper shows that for the Down Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Shangai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) time-series the SSA trading rules provided, in general, better results in comparison to MA trading rules.

Atmospheric mold spore counts in relation to meteorological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katial, R. K.; Zhang, Yiming; Jones, Richard H.; Dyer, Philip D.

Fungal spore counts of Cladosporium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum were studied during 8 years in Denver, Colorado. Fungal spore counts were obtained daily during the pollinating season by a Rotorod sampler. Weather data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Daily averages of temperature, relative humidity, daily precipitation, barometric pressure, and wind speed were studied. A time series analysis was performed on the data to mathematically model the spore counts in relation to weather parameters. Using SAS PROC ARIMA software, a regression analysis was performed, regressing the spore counts on the weather variables assuming an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error structure. Cladosporium was found to be positively correlated (P<0.02) with average daily temperature, relative humidity, and negatively correlated with precipitation. Alternaria and Epicoccum did not show increased predictability with weather variables. A mathematical model was derived for Cladosporium spore counts using the annual seasonal cycle and significant weather variables. The model for Alternaria and Epicoccum incorporated the annual seasonal cycle. Fungal spore counts can be modeled by time series analysis and related to meteorological parameters controlling for seasonallity; this modeling can provide estimates of exposure to fungal aeroallergens.

Techniques used for the analysis of oculometer eye-scanning data obtained from an air traffic control display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, Daniel J.; Burdette, Daniel W.; Capron, William R.

1993-01-01

The methodology and techniques used to collect and analyze look-point position data from a real-time ATC display-format comparison experiment are documented. That study compared the delivery precision and controller workload of three final approach spacing aid display formats. Using an oculometer, controller lookpoint position data were collected, associated with gaze objects (e.g., moving aircraft) on the ATC display, and analyzed to determine eye-scan behavior. The equipment involved and algorithms for saving, synchronizing with the ATC simulation output, and filtering the data are described. Target (gaze object) and cross-check scanning identification algorithms are also presented. Data tables are provided of total dwell times, average dwell times, and cross-check scans. Flow charts, block diagrams, file record descriptors, and source code are included. The techniques and data presented are intended to benefit researchers in other studies that incorporate non-stationary gaze objects and oculometer equipment.

Digital image processing of Seabeam bathymetric data for structural studies of seamounts near the East Pacific Rise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, M. H.; Arvidson, R. E.; Guinness, E. A.

1984-01-01

The problem of displaying information on the seafloor morphology is attacked by utilizing digital image processing techniques to generate images for Seabeam data covering three young seamounts on the eastern flank of the East Pacific Rise. Errors in locations between crossing tracks are corrected by interactively identifying features and translating tracks relative to a control track. Spatial interpolation techniques using moving averages are used to interpolate between gridded depth values to produce images in shaded relief and color-coded forms. The digitally processed images clarify the structural control on seamount growth and clearly show the lateral extent of volcanic materials, including the distribution and fault control of subsidiary volcanic constructional features. The image presentations also clearly show artifacts related to both residual navigational errors and to depth or location differences that depend on ship heading relative to slope orientation in regions with steep slopes.

Family Structure, Residential Mobility, and Environmental Inequality

PubMed Central

Downey, Liam; Crowder, Kyle; Kemp, Robert J.

2016-01-01

This study combines micro-level data on families with children from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with neighborhood-level industrial hazard data from the Environmental Protection Agency and neighborhood-level U.S. census data to examine both the association between family structure and residential proximity to neighborhood pollution and the micro-level, residential mobility processes that contribute to differential pollution proximity across family types. Results indicate the existence of significant family structure differences in household proximity to industrial pollution in U.S. metropolitan areas between 1990 and 1999, with single-mother and single-father families experiencing neighborhood pollution levels that are on average 46% and 26% greater, respectively, than those experienced by two-parent families. Moreover, the pollution gap between single-mother and two-parent families persists with controls for household and neighborhood socioeconomic, sociodemographic, and race/ethnic characteristics. Examination of underlying migration patterns reveals that single-mother, single-father, and two-parent families are equally likely to move in response to pollution. However, mobile single-parent families move into neighborhoods with significantly higher pollution levels than do mobile two-parent families. Thus, family structure differences in pollution proximity are maintained more by these destination neighborhood differences than by family structure variations in the likelihood of moving out of polluted neighborhoods. PMID:28348440

The forward undulatory locomotion of Ceanorhabditis elegans in viscoelastic fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Amy; Ulrich, Xialing

2013-11-01

Caenorhabditis elegans is a soil dwelling roundworm that has served as model organisms for studying a multitude of biological and engineering phenomena. We study the undulatory locomotion of nematode in viscoelastic fluids with zero-shear viscosity varying from 0.03-75 Pa .s and relaxation times ranging from 0-350 s. We observe that the averaged normalized wavelength of swimming worm is essentially the same as that in Newtonian fluids. The undulatory frequency f shows the same reduction rate with respect to zero-shear viscosity in viscoelastic fluids as that found in the Newtonian fluids, meaning that the undulatory frequency is mainly controlled by the fluid viscosity. However, the moving speed Vm of the worm shows more distinct dependence on the elasticity of the fluid and exhibits a 4% drop with each 10-fold increase of the Deborah number De, a dimensionless number characterizing the elasticity of a fluid. To estimate the swimming efficiency coefficient and the ratio K =CN /CL of resistive coefficients of the worm in various viscoelastic fluids, we show that whereas it would take the worm around 7 periods to move a body length in a Newtonian fluid, it would take 27 periods to move a body length in a highly viscoelastic fluid.

A freely-moving monkey treadmill model.

PubMed

Foster, Justin D; Nuyujukian, Paul; Freifeld, Oren; Gao, Hua; Walker, Ross; I Ryu, Stephen; H Meng, Teresa; Murmann, Boris; J Black, Michael; Shenoy, Krishna V

2014-08-01

Motor neuroscience and brain-machine interface (BMI) design is based on examining how the brain controls voluntary movement, typically by recording neural activity and behavior from animal models. Recording technologies used with these animal models have traditionally limited the range of behaviors that can be studied, and thus the generality of science and engineering research. We aim to design a freely-moving animal model using neural and behavioral recording technologies that do not constrain movement. We have established a freely-moving rhesus monkey model employing technology that transmits neural activity from an intracortical array using a head-mounted device and records behavior through computer vision using markerless motion capture. We demonstrate the flexibility and utility of this new monkey model, including the first recordings from motor cortex while rhesus monkeys walk quadrupedally on a treadmill. Using this monkey model, we show that multi-unit threshold-crossing neural activity encodes the phase of walking and that the average firing rate of the threshold crossings covaries with the speed of individual steps. On a population level, we find that neural state-space trajectories of walking at different speeds have similar rotational dynamics in some dimensions that evolve at the step rate of walking, yet robustly separate by speed in other state-space dimensions. Freely-moving animal models may allow neuroscientists to examine a wider range of behaviors and can provide a flexible experimental paradigm for examining the neural mechanisms that underlie movement generation across behaviors and environments. For BMIs, freely-moving animal models have the potential to aid prosthetic design by examining how neural encoding changes with posture, environment and other real-world context changes. Understanding this new realm of behavior in more naturalistic settings is essential for overall progress of basic motor neuroscience and for the successful translation of BMIs to people with paralysis.

Distractor interference during smooth pursuit eye movements.

PubMed

Spering, Miriam; Gegenfurtner, Karl R; Kerzel, Dirk

2006-10-01

When 2 targets for pursuit eye movements move in different directions, the eye velocity follows the vector average (S. G. Lisberger & V. P. Ferrera, 1997). The present study investigates the mechanisms of target selection when observers are instructed to follow a predefined horizontal target and to ignore a moving distractor stimulus. Results show that at 140 ms after distractor onset, horizontal eye velocity is decreased by about 25%. Vertical eye velocity increases or decreases by 1 degrees /s in the direction opposite from the distractor. This deviation varies in size with distractor direction, velocity, and contrast. The effect was present during the initiation and steady-state tracking phase of pursuit but only when the observer had prior information about target motion. Neither vector averaging nor winner-take-all models could predict the response to a moving to-be-ignored distractor during steady-state tracking of a predefined target. The contributions of perceptual mislocalization and spatial attention to the vertical deviation in pursuit are discussed. Copyright 2006 APA.

Changes in healthcare use among individuals who move into public housing: a population-based investigation.

PubMed

Hinds, Aynslie M; Bechtel, Brian; Distasio, Jino; Roos, Leslie L; Lix, Lisa M

2018-06-05

Residence in public housing, a subsidized and managed government program, may affect health and healthcare utilization. We compared healthcare use in the year before individuals moved into public housing with usage during their first year of tenancy. We also described trends in use. We used linked population-based administrative data housed in the Population Research Data Repository at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy. The cohort consisted of individuals who moved into public housing in 2009 and 2010. We counted the number of hospitalizations, general practitioner (GP) visits, specialist visits, emergency department visits, and prescriptions drugs dispensed in the twelve 30-day intervals (i.e., months) immediately preceding and following the public housing move-in date. Generalized linear models with generalized estimating equations tested for a period (pre/post-move-in) by month interaction. Odds ratios (ORs), incident rate ratios (IRRs), and means are reported along with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). The cohort included 1942 individuals; the majority were female (73.4%) who lived in low income areas and received government assistance (68.1%). On average, the cohort had more than four health conditions. Over the 24 30-day intervals, the percentage of the cohort that visited a GP, specialist, and an emergency department ranged between 37.0% and 43.0%, 10.0% and 14.0%, and 6.0% and 10.0%, respectively, while the percentage of the cohort hospitalized ranged from 1.0% to 5.0%. Generally, these percentages were highest in the few months before the move-in date and lowest in the few months after the move-in date. The period by month interaction was statistically significant for hospitalizations, GP visits, and prescription drug use. The average change in the odds, rate, or mean was smaller in the post-move-in period than in the pre-move-in period. Use of some healthcare services declined after people moved into public housing; however, the decrease was only observed in the first few months and utilization rebounded. Knowledge of healthcare trends before individuals move in are informative for ensuring the appropriate supports are available to new public housing residents. Further study is needed to determine if decreased healthcare utilization following a move is attributable to decreased access.

The change of sleeping and lying posture of Japanese black cows after moving into new environment.

PubMed

Fukasawa, Michiru; Komatsu, Tokushi; Higashiyama, Yumi

2018-04-25

The environmental change is one of the stressful events in livestock production. Change in environment disturbed cow behavior and cows needed several days to reach stable behavioral pattern, especially sleeping posture (SP) and lying posture (LP) have been used as an indicator for relax and well-acclimated to its environment. The aim of this study examines how long does Japanese black cow required for stabilization of SP and LP after moving into new environment. Seven pregnant Japanese black cows were used. Cows were moved into new tie-stall shed and measured sleeping and lying posture 17 times during 35 experimental days. Both SP and LP were detected by accelerometer fixed on middle occipital and hip-cross, respectively. Daily total time, frequency, and average bout of both SP and LP were calculated. Daily SP time was the shortest on day 1, and increased to the highest on day3. It decreased until day 9, after that stabilized about 65 min /day till the end of experiment. The longest average SP bout was shown on day 1, and it decreased to stabilize till day 7. Daily LP time was changed as same manner as daily SP time. The average SP bout showed the longest on day 1, and it decreased to stable level till day 7. On the other hand, the average LP bout showed the shortest on day1, and it was increased to stable level till on day 7. These results showed that pregnant Japanese black cows needed 1 week to stabilize their SP. However, there were different change pattern between the average SP and LP bout, even though the change pattern of daily SP and LP time were similar.

Move-by-move dynamics of the advantage in chess matches reveals population-level learning of the game.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Haroldo V; Mendes, Renio S; Lenzi, Ervin K; del Castillo-Mussot, Marcelo; Amaral, Luís A N

2013-01-01

The complexity of chess matches has attracted broad interest since its invention. This complexity and the availability of large number of recorded matches make chess an ideal model systems for the study of population-level learning of a complex system. We systematically investigate the move-by-move dynamics of the white player's advantage from over seventy thousand high level chess matches spanning over 150 years. We find that the average advantage of the white player is positive and that it has been increasing over time. Currently, the average advantage of the white player is 0.17 pawns but it is exponentially approaching a value of 0.23 pawns with a characteristic time scale of 67 years. We also study the diffusion of the move dependence of the white player's advantage and find that it is non-Gaussian, has long-ranged anti-correlations and that after an initial period with no diffusion it becomes super-diffusive. We find that the duration of the non-diffusive period, corresponding to the opening stage of a match, is increasing in length and exponentially approaching a value of 15.6 moves with a characteristic time scale of 130 years. We interpret these two trends as a resulting from learning of the features of the game. Additionally, we find that the exponent [Formula: see text] characterizing the super-diffusive regime is increasing toward a value of 1.9, close to the ballistic regime. We suggest that this trend is due to the increased broadening of the range of abilities of chess players participating in major tournaments.

Move-by-Move Dynamics of the Advantage in Chess Matches Reveals Population-Level Learning of the Game

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Haroldo V.; Mendes, Renio S.; Lenzi, Ervin K.; del Castillo-Mussot, Marcelo; Amaral, Luís A. N.

2013-01-01

The complexity of chess matches has attracted broad interest since its invention. This complexity and the availability of large number of recorded matches make chess an ideal model systems for the study of population-level learning of a complex system. We systematically investigate the move-by-move dynamics of the white player’s advantage from over seventy thousand high level chess matches spanning over 150 years. We find that the average advantage of the white player is positive and that it has been increasing over time. Currently, the average advantage of the white player is 0.17 pawns but it is exponentially approaching a value of 0.23 pawns with a characteristic time scale of 67 years. We also study the diffusion of the move dependence of the white player’s advantage and find that it is non-Gaussian, has long-ranged anti-correlations and that after an initial period with no diffusion it becomes super-diffusive. We find that the duration of the non-diffusive period, corresponding to the opening stage of a match, is increasing in length and exponentially approaching a value of 15.6 moves with a characteristic time scale of 130 years. We interpret these two trends as a resulting from learning of the features of the game. Additionally, we find that the exponent characterizing the super-diffusive regime is increasing toward a value of 1.9, close to the ballistic regime. We suggest that this trend is due to the increased broadening of the range of abilities of chess players participating in major tournaments. PMID:23382876

Adaptive-Repetitive Visual-Servo Control of Low-Flying Aerial Robots via Uncalibrated High-Flying Cameras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Dejun; Bourne, Joseph R.; Wang, Hesheng; Yim, Woosoon; Leang, Kam K.

2017-08-01

This paper presents the design and implementation of an adaptive-repetitive visual-servo control system for a moving high-flying vehicle (HFV) with an uncalibrated camera to monitor, track, and precisely control the movements of a low-flying vehicle (LFV) or mobile ground robot. Applications of this control strategy include the use of high-flying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with computer vision for monitoring, controlling, and coordinating the movements of lower altitude agents in areas, for example, where GPS signals may be unreliable or nonexistent. When deployed, a remote operator of the HFV defines the desired trajectory for the LFV in the HFV's camera frame. Due to the circular motion of the HFV, the resulting motion trajectory of the LFV in the image frame can be periodic in time, thus an adaptive-repetitive control system is exploited for regulation and/or trajectory tracking. The adaptive control law is able to handle uncertainties in the camera's intrinsic and extrinsic parameters. The design and stability analysis of the closed-loop control system is presented, where Lyapunov stability is shown. Simulation and experimental results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method for controlling the movement of a low-flying quadcopter, demonstrating the capabilities of the visual-servo control system for localization (i.e.,, motion capturing) and trajectory tracking control. In fact, results show that the LFV can be commanded to hover in place as well as track a user-defined flower-shaped closed trajectory, while the HFV and camera system circulates above with constant angular velocity. On average, the proposed adaptive-repetitive visual-servo control system reduces the average RMS tracking error by over 77% in the image plane and over 71% in the world frame compared to using just the adaptive visual-servo control law.

Use of the temporal median and trimmed mean mitigates effects of respiratory motion in multiple-acquisition abdominal diffusion imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerome, N. P.; Orton, M. R.; d'Arcy, J. A.; Feiweier, T.; Tunariu, N.; Koh, D.-M.; Leach, M. O.; Collins, D. J.

2015-01-01

Respiratory motion commonly confounds abdominal diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, where averaging of successive samples at different parts of the respiratory cycle, performed in the scanner, manifests the motion as blurring of tissue boundaries and structural features and can introduce bias into calculated diffusion metrics. Storing multiple averages separately allows processing using metrics other than the mean; in this prospective volunteer study, median and trimmed mean values of signal intensity for each voxel over repeated averages and diffusion-weighting directions are shown to give images with sharper tissue boundaries and structural features for moving tissues, while not compromising non-moving structures. Expert visual scoring of derived diffusion maps is significantly higher for the median than for the mean, with modest improvement from the trimmed mean. Diffusion metrics derived from mono- and bi-exponential diffusion models are comparable for non-moving structures, demonstrating a lack of introduced bias from using the median. The use of the median is a simple and computationally inexpensive alternative to complex and expensive registration algorithms, requiring only additional data storage (and no additional scanning time) while returning visually superior images that will facilitate the appropriate placement of regions-of-interest when analysing abdominal diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images, for assessment of disease characteristics and treatment response.

A novel algorithm for Bluetooth ECG.

PubMed

Pandya, Utpal T; Desai, Uday B

2012-11-01

In wireless transmission of ECG, data latency will be significant when battery power level and data transmission distance are not maintained. In applications like home monitoring or personalized care, to overcome the joint effect of previous issues of wireless transmission and other ECG measurement noises, a novel filtering strategy is required. Here, a novel algorithm, identified as peak rejection adaptive sampling modified moving average (PRASMMA) algorithm for wireless ECG is introduced. This algorithm first removes error in bit pattern of received data if occurred in wireless transmission and then removes baseline drift. Afterward, a modified moving average is implemented except in the region of each QRS complexes. The algorithm also sets its filtering parameters according to different sampling rate selected for acquisition of signals. To demonstrate the work, a prototyped Bluetooth-based ECG module is used to capture ECG with different sampling rate and in different position of patient. This module transmits ECG wirelessly to Bluetooth-enabled devices where the PRASMMA algorithm is applied on captured ECG. The performance of PRASMMA algorithm is compared with moving average and S-Golay algorithms visually as well as numerically. The results show that the PRASMMA algorithm can significantly improve the ECG reconstruction by efficiently removing the noise and its use can be extended to any parameters where peaks are importance for diagnostic purpose.

Use of the temporal median and trimmed mean mitigates effects of respiratory motion in multiple-acquisition abdominal diffusion imaging.

PubMed

Jerome, N P; Orton, M R; d'Arcy, J A; Feiweier, T; Tunariu, N; Koh, D-M; Leach, M O; Collins, D J

2015-01-21

Respiratory motion commonly confounds abdominal diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, where averaging of successive samples at different parts of the respiratory cycle, performed in the scanner, manifests the motion as blurring of tissue boundaries and structural features and can introduce bias into calculated diffusion metrics. Storing multiple averages separately allows processing using metrics other than the mean; in this prospective volunteer study, median and trimmed mean values of signal intensity for each voxel over repeated averages and diffusion-weighting directions are shown to give images with sharper tissue boundaries and structural features for moving tissues, while not compromising non-moving structures. Expert visual scoring of derived diffusion maps is significantly higher for the median than for the mean, with modest improvement from the trimmed mean. Diffusion metrics derived from mono- and bi-exponential diffusion models are comparable for non-moving structures, demonstrating a lack of introduced bias from using the median. The use of the median is a simple and computationally inexpensive alternative to complex and expensive registration algorithms, requiring only additional data storage (and no additional scanning time) while returning visually superior images that will facilitate the appropriate placement of regions-of-interest when analysing abdominal diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images, for assessment of disease characteristics and treatment response.

Enhancement of the Comb Filtering Selectivity Using Iterative Moving Average for Periodic Waveform and Harmonic Elimination

PubMed Central

Wu, Yan; Aarts, Ronald M.

2018-01-01

A recurring problem regarding the use of conventional comb filter approaches for elimination of periodic waveforms is the degree of selectivity achieved by the filtering process. Some applications, such as the gradient artefact correction in EEG recordings during coregistered EEG-fMRI, require a highly selective comb filtering that provides effective attenuation in the stopbands and gain close to unity in the pass-bands. In this paper, we present a novel comb filtering implementation whereby the iterative filtering application of FIR moving average-based approaches is exploited in order to enhance the comb filtering selectivity. Our results indicate that the proposed approach can be used to effectively approximate the FIR moving average filter characteristics to those of an ideal filter. A cascaded implementation using the proposed approach shows to further increase the attenuation in the filter stopbands. Moreover, broadening of the bandwidth of the comb filtering stopbands around −3 dB according to the fundamental frequency of the stopband can be achieved by the novel method, which constitutes an important characteristic to account for broadening of the harmonic gradient artefact spectral lines. In parallel, the proposed filtering implementation can also be used to design a novel notch filtering approach with enhanced selectivity as well. PMID:29599955

Analysis of forecasting and inventory control of raw material supplies in PT INDAC INT’L

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Riaman; Jabar, D. A.

2018-03-01

This study discusses the data forecasting sales of carbon electrodes at PT. INDAC INT L uses winters and double moving average methods, while for predicting the amount of inventory and cost required in ordering raw material of carbon electrode next period using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model. The result of error analysis shows that winters method for next period gives result of MAE, MSE, and MAPE, the winters method is a better forecasting method for forecasting sales of carbon electrode products. So that PT. INDAC INT L is advised to provide products that will be sold following the sales amount by the winters method.

FARMWORKERS, A REPRINT FROM THE 1966 MANPOWER REPORT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manpower Administration (DOL), Washington, DC.

ALTHOUGH THE AVERAGE STANDARD OF LIVING OF FARM PEOPLE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY, THEY CONTINUE TO FACE SEVERE PROBLEMS OF UNDEREMPLOYMENT AND POVERTY. THE AVERAGE PER CAPITA INCOME OF FARM RESIDENTS IS LESS THAN TWO-THIRDS THAT OF THE NONFARM POPULATION. MILLIONS HAVE MOVED TO CITIES, LEAVING STAGNATING RURAL COMMUNITIES, AND INCREASING THE CITY…

Severe Weather Guide - Mediterranean Ports. 7. Marseille

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

the afternoon. Upper—level westerlies and the associated storm track is moved northward during summer, so extratropical cyclones and associated...autumn as the extratropical storm track moves southward. Precipitation amount is the highest of the year, with an average of 3 inches (76 mm) for the...18 SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) Storm haven Mediterranean meteorology Marseille port

Polymer Coatings Degradation Properties

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-02-01

undertaken 124). The Box-Jenkins approach first evaluates the partial auto -correlation function and determines the order of the moving average memory function...78 - Tables 15 and 16 show the resalit- f- a, the partial auto correlation plots. Second order moving .-. "ra ;;th -he appropriate lags were...coated films. Kaempf, Guenter; Papenroth, Wolfgang; Kunststoffe Date: 1982 Volume: 72 Number:7 Pages: 424-429 Parameters influencing the accelerated

Multifractal detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2011-07-01

There are a number of situations in which several signals are simultaneously recorded in complex systems, which exhibit long-term power-law cross correlations. The multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MFDCCA) approaches can be used to quantify such cross correlations, such as the MFDCCA based on the detrended fluctuation analysis (MFXDFA) method. We develop in this work a class of MFDCCA algorithms based on the detrending moving-average analysis, called MFXDMA. The performances of the proposed MFXDMA algorithms are compared with the MFXDFA method by extensive numerical experiments on pairs of time series generated from bivariate fractional Brownian motions, two-component autoregressive fractionally integrated moving-average processes, and binomial measures, which have theoretical expressions of the multifractal nature. In all cases, the scaling exponents hxy extracted from the MFXDMA and MFXDFA algorithms are very close to the theoretical values. For bivariate fractional Brownian motions, the scaling exponent of the cross correlation is independent of the cross-correlation coefficient between two time series, and the MFXDFA and centered MFXDMA algorithms have comparative performances, which outperform the forward and backward MFXDMA algorithms. For two-component autoregressive fractionally integrated moving-average processes, we also find that the MFXDFA and centered MFXDMA algorithms have comparative performances, while the forward and backward MFXDMA algorithms perform slightly worse. For binomial measures, the forward MFXDMA algorithm exhibits the best performance, the centered MFXDMA algorithms performs worst, and the backward MFXDMA algorithm outperforms the MFXDFA algorithm when the moment order q<0 and underperforms when q>0. We apply these algorithms to the return time series of two stock market indexes and to their volatilities. For the returns, the centered MFXDMA algorithm gives the best estimates of hxy(q) since its hxy(2) is closest to 0.5, as expected, and the MFXDFA algorithm has the second best performance. For the volatilities, the forward and backward MFXDMA algorithms give similar results, while the centered MFXDMA and the MFXDFA algorithms fail to extract rational multifractal nature.

Traffic-Related Air Pollution, Blood Pressure, and Adaptive Response of Mitochondrial Abundance.

PubMed

Zhong, Jia; Cayir, Akin; Trevisi, Letizia; Sanchez-Guerra, Marco; Lin, Xinyi; Peng, Cheng; Bind, Marie-Abèle; Prada, Diddier; Laue, Hannah; Brennan, Kasey J M; Dereix, Alexandra; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Baccarelli, Andrea A

2016-01-26

Exposure to black carbon (BC), a tracer of vehicular-traffic pollution, is associated with increased blood pressure (BP). Identifying biological factors that attenuate BC effects on BP can inform prevention. We evaluated the role of mitochondrial abundance, an adaptive mechanism compensating for cellular-redox imbalance, in the BC-BP relationship. At ≥ 1 visits among 675 older men from the Normative Aging Study (observations=1252), we assessed daily BP and ambient BC levels from a stationary monitor. To determine blood mitochondrial abundance, we used whole blood to analyze mitochondrial-to-nuclear DNA ratio (mtDNA/nDNA) using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Every standard deviation increase in the 28-day BC moving average was associated with 1.97 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-2.72; P<0.0001) and 3.46 mm Hg (95% CI, 2.06-4.87; P<0.0001) higher diastolic and systolic BP, respectively. Positive BC-BP associations existed throughout all time windows. BC moving averages (5-day to 28-day) were associated with increased mtDNA/nDNA; every standard deviation increase in 28-day BC moving average was associated with 0.12 standard deviation (95% CI, 0.03-0.20; P=0.007) higher mtDNA/nDNA. High mtDNA/nDNA significantly attenuated the BC-systolic BP association throughout all time windows. The estimated effect of 28-day BC moving average on systolic BP was 1.95-fold larger for individuals at the lowest mtDNA/nDNA quartile midpoint (4.68 mm Hg; 95% CI, 3.03-6.33; P<0.0001), in comparison with the top quartile midpoint (2.40 mm Hg; 95% CI, 0.81-3.99; P=0.003). In older adults, short-term to moderate-term ambient BC levels were associated with increased BP and blood mitochondrial abundance. Our findings indicate that increased blood mitochondrial abundance is a compensatory response and attenuates the cardiac effects of BC. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Associations between Changes in City and Address Specific Temperature and QT Interval - The VA Normative Aging Study

PubMed Central

Mehta, Amar J.; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent A.; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel

2014-01-01

Background The underlying mechanisms of the association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are not well understood, particularly for daily temperature variability. We evaluated if daily mean temperature and standard deviation of temperature was associated with heart rate-corrected QT interval (QTc) duration, a marker of ventricular repolarization in a prospective cohort of older men. Methods This longitudinal analysis included 487 older men participating in the VA Normative Aging Study with up to three visits between 2000–2008 (n = 743). We analyzed associations between QTc and moving averages (1–7, 14, 21, and 28 days) of the 24-hour mean and standard deviation of temperature as measured from a local weather monitor, and the 24-hour mean temperature estimated from a spatiotemporal prediction model, in time-varying linear mixed-effect regression. Effect modification by season, diabetes, coronary heart disease, obesity, and age was also evaluated. Results Higher mean temperature as measured from the local monitor, and estimated from the prediction model, was associated with longer QTc at moving averages of 21 and 28 days. Increased 24-hr standard deviation of temperature was associated with longer QTc at moving averages from 4 and up to 28 days; a 1.9°C interquartile range increase in 4-day moving average standard deviation of temperature was associated with a 2.8 msec (95%CI: 0.4, 5.2) longer QTc. Associations between 24-hr standard deviation of temperature and QTc were stronger in colder months, and in participants with diabetes and coronary heart disease. Conclusion/Significance In this sample of older men, elevated mean temperature was associated with longer QTc, and increased variability of temperature was associated with longer QTc, particularly during colder months and among individuals with diabetes and coronary heart disease. These findings may offer insight of an important underlying mechanism of temperature-related cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in an older population. PMID:25238150

Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan.

PubMed

Wangdi, Kinley; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Silawan, Tassanee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; White, Nicholas J; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit

2010-09-03

Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX. This study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month. It was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009 and 67 to 149 cases in 2010, where population in 2009 was 285,375 and the expected population of 2010 to be 289,085. The ARIMAX model of monthly cases and climatic factors showed considerable variations among the different districts. In general, the mean maximum temperature lagged at one month was a strong positive predictor of an increased malaria cases for four districts. The monthly number of cases of the previous month was also a significant predictor in one district, whereas no variable could predict malaria cases for two districts. The ARIMA models of time-series analysis were useful in forecasting the number of cases in the endemic areas of Bhutan. There was no consistency in the predictors of malaria cases when using ARIMAX model with selected lag times and climatic predictors. The ARIMA forecasting models could be employed for planning and managing malaria prevention and control programme in Bhutan.

Brain-computer interfaces for 1-D and 2-D cursor control: designs using volitional control of the EEG spectrum or steady-state visual evoked potentials.

PubMed

Trejo, Leonard J; Rosipal, Roman; Matthews, Bryan

2006-06-01

We have developed and tested two electroencephalogram (EEG)-based brain-computer interfaces (BCI) for users to control a cursor on a computer display. Our system uses an adaptive algorithm, based on kernel partial least squares classification (KPLS), to associate patterns in multichannel EEG frequency spectra with cursor controls. Our first BCI, Target Practice, is a system for one-dimensional device control, in which participants use biofeedback to learn voluntary control of their EEG spectra. Target Practice uses a KPLS classifier to map power spectra of 62-electrode EEG signals to rightward or leftward position of a moving cursor on a computer display. Three subjects learned to control motion of a cursor on a video display in multiple blocks of 60 trials over periods of up to six weeks. The best subject's average skill in correct selection of the cursor direction grew from 58% to 88% after 13 training sessions. Target Practice also implements online control of two artifact sources: 1) removal of ocular artifact by linear subtraction of wavelet-smoothed vertical and horizontal electrooculograms (EOG) signals, 2) control of muscle artifact by inhibition of BCI training during periods of relatively high power in the 40-64 Hz band. The second BCI, Think Pointer, is a system for two-dimensional cursor control. Steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEP) are triggered by four flickering checkerboard stimuli located in narrow strips at each edge of the display. The user attends to one of the four beacons to initiate motion in the desired direction. The SSVEP signals are recorded from 12 electrodes located over the occipital region. A KPLS classifier is individually calibrated to map multichannel frequency bands of the SSVEP signals to right-left or up-down motion of a cursor on a computer display. The display stops moving when the user attends to a central fixation point. As for Target Practice, Think Pointer also implements wavelet-based online removal of ocular artifact; however, in Think Pointer muscle artifact is controlled via adaptive normalization of the SSVEP. Training of the classifier requires about 3 min. We have tested our system in real-time operation in three human subjects. Across subjects and sessions, control accuracy ranged from 80% to 100% correct with lags of 1-5 s for movement initiation and turning. We have also developed a realistic demonstration of our system for control of a moving map display (http://ti.arc.nasa.gov/).

Tracking Movements of Individual Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) Adults: Application of Harmonic Radar

Treesearch

David W. Williams; Guohong Li; Ruitong Gao

2004-01-01

Movements of 55 Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) adults were monitored on 200 willow trees, Salix babylonica L., at a site appx. 80 km southeast of Beijing, China, for 9-14 d in an individual mark-recapture study using harmonic radar. The average movement distance was appx. 14 m, with many beetles not moving at all and others moving >90 m. The rate of movement...

Beyond Horse Race Comparisons of National Performance Averages: Math Performance Variation within and between Classrooms in 38 Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Min-Hsiung

2009-01-01

Reports of international studies of student achievement often receive public attention worldwide. However, this attention overly focuses on the national rankings of average student performance. To move beyond the simplistic comparison of national mean scores, this study investigates (a) country differences in the measures of variability as well as…

Burn Control in Fusion Reactors via Isotopic Fuel Tailoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, Mark D.; Schuster, Eugenio

2011-10-01

The control of plasma density and temperature are among the most fundamental problems in fusion reactors and will be critical to the success of burning plasma experiments like ITER. Economic and technological constraints may require future commercial reactors to operate with low temperature, high-density plasma, for which the burn condition may be unstable. An active control system will be essential for stabilizing such operating points. In this work, a volume-averaged transport model for the energy and the densities of deuterium and tritium fuel ions, as well as the alpha particles, is used to synthesize a nonlinear feedback controller for stabilizing the burn condition. The controller makes use of ITER's planned isotopic fueling capability and controls the densities of these ions separately. The ability to modulate the DT fuel mix is exploited in order to reduce the fusion power during thermal excursions without the need for impurity injection. By moving the isotopic mix in the plasma away from the optimal 50:50 mix, the reaction rate is slowed and the alpha-particle heating is reduced to desired levels. Supported by the NSF CAREER award program (ECCS-0645086).

Moving from idea to action: promoting physical activity by empowering adolescents.

PubMed

Lindqvist, Anna-Karin; Mikaelsson, Katarina; Westerberg, Mats; Gard, Gunvor; Kostenius, Catrine

2014-11-01

Physical activity provides fundamental health benefits for children and youth. The aim of the study was to explore the possibility of conducting an empowerment-inspired intervention and examine the impact of the intervention in promoting moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA) among adolescents. A nonrandomized trial with a concurrent control group was carried out. Physical activity data were collected before and after the intervention with daily questions by short message service. Self-efficacy, social support, and attitude were also measured before and after the intervention since they were possible mediators. The intervention was created by the students, the researchers, and the teachers using an empowerment-based approach. Students in the intervention group (n = 21) increased their MVPA on average by 4.9 (SD = 28.9) minutes per day, and students in the control group (n = 25) reduced their MVPA on average by 25.4 (SD = 23.0) minutes per day (p = .000). The intervention might have contributed to a promotion of physical activity among students in the intervention group. The most valuable contribution this study provides is the knowledge that it is possible to develop and conduct an empowerment-inspired intervention to promote adolescent physical activity. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

Simulation of the Transverse Injection of a Pulsed Jet from the Surface of a Flat Plate into a Supersonic Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volkov, K. N.; Emelyanov, V. N.; Yakovchuk, M. S.

2017-11-01

The transverse injection of a pulsed jet into a supersonic flow for thrust vectoring in solid rocket motors is investigated. The gas flow through the injection nozzle is controlled by a piston which performs reciprocating motion. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations and the ( k- ɛ) turbulence model equations are discretized using the finite volume method and moving grids. The pressure distributions on the plate surface obtained using various approaches to the description of the flow field and difference schemes are compared. The solution obtained for the case of injection of a pulsed jet is compared with the solution for the case where a valve prevents gas flow through the injection nozzle. The dependence of the control force produced by gas injection on time is investigated.

Moving to Opportunity and Mental Health: Exploring the Spatial Context of Neighborhood Effects

PubMed Central

Arcaya, Mariana C; Diez Roux, Ana V.

2016-01-01

Studies of housing mobility and neighborhood effects on health often treat neighborhoods as if they were isolated islands. This paper argues that conceptualizing neighborhoods as part of the wider spatial context within which they are embedded may be key in advancing our understanding of the role of local context in the life of urban dwellers. Analyses are based on mental health and neighborhood context measurements taken on over 3,000 low-income families who participated in the Moving to Opportunity for Fair Housing Demonstration Program (MTO), a large field experiment in five major U.S. cities. Results from analyses of two survey waves combined with Census data at different geographic scales indicate that assignment to MTO's experimental condition of neighborhood poverty <10% significantly decreased average exposure to immediate and surrounding neighborhood disadvantage by 97% and 59% of a standard deviation, respectively, relative to the control group. Escaping concentrated disadvantage in either the immediate neighborhood or the surrounding neighborhood, but not both, was insufficient to make a difference for mental health. Instead, the results suggest that improving both the immediate and surrounding neighborhoods significantly benefits mental health. Compared to remaining in concentrated disadvantage in the immediate and surrounding neighborhood, escaping concentrated disadvantage in both the immediate and surrounding neighborhood on average over the study duration as a result of the intervention predicts an increase of 25% of a standard deviation in the composite mental health scores. PMID:27337349

A novel approach to estimate emissions from large transportation networks: Hierarchical clustering-based link-driving-schedules for EPA-MOVES using dynamic time warping measures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aziz, H. M. Abdul; Ukkusuri, Satish V.

We present that EPA-MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator) is often integrated with traffic simulators to assess emission levels of large-scale urban networks with signalized intersections. High variations in speed profiles exist in the context of congested urban networks with signalized intersections. The traditional average-speed-based emission estimation technique with EPA-MOVES provides faster execution while underestimates the emissions in most cases because of ignoring the speed variation at congested networks with signalized intersections. In contrast, the atomic second-by-second speed profile (i.e., the trajectory of each vehicle)-based technique provides accurate emissions at the cost of excessive computational power and time. We addressed thismore » issue by developing a novel method to determine the link-driving-schedules (LDSs) for the EPA-MOVES tool. Our research developed a hierarchical clustering technique with dynamic time warping similarity measures (HC-DTW) to find the LDS for EPA-MOVES that is capable of producing emission estimates better than the average-speed-based technique with execution time faster than the atomic speed profile approach. We applied the HC-DTW on a sample data from a signalized corridor and found that HC-DTW can significantly reduce computational time without compromising the accuracy. The developed technique in this research can substantially contribute to the EPA-MOVES-based emission estimation process for large-scale urban transportation network by reducing the computational time with reasonably accurate estimates. This method is highly appropriate for transportation networks with higher variation in speed such as signalized intersections. Lastly, experimental results show error difference ranging from 2% to 8% for most pollutants except PM 10.« less

A novel approach to estimate emissions from large transportation networks: Hierarchical clustering-based link-driving-schedules for EPA-MOVES using dynamic time warping measures

DOE PAGES

Aziz, H. M. Abdul; Ukkusuri, Satish V.

2017-06-29

We present that EPA-MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator) is often integrated with traffic simulators to assess emission levels of large-scale urban networks with signalized intersections. High variations in speed profiles exist in the context of congested urban networks with signalized intersections. The traditional average-speed-based emission estimation technique with EPA-MOVES provides faster execution while underestimates the emissions in most cases because of ignoring the speed variation at congested networks with signalized intersections. In contrast, the atomic second-by-second speed profile (i.e., the trajectory of each vehicle)-based technique provides accurate emissions at the cost of excessive computational power and time. We addressed thismore » issue by developing a novel method to determine the link-driving-schedules (LDSs) for the EPA-MOVES tool. Our research developed a hierarchical clustering technique with dynamic time warping similarity measures (HC-DTW) to find the LDS for EPA-MOVES that is capable of producing emission estimates better than the average-speed-based technique with execution time faster than the atomic speed profile approach. We applied the HC-DTW on a sample data from a signalized corridor and found that HC-DTW can significantly reduce computational time without compromising the accuracy. The developed technique in this research can substantially contribute to the EPA-MOVES-based emission estimation process for large-scale urban transportation network by reducing the computational time with reasonably accurate estimates. This method is highly appropriate for transportation networks with higher variation in speed such as signalized intersections. Lastly, experimental results show error difference ranging from 2% to 8% for most pollutants except PM 10.« less

Simulations of moving effect of coastal vegetation on tsunami damping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Ching-Piao; Chen, Ying-Chi; Octaviani Sihombing, Tri; Lin, Chang

2017-05-01

A coupled wave-vegetation simulation is presented for the moving effect of the coastal vegetation on tsunami wave height damping. The problem is idealized by solitary wave propagation on a group of emergent cylinders. The numerical model is based on general Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with renormalization group turbulent closure model by using volume of fluid technique. The general moving object (GMO) model developed in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code Flow-3D is applied to simulate the coupled motion of vegetation with wave dynamically. The damping of wave height and the turbulent kinetic energy along moving and stationary cylinders are discussed. The simulated results show that the damping of wave height and the turbulent kinetic energy by the moving cylinders are clearly less than by the stationary cylinders. The result implies that the wave decay by the coastal vegetation may be overestimated if the vegetation was represented as stationary state.

Derivation of simple rules for complex flow vector fields on the lower part of the human face for robot face design.

PubMed

Ishihara, Hisashi; Ota, Nobuyuki; Asada, Minoru

2017-11-27

It is quite difficult for android robots to replicate the numerous and various types of human facial expressions owing to limitations in terms of space, mechanisms, and materials. This situation could be improved with greater knowledge regarding these expressions and their deformation rules, i.e. by using the biomimetic approach. In a previous study, we investigated 16 facial deformation patterns and found that each facial point moves almost only in its own principal direction and different deformation patterns are created with different combinations of moving lengths. However, the replication errors caused by moving each control point of a face in only their principal direction were not evaluated for each deformation pattern at that time. Therefore, we calculated the replication errors in this study using the second principal component scores of the 16 sets of flow vectors at each point on the face. More than 60% of the errors were within 1 mm, and approximately 90% of them were within 3 mm. The average error was 1.1 mm. These results indicate that robots can replicate the 16 investigated facial expressions with errors within 3 mm and 1 mm for about 90% and 60% of the vectors, respectively, even if each point on the robot face moves in only its own principal direction. This finding seems promising for the development of robots capable of showing various facial expressions because significantly fewer types of movements than previously predicted are necessary.

Response to reflected-force feedback to fingers in teleoperations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sutter, P. H.; Iatridis, J. C.; Thakor, N. V.

1989-01-01

Reflected-force feedback is an important aspect of teleoperations. The objective is to determine the ability of the human operator to respond to that force. Telerobotics operation is simulated by computer control of a motor-driven device with capabilities for programmable force feedback and force measurement. A computer-controlled motor drive is developed that provides forces against the fingers as well as (angular) position control. A load cell moves in a circular arc as it is pushed by a finger and measures reaction forces on the finger. The force exerted by the finger on the load cell and the angular position are digitized and recorded as a function of time by the computer. Flexure forces of the index, long and ring fingers of the human hand in opposition to the motor driven load cell are investigated. Results of the following experiments are presented: (1) Exertion of maximum finger force as a function of angle; (2) Exertion of target finger force against a computer controlled force; and (3) Test of the ability to move to a target force against a force that is a function of position. Averaged over ten individuals, the maximum force that could be exerted by the index or long finger is about 50 Newtons, while that of the ring finger is about 40 Newtons. From the tests of the ability of a subject to exert a target force, it was concluded that reflected-force feedback can be achieved with the direct kinesthetic perception of force without the use of tactile or visual clues.

Three Least-Squares Minimization Approaches to Interpret Gravity Data Due to Dipping Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelrahman, E. M.; Essa, K. S.

2015-02-01

We have developed three different least-squares minimization approaches to determine, successively, the depth, dip angle, and amplitude coefficient related to the thickness and density contrast of a buried dipping fault from first moving average residual gravity anomalies. By defining the zero-anomaly distance and the anomaly value at the origin of the moving average residual profile, the problem of depth determination is transformed into a constrained nonlinear gravity inversion. After estimating the depth of the fault, the dip angle is estimated by solving a nonlinear inverse problem. Finally, after estimating the depth and dip angle, the amplitude coefficient is determined using a linear equation. This method can be applied to residuals as well as to measured gravity data because it uses the moving average residual gravity anomalies to estimate the model parameters of the faulted structure. The proposed method was tested on noise-corrupted synthetic and real gravity data. In the case of the synthetic data, good results are obtained when errors are given in the zero-anomaly distance and the anomaly value at the origin, and even when the origin is determined approximately. In the case of practical data (Bouguer anomaly over Gazal fault, south Aswan, Egypt), the fault parameters obtained are in good agreement with the actual ones and with those given in the published literature.

An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2001-01-01

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

Movement compatibility for configurations of displays located in three cardinal orientations and ipsilateral, contralateral and overhead controls.

PubMed

Chan, Alan H S; Hoffmann, Errol R

2012-01-01

Stereotype strength and reversibility were determined for displays that were in the Front, Right and Left orientations relative to the operator, along with rotary, horizontally and vertically-moving controls located in the overhead, left-sagittal and right-sagittal planes. In each case, responses were made using the left and right hands. The arrangements used were (i) rotary control with a circular display (ii) horizontal/transverse control moving forward/rearward in the left and right-sagittal planes or transversely in the overhead plane and (iii) vertical/longitudinal control moving vertically in the left and right-sagittal planes and longitudinally in the overhead plane. These are all combinations not previously researched. Stereotype strength varied with display plane, type of control and plane of control. Models for the stereotype strength are developed, showing the contribution of various components to the overall stereotype strength. The major component for horizontally-moving controls comes from the "visual field" model of Worringham and Beringer (1998); for the rotary control important factors are "clockwise-for-clockwise" and the hand/control location effect (Hoffmann, 2009a). Vertically-moving controls are governed by a simple 'up-for-up' relationship between displays and controls. Overall stereotype strength is a maximum when all components add positively. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Background and principles of throttles-only flight control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burcham, Frank W., Jr.

1995-01-01

There have been many cases in which the crew of a multi-engine airplane had to use engine thrust for emergency flight control. Such a procedure is very difficult, because the propulsive control forces are small, the engine response is slow, and airplane dynamics such as the phugoid and dutch roll are difficult to damp with thrust. In general, thrust increases are used to climb, thrust decreases to descend, and differential thrust is used to turn. Average speed is not significantly affected by changes in throttle setting. Pitch control is achieved because of pitching moments due to speed changes, from thrust offset, and from the vertical component of thrust. Roll control is achieved by using differential thrust to develop yaw, which, through the normal dihedral effect, causes a roll. Control power in pitch and roll tends to increase as speed decreases. Although speed is not controlled by the throttles, configuration changes are often available (lowering gear, flaps, moving center-of-gravity) to change the speed. The airplane basic stability is also a significant factor. Fuel slosh and gyroscopic moments are small influences on throttles-only control. The background and principles of throttles-only flight control are described.

Endemic Dengue Associated with the Co-Circulation of Multiple Viral Lineages and Localized Density-Dependent Transmission

PubMed Central

Raghwani, Jayna; Rambaut, Andrew; Holmes, Edward C.; Hang, Vu Ty; Hien, Tran Tinh; Farrar, Jeremy; Wills, Bridget; Lennon, Niall J.; Birren, Bruce W.; Henn, Matthew R.; Simmons, Cameron P.

2011-01-01

Dengue is one of the most important infectious diseases of humans and has spread throughout much of the tropical and subtropical world. Despite this widespread dispersal, the determinants of dengue transmission in endemic populations are not well understood, although essential for virus control. To address this issue we performed a phylogeographic analysis of 751 complete genome sequences of dengue 1 virus (DENV-1) sampled from both rural (Dong Thap) and urban (Ho Chi Minh City) populations in southern Viet Nam during the period 2003–2008. We show that DENV-1 in Viet Nam exhibits strong spatial clustering, with likely importation from Cambodia on multiple occasions. Notably, multiple lineages of DENV-1 co-circulated in Ho Chi Minh City. That these lineages emerged at approximately the same time and dispersed over similar spatial regions suggests that they are of broadly equivalent fitness. We also observed an important relationship between the density of the human host population and the dispersion rate of dengue, such that DENV-1 tends to move from urban to rural populations, and that densely populated regions within Ho Chi Minh City act as major transmission foci. Despite these fluid dynamics, the dispersion rates of DENV-1 are relatively low, particularly in Ho Chi Minh City where the virus moves less than an average of 20 km/year. These low rates suggest a major role for mosquito-mediated dispersal, such that DENV-1 does not need to move great distances to infect a new host when there are abundant susceptibles, and imply that control measures should be directed toward the most densely populated urban environments. PMID:21655108

Evaluation of Head Orientation and Neck Muscle EMG Signals as Command Inputs to a Human-Computer Interface for Individuals with High Tetraplegia

PubMed Central

Williams, Matthew R.; Kirsch, Robert F.

2013-01-01

We investigated the performance of three user interfaces for restoration of cursor control in individuals with tetraplegia: head orientation, EMG from face and neck muscles, and a standard computer mouse (for comparison). Subjects engaged in a 2D, center-out, Fitts’ Law style task and performance was evaluated using several measures. Overall, head orientation commanded motion resembled mouse commanded cursor motion (smooth, accurate movements to all targets), although with somewhat lower performance. EMG commanded movements exhibited a higher average speed, but other performance measures were lower, particularly for diagonal targets. Compared to head orientation, EMG as a cursor command source was less accurate, was more affected by target direction and was more prone to overshoot the target. In particular, EMG commands for diagonal targets were more sequential, moving first in one direction and then the other rather than moving simultaneous in the two directions. While the relative performance of each user interface differs, each has specific advantages depending on the application. PMID:18990652

The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

2007-07-01

This paper extends the work in Elder and Serletis [Long memory in energy futures prices, Rev. Financial Econ., forthcoming, 2007] and Serletis et al. [Detrended fluctuation analysis of the US stock market, Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, forthcoming, 2007] by re-examining the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, it uses daily data on energy futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, over the period from July 2, 1990 to November 1, 2006, and a statistical physics approach-the ‘detrending moving average’ technique-providing a reliable framework for testing the information efficiency in financial markets as shown by Alessio et al. [Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 197-200] and Carbone et al. [Time-dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 344 (2004) 267-271; Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 026105]. The results show that energy futures returns display long memory and that the particular form of long memory is anti-persistence.

Behavior and Frequency Analysis of Aurelia aurita by Using in situ Target Strength at a Port in Southwestern Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Eun-A.; Hwang, Doo-Jin; Chae, Jinho; Yoon, Won Duk; Lee, Kyounghoon

2018-03-01

This study was carried out to determine the in situ target strength and behavioral characteristics of moon jellyfish ( Aurelia aurita) using two frequencies (38 and 120 kHz) that present a 2- frequency-difference method for distinguishing A. aurita from other marine planktonic organisms. The average TS was shown as -71.9 -67.9 dB at 38 kHz and -75.5 -66.0 dB at 120 kHz and the average ΔMVBS120-38 kHz was similar at -1.5 3.5 dB. The TS values varied in a range of about 14 dB from -83.3 and -69.0 dB depending on the pulsation of A. aurita. The species moved in a range of -0.1 1.0 m and they mostly moved horizontally with moving speeds of 0.3 0.6 m·s-1. The TS and behavioral characteristics of A. aurita can distinguish the species from others. The acoustic technology can also contribute to understanding the distribution and abundance of the species.

Environmental Assessment: Installation Development at Sheppard Air Force Base, Texas

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-01

column, or in topographic depressions. Water is then utilized by plants and is respired, or it moves slowly into groundwater and/or eventually to surface...water bodies where it slowly moves through the hydrologic cycle. Removal of vegetation decreases infiltration into the soil column and thereby...School District JP-4 jet propulsion fuel 4 kts knots Ldn Day- Night Average Sound Level Leq equivalent noise level Lmax maximum sound level lb pound

Community-based environmental management for malaria control: evidence from a small-scale intervention in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

PubMed

Castro, Marcia C; Tsuruta, Atsuko; Kanamori, Shogo; Kannady, Khadija; Mkude, Sixbert

2009-04-08

Historically, environmental management has brought important achievements in malaria control and overall improvements of health conditions. Currently, however, implementation is often considered not to be cost-effective. A community-based environmental management for malaria control was conducted in Dar es Salaam between 2005 and 2007. After community sensitization, two drains were cleaned followed by maintenance. This paper assessed the impact of the intervention on community awareness, prevalence of malaria infection, and Anopheles larval presence in drains. A survey was conducted in neighbourhoods adjacent to cleaned drains; for comparison, neighbourhoods adjacent to two drains treated with larvicides and two drains under no intervention were also surveyed. Data routinely collected by the Urban Malaria Control Programme were also used. Diverse impacts were evaluated through comparison of means, odds ratios (OR), logistic regression, and time trends calculated by moving averages. Individual awareness of health risks and intervention goals were significantly higher among sensitized neighbourhoods. A reduction in the odds of malaria infection during the post-cleaning period in intervention neighbourhoods was observed when compared to the pre-cleaning period (OR = 0.12, 95% CI 0.05-0.3, p < 0.001). During the post-cleaning period, a higher risk of infection (OR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.4, p = 0.0069) was observed in neighbourhoods under no intervention compared to intervention ones. Eighteen months after the initial cleaning, one of the drains was still clean due to continued maintenance efforts (it contained no waste materials and the water was flowing at normal velocity). A three-month moving average of the percentage of water habitats in that drain containing pupae and/or Anopheles larvae indicated a decline in larval density. In the other drain, lack of proper resources and local commitment limited success. Although environmental management was historically coordinated by authoritarian/colonial regimes or by industries/corporations, its successful implementation as part of an integrated vector management framework for malaria control under democratic governments can be possible if four conditions are observed: political will and commitment, community sensitization and participation, provision of financial resources for initial cleaning and structural repairs, and inter-sectoral collaboration. Such effort not only is expected to reduce malaria transmission, but has the potential to empower communities, improve health and environmental conditions, and ultimately contribute to poverty alleviation and sustainable development.

Encephalolexianalyzer

DOEpatents

Altschuler, E.L.; Dowla, F.U.

1998-11-24

The encephalolexianalyzer uses digital signal processing techniques on electroencephalograph (EEG) brain waves to determine whether or not someone is thinking about moving, e.g., tapping their fingers, or, alternatively, whether someone is actually moving, e.g., tapping their fingers, or at rest, i.e., not moving and not thinking of moving. The mu waves measured by a pair of electrodes placed over the motor cortex are signal processed to determine the power spectrum. At rest, the peak value of the power spectrum in the 8-13 Hz range is high, while when moving or thinking of moving, the peak value of the power spectrum in the 8-13 Hz range is low. This measured change in signal power spectrum is used to produce a control signal. The encephalolexianalyzer can be used to communicate either directly using Morse code, or via a cursor controlling a remote control; the encephalolexianalyzer can also be used to control other devices. The encephalolexianalyzer will be of great benefit to people with various handicaps and disabilities, and also has enormous commercial potential, as well as being an invaluable tool for studying the brain. 14 figs.

Encephalolexianalyzer

DOEpatents

Altschuler, Eric L.; Dowla, Farid U.

1998-01-01

The encephalolexianalyzer uses digital signal processing techniques on electroencephalograph (EEG) brain waves to determine whether or not someone is thinking about moving, e.g., tapping their fingers, or, alternatively, whether someone is actually moving, e.g., tapping their fingers, or at rest, i.e., not moving and not thinking of moving. The mu waves measured by a pair of electrodes placed over the motor cortex are signal processed to determine the power spectrum. At rest, the peak value of the power spectrum in the 8-13 Hz range is high, while when moving or thinking of moving, the peak value of the power spectrum in the 8-13 Hz range is low. This measured change in signal power spectrum is used to produce a control signal. The encephalolexianalyzer can be used to communicate either directly using Morse code, or via a cursor controlling a remote control; the encephalolexianalyzer can also be used to control other devices. The encephalolexianalyzer will be of great benefit to people with various handicaps and disabilities, and also has enormous commercial potential, as well as being an invaluable tool for studying the brain.

An empirical investigation on the forecasting ability of mallows model averaging in a macro economic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

This paper investigates the forecasting ability of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) by conducting an empirical analysis of five Asia countries, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and China's GDP growth rate. Results reveal that MMA has no noticeable differences in predictive ability compared to the general autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model (ARFIMA) and its predictive ability is sensitive to the effect of financial crisis. MMA could be an alternative forecasting method for samples without recent outliers such as financial crisis.

Osmium Atoms and Os2 Molecules Move Faster on Selenium-Doped Compared to Sulfur-Doped Boronic Graphenic Surfaces.

PubMed

Barry, Nicolas P E; Pitto-Barry, Anaïs; Tran, Johanna; Spencer, Simon E F; Johansen, Adam M; Sanchez, Ana M; Dove, Andrew P; O'Reilly, Rachel K; Deeth, Robert J; Beanland, Richard; Sadler, Peter J

2015-07-28

We deposited Os atoms on S- and Se-doped boronic graphenic surfaces by electron bombardment of micelles containing 16e complexes [Os(p-cymene)(1,2-dicarba-closo-dodecarborane-1,2-diselenate/dithiolate)] encapsulated in a triblock copolymer. The surfaces were characterized by energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX) analysis and electron energy loss spectroscopy of energy filtered TEM (EFTEM). Os atoms moved ca. 26× faster on the B/Se surface compared to the B/S surface (233 ± 34 pm·s(-1) versus 8.9 ± 1.9 pm·s(-1)). Os atoms formed dimers with an average Os-Os distance of 0.284 ± 0.077 nm on the B/Se surface and 0.243 ± 0.059 nm on B/S, close to that in metallic Os. The Os2 molecules moved 0.83× and 0.65× more slowly than single Os atoms on B/S and B/Se surfaces, respectively, and again markedly faster (ca. 20×) on the B/Se surface (151 ± 45 pm·s(-1) versus 7.4 ± 2.8 pm·s(-1)). Os atom motion did not follow Brownian motion and appears to involve anchoring sites, probably S and Se atoms. The ability to control the atomic motion of metal atoms and molecules on surfaces has potential for exploitation in nanodevices of the future.

Efficiency and multifractality analysis of CSI 300 based on multifractal detrending moving average algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Weijie; Dang, Yaoguo; Gu, Rongbao

2013-03-01

We apply the multifractal detrending moving average (MFDMA) to investigate and compare the efficiency and multifractality of 5-min high-frequency China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300). The results show that the CSI 300 market becomes closer to weak-form efficiency after the introduction of CSI 300 future. We find that the CSI 300 is featured by multifractality and there are less complexity and risk after the CSI 300 index future was introduced. With the shuffling, surrogating and removing extreme values procedures, we unveil that extreme events and fat-distribution are the main origin of multifractality. Besides, we discuss the knotting phenomena in multifractality, and find that the scaling range and the irregular fluctuations for large scales in the Fq(s) vs s plot can cause a knot.

Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2003-01-01

A simple method for monitoring the nearness and size of conventional cycle maximum for an ongoing sunspot cycle is examined. The method uses the observed maximum daily value and the maximum monthly mean value of international sunspot number and the maximum value of the 2-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number to effect the estimation. For cycle 23, a maximum daily value of 246, a maximum monthly mean of 170.1, and a maximum 2-mo moving average of 148.9 were each observed in July 2000. Taken together, these values strongly suggest that conventional maximum amplitude for cycle 23 would be approx. 124.5, occurring near July 2002 +/-5 mo, very close to the now well-established conventional maximum amplitude and occurrence date for cycle 23-120.8 in April 2000.

An algorithm for testing the efficient market hypothesis.

PubMed

Boboc, Ioana-Andreea; Dinică, Mihai-Cristian

2013-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the efficiency of EUR/USD market through the application of a trading system. The system uses a genetic algorithm based on technical analysis indicators such as Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Filter that gives buying and selling recommendations to investors. The algorithm optimizes the strategies by dynamically searching for parameters that improve profitability in the training period. The best sets of rules are then applied on the testing period. The results show inconsistency in finding a set of trading rules that performs well in both periods. Strategies that achieve very good returns in the training period show difficulty in returning positive results in the testing period, this being consistent with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).

An Algorithm for Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Boboc, Ioana-Andreea; Dinică, Mihai-Cristian

2013-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the efficiency of EUR/USD market through the application of a trading system. The system uses a genetic algorithm based on technical analysis indicators such as Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Filter that gives buying and selling recommendations to investors. The algorithm optimizes the strategies by dynamically searching for parameters that improve profitability in the training period. The best sets of rules are then applied on the testing period. The results show inconsistency in finding a set of trading rules that performs well in both periods. Strategies that achieve very good returns in the training period show difficulty in returning positive results in the testing period, this being consistent with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). PMID:24205148

Air quality at night markets in Taiwan.

PubMed

Zhao, Ping; Lin, Chi-Chi

2010-03-01

In Taiwan, there are more than 300 night markets and they have attracted more and more visitors in recent years. Air quality in night markets has become a public concern. To characterize the current air quality in night markets, four major night markets in Kaohsiung were selected for this study. The results of this study showed that the mean carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at fixed and moving sites in night markets ranged from 326 to 427 parts per million (ppm) during non-open hours and from 433 to 916 ppm during open hours. The average carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations at fixed and moving sites in night markets ranged from 0.2 to 2.8 ppm during non-open hours and from 2.1 to 14.1 ppm during open hours. The average 1-hr levels of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 microm (PM10) and less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) at fixed and moving sites in night markets were high, ranging from 186 to 451 microg/m3 and from 175 to 418 microg/m3, respectively. The levels of PM2.5 accounted for 80-97% of their respective PM10 concentrations. The average formaldehyde (HCHO) concentrations at fixed and moving sites in night markets ranged from 0 to 0.05 ppm during non-open hours and from 0.02 to 0.27 ppm during open hours. The average concentration of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was found in the range of 0.09 x 10(4) to 1.8 x 10(4) ng/m3. The total identified PAHs (TIPs) ranged from 7.8 x 10(1) to 20 x 10(1) ng/m3 during non-open hours and from 1.5 x 10(4) to 4.0 x 10(4) ng/m3 during open hours. Of the total analyzed PAHs, the low-molecular-weight PAHs (two to three rings) were the dominant species, corresponding to an average of 97% during non-open hours and 88% during open hours, whereas high-molecular-weight PAHs (four to six rings) represented 3 and 12% of the total detected PAHs in the gas phase during non-open and open hours, respectively.

Distributed Sensor Fusion for Scalar Field Mapping Using Mobile Sensor Networks.

PubMed

La, Hung Manh; Sheng, Weihua

2013-04-01

In this paper, autonomous mobile sensor networks are deployed to measure a scalar field and build its map. We develop a novel method for multiple mobile sensor nodes to build this map using noisy sensor measurements. Our method consists of two parts. First, we develop a distributed sensor fusion algorithm by integrating two different distributed consensus filters to achieve cooperative sensing among sensor nodes. This fusion algorithm has two phases. In the first phase, the weighted average consensus filter is developed, which allows each sensor node to find an estimate of the value of the scalar field at each time step. In the second phase, the average consensus filter is used to allow each sensor node to find a confidence of the estimate at each time step. The final estimate of the value of the scalar field is iteratively updated during the movement of the mobile sensors via weighted average. Second, we develop the distributed flocking-control algorithm to drive the mobile sensors to form a network and track the virtual leader moving along the field when only a small subset of the mobile sensors know the information of the leader. Experimental results are provided to demonstrate our proposed algorithms.

E-2633

NASA Image and Video Library

1956-10-12

A photo of the control stick used on the Iron Cross Attitude Simulator. Although it resembled today's desktop computer flight sticks, its operation was different. As with a standard control stick, moving it back and forth raised and lowered the nose resulting in changes in pitch. Moving the stick to the right or left raised or lowered the wing, resulted in changes in roll. This control stick had a third axis, not found in standard control sticks. Twisting the stick to the right or left caused the airplane's nose to move horizontally in the same direction, resulting in changes in yaw.

The Effects of Military Change of Station Moves on Spousal Earnings

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

within the literature on tied migration, military wives are an ideal “ quasi - experimental group , because such women represent perhaps the ideal typical...moves (one or two years prior to the current year) as part of the control group . Table 5.3 reports results from an extended model that also controls ...for effects of moves one or two years earlier, removing those spouse-year observations from the control group . Among spouses who ever appear in our

Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001-2011.

PubMed

Wakefield, Melanie A; Coomber, Kerri; Durkin, Sarah J; Scollo, Michelle; Bayly, Megan; Spittal, Matthew J; Simpson, Julie A; Hill, David

2014-06-01

To determine the impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on smoking prevalence in Australian adults. Data for calculating the average monthly prevalence of smoking between January 2001 and June 2011 were obtained via structured interviews of randomly sampled adults aged 18 years or older from Australia's five largest capital cities (monthly mean number of adults interviewed: 2375). The influence on smoking prevalence was estimated for increased tobacco taxes; strengthened smoke-free laws; increased monthly population exposure to televised tobacco control mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical company advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), using gross ratings points; monthly sales of NRT, bupropion and varenicline; and introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to examine the influence of these interventions on smoking prevalence. The mean smoking prevalence for the study period was 19.9% (standard deviation: 2.0%), with a drop from 23.6% (in January 2001) to 17.3% (in June 2011). The best-fitting model showed that stronger smoke-free laws, tobacco price increases and greater exposure to mass media campaigns independently explained 76% of the decrease in smoking prevalence from February 2002 to June 2011. Increased tobacco taxation, more comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased investment in mass media campaigns played a substantial role in reducing smoking prevalence among Australian adults between 2001 and 2011.

Oxygen-depleted zones inside reproductive structures of Brassicaceae: implications for oxygen control of seed development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porterfield, D. M.; Kuang, A.; Smith, P. J.; Crispi, M. L.; Musgrave, M. E.

1999-01-01

Growth of Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynh. in decreasing oxygen partial pressures revealed a linear decrease in seed production below 15 kPa, with a complete absence of seed production at 2.5 kPa oxygen. This control of plant reproduction by oxygen had previously been attributed to an oxygen effect on the partitioning between vegetative and reproductive growth. However, plants grown in a series of decreasing oxygen concentrations produced progressively smaller embryos that had stopped developing at progressively younger stages, suggesting instead that their growth is limited by oxygen. Internal oxygen concentrations of buds, pistils, and developing siliques of Brassica rapa L. and siliques of Arabidopsis were measured using a small-diameter glass electrode that was moved into the structures using a micromanipulator. Oxygen partial pressures were found to be lowest in the developing perianth (11.1 kPa) and pistils (15.2 kPa) of the unopened buds. Pollination reduced oxygen concentration inside the pistils by 3 kPa after just 24 h. Inside Brassica silique locules, partial pressures of oxygen averaged 12.2 kPa in darkness, and increased linearly with increasing light levels to 16.2 kPa. Measurements inside Arabidopsis siliques averaged 6.1 kPa in the dark and rose to 12.2 kPa with light. Hypoxia in these microenvironments is postulated to be the point of control of plant reproduction by oxygen.

Rate of Oviposition by Culex Quinquefasciatus in San Antonio, Texas, During Three Years

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

autoregression and zero orders of integration and moving average ( ARIMA (l,O,O)). This model was chosen initially because rainfall ap- peared to...have no trend requiring integration and no obvious requirement for a moving aver- age component (i.e., no regular periodicity). This ARIMA model was...Say in both the northern and southern hem- ispheres exposes this species to a variety of climatic challenges to its survival. It is able to adjust

Seminar Proceedings Implementation of Nonstructural Measures Held at Ft. Belvoir, Virginia on 15, 16 and 17 November 1983

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-11-01

S-Approximate Household inventory item average chance of being moved (%) High Electric toaster Vacuum cleaner 80 Colour television Medium Record...most rtadily moved are small items of electrical. I equipment and valuable items such as colour televisions. However, many respondents reported that...WESSEX WATER AUTHORITY, "Somerset Land Drainage District, land drainage sur ey report", Wessex Water Authority, Bridgwater, England, 1979. .34 "* • I.U

A wirelessly-powered homecage with animal behavior analysis and closed-loop power control.

PubMed

Yaoyao Jia; Zheyuan Wang; Canales, Daniel; Tinkler, Morgan; Chia-Chun Hsu; Madsen, Teresa E; Mirbozorgi, S Abdollah; Rainnie, Donald; Ghovanloo, Maysam

2016-08-01

This paper presents a new EnerCage-homecage system, EnerCage-HC2, for longitudinal electrophysiology data acquisition experiments on small freely moving animal subjects, such as rodents. EnerCage-HC2 is equipped with multi-coil wireless power transmission (WPT), closed-loop power control, bidirectional data communication via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE), and Microsoft Kinect® based animal behavior tracking and analysis. The EnerCage-HC2 achieves a homogeneous power transfer efficiency (PTE) of 14% on average, with ~42 mW power delivered to the load (PDL) at a nominal height of 7 cm by the closed-loop power control mechanism. The Microsoft Kinect® behavioral analysis algorithm can not only track the animal position in real-time but also classify 5 different types of rodent behaviors: standstill, walking, grooming, rearing, and rotating. A proof-of-concept in vivo experiment was conducted on two awake freely behaving rats while successfully operating a one-channel stimulator and generating an ethogram.

Plans, Patterns, and Move Categories Guiding a Highly Selective Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trippen, Gerhard

In this paper we present our ideas for an Arimaa-playing program (also called a bot) that uses plans and pattern matching to guide a highly selective search. We restrict move generation to moves in certain move categories to reduce the number of moves considered by the bot significantly. Arimaa is a modern board game that can be played with a standard Chess set. However, the rules of the game are not at all like those of Chess. Furthermore, Arimaa was designed to be as simple and intuitive as possible for humans, yet challenging for computers. While all established Arimaa bots use alpha-beta search with a variety of pruning techniques and other heuristics ending in an extensive positional leaf node evaluation, our new bot, Rat, starts with a positional evaluation of the current position. Based on features found in the current position - supported by pattern matching using a directed position graph - our bot Rat decides which of a given set of plans to follow. The plan then dictates what types of moves can be chosen. This is another major difference from bots that generate "all" possible moves for a particular position. Rat is only allowed to generate moves that belong to certain categories. Leaf nodes are evaluated only by a straightforward material evaluation to help avoid moves that lose material. This highly selective search looks, on average, at only 5 moves out of 5,000 to over 40,000 possible moves in a middle game position.

[Application of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model in predicting the mumps incidence].

PubMed

Hui, Shisheng; Chen, Lizhang; Liu, Fuqiang; Ouyang, Yanhao

2015-12-01

To establish multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) according to mumps disease incidence in Hunan province, and to predict the mumps incidence from May 2015 to April 2016 in Hunan province by the model. The data were downloaded from "Disease Surveillance Information Reporting Management System" in China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The monthly incidence of mumps in Hunan province was collected from January 2004 to April 2015 according to the onset date, including clinical diagnosis and laboratory confirmed cases. The predictive analysis method was the ARIMA model in SPSS 18.0 software, the ARIMA model was established on the monthly incidence of mumps from January 2004 to April 2014, and the date from May 2014 to April 2015 was used as the testing sample, Box-Ljung Q test was used to test the residual of the selected model. Finally, the monthly incidence of mumps from May 2015 to April 2016 was predicted by the model. The peak months of the mumps incidence were May to July every year, and the secondary peak months were November to January of the following year, during January 2004 to April 2014 in Hunan province. After the data sequence was handled by smooth sequence, model identification, establishment and diagnosis, the ARIMA(2,1,1) × (0,1,1)(12) was established, Box-Ljung Q test found, Q=8.40, P=0.868, the residual sequence was white noise, the established model to the data information extraction was complete, the model was reasonable. The R(2) value of the model fitting degree was 0.871, and the value of BIC was -1.646, while the average absolute error of the predicted value and the actual value was 0.025/100 000, the average relative error was 13.004%. The relative error of the model for the prediction of the mumps incidence in Hunan province was small, and the predicting results were reliable. Using the ARIMA(2,1,1) ×(0,1,1)(12) model to predict the mumps incidence from April 2016 to May 2015 in Hunan province, the peak months of the mumps incidence were May to July, and the secondary peak months were November to January of the following year, the incidence of the peak month was close to the same period. The ARIMA(2,1,1)×(0,1,1)(12) model is well fitted the trend of the mumps disease incidence in Hunan province, it has some practical value for the prevention and control of the disease.

Effectiveness of an Integrated Approach to HIV and Hypertension Care in Rural South Africa: Controlled Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

PubMed

Ameh, Soter; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin; Musenge, Eustasius; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen; Gómez-Olivé, Francesc Xavier

2017-08-01

South Africa faces a dual burden of HIV/AIDS and noncommunicable diseases. In 2011, a pilot integrated chronic disease management (ICDM) model was introduced by the National Health Department into selected primary health care (PHC) facilities. The objective of this study was to assess the effectiveness of the ICDM model in controlling patients' CD4 counts (>350 cells/mm) and blood pressure [BP (<140/90 mm Hg)] in PHC facilities in the Bushbuckridge municipality, South Africa. A controlled interrupted time-series study was conducted using the data from patients' clinical records collected multiple times before and after the ICDM model was initiated in PHC facilities in Bushbuckridge. Patients ≥18 years were recruited by proportionate sampling from the pilot (n = 435) and comparing (n = 443) PHC facilities from 2011 to 2013. Health outcomes for patients were retrieved from facility records for 30 months. We performed controlled segmented regression to model the monthly averages of individuals' propensity scores using autoregressive moving average model at 5% significance level. The pilot facilities had 6% greater likelihood of controlling patients' CD4 counts than the comparison facilities (coefficient = 0.057; 95% confidence interval: 0.056 to 0.058; P < 0.001). Compared with the comparison facilities, the pilot facilities had 1.0% greater likelihood of controlling patients' BP (coefficient = 0.010; 95% confidence interval: 0.003 to 0.016; P = 0.002). Application of the model had a small effect in controlling patients' CD4 counts and BP, but showed no overall clinical benefit for the patients; hence, the need to more extensively leverage the HIV program for hypertension treatment.

Central l-proline attenuates stress-induced dopamine and serotonin metabolism in the chick forebrain.

PubMed

Hamasu, Kousuke; Shigemi, Kazutaka; Kabuki, Yusuke; Tomonaga, Shozo; Denbow, D Michael; Furuse, Mitsuhiro

2009-08-21

Using microdialysis, we investigated the effect of l-proline on monoamine release in the medio-rostral neostriatum/hyperstriatum ventrale (MNH) of freely moving and restricted chicks. A 30 min handling-stress resulted in a significant increase in extracellular homovallinic acid (HVA), a dopamine metabolite, and 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), a serotonin metabolite, in the MNH. l-Proline, perfused through the microdialysis probe into the MNH during the stressed condition, significantly attenuated the average dialysate concentration of HVA produced by handling-stress. Handling-stress resulted in a significant increase in 5-HIAA levels in the control group, which were attenuated by profusion with l-proline. l-Proline did not significantly modify basal concentrations of HVA or 5-HIAA in the MNH during control conditions. These results show that perfusion of l-proline modified the turnover/metabolism of dopamine and serotonin in the MNH caused by handling-stress.

Static and dynamic balance performance in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture.

PubMed

Wang, Ling-Yi; Liaw, Mei-Yun; Huang, Yu-Chi; Lau, Yiu-Chung; Leong, Chau-Peng; Pong, Ya-Ping; Chen, Chia-Lin

2013-01-01

Patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) have postural changes and increased risk of falling. The aim of this study is to compare balance characteristics between patients with OVCF and healthy control subjects. Patients with severe OVCF and control subjects underwent computerised dynamic posturography (CDP) in this case-control study. Forty-seven OVCF patients and 45 controls were recruited. Compared with the control group, the OVCF group had significantly decreased average stability; maximal stability under the `eye open with swayed support surface' (CDP subtest 4) and 'eye closed with swayed support surface' conditions (subtest 5); and decreased ankle strategy during subtests 4 and 5 and under the `swayed vision with swayed support surface' condition (subtest 6). The OVCF group fell more frequently during subtests 5 and 6 and had longer overall reaction time and longer reaction time when moving backward during the directional control test. OVCF patients had poorer static and dynamic balance performance compared with normal control. They had decreased postural stability and ankle strategy with increased fall frequency on a swayed surface; they also had longer reaction times overall and in the backward direction. Therefore, we suggest balance rehabilitation for patients with OVCF to prevent fall.

A Generation at Risk: When the Baby Boomers Reach Golden Pond.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butler, Robert N.

The 20th century has seen average life expectancy in the United States move from under 50 years to over 70 years. Coupled with this increase in average life expectancy is the aging of the 76.4 million persons born between 1946 and 1964. As they approach retirement, these baby-boomers will have to balance their own needs with those of living…

Comparison of 3-D Multi-Lag Cross-Correlation and Speckle Brightness Aberration Correction Algorithms on Static and Moving Targets

PubMed Central

Ivancevich, Nikolas M.; Dahl, Jeremy J.; Smith, Stephen W.

2010-01-01

Phase correction has the potential to increase the image quality of 3-D ultrasound, especially transcranial ultrasound. We implemented and compared 2 algorithms for aberration correction, multi-lag cross-correlation and speckle brightness, using static and moving targets. We corrected three 75-ns rms electronic aberrators with full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) auto-correlation lengths of 1.35, 2.7, and 5.4 mm. Cross-correlation proved the better algorithm at 2.7 and 5.4 mm correlation lengths (P < 0.05). Static cross-correlation performed better than moving-target cross-correlation at the 2.7 mm correlation length (P < 0.05). Finally, we compared the static and moving-target cross-correlation on a flow phantom with a skull casting aberrator. Using signal from static targets, the correction resulted in an average contrast increase of 22.2%, compared with 13.2% using signal from moving targets. The contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) increased by 20.5% and 12.8% using static and moving targets, respectively. Doppler signal strength increased by 5.6% and 4.9% for the static and moving-targets methods, respectively. PMID:19942503

Comparison of 3-D multi-lag cross- correlation and speckle brightness aberration correction algorithms on static and moving targets.

PubMed

Ivancevich, Nikolas M; Dahl, Jeremy J; Smith, Stephen W

2009-10-01

Phase correction has the potential to increase the image quality of 3-D ultrasound, especially transcranial ultrasound. We implemented and compared 2 algorithms for aberration correction, multi-lag cross-correlation and speckle brightness, using static and moving targets. We corrected three 75-ns rms electronic aberrators with full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) auto-correlation lengths of 1.35, 2.7, and 5.4 mm. Cross-correlation proved the better algorithm at 2.7 and 5.4 mm correlation lengths (P < 0.05). Static cross-correlation performed better than moving-target cross-correlation at the 2.7 mm correlation length (P < 0.05). Finally, we compared the static and moving-target cross-correlation on a flow phantom with a skull casting aberrator. Using signal from static targets, the correction resulted in an average contrast increase of 22.2%, compared with 13.2% using signal from moving targets. The contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) increased by 20.5% and 12.8% using static and moving targets, respectively. Doppler signal strength increased by 5.6% and 4.9% for the static and moving-targets methods, respectively.

Recent Enhancements To The FUN3D Flow Solver For Moving-Mesh Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T,; Thomas, James L.

2009-01-01

An unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver for unstructured grids has been extended to handle general mesh movement involving rigid, deforming, and overset meshes. Mesh deformation is achieved through analogy to elastic media by solving the linear elasticity equations. A general method for specifying the motion of moving bodies within the mesh has been implemented that allows for inherited motion through parent-child relationships, enabling simulations involving multiple moving bodies. Several example calculations are shown to illustrate the range of potential applications. For problems in which an isolated body is rotating with a fixed rate, a noninertial reference-frame formulation is available. An example calculation for a tilt-wing rotor is used to demonstrate that the time-dependent moving grid and noninertial formulations produce the same results in the limit of zero time-step size.

Coordination of multiple robot arms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barker, L. K.; Soloway, D.

1987-01-01

Kinematic resolved-rate control from one robot arm is extended to the coordinated control of multiple robot arms in the movement of an object. The structure supports the general movement of one axis system (moving reference frame) with respect to another axis system (control reference frame) by one or more robot arms. The grippers of the robot arms do not have to be parallel or at any pre-disposed positions on the object. For multiarm control, the operator chooses the same moving and control reference frames for each of the robot arms. Consequently, each arm then moves as though it were carrying out the commanded motions by itself.

A Low-Power Wireless Image Sensor Node with Noise-Robust Moving Object Detection and a Region-of-Interest Based Rate Controller

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

A Low- Power Wireless Image Sensor Node with Noise-Robust Moving Object Detection and a Region-of-Interest Based Rate Controller Jong Hwan Ko...Atlanta, GA 30332 USA Contact Author Email: jonghwan.ko@gatech.edu Abstract: This paper presents a low- power wireless image sensor node for...present a low- power wireless image sensor node with a noise-robust moving object detection and region-of-interest based rate controller [Fig. 1]. The

Breathing-motion-compensated robotic guided stereotactic body radiation therapy : Patterns of failure analysis.

PubMed

Stera, Susanne; Balermpas, Panagiotis; Chan, Mark K H; Huttenlocher, Stefan; Wurster, Stefan; Keller, Christian; Imhoff, Detlef; Rades, Dirk; Dunst, Jürgen; Rödel, Claus; Hildebrandt, Guido; Blanck, Oliver

2018-02-01

We retrospectively evaluated the patterns of failure for robotic guided real-time breathing-motion-compensated (BMC) stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in the treatment of tumors in moving organs. Between 2011 and 2016, a total of 198 patients with 280 lung, liver, and abdominal tumors were treated with BMC-SBRT. The median gross tumor volume (GTV) was 12.3 cc (0.1-372.0 cc). Medians of mean GTV BED α/β = 10   Gy (BED = biological effective dose) was 148.5 Gy 10 (31.5-233.3 Gy 10 ) and prescribed planning target volume (PTV) BED α/β = 10   Gy was 89.7 Gy 10 (28.8-151.2 Gy 10 ), respectively. We analyzed overall survival (OS) and local control (LC) based on various factors, including BEDs with α/β ratios of 15 Gy (lung metastases), 21 Gy (primary lung tumors), and 27 Gy (liver metastases). Median follow-up was 10.4 months (2.0-59.0 months). The 2‑year actuarial LC was 100 and 86.4% for primary early and advanced stage lung tumors, respectively, 100% for lung metastases, 82.2% for liver metastases, and 90% for extrapulmonary extrahepatic metastases. The 2‑year OS rate was 47.9% for all patients. In uni- and multivariate analysis, comparatively lower PTV prescription dose (equivalence of 3 × 12-13 Gy) and higher average GTV dose (equivalence of 3 × 18 Gy) to current practice were significantly associated with LC. For OS, Karnofsky performance score (100%), gender (female), and SBRT without simultaneous chemotherapy were significant prognostic factors. Grade 3 side effects were rare (0.5%). Robotic guided BMC-SBRT can be considered a safe and effective treatment for solid tumors in moving organs. To reach sufficient local control rates, high average GTV doses are necessary. Further prospective studies are warranted to evaluate these points.

Interrupted time series analysis of children’s blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York

PubMed Central

Shao, Liyang; Zhang, Lianjun; Zhen, Zhen

2017-01-01

Children’s blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children’s blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children’s BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children’s blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children’s BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77μg/dL to 3.94μg/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children’s blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children’s BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis. PMID:28182688

Interrupted time series analysis of children's blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York.

PubMed

Shao, Liyang; Zhang, Lianjun; Zhen, Zhen

2017-01-01

Children's blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children's blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children's BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children's blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children's BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77μg/dL to 3.94μg/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children's blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children's BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis.

Associations between ozone, PM2.5, and four pollen types on emergency department pediatric asthma events during the warm season in New Jersey: a case-crossover study.

PubMed

Gleason, Jessie A; Bielory, Leonard; Fagliano, Jerald A

2014-07-01

Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases among school-aged children in the United States. Environmental respiratory irritants exacerbate asthma among children. Understanding the impact of a variety of known and biologically plausible environmental irritants and triggers among children in New Jersey - ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), tree pollen, weed pollen, grass pollen and ragweed - would allow for informed public health interventions. Time-stratified case-crossover design was used to study the transient impact of ozone, PM2.5 and pollen on the acute onset of pediatric asthma. Daily emergency department visits were obtained for children aged 3-17 years with a primary diagnosis of asthma during the warm season (April through September), 2004-2007 (inclusive). Bi-directional control sampling was used to select two control periods for each case for a total of 65,562 inclusion days. Since the period of exposure prior to emergency department visit may be the most clinically relevant, lag exposures were investigated (same day (lag0), 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 as well as 3-day and 5-day moving averages). Multivariable conditional logistic regression controlling for holiday, school-in-session indicator, and 3-day moving average for temperature and relative humidity was used to examine the associations. Odds ratios are based on interquartile range (IQR) increases or 10 unit increases when IQR ranges were narrow. Single-pollutant models as well as multipollutant models were examined. Stratification on gender, race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status was explored. The associations with ozone and PM2.5 were strongest on the same day (lag0) of the emergency department visit (RR IQR=1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06) and (RR IQR=1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04), respectively, with a decreasing lag effect. Tree and weed pollen were associated with pediatric ED visits; the largest magnitudes of association was with the 5-day average (RR IQR=1.23, 95% CI 1.21-1.25) and (RR 10=1.13, 95% CI 1.12-1.14), respectively. Grass pollen was only minimally associated with the outcome while ragweed had a negative association. The ambient air pollutant ozone is associated with increases in pediatric emergency department asthma visits during the warm weather season. The different pollen types showed different associations with the outcome. High levels of tree pollen appear to be an important risk factor in asthma exacerbations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CROSS-DISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: Effect of Rolling Massage on Particle Moving Behaviour in Blood Vessels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Hou-Hui; Fan, Li-Juan; Yang, Xiao-Feng; Chen, Yan-Yan

2008-09-01

The rolling massage manipulation is a classic Chinese massage, which is expected to eliminate many diseases. Here the effect of the rolling massage on the particle moving property in the blood vessels under the rolling massage manipulation is studied by the lattice Boltzmann simulation. The simulation results show that the particle moving behaviour depends on the rolling velocity, the distance between particle position and rolling position. The average values, including particle translational velocity and angular velocity, increase as the rolling velocity increases almost linearly. The result is helpful to understand the mechanism of the massage and develop the rolling techniques.

A freely-moving monkey treadmill model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Justin D.; Nuyujukian, Paul; Freifeld, Oren; Gao, Hua; Walker, Ross; Ryu, Stephen I.; Meng, Teresa H.; Murmann, Boris; Black, Michael J.; Shenoy, Krishna V.

2014-08-01

Objective. Motor neuroscience and brain-machine interface (BMI) design is based on examining how the brain controls voluntary movement, typically by recording neural activity and behavior from animal models. Recording technologies used with these animal models have traditionally limited the range of behaviors that can be studied, and thus the generality of science and engineering research. We aim to design a freely-moving animal model using neural and behavioral recording technologies that do not constrain movement. Approach. We have established a freely-moving rhesus monkey model employing technology that transmits neural activity from an intracortical array using a head-mounted device and records behavior through computer vision using markerless motion capture. We demonstrate the flexibility and utility of this new monkey model, including the first recordings from motor cortex while rhesus monkeys walk quadrupedally on a treadmill. Main results. Using this monkey model, we show that multi-unit threshold-crossing neural activity encodes the phase of walking and that the average firing rate of the threshold crossings covaries with the speed of individual steps. On a population level, we find that neural state-space trajectories of walking at different speeds have similar rotational dynamics in some dimensions that evolve at the step rate of walking, yet robustly separate by speed in other state-space dimensions. Significance. Freely-moving animal models may allow neuroscientists to examine a wider range of behaviors and can provide a flexible experimental paradigm for examining the neural mechanisms that underlie movement generation across behaviors and environments. For BMIs, freely-moving animal models have the potential to aid prosthetic design by examining how neural encoding changes with posture, environment and other real-world context changes. Understanding this new realm of behavior in more naturalistic settings is essential for overall progress of basic motor neuroscience and for the successful translation of BMIs to people with paralysis.

Neonatal heart rate prediction.

PubMed

Abdel-Rahman, Yumna; Jeremic, Aleksander; Tan, Kenneth

2009-01-01

Technological advances have caused a decrease in the number of infant deaths. Pre-term infants now have a substantially increased chance of survival. One of the mechanisms that is vital to saving the lives of these infants is continuous monitoring and early diagnosis. With continuous monitoring huge amounts of data are collected with so much information embedded in them. By using statistical analysis this information can be extracted and used to aid diagnosis and to understand development. In this study we have a large dataset containing over 180 pre-term infants whose heart rates were recorded over the length of their stay in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). We test two types of models, empirical bayesian and autoregressive moving average. We then attempt to predict future values. The autoregressive moving average model showed better results but required more computation.

Development of a Robust Identifier for NPPs Transients Combining ARIMA Model and EBP Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshkbar-Bakhshayesh, Khalil; Ghofrani, Mohammad B.

2014-08-01

This study introduces a novel identification method for recognition of nuclear power plants (NPPs) transients by combining the autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model and the neural network with error backpropagation (EBP) learning algorithm. The proposed method consists of three steps. First, an EBP based identifier is adopted to distinguish the plant normal states from the faulty ones. In the second step, ARIMA models use integrated (I) process to convert non-stationary data of the selected variables into stationary ones. Subsequently, ARIMA processes, including autoregressive (AR), moving-average (MA), or autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) are used to forecast time series of the selected plant variables. In the third step, for identification the type of transients, the forecasted time series are fed to the modular identifier which has been developed using the latest advances of EBP learning algorithm. Bushehr nuclear power plant (BNPP) transients are probed to analyze the ability of the proposed identifier. Recognition of transient is based on similarity of its statistical properties to the reference one, rather than the values of input patterns. More robustness against noisy data and improvement balance between memorization and generalization are salient advantages of the proposed identifier. Reduction of false identification, sole dependency of identification on the sign of each output signal, selection of the plant variables for transients training independent of each other, and extendibility for identification of more transients without unfavorable effects are other merits of the proposed identifier.

Structural equation modeling of the inflammatory response to traffic air pollution

PubMed Central

Baja, Emmanuel S.; Schwartz, Joel D.; Coull, Brent A.; Wellenius, Gregory A.; Vokonas, Pantel S.; Suh, Helen H.

2015-01-01

Several epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results on the effect of traffic-related pollutants on markers of inflammation. In a Bayesian framework, we examined the effect of traffic pollution on inflammation using structural equation models (SEMs). We studied measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), and soluble intracellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) for 749 elderly men from the Normative Aging Study. Using repeated measures SEMs, we fit a latent variable for traffic pollution that is reflected by levels of black carbon, carbon monoxide, nitrogen monoxide and nitrogen dioxide to estimate its effect on a latent variable for inflammation that included sICAM-1, sVCAM-1 and CRP. Exposure periods were assessed using 1-, 2-, 3-, 7-, 14- and 30-day moving averages previsit. We compared our findings using SEMs with those obtained using linear mixed models. Traffic pollution was related to increased inflammation for 3-, 7-, 14- and 30-day exposure periods. An inter-quartile range increase in traffic pollution was associated with a 2.3% (95% posterior interval (PI): 0.0–4.7%) increase in inflammation for the 3-day moving average, with the most significant association observed for the 30-day moving average (23.9%; 95% PI: 13.9–36.7%). Traffic pollution adversely impacts inflammation in the elderly. SEMs in a Bayesian framework can comprehensively incorporate multiple pollutants and health outcomes simultaneously in air pollution–cardiovascular epidemiological studies. PMID:23232970

Learning curves for single incision and conventional laparoscopic right hemicolectomy: a multidimensional analysis.

PubMed

Park, Yoonah; Yong, Yuen Geng; Yun, Seong Hyeon; Jung, Kyung Uk; Huh, Jung Wook; Cho, Yong Beom; Kim, Hee Cheol; Lee, Woo Yong; Chun, Ho-Kyung

2015-05-01

This study aimed to compare the learning curves and early postoperative outcomes for conventional laparoscopic (CL) and single incision laparoscopic (SIL) right hemicolectomy (RHC). This retrospective study included the initial 35 cases in each group. Learning curves were evaluated by the moving average of operative time, mean operative time of every five consecutive cases, and cumulative sum (CUSUM) analysis. The learning phase was considered overcome when the moving average of operative times reached a plateau, and when the mean operative time of every five consecutive cases reached a low point and subsequently did not vary by more than 30 minutes. Six patients with missing data in the CL RHC group were excluded from the analyses. According to the mean operative time of every five consecutive cases, learning phase of SIL and CL RHC was completed between 26 and 30 cases, and 16 and 20 cases, respectively. Moving average analysis revealed that approximately 31 (SIL) and 25 (CL) cases were needed to complete the learning phase, respectively. CUSUM analysis demonstrated that 10 (SIL) and two (CL) cases were required to reach a steady state of complication-free performance, respectively. Postoperative complications rate was higher in SIL than in CL group, but the difference was not statistically significant (17.1% vs. 3.4%). The learning phase of SIL RHC is longer than that of CL RHC. Early oncological outcomes of both techniques were comparable. However, SIL RHC had a statistically insignificant higher complication rate than CL RHC during the learning phase.

An Estimate of the Likelihood for a Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruption Within the Present Decade (2000-2009)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Franklin, M. Rose (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (i.e., those having a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, equal to 4 or larger) per decade is found to span 2-11, with 96% located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, A two-point moving average of the time series has higher values since the 1860s than before, measuring 8.00 in the 1910s (the highest value) and measuring 6.50 in the 1980s, the highest since the 18 1 0s' peak. On the basis of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that the two-point moving average for the 1990s will measure about 6.50 +/- 1.00, implying that about 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially, those having VEI equal to 5 or larger) nearly always have been associated with episodes of short-term global cooling, the occurrence of even one could ameliorate the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more VEI equal to 4 or larger events occurring within the next ten years is >99%, while it is about 49% for VEI equal to 5 or larger events and 18% for VEI equal to 6 or larger events. Hence, the likelihood that a, climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next 10 years appears reasonably high.

LPV Modeling and Control for Active Flutter Suppression of a Smart Airfoil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hajjar, Ali M. H.; Al-Jiboory, Ali Khudhair; Swei, Sean Shan-Min; Zhu, Guoming

2018-01-01

In this paper, a novel technique of linear parameter varying (LPV) modeling and control of a smart airfoil for active flutter suppression is proposed, where the smart airfoil has a groove along its chord and contains a moving mass that is used to control the airfoil pitching and plunging motions. The new LPV modeling technique is proposed that uses mass position as a scheduling parameter to describe the physical constraint of the moving mass, in addition the hard constraint at the boundaries is realized by proper selection of the parameter varying function. Therefore, the position of the moving mass and the free stream airspeed are considered the scheduling parameters in the study. A state-feedback based LPV gain-scheduling controller with guaranteed H infinity performance is presented by utilizing the dynamics of the moving mass as scheduling parameter at a given airspeed. The numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed LPV control architecture by significantly improving the performance while reducing the control effort.

Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: A case study in endemic districts of Bhutan

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX. Methods This study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month. Results It was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009 and 67 to 149 cases in 2010, where population in 2009 was 285,375 and the expected population of 2010 to be 289,085. The ARIMAX model of monthly cases and climatic factors showed considerable variations among the different districts. In general, the mean maximum temperature lagged at one month was a strong positive predictor of an increased malaria cases for four districts. The monthly number of cases of the previous month was also a significant predictor in one district, whereas no variable could predict malaria cases for two districts. Conclusions The ARIMA models of time-series analysis were useful in forecasting the number of cases in the endemic areas of Bhutan. There was no consistency in the predictors of malaria cases when using ARIMAX model with selected lag times and climatic predictors. The ARIMA forecasting models could be employed for planning and managing malaria prevention and control programme in Bhutan. PMID:20813066

Assessing the impacts of Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol pricing regulations on alcohol-related crime.

PubMed

Stockwell, Tim; Zhao, Jinhui; Sherk, Adam; Callaghan, Russell C; Macdonald, Scott; Gatley, Jodi

2017-07-01

Saskatchewan's introduction in April 2010 of minimum prices graded by alcohol strength led to an average minimum price increase of 9.1% per Canadian standard drink (=13.45 g ethanol). This increase was shown to be associated with reduced consumption and switching to lower alcohol content beverages. Police also informally reported marked reductions in night-time alcohol-related crime. This study aims to assess the impacts of changes to Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol-pricing regulations between 2008 and 2012 on selected crime events often related to alcohol use. Data were obtained from Canada's Uniform Crime Reporting Survey. Auto-regressive integrated moving average time series models were used to test immediate and lagged associations between minimum price increases and rates of night-time and police identified alcohol-related crimes. Controls were included for simultaneous crime rates in the neighbouring province of Alberta, economic variables, linear trend, seasonality and autoregressive and/or moving-average effects. The introduction of increased minimum-alcohol prices was associated with an abrupt decrease in night-time alcohol-related traffic offences for men (-8.0%, P < 0.001), but not women. No significant immediate changes were observed for non-alcohol-related driving offences, disorderly conduct or violence. Significant monthly lagged effects were observed for violent offences (-19.7% at month 4 to -18.2% at month 6), which broadly corresponded to lagged effects in on-premise alcohol sales. Increased minimum alcohol prices may contribute to reductions in alcohol-related traffic-related and violent crimes perpetrated by men. Observed lagged effects for violent incidents may be due to a delay in bars passing on increased prices to their customers, perhaps because of inventory stockpiling. [Stockwell T, Zhao J, Sherk A, Callaghan RC, Macdonald S, Gatley J. Assessing the impacts of Saskatchewan's minimum alcohol pricing regulations on alcohol-related crime. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:492-501]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Assessment of gliosis around moveable implants in the brain

PubMed Central

Stice, Paula

2010-01-01

Repositioning microelectrodes post-implantation is emerging as a promising approach to achieve long-term reliability in single neuronal recordings. The main goal of this study was to (a) assess glial reaction in response to movement of microelectrodes in the brain post-implantation and (b) determine an optimal window of time post-implantation when movement of microelectrodes within the brain would result in minimal glial reaction. Eleven Sprague-Dawley rats were implanted with two microelectrodes each that could be moved in vivo post-implantation. Three cohorts were investigated: (1) microelectrode moved at day 2 (n = 4 animals), (2) microelectrode moved at day 14 (n = 5 animals) and (3) microelectrode moved at day 28 (n = 2 animals). Histological evaluation was performed in cohorts 1–3 at four-week post-movement (30 days, 42 days and 56 days post-implantation, respectively). In addition, five control animals were implanted with microelectrodes that were not moved. Control animals were implanted for (1) 30 days (n = 1), (2) 42 days (n = 2) and (3) 56 days (n = 2) prior to histological evaluation. Quantitative assessment of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) around the tip of the microelectrodes demonstrated that GFAP levels were similar around microelectrodes moved at day 2 when compared to the 30-day controls. However, GFAP expression levels around microelectrode tips that moved at day 14 and day 28 were significantly less than those around control microelectrodes implanted for 42 and 56 days, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that moving microelectrodes after implantation is a viable strategy that does not result in any additional damage to brain tissue. Further, moving the microelectrode downwards after 14 days of implantation may actually reduce the levels of GFAP expression around the tips of the microelectrodes in the long term. PMID:19556680

Forecasting and prediction of scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, Algeria, using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model.

PubMed

Selmane, Schehrazad; L'Hadj, Mohamed

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were to highlight some epidemiological aspects of scorpion envenomations, to analyse and interpret the available data for Biskra province, Algeria, and to develop a forecasting model for scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, which records the highest number of scorpion stings in Algeria. In addition to analysing the epidemiological profile of scorpion stings that occurred throughout the year 2013, we used the Box-Jenkins approach to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the monthly recorded scorpion sting cases in Biskra from 2000 to 2012. The epidemiological analysis revealed that scorpion stings were reported continuously throughout the year, with peaks in the summer months. The most affected age group was 15 to 49 years old, with a male predominance. The most prone human body areas were the upper and lower limbs. The majority of cases (95.9%) were classified as mild envenomations. The time series analysis showed that a (5,1,0)×(0,1,1) 12 SARIMA model offered the best fit to the scorpion sting surveillance data. This model was used to predict scorpion sting cases for the year 2013, and the fitted data showed considerable agreement with the actual data. SARIMA models are useful for monitoring scorpion sting cases, and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future scorpion sting cases. This knowledge is helpful in predicting whether an unusual situation is developing or not, and could therefore assist decision-makers in strengthening the province's prevention and control measures and in initiating rapid response measures.

Substorm-related plasma sheet motions as determined from differential timing of plasma changes at the ISEE satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbes, T. G.; Hones, E. W., Jr.; Bame, S. J.; Asbridge, J. R.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Russell, C. T.

1981-01-01

From an ISEE survey of substorm dropouts and recoveries during the period February 5 to May 25, 1978, 66 timing events observed by the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory/Max-Planck-Institut Fast Plasma Experiments were studied in detail. Near substorm onset, both the average timing velocity and the bulk flow velocity at the edge of the plasma sheet are inward, toward the center. Measured normal to the surface of the plasma sheet, the timing velocity is 23 + or - 18 km/s and the proton flow velocity is 20 + or - 8 km/s. During substorm recovery, the plasma sheet reappears moving outward with an average timing velocity of 133 + or - 31 km/s; however, the corresponding proton flow velocity is only 3 + or - 7 km/s in the same direction. It is suggested that the difference between the average timing velocity for the expansion of the plasma sheet and the plasma bulk flow perpendicular to the surface of the sheet during substorm recovery is most likely the result of surface waves moving past the position of the satellites.

The vacuum friction paradox and related puzzles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Stephen M.; Sonnleitner, Matthias

2018-04-01

The frequency of light emitted by a moving source is shifted by a factor proportional to its velocity. We find that this Doppler shift requires the existence of a paradoxical effect: that a moving atom radiating in otherwise empty space feels a net or average force acing against its direction motion and proportional in magnitude to is speed. Yet there is no preferred rest frame, either in relativity or in Newtonian mechanics, so how can there be a vacuum friction force?

Realism and Effectiveness of Robotic Moving Targets

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-01

scenario or be manually controlled . The targets can communicate with other nearby targets, which means they can move independently, as a group , or...present a realistic three- dimensional human-sized target that can freely move with semi-autonomous control . The U.S. Army Research Institute for...Procedure: Performance and survey data were collected during multiple training exercises from Soldiers who engaged the RHTTs. Different groups

Tiger beetles pursue prey using a proportional control law with a delay of one half-stride.

PubMed

Haselsteiner, Andreas F; Gilbert, Cole; Wang, Z Jane

2014-06-06

Tiger beetles are fast diurnal predators capable of chasing prey under closed-loop visual guidance. We investigated this control system using statistical analyses of high-speed digital recordings of beetles chasing a moving prey dummy in a laboratory arena. Correlation analyses reveal that the beetle uses a proportional control law in which the angular position of the prey relative to the beetle's body axis drives the beetle's angular velocity with a delay of about 28 ms. The proportionality coefficient or system gain, 12 s(-1), is just below critical damping. Pursuit simulations using the derived control law predict angular orientation during pursuits with a residual error of about 7°. This is of the same order of magnitude as the oscillation imposed by the beetle's alternating tripod gait, which was not factored into the control law. The system delay of 28 ms equals a half-stride period, i.e. the time between the touch down of alternating tripods. Based on these results, we propose a physical interpretation of the observed control law: to turn towards its prey, the beetle on average exerts a sideways force proportional to the angular position of the prey measured a half-stride earlier.

Countermanding eye-head gaze shifts in humans: marching orders are delivered to the head first.

PubMed

Corneil, Brian D; Elsley, James K

2005-07-01

The countermanding task requires subjects to cancel a planned movement on appearance of a stop signal, providing insights into response generation and suppression. Here, we studied human eye-head gaze shifts in a countermanding task with targets located beyond the horizontal oculomotor range. Consistent with head-restrained saccadic countermanding studies, the proportion of gaze shifts on stop trials increased the longer the stop signal was delayed after target presentation, and gaze shift stop-signal reaction times (SSRTs: a derived statistic measuring how long it takes to cancel a movement) averaged approximately 120 ms across seven subjects. We also observed a marked proportion of trials (13% of all stop trials) during which gaze remained stable but the head moved toward the target. Such head movements were more common at intermediate stop signal delays. We never observed the converse sequence wherein gaze moved while the head remained stable. SSRTs for head movements averaged approximately 190 ms or approximately 70-75 ms longer than gaze SSRTs. Although our findings are inconsistent with a single race to threshold as proposed for controlling saccadic eye movements, movement parameters on stop trials attested to interactions consistent with a race model architecture. To explain our data, we tested two extensions to the saccadic race model. The first assumed that gaze shifts and head movements are controlled by parallel but independent races. The second model assumed that gaze shifts and head movements are controlled by a single race, preceded by terminal ballistic intervals not under inhibitory control, and that the head-movement branch is activated at a lower threshold. Although simulations of both models produced acceptable fits to the empirical data, we favor the second alternative as it is more parsimonious with recent findings in the oculomotor system. Using the second model, estimates for gaze and head ballistic intervals were approximately 25 and 90 ms, respectively, consistent with the known physiology of the final motor paths. Further, the threshold of the head movement branch was estimated to be 85% of that required to activate gaze shifts. From these results, we conclude that a commitment to a head movement is made in advance of gaze shifts and that the comparative SSRT differences result primarily from biomechanical differences inherent to eye and head motion.

Driving habits and risk exposure in older drivers: lessons learned from the implementation of a self-regulation curriculum.

PubMed

Jones, Vanya C; Cho, Juhee; Abendschoen-Milani, Jackie; Gielen, Andrea

2011-10-01

This article describes the development and pilot testing of Seniors on the MOVE (Mature Operators Vehicular Education), a safe driving education program for older adults. The study aims are to describe driving experiences and habits of a community sample of older drivers and to determine whether the program reduces their driving risk exposures. A 2-group randomized design was used. Fifty-eight participants with an average age of 70 were randomly assigned to the MOVE program or a no treatment control group. MOVE is a 4-session program designed to help older drivers better understand and utilize self-regulation skills for safer driving. Baseline and 4-week follow-up questionnaires were completed by both groups, after which the control group received the MOVE program. In the total sample, 14 percent reported having ever been in a traffic crash where someone was injured, and 10 percent reported having received a traffic citation in the past 6 months. Almost one half of the sample (47%) reported thinking about reducing the amount of driving done at night. Nearly one third were thinking about reducing the amount of driving done in unfamiliar places (32%) and the number of miles driven each week (30%). Participants reported most frequently driving between 2 to 10 miles from home, on local roadways, and between 9:00 am and 4:00 pm. Based on responses to items that measured such driving habits, a risk exposure score was created by combining driving exposure variables. Participants were categorized into lower and higher driving risk exposure groups at baseline and follow-up. There were no statistical differences in changes in higher or lower risk driving exposure variables when comparing the 2 groups. Although the impact of this program on reported driving behaviors yielded null results, descriptions of older drivers' habits and plans are informative. Because many participants were thinking about making changes to their driving habits, and many already had, the need for more effective self-regulation driving safety programs to help with this process is clear.

Cortico-pontine theta carrier frequency phase shift across sleep/wake states following monoaminergic lesion in rat.

PubMed

Kalauzi, Aleksandar; Spasic, Sladjana; Petrovic, Jelena; Ciric, Jelena; Saponjic, Jelena

2012-06-01

This study was aimed to explore the sleep/wake states related cortico-pontine theta carrier frequency phase shift following a systemically induced chemical axotomy of the monoaminergic afferents within a brain of the freely moving rats. Our experiments were performed in 14 adult, male Sprague Dawley rats, chronically implanted for sleep recording. We recorded sleep during baseline condition, following sham injection (saline i.p. 1 ml/kg), and every week for 5 weeks following injection of the systemic neurotoxins (DSP-4 or PCA; 1 ml/kg, i.p.) for chemical axotomy of the locus coeruleus (LC) and dorsal raphe (DR) axon terminals. After sleep/wake states identification, FFT analysis was performed on 5 s epochs. Theta carrier frequency phase shift (∆Φ) was calculated for each epoch by averaging theta Fourier component phase shifts, and the ∆Φ values were plotted for each rat in control condition and 28 days following the monoaminergic lesions, as a time for permanently established DR or LC chemical axotomy. Calculated group averages have shown that ∆Φ increased between pons and cortex significantly in all sleep/wake states (Wake, NREM and REM) following the monoaminergic lesions, with respect to controls. Monoaminergic lesions established the pontine leading role in the brain theta oscillations during all sleep/wake states.

Cloud Screening and Quality Control Algorithm for Star Photometer Data: Assessment with Lidar Measurements and with All-sky Images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramirez, Daniel Perez; Lyamani, H.; Olmo, F. J.; Whiteman, D. N.; Navas-Guzman, F.; Alados-Arboledas, L.

2012-01-01

This paper presents the development and set up of a cloud screening and data quality control algorithm for a star photometer based on CCD camera as detector. These algorithms are necessary for passive remote sensing techniques to retrieve the columnar aerosol optical depth, delta Ae(lambda), and precipitable water vapor content, W, at nighttime. This cloud screening procedure consists of calculating moving averages of delta Ae() and W under different time-windows combined with a procedure for detecting outliers. Additionally, to avoid undesirable Ae(lambda) and W fluctuations caused by the atmospheric turbulence, the data are averaged on 30 min. The algorithm is applied to the star photometer deployed in the city of Granada (37.16 N, 3.60 W, 680 ma.s.l.; South-East of Spain) for the measurements acquired between March 2007 and September 2009. The algorithm is evaluated with correlative measurements registered by a lidar system and also with all-sky images obtained at the sunset and sunrise of the previous and following days. Promising results are obtained detecting cloud-affected data. Additionally, the cloud screening algorithm has been evaluated under different aerosol conditions including Saharan dust intrusion, biomass burning and pollution events.

Hydrogeology and leachate movement near two chemical-waste sites in Oswego County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, H.R.; Miller, Todd S.

1986-01-01

Forty-five observation wells and test holes were installed at two chemical waste disposal sites in Oswego County, New York, to evaluate the hydrogeologic conditions and the rate and direction of leachate migration. At the site near Oswego groundwater moves northward at an average velocity of 0.4 ft/day through unconsolidated glacial deposits and discharges into White Creek and Wine Creek, which border the site and discharge to Lake Ontario. Leaking barrels by chemical wastes have contaminated the groundwater within the site, as evidenced by detection of 10 ' priority pollutant ' organic compounds, and elevated values of specific conductance, chloride, arsenic, lead, and mercury. At the site near Fulton, where 8,000 barrels of chemical wastes are buried, groundwater in the sandy surficial aquifer bordering the landfill on the south and east moves southward and eastward at an average velocity of 2.8 ft/day and discharges to Bell Creek, which discharges to the Oswego River, or moves beneath the landfill. Leachate is migrating eastward, southeastward, and southwestward, as evidenced by elevated values of specific conductance, temperature, and concentrations of several trace metals at wells east, southeast, and southwest of the site. (USGS)

The Accuracy of Talking Pedometers when Used during Free-Living: A Comparison of Four Devices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albright, Carolyn; Jerome, Gerald J.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy of four commercially available talking pedometers in measuring accumulated daily steps of adult participants while they moved independently. Ten young sighted adults (with an average age of 24.1 [plus or minus] 4.6 years), 10 older sighted adults (with an average age of 73 [plus or minus] 5.5…

Comparison of estimators for rolling samples using Forest Inventory and Analysis data

Treesearch

Devin S. Johnson; Michael S. Williams; Raymond L. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

The performance of three classes of weighted average estimators is studied for an annual inventory design similar to the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the United States. The first class is based on an ARIMA(0,1,1) time series model. The equal weight, simple moving average is a member of this class. The second class is based on an ARIMA(0,2,2) time series...

Interior of control house showing remains of controller. Moving the ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

Interior of control house showing remains of controller. Moving the handle rotated the vertical shaft and porcelain cams to engage various electrical switches and activate the lift mechanism. All electrical components have been removed. - Potomac Edison Company, Chesapeake & Ohio Canal Bridge, Spanning C & O Canal South of U.S. 11, Williamsport, Washington County, MD

A landslide-quake detection algorithm with STA/LTA and diagnostic functions of moving average and scintillation index: A preliminary case study of the 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yu-Jie; Lin, Guan-Wei

2017-04-01

Since 1999, Taiwan has experienced a rapid rise in the number of landslides, and the number even reached a peak after the 2009 Typhoon Morakot. Although it is proved that the ground-motion signals induced by slope processes could be recorded by seismograph, it is difficult to be distinguished from continuous seismic records due to the lack of distinct P and S waves. In this study, we combine three common seismic detectors including the short-term average/long-term average (STA/LTA) approach, and two diagnostic functions of moving average and scintillation index. Based on these detectors, we have established an auto-detection algorithm of landslide-quakes and the detection thresholds are defined to distinguish landslide-quake from earthquakes and background noises. To further improve the proposed detection algorithm, we apply it to seismic archives recorded by Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) during the 2009 Typhoon Morakots and consequently the discrete landslide-quakes detected by the automatic algorithm are located. The detection algorithm show that the landslide-detection results are consistent with that of visual inspection and hence can be used to automatically monitor landslide-quakes.

High-Resolution Coarse-Grained Modeling Using Oriented Coarse-Grained Sites.

PubMed

Haxton, Thomas K

2015-03-10

We introduce a method to bring nearly atomistic resolution to coarse-grained models, and we apply the method to proteins. Using a small number of coarse-grained sites (about one per eight atoms) but assigning an independent three-dimensional orientation to each site, we preferentially integrate out stiff degrees of freedom (bond lengths and angles, as well as dihedral angles in rings) that are accurately approximated by their average values, while retaining soft degrees of freedom (unconstrained dihedral angles) mostly responsible for conformational variability. We demonstrate that our scheme retains nearly atomistic resolution by mapping all experimental protein configurations in the Protein Data Bank onto coarse-grained configurations and then analytically backmapping those configurations back to all-atom configurations. This roundtrip mapping throws away all information associated with the eliminated (stiff) degrees of freedom except for their average values, which we use to construct optimal backmapping functions. Despite the 4:1 reduction in the number of degrees of freedom, we find that heavy atoms move only 0.051 Å on average during the roundtrip mapping, while hydrogens move 0.179 Å on average, an unprecedented combination of efficiency and accuracy among coarse-grained protein models. We discuss the advantages of such a high-resolution model for parametrizing effective interactions and accurately calculating observables through direct or multiscale simulations.

Basal-topographic control of stationary ponds on a continuously moving landslide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coe, J.A.; McKenna, J.P.; Godt, J.W.; Baum, R.L.

2009-01-01

The Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado has been moving for at least the last few hundred years and has multiple ponds on its surface. We have studied eight ponds during 30 trips to the landslide between July 1998 and July 2007. During each trip, we have made observations on the variability in pond locations and water levels, taken ground-based photographs to document pond water with respect to moving landslide material and vegetation, conducted Global Positioning System surveys of the elevations of water levels and mapped pond sediments on the landslide surface. Additionally, we have used stereo aerial photographs taken in October 1939, October 1940 and July 2000 to measure topographic profiles of the eight pond locations, as well as a longitudinal profile along the approximate centerline of the landslide, to examine topographic changes over a 60- to 61-year period of time. Results from field observations, analyses of photographs, mapping and measurements indicate that all pond locations have remained spatially stationary for 60-300 years while landslide material moves through these locations. Water levels during the observation period were sensitive to changes in the local, spring-fed, stream network, and to periodic filling of pond locations by sediment from floods, hyperconcentrated flows, mud flows and debris flows. For pond locations to remain stationary, the locations must mimic depressions along the basal surface of the landslide. The existence of such depressions indicates that the topography of the basal landslide surface is irregular. These results suggest that, for translational landslides that have moved distances larger than the dimensions of the largest basal topographic irregularities (about 200 m at Slumgullion), landslide surface morphology can be used as a guide to the morphology of the basal slip surface. Because basal slip surface morphology can affect landslide stability, kinematic models and stability analyses of translational landslides should attempt to incorporate irregular basal surface topography. Additional implications for moving landslides where basal topography controls surface morphology include the following: dateable sediments or organic material from basal layers of stationary ponds will yield ages that are younger than the date of landslide initiation, and it is probable that other landslide surface features such as faults, streams, springs and sinks are also controlled by basal topography. The longitudinal topographic profile indicated that the upper part of the Slumgullion landslide was depleted at a mean vertical lowering rate of 5.6 cm/yr between 1939 and 2000, while the toe advanced at an average rate of 1.5 m/yr during the same period. Therefore, during this 61-year period, neither the depletion of material at the head of the landslide nor continued growth of the landslide toe has decreased the overall movement rate of the landslide. Continued depletion of the upper part of the landslide, and growth of the toe, should eventually result in stabilization of the landslide. Copyright ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

KARMA4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, Mohammad; Salloum, Maher; Lee, Jina

2017-07-10

KARMA4 is a C++ library for autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling and forecasting of time-series data while incorporating both process and observation error. KARMA4 is designed for fitting and forecasting of time-series data for predictive purposes.

HELIOSHEATH MAGNETIC FIELDS BETWEEN 104 AND 113 AU IN A REGION OF DECLINING SPEEDS AND A STAGNATION REGION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burlaga, L. F.; Ness, N. F., E-mail: lburlagahsp@verizon.net, E-mail: nfnudel@yahoo.com

2012-04-10

We examine the relationships between the magnetic field and the radial velocity component V{sub R} observed in the heliosheath by instruments on Voyager 1 (V1). No increase in the magnetic field strength B was observed in a region where V{sub R} decreased linearly from 70 km s{sup -1} to 0 km s{sup -1} as plasma moved outward past V1. An unusually broad transition from positive to negative polarity was observed during a Almost-Equal-To 26 day interval when the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) moved below the latitude of V1 and the speed of V1 was comparable to the radial speed ofmore » the heliosheath flow. When V1 moved through a region where V{sub R} Almost-Equal-To 0 (the 'stagnation region'), B increased linearly with time by a factor of two, and the average of B was 0.14 nT. Nothing comparable to this was observed previously. The magnetic polarity was negative throughout the stagnation region for Almost-Equal-To 580 days until 2011 DOY 235, indicating that the HCS was below the latitude of V1. The average passage times of the magnetic holes and proton boundary layers were the same during 2009 and 2011, because the plasma moved past V1 during 2009 at the same speed that V1 moved through the stagnation region during 2011. The microscale fluctuations of B in the stagnation region during 2011 are qualitatively the same as those observed in the heliosheath during 2009. These results suggest that the stagnation region is a part of the heliosheath, rather than a 'transition region' associated with the heliopause.« less

Growth and structure of the World Wide Web: Towards realistic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadić, Bosiljka

2002-08-01

We simulate evolution of the World Wide Web from the dynamic rules incorporating growth, bias attachment, and rewiring. We show that the emergent double-hierarchical structure with distinct distributions of out- and in-links is comparable with the observed empirical data when the control parameter (average graph flexibility β) is kept in the range β=3-4. We then explore the Web graph by simulating (a) Web crawling to determine size and depth of connected components, and (b) a random walker that discovers the structure of connected subgraphs with dominant attractor and promoter nodes. A random walker that adapts its move strategy to mimic local node linking preferences is shown to have a short access time to "important" nodes on the Web graph.

Overweight and Obesity among Children: An Evaluation of a Walking Program.

PubMed

Zuraikat, Nashat; Dugan, Catherine

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify the prevalence of overweight and obesity among 5,158 school-age children and to evaluate the effectiveness of a walking program to encourage physical activity among children in Western Pennsylvania. According to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), obesity in school-age children affects approximately 19% of children 6-11 years old in the United States (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2010c ). Data were collected over six years. The results of the study revealed the prevalence of obesity and overweight was higher than the national averages: 36% versus 20%. The results also revealed the walking program to be beneficial in reducing students' prevalence of obesity and overweight and keeping them moving.

Thermoelectric integrated membrane evaporation water recovery technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roebelen, G. J., Jr.; Winkler, H. E.; Dehner, G. F.

1982-01-01

The recently developed Thermoelectric Integrated Membrane Evaporation Subsystem (TIMES) offers a highly competitive approach to water recovery from waste fluids for future on-orbit stations such as the Space Operations Center. Low power, compactness and gravity insensitive operation are featured in this vacuum distillation subsystem that combines a hollow fiber membrane evaporator with a thermoelectric heat pump. The hollow fiber elements provide positive liquid/gas phase control with no moving parts other than pumps and an accumulator, thus solving problems inherent in other reclamation subsystem designs. In an extensive test program, over 850 hours of operation were accumulated during which time high quality product water was recovered from both urine and wash water at an average steady state production rate of 2.2 pounds per hour.

ELECTROMAGNETIC APPARATUS FOR MOVING A ROD

DOEpatents

Young, J.N.

1957-08-20

An electromagnetic device for moving an object in a linear path by increments is described. The device is specifically adapted for moving a neutron absorbing control rod into and out of the core of a reactor and consists essentially of an extension member made of magnetic material connected to one end of the control rod and mechanically flexible to grip the walls of a sleeve member when flexed, a magnetic sleeve member coaxial with and slidable between limit stops along the flexible extension, electromagnetic coils substantially centrally located with respect to the flexible extension to flex the extension member into gripping engagement with the sleeve member when ener gized, moving electromagnets at each end of the sleeve to attract the sleeve when energized, and a second gripping electromagnet positioned along the flexible extension at a distance from the previously mentioned electromagnets for gripping the extension member when energized. In use, the second gripping electromagnet is deenergized, the first gripping electromagnet is energized to fix the extension member in the sleeve, and one of the moving electromagnets is energized to attract the sleeve member toward it, thereby moving the control rod.

Improving the Safety of Moving Lane Closures

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

Moving lane closures are an increasingly utilized and inherently hazardous traffic control procedure for highway : maintenance and operations activities. To improve the safety of moving lane closures for workers and motorists, : this research studied...

A Modular Approach to Model Oscillating Control Surfaces Using Navier Stokes Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guruswamy, Guru P.; Lee, Henry

2014-01-01

The use of active controls for rotorcraft is becoming more important for modern aerospace configurations. Efforts to reduce the vibrations of helicopter blades with use of active-controls are in progress. Modeling oscillating control surfaces using the linear aerodynamics theory is well established. However, higher-fidelity methods are needed to account for nonlinear effects, such as those that occur in transonic flow. The aeroelastic responses of a wing with an oscillating control surface, computed using the transonic small perturbation (TSP) theory, have been shown to cause important transonic flow effects such as a reversal of control surface effectiveness that occurs as the shock wave crosses the hinge line. In order to account for flow complexities such as blade-vortex interactions of rotor blades higher-fidelity methods based on the Navier-Stokes equations are used. Reference 6 presents a procedure that uses the Navier-Stokes equations with moving-sheared grids and demonstrates up to 8 degrees of control-surface amplitude, using a single grid. Later, this procedure was extended to accommodate larger amplitudes, based on sliding grid zones. The sheared grid method implemented in EulerlNavier-Stokes-based aeroelastic code ENS AERO was successfully applied to active control design by industry. Recently there are several papers that present results for oscillating control surface using Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. References 9 and 10 report 2-D cases by filling gaps with overset grids. Reference 9 compares integrated forces with the experiment at low oscillating frequencies whereas Ref. 10 reports parametric studies but with no validation. Reference II reports results for a 3D case by modeling the gap region with a deformed grid and compares force results with the experiment only at the mid-span of flap. In Ref. II grid is deformed to match the control surface deflections at the section where the measurements are made. However, there is no indication in Ref. II that the gaps are explicitly modeled as in Ref. 6. Computations using overset grids are reported in Ref. 12 for a case by adding moving control surface to an existing blade but with no validation either with an experiment or another computation.

Osmium Atoms and Os2 Molecules Move Faster on Selenium-Doped Compared to Sulfur-Doped Boronic Graphenic Surfaces

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

We deposited Os atoms on S- and Se-doped boronic graphenic surfaces by electron bombardment of micelles containing 16e complexes [Os(p-cymene)(1,2-dicarba-closo-dodecarborane-1,2-diselenate/dithiolate)] encapsulated in a triblock copolymer. The surfaces were characterized by energy-dispersive X-ray (EDX) analysis and electron energy loss spectroscopy of energy filtered TEM (EFTEM). Os atoms moved ca. 26× faster on the B/Se surface compared to the B/S surface (233 ± 34 pm·s–1versus 8.9 ± 1.9 pm·s–1). Os atoms formed dimers with an average Os–Os distance of 0.284 ± 0.077 nm on the B/Se surface and 0.243 ± 0.059 nm on B/S, close to that in metallic Os. The Os2 molecules moved 0.83× and 0.65× more slowly than single Os atoms on B/S and B/Se surfaces, respectively, and again markedly faster (ca. 20×) on the B/Se surface (151 ± 45 pm·s–1 versus 7.4 ± 2.8 pm·s–1). Os atom motion did not follow Brownian motion and appears to involve anchoring sites, probably S and Se atoms. The ability to control the atomic motion of metal atoms and molecules on surfaces has potential for exploitation in nanodevices of the future. PMID:26525180

Intelligent transportation systems infrastructure initiative

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The three-quarter moving composite price index is the weighted average of the indices for three consecutive quarters. The Composite Bid Price Index is composed of six indicator items: common excavation, to indicate the price trend for all roadway exc...

Comparing the performance of FA, DFA and DMA using different synthetic long-range correlated time series

PubMed Central

Shao, Ying-Hui; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

2012-01-01

Notwithstanding the significant efforts to develop estimators of long-range correlations (LRC) and to compare their performance, no clear consensus exists on what is the best method and under which conditions. In addition, synthetic tests suggest that the performance of LRC estimators varies when using different generators of LRC time series. Here, we compare the performances of four estimators [Fluctuation Analysis (FA), Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), Backward Detrending Moving Average (BDMA), and Centred Detrending Moving Average (CDMA)]. We use three different generators [Fractional Gaussian Noises, and two ways of generating Fractional Brownian Motions]. We find that CDMA has the best performance and DFA is only slightly worse in some situations, while FA performs the worst. In addition, CDMA and DFA are less sensitive to the scaling range than FA. Hence, CDMA and DFA remain “The Methods of Choice” in determining the Hurst index of time series. PMID:23150785

CLASSICAL AREAS OF PHENOMENOLOGY: Lattice Boltzmann simulation of behaviour of particles moving in blood vessels under the rolling massage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Hou-Hui; Yang, Xiao-Feng; Wang, Cai-Feng; Li, Hua-Bing

2009-07-01

The rolling massage is one of the most important manipulations in Chinese massage, which is expected to eliminate many diseases. Here, the effect of the rolling massage on a pair of particles moving in blood vessels under rolling massage manipulation is studied by the lattice Boltzmann simulation. The simulated results show that the motion of each particle is considerably modified by the rolling massage, and it depends on the relative rolling velocity, the rolling depth, and the distance between particle position and rolling position. Both particles' translational average velocities increase almost linearly as the rolling velocity increases, and obey the same law. The increment of the average relative angular velocity for the leading particle is smaller than that of the trailing one. The result is helpful for understanding the mechanism of the massage and to further develop the rolling techniques.

Compression of head-related transfer function using autoregressive-moving-average models and Legendre polynomials.

PubMed

Shekarchi, Sayedali; Hallam, John; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

2013-11-01

Head-related transfer functions (HRTFs) are generally large datasets, which can be an important constraint for embedded real-time applications. A method is proposed here to reduce redundancy and compress the datasets. In this method, HRTFs are first compressed by conversion into autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) filters whose coefficients are calculated using Prony's method. Such filters are specified by a few coefficients which can generate the full head-related impulse responses (HRIRs). Next, Legendre polynomials (LPs) are used to compress the ARMA filter coefficients. LPs are derived on the sphere and form an orthonormal basis set for spherical functions. Higher-order LPs capture increasingly fine spatial details. The number of LPs needed to represent an HRTF, therefore, is indicative of its spatial complexity. The results indicate that compression ratios can exceed 98% while maintaining a spectral error of less than 4 dB in the recovered HRTFs.

Direct determination approach for the multifractal detrending moving average analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hai-Chuan; Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2017-11-01

In the canonical framework, we propose an alternative approach for the multifractal analysis based on the detrending moving average method (MF-DMA). We define a canonical measure such that the multifractal mass exponent τ (q ) is related to the partition function and the multifractal spectrum f (α ) can be directly determined. The performances of the direct determination approach and the traditional approach of the MF-DMA are compared based on three synthetic multifractal and monofractal measures generated from the one-dimensional p -model, the two-dimensional p -model, and the fractional Brownian motions. We find that both approaches have comparable performances to unveil the fractal and multifractal nature. In other words, without loss of accuracy, the multifractal spectrum f (α ) can be directly determined using the new approach with less computation cost. We also apply the new MF-DMA approach to the volatility time series of stock prices and confirm the presence of multifractality.

[A peak recognition algorithm designed for chromatographic peaks of transformer oil].

PubMed

Ou, Linjun; Cao, Jian

2014-09-01

In the field of the chromatographic peak identification of the transformer oil, the traditional first-order derivative requires slope threshold to achieve peak identification. In terms of its shortcomings of low automation and easy distortion, the first-order derivative method was improved by applying the moving average iterative method and the normalized analysis techniques to identify the peaks. Accurate identification of the chromatographic peaks was realized through using multiple iterations of the moving average of signal curves and square wave curves to determine the optimal value of the normalized peak identification parameters, combined with the absolute peak retention times and peak window. The experimental results show that this algorithm can accurately identify the peaks and is not sensitive to the noise, the chromatographic peak width or the peak shape changes. It has strong adaptability to meet the on-site requirements of online monitoring devices of dissolved gases in transformer oil.

ARMA Cholesky Factor Models for the Covariance Matrix of Linear Models.

PubMed

Lee, Keunbaik; Baek, Changryong; Daniels, Michael J

2017-11-01

In longitudinal studies, serial dependence of repeated outcomes must be taken into account to make correct inferences on covariate effects. As such, care must be taken in modeling the covariance matrix. However, estimation of the covariance matrix is challenging because there are many parameters in the matrix and the estimated covariance matrix should be positive definite. To overcomes these limitations, two Cholesky decomposition approaches have been proposed: modified Cholesky decomposition for autoregressive (AR) structure and moving average Cholesky decomposition for moving average (MA) structure, respectively. However, the correlations of repeated outcomes are often not captured parsimoniously using either approach separately. In this paper, we propose a class of flexible, nonstationary, heteroscedastic models that exploits the structure allowed by combining the AR and MA modeling of the covariance matrix that we denote as ARMACD. We analyze a recent lung cancer study to illustrate the power of our proposed methods.

Optimized nested Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling: theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coe, Joshua D; Shaw, M Sam; Sewell, Thomas D

2009-01-01

Metropolis Monte Carlo sampling of a reference potential is used to build a Markov chain in the isothermal-isobaric ensemble. At the endpoints of the chain, the energy is reevaluated at a different level of approximation (the 'full' energy) and a composite move encompassing all of the intervening steps is accepted on the basis of a modified Metropolis criterion. By manipulating the thermodynamic variables characterizing the reference system we maximize the average acceptance probability of composite moves, lengthening significantly the random walk made between consecutive evaluations of the full energy at a fixed acceptance probability. This provides maximally decorrelated samples ofmore » the full potential, thereby lowering the total number required to build ensemble averages of a given variance. The efficiency of the method is illustrated using model potentials appropriate to molecular fluids at high pressure. Implications for ab initio or density functional theory (DFT) treatment are discussed.« less

Finite-size effect and the components of multifractality in transport economics volatility based on multifractal detrending moving average method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Feier; Tian, Kang; Ding, Xiaoxu; Miao, Yuqi; Lu, Chunxia

2016-11-01

Analysis of freight rate volatility characteristics attracts more attention after year 2008 due to the effect of credit crunch and slowdown in marine transportation. The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis technique is employed to analyze the time series of Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index and the market trend of two bulk ship sizes, namely Capesize and Panamax for the period: March 1st 1999-February 26th 2015. In this paper, the degree of the multifractality with different fluctuation sizes is calculated. Besides, multifractal detrending moving average (MF-DMA) counting technique has been developed to quantify the components of multifractal spectrum with the finite-size effect taken into consideration. Numerical results show that both Capesize and Panamax freight rate index time series are of multifractal nature. The origin of multifractality for the bulk freight rate market series is found mostly due to nonlinear correlation.

Comparison of two non-convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming algorithms applied to autoregressive moving average model structure and parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uilhoorn, F. E.

2016-10-01

In this article, the stochastic modelling approach proposed by Box and Jenkins is treated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem solved with a mesh adaptive direct search and a real-coded genetic class of algorithms. The aim is to estimate the real-valued parameters and non-negative integer, correlated structure of stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. The maximum likelihood function of the stationary ARMA process is embedded in Akaike's information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion, whereas the estimation procedure is based on Kalman filter recursions. The constraints imposed on the objective function enforce stability and invertibility. The best ARMA model is regarded as the global minimum of the non-convex MINLP problem. The robustness and computational performance of the MINLP solvers are compared with brute-force enumeration. Numerical experiments are done for existing time series and one new data set.

The Onset Time of the Ownership Sensation in the Moving Rubber Hand Illusion.

PubMed

Kalckert, Andreas; Ehrsson, H H

2017-01-01

The rubber hand illusion (RHI) is a perceptual illusion whereby a model hand is perceived as part of one's own body. This illusion has been extensively studied, but little is known about the temporal evolution of this perceptual phenomenon, i.e., how long it takes until participants start to experience ownership over the model hand. In the present study, we investigated a version of the rubber hand experiment based on finger movements and measured the average onset time in active and passive movement conditions. This comparison enabled us to further explore the possible role of intentions and motor control processes that are only present in the active movement condition. The results from a large group of healthy participants ( n = 117) showed that the illusion of ownership took approximately 23 s to emerge (active: 22.8; passive: 23.2). The 90th percentile occurs in both conditions within approximately 50 s (active: 50; passive: 50.6); therefore, most participants experience the illusion within the first minute. We found indirect evidence of a facilitatory effect of active movements compared to passive movements, and we discuss these results in the context of our current understanding of the processes underlying the moving RHI.

Odor-conditioned rheotaxis of the sea lamprey: modeling, analysis and validation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choi, Jongeun; Jean, Soo; Johnson, Nicholas S.; Brant, Cory O.; Li, Weiming

2013-01-01

Mechanisms for orienting toward and locating an odor source are sought in both biology and engineering. Chemical ecology studies have demonstrated that adult female sea lamprey show rheotaxis in response to a male pheromone with dichotomous outcomes: sexually mature females locate the source of the pheromone whereas immature females swim by the source and continue moving upstream. Here we introduce a simple switching mechanism modeled after odor-conditioned rheotaxis for the sea lamprey as they search for the source of a pheromone in a one-dimensional riverine environment. In this strategy, the females move upstream only if they detect that the pheromone concentration is higher than a threshold value and drifts down (by turning off control action to save energy) otherwise. In addition, we propose various uncertainty models such as measurement noise, actuator disturbance, and a probabilistic model of a concentration field in turbulent flow. Based on the proposed model with uncertainties, a convergence analysis showed that with this simplistic switching mechanism, the lamprey converges to the source location on average in spite of all such uncertainties. Furthermore, a slightly modified model and its extensive simulation results explain the behaviors of immature female lamprey near the source location.

76 FR 77183 - Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Theft Protection and Rollaway Prevention

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-12

...: Attempts to shut down the propulsion system without first moving the gear selection control to the ``park... selection control to ``park'' (for vehicles with a ``park'' position), or exits a vehicle without first... without first moving the gear selection control to the ``park'' position (for vehicles with a ``park...

Long-term follow-up after maxillary distraction osteogenesis in growing children with cleft lip and palate.

PubMed

Huang, Chiung-Shing; Harikrishnan, Pandurangan; Liao, Yu-Fang; Ko, Ellen W C; Liou, Eric J W; Chen, Philip K T

2007-05-01

To evaluate the changes in maxillary position after maxillary distraction osteogenesis in six growing children with cleft lip and palate. Retrospective, longitudinal study on maxillary changes at A point, anterior nasal spine, posterior nasal spine, central incisor, and first molar. The University Hospital Craniofacial Center. Cephalometric radiographs were used to measure the maxillary position immediately after distraction, at 6 months, and more than 1 year after distraction. After maxillary distraction with a rigid external distraction device, the maxilla (A point) on average moved forward 9.7 mm and downward 3.5 mm immediately after distraction, moved backward 0.9 mm and upward 2.0 mm after 6 months postoperatively, and then moved further backward 2.3 mm and downward 6.8 mm after more than 1 year from the predistraction position. In most cases, maxilla moved forward at distraction and started to move backward until 1 year after distraction, but remained forward, as compared with predistraction position. Maxilla also moved downward during distraction and upward in 6 months, but started descending in 1 year. There also was no further forward growth of the maxilla after distraction in growing children with clefts.

An Indoor Continuous Positioning Algorithm on the Move by Fusing Sensors and Wi-Fi on Smartphones.

PubMed

Li, Huaiyu; Chen, Xiuwan; Jing, Guifei; Wang, Yuan; Cao, Yanfeng; Li, Fei; Zhang, Xinlong; Xiao, Han

2015-12-11

Wi-Fi indoor positioning algorithms experience large positioning error and low stability when continuously positioning terminals that are on the move. This paper proposes a novel indoor continuous positioning algorithm that is on the move, fusing sensors and Wi-Fi on smartphones. The main innovative points include an improved Wi-Fi positioning algorithm and a novel positioning fusion algorithm named the Trust Chain Positioning Fusion (TCPF) algorithm. The improved Wi-Fi positioning algorithm was designed based on the properties of Wi-Fi signals on the move, which are found in a novel "quasi-dynamic" Wi-Fi signal experiment. The TCPF algorithm is proposed to realize the "process-level" fusion of Wi-Fi and Pedestrians Dead Reckoning (PDR) positioning, including three parts: trusted point determination, trust state and positioning fusion algorithm. An experiment is carried out for verification in a typical indoor environment, and the average positioning error on the move is 1.36 m, a decrease of 28.8% compared to an existing algorithm. The results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce the influence caused by the unstable Wi-Fi signals, and improve the accuracy and stability of indoor continuous positioning on the move.

Measuring multiple spike train synchrony.

PubMed

Kreuz, Thomas; Chicharro, Daniel; Andrzejak, Ralph G; Haas, Julie S; Abarbanel, Henry D I

2009-10-15

Measures of multiple spike train synchrony are essential in order to study issues such as spike timing reliability, network synchronization, and neuronal coding. These measures can broadly be divided in multivariate measures and averages over bivariate measures. One of the most recent bivariate approaches, the ISI-distance, employs the ratio of instantaneous interspike intervals (ISIs). In this study we propose two extensions of the ISI-distance, the straightforward averaged bivariate ISI-distance and the multivariate ISI-diversity based on the coefficient of variation. Like the original measure these extensions combine many properties desirable in applications to real data. In particular, they are parameter-free, time scale independent, and easy to visualize in a time-resolved manner, as we illustrate with in vitro recordings from a cortical neuron. Using a simulated network of Hindemarsh-Rose neurons as a controlled configuration we compare the performance of our methods in distinguishing different levels of multi-neuron spike train synchrony to the performance of six other previously published measures. We show and explain why the averaged bivariate measures perform better than the multivariate ones and why the multivariate ISI-diversity is the best performer among the multivariate methods. Finally, in a comparison against standard methods that rely on moving window estimates, we use single-unit monkey data to demonstrate the advantages of the instantaneous nature of our methods.

Schema generation in recurrent neural nets for intercepting a moving target.

PubMed

Fleischer, Andreas G

2010-06-01

The grasping of a moving object requires the development of a motor strategy to anticipate the trajectory of the target and to compute an optimal course of interception. During the performance of perception-action cycles, a preprogrammed prototypical movement trajectory, a motor schema, may highly reduce the control load. Subjects were asked to hit a target that was moving along a circular path by means of a cursor. Randomized initial target positions and velocities were detected in the periphery of the eyes, resulting in a saccade toward the target. Even when the target disappeared, the eyes followed the target's anticipated course. The Gestalt of the trajectories was dependent on target velocity. The prediction capability of the motor schema was investigated by varying the visibility range of cursor and target. Motor schemata were determined to be of limited precision, and therefore visual feedback was continuously required to intercept the moving target. To intercept a target, the motor schema caused the hand to aim ahead and to adapt to the target trajectory. The control of cursor velocity determined the point of interception. From a modeling point of view, a neural network was developed that allowed the implementation of a motor schema interacting with feedback control in an iterative manner. The neural net of the Wilson type consists of an excitation-diffusion layer allowing the generation of a moving bubble. This activation bubble runs down an eye-centered motor schema and causes a planar arm model to move toward the target. A bubble provides local integration and straightening of the trajectory during repetitive moves. The schema adapts to task demands by learning and serves as forward controller. On the basis of these model considerations the principal problem of embedding motor schemata in generalized control strategies is discussed.

Bed Surface Adjustments to Spatially Variable Flow in Low Relative Submergence Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monsalve, A.; Yager, E. M.

2017-11-01

In mountainous rivers, large relatively immobile grains partly control the local and reach-averaged flow hydraulics and sediment fluxes. When the flow depth is similar to the size of these grains (low relative submergence), heterogeneous flow structures and plunging flow cause spatial distributions of bed surface elevations, textures, and sedimentation rates. To explore how the bed surface responds to these flow variations we conducted a set of experiments in which we varied the relative submergence of staggered hemispheres (simulated large boulders) between runs. All experiments had the same average sediment transport capacity, upstream sediment supply, and initial bed thickness and grain size distribution. We combined our laboratory measurements with a 3-D flow model to obtain the detailed flow structure around the hemispheres. The local bed shear stress field displayed substantial variability and controlled the bed load transport rates and direction in which sediment moved. The divergence in bed shear stress caused by the hemispheres promoted size-selective bed load deposition, which formed patches of coarse sediment upstream of the hemisphere. Sediment deposition caused a decrease in local bed shear stress, which combined with the coarser grain size, enhanced the stability of this patch. The region downstream of the hemispheres was largely controlled by a recirculation zone and had little to no change in grain size, bed elevation, and bed shear stress. The formation, development, and stability of sediment patches in mountain streams is controlled by the bed shear stress divergence and magnitude and direction of the local bed shear stress field.

Control Program for an Optical-Calibration Robot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, Albert

2005-01-01

A computer program provides semiautomatic control of a moveable robot used to perform optical calibration of video-camera-based optoelectronic sensor systems that will be used to guide automated rendezvous maneuvers of spacecraft. The function of the robot is to move a target and hold it at specified positions. With the help of limit switches, the software first centers or finds the target. Then the target is moved to a starting position. Thereafter, with the help of an intuitive graphical user interface, an operator types in coordinates of specified positions, and the software responds by commanding the robot to move the target to the positions. The software has capabilities for correcting errors and for recording data from the guidance-sensor system being calibrated. The software can also command that the target be moved in a predetermined sequence of motions between specified positions and can be run in an advanced control mode in which, among other things, the target can be moved beyond the limits set by the limit switches.

Video-Assisted Thoracic Surgical Lobectomy for Lung Cancer: Description of a Learning Curve.

PubMed

Yao, Fei; Wang, Jian; Yao, Ju; Hang, Fangrong; Cao, Shiqi; Cao, Yongke

2017-07-01

Video-assisted thoracic surgical (VATS) lobectomy is gaining popularity in the treatment of lung cancer. The aim of this study is to investigate the learning curve of VATS lobectomy by using multidimensional methods and to compare the learning curve groups with respect to perioperative clinical outcomes. We retrospectively reviewed a prospective database to identify 67 consecutive patients who underwent VATS lobectomy for lung cancer by a single surgeon. The learning curve was analyzed by using moving average and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) method. With the moving average and CUSUM analyses for the operation time, patients were stratified into two groups, with chronological order defining early and late experiences. Perioperative clinical outcomes were compared between the two learning curve groups. According to the moving average method, the peak point for operation time occurred at the 26th case. The CUSUM method also showed the operation time peak point at the 26th case. When results were compared between early- and late-experience periods, the operation time, duration of chest drainage, and postoperative hospital stay were significantly longer in the early-experience group (cases 1 to 26). The intraoperative estimated blood loss was significantly less in the late-experience group (cases 27 to 67). CUSUM charts showed a decreasing duration of chest drainage after the 36th case and shortening postoperative hospital stay after the 37th case. Multidimensional statistical analyses suggested that the learning curve for VATS lobectomy for lung cancer required ∼26 cases. Favorable intraoperative and postoperative care parameters for VATS lobectomy were observed in the late-experience group.

Learning curves for single incision and conventional laparoscopic right hemicolectomy: a multidimensional analysis

PubMed Central

Park, Yoonah; Yong, Yuen Geng; Jung, Kyung Uk; Huh, Jung Wook; Cho, Yong Beom; Kim, Hee Cheol; Lee, Woo Yong; Chun, Ho-Kyung

2015-01-01

Purpose This study aimed to compare the learning curves and early postoperative outcomes for conventional laparoscopic (CL) and single incision laparoscopic (SIL) right hemicolectomy (RHC). Methods This retrospective study included the initial 35 cases in each group. Learning curves were evaluated by the moving average of operative time, mean operative time of every five consecutive cases, and cumulative sum (CUSUM) analysis. The learning phase was considered overcome when the moving average of operative times reached a plateau, and when the mean operative time of every five consecutive cases reached a low point and subsequently did not vary by more than 30 minutes. Results Six patients with missing data in the CL RHC group were excluded from the analyses. According to the mean operative time of every five consecutive cases, learning phase of SIL and CL RHC was completed between 26 and 30 cases, and 16 and 20 cases, respectively. Moving average analysis revealed that approximately 31 (SIL) and 25 (CL) cases were needed to complete the learning phase, respectively. CUSUM analysis demonstrated that 10 (SIL) and two (CL) cases were required to reach a steady state of complication-free performance, respectively. Postoperative complications rate was higher in SIL than in CL group, but the difference was not statistically significant (17.1% vs. 3.4%). Conclusion The learning phase of SIL RHC is longer than that of CL RHC. Early oncological outcomes of both techniques were comparable. However, SIL RHC had a statistically insignificant higher complication rate than CL RHC during the learning phase. PMID:25960990

A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

2017-06-01

Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001–2011

PubMed Central

Coomber, Kerri; Durkin, Sarah J; Scollo, Michelle; Bayly, Megan; Spittal, Matthew J; Simpson, Julie A; Hill, David

2014-01-01

Abstract Objective To determine the impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on smoking prevalence in Australian adults. Methods Data for calculating the average monthly prevalence of smoking between January 2001 and June 2011 were obtained via structured interviews of randomly sampled adults aged 18 years or older from Australia’s five largest capital cities (monthly mean number of adults interviewed: 2375). The influence on smoking prevalence was estimated for increased tobacco taxes; strengthened smoke-free laws; increased monthly population exposure to televised tobacco control mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical company advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), using gross ratings points; monthly sales of NRT, bupropion and varenicline; and introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to examine the influence of these interventions on smoking prevalence. Findings The mean smoking prevalence for the study period was 19.9% (standard deviation: 2.0%), with a drop from 23.6% (in January 2001) to 17.3% (in June 2011). The best-fitting model showed that stronger smoke-free laws, tobacco price increases and greater exposure to mass media campaigns independently explained 76% of the decrease in smoking prevalence from February 2002 to June 2011. Conclusion Increased tobacco taxation, more comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased investment in mass media campaigns played a substantial role in reducing smoking prevalence among Australian adults between 2001 and 2011. PMID:24940015

Rippling Dune Front in Herschel Crater on Mars

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-11-17

A rippled dune front in Herschel Crater on Mars moved an average of about two meters about two yards between March 3, 2007 and December 1, 2010, as seen in one of two images from NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Rippling Dune Front in Herschel Crater on Mars

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-11-17

A rippled dune front in Herschel Crater on Mars moved an average of about one meter about one yard between March 3, 2007 and December 1, 2010, as seen in one of two images from NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Shifting Sand in Herschel Crater

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-11-17

The eastern margin of a rippled dune in Herschel Crater on Mars moved an average distance of three meters about three yards between March 3, 2007 and December 1, 2010, in one of two images taken by NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Development and validation of a weather-based warning system to advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot on turfgrass.

PubMed

Smith, D L; Kerns, J P; Walker, N R; Payne, A F; Horvath, B; Inguagiato, J C; Kaminski, J E; Tomaso-Peterson, M; Koch, P L

2018-01-01

Dollar spot is one of the most common diseases of golf course turfgrass and numerous fungicide applications are often required to provide adequate control. Weather-based disease warning systems have been developed to more accurately time fungicide applications; however, they tend to be ineffective and are not currently in widespread use. The primary objective of this research was to develop a new weather-based disease warning system to more accurately advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot activity across a broad geographic and climactic range. The new dollar spot warning system was developed from data collected at field sites in Madison, WI and Stillwater, OK in 2008 and warning system validation sites were established in Madison, WI, Stillwater, OK, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Starkville, MS, and Storrs, CT between 2011 and 2016. A meta-analysis of all site-years was conducted and the most effective warning system for dollar spot development consisted of a five-day moving average of relative humidity and average daily temperature. Using this model the highest effective probability that provided dollar spot control similar to that of a calendar-based program across the numerous sites and years was 20%. Additional analysis found that the 20% spray threshold provided comparable control to the calendar-based program while reducing fungicide usage by up to 30%, though further refinement may be needed as practitioners implement this warning system in a range of environments not tested here. The weather-based dollar spot warning system presented here will likely become an important tool for implementing precision disease management strategies for future turfgrass managers, especially as financial and regulatory pressures increase the need to reduce pesticide usage on golf course turfgrass.

Development and validation of a weather-based warning system to advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot on turfgrass

PubMed Central

Smith, D. L.; Kerns, J. P.; Walker, N. R.; Payne, A. F.; Horvath, B.; Inguagiato, J. C.; Kaminski, J. E.; Tomaso-Peterson, M.

2018-01-01

Dollar spot is one of the most common diseases of golf course turfgrass and numerous fungicide applications are often required to provide adequate control. Weather-based disease warning systems have been developed to more accurately time fungicide applications; however, they tend to be ineffective and are not currently in widespread use. The primary objective of this research was to develop a new weather-based disease warning system to more accurately advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot activity across a broad geographic and climactic range. The new dollar spot warning system was developed from data collected at field sites in Madison, WI and Stillwater, OK in 2008 and warning system validation sites were established in Madison, WI, Stillwater, OK, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Starkville, MS, and Storrs, CT between 2011 and 2016. A meta-analysis of all site-years was conducted and the most effective warning system for dollar spot development consisted of a five-day moving average of relative humidity and average daily temperature. Using this model the highest effective probability that provided dollar spot control similar to that of a calendar-based program across the numerous sites and years was 20%. Additional analysis found that the 20% spray threshold provided comparable control to the calendar-based program while reducing fungicide usage by up to 30%, though further refinement may be needed as practitioners implement this warning system in a range of environments not tested here. The weather-based dollar spot warning system presented here will likely become an important tool for implementing precision disease management strategies for future turfgrass managers, especially as financial and regulatory pressures increase the need to reduce pesticide usage on golf course turfgrass. PMID:29522560

The Postural Responses to a Moving Environment of Adults Who Are Blind

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoffregen, Thomas A.; Ito, Kiyohide; Hove, Philip; Yank, Jane Redfield; Bardy, Benoit G.

2010-01-01

Adults who are blind stood in a room that could be moved around them. A sound source moved with the room, simulating the acoustic consequences of body sway. Body sway was greater when the room moved than when it was stationary, suggesting that sound may have been used to control stance. (Contains 1 figure.)

Forecasting Daily Patient Outflow From a Ward Having No Real-Time Clinical Data

PubMed Central

Tran, Truyen; Luo, Wei; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha

2016-01-01

Background: Modeling patient flow is crucial in understanding resource demand and prioritization. We study patient outflow from an open ward in an Australian hospital, where currently bed allocation is carried out by a manager relying on past experiences and looking at demand. Automatic methods that provide a reasonable estimate of total next-day discharges can aid in efficient bed management. The challenges in building such methods lie in dealing with large amounts of discharge noise introduced by the nonlinear nature of hospital procedures, and the nonavailability of real-time clinical information in wards. Objective Our study investigates different models to forecast the total number of next-day discharges from an open ward having no real-time clinical data. Methods We compared 5 popular regression algorithms to model total next-day discharges: (1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), (2) the autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX), (3) k-nearest neighbor regression, (4) random forest regression, and (5) support vector regression. Although the autoregressive integrated moving average model relied on past 3-month discharges, nearest neighbor forecasting used median of similar discharges in the past in estimating next-day discharge. In addition, the ARMAX model used the day of the week and number of patients currently in ward as exogenous variables. For the random forest and support vector regression models, we designed a predictor set of 20 patient features and 88 ward-level features. Results Our data consisted of 12,141 patient visits over 1826 days. Forecasting quality was measured using mean forecast error, mean absolute error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error. When compared with a moving average prediction model, all 5 models demonstrated superior performance with the random forests achieving 22.7% improvement in mean absolute error, for all days in the year 2014. Conclusions In the absence of clinical information, our study recommends using patient-level and ward-level data in predicting next-day discharges. Random forest and support vector regression models are able to use all available features from such data, resulting in superior performance over traditional autoregressive methods. An intelligent estimate of available beds in wards plays a crucial role in relieving access block in emergency departments. PMID:27444059

Computer simulation of concentrated solid solution strengthening

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuo, C. T. K.; Arsenault, R. J.

1976-01-01

The interaction forces between a straight edge dislocation moving through a three-dimensional block containing a random array of solute atoms were determined. The yield stress at 0 K was obtained by determining the average maximum solute-dislocation interaction force that is encountered by edge dislocation, and an expression relating the yield stress to the length of the dislocation and the solute concentration is provided. The magnitude of the solid solution strengthening due to solute atoms can be determined directly from the numerical results, provided the dislocation line length that moves as a unit is specified.

Joint level-set and spatio-temporal motion detection for cell segmentation.

PubMed

Boukari, Fatima; Makrogiannis, Sokratis

2016-08-10

Cell segmentation is a critical step for quantification and monitoring of cell cycle progression, cell migration, and growth control to investigate cellular immune response, embryonic development, tumorigenesis, and drug effects on live cells in time-lapse microscopy images. In this study, we propose a joint spatio-temporal diffusion and region-based level-set optimization approach for moving cell segmentation. Moving regions are initially detected in each set of three consecutive sequence images by numerically solving a system of coupled spatio-temporal partial differential equations. In order to standardize intensities of each frame, we apply a histogram transformation approach to match the pixel intensities of each processed frame with an intensity distribution model learned from all frames of the sequence during the training stage. After the spatio-temporal diffusion stage is completed, we compute the edge map by nonparametric density estimation using Parzen kernels. This process is followed by watershed-based segmentation and moving cell detection. We use this result as an initial level-set function to evolve the cell boundaries, refine the delineation, and optimize the final segmentation result. We applied this method to several datasets of fluorescence microscopy images with varying levels of difficulty with respect to cell density, resolution, contrast, and signal-to-noise ratio. We compared the results with those produced by Chan and Vese segmentation, a temporally linked level-set technique, and nonlinear diffusion-based segmentation. We validated all segmentation techniques against reference masks provided by the international Cell Tracking Challenge consortium. The proposed approach delineated cells with an average Dice similarity coefficient of 89 % over a variety of simulated and real fluorescent image sequences. It yielded average improvements of 11 % in segmentation accuracy compared to both strictly spatial and temporally linked Chan-Vese techniques, and 4 % compared to the nonlinear spatio-temporal diffusion method. Despite the wide variation in cell shape, density, mitotic events, and image quality among the datasets, our proposed method produced promising segmentation results. These results indicate the efficiency and robustness of this method especially for mitotic events and low SNR imaging, enabling the application of subsequent quantification tasks.

Adaptive microfluidic gradient generator for quantitative chemotaxis experiments.

PubMed

Anielski, Alexander; Pfannes, Eva K B; Beta, Carsten

2017-03-01

Chemotactic motion in a chemical gradient is an essential cellular function that controls many processes in the living world. For a better understanding and more detailed modelling of the underlying mechanisms of chemotaxis, quantitative investigations in controlled environments are needed. We developed a setup that allows us to separately address the dependencies of the chemotactic motion on the average background concentration and on the gradient steepness of the chemoattractant. In particular, both the background concentration and the gradient steepness can be kept constant at the position of the cell while it moves along in the gradient direction. This is achieved by generating a well-defined chemoattractant gradient using flow photolysis. In this approach, the chemoattractant is released by a light-induced reaction from a caged precursor in a microfluidic flow chamber upstream of the cell. The flow photolysis approach is combined with an automated real-time cell tracker that determines changes in the cell position and triggers movement of the microscope stage such that the cell motion is compensated and the cell remains at the same position in the gradient profile. The gradient profile can be either determined experimentally using a caged fluorescent dye or may be alternatively determined by numerical solutions of the corresponding physical model. To demonstrate the function of this adaptive microfluidic gradient generator, we compare the chemotactic motion of Dictyostelium discoideum cells in a static gradient and in a gradient that adapts to the position of the moving cell.

A two-class self-paced BCI to control a robot in four directions.

PubMed

Ron-Angevin, Ricardo; Velasco-Alvarez, Francisco; Sancha-Ros, Salvador; da Silva-Sauer, Leandro

2011-01-01

In this work, an electroencephalographic analysis-based, self-paced (asynchronous) brain-computer interface (BCI) is proposed to control a mobile robot using four different navigation commands: turn right, turn left, move forward and move back. In order to reduce the probability of misclassification, the BCI is to be controlled with only two mental tasks (relaxed state versus imagination of right hand movements), using an audio-cued interface. Four healthy subjects participated in the experiment. After two sessions controlling a simulated robot in a virtual environment (which allowed the user to become familiar with the interface), three subjects successfully moved the robot in a real environment. The obtained results show that the proposed interface enables control over the robot, even for subjects with low BCI performance. © 2011 IEEE

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal

PubMed Central

Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-01-01

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark–release–recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79–91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. PMID:27440662

Highly-resolved numerical simulations of bed-load transport in a turbulent open-channel flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vowinckel, Bernhard; Kempe, Tobias; Nikora, Vladimir; Jain, Ramandeep; Fröhlich, Jochen

2015-11-01

The study presents the analysis of phase-resolving Direct Numerical Simulations of a horizontal turbulent open-channel flow laden with a large number of spherical particles. These particles have a mobility close to their threshold of incipient motion andare transported in bed-load mode. The coupling of the fluid phase with the particlesis realized by an Immersed Boundary Method. The Double-Averaging Methodology is applied for the first time convolutingthe data into a handy set of quantities averaged in time and space to describe the most prominent flow features.In addition, a systematic study elucidatesthe impact of mobility and sediment supply on the pattern formation of particle clusters ina very large computational domain. A detailed description of fluid quantities links the developed particle patterns to the enhancement of turbulence and to a modified hydraulic resistance. Conditional averaging isapplied toerosion events providingthe processes involved inincipient particle motion. Furthermore, the detection of moving particle clusters as well as their surrounding flow field is addressedby a a moving frameanalysis. Funded by German Research Foundation (DFG), project FR 1593/5-2, computational time provided by ZIH Dresden, Germany, and JSC Juelich, Germany.

Do alcohol excise taxes affect traffic accidents? Evidence from Estonia.

PubMed

Saar, Indrek

2015-01-01

This article examines the association between alcohol excise tax rates and alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia. Monthly time series of traffic accidents involving drunken motor vehicle drivers from 1998 through 2013 were regressed on real average alcohol excise tax rates while controlling for changes in economic conditions and the traffic environment. Specifically, regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors were estimated in order to deal with serial correlation in residuals. Counterfactual models were also estimated in order to check the robustness of the results, using the level of non-alcohol-related traffic accidents as a dependent variable. A statistically significant (P <.01) strong negative relationship between the real average alcohol excise tax rate and alcohol-related traffic accidents was disclosed under alternative model specifications. For instance, the regression model with ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1) errors revealed that a 1-unit increase in the tax rate is associated with a 1.6% decrease in the level of accidents per 100,000 population involving drunk motor vehicle drivers. No similar association was found in the cases of counterfactual models for non-alcohol-related traffic accidents. This article indicates that the level of alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia has been affected by changes in real average alcohol excise taxes during the period 1998-2013. Therefore, in addition to other measures, the use of alcohol taxation is warranted as a policy instrument in tackling alcohol-related traffic accidents.

Association of heart rate variability in taxi drivers with marked changes in particulate air pollution in Beijing in 2008.

PubMed

Wu, Shaowei; Deng, Furong; Niu, Jie; Huang, Qinsheng; Liu, Youcheng; Guo, Xinbiao

2010-01-01

Heart rate variability (HRV), a marker of cardiac autonomic function, has been -associated with particulate matter (PM) air pollution, especially in older patients and those with cardio-vascular diseases. However, the effect of PM exposure on cardiac autonomic function in young, healthy adults has received less attention. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to traffic-related PM with an aerodynamic diameter

Short-Term Mortality Rates during a Decade of Improved Air Quality in Erfurt, Germany

PubMed Central

Breitner, Susanne; Stölzel, Matthias; Cyrys, Josef; Pitz, Mike; Wölke, Gabriele; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Heinrich, Joachim; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Peters, Annette

2009-01-01

Background Numerous studies have shown associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality. Objectives Our goal was to investigate the association of ambient air pollution and daily mortality in Erfurt, Germany, over a 10.5-year period after the German unification, when air quality improved. Methods We obtained daily mortality counts and data on mass concentrations of particulate matter (PM) < 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), gaseous pollutants, and meteorology in Erfurt between October 1991 and March 2002. We obtained ultrafine particle number concentrations (UFP) and mass concentrations of PM < 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from September 1995 to March 2002. We analyzed the data using semiparametric Poisson regression models adjusting for trend, seasonality, influenza epidemics, day of the week, and meteorology. We evaluated cumulative associations between air pollution and mortality using polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models and multiday moving averages of air pollutants. We evaluated changes in the associations over time in time-varying coefficient models. Results Air pollution concentrations decreased over the study period. Cumulative exposure to UFP was associated with increased mortality. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in the 15-day cumulative mean UFP of 7,649 cm−3 was associated with a relative risk (RR) of 1.060 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.008–1.114] for PDL models and an RR/IQR of 1.055 (95% CI, 1.011–1.101) for moving averages. RRs decreased from the mid-1990s to the late 1990s. Conclusion Results indicate an elevated mortality risk from short-term exposure to UFP. They further suggest that RRs for short-term associations of air pollution decreased as pollution control measures were implemented in Eastern Germany. PMID:19337521

Forecasting and prediction of scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, Algeria, using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES The aims of this study were to highlight some epidemiological aspects of scorpion envenomations, to analyse and interpret the available data for Biskra province, Algeria, and to develop a forecasting model for scorpion sting cases in Biskra province, which records the highest number of scorpion stings in Algeria. METHODS In addition to analysing the epidemiological profile of scorpion stings that occurred throughout the year 2013, we used the Box-Jenkins approach to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to the monthly recorded scorpion sting cases in Biskra from 2000 to 2012. RESULTS The epidemiological analysis revealed that scorpion stings were reported continuously throughout the year, with peaks in the summer months. The most affected age group was 15 to 49 years old, with a male predominance. The most prone human body areas were the upper and lower limbs. The majority of cases (95.9%) were classified as mild envenomations. The time series analysis showed that a (5,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 SARIMA model offered the best fit to the scorpion sting surveillance data. This model was used to predict scorpion sting cases for the year 2013, and the fitted data showed considerable agreement with the actual data. CONCLUSIONS SARIMA models are useful for monitoring scorpion sting cases, and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future scorpion sting cases. This knowledge is helpful in predicting whether an unusual situation is developing or not, and could therefore assist decision-makers in strengthening the province’s prevention and control measures and in initiating rapid response measures. PMID:27866407

Adaptive eye-gaze tracking using neural-network-based user profiles to assist people with motor disability.

PubMed

Sesin, Anaelis; Adjouadi, Malek; Cabrerizo, Mercedes; Ayala, Melvin; Barreto, Armando

2008-01-01

This study developed an adaptive real-time human-computer interface (HCI) that serves as an assistive technology tool for people with severe motor disability. The proposed HCI design uses eye gaze as the primary computer input device. Controlling the mouse cursor with raw eye coordinates results in sporadic motion of the pointer because of the saccadic nature of the eye. Even though eye movements are subtle and completely imperceptible under normal circumstances, they considerably affect the accuracy of an eye-gaze-based HCI. The proposed HCI system is novel because it adapts to each specific user's different and potentially changing jitter characteristics through the configuration and training of an artificial neural network (ANN) that is structured to minimize the mouse jitter. This task is based on feeding the ANN a user's initially recorded eye-gaze behavior through a short training session. The ANN finds the relationship between the gaze coordinates and the mouse cursor position based on the multilayer perceptron model. An embedded graphical interface is used during the training session to generate user profiles that make up these unique ANN configurations. The results with 12 subjects in test 1, which involved following a moving target, showed an average jitter reduction of 35%; the results with 9 subjects in test 2, which involved following the contour of a square object, showed an average jitter reduction of 53%. For both results, the outcomes led to trajectories that were significantly smoother and apt at reaching fixed or moving targets with relative ease and within a 5% error margin or deviation from desired trajectories. The positive effects of such jitter reduction are presented graphically for visual appreciation.

A review of mechanical move sprinkler irrigation control and automation technologies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Electronic sensors, equipment controls, and communication protocols have been developed to meet the growing interest in site-specific irrigation using center pivot and lateral move irrigation systems. Onboard and field-distributed sensors can collect data necessary for real-time irrigation manageme...

Constructing Threats and a Need for Control: Textbook Descriptions of a Growing, Moving World Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mikander, Pia; Holm, Gunilla

2014-01-01

The population of the world is growing and moving. The overwhelming majority of people are on the move inside their own country and mostly towards cities while a minority moves from non-Western areas to the West. In Finnish geography, history and social science school textbooks, this mobility tends to be depicted differently depending on whether…

Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

2017-09-01

The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

Fast generation of video holograms of three-dimensional moving objects using a motion compensation-based novel look-up table.

PubMed

Kim, Seung-Cheol; Dong, Xiao-Bin; Kwon, Min-Woo; Kim, Eun-Soo

2013-05-06

A novel approach for fast generation of video holograms of three-dimensional (3-D) moving objects using a motion compensation-based novel-look-up-table (MC-N-LUT) method is proposed. Motion compensation has been widely employed in compression of conventional 2-D video data because of its ability to exploit high temporal correlation between successive video frames. Here, this concept of motion-compensation is firstly applied to the N-LUT based on its inherent property of shift-invariance. That is, motion vectors of 3-D moving objects are extracted between the two consecutive video frames, and with them motions of the 3-D objects at each frame are compensated. Then, through this process, 3-D object data to be calculated for its video holograms are massively reduced, which results in a dramatic increase of the computational speed of the proposed method. Experimental results with three kinds of 3-D video scenarios reveal that the average number of calculated object points and the average calculation time for one object point of the proposed method, have found to be reduced down to 86.95%, 86.53% and 34.99%, 32.30%, respectively compared to those of the conventional N-LUT and temporal redundancy-based N-LUT (TR-N-LUT) methods.

A study of video frame rate on the perception of moving imagery detail

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haines, Richard F.; Chuang, Sherry L.

1993-01-01

The rate at which each frame of color moving video imagery is displayed was varied in small steps to determine what is the minimal acceptable frame rate for life scientists viewing white rats within a small enclosure. Two, twenty five second-long scenes (slow and fast animal motions) were evaluated by nine NASA principal investigators and animal care technicians. The mean minimum acceptable frame rate across these subjects was 3.9 fps both for the slow and fast moving animal scenes. The highest single trial frame rate averaged across all subjects for the slow and the fast scene was 6.2 and 4.8, respectively. Further research is called for in which frame rate, image size, and color/gray scale depth are covaried during the same observation period.

Supervisory Control of Remote Manipulation with Compensation for Moving Target.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-21

Continue on reveree aide if neceeary and Identify by block number) ’The aim of this project is to evaluate automatic compensation for moving tar- gets ...slave control. Operating manipulators in this way is a tiring job and the operator gets exhausted after j a short time of work. The use of the computer...THE MANIPULATION OF MOVING OBJECTS Undersea tasks done by human divers are getting more and more costly and hazardous as they have to be done at

RHIC BPM SYSTEM MODIFICATIONS AND PERFORMANCE.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

SATOGATA, T.; CALAGA, R.; CAMERON, P.

2005-05-16

The RHIC beam position monitor (BPM) system provides independent average orbit and turn-by-turn (TBT) position measurements. In each ring, there are 162 measurement locations per plane (horizontal and vertical) for a total of 648 BPM planes in the RHIC machine. During 2003 and 2004 shutdowns, BPM processing electronics were moved from the RHIC tunnel to controls alcoves to reduce radiation impact, and the analog signal paths of several dozen modules were modified to eliminate gain-switching relays and improve signal stability. This paper presents results of improved system performance, including stability for interaction region beam-based alignment efforts. We also summarize performancemore » of recently-added DSP profile scan capability, and improved million-turn TBT acquisition channels for 10 Hz triplet vibration, nonlinear dynamics, and echo studies.« less

Modelling and Closed-Loop System Identification of a Quadrotor-Based Aerial Manipulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dube, Chioniso; Pedro, Jimoh O.

2018-05-01

This paper presents the modelling and system identification of a quadrotor-based aerial manipulator. The aerial manipulator model is first derived analytically using the Newton-Euler formulation for the quadrotor and Recursive Newton-Euler formulation for the manipulator. The aerial manipulator is then simulated with the quadrotor under Proportional Derivative (PD) control, with the manipulator in motion. The simulation data is then used for system identification of the aerial manipulator. Auto Regressive with eXogenous inputs (ARX) models are obtained from the system identification for linear accelerations \\ddot{X} and \\ddot{Y} and yaw angular acceleration \\ddot{\\psi }. For linear acceleration \\ddot{Z}, and pitch and roll angular accelerations \\ddot{θ } and \\ddot{φ }, Auto Regressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (ARMAX) models are identified.

Self-Trapping Self-Repelling Random Walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grassberger, Peter

2017-10-01

Although the title seems self-contradictory, it does not contain a misprint. The model we study is a seemingly minor modification of the "true self-avoiding walk" model of Amit, Parisi, and Peliti in two dimensions. The walks in it are self-repelling up to a characteristic time T* (which depends on various parameters), but spontaneously (i.e., without changing any control parameter) become self-trapping after that. For free walks, T* is astronomically large, but on finite lattices the transition is easily observable. In the self-trapped regime, walks are subdiffusive and intermittent, spending longer and longer times in small areas until they escape and move rapidly to a new area. In spite of this, these walks are extremely efficient in covering finite lattices, as measured by average cover times.

Running faster causes disaster: trade-offs between speed, manoeuvrability and motor control when running around corners in northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus).

PubMed

Wynn, Melissa L; Clemente, Christofer; Nasir, Ami Fadhillah Amir Abdul; Wilson, Robbie S

2015-02-01

Movement speed is fundamental to all animal behaviour, yet no general framework exists for understanding why animals move at the speeds they do. Even during fitness-defining behaviours like running away from predators, an animal should select a speed that balances the benefits of high speed against the increased probability of mistakes. In this study, we explored this idea by quantifying trade-offs between speed, manoeuvrability and motor control in wild northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus) - a medium-sized carnivorous marsupial native to northern Australia. First, we quantified how running speed affected the probability of crashes when rounding corners of 45, 90 and 135 deg. We found that the faster an individual approached a turn, the higher the probability that they would crash, and these risks were greater when negotiating tighter turns. To avoid crashes, quolls modulated their running speed when they moved through turns of varying angles. Average speed for quolls when sprinting along a straight path was around 4.5 m s(-1) but this decreased linearly to speeds of around 1.5 m s(-1) when running through 135 deg turns. Finally, we explored how an individual's morphology affects their manoeuvrability. We found that individuals with larger relative foot sizes were more manoeuvrable than individuals with smaller relative foot sizes. Thus, movement speed, even during extreme situations like escaping predation, should be based on a compromise between high speed, manoeuvrability and motor control. We advocate that optimal - rather than maximal - performance capabilities underlie fitness-defining behaviours such as escaping predators and capturing prey. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Deceleration-Limiting Roadway Barrier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneider, William C. (Inventor); Locke, P. James (Inventor)

2006-01-01

Roadway barrier system and method are disclosed for decelerating a moving vehicle in a controlled manner and for retaining the decelerated vehicle. A net or mesh of the roadway barrier system receives and captures the moving vehicle. The net or mesh is secured to anchors by energy absorbing straps. The energy absorbing straps deploy under a tensional load to decelerate the moving vehicle, the straps providing a controlled resistance to the tensional load over a predefined displacement or stroke to bring the moving vehicle to rest. Additional features include a sacrificial panel or sheet in front of the net that holds up the net or mesh while deflecting vehicles that collide only tangentially with the roadway barrier system.

Parameter estimation in a human operator describing function model for a two-dimensional tracking task

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanlunteren, A.

1977-01-01

A previously described parameter estimation program was applied to a number of control tasks, each involving a human operator model consisting of more than one describing function. One of these experiments is treated in more detail. It consisted of a two dimensional tracking task with identical controlled elements. The tracking errors were presented on one display as two vertically moving horizontal lines. Each loop had its own manipulator. The two forcing functions were mutually independent and consisted each of 9 sine waves. A human operator model was chosen consisting of 4 describing functions, thus taking into account possible linear cross couplings. From the Fourier coefficients of the relevant signals the model parameters were estimated after alignment, averaging over a number of runs and decoupling. The results show that for the elements in the main loops the crossover model applies. A weak linear cross coupling existed with the same dynamics as the elements in the main loops but with a negative sign.

Random walk of passive tracers among randomly moving obstacles.

PubMed

Gori, Matteo; Donato, Irene; Floriani, Elena; Nardecchia, Ilaria; Pettini, Marco

2016-04-14

This study is mainly motivated by the need of understanding how the diffusion behavior of a biomolecule (or even of a larger object) is affected by other moving macromolecules, organelles, and so on, inside a living cell, whence the possibility of understanding whether or not a randomly walking biomolecule is also subject to a long-range force field driving it to its target. By means of the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) technique the topic of random walk in random environment is here considered in the case of a passively diffusing particle among randomly moving and interacting obstacles. The relevant physical quantity which is worked out is the diffusion coefficient of the passive tracer which is computed as a function of the average inter-obstacles distance. The results reported here suggest that if a biomolecule, let us call it a test molecule, moves towards its target in the presence of other independently interacting molecules, its motion can be considerably slowed down.

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

Online myoelectric control of a dexterous hand prosthesis by transradial amputees.

PubMed

Cipriani, Christian; Antfolk, Christian; Controzzi, Marco; Lundborg, Göran; Rosen, Birgitta; Carrozza, Maria Chiara; Sebelius, Fredrik

2011-06-01

A real-time pattern recognition algorithm based on k-nearest neighbors and lazy learning was used to classify, voluntary electromyography (EMG) signals and to simultaneously control movements of a dexterous artificial hand. EMG signals were superficially recorded by eight pairs of electrodes from the stumps of five transradial amputees and forearms of five able-bodied participants and used online to control a robot hand. Seven finger movements (not involving the wrist) were investigated in this study. The first objective was to understand whether and to which extent it is possible to control continuously and in real-time, the finger postures of a prosthetic hand, using superficial EMG, and a practical classifier, also taking advantage of the direct visual feedback of the moving hand. The second objective was to calculate statistical differences in the performance between participants and groups, thereby assessing the general applicability of the proposed method. The average accuracy of the classifier was 79% for amputees and 89% for able-bodied participants. Statistical analysis of the data revealed a difference in control accuracy based on the aetiology of amputation, type of prostheses regularly used and also between able-bodied participants and amputees. These results are encouraging for the development of noninvasive EMG interfaces for the control of dexterous prostheses.

Tiger beetles pursue prey using a proportional control law with a delay of one half-stride

PubMed Central

Haselsteiner, Andreas F.; Gilbert, Cole; Wang, Z. Jane

2014-01-01

Tiger beetles are fast diurnal predators capable of chasing prey under closed-loop visual guidance. We investigated this control system using statistical analyses of high-speed digital recordings of beetles chasing a moving prey dummy in a laboratory arena. Correlation analyses reveal that the beetle uses a proportional control law in which the angular position of the prey relative to the beetle's body axis drives the beetle's angular velocity with a delay of about 28 ms. The proportionality coefficient or system gain, 12 s−1, is just below critical damping. Pursuit simulations using the derived control law predict angular orientation during pursuits with a residual error of about 7°. This is of the same order of magnitude as the oscillation imposed by the beetle's alternating tripod gait, which was not factored into the control law. The system delay of 28 ms equals a half-stride period, i.e. the time between the touch down of alternating tripods. Based on these results, we propose a physical interpretation of the observed control law: to turn towards its prey, the beetle on average exerts a sideways force proportional to the angular position of the prey measured a half-stride earlier. PMID:24718454

Associations between daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases and ambient fine particulate matter and ozone levels in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yiyi; Zu, Yaqun; Huang, Lin; Zhang, Hongliang; Wang, Changhui; Hu, Jianlin

2018-09-01

Air pollution in China has been very serious during the recent decades. However, few studies have investigated the effects of short-term exposure to PM 2.5 and O 3 on daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases. We examined the effects of PM 2.5 and O 3 on the daily outpatient visits for respiratory diseases, explored the sensitivities of different population subgroups and analyzed the relative risk (RR) of PM 2.5 and O 3 in different seasons in Shanghai during 2013-2016. The generalized linear model (GLM) was applied to analyze the exposure-response relationship between air pollutants (daily average PM 2.5 and daily maximum 8-h average O 3 ), and daily outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases. The sensitivities of males and females at the ages of 15-60 yr-old and 60+ yr-old to the pollutants were also studied for the whole year and for the cold and warm months, respectively. Finally, the results of the single-day lagged model were compared with that of the moving average lag model. At lag 0 day, the RR of respiratory outpatients increased by 0.37% with a 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 . Exposure to PM 2.5 (RR, 1.0047, 95% CI, 1.0032-1.0062) was more sensitive for females than for males (RR, 1.0025, 95% CI, 1.0008-1.0041), and was more sensitive for the 15-60 yr-old (RR, 1.0041, 95% CI, 1.0027-1.0055) than the 60+ yr-old age group (RR, 1.0031, 95% CI, 1.0014-1.0049). O 3 was not significantly associated with respiratory outpatient visits during the warm periods, but was negatively associated during the cold periods. PM 2.5 was more significantly in the cold periods than that in the warm periods. The results indicated that control of PM 2.5 , compared to O 3 , in the cold periods would be more beneficial to the respiratory health in Shanghai. In addition, the single-day lagged model underestimated the relationship between PM 2.5 and O 3 and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases compared to the moving average lag model. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A 12-Year Analysis of Nonbattle Injury Among US Service Members Deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.

PubMed

Le, Tuan D; Gurney, Jennifer M; Nnamani, Nina S; Gross, Kirby R; Chung, Kevin K; Stockinger, Zsolt T; Nessen, Shawn C; Pusateri, Anthony E; Akers, Kevin S

2018-05-30

Nonbattle injury (NBI) among deployed US service members increases the burden on medical systems and results in high rates of attrition, affecting the available force. The possible causes and trends of NBI in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars have, to date, not been comprehensively described. To describe NBI among service members deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, quantify absolute numbers of NBIs and proportion of NBIs within the Department of Defense Trauma Registry, and document the characteristics of this injury category. In this retrospective cohort study, data from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry on 29 958 service members injured in Iraq and Afghanistan from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2014, were obtained. Injury incidence, patterns, and severity were characterized by battle injury and NBI. Trends in NBI were modeled using time series analysis with autoregressive integrated moving average and the weighted moving average method. Statistical analysis was performed from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2014. Primary outcomes were proportion of NBIs and the changes in NBI over time. Among 29 958 casualties (battle injury and NBI) analyzed, 29 003 were in men and 955 were in women; the median age at injury was 24 years (interquartile range, 21-29 years). Nonbattle injury caused 34.1% of total casualties (n = 10 203) and 11.5% of all deaths (206 of 1788). Rates of NBI were higher among women than among men (63.2% [604 of 955] vs 33.1% [9599 of 29 003]; P < .001) and in Operation New Dawn (71.0% [298 of 420]) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (36.3% [6655 of 18 334]) compared with Operation Enduring Freedom (29.0% [3250 of 11 204]) (P < .001). A higher proportion of NBIs occurred in members of the Air Force (66.3% [539 of 810]) and Navy (48.3% [394 of 815]) than in members of the Army (34.7% [7680 of 22 154]) and Marine Corps (25.7% [1584 of 6169]) (P < .001). Leading mechanisms of NBI included falls (2178 [21.3%]), motor vehicle crashes (1921 [18.8%]), machinery or equipment accidents (1283 [12.6%]), blunt objects (1107 [10.8%]), gunshot wounds (728 [7.1%]), and sports (697 [6.8%]), causing predominantly blunt trauma (7080 [69.4%]). The trend in proportion of NBIs did not decrease over time, remaining at approximately 35% (by weighted moving average) after 2006 and approximately 39% by autoregressive integrated moving average. Assuming stable battlefield conditions, the autoregressive integrated moving average model estimated that the proportion of NBIs from 2015 to 2022 would be approximately 41.0% (95% CI, 37.8%-44.3%). In this study, approximately one-third of injuries during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars resulted from NBI, and the proportion of NBIs was steady for 12 years. Understanding the possible causes of NBI during military operations may be useful to target protective measures and safety interventions, thereby conserving fighting strength on the battlefield.

Heat recovery system employing a temperature controlled variable speed fan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, W.T.

1986-05-20

A heat recovery system is described for use in recovering heat from an industrial process producing a heated fluid comprising: a source of inlet air; a housing coupled to the source and including a heat exchanger; means for passing the heated fluid through the heat exchanger; the housing including means for moving a variable volume of air adjustable over a continuous range from the source through the heat exchanger; air discharge means communicating with the housing for discharging air which has passed through the heat exchanger; a control system including first temperature sensing means for sensing the discharge temperature ofmore » the discharge air moving through the discharge means and a control circuit coupled to the first temperature sensing means and to the moving means for varying the volume of air moved in response to the sensed discharge temperature to control the temperature of discharge air passing through the discharge means at a first predetermined value; and the control system including second temperature sensing means for sensing the temperature of the source of inlet air and valve means coupled to and controlled by the control circuit to cause liquid to bypass the heat exchanger when the inlet air temperature rises above a second predetermined value.« less

Trunk-arm coordination in reaching for moving targets in people with Parkinson's disease: comparison between virtual and physical reality.

PubMed

Ma, Hui-Ing; Hwang, Wen-Juh; Wang, Ching-Yi; Fang, Jing-Jing; Leong, Iat-Fai; Wang, Tsui-Ying

2012-10-01

We used a trunk-assisted prehension task to examine the effect of task (reaching for stationary vs. moving targets) and environmental constraints (virtual reality [VR] vs. physical reality) on the temporal control of trunk and arm motions in people with Parkinson's disease (PD). Twenty-four participants with PD and 24 age-matched controls reached for and grasped a ball that was either stationary or moving along a ramp 120% of arm length away. In a similar VR task, participants reached for a virtual ball that was either stationary or moving. Movement speed was measured as trunk and arm movement times (MTs); trunk-arm coordination was measured as onset interval and offset interval between trunk and arm motions, as well as a summarized index-desynchrony score. In both VR and physical reality, the PD group had longer trunk and arm MTs than the control group when reaching for stationary balls (p<.001). When reaching for moving balls in VR and physical reality, however, the PD group had lower trunk and arm MTs, onset intervals, and desynchrony scores (p<.001). For the PD group, VR induced shorter trunk MTs, shorter offset intervals, and lower desynchrony scores than did physical reality when reaching for moving balls (p<.001). These findings suggest that using real moving targets in trunk-assisted prehension tasks improves the speed and synchronization of trunk and arm motions in people with PD, and that using virtual moving targets may induce a movement termination strategy different from that used in physical reality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Indoor Continuous Positioning Algorithm on the Move by Fusing Sensors and Wi-Fi on Smartphones

PubMed Central

Li, Huaiyu; Chen, Xiuwan; Jing, Guifei; Wang, Yuan; Cao, Yanfeng; Li, Fei; Zhang, Xinlong; Xiao, Han

2015-01-01

Wi-Fi indoor positioning algorithms experience large positioning error and low stability when continuously positioning terminals that are on the move. This paper proposes a novel indoor continuous positioning algorithm that is on the move, fusing sensors and Wi-Fi on smartphones. The main innovative points include an improved Wi-Fi positioning algorithm and a novel positioning fusion algorithm named the Trust Chain Positioning Fusion (TCPF) algorithm. The improved Wi-Fi positioning algorithm was designed based on the properties of Wi-Fi signals on the move, which are found in a novel “quasi-dynamic” Wi-Fi signal experiment. The TCPF algorithm is proposed to realize the “process-level” fusion of Wi-Fi and Pedestrians Dead Reckoning (PDR) positioning, including three parts: trusted point determination, trust state and positioning fusion algorithm. An experiment is carried out for verification in a typical indoor environment, and the average positioning error on the move is 1.36 m, a decrease of 28.8% compared to an existing algorithm. The results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce the influence caused by the unstable Wi-Fi signals, and improve the accuracy and stability of indoor continuous positioning on the move. PMID:26690447

Commercial vehicle fleet management and information systems. Phase 1 : interim report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The three-quarter moving composite price index is the weighted average of the indices for three consecutive quarters. The Composite Bid Price Index is composed of six indicator items: common excavation, to indicate the price trend for all roadway exc...

Sweeping Jet Actuator in a Quiescent Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koklu, Mehti; Melton, Latunia P.

2013-01-01

This study presents a detailed analysis of a sweeping jet (fluidic oscillator) actuator. The sweeping jet actuator promises to be a viable flow control actuator candidate due to its simple, no moving part structure and its high momentum, spatially oscillating flow output. Hot-wire anemometer and particle image velocimetry measurements were carried out with an emphasis on understanding the actuator flow field in a quiescent environment. The time averaged, fluctuating, and instantaneous velocity measurements are provided. A modified actuator concept that incorporates high-speed solenoid valves to control the frequency of oscillation enabled phase averaged measurements of the oscillating jet. These measurements reveal that in a given oscillation cycle, the oscillating jet spends more time on each of the Coanda surfaces. In addition, the modified actuator generates four different types of flow fields, namely: a non oscillating downward jet, a non oscillating upward jet, a non oscillating straight jet, and an oscillating jet. The switching from an upward jet to a downward jet is accomplished by providing a single pulse from the solenoid valve. Once the flow is switched, the flow stays there until another pulse is received. The oscillating jet is compared with a non oscillating straight jet, which is a typical planar turbulent jet. The results indicate that the oscillating jet has a higher (5 times) spreading rate, more flow entrainment, and higher velocity fluctuations (equal to the mean velocity).

Neighborhood effects on use of African-American Vernacular English

PubMed Central

Rickford, John R.; Duncan, Greg J.; Gennetian, Lisa A.; Gou, Ray Yun; Greene, Rebecca; Katz, Lawrence F.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Kling, Jeffrey R.; Sanbonmatsu, Lisa; Sanchez-Ordoñez, Andres E.; Sciandra, Matthew; Thomas, Ewart; Ludwig, Jens

2015-01-01

African-American Vernacular English (AAVE) is systematic, rooted in history, and important as an identity marker and expressive resource for its speakers. In these respects, it resembles other vernacular or nonstandard varieties, like Cockney or Appalachian English. But like them, AAVE can trigger discrimination in the workplace, housing market, and schools. Understanding what shapes the relative use of AAVE vs. Standard American English (SAE) is important for policy and scientific reasons. This work presents, to our knowledge, the first experimental estimates of the effects of moving into lower-poverty neighborhoods on AAVE use. We use data on non-Hispanic African-American youth (n = 629) from a large-scale, randomized residential mobility experiment called Moving to Opportunity (MTO), which enrolled a sample of mostly minority families originally living in distressed public housing. Audio recordings of the youth were transcribed and coded for the use of five grammatical and five phonological AAVE features to construct a measure of the proportion of possible instances, or tokens, in which speakers use AAVE rather than SAE speech features. Random assignment to receive a housing voucher to move into a lower-poverty area (the intention-to-treat effect) led youth to live in neighborhoods (census tracts) with an 11 percentage point lower poverty rate on average over the next 10–15 y and reduced the share of AAVE tokens by ∼3 percentage points compared with the MTO control group youth. The MTO effect on AAVE use equals approximately half of the difference in AAVE frequency observed between youth whose parents have a high school diploma and those whose parents do not. PMID:26351663

Neighborhood effects on use of African-American Vernacular English.

PubMed

Rickford, John R; Duncan, Greg J; Gennetian, Lisa A; Gou, Ray Yun; Greene, Rebecca; Katz, Lawrence F; Kessler, Ronald C; Kling, Jeffrey R; Sanbonmatsu, Lisa; Sanchez-Ordoñez, Andres E; Sciandra, Matthew; Thomas, Ewart; Ludwig, Jens

2015-09-22

African-American Vernacular English (AAVE) is systematic, rooted in history, and important as an identity marker and expressive resource for its speakers. In these respects, it resembles other vernacular or nonstandard varieties, like Cockney or Appalachian English. But like them, AAVE can trigger discrimination in the workplace, housing market, and schools. Understanding what shapes the relative use of AAVE vs. Standard American English (SAE) is important for policy and scientific reasons. This work presents, to our knowledge, the first experimental estimates of the effects of moving into lower-poverty neighborhoods on AAVE use. We use data on non-Hispanic African-American youth (n = 629) from a large-scale, randomized residential mobility experiment called Moving to Opportunity (MTO), which enrolled a sample of mostly minority families originally living in distressed public housing. Audio recordings of the youth were transcribed and coded for the use of five grammatical and five phonological AAVE features to construct a measure of the proportion of possible instances, or tokens, in which speakers use AAVE rather than SAE speech features. Random assignment to receive a housing voucher to move into a lower-poverty area (the intention-to-treat effect) led youth to live in neighborhoods (census tracts) with an 11 percentage point lower poverty rate on average over the next 10-15 y and reduced the share of AAVE tokens by ∼3 percentage points compared with the MTO control group youth. The MTO effect on AAVE use equals approximately half of the difference in AAVE frequency observed between youth whose parents have a high school diploma and those whose parents do not.

Three-dimensional surface deformation derived from airborne interferometric UAVSAR: Application to the Slumgullion Landslide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delbridge, Brent G.; Burgmann, Roland; Fielding, Eric; Hensley, Scott; Schulz, William

2016-01-01

In order to provide surface geodetic measurements with “landslide-wide” spatial coverage, we develop and validate a method for the characterization of 3-D surface deformation using the unique capabilities of the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) airborne repeat-pass radar interferometry system. We apply our method at the well-studied Slumgullion Landslide, which is 3.9 km long and moves persistently at rates up to ∼2 cm/day. A comparison with concurrent GPS measurements validates this method and shows that it provides reliable and accurate 3-D surface deformation measurements. The UAVSAR-derived vector velocity field measurements accurately capture the sharp boundaries defining previously identified kinematic units and geomorphic domains within the landslide. We acquired data across the landslide during spring and summer and identify that the landslide moves more slowly during summer except at its head, presumably in response to spatiotemporal variations in snowmelt infiltration. In order to constrain the mechanics controlling landslide motion from surface velocity measurements, we present an inversion framework for the extraction of slide thickness and basal geometry from dense 3-D surface velocity fields. We find that the average depth of the Slumgullion Landslide is 7.5 m, several meters less than previous depth estimates. We show that by considering a viscoplastic rheology, we can derive tighter theoretical bounds on the rheological parameter relating mean horizontal flow rate to surface velocity. Using inclinometer data for slow-moving, clay-rich landslides across the globe, we find a consistent value for the rheological parameter of 0.85 ± 0.08.

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity in Relation to Temperature and Decadal- Length Oscillation Patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2009-01-01

Yearly frequencies of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, their locations of origin, peak wind speeds, average peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and average lowest pressures for the interval 1950-2008 are examined. The effects of El Nino and La Nina on the tropical cyclone parametric values are investigated. Yearly and 10-year moving average (10-yma) values of tropical cyclone parameters are compared against those of temperature and decadal-length oscillation, employing both linear and bi-variate analysis, and first differences in the 10-yma are determined. Discussion of the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season, updating earlier results, is given.

Chess-playing epilepsy: a case report with video-EEG and back averaging.

PubMed

Mann, M W; Gueguen, B; Guillou, S; Debrand, E; Soufflet, C

2004-12-01

A patient suffering from juvenile myoclonic epilepsy experienced myoclonic jerks, fairly regularly, while playing chess. The myoclonus appeared particularly when he had to plan his strategy, to choose between two solutions or while raising the arm to move a chess figure. Video-EEG-polygraphy was performed, with back averaging of the myoclonus registered during a chess match and during neuropsychological testing with Kohs cubes. The EEG spike wave complexes were localised in the fronto-central region. [Published with video sequences].

NGEE Arctic Plant Traits: Shrub Transects, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2016

DOE Data Explorer

Verity Salmon; Colleen Iversen; Peter Thornton; Ma

2017-03-01

Transect data is from point center quarter surveys for shrub density performed in July 2016 at the Kougarok hill slope located at Kougarok Road, Mile Marker 64. For each sample point along the transects, moving averages for shrub density and shrub basal area are provided along with GPS coordinates, average shrub height and active layer depth. The individual height, basal area, and species of surveyed shrubs are also included. Data upload will be completed January 2017.

Considerations for monitoring raptor population trends based on counts of migrants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Titus, K.; Fuller, M.R.; Ruos, J.L.; Meyburg, B-U.; Chancellor, R.D.

1989-01-01

Various problems were identified with standardized hawk count data as annually collected at six sites. Some of the hawk lookouts increased their hours of observation from 1979-1985, thereby confounding the total counts. Data recording and missing data hamper coding of data and their use with modern analytical techniques. Coefficients of variation among years in counts averaged about 40%. The advantages and disadvantages of various analytical techniques are discussed including regression, non-parametric rank correlation trend analysis, and moving averages.

Time series analysis of collective motions in proteins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alakent, Burak; Doruker, Pemra; ćamurdan, Mehmet C.

2004-01-01

The dynamics of α-amylase inhibitor tendamistat around its native state is investigated using time series analysis of the principal components of the Cα atomic displacements obtained from molecular dynamics trajectories. Collective motion along a principal component is modeled as a homogeneous nonstationary process, which is the result of the damped oscillations in local minima superimposed on a random walk. The motion in local minima is described by a stationary autoregressive moving average model, consisting of the frequency, damping factor, moving average parameters and random shock terms. Frequencies for the first 50 principal components are found to be in the 3-25 cm-1 range, which are well correlated with the principal component indices and also with atomistic normal mode analysis results. Damping factors, though their correlation is less pronounced, decrease as principal component indices increase, indicating that low frequency motions are less affected by friction. The existence of a positive moving average parameter indicates that the stochastic force term is likely to disturb the mode in opposite directions for two successive sampling times, showing the modes tendency to stay close to minimum. All these four parameters affect the mean square fluctuations of a principal mode within a single minimum. The inter-minima transitions are described by a random walk model, which is driven by a random shock term considerably smaller than that for the intra-minimum motion. The principal modes are classified into three subspaces based on their dynamics: essential, semiconstrained, and constrained, at least in partial consistency with previous studies. The Gaussian-type distributions of the intermediate modes, called "semiconstrained" modes, are explained by asserting that this random walk behavior is not completely free but between energy barriers.

Acute effects of PM2.5 on lung function parameters in schoolchildren in Nanjing, China: a panel study.

PubMed

Xu, Dandan; Zhang, Yi; Zhou, Lian; Li, Tiantian

2018-03-17

The association between exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) and reduced lung function parameters has been reported in many works. However, few studies have been conducted in developing countries with high levels of air pollution like China, and little attention has been paid to the acute effects of short-term exposure to air pollution on lung function. The study design consisted of a panel comprising 86 children from the same school in Nanjing, China. Four measurements of lung function were performed. A mixed-effects regression model with study participant as a random effect was used to investigate the relationship between PM 2.5 and lung function. An increase in the current day, 1-day and 2-day moving average PM 2.5 concentration was associated with decreases in lung function indicators. The greatest effect of PM 2.5 on lung function was detected at 1-day moving average PM 2.5 exposure. An increase of 10 μg/m 3 in the 1-day moving average PM 2.5 concentration was associated with a 23.22 mL decrease (95% CI: 13.19, 33.25) in Forced Vital Capacity (FVC), a 18.93 mL decrease (95% CI: 9.34, 28.52) in 1-s Forced Expiratory Volume (FEV 1 ), a 29.38 mL/s decrease (95% CI: -0.40, 59.15) in Peak Expiratory Flow (PEF), and a 27.21 mL/s decrease (95% CI: 8.38, 46.04) in forced expiratory flow 25-75% (FEF 25-75% ). The effects of PM 2.5 on lung function had significant lag effects. After an air pollution event, the health effects last for several days and we still need to pay attention to health protection.

Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress: The Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Li, Wenyuan; Wilker, Elissa H; Dorans, Kirsten S; Rice, Mary B; Schwartz, Joel; Coull, Brent A; Koutrakis, Petros; Gold, Diane R; Keaney, John F; Lin, Honghuang; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Benjamin, Emelia J; Mittleman, Murray A

2016-04-28

Short-term exposure to elevated air pollution has been associated with higher risk of acute cardiovascular diseases, with systemic oxidative stress induced by air pollution hypothesized as an important underlying mechanism. However, few community-based studies have assessed this association. Two thousand thirty-five Framingham Offspring Cohort participants living within 50 km of the Harvard Boston Supersite who were not current smokers were included. We assessed circulating biomarkers of oxidative stress including blood myeloperoxidase at the seventh examination (1998-2001) and urinary creatinine-indexed 8-epi-prostaglandin F2α (8-epi-PGF2α) at the seventh and eighth (2005-2008) examinations. We measured fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon, sulfate, nitrogen oxides, and ozone at the Supersite and calculated 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day moving averages of each pollutant. Measured myeloperoxidase and 8-epi-PGF2α were loge transformed. We used linear regression models and linear mixed-effects models with random intercepts for myeloperoxidase and indexed 8-epi-PGF2α, respectively. Models were adjusted for demographic variables, individual- and area-level measures of socioeconomic position, clinical and lifestyle factors, weather, and temporal trend. We found positive associations of PM2.5 and black carbon with myeloperoxidase across multiple moving averages. Additionally, 2- to 7-day moving averages of PM2.5 and sulfate were consistently positively associated with 8-epi-PGF2α. Stronger positive associations of black carbon and sulfate with myeloperoxidase were observed among participants with diabetes than in those without. Our community-based investigation supports an association of select markers of ambient air pollution with circulating biomarkers of oxidative stress. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Evaluating and improving count-based population inference: A case study from 31 years of monitoring Sandhill Cranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2017-01-01

Monitoring animal populations can be difficult. Limited resources often force monitoring programs to rely on unadjusted or smoothed counts as an index of abundance. Smoothing counts is commonly done using a moving-average estimator to dampen sampling variation. These indices are commonly used to inform management decisions, although their reliability is often unknown. We outline a process to evaluate the biological plausibility of annual changes in population counts and indices from a typical monitoring scenario and compare results with a hierarchical Bayesian time series (HBTS) model. We evaluated spring and fall counts, fall indices, and model-based predictions for the Rocky Mountain population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes (Antigone canadensis) by integrating juvenile recruitment, harvest, and survival into a stochastic stage-based population model. We used simulation to evaluate population indices from the HBTS model and the commonly used 3-yr moving average estimator. We found counts of the RMP to exhibit biologically unrealistic annual change, while the fall population index was largely biologically realistic. HBTS model predictions suggested that the RMP changed little over 31 yr of monitoring, but the pattern depended on assumptions about the observational process. The HBTS model fall population predictions were biologically plausible if observed crane harvest mortality was compensatory up to natural mortality, as empirical evidence suggests. Simulations indicated that the predicted mean of the HBTS model was generally a more reliable estimate of the true population than population indices derived using a moving 3-yr average estimator. Practitioners could gain considerable advantages from modeling population counts using a hierarchical Bayesian autoregressive approach. Advantages would include: (1) obtaining measures of uncertainty; (2) incorporating direct knowledge of the observational and population processes; (3) accommodating missing years of data; and (4) forecasting population size.

A new image segmentation method based on multifractal detrended moving average analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Wen; Zou, Rui-biao; Wang, Fang; Su, Le

2015-08-01

In order to segment and delineate some regions of interest in an image, we propose a novel algorithm based on the multifractal detrended moving average analysis (MF-DMA). In this method, the generalized Hurst exponent h(q) is calculated for every pixel firstly and considered as the local feature of a surface. And then a multifractal detrended moving average spectrum (MF-DMS) D(h(q)) is defined by the idea of box-counting dimension method. Therefore, we call the new image segmentation method MF-DMS-based algorithm. The performance of the MF-DMS-based method is tested by two image segmentation experiments of rapeseed leaf image of potassium deficiency and magnesium deficiency under three cases, namely, backward (θ = 0), centered (θ = 0.5) and forward (θ = 1) with different q values. The comparison experiments are conducted between the MF-DMS method and other two multifractal segmentation methods, namely, the popular MFS-based and latest MF-DFS-based methods. The results show that our MF-DMS-based method is superior to the latter two methods. The best segmentation result for the rapeseed leaf image of potassium deficiency and magnesium deficiency is from the same parameter combination of θ = 0.5 and D(h(- 10)) when using the MF-DMS-based method. An interesting finding is that the D(h(- 10)) outperforms other parameters for both the MF-DMS-based method with centered case and MF-DFS-based algorithms. By comparing the multifractal nature between nutrient deficiency and non-nutrient deficiency areas determined by the segmentation results, an important finding is that the gray value's fluctuation in nutrient deficiency area is much severer than that in non-nutrient deficiency area.

Brain-Computer Interfaces for 1-D and 2-D Cursor Control: Designs Using Volitional Control of the EEG Spectrum or Steady-State Visual Evoked Potentials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trejo, Leonard J.; Matthews, Bryan; Rosipal, Roman

2005-01-01

We have developed and tested two EEG-based brain-computer interfaces (BCI) for users to control a cursor on a computer display. Our system uses an adaptive algorithm, based on kernel partial least squares classification (KPLS), to associate patterns in multichannel EEG frequency spectra with cursor controls. Our first BCI, Target Practice, is a system for one-dimensional device control, in which participants use biofeedback to learn voluntary control of their EEG spectra. Target Practice uses a KF LS classifier to map power spectra of 30-electrode EEG signals to rightward or leftward position of a moving cursor on a computer display. Three subjects learned to control motion of a cursor on a video display in multiple blocks of 60 trials over periods of up to six weeks. The best subject s average skill in correct selection of the cursor direction grew from 58% to 88% after 13 training sessions. Target Practice also implements online control of two artifact sources: a) removal of ocular artifact by linear subtraction of wavelet-smoothed vertical and horizontal EOG signals, b) control of muscle artifact by inhibition of BCI training during periods of relatively high power in the 40-64 Hz band. The second BCI, Think Pointer, is a system for two-dimensional cursor control. Steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEP) are triggered by four flickering checkerboard stimuli located in narrow strips at each edge of the display. The user attends to one of the four beacons to initiate motion in the desired direction. The SSVEP signals are recorded from eight electrodes located over the occipital region. A KPLS classifier is individually calibrated to map multichannel frequency bands of the SSVEP signals to right-left or up-down motion of a cursor on a computer display. The display stops moving when the user attends to a central fixation point. As for Target Practice, Think Pointer also implements wavelet-based online removal of ocular artifact; however, in Think Pointer muscle artifact is controlled via adaptive normalization of the SSVEP. Training of the classifier requires about three minutes. We have tested our system in real-time operation in three human subjects. Across subjects and sessions, control accuracy ranged from 80% to 100% correct with lags of 1-5 seconds for movement initiation and turning.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coruh, M; Ewell, L; Demez, N

Purpose: To estimate the dose delivered to a moving lung tumor by proton therapy beams of different modulation types, and compare with Monte Carlo predictions. Methods: A radiology support devices (RSD) phantom was irradiated with therapeutic proton radiation beams using two different types of modulation: uniform scanning (US) and double scattered (DS). The Eclipse© dose plan was designed to deliver 1.00Gy to the isocenter of a static ∼3×3×3cm (27cc) tumor in the phantom with 100% coverage. The peak to peak amplitude of tumor motion varied from 0.0 to 2.5cm. The radiation dose was measured with an ion-chamber (CC-13) located withinmore » the tumor. The time required to deliver the radiation dose varied from an average of 65s for the DS beams to an average of 95s for the US beams. Results: The amount of radiation dose varied from 100% (both US and DS) to the static tumor down to approximately 92% for the moving tumor. The ratio of US dose to DS dose ranged from approximately 1.01 for the static tumor, down to 0.99 for the 2.5cm moving tumor. A Monte Carlo simulation using TOPAS included a lung tumor with 4.0cm of peak to peak motion. In this simulation, the dose received by the tumor varied by ∼40% as the period of this motion varied from 1s to 4s. Conclusion: The radiation dose deposited to a moving tumor was less than for a static tumor, as expected. At large (2.5cm) amplitudes, the DS proton beams gave a dose closer to the desired dose than the US beams, but equal within experimental uncertainty. TOPAS Monte Carlo simulation can give insight into the moving tumor — dose relationship. This work was supported in part by the Philips corporation.« less

Subnanosecond control of excitons in coupled quantum well nanostructures: Photonic storage and Exciton Conveyer devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winbow, Alexander Graham

Indirect excitons in GaAs coupled quantum well nanostructures are a versatile system for fundamental study of cold neutral bosonic gases and demonstration of novel optoelectronic devices based on excitons --- a bound electron--hole pair --- rather than electrons. Indirect exciton lifetimes range from nanoseconds to microseconds and cool rapidly after photoexcitation to the lattice temperature. Lithographically-patterned electrodes enable design of potential energy landscapes, and both energy and lifetime can be controlled in situ, rapidly, on timescales much shorter than the exciton lifetime. Such intrinsically optoelectronic devices can operate at speeds relevant to optical networks, and later be fabricated in other semiconductors for higher-temperature operation. Two different kinds of devices are demonstrated: Photon storage --- an optical memory --- with 250 ps rise time of the readout optical signal and storage time reaching microseconds was implemented with indirect excitons in CQW. The storage and release of photons was controlled by the gate voltage pulse, and the transient processes in the CQW studied by measuring the kinetics of the exciton emission spectra. This control of excitons on timescales much shorter than the exciton lifetime demonstrates the feasibility of studying excitons in in situ controlled electrostatic traps. The Exciton Conveyer is a laterally moving electrostatic lattice potential for actively transporting excitons. Generated by laterally modulated electrodes, the potential velocity and depth are controlled in situ by frequency and voltage. We observed exciton transport characterized by average exciton cloud spatial extension over several tens of microns, and observed dynamical localization--delocalization transitions for the excitons in the conveyer: In the localization regime of deeper potentials and moderate exciton density, excitons are moved by the conveyer; in the delocalized regime of shallower lattice potential or high exciton density, excitons do not follow the conveyer motion. We explore conveyer velocities both slower and faster than phonon velocities. Realizing subnanosecond manipulations of exciton energy and lifetime required versatile control of pulsed and multiple AC RF electrical signals in optical, liquid helium cryogenic systems. Considerable detail is presented of design, construction, and test of flexible experimental apparatus.

Consistent and efficient processing of ADCP streamflow measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, David S.; Constantinescu, George; Garcia, Marcelo H.; Hanes, Dan

2016-01-01

The use of Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) from a moving boat is a commonly used method for measuring streamflow. Currently, the algorithms used to compute the average depth, compute edge discharge, identify invalid data, and estimate velocity and discharge for invalid data vary among manufacturers. These differences could result in different discharges being computed from identical data. Consistent computational algorithm, automated filtering, and quality assessment of ADCP streamflow measurements that are independent of the ADCP manufacturer are being developed in a software program that can process ADCP moving-boat discharge measurements independent of the ADCP used to collect the data.

Comparison of virtual reality versus physical reality on movement characteristics of persons with Parkinson's disease: effects of moving targets.

PubMed

Wang, Ching-Yi; Hwang, Wen-Juh; Fang, Jing-Jing; Sheu, Ching-Fan; Leong, Iat-Fai; Ma, Hui-Ing

2011-08-01

To compare the performance of reaching for stationary and moving targets in virtual reality (VR) and physical reality in persons with Parkinson's disease (PD). A repeated-measures design in which all participants reached in physical reality and VR under 5 conditions: 1 stationary ball condition and 4 conditions with the ball moving at different speeds. University research laboratory. Persons with idiopathic PD (n=29) and age-matched controls (n=25). Not applicable. Success rates and kinematics of arm movement (movement time, amplitude of peak velocity, and percentage of movement time for acceleration phase). In both VR and physical reality, the PD group had longer movement time (P<.001) and lower peak velocity (P<.001) than the controls when reaching for stationary balls. When moving targets were provided, the PD group improved more than the controls did in movement time (P<.001) and peak velocity (P<.001), and reached a performance level similar to that of the controls. Except for the fastest moving ball condition (0.5-s target viewing time), which elicited worse performance in VR than in physical reality, most cueing conditions in VR elicited performance generally similar to those in physical reality. Although slower than the controls when reaching for stationary balls, persons with PD increased movement speed in response to fast moving balls in both VR and physical reality. This suggests that with an appropriate choice of cueing speed, VR is a promising tool for providing visual motion stimuli to improve movement speed in persons with PD. More research on the long-term effect of this type of VR training program is needed. Copyright © 2011 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Rotatable Quality Control Phantom for Evaluating the Performance of Flat Panel Detectors in Imaging Moving Objects.

PubMed

Haga, Yoshihiro; Chida, Koichi; Inaba, Yohei; Kaga, Yuji; Meguro, Taiichiro; Zuguchi, Masayuki

2016-02-01

As the use of diagnostic X-ray equipment with flat panel detectors (FPDs) has increased, so has the importance of proper management of FPD systems. To ensure quality control (QC) of FPD system, an easy method for evaluating FPD imaging performance for both stationary and moving objects is required. Until now, simple rotatable QC phantoms have not been available for the easy evaluation of the performance (spatial resolution and dynamic range) of FPD in imaging moving objects. We developed a QC phantom for this purpose. It consists of three thicknesses of copper and a rotatable test pattern of piano wires of various diameters. Initial tests confirmed its stable performance. Our moving phantom is very useful for QC of FPD images of moving objects because it enables visual evaluation of image performance (spatial resolution and dynamic range) easily.

Switching moving boundary models for two-phase flow evaporators and condensers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonilla, Javier; Dormido, Sebastián; Cellier, François E.

2015-03-01

The moving boundary method is an appealing approach for the design, testing and validation of advanced control schemes for evaporators and condensers. When it comes to advanced control strategies, not only accurate but fast dynamic models are required. Moving boundary models are fast low-order dynamic models, and they can describe the dynamic behavior with high accuracy. This paper presents a mathematical formulation based on physical principles for two-phase flow moving boundary evaporator and condenser models which support dynamic switching between all possible flow configurations. The models were implemented in a library using the equation-based object-oriented Modelica language. Several integrity tests in steady-state and transient predictions together with stability tests verified the models. Experimental data from a direct steam generation parabolic-trough solar thermal power plant is used to validate and compare the developed moving boundary models against finite volume models.

Method and apparatus for hybrid position/force control of multi-arm cooperating robots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayati, Samad A. (Inventor)

1989-01-01

Two or more robotic arms having end effectors rigidly attached to an object to be moved are disclosed. A hybrid position/force control system is provided for driving each of the robotic arms. The object to be moved is represented as having a total mass that consists of the actual mass of the object to be moved plus the mass of the moveable arms that are rigidly attached to the moveable object. The arms are driven in a positive way by the hybrid control system to assure that each arm shares in the position/force applied to the object. The burden of actuation is shared by each arm in a non-conflicting way as the arm independently control the position of, and force upon, a designated point on the object.

76 FR 28240 - Notice of Proposed Information Collection for Public Comment; Moving To Work Demonstration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-16

... Information Collection for Public Comment; Moving To Work Demonstration AGENCY: Office of the Assistant... lists the following information: Title of Proposal: Moving to Work Demonstration. OMB Control Number... to Work (MTW) demonstration agreements (33 at the time of submission of this request) the [[Page...

Integrating WEPP into the WEPS infrastructure

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) share a common modeling philosophy, that of moving away from primarily empirically based models based on indices or "average conditions", and toward a more process based approach which can be evaluated using ac...

Model Identification of Integrated ARMA Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stadnytska, Tetiana; Braun, Simone; Werner, Joachim

2008-01-01

This article evaluates the Smallest Canonical Correlation Method (SCAN) and the Extended Sample Autocorrelation Function (ESACF), automated methods for the Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model selection commonly available in current versions of SAS for Windows, as identification tools for integrated processes. SCAN and ESACF can…

Integration of social information by human groups

PubMed Central

Granovskiy, Boris; Gold, Jason M.; Sumpter, David; Goldstone, Robert L.

2015-01-01

We consider a situation in which individuals search for accurate decisions without direct feedback on their accuracy but with information about the decisions made by peers in their group. The “wisdom of crowds” hypothesis states that the average judgment of many individuals can give a good estimate of, for example, the outcomes of sporting events and the answers to trivia questions. Two conditions for the application of wisdom of crowds are that estimates should be independent and unbiased. Here, we study how individuals integrate social information when answering trivia questions with answers that range between 0 and 100% (e.g., ‘What percentage of Americans are left-handed?’). We find that, consistent with the wisdom of crowds hypothesis, average performance improves with group size. However, individuals show a consistent bias to produce estimates that are insufficiently extreme. We find that social information provides significant, albeit small, improvement to group performance. Outliers with answers far from the correct answer move towards the position of the group mean. Given that these outliers also tend to be nearer to 50% than do the answers of other group members, this move creates group polarization away from 50%. By looking at individual performance over different questions we find that some people are more likely to be affected by social influence than others. There is also evidence that people differ in their competence in answering questions, but lack of competence is not significantly correlated with willingness to change guesses. We develop a mathematical model based on these results that postulates a cognitive process in which people first decide whether to take into account peer guesses, and if so, to move in the direction of these guesses. The size of the move is proportional to the distance between their own guess and the average guess of the group. This model closely approximates the distribution of guess movements and shows how outlying incorrect opinions can be systematically removed from a group resulting, in some situations, in improved group performance. However, improvement is only predicted for cases in which the initial guesses of individuals in the group are biased. PMID:26189568

Integration of Social Information by Human Groups.

PubMed

Granovskiy, Boris; Gold, Jason M; Sumpter, David J T; Goldstone, Robert L

2015-07-01

We consider a situation in which individuals search for accurate decisions without direct feedback on their accuracy, but with information about the decisions made by peers in their group. The "wisdom of crowds" hypothesis states that the average judgment of many individuals can give a good estimate of, for example, the outcomes of sporting events and the answers to trivia questions. Two conditions for the application of wisdom of crowds are that estimates should be independent and unbiased. Here, we study how individuals integrate social information when answering trivia questions with answers that range between 0% and 100% (e.g., "What percentage of Americans are left-handed?"). We find that, consistent with the wisdom of crowds hypothesis, average performance improves with group size. However, individuals show a consistent bias to produce estimates that are insufficiently extreme. We find that social information provides significant, albeit small, improvement to group performance. Outliers with answers far from the correct answer move toward the position of the group mean. Given that these outliers also tend to be nearer to 50% than do the answers of other group members, this move creates group polarization away from 50%. By looking at individual performance over different questions we find that some people are more likely to be affected by social influence than others. There is also evidence that people differ in their competence in answering questions, but lack of competence is not significantly correlated with willingness to change guesses. We develop a mathematical model based on these results that postulates a cognitive process in which people first decide whether to take into account peer guesses, and if so, to move in the direction of these guesses. The size of the move is proportional to the distance between their own guess and the average guess of the group. This model closely approximates the distribution of guess movements and shows how outlying incorrect opinions can be systematically removed from a group resulting, in some situations, in improved group performance. However, improvement is only predicted for cases in which the initial guesses of individuals in the group are biased. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Psychometric Evaluation of Lexical Diversity Indices: Assessing Length Effects.

PubMed

Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Wright, Heather Harris; Green, Samuel B

2015-06-01

Several novel techniques have been developed recently to assess the breadth of a speaker's vocabulary exhibited in a language sample. The specific aim of this study was to increase our understanding of the validity of the scores generated by different lexical diversity (LD) estimation techniques. Four techniques were explored: D, Maas, measure of textual lexical diversity, and moving-average type-token ratio. Four LD indices were estimated for language samples on 4 discourse tasks (procedures, eventcasts, story retell, and recounts) from 442 adults who are neurologically intact. The resulting data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The scores for measure of textual lexical diversity and moving-average type-token ratio were stronger indicators of the LD of the language samples. The results for the other 2 techniques were consistent with the presence of method factors representing construct-irrelevant sources. These findings offer a deeper understanding of the relative validity of the 4 estimation techniques and should assist clinicians and researchers in the selection of LD measures of language samples that minimize construct-irrelevant sources.

Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.

2014-09-12

Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressivemore » Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.« less

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network

PubMed Central

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient. PMID:28246527

Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

2014-09-01

Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network.

PubMed

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Gao, Shangce; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.

An Improved Harmonic Current Detection Method Based on Parallel Active Power Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Zhiwu; Xie, Yunxiang; Wang, Yingpin; Guan, Yuanpeng; Li, Lanfang; Zhang, Xiaoyu

2017-05-01

Harmonic detection technology plays an important role in the applications of active power filter. The accuracy and real-time performance of harmonic detection are the precondition to ensure the compensation performance of Active Power Filter (APF). This paper proposed an improved instantaneous reactive power harmonic current detection algorithm. The algorithm uses an improved ip -iq algorithm which is combined with the moving average value filter. The proposed ip -iq algorithm can remove the αβ and dq coordinate transformation, decreasing the cost of calculation, simplifying the extraction process of fundamental components of load currents, and improving the detection speed. The traditional low-pass filter is replaced by the moving average filter, detecting the harmonic currents more precisely and quickly. Compared with the traditional algorithm, the THD (Total Harmonic Distortion) of the grid currents is reduced from 4.41% to 3.89% for the simulations and from 8.50% to 4.37% for the experiments after the improvement. The results show the proposed algorithm is more accurate and efficient.

Prognostics of slurry pumps based on a moving-average wear degradation index and a general sequential Monte Carlo method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Tse, Peter W.

2015-05-01

Slurry pumps are commonly used in oil-sand mining for pumping mixtures of abrasive liquids and solids. These operations cause constant wear of slurry pump impellers, which results in the breakdown of the slurry pumps. This paper develops a prognostic method for estimating remaining useful life of slurry pump impellers. First, a moving-average wear degradation index is proposed to assess the performance degradation of the slurry pump impeller. Secondly, the state space model of the proposed health index is constructed. A general sequential Monte Carlo method is employed to derive the parameters of the state space model. The remaining useful life of the slurry pump impeller is estimated by extrapolating the established state space model to a specified alert threshold. Data collected from an industrial oil sand pump were used to validate the developed method. The results show that the accuracy of the developed method improves as more data become available.

Analysis Monthly Import of Palm Oil Products Using Box-Jenkins Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Nurul F. Y.; Khalid, Kamil; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Roslan, Rozaini; Che-Him, Norziha

2018-04-01

The palm oil industry has been an important component of the national economy especially the agriculture sector. The aim of this study is to identify the pattern of import of palm oil products, to model the time series using Box-Jenkins model and to forecast the monthly import of palm oil products. The method approach is included in the statistical test for verifying the equivalence model and statistical measurement of three models, namely Autoregressive (AR) model, Moving Average (MA) model and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The model identification of all product import palm oil is different in which the AR(1) was found to be the best model for product import palm oil while MA(3) was found to be the best model for products import palm kernel oil. For the palm kernel, MA(4) was found to be the best model. The results forecast for the next four months for products import palm oil, palm kernel oil and palm kernel showed the most significant decrease compared to the actual data.

Do the pollution related to high-traffic roads in urbanised areas pose a significant threat to the local population?

PubMed

Kobza, Joanna; Geremek, Mariusz

2017-01-01

Many large neighbourhoods are located near heavy-traffic roads; therefore, it is necessary to control the levels of air pollution near road exposure. The primary air pollutants emitted by motor vehicles are CO, NO 2 and PM. Various investigations identify key health outcomes to be consistently associated with NO 2 and CO. The objective of this study was the measurement-based assessment for determining whether by high-traffic roads, such as motorways and express ways, and the concentrations of CO and NO 2 are within normal limits and do not pose threat to the local population. Average daily values (arithmetic values calculated for 1-h values within 24 h or less, depending on result availability) were measured for concentrations of NO 2 and CO by automatic stations belonging to the Voivodship Environmental Protection Inspectorate in Katowice, in areas with similar dominant source of pollutant emission. The measurements were made in three sites: near the motorway and expressway, where the average daily traffic intensity is 100983 and 35414 of vehicles relatively. No evidence was found of exceeding average daily values equal to the maximum allowable NO 2 concentration due to the protection of human health in the measurement area of the stations. No daily average values exceeding the admissible CO concentration (8-h moving average) were noted in the examined period. The results clearly show lack of hazards for general population health in terms of increased concentrations of CO and NO 2 compounds that are closely related to high intensity car traffic found on selected motorways and speedways located near the city centres.

An experimental test of the role of control in spider fear.

PubMed

Healey, Andrew; Mansell, Warren; Tai, Sara

2017-06-01

It is well established that uncontrollable adverse experiences lead to increased distress, but the role of client control during psychological interventions such as exposure is less clear. Earlier studies reported inconsistent findings, most likely owing to variations in the way client control was manipulated, degree of exposure, the outcome variables chosen and the follow-up periods used. Importantly, studies to date had suggested to participants that approaching their fears was beneficial thereby biasing their choices and these studies had not measured change beyond the laboratory. We recruited 96 spider-fearful student participants (mean age=22; SD=5.9; Range=18-45; 86 female). The experimental design allowed full choice over their degree of exposure, and manipulated the degree of control as the extent to which their movement of a joystick influenced their virtual distance from a moving spider image. Those with high control were yoked with a low control counterpart to ensure equal amounts of exposure. Measures were elicited at baseline, post-exposure, and at follow-up. As predicted, compared to low control participants, those with high control over exposure approached closer toward a spider post-exposure and reported less spider avoidance after an average of 17days. No group differences were found in physiological or subjective distress during the task, nor in distress and dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GOBF-ARMA based model predictive control for an ideal reactive distillation column.

PubMed

Seban, Lalu; Kirubakaran, V; Roy, B K; Radhakrishnan, T K

2015-11-01

This paper discusses the control of an ideal reactive distillation column (RDC) using model predictive control (MPC) based on a combination of deterministic generalized orthonormal basis filter (GOBF) and stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. Reactive distillation (RD) integrates reaction and distillation in a single process resulting in process and energy integration promoting green chemistry principles. Improved selectivity of products, increased conversion, better utilization and control of reaction heat, scope for difficult separations and the avoidance of azeotropes are some of the advantages that reactive distillation offers over conventional technique of distillation column after reactor. The introduction of an in situ separation in the reaction zone leads to complex interactions between vapor-liquid equilibrium, mass transfer rates, diffusion and chemical kinetics. RD with its high order and nonlinear dynamics, and multiple steady states is a good candidate for testing and verification of new control schemes. Here a combination of GOBF-ARMA models is used to catch and represent the dynamics of the RDC. This GOBF-ARMA model is then used to design an MPC scheme for the control of product purity of RDC under different operating constraints and conditions. The performance of proposed modeling and control using GOBF-ARMA based MPC is simulated and analyzed. The proposed controller is found to perform satisfactorily for reference tracking and disturbance rejection in RDC. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Sijun; Chen, Jiaping; Wang, Jianming; Wu, Zhuchao; Wu, Weihua; Xu, Zhiwei; Hu, Wenbiao; Xu, Fei; Tong, Shilu; Shen, Hongbing

2017-10-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China and an accurate prediction of epidemic can improve the effectiveness of HFMD control. This study aims to develop a weather-based forecasting model for HFMD using the information on climatic variables and HFMD surveillance in Nanjing, China. Daily data on HFMD cases and meteorological variables between 2010 and 2015 were acquired from the Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed and validated by dividing HFMD infection data into two datasets: the data from 2010 to 2013 were used to construct a model and those from 2014 to 2015 were used to validate it. Moreover, we used weekly prediction for the data between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015 and leave-1-week-out prediction was used to validate the performance of model prediction. SARIMA (2,0,0)52 associated with the average temperature at lag of 1 week appeared to be the best model (R 2 = 0.936, BIC = 8.465), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. In the validation of the constructed model, the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well between 2014 and 2015. There was a high agreement rate between the predicted values and the observed values (sensitivity 80%, specificity 96.63%). This study suggests that the SARIMA model with average temperature could be used as an important tool for early detection and prediction of HFMD outbreaks in Nanjing, China.

Acoustic power of a moving point source in a moving medium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, J. E., III; Sarris, I. I.

1976-01-01

The acoustic power output of a moving point-mass source in an acoustic medium which is in uniform motion and infinite in extent is examined. The acoustic medium is considered to be a homogeneous fluid having both zero viscosity and zero thermal conductivity. Two expressions for the acoustic power output are obtained based on a different definition cited in the literature for the average energy-flux vector in an acoustic medium in uniform motion. The acoustic power output of the source is found by integrating the component of acoustic intensity vector in the radial direction over the surface of an infinitely long cylinder which is within the medium and encloses the line of motion of the source. One of the power expressions is found to give unreasonable results even though the flow is uniform.

Human speed perception is contrast dependent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, Leland S.; Thompson, Peter

1992-01-01

When two parallel gratings moving at the same speed are presented simultaneously, the lower-contrast grating appears slower. This misperception is evident across a wide range of contrasts (2.5-50 percent) and does not appear to saturate (e.g. a 50 percent contrast grating appears slower than a 70 percent contrast grating moving at the same speed). On average, a 70 percent contrast grating must be slowed by 35 percent to match a 10 percent contrast grating moving at 2 deg/sec (N = 6). Furthermore, the effect is largely independent of the absolute contrast level and is a quasi-linear function of log contrast ratio. A preliminary parametric study shows that, although spatial frequency has little effect, relative orientation is important. Finally, the misperception of relative speed appears lessened when the stimuli to be matched are presented sequentially.

Traction force microscopy in rapidly moving cells reveals separate roles for ROCK and MLCK in the mechanics of retraction.

PubMed

Morin, Timothy R; Ghassem-Zadeh, Sean A; Lee, Juliet

2014-08-15

Retraction is a major rate-limiting step in cell motility, particularly in slow moving cell types that form large stable adhesions. Myosin II dependent contractile forces are thought to facilitate detachment by physically pulling up the rear edge. However, retraction can occur in the absence of myosin II activity in cell types that form small labile adhesions. To investigate the role of contractile force generation in retraction, we performed traction force microscopy during the movement of fish epithelial keratocytes. By correlating changes in local traction stress at the rear with the area retracted, we identified four distinct modes of retraction. "Recoil" retractions are preceded by a rise in local traction stress, while rear edge is temporarily stuck, followed by a sharp drop in traction stress upon detachment. This retraction type was most common in cells generating high average traction stress. In "pull" type retractions local traction stress and area retracted increase concomitantly. This was the predominant type of retraction in keratocytes and was observed mostly in cells generating low average traction stress. "Continuous" type retractions occur without any detectable change in traction stress, and are seen in cells generating low average traction stress. In contrast, to many other cell types, "release" type retractions occur in keratocytes following a decrease in local traction stress. Our identification of distinct modes of retraction suggests that contractile forces may play different roles in detachment that are related to rear adhesion strength. To determine how the regulation of contractility via MLCK or Rho kinase contributes to the mechanics of detachment, inhibitors were used to block or augment these pathways. Modulation of MLCK activity led to the most rapid change in local traction stress suggesting its importance in regulating attachment strength. Surprisingly, Rho kinase was not required for detachment, but was essential for localizing retraction to the rear. We suggest that in keratocytes MLCK and Rho kinase play distinct, complementary roles in the respective temporal and spatial control of rear detachment that is essential for maintaining rapid motility. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A parallel row-based algorithm with error control for standard-cell replacement on a hypercube multiprocessor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sargent, Jeff Scott

1988-01-01

A new row-based parallel algorithm for standard-cell placement targeted for execution on a hypercube multiprocessor is presented. Key features of this implementation include a dynamic simulated-annealing schedule, row-partitioning of the VLSI chip image, and two novel new approaches to controlling error in parallel cell-placement algorithms; Heuristic Cell-Coloring and Adaptive (Parallel Move) Sequence Control. Heuristic Cell-Coloring identifies sets of noninteracting cells that can be moved repeatedly, and in parallel, with no buildup of error in the placement cost. Adaptive Sequence Control allows multiple parallel cell moves to take place between global cell-position updates. This feedback mechanism is based on an error bound derived analytically from the traditional annealing move-acceptance profile. Placement results are presented for real industry circuits and the performance is summarized of an implementation on the Intel iPSC/2 Hypercube. The runtime of this algorithm is 5 to 16 times faster than a previous program developed for the Hypercube, while producing equivalent quality placement. An integrated place and route program for the Intel iPSC/2 Hypercube is currently being developed.

Projection of controlled repeatable real-time moving targets to test and evaluate motion imagery quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scopatz, Stephen D.; Mendez, Michael; Trent, Randall

2015-05-01

The projection of controlled moving targets is key to the quantitative testing of video capture and post processing for Motion Imagery. This presentation will discuss several implementations of target projectors with moving targets or apparent moving targets creating motion to be captured by the camera under test. The targets presented are broadband (UV-VIS-IR) and move in a predictable, repeatable and programmable way; several short videos will be included in the presentation. Among the technical approaches will be targets that move independently in the camera's field of view, as well targets that change size and shape. The development of a rotating IR and VIS 4 bar target projector with programmable rotational velocity and acceleration control for testing hyperspectral cameras is discussed. A related issue for motion imagery is evaluated by simulating a blinding flash which is an impulse of broadband photons in fewer than 2 milliseconds to assess the camera's reaction to a large, fast change in signal. A traditional approach of gimbal mounting the camera in combination with the moving target projector is discussed as an alternative to high priced flight simulators. Based on the use of the moving target projector several standard tests are proposed to provide a corresponding test to MTF (resolution), SNR and minimum detectable signal at velocity. Several unique metrics are suggested for Motion Imagery including Maximum Velocity Resolved (the measure of the greatest velocity that is accurately tracked by the camera system) and Missing Object Tolerance (measurement of tracking ability when target is obscured in the images). These metrics are applicable to UV-VIS-IR wavelengths and can be used to assist in camera and algorithm development as well as comparing various systems by presenting the exact scenes to the cameras in a repeatable way.

Neural Control of a Tracking Task via Attention-Gated Reinforcement Learning for Brain-Machine Interfaces.

PubMed

Wang, Yiwen; Wang, Fang; Xu, Kai; Zhang, Qiaosheng; Zhang, Shaomin; Zheng, Xiaoxiang

2015-05-01

Reinforcement learning (RL)-based brain machine interfaces (BMIs) enable the user to learn from the environment through interactions to complete the task without desired signals, which is promising for clinical applications. Previous studies exploited Q-learning techniques to discriminate neural states into simple directional actions providing the trial initial timing. However, the movements in BMI applications can be quite complicated, and the action timing explicitly shows the intention when to move. The rich actions and the corresponding neural states form a large state-action space, imposing generalization difficulty on Q-learning. In this paper, we propose to adopt attention-gated reinforcement learning (AGREL) as a new learning scheme for BMIs to adaptively decode high-dimensional neural activities into seven distinct movements (directional moves, holdings and resting) due to the efficient weight-updating. We apply AGREL on neural data recorded from M1 of a monkey to directly predict a seven-action set in a time sequence to reconstruct the trajectory of a center-out task. Compared to Q-learning techniques, AGREL could improve the target acquisition rate to 90.16% in average with faster convergence and more stability to follow neural activity over multiple days, indicating the potential to achieve better online decoding performance for more complicated BMI tasks.

Direct evidence for a position input to the smooth pursuit system.

PubMed

Blohm, Gunnar; Missal, Marcus; Lefèvre, Philippe

2005-07-01

When objects move in our environment, the orientation of the visual axis in space requires the coordination of two types of eye movements: saccades and smooth pursuit. The principal input to the saccadic system is position error, whereas it is velocity error for the smooth pursuit system. Recently, it has been shown that catch-up saccades to moving targets are triggered and programmed by using velocity error in addition to position error. Here, we show that, when a visual target is flashed during ongoing smooth pursuit, it evokes a smooth eye movement toward the flash. The velocity of this evoked smooth movement is proportional to the position error of the flash; it is neither influenced by the velocity of the ongoing smooth pursuit eye movement nor by the occurrence of a saccade, but the effect is absent if the flash is ignored by the subject. Furthermore, the response started around 85 ms after the flash presentation and decayed with an average time constant of 276 ms. Thus this is the first direct evidence of a position input to the smooth pursuit system. This study shows further evidence for a coupling between saccadic and smooth pursuit systems. It also suggests that there is an interaction between position and velocity error signals in the control of more complex movements.

What triggers catch-up saccades during visual tracking?

PubMed

de Brouwer, Sophie; Yuksel, Demet; Blohm, Gunnar; Missal, Marcus; Lefèvre, Philippe

2002-03-01

When tracking moving visual stimuli, primates orient their visual axis by combining two kinds of eye movements, smooth pursuit and saccades, that have very different dynamics. Yet, the mechanisms that govern the decision to switch from one type of eye movement to the other are still poorly understood, even though they could bring a significant contribution to the understanding of how the CNS combines different kinds of control strategies to achieve a common motor and sensory goal. In this study, we investigated the oculomotor responses to a large range of different combinations of position error and velocity error during visual tracking of moving stimuli in humans. We found that the oculomotor system uses a prediction of the time at which the eye trajectory will cross the target, defined as the "eye crossing time" (T(XE)). The eye crossing time, which depends on both position error and velocity error, is the criterion used to switch between smooth and saccadic pursuit, i.e., to trigger catch-up saccades. On average, for T(XE) between 40 and 180 ms, no saccade is triggered and target tracking remains purely smooth. Conversely, when T(XE) becomes smaller than 40 ms or larger than 180 ms, a saccade is triggered after a short latency (around 125 ms).

A dragline-forming mobile robot inspired by spiders.

PubMed

Wang, Liyu; Culha, Utku; Iida, Fumiya

2014-03-01

Mobility of wheeled or legged machines can be significantly increased if they are able to move from a solid surface into a three-dimensional space. Although that may be achieved by addition of flying mechanisms, the payload fraction will be the limiting factor in such hybrid mobile machines for many applications. Inspired by spiders producing draglines to assist locomotion, the paper proposes an alternative mobile technology where a robot achieves locomotion from a solid surface into a free space. The technology resembles the dragline production pathway in spiders to a technically feasible degree and enables robots to move with thermoplastic spinning of draglines. As an implementation, a mobile robot has been prototyped with thermoplastic adhesives as source material of the draglines. Experimental results show that a dragline diameter range of 1.17-5.27 mm was achievable by the 185 g mobile robot in descending locomotion from the solid surface of a hanging structure with a power consumption of 4.8 W and an average speed of 5.13 cm min(-1). With an open-loop controller consisting of sequences of discrete events, the robot has demonstrated repeatable dragline formation with a relative deviation within -4% and a length close to the metre scale.

A self-adaption compensation control for hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages based on Pi-sigma fuzzy neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Rui; Zhou, Miaolei

2018-04-01

Piezo-actuated stages are widely applied in the high-precision positioning field nowadays. However, the inherent hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages greatly deteriorates the positioning accuracy of piezo-actuated stages. This paper first utilizes a nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model based on the Pi-sigma fuzzy neural network (PSFNN) to construct an online rate-dependent hysteresis model for describing the hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages. In order to improve the convergence rate of PSFNN and modeling precision, we adopt the gradient descent algorithm featuring three different learning factors to update the model parameters. The convergence of the NARMAX model based on the PSFNN is analyzed effectively. To ensure that the parameters can converge to the true values, the persistent excitation condition is considered. Then, a self-adaption compensation controller is designed for eliminating the hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages. A merit of the proposed controller is that it can directly eliminate the complex hysteresis nonlinearity in piezo-actuated stages without any inverse dynamic models. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and control methods, a set of comparative experiments are performed on piezo-actuated stages. Experimental results show that the proposed modeling and control methods have excellent performance.

Structural Equation Modeling of Multivariate Time Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

du Toit, Stephen H. C.; Browne, Michael W.

2007-01-01

The covariance structure of a vector autoregressive process with moving average residuals (VARMA) is derived. It differs from other available expressions for the covariance function of a stationary VARMA process and is compatible with current structural equation methodology. Structural equation modeling programs, such as LISREL, may therefore be…

ARMA-Based SEM When the Number of Time Points T Exceeds the Number of Cases N: Raw Data Maximum Likelihood.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamaker, Ellen L.; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2003-01-01

Demonstrated, through simulation, that stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models may be fitted readily when T>N, using normal theory raw maximum likelihood structural equation modeling. Also provides some illustrations based on real data. (SLD)

Are U.S. Military Interventions Contagious over Time? Intervention Timing and Its Implications for Force Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

29 3.5. ARIMA Models , Temporal Clustering of Conflicts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.6...39 3.9. ARIMA Models ...variance across a distribution. Autoregressive integrated moving average ( ARIMA ) models are used with time-series data sets and are designed to capture

Use of Time-Series, ARIMA Designs to Assess Program Efficacy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Braden, Jeffery P.; And Others

1990-01-01

Illustrates use of time-series designs for determining efficacy of interventions with fictitious data describing drug-abuse prevention program. Discusses problems and procedures associated with time-series data analysis using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models. Example illustrates application of ARIMA analysis for…

Cost and efficacy comparison of integrated pest management strategies with monthly spray insecticide applications for German cockroach (Dictyoptera: Blattellidae) control in public housing.

PubMed

Miller, D M; Meek, F

2004-04-01

The long-term costs and efficacy of two treatment methodologies for German cockroach, Blattella germanica (L.), control were compared in the public housing environment. The "traditional" treatment for German cockroaches consisted of monthly baseboard and crack and crevice treatment (TBCC) by using spray and dust formulation insecticides. The integrated pest management treatment (IPM) involved initial vacuuming of apartments followed by monthly or quarterly applications of baits and insect growth regulator (IGR) devices. Cockroach populations in the IPM treatment were also monitored with sticky traps. Technician time and the amount of product applied were used to measure cost in both treatments. Twenty-four hour sticky trap catch was used as an indicator of treatment efficacy. The cost of the IPM treatment was found to be significantly greater than the traditional treatment, particularly at the initiation of the test. In the first month (clean-out), the average cost per apartment unit was dollar 14.60, whereas the average cost of a TBCC unit was dollar 2.75. In the second month of treatment, the average cost of IPM was still significantly greater than the TBCC cost. However, after month 4 the cost of the two treatments was no longer significantly different because many of the IPM apartments were moved to a quarterly treatment schedule. To evaluate the long-term costs of the two treatments over the entire year, technician time and product quantities were averaged over all units treated within the 12-mo test period (total 600 U per treatment). The average per unit cost of the IPM treatment was (dollar 4.06). The average IPM cost was significantly greater than that of the TBCC treatment at dollar 1.50 per unit. Although the TBCC was significantly less expensive than the IPM treatment, it was also less effective. Trap catch data indicated that the TBCC treatment had little, if any, effect on the cockroach populations over the course of the year. Cockroach populations in the TBCC treatment remained steady for the first 5 mo of the test and then had a threefold increase during the summer. Cockroach populations in the IPM treatment were significantly reduced from an average of 24.7 cockroaches per unit before treatment to an average 3.9 cockroaches per unit in month 4. The suppressed cockroach populations (< 5 per unit) in the IPM treatment remained constant for the remaining 8 mo of the test.

Geochemistry and geohydrology of the West Decker and Big Sky coal-mining areas, southeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, R.E.

1984-01-01

In the West Decker Mine area, water levels west of the mine at post-mining equilibrium may be almost 12 feet higher than pre-mining levels. Dissolved-solids concentration in water from coal aquifers is about 1,400 milligrams per liter and from mine spoils is about 2,500 milligrams per liter. About 13 years will be required for ground water moving at an average velocity of 2 feet per day to flow from the spoils to the Tongue River Reservoir. The increase in dissolved-solids load to the reservoir due to mining will be less than 1 percent. In the Big Sky Mine area, water levels at post-mining equilibrium will closely resemble pre-mining levels. Dissolved-solids concentration in water from coal aquifers is about 2,700 milligrams per liter and from spoils is about 3,700 milligrams per liter. About 36 to 60 years will be required for ground water moving at an average velocity of 1.2 feet per day to flow from the spoils to Rosebud Creek. The average annual increase in dissolved-solids load to the creek due to mining will be about 2 percent, although a greater increase probably will occur during summer months when flow in the creek is low. (USGS)

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

PubMed

Kuussaari, Mikko; Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-07-27

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark-release-recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79-91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. © 2016 The Author(s).

Adult survival of Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in a Pacific colony

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Scott A.; Roberts, Bay D.; Fadely, Brian S.

1993-01-01

Breeding Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla survived at a mean annual rate of 0.926 in four years at a colony in Alaska. Survival rates observed in sexed males (0.930) and females (0.937) did not differ significantly. The rate of return among nonbreeding Kittiwakes (0.839) was lower than that of known breeders, presumably because more nonbreeders moved away from the study plots where they were marked. Individual nonbreeders frequented sites up to 5 km apart on the same island, while a few established breeders moved up to 2.5 km between years. Mate retention in breeding Kittiwakes averaged 69% in three years. Among pairs that split, the cause of changing mates was about equally divided between death (46%) and divorce (54%). Average adult life expectancy was estimated at 13.0 years. Combined with annual productivity averaging 0.17 chick per nest, the observed survival was insufficient for maintaining population size. Rather, an irregular decline observed in the study colony since 1981 is consistent with the model of a closed population with little or no recruitment. Compared to their Atlantic counterparts, Pacific Kittiwakes have low productivity and high survival. The question arises whether differences reflect phenotypic plasticity or genetically determined variation in population parameters.

Ants determine their next move at rest: motor planning and causality in complex systems.

PubMed

Hunt, Edmund R; Baddeley, Roland J; Worley, Alan; Sendova-Franks, Ana B; Franks, Nigel R

2016-01-01

To find useful work to do for their colony, individual eusocial animals have to move, somehow staying attentive to relevant social information. Recent research on individual Temnothorax albipennis ants moving inside their colony's nest found a power-law relationship between a movement's duration and its average speed; and a universal speed profile for movements showing that they mostly fluctuate around a constant average speed. From this predictability it was inferred that movement durations are somehow determined before the movement itself. Here, we find similar results in lone T. albipennis ants exploring a large arena outside the nest, both when the arena is clean and when it contains chemical information left by previous nest-mates. This implies that these movement characteristics originate from the same individual neural and/or physiological mechanism(s), operating without immediate regard to social influences. However, the presence of pheromones and/or other cues was found to affect the inter-event speed correlations. Hence we suggest that ants' motor planning results in intermittent response to the social environment: movement duration is adjusted in response to social information only between movements, not during them. This environmentally flexible, intermittently responsive movement behaviour points towards a spatially allocated division of labour in this species. It also prompts more general questions on collective animal movement and the role of intermittent causation from higher to lower organizational levels in the stability of complex systems.

Reinforcement learning for partially observable dynamic processes: adaptive dynamic programming using measured output data.

PubMed

Lewis, F L; Vamvoudakis, Kyriakos G

2011-02-01

Approximate dynamic programming (ADP) is a class of reinforcement learning methods that have shown their importance in a variety of applications, including feedback control of dynamical systems. ADP generally requires full information about the system internal states, which is usually not available in practical situations. In this paper, we show how to implement ADP methods using only measured input/output data from the system. Linear dynamical systems with deterministic behavior are considered herein, which are systems of great interest in the control system community. In control system theory, these types of methods are referred to as output feedback (OPFB). The stochastic equivalent of the systems dealt with in this paper is a class of partially observable Markov decision processes. We develop both policy iteration and value iteration algorithms that converge to an optimal controller that requires only OPFB. It is shown that, similar to Q -learning, the new methods have the important advantage that knowledge of the system dynamics is not needed for the implementation of these learning algorithms or for the OPFB control. Only the order of the system, as well as an upper bound on its "observability index," must be known. The learned OPFB controller is in the form of a polynomial autoregressive moving-average controller that has equivalent performance with the optimal state variable feedback gain.

Missed detection of significant positive and negative shifts in gentamicin assay: implications for routine laboratory quality practices.

PubMed

Koerbin, Gus; Liu, Jiakai; Eigenstetter, Alex; Tan, Chin Hon; Badrick, Tony; Loh, Tze Ping

2018-02-15

A product recall was issued for the Roche/Hitachi Cobas Gentamicin II assays on 25 th May 2016 in Australia, after a 15 - 20% positive analytical shift was discovered. Laboratories were advised to employ the Thermo Fisher Gentamicin assay as an alternative. Following the reintroduction of the revised assay on 12 th September 2016, a second reagent recall was made on 20 th March 2017 after the discovery of a 20% negative analytical shift due to erroneous instrument adjustment factor. The practices of an index laboratory were examined to determine how the analytical shifts evaded detection by routine internal quality control (IQC) and external quality assurance (EQA) systems. The ability of the patient result-based approaches, including moving average (MovAvg) and moving sum of outliers (MovSO) approaches in detecting these shifts were examined. Internal quality control data of the index laboratory were acceptable prior to the product recall. The practice of adjusting IQC target following a change in assay method resulted in the missed negative shift when the revised Roche assay was reintroduced. While the EQA data of the Roche subgroup showed clear negative bias relative to other laboratory methods, the results were considered as possible 'matrix effect'. The MovAvg method detected the positive shift before the product recall. The MovSO did not detect the negative shift in the index laboratory but did so in another laboratory 5 days before the second product recall. There are gaps in current laboratory quality practices that leave room for analytical errors to evade detection.

Effects of Visual Speech on Early Auditory Evoked Fields - From the Viewpoint of Individual Variance.

PubMed

Yahata, Izumi; Kawase, Tetsuaki; Kanno, Akitake; Hidaka, Hiroshi; Sakamoto, Shuichi; Nakasato, Nobukazu; Kawashima, Ryuta; Katori, Yukio

2017-01-01

The effects of visual speech (the moving image of the speaker's face uttering speech sound) on early auditory evoked fields (AEFs) were examined using a helmet-shaped magnetoencephalography system in 12 healthy volunteers (9 males, mean age 35.5 years). AEFs (N100m) in response to the monosyllabic sound /be/ were recorded and analyzed under three different visual stimulus conditions, the moving image of the same speaker's face uttering /be/ (congruent visual stimuli) or uttering /ge/ (incongruent visual stimuli), and visual noise (still image processed from speaker's face using a strong Gaussian filter: control condition). On average, latency of N100m was significantly shortened in the bilateral hemispheres for both congruent and incongruent auditory/visual (A/V) stimuli, compared to the control A/V condition. However, the degree of N100m shortening was not significantly different between the congruent and incongruent A/V conditions, despite the significant differences in psychophysical responses between these two A/V conditions. Moreover, analysis of the magnitudes of these visual effects on AEFs in individuals showed that the lip-reading effects on AEFs tended to be well correlated between the two different audio-visual conditions (congruent vs. incongruent visual stimuli) in the bilateral hemispheres but were not significantly correlated between right and left hemisphere. On the other hand, no significant correlation was observed between the magnitudes of visual speech effects and psychophysical responses. These results may indicate that the auditory-visual interaction observed on the N100m is a fundamental process which does not depend on the congruency of the visual information.

A Novel Mu Rhythm-based Brain Computer Interface Design that uses a Programmable System on Chip.

PubMed

Joshi, Rohan; Saraswat, Prateek; Gajendran, Rudhram

2012-01-01

This paper describes the system design of a portable and economical mu rhythm based Brain Computer Interface which employs Cypress Semiconductors Programmable System on Chip (PSoC). By carrying out essential processing on the PSoC, the use of an extra computer is eliminated, resulting in considerable cost savings. Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 and PSoC Designer 5.01 are employed in developing the software for the system, the hardware being custom designed. In order to test the usability of the BCI, preliminary testing is carried out by training three subjects who were able to demonstrate control over their electroencephalogram by moving a cursor present at the center of the screen towards the indicated direction with an average accuracy greater than 70% and a bit communication rate of up to 7 bits/min.

Selection of Hidden Layer Neurons and Best Training Method for FFNN in Application of Long Term Load Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Navneet K.; Singh, Asheesh K.; Tripathy, Manoj

2012-05-01

For power industries electricity load forecast plays an important role for real-time control, security, optimal unit commitment, economic scheduling, maintenance, energy management, and plant structure planning etc. A new technique for long term load forecasting (LTLF) using optimized feed forward artificial neural network (FFNN) architecture is presented in this paper, which selects optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer as well as the best training method for the case study. The prediction performance of proposed technique is evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of Thailand private electricity consumption and forecasted data. The results obtained are compared with the results of classical auto-regressive (AR) and moving average (MA) methods. It is, in general, observed that the proposed method is prediction wise more accurate.

Optimization of seasonal ARIMA models using differential evolution - simulated annealing (DESA) algorithm in forecasting dengue cases in Baguio City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Rizavel C.; Addawe, Joel M.; Magadia, Joselito C.

2016-10-01

Accurate forecasting of dengue cases would significantly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This paper attempts to provide useful models in forecasting dengue epidemic specific to the young and adult population of Baguio City. To capture the seasonal variations in dengue incidence, this paper develops a robust modeling approach to identify and estimate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models in the presence of additive outliers. Since the least squares estimators are not robust in the presence of outliers, we suggest a robust estimation based on winsorized and reweighted least squares estimators. A hybrid algorithm, Differential Evolution - Simulated Annealing (DESA), is used to identify and estimate the parameters of the optimal SARIMA model. The method is applied to the monthly reported dengue cases in Baguio City, Philippines.

[Prediction of schistosomiasis infection rates of population based on ARIMA-NARNN model].

PubMed

Ke-Wei, Wang; Yu, Wu; Jin-Ping, Li; Yu-Yu, Jiang

2016-07-12

To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model-nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (ARIMA-NARNN) model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. The ARIMA model, NARNN model and ARIMA-NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from January 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province, China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were compared. Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4, respectively. The ARIMA-NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis infection rates of population, which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

Thermal signature identification system (TheSIS): a spread spectrum temperature cycling method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merritt, Scott

2015-03-01

NASA GSFC's Thermal Signature Identification System (TheSIS) 1) measures the high order dynamic responses of optoelectronic components to direct sequence spread-spectrum temperature cycling, 2) estimates the parameters of multiple autoregressive moving average (ARMA) or other models the of the responses, 3) and selects the most appropriate model using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Using the AIC-tested model and parameter vectors from TheSIS, one can 1) select high-performing components on a multivariate basis, i.e., with multivariate Figures of Merit (FOMs), 2) detect subtle reversible shifts in performance, and 3) investigate irreversible changes in component or subsystem performance, e.g. aging. We show examples of the TheSIS methodology for passive and active components and systems, e.g. fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) and DFB lasers with coupled temperature control loops, respectively.

A Novel Mu Rhythm-based Brain Computer Interface Design that uses a Programmable System on Chip

PubMed Central

Joshi, Rohan; Saraswat, Prateek; Gajendran, Rudhram

2012-01-01

This paper describes the system design of a portable and economical mu rhythm based Brain Computer Interface which employs Cypress Semiconductors Programmable System on Chip (PSoC). By carrying out essential processing on the PSoC, the use of an extra computer is eliminated, resulting in considerable cost savings. Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 and PSoC Designer 5.01 are employed in developing the software for the system, the hardware being custom designed. In order to test the usability of the BCI, preliminary testing is carried out by training three subjects who were able to demonstrate control over their electroencephalogram by moving a cursor present at the center of the screen towards the indicated direction with an average accuracy greater than 70% and a bit communication rate of up to 7 bits/min. PMID:23493871

The measurement of carbon monoxide and methane in the national capital air quality control region. II - Meteorological conditions and chromatographic and spectrometric results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamontagne, R. A.; Swinnerton, J. W.; Wilkniss, P. E.; Bressan, D. J.; Lebel, P. J.; Goldstein, H. W.

1976-01-01

The meteorological conditions during this program consisted of a stagnant high pressure system which was subsequently replaced by southward moving Canadian air. This change in air masses produced distinct changes in the ambient CO concentrations. Ground level concentrations decreased from an average of 1.3 ppm at the beginning of the experiment to 0.2 ppm at the end. Vertical profiles obtained during the experiment showed decreases in the CO concentrations with altitude. Agreement of gas chromatography data for CO and CH4 by NASA and NRL was within 5% for the concentrations encountered. Results from NASA's Infrared Fourier Spectrometer agreed with the gas chromatographic results both in trends and concentrations of CO and CH4 observed with the passing frontal system.

Is single room hospital accommodation associated with differences in healthcare-associated infection, falls, pressure ulcers or medication errors? A natural experiment with non-equivalent controls

PubMed Central

Maben, Jill; Murrells, Trevor; Griffiths, Peter

2016-01-01

Objectives A wide range of patient benefits have been attributed to single room hospital accommodation including a reduction in adverse patient safety events. However, studies have been limited to the US with limited evidence from elsewhere. The aim of this study was to assess the impact on safety outcomes of the move to a newly built all single room acute hospital. Methods A natural experiment investigating the move to 100% single room accommodation in acute assessment, surgical and older people’s wards. Move to 100% single room accommodation compared to ‘steady state’ and ‘new build’ control hospitals. Falls, pressure ulcer, medication error, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridium difficile rates from routine data sources were measured over 36 months. Results Five of 15 time series in the wards that moved to single room accommodation revealed changes that coincided with the move to the new all single room hospital: specifically, increased fall, pressure ulcer and Clostridium difficile rates in the older people’s ward, and temporary increases in falls and medication errors in the acute assessment unit. However, because the case mix of the older people’s ward changed, and because the increase in falls and medication errors on the acute assessment ward did not last longer than six months, no clear effect of single rooms on the safety outcomes was demonstrated. There were no changes to safety events coinciding with the move at the new build control site. Conclusion For all changes in patient safety events that coincided with the move to single rooms, we found plausible alternative explanations such as case-mix change or disruption as a result of the re-organization of services after the move. The results provide no evidence of either benefit or harm from all single room accommodation in terms of safety-related outcomes, although there may be short-term risks associated with a move to single rooms. PMID:26811373

Is single room hospital accommodation associated with differences in healthcare-associated infection, falls, pressure ulcers or medication errors? A natural experiment with non-equivalent controls.

PubMed

Simon, Michael; Maben, Jill; Murrells, Trevor; Griffiths, Peter

2016-07-01

A wide range of patient benefits have been attributed to single room hospital accommodation including a reduction in adverse patient safety events. However, studies have been limited to the US with limited evidence from elsewhere. The aim of this study was to assess the impact on safety outcomes of the move to a newly built all single room acute hospital. A natural experiment investigating the move to 100% single room accommodation in acute assessment, surgical and older people's wards. Move to 100% single room accommodation compared to 'steady state' and 'new build' control hospitals. Falls, pressure ulcer, medication error, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridium difficile rates from routine data sources were measured over 36 months. Five of 15 time series in the wards that moved to single room accommodation revealed changes that coincided with the move to the new all single room hospital: specifically, increased fall, pressure ulcer and Clostridium difficile rates in the older people's ward, and temporary increases in falls and medication errors in the acute assessment unit. However, because the case mix of the older people's ward changed, and because the increase in falls and medication errors on the acute assessment ward did not last longer than six months, no clear effect of single rooms on the safety outcomes was demonstrated. There were no changes to safety events coinciding with the move at the new build control site. For all changes in patient safety events that coincided with the move to single rooms, we found plausible alternative explanations such as case-mix change or disruption as a result of the re-organization of services after the move. The results provide no evidence of either benefit or harm from all single room accommodation in terms of safety-related outcomes, although there may be short-term risks associated with a move to single rooms. © The Author(s) 2016.

Effects of virtual reality training on functional reaching movements in people with Parkinson's disease: a randomized controlled pilot trial.

PubMed

Ma, Hui-Ing; Hwang, Wen-Juh; Fang, Jing-Jing; Kuo, Jui-Kun; Wang, Ching-Yi; Leong, Iat-Fai; Wang, Tsui-Ying

2011-10-01

To investigate whether practising reaching for virtual moving targets would improve motor performance in people with Parkinson's disease. Randomized pretest-posttest control group design. A virtual reality laboratory in a university setting. Thirty-three adults with Parkinson's disease. The virtual reality training required 60 trials of reaching for fast-moving virtual balls with the dominant hand. The control group had 60 practice trials turning pegs with their non-dominant hand. Pretest and posttest required reaching with the dominant hand to grasp real stationary balls and balls moving at different speeds down a ramp. Success rates and kinematic data (movement time, peak velocity and percentage of movement time for acceleration phase) from pretest and posttest were recorded to determine the immediate transfer effects. Compared with the control group, the virtual reality training group became faster (F = 9.08, P = 0.005) and more forceful (F = 9.36, P = 0.005) when reaching for real stationary balls. However, there was no significant difference in success rate or movement kinematics between the two groups when reaching for real moving balls. A short virtual reality training programme improved the movement speed of discrete aiming tasks when participants reached for real stationary objects. However, the transfer effect was minimal when reaching for real moving objects.

Electromagnetic variable degrees of freedom actuator systems and methods

DOEpatents

Montesanti, Richard C [Pleasanton, CA; Trumper, David L [Plaistow, NH; Kirtley, Jr., James L.

2009-02-17

The present invention provides a variable reluctance actuator system and method that can be adapted for simultaneous rotation and translation of a moving element by applying a normal-direction magnetic flux on the moving element. In a beneficial example arrangement, the moving element includes a swing arm that carries a cutting tool at a set radius from an axis of rotation so as to produce a rotary fast tool servo that provides a tool motion in a direction substantially parallel to the surface-normal of a workpiece at the point of contact between the cutting tool and workpiece. An actuator rotates a swing arm such that a cutting tool moves toward and away from a mounted rotating workpiece in a controlled manner in order to machine the workpiece. Position sensors provide rotation and displacement information for a swing arm to a control system. A control system commands and coordinates motion of the fast tool servo with the motion of a spindle, rotating table, cross-feed slide, and in feed slide of a precision lathe.

Unsteady Aerodynamic Flow Control of Moving Platforms

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-29

aerodynamic forces and moments effected by fluidic actuation on the flow boundaries of stationary and moving platforms. Aerodynamic forces and...Control is effected fluidically by interactions of azimuthally- and streamwise-segmented individually-addressable synthetic jet actuators with...fundamental flow mechanisms that are associated with transitory aerodynamic forces and moments effected by fluidic actuation on the flow boundaries of

SU-D-201-04: Evaluation of Elekta Agility MLC Performance Using Statistical Process Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers, SM; Balderson, MJ; Letourneau, D

2016-06-15

Purpose: to evaluate the performance and stability of the Elekta Agility MLC model using an automated quality control (QC) test in combination with statistical process control tools. Methods: Leaf positions were collected daily for 11 Elekta units over 5–19 months using the automated QC test, which analyzes 23 MV images to determine the location of MLC leaves relative to the radiation isocenter. The leaf positions are measured at 5 nominal positions, and images are acquired at collimator 0° and 180° to capture all MLC leaves in the field-of-view. Leaf positioning accuracy was assessed using individual and moving range control charts.more » Control limits were recomputed following MLC recalibration (occurred 1–2 times for 4 units). Specification levels of ±0.5, ±1 and ±1.5mm were tested. The mean and range of duration between out-of-control and out-of-specification events were determined. Results: Leaf position varied little over time, as confirmed by very tight individual control limits (mean ±0.19mm, range 0.09–0.44). Mean leaf position error was −0.03mm (range −0.89–0.83). Due to sporadic out-of-control events, the mean in-control duration was 3.3 days (range 1–23). Data stayed within ±1mm specification for 205 days on average (range 3–372) and within ±1.5mm for the entire date range. Measurements stayed within ±0.5mm for 1 day on average (range 0–17); however, our MLC leaves were not calibrated to this level of accuracy. Conclusion: The Elekta Agility MLC model was found to perform with high stability, as evidenced by the tight control limits. The in-specification durations support the current recommendation of monthly MLC QC tests with a ±1mm tolerance. Future work is on-going to determine if Agility performance can be optimized further using high-frequency QC test results to drive recalibration frequency. Factors that can affect leaf positioning accuracy, including beam spot motion, leaf gain calibration, drifting leaves, and image artifacts, are under investigation.« less

Permeation of limonene through disposable nitrile gloves using a dextrous robot hand

PubMed Central

Banaee, Sean; S Que Hee, Shane

2017-01-01

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the permeation of the low-volatile solvent limonene through different disposable, unlined, unsupported, nitrile exam whole gloves (blue, purple, sterling, and lavender, from Kimberly-Clark). Methods: This study utilized a moving and static dextrous robot hand as part of a novel dynamic permeation system that allowed sampling at specific times. Quantitation of limonene in samples was based on capillary gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and the internal standard method (4-bromophenol). Results: The average post-permeation thicknesses (before reconditioning) for all gloves for both the moving and static hand were more than 10% of the pre-permeation ones (P≤0.05), although this was not so on reconditioning. The standardized breakthrough times and steady-state permeation periods were similar for the blue, purple, and sterling gloves. Both methods had similar sensitivity. The lavender glove showed a higher permeation rate (0.490±0.031 μg/cm2/min) for the moving robotic hand compared to the non-moving hand (P≤0.05), this being ascribed to a thickness threshold. Conclusions: Permeation parameters for the static and dynamic robot hand models indicate that both methods have similar sensitivity in detecting the analyte during permeation and the blue, purple, and sterling gloves behave similarly during the permeation process whether moving or non-moving. PMID:28111415

The Spin Move: A Reliable and Cost-Effective Gowning Technique for the 21st Century.

PubMed

Ochiai, Derek H; Adib, Farshad

2015-04-01

Operating room efficiency (ORE) and utilization are considered one of the most crucial components of quality improvement in every hospital. We introduced a new gowning technique that could optimize ORE. The Spin Move quickly and efficiently wraps a surgical gown around the surgeon's body. This saves the operative time expended through the traditional gowning techniques. In the Spin Move, while the surgeon is approaching the scrub nurse, he or she uses the left heel as the fulcrum. The torque, which is generated by twisting the right leg around the left leg, helps the surgeon to close the gown as quickly and safely as possible. From 2003 to 2012, the Spin Move was performed in 1,725 consecutive procedures with no complication. The estimated average time was 5.3 and 7.8 seconds for the Spin Move and traditional gowning, respectively. The estimated time saving for the senior author during this period was 71.875 minutes. Approximately 20,000 orthopaedic surgeons practice in the United States. If this technique had been used, 23,958 hours could have been saved. The money saving could have been $14,374,800.00 (23,958 hours × $600/operating room hour) during the past 10 years. The Spin Move is easy to perform and reproducible. It saves operating room time and increases ORE.

The Spin Move: A Reliable and Cost-Effective Gowning Technique for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Ochiai, Derek H.; Adib, Farshad

2015-01-01

Operating room efficiency (ORE) and utilization are considered one of the most crucial components of quality improvement in every hospital. We introduced a new gowning technique that could optimize ORE. The Spin Move quickly and efficiently wraps a surgical gown around the surgeon's body. This saves the operative time expended through the traditional gowning techniques. In the Spin Move, while the surgeon is approaching the scrub nurse, he or she uses the left heel as the fulcrum. The torque, which is generated by twisting the right leg around the left leg, helps the surgeon to close the gown as quickly and safely as possible. From 2003 to 2012, the Spin Move was performed in 1,725 consecutive procedures with no complication. The estimated average time was 5.3 and 7.8 seconds for the Spin Move and traditional gowning, respectively. The estimated time saving for the senior author during this period was 71.875 minutes. Approximately 20,000 orthopaedic surgeons practice in the United States. If this technique had been used, 23,958 hours could have been saved. The money saving could have been $14,374,800.00 (23,958 hours × $600/operating room hour) during the past 10 years. The Spin Move is easy to perform and reproducible. It saves operating room time and increases ORE. PMID:26052490

Optimal Path Determination for Flying Vehicle to Search an Object

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heru Tjahjana, R.; Heri Soelistyo U, R.; Ratnasari, L.; Irawanto, B.

2018-01-01

In this paper, a method to determine optimal path for flying vehicle to search an object is proposed. Background of the paper is controlling air vehicle to search an object. Optimal path determination is one of the most popular problem in optimization. This paper describe model of control design for a flying vehicle to search an object, and focus on the optimal path that used to search an object. In this paper, optimal control model is used to control flying vehicle to make the vehicle move in optimal path. If the vehicle move in optimal path, then the path to reach the searched object also optimal. The cost Functional is one of the most important things in optimal control design, in this paper the cost functional make the air vehicle can move as soon as possible to reach the object. The axis reference of flying vehicle uses N-E-D (North-East-Down) coordinate system. The result of this paper are the theorems which say that the cost functional make the control optimal and make the vehicle move in optimal path are proved analytically. The other result of this paper also shows the cost functional which used is convex. The convexity of the cost functional is use for guarantee the existence of optimal control. This paper also expose some simulations to show an optimal path for flying vehicle to search an object. The optimization method which used to find the optimal control and optimal path vehicle in this paper is Pontryagin Minimum Principle.

A univariate model of river water nitrate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worrall, F.; Burt, T. P.

1999-01-01

Four time series were taken from three catchments in the North and South of England. The sites chosen included two in predominantly agricultural catchments, one at the tidal limit and one downstream of a sewage treatment works. A time series model was constructed for each of these series as a means of decomposing the elements controlling river water nitrate concentrations and to assess whether this approach could provide a simple management tool for protecting water abstractions. Autoregressive (AR) modelling of the detrended and deseasoned time series showed a "memory effect". This memory effect expressed itself as an increase in the winter-summer difference in nitrate levels that was dependent upon the nitrate concentration 12 or 6 months previously. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modelling showed that one of the series contained seasonal, non-stationary elements that appeared as an increasing trend in the winter-summer difference. The ARMA model was used to predict nitrate levels and predictions were tested against data held back from the model construction process - predictions gave average percentage errors of less than 10%. Empirical modelling can therefore provide a simple, efficient method for constructing management models for downstream water abstraction.

Control of vortex on a non-slender delta wing by a nanosecond pulse surface dielectric barrier discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guang-yin; Li, Ying-hong; Liang, Hua; Han, Meng-hu; Hua, Wei-zhuo

2015-01-01

Wind tunnel experiments are conducted for improving the aerodynamic performance of delta wing using a leading-edge pulsed nanosecond dielectric barrier discharge (NS-DBD). The whole effects of pulsed NS-DBD on the aerodynamic performance of the delta wing are studied by balanced force measurements. Pressure measurements and particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements are conducted to investigate the formation of leading-edge vortices affected by the pulsed NS-DBD, compared to completely stalled flow without actuation. Various pulsed actuation frequencies of the plasma actuator are examined with the freestream velocity up to 50 m/s. Stall has been delayed substantially and significant shifts in the aerodynamic forces can be achieved at the post-stall regions when the actuator works at the optimum reduced frequency of F + = 2. The upper surface pressure measurements show that the largest change of static pressure occurs at the forward part of the wing at the stall region. The time-averaged flow pattern obtained from the PIV measurement shows that flow reattachment is promoted with excitation, and a vortex flow pattern develops. The time-averaged locations of the secondary separation line and the center of the vortical region both move outboard with excitation.

Free and controlled motion of a body with a moving internal mass through a fluid in the presence of circulation around the body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vetchanin, E. V.; Kilin, A. A.

2016-01-01

The free and controlled motion of an arbitrary two-dimensional body with a moving internal mass and constant circulation around the body in an ideal fluid is studied. Bifurcation analysis of the free motion is performed (under the condition of a fixed internal mass). It is shown that the body can be moved to a given point by varying the position of the internal mass. Some problems related to the presence of a nonzero drift of the body with a fixed internal mass are noted.

How Do Changes in Speed Affect the Perception of Duration?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, William J.

2011-01-01

Six experiments investigated how changes in stimulus speed influence subjective duration. Participants saw rotating or translating shapes in three conditions: constant speed, accelerating motion, and decelerating motion. The distance moved and average speed were the same in all three conditions. In temporal judgment tasks, the constant-speed…

Unpacking the "Black Box" of Social Programs and Policies: Introduction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solmeyer, Anna R.; Constance, Nicole

2015-01-01

Traditionally, evaluation has primarily tried to answer the question "Does a program, service, or policy work?" Recently, more attention is given to questions about variation in program effects and the mechanisms through which program effects occur. Addressing these kinds of questions requires moving beyond assessing average program…

Tax Breaks for Law Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Button, Alan L.

1981-01-01

A guide to federal income tax law as it affects law students is presented. Some costs that may constitute valuable above-the-line deductions are identified: moving expenses, educational expenses, job-seeking expenses, and income averaging. Available from Washington and Lee University School of Law, Lexington, VA 24450, $5.50 sc) (MLW)

Alabama's Education Report Card, 2009-2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alabama Department of Education, 2011

2011-01-01

In a more consistent and viable manner than ever before, education in Alabama is moving toward its ultimate goal of providing every student with a quality education, thereby preparing them for work, college, and life after high school. Alabama's graduation rates from 2002 to 2008 increased significantly, tripling the national average increase and…

Moving toward climate-informed agricultural decision support - can we use PRISM data for more than just monthly averages?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Decision support systems/models for agriculture are varied in target application and complexity, ranging from simple worksheets to near real-time forecast systems requiring significant computational and manpower resources. Until recently, most such decision support systems have been constructed with...

Moving Average Models with Bivariate Exponential and Geometric Distributions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

ordinary time series and of point processes. Developments in Statistics, Vol. 1, P.R. Krishnaiah , ed. Academic Press, New York. [9] Esary, J.D. and...valued and discrete - valued time series with ARMA correlation structure. Multivariate Analysis V, P.R. Krishnaiah , ed. North-Holland. 151-166. [28

A MOVING AVERAGE BAYESIAN MODEL FOR SPATIAL SURFACE AND COVERAGE PREDICTION FROM ENVIRONMENTAL POINT-SOURCE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

This paper addresses the general problem of estimating at arbitrary locations the value of an unobserved quantity that varies over space, such as ozone concentration in air or nitrate concentrations in surface groundwater, on the basis of approximate measurements of the quantity ...

On the Nature of SEM Estimates of ARMA Parameters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamaker, Ellen L.; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2002-01-01

Reexamined the nature of structural equation modeling (SEM) estimates of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, replicated the simulation experiments of P. Molenaar, and examined the behavior of the log-likelihood ratio test. Simulation studies indicate that estimates of ARMA parameters observed with SEM software are identical to those…

A Computer Program for the Generation of ARIMA Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Samuel B.; Noles, Keith O.

1977-01-01

The autoregressive integrated moving averages model (ARIMA) has been applied to time series data in psychological and educational research. A program is described that generates ARIMA data of a known order. The program enables researchers to explore statistical properties of ARIMA data and simulate systems producing time dependent observations.…

The Mathematical Analysis of Style: A Correlation-Based Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oppenheim, Rosa

1988-01-01

Examines mathematical models of style analysis, focusing on the pattern in which literary characteristics occur. Describes an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) for predicting sentence length in different works by the same author and comparable works by different authors. This technique is valuable in characterizing stylistic…

Inhalant Use among Indiana School Children, 1991-2004

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ding, Kele; Torabi, Mohammad R.; Perera, Bilesha; Jun, Mi Kyung; Jones-McKyer, E. Lisako

2007-01-01

Objective: To examine the prevalence and trend of inhalant use among Indiana public school students. Methods: The Alcohol, Tobacco, and Other Drug Use among Indiana Children and Adolescents surveys conducted annually between 1991 and 2004 were reanalyzed using 2-way moving average, Poisson regression, and ANOVA tests. Results: The prevalence had…

Average pollutant concentration in soil profile simulated with Convective-Dispersive Equation. Model and Manual

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Different parts of soil solution move with different velocities, and therefore chemicals are leached gradually from soil with infiltrating water. Solute dispersivity is the soil parameter characterizing this phenomenon. To characterize the dispersivity of soil profile at field scale, it is desirable...

A review of metropolitan area early deployment plans and congestion management systems for the development of intelligent transportation systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The three-quarter moving composite price index is the weighted average of the indices for three consecutive quarters. The Composite Bid Price Index is composed of six indicator items: common excavation, to indicate the price trend for all roadway exc...

The Choice of Spatial Interpolation Method Affects Research Conclusions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eludoyin, A. O.; Ijisesan, O. S.; Eludoyin, O. M.

2017-12-01

Studies from developing countries using spatial interpolations in geographical information systems (GIS) are few and recent. Many of the studies have adopted interpolation procedures including kriging, moving average or Inverse Weighted Average (IDW) and nearest point without the necessary recourse to their uncertainties. This study compared the results of modelled representations of popular interpolation procedures from two commonly used GIS software (ILWIS and ArcGIS) at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Data used were concentrations of selected biochemical variables (BOD5, COD, SO4, NO3, pH, suspended and dissolved solids) in Ere stream at Ayepe-Olode, in the southwest Nigeria. Water samples were collected using a depth-integrated grab sampling approach at three locations (upstream, downstream and along a palm oil effluent discharge point in the stream); four stations were sited along each location (Figure 1). Data were first subjected to examination of their spatial distributions and associated variogram variables (nugget, sill and range), using the PAleontological STatistics (PAST3), before the mean values were interpolated in selected GIS software for the variables using each of kriging (simple), moving average and nearest point approaches. Further, the determined variogram variables were substituted with the default values in the selected software, and their results were compared. The study showed that the different point interpolation methods did not produce similar results. For example, whereas the values of conductivity was interpolated to vary as 120.1 - 219.5 µScm-1 with kriging interpolation, it varied as 105.6 - 220.0 µScm-1 and 135.0 - 173.9µScm-1 with nearest point and moving average interpolations, respectively (Figure 2). It also showed that whereas the computed variogram model produced the best fit lines (with least associated error value, Sserror) with Gaussian model, the Spherical model was assumed default for all the distributions in the software, such that the value of nugget was assumed as 0.00, when it was rarely so (Figure 3). The study concluded that interpolation procedures may affect decisions and conclusions on modelling inferences.

Cloud motion in relation to the ambient wind field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Scoggins, J. R.

1975-01-01

Trajectories of convective clouds were computed from a mathematical model and compared with trajectories observed by radar. The ambient wind field was determined from the AVE IIP data. The model includes gradient, coriolis, drag, lift, and lateral forces. The results show that rotational effects may account for large differences between the computed and observed trajectories and that convective clouds may move 10 to 20 degrees to the right or left of the average wind vector and at speeds 5 to 10 m/sec faster or slower than the average ambient wind speed.

Finding the average speed of a light-emitting toy car with a smartphone light sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapucu, Serkan

2017-07-01

This study aims to demonstrate how the average speed of a light-emitting toy car may be determined using a smartphone’s light sensor. The freely available Android smartphone application, ‘AndroSensor’, was used for the experiment. The classroom experiment combines complementary physics knowledge of optics and kinematics to find the average speed of a moving object. The speed of the toy car is found by determining the distance between the light-emitting toy car and the smartphone, and the time taken to travel these distances. To ensure that the average speed of the toy car calculated with the help of the AndroSensor was correct, the average speed was also calculated by analyzing video-recordings of the toy car. The resulting speeds found with these different methods were in good agreement with each other. Hence, it can be concluded that reliable measurements of the average speed of light-emitting objects can be determined with the help of the light sensor of an Android smartphone.

Relative distance between tracers as a measure of diffusivity within moving aggregates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pönisch, Wolfram; Zaburdaev, Vasily

2018-02-01

Tracking of particles, be it a passive tracer or an actively moving bacterium in the growing bacterial colony, is a powerful technique to probe the physical properties of the environment of the particles. One of the most common measures of particle motion driven by fluctuations and random forces is its diffusivity, which is routinely obtained by measuring the mean squared displacement of the particles. However, often the tracer particles may be moving in a domain or an aggregate which itself experiences some regular or random motion and thus masks the diffusivity of tracers. Here we provide a method for assessing the diffusivity of tracer particles within mobile aggregates by measuring the so-called mean squared relative distance (MSRD) between two tracers. We provide analytical expressions for both the ensemble and time averaged MSRD allowing for direct identification of diffusivities from experimental data.

Laser ablation for the synthesis of carbon nanotubes

DOEpatents

Holloway, Brian C; Eklund, Peter C; Smith, Michael W; Jordan, Kevin C; Shinn, Michelle

2012-11-27

Single walled carbon nanotubes are produced in a novel apparatus by the laser-induced ablation of moving carbon target. The laser used is of high average power and ultra-fast pulsing. According to various preferred embodiments, the laser produces and output above about 50 watts/cm.sup.2 at a repetition rate above about 15 MHz and exhibits a pulse duration below about 10 picoseconds. The carbon, carbon/catalyst target and the laser beam are moved relative to one another and a focused flow of "side pumped", preheated inert gas is introduced near the point of ablation to minimize or eliminate interference by the ablated plume by removal of the plume and introduction of new target area for incidence with the laser beam. When the target is moved relative to the laser beam, rotational or translational movement may be imparted thereto, but rotation of the target is preferred.

Laser ablation for the synthesis of carbon nanotubes

DOEpatents

Holloway, Brian C.; Eklund, Peter C.; Smith, Michael W.; Jordan, Kevin C.; Shinn, Michelle

2010-04-06

Single walled carbon nanotubes are produced in a novel apparatus by the laser-induced ablation of moving carbon target. The laser used is of high average power and ultra-fast pulsing. According to various preferred embodiments, the laser produces an output above about 50 watts/cm.sup.2 at a repetition rate above about 15 MHz and exhibits a pulse duration below about 10 picoseconds. The carbon, carbon/catalyst target and the laser beam are moved relative to one another and a focused flow of "side pumped", preheated inert gas is introduced near the point of ablation to minimize or eliminate interference by the ablated plume by removal of the plume and introduction of new target area for incidence with the laser beam. When the target is moved relative to the laser beam, rotational or translational movement may be imparted thereto, but rotation of the target is preferred.

Laser ablation for the synthesis of carbon nanotubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, Brian C. (Inventor); Eklund, Peter C. (Inventor); Smith, Michael W. (Inventor); Jordan, Kevin C. (Inventor); Shinn, Michelle (Inventor)

2010-01-01

Single walled carbon nanotubes are produced in a novel apparatus by the laser-induced ablation of moving carbon target. The laser used is of high average power and ultra-fast pulsing. According to various preferred embodiments, the laser produces an output above about 50 watts/cm.sup.2 at a repetition rate above about 15 MHz and exhibits a pulse duration below about 10 picoseconds. The carbon, carbon/catalyst target and the laser beam are moved relative to one another and a focused flow of side pumped, preheated inert gas is introduced near the point of ablation to minimize or eliminate interference by the ablated plume by removal of the plume and introduction of new target area for incidence with the laser beam. When the target is moved relative to the laser beam, rotational or translational movement may be imparted thereto, but rotation of the target is preferred.

Laser ablation for the synthesis of carbon nanotubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, Brian C. (Inventor); Eklund, Peter C. (Inventor); Smith, Michael W. (Inventor); Jordan, Kevin C. (Inventor); Shinn, Michelle (Inventor)

2012-01-01

Single walled carbon nanotubes are produced in a novel apparatus by the laser-induced ablation of moving carbon target. The laser used is of high average power and ultra-fast pulsing. According to various preferred embodiments, the laser produces and output above about 50 watts/cm.sup.2 at a repetition rate above about 15 MHz and exhibits a pulse duration below about 10 picoseconds. The carbon, carbon/catalyst target and the laser beam are moved relative to one another and a focused flow of "side pumped", preheated inert gas is introduced near the point of ablation to minimize or eliminate interference by the ablated plume by removal of the plume and introduction of new target area for incidence with the laser beam. When the target is moved relative to the laser beam, rotational or translational movement may be imparted thereto, but rotation of the target is preferred.

Effects of weather anomalies on the intellectual performance: Chess mistakes of the world top-ranked players

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mika, J.; Verőci, Zs.; Fülöp, A.; Hirsch, T.; Dúll, A.

2009-04-01

Weather disturbances like fronts, influence human biorhythm, our biological balance becomes manipulated, and adaptation mechanisms are impaired. Our working hypothesis is that even the best chess players of the world are not exceptions from this rule. As their movements on the chess board, as well as the best possible ones, if they missed to make, are already assessed by computers objectively, we can use this game as a model of intellectual performance. By the date of the Abstract edition, 580 wrong chess moves were selected with the threshold of over 1/3 peasant to be lost. I.e. this is the minimum difference between the assessment of the positions after the best possible and the really performed move. (Obviously, all moves both sides in ca. the same number of games were checked, i.e. over 35,000 moves were assessed.) For assessing the moves, the most popular database is MegaDatabase 2006 (ChessBase- Hamburg), Chess Informant Expert from Chess Informant Beograd and the program ChessBase 9.0 together with the engines Fritz 10, Rybka 2.3, Junior 10. First of all the World Chess Champions, Karpov, Kasparov, Kramnik and Anand were examined played in the traditional big chess tournaments, category 19th and more (average rating more the 2701 Elo-points). We further selected the games by the top-ranked players of the world between 2005 and 2008. This selection is explained by the likely fact that they make the less wrong moves for simply the lack of chess understanding, moreover, as full professionals, they allow the minimum of non-weather disturbing circumstances (e.g. imperfect sleeping before the game, etc.). Their moves were selected as (i) very wrong move with more than 3.0 differences, (i.e. unforced loss of a knight, or a bishop, (ii) very weak move with an assessment of 1.0-3.0, (i.e. unforced loss between one peasant and one bishop/knight) and (iii) weak move with less than 1.0 assessment of the passed chance, or unforced loss of less than one peasant. These new data on mental behavior are statistically compared to a common set of diurnal meteorological parameters, including various near-surface and lower troposphere temperature values, sea-level pressures, relative topographies, precipitation amount and existence (duration) and wind speed. The data and the aerologic fields are retrieved from the ECMWF ERA-40 (until 2002) and ECMWF operational analysis (after 2002) for the date and site of the individual mistakes. According to our preliminary results, the wrong moves fall to the lower or higher than average parts of the diurnal mean temperature distribution. Even if we should be careful because of the well known bi-modal distribution of the temperature (if not performing any seasonal correction), but, even after considering these differences the best players make more frequent mistakes in case of higher or lower than normal temperature situations. Another preliminary experience is that decreasing tendency of the RT850/500 hPa relative topography also indicates increase of wrong and very wrong moves. After performing this analysis, the result will be compared to the better known empirical paradigms of medical meteorology and experimental psychology.

THE SEDIMENTATION PROPERTIES OF THE SKIN-SENSITIZING ANTIBODIES OF RAGWEED-SENSITIVE PATIENTS

PubMed Central

Andersen, Burton R.; Vannier, Wilton E.

1964-01-01

The sedimentation coefficients of the skin-sensitizing antibodies to ragweed were evaluated by the moving partition cell method and the sucrose density gradient method. The most reliable results were obtained by sucrose density gradient ultracentrifugation which showed that the major portion of skin-sensitizing antibodies to ragweed sediment with an average value of 7.7S (7.4 to 7.9S). This is about one S unit faster than γ-globulins (6.8S). The data from the moving partition cell method are in agreement with these results. Our studies failed to demonstrate heterogeneity of the skin-sensitizing antibodies with regard to sedimentation rate. PMID:14194391

Long term effects of self-determination theory and motivational interviewing in a web-based physical activity intervention: randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Friederichs, Stijn A H; Oenema, Anke; Bolman, Catherine; Lechner, Lilian

2015-08-18

Our main objective in the current study was to evaluate the long-term effectiveness (12 months from baseline) of I Move (a web-based computer tailored physical activity intervention, based on self-determination theory and motivational interviewing). To this end, we compared I Move to a web-based computer tailored physical activity intervention based on traditional health behavior theories (Active Plus), and to a no-intervention control group. As a secondary objective, the present study aimed to identify participant characteristics that moderate the long term effects of I Move and Active Plus. A randomized controlled trial was conducted, comparing three research conditions: 1) the I Move condition, participants in this condition received I Move; 2) the Active Plus condition, participants in this condition received Active Plus; 3) the control condition; participants in this condition received no intervention and were placed on a waiting list. Main outcome measures were weekly minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity and weekly days with minimal 30 min of physical activity. All measurements were taken by web-based questionnaires via the study website. Intervention effects were analyzed using multilevel linear regression analyses. At 12 months from baseline, I Move was found to be effective in increasing weekly minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (ES = .13), while Active Plus was not. In contrast, Active Plus was found to be effective in increasing weekly days with ≥ 30 min PA at 12 months (ES = .11), while I Move was not. No moderators of the effects of I Move were found. The results suggest that web-based computer tailored physical activity interventions might best include elements based on both self-determination theory/motivational interviewing and traditional health behavioral theories. To be more precise, it is arguable that the focus of the theoretical foundations, used in new web-based PA interventions should depend on the intended program outcome. In order to draw firm conclusions, however, more research on the effects of self-determination theory and motivational interviewing in web-based physical activity promotion is needed. Dutch Trial Register NTR4129.

Toward brain-computer interface based wheelchair control utilizing tactually-evoked event-related potentials

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background People with severe disabilities, e.g. due to neurodegenerative disease, depend on technology that allows for accurate wheelchair control. For those who cannot operate a wheelchair with a joystick, brain-computer interfaces (BCI) may offer a valuable option. Technology depending on visual or auditory input may not be feasible as these modalities are dedicated to processing of environmental stimuli (e.g. recognition of obstacles, ambient noise). Herein we thus validated the feasibility of a BCI based on tactually-evoked event-related potentials (ERP) for wheelchair control. Furthermore, we investigated use of a dynamic stopping method to improve speed of the tactile BCI system. Methods Positions of four tactile stimulators represented navigation directions (left thigh: move left; right thigh: move right; abdomen: move forward; lower neck: move backward) and N = 15 participants delivered navigation commands by focusing their attention on the desired tactile stimulus in an oddball-paradigm. Results Participants navigated a virtual wheelchair through a building and eleven participants successfully completed the task of reaching 4 checkpoints in the building. The virtual wheelchair was equipped with simulated shared-control sensors (collision avoidance), yet these sensors were rarely needed. Conclusion We conclude that most participants achieved tactile ERP-BCI control sufficient to reliably operate a wheelchair and dynamic stopping was of high value for tactile ERP classification. Finally, this paper discusses feasibility of tactile ERPs for BCI based wheelchair control. PMID:24428900

Control of self-motion in dynamic fluids: fish do it differently from bees.

PubMed

Scholtyssek, Christine; Dacke, Marie; Kröger, Ronald; Baird, Emily

2014-05-01

To detect and avoid collisions, animals need to perceive and control the distance and the speed with which they are moving relative to obstacles. This is especially challenging for swimming and flying animals that must control movement in a dynamic fluid without reference from physical contact to the ground. Flying animals primarily rely on optic flow to control flight speed and distance to obstacles. Here, we investigate whether swimming animals use similar strategies for self-motion control to flying animals by directly comparing the trajectories of zebrafish (Danio rerio) and bumblebees (Bombus terrestris) moving through the same experimental tunnel. While moving through the tunnel, black and white patterns produced (i) strong horizontal optic flow cues on both walls, (ii) weak horizontal optic flow cues on both walls and (iii) strong optic flow cues on one wall and weak optic flow cues on the other. We find that the mean speed of zebrafish does not depend on the amount of optic flow perceived from the walls. We further show that zebrafish, unlike bumblebees, move closer to the wall that provides the strongest visual feedback. This unexpected preference for strong optic flow cues may reflect an adaptation for self-motion control in water or in environments where visibility is limited. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Design and control of a 3-DOF rehabilitation robot for forearm and wrist.

PubMed

Lincong Luo; Liang Peng; Zengguang Hou; Weiqun Wang

2017-07-01

This paper presents a 3-DOF compact rehabilitation robot, involving mechanical structure design, control system design and gravity compensation analysis. The robot can simultaneously provide assistance for pronation/supination(P/S), flexion/extension(F/E) and adduction/abduction(A/A) joints rehabilitation training. The P/S and F/E joints are designed to be driven by cable transmission to gain a high backdrivability, and an adjustment plate is adopted to decrease the distance between the rotation axis of F/E joint of the human wrist and the robot. In addition, gravity compensation is considered to offset the impact of self-gravity on the performance of the controller. A "moving window" control strategy based on impedance control is proposed and implemented on the robot. A comparison between the "moving window" control and classical impedance control indicates that the former has more potential to stimulate the voluntary efforts of the participant, and has a less limitation moving in a fixed reference trajectory. Meanwhile, the results also validate the feasibility and safety of the wrist robot system.

The effect of display movement angle, indicator type and display location on control/display stereotype strength.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Errol R; Chan, Alan H S

2017-08-01

Much research on stereotype strength relating display and control movements for displays moving in the vertical or horizontal directions has been reported. Here we report effects of display movement angle, where the display moves at angles (relative to the vertical) of between 0° and 180°. The experiment used six different controls, four display locations relative to the operator and three types of indicator. Indicator types were included because of the strong effects of the 'scale-side principle' that are variable with display angle. A directional indicator had higher stereotype strength than a neutral indicator, and showed an apparent reversal in control/display stereotype direction beyond an angle of 90°. However, with a neutral indicator this control reversal was not present. Practitioner Summary: The effects of display moving at angles other than the four cardinal directions, types of control, location of display and types of indicator are investigated. Indicator types (directional and neutral) have an effect on stereotype strength and may cause an apparent control reversal with change of display movement angle.

Orifice plate for controlling solids flow, methods of use thereof and articles comprising the same

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jukkola, Glen D.; Teigen, Bard C.

Disclosed herein is an orifice plate comprising one or more plates having orifices disposed therein; the orifices being operative to permit the flow of solids from a moving bed heat exchanger to a solids flow control system; where the orifice plate is downstream of a tube bundle of the moving bed heat exchanger and upstream of the solids flow control system and wherein the orifice plate is operative to evenly distribute the flow of solids in the solids flow control system.

Surface controlled blade stabilizer

DOEpatents

Russell, Larry R.

1983-01-01

Drill string stabilizer apparatus, controllable to expand and retract entirely from the surface by control of drill string pressure, wherein increase of drill string pressure from the surface closes a valve to create a piston means which is moved down by drill string pressure to expand the stabilizer blades, said valve being opened and the piston moving upward upon reduction of drill string pressure to retract the stabilizer blades. Upward and downward movements of the piston and an actuator sleeve therebelow are controlled by a barrel cam acting between the housing and the actuator sleeve.

Order of events matter: comparing discrete models for optimal control of species augmentation.

PubMed

Bodine, Erin N; Gross, Louis J; Lenhart, Suzanne

2012-01-01

We investigate optimal timing of augmentation of an endangered/threatened species population in a target region by moving individuals from a reserve or captive population. This is formulated as a discrete-time optimal control problem in which augmentation occurs once per time period over a fixed number of time periods. The population model assumes the Allee effect growth functions in both target and reserve populations and the control objective is to maximize the target and reserve population sizes over the time horizon while accounting for costs of augmentation. Two possible orders of events are considered for different life histories of the species relative to augmentation time: move individuals either before or after population growth occurs. The control variable is the proportion of the reserve population to be moved to the target population. We develop solutions and illustrate numerical results which indicate circumstances for which optimal augmentation strategies depend upon the order of events.

Designs and Algorithms to Map Eye Tracking Data with Dynamic Multielement Moving Objects.

PubMed

Kang, Ziho; Mandal, Saptarshi; Crutchfield, Jerry; Millan, Angel; McClung, Sarah N

2016-01-01

Design concepts and algorithms were developed to address the eye tracking analysis issues that arise when (1) participants interrogate dynamic multielement objects that can overlap on the display and (2) visual angle error of the eye trackers is incapable of providing exact eye fixation coordinates. These issues were addressed by (1) developing dynamic areas of interests (AOIs) in the form of either convex or rectangular shapes to represent the moving and shape-changing multielement objects, (2) introducing the concept of AOI gap tolerance (AGT) that controls the size of the AOIs to address the overlapping and visual angle error issues, and (3) finding a near optimal AGT value. The approach was tested in the context of air traffic control (ATC) operations where air traffic controller specialists (ATCSs) interrogated multiple moving aircraft on a radar display to detect and control the aircraft for the purpose of maintaining safe and expeditious air transportation. In addition, we show how eye tracking analysis results can differ based on how we define dynamic AOIs to determine eye fixations on moving objects. The results serve as a framework to more accurately analyze eye tracking data and to better support the analysis of human performance.

Designs and Algorithms to Map Eye Tracking Data with Dynamic Multielement Moving Objects

PubMed Central

Mandal, Saptarshi

2016-01-01

Design concepts and algorithms were developed to address the eye tracking analysis issues that arise when (1) participants interrogate dynamic multielement objects that can overlap on the display and (2) visual angle error of the eye trackers is incapable of providing exact eye fixation coordinates. These issues were addressed by (1) developing dynamic areas of interests (AOIs) in the form of either convex or rectangular shapes to represent the moving and shape-changing multielement objects, (2) introducing the concept of AOI gap tolerance (AGT) that controls the size of the AOIs to address the overlapping and visual angle error issues, and (3) finding a near optimal AGT value. The approach was tested in the context of air traffic control (ATC) operations where air traffic controller specialists (ATCSs) interrogated multiple moving aircraft on a radar display to detect and control the aircraft for the purpose of maintaining safe and expeditious air transportation. In addition, we show how eye tracking analysis results can differ based on how we define dynamic AOIs to determine eye fixations on moving objects. The results serve as a framework to more accurately analyze eye tracking data and to better support the analysis of human performance. PMID:27725830

Research on measurement method of optical camouflage effect of moving object

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Juntang; Xu, Weidong; Qu, Yang; Cui, Guangzhen

2016-10-01

Camouflage effectiveness measurement as an important part of the camouflage technology, which testing and measuring the camouflage effect of the target and the performance of the camouflage equipment according to the tactical and technical requirements. The camouflage effectiveness measurement of current optical band is mainly aimed at the static target which could not objectively reflect the dynamic camouflage effect of the moving target. This paper synthetical used technology of dynamic object detection and camouflage effect detection, the digital camouflage of the moving object as the research object, the adaptive background update algorithm of Surendra was improved, a method of optical camouflage effect detection using Lab-color space in the detection of moving-object was presented. The binary image of moving object is extracted by this measurement technology, in the sequence diagram, the characteristic parameters such as the degree of dispersion, eccentricity, complexity and moment invariants are constructed to construct the feature vector space. The Euclidean distance of moving target which through digital camouflage was calculated, the results show that the average Euclidean distance of 375 frames was 189.45, which indicated that the degree of dispersion, eccentricity, complexity and moment invariants of the digital camouflage graphics has a great difference with the moving target which not spray digital camouflage. The measurement results showed that the camouflage effect was good. Meanwhile with the performance evaluation module, the correlation coefficient of the dynamic target image range 0.1275 from 0.0035, and presented some ups and down. Under the dynamic condition, the adaptability of target and background was reflected. In view of the existing infrared camouflage technology, the next step, we want to carry out the camouflage effect measurement technology of the moving target based on infrared band.

Contrast and assimilation in motion perception and smooth pursuit eye movements.

PubMed

Spering, Miriam; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2007-09-01

The analysis of visual motion serves many different functions ranging from object motion perception to the control of self-motion. The perception of visual motion and the oculomotor tracking of a moving object are known to be closely related and are assumed to be controlled by shared brain areas. We compared perceived velocity and the velocity of smooth pursuit eye movements in human observers in a paradigm that required the segmentation of target object motion from context motion. In each trial, a pursuit target and a visual context were independently perturbed simultaneously to briefly increase or decrease in speed. Observers had to accurately track the target and estimate target speed during the perturbation interval. Here we show that the same motion signals are processed in fundamentally different ways for perception and steady-state smooth pursuit eye movements. For the computation of perceived velocity, motion of the context was subtracted from target motion (motion contrast), whereas pursuit velocity was determined by the motion average (motion assimilation). We conclude that the human motion system uses these computations to optimally accomplish different functions: image segmentation for object motion perception and velocity estimation for the control of smooth pursuit eye movements.

Improving Dorsal Stream Function in Dyslexics by Training Figure/Ground Motion Discrimination Improves Attention, Reading Fluency, and Working Memory.

PubMed

Lawton, Teri

2016-01-01

There is an ongoing debate about whether the cause of dyslexia is based on linguistic, auditory, or visual timing deficits. To investigate this issue three interventions were compared in 58 dyslexics in second grade (7 years on average), two targeting the temporal dynamics (timing) of either the auditory or visual pathways with a third reading intervention (control group) targeting linguistic word building. Visual pathway training in dyslexics to improve direction-discrimination of moving test patterns relative to a stationary background (figure/ground discrimination) significantly improved attention, reading fluency, both speed and comprehension, phonological processing, and both auditory and visual working memory relative to controls, whereas auditory training to improve phonological processing did not improve these academic skills significantly more than found for controls. This study supports the hypothesis that faulty timing in synchronizing the activity of magnocellular with parvocellular visual pathways is a fundamental cause of dyslexia, and argues against the assumption that reading deficiencies in dyslexia are caused by phonological deficits. This study demonstrates that visual movement direction-discrimination can be used to not only detect dyslexia early, but also for its successful treatment, so that reading problems do not prevent children from readily learning.

The role of visual representation in physics learning: dynamic versus static visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suyatna, Agus; Anggraini, Dian; Agustina, Dina; Widyastuti, Dini

2017-11-01

This study aims to examine the role of visual representation in physics learning and to compare the learning outcomes of using dynamic and static visualization media. The study was conducted using quasi-experiment with Pretest-Posttest Control Group Design. The samples of this research are students of six classes at State Senior High School in Lampung Province. The experimental class received a learning using dynamic visualization and control class using static visualization media. Both classes are given pre-test and post-test with the same instruments. Data were tested with N-gain analysis, normality test, homogeneity test and mean difference test. The results showed that there was a significant increase of mean (N-Gain) learning outcomes (p <0.05) in both experimental and control classes. The averages of students’ learning outcomes who are using dynamic visualization media are significantly higher than the class that obtains learning by using static visualization media. It can be seen from the characteristics of visual representation; each visualization provides different understanding support for the students. Dynamic visual media is more suitable for explaining material related to movement or describing a process, whereas static visual media is appropriately used for non-moving physical phenomena and requires long-term observation.

Can selective migration explain why health is worse in regions with population decline?: A study on migration and self-rated health in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Aletta; Kibele, Eva U B; Verweij, Antonia; van der Lucht, Fons; Janssen, Fanny

2015-12-01

Health disparities between population declining and non-declining areas have received little attention, even though population decline is an established phenomenon in Europe. Selective migration, in which healthier people move out of deprived areas, can possibly explain worse health in declining regions. We assessed whether selective migration can explain the observed worse average health in declining regions as compared with non-declining regions in the Netherlands. Combining data from the Dutch Housing and Living Survey held in 2002 and 2006 with Dutch registry data, we studied the relation between health status and migration in a 5-year period at the individual level by applying logistic regression. In our sample of 130,600 participants, we compared health status, demographic and socioeconomic factors of movers and stayers from declining and non-declining regions. People in the Netherlands who migrated are healthier than those staying behind [odds ratio (OR): 1.80]. This effect is larger for persons moving out of declining regions (OR: 1.76) than those moving into declining regions (OR: 1.47). When controlled for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, these effects are not significant. Moreover, only a small part of the population migrates out of (0.29%) or into (0.25%) declining regions in the course of 5 years. Despite the relation between health and migration, the effect of selective migration on health differences between declining and non-declining regions in the Netherlands is small. Both health and migration are complexly linked with socioeconomic and demographic factors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Electromyographic analysis of trunk and hip muscles during resisted lateral band walking.

PubMed

Youdas, James W; Foley, Brooke M; Kruger, BreAnna L; Mangus, Jessica M; Tortorelli, Alis M; Madson, Timothy J; Hollman, John H

2013-02-01

The purpose of this study was to simultaneously quantify bilateral activation/recruitment levels (% maximum voluntary isometric contraction [MVIC]) for trunk and hip musculature on both moving and stance lower limbs during resisted lateral band walking. Differential electromyographic (EMG) activity was recorded in neutral, internal, and external hip rotation in 21 healthy participants. EMG signals were collected with DE-3.1 double-differential surface electrodes at a sampling frequency of 1,000 Hz during three consecutive lateral steps. Gluteus medius average EMG activation was greater (p = 0.001) for the stance limb (52 SD 18% MVIC) than moving limb (35 SD 16% MVIC). Gluteus maximus EMG activation was greater (p = 0.002) for the stance limb (19 SD 13% MVIC) than moving limb (13 SD 9% MVIC). Erector spinae activation was greater (p = 0.007) in hip internal rotation (30 SD 13% MVIC) than neutral rotation (26 SD 10% MVIC) and the moving limb (31 SD 15% MVIC) was greater (p = 0.039) than the stance limb (23 SD 11% MVIC). Gluteus medius and maximus muscle activation were greater on the stance limb than moving limb during resisted lateral band walking. Therefore, clinicians may wish to consider using the involved limb as the stance limb during resisted lateral band walking exercise.

Multilevel lumbar fusion and postoperative physiotherapy rehabilitation in a patient with persistent pain.

PubMed

Pons, Tracey; Shipton, Edward A

2011-04-01

There are no comparative randomised controlled trials of physiotherapy modalities for chronic low back and radicular pain associated with multilevel fusion. Physiotherapy-based rehabilitation to control pain and improve activation levels for persistent pain following multilevel fusion can be challenging. This is a case report of a 68-year-old man who was referred for physiotherapy intervention 10 months after a multilevel spinal fusion for spinal stenosis. He reported high levels of persistent postoperative pain with minimal activity as a consequence of his pain following the surgery. The physiotherapy interventions consisted of three phases of rehabilitation starting with pool exercise that progressed to land-based walking. These were all combined with transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) that was used consistently for up to 8 hours per day. As outcome measures, daily pain levels and walking distances were charted once the pool programme was completed (in the third phase). Phase progression was determined by shuttle test results. The pain level was correlated with the distance walked using linear regression over a 5-day average. Over a 5-day moving average, the pain level reduced and walking distance increased. The chart of recorded pain level and walking distance showed a trend toward decreased pain with the increased distance walked. In a patient undergoing multilevel lumbar fusion, the combined use of TENS and a progressive walking programme (from pool to land) reduced pain and increased walking distance. This improvement was despite poor medication compliance and a reported high level of postsurgical pain.

Stock markets are not what we think they are: the key roles of cross-ownership and corporate treasury stock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roehner, Bertrand M.

2005-03-01

We describe, document and statistically test three mechanisms by which corporations can influence or even control stock prices: (i) Parent and holding companies wield control over other publicly traded companies. (ii) Through clever management of treasury stock based on buyback programs and stock issuance, stock price fluctuations can be amplified or curbed. The shock of September 11, 2001 is used to test this effect. (iii) Finally, historical evidence shows that there is a close interdependence between the level of stock prices on the one hand and merger and acquisition activity on the other hand: on average, a 10% increase in the number of mergers brings about a 3% increase in the overall level of stock prices. If one adds up buybacks, initial public offerings and takeover transactions, all of which depend upon strategic decisions taken by corporate management, they represent on average 7.2% of the trade on the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1987-2003 (as much as 12% in specific years such as 1988). This perspective, in which the Boards of Directors of major companies “shepherd” the market, offers a natural interpretation of the so-called “herd behavior” observed in stock markets. The traditional view holds that, by driving profit expectations, corporations have an indirect role in shaping the market. In this paper, we suggest that over the last decades they became more and more the direct moving force of stock markets.

Effects of sport expertise on representational momentum during timing control.

PubMed

Nakamoto, Hiroki; Mori, Shiro; Ikudome, Sachi; Unenaka, Satoshi; Imanaka, Kuniyasu

2015-04-01

Sports involving fast visual perception require players to compensate for delays in neural processing of visual information. Memory for the final position of a moving object is distorted forward along its path of motion (i.e., "representational momentum," RM). This cognitive extrapolation of visual perception might compensate for the neural delay in interacting appropriately with a moving object. The present study examined whether experienced batters cognitively extrapolate the location of a fast-moving object and whether this extrapolation is associated with coincident timing control. Nine expert and nine novice baseball players performed a prediction motion task in which a target moved from one end of a straight 400-cm track at a constant velocity. In half of the trials, vision was suddenly occluded when the target reached the 200-cm point (occlusion condition). Participants had to press a button concurrently with the target arrival at the end of the track and verbally report their subjective assessment of the first target-occluded position. Experts showed larger RM magnitude (cognitive extrapolation) than did novices in the occlusion condition. RM magnitude and timing errors were strongly correlated in the fast velocity condition in both experts and novices, whereas in the slow velocity condition, a significant correlation appeared only in experts. This suggests that experts can cognitively extrapolate the location of a moving object according to their anticipation and, as a result, potentially circumvent neural processing delays. This process might be used to control response timing when interacting with moving objects.

I Move: systematic development of a web-based computer tailored physical activity intervention, based on motivational interviewing and self-determination theory

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This article describes the systematic development of the I Move intervention: a web-based computer tailored physical activity promotion intervention, aimed at increasing and maintaining physical activity among adults. This intervention is based on the theoretical insights and practical applications of self-determination theory and motivational interviewing. Methods/design Since developing interventions in a systemically planned way increases the likelihood of effectiveness, we used the Intervention Mapping protocol to develop the I Move intervention. In this article, we first describe how we proceeded through each of the six steps of the Intervention Mapping protocol. After that, we describe the content of the I Move intervention and elaborate on the planned randomized controlled trial. Discussion By integrating self-determination theory and motivational interviewing in web-based computer tailoring, the I Move intervention introduces a more participant-centered approach than traditional tailored interventions. Adopting this approach might enhance computer tailored physical activity interventions both in terms of intervention effectiveness and user appreciation. We will evaluate this in an randomized controlled trial, by comparing the I Move intervention to a more traditional web-based computer tailored intervention. Trial registration NTR4129 PMID:24580802

Open-air sprays for capturing and controlling airborne float coal dust on longwall faces

PubMed Central

Beck, T.W.; Seaman, C.E.; Shahan, M.R.; Mischler, S.E.

2018-01-01

Float dust deposits in coal mine return airways pose a risk in the event of a methane ignition. Controlling airborne dust prior to deposition in the return would make current rock dusting practices more effective and reduce the risk of coal-dust-fueled explosions. The goal of this U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health study is to determine the potential of open-air water sprays to reduce concentrations of airborne float coal dust, smaller than 75 µm in diameter, in longwall face airstreams. This study evaluated unconfined water sprays in a featureless tunnel ventilated at a typical longwall face velocity of 3.6 m/s (700 fpm). Experiments were conducted for two nozzle orientations and two water pressures for hollow cone, full cone, flat fan, air atomizing and hydraulic atomizing spray nozzles. Gravimetric samples show that airborne float dust removal efficiencies averaged 19.6 percent for all sprays under all conditions. The results indicate that the preferred spray nozzle should be operated at high fluid pressures to produce smaller droplets and move more air. These findings agree with past respirable dust control research, providing guidance on spray selection and spray array design in ongoing efforts to control airborne float dust over the entire longwall ventilated opening. PMID:29348700

Discontinuity of Coverage for Medicaid and S-CHIP Children at a Transitional Birthday

PubMed Central

Ketsche, Patricia; Adams, E Kathleen; Snyder, Angela; Zhou, Mei; Minyard, Karen; Kellenberg, Rebecca

2007-01-01

Research Objective To investigate disenrollment from public insurance at the 6-year transitional birthday when eligibility for many children moves from Medicaid to State Children's Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP). Data Sources Data from Georgia's S-CHIP (PeachCare) and Medicaid programs from 2000 to 2002. Study Design The likelihood of dropping public coverage after the reference birthday is modeled for children turning age 6 compared with a control cohort of children turning age 9 controlling for demographic and geographic differences between enrollees. Principal Findings Over 17 percent of 6-year-olds versus only 7 percent of the control cohort dropped coverage. After controlling for other factors (e.g., race/ethnicity, prior enrollment, and geographic region) having lower historical expenditures is predictive of dropping coverage among all children, although the unadjusted effect is stronger among children enrolled in PeachCare before their sixth birthday. Only 1 percent of Medicaid children who remained covered transitioned to PeachCare. Conclusions Turnover at transitional birthdays identifies a common pathway for children into the ranks of the uninsured. Facilitating continuous enrollment would retain in the programs children with lower than average expenditures. This may be one of the more cost effective ways of reducing the number of uninsured children in Georgia. PMID:17995550

Open-air sprays for capturing and controlling airborne float coal dust on longwall faces.

PubMed

Beck, T W; Seaman, C E; Shahan, M R; Mischler, S E

2018-01-01

Float dust deposits in coal mine return airways pose a risk in the event of a methane ignition. Controlling airborne dust prior to deposition in the return would make current rock dusting practices more effective and reduce the risk of coal-dust-fueled explosions. The goal of this U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health study is to determine the potential of open-air water sprays to reduce concentrations of airborne float coal dust, smaller than 75 µm in diameter, in longwall face airstreams. This study evaluated unconfined water sprays in a featureless tunnel ventilated at a typical longwall face velocity of 3.6 m/s (700 fpm). Experiments were conducted for two nozzle orientations and two water pressures for hollow cone, full cone, flat fan, air atomizing and hydraulic atomizing spray nozzles. Gravimetric samples show that airborne float dust removal efficiencies averaged 19.6 percent for all sprays under all conditions. The results indicate that the preferred spray nozzle should be operated at high fluid pressures to produce smaller droplets and move more air. These findings agree with past respirable dust control research, providing guidance on spray selection and spray array design in ongoing efforts to control airborne float dust over the entire longwall ventilated opening.

Triadic Gaze Intervention for Young Children with Physical Disabilities

PubMed Central

Olswang, Lesley B.; Dowden, Patricia; Feuerstein, Julie; Greenslade, Kathryn; Pinder, Gay Lloyd; Fleming, Kandace

2018-01-01

Purpose This randomized controlled study investigated whether a supplemental treatment designed to teach triadic gaze (TG) as a signal of coordinated joint attention (CJA) would yield a significantly greater increase in TG in the experimental versus control group. Method Eighteen 10- to 24-month-old children with severe motor impairments were randomly assigned to an experimental (n=9) or control group (n=9). For approximately 29 sessions over 17 weeks, experimental participants received TG treatment twice weekly with a speech-language pathologist (SLP) in addition to standard practice. Controls received only standard practice from birth-to-three therapists. Coders masked to group assignment coded TG productions with an unfamiliar SLP at baseline, every three weeks during the experimental phase, and at the final measurement session. Results TG increased across groups from baseline to final measurement, with the experimental group showing slightly greater change. Performance trends were examined using experimental phase moving averages. Comparisons revealed significant differences between groups at two time points (at 12 weeks, r= .30, a medium effect and at the end of the phase r=.50, large effect). Conclusion Results suggest the promise of a short-term, focused treatment to teach TG as a behavioral manifestation of CJA to children with severe physical disabilities. PMID:24686825

Smooth Pursuit Eye Movement Deficits in Patients With Whiplash and Neck Pain are Modulated by Target Predictability.

PubMed

Janssen, Malou; Ischebeck, Britta K; de Vries, Jurryt; Kleinrensink, Gert-Jan; Frens, Maarten A; van der Geest, Jos N

2015-10-01

This is a cross-sectional study. The purpose of this study is to support and extend previous observations on oculomotor disturbances in patients with neck pain and whiplash-associated disorders (WADs) by systematically investigating the effect of static neck torsion on smooth pursuit in response to both predictably and unpredictably moving targets using video-oculography. Previous studies showed that in patients with neck complaints, for instance due to WAD, extreme static neck torsion deteriorates smooth pursuit eye movements in response to predictably moving targets compared with healthy controls. Eye movements in response to a smoothly moving target were recorded with video-oculography in a heterogeneous group of 55 patients with neck pain (including 11 patients with WAD) and 20 healthy controls. Smooth pursuit performance was determined while the trunk was fixed in 7 static rotations relative to the head (from 45° to the left to 45° to right), using both predictably and unpredictably moving stimuli. Patients had reduced smooth pursuit gains and smooth pursuit gain decreased due to neck torsion. Healthy controls showed higher gains for predictably moving targets compared with unpredictably moving targets, whereas patients with neck pain had similar gains in response to both types of target movements. In 11 patients with WAD, increased neck torsion decreased smooth pursuit performance, but only for predictably moving targets. Smooth pursuit of patients with neck pain is affected. The previously reported WAD-specific decline in smooth pursuit due to increased neck torsion seems to be modulated by the predictability of the movement of the target. The observed oculomotor disturbances in patients with WAD are therefore unlikely to be induced by impaired neck proprioception alone. 3.

Transformational Communications Architecture for the Unit Operations Center (UOC); Common Aviation Command and Control System (CAC2S); and Command and Control On-the-Move Network, Digital Over-the-Horizon Relay (CONDOR)

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-01

CAPABILITY SETS..............................................................................11 Figure 6. T3 DESIGN ...Radio System (JTRS) in 2008 and beyond. JTRS is being designed to provide a flexible new approach to meet diverse warfighter communications needs...Command and Control On-the-Move Network, Digital Over the Horizon Relay (CoNDOR) The CoNDOR Capability Set is an Architectural Approach designed to

Stationary microfluidics: molecular diagnostic assays by moving magnetic beads through non-moving liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Holger; Carstens, Cornelia; Kuhlmeier, Dirk; Sandetskaya, Natalia; Schröter, Nicole; Zilch, Christian; Gärtner, Claudia

2013-03-01

Commonly, microfluidic devices are based on the movement of fluids. For molecular diagnostics assays which often include steps like PCR, this practically always involves a more or less complicated set of external pumps, valves and liquid controls. In the presented paper, we follow a different approach in which the fluid after sample introduction remains stationary and the main bioactive sample molecules are moved through a chain of reaction compartments which contain the different reagents necessary for the assay. The big advantage of this concept is the lack of any external fluid actuation/control. Results on sample carry-over experiments and complete assays will be given.

Dominion. A game exploring information exploitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hobbs, Jacob Aaron

FlipIt is a game theoretic framework published in 2012[1] to investigate optimal strategies for managing security resources in response to Advanced Persistent Threats. It is a two-player game wherein a resource is controlled by exactly one player at any time. A player may move at any time to capture the resource, incurring a move cost, and is informed of the last time their opponent has moved only upon completing their move. Thus, moves may be wasted and takeover is considered \\stealthy", with regard to the other player. The game is played for an unlimited period of time, and the goalmore » of each player is to maximize the amount of time they are in control of the resource minus their total move cost, normalized by the current length of play. Marten Van Dijk and others[1] provided an analysis of various player strategies and proved optimal results for certain subclasses of players. We extend their work by providing a reformulation of the original game, wherein the optimal player strategies can be solved exactly, rather than only for certain subclasses. We call this reformulation Dominion, and place it within a broader framework of stealthy move games. We de ne Dominion to occur over a nite time scale (from 0 to 1), and give each player a certain number of moves to make within the time frame. Their expected score in this new scenario is the expected amount of time they have control, and the point of the game is to dominate as much of the unit interval as possible. We show how Dominion can be treated as a two player, simultaneous, constant sum, unit square game, where the gradient of the bene t curves for the players are linear and possibly discontinuous. We derive Nash equilibria for a basic version of Dominion, and then further explore the roles of information asymmetry in its variants. We extend these results to FlipIt and other cyber security applications.« less

Effects of whole body vibration training on postural control in older individuals: a 1 year randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Bogaerts, An; Verschueren, Sabine; Delecluse, Christophe; Claessens, Albrecht L; Boonen, Steven

2007-07-01

This randomized controlled trial investigated the effects of a 12 month whole body vibration training program on postural control in healthy older adults. Two hundred and twenty people were randomly assigned to a whole body vibration group (n=94), a fitness group (n=60) or a control group (n=66). The whole body vibration and fitness groups trained three times a week for 1 year. The vibration group performed exercises on a vibration platform and the fitness group performed cardiovascular, strength, balance and stretching exercises. Balance was measured using dynamic computerized posturography at baseline and after 6 and 12 months. Whole body vibration training was associated with reduced falls frequency on a moving platform when vision was disturbed and improvements in the response to toes down rotations at the ankle induced by the moving platform. The fitness group showed reduced falls frequency on the moving surface when vision was disturbed. Thus, whole body vibration training may improve some aspects of postural control in community dwelling older individuals.

Low-cost solar tracking system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, C. G.; Stephens, J. B.

1975-01-01

Smaller heat-collector is moved to stay in focus with the sun, instead of moving reflector. Tracking can be controlled by storing data of predicted solar positions or by applying conventional sun-sensing devices to follow solar movement.

Variability in Pretest-Posttest Correlation Coefficients by Student Achievement Level. NCEE 2011-4033

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cole, Russell; Haimson, Joshua; Perez-Johnson, Irma; May, Henry

2011-01-01

State assessments are increasingly used as outcome measures for education evaluations. The scaling of state assessments produces variability in measurement error, with the conditional standard error of measurement increasing as average student ability moves toward the tails of the achievement distribution. This report examines the variability in…

Wildfire suppression cost forecasts from the US Forest Service

Treesearch

Karen L. Abt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Krista M. Gebert

2009-01-01

The US Forest Service and other land-management agencies seek better tools for nticipating future expenditures for wildfire suppression. We developed regression models for forecasting US Forest Service suppression spending at 1-, 2-, and 3-year lead times. We compared these models to another readily available forecast model, the 10-year moving average model,...

A simple derivation of Lorentz self-force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haque, Asrarul

2014-09-01

We derive the Lorentz self-force for a charged particle in arbitrary non-relativistic motion by averaging the retarded fields. The derivation is simple and at the same time pedagogically accessible. We obtain the radiation reaction for a charged particle moving in a circle. We pin down the underlying concept of mass renormalization.

Running on Empty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Julie

2006-01-01

With the national average cost of diesel fuel hovering around $3 per gallon, school and university administrators face the challenge of compensating their budgets for money lost to the gas tank. Some are playing with numbers, looking at their budgets for ways to move money around and make things work. Others are scouring for places where cost…

Wisconsin's forest resources, 2005

Treesearch

Charles, H. (Hobie) Perry; Gary J. Brand

2006-01-01

The annual forest inventory of Wisconsin continues, and this document reports 2001-05 moving averages for most variables and comparisons between 2000 and 2005 for growth, removals, and mortality. Summary resource tables can be generated through the Forest Inventory Mapmaker website at http://ncrs2.fs.fed.us/4801/fiadb/index. htm. Estimates from this inventory show a...

Rotation in the Dynamic Factor Modeling of Multivariate Stationary Time Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

2001-01-01

Proposes a special rotation procedure for the exploratory dynamic factor model for stationary multivariate time series. The rotation procedure applies separately to each univariate component series of a q-variate latent factor series and transforms such a component, initially represented as white noise, into a univariate moving-average.…

Using Fit Indexes to Select a Covariance Model for Longitudinal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Siwei; Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2012-01-01

This study investigated the performance of fit indexes in selecting a covariance structure for longitudinal data. Data were simulated to follow a compound symmetry, first-order autoregressive, first-order moving average, or random-coefficients covariance structure. We examined the ability of the likelihood ratio test (LRT), root mean square error…

STOCHASTIC INTEGRATION FOR TEMPERED FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN MOTION.

PubMed

Meerschaert, Mark M; Sabzikar, Farzad

2014-07-01

Tempered fractional Brownian motion is obtained when the power law kernel in the moving average representation of a fractional Brownian motion is multiplied by an exponential tempering factor. This paper develops the theory of stochastic integrals for tempered fractional Brownian motion. Along the way, we develop some basic results on tempered fractional calculus.

A Guide for Using Labor Market Data to Improve Student Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aspen Institute, 2013

2013-01-01

Never before has the link between a college education and postgraduate job prospects been more important. College graduates are employed more often and, on average, earn significantly more than those without college degrees. During recent years, as students have moved into a challenging job market, a college education has remained the most…

An efficient estimator to monitor rapidly changing forest conditions

Treesearch

Raymond L. Czaplewski; Michael T. Thompson; Gretchen G. Moisen

2012-01-01

Extensive expanses of forest often change at a slow pace. In this common situation, FIA produces informative estimates of current status with the Moving Average (MA) method and post-stratification with a remotely sensed map of forest-nonforest cover. However, MA "smoothes out" estimates over time, which confounds analyses of temporal trends; and post-...

Opportunities to improve monitoring of temporal trends with FIA panel data

Treesearch

Raymond Czaplewski; Michael Thompson

2009-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program of the Forest Service, Department of Agriculture, is an annual monitoring system for the entire United States. Each year, an independent "panel" of FIA field plots is measured. To improve accuracy, FIA uses the "Moving Average" or "Temporally Indifferent" method to combine estimates from...

26 CFR 1.448-2 - Nonaccrual of certain amounts by service providers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

...-experience method is not allowed. (3) Safe harbor 3: modified Black Motor method. A taxpayer may use a... accounts receivable balance at the end of the current taxable year by a percentage (modified Black Motor... modified Black Motor moving average percentage is computed by dividing the total bad debts sustained...

26 CFR 1.448-2 - Nonaccrual of certain amounts by service providers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

...-experience method is not allowed. (3) Safe harbor 3: modified Black Motor method. A taxpayer may use a... accounts receivable balance at the end of the current taxable year by a percentage (modified Black Motor... modified Black Motor moving average percentage is computed by dividing the total bad debts sustained...

26 CFR 1.448-2 - Nonaccrual of certain amounts by service providers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

...-experience method is not allowed. (3) Safe harbor 3: modified Black Motor method. A taxpayer may use a... accounts receivable balance at the end of the current taxable year by a percentage (modified Black Motor... modified Black Motor moving average percentage is computed by dividing the total bad debts sustained...

26 CFR 1.448-2 - Nonaccrual of certain amounts by service providers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

...-experience method is not allowed. (3) Safe harbor 3: modified Black Motor method. A taxpayer may use a... accounts receivable balance at the end of the current taxable year by a percentage (modified Black Motor... modified Black Motor moving average percentage is computed by dividing the total bad debts sustained...